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Thursday, June 20, 2019

Graduan IPT tinggalkan kerja, tanam cili, terima pulangan RM60,000

Bernama

Empat rakan karib yang mempunyai kelulusan dari pelbagai institusi pengajian tinggi dan institusi kemahiran tempatan nekad untuk mengusahakan sebidang tanah terbiar di Kampung Musa, Mukim Pedu di Padang Terap dengan menanam cili secara fertigasi.

Berbekalkan modal RM20,000 untuk peralatan tanaman, benih dan penyediaan medium tanah, Mohd Safri Mahmud, 25, Mohd Amiludin Afiz Wahab, 26, Mohd Irfan Azri Anas, 25, dan Mohd Shafiq Hakimi Nordin, 25, memulakan projek mereka Oktober lalu, dengan menanam 4,000 pokok cili di kawasan tanah seluas kira-kira 0.3 hektar.

Mohd Safri, lulusan Universiti Sultan Zainal Abidin, Kuala Terengganu, berkata idea untuk mengusahakan projek itu tercetus selepas beliau menanam 1,800 pokok cili di sekitar rumahnya di Kampung Musa, Mukim Pedu lebih setahun lalu dan mendapat permintaan tinggi.

Beliau berkata selepas melihat potensi dan kejayaan mengusahakan tanaman itu di tepi rumah, 3 rakannya yang masing-masing sebelum ini mempunyai pekerjaan membuat keputusan berhenti kerja dan menyertainya untuk menanam cili.

“Mohd Amiludin sebelum ini bekerja sebagai polis bantuan di Pulau Langkawi, Mohd Irfan Azri sebagai pereka grafik di sebuah pasar raya di Alor Setar dan Mohd Syafiq pula kerja kilang di Sungai Petani. Kesemua ambil keputusan berhenti kerja dan balik kampung tanam cili bersama saya,” katanya ketika ditemui pemberita di tapak projek tanaman itu.

Mohd Amiludin merupakan lulusan Institut Hasani, Sungai Petani, manakala Mohd Irfan Azri Anas dan Mohd Shafiq Hakimi Nordin lulusan Kolej UNITI, Port Dickson.

Mohd Safri yang mengetuai projek itu berkata, beliau dan rakan-rakannya menggunakan teknik fertigasi bagi tanaman cili mereka kerana menjimatkan masa dan mengehadkan penggunaan tanah selain menjimatkan penggunaan air antara 30 dan 50% berbanding teknik tanaman tradisional dengan menanam terus di atas tanah.

Beliau berkata hasil tanaman mereka juga selamat untuk dimakan kerana menggunakan baja dan vitamin yang dihasilkan sendiri secara organik tanpa penggunaan racun kimia.

“Sistem kawalan air pula lebih cekap untuk memastikan pokok cili mendapat bekalan air dan nutrien secukupnya…sumber air dan nutrien yang mencukupi menjamin kualiti buah cili dihasilkan, berkilat dengan saiz besar dan panjang serta berat.

“Pokok-pokok ini ada diletakkan di atas tanah yang dilapik plastik khas dan sebahagiannya digantung dalam beg tanaman dan dalam dua minggu lagi kami akan tuai hasilnya untuk dijual secara borong atau jual sendiri di kantin sekolah dan pasar pagi,” katanya.

Katanya, beliau dan rakannya menyasarkan setiap pokok yang ditanam mampu menghasilkan 2kg cili yang mampu dijual antara RM7 dan RM10 sekilogram.

Menurutnya, hasil pertama tanaman yang baru diusahakan 2 bulan itu dijangka dituai dalam masa 2 minggu lagi dengan keseluruhan hasil tuaian dianggarkan berjumlah 8 metrik tan yang mampu menjana pendapatan sebanyak RM60,000.

Bagi Mohd Amiludin Afiz, beliau berharap projek itu dapat membuahkan hasil lumayan dan menyasarkan untuk membuka lebih banyak kebun baru bagi tanaman itu bagi memenuhi permintaan.

“Saya harap ada bantuan dari pihak berwajib untuk kami buka 4 lagi kebun baru agar hasil pengeluaran berterusan bagi memenuhi permintaan tinggi di pasaran,” katanya.

Sementara itu, Pegawai Pertanian Daerah Padang Terap, Mohamad Yuzaidi Azmi berkata projek berkenaan yang menggabungkan kawalan tanaman menggunakan kaedah kultura, biologi, dan mekanikal dipilih sebagai ladang contoh oleh Jabatan Pertanian daerah ini.

“Kebaikan tanaman ini hasilnya lebih selamat untuk dimakan, hasil lebih tahan lama dan berkualiti serta pengeluaran lebih banyak dan pokok mampu bertahan dalam mengeluarkan hasil sehingga enam bulan.

“Kita akan membantu memberi rumah lindungan hujan kepada pengusaha, dan keperluan lain yang sesuai,” katanya ketika dihubungi Bernama, mengenai projek tersebut.

Rezeki cili gantung



TUAN Mohd Kamarul Hisyam menunjukkan cili yang diusahakan menggunakan kaedah fertigasi gantung berhampiran rumahnya.

Siti Rohana Idris
am@hmetro.com.my

TUMPAT: Siapa sangka usaha bakal graduan ini yang pada mulanya sekadar mencuba nasib dalam bidang pertanian iaitu penanaman cili akhirnya membuahkan hasil lumayan.

Penanaman cili menggunakan kaedah fertigasi gantung sejak dua bulan lalu diusahakan Tuan Mohd Kamarul Hisyam Tuan A Talib, 25, di depan rumah keluarganya di Kampung Telaga Lanas, Pengkalan Kubor.

Meskipun tidak memiliki pengetahuan berkaitan pertanian, Tuan Mohd Kamarul Hisyam sanggup mengambil risiko memulakan penanaman cili di tanah seluas 0.4 hektar milik bapanya.

“Sebelum ini, saya tercari-cari aktiviti berfaedah untuk mengisi masa lapang sementara menunggu majlis konvokesyen Oktober depan.

“Saya mendapat pendedahan mengenai teknik penanaman cili daripada rakan sebelum diperkenalkan kepada konsultan dan menghadiri kursus sehari,” katanya.

Anak kelima daripada enam beradik itu berkata, dengan bantuan abangnya mereka menanam 2,700 beg cili membabitkan kos RM30,000.

Menurutnya, tanaman cili berkenaan mula mengeluarkan hasil pertengahan Mac lalu dan setakat ini jumlah tuaian sudah mencecah empat tan.

“Saya menetapkan sasaran untuk mengutip hingga sembilan tan cili. Hasil tanaman dijual kepada pemborong di Pusat Transformasi Luar Bandar (RTC) Tunjong pada harga RM6 untuk sekilogram.

“Selepas bergelar graduan nanti, saya mungkin mencari pekerjaan mengikut bidang pengajian yang diambil namun akan meneruskan usaha ini dengan bantuan keluarga,” katanya.

Artikel ini disiarkan pada : Jumaat, 19 April 2019 @ 6:30 AM

Cili - Berbaloi sangat!



NUR Hashimah menunjukkan hasil tuaian cili merah.

Mohamad Hussin
mohamad_hussin@hmetro.com.my

Kuala Lumpur: “Walaupun terpaksa berpanas dan berhujan ia bukan masalah kerana sekarang saya memang bersemangat untuk berbakti kepada tanah. Saya tidak mahu menoleh ke belakang lagi kerana semua ini demi kelangsungan hidup saya.

“Saya pasti dan kerap berdoa supaya terus berjaya dalam bidang pertanian,” kata ibu tunggal, Nur Hashimah Mahmood, 38.

Usahawan tani itu mengusahakan tanaman cili merah fertigasi, timun dan rock melon di sebuah ladang di Bukit Pelanduk, Port Dickson, Negeri Sembilan, sejak tiga tahun lalu.

Nur Hashimah berkata, dia nekad berhenti kerja dari sebuah syarikat swasta kerana mahu serius dalam bidang pertanian.

Dia terdorong untuk serius dalam bidang pertanian selepas melihat rakannya yang mengusahakan tanaman cili padi di Kluang, Johor, mendapat pulangan lumayan.

“Walaupun tidak ada pengalaman dalam bidang perniagaan, tanpa berfikir panjang saya berhenti kerja, malah adik-beradik terutama abang menyokong keputusan saya.

“Saya kemudian mengikuti kursus teknik fertigasi anjuran Pertubuhan Peladang Kawasan Kuala Langat (PPK Kuala Langat) sebelum menyewa tanah seluas 1.2 hektar di Bukit Pelanduk.

“Buat permulaan saya mengeluarkan modal sebanyak RM24,000 untuk mengatur kelengkapan fertigasi termasuk membeli 2,000 anak pokok cili yang diuruskan PPK Kuala Langat,” katanya, ketika ditemui, semalam.

Menurutnya, dia kemudian membeli tambahan sebanyak 4,000 pokok cili menjadikan jumlah keseluruhan 6,000 pokok cili.

Sepanjang proses itu, dia sendiri yang melakukan kerja membaja dan meracun bagi memastikan tanaman fertigasi diusahakan sentiasa berada dalam keadaan baik serta subur.

“Setiap hari saya akan ke ladang untuk melihat dan memeriksa pokok cili. Saya memilih cili kerana mudah dijaga. Apatah lagi menggunakan kaedah moden yang tidak memerlukan tenaga kerja yang ramai.

“Menggunakan penanaman secara fertigasi, saya tidak perlu membajak tanah, merumput mahupun meracun. Apabila sampai masa, saya akan menggantikan pokok lama dengan benih baru menggunakan beg semaian sama.

“Malah, sistem pengaliran air secara moden sangat menjimatkan tenaga kerja. Saya hanya perlu memasang alat jangka masa di tangki bekalan di mana ia akan membekalkan air secara automatik mengikut masa yang ditetapkan,” katanya.

Katanya, penanaman cili dapat memberi hasil yang cepat iaitu dalam tempoh lima hingga enam bulan.

“Bagi musim pertama tuaian membabitkan 2,000 beg semaian, saya memperoleh kira-kira lima tan cili dengan pendapatan RM30,000 membuatkan saya terus bersemangat dan serius dalam bidang ini.

“Selain cili, saya juga mengusahakan tanaman giliran timun dan rock melon (4,000 pokok) kerana mahu pelbagaikan jenis tanaman selain mengikut permintaan semasa,” katanya.

Ibu kepada dua cahaya mata berusia sembilan dan 13 tahun itu berkata, soal pemasaran juga tidak menjadi masalah kerana semua cili dituai dihantar ke Pusat Pengumpulan Hasil Pertanian (PPHP) melalui PPK Kuala Langat.

“Jabatan Pertanian Negeri Sembilan juga banyak membantu daripada segi khidmat nasihat. Selain itu saya juga banyak menimba pengetahuan melalui pembacaan di laman maya.

“Apabila mendapat hasil pertama, ia sangat memberangsangkan serta menambahkan keyakinan saya untuk menjadikan penanaman cili sebagai kerjaya baru,” katanya.

Artikel ini disiarkan pada : Jumaat, 2 November 2018 @ 10:46 AM

MBM Resources - Bye-bye OMI Alloy

Author: AmInvest | Publish date: Thu, 20 Jun 2019, 10:19 AM

Investment Highlights
We maintain our BUY call on MBM Resources (MBMR) with a higher FV of RM4.05/share from RM3.41/share based on an FY20F PE of 9.0x.
We raise our FY19/20/21 core net profit forecast by 15%/19%/7%. This is to account for the cessation of the alloy wheel plant which has been a dampener on its earnings and lower finance cost with cash proceeds of RM74.4mil from the disposal of its 22% stake in both HMSM and HMMM used to pare down its borrowings.
Key points from our meeting with management on Monday:

1) Operations of OMI Alloy ceased. MBMR has fully ceased the operation of its alloy wheel plant effective June 2019. We are positive on this update, and we expect MBMR to attain better valuations on the back of earnings improvement in the future as OMI Alloy has been a drag on the group’s earnings. We had earlier projected OMI Alloy to post a net loss of RM30.0mil for FY19 and FY20 due to the plant’s low utilization. Hence, the cessation of plant is expected to lift the group’s earnings ahead. The group assured that the supply of alloy wheels to Perodua will not be disrupted as there are arrangements for two other companies to fill the void left by OMI Alloy, namely Pako Automotive and Citic Dicastal. We believe that it is in the group’s interest to avoid a supply disruption for Perodua, which is a 22.6%- associate of MBMR.

2) New SUV launch from Perodua in 2H2020. The group guided that Perodua will be launching a new SUV in 2H2020. It is said to be a smaller version of the Perodua Aruz. We believe that this will be a 5-seater SUV since Perodua already has two 7-seaters in its product mix, which is the Alza and Aruz. We are excited about the launch of this model as it is expected to be affordably priced and would serve as a direct competitor to the upcoming Proton X50.

3) Cash proceeds from recent disposal of stakes in HMSM and HMMM to be used to pare down borrowings.Recall that MBMR recently announced a disposal of its 22% stake in both HMSM and HMMM for a cash consideration of RM74.4mil. The group guided that the cash will be fully used to pare down the group’s borrowings. With that, we tweaked our estimates to factor in the lower interest expense for FY19 onwards. We are positive on this update as the lower finance cost will boost the group’s earnings.
We believe that MBMR will continue to shine as a proxy to Perodua’s dominance in the local automotive space. We are excited about the group’s future expansion plans either organically or via more joint ventures with established names to further build on its distribution and auto parts business.

Source: AmInvest Research - 20 Jun 2019

周顯﹕一個撈偏年輕人

文章日期:2019年6月20日

【明報專訊】有一名年輕人,幾年前同朋友夾檔,搞了兩間餐廳,其中一間很快倒閉了,另外一間的經營也頗為困難。我觀察了他一段時間,終於忍不住對他說:「你一晚賭錢都十幾皮上落,點做這些家爺仔乸小生意,我看你的性格為人,還是適合撈偏,反正你又有人脈,不如全身投入撈嘢,更加有前途。」

說這番話時,我難免想起《武狀元蘇乞兒》中,老鬼新同蘇乞兒講,他完全是一個入型入格的乞兒。

其實,在近年,許多行業都變成夕陽工業,連賭業疊碼也在走下坡,唯一還有高速增長的,是加密貨幣、網上賭場、賭波、啤檔等等,個個大款都幾百億身家,好過做細價股多多聲。

於是,這名年輕人便入行了,有一次,他手上有幾百萬元,想還卡數,我斥責了他一頓:「出來撈嘢,爭卡數咪還住最低還款額,用幾百萬元來錢搵錢,如果你連卡息也賺不到,不如轉行好過了。」

這幾年,他也算做得頗為好景,欠下的債務,也有幾千萬元了。要知道,撈賭的欠債愈多,意即生意愈好,財源滾滾來。有一晚,他由於壓力太大,呼吸不到,辛苦地睡不著,打了個電話給他的uncle,他的uncle是做正行的,但也識得世面,在電話即時向他開拖,斥喝說幾千萬元好小事,按個摩快點睡,實在太沒用了。

[周顯 投資二三事]

Wednesday, June 19, 2019

Top Glove - Margins to Recover Next Quarter

Author: HLInvest | Publish date: Wed, 19 Jun 2019, 10:53 AM

9MFY19 core PATAMI of RM299.5m was below expectations. The results were below mainly due to a spike in prices of natural rubber during the quarter (+22.0% QoQ) and the subsequent lag in ASP revision which affected margins. We expect this to reverse in 4QFY19 given that prices have been revised upward since May (+8.8%). Maintain BUY and TP of RM5.31, based on FY20 earnings pegged to a PE multiple of 26x.

Below expectations: 9MFY19 core PATAMI came in at RM299.5m (-11.0% YoY), accounting for 68.2% of our and 65.1% of consensus estimates. The results were below mainly due to a spike in prices of natural rubber during the quarter (+22.0% QoQ) and the subsequent lag in ASP revision which affected margins. We expect this to reverse in 4QFY19 given that prices have been revised upward since May (+8.8%).

Dividend. Declared first interim dividend of 3.5 sen/share going ex-2nd July 2019.

QoQ. Revenue improved by 2.6% in tandem with volume growth of 2% QoQ. EBITDA declined 23.3% QoQ to RM182.3m, whilst EBITDA margin declined by 4.0 ppts to 11.7% (from 15.7%). This is attributed to a 22% increase in latex prices in 2Q19 and the subsequent time lag associated with passing on the cost to customers (note that latex accounts for 45.0% of production costs for Natural rubber gloves). Core PATAMI declined by 3.1% despite a lower tax expense (8.6% vs. 15% in 2Q19 – due to a write back for an overprovision – we expect subsequent quarters tax rate to normalize on a full year basis c. 18%-19%). In computing our core PATAMI we added back RM15.0m of forex losses.

YoY. Revenue grew 8.1% to RM1.19bn (from RM1.10bn) from higher volumes sold (+9%) whilst ASP was flattish. The volume growth mainly came from the nitrile (+25%) and surgical (+29%) offset by vinyl gloves (-42%). EBITDA declined 20.4% YoY (to RM139.7m) and margins eroded by 4.2ppts due to the sharp spike in natural rubber prices associated with a multitude of factors; (1) wintering season (February to May) (2) the run up to the Thai elections saw rubber prices boosted and (3) the ongoing drought in Thailand. PBT declined 38.7% YoY to RM82.2m due to a higher interest expense (+58.0% YoY) due to M&A and organic expansion. Subsequently, core PATAMI declined 29.7% YoY (to RM89.5m after adjusting for FX losses amounting to RM11.4m vs RM1.2m in 3Q18). A higher effective tax rate (16.0% vs. 12.0% in 3Q18) accentuated the decline.

YTD. Revenue improved to RM3.61bn (+20.5%) attributed namely to higher volumes (+15% YoY). The volume growth mainly came from nitrile (+35%) and surgical (+75%) offset by vinyl gloves (-25%). EBITDA improved to RM518.6m (+11.2%), whilst EBITDA margins declined 0.9ppts (to 14.3%) due to higher raw material prices and competitive pressures. Core PATAMI of RM299.5m (-11.0%) exhibited negative growth YoY due the same above mentioned factors- namely commodity swing and higher finance costs.

Capacity expansion. We understand that F32 1st phase (Nitrile/Latex) and F33 (Latex) are operational and currently producing. In 2HCY19 we will see additional 1.2bn pieces of new installed capacity. This implies that in CY19 TG will increase new capacity to a maximum of 4.6bn pieces or 7.6% YoY, which is well within the range of the annual demand growth (see figure #2).

Outlook. ASP for the latex segment has already been revised upward from May onward (+8.8%) which should normalize margins moving forward, ceteris paribus (c.15%-16% at the EBITDA level). Aspion achieved an EBITDA of RM40.6m and as such, no impairments were necessary. We expect Top Glove to conclude FY19 on a better standing on improved profitability QoQ.

BioGreen. Top Glove recently launched its bio-degradable nitrile examination gloves. The product is proven to decay 10x faster compared to existing conventional nitrile gloves. We understand that it has been well received in developed nations (EU, Japan and USA). Management didn’t share the product’s pricing, however given the recent global enthusiasm on environmental issues and recent rubbish dumping by western nations to Malaysia and alike; we can expect Top Glove to leverage this product to their benefit.

Forecast. We adjust our FY19 earnings downward by 9.3% as we recalibrate our model with higher average latex prices for FY19. However, FY20-21 earnings are unchanged as the ASP price revision in May should help preserve margins going forward.

Maintain BUY, TP: RM5.31. Maintain TP of RM5.31 and our BUY call. Our TP is based on FY20 earnings pegged to a PE multiple of 26x. We like Top Glove for its more diverse product mix and its prime position to chip away market share.

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 19 Jun 2019

Top Glove Corporation Berhad - Dragged By Higher Input Costs

Author:   |    Publish date: 


Top Glove reported a weak set of results with 9MFY19 earnings falling by 12.5% YoY to RM290.5m. This came in below both our and street estimates at 67% and 63% respectively. The discrepancy in our forecast was due to lower operating cost assumption. Lackluster results were attributed to the sharp rise in raw material prices and time lag in fully passing on the higher costs, which usually takes 2-3 months. Top Glove’s margins were compressed as a result. To account for the higher cost, we revise our operating cost assumption upwards and cutting our FY19F and FY20F earnings by 10% and 5% respectively. We reiterate our Underperform call but our TP is revised up to RM4.15 (RM3.75 previously) as we rollover our valuation to CY20, based on 22x PER, which is in line with 5-year sector average. Top Glove also declared an interim dividend of 3.5sen per share, unchanged compared to last year.
  • Revenue improved but hit by higher cost. Top Glove reported revenue of RM1.19bn (+2.6% QoQ) in 3QFY19, underpinned by stronger sales (+2% QoQ). ASP for nitrile gloves was revised upwards marginally (+3% QoQ), but the ASP for latex gloves was flat (-1% QoQ), despite the sharp increase in natural rubber prices (+22% QoQ). Time lag in ASP revision and intensified competition has resulted in margins erosion. Correspondingly, EBIT fell 28.3% QoQ to RM150.7m and EBIT margins declined to 8.8% this quarter (as opposed to 12.5% in 2QFY19). Lower tax expense of RM7.1m, due to the reversal of overprovision in income tax, has helped to slightly cushion the impact of latex prices increase. Net profit was also down by 29.5% QoQ to RM75.2m.
  • Segmental Information. In this quarter, China operation continues to suffer from a loss of RM1.8m, due to the oversupply condition of vinyl gloves in China. The sales volume of vinyl gloves fell by 32% QoQ. ASP for vinyl gloves fell c.28% YoY to USD11.50 per thousand pieces. Thailand also reported lower profit of RM3.5m (-35%QoQ), in tandem with the lower revenue of RM91m (-5.7% QoQ) reported.
  • Aspion. Contributed RM139.4m to the Group’s topline this quarter. Impairment assessment conducted showed that no impairments needed to be made at this juncture, since Aspion is able to generate sufficient cashflow to offset the goodwill recorded in the books of Top Glove. While the Group remains committed to make Aspion more profitable going forward, Aspion is not expected to contribute to the Group’s bottomline meaningfully in the near term.
  • Outlook. F32 1st Phase (+2.2bn pcs p.a) has begun production approximately one month back, with 8 lines commissioned. Plant F33 (+1.2bn pcs p.a) has also recently began producing. Construction of vinyl glove plant in Vietnam is underway, which will allow Top Glove to take advantage of the lower labor and lower energy cost considering that factories can use coal-fired burners in Vietnam. The vinyl glove factory is expected to be ready by mid CY2020.
Source: PublicInvest Research - 19 Jun 2019

Top Glove aims to be biggest nitrile glove producer

CORPORATE NEWS
Wednesday, 19 Jun 2019

“If we work very hard, we would be able to achieve that goal(biggest nitrile glove producer) by the end of this year,” said Top Glove executive chairman Tan Sri Lim Wee Chai during a conference call here yesterday.

PETALING JAYA: Top Glove Corp Bhd
image: https://cdn.thestar.com.my/Themes/img/chart.png is targeting to be the biggest nitrile glove producer in the world by the end of this year with total production of between 25 billion and 30 billion gloves per year.

The largest glove manufacturer in the world has been busy ramping up its nitrile gloves output in the past two years.

“If we work very hard, we would be able to achieve that goal by the end of this year,” said Top Glove executive chairman Tan Sri Lim Wee Chai during a conference call here yesterday.

Additionally, he said the company is expected to increase its nitrile glove production by 15.8 billion more next year.

In total, Top Glove would increase its production capacity to 83.3 billion gloves per year in 2020.

Lim said the company has been spending on average RM400mil per year in capital expenditure for the expansion of its manufacturing plants.

“Top Glove’s nitrile export growth had grown almost 36% or 4.9 billion gloves year-on-year in 2018, which was faster than the Malaysia’s nitrile export growth of 18% or 15.8 billion gloves y-o-y,” Lim said.

On the trade war between China and the United States, Lim said that the glove industry would not be affected.

“Any war is not good. We expect that the trade war would not have a big impact on us and the glove industry as a whole,” he pointed out.

CIMB Research had earlier said the trade war would increase the prices of all China glove exports that could benefit Malaysian glove makers.

For the third quarter ended May 31, Top Glove’s net profit fell 36.5% y-o-y to RM74.67mil from RM117.57mil a year ago, due to a surge in the price of natural rubber latex.

This was despite higher revenue recorded during the quarter, which grew 8.1% y-o-y to RM1.19bil from RM1.10bil thanks to higher sales of nitrile gloves.

Cumulatively, for the first nine-month of FY19, Top Glove posted a 12.5% decline in net profit to RM290.5mil compared to RM332.03mil a year earlier.

Revenue for the period rose 20.5% to RM3.61bil from RM3bil previously.

Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/06/19/top-glove-aims-to-be-biggest-nitrile-glove-producer/#fbOePoZt0GTbGwiK.99

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

[转贴] 咖啡罐投資法

作者:The Science of Hitting | 2019 / 06 / 18

文章來源:GuruFocus | 圖片來源:HuaHua

在 “The World According to Boyar” 第一集的節目當中,主持人 Jonathan Boyar 訪問 Booner & Partners 的投資策略長 Chris Mayer。在這一集 podcast 當中,Mayer 討論到一篇 30 年多前發表於投資組合管理期刊( The Journal of Portfolio Management)中,由 Robert Kirby 所發表的文章 “咖啡罐投資組合”,以下是 Kirby 在文章中主要提到的趣聞:

我第一次運用咖啡罐投資的時間是在 1950 年中,當時我在大型的投資諮詢公司工作,公司絕大部份的客戶都是個人。我們常跟客戶說,我們的任務是保護你的資本,而非創造資本。如果你想要自己的資產大幅提升,應該要雇用其他人來幫忙你;我們的功用在於保護客戶的財產,讓這些財產能提供相對應的生活所需。

當然,我們是這麼做的。這個投資諮詢就如同傳統的模式一樣,簡單地確保客戶不會有太多的風險,因為突然的事故而讓他們的資產及生活水平受到損害。也就是當你最成功的投資標的價值成長之後,或許你可以出售一些部位,並將這些資產移轉到其他變得比較便宜、較不成功的投資標的。這個過程讓資本從最活躍——通常也是最被高估的公司,移轉到較不活躍——通常也是可能被低估的公司。

當我服務某位女性客戶的時候,這個過程所帶來的影響讓我感到相當地驚訝。她的丈夫是一位律師,負責處理她所有的財務,他也是我們的主要聯絡人。在他突然去世之前,我為他提供服務已經有 10 年的時間了。這位女士繼承了他所有的財產,她打電話給我們,要求將她的證券加到我們管理的投資組合底下。當我們收到資產的清單時,我很高興發現了他之前偷偷地將我們的建議加到他妻子的投資組合當中。

接下來,當我看到總資產的時候,我嚇呆了。他稍微地修改了我們的建議:他毫不在乎我們給他的賣出建議。他簡單地以 5 千美元買進所有我們建議的股票,接著他就把文件扔進保險箱裡,忘了有這回事。

當然,他的投資組合看起來有點奇怪。他擁有一些金額較低的持股,各別的金額低於 2 千美元;他也有許多金額較高的持股,個別金額超過 10 萬美元。其中有一個持股金額高達 80 萬美元,這個金額比他妻子其他的投資組合總計還要高。這來自於一間小公司 Haloid,後來它變成很多股的全錄(Xerox)。

這些數字相當地驚人。經過 10 至 15 年的時間,有一些部位的價值成長了 20 倍,而有一檔股票甚至有 100 倍的成長(或許你會好奇,這檔股票從 5 千美元經過 15 年成長至 80 萬美元,是 40% 的年化報酬率)。

假設這是一個 20 支股票的投資組合(從每一檔股票價值 5 千美元開始),3 檔股票成長了 20 倍,1 檔股票成長至 80 萬,11 檔股票成長至 1 萬,而剩下的一半假設損失了它所有的價值,這樣的話整個投資組合的價值會是 120 萬美元,也就是經過了 15 年成長了 12 倍。

對投資人來說,最實際的問題是要達到這樣的結果,你必須要等整整 15 年才能夠實現(當然你不可能預先知道結果)。很有可能在這段期間當中,你最大的持股會下跌 20% 以上,你的配偶、客戶或某個電視上的人可能會跟你說你應該作出行動。紙上談兵的兩三次大跌總是比自己親身經歷來得還要容易很多,當有快速高達 50% “紙上獲利” 出現時,你也不會眼睜睜地看它消失。

而創造投資機會的必要條件——波動,它既是祝福也是詛咒,這是人性的現實面(這點與令人難以理解的 “理性人” 性格相反)。研究顯示,不管你有多聰明,都是一樣的。

那麼我們可以怎麼做呢?我注意到自己敬重的投資人都會設置一些相當制式的規定,讓他們面對短期市場波動時,有一個遵循的原則,顯然他們都察覺到了我們都會受到短期市場的波動而影響心情。Geoff Gannon 舉了一個例子:

「我一直覺得賣出是很難的一件事。但隨著時間的經過,一直到我決定了三個準則,情況才變得比較好。第一件事情是,不要在買進股票的一年內賣出,這裡的原則在於讓買進的原因發酵之前,不要賣出股票。因此構成了這個嚴格的原則:“不要在買進股票的一年內賣出”。」

顯而易見地,反方可能會說:“那如果它在 6 個月之內翻倍,且股價比我自己預估的公平價值還要高呢?” 這是有可能發生的。但我猜 Gannon 可能會說:這是我願意付出的代價。這個 “嚴格的原則” 能夠避免你買進一檔股票,經過幸運地數周之後產生了 10~20% 的獲利就馬上賣出。他的原則讓你能夠避免頻繁交易的心態,就不用再問 “我是否至少該賣出部份持股呢?” 承諾自己會持有至少一年的期間,能夠確保你專注於長期(Geoff 稱之為 “投資的心態”)。

這個相同的概念讓我想到 “咖啡罐投資法”,這也是一個讓你遠離頻繁交易的心態,並轉向投資的心態。我認為在現在的這個時候,說得比做得還要簡單(即使我們並不想要承認這件事)。與其擔心是否能夠準確的預估股價與價值之間的比值,或都是股價是否能夠有 10~20% 的成長,應該要讓你自己盡其所能地專注於長期公司的前景,專注於尋找優質企業,並以合理的價格買進,如此一來,你就能夠持有它數年的時間(並順利渡過市場波動的時期)。

Kirby 在討論 “咖啡罐投資組合” 時,找到了正確的解答:“這個方法之所以會成功,依賴的是一開始選擇放進咖啡罐的項目所蘊涵的智慧與先見之明。”

這是一個構建決策的有趣方式,當你無法賣出時,最重要的是你買進的是什麼。這有點像是巴菲特(Warren Buffett) 20 個打洞卡的變形。重點在於縝密的決策制定,特別是一開始就許下長期的承諾時,很有可能在很久以後會產生高品質的結果。
結論

現在的投資人有的是無盡的資訊以及接近 0 元的手續費,但我認為這些好處有它的限制存在。舉例來說,在你一天只能從報紙接受到一次資訊時,遠離市場上的噪音是很容易的事情;此外,低成本的線上交易也讓投資組合的週轉率提高了。這樣的情況,長期將會使一般的投資人績效變得較差。

在投資的世界裡,絕大部份的事情並非絕對的黑與白。我並不認為 “咖啡罐投資組合” 是完美無瑕的(想想全錄在數十年後的表現就知道了,這就像是 Kirby 提到的 “反面的驚喜”)。但我認為這個方法當中有數個優點能夠對投資人有所幫助。

特別是 “咖啡罐投資組合” 買進並持有的特性,對於大部份的投資人來說,是相當有益的。這就像是使用 Gannon 嚴格的原則,並將它展延更長的一段時間。我認為這樣混合主動和被動的投資策略,能夠讓你以不同於其他市場參與者的角度思考。與其關心公司短期銷貨成本無預期的增加,不如關心更重要的問題:這間公司 5 年、10 年以及 20 年後會是如何?如果你能夠正確地回答這個問題,其他的事情只是一些無關大雅的干擾。

https://www.stockfeel.com.tw/咖啡罐投資法/

Monday, June 17, 2019

[转贴] 研究了120名白手起家的億萬富翁, 5個習慣讓他們受益終身

打破神話!揭開億萬富翁成功的秘密

我們通過進一步研究發現,大部分白手起家的億萬富翁身上都具備以下幾個特質:

好奇心:爆品創意的源泉

當我們研究白手起家的億萬富翁和他們企業的發展過程時,我們也像很多人一樣,認為發現商業靈感的過程應該是神奇的,偶然的,甚至是幸運的。實際上,他們的靈感並不是隨機、瞬間冒出來的,相反,大多數情況下,億萬富翁都是花費幾年、甚至幾十年時間,長期在特定領域積累知識經驗,然後才一鳴驚人。

通過調查億萬富翁群體,我們發現,好奇心跟能否提出成就億萬價值企業的想法有直接關係。觸發他們靈感的常見方式有:

1)閱讀信息



代表人物:迪特里希·梅特舒茲

紅牛創始人迪特里希·梅特舒茲是在《新聞周刊》上讀到了日本某品牌糖漿能量飲料公司的事蹟,才想到成立能量飲料公司的。那時候,梅特舒茲還在一家德國化妝品公司工作,常去亞洲出差,喝過這種飲料來抵抗時差,效果不錯。梅特舒茲推斷這種飲料能賺大錢。

2)跨學科學習



代表人物:史蒂夫·喬布斯

蘋果公司的史蒂夫·喬布斯、美國在線的史蒂夫·凱斯,他們選擇就讀鼓勵跨學科學習的文理學院。凱斯說,“在變化飛快的世界裡,人文教育能讓我們將不同觀點融合起來,感受周圍事物,知道如何尋找事物之間的聯繫。就像拼樂高,所有積木放到桌子上,你如何以有趣的方式重新拼裝這些積木。”

3)社會學習

代表人物:馬雲



阿里巴巴創始人馬雲曾經每天騎自行車去杭州賓館,給那裡的商務人士做導遊。這麼做既鍛煉了英語能力,又問了商業人士很多問題,比如為什麼喜歡在中國工作。這段經歷幫助他看到,如果某個系統讓交易簡單,就會有潛力。因此他啟動了中國黃頁項目,把中國企業信息放到網頁上,後來他又創建了阿里巴巴,進行B2B、B2C、C2C交易。

行動力:好機會偏愛“長跑型選手”

億萬富翁並非天生就知道什麼時機正確。他們與普通人的差異在於,會在時機到來之前先做好各種準備,包括了解市場、做好早期投資和找准市場定位。

柳井正(Tadashi Yanai)是日本迅銷集團的CEO,也是大眾服裝品牌優衣庫的老闆。20世紀80年代,柳井正步入社會工作時,他父親開了幾間服裝店,專門銷售男士正裝,當時日本很多人做這種生意。日本人對正裝的偏好也導致服裝業不夠發達,很少有店賣休閒服裝。柳井正不想做他父親做的那些生意。

那時候,柳井正已經出國旅遊多次,在香港地區,他看到“中國製造”的零售產品在廉價銷售;在美國,他看到Gap到處流行;在英國,他看到瑪莎百貨(Marks&Spencer )很受歡迎。這些品牌以實惠的價格銷售經典款服飾,日本卻沒有這樣的品牌。



於是,柳井正急切採取行動來彌補這個缺口。1984年,他在廣島開了第一家優衣庫商店,銷售價格實惠的高質休閒服裝。不到七年,優衣庫就成了日本最大的休閒服裝零售商,光1990年就開了33家店鋪。

我們認為,在一個不確定性的世界裡運營,就要平衡好耐心和行動力,清楚什麼時候最需要什麼。就像跑馬拉松,你不會想“還剩下22公里要跑”,但是會想“已經跑了兩公里了,我要跑到三公里處”。

創造性:好生意各個層面都滲透著“設計感”

價值億萬的生意到處都存在設計,憑藉細節的魔力,即使是小眾市場也能變為大規模市場。

今天,走進任何一家星巴克,你都能清楚地感受到店裡的環境經過精心設計:從咖啡豆的味道到咖啡機的擺放,以及如何讓咖啡師在調咖啡、煮牛奶並將煮好的濃咖啡放到白色托盤上時面對顧客……

霍華德·舒爾茨早些年擔任CEO時,曾做了很多運營上的決定,把星巴克打造成一個顧客願意停留的地方。其中一個重要方面就是員工福利,他堅持即使是兼職人員,也應該享有正規的醫療保險,並藉此招到素質更高、更忠誠的員工,讓店裡營造出一種溫馨、友好又重視服務的氛圍。試想,如果星巴克員工沒那麼忠誠,那麼星巴克的客戶體驗會如何呢?

舒爾茨在維護星巴克的消費體驗方面沒有商量的餘地。2007年,他忍痛將一系列盈利的早餐三明治下架,理由是員工在加熱三明治的時候,經常在烤盤上留下烤糊的奶酪痕跡,這樣星巴克就變得跟其他充斥著烤焦奶酪的刺鼻味道的地方毫無區別了。



那時正處於金融危機最艱難的時候,舒爾茨寧願虧本也不願破壞星巴克形象,因此他停止供應三明治,告訴食品開發部門再嘗試設計新食物。

冒險精神:比起失敗,更怕錯失良機

企業家敢於冒險已經是商界文化中的老生常談,我們原本也以為研究對像是終生熱愛冒險的。比如維珍集團創始人理查德·布蘭森爵士,他冒險家的身份同他企業家的身份一樣出名,他無數次嘗試駕駛熱氣球環球世界,不止一次墜毀,差點兒死掉。

儘管這種故事豐富多彩,但僅僅是例外。商業世界風雲變幻,並非所有賭注都會成功。我們發現,對於億萬富翁這一群體,真正的風險並非嘗試失敗,而是錯失良機。他們風險的承受能力並不比普通商人高。問題的關鍵不在於風險容忍度,而在於對待風險的態度。億萬富翁不會高估風險,也不會冒不合理的風險。

企業家更願意冒險其實是個“假象”。《從掠奪者到偶像》一書提到,很多所謂的高風險交易應該描述為“不對稱”交易才對,商業代表性人物知道某項資產或市場的價值,而他的競爭對手不知道。在某些情況下,他們還擁有其他一些資​​產,能夠使一項收購變得更有價值。

合作力:完美的團隊,互補的技能

人們談及巨大成功時,普遍覺得成功人士都是單打獨鬥的天才,這種想法反而掩蓋了好想法成為好生意的真實故事。我們的調查對像中,超過一半的億萬富翁創業時都以“高價值創造者+執行者”團隊開始。一些有名的例子包括:

蘋果公司的史蒂夫·喬布斯(高價值創造者)和工程師史蒂夫·沃茲尼亞克(執行者);

耐克的比爾·鮑爾曼(Bill Bowerman高價值創造者)和菲爾·奈特(Phil Knight執行者);

Zara的創建者阿曼西奧·奧爾特加(Amancio Ortega高價值創造者)和他的第一任妻子羅薩莉亞·麥拉(Rosalia Mera執行者)

商業學者通過大量的20世紀90年代的實證研究發現,由合夥人創建的公司比那些獨資企業主創建的公司要更成功。為何會出現這種現象?

我們很少有人是純粹的高價值創造者和執行者,大多數人傾向於執行者一端,一部分原因是我們天生傾向於做執行者,另一部分原因是我們所處的環境認可、獎勵執行,這就造成了“執行循環”:公司裡的執行者會慢慢升到領導者地位,主導企業組織,然後提拔其他執行者,結果公司無法跳出執行者思維,無法從整體上考慮問題。

因此,“高價值創造者+執行者”建立起長期的合作夥伴關係,雙方才能發揮最大優勢,實現巨大價值。

在失敗的絕望中,不忘重新開始

畢加索一生畫了數千幅畫,但是只有少數幾幅稱得上是傑作。

很多億萬富翁的生意都經歷過多年增長緩慢,產出乏力,甚至遭受徹底失敗。大多數白手起家的億萬富翁只有在第二次、第三次或第四次創業後才能爆發。我們調查的樣本中,94%的億萬富翁都創辦或經營過不止一個企業。

即使有些億萬富翁年輕時就已經獲得了億萬財富,似乎也要歷經艱辛才能獲得那些技能。很多億萬富翁是利用“等待時機”的空窗期,讓自己對即將到來的機遇做好準備。



而且所有白手起家的億萬富翁都經歷過驚心動魄的挫折,很多人碰上這些挫折後可能早就放棄了,但他們沒有。

中國第一位女首富、玖龍紙業創始人張茵早些年因拒絕與競爭對手同流合污而受到黑道組織的威脅,而她一直維持良好信譽,並沒有選擇妥協;

達拉斯小牛隊的老闆、連續創業者馬克·庫班,他被秘書騙走公司全部現金流後,不得不重做他的第一筆大生意MicroSolutions;

1996年,68歲的石油巨頭T.布恩·皮肯斯曾被自己花費數十年創立的美薩石油公司掃地出門。皮肯斯不缺錢,本可以享受退休生活,結果他帶了5名員工和一張桌子成立了一家資本管理公司,現在80多歲依舊在工作。

這些故事絕非個案,很多白手起家的億萬富翁在做企業員工時工作都不穩定,其中25%的億萬富翁都曾被公司解僱或排擠出去過。

“沒有什麼能一直順利,你總會碰到幾次重大問題。事情最糟糕時,你就尋找積極的方面。”瑞聯集團創始人史蒂芬·羅斯說。

皮肯斯很少糾結他經歷過的低潮,而是更多考慮職業生涯中的收穫,“有悲傷的日子、糟糕的日子、令人害怕的日子,但是那種日子會在回憶中慢慢淡去,最後你記住的永遠會是那些好日子。”

謝謝大家!

http://www.value101.net/article.php?id=11075

湯文亮:撤或不撤 這是一個問題?

文章日期:2019年6月17日

【明報專訊】香港人被一條沒有迫切性的《逃犯條例》搞到小則頭暈,大則分化,父子兄弟朋友可能反目成仇,不過,雖然這條《逃犯條例》沒有迫切性,但牽連甚廣,在有心人士演繹之下,變得人人自危,竟然出現一個號稱百萬人大遊行,最後演變成騷亂,政府必定要小心處理,但無論結果如何,政府今次將會失很多分,如果現在選立法會議員,我相信建制派會大敗,因為市民埋怨那些親政府議員沒有做好把關工作,建制派這十幾年努力白費了。

有老友問,以現在這個情况,政府撤抑或不撤,叫我用最簡單而肯定說話回答,這是大塊文章,又怎可以三言兩語說得到?撤與不撤都有理由,簡單來說,如果是中央硬任務,不撤,如果是林鄭想邀功,撤,或者雖然是中央硬任務,在這緊要關頭中央話撤,都不能夠承認這是中央硬任務,林鄭這隻死貓一定要食。

中央任務不能說 死貓要硬食

一定會有很多官員替林鄭不值,明明是中央硬任務,點解要林鄭食死貓?其實,這是官場與商場的分別,在商業社會,下屬替老闆食死貓簡直是閒過立秋,我未見過一個從未替公司食死貓的管理人員可以坐到最高位置。老實說,食死貓亦要有多少天份,香港的政務官從大學畢業就入了政府工作,管理一定沒有問題,但食死貓就不是太多官員懂得。

老友再問,今次《逃犯條例》修訂搞到一鑊粥,究竟出了什麼亂子?我認為政府的公關工作做得不夠,在林鄭上任後成立一個俗稱搵地小組的土地供應專責小組,有30位成員,如果大家睇名單,就知道一定搵唔到地,這亦是政府的目的。18個月後,搵地小組話搵唔到地,政府於是推出各種方案,包括與地產商協商補地價,收回棕地,以至明日大嶼填海計劃,反對的聲音就會減少很多,搵地小組所做的原來是公關工作,小組主席黃遠輝了解之後非常火滾,我覺得是人之常情。

無論撤不撤政府已失分

很多人都知道,政府今次是借台灣殺人案而修例,最初泛民只有微弱反對聲音,如果政府趁機話泛民反對而對受害人的母親表示愛莫能助,將個波交畀泛民,泛民如果表示反對修例就要做醜人,如果表示不反對,政府就趁機修例,退而求其次成立一個諮詢小組,搞一年半載大龍鳳,最後是否能夠修例,政府都沒有失分,現在撤與不撤,政府都已經失了太多分,以後要有效管治就很困難。

紀惠集團行政總裁

[湯文亮 敢說反話]

周顯﹕惡法通過 年輕人才有機會上位

文章日期:2019年6月17日

【明報專訊】日前我說過,在我的立場,反而希望股市大跌1萬點,才有渾水摸魚的希望。畢竟,股市永遠是大升大跌,有能力的人才能賺錢,相反,如果平穩地慢升小調整,則富者愈富,貧者愈貧,窮人更加沒有翻身的機會。

在上周四晚,我同做傳媒的友人在佐敦興記食蟹吹水,我笑說,如果我是年輕人,反會寧願惡法快點通過,香港暴亂,武警入城,股市跌剩幾千點,樓市大跌七成,把中產階級和上層社會的錢統統洗走,重新來過,就算香港永不復生,也隨時有發達的機會。

這即是說,如果股市跌至幾千點,反彈至1萬點,也是升了一倍,樓市跌了七成,反彈至跌五成,也等於升了七成,原來的資產階級固然仍然是輸到跳樓,但有勇氣的年輕人依然有機會贏到發達。這就像2003年之後,香港就有不少年輕人是憑此發達的。

有趣的是,現時反而是資產階級拼命想令到《逃犯條例》通過,焦土派反要用武力去反對條例,由此可以見得,很多人都不是從投資者發達的角度去想的。

這又令我想到一個故事,就是很多年前,有某位共產國際的巨頭人物和周恩來見面,挑釁說:「我是貧中下農出身,你的父母卻是資產階級,可見得我的階級成分比你好得多。」

周恩來不慌不忙地回答:「我們都出賣了自己的階級。」

[周顯 投資二三事]

Sunday, June 16, 2019

Tong's Value Investing Portfolio as of June 13, 2019

Tong Kooi Ong

Why I bought more of Alibaba now

Stocks around the world have bounced back with a vengeance from the selloff in May. Whilst the jury is still out as to whether a trade deal between the US and China can be had, equity markets have been given a lease of life – by the US Federal Reserve.

The US central bank hinted that it would cut interest rates should there be signs that the domestic economy is weakening on the back of ongoing trade conflicts and global economic slowdown. If the Fed does in fact reduce rates, it could trigger a fresh round of monetary easing worldwide.

Several countries have cut rates this year, including Bank Negara Malaysia. Lowering the price of money will buoy asset valuations, including stocks and property. Already we are seeing bonds and stocks, once again, rallying in lockstep. The S&P 500 index is only 2.5% off its all-time high.

One stock that has borne the brunt of selling related to recent trade war fears is Alibaba, which lost about one-quarter of its value from the beginning to end of May. Its share price fell from a high of US$195 to as low as US$149 during the month.

The stock is highly visible and an easy target for investors selling the trade war theme, which unfortunately, also coincided with the emergence of an indiscriminate seller, its second largest shareholder, Altaba.

Altaba was created as a spin out from the remains of Yahoo!, after the latter’s operating business was acquired by Verizon Communications. Its only assets are shares in Alibaba – some 283 million (about 11% stake) at end-March 2019 – and cash.

In early April, Altaba’s board of directors approved a plan to dispose all of its Alibaba shares (through the open market and/or private placements) and shut down by end-2019. Up to half of the 283 million shares are to be sold before its special shareholder meeting, to approve the liquidation and dissolution plan, scheduled for June 27. Between May 20 and June 7, its holdings in Alibaba were pared down to 223 million shares.

Alibaba’s share price has recovered some lost ground over the past few days. It is possible the stock overhang could exert more downward pressure in the near-term. That said, the issue is by now a known risk factor in the market, therefore quite likely priced into its share price.

Current valuations are attractive relative to the company’s long-term growth prospects. The stock is trading at forward PE of roughly 24 times. By comparison, Amazon shares are priced at nearly 60 times estimated earnings. Alibaba’s valuations also compare well against traditional retailers like Walmart (22 times), Costco Wholesale (30 times) and Target (15 times) – and the company has much stronger growth outlook.

Alibaba reported topline sales growth of 51% for the financial year ended March 2019, to RMB376.8 billion or equivalent to roughly US$54.5 billion. Excluding new acquisitions, organic growth was still a robust 39%.

Management guided for revenue to hit RMB500 billion in FY2020, which translates into an estimated growth of 33%. By comparison, Amazon’s revenue grew 31% in 2018 to US$232.9 billion while Walmart reported 2.8% revenue growth for its financial year ended January 2019.

Unlike Amazon, whose profits come primarily from its cloud business, Alibaba’s core commerce operations are highly profitable with Ebitda margin of 42.1%. Core commerce accounted for 86% of total revenue, of which 90% is derived from the domestic Chinese market (primarily through its Tmall and Taobao platforms). The company’s international wholesale and retail platforms include AliExpress and Lazada.

Alibaba intends to expand its e-commerce footprint to lower tiered cities in China, leveraging its Alipay customer base, and targets to add 150-200 million new users in the near future. Although the average spend per user is lower, the potential for growth remains as disposable incomes rise.

The company plans to digitise the entire retail value chain under its ‘new retail’ strategy, and to provide seamless online-offline services as well as promoting stronger alignment between vendors and customers.

The rest of its businesses, such as cloud computing, digital media and entertainment and food delivery platform, Ele.me, are still in the investment stages and loss making. But strategically, these ventures together with its 33% stake in Ant Financial, serve to strengthen Alibaba’s ecosystem (and user database) across a broad swath of the economy.

Alibaba Cloud is amongst the four largest cloud providers in the world, that includes Amazon, Microsoft and Google. Revenue for the segment grew 84% in FY2019. The business is not yet profitable as Alibaba focuses on gaining market share. But the business is widely seen to have strong prospects – on the strength of its one-stop suite of products and features, from basic infrastructure (IaaS) to big data analytics, machine learning and artificial intelligence applications. The company is rolling out more data centers around the world and especially in fast-growing Asia Pacific region, where it currently holds a dominant market share.

Alibaba’s free cashflow generation remains strong, totalling some RMB104.5 billion in FY2019. Coupled with net cash totalling RMB68.9 billion, the company can support further investments in and grow its other ventures.

The e-commerce giant is reported to be finalising a submission for secondary listing in Hong Kong, likely to happen within the next few weeks. The exercise is estimated to raise up to US$20 billion, which will further boost its war chest.

Perhaps more importantly, trading closer to home and in the region where the company has a strong business presence could result in better valuations and provide some buffer to the trade war discount. Shares for Tencent Holdings are currently trading at forward PE of around 30 times.

My Global Portfolio continued to fare well in the week ended Thursday, gaining 1.0%. This raised total portfolio returns to 5.3% since inception. The portfolio is outperforming the MSCI World Net Return Index, which is up 4.6% over the same period. Following the latest acquisition of 150 additional shares in Alibaba, cash holdings were pared to around 16.7% of total portfolio.

Shares on the Bursa Malaysia traded mostly sideways. The FBM KLCI ended the week flattish at 1,643.7 on Thursday. Stocks in my Malaysian Portfolio performed better, with total portfolio value gaining 2.8%. I added Prestariang and JHM Consolidation to my portfolio for a combined RM59,830.

JHM is a one-stop electronics manufacturing services (EMS)/original equipment manufacturer (OEM) for fabrication of tooling, design, assembly and testing of LED lighting modules, equipment and industrial machinery. Its key customers are major auto manufacturers and products are destined for NAFTA countries.

The company recently expanded operations to aerospace mechanical parts machining manufacturing, which will be a major growth driver going forward. JHM has a maximum Fundamental score of 3. For more information on the company, check out www.absolutelystocks.com.

Share price for software and services provider, Prestariang has fallen sharply since the general election last year, from around RM1.65, and after the government terminated its RM3.5 billion National Immigration Control System (SKIN) project. Now trading at less than 1.4 times book value of 32 sen per share, I am betting that the stock is ripe for a rebound.

Total portfolio returns now stand at 50.8% since inception. This portfolio continues to outperform the benchmark index, FBM KLCI, which is down 10.2% over the same period, by a long way.


Performance Comparison Since Inception (%)
%-10.250.8-15-10-50510152025303540455055
  • Tong's Value Investing Portfolio
  • FBM KLCI
SHARES HELDQUANTITYAVERAGE COSTCOST OF
INVESTMENT
CURRENT
PRICE
CURRENT
VALUE
GAIN /
(LOSS)
GAIN /
(LOSS)
SCGM BHD11,0661.72919,190.70.92010,180.7(9,010.0)(47.0%)
AJINOMOTO (M) BHD1,50011.81317,720.017.68026,520.08,800.049.7%
Y.S.P.SOUTHEAST ASIA HOLDING10,5002.41325,340.02.59027,195.01,855.07.3%
FORMOSA PROSONIC INDUSTRIES18,0001.44025,920.01.72030,960.05,040.019.4%
POH HUAT RESOURCES HOLDINGS13,0001.47019,110.01.57020,410.01,300.06.8%
SUPERLON HOLDINGS BHD15,0001.28919,327.51.04015,600.0(3,727.5)(19.3%)
CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BERHAD6,0005.14030,840.05.32031,920.01,080.03.5%
Total  157,448.2 162,785.75,337.53.4%
        
Shares bought       
JHM CONSOLIDATION BHD26,0001.15029,900.01.24032,240.02,340.07.8%
PRESTARIANG BERHAD73,0000.41029,930.00.42531,025.01,095.03.7%
        
Total shares held  217,278.2 226,050.78,772.54.0%
        
Shares sold       
No transaction.       
        
Cash Balance    75,623.4  
Realised Profits / (Losses)    92,901.6  
        
Change since last update Jun 6, 2019       
Portfolio      2.8%
FBMKLCI      (0.0%)
        
        
Portfolio Returns Since Inception  200,000.00 301,674.1101,674.150.8%
Portfolio Returns (Annualised)      10.9%
        
Portfolio Beta      1.051
Risk Adjusted Returns Since Inception      48.4%
        
        
Performance ComparisonAt Portfolio StartCurrentChangeRelative Portfolio Outperformance
FBM KLCI1,829.71,643.7(10.2%)61.0%
FBM Emas12,700.411,608.6(8.6%)59.4%
Footnote: 
*Current price is as at June 13, 2019. 
*Portfolio started on Oct 10, 2014 with MYR200,000. 
*This is a personal portfolio for information purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or solicitation or expression of views to influence readers to buy/sell stocks.

STOCKS SOLD IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS (Currency: MYR)
SHARES SOLDDATE BOUGHTDATE SOLDQUANTITYAVERAGE 
COST
COST OF 
INVESTMENT
PRICE SOLDSALES 
PROCEEDS
GAIN /
(LOSS)
GAIN /
(LOSS)
THONG GUAN INDUSTRIES BHD12-Dec-1608-Dec-175,0004.24321,215.04.10020,500.0(715.0)(3.4%)
KERJAYA PROSPEK GROUP BERHAD12-Jan-1715-Mar-1811,0001.02511,280.01.54016,940.05,660.050.2%
KERJAYA PROSPEK GROUP BERHAD - WARRANTS B 2018/202308-Mar-1815-Mar-183,0000.0000.00.330990.0990.0-
LUXCHEM CORPORATION BHD30-Aug-1715-Mar-1816,5000.73212,072.50.72011,880.0(192.5)(1.6%)
WILLOWGLEN MSC BHD14-Dec-1722-Mar-1820,0001.01020,200.01.26025,200.05,000.024.8%
MUAR BAN LEE GROUP BERHAD26-Oct-1722-Mar-1813,5001.24016,740.01.17015,795.0(945.0)(5.6%)
CHOO BEE METAL INDUSTRIES BHD07-Sep-1716-May-188,0002.19017,520.02.44019,520.02,000.011.4%
CHOO BEE METAL INDUSTRIES BHD07-Sep-1721-May-188,0002.19017,520.02.30018,400.0880.05.0%
SUPERLON HOLDINGS BHD01-Dec-1721-May-186,0001.1757,050.01.5509,300.02,250.031.9%
OKA CORPORATION BHD14-Dec-1728-Jun-1812,0001.54118,488.01.27015,240.0(3,248.0)(17.6%)
SUPERLON HOLDINGS BHD01-Dec-1728-Jun-186,0001.1757,050.01.2107,260.0210.03.0%
WILLOWGLEN MSC BHD14-Dec-1728-Jun-181000.50050.00.54054.04.08.0%
PANTECH GROUP HOLDINGS BHD17-May-1802-Aug-1843,0000.58024,940.00.56024,080.0(860.0)(3.4%)
KERJAYA PROSPEK GROUP BERHAD10-Jan-1706-Sep-1811,0001.02011,225.01.40015,400.04,175.037.2%
LUXCHEM CORPORATION BHD25-Aug-1706-Sep-1816,5000.71711,825.00.65510,807.5(1,017.5)(8.6%)
HOCK SENG LEE BHD19-Apr-1806-Sep-1814,5001.52022,033.01.37019,865.0(2,168.0)(9.8%)
GENTING MALAYSIA BERHAD06-Sep-1828-Nov-183,8005.07019,266.03.06011,628.0(7,638.0)(39.6%)
TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD06-Sep-1806-Dec-183,6005.50019,800.06.03021,708.01,908.09.6%
MAH SING GROUP BHD28-Jun-1814-Jan-1919,0001.00519,095.00.93017,670.0(1,425.0)(7.5%)
WILLOWGLEN MSC BHD14-Dec-1714-Feb-1919,9000.5009,900.00.4649,236.0(714.0)(7.2%)
SAM ENGINEERING & EQUIPMENT14-Jan-1914-Mar-193,0007.38022,140.07.90023,700.01,560.07.0%
PANASONIC MANUFACTURING MSIA16-May-1818-Apr-1960026.15717,182.037.87022,722.05,540.032.2%
HONG LEONG INDUSTRIES BHD14-Dec-1718-Apr-192,0009.12618,251.010.64021,280.03,029.016.6%
MALAYAN BANKING BHD16-May-1818-Apr-193,00010.25030,750.09.13027,390.0(3,360.0)(10.9%)
ECO WORLD DEVELOPMENT GROUP BERHAD28-Jun-1818-Apr-1915,2001.23518,772.00.92013,984.0(4,788.0)(25.5%)
DIALOG GROUP BHD06-Sep-1818-Apr-195,7003.45219,676.43.11017,727.0(1,949.4)(9.9%)
HARTALEGA HOLDINGS BHD28-Mar-1818-Apr-1911,0004.61050,710.04.75052,250.01,540.03.0%


A Note to Readers

It is my pleasure to share with you my Value Investing Portfolio. However, I must emphasize that it is by no means a recommendation or a solicitation or expression of views to influence you to buy or sell any stocks. I am just sharing openly on what I am doing with my stock portfolio.

Further, I like to remind all investors that investing is not just about the profits or returns. You will inevitably suffer stock losses too. You need to understand your own investment objective, risk appetite and the amount of loss you can afford to bear. So, while many investors talk only about absolute returns, I am also sharing the computed risk-weighted returns of my portfolio.

Tong Kooi Ong