Booking.com

Booking.com

Favorite Links

Thursday, April 30, 2020

Scientific Self-Care: How to Feel Happy, Grounded, and Grateful

Published on: Apr 17, 2020 by Liz Joyce 2360 views No Comments

Many of us are looking for new ways to feel grounded and happy as we continue to navigate the big changes of working, learning, and teaching remotely. To bring some science to self-care, we partnered with Dacher Keltner and Emiliana Simon-Thomas from UC Berkeley’s Greater Good Science Center for a talk on The Science of Happiness, a course on the groundbreaking science of positive psychology taken by over half a million students worldwide.

Keep reading to learn more or watch the video below for the full talk from our Facebook live event, which ends with a guided mindful breathing exercise.

The “CPR” of Happiness

While media and popular culture often portray happiness as a constant, being perpetually cheerful, in reality, positive emotions are not the whole story. In fact, chasing a constant state of gratification and enjoyment results in less happiness.

Keltner and Simon-Thomas shared that we can instead distill happiness into three main categories that we have the power to manage: connections, positively, and resilience—the “CPR of happiness.”
  • Connections: Our social connections, the quality of our relationships with others, our sense of belonging, and our tendency towards generosity.
  • Positivity: The ability to experience positive states when things are going well; savoring life’s pleasures and moments of glory.
  • Resilience: Acknowledging that life is going to have setbacks, managing those difficult states in a healthy way, understanding why they’re there, and moving forward.
Good for Your Body, Relationships, and Work

“We’ve taught the science of happiness to almost every imaginable audience—government officials, tech leaders, Buddhist monks, lawyers, federal judges, a lot of work with medical doctors,” Keltner said.

“When we got out of the lab and started to teach these people who really are changing the world and on the front lines of making a better society, we grappled with the question: why does this science really matter? Why should we integrate happiness into the workplace, a hospital, a classroom? I used to doubt that myself, but we now have an empirical answer to that question.”

Science has proven that happiness can result in benefits for your body, relationships, and even the quality of your work:
  • Good for your body: Happiness CPR practices are good for your body—for your life expectancy, immune system, cardiovascular system, respiratory system, sleep, and so on.
  • Good for your relationships: Happiness practices can help in romantic partnerships, relationships with kids, and with friendships.
  • Good for your work: Happiness makes you better in your ability to handle stress, your rigor of thinking, and your creativity, improving the quality of your work.
How Can You Achieve Happiness? 3 Steps

We know what happiness can look like and how much happiness can impact our life, but how can we achieve it? Keltner and Simon-Thomas offer three steps to more sustained happiness:
  • Knowledge: Know where happiness comes from (some of which we’ve covered above, but what the Science of Happiness class is all about!).
  • Buy-in: Set the intention to foster and strengthen your happiness.
  • Practice! Happiness takes effort in all categories of CPR. Learn the little habits of how you think and act day in and day out, notice how you think and feel, and compare to what we know will be associated with greater happiness. Then, engage in activities, exercises, and practices that shift habits of mind, feelings, and priorities.
“It’s about changing something about how we live our lives every day in order to leverage the science to benefit our lives and, thankfully, since connection is a big piece of it, by becoming happier ourselves we have a viral influence on the happiness of others,” Simon-Thomas said.

Useful Beliefs by, RJ Hixson

Feature Article
Click here for best viewing



For almost a decade now I’ve been co-teaching workshops alongside Van. I’ve witnessed many traders who came into a workshop with a belief or strategy that had been holding them back. Most of the time, they had little if any awareness of it until a workshop exercise caused an eye-opening revelation or paradigm shift. Then they were able to leave the workshop with a new understanding about themselves. Those transformations are fulfilling and inspiring — to the other participants in the workshops as well as the instructors. Those transformations are also why we hear that Van’s material not only enhances trading but also improves life in general.

I’d like to illustrate some examples of useful questions you might ask yourself even if you have no intention to ever attend a Peak 101 workshop. Many people are unable to attend a workshop and part of this newsletter’s purpose is to act as an inbox mentor for our readers.

I’ll describe some of the specific experiential exercises from Van’s foundation course “Peak 101”. As you read, you can compare your beliefs with ones Van teaches and you can ask yourself some questions relating to your life and trading. No, it’s not the same as being in a workshop but it’s useful material in a newsletter that you can use to work on yourself.

Mental State Control

Have you ever traded when you were angry? When you were scared? When you were bored? If you haven’t done any of those, you haven’t traded very much yet. Trading from a mental state of anger, fear, or boredom — or other non-useful emotional states, happens for less-experienced traders and these conditions invite mistakes — conditions where you don’t follow your rules. More often than not, you lose money when you don’t follow your rules. So what do you do? You change your mental state. But how do you do that?

One way to change your mental state would be to finish trading for the day and come back tomorrow morning. While probably pretty effective, that may not be very useful. As a trader, you want methods with effectiveness — and speed. Of the almost two dozen ways we teach to manage your mental state, one surprisingly simple technique is to pay attention to your breath. It can be as effortless as closing your eyes and consciously breathing in slowly and breathing out slowly for a minute or two. Notice what you are feeling right now, close your eyes and pay attention to breathing slowly, and check how you are feeling after a minute or two. What tends to surprise workshop participants is just how simple and easy mental state management can become once you are familiar with a few good techniques.

Useful Belief — When I am aware of a mental state that is not useful for a task, I can change it.

Question — If you notice yourself in a mental state unconducive to trading well, what could you do to change your mental state? Make a few notes and keep that handy for quick reference by your trading screens for the next time it happens.

Dominant or Overwhelming Feelings

Do you know anyone with a feeling or emotion that seems to rule their life? Do you have such a feeling or emotion? Trying to trade effectively with this can be challenging if not outright self-sabotage. If it’s not you, consider someone who is continually anxious, angry, fearful, or sad and imagine how that emotion could cloud their ability to perceive price action, make good decisions (like entries & exits), and react well to adversity in the markets. Rather than trading with clarity, decisiveness, and focus, they would experience any number of other emotions through the process of trading.

In Peak 101, Van details the evolution of feeling release techniques he has learned about, used, and discarded over the last twenty-five years. The method he teaches now is quite effective and fast. I have seen participants release feelings in a matter of minutes that have been just an irritant or which have been a dominating life factor for many years. This process is always inspiring and uplifting.

Useful Belief — Even if an emotion seems to dominate my life, there are ways to release it.

Questions — Do you notice if you have a dominating feeling in your life? If so, what is it and what effects does it have? What useful information might there be in that emotion? Could you acknowledge and even welcome the emotion — if not for a long period, just for a short period?

Internal Conflicts

Have you ever thought or said something to the effect, “On one hand, I . . . while on the other hand, I . . .”? Has that kind of thinking ever affected your trading? If so (and it’s likely so), you have an experience of some internal conflict — which is entirely human. Different parts of you want different things and when two parts see something differently — as they often do — you wind up in conflict. Most typically, your logical mind or “captain” takes control and makes a decision to resolve the situation. If over time, however, one of the parts is consistently denied expression or is minimized, that part will act through your subconscious to gain expression. That shows up when you do something you don’t understand and causes you to ask “Now why did I do that?” There are different ways to handle these situations but Van has found the most effective and helpful way is to negotiate with the parts. After people learn about some of their parts and the resolution process, many are very surprised how easily they can find a solution they had not considered which can satisfy the parts and allow them to go forward — without conflict in that area again.

Useful Belief — Internal conflicts are resolvable – even if they have existed for a long time.

Questions — Where do you experience internal conflict? What competing motivations or intentions do you experience with these conflicts? If you were to get creative, what could you do that would address the differing motivations and still solve the conflict.

Conclusion

Working at the Van Tharp Institute and seeing the personal transformations that traders make at our workshops never ceases to amaze me. I graduated from Van’s Super Trader Program and had these experiences myself so working with others on their transformations allows me to share my learnings. I also get to watch colleagues like Gabriel, Ken, Chuck, Kirk, and Kim who have applied Tharp Think in their trading pass on many valuable lessons through their own teaching.

I just wanted to share a few perspectives of someone who teaches in this interactive environment and to express my gratitude to the people who have come to VTI for a workshop. You not only receive lifelong, positive, impacts on your life but you also contribute to your fellow students and your teachers.

Even if you cannot join a workshop, you can still work to understand some of these concepts and improve your awareness of your internal thoughts and feelings that are impacting your trading results. These are solvable issues and awareness is the first step.

I wish you much success.

Wednesday, April 29, 2020

Hit by margin squeeze, Lotte Chemical Titan sinks into the red in 1Q

Lai Ying Yi/theedgemarkets.com
April 29, 2020 16:04 pm +08



KUALA LUMPUR (April 29): Lotte Chemical Titan Holdings Bhd (LCT) sank into the red in the first quarter of this year, hit by margin squeeze and an increase in write-down of inventories.

The country's largest integrated producer of olefins and polyolefins registered a net loss of RM170.06 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2020 (1QFY20), compared with a net profit of RM55.83 million a year ago, its stock exchange filing today showed.

Revenue slumped 32.63% to RM1.46 billion from RM2.17 billion, due to a lower average selling price and lower sales volume because of weakened demand due to various levels of coronavirus-driven lockdowns in the region since January.

Apart from that, sales volume was also affected by lower production due to a major statutory plant turnaround conducted in March, which caused average utilisation rate for 1QFY20 to fall to 66% versus 87% in 1QFY19.

“The operation of some of the main customers were affected due to the distinctive [movement restrictive] measures introduced in the regions to allow only essential businesses to operate.

“Apart from the virus outbreak, reduction in production quantity resulting from the major statutory turnaround conducted has also contributed to the decrease in sales volume,” LCT said.

Besides that, the group's profitability was affected by an increase in write-down of inventories to net realisable value to RM81.4 million, withholding tax from the disposal of Lotte Chemical Titan Nusantara's shares by Chemical Brothers Ltd by RM19.8 million, and share of associates losses by RM21.7 million.

On prospects, LCT said the downside economic risks are now more prevalent due to heightened global concerns on the severity of impact of the Covid-19 pandemic to the global economy.

“This situation also applies to our group as the petrochemical industry correlates with and is heavily dependent on the overall consumption patterns that drive the global economic growth.

It also noted the intense volatility in global crude oil prices following the price war between two major OPEC producers, namely Russia and Saudi Arabia.

On average, it said Brent crude prices saw a steep decline, resulting in enormous price fluctuation for its feedstock costs that correlate with the global crude oil price movement.

“The overall situation is expected to remain fluid for now as nations worldwide are putting in place respective responses to contain the Covid-19 pandemic and introducing monetary as well as fiscal stimulus packages to support the economy and prevent a catastrophic recession.”

“Nonetheless, the company is monitoring the market situation closely and will optimise its operations to adapt to the fast-changing and volatile business environment,” it added.

Separately, it updated that Bursa Securities has granted it another six months until July 23 to comply with the public shareholding spread requirement. Its public shareholding spread now stands at 23.97%, which is below the minimum 25% required.

At 3.36pm, shares in LCT traded 4% or 6 sen higher at RM1.55, valuing it at RM3.61 billion. The stock is down over 55% from a year ago.

Unisem reports third straight quarterly loss amid lower sales volume

Arjuna Chandran Shankar/theedgemarkets.com
April 29, 2020 18:31 pm +08

KUALA LUMPUR (April 29): Unisem (M) Bhd continues to be loss making in the first quarter of this year, no thanks to lower revenue, higher interest expenses, and as tax provisions more than tripled.

It posted a net loss of RM2.82 million for the three months ended March 31, 2020 (1QFY20), compared to a net profit of RM6.05 million in the corresponding quarter last year, as revenue declined 10% to RM273.35 million from RM303.13 million, the group's stock exchange filing today showed.

This is the third consecutive quarterly loss for the group, which sank into the red in 3QFY19.

The semiconductor assembly and testing services company said the decline in revenue was attributable to lower sales volume recorded at its PT Unisem plant in Indonesia due to its planned closure on March 31, 2020, compared to full production a year prior. In addition, the Movement Control Order (MCO) in Malaysia had also resulted in lower production volume at its Ipoh plant during the quarter.

Also impacting the group's profitability was the 40% increase in interest expense to RM1.56 million from RM1.11 million and the 275.6% jump in taxation to RM3.99 million from RM1.06 million.

On prospects, the group said the various lockdowns implemented globally to contain the spread of COVID-19 have deeply impacted global economic activities and consumer behaviour.

“At Unisem, the management has implemented measures to control costs, capex and streamlined its operations to mitigate the adverse consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. The directors expect the operating environment of the group for 2020 to be challenging,” it said.

Separately, it also said it has until June 30 to comply with the public shareholding spread requirement.

As at March 31, its public shareholding spread stood at 15.412%, 9.588% short of the 25% threshold. The group added it is still working on a plan with its largest single shareholder, Huatian Technology (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd, to address this shortfall.

Shares in Unisem closed 3.21% or six sen higher at RM1.93 today, giving it a market value of RM1.42 billion. It saw some 110,700 shares traded.

CIMB Group Holdings Berhad - Near-Term Weaknesses

Expected weakness in loans growth, challenging asset quality and further margin compressions will weigh on near-tern earnings growth of the Group. In its quarterly meet-up with the buy- and sell-side fund managers and analysts, management highlighted potential strains which will cloud outlook in the interim, though also appearing relatively sanguine on its overall prospects otherwise. Of some interest is its exposure to an oil-trading name in the news recently, which will likely necessitate a full-provision for the exposure. We are cutting FY20/21/22 estimates by 10.9%/13.9%/16.1% respectively to take an even more conservative stance on asset quality, while also factoring further cuts in the Overnight Policy Rate and lower loans growth assumption. We still see positives in its long-term prospects, though near-tem weaknesses will pose challenges. Our call is downgraded to Neutral owing to the lack of catalysts, with dividend-discount target price also lowered to RM3.70 (RM4.80 previously) in line with the earnings cut.
  • Asset quality is a prime concern, particularly with economic weaknesses (ie. recessions) anticipated globally as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. What has exacerbated conditions is the sharp drop in crude oil prices which has resulted in the corresponding collapse of certain companies. While the Group’s exposure to the oil and gas sector as a whole is a manageable 2+% of its total loans outstanding, specific cases related to oil trading could see the Group making RM500m in additional provisions at best, or just under RM1bn at worst. Loan loss coverage on the sector is at about 80%.
Direct exposure to vulnerable sectors (hospitality, aviation, retail and gaming) is at about 5.4% of total loans outstanding, and being monitored closely. Management has also indicated a further 12 sectors which are related, all of which make up a cumulative 21% of its total loans outstanding.
  • Loans growth is still expected to be expansionary, though likely to be in the low-single digit range. As expected, expansion has slowed sharply particularly in Malaysia with the Movement Control Order now into its 7th week. Pick-ups are anticipated 3Q/4Q on the back of its pipelines in the Malaysian mortgage and hire purchase segments. While holding steady currently, Indonesia on the other hand, is expected to weaken in the months ahead and contract for the year.
  • Margins are expected to slip at the upper range of its full-year 10bps compression guidance predominantly due to the cumulative 1% cut (0.5% already, 0.5% anticipated) in Malaysian OPR this year, though partly mitigated by significantly lesser deposit competition.
Source: PublicInvest Research - 29 Apr 2020

What type of business will survive Covid-19? - investbullbear

Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Wed, 29 Apr 2020, 2:12 PM
Dr Michael SW Lee

Dr Michael SW Lee is

Associate Professor of Marketing  in the University of Auckland Business School.
IDEASROOM
What type of business will survive Covid-19?

The University of Auckland's Mike Lee analyses the impact of Covid-19 on different types of business, and how they will fare in future pandemic-related crises A global economic recession is now inevitable.
Yet, as demonstrated in the past, not all businesses are impacted in the same way by the same recession. For instance, the luxury brand market recovered more quickly than mass appeal brands following the Global Financial Crisis and has sustained constant growth since 2010

While fundamentally different, Covid-19 is still no exception. Many of us have already experienced, first-hand, the increase in demand for hand sanitisers, fever medication, face masks and, in some countries, toilet paper. Logically, the former three industries should do well in a recession brought about by Covid-19, or any other future pandemic. Other sectors such as tourism, hospitality, and mass gatherings are more likely to suffer. Unfortunately, some companies will become bankrupt owing to a downturn in demand, combined with government protocols (rightly) prioritising health before wealth.
In this article, I will analyse the similarities and differences of businesses that will dive, survive or thrive during the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as future pandemic-related crises.

The two key factors I have used to categorise businesses into three Covid-19 outcomes (Dive, Survive, Thrive) are:

1) Synchronicity and 2) Location dependence.

Figure 1 (below) illustrates how most businesses may be mapped out on these two criteria, and how that might be detrimental or beneficial for any given business during this, and future crises brought about by human to human contagion.

Notably, businesses hardest hit by Covid-19 are those in the bottom left quadrant. These businesses are location dependent and rely on synchronous timing between customer and provider. For example, traditional tour operators, cruise ships, dine-in restaurants, concerts and sporting events. In all these cases, customers and providers need to be in the same place (location dependent) at the same time (synchronous service). In the climate of Covid-19, or any other future pandemic, such business models will always suffer. 

Paradoxically, such synchronous location dependent businesses require the most complex levels of coordination and scheduling, which means they are also highly inconvenient, in that all stakeholders need to be at the same place at the same time. It wasn’t that long ago that TV broadcasting was a location dependent synchronous activity. People had to be home by their TV set and wait for the news or favourite TV show to be broadcasted at a specific time. Note how (even without a global pandemic) this model was quickly displaced by asynchronous (on-demand) location independent (mobile, laptops, etc.) businesses such as Netflix. 

Figure 1:

Certainly the regular work week, Monday to Friday, 9am-5pm (and the consequent traffic jams many of us endure twice a day), was implemented to ensure most workers could be at the same place at the same time to accomplish joint projects, and also to ensure customers that they could reach our businesses at an assured time and place. 

This time and place was then elongated and expanded to make business interactions more accessible (24/7, in every corner of the globe) mainly for the convenience of the customer, but more recently for the convenience of Covid-19. Thus, it should come as no surprise businesses that rely the most on physical and temporal availability are those hardest hit by a virus that also relies on physical and temporal proximity. Covid-19 has essentially built its success on the success of our globalised economy. 

Ironically, while the virus has evolved very well to adapt to our system of international trade and commercial capitalism, many synchronous location dependent business models have not evolved much in the last 200 years, since the industrial revolution. Perhaps one silver lining in the corona cloud is that all modern businesses will be forced to question their practices in terms of synchronicity and location dependence. What is the real role of time and place for our business? 

Indeed, the next class of businesses that should be able to survive Covid-19 are those that are location-based, but able to operate asynchronously (such as self-service stations, or independent domestic nature tourism); or businesses that may rely on synchronous service but independent of location (for example, online counselling and restaurants built around delivery).

For the former (asynchronous location-dependent businesses), the place of business (the where) is important but the when is flexible, thus enabling a spreading out of physical proximity. For the latter (synchronous location independent businesses) shared timing, or the when, is critical but the location (the where) is flexible, once again, enabling a spreading out of physical proximity. 

From a commercial point of view, these businesses would be more desirable, with or without a pandemic, since both offer convenience and flexibility in either timing or location. Later, I will discuss strategies to help businesses evolve from synchronous location dependence to a slightly more flexible position, and then eventually evolve into the most flexible business model: asynchronous location independence.

These businesses, the final class and set to thrive during Covid-19, have already mastered the art of allowing the customer when and where to do business. Netflix, Amazon, Uber Eats, Fortnite, are all examples of businesses thriving before Covid-19; and now may be on track to do even better as governments, health authorities, and employers call for social distancing and self-isolation. 

Case example: Tertiary education

As a marketing professor I have noticed, over the past two decades, universities coming to terms with an audience increasingly comfortable with, nay, expectant of, asynchronous location independent service and product offerings. Even before Covid-19, our main stakeholders (students) have come to expect online lecture recordings. These are part of several changes helping universities evolve from heavily synchronous location dependent institutions to more flexible and inclusive asynchronous location independent businesses. 

Undoubtedly, during the adoption of such technological changes, many faculty staff would have complained about the watering down of the tertiary educational experience and lamented about the emerging class of graduates who can no longer be bothered ‘turning up’. Yet, if anything, Covid-19 is forcing us to confront the importance of ‘turning up’. If our off-campus students are now expected to achieve similar results via asynchronous location-independent models of pedagogy, surely many ‘real-world’ businesses should also be able to thrive, or at the very least survive, the next 18 months, and beyond?

Questions to shift your business from Dive to Survive to Thrive:

1. Critically analyse the when and where of your business operations.
a) How important is synchronicity or temporal proximity to your business? Really?
b) How important is physical proximity? Do you really need to be in the same place as your key stakeholders to deliver the same outcomes? 

2. Can you achieve the same outcome if time and place were not considered a fixed entity?
3. What aspects of your operations could evolve to become less reliant on temporal proximity?
4. What aspects of your operations could evolve to be less reliant on physical proximity?
5. Pick the path of least resistance to become more asynchronous or less location dependent, if achieving both is too challenging.




The luxury brand market recovered more quickly than mass appeal brands following the Global Financial Crisis. Photo: Lynn Grieveson

Ihttps://www.newsroom.co.nz/ideasroom/2020/03/21/1092476/how-business-will-survive-covid-19?fbclid=IwAR3bPhMqQvW0BNUXhalX8YUv8JA68y1LrSAc283azUSRA2Fi8InfoWOYF3I

Posted by investbullbear at 13:58

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2020/04/what-type-of-business-will-survive.html

股惊泄35%崩跌空间华尔街空头示警:经济大萧条来临

2020年4月29日

华尔街空头警告,美股还有35%修正空间。(美联社)

(纽约29日综合电)2019冠状病毒病疫情持续冲击全球经济,与2008年金融危机所造成的经济衰退相比,可说是有过之无不及,对此,被视为华尔街大空头的Rosenberg Research经济学家大卫罗森堡(David Rosenberg)表示,美国经济将各州、各产业轮流重启,标普500指数第二季度将跌至1800点低水位,2021年全年平均水位将落在2200点。

根据据marketwatch报道,大卫罗森堡认为,2008年金融危机后,美国经济不愠不火,被比作一次“大萧条”,但现在的情况比10年前更糟,投资人需要为即将到来、更大的“大萧条”做好准备。以最糟情况来看,今年第二季度标普将跌至1800点,近三周标普500指数落在2800点区间震荡,也就是说在未来3个月还有35%的修正空间。

大卫罗森堡的预测模型来看,美国第二季度实际GDP萎缩30%,消费者价格将连续5个季度负成长,今年底为止失业率将攀升至14.2%,2021年全年失业率为13%。

美国10年期公债殖利率也一路直坠,每个季度下滑,直至今年第四季度下滑至31个基点,2021年均殖利率为18个基点,资金将涌入高受益债券,直至今年底将比美国公债高出700个基点。

虽然外界视大卫罗森堡为美股大空头,但从白宫经济顾问奇云哈瑟(Kevin Hassett)预测,美国失业率将落在16~17%,第二季度GDP甚至会落在-20~-30%区间,创下美国经济最惨表现,这次大卫罗森堡所提出数据可说是乐观许多。

大卫罗森堡预测美股将在第二季度触底,标普跌至2000点,随后反弹,2021年该指数平均来到2600点,也就是说,估值比标普500指数现在水位在低10%左右,未来标普更有可能下跌30%,并在未来18个月缓升。

大卫罗森堡也预测一个最佳状态:在冠病疫情于未来6到12个月出现疫苗活得控制后,美国未来2年失业率将落在9%,标普500指数并在第二季度在2500点触底。

新闻来源:marketwatch、中时电子报

终极方案创富保富(下篇)/冷眼

2020年4月28日




以目前的股市和股价,没有人会知道是否已触底,或是距离谷底还有多远,但有一点是肯定的,许多好股价值已被低估,以目前的价格买进,只要选择正确,又长期持有,不难获利,至于能赚多少,就胥视有关企业未来的业绩表现而定,作为局外人的散户,谁也没法预测。

那么,从基本面的角度,又如何知道是否值得买进呢?

最简单的选股准则是:

①有关公司过去5年(10年更佳)的盈利是否稳定?

②前景如何?如果受到瘟疫的打击,盈利下跌,有无复原的能力?

③周息率是否高过银行定存利率?目前周息率比定存利率高一倍的股票,比比皆是。

④本益比合理吗?(要跟增长率挂勾,本益比10倍以下的股票俯拾即是)

⑤现金流是否属正面?(避免陷困)。

更重要的是现在买股,一定要作中、长期投资,因为今年绝大多数上市公司的盈利都将大跌,或是大亏,投资者买进时就要作好心理准备,如能在今年下半年或明年业绩出炉,血流成河时才以奇低的价格买进,当然更理想;问题是股市总是比业绩先行6个月(甚至更长),届时股价可能反而逆流而上,你未必能如愿。

那么,该怎么办?

年龄投资法

这就要看你的投资目标是什么,每个人的处境不同,你的投资必须跟你的处境配合,才较易成功。一个可行的方法,是按年龄来作出决定:

①假如你现在还在工作,你有稳定的收入,那么应该选购成长股,以加速你的财富增长率,早日达到财务自由。

你的投资应采取“成长导向”法,也就是以攻为守,你可以买“计算中的风险”,把重点放在前瞻性的股票,如科技股。

如果你在中、青年时太过保守,投资组合的年均复合增长率(CAGR)太低,你在退休时可能无法达到“财务自由”之境。

②如果你是退休人士,需要稳定的收入来度晚年——不要依赖儿女赡养,那么应采取“收入导向”的政策,以守为攻购买高息股,稳扎稳打。

在过去10年股市兴旺时,好股的周息率只有2-3%,比银行定期存款利率更低,不值得长者投资,如今周息率比银行定存高一倍的股票,俯拾即是,正是长者建立高息组合的良机,错过了实在可惜。

无论是采取“成长导向”或“收入导向”的投资策略,都一定要符合以下两个原则:

①所投资的企业一定要有成长,只是“成长导向”组合应买成长较高(可能没股息)而“收入导向”组合宜买成长较低的股票,而且因为盈利若下跌,股价将日走下坡,股息收入抵消不了股价下跌的损失,导致财富的摧毁。

如果股价下跌后你不敢加码买进,千万不要购买。

资金分配法

以上是以年龄为分水岭的投资法,另一种策略是资金的分配法,我建议中、青年投资者把80%的资金购买成长股,20%的资金购买高息股,目的是加速投资组合的年均复合增长率(CAGR).

长者(退休者)则将80%的资金购买高息股,20%的资金购买成长股(没股息亦可),目的是拥有稳定的收入,使长者可以过高素质的晚年生活,但又不失去资本增值的机会。

无论是采用那种投资策略,都一定要符合我倡导的“终极方案”。

所谓“方案”,是指“有组织的行动计划”。

这个“终极方案”是我总结了50年的股市实战经验而拟就的。

方案分为两个部分:

第一个部分是创富部,最重要的元素是“成长”,有成长(指盈利的增长)才能创富,能创富才能创造价值,能创造价值,股价才能上升,股价能上升,投资者的财富才能与日俱增,最后达到“财务自由”之境。

故这部分的指导原则是“成长为主,价值为辅”。

第二部分是保富,这个部分是要保护第一部分所创的财富,使不会流失。投资者的财富不会增加,是因为赚了又亏,摧毁财富,投资者要致富,首先要懂得“保富”,巴菲特所说的“投资第一法则是不亏本,第二法则是不忘第一法则”,其实就是指“保富”,故“保富”的重要性,不在创富之下。

以上是“决战股市终极方案”的要点,旨在通过积分法克服人性弱点,找出股价的上升潜能。

不知此书何时可以面世,因为不知管控令何时解除。

我希望我已回答了这名读者的电邮。

Huge chunky oil & gas allowances ahead for CIMB, says HLIB Research

theedgemarkets.com/theedgemarkets.com
April 29, 2020 08:45 am +08

KUALA LUMPUR (April 29): Hong Leong Investment Bank Research (HLIB) had maintained its “Buy” rating on CIMB Group Holdings Bhd at RM3.41 with a lower target price of RM4.45 (from RM4.70) and said during a briefing yesterday, CIMB management’s tone was cautious and little FY20 guidance was given, amid Covid-19 uncertainties.

In a note today, HLIB said the most painful update was there will be huge chunky oil & gas allowances ahead.

“Hence, we cut our FY20/21 profit forecasts by 19%/4%.

“While the flurry of bad news from its oil & gas exposure does not help sentiment, we would rather see the elephant in the room being addressed this year followed by a sharp V-shape recovery in FY21.

“We still like CIMB for its inexpensive valuations (trading >-2SD P/B and below global financial crisis level). Retain Buy but with a lower GGM-TP of RM4.45 (from RM4.70), based on 0.72x FY21 P/B,” it said.

The research house said CIMB looks to maintain its payout ratio at 40-50% but may reverse its earlier plan to lower the electable portion of its dividend reinvestment scheme to conserve cash and capital.

Tuesday, April 28, 2020

首季减持产托和种植股 公积金局加码银行汽车

2020年4月25日
报道:林嘉珉

公积金局是本地多家银行的大股东,在过去很长时间内持有银行股股权,所以平均持股成本不高。

(吉隆坡25日讯)产托领域不再是雇员公积金局(EPF)的最爱了,今年首季,该局偏爱增持银行、消费和电信股,还成了新增投资在一些汽车股。

去年末季时,公积金局主要增持电信与消费领域股项,并减持种植股。

该局在官网公布去年末季和今年首季的30大持股名单,马建屋(MBSB,1171,主板金融股)依旧蝉联榜首,持股比重维持在64.48%不变。

在截至今年3月底的最新30大持股榜单中,银行及种植股仍占最大份额,分别拿下7个和4个席位。

相比去年末季,公积金局在今年首季共增持榜单中的22家公司。

这包括6只银行股,分别是兴业银行(RHBBANK,1066,主板金融股)、大众银行(PBBANK,1295,主板金融股)、联昌国际(CIMB,1023,主板金融股)、安联银行(ABMB,2488,主板金融股)、马银行(MAYBANK,1155,主板金融股)和BIMB控股(BIMB,5258,主板金融股)。

当中,公积金局首季增持股权最多的是大众银行,共买入2.69%股权至15.51%,挤入前十门槛,排在第九名;增持幅度最少的是BIMB控股,只增持0.53%股权至12.98%,排名则下滑至第27名。

增持云升最多

而22家增持公司中该局增持最多股权的是云升控股(YINSON,7293,主板能源股),从截至去年底时的持股12.19%,加码买入4.19%至16.38%。

同时,云升控股在榜单中名次,从去年末季时的排名第25位,大幅跃进前十门槛,排在第6位。

另一方面,首季仅减持2家公司,分别是双威产托(SUNREIT,5176,主板产托股)和IJM种植(IJMPLNT,2216,主板种植股)。

根据名单,公积金局共减持双威产托0.38%股权,至14.53%,而减持IJM种植0.02%股权后,尚持有13.43%股权。



4个新晋成员

另外,首季的30大持股名单中,还迎来了4个新成员,汽车领域股项占两个席位,分别是柏马汽车(BAUTO,5248,主板消费股)和合顺(UMW,4588,主板消费股)。

截至3月底时,共持有两家公司15.16%与14.56%股权,分别在榜单中排名第12位及第16位。

另2位新成员,则是来自科技领域的东益电子(GTRONIC,7022,主板科技股),及产托领域的凯德商用大马产托(CMMT,5180,主板产托股),分别排名第26和29位。

此次跌出榜单的,包括AXIS产托(AXREIT,5106,主板产托股)、实达集团(SPSETIA,8664 ,主板产业股)、MQREIT(MQREIT,5123,主板产业信托)和首要媒体(MEDIA,4502,主板电信与媒体股)。

进场扶持马股

JF Apex证券研究主管李忠正接受《南洋商报》电访时指出,在大市不被看好、外资纷纷套现脱逃时,公积金局大量增持的举动并不奇怪。

“公积金局的策略往往都跟市场不一样,此次增持股项,是一种反向操作。”

因此,他认为这并不代表公积金局看好银行和汽车等领域企业表现。

“个人看法是接下来的银行业绩表现会不理想。该局是在多方面考量后才增持银行及汽车股的。”

李忠正透露,公积金局是本地多家银行的大股东,在过去很长时间内持有银行股股权,所以平均持股成本不高。

因此,公积金局才有本钱在市场不看好时,这样大量买入银行股权。

“该局在马股中扮演调节流动性的主要角色。当外资需求低迷时,该局就会购入部分股权调整市场情绪,反之亦然。”

不过,他指该局首季所能做的就是转移风险,在组合中增持防御性较强的消费股。

公积金局首季增持榜单中所有消费股股权,即永旺(AEON,6599,主板消费股)、PANAMY(PANAMY,3719,主板消费股)和PPB集团(PPB,4065,主板消费股)。

燃油贸易一哥 OK林这回不OK

2020年4月27日

若不是油价今年大震荡使新加坡石油贸易商兴隆贸易(Hin Leong Trading)突然倒下,人们对这家公司背后的灵魂人物林恩强的故事,还不至于那么好奇。

他是如何白手起家?如今又如何使集团陷入负债近40亿美元(约172亿令吉)的困境?

绰号“OK林”的林恩强(76岁),于1963年创办兴隆贸易公司,几十年内公司便成为全球最大燃油交易商之一。

林恩强建立的企业王国,目前拥有130艘大小不一的油船(从近海驳船到载重31.8万吨的超级油槽船),去年营收超过200亿美元(约860亿令吉),并被业者认为对新加坡的石油和添油中枢地位有贡献。

兴隆贸易也是最早与中国做生意的贸易商之一。

石油贸易业者每天押注油价数以亿元计,冒风险是家常便饭。

奋斗逾六十载经历多次大风浪并取得辉煌成绩的林恩强,为人非常低调,上次接受媒体访问相信是15年前。

他在业内是个出手交易能让竞争者冒冷汗的神秘又传奇的人物,没想到如今却栽在期货交易蒙受巨额亏损。

据说他逆势而行,押注中国疫情将受控制,油市将因此复苏,但没料到2019冠状病毒病成为全球大流行病,国际布兰特原油期货价格猛跌至22美元的水平,远低于今年1月时的70美元。

据报道,林恩强指示进行的期货交易,因冠病疫情引起的油价大跌和燃料需求骤降而造成巨额亏损。公司过去几年都不赚钱,如今财务情况因此急速恶化,终于累欠23家银行约38亿5000万美元(约165.6亿令吉)。

上周五,兴隆贸易申请破产保护,而公司目前正接受警方调查。法院文件显示,公司财务报表隐瞒了8亿美元(约34.4亿令吉)的期货交易损失。

公司申请债务延后偿付令之事,遭债权银行强烈反对,因此,据说已转而申请接受司法管理。集团旗下的海洋油船公司(Ocean Tankers)则继续申请债务延后偿付令。
林恩强

林恩强曾列狮城第八富

林恩强12岁从福建莆田漂洋过海到新加坡,16岁离校打工并当过渔夫,20岁时创业 ,开卡车运送柴油给新加坡船夫,从仅有一艘小渔船来供应柴油给其他渔船,他在五年内便收购了一艘载重100吨的油船,崭露他神奇的商业嗅觉、眼光和胆色。

从供应燃油给本地商家,发展到80年代末,集团已成为国际石油贸易界一家主要贸易商,销售石油产品到海外许多地方。

或逼卖资产

集团不只从事石油产品贸易和船只添油服务,它旗下的海洋油船公司和环宇仓储公司(Universal Terminal),分别从事石油及相关产品的运输,在新加坡裕廊岛上拥有投资额数以亿元计的储存设施。

兴隆贸易如今势将被逼卖掉在裕廊岛上的宝贵资产。

2013年,林恩强曾以15亿美元(约64.5亿令吉)的身家,入榜福布斯“全球亿万富豪”,位列新加坡10大富豪第八名。

与新加坡不少华商家族企业一样,兴隆贸易也捐款帮助本地学校。

新闻来源:《联合早报》

进场时机和选股法/冷眼(上篇)

2020年4月27日




《南洋商报》总编辑陈汉光4月23日转来一名读者的电邮,我原本不想回答,因为我很忙,也不想分心,当时我正在为我的一本新书《决战股市终极方案》作最后修饰,赶在行动管制令解除时就付印。

但这封电邮实在很特别,我不忍心不答。

①他写了2200字,而且很有见识,是个认真做功课的投资者。

②他是一名麻醉师,麻醉师是专科医生,麻醉师的责任是免除病人的痛苦,不过看此情形,麻醉师可以免除病人的痛楚,却无法免除在股市被烧伤的痛楚。

③更重要的是他的电邮是在凌晨1点5分写的,可见他睡不着。

买进最好时机没答案

综合他的电邮,他其实只是想知道两个问题的答案:

①何时才是买进的适当时机?(也就是熊市何时触底?)

②怎样选股及选什么股?

他也提到其他问题,如黄金投资,那非我所长,我就不答了。

关于何时才是买进的最好时机,我相信没有人能给予精准的答案,包括我在内。

在“十年一遇投资机会”中(4月8日《南洋商报》),我的确曾说过:“股市还有下跌空间,”但过后股市不但没有下跌,反而节节上升,可见我的预测(最低限度短期-极短期)是错误的,我抱歉。

我当时这样说有两个理由:

①在过去几年中,全球的负债额由国民生产总值的200%上升至300%,即使没有两黑天鹅的出现,已岌岌可危,两年来,经济学家和投资界大佬,也是根据这个理由,发出警告,认为世界经济崩溃的风险已越来越高,而且异口同声预测这次的经济惨况,将比30年代的大萧条更严重。

这样的报道和分析我看得多了,有点先入为主,所以在“十年”一文写到最后时就不自觉的跟着说“股市还有下跌的空间。”

要知道,他们这样预测时,油市崩溃和瘟疫肆虐这两只黑天鹅还没出现,如今不但出现,而且冲击世界经济的严重程度,大到没有任何人可以估计。

我认同他们的见解,所以才说“股市还有下跌空间”。

②我认为大马的当时指数,没有反映我国的经济实况,尤其是两只黑天鹅冒现对经济的冲击程度。

一些成分股本益比太高

富时指数中的一些成分股,本益比高得离谱,(森那美种植的本益比超过300倍,合理吗?),如果今年盈利大跌,本益比更高,下跌的风险也更高,这些成分股的股价如果大跌,富时指数还能站住目前的水平吗?

以上是我劝大家“无须迫不及待下手”的原因。

但是,话说回头,股市不是一个按牌理出牌的地方,大部分时间都是不合理的。股票分析鼻祖本查旺·葛拉罕“市场先生”(MR MARKET)一文,真是一针见血。

大马股市,我估计参与者多达200万人,任何看法,股民都可以参考 ,但不可尽信,因为那只是2万分之一的人的看法而已,包括我在内,投资者应心里有数。

企图猜测股市何时触底的人,无非是想以最低价买进。但不要忘记两点:

①最低价只有一个,如果这只股票有5000个股东,买到最低价的机会是5000分之一,你买到了,与其说是本领高人一等,倒不如说是运气好。

②更重要的是股票投资者成功,只要以合理价格买进就可以了,能以被低估的价格买进当然是最好。只要所买股票是成长股,买价略高只不过少赚些而已,根本不是问题,一只由50仙起到5令吉的股票,以50仙买进,赚了4令吉50仙,以1令吉买进,赚了4令吉。只是少赚50仙而已,问题不大。如果所买的股票盈利每下愈况,即使低价买进,仍可亏蚀,而且不知何时才可回本,这才是大问题。

所以,投资要成功,买对股票比买对价格更重要当然,如果能以低价买进,比以高价买进更理想,但是,谁有预测股价的能力呢?

作为基本投资者,我们只能采取两种策略:

①对股市或股份采取反向策略。

②对企业(股票)采取基本面投资法。

两者如能配合得当,多数能做到胜多败少,在股市,百战百胜是不存在的,只要做到胜多败少,就可致富。

https://www.enanyang.my/news/20200427/%e8%bf%9b%e5%9c%ba%e6%97%b6%e6%9c%ba%e5%92%8c%e9%80%89%e8%82%a1%e6%b3%95%e5%86%b7%e7%9c%bc%ef%bc%88%e4%b8%8a%e7%af%87%ef%bc%89/

周顯:炒燶期貨 凱恩斯拉布反勝

文章日期:2020年4月28日

【明報專訊】上周,油價變成了負數,不少有識之士已經講過,因為有儲存費用,又要符合環保條例,因此油公司寧願倒貼,也要把油沽出。

我當時馬上想到,如果我是亡命之徒,一桶收幾十美元,一千桶就有幾萬美元,收錢後,把油全部倒進大海,政府,你來拉我吧!讓我坐幾年牢吧,吹得我脹嗎?

但轉念便想到,要想搞這個,首先要付合約金,要成本,就不划算了。

話說大經濟學家凱恩斯是個大炒家,也炒過期貨,在輸錢後,不肯結算,結果要付錢收貨。然而,付錢收貨,又哪裏有貨倉呢?

凱恩斯的方法,是不斷同對方交涉細節,例如規格之類,堅持解決不了這些小問題,就不會收貨。換言之,是玩拉布。

結果是,在拉布的過程中,價格漲了上去,他沽貨走人,成功脫身。
1986年中大新聞系 專出藍絲成就高

對政府的大調動,最受矚目的是入境處長曾國衞空降去當政制及內地事務局長。話說曾國衞是中大新聞系1986年畢業的,大家都知道,新聞界向來是黃絲帶的天下,但曾國衞的那一屆,卻專出藍絲,某藍營傳媒的高層,清一色都是1986年畢業,現在再加一個曾國衞……話時話,在眾多年份之中,社會成就最高的,也是這一屆噃!好多人攞埋荷蘭水蓋𠻹!

但如果說到學習,他那一屆是有名的「4年4制」,每年都改學制,令到學生無所適從。這可能也證明了,工作同讀書是全無關係!

[周顯 投資二三事]

Monday, April 27, 2020

陸振球:投資農產品 古人智慧值得參考

文章日期:2020年4月27日

【明報專訊】今期《MONEY MONDAY》封面故事專訪商品大王羅傑斯(Jim Rogers),他認為股巿會反彈,油價正在築底,而因為美國無限QE的關係,未來或見通脹,建議投資黃金、白銀和農產品。

說到農產品,筆者即想起今年通勝「地母經」提及:「秋冬多饑渴,高田猶得半,晚稻無可割。」而通勝除了有人會視作玄學書,其實也是古時農耕社會的實用讀物,其預測天氣和農業每每準確,如地母經今年預測正確,則農作物價格或會飈升。

事實上,早前中國公布首季的食品CPI按年漲幅接近兩成,而上周美國農業部公布中國重新向美國採購大豆,最近美國糙米期貨價格亦升至6年新高,似乎都印證了羅傑斯推介投資農產品的說法。

另外,筆者曾有「高人」教路,古代中國最重要的商品便是大米,如真的出現「高田猶得半,晚稻無可割」的情况,米價便會飈升,在古代這便是代表通脹,自會有利黃金和白銀等商品,則羅傑斯加注黃金、白銀和農產品的做法,也值得參考和研究。

明報投資及地產版資深主編
[陸振球 主編的話]

Saturday, April 25, 2020

Episode 19: Four Enemies Of Making Great Trading Decisions

The four enemies of making great trading decisions is something all traders should be aware of. As human beings we all have natural tendencies that can get in the way of doing what is in our best interest. Watch the video above to become aware of these tendencies and some strategies on how to overcome them to start making great trading decisions!

The four enemies of making great trading decisions are:
  1. Narrow framing – can happen when you focus in on a small amount of evidence or a small amount of options rather than considering all the options that are available to you.
  2. Confirmation bias – can happen when we form an opinion about something and then we only focus on the evidence that confirms or supports that opinion.
  3. Short term stresses and emotions – can cause us to look for immediate ways to relieve the stress through pleasure or immediate resolution.
  4. Over confidence – can happen when a combination of narrow framing, confirmation bias, short term stresses and emotions run wild! Many times when a trader is over confident all the three other enemies of great decision making are amplified.
What can we do about it?
  1. Narrow framing can be helped by expanding your focus. A strategy I use is coming up with at least three different options.
  2. Confirmation bias can be helped by coming up with the opposite story. For example, if I am convinced that the market is going down, I create a story where the market is going up. I find this process helps with better decision making and preparation if the opposite is true.
  3. Short term stresses and emotions can be helped by looking very closely at what may be causing the situation and know that this can cause irrational decisions to be made. I find that applying the 10 – 10 – 10 rule to the situation brings much more clarity and calmness to the situation.
  4. Over confidence can be helped by being aware that when you have 100% certainty about something it is time to take a step back and critically look at the situation to determine whether that the certainty is a FACT and not an over confident opinion.
https://www.lockeinyoursuccess.com/four-enemies-of-making-great-trading-decisions/?inf_contact_key=eeccef94da1488a4ecf3b16241a42622

Friday, April 24, 2020

Is it time to part with rubber glove shares that are at record high valuation now?

Ahmad Naqib Idris/theedgemarkets.com
April 22, 2020 16:41 pm +08


KUALA LUMPUR (April 22): Some investors were seen to be taking profits on rubber glove stocks yesterday and the selling continued this morning, in view of the spikes in these counters to multi-year highs amid the Covid-19 outbreak, which drove the demand for rubber gloves.

After yesterday’s correction, share prices of rubber glove manufacturers seemed to be resuming their climb in the afternoon, although they have yet to climb back to their previous all-time highs.

At 4.08pm, Top Glove Corp Bhd was up 22 sen or 3.4% to RM6.72, giving a market capitalisation of RM17.2 billion, while Supermax Corp Bhd rose 15 sen or 3% to RM2.15, translating to market capitalisation of RM2.9 billion.

Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd rose six sen or 1.1% to RM5.40 for a market capitalisation of RM6.91 billion.

Meanwhile, Hartalega Holdings Bhd rose 10 sen or 1.4% to RM7.35 for a market capitalisation of RM24.9 billion.

The Bursa Malaysia Healthcare Index declined 2.4% yesterday to settle at 1,368.99 points, from 1,402.45 points the previous day, likely dragged by the declines among the rubber glove stocks.

Year-to-date (YTD), however, the index is still up by 9.5%.

Yesterday, among the big four rubber glove stocks, the counter that declined the most by percentage was Hartalega, which fell 5.47% to close at RM7.25 for a market capitalisation of RM24.53 billion.

The second biggest decliner was Top Glove, which fell 3.8% to close at RM6.50, followed by Kossan, which fell 2.9% to RM5.34.

Meanwhile, Supermax closed higher yesterday, up 3.09% at RM2.

The selldown on Hartalega followed a derating by Public Investment Bank Bhd analyst Chua Siu Li, who had downgraded the stock to “neutral” from “outperform”, as the positives for the stock have been largely priced in by the market.

In a note yesterday, the analyst said the research house is still optimistic over the company’s prospects in the near term due to the surge in demand for gloves.

“Following the outbreak of Covid-19 in China in late January, we upgraded our call on Hartalega to ‘outperform’ as we were of [the] view that the situation could worsen and benefit the glove makers. Hartalega’s share price has since rallied over 40%.

“While we are still optimistic over Hartalega’s prospects in the near term due to the surge in demand for gloves, we believe that the positives have been largely priced-in, as Hartalega has never traded beyond two standard deviations during the good times in the past,” said Chua.

JP Morgan also downgraded its call on Hartalega to “neutral”, given the less favourable risk-to-reward ratio following the counter’s rise YTD.

“For Hartalega, our revised December 2020 target price of RM8.60 suggests only 12% upside potential remains. After the 30% share price rally since late January (outperforming the KLCI by 46%), we are booking profits by downgrading to ‘neutral’,” it said.

JP Morgan prefers Top Glove for exposure to the rubber glove sector, which it said offers 21% upside potential to its revised target price of RM8.20, supported by a shift in product mix to more nitrile gloves which would support margins, and improvements at Aspion.

On the other hand, RHB Research Sdn Bhd maintained “buy” on Kossan with a higher target price of RM6.50, from RM5.70 previously, in line with an increase in its earnings forecast for the company.

The analyst said the better earnings will be driven by an increase in average selling prices, due to the shortage of rubber gloves worldwide, with room for further increases.

RHB Research analyst Alan Lim said the counter is undervalued and that Kossan remains attractive, valuation-wise.

“In a recent teleconference, Kossan said gloves demand had surged since February due to Covid-19. During this month, orders surged from China. From March, other countries — including the US and Europe — also increased orders.

“Due to the exceptionally high demand, Kossan’s orders are secured up to September. Its utilisation rate is now almost full at around 90% to 95% vis-à-vis normal levels of around 80% to 85% before Covid-19,” said Lim.

He expects Kossan to report a strong set of results for the first quarter of 2020, supported by higher sales volume, better foreign exchange rates and lower raw material prices.

Covid-19: Hartalega plant utilisation tops 90% as glove demand surge

KUALA LUMPUR (April 23): Hartalega Holdings Bhd told analysts that the rubber glove manufacturer’s sales lead time has increased to five months from two months, while plant utilisation rate rose above 95% from 88% in the previous financial year, as the Covid-19 pandemic led to a surge in demand for the company’s products.

TA Securities Holdings Bhd analyst Tan Kong Jin, who recently spoke to Hartalega, wrote in a note today that Hartalega indicated the surge in rubber glove demand has led to a 3% to 5% higher average selling price (ASP) for the company’s products.

According to Tan, key takeaways from the recent discussion with Hartalega include “orders feasibility of up to five months and capacity expansion."

"Hartalega’s NGC (Next Generation Integrated Glove Manufacturing Complex) plant 6 (4.7bn gloves) has commissioned four out of a total of 12 lines in 1Q20. However, since the implementation of the movement control order, installation of new lines were halted. Positively, we understand that the group is in the midst of resuming its expansion plans. The priority is to ensure that the contractors are free from Covid-19 which would require them to get a test as per MITI (Ministry of International Trade and Industry) requirements.

"We expect the group to ramp up the remaining 8 lines in P6 by 3Q20. Thereafter, earnings growth would be supported by Plant 7 (+3.4bn gloves/annum) which is targeted to commence 1st line operations by early 2021. All in, Hartalega’s rubber glove capacity is expected to increase by 17% to 44.7bn gloves/annually by FY22,” Tan said.

According to Tan, Hartalega is scheduled to release its financial results for the fourth quarter ended March 31, 2020 (4QFY20) in the fourth week of May, 2020.

The analyst said impact from the increases in rubber glove demand and ASP due the Covid- 19 pandemic are expected to be seen from 1QFY21 onwards.

"No changes to our FY20 earnings forecast, but we raised earnings by 2.2% for FY21/FY22 after increasing the average utilisation rate by 1.2p.p (percentage points) to 92%. Upon the earnings revision, TP (target price) for Hartalega is increased to RM7.20/share (previously RM7.04/share), based on an unchanged PE (price-earnings) multiple of 44.0x CY21 (calendar year 2021) EPS. Maintain sell due to pricey valuations,” the analyst said.

At Bursa Malaysia today, Hartalega’s share price closed down seven sen or 0.92% at RM7.50, for a market capitalisation of RM25.38 billion. The stock saw 8.17 million shares traded.

譚新強:Petrodollar已死 未來誰屬? Semidollar?EVBitcoin?電商人民幣?

文章日期:2020年4月24日

【明報專訊】早說過Covid疫情,將成為人類歷史的重要BC/AC分水嶺。雖然上周我已預測到OPEC跟俄國達成減產協議,仍未必能穩定油價,但仍想不到本周5月WTI期油,即馬上跌至前所未見的負37.3美元一桶!這不止是一次3sigma、甚至6sigma事件,是盤古初開以來從未出現過的AC無限sigma怪現象!

唯一可比喻的是從約十一二年前開始,全球開始出現負利率的怪現象,fiat currency(法定貨幣)卻是一個較抽象,純粹人為製造出來的概念,但石油是一件非常實在的商品,而且是代表能源的最重要商品。

有人甚至形容美元,自從1971年尼克遜總統把美元跟黃金脫鈎以後,已改為跟石油掛鈎,自此出現「petrodollar」一詞(另一定義為OPEC吸取了賣油收入,再循環出來購買資產和消費的美元)。這說法有點誇張,但也指出從上世紀70年代開始,石油,尤其OPEC,對全球經濟至高無上的影響。強如美國,也需因石油價格飛升帶來的通脹,而被迫放棄從二戰後一直沿用着,以美金等如黃金為本位的Bretton Woods系統。整個上世紀70年代,全球經濟可說被OPEC玩弄於股掌之上,開始墮進惡性高通脹的漩渦,後來更逐漸演變成低增長,但高通脹、高失業率,更差的滯脹(stagflation)局面。這情况一直維持至1981年,美國總統列根上台後,加上聯儲局主席Paul Volcker的支持,一齊下定決心打擊通脹,加息至17厘,寧願放棄經濟增長,都在所不惜。

後來到了1990年代,蘇聯解體,OPEC失去軍事上最大靠山,所以必須改為靠攏美國,自此,OPEC的影響力開始加速下降。後來俄國也逐漸成為重要產油國,再加上近十年的美國頁岩油革命,OPEC的所謂cartel(卡特爾)壟斷權,已名存實亡。

油價閃崩有兩大原因

即使如此,石油價格也不至於跌至比零更低的負數吧!况且跌得最厲害的是質量最好的West Texas Intermediate,而非以中東產品為主的Brent crude(暫仍站在約20美元)。首先油價跌至負數,當然並不代表石油已變為毫無價值的東西,即使全球經濟對石油的倚賴確在逐漸減少,但也不可能馬上完全放棄。這次油價「閃崩」有兩個主要原因。

首先是個簡單的技術性原因。WTI與Brent,兩種期油合約有個重要分別,Brent是用現金結算,而WTI則是需要用實貨(physical)結算的。但似乎大部分WTI參於者都只是金融炒家,並非用家,所以到了臨近本周二,5月合約到期時,明顯很多炒家擔心實貨交收問題而決定斬倉或被斬倉,導致價格急速下跌。加上近日幾乎所有儲油設施早已滿倉,包括海上油輪,所以如接貨,每月儲油成本大增,導致期油曲線出現非常陡峭的contango(正價差)現象。除此,據聞最大石油ETF──USO(佔期油巿場30%),在到期前兩周已必須地掉倉至6月期油合約,其他炒家亦知道此事,所以就趁勢推高6月合約,以及同時推低5月,加劇contango形態。USO為免倒閉和重複負油價危機,最近修改投資策略,容許分散投資至較遠期合約,並暫停發行新股。

第二,最重要的當然還是基本面上的需求問題。原本全球每日石油用量約1億桶,現在因Covid疫情的經濟停頓而跌了30%,即使OPEC跟俄國願意減產1000萬桶,也無濟於事。生產石油固然有成本,但停產也不容易,很多時候,因為需要現金流,即使虧本,油公司仍寧願繼續生產。另外有些油井是靠天然壓力噴出來的(gusher),地質學上不容易完全停產。過去出現過一些大型blow out意外,例如最有名,2010年4月的Deepwater Horizon意外,需時3個多月才停止漏油。在蘇聯,1966年的一次氣井大爆炸意外,持續數年仍未能遏止,據報道,最後出動了30公噸的地下核爆,才停止了漏氣和火災!

石油供過於求至少維持數月

我估計供過於求的現狀將維持最少數個月。跟股市一樣,短期內低位可能已出現,近日特朗普再發功,除早前曾說將啟動SPR(戰略儲備)機制購買石油,但這做法也限於約每天50萬桶的容量,前天他更說如伊朗炮艇在波斯灣有任何動靜,已下命令可隨時發動攻擊,摧毀敵艦。明顯這番話並非真的想對伊朗,目的是要托油價,短期內亦有點效,周三反彈了近兩成。但我認為即使6月合約不至再跌到負37.3美元,但愈近到期日,愈有機會再跌近0美元。

很多人爭議,誰是這次歷史性油價暴跌的輸家和贏家(有嗎?)。投資者來講,當然所有持有直接或間接石油好倉的都是輸家,肯定不止已浮現的新加坡的興隆集團,很多其他商品期貨交易公司亦應難免損手,以及他們背後的銀行。石油公司也有損失,但大多數也有做些對冲,連帶賣對沖產品的公司也面臨危機。據聞,國內一此理財產品亦有與油價掛鈎的,今次損失也頗慘重。據說有少數對冲基金在早前做了石油淡倉,恭喜他們,但應佔極小比例,賺到多少就不太清楚。

美國成油戰最大輸家

國家層面上,又有沒有贏輸呢?最大的輸家應該是美國。特朗普最喜歡吹噓美國近年重升上石油生產首位,不再倚賴進口。但其實頁岩油的生產成本由25美元至70美元以上不等,競爭力遠遜沙特(約3美元成本)和俄國(約20美元以下)。大部分為倚靠高金融槓桿的中小型生產商,即使政府出手援助,仍肯定很多將在今浪中沒頂。美國會否重失石油一哥地位?

有人形容沙特是這場石油戰贏家,因為成本最低,加上MBS是個幾可隻手遮天的獨裁者,不用理會他人,有能力打這場持久戰。但雖然表面生產成本只約3美元,但沙特財政完全倚賴石油,據說需要85美元一桶才可支撐財政開支!加上近日沙特投資頻頻失利,特別是投資在Softbank Vision fund的數百億美元,隨時泡湯,近日買入Carnival郵輪公司的公司的8.2%,亦是一場賭博。MBS雖然已逮捕了前皇儲Prince Nayef,但如國家財政出現巨大問題,政變危機仍然存在。

亦有人形容俄國才是真正贏家。普京永遠是最聰明的,早在2013年,已跟中國簽訂了25年價值2700億美元的長期供應合約。細節屬保密,但有傳說價錢高達100美元一桶!有講法,俄國因此有了跟沙特打價格戰的「底氣」!我相信中國成為俄國長期客戶,確有幫助,但是否足夠?俄國財政何嘗不是入不敷支,同樣需要油價高於60美元以上才可支持下去。尤其近日俄國出現Covid疫症大爆發,每天增加近5000宗,總數已超過6萬,死亡人數滯後,仍只約500多,但肯定將上升不少。俄國大城市如莫斯科和聖彼得堡也被迫封鎖,停頓經濟,財政壓力大增。普京企圖跟疫情責任保持距離,但可以嗎?他才剛在3月完成修憲,容許他在2024年再參選總統。在2月時,他的支持率約為仍非常高的68%,但已比2015年最高時的89%跌了不少,在AC疫後年代,又將是多少呢?

不少中國人缺乏安全感,即時宣稱中國是石油戰輸家,因為被俄國的昂貴長期供應合約「欺騙」了!但最近又有人作出相反演譯。他們首先懷疑價錢是否固定在100美元,還是有一個調整機制?我也相信可能有一些彈性,但也肯定仍遠高於現價。但有人指出,中國是全球第一大用油國,俄國供應只佔3%,卻因中國撐腰俄國而夠膽大打價格戰,其餘97%的石油價格因此而大跌,中國除笨有精,反而是大贏家!這講法似是而非,初聽有點道理,但想落又有問題。油價低固有刺激經濟作用,但超低油價當然也反映經濟極差的實况。道理跟租金高或低的問題一樣,低對省成本有幫助,但我就寧願生意好,但租金貴一點。如租金跌至負數,經濟有多差,可想而知。

人幣國際化慢 petroyuan難代petrodollar

除此,似乎俄國供應合約是以人民幣交割,所以近年俄國美元儲備銳減8成,轉為大量增持人民幣。這確是非常重要的里程碑,可能是打破美元霸權的第一槍,但「petrodollar」年代結束後,取而代之的是否「petroyuan」?

答案幾乎肯定不是。首先即使俄國願收人民幣,但人民幣整體國際化步伐仍然非常緩慢(未必是錯),距離自由兌換仍遙遙無期。

更重要的是石油年代已近尾聲,AC未來將是數據年代,Covid更把這時間縮短,油和汽車股,跟Netflix、Amazon、Zoom、Tesla和AMD等的表現對比一下,這交替現象就非常清楚。未來的貨幣本位,會否變成Semidollar?EVBitcoin?還是真的會變成「電商人民幣」?

其實我毫不關心那國是最大贏家或輸家,這想法已太過時。我最希望的當然是Covid充當人類引起摧毀環境和氣候變化的wakeup call,最後人類和地球能夠成功征服難關,相安並存,一齊成為AC後最大贏家!

平衡經濟環保不容易

先從人類性命來計算一下。上周已指出過,對抗疫情的經濟代價非常巨大,今年GDP損失將約5萬億美元以上,未來兩年都未必能恢復。但此經濟犧牲是有價值的,將有希望減少數以千萬計的Covid病死者。同時,本來每年因空氣污染相關而死亡人數高達460萬,今年隨時將減少100萬或更多。當然,上次也指出過,經濟停頓也可導致自殺、酗酒、甚至謀殺率上升,但交通意外傷亡又必大跌,抵消效應。更嚴重的是聯合國警告,本來因極端氣候、蝗災和戰亂,去年已有1.3億人瀕臨饑荒邊緣,現在再加Covid疫情影響經濟和農作物收割,此瀕臨饑荒人數將不幸或再翻倍!這危機又將抵消空氣質素改善的好處!唉!誰說平衡經濟發展和環保包括氣候變化是一件容易的事?

最後,從地球生態環境角度來看,今年確出現一線曙光。不少專家認為去年有可能已經是人類碳排放的最高峰,比本來預計的2030年,提早了11年!這「好消息」當然也是拜Covid所賜,是苦是甜,自己來決定。但這是否就代表巴黎氣候協議訂下的維持地球平均溫度不升超過攝氏1.5度目標,就一定能成功呢?不好意思,仍有點距離。按模型計算,如要達標,將需要連續十年,每年遞減碳排放量7.6%,本來已覺得近乎絕望。但今年中國碳排放暫時跌了15%以上,估計歐美今年也將下降8%至10%,所以今年估計可下降5.5%,甚至達標都有望。但關鍵在於明年和長遠未來。如經濟逐漸復蘇,但大部分國際領袖仍如特朗普般,繼續固執擁抱石化能源,那麼目標仍將落空。他早前說過,為刺激經濟願意大派錢財,但就是不願接受他認為是不切實際,但其實非常重要的「Green New Deal(綠色新交易)」。

我明白油價愈低,愈難戒除石化能源「毒癮」,更難選擇再生能源和EV。但如人類冥頑不靈,不願改善,小心應驗「充滿智慧」的白宮顧問Kellyanne Conway之說(她搞笑以為Covid-19是代表第19代病毒),小心將出現Covid-20、21、 22,或其他新病毒(或可稱為地球白血球?),迫使人類經濟進入冰河時期!

(中環資產持有Carnival、Netflix、Amazon、Zoom、Tesla及AMD的財務權益)
中環資產投資行政總裁
[譚新強 中環新譚]

Thursday, April 23, 2020

【全球大抗疫】史上首见! 全球晶片出货量恐连2年衰退

2020年4月22日

全球晶片出货量继去年衰退6%后,今年恐再衰退3%。图为江苏南通一家晶片制造厂。(中新社)

(纽约22日综合电)全球晶片出货量继去年衰退6%后,今年恐再衰退3%,研调机构IC Insights表示,这将是史上首度出现连续2年晶片出货衰退的情况。

IC Insights指出,自1980年开始记录全球晶片出货量以来,仅1985年、2001年、2009年及2012年出现出货量衰退情况;1985年出货量衰退16%,2001年衰退21%,2009年及2012年分别衰退7%及1%。

观察这4次晶片出货量衰退,IC Insights发现1985年及2001年的前一年晶片出货量有大幅增长情况,1984年出货量增加50%,2000年出货量也增加27%,库存增加可能促使1985年与2001年晶片出货衰退。

2008年晶片出货量仅小幅增加2%,并没有过多的库存需要去化,IC Insights表示,全球经济衰退,并冲击电子系统销售,是影响2009年晶片出货量衰退的主因。

据IC Insights统计资料显示,全球晶片出货量衰退后的隔年,出货都随即恢复成长,如1986年出货量增加18%,2002年增加15%,2010年与2013年出货量也都分别增加29%及8%。

IC Insights估计,2019年全球晶片出货量衰退6%,预期今年因2019冠状病毒病疫情蔓延全球,出货恐再衰退3%,将是1980年开始记录全球晶片出货量以来,首度出现连续2年衰退的情况。

Tuesday, April 21, 2020

Phemey.com - 如何令自已進步? 向老千學習







Hartalega Holdings Berhad - Still Good, But Priced-In

The outbreak of Covid-19 has created a spike in demand for Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) globally and share prices of glove makers have since had a good run considering that gloves are an important element of PPE. Following the outbreak of Covid-19 in China in late January, we upgraded our call on Hartalega to Outperform as we were of view that the situation could worsen and benefit the glove makers. Hartalega’s share price has since rallied over 40%. While we are still optimistic over Hartalega’s prospects in the near term due to the surge in demand for gloves, we believe that the positives have been largely priced-in, as Hartalega has never traded beyond +2SD during the good times in the past. As such, we downgrade Hartalega from Outperform to Neutral, with an unchanged TP of RM7.40, based on 48x CY20F EPS, which is at +2SD of its historical 5-year mean. Upside risk includes stronger-than expected earnings growth in the coming quarters due to margin expansion as Hartalega could raise ASP due to supply shortage.
  • Shortage of gloves and ASP revision. The Covid-19 pandemic has led to a significant increase in rubber gloves demand, resulting in a shortage in the market currently. However, due to its capacity constraint, we gather that Hartalega’s supply was insufficient to match the sudden surge in demand. Sales lead time has also increased from 1-2 months to 4 months as a result. Separately, we also note that the ASP has been adjusted upwards slightly, mainly to pass on the higher operating cost (ie: Covid-19 prevention cost, social compliance cost etc.).
  • Expansion. Hartalega has only commissioned 4 out of 12 lines in Plant 6 (+4.7bn pcs pa) as fitting of lines has been halted due to implementation of the Movement Control Order (MCO). However, we expect Hartalega to accelerate its lines fitting once MCO is lifted, in order to speed up its order fulfillment. Hence, we do not expect earnings growth to accelerate in 1QFY21F. On a separate note, we understand that Hartalega is not facing any labor shortage for Plant 6 presently, as it had previously obtained allocation for foreign labor from the authorities.
  • Sequentially better QoQ, but significant growth YoY. With the 4 new lines commissioned in 4QFY20, we anticipate sales volume for the quarter to grow by c.4% QoQ, given that the utilization rate has been rather stable at >95%. We project 4QFY20’s net profit to be in the range of RM123m-126m (+1-4% QoQ; +34-40% YoY). The sharp YoY jump is mainly due to low base effect, as Hartalega was hit by softening demand and stiff competition in 4QFY19. On a full year basis, we estimate FY20F’s net profit to range between RM442m and RM445m, which should be in line with our FY20F forecast at 95-96%.
Source: PublicInvest Research - 21 Apr 20

湯文亮:人人讀書 我去搵工

文章日期:2020年4月21日

【明報專訊】星期日晚飯時見到一名剛大學畢業的年輕朋友,佢話現在不少公司正在裁員,剛畢業的大學生搵工很艱難,所以,他早已申請繼續進修,亦已經有大學接受他讀MBA課程,現在等9月開學。

我對年輕朋友話,既然有大學接受你繼續進修,就應該去搵工,實話實說,MBA課程是給一些有工作經驗的人去讀,並不是給剛畢業的大學生讀的,但疫情影響經濟,繼續讀書是沒有辦法的辦法。

不過,年輕朋友話我較早之前撰文,叫大家在疫情之下不要做三件事,其中一件就是今年剛畢業的大學生不要去搵工,因為成功的機會率很低,結果會令大學生很頹喪,現時叫佢去搵工,算不算是出爾反爾。

因勢利導才能大勝

事情不能夠一本通書睇到老,當日曹操親自帶兵攻打張繡,打打下知道許昌有危險,於是撤兵,張繡打算追擊,謀士賈詡話唔好,因為曹操必定會用精兵殿後,從後追擊一定會失敗,張繡唔信,結果畀曹操殿後精兵打個落花流水,張繡在追擊失敗後打算退兵,賈詡話應該再次從後追擊,張繡勉為其難再出兵,結果取得大勝。

張繡話唔明箇中道理,賈詡話曹操突然退兵,一定會用精兵殿後,以防追兵,但在擊退追兵之後,就會將精兵調往前方,從速救援許昌,後部只剩一些老弱殘兵,所以不能夠抵擋張繡追兵,用兵是要根據形勢作出調整,否則,就不會成為一個出色的將領。

倘搵到好工 商場學到更多

我對年輕朋友話,今年一定會有很多大學生申請繼續進修,令到搵工的大學生質素大降,既然年輕朋友已經有大學收取,何不嘗試搵工,雖然話疫情下不少公司正在炒人,但亦有不少公司騰籠換鳥,一面炒人一面請人,現在搵工的大學生面對的競爭反而會減少,道理與賈詡所講的差不多,如果搵到一份好工,就毋須急於繼續進修,在商場上所學到的比MBA課程還要多,更何况不但不用交學費,而且仲有薪金攞,何樂而不為?

紀惠集團行政總裁
[湯文亮 敢說反話]

Monday, April 20, 2020

Supermax Corporation - Unwarranted 50% PER Discount to Bigger Peers

Stage is now set for a solid FY21 earnings growth amplified by re-stocking activities ramp-up due to the current pandemic and further boosted by better margins from higher ASP. On PER basis, it is trading at an unwarranted 50% discount compared to the historical 30% to its bigger market capitalized peers. We also raise our FY21E net profit by 8% and roll forward our valuation from CY20E to CY21E. Hence, TP is raised from RM2.00 to RM2.50 based on 21x CY21E EPS (at +1.5SD above 5- year historical forward mean). Reiterate OP.

Higher volume sales and ASP; longer delivery lead times. Longer delivery lead times are indicating that demand will outstrip supply at least over the medium-term. The initial Movement Control Order (MCO)-led supply chain hiccups have been resolved with the group’s production running at 100%. Additionally, industry is raising ASPs by 3-5% or between USD0.30 to USD0.50 per thousand pieces which is not excessive per unit cost due to incremental cost. We believe SUPERMX will benefit from the robust demand which has led to longer industry delivery lead times (the moment order was placed to delivery) which has risen to an average of between 80 to 100 days as compared to 40 to 50 days normally. Signs of demand outstripping supply could potentially lead to higher ASPs. Looking at the stable raw material prices, ceteris paribus, hikes in ASPs are expected to lead to margins expansion.

Acquired two pieces of land over the past 12 months. Looking ahead, growth beyond FY21 is underpinned by capacity expansion via two land acquisitions. SUPERMX recently acquired a piece of industrial land for RM20m measuring 4.1 acres while back in July 2019 the group had acquired a piece of land measuring 16.1 acres for RM65m. Both lands are adjacent to its current Maxter Plant in Klang the merged and enlarged land tract and subsequent expanded facility within the vicinity of its Maxter Plant should yield operational synergies and greater economies of scale. The 16.1 acres land is earmarked for plant 13,14 and 15 with an estimated capacity of 4.4b pieces for each plant over the next few years. The 4.1 acres land is slated for one plant with an estimated capacity of 4.7b pieces per annum.

Outlook. Plant 12 consists of Block A and Block B, each consisting of 8 double former lines with 2.2b pieces each (total 4.4b pieces). As of now, for Block A, its remaining 3 lines started commissioning in end March 2020 on top of the 5 lines already in commercial production. For Block B, all 8 lines are expected to be fully commissioned by 2H 2020. Upon full commercial production by 2H 2020, installed capacity will rise 13.4% to 26.2b pieces per annum.

Raised FY21E net profit by 8% after raising utilisation rate from 70% to 79%. We keep our FY20E earning unchanged as we have sufficiently factored the growth into our earnings model.

Unwarranted 50% PER discount valuation to the big market capitalization peers. Reiterate OP. We roll forward our valuation from CY20E to CY21E. Coupled with the earnings upgrade, our TP is raised from RM2.00 to RM2.50 based 21x CY21 EPS of 11.8 sen (at +1.5SD above 5-year historical forward mean) from 20x previously. We like Supermax because the stock is trading at an unjustified 50% discount to bigger peers’ average valuation compared to a historical discount of 30%. We highlight again that the 50% valuation discount to bigger cap peers appears conservative.

Key risk to our call is longer-than-expected commercial operations of new plants.

Source: Kenanga Research - 20 Apr 2020

Property Developers - Tempting Privatisations

With property stocks badly battered following the market sell-off, this has opened up a window of opportunities for substantial shareholders to privatize their listed companies at bargain basement prices. Logically speaking, the suitable privatisation targets would be companies that are already trading at distressed PBV valuations but financially sound with net cash/low net gearing positions. An added pull factor is the cheap funding options available amid softer interest rates.

Over the past two years, 10 listed property companies saw take-over offers priced at PBV valuation range of between 0.18x to 1.47x. Our study reveals that about half of the listed companies in the KLPRP Index universe are presently trading at PBV multiples of less than 0.30x, signalling that this could be a conducive environment for such privatization exercise to be undertaken. To separate the wheat from the chaff, we dug deeper by analysing the balance sheet strength in terms of net gearing and book value quality.

Based on our anecdotal study, focussing on the smaller size property companies as probable privatisation candidates, we conjecture that: (a) MCT (current price of RM0.18 vs net cash per share of RM0.32), (b) SHL Consolidated (current price of RM1.90 vs. net cash per share of RM1.56), (c) MUI Properties (current price of RM0.18 vs. net cash per share of RM0.11), and (d) KSL Holdings (current price of RM0.56 vs. net cash per share of RM0.25) could be potential “take-private

The making of take-over offers. The free-fall of property stocks, as captured by the Bursa Malaysia Property (KLPRP) Index’s losing streak of -28.6% in 2018, -5.2% in 2019 and -29.1% YTD 2020, has forced their valuations to slump to distressed levels with the KLPRP Index currently trading -2.5SD below its historical mean, which is even lower than the trough of -1.5SD seen during the 2008/09 global financial crisis. Consequently, a window of opportunities could have opened up for major shareholders to take private their listed companies at bargain basement prices.

A historical guide. To get a sense on the essence of past take-over offers, we track recent deals (which include both privatisations and buy-outs between major shareholders) of property companies listed on our local bourse. Since 2018, there were at least 10 listed property companies seeing take-over offers (see Table 1). It is worth highlighting that these offers were priced at PBV valuation range of between 0.18x to 1.47x and the financial position of these companies was relatively strong with net gearing of less than 0.35x (except for two cases) with three of the companies in net cash positions.” targets.

Source: Kenanga Research - 20 Apr 2020

李順威:信貸市場回穩支持股市

文章日期:2020年4月20日

【明報專訊】踏入4月之後,我看到的市場普遍共識是股市需要再試低位,投資銀行普遍看淡,理據包括:(1)新冠肺炎未見高峰,染病人數一路增加,英國帝國學院估計還會有很多波的肺炎疫情;(2)經濟模式預示衰退機會是100%,甚至摩根大通的Dimon估計會有很壞的衰退;(3)經濟及股市都需要時間來康復;(4)公司盈利將會大倒退;(5)公司回購減少,回購是美股的重要買盤來源。根據高盛策略師Kostin分析,2020年標普500回購金額將會減少一半至3710億美元;(6)根據以往熊市走勢,股市很少V形反彈,而且熊市很少在這麽短的時間完結。

當然也有例外,例如Bill Ackman、Tom Lee和以前一直看淡的Mike Wilson。Bill Ackman今次好淡通贏,先是為投資組合買重保險,然後在低位平淡倉轉為買入。Tom Lee分析以往三次大熊市(1987、2002、2008)的反彈比率分別是33%、33%和24%。標普500指數低位反彈33%是2600點,24%是2475點,標普500已經超過了這個水平。Wilson觀點是財政刺激和銀行非規管化將現金推到準備花錢的低收入人士及小商業,這個環球現象會導致美元走弱刺激通脹;過去一個月的清貨已經完結,資產估值是2011年以來最吸引,因此這次兩年前開始的周期熊市已經過去。

股市永遠在壞消息最惡劣時見底

根據Leuthold的Jim Paulsen,標普500波幅指數下跌至46.7,雖然由3月16日高位已經有所下跌,但仍然屬於1990年以來的較高水平;國庫債券波幅指數由高位回落之後,已低於過去30年的50%百分數。自從1990年以來,當股市波幅指數這樣高,而債券波幅指數這樣低(分別出現在2018至2019年),之後標指平均上升21%。

此外,亦有分析指標普500在3月23日見到一個底部,然後在11天之內上升37%。在以往歷史,當標普500指數在11日之內上升超過30%,沒有一次是熊市反彈。在7個星期之內,有22天標普500波動上落超過3%;之前的紀錄是1932年10月和2008年11月,標普500指數在之後一年分別上升40%和27%。

我有一個特別的看法:如果大家撇除2019年最後一季至2020年第一季的走勢,和2018年12月和2020年3月這兩部分,美國股市其實就是在附圖黃色格之內,現在差不多是在白色格子的中間,好像什麼事情也沒有發生過。當然看淡的朋友會說肺炎傳染病帶來的嚴重經濟打擊,怎會什麼也沒有發生呢?最少經濟不可能立即恢復原狀,所以股市應該要下跌。這個觀點其實是似是而非,因為經濟決定股市論一早就已經破產了;而且雖然大部分股票都是受到新冠傳染病的負面影響,但是市場仍然有因為疫情而受益的股票。

更何况股市是前瞻的機制,只會向前看,不會等待壞消息過去之後才上升。股市永遠都是在壞消息最惡劣的時間見底的。最重要的關鍵是聯儲局及環球央行入市,信貸市場開始回復穩定,這是股市的定海神針。

環球央行入市 股市定海神針

當聯儲局在4月9日公布將會提供2.3萬億美元新貸款,其中包括普通經濟貸款6000億美元,州政府貸款5000億美元;擴大企業債券買入計劃,承擔抵押品包括AAA級的商業按揭抵押證券以及新發行的抵押貸款;重要的是聯儲局將會買入自從3月22日以來從投資級債券降級至高息債券的企業債券,而且公布會買入長期投資級企業債券和高息企業債券交易所掛牌基金 。買入企業債券金額擴充至750億美元,如果以1比10的槓桿計算,將會增加7500億美元買盤,原先額度只是2000億美元。

聯儲局入市消息刺激企債市場,投資級別企業債券交易所掛牌基金、按揭債券和兩房債券已經返回跌市之前的水平,好像什麼也沒有發生,高息企債也顯著反彈。信貸市場回穩是支持股市的重要發展。

shunwailee@hotmail.com
[李順威 牛熊共舞]

Sunday, April 19, 2020

Ed Seykota!



"The biggest secret about success is that there isn't any big secret about it, or if there is, then it's a secret from me, too. The idea of searching for some secret for trading success misses the point."

"The 'doing' part of trading is simple. You just pick up the phone and place orders. The 'being ' part is a bit more subtle. It's like being an athlete. It's commitment and mission."- Ed Seykota
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I deeply believe that if one wants to learn a certain craft - he has to go for the best in the field.
Ed Seykota is a legendary futures trader and here I post his interview from Stocks & Commodities magazine:

Ed Seykota Of Technical Tools
Ed Seykota, whose thoughts and insights were chronicled in Jack Schwager's book Market Wizards, has been involved with trading commodities since the late 1960s. According to Market Wizards, Seykota's "model account" — an actual customer account — started with $5,000 in 1972 and to date has earned more than a 250,000% gain. Recently, in a new challenge, he purchased data and software vendor Technical Tools. S TOCKS & COMMODITIES Editor Thom Hartle interviewed Seykota in a series of written correspondence that took place over several months ending in May 1992, during which Hartle posed a number of questions relevant to all traders, including any secrets to trading successfully. Not too surprisingly, the answer to that was the same answer as for any endeavor — persistence and commitment!


How did you get started in technical analysis? What was your first trade?
The first trade I remember, I was about five years old in Portland, OR. My father gave me a gold-colored medallion, a sales promotion trinket. I traded it to a neighbor kid for five magnifying lenses. I felt as though I had participated in a rite of passage. I started early to get interested in technical analysis, too. By the time I was nine, I had a bedroom filled with old radios, test equipment and oscilloscopes. I liked to generate and display wave forms . Later, when I was 13, my father showed me how to buy stocks. He explained that I should buy when the price broke out of the top of a box and to sell when it broke out of the bottom. And that's how I got started.

With all that pointing you toward trading, was it inevitable that you would end up in it?
Actually, no. At the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), I studied servo theory, which is about self-controlling mechanisms such as thermostats, governors and chemical process controllers. Professor Jay Forrester showed me how to apply servo theory to economic modeling. His feedback dynamics approach required careful observation and deep thought about how things work.

So how did you get introduced to technical analysis?
About the time I graduated from MIT, I read an article by technician Richard Donchian that intrigued me. He demonstrated how a diversified simple five- and 20-day moving average crossover system made a respectable rate of return. That idea — the idea of an automatic mechanical moneymaking machine — fascinated me. So I bought some block time at a local computer service, spent my evenings punching up cards from The Wall Street Journal and began to reproduce Donchian's results. I tried varying the parameter sets and found that other combinations also worked. I noticed that longer-term smoothing worked pretty well, while transaction costs seemed to chop up shorter-term systems.

And then what did you do?
In the early 1970s, I went to work for a wire house. I would go in on weekends to use the IBM 360/65 accounting mainframe to run tests. I punched cards and ran batch jobs in FORTRAN 4. I managed to test four types of systems on about 50 different parameter sets on eight commodities going back a decade. It took me half a year. To show you how much computers have changed the way we do things, these days it might take one weekend on a PC.

So what did you do with that information?
Well, eventually, the management of the wire house packaged a product around my research. The problem was, my boss was unable to follow the system and his boss was more interested in souping up the system to generate more commissions. I told them their best move was to make money for their customers. No sale! Not only that, my boss reneged on his handshake that they would give me 10% of the commissions generated from the system. I got disgusted with them all and left. So at age 23, I went out on my own with about a half-dozen accounts in the $10,000-25,000 range. A few years later, I checked back with the boys at the wire house. They had hundreds of sales agents raising money for their souped-up rewrite of my system. I had more money under management than they did, and mine came from internal growth of my original accounts. I felt exonerated and glad I had escaped from a system based so heavily on commissions.

And since then?
I still test systems and think about the markets. I still collect data. I still manage money.

What is the secret to your success? What do you consider to be good mental skills for successful trading?
The biggest secret about success is that there isn't any big secret about it, or if there is, then it's a secret from me, too. The idea of searching for some secret for trading success misses the point. It's like golf. Some golfers play to spend time outdoors. They hang out with their cronies, become one with nature, study the greens, reconnect with their muscles, drop into focused concentration and, incidentally, pick up a birdie or two. For others, it's an exercise in finding some new Holy Grail putter. Different strokes for different folks!

In that case, what can an individual do to become a successful trader?
The "doing" part of trading is simple. You just pick up the phone and place orders. The "being" part is a bit more subtle. It's like being an athlete. It's commitment arid mission. To the committed, a world of support appears. All manner of unforeseen assistance materializes to support and propel the committed to meet grand destiny.

Should a person focus his or her time on developing mechanical or non-mechanical (judgmental) methods?
Judgmental systems are inherently mechanical. Gut traders trade according to set rules of attitude, approach and personality. But I also feel that mechanical systems are inherently judgmental. System traders typically use judgment for the enormously important tasks of rolling forward, changing bet size and adding or deleting instruments.
The point is, no real conflict exists between judgment and mechanical trading. A conscious trader is aware of money management algorithms, trading systems and the need for supportive relationships. He maintains his knowledge of broad and local economic trends and remains aware of his feelings. He is also aware of how his own personality works and creates a workable ecology between himself and the world around him.

If you don't use a mechanical trading system, have you built a set of rules to trade by? What are they?
I have many rules and some higher laws. Some of the rules are: Trade with the long-term trend. Cut your losses. Let your profits ride. Bet as much as you can handle and no more.

What do you mean by "higher laws"?
I feel that higher laws and rules govern much of my trading. There is a higher law that commitment and service favor performance. There is a higher law that greed and selfishness impede it. I feel I am in tune with these laws when things just seem to click. Other times I feel out of sync, as if I'm pushing a dull mower through tall wet grass.

Next to these higher laws, trading rules seem rather insignificant. Are price moves random? Is there any basis for trends? What makes prices move? С feel the "aha! " process lies at the heart of price change .

For instance, consider the series: OTTFFSSE. What is the next letter? This puzzle creates tension — until you see the first letters of the ordinal numbers — one, two. "Aha!" you say. A lot happens during an "aha." The puzzle dies and the tension dissipates. A societal "aha! " drives price. Read the newspapers and the news magazines during a major move. At first, no one gets why the move is happening. There's a lot of confusion. Part of the move's way up, some people get it. At the end, everybody gets it. The tension is resolved and the move ends.

Aha. I'll have to think about that. Can you tell us how you set stop-loss points?
Before I enter a trade, I set stops at a point at which the chart sours.

What about starting capital? How much money should a person have before starting to trade?
Good money management is equity invariant. I'd ask a trader who thinks he needs a certain amount before he can trade exactly what amount he would need to stop trading.

What are some of your favorite books that people should consider reading?
Through the years I have gained tremendous insight, perspective, skills, inspiration and strength from books. A short list of some of my favorite books about the markets would have to include Extraordinary Popular Delusions by Charles McKay; Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin LeFevre; and The Crowd by Gustare Le Bon.

Successful trading can be thought of as a business. Your new focus is running Technical Tools. Can you draw some co mparisons between trading and running a business?
Yes. I find a lot of similarities between trading and business. In trading, I have learned to ride the long-term trend, cut losses and manage money. In the case of Technical Tools, our customers, suppliers, competition and trade publications such as STOCKS & COMMODITIES indicate the long-term trend and help point to where we should be heading as a company in this industry. When I hire someone, it is usually on a trial basis until a strong "trend" of productivity sets in. Cutting losses in business has to do with discontinuing unprofitable products. Firing, also like cutting losses, is tough on the emotions and vital to the eventual success of all involved. Managing money means spending less than we make as well as not betting the ranch on just one idea. I find that the principles of sound trading have close analogs in running a business.

As Technical Tools develops I envision it as part of an enterprise in which trading and business converge. Lately, I have been beating the drum to call together a trading tribe, a kind of support group that borrows from tribal traditions as a means of cultivating group participation. Readers can write me in care of Technical Tools if they are interested in finding out more about this.

Running a business like a tribe sounds pretty unique. Thank you for your time, Ed.
You're welcome.

TTP - Re-Inventing Himself as a Trader

Feb 27, 2020

Dear Ed,

I think about a talk with you some months ago. I remember mentioning my huge losses and my unsuccessful trading endevors. Your comment still resounds in my head:

"You change yourself to turn into a successful father and husband. To be a successful trader, you have to change yourself again."

We discuss my risk proneness. My default reaction to "fear" is to brave it and not to be timid. While acting in this way, I get a record of many exceptional career achievements, but it does not work in the markets.

I recall you telling me "there are old traders and bold traders, but very few old bold traders."

You remember me swimming offshore in Puerto Rico and almost getting sucked by the current. While we talk about this I have a glance of myself as a child. I am in the second class. Two other children bully me and I pee on (myself). I feel extremely ashamed as I return to the classroom and have to face my teacher in my wet trousers. I guess that this event shapes my reaction to "fear“.

After our talk I re-calculate my risk and position sizing algorithms. I realize that it is possible to bet less than 2% of my equity in each trade and still be extremely profitable. I spend more than six months designing, back-testing and forward-testing a system. I start trading it in December 2019. In these first three months it reproduces my calculations. Trading turns a natural activity, free of excitement, like a bank transaction or... peeing.

I learn to follow my system. When I try to outsmart it, I make less money. When I try to predict the markets, I make less money. After a series of huge winners I get greedy. My trading turns more difficult. It is like you say about superior laws in link. I learn to experience and enjoy the ever changing moment of now and to accept any outcome as inevitable and the result of my intention.

Thank you for sharing your process.

TTP - The Over-Trader Blues

Feb 18, 2020

Hi Ed,

Hope you all the best in 2020!

After reread your aggregated FAQ and real trading, I've got a question about: how could you doubled your account while minimizing the risk to a percentage like 2% to 5%?

I'm having a problem like the winners could not cover the losses, and if I cut losses short, it seems it couldn't overcome the daily fluctuation in the market (it's commodity market), is it simply a problem of too small in capital?

I hope I could survive in the market and get success again, but I realize my previous success was a result of my over trading, which I want to avoid it now and use what I have learnt from you, Ed.

Please help me and thank you for your time to read my silly words.

Best regards,

Thank you for raising this issue.

Daytrading, Overtrading and other forms of low-discipline Powertrading generally provide lots of thrills along the way and then, ultimately, an all-consuming wipe-out.

All this excitement can serve as very effective distractive medication to mask personal misalignment with right livelihood.

You might consider taking your feelings about <what you can do to serve others> to Tribe as an entry point.

Saturday, April 18, 2020

TOP REASONS WHY LUXCHEM (5143) COULD BE THE SUPERSTOCK OF THE GLOVE BULL RUN, Calvin Tan Research

Hi guys,

Right now the demand for Gloves have outstripped supply worldwide due to the Coronavirus. Malaysia being world Latex & Nitrile Rubber Glove World Champions stand to reap a WINDFALL

It is said that Malaysia commands 65% of the 300 Billion Glove Market.

Why Malaysia and not Japan & USA?

The answer is obvious

Only Malaysia has rubber trees. And Rubber Gloves need fresh latex. Japan & USA no rubber trees! So is Oil. Malaysia is a net producer of crude oil which is converted to synthetic nitrile rubber

Ok so now we know that while airlines, shopping malls, hotels, tours and even factories are in a lock-up shutdown Gloves' producing factories are all RUNNING AT FULL SPEED

See TopGlove goes into overdrive production stepped up in both day & night 24 hour shift
Recommended by

Top Glove stretches to meet demand as virus grips the world

Malaysian group's 44 plants run full tilt to churn out medical

supplies

Top Glove's 44 factories and 18,000 employees are working around the clock to try to meet a massive upsurge in demand amid the spiraling health crisis, in which gloves are a vital barrier against coronavirus transmission.

And from theedgedaily

Surge in demand makes glove sector attractive to investors

Supriya Surendran
/
The Edge Malaysia Weekly
April 15, 2020 17:00 pm +08

Thus, the services of Malaysian glovemakers, which supply almost two out of every three gloves globally, are urgently needed.

While the economy and companies are suffering because of the government-­ordered lockdown, the pandemic has proved to be a catalyst for Bursa Malaysia-listed glovemakers. The flurry of buying activity has pushed their share prices up by 10% to 68% year to date.

Since Gloves need materials like Latex resin & Nitrile resin LUXCHEM also stepped up production. A call to LUXCHEM Office showed that they are open for business as Material for Glove Manufactures are essential industries. More so as Top Glove goes into non-stop 24 hour production as well as Hartalega (already increased Glove prices by up to 5%) Comfort Gloves, Supermax, Rubberex & others

Now there this new found demand is accompanied by a collapse of both Crude Oil & Rubber prices - making a saving of 50% to 60% on feed cost

Let's go deeper and see how this lower cost will power up the PROFITS OF LUXCHEM EVEN MORE THAN GLOVES

Refer Qtr of Luxchem

Revenue 187,155,351

Cost of sales (165,745,041

See how high was the cost of sales for LUXCHEM?

COST OF SALES WAS 88%!!

Why so high?

Crude OIl was as high as USD70 & RUBBER PEAKED AT $240 A KG ON JULY 2019

NOW CRUDE HAS FALLEN TO USD18.44 (Real live time http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/crude.php

RUBBER CRASHED TO THE LOW OF $130 See https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/rubber

These twin collapse in prices Rubber (Latex resin) Crude OIl (Nitrile resin) WILL TRANSLATE TO HUGE PROFITS FOR LUXCHEM BALANCE SHEET GOING INTO 2020 & BEYOND

In fact LUXCHEM also did very well when in Year 2014 Shale OIl Emerged from USA to hammer Crude Oil

On that Year of 2014 when JTiasa (RM2.50) & Mudajaya (Rm2.60) Calvin warned Uncle KYY to sell as Low Crude OIl will hammer Biodisel & Coal fired power plant of Mudajaya in India. Uncle KYY sold like no tomorrow & Both Jtiasa & Mudajaya crashed 60% to Rm1.00 & Rm1.10. After 7 months later Uncle KYY re-emerged in i3 forum but forgot to thank Calvin.

BUT LUXCHEM'S FORTUNE THEN WENT THE OPPOSITE AS ITS SHARE PRICE POWERED UP & DOUBLED IN PRICES FROM 64 SEN (2014) TO A HIGH OF RM1,31 (YEAR 2015)

The March 2015 Edition of STOCK PERFORMANCE GUIDE By DYNAQUEST has a comment by Great Sifu Dr Neoh Soon Kean then

See page 206

Last paragraph 6th line from bottom

And i quote

"Looking forward, we think the fall in oil prices could bode well for LUXCHEM as they used petroleum based products as raw materials." (Dr. Neoh Soon Kean, Dynaquest)

So that's it!

The Cycical downturn of oil has returned TO BOOST UP THE PROFITS OF LUXCHEM ONCE MORE

Calvin Tan Reseach calls for a strong buy on LUXCHEM with a near target price of 80 sen. If it can breach then next target will be Rm1.00 to Rm1.20

Best Regards

Calvin Tan Research

Republic of Singapore

Please buy or sell after doing your own due diligence. In doubt consult your stock broker or fund manager