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Tuesday, June 30, 2020

[转贴] 正齐科技 MI – 企业分享会 - RH Research

正齐科技 MI – 企业分享会
  • Batu Kawan厂房已准备就绪,不过因为疫情的关系,启动计划从原本的Q1延迟至Q2。于去年到期的新兴工业地位 (Pioneer Status) 已获得延长5年至2024年1月,也就是说在期间可享有税收减免。
  • 大约90%的销售来自出口市场,其中5位客户的贡献占整体收入的60%左右。其外国客户群包括ASE、Amkor、Intel、Qualcomm、Broadcom、Qorvo等等,而本地部分客户群则是Inari、Carsem和Unisem。
  • 在疫情期间,其业务在3月处于完全停工的状态,而且还不能运输。4月逐渐恢复至25-50%,直到5月才100%复工。无法出国与客户谈生意是现阶段的最主要问题,需要一段时间才能逐渐将整体效率恢复到正常水平。
  • “不确定性”是半导体行业最担心的因素。中美贸易战的升温导致很多企业无法提供指引,主要因为当前的局势随时可出现转变。简短而言就是大家对未来展望没有任何想法,在资本开销方面无法作出决定。
  • 之前已下单的客户不敢取消,因为如果之后重新下单,需要再等上一段时间。然而,下半年的订单透明度暂时还很疲弱。
  • 其业务的未来前景将由5大趋势驱动,分别是5G、物联网、高效计算和人工智能。举个例子,旗下AI系列的机器主要用于处理渺小和复杂的芯片,如TSMC的7nm或者更小的芯片。今年9月将在台湾展览会上推广。
  • 至于Autobotics业务,整体贡献仍然非常小,现阶段还处于研发当中。可以专注的领域非常广,其中包括半导体、汽车、智能城市、医疗等等,因此认为其贡献很大可能将在未来超越现有业务,不过或许需要10年或以上。
  • 未来的趋势工业4.0将需要很高级的自动设备,以减少劳工数量。以旗下Kobot系列为例,以往2台机器需要1位员工来操作,不过在完成安装后,1位员工即可操作6台机器。
  • 虽然不能100%确保技术的知识产权不会被第三方抄袭,但是并未过度担心,因为在保护私隐方面已做得充足。即使同行拉拢内部工程师跳槽,也仅能得到一小部分而已。
  • 回顾2013年,当时是首家推出旋转式 (Rotary) 分拣机器的企业。虽然竞争对手之后也研发相同的机器,但是已处于落后的位置。如果想要一直处于领先地位,就必须以全新的技术来研发新产品,不能追随别人的步伐。
总结,MI已拟定未来5年的大蓝图,而目前正处于正确的方向。然而,由于受到疫情影响,加上下半年订单透明度疲弱,恐怕需要至少半年时间恢复至去年盈利水平。

此外,Autobotics业务仍处于研发阶段,需要继续烧钱,而且新厂房的折旧开销也将开始进账。有兴趣者不需要急着追高买入,可耐心等待回调才考虑出手。

#MI
纯属分享!

[转贴] 5分钟看懂AEONCR(5139) Q1 2021季报 & 股东大会详情 - ~ 第一天



2020年6月29日星期一

那天出业绩和股东大会的时候,正好天哥也生病了,所以也先休息为主,养好身体后再打算,而也有朋友问起关于这个季度的报告怎么看,有鉴于此,我就稍微简单的写一写,方便有持有该股的朋友可以看看和一起交流。

好了,废话少说,这个季度是今年第一个季度的报告,所以这个季度的报告如下。。

Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31 May 2020

AEON CREDIT SERVICE (M) BERHAD


Financial Year End 28 Feb 2021
Quarter 1 Qtr
Quarterly report for the financial period ended 31 May 2020
The figures have not been audited

Attachments

ACSM - Quarterly Results for the First Quarter ended 31.05.2020.pdf
581.8 kB


Default Currency
Other Currency
Currency: Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)


SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION
31 May 2020

INDIVIDUAL PERIOD
CUMULATIVE PERIOD

CURRENT YEAR QUARTER
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
QUARTER
CURRENT YEAR TO DATE
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
PERIOD

31 May 2020
31 May 2019
31 May 2020
31 May 2019


$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
1 Revenue
385,272
378,588
385,272
378,588
2 Profit/(loss) before tax
37,086
112,668
37,086
112,668
3 Profit/(loss) for the period
26,279
84,600
26,279
84,600
4 Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent
26,279
84,600
26,279
84,600
5 Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit)
10.29
32.69
10.29
32.69
6 Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER
AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
7 Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$)
6.0100
6.1400








从表面看来,营业额依然是非常美的,虽然3-5月是大马MCO最严重的时候,但是这段时期的营业额是继续保持着增长的,所以基本上算是不错了。但是值得注意的是,其实该股虽然营业额越来越多,生意越做越大,但是该股的净利上,却跌得让人无法接受,单单这样看,最少也跌了6-70%,到底是什么情况他的业绩下跌那么多呢?



这张图就清晰得多,从该股的营业额来看,我们不难发现其实是有在成长的,但是罪魁祸首OPERATION EXPENSES,居然大涨了25多%左右,这个就是他业绩下跌的主要原因,所以当支出突然那么高的情况底下,净利肯定萎缩的,而且随着生意做得更大,我们留意到他的利息支出上是大增了22%左右的,但是这个问题不大,羊毛出在羊身上,利息支出多,生意收入自然多的,只是被他的EXPENSES拖垮,导致他的净利才会大力萎缩。其实他过去几个季度都是一样的情况,唯一要明白的是,为何支出会大增?其实上几个季度我们也弄懂了,他主要是财报准则改变,所以impairment增加了而已,而这个季度恐怕就是因为MCO而有让顾客暂延还款所致,所以等下我们找找看数据变化如何。。


他的长期借贷是变少了,主要原因应该是这几个月没有新生意来的缘故吧,但是他的短期借贷是增加的,而且比长期贷款增加的幅度更多,所以整体来说是好事,而且他的现钱也变得更多,所以也是好事来的,最起码有更多的子弹可以熬得过这一轮风暴。


但是债务也是有增加的,但是羊毛出在羊身上,这些是没办法的,要扩充生意,这个就必须的。而短期债务是变少了,长期债务则变多了,总的来说还是有增加咯,就看自己怎么看了。而每股净值其实是变少的,所以其实并不是什么好事来的。



这个是现金流表,其实是OK的WOR,只不过他真的祸不单行,之前是因为换了财报准则的缘故,所以做了很多的impairment,而今年又遇到MCO,做更多=。=,真的是一波未平一波又起呢,不过公司管理钱方面也很谨慎,这个季度他借贷出去的钱有变少了少许,所以借贷公司一般上都是把钱借出去才对的,他还现金流正数,所以基本上是借出去都很谨慎了。。


这个是管理层给的年度prospect,大家也可以看看。

而24号那天,其实公司正好是股东大会,所以以下内容也是我在网络的股东大会收集到的信息记录起来,方便大家查阅。



-AEONCR 2020财政年,获得22.7%的总交易和借贷(T & F)成长。主要的成长业务为 Auto Financing (32.2%),信用卡(25.6%),电单车借贷 (25.4%)和objective Financing(20.5%)。而在2021财政年,碍于COVID的影响,所以公司会尽可能的协助顾客,从而让公司可以不影响借贷组合素质的前提下前进。

-公司有在4月1日至5月31日这两个月,允许顾客暂延还款。也让信用卡顾客,可以把余额转换成36个月的分期贷款。从4月开始,总共有3500位左右的顾客从他们的信用卡余额转换成36个月的分期贷款。

-至于其他类别的贷款,只要不是超过90天的呆账,都自动延缓2个月的还款日期。总延缓贷款的数目,总共占总组合的4.8%。而信用卡则占2.6%顾客转换余额至36个月的分期贷款。

-公司的NPL依然保持稳定,即使是因为MCO而导致暂延还款。

-以2020年财政年为例,公司的22.7%总交易和借贷成长,有好一部份都来自于M40顾客群,当中包括个人借贷,高端电单车借贷,高端自行车借贷,新车于日本二手车借贷和platinum信用卡等等,都是公司成长的动力。

-公司的e wallet跟市场上的对手走不一样的路线,公司主要定位于retail layalty e-wallet,受惠于aeon和aeonbig强劲的品牌和市场。未来也会透过这个wallet提供一些借贷上的服务,包括提供pre approval limit给符合资格的顾客。

-目前公司的政策专注在让前aeon 会员转变成AEON MEMBER PLUS VISA CARD的顾客,也鼓励顾客下载公司的AEON WALLET,公司也从这些交易中赚取费用,而且这些顾客的资料让公司可以更准确的提供更多顾客需要的借贷或服务,从而增长公司的业绩。

-公司当下的电单车借贷,市占率为大概30%。而公司在2020财政年,也开始把业务扩充至healthcare,自行车,按摩椅和其他零售产品的借贷。未来,公司希望把贷款批准的时间继续缩短,目标为30分钟以内可以完成借贷程序。

-公司接下来会专注在数码化所有的程序和效率,包括robotic process,未来如果有机会,公司也可能会参与电子/虚拟银行的竞标。

-公司的借贷成本为3.16-4.49%。而国家银行降低OPR,对公司的借贷成本是有正面的帮助。



AEONCR 5139 RM9.45 (29-6-2020)
PE : 10.26+-
DY : 3.84%+-
ROE : 15.33%+-
从公司上面的价格图表来说,其实真的会吓一跳,因为几年下来的涨幅,在短短1年里面,就全部回吐了,但是这个也没办法,毕竟近期COVID的缘故,公司的生意真的很难做,生意是做得更大,但是净利却变少,虽然目前这些账目还没变成呆账,但是公司已经做了impairment,就看最后能否收得回,如果收得回,那么未来的业绩就靠谱了,但是还是有赌博的风险了,就要继续观察公司接下来的账目会怎么做了,不过最严峻的一期业绩(MCO期间)已经出炉,也符合了预期,那么接下来只要不太弱,都会慢慢恢复,相信都是好的。而目前来说,股价已经开始有吸引力了,只不过就看我们自己是否要承受风险了,毕竟目前还不明朗,财有这样的价格,如果未来明朗了业绩是真的恢复,那么就没这样的价格了,反之如果未来业绩是往更糟糕的方向进发,自然价格会更糟糕,所以我才说有赌博的风险。而个人而言,目前我持票是不少的,所以没有冲动让我继续增持,我会继续守着,等待复苏就好。除非该股的股息更高,或者开始复苏,才会考虑是否增持。目前而言我个人比较倾向与高息股。而这只股来说,如果真的要买,个人认为暂时是有一定的价值的,但是不宜ALL IN,分批慢慢累积或许是一个不错的选择,当然,就看自己是要承受风险,还是等一切明朗化后买更贵了,投资本来就是GIVE AND TAKE的~。~

写这篇文章的时候我个人是持有该公司股份,但是请别看到我的文章就胡乱以为我叫你买或卖,整篇文章并没有任何买卖建议,或推高股压低价的其他企图,单纯分享我的功课,本人怒不对你的盈亏负任何责任,谢谢。


你的一个小小的like或share,是让我们用心整理更多好文章的最佳鼓励和动力哦^。^
HAPPY INVESTING
BY ~ 第一天


https://windscopo.blogspot.com/2020/06/5aeoncr5139-q1-2021.html

Panasonic - Weaker Demand Anticipated

KEY INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS

  • FY20 earnings below expectation
  • FY20 normalised net profit was marginally higher at RM111.2m
  • 4QFY20 normalised earnings dipped by 1.4%yoy to RM25.2m
  • FY21F/FY22F earnings revised in anticipation of potentially weaker demand ahead
  • Maintain NEUTRAL with a revised TP of RM29.62

FY20 earnings below expectation as normalised net profit of RM111.2m made up 93% of our full year estimates but was largely within consensus’ forecast at 104%. We have excluded foreign exchange gain from our normalised PAT. A dividend of 183.0sen was declared, falling short of the 230.0sen we had anticipated.

FY20 normalised net profit was marginally higher at RM111.2m as revenue fell by 6.7%yoy to RM1052.0m. Panasonic Manufacturing Malaysia Bhd (Panasonic)’s net profit was largely unchanged albeit a dip in revenue mainly due to lower raw material cost and lower advertising and promotional costs. For the full year fan products and others saw PBT dropped by 15.1%yoy to RM67.3m although home appliances PBT rose 12.0%yoy to RM67.1m. Sales in Malaysia declined by 11.0%yoy to RM426.6m while it improved in Asia ex Malaysia and Japan by 2.0%yoy to RM356.5m.

4QFY20 normalised earnings dipped by 1.4%yoy to RM25.2m as revenue fell by 28.9%yoy to RM204.7m. Revenue fell due to weaker demand from home appliances (-12.4%yoy) and fan products (- 6.3%yoy). Geographically, local and exports to Asia ex Japan and Malaysia declined by 15.4% and 10.2% respectively. Net profit did not decline as sharply as revenue due to lower raw material cost and lower advertising and promotional expenses.

FY21F/FY22F earnings revised in anticipation of potentially weaker demand ahead. As we expect consumer sentiment to remain cautious amid the pandemic and in view of lockdowns that occurred in the various countries that Panasonic exports to, we think that sales may be sluggish in 1QFY21. Moreover, its factory has halted operations during the Movement Control Order (MCO). As such, we revise our FY21F and FY22F earnings forecasts downwards by -30.8% and -14.2% respectively. Cushioning the drop in sales will be lower raw material costs.

Target price. Our target price is revised to RM29.62 (previously RM30.66) which is based on pegging the FY22F EPS of RM2.11 per share to PER of 14.0x. The assigned PER multiple, which is the group’s three year average historical PER, is unchanged.

Source: MIDF Research - 30 Jun 2020

Hartalega - PE to normalize to 15 after accounting for full year explosive results. TP upgraded to RM24.80.

Author: PelhamBlackFund | Publish date: Wed, 24 Jun 2020, 12:43 AM

Hartalega's FY21 full year earnings is expected to leapfrog to RM2.8bil or EPS of RM0.83/share.

Superior margin ahead of its peers

TopGlove's profit is expected to jump by 5% for every 1% hike in ASP. Hartalega's profit is expected to jump 11% for every 1% hike in ASP. This is due to extreme efficiencies at NGC plant compared to its peers. Hartalega's plant are almost 100% automated.

ASP hike of 35% - 40% for June

Net profit to jump 350% - 400% from June and onwards. Assuming a 35% hike in ASP, Harta's net profit is expected to jump by 385%. Net profit for next quarter is expected to be between RM450mil - RM600mil.

Largest base in US

Harta's base in US is 55%. Compared to its peers, its the largest.

Antimicrobial glove catalyst

Game changer for Harta. No other big 4 glove companies is able to produce antimicrobial glove at a mass scale. This gloves has already been sold in Europe. Once FDA is obtain by year end, Harta is expected to command another premium to its share price.

Director acquisition of shares

Compared to its peers, only Harta's directors/founders have been acquiring shares at high prices. This is a strong sign that the management has absolute confidence in the company.

Valuation

Harta is undervalued compared to its peers at current valuation of 15x FY21 PE. Ascribe a 30x FY21 PE to arrive at RM24.80.

We believe Harta fully deserves to be the largest market cap company in Malaysia.

Monday, June 29, 2020

蔡金強:內房困局:蛇無頭而不行

文章日期:2020年6月29日

【明報專訊】過去一個來月,寫了很多集關於政治的話題,小金人自己都有點厭,本來今天想聊聊中國北斗衛星導航系統與美國GPS競爭,或者海外鬼扯三峽大壩危險(美國胡佛大壩衛星圖像其實更為傾斜,大壩、道路、橋樑例牌歪曲,這是衛星視像曲線慣常,所謂長江世紀洪水的流量只有1998年大洪水時的一半都沒有)。算了,今天不想說這些沉重的話題,世間最不能直視的唯陽光和人心,今天重回投資話題。

環球股市歌舞昇平了兩三個月,美國納斯達克甚至創了新高,香港也很多新經濟股票創了新高。可舊經濟股斯人獨憔悴,銀行、保險、地產、原材料、澳門賭業、交通、汽車這些板塊通通乏人問津,錢全部流到新經濟那邊去,哪怕虧損,哪怕鬼扯,背後事實上是對經濟前景的極度沒信心,覺得這些舊經濟公司的估值毫無可能維持。

投資要「趁勢」 孤芳自賞只宜小注

事實上,這是很搞鬼的,如果明年經濟崩盤,汽車、房子就沒人買?難道李寧(2331)的衣服,兩千一瓶的茅台,淘寶/京東(9618)這些線上零售商,還有那些燒錢維生的醫藥股就能活得好好嗎?小金人說這些,不是想辯駁,市場的東西沒什麼好反駁的,現在的我不也一樣傾注主要心神在這些新經濟板塊上嗎?資本市場來說,「趁勢」還是核心功力,孤芳自賞只適宜中小注碼。

小金人以前是地產板塊研究出身,如要在價值板塊留一奇兵,我還是會選內房。內房素來beta極高,兩三年一個大行情,2016、2017是十年一遇大行情,當時不少內房漲了三四倍,最耀眼的當屬融創(1918)、恒大(3333)、碧桂園(2007)

內房股奇兵特徵仍在

2018、2019尚有新城(1030)、奧園(3883)、時代(1233)、龍光(3380)這些燦爛奪目的新星,倍漲者也有一些。進入2020年,全球亂了套,美國全面圍剿中國,加上全球新冠疫情,股市deep-v形狀暴跌暴漲,圍堵傳統價值板塊乏人問津。

今年以來內房最耀眼的也就金地商置(0535)、建發(1908)、世茂(0813)、合景(1813)這些,要不就是前者的均好型新星,要不就是後者的物管分拆。其他公司股價通通疲不可興,管你是中海(0688)、潤地(1109)、萬科(2202),還是恒大、融創、碧桂園……市場通通沒興趣。小金人已經說了,投資者在市場面前無法逆勢而行,所以能做的只能是「中小注」孤獨的留守。如果你真對基本面有信心,對這家公司的銷售增長,盈利增長,財務狀况,分紅有把握,而這家公司現有估值只是三四倍市盈率,7至8厘分紅率,那就當一隻奇兵吧!孤獨的留守吧!應該會有驚喜的。大部隊還是得趁勢!

市場喜新厭舊今年特別嚴重

投資內房的朋友不少很沮喪,他們不明白,新舊經濟冰火兩重天也不是今年的事,為何今年特別嚴重,內房整體這麼疲不可興。很多人覺得是政策,絕對鬼扯,別說政府不放鬆等等,放什麼鬆,房地產是國內現有少數還能掙錢的行業,別說龍頭一年掙兩三百億人民幣,中大型的一年三五十億也比比皆是,這在國內的企業絕對是天文數字。所以,政策總體是不會緊,也不會鬆,大體平穩,資金面略好。別分析那些漫天遍地的各種所謂政策,很容易精神錯亂。銷售增長和盈利增速今年也不算差,上市房企今年應該還能有個單位數的增長,不錯啦!今年疫情下這種增速挺光榮了。那為啥內房股價不漲了?小金人覺得一個是市場喜新厭舊,喜歡新經濟厭惡舊經濟,導致板塊沒有增量資金,這不是一天兩天的事了;今年特殊情况是內房板塊沒有帶頭大哥,沒有龍頭帶隊,俗話說,蛇無頭而不行,沒有帶頭表現,能吸引市場主力資金的龍頭股,內房很容易一潭死水,今年就是這樣。

世茂合景金地商置難帶起行業

今年以來,內房傳統龍頭:萬科、中海、潤地,還是新興龍頭:恒大、融創、碧桂園等,除了龍湖(0960)還有點力以外,其他全線熄火,連新城也熄火。帶隊的任務落到世茂、合景、金地商置、建發這些身上,這不是為難了它們嗎?除了世茂個頭和市值較大,其他幾個都是內房中小型股。這種情况下,這些股票的好表現不足以吸引新的資金進入內房板塊,這才是內房最大的問題。

那在這些新舊龍頭裏,為何熄火呢?首先,內房的帶頭大哥不好當,內房不是當時得令的板塊,相反還有點道德原罪,很容易被政府不待見,尤其民企,這種情况下,傳統龍頭中可以預見會以沉悶姿態示人的,有萬科、碧桂園,甚至中海,也就是一年5%至10%盈利增速,而且口氣很保守,當然5%至10%在現在事實上也是不錯的,可投資者覺得不夠喉。恒大玩的是格局,不存在分析可言。碰巧今年融創也在休整,也就是快速幾年增長後的休息,所以很安靜,而華潤置地也因為管理層大量換血,加上銷售引導偏保守而力有不逮去lead整個板塊。龍湖一直是優等生,可流動性不足,而且估值有不少溢價。

融創潤地分拆物管 年底料再熱鬧起來

小金人覺得內房家裏無大人,小孩一團亂的局面在年底或者明年頭會有較大改善。首先,融創和華潤置地應該能回歸,兩者在休整過後,應該能重拾較強的銷售增速,而且兩者年底都有物管分拆,都相當龐大,市值應該都在三四百億港元。而且估值實在是匪夷所思的便宜。如果兩者能回歸,配合仍獨立支撐的龍湖,那就能形成新的合力。再加上一直很優秀的旭輝(0884)、龍光、時代、奧園、世茂、合景這些,板塊就會耀眼起來。

所以內房今年以來的疲不可興並不是什麼政策不政策、催化劑、驚喜啥的。正常板塊,你每天要驚喜,要催化劑,驚什麼喜?三四倍2020市盈率能再有什麼大催化劑?說預期就更傷感情了,誰有什麼預期?不是已經沒有太多人關注了嘛?還預什麼期?老實說,內房現在是家裏沒大人,小孩亂成一鍋粥,自然也就沒人待見!等等吧,大人快回來了!

(作者基金持有融創、金地商置、時代中國等內房)
奧陸資本總裁兼投資總監
[蔡金強 奧陸之聲]

潘啓才:凱升似想供乾 值得期待

文章日期:2020年6月29日

【明報專訊】去年4月,周焯華出任主席的太陽城集團(1383),以每股1.94元,向凱升主要股東郭人豪及益航股份收購其共約3.7億股股份,涉及7.19億元的凱升控股(0102)24.68%股權,持股量增至27.97%,成為凱升主要股東。收購資金由周焯華私人早前借予公司的15億元無抵押貸款融資支付。其實太陽城於較早前已持有凱升3.29%股份,並已委派董事盧啟邦進入凱升董事會。

周焯華重金買來 應有後着

如果再翻查歷史,其實凱升於2013年獲新濠(0200)主席何猷龍入股,成為主要股東,並赴俄羅斯開賭場,轉型為博彩股。

但何猷龍於2017年12月全數出售手上的凱升股份予郭人豪,並退任凱升主席及非執行董事。

當周焯華在去年4月花掉7億多元入主凱升後,為了加速業務發展,在3個月後,馬上按每股1.01元,配售了3億股新股,佔經擴大後已發行股本約16.63%,淨籌2.97億元,用於進一步發展在俄羅斯綜合娛樂區的酒店及博彩業務。

料似翻炒太陽城上次供股

當然周生用重金買回來的凱升不會就此停下來,為了顯示他的雄心壯志,他再度出招,於今年6月2號,出了一份通告,董事會建議以二供三方式,供股價為0.6元,扣除開支後,集資約16.23億元。

這次供股有兩點需要留意:第一,作為大股東的太陽城及其相關人士,根據不可撤銷承諾,已承諾參與供股,此外,周生旗下的公司也承諾出任包銷商,包銷所有不獲股東認講的供股股票,如果參考公司近期股價走勢,無論在公告供股的前後,股價基本上維持在0.58至0.59元之間,這種格局,根據過往經驗,周生擺到明想借這次供股,把凱升供乾,才去做世界,有點翻炒太陽城上次供股的經驗。

對於我們,搵到一隻快要被供乾的股票,當然是一件好事,而更重要一點,在現今唔算好的市况,有能力供乾一隻股票,在在顯示大股東周生實力雄厚,因為這次供股,如果想供乾,唔想小股東參與供股,周生要自己出資近16億港元。

既然周生有此雄厚實力,我們對供股完成後的股價走勢,當然會有所期望。

www.phemey.com
[潘啓才 通天財技]

Saturday, June 27, 2020

银行股估值历史新低·杰富瑞:卖手套·买银行


(吉隆坡26日讯)分析师认为,亚洲区域的冠状病毒病疫情已逐渐缓和,投资者可考虑采取新投资策略,沽售套利股价高涨的手套股,转向买进估值降至历史新低的银行股,以“一出一进”双向投资策略,等待银行股下一波周期涨潮的降临。

跨国投行杰富瑞(Jefferies)在报告中指出,适逢冠病疫情期间,大马手套股获得追逐热捧而取得极标青的股价表现,反观银行则朝反方向挫跌。

今年至今
3大手套股涨200%
金融指数崩跌17%

该机构策略师克里斯多夫伍特指出,3大手套股今年至今涨幅已超过200%,同期富时大马金融指数则崩跌17%。

他认为,目前此“一涨一跌”的趋势可能出现逆转,所以可能是时候“转码头”,沽出手套股,买进银行股。
















黄氏艾芬:加码手套
减持银行金融

不过,艾芬黄氏研究分析员却另有看法,它仍然建议持续“加码”手套股以及“减持”银行及金融股。

“虽然手套股今年至今股价最亮眼,但我们继续看好手套股的股价还有上涨空间,这主要是获得强劲盈利成长的支撑与挹注,预料它们今年下半年的盈利将更强劲,特别是疫情时期胶手套需求大增,使胶手套公司有能力及条件上调产品的售价。”

目前,手套公司多已腾出部份产能以攫取现货订单需求,这些现货订单的价格往往比正常订单价格高出至少2至3倍。艾芬黄氏的首选手套股为顶级手套(T O P G L O V,7113,主板医疗保健组)及贺特佳(HARTA,5168,主板医疗保健组)。

该行预料手套短缺将持续至今年下半年,特别是目前增加的产能不足以应付市场需求,预料手套公司将在今年杪之前每月将产品售价上调至少3%,而增加赚幅将直接流入公司盈利。随着全球政府重新开放经济,预料连非医药保健领域的手套使用率也高涨。

该行指出,从今年初开始,由于全球市场对胶手套需求殷切,使胶手套公司的正常交货期,从原本的30~45天延长至12个月。就算中国疫情已受控制,惟至今对胶手套的需求还是走高,预料此趋势在出现解药及疫苖之前还会持续。

谈到银行股前景,艾芬黄氏分析员指出,虽然该行将银行及金融股的目标价及评级上调,以反映较低的股票风险溢价,特别是市场对银行及金融领域的风险胃纳已有所改善,惟总的来看,该行还是对银行业保持“减持”评级。

该行预期2020财政年整体银行业核心净利按年下跌28.6%,直至2021年料回扬13%,主要下行风险包括商业产业的供应与需求失衡、未售住宅单位的价格不平衡及库存偏高、以及来自农业、建筑、制造业及家庭等领域的资产素质风险。

目前银行及金融业的潜在利好,包括调升利率、资金市场活跃、拥屋计划及企业并购升温等。至于潜在利空,主要是较高的减记及疲弱的贷款成长。

该行预期银行及金融领域的2020年下半年盈利前景,将反映较高的信贷成本(使银行采取预防性质的减记措施),而市场预料2021年将有望浮现复苏。2020年的贷款成长将保持平淡无奇,因建筑及产业发展计划停滞不前及前景低迷,加上一般的消费者和企业保持谨慎,特别是失业率走高及社交距离措施所致。

该行预期银行业的呆账风险有增无减,于2021年的信贷成本持续走高,惟幸没有2020年般的严峻。投资者应该注意银行及金融公司的资产负债表,以及贷款亏损缓冲能力。

该行的首选金融股只有永旺信贷(AEONCR,5139,主板金融服务组),评级“买进”及目标价9令吉80仙,主要是看好2022财政年预测股本回酬率可达14.4%、较低净信贷成本及更兴旺的应收款项成长等利好支持。



https://www.sinchew.com.my/content/content_2296782.html

[转贴] 浅谈手套股 - RH Research

手套股经历一波大牛行情后,目前已迈入平稳的调整期,不再像之前那么波动。近期的热潮已经降温,除了成交量萎缩,也已有几天不见有部落格大写文章。今天就来分享个人对这个板块的看法。

几乎可以肯定,疫情难以在今年内得到有效控制,因此全球将面临与疫情共存的局面。也就是说,医疗手套的需求在短时间内还是非常强劲。如今手套在全球范围内出现供不应求的局面,订单更是已经排到2021下半年。


在每盒手套价格大涨的情况下,手套业者未来几个季度的业绩基本上已确定非常好。每家投行也纷纷提高目标价。不过,大家最关心的还是手套股的上涨行情还会延续吗?

事实上,在手套股暴涨后,市场已经出现很大的分歧。有的认为所有利好已经反映在股价上,有的则唱好未来几个业绩仍高于分析师预期。从中立的角度,个人认为大家应该将目光投放在2021年之后的手套供需行情。

手套供需

众所周知,现阶段很多业者都积极扩充产能,以迎合市场的需求,不过一旦疫情结束后,确实是有可能出现产能过剩的情况。中国有2家业者近期已宣布未来3-5年的扩充计划,而且规模足以媲美本地巨头。

首先是英科医疗,近期在中国股市上演超过4倍的疯狂涨势。目前年产能为190亿左右。未来计划在各省打造4个生产基地,累积扩充的产能高达500多亿。也就是说在完成计划后,其产能几乎和现在的Top Glove一样。

其二是蓝帆医疗,预计在2020年底提高年产能至250亿,并计划在2021-2023年期间进一步扩充300亿产能,也就是说总产能有望在4年内达到550亿。

以上的计划看似非常有雄心,而且具有很大的威胁,不过实际冲击预计不大。要扩充如此多的产能除了需要庞大的资金,也需要耗上至少8-10年才能建成。Top Glove用了30年时间才有今天的规模,难道他们仅需要几年就达成?

另一方面,英科和蓝帆的主要产品是PVC手套 (Vinyl) ,占组合的近80%。两者未来的扩充核心也是投放在PVC手套上,相信是因为在丁晴手套的竞争上完全没有优势。

此外,PVC手套的生产原料是塑料,属于污染程度高的产品。全球近年来已逐渐从PVC或橡胶手套转向使用丁晴手套,这是未来不变的趋势。

至于需求,全球手套在2005-2019年期间录得大约8%的复合增长率。随着全球卫生意识得到结构性提升,加上肺炎疫情对全球影响程度大大超出SARS,Top Glove预测手套正常的需求增速将从以往的8-10%增至12-15%。

2019年的全球手套需求为2,600亿左右,而2020年则预测为3,100亿左右。全球5大手套业者的总产能为大约1,900亿,占市场份额的60%。以他们明年平均20%的产能扩充速度,暂时还不成问题, 毕竟订单已经排到2021下半年。

值得一提,手套业者也已经收到包括航空、餐厅、服装、酒店等新用户的订单。就连个人近期去Mamak喝茶,也看到所有员工穿着手套,相信这已经是新常态。

暴利税 Windfall Tax

政府曾在1998年和2008年向本地棕油业征收暴利税。如今市场上也纷纷传出政府会重蹈覆辙,不过目标却转向手套业。

个人认为不能相提并论,因为当棕油价格跌至非常烂时,政府将调整出口税,甚至给予补贴金,以协助业者度过难关。也就是在行情差的时候伸出援手。

假设有一天手套价格跌至非常烂,政府会出手支援吗?答案是不会。那么基本上现在就没有权力和资格向手套业者征收暴利税。Top Glove也出面澄清,政府官员至今没有上门商讨相关事宜。

回到最重要的问题,手套股涨势完了吗?取决于是否还有新一批资金进场。直接来说就是取决于病毒何时结束,以及有效的疫苗何时问世。

个人认为由于手套股未来几个季度业绩大好,这波上涨周期相信还会维持一段时间。

纯属分享!

凡人变网红,你能吗?/拿督刘明

上个星期我在文章截稿后在面簿看到网友上传了一则印籍网红夫妇的不平凡故事,我有点无地自容。

很抱歉,我们只关心和自私地活在自己的圈子里,无视友族同胞们的动向,其实在马来西亚,友族尤其是马来人的网红圈可是一门不可忽视的大生意!

先谈谈那对在控管令期间 爆红的印籍夫妇吧!

Sugu Pavithra 是他们在YouTube 频道的名称,是太太S Pavithra 和先生M Sugu 的合体。

这一对普通到不行的年轻夫妻,育有两名孩子,住在霹雳和丰的一个园坵宿舍里,家里的经济支柱全靠丈夫那微弱的收入支撑。

今年的一月份,Pavithra 就开始尝试在YouTube 教烹饪课,都是一些马来西亚人熟悉的印度菜肴。

她的丈夫Sugu全程用手机录像,完全没有其他摄影器材加持,而Pavithra的烹饪厨具都是她平时做饭惯用的,我们认为普通不过、理所当然的微波炉或压力锅,对他们来说却是遥不可及的奢侈品,所以Pavithra 烹饪出来的食物,绝对原汁原味、货真价实!

在一位也是YouTuber 友人的指导下,她的第一个烹饪视频点击率就达到了140万人,而他们在YouTube 的订阅量和追随者迅速达到1万人,他们很快就成为YouTube 生意伙伴关系。

订阅人数暴增

这对年轻YouTuber 的订阅量每天都快速增长,尤其是控管令期间经马新社专题报道之后,他们的订阅人数从16万人,突然暴增至44万人。

6 月初首相在他最新一轮的经济刺激方案提起了Sugu Pavithra这个励志故事,又再一次让他们的订阅人数飙升至65万人!

为了体恤他们的努力和坚持,首相派人赠送了他们一个录影用的三脚架和一些家用厨电,还亲自签名题字以示表扬!

我上YouTube 浏览了他们的最新视频,为了全职照顾两位年幼的孩子和更好地配合妻子的事业,Sugu已经辞去了他原来的工作。

他们用YouTube 赚来的钱购买了新的房子,让人不可思议的是,他们把搬家和摆设家具诸如此类的小事全程录影并搬上网,点击视频人数竟然高达数十万计!

Add caption
Pavithra 在YouTube 教烹饪课,她的丈夫Sugu全程用手机录像,完全没有其他摄影器材加持。

3因素瞬间爆红

Sugu Pavithra 为什么瞬间爆红?

我想是同理心和代入感作祟!

1. 疫情肆虐期间人心惶惶,很多人都在为工作朝不保夕而担忧。Sugu Pavithra 的成功让他们仿佛在黑暗的尽头看到曙光!

2. Pavithra 出生低微,受教育程度不高,还能操流利的马来语,让B40低收入群体更有代入感:成功并不是那么遥不可及,也未必需要高学历和高人脉,只要努力,呆在家里做自己喜欢的事,也能有出头天!

3. 媒体的推波助澜和人们对毫不起眼的小人物的好奇,推高了点击率!

冇人、冇物、冇貌、冇样却能在短短数月累计65万人脉,人生更因此随之改变,这的确是一个传奇的激励故事。

马来艺人兼网红粉丝不输国外

那么那些有模有样、有才华有能力的艺人又该如何?

其实我国的马来艺人兼网红累计的粉丝人数,与国外艺人相比绝对不遑多让。

我几年前开始学习用面薄做广告的时候,导师就和我提及Neelofa 这号人物。

事隔多年,我上网查了一下她的资料,天啊!她的Instagram 粉丝竟然高达730万人!而面薄粉丝也有近200万人。

善用名气赚钱

Neelofa 非常年轻,来自吉兰丹,今年只有31 岁。2010年赢得了某杂志美后就开始进入演艺圈,之后一路平步青云走到现在。

她非常聪明,小小年纪就懂得利用自己的名气赚钱。她的网卖非常成功,任何产品只要贴上Neelofa 肯定秒杀。

她的阿拉伯长裙和头巾,卖到全世界37个国家,包括澳洲、英国和欧洲。2017年福布斯遴选她为亚洲30 岁以下最有影响力人士之一!

2019年10月,她荣获有网红奥斯卡之称的皇家摩纳哥网红奖颁发的2019年度商业组最佳网红奖!

2017年她也被亚航创办人东尼邀请为亚航独立董事!

年轻、漂亮、聪明、有商业敏锐度,这是Neelofa 给所有认识她的人的深刻印象。

无独有偶,我在网上搜寻到的马来男网红,也是有730万的Instagram 粉丝,面薄总数也有近200万人,他是马来社会知名度蛮高的艺人兼网红之一Zizan Razak。

Zizan 也很年轻,今年才37 岁,2007年出道,当年赢得搞笑大王(Raja Lawak)比赛第二名,就开始进入演艺圈至今。

Zizan Razak 倒没有Neelofa 那么有商业头脑和野心,但他拍片和代言产品也足够让他丰衣足食,毫无意外成为我国名副其实最富有谐星!

华裔商家可借镜

其实马来友族是非常崇拜偶像的一个族群。他们比较淳朴单纯,非常关注和信任偶像的一举一动,所以凡马来艺人代言的产品几乎都能掀起抢购潮。

华裔商家要想突破,通过马来网红带货也许是一个不错的选择途径。

这一期本来答应要谈中国网红直播,但我发觉马来网红其实也有很多值得我们大书特书和学习的地方。

别忘了,马来同胞是全世界最好的顾客,不挑剔、不讲价,而且他们才是马来西亚最大客户群,大家应该多加关注他们的动向才能有所突破!

https://www.enanyang.my/名家专栏/凡人变网红你能吗拿督刘明

1年赚1亿的网红/拿督刘明



李子柒烹饪的短视频,把她住的山区拍得如幽谷仙境,犹如人间香格里拉!

上两期聊过了马来西亚的网红经济,今天谈一谈大家也许更熟悉的中国网红。

我曾经在一篇文章里说过,我们的电商经济落后中国和台湾等或许是一件好事,因为我们可以取人之长补己之短。

这论述引起了一些争议,但事隔多年,我想事实证明我的想法是对的,至少在中国走过的场景,陆续出现在大马。那些趁早铺陈或“趋吉避凶“的电商如好友大伟,都在中国网军大举进驻之前建立了自己的电商团队,不但逃过一劫,业务还欣欣向荣!

台湾电商比中国电商更早进入大马,但当时来的都是一些培训、应用程式(App)、仓储物流软件等企业,对大马电商固然有启蒙的意义,但对大马电商的影响,远远低于中国!

中国电商竞争激烈,为了生存无所不用其极,在平台开店已经无利可图,直播带货至少还有一线生机!

中国直播兴起于6年前左右吧,好像还早面簿一年。直播带货虽然不是淘宝开始的,但由淘宝带旺并掀起直播在中国的热潮,倒是不争的事实。

网红孵化平台造人才

因为前景备受追捧,直播业在中国融资不难,所以很多网红在专业的网红孵化平台培训下产生,李佳琦和薇娅就是很好的例子!

这两大直播天王天后相信很多人都很熟悉,我在上两期的专栏也稍微提到了他们,他们的曝光率超高,背后的故事大家都如数家珍,我就不再画蛇添足、锦上添花了。

我对近期人气越来越旺的李子柒反而感到好奇。一位只念到小学4年级就缀学的女孩子,住在四川省一个荒无人烟的山区,靠短视频1年就赚了近1亿人民币(约6000万令吉)。

最神奇的是她的烹饪视频从不带货,却让你心甘情愿上她的天猫店抢购有关食材,每月营销超过4000万人民币(2400万令吉)!

李子柒短视频崛起

李子柒年幼时父母离异,1996年父亲逝世,继母对她不好,爷爷奶奶心疼她,把她接回家。

爷爷在乡下是个有名的厨师,善于农活,也会编制竹器,邻居红白事都喜欢找他帮忙,李子柒就这样耳濡目染之下小小年纪就会做饭,也对其他传统手艺情有独钟,尊定了她后来成功的基石!

爷爷不久后也因病去世,李子柒为了生活只好一个人到城里打工。

她当过侍应,后来为了更好的收入学会了当夜店DJ 。

2012年因为奶奶生了一场大病,她为了照顾好年迈体弱的奶奶而放弃一切,回到了四川乡下山区。

她在淘宝开了一家网店,但生意不好,听取了弟弟的建议,她开始拍摄短视频希望让生意火起来。

李子柒非常好学,前期的视频或照片都不理想,为了把视频拍的更专业,她到处拜师。

终于有一次她的作品被美拍总执行长发现,满心欢喜地点赞并把它发在首页,就这样李子柒的短视频开始备受瞩目。

就地取材拜师学艺

我看了蛮多李子柒烹饪的短视频,发觉她的视频非常唯美。她的烹饪视频和一般大厨教你做菜的拍摄手法完全不一样,她就地取材,把农活都摄入镜头,把她住的山区拍得如幽谷仙境,犹如人间香格里拉!

李子柒的每一个视频都有一个非常有创意的主题,比如“蒜的一生“。

整个短片就记录了她如何培育蒜苗,施肥浇水,直到它茁壮成长,然后收割。接下来就是如何用蒜为主菜下锅,炒出几道香喷喷、热腾腾的农家菜肴。

把蒜当人办,用视频道出“蒜”的一生!有趣、生动、非常有心思!

她甚至自学古法印刷、染坊和自制烘窑烘培面包,直让人感叹:还有什么活这小妮子不会的?

她为了制作兰州拉面,特地去拜师学艺,用两个月时间学会如何拉出好看又有弹性的面条,搞到自己双臂几乎提不起来,就为了拍摄5分钟“正宗兰州拉面”!

造就中国文化奇迹

她前期的视频都是自己拍摄、制作和剪辑,水准之高,和专业团队不遑多让!

就因为这样,有人怀疑她是网红平台制造出来的产物,作品背后都是专业团体在操控。她一度为此谣言大受打击、心灰意冷而停止拍摄!

李子柒在中国有超过8000万的粉丝,散布在所有自媒体平台。她是YouTube中文视频第一名,订户1100万人,比美国CNN有线电视台的1000万订户还多!

李子柒的视频,没有一个字夸中国好,但她讲好了中国文化、讲好了中国故事。

她只是在那里默默地干着农活,偶尔和奶奶说几句四川方言,但她的视频却让全世界的人开始喜欢有趣好看的中国传统文化,让人喜欢上勤奋的中国人民,喜欢上这个国家!

李子柒是个奇迹,一颗平常心造就了国家文化的奇迹!

诚意决心打动人心

李子柒为什么成功?

她的孝心冥冥中牵引出她的福报。假如她不是因为心疼奶奶而不顾一切回到山区乡下,她的人生会从新改写!

她做人做事完美要求,凡事要做到最高规格,这从她视频的水准看得出来!

李子柒非常有创意,用唯美的拍摄风格记录着食材的故事,非常感动人心。很多外国读者留言都说:她的视频承载着满满的正能量,足于疗伤!

中国的舞台够大,加上5000年的文化底蕴,让她尽情发挥想象力。时间、空间都对了!

她隐藏在内心不服输的精神,小时候的贫穷反而是一种不可多得的推动力量,养成她不向困境低头的性格!

不知道为什么,我看了李子柒,其他带货网红还真不够看!

这是何等境界啊?

https://www.enanyang.my/名家专栏/1年赚1亿的网红拿督刘明

Friday, June 26, 2020

MI TECHNOVATION財務解析

Author: Adi_Investor | Publish date: Fri, 26 Jun 2020, 4:22 PM

MI TECHNOVATION (MI, 5286),前身为Mi Equipment Holdings Bhd,是一家马来西亚公司,从事具有测试功能的晶圆级芯片级封装(WLCSP)分选机的设计,开发和制造。该公司的产品包括WLCSP芯片分选机,晶圆对晶圆分选机和WLCSP后锯最终测试机。它向半导体行业提供产品。本公司还提供维修服务,技术支持和其他售后服务。

本人對半導體認識有限,所以無法對 MI TECHNOVATION 競爭和營運做一個深度分析。

但是它的財務數據還是可以讓我們了解它。

MI TECHNOVATION 財務如下:




用著名的ROE看,MI TECHNOVATION 是合格的。

加上高 Revenue 和 Net Income 成長,似乎是完美。

但仔細看 EPS ,成長率則少很多,特別和2017年對比卻是退步。

原因就在於 Diluted Weighted Average Shares,從365.57增加到748.07,稀釋了股東權益。

公司為了發展,通過供股融資是可以的,但是我對年年供股的股票都有點卻步,這對股東權益不是好事。

如果公司前景真的俱佳,對供股還可以忍受,MI TECHNOVATION 符合此條件嗎?

要看前景,就必須對公司營運環境和未來發展要有一個分析。

正如前述,我不了解半島體行業,但還是可以通過財務數據看出一點信號。

我們看 MI TECHNOVATION 的現金流量表,因為投資資本大,所以都是負自由現金流。

發展初期負自由現金流我可以接受,但我不能接受低於 Net Income 的 Operating Cash。

Operating Cash 不理想的高成長率,是不可信的。

這是我的看法。

这一套三本投资书胜过你看外面20本,因为外面的投资书是东说一点,西说一点,我是把精华整理归纳,以Step by Step方法铺陈,化繁為簡,全面講解投資分析法。

股票基本面分析的《股票真智慧》、技术面的《图表趋势秘密》和经济分析的《经济周期投资》。

詳細书內容可瀏覽:

https://ckfstock.blogspot.my/2018/02/adibooks-series.html






購買請mail: kongfaw.choo358@gmail.com

投资教学視頻(捐款用途)
https://ckfstock.blogspot.com/2019/11/blog-post_25.html

湯文亮:空置率看三條件:地點、地點和地點


文章日期:2020年6月26日

【明報專訊】昨日在早餐時見到一位愁眉深鎖的行家,不過沒有問他有什麼事,在這個時勢,物業投資者大多數愁眉深鎖,行家話大行一份空置率報告,累他被老闆照肺照了一個晚上。大行報告中指出,中環甲級寫字樓空置率大約5%,而他們公司的中環甲級寫字樓空置率超10%,老闆話佢工作不稱職,如果唔想辦法將空置率下降至5%以下,行家可能隨時被離職。

大行報告空置率5%僅平均數

行家問我們的中環甲級寫字樓空置率是多少,我沒有講真實說話,只是話大約5%。其實,我們在中環的甲級寫字樓全部租出,包括一個本來是行家租客,最近亦轉租我們的寫字樓。

我們並沒有以低價搶客,而是行家的寫字樓在低層,我們的在高層,有不少中環甲級寫字樓租客最近都由低層搬上高層;行家公司擁有的甲廈大多數是低層,空置率超過10%絕不出奇。嚴格來說,這不是行家的錯,而是行家公司的錯。

商廈愈高樓層空置率愈低

發表報告的大行以前有一位外籍董事話買樓三大原則,就是Location、Location、Location(地點) ,一向被視為投資物業的金科玉律。我講出來大家或者會不相信,原來寫物業報告亦要講Location、Location、Location ,三個Location的意思分別是優質地區、優質大廈、優質樓層,中環甲級寫字樓代表了兩個非常好的Location,第三個Location就是講樓層,當然是愈高愈好,而且愈高樓層的空置率愈低。

大行的報告指空置率5%,這只是一個平均數,高層空置率一定大幅低於低層。因此,就算空置率亦要講Location、Location、Location,即是要分高中低層來講,否則就不算是一份中肯、仔細和全面的報告。

紀惠集團行政總裁
[湯文亮 敢說反話]

譚新強:Don't fight the Fed, until......

文章日期:2020年6月26日

【明報專訊】華爾街有句被視為金科玉律的投資守則:「Don't fight the Fed」,意思是如果美國聯儲局決定「放水」,採取寬鬆貨幣政策,哪管經濟環境和企業盈利有多差,投資者都千萬不可逆勢而行,做空股市。

美國疫情嚴重,連第二浪和第一浪都根本分不清楚,真的是一波未平,一波又起,對經濟重開的步伐怎可能沒影響?再加上近日不停出現大規模的BLM示威遊行甚至暴亂,對實體經濟簡直是雪上加霜。

但從投資角度來說,自從聯儲局在3月底重啟QE,更表明是無限的,美股就開始了神奇的、愈來愈與現實脫節的股市大反彈!從3月的最低點至近日最高點,標指、道指和納指,分別升了44.5%、48.3%和47.7%,納指更創了歷史新高,真的有點匪夷所思!不只美股,連中國新經濟股都受惠,騰訊(0700)、網易(9999)、中芯(0981)、京東(9618)、美團(3690)、拼多多、Bilibili等齊創新高,阿里巴巴(9988)亦不遠矣!

聯儲3月底重啟QE 美股與現實脫節

我當然明白WFH大趨勢對Amazon、微軟、facebook和Alphabet等科技龍頭幫助很大,如虎添翼。最大的5家Big Tech,已佔了標指的20%。但其餘80%又如何?除了「印鈔」外,怎樣解釋波音、各航空、郵輪公司超過1倍的反彈?連已破了產的Hertz都反彈了5倍。

無限QE的另一個受害者,可說是Alex Kearns,是Robinhood無佣金交易平台的客人。他是個20歲無收入的學生,但Robinhood竟給他100萬美元的借貸額度。他似乎用來炒期權,有一天他發現戶口輸了70多萬美元,感到絕望,就選擇了自殺,非常可惜和愚蠢。近乎黑色幽默,更可悲的傳聞是他其實沒有輸掉那麼多錢,只是看不懂Robinhood的每天倉位報告而已!Robinhood的KYC和風控,當然有問題,但如果沒有無限QE,哪有可能100萬美元信貸會流到一個20歲學生手中?

標指能否如著名策略師Tom Lee預測,在初夏即將創新高,誰也不知道,只可拭目以待。巴菲特在股市底部沽清了所有航空股,反被總統特朗普譏笑。據一位美國資深family office投資者說,今次大反彈令最有經驗的對冲基金經理大跌眼鏡,幾乎沒有年過45歲的賺到錢(嘻嘻,不知道我那麼年青)!

我當然贊同Don't fight the Fed,但天生多慮,會加個until......:

1. 美國超過一半州份的疫情正在上升,每日宗數重上3萬以上。多個大州如加州和Florida都是熱點,Arizona和Texas等,醫院容量更將在未來數天爆滿!死亡滯後,在不久將來,每日死亡人數必將反彈。這就是反民主制度選出來的特朗普自私無能領導下的惡果,美國變成反科學、反事實、反理性,連口罩都變成政治部落圖騰!

美國經濟是否真的可以不管「死人冧樓」,繼續重開,實屬懷疑。但股市是否必將因此大跌?答案部分取決於疫情能否受控,和政策取向。

疫症宗數確在飈升,但近日感染者平均較年輕,且最少一部分人有戴口罩,即使受感染,接觸到的viral load較輕,所以死亡率應該較低。加上美國醫生多了經驗,終於明白過早使用ventilator,弊多於利。FDA終於禁用頗危險的HCQ,改用較有效的Dexamethasone和Remdesivir等藥。最重要的是投資者仍樂意相信最快在年底就將成功研究出有效疫苗,雖然不少專家仍有保留。即使成功,疫苗的有效率多高(可能只有50%至60%),有效期多長(可能只有3至6個月),價錢和如何大量生產數十億劑等問題,更加暫時沒人理會。

如果經濟重開萬一受阻,聯儲局又是否江郎「財」盡?當然不是,隨便都可數出尚未使出的三招:一、YCC(yield curve control),短期內將公布細節,估計類似日本央行的10年債零利率目標政策(QE也是日本發明),但可能焦點放在較短的5年期美國債。二、負利率,這一招歐洲較常用,聯儲局仍非常抗拒。三、直接購買股票ETF,甚至個股。聯儲局已開始直接買個別企債,離股票只一步之遙。日央行早已直接購入日股ETF。

2. BLM會否演變成一場美式文化大革命?近日示威變回大致和平,不少各州市警察甚至以「taking a knee」(單膝跪),為警暴作象徵式道歉,但當然無礙警察殺害黑人事件仍不斷發生。

大規模暴亂會否再現?絕對有可能,只等待適合的導火線。特朗普言行仍緊擁抱着輸了內戰的南部Lost Cause,近日警告企圖拉倒另一早期擁有黑奴和曾跟美洲原住民打仗的總統Andrew Jackson銅像的示威者,任何毀壞公眾紀念碑者,可被監禁10年,且講明執法絕不手軟!醜陋的事實是美國最早的10位總統,8位都曾擁有黑奴!如特朗普繼續煽動種族衝突,事情會否一發不可收拾,實在難講。假如他成功連任,但再次以大比數輸掉普選,BLM支持者會否願意再忍氣吞聲接受?上次白宮門前衝擊已非常危險,如下次再發生,民眾會否更暴力?而美國軍、警又將如何處理?如特朗普下令使用大量武力,甚至開槍,警察、國民自衛隊和正規軍隊的反應又如何?早前參謀長聯席會議主席General Milley的表態必令總統特朗普非常不安,且反常敢怒不敢言。

窮人餓不死卻不爽致動亂增

BLM運動主因不是「麵包」,但QE導致貧富懸殊加劇肯定是主因之一。QE救了富人,窮人餓不死但感覺不爽。這是個全球現象,所以近年那麼多社會動亂。但請留意,正因肚子不餓,與俄國沙皇末代,以及晚清末期時的民不聊生,有根本性的不同,所以革命動力仍不足夠。反而不少右翼種族主義政府,如美國、英國和巴西等,草菅少數族裔人命,處理疫情嚴重失當,面臨的政治壓力更大。巴西甚至有政變危機。

但派錢的財政政策仍有點用。美國政府已在討論下一輪刺激方案,但分歧頗大。民主黨的眾議院要求3萬億美元,共和黨的參議院只支持1萬億美元,白宮則要求2萬億美元,但另重提1萬億美元基建。不知道最後結果如何,但最緊急是再發放最少1000美元,和延長4000萬失業工人的救濟金。

3. 無限QE和UBI,證明Andrew Yang是對的,更非常受巿場歡迎,這是否神話中的免費午餐?

聯儲局的資產規模,在金融海嘯前只約7000億美元,經QE擴張至4.3萬億美元,然後稍為收縮至3.6萬億美元,但只重啟無限QE三個月,又再膨脹至空前的7萬億美元!財政更誇張,今年財赤將高達4萬億美元,超過GDP的20%!美國國債亦將升至約110%GDP。
低利率「好處」多 最重要增政府負債能力

傳統經濟理論提醒大家如此瘋狂的貨幣和財政政策的各種不良甚至災難性後果,包括超級通脹、息口飛升、經濟衰退、股債市崩潰和貨幣大幅貶值等等。但到現時為止,這些情况仍未出現。最根本和最重要的是利率不升反跌,當然是拜QE所賜。YCC是更直接的操控債市方法,據日本經驗,相對QE,可省80%彈藥。按低利率「好處」很多,最重要是增加政府負擔債能力,利息支出佔比更低。

利率低,股、債的fair value當然更高,所以毫無收入的Nikola,市值都可超過250億美元(可惜Nikola Tesla似乎沒有middle name,要不然最少值50億美元)。標指今年PE估計最少24倍,CAPE約29倍,只低於1999年科網泡沫爆破前水平。

亂印鈔,財政揮霍無度,不是應該帶來通脹?為什麼沒有?首先QE和YCC,直接按住本應自由反映增長和通脹預期的長債息口,或對實質增長和未來通脹有真實影響。除此之外,人口老化、經濟虛擬化、能源和天然資源需求減少,再生能源和電動車革命都是通縮的,所以現今大國的負債能力真的比以前高很多,加速印鈔只剛好平衡通縮壓力。

縱拜登當選 難改Fed put

4. 近日美股高位震盪,部分歸咎於近日民調顯示拜登擴闊了領先優勢,市場憂慮如他當選,將逆轉特朗普的企業減稅。高盛估計加稅或將削減標指明年盈利超過10%。如要逐漸回歸至收支平衡,加稅是必須的;但以加稅為競選口號,是極難贏出的。再者,即使拜登勝出,任何加稅方案都需要兩院通過。華爾街開始擔心一次「blue sweep」,但我認為參議院留在共和黨的機會仍較高。

再者,即使拜登當選,也不代表他將改變自格林斯潘年代至今,30多年來聯儲局提供給巿場,風險不對稱的Fed put。此政策對投資者超好,但形成道德風險,因此全球經常出現各種資產泡沫。

強美元需軍事互相支撐

5. QE、YCC、MMT和UBI等堂皇名詞,某程度上都只欺騙大家的掩眼法。種種手段的最重要支撐仍是全世界對美元的無比信心,這就是法國前總統Giscard d'Estaing所指的美元「exorbitant privilege」(高昂專權)!只要所有人有信心,美國就可隨意印鈔、政府可長期入不敷支,貿易長期逆差。美元霸權是接近絕對的,全球超過60%貨幣儲備是美元,全球外匯交易,超過90%其中一邊為美元!美元有何危機?

靜悄悄地,從3月至今,美元指數DXY貶值了5.2%。絕非崩潰,但會否繼續跌,難講,所以近日那麼多人對黃金和Bitcoin有興趣。美元又是靠什麼來做儲備的呢?千萬不要以為是黃金,只佔M1的8%,M2不到3%。理論上支持美元價值當然是整個美國的天然資源、社會體制和人才,包括大量領先全球的企業,最優秀的大學等。這些資產,需倚靠全世界最強大的軍事力量來保衛;但這龐大軍事力量,包括800個海外基地,亦需要每年近8000億美元國防開支,是後面9個國家的總和。這個排場不易維持,說白了,美元靠軍事支撐,而軍事又要靠美元來支持,有點循環論證的味道。

如要維持這局面,美國必須無限期維持GDP第一!極難想像世界第二大經濟,可繼續擁有這個高昂特權。

中美GDP年底將明顯拉近

我已多次指出今季是個歷史上最重要里程碑之一,中、美名義GDP將是前所未有的接近,是彎道超車的第一次碰撞。下半年如美國能繼續重開經濟(如重開不成功,後果不敢想像),還好一點,將重新拉開距離,到年底可能美國GDP約20萬億美元,中國約15萬億美元,差距仍有33%,但已比去年的50%以上收窄很多。長期交接的時間表亦將由7年以上拉近至估計只4至5年,即有可能在下屆美國總統任內發生。

當然重申一次,即使中國GDP超越美國,絕不代表人民幣、人均收入、科技、商業、軍事和宣傳上,都能同時超越美國。這將是一個漫長過程,且充滿危機。

這亦不等如美元馬上失去所有人信心,停止使用,或匯率暴跌。但這過程中,美元必逐漸失去它的高昂專權,聯儲局的QE和YCC等政策的自由度和有效性,將慢慢感到掣肘,可能導致Fed put的威力減弱。

所以Don't fight the Fed, until......

(中環資產持有騰訊、網易、中芯、京東、美團、拼多多、阿里、Bilibili、Amazon、Microsoft、facebook、Apple、Tesla的財務權益)
中環資產投資行政總裁
[譚新強 中環新譚]

Thursday, June 25, 2020

Acquisition of Wave Money a positive for Yoma Strategic Holdings, say analysts

Broker's Calls
Felicia Tan 25/06/2020, 3:19pm
SINGAPORE (June 25): Analysts are in favour of Yoma Strategic Holdings raising its effective stake in Digital Money Myanmar Limited (Wave Money).

The company announced on Wednesday that it will be acquiring Telenor Group’s 51% stake in Wave Money for US$76.5 million (S$106.4 million), and will raise funds from a consortium of investors led by Yoma Strategic.

See: Yoma Strategic to become largest controlling shareholder in Myanmar's Wave Money for total of $141.5 mil

DBS analysts Rachel Tan and Derek Tan have maintained their “buy” calls on the conglomerate, with a target price of 50 cents.

“While the next part of the journey may be rocky with increased competition, we believe Wave Money’s dominant position in Myanmar and the synergistic opportunities that both Yoma Strategic and Ant Financial can provide will give Wave Money a firm platform as it expands into a super app,” they write in a note dated June 24.

“We believe there will be synergies and cross business collaboration with Yoma Strategic’s current business, especially in fleet leasing, consumer (digital payments) and real estate services that could drive the digital wallet segment further. In addition, we believe there could be future synergistic opportunities as Ant Financial builds its e-commerce platform in Myanmar,” they add.

Phillip Capital analyst Tan Jie Hui feels the acquisition was made at an attractive price of US$76.5 million (S$106.4 million), which is a 20% discount to the brokerage’s projected valuation for Wave Money.

As such, she has maintained her “buy” call and target price of 46 cents.

“We increased the valuation of Yoma’s stake in Wave Money, offset by a 15% devaluation in Pun Hlaing Estate’s land bank due to the expectation of a weaker outlook in the premium property space. Property and financial services will constitute 68% and 19% of the valuation respectively,” she says.

Tan says the acquisition will have a positive impact on the conglomerate as it will give Wave Money a better strategic focus to grow its e-wallet business.

“Post Telenor’s exit, Wave will be more focused in its strategy to grow, underpinned by Ant’s strength in financial services and technology coupled with Yoma’s local presence and expertise,” she says.

Both brokerages agree that the unchanged key management team in Wave Money is also a plus.

As at 3.18pm, shares in Yoma Strategic Holdings were changing hands 2 cents higher, or 6.7% up, at 32 cents.

Wednesday, June 24, 2020

Analysts mixed on Mapletree Industrial Trust’s data centre acquisition in US

Broker's Calls
Felicia Tan 24/06/2020, 4:43pm

SINGAPORE (June 24): Analysts are mixed on their outlook for Mapletree Industrial Trust (MINT) following the REIT’s Wednesday announcement that it will be acquiring the remaining 60% interest in data centres in the US at a purchase consideration of US$210.9 million (S$299.5 million).

See: Mapletree Industrial Trust to acquire remaining 60% interest in 14 data centres in US for $299.5 mil

The deal will further expose MINT’s exposure to the more resilient data centre segment, which will enable MINT to future-proof its portfolio for a more digital economy. The acquisition also exposes MINT to the US, the world’s largest data centre market.

CGS-CIMB Research has downgraded the stock to “hold” from “add” with a revised target price of $2.81 from its previous $2.66, on valuations.

CGS-CIMB analysts Lock Mun Yee and Eing Kar Mei say they have raised MINT’s distribution per unit (DPU) estimates by 0.8-2.9% to factor in five months on contributions in FY21F, should the transaction be completed by the end of 3Q20. Lock and Eing have also taken into account MINT’s private placement, which will issue of 128.1 million new units.

See also: Mapletree Industrial Trust launches private placement to raise $350 mil to fund acquisition of data centres, and Mapletree Industrial Trust's private placement over-subscribed, to raise total of $410 mil

“While we like this accretive acquisition, MINT’s share price has appreciated by c.15% since end-Apr and the stock is currently trading at c.4.3% FY21F DPU yield, above its +1 s.d. 7-year yield band,” they write in a note dated June 23.

Maybank Kim Eng analyst Chua Su Tye believes the acquisition should strengthen MINT’s footprint in the US’s top 15 data centre markets.

“We continue to expect strong demand growth for data centre assets globally with rising operational needs,” he says in a Wednesday note.

“COVID-19 has likely accelerated the pace of cloud adoption from the increased usage of remote working, video streaming and online gaming, with higher data traffic needs bolstering leasing demand,” he adds.

As such, Chua has maintained his “buy” call with an unchanged target price of $2.95 for the stock.

“Valuations will continue to be supported by its positive growth fundamentals and more resilient portfolio, as DPU visibility has been further strengthened by its rising hi-tech asset investments and overseas diversification. These and $1.6-2.3 billion in debt headroom, could support other DPU-accretive deals,” he says.

Chua says the brokerage will revise estimates following the deal closure, which is expected to be completed by September this year.

As at 4.42pm, units in Mapletree Industrial Trust (MINT) are changing hands 11 cents higher, or 3.9% up, at $2.95.

Mapletree Industrial Trust to acquire remaining 60% interest in 14 data centres in US for $299.5 mil M&A

Felicia Tan 23/06/2020, 8:41am

SINGAPORE (June 23): The manager of Mapletree Industrial Trust (MINT) announced that it will be acquiring the remaining 60% interest in the 14 data centres in the US currently held by Mapletree Redwood Data Centre Trust (MRDCT) at a purchase consideration of US$210.9 million (S$299.5 million).

The agreement was signed by MINT’s trustee, DBS Trustee Limited on Tuesday.

The agreed property value of the data centres on a 60% basis is some US$494.0 million (S$701.5 million).

MINT currently holds a 40% interest in MRDCT with Mapletree DC Ventures, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Mapletree Investments Pte Ltd (MIPL) holding the remaining 60% interest.

Upon completion of the proposed acquisition, MINT will hold a 100% interest in the 14 data centres. Its assets under management will also increase to $6.6 billion from $5.9 billion as at March 31.

According to MINT, the proposed acquisition is in line with the manager’s strategy to grow the hi-tech buildings segment.

It is also expected to increase MINT’s data centres segment to 39.0% from 31.6% as at March 31, increasing the trust’s exposure to a resilient asset class with growth opportunities.

Data centres proved to be a resilient asset class during the Covid-19 pandemic, as it was considered essential in North America, and remained open when the country was in lockdown.

The hi-tech buildings segment will account for some 59.9%, from 55.0% as at March 31.

All 14 data centres are 97.4% leased to 15 tenants as at March 31. Tenants include Fortune Global 500 corporations, and companies listed on the NYSE and Nasdaq.

The MRDCT Portfolio has a weighted average lease to expiry of about 4.6 years, with about 20% of the leases expiring within the next three years. About 97.8% of the MRDCT Portfolio have annual rental escalations of 2% and above.

The 14 data centres are situated on freehold land that is strategically located in established data centre markets across the US. The centres come with a net lettable area (NLA) of some 2.3 million sq ft.

Following the completion of the proposed acquisition, MINT’s freehold properties will increase to 51.8% (by land area) from an estimate of 37.9% as at March 31.

The total acquisition outlay comes up to some US$218.0 million (S$309.6 million).

The manager of MINT says it intends to finance the total acquisition outlay through an equity fund raising and the issuance of the acquisition fee in units.

See: Mapletree Industrial Trust launches private placement to raise $350 mil to fund acquisition of data centres

The agreed property value of the MRDCT Portfolio of US$823.3 million (S$1.17 billion) represents a discount of 0.7% to the independent valuation by Newmark Knight Frank Valuation & Advisory, LLC and in line with the independent valuation by Cushman & Wakefield Western.

Both companies have valued the portfolio at US$828.7 million (S$1.18 billion) and US$823.3 million (S$1.17 billion) respectively.

“The Proposed Acquisition increases our exposure to the resilient data centre segment and deepens our presence in the United States,” says Tham Kuo Wei, CEO of the manager.

“The United States is the largest and most established data centre market in the world. It offers attractive growth prospects and is well supported by favourable supply-demand dynamics. The Proposed Acquisition will improve MIT’s income stability with the increased freehold land component and long leases with annual rental escalations,” he adds.

Units in Mapletree Industrial Trust closed flat at $2.84 on Monday.

These companies are beneficiaries of the Covid-19 pandemic

Broker's Calls
Samantha Chiew 23/06/2020, 4:09pm

SINGAPORE (June 23): CGS-CIMB Research is rating the medical equipment and services industry “overweight” amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

In a Monday report, lead analyst Ong Khang Chuen says, “As the world grapples with Covid-19, it faces a new normal until an effective and widely-available vaccine or treatment is developed, in our view. Even as nations emerge from Covid-19 lockdown, we believe there is still a need for more testing kits and personal protection equipment (PPE) to ensure a safe reopening.”

According to studies by the World Health Organization (WHO), people with coronavirus are most infectious at the point when they first begin to feel unwell, which has made it particularly challenging to control the spread of the disease.

Based on analysis of past pandemics and strategies used by countries to curb the spread of Covid-19, the analyst believes that the world will have to face a new normal until an effective and widely available vaccine or treatment for Covid-19 is developed, which he believes will be in 2021.

“We see potential for resurgence in Covid-19 cases, as countries adopt varying approaches to tackling the pandemic. Some countries that have eased lockdown measures and reopened their economies (such as China and South Korea) are seeing a renewed rise in the number of Covid-19 cases, prompting fears of a potential second wave,” Ong notes.

Although several countries are starting to emerge from lockdown, diagnostic testing and medical supplies remain high in demand. To ensure a safe reopening, there is a need for reliable data to show that the rate of infection is decreasing to manageable levels, and also to ensure that there is sufficient capacity to avoid future infection peaks overwhelming healthcare capacity.

In Singapore alone, Ong estimates the addressable market potential across the value chain of diagnostic testing to come up to $3.9 billion. Meanwhile, Malaysian Rubber Glove Manufacturers Association (MARGMA) estimates global demand for rubber gloves to reach 345 billion gloves in 2020, representing a 16% y-o-y increase.

With that, Ong sees UG Healthcare and Riverstone as direct proxies to the pandemic, while other beneficiaries include IHH Healthcare, Raffles Medical and Venture Corp.

UG Healthcare is a preferred pick with an “add” call and a target price of $1.36. UG Healthcare's undemanding valuation of 8.7 times 2021F price-to-earnings ratio and manufacturing-cum-distribution model allows it to garner stronger ASP upside potential compared to its peers given the current strong surge in glove demand.

Meanwhile, other Singapore listed companies within the value chain of medical testing and PPE include Biolidics, Q&M Dental, Medtecs and Sri Trang.

UOB Kay Hian initiates coverage on Frencken Group at 'buy' on stable earnings

Broker's Calls
Felicia Tan 24/06/2020, 3:41pm
SINGAPORE (June 24): UOB Kay Hian has initiated coverage on Frencken Group with a “buy” call and target price of $1.15.

In a Tuesday report, analyst Clement Ho says he likes the high-tech component manufacturer for its stable earnings due to its diverse revenue stream, despite the temporary pandemic-induced slowdown, which has affected manufacturing plants around the world.

Despite expected lower sales in 2020, Ho forecasts the company’s operating margin to normalise above 11%, compared to the sub-9% region between 2014 and 2017. The higher margin is due to cost-cutting measures and efficiency improvements.

The analyst also expects a slight revenue contraction of 6.4% due to the worsening dynamics in the automobile industry, in spite of the healthy demand growth from the semiconductor business.

“A resumption of orders in the company’s analytical and industrial automation subdivisions is expected to lift 2021-22 top-lines by 8.7% and 9.5%, respectively,” he says.

Ho also sees further opportunities for the group to grow on positive technology sector trends.

“As a component supplier and provider of modular parts for companies in industries such as analytical & life sciences, healthcare and industrial automation, the group will benefit from higher demand for parts as the technology trends evolve towards mass consumption,” he says.

Frencken’s supportive balance sheet with a net cash value of $92.9 million will help the company weather volatile conditions.

“Past the volatile period, we believe Frencken will emerge with a leaner cost structure, which translates into greater operating leverage as revenue normalises. Shareholders should be rewarded with a consistent dividend payout of >30% of net income, which Frencken has made since its listing in May 2005,” he shares.

“Assuming a 30% payout ratio, 2020-21F DPS of S$0.0275 and S$0.029 would translate to yields of 3.2% and 3.4% respectively. Frencken currently trades at 9.4x 2020F PE and 4x EV/EBITDA,” he adds.

As at 3.39pm, shares in Frencken are changing hands 1.5 cents lower, or 1.7% down, at 88.5 cents.

高成長高ROE就是好股嗎?說MTAG




Mtag Group Berhad (MTAG),今天我分析這支股票。

根據下面其業務介紹,它是從事印刷相關業務。

公司介紹如下,各位自行翻譯。

MTAG Group Berhad, an investment holding company, engages in the business of label and sticker printing, and customised converting services for various materials. The company was established in 1995 in Johor, Malaysia.

The subsidiaries of MTAG Group include Toyo Sho Industrial Products Sdn Bhd, Intag Industrial Supplies Sdn Bhd, and Intag Steel Hardware Sdn Bhd.

除了草創的公司未來難易預測外,成立超過一段年份的公司,好不好都必須以其財務數據為基礎。

MTAG 財務如下:




這裡,我用我的《阿弟投資系列》著作,來簡單看出這些數字的意思。

1)总收入出現不錯增長,每股盈利也如此,雖然2019年淨利潤出現下滑。

2)高ROE,总权益增長速度遠大於总收入。如此高ROE只有非常非常輕硬體資產的公司才可以做到。

高成長,高ROE,似乎構成一切要素,那是否值得投資?

按照我在《阿弟投資系列》說的選股法則,答案是這股表現並不完美。

它只能做二線考慮,不作為一線考慮。

原因如下:

雖然 MTAG 這幾年成長速度不錯,但不大可能維持。

我們看 MTAG 投资活动的现金,資本投資並不多,這意味未來成長空間也是有限

另外,它的净收入現金量並不充足,這點對比经营活动的现金就可以知道。
以上分析,是建立在財務數據的數量,不是質量分析所得。

財務分析若不能滿足條件,除非特別因素,我是不看質量的,因為質量會反應在數量上。

Author: 

Tuesday, June 23, 2020

蔡金強:做大事惜身 見小利忘義

文章日期:2020年6月22日

【明報專訊】中印邊境爆發50年來最大衝突,印方死20人(大部分是缺乏醫治而死),包括一名上校(非常高級,年頭死的伊朗二號人物蘇萊曼尼也就比他高一級),還有兩名少校被俘。這麼大一件事,香港的一些評論不是完全立場先行,逢中必反,就是無知鬼扯。

見到什麼國際關係專家和KOLs痛批中方說「印方去抗議,結果被中方六倍人數用狼牙棒伏擊……」,還有什麼「中方完全不夠打……」之類,相當白痴。你說在這種水平教授或者學者教出來的年輕人有何思考能力?首先,印方去抗議?這鬼話你敢說我都服你,有人深夜帶着百多號人帶齊家叉去對方國境抗議的嗎?你以為是旺角呀!第二,完全不夠打?別說1962年,就算這次,你知道死一個上校是啥級別嗎?連印度都吹捧成這樣,可見其自甘墮落。印度實力不可小看,畢竟人口和面積在那擺着,可往深想,卻是「做大事惜身,見小利忘義」。今天簡聊中印的一些死結和這次事件的前因後果:

中印四大死結:

(1)邊境領土糾紛,東中西三線達13萬平方公里。老印跟人相處思想相當特別,基本是「我的肯定是我的,你的我也有權分享」,要不沒完。中印三段領土糾紛很明顯印方都理虧,尤其是東部藏南(10萬平方公里)和中部達旺,藏南就是西藏的山南地區,西藏很多高僧都是這裏出生的。西段的阿克塞欽有點爭議。我看到有香港學者批評說Aksaichin連地名都是印度名,真是文盲,aksai意思是白石灘,chin是維文「秦,中國」。aksaichin是連接西藏和新疆必經之路。印度對這三塊領土的立場就是你中國1951年拿下了西藏,我分點還不行嗎?憑啥你全吞了。真是神經病,老印的邏輯是它後父——大英帝國以前印度管轄的都屬於他的,甚至緬甸,甚至西藏一大部分。這種歪理中國當然是不能接受,可老印也不能接受,印度的民族主義和宗教主義相當猖獗,政府誰敢動這個。

(2)中國巴基斯坦鐵盟。印巴是血仇,天敵,是不可調解的矛盾。可恰恰中國是巴基斯坦最鐵的盟友。那你說印度怎麼看中國?可巴基斯坦是中國在南亞,中亞和中東的抓手,中巴鐵盟是真愛。

(3)1962年的印度戰敗之恥。當時印度慘敗,死傷近萬人,一個准將被俘。這對老印自大而自卑的內心造成巨大的心理陰影,尤其是精英階層,這是印度立國以來最大戰敗,印度國父尼赫魯第二年鬱鬱而終。所以印度傳統精英恨極中國。覺得你吃雞,我吃個雞腿都被你打成這樣。這仇很難解!

(4)瑜亮情節。老印對中國近二三十年的成就羨慕嫉妒恨,覺得大家都是世界人口第一第二大國,憑啥你五大常任理事國之一,憑啥你世界工廠,憑啥美國認為你是對手……可我才是incredible呀!

本次衝突的前因後果:

前因一:趁你病,拿你命。莫迪上台後,身為極端民族主義份子,又認為中美爭端白熱化,印度有機可乘,可以漁人得利。印方判定中國的防護罩門在東南沿海和西北,西南會綏靖。印方從2017年開始單方面改變中印平衡和默契。一是容許達賴去印度很多地方公開活動,二是這次在中印之間沒有爭議的中方地區對峙。大家還記得2017年中的洞朗事件嗎?印方以中國在中國不丹邊界修路派人進入中國境內阻止中方修路。上次中國最後退讓,停止修路,印方才退兵。這次班公湖和加勒萬河谷衝突根本就是印方食過翻尋味,想單方改變實際控制線。可印方根本不明白,西線(阿克塞欽)才是中方命脈所在,事關一旦這地區被印方突進,西藏和新疆將變成兩個個體。阿克賽欽是新藏公路(G219線)的必經之地,從新疆入藏,只有阿克賽欽這一個通道。否則,就只能翻越昆侖山脈。所以,在西線中方不會有任何退讓。

前因二:邊界衝突轉移國內經濟社會壓力。莫迪2014年上台後,大家期待很高,覺得是印度鄧小平。莫迪確實各項能力很高,可野心太大,加上宗教理念很極端。慢慢,近三四年不靈了,他更是劍走偏鋒,近幾年,廢鈔,金融系統倒閉,後面又全面歧視排擠境內穆斯林,印度三年內的GDP增長從8%跌到去年的5%。今年又碰上新冠,印度佛系防疫,現在疫情高度爆發,確診接近40萬,世界第四,還在加速,印度現在復工只有40%。今年經濟分分鐘負增長。傳統來說,印度只要出了問題,幾乎不用懷疑會向宗教和民族轉移矛盾。宗教主要是針對穆斯林。邊境衝突當然是中國了,同期也在惡搞巴基斯坦和尼泊爾。

前因三:印度軍方㷫烚烚,冒進。小金人覺得這次最後搞成幾十人死亡,應該不是莫迪所為。莫迪是想鬥而不破,不停拿好處,不停擼羊毛。可這次軍方冒進,印度軍方對自己有「迷之自信」,曾說一個印度兵可以搞定三個中國兵……印度軍方極度親美(莫迪的人民黨親印度教,本土派;傳統的國大黨親英,建制派),這次,我估計是軍方想立大功,深夜偷襲中方營地想抓幾個俘虜,侮辱中方,又增加談判籌碼。沒想到中方早有準備,損失嚴重。大家看莫迪政府在事件後,反應比較平和,明顯理虧。軍方單方面行動也可能關美方事,邏輯大家自己想想。

後果一:衝突可控,雙方克制。這次造成20人死亡,出了中印雙方的預期。石頭木棍都死幾十人,中方肯定也有不少死傷,雙方氣歸氣,可知道真打起來後果如何。印度政府是裝傻不是真傻,印度肯定會增兵,可你怎麼打?西線不同於東線,東線是平原,西線是四五千米大山,中方完全控制山口,印方在山腳和半山,當然方便調兵,可問題是你想仰攻?再者,你如果攻上山,你的補給優勢就沒了。阿克塞欽距離印度大城市很近,包括新德里。中方一邊全是荒漠。所以,這件事後,印方可能聲勢很大,可莫迪應該會緊緊看住軍方,防止真出大事。而中方,肯定是不想繼續搞下去的。

後果二:經貿受損,中方吃虧。中印一年雙方貿易6000億美元左右,中方貿易順差3000多億美元,中國不少大廠在印度生意不小,如小米和oppo等。現在雙方出了大事,印方反華肯定很猖獗,這對中國的出口影響不小。這方面中方反制手段很少。

後果三:印度加速向美靠攏。中國幾乎九成的所謂問題,如中港,中台,中印,中澳……都是中美問題的一部分。事實上,美方肯定就是動員一切力量打擊中國,中國也沒什麼招,只能是兵來將擋水來土掩,這種情况下,多一個敵人少一個敵人分別也不大。何况現在美國最大的問題是他拉攏你打擊中國,他並無太大能力輸出龐大經濟效益,狗也是得有狗糧的。像印度,簡直堪稱人精,你敢叫它打下手,你先掂掂自己口袋。別最後被老印收割了。

印度幾千年歷史文化,西方人很難理解這麼長歷史的民族文化內涵。印度最出名的把戲如「吹笛眼鏡蛇」,「空中懸浮修行者」……都是極盡浮誇,可你知道就是一個把戲。當然演得還是很棒的。

中印邊界對峙這件事,將會像剝洋蔥一樣,剝呀剝,你以為很大,最後可能不了了之,都是行為藝術而已,別當真!

很多人批評這次中方下手太重,印方死了20人,不會善罷甘休。這是不公平的,第一,黑夜打鬥,你看得清嗎?群毆喔,扔石頭,你怎看得清。第二,印方很多都是受傷,擱在山上被凍死的;第三,中方也有傷亡。很多人不清楚印度人的性格,他們是典型的「欺善怕惡,得了便宜還賣乖」那種,絕對得寸進尺,沒完沒了。小金人以前不少同事都是印度人,其中兩個很高層,一開始,小金人打算跟他們搞好關係,結盟,最後發現對印度人根本沒「盟」這東西,兄弟就是用來犧牲的。反而,你公事公辦,極度較真,他反而不敢犧牲你利益。不少舊同事都吃過大虧。

奧陸資本總裁兼投資總監
[蔡金強 奧陸之聲]

Monday, June 22, 2020

JAKS: Cash Cow In The Making? - Bursa Dummy

Sunday, 21 June 2020

Readers who follow this blog long enough should know that I invested in Jaks before. I bought in Feb17 but sold all in Nov17.

I bought Jaks because of its Vietnam power plant venture. It is a 2 x 600MW coal fired thermal power plant in Hai Duong with a BOT of 25 years. Jaks owns 30% shares in the JV with CPECC of China, with an option to increase the shares to 40%.

At that time, I didn't know how to predict the profit to Jaks when the plants are ready and running. I just knew that Jaks will pocket 100% the USD454.5mil (~RM1.8 billion) EPC contract.

The reason I invested in Jaks back in 2017 was simply because of this EPCC. It started to register good profit from its construction of power plant in Vietnam. I predicted that such profit will continue to rise.

I was aware that Jaks was struggling a bit in its property development & investment arms but I didn't expect those issues to be dragged for so long.

Anyway I sold all the shares in Nov17 due to various reasons and rarely looked back at the stock.

Jak's share price swung wildly from RM1.80 to RM0.40 then went up to RM1.50, back to RM0.60 due to Covid-19 and around RM0.90 now after the announcement of rights issue.

A famous investor quickly became the largest shareholder and then exited completely, which contributed to the movement of the share price.

Now, the power plants are about to be ready in Q3 of 2020. Construction profit from Vietnam will stop but profit from sales of electricity to Vietnam government will start.

How much can Jaks profit from the sale of electricity?

I don't have any idea until I read the article posted by DK66 in i3investor.



**********************************************************************************
The most reliable earnings guidance from Vinh Tan 1 power plant

What makes the most reliable earnings forecast ?

Peer comparison is the most reliable and convincing method for making earnings forecast if the subject exhibits the following characteristics;
high degree of earnings stability and foreseeability
high degree of resemblance in operating terms and conditions

The higher the similarity between the subjects in comparison, the higher the accuracy of forecast.

Peer comparison evaluation method alleviates the need for making excessive adjustments, assumptions and projections which in most cases would cloud the integrity of the results derived. It is often derived from actual operation of businesses under terms and conditions which may not be well understood or considered by the evaluators of other methodologies. In other words, it is the most realistic forecast of earnings potential of a company operating under the same geographical roof.

Vinh Tan 1 Thermal Power Plant

It is located in Vietnam's southern province of Binh Thuan.

The coal-fired power plant includes two 620-MW super-critical generating units which is 55% owned by China Southern Power Grid, and constructed by CEEC. CEEC is the holding company of CPECC who is Jaks' partner in JHDP.

Vinh Tan achieved full commercial operation on 27th November 2018 (COD).

Why compare to Vinh Tan 1 ?

Hai Duong, Vinh Tan 1, and Mong Duong II are all 100% foreign owned power plants in Vietnam operating under 25 years BOT contracts with capacity around 1,200 MW. All their BOT contracts, power purchase agreements, coal supply agreements were signed around 2012.

Vinh Tan 1 is an extremely close model for Jaks Hai Duong power plant because;
Both were awarded by the Vietnam Government around 2011
Both BOT contracts were signed with the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT).
Both are Coal fired power plants costing around US$1.8b
Both around 1,200MW capacity
Both are 100% foreign owned and operated by Chinese corporations
Both are adopting chinese technology
Both under 25 years Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) scheme
Both are guaranteed by Vietnam Government
Both Power purchase agreements signed with EVN
Both coal supply agreements signed with Vinacomin
Both under USD1.4b bank financing
Both under max 18 years loan tenure allowed by Vietnam government

Therefore, Vinh Tan 1 and JHDP should exhibit extreme high resemblance, if not identical.

Extracted from the 2019 Annual Report of China Southern Power Grid Corporation

Profit attributable to minorities interest

Vinh Tan 1 = 越南永新一期电力有限公司




This is the first full year operation results of Vinh Tan 1 since commercial operation in November 2018

Net profit after tax for 2019 = RMB1,071m = RM652m (RM/RMB conversion rate of 1.64)

Hence, potential earnings attributable to Jaks

@30% = RM652m x 30% = RM196m = EPS RM0.30

@40% = RM652m x 40% = RM261m = EPS RM0.40



Free Cash Flow



Annual free cash flow = RMB1,609m = RM981m (RM/RMB conversion rate of 1.64)

Hence, potential free cash flow attributable to Jaks

@30% = RM981m x 30% = RM294m = RM0.45 per share

@40% = RM981m x 40% = RM392m = RM0.60 per share



Dividend Distribution



You may noticed that there was no distribution of dividend in 2019 despite healthy cash flow of RM981m. This is due to the need to build cash reserves requirements for bank installments, working capital, maintenance, coal inventory, and statutory reserves. Aggressive distribution policy is expected once the cash reserve requirements are met as evident in the case of Mong Duong II, another similar plant in Vietnam. Below is the distribution pattern of Mong duong II since commercial operation in April 2015. The amounts are converted to Malaysian Ringgit at 4.35 to USD.


Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total
2016 9m 74m 122m 205m
2017 109m 113m 222m
2018 117m 78m 195m
2019 122m 196m 13m 331m

2018 dividend distribution was affected by the restructuring of long term project borrowings to reduce future interest costs. This has resulted in a one time restructuring cost of USD31m.

Note that first major dividend distribution by Mong Duong II started after 15 months of operation. By the end of 2019, Vinh Tan 1 has 13 months of operation. Hence, Vinh Tan 1 is expected to start dividend distribution in 2020.

Reservations

Vinh tan 1 has only provided one full year operating results for evaluation in this article. There is no information to whether there were any material extraordinary gains of losses included in the operating results. Nevertheless, the nature of the business of Vinh Tan 1 whch is stable and foreseeable with majority of its earnings derived from capacity payments mitigated such concern. Moreover, my previous studies provides further assurance of the results of Vinh Tan 1.

Vinh Tan 1 classifies its power plant as concession asset instead of loan receivable as required by the new international accounting standard. Adoption of old accounting treatment has resulted in lower total earnings of Mong Duong II by USD203m since operation with its 2018 earnings increased by USD40m after adoption of new accounting standard. Since continuing with old accounting treatment does not lead to overstatement in earnings of Vinh Tan 1, the higher earnings effect to JHDP is disregarded in this article on prudent grounds.

Conclusions

Earnings guidance provided by Vinh Tan 1 is by far the most straight forward and reliable estimate of JHDP's future earnings potential. Most evaluation methods require assumptions or management guidance and complicated computations. It is difficult for those without sufficient knowledge of those methodologies to express confidence.

Vinh Tan 1's earnings represents results from actual operation of a similar power plant in Vietnam which is also managed by a Chinese corporation.

Vinh Tan 1's earnings jibes with my previous estimates derived using various valuation methods.

This article concludes that JHDP is expected to deliver EPS of between RM0.30 to RM0.40 to Jaks. At PE of 10 to 15 times, Jaks is worth between RM3 to RM6.

I hope this article has raised your level of confidence in Jaks significantly.

Thank you and happy investing !

DK66

**********************************************************************************

I think this is an excellent and insightful prediction on Jaks's potential profit from the power plant. With potential EPS of 30sen, it's RM3 if PE is 10x!

Not only this, the predicted free cash flow of close to RM300mil a year to Jaks is just superb. This is possible due to the high depreciation and amortization of the power plant.

Even if the profit contribution from Vietnam is only half at RM100mil a year, the potential EPS of 15sen is still good compared to current share price of around 90sen.





After being delayed due to Covid-19, it looks like the power plant is preparing to deliver its first electricity in July. Commercial generation is expected in September for the first unit, while the second unit is scheduled to run in January 2021.

Anyway, this is not a buy or sell recommendation on Jaks. Nothing is without risks. So, invest at own risk.

Posted by Bursa Dummy

http://bursadummy.blogspot.com/2020/06/jaks-cash-cow-in-making.html

Technology stock rally could be more powerful than pandemic play

Lai Ying Yi/theedgemarkets.com
June 22, 2020 09:00 am +08

KUALA LUMPUR (June 22): While many are impressed with the meteoric rise in glove makers’ share prices, there is also a rally in the technology sector that might be even more powerful and sustainable.

There is nothing that could stop the IT evolution, the deployment of 5G technologies is the way forward — it is exactly this belief that has attracted an influx of bargain hunters to the semiconductor-related stocks on Bursa Malaysia while others are shovelling money to the rubber glove counters.

The Bursa Technology Index having rebounded nearly 73% from 23.81 points to 41.15 points is evidence of the strong interest in the technology counters in the past three months.

UWC Bhd is among the star performers. Its share price has surged 235% from a low of RM1.10 in March to RM3.68 last Friday, followed by Aemulus Holdings Bhd, whose share price rocketed 231% from eight sen to 26.5 sen, and JHM Consolidation Bhd, which climbed 161% from 52.5 sen to RM1.37.

As Apple Inc on Wall Street hit a record high, so did some of the technology stocks on Bursa Malaysia. The list includes Greatech Technology Bhd, which soared 193% to RM4.05 from the low of RM1.41, while JF Technology Bhd has climbed some 114% to RM2.04 from 96 sen in mid-March.

Fund managers view that the stellar performance of technology stocks is justifiable, given the significance of the deployment of technologies in more devices that are seen to be developed in the age of Internet of Things (IoT). This will bode well for semiconductor-related players.


Asset management firm Areca Capital Sdn Bhd’s chief executive officer Danny Wong commented that “it doesn’t matter if the pandemic is here to stay or not, relevant technology stocks will only continue to see growth.”

He points out even before the health crisis unfolded, most Malaysian technology stocks were already being sought after as most of them were considered as growth stocks.

Wong explained that the prospect of automation upgrades in factories, especially the Industrial Revolution 4.0 and 5G development, has always been the tailwind to more usages for chips and sensors.

“In addition, the more tech savvy in development of commercial products ranging from automotive to healthcare devices have been a benign growth story to the technology companies.”

Meanwhile, Lim Tze Cheng, head of research at EquitiesTracker Holdings Bhd, highlights the acceleration in technology adoption against the backdrop of the Covid-19 crisis, as people adapts to the “new normal” working environment, where virtual meetings and cloud-based usages have increased at a never-before-seen fast pace.

“Post-lockdown, people will realise more of the importance of semiconductor especially for the relevance in powering 5G technology and data transmissions and this will be a global phenomenon,” said Lim, adding that the bullish sentiment on the US Nasdaq board has spilled over to Bursa Malaysia.

Meanwhile, Lim highlighted that resilient earnings performance has lent support to share prices as well.

As for the hard disk drive (HDD) makers, such as Dufu Technology Corp Bhd, which has gone up 149% from March’s low, JCY International Bhd, which rebounded 130%, and Notion VTec Bhd, up 126%, Lim points out that the increase in cloud-based storage is expected to drive up the demand for HDDs especially in data storage centres.

Over at JHM Consolidation (bounced 161%) and D&O Green Technologies Bhd (up 76%), as both companies cater more to the automotive industry, Lim noticed that better auto sales in China has painted a positive picture on their prospects. China, the world’s largest vehicle market, showed a second consecutive month of higher sales in May.

On JF Technology and Foundpac Group Bhd (rebounded 91%), which produces high-performance test sockets and equipment consumables relevant to 5G development, Lim believes that the main catalyst is the relaxation of the US government’s decisions to allow American companies to work with Huawei on setting standards for 5G networks.

Moving forward, Areca’s Wong believes there is still upside potential among some technology stocks, especially with those that have not reached their previous peaks as the semiconductor sector heads to its upcycle.

“I have always been positive on technology stocks, and more so now, I think they are more appealing due to the importance of one's daily life,” said Wong.

Sunday, June 21, 2020

【2019年封关】全年狂飙293% 阁代科技膺新股王



(吉隆坡31日讯)尽管今年马股乌云笼罩,但在新股上市方面仍创新高,主板与创业板共迎来15只新股,当中表现最优秀的非阁代科技(GREATEC,0208,创业板)莫属。阁代科技上市至今录得293.44%涨幅,荣获今年“新股王”的冠冕。

2019年全球经济充满变数,各大央行纷纷步入宽松周期,为潜在经济衰退预先做好准备,而本地也有知名公司如QSR品牌控股和Mr. DIY,选择展延上市计划。

值得注意的是,马股上半年饱受严峻市况冲击,仅有少数新股上市,但所幸上市意愿在下半年增加,新股陆续登场。

今年马股迎来4只主板和11只创业板新股,合计15只,创下自2014年来的新高。

若计上15只“杰出企业家加速平台”(LEAP)新股,今年马股实则有高达30只新股,胜于去年。

回顾2018年,进行IPO的共有22家公司,其中主板和创业板各有2只和9只,LEAP有11只。

根据《南洋商报》统计,若对比首次公开募股(IPO)的发售价,今年新股表现喜忧参半,截至年杪封关时,共有6只股以溢价收市,1只股持平。


其中,阁代科技股价走势最凌厉,从61仙的发售价,一路高歌猛进至2.40令吉,猛涨1.79令吉或293.44%,荣登新股王。

阁代科技是一家工业自动化解决方案供应商,在相关设备制造领域有多年丰富经验。

其中独资的阁代自动化设备(马)有限公司,曾荣获《南洋商报》2018年度金鹰奖卓越金鹰奖第一名。

科技股受宠

排名紧随在后的新股是UWC公司(UWC,5292,主板科技股),封关闭市价3.20令吉,比发售价82仙高290.24%,位居第二。

精密钣金制造商UWC公司是在7月10日,首宗交易以溢价1.10令吉闪亮登场马股。

除了在未来3年扩展产能和提升效率,该公司还有意朝向5G网络发展,追赶市场需求和趋势。

按领域来看,科技业的新股仍是今年市场的宠儿,太阳能光伏系统公司Solarvest(SLVEST,0215,创业板)及自动化机器生产方案供应商维毅集团(ISTONE,0209,创业板),封关时分别录得112.86%和53.13%溢价。

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8新秀跌破发售价达新控股4个月跌半

共有8只新股在今年封关时跌破发售价,其中,表现最惨淡的是8月初挂牌的达新控股(TASHIN,0211,创业板),跌幅达50.86%。

鸿达资源(PRESTAR,9873 ,主板工业股)是达新控股大股东,最早在2017年7月时,计划将子公司达新钢铁脱售给达新控股,借此分拆上市。

同时,表现第二差的新股,是母婴产品公司金兴裕(KHJB,0210,创业板),跌幅达36.05%。

金兴裕持有英国母婴品牌“Mothercare”大马独家代理权,但英国公司在11月时因破产而委任监管人配合重组;金兴裕当时派发定心丸,称重组不会影响公司业务,且仍保持获利。



Friday, June 19, 2020

譚新強:Lost Cause與Lost Empire 特朗普約翰遜站歷史錯誤一方

文章日期:2020年6月19日

【明報專訊】今天6月19日,美國稱為Juneteenth,是紀念黑奴在1865年終被全面解放的一天。這麼重要的紀念日,但竟然仍未列入全國法定假期。本來今天美國總統特朗普準備在Tulsa舉行疫情以來首場大型競選集會(白宮首席傳染病顧問Dr. Fauci反對無效),他對Juneteenth毫無認識,但被提醒後把集會改到明天。願意改期似乎是好事,但想清楚就知道未必是。如果集會主題之一是支持BLM,那麼在Juneteeth舉行非常適合,所以改期反而顯得此地無銀三百両。

近日在巨大政治壓力下,他簽署了所謂警察改革行政命令,將成立一個跟進警暴的資料庫,是否有效假以時日才知道。但他堅拒Defund(減少經費)警隊,重申Law and Order(法律與秩序)的重要性,反而建議增加維持治安預算案。其實我也非常同情警察的處境,當然警隊中也有個別種族主義者和慣性濫暴的「壞蘋果」,如犯了罪一視同仁,理當受罰。但相信大多數警察都是只想做好每天工作,然後每天安全回家的普通人。職責所在,他們必須執法維持治安,只有在迫不得已,才會使用武力。

不過,美國的情况特殊,暫且不討論社會和歷史背景,事實上黑人犯暴力罪行和坐牢比例都遠比白人高。黑人只佔美國人口13.4%,但囚犯人口中高達37%,比白人的32%還要高!黑人坐監的比例是白人的5倍,在某些州份,差距更高達10倍!

再加上民間實在擁有太多槍械,比例上超過一人一支,誇張地恐怖!美國警察平均每年殺死1100個懷疑罪犯,當然是不可接受的多,且毫不意外,約300個是黑人。但值得指出的是超過90%案件,疑犯是有攜帶武器(有否事後插贜是另一回事)。這些警察的殺人動機,有多少是出於種族主義?有多少是出於恐懼對方攜帶槍械?相信在大多數案件中,極難把兩個因素分開,找出真正答案。

黑人相對收入1978年至今毫無寸進

如要解決種族歧視問題,其實亦要同時解決槍械,和更重要的貧窮、社會及家庭問題。1960年代的civil rights movement(人權運動)有助提升黑人權益和收入,到了1978年,黑人平均收入升至白人的59%,但可惜就此停頓下來,至今毫無寸進。黑人平均財產更僅約1萬美元,比白人少九成!大部分黑人出生於單親家庭,爸爸不負責任,媽媽需同時兼顧工作家庭,結果經常兩樣都做得不好,不少都需靠社會福利來過日子。貧民區教育水平不夠好,學生競爭力相對較弱,更難改善生活,結果一代又一代被困於這個貧窮惡夢循環。

今次BLM運動非常認真,最少將持續至11月大選,甚至更長,亦將對今次總統和國會選舉有頗大影響。近日特朗普被Fox新聞的女黑人主播Harris Faulkner訪問,驚人地竟說他對黑人權益的貢獻比任何總統都要大,甚至超過林肯!連支持他的Faulkner都不禁要插一句「But we are free!」但特朗普變本加厲,說「you know」(即眾所周知),林肯的「功過」,是個有很多不同看法的問題!這說法與白種人優先甚至3K黨人無異,簡直是對黑人和林肯的最大侮辱!亦完全顯露特朗普的病態自大狂嚴重程度!

怎可能連林肯的功過都質疑?其實這是一套故意誤導歷史的醜陋邪惡歪論(似曾相識),The Lost Cause的基本腔調。美國內戰在1865年完結後,南部經歷一段十多年的「Reconstruction」重建年代,由北方打勝仗的Republicans掌權(林肯是第一任共和黨總統),不少黑人亦被提拔為各州官員。南部白人對這些北方「Carpetbaggers」,到富庶南部撈油水的北方人極度反感(也似曾相識),尤其認為北軍General Sherman火燒Atlanta太過霸道,所以輸了仗仍一直不服氣。

到了大概1877年,北方人開始退出南部,南部的白人優先主義開始死灰復燃。他們逐漸在南部各州通過了一系列Jim Crow Laws,重建歧視黑人的種族隔離政策,包括不准通婚,分隔教育、交通、餐廳,甚至公共廁所都要分開,一直維持至1960年代,才被人權運動所推翻。

白人優先主義者美化蓄奴史

同時他們開始編織一個羅曼蒂克的美麗謊言,解釋南北內戰的主因並非真的為了正義,為解放黑奴。「真正」原因是人口較多,但較貧窮的北部,妒忌內戰前「Antebellum」年代,屬全世界最富庶的美國南部(請看電影《亂世佳人》Gone with the Wind),所以「人多蝦人少」的「無恥」手段,欺壓搶掠代表正義和「chivalry」(維護女士尊嚴的騎士精神)的南部。他們更歪曲憲法,堅持「state rights」,每個州份應有獨立自主權,包括奴隸政策,甚至脫離聯邦(更似曾相識?)。

這些Lost Cause鼓吹者更虛偽地解釋他們善待黑奴,幾乎把他們當作家人。更無恥的說法是把這些黑人從原始非洲帶到文明的美國簡直是善舉,黑人應該感激他們這些白人主人才對(亦有點似曾相識)。這個說法當然是卑鄙無恥,黑人男女小孩,在非洲如動物般被捕捉,妻離子散,只在運送途中已犧牲三成以上無辜生命。到了美國後,世世代代為奴為婢,被人隨意虐待、勞役、販賣、強姦,甚至謀殺!

當然有些主人對部分黑奴的待遇會稍為好些,主要分為House slaves(家奴)和Field slaves(田奴)。「乖一點」,斯文一點,可能樣貌娟好一點的就留在屋內工作,粗魯一點,身形健碩的就當然留在田中幹活。

早在1852年,白人女作家Harriet Beecher Stowe已出版《Uncle Tom's Cabin》,描述黑奴的慘况,是推動解放黑奴的最重要著作。書中主角Uncle Tom本來是個逆來順受的家奴,但仍是個有骨氣的人,最後因不願意供出兩個出走黑奴的資料,而被毒打至死。書內亦有其他矮化黑人女性「mammy」和黑人小孩「pickaninny」的名詞。Quaker Oats剛宣布將把老牌Aunt Jemima班㦸粉改名,正因形象取材於「mammy」。約翰遜更曾以「pickaninny」形容歡迎他的黑人學童!

Uncle Tom現象比斯德哥爾摩症候群麻煩

本來Uncle Tom是個正面人物,但到了後來,廣泛被黑人認為過於懦弱,奉承白人的不良示範,所以已演變成一個極具侮辱性的名稱。近年的一個經典演繹可說是Tarantino翻拍《黑殺令》(Django Unchained)電影中,Samuel Jackson飾演的Stephen Warren家奴角色,不止護主,更歧視同胞(似曾相識)。Uncle Tom現象在今天仍存在,特朗普也有少數黑人支持者,自稱保守有良好職業,且受過所謂高等教育,但歧視住在貧民窟的同胞,幫助主流社會欺壓他們。有心理學家認為Uncle Tom現象跟斯德哥爾摩症候群相似但更麻煩,因為受壓迫的時間遠比綁架長,超過百年,傷害更深。

近日The Lost Cause又成為熱門話題,因為BLM的冒起,同時近年的所謂民粹主義,包含不少種族主義,結果是愈來愈多類似2017年在Charlottesville因紀念內戰南部將領銅像而引起的衝突。現在BLM支持者要求拆除所有這類歌頌南部Lost Cause的銅像和紀念碑,Virginia已決定這樣做,但有些其他南部州份仍未決定。BLM支持者亦要求把十個以南方叛軍將領命名的軍事基地改名,國防部已答應考慮,但特朗普竟仍選擇站在歷史錯誤的那一邊,拒絕考慮改名。再說一次,把軍隊政治化是一件極危險的事,參謀長聯席會議主席General Milley和國防部長Esper都已先後承認當日陪同特朗普走到白宮附近的St. John's教堂拍照是個錯誤,暗示被利用了。更離奇的是特朗普竟沒有發tweet破口大罵,不敢?

大家可能有個錯覺,以為美國南部人士尤其種族主義者,一直都是支持共和黨的,但事實非也。林肯是共和黨人,所以南方人怎可能支持共和黨,事實是大部分南方人,從內戰後一直支持歷史更長、贊成state rights的民主黨。內戰後,共和黨控制了美國政壇約70年,直至羅斯福在1933年上台,採取左傾Keynesian政策救經濟,民主黨才開始得到工人階層和黑人支持,但南方白人仍無法背叛祖宗,仍支持民主黨;等至1980年列根參選,共和黨才吸引到他們的支持,因為價值觀較接近,民主黨反而被認為已變質成為只幫黑人的政黨。

根治美種族歧視 須修憲兼改革選舉

如何根治美國種族歧視是個大難題。解鈴還須繫鈴人,必須從修憲開始。千萬不要誤會歷史跟現代政治和社會沒有關係,從美國立國之初,參議院設計和選舉人票制度,都是北方州份跟經濟倚賴黑奴的南方州份妥協下的畸胎,賦予黑奴多,白人少州份超比例話語權,今天這些州份就是特朗普的鐵粉票倉。如不能修憲或利用Interstate Pact之類手法彌補缺陷,將極難選出合人口比例的黑人代表,通過全民保健計劃,和其他保障黑人權益的法案。如不改變選舉制度,即使特朗普不能連任,也難保未來不再選出另一個種族主義者,再次嚴重損害美國的偉大基礎和制度。

BLM運動已傳到世界各地,尤其美國黑奴制度發源地──英國。BLM更已演變為反帝國主義,連邱吉爾的銅像亦被塗鴉!約翰遜亦是個懷緬The Lost Empire的保皇黨,崇拜邱吉爾,曾寫過一本低質傳記。諷刺之處當然是他本人是被大英帝國打敗的奧斯曼帝國貴族後裔。

BLM演變為反帝國主義 邱吉爾亦遭殃

如英國人需要為黑奴制度懺悔,他們更應為在亞洲製造的傷害道歉和贖罪。英國人在18世紀初到達印度時,估計印度GDP佔全球23%,20世紀中離開時,跌至只約4%!1943年二戰邱吉爾當首相時,在Bengal曾因自私分配糧餉,只集中供應給英國軍隊和支持戰事的工廠,而導致300萬平民死亡的大饑荒。著名經濟學家Utsa Patnaik估計英國從印度盜取了驚人價值45萬億美元的財富。印度政客兼作家Shashi Tharoor,多次要求英國道歉和為200年的殖民時代作賠償,象徵式一年一鎊,和交還英女皇皇冠上的Koh-i-Noor鑽石!Tharoor曾說,英國之所以被稱為「日不落帝國」,是因為連上帝都不相信入黑後的英國大賊!

違法販賣鴉片和兩次不義鴉片戰爭為中國和香港帶來的傷害,至今我們仍然感覺到。最明顯亦是非常重要的例子,就是我去年討論過,香港居留權跟國籍的罕有混淆情况。(綠卡人士可在美國投票嗎?)

香港被英國搶掠回來,用作販賣鴉片的三不管entrepot(自由港)。說得好聽是華洋匯聚,難聽一點就是三教九流、龍蛇混雜。最高話事人是一班英國「毒梟」,其他的蘇格蘭銀行家、Parsi和Armenian商人等,都有一定影響力,但所有人都只是過客,目的只有一個,就是賺快錢。到了1997年,雖然香港回歸祖國,但奇怪地《基本法》仍容許各方過客,只要住滿7年(外傭除外),不論國籍,就有投票權!這即等如讓外國人保留特權,僱用外籍法官更當然有點喪權辱國的感覺。

港應禁雙重國籍者有投票權

如要改善香港政治和社會環境,弄清楚國籍和居留權的區別是首要任務。我再次建議非中國籍人士,包括擁有香港特區護照,但同時擁有BNO、美、加、澳等國護照,但不承認為中國籍人士者,仁慈點可保留居留權,甚至可享用各種福利,但絕不應有投票權!自由、簡單、明確、合情合理,亦符合中國法律精神(不准雙重國籍)和國際標準。

中環資產投資行政總裁
[譚新強 中環新譚]

Tuesday, June 16, 2020

CCM expects rising demand for other chemical products to cushin caustic soda margin squeeze

Muhammed Ahmad Hamdan/theedgemarkets.com
June 15, 2020 21:50 pm +08

CCM group managing director Nik Fazila Nik Mohamed Shihabuddin (pix) said some 40% of the group's business involves caustic soda — a highly versatile substance used in a variety of manufacturing processes — which prices have been impacted by the global economic slowdown. (Photo by: Mohd Suhaimi Mohamed Yusof/theedgemarkets)

KUALA LUMPUR (June 15): Chemical Company of Malaysia Bhd (CCM) sees rising demand for some chemical products amid the Covid-19 pandemic but the group cautions that it continues to face margin compression as prices of its core contributor, caustic soda, remain weak.

CCM group managing director Nik Fazila Nik Mohamed Shihabuddin (pix) said, some 40% of the group's business involves caustic soda — a highly versatile substance used in a variety of manufacturing processes — which prices have been impacted by the global economic slowdown.

"Definitely the lower prices will squeeze our margin further. Caustic soda is correlated to commodity prices. Any slowdown in the economy, which correlates to caustic soda prices, will dampen our earnings. But that is solely on the pricing side," she said in a virtual media briefing.

"However, we are expanding our capacity for caustic soda production to cater to the high demand in the country. In Malaysia, the demand for caustic soda products is more than existing supply. In essence, the demand outstrips supply. Our capacity expansion will help offset the margin compression to some extent," she explained.

In November last year, CCM announced that it had awarded Sime Darby Bhd a RM27.9 million contract to construct a co-generation plant to power the former's Pasir Gudang Works 1 (PGW1) in Pasir Gudang, Johor.

This will help expand the group's chlor-alkali production capacity by 50%.

It was reported that CCM will resume supply of caustic soda to Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) when the latter resumes operations towards the end of 2020, following a disruption due to a fire at Petronas' Refinery and Petrochemical Integrated Development (Rapid) site in April 2019.

"Even with the expanded capacity at our PGW1 plant, it will not be enough to cater for Petronas' Rapid. That's how big the demand for the product is in Malaysia," said Nik Fazila.

For the full financial year ended Dec 31, 2019, CCM said the average selling prices of its products compressed up to 28% compared with the corresponding period in 2018, negating the impact of higher sales volume for the year.

CCM's net profit declined by 65% to RM2.18 million for the first quarter ended March 31, 2020 (1QFY20) from RM6.25 million a year earlier. Quarterly revenue dropped slightly to RM96.6 million from RM96.9 million. The decline, however, was cushioned by a 14.9% increase in revenue by the polymer division.

Nik Fazila said CCM's polymer division has benefitted from the Covid-19 pandemic driven by the rising demand for personal protective equipment including gloves. This, she said, is expected to last beyond the easing of restrictions in Malaysia and globally.

In 1QFY20, CCM's polymer division saw an increase of 15% in revenue to RM27.4 million from RM23.8 million compared with the similar period in 2019 due to a surge in demand from the glove industry amidst heightened hygiene concerns over the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic.

"For polymers, we supply locally and regionally. Malaysia supplies about 70% of rubber gloves globally, so basically our business also has the same ratio. About 60-odd per cent of our supply goes to Malaysian glove makers and the remainder to other glove-making countries such as Indonesia, Thailand and China," she said.

Earlier, CCM said it was expanding the capacity for Kleeners — a cleaning solution for ceramic formers supplied to glove manufacturers. The group expects its facility in Bangi, Selangor to double output from 9,000 to 18,000 tonnes per annum when it is fully commissioned in 1QFY21.

Monday, June 15, 2020

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SKP Resources - Orders Picking Up

SKPRES has resumed to 100% operational workforce since May to clear order backlogs and meet new orders as its key customer increases order forecast to pre-Covid 19 levels, and even asked for the company to operate on Sundays. The group’s pipeline is fully occupied with new household products coupled with steady demand for existing products. Even with the lockdown, there is strong demand for household products from online sales. With the in-house PCBA line qualified and running, we expect margins to recover in FY21 as the group will be self-sufficient then. Maintain FY21E earnings and OUTPERFORM call with an unchanged Target Price of RM1.56.

Expect a turnaround in FY21. We are pricing in a soft 4QFY20 owing to the movement control order (MCO) in Malaysia which had the electronic manufacturing services (EMS) players on full lock-down. SKP was working with approximately 10% workforce during MCO to cater for the food and beverage segment. With the restrictions lifted, we believe that FY21 will see a significant recovery as the group has resumed to 100% operational workforce since May to meet order backlogs. On top of that, order forecast from key customer have resumed to pre-Covid 19 levels. To cope with the increased orders, the group is even considering operating on Sundays.

New products in the pipeline. At present, the group’s pipeline is fully occupied with a slew of exciting household and hygiene products. One of the products that was recently launched last week boasts the same efficiency as its predecessor but at half the weight, which allows for better maneuvering and portability. This item will start selling in China and gradually be made available in other countries in South East Asia (SEA). For existing products, the group is still experiencing strong demand from the SEA region and the western market. This was possible thanks to strong online sales even during the lock-down period.

Margin improvement from PCBA line. We expect to see margin improvement in FY21 as the group’s PCBA line is expected to be well optimised for the production of the new variant household product. In the last few months, the group has also been qualified by its key customer to supply PCBA for a few other products that are currently in the group’s portfolio. We are positive on the group’s effort to be self-sufficient on PCBA, as it will better equip the group for more potential contracts given the key customer’s emphasis for its contract manufacturers to be vertically integrated.

Maintain FY21E NP but trim FY20E NP by 7% to RM89.5m as we factor in lower output for 4Q due to the MCO.

Maintain OUTPERFORM with an unchanged Target Price of RM1.56 based on an unchanged FY21 PER of 14.0x (in line with its 5-year mean).

Risks to our call include: (i) less aggressive expansion from its key customer which translates to lower-than-expected orders, (ii) higher-thanexpect start-up costs, (iii) higher-than-expected input costs, and (iv) single customer concentration risk.

Source: Kenanga Research - 15 Jun 2020

湯文亮:移民與換女朋友一

文章日期:2020年6月15日

【明報專訊】有朋友較早前高調移民,甚至連樓都賣咗,大唱「知己一聲Bye Bye遠去這都市」,但近日垂頭喪氣,唔使講都知道移民不成,朋友話真係唔知點解,以他自己的學歷,工作經驗,社會地位,絕對想唔到不能夠移民。

很多打算移民的人都犯了一個錯誤,就是在移民官面前猛說香港不是,政府官員不是,中央政府不是,又鬧國安法。

他們以為這樣說可以得多一些分數,其實剛剛相反,我認識不少曾經做過移民官的外國人,他們最憎恨申請人猛說自己居住的地方不是,不但不能夠加分,反而會減分,移民官明白,申請人今日可以講自己居住的地方不是,他日一樣可以講移民到的地方不是,至於國安法,雖然有很多國家表示關注,但是那些國家一樣有國安法,甚至可能比香港將要出台的嚴厲得多,討好移民官可能適得其反。
移民官面前說港不是 反失分

近日有不少人香港人打算移民,其他國家有見及此,都提高了移民尺度,一定要有一些變化才可以成功移民。其實,移民與撇女都是一樣,有人或者以為我講錯,應該是溝女不是撇女,老實說,溝女很容易,撇女難得多,有不少人在撇女時都會講到前度衰一衰,以顯示他們的優越感,他們這樣講其實是最笨,因為當新女朋友知道就會考慮到他日如果分手,也會同樣畀人唱到衰一衰,所以,成功率減低很多,或者搵唔到質素好的女朋友,正確做法就是撇完女之後對新女朋友說,是自己不適合前度而非前度不適合他,更加唔好講前度壞話,女仔多數有同情心,移民官也是一樣。
最緊要話唔介意從低做起

在見移民官的時候應該話自己不適合香港,而非香港不適合自己,移民的目的是搵一個比較平靜,競爭沒有那麼激烈的地方,最緊要話唔介意從低做起,甚至移民去一些比較偏僻的城市也可以,我敢擔保,在同樣的條件下,這個方法的成功率會高很多。不過,一般移民的人不會認低威,離開是因為香港對不起他們,不是他們的錯,不過,能夠成功移民亦未必是好事,被迫留在香港可能有更好發展,結果是沒有人知道。

紀惠集團行政總裁
[湯文亮 敢說反話]

Sunday, June 14, 2020

5 Reasons to Choose Sunlight Light Bulbs – SeniorLED


Sunlight light bulbs also known as full spectrum light bulbs are specially designed LED bulbs that emit light relative to visible section of solar spectrum. They produce small amounts of ultra violet and infrared rays to imitate a sunlight spectrum precisely. Sunlight light bulbs resemble well balanced natural sunlight with similar a wavelength spectrum and, unlike traditional bulbs, bring advantages of natural sunlight for humans.

According to recent studies, the Color Rendering Index of sunlight light bulbs is more than 80, which is considered good for reflecting colors naturally. Natural sunlight CRI is 100, which is used as a standard of comparison for other light sources. We have already stated a lot of reasons why you should think about embracing natural sunlight bulbs but we have more lined up for you.

Here are the 5 reasons why you should choose natural sunlight bulbs over traditional LED bulbs:
Sunlight light bulbs balance circadian rhythm

Traditional LED lighting is known for unbalancing circadian cycle. The major reason being the huge quantity of blue light emitted by them. Unlike traditional LED products, natural sunlight bulbs use low blue light technology which keeps the circadian cycle in perfect order and also checks sleep disorders such as insomnia and sleep deprivation. No wonder natural sunlight bulbs are a popular choice amongst business owners and corporates.


Natural sunlight bulbs checks Seasonal Affective Disorder

Studies have found that people suffering from seasonal affective disorder become less depressed when exposed to high intensity natural sunlight. Sunlight bulbs reproduce artificial lighting which imitates natural sunlight and exposure to sunlight bulbs makes us more energetic & active. That said, not all natural sunlight bulbs in the market promise this advantage. So, make sure you pick the right bulb!
Sunlight bulbs boost productivity

Studies conducted by American Society of Interior Design found that 68% of employees complain about their office lighting. Multiple researches involving office workers have shown that office workers who were exposed to low blue light performed 10-20% more than their correspondents. Natural sunlight bulbs are also being used in hospitals, offices, and schools to improve mood, energy, alertness and overall productivity.


Natural sunlight bulbs enhance cognitive function

Performing cognitive tasks such as learning, remembering, and problem solving under natural sunlight bulb lighting reduces eyestrain, headaches & stress. Natural sunlight activates different sections of the brains responsible for cognitive and behavioral functions. Manufacturers of natural sunlight bulbs like SeniorLED are also gaining recognition in the lighting market for focusing on lighting innovation.
Sunlight bulbs promote mood stability

It is a widely accepted fact that exposure to sunlight makes a person more happy and cheerful. According to renowned behavior experts, people report more happiness on sunny days than gloomy ones. High intensity artificial light of natural sunlight bulbs have extremely positive effects on an individual’s thinking and mood. Especially designed mood light bulbs – also based on low blue light technology – are solely being used to enhance mood functions.
Natural sunlight bulbs – Bring home innovation

Internationally renowned LED manufacturers have been developing health and wellbeing related LED lighting products by using low blue light technology. SeniorLED is one such LED brand, focused on developing high quality and innovative natural sunlight bulbs and lighting solutions for households, corporate offices, and public spaces.


By focusing on R&D, quality control, and innovation, we have become globally renowned for health and well-being lighting solutions. Drop an email to info@seniorled.com or call at (+86) 139 6488 0018 to get in touch with our SeniorLED team for sunlight bulb related queries.

Connect to get bulk supply or worldwide distributorship of natural sunlight bulbs, mood lights, circadian light and low blue light bulbs.

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