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Wednesday, July 29, 2020

Hi-P posts 3.3% dip in 1H20 earnings to $24.2 mil

Felicia Tan Published on Wed, Jul 29, 2020 / 6:42 PM GMT+8 / Updated 5 hours ago

Hi-P International reported a 3.3% dip in earnings for 1H20 ended June to $24.2 million, from $25.0 million a year ago.

This translates to earnings per share (EPS) to 3 cents, down 3.8% from the 3.12 cents during the same period last year.

Revenue declined 5.1% y-o-y to $543.8 million mainly due to the Covid-19 disruptions in 1Q20 ended March. Hi-P says the decline was cushioned by higher turnover for 2Q20 ended June.

1H20 gross profit fell 10.1% y-o-y to $68.4 million while gross profit margin (GPM) contracted 0.6 percentage points to 12.6%, from 13.3% last year. This is due to the lower revenue, losses from the Covid-19 disruptions from Hi-P’s operations in China in February 2020, and higher depreciation of property, plant, and equipment.

Other income rose 61.4% y-o-y to $7.6 million mainly from the subsidies granted.

“We have initiated a business transformation campaign within Hi-P to sharpen our competitive edge. Notably, we have re-organized our management structure into two business units which are driven by two newly appointed Chief Operating Officers,” says Yao Hsiao Tung, executive chairman and CEO.

“This will enable us to better serve our customers and grow our businesses, and also part of our senior management development and leadership planning. Additionally, we are gathering momentum and continuously working on several initiatives including diversifying our production regions and customer base, ODM development, artificial intelligence aided system flows and automation, amongst others. All business functions and manufacturing sites have also initiated their own transformation plans as we embark on this holistic corporate transformation project,” he adds.

As at June 30, cash and cash equivalents stood at $318.1 million.

Shares in Hi-P closed flat at $1.29 on Wednesday (July 29), prior to the announcement.

湯文亮:地產界的大王

文章日期:2020年7月29日

【明報專訊】有老友話我在地產界撈了30幾年,算是有多少名聲,但始終未能在某一個範疇稱王,最多是被人叫做收租佬,可以算是失敗,老友鬧得冇錯,不過我除了天資不高外,亦淡薄名利,沒有刻意追求什麼王,不過,就算我非常努力,亦不會做到什麼王,自己知自己事,不能太苛求。

地產界稱王反成負累

地產界有很多王,例如舖王,摸王,豪宅大王,劏場大王等,他們其實都唔想得到那些稱號,因為他們知道,那些稱號是一個負累,以我自己為例,我很少與那些稱王的人做交易,對手太強,輸多贏少,始終有多少心理威脅,如果一定要做買賣,買的時候鋤價多一些,賣的時候要價多一些,如此來說,唔着數的應該是那些稱王的投資者。

宜向大炒家接「摸貨」

初出道時有前輩教我,如果唔想買錯,最好就是同那些大炒家接「摸貨」,畀10個8個%他們賺,當做驗貨費用都抵,這招的確可行,但很難過老闆的一關,要老闆接「摸貨」,佢話唔知道我有沒有枱底交易,我接「摸貨」的次數雖然很少,但每次都獲得巨額利潤,所以,前輩的理論是正確的,到了今日,反而有不少「摸貨」專家自怨自艾,認為如果不是不斷炒賣,今日所得利潤會有更多,我絕對同意。

有老友話我從不評論劏場,現在有很多人投資劏場失手,輸很多錢,如果我評論,或者會令到一些人懸崖勒馬,唔使輸身家,其實我亦有打算出文講買劏場風險,但我同一個小投資者講到這問題,他反問只用三兩百萬,就可以買到一個舖位,甚至比車位還要便宜,唔買就笨,原來買劏場的人以為是買一個舖位,而不是一個單位,我知道點講都唔會阻止到那些買劏場舖的人,兩年之後我又見到那位小投資者,於是問有冇再買劏場舖,佢話唔敢喇,見過鬼仲唔怕黑,我終於明白,不用撰文講劏場舖,因為未買過的人怎樣勸也要買,買過的人怎樣誘惑也不會再買,撰文講劏場舖簡直是浪費時間。

紀惠集團行政總裁
[湯文亮 敢說反話]

Monday, July 27, 2020

潘迪藍:美元崩潰徵兆 投資環境或大變


文章日期:2020年7月27日


【明報專訊】DXY美元指數顯示,美元近日已經跌回到3月份的恐慌低點。那時,所有資產的價格都跌至十分低迷,部分原因是有交易員要被隔離,沒有正常上班。當時,債券、股票、商品及貨幣的價格反映流動性不足,多過經濟基本因素。到了現時,實在很難再說金融資產的價格低迷是因為流動性不足。因為幾乎全世界所有主要的中央銀行(包括美國聯儲局)都已經採取行動,確保市場有充足流動性。因此,美元跌回美國爆發新冠肺炎初期的低位,看來跌穿了過去幾年交易範圍,是一個相當重要信息。

其實,美元現時匯率才是「真正」價格,突顯了全球投資環境的重要變化:我們正在進入一個弱美元世界。這可能有以下幾個原因:

美國經常帳赤字料再次惡化

一)美元短缺的理論已慢慢終結。在2008年環球金融海嘯爆發之前幾年,美國經常帳赤字介乎其GDP的4%至6%。這是一個很大的數字。即是說,美國消費者每年消費額其實比他們生產力高出4%至6%。最終結果是,美元現金持續流出到世界其他地區。

另一方面,世界其他地區面對如此慷慨的資金外流,亦樂於借入正在逐漸貶值的美元。但經過2008年的金融海嘯及頁岩能源革命之後,這種局面改變了,美國經常帳赤字減少,令全球好像面對美元短缺。

國際清算銀行曾經發表文件,關注其他國家的美元債務規模,當時是合理的。因為美國是西方主要經濟體當中唯一保持正利率者,這令以往累積的美元債務成為問題。但這已經是過去的情形,如今,美國利率亦大致處於零水平,曾經一度改善的美國經常帳赤字再次惡化。更重要的是,國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)在新型冠狀病毒肺炎危機之前對美國經常帳赤字的估計可能太過保守(見圖)。

隨着美國的M2(廣義貨幣供應量)每年以24.5%的速度增長,而且聯儲局已經向14家外國中央銀行授予掉期貸款,現在已很難再說全球面對美元短缺。

二)歐盟可能正在擺脫黑洞。經過2008至2009年危機暴露出歐元的「原罪」──在沒有財政聯盟支持下建立共同貨幣,之後,歐盟實際上經歷了迷失的十年。歐元設計缺陷,令到整個歐元區並非投資的好地方,因為無法對冲最大單一風險(歐元崩潰)。由於不可能看跌早已不存在的意大利里拉,意大利、西班牙甚至法國等國家普遍都成為長期資本的禁足區,從而擴大了歐元區不同成員國的生產力差異。

歐元正擺脫黑洞 成美元可靠替代品

現在的問題是,歐盟計劃實現以往缺乏的財政支柱,是否會改變上述情形。我們認為確實如此,如果不橫生枝節,這種變化意味着歐元將不再是外匯市場的二流選擇,對於全球的外匯儲備管理者和資產分配者而言,歐元將再次成為美元的可靠替代品。這並不是說歐元將會捲土重來大幅上升──歐洲仍有很多其他問題需要解決;但最低限度,歐元不會再長期走下坡。

三)亞洲並未像美國那樣,一味以貨幣手段來處理新型冠狀病毒肺炎危機。東方(以中國大陸為首)和西方(美國和歐洲)對於新型冠狀病毒肺炎危機的政策反應存在差異,令人回想起雙方對於1970年代初石油危機的反應。

當年,美國、英國和法國在1973年阿拉伯禁運石油之後,以增加貨幣貨幣供應來抵消石油價格上漲。但德國、瑞士和日本,儘管面對短期的經濟痛苦,還是選擇了提高油價。結果,美元、英鎊、法郎兌日圓、德國馬克、瑞士法郎貶值了長達十年之久。現在,我們又看到了同樣的分歧,以中國大陸為首的東方國家並未有大幅增加貨幣供應來應付新型冠狀病毒肺炎危機,而以美國為首的西方國家則拚命「印銀紙」來解決問題。

順帶一提,兩者截然不同的貨幣政策,可能部分解釋了為何近期中國國債孳息率攀升,而美國國債孳息率卻在低位橫行。這種長期利率差異,有可能導致美元進一步走弱。

政治不正確 風險增礙外資流入

四)美國的不確定性。美元最近貶值的另一種解釋,是美國最近的新聞相當令人沮喪。除了因為種族歧視引發示威和騷亂之外,美國無法應付新型冠狀病毒肺炎大爆發,政府內部又有很多分歧(白宮與國會和各州長意見分歧,州長和市長意見相左),每日的頭條新聞都不是甚麼好消息。

此外,隨着美國總統選舉愈來愈接近,政治不確定性也在不斷增加。假如民主黨在總統選舉中勝出,並提高企業所得稅、資本增值稅稅率,甚至可能引入向個人財富徵稅計劃,外國人是否還會繼續持有大批美國資產?

再者,鑑於創紀錄的高失業率,很難看到還有甚麼人會購買美元。當然,美國現時仍然是全球的科技領導者,但愈來愈多迹象顯示,科技世界未來將會分割成不同的區域(美國、中國大陸、歐盟、印度等),每個區域都有自己的制度、法規和領先者。

如果事情真的這樣發展,那麼過去十年主導全球的美國科技巨擘的股價可能會走低,這就可能會將美元拖低。可能會有人說,儘管近幾個月來出現很多壞消息,但美元一直表現得具有韌性。不過,美元的決堤可能現在才開始,隨着美元失守,未來有可能會出現一個與過去十年截然不同的投資環境。

GaveKal Dragonomics資深經濟師
[潘迪藍 國際視野]

潘啓才:新股投機有法

文章日期:2020年7月27日

【明報專訊】最近的抽新股及炒新股熱潮非常熾熱,如果亂咁去抽,亂咁去炒,呢啲叫做賭,但如果自己定一套方法去玩這類新上市股票,這便有機會把賭博變成投機。

上市費佔集資比例大 可視假集資

首先我們要懂得分辨什麼是真集資上市和假集資上市,這個不難,基本上如果上市費用佔去集資額的重要部分,便可以算是假集資上市,因為上市的目的就是為了做殼而上市,以近期的市况,假集資上市其實有很大風險,因為個殼唔易出手,然而因為種種原因,洗濕了頭,只好頂硬上。面對這種情况,大股東應該盡用各種方法,盡快把25%的股票沽給市場上的投資者。

先講一隻近期上市的股票,該公司上市時做足宣傳,甚至用名人效應,吸引散戶入飛認購,結果公開發售部分超額認購達到逾百倍,這個倍數觸動了回撥及重新分配機制;因此,令到公開發售的股票由發售股數的10%,激增至50%,假設這部分股票全部去了散戶手裏,這表示以已總發行股票計,已有12.5%的股份成功售給散戶。

真假集資股價走勢差別大

在此種情况下,最佳方法就是把餘下的貨散掉,因為既然手貨已經散了,應該趁超額認購反應好的餘威,盡快把餘下的貨沽掉,之所以這類股票在上市初段,基本上全無投資價值。

但另一類真集資的上市公司玩法卻完全不一樣,這類公司由於有實力,有賣點兼有前景,所以這類公司的股票有人願意長揸,就以在今年6月1日為首日掛牌的移卡(9923)為例,這公司的超額倍數達到640倍,亦因此同樣觸動回撥及重新分配機制,亦因此令到至少12.5%的貨出了街,所以手貨散了,但這種有實力的股票,雖然散了,肯揸的散戶亦不會隨便沽貨,同理,用配售形式沽出了的貨,可能有不少由基金所持有,仍唔係咁容易沽貨。這就解釋了,此股在過去一星期突然升了約一倍半的原因。

所以,同是新上市股票,同是高超額認購,但假集資股與真集資股的股價走勢命運,卻有着天與地的差別。

www.phemey.com
[潘啓才 通天財技]

Friday, July 24, 2020

How surfing taught me to make choices

I had to decide to stay upright on my surfboard. I didn't know it would help me stay upright in my life, too.
By Eve Fairbanks
Eve Fairbanks, a writer who lives in Johannesburg, is at work on a book about South Africa.
Feb. 25, 2015 at 7:00 p.m. GMT+8

On the last day of 2014, I tried surfing for the first time. Living in Cape Town, South Africa, I often heard surf bums go on about how you “learn who you are on the board,” but on the board I realized that truism was true: Or rather, you learn both who you are and who you could yet be.

Surfing distills into a pure physical moment the usually drawn-out, intellectual, complex challenge of simultaneously accepting what life throws at you and making the best of it. At first, when I fell, I felt a desperate desire for my teacher to tell me my mistakes were normal, that I didn’t measure up poorly against the others he’d taught. It was so similar to my yearning, often, to be reassured that my mistakes don’t reflect badly on my character.

After a mixed record of successes and failures, my teacher told me that at some point I just had to “decide to stay on the board.” Amateurs imagine adventure sports are all about skills: We have to acquire strength and muscle memory before we can accomplish a sporting feat. Professionals, though, know how psychological it is. It was astonishing to experience how great a difference simply making that decision and being tenacious about it made. Where I’d been falling most of the time, I began to catch every wave. Pleasure built upon pleasure, the certainty of my ability amplifying with each new trial.

Advisers often tell us we have to be confident about our decisions. That decisions come at the end of a certainty-acquisition process and simply ratify an inner truth. But in fact, it goes the other way: Decisions create confidence. That’s what I learned on my surfboard.

Last month, the New York Times ran a beautiful piece on surfing in Sierra Leone, where Ebola still lurks darkly just onshore. Nevertheless, the Bureh Beach boys continue to surf — “as therapy,” they say. It’s been my experience of actual therapy that the therapist tries to create a contained space in which you can practice making decisions on a shorter time frame and in a less complex context than real life. But perhaps the therapy we often need is a bit more metaphorical: the chance to practice strength, joy, acceptance and resilience physically rather than intellectually, at low stakes rather than high ones.

The idea that changing the way we move our bodies can change our mental gestures is gaining some ground. A TED talk by the social psychologist Amy Cuddy suggested that mere minutes of “power poses,” simple exercises in spreading our arms and standing tall, can change how we think about ourselves and make more fundamental choices. It went viral last year, becoming one of the most-viewed TED talks ever. “Let your body tell you you’re powerful and deserving, and you become more present, enthusiastic and authentically yourself,” Cuddy said; numerous studies have indeed shown that adopting a more “open” body posture really does help subjects act in confident ways, like selecting a seat at the front of a classroom rather than in the back.

For me, the experience on the surfboard stuck. Faced with on-land choices — the kind of choices I sometimes balk at — I felt my body on the board, choosing and succeeding to stay upright. It made it much easier to believe I could stay on the figurative board of a plan.

Celeste Pietrusza, a clinical psychology PhD candidate at Duquesne University, is conducting research into the ways survivors of physical or sexual abuse work to transform their embodied experiences of trauma. “[Psychological] symptoms can be deeply rooted with bodily experience, and the ability to experience one’s body differently — as resilient, as powerful — opens up new possibilities for psychological life, as the two (body and mind) aren’t easily separated,” she explained.

Yet this often remains a radical notion. Two mental-health professionals based at major teaching hospitals whom I asked about using bodily motion to promote psychic healing said “I don’t know” or “I haven’t received any training or met anybody who does work like that.”

That’s too bad. How many other kinds of actions besides “power poses,” from dance to touch, might transform our ways of thinking?

The problem is that what lies inside our minds is invisible. We can only imagine it. But we experience our bodies sensually. It’s so powerful to get a sense of our character as our bodies express it, as all of our senses perceive it.

Eve FairbanksEve Fairbanks, a writer who lives in Johannesburg, is at work on a book about South Africa.

Wednesday, July 22, 2020

Li Lu Sharing His Value Investing Insights

2 Ogos 2010 jam 12:38 PGAwam

Dear All,

We found a great article written by a Malaysian Value Investor on Li Lu, who has been commented by Charles Munger as the likely Chief Investment Officer candidate for Berkshire Hathaway. The below is an extract from http://mystockfolio.blogspot.com/2010/08/li-lu-sharing-his-value-investing.html

This past weekend was the Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A / BRK.B) annual shareholder meeting. At one point during the Q&A, a questioner asked Warren Buffett about the status of Berkshire’s CIO candidates. Charlie Munger remarked that one candidate who he is particular close with was up 200% in 2009 with 0 leverage. Some people think that the person Munger is referring to is Li Lu, a fund manager who turned Munger and Buffett onto BYD.

Lu personally owns at least 2% of BYD, which rose 400% in 2009. I don’t know anything about his investments beyond that one position, but I know he is a huge believer in taking concentrated, high conviction positions. If that is the case here, BYD’s spectacular results must have contributed a lot to his returns for 2009 which may make a 200% for the year possible.

Here is a brief bio on Lu:

Li Lu was born in China in 1966. He attended Nanjing University in China and later came to the U.S., and earned three degrees (BA, JD, MBA) simultaneously from Columbia University. After graduation, he worked in an investment bank until 1997, when he founded Himalaya Capital Management, which today manages both LL Investment Partners and Himalaya Capital Ventures, funds focused on publicly traded securities and venture capital. Li Lu was named a global leader for tomorrow by the World Economic Forum in 2001, and a Henry Crown fellow by the Aspen Institute in 1998. He is a member of Council on Foreign Relations and Young Presidents’ Organization.

Fortune: Barnstorm Green

There isn’t a whole lot of information about Lu’s investing style out there. But I thought I would share some notes from a lecture he gave to Columbia Business School back in 2006. All of this is paraphrased, so don’t take anything as a direct quote and there may even be some inaccuracies. Still, I believe you will find these notes insightful, especially with respect to improving your own abilities as an analyst and investor. Even if Lu is not a Berkshire Hathaway CIO candidate, he is an investor with a tremendous work ethic that we could all learn from.

Below are my notes from Lu’s lecture:

Li Lu at Columbia Business School – 2006

-15 years ago, Lu was accidentally brought in to a lecture by Warren Buffett. Had epiphany moment, Lu thought he could do something in the investment business.

-At the time, Lu had just escaped China. Did not know very many people. No money, deep in debt. Worried about making a living in the US.

-In the middle of Buffett speech, made him think differently about the stock market.

-The more Lu thought about it, the more he thought it was something he could do.

-Value investors see themselves as owners of a business. Therefore, fortunes are up and down with the nature of the business.

-You demand a margin of safety.

3 Traits of a Value Investor:

1. Basically, you don’t think of yourself as a paper shuffler who constantly buys and sells securities. You think of yourself as a real owner of the business.

2. You only own a small piece of the business, so you demand a huge margin of safety.

3. Because you think of yourself as an owner, not trading all the time, you think everyone else is different — like Ben Graham’s Mr. Market

On Value Investing

-Under 5% of all assets are run under value investors, a real minority in the investment world.

-The stock market is created for the other 95% of people, that is where your opportunity and challenge is.

-That was one lesson that stuck in Lu’s mind when listening to Buffett’s lecture.

-Biggest challenge: understand whether you are the 5% or the 95%

-It is tempting to do what the other 95% of people do. Emotionally very difficult to be in the 5%, but value investors typically have better returns. The money is really for traders and they tend to amass more assets.

-5% have a spectacular return, but 95% of money probably always resides to somewhere else.

-Understand who you are. You will be tested. You will have to ask yourself whether you are or aren’t a value investor.

-If you are a value investor, you are probably genetically mutated and comfortable being in the minority. This is unnatural to human beings. You have to be comfortable being by yourself. You have to adopt the idea that you are right because your reason and evidence, not because others agree with you.

-You will probably spend most of your time being an academic researcher rather than a professional. You are a researcher or journalist, with insatiable curiosity. You are trying to figure out how everything works.

-The more you know, the better you are as an investor.

-Politics, science, technology, literature, poetry, everything can affect businesses and help you.

-Occasionally you can find insights that will give you tremendous insights that other people don’t have.

-Then you find if the business is cheap. Is the management good? What else? Why is the opportunity there?

-Started fund in late 1997. Been through really traumatic events: Asian Financial Crisis, Tech Bubble.

-Fall of 1998: Lu’s search process is very general. Got hooked on value line, loved to read the whole thing from beginning to end. The best kind of education, you should do this if you want encyclopedic knowledge of companies. Go through it page after page, it is enormously helpful.

-First thing Lu checks is new low list. New low P/Es, P/Bs, etc.

-Does not care where something traded before.

-First looks at valuation. If the valuation doesn’t fit, doesn’t go beyond it.

-If you see a low P/B ratio, ask – What is in the book? How much is the book?

-Encyclopedic knowledge is helpful when looking across different industries.

-Look at pre-tax and pre-interest earnings. Look from an un-leveraged basis. Figure out how much capital is deployed in the business. Look at ROIC.

Example: Timberland

-Start by giving a 5 second look at the business. Timberland. The business is trading around clean book value, consisting mostly of tangible liquid assets, working capital, plus 100M in real estate. Deployed capital is 200M with 100M return.

-Then check why the business fell apart and became cheap. Think if you had owned the entire business at that price.

-At the time, was the height of the Asian Financial Crisis, saw their sales falling off the cliff in Asia. Any thing with exposure to Asia was falling apart. Try to check what other people are thinking about this. You may not listen to their advice but you may want to know what other people are looking at.

-Timberland had no other analysts covering it.

-Why no coverage?

-Look at business across years. Timberland has been growing, pretty profitable, did not need financial markets. Family owned. Owns 40% controlling 98% vote.

-Immediately, that is a turnoff to most people. You can do a quick data search.

-You need to have a curious, active mind to ask questions and find answers.

-Timberland had most of the vote, no analyst coverage, a bunch of shareholder lawsuits. If you were a member of the other 95% of the investment business you might say maybe management is milking the business.

-Download every court document lawsuit. Read it. You NEED a very curious mind to figure out WHAT is happening. Dig every single time. READ EVERYTHING.

-The first time, it takes a couple minutes to look over financials. Then gather questions and do deep research.

-Most lawsuits came from Timberland missing guidance, annoying investors, which annoyed the owner of the business. They decided to stop talking to Wall Street. So it was not about milking the business or fraud. They were not crooks.

-How do you determine if they are good managers? Decent people?

-Act like an investigative journalist. Most business owners leave a trail for you to follow and see how they deal with different situations. Most professional managers would not see this as part of their job, but YOU are part of their 5%.

-Go to their community, visit people they know, their Church, their Synagogue, introduce yourself to their friends and neighbors. It is worth it to spend as much time as possible, to find what these business people have done and what their neighbors say about them to accurately get an idea of their personality.

-The father seemed like a simple, decent guy, just a high school graduate. the son went to business school, was already COO of the company even though he was Lu’s age. Lu saw what boards the son sat on, and noticed that they had a mutual friend. Managed to get himself on the board with the son and became friends quickly. Came to realize these where high quality, very ethical businessmen.

-After all that, saw the stock was still trading low. Decided he did not miss anything. The other 95% may not have done enough research to see this or have some kind of institutional imperative that prevents them from owning.

-If you are not a good analyst, you will never be a good investor.

-But we decide to buy. How much do we buy? Imagine having $900. The other 95% will take tiny positions, 50 basis points. You need to use concentration, a $200 position. Think of how much work you did. Lu visited all the stores to see how margins improved – they had a fad going on where kids wanted the shoes. Their asian business is tiny, reduced earnings by less than 5%.

-Lu put a ton into Timberland. What happened after next 2 years? Stock went up 700%. Propelled by earnings. No real risk – went from trading at 5x earnings to 15x with earnings growing 30% a year. It adds up.

Be a Learning Machine

-When an investment opportunity comes, you have to seize it. Devote day and night so you can act quickly. Do everything complete but do it fast. You have to train yourself to jump on opportunity.

-When opportunity presents itself you can smell it. The only way to do that is by training yourself and reading page after page of financial report.

-Uses S&P manuals for viewing foreign stocks.

-As an owner, don’t think about per share information.

-Use your brain, when looking at stock manuals, each page should really only take 5 minutes. Don’t use calculators. Use mental math.

Example: Korean Company

-60M market cap, pre-tax earnings of 31M, roughly 2x pre-tax earnings.

-Book value of 230M, what constitutes book value? If you are an owner, look at: fixed assets, working capital, don’t count on goodwill.

-Basically you see with 60M in market cap, 30M in pre-tax, $240M in book value ($180M in fixed assets)

-It might be cheap.

-Determine what the earnings is. The book. The working capital.

-Use common sense, common logic and think about the business.

-Most employees never went to business school, Lu finds they are easier to train.

-Of the 70M in current assets, it is all cash

-Of 180M in fixed assets, they own 100% of a hotel, recorded 30M as book. Own 13% of a department store recorded as 30M.

-Look up the department store, it roughly has a market cap of 600M. 13% gives you roughly 80M. So the book value undervalues it by another 50M.

-They own 15% of 3 cable companies and a whole bunch of real estate.

-The department store has exactly the same profile. Trading roughly around cash and investments, good earnings, and own a whole bunch of assets. Turns out they are the second largest cable operator as well

-The department store operates like a hotel, do not take inventory, more like a shopping mall.

-They charge a percentage on the top line of all merchant sales.

-Put it all together: Paying 60M, 70M in net cash, another 100M in stock, 30M in hotel with a value that has not been changed in last 10 years while real estate market has gone up in 10 years. Went to Korea, looked at hotel and department stores.

-Checked recent transaction of properties in neighborhood, value is likely 2-3x what is on the book. But take what is on the book anyway, add 150M. Add that to rest and you get 320M in assets that you are paying 60M for and earning 30M annually from operations.

-Insiders own 50%

-Many factors going in your favor, but you need to look at how local investors see it. They need to be buying it for the price to go up.

-Department store used to trade at 22 went to 100

-This company was at 12 now trades around 70

-each went up 5-6x

Don’t just listen. Do it.

-This type of an approach is not natural to an investor.

-If you decide your personality fits in with the mutated gene pool, that this is something you might be looking to do, there is a lot of money in it — proven by Ben Graham to Buffett

-You have to put in a lot of work into your analysis.

-You can make a lot of money if you are really interested, listening, and actually DOING IT.

-Lu benefited from listening to his value investing class and then actually going out and doing the work required.

-Value investing is not really about theory, it is about what works.

-Young analysts have energy and nothing to lose, so they should go and do the work.

-Before you become a good investor, you need to be a good analyst.

Lu says you need two things to be a good analyst:

1. Provide accurate and complete information. You have to go to an extra length to get it done. Most of the time you will stand alone against everybody else. If you are not competent about what you know, you cannot possibly take conviction positions when things go into free fall and everybody else is laughing at you.

2. Most money is not made in stocks from the examples. They do not provide out-sized returns. You can do the Tweedy Brown/Graham or the Buffett/Munger school. Your returns will come from a handful of stocks. You need tremendous insight by continuous intense curiosity and study.

Investment Mistakes

-Most mistakes come from inaccurate or incomplete information.

-Biggest mistake: most people wanted 2 week or monthly returns. They wanted to go up in down markets.

-Lu’s biggest mistake was straying, was working with Julian Robertson, started shorting — have to think like a trader when you are shorting because your downside can be unlimited. It’s like Charlie Munger says — having your hands tied behind your back while getting into a fight.

-Missed the opportunity to buy a business below cash, even though Lu knew the management and had great insights. The business subsequently went up 50-100x. Could not bring himself to buy it because of his mindset at the time.

-You make a mistake when you have not finished your work but like it enough. You start betting on probabilities instead of real analysis.

Constantly search for ideas

-In your life, you may only have 5-10 key moments of insight. You only get it from continuous learning. Find an American business and then find the Asian counterpart. Some businesses studied for 15 years. You need to know what that business is, how it ticks, so you can swing with conviction. If you cannot do that you will not make huge out-sized returns.

-If you do what Ben Graham or Tweedy Brown does, you will make 15-20% returns but you wont make the huge returns of Buffett.

-The biggest ideas can give 10,000x returns.

-Opportunities are not easy to find. They require a lot of factors to come together – Charlie Munger’s lollapalooza. You need a whole bunch of things working together where you have the insight and are willing to bet.

-This is what drives Lu in business.

-Lu started in physics, mathematics, law, economics, got interested in other subjects. Wife has a PhD in biology, he has learned a lot from her.

-Learn from everything, be intensely curious

-Eventually you will stumble into one big opportunity.

-In the meantime, you will stumble into Timberland style investments which aren’t bad.

-There might be years without opportunities, then years with a lot of opportunities.

-Depends on what becomes available to you.

-They do not come in a steady pace, not like once a week an idea.

-In 6 years, Lu had maybe 3-4 great ideas. But you get progressively better and better, improving the amount of opportunities for you since you will be quicker at your analysis.

-Go through every day by learning something. In a year you have to learn a great deal.

-When Lu reads biology, physics, history, it is all searching for ideas. If one idea jumps out, it is all Lu does. Rest of the time is spent with wife and kids and Lu learns from them too, especially with seeing how human cognition develops which is enormously important.

Li Lu’s Investing Checklist:

1. Is that cheap?

2. Is it a good business?

2. Who is running it?

3. What did I miss?

-Lu goes through the checklist, ‘what did I miss’ is greatly affected by psychology. This kind of cognition happens early on and Lu learns it from interacting with his girls.

Three characteristics of a value investor:
1. Business owner mentality
2. Difference in time horizon
3. Demand a huge margin of safety

Think like a Business Owner

-It all comes from one thing, that you are a business owner. You cannot force management changes, so you demand a margin of safety. You have a long time horizon because you think like an owner.

-But why dabble with stock market? Stock markets are made for people who can dream. That is why 95% of people never buy into value investing. Human nature prevents it.

-You do not belong to the stock market but you have to understand its perspective to position yourself properly. If you are truly think like a business owner, you will eventually leave the asset management business and run a real company. That is why Buffett and Munger left it.

-Or you become a private equity investor.

-The people who the stock market is designed for are fundamentally flawed people. Traders are bound to make mistakes due to fear or greed. They will always make room for value investors.

-Used to be strict about selling with great business. Now, sometimes Lu feels he has insights about the business that allows him to believe the probabilities are in his favor for the business actually improving year after year.

-That is the law of distribution in good businesses. The leaders perform spectacularly well.

-Selling makes you pay a huge amount of tax and you might not get that good buying price again.

-If a business can generate 50-100% ROIC, the mathematics get interesting very quickly.

-Caveat: you have to be very confident. Investment bankers use BS and project into infinity. You cannot project that long. There are only a few opportunities where you can project that long.

-If you are good, and spend your entire lifetime studying, across 50 year career maybe 5-10 opportunities where you can confidently project the next 10-20 years. At that point, you don’t want to sell. By holding you don’t pay the tax on capital gains, so you are really compounding 40% interest free, the business is deploying the capital at 40-100% a year in a tax efficient manner. That is what you do.

-You have to identify businesses that are getting stronger and stronger every year.

-What makes one business more successful than others? Why are they making more and more money compared to others?

-The only way you can find that is by studying the ones that are established.

-Look for great businesses, not just businesses owned by Warren Buffett

Example of a great business: Bloomberg LP

-Product was superior to others, high switching costs

-Bloomberg is a fabulous case study, it came out of no where.

-Gained market share little by little, crossed a milestone point, became a monopoly

-At a certain point, after being highly relied upon for daily work, the switching costs become to high so winner takes all.

-Suppose you have an opportunity to see how an industry evolves early on. At a certain point they cross the line

-Maybe when introduced to all businesses. There is a time when that line gets crossed and a public company is poised to benefit by becoming a monopoly business.

-Why did Microsoft succeed over Apple? Little by little they eroded Apple’s 100% market share.

-Offices were using Windows. Today – do you have a choice of not using Bloomberg?

-Bloomberg visits almost every month and asks what you do, how you use the system. Bloomberg terminals have tens of thousands of functions, they don’t give you a manual

-They want you visually hooked so it is a behavioral connection and you don’t mind paying tens of thousands of years where you don’t have a choice if they raise prices

-They keep coming back to you because they know you are a trader and want to provide you with more services so you are hooked.

-That is why Bloomberg is a fabulous business because you get hooked. Think about switching from that or a competitor coming up with a rival product. How do you compete with that?

-Lu doesn’t know. Suppose you know the inflexion point. Do you want to invest? Lu would invest in Bloomberg at that point.

-You need insight. Study every business. They all have more or less this type of dynamic.

-Your job as a good financial analyst is to study that business ALL THE TIME. Observe those trends.

-Once in your life, maybe you will find that opportunity.

-Why doesn’t Bloomberg want to sell? He doesn’t need to sell.

-When you have a business like that, you don’t need to sell.

-Lu has made many private investments, ex: CapitalIQ, which copies Bloomberg’s business model. Same method with an investment in an engineering service.

-Lu likes to know as much as he can. He likes to be friends with people, with Timberland, the CEO and his son actually became investors in Lu’s fund.

-You can learn and observe from everyday business decisions and learn dynamics.

-Nothing is constant. Everything is changing that is why you have to keep learning.

-Businesses change, Microsoft has threats now.

-You need an active mind, so you are prepared to act and you can seize opportunity due to your insights. 

Monday, July 20, 2020

The Next Rally - Invest In FRONTKN, DUFU, PENTA, FPGROUP, and TIME

For Investment and Trading tips, join our private Telegram Channel Rabbit Trader Turtle Investor

Which stocks have the potential for massive growth? (Higher growth = higher revenue = higher stock price), they are Semi-Conductors, Internet of things, A.I., and Industry 4.0 stocks. These companies export their products and services all over the world, they are not limited to the small Malaysian market, therefore the growth potential is enormous once the economy rebound. A recent survey by CSG-CIMB reveals that most investors are bullish on the semi-conductor and technology sector.
Growing Revenue + Growing Market + Growing Profits = Growing Stock Prices.
USA Vaneck Vectors Semiconductor ETF Index Fund (SMH) is breaking out and on uptrend, verify yourself now!
These companies are "Buy and hold" type, for long term capital gains, not for trading or speculating.
These companies are well managed and profitable, reasonable PE, low debt or net cash.

CoVid has accelerated the adoption of tech.

Semi-conductor and internet will be the next stock rally once the glove bubble pops.

Please use dollar-cost-averaging investment strategy, don't gamble, don't use margin.

TheEdge - Global semicon manufacturing equipment billings up 13% y-o-y in 1Q2020, says SEMI

Tech (Semi-Conductors) demand powers Taiwan export order growth to 2-year high in June 2020.

Social Capital CEO Chamath Palihapitiya's case against stock buybacks, dividends.

Dividend stocks are companies that gives up on growing, they are telling the investors that we do not know what to do with the cash or how to use the profit to grow the company. In the long run, dividend stocks will lose market value. Good examples are YTL, Genting, Digi, Maybank, Public Bank, these dividend stocks gives good dividends but their market value over the years will continue to decline, remain stagnant or increase very little compared to growth stocks. Don't believe me, look at their 10 years chart, what is their capital appreciation since 2009's bottom? Go check the chart.




FRONTKN 0128 [ Precision Cleaning Services ]
NOTE: 5th August 2020 - Potential share buyback announcement [ Price Will Increase! Buy Now! ]

TSMC's subcontractor (Biggest chip manufacturer in the world), Frontken services their chip making machines. Apple outsource their chips to TSMC, and Apple is moving towards their own Apple Silicon chip, this means even more business in the coming future. A growth stock. Will we be using more or less chips? If the answer is more chips in everything from cars to smartphones, from TV to aircon, then invest now for long term growth!

Read: Precision Cleaning Services Market to See Huge Growth in Future by 2020-2028

DUFU 7233 [ Cloud Hard Disks ]
NOTE: 3rd August 2020 - Bonus Issue, Ordinary shares 1:1 [ Price Will Increase! Buy Now! ]

Hard Disk Spacer maker for Seagate, Toshiba, Western Digital. HDD is slowly being replaced by SSD, but with the super growth of cloud computing, HDD will still outsell SSD in the enterprise market because a 16TB SSD is 10X more expansive than a 16TB Enterprise HDD, and High Performance HDD for cloud servers uses 3 or 4 times more spacer components than the typical consumer PC. It is Estimated that Enterprise HDD market value will double from 2020 to 2025. Massive growth as more people get used to the new internet lifestyle. All digital content created and consumed online, including this website, video streaming, apps, gaming, eBooks, music and more are stored in the HDD cloud server. Will we be using more or less internet? If the answer is more and more people will use the internet daily, then invest now!

Read: Enterprise SSD vs Enterprise HDD [ Enterprise HDD shipment grew faster than Enterprise SSD ]

PENTA 7160 [ Robotic Automation ]
NOTE: 4th August 2020 - Bonus Issue, Ratio 1:2 [ Price Will Increase! Buy Now! ]

They are hardware makers, automation is one of their key selling point. As labour becomes more expensive, automation is the solution. They are the biggest robotic automation company in Malaysia with a global footprint. Study shows world population will decline in 2050, we are entering an aging population, this means we need more automate machines due to the lack of labours. Currently they are expanding into EV and the medical industry by offering automated equipments for the related field, potential growth as the company is always seeking to expand and grow.

Read: Pentamaster eyes new business to offset smartphone segment

FPGROUP 5277 [ 5G Networks ]

They make key test components for 5G. In the next few years, we will be moving towards 5G networks, this means guaranteed growth as the entire world gradually move towards 5G. Unlike 3G or 4G, the 5G network requires even more towers, this means the demand for their product will be high. Will the world upgrade their networks to 5G or continue to use 4G forever? If the answer is we will move to 5G, then invest now!

Read: FPGROUP vs JFTECH - This little-known Malaysian company may be a trade war prize

TIME 5031 [ Submarine Cables / Cloud ]

They own quite a number of internet submarine cables around the world. As more and more people use the internet, this means they earn even more money. They are continuously laying down more cables around the world. They are also moving towards cloud computing, data cloud, securities and more. Potential growth as more and more companies adopt the internet first policy. Will everyone use more internet or less? If the answer is more, then don't wait, invest now!

Read: TIME dotcom's International Submarine Cables

【又见榴梿成熟时/01】甘榜榴梿,味道千变万化,有惊也有喜

2020-07-20 07:00:00 

周刊专题

甘榜榴梿


近年来市场上一窝蜂追求名种榴梿如猫山王、黑刺、竹脚、红虾等,榴梿价越来越贵,与此同时,价格低廉的甘榜榴梿,开始受到越来越多人的关注和青睐。

这一次,我们来到彭亨州淡马鲁的小市镇──联增(Lanchang)。在这里,许多甘榜人与榴梿树有着密不可分的情感关系,几乎家家户户屋后都种有些名不经传的甘榜榴梿;以榴梿入菜的料理“Tempoyak”,更充分展现本土的饮食风味。

什么是甘榜榴梿?

甘榜榴梿,也被称为米果,即还没向农业部注册的榴梿。这些遍布各个州属地区,价格低廉,每公斤10、12令吉不等。甘榜榴梿的品质参差不齐,其味道有的甜有的苦,果肉色泽有黄有白,有的吃下去软糯香甜、满颊生香,有的却说不出的奇怪,难以笔墨形容。

在还没掰开榴梿壳之前,你总是猜不到这一次味道如何。也正因如此,甘榜榴梿总是藏着许多惊喜,好吃当然开心,不好吃也不会觉得不值得。

闻名遐迩的猫山王,也曾是甘榜榴梿,因品质和收成稳定,经注册以后,坊间名气逐渐增大,需求增多而价格走高。也因此,市场上许多榴梿园主更倾向种植猫山王、D24等名果,原来产量排名第一的甘榜榴梿,也快被产量排名第二的猫山王所追上。

阿末为家中20多年树龄的甘榜榴梿取名“Tok Dilir”。

榴梿园伫立着阿末亲自搭建的小木屋,用来休息和煮食。


每家每户都有甘榜榴梿踪影

位于彭亨的淡马鲁县是西马半岛的中心点,也是全马最大的食物生产园,不单单有名产菠萝蜜,还有番石榴、木瓜等等,更以盛产巴丁鱼闻名,著名景点包括瓜拉甘达大象保育中心、鹿园等。在这里,无论是种植还是饮食,都保留着甘榜人的乡土风情。

榴梿园主阿末(Ahmad bin Mustaman)居住在淡马鲁的一个小市镇──联增,也是Bolok Hilir甘榜的村长,在当地,人人都称他为“Tok Empat”,即村长的称谓。

据悉,住在这甘榜的马来人,每家每户几乎都有小块地,种上几棵榴梿树。自家种的甘榜榴梿,大多不为赚钱,而是自家人吃,既会拿来种价值较高的猫山王,也保留着许多从上一代传下来的甘榜榴梿。

在阿末的屋后,就有一块大约3英亩的园地。在他带领下,我们走到他屋后。呈斜坡型的果园,种了约20棵榴梿树,包括甘榜榴梿、猫山王、D24,以及其他果树。

甘榜榴梿本没有名字,都是园主按喜好取名。阿末特别介绍他家的甘榜榴梿树,“Tok Dilir”,乍听像是英文“Not Delay”(不会延期),难道是寓意果王丰收期不会延迟?

原来,这果树种子是从他务农的公公那里取得。他笑着解释:“‘Tok’指的是公公,‘Dilir’是因为这果园和这棵树种在这条村子(di Hilir)。”取这个名字,主要为了纪念公公和树的源头。

也是在细谈之后才得知,在阿末出生的两三年后,他爸爸就因病去世,由务农的妈妈撑起整头家,养活一家8口。小时候,每天放学后,阿末就会在田里和橡胶园里工作帮忙,每天跑动漫山遍地,对大自然的喜爱和农耕知识,也从那时候开始培养。

如今打理屋后的果园是自己的兴趣,也是放松的地方。由于果园不大,基本自己一人打理有余,因为有村长职务在身,需要处理村里面的社区问题,忙起来时,就会雇人来帮忙除草之类的工作。阿末表示,种植是乐趣,每当榴梿收成时,主要拿给家人和亲友分享,剩余的才拿来摆卖。每到榴梿飘香的季节,阿末便会拿榴梿来招待朋友。

甘榜式种植,什么品种都有

他分享,该地方人民大多以务农为主,村里种甘榜榴梿的人很多,当中有的味道堪比名种榴梿。由于村子不大,每家每户似乎都知道彼此家里种着什么果子,想吃哪个甘榜果,就会跟那园主找榴梿,来往频密。

“大规模种植的榴梿园,几乎只种名种榴梿树,需要专业的管理方式和种植知识。传统的甘榜果园则不同,参了很多不同品种的榴梿以及其他果树,园主都用‘甘榜式种植法’。”据悉,甘榜里的小园主都有自己的工作,平时很少照顾果树,每当季节来临前,才特别去打理,每当收成时,主要拿给家人和亲友分享,多出来的才卖给外人。

提起去年果子丰收时,阿末兴奋说道:“整个果园的20棵榴梿树,一个早上就装满三四辆鸡公车,加上屋子位于马路边,人家站在门外就能看到后山的满园果子,有时不必摆档,人们就直接来家里采榴梿。”

小地方的甘榜榴梿,大概卖10、12令吉不等。“乡里生意,没计较赚太多,有时开档卖榴梿,就会跟着市场价。比如猫山王,我卖大概35令吉而已,如果卖40、45令吉,会觉得不忍心(tak sampai hati),毕竟来吃的人都是朋友或相熟的人。”

榴梿入菜,齿颊留香

甘榜人与大自然的关系紧紧相扣,煮食烹饪,都会把当地食材加入料理中。吃不完的榴梿果肉也不浪费,拿来做成各种美味佳肴。

发酵榴梿酱巴丁鱼(Patin Tempoyak)

淡马鲁的榴梿名气虽不如劳勿文冬,但在这里,有一道非常有名的料理──发酵榴梿酱巴丁鱼(Patin Tempoyak)。

巴丁鱼是淡马鲁的名片之一,因流过的彭亨河水质适合养殖淡水鱼,这里的巴丁鱼吃起来不会有泥味,肉质鲜美而刺少。

Tempoyak,即发酵榴梿酱。将去壳的榴梿果肉碾成泥状,加些许盐与果肉搅拌,放在容器内,盖好并凉置3天后放入冰箱保存,让其继续发酵,待要煮食时,就可直接当作酱料般拿来备用。发酵榴梿酱没有保存时限,根据马来友族的说法,发酵榴梿酱存放越久,风味越佳。有的人家中,还会有一个小冰箱,专用来存放一罐罐的发酵榴梿酱。很多华裔爱吃榴梿,却未必认识这道发酵榴梿酱。在淡马鲁,很多商店都有售卖冷冻Tempoyak,全年都可品尝到。

来到淡马鲁的人,都一定会吃发酵榴梿酱巴丁鱼。糅合了巴丁鱼和发酵榴梿酱,加入火炬姜花蕾(Bunga Kantan)、小辣椒、老黄瓜等食材熬煮而成。入口时榴梿和姜的香气扑鼻而来,鲜嫩肥美的巴丁鱼,融合了各种食材配料的芳香,让舌间流窜着酸辣辛香而又尝到淡淡的榴梿滋味。或许很多习惯吃榴梿的人都不爱吃榴梿副产品,但这样的搭配并不突兀,反而让味蕾带来另一种意想不到的体验。
阿末家存放在雪柜里的冷冻Tempoyak。来到淡马鲁的人,都一定会品尝这道Patin Tempoyak。

Ulam

Ulam,一种富有地方特色和健康的饮食,采用金钱莲(Daun Pegage)、遮令豆(Jering)、帝皇乌兰(Ulam Raja)、黄瓜等富有营养价值的新鲜野菜,搭配酱料而吃, 如同沙拉吃法,是马来友族桌上常见的菜肴。

以榴梿入菜的榴梿辣椒酱,甘榜人叫它叁巴,由榴梿果肉、小辣椒和盐搅拌制成,不需开火烹煮。马来人一般将Ulam配着白饭来吃,入口是野菜的苦涩味、辣椒的辛辣、榴梿的馥郁,非常下饭。Ulam是马来人桌上常见的菜肴,搭配香浓辛辣的榴梿辣椒酱,非常送饭。


榴梿糯米饭(Serawa Durian)

就像泰国有芒果糯米饭,本地人桌上也会有榴梿糯米饭,Serawa Durian榴梿酱的做法简单,以榴梿果肉和糖、椰浆制作而成,若加上班兰叶更有提香作用。

每当果王季节来临,马来人就会做些榴梿糯米饭来吃,当作下午茶甜点。榴梿香,椰浆浓,配上软糯的糯米,非常滋味。据悉,也有些华人和马来人喜欢把Serawa Durian搭配白粥或白饭来吃,别有风味。Serawa Durian Pulut, 榴梿香,椰浆浓,配上软糯的糯米,非常滋味。
作者 : 蒙慧贤、摄影:陈启基
文章来源 : 星洲日报 2020-07-20

乐观看待前景·云升放眼攫更多海外契机

2020-07-17 10:05:38 
企业诊断

(吉隆坡16日讯)手握101亿3000万美元(约433亿令吉)订单的云升控股(YINSON,7293,主板能源组),正面乐观看待2021财政年前景,同时也将稳步在印度、欧洲、巴西、越南等国开发再生能源契机。

持433亿订单

首席执行员林镇严表示,尽管布兰特原油价此时游走于每桶43美元上下,浮式生产储油卸油船(FPSO)业务是长远的,且目前竞争减少,一些大客户如巴西国家石油公司的油气计划仍然持续。

也是集团执行董事的林镇严,今日在第27届股东大会后线上汇报会指出,FPSO订单短则10年,最长可达25年。执行主席林汉荣、非独立非执行董事林汉如陪同。

“原在非洲加蓬的FPSO ALLEN今年初经转换后已转到尼日利亚岸外及易名Abigail-Joseph,预期这个财政年下半年开始贡献。”

另外,巴西去年获得巴西FPSO计划,将做出全年贡献,因此他预计这个财政年会有更好业绩。

林镇严认为,集团截至2021年1月31日截财政年,净利不会按年下跌。“虽然过去两年油气业务低迷,不过所有同侪有足够的FPSO计划在手,目前竞争者也不多。”

积极竞标巴西国油FPSO

云升控股积极竞标巴西国家石油公司的FPSO计划,并且投资太阳能计划的未来环保能源。

林镇严指出,岸外支援船(OSV)服务目前达100%产能使用,很久未在此业务扩张,在此时机潜藏一些契机。

他披露,公司在印度再生能源资产有35%持股,目前已开始贡献。不过其油气服务业务达8亿至9亿令吉营运盈利,再生能源贡献仍然微不足道。

他强调,印度幅员广阔而对能源需求殷切,从低基础可获长足增长;他形容这是一个具无限潜能的地区,短至中期可稳定作贡献。

“旗下此区块首席执行员前此曾在欧洲发展,因此除了放眼欧洲;也会在巴西、越南等地区觅契机。”

该家第六大FPSO商积极竞标巴西的20亿美元计划,若成功料将展开5亿至7亿令吉发股筹资,专注交付Marlim2计划和巴西石油公司的计划。

云升控股目前有20亿令吉现金在手,林镇严表示,若有需要会展开发股筹资。截至财政年首季,净负债比为0.76倍。

谈到为股东创造价值,他说,这包括股价上涨与每年派发6仙股息,不过基于目前业务仍有进一步发展潜能,因而需在回馈股东与业务发展取得平衡。

询及收购新加波上市公司Ezion公司最新进展,林镇严说,目前需调适整个收购结构,正与银行洽谈中,须平衡风险与回酬。

他表示,若谈不拢,有关2000万美元定金潜在报销。

文章来源 : 星洲日报 2020-07-17

Friday, July 17, 2020

趁价值浮现增持17家公司 公积金局次季抄底马股

2020年07月15日



(吉隆坡15日讯)马股在2019冠状病毒病疫情和管控令冲刷下浮现价值,雇员公积金局(EPF)次季增持了多个股项,显示该局趁低吸购马股。

该局官网今天公布次季30大持股名单显示,此次共增持17家公司,包括柏马汽车(BAUTO,5248,主板消费股)、马电讯(TM,4863,主板电信与媒体股)、国家能源(TENAGA,5347,主板公用事业股)、联昌国际(CIMB,1023,主板金融股)、大众银行(PBBANK,1295,主板金融股)、IJM(IJM,3336,主板建筑股)和森那美种植(SIMEPLT,5285,主板种植股)等。

柏马汽车最获青睐

其中,最获青睐的要属柏马汽车,该局次季共加码买进3.13%股权,至18.29%,排名从首季时的12名,跃升至第4名。

同时,榜单上共有9家公司遭该局减持,如兴业银行(RHBBANK,1066,主板金融股)、云升控股(YINSON,7293,主板能源股)、吉隆甲洞(KLK,2445,主板种植股)和PPB集团(PPB,4065,主板消费股)等。

此外,马建屋(MBSB,1171,主板金融股)依旧蝉联榜首,公积金局持股率维持在64.48%。

若按领域来看,银行及种植股仍占最大份额,分别拿下7个和5个席位。

这次榜上的成员变化不大,仅迎来1位新成员,即IOI集团(IOICORP,1961,主板种植股),而跌出榜的是砂查也马特(CMSB,2852,主板工业股)。

股价恢复散户难追

马六甲证券研究主管刘礼誉接受《南洋商报》电访时指出,公积金局次季是趁低入场吸纳,拉低投资成本。

“由于3月和4月整个马股大幅走跌,个股股价蒸发30%到40%左右,价值浮现,该局算是趁低进场。”

他补充,该局投资布局属于长期策略,可以等待低价才伺机而动。

不过他点出,当前大部分股价已恢复至疫前水平,因此投资者目前无法效仿。

他建议投资者可在科技领域中,寻找股价尚未回升的股项,例如在首季和次季遭重挫的电子制造服务(EMS)公司。

Thursday, July 16, 2020

ComfortDelGro to see “very weak” results for 1H2020, but worst is over: DBS

Jovi Ho Published on Thu, Jul 16, 2020 / 1:57 PM GMT+8 / Updated 6 hours ago

SINGAPORE (Jul 16): Transport operator ComfortDelGro is expecting “very weak” results for 1H2020, owing to a sharp drop in ridership during the circuit breaker period.

ComfortDelGro is also offering massive rebates to its fleet of more than 13,000 taxis in Singapore.

On that, DBS Group Research is maintaining its “buy” call with an unchanged 12-month target price of $1.68.

“[We expect ComfortDelGro’s] 1H2020 results to be in dire straits, slipping into a net loss position… given the operational impact from Covid-19, coupled with impairment on its investments,” notes DBS Group Research analyst Andy Sim in a July 15 report.

The report comes on the back of a rebate extension by ComfortDelGro for its taxi hirers from Jul 16 to Aug 15. A 40% taxi rental rebate now replaces the 50% taxi rental rebate hirers have enjoyed from Jun 2 to Jul 15.

This is on top of a daily $10 rebate provided under the Government Special Relief Fund, announced earlier in February, to defray rental costs borne by hirers and relief drivers.

“This is largely in line with our earlier views that rental rebates are likely to taper as the reopening gains pace and normality reverts. We have already assumed in our earnings estimates that rental rebates will last till September,” notes Sim.

Sim estimates that the company will spend approximately $120 million on rebates, “including the full rental waivers for the months of April and May, and rebates prior and after.”

ComfortDelGro is expected to see a fall in EBITDA to $694 million in FY2020F from $869 million in FY2019.

With the poor showing, Sim notes that ComfortDelGro is unlikely to pay an interim dividend. “We do expect a final dividend to be paid, but this is likely to be based on its 50% payout ratio under its dividend policy.”

That said, Sim maintains DBS’ view that “the worst is over”, and ComfortDelGro is headed for a gradual recovery.

“The share price has retraced towards the price when we upgraded the stock to ‘buy’, and the recent weakness is a buying opportunity. In the immediate term, the market may be concerned with the upcoming interim results. We believe its current valuation of 1.2x P/B at -2SD of its historical average should have priced in the negatives and provides support,” he adds.

Shares in ComfortDelGro are trading flat at $1.48.

中医——尚礼的医学 - 刘力红

长篇巨献:“中医——尚礼的医学”
2019-04-02 由 雷涛医师 發表于健康

刘力红三和书院

中斯医在兹

通过跟师和长期的思考,近年我提出了“中医是尚礼的医学”的观念。这个观念不是我创造的,孙思邈在他的著述里已讲到“上医以德治国,中医以礼齐人,下医以刑治病”。中医学作为一门医学,疗效是硬道理。中医不仅要近期疗效,更要远期疗效,这就要对“医”有一个长远的考虑,有一个深入的认知。

一、医为仁术

什么最能体现中医的理念、精神和文化?我认为是“医为仁术”。“医为仁术”这个提法大家都很熟悉,但,正因为太熟悉了,反而容易忽视它的意义。这些年我对这个提法进行了深入的思考研究,发现它是我们能够从理念、精神、文化这三要素去认识中医的重要门径。

我们经常讲中国文化的四大元素,是儒释道医。儒释道是中国文化的三大支柱,医紧接其后,可见医之重要。所以,儒释道医之间存在着千丝万缕的联系。若从这个角度看医,那医就不孤立了。我们经常讲“中医是生长在中国文化土壤里的瑰宝”,那么这个土壤是什么呢?就是儒释道。所以,中国文化之间要贯通起来,真正地贯通后,理念、精神与文化这三要素自然具足。

儒家以“仁”为本。《论语》开篇谓:“学而时习之,不亦说乎?有朋自远方来,不亦乐乎?人不知而不愠,不亦君子乎?”之后紧接着就是:“君子务本,本立而道生;孝悌也者,其为仁之本欤?”一旦有了这个“本”,儒家的道统就建立起来了。那么这个道统走的是什么线路呢?走的是孝悌这条线,由孝悌而忠信而仁义,最后达到“仁者爱人”。这是“仁”在儒家的地位。

“仁”在佛教的意义,我们可以通过佛的名号了解,“佛”在梵语里叫“Buddha”,是觉悟的意思。佛有很多名字,而释迦佛一个很形象的称谓叫“能仁”。“能仁”是佛!当然这个“能”是根本的“能”。由“能仁”这个称谓可知,佛教认为,人性最根本的“能”之一就是“仁”(另一个根本的能是智慧),如果人性中这个根本的“能”全面地展现开来,那就意味着成佛。而仁的另一种表达便是慈悲,为什么所有成佛的人都很慈悲?就因为他的根本是仁。

道家对“仁”的认识似乎有一点奇怪,道家经常不以仁为仁,如老子曰“天地不仁,以万物为刍狗”,“圣人不仁,以百姓为刍狗”“大道废有仁义”,是不是老子不讲仁呢?非也。不是老子不讲仁,而是不以仁为仁,不执著仁。为什么不执著?因为这是道的本体、道的本怀,道之外没有仁,所以你在道外去寻仁,实际上已经离道十万八千里了,他讲的实质是这个,实际上跟佛教讲能仁是极其一致的。

医怎么看待仁?我们从“医为仁术”这个提法就能大致体味到仁与医的关系。“医为仁术”,学中医一定要对其有根本的认识,否则为医是很困难的。

“天有时,地有财,能与人共之者,仁也”。太公的这个定义把仁的内涵很巧妙地勾勒出来了。我们看“仁”的造字,左边是一个单人旁,右边是齐头的两横。右边的这两横,上一横表天,下一横表地,左边的单人旁表人。所以,仁的造字已然涵括了天地人的要素,也就是三才的要素。我们中医是研究什么的?如果说中医有一个范畴,那就是三才,就是天地人!《内经》讲:“夫道者,上知天文,下知地理,中知人事,乃可以长久。”大家想想看,这不就是仁吗?不就是仁的造字所现吗?

“天有时”,天给我们的是什么?太阳的东升西降,月亮的阴晴圆缺,天体的运行带来时间的变化,带来四气的变化,带来寒热温凉的变化,这就叫天有时,时是天的一个要素。地呢?有财,具足财富。因为万物都生长在大地上。那么人呢?人处于天地之间,人能否享用到天时地财?那就要看能否与之相共了。太公对仁的定义,充分揭示了天地人三者之间的关系,天地人之间的相共相和。

人必须跟天地相共相和,才能得到天时地财的养育,才会感受到天地的恩德和眷顾,这个就叫做仁。天地每一刹那都在给予我们,而我们却浑然不知。前段时间我在思考“感恩”这两个字,感到非常地震撼。感是什么?感是感应、感知、感通,传统文化非常强调这个“感”,我们看《易经·系辞》对易的定义:“易,无思也,无为也,寂然不动,感而遂通天下之道。”

圣人告诉我们,对于天下之道、天下的学问,我们透过什么方式才能知道?通过感通。这是做传统学问的关键。不知感通,上不了路!那什么是感恩?对于天地的恩德,我们首先要能感知到、感受到、感觉到,这叫做感,这是最大的感,但芸芸众生有几人能感知到天地给我们的恩德?知感恩者仁也。我们必须跟天地有这份感,才能跟它相和,最后才能建立仁的次序,才能跨入医的门槛。

此外,我刚刚讲ren,大家可能分不清楚我是讲人类的人还是仁爱的仁?但你有感恩心你就分得清楚,感通嘛!从语音上,我们分不清,因为人、仁是一个声音。老子讲,“声音相和”,为什么仁和人是同一个声音,大家想过没有?我这些年研究文字,觉得文字最大的奥秘在声音里,而不在六书里。声音为文字之本,六书为文字之末。何以故呢?大家想想,人类开始用声音来表达思想,多少年之后才有文字出现?我们追溯到文字的起源,最多不过八千年。在有文字出现之前,人类有太长的时间是用声音在表达思想,所以大家一定要注意文字的声音,尤其是同声同音字,这是奥妙中的奥妙。

为什么人类的人和仁义的仁同音?这就意味着二者的必然联系。仁者人也,人者仁也。所以,我们作为立于天地之间的这个人,你必须是懂得仁的,你必须是能够跟天地感通的。人能够与天地共,你才符合人的基本条件。圣人造字,把两个不同的字放在一个声音里面,必有其甚深的法义隐含其中。仁与人的声音相和,实际上已经揭示了仁是人的本能。

为什么说医为仁术呢?因为医就是去认识这个本能、去体察这个本能。中医所要做的事情不就是这样吗?细细品味,确实是这样。所谓中医就是去认识、体察人的这一本能,而人的健康(或康健)就是具足这一本能。如果违此或者失此本能,就是疾病。据此,我对医作出了以下的定义:察知违失本能(仁)之所在而调之,使恢复本能(仁)者,即为医也。故曰:医为仁术。

医何以为仁术?它是这样一个路线。不仅是从道德层面讲,医要有父母心,这当然是必须的,而这个父母心亦另有深意,父母心就是天地心,就是仁!失却此心,必然患病。医的责任、医的功用就是去体察、去认知他如何违失此心,并使之恢复,这就叫做医。医为仁术,是在这个层面安立才堪称仁术,否则,只能说这是一个道德的口号,而不具有学术内涵。如果我们由此深入思考,那医为仁术就具有深广的学术空间,它就真正体现了理念、精神、文化这三要素。

二、达成仁的路径

我在思考用“达成”一词是否妥当,因为我们前面讲仁是人性的本能,人性的本能不是造作出来仁,或者说回归仁、回归本体,对此儒家是什么样的路径呢?

1.克己复礼为仁

《论语》第十二篇“颜渊”中有一段精彩问答。颜渊问夫子:“何为仁?”夫子没有直接答复,绕了个弯子,说“克己复礼为仁”,这个解答不像今天的名词解释,而只是给出了一个到达仁的路径“克己复礼”!这也告诉我们,仁是很难用逻辑语言去表述的。

又比如“仁者爱人”,意思是当你成为仁者后,你一定是爱人的,而这个爱人是无条件的。你对我好,我爱你,你对我不好,我也爱你;你品德好,我爱你,大家认为你人品很差,我还是爱你。当你成为仁、进入仁者的境界,你散发出来的就是这种爱人的气息。也就是说,你只要按照克己复礼去做,慢慢就能够体味到那个仁。

由此可见,回归仁的路径是什么?就是一个“礼”。那实现礼的路径又是什么?是“克己”。透过克己来复礼,透过复礼我们去知仁、去见仁、去体仁。由探讨医为仁术,推演到探讨克己复礼,这个逻辑关系就这样呈现出来了,学问也就是这样层层深入的。

2.礼的旨归和作用

中国是礼仪之邦,尤其儒家,非常强调礼,六经中专门有一部《礼经》。“礼”讲的是什么,礼的旨归和作用是什么?我们透过《论语》《礼记》可以大致作一个归纳,礼实际讲的是规矩、次序。那么规矩和次序,又是为了达到什么目的呢?是为了实现一!

为了便于理解,我们可以先看看军歌《三大纪律八项注意》,这首歌中有这样一句“步调一致,才能得胜利”。“三大纪律八项注意”可以看作是军队的礼,是每一位军人都必须遵从的规矩和次序。这个规矩、次序、这个礼是为了实现什么?是为了实现步调一致、万众一心。所以,我们的礼、我们的教育,是为了实现一,我们要有这个认识。

礼的旨归是为了实现一,而一又是什么的根本呢?是整体性的根本!亦即中医两大特征之一的整体观念的根本。一的现代表述是一致性,因为只有一致才有可能整体。所以,礼实际上是为了实现整体性。为什么说中医是尚礼的医学?至此,大家应该略有领受。

近年我读了欧文·拉兹洛的一本书,印象很深,作者曾经两次被提名诺贝尔奖。他的这本书叫《全球脑的量子跃迁》,我很希望大家读一读。这本书的很多内容我虽然也没读懂,但对于它对一的表述、一致性的表述,却感到非常赞叹。一致性是现代科学领域的顶级观念,由于量子之间的干涉或缠绕,导致量子之间存在不可思议的一致性,而由量子的一致性,就带来了一切领域的一致性。

这里介绍几个一致性的案例。第一个例子(摘自《全球脑的量子跃迁》,下同),现代科学解释宇宙的生成是大爆炸理论,大爆炸之后,宇宙极速地膨胀,“若宇宙早期膨胀速率比正常小十亿分之一,则宇宙将几乎瞬间大瓦解;若速率快于十亿分之一,它会因为太快而最后只生成稀薄冰冷的气体”。膨胀速率快或慢十亿分之一,宇宙就没有办法诞生,只有不快不慢恰到好处,宇宙才能够诞生。为什么宇宙早期的膨胀速率能够这样不快不慢?唯一的解释就是它存在一致性。

第二个例子是电磁场。我们知道宇宙之间有四个力,强力、弱力、电磁力、重力。“如电磁场和重力场之间力略有差别,也会阻止热而稳定的恒星,如太阳的存在,也因此阻止了可养育生命的地球上生物的进化过程”。电磁力和重力不能有略微的差别,若稍有差别,恒星就无法构建,为什么能如此精准,唯一的解释还是一致性。

再看生物圈。生物圈中的一致性亦即有机体内量子的一致性,是保证其进化和生存的根本。例1:“若没有通过量子的一致性产生的波形能量转移,就不会有让这个地球上生命开始的高效的光合作用:地球上将不会存在生命!”例2:“人体由1014个细胞组成,每个细胞每秒发生一万次生物电化学反应。所有这些都要求及时可靠的紧密联系。另外,每一夜会有1012个细胞死亡,并有数目大致相等的细胞来替换它们。有机体内数目如此庞大的细胞的完美协作和它们复杂的电磁与化学信号,仅靠物理和化学作用机制是难以诠释的。”唯一的解释仍然是它们存在一致性。

生物有机体的一致性包括内在一致性和外在一致性。

内在一致性的水平决定器官的健康水平,这不就等于告诉我们,整体性的水平决定机体健康的水平!如果一致性遭到破坏,变成非一致了,疾病便会随之而生。而内在非一致性极端的例子就是肿瘤!肿瘤为什么会产生?肿瘤就是一群异化的细胞。它的细胞分裂已经脱离了机体的一致性、整体性,这就是肿瘤。

外在一致性,是有机生物体跟外在的环境,包括自然、社会、家庭、工作等的关联方式,这实际上就是讲人与天地、人与社会的关系。所以,中医的整体性不单讲人自身是一个整体,它更强调人与天地与社会是一个整体。

内外一致性之间的关系,是内外相互联系、相互增强,和则共和、坏则共坏,这是现代科学最前沿的认识,由此不难发现,它与传统中医的整体观念完全契合。

以上我们谈到了一致性在宇宙生物圈中的体现,其实在社会形态中亦是如此。过去的皇帝都称天子,天子即天的儿子,子承父志,子不能有违父志,所以天子就意味着皇帝必须跟天是一致的;天子之下有大臣(诸侯),臣跟君是什么关系?臣必须跟君王保持一致;诸侯(臣)之下有大夫,而大夫又要跟诸侯保持一致,以此类推,以至于民。如此一来,上下就一致了,这就是整体性,就是天道。

周代之所以历经了八百年,跟它的社会形态具有较高的一致性或整体性是有关联的。因为孔子崇奉的周礼便是从这里开始的。反之,若天子不能真正体察天意,上行下效,那诸侯就开始跟天子不一致了,就会出现诸侯割据。诸侯如此,大夫随行,所以在孔子生长的鲁国,出现了三家大夫专权进而天下大乱的局面。为什么学中医也要关注历史社会?因为人与社会的健康都离不开一致性(整体性)。《素问· 灵兰秘典论》之所以要将脏腑官能化、社会化,目的亦在于此。

通过上述讨论,我们知道宇宙和自然的特征是一致性,拉兹洛也在书中讲到:在宇宙和生物圈中,一般没有什么能持续地、有目的地阻挡一致性。这个重要的观念清楚地告知我们,自然会不会有非一致,会不会有灾害?会有!但它没有持续地、有目的性地非一致,非一致极其短暂和局部,它能够很快地进行调整。而人类就不一样了,因为唯独人类能够持续性地、有目的地阻挡一致性,可以说人类的特征就是非一致性。我们看历朝历代的更替,最后都是因为非一致性,我们再看人类对自然的破坏,也是非一致性,是从个人利益出发的结果。

3.礼的迫切性

由于人类的非一致性、破坏整体性的特征,礼就显得十分迫切了。如前所述,礼的旨归和作用就是一致性,那么,一致性的结果是什么?孔子在《礼运》中讲:“夫礼者,先王以承天之道,以治人之情,故失之者死,得之者生。”由此可见,孔子视礼如生死。“承天之道”,天道,我们讲是宇宙自然之道,它是一致性的。人之情如何?人类的特征是非一致性,所以人之情也是非一致性。孔子在这里将礼表述为“承天之道,以治人之情”,实际上就是要将非一致性转为一致性,进而实现天人一致、天人合一、天人相应。故云“失之者死,得之者生”。至此,我们方能明白为什么孔子将“克己复礼”作为他最大的人生目标,因为生死攸关!

由前所述,人类的特征是非一致性,那么,人类何以造就非一致性呢?这是因为人类的自我中心主义。几乎每个人都想以自我为中心,自我中心主义,亦即佛教所讲执著自我的心。因为对自我的执著,每个人都想按自己的意愿去作为,纷纷杂杂,何以形成整体?其结果一定是不符合礼,一定是非一致性!自我中心主义造就非一致性,那恢复一致性的方法是什么?就是“克己复礼”!因此,克己之关键实际上就是自我中心主义的瓦解。只有瓦解了对自我的执著,克己才能实现,复礼才能实现,一致性才能实现,这是它的技术路线。

《礼记》对礼还有一个更平实的诠解:“夫礼者,自卑而尊人。”把自己放下来,尊重他人,这样你我就一致了。若我高高在上,认为我的建议主张重要,你的不重要,这就各说各的,无法一致。所以,礼的要素是自卑而尊人,这个“自卑”不是消极地认为自不如人的“自卑”,而是放下自我,尊重他人,这是礼的关键。所以,克己的要素其实就是消融自我中心主义。因为只有自我中心主义消融了,我们才能做到“无思也,无为也,感而遂通天下之道”。这是孔子克己复礼为仁的路线。

礼的作用还可以用另外一个字来说明,就是“和”。恰如有子在《论语·学而》留下的名言:“礼之用和为贵,先王之道斯为美。”由这句话我们可以看到,礼最尊贵的作用就是产生“和”,之所以失之者死,得之者生,因为失之则失和,得之则得和。至此,礼的问题就自然转到“和”上来了。

“和”虽司空见惯,但要给它确切的定义也并不容易,为保险起见,我们还是回到礼的系统里。《礼记·中庸》云:“喜怒哀乐之未发,谓之中;发而皆中节,谓之和。”这里给出了“和”的清晰定义—— “发而皆中节谓之和”。也就是说,和的要素是中节。紧接着《中庸》对此作了进一步地呈现:“中也者,天下之大本;和也者,天下之达道。”

读过这段经文后,大家会不会感到纳闷?何以喜怒哀乐之未发(中)能够作为天下之大本?发而皆中节(和)能够作为天下之达道?过去几年,我一直在思索,但不得其解。区区一个情绪有那么严重?透过这些年的学习和体悟,感受到确实有那么严重,它真是天下之大本!

这里的中,不是中间的中,而是不落两边、是根本、是真实的意思。为什么中是天下的大本?本,就是原来的样子,本来面目。那本来面目与“喜怒哀乐之未发”又有何关联?每思及此,都会感慨《中庸》的伟大!

我们可以细细品味自己的情绪,往往都在喜怒哀乐之中,喜怒、哀乐是情绪的两端,属于极端的情绪。为什么“喜怒哀乐之未发”就谓之“中”?当处在极端的情绪时,我们是什么样的状态?是远离真实的状态。比如夫妻吵架,怒气上来时,原本再好的夫妻,此刻亦变得一无是处。因为我们在情绪的控制下,远离了本来面目,根本无法照见真实。所以,“喜怒哀乐之未发,谓之中”,讲的是人只有超越了情绪,不为情绪所主宰了,他才能够回归本来,才能够照见真实。

宗萨仁波切是当今公认的一位大师,他在谈到情绪的问题时,深有感慨地说:“一个人如果能够不受情绪的干扰,那就没有什么不可能了。”而作为凡夫的我们,时刻都在情绪的干扰中,我们时刻都在两端,执持端见,要么对,要么错,要么是,要么非。因此,我们远离了本来,时时都是情绪的奴仆,受情绪的控制。

大家不妨看一看“怒”的造字,上面是奴,下面是心。一个怒字便将我们发怒时的那种状态和盘托出来了,当我们怒火中烧,心是怎么样的境况呢?是处在被奴役的境况,是做不了主的境况。此时此刻是怒在做主,是情绪在做主。中国文字的精妙,由此可见一斑。

“喜怒哀乐之未发,谓之中”,是在本来面目上,是在本性如如不动的境界中,但要入这个世界,要谈生命的现象,你还得动而起用,还得有喜怒哀乐,只不过这个喜怒哀乐必须得有一个度,这个度就是中节。“发而皆中节谓之和”,所以和的要素就是中节。

中节也可以说是恰到好处,当然,恰到好处的例子很多,《素问·六节藏象论》讲的“时立气布” 就是很好的一个例子。比如2012年9月22日22时49分交秋分,秋分是一个(时)节,当秋分这个节到来,秋分的气就要散播寰宇,这就叫时立气布,就叫中节。

中节不仅指节气的时立气布,它实际上涵盖了一切,比如我们今天这个讲座,我们开始的时间是8:30,时间一到,王校长宣布开始,这就叫中节,就叫时立气布,这就产生和了。如果时间到了,还没开始,大家心里会不会有怨气?一有怨气,不和便随之而来。所以,只有中节才能产生和。

中节只有一种情况,就是恰到好处,就是时立气布。而不中节就多种多样了,但是归根结底,亦不外乎两类,第一类,还以秋分为例,秋分这个时还没到,秋分的气已经到来,这叫未至而至,又叫太过或有余;第二类,秋分的时到了,秋分的气还没有来,这就叫至而未至,至而未至又称不及(或不足)。由此可知,导致不中节的因素虽有千千万,但概括起来,即是太过与不及(或有余与不足)。

中节则和,不中节则失和,而和为礼最尊贵的作用,至此我们大概能够明了,何以礼节二字常常合称。中国文字之奥妙,实在令人赞叹!《礼记》云:“礼,时为大。”礼之奥义于此更见端倪。

以上我们从理念、精神和文化的层面谈了尚礼的路线,那如何将其落实到技术的层面呢?这里我们需要先了解自然是如何中节,如何维系一致性的?《老子·七十七章》云:“天之道,损有余而补不足。”天道何为?天道就干两件事:一是损,一是补。把有余(太过)的损掉,把不足(不及)的补上,那导致不中节、导致失礼的主因便不存在了。由老子的这一章我们可以看到,天道、自然是透过损益来实现一致性、实现中节、实现礼的。那人类又如何呢?老子话锋一转:“人之道,则不然,损不足以奉有余。”人道和天道正好相反,不足还再去损它,它就越不足;有余还去奉它,它就越有余。这样离中节就越来越远,离和就越来越远。

我们回顾人类社会的历史,每一个朝代到了末期都是这种趋向,这也就是朝代更替的因缘。所以,新的力量在推翻前朝时,都会打出同一个旗号:“替天行道。”替天行什么道?就是行“损有余而补不足”之道。当年共产党领导农民干革命,喊的口号是:“打土豪,分田地。”虽然字面上没有这四个字,但实质上还是替天行道。打土豪是损有余,分田地是补不足。这不就是天道吗?!替天行道,是革命成功的根本!这些年来,党中央提出构建和谐社会,构建和谐社会根本的招式是什么呢?是关注农民问题,一是解决农民工的困难;二是全面取消农业税,单这一项便是史无前例。农业税免除了,那财政收入从哪来呢?从纳税人那来,从有钱人那里来。这不就是“损有余而补不足”吗?!虽然人类历史错综复杂,变幻无常,但万变不离其宗,或兴或衰皆不离损益,如果我们能够用这一点去解读,便会清晰明了。

社会如此,医道亦然,我们读《素问·平人气象论》:“平人者,不病也。”王冰释:“如是应天常度,脉气无太过、无不及者,名曰平人。”没有太过、没有不及的人,叫做平人。所以,平人实际是中节的人、尚和的人、尚礼的人!为什么说中医是尚礼的医学,这是有甚深依据的。平人者不病,非平人者必病。既然非平人者病,那怎么去解决?

我们看《内经》给出的治病总则“无问其病,以平为期”,不管你是什么病,肿瘤也好,感冒也好,SARS 也好,通通都是以平为期。因为“平人者不病”!那如何以平为期?仍然是:损有余、补不足。“损有余”在中医治法中叫泻法,补不足自然是补法了。所以,中医的千法万法,不离补泻两法。有的人不了解中医,看到补泻的字眼就不以为然,殊不知自然是靠什么来维持平和,是靠什么来保持一致性?靠的就是补泻(损益),这正是天道的大手笔!我们对中医的信心就是建立在这个上面。大家想想,天道坚不坚固?长不长久?如果天道坚固长久,那中医也一样坚固长久!我们要有这种自信,这是文化的自信、精神的自信,也是观念的自信。

——原文刊于《中医药文化》2014年03期,作者:刘力红

原文網址:https://kknews.cc/health/mnayj29.html

JAKS Wants More Cash - Bursa Dummy

Wednesday, 15 July 2020

When I saw Jaks's Bursa announcement on rights issue on 13/7/20, I thought that it has finally fixed the price and date for its rights issue.

To my surprise, Jaks revised its original proposed rights issue in order to raise more money, from min/max RM130mil/RM160.9mil to RM200mil/RM289.6mil.

Most shareholders expect Jaks to be cash rich in a couple of years time, so they might be "shocked" by this increase in cash call.

For me, I actually don't feel particularly disappointed. I just think that Jaks needs the extra money to do something, be it to expand its business, pay the debts or compensation whatever.

Compared to private placement and huge bank borrowings, rights issue with "free" warrants might be a better way. However, I'm not too comfortable with the large amount of warrants.

I believe that the money raised will be put into good use. It will be superb if it is to subscribe to the remaining 10% of the power plant sooner to make it 40%.

I don't know the directors and I'm not sure whether they are credible, cunning or selfish. Perhaps I'm too naive.

The original plan is 4 existing shares entitled to 2 rights shares (est 40sen) with 1 warrant.
The revised plan is 5 existing shares entitled to 8 rights shares (est 22.5sen) with 4 warrants (ex 50sen).

If you have 1,000 Jaks shares now, you are entitled to 1000 x 8/5 = 1600 rights shares and 800 warrants. You need to pay 1600 x 0.225 = RM360 to subscribe in full.

The new TERP is RM0.50 based on 5-day VWAMP of RM0.9443. So the illustrative rights share price of 22.5sen represents 55% discount to TERP which is almost similar to the original plan (53%).



A total of 888.8mil issued rights shares stated in the table above is based on minimum RM200mil. If all rights shares are fully subscribed from existing 651mil ordinary shares, the number of rights shares will be 1,041mil in which RM234mil can be raised. So the total shares will reach 1,692mil before conversion of warrants.

The table below shows Jaks original rights issue proposal for comparison purpose.



As mentioned in previous post "Jaks Worth Only 40sen?", even though the number of shares increase substantially and EPS will be adjusted lower, there will be no dilution to existing shareholders who subscribe to the rights issue fully.

If Jaks is able to generate the anticipated RM200mil annual net profit (from 30% shares), its projected EPS will be 11.8sen base on total shares of 1,692mil. Refer "Jaks: Cash Cow In The Making?" for estimated profit and cash flow from its Hai Duong power plant.

Following the rights issue, Jaks share price will be adjusted lower accordingly. If its share price stands at 88sen on the ex-date, it should be adjusted to around 48sen if I'm not wrong.

This calculation is based on "before = after", p = adjusted share price.

(0.88 x 5) + (8 x 0.225) = (5+8)p + 4(p - 0.50)

p = 0.48

Base on projected EPS of 11.8sen, if fair PE ratio is 10x, target price will be RM1.18. This represents a potential 150% upside from 48sen.

When Jaks achieve 40% shares in the power plant, then potential annual net profit could be RM260mil with a projected EPS of 15.4sen. This is a potential 220% upside from 48sen if PE of 10x is given.

At 30% shares, a potential cash inflow of approximately RM300mil per year into Jaks is expected from the power plant operation. If the management is to give out one third or RM100mil to Jaks shareholders as dividend, it will be 5.9sen per share. This is a 50% payout from its net profit of RM200mil and a 12% dividend yield from share price of 48sen!

If Jaks choose to distribute only 20% cash from its power plant as dividend which is RM60mil, it will be a dividend payout of 30% from its net profit. Dividend per share will be 3.5sen per and dividend yield is 7.4% from 48sen.

If the dividend yield is consistently high, then the market might give Jaks a PE higher than 10x.

How much will Jaks distribute if its shares in the power plant rise to 40%? At this level, potential free cash flow attributable to Jaks might reach RM400mil annually.

Nevertheless, these calculations do not factor in the conversion of warrants in the future.

At this time the power plant in Vietnam has already fired up according to plan and the bleeding Pacific Star project should be able to be completed in 2020. Investors have to wait for year 2021 when both units of power plant run at full steam.

However, there are risks as well, such as:
- further delay or failure of the power plants operation
- net profit & cash flow contribution from power plant turn out to be way lower than expected
- management of Jaks refuse to pay reasonable dividends
- management of Jaks burn the cash with bad investment

Once the power plants are up and running in full throttle, not even a 10th wave of Covid or further global recession or stock market rout can prevent Jaks from making consistent profit and receiving fantastic cash flow for 25 years.

Please note that this is not a buy/sell call on Jaks. I can't guarantee all the calculations and information here are correct and accurate. Invest at own risk!

Posted by Bursa Dummy

http://bursadummy.blogspot.com/2020/07/jaks-wants-more-cash.html

Tuesday, July 14, 2020

Maybank Kim Eng initiates ‘buy’ on Frencken on quality growth and resilience

Broker's Calls
Ng Qi Siang Published on Mon, Jul 13, 2020 / 4:51 PM GMT+8 / Updated 18 hours ago

SINGAPORE (July 13): Despite the Covid-19 pandemic and US-China rivalry rattling markets in recent months, Maybank Kim Eng (MKE) analyst Gene Lih Lai has initiated a “buy” call on the technology hardware manufacturer, Frencken. Quality growth and its relative insulation against geoeconomic conflicts, he says, are likely to make it a good prospect for investors.

“Our “buy” on Frencken is premised upon exposure to structurally growing markets through blue-chip customers; earnings resilience despite a challenging business environment due to Covid-19 and US-China trade tensions; and track record of margin improvement with room for more,” Lai comments in a MKE broker’s report dated July 12. He has given the counter a $1.20 12-month price target with a 34% upside.

Frencken manufactures components and modules for a wide range of growth industries including 5G and artificial intelligence (AI), as well as wellness and population ageing. In mechatronics, which consists of 82% of its revenues, Frencken serves established market leaders like ASML, Seagate, Thermo Fisher and Phillips, with its products critical to their operations. Frencken is also often the sole supplier of these components -- which are subject to demanding requirements -- and has a reputation for reliable service among its customers.

Particularly in the mechatronics segment, Frencken’s products tend to be critical but are not core competencies of its customers, says Lai. Using Frencken’s services allows the customers to free up resources to maintain their market leadership. Frequently, Frencken is chosen as a supplier not just because of its engineering and manufacturing expertise, but also because of its experience in managing the supply chain for complex products.

“Frencken boasts deep relationships with customers that span decades, for products that require strong expertise, stringent qualification processes, and at instances very demanding turnaround times. These products are often integral to the success of the customers’ final product in the market place. Overall, we believe this boosts Frencken’s stickiness with customers,” remarks Lai. He expects Frencken to tap into these relationships to introduce products with greater value-add, consequently further driving its margins.




The firm is not, however, resting on its laurels -- it has been selectively upgrading its equipment and facilities. Besides investing in capacity expansion for high-precision machinery and establishing a new facility in Chuzhou for its IMS segment, it has also rolled out the Frencken Operations eXcellence (FOX) and Frencken Production System programmes to improve operating efficiency. Lai believes that it was partially these initiatives that helped drive EBIT margins to 9% in 2019 from 5% in 2015, with SG&A as a percentage of sales falling from 11.4% to 8.4% over the same period.

“Such effects are even more pronounced in the automotive subdivision in our view, due to a large fixed cost base. With incrementally better volumes and/ or pricing, coupled with judicious cost management, the scope for operating leverage is attractive. For example, although IMS fell 6% in 2019, segment results jumped 7.6x to SGD6.1m on the confluence of improved product mix, and strong cost control,” comments Lai.

Moreover, Lai does not believe that Francken will be unduly affected by Covid-19 despite present uncertainty. Much of demand-side disruptions has tended to arise from order or receipt delays rather than cancellations; key customers remain bullish about the future, believing that the resumption of elective surgeries and reopening of labs will lead to demand recovery. Frencken’s geographical and product diversity also shelters it from US-China trade tensions -- its supply chains are relatively ring-fenced and China only accounts for 15% of its revenue.

“Currently, factories in Singapore, Malaysia and China have resumed normal manufacturing operations following the easing of government restrictions. In Thailand, the Netherlands, the US and Switzerland, operations are continuing as usual,” the Lai observes.

The firm’s strong balance sheet should help it tide over the cashflow pressure plaguing businesses in the virus economy, with the MKE analyst forecasting Frencken’s net cash to equity to rise from 23% in FY19 to 35% in FY22E due to robust cash generation. He assumes a 30% dividend pay-out ratio as the firm’s free cash flow should be sufficient to cover its distribution per share.

Looking towards the future, Frencken has become increasingly involved in new products across promising growth areas like semiconductors, analytical and medical products. In light of its strong execution track record, Lai expects Frencken to gain wallet share with its customers going forward, probably by providing new products with stronger value-add and enhanced margins. He estimates a FY21-22 PATMI of 14% or higher against the Bloomberg consensus for the counter, arguing that the firm’s strong potential has often been overlooked by the market.

Though the firm’s net profit looks set to decline 11% y-o-y in FY20 due to supply chain and order delays, Lai sees profits recovering by 18% and 10% y-o-y in FY21 and FY22 respectively on the back of revenue growth and margin expansion. Nevertheless, net margin estimates for FY22 is estimated to come in at a disappointing 7.7%, with the firm already achieving a core net margin of 7.1% in FY19 and maintaining significant room to further improve customer value-add.

Upside factors for Frencken include stronger than expected performance in semiconductor and industrial automation in FY20-21 as well as robust margin accretion from new products and efficiency gains. The stock could also potentially find itself re-rating towards peer valuations as a result of institutional interest. Downside risks, however, include reduced revenue resilience due to present economic weakness, more widespread supply chain disruptions and lower-than-expected dividend payouts.

As at 4pm today, Frencken is trading 0.035 points up at $0.95 with a 3.16% dividend yield. Price-to-earnings ratio stands at 9.53.

Analysts turn negative on SATS following losses in 4Q20

Broker's Calls
Felicia Tan Published on Tue, Jul 14, 2020 / 9:21 AM GMT+8 / Updated 1 hours ago
SINGAPORE (July 14): Analysts are turning negative on airline gateway services and food solutions provider SATS following the release of its 4Q20 results.

See: SATS reports net loss of $6.3 mil in 4Q20 as Covid-19 halts air travel

On July 9, SATS reported a net loss of $6.3 million for the quarter and a 32.2% y-o-y decline in its total earnings for FY20.

The results missed even SATS’s expectations for a 60-70% reduction in net profit in 4Q20 to $15-$19 million.

See also: SATS braces for 60-70% plunge in 4Q profits as Covid-19 storm stalls global air travel

There no final dividend reported for the quarter.

On that, analysts from DBS Group Research and OCBC Investment Research have recommended investors to “hold” on to the stock, while analysts from PhillipCapital and CGS-CIMB feel it’s time to “sell” or “reduce” their positions.

See also: SATS profit warning prompts DBS to lower earnings forecasts, TP

PhillipCapital analyst Paul Chew has downgraded his recommendation to “sell” from “neutral”.

“The path to recovery for aviation will be long. Profitability will be elusive, and the focus will be on the liquidity of the company,” he says in a Monday report.

“Liquidity will more critical than any elusive profitability this year. We expect a severe contraction in aviation revenues, which accounts for 76% of 4Q20 revenues… Absence of dividends and net losses to persist, a more conservative benchmark to valuations will be the price to book ratio,” Chew adds.

In her report dated July 10, CGS-CIMB analyst Lim Siew Khee feels SATS’s valuations are ahead of its fundamentals at 30x FY21F price-to-earnings (P/E).

While she says SATS’s capacity will inevitably improve on the gradual recovery of the travel sector, she thinks it is “too early” to see an uplift in international travel patterns as yet.

Lim has projected losses for SATS in the next three quarters, due to a potential extension or resurgence of lockdowns.

She has increased SATS’s earnings per share (EPS) for FY21F by 19% on higher non-aviation revenue, and cut EPS for FY22F by 7% on lower associate contributions.

DBS Group Research analysts Alfie Yeo and Andy Sim are maintaining their neutral view on SATS as they await the recovery of mass travelling across borders.

“While core 4Q20 earnings were in line, the results are a non-event in our view. 1QFY21 earnings should be sequentially worse as regional lockdown and travel restrictions were in full swing. Even as travel situation gradually improves, the question is when mass travel will return as with the reopening of Terminals 2 and 4,” they note in a Monday report.

Yeo and Sim have cut their dividend forecast for FY21F to 0 cents, with a small distribution per share (DPS) of 3 cents in FY22F.

They have also raised FY21-22F earnings by 6-8% on better cost management and consolidation impact of Country Foods and Nanjing Weizhou Airline Food Crop.

OCBC Investment Research analyst Chu Peng says she expects FY21 to be “likely better” than 4Q20 with the reopening of borders, and expects a “full recovery” in 2023.

“[We] believe that SATS may have to rely on its non-aviation segment (17% of FY20 revenue) such as institutional catering and commercial catering to support its revenue growth in the near to mid-term,” she says.

In view of the uncertainty ahead due to Covid-19, Chu has reduced her DPS forecasts for FY21/22by 89%/67% to 2 and 7 cents respectively.

DBS Group Research, OCBC Investment Research, PhillipCapital, and CGS-CIMB have recommended target prices of $2.83, $2.76, $1.95, and $2.80, respectively.

As at 9.20am, shares in SATS were changing hands 3 cents lower, or 1.1% down, at $2.75.

Sunday, July 12, 2020

1分钟读懂刘力红老师新作《黄帝内针》 书评

2017-01-16 369蓝田书... 阅 13243 转 511

1分钟读懂刘力红老师新作《黄帝内针》+书评

【理论依据】

操作依据:

《素问·阴阳应象大论》:

故善用针者,从阴引阳,从阳引阴,以右治左,以左治右……

阳病治阴,阴病治阳,定其血气,各守其乡。

思维依据:

《伤寒论》第58条:凡病,……阴阳自和者,必自愈。

《中庸》:致中和。

《易经·乾卦》:同声相应,同气相求。水流湿,火就燥。云从龙,风从虎。圣人作而万物睹。本乎天者亲上,本乎地者亲下,则各从其类也。

【针刺方法】

针刺主要取肘膝以下穴位。

针刺后不行针,留针45分钟后除针。

【针法总则】

总则一:上病下治,下病上治;

总则二:左病右治,右病左治;

总则三:同气相求;

总则四:阴阳倒换求。

【原则说明】

总则一二略。

总则三:同气相求。

一般认为“宁可失穴,不可失经”,而该针法认为“穴可失,经可离,同气不能丢”。

同气分为:经络同气、三才同气、其他(手、颈项、肩、腰)。

经络同气又名大同气:同名经同气。

三才同气又名三焦同气。

三焦定位:

四肢:

上焦(天部)——腕踝

中焦(人部)——肘膝

下焦(地部)——肩胯

躯干:

上焦(天部)——心窝以上(前鸠尾穴,后至阳穴)

中焦(人部)——心窝到肚脐(前鸠尾穴——神阙穴,后至阳穴——命门穴)

下焦(地部)——肚脐以下(前神阙穴,后命门穴)

其他(手、颈项、肩、腰):此处略,在【其他】中详细说明。

总则四:阴阳倒换求。

因本针法考虑方便与安全,针刺时主要取肘膝以下穴位,运用“下病上取”“同气相求”原则,将髋胯、肩部等下焦(地部)的病症问题,一律用上焦(天部)腕踝来解决。

【取穴特色】

病症所属的“经络+三焦”根据四大总则取穴。

若辨别不清或在中间,按照“男左女右”取穴。

手太阳经——上焦(阳谷、后溪、支正)——中焦(小海)——下焦(肩贞)

足太阳经——上焦(昆仑、申脉、跗阳)——中焦(委中)——下焦(承扶)

手阳明经——上焦(阳溪)——中焦(曲池)——下焦(肩髃)

足阳明经——上焦(解溪、陷谷、内庭、下巨虚)——中焦(犊鼻、足三里)——下焦(髀关)

手少阳经——上焦(阳池、外关、中渚)——中焦(天井)——下焦(肩髎)

足少阳经——上焦(丘墟、足临泣、悬钟)——中焦(膝阳关、阳陵泉)——下焦(环跳)

手太阴经——上焦(太渊、列缺、经渠)——中焦(尺泽)——下焦(肩髃穴前二横指)

足太阴经——上焦(商丘、三阴交)——中焦(内膝眼、阴陵泉)——下焦(冲门)

手少阴经——上焦(神门、通里)——中焦(少海)——下焦(极泉)

足少阴经——上焦(太溪、三阴交、照海)——中焦(阴谷)——下焦(长强穴旁开0.5寸)

手厥阴经——上焦(大陵、内关、劳宫)——中焦(曲泽)——下焦(腋前大筋)

足厥阴经——上焦(中封、三阴交、蠡沟、中都、太冲)——中焦(曲泉、膝关)——下焦(阴廉)

任脉——列缺、照海

督脉——后溪、申脉

带脉——足临泣、外关

阴维脉——内关

【用针禁忌】

1、 肘膝以上及整个躯干和头部禁针(主要针肘膝以下);

2、 患处禁针(参照四大总原则);

3、 不信者禁针(医患互相信任);

4、 特殊情况不用针(疲劳、过饥、过饱、饮酒后);

5、 皮肤受损处不针。

【其他】

手(掌)头定位(双手合掌):

中指指尖——头顶——厥阴经

食指侧面——面额——阳明经

手背——头侧——少阳经

拇指背侧——鼻——太阴经

颈项定位:

风府至大椎——督脉——后溪——申脉

廉泉至天突——任脉——列缺——照海

天柱至大杼——太阳经——阳谷——昆仑

风池、翳风至肩井——少阳经——阳池——丘墟

人迎至缺盆——阳明经——阳溪——解溪

肩部定位:

肩髃——阳明经——偏历——下巨虚

肩髎——少阳经——外关——悬钟

天宗(胸椎1-7)——太阳经——支正——跗阳

肩前(云门、中府)——太阴经——经渠——三阴交

腋前大筋——厥阴经——内关——三阴交

腋下(极泉)——少阴经——通里——三阴交

腰部定位:

太阳经——小海——委中

少阳经(胸12-腰1)——天井——阳陵泉

上焦(鸠尾——天突)

厥阴经——内关——三阴交

阳明经——偏历——下巨虚

少阴经——通里——三阴交

太阴经——经渠——三阴交

中焦(鸠尾——神阙)

阳明经——曲池——足三里

少阴经——少海——阴谷

太阴经——尺泽——阴陵泉

厥阴经——曲泽——曲泉

少阳经——天井——阳陵泉

下焦(腰1-腰5、骶部、神阙以下)

少阴经——通里——太溪

厥阴经——大陵——中封

太阴经——太渊——商丘

阳明经——阳溪——解溪

少阳经——阳池/中渚——丘墟/足临泣

【常用急救】

1、 毫针急救

神志不清,问诊困难时,除人中外,男左女右取穴。

角弓反张:

督脉——人中

太阳经——后溪——申脉

肝经——太冲

阳明经——合谷

神志不清——劳宫、涌泉

呼吸困难——内关、然谷、太溪

中风急症:

厥阴经——劳宫、内关——太冲、中封

少阴经——少府、通里——涌泉、太溪

阳明经——内庭、解溪、丰隆、足三里、阳溪

经外奇穴——八风、八邪

2、 锋针(三棱针、12号注射针头)刺络急救

男左女右,或双侧皆刺。

不局限于穴位,青筋(静脉)怒张者,皆可刺之。

脑中风、心脏病急性发作:

百会、双侧耳尖、十宣(手十指尖)、气端(脚十趾尖)刺络出血。

口眼歪斜——刺耳垂。

配合针刺“开四关”——合谷、太冲、内庭、陷谷

中暑急症:

尺泽、委中刺络放血。

3、 艾灸急救

危急脱证:神志障碍、面色苍白、手足冰冷、大汗淋漓……。

灸:劳宫、涌泉、神阙、关元、气海。

晕针与脱证相仿,立即拔针,并按上述处理,便可很快消除。

4、 指掐或提捏

以上急救,如无针,可以指掐替代。

心脏病急性发作(心绞痛、心梗):

提捏或提拨腋前大筋和腋下极泉。

极泉穴拨动方法:中指在右极泉穴处(异位心例外)将肌肉向后推,然后向前拨,后前拨动,若手法正确,患者必有触电般筋麻感。

腋前大筋拿法:五指除小指外,提捏右侧大筋(异位心例外),向前拉放,连续三次。如无缓解,连续六次或九次。

提捏股内侧大筋亦可。





书评

近来,在微信中看到《黄帝内针》开始预售,甚是欣喜,因为刘力红老师的大作必须拜读。

从某网站上窥见其文章节选,得知此套针法是其师父的父亲向扁鹊对待长桑君一样,照顾一位老人,由老人秘授的。

经历如此传奇,令人心驰神往。终于在昨晚,沐浴更衣后,手捧宝典瞻阅之。

本书内容由师父杨真海传讲,徒弟刘力红整理,共89千字,全书158页,共计三章,前95页,即一二两章主要秉承了刘老师《思考中医》里一贯的说文解字的风格,解说医理,弘扬传统文化,核心为阴阳之道、中正和平之道。

95页以后介绍了此针法的具体操作方法。具体内容总结如上。

精读了前95页,浏览了后面的内容,总计耗时1小时。

要谈一下读此书的感受,这让我不得不联想到另外两本书《拨开迷雾学中医》1和2。




《拨开迷雾学中医》1中,第3页,提到过这样一个程序:

1、《内经》的观点是最高明最正确的;

2、我提出的观点来自于《内经》;

3、结论:我提出的观点是最高明最正确的。

我们时常会从《内经》中的只言片语中领悟到所谓的“道”,然后进行无限发挥,进而形成各个流派。

读过《灵枢》的朋友们,真正的《内经》针法就在里面,可为何不能被好好地传承,非要自创那么多方法?

明明有大道可走,为何非要走所谓的捷径?

所谓“法喜”,所谓“朝闻道夕死可矣”,我们经常用“大道至简”来获得自我陶醉、自我高潮、自我满足。

还没学会坐,就认为已经学会飞了。

《黄帝内针》里的针法,一定很有价值,但,与《灵枢》针法还有一定的差距,我非厚此薄彼,希望大家读好经典以后再博采众长。

如果《灵枢》原文读不懂,推荐大家学习王伟老师的《拨开迷雾学中医》1和2,明者自明。

该书作者很年轻,但,有志不在年高,关键是选对方向。

作一个不恰当的总结:《黄帝内针》集合了八脉交会穴、缪刺法、全息理论、腕踝针、五总穴歌(四总穴+内关)等临床实用针法,因其主要针刺肘膝关节以下,禁刺躯干和头部,所以非常安全。

安全加有效,同时无针刺手法要求,所以是针灸入门的绝佳教材,这与靳瑞教授及其弟子的“靳三针”疗法可以互为补充,对急于上手的中医医生来说非常有益。

但,这绝不是,医道!!!

真言不美,忠言逆耳。

多有得罪,望请见谅!!!

大家都在路上,同道们……

Friday, July 10, 2020

[转贴] 5分钟看懂MATRIX(5236) 2020年 Q4季报 - 第一天

2020年7月9日星期四

matrix跟红飞机一样,本来应该要在五月底前公布的业绩,在因为疫情的影响下,BURSA允许公司可以延长至6月底出炉,他们也要求把期限暂延至7月15日前,而今天他的报告终于出炉了。相信大家对他应该不陌生,虽然天哥不常谈起他,但是他确是投资者心中的明星股之一,虽然地产行业低迷了几年,也压缩了他股价成长的空间,但是他却是一家不择不扣的高股息和优质的产业股,废话少说,我们直接进正题吧。。

Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31 Mar 2020
MATRIX CONCEPTS HOLDINGS BERHAD

Financial Year End 31 Mar 2020
Quarter 4 Qtr
Quarterly report for the financial period ended 31 Mar 2020
The figures have not been audited

Attachments
Q Report (31.03.2020) (1).pdf
392.2 kB

Remarks :
The Unaudited Condensed Consolidated Statement of Comprehensive Income should be read in conjunction with the Audited Financial Statements for the financial year ended 31 March 2019 and the accompanying explanatory notes attached to this interim financial statements.

Default Currency
Other Currency
Currency: Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)

SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION
31 Mar 2020

INDIVIDUAL PERIOD
CUMULATIVE PERIOD

CURRENT YEAR QUARTER
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
QUARTER
CURRENT YEAR TO DATE
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
PERIOD

31 Mar 2020
31 Mar 2019
31 Mar 2020
31 Mar 2019

$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
1 Revenue
472,143
278,945
1,282,335
1,045,531
2 Profit/(loss) before tax
95,222
83,486
339,103
297,767
3 Profit/(loss) for the period
52,915
65,865
231,636
218,229
4 Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent
55,579
65,865
234,300
218,389
5 Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit)
6.74
8.75
29.18
29.02
6 Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit)
2.50
3.25
11.50
12.75

AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER
AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
7 Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$)
1.9300
1.7600

我们不难发现,这个季度的营业额是异常的高,差不多比去年同季度高了70%左右,幅度相当惊人,但是奇怪的是,营业额提高了那么多,净利却没怎么提升,到底是什么回事呢?等下我们看看完整版本的报告吧,而这个季度由于是第四季,所以也是全年的业绩,我们看到他全年的营业额是继续比去年来得好的,而净利上还有少许的成长,所以是相对来说不错的,比较可惜的是,这个季度的股息派发有缩水了一下,让全年的股息变成11.5sen,股息率
来说处于6.3%左右的水平,算是不错的,前提是他未来没有继续下跌啦。。




这个就是他的完整版本季报,我发现了一个大问题,就是他的LOGO被做设计的人拉长了=。=,如果是我做印刷的时代做这样的东西,出去被老板骂了。。不过大家应该认为不重要啦XD,所以这里我们就看到问题了,生意是最大了,但是成本也提高了很多,为什么呢?我有看了他的NOTE有说明,因为产品组合有较大的部分是可负担房产,所以PROFIT MARGIN变少了。然后当营业额增加,SELLING EXPENSES自然就走高了,根据报纸报道说,在MCO期间,他们是全部工作人员ONLINE卖屋子,所以营业额才那么厉害,这个管理层真的非常厉害。但是最大的问题是,这个季度是第四季,所以所得税全部一次过计算,变多了很多,不然的话,相信这个季度能够保持着成长呢。。


在这个资产负债表,我们看到很重要的一项,就是他的LOGO又变回正常啦XD,然后可以看到他多了一项,就是JOINT VENTURE的公司,价值1亿3000万,虽然投资了那么多,但是现金还是继续增加中的,就知道多好料了。当然钱不会凭空出现的,借贷方面是有增加了少许的,但是整体来说,公司的资产多了4亿,算是这样了。每股的净资产也高达1.93,如果这样算的话,当下是有低估成份的,但是这个是参考而已,我一般上很少用NTA来计算合理价的。


所以其实他的现金从营运来看,是变多了的,但是很明显,在扣除了所得随后,现金回收是少了一些,不过OK咯还在能够接受的范围了,当然就是有投资了一亿三千多万在JOINT VENTURE的公司一起发展咯,对未来来说也是好事来的,总的来说,公司现金流是没问题啦,所以公司算是还可以的。


这个是公司的各种不同部门的业绩和表现,其实我有HIGHLIGHT起来了,青色是比去年同季度做得好的,而公司最赚钱的业务当然是产业发展了,这一块最赚钱,然后建筑其实比去年同季度减少了净利,而他的酒店和大学,其实并不是很赚钱的,教育部分还亏损300万,但是其实去年同季是亏800万的,所以亏少了很多,是好事来的。。所以大家记得要读大学记得找MATRIX,不然继续亏钱也不好玩XD


这个是公司对未来的预期,自从COVID后,全部公司的预期都变长了,总的来说,公司的产业都有一定的需求,所以管理层认为2021还是有一定的机会可以超越,也认为接下来的产业需求会保持不错的情况。


这个是公司过去十多个季度的业绩,虽然这个季度因为所得税的缘故变红了,但是其实过去十多个季度是青多过红的,而且走势也相对不错,所以公司确实是一家稳打稳扎的产业公司。


MATRIX 5236
股价 Rm1.83
ROE 14.5左右PE: 6.5左右
DY 6.28%左右

总结

从上述的图表我们不难发现,虽然公司过去许多个季度都青多过红,但是公司的股价因为产业市场疲弱,而跟其他产业公司一同低迷了好几年了,所以当下的价格跟几年前来说,不仅没有上涨,还跌了少许,而我们也看一看公司的一些数据,包括ROE,PE和DY等等,很明显如果以这样的数据衡量的话,公司确实是处于低估的阶段的,所以个人的看法来说,我是对该公司保持正面的想法的,毕竟我比较喜欢低估的公司,而且未来前景也还可以就好了。但是说真的,这种股对于大部分的人来说,可能太闷了,他要有爆发性的股价增值貌似不是容易的事,除非产业股的趋势来临,否则的话,买这只股最多是稳稳收一点股息,然后股价能够不跌,并有少许的成长已经算是不错了,所以对于高风险投资者来说,其实这家公司并不会很吸引,但是对于稳定类别的投资者来说,这家公司或许就是一个值得留意的公司了,至于该不该买,就看自己怎么想了。。

写这篇文章的时候我个人是持有该公司股份,但是请别看到我的文章就胡乱以为我叫你买或卖,整篇文章并没有任何买卖建议,或推高股压低价的其他企图,单纯分享我的功课,本人“怒”不对你的盈亏负任何责任,谢谢。

https://windscopo.blogspot.com/2020/07/5matrix5236-2020-q4.html

Wood Manufacturing - The divergent fortunes of wood manufacturing

While panel board makers are expected to continue to suffer from low ASPs from a regional supply glut, a very different outlook beckons for furniture makers in 2H20. Going into 2H20, we expect furniture makers to benefit from rebounding sales volumes, weak ringgit levels and cheaper raw material costs. We maintain our NEUTRAL stance on the sector given the divergent fortunes of furniture and panel board makers. Our top picks are Lii Hen (BUY, TP: RM3.65) based on 9x PE on mid-FY21 earnings and Homeritz (BUY, TP: RM0.72) based on 10x PE multiple on FY21 earnings.

Furniture sales returning to pre-covid-19 levels already? According the Malaysian Furniture Association, furniture sales volumes have been surprisingly strong since the resumption of operations. Having recently met with furniture makers Lii Hen and Homeritz, both have confirmed that sales have returned to pre-Covid levels (i.e. that of Jan-Feb 2020).

Furniture makers 2H20 outlook. Going into 2H20, furniture makers Lii Hen and Homeritz are expected to benefit on several fronts from (i) pent up demand, (ii) increased orders to the US from companies diverting orders from China to SEA region due to the still on-going trade war, (iii) weaker ringgit strength averaging RM4.25/USD YTD (vs. 2019 average: RM4.14/USD) and (iv) cheaper raw materials (glue, leather etc.) vs. 2019 prices.

Both Lii Hen and Homeritz are trading at undemanding valuations, have healthy dividend yield and are net cash. In addition to favourable earnings outlook, Lii Hen and Homeritz are currently trading at undemanding valuations of 7.5x and 8.7x PE (or 5.1 and 4.7 ex-cash PE respectively. Furthermore, both Lii Hen and Homeritz are yielding a healthy 6.1% and 5.2% at current price levels. As of end-Feb they are net cash with Lii Hen at RM157.9m (RM0.88/share; 32.3% of market cap) and Homeritz at RM81.1m (RM0.27/share; 46.6% of market cap).

Panel board makers macro issues continue. Panel board makers continue to suffer from excess supply glut in the region. This is mainly due to ample production capacities in neighbouring countries, Thailand and Vietnam, which ramped up capacities to supply the Middle East market. Since US trade sanctions were imposed on the Middle East in 2018, excess capacities have led to ASPs declining significantly as Thailand and Vietnam flooded the market with product. Figure #2 shows the historical PBT contribution of panel board makers Evergreen and Heveaboard. As trade sanctions show no signs of being lifted, we expect the depressed prices (from the supply glut) continuing into 2H20.

Malaysia as a production hub. Despite Vietnam’s reputation as a manufacturing hotbed, we note that the cost of labour in the country has risen dramatically in recent years, reducing its attractiveness as a manufacturing hub. Figure #1 shows the narrowing cost of labour between Malaysia and Vietnam. With this narrowing gap, Malaysia could be poised to grab some of the “US-China trade war demand substitution” from Vietnam.

Forecasts. We Keep Our Forecasts Unchanged.

NEUTRAL. We maintain our NEUTRAL stance on the sector given the divergent fortunes of furniture and panel board makers. Our top picks for the sector are Lii Hen (BUY, TP: RM3.56) and Homeritz (BUY, TP: RM0.72) due to reasons mentioned above.

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 10 Jul 2020

Matrix Concepts Holdings - Ending strong

Matrix reported FY20 core PATMI of RM231.5m (+6.4% YoY), within expectations. 4QFY20 core PATMI fell QoQ/YoY largely due to a lower margin product mix. 4QFY20 new sales came in at RM87.3m, bringing FY20 sales to RM1bn. Both FY21 sales and GDV launch targets are set at RM1.1bn which will likely be achieved given that over RM700m worth of property bookings were made during the MCO period. We maintain our forecasts and BUY recommendation with an unchanged RNAV-based TP of RM2.06.

Within expectations. Matrix reported 4QFY20 core PATMI of RM52.9m (-19% QoQ, -19.7% YoY), bringing the FY20 amount to RM231.5m (+6.4% YoY) which formed 101% and 103% of our and consensus full year forecasts, respectively. No EIs were excluded from the reported earnings.

Dividend. Declared interim dividend of 2.5 sen (4QFY19: 3.0) per share going ex on 23 Jul 2020, bringing YTD dividend to 11.5 sen per share.

QoQ/YoY. 4QFY20 revenue increased +69.2%/+69.3% to RM472.1m on the back of higher recognition from the sales of Sendayan Development residential properties. On the other hand, core PATMI fell -19%/-19.7% to RM52.9m due to a higher effective tax rate due to non-deductibles coupled with lower margin product mix (i.e. more affordably-priced houses compared to more commercial and industrial properties in the previous quarters)

YTD. Revenue rose +22.4% to RM1282.3m from higher revenue recognition from progressive billings. Similarly, core PATMI improved 6.4% to RM231.5m in tandem with revenue coupled with a lower margin product mix.

Ending strong. We view Matrix’s recent quarterly results positively as the earnings did relatively better in comparison to its property peers (which registered much wider decreases). 4QFY20 new sales came in at RM87.3m, bringing FY20 sales to RM1bn which is below its full year target of RM1.3bn largely due to the Covid-19 impact. Both FY21 sales and GDV launch targets are set at RM1.1bn which will likely be achieved given that over RM700m worth of property bookings were made during the MCO period. Earnings visibility will continue to be supported by new sales and unbilled sales of 0.8x cover (RM1bn).

Forecast. Unchanged. Maintain BUY with an unchanged TP of RM2.06 based on a 30% discount to RNAV of RM2.94. We continue to like Matrix as it is well-positioned to ride on affordable housing theme within its successful townships with cheap land cost and sustained property sales. This is supported by an attractive dividend yield of 5.7% for FY21 and 6.8% for FY22, being one of the highest in the sector

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 10 Jul 2020