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Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Pentamaster Corp - Poised for a Strong Recovery Post-Covid-19

Investment Highlights

  • We initiate coverage on Pentamaster Corporation (Pentamaster) with a BUY recommendation. Our fair value of RM4.45/share is pegged to an FY21F PE of 19x, in line with its peer local equipment makers’ average forward PE.
  • We expect the group to register core net profit earnings of RM99mil, RM111mil and RM124mil respectively for FY20F, FY21F and FY22F.
  • Pentamaster is a back-end automated test equipment (ATE) maker in the non-memory ATE and test handlers’ market. According to the group, test handlers account for 10–12% of the back-end ATE market.
  • Pentamaster is projected to achieve an impressive profit CAGR of 14% from FY19–FY22F riding on the growth in both its automated testing equipment (ATE) and factory automated solutions (FAS) segments, which in turn is driven by growth in key markets such as telecommunications and automotive.
  • The following are Pentamaster’s key investment merits:
i) Growth driven by the telecommunications and automotive sectors and adoption of Industry 4.0 to benefit consumer and industrial product markets;
ii) Revenue growth underpinned by its broadening exposure in 3D sensing technology in VSCEL;
iii) Margin expansion amid efforts to diversify across other business segments and customers;
iv) Aggressive expansion into the medical segment via its acquisition of TP Concept Sdn Bhd.
  • We believe that Pentamaster’s medium-term prospects remain positive, despite expectations that its 1QFY20 would be impacted by Covid-19 as the group anticipates a V-shaped recovery in subsequent quarters based on its current order visibility.
  • We like Pentamaster due to its positive growth prospects supported by demand for more smart sensors in devices, the upcoming 3D sensing technology wave, trend towards autonomous cars and electric vehicles (EVs) and the adoption of Industry 4.0.
Source: AmInvest Research - 31 Mar 2020

Monday, March 30, 2020

一场更大的萧条?/努里埃尔·鲁比尼



与2008年全球金融危机甚至是大萧条相比,2019冠状病毒病对全球经济的冲击不仅来势更猛,而且也更为严重。

在前两个事件中,先是股票市场暴跌了至少50%,信贷市场陷入停滞,随后就是大规模破产,失业率飙升至10%以上,而GDP则以每年10%甚至更高的比率萎缩。

上述流程走一遍总共花费了大约3年的时间,但在当前这场危机中,类似的宏观经济和金融惨状在3周内就成为了现实。

在本月早些时候,美国股市仅用15天时间就跌入了熊市区域(从最高点下跌20%),也是有史以来最快的跌幅。

如今市场已经累计下跌了35%,信贷市场停摆,信贷息差(比如那些垃圾债券)已飙升至2008年的水平。

就连高盛,摩根大通和摩根史丹利等主流金融企业都预计,美国首季的国内生产总值(GDP)萎缩幅度将达6%,次季为24至30%。

美国财政部长努钦警告,失业率可能飙升至20%以上,这可是全球金融危机期间最高水平的两倍。

持续I型暴跌

换句话说,总需求的每一个组成部分,包括消费、资本支出和出口,都处于前所未有的自由落体状态。

尽管大多数擅长自圆其说的评论家,都曾预测会出现一场V型下滑(产量在前一个季度急剧下降,然后在下一个季度迅速恢复原状)。

但目前可以明确的是2019冠状病毒病危机完全是另一码事。

当下发生的经济萎缩状况看起来既不是V形也不是U形,也不是L形(急剧下滑随后停滞)。

相反,它看起来像个字母I:一条代表金融市场和实体经济持续暴跌的垂线。

甚至在大萧条和二战期间也未曾像今天的中国,美国和欧洲那样暂停大部分经济活动。

不能用传统方式应对

最理想的结果是,经济衰退虽然比当年全球金融危机时更严重(就全球总产出的减少而言),但持续时间较短,从而能在第四季恢复正增长。

在这种情况下,当隧道尽头出现一丝光亮时市场就会开始复原。

但是这种最理想状况需要具备几个条件:首先,欧美及其他受灾严重的经济体需要出台广泛的冠病检测、追踪和处理手段,强制隔离措施以及中国那样的全面封锁政策。

同时由于大规模开发和生产疫苗可能需要18个月,因此必须大规模配备抗病毒药物和其他疗法。

其次,虽然那些货币政策制定者们已经在不到1个月的时间内,把全球金融危机后3年的活都干完了,但他们必须继续想尽一切办法制定非常规措施来应对危机。

鼓励放贷中小企业

这意味着出台零或负利率、加强前瞻性指导、实施量化宽松、放宽(私人资产购买)信贷以支持银行、非银行机构,货币市场基金甚至那些(发行商业票据和企业债券融资的)大型企业。

美联储扩大了其跨境掉期额度以解决全球市场美元流动性严重短缺的问题,但我们现在需要更多的便利措施以鼓励银行向那些流动性不足但仍具备偿付能力的中小企业放贷。



直升机式撒钱成主流

第三,政府需要出台大规模的财政刺激措施,包括通过“直升飞机式撒钱”的方式直接向家庭分发现金。

考虑到本次经济冲击的规模,发达经济体的财政赤字需要从相当于GDP的2至3%,增加到大约10%或以上。

在这方面也只有中央政府才拥有足够强大的资产负债表以制止私营部门崩溃。

但这些赤字型干预措施必须被完全货币化。

如果是通过标准政府债务来融资的话,利率必将急剧上升,而复苏也会被扼杀在摇篮之中。

在这种情况下现代货币理论学派中的左派一直提倡的干预措施,包括“直升飞机式撒钱”,已成为主流。

然而不幸的是,在最理想状况下,发达经济体的公共卫生应对策略,仍远未达到遏制疫病大流行所需的水平,而目前正在讨论的一揽子财政政策既不够庞大也不够迅速,不足以为及时复苏的实现创造条件。

这样一来出现一个新版本的大萧条(所谓更大萧条)的风险就与日俱增。

疫情若恶化后果堪忧

除非疫情得到遏制,否则全球经济体和市场将继续自由下坠。但即便这场疫情或多或少地受到了控制,到2020年底仍可能无法恢复总体增长,毕竟到那时候又可能出现一个新病毒亚型来激发一场新疫情。

许多人寄予厚望的治疗性干预措施或许达不到预期效果,至此经济将再度萎缩,市场也会再次崩溃。

此外,如果大规模赤字的货币化开始催生高通胀,特别是如果一系列与病毒相关的负面供应冲击拉低了潜在增长,则相关财政应对措施可能会陷入困境。

同时许多国家根本无法以本国货币来实施此类借款,那么有谁能去救助新兴市场中的政府、企业,银行和家庭?

无论如何,即使疫情及其经济后果得到控制,全球经济仍然可能面临许多“白天鹅”式尾部风险。

地缘政治恐分裂全球

随着美国总统大选临近,冠病危机将让位于西方与至少四个另类体制大国(中国、俄罗斯,伊朗和朝鲜)之间的新一轮冲突,而这些大国已经在使用不对称的网络战来从内部搞乱美国。

这些必将实施的、针对美国大选进程的网络攻击可能会导致极具争议的最终结果,并引发“操纵选举”的指控以及彻底陷入暴力和内乱的可能性。

同样,正如我之前指出的那样,市场大大低估了今年美国和伊朗之间爆发战争的风险;中美关系的恶化也在加速,因为双方都在指责对方要为冠病的大规模流行负责。

当前的危机可能会在未来数月和数年中加速全球经济原本就已经出现的巴尔干化和分裂。

而这样一个风险三连环--无法遏制的疫情、配置不足的经济政策武器库和地缘政治白天鹅事件--足以使全球经济陷入持续萧条和金融市场崩溃的危险之中。

虽然2008年崩溃后那些强有力(尽管有所滞后)的应对措施使全球经济得以从悬崖边生还,但这次可能就没那么幸运了。

https://www.enanyang.my/news/20200328/一场更大的萧条努里埃尔·鲁比尼/

SCGM forays into making PPE

Lai Ying Yi/The Edge Financial Daily
March 30, 2020 08:34 am +08

This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on March 30, 2020.

Lee says the company has received massive orders from hospitals, both locally and in Singapore, and even a number of enquiries from other parts of the world. (Photo by Haris Hassan)


KUALA LUMPUR: The shortage of personal protective equipment (PPE) due to the unprecedented demand amid the Covid-19 pandemic has prompted some frontline staff in local hospitals to use do-it-yourself (DIY) protective gear made from everyday items such as plastic bags and cling wraps.

Some charitable organisations and individuals have even started making protective face shields using acrylic sheets and plastic sheets materials, as well as 3D printing, to donate to hospitals that are in need.

Riding on the sudden surge in demand, SCGM Bhd, which specialises in thermoform food packaging products, has also decided to foray into making protective face shields.

Its executive chairman Datuk Seri Lee Hock Seng told The Edge Financial Daily that the company had received massive orders from hospitals, both locally and in Singapore, and even a number of enquiries from other parts of the world.

However, he said that due to constraints arising from the movement control order (MCO), the company’s factories could not operate at their optimal levels to meet the huge demand, with backlog orders slowly piling up, forcing the company to ignore overseas demand.

But last Tuesday, SCGM received approval from the ministry of international trade and industry (Miti) allowing the company to resume normal operations during the MCO. Lee hopes that with the ramp-up production, the company can catch up with the heightened demand.

Lee claimed that Miti had been slow in responding to its request.

“Since the MCO started on March 18, we have been making all the relevant applications, but there were no responses at all, not even a reply on whether we failed the process or not.”

“We had lost invaluable amount of time, which equates to our productivity to supply these essential medical gears. Throughout this period, the whole supply chain was literally malfunctioning and some of the auxiliary items are running out.”

Asked about the availability of inventory, Lee said it is not an issue as the company has ample stock of polyethylene terephthalate (PET), the raw material for making face shields. There is sufficient raw material in Malaysia as a few huge PET producers operate here.

However, Lee is more concerned about auxiliary items, such as sponge foams, rubber elastic bands and carton boxes, as these PET producers might not be able to get the authority’s approval to operate at normal capacity.

Mass production of face shields

Moving forward, SCGM will focus on producing face shields with a quarter of its workforce involved in production at its newly-formed healthcare protection gear pipeline.

In addition, Lee said the company has ordered a face mask making machine, and is looking at moving into mass production in mid-April. The company was also able to obtain non-woven fabric raw material.

“We will be allocating our resources to the healthcare portfolio, as the margins are generally higher than the current ones.”

On whether SCGM’s existing business has been affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, Lee said that due to people’s behavioural change during the MCO, takeaway demand has surged which has, in turn, benefitted the company’s business.

“Despite the [partial] lockdown, supermarkets and essential food services are still operational, and in fact our products are mainly servicing these two segments. We are truly the lucky ones,” Lee said.

In terms of overseas business, SCGM is still busy fulfilling its obligation with its Australian and Indonesian counterparts, which is why it cannot allocate more resources to the higher-margin healthcare pipeline.

On prospects, Lee is optimistic about the company’s business momentum and expects commendable financial results for the coming quarters.

Favourable feedstock price

Public Investment Bank Bhd, in a research note in December 2019, noted that resin prices have fallen to US$850 per tonne, the lowest level in 10 years, due to supply glut by global resin producers.

The research house said the steep decline in resin cost, which makes up 60% of SCGM’s production cost, will result in significant cost reduction for the company. In addition, SCGM’s management does not practise a hedging policy and thus it allows the company to benefit immediately from low resin prices.

As at last Friday, the spot price for Southeast Asia polyethylene was US$900 (RM3,894) per tonne, still considerably lower than its recent 10-year peak of US$1,680 in 2013.

SCGM’s recent financial results showed that the company posted net losses for financial years 2018 and 2019 despite reporting slight improvement in revenue.

In February 2017, the company began constructing its new factory at a cost of RM54 million. The relocation was fully commissioned in mid-2019.

Throughout the period, the company sustained high depreciation and relocation costs, while fine-tuning its manufacturing capacity back to optimal levels.

Lee said the relocation process was completed eight months ago, and the machines are now operating at optimal levels.

SCGM returned to profit for the six months ended Oct 30, 2019.

Its shares rallied from a low of 76 sen in August 2019 to hit a high of RM1.68 in January 2020.

However, the stock fell in line with the broad market movement, falling to an initial low of 76 sen on March 19, before rebounding to RM1.07 last Friday, valuing the company at RM207 million.

曾淵滄:太古系具私有化誘因

文章日期:2020年3月30日

【明報專訊】美國參議院以96票對0票通過2萬億美元的救災加追預算,看了這則新聞,不得不稱讚美國人,在平日,美國兩黨政治人物明爭暗鬥,但是,今日國難當頭則顯出無比的團結。

在參議院公布這項投票結果後,美股再升,3個交易日,道指上升3961點,即21%,的確令人吃驚,緊接着美國參議院通過2萬億美元撥款後,G20會議也發出聯合聲明,G20會撥款5萬億美元救經濟,差不多同時,新加坡政府也加追預算救經濟,再增加480億坡元的緩助金,連同較早時於財政預算案提出的64億坡元,總額接近544億坡元(約3000億港元),人口比香港少,只有500多萬人口的新加坡政府推出3000億港元救經濟,看來特區政府也應該加碼救經濟了。新加坡救經濟的主力是保就業,政府代航空業、旅遊業、飲食業的僱主支付大部分的僱員工資,條件是不許炒人。

太古系市帳率不足0.2倍

股價低迷,超值股愈來愈多,李嘉誠已經出手了,大量買入長實(1113)及長和(0001),其中買入長實的金額又比買入長和多,這也說明還是磚頭最有吸引力,論磚頭的吸引力,嘉國(0173)可能排在最前面,目前嘉國每股資產淨值11元,而股價在大幅度連升4日之後仍只是3.44元。

不過,若論股價與每股資產淨值的折讓,那麼,最具吸引力的股可能是太古A(0019)及太古B(0087),太古A加太古B的總市值只是700億元,而淨資產總值達3800億元,市帳率不足0.2倍,如此高的折讓率,隨時都可能出現私有化。回顧歷史,太古這隻股之所以出現A股與B股,就是因為多年前Swire家族擔心1997年之後的香港前途,因此推出投票權與A股相等,但實際金錢權益與A股差5倍的B股,當初的原意就是如果有一天Swire家族看淡香港前途,可以沽出太古A套現,而自己保留太古B,則仍可控制太古集團的管理權,因此,也可以說,太古集團是香港最早的一批同股不同權的股票之一,如今,整個太古集團A+B的市值僅700億元,而資產值達3800億元,怎麼會沒有私有化的誘因?

太古B股息率接近8厘

股價與資產值之間出現大折讓,有私有化的誘因,也有大股東增持的誘因,不論是私有化或是增持,對股價都有利,這應該是目前最值得買入的股票,買入這類股票不求馬上有炒作,但是,一旦出現私有化,就可以突然賺一筆錢,就算沒有私有化,大股東也不增持,收股息也該不錯,股市低迷之際,買股收息就是進可攻,退可守的基本策略,目前,太古B的股息率竟接近8厘,嘉國股息率也接近6厘。

大學教授
[曾淵滄 滄海明珠]

潘啓才:趁疫情在家練好基本功

文章日期:2020年3月30日

【明報專訊】隨着疫情在歐美大爆發,暫時仍未見受控,就連英國首相Boris Johnson亦被確診,所以在過去一個多星期,我同大部分香港人一樣,仍然憂心忡忡,怕疫情在香港會失控,加上我的兒子仍然留在英國,所以令我格外憂心,所以基本上沒有心情炒股票。

為了取得寫作靈感,只好拿別人的文章來看,讀到好友周顯大師在報紙上寫了一則笑話,話說他的一名朋友為某名老闆做莊家,做完之後,手上還有幾千萬元股票,未曾沽出,十分惆悵。

誰知有一天,忽然大量買盤出現,他如獲大赦,出了幾日貨,終於把股票沽清。後來他才發現了真相﹕原來這公司有兩大股東,其中一位幫另外一位接貨,誰知這過程中,卻錯接了他的貨,無端端發達。

為什麼會有這種情况出現呢?朋友的解釋是﹕

第一,大老闆通常吩咐手下做盤﹕明天幫我買幾多股這股票,不會自己對着股票機;

第二,這些大老闆通常都不玩電腦,不會看中央結算紀錄,更加不會看David Webb文章。

大老闆莊家 多不會看中央結算紀錄

當然不是所有大老闆都是這樣的,就以我認識的一位大老闆,即係揸住十隻八隻殼級別的,放係iPad嘅home page上的連結就係David Webb嘅website,每次約他見面傾刁,老是見他偷睇webb-site 的CCASS holding changes,如果連已經上岸的大老闆都咁勤力,我吔呢班仍然在邊緣掙扎的老散,無理由唔加倍努力,努力學好財技知識,等疫情過去,細價股的春天再次來到,我們便有機會先人一步,實現刀仔鋸大樹的夢想。

作為入門基礎知識,學習運用webb-site 所提供的免費資料,例如搞通股票每天的轉倉情况,股權的分佈情况,查找疑似股票被押倉的情况,股票供股、配股如何影響股價等。這些基本財技知識,在webb-site裏面,由於日子有功,確實積累了大量有用的知識及數據,但對於初學者,最大的障礙是字多兼很少圖及用英語。

我為了令自己盡用自我家居隔離的時間,及趁機把財技基本功操得更熟練,所以決定了每天至少拍一條Youtube片,把一些難以完全用文字去表達的財技知識,以圖文並茂,再加旁白解說,讓讀者就算是白紙一張,也可以去淺嘗財技的奧秘。

嘗試拍片解釋抽象財技知識

由於我做事喜歡先開始,再改良,所以就算設備不齊,我已在幾天前,即時利用手上有的資源,開拍了第一條片,我做片的方式很簡單,先決定一條片的題目,然後去搜集資料,再把拍片的內容寫下重點,然後就拍,基本上一take過,唔會刪剪,最多加上首頁照片,然後馬上上載到Youtube,用我這方法做片,優點是可以做得快及多,也比較容易養成習慣,缺點當然是粗糙不堪,對於有要求的人,好難叫他們用我的方法。

www.phemey.com
[潘啓才 通天財技]

Friday, March 27, 2020

Top Glove - Demand Due to Covid-19 Outbreak to Fuel 2H

We dialled into Top Glove’s 2QFY20 conference call and here are some takeaways. Top Glove production lines are uninterrupted during the MCO period as gloves are considered an essential healthcare product, with production lines running at 100%. Stronger demand in 3QFY20 is expected due to Covid-19 outbreak along with improved profitability through higher utilization. We adjust our FY20-22 forecast upwards by +4.6%, +1.1% and +1.4% after factoring in higher utilisation due to Covid-19 and expansion of capacity. Maintain BUY with higher TP of RM7.40 (from RM6.76), as we roll forward our valuation to mid-FY21 earnings pegged to PE multiple of 35x (+1.5SD above mean).

Recap. 1HFY20 revenue stable at RM2.4bn (+0.7% YoY) thanks to sustained volumes (+0.6% YoY), followed by an increase in core PATMI to RM231.3m (+10.1% YoY) due to EIs and lower tax (effective tax rate of 11% vs. 1HFY19: 18%).

Growth in coming quarters. During the SARS outbreak (2003), global demand for gloves showed an increase of c.15.5% while during H1N1 (2009-2010), it increased to c.16%. While Top Glove has not seen a significant increase from Covid-19 in 2QFY20, we expect this to be evident in the coming quarters. As at 2QFY20, utilisation rate is at 86%, and as we understand, the current utilisation rate is more than 95%. This is to ensure all orders are being met specially to combat Covid-19. Currently we understand that Top Glove’s production lines are not affected with the Movement Control Order (MCO) which has extended to 14th April 2020, as gloves are considered an essential healthcare product. Production is running at 100%, as we comprehend the company recently received an exemption to fully staff its production lines. What more, Top Glove is the largest manufacturer in the world, commanding 26% of global market share. Stronger demand in 3QFY20 is expected due to Covid-19 outbreak along with improved profitability through higher utilization.

ASP. YoY, ASP was flattish (-0.1%) due to mixed prices, increased for latex, vinyl and surgical gloves but decline in nitrile gloves. With the expected overwhelming demand for gloves, we expect ASP to exhibit upward pressure as distributors compete for orders.

CSR. Top Glove has donated 3m pieces of gloves to China as part of an initiative by the Malaysian government and Malaysian glovemakers earlier in January 2020. For Malaysian usage, Top Glove is currently committed to donate 2.5m pieces of medical gloves to aid in the fight against the Covid-19 pandemic to various parties; MOH, PDRM, MARGMA, NGOs as well as RM500k cash contribution to MOH.

Outlook. We expect stronger 2HFY20 in view of the ongoing Covid-19 outbreak. The epicentre has moved from China to Europe, whilst cases started to spike in the USA. Thus, demand growth is expected to exceed the traditional 8-10% per annum. Top Glove’s expansion plans are still going as planned, with no expected delays. In 2020, it will add c.8.2bn pieces in capacity (+16.4% YoY). By 2021, it is projected to have 39 factories with 861 production lines (+11.6% YoY).

Forecast. We increase FY20-22 forecast by +4.6%, +1.1% and +1.4% after raising utilisation assumptions to 85% due to Covid-19 outbreak and capacity expansion.

Maintain BUY, with a higher TP of RM7.40 (from RM6.76) as we roll forward our valuation to mid-FY21 EPS, pegged to PE multiple of 35x (+1.5SD above mean). Top Glove is a good hedge against the broader market negatives from Covid-19 and weak ringgit.

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 27 Mar 2020

Genting Bhd - It’s Really Cheap; BUY

Index-stock GENTING has been bombed out in this COVID- 19 pandemic-led market melt-down, tanking 41% YTD nearing -3SD PBV to its 5-year mean. We opine that a hit on earnings is expected to be severe as casinos are temporarily closed but the aggressive sell-down has overshot beyond fundamentals as the pandemic will subside eventually. Meanwhile, its financial strength will keep it braving through this troubled times. Keeping OP for its deep values with a lower TP of RM4.90. Ideal entry price is placed at RM3.20.

Share hit by COVID-19. YTD, share price of GENTING has plunged 41% to near 3SD below its 5-year PBV mean as the COVID-19 spread to become a pandemic globally that is restricting business activities. So far, the group’s Leisure and Hospitality operations are mostly temporarily closed except GENS’ Resorts World Sentosa and GENM’s Crockfords Cairo in Egypt. Having said that, we believe the sell-down to -3SD level is overly pessimistic and also too excessive. At one point, it closed at RM1.92 last week, -51% YTD or at 11-year low since the 2009 financial crisis.

Cut FY20 estimate by another 13%. Following our previous 27% cut in FY20E earnings in end-Feb to adjust for GENM and GENS’s earnings on the COVID-19 outbreak, we cut FY20 earnings estimate further by 13% on the back of the 4-week Movement Control Order (MCO) in Malaysia and the closure of other non-Malaysia GENM casinos in UK, USA and Bahamas coupled with revised GENP’s estimates on lower CPO price by 6% to RM2,550/MT. We also reduced FY21 earnings forecast by 7% for the adjustment in GENM earnings as well as a lower CPO price-driven GENP forecast. For now, we keep our GENS projections unchanged as we have already cut forecast at end-Feb and Resort World Sentosa is still open during this period.

Value the stock at -2SD from 5-year PBV mean. Given the challenging business condition, earnings estimate is dicey at this juncture. Therefore, we decided to switch to PBV valuation method from SoP valuation. At current environment, we place -2SD as the fair value level for casino operators while the ideal entry price should be at -3SD. This is one notch lower than the NFO players as casino players face higher earning risk than NFO peers, as demonstrated by the current sell-down. In SoP prospective, GENTING is now trading at 63.2% discount to its SoP valuation which is comparable to -4SD 5- year mean of 63.4%

Keep OUTPERFORM for deep valuation. We cut our target price to RM4.90, which is based on 0.5x PBV or -2SD PBV 5-year mean, from SoP-driven target price of RM6.65. We believe the new target price is fairly conservative which implied a 10% premium to its combined equity stake values in GENS and GENM based on current prices, not forgetting its equity stakes in GENP and other non-core businesses. As such, it is offering deep value at this price. Thus, we maintain our OUTPERFORM rating. Ideal entry price is RM3.20 which is -3SD PBV 5-year mean of 0.34x. Risk to our call is a prolonged COVID-19 pandemic which will continue to restrict travelling and affects its casino operations.

Source: Kenanga Research - 27 Mar 2020

Hartalega’s Next Phase of Expansion: NGC 2.0

Macquarie Equities Research (MQ Research) wrote a report on Hartalega following its announcement on the 96 acres land purchase for factory expansion. MQ Research summarized that the plant will likely only contribute to earnings in FY23E as construction begins in 2021. Though the movement control order (MCO) may spell some delays in Hartalega’s expansion, resulting in further shortage of gloves in the market, MQ Research maintains its Outperform rating on this glovemaker with a target price (TP) of RM7.10.

Event

  • Hartalega announced plans to acquire 95 acres of land for total consideration of RM263m for the next phase of expansion and is set to commission the first line by 2HCY22. Apart from this, management also indicates current market is having shortage of gloves. This is in line with MQ Research’s investment thesis, which should lead to potential average selling price (ASP) increases and margin expansion.

Impact

  • Acquisition details. The 95 acres of land are located at Banting, 32km away from existing Next Generation Integrated Glove Manufacturing Complex (NGC). As part of the deal, the vendor will convert the land into heavy industrial title and construct road infrastructure. This acquisition is targeted to complete by 2HCY22 and will be funded by internally-generated funds or bank borrowings. Assuming the RM263m is fully funded by bank borrowings, Hartalega’s gearing ratio raises from 10% to 20%.
  • Replicating NGC 1.0 model. NGC 2.0 will have seven plants, which have total 32bn pcs capacity (+74%). This will bring total capacity to 76.0bn pcs in 2029. Plant construction is targeted to begin in 2021, which is concurrent with the vendor’s construction of road infrastructure. The first plant is expected to commission in 2H22. Hence, NGC 2.0 will only start contributing to FY23 earnings.
  • Updates on COVID-19 impact. Management acknowledged that the market is experiencing a shortage of gloves due to the recent spike in COVID-19 infections. It also confirmed that it has been able to raise ASP to pass through higher operational costs. Hence, MQ Research reiterates its thesis on the shortages lead to margin expansion for all glove makers, including Hartalega.
  • Impact from MCO. Plant 6 expansion is likely to experience some delay due to the 28 days of MCO. Recap, MQ Research’s initial expectation is to add another two lines from Plant 6 in April. Each line produces 0.39bn pcs/annum (1% of total installed capacity). That aside, supply of raw material and other packaging materials is not an issue during MCO as Hartalega has sufficient inventories and overseas sources.

Action and Recommendation

  • MQ Research views rubber gloves as a staple within the healthcare industry, which MQ Research believes justifies the premium valuation for the sector. MQ Research reiterates an Outperform rating on Hartalega with a TP of RM7.10, which is based on +1.5 standard deviation of 43x. MQ Research’s top pick remains Top Glove (TOPG MK, RM6.11, Outperform, TP: RM7.35), which trades at 28x price-to-earnings ratio vs. Hartalega at 42x.

12-month Target Price Methodology

  • HART MK: RM7.10 based on a Total Shareholders Returns methodology
  • TOPG MK: RM7.35 based on a Total Shareholders Returns methodology
Source: Macquarie Research - 27 Mar 2020

赚幅胜沙斯期·顶级手套订单飙163%

(吉隆坡26日讯)手套业是少数因冠病疫情而受惠的领域,根据全球最大手套制造商顶级手套(TOPGLOV,7113,主板医疗保健组)透露,在冠病肆虐的2月初开始,公司订单飙163%至约半年才可交货,预期赚幅远比沙斯(SARS)肆虐期间更丰,达20至40%之间。

顶级手套集团主席丹斯里林伟才今日在透过电话会议的汇报会披露,从2月3日至3月23日,公司的每周手套订单增幅达163%,从11亿2000万个增长至29亿4000万个。

世界卫生组织3月12日起宣布冠病为全球大流行,该集团手套从每周11亿个正常订单,飙升118%至逾24亿4000万个,然后再走高至超过29亿个。

他说,各个国家需求视疫情紧迫性而增,比如中国在疫情高峰期增至8.1倍,减缓时则缓至2倍。澳洲在最近两周增10.5倍。

优先应付各国政府订单

他说:“这期间,我们优先应付各国政府订单,因这些订单是供给医护人员在前线‘战疫’时的防护。”

他披露为了应付殷切需求,该集团产能也从2月初的85%,提振至超过95%,24小时分两班赶货。

他说,办公室员工一半居家办公,目前担忧的是生产部份仍然缺少10%工人。

5至6月料调整售价

林伟才也说,目前原料价偏低,因此预期会在5至6月期间调整平均售价。

他预期至财政年下半年(8月杪截止),基于手套价量齐升,赚幅可扬升,来到20%至40%,相比沙斯期间为16.4%。

根据该集团资料,2009年沙斯期间净赚幅与营运赚幅介于11.0至18.8%。

提到手套供不应求的问题,林伟才说,他预期供应短缺达2至3个月,过后会恢复稳定而正常化。

基于各国疫情各有先后,即从中国而目前美欧疫情愈加严重,他预期抗疫期可能拉长到6至9个月之久。



李金谋:与政府商谈
供应中断隐忧解决

由于政府的行动管制影响,集团董事经理拿督李金谋指出,在与政府商谈后,已经解决供应恐断链的隐忧。

大马在3月18日起实施行动管制,管制初期一些供应商不获准营运。

李金谋指出,在与国际贸工部沟通后,供应商已获准恢复营运,有关化学品与用于包装的油墨周三也获准供应,克服了供应链断裂的问题。

他说,该团周四还会再与国际贸工部进一步沟通,以给予手套生产营运,作为支援前线医护人员“抗疫”的重要工业地位。

不过,该公司的包装与化学供应早前已经有准备而有库存,在短期断供应期间还持续营作。

林伟才指出,迄今供应链的供应商与政府等单位都非常支援,因此公司会应需求增长而按计划扩大产能。

基于需求殷切,林伟才说,目前也需比平时多一倍时日才能交货。

原定扩产如期进行

林伟才表示,原定产能扩展如期进行,预期2020至2021年新增150生产线和177亿个手套,到2021年杪总共有861条生产线,每年新增911亿个手套。

他说,已接手子公司Aspion私人有限公司一年半,预期占其业务10%的公司可渐入佳境,其余90%业务向好。

https://www.sinchew.com.my/content/content_2241839.html

第三季成本跌需求增 顶级手套赚幅料扩30%

2020年3月27日
林伟才

(吉隆坡26日讯)2019冠状病毒病带动手套需求,顶级手套(TOPGLOV,7113,主板保健股)认为,随着产品平均售价与产能逐渐提升,2020财年第三季的赚幅能增加20至30%之间。

执行主席丹斯里林伟才今日在最新业绩的电话汇报会上指,产品均价主要胥视供需。目前需求因冠病强劲,且原料成本短期内维持低价,对顶级手套有利。

执行董事林将源补充,在A型流感(H1N1)爆发的2009到2010年期间,手套需求增长了29%,然而2019冠状病毒病疫情比当年更加严重,因此估计此次需求激增更胜当年。

“冠病疫情更加严重,多国实施封锁举措,手套需求高于当年的流感。”

林伟才透露,在冠病肆虐之际,手套订单已经超过公司产能,同时,交货期也倍增至120天左右;正常交货期为30天到60天。

“我们看到多国政府直接向市场沟通及订购手套。我们现在已经接获到第三季的订单,生产时间表已安排到8月。同时,预计下半财年销售营收还会更高。”

他解释,这是因为产能扩展计划安排得当,期间会陆续提高产能,应对全球激增的需求。

逐月起价约3

此外,顶级手套计划未来数月会逐渐提高产品平均售价,月幅度为3%至3.5%不等。

他说:“因此,售价在未来3个月大约会涨10%,4个月涨幅约为14%。”

同时,他估计公司下半财年赚幅,应能提升20%到40%之间。

林将源指,公司手套产品次季赚幅表现有所改善,主要归功于原料成本走低,及效率与厂房使用率改善。

诉讼和解金抵商誉减值

子公司Aspion次季产量及产品售价走高,且销量按季增长,推动上半财年净利报1270万令吉,相当于2019财年全年净利的1.25倍。

另外,他称近期从与Aspion卖家诉讼案达成和解,所获得的2亿4500万令吉的赔偿金,将用来抵消商誉减值。

另一方面,林伟才近日一口气买入林木生集团(LBS,5789,主板产业股)6.81%股权,崛起为集团大股东。

他指此举属于个人投资,与公司业务没有关系,不愿多谈。

上半年北美销量跌

按地区来看,顶级手套上半年在北美销量,按年走跌8.4%。

林伟才解释,这是因为北美销量上财年同时期处于贸易战期间,商家担心供应链中断,导致商家当时大幅采购,因此货源充足,无需进行采购。

但若放眼亚洲市场,日本上半财年销量大幅提升20.2%,因为原定今年7月在当地举办的奥运会激励需求。

另外,除日本外亚洲地区,上半财年销量也录得13.5%增幅;东欧市场销量年起16.1%,而西欧市场小滑0.7%。

不减工厂人手

我国从上周三(18日)开始落实行动管控政策,大部分商业活动必须停止,仅攸关民生的基本服务行业可继续营运。

同时,有消息指作为防范措施之一,本地手套厂在此期间,只能动用一半的劳力来运作。

林伟才解释,公司生产相关部门仍旧全力运作,努力满足市场现阶段对手套的需求。

他说:“只有非关键部门,如办公室的员工,仅留少数人在公司工作,其余在家作业。因此,我们的产出没有问题。”

至于原料供应链的中断,他表示目前多家供应商,近日获准复工。

“一些包装原料可能有受到影响,不过我们手上还有一些库存。”

该公司近期将与相关当局会面,并会向后者透露当前市场手套需求的迫切,相信当局会支持该领域,尽快让相关供应链恢复。

另外,林伟才称公司先前安排的扩展计划,不会受到行动管控政策影响,将按部就班进行。

该公司计划今明两年,将分别提升年产能82亿及95亿只,合计177亿只。

闭市时,顶级手套平盘挂收,报6.20令吉,成交量868万3800股。

譚新強:歷史新分界:B.C.(Before Corona)屬美國 A.C.(After)屬誰?

文章日期:2020年3月27日

【明報專訊】著名《紐約時報》專欄作家 Thomas Friedman最近寫了一篇文章:《Our New Historical Divide: B.C. and A.C. - the World Before Corona and the World After》。可能有點誇張,但標題非常吸睛。文章內容反而不算突出,只指出因全球一體化和交通發達,所以疫症能在短短數個月內蔓延至全球,感染人數亦以幾何級數上升。然後他的觀察是美國社會文化屬於loose(鬆),東方社會如中國內地、新加坡和香港,因曾經歷無數次災難,所以文化屬於tight(緊),但「緊」文化就反而對處理疫情有幫助。所以他建議「收緊」美國文化,同時政府亦需增加對國人的同情心,以大型財政方案刺激經濟,同舟共濟,共渡時艱。

美國國會即將通過一個2萬億美元緊急經濟援助方案,規模之大,前所未有。加上之前聯儲局的緊急減息和各種unconventional(非常規)流動性提供方案,總額可能高達6萬億美元!

一如所料,貨幣政策已成為一種逐漸失效的「舊藥」,即使息口減至零,重啟無限QE,甚至直接購置投資級別企業債,雖托不起股巿,但對保持債市和銀行系統流動性,當然有頗大作用。財政政策這粒藥較有新鮮感,所以暫時對刺激股巿較有效。方案包羅萬有,包括直接向家庭派錢,但奇怪地,收入愈高,派得愈多!更多錢將放在援助多個行業,包括航空、郵輪、酒店、餐飲等等,細節尚未出來,主要目的是保就業,貸款給企業,條件是不可大幅裁員,不可回購股票,亦限制高管薪酬。當然亦有部分錢將放在擴大各種社會福利,和至為重要的醫療預算,但為數恐怕仍有不足。但無論刺激多大,短期內失業人數仍將急升數百萬。

每個政策都有副作用

這個世界沒有免費午餐,每個政策都有副作用,問題只在權衡輕重,得到的效果,是否值得付出的代價。極端的貨幣政策,長遠下來,會否動搖全球投資者對美元和美債的信心?巨型的財政方案,將把今年原來已高達1萬億美元的財赤,最少再翻倍至2萬億以上!長期下去,情况愈來愈日本化,債台過高,即使不破產,都可導致結構性低利率、低通脹和低增長。

歸根究柢,這是一場全球健康危機,並非金融危機(暫時),所以最重要還是要看每個主要地區的處理疫症方法和成績。最肯定一點,在這次嚴格考試,沒有任何地區拿滿分。中國起步可能有點慢,但COVID-19確比SARS的R0(基本傳染度)高不少,即使更早把武漢封城,能否像對付SARS一樣,完全消滅病毒,不易下結論。不少亞洲其他地區,包括日本、韓國、新加坡,以至印度,都受到一些讚許,但即使第一波疫情稍為控制得好一點,仍然不可鬆懈,因為有迹象不用等到秋季或明年,英美回來的人已帶來第二波衝擊!多個南半球地區,尤其非洲的疫情已在升溫,值得關注,因為更確保這場pandemic(大流行),將演變為一個endemic——每年捲土重來的風土病。

歐洲方面,意大利和西班牙的慘况,目不忍睹。兩國的死亡人數都已超過中國,意大利的CFR已到10%,比當年SARS的9.5%更高,怎說都不可能把COVID-19當作流感吧!當然如能進行大規模隨機測試,會準確一點計算到IFR,理論仍必低於CFR不少。英國已開始推銷大規模自家測試裝備,目的就是準確推算感染率。牛津理論傳染病學家Sunetra Gupta發表研究,估計英國的感染率或已高達50%(不太可能,測試結果仍不到10%呈陽性)。如屬實,其實是天大「喜訊」,即是早前的秘密「疫症派對」政策已成功,很多人已擁有免疫力,可以復工。但這政策極不負責任,甚至不人道,等同蓄意感染了大量抵抗力較弱的老人家和長期病患者,並把病毒出口到全球!

有些人盯着意大利數據,當近日見到新增個案見頂稍有回落,就鬆口氣變得樂觀。但我提醒大家兩點,第一,西班牙已成為下一個重災區,法國、英國,甚至瑞士和很多其他國家,即使全都執行了各種嚴格隔離政策,不幸歐洲疫情仍在升溫。第二,差如意大利,確診個案的人口比例,仍只有0.12%,而多次提到過的HIT(Herd Immunity Threshold)群體免疫臨界點,估計高達40%至70%!即使真實感染率比確診高10倍,也無非1.2%,距離HIT仍甚遠。所以即使出現第一個峰頂,怎保證不會出現第二個更高的峰頂?

特朗普缺危機意識

美國的疫情,已成為全球最嚴重的熱點。即使特朗普不停自我稱讚,自誇在一月底停止中國航班是超明智之舉,後來把歐洲都停了,對疫情有很大幫助。但這做法真的減少了受感染和死亡人數嗎?事實已證明他講的一切都是信口開河的謊言和空話。即使一月已停止中國航班,但仍沒有為疫情作出任何準備。最差是特朗普根本沒有任何危機意識,到今天仍不停自我解脫說誰也想不到疫情這麼嚴重,能傳到超過150個國家,證明他連最基本的exponential power(指數增長)的數學概念都沒有。本以為他也在玩「疫症派對」的險著,但後來才發現他真的甚麼都不懂!

所以美國既沒有有效隔離和尋找源頭政策,最初更缺乏測試儀器,所以初時極少測試、更沒有增購保護衣物和呼吸器等緊急醫療設備。到了今日,測試增加了,加州、紐約、伊利諾和愈來愈多的州份都已進行封城,全國經濟接近前何未見的停擺,但可惜今次亡羊補牢,似乎晚矣!

美國的確診個案已近7萬,死亡人數已過千,但幸而CFR仍只約1.5%。紐約市的情况最令人擔心,人口和面積跟香港相差無幾,但確診個案已超過3萬,死亡人數近300,比香港當年SARS的死亡人數還要高!看到此情此景,實在非常痛心,我曾在紐約地區居住多年,亦經常去公幹,當地極多朋友,現在非常替他們擔心。

除紐約外,另有12個州的個案已過千,Louisiana更已成為全球增長最快的疫區!每100萬人,美國的感染率已達207人,比中國的56高出近4倍!很多專家的基本預測是美國總案例將達20萬,感染率將接近歐洲。最近且有迹象美國疫情轉差,病人數目或將遠超此數,只希望醫療系統能夠應付。

在這情况下,特朗普心又慌了,擔心經濟,所以反說打算在復活節前宣布美國重新開放和復工,亦即漠視Fauci和其他專家的意見!我上周已說明,到最後,人類必須接受與此病毒並存的現實,但最好如中國般,在大致上控制疫情後才陸續復工。如美國到4月中疫情仍在擴散和升溫,公共安全和政治上,特朗普又怎可執意宣布復工?

如疫情控制不了,無論財政和貨幣援助規模多大,仍救不了經濟。特朗普整天怨天尤人,很不成熟地說一個月前美國經濟前所未有的好,全民就業,經濟第一,遠比中國大,怎可能聽醫生一句話,就無限長期停頓經濟!我明白他的焦急,但可惜情况強於人,不用說想當年,連想當月都是沒用的。

大摩最新的預測,非常恐怖,預測美國第二季度的GDP將下跌30.1%,比1930年代大蕭條更厲害!經濟師當然對下半年較樂觀,希望疫情將隨着夏季來臨而消失,經濟將急速反彈,但全年仍將收縮2.3%。我也希望是這樣,但擔心疫情將拖一段頗長時間。

疫情中沒有贏家,所有人都受影響。大摩亦預測中國第一季度GDP下跌5%,然後第二季度反彈1.5%,全年增長仍有3%,我亦覺得有點太樂觀。

中美GDP或拉近

但重點在那裏?請大家小心,討論多年的修昔底德陷阱可能出現變數。如大摩等專家的預測準確,亦即是說在今年第二季度,美國和中國的nominal(名義) GDP,將前所未有地接近!以PPP GDP計算,中國早在2013年已超越。以年化計算,再簡單假設中國較高的通脹將抵消美元升值,美國去年名義GDP約21.7萬億,中國約14.3萬億,今年第二季,美國年化名義GDP將跌至約15.2萬億,中國則將升至約14.5萬億,相差不到5%!當然若以全年計,大概率差距仍將有超過四成,除非疫情揮之不去,美國無法全面復工。當然要指出美國人均GDP仍是中國5倍多,核武數量則是中國的20倍,更添風險。

但無論如何,說回到B.C./A.C.的歷史分水嶺,感覺上,這次疫情,中國受傷也很重,但或許亦是另一次彎道超車的機會。本來B.C.前,中國經濟規模超越美國,需時可能十年,但在A.C.後,這個時間會否大幅縮短,或者不到5年,甚至更短?美國經濟近70%為消費,即是服務業,亦即是最受疫症影響的部分。中國經濟也受嚴重打擊,尤其進出口貿易和製造業,初期面對supply shock(供應震盪),到現時逐漸復工,又面對全球的demand shock(需求震盪)。但幸而中國經濟佔比最大的仍是投資,約50%,消費則只佔40%。中國的主要刺激方案仍未出台,保守一點,先看清楚,保留實力是好事,希望續以減稅降費,刺激消費為主導,再加以適量的減息降準,和5G跟醫療為主的基建投資。

這次疫情亦將影響A.C.未來的中美貿易關係。本來今年將進行第二階段貿易談判,重點將針對中國的工業政策和補貼國企問題。但如A.C.後,美國大量企業受政府拯救甚至國有化,有人估計或將高達GDP的25%,那麼美國憑甚麼批評華為?到時波音可能已成為國企(暫時仍抗拒)!

即使特朗普連任,不用選上Sanders,美國經濟制度經已嚴重往左轉,資本主義名存實亡,差不多連MMT都用上了,還不是已變成社會主義!

19世紀末,美國經濟規模開始超越英國,但以英鎊為全球儲備貨幣本位的情形仍未立刻改變。再要等50年,Bretton Woods制度成立後,英國才勉強把英鎊本位的寶座拱手相讓給掛鈎黃金的美元,其間英國著名經濟學家John Maynard Keynes,還跟美國財政官員Harry Dexter White有一番龍爭虎鬥。但請大家更需留意一點,美國超越英國後,美元正式取代英鎊之間的50年,亦正是人類史上最動盪的時期,包括兩次世界大戰!貨幣政策的不平衡和不協調,被認為是誘因之一。

不少人已把今次全球抗疫形容為一場另類世界大戰,亦不為過。只希望所有人看清楚,共同敵人為病毒(和氣候變化),而並不是某一個國家或某一個族群。但願A.C.的世界,比B.C.更和平!

(中環資產持有波音的財務權益)
中環資產投資行政總裁
[譚新強 中環新譚]

Thursday, March 26, 2020

Hartalega - Acquisition of Land in Banting for NGC2.0

Hartalega’s entered into a SPA to acquire 95.1 acres of land in Banting from Bonus Essential Sdn Bhd for RM263m. The deal is expected to be completed by 2H22. We are positive on the acquisition. The site which will be NGC2.0 will hold 7 plants with a total of 82 lines, that would produce c.32bn pieces of gloves per annum (+73.9% of Hartalega’s total capacity). Construction target is set to begin in 2021, while targeted commissioning of first line would be in 2022. Earnings growth is expected to come in 2023. Our proforma net gearing ratio is expected to increase to 12.6% post acquisition, from 2% in 3QFY20. Maintain forecasts. We reiterate our HOLD call with unchanged TP of RM5.99. Our TP is derived from FY20 EPS and pegged to PE of 42x.
NEWSBREAK

Hartalega announced it entered into a Sale and Purchase Agreement (SPA) with Bonus Essential Sdn Bhd (BESB) to acquire 95.1 acres of land for a total cash consideration of RM263m. BESB, a wholly subsidiary of Limbungan Emas Sdn Bhd deals with property investment and property development. The deal is expected to be completed by 2H22 subject to conditions as stipulated in the SPA.

The land is located in Banting, under Mukim Tanjong Duabelas, Daerah Kuala Langat, Selangor. The 95.1 acres of land is to be subdivided from a piece of freehold land of 201.1 acres. The land which is of agricultural title would be converted to heavy industrial title by BESB. Apart from that, main infrastructures which includes earth filing works, access road, two bridges and other utilities are to be completed by BESB.
HLIB’s VIEW

Positive on the news. We are positive on the acquisition. This acquisition gives light to Hartalega’s earnings growth post Next Generation Integrated Glove Manufacturing Complex (NGC) in Sepang (scheduled to be completed in 2021). The acquisition will enable Hartalega to progressively expand its capacity to meet the rising global glove demand. The site which will be NGC2.0 is strategically located near to its existing NGC in Sepang. It is within close proximity to the West Coast Expressway interchange in Banting, surrounded by nearby rapid industrial and housing development as well as flat topography. The land acquisition is scheduled for completion by 2H22.

NGC2.0. The new complex will hold 7 plants with a total of 82 lines, that would produce approximately 32bn pieces of gloves per annum (+73.9% to Hartalega’s total capacity). Construction target is set to begin in 2021, while the targeted commissioning of the first line would be in 2022. Full completion of NGC2.0 is expected to be in 2029. That being said, earnings growth is expected to come in earliest in 2023. We also expect the margins to be similar to NGC Sepang, due to similar number of lines with similar line speed.

Gearing. Hartalega intends to fund the proposed acquisition via internally generated funds and/or bank borrowings. Our proforma net gearing ratio is expected to increase to 12.6% post acquisition (from 2% as at 3QFY20).

Forecast. Maintain. The earnings contributions from NGC2.0 is beyond our forecast horizon at this juncture.

Maintain HOLD, TP: RM5.99. We maintain our HOLD call with unchanged TP of RM5.99. Our TP is derived from FY20 EPS and pegged to PE of 42x (+1.5SD).

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 26 Mar 2020

EMS companies face more downside from prolonged production halt

ANALYST REPORTS
Thursday, 26 Mar 20209:33 AM MYT

KUALA LUMPUR: Electronics manufacturing services companies (EMS) are likely to see further earnings erosion following the extension of the government's movement control order, which has halted production at their facilities.

According to Affin Hwang Capital research, a 28-day factory closure would negatively impact EMS players' earnings as they would continue to incur fixed costs such as rental and staff costs.

"Even if they are allowed to resume production, they are required to operate at a minimal workforce (capped at 50%), according to National Security Council (NSC). This would result in lower production and adversely impact their earnings," it added.

Among stocks under its coverage, Affin Hwang has sell calls on ATA (55 sen) and VS Industry (60 sen), and downgraded MTAG (20 sen) to a sell call.

It maintained its underweight call on the sector, having slashed its earnings forecasts on the respective stocks by 9% to 22%, in addition to an earlier reduction of 16% to 36%.

"We believe the weak consumer sentiment and global economic slowdown are likely to dampen discretionary spending, and the EMS players are not likely to be spared as they are mainly involved in the manufacturing of consumer products such as household appliances, coffee machines and pool cleaners," it said.

The EMS players are awaiting the Ministry of International Trade and Industry's clarification and approval to resume production as it is not clear which types of E&E are allowed to operate.

While Affin Hwang remains positive on the sector's long-term outlook, it cautioned that any further extension of the MCO would further limit production and pose downside risk to the already weak earnings for 2020.

Wednesday, March 25, 2020

Kenanga IB Research raises target price for Hartalega to RM8

theedgemarkets.com/theedgemarkets.com
March 25, 2020 08:50 am +08

KUALA LUMPUR (March 25): Kenanga IB Research has maintained its “Outperform” rating on Hartalega Holdings Bhd at RM6.60 with a higher target price (TP) of RM8 (from RM7) and said year-to-date, the stock is up 21%.

In a note today, the research house said it was still positive and remain bullish on Hartalega’s growth prospect going forward, underpinned by demand uptick with past two quarterly results pointing towards a strong volume growth.

Kenanga said based on its analysis, it expects nitrile gloves to continue growing and grabbing market share from latex gloves.

It said the growth in nitrile segment is evident.

“For illustration purposes, going forward, assuming nitrile:latex breakdown of 80:20 (presently is 67:37) and based on estimated global demand of 324 billion pieces in 2020 (forecast for 2019 is 300 billion pieces and assuming 8% growth rate in 2020), this implies nitrile growth rate of 30% or an additional 51 billion pieces from switch to nitrile gloves.

“Ceteris paribus, a 1% increase in volume sales will raise our FY21E net profit by 1.2%.

“The lacklustre demand in the past 12 months coupled with the importance of higher standards of hygiene reinforced by the outbreak of Covid-19 is expected to ramp up re-stocking activities.

“TP is raised from RM7.00 to RM8.00 based on 48x FY21E EPS. Reiterate Outperform,” it said.

Stay home. Get the news from theedgemarkets.com.

Tuesday, March 24, 2020

BANKING SECTOR DOWNGRADE BY CITIBANK - 23 MARCH 2020

 

【全球大抗疫】股灾时期估值诱人 20大抗跌好股值买

2020年3月24日

(吉隆坡23日讯)MIDF投资研究分析员指出,疫情风暴股灾让许多公司股价大跌,如今估值相当吸引,并建议买入20个抗跌和基本面强劲的好股。

MIDF分析员在报告中点出,股市在经历连续两周的大抛售后,一些股项的估值也变得十分吸引。

“股市仍然受困于谨慎的投资情绪,但大抛售却已让这些股的价值浮现。只要疫情开始受控,股市料可缓升。”

分析员估计,全球疫情估计可在未来4至6个月内受控,与中国控疫所需时间相似,同时也与2003年时全球非典型肺炎疫情受控时间一致。

选高周息率股

因此,虽然股市动荡,分析员认为还是有大把的投资机会,但投资者必须慎选公司,要瞄准基本面和盈利稳健的个股。

“同时也可搭配投资在高周息率的公司,这将有助缓解下行风险。”

无论如何,分析员提醒,虽然股市终究会复苏,但目前还是会极为波动。

“5%或以上的波动已成为常态。这对于投资者来说是很危险的状况。”

MIDF看好富时隆综指会在末季回到底线目标1480点,并相信随着各地政府提供额外的财务流动和支出,如欧美国家重推的量化宽松,全球股市终会复苏。

MIDF 投资研究20大首选股:
1)英美烟草(BAT,4162,主板消费股)

●目标价:16令吉

新政府权衡利弊后,可能会减少香烟公司的税务负担;另外,周息率高过10%,同时母公司有可能趁低价进行私有化。

2)发马(PHARMA,7081,主板保健股)

●目标价:2.35令吉

经营权及非政府合约业务的销售估计增长强劲。尤其是眼前的危机,会让政府更加依赖发马在医疗用品供应上的支持。

3)马矿业(MMCCORP,2194,主板交通与物流股)

●目标价:1.27令吉

一些中国港口如阳山和上海港口的吞吐量飙涨,而马矿业旗下的丹绒柏勒巴斯港口(PTP)处理许多亚洲贸易往来船运。

4)联昌国际(CIMB,1023,主板金融股)

●目标价:5.70令吉

股价从52周高位下挫33.3%。一级资本比例(CET1)强稳,加上身为“大到不能倒”的国内系统重要性银行(D-SIB)之一,应该可以应付眼前的盈利和资产素质风险。

5)Edgenta(EDGENTA,1368,主板工业股)

●目标价:3.22令吉

医疗经营权业务将受益于疫情。处于净现金状态,今年估计可派息15.6仙,周息率高达7.6%。

6)马银行(MAYBANK,1155,主板金融股)

●目标价:9.55令吉

与联昌国际一样,同为D-SIB之一。可能派发全现金股息,周息率超过7%。

7)联熹控股(RANHILL,5272,主板公用事业股)

●目标价:1.45令吉

柔佛水务业务支撑,盈利和派息料能维持稳定。目前股价估值相等于2021财年的9倍本益比,并低于实际资产值的10%。

8)BIMB控股(BIMB,5258,主板金融股)

●目标价:5.05令吉

资产及盈利稳健。总贷款减值比率低至0.86%,CET1和总资本比例则分别高达14.2%和18.6%。

9)回教实业投资(ALAQAR,5116,主板产业信托)

●目标价:1.52令吉

唯一纯由医疗资产组成的产托,盈利主要来自柔佛医药保健(KPJ,5878,主板保健股)的医院,且租金收入会面年稳定上调。

10)杨忠礼电力(YTLPOWR,6742,主板公用事业股)

●目标价:70仙

周息率高达7.6%,有英国Wessex水务业务支撑。年初至今股价已大跌,目前估值相等于2021财年本益比的9倍。

11)大众银行(PBBANK,1295,主板金融股)

●目标价:19令吉

另一家D-SIB。资产素质全行最强,总减值贷款比率近有0.5%。

12)西港控股(WPRTS,5246,主板交通与物流股)

●目标价:4.38令吉

近期内中国港口的货柜吞吐量飙升,对大马港口有利。处理的船运有超过60%都是来自亚洲区域的贸易往来。

13)马国际船务(MISC,3816,主板交通和物流股)

●目标价:8.11令吉

受益于原油供应过剩。即使在2014年油价崩盘时,股价依然强劲,并且目前周息率已达4%。

14)国家能源(TENAGA,5347,主板公用事业股)

●目标价:13.80令吉

中短期内的资本开销减少,让派息率应会至少接近60%。目前2021财年周息率已达4.1%,并且2020财年本益比仅12倍,比起综指的15.5倍要低23%。

15)大马天然气(GASMSIA,5209,主板公用事业股)

●目标价:3.11令吉

油气下游业者,可受益于近期能源委员会推行的第三方准入(TPA)。周息率达4%。

16)亚通(AXIATA,6888,主板电信与媒体股)

●目标价:4.77令吉

行动管控令期间,网络数据使用量和拨电通话数次会增加,手机电信业者受益。股价经历合并失败大跌后,价值浮现。

17)MyEG(MyEG,0138,主板科技股)

●目标价:1.49令吉

疫情会激励线上政府服务的使用率提升。另外,正在竞标价值10亿令吉的海外签证系统和15亿令吉的国家综合移民系统(NIIS),有机会凭良好营运记录拿下其中之一。

18)顶级手套(TOPGLOV,7113,主板保健股)

●目标价:6.63令吉

为全球规模最大的手套业者,势必可受益于疫情。另外,油价暴跌让丁腈成本走低,也有利。

19)戴乐集团(DIALOG,7277,主板能源股)

●目标价:3.83令吉

上游业务受油价大跌影响,但低油价环境有利原油存储业务。

20) IHH医疗保健集团(IHH,5225,主板保健股)

●目标价:6.45令吉

亚洲最大的私人医疗集团。虽然主打高档医疗服务市场,会受到疫情冲击(因为医疗旅游业的客户会暂缓非紧急的行程),但相信该集团具备实力应付挑战,并通过脱售非核心资产套现减债。

https://www.enanyang.my/news/20200324/%e3%80%90%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83%e5%a4%a7%e6%8a%97%e7%96%ab%e3%80%91%e8%82%a1%e7%81%be%e6%97%b6%e6%9c%9f%e4%bc%b0%e5%80%bc%e8%af%b1%e4%ba%ba-br20%e5%a4%a7%e6%8a%97%e8%b7%8c%e5%a5%bd%e8%82%a1/

Plantation stocks now ‘absurdly cheap’

PLANTATIONS
Tuesday, 24 Mar 2020

TA Securities rated most stocks in the sector as “buy”. These included Sime Darby Plantation Bhd, Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd, FGV Holdings Bhd, IJM Plantations Bhd, TSH Resources Bhd, and United Malacca Bhd as well as Singapore-listed Wilmar International Ltd.

PETALING JAYA: Heavily battered along with the broader market, plantation stocks on Bursa Malaysia now appear attractive in terms of valuation.

In its report yesterday, TA Securities Research termed the sector “absurdly cheap, ” with stocks under its coverage trading at 9.3 to 22.2 times estimated earnings for 2021.

“The fear of Covid-19 pandemic and global recession have caused significant sell-off in the market, including plantation stocks. Most of the plantation stocks are now at attractive valuations after the recent massive plunge, ” the brokerage wrote.

Overall, Bursa Malaysia’s palm oil plantation index has been trending down since the start of 2020, and after a relatively strong rally in the second half of 2019.

Year-to-date, the benchmark index for plantation stocks has fallen by about 26%.

Reiterating its “overweight” recommendation on the plantation sector, TA Securities rated most stocks in the sector as “buy”.

These included Sime Darby Plantation Bhd, Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd, FGV Holdings Bhd, IJM PLANTATIONS BHD, TSH RESOURCES BHD, and UNITED MALACCA BHD as well as Singapore-listed Wilmar International Ltd.

The only counter still under its “sell” call was IOI Corp Bhd.

Despite the ongoing headwinds, TA Securities maintained its average crude palm oil (CPO) price forecast at RM2,400 per tonne for 2020.

“We believe when the Covid-19 epidemic wears off, the consumption of edible oil will resume and this would boost palm oil demand and support CPO prices, ” it reasoned.

It noted the twin impact of the collapse in crude oil price and the spread of the Covid-19 has dragged CPO April-June futures contract down 10.8%-11.1% month-on-month to RM2,288 to RM2,338 per tonne.

Meanwhile, with Ramadan starting on April 24, TA Securities said it would expect Malaysia to see increased in export demand for palm oil.

“The effect of Ramadan restocking is expected to increase Malaysia’s palm oil exports in March and April to some extent.

“Note that India relies on imports to meet about 70% of its total vegetable oil consumption and palm oil is the largest consumed edible oil in India, ” it explained.

India has been the biggest palm oil buyer for Malaysia since 2014, accounting for nearly a quarter of Malaysia’s total palm oil exports in 2019.

TA Securities noted India’s total stock of edible oils had decreased to a five-year low of 1.53 million tonnes as at March 1, citing data from the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

Based on India’s monthly consumption of 1.9 million tonnes, the current stock level would suggest India would be running out of palm oil by end-March if there were no significant imports of the commodity by this month.

“This uncomfortable stock level makes us believe that Malaysia’s palm oil exports to India will grow significantly, despite the negative impact of Covid-19 on palm oil consumption in India, ” TA Securities said.

“However, we may only see the significant increase in April as Malaysia went into lockdown for 14 days from March 18-31 due to the spreading of Covid-19.

“This is expected to disrupt the total palm oil supply chain and affect the export performance, ” it added.

Quick take: LKL jumps 35% in active trade

STOCK ON THE MOVE
Tuesday, 24 Mar 20209:11 AM MYT

KUALA LUMPUR: Shares in LKL International Bhd jumped 35% in active trade on Tuesday morning after the company said it was set to fulfil increasing medical equipment demand.

The medical/healthcare beds, peripherals and accessories provider surged 35%, or 3.5 sen to 13.5 sen. It is currently one of the most actively traded counters on Bursa Malaysia with 2.8 million shares done.

Managing director Lim Kon Lian said the group was ready to fulfil the high demand for medical equipment from hospitals in Malaysia and foreign countries in their battle against Covid-19.

He said LKL has received numerous requests for essential medical equipment from hospitals in various states across Malaysia, as well as from foreign countries, including Italy, Maldives, Mauritius, Brunei, and Bangladesh.

“This includes an urgent enquiry of 50,000 hospital beds to be supplied within a five-month time frame to one of the export markets, indicating the high-level urgency to expand their capacity,” he said in a statement.

Earlier, Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin said the government would channel an additional allocation of RM500mil to the Health Ministry to support its efforts to manage the Covid-19 pandemic nationwide.

It would be for the purchase of various items, including ventilators and Intensive Care Unit (ICU) equipment, additional personal protective equipment (PPE) for medical personnel, as well as laboratory requirements for the screening of COVID-19.

Monday, March 23, 2020

Affin Hwang Capital starts coverage on Electronics Manufacturing Services sector

theedgemarkets.com/theedgemarkets.com
October 10, 2019 08:50 am +08

KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 10): Affin Hwang Capital Research has initiatiated coverage on the Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS) sector with an “Overweight” rating.

In a note today, the research house said the sector is not merely a beneficiary from the trade diversion but also set to ride on the rapid expansion of their common key customer - a global renowned household appliances brand.

“ATA IMS Bhd (Buy, TP: RM1.80), is our preferred sector pick, as we expect the group to continue charting strong growth on the back of capacity expansion coupled with margin enhancement from further vertical integration.

“We also initiate coverage on V.S. Industry Bhd (Buy, TP: RM1.60) given the group’s diversified customer mix and strong ability in securing new contracts, which makes it a prime beneficiary of trade diversion.

“Elsewhere, we highlight 3 other companies, namely SKP Resources Bhd (Non-rated, RM1.08), i-Stone Group Bhd (Non-rated, RM0.18) and MTAG Group Bhd(Non-rated, RM0.42), which form part of the "D" ecosystem,” it said.

潘迪藍:償付危機還是流動性危機?

文章日期:2020年3月23日

【明報專訊】股市崩潰,債券孳息率上升,兼且息差擴大,金價下跌。最近幾日,幾乎沒有什麼投資工具可以避險。當市場表現不佳時,通常需要深呼吸,以及仔細思考清楚,我們面臨的是償付危機,還是流動性危機。投資者的集體回憶現時都被償付能力危機主導。1997年的亞洲金融風暴涉及亞洲大型企業和中介機構的償債能力。它們借入美元資金,來投資在該國貨幣,所以一旦該國貨幣兌美元的匯率貶值,它們就會無力還債。

2008年的金融海嘯的重點,是西方銀行的償付問題。它們好像假設了房地產只升不跌,不斷以低門檻批出按揭貸款。結果,房地產市場真的下跌,不少在高位入市買樓的人甚至斷供。因此,如果我們現時面臨的是償付危機,哪麼這場償付危機會在那裏出現?

內地債市股市穩 不似償付黑洞

(1)中國大陸?今年頭兩個月,內地的社會消費品零售總額按年下跌20.5%,當中汽車類消費品零售總額按年下跌82%,規模以上整體工業增加值按年下跌13.5%。但人民幣仍然非常穩定,內地的債券市場一直是穩定的避風港。至於內地股市,今年至今的表現更跑贏其他地區的股市。因此,內地看來不太可能成為償付能力的黑洞。

(2)能源板塊?能源板塊確實有些問題。現時,能源板塊在MSCI環球指數中的比重還不到4%,乃歷來最低。高收益能源債券的違約風險更大增(即使在油價近日大挫之前,美國能源企業的高收益債券的違約率已高達13.4%)。當石油價格跌至每桶30美元或以下時,將會有很多美國能源企業破產。這些破產事件是否會將資產從脆弱的手(過度槓桿的小型勘探與生產油企)轉移到強手(大型石油企業)?銀行的資產負債表會否因而要作出重大減值?

第一點看來是可能的。第二點就不太可能了。這部分是因為,美國的頁岩油投資高峰期是出現在2010年至2014年間,那時美國銀行業才剛剛從2008年爆發的金融海嘯中走出來,它們向能源板塊提供的貸款相對有限。

能源航空旅遊 不致影響銀行負債表

(3)航空公司和旅遊業?航空公司正備受考驗。酒店、餐廳、賭場和郵輪公司也是如此。在這方面,不同國家的政策可能會大相逕庭。有些國家的政府很可能會通過貸款、補貼甚至完全國有化,來挽救它們的旗艦航空公司(估計意大利政府為了拯救意大利航空公司Alitalia,已累積花費至少74億歐元或以上)對於股東來說,這可能不是一個好消息。但一般認為,航空公司的虧損不致影響到銀行的資產負債表。

對於酒店、餐廳和賭場,銀行很可能會傾向寬容,即使有些業者的情况現時已令人憂慮。但郵輪運營商則可能是另一回事。由於郵輪運營商的公眾形象不佳,以及在環境、社會及管治(ESG)方面引人質疑,銀行可能會放棄協助它們。而銀行業對郵輪板塊的貸款,看來亦不太大,並不足以對它們的帳目造成很大的影響,引發更廣泛的系統償付危機。

(4)歐盟?歐盟的銀行業在2008年至2009年的金融海嘯中避過一劫,在2012年的歐元危機中再次有驚無險。它會第三次走運嗎?有幾個歐洲國家在新冠病毒肺炎爆發之前,已經相當虛弱。例如,意大利在新冠病毒肺炎爆發之前,就已經處於另一次衰退的邊緣。至於法國,餐館老闆、旅館經營者及商店老闆在黃背心罷工抗議活動之外,已飽受退休金改革引致的罷工打擊,現在又輪到新型冠狀病毒肺炎。

由於接二連三遭受打擊,小型企業可能會完全耗盡現金儲備,整個歐洲都可能會有大批小型企業破產,這將會衝擊銀行。這就是歐洲央行長拉加德在3月12日宣布1200億歐元的額外購債計劃之後,在3月18日又再額外推出7500億歐元的緊急資產購買計劃的原因。但拉加德似乎並沒有用「採取一切必要措施」的承諾來安撫市場,而是將責任推卸給歐洲各國政府。簡而言之,歐盟再一次看來及聽來有問題。歐洲央行之後不太可能來個180度轉軚。

歐洲企業破產 衝擊銀行

當然,對於我們在金融市場上看到的瘋狂舉動的另一種解釋是,我們正生活在一個相當舊式的流動性危機之中,就好像1998年、2001年或2015年。如果真的是這樣,那麼必須承認,各國的中央銀行現在正在注入大量流動性。儘管美國聯儲局以及其他央行創紀錄地注資,有些問題仍然揮之不去──為什麼我們會看到資金錯配?為什麼這麼多企業債券甚至地方政府債券根本無人問津?為什麼貴金屬的價格會如此急劇下跌?為什麼在股市大瀉的情形下,美國和歐元區的長期國債孳息率卻一直上升?有很多可能的解釋。

首先是新的法規。在過去的危機中,投資銀行會在動盪的市場中注入流動性,並以此獲利。但是,2008年之後的監管浪潮對此作出了相當多的限制。因此,儘管金融市場在過去十年中迅速增長,但金融中介機構卻有所萎縮。這很可能就是我們現時看到的很多市場錯配的原因。

另一個原因可能是社區隔離。像大多數其他企業,金融中介機構現時須應對其工作環境中的巨變。它們有部分員工現時正在家中工作,或者在災難復原中心內工作。由於團隊分散,可以想像到,它們作出市場冒險的意願和能力將會大大降低。這可能解釋了我們看到的ETF及其相關資產之間的差異,或者企業債券市場的錯配。

第三是很多基金陷於困境。與往常一樣,當股市大瀉時,就有很多對冲基金或銀行陷於困境的謠言。無可否認,一些市場參與者將會陷入困境。(例如,歐洲銀行業的一種熱門交易,是買入被低估的墨西哥比索和墨西哥債券,但這種交易已令到很多固定收益經理率先執包袱。)現時政府債券、股票和黃金同時下跌,顯示了大筆資金已被套現。這是因為風險平價策略,還是因為槓桿量化驅動的對冲基金套現?

無論如何,驟看之下,全球股票市場大瀉,顯示我們正面臨償付能力危機。可是,這種風險很可能被誇大了。這個世界肯定會出現一些拖欠貸款問題,但這不會自動發展成債務違約問題或者廣泛的破產事件,影響到銀行體系。國際會計準則令銀行能夠區分信貸風險的短期增加以及信貸質量的長期惡化。在兩種情况下,它們必須準備的資本相差很遠。

隨着新冠病毒肺炎大流行,迫使愈來愈多企業暫時關閉,銀行將會想盡方法,容許這些企業延遲還款,或者暫時免去其利息。唯一逼使銀行從其他情况良好的借款人那裏提早追回貸款以及減值的可能性,是它自己突然損失了一些資金。這看起來不太可能。

普遍性償付能力危機出現機會低

因為銀行只倚靠兩種資金:第一種是客戶的存款,第二種是非存款類借款(批發融資)(例如同業拆借、向央行或國際金融市場借款、發行金融債券等)。現時,存款外逃的風險看來非常低(或許只有歐盟除外?)企業破產,這將會衝擊銀行同時,中央銀行正竭盡全力試圖穩定批發融資市場。因此,普遍性的償付能力危機出現的可能性較低。

這又回到我們正在經歷一場流動性危機的可能性,而且隨着新冠病毒肺炎大爆發的恐懼漸漸消退,市場將會在較為正常的經濟背景下恢復交投。屆時,那大量的新貨幣、財政和能源刺激措施,將反映在股票的價格中。「大量」可能還不足以表達,或許要用上「天量」來形容。

GaveKal Dragonomics資深經濟師
[潘迪藍 國際視野]

李順威:風險平價基金全天候沽貨

文章日期:2020年3月23日

【明報專訊】今次跌市有很多奇怪現象。雖然債券利息下降,美國市政府債券息率上升至2011年以來高位。定息工具相對價值交易全部出現問題,所有點子交易包括 futures basis、 invoice spreads、 swaps spreads、butterflies等都很波動,重現1998年及2008年時的情况。

除此之外,股市和債券市場在每天交易收市前都經常出現大波動,更重要的是股票債券出現齊升齊下跌的現象,以至發展到所有資產 (包括股票、債券、商品黃金外匯兌美元)一齊下跌的情況。傳媒的簡單解釋是逃避風險。這當然沒有錯,但是並不能解釋為什麼傳統的避險工具例如黃金、瑞士法郎、日圓甚至債券也要下跌。一個針對以上問題的答案是流動性下降。這個答案也是對的,不過究竟為什麼流動性下降?誰人沽售呢?他們為什麼沽貨這麼急呢? 而且沽售金額這麼龐大足以推低眾多資產呢? 

風險平價基金日沽百億美元股票

現在市場流傳一個說法就是今次沽售主要來自系統性基金。在過去一個月他們沽出接近4000億美元環球股票。 系統性基金包括風險平價、商品交易顧問、波幅定標等策略。而其中引發諸多問題的是風險平價基金 。

風險平價基金指數在3月11日下跌4% ,是2008年10月以來最差日子,三天之內下跌9.16%,是1998有紀錄以來最差數字。有分析風險平價基金因為股票和債券關係出現大偏差,股票表現差於10年債券接近5個標準異產,使多元資產組合出現很大的模式問題。風險平價基金出現紀錄上最差三日表現。風險平價基金多數採取高槓桿,是2005年以來的70%,2012年以來的50%。他們現在差不多需要每日沽售100億美元股票。這是近日市場沽售來源之一

風險平價是由Bridgewater的Ray Dalio 創議的投資策略 。簡單來說是將投資組合以為風險角度來分配。這個投資方法需要動用大量槓桿來追求理想回報。其中一個設計是透過持有債券來去對冲股票的風險。因為統計上,股票下跌的時候債券多數上升,所以只要持有合適的股票債券比例,便可以減少風險。這類風險平價基金自稱為全天候基金,就是什麼時候都會上升。以往一段時間風險平價基金表現也是可以,但是踏入今年三月之後就「花無百日紅,醜婦見家翁」,風險平價基金表現急轉直下。

油價戰迫使金主沽貨套現

導火線是在3月 9日沙特阿拉伯宣布石油減價戰。據說沙特阿拉伯這個大金主需要沽貨套現應付油價下挫。風險平價基金於是需要減持,由於他們手頭上同時持有股票及債券,為了減低槓桿和套現便被迫同時沽售兩者。於是,由3月10日開始,股票和債券(長期債券)便出現同時下跌的奇怪現象。 在七天之內,標普500下跌16%, 10年期債券息率倍升。一些風險平價基金在一個月之內資產值下跌40%。風險平價基金不單止要沽售股票和債券,也要出售其他資產,包括商品和外匯,因此商品價格普遍下降,由黃金到黃銅白銀白金鈀金全部下跌。而且這些風險平價基金和大部分槓桿交易所掛牌基金波幅定標基金都傾向在收市前作對沖或者調整,因此就造成收市前的特別波動。

市場流傳,今次基金字母開頭A、B、C、M、T等遇到大虧損及龐大贖回(不過亦有市場消息指BCM等大基金有很多仍然很賺錢的地方,因此並不出現嚴重虧損問題,事實上截至3月12日時他們有的虧損也只是2%至3%而已;不過風險平價策略出現虧損應該是沒有疑問,因此引發所有資產市場的拋售。沽家需要對手,問題是銀行莊家因為監管條例的限制,當波幅上升必需要減低風險,根本不肯接貨,而且因為要對冲對家風險 ,不單止不能提供流通性,反而要減少入市;為了保護自己更加提高了對家的借貸利息。這解釋了為何在中央銀行大幅減息之下,倫敦銀行同業拆息竟然上升。而資金緊絀也迫使銀行減少借貸。重要的是銀行並不是最水緊的一群,這樣解釋了為何聯儲局提供了5000億美元回購,但只有780億美元被使用。銀行並不需要現金,也不想借給對家,於是銀行的對家(大基金)的資金緊絀。

其中字母開頭C和M等倚靠回購融資(C本身也是市場大莊家,最近的一些報價異常細碼),但現在銀行並不像以往那樣放水,因此只得沽貨套現。而且他們的點子交易(這不同於風險平價)所持有的一些產品並不具有市場流動性,相對價值交易的盈利孖展其實很低,只是靠大槓桿來爭取盈利。現在因為拆息扯高,使到很多相對價值交易完全失控產生虧損。他們只有三個選擇: 尋求回購融資、斬倉、承受龐大損失來面對追收孖展及客戶贖回的壓力。如此這般就是這樣,全天候基金需要全天候沽貨,成為了今次資產大跌市的其中一個罪魁禍首。是耶非耶? 如是我聞。

shunwailee@hotmail.com
[李順威 牛熊共舞]

陸振球:政府入市救市 多有豐厚回報

文章日期:2020年3月23日

【明報專訊】白宮經濟顧問庫德洛(Larry Kudlow)表示,如疫情的影響持續並超出預期,美國政府的刺激計劃可能會超出1.3萬億美元的規模,更可能購入股票,援助受影響的企業,對象可能是較大型的公司股票,並指美國財政部在2008年金融海嘯後也曾向陷入困境的通用汽車注資,最終為政府帶來豐厚回報。

大家可還記得,1997年亞洲金融風暴以後,香港政府也曾以千億入巿買股抗擊大鱷,風暴過後隨即將股票分批出售,更將持有的股票成立了盈富基金(2800),最終政府也因此獲利豐厚,不過政府入巿時備受批評,而其實庫德洛也在2008年曾批評奧巴馬政府有關入市行動,是對「自由市場資本主義的攻擊」!

當年港府入巿,主要是動用外匯基金及財政儲備作「彈藥」,相對之下,美國政府可隨時印銀錢買股,不過此舉勢令貨幣發行量大增,會否埋下通脹急升的計時炸彈?或就如香港的盈富基金,當政府要出售相關的股票組合時,因供應釋放,又成了股巿反彈或回升的阻力?

最近巿場有傳言,說美國政府將疫情責任全推給中國,故特朗普才一再以Chinese Virus來稱呼新型股炎,將來或會以此來向中國索償,如中國不賠,將中國持有的美國國債作廢,若傳言屬真,不要說可能出現經濟災難,甚至因此導致兵戎相見也不是沒有可能!

明報投資及地產版資深主編
[陸振球 主編的話]
\

湯文亮:中國病毒是指鹿為馬

文章日期:2020年3月23日

【明報專訊】特朗普對於在武漢爆發的新冠肺炎病毒一向都採取輕視態度,從他在記者會日誌上可以肯定這個假設,但新冠肺炎病毒近日加速蔓延,除了意大利等多個歐洲國家受到重創之外,病毒亦由歐洲殺入美國,衝擊美國醫療系統,令到美國政府束手無策。

雖然聯儲局以減息、量寬應對疫情,但這種做法只是頭痛醫腳,對減低疫情沒有實質作用,所以,特朗普在最近幾次記者會上都表現得焦躁不安,刻意將新冠病毒改稱「中國病毒」,雖然特朗普只是話用中國病毒是指出病毒是出自中國,並沒有特別意思,但我的睇法是絕對不同,不但意義重大而且影響深遠,甚至影響美國對世界的佈局。

特朗普做法如秦朝趙高 試探盟友

秦始皇雖然統一中國,但去到二世已經唔掂,被趙高把持朝政,趙高為了確認朝廷上究竟有多少官員效忠於他,於是命隨從將一隻鹿帶上朝廷上,並硬說這是馬,如果有說不是馬的官員,趙高日後會想辦法除掉。

今日特朗普亦用這個方法測試盟友,將新冠病毒說成中國病毒,他明知道這個說法不合理,而且世衛亦早在2015年廢除病毒,病症以人名,地域,國家命名,特朗普做法與昔日趙高一樣,如果有盟友以後用中國病毒來替代新冠病毒,那些才是真正盟友,如果全世界大部分的國家都將新冠病毒稱為中國病毒,就會有機會要求中國賠償,就算屈唔到中國賠償,最低限度對特朗普競選連任沒有影響,所以,他認為這是一個有贏冇輸遊戲。

如果特朗普以這個方法要求中國賠償,我認為美國應該要求越南賠償。

冀盟友認同 有機會屈中國賠償

我近日屈在家裏睇了一套關於詹森總統在越戰時表現的影片,由開打到結束,雖然越戰是由尼克遜總統結束,但事實上詹森總統時已經開始,影片並沒有講出美國撤出越南的主要原因,連一隻字也沒有提及,就是北越用生化武器,令到不少美軍惹上頑疾,但北越的生化武器並沒有令美軍在越南死亡,而是將病毒帶回美國,令到美軍的家人受到傷害,而生化武器的名字叫「越南玫瑰」,北越將病毒種在越南少女身上,她們犧牲自己吸引美軍,將病毒傳播,最後迫使美國撤出越南。所以,當美國知道新冠肺炎病毒,已經第一時間撤僑,本來,美國有很多時間做防禦,但掉以輕心,其他盟友見到美國沒有認真看待新冠病毒,他們亦掉以輕心,造成今次環球大爆發。

其實,特朗普從各國受損害的情况來看,就應該知道誰是真正盟友,這又不妥,唔通連伊朗都係。

紀惠集團行政總裁
[湯文亮 敢說反話]

曾淵滄:自由經濟體未必受歡迎

文章日期:2020年3月23日

【明報專訊】美國有一個以推動自由經濟為己任的傳統基金會從1995年開始就編製全球各國及地區的自由經濟指數,從那時候開始至去年,香港年年拿第一,被稱為全球最自由的經濟體,今年,香港終於第一次失落世界最自由經濟體的稱號,輸給新加坡,特區政府表示失望。

不過,最自由經濟體是否就是最受老百姓歡迎?前陣子,香港不是有很多人要求特區政府出手管制口罩價格?凡價格管制,就違反自由經濟。

凡價格管制 就違反自由經濟

還有,近來全球股民多麼希望美國政府直接出手,印鈔票買股票,救一救一眾正在虧大錢的股民。

特朗普的確出手了,暫時而言,仍未直接買股票,而是買石油,他認為挽救美國的頁岩油公司在現階段最重要,石油價格大跌,已跌至低於美國頁石油的開採成本價,再不出手相救,頁岩油公司破產,大量頁岩油公司發行的高息債券勢必造成另一場金融風暴。

於是美國政府宣布購買1000萬桶石油,石油價格回升,股市也受到支持回升。相信除了美國之外,中國政府也正在大舉購買石油,只是低調進行而已,希望能繼續以低價買入石油。對中國而言,石油價格下跌是好事,中國是石油消耗大國,中海油(0883)、中石油(0857)、中石化(0386)所開採的石油根本不夠自己用。

現在唯一的問題是美國與中國大手買了石油,又馬上用不掉,那麼該收在那裏?特朗普說﹕「注滿石油庫」,美國是有大量的石油儲備庫,但也會有注滿的一天,再買也沒地方裝,中國也正在建石油儲備系統,不過,規模有多大,沒人知道。

近期全球股市崩盤 源頭是美國

油價回升也使到港股回升,3月20日,恒指回升1096點,收市報22805點。不過,過去兩星期,港股也有過數次大反彈,但反彈之後再跌的經歷,因此,如此反彈並不會立即挽回股民的信心,畢竟,造成近幾個星期全球股市崩盤的源頭是美國,是美股超大型牛市爆破所引起的,最終還得等美國股市回升,回升的可能性有二:一是美國政府直接出手干預市場,印鈔票買股票,就像現在印鈔票買石油一樣,二是美國有能力控制新冠肺炎不再擴散,製造出疫苗,特效藥,目前美股暴跌的導火線就是疫情失控,全國恐慌,好些城市已封城,甚至封屋,禁止居民離開屋子。不用說,全國生產停頓了,經濟衰退馬上出現。

大學教授
[曾淵滄 滄海明珠]

Saturday, March 21, 2020

igambler - FKLI Spread 4月/6月的投机

FKLI Spread 4月/6月的投机,MAYBANK的股息几时除权会有很大影响。。。

首先要明白如何计算合理价,这里不多说,请看大学讲师/教授的解释:

http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/3297/1/Price_Efficiency_of_Stock_Index_Futures_Contracts.pdf?fbclid=IwAR33AZMGYPcBSmLZMjAt-Nia6YJqQVcqjbaqCRIPBRqHDFoQUlyFgpzhLSY



请看上图(是假设MAYBANK股息在5月除权),蓝点蓝线是FKLI的市价,红点红线是合理价。

市价:

4月FKLI是1304.0点,6月FKLI是1292.5点,

所以FKLI Spread 4月/6月的市价是1304.0 - 1292.5 = 11.5点

合理价:

4月FKLI是1297.5点,6月FKLI是1290.5点,

所以FKLI Spread 4月/6月的合理价是1297.5 - 1290.5 = 7.0点

既然FKLI Spread 4月/6月的市价11.5点,高过合理价7.0点,有4.5点的优势,所以我Short它咯。

市价高过合理价,那就short它咯,干嘛又扯上MAYBANK的股息几时除权呢?

其实是这样的!

MAYBANK已经公布将派发39分的股息,可它还没有公布这股息几时除权,如果根据去年的记录,那是5月7日除权,所以我以上的计算是假设今年也是在5月里除权。

那么凡事是没有绝对的,或许它今年提早在4月除权呢?毕竟5月7日是月初,早一个星期就是4月了。

MAYBANK的39分股息会影响到综合指数约7.5点,如果提早在4月除权,那么4月FKLI的合理价就会减掉7.5点变成是1290.0点,FKLI Spread 4月/6月的合理价也跟着减掉7.5点变成-0.5点,那么对我来说是个大大的Bonus了。

请看下图:(假设MAYBANK的股息在4月除权)


声明:

投机自负,赚钱不必谢我,亏钱不要骂我。

Friday, March 20, 2020

Top Glove - Stable 2Q, Covid-19 Impact to be Seen in 2H

Top Glove’s 2QFY20 core PATMI of RM123.6m (+14.9% QoQ, +59.7% YoY) brought 1HFY20 sum to RM231.3m (+10.1% YoY) after removing forex loss of RM4.2m. The results came in within expectations. 2QFY20 earnings improved (+14.9% QoQ) thanks to stronger sales volume (+2% QoQ) especially driven by natural rubber glove segment (+11% QoQ). We maintain our forecasts pending analysts’ conference call briefing next week. We maintain BUY with unchanged TP of RM6.76, based on FY20 earnings pegged to PE multiple 35x.

Within expectations. 2QFY20 core PATMI of RM123.6m (+14.9% QoQ, +59.7% YoY) brought 1HFY20 core PATMI to RM231.3m (+10.1% YoY) after removing forex loss of RM4.2m. The results came within ours but above consensus expectations, at 48.3% and 54% respectively. No dividends were declared.

QoQ. Revenue increased to RM1.23bn (+1.7%) on the back of steady growth in sales volume (+2%). This was especially contributed by the increase from the natural rubber glove segment (+11%) due to recovered market share through aggressive marketing strategies and increased in production utilisation (86% vs. 1QFY20: 84%). On the other hand, sales volume from nitrile gloves segment fell by 4% due to stronger demand previously from US market due to flu season. Overall ASP remained flattish. EBITDA margin improved by 0.4 ppts to 15.8% due to mixed prices of raw materials; higher NR prices (+5.8% to RM4.37/kg) and lower NBR prices (-5.3% to USD1.00/kg). Effective tax rate remained at 11%, subsequently, core PATMI improved to RM123.6m (+14.9%, from RM77.4m)

YoY. Revenue improved (+6%) due to the increase in sales volume (+2%). Particularly higher sales volume was achieved from nitrile glove segment (+14%), and surgical glove segment (+18%), whereas sales volume for natural rubber gloves were softer (-6%). ASP improved (+5%) due to higher selling prices from latex, vinyl and surgical gloves. EBITDA margin remain steady (+0.1 ppts) on the back of mixed raw materials prices; higher NR prices (+19% to RM4.37/kg) and lower NBR prices (-8.3% to USD1.00/kg). Lower tax expense of RM14.4m (-24%, from 2QFY19: RM18.8m) with lower effective tax rate of 11% (vs. 2QFY19: 15%) was due to tax incentives from its ongoing expansion and recognition of deferred tax assets. All in, core PATMI increased (+59.7%) to RM123.6m (from RM77.4m) due to EIs and tax.

YTD. Revenue increased to RM2.44bn (+0.7%) attributed to higher volumes (+0.6% YoY). EBITDA grew by 0.7%; with steady margin at 15.6% on the back of greater operational efficiencies. Core PATMI improved by 10.1% to RM231.3m, due to above mentioned factors (stronger sales volume and lower tax; 11% vs 1HFY19: 18%).

Capacity expansion. Top Glove currently operates at 90% capacity, with 711 lines producing 73.4bn pieces of gloves per year. In 2020 it will add c.8.2bn pieces in capacity bringing total installed capacity to c.81.6bn pieces (+16.4% YoY) with 781 lines. Bulk of the capacity is set to come in the second half of the year. Furthermore in 2021, Top Glove will be adding c.9.5bn pieces more in capacity (+11.6%).

Outlook. We expect stronger 2HFY20 in view of the ongoing outbreak of Covid-19. We understand Top Glove received strong orders from Asian countries in the beginning of the outbreak and now Western countries have too increased orders.

Forecast. Maintain our forecasts pending analyst conference call briefing next week.

Maintain BUY, TP RM6.76. We maintain BUY with unchanged TP of RM6.76. Our TP is based on FY20 earnings pegged to PE multiple of 35x. Top Glove is a good hedge against the broader market negatives from Covid-19 and weak ringgit.

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 20 Mar 2020

【行家论股/视频】乌兹马 5年盈利无忧

2020年3月19日
分析:大众投行研究

目标价:57仙
最新进展:

乌兹马(UZMA,7250,主板能源股)子公司Setegap创投石油,获大马埃克森美孚颁发合约,提供油泵设备和服务,为期4年,可以相同的费率再延长多1年。

合约价值胥视埃克森美孚在合约期间下多少订单。

行家建议:

这是乌兹马在本月的第四份合约,月初获得3600万令吉的国油勘探一揽子合约,以及1亿令吉的砂拉越钻井平台的废弃井塞合约。

上周,独资的MMSVS集团控股,获泰国穆巴达拉石油颁发价值2300万令吉的油管服务合约。

虽说以乌兹马在旧油田服务市场地位强稳,3周内再获新合约,并非太大的惊喜,但在当前油市波动之际还接连获新合约,具有非常大的意义。

尤其是,当前正值全球增长放缓之际,未来的石油供需不平衡,恐加剧油市崩盘。

这展现了乌兹马赢得新订单的能力。

目前,其未完成订单达15亿令吉,还有20亿令吉是属于一揽子合约,保证了到2024财年的盈利前景。

不过,基于当前震荡的油市,一些项目可能会被拖延,我们维持保守的估计,“中和”评级和57仙的目标价。

Maybank IB Research retains Buy for Tenaga, TP RM14

ANALYST REPORTS
Thursday, 19 Mar 202011:18 AM MYT

KUALA LUMPUR: Maybank Investment Bank Research believes the current headwinds of potential demand weakness and tariff discounts are unlikely to have a material impact on Tenaga Nasional’s financials given the prevailing tariff framework.

“Tenaga’s recent share price correction thus appears overdone in our view. Reiterate Buy with an unchanged RM14 target price, ” it said on Thursday.

Maybank Research pointed out as the Malaysia economy grapples with the effects of Covid-19, electricity demand from the industrial and commercial segments could potentially be impacted.

However, under the IBR framework, Tenaga is relatively sheltered from the effects of demand fluctuations, with only the “Customer Services” segment (RM1.1bil of annual revenue) subjected to demand risk.

The underlying demand growth for RP2 is c.2% per annum (2019: 2.7%). For sensitivity purposes, a 1% demand change would only move FY20 net profit by a mere 0.2%.

“Tenaga estimates the twin measures of 1) a 15% tariff discount to tourism-related segments and, 2) a 2% blanket tariff discount from April to September 2020 (as outlined in the 2020 Economic Stimulus Package) at RM500mil.

This would be funded entirely from the Electricity Industry Fund, leaving Tenaga financially neutral.

With coal prices trending below reference year-to-date, the research house expects continued inflows into the Industry Fund with Tenaga likely over-recovering on generation costs.

“Our RM14 TP is discounted cashflow based, assuming 7.5% WACC and 1% long-term growth. Tenaga offers a relatively decent recurring dividend yield of c.5%.

“On valuations, Tenaga’s current rolling PER of 12.5 times remains some way from the trough of 8.3 times in August 2015, when concerns over a bailout of Edra (no longer relevant) and doubts over the pass-through mechanism (since dissipated) prevailed, ” Maybank Research said.

Kenanga maintains 'market perform' on Top Glove, TP at RM5.95

ANALYST REPORTS
Friday, 20 Mar 20208:53 AM MYT

KUALA LUMPUR: Kenanga research has kept its market perform rating and target price of RM5.95 on Top Glove Corp Bhd after the glove maker's first half earnings came within expectations.

According to the research house, Top Glove's 1HFy20 Patami of RM227mil, which was 5% higher year-on-year, met 49% and 47% of its and consensus full-year estimates.

For the recent quarter, group revenue rose 2% due to higher sales volume led by latex but more than offset by lower nitrile.

Moving forward, Top Glove's earnings are expected to be driven by new capacity expansion, potentially higher average selling prices and weakening US dollar/ringgit conversion.

"Ceteris paribus, a 1% weakening of RM against USD will lead to an average 1%-2% increase in the net profit of rubber glove players," said Kenanga.

Storn sales orders are coming in from Europe, US and other countries, after the initial stage of the Covid-19 outbreak saw sales orders come mainly from China, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea.

The group also said it is able to ramp up its production levels to close to 100% from the current 90%, while there is new capacity coming on-stream from F2B and F5A having commenced operations.

The facilities will add 3.2 billion pieces of gloves per annum when fully operational.

However, the research house added that the share price could be capped by the conversion of exchangeable bonds.

"Recall, back in 2019, Top Glove issued USD200m in convertible bonds as part of their debt restructuring. The bonds can be converted into new shares at RM6.10 per share," it said.

譚新強:人類與COVID-19:誰是地球病毒?誰是白血球?

文章日期:2020年3月20日

【明報專訊】過去數周我介紹過一些有關傳染病學的概念,包括R0:一個疫症的基本傳染度,R:經containment(圍堵)和mitigation(紓緩)措施干預後的實際傳染度,CFR(Case Fatality Rate,個案死亡率),和IFR(Infection Fatality Rate,感染死亡率),然後我再以感染曲線圖來解釋不同處理疫症政策的效果。大部分國家為了表現對國民負責任,採取各樣隔離、旅遊限制,停止社交和經濟活動,藉此希望盡力flatten the curve(壓扁曲線),主要原因是擔心高峰期時,重症數量太多,將令到醫療系統崩潰。同時壓扁曲線亦可為研發疫苗、藥物,以及急速增建ICU設施等工作,爭取寶貴時間。我也指出過愈努力壓扁曲線,亦代表必須付出愈大經濟代價。

同時我也公平地解釋過相反做法,不過度干預疫情蔓延度,所謂pox party(疫症派對)政策的利弊,表面壞處就是醫療系統崩潰的機會增大,推高CFR,導致死亡人數大幅上升。表面好處可能是經濟上的犧牲較小。但其實亦可能有醫學上的好處,最主要是可藉此達到Herd Immunity(群體免疫),而此臨界點HIT (Herd Immunity Threshold),則與R0有正比關係(1-1/R0),以COVID-19為例,如R0約為3,HIT就大概為66%,亦即是說當被感染的人口比例達到HIT,疫症就將停止蔓延。當然這是個很高比例,如「真正」死亡率,真的接近所謂專家估計的較低IFR,只約0.3%至1%,那麼這「疫症派對」做法是值得考慮的。但最大問題是IFR仍然是個謎,缺乏科學證據,因為沒有做隨機測試。

英「疫症派對」抗疫 遭國民唾棄

我亦指出「疫症派對」的真正最大壞處是政治上,這是場豪賭,稍有差池,代價可以很高。在紙上討論一下無所謂,但勢估不到英國的約翰遜政府,不單止夠膽嘗以「疫症派對」來作抗疫政策,更瘋狂到向傳媒和公眾承認此舉!上周末英國政府的科學總顧問Sir Patrick Vallance醫生,在一次BBC訪問中,被問到為何英國的學校仍遲遲未停課,他竟然提到讓部分人,尤其年青人,故意受到感染,未必是壞事,對達到群體免疫有幫助!英國民眾以至全球,聽罷此言都同表嘩然,一個負責任的政府,怎可能蓄意讓國民受到病毒感染,簡直等同蓄意謀殺!在英國的中港留學生當然馬上嚇到雞飛狗走,父母狼狽撲機票回來,即使炒高至20萬港元都在所不惜!

對國民來說,laissez-faire的自由經濟政策可以,但laissez-faire的自由公共健康政策是不可能接受的!即使要做,也必須秘密地執行,一旦被公眾發現,必遭口誅筆伐,甚至被國民唾棄 。

早前特朗普也曾嘗試把此疫症看輕,形容它為流感,死亡率很低,受感染人數極少,亦將很快過去。所以國民無需減少任何活動,甚至即使染了COVID-19,仍可繼續上班!但很快民眾即發現他即使面對嚴重疫情,仍不斷講大話,個案不止沒有下跌,反而開始以幾何級數上升,CFR更曾一度高至7.6%!在這情况底下,連特朗普也不可能再故意拖延測試,以掩耳盜鈴方法繼續舉辦這「疫症派對」! 雖然為時已有點晚,但美國也被迫模仿中國式嚴厲政策。數天前舊金山已實行「shelter in place」的封城措施,紐約市在短期內亦可能同樣做法。

英國的情况也類似,面對公眾壓力,加上鄰近意大利疫情非常嚴重,所以被迫改為停課,亦將考慮停止更多經濟活動。

意大利確診個案已超過35,000宗,死亡人數逼近3000,短期內或將超越中國。最恐怖的是CFR已升至9%,與SARS相差無幾,亦把全世界的CFR拉高至4%! 面對這麼高的死亡率,西方各國怎可能不寧願犧牲經濟,都要先企圖控制疫情(成功與否是另一個問題)。

意大利死亡率高或因用錯藥

為何意大利的死亡率那麼高?最主要原因肯定跟重症太多,醫療系統崩潰有關,人口老齡化亦應是原因之一。但近日有報道或有另一原因,可能意大利醫生用錯藥!似乎他們頗喜歡用ibuprofen作為消炎退燒藥,但在某些COVID-19個案,包括一些年輕病人,反而令病情轉壞,甚至引至死亡!法國健康部和世衛,都已警告不應再為COVID-19病人開ibuprofen。如果這無心之失屬實,真的太可惜,不止影響病人健康,亦推高CFR,令到各國更難放棄嚴重傷害經濟的隔離政策。

到底COVID-19有多大真正殺傷力?首先引發這病的病毒是SARS-CoV-2,事實上真的可算是SARS的變種。跟很多的變異一樣,似乎SARS-2毒性變得較輕,但傳染度就提升了不少。

看過一位史丹福醫學院的著名傳染病學家Dr. John Ioannidis的文章,他的觀點竟然跟我一模一樣,同樣認為現時各國領袖,嚴重缺乏可靠COVID-19的IFR數據,因此無法作出最合理政策決定,可因過敏政策反應而無故犧牲經濟,隨時出現社會動亂,甚至戰爭。

缺可靠IFR數據 過敏政策或犧牲經濟

他以鑽石公主號郵輪為例,全船3500多人全接受測試,約700人呈陽性反應,雖不幸,但到現時為止,只7人死亡。因全船人都測試過,所以CFR=IFR=1%。大家亦需記得,郵輪乘客年齡偏高,所以Dr. Ioannidis說如把這小樣本的數據,投放到美國的人口年齡結構上,IFR可能只約0.125%!即使容許數據的不確定性,IFR的範圍也約為0.05%至1%之內!0.05%死亡率,就真的跟流感差不多。

但7人死亡的數據實在太少,絕不足夠以此下結論,所以他亦呼籲進行經常性隨機抽樣測試,才能以統計學準確計算出真正的IFR。

但我需要指出一點,即使COVID-19的IFR真的比流感高出不多,但明顯需要住院的重症比例非常高,約20%,其中約3%至5%更需要進入ICU,而即使年輕病人的住院率都超過10%。對比流感,住院率只約0.6%,ICU比例只約0.1%至0.2%。

無論如何,如COVID-19的IFR真的只有0.05%至1%,對比SARS的近10%,那麼可說SARS-2的毒性比SARS-1低90%至99.5%!

但因經歷了SARS-1的經驗,所以中國以至全球採取對抗COVID-19的各種隔離政策,則反而比SARS-1時嚴厲十倍甚至百倍!SARS-1的經濟損失,估計只約500億美元,主要在中國,今次COVID-19的全球經濟損失,GDP減少過萬億美元,股市損失約20萬億美元,全球極可能已進入經濟衰退。如全球經濟繼續停擺只數個月,Allianz總經濟顧問Mohamed El-Erian,甚至預測全球大蕭條(Depression),美國財政部長估計,如無有效刺激方案,連美國失業率都可飈升至20%!

Flatten the curve比疫症派對好交代,但是否一定更好呢?短期內病例增長較慢,但醫療系統能否應付頂峰期病人數量仍是個謎。紐約州的ICU牀位只有3000,預計45天後的高峰期重症量高近4萬,社交隔離措施,能否把峰頂壓扁90%以上?

亦請不要搞錯,絕不可以SARS-1為榜樣,以為同樣可以全面消滅SARS-2。COVID-19的R0明顯比SARS高不少,且已散播全球,所以除已成為pandemic(大流行),亦極可能成為每年重臨的endemic(風土病)。

除不可能消滅COVID-19外,壓扁曲線亦等如把疫情拖長,英國的Sir Patrick亦提醒壓扁曲線的措施,一用上就必須維持數月以上,絕非以周來計算(經濟代價可想而知),且當放手時,病毒隨時可再度入侵,帶來第二個峰潮(香港已正出現)。1918年的西班牙大流感(其實源頭是在美國或法國),第一個峰潮出現於當年1至3月,沉寂一段短時間後,竟在盛夏的8月再出現毒性更強的第二個峰潮,死亡人數更遠多於第一輪!

很多人寄望於夏天的殺病毒能力,失望地仍無實驗證明,且COVID-19在新加坡,甚至南半球夏季的澳洲都在肆虐,所以即使溫度對疫情有一定影響,但也不太可能根絕。

未來當然希望成功研發疫苗和藥物,但呼吸道病毒很狡猾,經常出現基因變異,估計無論是被感染過或打疫苗,免疫有效期可能只約6至18個月。除Remdesivir和其他抗病毒藥外,似乎在中國和韓國的臨牀經驗,很舊的瘧疾藥chloroquine,內含zinc,對治療COVID-19亦非常有效。

生活需「妥協」 郵輪等行業難復蘇

但現實點來說,到最後,唯一的可行辦法就是人類跟COVID-19「妥協」,接受這病如流感,將長久跟人類並存。關鍵是在哪個時間點作此妥協,亦即開始解除各種隔離和經濟停擺政策。較理想當然是如中國,先把疫情控制下來(即使只是第一峰潮),新增個案大為降低後,才逐漸解封經濟。當然亦需為疫症再來的準備,大概率個人衛生,生活和消費習慣,甚至經濟結構都必會出現中長期改變。郵輪業和自助餐應頗難復蘇,即使旅遊也極可能變得較麻煩,需要填表、檢疫甚至隔離。實體零售、電影院、展覽會,甚至教育等,也將面對線上虛擬化挑戰。

但如不能把疫情先控制下來又怎麼辦?譬如美國是否真的可以把紐約、舊金山,以至全國長期封鎖下去?近日美國已出現食物、廁紙和槍械搶購潮,如民眾因缺糧、缺錢、失業、疾病或cabin fever(悶過頭),而變得很憤怒,會否出現暴力動亂呢?

特朗普從不承擔責任,否認錯誤解散NSC的pandemic委員會,更沒有準備好測試儀器,但仍自稱表現滿分。最恐怖的是他近日故意多次把COVID-19叫作"the Chinese virus"(中國病毒),企圖轉移視線,把責任推缷到中國身上,亦明顯故意挑起種族仇視。如繼續往此危險方向走,戰爭的風險也在上升!

最佳對策仍是依賴科學,每個國家盡快進行大量隨機測試,準確計算出IFR範圍,然後用數據與人民坦誠對話,共同選擇最適合他們自己的公共健康與經濟之間的取捨。如IFR真的低於1%,實在不值得長期犧牲經濟!

這場抗疫戰非常艱鉅,亦非常需要全球合作。我亦曾解釋過,新疫症出現的頻率上升,極可能跟氣候變化有關。但請嘗試換一個角度來看疫情,如把整個地球看作一個生命體,全球暖化可能代表地球生病,發燒了。但感染地球的「病毒」可能正是人類,而COVID-19和其他新型病毒,可能才是保衛地球的「白血球」!

中環資產投資行政總裁
[譚新強 中環新譚]

Thursday, March 19, 2020

公积金局参与投资·219股价值蒸发229亿

(吉隆坡17日讯)今年1月以来,冠状病毒病疫情重击马股,使雇员公积金局(EPF)在马股投资的219家上市公司的价值蒸发了近230亿令吉。

42股价值有增无减

根据财经日报《MalaysianReserve》数据,目前公积金局在马股的投资总值剧跌至1356亿令吉,比较截至2019年第四季杪则为1585亿令吉,股票价值前后蒸发229亿令吉,这期间仅有42个股项的价值有增无减。

中国开始爆发的冠状病毒病重挫全球股市,连马股也不例外,昨日富时综指跌至1280.63点,创下逾10年新低记录。

今年至今为止,富时综指已崩跌19.39%,较整年计的投资回酬则下跌21.05%。全球市场除了担心严重疫情将把全球经济推向不景气,可是“祸不单行”,沙地阿拉伯与俄罗斯掀起石油战,使全球股市溃不成军,马股则创下自2010年以来最大跌幅。

外资担心全球经济成长放缓将进一步恶化,从而抛售马股的股票。沙地阿拉伯决定增加每日的石油产量,以图将俄罗斯及美国推出石油市场,使全球股市“跌跌”不休。

公积金局在过去3个月表现最差的股项,包括国油化学(PCHEM,5183,主板工业产品服务组)、森种植(SIMEPLT,5285,主板种植组)、大众银行(PBBANK,1295,主板金融服务组)、国家能源(TENAGA,5347,主板公用事业组)、兴业银行(RHBBANK,1066,主板金融服务组)、联昌集团(CIMB,1023,主板金融服务组)、丰隆银行(HLBANK,5819,主板金融服务组)、马来亚银行(MAYBANK,1155,主板金融服务组)、贺特佳(HARTA,5168,主板医疗保健组)以及马屋业(MBSB,1171,主板金融服务组)。

若以工业领域为主,目前公积金局在马股的最大投资,将以金融服业领域比重最高,占投资总额的38.4%,消费产业服务领域则第二高,占14.9%。

公积金局的银行股投资最惨淡,今年至今的价值总共减少77亿5000万令吉。银行股遭抛售惨跌,主要是全球中行纷纷下调利息以支撑经济成长。大马方面,国家银行单在今年为止,即将隔夜政策利率下调50个基点。

《彭博社》数据显示,公积金局下跌最多的持股为大众银行,即过去3个月里前后减少了14亿令吉;联昌集团则第二高,下跌13亿令吉;接着丰隆银行跌12亿4000万令吉,马银行也下跌11亿7000万令吉。

油气股波动剧烈,公积金局的损失也颇为可观,其中在国油化学的投资损失最为严重,自今年1月以来,公积金局在该股的投资价值大幅度减少16亿3000万令吉。

今年3月初,该局增购国油化学581万股的股票,使持股增至逾8%或至6亿4050万股。相信该局是向国油化学母公司──国家石油增购该批股票。国家石油自去年杪即开始减持旗下子公司的股权。

公积金局在增加国油化学股票后推高股价,惟沙地与俄罗斯爆发石油战后,反而将其股价重挫34%。截至昨日收市为止,国油化学以4令吉30仙挂收,市值减少至344亿令吉。

https://www.sinchew.com.my/content/content_2236136.html

Earnings contraction seen for banking sector

BANKING
Thursday, 19 Mar 2020

PETALING JAYA: The banking sector could see an earnings contraction of around 7% this year, in light of the current challenging economic environment.

UOB Kay Hian said in a report yesterday that it is expecting a 6.8% sector earnings contraction in 2020, before a year-on-year recovery of 5.2% in 2021.

“Note that we have not changed our net credit cost assumption which currently factors in a gradual increase from 24 basis points in 2019 to 29 basis points in 2020. Assuming net credit cost were to rise by an additional 10 basis points in 2020, this would impact our sector earnings by an additional 5%.

“As such, credit cost remains a key swing factor.”

UOB Kay Hian noted that the banking sector has declined by 24.3% year-to-date, compared with the FBM KLCI’s 20.3%. This, it said, brings the banking sector’s price-to-book to below its 10-year historical mean.

“Banks in general have guided that sectors most directly impacted by the Covid-19 (namely airlines, hospitality manufacturing companies linked to supply chains) represents on average 2% to 3% of their loan books.“

However, looking at Bank Negara statistics, wholesale, retail, restaurants and hotels comprised a larger 7% of total system loans. As such, if the virus were to remain protracted, we would not discount the possibility for the system net credit cost to rise by a larger-than-expected rate.”

In terms of large-cap picks, UOB Kay Hian said it likes CIMB as the stock is trading below its trough price-to-book and only 10% away from the research house’s trough price-to-earnings valuation.

“As Maybank has declined by a smaller extent given its lower foreign shareholding and dividend appeal, the stock continues to exhibit the largest downside risk to its trough price-to-earnings valuation and its relatively high oil and gas (O&G) portfolio to peers could be viewed as a potential risk, if the low oil prices were to continue.

“In the mid-cap space we like Hong Leong Bank, given its low foreign shareholding, above-industry loans growth and low O&G exposure.”

Separately, UOB Kay Hian said the 2016 oil price crash and SARS would be a better representation of the banking sector’s credit cost experience, given the impact of the low oil prices and Covid-19 crisis.

“During the SARS period, the sector’s net credit cost had only inched up by two basis points while the oil price crash in 2016 resulted in a larger 10 basis points increase in the sector’s net credit cost; but this only impacted selected banks like Maybank, RHB and CIMB, which saw an average 20 basis point increase in net credit cost.”

The research house said: “We believe that O&G companies are in a much stronger financial position (average net gearing declined to 38% as at June 2019 compared with 52% in December 2018), while the O&G sector’s exposure has also declined to less than 2% from 2.8% in 2016.”

RHB maintains 'buy' on Supermax, TP at RM1.86

ANALYST REPORTS
Monday, 16 Mar 20208:49 AM MYT

KUALA LUMPUR: While Supermax Bhd is expected to benefit from a demand surge in gloves owing to the Covid-19 pandemic, RHB research is positive over the company's plans for the future expansion of its manufacturing capacity.

The glove maker recently announced that it had acquired a tract of land in Kapar, Klang, for RM20mil, which a news report says it plans to use to increase its production by 4.5 billion ppa over the next five years.

"The land location is strategic, being nearby its existing cluster of manufacturing plants and hence, it should lead to better operational synergies and efficiency," said RHB in a note.

However, the research house has kept its FY20-22 forecasts on the company pending the detailed plan for expansion by Supermax's management.

With regards to recent expansion, RHB said the commissioning of new lines at Block A of Plan 12 in Meru, Klang, is ongoing.

"We expect Supermax capacity to increase by 0.8bn ppa (or 3%) after completing the remaining three lines at Block A in March-2020," it said.

The research house also estimates that due to the worse-than-expected spread of Covid-19, the orders for gloves from China and other countries in the region have increased, with Supermax's utilisation rate surging to more than 85% versus the usual 70% to 75%.

The company will also benefit from a weaker ringgit as nearly all of its gloves are exported with a 50% to 60% cost in US dollar.

RHB expects ever 0.10% increase in the US dollar-ringgit exchange rate would boost earnings by 1.8%.

The research house maintained its buy call on Supermax with a target price of RM1.86.

Top Glove 2Q profit up 9%, expects solid quarters ahead

Adam Aziz/theedgemarkets.com
March 19, 2020 15:02 pm +08

KUALA LUMPUR (March 19): Top Glove Corp Bhd's net profit in the second quarter ended Feb 29, 2020 (2QFY20) rose 9.35% to RM115.68 million from RM105.79 million in the year-ago quarter, thanks to tax incentives from ongoing expansion and higher revenue.

Quarterly earnings per share (EPS) climbed to 4.52 sen, from 4.14 sen in 2QFY19.

Revenue for the quarter rose 6.02% to RM1.23 billion, from RM1.16 billion in 2QFY19, due largely to its nitrile glove segment, which saw a 14% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in sales volume.

“Sales volume for natural rubber gloves was softer by 6% against 2QFY19, while margins were impacted by a 19% surge in natural rubber latex concentrate prices which the corresponding increase in average selling prices (ASP) was not sufficient to offset,” it said in a bourse filing.

Raw material prices for 2QFY20 remained mixed. The average price for natural rubber latex concentrate was RM4.37/kg, up by 5.8% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) and 19% y-o-y.

Meanwhile, the average price for nitrile latex was US$1/kg, declining by 5.3% q-o-q and 8.3% y-o-y, it said.

For the first half of FY20 (1HFY20), Top Glove's net profit was up 5.22% to RM227.11 million, from RM215.85 million in the year-ago period, as the tax incentives helped offset lower pre-tax profit arising from lower operating margins.

Half-year revenue grew 0.7% to RM2.44 billion, from RM2.42 billion in 1HFY19.

Top Glove pointed out that its profit after tax in 1HFY20 amounted to 62% of the profit after tax for FY19.

“The group recorded significant progress in Aspion’s performance arising from enhancement initiatives implemented over the past two years, as sales volume for Aspion’s surgical gloves grew substantially by 29% both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year.

“Improvement efforts will continue to be intensified across Aspion’s operations from production to marketing, to ensure the group realises Aspion’s full potential and establishes a bigger presence in the surgical glove segment,” it said.

'Very solid quarters' amid Covid-19
On the Covid-19 outbreak, Top Glove said it has seen its sales order book double, on strong orders from the West on top of the initial growth in sales order from Asia.

The group also anticipates that the declaration of the Covid-19 outbreak as a pandemic by the World Health Organisation (WHO) on March 12, 2020, will eventually result in the healthcare and other sectors requiring more medical supplies such as gloves and other essential items.

The group currently operates 711 lines producing 73.4 billion pieces of gloves per year.

At over 90% capacity, Top Glove said it can ramp up production to 100%, added with new capacity coming onstream.

It expects to have added annual capacity of 70 lines producing 8.2 billion pieces of gloves in 2020, and another 17.7 billion pieces of gloves in 2021, to have a grand total of 861 lines producing 91.1 billion pieces of gloves per annum by the end of next year.

All in all, the group envisions “very solid quarters ahead”.

Moreover, the interplay of several other factors, which include the recent plunge in oil prices, augur well for Top Glove’s performance for 2HFY20.

Top Glove executive chairman Tan Sri Dr Lim Chee Wai said: “Top Glove is fortunate to be in the healthcare industry which is relatively resilient to economic and political uncertainty.

“While our sales have surged during this outbreak, we are saddened to see so much sickness and suffering. We will continue to work safely and do our duty to ensure we produce quality gloves to help contain the outbreak, while protecting and saving lives,” Lim said.

At 2.41pm, Top Glove shares rose 4 sen or 0.7% to RM5.79, giving it a market capitalisation of RM14.63 billion. Year-to-date, the counter has gained 23.19%.

湯文亮:政府有所作為 失業率可降

文章日期:2020年3月19日

【明報專訊】財政司長陳茂波預早通知最新一份報告,大家可以睇到失業率創9九年新高,似乎很驚人,但再想一想,財爺的意思是失業率比2011年還要低,還不是太壞的事,我估計失業率仍然不會高過4%,結果是3.7%。不過,情况如果繼續下去,而政府又不作為的話,失業率會持續上升,如果超過5%的話,可以說失守第一道防線,而且還會繼續失守下去,失業率會不斷上升,所以,第一道防線是很重要。

如超5% 將失守第一道防線

有人話失業率4%應該是第一道防線,政府應死守這條防線,我同意他的說話,但政府是沒有可能守得住4%,如果以此為第一道防線,恐怕今個月就會失守,數字其實是沒有變化,但心理就受到影響。倒不如以失業率5%作為第一道防線,政府如果有所作為的話,是可以守得住這道防線直至經濟回穩。

不少話政府已經非常有所作為,不但派錢剌激消費,而且資助某些行業。老實說,政府派錢是被政治形勢所逼,如果政府可以揸主意,我估計一定唔會派錢,但現時唔派都派咗,唔好講返轉頭。至於資助某些行業,根本是細眉細眼,不但幫助不大,而且不能夠阻止失業率上升。

資助部分行業 只細眉細眼

其實要阻止失業率上升有兩個方法,第一是鼓勵多些人做生意,多人做生意自然會請多些職員,減少失業人數,失業率自然會下降,但以現在這個環境,根本沒有人投資做生意。所以,這個方法雖然有效,但不切實際。

第二個方法當然是希望現在做緊生意的人不要放棄,政府資助某些行業亦是出於這個原因,但這些資助並不足夠,只是令生意人稍遲一些放棄。最好方法就是要生意人自己支持自己,最簡單直接就是放寬逆周期措施,令到有物業的生意人可以利用他們的樓宇取得額外資金繼續營運,這個方法亦要急於進行。否則,那些人見經濟環境不佳,就不會利用自己擁有物業取得額外資金繼續做生意,少了一些人做生意,失業率自然會上升。

最後,大家會發覺,香港失業率是否會繼續上升的決定權竟然在政府手上,如果政府沒有作為的話,大家應該打定輸數。

紀惠集團行政總裁
[湯文亮 敢說反話]

周顯:收數是一門專業

文章日期:2020年3月19日

【明報專訊】某位仁兄,專門從銀行買來枯得不能再枯、死得不能再死的爛帳,代價大約是5%。

我問他,究竟有什麼business model,他淡然說,其實不過是統計學啫,人有三衰六旺,這些人當中,說不定有一些後來一朝發達,你向他追條陳年舊債,他想也不想,便全數清還了。這種客戶,只要追到一個,便可以頂二十個,十分好做。

不過,他告誡了一句,就是只要不停煩,騷擾着對方,就可以了,千萬不要恐嚇,否則對方報警,就很麻煩了。

這證明了每一行業,都有它的商業秘密。其實收數這門生意,是一門專業,我識得的每一個富豪,都有專門的收數佬,而且還是富豪最親密最close的手下,富豪點楝其他人,都不會楝他們。不消說的,這些收數佬個個身光頸靚,有某位專同某地下大亨收數的,身家十幾億元,真的是行行出狀元了。

我的政治課程在今天結束,休息一陣,下月將會開中國大歷史和中港政經未來課程。有人問,為什麼不停開課程呢?第一,是因為牽豬哥賺暢,自己覺得都幾好玩;第二,這其實賺不了多少錢,七成收入都付給了工作人員。所以,真實的情况是,工作人員比我更加着緊,要我開新課程,這有點像「黃袍加身」了。

[周顯 投資二三事]

Wednesday, March 18, 2020

Telecommunication Sector - Bargains from MCO selldown

Investment Highlights

  • Bargain valuations. Attractive valuations have emerged from the sharp selldown of telco stocks over the past week on fears of a government lockdown, which materialised into a 14-day movement control order (MCO) nationwide 18–31 March to curb the spread of the novel coronavirus (Covid-19) infection in Malaysia. Recall that this means all government and private sector premises will cease operating, with the exception of premises involved in the provision of essential services such as water, electricity, energy, telecommunications, post, transportation, irrigation, oil, gas, fuel and lubricants, broadcasting, finance, banking, health, pharmacies, fire and rescue, prisons, ports, airports, security, defence, public cleansing, retail and food supply.
  • Earnings unlikely to be affected. In our view, these negative sentiments are over-exaggerated as these Covid-19 movement restrictions are unlikely to dampen the earnings prospects of fixed broadband and cellular operators (celcos). On the contrary, restricted movement on the population is likely to drive up mobile data demand, which has already been experiencing explosive growth over the past 5 years. Nevertheless, given the pricing structures of fibre and 4G packages, the sales revenue of these operators will only increase if significant numbers of existing or new subscribers switch to higher value packages. In our view, this is less probable as the MCO is expected to last for only 14 days while mobile users would more likely deploy home/office wifi connected to fibre broadband which are mostly based on unlimited data plans. Hence, we maintain the forecasts of the telco stocks under our coverage.
  • Celco’s service revenues are still rising, albeit at a slow but steady pace from postpaid accretions. YoY, celcos’ 4Q2019 service revenue slid 1% due to a 10% contraction from Celcom’s declining subscriber base, partly offset by Maxis’ commendable growth of 6%. However, on a QoQ comparison, their service revenues rose 8.7% to RM6bil on postpaid segment growth and seasonally higher device sales, largely driven by a sharp increase of 13% QoQ from Maxis. This was further supported by blended average revenue per user (ARPU) rising slightly RM1/month QoQ to RM48 mainly from the increase in postpaid subscribers.
  • Mobile competition remains intense. Total subscriber trajectory continued its downward trend in 4Q2019 after a brief uptick in 2Q2019 which highlights the still intense mobile competition. Mobile subscribers decreased by 643K QoQ as prepaid declines of 841K were only partially offset by postpaid additions of 198K. Only Maxis registered an 88K net increase while Celcom fell by 251K and Digi by 480K. Last month, Celcom introduced a postpaid plan with unlimited data with its MEGA product launch at RM98/month with a hotspot quota of 5GB/month. Almost simultaneously, U Mobile launched a new GX38 prepaid plan which offers unlimited data at a promotional price of RM35/month with a speed cap of 6Mbps, compared with 3Mbps for its existing GX30 plan priced at RM30/month. U Mobile’s new GX68 plan at RM58/month for life, if subscribers signed up during the promotional period, offers unlimited data, speed and calls with 6GB of hotspot data. For comparison, Digi currently offers its Infinite online plan with unlimited data and calls at RM100/month while Unifi Mobile is priced at RM99/month. Maxis currently does not have an unlimited data plan, with the highest MaxisOne quota of 60GB priced at RM188/month. Given Celcom’s new plans, we expect the remaining players to introduce similar products against the backdrop of the industry’s declining subscribers.
  • We upgrade our recommendation on the sector to OVERWEIGHT from NEUTRAL as valuations of Maxis and Digi have become attractive given the recent price drops. While retaining our fair values at RM5.76 for Maxis and RM4.70 for Digi, we have upgraded them to BUYs. We also retain our BUY currently on Axiata, given its low EV/EBITDA valuations and rising prospects for monetisation of its multiple businesses. TM remains a HOLD against the backdrop of government-targeted fiberised ARPU reductions under the National Fiberisation and Connectivity Plan (NFCP).
  • Sector can be de-rated on resumption of revenue declines against the backdrop of escalated mobile price war and looming sharp drops in fixed broadband prices this year, driven by NFCP prerogatives. We are also cautious on possibilities of higher-than-expected increase in operating and capital cost requirements as operators need to further upgrade their network infrastructure for 5G rollouts.
Source: AmInvest Research - 18 Mar 2020