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Saturday, August 31, 2019

Supermax posts 58.9% jump in Q4 net profit to RM15.06m

Friday, 30 Aug 20191:34 PM MYT

KUALA LUMPUR: Supermax Corp Bhd
image:'s net profit for the fourth quarter ended June 30, 2019, was RM15.06mil, a 58.9% jump from the same quarter in 2018 on higher sales revenue.

Group revenue rose 14.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) to RM375.96mil amid a rise in sales contribution from natural rubber and nitrile rubber gloves.

In a statement to the stock exchange, the group said the improved sales revenue was owing to the commissioning of the new replacement lines within the group and a stronger US dollar-ringgit exchange rate.

EBITDA for the quarter rose 0.3% while pre-tax profit slipped 10.7% on the back of an increase in production costs, including raw material costs.

For the full financial year, Supermax's net profit came in at RM123.75mil, 16% higher than previous year's result, while revenue grew 14.2% to RM1.49bil.

According to the statement, the group maintained a net gearing of 0.19x and a cash and cash equivalent positon of RM173.8mil as at June 30.

Moving forward, Block of A of Plant 12 is close to completion while Block B is scheduled for completion in 2020.

Each new block will provide an additional production capacity of 2.2 billion pieces per annum.

"By CY2024, upon the completion of the 3 new plants we have planned, our capacity will increase by approximately 13.2 billion pieces per annum.

"All additional new capacity will only lower our lead-time of 60 days to a more ideal level," said the group.

In the contact lens division, the group continues to work towards obtaining licences and approvals to increase market penetration globally.


The worst is over for Tabung Haji, says outgoing MD & CEO

Friday, 30 Aug 20195:45 PM MYT

KUALA LUMPUR: The worst is over for Lembaga Tabung Haji (TH) as the turnaround plan to stabilise the pilgrimige fund has started to bear fruit.

Outgoing TH managing director (MD) and chief executive officer (CEO) Datuk Seri Zukri Samat said the new management had been able to reduce the risk of a run on the fund and to restore its balance sheet.

He noted that a systemic risk would had happened if the turnaround plan had not taken place.

"The worst is over. Tabung Haji is now moving forward. We have subtracted the bad assets and so on. I told the Prime Minister's Office it is time for me to go. TH's excess over liability stood at more than RM1 billion.

"I have created a reserve account. During good days, you do not distribute all your profits. You keep some in the reserve. TH has no reserve before but now it has about RM400 million," he told Bernama in an interview recently.

Zukri, who was appointed to steer the TH turnaround in July last year, will make an early exit from TH due to health reasons. He will be succeeded by Nik Mohd Hasyudeen Yusoff on Sept 1,2019.

TH is the biggest shareholder of BIMB HOLDINGS BHD
image: with a 53.47 per cent stake.

TH recorded a stronger financial performance in the first half of 2019, underpinned by a sustainable investment strategy and prudent cost management measures.

The pilgrimage recorded RM1.3 billion in revenue due to its sustainable investment strategy and prudent cost management measures.

"I did not expect the situation was that bad. When I moved in, we looked at the so called issue and the whole situation is much worse than we thought. People talked about bad investments in TH Engineering and such. These are the information that the public know.

"But in reality, there is much more to that. What is more shocking is basically the revelation by the PwC report was commissioned by TH when the new leadership came on board, ” he said.

Zukri was referring to a PricewaterhouseCoopers’ (PwC) report which revealed that TH had failed to recognise a total of RM549 million in impairment losses on investments in several associate companies and subsidiaries.

The report came after the 2017 Auditor-General's Report disclosed that the pilgrim fund board had failed to report an asset impairment totalling RM227.81 million from its investment in three subsidiaries and three associates, including a RM164.58 million investment in TH Heavy Engineering Bhd

"When we see all the reports coming from PwC, the board feels that we got to check on this. When we came in, even though the account for 2017 has been done, it was not yet to be signed off.

"The board feels that we cannot signed off the account emphasis of matter being mentioned by the Auditor-General. For that reason, we appointed PwC to relook at the whole thing again," said Zukri.

The financial distress of TH was further aggravated by the weakening of the stock market in 2018, leading to a bigger deficit of RM10 billion as at Dec 31,2018 from RM4.1 billion a year earlier, as well as the adoption of a new accounting policy in the same year.

"Based on that accounting policy, certain provision has to be made in some of the investments. Because of that we are short by RM10 billion," said Zukri.

In December last year, the fund said that the Finance Ministry via special purpose vehicle (SPV) Urusharta Jamaah Sdn Bhd acquired its underperforming properties and equities in exchange for RM10 billion in sukuk and RM9.9 billion in Islamic redeemable convertible preference shares.

TH transferred RM19.9 billion worth of underperforming assets at the end of last year to the SPV as part of its restructuring plan. The fund has also reduced its exposure in equities by shifting its focus on fixed income to minimise risks.

Under Zukri’s leadership, TH managed to clean up the fund's balance sheet following years of accumulated deficit which have led to illegal dividend payments to its depositors since 2014.

"Our biggest task at the moment is how do we to make sure that we restore the balance sheet of Tabung Haji so that we are in the position to pay, not only for 2018 but also in the future," he said.

TH announced a hibah of 1.25 per cent to its depositors for the 2018 financial year, amounted to a total payout of RM913mil for TH's 9.3 million depositors.

Zukri also rubbished the perceptions that he was pressured to step down.

"There is a lot of perceptions in the market, which we can't stop. Some say that I am a non-performer -- that is why the government possibly takes me out and also there is also perceptions that Tun Daim (Tun Daim Zainuddin, ex-chairman of the Council of Elders) is impatient towards what happened in Tabung Haji.

"I am not trying to be sour grapes but even my achievements in Bank Islam was also being questioned. But you see the bank is going from strength to strength," he pointed out.

Prior to his appointment at TH, Zukri previously served as CEO of BIMB Holdings Bhd and was MD of Bank Islam Malaysia Bhd for over a decade.

Zukri also served as executive director of Khazanah Nasional Bhd and MD of Pengurusan Danaharta Nasional Bhd, a national asset management company set up by the government during the 1997/1998 financial crisis to take over non-performing loans of banks.

Asked how he feels about leaving on Merdeka Day, Zukri said: "This is what I tell my friends, I celebrate double Merdeka this year," he said. - Bernama


Panasonic sees better FY20 results

Friday, 30 Aug 20193:25 PM MYT

image: Bhd is expecting better financial year 2020 (FY20) performance despite the current volatile export market and ringgit.

Managing director Toyokatsu Okamoto said the company is sustaining its positive performance in Malaysia and ASEAN operating markets -- Brunei, the Philippines and Vietnam.

"Profitable, we are sustained. We hope for a better FY20," told reporters after its 54th annual general meeting here today.

In the first quarter ended June 30, 2019, Panasonic Malaysia's net profit rose to RM27.09 million from RM25.14 million in the same quarter a year ago.

However, revenue declined to RM291.4 million from RM305.57 million previously, due to lower sales in the export market for home appliances products, mainly in the Middle Eastern markets.

However, he said the downtrend was mitigated by increased demand for fan and home shower products from Malaysia and ASEAN markets.

He said the company is strengthening its footprint in its operating countries by expanding its business-to-business (B2B) segment and e-commerce presence as well as launching more new smart products.

He said Panasonic Malaysia aims to increase the B2B segment’s contribution to revenue to 50 per cent by 2030 from the current 20 per cent by expanding B2B channels.

"We are also moving into e-commerce channel through our business partners locally such as Lazada,” he said, adding Panasonic Manufacturing will be also launching smart sensor products in the second half of 2020.

In FY19, its net profit declined to RM105.75 million from RM131.03 million the previous year.

Revenue was 5.9 per cent lower at RM1.128 billion from RM1.199 billion amid a slowdown in the global economy, the US-China trade war and trade sanctions imposed by the US on certain Middle Eastern countries, which account for a good portion of its sales. - Bernama


Wednesday, August 28, 2019

Panasonic Manufacturing Malaysia Berhad - Dividend Payout Expected to Remain Attractive


1QFY20 normalised earnings declined by -8.0%yoy due to the lower contribution from the Middle East market
However, this is partially mitigated by the encouraging sales growth from the Asean region
Given the healthy cash level, we expect the group to maintain good dividend payout
Maintain Neutral with a revised target price of RM37.20.

1QFY20 normalised earnings declined by -8.0%yoy. Panasonic Manufacturing Malaysia Bhd (Panasonic)’s 1QFY20 normalised earnings declined by -8.0%yoy to RM25.8m. This is below ours and consensus expectations accounting for 18.0% and 19.6% of full year FY19 earnings forecasts respectively. The declined in earnings was attributable to the reduction in export sales particularly from Middle East market. Notwithstanding, we expect that the earnings momentum will pick up pace in the subsequent quarters driven by: (i) higher sales from Asean region and; (ii) better profit margin.

Lower sales from the Middle East market. In 1QFY20, the home appliance products segments’ profit before tax (PBT) fell by - 20.9%yoy. This was mainly attributable to: (i) slower oversea demand, primarily from the Middle East, (ii) rising cost of raw material and, (iii) unfavourable product sales mix. Note that the oversea market constitutes 60% of total sales. Of this, Middle East, which is the second largest key market for Panasonic recorded a significant dropped in export sales of RM21.9m or -32.7%yoy. The increasing trade sanctions imposed by the United States of America on Iran as well as the overflooding of inventories in the Saudi Arabiia has caused the slowdown in export sales.

Higher sales from the Asean countries. Despite the decline in sales from the Middle East market, the higher sales recorded by ASEAN countries such as Vietnam, Philippines and Brunei has contributed to the growth in Asian market. This region has recorded an encouraging growth of +8.9%yoy to RM88.0m thanks to Panasonic actively effort to penetrate new markets especially in the ASEAN region. In addition, sales from the Malaysian market grew marginally by +0.6%yoy due to the sales of Fan products. The higher domestic sales is attributable to the: (i) promotional activities held for the Hari Raya festive season and; (ii) increased purchases at distributor’s level resuting from a possible price adjustment in the next quarter.

Impact to earnings. We are revising our FY19F and FY20F earnings forecasts downwards by -5.0% and -5.4% respectively to take into account the slower than expected recovery of sales from the Middle East market.

Target price. Our target price is revised to RM37.20 which is based on pegging the FY21 EPS of 265.7 sen per share to PER of 14.0x. The assigned PER multiple is the group’s three year average historical PER.

Maintain NEUTRAL. We are maintaining our NEUTRAL recommendation on the stock as we remain cautious on the expectation of a slowdown in sales from the middle eastern market in the near term. Nonetheless, we expect that the domestic and ASEAN market will sustain earnings into the future. In addition, the relatively weaker Ringgit bodes well for the group as a significant of its revenue transaction in done in the USD. Also, the group is targeting to achieve RM2.0b sales by 2023 via: (i) strengthening manufacturing capabilities through the completion its new buildings; (ii) strengthening design capabilities with the incorporation of new R&D companies; (iii) implement automation in reducing reliance on labour. This is expected to improve sales and profit margins to sustain its earnings growth in the long term. In addition, with cash and cash equilvalent at RM638.0m as at 1QFY20, we believe that the company is able to continue giving out good dividend payout.

Source: MIDF Research - 28 Aug 2019

Sri Ram's opening statement at Najib's 1MDB-Tanore trial

KUALA LUMPUR (Aug 28): The following is appointed prosecutor Datuk Seri Gopal Sri Ram's opening statement at Najib's 1MDB trial, reproduced in full:

1. This case concerns the monies of a company called 1Malaysia Development Berhad, widely known as 1MDB. It was originally called Terengganu Investment Authority or TIA. The accused was instrumental in changing its name to 1MDB. He also caused amendments to be made to the articles of the company to place himself in sole control of important matters concerning the business and affairs of the company. In short, he was its plenipotentiary. Additionally, he was the chairman of the company's board of advisers. He used that position and that of Prime Minister and Minister of Finance to do certain acts and to exert influence over the board of 1MDB to carry out certain abnormal transactions with undue haste. The ultimate aim of the accused was to obtain gratification for himself. He succeeded in achieving that aim.

2. An elaborate charade was employed. It was acted out in four phases in which several characters played a part. But it was the accused who played the pivotal role. His objective was to enrich himself.

3. Although this case concerns four phases, the events in respect of them are to be considered as part of a consecutive story because of the pre-arranged plan by the accused to enrich himself.

4. An important character in the charade is a man called Low Taek Jho or Jho Low. He is a fugitive from justice. He was involved in TIA and later in 1MDB. The prosecution will prove that the accused by his words and conduct made it clear to 1MDB's officers, its board and others that Jho Low was his alter ego. In truth, Jho Low was the accused's mirror image. The prosecution will establish facts which will give rise to an irresistible inference that Jho Low and the accused acted as one at all material times.

5. The four charges under section 23 of the MACC Act are in respect of each of the four phases. In respect of these charges the prosecution will prove, through direct and circumstantial evidence that the accused, first in his capacity as the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, and later as Prime Minister of Malaysia and Minister of Finance took several steps that led to part of 1MDB's funds being channelled into his account through a circuitous route to prevent detection of its source. The accused thereby used his position for gratification. In each of the phases the accused acted as one with Jho Low.

6. The first phase concerns the scenario of a so-called joint venture created by the accused (acting through Jho Low and one Tarik Obaid, a close associate of Jho Low). It was a false scenario of a joint venture between 1MDB and a company called PetroSaudi International Ltd or PSI. It was called Project Aria. In the first phase the scheme worked in the following way.

7. 1MDB borrowed USD1 billion purportedly to invest in a joint venture company called 1MDB Petro Saudi Ltd. The money was to be paid into the account of the joint venture company. Petro Saudi International was to take up 60 percent of the shares in the alleged joint venture by injecting certain assets of dubious value. The USD1 billion was to represent 1MDB's contribution for its 40 percent shareholding. But the so-called Joint Venture Agreement was entered into not with PSI but with a company called Petro Saudi Holdings (Cayman) Ltd. And it was Tarik Obaid who executed the agreement on behalf of PetroSaudi Holdings (Cayman) Ltd. Evidence will be led to show the abnormality of the so-called joint venture which close scrutiny will reveal to be a mere device to siphon 1MDB's money for the accused's benefit.

8. The prosecution will, through oral and documentary evidence, prove that USD700 million of the USD1 billion, instead of being paid into the joint venture company's account was diverted into the account of a company called Good Star Ltd which in truth had nothing whatsoever to do with the joint venture. It was incorporated in the Seychelles on 18 May 2009 that is to say 5 months before the joint venture agreement was entered into. It was a company owned and controlled by Jho Low.

9. The payment to Good Star was made in great haste and without approval from 1MDB's board of directors and in defiance of its directions. Good Star was falsely described as the wholly owned subsidiary of PSI. The payment to Good Star, was vouched for by the accused through Jho Low as monies owed by the joint venture to PetroSaudi International (PSI). The joint venture agreement referred to a loan payable by the joint venture company to PetroSaudi Holdings (Cayman). The prosecution will through documents show that the so-called loan was a sham employed to justify the payment to Good Star.

10. In March 2010, 1MDB entered into a so-called Murabaha financing agreement under the terms of which alleged USD 1 billion equity in the joint venture company was converted into useless Murabaha notes and 1MDB was required to make available to the joint venture company a sum of USD1.5 billion. In September 2010, a sum of USD500 million was sent to the joint venture company. This money has gone missing. Then in May 2011, a further sum of USD 330 million which was supposed to be the second tranche of the investment into the Murabaha financing, was diverted to Good Star. The accused took positive steps to put through this transaction.

11. From the original sum of USD700 million sums of money were disbursed by Good Star to several persons including one Prince Faisal, a close associate of the accused, Jho Low and one Prince Turki. Prince Turki, the accused and Jho Low were so close that they holidayed together on a yacht in the south of France. Prince Faisal received USD12,500,000 from Good Star on 18 February 2011. He received a further sum of USD 12 million from Good Star on 10 June 2011 which came from the Murabaha scam. From these sums he transmitted USD20 million to the accused's personal account in two tranches of USD10 million each. The first tranche was received by the accused on 24 February 2011, that is to say, six days after Faisal received the money. The accused received the second tranche on 14 June 2011, that is to say, four days after Faisal received the money. The USD 20 million amounts to an equivalent of RM60,629,839.43. This forms the subject matter of the first charge.

12. The first phase came to an end in 2012 with 1MDB holding worthless pieces of paper. The scam having been achieved, Good Star was wound up on 2 May 2014 and PetroSaudi International was wound up on 8 April 2015.

13. The second phase concerns the acquisition of assets of dubious value by 1MDB. The accused using his position and acting through his mirror image, Jho Low took positive steps and caused 1MDB to enter into two transactions as a result of which the accused obtained a sum of RM90,899,927.28 as gratification. This forms the subject matter of the second charge.

14. These two transactions concerned the acquisition of two independent power producers namely, Tanjong Energy Holdings Sdn Bhd and Mastika Lagenda Sdn Bhd. Mastika owned 75% shares in Genting Sanyen Sdn Bhd. To make the purchase, 1MDB acted through its subsidiaries 1MDB Energy Holdings Ltd, 1MDB Energy Ltd and 1MDB Energy (Langat) Ltd (all Labuan companies) as well as through Malaysian registered companies, namely, 1MDB Energy Sdn Bhd and 1MDB Energy (Langat). These companies were used to raise finance for both acquisitions.

15. I now take each acquisition separately. A local bridging loan of RM 6.17 billion was raised for the acquisition of Tanjong Energy. An additional sum of USD1.75 billion was raised through the issue of 10 year structured loan notes. Goldman Sachs were appointed as lead arranger for the issuance of these Notes.

16. Of the USD 1.75 billion, USD 786 million went to Tanjong Energy. Of the balance, a sum of USD907 million was paid into the account of 1MDB Energy Ltd with Falcon Bank in Hong Kong. Of this sum approximately USD 577 million in round figures went to Aabar Investments PJS Ltd (BVI). This payment was purportedly as a security deposit for Aabar's holding company IPIC issuing a guarantee guaranteeing the Notes. In addition to the security deposit Aabar was also given an option to take up 49% shares owned by 1MDB Energy Ltd in 1MDB Energy Sdn Bhd. On 22 May 2012 USD 295 million was paid by Aabar to a company called Blackstone Asia. Blackstone is a company controlled by Jho Low through his associate Tan Kim Loong also known as Eric Tan. He is also a fugitive from justice. Additionally, on 25 July 2012 a further sum of USD 133 million was transferred by Aabar to Blackstone. These monies remained with Blackstone until October 2012. Goldman Sachs were paid USD 192.5 million as arranger's fee for this bond issuance.

17. For the Mastika acquisition, the alleged purchase price was RM 2.75 billion. The money for this came from two sources. First, another 10 year structured loan Notes of USD1.75 billion. For this 1MDB paid Goldman Sachs USD 110 million as arrangers' fee. So, 1MDB got a nett sum of USD 1.64 billion. This sum was paid into 1MDB Energy (Langat) Ltd's account with Falcon Bank, Hong Kong. The second was a local loan of RM700 million. The total loan raised from these two sources was about RM 6.16 billion. There was therefore available an excess of RM3 billion. This excess was almost wiped out by a payment on 23 October 2012 to Aabar Investment PJS (BVI) of a sum of approximately USD 790 million in round figures as security deposit for Aabar's holding company IPIC for allegedly guaranteeing the repayment of the notes. As additional security Aabar was given an option to take up 49% shares owned by 1MDB Energy (Langat) Ltd in 1MDB Energy (Langat) Sdn Bhd. For the Mastika acquisition, Genting Power was paid USD 710 million. The loan raised through the Notes for the Mastika purchase came into 1MDB Energy (Langat) Ltd's account on 19 October 2012

18. On 23 October 2012, Aabar paid a sum of approximately USD 291 million in round figures to Cistenique Investment Fund or CIF. On the same day Aabar paid USD 76 million to Enterprise Emerging Markets Fund (EEMF). On 23 October 2012 Aabar paid USD 75 million to Blackstone. This was part of the USD 790 million paid to Aabar. Later, on 5 November 2012 Aabar paid a further sum of USD 96 million to EEMF. Soon after CIF and EEMF received the monies in question they paid it over to Blackstone. These monies were then channelled by Blackstone into the accused's account as follows.

19. On 30 October 2012, a sum of USD 5 million was paid into the accused's account at AmPrivate Bank. Then, on 19 November a sum of USD 25 million was paid into the accused's account. The total sum received by the accused in the second phase is set out in the amended second charge. Evidence will be led to show how financial layering took place to provide a false justification for the movement of the monies. So much for the second phase.

20. The third phase concerns another purported joint venture between 1MDB and Aabar in equal shares. The joint venture company was called ADMIC. This forms the subject matter of the third charge. The purpose of this alleged joint venture was to develop TRX or the Tun Razak Exchange in Kuala Lumpur. IPIC was to guarantee Aabar's investment. The Ministry of Finance of which the accused was Minister guaranteed 1MDB's investment by way of a letter of support. A loan of USD 3 billion was raised for this alleged purpose. Goldman Sachs acted as the arranger of the loan.

21. On 14 March 2013 the accused signed a letter of support to raise a loan through the issue of bonds by 1MDB from the Bank of New York Mellon Group in the sum of USD 3 billion. On 19 March 2013 a sum of USD 2.721 billion was disbursed into the account of 1MBD Global Investment Limited with BSI Bank at Lugano in Switzerland. The balance went to pay the fee of Goldman Sachs.

22. From the USD 2.721 billion, a sum of USD 1,060,606,065 was paid into account of two fiduciary funds, namely, Devonshire Funds Ltd and EEMF. Devonshire received USD 646,464,649 in five tranches over two days, that is to say, on 20 and 21 March 2013. EEMF received USD 414,141,416 in three tranches, also within two days, that is, on 20 and 21 March 2013.

23. On 21 March 2013, Devonshire transferred USD 430 million to Granton Property Holding Ltd which is a company controlled by Eric Tan, Jho Low's shadow. On the same day Granton transferred the whole of that sum to Tanore Finance also a company controlled by Eric Tan. Also, on the same day, that is to say, 21 March 2013, Devonshire transferred a sum of USD 210 million to Tanore Finance Corporation. Then, between 22 March 2013 and 25 March 2013, EEMF transferred USD 250 million to Tanore which therefore by that date had USD 890 million in its hands.

24. Between 21 March 2013 and 10 April 2013 Tanore transferred USD 681 million to the accused's account. In terms of our currency this amounted to RM2,081,476,926. This sum forms the subject matter of the amended third charge.

25. Based on the evidence that the prosecution will adduce, the so-called joint venture never took off. There was no investment and there was no true joint venture. It was all a sham. This concludes the third phase.

26. The fourth phase concerns the purchase of the Aabar options by 1MDB. These are the options that were given to Aabar in 2012 as alleged part consideration for IPIC's guarantee for the notes that raised USD 3.5 billion forming part of the second phase.

27. In May and August 2014, 1MDB through its subsidiary 1MDB Energy Holdings Ltd obtained two loans totalling USD 1.225 billion from Deutsche Bank Singapore. The accused approved this transaction. The loans were secured by guarantees provided by 1MDB Energy and 1MDB Langat. There was a bridging loan of USD 250 million and a facility loan of USD 975 million. The first loan of USD 250 million was made available on 26 May 2014. From this amount a sum of USD 239,939,970 was paid into 1MDB Energy Holdings Ltd's account with Falcon Bank Hong Kong on 28 May 2014. Of this sum, Energy Holdings paid Aabar Investments PJS Ltd BVI USD 175 million to its account in BSI Lugano, Switzerland allegedly to part redeem the option given as additional security that was mentioned earlier when dealing with the second phase.

28. From the sum of USD 175 million a sum of USD 19 million was paid by Aabar to the account of a company called Affinity Equity International Partners Ltd. The payment was made on 18 June 2014. The account was held at DBS Bank Ltd Singapore. Affinity Equity is controlled by Eric Tan. Of the USD 19 million, a sum of USD 1.89 million was transferred to a company called Blackrock Commodities (Global) Ltd at its account held in DBS. Blackrock is a company controlled by Eric Tan. On 23 June 2014, a sum of GBP 750,000 was transferred to the accused's account. This works out to RM 4,093,500.

29. I now turn to the second loan of USD 975 million which was made available on 1 September 2014. Of this sum USD 250 million was utilised to discharge the bridging loan. That left USD 725 million. On 3 September a sum of USD 223,333,000 was transferred to Aabar Investments PJS Ltd (incorporated in Seychelles) at its account with UBS Singapore. Then, on 30 September 2014, USD 457,984,607 was paid to Aabar Investments PJS Ltd (incorporated in Seychelles) at its account with UBS Singapore. Between 16 October 2014 and 17 November 2014 Aabar transferred a sum of USD 226 million to Aabar International Investment PJS Ltd to its account in Barbados. Between 16 October 2014 and 17 November 2014, Aabar Barbados transferred USD 225,500,000 to Vista Equity International Partners Ltd (Barbados), a company owned and controlled by Eric Tan. Between 23 October 2014 and 19 December 2014 Vista Equity through five tranches in sterling currency transferred a sum equivalent to RM 45,837,485.70 to the accused's account. This sum together with the RM 4,093,500 earlier mentioned forms the subject of the fourth charge. It follows that part of the sum alleged to be used to redeem the option ended up in the accused's account. So much for the fourth phase.

30. I now turn to the twenty-one charges for money laundering offences. These are the AMLA charges. The first nine charges relate to receiving of the RM2,081,476,926 which forms the subject matter of the amended third charge. The monies fell into the accused's account ending 9694 with AmIslamic Bank. Between 2 August 2013 and 23 August 2013, the accused transferred a sum of RM2,034,350,000 to Tanore Singapore. Simultaneously, the accused used the balance of RM22,649,000 to pay four entities and one individual. The prosecution's case is that all these payments benefitted the accused.

31. After making these payments, the accused transferred the balance into a new account ending 1880 with AmBank through two transfers amounting RM162,436,711.87. He closed his account ending 9694.

32. The tenth charge and charges sixteen to nineteen relate to the transfers made by the accused to Tanore involving RM2,034,350,000.

33. Charges eleven to fifteen concern the use by the accused of the funds earlier referred to through payments to the four entities and one individual. All these payments were made by cheques signed by the accused.

34. Charges twenty and twenty-one concern the transfer of funds from the 9694 account to the 1880 account.

35. In this latter part of the case, the prosecution will establish the AMLA charges through direct and circumstantial evidence. It will be proved that in all the circumstances of the case, the accused committed the offence of money laundering contrary to Section 4(1)(a) of the Anti-Money Laundering and Anti-Terrorism Financing Act 2001 ("AMLATFA").

36. After the 1MDB scandal broke in early July 2015, the accused with his mirror image Jho Low took steps to cover his tracks. Sham documents were produced to pretend a donation from an Arab Prince. Among these were letters and four cheques each for a sum of USD 25 million purportedly written out by a person said to be the Arab donor. But these cheques were never meant to be encashed and were never encashed.

37. The prosecution will also produce evidence to show that the accused took active steps to evade justice. He interfered with the course of investigation of this case which has come to be known as the 1MDB Scandal. He took active steps to effect a cover up of his criminal acts. The prosecution will rely on all this evidence to show that the accused had the requisite mens rea when the offences with which he is charged were committed.

[转贴] AI教育风口正当下,谁才是真正的布道者?

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▲优必选科技高级副总裁、产品与解决方案部负责人 钟永







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此外,钟永还提到,“AI教育强调跟真实场景结合,不能让学生仅仅呆在教室里面去学人工智能,需要走出去。走出去有两种方式,第一种是到固定地方学校,比如去基地进行系统化学习。 第二种就是带学生去一些企业走访,打开他们的视野。”





▲优必选Robo Genius全球青少年机器人挑战赛

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2016年8月优必选以编程机器人Jimu Robot开始进入AI教育市场,推出之后很快获得了业内认可,一个典型例子是产品进驻了全球科技巨头苹果的零售店,而上一家被苹果看上的中国硬件企业是无人机界大牛大疆创新。



















Affin Bank - Strong Results But Unsustainable

Affin’s 2Q19 earnings rose 14% QoQ, beating expectations. The good showing was due to net writebacks for bad loans coupled with positive Jaws. That said, loans contracted and asset quality deteriorated further. All in all, w e raise our FY19 earnings forecast by 12% (to factor in lower net credit cost) but keep our FY20-21 estimates. Although 1H19 results appear strong, we do not think the positive net writebacks seen can be repeatable. Hence, if there is a price rally, we advise investors to sell on strength; Affin is still the least profitable listed bank in Malaysia and the risk-reward profile is balanced by its cheap valuations. Retain HOLD and GGM-TP of RM2.25, based on 0.47x 2020 P/B.

Beat expectations. Affin chalked in 2Q19 earnings of RM156m (+14% QoQ, doubled YoY), lifting 1H19 net profit to RM293m (+37% YoY). This beat estimates (due to net writebacks for bad loans), forming 56-60% of our and consensus full-year forecasts.

Dividend. None declared as Affin only divvy in 3Q.

QoQ. Positive Jaws (from faster total income growth of +3ppt vs opex) and higher net writebacks for impaired loans (tripled) led to bottom-line rising 14%. Also, net interest margin (NIM) nudged up 4bp to 1.65%. However, these were offset by higher effective tax rate (normalizing upwards by 3ppt).

YoY. Net profit doubled, thanks to the RM26m net writebacks for bad loans vs the RM92m allowances made in 2Q18. Otherwise, pre-provision profit was down 1% due to negative Jaws from tepid total revenue growth (+1%).

YTD. Similar to YoY showing, earnings jumped 37% given the net writebacks booked in 1H19. If not for this, pre-provision profit only ticked up 1%.

Other key trends. Loans contracted 0.4% YoY (1Q19: +4.6%) but deposits continued to rise at 12.3% YoY (1Q19: +8.3%). As a result, loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) fell 4ppt sequentially to 80.4%. That said, asset quality deteriorated again with gross impaired loans (GIL) ratio up 18bp QoQ to 3.49% (mainly due to property-related segments and large O&G corporate accounts).

Outlook. We see NIM slippage returning in subsequent quarters given the quick built up of expensive deposits, full 9 months impact from May-19’s OPR cut, and growing price-based competition for loans. Also, net credit cost is expected to normalise up as we reckon the recent positive writebacks seen are not sustainable given its pedestrian asset quality and low loan loss coverage.

Forecast. We raise our FY19 earnings forecast by 12% to factor in lower net credit cost (-16bp) but keep our FY20-21 estimates.

Retain HOLD and GGM-TP of RM2.25, based on 0.47x 2020 P/B with assumptions of 5.5% ROE, 8.4% COE, and 3.0% LTG. This is below its 5-year mean of 0.55x and the sector’s 1.04x. The discounts are justifiable given its lower ROE generation, which is 1ppt and 4ppt under its 5-year and industry average. Although 1H19 results appear strong, we do not think the positive net writebacks seen is repeatable. Hence, if there is a price rally, we would take the opportunity to sell on strength. We reckon balancing the slow growth landscape, mild negative carry created by deposits built up, high IT spending for customer acquisition, along with cost inflation, are not easy feats at all. Affin is still the least profitable listed bank in Malaysia and the risk-reward profile is evened by its inexpensive valuations.

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 28 Aug 2019

TIME DotCom - Solid as a Rock

TdC’s 1H19 core net profit of RM160m (+13% YoY) was in line. The solid results were mainly driven by data and voice, while data centre was flat. Partly due to MFRS16, EBITDA margin in 2Q19 shot up to all-time high of 49% thanks to operational excellence. 1H19 capex amounted to RM65m and it will invest in data centre going forward. Regional associates contributed a total of RM7m to earnings. Reiterate BUY with unchanged SOP-derived TP of RM10.14.

Within expectations. 2Q19 core net profit of RM85m (+14% QoQ, +20% YoY) brings 1H19’s total to RM160m (+13% YoY), with matched expectations accounting for 50% and 51% of HLIB and consensus full year forecasts, respectively. One-off adjustments include provisions for forex and doubtful debts.

Dividend. None (2Q18: none) as it usually declares at the end of FY.

QoQ. Top line grew 6% as all product lines gained, led by data (+7%), followed by voice (+3%) and data centre (+1%). 2Q19 had a one-off non-recurring data contract revenue amounting to RM3m. After one-off adjustment, core net profit increased 14% attributable to operational excellence.

YoY. Turnover grew 16% supported by higher contributions from data (+21%) and voice (+7%), more than sufficient to offset the weakness in data centre (-7%). The decline in data centre was mainly due to one-off non-recurring revenue of RM3m in 2Q18; excluding that, data centre would have grown by 2%. In turn, core PATAMI jumped 20% to RM85m on the back of improved margin.

YTD. Revenue expanded by 15% mainly driven by data’s 18% growth, followed by voice’s 6% gain while data centre was flat. Core net profit improved by a lower rate of 13% no thanks to MFRS16. On the pre-MRFS16, bottom line would have grown at a stronger 18% due to efficiency gain.

Regional associates. CMC (Vietnam) and Symphony (Thailand) were profitable and contributed RM7m to 1H19’s bottom line. Meanwhile, KIRZ (Thailand) broke even and has yet to see any improvement. TdC is working with its associates and partner in Cambodia in network integration to achieve operational synergies and to create a seamless regional telco network across Indochina, Malaysia and Singapore.

CAPEX. 1H19 capex amounted to RM65m vs. earlier guidance of RM320m as submarine cable investment cycle is coming to an end. However, TdC shared that it may invest more in data centre segment going forward.

Forecast. Unchanged as Results Are in Line.

Reiterate BUY with unchanged SOP-derived TP of RM10.14 (see Figure #2). We like TdC as its retail is gaining momentum on the back of reach expansion and undisputable high value products. Also, data centre is expanding resiliently as IT outsourcing, cloud computing and virtualization are widely adopted. GBS is no longer a drag and expected to perform better as demand recovers.

Alliance Bank - Falling Short of Expectations

Author: HLInvest | Publish date: Wed, 28 Aug 2019, 9:01 AM

Alliance’s 1QFY20 core net profit fell 36% QoQ and 44% YoY, coming in below estimates. The primary reason for the poor set of results was due to higher loan loss provision and impairment on financial investments. Also, NIM contracted, loans growth tapered, and asset quality weakened. Hence, we reduce our FY20- 22 bottom-line forecasts by 7-13%. Despite the weak showing, we find that value has emerged (due to recent price drop, now trading at -2SD P/B) and it is one of the few domestic banks that offers >5% cash dividend yield. Maintain BUY with a lower GGM-TP of RM3.70 (from RM4.20), based on 0.92x CY20 P/B.

Missed expectations. Alliance’s 1QFY20 core earnings fell 36% QoQ (-44% YoY) to RM77m, after adjusting for one-off goodwill impairment for its stockbroking business in 4QFY19. This missed estimates, made up only 13% of our and consensus full-year forecasts due to unexpectedly high bad loans provision and impairment on financial investments.

Dividend. None proposed as Alliance only divvy in 2Q and 4Q of its financial year.

QoQ. The 36% decline in core net profit was due to higher loan loss provision (+40%) and impairment on financial investments, amounting to RM49m. Also, total revenue growth was softer, rising only 1% given that net interest margin (NIM) contracted 10bp to 2.40%. However, these were offset by: i) robust non-interest income (NOII, +17%) as investment gains doubled and (ii) the 3% opex drop, helped to fuel positive Jaws.

YoY. Negative Jaws from quicker opex growth (+8%) vs total income (+2%), 50% rise in allowance for bad loans, and RM49m impairment on financial investment, caused core bottom-line to dip by 44%. The jump in opex was owing to higher depreciation and amortisation charges (+2-fold) along with personnel cost (+6%).

Other key trends. Loans growth tapered to 5.5% YoY (4QFY19: +6.0%) but deposits expanded quicker at 8.2% YoY (4QFY19: +5.3%). Sequentially, loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) nudged down 1ppt to 94%. As for asset quality, gross impaired loans (GIL) ratio increased 18bp to 1.3%, no thanks primarily to 3 bad large customer accounts in the manufacturing and wholesale segments.

Outlook. We see NIM to continue to slip in subsequent quarters given the full 9 months impact from May-19’s OPR cut and growing price-based competition for loans. That said, we do not think it would be overly severe considering it is shifting its asset mix to better yielding risk adjusted return loans. Also, we expect its relatively robust lending growth momentum (+5-6%) to chug along since Alliance has an innovative suite of products and services. While for asset quality, despite 1QFY20’s deterioration, we expect some improvement from gradual recoveries and proactive credit management practices.

Forecast. We cut FY20-22 net profit forecasts by 7-13% to reflect the poor set results (from higher incremental net credit cost of 7-10bp and RM49m impairment on financial investment) along with softer NIM assumption (factoring in another -2bp).

Maintain BUY but with a lower GGM-TP of RM3.70 (from RM4.20), following our earnings cut and based on 0.92x CY20 P/B (from 1.05x) with assumptions of 8.9% ROE (from 9.7%), 9.4% COE, and 3.0% LTG. This is below its 5-year mean of 1.17x and the sector’s 1.04x. The discount is fair given its falling ROE trend (1-2ppt lower vs 5-year mean and sector average). Despite the weak showing, we find that value has emerged (due to recent price drop, now trading at -2SD P/B) and it is one of the few domestic banks that offers >5% cash dividend yield.

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 28 Aug 2019

Panasonic Manufacturing Malaysia - Sales to Middle East Stutters Again

Author: HLInvest | Publish date: Wed, 28 Aug 2019, 9:03 AM

1QFY20 core PAT of RM28.0m (QoQ: +27.8%, YoY: -23.4%) was below ours and consensus expectations, accounting for just 22.7% and 20.9% of forecasts, respectively. The shortfall was mainly due to trade sanctions imposed by the US government on certain Middle East regions resulting in significantly lower sales. After factoring in weaker earnings from sales to the Middle East, we lower our FY20/21 earnings by 11.2%/4.2%. After our earnings adjustment, our TP falls from RM34.55 to RM30.70 based on an unchanged PEx of 17 of FY20 EPS of 180.6 sen. We downgrade our call from a Hold to a SELL. Although we are positive on PMM’s planned capacity expansion and net cash position of RM10.50, external headwinds beyond its control such as US trade sanctions on certain countries in the Middle East will continue to hamper near term results.

Below expectations. 1QFY20 core PAT of RM28.0m (QoQ: +27.8%, YoY: -23.4%) was below ours and consensus expectations, accounting for just 22.7% and 20.9% of forecasts, respectively. The shortfall was mainly due to trade sanctions imposed by the US government on certain Middle East regions which materially impacted sales.

Dividend. None Declared (1QFY19: None).

QoQ: Seasonally stronger sales (+29.1%) was due to both home appliances (+23.7%) and fan products (+33.1%). Better home appliance sales was attributed to increased export sales to other ASEAN countries while better fan product sales were due to Hari Raya festive period promotions. Note that 4Q is typically a seasonally weak quarter. Core PAT rose 27.8% in tandem with better sales.

YoY: Decline in home appliance sales (-15.9%) was mainly due to poorer sales to the Middle East, despite better home appliance sales to Vietnam, Philippines and Brunei. Weaker sales to the Middle East were due to trade sanctions imposed by the US government on certain countries in addition to liquidity issues faced by a major distributor in the region. Better fan product sales (+4.8%) were due to increased purchases at the distributor level pending a possible price adjustment in the following quarter. Core PAT declined 23.4% due to losses incurred by associate company (40% stake) which is involved in the sales of Panasonic branded products.

Prospects: Continued difficulties selling to the Middle East region is expected to impact PMM’s profitability. Furthermore, with distributors buying fan products before price increase in the coming quarter, we expect lower sales from the fan products division in the coming quarter. Operationally, PMM has announced the expansion of a new wing, expected to increase production capacity by 18%. PMM intends to use the space to reduce their reliance on external part makers by increasing their capacity of making appliance parts in house.

Forecast. After factoring in weaker earnings from sales to the Middle East, we lower our FY20/21 earnings by 11.2%/4.2%.

Downgrade to SELL, TP: RM30.70. After our earnings adjustment, our TP falls from RM34.55 to RM30.70 based on an unchanged 17x PE of FY20 EPS of 180.6 sen. We downgrade our call from a Hold to a SELL. Although we are positive on PMM’s planned capacity expansion and net cash position of RM10.50, external headwinds beyond its control such as US trade sanctions on certain countries in the Middle East will continue to hamper near term results.

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 28 Aug 2019

Tuesday, August 27, 2019

Andrea Unger - Patterns in trading

Hi guys, hi from Andrea Unger.

Patterns in trading.

Who follows my material knows that I seldom use indicators in my trading systems and who follows me more in-depth, also knows that I base most of my buildings in trading systems on patterns, chart patterns but the way I use them is not the conventional way.
The “Unger way” to use Patterns in Trading

I mean, I use patterns, but I start from a basic model without patterns, and on this basic model, which would be a trend following model, a counter-trend model or even a bias model, on this model I then insert filters from a library proprietary a library of patterns, to understand how the market reacts to different situations.

My patterns try to identify the situation in the market and, based on the response of the system on my patterns’ application, I try to understand the dynamics of the market and then I use patterns to filter the trades from the basic model.

This is the Unger way use patterns, but when we talk about patterns, immediately what comes into our mind, is the classical patterns from technical analysis or from price action and these patterns are the setup, the base, the start of a trade.

If there is the pattern then I take the trade if the pattern is broken from a breakout or something, that’s this work.

The evidence is in numbers and what I do is that I test different situations. 

A sample test of pattern in trading

I remember, you might know I am a member of SIAT, the Italian Society of Technical Analysis, part of IFTA, I was a standard member, now I am an honorary member, I had been part previously in the scientific committee of SIAT and having been asked to, I wrote an article about engulfing bullish, this well-known technique, candlestick technical analysis pattern.

I run a number of tests with software simply to define that there was no way, in my opinion, to make this pattern work.

So my response was that this pattern doesn’t work as it is supposed to do from literature.

It was a disaster, people got angry saying: “You cannot say this… the pattern needs to be contextualized, it needs to be understood in what situation it has to work and so on and bla bla bla bla bla”.

I tried to place the pattern in specific situation with some filters, trend filters and a number of situation, but in the end I did not find a unique way to say: “Yes this pattern works if…” no I’m not able to make this pattern work and this pattern is reported as one of the most successful and strong in the candlestick theory, but my tests did not show any evidence of the strength of this pattern.

What I said is: “I believe that people from the society of technical analysis who became mad at me saying that I had to understand the pattern, were people working with candlestick patterns, making a living of candlestick patterns” so finding Andrea Unger writing “This pattern doesn’t work” was outrageous, but what I answered is that probably, these people with their putting the pattern in the right place, contextualizing the pattern and so on, in the end, did use their feeling, their particular feeling of the market.

So it’s something that is not algorithmic, but it’s something very human and they were able to find a way to make that pattern work, because they had that something that gave them the right answer or the right reading of the pattern, but the standard student reading a book or going through a course about candlesticks, probably had not the same feeling and normally started his way to ruin because that pattern, that specific one as many others, simply didn’t work the way it was supposed to do.

I’m not here to say: “Patterns of technical analysis don’t work only algo trading the way I do is the way to go”, no don’t claim this, it’s the truth but… (just kidding) but I test things. 

My project about Patterns in Trading

So I started a path of tests a long time ago and now I try to put everything together and I will do that in this magazine about automated trading from myself I mean (and this is me) and in different chapters I will go through a number of well-known patterns with classical entries, exits and different ways to use the patterns to see what works in front of evidence of numbers, because the right way to go is to test things.

If the test is positive you can use it, if the test is negative you have to understand why it is negative, maybe there is a reason, maybe once you found the reason you’ll find a way to make it work, or if it simply doesn’t work and there is no reason to have it working, you abandon it. 

My conclusion

I did that and I can anticipate that one of the patterns that surprisingly showed the cleanest results with classical pattern/entry at breakout of the pattern/stop-loss at the opposite part of the pattern/ take profit 3 times the stop, so a very very basic situation, is the outside bar.

The outside bar is a bar that normally, in my Andrea Unger trading style, normally blocks you from trend following entries, because such a large range bar, because an outside bar is obviously a large range bar, being larger than the previous bar, normally inhibits the trend because you have had “decision” and now you have a period of “choppy” markets and therefore you don’t enter for a breakout for a trend.

In this case, looking for a trend for this pattern was a surprise for me to see that there is a situation where this pattern produces profits.

So I mean, it’s interesting and I’m very happy, I run this test because I found interesting results that I can use in my trading, that you can use in your trading if you read this articles and if you follow what we do.

I put this here, there will be many chapters because there are many patterns, the classical patterns, the outside, the inside, the engulfing, the pin bars and hammer, hanging man, whatever.

I mean, all these very well-known technical analysis patterns, I’ll try to put them together into systems to see if and how they work.

That’s it guys, if you have experience with patterns please comment here below, it will be interesting to share and I will keep you updated and posted about new outcomes in this research.

In the meantime ciao from Andrea Unger, see you next time ciao.

Discover Your Next Trading Step w/ this Test >>

What do you think about this post? Don’t forget to share your thoughts in the comments below!

Monday, August 26, 2019

In a world of negative yields, Singapore still pays interest

Monday, 26 Aug 2019

Singapore isn’t immune to the underlying trends in global bonds and the sale has to overcome the challenge of a yield curve that’s near the flattest on record.

TOKYO: Singapore is offering a rare opportunity to buy positive-yielding quality bonds in a world that’s rapidly turning negative.

The city state, which pays the highest returns among economies that have AAA credit ratings from all three major agencies, will sell reopened July 2029 government debt worth S$2.9bil (US$2.1bil) on Wednesday, the second-largest amount on record for 10-year tenors.

Singapore isn’t immune to the underlying trends in global bonds and the sale has to overcome the challenge of a yield curve that’s near the flattest on record.

The yield premium that investors receive by holding 10-year notes instead of two-year securities briefly evaporated this month, dropping to minus 1.14 basis point on Aug. 15. That’s the lowest in data going back to 1998 for this spread, which has managed to claw its way back into positive territory.

Size also matters, as Germany discovered last week, when it failed to meet a €2bil (US$2.2bil) target last week for the world’s first 30-year debt with a zero percent coupon.

But if Australia is any guide, the Singapore auction should see solid demand given the combination of the country’s top rating and high yields.

A flatter curve hasn’t dented investor appetite in AAA-rated Australia, which recently drew a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.69 for May 2030 notes. That was up from 2.67 at the previous offering even as the spread between three- and 10-year yields narrowed to the least since 2011.

Singapore’s July 2029 debt that’s been sold in the past yielded 1.83% in the secondary market on Aug 22. That compares with 1.64% for 10-year US Treasury notes.

This is the last sale of 10-year notes on the city state’s schedule to date, with the remaining two auctions on the calendar for two- and seven-year debt. An optional “mini” auction is planned in September but the tenors haven’t been announced.

“A lot of investors will be trying to ‘catch the tail’, ” said Eugene Leow, a fixed-income strategist at DBS Bank Ltd. in Singapore, referring to the chase for the highest yields possible.

“Within the AAA space, I believe 10-year Singapore government securities offer one of the most attractive yields.” he said ahead of a gathering of global central bankers at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. — Bloomberg


Germans upset with negative rates

Monday, 26 Aug 2019

Finance Minister Olaf Scholz (pic) says he’ll look into whether it’s possible to prevent German banks from charging most retail-banking clients for deposits, after such a measure was proposed by the leader of Bavaria. Lenders have rejected the idea, saying bans don’t ultimately help clients and could even destabilise financial markets.

FRANKFURT: Most Germans live by the credo that saving is a virtue, but the European Central Bank’s (ECB) negative interest rates risk making a mockery of the national obsession, prompting politicians to seek ways to insulate thrifty citizens and keep the burden on the country’s beleaguered banks.

Finance Minister Olaf Scholz (pic) says he’ll look into whether it’s possible to prevent German banks from charging most retail-banking clients for deposits, after such a measure was proposed by the leader of Bavaria. Lenders have rejected the idea, saying bans don’t ultimately help clients and could even destabilise financial markets.

Germany’s overcrowded banking industry has long contended with sub-par profitability, but after five years of negative rates, lenders are running out of ways to offset the hit to earnings.

With the country gearing up for regional elections next month, the ECB is an easy target for a country known for its risk-averse attitude to money and its habit of hording savings in checking accounts. At €2.35 trillion (US$2.6 trillion), no other country in the eurozone has a larger pile of retail deposits.

Germany’s citizens also save far more of their disposable income than most other Europeans. The country’s savings rate was around 10% in 2017, almost twice the eurozone average, according to Deutsche Bank AG. On average, Germans held more than 40% of their financial assets in the form of bank deposits in 2018.

Negative rates, which mean deposits decline over time rather than increase, “would be bad for all savers, ” said Juergen Dengel, a 40-year-old civil servant from Bonn. If negative rates were introduced at his bank, he would consider withdrawing his money and using it to build a home -- even if that meant going into debt.

“This is a total political football, ” said Klaus Fleischer, a professor specialising in finance at the Munich University of Applied Sciences. “People love to hear someone standing up for them when their savings melt away.”

Not everyone’s in favour of outlawing deposit charges, though. “A ban on negative rates might be attractive for savers, but then we have to also think of how we’d support unprofitable but systemically-relevant banks, ” said Ingrid Arndt-Brauer, a lawmaker for the Social Democratic Party, Angela Merkel’s junior coalition partner.

The ECB itself is considering ways to relieve the burden of negative rates on banks.

Negative rates are a double whammy for lenders. Euro-area banks pay more than 7 billion euros a year to deposit funds overnight with their central bank, while at the same time their income from lending is eroded.

That has helped push the share prices of many European lenders to record lows and has left Germany’s Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank AG reeling from falling revenue and shrinking profitability.

Banks across Europe already pass on negative rates to corporate clients and aren’t ruling out doing the same to retail customers. In Germany, the issue has exploded onto the front pages of the country’s largest tabloid, with Bavarian Premier Markus Soeder even calling for a ban on deposits of up to €100,000.

“These suggestions show how far the undesired side effects of the ECB’s negative rates stretch, ” Germany’s banking lobby said in a statement, referring to the central bank’s deposit rate of minus 0.4%. Still, banks cannot ignore the market as a whole when setting their conditions –- even when rates fall below zero, the group said.

Some German retail banks already charge customers for holding as little as €100,000 in deposit accounts, though they have have yet to extend the policy to the bulk of their customers.

Fabian Rodenbach, a 40-year-old teacher from Cologne, already shops around for the best rates. “For years now, I have also been putting my money into savings accounts in other European countries, ” he said.

Mittelbrandenburgische Sparkasse said it spent €3.65mil last year to park funds at the central bank and other lenders. At the same time, the company collected only €840,0000 from corporate customers and municipalities by charging a negative interest rate of 0.4% on deposits of more than €2.5mil.

Any step to limit banks’ options to deal with negative rates would mark an escalation in tensions between the ECB and parts of the German political establishment, which have long criticized the central bank’s loose monetary policy. I

n 2016, then-Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, who currently presides over the Bundestag, pinned some blame for the rise of the populist Alternative for Germany party on the ECB.

It’s far from clear whether the ban that Soeder suggested would be possible to implement, said Fleischer, the professor in Munich. Scholz said the legality of such a measure would be among the first things his ministry will examine. — Bloomberg


Sunday, August 25, 2019

[转贴] 10個低成本創業案例告訴你沒錢該如何創業!




































































[转贴] 90%的人,都对失败有误解

人们天生就是很难接受自己这个人是失败的, 比如我们减肥失败了,会安慰自己努力过就好;比赛失败了,会跟自己说,贵在坚持。




















Friday, August 23, 2019





除了以上行业,让瑞士闻名于世的还有金融业,包括了瑞银(UBS) 和瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)两大金融巨头。这几个行业在世界都是佼佼者。


























说了这么多竟然忘了提到这本书的书名。这本书的名字《苏黎世公理》(The Zurich Axioms)。





香港是個19世紀,兩次鴉片戰爭,歷史遺留下來的畸胎,亦正因如此,香港才這麼獨特、迷人,和具有價值。但既然DNA是畸形的,怎可能成長為一個完全「正常」的社會(當然沒有絕對定義) ?

兩個權宜之計 深種不穩禍根


(1) 聯繫滙率有助穩定投資者信心,非常適合香港的開放式經濟,更對中國吸收外資非常有幫助。但由於過去35年,大部分時間中國的增長率和通脹都遠高於美國,而香港經濟跟內地的經濟愈來愈密切,本需要較高息口來壓抑通脹和更重要的地產泡沫,但在聯繫滙率機制下,貨幣政策早已「外判」給了美聯儲,息口從上世紀80年代初的15厘以上,跌至GFC(環球金融危機)後的零利率,再加3輪QE。結果就是全球最昂貴的樓價,和最不合人道的人均生活面積。

(2) 「一國兩制」的2047時限問題。自回歸後,香港已不再是英國羞恥地搶來的所謂borrowed place,但竟然奇怪地竟仍活在非常有限的borrowed time。即使當年英國租新界,年期都有99年,但「一國兩制」竟然只有50年,即僅現在香港人均壽命的60%左右,對現在才十來歲的年青人來看,怎可以不擔心?過短的時限設計,是個極奇怪和嚴重的漏洞,即使深圳作為一個經濟特區,都沒有限期,為何已變回中國永遠屬土的香港,仍需再次面對此「租約期滿」問題?

(3) 《基本法》奇怪地也似乎故意留下多處憲法上的重要空白,包括23條,和更重要,如何達到普選的方法?為何當年不索性訂下一套完善的選舉法,或最少說清楚一條路線圖和時間表?在任何地方,從來修憲都是一件極困難的事情。美國無法修憲控制槍械,就是個好例子。理論上,設計雙普選並非修憲,仍留在一國兩制和基本法框架內,但實際上只是完成廿多年前,仍未完成的立憲工作。
貨幣貶值戰 聯匯將成犧牲



我從來不擔心Kyle Bass之類的三流外國勢力來衝擊聯繫滙率,即使索羅斯(一流)也不怕。我最怕的是人民幣的半主動/半被動貶值,如真的只是一次性微調還好,但如不幸成為長期政策,真的以貶值來打愈來愈全球化的貨幣戰,我就非常擔心聯繫滙率將成為這場戰役的犧牲品。這不會是一個單純的經濟決定,必將是綜合經濟、外交和內政考慮的複雜決定,包括為何繼續支持美元為國際儲備貨幣,和內地人對香港的看法。





3條出路 港獨危險難行

(1) 不忌諱,少數極端分子其實是在追求「港獨」,成功機會絕對是零,亦當然極度危險。撇開民族大義,連食物和水源等實際問題都不講,只用兩段英治年代歷史來證明此舉的危險和不可行性。




隨便舉兩個例子,昨天說美國應跟香港人站在一起,對抗北京的參議院共和黨大多數領袖Mitch McConnell,他是靠老婆運輸部長趙小蘭發達的,大量選舉經費亦來自老婆外家。早前,《紐約時報》曾作深入調查報道,披露趙小蘭爸爸,船運大亨趙錫成的大部分資金來自中國的銀行,業務亦以中國為主,他更是某前領導人的同窗兼好友。 美國前副總統Joe Biden,他兒子的私募基金,從2013年至今已接受了超過15億美元的中國資金。

我更求神拜佛,特朗普千萬不可插手香港。兩星期前,他在接見巴基斯坦總理Imran Khan時,隨口說他願意充當巴基斯坦跟印度在Kashmir(克什米爾)邊境問題上的調停人。印度總理Modi認為此舉為干預內政,即時取消整個Kashmir實行了70年的一國兩制(Article 370),拘留所有政府高官,執行軍事戒嚴。同樣,如特朗普干預香港事務,只會令到情况更差,主權遠比貿易重要。

(2) 有些人希望大致上不變形,不走樣,港人治港,高度自治的「一國兩制」可獲得續約,因為2047年的時限實在太短。當年鄧小平也口頭上答應過如有需要,可給予更多時間,但可惜沒有寫下來。在現今情况,我認為以同樣條件來「續約」的可能性不太大,且機會肯定因近月事件而降低不少。

首先既然香港已回歸22年,竟仍可活在borrowed time之下已相當奇怪,為何中央會讓這歷史遺留下來的畸形情况再延續下去。有朋友妙想天開,問有沒有可能,香港人以交稅來交換「續約」?中央絕不缺錢,根本不可能動之以財。且看丹麥,也絕不會考慮特朗普神經的Greenland(格陵蘭)收購建議!



(3) 除非中央另作闡述,法理上,到2047年7月1日,《基本法》到期,將變為一國一制。當然大灣區發展,除幫助發展區內經濟外,似乎也有為此作出準備的意思。硬件上問題不大,高鐵和港珠澳大橋都通車了。本來的4+9,近日的深圳先行示範區等計劃都已出台,作好幾手準備。也歡迎港人搬到大灣區,未來應可享受到與內地人一樣的待遇。
移民潮再現 北京將鼓勵新移民




其實完全一國一制也不容易,我相信仍需要一些例外。簡單如交通,香港開車是右軚的,與內地相反。普通法下的公司法、合同法和破產法等,也與內地法律非常不同(內地仍未有個人破產法,可能快出台),要完全改變也不容易。 但這些都是在一國大前提下的小例外,不能算一國兩制。


香港是個華洋混集的國際大都會,生於大時代的動盪,成長於難民潮的血淚史, 孕育無數商界傳奇故事。大家都推崇備至的香港精神,其實也包含一點「旅港」的過客心態,未必是壞事。

[譚新強 中環新譚]




貿易戰已近尾聲 旨在多要着數





[湯文亮 敢說反話]

Thursday, August 22, 2019


Author: i3gambler | Publish date: Tue, 20 Aug 2019, 9:14 PM


1)看下图,我猜发行商是输入Dividend Yield=3.50%,Interest=3.50%,以及Volatility=10.00%,所以合理价是45.3 / 700 = 0.065。

2)看下图,我是输入Dividend Yield=2.77%,Interest=7.69%,以及Volatility=7.00%,所以合理价是55.5 / 700 = 0.079。


3.1)为什么我猜发行商输入Dividend Yield=3.50%,而我自己却输入2.77%呢?其实综合指数的Dividend Yield的确是一年3.52%,可是从现在到明年二月底的Dividend是比较少的,算起来Dividend Yield只是2.77%。

3.2)为什么我猜发行商输入Interest=3.50%,而我自己却输入7.69%呢?在计算合理价的原理,发明这套计算方法的专家是把它应用在很稳的投资,既然很稳,那回酬就应该很低,而最低就当然是Risk Free Interest,在马来西亚的现况是约3.50%咯。可是我不认同这个看法,我看综合指数不是稳重到只能期待3.50%的投资,如果我们跟人家说投资大蓝筹股(综合指数)只能期待3.50%的回酬,肯定笑死人。那么我只好在这个论坛里找各个证卷行给综合指数的30个指数股的目标价,这些目标价都是指12个月的目标,而且是不计股息,我从中扣50%,加回股息3.52%,就得到7.69%。

3.3)为什么我猜发行商输入Volatility=10.00%,而我自己却输入7.00%呢?综合指数在过去150天里,Volatility都是在7点多%徘徊,我不想放高过7.00%。而发行商一般的做法是把Volatility mark-up,作为它们的盈利,这个发行商是很合理的,不会mark-up得很离谱,其他得发行商就很离谱咯,我根本就不可能从它们发行的凭单中找到便宜货!



















如果你对这两个问题的回答都是“不” 的话,那么让我建议你考虑替代的解决方案。

































Matrix Concepts expects strong growth to coninue

Thursday, 22 Aug 2019

Matrix Concepts chairman Datuk Mohamad Haslah Mohamad Amin (centre) looking through the group annual report before its annual general meeting yesterday. Also present were group executive deputy chairman Datuk Lee Tian Hock (left) and group managing director Ho Kong Soon. - The Star

SEREMBAN: Riding on its record performance in financial year 2019 (FY19), which was achieved amidst a challenging environment, MATRIX CONCEPTS HOLDINGS BHD
image: has embarked on several projects as it aims to maintain the strong momentum for the current financial year 2020 (FY20).

Group chairman Datuk Mohamad Haslah Mohamad Amin said the property developer has lined up new launches worth RM1.4bil, comprising mainly landed property, for the FY20.

Besides this, it is also venturing into the construction sector in Indonesia and will be launching its second project in Melbourne, Australia.

“We did very well despite a difficult and very challenging market the past year and this has reinforced our track record of consistent growth since listing and delivering greater returns to our shareholders.

“In light of strong demand, we are confident that our expansionary streak would continue in the current financial year ending March 31,2020, ” he said at the company’s 22nd AGM held at the d’Tempat Country Club in Bandar Seri Sendayan here.

Mohamad Haslah, who expects the market to be equally challenging over the next six months, said based on forecast result for the first quarter of FY20, the group should be able to sustain growth for the said period.

He attributed the group’s strong performance in FY19 to the launch mix of mainly affordable to mid-end offerings in its two townships Negri Sembilan and Johor.

In FY19, Matrix Concept’s new property sales had risen to a record RM1.3bil from RM1.2bil a year ago.

Group net profit for the year also improved to RM218.4mil from RM213.3mil in FY18.

Dividend payout amounted to RM97.1mil, constituting 44.6% of its net profit for the year.

Mohamad Haslah said the group embarked on two joint ventures in FY19 namely with its Indonesian partners to develop an iconic building in Jakarta and with reputed education player Bonanza Educare Sdn Bhd to manage and enhance the operations of Matrix Global Schools.

“In FY19, the group entered into a joint venture with PT Bangun Kosambi Sukses and Nikko Sekuritas to develop the Islamic Financial Centre in Pantai Indah Kapuk 2 in Jakarta.

“The initial 26-storey twin towers development has an estimated gross development value of US$500mil (RM2.08bil), ” he said, adding that the ground-breaking ceremony for the project is scheduled to be held this November.

He said the joint venture with Bonanza, the founding team of Tenby Schools Malaysia, will help take Matrix Global Schools to its next phase of development.

He added that Matrix would also launch its second project in Melbourne, Victoria to be known as M.Greenvale following the success of its first development there known as M.Carnegie.

“Some 30% of the project, which comprise 70 bungalows, has already been taken up at the soft launch and we expect this to do well too.

“In fact, we are already planning to launch a 12-storey high-end apartment tower in St Kilda near Albert Park also in Melbourne in 2021, ” he said.

The M.Greenvale project has a gross development value of A$24mil (RM67.96mil).

He said the group, while being bullish of its Bandar Seri Sendayan (Negri Sembilan) and Bandar Seri Impian (Johor) townships, plans to expand its land bank in FY20.

“Going forward, we would continue to explore more land-banking opportunities especially in the immediate vicinity of our existing townships to capitalise on their ready infrastructure and vibrancy.

“This also ensures we maintain sufficient land bank to support long-term sustainability and growth, ” he added.