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Friday, July 10, 2020

[转贴] 5分钟看懂MATRIX(5236) 2020年 Q4季报 - 第一天

2020年7月9日星期四

matrix跟红飞机一样,本来应该要在五月底前公布的业绩,在因为疫情的影响下,BURSA允许公司可以延长至6月底出炉,他们也要求把期限暂延至7月15日前,而今天他的报告终于出炉了。相信大家对他应该不陌生,虽然天哥不常谈起他,但是他确是投资者心中的明星股之一,虽然地产行业低迷了几年,也压缩了他股价成长的空间,但是他却是一家不择不扣的高股息和优质的产业股,废话少说,我们直接进正题吧。。

Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31 Mar 2020
MATRIX CONCEPTS HOLDINGS BERHAD

Financial Year End 31 Mar 2020
Quarter 4 Qtr
Quarterly report for the financial period ended 31 Mar 2020
The figures have not been audited

Attachments
Q Report (31.03.2020) (1).pdf
392.2 kB

Remarks :
The Unaudited Condensed Consolidated Statement of Comprehensive Income should be read in conjunction with the Audited Financial Statements for the financial year ended 31 March 2019 and the accompanying explanatory notes attached to this interim financial statements.

Default Currency
Other Currency
Currency: Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)

SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION
31 Mar 2020

INDIVIDUAL PERIOD
CUMULATIVE PERIOD

CURRENT YEAR QUARTER
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
QUARTER
CURRENT YEAR TO DATE
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
PERIOD

31 Mar 2020
31 Mar 2019
31 Mar 2020
31 Mar 2019

$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
1 Revenue
472,143
278,945
1,282,335
1,045,531
2 Profit/(loss) before tax
95,222
83,486
339,103
297,767
3 Profit/(loss) for the period
52,915
65,865
231,636
218,229
4 Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent
55,579
65,865
234,300
218,389
5 Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit)
6.74
8.75
29.18
29.02
6 Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit)
2.50
3.25
11.50
12.75

AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER
AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
7 Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$)
1.9300
1.7600

我们不难发现,这个季度的营业额是异常的高,差不多比去年同季度高了70%左右,幅度相当惊人,但是奇怪的是,营业额提高了那么多,净利却没怎么提升,到底是什么回事呢?等下我们看看完整版本的报告吧,而这个季度由于是第四季,所以也是全年的业绩,我们看到他全年的营业额是继续比去年来得好的,而净利上还有少许的成长,所以是相对来说不错的,比较可惜的是,这个季度的股息派发有缩水了一下,让全年的股息变成11.5sen,股息率
来说处于6.3%左右的水平,算是不错的,前提是他未来没有继续下跌啦。。




这个就是他的完整版本季报,我发现了一个大问题,就是他的LOGO被做设计的人拉长了=。=,如果是我做印刷的时代做这样的东西,出去被老板骂了。。不过大家应该认为不重要啦XD,所以这里我们就看到问题了,生意是最大了,但是成本也提高了很多,为什么呢?我有看了他的NOTE有说明,因为产品组合有较大的部分是可负担房产,所以PROFIT MARGIN变少了。然后当营业额增加,SELLING EXPENSES自然就走高了,根据报纸报道说,在MCO期间,他们是全部工作人员ONLINE卖屋子,所以营业额才那么厉害,这个管理层真的非常厉害。但是最大的问题是,这个季度是第四季,所以所得税全部一次过计算,变多了很多,不然的话,相信这个季度能够保持着成长呢。。


在这个资产负债表,我们看到很重要的一项,就是他的LOGO又变回正常啦XD,然后可以看到他多了一项,就是JOINT VENTURE的公司,价值1亿3000万,虽然投资了那么多,但是现金还是继续增加中的,就知道多好料了。当然钱不会凭空出现的,借贷方面是有增加了少许的,但是整体来说,公司的资产多了4亿,算是这样了。每股的净资产也高达1.93,如果这样算的话,当下是有低估成份的,但是这个是参考而已,我一般上很少用NTA来计算合理价的。


所以其实他的现金从营运来看,是变多了的,但是很明显,在扣除了所得随后,现金回收是少了一些,不过OK咯还在能够接受的范围了,当然就是有投资了一亿三千多万在JOINT VENTURE的公司一起发展咯,对未来来说也是好事来的,总的来说,公司现金流是没问题啦,所以公司算是还可以的。


这个是公司的各种不同部门的业绩和表现,其实我有HIGHLIGHT起来了,青色是比去年同季度做得好的,而公司最赚钱的业务当然是产业发展了,这一块最赚钱,然后建筑其实比去年同季度减少了净利,而他的酒店和大学,其实并不是很赚钱的,教育部分还亏损300万,但是其实去年同季是亏800万的,所以亏少了很多,是好事来的。。所以大家记得要读大学记得找MATRIX,不然继续亏钱也不好玩XD


这个是公司对未来的预期,自从COVID后,全部公司的预期都变长了,总的来说,公司的产业都有一定的需求,所以管理层认为2021还是有一定的机会可以超越,也认为接下来的产业需求会保持不错的情况。


这个是公司过去十多个季度的业绩,虽然这个季度因为所得税的缘故变红了,但是其实过去十多个季度是青多过红的,而且走势也相对不错,所以公司确实是一家稳打稳扎的产业公司。


MATRIX 5236
股价 Rm1.83
ROE 14.5左右PE: 6.5左右
DY 6.28%左右

总结

从上述的图表我们不难发现,虽然公司过去许多个季度都青多过红,但是公司的股价因为产业市场疲弱,而跟其他产业公司一同低迷了好几年了,所以当下的价格跟几年前来说,不仅没有上涨,还跌了少许,而我们也看一看公司的一些数据,包括ROE,PE和DY等等,很明显如果以这样的数据衡量的话,公司确实是处于低估的阶段的,所以个人的看法来说,我是对该公司保持正面的想法的,毕竟我比较喜欢低估的公司,而且未来前景也还可以就好了。但是说真的,这种股对于大部分的人来说,可能太闷了,他要有爆发性的股价增值貌似不是容易的事,除非产业股的趋势来临,否则的话,买这只股最多是稳稳收一点股息,然后股价能够不跌,并有少许的成长已经算是不错了,所以对于高风险投资者来说,其实这家公司并不会很吸引,但是对于稳定类别的投资者来说,这家公司或许就是一个值得留意的公司了,至于该不该买,就看自己怎么想了。。

写这篇文章的时候我个人是持有该公司股份,但是请别看到我的文章就胡乱以为我叫你买或卖,整篇文章并没有任何买卖建议,或推高股压低价的其他企图,单纯分享我的功课,本人“怒”不对你的盈亏负任何责任,谢谢。

https://windscopo.blogspot.com/2020/07/5matrix5236-2020-q4.html

Wood Manufacturing - The divergent fortunes of wood manufacturing

While panel board makers are expected to continue to suffer from low ASPs from a regional supply glut, a very different outlook beckons for furniture makers in 2H20. Going into 2H20, we expect furniture makers to benefit from rebounding sales volumes, weak ringgit levels and cheaper raw material costs. We maintain our NEUTRAL stance on the sector given the divergent fortunes of furniture and panel board makers. Our top picks are Lii Hen (BUY, TP: RM3.65) based on 9x PE on mid-FY21 earnings and Homeritz (BUY, TP: RM0.72) based on 10x PE multiple on FY21 earnings.

Furniture sales returning to pre-covid-19 levels already? According the Malaysian Furniture Association, furniture sales volumes have been surprisingly strong since the resumption of operations. Having recently met with furniture makers Lii Hen and Homeritz, both have confirmed that sales have returned to pre-Covid levels (i.e. that of Jan-Feb 2020).

Furniture makers 2H20 outlook. Going into 2H20, furniture makers Lii Hen and Homeritz are expected to benefit on several fronts from (i) pent up demand, (ii) increased orders to the US from companies diverting orders from China to SEA region due to the still on-going trade war, (iii) weaker ringgit strength averaging RM4.25/USD YTD (vs. 2019 average: RM4.14/USD) and (iv) cheaper raw materials (glue, leather etc.) vs. 2019 prices.

Both Lii Hen and Homeritz are trading at undemanding valuations, have healthy dividend yield and are net cash. In addition to favourable earnings outlook, Lii Hen and Homeritz are currently trading at undemanding valuations of 7.5x and 8.7x PE (or 5.1 and 4.7 ex-cash PE respectively. Furthermore, both Lii Hen and Homeritz are yielding a healthy 6.1% and 5.2% at current price levels. As of end-Feb they are net cash with Lii Hen at RM157.9m (RM0.88/share; 32.3% of market cap) and Homeritz at RM81.1m (RM0.27/share; 46.6% of market cap).

Panel board makers macro issues continue. Panel board makers continue to suffer from excess supply glut in the region. This is mainly due to ample production capacities in neighbouring countries, Thailand and Vietnam, which ramped up capacities to supply the Middle East market. Since US trade sanctions were imposed on the Middle East in 2018, excess capacities have led to ASPs declining significantly as Thailand and Vietnam flooded the market with product. Figure #2 shows the historical PBT contribution of panel board makers Evergreen and Heveaboard. As trade sanctions show no signs of being lifted, we expect the depressed prices (from the supply glut) continuing into 2H20.

Malaysia as a production hub. Despite Vietnam’s reputation as a manufacturing hotbed, we note that the cost of labour in the country has risen dramatically in recent years, reducing its attractiveness as a manufacturing hub. Figure #1 shows the narrowing cost of labour between Malaysia and Vietnam. With this narrowing gap, Malaysia could be poised to grab some of the “US-China trade war demand substitution” from Vietnam.

Forecasts. We Keep Our Forecasts Unchanged.

NEUTRAL. We maintain our NEUTRAL stance on the sector given the divergent fortunes of furniture and panel board makers. Our top picks for the sector are Lii Hen (BUY, TP: RM3.56) and Homeritz (BUY, TP: RM0.72) due to reasons mentioned above.

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 10 Jul 2020

Matrix Concepts Holdings - Ending strong

Matrix reported FY20 core PATMI of RM231.5m (+6.4% YoY), within expectations. 4QFY20 core PATMI fell QoQ/YoY largely due to a lower margin product mix. 4QFY20 new sales came in at RM87.3m, bringing FY20 sales to RM1bn. Both FY21 sales and GDV launch targets are set at RM1.1bn which will likely be achieved given that over RM700m worth of property bookings were made during the MCO period. We maintain our forecasts and BUY recommendation with an unchanged RNAV-based TP of RM2.06.

Within expectations. Matrix reported 4QFY20 core PATMI of RM52.9m (-19% QoQ, -19.7% YoY), bringing the FY20 amount to RM231.5m (+6.4% YoY) which formed 101% and 103% of our and consensus full year forecasts, respectively. No EIs were excluded from the reported earnings.

Dividend. Declared interim dividend of 2.5 sen (4QFY19: 3.0) per share going ex on 23 Jul 2020, bringing YTD dividend to 11.5 sen per share.

QoQ/YoY. 4QFY20 revenue increased +69.2%/+69.3% to RM472.1m on the back of higher recognition from the sales of Sendayan Development residential properties. On the other hand, core PATMI fell -19%/-19.7% to RM52.9m due to a higher effective tax rate due to non-deductibles coupled with lower margin product mix (i.e. more affordably-priced houses compared to more commercial and industrial properties in the previous quarters)

YTD. Revenue rose +22.4% to RM1282.3m from higher revenue recognition from progressive billings. Similarly, core PATMI improved 6.4% to RM231.5m in tandem with revenue coupled with a lower margin product mix.

Ending strong. We view Matrix’s recent quarterly results positively as the earnings did relatively better in comparison to its property peers (which registered much wider decreases). 4QFY20 new sales came in at RM87.3m, bringing FY20 sales to RM1bn which is below its full year target of RM1.3bn largely due to the Covid-19 impact. Both FY21 sales and GDV launch targets are set at RM1.1bn which will likely be achieved given that over RM700m worth of property bookings were made during the MCO period. Earnings visibility will continue to be supported by new sales and unbilled sales of 0.8x cover (RM1bn).

Forecast. Unchanged. Maintain BUY with an unchanged TP of RM2.06 based on a 30% discount to RNAV of RM2.94. We continue to like Matrix as it is well-positioned to ride on affordable housing theme within its successful townships with cheap land cost and sustained property sales. This is supported by an attractive dividend yield of 5.7% for FY21 and 6.8% for FY22, being one of the highest in the sector

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 10 Jul 2020

大公司GCB的買進時機

Guan Chong Bhd(GCB, 5102),从事可可脂,可可饼,可可粉和可可来源的食品配料的投资控股,制造,分销和贸易。

从地域上看,该集团在马来西亚,新加坡和印度尼西亚开展业务,其中主要收入来自新加坡。



Guan Chong Bhd 長期以來業績不是很理想,ROE並不高。

但2016年後就出現顯著成長。

但實際上,Revenue 真正成長的只是2019年,如下:

Revenue

2016 2315.87

2017 2147.91

2018 2273.42

2019 2941.63

EPS

2016 0.09

2017 0.1

2018 0.2

2019 0.21

但在當前經濟衰退的背景下,2019年業績恐怕很難保持。

Guan Chong Bhd 雖然是一間收入基礎穩定的大公司,但有其缺點,就是產品屬於鬥價錢型,故只能以量來壓低成本取勝。

這也是它毛利率低的原因,就算這三年業績進步,仍不能擺脫這格局。

也許就是如此,它市盈率長期維持在7-12之間。

未來可見估計仍不能擺脫7-12的市盈率。

但無論如何,作為一家營業額有29億令吉的大企業,它還是有一定投資價值。

這裡,我先假定它會受損於經濟衰退,但還是會復甦回2016-2019年水平,那就可以估算它的價值,大概介於10-12倍市盈率。

以目前2.80,12.26市盈率股價,它不是理想買入價值。

所以建議還是等反彈結束,股市再次回落時,才進場。




这一套三本投资书胜过你看外面20本,因为外面的投资书是东说一点,西说一点,我是把精华整理归纳,以Step by Step方法铺陈,化繁為簡,全面講解投資分析法。

股票基本面分析的《股票真智慧》、技术面的《图表趋势秘密》和经济分析的《经济周期投资》。

詳細书內容可瀏覽:

https://ckfstock.blogspot.my/2018/02/adibooks-series.html

購買請mail: kongfaw.choo358@gmail.com

投资教学視頻(捐款用途)

https://ckfstock.blogspot.com/2019/11/blog-post_25.html
 

KGI initiates coverage on Silverlake Axis with 30 cents TP

Broker's Calls
Samantha Chiew Published on Thu, Jul 09, 2020 / 12:52 PM GMT+8 / Updated 17 hours ago

SINGAPORE (July 9): KGI Securities is initiating coverage on Silverlake Axis with “outperform” and a target price of 30 cents.

Silverlake Axis has strong, multi-year relationships with key Asian banks and other financial institutions, providing and servicing their core banking systems.

Despite COVID-19 leading to lower project revenue due to delays, banking clients have stepped up requests for more maintenance works, essentially leading to minimal sales fall-off.

While this has helped cushion Silverlake’s sales drop, the company has also seen little to no cancellation in orders. Management is also expecting a large contract to be signed in early FY21.

In the short-term, banks are likely to cut down on IT spending due to Covid-19, but are likely accelerate digitalisation plans after this period. Hence, banks' long-term capex plans are not expected to see a large impact.

Furthermore, the proliferation of the Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) business will soon serve as yet another stable, recurring revenue stream for Silverlake. The business is now in the early stages of expansion into Japan.

On that note, Silverlake can also see decent order book gains, should they manage to successfully partner with digital banking licensees.

Analysts Kenny Tan and Joel Ng said in a Thursday report, “While corporate purses for IT spending will be tightened in a post-COVID world, we expect a shift to cloud spending, where Silverlake has also pivoted towards with their latest business strategies.”

Currently, the company maintains a healthy balance sheet that can continue funding acquisitions to have a better fighting chance in the cloud space.

Meanwhile, the analysts’ target price of 30 cents is based on 13 times FY21 estimated EPS, which in return is about 32% discount to Indian competitors, and 48% discount to European and American peers, as well as below Silverlake’s average price-to-earnings ratio in the past five years.

“We can expect further upside if highlighted catalysts occur, or when banks resume regular spending practices,” says Tan and Ng.

Based on the stock’s current price of 25 cents, the analysts have assumed a 50% dividend payout ratio, which translates to future dividend yields between 4.2 – 5.0%.

“It is possible that Silverlake maintains current dividend of 1.8 Scts, a 7.2% dividend yield, since they have the cash for it, but we think that is an unlikely scenario,” adds Tan and Ng.

SATS reports net loss of $6.3 mil in 4Q20 as Covid-19 halts air travel


Results
Felicia Tan Published on Thu, Jul 09, 2020 / 6:55 PM GMT+8 / Updated 14 hours ago

SINGAPORE (July 9): SATS, the gateway services and food solutions provider, reported a net loss of $6.3 million in 4Q20, compared to the earnings of $49.9 million reported in 4Q19.

The loss was mainly attributable to provisions by the group and impairments of $51 million.

This brings SATS’s total earnings for FY20 to $168.4 million, a 32.2% drop y-o-y from last year.

The quarter reported a loss per share of 0.6 cent, compared to the 4.5 cents in 4Q19.

Earnings per share (EPS) for FY20 came in at 15.1 cents, compared to the 22.3 cents reported in the previous year.

Group revenue fell 8.1% y-o-y to $38.4 million for the quarter, due to lower revenue reported for Gateway Services and higher revenue for Food Solutions.

For FY20, group revenue grew 6.2% y-o-y to $1.94 billion. Food Solutions’ revenue rose 8.3% y-o-y to $1.07 billion, with contributions from CFPL and NWA of $121.2 million. Gateway Services’ revenue increased 3.7% y-o-y to $868.8 million, mainly due to the consolidation of Ground Team Red Holdings and Ground Team Red, and strong performance in ground handling before the Covid-19 outbreak.

In a Thursday statement, SATS says its performance for the quarter was impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic across the region. The outbreak led to a significant drop in air travel demand, and created a “substantial adverse impact” on revenue and profitability.

Revenue for Gateway Services declined 17.8% y-o-y to $185.3 million while Food Solutions revenue edged up 0.8% y-o-y to $247.3 million.

The consolidation of Country Foods (formerly known as SATS BRF Food Pte. Ltd.) and Nanjing Weizhou Airline Food Corp (NWA) contributed $46.4 million and $3.6 million respectively to Food Solutions’ revenue.

Group expenditure for the quarter fell 6.9% q-o-q to $391.6 million.

In the same quarter, staff costs declined by $59.8 million mainly due to government reliefs, a a decrease in contract services, overtime, and other variable staff costs attributable to lower aviation volumes.

Group expenditure for the year rose 8.5% y-o-y to $1.72 billion on the consolidation of the newly-acquired subsidiaries.

New projects and assets also contributed towards the increase in depreciation costs.

Operating profit for the group fell 18.3% y-o-y to $41.5 million primarily due to the sharp decline in the group’s aviation revenue.

For FY20, operating profit fell 8.4% y-o-y to $226.2 million.

Share of results from associates/joint ventures registered a loss of $31.2 million, compared to a $8.9 million profit in 4Q19. This was affected by reduced business volumes as well as credit loss and asset impairments made in view of the Covid-19 outbreak.

Share of result from associates/joint ventures fell 80% y-o-y to $11.8 million.

The total credit losses and impairment charges attributable to SATS for 4Q20 came up to $51 million.

The group’s underlying net profit plunged 88.5% y-o-y to $5.6 million, compared to $43.1 million last year.

Group net profit attributable to owners of the company declined 32.2% y-o-y to $168.4 million. The underlying net profit was $180.3 million, a 25.3% decrease y-o-y.

SATS has decided not to pay a final dividend for FY20. This brings the full year dividend to 6 cents.

“This will allow the company to preserve more jobs and capabilities to support our customers as aviation volumes resume, and to pursue opportunities outside of aviation,” it says.

Looking ahead, SATS says it is working to ensure operational continuity and are developing new offerings that include incorporating digital solutions, new food technology, and sustainable packaging.

“The operating environment in the next financial year will be challenging for our aviation related businesses. I would like to recognise our people for the flexibility and resilience that they have shown throughout,” says Alex Hungate, president and CEO of SATS

“We are also grateful for the support that we have received from governments in Singapore and other markets that has helped SATS to retain our deep domain capabilities so that we can ramp up aviation operations with confidence as demand returns,” he adds.

Shares in SATS closed 1 cent lower, or 0.3% down, at $2.88 on Thursday.

Riverstone Holdings outperforms with gloves in high demand, say analysts

Broker's Calls
Jovi Ho Published on Thu, Jul 09, 2020 / 4:11 PM GMT+8 / Updated 15 hours ago

SINGAPORE (Jul 9): Against the backdrop of the Covid-19 pandemic, cleanroom product manufacturer Riverstone Holdings is seeing “outperformance” that is expected to continue into the next quarter.

UOB Kay Hian and CGS-CIMB are maintaining “buy” and “add” on the company respectively, with the latter lifting the target price to $3.90 from $3.12.

The Singapore-listed company will release its 2QFY20 results by early-August. CGS-CIMB analyst Ong Khang Chuen projects a strong net profit of RM72 million ($23.51 million), at 54% q-o-q and 102% y-o-y.

Citing a call with Riverstone Holding’s CEO, UOB Kay Hian analysts Llelleythan Tan and John Cheong expect demand for healthcare gloves to remain robust beyond 2Q2020; a rise in average selling price (ASP); and ample capacity expansion, with the company’s first production line commencing production this month.

“As more countries start to experience [a] second wave of Covid-19 infections, demand for healthcare gloves continues to increase and customers have offered to pay higher prices to secure inventories,” said UOB Kay Hian in a Jul 7 report.

ASP for healthcare gloves are expected to increase by around 10% every month until August then maintaining in September, though CGS-CIMB expects growth in July to taper in the subsequent month, at 20% and 8% m-o-m.

Overall, the “favourable” ASP environment is expected to continue up to 1H2021, “based on customers’ strong indicative demand”, notes UOB Kay Hian.

Riverstone Holdings’ ASP for healthcare gloves have also been given a surprise boost by a new tier pricing for Riverstone’s regular healthcare glove customers (RC), notes UOB Kay Hian.

This month, Riverstone introduced a new tier pricing system for its regular customers. Instead of paying US$25 per thousand pieces for 100 million pieces, regular customers pay US$25 per thousand pieces for the first 40 million pieces.

These customers then pay a mark-up of US$27 per thousand pieces for the subsequent 40 million pieces, and spot prices between US$60-70 per thousand pieces for the remainder of their order.

This new tier system was proposed by regular customers and not Riverstone Holdings, reports UOB Kay Hian.

“As most of Riverstone’s regular customers are glove distributors with hospitals as end-clients, we believe this shows the growing unmet demand for healthcare gloves if regular customers are willing to pay spot prices to ensure they have stock,” say Tan and Cheong.

The company is also making strides on the supply side. After a pause in its capacity expansion in 2Q2020 owing to Malaysia’s movement control order, Riverstone Holdings is expected to commission new production lines gradually starting July, notes CGS-CIMB in a Jul 8 report.

This month, the company will see a single line start production, and a double line will be commissioned every month from August to December this year, reports UOB Kay Hian.

“We estimate [Riverstone Holdings’] total annual production capacity will grow 8% in 2H2020F to 10.6 billion pieces. Additional capacity from the new lines would be sold at spot prices, in our view,” says Ong.

As at 4.05pm, shares in Riverstone Holdings are trading 0.61% or 2 cents lower, at $3.28.

Wednesday, July 8, 2020

Rubber Gloves- Quantum Earnings Leap, Multi-year Re-rating

Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Rubber glove stocks under our coverage have performed well following our upgrade eight months ago. Despite easing off from recent peaks, they remain strong outperformers YTD, led by SUPERMX (+643%), TOPGLOV (+329%), HARTA (+204%) and KOSSAN (+158%). Based on our analysis in this report, we can conclude that: (i) ASP is going to be stubbornly high at least till 1H 2021 which supports exponential QoQ earnings growth over the next few quarters, (ii) share prices of rubber glove stocks moves upwards ahead of two quarters of good results, (iii) gloves stocks trade at +2.0SD based on historical upcycle. All in, we are excited with prospects over the next few quarters due to supply tightness and strong demand. Specifically, industry trend of rising weekly and monthly ASPs is expected to boost bottom-lines. Amplifying the growth are restocking and inventory-building activities creating a supernormal demand spurt leading to acute supply shortage, due to the prolonged pandemic. We have OUTPERFORM calls on HARTA (OP; TP: RM18.16); KOSSAN (OP; TP: RM14.00) SUPERMX (OP; TP: RM14.00) and TOPGLOV (OP; TP: RM25.00). Our Top Pick for the sector is TOPGLOV (OP; TP: RM25.00) due to its ability to raise ASP, and commanding the largest industry capacity.

Based on historical valuation on rapidly rising earnings, rubber glove stocks should trade >+2.0SD. We believe rubber glove stocks deserve further multiple PER re-rating and should trade at above previous peak PER valuations of +2.0SD in tandem with exponential QoQ earnings growth and higher double-digit YoY growth in coming quarters given the following factors:- (i) ASP upticks over the next few months indicating that consensus earnings is potentially trailing, and (ii) re-stocking activities ramp-up as the current outbreak of the pandemic enforces higher hygiene standards, (iii) higher demand due to the pandemic, stock piling and new users following the pandemic, and (iv) massive margins expansion due to higher ASPs.

ASPs higher than earlier guidance. We highlight that industry ASPs for months of June to Dec 2020 is now higher by between 5% to 15%, as opposed to previous expectation of +5% monthly increase from June to Sep 2020 indicating that supply tightness has further propelled ASP higher.

Estimated incoming capacity indicating demand > supply further boost ASP. We have done an analysis to quash any concerns of oversupply. In anticipation of higher demand due to the pandemic, stock piling and new users following the pandemic, players are raising capacities to meet the surging demand. Our analysis (see table overleaf) suggests that acute supply and supernormal demand could persist over the next two years. Interestingly, players are getting orders for new users that include airlines, restaurants, retail apparel chains and hotel operators. If we look at the capacity expansion numbers in isolation, it looks overwhelming. Juxtaposed against the annual demand growth and new pandemic-led demand, the additional capacity is not a concern.

Consensus upgraded earnings by 50%-300% over the past five months. Standing testimony to the increasingly strong prospects of the sector, analysts surveyed by Blomberg Consensus have over the last 5 months consistently upgraded the earnings forecasts for glove players our coverage players such as TOPGLOV, KOSSAN, HARTALEGA and SUPERMX.

Nitrile gloves' market share to gain further momentum with potential 30% growth. Based on our analysis, we expect nitrile gloves to continue growing and expropriating market share from latex gloves. The growth in nitrile segment is evident. For illustration purposes, going forward, assuming nitrile:latex breakdown of 80:20 (currently at 67:37) and based on estimated global demand of 324b pieces in 2020 (forecast for 2019 is 300b pieces and assuming 8% growth rate in 2020), this implies nitrile growth rate of 20% or an additional 42b pieces from switching to nitrile gloves.

TOPGLOV (OP; TP; RM25.00). We highlight that TOPGLOV’s ASPs for months of June to Aug is now higher by between 5% to 15%, as opposed to earlier guidance of +5%, indicating that supply tightness have further propelled ASP higher. However, spot price is about 3x the normal prices of USD28-30/1,000 pieces which accounts for 5%-10% of total allocation. With a diverse customer base, we expect TOPLGOV to have better pricing power and hence potentially higher-than-expected industry average prices.

SUPERMAX (OP; TP; RM14.00). The group is confident of raising ASP by between 5% to 10% each month from June till Dec 2020 indicating that supply tightness have further propelled ASP higher. Specifically, Supermax is expected to gain from higher margins from both its gloves manufacturing and distribution divisions due to higher product mix skewed towards OBM distribution which accounts for 95% compared to 70% pre Covid-19

Source: Kenanga Research - 8 Jul 2020

Tuesday, July 7, 2020

Strong 2H expected for Avi-Tech

Broker's Calls
Samantha Chiew Published on Tue, Jul 07, 2020 / 11:52 AM GMT+8 / Updated 8 hours ago

A+SINGAPORE (July 7): RHB Group Research is keeping its “buy” recommendation on Avi-Tech Electronics with an unchanged target price of 50 cents. The stock is also one of the research house’s top “buy” picks within the semiconductor sector.

See: RHB is bullish on the semiconductor industry

In a Tuesday report, lead analyst Jarick Seet says, “The semiconductor sector’s slowdown has likely bottomed out, and the company’s quarterly performance should improve ahead.”

Avi-Tech earlier this year reported a strong 2Q20, with PATMI increasing by 46.7% y-o-y to $1.4 million. Seet expects growth to continue for the company with a strong 2H20, while overall estimate for FY20 will be a much better year, as earnings likely bottomed out in FY19.

“With the sector slowdown in effect since 2018, we believe the correction has bottomed and from here on the outlook should improve, especially with China and the US having struck a Phase 1 trade deal,” adds Seet.

Avi-Tech’s 2H20 should continue to see a pick up in performance with strong growth from burn-in services, which have much higher gross margins. This, coupled with previously implemented cost-cutting measures, should help improve margins as well. For 2Q20, the company’s gross margins increased significantly to 39.7% from 27.9% in 1Q19.

On the other hand, Avi-Tech is staying alive in this critical industry with a strong net cash position. This along with its strong operating FCF, the management should be able to continue rewarding shareholders with attractive dividends despite a drop in profits in the previous year.

Avi-Tech operates in the burn-in and testing segment of the semiconductor industry and focuses mainly on the automotive sector. The company plays a crucial part in the supply chain, which would see its demand for its services still growing despite a world-wide pandemic still ongoing.

For FY19, a total of 2.3 cents in DPS were declared, translating into a PATMI payout ratio of 84.7%. Due to its strong performance, a higher interim DPS of 1 cent was paid in 2Q20, compared to 0.8 cents a year ago.

“We expect management to reward shareholders with at least the same amount going forward, despite a special dividend given in FY19,” says Seet.

Attractive yield aside, the company’s management is actively exploring M&A opportunities and hopes to close a deal in the near future. And the analyst believes that any potential earnings-accretive M&A should be a positive.

“With a net cash balance sheet and good dividends, we are positive on the stock. Investors have been well rewarded with dividends even when earnings were at the bottom of the cycle,” Seet adds.

As at 11.50am, shares in Avi-Tech are trading at 44 cents or 1.5 times FY20 book with a dividend yield of 5.6%.

Monday, July 6, 2020

蔡金強:滅霸與復仇者聯盟 喜迎香港二次回歸

文章日期:2020年7月6日

【明報專訊】6月30日,全國人大常委會審議通過《港區國安法》。該法從5月的全國兩會到6月底正式推出僅僅1個多月時間,簡直光速,就是趕在七一回歸日之前祭出這個「定海神針」。這次中央決心之大,動作之快,部署之精密,大家有目共睹。尤其是港區國安法細則到了30日晚11時左右才公布,更是一絕,讓反華勢力沒有提前一哭二鬧三上吊的抓手。國安法也得到了以前首鼠兩端的高級人士的公開支持,如八大校長,甚至香港英資。

《港區國安法》具體規則非常強而有力,考慮周詳,從法律漏洞堵住了香港反華勢力擅長的種種把戲,如「永遠寬大為懷的法官」,「不問對錯,只管立場的陪審團」,「精人出口,笨人出手,黑暴與我無關的冷氣軍師們」,「民主萬歲,傷人放火奈我何的免死金牌老外」……小金人年頭在本欄說過,朋友問我香港的政治亂局以後有何不同,很簡單,「反中勢力很快將體驗到對手的天淵之別」。

港區國安法實施 京港掌握主動權

7月1日,香港回歸23年的大日子,反華勢力豈可善罷甘休,大量反中勢力仍出來鬧事,警方共拘捕370人,其中有10人涉嫌違反港區國安法。當天還有黑暴持刀刺傷警察,準備逃遁到英國被捕。還有開車撞向警察的被捕……小金人覺得香港的大局已定,當然國安法會引致英美等的所謂制裁(這事實上是一個極度無恥的邏輯,英美的國安法比誰都齊備,可誰都可以有國安法,就你中國不能弄,難道香港不是政府的領土一部分嗎?難道去年大暴動是在和平民主訴求嗎?真是強盜理論),可制裁能制出啥花樣,香港國安法制度已經建立起來,北京和港府就掌握了主動。未來的暴動未必會煙消雲散,可必然會愈來愈小,不過可能會有更暴力的行為。從我等普通老百姓眼裏,反正期待國安法還香港一個太平,去年的180天大暴動夠了,真夠了!國安法的出台也算反中勢力的求仁得仁,從現實說,香港也需要「二次回歸」,這在去年小金人也經常提及。

還是說回股票吧!近來股市大火,尤其是騰訊(0700)、美團(3690)及拼多多,反觀以前的王者——阿里(9988)就表現落後五條街。

騰訊系今年大報復

要知道馬道長的阿里以前可是傲視其他一切TMT公司,阿里簡直就是一個全能的巨無霸,吊打其他同業騰訊、京東、拼多多、美團。可今年卻是完全反過來,而且阿里表現得毫無還手之力。

相信很多人看過電影《復仇者聯盟4:終局之戰》,阿里就像集齊了無限寶石的滅霸。電影裏,復仇者們被滅霸一人打得七零八碎。復仇者們徹底希望破滅,渾渾噩噩過了5年。5年後,迷失在量子領域的蟻人意外回到現實世界,他的出現為幸存的復仇者們點燃了希望。與美國隊長冰釋前嫌的托尼找到了穿越時空的方法,星散各地的超級英雄再度集結,他們分別穿越不同的時代去搜集無限寶石。現實中,也是一模一樣,2014年到2019年,阿里按着其他對手地上摩擦,幾乎絕望,曾經騰訊,京東都陷入深深危機。可慢慢,2019後,復仇者們回來了,先是去年的京東,然後今年的美團,拼多多,美國隊長騰訊今年也全面蘇醒。

電商難壟斷 阿里大本營岌岌可危

阿里最強的堡壘是它的電商部分,淘寶和天貓GMV曾經佔市場接近八成,這是阿里產業鏈的最強堡壘,如同騰訊系的社交絕對優勢。去年騰訊系的電商GMV規模已經上升到阿里的接近65%。2019自然年阿里巴巴的GMV大約在69000億元(人民幣.下同)。從2020年第一季度單季度來看,規模就更接近了。京東2019年第一季GMV大概是4800億,拼多多3000億,微信小程序2000億,差不多就是10000億,阿里系電商實物淘寶天貓估計12500億,已經去到滅霸的80%,而且增速更快,估計1年後就能接近追平。電商業務雖然得益於線下轉線上的紅利,電商行業的蛋糕變大,但行業的競爭也變得更加激烈。在騰訊系電商群狼圍攻下,阿里的核心電商大本營不再像以前那樣穩固,錢不再那麼好掙了。很明顯,阿里的大本營岌岌可危。

大家以前都以為阿里在電商業務具備很強的壟斷屬性,但是這種壟斷屬性並不是特別強,因為實物電商的上游供應鏈是品牌商,今天的品牌商已經是一個全球化的概念,阿里也許能夠對淘品牌和國內二線品牌挾天子(用戶)以令諸侯(品牌商),但是對國際大牌和國內一線品牌則無能為力,所以華為、小米、蘋果、耐克、阿迪們是可以不受約束多平台供貨開店的。同時,電商平台在流量分配領域屬於下游,他本身的流量並不是很充沛,需要全網購買流量然後進行再分配。實際上,阿里巴巴長期扮演的就是這樣一個流量二道販子的角色,賺的其實是流量批量採購的差價。在PC互聯網時代,阿里巴巴幾乎壟斷了國內流量採購渠道。除了騰訊的社交流量他無法輕易涉足外,中國互聯網流量幾乎全部都為阿里所用。但是隨着移動互聯網崛起,雖然淘寶和支付寶圈住了不少消費人群,但是由於微信的無敵流量隔絕淘寶,抖音快手們也開始自建商城切斷淘寶天貓。阿里的外部流量資源其實是愈來愈緊張的。這些上游流量平台愈發龐大以後,不但切斷阿里的流量採購來源,而且開始發展自己的商城業務,比如抖音小店,快手小店,微信小程序商城等等。也許電商賽道永遠不會真正壟斷,永遠會有新的競爭者出現,永遠不會長期一家獨大強者恒強。這是阿里的命運。

對手分進合擊 阿里麻煩不小

現實中,電商領域的滅霸阿里如果被打敗,不會是被別人打敗,而是被自己。馬道長外名風清揚,崇尚的是飄逸絕妙的巧招,而不是重劍無鋒的硬橋硬馬。可世上最後成見大業的往往就是那些看似枯燥乏味的硬橋硬馬。阿里在物流方面的失策是最明顯的,物流快遞是電商中非常非常重要的一環,阿里直到上市後才開始投資物流建設,實在是太晚了點。另外,阿里可能還是貪心了點,對平台商家太狠了,就像香港的業主,賺再多也不夠交租。雖然今天阿里投資了四通一達,但是時機太晚了,已經錯過了深度綁定物流和平台的時間。

阿里的麻煩不止現在,嚴格上很難有絕招。就像2000年後加入世貿的中國,面對中國和其他新興國家的崛起,美國是很難鉗制的,慢慢直到中國GDP總量達到美國三分之二,美方才氣急敗壞。未來騰訊系是復仇者聯盟們,騰訊這個美國隊長繼續做好社交這塊給其他兄弟們無限導流,美團統治生活服務領域,京東拼多多劍指線上實物零售,兼封住淘寶往四五線城市擴張。阿里的麻煩不小!

(本基金持有騰訊、阿里、美團及拼多多)
奧陸資本總裁兼投資總監
[蔡金強 奧陸之聲]

價值投資法已死?

文章日期:2020年7月6日

近日美股納指破頂,令不少財經專家大跌眼鏡,本欄雖然早於5月初已認定納指並非步入熊市,惟納指能在短短三個月內創新高,確實令不少人感到意外,畢竟全球經濟於短期內難以完全恢復元氣是事實。觀乎今次反彈之急速,確實有點弔詭,奉勸投資者們小心駛得萬年船。

自千禧科網股泡沫至今,不少市盈率偏高但營銷增長顯著的公司,較受市場追捧,愈升愈有;相反,市盈率偏低或資產淨值出現折讓的公司,卻落後於大市。也許如此,以「價值投資」馳名當世的股神巴菲特,近年常被市場人士質疑其投資策略是否已經過時。當價值投資光環漸褪,與此同時,「增長投資」便成了市場寵兒。

首先,大家不妨温故知新,何謂價值投資?引用著名投資者塞斯・克拉爾曼(Seth Karlaman)的說話:「價值投資是購買一支價格低於其內在價值的股票,反之在價格高於其內在價值時賣出的投資策略。在整個過程中,最重要的元素便是要有便宜貨。

相對價值投資,增長投資側重於挑選收入增長超越平均業界水平的股票,因此在分析時,較著眼於公司營業收入增長,並預期增長型股票內含強大資本升值潛力。由於升值潛力純屬預期,而預期又往往未必成真,即公司營業收入增長並不等於公司盈利能力提升,所以增長型股票大多不會同時是價值型股票。

雖則價值投資增長投資的分析重點各有不同,但兩者並不存在誰對誰錯問題。一般來說,價值投資較多適用於分析傳統行業如銀行、地產,這類盈利模式較為穩定的行業,而增長投資則較適合應用於分析新經濟產業如科網和生物科技。

近年價值投資被不少投資者輕視,究其原因,大概可以歸納為以下兩個主因:(1) 科技公司的產品生命週期大都很短,所以科技公司要經常創新推出新產品。由於創新需要花費巨額金錢做科硏,價值投資難以即時反映這類公司的實際盈利能力;

(2) 過往十多年,各大國不停量化寬鬆,間接導致全球出現超低息環境。由於國家債劵所代表的無風險利率實在太低關係,迫使資金流向在險資產,此舉令到不少公司盈利指標,例如市盈率隨之自然上漲,同時導致價值投資法失效。

明報

Sunday, July 5, 2020

What ails the Malaysian property sector


Asia Analytica Published on Fri, Jul 03, 2020 / 6:30 AM GMT+8 / Updated 2 days ago
(July 3): Owning a home is a dream of most Malaysians but, for many, it remains elusive. Loan approvals for residential mortgages have been weak since 2015 (see Chart 1). Yet, property developers continue to build, with large — and rising — stocks of unsold homes. Why are many Malaysians finding homes beyond their reach, despite low interest rates?

We take a look at some of the main dynamics to understand why.

Over the last few years, the Malaysian property market has been characterised by sluggish sales and a rising number of unsold homes. Developers are sitting on large stocks of inventories, which are stretching their balance sheets, funded by borrowings from banks, and the debt and capital markets, including issuing perpetual securities. The sector’s poor outlook is reflected in the low valuation of property stocks, most of which are trading at around one-third book value.

How did this situation come about? There are several key factors: rising home supply and prices, increasing unaffordability and aggressive bank lending.



Home supply and prices

Following the end of the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis, annual home supply growth was moderate, growing mostly 2% to 2.5% a year, increasing to 3.9% to 5.1% from 2006 to 2008 (see Chart 2).

This was partly due to the lack of property speculation, as property prices, as measured by the Malaysian Property House Price Index (MHPI), plunged during the Asian financial crisis and recovered only moderately in the following years.

In the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis, home prices rose again from 2000, but only moderately, with annual price growth of mostly between 1.1% and 4.9% from 2001 to 2009, when the 2008/09 US subprime crisis hit. Thus, between the two major global crises, the housing market was marked by a period of relatively moderate price and supply growth.

In response to the 2008/09 US subprime crisis, though, governments around the world embarked on aggressive quantitative easing, stimulus spending and deep interest rate cuts. These boosted all types of asset classes worldwide, including properties.

In Malaysia, record low interest rates, the lack of a preceding price or supply bubble together with active encouragement by the government then (through home ownership campaigns, allowing the Developer Interest Bearing Scheme, waiver of stamp duties, extending loan tenures and financing limits, among others) combined to create a highly speculative property market from 2010 to 2015 (see Chart 3).



In particular, the cutting of real property gains tax rates, especially for shorter-term disposals, including a total waiver of RPGT from 2007 to 2009, further spurred property speculation (see Chart 4).



During this period, home prices surged for several consecutive years: 5.5% in 2010; 10.9% in 2011; 13.9% in 2012; 11.2% in 2013; 9.4% in 2014; and 7.4% in 2015. From 2009 to 2015, average Malaysian home prices rose a whopping total of 74%.

Rising home prices (and profit margins) led to a building boom by developers. From 2015 to 2019 (with the completion of most homes launched during the speculative period), home supply increased by an annual rate of 3.6%, more than twice the 1.6% annual population growth rate. The result was declining take-up rates and rising inventories.

All in, Malaysia had a total supply of 6.02 million homes in 2019, comprising 5.73 million houses, 38,134 SoHo units and 253,056 serviced apartments. There is now one home for every 5.4 people, compared with the average household size of 4.1 (although the statistics are skewed by foreign workers’ being densely packed in rented homes or hostels).

With shrinking household sizes, population growth and urban migration, demand for homes will continue to grow. However, can Malaysians afford a home?

Home affordability

Home affordability is a major concern, as home prices have surged well ahead of income growth.

In 2019, the average Malaysian home price, as measured by the MHPI, was RM426,155. It ranged from RM785,214 in Kuala Lumpur to below RM200,000 in Melaka, Perlis and Kelantan. The average per capita income was RM45,034.

Chart 4 shows the growth in home prices versus income (measured by real GDP per capita) from 1990 to 2019. In a timeframe of almost 30 years, average home prices have increased by a total of 5.6 times, or a 460% capital appreciation. By comparison, real GDP per capita income has grown by a total of just 2.8 times, or 180%.


The growth in home prices has outpaced that of real income by two times since 1990; in other words, home affordability has halved (Chart 5). It now takes 9.5 years of average annual income to buy an average home, double the 4.7 years that was needed in 1990.



Role of banks

Banks must also bear some responsibility for creating the housing problems, the root of which can be traced back to the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis. The collapse of large conglomerates and bad corporate loans during the crisis pushed banks to diversify their risk profile and rebalance their portfolios. A shift from corporate to consumer lending began, with an aggressive emphasis on home mortgages at low interest spreads.

From 1996 to 2019, residential property loans grew a robust 12.4% a year, well outpacing the banking sector’s annual loan growth of 7.5% (see Chart 6). As a result, its share of total banking loans surged from 12.3% in 1996 to 34.1% in 2019 while business loans fell from 59.3% to 31.2% (see Chart 7), reducing credit availability to more productive sectors.

The aggressive lending for home mortgages fuelled home demand and supply by developers, lifted property prices and created a speculative bubble. For consumers, this led to Malaysians having one of the world’s highest household debt-to-GDP ratios at more than 80% (see Chart 8), fuelled by loans for homes, cars and personal spending.



Concluding remarks

What is the primary purpose of housing to society? It is to serve the purpose of providing a shelter or a home for individuals and families. Of course, it also directly and indirectly creates jobs and business activities.

Having shelter, whether by ownership or rent, is a fundamental human right, but it is being challenged on several fronts: home prices that have risen well ahead of income growth; the high cost of living in Malaysia; highly indebted households; and a banking sector that is already overexposed to housing mortgages and property developers.

Yet, proposed solutions to the current predicament of a property glut and soft demand for the struggling property industry remain the same old ideas, which caused the current problems of high unsold inventories and rising unaffordability in the first place. These include easing financing for buyers, extending mortgage tenures, concessions on taxes and duties, and marketing campaigns with freebies.

The other solution articulated by some is that those who cannot afford to own a home should rent instead.

Rent is an expense and rises as house prices appreciate, further diminishing the savings of those who are already poor. It perpetuates a class division between the landlords and the tenants. Those with capital buy homes with a deposit, and the mortgages are paid for using the rentals earned from those who cannot afford to buy. Those who believe in this solution lack intellectual capacity, or are intellectually dishonest.

A major strategic rethink is needed to structurally address these issues. We need to move away from the demand-side solutions of the past to start finding a solution on the supply side. Look out for our ideas in the coming weeks.

The Global Portfolio gained marginally, by 0.4%, for the week ended July 2, slightly lagging the MSCI World Net Return Index, which was up 1.5%. Total portfolio returns now stand at 18.3% since inception. Nevertheless, this portfolio is outperforming the benchmark index, which is up 10.3% over the same period.

Technology stocks, by and large, continued to fare very well. Shares in Adobe, ServiceNow, Microsoft, Alphabet and Apple all ended higher for the week. On the other hand, Vertex Pharmaceuticals saw mild profit-taking after its strong gains over the past two weeks. Other losers include Alibaba Group Holding, BMC Stock Holdings and Builders FirstSource.

Click here to view the charts in detail

Disclaimer: This is a personal portfolio for information purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or solicitation or expression of views to influence readers to buy/sell stocks, including the particular stocks mentioned herein. It does not take into account an individual investor’s particular financial situation, investment objectives, investment horizon, risk profile and/or risk preference. Our shareholders, directors and employees may have positions in or may be materially interested in any of the stocks. We may also have or have had dealings with or may provide or have provided content services to the companies mentioned in the reports.

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RHB is bullish on the semiconductor industry

Broker's Calls
Samantha Chiew Published on Fri, Jul 03, 2020 / 2:37 PM GMT+8 / Updated 1 days ago
SINGAPORE (July 3): RHB Group Research is keeping its “overweight” rating on the technology sector as the semiconductor industry is expected to see a recovery. Sustained capital equipment spending and the global memory rebound can be expected for 2H20, too.

In a Friday report, lead analyst Jarick Seet says, “Inventories are stabilising, and dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) pricing is likely to rise. SEMI also expects equipment sales to grow 5.5% y-o-y to US$60.8 billion in 2020, on advance logic and foundry spending and new projects in China.”

Meanwhile, chip sales have bottomed out, and should improve. But Seet does not expect a V-shaped recovery, as moderated growth is more plausible.

As the demand for working-from-home increases on the back of global lockdowns, the semiconductor industry is likely to see an increase in demand, mainly from could and computers. Other segments like smartphones and Internet of Things (IoT) continue to enjoy strong demand globally.

The drive towards 5G has also increased the demand for communications infrastructure. Other segments include artificial intelligence, the automotive sector, as well as the high-performance computing segments.

Against this backdrop, RHB has chosen Avi-Tech Electronics, Frencken and Fu Yu as its top “buy” picks within the semiconductor industry. Seet also expects the three companies to report positive results, as these companies are positioned to benefit from the uptrend in semiconductor demand.

Already, Avi-Tech reported a strong 2Q20, with PATMI surging 46.7% y-o-y to $1.4 million.

“The semiconductor sector’s slowdown has likely bottomed out for the company, and its quarterly numbers should improve ahead. FY20 should be a much better year, with earnings having likely bottomed in FY19,” says Seet.

As for Frencken, its share price has exceeded the analyst’s target price and he is now waiting for an update on the company’s key customer before reviewing estimates and target price.

Frencken’s management has also remained bullish on its outlook, as it stands to benefit from its key customer’s new product in the industrial automation segment for FY20, despite expecting a drop for 1Q20.

With more new projects in the medical and consumer and automotive fronts ahead, Fu Yu is expected to see its positive growth momentum continue from FY21 onwards. Although the company experienced a blip in FY20 due to the Covid-19 pandemic, Fu Yu is still expected to weather the storm, thanks to its robust net cash and balance sheet.

“Also, it should still be able to reward its investors with attractive dividends, despite a temporary drop in profits this year. Fu Yu is also an attractive target for privatisation or acquisition,” says Seet.

As at 2.35pm, shares in Avi-Tech are trading at 42 cents; Frencken at 92 cents and Fu Yu at 24 cents.

Friday, July 3, 2020

50年股海经验终极方案 冷眼授招创富保富





冷眼:很多人都是投机心态无法守城,所以难以致富。

【专访基本面大师冷眼/上篇】

独家报道:林妤芯

(吉隆坡2日讯)大马股市基本面大师冷眼(冯时能)阔别近4年再度出书支招,献出自身50年实战经验的投资终极方案,以创造财富(创富)及保住财富(保富)两大秘诀,协助投资者在股海累积财富以达到财务自由。

他强调:“做任何投资,没有赚钱都不能称得上成功。”

冷眼是配合其7月1日出版的《决战股市:终极方案》,接受《南洋商报》专访时,针对其新著和近期股市走势,分享心得。

他认为,投资股市有两个因素决定成败,即对上市公司认识的深浅,及能否克服诸如缺乏耐心、恐惧股市下跌不敢进场、跟风等人性的弱点。

“目前没有任何统计,多少人成功利用股市累积财富,但根据中国股市‘721’魔咒,10个散户7个亏钱,2个不赚不亏,剩下一个才赚钱,所以平均90%的散户都失败。”

他说能够笑傲“股海”的散户确实太少,只有区区10%,所以一直都在思考应当如何打破这个局面,解除“721”魔咒,提高股海成功率,实现“127”成功法则,即1个失败2个持平7个赚钱。

年均复增累积财富

“很多人都是投机心态无法守城,所以难以致富。”

冷眼多年来大量阅读书籍,参考国内外投资策略,加上在马股“冲浪”50年的投资心得与实战经验,进而总结出终极投资方案,即创富及保富。

“创富的首要条件,就是用对方法选对股,财富从何而来,不外乎赚到钱,继续投资利滚利,所以年均复增(CAGR)很重要,只有复利高才能更快累积财富。”

冷眼披露,终极方案是结合了“创富方案GDP”及“保富方案PRC”,判定股项是否值得投资,一旦分数低于50分及格水平,则不考虑买进。

创富方案GDP是指:增长(Growth)、股息(Dividend)及本益比(PER)。

而保富方案PRC则是:赚幅(Profit Margin)、平均投资回酬率(ROE)及现金流(Cash Flow)。

“GDP的目标是让散户能在股海中胜多败少赚多亏少,只有胜多赚多,才有可能保富成功。”

冠病非末日

选对股再进场

2019冠状病毒病虽冲击股市,但冷眼相信,世界并没有末日,现在要做的是善用创富方案选对好股,伺机进场。

“这场疫情并非世界末日,病毒终究会过去,只是需要时间,所以投资者无需惊慌失措,反而应该镇定下来。”

他直言,这场疫情是百年一遇的大流行病,而此前影响全人类最严重的是1918年流感大流行,也称西班牙流感,当时造成约四分之一的世界人口,即5亿人染病。

“西班牙流感到现在的冠病刚好百年,我原先没有想到,这次疫情会那么严重,甚至影响到全球经济,更被国际货币基金(IMF)下修今年的经济增长预测。”

国际货币基金上周下修全球经济增长预估,预期全球经济今年萎缩4.9%,超过4月时预期的萎缩3%,同时也把我国今年经济增长预测,从先前的萎缩1.7%,进一步下砍至萎缩3.8%。

全球为阻断冠病传播,多国落实锁国政策,经济活动停止,冷眼指出企业倒闭潮已经发生。

“现金流不足或周转不灵的企业,自然没有办法生存,而那些能在这场疫情生存下来的公司,将来自然能有亮眼表现。”

未来1年买进良机

收益或需守候2年

冷眼指出,未来半年至1年是买进的良机,不过要做好心理准备,至少得耐心守候2年才能开花结果。

“今年是买进的机会,此时大部分公司都亏本,股价自然跟着走低,只要做好选择性投资,挑选能够在这场疫情后复原的上市公司,耐心等上两年,自然会有收获。”

马股有近千只股,询及选股策略时,他说那些在疫情前就没有获利的公司自然可排除。

“排除基本面本来就差的股,我们就关注那些受(疫情)影响最大的股项,但一定要有好的基础,免疫力(复原力)强的公司。”

冷眼披露,上市公司的今明两年的业绩铁定会受疫情影响而走软甚至亏损,所以在选股标准时,不能以这两年的业绩做为参考基准。

“建议可选取以2019年的过去5年业绩做比较。”

他说,股市无法预测,唯有反向思考,低价进场才是王道。

如何选好股?

●会赚钱:营业额和盈利持续增加

●有派息:相等于股票存款,且派息稳自由现金流也强劲

●本益比低:回本时间快

●利润高:低利润无利可图

●ROE高:反映管理层善用公司资金为股东赚回酬

●现金流稳:现金周转不灵最易破产

Tuesday, June 30, 2020

[转贴] 正齐科技 MI – 企业分享会 - RH Research

正齐科技 MI – 企业分享会
  • Batu Kawan厂房已准备就绪,不过因为疫情的关系,启动计划从原本的Q1延迟至Q2。于去年到期的新兴工业地位 (Pioneer Status) 已获得延长5年至2024年1月,也就是说在期间可享有税收减免。
  • 大约90%的销售来自出口市场,其中5位客户的贡献占整体收入的60%左右。其外国客户群包括ASE、Amkor、Intel、Qualcomm、Broadcom、Qorvo等等,而本地部分客户群则是Inari、Carsem和Unisem。
  • 在疫情期间,其业务在3月处于完全停工的状态,而且还不能运输。4月逐渐恢复至25-50%,直到5月才100%复工。无法出国与客户谈生意是现阶段的最主要问题,需要一段时间才能逐渐将整体效率恢复到正常水平。
  • “不确定性”是半导体行业最担心的因素。中美贸易战的升温导致很多企业无法提供指引,主要因为当前的局势随时可出现转变。简短而言就是大家对未来展望没有任何想法,在资本开销方面无法作出决定。
  • 之前已下单的客户不敢取消,因为如果之后重新下单,需要再等上一段时间。然而,下半年的订单透明度暂时还很疲弱。
  • 其业务的未来前景将由5大趋势驱动,分别是5G、物联网、高效计算和人工智能。举个例子,旗下AI系列的机器主要用于处理渺小和复杂的芯片,如TSMC的7nm或者更小的芯片。今年9月将在台湾展览会上推广。
  • 至于Autobotics业务,整体贡献仍然非常小,现阶段还处于研发当中。可以专注的领域非常广,其中包括半导体、汽车、智能城市、医疗等等,因此认为其贡献很大可能将在未来超越现有业务,不过或许需要10年或以上。
  • 未来的趋势工业4.0将需要很高级的自动设备,以减少劳工数量。以旗下Kobot系列为例,以往2台机器需要1位员工来操作,不过在完成安装后,1位员工即可操作6台机器。
  • 虽然不能100%确保技术的知识产权不会被第三方抄袭,但是并未过度担心,因为在保护私隐方面已做得充足。即使同行拉拢内部工程师跳槽,也仅能得到一小部分而已。
  • 回顾2013年,当时是首家推出旋转式 (Rotary) 分拣机器的企业。虽然竞争对手之后也研发相同的机器,但是已处于落后的位置。如果想要一直处于领先地位,就必须以全新的技术来研发新产品,不能追随别人的步伐。
总结,MI已拟定未来5年的大蓝图,而目前正处于正确的方向。然而,由于受到疫情影响,加上下半年订单透明度疲弱,恐怕需要至少半年时间恢复至去年盈利水平。

此外,Autobotics业务仍处于研发阶段,需要继续烧钱,而且新厂房的折旧开销也将开始进账。有兴趣者不需要急着追高买入,可耐心等待回调才考虑出手。

#MI
纯属分享!

[转贴] 5分钟看懂AEONCR(5139) Q1 2021季报 & 股东大会详情 - ~ 第一天



2020年6月29日星期一

那天出业绩和股东大会的时候,正好天哥也生病了,所以也先休息为主,养好身体后再打算,而也有朋友问起关于这个季度的报告怎么看,有鉴于此,我就稍微简单的写一写,方便有持有该股的朋友可以看看和一起交流。

好了,废话少说,这个季度是今年第一个季度的报告,所以这个季度的报告如下。。

Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31 May 2020

AEON CREDIT SERVICE (M) BERHAD


Financial Year End 28 Feb 2021
Quarter 1 Qtr
Quarterly report for the financial period ended 31 May 2020
The figures have not been audited

Attachments

ACSM - Quarterly Results for the First Quarter ended 31.05.2020.pdf
581.8 kB


Default Currency
Other Currency
Currency: Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)


SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION
31 May 2020

INDIVIDUAL PERIOD
CUMULATIVE PERIOD

CURRENT YEAR QUARTER
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
QUARTER
CURRENT YEAR TO DATE
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
PERIOD

31 May 2020
31 May 2019
31 May 2020
31 May 2019


$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
1 Revenue
385,272
378,588
385,272
378,588
2 Profit/(loss) before tax
37,086
112,668
37,086
112,668
3 Profit/(loss) for the period
26,279
84,600
26,279
84,600
4 Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent
26,279
84,600
26,279
84,600
5 Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit)
10.29
32.69
10.29
32.69
6 Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER
AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
7 Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$)
6.0100
6.1400








从表面看来,营业额依然是非常美的,虽然3-5月是大马MCO最严重的时候,但是这段时期的营业额是继续保持着增长的,所以基本上算是不错了。但是值得注意的是,其实该股虽然营业额越来越多,生意越做越大,但是该股的净利上,却跌得让人无法接受,单单这样看,最少也跌了6-70%,到底是什么情况他的业绩下跌那么多呢?



这张图就清晰得多,从该股的营业额来看,我们不难发现其实是有在成长的,但是罪魁祸首OPERATION EXPENSES,居然大涨了25多%左右,这个就是他业绩下跌的主要原因,所以当支出突然那么高的情况底下,净利肯定萎缩的,而且随着生意做得更大,我们留意到他的利息支出上是大增了22%左右的,但是这个问题不大,羊毛出在羊身上,利息支出多,生意收入自然多的,只是被他的EXPENSES拖垮,导致他的净利才会大力萎缩。其实他过去几个季度都是一样的情况,唯一要明白的是,为何支出会大增?其实上几个季度我们也弄懂了,他主要是财报准则改变,所以impairment增加了而已,而这个季度恐怕就是因为MCO而有让顾客暂延还款所致,所以等下我们找找看数据变化如何。。


他的长期借贷是变少了,主要原因应该是这几个月没有新生意来的缘故吧,但是他的短期借贷是增加的,而且比长期贷款增加的幅度更多,所以整体来说是好事,而且他的现钱也变得更多,所以也是好事来的,最起码有更多的子弹可以熬得过这一轮风暴。


但是债务也是有增加的,但是羊毛出在羊身上,这些是没办法的,要扩充生意,这个就必须的。而短期债务是变少了,长期债务则变多了,总的来说还是有增加咯,就看自己怎么看了。而每股净值其实是变少的,所以其实并不是什么好事来的。



这个是现金流表,其实是OK的WOR,只不过他真的祸不单行,之前是因为换了财报准则的缘故,所以做了很多的impairment,而今年又遇到MCO,做更多=。=,真的是一波未平一波又起呢,不过公司管理钱方面也很谨慎,这个季度他借贷出去的钱有变少了少许,所以借贷公司一般上都是把钱借出去才对的,他还现金流正数,所以基本上是借出去都很谨慎了。。


这个是管理层给的年度prospect,大家也可以看看。

而24号那天,其实公司正好是股东大会,所以以下内容也是我在网络的股东大会收集到的信息记录起来,方便大家查阅。



-AEONCR 2020财政年,获得22.7%的总交易和借贷(T & F)成长。主要的成长业务为 Auto Financing (32.2%),信用卡(25.6%),电单车借贷 (25.4%)和objective Financing(20.5%)。而在2021财政年,碍于COVID的影响,所以公司会尽可能的协助顾客,从而让公司可以不影响借贷组合素质的前提下前进。

-公司有在4月1日至5月31日这两个月,允许顾客暂延还款。也让信用卡顾客,可以把余额转换成36个月的分期贷款。从4月开始,总共有3500位左右的顾客从他们的信用卡余额转换成36个月的分期贷款。

-至于其他类别的贷款,只要不是超过90天的呆账,都自动延缓2个月的还款日期。总延缓贷款的数目,总共占总组合的4.8%。而信用卡则占2.6%顾客转换余额至36个月的分期贷款。

-公司的NPL依然保持稳定,即使是因为MCO而导致暂延还款。

-以2020年财政年为例,公司的22.7%总交易和借贷成长,有好一部份都来自于M40顾客群,当中包括个人借贷,高端电单车借贷,高端自行车借贷,新车于日本二手车借贷和platinum信用卡等等,都是公司成长的动力。

-公司的e wallet跟市场上的对手走不一样的路线,公司主要定位于retail layalty e-wallet,受惠于aeon和aeonbig强劲的品牌和市场。未来也会透过这个wallet提供一些借贷上的服务,包括提供pre approval limit给符合资格的顾客。

-目前公司的政策专注在让前aeon 会员转变成AEON MEMBER PLUS VISA CARD的顾客,也鼓励顾客下载公司的AEON WALLET,公司也从这些交易中赚取费用,而且这些顾客的资料让公司可以更准确的提供更多顾客需要的借贷或服务,从而增长公司的业绩。

-公司当下的电单车借贷,市占率为大概30%。而公司在2020财政年,也开始把业务扩充至healthcare,自行车,按摩椅和其他零售产品的借贷。未来,公司希望把贷款批准的时间继续缩短,目标为30分钟以内可以完成借贷程序。

-公司接下来会专注在数码化所有的程序和效率,包括robotic process,未来如果有机会,公司也可能会参与电子/虚拟银行的竞标。

-公司的借贷成本为3.16-4.49%。而国家银行降低OPR,对公司的借贷成本是有正面的帮助。



AEONCR 5139 RM9.45 (29-6-2020)
PE : 10.26+-
DY : 3.84%+-
ROE : 15.33%+-
从公司上面的价格图表来说,其实真的会吓一跳,因为几年下来的涨幅,在短短1年里面,就全部回吐了,但是这个也没办法,毕竟近期COVID的缘故,公司的生意真的很难做,生意是做得更大,但是净利却变少,虽然目前这些账目还没变成呆账,但是公司已经做了impairment,就看最后能否收得回,如果收得回,那么未来的业绩就靠谱了,但是还是有赌博的风险了,就要继续观察公司接下来的账目会怎么做了,不过最严峻的一期业绩(MCO期间)已经出炉,也符合了预期,那么接下来只要不太弱,都会慢慢恢复,相信都是好的。而目前来说,股价已经开始有吸引力了,只不过就看我们自己是否要承受风险了,毕竟目前还不明朗,财有这样的价格,如果未来明朗了业绩是真的恢复,那么就没这样的价格了,反之如果未来业绩是往更糟糕的方向进发,自然价格会更糟糕,所以我才说有赌博的风险。而个人而言,目前我持票是不少的,所以没有冲动让我继续增持,我会继续守着,等待复苏就好。除非该股的股息更高,或者开始复苏,才会考虑是否增持。目前而言我个人比较倾向与高息股。而这只股来说,如果真的要买,个人认为暂时是有一定的价值的,但是不宜ALL IN,分批慢慢累积或许是一个不错的选择,当然,就看自己是要承受风险,还是等一切明朗化后买更贵了,投资本来就是GIVE AND TAKE的~。~

写这篇文章的时候我个人是持有该公司股份,但是请别看到我的文章就胡乱以为我叫你买或卖,整篇文章并没有任何买卖建议,或推高股压低价的其他企图,单纯分享我的功课,本人怒不对你的盈亏负任何责任,谢谢。


你的一个小小的like或share,是让我们用心整理更多好文章的最佳鼓励和动力哦^。^
HAPPY INVESTING
BY ~ 第一天


https://windscopo.blogspot.com/2020/06/5aeoncr5139-q1-2021.html

Panasonic - Weaker Demand Anticipated

KEY INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS

  • FY20 earnings below expectation
  • FY20 normalised net profit was marginally higher at RM111.2m
  • 4QFY20 normalised earnings dipped by 1.4%yoy to RM25.2m
  • FY21F/FY22F earnings revised in anticipation of potentially weaker demand ahead
  • Maintain NEUTRAL with a revised TP of RM29.62

FY20 earnings below expectation as normalised net profit of RM111.2m made up 93% of our full year estimates but was largely within consensus’ forecast at 104%. We have excluded foreign exchange gain from our normalised PAT. A dividend of 183.0sen was declared, falling short of the 230.0sen we had anticipated.

FY20 normalised net profit was marginally higher at RM111.2m as revenue fell by 6.7%yoy to RM1052.0m. Panasonic Manufacturing Malaysia Bhd (Panasonic)’s net profit was largely unchanged albeit a dip in revenue mainly due to lower raw material cost and lower advertising and promotional costs. For the full year fan products and others saw PBT dropped by 15.1%yoy to RM67.3m although home appliances PBT rose 12.0%yoy to RM67.1m. Sales in Malaysia declined by 11.0%yoy to RM426.6m while it improved in Asia ex Malaysia and Japan by 2.0%yoy to RM356.5m.

4QFY20 normalised earnings dipped by 1.4%yoy to RM25.2m as revenue fell by 28.9%yoy to RM204.7m. Revenue fell due to weaker demand from home appliances (-12.4%yoy) and fan products (- 6.3%yoy). Geographically, local and exports to Asia ex Japan and Malaysia declined by 15.4% and 10.2% respectively. Net profit did not decline as sharply as revenue due to lower raw material cost and lower advertising and promotional expenses.

FY21F/FY22F earnings revised in anticipation of potentially weaker demand ahead. As we expect consumer sentiment to remain cautious amid the pandemic and in view of lockdowns that occurred in the various countries that Panasonic exports to, we think that sales may be sluggish in 1QFY21. Moreover, its factory has halted operations during the Movement Control Order (MCO). As such, we revise our FY21F and FY22F earnings forecasts downwards by -30.8% and -14.2% respectively. Cushioning the drop in sales will be lower raw material costs.

Target price. Our target price is revised to RM29.62 (previously RM30.66) which is based on pegging the FY22F EPS of RM2.11 per share to PER of 14.0x. The assigned PER multiple, which is the group’s three year average historical PER, is unchanged.

Source: MIDF Research - 30 Jun 2020

Hartalega - PE to normalize to 15 after accounting for full year explosive results. TP upgraded to RM24.80.

Author: PelhamBlackFund | Publish date: Wed, 24 Jun 2020, 12:43 AM

Hartalega's FY21 full year earnings is expected to leapfrog to RM2.8bil or EPS of RM0.83/share.

Superior margin ahead of its peers

TopGlove's profit is expected to jump by 5% for every 1% hike in ASP. Hartalega's profit is expected to jump 11% for every 1% hike in ASP. This is due to extreme efficiencies at NGC plant compared to its peers. Hartalega's plant are almost 100% automated.

ASP hike of 35% - 40% for June

Net profit to jump 350% - 400% from June and onwards. Assuming a 35% hike in ASP, Harta's net profit is expected to jump by 385%. Net profit for next quarter is expected to be between RM450mil - RM600mil.

Largest base in US

Harta's base in US is 55%. Compared to its peers, its the largest.

Antimicrobial glove catalyst

Game changer for Harta. No other big 4 glove companies is able to produce antimicrobial glove at a mass scale. This gloves has already been sold in Europe. Once FDA is obtain by year end, Harta is expected to command another premium to its share price.

Director acquisition of shares

Compared to its peers, only Harta's directors/founders have been acquiring shares at high prices. This is a strong sign that the management has absolute confidence in the company.

Valuation

Harta is undervalued compared to its peers at current valuation of 15x FY21 PE. Ascribe a 30x FY21 PE to arrive at RM24.80.

We believe Harta fully deserves to be the largest market cap company in Malaysia.

Monday, June 29, 2020

蔡金強:內房困局:蛇無頭而不行

文章日期:2020年6月29日

【明報專訊】過去一個來月,寫了很多集關於政治的話題,小金人自己都有點厭,本來今天想聊聊中國北斗衛星導航系統與美國GPS競爭,或者海外鬼扯三峽大壩危險(美國胡佛大壩衛星圖像其實更為傾斜,大壩、道路、橋樑例牌歪曲,這是衛星視像曲線慣常,所謂長江世紀洪水的流量只有1998年大洪水時的一半都沒有)。算了,今天不想說這些沉重的話題,世間最不能直視的唯陽光和人心,今天重回投資話題。

環球股市歌舞昇平了兩三個月,美國納斯達克甚至創了新高,香港也很多新經濟股票創了新高。可舊經濟股斯人獨憔悴,銀行、保險、地產、原材料、澳門賭業、交通、汽車這些板塊通通乏人問津,錢全部流到新經濟那邊去,哪怕虧損,哪怕鬼扯,背後事實上是對經濟前景的極度沒信心,覺得這些舊經濟公司的估值毫無可能維持。

投資要「趁勢」 孤芳自賞只宜小注

事實上,這是很搞鬼的,如果明年經濟崩盤,汽車、房子就沒人買?難道李寧(2331)的衣服,兩千一瓶的茅台,淘寶/京東(9618)這些線上零售商,還有那些燒錢維生的醫藥股就能活得好好嗎?小金人說這些,不是想辯駁,市場的東西沒什麼好反駁的,現在的我不也一樣傾注主要心神在這些新經濟板塊上嗎?資本市場來說,「趁勢」還是核心功力,孤芳自賞只適宜中小注碼。

小金人以前是地產板塊研究出身,如要在價值板塊留一奇兵,我還是會選內房。內房素來beta極高,兩三年一個大行情,2016、2017是十年一遇大行情,當時不少內房漲了三四倍,最耀眼的當屬融創(1918)、恒大(3333)、碧桂園(2007)

內房股奇兵特徵仍在

2018、2019尚有新城(1030)、奧園(3883)、時代(1233)、龍光(3380)這些燦爛奪目的新星,倍漲者也有一些。進入2020年,全球亂了套,美國全面圍剿中國,加上全球新冠疫情,股市deep-v形狀暴跌暴漲,圍堵傳統價值板塊乏人問津。

今年以來內房最耀眼的也就金地商置(0535)、建發(1908)、世茂(0813)、合景(1813)這些,要不就是前者的均好型新星,要不就是後者的物管分拆。其他公司股價通通疲不可興,管你是中海(0688)、潤地(1109)、萬科(2202),還是恒大、融創、碧桂園……市場通通沒興趣。小金人已經說了,投資者在市場面前無法逆勢而行,所以能做的只能是「中小注」孤獨的留守。如果你真對基本面有信心,對這家公司的銷售增長,盈利增長,財務狀况,分紅有把握,而這家公司現有估值只是三四倍市盈率,7至8厘分紅率,那就當一隻奇兵吧!孤獨的留守吧!應該會有驚喜的。大部隊還是得趁勢!

市場喜新厭舊今年特別嚴重

投資內房的朋友不少很沮喪,他們不明白,新舊經濟冰火兩重天也不是今年的事,為何今年特別嚴重,內房整體這麼疲不可興。很多人覺得是政策,絕對鬼扯,別說政府不放鬆等等,放什麼鬆,房地產是國內現有少數還能掙錢的行業,別說龍頭一年掙兩三百億人民幣,中大型的一年三五十億也比比皆是,這在國內的企業絕對是天文數字。所以,政策總體是不會緊,也不會鬆,大體平穩,資金面略好。別分析那些漫天遍地的各種所謂政策,很容易精神錯亂。銷售增長和盈利增速今年也不算差,上市房企今年應該還能有個單位數的增長,不錯啦!今年疫情下這種增速挺光榮了。那為啥內房股價不漲了?小金人覺得一個是市場喜新厭舊,喜歡新經濟厭惡舊經濟,導致板塊沒有增量資金,這不是一天兩天的事了;今年特殊情况是內房板塊沒有帶頭大哥,沒有龍頭帶隊,俗話說,蛇無頭而不行,沒有帶頭表現,能吸引市場主力資金的龍頭股,內房很容易一潭死水,今年就是這樣。

世茂合景金地商置難帶起行業

今年以來,內房傳統龍頭:萬科、中海、潤地,還是新興龍頭:恒大、融創、碧桂園等,除了龍湖(0960)還有點力以外,其他全線熄火,連新城也熄火。帶隊的任務落到世茂、合景、金地商置、建發這些身上,這不是為難了它們嗎?除了世茂個頭和市值較大,其他幾個都是內房中小型股。這種情况下,這些股票的好表現不足以吸引新的資金進入內房板塊,這才是內房最大的問題。

那在這些新舊龍頭裏,為何熄火呢?首先,內房的帶頭大哥不好當,內房不是當時得令的板塊,相反還有點道德原罪,很容易被政府不待見,尤其民企,這種情况下,傳統龍頭中可以預見會以沉悶姿態示人的,有萬科、碧桂園,甚至中海,也就是一年5%至10%盈利增速,而且口氣很保守,當然5%至10%在現在事實上也是不錯的,可投資者覺得不夠喉。恒大玩的是格局,不存在分析可言。碰巧今年融創也在休整,也就是快速幾年增長後的休息,所以很安靜,而華潤置地也因為管理層大量換血,加上銷售引導偏保守而力有不逮去lead整個板塊。龍湖一直是優等生,可流動性不足,而且估值有不少溢價。

融創潤地分拆物管 年底料再熱鬧起來

小金人覺得內房家裏無大人,小孩一團亂的局面在年底或者明年頭會有較大改善。首先,融創和華潤置地應該能回歸,兩者在休整過後,應該能重拾較強的銷售增速,而且兩者年底都有物管分拆,都相當龐大,市值應該都在三四百億港元。而且估值實在是匪夷所思的便宜。如果兩者能回歸,配合仍獨立支撐的龍湖,那就能形成新的合力。再加上一直很優秀的旭輝(0884)、龍光、時代、奧園、世茂、合景這些,板塊就會耀眼起來。

所以內房今年以來的疲不可興並不是什麼政策不政策、催化劑、驚喜啥的。正常板塊,你每天要驚喜,要催化劑,驚什麼喜?三四倍2020市盈率能再有什麼大催化劑?說預期就更傷感情了,誰有什麼預期?不是已經沒有太多人關注了嘛?還預什麼期?老實說,內房現在是家裏沒大人,小孩亂成一鍋粥,自然也就沒人待見!等等吧,大人快回來了!

(作者基金持有融創、金地商置、時代中國等內房)
奧陸資本總裁兼投資總監
[蔡金強 奧陸之聲]

潘啓才:凱升似想供乾 值得期待

文章日期:2020年6月29日

【明報專訊】去年4月,周焯華出任主席的太陽城集團(1383),以每股1.94元,向凱升主要股東郭人豪及益航股份收購其共約3.7億股股份,涉及7.19億元的凱升控股(0102)24.68%股權,持股量增至27.97%,成為凱升主要股東。收購資金由周焯華私人早前借予公司的15億元無抵押貸款融資支付。其實太陽城於較早前已持有凱升3.29%股份,並已委派董事盧啟邦進入凱升董事會。

周焯華重金買來 應有後着

如果再翻查歷史,其實凱升於2013年獲新濠(0200)主席何猷龍入股,成為主要股東,並赴俄羅斯開賭場,轉型為博彩股。

但何猷龍於2017年12月全數出售手上的凱升股份予郭人豪,並退任凱升主席及非執行董事。

當周焯華在去年4月花掉7億多元入主凱升後,為了加速業務發展,在3個月後,馬上按每股1.01元,配售了3億股新股,佔經擴大後已發行股本約16.63%,淨籌2.97億元,用於進一步發展在俄羅斯綜合娛樂區的酒店及博彩業務。

料似翻炒太陽城上次供股

當然周生用重金買回來的凱升不會就此停下來,為了顯示他的雄心壯志,他再度出招,於今年6月2號,出了一份通告,董事會建議以二供三方式,供股價為0.6元,扣除開支後,集資約16.23億元。

這次供股有兩點需要留意:第一,作為大股東的太陽城及其相關人士,根據不可撤銷承諾,已承諾參與供股,此外,周生旗下的公司也承諾出任包銷商,包銷所有不獲股東認講的供股股票,如果參考公司近期股價走勢,無論在公告供股的前後,股價基本上維持在0.58至0.59元之間,這種格局,根據過往經驗,周生擺到明想借這次供股,把凱升供乾,才去做世界,有點翻炒太陽城上次供股的經驗。

對於我們,搵到一隻快要被供乾的股票,當然是一件好事,而更重要一點,在現今唔算好的市况,有能力供乾一隻股票,在在顯示大股東周生實力雄厚,因為這次供股,如果想供乾,唔想小股東參與供股,周生要自己出資近16億港元。

既然周生有此雄厚實力,我們對供股完成後的股價走勢,當然會有所期望。

www.phemey.com
[潘啓才 通天財技]

Saturday, June 27, 2020

银行股估值历史新低·杰富瑞:卖手套·买银行


(吉隆坡26日讯)分析师认为,亚洲区域的冠状病毒病疫情已逐渐缓和,投资者可考虑采取新投资策略,沽售套利股价高涨的手套股,转向买进估值降至历史新低的银行股,以“一出一进”双向投资策略,等待银行股下一波周期涨潮的降临。

跨国投行杰富瑞(Jefferies)在报告中指出,适逢冠病疫情期间,大马手套股获得追逐热捧而取得极标青的股价表现,反观银行则朝反方向挫跌。

今年至今
3大手套股涨200%
金融指数崩跌17%

该机构策略师克里斯多夫伍特指出,3大手套股今年至今涨幅已超过200%,同期富时大马金融指数则崩跌17%。

他认为,目前此“一涨一跌”的趋势可能出现逆转,所以可能是时候“转码头”,沽出手套股,买进银行股。
















黄氏艾芬:加码手套
减持银行金融

不过,艾芬黄氏研究分析员却另有看法,它仍然建议持续“加码”手套股以及“减持”银行及金融股。

“虽然手套股今年至今股价最亮眼,但我们继续看好手套股的股价还有上涨空间,这主要是获得强劲盈利成长的支撑与挹注,预料它们今年下半年的盈利将更强劲,特别是疫情时期胶手套需求大增,使胶手套公司有能力及条件上调产品的售价。”

目前,手套公司多已腾出部份产能以攫取现货订单需求,这些现货订单的价格往往比正常订单价格高出至少2至3倍。艾芬黄氏的首选手套股为顶级手套(T O P G L O V,7113,主板医疗保健组)及贺特佳(HARTA,5168,主板医疗保健组)。

该行预料手套短缺将持续至今年下半年,特别是目前增加的产能不足以应付市场需求,预料手套公司将在今年杪之前每月将产品售价上调至少3%,而增加赚幅将直接流入公司盈利。随着全球政府重新开放经济,预料连非医药保健领域的手套使用率也高涨。

该行指出,从今年初开始,由于全球市场对胶手套需求殷切,使胶手套公司的正常交货期,从原本的30~45天延长至12个月。就算中国疫情已受控制,惟至今对胶手套的需求还是走高,预料此趋势在出现解药及疫苖之前还会持续。

谈到银行股前景,艾芬黄氏分析员指出,虽然该行将银行及金融股的目标价及评级上调,以反映较低的股票风险溢价,特别是市场对银行及金融领域的风险胃纳已有所改善,惟总的来看,该行还是对银行业保持“减持”评级。

该行预期2020财政年整体银行业核心净利按年下跌28.6%,直至2021年料回扬13%,主要下行风险包括商业产业的供应与需求失衡、未售住宅单位的价格不平衡及库存偏高、以及来自农业、建筑、制造业及家庭等领域的资产素质风险。

目前银行及金融业的潜在利好,包括调升利率、资金市场活跃、拥屋计划及企业并购升温等。至于潜在利空,主要是较高的减记及疲弱的贷款成长。

该行预期银行及金融领域的2020年下半年盈利前景,将反映较高的信贷成本(使银行采取预防性质的减记措施),而市场预料2021年将有望浮现复苏。2020年的贷款成长将保持平淡无奇,因建筑及产业发展计划停滞不前及前景低迷,加上一般的消费者和企业保持谨慎,特别是失业率走高及社交距离措施所致。

该行预期银行业的呆账风险有增无减,于2021年的信贷成本持续走高,惟幸没有2020年般的严峻。投资者应该注意银行及金融公司的资产负债表,以及贷款亏损缓冲能力。

该行的首选金融股只有永旺信贷(AEONCR,5139,主板金融服务组),评级“买进”及目标价9令吉80仙,主要是看好2022财政年预测股本回酬率可达14.4%、较低净信贷成本及更兴旺的应收款项成长等利好支持。



https://www.sinchew.com.my/content/content_2296782.html

[转贴] 浅谈手套股 - RH Research

手套股经历一波大牛行情后,目前已迈入平稳的调整期,不再像之前那么波动。近期的热潮已经降温,除了成交量萎缩,也已有几天不见有部落格大写文章。今天就来分享个人对这个板块的看法。

几乎可以肯定,疫情难以在今年内得到有效控制,因此全球将面临与疫情共存的局面。也就是说,医疗手套的需求在短时间内还是非常强劲。如今手套在全球范围内出现供不应求的局面,订单更是已经排到2021下半年。


在每盒手套价格大涨的情况下,手套业者未来几个季度的业绩基本上已确定非常好。每家投行也纷纷提高目标价。不过,大家最关心的还是手套股的上涨行情还会延续吗?

事实上,在手套股暴涨后,市场已经出现很大的分歧。有的认为所有利好已经反映在股价上,有的则唱好未来几个业绩仍高于分析师预期。从中立的角度,个人认为大家应该将目光投放在2021年之后的手套供需行情。

手套供需

众所周知,现阶段很多业者都积极扩充产能,以迎合市场的需求,不过一旦疫情结束后,确实是有可能出现产能过剩的情况。中国有2家业者近期已宣布未来3-5年的扩充计划,而且规模足以媲美本地巨头。

首先是英科医疗,近期在中国股市上演超过4倍的疯狂涨势。目前年产能为190亿左右。未来计划在各省打造4个生产基地,累积扩充的产能高达500多亿。也就是说在完成计划后,其产能几乎和现在的Top Glove一样。

其二是蓝帆医疗,预计在2020年底提高年产能至250亿,并计划在2021-2023年期间进一步扩充300亿产能,也就是说总产能有望在4年内达到550亿。

以上的计划看似非常有雄心,而且具有很大的威胁,不过实际冲击预计不大。要扩充如此多的产能除了需要庞大的资金,也需要耗上至少8-10年才能建成。Top Glove用了30年时间才有今天的规模,难道他们仅需要几年就达成?

另一方面,英科和蓝帆的主要产品是PVC手套 (Vinyl) ,占组合的近80%。两者未来的扩充核心也是投放在PVC手套上,相信是因为在丁晴手套的竞争上完全没有优势。

此外,PVC手套的生产原料是塑料,属于污染程度高的产品。全球近年来已逐渐从PVC或橡胶手套转向使用丁晴手套,这是未来不变的趋势。

至于需求,全球手套在2005-2019年期间录得大约8%的复合增长率。随着全球卫生意识得到结构性提升,加上肺炎疫情对全球影响程度大大超出SARS,Top Glove预测手套正常的需求增速将从以往的8-10%增至12-15%。

2019年的全球手套需求为2,600亿左右,而2020年则预测为3,100亿左右。全球5大手套业者的总产能为大约1,900亿,占市场份额的60%。以他们明年平均20%的产能扩充速度,暂时还不成问题, 毕竟订单已经排到2021下半年。

值得一提,手套业者也已经收到包括航空、餐厅、服装、酒店等新用户的订单。就连个人近期去Mamak喝茶,也看到所有员工穿着手套,相信这已经是新常态。

暴利税 Windfall Tax

政府曾在1998年和2008年向本地棕油业征收暴利税。如今市场上也纷纷传出政府会重蹈覆辙,不过目标却转向手套业。

个人认为不能相提并论,因为当棕油价格跌至非常烂时,政府将调整出口税,甚至给予补贴金,以协助业者度过难关。也就是在行情差的时候伸出援手。

假设有一天手套价格跌至非常烂,政府会出手支援吗?答案是不会。那么基本上现在就没有权力和资格向手套业者征收暴利税。Top Glove也出面澄清,政府官员至今没有上门商讨相关事宜。

回到最重要的问题,手套股涨势完了吗?取决于是否还有新一批资金进场。直接来说就是取决于病毒何时结束,以及有效的疫苗何时问世。

个人认为由于手套股未来几个季度业绩大好,这波上涨周期相信还会维持一段时间。

纯属分享!

凡人变网红,你能吗?/拿督刘明

上个星期我在文章截稿后在面簿看到网友上传了一则印籍网红夫妇的不平凡故事,我有点无地自容。

很抱歉,我们只关心和自私地活在自己的圈子里,无视友族同胞们的动向,其实在马来西亚,友族尤其是马来人的网红圈可是一门不可忽视的大生意!

先谈谈那对在控管令期间 爆红的印籍夫妇吧!

Sugu Pavithra 是他们在YouTube 频道的名称,是太太S Pavithra 和先生M Sugu 的合体。

这一对普通到不行的年轻夫妻,育有两名孩子,住在霹雳和丰的一个园坵宿舍里,家里的经济支柱全靠丈夫那微弱的收入支撑。

今年的一月份,Pavithra 就开始尝试在YouTube 教烹饪课,都是一些马来西亚人熟悉的印度菜肴。

她的丈夫Sugu全程用手机录像,完全没有其他摄影器材加持,而Pavithra的烹饪厨具都是她平时做饭惯用的,我们认为普通不过、理所当然的微波炉或压力锅,对他们来说却是遥不可及的奢侈品,所以Pavithra 烹饪出来的食物,绝对原汁原味、货真价实!

在一位也是YouTuber 友人的指导下,她的第一个烹饪视频点击率就达到了140万人,而他们在YouTube 的订阅量和追随者迅速达到1万人,他们很快就成为YouTube 生意伙伴关系。

订阅人数暴增

这对年轻YouTuber 的订阅量每天都快速增长,尤其是控管令期间经马新社专题报道之后,他们的订阅人数从16万人,突然暴增至44万人。

6 月初首相在他最新一轮的经济刺激方案提起了Sugu Pavithra这个励志故事,又再一次让他们的订阅人数飙升至65万人!

为了体恤他们的努力和坚持,首相派人赠送了他们一个录影用的三脚架和一些家用厨电,还亲自签名题字以示表扬!

我上YouTube 浏览了他们的最新视频,为了全职照顾两位年幼的孩子和更好地配合妻子的事业,Sugu已经辞去了他原来的工作。

他们用YouTube 赚来的钱购买了新的房子,让人不可思议的是,他们把搬家和摆设家具诸如此类的小事全程录影并搬上网,点击视频人数竟然高达数十万计!

Add caption
Pavithra 在YouTube 教烹饪课,她的丈夫Sugu全程用手机录像,完全没有其他摄影器材加持。

3因素瞬间爆红

Sugu Pavithra 为什么瞬间爆红?

我想是同理心和代入感作祟!

1. 疫情肆虐期间人心惶惶,很多人都在为工作朝不保夕而担忧。Sugu Pavithra 的成功让他们仿佛在黑暗的尽头看到曙光!

2. Pavithra 出生低微,受教育程度不高,还能操流利的马来语,让B40低收入群体更有代入感:成功并不是那么遥不可及,也未必需要高学历和高人脉,只要努力,呆在家里做自己喜欢的事,也能有出头天!

3. 媒体的推波助澜和人们对毫不起眼的小人物的好奇,推高了点击率!

冇人、冇物、冇貌、冇样却能在短短数月累计65万人脉,人生更因此随之改变,这的确是一个传奇的激励故事。

马来艺人兼网红粉丝不输国外

那么那些有模有样、有才华有能力的艺人又该如何?

其实我国的马来艺人兼网红累计的粉丝人数,与国外艺人相比绝对不遑多让。

我几年前开始学习用面薄做广告的时候,导师就和我提及Neelofa 这号人物。

事隔多年,我上网查了一下她的资料,天啊!她的Instagram 粉丝竟然高达730万人!而面薄粉丝也有近200万人。

善用名气赚钱

Neelofa 非常年轻,来自吉兰丹,今年只有31 岁。2010年赢得了某杂志美后就开始进入演艺圈,之后一路平步青云走到现在。

她非常聪明,小小年纪就懂得利用自己的名气赚钱。她的网卖非常成功,任何产品只要贴上Neelofa 肯定秒杀。

她的阿拉伯长裙和头巾,卖到全世界37个国家,包括澳洲、英国和欧洲。2017年福布斯遴选她为亚洲30 岁以下最有影响力人士之一!

2019年10月,她荣获有网红奥斯卡之称的皇家摩纳哥网红奖颁发的2019年度商业组最佳网红奖!

2017年她也被亚航创办人东尼邀请为亚航独立董事!

年轻、漂亮、聪明、有商业敏锐度,这是Neelofa 给所有认识她的人的深刻印象。

无独有偶,我在网上搜寻到的马来男网红,也是有730万的Instagram 粉丝,面薄总数也有近200万人,他是马来社会知名度蛮高的艺人兼网红之一Zizan Razak。

Zizan 也很年轻,今年才37 岁,2007年出道,当年赢得搞笑大王(Raja Lawak)比赛第二名,就开始进入演艺圈至今。

Zizan Razak 倒没有Neelofa 那么有商业头脑和野心,但他拍片和代言产品也足够让他丰衣足食,毫无意外成为我国名副其实最富有谐星!

华裔商家可借镜

其实马来友族是非常崇拜偶像的一个族群。他们比较淳朴单纯,非常关注和信任偶像的一举一动,所以凡马来艺人代言的产品几乎都能掀起抢购潮。

华裔商家要想突破,通过马来网红带货也许是一个不错的选择途径。

这一期本来答应要谈中国网红直播,但我发觉马来网红其实也有很多值得我们大书特书和学习的地方。

别忘了,马来同胞是全世界最好的顾客,不挑剔、不讲价,而且他们才是马来西亚最大客户群,大家应该多加关注他们的动向才能有所突破!

https://www.enanyang.my/名家专栏/凡人变网红你能吗拿督刘明

1年赚1亿的网红/拿督刘明



李子柒烹饪的短视频,把她住的山区拍得如幽谷仙境,犹如人间香格里拉!

上两期聊过了马来西亚的网红经济,今天谈一谈大家也许更熟悉的中国网红。

我曾经在一篇文章里说过,我们的电商经济落后中国和台湾等或许是一件好事,因为我们可以取人之长补己之短。

这论述引起了一些争议,但事隔多年,我想事实证明我的想法是对的,至少在中国走过的场景,陆续出现在大马。那些趁早铺陈或“趋吉避凶“的电商如好友大伟,都在中国网军大举进驻之前建立了自己的电商团队,不但逃过一劫,业务还欣欣向荣!

台湾电商比中国电商更早进入大马,但当时来的都是一些培训、应用程式(App)、仓储物流软件等企业,对大马电商固然有启蒙的意义,但对大马电商的影响,远远低于中国!

中国电商竞争激烈,为了生存无所不用其极,在平台开店已经无利可图,直播带货至少还有一线生机!

中国直播兴起于6年前左右吧,好像还早面簿一年。直播带货虽然不是淘宝开始的,但由淘宝带旺并掀起直播在中国的热潮,倒是不争的事实。

网红孵化平台造人才

因为前景备受追捧,直播业在中国融资不难,所以很多网红在专业的网红孵化平台培训下产生,李佳琦和薇娅就是很好的例子!

这两大直播天王天后相信很多人都很熟悉,我在上两期的专栏也稍微提到了他们,他们的曝光率超高,背后的故事大家都如数家珍,我就不再画蛇添足、锦上添花了。

我对近期人气越来越旺的李子柒反而感到好奇。一位只念到小学4年级就缀学的女孩子,住在四川省一个荒无人烟的山区,靠短视频1年就赚了近1亿人民币(约6000万令吉)。

最神奇的是她的烹饪视频从不带货,却让你心甘情愿上她的天猫店抢购有关食材,每月营销超过4000万人民币(2400万令吉)!

李子柒短视频崛起

李子柒年幼时父母离异,1996年父亲逝世,继母对她不好,爷爷奶奶心疼她,把她接回家。

爷爷在乡下是个有名的厨师,善于农活,也会编制竹器,邻居红白事都喜欢找他帮忙,李子柒就这样耳濡目染之下小小年纪就会做饭,也对其他传统手艺情有独钟,尊定了她后来成功的基石!

爷爷不久后也因病去世,李子柒为了生活只好一个人到城里打工。

她当过侍应,后来为了更好的收入学会了当夜店DJ 。

2012年因为奶奶生了一场大病,她为了照顾好年迈体弱的奶奶而放弃一切,回到了四川乡下山区。

她在淘宝开了一家网店,但生意不好,听取了弟弟的建议,她开始拍摄短视频希望让生意火起来。

李子柒非常好学,前期的视频或照片都不理想,为了把视频拍的更专业,她到处拜师。

终于有一次她的作品被美拍总执行长发现,满心欢喜地点赞并把它发在首页,就这样李子柒的短视频开始备受瞩目。

就地取材拜师学艺

我看了蛮多李子柒烹饪的短视频,发觉她的视频非常唯美。她的烹饪视频和一般大厨教你做菜的拍摄手法完全不一样,她就地取材,把农活都摄入镜头,把她住的山区拍得如幽谷仙境,犹如人间香格里拉!

李子柒的每一个视频都有一个非常有创意的主题,比如“蒜的一生“。

整个短片就记录了她如何培育蒜苗,施肥浇水,直到它茁壮成长,然后收割。接下来就是如何用蒜为主菜下锅,炒出几道香喷喷、热腾腾的农家菜肴。

把蒜当人办,用视频道出“蒜”的一生!有趣、生动、非常有心思!

她甚至自学古法印刷、染坊和自制烘窑烘培面包,直让人感叹:还有什么活这小妮子不会的?

她为了制作兰州拉面,特地去拜师学艺,用两个月时间学会如何拉出好看又有弹性的面条,搞到自己双臂几乎提不起来,就为了拍摄5分钟“正宗兰州拉面”!

造就中国文化奇迹

她前期的视频都是自己拍摄、制作和剪辑,水准之高,和专业团队不遑多让!

就因为这样,有人怀疑她是网红平台制造出来的产物,作品背后都是专业团体在操控。她一度为此谣言大受打击、心灰意冷而停止拍摄!

李子柒在中国有超过8000万的粉丝,散布在所有自媒体平台。她是YouTube中文视频第一名,订户1100万人,比美国CNN有线电视台的1000万订户还多!

李子柒的视频,没有一个字夸中国好,但她讲好了中国文化、讲好了中国故事。

她只是在那里默默地干着农活,偶尔和奶奶说几句四川方言,但她的视频却让全世界的人开始喜欢有趣好看的中国传统文化,让人喜欢上勤奋的中国人民,喜欢上这个国家!

李子柒是个奇迹,一颗平常心造就了国家文化的奇迹!

诚意决心打动人心

李子柒为什么成功?

她的孝心冥冥中牵引出她的福报。假如她不是因为心疼奶奶而不顾一切回到山区乡下,她的人生会从新改写!

她做人做事完美要求,凡事要做到最高规格,这从她视频的水准看得出来!

李子柒非常有创意,用唯美的拍摄风格记录着食材的故事,非常感动人心。很多外国读者留言都说:她的视频承载着满满的正能量,足于疗伤!

中国的舞台够大,加上5000年的文化底蕴,让她尽情发挥想象力。时间、空间都对了!

她隐藏在内心不服输的精神,小时候的贫穷反而是一种不可多得的推动力量,养成她不向困境低头的性格!

不知道为什么,我看了李子柒,其他带货网红还真不够看!

这是何等境界啊?

https://www.enanyang.my/名家专栏/1年赚1亿的网红拿督刘明

Friday, June 26, 2020

MI TECHNOVATION財務解析

Author: Adi_Investor | Publish date: Fri, 26 Jun 2020, 4:22 PM

MI TECHNOVATION (MI, 5286),前身为Mi Equipment Holdings Bhd,是一家马来西亚公司,从事具有测试功能的晶圆级芯片级封装(WLCSP)分选机的设计,开发和制造。该公司的产品包括WLCSP芯片分选机,晶圆对晶圆分选机和WLCSP后锯最终测试机。它向半导体行业提供产品。本公司还提供维修服务,技术支持和其他售后服务。

本人對半導體認識有限,所以無法對 MI TECHNOVATION 競爭和營運做一個深度分析。

但是它的財務數據還是可以讓我們了解它。

MI TECHNOVATION 財務如下:




用著名的ROE看,MI TECHNOVATION 是合格的。

加上高 Revenue 和 Net Income 成長,似乎是完美。

但仔細看 EPS ,成長率則少很多,特別和2017年對比卻是退步。

原因就在於 Diluted Weighted Average Shares,從365.57增加到748.07,稀釋了股東權益。

公司為了發展,通過供股融資是可以的,但是我對年年供股的股票都有點卻步,這對股東權益不是好事。

如果公司前景真的俱佳,對供股還可以忍受,MI TECHNOVATION 符合此條件嗎?

要看前景,就必須對公司營運環境和未來發展要有一個分析。

正如前述,我不了解半島體行業,但還是可以通過財務數據看出一點信號。

我們看 MI TECHNOVATION 的現金流量表,因為投資資本大,所以都是負自由現金流。

發展初期負自由現金流我可以接受,但我不能接受低於 Net Income 的 Operating Cash。

Operating Cash 不理想的高成長率,是不可信的。

這是我的看法。

这一套三本投资书胜过你看外面20本,因为外面的投资书是东说一点,西说一点,我是把精华整理归纳,以Step by Step方法铺陈,化繁為簡,全面講解投資分析法。

股票基本面分析的《股票真智慧》、技术面的《图表趋势秘密》和经济分析的《经济周期投资》。

詳細书內容可瀏覽:

https://ckfstock.blogspot.my/2018/02/adibooks-series.html






購買請mail: kongfaw.choo358@gmail.com

投资教学視頻(捐款用途)
https://ckfstock.blogspot.com/2019/11/blog-post_25.html

湯文亮:空置率看三條件:地點、地點和地點


文章日期:2020年6月26日

【明報專訊】昨日在早餐時見到一位愁眉深鎖的行家,不過沒有問他有什麼事,在這個時勢,物業投資者大多數愁眉深鎖,行家話大行一份空置率報告,累他被老闆照肺照了一個晚上。大行報告中指出,中環甲級寫字樓空置率大約5%,而他們公司的中環甲級寫字樓空置率超10%,老闆話佢工作不稱職,如果唔想辦法將空置率下降至5%以下,行家可能隨時被離職。

大行報告空置率5%僅平均數

行家問我們的中環甲級寫字樓空置率是多少,我沒有講真實說話,只是話大約5%。其實,我們在中環的甲級寫字樓全部租出,包括一個本來是行家租客,最近亦轉租我們的寫字樓。

我們並沒有以低價搶客,而是行家的寫字樓在低層,我們的在高層,有不少中環甲級寫字樓租客最近都由低層搬上高層;行家公司擁有的甲廈大多數是低層,空置率超過10%絕不出奇。嚴格來說,這不是行家的錯,而是行家公司的錯。

商廈愈高樓層空置率愈低

發表報告的大行以前有一位外籍董事話買樓三大原則,就是Location、Location、Location(地點) ,一向被視為投資物業的金科玉律。我講出來大家或者會不相信,原來寫物業報告亦要講Location、Location、Location ,三個Location的意思分別是優質地區、優質大廈、優質樓層,中環甲級寫字樓代表了兩個非常好的Location,第三個Location就是講樓層,當然是愈高愈好,而且愈高樓層的空置率愈低。

大行的報告指空置率5%,這只是一個平均數,高層空置率一定大幅低於低層。因此,就算空置率亦要講Location、Location、Location,即是要分高中低層來講,否則就不算是一份中肯、仔細和全面的報告。

紀惠集團行政總裁
[湯文亮 敢說反話]

譚新強:Don't fight the Fed, until......

文章日期:2020年6月26日

【明報專訊】華爾街有句被視為金科玉律的投資守則:「Don't fight the Fed」,意思是如果美國聯儲局決定「放水」,採取寬鬆貨幣政策,哪管經濟環境和企業盈利有多差,投資者都千萬不可逆勢而行,做空股市。

美國疫情嚴重,連第二浪和第一浪都根本分不清楚,真的是一波未平,一波又起,對經濟重開的步伐怎可能沒影響?再加上近日不停出現大規模的BLM示威遊行甚至暴亂,對實體經濟簡直是雪上加霜。

但從投資角度來說,自從聯儲局在3月底重啟QE,更表明是無限的,美股就開始了神奇的、愈來愈與現實脫節的股市大反彈!從3月的最低點至近日最高點,標指、道指和納指,分別升了44.5%、48.3%和47.7%,納指更創了歷史新高,真的有點匪夷所思!不只美股,連中國新經濟股都受惠,騰訊(0700)、網易(9999)、中芯(0981)、京東(9618)、美團(3690)、拼多多、Bilibili等齊創新高,阿里巴巴(9988)亦不遠矣!

聯儲3月底重啟QE 美股與現實脫節

我當然明白WFH大趨勢對Amazon、微軟、facebook和Alphabet等科技龍頭幫助很大,如虎添翼。最大的5家Big Tech,已佔了標指的20%。但其餘80%又如何?除了「印鈔」外,怎樣解釋波音、各航空、郵輪公司超過1倍的反彈?連已破了產的Hertz都反彈了5倍。

無限QE的另一個受害者,可說是Alex Kearns,是Robinhood無佣金交易平台的客人。他是個20歲無收入的學生,但Robinhood竟給他100萬美元的借貸額度。他似乎用來炒期權,有一天他發現戶口輸了70多萬美元,感到絕望,就選擇了自殺,非常可惜和愚蠢。近乎黑色幽默,更可悲的傳聞是他其實沒有輸掉那麼多錢,只是看不懂Robinhood的每天倉位報告而已!Robinhood的KYC和風控,當然有問題,但如果沒有無限QE,哪有可能100萬美元信貸會流到一個20歲學生手中?

標指能否如著名策略師Tom Lee預測,在初夏即將創新高,誰也不知道,只可拭目以待。巴菲特在股市底部沽清了所有航空股,反被總統特朗普譏笑。據一位美國資深family office投資者說,今次大反彈令最有經驗的對冲基金經理大跌眼鏡,幾乎沒有年過45歲的賺到錢(嘻嘻,不知道我那麼年青)!

我當然贊同Don't fight the Fed,但天生多慮,會加個until......:

1. 美國超過一半州份的疫情正在上升,每日宗數重上3萬以上。多個大州如加州和Florida都是熱點,Arizona和Texas等,醫院容量更將在未來數天爆滿!死亡滯後,在不久將來,每日死亡人數必將反彈。這就是反民主制度選出來的特朗普自私無能領導下的惡果,美國變成反科學、反事實、反理性,連口罩都變成政治部落圖騰!

美國經濟是否真的可以不管「死人冧樓」,繼續重開,實屬懷疑。但股市是否必將因此大跌?答案部分取決於疫情能否受控,和政策取向。

疫症宗數確在飈升,但近日感染者平均較年輕,且最少一部分人有戴口罩,即使受感染,接觸到的viral load較輕,所以死亡率應該較低。加上美國醫生多了經驗,終於明白過早使用ventilator,弊多於利。FDA終於禁用頗危險的HCQ,改用較有效的Dexamethasone和Remdesivir等藥。最重要的是投資者仍樂意相信最快在年底就將成功研究出有效疫苗,雖然不少專家仍有保留。即使成功,疫苗的有效率多高(可能只有50%至60%),有效期多長(可能只有3至6個月),價錢和如何大量生產數十億劑等問題,更加暫時沒人理會。

如果經濟重開萬一受阻,聯儲局又是否江郎「財」盡?當然不是,隨便都可數出尚未使出的三招:一、YCC(yield curve control),短期內將公布細節,估計類似日本央行的10年債零利率目標政策(QE也是日本發明),但可能焦點放在較短的5年期美國債。二、負利率,這一招歐洲較常用,聯儲局仍非常抗拒。三、直接購買股票ETF,甚至個股。聯儲局已開始直接買個別企債,離股票只一步之遙。日央行早已直接購入日股ETF。

2. BLM會否演變成一場美式文化大革命?近日示威變回大致和平,不少各州市警察甚至以「taking a knee」(單膝跪),為警暴作象徵式道歉,但當然無礙警察殺害黑人事件仍不斷發生。

大規模暴亂會否再現?絕對有可能,只等待適合的導火線。特朗普言行仍緊擁抱着輸了內戰的南部Lost Cause,近日警告企圖拉倒另一早期擁有黑奴和曾跟美洲原住民打仗的總統Andrew Jackson銅像的示威者,任何毀壞公眾紀念碑者,可被監禁10年,且講明執法絕不手軟!醜陋的事實是美國最早的10位總統,8位都曾擁有黑奴!如特朗普繼續煽動種族衝突,事情會否一發不可收拾,實在難講。假如他成功連任,但再次以大比數輸掉普選,BLM支持者會否願意再忍氣吞聲接受?上次白宮門前衝擊已非常危險,如下次再發生,民眾會否更暴力?而美國軍、警又將如何處理?如特朗普下令使用大量武力,甚至開槍,警察、國民自衛隊和正規軍隊的反應又如何?早前參謀長聯席會議主席General Milley的表態必令總統特朗普非常不安,且反常敢怒不敢言。

窮人餓不死卻不爽致動亂增

BLM運動主因不是「麵包」,但QE導致貧富懸殊加劇肯定是主因之一。QE救了富人,窮人餓不死但感覺不爽。這是個全球現象,所以近年那麼多社會動亂。但請留意,正因肚子不餓,與俄國沙皇末代,以及晚清末期時的民不聊生,有根本性的不同,所以革命動力仍不足夠。反而不少右翼種族主義政府,如美國、英國和巴西等,草菅少數族裔人命,處理疫情嚴重失當,面臨的政治壓力更大。巴西甚至有政變危機。

但派錢的財政政策仍有點用。美國政府已在討論下一輪刺激方案,但分歧頗大。民主黨的眾議院要求3萬億美元,共和黨的參議院只支持1萬億美元,白宮則要求2萬億美元,但另重提1萬億美元基建。不知道最後結果如何,但最緊急是再發放最少1000美元,和延長4000萬失業工人的救濟金。

3. 無限QE和UBI,證明Andrew Yang是對的,更非常受巿場歡迎,這是否神話中的免費午餐?

聯儲局的資產規模,在金融海嘯前只約7000億美元,經QE擴張至4.3萬億美元,然後稍為收縮至3.6萬億美元,但只重啟無限QE三個月,又再膨脹至空前的7萬億美元!財政更誇張,今年財赤將高達4萬億美元,超過GDP的20%!美國國債亦將升至約110%GDP。
低利率「好處」多 最重要增政府負債能力

傳統經濟理論提醒大家如此瘋狂的貨幣和財政政策的各種不良甚至災難性後果,包括超級通脹、息口飛升、經濟衰退、股債市崩潰和貨幣大幅貶值等等。但到現時為止,這些情况仍未出現。最根本和最重要的是利率不升反跌,當然是拜QE所賜。YCC是更直接的操控債市方法,據日本經驗,相對QE,可省80%彈藥。按低利率「好處」很多,最重要是增加政府負擔債能力,利息支出佔比更低。

利率低,股、債的fair value當然更高,所以毫無收入的Nikola,市值都可超過250億美元(可惜Nikola Tesla似乎沒有middle name,要不然最少值50億美元)。標指今年PE估計最少24倍,CAPE約29倍,只低於1999年科網泡沫爆破前水平。

亂印鈔,財政揮霍無度,不是應該帶來通脹?為什麼沒有?首先QE和YCC,直接按住本應自由反映增長和通脹預期的長債息口,或對實質增長和未來通脹有真實影響。除此之外,人口老化、經濟虛擬化、能源和天然資源需求減少,再生能源和電動車革命都是通縮的,所以現今大國的負債能力真的比以前高很多,加速印鈔只剛好平衡通縮壓力。

縱拜登當選 難改Fed put

4. 近日美股高位震盪,部分歸咎於近日民調顯示拜登擴闊了領先優勢,市場憂慮如他當選,將逆轉特朗普的企業減稅。高盛估計加稅或將削減標指明年盈利超過10%。如要逐漸回歸至收支平衡,加稅是必須的;但以加稅為競選口號,是極難贏出的。再者,即使拜登勝出,任何加稅方案都需要兩院通過。華爾街開始擔心一次「blue sweep」,但我認為參議院留在共和黨的機會仍較高。

再者,即使拜登當選,也不代表他將改變自格林斯潘年代至今,30多年來聯儲局提供給巿場,風險不對稱的Fed put。此政策對投資者超好,但形成道德風險,因此全球經常出現各種資產泡沫。

強美元需軍事互相支撐

5. QE、YCC、MMT和UBI等堂皇名詞,某程度上都只欺騙大家的掩眼法。種種手段的最重要支撐仍是全世界對美元的無比信心,這就是法國前總統Giscard d'Estaing所指的美元「exorbitant privilege」(高昂專權)!只要所有人有信心,美國就可隨意印鈔、政府可長期入不敷支,貿易長期逆差。美元霸權是接近絕對的,全球超過60%貨幣儲備是美元,全球外匯交易,超過90%其中一邊為美元!美元有何危機?

靜悄悄地,從3月至今,美元指數DXY貶值了5.2%。絕非崩潰,但會否繼續跌,難講,所以近日那麼多人對黃金和Bitcoin有興趣。美元又是靠什麼來做儲備的呢?千萬不要以為是黃金,只佔M1的8%,M2不到3%。理論上支持美元價值當然是整個美國的天然資源、社會體制和人才,包括大量領先全球的企業,最優秀的大學等。這些資產,需倚靠全世界最強大的軍事力量來保衛;但這龐大軍事力量,包括800個海外基地,亦需要每年近8000億美元國防開支,是後面9個國家的總和。這個排場不易維持,說白了,美元靠軍事支撐,而軍事又要靠美元來支持,有點循環論證的味道。

如要維持這局面,美國必須無限期維持GDP第一!極難想像世界第二大經濟,可繼續擁有這個高昂特權。

中美GDP年底將明顯拉近

我已多次指出今季是個歷史上最重要里程碑之一,中、美名義GDP將是前所未有的接近,是彎道超車的第一次碰撞。下半年如美國能繼續重開經濟(如重開不成功,後果不敢想像),還好一點,將重新拉開距離,到年底可能美國GDP約20萬億美元,中國約15萬億美元,差距仍有33%,但已比去年的50%以上收窄很多。長期交接的時間表亦將由7年以上拉近至估計只4至5年,即有可能在下屆美國總統任內發生。

當然重申一次,即使中國GDP超越美國,絕不代表人民幣、人均收入、科技、商業、軍事和宣傳上,都能同時超越美國。這將是一個漫長過程,且充滿危機。

這亦不等如美元馬上失去所有人信心,停止使用,或匯率暴跌。但這過程中,美元必逐漸失去它的高昂專權,聯儲局的QE和YCC等政策的自由度和有效性,將慢慢感到掣肘,可能導致Fed put的威力減弱。

所以Don't fight the Fed, until......

(中環資產持有騰訊、網易、中芯、京東、美團、拼多多、阿里、Bilibili、Amazon、Microsoft、facebook、Apple、Tesla的財務權益)
中環資產投資行政總裁
[譚新強 中環新譚]

Thursday, June 25, 2020

Acquisition of Wave Money a positive for Yoma Strategic Holdings, say analysts

Broker's Calls
Felicia Tan 25/06/2020, 3:19pm
SINGAPORE (June 25): Analysts are in favour of Yoma Strategic Holdings raising its effective stake in Digital Money Myanmar Limited (Wave Money).

The company announced on Wednesday that it will be acquiring Telenor Group’s 51% stake in Wave Money for US$76.5 million (S$106.4 million), and will raise funds from a consortium of investors led by Yoma Strategic.

See: Yoma Strategic to become largest controlling shareholder in Myanmar's Wave Money for total of $141.5 mil

DBS analysts Rachel Tan and Derek Tan have maintained their “buy” calls on the conglomerate, with a target price of 50 cents.

“While the next part of the journey may be rocky with increased competition, we believe Wave Money’s dominant position in Myanmar and the synergistic opportunities that both Yoma Strategic and Ant Financial can provide will give Wave Money a firm platform as it expands into a super app,” they write in a note dated June 24.

“We believe there will be synergies and cross business collaboration with Yoma Strategic’s current business, especially in fleet leasing, consumer (digital payments) and real estate services that could drive the digital wallet segment further. In addition, we believe there could be future synergistic opportunities as Ant Financial builds its e-commerce platform in Myanmar,” they add.

Phillip Capital analyst Tan Jie Hui feels the acquisition was made at an attractive price of US$76.5 million (S$106.4 million), which is a 20% discount to the brokerage’s projected valuation for Wave Money.

As such, she has maintained her “buy” call and target price of 46 cents.

“We increased the valuation of Yoma’s stake in Wave Money, offset by a 15% devaluation in Pun Hlaing Estate’s land bank due to the expectation of a weaker outlook in the premium property space. Property and financial services will constitute 68% and 19% of the valuation respectively,” she says.

Tan says the acquisition will have a positive impact on the conglomerate as it will give Wave Money a better strategic focus to grow its e-wallet business.

“Post Telenor’s exit, Wave will be more focused in its strategy to grow, underpinned by Ant’s strength in financial services and technology coupled with Yoma’s local presence and expertise,” she says.

Both brokerages agree that the unchanged key management team in Wave Money is also a plus.

As at 3.18pm, shares in Yoma Strategic Holdings were changing hands 2 cents higher, or 6.7% up, at 32 cents.

Wednesday, June 24, 2020

Analysts mixed on Mapletree Industrial Trust’s data centre acquisition in US

Broker's Calls
Felicia Tan 24/06/2020, 4:43pm

SINGAPORE (June 24): Analysts are mixed on their outlook for Mapletree Industrial Trust (MINT) following the REIT’s Wednesday announcement that it will be acquiring the remaining 60% interest in data centres in the US at a purchase consideration of US$210.9 million (S$299.5 million).

See: Mapletree Industrial Trust to acquire remaining 60% interest in 14 data centres in US for $299.5 mil

The deal will further expose MINT’s exposure to the more resilient data centre segment, which will enable MINT to future-proof its portfolio for a more digital economy. The acquisition also exposes MINT to the US, the world’s largest data centre market.

CGS-CIMB Research has downgraded the stock to “hold” from “add” with a revised target price of $2.81 from its previous $2.66, on valuations.

CGS-CIMB analysts Lock Mun Yee and Eing Kar Mei say they have raised MINT’s distribution per unit (DPU) estimates by 0.8-2.9% to factor in five months on contributions in FY21F, should the transaction be completed by the end of 3Q20. Lock and Eing have also taken into account MINT’s private placement, which will issue of 128.1 million new units.

See also: Mapletree Industrial Trust launches private placement to raise $350 mil to fund acquisition of data centres, and Mapletree Industrial Trust's private placement over-subscribed, to raise total of $410 mil

“While we like this accretive acquisition, MINT’s share price has appreciated by c.15% since end-Apr and the stock is currently trading at c.4.3% FY21F DPU yield, above its +1 s.d. 7-year yield band,” they write in a note dated June 23.

Maybank Kim Eng analyst Chua Su Tye believes the acquisition should strengthen MINT’s footprint in the US’s top 15 data centre markets.

“We continue to expect strong demand growth for data centre assets globally with rising operational needs,” he says in a Wednesday note.

“COVID-19 has likely accelerated the pace of cloud adoption from the increased usage of remote working, video streaming and online gaming, with higher data traffic needs bolstering leasing demand,” he adds.

As such, Chua has maintained his “buy” call with an unchanged target price of $2.95 for the stock.

“Valuations will continue to be supported by its positive growth fundamentals and more resilient portfolio, as DPU visibility has been further strengthened by its rising hi-tech asset investments and overseas diversification. These and $1.6-2.3 billion in debt headroom, could support other DPU-accretive deals,” he says.

Chua says the brokerage will revise estimates following the deal closure, which is expected to be completed by September this year.

As at 4.42pm, units in Mapletree Industrial Trust (MINT) are changing hands 11 cents higher, or 3.9% up, at $2.95.