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Friday, August 31, 2018

速柏玛 未来净利更强劲

2018年8月31日
分析:MIDF投资研究
目标价:3.58令吉

最新进展:

速柏玛(SUPERMX,7106,主板工业产品股)截至6月底末季,净利暴涨84.18%至984万1000令吉;营业额增5.29%至3亿2945万6000令吉。

累积全年,净利涨59.25%至1亿0702万1000令吉。营业额13亿446万令吉,涨幅达15.76%。

行家建议:

速柏玛全年净利表现,仅达我们与同行预估的82%,低于预期。

尽管如此,该公司计划在2019财年首季开始,改造两座现有厂房,旨在扩大产能。同时,也增设两座总产能可达42亿只手套的厂房,分别在明上半年及下半年完工。

上述计划完工后,速柏玛的年度产能将达272亿只手套,对此,我们预计未来的净利表现更加强劲,维持2019财年的财测。

不过,我们认为,手套的供应增多,会使平均售价承压进而压缩赚幅。

目标价从3.31令吉,上调至3.58令吉,这是根据2019财年14倍的预估本益比计算,符合5年历史平均本益比水平,同时也维持“中和”评级。

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Labels: Bursa - SuperMax

读自传透视先人智慧/黄云浩

2018年8月31日


股海判官●黄云浩

上个周末,花了些时间来读完美国沃尔玛创办人——山姆沃尔顿先生写于1992的自传。近来喜欢上读自传,也是因为查理芒格的一句话:“和已逝的伟人做朋友” 给启发的,“如果你一生中总是与那些有远见、卓识的故人交友,那么你将生活得更好,更有教养。”

他认为通过传记,可让我们透视先人的思想智慧,从而提升对自我的了解,进一步让自己可以找到新点子、新方法,或是增加新的思考模式。

另外,我们也可以从自传中学习到他们如何从试炼与苦难中,面对危机的挑战,而认识到机会并做出岀色的决定。

另外,读这本自传也想多了解一个从阿肯色州小镇岀发的沃尔顿,是凭借什么特别因素促使他的沃尔玛可以如此之成功,在零售界写下一篇傲人的篇章。

沃尔顿在第一章就明明白白告诉大家,他是个非常喜欢竞争的人。不只在运动竞赛中,在学生时代就立志要成为学生领袖,因而从大一开始,就给自己设了一个习惯,对不熟的学生会主动打招呼,并会尽量认识。

全利业绩每年增长

这举动让他在大一要结束时,基本上就让校园里的大多数人给认识了。这小故事也说明了他是个不只目标明确,而且会努力将自己目标达成的人物。

在他的零售事业刚起步时,他有个习惯,就是喜欢去考察其他人的店,学习人家如何打理店面。即使生意上轨道了,假期跟家人岀国旅行时,也不改这个全家人都知道的习惯。

这番作为,让读者想起了去年十月间,在旧巴生路的一间商场大约晚上9点半左右,看到全利资源(QL)的一位年轻董事谢立凯先生,巡班全家便利店(Family Mart)。

穿着西装的他,在这商场夜店显得格格不入,然而他的巡班动作却被我看在眼里。都已经是晚上时间,他还用心的巡店,可以看得出他很在乎全家便利店的扩展计划。难得全利资源的第二代高层,也继承了这种毅力,全利资源每一年的盈利与营业额都有增长,可见不是凭空而来。

巴迪尼年年赚钱季季亮眼

对于零售,也不得不提另外一间本地时装业翘楚巴迪尼控股(PADINI),年年赚钱,季季报佳绩。

最新一季的季报,就录得了5700万的盈利,或平均每个月1900万令吉,或每天最少50万令吉的盈利进袋。完全不受外来时时装公司如优衣库(Uniqlo)、 Zara或H&M的影响。

岀席过巴迪尼控股2013年的股东大会,对于当时股东们包括知名基金经理,就存货的金额所提出的担心,对小型审计师所缺乏的信心,董事经理杨先生的淡定应对,这一切不也好比当年的沃尔顿先生被华尔街误读时的情况一样?

不知是巧合与否,巴迪尼控股从2007年就开始用起的“使命宣言”,也和沃尔顿的相似——以顾客的期望为本,以超越顾客的期望为使命。

说回沃尔顿先生,他在书中也不避嫌地说出他这一生常“盗用”很多其他人的点子,而且他总有办法青出于蓝而胜于蓝,将好点子发挥到淋漓尽致。

贯穿他的一生的,是他肯付出并付诸行动,从不墨守成规敢于创新,失手了也勇敢承认,就是要勇往直前就对了。

通往成功的路上,从来没有一套标准。所谓行行出状元,肯下苦功,每个人都必能在自己所选择的领域里,干岀一番事业。

期许马来西亚这块福地,能够继续成就更多肯努力付出的人才。
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Labels: Investment Wisdom

周顯:只要現金流充裕 高負債亦風光萬分

文章日期:2018年8月31日

【明報專訊】話說仰智慧被拉了,要知道,大陸佬有兩三百億元身家,隨時欠人三四百億元,不消說,他在香港當然有很多很多的債主,據知,不外乎最有名的那幾位。

這些債主也不是省油的燈,當然手持抵押品,不過,也是聽說,中國規矩,凡是偷了國家資產的人,一旦遭擒,不管誰人手持抵押資產,都要先還給國家。所以,這些金主的抵押品凍過水,只希望還清國家債務之後,還有渣剩返啦。

那天同人講起,一個人有100億元資產,欠債80億元,可能要破產收場,因為資產並不容易變回現金,如果沒錢供本金或還利息,資產要劈價出售,隨時資不抵債。像我們這些細價股玩家,當遇上熊市時,往往買家全無,一沽之下,黑色午夜,深不見底,一旦有孖展,變成負資產,又何奇之有呢?

有收入畀得起利息 可借完再借

但是,一個人有100億元資產,欠債120億元,可能乜事都無,而且還風光萬分,因為只要他有收入,又付得起利息,可以借完再借,愈借愈多,都沒有問題。

由此可以見得,現金流的重要性。在大陸,現在彈起的房地產大亨,幾乎個個都是靠借錢發達的,個個資不抵債,愈借愈多,愈借愈多,誰知在金融海嘯後,房地產價格膨脹了10倍,咪個個翻身,發晒達囉……然後又再借過,而且借得更多更多,無間地獄。

[周顯 投資二三事]

https://www.mpfinance.com/fin/columnist2.php?col=1463481127012&node=1535655706886&issue=20180831
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Thursday, August 30, 2018

Supermax Corporation - FY18 Results Missed Expectations

Author: kiasutrader | Publish date: Thu, 30 Aug 2018, 09:30 AM

FY18 net profit of RM107m (+59% YoY) missed our/consensus expectations by 11%/16% from full-year net profit forecasts. Separately, a 1-for-1 bonus was proposed. We are cautious on SUPERMX’s production schedule punctuality given past protracted delays. We cut out FY19E/FY20E earnings by 5% each due to the weaker-thanexpected results. Maintain UP. TP is raised from RM2.20 to RM2.60 based on 15x FY19E EPS.

FY18 net profit of RM107m (+59% YoY) missed our/consensus expectations by 11%/16% from full-year net profit forecasts. We believe the variance from our forecast is due to higher-than-expected cost of which we are unable to ascertain as it was not explained in the quarterly results’ note. An interim DPS of 2.0 sen was declared, which brought FY18 DPS to 8.0 sen which is above our expectation.

Key result highlights. QoQ, 4Q18 revenue was flat (+0.7%) due to higher volume sales, but this was more than offset by lower ASPs. There was no guidance in terms of actual volume sales and ASPs growth in their results commentary. However, 4Q18 PBT fell steeper by 48% as PBT margin was crimped by 6.8ppt to 7.1% from 13.9% in 3Q18 which we believe was due to higher-than-expected cost. This brings 4Q18 PATAMI to RM9.8m (-70%) hit by the higher effective tax rate of 51% compared to 25% in 3Q18.

YoY, FY18 PATAMI of RM107m (+59% YoY) was due to stronger revenue (+16%) underpinned by higher output achieved from refurbishment work, higher demand and better operational efficiencies. Profitability improved on efforts taken to improve efficiency and productivity, including the refurbishment of the older lines and streamlining of work processes. As a result, FY8 PBT margin was higher by 3.2ppt to 12.8% from 9.6% in FY17.

Outlook. Following the completion of Plant 10 (2.2b pieces) and Plant 11 (3.4b pieces) in end 2017, the group’s installed capacity rose 30% to 23b pieces from 17.8b which is expected to drive growth in FY19. The group is undertaking a strategy, focusing on rebuilding and replacing of old factories with new high efficiency production lines with speed up to 38-40k (vs 18k per line per hour) pieces of gloves per hour per line. The capacity plans are; (i) decommissioning of old lines in Block G (Kamunting, Taiping) and replacing them with new ones (expected to increase from 1.02b to 1.35b pieces per annum), (ii) convert the unused warehouse in Block F (Kamunting, Taiping) (new capacity of 2b pieces), iii) decommissioning old lines at Sungai Buloh plant from 12 to 20 lines (capacity increasing 97% to 2.4b pieces), and (iv) to build Plant 12 behind the existing factory in Meru Klang, i.e. Plant 10 and Plant 11. Upon full commercial production in stages from 3Q 2018 till end 2H 2019, installed capacity will rise 16% to 27.2b pieces per annum.

Downgrade FY19E/FY20E net profit. We cut out FY19E/FY20E earnings by 5% each due to the weaker-than-expected results.

Reiterate UNDERPERFORM. All in, following our cut in earnings forecast and attaching a higher PER (from 12x to 15x), our TP is raised from RM2.20 to RM2.60 based on 15x FY19E EPS. (at +1.0 SD above its historical forward average). The group is traded at a steep discount of 30% compared to the sector average due to its weak earnings guidance and it trailing behind peers in terms of capacity expansion and innovation.

Key upside risks to our call are faster-than-expected volume sales and lower-than-expected tax rate.

Source: Kenanga Research - 30 Aug 2018
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Labels: Bursa - SuperMax

Serba Dinamik Holdings Berhad - Beating Estimates

Author: PublicInvest   |    Publish date: Thu, 30 Aug 2018, 10:08 AM 


Serba Dinamik (Serba) reported a strong set of 2QFY18 results as both revenue and net profit surged by 24% YoY to RM804.1m and RM102.7m respectively. 1HFY18 numbers are consequently stronger by 21% YoY, with revenue at RM1.5bn and net profit at RM195.4m, the latter above our expectations at 58.1% of our full year forecast but within street estimates. The impressive performance was derived from the operations and maintenance (O&M) segment, with most contribution seen in maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) activities notably in Middle East and Malaysia. We lift our FY18-20 estimates by +23% on average to account for higher progress billings in its O&M segment on the back of its solid RM4.6bn order book. Engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning (EPCC) order book stands at c.RM2.3bn meanwhile. We reckon the Group’s 3QFY18 earnings will be slower but pick back up in 4QFY18 due to seasonal factors. An interim dividend of 2.15sen was declared in line with the higher profit achieved. We reiterate our Outperform rating with a higher TP of RM4.69 (14x PER over EPS19) after the earnings adjustment. Serba is maintained as our top pick for the sector.
  • Higher O&M recognition to mitigate the shortfall in EPCC. 2QFY18 results were largely contributed by Serba’s O&M segment as activities picked-up in the Middle East region. Revenue and EBIT grew by 34.2% and 31.8% YoY respectively. These were more than enough to counter the shortcomings in the EPCC segment which saw revenue fall 27.9% YoY and EBIT by 36.7% YoY. Overall, PBT and net profit margins are stable at 12% - 13% levels.
  • Earnings forecast. We revise our FY18-20 earnings estimates upward by 23% on average after projecting higher progress billings mainly from the countries which contain more oil and gas reserves especially in the Middle East. Our forecasts are now adjusted to RM394.8m, RM492.3m and RM563.3m respectively, translating to an average growth of 22%. Gross and net profit margins are expected to remain stable at 17% and 12% level respectively.
  • Outlook to remain robust. Serba is our top pick for the sector given its core competencies, good delivery track record and resilient performance even during the low oil price environment, strongly supported by its core activities in the O&M and EPCC segments. Earnings outlook remains solid backed by its strong outstanding orderbook in hand of RM6.9bn (O&M: RM4.6bn, EPCC: RM2.3bn), providing earnings visibility for the next 3 years. YTD, the Group has successfully secured a total of RM1.6bn worth of contracts, and is on track to meet its target of RM7.5bn orderbook by end of FY18. We remain optimistic on the Group’s growth prospects underpinned by increased demand for asset maintenance and EPCC works on the back of stable crude oil prices. In addition, the synergies built up from its M&A exercises will further strengthen its fundamentals.
Source: PublicInvest Research - 30 Aug 2018
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Labels: Bursa - OilGas

周顯﹕農村包圍城市 拼多多紅起來

文章日期:2018年8月30日

【明報專訊】近年中國最紅火的電商,就是團購網「拼多多」,它成立了3年多,去年全年收入只有17.4億元人民幣,蝕5.25億元,今年首3個月蝕2.01億元,但估值卻高達150億美元,預算集資10億美元,都可算是誇張到了極點。

據報道,這估值有賴於它的2.95億名用戶,以及高達1987億美元的成交總額(GMV)。當然,這還少不得它的CEO黃崢,以及幕後軍師段永平,都是財技高手,以及騰訊(0700)的入股……科技股的本質,就是財技。

水平愈低地區 生意成功機會愈大

論到拼多多成功的原因,有人認為,是因為它做生意的手法「多元化」,網上有大量「受爭議」的評論……你懂我在說什麼的。不過,單單靠着這些,要在阿里巴巴和京東等電商巨頭的口中分一杯羹,並不足夠。

我的看法是,拼多多的最大單一成功因素,在於正確地採取了「農村包圍城市」的策略。因為各大電商的主要實力,都放在城市,因此在農村造成了真空,這就造就了可乘之機。

這種農村包圍城市的策略,成功例子太多了,共產黨就是最成功的個案,另當年香港全部報紙的總部都是在港島,後來第一份把報館設在九龍的報紙,成功突圍而出,成為大報。蕭若元在中環搞了一間韓國餐廳,生意一般,近來旺角開了分店,大收旺場,馬上說要開更大的分店了……簡單點說,水平愈低的地區,成功機會愈大!

[周顯 投資二三事]

https://www.mpfinance.com/fin/columnist2.php?col=1463481127012&node=1535568299664&issue=20180830
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Labels: 周顯

Wednesday, August 29, 2018

Yong Tai Berhad - Keeping The Faith

Author: PublicInvest   |    Publish date: Wed, 29 Aug 2018, 09:10 AM 


Yong Tai’s FY18 net profit of RM15.5m (+134% YoY) is below our expectations at 73% of full-year numbers and slightly off consensus at 94%. Major cause of the discrepancy is the non-progress in the Terra Square (TS) development which continues to be weighed by funding-related issues. While we continue to believe in the Group’s growth prospects, our FY19 and FY20 estimates are lowered by an average 48% as we take a conservative stand by cutting TS-related contributions in FY19, while also adjusting for margin and billing assumptions on future property launches. The resulting effect is a reduction in our sum-of-parts valuation to RM1.72, which now yields a new target price of RM1.38 (RM2.25 previously) as we also impute a 20% discount to account for current TS-related uncertainties. Our Outperform call is affirmed nevertheless. Separately, the Board has called off plans for the early conversion of its preference shares which should allay concerns on near-term dilutive effects. The share price has weakened significantly in recent times, on valid concerns no doubt, but very much overdone we reckon. Long-term value of the Group’s undertakings remains unchanged amid the weak sentiment possibly exacerbated by China related concerns, but we see the current weakness as an opportune time to further accumulate a stock currently deeply undervalued.
  • Growth in FY18 was driven primarily by on-going progress in its various projects, with The Apple mixed development now at 77% completion, Amber Cove and Dawn both at 12% completion and the KL-based Impression U-Thant development at 11%. FY19 will undoubtedly be stronger given the more advanced stages of these various developments, to be bolstered by maiden contributions from the Encore Melaka theatre.
  • Encore Melaka. As at 5 August, a month after its official opening, a total of 32,413 tickets have been sold, the bulk of which (~57%) coming from walk ins and online purchases. While some way short of a pro-rated monthly target of 83,333 tickets, the lower-than-expected numbers are within expectations as the “high-season” for tourist arrivals are only anticipated sometime late-September/early-October, with ample time and opportunity to catch up on numbers. Recall that the Group had previously announced annual offtake agreements with 6 different agencies, totaling 1m tickets.
  • And while construction on the Terra Square development has been halted temporarily owing to funding-related issues, principally China’s capital controls, management continues to be in talks with various other parties to resolve this expeditiously. We are not overly-concerned over its commercial viability and reckon new buyers are close to being secured, valuation issues notwithstanding, only the timing of a deal completion being in question.
Source: PublicInvest Research - 29 Aug 2018
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Labels: Bursa - Property

Elsoft Research Berhad - 1-for-5 Bonus Issue & 2-for-1 Share Split

Elsoft Research proposed to undertake a 1-for-5 bonus issue and 2-for-1 share split. In summary, the proposals will have a neutral impact on the group’s earnings, but we are positive on them as the enlargement of the group’s share base by 136.4%/144.1% under a minimum/maximum scenario will bode well for the stock’s liquidity and marketability. We maintain our Buy recommendation with an unchanged TP of RM3.75/share (RM1.56/share ex-bonus and ex-split) based on a PE multiple of 25.0x.
Proposed 1-for-5 Bonus Issue and 2-for 1 Share Split
  • Elsoft Research proposed to undertake the following exercises:
(1) 1-for-5 bonus issue; and
(2) 2-for-1 share split.
  • The proposed 1-for-5 bonus issue will be first undertaken on an entitlement date to be determined and this will then be followed by the 2-for-1 share split.
  • Altogether, in a minimum/maximum scenario the exercise is expected to enlarge the group’s share base by 136.4%/144.1% (see Table 1) and correspondingly dilute earnings per share by 57.7%/59.0%.
  • The maximum scenario assumes the exercise of all outstanding ESOS comprising 4,732,500 options which are in the money and will enlarge the group’s share base by 1.7%.
  • In summary, the proposals will have a neutral impact on the group’s earnings. However, we are positive on them as an enlarged share base will bode well for the stock’s liquidity and marketability.

Valuation and Recommendation

  • We maintain our Buy recommendation on Elsoft with an unchanged TP of RM3.75/share (RM1.56/share ex-bonus and ex-split) based on a PE multiple of 25.0x.
  • We continue to like Elsoft for its research and development capabilities, relevant product offerings, rich margins and robust balance sheet.
  • Besides, the group could potentially benefit from the heightening in trade tensions between the USA and China as manufacturers reveal interest in setting up operations in countries like Malaysia.
Source: TA Research - 29 Aug 2018
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Labels: Dividend - ELSOFT

Inari earnings hit by higher income tax on subsidiary


CORPORATE NEWS
Wednesday, 29 Aug 2018

For the full year, Inari’s net profit was up 9.44% to RM249.27mil on the back of a 16.94% increase in revenue to RM1.38bil.

PETALING JAYA: Semiconductor giant Inari Amertron Bhd
image: https://cdn.thestar.com.my/Themes/img/chart.png’s net profit dropped 12.86% to RM57.1mil for the fourth quarter ended June 30.

The lower earnings were due to an increase in effective income tax rates for the group’s largest operating subsidiary, Inari Technology Sdn Bhd.

Thus, earnings per share dropped to 1.8 sen from 2.17 sen in the same quarter of the previous year.

Revenue was also down 12.96% to RM301.16mil due to reduced volume loading.

Inari has declared a fourth interim dividend of 1.6 sen and a special single-tier dividend of 0.4 sen for the period. Thus, total dividends for the quarter are two sen, compared with 2.8 sen in the same quarter of the previous year.

For the full year, Inari’s net profit was up 9.44% to RM249.27mil on the back of a 16.94% increase in revenue to RM1.38bil.

The better profits were mainly attributable to an increase in demand of factory output and changes in product mix as well as a gain on the disposal of assets, despite a higher depreciation cost and taxation.

Total dividends given out for the full year are 8.4 sen compared with 9.8 sen previously.

Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/08/29/inari-earnings-hit-by-higher-income-tax-on-subsidiary/#jAwiJJelG75ApUk8.99
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Labels: Bursa - Semi-Conductor

湯文亮:捉妖者 妖也

文章日期:2018年8月29日

【明報專訊】上星期有老友叫我賣了那隻妖股,我不明白,我手上揸的全部都是大藍籌,不知道哪一隻是妖股,原來老友指的是騰訊(0700),我覺得很奇怪,兩三個月前,騰訊還被公認為股王,差點恒指都要讓位,變成騰指,幾時又變了妖股?

老友話騰訊在450元的時候入了不少,當時大家睇700元,後來騰訊下跌,劉央在405元入貨,仲話同馬化騰微信,她認為騰訊可以去到1000元,馬化騰沒有反對,其實馬化騰是沒有表示任何意見,老友有見及此便立刻加注,誰不知騰訊股價繼續下跌,不但股王的聲譽受損了,而且仲變成不少人眼中的妖股,人情冷暖,從股票市場亦可以了解一二。

累輸錢就是妖股?

老友仲話要發起一個捉妖股運動,把那些妖股捉出來,究竟妖股是怎樣定義的?原來老友話累他輸錢的就是妖股,我話唔需要捉,全香港股票都是妖股。其實,沒有一隻香港股票是妖股,反而是捉妖股者,妖也。

我們少年時大多讀過《聊齋》之類的鬼怪書籍,發覺那些捉妖者在收服妖怪之後,再利用妖怪斂財,最後自己也變成妖怪。其實,真正的妖怪是不能傷害人,只能迷惑人,只要心術正,什麼妖怪也不怕,妖股也是一樣,又沒有人揸住支槍強迫人去買那些所謂妖股,其實是買妖股的人貪心,以為可以在短時間內獲得高利潤,在買入之後不斷唱好,當股價下跌令到他們輸錢時就會話那些是妖股,就算股王騰訊也不例外,那些被捉妖股者說成妖股的股票其實也很無奈,或者那些股票是不值得投資,但主動權始終在買股票的人手上,他們被那些股票迷惑,輸錢只可怪自己定力不夠,與所買入的股票是否「妖」無關,更加不能夠叫那些股票做妖股。

昨日老友問我有沒有買股王騰訊,他收到風,騰訊很快就會去到500元,原來老友對於股王與妖股定義是上升是王,下跌是妖。

紀惠集團行政總裁

[湯文亮 敢說亮話]

https://www.mpfinance.com/fin/columnist2.php?col=1463481149913&node=1535482853070&issue=20180829
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Labels: 湯文亮

Elsoft proposes two-for-one share split, one-for-five bonus issue

Syahirah Syed Jaafar / theedgemarkets.com
August 28, 2018 21:30 pm +08

KUALA LUMPUR (Aug 28): Elsoft Research Bhd, which is involved in the development of test and burn-in systems, has proposed to undertake two-for-one share split and a one-for-five bonus issue at an entitlement date to be determined later.

Elsoft said the bonus issue is to reward the shareholders of the company while the share split is intended to enhance the marketability and trading liquidity of its shares.

In a filing today, the group said it is offering a bonus issue of up to 56.4 million bonus shares on the basis of one bonus share for every five existing shares. The bonus issue shall be capitalised from the share premium account.

The two-for-one share split will entail the subscription of every one existing share into two subdivided shares.

“For the avoidance of doubt, the proposed share split will be implemented upon completion of the proposed bonus issue,” it said.

The proposed bonus Issue is expected to be completed by the fourth quarter of the financial year ending December 31, 2018.

Elsoft’s shares closed up four sen or 1.26% to RM3.21, for a market capitalisation of RM888.84 million.
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Labels: Dividend - ELSOFT

Tuesday, August 28, 2018

2 Ways to Create Discipline - Ricky Yeo

Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Tue, 28 Aug 2018, 09:59 AM
Tuesday, August 28th, 2018

Failure to execute, or knowing what we should do yet fail to do so is one of the biggest challenges for long-term investors. We all have our fair share of regretful experience doing things as a result of short-term temptation. How can we have more self-control? These are the two ways that might work for you.

Environment

Our surrounding has a big influence on the way we think and act. If you can create a focused environment that fosters long-term thinking, how would it look like? This seems hard to answer. Or we can invert the question instead and ask “What kind of environment hinders long-term thinking?” This is relatively easy: Instant access to breaking news, daily share price, market discussion and so on. When you follow the market, thousands of things are constantly clamoring for your attention. You have little time and energy left to pursue the long-term work. In addition, there’s the tendency to trade frequently. One way to change this is to introduce friction. If you have a habit of checking the market through your phone, put it outside your reach. That’s one friction. How about putting it face down and out of your sight? That’s another friction. Delete those stock apps? A huge friction. You get the idea. More frictions disrupt routine and break up habits. If completing a task requires more effort, time, and steps, you’re less likely to do it. Conversely, less friction enforces a habit. If you want to get into the habit of writing down an investment thesis or using a checklist, make them visible right next to you. Who you associate with is just as important. Just as exposing yourself to the daily market price changes behavior, surrounding yourself with people interested in what the market is doing distracts the mind. An easy solution is to have no opinion. When you have no opinion about the market because you are smart enough to know you’re dumb, sooner or later, they will find you boring and stop asking you.

Incentive

Munger called incentive the superpower. That’s why management with skin in the game—‘owner-operators’ with significant ownership in the business and a proper compensation policy are likely to make decisions that benefit their shareholders in the long run. If your incentive is to get excited in the market while having a long-term goal in mind, the goal will fail, not your incentive. How can we create an incentive system that incentivizes us for taking a long-term view? When I was working in the insurance industry, one of my jobs is to get the clients to review their insurance policy with a financial planner. An effective way to do that is to talk about their loved ones. This changes their original incentive to avoid paying more premium to one that makes sure their loved ones are well covered in an unfortunate event. Similarly, before you buy a stock, ask yourself would you still make the same decision if it were your parents’ life savings. You’ll be more interested to avoid losing money than taking an immeasurable risk for a quick gain.

Another way is the 10/10/10 rule. This concept ask “If you buy a stock, how will you feel about your decision in 10 days, 10 months, and 10 years time?” This rule demands you to think about the process of your decision regardless of the outcome. When you’re in the state of euphoria and the FOMO signal triggered by your amygdala is loud and clear, this can be helpful in taming your cocaine brain. This rule isn’t restricted to buy decision but any decision you take in investing as well as in life. You’ll realize most of the things that make sense right now would not pass the 10 years test.

Buffett’s 20 slots punch card is a concept where you can only make 20 investments in your entire lifetime. This long-term thinking approach is the opposite of “you can always sell any time” mentality. Who knew limiting your options can actually be a good thing. If you only have a limited amount of investment options, you’re going to think hard and long before you make a decision. You’ll miss out plenty of opportunities. That’s for sure. But the quality of your decisions and hurdle rate will go through the roof. Those are the two things that determine your long-term return.

Conclusion

These are just several ways you can create more discipline in investing. The big idea is to start thinking what are the ways you can manipulate your environment and incentives so you can leverage them to make it easier to achieve your long-term goals. You can use the 80/20 rule by asking – what is the easiest thing you can get rid of in your environment right now that will instantly improve your discipline in a big way? We want to score easy wins, not big, bold changes that take a long time. That is, reduce the friction of taking action.

http://musingzebra.com/2-ways-to-create-discipline/
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Labels: Discipline

美聯儲模糊衰退信號掩蓋問題

Author: Adi_Investor | Publish date: Tue, 28 Aug 2018, 02:06 PM

2007年8月,美國次級房貸出現危機,市場紛紛下跌時,有一篇文章分析,「引述很多理據,說其實根本沒有問題,只是信心問題,安啦!」

之後市場停止下跌開始反彈,似乎這文章說的是對的。

但進入10月,危機擴大,後來大家都知道了,不用敘述。

只是我忘記了那篇說服我的文章叫什麼名字,不然會收集起來做教材,證明危機爆發前,會出現很多粉飾太平的輿論。

投資者要分辨,就要掌握核心原理,才不會給那些和原理無關的枝枝節節所迷惑誤導。

這裡我舉一個現成例子!

就是【收益率曲线倒挂】。

【收益率曲线倒挂】就是短期利息和長期利息的對比。

例如2年期与10年期債券的收益率,這裡引用對世界經濟股市影響大的美國數據。

正常情況下,短期債券利息會低過長起債券。

所以二者的利息畫成曲線圖,是顯著分開的。

可當二者曲線開始走平,就意味利差在減少,最後會發展成短期債券利息比長期債券利息高,這就是【收益率曲线倒挂】。

因為美國長短期債券的利息差不斷走平收窄。

2年期与10年期美债收益率之差收窄到0.19%,是2007年以来的最低水平,距離負數的【收益率曲线倒挂】越來越近。





歷史上,收益率曲线倒挂通常预示着经济衰退将接踵而至。

還是和過去一樣,當經濟衰退,股市下跌的前兆出現時,粉飾太平的言論就出現了!

有機構斷章取義,說【收益率曲线倒挂】出現後,歷史證明股市還會上漲。

從局部來說這是事實,但他沒有說這是股市崩盤前的最後上漲,故所言目的顯然是粉飾太平。

還有很多專家認為:从历史上来看,收益率曲线倒挂的确预示经济衰退,但不总是有效,有几次发出了假警报。投资者还应注意的是,自1976年、也就是收益率曲线系列数据开始以来,只发生过5次经济衰退,很难根据这些观察结果得出确定的结论。

更重要的是,考虑到央行所采取的前所未有的行动,本轮紧缩周期可能截然不同。由于量化宽松及其他非常规举措,收益率曲线比商业周期现阶段应有的正常水平平坦得多。除此之外,尽管美联储在提高利率,但货币政策依然宽松,金融环境也保持宽松。

有鉴于此,分析师Arkadiusz Sieron认为,虽然收益率曲线可能预示即将到来的经济问题,但这并未得到其他数据的确认,而且也不能说明经济衰退的时间。

現在,連美联储也出報告,質疑【收益率曲线倒挂】是衰退信號,並說【这次不同】。

所有的泡沫崩盤前,都會出現【这次不同】的話,因為人類本性從沒改變。

前美联储主席耶伦在内的一些人认为,期限溢价受到抑制,可能意味着这一次曲线变平并不构成经济衰退的前兆。

其逻辑在于,如果长期利率下降是政府购债计划及其它结构性因素所致,那么即便是温和收紧货币政策,都可能造成曲线倒挂。而过去,美联储要采取紧缩程度很高的货币政策才会使短期收益率高于长期。当前这种大背景的变化,意味着曲线倒挂或许并非经济衰退的有力预测指标。

但是,旧金山联储的顾问Michael Bauer和Thomas Mertens并不认同这一理论。他们扣除掉对期限溢价的估计后,得到一个“仅仅是预期”的长短期国债收益率差。通过分离这两项驱动因素,他们发现无论造成曲线倒挂的原因是低期限溢价,还是较低的短期收益率预期压低了长期收益率,曲线倒挂都释放了很高的衰退风险信号。

他们认为,由于美联储在危机时代采取的债券购买计划,长期收益率下降是“合理的”。但有两个很重要的问题。首先,购买债券对收益率的影响程度并不确定。其次,低期限溢价可能对过去的经济过热也有贡献,所以即便量化宽松是倒挂的原因,结果仍可能是经济衰退风险上升。

“数据中没有明确的证据表明’这次不同以往’,也无法证明预测者应该因为量化宽松产生的宏观金融效应假设,而在一定程度上忽视当前收益率曲线的趋平,”这两位研究人员写道。

根据报告,眼下收益率曲线变平“没有透露出经济衰退即将到来的迹象”。

根据他们的分析,最可靠的衰退预测指标是10年期和3个月期国债收益率差,该利差距倒挂还有接近1个百分点的距离。

Bauer和Mertens还谨慎指出,相关性不是因果关系:因为不清楚曲线倒挂和经济衰退如何产生的联系,所以“解读这个预测性证据时需要慎之又慎。”

聽了這些專家看法,你會否覺得【收益率曲线倒挂】沒什麼大不了?

那你就被誤導了!

請問,你聽懂這些專家的解釋嗎?

很難懂,是嗎?

這就是專家!

專家是把簡單東西複雜化,行家是把複雜東西簡單化。

所謂【收益率曲线倒挂】其實沒什麼複雜,就是市場風險預期和通膨預期來了,投資者會先買短期國債避險,這會造成長短期國債曲線趨平,一直發展到【收益率曲线倒挂】為止。

但是【收益率曲线倒挂】出現並不是馬上出現經濟衰退。這就給人一些人扭曲的空間,也有可能是不了解。

通常,【收益率曲线倒挂】會在負數維持幾個月,然後就上漲變回正數,結束【收益率曲线倒挂】,然後繼續上升。

你不要以為這是問題解決了,其實是市場通膨顯著上升的現象。

當【收益率曲线倒挂】,市場貨幣供應會減少。

而過去濫發的貨幣發酵,通膨率開始上升。

這兩點引發經濟衰退問題。

所以隨著經濟開始低迷,通膨率上升,【收益率曲线倒挂】就會從負數回升到正數,這是經濟衰退將至。

【收益率曲线倒挂】只是一個經濟衰退過程的一個關鍵信號。

經濟衰退,股市下跌不會因為【收益率曲线倒挂】出現而馬上出現,只是反映衰退不遠了的信號。
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Labels: Investment - World

Matrix Concepts Holdings - Sustaining Strong Sales

Author: HLInvest | Publish date: Tue, 28 Aug 2018, 09:35 AM

Matrix’s 1QFY19 core PAT of RM50.2m (+10.1% YoY) was below expectations mainly due to lower-than-expected margin. Declared dividend of 3.5 sen per share. The higher QoQ and YoY results were attributed to higher recognition from the ongoing projects albeit at a lower margin. We expect stronger subsequent quarters with overseas contribution, sustainable strong sales and 1.5x cover of unbilled sales. We lower our FY19/20 earnings forecasts by 16.1%/10.8%, respectively to account for lower margin and higher sales assumptions. Maintain BUY with unchanged RNAV-based TP of RM2.21.

Below expectations. 1QFY19 revenue of RM230.0m translated into core PATAMI of RM50.2m which came in below our expectations, accounting for 17.7% and 20.1% of HLIB and consensus full year forecasts, respectively. The deviation is mainly due to lower-than-expected margin.

Dividend. Declared 1st interim dividend of 3.5 sen per share (1QFY18: 2.6 sen) going ex on 19 Sept 2018, representing an annualized yield of 6.3% at current price.

QoQ. 1QFY19 revenue rose by 35.0% mainly contributed by the higher recognition from the sales of ongoing development in both residential and commercial properties. Nevertheless, core PAT only increased by 14.2% mainly due to overall lower margin of product mix recognized as well as higher SG&A cost.

YoY. Revenue for 1QFY19 grew by 33.1% attributed to higher progress billing from the ongoing projects and better property sales. However, the product mix recognized for the quarter comprised of more affordable products. As such, core PAT only improved by 10.1% given the lower blended margin.

Strong 1Q sales. Matrix clocked in total sales of RM381.6m (+29.3% from 1QFY18) in 1QFY19 (despite GE14 factors) attributable to the growing demand of their township and affordable pricing point. This is on track to meet the full year target of RM1.1bn. Besides, unbilled sales remained healthy at RM1.2bn (4QFY18: RM1.1bn), representing a cover ratio of 1.5x.

Outlook. We expect subsequent quarters to be stronger with the recognition of its Carnegie project in Australia coupled with the strong new sales (+29.3% YoY) and unbilled sales of 1.5x cover. For FY19, there are a total of RM1.6bn worth of projects (FY17: RM1.2bn) are expected to be launched, including the newly launch of Chambers KL.

Forecast. We lower our FY19 and FY20 earnings forecasts by 16.1% and 10.8%, respectively after lowering our margin but marginally offset by higher sales assumptions.

Maintain BUY with unchanged TP of RM2.21 based on unchanged 25% discount to RNAV of RM2.94. We continue to like Matrix as it is well-positioned to ride on affordable housing theme within its successful townships with cheap land cost and sustained property sales. Dividend yield of circa 6% is one of the highest in the sector.

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 28 Aug 2018
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Labels: Bursa - Matrix

大马邮政 高成本架构削弱展望

2018年8月27日
分析:丰隆投行研究

目标价:4.17令吉

最新进展:

大马邮政(POS,4634,主板贸服股)截至6月底首季,净利暴跌86.14%,仅录得497万9000令吉或每股0.64仙。


营业额则小幅下滑3.46%,至5亿9046万3000令吉,归咎于邮政服务和物流业务的收入较低,以及较高的有效税率。

行家建议:

大马邮政首季的核心净利仅420万令吉,占我们和同行全年预估的6.3%和4.1%,大大低于预期。

因此,我们将现财年的净利预估下调40.7%,2020和2021财年也分别下调38%和37.9%,以反映快递、国际和物流业务的激烈价格战冲击。

同时,目标价从3.40令吉,调降至3.03令吉,建议卖出。

除了快递业务面临激烈的市场竞争,我们认为大马邮政的高固定成本架构,以及传统的邮寄服务业没落,将会继续拖累业绩表现。

虽然管理层正努力祭出措施改善营运效率,但可能要等2022年才会真正显现效益。



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Matrix Q1 profit up 10%


PROPERTY
Tuesday, 28 Aug 2018
by intan farhana zainul

“Our flagship development, Bandar Sri Sendayan (BSS) in Negri Sembilan, has seen growing demand from first time homebuyers and young families in the past few years,” Matrix chairman Datuk Mohamad Haslah Mohamad Amin said.

PETALING JAYA: Matrix Concepts Holdings Bhd
image: https://cdn.thestar.com.my/Themes/img/chart.png posted a 10% jump in net profit for the first quarter ended June 30 on the back of strong property sales contributed by its strategy to expand its product mix.

In a filing with Bursa Malaysia yesterday, the property development company said its products focus more on the affordable price properties and fewer higher premium properties compared with the previous year.

Matrix chairman Datuk Mohamad Haslah Mohamad Amin said the group saw the strongest quarterly sales performance of RM381.6mil in the first quarter, with take-up rates of above 80%.

“Our flagship development, Bandar Sri Sendayan (BSS) in Negri Sembilan, has seen growing demand from first time homebuyers and young families in the past few years,” he said.

“This is in line with our philosophy of creating a sustainable township that provides quality lifestyle and community living, and also the prospect of owning a quality landed home in Greater Klang Valley at affordable price points,” he added.

Mohamad Haslan said the company has raised its sales target for its financial year ending March 31, 2019 to RM1.6bil compared to RM1.2il in the previous year.

As at 30 June 2018, the group’s unbilled sales grew to RM1.2bil from RM933.3mil a year ago.

For the first quarter ended June 31, Matrix posted a net profit of RM50.2mil from RM45.55mil a year earlier.

Its revenue for the quarter increased by 33% to RM230.04mil from RM172.86mil last year, attributed to higher revenue recognition mainly from the sales of residential and commercial properties.

The company said its projects under construction worth RM2.3bil in gross domestic value (GDV).

In addition, Matrix said that revenue contribution from its investment properties, including Matrix Global Schools, d Tempat Country Club and d Sora Business Boutique Hotel amounted to RM10.1mil during the quarter, increasing by RM1.8mil or 21.8% higher from RM8.3mil in the previous year.

“This was contributed from higher student enrolments, increased spending by club members and increased occupancy rates of the hotel,” it said.

Mohamad Haslah said the company is now embarking into its next chapter of growth, which it is targeting to launch its first property project in Kuala Lumpur city.

He said the company is building serviced apartments, named the Chambers Kuala Lumpur, with estimated GDV of RM310.6mil.

“We strive to maintain our double-digit growth performance and deliver sustainable shareholder returns.

“We remain committed to rewarding our shareholders with consistent dividends along with our business expansion,” he said.

Since listing in 2013, Matrix said it has continued to distribute 40% of net profit attributable to shareholders. The group declared a first interim single tier dividend of 3.25 sen per share in the first quarter, a payout of RM24.5mil.

Yesterday, shares of Matrix closed unchanged at RM2.10.

Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/08/28/matrix-q1-profit-up-10/#1L1R1fso4Ajp4B5V.99
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Labels: Bursa - Matrix

Monday, August 27, 2018

SKP Resources Berhad - Weak, But Not Bleak

Author: PublicInvest   |    Publish date: Mon, 27 Aug 2018, 09:59 AM 


SKP Resources started off the new financial year on a relatively underwhelming note, with a net profit of RM25.8m (-22.5% YoY, -9.5% QoQ) reported for 1QFY19. While typically a weaker quarter seasonally, we still deem this as missing both our and consensus estimates at 16% and 17% of full-year numbers respectively, largely on account of slight overestimations in growth prospects. The Group saw another sequential drop in revenue (-7.8% QoQ), reflective of a reduction in orders of a particular product line from one of its key customers. While we don’t think this as a particularly worrisome trend as we see improvements in subsequent quarters coming from growth in other product segments, we are conservatively lowering our FY19 to FY21 net profit estimates by an average 17% as we cut growth assumptions. We still like SKP’s growth prospects regardless, but target price is lowered to RM1.45 (RM2.22 previously) in line with our earnings cut. Target multiples are also lowered to 12x (15x previously) CY19 EPS as corresponding forward CAGR is reduced accordingly. Our Outperform call is retained however.
  • 1QFY19 performance. Revenue of RM430.5m (-18.0% YoY, -7.8% QoQ) declined largely due to the reduction in orders of a particular product line from one of its key customers, though somewhat anticipated. This was however exacerbated by weakness in certain other clients’ orders, leading to the growth shortfalls. The Group’s near-term prospects continue to be underpinned by the two key contracts it secured in late- 2015 and mid-2016 worth an estimated RM1.1bn (cumulative) annually, running an average of 4 to 5 years. Net profit margin of 6% is in line with expectations, with fluctuations minimized through a 100% cost pass through arrangement with its key customers.
  • Current developments. The Group’s Printed Circuit Board Assembly (PCBA) business is pending qualification by its major customers, with more significant contributions in the coming financial year as it steps up on bidding for certain contracts. We gather the Group has also started on sub-assemblies of a certain product for a peer as part of the latter’s entire value chain, keeping lines active and capital sufficiently employed despite it being lower margin in nature.
  • A suggested pick in the manufacturing sector for its growth attributes, and strong financial position. Further re-rating catalysts include i) securing of new contracts given its readily-available capacity, ii) venturing into new production and iii) expansion of client base.
Source: PublicInvest Research - 27 Aug 2018
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‘Electronic industry is not slowing down’

CORPORATE NEWS
Monday, 27 Aug 2018
by david tan

GEORGE TOWN: After four years of steady growth, the rather volatile electronic industry is not showing signs of slowing down, Pentamaster Corp Bhd
image: https://cdn.thestar.com.my/Themes/img/chart.png chairman Chuah Choon Bin said.

Since the introduction of mid-range smart phones and Internet-of-Things (IoT) devices and the adoption of electronic functions into the automotive industry, growth has steadied, Chuah said.

“The growth was supported by demand from the new generation cars and the high demand of power electronics devices in the hybrid and electric vehicle (EV) car control system.

“We noticed the trend three years ago and started to develop test equipment for testing automotive sensors,” Chuah said.

The contribution from the automotive industry will be about 15% this year compared to less than 10% in 2017, said Chuah.

“The group delivered about 50 test-equipment with a value of more than RM20mil to the auto industry, which is more than 10% of the RM200mil worth of orders we have received in the first half.

“In the second half, there would be another 70 test-equipment with a value of more than RM30mil that needs to be delivered to the automotive customers,” he said.

According to Chuah, the group is now negotiating with electronic component makers about relocating to Malaysia.

“Penang is one of the top destinations in Asia after Korea, Taiwan, and Japan known for its test-equipment,” he added.

The US-China trade war is also expected to have a positive impact on the industry as Chinese manufacturing companies explore production and shipment from Malaysia to avoid the hefty import duty imposed by the US on China-made products.

PIE Industrial Bhd

image: https://cdn.thestar.com.my/Themes/img/chart.png managing director Alvin Mui said the rising demand from the automotive segment has created a shortage of electronic components since last year.

“The scarcity of electronic components has become more acute this year, impacting the supply to the consumer electronic and industrial electronic segments. We have to source in the open market now, as our distributors are out of supply.

“The price of components has soared a hundred times due to the supply situation,” he added.

According to a Market Research Future report, automotive smart display market is expected to reach US$9.78bil by the end of 2023, growing at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.56%.

“The growing popularity of smart display in the automotive industry to enhance safety technologies and to provide wireless connectivity is driving the demand for semiconductors, integrated circuits and printed circuit board assembly (PCBA) products, popularly also known as electronic motherboards.

“Asia-Pacific, in particular the economies of China and India, is expected to dominate the smart display market for automotive during the forecast period.

“Low manufacturing cost and the high demand for vehicles in the region will also drive up the demand for new vehicles in Asia Pacific,” Mui said.

For this reason, the contribution from the group’s automotive business segment has grown over the past two years.

“We supply electronic motherboards and cables to the automotive industry. We expect the contribution to be even more significant over the next two years,” Mui says.

On the impact of the US and China trade war, Mui said the group is now in talk with a few China-based producers of electronic components who expressed interest to engage PIE to produce for them.

“If they produce and ship from China, their products will face a hefty import duty on entering the US.

“We are, however, selective about producing for them. We will only pick customers with value-added electronic components that could yield a reasonable margin, and which require minimal labour for the production process.

“We hope some of the deals can be sealed in the near future so that they can contribute in 2019,” he added.

Globetronics Technology Bhd
image: https://cdn.thestar.com.my/Themes/img/chart.png chief executive officer Datuk Heng Huck Lee says contrary to slowing down, both electronics and semiconductor industries are anticipating further growth in the coming years.

“Mid-range smart phones and devices, IoT products, the next generation of smart televisions, which are a breakaway from 4K and 8K resolution, and the roll out of 5G infrastructure will drive the growth of the electronic and semiconductor industries.

“Our smart sensors and laser modules to the automotive sector are expected to drive revenue and profitability.

“We are hopeful that the automotive sales contribution will generate 10% to 15% segment of the group’s revenue by 2020 from less than 3% presently,” he added.

According to Heng, the US-China trade issue would benefit Malaysia. Globetronics has received enquiries from potential Chinese manufacturers interested to engage with Malaysian manufacturers to produce for them.

“Any relocation or transfer of manufacturing operations to Malaysia will benefit our local electronic and semiconductor players,” Heng said, adding that Globetronics is now talking to two potential companies.

Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/08/27/electronic-industry-is-not-slowing-down/#31UEM7GgWLiSmsPy.99
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Ex-civil servant says Singapore's SGX is a policeman without a gun

MARKETS
Monday, 27 Aug 2018

SINGAPORE: Francis Tay feels cheated. The former Singapore civil servant says he’s lost almost S$50,000 (U$36,600) in the implosion of Noble Group Ltd, the commodity trading giant. He also says shareholders like him have been let down by regulators whose job it is to protect them from the sort of crisis that’s brought the company to the brink.

Yet, the 71-year-old says he still plans to vote in favour of a debt-for-equity restructuring at a shareholder meeting in Singapore tomorrow that will hand control to senior creditors, diluting existing stockholders. He sees no other option. Chairman Paul Brough paints the deal as do-or-die, and it already has the backing of the biggest investors, including founder Richard Elman.

“I was cheated of my hard-earned savings,” said Tay, who still owns a small amount of shares. “How can a giant company collapse?” he said in an interview earlier this month in the run-up to the shareholder vote, adding: “What message does that send to the world about Singapore’s reputation?”

Hardest hit

Tay and other retail investors have been among the hardest hit, although institutional investors as well as buyers of the company’s bonds when they were issued have also seen steep losses.

Noble Group has shredded billions in value since 2015 as the once US$12bil company was reduced to a rump by untenable debt, losses and allegations it deceived investors with accounting tricks. The Singapore-listed trader, which has always defended the integrity of its accounts, didn’t respond to a request for comment.

As Noble’s troubles mounted, the role of Singapore’s regulators has come under scrutiny. In addition to running the exchange, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX) has front-line oversight and responsibility for maintaining fair, orderly and transparent markets as well as following up with companies to investigate allegations of irregularities. It’s backed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, the de facto central bank of a city state that’s also a global financial centre with a hard-earned reputation for probity.

In the case of Noble Group, allegations have come thick and fast, led by Iceberg Research, which says profits were inflated. The group – whose claims are rejected by Noble – is led by Arnaud Vagner, a former credit analyst at Noble in Hong Kong, where the trader was based before it moved to London, who recently dropped his self-imposed cloak of anonymity.

“The SGX is a policeman without a gun,” said Tay. “Layman investors like us only have access to on-the-surface information, such as company releases or news reports.”

The SGX defended itself by setting out a summary of the actions it’s taken over the past three years as Noble suffered blow after blow. The tally includes frequent contact with the company, queries for more detail on its results and its demand that Noble appoint an independent financial adviser to assess the debt-for-equity plan that Tay and others are about to vote on.

“Questions ought to be asked about whether the SGX board has adequately prioritised investor protection,” said Mak Yuen Teen, an associate professor of accounting who specializes in corporate governance at the National University of Singapore Business School. There are also questions on whether the board has given sufficient resources to SGX RegCo, he says, referring to the arm of the SGX that discharges its regulatory functions.

Second time

After Iceberg’s first report, “we required the issuer to appoint a Singapore auditor to do an independent review, and took a series of actions to ensure the issuer’s auditor addressed the issues of concern in every single year-end audit since FY2015,” an SGX spokesperson said. “Notwithstanding that both the audits and review were clean, we continue to do our part to investigate matters that are within our remit. We are committed to holding issuers and professionals responsible for their actions and opinions. If there is any evidence of wrongdoing, we will refer it to the appropriate authorities.”

The SGX spokesperson added: “In terms of whether our resources are adequate, we are accountable to both the SGX RegCo board and the MAS.”

It’s the second time that a major trading company based in the city state has run into trouble. Olam International Ltd, one of the world’s largest food commodities traders, came under attack from Muddy Waters LLC in 2012. The short-seller raised doubts about its finances, compared it to failed energy trader Enron Corp and it said ran a high-risk of failure. The trader dismissed the claims but after a rout in its shares, Temasek Holdings Pte, the state-owned Singaporean investment fund, eventually took a controlling stake in May 2014.

Noble’s case posed challenges for local regulators as the company is incorporated in Bermuda, according to Mak. That means “many of the core corporate governance requirements relating to director duties and shareholder rights in the Singapore Companies Act would not apply,” he said. As the saga has unfolded, Noble has always parried the claims made by Iceberg and consistently defended its actions.

Thorough investigation

“MAS will thoroughly investigate potential breaches of the law that have been referred to us by SGX, should SGX’s investigations uncover breaches of the law,” an MAS spokesperson said.

“MAS will not hesitate to take appropriate enforcement action if our own investigations uncover any violations of our regulations.”

Other investors have been bruised too. “The hole is too big, they need a strong injection of money,” said S. Nallakaruppan, who works in the finance industry and counts himself as fortunate that he sold most, but not all, of his Noble Group shares in 2016. Like Tay, he plans to vote in favour of the restructuring.

At the special general meeting, shareholders will vote on the plan, which hands 70% of the equity in a revamped company to senior creditors, 10% to management and the rest to existing shareholders, with about half of the debt written off. Brough has said that, should the proposal founder, the company may be forced to enter administration or file for bankruptcy.

Lisa Ng, an administrative manager in the finance sector, says she lost about 90% of her investment in Noble, or at least S$5,000.

She says she won’t attend the SGM because she considers her shares a write-off. Selling them would cost her more in fees than what she’d now recover, she said. — Bloomberg

Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/08/27/noble-shareholder-regulators-let-us-down/#3omlXfOvsqibAHIA.99
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MMS Ventures expects higher sales of automotive test equipment

AUTOMOTIVE
Monday, 27 Aug 2018

GEORGE TOWN: MMS Ventures Bhd  expects the sales of its test equipment to the auto sector to contribute about 15% this year, up from 5% in 2017.
Group managing director TK Sia said sales of automotive test equipment has so far played an important role in offsetting the slower demand from the smart device sector for the group’s test-equipment.

“The sales to the smart device has dropped so this year because our customers are not changing much of the flash lighting features of the smart phones planned for release this year.

“In the automotive sector, however, we can see a lot changes in the exterior and interior LED lighting system of newly release automobiles. Manufacturers are investing into the LED lighting because rear and front lights design are essential in enhancing the aesthetics.

“Sales contribution of testers to the auto sector should increase by a fifth in 2019,” Sia added.

Elsoft Research Bhd  expects its automotive contribution to rise by a third in 2018.

“Since 2014, the sales to the automotive sector contributes between 40% and 50% of group revenue. The sales to the automotive has contracted in the first half of 2018, but we expect it to pick up in the second half, contributing more than a third this year,” group chief executive officer C.E. Tan says.

Elsoft testers are used for testing the daytime running lights and rear lights.

The group expects to end the 2018 financial year with record high shipments of test equipment. This would impact positively revenue and profit.

In the group’s second half order book, more than 30 test equipment are due for delivery before the end of December.

“Based on today’s market price of RM1mil per unit, the test equipment is worth more than RM30mil in the market.

“More orders are coming. We accept orders until October, as the time needed to assemble a test equipment is between 10 and 16 weeks, depending on whether it was a repeat order or for a new equipment.

“In the first half of 2018, the group delivered more than 40 units. Last year, we shipped out about 60 units worth about RM60mil,” Tan said.

He said the group was able to achieve record breaking results for its revenue and profit this year as the volume of test-equipment shipment for 2018 was expected to be a record high.

Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/08/27/mms-ventures-expects-higher-sales-of-automotive-test-equipment/#dOwyzqvFFXaFGGCw.99
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Globetronics eyes 2-digit growth, plans RM60bil expansion

CORPORATE NEWS
Monday, 27 Aug 2018
by david tan



Group chief executive officer Datuk Heng Huck Lee(inset) said the group was confident of achieving its target with a strong double-digit percentage growth for its gross profit.

GEORGETOWN: Globetronics Technology Bhd
image: https://cdn.thestar.com.my/Themes/img/chart.png expects to close the year with a double-digit percentage improvement in its net earnings compared with 2017.

Group chief executive officer Datuk Heng Huck Lee said the group was confident of achieving its target with a strong double-digit percentage growth for its gross profit.

“With our third quarter sales and orders already locked in, we are very confident that the nine months of 2018 will perform much better than the corresponding period last year.

“The expected financial achievement inclusive of the third quarter projections indicate that our net profit will see a double-digit percentage growth over 2017.

“There could be last minute changes or rescheduling, however, we think drastic changes are limited.

“Orders of our smart sensors, laser modules and LED modules, and timing devices to customers in the United States, Japan, and Europe continue to be the main contributors,” Heng said.

For 2019, the group is expected to invest more than RM60mil to expand its bio-sensor business if it is qualified by major customers for mass production.

The group has five new projects for next year, of which three would be designed into smart telecommunication device, while the fourth was a intelligent laser lighting module project to be developed for the automotive sector.

“The fifth project involves the development of environmental and bio-sensors to be used in smart phones, Internet of Things (IoT) wearable and automotive products.

“The initial feedback from these global companies is overwhelming,” he added.

Globetronics’ sensors contribute about 50% of the group’s revenue.

According to an International Data Corp (IDC) on IoT spending, worldwide spending is projected to reach US$772.5bil in 2018.

IDC projected worldwide IoT spending to sustain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.4% through the 2017-2021 forecast period surpassing the US$1 trillion mark in 2020 and reaching US$1.1 trillion in 2021.

“IoT hardware will be the largest technology category in 2018 with US$239bil going largely toward modules and sensors along with some spending on infrastructure and security.

“Services will be the second largest technology category, followed by software and connectivity. Software spending will be led by application software along with analytics software, IoT platforms, and security software.

“Software will also be the fastest growing technology segment with a five-year CAGR of 16.1%.

“Services spending will also grow at a faster rate than overall spending with a CAGR of 15.1% and will nearly equal hardware spending by the end of the forecast,” IDC said.

Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/08/27/globetronics-eyes-doubledigit-growth/#JbEiY6WIftlRuHpT.99
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曾淵滄﹕港股一浪遜一浪 選定績優股

文章日期:2018年8月27日

【明報專訊】過去數個星期,恒指一個星期跌,一個星期升,其間波幅也不小,有能力低買高賣的人也有不錯的收穫,可惜,升跌之間,卻出現一個很明顯的一浪低於一浪的走勢,其中一個很重要的理由是匯控(0005)與騰訊(0700)兩隻恒指重磅股正在不斷地創近期新低。匯控早已公布業績,沒有好消息也沒有壞消息,但是股價卻靜靜地往下跌,使到股息率慢慢地由5厘變成目前的5.74厘,只要再跌多一點,就有6厘股息了,也許到了6厘股息時,會吸引一些想收高息的投資者入場,大家不妨耐心等待。

騰訊股價的下跌則發生在公布業績前,騰訊是高P/E值的,高P/E值需要高增長來支持股價,愈來愈多人沒有信心騰訊可以維持這麼長的高增長期,終於等到業績公布了,股價一舉跌至319元之後才出現大反彈,為恒指一浪低於一浪製造一個良好的理由。

匯控再跌股息吸引 將有資金追捧

恒指一個星期漲一個星期跌的另一個原因是內地A股不斷試新低點,但是往往在上證指數跌破2700點後就出現有力的承托力,把上證指數拉回2700點之上,可惜推上去之後不久,又慢慢地跌下來,跌穿2700點之後,又再一次推上去,如此反彈了3次,也造成3次又升又跌的浪,使到港股也受影響。

過去漫長的年代,影響港股的最大動力是美股。近期美股的表現非常好,標普500指數於8月21日創歷史新高2873點,那一天,美國金融界興高彩烈的慶祝標普500指數平了美國歷史上最長的牛市紀錄;這次牛市由2009年3月9日開始,至2018年8月21日共3452天。

騰訊A股夾擊港股 美股升市幫助不大

之前,美國曾經有過也是長達3452天的牛市,那是1990年至2000年之間的事,只要目前的標指能再向上破了8月21日的高位,那就破了多年前的最長牛市紀錄。今年,特朗普已經多次說美國股市上升是他的功勞,相信他仍會努力推動美國股市再創新高,創出更長的牛市紀錄,他已經把他的功績與股市掛鈎,還公開說目前中國股市下跌、美國股市上升說明了他已經打贏了中美貿易戰。

這也好,儘管港股受美股的影響已逐漸小於受內地A股的影響,只要美股再向上,對港股總是好事。近一段日子,港股一個星期升,一個星期跌,基本步伐也是緊跟美股,分別只是美股是一浪比一浪高,而港股不幸的是一浪比一浪低。

逐漸地,主要上市公司的業績都公布了,我始終相信,好業績長期而言一定能推動股價上升,因此,現在也是坐下來好好選股的時候。

大學教授

[曾淵滄 滄海明珠]

https://www.mpfinance.com/fin/columnist2.php?col=1463481132566&node=1535309002445&issue=20180827
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陸振球﹕美股最長牛巿 中國可如何借鑑?

文章日期:2018年8月27日

【明報專訊】自中美貿易戰爆發以來,大家都在評估對中國經濟會造成多大的負面影響,有說單以涉及的徵稅金額計,可能只會拖低中國GDP增長率不到1個百分點,然而中國的股巿卻已累跌近三成,相反美國的股巿卻屢創新高,締造出歷史最長的大牛巿。

其實,在貿易戰以前,中國的經濟增長率長期拋離美國,但股巿表現卻極其羞家,最重要的原因不單止是經濟增長數字可能有水分,且為了催谷經濟,內地經常以貨幣及財政政策刺激經濟,資金很多時都投進生產效率低或重複建設上。另外,政府的稅收及地方徵費等其實相當沉重,除了受保護的國企外,民營企業要真正賺大錢極其困難,有統計指出,中國的稅收增長其實比經濟增長更快,股巿的表現,最主要反映公司而非國家的賺錢能力,所以有沒有貿易戰都好,中國股巿早已長期跑輸美股,香港現在不少上巿公司其實都有中資背景,以致港股表現也受到拖累。

因此,有評論說應付貿易戰,其實中國並不是要再大力放水或重啟大量基建,最重要是推行稅務改革,改變國進民退方針,減少干預和增加經濟自由度,令到民營企業更能賺錢。雖然美國總統特朗普無端發起貿易戰犯眾怒,但其減稅政策確令美國經濟和股巿生機勃勃,有值得參考之處。

明報投資及地產版資深主編

[陸振球 主編的話]

https://www.mpfinance.com/fin/columnist2.php?col=1463481128791&node=1535308995269&issue=20180827
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周顯﹕創興供股安排 顯示決心供乾

文章日期:2018年8月27日

【明報專訊】近日我喜歡的一隻股票,是創興銀行(1111)。

公司在8月14日公布,配股給廣州地鐵,和2供1供股,供股價是14.26元,以當時的股價有2%的折讓,但現時已跌穿了供股價。

這股票是標準的供乾,因為它的大股東越秀集團本來持有75%,經配股後,則攤薄至67.72%,廣州地鐵則持有9.7%。很明顯,這是為了預期沒有散戶供股,越秀集團在供股後則仍然持有75%,不至於超過最低公眾持股量的限制。

另外一招財技,就是廣州地鐵和越秀集團的大股東明明都是廣州政府,荷包即是兜肚,兜肚即是荷包,可是由於廣州地鐵手頭持有不足10%,可以不被當作一致行動人士,又繞過了收購限制。

從以上的財技可見,這一次,創興銀行是決心要供乾。當然,供乾只是有利條件之一,而非必要條件。很多時,在供乾後,仍向下炒一段時間,尤其是熊市之時,更加如此。

熊市供乾後或會向下炒

我同會員們的說法是:「我認為,創興銀行是一隻賺梗的股票,但現時熊市三期,最壞的情况並未出現(更遑論過去了),如果你再等一年半載,隨時可以等到一隻賺更多的股票。所以,這是機會成本的問題,現階段應該保持現金,Cash is God,不過,如果它真的夠平,跌至13元以下,我就盲目都會去買了。」

其實未講完,明天再續。

[周顯 投資二三事]

https://www.mpfinance.com/fin/columnist2.php?col=1463481127012&node=1535309002226&issue=20180827
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Sunday, August 26, 2018

“Mr. Market” by Warren Buffett

Whenever Charlie and I buy common stocks for Berkshires’s insurance companies (leaving aside arbitrage purchases, discussed in the next essay), we approach the transaction as if we were buying into a private business. We look at the economic prospects of the business, the people in charge of running it, and the price we must pay. We do not have in mind any time or price for sale. Indeed, we are willing to hold a stock indefinitely so long as we expect the business to increase in intrinsic value at a satisfactory rate. When investing, we view ourselves as business analysts, and not even as security analysts.

Our approach makes an active trading market useful since it periodically presents us with mouth-watering opportunities. But by no means is it essential: a prolonged suspension for trading in the securities we hold would not bother us any more that does the lack of daily quotations on World Book or Fechheimer. Eventually, our economic fate will be determined by the economic fate of the business we own, whether our ownership is partial or total.

Ben Graham, my friend and teacher, long ago described the mental attitude toward market fluctuations that I believe to be the most conducive to investment success. He said that you should imagine market quotations as coming from a remarkably accommodating fellow named Mr. Market who is your partner in a private business. Without fail, Mr. Market appears daily and names a price at which he will either buy your interest or sell you his.

Even though the business that the tow of you own may have economic characteristics that are stable, Mr. Market’s quotations will be anything but. For, sad to say, the poor fellow has incurable emotional problems. At times he feels euphoric and we can see only the favorable factors affecting the business. When in that mood, he names a very high buy-sell price because he fears that you will snap up his interest and rob him of imminent gains. At other times he is depressed and can see nothing but trouble ahead for both the business and the world. On these occasions he will name a very low price, since he is terrified that you will unload your interest on him.

Mr. Market has another endearing characteristic: He doesn’t mind being ignored. If his quotation is uninteresting to you today, he will back with a new one tomorrow. Transactions are strictly at your option. Under these conditions, the more manic-depressive his behavior, the better for you. (This means NOW, 2015 — Cokie’s words.)

But, like Cinderella at the ball, you must heed one warning or everything will turn into pumpkins and mice: Mr. Market is there to serve you, not to guide you. It is his pocketbook, not his wisdom,that you will find useful. If he shows up some day in a particularly foolish mood, you are free to either ignore him or to take advantage of him, but it will be disastrous if you fall under his influence. Indeed, if you aren’t certain that you understand and can value your business far better than Mr. Market you don’t belong in the game. As they say in poker, “If you’ve been in the game 30 minutes and you don’t know who the patsy is, you’re the patsy.” (Ahem, don’t be the patsy, contact Alphavest to help negotiate Mr. Market’s moods for you.)

Ben’s Mr. Market allegory may seem out-of-date in today’s investment world, in which most professionals and academicians talk of efficient markets, dynamic hedgings and betas. Their interest in such matters is understandable, since techniques shrouded in mystery clearly have value to the purveyor of investment advice. After all, what witch doctor has ever achieved fame and fortune by simply advising “Take two aspirins”?

The value of market esoterica to the consumer of investment advice is a different story. In my opinion, investment success will not be produced by arcane formulae, computer programs or signals flashed by the price behavior of stocks and markets. Rather an investor will succeed by coupling good business judgment with an ability to insulate his thoughts and behavior from the super-contagious emotions that swirl about the marketplace. In my own efforts to stay insulated, I have found it highly useful to keep Ben’s Mr. Market concept firmly in mind.

Following Ben’s teachings, Charlie and I let our marketable equities tell us by the operating results— not by their daily, or even yearly, price quotations–whether our investments are successful. The market may ignore business success for a while, but eventually will confirm it. As Ben said: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine.” The speed at which business’s success is recognized, furthermore, is not that important as a long as the company’s intrinsic value is increasing at a satisfactory rate. In fact, delayed recognition can be an advantage: It may give us the chance to buy more of a good thing at a bargain price.

Sometimes, of course, the market may judge a business to be more valuable than the underlying facts would indicate it is. In such a case, we will sell our holdings. Sometimes, also, we will sell a security that is fairly valued or even undervalued because we require funds for a still more undervalued investment or one we believe we understand better.

We need to emphasize, however, that we do not sell holdings just because they have appreciated or because we have held them for a long time. (Of Wall Street maxims the most foolish may be “You can’t go broke taking a profit.”) We are quite content holding a security indefinitely, so long as the prospective return on equity capital of the underlying business is satisfactory, management is competent and honest, and the market does not overvalue the business.

However, our insurance companies own three marketable common stocks that we would not sell even though they became far overprices in the market. In effect, we view these investments exactly like our successful controlled businesses — a permanent part of Berkshire rather than merchandise to be disposed of once Mr. Market offers us a sufficiently high price. To that, I will add one qualifier: These stocks are held by our insurance companies and we would, if absolutely necessary, sell portions of our holdings to pay extraordinary insurance losses. We intend, however, to manage our affairs so that sales are never required.

A determination to have and hold, which Charlie and I share, obviously involves a mixture of personal and financial considerations. To some, our stand may seem highly eccentric. (Charlie and I have long followed David Ogilvy’s advice: “Develop your eccentricities awhile you are young. That way, when you get old, people won’t think you’re going ga-ga.”) Certainly, in the transaction-fixated Wall Street of recent years, our posture must seem odd: To many in that arena, both companies and stocks are seen only as raw material for trades.

Our attitude, however, fits our personalities and the way we want to live our lives. Churchill once said, “You shape your houses and then they shape you.” We know the manner in which we wish to be shaped. For that reason, we would rather achieve a return of X while associating with people whom we strongly like and admire than realize 110% of X by exchanging these relationships for uninteresting or unpleasant ones.

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Labels: Investment - Warren Buffett

RGB - High Earning Growth Moving forward!

Author: hanliang88 | Publish date: Sun, 26 Aug 2018, 01:01 AM
A little background introduction:

RGB is a one stop gaming solutions provider for clients in the gaming industry. Based in Malaysia with more than 30 years of experience in gaming industry, they have set their footprint across most of SEA countries in Macau, the Philippines, Singapore, Vietnam and Cambodia. They mainly operate in 2 segments: SSM (Sales & Marketing), which involved in manufacturing and trading of various gaming products, & TSM (Technical, Support & Management), which provides leasing of gaming machines to casinos & slot club operators on a revenue share basis. I’m not going to go through in details here, as few bloggers and article have already covered about this stock previously, you can google it up if you wish to know more.

Now, to save your time of reading, let me get straight to the point: this company RGB, is about to report explosive earning growth in coming quarters. I’m going to tell you why.

On 30th May 2018, Starbiz release an interview with RGB on their coming prospect. Here’s what the Group MD, Datuk Chuah Kim Seah said:



Basically information that we can derive from the above statement:

1) Sales of one machine = RM162m/1200 units = RM135k

2) For first half they had delivered 779 units of machines, total revenue = 779 x RM135k = RM105m



So for 1H18, total sales for their sales & marketing segment is RM105m, If we use this figure to deduct Q1 Sales & Marketing revenue RM15.17m, we will be able to get their Q2 estimated revenue from S&M, which is RM105m-RM15.17m = RM90m. in 2017, their profit margin from this segment is 14%. RM90m X14% = RM12.6m.

How About TSM (Technical support & management) division?

Currently, TSM segment operates in 38 concession venues across Asia with a total of 6,207 machines as at end of 2017. From last year, they have secured another 1,500 machines to supply to various customers and operate under concession business, which will start to contribute to their bottomline in this year. That’s a 24% increase in number of machines compare to the year before. And it doesn’t just stop there. In the recent interview with starbiz, Datuk Chuah indicated that RGB has also locked in another 850 gaming machines for its concession and leasing business this year, and will contribute another RM30-35m in turnover in 2019.

Looks like pretty promising, Isn’t it?

But in order to not to get too excited, let’s assume everything remain the same for now, at least for next quarter.TSM division revenue in Q118 was RM32m. Let’s assume both revenue & profit remain the same, Profit will be RM9.75m.

Total aggregate profit =RM12.6m+RM9.75m = RM22.35m. Minus off unallocated expenses RM3.4m (Plug from Q1), operating profit will be RM18.95m. Assume finance cost of RM230k & tax expenses of RM4.5m, Net profit = RM14.22m or EPS 10.5sen. Well sometimes things are too good to be good, so Let’s apply margin of safety and -20%, it will still equal to RM11.38m, EPS 8.4sen.

If this performance can be sustained for the rest of quarters, their EPS will came out to be 3 sen. Let’s apply a 12x PE and target price = RM0.36.

Datuk Chuah is being quite bullish and super confident on his company as well, he had mentioned few times in interviews and also financial report that RGB Is going to perform better than 2017.



He even told Zi Hui in an interview that the growth rate in 2018 will surpass than that of 2017. 2017 vs 2016, growth rate = 21.8%, If FY2018 able to grow 25%, the net profit will be RM38m, minus off RM6.4m in Q1, they will need to deliver RM31.6m for the balance 3 quarters, that’s an average of RM10.3m net profit per quarter. RM38m also equals to EPS of 2.8sen. Not too far from my estimation earlier.




Other Plus points:
Past financial track record – net profit growing 5 years consecutively. CAGR of 35.47%.
Strong BalanceSheet, Net Cash per share 7.51sen
Expanding their business to fresh markets such as Nepal and South America. Huge potential as there are lots of machines with more than 10 years old and need to be replaced
According to Technavio’s Global Casino Gaming Equipment Market 2017-2021 report, the global casino gaming equipment market is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate of 15.25% over the next four years.

How is their share price doing?



Uptrend but not too aggressive, finding support on the trend line. It’s my biggest investment in my portfolio which took up 50% of my capital and I’m still looking to add position.

Disclaimer: This is not a buy call. Sharing is Caring :)
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Labels: Bursa - Gaming

Saturday, August 25, 2018

"The Most Important Thing" by Billionaire Howard Marks

Author: InvertInvestment | Publish date: Sat, 25 Aug 2018, 05:26 PM



Howard Marks needs little introduction, he is one of the world's most well-known value investors and also the co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management. According to 2017 Forbes, he has a net worth of $1.91 billion.

"When I see memos from Howard Marks in my mail, they're the first thing I open and read."
- Warren Buffett

By that you can see the importance and influence Howard Marks has in the investment community, and I encourage you to read his memos https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos. Enough of introduction, let’s start the discussion of what I've learned from the great book "The Most Important Thing" by Billionaire Howard Marks.

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1. Investing Is Full of Randomness

In this world full of randomness and uncertainties, good decisions fail to work all the time, and bad decision work all the time. You can't tell from an outcome whether a decision was good or bad.

For example, you may have done lots and lots of research for a stock and you were so sure that it will thrive, nonetheless it ended up becoming a disappointment due to unforseen events such as political events, wars and natural disasters which you couldn't have predicted at the time you were making that decision. Does that make your decision less prudent? NO, provided your research was correct and you had a margin of safety. Vice versa, if you made a bad decision and some events bailed you out, that doesn't mean you decision was good.

"Risk means more things can happen that will happen"
- Elroy Dimson, London Business School

Today there are a whole lot of sifus (experts) out there, touting their investment skills of how they’ve made 100% or 200% gains on a single stock. To me, a single stock or a single year or two don't prove anything. They could just took a longshot and got lucky.

Action Item: Before you buy investment lessons or tips, ask "Can you show me your track record"?

2. Macro Forecasts are futile

Howard doesn't believe in macro forecasts like GDP, interest rate, stock markets and so forth. He's not saying forecasters are always wrong. In fact, many are right most of the time. For instance, last year GDP grow 2%, many forecasters then forecast that GDP will grow this year at 2% too. This works most of the time because usually the future looks like the recent past. The problem is these forecasters don't make any money because the GDP of 2% was cooked into the prices of securities long ago. Forecasts that make money are forecasts of radical change. For example last year GDP growth was 2%, you forecasted 6% this year and if you are right, you are going to make a lot of money. But it's very difficult to make deviant forecast correctly, and consistently.

"Most of the time when people forecast right, it's because they predicted extrapolation and nothing changed. Once in a while, something changes radically, and invariably somebody predicted it, but if you look at the person's forecasts over the years, you will notice that person always made radical forecasts and never was right any other time."
- Howard Marks

I could relate this very well, I very much hate all the short term forecast about the KLCI index. When there's dip, you will see all the analysts worry about the negative sentiment and are of the opinion that tomorrow there will be a dive again. But when the market turns positive, you will then see they write in their reports that they foresee winning streak is coming and expect KLCI to close higher. It's not uncommon to see analysts change their opinions a few times in a week. To me, these so-called analyses don't provide much value other than pure extrapolation which a 5 year-old kid can do equally well.

Action Item: Ignore forecasts and spend more time researching individual mispriced stocks


3. Investing Is More of a Loser’s Game


Howards got this idea from "The Loser's Game" by Charles Ellis. The idea is that if we look at amateurs' tennis (or any racket sports), we win not by hitting winners but by avoiding hitting losers, i.e. we want to just outlast the opponent because there's no need to hit the tough shots that are so fast and well-placed as that will just force ourselves into making errors. The same applies in investing.

By the same token, Howards thinks that rather than chasing those once-in-a-while superior returns by taking on more risks, controlling risk is more important. He would rather have reduced risk at a given return than higher return at a given risk. It's because when the markets are rising, risk control is invisible and even penalized by having lower returns, but when the tide goes out (as Warren Buffett observes), we can then tell which swimmers are clothed and which are naked.

He has an interesting anecdote which tells that there was a pension fund which had never been above the 27th percentile or below the 47 percentile of all funds for 14 years, it was solidly placed in the second quartile. But guess how did the pension fund perform for the entire 14 years? The fund was in the 4th percentile! It beats 96% of all funds although it was never been above the 27th percentile! It's truly amazing and counter-intuitive. It shows that we need to be just above the middle on a consistent basis over the long term and we will beat most of the people, there's no need to take extra risks which will burst you out of the game.

Action Item: Don't try to be the hero who takes unnecesary risks to gamble in stock markets. You could get lucky and get some handsome returns say 100%, but at the same time, you are exposed to more risks which means you could easily blow up and lose say 50% of your money. And everyone knows how much we have to break even after losing 50%, right? It's 100%, and it's not easy.

(To be continued...in part 2)

Do comment below what you find interesting/counter-intuitive/useful/profound/wrong about this article. My favourite one is definitely the pension fund anecdote. If you enjoy this article, you can like my Facebook page to see more articles like this. They are coming out weekly. Thank you.

http://fb.me/invertinvestment

25 Aug 2018
- InvertInvestment
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Labels: Howard Marks

Latest memo from Howard Marks: Investing Without People

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos

Over the last twelve months I’ve devoted three memos to discussing macro developments, market outlook, and recommendations for investor behavior.  These are important topics, but usually not the ones that interest me most; I prefer to discuss things that are likely to affect the functioning of markets for years to come.  Since little in the environment has changed from what I described in those three memos, I feel I now have the liberty to turn to some bigger-picture issues.

This memo covers three ways in which securities markets seem to be moving toward reducing the role of people: (a) index investing and other forms of passive investing, (b) quantitative and algorithmic investing, and (c) artificial intelligence and machine learning. 
Before diving in, I want to state loud and clear that I don’t claim to be an expert on these subjects.  I’ve watched the first for decades; I’ve recently learned a little about the second; and I’m trying to catch up regarding the third.  On the other hand, since many of the “experts” in these fields are involved in them, I think they may be biased favorably toward them as potential successors to traditional active investing.  What follow are just my opinions; as always you should make of them what you wish.
 Passive Investing and ETFs
I’ve told this story many times, but I want to repeat it here to lay a foundation for what follows.  I arrived at the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business (not yet the Booth School) just over 50 years ago, in September 1967.  The “Chicago school” of finance and investment theory – largely developed there in the early ’60s – had just begun to be taught.  It was methodically constructed on theoretical underpinnings, as well as on a healthy dose of skepticism regarding what investors had been doing previously. 
One of the major foundational components was the “Efficient Market Hypothesis” and its conclusion that “you can’t beat the market.”  First there was the logical argument: it seemed obvious that collectively all investors have to do average before fees and expenses, and thus below average after.  And then there was the empirical evidence that for decades most mutual funds had performed behind stock indices like the Standard & Poor’s 500.
My professors’ response in the late 1960s was simple, albeit hypothetical and fanciful: why not just buy shares in every company in an index?  Doing so would allow investors to avoid the mistakes most people made, as well as the vast majority of the fees and costs associated with their efforts.  And at least they would be assured of performing in line with the index, not behind it.  As far as I know, no one invested that way at the time and there were no publicly available vehicles for doing so: no “index funds” and no “passive investing.”  I don’t think the terms even existed.  But the logic was clear and convincing, per the following citation from Wikipedia (with apologies to Richard Masson, my conscience regarding sources, for relying on it):

In 1973, Burton Malkiel wrote A Random Walk Down Wall Street, which presented academic findings for the lay public.  It was becoming well known in the lay financial press that most mutual funds were not beating the market indices.  Malkiel wrote:

What we need is a no-load, minimum management-fee mutual fund that simply buys the hundreds of stocks making up the broad stock-market averages and does no trading from security to security in an attempt to catch the winners.  Whenever below-average performance on the part of any mutual fund is noticed, fund spokesmen are quick to point out “You can’t buy the averages.”  It’s time the public could.
 . . . there is no greater service [the New York Stock Exchange] could provide than to sponsor such a fund and run it on a nonprofit basis. . . .  Such a fund is much needed, and if the New York Stock Exchange (which, incidentally has considered such a fund) is unwilling to do it, I hope some other institution will.  (Emphasis added)

The first index fund appeared around that time.  Again according to Wikipedia, the registration statement for the Qualidex Fund, designed to track the Dow Jones Industrial Average, became effective in 1972.  I have no reason to believe it attracted many investors. 

But then Jack Bogle formed the Vanguard Group in 1974, and Vanguard’s First Index Investment Trust went operational on the last day of 1975. 

At the time, it was heavily derided by competitors as being “un-American” and the fund itself was seen as “Bogle’s folly.”  Fidelity Investments Chairman Edward Johnson was quoted as saying that he “[couldn’t] believe that the great mass of investors are going to be satisfied with receiving just average returns.”  Bogle’s fund was later renamed the Vanguard 500 Index Fund, which tracks the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.  It started with comparatively meager assets of $11 million but crossed the $100 billion milestone in November 1999.  (Wikipedia)

The merits of index investing are obvious: vastly reduced management fees, minimal trading and related market impact and expenses, and the avoidance of human error.  Thus index investing is a “can’t lose” strategy: you can’t fail to keep up with the index.  Of course it’s also a “can’t win” strategy, since you also can’t beat the index (the two tend to go together).
Index or passive investing got off to a relatively slow start.  In the early years, I feel it was treated as a bit of an oddity or sideline: perhaps a candidate to take the place of one or two of an institutional investor’s active managers.  As they did with many potential alternatives to traditional stock and bond investing – such as emerging market stocks, private equity, venture capital, high yield bonds, distressed debt, timber and precious metals – some institutions put a smattering of capital into index funds, but rarely enough to meaningfully alter the performance of their overall portfolios.  Few institutions if any made passive investing a substantial part of their portfolios: thus it added a little spice but wasn’t a main dish. 
The empirical evidence of assets continuing to flow to passive management suggests that many active managers are still falling short of the indices.  There have been lots of years in the last dozen in which the shortfall has been pronounced, and I’m not aware of many that were the reverse.  As a result, the trend toward passive investing has steadily gained momentum (e.g., the Vanguard 500 Index Fund now stands at $410 billion).   According to data from Morningstar, roughly similar amounts went into active and passive equity mutual funds from 2005 through 2011, but the flows into passive funds accelerated in 2012, while the inflows to active funds began to decline and, in 2015, turned into outflows.  According to the Los Angeles Times, April 9, 2017:

Conventional U.S. stock mutual funds that invest passively now hold $1.9 trillion in assets, triple what they had in 2007.  Add in the $1.7 trillion in U.S. equity exchange-traded funds, another type of index portfolio, and the total in passive funds accounts for 42% of all U.S. stock fund assets — up dramatically from 24% in 2010 and just 12% in 2000. 

These figures apply mostly to “retail” investments, leaving out institutional portfolios where passive investing also has grown dramatically.  Rather than being an exotic add-on with a few percent of a portfolio’s assets, passive investing is now mainstream among institutions, perhaps often accounting for 20% or so of total assets.   

Given the L.A. Times quote above, I want now to introduce ETFs, or exchange-traded funds.  In the 1990s, money managers came up with a new way to offer participation in the markets, in competition with index mutual funds.  Whereas investors can only invest in or redeem from mutual funds at the close of trading each day, when the daily closing net asset value (or NAV) is calculated, ETFs can be bought or sold like company shares anytime exchanges are open.  The ability to transact much more freely has attracted a lot of attention to ETFs.  And while index ETFs gave this new field its start and still represent the vast bulk of ETFs, there are many other types these days.
In the late 20th century, “index investing” and “passive investing” were synonymous: vehicles designed to passively emulate market indices.  But now there’s a difference.  Today this is called index investing.  Passive investing has grown to include not just index funds and index ETFs, but also “smart-beta” ETFs that invest according to portfolio construction rules.  Think of them as actively designed, rules-based vehicles.  Once the rules are set, they’re followed without discretion. As I wrote a year ago:

[To grow their businesses], ETF sponsors have been turning to “smarter,” not-exactly-passive vehicles.  Thus ETFs have been organized to meet (or create) demand for funds in specialized areas such as various stock categories (value or growth), stock characteristics (low volatility or high quality), types of companies, or geographies.  There are ETFs for people who want growth, value, high quality, low volatility and momentum.  Going to the extreme, investors can now choose from funds that invest passively in companies that have gender-diverse senior management, practice “biblically responsible investing,” or focus on medical marijuana, solutions to obesity, serving millennials, and whiskey and spirits. 

But what does “passive” mean when a vehicle’s focus is defined so narrowly?  Each deviation from the broad indices introduces definitional issues and non-passive, discretionary decisions.  Passive funds that emphasize stocks reflecting specific factors are called “smart-beta funds,” but who can say the people setting their selection rules are any smarter than the active managers who are so disrespected these days?  Steven Bregman of Horizon Kinetics calls this “semantic investing,” meaning stocks are chosen on the basis of labels, not quantitative analysis.  [For example, he points out that because it’s so big and liquid, Exxon Mobil is included in both growth and value ETFs.]  There are no absolute standards for which stocks represent many of the characteristics listed above.  (“There They Go Again . . . Again” July 2017)

According to Wikipedia, “as of January 2014, there were over 1,500 ETFs traded in the U.S. . . .”  That compares with 3,599 stocks in the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index (per Barron’s).  To me, the number and variety of ETFs serves as a reminder of the financial industry’s customary eagerness to accommodate people’s desire in good times to “get action” in the markets.  And how else should we view the levered ETFs that have been designed to appreciate or depreciate by a multiple of what an index does? 

That’s the background.  Now I’m going to turn to the implications of passive investing and its increasing popularity.  The first question is, “Is passive investing wise?”

In passive investing, no one at the fund is studying companies, assessing their potential, or thinking about what stock price is justified.  And no one’s making active decisions as to whether particular stocks should be included in a portfolio and, if so, how they should be weighted.  They’re just emulating the index.

Is it a good idea to invest with absolutely no regard for company fundamentals, security prices or portfolio weightings?  Certainly not.  But passive investing dispenses with this concern by counting on active investors to perform those functions.  The key lies in remembering why it is that the Efficient Market Hypothesis says active management can’t work, and thus why it expects everyone (good or bad luck aside) to just end up with a return that’s fair for the risk borne . . . no more and no less.  I touched on this in “There They Go Again . . . Again,” which will be the source for the next three citations:
. . . the wisdom of passive investing stems from the belief that the efforts of active investors cause assets to be fairly priced – that’s why there are no bargains to find. 
And where do the weightings of the stocks in indices come from?  From the prices assigned to stocks by active investors.  In short, in the world view that gave rise to index and passive investing, active investors do the heavy lifting of security analysis and pricing, and passive investors freeload by holding portfolios determined entirely by the active investors’ decisions.  There’s no such thing as a capitalization weighting to emulate in the absence of active investors’ efforts.
The irony is that it’s active investors – so derided by the passive investing crowd – who set the prices that index investors pay for stocks and bonds, and thus who establish the market capitalizations that determine the index weightings of securities that index funds emulate.  If active investors are so devoid of insight, does it really make sense for passive investors to follow their dictates? 

And what happens if active investors quit doing that job?  Thus the second question is, “What are the implications of passive investing for active investing?”  If widespread active investing makes it impossible for active investing to succeed (by making markets too efficient and security prices too fair, per the Efficient Market Hypothesis), will the increasing prevalence of passive investing make active investing once again potentially profitable?

. . . what happens when the majority of equity investment comes to be managed passively?  Then prices will be freer to diverge from “fair,” and bargains (and over-pricings) should become more commonplace.  This won’t assure success for active managers, but certainly it will satisfy a necessary condition for their efforts to be effective.

How much of the investing that takes place has to be passive for price discovery to be insufficient to keep prices aligned with fair values?  No one knows the answer to that.  Right now about 40% of all equity mutual fund capital is invested passively, and the figure may be moving in that direction among institutions.  That’s probably not enough; most money is still managed actively, meaning a lot of price discovery is still taking place.  Certainly 100% passive investing would suffice: can you picture a world in which nobody’s studying companies or assessing their stocks’ fair value?  I’d gladly be the only investor working in that world.  But where between 40% and 100% will prices begin to diverge enough from intrinsic values for active investing to be worthwhile?  That’s the question.  I don’t know, but we may find out . . . to the benefit of active investing.

The third key question is: “Does passive and index investing distort stock prices?”  This is an interesting question, answerable on several levels.

The first level concerns the relative prices of the stocks in a capitalization-weighted index.  People often ask whether inflows of capital into index funds cause the prices of the heaviest-weighted stocks in the index to rise relative to the rest.  I think the answer is “no.”  Suppose the market capitalizations of the stocks in a given index total $1 trillion.  Suppose further that the capitalization of one popular stock in the index – perhaps one of the FAANGs – is $80 billion (8% of the total) and that of a smaller, less-adored one is $10 billion (1%).  That means for every $100,000 in an index fund, $8,000 is in the former stock and $1,000 is in the latter.  It further means that for every additional $100 that’s invested in the index, $8 will go into the former and $1 into the latter.  Thus the buying in the two stocks occasioned by inflows shouldn’t alter their relative pricing, since it represents the same percentage of their respective capitalizations. 

But that’s not the end of the story.  The second level of analysis concerns stocks that are part of the indices versus those that aren’t.  Clearly with passive investing on the rise, more capital will flow into index constituents than into other stocks, and capital may flow out of the stocks that aren’t in indices in order to flow into those that are.  It seems obvious that this can cause the stocks in the indices to appreciate relative to non-index stocks for reasons other than fundamental ones.

The third level concerns stocks in smart-beta funds.  The more a stock is held in non-index passive vehicles receiving inflows (ceteris paribus, or everything else being equal), the more likely it is to appreciate relative to one that’s not.  And stocks like Amazon that are held in a large number of smart-beta funds of a variety of types are likely to appreciate relative to stocks that are held in none or just a few. 

What all the above means is that for a stock to be added to index or smart-beta funds is an artificial form of increased popularity, and it’s relative popularity that determines the relative prices of stocks in the short run.

The large positions occupied by the top recent performers – with their swollen market caps – mean that as ETFs attract capital, they have to buy large amounts of these stocks, further fueling their rise.  Thus, in the current up-cycle, over-weighted, liquid, large-cap stocks have benefitted from forced buying on the part of passive vehicles, which don’t have the option to refrain from buying a stock just because its overpriced. 

Like the tech stocks in 2000, this seeming perpetual-motion machine is unlikely to work forever.  If funds ever flow out of equities and thus ETFs, what has been disproportionately bought will have to be disproportionately sold.  It’s not clear where index funds and ETFs will find buyers for their over-weighted, highly appreciated holdings if they have to sell in a crunch.  In this way, appreciation that was driven by passive buying is likely to eventually turn out to be rotational, not perpetual.

The vast growth of ETFs and their popularity has coincided with the market rally that began roughly nine years ago.  Thus we haven’t had a meaningful chance to see how they function on the downside.  Might the inclusion and overweighting in ETFs of market darlings – a source of demand that may have driven up their prices – be a source of stronger-than-average selling pressure on the darlings during a retreat?  Might it push down their prices more and cause investors to turn increasingly against them and against the ETFs that hold them?  We won’t know until it happens, but it’s not hard to imagine the popularity that fueled the growth of ETFs in good times working to their disadvantage in bad times.

Question number four: “Can the process of investing in indices be improved relative to simply buying the stocks in proportion to their market capitalizations, as the indices are constituted?”  For many years my California-based friend Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates has argued for passive investing on the basis of fundamentally based indices as opposed to market-weighted indices.  Rob is one of the real thinkers in our field, and I won’t try to recount his entire argument or do it justice. 

Suffice it to say, however, that a given company with a given amount of earnings will have a greater market capitalization the higher its price/earnings ratio is . . . that is, the more it’s loved.  Thus, everything else being equal (there’s that ceteris paribus again), the heavier-weighted stocks in an index are likely to be the more highly priced ones.  Do you want to put more of your index-investing money into the more expensive stocks or the ones that are cheaper?  I’d rather do the latter.  Thus it makes sense to invest in the index stocks in proportion to something like their earnings, not their market caps.

Question number five: “Is there anything innately wrong with ETFs and their popularity?”  ETFs are just another vehicle for buying stocks and bonds.  They’re neither good nor bad per se.  But there is a way in which I worry about ETFs’ impact, and it has to do with the expectations of the people who invest in them.

My thinking goes back to the reason ETFs gained popularity in the first place: the ability to buy or sell them anytime the market is open.  I’d bet a lot of the people who make use of ETFs do so for the simple reason that they think they’re “more liquid.”  There are a couple of problems with this. 

First, as I wrote in “Liquidity” (March 2015), the fact that something is able to be sold legally, or the fact that there’s a market for it, can be very different from the fact that it can always be sold at a price that’s intrinsically fair or close to the last price at which it sold.  If bad news or a downturn in investor psychology causes the market to drop, invariably there’ll be a price at which an ETF holder can sell, but it may not be a “good execution.”  The price received may represent a discount from the value of the underlying assets, or it may be less than it would have been if the market were functioning on an even keel.

If you withdraw from a mutual fund, you’ll get the price at which the underlying stocks or bonds closed that day, the net asset value or NAV.  But the price you get when you sell an ETF – like any security on an exchange – will only be what a buyer is willing to pay for it, and I suspect that in chaos, that price could be less than the NAV of the underlying securities.  Mechanisms are in place that their designers say should prevent the ETF price from materially diverging from the underlying NAV.  But we won’t know if “should” is the same as “will” until the mechanisms are tested in a serious market break.

Some people may have invested in ETFs in the mistaken belief that they’re inherently more liquid than their underlying assets.  For example, high yield bond ETFs have been very popular, probably because it’s far easier to buy an ETF than to assemble a portfolio of individual bonds.  But what’s the probability that in a crisis, a high yield bond ETF will prove more liquid than the underlying bonds (which themselves are likely to become quite illiquid)?  The weakness lies in the assumption that a vehicle can provide more liquidity than is provided by its underlying assets.  There’s nothing wrong with the fact that ETFs may prove illiquid.  The problem will arise if the people who invested in them did so with the expectation of liquidity that isn’t there when they need it.

In March I noticed a Bloomberg story about the $900 million BTS Tactical Fixed Income Fund managed by Matt Pasts, which on February 9 went from “almost entirely in junk bonds” to fully in cash:

[BTS] employs no credit analysts to study the fundamentals of bonds.  Pasts is a market timer, trying to suss out whether the whole high-yield asset class is going to rise or fall in value.  He watches trend and momentum measures, such as the moving average of the price of exchange-traded funds that track the junk bond market.  When not in junk, BTS is either in Treasuries or cash.

Trading completely in and out of the market is simple for BTS because the fund doesn’t directly hold the bonds.  Instead, it has the unusual strategy for a fund of investing almost entirely via ETFs.  In late January, before it sold, BTS had about 95% of its assets in the two largest junk-bonds ETFs.

Leaving aside the question of whether a manager can add value by predicting the short-run direction of a market – about which I would be highly skeptical – I think one of these days, this investor may want to execute a trade that wouldn’t be doable in the “real” high yield bond market, and he’ll find that it can’t be done via ETFs either.  In short, building a strategy around the assumption that ETFs can always be counted on to quickly get you into or out of an illiquid market at a fair price seems unrealistic to me.  The truth on this will become clear when the tide goes out.

*            *            *

Passive/index investing got its start because of a view that the stock market would grind on as it always had, with active investors setting “proper” prices for securities.  That would enable passive investors to participate in the markets – assembling portfolios that mimic the indices and “free-riding” on the work and price discovery performed by active investors – without picking up their share of the analytical tab. 

But that misses the reality behind George Soros’s Theory of Reflexivity: that the actions of market participants change the market.  Nothing in a market always continues, independent and unchanged.  A market is nothing more than the people in it and the decisions they make, and the behavior of those people shapes the market.  When people invest more in certain stocks than others, the prices of those stocks rise in relative terms.  And when everyone decides to refrain from performing the functions of analysis, price discovery and capital allocation, the appropriateness of market prices can go out the window (as a result of passive investing, just as it does in a mindless boom or bust).  The bottom line is that the wisdom of investing passively depends, ironically, on some people investing actively.  When active investing is dismissed totally and all active efforts cease, passive investing will become imprudent and opportunities for superior returns from active investing will reemerge.  At least that’s the way I see it.

Quantitative Investing


My next topic – which, as I said, I’m just learning about (and thus I write with some trepidation) – goes by names such as quantitative, algorithmic and systematic investing.  In this memo I’ll use the first of those.  As I understand it, quantitative investing consists of establishing a set of rules (perhaps with help from a computer) and having a computer carry them out.

There are at least two principal forms of quantitative investing.  The first might be called “systematic factor investing.”  The process goes like this:

  • The manager conducts an examination of a period in history, which shows that superior returns were associated with certain “factors.”  Factors are attributes that characterize securities, such as value, quality, size and momentum.  Perhaps in a given period the stocks that did best were characterized by strong value, high quality, large capitalizations and recent appreciation (or “momentum”).  Thus the manager concludes that his portfolio should consist of stocks that rank high in those factors.(Of course those factors don’t always lead to above average returns; if things change, growth, low quality, smallness and recent under-performance might be associated with superior returns instead.)
  • The manager instructs its computer to search for securities that offer the most of those factors for the money.  Thus, for example, the computer might search for value based on measures including price/earnings ratio, enterprise value/EBITDA ratio, price/book ratio and price/free cash flow ratio, as well as industry-specific metrics such as the ratio of price to reserves for oil companies.
  • Then the manager tells the computer in what proportion to weight the search criteria, and the computer proceeds systematically to populate the portfolio with securities that deliver the optimal mix of the factors.
  • Finally, the computer is instructed to assess the attendant risk.  The portfolio is optimized, constraining even the most attractive components in order to limit the representation of individual stocks and perhaps industries, as well as the risk introduced by likely correlations among the stocks.  The portfolio is formulaically derived according to the rules, usually without human intervention.

The end product of this process is a portfolio that, according to the algorithm, will deliver the highest expected return with the least risk (under the assumption that the factors associated with superior returns in the past will continue to be so associated in the future, and that assets will be volatile and correlated as in the past). 

The other main form of quantitative investing is “statistical arbitrage” or “stat arb.”  For an example of stat arb, let’s assume an investor wants to buy 100,000 shares of XYZ, and the market for that stock is “one cent wide” at $20.00/20.01 (perhaps 5,000 shares are bid for at $20.00 and 8,000 shares are offered at $20.01).  The broker takes the 8,000 shares offered at $20.01.  The next offering is 6,000 shares at $20.02, and the broker takes those.  Then a seller offers 5,000 shares at $20.03, and the broker takes those as well.  This buying may move the market to $20.03/20.04. 

A quant’s computer takes note of the fact that the market has moved up and stock has been bought at progressively higher prices. 

  • If other stocks haven’t moved in similar fashion, the computer concludes that these events are “idiosyncratic” – related to that one stock – rather than “systematic,” or present throughout the market.
  • If that stock’s price has moved up idiosyncratically and there’s no news from the company to explain it, the computer concludes the price move took place because of investor buying, not fundamental developments.
  • The computer considers the price move a short-term dislocation that resulted from the broker’s efforts to fill the investor’s order.
  • It also decides on the basis of the trading to date, the current market, and the status of the order book that buying for that purpose is likely to continue to take place at prices above where the stock would be in the absence of that buying.
  • Thus the computer decides the quant should “short” stock (sell stock the quant doesn’t own) to the buyer who’s elevating its price, on the assumption that the quant will be able to cover later, when the buying has stopped and the price has receded.It might be possible to sell stock today at $20.03 or $20.04 that can be bought back at $20.00 or 20.01 in a few days.
  • Thus the quant provides liquidity that otherwise wouldn’t exist and is willing to carry positions overnight.In exchange the quant gets a couple pennies more for the stock he supplies than he’ll have to pay to buy it back.

We might say that for the most part, the stat arb computer responds to disequilibria between the price of one stock and the prices of other stocks or the market as a whole, and it acts on the assumption that the relationships will revert to normal.  The pennies made aren’t a big deal (perhaps a 0.1% profit in the above example), and as Renaissance Technologies said in a statement to a Senate subcommittee in 2014 concerning its core Medallion fund, “The model developed by Renaissance . . . makes predictions that are profitable only slightly more often than not.”  But if you do it often enough and on enough leverage, stat arb can produce meaningful returns on equity.

This is like what Long-Term Capital Management did in the late 1990s, looking for statistical divergences that could be arbitraged.  One of its executives described what it did as going around the world picking up nickels and dimes.  But in 1998, LTCM’s enormously levered portfolio encountered an improbably long period in which, rather than converging, the relationships diverged further.  Mark-to-market losses caused Long-Term’s lenders to require the posting of additional capital; unable to do so, the fund melted down; and securities industry leaders had to take on its portfolios.  It turned out that LTCM had been picking up nickels and dimes in front of a steamroller, and the steamroller caught up with it.

Among the lessons learned in the LTCM experience were that (a) the opportunities for stat arb are limited in size, (b) the capital directed at it must likewise be limited, (c) the leverage employed must be reasonable in order for the investor to survive those periods when historic relationships and probabilities fail to hold, and (d) likewise, it’s important to appropriately hedge out the market’s overall directional risk. 

*            *            *

Quantitative investors program their computers to emulate behavior that was profitable in the past or that is expected to be profitable in the future.  In other words, they set rules or formulas for their computers to live by.  The key question is whether, in a competitive, dynamic and interconnected arena like investing, the route to profitability can be captured in a formula, and whether changes in the investment environment (perhaps caused by the very implementation of the formula) won’t negate the formula’s effectiveness.

Just the other day, I got an email from Rosalie J. Wolf, a former CIO and consultant to some of our clients’ boards, asking which memo contained a quote she likes to use.  It turned out to be from “Dare to be Great” (September 2006), and ironically it’s extremely relevant to the question raised above:

How can we achieve superior investment results?  The answer is simple: not only am I unaware of any formula that alone will lead to above average investment performance, but I’m convinced such a formula cannot exist.  According to one of my favorite sources of inspiration, the late John Kenneth Galbraith:

There is nothing reliable to be learned about making money.  If there were, study would be intense and everyone with a positive IQ would be rich.

Of course there can’t be a roadmap to investment success.  First, the collective actions of those following the map would alter the landscape, rendering it ineffective.  And second, everyone following it would achieve the same results, and people would still look longingly at the top quartile . . . the route to which would have to be found through other means. 

Before going further, let me elaborate on my skepticism regarding the potential for a formula that alone will lead to above average investment performance. 

First, while there are ways to invest that I think can’t work, there also are exceptional people who succeed at them.  I include here active trading, macro investing and quantitative investing.  As for the last, Renaissance Technologies and Two Sigma enjoy excellent reputations for their performance.  My mother used to say, “It’s the exception that proves the rule.”  She meant, for example, the fact that only a tiny number of people can do something proves that most people can’t.  So while I wouldn’t say my skepticism is always justified, I do think it’s generally appropriate.  By definition it doesn’t make sense to think large numbers of people can arrive at formulas that produce exceptional performance.

Second, the key word is “alone.”  Any old formula cannot unlock the secret of investment success.  An exceptional formula, arrived at on the basis of exceptional intelligence and insight, conceivably can do the job, although maybe just for a limited time. 

It seems obvious that a formula’s application and popularization eventually will bring an end to its effectiveness.  Let’s say (in an incredibly simplified example) your study of the market shows that small-company stocks have beaten the market over a given period, so you overweight them.

  • Since “beating the market,” “out-appreciating” and “out-performing” often are just the flip side of “becoming relatively expensive,” I doubt any group of stocks can outperform for long without becoming fully- or over-priced, and thus primed for underperformance.
  • And it seems equally clear that eventually others will detect the same “small-cap effect” and pile into it.In that case, small-cap investing will become widespread and – by definition – no longer a source of superiority.

To reiterate, George Soros’s Theory of Reflexivity says the behavior of market participants alters the market.  Thus no formula will be a winner forever.  For me, that means the achievement of superior returns through quantitative investing requires the ability to constantly and correctly update the formula.  Since investing is dynamic, the rules relied on in quantitative investing have to be dynamic. 

According to Raj Mahajan of Goldman Sachs, my principal tutor on these matters, “The best models today will change exposures as the environment changes and as the dynamics of the factors change (e.g., as they become cheaper or more expensive).  The rules have become increasingly complex, and they are able to ‘learn’ (that is, they are ‘conditional’ or ‘contextual’) in that they understand more of the environment.”  Constant renewal – not “a formula alone” – seems to be a minimum requirement for any quants’ long-term success.  

*            *            *

It seems to me that while the members of both fraternities might reject the comparison, quantitative investing has some things in common with smart-beta ETF investing:

  • Both are rules-based, pursuing the attributes the managers want in their holdings.
  • In both, once the rules are set, the humans (largely) take their hands off the wheel and leave implementation up to computers.

The main differences I see – and they are very substantial – are that:

  • There’s much more trading in quantitative investing.Since index funds and ETFs are “passive” and thus indifferent to company fundamentals and the attractiveness of security prices, they largely buy and hold.  On the other hand, quantitative investors’ computers constantly recheck their portfolios against the algorithms or rules.
  • The quantitative process is much more . . . quantitative.  As Steven Bregman said, smart-beta ETFs buy based on “semantics”: on how securities are labeled (without any quantitative standards for membership in groups).  Quantitative investors, on the other hand, do so based on quantitative assessment of securities’ fundamentals and price.

In closing on the subject of quantitative investing, I want to mention a few issues related to timeframe (some of them suggested by my son Andrew). 

  • Most quantitative investing is a matter of taking advantage of standard patterns (the factors that have been correlated with outperformance) and normal relationships (like the usual ratio of one stock’s price to another’s or to the market).
  • Quants invest on the basis of historic data regarding these things.  But what will happen if patterns and relationships are different in the future from those of the past?
  • Is it important that most quantitative investors have operated only in periods when interest rates were declining, inflation was low and volatility was low, and when the trends in these regards were fairly stable?  Will their approaches prove dynamic enough to adjust if rates, inflation and volatility rise or become more variable?  And if they do rise or become more variable, what historic data will quants use in their rule-making?
  • Likewise, is it significant that there’s limited history of investment performance in periods influenced by quants?  In other words, will increased quantitative investing influence the effectiveness of quantitative investing, and thus alter the requirements for success?

We’ll see, but certainly it can’t be said that most quantitative investors are proven in these regards.

Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning


Since I’m now well beyond the limits of my technological expertise, I’m going to rely on Wikipedia again to introduce a discussion of these next topics:

Artificial intelligence is intelligence demonstrated by machines, in contrast to the natural intelligence displayed by humans and other animals.  In computer science AI research is defined as the study of “intelligent agents": any device that perceives its environment and takes actions that maximize its chance of successfully achieving its goals.  Colloquially, the term “artificial intelligence” is applied when a machine mimics “cognitive” functions that humans associate with other human minds, such as “learning” and “problem solving.”

. . . Capabilities generally classified as AI as of 2017 include successfully understanding human speech, competing at the highest level in strategic game systems (such as chess and Go), autonomous cars, intelligent routing in content delivery network and military simulations.

. . . The traditional problems (or goals) of AI research include reasoning, knowledge representation, planning, learning, natural language processing, perception and the ability to move and manipulate objects.

In other words, artificial intelligence means the ability of machines to think.  Quantitative investing consists of giving computers instructions to follow.  But a computer with artificial intelligence can figure out what to do for itself.  As Investor’s Business Daily put it on May 10, “AI uses computer algorithms to replicate the human ability to learn and make predictions.”      

Bernard Marr goes on in Forbes (December 6, 2016) to make the distinction between artificial intelligence and machine learning:

In short, the best answer is that Artificial Intelligence is the broader concept of machines being able to carry out tasks in a way that we would consider “smart.”

And Machine Learning is a current application of AI based around the idea that we should really just be able to give machines access to data and let them learn for themselves. . . .

Two important breakthroughs led to the emergence of Machine Learning as the vehicle which is driving AI development forward with the speed it currently has.

One of these was the realization – credited to Arthur Samuel in 1959 – that rather than teaching computers everything they need to know about the world and how to carry out tasks, it might be possible to teach them to learn for themselves.

The second, more recently, was the emergence of the internet, and the huge increase in the amount of digital information being generated, stored, and made available for analysis.

Once these innovations were in place, engineers realized that rather than teaching computers and machines how to do everything, it would be far more efficient to code them to think like human beings, and then plug them into the internet to give them access to all of the information in the world.  (Emphasis added)

So, as this non-techie sees it, AI can enable machine learning whereby computers sift through huge amounts of data and discern the route to success.  They don’t have to be fed rules as in quantitative investing; they figure out the rules for themselves.

(One of the ways the best chess players become Grand Masters is by studying past chess matches, watching the moves that were made, and remembering what move was most successful in each situation, and the best response to that move.  But there are obvious limits to the number of games a person can study and the number of moves that can be remembered.  That’s the thing: a powerful-enough computer can review every game that’s ever been played, assess the consequences of every move, and decide on moves that will lead to success.  Thus computers are beating Grand Masters these days, and no one’s surprised anymore when they do.)

Machine learning is still in its infancy.  It may be that AI and machine learning will someday permit computers to act as full participants in the markets, analyzing and reacting in real time to vast amounts of data with a level of judgment and insight equal to or better than many investors.  But I doubt it will be anytime soon, and Soros’s Theory of Reflexivity reminds us that all those computers are likely to affect the market environment in ways that make it harder for them to achieve success.

The Impact on Investing


It’s only taken me until page fourteen to get to the issue that prompted me to start in on this memo: what these things imply for the future of our profession. 

For me, the situation regarding index and passive investing is clear: 

  • Most people can’t and don’t beat the market, especially in markets that are more-efficient.  On average, all portfolios’ returns are average before taking costs into account.
  • Active management introduces considerations such as management fees; commissions and market impact associated with trading; and the human error that often leads investors to buy and sell more at the wrong time than at the right time.  These all have negative implications for net results.
  • The only aspect of active management with potential to offset the above negatives is alpha, or personal skill.  However, relatively few people have much of it.
  • For this reason, large numbers of active managers fail to beat the market and justify their fees.  This isn’t just my conclusion: if it weren’t so, capital wouldn’t be flowing from active funds to passive funds as it has been.
  • Regardless, for decades active managers have charged fees as if they earned them.  Thus the profitability of many parts of the active investment management industry has been without reference to whether it added value for clients.

It’s important to note that the trend toward passive investing hasn’t occurred because the returns there have been great.  It’s because the results from active management have been poor, or at least not good enough to justify the fees charged.

Now clients have wised up, and unless something changes with regard to the above, the trend toward passive investing is going to continue.  What could arrest it?

  • More active managers could become capable of delivering alpha (but that’s not likely).
  • The markets could become easier to beat (that’ll probably happen from time to time).
  • Fees could come down so that they’re competitive with passive investment fees (but in that case it’s not clear how the active management infrastructure would be supported).

Unless there are flaws in the above reasoning, the trend toward passive investing is likely to continue.  At the very least, it reduces or eliminates management fees, trading costs, overtrading and human error: not a bad combination.

Of course, there are active investors who outperform.  Not most, and not half.  But there’s a minority who do earn their fees, and they should continue to be in demand.

*            *            *
Moving on to quantitative investing, it’s particularly interesting to assess the future.  The good news about quantitative investing is that it corrects many of the shortcomings of active management:

  • It can do much of what people do, generally without making “human mistakes.”
  • It can handle infinitely more data.
  • It excludes emotion; it never buys on euphoria or sells in panic.
  • It never forgets to rebalance: to sell the things that are expensive and buy the things that are cheap.

Quantitative investing makes good use of the ability of computers to handle vast amounts of data and their freedom from human error.  In short, I think computers can do more than the vast majority of investors, and do it better. 

Now for limitations.  I think of quantitative investing as also a free-riding strategy: it profits from disequilibria caused by others.  The supply of “nickels and dimes” is limited to the extent of those disequilibria, and thus only a limited amount of capital can be run this way to great advantage.  There has to be a reason why the best quant firm – Renaissance Technologies – has returned all outside capital from its flagship Medallion Fund; if an investment approach is infinitely scalable, by definition it’s never economic to limit the capital under management.  (Of course, all “alpha strategies” are based on taking advantage of the errors of others; thus the opportunities are limited to the scale of the errors – see “It’s All a Big Mistake” from June 20, 2012.)

And there are bigger-picture questions:  Can quantitative investing make superior qualitative decisions?  And can it invest for the long term?

This brings me back to one of my very favorite quotations.  It’s from sociologist William Bruce Cameron, although many people attribute it to Albert Einstein (I’ve done so in the past):

. . . not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted.

Computers can do an unmatched job dealing with the things that can be counted: things that are quantitative and objective.  But many other things – qualitative, subjective things – count for a great deal, and I doubt computers can do what the very best investors do:

  • Can they sit down with a CEO and figure out whether he’s the next Steve Jobs?
  • Can they listen to a bunch of venture capital pitches and know which is the next Amazon?
  • Can they look at several new buildings and tell which one will attract the most tenants?
  • Can they predict the outcome of a bankruptcy reorganization where the parties may have motivations other than economic maximization?

Further, quantitative investing’s emphasis on profiting from short-term dislocations leaves a lot more to be mined.  So much of investing these days considers only the short run that I think there’s great scope for superior active investors to make value-additive decisions concerning the long run.  I have no reason to believe computers can make these in a superior way.

The greatest investors aren’t necessarily better than others at arithmetic, accounting or finance; their main advantage is that they see merit in qualitative attributes and/or in the long run that average investors miss.  And if computers miss them too, I doubt the best few percent of investors will be retired anytime soon. 

Will machine learning enable computers to study the entirety of financial history, figure out what made for the most successful investments, and sense what will work in the future?  I have no way of knowing, but even if so, I think that’s not enough.  Computers, artificial intelligence and big data will help investors know more and make better quantitative decisions.  But until computers have creativity, taste, discernment and judgment, I think there’ll be a role for investors with alpha. 

(My confidence that our jobs are safe is not unlimited, however.  It’s interesting to note that in 2016, a group at Stanford developed a computer program that correctly distinguished between suspenseful and non-suspenseful written passages 81% of the time.  The researchers got it to do this by agreeing on what features contribute to suspense and then getting the program to recognize them and learn to identify new ones.)

Importantly, the trends toward both quantitative investing and artificial intelligence presuppose the availability of vast amounts of data regarding fundamentals and prices.  A great deal of such data is on hand with regard to public companies and their securities.  On the other hand, many of the things Oaktree and other alternative investors are involved in are private, non-traded and relatively undocumented: things like distressed debt, direct lending, private equity, real estate and venture capital.  AI/machine learning eventually will make its way into these fields, but a good bit of time is likely to pass before it is sufficiently sophisticated and data is sufficiently available to permit computers to act autonomously.

Finally, I view this situation kind of like index investing: if the day comes when intelligent machines run all the money, won’t they all (a) see everything the same, (b) reach the same conclusions, (c) design the same portfolio, and thus (d) perform the same?  What, then, will be the route to superior performance?  Humans with superior insight.  At least that’s my hope.


June 18, 2018

 



Legal Information and Disclosures
This memorandum expresses the views of the author as of the date indicated and such views are subject to change without notice.  Oaktree has no duty or obligation to update the information contained herein.  Further, Oaktree makes no representation, and it should not be assumed, that past investment performance is an indication of future results.  Moreover, wherever there is the potential for profit there is also the possibility of loss.
This memorandum is being made available for educational purposes only and should not be used for any other purpose.  The information contained herein does not constitute and should not be construed as an offering of advisory services or an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any securities or related financial instruments in any jurisdiction.  Certain information contained herein concerning economic trends and performance is based on or derived from information provided by independent third-party sources.  Oaktree Capital Management, L.P. (“Oaktree”) believes that the sources from which such information has been obtained are reliable; however, it cannot guarantee the accuracy of such information and has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of such information or the assumptions on which such information is based. 
This memorandum, including the information contained herein, may not be copied, reproduced, republished, or posted in whole or in part, in any form without the prior written consent of Oaktree.
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Get Rich with Dividends

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Trading Development

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Learning

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