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Thursday, October 31, 2019

Alliance Bank Malaysia Bhd - Looking Attractive

Author: rakutentrade | Publish date: Thu, 31 Oct 2019, 2:17 PM

With the absence of write-offs and sharply lower credit charge expected in the 2HFY20, better days are ahead even in the event of a rate cut in November where we pencilled in a 10 bps NIM compression. Elevated credit charges should largely have been priced in for now and any weakness is an opportunity to buy. BUY with TP at RM3.30 based on a target FY20E PBV of 0.85x. The stock has dipped below its 5-year mean giving it an attractive dividend yield of >5% (vs. its peers’ average of 4.5% and second only to MAYBANK).

Recall that 1QYFY20 earnings of RM77m came below expectation, caused by higher impairment allowance where RM55m was charged representing about 13 bps on top of RM50m written off for a defaulted corporate bond.

The range of gross credit charge for ABMB is typically 35 – 40 bps in a normal year. Management guided that credit charge for 1HFY20 would ball park at around 26 – 28 bps, which implies that 2QFY20 should remain elevated at c.13bps on higher mortgage loan impairments. We pencilled in 42 bps for the full year – translating to RM180m, on expectation that 2HFY20 will see a sharp reduction in credit charge as the bank work on these R&R housing loans.

Management guided for a RM40m impact from the 25bps OPR cut in May which translates to a NIM compression of c.9.5bps. Given the time lag of 1-2 quarters for the OPR cut to fully impact NIM compression, 2QFY20 should likely suffer a RM20m impact by our estimate versus RM8m in 1QFY20.

In light of the impairment that has to be provided for the AOA (Alliance One Account) mortgage loans in 2QFY20 and RM50m defaulted bond which we opined will probably be settled only in FY21, we cut FY20E earnings by 8% to RM487m. Despite this, we believe, that 2QFY20 would sequentially be a better quarter in the absence of the extra provisioning on the defaulted bond.

Source: Rakuten Research - 31 Oct 2019

Syarikat Takaful Malaysia - Beating expectations

Author: HLInvest | Publish date: Thu, 31 Oct 2019, 5:52 PM

STMB chalked in 3Q19 bottom-line of RM112m (+34% YoY) due to better gross contribution, flattish claims, and good cost controls. However, 9M results were ahead of estimates on the back of better-than-expected investment gains and smaller-than-expected net change in contract liabilities. Hence, we raise FY19- 21 earnings by 6-10%. Overall, the stock’s risk-reward profile is still balanced, in our opinion, given good business positioning to ride the Islamic finance wave and positive structural industry dynamics, but defused by unfavourable up coming MFRS17 accounting change and downward normalizing growth. Retain HOLD with a higher GGM-TP of RM6.70 (from RM6.30), based on 3.82x FY20 P/B.

Beat expectations. Syarikat Takaful Malaysia Keluarga (STMB) registered 3Q19 net profit of RM112m (+39% QoQ, +34% YoY), bringing 9M19 sum to RM290m (+42%). This beat ours and consensus estimates, making up 80-82% of full-year forecasts. Key variances were better-than-expected investment gains and smaller-than-expected net change in contract liabilities.

Dividend. None declared as STMB only divvy in 4Q.

QoQ. 3Q19 net profit jumped 39%, thanks to better gross contribution (+14%) at both its family (+17%) and general (+3%) businesses. The rise was further augmented by the slower surplus to takaful operator/participants (+6%) and decline in taxes (-46%).

YoY. Gross contribution increased 17% on the back of better credit-related products sales at its family takaful business (+25%). This coupled with flattish claims and a mere 1% tick-up in management expenses, led bottom-line to spike 34%.

YTD. Net earnings grew 42% due to: (i) 26% rise in gross contribution, (ii) 1% drop in claims, and (iii) 44% surge in investment-related gains. However, the 2.5-fold increase in surplus to takaful operator/participants, capped 9M19 performance to be stronger.

Outlook. Looking at the underpenetrated insurance space, favourable demographics, and huge domestic protection gap, the structural long-term growth prospects for the group remains bright, in our view. Also, via a wide network of bancatakaful partners, STMB rides on the robust Islamic banking growth (c.15ppt faster than its conventional counterparts). However, STMB is seen to be more negatively affected by the adoption of MFRS17 since single premium products make up a large 90%+ of its family takaful business. In the near-term, credit-related products growth should taper and normalize from this quarter onwards, since contribution from Bank Rakyat on a 12-month basis has come to a tail-end, coupled with a high base effect.

Forecast. We raise FY19-21 earnings by 6-10% to account for the strong results; this came mainly from higher investment-related gains and lower net change in contract liabilities.

Retain HOLD but with a higher GGM-TP of RM6.70 (from RM6.30), following our earnings uplift and based on 3.82x FY20 P/B (from 3.69x) with assumptions of 30.2% ROE (from 29.3%), 10.1% COE, and 3.0% LTG. This is above its 5-year mean of 3.57x and the sector’s 2.29x. The premium is fair given: (i) it is one of the leaders in the Islamic insurance industry, (ii) being the only pure listed takaful operator on Bursa Malaysia, and (iii) generates strong ROE (13ppt over industry average). Also, STMB is well positioned to ride the Islamic finance wave and positive structural industry dynamics. However, the risk-reward profile is balanced by its downward normalizing growth and unfavourable upcoming MFRS17 accounting change.

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 31 Oct 2019


Author: HLInvest | Publish date: Thu, 31 Oct 2019, 5:53 PM

ViTrox’s 9M19 core net profit of RM62m (-17% YoY) missed our and consensus estimates. The moderation was mainly due the softness in MVS product line despite the favourable forex. According to SEMI, global semiconductor equipment market is projected to drop 18% to USD52.7bn in 2019 reflecting rising market uncertainty due in part to geopolitical tensions. We downgrade to SELL with a lower TP of RM6.17 after cutting projections. Our TP is derived based on higher PE multiple of 24x of FY20 EPS, in line with peers.

Below expectations. 3Q19 core net profit of RM14m (-40% QoQ, -46% YoY) brings 9M19 sum to RM62m (-17% YoY). This is a disappointment as it only forms 54% and 57% of HLIB and consensus full year estimates, respectively due to weaker-than expected top line. One-off adjustments include provisions for forex, inventory and financial instruments.

Dividend. None (3Q18: None).

QoQ. While USD/RM exchange was relatively stable, top line fell by 25% to RM67m as gain in MVS-T (+6%) was offset by the declines in ABI (-30%) and MVS-S (-34%). In turn, core net profit plunged by 40% due to diminishing operating leverage.

YoY. Turnover fell by 35% dragged by all product segments, where MVS-S -40%, ABI -39% and MVS-T -4% as customer demand waned. Subsequently, core earnings declined by 46% to RM14m on the back of less favourable product mix and weaker economies-of-scale.

YTD. Top and bottom lines moderated by 14% and 17%, respectively chiefly due to the softness in MVS product line. Stronger greenback which averaged RM4.13/USD (9M18: RM4.00/USD) did not help.

Sector outlook. SEMI posted USD2bn in billings worldwide in Sep 2019 (3-month moving average), down 2% MoM and 6% YoY. Based on SEMI’s latest forecast, global sales of semiconductor manufacturing equipment by OEM is projected to drop 18% to USD52.7bn in 2019 reflecting rising market uncertainty due in part to geopolitical tensions.

Book-to-bill. Recovered above parity where Jul till Sep ratios were 0.8x, 1.0x and 1.0x, respectively.

Forecast. In view of the underperformance, we cut our FY19-21 EPS by 18%, 20% and 19%, respectively. With more than 10% downside, we downgrade to SELL with a lower TP of RM6.17, reflecting our earnings cut. However, our TP is pegged to a higher PE multiple of 24x (previously 20x), after recalibrating current valuation of global peers (see Figure #2). Despite its technology leadership, its outlook is clouded by trade tensions which delay investment decisions. MVS-S sales are highly dependent on single customer and majority of sales are non-recurring.

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 31 Oct 2019

Saturday, October 26, 2019

Comparing the Worst Periods of Trend Following to Buy-and-Hold Index Funds

Comparing the Worst Periods of Trend Following to Buy-and-Hold Index Funds

It hasn’t been a secret that multi-asset trend following strategies have had a rough go of it over the past 5-10 years. This poor period followed a stellar 2006-09 period. All investment strategies behave like this – cycling back and forth between positive and negative periods.

This period for trend following has been painful, but it pales in comparison to the worst periods that buy-and-hold equity indexes have had – in both size and length.

I believe the standards for trend following, and most alternatives to buy-and-hold, are very high. They get scrutinized month to month and quarter to quarter. Any negative performance period, to many investors, signals the end of the strategy altogether. SMH.

When it happens to buy-and-hold, business goes on as usual. Wall Street uses the drawdown to pound the message of dollar-cost averaging and to stay focused on the long run.

I’m all for dollar-cost averaging and having a long-term perspective, but I want to invest in things that offer a better return profile than 8-10% returns with max drawdowns of 80% or more like index funds produce. If a hedge fund had the same return profile as a buy-and-hold index fund, investors would tar and feather the manager.

Over the past 30 years, Trend Following produces similar returns to buy-and-hold albeit with much less pain and yearly volatility.

When you normalize the BTOP 50 and S&P 500 to the same annualized standard deviation, the BTOP 50 blows it away. Performance just isn’t even close in terms of outright return and in risk-adjusted manner. (past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)

Trend Followers set a new investing standard over 30 years ago, but the strategy still gets very little attention.

Head to Head Performance

A picture is worth a thousand words.

How About Those Losing Periods?

You think the recent trend following drawdown is bad? It’s literally not even half as bad as the two worst buy-and-hold drawdowns.

Again, a picture is worth a thousand words.

The S&P 500 has a history of deep and lengthy losing periods – and this only includes 30 years worth of data. If we take the data back to the early 1900’s, this picture gets much uglier for stocks.

A Buying Opportunity for Trend Following

I believe Trend Following is nearing the bottom of its drawdown. Markets have been choppy for several years and volatility has come way down. Big trends evolve out of periods of choppiness, compression and low volatility.

Trend Following does well when momentum persists month over month, year over year. Lately, markets in general have been rangebound and momentum hasn’t persisted.

This has been Trend Following’s deepest and lengthiest drawdown on record. In any drawdown, when you’re in the depths of it and have been in it a while, you start thinking “is it different this time?”. The mind wanders, we start looking at something to relieve the pain and as a result, many people run to recent winning strategies.

I suggest taking the opposite approach; to stay the course if you’re currently invested. If you’re not currently invested, I believe now presents a good time to learn more about it and possibly taking the next step if it’s appropriate for you.


Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. There is always a risk of loss in futures trading.

This communication is for information purposes only and should not be regarded as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer to buy any financial product, an official confirmation of any transaction, or as an official statement of Melissinos Trading LLC. All information is subject to change without notice.

These charts show examples of trends. Inclusion of a chart as a trend example does not imply any kind of recommendation to buy, sell, hold or stay out.

Jan, 28, 2019 Positive Intention of Worry

Dear Chief,

This morning I wake up and notice I have feelings of worry without any specific thoughts to accompany them. I feel worry as tightness around my collarbone and in my brow. My posture is a bit slumped and my energy level feels low.

I recognize that these feelings/features are very familiar and that I have been automatically using them as an indication to cut risk for some time.

When I acknowledge that I feel worry instead of medicating with distractions, I immediately have the motivation to get to work. As I tie up loose ends, cut risk and take action to secure the outcomes I want, I notice the feelings rapidly shifting to open upright and energetic. Worry comes back when I "forget" to take care of things and helps me get back on track.

I wonder if the positive intention of worry is to cut risk and keep making reasonable bets. The winning scenarios in my life seem to take care of themselves and trend nicely when I do this.

Thank you for teaching me how to accept and learn from my feelings.

I have tremendous gratitude to you for this gift.

As I type this note, I find I'm feeling another feeling ... a pretty irritating pain in my right shoulder/shoulder blade that I feel on and off since late November.

I do not recall doing anything strenuous at that time that would be likely to have caused an injury but acknowledge this pain has been recurring since my teens. I feel surprised when ever it returns. After a while, days, weeks, months sometimes it has stopped hurting and my shoulder then feels like it never happened.

I wonder if there is something more to it (as in perhaps I'm missing a nice big indication of some kind that I have not been willing to acknowledge) or if it's just an old forgotten injury aggravated by bad posture or something...

I plan to have it looked at by a doctor however, I wonder if you have any thoughts about the intentions of mysterious and irritating pain and how to approach learning from it.

Thank you for receiving this.


Thank you for sharing your insights about worry - and for raising the issue of "irritating pain."

Shoulder generally indicates struggle or effort, as in shoulder pain, blame and responsibility.

Irritating generally indicates unwillingness.

You might consider taking your feelings about <irritating shoulder> to Tribe as an entry point.

can transform

an irritatingly painful shoulder
into a sensual smiley face.

Photo Credit

Jan 27, 2019 Forex Traders Wanted!

If you can trade Fx, we’ll fund you … no limits
and you are not responsible for losses. Talk to Us.

We’re the global leader in services to the Fx industry including funding, education, world class automation tools, virtual trading rooms, and personal coaching.

We supply Fx traders with funds to trade and then share profits on a 50-50 basis (you have no risk of loss) and account double it every time when 10% made.

To learn the details, please go to (link). Be sure to read the entire section carefully including the FAQs.

Thank you for sending me your invitation to read the fine print.

I gather you want me to pay you a fee of $495 up front to get to trade a $12,000 account. I make that about 4-1/8%.

Then I must make 40 trades using a trailing drawdown stop of 1.5%.

From your on-line materials, this example:
Account equity May 2 = 10,500.
Account equity May 10 = 10,200.
Account drawdown = -350.

I notice an error in your arithmetic. I estimate the chances of success with such a close trailing equity stop at small to nil.

I assume your basic service consists of providing excitement for dopamine-craving traders.

You sell 40 trades for $495, or about $12-3/8 per dopa-hit. I assume you do not actually put any of the trades through to an exchange - and route them to your "service contractors" instead.

I notice you also offer a plan with a 4% drawdown stop at at higher price, namely: you want me to pay you a fee of $5590 up front to get to trade a $30,000 account. I make that about 18.63%.

I pass.

Jan 22, 2019 Charts

Hi there:

Thank you for posting Mr.Coyle's aggregation of your wisdom he gleaned from the Trading Tribe posting. Good reading for anyone thinking about trading.

Also, enjoying your Chartbook and especially the Long Only system and Buy the Dip charts. One can see "one good trend pays for them all" by looking at the chart of Palladium seems to be a huge move to me.

I did have an observation about the charts. They both look pretty much identical to me, yet the GAS Oil chart show a sky high buy point where as the Heating oil's buy point has dropped down to the consolidation area. Two different equations used?

and Lastly, on your site you list music and in there is some music you and your son wrote and performed. Surely do love that tune "Wah, Wah, Wah" wish it were longer, but brings a smile to my face when I listen to it, just the same.

Good work.

Thank you for raising this issue.

I use the same equations for all the instruments; differences have to do with the charts themselves.

Jan 16, 2019 Portfolio Selection

Hi Ed,

Do you have any guidance in how to construct a portfolio for markets to trade? Would a method such as checking the last say 75 days correlation on the close price of markets do or should it be 100, 200? Or is there a better method… Maybe you could recommend a book?


Thank you for raising this issue.

The "best" solution depends on your personal definition of "best."

For example, say you define "best" as making the highest rate of return.

Then, you have this optimal solution:

(1) put one and only one instrument into your portfolio: namely, the strongest.

(2) when your instrument looses its status as strongest, take it out of the portfolio and repeat step 1.

All other portfolio selection methods inherit from this, your optimal solution. For example, you can diversify and get a slower, smoother and less profitable ride - a better fit for someone with a lower tolerance for volatility.

You might consider taking your feelings about <better> to Tribe as an entry point.

Jan 10, 2019 Gets Out of Debt

Hello Ed,

Over a year ago I was in £40,000 debt. Struggling with sleepless nights. Feeling I was in a deep dark pit with no way out.

Around that time I discovered futures trading and soon came across your name. I heard about your amazing returns and saw that as my way out. I decided to read everything I could find about you.

I then contacted you. You told me to learn programming, spend time in looking at the markets and learn statistics. You then advised books I should read.

In one of the books I picked up on something like “A losing trader can’t change in to a winning trader. That’s what winners do”. I also read another comment you made, something like successful traders are successful in what they are have done and are currently doing”. Sorry I can’t remember the exact quote.

But those quotes really made me think.

I want to trade, I find it’s puzzle is to be the fun part something about that is always pulling me towards it.

Anyways. I realised if I can’t be successful in what I am doing, and if I can’t change from a loser to a winner then that is all down to me. I have to fix me.

Then I set out to do that. Not by trading myself out of debt but by becoming successful in what I am doing.

This isn’t to show off. I know many people have done greater things. But those words of inspiration and action from my part had me out of that £40,000 debt around 6 months. Not by dying and not enjoying life through completely cutting cost. But by cutting unnecessary costs and working harder in becoming a winner and making more money wherever possible.

My next goal was to raise a stake for trading and continue on this track of being a winner and becoming a successful trader.

The last 6 months I have managed to save another £45,000 for trading.

I wanted to say thank you and that your insight really helped me. I now look forward to continuing my normal 9-5 Clark Kent job lol so I am not overwhelmed by the must be right or must make money on this trade strain. I trade in the evening on the close. And whenever possible, improve my knowledge of the markets, statistics and programming.

From this message if you have any insights you feel you should share with me or other about me please do. Growth invites advice from people with more knowledge. I know I still have much to learn.

Again thank you very much.

Thank you for sharing your process, including implementing discipline in your spending and in your trading.

Jan 8, 2019 TT_Chartbook Indicators


Thanks a lot for your reply.

Can I please ask I am trying to understand the following in the TT chart book published.

1. What is the arrow and red line means in "buy the dip" system. Is that mean buy at the arrow with red line as stop loss.

2. What is green and red line means in "Long only trend following" system. Is that mean long above green line with stop loss at red line and reverse.

I really appreciate any reply as I would like to clarify what I am thinking is same as what you meant.

Thanks and Regards,

Thank you for raising this issue.

In the Buy-the-Dip System, red lines indicate sell stops and triangles indicate entries.

In the Long-Only System green lines indicate buy stops, red lines indicate sell stops and triangles indicate entries.

Jan 8, 2019 Buy and Hold

Thank you for raising this issue.

Buy-and-Hold strategies work well for instruments that keep trending.

Otherwise, they don't work so well; you might ask some of your Bitcoin investor friends for their opinions on buy-and-hold.

Successful investors have a method for detecting trends and a method for staying with the trends until they end.

Technical traders use price patterns to detect trends; fundamental traders use economic indicators to detect trends.

Note: all profit comes from price change - and price change implies a trend.

You might consider taking your feelings of [confusion] to Tribe as an entry point.

January 5, 2019 Newbury UK Tribe

Ed good afternoon and I hope my email finds you well.

I attach an update for the Newbury Tribe which continues to meet as members request. Also, my thanks for your recent update to FAQ. I have a few Aha’s catching up which really brightens my day.

I notice I haven’t met you in person and would very much like too. I wonder if you might consider holding a workshop in London which I could attend? Alternatively, I plan to visit the USA in 2019 and wonder if I might buy you a coffee to say thank you for introducing me to TTP, Holotropic breath work and right livelihood?

Finally, I am most curious about your views on “perception and response” as a substitute for the phrase “cause and effect”?

Take care and as always a huge thank you for FAQ and your ever evolving support for Tribe.

Thank you for sharing your process and for updating your Newbury information.

In the Causal Model, we have cause and effect. We flip the switch (cause) and the light goes on (effect).

In the System Model, we consider the dynamics of a system of Levels and Rates-of-Flow between the Levels. A bucket with a hole at the bottom loses water, rapidly at first. As the water level declines, so does the flow rate. The level informs the rate and the rate drains the bucket. If we simulate this process as a series of small time intervals, we see the water level (and the flow rate) cooperating to generate a semi-exponential decline in both of them.

Note: purely exponential decay follows only if the flow rate and level have strict linear proportionality. In an actual bucket-and-hole situation, they have more of a square-root relationship..

Consider how a pendulum works. Causal view: you whack it and it goes back and forth.
System View: acceleration, velocity, position, friction, gravity and string length all interact to generate a sine wave with definite period, amplitude and decay.

Perception and Response can have various meanings depending on how you view them.

TTP - January 3, 2019

January 3, 2019

Thank you for pointing out some rather obscure language.

Perhaps I can present it another way.

People engaging TTP (or other spiritual path) generally follow a progression of approaches:

- Logical; try to understand; TTP theory.

- Medicinal; let off some steam and feel better; TTP Zero-Point Process; TTP Forms-Integration Process.

- Proactive; identify and change basic response patterns; TTP Rocks Process.

- Intentional; develop life skills; TTP Snapshot Process.

- Spiritual; explore the meaning of meaning; operate from the void.

In my experience, people who actively pursue TTP wind up operating from the void and also wind up attracting students and mentoring them.

Friday, October 25, 2019





根据伦敦金属交易所开出的市价,铝是以每公斤约1.60 到1.80美元成交,而黄金则以每公斤约4万8000美元成交。

这价钱的对比是一点也不稀奇,为什么? 因为在大自然里,地壳中含量最多的金属就是铝。在经济的供需原理下,当然就不这么值钱。




就曾经读到这样一个趣闻,就是法国囯王,拿破伦三世 (1855)曾经用铝制成的餐具招待他最珍爱的座上宾。





第一,先天性的供应。所知的黄金产量是远远不比铝土矿(bauxite) 来得丰富,但是,人为的作用与想法会暂时让黄金失色。














Syarikat Takaful - SteadyEarnings Growth With Fudamentals Intact

  • STMKB 9MFY19 normalised profit increased by +42.2%yoy to RM290.5m which came in above our expectation
  • Continued healthy growth rate for its 9MFY19 net earned contribution (NEC) which rose by 27.2%yoy to RM1.7bn
  • 9MFY19’s combined ratio improved by -17.3ppts yoy to 68.0% as mainly driven by lower claims ratio of 41.4% (- 15.1ppts yoy)
  • Nonetheless, earnings growth rate has shown signs of tapering and current valuation remains fair at this juncture
  • Maintain NEUTRAL with an unchanged TP of RM6.60

Profit growth remains solid… Syarikat Takaful Malaysia Keluarga Berhad (STMB)’s 9MFY19 earnings grew by +42.2%yoy to RM290.5m. This came in above our but within consensus’ expectation, accounting for 85.7% and 80.4% of the full year estimates respectively. The firm earnings growth was attributable to higher net Wakalah fee income arising mainly from continued double-digit business growth in the Family Takaful segment and higher net investment income. Note that the General Takaful segment only posted mildly positive growth as we opine it was moderated by the ongoing liberalisation phase of the Malaysian general insurance industry.

...underpinned by steady fundamentals. STMB’s 9MFY19 gross earned contribution jumped +25.9%yoy to RM2.0bn, arising predominantly from its Family Takaful business which has increased by +36.0%yoy to RM1.1bn. This was primarily due to the higher sales from credit-related products. Meanwhile, the net claims declined marginally by -1.4%yoy to –RM727.9m, attributable to lower claims (-8.0%yoy) from the general insurance segment. However, we not that there were a slight increase in net claims of +1.0%yoy at the Family Takaful segment. Coupled with higher NEC, these have contributed to the improvement in combined ratio to 68.0% (-17.3ppts yoy) and led to a higher underwriting margin of 32.0% (+17.3ppts yoy). We opine that its bancassurance partnerships and digital initiatives continue to keep both its sales demand strong and operating cost lean. Furthermore, investment income also jumped by +13.5%yoy to RM268.9m.

However, growth rate seems to be tapering off. Coming from a higher base and normalisation factor, we observed that earnings growth have tapered off in 3QFY19 as compared to 1QFY19 and 2QFY19 growth of +38.3%yoy and +60.5%yoy respectively. To recall, STMB’s earnings growth for 2HFY18 was primarily spurred by the new bancassurance partnership with Bank Rakyat to boost its credit-related products sales. In addition to the high base effect, the ongoing motor and fire liberalisation exercise to be adding downward pressure to its general insurance segment as well.

Earnings estimates. In light of the better-than-expected earnings, we are revising our forecasted FY19 earnings by +10.8% to RM375.7m. This is taking into account our assumption of higher gross earned contribution and lower claims. Note that we are making a marginal upward adjustment to our forecasted FY20 by +0.9%yoy to RM392.6m in view of higher base effects and normalisation factor.

Target Price. We are maintaining our target price of RM6.60 given we are adjusting FY20 marginally. We are pegging its FY20 diluted EPS to a PE of 14x (two-year historical average).

Maintain NEUTRAL. We remain optimistic of the strong fundamental aspects of the company, particularly with the growth from its Family Takaful segment. The bancassurance partnership model and efficient operation through digitalization continue to be core factors in driving the company’s earnings growth prospects. We are also of the view that with a relatively healthy combined ratio of 68.0% gives the company much bigger headroom to grow its portfolio. However, the ongoing de-tariffication of the motor and fire insurance continues to present a less encouraging performance from its general insurance segment. This segment alone contributes approximately 30.0% to its group’s gross earned contribution. Moreover, the earnings growth seems to be gradually tapering down albeit still at a solid double-digit growth rate due to effects from a higher base and normalization. Also, we opine that the valuation of the company has become relatively not attractive as it is trading close to its 2-year historical trading PE of 13.9x. A dividend yield of 2.4% from the group is not particularly appealing at the moment as well. All factors considered, we are maintaining our NEUTRAL recommendation on STMB.

Source: MIDF Research - 25 Oct 2019

RHB Research keeps Buy on Takaful Malaysia, TP RM8


Friday, 25 Oct 20198:46 AM MYT

KUALA LUMPUR: RHB Research is keeping its Buy call for Syarikat Takaful Keluarga Malaysia (STMB) with an unchanged target price of RM8, which is 29% upside from the last traded price of RM6.20, with 4% FY20 yield.

It said on Friday the 3Q19 earnings met its forecast but topped consensus estimates.

“We expect this set of solid results to provide reassurance on STM’s resilient fundamentals. Our call is premised on its superior ROE and increasingly attractive valuation after the recent share price pull-back, ” it said.

The 9M19 net earnings of RM289.7mil (+43% YoY) accounted for 76% of its forecasts and 80% of consensus.

The 3Q19 net earnings saw a strong 39% QoQ recovery from 2Q19, lifted by robust topline growth in the Family segment, higher Family wakalah fee income contribution and well-contained opex – management expense (ME) ratio improved 2.4ppts QoQ.

STMB’s overall claim experience remained favourable at a low 40.6% (2Q19: 41.2%). As a result, 3Q19 annualised ROAE recovered to 36.1% from 28.5% in 2Q19, bringing 9M19 annualised ROAE to 33.7%, based on its estimates.

Takaful operator income rebounded 10% QoQ, largely driven by 13% QoQ higher wakalah fee income.

Family wakalah fee income jumped 16% QoQ while General wakalah fee income grew 7.4% QoQ.

“We are unperturbed by the 22% QoQ drop in total surplus transfers – from both the Family and General segments – as they only contribute c.5-6% to the operator’s topline.

“Coupled with a 3.8ppts QoQ improvement in the ME ratio to 35%, the company’s bottomline spiked up by 39% QoQ for the quarter, ” it said.

STMB’s Family segment recorded +17% QoQ growth in gross earned contributions (GEC) on higher credit-related product sales.

Surplus attributable to takaful operator/participants (bottomline) grew 5.6% QoQ, partially offset by a RM9mil fair value loss.

General segment GEC saw a modest 3% QoQ growth but dipped by 3% YoY – reflecting the challenging business environment in the general insurance/takaful space.

The bottomline was at RM7.6m in 3Q19 (-38% QoQ), impacted by unfavourable claim experience.

“Nevertheless, we are encouraged by management’s capability in preserving bottomlines amidst a challenging environment.

“We make no changes to our earnings and TP post 3Q19 results. Our GGM-derived RM8 TP is based on 4.8 times FY20F P/BV, premised on its superior ROE and takaful (Islamic insurance) growth outpacing that of conventional, ” RHB Research said.


譚新強:美國人事業前景暗淡 是機械人的錯?



共和黨選情看似較簡單,只有特朗普總統一個參選人,但當然選情仍有極大暗湧。民主黨掌控的眾議院已開始了彈劾調查(impeachment inquiry),看來建議正式啟動彈劾程序的機會很高。如在眾議院進行彈劾投票,通過的機會非常高。當然仍需通過參議院的審判程序(Senate trial),到時控辯方必將有一場龍爭虎鬥的辯論。參議院大多數共和黨領袖Mitch McConnell仍未對「烏克蘭門」事件表態,但計劃企圖限制審判時間表,已遭不少兩黨議員反對。要成功通過參議院不容易,美國歷史上從未成功過,需要三分之二的絕大多數,暫時只有兩三位共和黨議員如Mitt Romney和Susan Collins等有可能支持彈劾,票數仍不夠。

支持彈劾的人認為即使最後不成功,但在調查和審判期間,都很可能揭露更多例如逃稅和洗黑錢等其他嫌疑罪行。但特朗普就當然希望可扭轉劣勢,利用預期的被判無罪作為反擊工具,指摘彈劾為另一次無根據的witch hunt(獵巫行動)。

民主黨那邊就熱鬧得多,最初參選人數超過25名,更已進行了4輪辯論大會,10月15日舉行的上一場,被認為仍有機會而被獲邀的已跌至12位。在民調中叮噹馬頭,遠遠領先其他人的是前副總統拜登,和麻省參議員Elizabeth Warren(沃倫),第三位是老將Bernie Sanders(桑德斯),真佩服他,剛做完心臟心術不久,竟繼續參加辯論會,希望他身體健康,能繼續堅持下去。


其他人基本上都是陪跑,繼續的原因很多,為下次選舉鋪路、博取被選為副總統提名人、或最少提高知名度,對事業總有幫助。剩下來較為突出的有Pete Buttigieg、Beto O'Rourke和Andrew Yang (楊安澤)。Buttigieg和O'Rourke都是較年輕白人,且都有優秀學歷,亦有良好政績(Buttigieg是市長亦是退伍軍人,O'Rourke曾當眾議員),政治前途光明。

但楊安澤又是何許人物呢?竟然身為華人都這麼厲害,仍可打進最後12強?他年紀不大,只44歲,在紐約州出生,父母來自台灣,爸爸是科學家,媽媽也是科技公司管理層。他自己念的是法律,但只做了一段很短時間律師,很快就加入初創界,最主要是在一間公開試補習公司Manhattan Prep當過CEO,後來把公司賣掉,大概賺了點錢,就創立了一間非牟利的創投公司Venture For America,訓練下一代創業人才。

楊的競選政綱很簡單,主要只有一項,就是警告大家AI、機械人和自動化對未來大量工作崗位的威脅。因此他建議政府給予所有18歲以上美國人每月1000美元的UBI(Universal Basic Income,全民基本收入)。這個建議聽起來非常吸引和合時宜,所以得到不少人支持,包括Tesla老闆Elon Musk。

在上場辯論會,主持提出相關問題,有研究警告未來十年內,美國25%工作崗位或將受到威脅,參選人有何對策?但後來經濟諾獎得主Paul Krugman(克魯明)在專欄內指出這主持言過其實,研究只說在未來數十年,25%的工作崗位將受到一定影響。Krugman認為這個「Robot恐懼症」過度誇張,只迎合現代人的偏見,把對經濟的各種缺點,包括貧富懸殊,工作缺乏晉升機會等問題,都賴在自動化頭上。


當然,很多人為現時情况辯護,又再說"This time is different",認為現今科技進步速度比從前快,所以今次威脅是真的!但Krugman貴為諾貝爾經濟學獎得主,當然不會無的放矢,他提出有力證據,指由2007至2018年,工人生產力增長率,竟比之前11年跌了一半,互聯網的極速發展似乎一點幫助都沒有。我不肯定這比較是否公平,因為2008年的金融海嘯,肯定對所有經濟指標,包括生產力增長都有影響。



但如果美國經濟不錯,為何左翼政客如Warren、Sanders、Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez(AOC)和楊安澤等大有巿場,右翼民粹主義同樣仍有不少支持者?我相信主要原因有兩個,第一是過去十年的QE,和可能未來數年西方的貨幣政策主調——負利率,都令貧富懸殊加劇。





[譚新強 中環新譚]





做事須合法 最多走法律罅



[周顯 投資二三事]

Thursday, October 24, 2019

[转贴] 諾貝爾獎金百年花不完 理財秘訣僅靠這2招

  1. 諾貝爾基金的來源
  2. 基金會從瀕臨破產到重生的故事
  3. 為什麼基金會經過100多年錢還是花不完
  4. 我們可以做2步驟,讓資產翻倍
諾貝爾基金的來源 創辦人的故事…

阿佛烈‧伯恩哈德‧諾貝爾(Alfred Bernhard Nobel)生於1833年,是瑞典的化學家、工程師、發明家等,最著名的發明就是「炸藥」,主要是如何安全生產和使用炸藥,如果運用的好,對於岩石爆破和開挖山洞等都有很大的幫助,但由於炸藥還是不夠穩定,不耐搖晃撞擊,在搬運過程還是一個很頭大的問題。

一則烏龍新聞 讓他決定創辦諾貝爾獎



改變現狀:1953 年開始,將錢投在股市和不動產



為何歷時百餘年 諾貝爾基金資產還是花不完?

原本資金只有3,100萬瑞典克朗,到了2017年經高達29.9億元瑞典克朗,增值約93倍,相當驚人。在2017年的時候,收入竟高達 2.53 億元瑞典克朗,其中主要是來自投資變現占了2億元瑞典克朗,股利5千萬瑞典克朗以及利息收入1.1千萬瑞典克朗。




從這個故事學到 做到2件事就可讓資產增值

1. 將資金放在對的地方,例如股市



2. 執行「不要雞蛋放在同一籃子」的策略



[转贴] 彭博揭密Google如何「養套殺」 可望年賺逾700億!


《彭博》在報導中首先提到,Google雲端儲存吸引了大量用戶,多年以後的現在,許多用戶已感到容量不足,Google也在這段期間順勢推出「Google One」服務,鼓勵用戶從腰包中掏錢。

接著報導提到Google這些年來如何逐步縮限優惠,如2004年Google推出Gmail時,每2年就會把容量上限擴大1次,但2013年起取消、過去購買Chromebook筆電的用戶可獲得2年免費100 GB容量,然而從今年5月開始只剩1年、而10月發表的新款Pixel手機依然提供免費的無限制相片雲端存儲,但畫質被壓低。

表面上這種影響看似不大,用戶可以把舊的檔案刪除,也有人因此弄了多個帳戶,況且Google One主打每個月付1.99美元(約新台幣61元)就有100 GB,對真正有需要的人而言亦非大錢,然而報導指出,在吸引了超過10億用戶以後,只要有10%的用戶付錢,Google每年就可多24億美元(約新台幣734.18億元)的收入。

分析员:展望不乐观 安联银行3年财测下砍
















Wednesday, October 23, 2019

船租飙升新合约出笼 大马油气双雄唱丰收

吉隆坡22日讯)摩根大通(JPMorgan)认为,基于油轮船租现价(spot price)上涨,以及浮式储卸生产油船(FPSO)领域应会颁出更多丰厚合约,MISC公司(MISC,3816,主板交通物流股)和布米阿玛达(ARMADA,5210,主板能源股)料会是大马油气业的主要受惠者。

摩根大通分析员指出, 由于美国制裁6家中国油轮公司,而埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil)禁止与委内瑞拉相关油船扯上关系,加上中东地缘政治风险增高,如今油轮船租现价飙升,MISC公司将是大马油气业的主要赢家。





MISC管理层对分析员表示,短期内FPSO新项目将集中在巴西,也透露对巴西国家石油公司(Petrobas)旗下Mero-3和Itapu FPSO项目感兴趣。



除了MISC公司,该分析员也看好布米阿玛达可在FPSO新项目中分得一杯羹,因该公司是Karoon公司旗下巴西Neon & Goia油田FPSO项目竞标的领跑者。布米阿玛达也有意争取埃尼集团(Eni)在尼日利亚Zabazaba油田及Marine XII油田FPSO项目。


Hartalega Holdings - Driven by Expansion

Author: rakutentrade | Publish date: Wed, 23 Oct 2019, 2:56 PM

We are positive about Hartalega (HARTA) growth going forward underpinned by uptick in demand, cost savings initiatives and potential margins expansion from operating efficiency and better economies of scale from Plant 5. BUY with TP of RM5.85 based on 36x FY20E EPS. We like HARTA for: (i) its “highly automated production processes” model, which is moving from ‘good’ to ‘great’ as they are head and shoulders above its peers in terms of better margins and cost reduction management, (ii) constantly evolving via innovative products development, and (iii) its booming nitrile gloves segment.

Tell-tale signs of a pent-up demand for nitrile gloves potentially on re-stocking activities judging by industry longer delivery lead times are pointing towards a better sequential quarter in 2QFY20. We understand that the robust demand for nitrile has led to longer delivery lead times (the time taken between order and delivery) which has risen to between 45 to 50 days as compared to 30 to 40 days. We are positive on stronger growth in subsequent quarters underpinned by uptick in nitrile demand, to be driven by re-stocking activities.

Due to the impact of trade war whereby effective Sept 1, a 15% tariff will be imposed on Chinese-made medical and vinyl gloves, local rubber glove players expect to see an uptick in demand for gloves of which the positive impact is expected to be felt from the Dec-ending quarter period. Theoretically, the tariff hike is expected to increase the price for Chinese-made gloves, which could compel a switch of US gloves demand to Malaysian glove players including HARTA where US accounts for an estimated 53% of total volume sales.

We expect volume growth from Harta’s capacity expansion averaging 26% per annum over the past seven years to more than offset any potential crimp in margins. The first line of Plant 6 (installed capacity of 4.7bn pieces) is targeted to commence commercial operations in 1Q20. Plant 7 is expected to be commissioned by 2H20, which will focus on small orders as well as specialty products with an annual installed capacity of 3.4bn pieces. We expect contributions from Plant 5 to drive FY20 earnings growth. All in, Plant 5, 6 and 7 will add a total capacity of 12.1bn pieces, raising installed capacity by 27% to 44.6bn pieces per annum.

Source: Rakuten Research - 23 Oct 2019

Tuesday, October 22, 2019

Performance of VS Industry will give us where some of the businesses will be heading

I have in the past mentioned about focus on businesses that has sales to overseas or in short exports. This however does not include stocks dealing in palm oil as it has other challenges themselves. When I mentioned these, I was more of referring to the Guan Chong's of this world, the semiconductor stocks such as Globetronics, MPI, Unisem, Vitrox, Pentamaster, PIE and maybe rubber gloves - although I am seeing some oversupply position among the rubber gloves makers in the short term.

Anyway, as we know - the world is transitioning. We are seeing the clash of two superpowers - US and China. When two superpowers collide, are we the pelanduk (mousedeer) that will die in between (a Malaysian proverb - Dua Gajah bertarung, pelanduk mati in tengah-tengah).

Malaysia, coincidently is not taking sides - particularly in business. We are exporting to both countries. We do business with both countries - business and politically.

In dealing with trade wars, we have to be really in the know what type of companies and business we are dealing with. Semiconductor company - in this particular case - VS Industry - a downstream player - also called a box builder. It is one of the largest South East Asian owned box maker - i.e. the one that assembles, value adds and helps one of its customers, Dyson to manufacture its vacuum cleaners. Dyson for your knowledge does not own a single factory - just like Nike's model - or closer Apple.

In this article, I am not going to mention in detail the business of VS but what it has announced recently and where some of our companies in Malaysia will be heading - not the next few quarters alone but the next few years at least. As a summary, VS Industry has businesses in three countries - Malaysia, China and Indonesia (as below latest results - 4Q19).

Malaysian revenue comprise of 80% of its total revenue. Surprisingly, revenue from Indonesian operations has dropped while unsurprisingly revenue from China dropped even further. As we can see, Malaysia is highly profitable and China is making losses. Indonesia is barely breaking even. China's losses as it has mentioned is because the company seems to be downsizing in that country - not surprising. VS is taking a financial hit in China as it seems that they are focusing harder in Malaysia.

So, what we are seeing is a business where Malaysia is somewhat strong in among our competitor countries like Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand and China (which overtook us by far in the last 2 decades). As below is the explanation as provided by the management of VS which I tend to believe and agree. (no point rewriting them as I can make use of the wonders of cut and paste)

As mentioned above, we know already given that if we do some "reading and watching" and if we know the geopolitical and cross border business perspective, it is the start of where we see what we may see more in the near and medium term future.

More and more businesses are looking out of China - still the factory for the world, and Vietnam and Malaysia will get more queries. The above performance, I see as just the beginning - for VS and few more companies in Malaysia. This is the reason why I am betting on PIE Industrial. PIE, to me could be even better as it is largely only Malaysian operation and does not have operations in China - the setback that we see through VS. The weakness for PIE though is that it is smaller than VS and it is Taiwanese controlled.

Given that if I have time, I will share more of my opinion on export businesses in Malaysia and the trade which I have been spending a lot of time and my current dealings in.

I am though a little bit not satisfied that we start to see this trend as above through VS and several more, but I do not think the "G" i.e. "government, side is doing enough. There are opportunities I think with this trend, moving forward. VS, by the way is doing quite well as a company and management given that they are managing the transitioning - it is not easy.

Market is idiot to treat all semiconductor companies the same

The world's semiconductor market is a $400 billion market. Thank goodness, some of the Malaysian companies and economy is in the play. A large part of the Malaysian semiconductor industry though is dependent on foreign companies such as Intel, Agilent, First Solar, Infineon. The real serious local companies only comprise of not more than 100 companies. The ones that are listed on Bursa Malaysia and seriously in play may not exceed 20.

Just take a look at China's exports below, which electronics have been the largest by far. The trade war is about semiconductor and its related industries (or larger context, technology per se) war. Electronics and electronics related products probably comprise 40% of its exports. 

"The following export product groups categorize the highest dollar value in Chinese global shipments during 2018. Also shown is the percentage share each export category represents in terms of overall exports from China.

  1. Electrical machinery, equipment: US$664.4 billion (26.6% of total exports)
  2. Machinery including computers: $430 billion (17.2%)
  3. Furniture, bedding, lighting, signs, prefab buildings: $96.4 billion (3.9%)
  4. Plastics, plastic articles: $80.1 billion (3.2%)
  5. Vehicles: $75.1 billion (3%)
  6. Knit or crochet clothing, accessories: $73.5 billion (2.9%)
  7. Clothing, accessories (not knit or crochet): $71.4 billion (2.9%)
  8. Optical, technical, medical apparatus: $71.4 billion (2.9%)
  9. Articles of iron or steel: $65.6 billion (2.6%)
  10. Organic chemicals: $59.8 billion (2.4%)"
If US, and probably Europe in the future is to reign on China's strength in technology related sector, a large sum of these businesses is going to move to countries that are to pick them up.

Vietnam is going to be the largest beneficiary. Singapore will not. Malaysia will benefit partially, but we need to know which company will benefit from it. If we look below, we are just playing every company in the semiconductor list. I have seen that the market have been excited about the better pick up in Iphone 11 sales, hence Inari's shares have picked up. Are we looking that short term? Is Inari mainly only produces its chips for IPhone?

Let's look at where in the value chain is Inari. Who does Inari sells to? And to which value chain it is in. Inari sells to Broadcom, Osram largely. These companies a portion of it sells to companies in China or Chinese companies and they are most of the time assembling their products in China. These products are sold to US and many parts of the world. That's why packaging companies are assembling semiconductors in package format. Many of Broadcom's components are not substitutable. If there are, high chance it is another US or European company.

But, China is working very very hard to make themselves. I cannot see Inari to be exciting as they are supporter of American based companies. China, if they can will try to avoid.

Let me put in this perspective. No semiconductor company if they are substantial in size, can be just dependent on one country. I have heard of China, because of the threat from the trade war has asked its companies to support Chinese companies first. Hence, the Chinese manufacturers are looking within then only external. Usually, in this scenario if they can find substitute, they will buy local. 
Only when there is no substitute, they will have no choice but to buy foreign. On the other hand, foreign companies that have been having products manufactured in China, will want to look for other alternatives.

Why I like box-build companies

Unlike Inari for example, which is dependent largely on Broadcom, many of these box build companies are more spread out when comes to its customers base. They can build for US. They can also build for Europe. When US is threatening to impose 25% tariff, and they have done it, many companies will look beyond China because the final product after VS Industry or PIE Industrial have produced will be shipped to US. That is where the 25% is imposed - after VS has manufactured and put them in the corrugated carton box - and later sent to US.

Today, if I am a big size manufacturer and doing assembly out of China, some of these companies may want to approach me. 

If I am a company that my product is sent to China for it to be assembled, I may be suffering. If I am doing something where my work or product can be replaced by some Chinese companies, I may be suffering as well - since China is working on "Buy Chinese goods first".

Remember, we have to know which part of the value chain our Bursa companies are.

RHB keeps 'Buy' on Axis REIT, sees more acquisitions

Tuesday, 22 Oct 20198:21 AM MYT

KUALA LUMPUR: RHB research maintained its buy call and target price of RM2.05 on Axis REIT as it expects future earnings growth, despite the recent disappointing earnings result.

According to the research house, it expects earnings expansion underpinned by the REIT's acquisition spree with an acquisition target value of RM135mil.

Axis REIT has acquired a total of six assets year to date for a total of 47 assets under its belt as at 3Q19.

RHB expects the buying trend to continue and the REIT to have a total of 51 assts by mid-2020, including the acquisitions of a factory/warehouse in Nilai and a warehouse in Gelang Patah announced earlier this month.

However, there may be a share placement exercise at the end of the year or in the firt quarter of 2020 to pare down the REIT's debts given its fearing level having exceeded the 40% mark.

Furthermore, the non-renewal risk for the REIT is low as 84% of the space up for renewal comrpise office industrial, warehouse logistics, and manufacturing facilities.

The risk of non-renewal for these single-tenanted assets is likely to be mitigated due to the existing fixed facilities in place.

"Of the c.22% of the total NLA up for renewal for FY19 (slightly higher than 18% in FY18), 61% of the leases have already been renewed as of Sep 2019," said RHB.

In the recent earnings announcement, Axis REIT's 9M19 core net profit of RM95.8mil came to only about 71% of RHB's and consensus estimates.

"Revenue increased 11.5% YoY due to the higher rental contribution coming from Axis Mega DC, Axis Aerotech, and three other properties.

"Meanwhile, core net profit grew c.10% YoY, dragged down slightly by higher financing cost due to an increase in borrowing used to fund acquisitions," said RHB.

It added that rental reversion was positive at 3% year to date.


Monday, October 21, 2019

Heineken Malaysia - Excise Duty Uncertainty Dissipates

Author: HLInvest | Publish date: Mon, 21 Oct 2019, 5:45 PM

Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng reaffirmed the government’s stance on cracking down on illicit alcohol trade in lieu of increasing Malaysia’s alcohol excise duty structure. We expect Heineken to focus on growing the premium brands in its portfolio which should lead to better margins. After accounting for returning legal volumes and better margins from the growth of premium brands, our FY20/21 earnings rise by 3.4%/3.8%. Given the anticipated growth in legal volumes from government clamp down on illicit, we tweak our WACC in DCF valuation methodology from 8.0% to 7.5% while TG is unchanged at 2.5%. After earnings adjustment, our TP rises from RM21.00 to RM26.50. Upgrade to BUY.

Recap. Recall that Heineken recorded sales growth of 14.0% (after removing SST impact) in 1H19 from robust performance in 1Q19 and growth in core brands in 2Q19.

War on illicit alcohol trade to continue. Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng reaffirmed the government’s stance on cracking down on illicit alcohol trade in lieu of increasing Malaysia’s alcohol excise duty structure. Furthermore, note that in the recent Budget 2020 announcement, the government allocated RM235m to purchase an additional 20 cargo scanners to clamp down on illegal import activity. Currently, counterfeit alcohol market share is believed to be as high as 25% in Peninsular Malaysia and 80% in East Malaysia.

Growth in premium brands to boost margins. We expect Heineken to focus on growing the premium brands (Strongbow, Apple Fox, Heineken 0.0) in its portfolio which should lead to better margins due to (1) higher shelf prices (despite similar production cost); and (2) lower alcohol content (Strongbow, Apple Fox cider: 4.5% ABV and Heineken 0.0: 0% ABV). Note that increased volumes of Heineken’s lower ABV product lines result in lower excise cost incurred to Heineken, which would result in better margins.

Heineken 0.0. We are particularly optimistic on Heineken’s launch of Heineken 0.0, a 0% ABV product offering. We expect Heineken 0.0 to tap into the global trend of moderate alcohol drinking and healthier consumption patterns. Note that Heineken 0.0 has half the calories of a regular Heineken beer at just 21 calories per 100ml. To date, Heineken 0.0 has been made available in over 50 countries, including neighbouring countries Singapore and Thailand.

E-commerce venture ‘Drinkies’. Heineken’s venture into online delivery with their e commerce platform ‘Drinkies’ is set up to deliver Heineken products to anywhere within the Klang Valley and Penang within 60 minutes for just a RM8 delivery fee. While we expect the venture to incur marketing investment, we expect it to add significant volumes to Heineken’s already leading market share position in the Malaysian market of an estimated 60-65%.

Forecast. After accounting for returning legal volumes and better margins from the growth of premium brands, our FY20/21 earnings rise slightly by 3.4%/3.8%.

Upgrade to BUY. Given the anticipated growth in legal volumes from government clamp down on illicit, we tweak our WACC in DCF valuation methodology from 8.0% to7.5% while TG is unchanged at2.5%). After earnings adjustment, our TP rises from RM21.00 to RM26.50.

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 21 Oct 2019

Axis REIT - Another Acquisition on the Cards

Author: HLInvest | Publish date: Mon, 21 Oct 2019, 5:46 PM

Axis REIT has proposed to acquire an industrial property for a total sum of RM65m from Rancak Beta Sdn. Bhd. Upon completion by first half of FY20, the properties shall be leased to Schenker Logistics (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. We are positive on the news as the acquisition amount is fair and is yield accretive. We retain forecast pending acquisition completion. Maintain BUY with unchanged TP of RM2.01, based on targeted yield of 4.7%. We like Axis REIT due to its high occupancy diversified portfolio and being one of the few Shariah compliant REITs.

Axis REIT has proposed to acquire a piece of industrial land of approximately 356k sqft from Rancak Beta Sdn. Bhd. The land is located within Pelabuhan Tanjung Pelepas (PTP) Free Trade Zone. The property includes a single-storey warehouse cum-office building together with ancillary buildings. The proposed acquisition will cost RM65m, to be funded by existing debt facility. The property has a 100% occupancy rate as at 14th October 2019 and the proposal is expected to be completed by first half of FY20. Upon completion, the property with a net lettable area of 223k sqft shall be leased to Schenker Logistics (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. for a fixed period of 10 years from the commencement date of 1st May 2018 to 30th April 2028 with an option to renew for another 5 years. The rental rate is at RM401k per month for the first 5 years with an 11% rental step-up in the next subsequent 5 years.

Positive. We are positive on the acquisition as it is yield accretive, given the net yield of 7.4% (before Islamic financing cost) vs its current yield of 5.2%. With the new assets, our FY20-21 earnings will improve by 0.3% and 1% respectively. The property will have a fixed tenant under a fixed long term lease of 10 years, which further minimises the risk to Axis REIT. We feel the acquisition price works out to be fair for industrial space in Pelabuhan Tanjung Pelepas (PTP) Free Trade Zone and it is at par to current market value (RM65m), based on valuations by the independent valuer. Furthermore, the lessee, Schenker Logistics (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd., is one of Axis REIT’s existing top 10 tenants in the portfolio. The lessee is a one-stop-logistics provider offering total integrated logistics services to local, regional and global customers.

Gearing. Axis REIT intends to utilise debt facility of RM65m from its existing credit facilities. Gearing ratio is expected to increase to 38.7% from 37.3% (FY18), which is below the gearing limit of 50% prescribed by the Securities Commission Malaysia.

Forecast. We maintain our forecast pending completion of the acquisition.

Maintain BUY, TP: RM2.01. We maintain BUY with unchanged target price RM2.01. To note, our valuation is based on 1SD below 2-year historical average yield spread between Axis REIT and 10-year MGS yield in view of increased popularity in industrial properties, high occupant tenancy in its diversified portfolio and also one of the few Shariah compliant REITs.

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 21 Oct 2019

Malaysian beneficiaries of US-China trade war

Monday, 21 Oct 2019


Globetronics Technology Bhd chief executive officer Datuk Heng Huck Lee said the cost of fresh investments for a joint-venture (JV) project could be high, and the processing time to conclude any JV deal would take a while to complete.

GEORGE TOWN: Northern region-based plastic, tissue paper, fastener, radio frequency chip and semiconductor test-equipment manufacturers are among the beneficiaries of the United States-China trade conflict.

Not all Malaysian electronic manufacturers will automatically gain from the conflict.

The trade war has prompted multinational corporations (MNCs) in China to outsource production activities to South-East Asia.

However, the type of industry in which a local company is involved and its financial capability to invest determine its opportunities to gain from the trade war.

Globetronics Technology Bhd

image: chief executive officer Datuk Heng Huck Lee said the cost of fresh investments for a joint-venture (JV) project could be high, and the processing time to conclude any JV deal would take a while to complete.

“By that time, if there’s a change of leadership in the US next year, the tariff war may enter an uncertain phase.

“For us, we prefer leasing our clean-room facility to an MNC that is planning to relocate to Malaysia.

“We are now in advance stages of finalising a deal to lease our clean-room facility in Kuala Lumpur to a China company that manufactures for a major US customer, “ said Heng.

Trade war uncertainties have prompted Globetronics customers to take a wait-and-see attitude and hold back on placing long-term orders, Heng added.

“This has affected business performance, created uncertainty in new investment decisions, and delayed production loading for some of our product lines, ” he said.

Mini-Circuits Technologies (Malaysia), a subsidiary of the New York-based Scientific Componentz, said the group’s Penang facility is now manufacturing about 30% of the radio frequency chips (RF) for the worldwide market.

President and chief executive officer Datuk Seri Kelvin Kiew said the group has relocated its RF production activities from China to Penang.

“We have spent RM20mil over the past one year to expand to enable the Penang plant to take on the RF production from China.

“Our expansion here has also benefited the small and medium enterprises supporting us.

“We have, for example, spent about RM4mil this year to acquire locally made test equipment from a Penang-based company, ” he added.

Pentamaster Corp Bhd

image: is another beneficiary. Group chairman C B Chuah said since March 31, the electronic group has secured orders for around 100 semiconductor test equipment, of which about 40% is for Chinese MNCs producing for the US market.

“Because of the US-China trade war, it does not make sense for the companies to make the machines and ship from China.

“They will have to pay the high duties imposed on China-made products, ” he said.

The equipment, priced between US$150,000 and US$500,000, will be used for checking 3D sensors used for the facial recognition features of smartphones.

The US-China trade war impacts the plastic-making industry positively because the top resin producers in the US will have a new supply of 12 million tonnes for the period of 2020-2021.


image: managing director Kelvin Khaw said from 2022 to 2024, an additional 4.5 million tonnes of resin supply would kick in.

“The MNCs in Texas started expanding their production capacity in 2015.

“The expansion is almost completed, and the new supply is expected to come in next year.

“Because of the trade war, China is now cut off from the US resin supply.

“So, the US resin producers will look to South-East Asia to sell, triggering resin prices to spiral downwards.

“We expect polyethylene (PE) price to shrink further by 5% to 10% in the short to medium term, ” he said.

The resin price is now US$850 versus US$1,050 per tonne in January 2019.

Khaw said the lower resin prices enable the group to produce more cost-effectively.

“Our production technology reduces further the production cost, allows us to price our flexible packaging materials even more competitively in the market, and cushion the group against the anticipated slowdown in Japan and the domestic market, ” Khaw added.

US resin importers are also looking for alternatives besides China.


image: managing director Datuk Ang Poon Chuan said some of them are talking to Thong Guan to source plastic packaging materials.

“We have recently set up a manufacturing facility with a Hong Kong-based company to produce courier bags in Sungai Petani. We expect the business to contribute positively to our 2019 revenue.

“Chinese manufacturers are investing here because Chinese plastic products entering the US face a 25% import duty, ” he said.

Fastener manufacturers with the capability of making bolts and nuts according to US standards and specifications have the upper hand over rivals as US companies source from South-East Asia.

Chin Well Holdings Bhd

image: executive director Tsai Chia-ling said the US still used the imperial system that measures in feet and inches.‌

“Chinese companies are among the few in the world with the capacity to produce fasteners according to US standards and specifications.

“US importers of steel hardware products have reduced sourcing from China because of the 25% duty they have to pay for China-made goods.

“They are now turning to South-East Asia, ” she said.

Chin Well is able to tap into the opportunities because it is capable of making fasteners that conform to US standards and specifications.

So, there is a need for Chin Well to raise production.

“Smaller competitors in the region that are unable to invest in the moulds, which cost between RM2mil and RM3mil to produce fasteners suitable for the US market, would lose out, ”‌ she added.

Tsai said steel hardware product wholesalers and distributors in the US have reduced sourcing from China by 30% to 70%.

“However, they won’t place all their orders with us, as the preference is to source from a few manufacturers to ensure there is no disruption in the supply.

“This means they would still source from China and a few other Asian suppliers, ” she said, adding that the group is looking at exporting 20% of its targeted output to the US market in 2020.

“We also want the do-it-yourself (DIY) fasteners to contribute to 20% of group revenue in 2020, from about 10% currently.

“For example, we will be exporting at least 50 containers of DIY screws per month to the US in 2020, compared to 30 previously, ”‌ she added.


image: also sees new opportunities.

It is expanding its overseas business which will help improve its top and bottom lines for the financial year ending April 30,2020.

Group chairman and managing director Lee See Jin said it would supply semi-finished paper and finished paper products to a Chinese maker of decorative papers and napkins who would be operational in the northern region early next year.

“We have locked in orders from the Chinese company relocating here because of the US-China trade conflict, ” Lee said.


Saturday, October 19, 2019

亏本退场停止失血售马糖厂 FGV可翻身









FGV控股证实,目前正与至少4家公司磋商脱售白糖业务部分股权事宜;但丰益国际(Wilmar International)随后否认。








Friday, October 18, 2019

【独家】诗董挑战顶级手套 林伟才:欢迎良性竞争




(吉隆坡17日讯)泰国诗董橡胶公司(Sri Trang Agro Industry)酝酿将手套业务挂牌上市,有分析员预言,诗董手套将会在中期之内崛起成为顶级手套(TOPGLOV,7113,主板保健股)的劲敌。


















Fitch Solutions: Medical devices industry to gain from trade war

Fitch Solutions: Medical devices industry to gain from trade war
Friday, 18 Oct 2019


“In the short term, Malaysian rubber glove manufacturers will likely benefit from the recent US tariffs imposed on Chinese medical gloves. In the longer term, additional tariffs on a broad range of medical devices imposed by both China and the US could help drive direct foreign investment into Malaysia, boosting its international competitiveness, ” Fitch Solutions said

KUALA LUMPUR: Fitch Solutions Macro Research expects Malaysia’s medical devices industry, including gloves, to benefit from the increasingly acrimonious trade war between the US and China.

In a statement yesterday, it said Malaysia can be used as an alternative manufacturing base for both the US and Chinese markets.

“In the short term, Malaysian rubber glove manufacturers will likely benefit from the recent US tariffs imposed on Chinese medical gloves.

“In the longer term, additional tariffs on a broad range of medical devices imposed by both China and the US could help drive direct foreign investment into Malaysia, boosting its international competitiveness, ” it said.

Recent moves by the US government to further ramp up tariffs on Chinese-made products will increase pressure for Chinese companies targeting the US market to relocate manufacturing operations.

It pointed out Malaysia’s unhindered access to the US market and other major world markets increases its attractiveness as an alternative manufacturing base.

It said initially, Malaysian rubber glove manufacturers stand to benefit from the recent US tariffs imposed on Chinese medical gloves.

The US government had imposed a 15% tariff on medical gloves made in China from Sept 1. Hence, US importers had been seeking alternative sources of supply from other manufacturers in Asia.

“As the world’s largest producer of rubber gloves, Malaysia stands to benefit from this shift in supply chain, ” it said.

The US imported medical gloves valued at US$2bil in 2018, of which around three-quarters came from Malays ia and 11% from China. Thailand and Indonesia are the other main suppliers.

Higher US demand for Malaysian gloves will boost industry profit margins which have been hit by a hike in raw material costs and surplus capacity due to over-expansion by the country’s four top glove producers, Hartalega Holdings, Kossan Rubber Industries
image:, Supermax and Top Glove.

On the downside, the market environment for medical gloves in Europe is likely to become more competitive as Chinese producers shift their focus away from the US market.

“In the longer term, additional tariffs on a broad range of medical devices arising from the US-China trade war could help drive direct foreign investment (FDI) into Malaysia’s medical device industry, boosting its international competitiveness.

“We highlight that the Malaysian government is actively encouraging more investment from China particularly in hi-tech industries, ” it said.

During a meeting of the Malaysia-China Belt and Road Economic Cooperation Forum in August, Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng stated that Malaysia wass keen to learn from Chinese expertise in artificial intelligence, advanced materials, robotics and cloud computing.

This would allow Malaysia to build on current initiatives to boost hi-tech manufacturing such as the Indus try4WRD national policy on Indus try 4.0 launched in 2018 and the Industry Digitalisation Transformation Fund launched in 1Q, 2019.

“Investment in smart technology will stand Malaysia in good stead to expand manufacturing of hi-tech medical devices, ” it said.

Fitch Solutions note that to date US tariffs on Chinese-made medical devices have mainly targeted diagnostic imaging and electro-medical apparatus with most consumables remaining exempt.

Conversely, Chinese tariffs on US products have targeted a much broader range of devices and this could encourage more investment from the US which is already the top investor in Malaysia’s manufacturing sector.

US medical devices companies with manufacturing operations in Malaysia include Abbott, Becton Dickinson, Boston Scientific, Cardinal Health, Medtronic and Teleflex.


Chipmaker TSMC raises capex by up to US$5bil

Friday, 18 Oct 2019


File Picture: Lora Ho, chief financial officer of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), left, and C. C. Wei, chief executive officer, attend the company's annual general meeting in Hsinchu, Taiwan, on Wednesday, June 5, 2019.

TAIPEI: Apple Inc supplier TSMC raised its 2019 capital spending plan by up to US$5bil yesterday and forecast a nearly 10% rise in fourth-quarter revenue on strong demand for faster mobile chips and new high-end smartphones.

The bullish forecast by the world’s top contract chipmaker should ease investor fears of a global tech slowdown, as the world economic growth outlook has dimmed largely due to a 15-month trade war between the United States and China.

“5G smartphone growth momentum is stronger than we expected... We have good reasons to increase our capex this year and next year, ” TSMC CEO C.C. Wei (pic) told an earnings briefing after reporting the Taiwanese company’s strongest quarterly profit growth in more than two years.

Smartphone makers including Samsung Electronics Co Ltd and Huawei Technologies Co Ltd are racing to develop phones enabled with the 5G technology, which could be up to 100 times faster than current 4G networks.

TSMC, formally Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd, whose clients also include Qualcomm Inc and Huawei, raised its 2019 capex to US$14bil-US$15bil yesterday from an earlier forecast of US$10bil-US$11bil.

It expected fourth-quarter revenue of between US$10.2bil and US$10.3bil, up from US$9.4bil a year ago, and gross margin at 48%-50% versus 47.7% in the same period a year ago.

TSMC reported a 13.5% rise in third quarter net profit to NT$101.07bil (US$3.3bil), its strongest growth since the first quarter of 2017, thanks to strong sales to smartphone makers.

The profit figure compared with a NT$96.33bil average forecast drawn from 20 analysts, according to Refinitiv data.

Revenue rose 10.7% to US$9.4bil, compared with the company’s own estimate of US$9.1bil to US$9.2bil.

Sales earned from smartphone makers accounted for 49% of its total revenue, up from 45% from a year ago, while China sales amounted to 20%, up from 15%, making up for modest slowdown in every other major region including North America.

TSMC shares closed down 1% yesterday prior to the earnings announcement. They have risen 28% so far this year, giving it a market value of US$251.3bil, bigger than US rival Intel Corp’s US$232bil.

The Taiwan company’s strong results come after Huawei, the world’s No. 2 smartphone maker, said on Wednesday it has shipped 185 million smartphones in the first nine months of the year.

That implies a 29% surge in Huawei’s third-quarter shipments, as it benefitted from promotions and patriotic purchases in China that more than offset weak international sales on US trade sanctions.

New smartphone launches ahead of the year-end shopping season, as well as rising demand for new technologies such as 5G and artificial intelligence will continue to drive sales for TSMC’s high-performance chips, known as 7nm, analysts said. — Reuters


笑看人生:澳門美食、湘雅醫院、Zaha Hadid



訪濠江長沙 體驗絕佳服務


晚餐又是此程的另一高潮,在Zaha Hadid遺作Morpheus酒店的天頤用膳。先不講食物,單從室內設計來說,是我在全世界所見過的餐廳,最有型的一家(沒有之一)!有不少餐廳比它更豪華,但天頤的設計elegant,簡約中又充滿細節,感覺猶如在一間現代美術館用餐。食物由年輕帥哥Angelo操刀,中式Omakase,每道菜當然充滿創意和擺設精美,但不算fusion,招牌菜香茅煙燻乳鴿最令人回味。Angelo出身於好酒好菜,坦白講,已經青出於藍,恭喜!




名師Zaha Hadid 遺作遍天下

因為受了傷,翌日就無法跟E君去参觀項目,留在酒店,發現窗外坐落湘江邊的文化中心,原來又是Zaha Hadid的遺作!真佩服她去世後仍這麼勤力,簡直令我們在世的人有點汗顏!不是開玩笑,感覺上她死後完成的作品比生前還要多!很期待試用她(最最後?)設計的北京大興機場。


無巧不成話,其實這家湘雅醫院正是Yale-China Association(雅禮協會)在1906年所創辦的。本來我打算多留一天的原因正是約好了Yale-China的總裁David Youtz在長沙見面,打算帶我參觀湘雅醫院,和雅禮中學(Yali High School),排名在全國頭二十名之內。但我告訴David,既然已直接體驗過湘雅醫院的一流服務,比任何導賞團更深入,就毋須再參觀了,所以就另約下周在港見面。


講完一大輪旅遊和美食,彷彿搶了大師姐在友報的飲食專欄,還是講些關於政經的事情吧。一個月前直接聽過美國貿易代表萊特希澤(Robert Lighthizer)講話,明白他堅持"Stay in the lane"的態度,真的非常有用。一如我上周所料,中美在第13輪會談後,接近達成局部"skinny deal"協議,美方暫時停止原定在今月15日上調的關稅。全球股市應聲反彈,特別是本來很弱、很多人都經過太多次狼來了而早已放棄的港股。相信未來談判仍有重重波折,但看來主調已轉往正面發展,所以這些困難和噪音,或將反成為可攀的「憂慮之牆」。
人民幣倘大幅貶值 港幣勢危

細節仍未搞定,更當然必須等待愛出風頭的特朗普親自在智利APEC峰會拍板,但第一階段協議已比預料中「肥」,除中方答應增購400億至500億美元農產品,似乎亦將包括加強IP保護,和一個所謂"currency pact"(匯率協議),但相信絕對不會像當年針對日本的Plaza Accord(廣場協議)那麼誇張,迫使日圓急升一倍。這個pact最多只會要求人民幣軟掛鈎於美元,不再大幅貶值。其實對中國也是好事,我早說過,從來沒有一個國家是靠貶值發達的,如中國要做消費大國,更必須擁有強大和愈來愈國際化的貨幣。如人民幣停止貶值,對港元的壓力也大大減少,再說一次,在現今香港風雨飄搖的情况下,聯繫匯率,縱有百般不是,仍可說是維持香港穩定的最後一根重要支柱,不可輕易放棄。永遠同一句話,外資襲擊,無論是嘍囉如Kyle Bass,還是大鱷如Soros,一概都毫不足懼,但如果壓力來自內地,人民幣繼續大幅貶值,則港幣危矣!

更重要的是也如我所料,達成初步貿易協議,對香港情況亦有明顯幫助。特朗普說香港示威人數已大幅減少,更表示有信心問題將在短期內自然解決。即使美國眾議院終通過了所謂的《香港人權與民主法案》,仍對市場沒甚影響。正如此法案的支持者之一,參議員Rubio所說,即使正式通過變成法例,成效仍主要看白宮的執行意願。最差情況就像有如中國未加入WTO前的情況,每年美國審核會否延續MFN(most-favored-nation treatment,最惠國待遇)地位,每年擔心一次,但都順利過關。

港處中美貿戰風眼 股樓反而難大跌




[譚新強 中環新譚]

Wednesday, October 16, 2019

首期6.5亿建大农场 星狮冀年产2亿公升鲜奶