Booking.com

Booking.com

Favorite Links

Saturday, February 27, 2021

天真的“以为”/拿督刘明

星期六的一大清早,和友人一起快走运动,边走边聊。他说,刚花了两个半小时看完罗胖的跨年演讲,得到的启发是:每当我想以一个过来人的经验对人说教的时候,其实得想想人家让我过来了吗。

元旦假期和几位朋友喝茶聊天,谈起关店潮,提起一年多前撤离马来西亚的香港米其林一星级点心店“添好运”。

其中一位友人认为,添好运之倒闭,最大原因是他们不提供酱料。

添好运高层执着地认为,他们用高质量的食材烹饪出美味可口的点心,食客应该原汁原味地享用才能吃出味道!

但市场上的老饕,又有几个是真正会欣赏原汁原味的食神?

友人说,少了酱料我食之无味, 干脆不去了,反正一星米其林也不过如此!

当然,添好运高层对外的说辞,是马来西亚人以回教徒居多,不懂得欣赏香港点心之美。

你以为呢?




罗胖在总结他的跨年演讲时说,在看待一个现象时,对因果关系的追寻,要保持谦卑!

世界足够复杂,不是一个因果关系能描述的,所以很多结论都经不起考验。

也许每当我们觉得自己找到一个结论时,都应该问自己:你以为你以为的就是你以为的吗?

昨天晚餐的时候在餐厅遇到了朋友和他的公子,朋友说那么巧,我孩子想开店,正打算找你聊聊!

这孩子天资不错,台湾大学毕业回国在父亲店里帮忙,不久前搞了个自动门锁,听说生意很火。

小孩说他想在购物商场先找一个档口卖台湾地瓜球,生意上了轨道再开店,问我意见如何。

我很直白的对他说,你刚毕业,事业也刚起步,应该更加专注在现在的生意上,把它做好做强,因为心在哪里,成绩就在那里。

别以为自己无所不能

做生意从零到一是最艰难的,以你现在的情况,不应该花精力时间来兼顾你不熟悉的东西,更何况零售业并不是你想象的那么简单,租金、薪水、员工、地点每一样都很伤脑筋。

我建议他若将来真想往其他领域包括零售业发展,等本业赚了钱,做个投资人就好,因为每一行的专业和成功都是用匠心和时间堆积出来的!

年轻人有了小确幸很容易犯上罗胖口中“你以为你以为的就是你以为”的通病,一切都那么想当然尔!

话说回头,其实大企业因为自己财大气粗,也经常犯了“你以为”的毛病,以为自己无所不能,结果屡战屡败!

微软谷歌也踢铁板

比尔.盖茨可以说是第一个以软件称霸电脑科技的富豪,后来智慧型手机大行其道,盖茨以为,微软在手机系统上获胜是很自然的事情,因为2008年,谷歌才发布了Android 1.0,而1999年微软已经推出了第一代移动操作系统Windows CE 1.0,这是后来Windows Mobile系统的前身。

但微软操作系统的体验不及iOS和安卓,开发者更愿意为后者开发应用软体,这让苹果和谷歌后来居上。

微软也曾力挽狂澜,2010年推出体验更好的Windows Phone系统,但为时晚矣!

2013年,微软以72亿美元收购诺基亚,也没能挽回失地。2016,微软推出Windows 10 Mobile进行最后挣扎,但也无功而返,并在去年宣布退出手机系统舞台!

另一科技大佬也同样犯了“你以为”的毛病,当然战略上有时免不了。

谷歌自己开发安卓操作系统,他们当然做梦也想拥有自己的智慧型手机,作为安卓盟主,这是理所当然的。

2011年,谷歌以125亿美元的价格收购摩托罗拉,以提振其羽翼未丰的移动设备业务,并希望通过收购摩托罗拉来低御微软和苹果等对安卓发起的专利诉讼。

但摩托罗拉的1.7万专利和7500项申请中的专利的收入,似乎弥补不了手机业务的严重亏损,结果被迫在2014年以29亿美元卖给联想。

结论都经不起考验

我在产品研发生涯当中,犯了“你以为”的例子可多了!

两年前,我们开发了一款给电单车骑士的背包,胸前的肩带有开关键,轻轻一按背包前面的led会闪动,有保护骑士的作用。

我们天真的“以为”这产品会大卖,但最后还是叫好不叫座!

最大的原因是,我们的品牌定位不清楚,我们干嘛去“干涉”电单车市场?

是的,“世界足够复杂,不是一个因果关系能描述的,所以很多结论都经不起考验”:

老王认识了一位中年小龙女,以为自己临老遇到了真爱,为她抛弃相守一辈子的糟糠之妻和一群儿女,最后落得人财两空!

小李在朋友的不断怂恿下,天真的以为自己发现发达捷径,每个月都有超过10%的利息,最后几十万元打了水漂,还欠了一屁股阿窿债!

昨天新官上任的国阵总秘书向首相喊话:现在有了疫苗,不要用疫情作为借口来逃避大选!

无知政客天真地以为,疫苗是无所不能的,为了政治利益,弃人民生命而不顾。

周星驰说:这个地球越来越危险,大家还是回火星去吧!

谁要结伴同行?

退堂!

https://www.enanyang.my/名家专栏/天真的“以为”拿督刘明

老派 vs 新潮/拿督刘明



上个星期的文章刊出后,有读者留言说我的文章很Old school , 他的意思应该是说我思想陈旧腐朽,举的例子都是陈年旧事。

我查了一下此人的背景,如我所料,是一位年轻朋友。

左传曰:天因著作生才子,人不风流枉少年。

这句话的意思是说:人要在年轻,还是个少年的时期,做一些有意义的事情,而不是一味的受限于礼法。

此“风流”,不是你以为的“风流”,意思更接近于有才华而不拘于礼法的意思。

你看,我们几千年前的老祖宗都懂得少年轻狂,我曾经年轻,我当然也懂。

年轻人喜欢离经叛道,但很多事情不曾也没有机会经历过,却自以为才华横溢,不知不觉就犯了上罗胖所言:“你以为你以为的就是你以为的”陷阱。

而我上一期专栏的思维,就是围绕着“你以为”这个课题,借用历史(若谷歌和微软20 年前发生的事能称为历史的话)和自身经验来阐述这论点,怎么就成了老古董old school 了?

现代人读书不求甚解,遇事不追究原因始末就妄下结论,一句old school 就以偏概全,好不潇洒!

Old school泛滥成灾

Old school 这词什么时候流行甚至泛滥成灾已不可考,但似乎很好用。

我自己偶尔也借来开玩笑,来形容那些思想守旧,抱残守缺之人(很惭愧,原来我本身被人归类而不自知!)

最近有几宗颇大的期货询问,我们整班好朋友被一位年轻人大骂old school , 只因我们当中有人坚持要把某些细节弄清楚,以免将来发生争执。

而我们这群朋友当中,有两位是香港上市公司老板,其他人除了我之外,都不是泛泛之辈,在他眼中,我们竟然都腐朽不堪。

现在是一个凡事讲究速成的时代,人们基本上已经失去了耐心,但为求万无一失,动作稍微慢一点,就被归类为落伍old school 。

其实,这些人眼中鄙视的old school 背后,是我们祖宗千百年遗留下来的智慧财产,它们代表着:原则、信念、经验、诚实、善良,尊师重道等美德。

中华民族若失去了这些文化智慧,我们和那些未开发野蛮民族有何区别?

看看去年发生在香港的暴动事件,年轻人大肆破坏公物、满口污言秽语辱骂師长,就是明证!





被标签为old school 的线下实体商店还是大有可为,以前的o2o (offline to online) 线下到线上变成了online to offline 线上到线下,阿里的盒马鲜生就是一例!

线下实体店还是大有可为

和朋友谈起此事,他愤慨地说:这不是old school 或new school 之争,这是个人修养问题,借old school 这课题,企图掩盖自己情商之不足。

最近我有幸成为国际青年商会(JCI)主办的青年创意大赛(CYEA)的评审,接触了非常多的年轻创业才俊,我发觉一个有趣的现象,那些做事踏实、有工匠精神,态度诚恳的人,成就都非常棒!

我其实私底下也认识一些参赛者,他们都是一群好学不倦,非常努力的年轻人。他们有自己的想法,不好高骛远,最重要的是都彬彬有礼,承继了我们的中华传统美德!

我对主办方说,因为他们,我对马来西亚华裔子弟充满希望,假以时日,他们绝对是国家的优秀栋梁!

我印象非常深刻的是一位20多岁的参赛者,他继承的是一家传统的百年老店,祖父辈经营了近一个世纪的家族企业,只卖一种产品--咖啡乌。

在他努力争取下,公司开始售卖其他种类咖啡,业务蒸蒸日上,公司最近也开了一家咖啡馆,教导咖啡爱好者如何品尝咖啡的美味,发扬咖啡文化!

我好奇的问他:如何说服他还健壮的祖父和父亲,让他放手一搏?

平衡传统和现代

他说他花了几年的时间,一点一滴用行动来证明他的能力,他必须在传统和现代找出平衡。

他从不鄙视祖父辈遗留下来的传统智慧,只是他内心非常清楚,空有传统而不创新,最终还是会被时代洪流淘汰的。

他最后用实力和耐心,克服了重重代沟,让这百年老店赋予新的生命!

其实,动辄标签别人old school ,不止没有任何意义,也显得他自己思想狭隘,理由很简单,因为所有事情都是万变不离其宗。

记得当初网际网络以雷霆万钧之势,迅速吞噬了实体经济的大片江山,很多零售业者都非常担心,电商会不会把他们完全击垮。

结果时间证明,被标签为old school 的线下实体商店还是大有可为,虽然经营方式也许有点不同。

以前的o2o (offline to online) 线下到线上变成了online to offline 线上到线下,阿里的盒马鲜生就是一例!

企业勿陷大数据迷思

上一回马来西亚Lazada 总裁周南和我在同一电视节目亮相时,主持人问他,供应商应该如何面对产品同质化,价格太过透明等问题,他的回答非常有见地。

他说:当你的产品和竞争对手相似度高,陷入价格战的时候,唯一的对策就是让自己与众不同!

产品差异化,是避免自己深陷红海的其中一个策略,这是千古不变的定律,谁敢说它old school ?

在此节目里,我们聊起了大数据。主持人问我对大数据的看法,我说其实中小企业不应该堕入大数据的迷思当中,因为数据是一个冷冰冰的东西,它必须累积了数以千万甚至上亿人的消费模式,才能分析出消费者的需求和习惯,再派上用场。

但这是我们中小企业终其一生都不可能达成的任务,所以,我说与其谈new school 的大数据,不如干脆把时间精神用在有温度的old school, 就是crm (客户管理系统)上,让客户感觉到我们的用心。

自媒体时代的今天,阿珠阿花口齿不清荒腔走板都能直播带货,阿狗阿猫满口脏话鱼虾蟹,也卖得吓吓叫!

但我总觉得这种素质不会长久。

我经常鼓励有近30年传统媒体经验,说起话来字正腔圆的好友黄公雋斌,敢敢出来直播带货,甚至开班授徒,他总是犹豫不决。

他近来帮一家电器公司带货,业务屡创新高,上星期更创出一天卖出1亿4000万的纪录,谁与争锋?

功力深厚的old school 主播vs 肤浅幼稚的网红,且看谁能笑到最后。

别只会批评

New school 利用科技,把圆的世界刷平,我们绝对认同!

但科技背后的old school 智慧,才是让它走的更远的原因。

诺基亚的口号称:科技始于人性!

但它也“死于人性”!

后记:我满口old school,看来还真old school。但假如你自认很new school ,别只会批评,行动起来吧,让全世界看看你如何用new school 改变世界!

退堂!

https://www.enanyang.my/名家专栏/老派-vs-新潮拿督刘明

逆境反弹永不言败 你的“逆商”高吗?(上篇) /拿督刘明




攀登者的字典里没有认输两个字。

你的“逆商”高吗?(上篇)

朋友传来一本电子书给我,书名《AQ》(Adversity Quotient,中文译为“逆商”)作者是保罗.史托兹,是一位美国人。

他嘱咐我一定要抽时间看看,我点击链接查看了一下,以为又是一本打鸡血的书,心想算了。

行动管控令期间比较空闲,想起了逆商这本书,心血来潮打开来看看,因为是大陆版,文字虽然生涩,但还是欣然把它跳着看完。

这虽然是一本1997年出版的旧书,24年了但书中的内容历久弥新,我想它还蛮适合在现在这个诸多不确定的氛围下推荐给大家,也许值得你一读再读,搞不好是你在管控令期间突破困境的“武林秘籍”!

这本书很厚实,我除了努力拜读还参考对照了一些有声书,尝试用我的文字来解说,希望大家用一点耐心把这篇文章读完。

因本书重点蛮多,我不想因浓缩而导致内容失衡,所以会分成上下篇来完成。那些有看过或听过此书的人,就当温故知新吧!

我们经常赞一个人的智商(IQ)高,意思是他的智力和敏锐度高于别人,是个典型的“醒目仔”;也有些人喜怒不形于色,遇到事情非常冷静,就是EQ或情商高手。

但你聪明绝顶(智商高)遇事淡定,并不表示你在逆境时能勇往直前,成为最后胜利者。

逆商就是形容一个人面对逆境时的韧性和反弹力,永不言败!

作者以登山比喻人生:他把人分为三种:1)放弃、2)扎营者,以及 3)攀登者。

1)放弃者是那种对人生漫无目标,得过且过之人。

2)扎营者为那些曾经非常努力,但一旦达到某种成就后就停滞不前,或因为某种原因一直达不到自己要求而安于现状。

3)攀登者的字典里没有认输两个字。就像那些攀登珠穆朗玛峰的登山者一样,不畏艰险和大风雪,一心一意只为攻顶!

他们达到预定的目标后,紧接着又会向另一个目标前进,永不服输和松懈下来。

在任何情况下,攀登者的数量一定是和逆境的困难程度成反比,就是逆境越厉害,攀登者的数量会越来越少,就像今天面对疫情带来的冲击,很多人会因此而被淘汰!

这种现象叫做逆境困局!

3层逆境

作者认为,一个人在社会上会面对3层逆境,就是这3层逆境让我们“压历山大”。

1) 社会逆境

有时我们不经意做错一件事,必须面对社会舆论的压力,比如拿督打人事件,这位打人的仁兄肯定压力超大。

或你看到同年龄层的朋友们都结婚了,你连女朋友或男朋友也没有,在社交场合遇到大家双双对对,你说压力不?

2)职场逆境

职场上的人事关系、生意不顺、客户投诉等等,都是职场带来的压力。

3)个人逆境

你的身体健康出问题、失业、离婚、孩子上大学要筹学费等等都带给我们很大的压力!

逆境中错误的选择

在应对逆境的时候我们不小心会走入岔道或钻牛角尖:

1)攀登者变成扎营者

生活的挫折让我们很想放弃,所以我们应当不断地警惕自己,不能因为一点小挫折而停止前进!

2)科技万能

很多人遇到逆境的时候喜欢寄望于科技,希望新的科技能够解决他目前的困境。(这一点我不甚理解)

3)打鸡血

励志行业有240亿美元(960亿令吉)市场,因此催生了很多这类型讲师。

作者认为,这类型的课程犹如一种兴奋剂,与会者在刻意营造的氛围下被刺激得兴奋无比,和众多学员们一起嗨翻天,宗教狂热般的被洗脑。

学员和一群人在一起狂欢了数天后,觉得自己充满斗志,成功在望。这种情况心里学名词叫做“后群体兴奋”!

回归了原始社会之后,受挫折打击了几次,几个星期后信心又归零,于是又开始凑钱上课,希望找回失去的自信,然而老师说这一次是进阶版较高级的课程,学费当然水涨船高。

很多迷信这种成功课程的人花了几十万甚至几百万,有些人因而负债累累,最后甚至搞到公司倒闭!

作者非常反对这些打鸡血课程,认为不只无效,还劳民伤财!

坦白说,从来没有任何一个激励讲师会承认自己打鸡血,也没有学员会觉察自己上的是激励课程,我觉得这不重要,只要你负担得起,加上别偏执狂地以为讲师是救世主那也不碍事。

4)走上无助和无望的循环。

你觉得无助所以无望,你觉得无望所以无助,形成一个死循环,成了心灵癌症,让你完全没有改变的动力!

如何解决这种问题?

它建立在3大支柱之上:

1)认知心理学

认知心理学的本质就是你若想改变你的心里状况,就必须改变你对某些事物的看法,或所谓的认知,而不是去改变不可控的外在事物。

我们有时候不断的被生活残酷的打击,让我们觉得这是一种没办法改变的宿命,完全缺乏掌控感,只好认命。

这种情况心理学叫做“习得性无助”!(我认为应该翻译成“习惯性无助”)

马戏团里的大象为什么被绑在一个小棒子上而不会逃走?因为它从小一只脚就被绑在扎实的小棍子上,屡屡尝试解套但都不成功,从此决定放弃,结果终其一生都被一根小棍子套牢。

认知心理学的另一个重要的理论叫“归因理论”。“归因”就是归咎某些事物形成的原因。

比方说,为什么有些人非常害怕和陌生人说话,原因也许是他从小就被父母灌输陌生人都是骗子。

2)健康新论

就是我们的心理对我们的身体的影响。科学家曾经做过研究,把两组老鼠都注射了癌细胞,关进不同隔间。

一组有一个按钮,只要一按就有食物出来,让老鼠有掌控感;另一组的老鼠完全没有掌控机会,里面和外界发生任何事都和它们无关。

后来研究人员发现,有掌控感的老鼠活得很好,并没有因癌症死掉,但那些没有掌控感的老鼠很快就一命呜呼。

研究人员最后的结论就是:当你用软弱的态度来应对逆境的时候会导致压抑,最后严重影响身体健康!

3)脑科学

我们很多人的迷思是养成一种习惯需要21天,作者对此很不以为然。

后来有一位科学家告诉他有些习惯几乎一瞬间就能养成,比如触摸火炉,因为一模之后,你从此不会再去触摸火炉,根本不需要21天!

当我们学习一样新东西的时候,大脑运作的地方叫大脑皮层。当我们不断运作学习的时候,大脑皮层会发亮。

而我们熟能生巧养成习惯的时候,大脑皮层不亮了,这亮点跑到被大脑皮层覆盖的基底神经节,这个地方就是我们所谓的潜意识。

所以我们要改变一些习惯,或养成一种新的习惯,就必须穿透基底神经节,让亮点跑回大脑皮层,因为以前我们的习惯性动作和思考都是因为基底神经节在运作。

我们不改变因为我们没有意识,所以既然我们觉醒了,我们就能改变。

觉醒就是把基底神经节发生的东西重新调到大脑皮层来,开始建立一个新的习惯。

理论讲完了,下一期讲的是如何测量逆境,只要有方法测量,逆境其实并没有我们想象中的那么可怕!

退堂!

https://www.enanyang.my/名家专栏/逆境反弹永不言败拿督刘明

抗疫三分钟热度等于白干/拿督刘明

去年行动管控令(MCO)解封后,我比较忙于工作,渐渐对家里的花花草草疏于照顾,工作的压力,让我甚至提不起劲看它们一眼。

门前的那一小片草地,开始杂草丛生,更不用说我家后院的树木,简直如年久失修的丛林,惨不忍睹!

邻居们都喜欢用假草覆盖,虽然大热天的时候这仿造品会散发热气,但它胜在不用整天为烦人的杂草疲于奔命,而且常年绿意盎然,省了好多功夫。

搬进这小区也有好几年了,我坚持不用假草,因为我喜欢看大自然的欣欣向荣和双脚踩在草地上的柔软细腻感觉。

但近来工作压力带给我的无力感,让我心生歹念,我竟然动起了铺假草的念头!MCO期间,小区管理不让外人进入,我只好暂时作罢。

星期日的清晨起得较晚,走出门外透透气,院前乱七八糟的杂草突然让我觉得极度碍眼,我二话不说拿起工具除之后快!

MCO 1.0时,我还大言不惭向全世界展示我征服花草树木的乐事,但我的惰性很快就让我之前的胜利打回原形,做事情没有延续性等于白干一场,霎那间的光辉不等于永恒!

前功尽废

我国对抗冠病疫情的方式不也如出一辙?让我们回顾一下历史。

2020年3月16日,大马的冠病确诊病例为138例,当时国盟政府夺权还不到一个月,新上任的首相丹斯里幕尤丁在当晚8点宣布3月18日开始第一轮的MCO。

三位数的确诊病例就果敢采取雷厉风行手段,幕尤丁的这个决定让国盟这个原本名不正言不顺的政权,获得老百姓非常高的民意支持。

5月4日后,较为宽松的管控令如有条件行动管控令(CMCO)和复苏管控令(RMCO),让市场逐渐活络,加上当时政府底气十足拨出2500亿令吉的刺激方案,国盟政府的治国方案其实开始步向正确的道路,虽然很多中小企业已不支倒地,但数量还不至于失控!

随着政府逐步放宽管制,人民的生活开始恢复正常,我身边那些硕果仅存的餐饮业朋友开始蠢蠢欲动,物色新地点,想用他们所剩无多的资金收回失地。

那些服饰行业者也恢复信心,试探性进货希望趁即将到来的农历新年,多多少少弥补一整年下来的低迷业绩。




沙州选始作俑者

9月6日,我国确诊病例62例,为6月初以来新高;大部分即56例新增确诊病例来自沙巴州监狱。

沙巴当时已是超级感染红区,政府并没有为即将到来的州选做好防疫准备。西马政治人物为了助选,一窝蜂涌到沙巴。

9月26日,沙巴州选当天,大马的确诊病例为82例。同一天,卫生总监在他的每日简报上透露,9月27日至10月10日,任何人从沙巴回来都要筛检,且需居家隔离至成绩呈阴性为止。

双重标准

大选过后,西马政治人物陆陆续续班师回朝。10月3日,国防部长回答记者提问时说:“从沙巴回西马的人不需要强制隔离,因为政府没有实施跨州禁令。”

10月1日,我国确诊病例为260例,过后确诊病例就一路攀升至今,甚至冲高至5000多例,这些“政绩”非常明显是国盟政府的双重标准造成!

管控令2.0的致命打击

MCO 2.0前一个星期,我应邀拜访朋友新开的餐厅,地点位于甲洞城市园一家蛮知名的购物中心底层。

我好奇地问:他为什么在这个不确定时刻选择开店?

他说,租金便宜非常吸引人,疫情前要价5万令吉月租,而且很快被人抢走,如今业主只租1万5000令吉,我想现在不租下来,“苏州过后无艇搭”,反正政府说不会再封城!

一个星期后,政府决定重新实施行管令MCO 2.0 ,朋友的最后一役面临了巨大的挑战,欲哭无泪!

另一位朋友则开了一家素食餐厅,MCO后几个月几乎吃“龟苓膏”,元气大伤。

记得当时她告诉我她的资金只能够撑六个月,正斟酌是否把餐厅关闭,留着资金等疫情过后东山再起。

后来经过一翻考量,她认为疫情应该会有转机,决定放手一博。当时大概在7、8月左右,餐厅的人气也的确大有起色,我暗自为她高兴。

可是接下来的结局,也和第一个案例一样,MCO 2.0一下来,之前的努力马上毁于一旦!

以上的案例只是冰山一角,看看你周边的朋友,以为“执到宝”或错判形势的人是不是比比皆是?

几千亿打了水漂

MCO 2.0对企业的打击是非常致命的,因为很多人寄望政府能够好好控制疫情,并相信政府不会再走回头路而选择坚守岗位,最后连棺材本都赔下去了!

做生意和管理国家是一样的道理,你一开始把事情做对,的确是一件很了不起和值得庆幸的事,但假如你没有顺势而为,乘胜追击,制造出所谓的飞轮效应,那你之前的胜利,不止白费,它带来的破坏力甚至是加倍的!

从大马现在每天四、五千宗的确诊病例,和经济因疫情而几乎瘫痪的窘境来回看去年3月18日的封城行动,我们可以很痛心疾首的肯定,国盟政府为救经济而砸下的几千亿令吉等于打了水漂!

封城行动也等于白干了!呆坐在家里的牺牲也白白浪费掉了!

政治人物为了自身权益,做任何事情都有政治盘算,人民的财产性命,干卿何事?

一霎那的光辉,并不代表永恒!

退堂!

https://www.enanyang.my/名家专栏/抗疫三分钟热度等于白干拿督刘明

天行健,君子以自强不息/拿督刘明



你的“逆商”高吗?(下篇,完)

上一期在《逆商》这本书里,作者和我们谈到了人为何会有压力,我们应对逆境或压力的时候如何不钻牛角,以及人为什么会有习惯性的压抑,如何提升我们的逆商能力,尤其不应该以弱者之姿面对逆境。

今天我们谈谈如何测量逆商,和应对的方法。

测量逆商有四个维度或方向,作者用CORE 来解说:

1)Control (掌控感)

就是当你面对逆境的时候,你对这件事是否还能够掌控,还是束手无策?

比方冠病疫情是宏观问题,是每一个地球人都要面对的。

纵然我们急得如热锅上的蚂蚁,但那可不是我们可以掌控的,然我们还是可以控制我们周遭事物。

比如减少开支,想法子增加收入。

我有很多朋友是搞活动办展览的,疫情肆虐一年了,完全失去了收入,他们很多都转行开便利店,边做边学,至少有一个固定收入。

所以,只要我们还有掌控的能力,事情就不会太糟糕!

2)Ownership(担当)

但逆境发生时,你能够做些什么? 就如我上面所说,既然失去了平时的收入,我手上的资金是否足够让我开一家小型便利店?

利用你的强项,做你擅长的事。

设计是我的强项,所以我在疫情期间研发出蛮多刚需的产品!

3)Reach(影响度)

我们要好好分析,这个逆境的影响度到底有多深远?是一年?还是暂时性的?

这个逆境会不会让我完蛋、一无所有?还是没有自己想象那么糟糕?

我有一个朋友传承了父亲的祖业,开了近十家箱包兼冬装专门店。

他分析了市场的影响度,觉得未来一、两年旅游业不可能复苏,他毅然把门店关闭,遣散所有员工,把资金留着再等机会。

4)Endurance (持续性)

任何事情都会过去,这个逆境会持续多久?

当逆境突然出现时,我们会头脑发麻,束手无策、手忙脚乱。

比如拿督打人事件,开始时他肯定不知所措,但相信我,这件事情最多再过两个月,人们就会把事情淡忘,到时候他又是一条好汉!

当然,假如他没有在这件事情里吸取教训,过后依然我行我素,那真的是无药可救了!

用LEAD方式提高逆商

那么,有什么工具可以提高我们的逆商?或者解决我们面对的问题?

作者建议用LEAD的方式:

●Listen:倾听逆境反应

为什么自从我们不经意触摸火炉后,我们以后再也不会做此动作? 因为我们的大脑皮层突然发亮,告诉我们这是一个危险举动,这也是逆境反应的一种。

作者认为我们要对逆境保持警惕,当逆境来时我们马上有所反应,保持在大脑皮层状态,别掉入基底神经节让这事变成一种习惯。

当一个疯子对你大喊:你是个废物,你这一辈子完蛋了!

你下意识的反应是完全不理他,因为你根本不会去相信一个疯子说的话。

可是当你处于低潮时,你脑海里每天对自己喊得都是这些话,而你却相信了,因为那是你自己的声音!

所以为了避免陷入逆境陷阱,我们必须在生活中发现逆境,并且大声喊出来。

比如你发现产品出了纰漏,你可以用很搞笑的一种声音大喊,例如学救护车:依哦、依哦,逆境、逆境!

这种很傻的反应有两个好处:

1)好玩!你选择的反应越搞笑越好,因为笑声可以改变你的心里状态,让你更乐观地面对逆境。

2)会让你停下来留意逆境,你显然已经把潜意识反应带到了意识思维区,直接打断了潜意识反应,你突然会很清楚地意识到问题所在!

我们习惯性的自责,认为自己很无能,但自责并不能改变什么,所有的改变的第一步都是觉知。

救护车依哦、依哦的声音,让你觉知逆境的出现。

●Explore :探究担当结果

问问自己,我应该对结果的那一部分负责任?

那一部分的责任不是由我来负责?

意思是解铃还需系铃人,我们必须想办法分担责任,不能一个人扛下所有责任。而且千万不要把事情灾难化。

我们习惯性把问题灾难化,可是很多时候当你坐下来冷静想想, 逆境其实并没有我们想象中那么严重。

●Analyse:分析证据

问一问自己

1)这个局面是不是已经无法掌控?

2)这件事会影响到其他那些方面?

3)这个逆境会持续很久吗?

最后你会发觉,以上3 个问题都是否定的,是我们把它灾难化了!

●Do:做点事

遇到逆境的时候你能做些什么?

把你能做的事情如漏斗般每一样都写下来,然后按部就班的去做,你这时候猛然发现,原来有了工具就有了解决问题的方法!

我有一个朋友曾经犯了赌瘾,后来经过教会兄弟的帮助彻底戒赌,因为是过来人,他非常了解赌仔心态,结果他成立戒赌协会,帮助那些沉迷赌海之人。

这是他反脆弱,做一点事来唤醒大脑皮层的做法!

避免失控3方法

以上方法虽然管用,但有时候很难避免自己失控,而让自己进入了受害者心态。

受害者心态就是不断埋冤:为什么全世界的人都这样对我,为什么我身边没有一个好人?

书里给出两3种方法:

1)分心法

但你意识到问题要出现时,比方出席一个重要会议,路上突然很塞车,为了阻断自己失控,你可以大力拍一下方向盘,吓自己一跳,然后用比较清晰的头脑去思考如何解决问题。

你也可以用一个橡胶手环,当受害者心态出现的时候,用力弹一下自己,让自己清醒!

你也可以和朋友一起去运动,边谈边快走,不让自己胡思乱想。

2)重塑法

就是回到关注目标上,问问自己为什么干这事,找回你的初心!假如你的初心是正确和很有意义的话,你也许会重更积极的面对!

3)渺小化

去到一个让你自己感到非常渺小的地方,比方望着无边无际的大海,或看着人来人往的街头:原来自己只是芸芸众生之中的一个小分子!我的问题简直不屑一晒!

避免失控胡思乱想

以上是我从书中解读出来的内容,我发现有些方法还蛮好用,希望在这艰难时刻,至少有一个方法让你用的着,避免自己失控而胡思乱想。

朋友把老子在周易里说的:“天行健而君子自强不息”这句话来激励我,我也想借花献佛把它送给大家。

这句话的意思是:宇宙不停的运转,人应效法天地,永远不停的前进!

退堂!

https://www.enanyang.my/名家专栏/天行健,君子以自强不息拿督刘明

疫后的新常态经济/拿督刘明

友人聊天时和我谈起单身经济,他问我后疫情时代单身经济是否是一个新常态?若是,他看到一个商机!

我问:什么商机?他答:成人玩具!

我有点莞尔,问他灵感是否取自于鸡排妹的“杯从中来”?友人连忙摇手否认,说假如单身经济是新常态,性需要不论男女都有市场!

2011年,日本经济学者大前研一写了一本书,书中大意是指高龄化、少子化和网路化连锁效应地形成了产值惊人的“一个人经济潮”,这股潮流正影响着每个人的生活,带来无限的新商机。

一个人,是一种生活方式,也是一种好生意。

现在,不论是上学的、上班的、已婚的、单身的,每个人、每天都会一个人坐公车、搭轻快铁、看电影、逛商场、吃晚餐、败精品、上网路……,每个人都是“一个人的经济”的使用者,也是贡献者。

日本便利店“全家”几年前被引进马来西亚的时候,很快就爆红,现在全马遍地开花,分店应该也有接近200家, 很大程度上是受惠于一个人经济潮,也是如今疫情下的少数赢家之一!

探索真空行业

所以我告诉友人,单身经济行之有年,所以不是后疫情的新常态。我说,“家庭经济”反而是后疫情的新常态!

问问自己,我们曾几何时一家人“齐齐整整”放工后都待在家里,一起跑步、一起用餐?以前买日用品时都是选小的或中型罐装,现在都选大型的家庭装!

太太以前两三个星期才到霸级商场进货,现在几乎每个星期都到附近的“巨人”报到,家里的两个冰箱都被塞个“水泄不通”!之前各自吃饭,现在一家人一起打包!

只是这种家庭经济新常态,后疫情会否持久就很难说了!

现在全世界都在如火如荼地进行大规模接种疫苗,鍾南山说3月尾世界各国的冠病确诊曲线应该会逐渐被压平,这一点,我想无庸质疑!

我国2月底也开始接种疫苗,加上第二轮行动管控令的实施,人民防疫意识基本上提高很多,如无意外,马来西亚的疫情次季应该会趋稳,经济活动第三季度应该开始反弹。

后疫情时代,有那些行业会出现真空?这是我们应该开始思考的问题!




全家便利店是疫情下的少数赢家之一!

传统行业仍大有可为

友人说当然是那些新常态的产物吧?如直播、电商或现在大行其道的便利商店!

其实那些所谓新常态,如居家上班、线上开会等等,后疫情时代大都数会被打回原形。

而有些人宅在家久了养成的习惯如网购、线上叫餐等, 这些项目消费额会大幅增加,但传统的线下服务还是大有可为的。

人的消费模式也许会改变但消费习惯是改不了的,后疫情时代有多少新常态会成为常态?

那些所谓新常态的生意模式,大家挤破头掏空心思想去分一杯羹,又怎么会是后疫情的真空?

我还是老话一句:继续做自己擅长的事,只要能存活下来,疫情过后,任何行业都是真空行业!

按摩、旅游、美容等行业,是疫情重灾区,都是政府最后关头才考虑开放的行业,这些业界朋友真的是欲哭无泪,有冤无处诉啊!

管控令前不是有人拼命众筹开豪华按摩中心吗?这一次的疫情对所有按摩中心的打击都是非常致命的,这些重资产的众筹项目当然不能列外!

按摩中心有一个先天缺陷,就是她们的技师大多数都是外国人,这是业者最头疼的问题,疫情后外国技师工作证很大可能被冻结,就算政府网开一面,我想这些按摩中心的业主到时也有心无力了!

一场疫情全部归零

这位友人自主研发自动共振按摩器,提供全套产品和培训服务,也开了两家共振按摩中心,生意渐有起色,但一场疫情,全部归零!

我对友人说摆在眼前的行业真空,就是他的本业。因为他的共振按摩器一不需人体接触,二不需熟练技师,操作简单方便,成本不贵,疗效比人工按摩有过之而无不及!

用现成的产品,再设计一个商业模式,你准备迎接百年难得一遇的契机吧!我开玩笑的对友人说:你擅长的此共振非披共振也!

疫情红利变红海

农历新年前和一位老顾客聊天,她说你的奶爸包疫情后将大有可为!我有点纳闷,问她何出此言?

她说,夫妻两人整天待在家里没事干,多一点“炒饭”,然后生孩子是很正常的事!

新年期间和邻居慢跑,他牵着他刚买回来的宝贝小狗来凑热闹。他说现在宠物比管控令前昂贵许多,因为大家待在家的时间多了,养宠物成了一种需求!

旅游也绝对是一个真空,报复性消费也在过去的复苏管控令期间应验了,本地旅游区的酒店在政府允许开放后瞬间爆满,今年疫情平复后肯定也会历史重演。

所以我们可以预见,后疫情时代的市场环境将会和现在的情况完全颠覆,传统产业因为很多竞争对手不支倒地,反而商机处处;那些赚疫情红利的商家如便利商店和小家电厂商等,陷入红海厮杀的几率肯定大大提升!

新常态下的产物如送餐服务、快递平台、网红直播甚至电商,在市场恢复原状时需求是否骤减,分分钟酝酿着另一波淘汰潮!

所以坚守岗位,做你擅长的事,想方设法存活下来就是王道,因为寒冬即将过去,春天还会远吗?

https://www.enanyang.my/名家专栏/疫后的新常态经济拿督刘明

顾客满意是开店铁律/拿督刘明

最近我在面簿谈起我数年前遭遇的不愉快的顾客体验,引起两极化的反应。

有朋友数落我为小器之人,堂堂男子汉,竟然为了那点芝麻小事耿耿于怀那么久。也有一些网友私讯我,告诉我他们遇到的奇葩用餐遭遇,事情虽然过了蛮长的一段时间,回想起来他们还是气愤难平!

花钱买罪受,虽然不是什么“惨绝人寰”的冤案,我们当然也不会为了它吃不下饭,睡不著觉,但这种经验是茶馀饭后的好话题,因为经常被聊起,所以就一直滞留在脑海裡,挥之不去!

我那天在办公室里和同事聊起此事,发觉每个人都有不愉快的顾客体验,而且事隔多年,还历历在目,看来这是人之常情,说明我并不是唯一的怪咖!

同事A说他喜欢光顾他家附近的一间辣沙小店 ,因为味道不错,所以生意蛮红火。

有一次他发现他正大快朵颐的碗里竟然出现了一只苍蝇,他向老板反映此事,老板矢口否认此物出自他的锅子,后来虽然心不甘情不愿换了一碗,但他已经没胃口了!

此后他不再踏入这家店,而且每一次经过时都会大喊苍蝇辣沙,以泄心头之恨,历经7 年!

同事B一家几口喜欢到吉隆坡一家火锅店刷羊肉,有一次该店做促销,就是每消费一百元,可以用消费劵抵消10元。

一个星期后他们回去该火锅店用餐,待信用卡过账后才想起还有几十块消费劵不曾抵消,他希望店主可以取消之前的卡账,让他抵消三十元消费劵。

老板推说信用卡一经过账就不能取消,死活不肯抵消那三十元,而且态度非常不耐烦!

此事过后,他们全家人完全没有回头再去光顾的意愿,因为店家的不专业态度,让他们非常不舒服,都觉得没有必要再自讨没趣!

事隔将近十年,谈起此事,他还形容的活灵活现!他念兹在兹的当然不是那区区的三十元!

有网友在留言区开始讲诉他在韩国餐厅的用餐体验,却突然把留言删除改为私讯,继续他的故事。

顾客受气不再光顾

问他为什么不在留言版留言,他说应该有韩粉开始攻击他,因为他突然收到面簿的警告,有人投诉他为假账号!

网友为素食者,有一次在一家韩国料理用餐。

点餐的人刚好是餐厅老板。

他要了一份蔬菜炒饭,并千叮万嘱不要加任何与动物有关的调味料。

上菜的时候炒饭加了鱼露,他向对方反映此事。

老板听了竟然卷起衣袖发飙要打人:你是说不吃肉但没说不吃海鲜!

网友说我都没生气,只是好心提醒,都不知道他气什么?

他也从此不再踏入这家餐厅!

当然我收到蛮多不愉快的顾客体验,林林总总,这些经历在外人的角度看来虽然是小事,但对当事者来说却是被侮辱的大事,足于让他记恨或含冤一辈子!





不愉快体验杀伤力大

不愉快的顾客体验杀伤力极强,因为根据研究,一个不满意的顾客,会把负面信息传递给至少15 个人,现在有了社交媒体的推波助澜,被影响的人数肯定难以计算,若以顾客终身价值来计算,不可谓不损失惨重!

有“佛系”朋友留言说,购物或用餐遇到无理对待时,应该笑笑走开,因为业者一定有一些难言之隐,我们理应体谅!

这么堂而皇之的慈悲开示,我当然不能说是错误示范,但开门做生意,以礼待客是一个非常基本的生意守则,顾客对服务不满意,第一个要检讨的是店主,不可能要顾客自己反省或闭门思过,这种本末倒置的道理,真的是唯恐天下不乱!

顾客满意是开店铁律,无容置疑,虽然偶有奥客兴风作浪,但那则是另一个有待商榷的课题,不在本文讨论范围。

其实站在服务业的角度,顾客的有理投诉,才是我们制造粘性的机会。

去年尾我们找某外国网红带货,成绩还算不错。

其中一位顾客下了单,我们很快就把产品寄出去,但快递拖了5 天还没把货送到她家,她开始抓狂,投诉的语气非常不耐烦!

因为这是一张个性化的订单,包包上面已印上顾客的名字,假如我们重新印刷再寄出去,之前那个包包就报销了,而且时间上也来不及,因为她坚持第二天包包必须送达,我们猜想也许是生日礼物吧!

臭脸是开店大忌

负责网卖的同事和我商量后,立马安排从新印刷,然后亲自开车把新的包包送到她位于士毛月的家里。

这位顾客收到产品后受宠若惊,自己反而觉得不好意思,千谢万谢!

这种事情,我们已经习以为常,因为对顾客负责任,是所有从事服务行业的金科玉律,并不是什么大不了的事。

也有人说厨师每天与灶头为伍,火气大情有可原。

站在消费者权益或立场,我是完完全全不能认同的,因为职场上任何人都有压力,你总不能把自己的委屈发泄在别人身上,更何况那人是花钱向你买东西的财神爷!

古有明训:人无笑脸莫开店!奉劝那些每天带着苦瓜脸开店的朋友们,若你心情欠佳,争取休假一天吧,因为臭脸是开店大忌!

没有你的猪肉粉,隔壁的猪肠粉一样可口,天下美食如过江之鲫,少吃一碗,饿不死人!

退堂!

https://www.enanyang.my/名家专栏/顾客满意是开店铁律拿督刘明

Thursday, February 18, 2021

[转贴] 「投資聖杯」真的存在嗎?成功交易 3 要素你掌握幾個?

2021 年 2 月 18 日

文章來源
股感選文
作者

比爾的財經廚房

從很久之前,我還在寫程式交易的時候,(當然,程式的寫法我現在都忘光了)當時在一些討論區,經常看到類似的討論:如何尋找投資的聖杯。白話講,也就是能否找到神奇的市場秘密,透過重複相同的模式就能夠發財。但是真的有這樣的市場秘密嗎?在過去一段時間的嘗試之後,單就程式交易上,我覺得這個答案是否定的。因為沒有一支程式可以完美的覆蓋各種變化的市場情境。長期以來,一些能夠掌握波段行情的程式,在遇到市場狹幅震盪的時候就會遭遇「雙巴」,被多空兩面巴耳光的意思,而且很難判斷這個盤整的時間有多長。另一個角度看,某些能夠在震盪區間走勢中獲利的程式,就會在長波段行情過早出場,導致獲利不如預期。那麼既然聖杯不存在,我們還討論什麼呢?我想說的是,就程式交易的角度,或許一支完美的程式並不存在,但如果是從更廣義的面向看,則聖杯是存在的。今天我們就來談談這個題目。



關於聖杯有一個有趣的傳說。據說上帝和撒旦在天堂進行一場戰爭,保持中立立場的天使們把聖杯放在兩者中間。就好像放在北緯 38.5 度南北韓的停戰區裡,久而久之,這塊停戰區變成了一片廢墟。約瑟夫・坎貝爾認為這塊廢墟象徵著我們大部分人所過的不真實的生活。大多數人通常只是做著別人在做的事情,別人告訴我們該怎麼做,我們就怎麼做,隨波逐流。廢墟代表了我們沒有勇氣去過自己想過的生活,而發現聖杯就代表找到了逃離廢墟之路,能自由的過上自己的生活,並且實現靈魂的最大潛能。
有許多投資人相信市場存在某種神奇的攻略。而且只有少數人知道這些密技,也正是這些為數不多的人從市場中賺了大錢。因此,這些投資人為了致富一直堅持不懈地努力尋找獲利的攻略,但是沒有人知道該到哪裡去尋找這個神秘的「香格里拉」,他們尋找路線往往是最不可能找到秘境的方向。
 
適合他人的投資方法,未必適合自己

這其實並非有人刻意的誤導,相反的,其實是人們自身渴望被引入歧途。他們不斷的問一些錯誤的問題。例如:「我現在買什麼才會賺?」、「我手上有XXX股票,你覺得它們會漲嗎(如果你說不會,那麼他們會接著問別人直到有人同意他們的觀點為止)?」、「我現在到底該不該進場?」有很多專家,或者你說「老師」也差不多,他們透過收費向提出這些問題的人提供他們想要的答案,然後都賺了大錢。問題是這些人的答案也未必真正的答案。

但這些專家或老師們不是刻意要騙你,那麼為什麼在他身上有效的方法,在我身上沒效呢?這個原因,在經過了這麼多年的時間之後,我開始慢慢得出一個結論,也就是:適合他的方法,未必適合你。你必須找到適合自己的方法?《金融怪傑》的作者傑克・史瓦格,採訪了大量的市場奇才,得出的結論是:所有成功的交易員都具備的一個最重要的特點是,他們都找到了一個適合自己的系統或方法。人云亦云的散戶有可能在一波牛市當中賺到錢,但總的說來,他們大多時間都是虧錢的。有一套清楚操作方法並且持續行動的投資人高機率是會賺錢的。到底是什麼阻礙了散戶成功呢?他們喜歡不斷的向旁人徵求建議(甚至包括鄰居或同事),而不是思考並設計適合自己的方法。散戶們都有一種強烈的願望,就是希望自己每次下單都是賺錢的,因此他們希望找到一些很「正確」的選股法則,可以讓他們進場十拿九穩。然而問題是,真正的財富往往經由審慎的出場來實現的,這其中包含了停損的設計,以及忍受上漲時,急於獲利了結的心情。換句話說,有效的交易系統或許有成千上萬種,但是大多數人就算有了這樣一個系統也放著不用。為什麼?因為這一系統不適合他們。

成功交易的秘密之一就是找到一個適合自己的系統。因此,尋求聖杯的部分秘密就是遵循自己獨特的方法,並由此找到真正適合自己的東西。以我自己來說,我就逐漸意識到,我並不習慣當一個價值投資者,價值投資者的投資奧義,對我來說並不適用。相對的,我喜歡追高,也就是做趨勢投資者,操作動能投資,但很顯然有很多聽眾無法克服追高的心理障礙。

怎麼找到適合自己的投資方案?

接下來的問題是,那麼什麼才是適合你的投資方案呢?

大概我看過成功投資人的相關書籍,有的投資聖杯,大多不是什麼很精確的投資法,而是「了解人性」。或者你也可以說是「行為金融學」。對於大多數散戶投資人來說這是一個根本性的轉變。了解人性並非難以做到,而是大多數人很難意識到它的重要性。舉例來說,大多數成功的市場專業投資人,是透過嚴格控制風險獲得成功。但控制風險有悖於我們人性,我們看好一個標的的時候,就是傾向想要重押,這部分需要高度的自我控制。另外,你以為成功的投資人下注的準確度很高,但統計上卻只有 35% ~ 50% ,他們之所以成功並非每次都押中對的股票,而是因為他們賺錢的部位遠遠大於賠錢的部位。這也需要高度了解人性。巴菲特經典的「在別人恐懼的時候貪婪」,他們做別人不敢做的事情,在別人瞻前顧後時他們買進,耐心等待正確的投資機會,這同樣也需要理解人性。

成功的投資需要了解人性的弱點以及自我控制的能力,這是通向成功之路的第一步。如果你願意持續的練習,發展自我控制能力,練習對抗人性的貪婪跟恐懼,我估計你距離找到投資聖杯也不會太遠了。

成功交易 3 關鍵

接著,我們從另一個角度來討論成功交易的關鍵要素:一般認為涉及三個主要的領域:投資心理、資金管理以及交易系統。大多數人都強調交易系統,例如早年我開發了多種的交易程式,而忽視了其他兩個領域。事實上這三個方面都重要,但是投資心理是最重要的(大概佔 60% ),其次是資金管理,也就是投資部位的控管(大概佔 30% ),而交易系統是最不重要的(只佔約 10% ),沒聽錯,即使你就只是Buy and Hold,買了指數就擺著,時間久了也是會賺到錢,根本不需要來回折騰。

有些人只需要兩條均線也能賺錢, 一條 20EMA 一條 60EMA ,當 20EMA 由下往上穿過 60EMA 就買進,相反的情況就賣出。這個交易系統也是簡單到不行。但交易的過程中,我們可能偶然聽到隔壁同事,說了怎樣怎樣的消息,因此這一次我就沒有按照交易系統進出,如果你因此而賠錢了,這對你投資心理以及交易系統來說其實是正面加強的。相反的,對交易系統傷害最大的,其實是你不照系統,但你卻反而賺錢了,這對於你的投資心理造成了負向的強化效果,將有可能導致你的系統崩潰。

進一步來看,我們假設投資人在進出場的時候,有時候聽了某些投顧老師的建議,有時候是上了股票論壇去看網友的討論,如此一來,他所接收到的強化效果並不是單一的刺激來源,而是多方面的,結果學習過程將變得更複雜,投資人不但從中得不到訓練,而且會陷於危險的混亂之中。部分強化的結果,讓投資交易變得很像賭博。市場上有太多的變數,讓散戶投資人在隨意道聽途說之後還能賺到錢,這種經驗可能會反客為主,使投資人養成不良習慣。負向的強化效果,讓投資人與市場之間產生一種不正常的連結關係,這也就導致像無數在股海浮沉的人一樣,陷入飄忽不定的狀態了。

你能從你過去成功的投資經驗中歸結出具體的操作交易系統嗎?這個方法是可以重複操作的嗎?當某一次系統失效的時候,你怎麼處理?跟大家聊聊。

https://www.stockfeel.com.tw/投資-交易-聖杯-投資心理-資金管理-交易系統/

Cover Story 2: Stocks with dividend yields of over 4% an attractive investment option

Supriya Surendran/The Edge Malaysia
February 04, 2021 14:30 pm +08

This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly, on January 25, 2021 - January 31, 2021.

WITH the overnight policy rate (OPR) at a record low of 1.75% and with most economists pricing in another 25 basis point cut to 1.5% in the first quarter, savers with a higher tolerance for risk may opt for other alternatives for returns on their savings.

One option would be to invest in stocks that offer dividend yields of at least 4% or more, which is much higher than the prevailing fixed deposit rate of 1.75% to 2% offered by most banks.

“Dividend-yielding stocks are evergreen stocks as long as they keep paying. If you are buying [a stock] for dividend yields, then you should not expect too much from capital appreciation.

“However, you would still need to select carefully to ensure the dividend stocks that you buy can continue to pay indefinitely in good times or bad,” says TA Investment Management chief investment officer Choo Swee Kee.

Private investor and former investment banker Ian Yoong says it is always the right time to look for attractive dividend-yielding stocks.

“My definition of an attractive dividend yield is 1% above the 12-month fixed deposit interest rate, which is currently about 2% per annum.

“[Aside from an attractive yield], the underlying business has to be fundamentally attractive and well managed by honest and capable management. A dividend policy will be good to have too,” he says.



Peter Lim Tze Cheng, founder and chief research officer of independent research firm Trident Analytics Sdn Bhd, says it is important to analyse the company’s earnings and dividend track record.

“The thing about dividend yields is that it is calculated based on two numbers with two different timeframes — the dividend payments, which are historical, over the share price, which is current.

“The risk of using this simple approach is that a stock may look high-yielding because its current share price has fallen due to challenging economic conditions. The pertinent question to ask here is, if this year’s profit is falling, can they sustain last year’s dividends?” he says.

Table 2 shows stocks with dividends of above 4%, based on their closing share price on Jan 18. We take a closer look at some of those stocks here.

Jaycorp Bhd

Jaycorp Bhd’s net profit for the first quarter of its financial year ending July 31, 2021 (1QFY2021) more than doubled to RM12.34 million on the back of a 40% increase in revenue to RM107.21 million. This was boosted by its furniture division due to increased demand from the Asian and North American markets.

At its closing price of RM1.58 on Jan 18, Jaycorp generates a dividend yield of 6.3%. Compared with a year ago, its share price has appreciated by 61.4%. Aside from its furniture division, Jaycorp also has interests in kiln-drying, the manufacturing of carton boxes, renewable energy as well as engineering and construction.

UOA Development Bhd

For the nine months ended Sept 30, 2020, UOA Development Bhd reported a 24% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in net profit to RM356.33 million, despite revenue falling 26% to RM650.49 million. This was largely due to a fair value adjustment of RM114 million, as a result of the revaluation of UOA Corporate Tower. The group completed the disposal of the building to UOA Real Estate Investment Trust for RM700 million in December last year.

At its closing price of RM1.60 on Jan 18, UOA’s share price has declined by 15% from a year ago. At this price, the stock commands a dividend yield of 8.8%.
Perusahaan Sadur Timah Malaysia (PERSTIMA) Bhd

Tinplate producer PERSTIMA reported a 29% increase in net profit to RM25.66 million for the first half of its financial year ending March 31, 2021, despite revenue falling 9% to RM423.14 million. This was due to a better profit margin.

At its closing share price of RM3.75 on Jan 18, PERSTIMA generates a dividend yield of 5.25%. Compared with a year ago, its share price has declined by 5%.

Kumpulan Fima Bhd

Kumpulan Fima Bhd, which is involved in the bulk handling and storage of various types of liquids, transportation and forwarding services, the manufacturing and distribution of canned fish and food packaging as well as oil palm and pineapple cultivation, reported a 32.3% increase in net profit to RM 26.76 million for the first half of its financial year ending March 31, 2021, thanks to a higher profit contribution from its plantation and bulking divisions.

Revenue for the period, however, declined by 4% to RM233.32 million.

At its closing share price of RM1.89 on Jan 18, Kumpulan Fima commands a dividend yield of 4.8%.

Kumpulan Fima’s subsidiary Fima Corp Bhd, which is involved in oil palm cultivation and the production and trading of security and confidential documents, reported a 19.4% increase in net profit to RM12.12 million for the first half of its financial year ending March 31, 2021, also due to a higher profit contribution from its plantation division.

Revenue for the period fell 4.7% to RM106.18 million. At its closing share price of RM1.74 on Jan 18, Fima Corp offers a dividend yield of 7.18%. Compared with a year ago, its share price has appreciated by 6.4%.

Ta Ann Holdings Bhd

Plantation company Ta Ann Holdings Bhd reported a 74% y-o-y increase in net profit to RM66.27 million for the first nine months of its financial year ended Dec 31, 2020, thanks to the higher average selling prices of crude palm oil. Revenue for the period was up 29% to RM854.68 million.

At its closing share price of RM2.79 on Jan 18, Ta Ann’s dividend yield stands at 5.3%. Compared with a year ago, its share price has declined by 8.8%.

However, its exposure to commodity prices could mean volatility in earnings.

Poh Huat Resources Holdings Bhd

Furniture maker Poh Huat Resources Holdings Bhd reported a 2% increase in net profit for its financial year ended Oct 31, 2020, to RM51.9 million, on the back of a 5.9% decline in revenue to RM659.5 million.

A key furniture sourcing point, Poh Huat has received more orders from its customers for shipments all the way until July 2021. At its closing price of RM1.59 on Jan 18, Poh Huat has a dividend yield of 5.03%. Compared with a year ago, its share price has appreciated by 23%.

Tong Herr Resources Bhd

Stainless steel fastener manufacturer Tong Herr Resources Bhd reported a 66% increase in net profit for the first nine months of its financial year ended Dec 31, 2020, thanks to lower prices of raw materials, namely stainless steel wire rod and billet prices. Revenue, however, declined by 12.69% to RM423.25 million owing to the lower sales volume of fasteners as a result of the pandemic.

At its closing share price of RM2.22 on Jan 18, Tong Herr shares offer a dividend yield of 4.5%. Compared with a year ago, its share price has appreciated by 3.1%.

湯文亮:輸錢仍很開心的人

文章日期:2021年2月18日

【明報專訊】有老友話我澳門仔,應見盡賭仔百態,有冇見過輸了錢仍然很開心的人?我話當然有,而且有兩類,第一類是賭錢時撞啱一條正路,贏了很多錢,唔知條路幾時完,唯有繼續賭,希望輸兩三鋪,就話贏夠走人,同班老友去食飯、尋開心。如果那些賭仔不再回頭,他們可以算是輸了錢都很開心的人,但如果他尋完開心,再回賭場搏殺,再返出嚟的時候都是唔開心。

賭仔贏錢 反後悔買得少

第二類就是那些買圍骰的賭仔,輸咗錢仍然很開心,因為買得少,贏了反而唔開心,後悔買得太少。老友話唔怪之得,佢老婆以前萬幾美元買了一個比特幣,跌到落7000美元仍然非常開心,不但話買得少,仲話畀機會佢入貨。不過,近日比特幣不但上升至5萬美元歴史新高,並且屢次破頂,佢老婆反而愁眉苦面,整日都唔開心,老友了解之後知道老婆並沒有趁低吸納,始終只得一個比特幣,雖然贏了三萬多美元,但後悔買得少,她是有能力買二三十個,現在贏少了幾百萬港元,想開心都唔得。

買比特幣同買圍骰都是一樣,大家都會小注怡情,輸了會覺得是理所當然,反而會開心,贏了就大鑊,會問自己點解唔重槌出擊,反而會唔開心。所以,大家見到買比特幣的人唔開心,千祈唔好以為他們輸了錢,其實,他們嫌贏得少。

紀惠集團行政總裁
[湯文亮 敢說反話]

https://www.mpfinance.com/fin/columnist2.php?col=1463481149913&node=1613587672148&issue=20210218

Tuesday, February 16, 2021

探讨 ARBB(7181)最新业绩

在这么多的科技股里面,可以说最 “离奇” 的应该就是 ARBB 这家公司了 在各大科技股都涨个不停的同时,这家公司的 PE 估值竟然才 3 – 4 倍而已?大家也先别急,先看完这个季报再深入了解了才做买卖决定吧!

ARBB 本身呢,原本是从木材领域 出身的。但在新的管理层加入过后,ARBB 就在去年正式加入了本地交易所的科技板块内,并且在转型后交出的业绩也是相当不错的。不过如果你仔细看的话,虽然盈利是在上涨中,但是在 FY 2020 Q1 – Q3 的每股收益 EPS 却是在下滑中,到底是怎么回事呢?

这就要提起 ARBB 本身在过去发行高达 1,008,150,000 股 ICPS 说起了.. 在 2018 年的时候,ARBB 在开始转型时曾经通过发行 15:1 股的 PA 附加股,那么简单来说就是通过发行附加股来 “卖” 优先股,但是这个优先股因为不是直接对于股权稀释(因为优先股并不是实质股权,需要转换成母股才能享有母股的股东权益),因此一些高手早就进行价差交易,从中赚了不少钱了..

不过,这也已经过去了,现在的话有兴趣了解可以去参考一下 NIHSIN 的优先股 那么当时后的 ARBB 呢,总股数也不过是 67,210,000 左右而已。那么现在的 ARBB 总股数已经是 465,000,000 左右了,这笔帐到底是怎么算的呢?

先前认购 ARBB-PA 的投资者呢,因为发现了价差的机会,因此许多人就把 PA 换成母股在市场上出售,一方面 ARBB 公司本身可以获得融资(转换成母股需要支付一笔钱),另一方面也增加了 ARBB 的总股数,我们可以理解为至今的投资者已经转换了额外 397,790,000 左右股 PA 了

如果理解了这部分的话,相信对于公司为什么盈利数字不断提高,但是 EPS 反而下跌会有一个很容易理解的概念了 – 因为 EPS 是以盈利除与总股数,若是盈利成长比不上股数增加的速度的话,就会出现 EPS 下跌的情况了!

那该回到 ARBB 这个季度的业绩上了。ARBB 在这个季度的营业额为 RM 72.5 Million,对比去年同个季度增加了61.0%,而净利也达到了 RM 19.31 Million,对比去年同个季度增加了 54.2% 左右,而管理层提到说这主要是来自于公司的 ERP 以及 IoT 业务方面的增长的

而在这个季度内呢,可以看到 ARBB 确实有正经营现金流的迹象,但是对比上个季度大约增加了 RM 0.9 Million 而已,对比盈利而言依然是有一段差距.. 而另外一个值得留意的事项就是公司的资产负债表上增加了一个 Non-Current Trade Receivables,简单来说就是这个在业务上的欠债人需要在 12 个月后才能付款给公司,金额高达 RM 64.1 Million.. 那么问题来了 Trade Receivables 也是可以 Non-Current 的吗?

答案是可以的,不过没有那么普遍而已..

总之,这个季度的业绩改善是蛮大的,而 EPS 也从 FY 2020 Q1、Q2、Q3 的 2.33、2.30、1.90 改善到 4.34 之高,投资者看起来也对于这次的业绩挺满意的..

不知道大家怎么看接下来 ARBB 股权稀释以及业绩方面的有趣故事呢?

- 完 -

免费开投资户口!:http://app.eventure.com.my/d63110ef

免责声明:

以上所有的内容都单纯只是个人的观点,所涉及的内容只能被当成是学习,教育与资讯用途,而绝非专业的金融,投资意见,或买卖意见。

请自行分析,了解其风险,再向专业的金融理财顾问专家探讨投资的性质。Eventure Group 绝不对任何分享的内容,观点,的准确性,完整性,正确性,有效期性负责任。

#ICPS
#RIGHTISSUE
#ARBB
#EVENTURE

Tuesday, February 9, 2021

The Edge Best Call Awards 2020

Cindy Yeap and Kathy Fong/The Edge Malaysia
January 05, 2021 18:00 pm +08

This article first appeared in Capital, The Edge Malaysia Weekly, on December 28, 2020 - January 10, 2021.


THE selection of winners was especially tough this year, with many stocks reaching dizzying heights and mind-boggling multiples, though Malaysian stocks remain a mere fraction of the US$100 trillion that global stocks are now worth. The bellwether FBM KLCI looked set to end the year lower for a second straight year at the time of writing but reflected 23.18 times earnings — significantly higher than 17.7 times in 2019 and 21.3 times in 2018.

As many as 19 research outfits were represented in the 15th edition of The Edge Best Call Awards — the highest since the awards were started in 2005 (we skipped one year but brought back the awards because of popular demand).

We long-listed as many as 39 calls that proved right in 2020 but selected only 17 calls for 15 stocks from 131 nominations received for 90 stocks. The calls dropped from the running included stocks whose ascent, though steep, may not be sustainable. We also decided against picking winners for glove-related stocks this year but will look at them next year when the dust settles, so to speak.

The number of submissions we received for consideration was the highest since 2015, the first year The Edge opened nominations for this annual award beyond the heads of “sell-side” research outfits to the general investing public — readers of The Edge, fund managers, private investors and equity analysts themselves — for what they thought was the best “buy” or “sell” call that proved correct in 2020. Last year, 112 nominations were received from 15 research outfits for 81 stocks, compared with 82 nominations for 67 stocks in 2018, 90 recommendations for 66 stocks in 2017, and 86 nominations for 75 stocks in 2016.

The highest was 139 submissions for 102 stocks in 2015.

This year’s winners continue to include those who rightly stuck their neck out by calling an outright “sell” or “buy” against consensus and were proven right. A number of our winners this year were alone when they first made their “buy” or “sell” call. Like last year, we made some allowances for calls made in 2019 that proved right in 2020.

The awards are our best-effort attempt to recognise good fundamental stock analysis and its importance in making informed investment decisions. They are not meant to influence year-end appraisals or annual bonuses. Feedback is welcome at bestcalls@bizedge.com.

With that, here are this year’s winners — selected based on submissions and publicly available data — in no particular order. Congratulations to the winners. To the good stock pickers not recognised here, keep up the good work. Here’s wishing everyone a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year! Stay safe and may 2021 be a better year for everyone!

Credit Suisse head of research Danny Goh’s call on Hong Leong Financial Group Bhd


When Credit Suisse’s Danny Goh reinitiated coverage on Hong Leong Financial Group Bhd (HLFG) with an “outperform” rating on June 1 this year, he told clients that HLFG was trading at a steep 32% discount to its sum-of-parts valuation of RM19.65 per share and that its life insurance business and associate stake in MSIG — which he valued at RM5.1 billion — were not reflected in its market capitalisation.

At the time, HLFG was hovering around RM13 apiece (RM15.1 billion market cap) but Goh reckons it should fetch at least RM15.70, which was his target price. Interestingly, Bloomberg data showed that one of the three earlier “buy” recommendations were cut to “hold” (to join two other “hold” calls) the day Goh reinstated coverage on HLFG following the release of its latest quarterly earnings.



While the stock slipped closer to RM12 within the first two months of the call, it was quick to more than retrace those losses — surging as much as 54% in just over three months to reach as high as RM18.68 on Dec 14. Closing at RM17.50 (RM20 billion market cap) on Dec 22, the stock was still up 35% in just under six months from June 1 — not too shabby for a large-cap stock that is only up 3.55% year to date. Goh’s target price has been increased to RM20.60 since Nov 19 this year, which reflects 17.7% upside potential if he continues to be right.

UOB Kay Hian Research analyst Desmond Chong’s call on Greatech Technology Bhd


One other analyst was already tracking Greatech Techology Bhd when UOB Kay Hian’s Desmond Chong initiated coverage on July 2 this year. His “buy” call at the time, however, was earlier than his peer’s and it proved prescient, with the stock up 261.7% year to date as it ended at RM8.68 on Dec 22 to give it RM5.4 billion market capitalisation.

When starting coverage, Chong described Greatech as having “unique positioning for the fourth industrial revolution” beyond the typical automated test equipment (ATE) manufacturers in Malaysia that are benefiting from the growth in industrial automation globally because it also automates processes in production lines.


His initial RM4.80 price target reflected 19% upside to the RM4.04 the stock was hovering at back then, but the target prices were subsequently revised higher when Greatech’s order book was bolstered by more contract wins. When upgrading his target price to RM7.60 to reflect 19% upside in mid-August, he told clients that the stock could justify a higher valuation multiple given its unique value proposition of having a strategic exposure in the solar, medical and automotive industries that offer better dynamics to weather cyclicality. His target price has been upped to RM9.90 since Nov 30 this year, which is 8.4% above the stock’s 52-week high of RM9.13 on Nov 13 and 145% above where it was when Chong started coverage just six months back in early July. Investors would likely be keeping an eye on whether Greatech can continue replenishing its order books.

TA Research analyst Tan Kong Jin’s call on Focus Point Holdings Bhd


It is easy to miss Focus Point Holdings Bhd, whose market capitalisation stood just below RM200 million even after gaining as much as 152% this year to close at 90.5 sen on Dec 17. The stock’s rally in February was cut short in March when stocks around the world reacted to the declaration of a pandemic. Investors would have locked in most of their gains early in the year if they had followed Tan’s “sell” call on Feb 28 when the stock was at 68.7 sen. At the time, Tan told clients the stock had surged 110% since he initiated coverage in May 2019 and was already fully valued at 67 sen.


Investors would have made another round of gains if they saw the opportunity and bought the stock again when Tan upgraded the stock to a “buy” on March 30 when it was hovering at 36.5 sen, which reflected a discount of over 80% to his target price of 67 sen. At the point of his upgrade, the only other stock recommendation was a “hold”.

From there, the stock soared as much as 152% to reach as high as 92 sen intra-day on Dec 16. At the time of writing, Tan has yet to change his call, despite the stock price being 30% above his target price of 67 sen as it closed at 87 sen on Dec 22.

Maybank Investment Bank Research analyst Kevin Wong’s call on Inari Amertron Bhd


Shares of Inari Amertron Bhd, one of Broadcom Inc’s top OSAT (outsourced semiconductor assembly and test) providers, were up more than 52% year to date to give it a market capitalisation of RM8.5 billion. With as many as 20 analysts actively tracking the semiconductor player, it is not easy to stand out.

Yet Maybank Investment Bank Research’s Kevin Wong made more than one timely recommendation on the stock this year, putting it ahead of five other houses that submitted their call for consideration for The Edge Best Call Awards.


The first timely call was Wong’s downgrade from “hold” to “sell” on Nov 27, 2019, after Inari’s first-quarter earnings came in one-fifth below full-year forecasts. Its share price slipped nearly 40% — from RM1.80 levels in late November 2019 to as low as RM1.09 on March 19 this year — before rebounding. The rebound came just three days after Wong’s upgrade of Inari to “buy” from “sell” on March 16. His RM1.50 target price had implied 39% upside potential, with Inari shares hovering around RM1.08 back then. Closing at RM2.59 on Dec 22, there is still 31% upside potential to Wong’s target price of RM3.40 if he continues to be right.

Hong Leong Investment Bank Research analyst Gan Huan Wen’s call on Lii Hen Industries Bhd


Malaysian furniture companies were seen as among the beneficiaries of a shift in supply chain as a result of US-China trade tensions. But what makes Lii Hen Industries Bhd worth an even closer look is its net cash position and dividend-paying capability. While Hong Leong Investment Bank’s (HLIB) Gan Huan Wen probably inherited coverage of Lii Hen from the HLIB analyst who unearthed the stock in September 2017 (Rachel Hong), investors who heeded Gan’s recommendation the past year would have profited handsomely.

Closing at RM3.87 on Dec 22, Lii Hen shares were up 26% year to date and had gained 146.5% over nine months, if measured from their 52-week low of RM1.57 on March 19 this year — and that’s just the share price appreciation.


Noting how Lii Hen’s net cash position had risen from 84 sen per share as at end-December 2019 to 88 sen per share as at end-June and 96 sen per share as at end-September, Gan expects Lii Hen to pay a dividend per share of 16.5 sen in FY2020 and 20 sen per share in FY2021, which reflects a 5.17% yield at the time of writing. On Nov 17, Gan raised the target price from RM4.08 to RM4.96 after increasing sales and earnings forecasts following the delivery of higher-than-expected earnings. That implies 28% upside potential if Gan continues to be proven right.

AllianceDBS Research analyst Toh Woo Kim’s and Credit Suisse analyst Danny Chan’s calls on Time dotCom Bhd


It is perhaps little wonder that shares of Time dotCom Bhd are up 48% year to date, with providers of fixed broadband seen as among the beneficiaries as Covid-19-related movement restrictions made it necessary for many to work and study from home. The stellar gains made it the best-performing Malaysian telecoms stock, piping gains seen at incumbent Telekom Malaysia Bhd, while larger capitalised mobile peers skidded.


Of the four submissions on Time dotCom for the awards, the calls by AllianceDBS’s Toh Woo Kim and Credit Suisse’s Danny Chan were among four jointly ranked for top place by Bloomberg, alongside Macquarie Research’s Prem Jearajasingam and BIMB Securities’ Afifah Abdul Malek. They are among seven analysts who still have a “buy” recommendation while three houses (UOB KayHian, Maybank and RHB Research) have downgraded their calls to “hold”, according to Bloomberg data.

Toh and Chan have target prices of RM16 while Macquarie is the most bullish at RM16.70. Those with “hold” recommendations have target prices ranging between RM13 and RM13.70, which implies limited upside from the stock’s RM13.32 closing on Dec 22. It would be interesting to see who will be proven right next year.

Maybank Investment Bank Research analyst Yin Shao Yang’s and Rakuten analyst Yong Jun Ting’s calls on RCE Capital Bhd


Investors who bought shares of RCE Capital Bhd would have gained a rare combination of decent dividend yield as well as good capital appreciation with the stock price up 53.9% at its Dec 22 closing of RM2.54.

While it was Maybank Investment Bank Research’s Desmond Ch’ng who first initiated coverage on RCE Capital back in September 2016, investors would have benefited from analysis by Yin Shao Yang, who took over coverage from Nov 6, 2019, when the stock price hovered around RM1.45. It was only in FY3/2020 that net profit exceeded the RM100 million mark and the dividend payout ratio began to rise again. RCE Capital, which provides personal financing, including to civil servants, is also enjoying cheaper cost of funds, thanks to the low interest rate environment.


Similarly, Rakuten has maintained a “buy” call on RCE Capital since initiating coverage on Oct 29, 2019, highlighting to clients the latter’s defensive value proposition and decent asset quality. Its target price was RM2.39 as at Oct 8 while Maybank’s was RM2.09 as at Nov 11.

A special mention also goes to KAF Seagroatt & Campbell’s Izzul Hakim Abdul Molob and RHB Research’s Liew Wai Hoong. Izzul has had a “buy” call on RCE Capital since Jan 3, 2018, and a RM2.30 target price as at Aug 18, according to Bloomberg data. Liew, who started coverage on Jan 10, has the most bullish target price of RM2.80 — the only one that had not been exceeded at the time of writing.

Hong Leong Investment Bank Research analyst Tan J Young’s call on UWC Bhd


The meteoric rise in UWC Bhd’s share price is just jaw-dropping. More so if you are looking at a two-year horizon.

UWC made its debut on Bursa Malaysia’s Main Market in July 2019, at an adjusted initial public offer price of 55 sen. About 18 months later, the share price closed at RM9.88 on Dec 22 — 18 times its IPO price.

For the year to Dec 22, the stock had rallied 363%. The market price has exceeded Hong Leong Investment Bank Research analyst Tan J Young’s target price of RM8.88. During the year, he had raised the target price substantially from RM2.59 in March as the company’s earnings growth gained momentum.

UWC’s quarterly net profit has increased sequentially since it started reporting results for the financial quarter ended April 30, 2019 (3QFY2019). Its quarterly net profit leapt from RM8.82 million in 3QFY2019 to RM21.7 million in 1QFY2021.



Tan is one of two analysts who track UWC, which specialises in the provision of precision sheet metal fabrication and value-added assembly services as well as the fabrication of precision-machined components. The company mainly serves the semiconductor, life sciences and medical industries.

“The escalating [US-China] trade intensity may eventually benefit UWC, which provides a one-stop solution, as more companies shift productions out of China to avoid import tariffs,” Tan wrote in his research note.

A notable mention goes to Nomura’s Kong Heng Siong, who also has a “buy” call on the stock, with an even higher target price of RM10.

AmInvestment Bank Research analyst Jeremie Yap’s call on CSC Steel Holdings Bhd and Scientex Bhd


The steel sector has been off investors’ radar screens due mainly to the structural issues that it is facing such as the flood of cheap imports eating into their profitability.

Still, AmInvest analyst Jeremie Yap managed to find a gem in CSC Steel Holdings Bhd. About a week after the flat steel product maker’s share price plummeted to an all-time low of 50.3 sen on March 23, he made a “buy” call on the stock, with a target price of RM1.09.

Earnings-prospects-wise, Yap had his reservations on CSS Steel amid the disruption brought about by the Movement Control Order (MCO) and the expected weak demand due to the pandemic. Nonetheless, he saw it as a dividend play that offered a high yield of 7% after the sharp fall in share price made the stock attractive in March, given its cash-rich balance sheet.


CSC Steel’s share price rebounded from its trough and climbed to a 2½-year high of RM1.29 on Dec 16, exceeding Yap’s target price.

While many companies are suffering from cash flow problems during the pandemic, CSC Steel’s cash pile has grown, although its net profit shrank 44% to RM15.57 million for the nine months ended Sept 30, from RM27.7 million. The company’s net cash balance increased to RM307.6 million or 83.3 sen per share, which seems to have put it in a good position to declare a generous dividend.

AmInvest’s Jeremie Yap isn’t the first analyst to discover this stock. Nonetheless, the “buy” recommendation that was made on Sept 16 was just in time to ride the second leg of the rally that lifted Scientex Bhd’s share price to a record high of RM12.50 in December.


In roughly three months, investors would have made a capital gain of 36% — a considerably handsome return considering that the company has a market capitalisation of more than RM10 billion — if they had followed Yap’s recommendation. He believed that Scientex would be a good proxy to the growth in global demand for fast-moving consumer goods packaging materials.

To improve its liquidity, Scientex undertook a two-for-one bonus issue plus a free issue of warrants on the basis of one warrant for every five existing shares. This gave the company’s share price a strong boost.

It is worth noting the early birds who advised their clients to add the stock to their portfolios when Scientex tumbled to a four-year low of nearly RM6 in late March. They include Jeff Lye of TA Securities, the UOB Kay Hian team, Brian Yeoh of Affin Hwang and Damia Othman of Kaf Seagroatt & Campbell, according to Bloomberg.

Kenanga Investment Bank Research analyst Samuel Tan and Public Investment Bank Research analyst Chong Hoe Leong’s calls on D&O Green Technologies Bhd


D&O Green Technologies Bhd is not a rubber glove stock, yet its share price has shot up more than four times to an all-time high of RM1.93, after plunging to a year low of 44.8 sen.

PublicInvest’s Chong Hoe Leong and Kenanga Research’s Samuel Tan are the two analysts in town who spotted this gem. They upgraded D&O Green to their “buy” lists in February on the grounds that the automotive LED maker’s orders were picking up and the company was gaining market share in the automotive industry.


Although consumers have tightened their belts as the Covid-19 pandemic has taken a heavy toll on the global economy, surprisingly automotive sales have been better than expected, particularly in China. Hence, D&O Green’s earnings have been rather resilient, with its net profit barely shrinking 8% to RM19.3 million for the nine months ended Sept 30, from RM21 million in the previous corresponding period. Revenue grew marginally to RM366.2 million from RM353.8 million.

Tan revised upwards his target price thrice — to 91 sen in February, RM1.20 in August and RM2 on Nov 25 — as the increase in D&O Green’s share price had gathered steam since late March. Meanwhile, Chong raised his target price to 89 sen in February, RM1.14 in August and RM1.88 in November.

RHB Research analysts Loong Kok Wen and Raja Nur Aqilah Raja Ali’s call on CapitaLand Malaysia Mall Trust


Real estate investment trusts (REITs) are usually perceived as a vehicle for investors to seek shelter in when the economic climate turns harsh.

But RHB Research analysts Loong Kok Wen and Raja Nur Aqilah Raja Ali know quite well that not all REITs are the same. The duo told their clients to offload units in CapitaLand Malaysia Mall Trust (CMMT) in October 2019, when the shopping mall REIT was trading at slightly below RM1. They reiterated their “sell” call in January as they anticipated that pressure was mounting on the REIT’s occupancy rate and rental, noting that the group’s shopping malls in the Klang Valley were not faring well.


The unit price of CMMT lost its footing in February, even before the outbreak of Covid-19 in Malaysia. The REIT continued to slide although the local bourse staged a strong V-shaped rebound after the global equity rout subsided in late March.

Their recommendation was timely. The Covid-19 pandemic that resulted in a drastic drop in footfall at shopping malls has made the REIT’s earnings prospects even gloomier. CMMT fell to a low of 59 sen per unit on Nov 11. As at Dec 22, it had shed 37.5% year to date to 61.5 sen.

UOB Kay Hian Research analyst Jack Goh Tooan Orng’s call on Mieco Chipboard Bhd


Like furniture companies, particle board makers such as Mieco Chipboard Bhd are also seen as beneficiaries of trade diversions owing to US-China tensions. Demand also rose as more people worked from home.

Investors who paid attention when UOB Kay Hian’s Jack Goh said, in a furniture sector note, that Mieco was worth at least 48 sen, when the shares were at 34 sen on Sept 7, would have enjoyed the 154% share price appreciation in just three months. Mieco shares closed as high as 86.5 sen on Dec 15.


While the share price had run ahead of the 55 sen apiece that Goh said Mieco was worth in a Nov 3 note, he had yet to revise his recommendation at the time of writing. “Mieco is a clear winner in the particle board segment, despite the over 40% share price appreciation since our last report two months ago. Besides nursing itself back to high profitability, Mieco is on course to restructure some of its short-term debts for a healthier balance sheet,” Goh wrote in the Nov 3 note.

We acknowledge this call for the stellar returns and Goh as the only analyst actively tracking the stock, according to data on Bloomberg at the time of writing.

TA Research analyst Wilson Loo Jia Chern’s call on Unisem (M) Bhd


With hindsight, many may deem “buy” calls on semiconductor stocks as something of a no-brainer, going by how well technology stocks are doing globally. Yet TA Research’s Wilson Loo deserves a pat on the back for being the first to upgrade Unisem to a “buy” on Nov 4, 2019, with a RM2.75 target price when the stock price was RM2.28. At the time, all nine other analysts covering the stock had a “sell” recommendation.

The upgrade from “hold” to “buy” followed a selldown, “which has presented improved upside potential”, Loo told clients in a Nov 4 note. At the time, he also expected the closure of Unisem’s loss-making operations in Batam Island, Indonesia, to offload the long-standing drag on earnings.


While Unisem skidded to as low as RM1.53 in March this year following wide-ranging sell-offs when the Covid-19 pandemic was declared, investors who bought the stock in November 2019 would have profited handsomely as the share price tripled in just over a year to close as high as RM6.80 on Dec 18, before retracing to RM6.10 on Dec 22.

Loo — who retained his “buy” call and RM6.52 target price on Dec 14 when the stock closed at RM5.77 — is ranked first among nine analysts tracking the stock, according to Bloomberg data at the time of writing.

BIMB Research analyst Afifah Abdul Malek’s call on GHL Systems Bhd


While her peers had downgraded GHL Systems Bhd amid concerns about its profit margin and high valuation, BIMB Research analyst Afifah Abdul Malek not only maintained her “buy” call but also raised her target price to RM2.15. Her bullish view on the company was simply because of Bank Negara Malaysia’s efforts to increase cashless payment transactions.

“We remain positive on GHL’s long-term business prospects amid continuous efforts by the government to adopt digital payments as well as a rise in the contactless payment trend,” Afifah wrote in her quarterly results review in November.


Judging by GHL’s share price performance this year, Afifah’s “buy” call seems to have been proved right. The stock has doubled since the start of the year, from 90 sen to RM1.80 on Dec 22. It hit a record high of RM2.12 on Dec 2.

The Covid-19 pandemic has expedited the migration to cashless payments due to an increase in online shopping and for hygiene reasons. GHL, which specialises in cashless payment solutions, is riding high on the migration that has helped to mitigate weaker consumer spending. The company’s transaction processing value (TPV) for e-pay and card payment services recorded the highest value in the third quarter ended Sept 30 at RM1.1 billion and RM4.7 billion respectively.

Save by subscribing to us for your print and/or digital copy.

Monday, February 8, 2021

Slow recovery for O&G stocks


Supriya Surendran/The Edge Malaysia
February 08, 2021 14:00 pm +08

This article first appeared in Capital, The Edge Malaysia Weekly, on February 1, 2021 - February 07, 2021.

LAST Wednesday, the price of Brent crude oil — the global benchmark for the trading of the commodity — reached US$56 per barrel, having risen 49% since end-October last year. However, the Bursa Malaysia Energy Index, which tracks the performance of 25 oil and gas (O&G) stocks traded on the local bourse, only gained 25%, or half as much, over the same period, ending at 810.33 points on Jan 27.

Pankaj C Kumar, a former director of investment at KSK Group Bhd, says there has been some selling of O&G counters over the past month as evidenced by the Bursa Malaysia Energy Index, which is down almost 10% year to date despite firmer underlying oil prices.

“This is mainly due to a rotational move towards some sexier sectors, in particular the tech sector, as well as profit-taking from the rally that we saw in November on the back of a recovery theme. Fundamentals have not really changed that much over the past month, so I guess it is more of investors switching from a recovery play to momentum, in particular the tech sector,” he says.

Analysts believe the capital expenditure (capex) outlook of national oil company Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) is a more realistic gauge of where O&G stocks are headed than crude oil prices.

Basing his analysis on the Petronas Activity Outlook (PAO) report released in December last year, UOB Kay Hian analyst Kong Ho Meng wrote in a Jan 4 note that all upstream activities demand, ranging from rigs to decommissioning and maintenance, suffered hefty downgrades in the latest PAO report.



“We see a negative impact given that the PAO is the key fundamental guidance (and not oil prices) to the local sector’s contract visibilities. The new demand appears to be recalibrated to where the upstream activities were in the second half of 2020, or even back to 2018. If the new PAO predictions are correct (no major activity recovery), it is possible for some upstream stocks that rose to fame in 2019 to derate to pre-2018 levels,” he says.

Kong believes that the sector’s valuation has adequately reflected the optimism in oil prices. “However, the PAO’s guidance makes it clear that the sector’s sustainable earnings recovery will only remain uncertain. For stocks that are very locally dependent on Petronas but reacted to higher oil prices, we advise investors to consider taking profit. These include Velesto Energy Bhd, Dayang Enterprise Holdings Bhd, Perdana Petroleum Bhd and Petra Energy Bhd.

“Although we do not have a clear top pick, we still prefer stocks that are internationally competitive. There may be a longer-term recovery for Yinson Holdings Bhd depending on the overseas FPSO (floating production storage and offloading) contracts it may secure by the second half of 2021.”

In her Jan 4 PAO analysis report, MIDF Research analyst Noor Athila Mohd Razali maintains a neutral stance on the O&G sector for both upstream and downstream subsegments, given that the sector continues to be susceptible to the Covid-19 pandemic. “That said, we are encouraged by the fact that in Petronas’ 2021-2023 [PAO], the national oil company has remained steadfast in its commitment to support local O&G service providers and, in that sense, will continue to prioritise local expertise,” she writes.

“The outlook also, among others, assured that there will be at least a sustained activity level in the next three years locally despite the subdued operating environment in the sector worldwide. As for our top picks for the sector, we remain in favour of Dialog Group Bhd and Serba Dinamik Holdings Bhd, both for their resilience, well-diversified revenue base and limited exposure to direct upstream business activities.”

Dialog, an integrated technical service provider to the upstream, midstream and downstream sectors in the oil, gas and petrochemical industry in Malaysia, saw its share price decline by 15% over Oct 30 to last Wednesday, closing at RM3.13 for a market capitalisation of RM17.6 billion.

In a Jan 4 note on Dialog, RHB Research analyst Sean Lim says Dialog continues to deserve a premium valuation as its earnings growth trajectory is expected to resume in FY2022. “Dialog’s recent share price weakness presents an opportunity to accumulate the stock, even though the firm may not be able to achieve growth in FY2021.



“Management has yet to see tank terminal rates retrace, despite the recent oil price rally. With its growth trajectory expected to return in FY2022, while earnings should be more resilient on the higher proportion of tank terminal contributions, this stock continues to deserve a premium valuation.”

The share price of Serba — which provides a multitude of engineering services and solutions ranging from operation and maintenance to engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning, among other products and services — has increased 4% since October. It closed at RM1.59 last Wednesday, giving the company a market capitalisation of RM5.4 billion.

AmInvestment Bank analyst Alex Goh wrote in a Jan 25 note that including the RM1 billion worth of contracts secured over the past month, Serba’s outstanding order book is believed to have increased 1% quarter on quarter to RM18.7 billion. “Additionally, the group is poised for stronger order book growth with the recent acquisition of the RM320 million Teluk Ramunia yard, which enhances and substantively expands the group’s strategic presence in Pengerang’s Refinery and Petrochemical Integrated Development.”

Goh has maintained his “buy” call on Serba, with a fair value of RM2.20 per share.

Kenanga Research analyst Steven Chan, in a Jan 13 note, has an “outperform” call on Yinson, with a target price of RM6.95. This is after pricing in a potential contract win for Yinson, which is in the midst of retendering for three FPSO projects, namely Limbayong in Sabah, Pecan in Ghana and Parque das Baleias in Brazil, he says.



“Seeing that Yinson is deemed a potential favourite in all three of these upcoming tenders, we see it likely for the company to secure at least one new win during the year. However, note that our valuations have yet to factor in any potential upcoming equity fundraising or rights issue, which may be necessary to fund these new projects in the event of a contract win. Keen investors should also be wary of the counter’s risk of failing shariah compliance during the year,” says Chan.

Yinson’s share price had appreciated 16% since October to close at RM5.30 last Wednesday, giving the company a market capitalisation of RM5.6 billion.
How sustainable is the oil price rally?

On the outlook for crude oil prices, experts say the commodity could hit US$65 per barrel in the later part of the year.

“I project that global oil demand could return to pre-crisis levels of 101 million barrels per day by mid-2021, with Brent crude oil hitting US$60 a barrel in the first quarter, then rising to probably US$70 to US$80 by the third quarter, and averaging US$60 to US$65 this year,” says Dr Mamdouh G Salameh, an international oil economist and visiting professor of energy economics at the ESCP Business School in London.

“[This will be] underpinned by fast improving fundamentals, accelerating depletion of global oil inventories projected to hit an estimated 100 million barrels in the first quarter of 2021, accelerating global rollout of vaccines with prospects of an earlier end to the global lockdown and a resumption of full economic activities, as well as a continuation of the Opec+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies) production cuts.

“Two additional factors could be anchoring my projections, namely China and India’s insatiable thirst for oil and the fact that we will not see an early comeback of US shale oil production to pre-pandemic levels soon, if ever.”

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, says that with global oil demand still running close to six million barrels per day below pre-pandemic levels, he does not see a material upside risk to oil prices before 2022 or even 2023, at which point the dramatic cut in capex from global oil majors may start to impact the ability to find new barrels. “On that basis, we see Brent crude oil trading steady in the mid to low US$50s during the quarter, until the point where fundamentals are strong enough to support an extension towards US$65 per barrel, during the latter part of 2021.”

周顯:炒股需有對手 方可賺大錢

文章日期:2021年2月8日

【明報專訊】我說過,炒股票,要有對手,先至可以大上大落,正如要有人沽空,股票先至可以大升,很多人不明白這其中原理,因而有必要解釋一下。

把股價炒高,是非常容易的事,白癡也可做到:只要用錢買,它就會升了,這是必然的物理現象,完全不用解說。所以,真正的技巧,永遠不在於炒高股價,而在於沽出股票,這就是那句名言﹕「Exit is always the problem.」

簡單點說,不管你把股價炒得多高,沒有人買,也沒有用。反之,股價很低,但很多人買入,還可以「薄利多銷」。

沽空者平倉 莊家始能高位套現

好了,現在講到有人沽空,莊家把股價炒高,假如莊家輸了,沒錢頂住股價,那麼,當然是沽空者賺大錢。然而,反過來看,如果莊家挾倉,把沽空者都挾爆了,沽空者被迫平倉,平倉,也即是要買入股票……這時,莊家就可以以高價,把手頭的股票賣給沽空者,這就是賺大錢的方法了。

如果沒有沽空、沒有平倉,在股票炒到高價之時,絕對沒有人會用這麼高的價格去買入股票,就算有這種笨蛋,數量也不會多。因此,這就應了股票的一個原理﹕必須有對手,方可以贏大錢,而撞到沽家與莊家對決,勝方就可全拿,至於我們這些食花生的,只要看準風向,也不難渾水摸魚,賺點小錢。

[周顯 投資二三事]

https://www.mpfinance.com/fin/columnist2.php?col=1463481127012&node=1612723386225&issue=20210208

Monday, February 1, 2021

王弼:哪隻股份有機步GME後塵?

文章日期:2021年2月1日

【明報專訊】上周全球聚焦在美國「可憐蟲」(Deplorables)對華爾街金融精英發起的挾爆空倉革命,要分析事件,從而牟利,就必先要深入了解這批可憐蟲究竟是何方神聖。

這批可憐蟲,其實有點像香港一些年輕人(不要漏了「一些」這個關鍵詞,我不是說「所有」年輕人),本來沒什麼大志,一定支持政府派錢,不勞而獲有誰不喜歡呢?有錢在手,通常立刻花光,買最新款的iPhone,和女朋友去深圳飲下喜茶,然後按摩直落,無論政府和大財團,都喜歡他們這樣生活,因為政府派了的錢,經這批可憐蟲的手繞個圈又落了大財團的口袋,這種社會最和諧。

「可憐蟲」挾爆華爾街 屬階級矛盾

不幸地,社會發生了一些事件,這批可憐蟲竟然不安分的發起爛渣來,學人講理想。鏡頭回到美國,這批可憐蟲,不安於只拿手上600大元(美金)的救濟支票來消費,而是用來炒股票,本來也無傷大雅,只要他們把錢輸掉給華爾街精英便是,但今次GameStop(GME)事件,竟然炒贏華爾街沽空機構,累得他們要斬倉,引發金融機構拋售其他股票觸發股市大跌,孰不可忍!其實華爾街沽空機構,一向只是精英界的下層(不是個個都是索羅斯),也是政府和建制的打壓對象,否則不會每次股災,政府都禁止沽空,然後把責任拋給沽空機構,說他們擾亂市場秩序。明顯GME事件是一次階級矛盾,Main Street的Deplorables斬殺Wall Street的Deplorables,就是擾亂三綱五常,因此有關當局必須出手,打壓Reddit仔的顛覆活動!

可留意沽空比率高市值細股份

不過按香港早前的局勢發展,美國Reddit仔不會就此罷手,他們現在已不只想賺錢,挾爆華爾街製造混亂,令建制派出醜,可能是更高的使命。因此,如果有讀者想蹚這渾水,要追貨可選擇沽空比率高企的股份。我做過初步的資料蒐集,繼GME後,最高沽空比率的股份依次為股票代號DDS、LGND、BBBY和FIZZ,如果選擇市值細的股份,挾爆的彈力更佳。當然,讀者亦可以企在建制派那邊跟可憐蟲對着幹,本欄不提供怎樣炒,只分析雙方心理,為大家做決定提供一些資訊。不過,一定要留意風險,因為被挾爆的未必一定是別人。

派錢不派錢 美政府陷兩難

自新冠病毒疫情開始,美國就接連出現革命,例如去年6月的BLM革命,演變成美版文革,隨着民主黨奪取政權,拜登還未淨化完畢,可憐蟲又在華爾街發動反革命活動。本來在建制派的主導下,可憐蟲只負責消費,美股才可以健康上升,但現在建制派發現,原來派太多錢給可憐蟲是有手尾的,所以,全民攤大手板(Universal Basic Income,UBI)的大重構(Great Reset)計劃可能胎死腹中。

另外,可憐蟲的不安分,令美國政府陷於兩難,派錢可憐蟲會在股市搞事,唔派錢可憐蟲又沒錢消費托股市,上周美股大調整,可能是反映建制派的進退失據。其實美股已現見頂信號,不只反映在許多從不談股票的人開始躍躍欲試入市,而是王弼留意到,這批人開始教股市老兵炒股,面對如此情况,花些少錢跟風夾空倉(或Buy Put跟華爾街為虎作倀)無妨,但大手筆入市,或須耐心等待時機。

香港奧國經濟學院院長 fb.com/buytillsuspension
[王弼 投資王道]

https://www.mpfinance.com/fin/columnist2.php?col=1463481133658&node=1612118907623&issue=20210201