Booking.com

Booking.com

Favorite Links

Thursday, January 31, 2019

(Icon) LC Titan Price Collapse - Shareholders and Contrarians Scramble In Different Direction

Author: Icon8888 | Publish date: Wed, 30 Jan 2019, 10:11 PM

1. Shareholders Scrambled For Exit

Today, LC Titan reported a profit of RM11 mil, significantly lower than the previous quarters’ RM300 mil plus (per quarter). The poor result was mostly due to margin squeeze, caused by high inventory cost and low selling price due to drop in demand. Many investors panic and rushed for the exit. Share price declined sharply from RM4.60 to as low as RM4.14, a drop of 10%. As a contrarian, I scrambled in the opposite direction, picking up some shares at RM4.15.

Why did I do that ?

2. Contrarianism

Contrarianism does not mean that you think the OPPOSITE of others. When a building is on fire and everybody is rushing out, you are not a contrarian if you rush in. It just doesn’t make sense.

Contrarianism, means that you think DIFFERENTLY from others. When something happens, the crowd will move in one direction. They are not necessarily wrong, but the state of commotion will sometime give rise to opportunities. If you can stay calm and think rationally, you might be able to exploit and benefit from the nuances (if they exist).

One good example is BIMB. Due to spate of recent bad news related to Tabung Haji and 1MDB (not even directly related to BIMB), the stock has been sold down from RM4.20 to RM3.60 despite reporting sterling set of result. The crowd thinks like this : there must be a lot of skeletons in the closet waiting to be uncovered, better play safe just in case NPL spikes in the future. As a contrarian, I take into consideration the exceptional quality of our own banking regulatory system, led by ex governor Zeti. I chose to believe that BIMB’s asset quality should be quite ok. Afterall its NPLs are only 2% plus. So I added some to my portfolio at RM3.60.

It is still early to say that I am right and the crowd is wrong, but BIMB is an example of how contrarian thinks and acts.

3. Structural vs. Cyclical Factors

When companies get into difficulty, the problem they face can be broadly divided into two main categories - structural vs. cyclical.

Let’s take George Kent as an example. The day after GE 14, George Kent share price dropped from RM4.00 to RM2.50. Are you a contrarian if you rush in to buy at RM2.50 ? No, you are not. You are merely a fool. The crowd is not always wrong. In George Kent’s case, the share price melt down is justified. The problem confounding the company is STRUCTURAL in nature. This kind of problem is very difficult to be rectified. There is almost no more hope. Rushing in when others are getting out is suicidal.

Cyclical issues, on the other hand, are caused by industry related cycles. It could be due to lower selling price, lower demand, or higher operating cost. For the latter, it was mostly due to rising raw material cost or labour cost, etc. Unlike structural issues, cyclical issues tend to go away in a relatively short period of time, from few quarters to two, three years.

In my opinion, share price collapse due to cyclicality is perfect opportunity for contrarians to act.

4. Be Selective

On 20 January 2019, I wrote an article “What is Investing ?”. In the article, I mentioned the following :

“Anything bought based on careful evaluation of value and proper reasoning, and in the event that things turn sour, can be held until recovery, is considered investing.”

Yup, the key word is “held until recovery”. When you buy a stock, especially when you are acting contrarian, always ask yourself this question, “will the stock ever recover within maximum of two to three years ? Does it have the requisite qualities to do that ?” (According to my definition, longer than three years means you have made a mistake).

To answer the question, you need to take into consideration the following :

(a) (once again) is the problem structural or cyclical ?

(b) is the balance sheets strong enough to withstand the down cycle ?

(c) Is the stock near all time low?

If the answers are yes, then you can consider buying some.

But you must be prepared for more pain to come. Famous investor Seth Klarman, who wrote the book “Margin of Safety”, pointed out that “contrarian investors are always wrong initially”. What he means is that after the initial decline, share price is likely to further go south. It will take some time for the stock to stabilise and ultimately recover. You need to have holding power.

5. Concluding Remarks

What is the main message of this article ? Is it about the benefit of acting contrarian ? No. The main message of this article is that if you ignore the negative impact of cyclical factors, a whole new world will open in front of you. This is especially true for raw material cost.

Let’s take 3A as an example. In the past two quarters, its profit has dropped due to higher raw material cost (tapioca). Before this, I will react to this adverse development and sell 3A. But now I think differently. I will ignore it and hold on. As a matter of fact, I will monitor tapioca price closely and jump in to buy more when there are signs that tapioca price is heading south (it is already happening).

Why should you behave in such a way ? Because you are an investor - you buy good quality companies, ignore cyclical noises **, hold on to them until they recover, then sell for a profit.

( ** Why should you ignore cyclical noises ? Because you have no choice !!! Things happen all the time in the world of business. If everytime a minor hiccup happens to the company and you cut loss, how many times you can do that ? Have you ever heard of death by thousand cuts ?)

The benefit of doing so is that you no more need to track latest quarterly result closely. The company's profit can drop, but since you know it can recover, you don’t need to do anything. It is just paper loss. One day you will make money when the upcycle returns.

Once you think and act like that (especially ignoring raw material cost fluctuation), you will suddenly find many stocks becoming investible. Can you imagine the difficulty of predicting the profitability of LC Titan over next few quarters ? There are so many things in flux. Oil price, demand for chemicals, currency fluctuations, competitive forces, etc. These things are so complicated, most retail investors like us will never be able to fully grasp them, let alone predicting them. However, if you ignore those cyclical factors, hold on to the stock with conviction (of course, must be bought at attractive valuation), there is a fairly decent chance that the stars will align one day and the company's profit will rebound. That is when you can cash out.

The same applies to many other manufacturing companies such as Petronm, Hengyuan, Johotin, Perstima, 3A, Petchem and poultry companies, etc.

(Note : I will be a bit careful if it involves forex factor as currencies once move in a direction, can potentially last for many years. For example : Ringgit's weakening since 2015. For me, major currency changes can potentially be structural. Make sure you are not caught in the wrong cycle).

战术勤奋VS战略懒惰/拿督刘明

2019年1月31日



包公升堂●拿督刘明大马连锁协会副会长


几个月前在杂志上看到雷军讲的一句话:“别用战术上的勤奋,掩盖战略上的懒惰”,觉得很有意思。

犹记得若干年前,农历新年的前一个星期,我去上了一堂三天的课程。那时公司刚起步,员工不超过10人,自觉管理到了瓶颈,很想有个突破。


这堂课以我现在的历练来说,其实还是一堂蛮实在的管理课程,完全道出了小型企业欲突破困境,往中型企业前进的关键。

详细内容我忘了,但有些要点现在还历历在目。


老师说身为决策者,要学会授权,应该做下属不会做也不该做的事情,如拟定方向、战略部署、制定人事管理制度等,那些周而复之(routine work)的琐碎小事,应该交由下属处理。

我当下回去后就做了一些调整,颇有奇效。我想这是我在管理上的第一个突破点!

授权,是中小企业的一个死穴。以前我总认为,授权就是亏钱,够奇葩吧?不过,我想如此奇葩者应该还大有人在。

我发觉中小企业老板有两种极端:一种凡事都亲力亲为,压根儿不相信下属,总以为别人做得不到位,只有他最棒。结果每天暗无天日的忙,整天怨天尤人,见人就抱怨身边无才可用。

这种老板为数最多!

另一种老板诸事不理,他认定请你回来就是为他解决问题,把任务付托于你自己就往前冲,完全没有“后顾之忧”,这种老板为数也不少。

松下电器创办人松下幸之助说过:当企业还小的时候,老板要站最前面,企业发展至中型的时候,老板要站在中间,这样进可攻退可守。当企业做大时,老板一定要站在最后方,指挥若定,帷幄运筹。


我经常推崇孙子兵法的“以正和,以奇胜”。就是公司要进攻前,必须把该做的都做好,如产品质量、公司制度、资金调度等等,这样决策者才能义无反顾,勇往直前。

我曾经讲过这样的故事:我有一位从事酒店供应的朋友,他的一位得力助手要离职,刚好到我公司来应征。我问她什么促使她有离职的念头?

她说她在这间家族公司做了5年,属于“一脚踢“那类,老板大小事都交她打理,对她信任有加,可是工资数年如一日。

她有几次萌生辞意,老板都晓于大义,死活不肯放人,有一次更出动老母亲煲汤送饭来劝阻,搞到她非常尴尬。

我后来调侃这位朋友说他害人害己。害人是因为他碍人前途,“阻人发达”。

害己是公司怎么可能只靠一人支撑?他应该学习如何建立核心团队,以免窘境重演。


自己做到半死不活不说,当得力员工离开的时候就仿佛世界末日,这种事件在中小企业里屡见不鲜。

另一种老板非常潇洒,因为他可以放心地让员工们自由发挥,他的兴趣就是冲、冲?冲!

这种老板跟前者比起来显得更加危险,我就见过一家几乎一夕崩盘的公司,因为他的员工一夜之间全被竞争对手挖走!

做企业,要做得潇洒自在,“无为而治”当然最好不过,但前提是你必须“有所为,有所不为“,更不能“无所不为”!

战术战略相结合

那天在商周读到何飞鹏的一篇文章:做大事,也要先会做小事。非常认同。

公司里有很多事情尤其是一些灰色地带,员工是不会也不想去碰的。

更何况一家公司不论规模大小,肯定有很多细节要兼顾,甚至要老板说了算,尤其是建立制度这回事,老板不可能置身事外。

很多东西看似小事,久而久之就成了大事!

除非他有一位非常出色的生意伙伴,把他的后院照顾得很好。

但对不起,也许我孤陋寡闻,因为到目前为止,我还没遇到一家这样的公司。

很多朋友问我战术和战略那个重要?标准答案当然是两者都重要。因为先有战略方有战术。

战略是方向,做生意必须以终为始,但达到目的前的战术也非常重要,没有好的战术和执行力,很多伟大的构思都是空中楼阁。

但实际情况却往往不是如此!

你问问身边做生意的朋友们,有哪几个是因为有远大梦想而下海创业的?又有多少个一开始就依据规划好的路线图而达致成功的?

大多数人都是因为要改善生活品质,而自己去敲机会的门!

大家都是边做边学,所以中小企业很多是因忙而盲,原因就在这里。

在忙与盲之中规划出一个清晰的方向,一步一脚印走出一个康庄大道,是身为企业人的我们一生中必修的功课!

经营企业要成功,最终还是要回到雷军那句:不要用战术上的勤奋,掩盖战略上的懒惰。

http://www.enanyang.my/news/20190131/%E6%88%98%E6%9C%AF%E5%8B%A4%E5%A5%8Bvs%E6%88%98%E7%95%A5%E6%87%92%E6%83%B0%E6%8B%BF%E7%9D%A3%E5%88%98%E6%98%8E/

Lotte Chemical down as earnings miss estimates

CORPORATE NEWS
Thursday, 31 Jan 2019

In a filing with Bursa Malaysia yesterday, Lotte Chemical said its net profit had fallen 26.1% to RM786.23mil for the financial year ended Dec 31, 2018, compared with RM1.06bil in the preceding year, as it suffered a margin squeeze across its product segments. This resulted in the group’s earnings per share (EPS) falling to 34.6 sen from 53.6 sen previously

PETALING JAYA: Lotte Chemical Titan Holding Bhd shares fell sharply after its earnings missed market estimates.

The petrochemical group saw its counter falling as much as 51 sen to RM4.11 yesterday, before gaining some ground to close at RM4.24. This represented a decline of 38 sen, 8.2% from the previous day’s close. Volume traded stood at 4.9 million shares.

In a filing with Bursa Malaysia yesterday, Lotte Chemical said its net profit had fallen 26.1% to RM786.23mil for the financial year ended Dec 31, 2018, compared with RM1.06bil in the preceding year, as it suffered a margin squeeze across its product segments.

This resulted in the group’s earnings per share (EPS) falling to 34.6 sen from 53.6 sen previously. Earnings for the year in review came in below consensus estimates, missing the median estimate of nine analysts polled by Bloomberg by about 11%.

One analyst told StarBiz that Lotte Chemical’s earnings came in below expectations because many had underestimated the impact of the input cost spike on its earnings for the final quarter of 2018.

“While we expected the three months to December 2018 to be a soft quarter for Lotte Chemical, we didn’t expect the slump to be as much as it reported,” the analyst with a local bank said.

“The company has been plagued by a number of uncertainties such as volatile oil prices and the US-China trade tensions through 2018, and much of these will continue to affect it in 2019. So, the company in general is not out of the woods yet,” he added.

For 2018, Lotte Chemical saw its revenue increasing 18.2% to RM9.24bil from RM7.82bil in 2017, thanks to a higher sales volume.

The group has proposed a final single-tier dividend of 17 sen per share.

In the final quarter of 2018, Lotte Chemical saw its net profit fall 97.3% to RM10.13mil from RM378.15mil in the previous corresponding quarter. Consequently, the group’s EPS fell to 0.45 sen from 16.64 sen previously.

Lotte Chemical said the lower earnings for the three months to December 2018 were mainly due to a margin squeeze resulting from high feedstock costs, coupled with a fall in product prices.

In addition, it said, there was a provision for the writedown of inventory cost to a net realisable value of RM45.8mil, as a result of a lower product market price caused by additional petrochemical supply from other regions as a consequence of the US-China trade war.

During the quarter in review, Lotte Chemical reported a 10.4% increase in revenue to RM2.34bil from RM2.12bil in the previous corresponding quarter. It attributed the revenue growth to higher sales volume, which was driven by improvements in production quantity.

In a statement, Lotte Chemical president and CEO Lee Dong Woo explained: “The petrochemical industry experienced many uncertainties during the year with the highly volatile global crude oil market and coupled with the escalation of US-China trade conflicts in 2018.

“Despite these challenges, the company was able to ride through with a record sales performance and generated net operating cashflow of RM873.5mil in the year,” he added.

Last year, the group saw its plant utilisation rate improving from 73% to 83%, which it said was sufficient to maintain profit maximisation.

Looking towards 2019, Lotte Chemical’s operations remain dependent on the demand and supply of petrochemical products in the market, its ability to maximise outputs and efficiency, as well as feedstock and oil prices.

“The petrochemical market is a long-term play and our company will be able to ride through short-term volatilities, given our healthy operating fundamentals and strong technical support from the Lotte Chemical Corp, our parent company,” Lee said.

“More so, we are in zero-gearing position with ample liquidity and our key expansion projects are moving on schedule,” he added.

Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/01/31/lotte-chemical-down-as-earnings-miss-estimates/#B7ezYlVTldLdp6yP.99

Wednesday, January 30, 2019

意大利面放5天再加热吃 青年一睡不起

比利时布鲁塞尔(Brussels)20岁男大学生「AJ」(化名)吃了放在厨房5天意大利麵后死亡。

据英国《都市报》报导,医生伯纳德(Bernard)近日在YouTube频道,討论这起原先刊登在《美国临床微生物学杂誌》(US Journal of Clinical Microbiology)的病例。

「AJ」在2008年某日吃了一碗番茄酱意大利麵,那碗已煮熟的麵,已经放在厨房五日,一直没有放入冰箱。他將意大利麵放入微波炉加热后进食,之后外出运动,半小时后因为头痛、肚子痛及呕吐而回家。当时他以为只是普通食物中毒,没有吃药或求医,只是大量喝水后睡觉休息。翌日他没去上学,家人才发现他一睡不起。

当时验尸结果指出,「AJ」因仙人掌桿菌(bacillus cereus,蜡样芽孢桿菌)导致食物中毒,引发肝衰竭猝死。那碗意大利麵和番茄酱有经过分析后,发现意大利麵含有大量蜡样芽孢桿菌,番茄酱则没有。

伯纳德指,许多人吃「隔夜」的义大利麵或其他麵食后,不会有问题,但仍要小心。吃剩的食物,若自认没有妥善处理,且几小时后闻到怪味,建议不要吃,以免后悔莫及。

仙人掌桿菌常见於土壤和食物中,有些菌株会引起食物中毒。中毒通常是因为烹调不当,造成细菌孢子残留在食物上,若不当冷藏,或於室温摆放一段长时间后,孢子会发芽並產生毒素,常见於「隔夜饭」中,也因此由仙人掌桿菌引发的食物中毒又称:「炒饭综合症」。

患者会出现严重呕吐、腹痛、腹泻等症状,预防方法首先要避免食物受到污染,確保食品卫生,而食物在烹调后后要儘快食用,若未能马上吃掉,应保温在65度以上,储存两天內的话可於5度以下的冷藏库保存,若超过两天以上者务必冷冻保存。

政府首要关注B40拥屋 利基产业股受看好

2019年1月29日



(吉隆坡29日讯)《2018年至2025年房屋政策蓝图》昨日出炉,低收入群体(B40)仍是政府首要关注群体,分析员看好城镇发展商金群利集团(MATRIX,5236,主板产业股)表现。


安联星展研究分析员今日撰写报告指出,协助低收入群体拥屋,是政府最关注的事,预期房政部或在审批新产业发展项目方面加强管制,可负担房屋将继续面临激烈竞争。

“发展商料持续面临成本负担增加的压力,进而影响他们的盈利赚幅。”

安联星展研究建议,投资者可聚焦利基(niche)业者,比如城镇发展商金群利集团(MATRIX,5236,主板产业股)。

金群利跑赢同业

“金群利集团地库便宜,料可受惠于市场需求稳健,且在执行方面一直都保持优异表现,在整体产业市场疲软时,仍跑赢其他同业,录得强劲销售。”

分析员维持该股“买入”投资建议,目标价2.50令吉。

“金群利集团估值仍诱人,以2019财年6倍本益比交易,且本财年周息率料达6.5%。”

昨天,房屋及地方政府部长祖莱达推出《2018年至2025年房屋政策蓝图》时指出,将成立一个全国房屋系统数据库,收集各州对房屋需求量、所需房屋类型,以及价格等,以针对低收入群体需求,制定他们需要的房屋。

同时,房政部也计划把先售后建(STB)模式,转向先建后售(BTS),另外,往后在审批广告准证与发展商执照(APDL)时,也将把国人拥屋能力纳入考量中。




办展销会消化库存

另一方面,房政部3月将举行房屋展,借此销售总值225亿令吉的未售住宅产业单位,分析员认为,潜在购屋者可从中觅得心头好,同时有助解决房屋滞销问题。

对此,大马研究分析员在报告中指出,这对拥屋能力介于9万至30万令吉购屋者而言,绝对是好事。

“我们也看好这项全国拥屋计划,除了帮助发展商清除库存,同时也带来现金流,虽然赚幅稍微受损,但能节省银行利息,解决滞销问题。”

该行维持产业领域“中和”投资建议,预期该领域中短期内在盈利方面料持平。

“我们首选双威(SUNWAY,5211,主板工业股),因该公司产业项目地点好反应不错;东家(E&O,3417 ,主板产业股)地库包括槟岛的填土地点优越、新推介产业认购率强劲,并有能力清掉库存。”

此外,也看好马星集团(MAHSING,8583 ,主板产业股)的快速发展模式、推出更多可负担屋,及认购率高等优势。

湯文亮:弱方才會扣押人質

文章日期:2019年1月30日

【明報專訊】美國在引渡最後限期前兩日,才開記者招待會表示會起訴孟晚舟,不過,還未提出正式引渡文件。其實,全世界都知道,美國是要孟晚舟做人質,希望中國在中美貿易談判跪低,我認為美國可以起訴孟晚舟,但不能引渡孟晚舟做人質,否則的話,即是向全世界示弱,話畀全世界知道,美國要靠扣押孟晚舟做人質才可以在中美貿易談判中取得勝利。美國人或許不知道,從來只有弱勢的一方,才會扣押對手人質,如果是強勢的話,中國會自動送上人質給美國扣押,類似的事,在春秋時代不知出現過多少次,美國政府可能唔知,以為扣押孟晚舟做人質就可以令中國屈服,最後可能適得其反。

扣押孟晚舟 最後或適得其反

雖然現在美國已經表示會起訴孟晚舟,但仍然還有最後一步可行,就是向外表示,正因為中美貿易談判在進行,為免令人誤會美國是企圖用孟晚舟做人質以取得勝利,所以暫時不會引渡孟晚舟,但歡迎她到美國協助調查,這樣做不但有體面,並且可以幫助加拿大解圍。

現在小杜(加拿大總理杜魯多)非常頭痛,放人難,不放人更難。如果不放人,將會有更多加拿大人在中國被補;如果放,大佬的面色又唔係幾好睇。唯有用拖字訣,希望孟晚舟上訴,利用司法程序無限期延長,如果美國知道加拿大政府是會這樣做,就不應申請引渡孟晚舟。

加拿大不諳小國生存之道

其實,加拿大由一開始就已經做錯,即使大佬吩附,都唔好做得咁絕,又用腳鎖又唔准保釋。如果當初准孟晚舟保釋,即使孟棄保潛逃,也代表華為的確有不法行為,雖然美國或者會怪罪,但誰也不知道孟會棄保潛逃,中國就會十分多謝加拿大,這就是小國生存之道,小杜幼承庭訓,但很可惜沒有了解中國在春秋時代,小國是如何生存,任何一個小國如果太倚賴其中一個霸主,反而會很容易被其他大國殲滅,小國生存之道是很有學問。

紀惠集團行政總裁

[湯文亮 敢說反話]

https://www.mpfinance.com/fin/columnist2.php?col=1463481149913&node=1548790157019&issue=20190130

Tuesday, January 29, 2019

[转贴] LPI全年业绩看一看 - 蛤蜊先生

2019年1月28日星期一

伦平的业绩报告,开头的标题即是 “Commenceable Result in Challenging Period”。对伦平而言,在如今严峻的市场,仍能够取得持平,甚至稍微增长的业绩,已是难得。看来其他保险公司也好不到哪里去。

Q4业绩出炉,由于是最后一个季度,所以也可以把它当成全年业绩来看。

伦平全年营业额增长2.93%,至15.13亿令吉。

Gross Premium 收入增长3.38%,至14.69亿令吉。

净保费收入增长9.49%,至9.3亿令吉。

税前盈利4.05亿令吉,净利则是3.14亿令吉,几乎持平。

伦平的全年的净利几乎没有成长,除了营业额,主要原因是保险开放自由订价后,竞争加剧,导致给agent的佣金增加,加上索赔率也增加,所以直接拉低了净利的表现,净利赚幅从去年的21.3%,下跌至20.74%。

但是,如果把个别保险拆分来看,火险的表现依然呈双位数11.1%, 并且占了整个保险组合的42.4%。

另外,车险和医药险的表现也不错,但却遭到engineer insurance拖累,这个领域多属于被终止的大型基建工程。

股息方面,伦平将派发42sen,全年共派发68sen,总数额达2.7亿令吉(Payout Ratio:86.3%),比去年的2.39亿令吉,共增长13.3%,也就是变相的加薪!

伦平的营运现金流也从去年的3.14亿令吉,增长至3.81亿令吉,变现能力强劲。

至于,资本开销,仅有4.4m,因为保险业务主要是书面作业居多,所以无需巨大的资本开销,主要是买些新电脑,加强效率而已。

根据年报指出,自从国行开放自由定价机制后,市场的竞争加剧,许多保险业者相继推出各种优惠的保险产品,试图抢夺市场份额,而导致伦平的赚幅受到承压,尤其是车险和火险。再加上全球经济有放缓迹象,以及贸易战等等。

但,公司 会持续专注开发新的产品,加强各种销售渠道,与主要伙伴合作,以便增加市场份额。

总结:伦平的业绩与蛤蜊预测一样(猜4D都没有将准=.=),Q4达21sen,全年业绩78.83sen,以目前16.32股价计算,本益比达20。股息派发则比预期来得少,但依然保持增长,在如此环境,股息派发依然慷慨,不得不说声“谢谢郑老板!恭喜发财”。

全年股息68sen,DY 4.16%,和定存差不多。因此,放定存,不如投资伦平。所以,蛤蜊所收到的股息,会实行再投资的动作,长期滚大雪球。

最后,去年大马经历了50年以来首个政权轮替,整个经济局面动荡,基建工程相继停工,SST的上路等等,导致市场波动不已。如今,已步入全新的一年,相信市场会走向平稳,经济会慢慢爬回起来。不管怎样,我依然乐观看待大马的未来,当然也看好保险市场将会长久继续成长。


http://andersonleee0590.blogspot.com/2019/01/lpi_28.html

湯文亮﹕不會有現代「馬關條約」

文章日期:2019年1月29日

【明報專訊】上星期六去了浸會大學,聽李金強教授講現代中國崛起,當李教授講到「馬關條約」時,與特朗普的關稅相提並論,認為美國不會減少關稅,即使1%也不能減,與當時清政府在毫無議價能力之下,一字不改簽定日本開出的「馬關條約」一樣,我認為兩者有分別,可能李教授不了解日本人做生意手法,或者,這是學者與生意人對事件不同的看法。

要日本人改動合同極困難

我非常小的時候聽過一首民謠講台灣如何割讓給日本「台灣糖,甜津津,甜在嘴裏痛在心,要問此糖何處做,此糖做自台灣人,甲午年,起糾紛,鴨綠江中浪滾滾,中日一戰我軍敗,從此台灣歸日本」,這是我第一次聽到有關甲午戰爭的事。

我讀小學時知道,慈禧挪用建造北洋艦隊的經費來建造頤和園,導致北洋艦隊裝備遠遜日本艦隊,戰敗後簽訂「馬關條約」,賠償白銀二萬萬両。我讀中學時知道,此二萬萬両白銀足足是日本四年國民生產總值,日本利用該批賠償建造國內鐵路系統以及提高國民教育水平,至於在簽訂「馬關條約」時,日本是否要求一字不漏就不得而知,但我從其他文獻中知道,當時清政府願意簽訂更苛刻的條約,不過要立刻簽訂,但日本談判官員拒絕,並不是日本談判代表不想,而是改動是很麻煩的事,天皇甚至會認為日方談判代表不力,所以,日本代表一字也不願改動,其實是為了個人利益着想。這點與學者的理解不同,與日本有生意交易的人或者會明白,要與日本人改動已同意的條件是很困難的,即使是對他們有利都不可以。

美無必勝把握 才扣押孟晚舟

特朗普是生意人,有開價大還價賣本色,如果堅持全數關稅,而中國不接受就會兩敗俱傷,所以,遲遲未肯落實,美國鷹派有見及此,吩咐加拿大扣押孟晚舟做人質,此舉反而暴露了美國弱點,如果一定可以贏,點解要人質,在簽訂「馬關條約」時,清政府亦有不少皇室子弟在日本留學,日本並沒有扣押他們,鷹派可能是幫倒忙,從特朗普為了加息而大發雷霆,以及美聯儲局表示停止縮表來看,美國亦沒有足夠實力打勝貿易戰,現在雙方在找下台階,不過,貿易戰是會繼續打打談談,一定不會停止,更加不會簽訂什麼現代「馬關條約」。

紀惠集團行政總裁

[湯文亮 敢說反話]

Monday, January 28, 2019

油气股把脉(完结篇) 从资本开支试探油气股前景/冷眼


2019年1月27日



如果你比较油气股的股价走势,与全球油气业的资本开支的话,你会发现一个有趣的事实,那就是油气股股价基本上是跟全球油气业的资本开支同步升降的。

请看附表,2010年的资本开支为1530亿美元,由那一年起,逐步增加,到2014年达到2590亿美元,这是顶峰。

有趣的是,大部分油气股的股价在2010至2014年之间,也是逐步上升,于2014年达到顶峰。

由2015年起,资本开支逐步下跌,由2015年的2140亿美元,跌至2018年的1330亿美元,几乎回跌至2010年的水平,在这期间,油气股股价也跟着崩溃,跌得面目全非,有者跌幅超过90%。

股价与资本开支同步升降的现象,不难解释。

大马的油气公司,都是靠本国及国际油气公司赚钱的,如上所说,油气公司靠大马油气公司提供勘探,开采及支援服务,油气公司增加资本开支,表示他们在扩展业务,大马油气公司的营业量与盈利也跟着上升,股价随着上涨,是合理的现象。

当油气公司缩减资本开支时,大马油气股营业量和盈利暴跌,也是可以理解的。

为什么油气股的跌幅,比油气公司的资本开支更大?原来大马油气公司除了营业盈利大跌之外,他们对购置租给油气公司的设备,如船只、钻油台及设备等,都无用武之地,闲置的资产必须提供“资产减值”,这就使到大马油气股雪上加霜,蒙受严重亏蚀。

正如我曾指出的,大马油气公司都是债台高筑,当他们的业务剧跌,现金流量不足以应付利息开支时,破产的危机开始浮现,投资者都惊慌抛售,股价跌幅比资本开支大几倍,不足为奇。

新投资开始回笼

如今油气熊市已进入第5年,即使还没到底,相信距离谷底也不远了,因为若跌至50美元以下,大部分油气公司都会亏本,亏本的生意会越来越少人愿意投资,油气业将扭转劣势,牛市会静悄悄的回来。

在目前这个阶段,油气业处于巩固期,然而新的投资已开始回笼,没有人能预料这巩固期有多长,但国际的报道都异口同声的说油气业的最坏时期已过,只是难以确定何时起飞,或是起飞的高度有多高而已。

环球资料和国际能源署对全球油气业资本开支的预测,大同小异。

请看附表,环球资料预测,2018年是谷底,由2019年起,资本开支将逐年增加,到2025年时见顶,令人惊奇的是2025年的峰顶,跟2014年的峰顶几乎一样,都是在2500亿美元之间。

如果大马油气股的股价,跟全球油气业开支作出比例升降的历史重现的话,则油气股将苦尽甘来。

我在“怎样看待资产减值”中说过,当不利因素消失,“被资产减值”的资产价值上升时,有关资产是可以重新入账的,届时公司的盈利将大增。

如今大部分大马油气公司都因“资本减值”而大亏,当公司恢复盈利时,被减值的资产会不会重新估值而入账,届时盈利将大涨?

我曾就此问题,询问执业会计师,他们异口同声认为可能性不大,理由是有关公司在资本减值后,公司所动用的资产数额已大减,即使是盈利恢复油价崩溃前的水平,由于所动用的资产已大减,赚率无形中已大增,等于本小利大,为什么他们要将增值的资产重新入账?相信大部分公司不会这样做。



附加股售价奇低

部分大马油气公司,为了减低债务,选择发附加股,注入新资金,而附加股售价奇低,例如沙布拉能源的附加股售价只有30仙,还要10送1凭单,小股东仍不愿认购,导致国民投资机构有机会将股权由12%多增至40%,并将逐步增至47.4%(包括将优先股和凭单转为普通股)。

发附加股导致股数大增,即使有机会取得油价前的营业量(约100亿令吉)及盈利(约20亿令吉),每股净利亦将比例下降,但由于股价在30仙之下(1月24日),即使股价大不如前,还是有机会取得可观资本回报。

其实,国民投资机构在解释包销附加股时,“股价诱人”是原因之一。

即使大马油气公司,在全球资本开支上升中,取得更多合约,最少也需要一、两年,盈利才会浮现。

在这一、两年中,油气公司不会有特出表现,所以,只有准备长期投资(一年以上)的投资者,才能得利。

盼八戒痛击大熊

作为老报人,油气业对我来说也是外行人。找出真相是报人的习惯,看了堆积如山的资料——从油气股年报,研究报告及互联网资讯,对油气业也只能看到想到这些随手写出,真心跟大家分享。

如今,猪年已在时光隧道的转角处,我的感受是:

百行还是投(资)行好,诸股还是油股佳。

最后提醒大家,猪肉不是全部是香的,如果你闭着眼睛,也可能买到臭猪肉。

油气股亦如此,无论如何,我已在1月17日的“菜鸟必学七招”一文中列出选油股的七个条件,如果你还是买到臭肉或还要投机,就是咎由自取,不能怪我了。

在中国文化里,猪是财富的象征。

猪年伊始,愿猪八戒老兄抡起钢钯,迎头痛击,使大熊落荒而逃。

祝大家猪年顺遂。

油气股把脉(2) 投资上升 油气业晋牛市/冷眼

Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Mon, 28 Jan 2019, 01:12 PM
2019年1月26日



油气公司的盈利,取决于油价,油价是盈亏的关键。

至于成本,多数由每桶30至60美元,差距颇大,视油田开采之难易而定。

当油价上升时,油气开发可获厚利,就会吸引更多的资金,投入勘探挖掘及扩展现有开采活动。

大马上市油气公司的营业量和盈利都双双暴增,股价跟着上涨,买油气股的投资者均赚得盘满钵满,就好像2014年以前那样。

过去3年大出血

油气市场崩溃则后果刚好相反,油气股投资者过去三年均大出血,油价是罪魁祸首。

如果环球资料(GLOBAL DATA,是伦敦上市公司)的预测可靠的话,2018年是油气业熊市的谷底,由2019年起资本开支将恢复上升,可能是油气业牛市的开始。

如上所说,股票投资的成败,股价是关键所在。

而股价的起落,由两个因素决定:

第一个是公司的业绩,所谓业绩,是指盈亏,公司赚钱,股价上升,公司亏本,股价下跌,这种情况,如太阳由东方升起,西方下落那么肯定。

第二个是股市大势,牛市形成,无股不起,熊市成形,无股不跌。

预测业绩较容易

这两个因素,都难以预测,然而相形之下,预测公司业绩较预测牛市及熊市容易,也较可靠。这就是我选择基本面投资法的原因。

就以油气股来说,在过去四年(由2014年起),油气股股价一跌再跌。有者跌幅高达90%以上,沙布拉能源(SAPNRG,5218 ,主板能源股)由4.50令吉,跌至30仙。

此外,布米阿马达(ARMADA,5210,主板能源股)由2.40令吉跌至15仙;幸马泰资源(SUMATEC,1201,主板能源股)由60仙跌至半仙。

还有,巴拉卡岸外(BARAKAH,7251,主板贸服股)由1.80令吉跌至5仙等等,都是亏蚀严重导致的。

故今后4年(或更长),油气股股价的走势,仍取决于油气公司的业绩表现,当然,还要看股市的大势如何而定,但那是我们无法预测的,在不得已之下,只好集中预测业绩。

油气公司的业绩,取决于油价走势,油价走势决定于全球对油气的供求,要预测供求也不容易。

在“供应”方面,就错综复杂,除了传统油田之外,“页岩油”(SHALE OIL)的开发情况影响也很大。

除了供求之外,油价也受国际政治的影响,石油输出国组织(OPEC)的决定,冲击尤其大。

所以,要预测供应也难之又难,倒是“需求”方面的预测,较为容易,根据国际能源总署(IEA,一个权威组织,总部设在法国)的预测,由2018至2025年,油气的需求仍保持持高增长,由2020至2040年,增长将放缓。

从投资的角度看,一种原产品(石油为原产品之一)只要有需求,不断增长则即使有过剩,也是短期的,这就是原产品总是有周期的原因,而石油也不例外。

需求的上升,将使油价最终多数能回到合理的水平,使油气公司的投资取得合理的回报。

石油(以布兰特原油为准)在2008年时曾涨至每桶146美元,2016年时跌破30美元,两者都是短暂的现象。

油价60至80元回酬可观

长期来说,油价若能保持60至80美元,油气公司就可以取得可观回报,因为石油生产成本虽然差距甚大,但大部份介于40至60美元之间,页岩油生产成本多数约45美元。

故油价若站稳60至80美元,就是以吸引新的投资,以寻找油源及开发油田。

环球资料和国际能源署,就是根据这个油价作出石油资本开支的预测的。

[转贴] 金群利提前达12亿销售 李典和:将设更高目标

2019年1月27日



李典和(中)以一身“许文强”的打扮,让人耳目一新。

(芙蓉27日讯)金群利集团(MATRIX,5236,主板产业股)副执行董事主席拿督李典和披露,该集团提前两个月实现2019财年预定的12亿令吉销售目标。

他说,该集团的财年将于今年3月31日结束,惟该公司的董事及生意伙伴众志成城,提早完成原定的目标。

“来年我们还是充满信心完成集团设下的销售额12亿令吉目标,我们不排除会设下更高目标,朝该目标迈进。”

Chambers售85%

他昨晚在该集团于芙蓉达城d’Tempat乡村俱乐部举办“煌金上海”年宴致词时作出有关宣布。

他宣布,该集团首个进入吉隆坡的发展项目Chambers Kuala Lumpur服务式公寓,靠近吉隆坡太子世界贸易中心,已经售出85%单位,为该集团进入巴生谷的努力打了一支强心针,预计明年于蒲种推出另一项房屋计划。

他说,该集团于柔佛居銮的金峦城成为当地中等家庭的购屋选择之一,也帮助州政府制造就业机会及有助经济增长。

他也透露,《The Edge》2018年最佳产业发展商项目中,金群利集团列为大马最佳15间房地产公司,名列第13。

同时,他说,芙蓉达城的城中城计划,占地116亩及发展总值40亿令吉的巨型商业计划,目前该集团仍寻找策略伙伴,如医疗中心或营运单位。

今明年澳洲展开2项目

金群利集团首个冲出海外的发展项目,澳洲的发展项目大获成功,该集团将于今年及明年展开两项房屋发展项目,总值达1亿澳币(约2.96亿令吉)。

李典和指出,该集团于澳洲墨尔本卡纳基的M.CARNEGIE精品公寓大获成功,已售罄、建竣并移交房屋给购物者。

“我们集团对澳洲的发展项目深感信心,决定在澳洲扩充地库,于澳洲北区的格林维尔和圣柯达收购土地,预料今年4月及明年分别在两个区域推出房产项目。”

雅加达发展回教金融区

他说,该集团于2018年10月与PT. Bangun Kosambi Sukses和印尼P.T. Nikko Sekuritas签署联营协议,联营发展印尼雅加达的一个回教金融区,预料于2019年进行。

他还透露,该公司于达城科技谷的工业化建筑系统厂房已完成,于今年第一季投入生产,为该集团提供预制的建筑材料,有助改善房产素质,减少依赖技术员工和外劳。



http://www.enanyang.my/news/20190127/金群利提前达12亿销售-李典和将设更高目标/

曾淵滄﹕真正熊巿沒避險股

文章日期:2019年1月28日

【明報專訊】恒指由一年前的高位33000點向下跌,至去年10月底跌至24500點水平後反覆回升,至今回升3000點。到底過去一年港股是處於牛市還是熊市,至今依然是許多專家爭辯的話題,有人認為恒指由去年1月高位跌至去年10月的低位只是牛市調整,情况類似美股,也有人說,港股牛市於去年1月已經結束,進入熊市,目前的回升只是熊市反彈。

實際上,過去一年,不少個別板塊的股價一升再升,逆市創新高,對這些股份而言,怎麼看也不可能是進入熊市,只有一些板塊在近期恒指大反彈的時候,依然在低位徘徊,看來的確進入熊市,也就是說,以恒指來衡量牛市或熊市已經失去意義,港股進入大型的個別發展,不同板塊的表現差異巨大,如果你持有的股在去年能逆市上升,你看到的就是牛市,相反的,如果你持有的股票在近日其他股份回升時依然在低位徘徊,你看到的就是熊市。

港股轉為個別發展 板塊差異大

去年初,當恒指由高處向下跌時,我就多次建議大家買入「避險股」,傳統的避險股包括公用股,如中電(0002)、港燈(2638)、煤氣(0003),也包括頂級房託如領展(0823),幸運地,這幾隻避險股不辱使命,在過去一年,股價再創新高。

我認為,只要市場裏存在避險股,這個市就是牛市,恒指大跌小跌都只是牛市調整,因為真正的熊市是沒有避險股的。

或者說,從去年至今,並且包括可預見的將來,香港股市都處於一個我稱之為「政策市」的階段,隨着美國、香港、中國內地政策之變而變,而上述避險股就是因為與政策無關,所以有避險能力。

於「政策市」應估計政策變化

政策市就得估計政策的變化,去年初開始,美國總統特朗普發動中美貿易戰,第一回合,美國佔上風,但打不倒中國,現在特朗普眼見打不倒中國,有可能退一步,希望能在得到一些好處後就暫時停戰,特朗普態度改變使股市回升。另一方面,中國政府為了應付貿易戰,不得不做最壞打算,新「4萬億基建計劃」,甚至「10萬億基建計劃」已經準備好了,這項應戰的政策,使多隻股票股價創一年新高,甚至歷史新高,包括新創建(0659)、中鐵(0390)、中鐵建(1186)、太古(0019),中國在5G通訊技術的領先也為股市帶來新的炒作概念,鐵塔(0788)、中移動(0941)、中電信(0728)成了熱炒概念股。

大學教授

[曾淵滄 滄海明珠]

https://www.mpfinance.com/fin/columnist2.php?col=1463481132566&node=1548617130377&issue=20190128

陸振球﹕長沽必輸

文章日期:2019年1月28日

【明報專訊】因沽空次按證券勁賺而一舉成名的「沽神」保爾森(John Paulson)宣布或一兩年內將旗下基金改為家族辦公室,相信是跟其基金近年大蝕近八成、大量客戶將資金撤走有關。其基金多年來仍主力沽空,並大手押注買金,但多年來股巿持續攀升而金價卻受壓,以致其基金風光不再。

投資界有句名言——長沽必輸!皆因如非以槓桿操作,沽空的投資物價值最多歸零,即最多可賺100%,這還未計成本,但理論上投資價格上升可以無限,所以長沽輸的機會一定高於贏錢,沽空只能是絕對快狠準的短線操作,電影《沽注一擲》(The Big Short)便有模擬保爾森沽空次按的情節,電影中的基金經理雖最終大賺,但過程中也曾被挾倉挾到暈。所以透過沽空賺錢,必定要藝高人膽大,且要緊記長沽必輸!

不過,沽空除了是因為直接看跌某類資產價格,也可作為套戥或Pair Trade操作,即是未必看到大巿方向,但認為某類資產如A會相對跑贏,或是B會相對跑輸,便可同時買入A沽空B,就算是A和B同時下跌,只要A跌得多過B便可賺錢。就如去年10月以前,美股跑贏香港,之後美股追跌,如看得準,可以在去年初以前,買入美股標普指數的ETF,同時買入看跌港股的恒指逆向ETF(沽空港股),到10月則轉為買盈富(2800)而同時買入標普指數的逆向ETF(沽空美股),透過港股和美股的Pair Trade獲利。

明報投資及地產版資深主編

[陸振球 主編的話]

Saturday, January 26, 2019

Tong's Value Investing Portfolio as of January 24, 2019

There are “real” (non rent-seeking) corporate heroes

Pretenders to the throne, please be seated.

Last week, I wrote about some of our public and private sector successes in embracing technology and delivering quality services efficiently and effectively. This proves that Malaysians have the capability, given the right environment.

I truly hope that going forward, we will see greater concerted efforts by the government to cultivate entrepreneurship amongst young Malaysians – by ensuring equal opportunity through regulatory frameworks that will dismantle monopolies and rent-seeking proclivities while promoting a level playing field and fair competition.

Malaysian companies can succeed and not just at home. We can compete effectively against regional and global peers. A good example would be QL Resources, a homegrown company that has done very well and in industries that are extremely competitive, no less. Incidentally, QL was chosen as The Edge Billion Ringgit Club Company of the Year in 2011.

The company was listed on the Bursa in March 2000 with a market capitalisation of RM100 million. Today it is worth more than RM11 billion. That is equivalent to a compounded annual growth rate of nearly 30% in the 18-year period.

QL truly is a rags to riches story and should be an inspiration to all budding entrepreneurs. It is living proof that success can be had with imagination and innovation, determination and hard work.

The business started as a small family endeavour, collecting seashells from nearby beaches – founder, Chia Song Kun, is from a family of fishermen – and selling them to poultry feed millers (for their calcium). From there the business expanded, brick by brick, vertically (upstream and downstream) and horizontally as well as geographically.

For instance, the marine products division went from collecting and selling seashells and later, fish and prawn (aquaculture farming and deep sea fishing) to value added products like fishmeal and surimi (fish paste) and further processing into chilled and frozen consumer food (fish balls, fish cakes, crab rolls/chunk, seafood tofu, etc.) as well as seafood snacks.

The latter are sold under house brandnames such as Mushroom, Suria, OceanRia and Ika’s, available wholesale and retail in hypermarkets. Its most recent venture, the FamilyMart chain of convenience stores, fits right in with its foray into front-facing consumer food business. Many of the products sold in the stores are sourced from its own businesses.

From the trading and distribution of animal feed, the company diversified into poultry farming, with broilers, breeder and layer operations. The palm oil business expanded from crude palm oil milling to oil palm plantation in Sabah and East Kalimantan, Indonesia.

Today, QL is amongst the largest fishmeal, surimi and egg producers in ASEAN, with marine and poultry operations in Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam and China. Its wide range of consumer foods is exported worldwide, across Asia, Europe and North America.

All of QL’s businesses operate under extremely challenging business environments with segments of the industries having relatively low barriers to entry. But its success and track record is evidence that QL has managed to extract maximum returns through ingenuity, integration, scale, productivity and strong execution.

Another homegrown success story, one that is absent of patronage and economic rent seeking, is Muhibbah Engineering. The company has competed successfully against larger global peers in securing high profile projects all over the world.

For instance, it completed the RM2.2 billion catering facilities contract at Doha International Airport, and is working on 3 other contracts to construct economic zones for the Qatar government at a total value of RM708 million.

Muhibbah’s construction and cranes divisions currently have a combined orderbook of RM1.85 billion, of which 66.4% are from Malaysia, 16.6% from the Middle East (mainly Qatar) and 14.8% from other Asian-Pacific countries.

Founded in 1972, Muhibbah has evolved from being a small local contractor to a global player, a leading crane manufacturing arm that has supplied some of the world’s tallest and most iconic buildings and a stake in Cambodia’s airport operations that provides steady income.

InsiderAsia was the first research house to extensively cover the stock and recommended a BUY in Sept 2005 when its market cap was only RM100 million. Today, its market cap is RM1.34 billion, representing a compounded annual growth of 22% over the last 13 years.

From 2004 to 2017, net profit has grown from just RM8 million to RM132 million. Muhibbah also won 3 awards at the recent The Edge Billion Ringgit Club Awards 2018.

Over the years, it has restrategised itself from being a general contractor to a specialist in 3 main areas: marine, oil & gas, and airport, buildings and infrastructure.

In 2013, Muhibbah was awarded a Petronas licence to bid for projects, and has since successfully won a number of jobs, including for the RAPID project in Johor.

Muhibbah’s crane manufacturing arm, Favelle Favco, derives 72% of sales overseas and has 5 manufacturing plants in 4 continents. The cranes complement the group’s construction activities. They are used in oil & gas installations as well as many of the world’s most iconic buildings such as the Burj Khalifa, KL 118 Tower, Shanghai Tower, 1 World Trade Centre and Taipei 101.

A jewel in Muhibbah’s crown is its 21% stake in the concession for the operation of 3 international airports in Cambodia, in partnership with French conglomerate Vinci SA. The airport concessions, in Phnom Penh, Siem Reap and Sihanoukville, will run till 2040 and provides strong steady incomes. The airports enjoy double-digit annual passenger arrival growth, with 8.8 million passengers in 2017. Passenger arrivals for the nine months to Sept 2018 rose 21% to 7.6 million.

I believe the lesson is that Malaysian private enterprises are more than capable, provided it is allowed to operate in a fair and conducive environment, absent of vested interest intervention through the government.

I say this again, there are opportunities even in the most cutthroat of businesses and with vision, creativity, perseverance and hard work, success is achievable. I have highlighted two living proofs here. I do not doubt that there are many similar success stories, and yet others perhaps in the early stages as QL and Muhibbah were 15-20 years ago.

Stocks in my Global Portfolio ended flattish for the week. Total returns now stand at –13.3% since inception. This portfolio is under-performing the MSCI World Net Return Index, which is down by a lesser -4% over the same period.

There were continued signs of selective bargain hunting on the local bourse. Stocks in my Malaysian Portfolio ended mostly higher. Nevertheless, the buying was visibly less broad-based. Both the FBM Emas and FBM Small Cap index closed flattish for the week but continue to outperform the FBM KLCI for the year-to-date.

Last week’s gains lifted total portfolio returns to 50.9% since inception. This portfolio continues to outperform the benchmark index, FBM KLCI, which is still down 7.4%, by a long way.


 


Performance Comparison Since Inception (%)
%-7.450.9-15-10-50510152025303540455055
  • Tong's Value Investing Portfolio
  • FBM KLCI
SHARES HELDQUANTITYAVERAGE COSTCOST OF
INVESTMENT
CURRENT
PRICE
CURRENT
VALUE
GAIN /
(LOSS)
GAIN /
(LOSS)
SCGM BHD11,0661.73219,218.41.23013,611.2(5,607.2)(29.2%)
AJINOMOTO (M) BHD1,50011.81317,720.018.64027,960.010,240.057.8%
PANASONIC MANUFACTURING MSIA60026.15717,182.038.10022,860.05,678.033.0%
Y.S.P.SOUTHEAST ASIA HOLDING10,5002.41325,340.02.71028,455.03,115.012.3%
FORMOSA PROSONIC INDUSTRIES18,0001.54027,720.01.80032,400.04,680.016.9%
HONG LEONG INDUSTRIES BHD2,0009.12618,251.09.25018,500.0249.01.4%
WILLOWGLEN MSC BHD19,9000.5009,950.00.4709,353.0(597.0)(6.0%)
MALAYAN BANKING BHD3,00010.25030,750.09.62028,860.0(1,890.0)(6.1%)
ECO WORLD DEVELOPMENT GROUP BERHAD15,2001.23518,772.00.96014,592.0(4,180.0)(22.3%)
DIALOG GROUP BHD5,7003.45219,676.43.05017,385.0(2,291.4)(11.6%)
SAM ENGINEERING & EQUIPMENT3,0007.38022,140.07.33021,990.0(150.0)(0.7%)
POH HUAT RESOURCES HOLDINGS13,0001.49019,370.01.53019,890.0520.02.7%
Total  246,089.8 255,856.29,766.44.0%
        
Shares bought       
No transaction.       
        
Total shares held  246,089.8 255,856.29,766.44.0%
        
Shares sold       
No transaction.       
        
Cash Balance    45,954.3  
Realised Profits / (Losses)    92,044.0  
        
Change since last update Jan 17, 2019       
Portfolio      0.9%
FBMKLCI      0.6%
        
        
Portfolio Returns Since Inception  200,000.00 301,810.4101,810.450.9%
Portfolio Returns (Annualised)      11.9%
        
Portfolio Beta      0.625
Risk Adjusted Returns Since Inception      81.4%
        
        
Performance ComparisonAt Portfolio StartCurrentChangeRelative Portfolio Outperformance
FBM KLCI1,829.71,693.6(7.4%)58.3%
FBM Emas12,700.411,719.8(7.7%)58.6%
Footnote: 
*Current price is as at January 24, 2019. 
*Portfolio started on Oct 10, 2014 with MYR200,000. 
*This is a personal portfolio for information purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or solicitation or expression of views to influence readers to buy/sell stocks.

STOCKS SOLD IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS (Currency: MYR)
SHARES SOLDDATE BOUGHTDATE SOLDQUANTITYAVERAGE 
COST
COST OF 
INVESTMENT
PRICE SOLDSALES 
PROCEEDS
GAIN /
(LOSS)
GAIN /
(LOSS)
CLASSIC SCENIC BHD01-Dec-1627-Jul-174,0001.4135,651.31.7907,160.01,508.826.7%
PANASONIC MANUFACTURING MSIA21-Jan-1627-Jul-1740026.12510,450.037.10014,840.04,390.042.0%
ELSOFT RESEARCH BHD30-Mar-1724-Aug-178,0001.84414,750.02.65021,200.06,450.043.7%
JOHORE TIN BERHAD - WA 12/1704-May-1724-Aug-1717,0000.65511,135.00.68011,560.0425.03.8%
FOCUS LUMBER BERHAD03-May-1730-Aug-176,0001.6609,960.01.5309,180.0(780.0)(7.8%)
WILLOWGLEN MSC BHD23-Nov-1630-Aug-177,0000.7685,377.01.43010,010.04,633.086.2%
WILLOWGLEN MSC BHD23-Nov-1628-Sep-177,0000.7705,377.01.1808,260.02,883.053.6%
LII HEN INDUSTRIES BHD14-Dec-1628-Sep-175,0002.82014,100.03.72018,600.04,500.031.9%
COMFORT GLOVES BERHAD28-Aug-1708-Dec-1725,0000.96024,000.00.93023,250.0(750.0)(3.1%)
JOHORE TIN BHD08-May-1708-Dec-179,0001.60014,400.01.18010,620.0(3,780.0)(26.3%)
THONG GUAN INDUSTRIES BHD12-Dec-1608-Dec-175,0004.24321,215.04.10020,500.0(715.0)(3.4%)
KERJAYA PROSPEK GROUP BERHAD12-Jan-1715-Mar-1811,0001.02511,280.01.54016,940.05,660.050.2%
KERJAYA PROSPEK GROUP BERHAD - WARRANTS B 2018/202308-Mar-1815-Mar-183,0000.0000.00.330990.0990.0-
LUXCHEM CORPORATION BHD30-Aug-1715-Mar-1816,5000.73212,072.50.72011,880.0(192.5)(1.6%)
WILLOWGLEN MSC BHD14-Dec-1722-Mar-1820,0001.01020,200.01.26025,200.05,000.024.8%
MUAR BAN LEE GROUP BERHAD26-Oct-1722-Mar-1813,5001.24016,740.01.17015,795.0(945.0)(5.6%)
CHOO BEE METAL INDUSTRIES BHD07-Sep-1716-May-188,0002.19017,520.02.44019,520.02,000.011.4%
CHOO BEE METAL INDUSTRIES BHD07-Sep-1721-May-188,0002.19017,520.02.30018,400.0880.05.0%
SUPERLON HOLDINGS BHD01-Dec-1721-May-186,0001.1757,050.01.5509,300.02,250.031.9%
OKA CORPORATION BHD14-Dec-1728-Jun-1812,0001.54118,488.01.27015,240.0(3,248.0)(17.6%)
SUPERLON HOLDINGS BHD01-Dec-1728-Jun-186,0001.1757,050.01.2107,260.0210.03.0%
WILLOWGLEN MSC BHD14-Dec-1728-Jun-181000.50050.00.54054.04.08.0%
PANTECH GROUP HOLDINGS BHD17-May-1802-Aug-1843,0000.58024,940.00.56024,080.0(860.0)(3.4%)
KERJAYA PROSPEK GROUP BERHAD10-Jan-1706-Sep-1811,0001.02011,225.01.40015,400.04,175.037.2%
LUXCHEM CORPORATION BHD25-Aug-1706-Sep-1816,5000.71711,825.00.65510,807.5(1,017.5)(8.6%)
HOCK SENG LEE BHD19-Apr-1806-Sep-1814,5001.52022,033.01.37019,865.0(2,168.0)(9.8%)
GENTING MALAYSIA BERHAD06-Sep-1828-Nov-183,8005.07019,266.03.06011,628.0(7,638.0)(39.6%)
TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD06-Sep-1806-Dec-183,6005.50019,800.06.03021,708.01,908.09.6%
MAH SING GROUP BHD28-Jun-1814-Jan-1919,0001.00519,095.00.93017,670.0(1,425.0)(7.5%)


A Note to Readers

It is my pleasure to share with you my Value Investing Portfolio. However, I must emphasize that it is by no means a recommendation or a solicitation or expression of views to influence you to buy or sell any stocks. I am just sharing openly on what I am doing with my stock portfolio.

Further, I like to remind all investors that investing is not just about the profits or returns. You will inevitably suffer stock losses too. You need to understand your own investment objective, risk appetite and the amount of loss you can afford to bear. So, while many investors talk only about absolute returns, I am also sharing the computed risk-weighted returns of my portfolio.

Tong Kooi Ong