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Saturday, August 31, 2019

Supermax posts 58.9% jump in Q4 net profit to RM15.06m

Friday, 30 Aug 20191:34 PM MYT

KUALA LUMPUR: Supermax Corp Bhd
image: https://cdn.thestar.com.my/Themes/img/chart.png's net profit for the fourth quarter ended June 30, 2019, was RM15.06mil, a 58.9% jump from the same quarter in 2018 on higher sales revenue.

Group revenue rose 14.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) to RM375.96mil amid a rise in sales contribution from natural rubber and nitrile rubber gloves.

In a statement to the stock exchange, the group said the improved sales revenue was owing to the commissioning of the new replacement lines within the group and a stronger US dollar-ringgit exchange rate.

EBITDA for the quarter rose 0.3% while pre-tax profit slipped 10.7% on the back of an increase in production costs, including raw material costs.

For the full financial year, Supermax's net profit came in at RM123.75mil, 16% higher than previous year's result, while revenue grew 14.2% to RM1.49bil.

According to the statement, the group maintained a net gearing of 0.19x and a cash and cash equivalent positon of RM173.8mil as at June 30.

Moving forward, Block of A of Plant 12 is close to completion while Block B is scheduled for completion in 2020.

Each new block will provide an additional production capacity of 2.2 billion pieces per annum.

"By CY2024, upon the completion of the 3 new plants we have planned, our capacity will increase by approximately 13.2 billion pieces per annum.

"All additional new capacity will only lower our lead-time of 60 days to a more ideal level," said the group.

In the contact lens division, the group continues to work towards obtaining licences and approvals to increase market penetration globally.

Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/08/30/supermax-posts-589-jump-in-q4-net-profit-to-rm1506m#UEI7Y4uBKu2M5Kpw.99

The worst is over for Tabung Haji, says outgoing MD & CEO

CORPORATE NEWS
Friday, 30 Aug 20195:45 PM MYT

KUALA LUMPUR: The worst is over for Lembaga Tabung Haji (TH) as the turnaround plan to stabilise the pilgrimige fund has started to bear fruit.

Outgoing TH managing director (MD) and chief executive officer (CEO) Datuk Seri Zukri Samat said the new management had been able to reduce the risk of a run on the fund and to restore its balance sheet.

He noted that a systemic risk would had happened if the turnaround plan had not taken place.

"The worst is over. Tabung Haji is now moving forward. We have subtracted the bad assets and so on. I told the Prime Minister's Office it is time for me to go. TH's excess over liability stood at more than RM1 billion.

"I have created a reserve account. During good days, you do not distribute all your profits. You keep some in the reserve. TH has no reserve before but now it has about RM400 million," he told Bernama in an interview recently.

Zukri, who was appointed to steer the TH turnaround in July last year, will make an early exit from TH due to health reasons. He will be succeeded by Nik Mohd Hasyudeen Yusoff on Sept 1,2019.

TH is the biggest shareholder of BIMB HOLDINGS BHD
image: https://cdn.thestar.com.my/Themes/img/chart.png with a 53.47 per cent stake.

TH recorded a stronger financial performance in the first half of 2019, underpinned by a sustainable investment strategy and prudent cost management measures.

The pilgrimage recorded RM1.3 billion in revenue due to its sustainable investment strategy and prudent cost management measures.

"I did not expect the situation was that bad. When I moved in, we looked at the so called issue and the whole situation is much worse than we thought. People talked about bad investments in TH Engineering and such. These are the information that the public know.

"But in reality, there is much more to that. What is more shocking is basically the revelation by the PwC report was commissioned by TH when the new leadership came on board, ” he said.

Zukri was referring to a PricewaterhouseCoopers’ (PwC) report which revealed that TH had failed to recognise a total of RM549 million in impairment losses on investments in several associate companies and subsidiaries.

The report came after the 2017 Auditor-General's Report disclosed that the pilgrim fund board had failed to report an asset impairment totalling RM227.81 million from its investment in three subsidiaries and three associates, including a RM164.58 million investment in TH Heavy Engineering Bhd
image: https://cdn.thestar.com.my/Themes/img/chart.png.

"When we see all the reports coming from PwC, the board feels that we got to check on this. When we came in, even though the account for 2017 has been done, it was not yet to be signed off.

"The board feels that we cannot signed off the account emphasis of matter being mentioned by the Auditor-General. For that reason, we appointed PwC to relook at the whole thing again," said Zukri.

The financial distress of TH was further aggravated by the weakening of the stock market in 2018, leading to a bigger deficit of RM10 billion as at Dec 31,2018 from RM4.1 billion a year earlier, as well as the adoption of a new accounting policy in the same year.

"Based on that accounting policy, certain provision has to be made in some of the investments. Because of that we are short by RM10 billion," said Zukri.

In December last year, the fund said that the Finance Ministry via special purpose vehicle (SPV) Urusharta Jamaah Sdn Bhd acquired its underperforming properties and equities in exchange for RM10 billion in sukuk and RM9.9 billion in Islamic redeemable convertible preference shares.

TH transferred RM19.9 billion worth of underperforming assets at the end of last year to the SPV as part of its restructuring plan. The fund has also reduced its exposure in equities by shifting its focus on fixed income to minimise risks.

Under Zukri’s leadership, TH managed to clean up the fund's balance sheet following years of accumulated deficit which have led to illegal dividend payments to its depositors since 2014.

"Our biggest task at the moment is how do we to make sure that we restore the balance sheet of Tabung Haji so that we are in the position to pay, not only for 2018 but also in the future," he said.

TH announced a hibah of 1.25 per cent to its depositors for the 2018 financial year, amounted to a total payout of RM913mil for TH's 9.3 million depositors.

Zukri also rubbished the perceptions that he was pressured to step down.

"There is a lot of perceptions in the market, which we can't stop. Some say that I am a non-performer -- that is why the government possibly takes me out and also there is also perceptions that Tun Daim (Tun Daim Zainuddin, ex-chairman of the Council of Elders) is impatient towards what happened in Tabung Haji.

"I am not trying to be sour grapes but even my achievements in Bank Islam was also being questioned. But you see the bank is going from strength to strength," he pointed out.

Prior to his appointment at TH, Zukri previously served as CEO of BIMB Holdings Bhd and was MD of Bank Islam Malaysia Bhd for over a decade.

Zukri also served as executive director of Khazanah Nasional Bhd and MD of Pengurusan Danaharta Nasional Bhd, a national asset management company set up by the government during the 1997/1998 financial crisis to take over non-performing loans of banks.

Asked how he feels about leaving on Merdeka Day, Zukri said: "This is what I tell my friends, I celebrate double Merdeka this year," he said. - Bernama

Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/08/30/the-worst-is-over-for-tabung-haji-says-outgoing-md--ceo#EYDbDQ0TyO9Sw7YY.99

Panasonic sees better FY20 results

CORPORATE NEWS
Friday, 30 Aug 20193:25 PM MYT

KUALA LUMPUR: PANASONIC MANUFACTURING Malaysia
image: https://cdn.thestar.com.my/Themes/img/chart.png Bhd is expecting better financial year 2020 (FY20) performance despite the current volatile export market and ringgit.

Managing director Toyokatsu Okamoto said the company is sustaining its positive performance in Malaysia and ASEAN operating markets -- Brunei, the Philippines and Vietnam.

"Profitable, we are sustained. We hope for a better FY20," told reporters after its 54th annual general meeting here today.

In the first quarter ended June 30, 2019, Panasonic Malaysia's net profit rose to RM27.09 million from RM25.14 million in the same quarter a year ago.

However, revenue declined to RM291.4 million from RM305.57 million previously, due to lower sales in the export market for home appliances products, mainly in the Middle Eastern markets.

However, he said the downtrend was mitigated by increased demand for fan and home shower products from Malaysia and ASEAN markets.

He said the company is strengthening its footprint in its operating countries by expanding its business-to-business (B2B) segment and e-commerce presence as well as launching more new smart products.

He said Panasonic Malaysia aims to increase the B2B segment’s contribution to revenue to 50 per cent by 2030 from the current 20 per cent by expanding B2B channels.

"We are also moving into e-commerce channel through our business partners locally such as Lazada,” he said, adding Panasonic Manufacturing will be also launching smart sensor products in the second half of 2020.

In FY19, its net profit declined to RM105.75 million from RM131.03 million the previous year.

Revenue was 5.9 per cent lower at RM1.128 billion from RM1.199 billion amid a slowdown in the global economy, the US-China trade war and trade sanctions imposed by the US on certain Middle Eastern countries, which account for a good portion of its sales. - Bernama

Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/08/30/panasonic-sees-better-fy20-results#9jjf6FccQrOhgOCJ.99

Wednesday, August 28, 2019

Panasonic Manufacturing Malaysia Berhad - Dividend Payout Expected to Remain Attractive

INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS

1QFY20 normalised earnings declined by -8.0%yoy due to the lower contribution from the Middle East market
However, this is partially mitigated by the encouraging sales growth from the Asean region
Given the healthy cash level, we expect the group to maintain good dividend payout
Maintain Neutral with a revised target price of RM37.20.

1QFY20 normalised earnings declined by -8.0%yoy. Panasonic Manufacturing Malaysia Bhd (Panasonic)’s 1QFY20 normalised earnings declined by -8.0%yoy to RM25.8m. This is below ours and consensus expectations accounting for 18.0% and 19.6% of full year FY19 earnings forecasts respectively. The declined in earnings was attributable to the reduction in export sales particularly from Middle East market. Notwithstanding, we expect that the earnings momentum will pick up pace in the subsequent quarters driven by: (i) higher sales from Asean region and; (ii) better profit margin.

Lower sales from the Middle East market. In 1QFY20, the home appliance products segments’ profit before tax (PBT) fell by - 20.9%yoy. This was mainly attributable to: (i) slower oversea demand, primarily from the Middle East, (ii) rising cost of raw material and, (iii) unfavourable product sales mix. Note that the oversea market constitutes 60% of total sales. Of this, Middle East, which is the second largest key market for Panasonic recorded a significant dropped in export sales of RM21.9m or -32.7%yoy. The increasing trade sanctions imposed by the United States of America on Iran as well as the overflooding of inventories in the Saudi Arabiia has caused the slowdown in export sales.

Higher sales from the Asean countries. Despite the decline in sales from the Middle East market, the higher sales recorded by ASEAN countries such as Vietnam, Philippines and Brunei has contributed to the growth in Asian market. This region has recorded an encouraging growth of +8.9%yoy to RM88.0m thanks to Panasonic actively effort to penetrate new markets especially in the ASEAN region. In addition, sales from the Malaysian market grew marginally by +0.6%yoy due to the sales of Fan products. The higher domestic sales is attributable to the: (i) promotional activities held for the Hari Raya festive season and; (ii) increased purchases at distributor’s level resuting from a possible price adjustment in the next quarter.

Impact to earnings. We are revising our FY19F and FY20F earnings forecasts downwards by -5.0% and -5.4% respectively to take into account the slower than expected recovery of sales from the Middle East market.

Target price. Our target price is revised to RM37.20 which is based on pegging the FY21 EPS of 265.7 sen per share to PER of 14.0x. The assigned PER multiple is the group’s three year average historical PER.

Maintain NEUTRAL. We are maintaining our NEUTRAL recommendation on the stock as we remain cautious on the expectation of a slowdown in sales from the middle eastern market in the near term. Nonetheless, we expect that the domestic and ASEAN market will sustain earnings into the future. In addition, the relatively weaker Ringgit bodes well for the group as a significant of its revenue transaction in done in the USD. Also, the group is targeting to achieve RM2.0b sales by 2023 via: (i) strengthening manufacturing capabilities through the completion its new buildings; (ii) strengthening design capabilities with the incorporation of new R&D companies; (iii) implement automation in reducing reliance on labour. This is expected to improve sales and profit margins to sustain its earnings growth in the long term. In addition, with cash and cash equilvalent at RM638.0m as at 1QFY20, we believe that the company is able to continue giving out good dividend payout.

Source: MIDF Research - 28 Aug 2019

Sri Ram's opening statement at Najib's 1MDB-Tanore trial

KUALA LUMPUR (Aug 28): The following is appointed prosecutor Datuk Seri Gopal Sri Ram's opening statement at Najib's 1MDB trial, reproduced in full:

1. This case concerns the monies of a company called 1Malaysia Development Berhad, widely known as 1MDB. It was originally called Terengganu Investment Authority or TIA. The accused was instrumental in changing its name to 1MDB. He also caused amendments to be made to the articles of the company to place himself in sole control of important matters concerning the business and affairs of the company. In short, he was its plenipotentiary. Additionally, he was the chairman of the company's board of advisers. He used that position and that of Prime Minister and Minister of Finance to do certain acts and to exert influence over the board of 1MDB to carry out certain abnormal transactions with undue haste. The ultimate aim of the accused was to obtain gratification for himself. He succeeded in achieving that aim.

2. An elaborate charade was employed. It was acted out in four phases in which several characters played a part. But it was the accused who played the pivotal role. His objective was to enrich himself.

3. Although this case concerns four phases, the events in respect of them are to be considered as part of a consecutive story because of the pre-arranged plan by the accused to enrich himself.

4. An important character in the charade is a man called Low Taek Jho or Jho Low. He is a fugitive from justice. He was involved in TIA and later in 1MDB. The prosecution will prove that the accused by his words and conduct made it clear to 1MDB's officers, its board and others that Jho Low was his alter ego. In truth, Jho Low was the accused's mirror image. The prosecution will establish facts which will give rise to an irresistible inference that Jho Low and the accused acted as one at all material times.

5. The four charges under section 23 of the MACC Act are in respect of each of the four phases. In respect of these charges the prosecution will prove, through direct and circumstantial evidence that the accused, first in his capacity as the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, and later as Prime Minister of Malaysia and Minister of Finance took several steps that led to part of 1MDB's funds being channelled into his account through a circuitous route to prevent detection of its source. The accused thereby used his position for gratification. In each of the phases the accused acted as one with Jho Low.

6. The first phase concerns the scenario of a so-called joint venture created by the accused (acting through Jho Low and one Tarik Obaid, a close associate of Jho Low). It was a false scenario of a joint venture between 1MDB and a company called PetroSaudi International Ltd or PSI. It was called Project Aria. In the first phase the scheme worked in the following way.

7. 1MDB borrowed USD1 billion purportedly to invest in a joint venture company called 1MDB Petro Saudi Ltd. The money was to be paid into the account of the joint venture company. Petro Saudi International was to take up 60 percent of the shares in the alleged joint venture by injecting certain assets of dubious value. The USD1 billion was to represent 1MDB's contribution for its 40 percent shareholding. But the so-called Joint Venture Agreement was entered into not with PSI but with a company called Petro Saudi Holdings (Cayman) Ltd. And it was Tarik Obaid who executed the agreement on behalf of PetroSaudi Holdings (Cayman) Ltd. Evidence will be led to show the abnormality of the so-called joint venture which close scrutiny will reveal to be a mere device to siphon 1MDB's money for the accused's benefit.

8. The prosecution will, through oral and documentary evidence, prove that USD700 million of the USD1 billion, instead of being paid into the joint venture company's account was diverted into the account of a company called Good Star Ltd which in truth had nothing whatsoever to do with the joint venture. It was incorporated in the Seychelles on 18 May 2009 that is to say 5 months before the joint venture agreement was entered into. It was a company owned and controlled by Jho Low.

9. The payment to Good Star was made in great haste and without approval from 1MDB's board of directors and in defiance of its directions. Good Star was falsely described as the wholly owned subsidiary of PSI. The payment to Good Star, was vouched for by the accused through Jho Low as monies owed by the joint venture to PetroSaudi International (PSI). The joint venture agreement referred to a loan payable by the joint venture company to PetroSaudi Holdings (Cayman). The prosecution will through documents show that the so-called loan was a sham employed to justify the payment to Good Star.

10. In March 2010, 1MDB entered into a so-called Murabaha financing agreement under the terms of which alleged USD 1 billion equity in the joint venture company was converted into useless Murabaha notes and 1MDB was required to make available to the joint venture company a sum of USD1.5 billion. In September 2010, a sum of USD500 million was sent to the joint venture company. This money has gone missing. Then in May 2011, a further sum of USD 330 million which was supposed to be the second tranche of the investment into the Murabaha financing, was diverted to Good Star. The accused took positive steps to put through this transaction.

11. From the original sum of USD700 million sums of money were disbursed by Good Star to several persons including one Prince Faisal, a close associate of the accused, Jho Low and one Prince Turki. Prince Turki, the accused and Jho Low were so close that they holidayed together on a yacht in the south of France. Prince Faisal received USD12,500,000 from Good Star on 18 February 2011. He received a further sum of USD 12 million from Good Star on 10 June 2011 which came from the Murabaha scam. From these sums he transmitted USD20 million to the accused's personal account in two tranches of USD10 million each. The first tranche was received by the accused on 24 February 2011, that is to say, six days after Faisal received the money. The accused received the second tranche on 14 June 2011, that is to say, four days after Faisal received the money. The USD 20 million amounts to an equivalent of RM60,629,839.43. This forms the subject matter of the first charge.

12. The first phase came to an end in 2012 with 1MDB holding worthless pieces of paper. The scam having been achieved, Good Star was wound up on 2 May 2014 and PetroSaudi International was wound up on 8 April 2015.

13. The second phase concerns the acquisition of assets of dubious value by 1MDB. The accused using his position and acting through his mirror image, Jho Low took positive steps and caused 1MDB to enter into two transactions as a result of which the accused obtained a sum of RM90,899,927.28 as gratification. This forms the subject matter of the second charge.

14. These two transactions concerned the acquisition of two independent power producers namely, Tanjong Energy Holdings Sdn Bhd and Mastika Lagenda Sdn Bhd. Mastika owned 75% shares in Genting Sanyen Sdn Bhd. To make the purchase, 1MDB acted through its subsidiaries 1MDB Energy Holdings Ltd, 1MDB Energy Ltd and 1MDB Energy (Langat) Ltd (all Labuan companies) as well as through Malaysian registered companies, namely, 1MDB Energy Sdn Bhd and 1MDB Energy (Langat). These companies were used to raise finance for both acquisitions.

15. I now take each acquisition separately. A local bridging loan of RM 6.17 billion was raised for the acquisition of Tanjong Energy. An additional sum of USD1.75 billion was raised through the issue of 10 year structured loan notes. Goldman Sachs were appointed as lead arranger for the issuance of these Notes.

16. Of the USD 1.75 billion, USD 786 million went to Tanjong Energy. Of the balance, a sum of USD907 million was paid into the account of 1MDB Energy Ltd with Falcon Bank in Hong Kong. Of this sum approximately USD 577 million in round figures went to Aabar Investments PJS Ltd (BVI). This payment was purportedly as a security deposit for Aabar's holding company IPIC issuing a guarantee guaranteeing the Notes. In addition to the security deposit Aabar was also given an option to take up 49% shares owned by 1MDB Energy Ltd in 1MDB Energy Sdn Bhd. On 22 May 2012 USD 295 million was paid by Aabar to a company called Blackstone Asia. Blackstone is a company controlled by Jho Low through his associate Tan Kim Loong also known as Eric Tan. He is also a fugitive from justice. Additionally, on 25 July 2012 a further sum of USD 133 million was transferred by Aabar to Blackstone. These monies remained with Blackstone until October 2012. Goldman Sachs were paid USD 192.5 million as arranger's fee for this bond issuance.

17. For the Mastika acquisition, the alleged purchase price was RM 2.75 billion. The money for this came from two sources. First, another 10 year structured loan Notes of USD1.75 billion. For this 1MDB paid Goldman Sachs USD 110 million as arrangers' fee. So, 1MDB got a nett sum of USD 1.64 billion. This sum was paid into 1MDB Energy (Langat) Ltd's account with Falcon Bank, Hong Kong. The second was a local loan of RM700 million. The total loan raised from these two sources was about RM 6.16 billion. There was therefore available an excess of RM3 billion. This excess was almost wiped out by a payment on 23 October 2012 to Aabar Investment PJS (BVI) of a sum of approximately USD 790 million in round figures as security deposit for Aabar's holding company IPIC for allegedly guaranteeing the repayment of the notes. As additional security Aabar was given an option to take up 49% shares owned by 1MDB Energy (Langat) Ltd in 1MDB Energy (Langat) Sdn Bhd. For the Mastika acquisition, Genting Power was paid USD 710 million. The loan raised through the Notes for the Mastika purchase came into 1MDB Energy (Langat) Ltd's account on 19 October 2012

18. On 23 October 2012, Aabar paid a sum of approximately USD 291 million in round figures to Cistenique Investment Fund or CIF. On the same day Aabar paid USD 76 million to Enterprise Emerging Markets Fund (EEMF). On 23 October 2012 Aabar paid USD 75 million to Blackstone. This was part of the USD 790 million paid to Aabar. Later, on 5 November 2012 Aabar paid a further sum of USD 96 million to EEMF. Soon after CIF and EEMF received the monies in question they paid it over to Blackstone. These monies were then channelled by Blackstone into the accused's account as follows.

19. On 30 October 2012, a sum of USD 5 million was paid into the accused's account at AmPrivate Bank. Then, on 19 November a sum of USD 25 million was paid into the accused's account. The total sum received by the accused in the second phase is set out in the amended second charge. Evidence will be led to show how financial layering took place to provide a false justification for the movement of the monies. So much for the second phase.

20. The third phase concerns another purported joint venture between 1MDB and Aabar in equal shares. The joint venture company was called ADMIC. This forms the subject matter of the third charge. The purpose of this alleged joint venture was to develop TRX or the Tun Razak Exchange in Kuala Lumpur. IPIC was to guarantee Aabar's investment. The Ministry of Finance of which the accused was Minister guaranteed 1MDB's investment by way of a letter of support. A loan of USD 3 billion was raised for this alleged purpose. Goldman Sachs acted as the arranger of the loan.

21. On 14 March 2013 the accused signed a letter of support to raise a loan through the issue of bonds by 1MDB from the Bank of New York Mellon Group in the sum of USD 3 billion. On 19 March 2013 a sum of USD 2.721 billion was disbursed into the account of 1MBD Global Investment Limited with BSI Bank at Lugano in Switzerland. The balance went to pay the fee of Goldman Sachs.

22. From the USD 2.721 billion, a sum of USD 1,060,606,065 was paid into account of two fiduciary funds, namely, Devonshire Funds Ltd and EEMF. Devonshire received USD 646,464,649 in five tranches over two days, that is to say, on 20 and 21 March 2013. EEMF received USD 414,141,416 in three tranches, also within two days, that is, on 20 and 21 March 2013.

23. On 21 March 2013, Devonshire transferred USD 430 million to Granton Property Holding Ltd which is a company controlled by Eric Tan, Jho Low's shadow. On the same day Granton transferred the whole of that sum to Tanore Finance also a company controlled by Eric Tan. Also, on the same day, that is to say, 21 March 2013, Devonshire transferred a sum of USD 210 million to Tanore Finance Corporation. Then, between 22 March 2013 and 25 March 2013, EEMF transferred USD 250 million to Tanore which therefore by that date had USD 890 million in its hands.

24. Between 21 March 2013 and 10 April 2013 Tanore transferred USD 681 million to the accused's account. In terms of our currency this amounted to RM2,081,476,926. This sum forms the subject matter of the amended third charge.

25. Based on the evidence that the prosecution will adduce, the so-called joint venture never took off. There was no investment and there was no true joint venture. It was all a sham. This concludes the third phase.

26. The fourth phase concerns the purchase of the Aabar options by 1MDB. These are the options that were given to Aabar in 2012 as alleged part consideration for IPIC's guarantee for the notes that raised USD 3.5 billion forming part of the second phase.

27. In May and August 2014, 1MDB through its subsidiary 1MDB Energy Holdings Ltd obtained two loans totalling USD 1.225 billion from Deutsche Bank Singapore. The accused approved this transaction. The loans were secured by guarantees provided by 1MDB Energy and 1MDB Langat. There was a bridging loan of USD 250 million and a facility loan of USD 975 million. The first loan of USD 250 million was made available on 26 May 2014. From this amount a sum of USD 239,939,970 was paid into 1MDB Energy Holdings Ltd's account with Falcon Bank Hong Kong on 28 May 2014. Of this sum, Energy Holdings paid Aabar Investments PJS Ltd BVI USD 175 million to its account in BSI Lugano, Switzerland allegedly to part redeem the option given as additional security that was mentioned earlier when dealing with the second phase.

28. From the sum of USD 175 million a sum of USD 19 million was paid by Aabar to the account of a company called Affinity Equity International Partners Ltd. The payment was made on 18 June 2014. The account was held at DBS Bank Ltd Singapore. Affinity Equity is controlled by Eric Tan. Of the USD 19 million, a sum of USD 1.89 million was transferred to a company called Blackrock Commodities (Global) Ltd at its account held in DBS. Blackrock is a company controlled by Eric Tan. On 23 June 2014, a sum of GBP 750,000 was transferred to the accused's account. This works out to RM 4,093,500.

29. I now turn to the second loan of USD 975 million which was made available on 1 September 2014. Of this sum USD 250 million was utilised to discharge the bridging loan. That left USD 725 million. On 3 September a sum of USD 223,333,000 was transferred to Aabar Investments PJS Ltd (incorporated in Seychelles) at its account with UBS Singapore. Then, on 30 September 2014, USD 457,984,607 was paid to Aabar Investments PJS Ltd (incorporated in Seychelles) at its account with UBS Singapore. Between 16 October 2014 and 17 November 2014 Aabar transferred a sum of USD 226 million to Aabar International Investment PJS Ltd to its account in Barbados. Between 16 October 2014 and 17 November 2014, Aabar Barbados transferred USD 225,500,000 to Vista Equity International Partners Ltd (Barbados), a company owned and controlled by Eric Tan. Between 23 October 2014 and 19 December 2014 Vista Equity through five tranches in sterling currency transferred a sum equivalent to RM 45,837,485.70 to the accused's account. This sum together with the RM 4,093,500 earlier mentioned forms the subject of the fourth charge. It follows that part of the sum alleged to be used to redeem the option ended up in the accused's account. So much for the fourth phase.

30. I now turn to the twenty-one charges for money laundering offences. These are the AMLA charges. The first nine charges relate to receiving of the RM2,081,476,926 which forms the subject matter of the amended third charge. The monies fell into the accused's account ending 9694 with AmIslamic Bank. Between 2 August 2013 and 23 August 2013, the accused transferred a sum of RM2,034,350,000 to Tanore Singapore. Simultaneously, the accused used the balance of RM22,649,000 to pay four entities and one individual. The prosecution's case is that all these payments benefitted the accused.

31. After making these payments, the accused transferred the balance into a new account ending 1880 with AmBank through two transfers amounting RM162,436,711.87. He closed his account ending 9694.

32. The tenth charge and charges sixteen to nineteen relate to the transfers made by the accused to Tanore involving RM2,034,350,000.

33. Charges eleven to fifteen concern the use by the accused of the funds earlier referred to through payments to the four entities and one individual. All these payments were made by cheques signed by the accused.

34. Charges twenty and twenty-one concern the transfer of funds from the 9694 account to the 1880 account.

35. In this latter part of the case, the prosecution will establish the AMLA charges through direct and circumstantial evidence. It will be proved that in all the circumstances of the case, the accused committed the offence of money laundering contrary to Section 4(1)(a) of the Anti-Money Laundering and Anti-Terrorism Financing Act 2001 ("AMLATFA").

36. After the 1MDB scandal broke in early July 2015, the accused with his mirror image Jho Low took steps to cover his tracks. Sham documents were produced to pretend a donation from an Arab Prince. Among these were letters and four cheques each for a sum of USD 25 million purportedly written out by a person said to be the Arab donor. But these cheques were never meant to be encashed and were never encashed.

37. The prosecution will also produce evidence to show that the accused took active steps to evade justice. He interfered with the course of investigation of this case which has come to be known as the 1MDB Scandal. He took active steps to effect a cover up of his criminal acts. The prosecution will rely on all this evidence to show that the accused had the requisite mens rea when the offences with which he is charged were committed.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/sri-rams-opening-statement-najibs-1mdb-trial

[转贴] AI教育风口正当下,谁才是真正的布道者?

智东西(公众号:zhidxcom)
文 | 轩窗

当下,AI技术浪潮正在改变生活的方方面面,从衣食住行到各种体力、脑力工作。据预测,2035年我们将进入“AI”生产力普及的时代。到那时,现在年龄处于5-20岁之间孩子将成为我们社会的中流砥柱。所以AI技术后备力量的培养已经刻不容缓。

近年来,随着人工智能技术的兴起以及人工智能产业的蓬勃发展,基础教育阶段的人工智能教育也被重视起来,并被作为国家的发展战略,写入《新一代人工智能发展规划》之中。政策之下,行业也迎来了风口期,一大批玩家涌入,AI技术公司、机器人公司、玩具公司、培训机构等纷纷杀入。

有人说,当下正是中国人工智能教育发展的最好的时代,但也是充满挑战的时代。软硬件能力、算法以及数据促进了人工智能技术的快速发展,加之国家政策在大力推广人工智能教育,这些都构成了促进人工智能教育发展的有利因素。

然而,到底什么是AI教育,业内尚未有统一定论。对人工智能教育到底参悟了多少,如何深入地和教育本身相集合,是长期困扰玩家们的一个重要问题。
一、国内AI教育产业机遇和乱象

2017年国务院印发《新一代人工智能发展规划》,强调要在中小学阶段设置人工智能相关课程,逐步推广编程教育,建设人工智能学科,培养复合型人才。

随着基础教育阶段人工智能教育被写入国策,AI、编程教育开始逐渐走入课堂。政策与市场的双重驱动下,AI技术公司、机器人公司、玩具公司、培训机构等纷纷杀入这一市场。有机构预计课外教育市场将有9000亿的市场空间,然而更多的人相信教育市场的空间更加广阔。

索尼优必选科大讯飞商汤科技、小米康力优蓝、能力风暴、乐森机器人、乐聚机器人大疆等纷纷推出具有教育属性的软硬件产品。

尽管有如此多的玩家入局,业内也尚未形成统一方案,编程教育、机器人教育也一度被认为是AI教育。然而,AI教育并非会编程、会用积木搭架机器人这么简单。那么,AI教育的本质到底是什么呢?

AI教育作为一种新的教育模式,其身在教育体系之中,最核心最本质是教育,AI只是内容。

到底谁才是AI教育最好的布道者呢?

在传统的教育模式中,学校、教师是教育的核心部分,老师们言传身教无私地将知识传授给学生们。然而,对于新兴的AI教育来说,校内教师不具备对AI技术和硬件的理解,这就将重任传递给了拥有AI技术和硬件能力的企业。

那么,如何将AI技术、硬件能力和AI教育深度结合呢?我们以国内知名AI及人形服务机器人企业优必选科技为例,来看看优必选在AI教育上的思考。
二、深度揭秘优必选科技AI教育打法

在2019世界机器人大会期间,在面积达400平方米的展区,优必选展示了包括大型人形机器人Walker、商用服务机器人Cruzr、消费服务机器人悟空、安防巡检机器人ATRIS、编程机器人Jimu系列等全系机器人产品。优必选还专门开辟了AI教育展区,展示其全套的AI教育解决方案产品。



▲2019世界机器人大会上优必选AI教育解决方案展示区

在现场,优必选AI教育展台也吸引了非常多的小朋友前来体验和探秘。



本月22日,优必选科技正式发布了AI教育解决方案,这套方案包含一整套的内容,优必选也称其为“教材+硬软件+师资+AI实验室建设+竞赛”的完整教育生态。

在发布会上,优必选科技高级副总裁、产品与解决方案部负责人钟永详细分享了优必选在AI教育领域的独特心得,并详细拆解了优必选这一整套AI教育生态策略。



▲优必选科技高级副总裁、产品与解决方案部负责人 钟永

钟永提到,课程设计是AI教育的核心和关键,而课程设计指的不仅仅是教材。很多做硬件产品出身的公司,在刚入局AI教育领域时很容易陷入到由产品反推教学目标的过程。

他认为,做AI教育需要用教育的思维来看,首先明确AI教育的目标,其次制定场景化PBL教学方案,然后是明确产品与解决方案的需求,最终才是产品的开发。

然而,AI教育的产品开发也没有一个统一的大方案可以覆盖。教育市场最难的问题在于差异性,不同年龄层次学生的差异,甚至是每个个体的差异性。

1、AI教育的27个细分场景



▲优必选将AI教育划分为27个细分场景

在年龄层纵向维度上,优必选将从幼儿园到研究生阶段,横跨20岁年龄差的学生划分为9个阶段。

在每个阶段上又以场景为横向维度,分为校内教学(to G)、校外培训(to B)和家庭教育(to C)三大场景。

年龄阶段和场景相互匹配,优必选将其划分为27个细分场景。在每一个细分场景下,优必选围绕“教材+硬软件+师资+AI实验室建设+竞赛”的大思路,形成了一个个细分的、端到端的解决方案。

2、因材施教的三层课程体系

在教材方面,优必选建立了三层课程体系:通识型课程、拓展型课程和探究型课程,根据每种课程内容的设置,匹配不同的硬件产品。这三种不同的课程面向的是不同学习要求的学生。配合着教材,优必选匹配了入校教学和基地教学不同教学模式。



▲优必选AI教育解决方案为不同课程搭配了不同的机器人硬件平台

(1)通识型课程——普及AI知识

通识型课程面向最广泛的学生群体,在策略上主推区域的校内规模化落地。去年优必选联合华东师范大学出版社推出的贯穿从小学到高中的人工智能教育教材——《AI上未来智造者——中小学人工智能精品课程系列丛书》就是面向通识型课程的基础内容。



▲优必选联合华东师范大学出版社推出的AI教育通识型课程教材

(2)拓展型课程——兴趣驱动更高阶学习

拓展型课程则落地在区域中心校,每个中心校会服务区域内的8-10个普通校。在教材方面,钟永对智东西透露,今年将计划推出拓展型课程,面向学习通识型课程后有兴趣的学生群体。



▲深圳华侨中学校的学生们正在聚精会神地听讲

通识型课程和拓展型课程都会在校内上课,课程也将由校内老师主导。不过,这些教师也都经过了优必选的培训。同时,优必选还会派助教在课堂协助校内老师上课。

(3)探究型课程——拔尖人才培养

探究型课程面向的学生全体目标更高,面向那些渴望接受更多AI知识的、接受能力非常强的学生。这一课程将不在校内进行,而是在优必选在区域建立的人工智能教育基地上课。

探究型课程不会设置统一教材,而是类似于做研究生课题研究的长期项目,由优必选的老师根据每个学生的不同情况,比如不同兴趣点等,进行差异化教学。



钟永举了一个例子,比如优必选在上海嘉定区的人工智能教育基地。嘉定区的各个学校定期会派学生到基地来上课,整个嘉定区拥有一百多所中小学校,不同的班级会轮来上课。整个基地运营一年时间以来,课表全部都是满的,今年优必选还在计划将基地面积扩大1000平方米。

此外,钟永还提到,“AI教育强调跟真实场景结合,不能让学生仅仅呆在教室里面去学人工智能,需要走出去。走出去有两种方式,第一种是到固定地方学校,比如去基地进行系统化学习。 第二种就是带学生去一些企业走访,打开他们的视野。”

3、以赛带学,激发学生学习AI的积极性

在学习中主动性和兴趣是非常重要的动力。如何让学生更加具有积极性呢?

在学习过程中,目标感和奖励机制非常重要,尤其是对于在校学习来说。成年人学习的内容可以在工作和日常生活中高频使用并获得积极的反馈。学生离工作环境较远,如何获得学习的成就感,如何检验学习成果成为了关键。

优必选高级副总裁钟永对智东西表示,竞赛是整个AI教育解决方案中非常关键的一部分。优必选的思考是“以赛带学”,通过奖励机制更好地激发学生学习的主动性。同时,竞赛也是检验学习效果的重要部分。



▲优必选Robo Genius全球青少年机器人挑战赛

优必选组建了专门的学校运营团队,负责AI教育方案的课程的研发、交付落地、进校运营等工作。 在优必选AI教育解决方案落地的区域,优必选的运营团队会定期规划各项赛事,基础校、中心校以及区域的人工智能基地都会有相关的活动。



▲优必选联手创客星球推出《铁甲小雄心》节目

此外,优必选科技还与创客星球联合发起青少年机器人成长计划和平台项目RoboGenius,并为学生提供参加国赛、全球比赛的通道。

就在不久前,优必选还与创客星球进行了更深度的合作,联合出品了科技综艺《铁甲雄心》和青少年科技真人秀《铁甲小雄心》节目。优必选首席品牌官谭旻在采访中对智东西表示,双方合作的目的是要让AI教育重要性被更多用户认识到。

4、一体化线上学习平台,打通课下课上全时段

为了让AI教育成为一种习惯,而不是单纯的课堂教学,优必选也在打通课堂上和课堂下的学习障碍,建立一体化的线上平台——AI科创云平台。

这种一体化的设计可以弥补现在课内和课外教育因为教材不一致、硬件不一致带来的断层式体验,可以让学生在课外时间继续获得AI知识。



从优必选建立的“教材+硬软件+师资+AI实验室建设+竞赛”这一整套解决方案体系来看,优必选在AI教育上进行了非常深入的思考,真正从教育的本质去思考如何做AI教育,反推衍生出了这一整套的、面向众多细分场景的解决方案。

5、因地制宜,全球化实践布局

在实际落地方面,现在优必选已经落地国内百余所学校,由于采用的是区域规模化打法,这些学校集中在成都、重庆、昆明等地。钟永告诉智东西,优必选的AI教育解决方案今年将在全国进行拓展。



▲优必选昆明人工智能教育基地

除此之外,优必选还将AI教育带到全球进行实践,包括日本、韩国、美国、印尼等全球40多个国家。在采访中,钟永骄傲地提到:“我们是第一个把人工智能教育带到非洲的中国公司,第一个落地的非洲国家是肯尼亚。”



▲优必选AI教育落地印度尼西亚

面对不同国家的差异性,优必选也摸索出了自己的一套章法。比如在印尼这种对亚洲文化比较认同的地区,可以先把国内的思路带过去,用起来,再结合当地教育专家和市场反馈进行本土化修改。对于美国等教育理念有所差异的市场,优必选会根据当地教育部分要求,重新制定适合当地的教育方案。
三、优必选发力AI教育的初心和优势

到底是什么能够让优必选持续、深入地,在AI教育领域越扎越深呢?

在和钟永深入地交流后,我们发现优必选在AI教育领域有着四大方面的优势,首先是在AI教育深耕四年,对教育本质的深刻理解;其次是在AI和机器人技术上的核心技术优势;第三是思路清晰的针对多细分场景、差异化目标群体的一套解决方案;第四则是开放的态度构建AI教育产业生态。

1、深耕AI教育四年,从教育本质出发

2016年8月优必选以编程机器人Jimu Robot开始进入AI教育市场,推出之后很快获得了业内认可,一个典型例子是产品进驻了全球科技巨头苹果的零售店,而上一家被苹果看上的中国硬件企业是无人机界大牛大疆创新。

进入AI教育市场后,优必选就意识到,做AI教育与做硬件产品不同,不能用做出的硬件产品去反推如何搭配做教育内容。

经历了三年的摸索,优必选已经摆脱了硬件厂商的思维限制,真真正正地扎入到教育行业中。在对教育行业深度摸索和思考后,优必选找到了做AI教育的内核思想——从教育本身出发,反向推产品。

2、基础技术打底,对AI和机器人技术理解深入

优必选之所以能对AI教育内容做得更加得心应手,与其在AI和机器人技术上的深厚基础密不可分,这也是优必选选择做AI教育非常重要的基础优势。

机器人的每一个核心技术优必选都“踩坑”过,从机器人领域的核心技术——伺服舵机,到运动控制算法、计算机视觉、自主导航定位、机器人操作系统等,8年来积累了一系列的核心技术。

在成立的8年时间里,优必选产品已经覆盖了消费级服务机器人、商用服务机器人、安防机器人、教育机器人等多个领域,对于机器人结构中每一个硬件的组成、软件系统都有着非常深入的理解。

在AI技术上,优必选引入欧洲科学院院士、悉尼大学教授陶大程担任“人工智能首席科学家”,在悉尼建立了优必选&悉尼大学人工智能研究院,探索AI技术前沿方向,包括语音识别、自然语言理解、计算机视觉、单/多态情绪识别、SLAM等几大方向。

3、因材施教,多层次、思路清晰的全套解决方案

优必选已经在AI教育上形成了自己独特的思路,从更高更广的维度思考,从每一个细节思考,形成了“教材+硬软件+师资+AI实验室建设+竞赛”这一完善的AI教育生态解决方案。

无论是从课程的设置还是竞赛形式的检验机制和激励模式,都可以看到优必选在推动AI教育价值链条上价值传递最大化。

教育市场不同于卖设备,更重要的是服务,其中运营是非常重要的部分。智东西了解到,在优必选内部负责AI教育业务的团队规模接近500人。

4、建立开放生态,联合行业伙伴共同探索AI教育

现在AI教育仍处于探索阶段,整个市场庞大且复杂。优必选在明确了自己的思路之后,还在联合业内更多的力量一起推进AI教育的发展。

钟永表示,AI教育有着27个细分场景,优必选在这个过程中有所为有所不为的。为了让AI教育体系更加完善,优必选希望联合起AI、机器人以及硬件行业内的伙伴,共同探索AI教育市场。
结语:AI教育关乎国之未来

基础阶段的人工智能教育对人工智能技术以及国家未来的发展至关重要。

短期上看,人工智能教育解决的是如何支撑和助力人工智能产业发展,弥补人才缺口问题的问题。而从长期上看,人工智能教育的关键则是如何人培养当代的孩子适应已经到来的人工智能时代。

在人工智能教育市场发展的初期,整个市场需要在教育和人工智能两个领域都有着深厚经验的玩家来起到带头作用。

从目前来看,优必选作为这一行业的深入入局者,已经找到了AI教育的关键要素,并形成了系统的、全面的打法。更为重要的是,AI教育关乎国之未来,我们需要更多的拥有实力和能力的AI科技企业参与进来,为中国的未来积蓄力量。

http://zhidx.com/p/162326.html

Affin Bank - Strong Results But Unsustainable

Affin’s 2Q19 earnings rose 14% QoQ, beating expectations. The good showing was due to net writebacks for bad loans coupled with positive Jaws. That said, loans contracted and asset quality deteriorated further. All in all, w e raise our FY19 earnings forecast by 12% (to factor in lower net credit cost) but keep our FY20-21 estimates. Although 1H19 results appear strong, we do not think the positive net writebacks seen can be repeatable. Hence, if there is a price rally, we advise investors to sell on strength; Affin is still the least profitable listed bank in Malaysia and the risk-reward profile is balanced by its cheap valuations. Retain HOLD and GGM-TP of RM2.25, based on 0.47x 2020 P/B.

Beat expectations. Affin chalked in 2Q19 earnings of RM156m (+14% QoQ, doubled YoY), lifting 1H19 net profit to RM293m (+37% YoY). This beat estimates (due to net writebacks for bad loans), forming 56-60% of our and consensus full-year forecasts.

Dividend. None declared as Affin only divvy in 3Q.

QoQ. Positive Jaws (from faster total income growth of +3ppt vs opex) and higher net writebacks for impaired loans (tripled) led to bottom-line rising 14%. Also, net interest margin (NIM) nudged up 4bp to 1.65%. However, these were offset by higher effective tax rate (normalizing upwards by 3ppt).

YoY. Net profit doubled, thanks to the RM26m net writebacks for bad loans vs the RM92m allowances made in 2Q18. Otherwise, pre-provision profit was down 1% due to negative Jaws from tepid total revenue growth (+1%).

YTD. Similar to YoY showing, earnings jumped 37% given the net writebacks booked in 1H19. If not for this, pre-provision profit only ticked up 1%.

Other key trends. Loans contracted 0.4% YoY (1Q19: +4.6%) but deposits continued to rise at 12.3% YoY (1Q19: +8.3%). As a result, loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) fell 4ppt sequentially to 80.4%. That said, asset quality deteriorated again with gross impaired loans (GIL) ratio up 18bp QoQ to 3.49% (mainly due to property-related segments and large O&G corporate accounts).

Outlook. We see NIM slippage returning in subsequent quarters given the quick built up of expensive deposits, full 9 months impact from May-19’s OPR cut, and growing price-based competition for loans. Also, net credit cost is expected to normalise up as we reckon the recent positive writebacks seen are not sustainable given its pedestrian asset quality and low loan loss coverage.

Forecast. We raise our FY19 earnings forecast by 12% to factor in lower net credit cost (-16bp) but keep our FY20-21 estimates.

Retain HOLD and GGM-TP of RM2.25, based on 0.47x 2020 P/B with assumptions of 5.5% ROE, 8.4% COE, and 3.0% LTG. This is below its 5-year mean of 0.55x and the sector’s 1.04x. The discounts are justifiable given its lower ROE generation, which is 1ppt and 4ppt under its 5-year and industry average. Although 1H19 results appear strong, we do not think the positive net writebacks seen is repeatable. Hence, if there is a price rally, we would take the opportunity to sell on strength. We reckon balancing the slow growth landscape, mild negative carry created by deposits built up, high IT spending for customer acquisition, along with cost inflation, are not easy feats at all. Affin is still the least profitable listed bank in Malaysia and the risk-reward profile is evened by its inexpensive valuations.

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 28 Aug 2019

TIME DotCom - Solid as a Rock

TdC’s 1H19 core net profit of RM160m (+13% YoY) was in line. The solid results were mainly driven by data and voice, while data centre was flat. Partly due to MFRS16, EBITDA margin in 2Q19 shot up to all-time high of 49% thanks to operational excellence. 1H19 capex amounted to RM65m and it will invest in data centre going forward. Regional associates contributed a total of RM7m to earnings. Reiterate BUY with unchanged SOP-derived TP of RM10.14.

Within expectations. 2Q19 core net profit of RM85m (+14% QoQ, +20% YoY) brings 1H19’s total to RM160m (+13% YoY), with matched expectations accounting for 50% and 51% of HLIB and consensus full year forecasts, respectively. One-off adjustments include provisions for forex and doubtful debts.

Dividend. None (2Q18: none) as it usually declares at the end of FY.

QoQ. Top line grew 6% as all product lines gained, led by data (+7%), followed by voice (+3%) and data centre (+1%). 2Q19 had a one-off non-recurring data contract revenue amounting to RM3m. After one-off adjustment, core net profit increased 14% attributable to operational excellence.

YoY. Turnover grew 16% supported by higher contributions from data (+21%) and voice (+7%), more than sufficient to offset the weakness in data centre (-7%). The decline in data centre was mainly due to one-off non-recurring revenue of RM3m in 2Q18; excluding that, data centre would have grown by 2%. In turn, core PATAMI jumped 20% to RM85m on the back of improved margin.

YTD. Revenue expanded by 15% mainly driven by data’s 18% growth, followed by voice’s 6% gain while data centre was flat. Core net profit improved by a lower rate of 13% no thanks to MFRS16. On the pre-MRFS16, bottom line would have grown at a stronger 18% due to efficiency gain.

Regional associates. CMC (Vietnam) and Symphony (Thailand) were profitable and contributed RM7m to 1H19’s bottom line. Meanwhile, KIRZ (Thailand) broke even and has yet to see any improvement. TdC is working with its associates and partner in Cambodia in network integration to achieve operational synergies and to create a seamless regional telco network across Indochina, Malaysia and Singapore.

CAPEX. 1H19 capex amounted to RM65m vs. earlier guidance of RM320m as submarine cable investment cycle is coming to an end. However, TdC shared that it may invest more in data centre segment going forward.

Forecast. Unchanged as Results Are in Line.

Reiterate BUY with unchanged SOP-derived TP of RM10.14 (see Figure #2). We like TdC as its retail is gaining momentum on the back of reach expansion and undisputable high value products. Also, data centre is expanding resiliently as IT outsourcing, cloud computing and virtualization are widely adopted. GBS is no longer a drag and expected to perform better as demand recovers.

Alliance Bank - Falling Short of Expectations

Author: HLInvest | Publish date: Wed, 28 Aug 2019, 9:01 AM

Alliance’s 1QFY20 core net profit fell 36% QoQ and 44% YoY, coming in below estimates. The primary reason for the poor set of results was due to higher loan loss provision and impairment on financial investments. Also, NIM contracted, loans growth tapered, and asset quality weakened. Hence, we reduce our FY20- 22 bottom-line forecasts by 7-13%. Despite the weak showing, we find that value has emerged (due to recent price drop, now trading at -2SD P/B) and it is one of the few domestic banks that offers >5% cash dividend yield. Maintain BUY with a lower GGM-TP of RM3.70 (from RM4.20), based on 0.92x CY20 P/B.

Missed expectations. Alliance’s 1QFY20 core earnings fell 36% QoQ (-44% YoY) to RM77m, after adjusting for one-off goodwill impairment for its stockbroking business in 4QFY19. This missed estimates, made up only 13% of our and consensus full-year forecasts due to unexpectedly high bad loans provision and impairment on financial investments.

Dividend. None proposed as Alliance only divvy in 2Q and 4Q of its financial year.

QoQ. The 36% decline in core net profit was due to higher loan loss provision (+40%) and impairment on financial investments, amounting to RM49m. Also, total revenue growth was softer, rising only 1% given that net interest margin (NIM) contracted 10bp to 2.40%. However, these were offset by: i) robust non-interest income (NOII, +17%) as investment gains doubled and (ii) the 3% opex drop, helped to fuel positive Jaws.

YoY. Negative Jaws from quicker opex growth (+8%) vs total income (+2%), 50% rise in allowance for bad loans, and RM49m impairment on financial investment, caused core bottom-line to dip by 44%. The jump in opex was owing to higher depreciation and amortisation charges (+2-fold) along with personnel cost (+6%).

Other key trends. Loans growth tapered to 5.5% YoY (4QFY19: +6.0%) but deposits expanded quicker at 8.2% YoY (4QFY19: +5.3%). Sequentially, loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) nudged down 1ppt to 94%. As for asset quality, gross impaired loans (GIL) ratio increased 18bp to 1.3%, no thanks primarily to 3 bad large customer accounts in the manufacturing and wholesale segments.

Outlook. We see NIM to continue to slip in subsequent quarters given the full 9 months impact from May-19’s OPR cut and growing price-based competition for loans. That said, we do not think it would be overly severe considering it is shifting its asset mix to better yielding risk adjusted return loans. Also, we expect its relatively robust lending growth momentum (+5-6%) to chug along since Alliance has an innovative suite of products and services. While for asset quality, despite 1QFY20’s deterioration, we expect some improvement from gradual recoveries and proactive credit management practices.

Forecast. We cut FY20-22 net profit forecasts by 7-13% to reflect the poor set results (from higher incremental net credit cost of 7-10bp and RM49m impairment on financial investment) along with softer NIM assumption (factoring in another -2bp).

Maintain BUY but with a lower GGM-TP of RM3.70 (from RM4.20), following our earnings cut and based on 0.92x CY20 P/B (from 1.05x) with assumptions of 8.9% ROE (from 9.7%), 9.4% COE, and 3.0% LTG. This is below its 5-year mean of 1.17x and the sector’s 1.04x. The discount is fair given its falling ROE trend (1-2ppt lower vs 5-year mean and sector average). Despite the weak showing, we find that value has emerged (due to recent price drop, now trading at -2SD P/B) and it is one of the few domestic banks that offers >5% cash dividend yield.

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 28 Aug 2019

Panasonic Manufacturing Malaysia - Sales to Middle East Stutters Again

Author: HLInvest | Publish date: Wed, 28 Aug 2019, 9:03 AM

1QFY20 core PAT of RM28.0m (QoQ: +27.8%, YoY: -23.4%) was below ours and consensus expectations, accounting for just 22.7% and 20.9% of forecasts, respectively. The shortfall was mainly due to trade sanctions imposed by the US government on certain Middle East regions resulting in significantly lower sales. After factoring in weaker earnings from sales to the Middle East, we lower our FY20/21 earnings by 11.2%/4.2%. After our earnings adjustment, our TP falls from RM34.55 to RM30.70 based on an unchanged PEx of 17 of FY20 EPS of 180.6 sen. We downgrade our call from a Hold to a SELL. Although we are positive on PMM’s planned capacity expansion and net cash position of RM10.50, external headwinds beyond its control such as US trade sanctions on certain countries in the Middle East will continue to hamper near term results.

Below expectations. 1QFY20 core PAT of RM28.0m (QoQ: +27.8%, YoY: -23.4%) was below ours and consensus expectations, accounting for just 22.7% and 20.9% of forecasts, respectively. The shortfall was mainly due to trade sanctions imposed by the US government on certain Middle East regions which materially impacted sales.

Dividend. None Declared (1QFY19: None).

QoQ: Seasonally stronger sales (+29.1%) was due to both home appliances (+23.7%) and fan products (+33.1%). Better home appliance sales was attributed to increased export sales to other ASEAN countries while better fan product sales were due to Hari Raya festive period promotions. Note that 4Q is typically a seasonally weak quarter. Core PAT rose 27.8% in tandem with better sales.

YoY: Decline in home appliance sales (-15.9%) was mainly due to poorer sales to the Middle East, despite better home appliance sales to Vietnam, Philippines and Brunei. Weaker sales to the Middle East were due to trade sanctions imposed by the US government on certain countries in addition to liquidity issues faced by a major distributor in the region. Better fan product sales (+4.8%) were due to increased purchases at the distributor level pending a possible price adjustment in the following quarter. Core PAT declined 23.4% due to losses incurred by associate company (40% stake) which is involved in the sales of Panasonic branded products.

Prospects: Continued difficulties selling to the Middle East region is expected to impact PMM’s profitability. Furthermore, with distributors buying fan products before price increase in the coming quarter, we expect lower sales from the fan products division in the coming quarter. Operationally, PMM has announced the expansion of a new wing, expected to increase production capacity by 18%. PMM intends to use the space to reduce their reliance on external part makers by increasing their capacity of making appliance parts in house.

Forecast. After factoring in weaker earnings from sales to the Middle East, we lower our FY20/21 earnings by 11.2%/4.2%.

Downgrade to SELL, TP: RM30.70. After our earnings adjustment, our TP falls from RM34.55 to RM30.70 based on an unchanged 17x PE of FY20 EPS of 180.6 sen. We downgrade our call from a Hold to a SELL. Although we are positive on PMM’s planned capacity expansion and net cash position of RM10.50, external headwinds beyond its control such as US trade sanctions on certain countries in the Middle East will continue to hamper near term results.

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 28 Aug 2019

Tuesday, August 27, 2019

Andrea Unger - Patterns in trading

Hi guys, hi from Andrea Unger.

Patterns in trading.

Who follows my material knows that I seldom use indicators in my trading systems and who follows me more in-depth, also knows that I base most of my buildings in trading systems on patterns, chart patterns but the way I use them is not the conventional way.
The “Unger way” to use Patterns in Trading

I mean, I use patterns, but I start from a basic model without patterns, and on this basic model, which would be a trend following model, a counter-trend model or even a bias model, on this model I then insert filters from a library proprietary a library of patterns, to understand how the market reacts to different situations.

My patterns try to identify the situation in the market and, based on the response of the system on my patterns’ application, I try to understand the dynamics of the market and then I use patterns to filter the trades from the basic model.

This is the Unger way use patterns, but when we talk about patterns, immediately what comes into our mind, is the classical patterns from technical analysis or from price action and these patterns are the setup, the base, the start of a trade.

If there is the pattern then I take the trade if the pattern is broken from a breakout or something, that’s this work.

The evidence is in numbers and what I do is that I test different situations. 

A sample test of pattern in trading

I remember, you might know I am a member of SIAT, the Italian Society of Technical Analysis, part of IFTA, I was a standard member, now I am an honorary member, I had been part previously in the scientific committee of SIAT and having been asked to, I wrote an article about engulfing bullish, this well-known technique, candlestick technical analysis pattern.

I run a number of tests with software simply to define that there was no way, in my opinion, to make this pattern work.

So my response was that this pattern doesn’t work as it is supposed to do from literature.

It was a disaster, people got angry saying: “You cannot say this… the pattern needs to be contextualized, it needs to be understood in what situation it has to work and so on and bla bla bla bla bla”.

I tried to place the pattern in specific situation with some filters, trend filters and a number of situation, but in the end I did not find a unique way to say: “Yes this pattern works if…” no I’m not able to make this pattern work and this pattern is reported as one of the most successful and strong in the candlestick theory, but my tests did not show any evidence of the strength of this pattern.

What I said is: “I believe that people from the society of technical analysis who became mad at me saying that I had to understand the pattern, were people working with candlestick patterns, making a living of candlestick patterns” so finding Andrea Unger writing “This pattern doesn’t work” was outrageous, but what I answered is that probably, these people with their putting the pattern in the right place, contextualizing the pattern and so on, in the end, did use their feeling, their particular feeling of the market.

So it’s something that is not algorithmic, but it’s something very human and they were able to find a way to make that pattern work, because they had that something that gave them the right answer or the right reading of the pattern, but the standard student reading a book or going through a course about candlesticks, probably had not the same feeling and normally started his way to ruin because that pattern, that specific one as many others, simply didn’t work the way it was supposed to do.

I’m not here to say: “Patterns of technical analysis don’t work only algo trading the way I do is the way to go”, no don’t claim this, it’s the truth but… (just kidding) but I test things. 

My project about Patterns in Trading

So I started a path of tests a long time ago and now I try to put everything together and I will do that in this magazine about automated trading from myself I mean (and this is me) and in different chapters I will go through a number of well-known patterns with classical entries, exits and different ways to use the patterns to see what works in front of evidence of numbers, because the right way to go is to test things.

If the test is positive you can use it, if the test is negative you have to understand why it is negative, maybe there is a reason, maybe once you found the reason you’ll find a way to make it work, or if it simply doesn’t work and there is no reason to have it working, you abandon it. 

My conclusion

I did that and I can anticipate that one of the patterns that surprisingly showed the cleanest results with classical pattern/entry at breakout of the pattern/stop-loss at the opposite part of the pattern/ take profit 3 times the stop, so a very very basic situation, is the outside bar.

The outside bar is a bar that normally, in my Andrea Unger trading style, normally blocks you from trend following entries, because such a large range bar, because an outside bar is obviously a large range bar, being larger than the previous bar, normally inhibits the trend because you have had “decision” and now you have a period of “choppy” markets and therefore you don’t enter for a breakout for a trend.

In this case, looking for a trend for this pattern was a surprise for me to see that there is a situation where this pattern produces profits.

So I mean, it’s interesting and I’m very happy, I run this test because I found interesting results that I can use in my trading, that you can use in your trading if you read this articles and if you follow what we do.

I put this here, there will be many chapters because there are many patterns, the classical patterns, the outside, the inside, the engulfing, the pin bars and hammer, hanging man, whatever.

I mean, all these very well-known technical analysis patterns, I’ll try to put them together into systems to see if and how they work.

That’s it guys, if you have experience with patterns please comment here below, it will be interesting to share and I will keep you updated and posted about new outcomes in this research.

In the meantime ciao from Andrea Unger, see you next time ciao.

Discover Your Next Trading Step w/ this Test >>

What do you think about this post? Don’t forget to share your thoughts in the comments below!

Monday, August 26, 2019

In a world of negative yields, Singapore still pays interest

CORPORATE NEWS
Monday, 26 Aug 2019

Singapore isn’t immune to the underlying trends in global bonds and the sale has to overcome the challenge of a yield curve that’s near the flattest on record.

TOKYO: Singapore is offering a rare opportunity to buy positive-yielding quality bonds in a world that’s rapidly turning negative.

The city state, which pays the highest returns among economies that have AAA credit ratings from all three major agencies, will sell reopened July 2029 government debt worth S$2.9bil (US$2.1bil) on Wednesday, the second-largest amount on record for 10-year tenors.

Singapore isn’t immune to the underlying trends in global bonds and the sale has to overcome the challenge of a yield curve that’s near the flattest on record.

The yield premium that investors receive by holding 10-year notes instead of two-year securities briefly evaporated this month, dropping to minus 1.14 basis point on Aug. 15. That’s the lowest in data going back to 1998 for this spread, which has managed to claw its way back into positive territory.

Size also matters, as Germany discovered last week, when it failed to meet a €2bil (US$2.2bil) target last week for the world’s first 30-year debt with a zero percent coupon.

But if Australia is any guide, the Singapore auction should see solid demand given the combination of the country’s top rating and high yields.

A flatter curve hasn’t dented investor appetite in AAA-rated Australia, which recently drew a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.69 for May 2030 notes. That was up from 2.67 at the previous offering even as the spread between three- and 10-year yields narrowed to the least since 2011.

Singapore’s July 2029 debt that’s been sold in the past yielded 1.83% in the secondary market on Aug 22. That compares with 1.64% for 10-year US Treasury notes.

This is the last sale of 10-year notes on the city state’s schedule to date, with the remaining two auctions on the calendar for two- and seven-year debt. An optional “mini” auction is planned in September but the tenors haven’t been announced.

“A lot of investors will be trying to ‘catch the tail’, ” said Eugene Leow, a fixed-income strategist at DBS Bank Ltd. in Singapore, referring to the chase for the highest yields possible.

“Within the AAA space, I believe 10-year Singapore government securities offer one of the most attractive yields.” he said ahead of a gathering of global central bankers at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. — Bloomberg

Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/08/26/in-a-world-of-negative-yields-singapore-still-pays-interest#7c7HXFDXIBMsceOV.99

Germans upset with negative rates

BANKING
Monday, 26 Aug 2019



Finance Minister Olaf Scholz (pic) says he’ll look into whether it’s possible to prevent German banks from charging most retail-banking clients for deposits, after such a measure was proposed by the leader of Bavaria. Lenders have rejected the idea, saying bans don’t ultimately help clients and could even destabilise financial markets.

FRANKFURT: Most Germans live by the credo that saving is a virtue, but the European Central Bank’s (ECB) negative interest rates risk making a mockery of the national obsession, prompting politicians to seek ways to insulate thrifty citizens and keep the burden on the country’s beleaguered banks.

Finance Minister Olaf Scholz (pic) says he’ll look into whether it’s possible to prevent German banks from charging most retail-banking clients for deposits, after such a measure was proposed by the leader of Bavaria. Lenders have rejected the idea, saying bans don’t ultimately help clients and could even destabilise financial markets.

Germany’s overcrowded banking industry has long contended with sub-par profitability, but after five years of negative rates, lenders are running out of ways to offset the hit to earnings.

With the country gearing up for regional elections next month, the ECB is an easy target for a country known for its risk-averse attitude to money and its habit of hording savings in checking accounts. At €2.35 trillion (US$2.6 trillion), no other country in the eurozone has a larger pile of retail deposits.

Germany’s citizens also save far more of their disposable income than most other Europeans. The country’s savings rate was around 10% in 2017, almost twice the eurozone average, according to Deutsche Bank AG. On average, Germans held more than 40% of their financial assets in the form of bank deposits in 2018.

Negative rates, which mean deposits decline over time rather than increase, “would be bad for all savers, ” said Juergen Dengel, a 40-year-old civil servant from Bonn. If negative rates were introduced at his bank, he would consider withdrawing his money and using it to build a home -- even if that meant going into debt.

“This is a total political football, ” said Klaus Fleischer, a professor specialising in finance at the Munich University of Applied Sciences. “People love to hear someone standing up for them when their savings melt away.”

Not everyone’s in favour of outlawing deposit charges, though. “A ban on negative rates might be attractive for savers, but then we have to also think of how we’d support unprofitable but systemically-relevant banks, ” said Ingrid Arndt-Brauer, a lawmaker for the Social Democratic Party, Angela Merkel’s junior coalition partner.

The ECB itself is considering ways to relieve the burden of negative rates on banks.

Negative rates are a double whammy for lenders. Euro-area banks pay more than 7 billion euros a year to deposit funds overnight with their central bank, while at the same time their income from lending is eroded.

That has helped push the share prices of many European lenders to record lows and has left Germany’s Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank AG reeling from falling revenue and shrinking profitability.

Banks across Europe already pass on negative rates to corporate clients and aren’t ruling out doing the same to retail customers. In Germany, the issue has exploded onto the front pages of the country’s largest tabloid, with Bavarian Premier Markus Soeder even calling for a ban on deposits of up to €100,000.

“These suggestions show how far the undesired side effects of the ECB’s negative rates stretch, ” Germany’s banking lobby said in a statement, referring to the central bank’s deposit rate of minus 0.4%. Still, banks cannot ignore the market as a whole when setting their conditions –- even when rates fall below zero, the group said.

Some German retail banks already charge customers for holding as little as €100,000 in deposit accounts, though they have have yet to extend the policy to the bulk of their customers.

Fabian Rodenbach, a 40-year-old teacher from Cologne, already shops around for the best rates. “For years now, I have also been putting my money into savings accounts in other European countries, ” he said.

Mittelbrandenburgische Sparkasse said it spent €3.65mil last year to park funds at the central bank and other lenders. At the same time, the company collected only €840,0000 from corporate customers and municipalities by charging a negative interest rate of 0.4% on deposits of more than €2.5mil.

Any step to limit banks’ options to deal with negative rates would mark an escalation in tensions between the ECB and parts of the German political establishment, which have long criticized the central bank’s loose monetary policy. I

n 2016, then-Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, who currently presides over the Bundestag, pinned some blame for the rise of the populist Alternative for Germany party on the ECB.

It’s far from clear whether the ban that Soeder suggested would be possible to implement, said Fleischer, the professor in Munich. Scholz said the legality of such a measure would be among the first things his ministry will examine. — Bloomberg

Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/08/26/germans-upset-with-negative-rates#Ox9qYxyWsrfRufia.99

Sunday, August 25, 2019

[转贴] 10個低成本創業案例告訴你沒錢該如何創業!

現在,越來越多的年輕人選擇走上了創業這條路,但是,對於很多年輕人來說,資金不足,是其創業首先便要面對的的第一個大問題,於是乎,很多年輕人都在思考一個問題,如何能夠盡量在少投資甚至0投資的基礎上進行創業。

別急,下面小編搜羅出來10個經典的創業案例,希望對想要創業的你有所啟發。

1、借開店人的貨,為自己賺錢。



朋友開了一個鴨脖子店,但是沒有開1個月,因為沒有可觀的人流量,於是以失敗而告終,手頭的錢也不多了。

有一天他突然想到,他在開鴨脖店的時候,在批發市場進貨,認識了幾個同樣也是開鴨脖店的老闆,一交談才知道,大家生意都不好做。他在想,能不能找這些老闆進貨,賣到網吧裡面去呢,開始的時候少進點,有了熟人的關係,可以先賣貨後付款。

風險也不大,關鍵是不需要自己親自製作,自己跑跑腿就行了。大家都是熟人,賣完了貨再付錢,這些鴨脖店的老闆,也很樂意多了這麼一個業務員。

于是,他买了一辆二手电动车,上各大网吧去卖鸭脖,鸭腿,鸭肠等等,卖出去多少,再给老板分一部分利润。那种大点的网吧,每个网吧卖出去20个鸭腿,就能挣40元,给老板分10元,还剩30元。一天跑10家网吧,也能赚300百元。要是在勤奋点,就能多赚更多了。

再举个例子,在一个南方的小镇发生的故事。当然了,他们的小镇比较大,可能相当于内地的县城面积那么大,这个小镇有一个卖包子的人,天天骑着电动车,到处走到处卖,老远都能听到他的喇叭的声音“馒头,包子,山东馒头。。。”,他的包子个头小,但是味道特别好,价格也比较贵,3元一个包子,他至少能赚2元,一天到晚至少也得赚500以上。最后一问才知道,他自己是不起早做包子的,他也是从老板那里拿的货。

总结:

开店的人开的店是死的,不能移动,都是等顾客上门,我们为何不能成为他们的腿,让他们的产品到达应该到达的地方?以后走在大街上逛街的时候,看到你比较感兴趣的店,你都想想能不能让他们的产品加上你的腿,到达各个消费者聚集的地方。

2、利用餐饮业的空档赚钱。



大家都知道一般的中餐馆是不做早餐的,一人就看中这一餐饮行业的空档,去跟一家中餐馆老板合作,让老板把这间店面出租给他,并且每天付出一定的租金,从每天早上五点租到每天上午九点半,这样跟老板谈妥了。

第二步,这人就去找一些愿意供应早餐的老板,让他们每天早上五点准时供应豆浆,包子之类,由于这家中餐馆面积挺大,座位多,他在店里低价销售各类早餐,尽可能满足更多的顾客的需求,顾客量大起来了,各项成本就低了。

做好这一家之后,他就让自己的家人来照顾这家店的生意,又另外找了一家老板合作,干的是同样的事情。

就这样一家一家地干下去,目前已经承包了五家餐馆的早餐销售。

总结:

很多资源都是浪费的,利用这些浪费了的资源,就是一条财路。网吧的空位置是浪费,酒店的空房间是浪费,客车上的空座位是浪费,服务员的空闲时间是浪费。。。。等等,只要你去找,并且把这些浪费了的资源利用起来,形成一套可以不断盈利的商业模式,你就可以轻松赚钱。

3、不花一分钱,复制别人的项目赚钱。



有一个河南的小伙,在一家超市门口看见别人搭了个简易台子在卖集团手机充值卡,这种卡就是买100元送100元的,打电话很便宜,不过这种充值卡充的钱,只能打电话,不能发短信。但是也非常吸引消费者。

引起很多人围观,十分钟就卖出去5张了。小伙子看这人卖得这么快,便趁人家不忙的时候,过去打听打听。因为这个商场还有另外一个出口,如果这个卡很赚钱的话,可以在另外的一个出口搭个台子再卖。打听之后得知,买卡的人也是从老板那里批发的,每卖出一张卡可以赚8元,人流量大的时候,1个小时能卖30张,1个小时就能赚240元。

每天这个商场人流量大的时间也就这么几个小时。交完场地租金,每天还能赚1000多元。当然了,这个生意成本比较大,进货的时候一次进了1000张。这位河南的小伙就跟他商量,让他第二天多带一个台子过来,再多带一些卡,他在超市的另外一个出口帮他卖,每张只需提成5元第二天这小伙就在超市的另外一个出口,卖了五个小时,总共卖出去100来张,就轻轻松松赚了500元。

总结:

这个生意的本质在于,看见别人卖什么卖得好,果断地加入,但是最好不要自己进货,不要自己搭台子,借用别人的货,借用别人的台子,以最小的成本,来借用别人的资源为自己赚钱。最关键的是,在这个过程中,别人还会告诉你一些宝贵的经验!以后当你走在大街小巷,看见别人卖什么卖得好的时候,不管是人家卖首饰项链,还是卖鞋垫皮带,或者是卖什么狗皮膏药,你都主动过去看看,看看能不能让老板为你垫点货,你帮他卖,然后给他分点钱,既然人家卖得好,就一定有卖得好的道理,大胆地借他的货,在你们合作的时候,也是在帮他赚钱,他一定会将卖这个货的经验告诉你,这样,你不光卖货赚钱了,还学到了他的经验,这是借鸡生蛋最直接的办法。

4、一手对接技术,一手对接客户,赚两头。



喜欢穿西服穿衬衫。有没有发现干保险的也喜欢穿西服穿衬衫。可是你不会做衣服啊,怎么办?你可以去找一家会做西装的裁缝店,跟老板谈好价格。

然後,你去房產中介那裡跟店長談談​​西服定做的事宜。再然後,你到那些保險公司談談西服定做事宜。定做完西裝之後,是不是應該再來一雙皮鞋,定做完皮鞋之後,要不要再來一支上等的鞋油。。。。。

不需要你投入多少本錢,投入點名片錢而已。

5、不花一分錢成本狂賣土豆,一天就轉1萬多元。



有一個人高中畢業就出去打工,覺得打工沒意思,於是就琢磨干點什麼。一次他去菜市場買菜他找到了靈感。他發現土豆的價格居然2元一斤,而且炒出來吃的時候口感也不是很好。

在他老家,每斤還賣不到3毛錢,而且老家種的土豆都是用來餵豬的,人都不怎麼吃的,偶爾炒土豆絲吃,那種味道比城裡賣的土豆味道好多了。於是他就想了想,要是把自己老家農戶種的土豆弄出來賣到城裡,就算每斤能掙1元,也很不錯了。

於是,他先讓家裡給他郵寄了1袋土豆,找到幾家菜市場的老闆,讓這些老闆拿幾個回家炒菜吃,這些老闆一吃覺得味道比較好,主要是澱粉比較多,吃起來沒有那種“沙沙”的感覺,於是就跟這位小伙簽了進貨合同。

然後這小伙回家雇了輛車收購了一車土豆,由於都是當地人,相互認識,都答應先賣出去等回來再結款。於是,裝車之後直奔這個城市,一家一家送土豆,一天時間,就把這一車土豆賣出去了。刨去路費,就這一天,掙了10000多元。

總結:

當你老家有什麼特產,或者不是什麼特產,是普通的商品,只要價格低,而城市裡面價格高的話,都可以採用這個方法,先談好買家,再去準備貨,是個非常不錯的選擇。

6、整合資源賺錢。



在旅遊淡季,有很多環境很好的酒店生意都很差,那麼你就可以找到酒店,跟老闆談合作,你可以幫助老闆帶來很多吃飯和住宿的客戶,只需免-費提供會議場地。

然後找保險公司,因為很多保險公司總在搞培訓會議,或者戶外集訓之類的活動,而且他們也需要長期租賃培訓場所,你可以將從酒店拿來的會議場所,以比很低的價格賣給培訓公司,當然前提是培訓公司必須是2天或者3天以上的培訓,人數必須是80——100人以上!不僅能為保險公司省錢(只要培訓就要吃飯,如果是幾天的培訓可能要住宿),而且能幫助酒店帶來客源!

如果你覺得這個不能理解,那我就舉個最簡單的例子!每個城市都有很多餐館,那麼是不是每個餐館都有買菜的需求?是不是基本上是各買各家的菜?而餐館需要的什麼?無非就是要便宜嘛?

你可以找到各個餐館的老闆,將他們要買的菜集中統一採購,大家都知道,買菜這樣的物品,肯定是量越大價格越低,那你是否能夠花較低的價格買到相同品質的菜。接完餐館的訂單之後,你就可以去找菜市場的批發商,就可以以較低的價格拿到貨,然後將貨送到各​​個餐館。你只賺取一個差價,你沒有任何風險!而且是需要多少訂多少貨,餐館能以較低的價格買到需要的菜,批發商也能出大量的貨,你也能從中賺差價!

7、蛋糕店生意紅火的秘密。



我們先考慮下蛋糕是需要過生日才需要訂購,如果不過生日,是不是很少人去訂購蛋糕。那麼,你首先要考慮的是如何知道客戶的生日。那麼買蛋糕的是什麼人?肯定是壽星的朋友或者親人,對吧?那麼我們如何獲取客戶的生日信息呢?

第一種,你可以以打折的方式告訴客戶,來購買你其他的小點心,然後,讓他們填寫自己的出生年月日以及電話姓名,告訴他們填寫的好處,這個地方一定要想很好的理由讓他們填寫,因為他們認為填寫對他們有好處才會填,所以,他們填寫的一定是很真實的,不會以假亂真。

然後告訴他們如果你能填寫你家人、同事、朋友等一至兩個人的生日,電話聯繫方式,我們就贈你半斤點心或一斤都可以,(主要自己設計,控製成本)這樣,你通過打折的宣傳,吸引了很多的人來購買你們店裡的任意一款產品,只要來一個人,你一般就能收到三個客戶的名單,算著他的家屬親戚。這樣假如一天來30客人,你也許就能抓到100個客戶名單,這些人你都知道他們的電話,生日和姓名。

如果一天按50個潛在客戶來算,一個月下來你將會抓到1500個名單,每天都會有人過生日,以發短息或打電話的方式來進行促銷蛋糕,送貨上門,貨到付款。

由於你是本店的老客戶,給你打八折(先把價格提高點,再降價)這樣一直循環,用小點心作為前期抓潛。來一個客戶,抓三個客戶。後期來促銷蛋糕,這樣你會有永不斷續的客戶,凡是來買蛋糕的人,你都可以留下他們的聯繫方式,後面進行促銷。生意一定火爆。

你還可以做學生的市場,學生喜歡過生日,找到學校的老師或聯繫人,通過一種方法把所有的學生的聯繫方式拿到手,學校一定有,包括住址電話、生日都有。這樣你的市場更大,因為每個學生現在都喜歡過生日,所以你不用擔心沒有客戶。

最後你不需要自己做蛋糕你找十個員工專門送蛋糕。找幾家做蛋糕做的比較好的,跟他們談判,說我每天都要訂購很多的蛋糕,你給我一個最優.惠的價格,這樣你什麼也不用乾了,只進行對這些客戶進行促銷就可以了。到最後你可以做成一個蛋糕配送中心,只要這些人想過生日,問他想定什麼樣的蛋糕,哪家蛋糕,你都能做到,只管聯繫這些業務,專人配送。

8、通過對接共同需求賺錢。



王先生開了一家體控理療店。起初由於人們對新生事物的不了解,生怕上當受騙,所以生意一直很冷清。體控理療是什麼?其實很多人都是第一次聽說。體控理療就是一種集保健、美容、治療於一體的新型理療方法,效果非常的不錯。為了盡快拓展市場,王先生開展了許多促銷方法。如:散發名片、開展免費體驗、價格優惠等方法,但收效甚微。

有一天,王先生突然想起了不久前的一件事。一個朋友給他一張“合理膳食”的科普宣傳圖。上面圖文並茂的寫有“40種不能搭配同吃的食物”、“不同疾病徵候人群食物”等知識。隨著生活水平不斷提高,人們的健康意識越來越強,而“合理膳食”又是人人用得上,家家必備之物。

於是,為了便於保存、攜帶和查閱,王先生將這張宣傳圖改編成了五開的小冊子。小冊子設計得非常漂亮,封面上方是三口之家的人物圖片,下方印著“合理膳食,均衡營養”八個醒目大字;封底上印成居家服務常備電話,如:清潔公司、搬家公司、電腦維修公司、理療服務等。

當客戶將有價值的資料保存下來後,就有了為對方服務的機會,那自然就能賺到錢!

9、雞蛋煮一煮也能年賺千萬。



一台灣的朋友,從台灣回來。他給我分享了一個他朋友做的營銷的案例。他說他朋友在前年,欠了2000萬台幣,傾家蕩產了。去年上半年,把錢還上去了。就很奇怪,這傢伙在幹什麼,這麼快就賺了錢。

後來一打聽,說這傢伙在賣雞蛋。想一下更奇怪了,雞蛋半年能賺2000萬,怎麼賣雞蛋的?台灣就這麼大,2400萬人口,天天給你塞一個也不行啊。後來知道他在一個溫泉,旅遊景點賣雞蛋。

他們就開了一個車,叫了幾個朋友一起去看一下。暗訪一下怎麼賣雞蛋半年賺2000萬的。跑到那裡一看,那裡有一個大的招牌“溫泉蛋”三個字。號稱用當地最好的溫泉煮出來的,非常好吃,有保健功效,包裝得很漂亮。很長的隊,排隊去買。

快排到的時候嚇了一跳,他發現他前面的人每個人不是買200個就是買300個,甚至買400、500個都有。這是煮熟的雞蛋啊,這麼賣怎麼得了?我們四五個人跑過來,就算一個人吃五個,五個人也才吃25個。跑進去一看才知道,那些人付了錢在那裡留名單、留地址、留聯繫電話。交了錢就拍拍屁股走了,沒人拿著雞蛋走。

真正拿雞蛋走的沒幾個,買得少的才自己提著。後來排到他了,一吃才發現這雞蛋真好吃。沒吃過這麼好吃的雞蛋。雞蛋中間的溏心還沒有硬,然後味道那個香味已經進入到雞蛋中心區裡面去了。

用什麼煮的不曉得,確實非常好吃。賣多少錢?一個相當於人民幣2塊錢。我們都知道雞蛋在大陸來講,5毛錢的成本。賣2塊錢是不是很賺?然後他回來就講,怎麼可以賣這麼多呢?很簡單,定位不一樣。他的定位很簡單,當地是旅遊景點,每天有好幾千人去他那裡旅遊,他把它定位成禮品。就是模擬腦白金的方法,變成禮品。去那邊旅遊的人,都需要幹嘛?買禮品回去,對不對?

買禮品有幾個障礙點?第一個,太貴了,承受不了。太便宜了,送不出手。所以溫泉蛋是唯一台灣特色。很便宜。2塊錢一個,一盒20個才40塊錢。這個送出去既不降低檔次,又這麼差異化,所以很容易送給自己的親朋好友。送禮品還有一個方法。你去外面旅遊,你會提幾十盒東西回來送禮嗎?所以說他幫你消除了這個問題。他直接找一個快遞公司幫你寄。

你回到家裡,蛋也到家裡了。到你朋友的家裡,以你的名義,有一個標準的送雞蛋的信。你出去旅遊,40塊錢買一份非常超值的禮物,送給你朋友,這個有沒有障礙?一切都滿足需求。所以那些旅遊團每天都有人去那裡簽字。所有記得的朋友都會寄,為什麼?因為太便宜了。

10、利用網店規則。開不進貨的網店,狂買狂賣,不需打包,不需填單。



比如你在京東看到一件商品比淘寶上同樣商品的價格低一些,那麼你就把這件商品的圖片和說明復製到你自己的淘寶店鋪上,你淘寶上的買家到你的淘寶店鋪上買了之後,你馬上到京東去購買這件商品,收貨地址寫向你買東西的人的收貨地址。向你買東西的人就能收到京東發過去的商品了。不過你要編一個好的理由來告訴買家,以免買家給你差評。

總結:

有沒有發現幹房產中介的都對價格敏感一點,不管是在現實生活中還是在網上,往往賺的就是那一點點差價積累出來的。

但是,低投入的創業,就意味著要比別人付出更多的努力,才有可能成功。而且,還要耐得住起步階段的那段最痛苦的日子。創業不像是過家家,看著也許很簡單,個中滋味,只有親身經歷過的人才有深刻的體會。

創業有風險,投資需謹慎!

https://elitesinsider.com/?p=4536

[转贴] 90%的人,都对失败有误解

人们天生就是很难接受自己这个人是失败的, 比如我们减肥失败了,会安慰自己努力过就好;比赛失败了,会跟自己说,贵在坚持。

正是因为我们把事情的失败归为了自己的失败,才需要给失败找角度来安慰自己,但其实我们没必要难过。

NBA球星布拉德利比尔在知乎上,这样回答关于失败的话题:

“传球失误、投篮失准、防守失位或者错过进攻时机,这些都意味着“失败”。

我知道自己的赛场表现从不是十全十美。但我认为这些“失败”更像一种经验,下次再遇到这样的情况,就会更快做出反应了。反思“失败”是迅速提升自己的一种很好的路径。”

失败对你的影响,取决于你对它的看法。

成功的人不是从不失败,而是不会因为某件事情失败了,就开始否定自己。

所以失败对于他们来说不是一次打击,反倒是为成功积攒的经验。

只有平庸的人,才会为某件事失败来惩罚自己。

拒绝承认事情的失败,会让我们产生回避的心态,无法好好反思总结,这样会导致踩过的坑吃过的亏变得毫无意义。

既然把事情的失败归为人的失败,是阻碍我们成功的重要原因,那为什么我们之前很难把它们分清楚呢?

其实是因为这种思维在作祟。

心理学家卡罗尔德韦克在其著作《终身成长》中写道,人有两种思维方式,成长型和固定型。

有成长型思维的人,相信人是可以通过努力提升自我的。他们失败时更关注的,是怎么努力才能有进步,所以这类人不会把事情的失败当成是人的失败。

而有固定型思维的人,习惯给自己设限,会认为一件事情失败了就很难再成功,于是便把“失败”这个行为变成了一种身份,即“我是一个失败者”。

别低估“固定型思维”对我们的影响,当我们把事情的失败等于自己的失败时,是真的很难坦然接受别人的建议的。

摆脱固定型思维没那么容易,但看完这篇文章,也许你就能迈出最重要的一步:觉察。

每个人或多或少都有固定型思维,当你觉察到自己会为失败而自我否定,会对旁人的建议特别抵触时,你就能开始摆脱固定型思维这个心魔了。

我们这一生,都会面临很多挑战,失败是在所难免的,重要的是你如何看待失败。

希望你能坚信,你不是一个失败者,你只是还需要一些时间才能成功。

Friday, August 23, 2019

瑞士银行家的箴言/黄云浩

2019年8月22日

不久前,笔者提到了新加坡的经济奇迹。这也让笔者想到了地球另一端的瑞士。这个面积与台湾相近的欧洲小国,经济实力的强大着实让人佩服。

因为地型面积限制,天然资源相对匮乏的前提下,瑞士的经济发展基本上由服务业与制造业撑起。说到瑞士领先世界的领域,自然就让人想起了其钟表业、旅游业,还有巧克力制造业。

除了以上行业,让瑞士闻名于世的还有金融业,包括了瑞银(UBS) 和瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)两大金融巨头。这几个行业在世界都是佼佼者。

其实,瑞士让笔者印象最深的是还是发生在2016年瑞士所举行的全民公投。

知不知道该公投的议程是什么?公投的议程就是希望能让瑞士公民即使不需要做工,每一年都有一定的基本收入。



这好比前朝政府推出的BRIM援助计划,只是更加的大方。

不必多想,这样的派糖果议程,放眼四海,没有理由不被通过。公投结果竟然让人大跌眼镜,超过四分之三的公民投了反对票。为什么?

又有多少大马人知道,瑞士通用的语言有四种之多?法文、意大利文、德文与罗曼什文。前三者还被官方认定拥有同等的地位。真的是打脸大马,这个号称多元种族,多元文化的国家。

瑞士人民拒政府金援

这种高素质的人民,拥有理性的头脑,明白世上没有不劳而获的事,也明白羊毛出在羊身上的道理,毅然拒绝了伸手要饭,饭来张口的文化。

这里头有着什么东西,可以让身为第三世界国家的马来西亚借鉴学习的呢?尤其是它的金融业?

或许,我们可以从一本由瑞士银行家儿子撰写的书来了解多一下。这本书的作者是位移民美国的瑞士人后裔。他写这本书的灵感,来自于瑞士银行纽约分行就职经理的父亲。

这本2011买的书,开章明义就说明了造就瑞士过去几百年成功的因素,就是瑞士人是世界上最聪明的投资者兼投机者与赌徒。也指出了下注就是要赢的硬道理。

他例出了财富险中求的概念並不适合人性,皆因大多数人都想赢但却不敢赌。敢赌的却忘了风险的管理。

作者用了十二个大方向,来解剖与诠释了人性与思想上的先天的本质,每一个本质都是強弱点兼具。

这十二个大方向,包括了就风险、希望、贪念、预测、模式、流动性、直觉、信仰、共识、固执、乐观与悲观,以及计划所提出的风险和回酬的规则。

投资先鉴定出路

这本书在某些方面,冲击着笔者对于某些投资的概念,也对笔者在投资道路上所犯的错误一针见血。在这里分享几则。

如流动性,对此笔者特别有印象,就是说不管在任何时候,投资还是投机,都必须要保有流动性,凡事留有一手。千万不要让自己为了某一投资或投机扎根扎得太深太厚而不能切割。

如果有更具吸引力的机会出现,应该毫不犹豫地放弃现有的冒险。

对于直觉,如果直觉可以被解释(因为过往的所看,所听与经历),那么直觉就可以被信任。

作者对乐观的诠释更加入木三分,他说乐观不只蒙蔽了判断,更可怕的是乐观会带人走上不归路。千万不能只是因为乐观就采取行动。

作者续说,当我们准备下注时,必须问自己一个问题,我可以如何自救,如果这投资或投机出了状况?

如果办法已经想出来了,那么恭喜你,因为你已得到一个比乐观更好的东西,那就是自信。

最后就是关于计划。对于未来,计划是行不通的。作者強调正确的应对是对机会采取行动,要了解到能够自由进岀,流动性的珍贵。

作者也道岀一个另外一个人性的弱点,那就是长期计划会让人产生一种危险的想法,那就是未来是可以被控制的。

在风险中的规则上,作者认为每一次下注都必须要在份量上有意义。学习接受投资或投机损失是人生的必经,要有破斧沉舟的决心去面对在获取巨大盈利之前所可能遭遇的严重损失。

终于明白为何瑞士可以如此强大,原来对于人性可以有这么深刻的了解並加以运用。

说了这么多竟然忘了提到这本书的书名。这本书的名字《苏黎世公理》(The Zurich Axioms)。

欢迎有志修身、齐家、治国并贡献大马的读者们,买一本来细细嚼味。

譚新強:香港人如何面對2047問題

文章日期:2019年8月23日


【明報專訊】近日香港社運終有點偃旗息鼓的迹象,整個社會都非常疲倦,真的需要休息了!林鄭犯下彌天大錯,但明顯因中央仍未批准辭職而被迫做下去。她開始嘗試派糖,建立所謂對話平台,在十月的施政報告中,必有更多紓緩民生問題的措施。如能改善民生,尤其房屋(需時甚長),當然是好事,但抱歉,對解決今次社運的核心政治問題,幫助甚微。

香港是個19世紀,兩次鴉片戰爭,歷史遺留下來的畸胎,亦正因如此,香港才這麼獨特、迷人,和具有價值。但既然DNA是畸形的,怎可能成長為一個完全「正常」的社會(當然沒有絕對定義) ?

上周已敍述過1980年代初的故事,香港開始擔心九七問題,出現移民潮,社會和金融市場漸趨不穩定,港元兌美元滙率由5.6跌至9.6,後來推出聯繫滙率,才穩定下來。政制方面,更需等到鄧小平先生推出「一國兩制」,得到50年不變的承諾,香港人才放心,更開始大量投資到內地,建設祖國。所以我認為「一國兩制」,其實是為九七前,而並非九七後所設計的。回歸後第二天,即碰到亞洲金融風暴,衰足6年,到SARS後才開始復蘇,即使不是「一國兩制」的錯,但最少可說「腳頭」非常差。
兩個權宜之計 深種不穩禍根

上周也提過聯繫滙率和「一國兩制」,這兩個權宜之計,雖有效穩定上世紀80年代香港人的信心,但亦留下一大堆嚴重的後遺症,亦是現在香港再趨不穩定的禍根:

(1) 聯繫滙率有助穩定投資者信心,非常適合香港的開放式經濟,更對中國吸收外資非常有幫助。但由於過去35年,大部分時間中國的增長率和通脹都遠高於美國,而香港經濟跟內地的經濟愈來愈密切,本需要較高息口來壓抑通脹和更重要的地產泡沫,但在聯繫滙率機制下,貨幣政策早已「外判」給了美聯儲,息口從上世紀80年代初的15厘以上,跌至GFC(環球金融危機)後的零利率,再加3輪QE。結果就是全球最昂貴的樓價,和最不合人道的人均生活面積。

(2) 「一國兩制」的2047時限問題。自回歸後,香港已不再是英國羞恥地搶來的所謂borrowed place,但竟然奇怪地竟仍活在非常有限的borrowed time。即使當年英國租新界,年期都有99年,但「一國兩制」竟然只有50年,即僅現在香港人均壽命的60%左右,對現在才十來歲的年青人來看,怎可以不擔心?過短的時限設計,是個極奇怪和嚴重的漏洞,即使深圳作為一個經濟特區,都沒有限期,為何已變回中國永遠屬土的香港,仍需再次面對此「租約期滿」問題?

(3) 《基本法》奇怪地也似乎故意留下多處憲法上的重要空白,包括23條,和更重要,如何達到普選的方法?為何當年不索性訂下一套完善的選舉法,或最少說清楚一條路線圖和時間表?在任何地方,從來修憲都是一件極困難的事情。美國無法修憲控制槍械,就是個好例子。理論上,設計雙普選並非修憲,仍留在一國兩制和基本法框架內,但實際上只是完成廿多年前,仍未完成的立憲工作。
貨幣貶值戰 聯匯將成犧牲

解釋完憲制問題的歷史根由,再探討一下未來吧。

我對聯繫滙率的觀點,大家都應該清楚。知道它的壞處,在適當時間可以檢討,但在危急時刻,絕不可碰。聯繫滙率,簡直是穩定香港的最重要支柱之一,尤其在連法治都已嚴重受損的今天。

我從來不擔心Kyle Bass之類的三流外國勢力來衝擊聯繫滙率,即使索羅斯(一流)也不怕。我最怕的是人民幣的半主動/半被動貶值,如真的只是一次性微調還好,但如不幸成為長期政策,真的以貶值來打愈來愈全球化的貨幣戰,我就非常擔心聯繫滙率將成為這場戰役的犧牲品。這不會是一個單純的經濟決定,必將是綜合經濟、外交和內政考慮的複雜決定,包括為何繼續支持美元為國際儲備貨幣,和內地人對香港的看法。

如果你認同現在香港的情况有點類似上世紀80年代初,面對九七問題,人心惶惶,動盪要等到出了「一國兩制」計劃才可平復下來。那麼是否現在的社會動盪,即使短期稍為平息,但除非2047的期限問題,得到明確解答,長期不安仍無法解除,社會動盪的頻率和幅度,必將隨着時間而加密和加劇?

大家可能有點猶豫,現在距離2047年仍尚有28年,比上世紀80年代初相對1997的時間點為早,是否太早杞人憂天?今次危機的導火線當然是反修例,因元朗事件而變為反警察暴力。但歸根究柢,最重要訴求就是真普選,亦認為有了真普選,才能保障其他權利。

但試想一下,如未能解決2047年這個期限問題,即使在3年後的下一屆特首選舉前,爭取到某形式的普選,有多大意義?還記得1997年前,英治年代最後一屆立法局選舉?彭定康取消功能組別,全部議席變為直選,遭中方指摘為故意搞局,結果「直通車」通不了,回歸後,馬上解散立法會,需要重新再舉行選舉,連功能組別制度都起死回生,一直沿用至今。我仍然主張先重啟普選立法會的討論,因為明年已到選舉,亦應較少爭議性,但或需要修改831框架。

所以即使能夠落實任何形式的普選制度,但如沒有能夠成功穿越2047年的擔保,結果也是徒然。如得到的只是短暫限於2047年前的普選制度,之後徹底取消一國兩制,更必令人失望和不滿。

所以這個看似仍有點遙遠的2047問題,最好能在不久將來內得到解決。如未能做到,恐怕社會動盪,不會完全平息,甚至愈來愈差。
3條出路 港獨危險難行
香港大概有3條政制出路,但機會並非均等。

(1) 不忌諱,少數極端分子其實是在追求「港獨」,成功機會絕對是零,亦當然極度危險。撇開民族大義,連食物和水源等實際問題都不講,只用兩段英治年代歷史來證明此舉的危險和不可行性。

1941年10月,在太平洋戰爭爆發前夕,英國首相邱吉爾,雖很早在內閣會議上已承認軍事上,香港是無法抵禦日本侵略,但仍殘忍地增派兩營加拿大兵來港,近2000人。結果到了12月8日,即偷襲珍珠港的翌日,日軍果然從深圳發動攻勢南下,不到兩日已佔領新界九龍,但港島仍堅守至聖誕節才投降。聽過不少長輩講這場慘烈港島防衛戰的故事,缺食水和糧食,更遭不停炮轟。英勇的加拿大軍死傷慘重,近300名戰死,其後再有200多名死在集中營,他們都葬在赤柱軍人墳場。

第二個例證是1980年代初的中英談判,英方從未認真考慮過保留從《南京條約》得來應為永久割讓的香港島,和經《北京條約》得到的界限街以南九龍半島,因為他們知道香港仍是個無法防禦的地方。從1949年起,新中國早已否定清廷簽下的所有不平等條約,但實際上仍尊重英國在香港的管治權。結果是等到了1997年新界租約期滿時,就收回整個香港。

有少數人更妙想天開,希望美國插手香港。但可以告訴大家,表面上不少美國政客針對中國,但私底下,我接觸過的美國高官和政客當中,不少都和中國有不錯關係,甚至金錢來往。

隨便舉兩個例子,昨天說美國應跟香港人站在一起,對抗北京的參議院共和黨大多數領袖Mitch McConnell,他是靠老婆運輸部長趙小蘭發達的,大量選舉經費亦來自老婆外家。早前,《紐約時報》曾作深入調查報道,披露趙小蘭爸爸,船運大亨趙錫成的大部分資金來自中國的銀行,業務亦以中國為主,他更是某前領導人的同窗兼好友。 美國前副總統Joe Biden,他兒子的私募基金,從2013年至今已接受了超過15億美元的中國資金。

我更求神拜佛,特朗普千萬不可插手香港。兩星期前,他在接見巴基斯坦總理Imran Khan時,隨口說他願意充當巴基斯坦跟印度在Kashmir(克什米爾)邊境問題上的調停人。印度總理Modi認為此舉為干預內政,即時取消整個Kashmir實行了70年的一國兩制(Article 370),拘留所有政府高官,執行軍事戒嚴。同樣,如特朗普干預香港事務,只會令到情况更差,主權遠比貿易重要。

(2) 有些人希望大致上不變形,不走樣,港人治港,高度自治的「一國兩制」可獲得續約,因為2047年的時限實在太短。當年鄧小平也口頭上答應過如有需要,可給予更多時間,但可惜沒有寫下來。在現今情况,我認為以同樣條件來「續約」的可能性不太大,且機會肯定因近月事件而降低不少。

首先既然香港已回歸22年,竟仍可活在borrowed time之下已相當奇怪,為何中央會讓這歷史遺留下來的畸形情况再延續下去。有朋友妙想天開,問有沒有可能,香港人以交稅來交換「續約」?中央絕不缺錢,根本不可能動之以財。且看丹麥,也絕不會考慮特朗普神經的Greenland(格陵蘭)收購建議!

除非香港能證明繼續實行「一國兩制」,對祖國和香港,都是個無可替代的雙贏局面。要不然,為何會答應?但這是個雞蛋和雞的問題,如2047的期限問題沒法解決,香港就很難平靜下來,而愈動盪的香港,就愈對誰都沒有價值。

當年香港前途談判上,英國出賣了香港人,既不賦予居英權,談判團中亦沒有香港人(彭定康不算),但最少是一次對等,兩個主權國的談判。但如現在香港真的想跟中央談2047年的問題,由誰來充當香港代表呢?特首和主要官員都是由中央委任的。正如我上周指出,香港沒有共產黨支部,整個體制內,香港都沒有代表,更遑論中央最高層,與上海在每屆常委都必有代表的情况,截然不同。香港最多只有一些政協和人大代表,主要功能都只是諮詢。

(3) 除非中央另作闡述,法理上,到2047年7月1日,《基本法》到期,將變為一國一制。當然大灣區發展,除幫助發展區內經濟外,似乎也有為此作出準備的意思。硬件上問題不大,高鐵和港珠澳大橋都通車了。本來的4+9,近日的深圳先行示範區等計劃都已出台,作好幾手準備。也歡迎港人搬到大灣區,未來應可享受到與內地人一樣的待遇。
移民潮再現 北京將鼓勵新移民

在這次重大社運後,亦必有大量香港人選擇移民,近日美、加和澳洲等地移民政策已收緊,所以連馬來西亞、台灣、葡萄牙和希臘都變為熱門點。估計中央反將加速鼓勵內地人移居香港,彌補人口的流失。

簡單研究一下香港的人口國籍結構。約150萬為大陸出生的新移民,外傭約有40萬(沒有居留權,不公平)。其他行業的外國人約20萬(住滿7年有永久居留,投票和參選權)。再加上估計約有100萬香港人擁有美、加、澳、英等其他國藉。即剩下來土生土長,沒有其他國籍的香港人,約430萬,佔740萬人口不到60%。到2047年,這比例可能將跌至40%或更低。

一國一制的最大問題是到了2047年,誰都不知道到時中國的一制是怎樣的一回事。會否大概和現在一樣,比現在更開放,還是比現在更收緊?

其實完全一國一制也不容易,我相信仍需要一些例外。簡單如交通,香港開車是右軚的,與內地相反。普通法下的公司法、合同法和破產法等,也與內地法律非常不同(內地仍未有個人破產法,可能快出台),要完全改變也不容易。 但這些都是在一國大前提下的小例外,不能算一國兩制。

從前偶然會去寧波旅港同鄉會食飯(臭豆腐超好味),但一直覺得它的名字很有意思。相信這個會的創辦人,初頭因戰亂而逃到香港,本以為小住三兩年,就可以回到家鄉。但想不到一眨眼,已「旅港」七十載。

香港是個華洋混集的國際大都會,生於大時代的動盪,成長於難民潮的血淚史, 孕育無數商界傳奇故事。大家都推崇備至的香港精神,其實也包含一點「旅港」的過客心態,未必是壞事。

中環資產投資行政總裁
[譚新強 中環新譚]

湯文亮:特朗普買菜要攞蔥

文章日期:2019年8月23日

【明報專訊】美國總統特朗普及副總統彭斯分別表示,中國如果想中美達成貿易協議,必須恪守各項承諾,包括《中英聯合聲明》。我有多少不明白,講明是中美貿易戰,點解又要遵守《中英聯合聲明》。這個聲明已經27歲,一直相安無事,中國亦一直恪守聲明,奉行一個兩制,美國亦從來沒有為此發聲。

今次美國除了正副總統之外,不少高級官員亦從不同渠道、不同層面指摘中國,目的是令到中美貿易戰有一個有利美國的結果,大家不用大驚小怪,這亦是人之常情,但我最奇怪的就是美國拿香港做人質,雖然沒有效用,但身為香港人亦感覺到與有榮焉。
貿易戰已近尾聲 旨在多要着數

有老友問美國點解要咁低莊,搵香港做人質,對老友這個問題我有不同看法,我認為中美貿易戰已經來到尾聲,美國知道中國退無可退,除非不顧一切,否則,中美貿易協議將會隨時簽訂,而中美亦滿意這份協議,不過,以特朗普商人性格,在簽訂前攞多些少着數是很正常。

其實,我話特朗普有商人性格是抬舉,一般師奶亦有這種性格,她們在買菜時講好價錢,菜販秤好之後,就會要求送兩棵蔥,一般菜販是不會拒絕。所以香港人不用太開心,在特朗普眼中,香港並不是人質,只不過是兩棵蔥,他一定可以攞到,將這兩棵蔥送給英國做禮物,免費之餘又很大體。殊不知習主席今次企硬,搞到特朗普唔知道點樣落台,唯有叫加拿大和澳洲等幫拖。

其實,中國對香港及澳門一向奉行一國兩制,高度自治,連備受爭議的《逃犯條例》亦壽終正寢,那些國家都唔知道幫什麼,唯有各自發表一些講完等如冇講嘅文獻,求求其其應付了特朗普便算了。

雖然我話中美貿易戰已經到了尾聲,但大家唔好忘記,在曙光出現前是最黑暗的,香港人還要捱一段長時間才可以復元,不過在復元之後,就會有一段時間很平靜,但如果香港本土情况不受控制,最後要以《基本法》第14條或者第18條解決,香港的曙光可能永遠不會出現。

紀惠集團行政總裁
[湯文亮 敢說反話]

Thursday, August 22, 2019

买今天上市的FBMKLCI-C7L,再抛空期货FKLI做对冲。。。

Author: i3gambler | Publish date: Tue, 20 Aug 2019, 9:14 PM

今天第一天上市的交易量蛮多的,其中11445做在0.060,其余136做在0.035,共11581。

1)看下图,我猜发行商是输入Dividend Yield=3.50%,Interest=3.50%,以及Volatility=10.00%,所以合理价是45.3 / 700 = 0.065。



2)看下图,我是输入Dividend Yield=2.77%,Interest=7.69%,以及Volatility=7.00%,所以合理价是55.5 / 700 = 0.079。



3)讨论:

3.1)为什么我猜发行商输入Dividend Yield=3.50%,而我自己却输入2.77%呢?其实综合指数的Dividend Yield的确是一年3.52%,可是从现在到明年二月底的Dividend是比较少的,算起来Dividend Yield只是2.77%。

3.2)为什么我猜发行商输入Interest=3.50%,而我自己却输入7.69%呢?在计算合理价的原理,发明这套计算方法的专家是把它应用在很稳的投资,既然很稳,那回酬就应该很低,而最低就当然是Risk Free Interest,在马来西亚的现况是约3.50%咯。可是我不认同这个看法,我看综合指数不是稳重到只能期待3.50%的投资,如果我们跟人家说投资大蓝筹股(综合指数)只能期待3.50%的回酬,肯定笑死人。那么我只好在这个论坛里找各个证卷行给综合指数的30个指数股的目标价,这些目标价都是指12个月的目标,而且是不计股息,我从中扣50%,加回股息3.52%,就得到7.69%。

3.3)为什么我猜发行商输入Volatility=10.00%,而我自己却输入7.00%呢?综合指数在过去150天里,Volatility都是在7点多%徘徊,我不想放高过7.00%。而发行商一般的做法是把Volatility mark-up,作为它们的盈利,这个发行商是很合理的,不会mark-up得很离谱,其他得发行商就很离谱咯,我根本就不可能从它们发行的凭单中找到便宜货!

3.4)既然算到合理价是0.079,而市价才0.060,我当然买,而且买蛮多的。不过我不想冒险,所以马上适量抛空期货FKLI做对冲,大起我会赚,大跌我也会赚,横摆就白忙一场咯。可是看看美国的那个神经老总统,再看本地的政治乱象,我猜横摆的几率不大吧。

3.5)买卖自负,赚到不必谢我,亏钱也不要骂我!

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/gambler/220545.jsp

要强大必须“变态”/麦传球

2019年8月21日

在开始阅读整篇文章之前,请不要误解我。我并不是说你需要成为一个心理或生理变态的人,才能成为一个强大的人。

我指的是随着时间的推移,企业如果要变得强大或至少不会过时,它们必须要改变状态。

我经常旅行,因为读万卷书不如行万里路。

几天前再出国,第一次觉得整体的经济不如以前那么好,因为我在机场大楼外面看不到长长的车队,也没有在登记和移民柜台看到很多旅客在排队。

笔者忽然想到,对于经历业务放缓和盈利增长的公司和个人,现在最好做什么?

面对经济衰退时,大多数人都会采取降低成本和减少开支的措施,这是非常合乎逻辑的。

想当然尔,当一个企业或个人面临经济衰退的挑战时,他们当然应该减少开支,以便可以储蓄更多的资金,以抵御未来的财务挑战。

是的,开源节流似乎是正确的事情,但这只是普通人的心态和思维。在商业和个人发展方面成功的人,却会有不同的见解和策略。

开源节流是理财的基本原则之一。开源是指开拓收入来源,而节流是指尽可能减少不必要的支出。

上述策略总体上是好的,但问题是,如果矫枉过正或在某些情况下,可能会适得其反,并影响未来的增长和前景。

所以,开源节流必须取决于具体情况。

我们应该怎样去开源和节流?是否只是寻找另一个收入来源并尽可能减少开支?

笔者认为,当经济放缓时,基本的开源和节流就不大有效了。

当经济放缓时,你认为会有很多的机会创造新的收入来源吗?或者你认为当你的收入越来越低时,你可以节省多余的金钱吗?

如果你对这两个问题的回答都是“不” 的话,那么让我建议你考虑替代的解决方案。

因为当经济放缓时,节流是不利于长期增长的。为什么呢?

这是因为未来收获取决于目前的播种。如果你现在停止投资,当然就没有了未来的增长可能,因为未来的产能没有变化。

所以,对笔者来说,更有效的做法是提升自己而不是仅仅依靠节流。

如果你在经济放缓时提升自己,当经济复苏时,你将准备好迎接增长的机会,因为在经济放缓期间,许多较弱的企业将被迫退出了。因此,经济复苏后,竞争对手的数量将会减少了。开源节流必须取决于具体情况。

低谷时沉潜蓄势

那提升什么呢?

以企业来讲,当然是提升能更加成功的方面,包括提升他们的人员技能或公司的技术。而且,当经济较弱时,成本或课程费用也相应的会降低。

对于个人而言,我们应该投资在学习新的知识上。

也许我们可以进修MBA或任何可以改善我们竞争能力的课程。

然后,当经济复苏时,因为我们已经做好了准备,可以有更强大的条件来迎接增长的机会了。

如果你在经济放缓时什么也不做,那么你将浪费一个很好的时机来为将来的机会做好准备。

因此,节流只是面对经济弱化的一种非常被动的方式,以更便宜的成本和更多的空闲时间,来提升自己或公司到更强的水平,才是一个更好的战略。

当然,很多人都认为应该在经济状况良好时才提升自己或公司,但经济良好时什么都会比较昂贵,你也将没有太多时间来提升你的技能和业务技术。

最终,当经济复苏时,你可能会错失很多新商机。

并非所有的企业都能应对经济危机并生存下来。

及时转型

因此,那些能够生存的人,将在商业中获得更大的份额,但如果你没有做好准备,你只能在危机后继续保持自己的份额,因为你没有更高的生产能力或技术。

为了获得更好的绩效或仅仅为了生存,企业或个人是需要及时转型。

这不是什么新事物,因为转型在自然界中是一个自然的过程。

定时检讨保竞争力

其中一个最恰当的例子,就是蛇类成长时期的转变。

但我们并不把它称为转型,而把它称为蛇的“蜕皮”过程(metamorphosis)。

蛇的表皮层,随着成长或由于皮肤损伤时,会开始生新细胞,并促使旧的细胞蜕去。

在一生当中,蛇多次重复蜕皮的过程,而蜕皮是令生物变得更巨大的方法之一。

蛇类蜕皮的主要目的是为了成长,但同时亦能去除身上的寄生物。

你看到蛇和企业之间的相似之处吗?当企业想要做得更强大时,他们需要经历转型,进一步改善业务模式,并且摆脱过时或效率低下的业务运营,才能以更快和更好的效率向前发展。

当然,蛇必须等待自然到期日才能经历蜕皮,但企业的最低要求是每月不断地审查和评估自己的公司业绩,以便为了准备自己进行必要的小改变甚至是大转变。

别一方面,为什么某些人从不担心被裁员或他们甚至希望在经济衰退期间被裁减,以便他们可以获得大笔赔偿金?因为他们早已准备好开始新工作或其他继续赚钱的计划了。

适者生存

而身为一名投资者,如果你拥有的股票不能及时“变态”的话,从长远来看,你将无法从它们身上赚钱,因为它们迟早会在竞争激烈的市场中消失。

听说有一家报纸运营商在市场运营80年后可能会停止运营。请问,你投资组合中的公司,在市场上有多少年了?你认为他们能够在竞争激烈的商业世界中生存80年吗?

适者生存不仅仅是一句成语。现在,你认为你的投资心态也必须“变态“吗?

Matrix Concepts expects strong growth to coninue

PROPERTY
Thursday, 22 Aug 2019
By SARBAN SINGH

Matrix Concepts chairman Datuk Mohamad Haslah Mohamad Amin (centre) looking through the group annual report before its annual general meeting yesterday. Also present were group executive deputy chairman Datuk Lee Tian Hock (left) and group managing director Ho Kong Soon. - The Star

SEREMBAN: Riding on its record performance in financial year 2019 (FY19), which was achieved amidst a challenging environment, MATRIX CONCEPTS HOLDINGS BHD
image: https://cdn.thestar.com.my/Themes/img/chart.png has embarked on several projects as it aims to maintain the strong momentum for the current financial year 2020 (FY20).

Group chairman Datuk Mohamad Haslah Mohamad Amin said the property developer has lined up new launches worth RM1.4bil, comprising mainly landed property, for the FY20.

Besides this, it is also venturing into the construction sector in Indonesia and will be launching its second project in Melbourne, Australia.

“We did very well despite a difficult and very challenging market the past year and this has reinforced our track record of consistent growth since listing and delivering greater returns to our shareholders.

“In light of strong demand, we are confident that our expansionary streak would continue in the current financial year ending March 31,2020, ” he said at the company’s 22nd AGM held at the d’Tempat Country Club in Bandar Seri Sendayan here.

Mohamad Haslah, who expects the market to be equally challenging over the next six months, said based on forecast result for the first quarter of FY20, the group should be able to sustain growth for the said period.

He attributed the group’s strong performance in FY19 to the launch mix of mainly affordable to mid-end offerings in its two townships Negri Sembilan and Johor.

In FY19, Matrix Concept’s new property sales had risen to a record RM1.3bil from RM1.2bil a year ago.

Group net profit for the year also improved to RM218.4mil from RM213.3mil in FY18.

Dividend payout amounted to RM97.1mil, constituting 44.6% of its net profit for the year.

Mohamad Haslah said the group embarked on two joint ventures in FY19 namely with its Indonesian partners to develop an iconic building in Jakarta and with reputed education player Bonanza Educare Sdn Bhd to manage and enhance the operations of Matrix Global Schools.

“In FY19, the group entered into a joint venture with PT Bangun Kosambi Sukses and Nikko Sekuritas to develop the Islamic Financial Centre in Pantai Indah Kapuk 2 in Jakarta.

“The initial 26-storey twin towers development has an estimated gross development value of US$500mil (RM2.08bil), ” he said, adding that the ground-breaking ceremony for the project is scheduled to be held this November.

He said the joint venture with Bonanza, the founding team of Tenby Schools Malaysia, will help take Matrix Global Schools to its next phase of development.

He added that Matrix would also launch its second project in Melbourne, Victoria to be known as M.Greenvale following the success of its first development there known as M.Carnegie.

“Some 30% of the project, which comprise 70 bungalows, has already been taken up at the soft launch and we expect this to do well too.

“In fact, we are already planning to launch a 12-storey high-end apartment tower in St Kilda near Albert Park also in Melbourne in 2021, ” he said.

The M.Greenvale project has a gross development value of A$24mil (RM67.96mil).

He said the group, while being bullish of its Bandar Seri Sendayan (Negri Sembilan) and Bandar Seri Impian (Johor) townships, plans to expand its land bank in FY20.

“Going forward, we would continue to explore more land-banking opportunities especially in the immediate vicinity of our existing townships to capitalise on their ready infrastructure and vibrancy.

“This also ensures we maintain sufficient land bank to support long-term sustainability and growth, ” he added.

Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/08/22/matrix-concepts-expects-strong-growth-to-continue#eh3CRO6rJghsgLhi.99