Booking.com

Booking.com

Favorite Links

Friday, June 28, 2019

SI研究:云顶新加坡 – 非理性抛售带来进场机会




刘豪正
2019年 06月 27日
热门股票

本地上市综合度假胜地(IR)营运商云顶新加坡(Genting Singapore)最近似乎不大受投资者欢迎。自2019年初,云顶新加坡的股票下跌了差不多10%至每股0.880元,后者是自2018年以来没有出现过的水平。

虽然今年对环球股市来说并不是一个最好的年头,但海峡时报指数年初至今依然取得4.8%的回报。很明显,这显示云顶新加坡是海指其中一只表现欠佳的成份股。以过去五年的股价表现来看,云顶新加坡的负34%回报与海指在同一期间的负2.5%回报相比,似乎显得更差劲。

不过,以目前股价而言,我们认为抛售可能有点过度,让这只股的价位现在甚具吸引力。具体来说,对那些有耐性的长期投资者而言,我们认为这只股的潜在上涨空间备受瞩目。
近期抛售因对RWS翻新计划过于审慎

除了环球股票均受到来自贸易战的压力外,云顶新加坡的股价最近回落可能也受到最近两个消息影响:赌场税变动及圣淘沙名胜世界(Resorts World Sentosa,以下简称RWS)重新发展。这两个消息均在今年4月份公布。

首先,新加坡政府将在2022年推出新的赌场分级式(tiered)税务架构,为期10年。这里不深入解说新的税制,但赌场营运商的总赌博收入在新税制下,必定令其盈利力受损。雪上加霜的是,新加坡的两个IR必须承诺注入新资金来发展娱乐景点,否则将会面对更高的税额。

税额提高当然不是一个好消息,但云顶新加坡已承诺投资45亿元来重新发展RWS。因此,我们肯定集团不会因为不遵守投资承诺而受到更高税额的冲击。不过,市场对集团作出的大额资本开支及在翻新工程至2024年完工前出现的不稳定短期回报采取谨慎态度。

从之后的时序来看,2022年开始需要支付较高税款,而大约在2023年,资本开支将达致高峰,难怪投资者实在有点担忧。不过,我们认为市场对度假胜地扩张带来的优势有点低估。

翻新计划的部份细则已经有了大纲。大体上,RWS扩张后,休闲和娱乐空间的新总面积(GFA)将添加16万4,000平方米(增幅为50%)。RWS的新发展项目包括扩充享负盛名的新加坡环球影城(Universal Studios Singapore);SEA海洋馆将扩充及打造为一个全新的新加坡海洋馆(Singapore Oceanarium);扩大会展(Meetings, Incentives, Conferences and Exhibitions)设施;以及添加1,100个酒店客房。

值得一提的是,新加坡政府为“酬谢”两家赌场营运商的付出,同意把它们的独家经营权延长至2030年尾。此外,RWS在完成翻新工程后,为回报其作出的投资,将可选择把赌场面积增加500平方米。
竞投日本IR难以预测

云顶已正式宣布参与日本大阪IR的征集项目概念(Request-For-Concept)竞投。之前,投资者指望日本IR的竞投是这只股的潜在催化剂。不过,随着RWS翻新、加上新加坡的税率提高,云顶新加坡要应付两个雄心勃勃的扩张计划令投资者对其财务实力的信心减低。

管理层估计,日本IR的建筑工程很可能最早只会在2021年中或2022年才开始,融资方面可能直至2022年才需要。不过,这样看来,日本和RWS项目还是会重叠。假设日本IR需要五年时间完成,投资者看到的是,云顶新加坡直至2027年将面对庞大的资本开支,然后才迎来大幅度的收入进账。

不过,到目前为止,管理层已平息了有关集团计划发附加股的谣传,起码不会在现阶段进行。至于最新公布的1Q19业绩,云顶新加坡坐拥42亿元现金,而总贷款只得9亿3,650万元,意味着集团处于33亿元净现金状况,让其可以先来动用。

至于融资时间表,最早的大型资本开支估计是为RWS扩张,并在1Q20出现的10亿元土地成本。随着云顶新加坡每年从营运而来的现金流超过10亿元,单单是RWS扩张的资本开支应可利用内部资金来应付,尽管考虑到税率提高及假设集团维持其4亿2,000万元的派息后。

我们也得悉,集团在2019年4月10日自愿预付6亿8,000万元在其集体高级信贷设施下的欠款。此举让云顶新加坡一旦成功竞标日本IR后拥有更大的借贷空间。
非理性抛售带来进场机会

证实云顶新加坡有能力应付两个雄心勃勃的扩张计划后,我们认为近期的抛售大致上是不合理,并让我们得出最后的论点。

目前为止,日本政府何时会颁发IR执照还未有定案。与此同时,云顶新加坡在大阪IR的竞投将与6个显赫的IR营运商正面竞争,包括拉斯维加斯金沙(Las Vegas Sands),这意味着集团可能无缘为日本IR出资。另一方面,如果云顶新加坡获颁执照,并因为增长业务而变成净负债,为何这会被看成不利情况?

还有,尽管总赌博收入的税率提高,新加坡IR依然享受全球的最低税率。因此,我们肯定云顶新加坡依然拥有竞争优势。

至于RWS的重新发展项目,我们认为投资者应把这个扩张计划视作为云顶新加坡增长业务的具体发展,因而应对此感到乐观。在接下来几年,长期投资者可能会为云顶新加坡的目前估值(14倍本益比及4%股息获益率)感到高兴。

向并购天王学管理/黄云浩

2019年6月28日



从事服装业的表弟不久前传了一个关于柳井正的新闻。谁是柳井正?日本迅销集团的总裁。什么迅销?在各大购物中心都有其踪迹的“优衣库”(UNIQLO)就是迅销集团里头主要的公司。

那则新闻说到柳井正很喜欢读传奇企业和商人的传记。这些传记里记载的商业案例研究,成为柳井正的准商业经验。其中有谈到他很喜欢《季宁谈管理》一书。这本书让他读了一遍又一遍。

岀自好奇,笔者很有兴趣想知道这是一本怎样的书,能让这位以服装业称霸日本成为首富的柳井正读了又读。

终于在电子湾找到一本二手书,花了些时间来阅读。这一看不得了,原来这位季宁先生 (Harold Geneen)在60、70年代可算是一个叱咤风云的人物。

在他所掌舵的国际电话电报公司(简称ITT)的18年里(1959-1977),就曾经创下连续58个季度(14年半)的盈利增长。

而且在他管理的18个年头里,做了约350项在80个不同国家的收购合并计划。

此外,ITT在巅峰时期,列位美国财富500 (Fortune 500) 第9大公司,只排在当时的6大石油公司,以及通用电气(GE)与IBM之后。

不说不知,岀现在马来西亚七十年代的“集团”(Conglomerate)一词的风潮由来(个中代表有昵称 “阿妹”的马联集团(MUI Group)),也是因为季宁带起的并购风。

另外,跨国公司(Multinational Corporations,MNCs) 一词,也是因为ITT 在他努力扩张之下,在全球八十多个国家投资有成而成的词。

当然在此书里头,季宁也分享了集团风潮、跨国公司这些词语背后的原因。为何他会走上以收购合并各式各类的生意来壮大这条路?

收购壮大

原因是因为那时的ITT在美国本土的盈利贡献少过15%。

另外85%的盈利暴露了ITT在其他国家所面对的主权风险,尤其是像ITT这类控制电话网的公司。

所以,我们才了解到为什么某些政府在电信公司股权里拥有所谓的“黄金股权”(golden share),以提防有人通过控制电话网这类战略资产,进行破坏国家的勾当。

因此,季宁希望可以将美国本土的盈利贡献提升到50%。可惜,ITT 所处的行业(电话设备)没办法给到这方面的增长,所以收购是达到目标唯一方法。

当年被ITT并购的生意,包括了AVIS 租车服务、Sheraton酒店集团、个人信贷公司、面包制造、化学原产品等等。

全部行业虽然都风马牛不相及,但在治军甚严的季宁带领下,ITT这庞然大物依然在很长的时间里的每个季度持续增长。



人才决定公司长远成败

这里头有着什么样的管理经验,可以让我们借鉴?

第一点,季宁认为管理层是最重要的。

身为管理层的一名经理,必须持有一种信仰,这种信仰叫做情感承诺。

有此信仰的经理,不管在意识还是潜意识里,他都将管理当为已任,全力以赴,如果他认定那些事必须要做,可不计较时间上的付出。

第二,本身也是hardwork(勤干)信徒的季宁,不相信休息。他举例,同样资质的专业经理,一个一天做8小时,另外一个一天12小时。

15年过后,那个一天做12小时的已经比那位一天做8小时的累积岀多7年有余的经验,无形中加快他的成长。

管理层必需管理

只有勤干才能让人在千变万化的生意世界里站稳。对季宁来说,工作是一件能够令人感觉愉快的事。成功克服困难的喜悦,更是笔墨难于形容。

第三,一家公司的表现可以走多远,全看它的管理层对生意的管理态度。

一间公司的总裁,如果在管理上假手于人,所做的事只是为了达到更高的个人名声效益,久而久之就会变成在管理上有所松懈。

因此,他一而再,再而三的强调,“管理层必需管理”(Management must manage)。他也用球队的胜负来比喻一间公司管理层的好坏。

一个好的球队,不可能每场球赛都会赢球。但是如果他能在10场比赛中赢得8场,该球队就会被公认为好的球队了。公司管理层的道理也是如此。

此书除了结集他过去管理ITT 成功与失败的经验,更多时候参杂了他对人性的透彻了解。

对他而言,人才是决定一家公司长远成败的主要因素。商业模式、护城河,这些一切都需要优秀的管理层,没日没夜不停地想进步并超越竞争对手。这些人不多,因为没有多少人会想牺牲自己的时间在工作上。

最后,正如季宁所总结的,“所有的管理,包括一个人对生命的管理就这一句:决定你想做什么,然后开始做。”

不管什么东西,都是做了才有,不是有了才做。投资也是一样。

http://www.enanyang.my/news/20190628/向并购天王学管理黄云浩/

閱讀筆記:《季寧談管理》你必須從終點開始,並且用盡心力去做能到達終點的



《季寧談管理》(Managing) -- 這是一本讓我為之振奮、如醍醐灌頂般的經營管理書籍,深感榮幸能夠讀到這本好書。

季寧(Harold Geneen, 1910-1997)為紐約上市公司 ITT Corporation (International Telephone and Telegraph Corp.) 前董事長及執行長,他在位的 10 年間將該公司營收由每年不到 8 億美金提升至 170 億美金,並透過一系列的併購將營運由電信擴展至保險、旅館、房地產及其它產業之跨國集團。到了一九七七年季寧退休時,營業額與利潤都大約成長了二十倍,並且連續十四年半的時間,每年的成長超過百分之十。

《季寧談管理》這本書是季寧從事管理工作五十年的現身說法,他首先提出管理的G(Geneen)理論,不能只靠一種理論來管理一家企業; 接著指出企業管理的三句箴言; 還有要在工作中追求經驗,因為有了經驗,鈔票自然會來。季寧的哲學就是:先決定你想做的事,然後就開始做。

在閱讀此書時,我一邊閱讀也在一邊思考,也在與自己不斷的對話,也會與另一半一起討論,而對於自己所經營的店舖管理上,季寧的一些理論與想法對我真的是受益良多。在這些理論與想法中,我特別喜歡季寧所分享的這句話,這是一句讓我反覆的念誦、思考、與銘記在心的一段話:「讀書的時候,你會從頭讀到尾。但是經營企業正好相反,你必須從終點開始,並且用盡心力去做能到達終點的事。」

很高興能夠讀到一本值得細讀、且反覆思考的好書。在此把此書的一些佳言紀錄下來,因為所讀的是翻譯的版本,特別找到英文原文與中文翻譯一起共讀。另外,我也很喜歡季寧為此書所寫的序,簡短卻深具啟發,寫此文時,也在心中期許著自己,也能帶著這些具有正面力量與意義的理念,一步一步往目標邁進。

《季寧談管理》原著自序:

企業千頭萬緒,但卻可以用平衡表(balance sheet)來表示。企業是一個變化多端的生命體,有時候巍然聳立,有時候揉成一團。企業的靈魂是由需求、慾望、貪婪和喜悅,再參合自私、犧牲和超越物質報酬的個人貢獻所鍊製而成的。它能滿足許多男男女女的抱負,並且是我們獲取物質的安全感與享受的來源。

對我個人來說,經營企業是一種迷人的、不斷自我要求的,並帶有創造性的過程,值得列為高層次的藝術,也值得為了自我和社會,以及為了產生最大的滿足感,把一切完全投入。我經歷的所有的一切--而且我也十分瞭解。

我總是辯稱沒有才智不凡之士。企業裡最偉大的成就,事實上甚至生命裡所有最偉大的成就,都是由極平凡的人士完成的。沒有所謂的天才。平凡人的不平凡表現,造就了企業界以及其他領域的領袖人物。

因此,如果天降大任於某一平凡人身上,使他得悉我們生命當中的一、兩項基本真理,他就有義務把所學到的,貢獻給別人。

我是秉持這一信念來寫這一本書。深願讀者能根據我個人的經驗,而對企業之經營得到若干啟發與真理。

《季寧談管理》佳言摘錄

◎ G(Geneen)理論: 你不能只根據一項理論,管理一家企業或任何其他事情。(You cannot run a business, or anything else, on a theory.)

◎ 企業管理課程的三句箴言: 讀書的時候,你會從頭讀到尾。但是經營企業正好相反,你必須從終點開始,並且用盡心力去做能到達終點的事。(You read a book from beginning to end. You run a business the opposite way. You start with the end, and then you do everything you must to reach it. )

◎ 在企業世界裡,每一個人都會得到兩種報酬: 鈔票與經驗。有了經驗,鈔票自然會來。(In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins: cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come alter. )

◎ 每家公司都有兩種組織結構: 一種是繪成圖表的正式結構,另一種是組織內男男女女的日常動態關係。(Every company has two organizational structures: The formal one is written on the charts; the other is the everyday relationship of the men and women in the organization.)

◎ 管理階層必須管理。(Management must manage!)

◎ 領導不能教,只能學。(Leadership cannot really be taught. It can only be learned.)

◎ 影響企業主管工作最糟糕的疾病,不是一般人所想的「酒精中毒」,「而是自我中毒」。(The worst disease whicn can afflict business executives in their work is not, as popularly supposed, alcoholism; it's egotism.)

◎ 我覺得商界裡一個永遠不變的準則是文字是文字、解釋是解釋、承諾是承諾 – 但只有成果才是真實。(I think it is an immutable law in business that words are words, explanations are explanations, promises are promises – but only performance is reality.)

◎ 激發人們達成優越表現的最佳方式是透過你做的每件事及你每天的態度來讓他們相信你是全心全意的支持他們。(The best way to inspire people to superior performance is to convince them by everything you do and by your everyday attitude that you are wholeheartedly supporting them.)

(原文寫於2013/6/10)

2017/9/14

重讀四年前寫的這一篇閱讀筆記感受非常深刻。

「你必須從終點開始,並且用盡心力去做能到達終點的事。」

這句話那時讀到就像當頭棒喝般震撼,

但我功力尚淺,至今仍持續在實務經驗試誤學習體會中,

給自己打打氣,繼續加油!!!

譚新強﹕G20:一個極厭倦、由特朗普自編自導自演的真人秀

文章日期:2019年6月28日

【明報專訊】又到了大阪G20,極厭倦這種峰會。能否達成協議,某程度上,是個兩念之差的問題。怎可作出理性猜測?

我當然無份參與G20峰會,但有朋友邀請去參加一些G20旁邊的其他會議。但今周太忙,無法出席。即使去了,也不見得有甚麼內幕料。

中美峰會只剩兩天,但仍有很多moving parts。會面時間和形式都仍在變,本以為又是如阿根廷那一次的晚餐會議,氣氛可以較輕鬆。但今早見到消息,已改為周六早上會議,安排在特朗普與沙特王儲穆罕默德(Mohammed bin Salman)的早餐會之後。 當然特朗普抵埗後,曾先要向「老闆」普京滙報。

上次G20,沙特異見記者卡舒吉(Jamal Khashoggi)剛在土耳其被血腥謀殺沒多久,穆罕默德在峰會被大多數人冷淡對待,記憶中只有普京跟他擊掌Hi-Five。只半年,一切都忘記了,特朗普樂意跟他共進早餐。早前更有傳聞,庫什納(Jared Kushner)曾致電MbS,催促他快點「處理掉」派去土耳其的暗殺小組,包括戲劇性超過占士邦片內大壞蛋的Bone Doctor!暗殺記者已夠令人心寒,但教唆「處理掉」暗殺小組,更冷血。數個月前見過庫什納一面,有點富二代的高傲,但尚算文質彬彬,看不出這小子如此心狠手辣,果然是做「大事」的人,不枉老爸捐獻250萬美元,搞他入哈佛。

見到一幀令人非常不安的照片。一對來自薩爾瓦多(El Salvador)的年輕父女,在偷渡到美國途中,不幸在里奧格蘭德河(Rio Grande)中淹死。女兒不到兩歲,爸爸用自己T恤包着保護她,但沒用,最後可憐一齊伏屍在淺水中。家鄉窮困,黑幫橫行,走投無路,但美國又鐵石心腸,加緊邊防,結果越來越來難民被捕和在偷渡中死亡。如有人想請求美國幫手「伸張正義」,Good Luck!
中美爭鬥 如火如荼

傳聞中美雙方都有誠意在這峰會達成協議,但要全面成功,不容易,而特朗普好大喜功,當然想扮英雄,拯救已決裂的談判。但最少一個停火協議是有機會的,或許暫停對剩下來3000多億美元中國貨加關稅。據聞,即使達不成任何協議,稅率亦將略被調低至10%。這不是甚麼大發慈悲,只是安撫美國消費者,尤其特朗普的中低層票源。

即使在貿易上能達成停火協議,其他戰線,尤其科技,仍打得如火如荼。華為是談判中一隻棋子,我認為美國未必會,亦不可能全面封殺華為,要完全撤回所有技術轉移限制,更不可能。即使特朗普願意用放寬華為Ban,作為貿易談判交換條件之一,但在沒有證據下,他已把華為提升至國安層面,那麼如何這麼容易以增購譬如大豆來交換取消華為Ban?況且除華為,美國近日加碼,把更多中國企業放進實體清單,戰况毫無休止跡象。

金融戰更只剛揭幕。第一步是企圖阻止中國企業再往美國上市集資,甚至迫使已上市的下架退市。這一招當然可能反而幫了中國,本來就不想太多好企業外逃,亦正努力發展科創板,香港亦希望分一杯羮。第二招較毒,參議員Rubio等人企圖逼退休基金等投資者,停止投資在中國,甚至寫信給MSCI,詢問為何把A股納入指數,企圖逼指數公司把中國股票和債券重新踢出來。第三招,且已出手,最嚴重亦最危險,就是以違反北韓或伊朗制裁為藉口,禁止某些金融機構與美國銀行來往,甚至不準使用SWIFT和其他美元支付系統。

如美國全面禁運所有芯片和其他高科技產品,或全面禁止中國使用美元支付系統,或甚至針對中國擁有的美國國債,作選擇性違約(應該是違法的,但不等如不可能),這就已距離正式宣戰不遠矣。 短期內我不預期這些極端情况會出現,但必須想前幾步,明白事情發展的所有可能性。

其實還有一條長遠更重要的戰線亦已掀起,就是文化和意識形態的鬥爭。本來人民和文化交流是增進溝通、了解、友誼,以及維持和平的最好方法,但中美學術交流已嚴重受損。近日先後見到耶魯和MIT校長,分別發出公開信,警告近日中國學生和學者受到政府歧視和留難,嚴重影響這些最高學府吸納全球精英的傳統,亦破壞美國長期最大的優勢。除此,減少文化交流,對中國發展也有不良影響,雙方誤解加深,更對全球安全都有影響。

意識形態鬥爭亦在加劇。中國企圖擁抱自由貿易,這塊面積很細的道德高地,特朗普亦努力破壞西方聯盟和自由民主傳統,但對不起,西方人,整體來說,仍是無法認同中國的體制。
短期樂觀 因太多人悲觀

投資上,其實短期內我稍為傾向樂觀,只是因為太多人悲觀了,街上亦確見過鮮血,怎可不尊重投資界的至理名言呢?但這只是短期炒作,並不代表長期睇法。

有些人樂觀的原因是特朗普需要連任,所以不可容許經濟衰退,甚至忍受不了股市大跌,擔心流失選票。這當然有一定道理,亦是近日他再次開火狂轟聯儲局的原因。在平時,當然任何人,包括美國人,都不想股市大跌,經濟受損。但要小心一點,如特朗普成功繼續揚起民粹和國家主義,且煽動仇視中國情緒,美國人或許也願意忍受與中國鬥爭的傷害。不要以為只有中國人才能吃苦,雖然中國人仍較窮,但其實大多數人為獨生子女,嬌生慣養,又多年來未經歷過戰火磨練(好事)。美國長年打仗,一般人非常愛國,極少人移民外國,即使周末運動如美式足球都非常暴力,所以如覺得擊敗中國是有價值的,忍受熊市的能力是絕對有的,亦未必一定損害特朗普選情。It is all a matter of spin(看你怎樣解畫)。
美伊衝突 美防長缺席

G20當然並非唯一重要的事情,只是全世界的注意力被綁架了。我更關心的事情很多,包括全人類,無分國籍,共同面對的氣候變化問題,和全球安全問題。

只想特別提醒大家留意一下伊朗近日異常緊張的局勢。中美關係可能是主菜,幸而尚未到劍拔弩張的地步,但上周美伊曾只距離正式開戰十分鐘,要記得,伊朗也極可能已擁有核武。

伊朗擊落一隻美國的偵察drone(無人機),據說特朗普在國家安全顧問博爾頓(John Bolton)、國務卿蓬佩奧(Mike Pompeo)和CIA局長哈斯佩爾(Gina Haspel)等超鷹派煽動下,本已決定反擊,準備進行空襲,但到最後關頭,特朗普以將殺害超過150人,力度太大超過合理比例為由,取消行動,是好事。首先想指出一點,國防部長在哪裡呢?我提過,自從馬蒂斯(Jim Mattis)將軍辭職後,美國國防部長一職一直懸空,只由沙納漢(Patrick Shanahan)充當代理部長。怎可能一個超級大國,超過半年都找不到一個正式國防部長,極不尋常也極危險。我認識的前國防局長卡特(Ashton Carter),有40年國防部經驗,他說不太認識沙納漢,更大鑊的是不認識任何與他相熟的人,意思即是出身於波音的沙納漢,根本不夠資格。後來特朗普終提名沙納漢坐正,但前幾天沙納漢自動退出,據說因為有多次對前妻和子女家暴的紀錄。物以類聚,特朗普選人是否眼光獨到?

特朗普是否真的網開一面,免開殺戒?據說伊朗也選擇不擊落另一載有35名美軍的戰機。我相信特朗普真不想正式開戰,更需要集中精神,應付中國。但他其實非常喜愛進行drone attacks(無人機襲擊),在任兩年,進行了超過2200次,比奧巴馬任內八年的1800多次還要多,估計無辜平民死傷過萬。近月他更以不應讓CIA分心為由,取消了平民死傷報告的要求。
侵侵形勢錯判 故弄玄虛

特朗普錯判伊朗形勢,既退出奧巴馬年代的核協議,伊朗更不受限制發展核武,但又未能阻止伊朗在中東的軍事行動,結果逐漸走近戰爭邊緣。唯一好處是托住油價,今年美國頁岩油產量大增,幸而沙特大幅每日減產125萬桶,加上伊朗緊張形勢,Brent油價才維持在60美元以上。特朗普既不想油價狂升,但也不想失去石油公司的支持。

第三個不喜歡G20,這類故弄玄虛劇目的原因是,所謂危機、劇情峰迴路轉、死線、cliffhanger、和解的劇本,不停循環但永無結局,都只是由特朗普自編、自導、自演的一場秀。根本跟他從前創造的Apprentice,和曾經參與的WWE摔角等節目的三流劇本,分別不大。但當然,不幸的是,現在這個遊戲以全球政經加安全作賭注,比任何電視節目都高無限倍,如玩輸了,代價可以是全球經濟衰退、崩潰,甚至世界末日。
侮辱各國 不滿漸生

更惱人的是其他人,包括各國領袖,投資者,基本上全人類,在某一程度上,都被迫跟著他玩這個接近毫無意義,且非常危險的遊戲。即使如安倍般,非常難看地對特朗普卑躬屈膝,處處遷就都沒用,他照樣隨意侮辱和攻擊日本,一點情面都不留。對待德國,加拿大,墨西哥等國的態度,就更不用說了。對中國本來稍為尊重,但現在也已不再客氣,不斷說中國每月繳交數以十億計關稅,經濟捱不了多久,極需要和渴望達成協議。

歐洲也想脫離美元魔爪,另起爐灶,發展歐元支付系統,國防上,德、日等國也在考慮加強軍備。中國想利用一帶一路,發展自己的勢力圈,科技上更當然想自力更生。這些發展都極不容易,且需時甚久。

我早已看厭這場秀,你呢?

中環資產投資行政總裁
[譚新強 中環新譚]

Thursday, June 27, 2019

Top Glove - Watch Latex Costs

Author:   |    Publish date: 


Positive Mismatch 4QFY19E; HOLD With Higher Target Price

  • Sequential earnings could improve substantially on higher latex glove ASPs and seasonally lower latex costs. Although we maintain our forecasts, we raise our Target Price by 9% to MYR4.85 on a higher CY20E P/E target P/E of 26x from 24x; This is in view of its rising margin/ROE prospects due to Aspion’s surgical gloves and inclusion in FBMKLCI 30 since Dec 2018.
  • Our new target is still 10% below our 29x target for Hartalega due to TOP GLOVE’s lower margins/ROEs.
  • Maintain HOLD as we believe its positives have been priced in.

Stronger Earnings Ahead

  • Top Glove's 3QFY19 net profit, down 29% q-o-q and 37% y-o-y, was hit by high latex costs and intense competition. However, we expect earnings to improve substantially in 4QFY19E as latex-glove ASPs have already been raised to reflect the higher latex costs while latex costs are expected to be seasonally lower.
  • Additionally, new capacity from F32-33 (+6% to 63.9b pcs in Jun 2019) may lift sales volumes. Plant utilisation is high at 90%, excluding F32-33.

Delays to Plant Expansion

  • Expansion of another eight plants has been delayed by 3-6 months. Management attributes this to delays in construction and gas-supply issues.
  • Separately, Top Glove recently launched its new nitrile biodegradable glove which could yield better margins as its ASP is 10% above those of normal examination gloves.
  • Our earnings model assumes sales volume growth of 14%/11%/11% for FY19-21E.

Limited Benefits From US Trade Tiff

  • We think Top Glove may not benefit much from a potential 25% tariff on China’s medical gloves. Top Glove has a bigger presence in non-US markets, which may be disrupted if China diverts its gloves from the US to these markets.
  • It may also not benefit much from a potential removal of Thailand/Indonesia from the US GSP list.
  • Non-medical rubber gloves produced by Top Glove’s factories in Malaysia are not substantial, at < 10% of its sales volume.
Source: Maybank Research - 27 Jun 2019

TRADING BEYOND THE MATRIX: BOOK NOTES

November 25, 2013

This post contains my personal notes from the book, Trading Beyond the Matrix by Van Tharp.

Van Tharp has a mini version of the book that is available for free. You can get access to this mini e-book here. In this mini e-book, the preface and the first chapter can be accessed in full. You can also access the table of contents here.

The five areas that Tharp talks about in this book are: Tharp Think Concepts, Transforming yourself, Developing a personal business handbook for trading/investing, assessment of your preparation for trading, and understanding your trading mistakes.

Tharp Think is the essential trading and psychological principles of trading the market according to Van Tharp. I have summarised this below:

The four primary rules

1. The first new rule is that trading is as much a profession as any other.
2. The second new rule is that trading reflects human performance just as much as any top athletic endeavour. You must understand that you are responsible for the results you get.
3. The third new rule is that objectives are important. Further more, you achieve your objectives through position sizing strategies.
4. The fourth new rule is that trading/investing is all about probability and reward-to-risk ratios under specific market conditions. When you understand these rules and the market conditions, you can use statistics to predict what your performance will be under similar market conditions in the future.

The four new rules say that great performance is a function of what the market gives you, your system and you.

The six key parts of Tharp Think

1. Learning to trade is hard work, but it can be taught

  • Successful trading can be modeled and taught to other people.
  • Learning to trade well requires as much work/education as any other profession.


2. Knowing yourself

  • You need to find a trading system that fits you.
  • In order to accomplish that, you must know yourself: your values, strengths, weaknesses, parts, significant beliefs(spiritual, self, market, system), trading edges and trading weaknesses
  • You can only trade your beliefs about the markets, not the markets themselves. Thus, you should know and understand your beliefs and whether or not they are useful.
  • System development is 100 percent (1) beliefs, (2) mental states, and (3) mental strategies. Thus it is 100 percent psychology.
  • You must know your personal criteria for being able to trade a system with confidence.


3. Mistakes

  • A mistake means not following your rules. If you don’t have rules, everything you do is a mistake.
  • It is much better to trade a lower-scoring SQN system that fits you than a higher-scoring SQN system that doesn’t fit you.
  • You are responsible for everything that happens to you. When you understand this, you can correct your mistakes. We call this respond-ability.
  • Repeating the same mistake over and over again is self-sabotage.
  • A trader who makes one mistake in 10 trades is 90 percent efficient; that 10 percent drop in efficiency could be enough to make him/her a losing trader.


4. Objectives and Position Sizing Strategies

  • Fifty percent of system development is thinking through and clearly defining a set of written objectives.Those objectives should address your desired gain, your maximum acceptable drawdown, and the relative importance of each.
  • You need to design core objectives that fit you.
  • There are potentially as many objectives as there are traders.
  • You meet your objectives through position sizing strategies.
  • The overwhelming majority of your performance is due to your position sizing strategy and your efficiency as a trader.
  • You must know your mission/purpose in life and incorporate that into your trading.
  • You need to know your financial freedom number (passive income per month less monthly expenses). When it’s positive, you are financially free.


5. Probability and reward-to risk assessment

  • Never open a position without knowing the initial risk.
  • Define your profits and losses as a multiple of your initial risk (R-multiples).
  • Limit your losses to 1R or less.
  • Make sure your profits on the average are bigger than 1R.
  • Never take a trade unless the reward-to-risk ratio of that trade is at least 2:1 and perhaps even 3:1.
  • Your trading system is a distribution of R-multiples.
  • When you understand #6, you should be able to hear/see a description of a system and know the kind of R-multiple distribution it would generate.
  • The mean of that distribution is the expectancy, and it tells you what you’ll make on the average trade. It should be a positive number.
  • The mean, standard deviation, and number of trades determine the SQN score for your system.
  • Your SQN score tells you how easy it will be to meet your objectives using position sizing strategies. Other than that, your system has nothing to do with meeting your objectives.
  • Systems are usually named after their setups, which are usually based on some attempt to predict future prices. Prediction has nothing to do with trading well.
  • System performance has to do with controlling risk and managing the position through your exits.


6. Systems and Market Type

  • There are at least six different market types. You should understand how your system will perform in each of them. 1 . Bull volatile 2. Bull quiet 3. Sideways volatile 4. Sideways quiet 5. Bear quiet (almost doesn’t exist) 6. Bear volatile.
  • It’s easy to design a Holy Grail system (one with a high System Quality Number score) for any one market type listed above.
  • It’s insane to expect that trading system to work in all market types.
  • The biggest mistake people make is to try to design one system to fit all markets.
  • You should only trade your system in the market type for which it was designed.
  • Good traders understand the big picture, know how to measure it, and become aware when the situation changes.
  • Media and academia know none of this and will not teach it to you.
  • For each market type, you need a large sample size to estimate what the population is for that system.
  • You also need to do Monte Carlo simulations with your system’s R-multiples to get a better idea of what to expect in the future. This will work if the sample you draw from is similar to the population.


The psychological rules of Tharp Think

  • You are responsible for everything that happens to you. When you understand this, you can correct your mistakes. We call this “respondability.”
  • When you are not committed, you tend to run into obstacles and do a dance with them instead of going around them and moving on to your committed goal.
  • If you are not committed to doing the necessary work on yourself and on your trading, you will not succeed.
  • Do what you love. If that doesn’t include trading, you should not be a trader.
  • You are a crowd inside, and that crowd is who you think you are.
  • Parts have good intentions, but they start doing their own thing and cause conflict.
  • You can eliminate that conflict through parts negotiation or TfM( transformational meditation).
  • You must understand your identity and spiritual beliefs and determine whether or not they’re useful.
  • You can change any belief that isn’t useful simply by understanding that it isn’t useful— unless that belief has stored charge in it.
  • If the belief has stored charge in it, you need to remove the charge through feeling release.
  • You need to continually monitor and work on yourself to trade well.
  • When you discover a major issue blocking you, you need to know how to solve the issue and avoid doing a dance with it.
  • Your internal guidance is your best friend. Learn to use it.
  • But don’t mistake “into wishing” for intuition.


The 12 tasks of trading are:

  • Self-analysis to determine if you are okay to trade.
  • Mental rehearsal to prevent mistakes.
  • Daily focus to point you toward your goals.
  • Developing a low-risk idea( which is done way before the trading starts)
  • Stalking, moving down to a shorter time frame to lower the risk even more.
  • Action that requires commitment and no thought.
  • Monitoring to keep the risk low.
  • Aborting if the trade goes against you.
  • Taking profits when the reason for the trade ends.
  • A daily debriefing to monitor and prevent future mistakes.
  • Being grateful for whatever went right.
  • Doing a periodic review to make sure everything is working.


Tharp also talks a lot about transformation and this part of the book is almost spiritual. Apart from the Tharp psychological principles which I have discussed above, the other important concepts according to me were as follows:

1. The relationship between beliefs and experience can be seen and understood through the figure below:



2. There is also a belief hierarchy which is as follows:





  • Spiritual belief: Your overall philosophy in life and how the universe is organised.
  • Identity belief: Who a person thinks he or she is and what they think is one’s mission in life.
  • Value belief: What we think is important to us
  • Capability belief: What you believe you can or cannot do.
  • Behavioural belief: Your beliefs about your behaviour
  • Environmental beliefs: Your beliefs regarding what is and your attempts to organize observations about the world.


3. How to change beliefs using the belief examination paradigm:

  • Recognise the belief.
  • Is it a deliberately chosen belief or did someone give it to me? Who gave it to me?
  • What does this belief get me into? What happens when I have this belief?
  • What does this belief get me out of? Who would I be without this belief?
  • Is this belief useful?
  • If the belief is not useful, you can change it , if the belief does not have any charge( like fear, anger or negative emotion). If it has a charge, you have to release the charge before you can change the belief.


4. Everything has the meaning you give it.

5. Accepting our feelings, our creations and understanding oneness of everything leads to peace.

6. We are all a crowd of conflicting parts and resolving this is essential for peace.

7. In transformational meditation(TfM), we offer all our parts to our spiritual self and ask them to be integrated with it. If they do not want to be integrated, we discard them.

8. The nine steps to mastering oneself are:

  1. Learn that you are a crowd inside.
  2. Get 25 to 30 identity-level beliefs from each part.
  3. Do a belief examination paradigm on each of your beliefs.
  4. Learn about projection and your shadow self.
  5. Work on the charge through feeling release exercises like those in the Sedona Method. The main thing is to really feel the feelings and then they will dissolve.
  6. Do a life review and list the beliefs that come up, examine them and release non useful beliefs.
  7. Make a list of your problems and find the root cause( beliefs and feelings)
  8. Get in touch with your internal guidance.
  9. Work to eliminate parts, or at least get them to work together with you.


9. The ultimate aim is to transform our consciousness. Some levels of consciousness are shown in the figure below:


10. The transformational model is shown in the figure below:


11. Seven key lessons to do things effectively:

  1. Take personal responsibility.
  2. Deal with thoughts, emotions and actions on a regular basis.
  3. Know that your thoughts are not yours.
  4. Trust your inner guidance.
  5. Understand that the world is perfect.
  6. Know your purpose
  7. Reinvent yourself


The rest of the areas can be accessed through the following documents:

  • Develop a personal business handbook for trading and investing: This can be accessed here.
  • Assess your preparation for trading: The checklist for this can be accessed here.
  • Recommended books for further reading can be accessed here.
  • Key words used by Van Tharp and their meanings can be found here.
  • The reference notes also contain valuable material and references for further study. You can access it here.
The Van Tharp website has a lot of useful materials. Browse through it and you will find a lot of free gems and diamonds.

https://thetaoofwealth.wordpress.com/2013/11/25/trading-beyond-the-matrix-book-notes/

[转贴] PRLEXUS教会我的事 - 蛤蜊先生

2019年6月26日星期三

早期有提到说,PRLEXUS是蛤蜊人生中买的第一支股,看回记录,当时候买入PRLEXUS的时间点是在2015年1月,股价约1.49。

当时候,作为新手,买入的原因很简单,与MAGNI比较后,PRLEXUS的本益比更便宜,成长空间更大。

在当年出口主题当道,加上美元快速走强,因此散户,甚至庄家们,都疯狂推荐出口股,出口主题的公司被大家充分挖掘,只要稍微涉及到些出口业务,基本上股价都会在那年内暴涨几十%,甚至开翻。

蛤蜊当时候是菜鸟,半年时间内,在2.1左右将PRLEXUS卖出,尝到了投资股票赚钱的甜头,让自己在投资路上增添了些信心。

但数年后的今天,出口主题陨落,许多涉及出口的公司,股价往南,且一去不复返,充分显现了主题循环股的性质。

PRLEXUS在2016年发附加股后,股价一路向南,从最高峰在2块左右,跌至如今的51仙,跌幅高达75%。究其原因,都是因为业绩不理想,已经连续第八个季度倒退,而且最新季度业绩也录得亏损。

反观MAGNI,虽然股价也是倒退许多,从7块,跌到如今的4.9左右,跌幅也有30%。但公司近来业绩稳定,股息派发也恢复正常。

因此,MAGNI股价也从底部3.7左右,回涨至4.9。反观PRLEXUS依然在底部徘徊,此次业绩出炉,或许会继续探底也说不定。

其实,这故事告诉我们些什么?(也方便自己反思)

第一,业绩持续两年没有改善,如果依然秉持长期投资的理念,我想最后会亏剩一条底裤。

第二,长期投资的公司,最好是有深厚的行业护城河,并且是领域内的龙头。

第三,有派息的公司,跌幅没那么大,而且只要业绩复苏,反弹更快。

第四,炒主题的公司,要懂得卖。主题过了,也就打回原形了

第五,err想不到了,有谁想到的可以在下面留言。

总言之,蛤蜊发现好的公司,业绩会持续上涨,就算短期有些退步,但隔一两个季度就会回来。如果业绩没有回来的,就要好好检视是不是哪里出问题了。



发帖者 蛤蜊先生 时间: 上午3:11:00

http://andersonleee0590.blogspot.com/2019/06/prlexus.html

[转贴] 丛林新贵 - 水星

Wednesday, June 26, 2019

在一个丛林里,有一头“小猪”进入了范围而引起兽类们的注意。

不久,“小猪”的体积迅速壮大,鼻子也非常长。

丛林里第一个吃到苦头的是狼,它对这“小猪”发起了进攻,结果被踩断了脊梁。

狐狸才意识到,这不是猪,而是一头传说中的大象。

狐狸向狮子发出警告,象已经伤了狼,很快它将挑战狮王的统治,与狮王分庭抗礼,甚至有可能会独霸丛林。

狮子感到了前所未有的威胁,兽类们也开始想方设法干扰象的生活。

在兽类的猜疑与担忧中,小象逐渐长成了大象。

它没有被自己的体重压垮,也没有向狮王发出挑战,它没有和兽类争夺地盘,甚至也没有欺负任何小动物,它仍然是一只草食动物。

只不过,在它成长的过程中,它的确也受到了很大的考验,它的鼻子曾将试图袭击它的狐狸扔得很远,它的巨蹄曾经踢伤了前来挑畔的狮王,它坚强的皮肤,阻挡了兽类们一次次的偷袭。

草食动物的本性决定了,大象的崛起注定是一种和平的崛起。

如果说,这种崛起也是一种威胁,水星熊想,它威胁到的,应该是兽类们肆无忌惮,想为所欲为的欲望。

有时,当我们在做着属于我们的生活乐趣,例如单纯的文字分享,无意要侵害他人的主义时,却还是被其它别有意图的牟利者视为眼中钉,处处为难。这时候,不妨做回丛林里的大象,做好自己的本性即可。

要知道,每个人的性格中,都有某些无法让人接受的部分,再美好的人也一样,所以不要苛求别人,也不要埋怨自己。

打击与挫败是成功的踏脚石,还是绊脚石,很大部分是看个人对之的诠释与应对态度。我们总会在生活中面对无尽的敌人,但,与其战胜敌人一万次,不如战胜自己一次。

只要,你保有人性的那一份良善。



Posted by 水星 at 9:54 PM

http://mercurychong.blogspot.com/2019/06/blog-post_26.html

周顯﹕招股書寫得差有因

文章日期:2019年6月27日

【明報專訊】月前,約了股壇女強人午飯,這名女強人,連我都佩服,可知其巴閉。為了吃飯多點chemistry,我還叫了馬草泥去,讓他有機會學到堅料。(按:這名女強人的地位,肯定在前3名之內,無人不識其大名,幾十億身家咁多多啦!)

她在席間嘆氣說,這一代的人做事真的很差,什麼都不懂,連最基本的知識都不識,當然更加不識寫招股書了。

其實,原因很簡單,現時分工細膩,招股書當然是交給律師寫,sales根本不用理,而負責撰寫的律師,咪係十零萬一個月的junior,唔通搵個partner寫咩,partner是負責傾生意的嘛,怎有空去搞這些小事?
律師仔剪剪貼貼砌成一本招股書

律師仔做過幾年工,識得啲乜嘢呢?寫一本招股書,咪就係東抄抄、西抄抄,剪剪貼貼,就砌成了一本招股書了,之所以招股書不時出錯,正是這個原因。至於分析報告,其實分析員只是在pitch客戶時,同在上市前,各見客戶一次,中間時候,完全失蹤,因為同一team人,要去serve好多客嘛!所以嘛,說穿了,不過是老點客戶。

我說,唉!corporate finance的人不專業,private banker又何嘗專業?他們都是晨早聽分析員presentation,照辦煮碗,就去sell客戶,至於分析員的愚蠢,那又是另外的故事。總之,不過是公司要sell乜,他們sell乜給客戶,如此而已。我認識的所有,記着,是所有,私人銀行家,都不識投資為何物。

說回馬草泥這個人,有人問過,我同他究竟有幾熟,我說,我是他護照的緊急聯絡人,他在外國有事,第一時間便要找我。為何是我而不是其他人呢?皆因緊急聯絡人的必要條件,是要「not frequently travel with you」,所以,親人和愛人都不可以。

[周顯 投資二三事]

Wednesday, June 26, 2019

周顯﹕社會愈動盪 愈有利狡猾投機者

文章日期:2019年6月24日

【明報專訊】我寫了一篇〈惡法通過 年輕人才有機會上位〉,結果引來了大批的討論。我是屬於死豬不怕開水燙的那一種,當然不怕捱罵,但是,為了對編輯和讀者負上文責,還是需要補充幾句。

《明報》的專欄,題目是由編輯起的,我概不管理,也從來沒有投訴過,皆因一旦投訴,這工作又回到了本人的身上了。當然,我承認編輯們的題目起得實在好,很可能比我自己起還要好,因此我也樂得偷懶。

我也並沒打算說以上題目是斷章取義了,不過把文中的一些話變成了標題,的確是把其着重點intensify了,而在這個政治風頭火勢的場合,有點把作者放在火上烤的意味。當然,我也不太在乎,反正又沒有歪曲我的原意,只是把爭議的部分放大了。
政府變壞 總有人得益

對於政府變壞,有人卻得益,令我想起一個有趣的故事。劉仲敬是個流亡分子,極度仇共,他想起當年念歷史博士,其導師對他說,少年時盲目愛國,長大後讀多了書,才知道共產黨和毛澤東做了很多壞事,因此他變得信民主和反共了。當時劉仲敬心裏想,以你的出身,如果沒有共產黨,你還在甘肅當貧中下農,如今能夠當大學教授,是共產黨的恩賜。但是我就不同了,我家本來是大地主,是貴族,是共產黨把我家的一切剝奪了,所以我才和共產黨誓不兩立,要推翻它,另立大蜀民國云云。

不管什麼政策,都會有人得益,有人吃虧,愈是動盪,愈有利於狡猾的投機者,愈不利於正直做事的中產階級,這是定律。

[周顯 投資二三事]

湯文亮﹕日本迷失30年 因亂投資海外

文章日期:2019年6月26日

【明報專訊】日本如何迷失30年,一直是市民茶餘飯後談話的話題,一般人認為是因為「廣場協議」,到最近因為華為事件,有人將之代入當年東芝事件令日本迷失30年。事實上「廣場協議」的內容與「東芝事件」的來龍去脈,大部分人都不甚了解,既然唔了解,點解又咁肯定話日本迷失30年是因為上述事件?如果我話日本迷失30年是因為日本人貪勝不知輸,相信很多人都不會同意我的說法。
借外幣房貸 涉匯率風險

最近,有很多香港人都打算在外地置業,他們當中有不少利用當地的銀行貸款來完成置業心願。其實,他們這樣做是很危險,因為除了樓價可升可跌之外,匯水亦可升可跌,所以,如果在外地買樓而又要大幅借貸,這與賭博差不多,所以我經常提醒那些打算在外地買樓的人,不要借太多錢,最好唔好借,風險就可以降至最低。現在香港人在外地買樓,除了貪樓價大幅低於香港之外,亦貪其回報高,但如果問當地銀行借貸,所付利息比香港高,回報就相應地降低,甚至出現負回報,海外投資就變成一個負累,日本就是給負回報所累而迷失30年。

在上世紀1980年代,日本經濟蓬勃,不但日本貨幣升值,日本樓亦同樣急升,曾經試過有一段時間,大東京地區的總樓價可以買起整個美國,不少日本商人大舉買入美國商廈豪宅,包括著名的洛克菲勒中心。

不過,日本人並不是將手上日本資產出售而轉買美國資產,因為日本資產不斷升值,出售並不是一個聰明行動,日本人甚至不會在日本借錢買美國資產,因為日圓不斷升值,在日本借錢買美國資產是一個愚蠢行為,他們在美國借錢買美國資產,一切本來是很美好的,但由於日圓升得太高,出口困難,商品失去了競爭能力,日本經濟亦由盛極而衰,不久之後,日本資產狂瀉,日圓貶值,在美國的商廈豪宅亦租不出去,日本人在美國投資出現負回報。

到最後,不少商廈豪宅,包括洛克斐勒中心就要賣回給原業主,這就是日本迷失30年的因由,廣場協議與東芝事件只不過是令事情雪上加霜,如果日本人在買美國資產時唔問美國借錢,廣場協議就不會發揮效果,今日香港人在外地買樓,如果唔問當地銀行借錢,最大損失也只是物業貶值,不會出現負回報,亦不需要將海外投資報銷。

紀惠集團行政總裁

[湯文亮 敢說反話]

周顯﹕強勁現金流 比正資產好賺錢

文章日期:2019年6月26日

【明報專訊】朋友說,他有個朋友,做的不知什麼生意,生意賺不了錢,但是他把資金挪來賭港元不脫鈎,這幾年來,年年都有幾千萬元的收入。

我說,其實這現象,幾十年前已經出現了。那時,做貿易拿LC,可以問銀行借好多錢,皆因貿易的利潤很低,所以LC的乘數效應很大。但其實,到了80年代,貿易已經不大賺錢了,那些貿易商人把LC的錢用來炒樓炒股票,結果炒到股樓齊升,他們也發了大財。

做酒樓,做旅行社,也是大量現金流入,懂得炒股炒樓的,也不難賺到大錢,甚至有當發展商,建了一幢大樓出來的。退一萬步說,有很多錢流出流入,偷一些出來用用,也可以養妻活兒,提高生活水平了。
現金流不夠付利息要破產

撈賭疊碼的也是如此,很多時,賭客都會欠錢遲還,於是就要有很多的現金流轉。其實,只要能付利息,債務愈疊愈多,也沒有問題,反而就算是正資產,現金流不夠付利息,也要破產收場。

內地甚至有人專門做流水帳,負責賣出買入貨品,目的就是增大營業額,向銀行借更多的錢。

以上這些,是最快賺到大錢的方法,今日如果努努力力,用正常的方法賺錢,就是執輸行頭,慘過敗家,被旁門左道的人都跑過頭了。

[周顯 投資二三事]

Tuesday, June 25, 2019

日本股神授招‧让钱成为能生钱的金蛋

赚钱存钱,运用增值,财富增加后要再持续运用。这个循环很重要,在此,就是要谈到如何才能存钱致富。首先,我们先从存钱开始聊。

我父亲有几个口头禅,其中一个是“钱其实很怕寂寞”,而另一个是“没钱就甚么都做不成”。

幸好,我从小就很讨厌浪费钱。因投资而增加的钱,不会用到别的事物上,而是再用来投资。努力不懈地存钱滚钱,不断重复这个动作。

当时并没有特别想用那笔钱来做甚么事,而是为了当有一天想用钱时手边可以有钱,事实上是抱持著这样的心情在存钱。当有一天要做某件事时,有越多的钱在手边,就能实现越大的梦想。

为了那一天,现在先努力存钱吧!我当时是抱持这样的心情。而且当时也没甚么具体的梦想,只是持续地存钱运用增加财富。

你觉得我一直持续做到甚么时候呢?

40岁。一直到我40岁辞去公务员独立门户为止,我都持续存钱,运用资金增加财富。然后在我40岁成为基金管理人,朝著人生的下一阶段前进时,这笔资金成了我的力量。

“过度储蓄”等于是停止金钱的循环流动。

“储蓄”和“过度储蓄”的差异,我想你们都应该已经了解了。“储蓄”是有目的地存钱,存到某个金额就去买房子或创业等,有具体的使用方向。但另一方面,“过度储蓄”则是没有目的,单纯只是把钱牢牢地抓在手上放著不动的状态。

当然包含存与不存的选择在内,金钱的用途因人而异。比起存钱,有的人想把钱用在购买高级跑车、或搜集名贵手表为乐趣。只要是能让自己获得幸福感的用钱法,我都觉得可以。

只是根据我的经验,只有钱才是会生钱的蛋,也就是金蛋。所以第一步要先存成为你的本金的钱。零不管时间经过多久,都还是零;但是只要开始存钱,钱就会成为金蛋,在你人生的重要局面发挥力量。不管你要过怎么样的人生,都先从存钱这一步开始吧!

把两成的薪水存下来当生钱的蛋

那么具体来说,要怎样才能存钱呢?在一开始曾提到过,长大成人后,为了每一天的生活开销会有许多支出,要存钱并不那么容易。尤其是刚出社会时薪水少,要租房子付房租,又要买上班穿的套装等,比起进来的收入,出去的支出较多,要把钱存起来是件难事吧?

尽管如此,当生活稳定下来,我会把赚到的钱七成当作生活费、一成用在兴趣和乐趣上、二成存下来以备不时之需。我认为这样的比例分配是比较稳妥的,这两成就会成为“生钱的蛋”。

反过来说,就是赚到的钱有七成用来过生活。

但要怎样钱才能生钱呢?你把拿到的红包放在抽屉里,是绝对不会增加的。金钱要增加是有规则的,那就是“运用等于流动循环”,要把钱投入“金流”中。就如同山顶上的小溪流,在汇入大海前变成大河川般,金钱也是越流动会变得越多。

我想刚拿到钱时,大家通常都会先想到要把钱存进银行。你可能已经有自己的户头,看明细的地方可以看到存款利息。虽然金额不多,但这就是钱生出来的钱。

银行负责保管很多人的存款,再将这些钱贷款给需要的人。跟银行贷款的人,需要支付利息给银行。银行跟贷款者收取利息,再将其中的一部份付给把钱存在银行的人。就这样存在银行的钱,姑且可说在社会中流动。

不过,最近银行的存款利息非常低,就算把钱存在银行也不太会增加。日本银行的平均利率大约是0.001%。(台湾银行的活期存款利率是0.08%。)假设把100万元存在银行一年,能领到的利息也不过只有10元。这种程度的话,无法称为生“金蛋”。

另外还有一点希望你知道,把钱存在银行反而会减少。这里说的“减少”并非指实际的金额减少。在经济成长的国家,今天手上的100元,5年后不见得同样具有100元的价值。像这样钱会贬值的现象,我们称为“通货膨胀”。

譬如说距今约50年前的1970年左右,当时一碗拉面250元就可以吃到。可是现在想要吃一碗拉面,最低都要花上500元。为甚么价格涨了一倍呢?答案是这50年之间,1元的价值贬值了一半的关系。50年前用100万元可以买得到的物品,现在想要去买必须要付200万元才买得到。

在这样的背景下,如果50年前在银行存100万元,利率假设是0.001%的话,现在会变成100万零500元。

这里是思考的重点,账面上确实增加了500元,但是100万元的价值本身却减半了。把钱存在银行,钱却“减少”就是指这样的状况。

本文摘自《跟钱做朋友:向日本股神学习影响一生的致富观,打通金钱通道的理财课》,采实文化出版,村上世彰著、杨孟芳译。

文章来源 : 星洲日报 2019-06-24

https://www.sinchew.com.my/content/content_2072842.html

Monday, June 24, 2019

洞悉股市未来/黄云浩

2019年6月21日


彼得:教育普及造成科技创新,因此可拥有长足发展的环境。

对跟刚学股票投资的朋友最常说的一句话,就是“投资不能太短视,眼光绝对要放长远”。

当然,他们也知道买股票要看长远。但是时间一长,稳定性会不会因而变得更脆弱?

因为未来有太多不确定因素。

我想很多人都是这样想。因此,用不过时的投资法,就是根据营收和盈利增长这等模式来决定买卖。业绩好就买,不好就卖。守住已经是不可思议了,更何况是买进不卖出。

股票投资,我们要如何看长远?如何拿捏那个准确度?如何让自己更准确预测未来?

物理学家与未来学家加来道雄(Michio Kaku)就写过几本关于未来的书。但是,他写的未来却是从现在看以后,可能也是廿几年后的事,个中的准确性要等到未来到来时,才能得到验证。

这些从事未来学的权威,可以提供什么线索或理论,帮助我们这些在股市打滚的人,好让我们可以更准确掌握或揣摩未来?

笔者手上就有一本受赠于前辈关于“未来”的书 ——《长远的艺术——在不确定的世界中规划未来》。

这本由彼得施瓦茨(Peter Schwartz)于1991年所写,就有一章提到他应用未来学,对2005(此书出版的14年后)所提出对世界的猜想。

这本写在97/98年亚洲金融风暴,01/02年互联网泡沫,07/08由美国次贷危机所引起的全球金融风暴前的书,能预见的东西会有多少的准确性?让我们拿来跟现今全球的发展做比较看看。

严重低估科技影响

彼得说,因为教育的普及造成科技创新,因此可拥有长足发展的环境。尽管未来会跟现在一样有很多令人烦恼的全球问题,但是单单靠科技的进步,就已经可以肯定全球的繁荣了。

他也提出在未来学预测的历史上,最常见的失败就是严重低估了科技所带来的影响。

彼得也正确了预见全球实用主义(Global Pragmatism,whatever works theory)(例子,看看中国特色的资本主义)的缺点造成贫富差距的扩大(例子,超级富豪阶层的兴起)。

彼得也预见了全球电子交易的速度,将比工业和服务业更快地产生投机性的财富 (例子,比特币)。

作者也提出了计算机的进步,有办法利用模拟的微观世界捕捉业务(例子,如电商巨人阿里巴巴与亚马逊)。

思考场景构建

别忘记,写在1991年的当时是没有手机的。

苹果跨时代的手机要等到2007年中才出现。而现在的手机功能比起个人电脑更加不遑多让。

是什么造就彼得对未来分析的力量?彼得就分享了未来学的应用着重于场景构建,包括了场景思考、场景构建过程等的。

识别场景构建8过程

第一步:确定焦点问题或决定(问问自己有那些决定是需要做的,为什么,如公司进军新行业)

第二步:关键因素 (有哪些因素可以影响那些已经决定的问题,如SWOT分析)

第三步:主要的推动力 (有哪些主要的推动力可以影响关键因素,如人口红利)

第四步:按重要性和不确定性排名 (将关键因素与主要的推动力按重要性和不确定性来排名)

第五步:选择场景逻辑 (根据第二步与第三步来分成不同的场景)

第六步:充实场景 (重新回到第二步与第三步,看看可不可补充场景逻辑 )

第七步:潜在意义 (将场景套用在第一步来排练未来,看看那些决定有什么不同,当初的决定如果只能在一个场景中有效,这可能是一场赌博,如有些上市公司趁三年前大势好,转行成为屋业发展商,结果烂尾收场)

第八步:选择领先指标 (以上功课如果已经完成,就要监控现实是不是如场景般演变,因为场景中的逻辑连贯性,将允许我们从场景中引出某些领先指标; 如伟特(Vitrox) 的自动化光学检测系统的服务,其实很自然就因为科技业的进步而得到应用。)

最后,如书本的名字,彼得说场景思考是一门艺术,不是科学。

好比投资,笔者就认为善于思考,善于想像,这般属性艺术的成分居多。因此,艺术就决定了一个人的投资格局。

至于分析,善于用量(如下注的神奇配方,Kelly Criterion)等的属性,就属于科学成分较多,也决定了一个人在投资项目上所能累计盈利的多寡。

https://www.enanyang.my/news/20190621/洞悉股市未来黄云浩/

老板你在瞎忙吗?/拿督刘明

2019年6月22日

两个经济系研究生在公园散步。走着走着,他们看到了一坨狗屎。

A突然起了一个调皮的念头,他对B说:我们打个赌,假如你敢吃下这坨狗屎,我给你500元!

B想了一想,父亲节就到了,自己正发愁没钱为父亲买礼物,于是把心一横,大声地对A说:不就一坨屎吗? B真的把那坨狗屎吃了,看似轻松地赢了500元!

两人继续往前走,静静的都不发一言,但心里各有盘算。

A心里嘀咕,非常不服气:妈的,不就一坨狗屎吗,我的500元这样就没了!

而B的内心也好别扭,那难闻的狗屎味在嘴边挥之不去,狗屎在肚里打滚,想吐又吐不出来,难受的很呐!

B也很不服气,心想:妈的,不就是500元吗?我干嘛那么窝囊,为了这点钱而吃了一坨狗屎!

突然眼前一亮,A和B同时看到了另一坨狗屎,B心想,报仇雪恨的机会来了!

于是B对A说:你假如敢把这坨狗屎吃下去,我就把刚才赢你的500元给你!

A正中下怀,大声说:不就一坨屎吗?

二话不说,把那坨狗屎吃了!

这个笑话背后的意义是什么?500元在两人手中转了一圈,没有产生任何经济效益,大家瞎折腾一场,却各自吃了暗亏!

这种吃屎闹剧经常在我们身边上演,现在吵得沸沸扬扬的中美贸易战不也是异曲同工吗?

美国几乎对所有中国进口产品加增关税,中国当然以牙还牙。

结果除了害惨了两国人民,对世界经济增长不止没有任何贡献,还进一步影响全球经济稳定。

此情况放诸职场上,也屡见不鲜!

做老板一定要懂得放手让下属去做,才不会做死自己。

太忙碌容易变盲

记得多年前公司初创时期,我非常勤奋努力,整天为业绩忙得不可开交,当时根本不懂什么是企业管理,每当各部门负责人忙不过来的时候,就拼命聘请员工。

一段时间下来,公司赘员越来越多,到了年尾财报揭晓的时候,几乎是瞎忙,公司都不怎么赚钱。

这种情况持续了好几年。

直到有一天,我拜访客户出来后,因为心里惦记着其他事情,头脑发热,完全没有意识到停在我车子后的一部面包车就往后退,结果撞上了。幸好只是一桩小车祸。

事后自己冷静下来想想,身为老板,我忙得日夜颠倒,不亦乐乎,我的员工却在办公室里叹冷气无所事事。

两个月裁15人

身为企业人,我当时存在的意义似乎只是为员工服务,而不是为社会创造更高的价值!

于是我毅然采取了生平第一个裁员计划。我从53位员工递减到38位,前后只用了两个月。

虽然赔了一些钱但轻装上路之后,我们往后几年在企业路上走得平稳了很多!

一定要学会放手

忙与盲,是中小企业的软肋!我经常跟朋友开玩笑说,要看一个人的生意有多大,看他的手机响的次数就猜到一二。

我经常跟一些上市企业老板吃饭,除了少数的一两位,几个小时的饭局下来,他们的手机几乎都没有响过!

理由很简单,假如公司大小事都你说了算,你的生意又能有多大呢?

以前偶尔会到一家服装厂谈生意,每一次坐在老板娘面前总要等上一、二个小时,因为她实在太忙了,电话从未间断。

从接单到安排货期都找她!而她的公司同仁却空闲得很!

我说你负责陪顾客聊天就好,其他细节让下属做吧!

她说放心不下!

我后来也不去了,因为我自己也很忙,犯不着陪她耗时间。

先做强才能做大

上个星期我在协会楼下一家砂劳越餐厅用餐,遇到餐厅老板娘。

老板娘曾经是小学校长,非常健谈。

我说,老板娘,生意那么好,什么时候开放加盟,把生意做大?

她说就快了,等我把系统、中央厨房等弄妥当就开始了。生意要做强才能做大!

是的!生意要做强才能做大!

为了做大而毫无方向的瞎忙,到头来“做死自己,恨死隔离”,何苦来哉?

https://www.enanyang.my/news/20190622/老板你在瞎忙吗拿督刘明/

Sunday, June 23, 2019

Land & General Bhd (L&G) - IS READY FOR BOTTOM UP

Author: LogicTradingAnalysis | Publish date: Sun, 23 Jun 2019, 8:46 AM

Land & General Bhd in short L&G (3174) is under our LTA Coverage as we see this stock is ready for a bottom up very very soon.

We choose to unveil to everyone at this moment because it's stock price still not yet move much. So that everyone can notice this undervalues stock !






http://land-general.com/

This company has been long history in Bursa as already listed in BURSA stock market since 1968. Can last until today simply mean it's not a company that doing tricky stuff and go delist after some time. It's a solid and profitable company.

It's a company major in Housing Property, Township Development and Education.

To cut short, we tell you why we think L&G (3174) is ready for a bottom up very soon :





It's very obvious that latest two quarter Revenue and Profit is already improving and new High Revenue Profit for the past 3 years. Look at latest quarter already almost contribute 1 EPS, if next 3 quarter remain the same, rolling PE will become less than 5 !

To be sure it can sustain or doing better, we notice that latest quarterly result report under Prospect mention this :



After reading this prospect, we made no doubt immediately press our buy button to collect as soon as we can because we expecting this company stock price will hit bottom and rocket up soon. Once everyone have a deep study about it.

Key point above :

1. Stamp Duty waiver - Government initiative to boost property market
2. Bank negara reduce 25 point interest rate - Reduce buyer burden and increase investor appetite
3. Most importantly expecting coming financial year may improve.

And of course we have more study whether it's true and whether market buy the idea that Property Market really Bottom up, or at least L&G alone able to bottom up?





From this picture, 11/6/2019 just this month news have reported that PROPERTY market may finally bottomed out !!

But we need more evidence that the Property theme is exactly ready to be bring up into Bursa Market as trader need more reason to buy up the stock.





Yes, its the rate cut that potential come in July, which we expecting our Bank Negara might also follow to cut rate further down in future. And we already see Bank Negara did once last month, do not surprise that they lower the rate again in coming next few month. As whole world are cutting interest rate ! Lower rate mean better sentiment for Property Stock !

We may see a bull run of Property stock happen again like years 2013 and now is still at bottom !



We can also see that new Malaysia Government has putting many initiative to recover property market. Apart from giving waived, they push bank to give more access to first time home buyer !

More interestingly many Malaysian think Malaysia property already over price however for foreigner from Hong Kong, China, Western, Japan, Malaysia property are still very affordable and cheap !!





https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/hong-kong-investors-snap-affordable-property-malaysia-eye-retirement

You can watch how Hong Kong artist laugh at our Malaysia Property that selling In Million but still consider cheap for them : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gYINMi8iPz0

We see this as an opportunity for investing in L&G as they have huge planning this year and we see it start billing and expecting more to come.



We have learn that during last year L&G already planned great timing to launch property this year and it worth RM 4.2 billion !!

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/lg-plans-launch-three-projects-klang-valley-worth-rm42b-next-year

Before we went too far, let's come back to see whether L&G have any values in term of stock price whether can go higher or not.





We can obviously see that the company have asset worth RM 0.369 if they sell everything off, and we expecting more because L&G have many land and some may not yet revalues !!





Looking at their big cash balance, RM 218 million is equal to RM 0.0736 cent, which mean if we buying at RM 0.155 (last closing price as at 21/6/2019), 50 % half of it is cash and it's big because many company have less than 10% of cash compare to stock price.




And the company is giving dividend every year and the yield at this level is very good, it's going to entitle in July !

RM 0.01 dividend / RM 0.155 share price = 6.4% Dividend Yield

It's much better that many stock in Bursa and with such a cheap penny stock can get 6.4% can be said as it's crazily amazing and worth it ! It's definitely free as the upside potential of this stock yet to be mention !

We not even yet mention about their Education Business which showing steady income and improving !



It's a very big profitable Education business as it from pre school, kinder garden, primary until finish secondary !! One they join, they pay every semester until they finish form 5!

And we can see the surrounding area full of houses which is big population area.

The exciting part is that Education business always worth huge values as teachers, student are not easy to come by, we can see from most recent case that PARAMON sold off their Education business and bagging huge profit ! And going to give huge dividend !



Just to compare SRI KDU land and campus size with L&G Sri Bestari, we already can see quite obvious that L&G's Sri Bestari is much bigger and almost double compare to SRI KDU.




Most interesting part is that both of this two school are actually very near ! Just 11.3 KM away!



With that we can safely estimate how much L&G' Sri Bestari actually worth !

According to a report by The Edge Malaysia, “Two Horses will acquire 69.7% equity interest in PESB for RM134.5 million cash, 80% in PEKSB for RM21 million and 80% in Sri KDU for RM385 million”. https://www.edgeprop.my/content/1553505/paramount-reducing-exposure-education-industry

PARAMON not yet even sold off the whole education unit already get a value worth RM 540.5m. If sold off fully based on calculation above, its roughly worth RM 700.46 millions !!

(PESB RM 134.5/69.7%x100% + PEKSB RM 21/80%x100% + Sri KDU RM 385/80%x100%)

Since SRI BESTARI size bigger than SRI KDU, we think that

L&G' Sri Bestari easily worth RM 500 million to RM 1 billion!
If RM 500 million / Total L&G Share 2.973b = RM 0.168

If RM 1 billion / Total L&G Share 2.973b = RM 0.3363

L&G Education business alone already worth between RM 0.168 - RM 0.3363 much higher than current share price ! (RM 0.155)

Very undervalued stock ! Not yet even calculate L&G Property business and land values !

Lets just looking at technical chart to check whether it's ready for some movement:





We can see that Year 2005 after hit low and shoot high to RM 0.60.

Again year 2008 after hit low and shoot high to RM 0.50.

Year 2011 to year 2014 making Triple Bottom and shoot high to RM 0.55.

Year 2019 finally it hit the lowest again and forming a 14 years of TRIPLE SUPER BOTTOM.



If we zoom in closely, we already see that move out from the downtrend line, just recently, and we spotted big volume start appear this year and the price did not go lower, it's high possible that accumulation in progress and soon might have action of turning up.

As a conclusion,

1. Property market is recovering, goreng property stock theme is coming.

2. Revenue and profit is recovering, new high of 3 years and expecting to do better.

3. Dividend 1 cent is coming in July, high yield.

4. High NTA RM 0.369

5. Education Business worth big values, if sell off might double or triple up stock price.

6. Technically already making bottom, very low risk and high potential to bottom up.

My own personal "hope" for short term price to reach RM 0.22, mid term hope RM 0.35.

Saturday, June 22, 2019

Tong's Value Investing Portfolio as of June 20, 2019

Tong Kooi Ong

Malaysian stocks not performing due to serious structural impediments

It was another good week for US stocks. President Trump tweeted that he will meet with President Xi in Japan next week to revive stalled trade talks, giving investors one more reason to push stock prices higher. Earlier this month, stocks rallied on expectations that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates imminently. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P500 index are within a stone’s throw from their all-time record highs.

Stock markets around the world too gained on the improved sentiment. Relevant bellwether indices in the region including Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, Hong Kong, China and Japan are all sitting on gains for the year-to-date. The one standout is the Bursa Malaysia’s FBM KLCI, which is down 0.9% so far this year.

This lackluster performance for the Bursa has triggered some politically motivated rhetoric in recent days. But the fact is that stocks have fared poorly for far longer – well before the change in government. Case in point, the FBM KLCI has fallen in four of the last five years. So, if not politically related, why has the Malaysian stock market done so badly?

One of the biggest reasons has got to be about underlying earnings, which is the main driver for stock prices over the longer-term.

We tabulated the net profit for all companies listed on the Bursa throughout the past five years, from 2014 to 2018. There are 855 companies. We also categorised these companies into their respective sectors, to determine the profit trend and compounded annual growth rates (CAGR) for each sector. The results are shown in Table 1.

Table 2 shows the annual year-on-year growth/decline for each sector over the same five-year period while Table 3 shows the sector net margin for each year.

Table 1: Total net profits and CAGR by sector

Table 2: Y-Y change for net profits by sector

Table 3: Net margins by sector

Table 1-3 show total net profit for all companies fell in 2015, 2016 and 2018 – the CAGR of the decline was -6.8% per annum. Net profit margin too has contracted sharply over the past five years, from an average of 11.3% in 2014 to 7.7% in 2018.

Not surprisingly, the years where total profits fell are also the years where the FBM KLCI and broader-based FBM Emas index ended in the red. See Table 4.

Notably, even though share prices have been declining, the size of the drop is lesser than that for earnings. There may be a few reasons for the limited share price volatility on both upside and downside. Surely one of them has to be the huge impact of local funds like the EPF and PNB. While there may be benefits, there are also long-term consequences to the integrity of the Malaysian capital market.

Regardless, the result is that PE valuations are higher now than they were back in 2014. And this is why the stock market is under performing – valuations are not attractive even though share prices are lower. It also means a turnaround is unlikely until there is broad-based earnings recovery.

Table 4: Performance for Bursa benchmark indices

Unsurprisingly, the energy (oil & gas) sector fared the worst in terms of profits, given the sharp fall in crude oil prices and resulting collapse in global exploration and production activities. Brent crude fell from well over US$110 per barrel at its 2014 peak to below US$30 during the lows in 2016. Oil prices are now hovering around US$60 per barrel.

Profits for plantation companies too were affected by commodities prices, falling 15.6% annually, on average, since 2014. In this case, crude palm oil (CPO) dropped from an average price of about RM2,400 per tonne in 2014 to RM2,170 per tonne in 2015. CPO prices recovered to RM2,630 and RM2,800 in 2016-2017, respectively before dropping back to RM2,240 per tonne last year.

Construction, consumer products & services, properties, transport & logistics, utilities, telecommunications & media and even real estate investment trusts (REIT) all reported negative profit growth between 2014 and 2018.

Healthcare, the best-performing sector with cagr of 5.7%, has only 15 companies. Financial services, with 34 companies, grew at a CAGR of 4.3% while technology (81 companies) expanded just about 2% p.a.

Profits for the biggest sector by number of companies, industrial product & services (239 companies) were up by only 0.4% p.a. while that for consumer products & services (183 companies) fell 2.2%, annually, on average. Net profits for property companies declined at an average clip of 3% annually for the past four years.

Suffice to say that even setting aside the energy and plantation sectors that are heavily influenced by external factors, the average Malaysian company have not fared well at all. Net profit margin for all sectors declined through the five-year period.

In other words, the causes are years in the making and structural in nature.

Increasingly market-dominating GLCs and GLICs – with explicit and/or implicit unfair advantages – led to the crowding out of the private sector. Fewer number of banks – after rounds of consolidation – resulted in lesser diversity in terms of lending strategies, practices and appetite for risks.

Together with falling corporate profits, they translated into chronic under-investment in productive assets, technology, research & development and innovation. The quality of our education system has been in a long-term decline.

Companies that relied heavily on cheap, low-skill foreign labour and failed to move up the value chain were, increasingly, faced with pricing pressure from digitalisation and technology disruption.

Those that have, in the past, flourished under government subsidies were by and large, unable to fully pass on rising costs, leading to narrowing of margins. Unfortunately, many Malaysian companies remain simply rent seekers.

The issue of corporate governance may be another reason. As I wrote recently, if controlling shareholders can pay themselves half of the company’s profits as annual compensation, that represents some 4-5% of the market capitalisation, with no dividend paid to shareholders, surely it must be clear that this amounts to a blatant transfer of wealth of a public company to its controlling shareholders.

The above are some of the more obvious reasons for the chronic underperformance, in terms of corporate earnings and the stock market. They must be addressed urgently and within a holistic framework if we want to see a sustainable turnaround.

But despite all the gloom, investors can still profit by investing wisely and rationally. I will discuss this next week.

My Global Portfolio continued to fare well in the week ended Thursday, gaining another 1.7% and lifting total portfolio returns to 7.1% since inception. The portfolio is outperforming the MSCI World Net Return Index, which is up 5.9% over the same period.
The FBM KLCI gained 1.9% for the week, bolstered by improved sentiment in global equity markets. That said, there was no notable increase in trading volume.

Total returns for the Malaysian Portfolio now stand at 50.2% since inception. This portfolio continues to outperform the benchmark index, FBM KLCI, which is down 8.4% over the same period, by a long way.



Performance Comparison Since Inception (%)
%-8.450.2-15-10-50510152025303540455055
  • Tong's Value Investing Portfolio
  • FBM KLCI
SHARES HELDQUANTITYAVERAGE COSTCOST OF
INVESTMENT
CURRENT
PRICE
CURRENT
VALUE
GAIN /
(LOSS)
GAIN /
(LOSS)
SCGM BHD11,0661.72919,190.70.92010,180.7(9,010.0)(47.0%)
AJINOMOTO (M) BHD1,50011.81317,720.017.46026,190.08,470.047.8%
Y.S.P.SOUTHEAST ASIA HOLDING10,5002.41325,340.02.60027,300.01,960.07.7%
FORMOSA PROSONIC INDUSTRIES18,0001.44025,920.01.70030,600.04,680.018.1%
POH HUAT RESOURCES HOLDINGS13,0001.47019,110.01.58020,540.01,430.07.5%
SUPERLON HOLDINGS BHD15,0001.28919,327.51.00015,000.0(4,327.5)(22.4%)
CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BERHAD6,0005.14030,840.05.23031,380.0540.01.8%
JHM CONSOLIDATION BHD26,0001.14529,770.01.22031,720.01,950.06.6%
PRESTARIANG BERHAD73,0000.41029,930.00.43531,755.01,825.06.1%
Total  217,148.2 224,665.77,517.53.5%
        
Shares bought       
No transaction.       
        
Total shares held  217,148.2 224,665.77,517.53.5%
        
Shares sold       
No transaction.       
        
Cash Balance    75,753.4  
Realised Profits / (Losses)    92,901.6  
        
Change since last update Jun 13, 2019       
Portfolio      (0.4%)
FBMKLCI      1.9%
        
        
Portfolio Returns Since Inception  200,000.00 300,419.1100,419.150.2%
Portfolio Returns (Annualised)      10.7%
        
Portfolio Beta      1.035
Risk Adjusted Returns Since Inception      48.5%
        
        
Performance ComparisonAt Portfolio StartCurrentChangeRelative Portfolio Outperformance
FBM KLCI1,829.71,675.4(8.4%)58.6%
FBM Emas12,700.411,786.3(7.2%)57.4%
Footnote: 
*Current price is as at June 20, 2019. 
*Portfolio started on Oct 10, 2014 with MYR200,000. 
*This is a personal portfolio for information purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or solicitation or expression of views to influence readers to buy/sell stocks.

STOCKS SOLD IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS (Currency: MYR)
SHARES SOLDDATE BOUGHTDATE SOLDQUANTITYAVERAGE 
COST
COST OF 
INVESTMENT
PRICE SOLDSALES 
PROCEEDS
GAIN /
(LOSS)
GAIN /
(LOSS)
THONG GUAN INDUSTRIES BHD12-Dec-1608-Dec-175,0004.24321,215.04.10020,500.0(715.0)(3.4%)
KERJAYA PROSPEK GROUP BERHAD12-Jan-1715-Mar-1811,0001.02511,280.01.54016,940.05,660.050.2%
KERJAYA PROSPEK GROUP BERHAD - WARRANTS B 2018/202308-Mar-1815-Mar-183,0000.0000.00.330990.0990.0-
LUXCHEM CORPORATION BHD30-Aug-1715-Mar-1816,5000.73212,072.50.72011,880.0(192.5)(1.6%)
WILLOWGLEN MSC BHD14-Dec-1722-Mar-1820,0001.01020,200.01.26025,200.05,000.024.8%
MUAR BAN LEE GROUP BERHAD26-Oct-1722-Mar-1813,5001.24016,740.01.17015,795.0(945.0)(5.6%)
CHOO BEE METAL INDUSTRIES BHD07-Sep-1716-May-188,0002.19017,520.02.44019,520.02,000.011.4%
CHOO BEE METAL INDUSTRIES BHD07-Sep-1721-May-188,0002.19017,520.02.30018,400.0880.05.0%
SUPERLON HOLDINGS BHD01-Dec-1721-May-186,0001.1757,050.01.5509,300.02,250.031.9%
OKA CORPORATION BHD14-Dec-1728-Jun-1812,0001.54118,488.01.27015,240.0(3,248.0)(17.6%)
SUPERLON HOLDINGS BHD01-Dec-1728-Jun-186,0001.1757,050.01.2107,260.0210.03.0%
WILLOWGLEN MSC BHD14-Dec-1728-Jun-181000.50050.00.54054.04.08.0%
PANTECH GROUP HOLDINGS BHD17-May-1802-Aug-1843,0000.58024,940.00.56024,080.0(860.0)(3.4%)
KERJAYA PROSPEK GROUP BERHAD10-Jan-1706-Sep-1811,0001.02011,225.01.40015,400.04,175.037.2%
LUXCHEM CORPORATION BHD25-Aug-1706-Sep-1816,5000.71711,825.00.65510,807.5(1,017.5)(8.6%)
HOCK SENG LEE BHD19-Apr-1806-Sep-1814,5001.52022,033.01.37019,865.0(2,168.0)(9.8%)
GENTING MALAYSIA BERHAD06-Sep-1828-Nov-183,8005.07019,266.03.06011,628.0(7,638.0)(39.6%)
TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD06-Sep-1806-Dec-183,6005.50019,800.06.03021,708.01,908.09.6%
MAH SING GROUP BHD28-Jun-1814-Jan-1919,0001.00519,095.00.93017,670.0(1,425.0)(7.5%)
WILLOWGLEN MSC BHD14-Dec-1714-Feb-1919,9000.5009,900.00.4649,236.0(714.0)(7.2%)
SAM ENGINEERING & EQUIPMENT14-Jan-1914-Mar-193,0007.38022,140.07.90023,700.01,560.07.0%
PANASONIC MANUFACTURING MSIA16-May-1818-Apr-1960026.15717,182.037.87022,722.05,540.032.2%
HONG LEONG INDUSTRIES BHD14-Dec-1718-Apr-192,0009.12618,251.010.64021,280.03,029.016.6%
MALAYAN BANKING BHD16-May-1818-Apr-193,00010.25030,750.09.13027,390.0(3,360.0)(10.9%)
ECO WORLD DEVELOPMENT GROUP BERHAD28-Jun-1818-Apr-1915,2001.23518,772.00.92013,984.0(4,788.0)(25.5%)
DIALOG GROUP BHD06-Sep-1818-Apr-195,7003.45219,676.43.11017,727.0(1,949.4)(9.9%)
HARTALEGA HOLDINGS BHD28-Mar-1818-Apr-1911,0004.61050,710.04.75052,250.01,540.03.0%

A Note to Readers

It is my pleasure to share with you my Value Investing Portfolio. However, I must emphasize that it is by no means a recommendation or a solicitation or expression of views to influence you to buy or sell any stocks. I am just sharing openly on what I am doing with my stock portfolio.

Further, I like to remind all investors that investing is not just about the profits or returns. You will inevitably suffer stock losses too. You need to understand your own investment objective, risk appetite and the amount of loss you can afford to bear. So, while many investors talk only about absolute returns, I am also sharing the computed risk-weighted returns of my portfolio.

Tong Kooi Ong