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Wednesday, February 28, 2018

查理蒙格:多談談你的失敗 少吹噓你的成功

作者:美國消費 | 2018 / 02 / 28
文章來源:雪球 | 圖片來源:Berber

如果說投資圈有神話,那無疑是華倫·巴菲特 (Warren Buffett) 和查理·蒙格 (Charlie Munger)。前者是大名鼎鼎的“股神”,後者則是“股神”幕後的“超級智囊”。如何才能成為像查理·蒙格這樣的“超級智囊”呢?查理·蒙格曾說過:“如果你們真的想要在某個領域做得很出色,那麼你們必須對它有強烈的興趣。還有就是,你們一定要非常勤奮才行。”,今天,我們來看一下查理·蒙格數十年人生智慧的總結。

1. 大部分人都太浮躁、擔心得太多。成功需要非常平靜有耐心,但是機會來臨的時候也要足夠進取。

2. 根據股票的波動性來判斷風險是很傻的。我們認為只有兩種風險:一,血本無歸;二,回報不足。有些很好的生意也是波動性很大的,比如 See’s 糖果通常一年有兩個季度都是虧錢的。反倒是有些爛透了的公司生意業績很穩定。

3. 所謂的“息稅折舊攤銷前利潤”就是狗屎。

4. 巴菲特有時會提到“折現現金流”,但是我從來沒見過他算這個。(巴菲特答曰“沒錯,如果還要算才能得出的價值那就太不值得依賴了”)

5. 如果你買了一個價值低估的股票,你就要等到價格達到你算出來的內在價值時賣掉,這是很難算的。但是如果你買了一個偉大的公司,你就坐那兒待著就行了。

6. 我們買過一個紡織廠(波克夏·海瑟威)和一個加州的存貸行 (Wesco (WCC-US) ),這兩個後來都帶來了災難,但是我們買的時候,價格都比清算價值打折還低。

7. 網路對於社會是極為美好的,但是對於資本家來說純屬禍害。網路能提高效率,但是有很多東西都是提高效率卻降低利潤的。網路會讓美國的企業少賺錢而不是多賺錢。

8. 市面上對每個投資專家的評價都是高於平均的,不管有多少證據證明其實根本不是那回事。

9. 同第 5 條。如果你買了一個偉大的公司,你就坐那兒待著就行了。

10. 巴菲特每個禮拜有 70 個小時花在思考投資上。

11. 人們算得太多、想得太少。

12. 無論何時,如果你覺得有東西在摧毀你的生活,那個東西就是你自己。老覺得自己是受害者的想法,是最削弱自己的利器。

13. 稅法決定了,還是買個偉大公司坐等它飛起來最划算。

14. 如果你買的股票每年複利回報 15%,持續 30 年,而你最後一次性賣掉的時候交 35% 的稅,那你的年回報還有 13.3%。反之,對於同一支股票,如果你每年都賣一次交一次稅,那你的年回報就只有 9.75%。這個 3.5% 的差距放大到 30 年是讓人大開眼界的 (博主註:30 年後前者回報 42.35 倍,後者只有 16.3 倍,相差 26.05 倍)。

15. 最重要的,是要把股票看作對於企業的一小片所有權,以企業的競爭優勢來判斷內在的價值。要尋找未來折現的現金利潤比你支付的股價高的機會。這是很基礎的,你得明白機率,只有當你贏的機率更大的時候才去下賭注。

16. 人們破產的常見原因是不能控制心理上的糾結。你花了這麼多心血、這麼多金錢,花的越多,就越容易這麼想:“估計快成了,再多花一點兒,就能成了……” 人們就是這麼破產的 — 因為他們不肯停下來想想:“之前投入的就算沒了,我還承受得起,我還可以重新振作。我不需要為這件事情沉迷不悟,這可能會毀了我的。”

17. 說到我這輩子在生意中見過的錯誤,過度追求避稅是一個常見的讓人做傻事的原因。我看到有人為了避稅做很大的錯事。巴菲特和我雖然不是挖石油的,但是我們該交的稅都交,我們現在也過得挺好的。要是有人向你販售避稅套餐,別買。

18. 我認為我們 (美國) 正處於或者接近我們文明的頂點……如果 50 或者 100 年後,我們 (美國) 只比得上亞洲某國家的的三分之一,我一點也不會覺得奇怪。如果要賭,這世界上將來做得最棒的應該是亞洲。

19. 某些程度上,股票就像是林布蘭的畫。它們的價格基於過去成交的價格。債券要理性得多,沒有人認為債券的價格會高到天上去。想像一下如果美國所有的退休基金都去買林布蘭的油畫,它們都會升值並且引來一幫追隨者。

20.有人認為阿根廷和日本發生的事情在我們這裡 (美國) 絶對不會發生,這種想法是很瘋狂的。

21.比起機構投資者,不動產投資信託 (REIT) 更適合個人投資者。巴菲特還留著一些煙頭性格 (編者按:意指其早期偏重葛拉漢 (Ben Graham) 的投資價值,低估企業的風格) ,這讓他願意在人們不喜歡不動產投資信託,並且市價跌到八折以下的時候,用自己的私房錢買 REIT。

22. 聰明人也不免遭受過度自信帶來的災難,他們認為自己有更強的能力和更好的方法,所以往往他們就在更艱難的道路上疲於奔命。

23. “莊家優勢”是個在現代理財學裡很有意思的概念,那些金融機構的基金經理看上去很像是賭場裡的總管,只是規模更大。

24. 三人行必有我師,要成為領導者之前必須先做跟隨者。

25. 我們總是在學習、修正、甚至顛覆各種主意。在恰當時機下快速顛覆你的想法是一項很重要的品質,你要強迫自己去考慮對立的觀點。如果你不能比你的對手更好地說服對方,那說明你的理解還不夠。

26. 我以前那個年代,漢堡包 0.05 美元一個、最低時薪是 0.4 美元,所以我算是見證了巨大的通膨了。但它摧毀了投資環境嗎?我不這麼認為。

27. 大部分生活和事業上的成功來自於有意避免了一些東西:早死、錯誤的婚姻等等。

28. 有兩種錯誤:一,什麼都不做 (看到了機會卻束之高閣),巴菲特說這個叫做“吮指之錯”;二,本來該一堆一堆地買的東西,我們卻只買了一眼藥水瓶的量。

29. 經常對照一下清單可以避免錯誤。你們應該掌握這些基礎的智慧,對照清單之前還要過一遍心理清單 (意指平常心),這個方法是無可替代的。

30. 打官司是出了名的費時、費力、低效,以及難料結果。

31. 連續 40 年每年回報 20% 的投資只存在於夢想之國。現實世界中,你得尋找機會,然後和其他機會對比,最後只找最吸引人的機會投資進去。這就是你的機會成本,這是你大一經濟學課上就學到的。遊戲並沒有發生什麼變化,所以所謂的“現代投資組合”理論非常愚蠢。

32. 最好是從別人的悲慘經歷中學到深刻教訓,而不是自己的。我們有些成功是早就預言的,有些是意外獲得的。

33. 一般認為,最好的情形就是你坐在辦公室裡,然後美好的投資機會一個接一個地被送到你面前 — 直到幾年之前,風投界的人們就是這樣享受的,但是我們完全不是這樣 — 我們就跟乞丐似的到處尋找好公司來買。20 年來,我們每年最多投資一到兩個公司……說我們已經挖地三尺了都不誇張。好機會是沒有專業推銷員的,如果你坐在那裡等待好機會來臨,那你的位置很危險。

34. 我們最大的錯誤是該做的沒做、該買的沒買。

35. 你只有學會怎麼學習你才會進步。

36. 我們長期努力保持不做傻事,所以我們的收穫比那些努力做聰明事的人要多得多。

37. BRK (Berkshire Hathaway,BRK.A-US) 的過去業績簡直輝煌得離譜。如果我們也用槓桿,哪怕比魯柏·梅鐸 (Rupert Murdoch) 用的少一半,也會比現在的規模大五倍。

38. 買可口可樂 (Coca-Cola,KO) 股票的時候我們花了幾個月才攢了10億美元的股票 — 是可口可樂總市值的 7%。要攢成主要股東是很難的。

39. 所有的大資本最終都會發現很難擴大,於是去尋找一些回報率更低的途徑。

40. 如果今天你的資本較少並且年輕,你的機會比我們那時候要少。我們年輕的時候剛走出大蕭條,資本主義那時候是一個貶義詞,在 20 年代對資本主義的批判更是肆虐。那時候流行一個笑話:有個人說“我買股票是為老了的時候考慮,沒想到六個月就用上了!我現在已經覺得自己是老人了。”你們的環境更加艱難,但並不意味著你們做不好 — 只是要多花些時間。不過,你們還可能活的更長呢。

41. 關於所謂“嬰兒潮 (美國 5、60年代出生) ”的人口學現象,其影響相對經濟成長的影響來說小很多。過去的一個世紀,美國的 GNP (國民生產總值) 成長了 7 倍。這不是嬰兒潮導致的,而是由美國資本主義的成功和技術的發展帶來的。這兩樣東西的影響太利多,嬰兒潮問題相比之下就是一個小波動。只要美國的 GNP 每年成長 3%,就能保持社會和平 — 足以覆蓋政客們的花銷。如果美國的發展停滯了,我敢保證,你們將會見證真切的代溝,不同代的人之間關係會很緊張。嬰兒潮是這種緊張的催化劑,但是根本原因還是經濟不成長。

42. 實際上,每個人都會把可以量化的東西看得過重,因為他們想“發揚”自己在學校裡面學的統計技巧,於是忽略了那些雖然無法量化但是更加重要的東西。我一生都致力於避免這種錯誤,我覺得我這麼做挺不錯的。

43. 你應該對各種學科的各種思維都有所理解,並且經常使用它們 — 它們的全部,而不是某幾個。大部分人都熟練於使用某一個單一的模型,比如經濟學模型,去解決所有的問題。應了一句老話:“拿鎚子的木匠,看書上的字就覺得像釘子。” 這是一種很不明智的做事方法。

44. 對於我而言,把股票分成“價值股”和“成長股”就是亂來。這種分法可以讓基金經理們藉以誇誇其談、也可以讓分析師們給自己貼個標籤,但是在我眼中,所有靠譜的投資都是價值投資。

45. 我這一輩子認識的所有智者,沒有不愛看書的。我和巴菲特看書之多都能嚇到你。我的孩子取笑我說我就是一本伸出兩條腿的書。

46. 我們都愛大量閲讀,聰明人都這樣,但這還不夠,你還應該有一種批判接受、合理應用的態度。大部分人看書都沒有抓到正確的重點,看完了又不會學以致用。

47. 我們經常從那些上進的孩子們那兒聽到這些問題。這是個很“聰明”的問題,你對著一個有錢老頭問:“我怎麼才能成為你呢?怎麼才能迅速地成為你呢?”

48. 我們如果要再開一家 See’s 糖果幾乎不用花費任何資本。我們的資本太多了都快淹死我們了,所以幾乎是零成本。對於有些極度缺錢的煎餅店,增設特許經營店簡直是瘋狂的事情。我們喜歡經營直營店以便更好地控制服務品質。

49. 做空行為是很危險的。

50. 坐在空頭位置,又看到股價遇到利多大漲,是一件特別讓人氣憤的事情。人生苦短,遭受這種氣憤太不值得了。

51. 世界上最鬱悶的事情之一,就是你費盡力氣發現了一個騙局 (並且做空這個公司),但是眼睜睜地看著股價繼續瘋漲三倍,這些騙子們拿著你的錢彈冠相慶,而你還要收到證券行的保證金追加通知。像這種鬱悶的事情你哪能去碰呢?

52. 上市的代價已經變得非常高了。一個小公司謀求上市是沒有什麼道理的,很多小公司正在朝私有化的路前進,以此擺脫上市公司的繁冗負擔。

53. 公開叫價的競價方式就是設計來讓人的腦子變成一鍋粥的:由於別人也在叫價,你覺得 (你的競價) 得到了社會認同,你會有一種回饋傾向,陷入一種“被剝奪超級反應傾向”,覺得 (必須想方設法阻止) 你的“心頭肉”離你而去……總之,我的意思就是,這種方式是設計來操縱人的心理的,讓人們去做白痴的事情。

54. 封閉式拍賣的問題在於標的物常常被那些犯了技術錯誤的一方贏得,比如殻牌石油 (Royal Dutch Shell, RDSA-US) 支付給貝利奇石油的價格是另一方的兩倍。在公開叫價的競標中,你就不可能比輸掉的那一方多付一倍的價錢。

55. 我們偏愛把大量的金錢投放到那些不需要我們再做什麼其他決策的地方。

56. 能理解投資的精髓也能讓你成為一個好的企業管理者,反之亦然。

57. 有件事情很有意思:你可能擁有一家價值 100 億美元的公司,而這家公司可能連 1 億美元都借不到。但是,由於公司是上市公司,公司的大股東憑著手裡的小紙片 (股票) 做擔保就能借到好幾十億美元。但如果公司不是上市的,它可能連那些大股東能借到的 20 分之一的錢都借不到。

58. 我經常見到一些並不聰明的人成功,他們甚至也並不十分勤奮,但是他們都是一些熱愛學習的“學習機器”;他們每天晚上睡覺的時候,都比那天早上起床的時候多了一點智慧。夥伴,如果你前面有很長的路要走的話,這可是大有裨益的啊。

59. 不管是對於私有企業的企業主還是上市公司的股東,進行買賣時參考的標準,應該是企業內在價值而不是過往成交的紀錄,這是最基本的價值觀念,而且我認為永遠也不會過時。

60. 巴菲特和我不是因為成功預測了總體經濟,並且依此下注,才獲得今天的成功的。

61. 提問者來自新加坡,新加坡可能是世界歷史上成績最輝煌的發展中國家,所以這位提問者才會把 15% 的成長率稱作“保守”。但其實這不是“保守”,這是很狂妄的,只有新加坡來的人才敢把 15% 稱作“保守”。

62. 我不會花太多時間追悔過去,一旦吸取了教訓,我就不會再陷在裡面了。

63. 如果你從我們的投資決策裡剔除掉最好的那 15 個,我們的表現就顯得非常平庸了。遊戲的重點不是非常多的動作,而是非常大的耐心。你要堅守你的原則,當機會出現的時候,就大力出擊。

64. 我們會把一些決策議題扔進名字叫做“太難了”的檔案櫃,然後去看其他的議題。

65. 如果想提高你的認知能力,忘記過去犯過的錯誤是絕對不行的。

66. 30 年代的時候,靠房產抵押得到的貸款可以比房子的售價更多。這大概就是現在私人股權領域的情形。

67. 模仿一大堆人意味著接近他們的平均水平。

68. 生命中的很多機遇都只會持續一小段時間,它們持續是因為 (別人) 暫時不便 (攫取它)……對於我們每個人,機不可失時不再來,所以你最好隨時預備好行動,並且有足夠的思想準備。

69. 有巨額佣金的地方常常就有騙局。

70. 承認自己不懂某樣東西,意味著智慧的曙光即將來臨。

71. 即使你不喜歡現實,也要承認現實 — 其實越是你不喜歡,你越應該承認現實。

72. 我們努力做到通過牢記常識賺錢,而不是通過知曉尖端知識賺錢。

73. 長期而言,一個公司股票的盈利很難比這個公司的盈利多。如果公司每年賺 6% 持續 40 年,你最後的年化報酬率也就是 6% 左右,即使你買的時候股票有很大的折扣。但反過來,如果公司每年資產報酬率達 18% 並且持續二三十年,即使你買的時候看起來很貴,他還是會給你帶來驚喜。

74. 就像工人必須瞭解自己工具的侷限性,用腦子吃飯的人也要知道自己腦子的侷限性。

75. 許多市場最終會形成兩到三個大競爭者 — 或者五到六個。其中,有些市場裡根本沒有人能賺到什麼錢,有些市場裡每個競爭者都做得不錯。

多年以來,我們一直在研究,為什麼有些市場裡的競爭比較理性,股東們獲得的回報都不錯,而有些市場裡的競爭則讓股東血本無歸。我們舉航空公司的例子來說吧,咱們現在坐在這裡,可以想到航空公司們為世界做出的各種貢獻 — 安全的旅行、更好的體驗、能夠隨時飛向你的愛人,等等。但是,這個行業自從萊特兄弟的時代以來,給股東們回報的利潤是負的,而且是一個巨大的負數。

這個市場裡的競爭是如此激烈,以至於一旦放開監管,航空公司們就開始 (大降價) 來損害股東們的權益。然而,在另外一些行業裡,比如麥片行業,幾乎所有的競爭者都混得挺舒服,如果你是一家中型的麥片生產商,你大概能有 15% 的資產報酬率。

如果你的本事特別好,甚至能達到 40%。但是為什麼麥片這麼掙錢呢?在我看來他們整天用各種瘋狂的行銷、推廣、優惠券來激烈競爭,竟然還這麼掙錢。我不是很明白。顯然,品牌效應的因素是麥片行業有而航空行業沒有的。

這可能是個主要因素。或者麥片生產商們有共識,認為誰都不可以那麼瘋狂地競爭 — 因為如果有一個傻子視市場佔有率如命根,比如說如果我是家樂氏 (Kellogg Company,K-US) 的老闆,然後我決定要搶佔 60% 的市場佔有率,我想我可以把這個市場的大部分利潤都給弄沒了。

這個過程中我可能會把家樂氏給毀掉,但是我想我還是可以做到 (佔據市場以及消滅行業利潤)。你應該有信心去顛覆那些比你資深的人,條件是他們的認知被動機導致的偏見矇蔽了、或者被類似的心理因素明顯影響了。但是在另外一些情況下,你應該認識到你也許沒有什麼新意可想 — 你最好的選擇就是相信這些領域中的專家。

76. 我們發現那些在生意中優勝的“系統”,往往有些變數被近乎荒謬地最大化或者最小化 — 比如 Costco (Costco Wholesale Co,COST-US) 的打折倉庫店。

77. 有些情況比坐擁大量現金無處可投更糟糕。我還記得當年缺錢的情景 — 我可不想回到那個時候。

78. 如果你在發出指令和訴求的時候,總是告訴他們你的原因,他們就會更好地理解你的意圖,並且覺得你的想法更重要,也就更願意聽你的。

79. 量入而出、時刻攢錢、把錢放到可以延期交稅的帳戶裡。時間長了,你就會攢出一筆財富了,這完全不需要動什麼腦子。

80. 我儘量遠離那些不懂裝懂的人。

81. 我覺得先好好掌握別人已經整理好的知識,才是靠譜的學習方法。我不認可那種閉門造車自己鼓搗出結果的方法,沒人能那麼聰明。

82. 我有個熟人,他們家旁邊那個房子看起來很不起眼,但是竟然賣了 1700 萬美元。房市價格有很極端的泡沫。

83. 經驗告訴我們,當機會來臨的時候,如果你有足夠的準備,並且適時、果斷、有魄力地做一些簡單而合理的事情,就能奇蹟般地讓你致富。偶爾出現的這種機會,往往賜予那些時刻準備著、一直搜尋著、並且願意分析複雜事物的人。當機會出現的時候,你所要做的全部事情,就是使用你平時謹慎耐心攢下來的彈藥、大手筆下注在那些勝算極大的賭局上。

84. 現在這個時代是以往的資本主義中沒見過的。與以往相比,我們有史上最多的知識分子投身在炒賣股票和投機倒把上,許多我所見到的事情讓我聯想起索多瑪和蛾摩拉 (墮落罪惡之城)。自私、妒忌、還有各種仿冒貨。以前也有過這些事情,它們導致了可怕的後果。

85. 我們的投資風格被稱作焦點投資,意在持有十隻股票、而不是一百個或者四百個。好投資不好找,所以應該集中在那些少數幾個好的上,這對於我是很顯而易見的事情,但是投資界 98% 的人都不這麼想,這對我們倒是挺好的。

86. 你要當心過於強烈的意識形態觀念,如果你腦子裡只有一個念頭的話那是非常危險的。

87. 和巴菲特一樣,我有很強烈的致富慾望,不是因為我喜歡法拉利 (Ferrari NV,RACE-US) 什麼的,而是我喜歡獨立,我極度渴望獨立。

88. 每一個有工程師思維的人看到會計準則都會想吐。

89. 多談談你的失敗歷程、少吹噓你的成功經歷,這樣對你好。

https://www.stockfeel.com.tw/%e6%9f%a5%e7%90%86%e8%92%99%e6%a0%bc%ef%bc%9a%e5%a4%9a%e8%ab%87%e8%ab%87%e4%bd%a0%e7%9a%84%e5%a4%b1%e6%95%97-%e5%b0%91%e5%90%b9%e5%99%93%e4%bd%a0%e7%9a%84%e6%88%90%e5%8a%9f/

Johore Tin Berhad - Attractive Dividend Yield

Author:   |    Publish date: 


Review

  • Johore Tin Berhad’s (JTB) FY17 adjusted net profit came in below ours and consensus full-year estimates at 71% and 69% respectively. This was due to higher-than-expected raw material and operating costs.
  • After excluding exceptional items, adjusted net profit for FY17 declined by 28.0% YoY to RM23.1mn. This was due to decline in reportable profit across tin manufacturing segment and food & beverage (F&B) segment by 26.1% and 22.5% respectively on the back of higher operating and raw material costs (i.e. tinplates, sugar and pam oil). This was partially offset by increase in revenue by 4.3% YoY and 8.8% YoY in the tin manufacturing and F&B segment respectively for FY17 due to higher sales in products.
  • QoQ, adjusted net profit declined by 86.3% to RM1.1mn as segmentally, F&B division reportable profit declined by 74.4% QoQ attributable to i) higher operating costs post commissioning of new repackaging of milk powder factory and; ii) higher raw material costs (i.e. sugar and palm oil). While the tin manufacturing returned to the black at RM3.5mn from a net loss of RM0.4mn in the previous quarter due to increase in revenue by 3.3% QoQ and cost savings achieved from supplier discount for one of the machineries.
  • The group declared a single-tier fourth interim dividend of 1.0sen/share in the current quarter. Cumulatively, JTB has declared a total DPS of 5.5sen/share for FY17 (previously 4.0sen/share in FY16).

Impact

  • We downgrade our earnings forecast by 13.1% and 11.2% for FY18 and FY19 respectively after lowering our revenue assumptions in line with competitive market environment and increasing our operating costs assumptions considering higher administrative expenses and distribution expenses. We are also introducing FY20 earnings forecast which is expected to provide 4.6% YoY growth.

Outlook

  • We believe that FY18 revenue will be driven by: i) ramping up of capacity of milk-repackaging factory from 25% to 35% utilisation rate; ii) increase in demand for milk-based products domestically and globally and; iii) higher sales from printing services in the manufacturing segment.
  • Management guided that they are wary of the uptrend in global prices of tinplates, which could drag profit margins for the manufacturing segment. However, some of the costs of tinplates may be passed on to clients, hence retaining profit margin at 10% level for FY18.
  • F&B segment is expected to benefit from the downtrend in skimmed-milk powder price. However, high refined palm oil and sugar prices are expected to drag profit margin down for the F&B segment.

Valuation

  • Maintain our BUY call on JTB with lower target price of RM1.48sen/share (previously RM1.75sen/share) based on SOP-valuation. Reasons for our call are: i) rise in tinplate costs are able to be passed on to clients hence maintaining net profit margin at 10% for tin manufacturing division; ii) higher contribution from the milk powder products as JTB ramp up capacity to 35% utilisation rate and; iii) healthy balance sheet allows for attractive dividends.
Source: TA Research - 28 Feb 2018

Thong Guan Industries Bhd - FY17 Below Expectations

Author: kiasutrader | Publish date: Wed, 28 Feb 2018, 10:53 AM

FY17 core earnings of RM48.1m came in below our expectation (80%) on higher-than-expected cost. Final dividend of 8.0 sen is also below our expectation (67%). Lower FY18E CNP by 20% to RM53.4m on margin compressions, and introduce FY19E CNP of RM56.9m. Maintain OUTPERFORM on a lower TP of RM4.05 (from RM5.55) based on a lower FY18E FD EPS of 29.0 sen and lower Target PER of 14.0x.

FY17 core net profit (CNP) of RM48.1m came in below our expectation at 80%. Top-line was well within our expectations at 99%, but bottom-line missed due to higher cost this quarter attributable to freight, sales and promotional expenses, staff cost and operating losses from its F&B segment, dragging 4Q17 CNP margins to 1.8% (from 7.2% in 3Q17). No consensus available. A final dividend of 8.0 sen was announced for FY17, which is below our expectation at 67%, while we assumed a 25% pay-out ratio vs. actual pay-out of 18% of net profit. Note that TGUAN does not have a formal dividend policy.

Results Highlights. YoY-Ytd, TGUAN’s top-line grew by 11% driven by growth from its plastic segment (+11%) as well as the F&B segment (+13%). However, EBIT margin declined by 3.1ppt on higher cost from freight, sales and promotional expenses, staff cost and operating losses from its F&B segment which dragged down CNP to 11%. QoQ,top-line declined by 3% on lower sales volume from its China operations. However, EBIT margins declined by 95% on higher cost, similar to reasons mentioned above. All in, CNP declined by 76% on higher financing cost (+48%).

Outlook. TGUAN has plans for a 5-layer blown film line which we expect earnings to accrete mostly in FY18, while we are estimating capacity to grow by 5% in FY19. TGUAN is consistently investing in R&D to improve sales and margins on existing products (i.e. stretch film) and continues to revamp its customer base to target more MNCs. The Group is focussing on continued expansion into high-margin production lines to sustain the plastic segment’s margins going forward.

We lower FY18E CNP by 20% to RM53.4m and introduce FY19E CNP of RM56.9m. In light of the higher cost this quarter, we are lowering FY18E CNP margins to 6.2% (from 7.1%) as we are more conservative going forward, and seek further clarification from management on the cost outlook over FY18-19. We introduce FY19E CNP of RM56.9m, on 6.4% CNP margins. Additionally, we lower our dividend pay-out estimates to 20% (from 25%), implying FY18-19E NDPS of 10.0-10.6 sen (2.8-2.9% yield).

Maintain OUTPERFORM, but on a lower TP of RM4.05 (from RM5.55). We lower our FY18E FD EPS to 29.0 sen (from 32.6 sen) on a lower Target PER of 14.0x (from 15.3x). Even post trimming our earnings significantly and on the lowest applied PER among plastic packagers under our coverage (17.4-19.2x applied PER), TGUAN still warrants an OUTPERFORM call. We like TGUAN for its undemanding valuations, and we believe we have priced in most foreseeable downside risks for now. Going forward, management is still focussed on improving margins and we are of the view that margins will soon revert to normalised levels, while its strong net cash position allows for further capacity expansion.

Source: Kenanga Research - 28 Feb 2018

Business Sense is More Important Than FA and TA - Koon Yew Yin

Author: Koon Yew Yin | Publish date: Wed, 28 Feb 2018, 03:05 PM

Immediately after the announcement of the closure of Megasteel in early September 2016 all the share prices of steel manufacturers and traders invariably shot through the roof. Steel players are Masteel, Southern Steel, CSC Steel, Mycron, Annjoo; downstream players like Choo Bee, Leon Fuat, AYS, Leader Steel etc Investors simply bought them without knowing what the businesses of the companies and who are their customers. They bought the shares as if there was no tomorrow.

Southern Steel: manufactures reinforcement steel bars for building construction and black and galvanized steel pipes for other uses.

Malaysia Steel: manufactures reinforcement steel bars for the building construction.

Choo Bee: manufactures small diameter water pipes and hollow and angle section for building construction.

Mycron: Manufactures cold rolled steel coil (CRC) or sheets for motor and appliances, fridges, steel furniture etc.

CSC Steel: Manufactures cold rolled steel coil (CRC) or sheets for motor and appliances, fridges, steel furniture etc.

Our famous Mr Ooi Teik Bee has been publishing several articles to promote Malaysia Steel since the closure of Megasteel in Sept 2016. Once I wrote about Malaysia Steel to prevent people from losing money. But Mr Ooi Teik Bee told me that I should not publish anything against his interest. You must know that Mr Ooi teaches FA and TA and he does not care about the company’s business.

Business sense

As everyone can see there is an oversupply of buildings in every town and city in Malaysia, investors should know how this situation will affect all the steel manufacturers. Malaysia Steel makes steel bars for the concrete construction. How can the company make more profit?

Of course, there will be still a few stubborn investors who refused to admit their mistake and cut loss. They are hoping for some miracle that can improve the price of their holdings.

Beside financial and technical analysis, investors must have some business sense to be really successful. All you need is common sense and you do not need an accountant to make money from the stock market. I am not an accountant and I can hardly understand a balance sheet, cash flow etc.

That is why and how I bought so much JAKS when it is still not showing any profit yet. After I took Mr Ooi to visit the Jaks’ power plant construction site in Hanoi, he still did not buy to support me. I started to worry if I was really wrong. Where am I going to hide my face?

Fortunately, the analyst from Public Bank and the analyst from Affin Hwang wrote their recommendations after their visit. The later has a target price of Rm 2.23 per share.

Now I should feel exonerated if I was really wrong.

Malaysia Steel announced its 4th quarter ending Dec 2017 with a reduced profit yesterday. Mr Ooi circulated his comment on the Masteel’s result announcement last night. He is still optimistic.

As I am writing, its price has dropped 20 sen from Rm 1.40 to Rm 1.20 per share.

Many of my critics from i3investor forum told me to shut up because it is not my business to say anything about Masteel because I do not even own one share.

Tuesday, February 27, 2018

YTL Power 'buy', Sime Darby 'reduce'

CORPORATE NEWS
Tuesday, 27 Feb 2018
by analyst reports

YTL POWER INTERNATIONAL BHD

By UOB Kay Hian Malaysia Research

Buy (maintained)

Target price: RM1.65

Energy firm YTL Power’s lower earnings in the first half of financial year 2018 (H1’18) were within expectations, according to UOB Kay Hian Malaysia Research.

The research house said the stronger ringgit had led to a decline in Wessex Water’s contribution, which in turn caused YTL Power’s H1’18 core net profit to fall by 15% year-on-year (y-o-y) to RM314.1mil.

Wessex Water is a YTL Power-owned water and wastewater services company based in the United Kingdom.

“While H1FY18 results account for only 42% and 41% of house and street estimates, we deem the results to be within expectations as effective tax rates appears higher at this point.

“For full year, we expect tax rates to normalise at 20% as compared to 27% and 13% in H1’18 and FY17 respectively,” it said in a note.

On the group’s financial performance in the second quarter, UOB Kay Hian Malaysia Research said that YTL Power’s top line rose 7% y-o-y and 2% quarter-on-quarter on the back of a RM197mil contribution from the Paka power plant, which commenced operation on Sept 1, 2017 for a short-term extension of nearly four years.

Apart from that, the higher revenue was also attributed to a 15% y-o-y increase in Wessex Water revenue and a higher subscriber base for YES, YTL Power’s telecommunications venture.

This was partly offset by a 10% decline in YTL Power’s power generation business, Power Seraya’s contribution due to the tough operating environment in Singapore as a result of generation capacity oversupply in the city-state.

The research house has left its earnings forecasts for FY18-19 unchanged.

“A depreciating sterling pound against the ringgit could see Wessex Water’s contribution decline in terms of nominal ringgit value and percentage to YTL Power’s bottom line. Every 1% change in the exchange rate will swing YTL Power’s net profit by 1.5%.

“This will also affect potential dividend payout as the bulk of cash flow for dividends is derived solely from Wessex Water,” said UOB Kay Hian Malaysia Research.

The research firm has reiterated its “buy” call on YTL Power on the back of near-term dividend yield of 5% to 6% and earnings upside from the group’s APCO and Tanjung Jati power plant projects, which is expected to lift future earnings by 60% by 2022.


Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/02/27/analyst-reports/#4RKLewKB8YE4bm0v.99

Kronologi income boosted by India subsidiary

CORPORATE NEWS
Tuesday, 27 Feb 2018

Kronologi acting CEO, chief technology officer and executive director Philip Teo(pic) expects the group’s FY2018 performance to be better than that of FY2017, in view of the full consolidation of QHK’s revenue and profit

PETALING JAYA: Enterprise data management (EDM) and data storage solutions firm Kronologi Asia Bhd registered a 68.5% growth in its net profit for the financial year ended Dec 31, 2017 (FY2017), compared to the previous financial year.

This was mainly attributed to full-year contributions from the group’s wholly-owned India subsidiary, Quantum Storage (India) Pte Ltd (QSI).

QSI, which was consolidated in October 2016, accounted for three months of Kronologi’s financial performance in FY2016.

In December 2017, Kronologi extended its regional footprint through the RM45mil acquisition of Quantum Storage (Hong Kong) Ltd (QHK).

QHK contributed to one month’s financial performance for FY2017.

In a press release yesterday, Kronologi said 95.9% of its FY2017 revenue of RM144.37mil came from its EDM Infrastructure Technology division. South-East Asia, including Singapore, was the group’s main revenue driver, recording RM90.3mil in FY2017, a 51% increase compared to the previous year.

Kronologi acting CEO, chief technology officer and executive director Philip Teo(pic) expects the group’s FY2018 performance to be better than that of FY2017, in view of the full consolidation of QHK’s revenue and profit.

“Having recently completed our expansion to Hong Kong and Taiwan, we are confident of our enhanced value proposition for customers across Asia for both the EDM and managed services groups.

“We expect the demand for EDM solutions to continue growing as more enterprises in the region increase their storage requirements. Government-backed IT adoption initiatives across the region also augur well for our unique value proposition,” he said.

Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/02/27/kronologi-income-boosted-by-india-subsidiary/#DMz3OcrLBcW6q6G9.99

Pos Malaysia top loser as 3Q net profit falls 72%

STOCK ON THE MOVE
Tuesday, 27 Feb 20189:33 AM MYT

KUALA LUMPUR: Pos Malaysia Bhd shed as much as 5% in early trade after reporting a 72% net profit profit in the third quarter ended Dec 31, 2017.

The postal group saw its shares lost 27 sen, or 5.41% to RM4.72, making it the top loser so far today.

Pos Malaysia’s net profit fell 72% to RM9.48mil year-on-year for the third quarter ended Dec 31, 2017 (3QFY18) against RM33.41mil last year.

The group was hit by lower revenue coupled with higher operational costs in 3QFY18.

Revenue was lower by 2% to RM620.7mil compared with RM635.7mil a year ago.

Pos Malaysia said its postal services segment registered lower revenue of RM170.1mil compared with RM187.1mil last year due to the decline in traditional mail volume coupled with lower transactions in retail segment from bill payments, insurance commission as well as reduction in commission rate of unit trust.

For the first nine months to Dec 31, 2017, Pos Malaysia reported a net profit of RM64.2mil on revenue of RM1.81bil.

Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/02/27/pos-malaysia-top-loser-as-3q-net-profit-falls-72pc/#B0rpm2p0yPigafGs.99

李聲揚:「死亡3厘」不能迴避

文章日期:2018年2月27日

【明報專訊】港股及美股均由月初小股災的低位反彈不少。但市場情緒明顯變得謹慎,留意近日港股成交偏低,「港股通」重開後也未能重回小股災前的成交水平。投資者無法再假裝「一切如常」,「繼續打牌」。執筆之時美國債息由高位回落不少,市場重新亢奮,但大家再不能迴避「死亡3厘」。

美國債息由低位反彈已有一段時間,投資者很長時間選擇無視這頭房中的大象。若完全相信直線思維,定會認為「2.5厘升至2.7厘無事發生,為何2.7厘升至2.9厘會觸發股災」?不知道,但最後壓垮駱駝的,也是一根稻草。

長痛不如短痛 寧願國債快快升穿3厘

潘朵拉的盒子已經打開,即使債息暫時回落,上試3厘,似乎也只是遲早問題。純學院派出身的,當然會認為3厘只是一個數字,正如「紅底股」,「3萬點」本身不具任何意義。問題是股市債市均是人的遊戲,程式買賣也(暫時)先由人類預設。債息到達3厘時,會不會觸發大量程式沽盤?不知道。但筆者向來相信長痛不如短痛,寧願債息快快上試3厘,若突破3厘而資本市場沒有太大震動,投資者可能會重拾信心。

筆者始終是樂觀派,擔心通脹似乎仍是過早。不敢倚老賣老,但讀多一點歷史總是好事。現今的評論員分析員,看到2%至3%的通脹(其實仍未到達)已哇哇叫,經歷過雙位數通脹的前輩很難不偷笑。

人口老化科技躍進 通脹難成氣候

全球人口老化是不能逆轉的趨勢,共享經濟並非有利無弊,但完全有助提高效率,善用現今的閒置資源。亞馬遜等等巨頭以低價痛擊傳統行業,並為新競爭者築起高高的門檻。機器人、人工智能,大數據等等漸見收成,人類可能連工作都難保,還談什麼加薪通脹?

2010歐債危機年代,也有「死亡7厘」之說,有說債息升破7厘,國家則陷入死亡漩渦,萬劫不復。8年過去,意大利西班牙愛爾蘭葡萄牙安然無恙,債息也跌回低位。歷史不一定重複,但即使美國債息升破3厘,相信瓶中的精靈也可以被放回去。

[李聲揚 股市非常道]

https://www.mpfinance.com/fin/columnist2.php?col=1463481140709&node=1519671289141&issue=20180227

湯文亮:股樓市場上口是心非的人

文章日期:2018年2月27日

【明報專訊】狗年股市首4個交易日,兩升兩跌,埋單計數,恒指升了些少,但最奇怪的是首個交易日,竟然沒有開紅盤,因為在農曆年底,美國ADR顯示,恒指大約升了400多點,道指亦大升,所以全部人包括一股不留大師在內,都認為狗年股市是會開紅盤,甚至是大紅盤。不過,狗年首個交易日收市,出乎大家意料之外,恒指竟然下跌200多點,本來恒指升跌如兵家勝敗,閒事一件,但在全部人都認為股市上升的時候恒指下跌,實在是有點那個,也證明了一件事,並不是專家預測不準確,而是市場上有很多人口是心非,表面上話股市會繼續上升,暗地裏就沽貨。不過,這並不是只發生在股票市場,樓市隨時也有相同情况。

表面說升市 暗地裏沽貨

近日,我比較少做那些單對單現場直播講樓市節目,網站話很難搵到人願意與我一起探討,眾所周知,我是一個比較睇淡樓市的投資者,其他專家差不多一致睇好樓市。理論上應該非常喜歡與我對壘,但沒有專家喜歡,因為很怕我問一條問題,就是問他們有沒有自住物業,如果答沒有,我會再追問以前是否曾經擁有,對於那些專家來說,這是一條很尷尬的問題。

事實上,與我一起探討樓市的專家之中,至少有一半現在並沒有自住單位,但他們當中有不少人是曾經擁有過的,但近兩年見有不俗利潤,已經將自住單位賣走,但現在他們是睇好樓市的人,所以他們現在不肯與我對壘,怕我說他們口是心非,睇好樓市但又將自住單位賣走。

若多人搶購就不需高成數按揭

中原樓價指數再創新高,業界解釋銀行存款水浸,太多人搶購物業,如果是真的話,地產商甚至物業代理就不用推出高成數按揭,就不會有那麼多已入伙的新樓貨尾單位。既然樓價必升,銀行體系內的14萬億元存款,最少有一部分會用作買樓,點解要存放在銀行,收取雞碎咁多的利息?那些存戶之中,有不少是表明睇好樓市,但睇還睇,就係唔肯落疊,情願將資金存放在銀行,我覺得這也是一個口是心非的例子。

紀惠集團行政總裁

[湯文亮 敢說亮話]

https://www.mpfinance.com/fin/columnist2.php?col=1463481149913&node=1519671292292&issue=20180227

Scientex rises on plan to acquire Klang Hock Plastic

Neily Syafiqah Eusoff / theedgemarkets.com
February 26, 2018 11:08 am +08

KUALA LUMPUR (Feb 26): Scientex Bhd shares rose as much as 27 sen or 3% to RM8.94 after the group said it is acquiring 100% of Klang Hock Plastic Industries Sdn Bhd (KHPI) for RM190 million cash to expand Scientex's product portfolio in the plastic packaging segment.

At 10:37am, Scientex shares were traded at RM8.83 to become Bursa Malaysia's 10th-largest gainer. Scientex saw 330,000 shares transacted.

Scientex shares resumed trading today following a suspension on Friday.

On Friday, Scientex said its wholly-owned subsidiary Scientex Packaging Film Sdn Bhd had entered into a sale and purchase agreement with the KHPI stake owners. They are Law Wan Hong @ Lew Wan Hong, Ng Boon Eu, Lew Pei See @ Law Pei See and Lew Pei Lin @ Law Pei Lin.

Today, TA Securities Holdings Bhd analyst Damia Othman wrote in a note that TA had maintained its buy call on Scientex shares with a higher target price of RM10.01 compared to RM9.84 previously.

"We are positive on this news as this will allow the group to: i) strengthen its position in the global flexible plastic packaging (FPP) market; ii) enhance its production capacity and product portfolio as well as iii) increase [its] clientele reach," Damia said.

Metro Healthcare up 43.5% after LEAP market debut

Tan Xue Ying / theedgemarkets.com
February 26, 2018 11:02 am +08

KUALA LUMPUR (Feb 26): Women health care provider Metro Healthcare Bhd surged as much as 10 sen or 43.5% this morning, shortly after the company debuted on Bursa Malaysia's LEAP Market.

The counter saw its first transaction comprising 2,000 shares made at 28 sen, representing a 21.7% premium over its issue price of 23 sen.

At 10.20am, the counter saw 25,000 shares traded, giving it a market capitalisation of RM62.2 million.

"We are one of the pioneers, especially in reproductive medicines, and given our track record, expertise and good success rate, we can do well. Based on our existing trend, this year we are expecting revenue growth to be more than 10% year-on-year," its managing director Lim Wai Khong told reporters at a press conference after the listing ceremony here, along with executive chairman Dr Tee Swi Peng.

According to Metro Healthcare's listing information memorandum, the company had earlier placed 20.08 million shares to raise gross proceeds of RM4.62 million.

Of this, RM3.42 million is earmarked for business expansion to Johor Bahru and Melaka, and RM300,000 will be used for its marketing and accreditation program.

The group plans to set up a new women's clinic in Johor, and acquire SSH Care Sdn Bhd, which has a women's clinic in Melaka, to be upgraded to a reproductive medicine ambulatory care centre.

"With the Melaka new facility, we expect to increase our capacity by about 300 cycles, from our current combined capacity of 1,000 cycles for two of our in-vitro fertilisation centres in Klang and Puchong," Lim said.

At present, Metro Healthcare has three hospitals, three ambulatory care centres and four clinics. The group boasts a total of 600 patients with completed cycles as at last year.

Kronologi Asia eyes double-digit revenue growth in FY18 as integration with Quantum HK gains momentum

Billy Toh / theedgemarkets.com
February 26, 2018 16:49 pm +08

KUALA LUMPUR (Feb 26): Kronologi Asia Bhd expects to see double-digit revenue growth in the financial year ending Dec 31, 2018 (FY18) as its Hong Kong-based subsidiary will start making a full-year contribution following the completion of its acquisition at the end of last year.

"All things remaining status quo, with Quantum Storage (Hong Kong) Ltd (QHK) we (should see) a double-digit revenue growth for FY18," its executive director Tan Jeck Min told a media briefing to announce the group's fourth-quarter and FY17 results today.

Kronologi, which provides on-site and off-site enterprise data management (EDM) and data storage solutions to Asian businesses, completed its RM45 million acquisition of QHK on Dec 4, 2017, which saw it contributing to one month of its FY17 financial performance.

Its acting chief executive officer, Philip Teo, said the integration of QHK will gather momentum in FY18, with both its India-based subsidiary Quantum Storage (India) Pte Ltd (QSI) and QHK to reap the benefits of economies of scale with the group's presence in 10 locations across eight countries in South Asia.

On its strategy to drive growth, Teo said the group will look at a three-pronged strategy in FY18 following its acquisition spree seen in FY16 and FY17.

"The growth strategy in FY18 will centre around three things. One, we [are] going to expand within the region. The acquisition of Quantum India and Quantum HK is the start of that. Right now, the focus is really on building on that — the integration of that.

"We will also develop the transnational backup for the EDM managed services. The transnational infrastructure gives our customers an option to pick another location outside of the country for backup," Teo said.

He added that the third pillar was to increase the emphasis of the EDM managed services, which provide a higher margin for the group.

"We set out a goal for ourselves, to double the growth of the EDM managed services earnings in the medium term (three years)," Teo said.

Earlier today, Kronologi announced its 4QFY17 results which saw its net profit rise by a third to RM3.44 million from RM2.59 million a year ago, attributable to better results in Southeast Asia and the completion of the acquisition of QHK.

According to Teo, QHK has fulfilled its profit guarantee for FY17 in the one-month contribution to the group.

The better profit results were in line with the growth of 56.7% in its quarterly revenue to RM42.7 million in 4QFY17 from RM27.3 million recorded in 4QFY16.

For the full FY17, Kronologi saw its net profit rise 68.5% to RM12.1 million from RM7.16 million in FY16, propelled by full-year contribution from QSI. Revenue for FY17 also surged 77.6% to RM144.4 million from RM81.3 in FY16.

As of Dec 31, 2017, Kronologi's cash and bank balances increased to RM35.1 million from RM8.3 million a year ago. On the back of a stronger financial result and stronger cash pile, the group said it remains focused on driving growth, highlighting a potential investment of about RM3 to RM5 million for infrastructure investment in the region, including in Malaysia.

The group's development on artificial intelligence solutions for its customers remains on track and is expected to be implemented sometime in 2018, said Teo, noting that market acceptance, however, is a key challenge as the solutions are not as broad as anticipated.

At 4.16pm, Kronologi shares were up 5 sen or 6.62% at 80.5 sen, with 12.63 million shares done, bringing a market capitalisation of RM249.27 million.

Construction segment lifts Kerjaya Prospek's 4Q net profit by 9%

Sangeetha Amarthalingam / theedgemarkets.com
February 26, 2018 17:13 pm +08

KUALA LUMPUR (Feb 26): Property developer and contractor Kerjaya Prospek Group Bhd's net profit rose 9.4% to RM28.31 million in the fourth quarter ended Dec 31, 2017 (4QFY17) from RM25.87 million a year ago, driven by strong contributions from various ongoing projects in its construction division.

This resulted in a higher earnings per share of 5.56 sen in 4QFY17, compared with 5.09 sen in 4QFY16. Quarterly revenue also grew 10.4% to RM252.66 million, from RM228.82 million in 4QFY16.

The improved quarterly results lifted its full year FY17 net profit to RM124.47 million, up 24.9% from RM99.62 million the previous year, while revenue increased 19.7% to RM956.02 million in FY17, from RM798.69 million in FY16.

In a statement today, Kerjaya said the construction division recorded a net profit of RM117.2 million on revenue of RM874.6 million in FY17, as construction schedules for ongoing projects intensified. The property development and manufacturing divisions contributed the balance of the top-line and segmental net profit.

"The group’s balance sheet remained robust with a net cash position of RM185.4 million and a current ratio of 2.1 times. The group’s current outstanding orderbook stands at RM3 billion, as total contract wins in FY17 totalled RM1.4 billion," the filing added.

Moving forward, Kerjaya said the market would be challenging but sustainable. "Barring any unforeseen circumstances, the group is cautiously optimistic on its overall businesses and will continue to sharpen its competitive edge to achieve sustainable growth in the market."

The group sees the construction segment continuing as its main revenue driver.

"The group continues to pursue both high rise and landed development projects from domestic markets. In addition, the group's maiden project, Vista Residences, has also recorded an encouraging take-up rate with its current unbilled sales of approximately RM71 million," Kerjaya said.

At 4.41pm, Kerjaya shares were down 2 sen or 1.14% at RM1.74, with 3.21 shares done, bringing a market capitalisation of RM2.15 billion.

Monday, February 26, 2018

李順威:股市未必再試低位

https://www.mpfinance.com/fin/columnist2.php?col=1463481126669&node=1519586968314&issue=20180226

文章日期:2018年2月26日




【明報專訊】筆者2月10日讀者會通訊分析:「現在形勢有點像1987年股災,當年10月大跌之後,全年仍然上升,之後也是持續向上。故事會否重演呢?」有會友問今次又會否出現雙底。我認為不同之處是1987年一日之內急跌25% ,這次跌幅是在6天之內完成,因此未必需要再試低位。

一般說法指今次跌市是債券息率上升使股市下跌。這個說法有一定道理,但不能單用這個角度分析,因為2月15日美國10年債券息率升上2.9厘,但股市繼續上升。同時日本央行入市干預,使日本債券息率升幅局限在於0.11厘之下。日本債券息率並沒有怎樣上升,但也不能阻止日本股市下跌,因此債券和股市的關係並不是那麼明確。實際上股市和債券的正數關係以往也是有時出現有時失效。

2月跌市 天量抽資造成

整體而言,我認為今次跌市關鍵是波幅交易出事引發盤路調整,大量資金從資產市場突然急速抽離引發的斬倉,相信是造成急劇跌市的主因。中國收緊信貸和要求進行海外收購業務的企業收回資金很有可能是市場波動的一個重要資金因素。海航和安邦等的影響值得研究。

在2月10日讀者會研討會,我說這次因為波幅交易出事而引發的沽售,大部分跌幅應該已經完成。我的估計是股市在2月9日破底然後即日反轉應該清洗了很多沽售壓力。同時市場已經表現了一定的恐慌。截至2月14日一周,美國股票基金共有230億美元流出,使一月份4個星期流入的430億美元流出近一半。標普500交易所掛牌基金SPY上周有236億美元流出,流出量等於基金資產總值8%,是2010年8月以來從未出現的流失率。接近極度恐慌可以說是一個形容詞。

波幅破30% 美股其後1年多升

上兩周市場出事的另一個原因是沽空波幅指數需要平倉拆倉斬倉,但在上周波幅指數翻轉過來出現了破紀錄的長倉,所以現在最痛苦的交易就是股票大反彈。更有趣的是,以往歷史是當波幅上升超過30%,美國和日本股票跟着的一年都會上升。

摩根大通量化及衍生工具主管Marko Kolanovic於兩個星期前,當美國標普500進入調整的時候,正正在2月8日建議客戶乘低買入,結果一矢中的。現在他認為股市仍可以反彈。原因是對冲基金在跌市時候急速減持,因此股票的啤打由接近紀錄高位跌至近紀錄低位。這個轉變在前周才開始,因此他們有很多增持股票的空間。根據摩根大通的模式,波幅目標策略可能現在開始慢慢重建股票組合。而且本周是月結,環球股市比1月底下跌了近5%,因此資產調整需要買入可觀的股票以平衡股票債券組合。此外,撇開盤路部署和資金流向,Kolanovic認為對通脹的擔心是過慮的,現時大量國庫債券空倉,使空倉有被挾倉風險。

債息超越6厘前 股市仍有肉食

至於債息上升的影響,美銀美林證券策略師Savita Subramanian研究指出,自從1953年以來,當債券息率在2厘至3厘之間上升,標普500平均每月升幅是1.9%;但當債券息率由3厘至4厘間上升,標普500平均每月升幅會下降至1.2%,但好友會認為這仍是一個很好的回報。平均股市表現會一直維持正數直至到息率超過6厘。

日本股市今次跌幅不小,在2月12日和13日,當其他股市回升的時候,日本股市仍然疲弱,原因之一是日圓上升。但我在2月14日讀者會談室指出當日的走勢很像投降式沽售,結果這天正是日本股市月來低位。

這次跌市,我低估了相關系數的上升。相關系數上升是我最失算的地方,不過在大跌市之中仍然有強弱之分。強勢科技股和工業周期股例如國防、航空製造、軟件股表現仍然是相對強勢的。此外,世界主要市場的細價股表現都較大價股指數好,反映沽售仍然是以指數為主。細價股波幅便比標普500為低。要留意的是今次跌市之中,動力科技股跌市之間反而成為避難的地方,相對表現更較佳,所以不要弄錯今次跌市的性質。

shunwailee@hotmail.com

[李順威 牛熊共舞]

潘迪藍:債市為股市提供安全網

https://www.mpfinance.com/fin/columnist2.php?col=1463481136965&node=1519586966816&issue=20180226
文章日期:2018年2月26日


【明報專訊】近日美股被拋售,反映了投資者對於美國通脹、經濟過熱和預算赤字的憂慮。這些憂慮並非沒有根據。美國經濟的長期前景有相當高的機會面對高通脹,這是由多個因素造成,包括:在不適當的時間減稅、政府開支急增,以及過於溫和的聯儲局要再等兩年或以上,才會將貨幣政策完全轉向積極反通脹的模式。

不過,對於資產配置來說,通脹或經濟前景如何並不太重要;重要的是,大多數投資者和聯儲局是否認同這些觀點。

即使在聯儲局發表最新的會議記錄之後,美國國庫債券的孳息率在上周四進一步上升,10年期美國國庫債券的孳息率上升至2.95厘,乃2014年初以來的最高水平;30年期美國國庫債券的孳息率上升至3.22厘,乃2015年中以來的最高水平,上述問題的答案依然明顯是否定的。

通脹經濟增長仍屬溫和

投資者對於美國通脹和經濟增長的隱憂,仍然十分鬆懈,是因為以歷史標準來說,現時的數據仍然屬於非常溫和。畢竟,美國國庫債券孳息率在3厘至3.25厘的範圍內,與美國GDP的名義增長率由過去10年的平均數2.9%,上升至大多數經濟預測所指的4.5%以上,仍然有一定距離,更不用說特朗普政府的財政計劃所需要的5%至6%增長。

在未來,美國國庫債券孳息率與GDP名義增長率之間的差距遲早會縮小。這不是因為孳息率急劇上升,就是因為GDP增長率遠遠低於預期。但是,在未來1年左右,這兩種情形出現的機會仍然很低。

不論是美國還是其他地區,GDP增長在未來一年都不大可能放緩。反而,考慮到美國的大規模財政刺激政策,以及歐洲撤回緊縮政策,全球各地區的財政政策仍然十分寬鬆,消費者和商業信心持續高企,GDP增長加速還有一些可能(除了中國大陸可能例外)。

那麼債券孳息率又如何?如果經濟持續增長,債券孳息率會否上升至GDP名義增長率的4%甚至5%的新標準?

至少在未來一年左右,出現這種情形的可能性都很低。原因主要有三個。

首先,自從10年前爆發金融海嘯之後,通縮和滯脹的想法就變得深入民心、根深柢固,這需要很多個月甚至很多年的連貫一致和不容置疑的證據,才能說服投資者和各國央行,長期的較高增長及/或通脹是有可能的。

其次,各國對銀行和退休基金的監管,日本和歐洲的量化寬鬆政策以及金融抑制(Financial Repression)(指政府採取的手段,可以令利率、匯率等出現扭曲),將會確保政府債券持續有需求,而且其價格遠高於任何合理的基本價值估計。債券價格高,孳息率就自然較低。

第三,即使投資者開始接受債券孳息率較高的事實,例如10年期美國國庫債券的孳息率上升至3厘,或者30年期美國國庫債券的孳息率上升至3.5厘等心理關口,他們的經驗和直覺也會迫使他們「逢低必買」(buy on dips)。畢竟,在過去30多年,債券投資者已經被教育至相信美國股市每次大跌,都應該買入債券。

債券「逢低必買」似條件反射

今時今日,幾乎沒有一個活着的投資者是透過持續做空債券來賺錢的。這意味着,債券投資者存在一種「逢低必買」的條件反射作用。這種想法需要很多個月甚至很多年才能打破。

每當股票價格突然大跌時,這種反射作用就會變得更加不可抗拒,因為在股票被拋售時買入債券這種做法在以往30多年都行之有效。這意味着,債券市場將繼續為股市崩盤提供安全網。

到了某個程度,美國股市的安全網將會失效,因為3厘至3.5厘的債券孳息率遠低於反映美國通脹、經濟增長和財政擴張前景的水平。但只要債券投資者繼續「逢低買入」的做法,並容許經濟增長強勁和債券孳息率低企的組合持續,美國股市的投資狀况應該可以維持樂觀。

美股市况應可維持樂觀

至於新興經濟體和歐洲的股市,由於估值相對溫和,這效應就更加有效。在新興經濟體和歐洲,企業盈利的周期增長是最近才開始,即使像美國現時那種溫和貨幣緊縮政策,也可能要幾年後才會出現。

GaveKal Dragonomics資深經濟師

[潘迪藍 國際視野]

The big-cap rally

Billy Toh / The Edge Financial Daily
February 26, 2018 08:49 am +08

This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on February 26, 2018.


KUALA LUMPUR: The heavyweight blue chips seem to have kick-started the next leg of the rally on the local stock market. And the mid- and small-cap counters are likely to join the party later to continue sustaining the momentum, barring any unforeseen circumstances.

A third of the FBM KLCI stocks are currently trading at or near their record highs. This month alone, more than 20% of the benchmark index’s 30 counters hit all-time highs when the market resumed its strong run-up following a correction at the beginning of the month due to the sharp drop on Wall Street.

Across the board on Bursa Malaysia, 49 companies were trading at or near their all-time highs last Friday, and 36 of them have a market capitalisation of RM1 billion and above.

Malayan Banking Bhd, the largest by market capitalisation, touched its all-time high of RM10.26 that day, while Nestle (M) Bhd, the most expensive stock on the exchange in terms of absolute price, hit a fresh high of RM123. Public Bank Bhd, whose market capitalisation is the third largest on Bursa, also climbed to all-time high of RM22.80. PPB Group Bhd touched a new high of RM17.76 last Wednesday, before pulling back slightly to RM17.68 last Friday. Likewise, Hong Leong Financial Group Bhd and Hong Leong Bank Bhd were both trading at their all-time highs at the beginning of the month.

The 3.6% gain on the FBM KLCI so far this year is the strongest for the January to February period since 2007 — the year before the onset of the global financial crisis — when it recorded a 9.1% gain. The gain could have been sharper if not for the correction caused by the big drop on Wall Street early in the month. In January, the index had gone up 3.99%, its eighth-highest monthly increase in the last 10 years.

The upward trend on Bursa is not just among the component stocks of the FBM KLCI. A quick look at the 182 listed companies with a market capitalisation of more than RM1 billion showed that more than a fifth of them — 41 companies — touched their all-time highs as recently as this year. They included Dutch Lady Milk Industries Bhd, Top Glove Corp Bhd, Bursa Malaysia Bhd, Heineken Malaysia Bhd, Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Bhd, AirAsia Bhd and George Kent (M) Bhd.

Areca Capital Sdn Bhd chief executive officer Danny Wong told The Edge Financial Daily that the gains among the big-cap stocks is a normal phenomenon. A rally in the equity market is usually led by the big-caps, followed by the small- and mid-caps eventually, according to him. “The initial stage of the rally will be led by the big-caps mainly because the [local] institutional investors and foreign funds come into the market. The rotation among the small-caps will follow suit as more positive news flow emerges,” Wong said. He noticed that investors’ risk appetite has returned after the selldown at the start of the month.

The rally isn’t only on Bursa as markets elsewhere also headed up. Singapore’s Straits Time Index has gone up 3.83% year to date (YTD) to 3,533.22, which is not that far from its highest peak of 3,831.19 achieved in 2007. The Jakarta Composite Index has also gained 4.2% YTD to 6,619.804 after hitting its all-time high of 6,689.287 two weeks ago. In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average also resumed its upswing to reach 24,962.48 after a correction in early February upon hitting an all-time high of 26,616.71.



Small-cap stocks to catch up

In contrast, the FBM Small Cap Index dip by 0.13% YTD, reflecting the lack of interest in small-cap counters. But these stocks are expected to take the center stage later should the positive sentiment prevail.

Vincent Lau, Rakuten Trade Sdn Bhd vice-president of research, said that a rotation into the bigger-cap players was seen at the beginning of this year, as reflected by the five-week correction seen among the small-cap players since Jan 9. “With the foreign investors buying in, the (FBM) KLCI has been on a strong uptrend. The smaller-cap has seen some corrections, probably after the run-up seen in the last two to three years. But with the bullish sentiment expected to continue ahead of the upcoming 14th general election (GE14) as well as the better earnings results, it is likely for the small-cap players to catch up,” Lau said. He noted that the big-cap stocks have done well but reckoned that there are buckets of opportunities in the small-cap space, which has largely been ignored by the foreign funds so far.

Meanwhile, based on the readings of the technical charts, RHB Retail Research commented last week that the bullish indicator had emerged suggesting that the FBM Small Cap Index will see more upside movements.

Areca Capital’s Wong concurs that small- and mid-cap players will catch up with the bigger-cap players as the positive sentiment continues. “The small- and mid-cap companies usually react more quickly to the positive news flow and development than the bigger-cap players,” he noted.

Is the market too far ahead of fundamentals?

With the benchmark index not too far from its historical highest point and the big-cap stocks at record highs, it has prompted the investing fraternity to ponder whether the local market has reached its peak? Should investors jump on board before the bullet train embarks on the next leg of the rally? The fear of missing out is rising as the index heads further north. A look at the stock market valuation shows that the FBM KLCI is trading at a trailing price-earnings ratio of 17 times, which is in line with its five-year average although it is slightly higher than its 10-year average of 16.6 times. The FBM Emas Index, comprising large- and mid-cap constituents of the FBM 100 Index and FBM Small Cap Index, however was trading at a trailing PER of 18.6 times, which is higher than its five-year and 10-year average of 17.5 times and 16.2 times respectively.

Wong pointed that the benchmark index does not look cheap now with high expectations of a stronger earnings to be seen for the upcoming results reporting season for the fourth quarter ended Dec 31, 2017 (4Q17), considering the robust economic growth in 2017. “It’s [valuation] not cheap but if the earnings in 4Q17 (fourth quarter 2017) and 1Q18 met expectations, it will be supportive of the market ... If not, then it’ll be difficult for the momentum to continue given the [rather high] valuation of the (FBM) KLCI at the moment,” Wong commented.

Wong pointed that most of the banking companies have yet to announce their results except for Public Bank, which has edged slightly higher, and with banks’ dominance in the FBM KLCI, it will be crucial for the results of the banking sector to perform to maintain the rally seen in the index. He noted that plantations have done relatively well and some of the blue-chip consumer stocks have seen a surge in earnings.

Apart from the upcoming GE14 and external risks, analysts opine that corporate earnings are the one factor that will dictate the market direction given that the market have priced in quite decent growth.

Sunday, February 25, 2018

[转贴] 现在入市等同自杀/张仰荣博士


Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Sun, 25 Feb 2018, 02:19 PM
2018年2月24日


屋理絮闹●张仰荣博士

根据我观察的多个因素,得出大马产业市场现在面临危机,很快就会在今年内崩盘的结论。

这期我将与读者分享,如果无法负担房贷怎么办?要如何避免成为产业市场崩盘的受害者?

“高档产业价格陷入谷底”。这是本月12日《马来邮报》网站一则新闻的标题。该新闻引述Rahim & Co国际私人有限公司执行主席丹斯里阿都拉欣的话,指吉隆坡城中城(KLCC)一带的高档产业价格不再以每平方尺2500令吉的高价交易。

目前是以每平方尺1800令吉的低价交易,从顶峰每平方尺2500令吉,下跌了700令吉或28%,潜在购屋者不会以高过每平方尺1800令吉的价格购买高档产业。

我认为吉隆坡城中城地带高档产业价格陷入谷底,是大马产业市场无法避免的崩盘开始。就像一部汽车走下坡路,高档产业的下滑也只是开始,还没有到达下坡的三分之一。

趁早退场偿贷款

一旦到了三分之一,我们就会看到价格介于50万至100万令吉的产业,开始下跌并有可能跌入谷底,即89%每月收入仅5000令吉或以下的大马人有能力购买。

如果1997/1998年的情况重演,你现在购买的产业价格会大幅下跌,屋价就会损失50%。

如果您现有的房贷已无法持续,且对于未来又不明朗,要趁早退场,以最好的价格把房子卖掉并偿还银行贷款。

如果卖掉产业后的钱还是不足以还清银行贷款,须与银行洽商,比如把剩下的欠款换成个人贷款以10年还清,或者是以银行达成的还款期限协议。

情况1:10年后

在2024年,黄先生买了他的单位10年后,与陈先生依然是邻居,2家人都享受同样的生活素质。

惟黄先生购屋10年后,共支付了113万640令吉给银行(8172令吉 x 120期,加上首期15万令吉),这等于隔壁家陈先生10年总共支付租金30万9600令吉(2400令吉 x 120月)的3.65倍。



情况2:10年后,黄先生卖屋

假设在2024年,黄先生的财务陷入困境,无法承担每月8172令吉房贷,银行以100万令吉的价位拍卖了他的屋子。

届时,135万令吉的贷款中,黄先生仍欠银行117万9360令吉,屋子以100万令吉拍卖后,他最后还欠银行17万9360令吉。

这时,陈先生和黄先生都不拥有房屋。但两人的房屋消费,分别为陈先生的30万9600令吉以及黄先生的113万640令吉。



两人不再是邻居,陈先生虽然付了30万9600令吉给屋主,但他毫无欠款。

黄先生则一共支付了113万640令吉给银行(8172令吉 x 120期,加上首期15万令吉),比隔壁家陈先生10年总共支付租金30万9600令吉(2400令吉 x 120月)的3.65倍。

而且黄先生的房子被拍卖了,必须搬离,还欠银行17万9360令吉。他的房子被拍卖后,可能还要搬到更便宜的社区,租比较便宜的房子,降低生活水准。

情况3:30年后(2044年)

2044年,陈先生和黄先生依然是邻居,陈先生仍然租着同一房子,黄先生仍拥有同一房子,2家人的生活水准无异。

但作为屋主,黄先生一共支付了309万1920令吉,等于陈先生租金118万8000令吉的2.6倍。




情况4:30年后,黄先生拥价值1000万令吉排屋

2044年,陈先生和黄先生依然是邻居。

若到2044年,黄先生有能力还清为期30年、每月8172令吉的房贷。

他将拥有敦伊斯迈花园内,市值为1000万令吉的双城排屋。

http://www.enanyang.my/news/20180224/现在入市等同自杀张仰荣博士/

16歲到美國時一點英語都不會,做過清潔工、洗衣工幫補家用,33歲成為全球最頂尖的AI專家之一!

每年,頂級學府史丹佛大學都會舉辦一個科技比賽,叫做「ImageNet視覺識別挑戰」。要知道來參加比賽的可不是學生團隊,而是全球的科技巨頭公司。谷歌、微軟、百度每年都會來這個比賽報到,展示近年來在人工智能方面的科技成果。

而很多人都不會想到,這個在人工智能頂端的 ImageNet,背後的「終極考官」竟然是個大美女!還是個華人美女!

她就是世界人工智能頂級科學家,史丹佛的人工智能實驗室負責人,李飛飛。



Photo From Internet
史丹佛最年輕的教授

做為全球十大頂級科學家之一,李飛飛是人工智能界無人不知的名字。

年僅 33 歲,她便成為了史丹佛大學的終身教授,不僅是史丹佛 AI 實驗室唯一的女性,也是電腦科學系最年輕的教授。在一流期刊上發表合計超過 100 篇學術論文。

她最大的貢獻,是主導的圖形識別項目,每年吸引著包括 Google、Facebook、Amazon 等科技巨頭在內的上百家頂尖機構,共同向前推進機器智能的邊界。

然而,你絕對想不到:看似一路開掛的美女學霸背後,清潔工、中餐館收銀員、幫人遛狗、洗衣妹,都是她曾經的身份。



Photo From Internet
在美國不會英語,每天睡4小時,拿到一流大學全額獎學金

16歲,李飛飛和父母來到美國。雖說李飛飛的父母都是知識分子,但他們不會說英文,生活過的很清貧。李飛飛的父親只能做相機修理工作,母親去做收銀員。

「我們沒有錢,為了學業我做了各種各樣的工作。」在接受採訪時,李飛飛回憶過。李飛飛從頭開始學英語,在新澤西州的一所中等高中讀書。因為要支撐家裡的各項支出,她的大部分時間還要在中國餐館和洗衣房裡度過。

即使這樣,李飛飛以第 6 名的成績高中畢業。在一堆大學中,她選擇了能為她提供全額獎學金的普林斯頓大學,因為成績太好,還上了美國當地的報紙。

上大學後,李飛飛仍舊掛念家裡的生活。借錢為父母買下一家乾洗店,一邊讀書一邊幫家裡打理洗衣店的生意。



Photo From Internet
放棄華爾街高薪工作,3年成為史丹佛終身教授

李飛飛本科畢業時,來自華爾街很多投資銀行和管理諮詢公司都邀請他去,麥肯錫都給她發了offer,她卻都拒絕了。

「我的夢想是去讀一個博士,儘管在這期間我一分錢也掙不到。探尋知識和真理是流淌在我的血液裡的基因。我希望可以了解全宇宙、可以成為一個富有理性思維的人。」

在父母的支持下,這位神奇的女子在西藏研究了一年的藏醫後,在加州理工學院,攻讀碩博士學位,研究方向是非常冷門的人工智能和計算神經科學。

讀研讀得相當辛苦,項目太前衛,研究成果太少,而且還缺錢,甚至一度從洗衣店裡貼補項目。那個時候母親還中風,並且患上了癌症,科研壓力加生活的重擔壓得人喘不過氣。

「如果再來一次,我不認為我還能挺得過來。」李飛飛說。還好,她的智慧篤定和不忘初心成就了她的今天。被問到「什麼曾是你經歷過的最大的挑戰?」,李飛飛卻不提以前的逆境,而是強調這麼多年來一直堅持自己的選擇。她說:

「如果我老是在感嘆為什麼會有那麼多的困難,對我來說,是一件很分散注意力的事情。真正的挑戰是,你需要充分發揮自己的潛力,同時兼顧自己所身負的責任,然後又必須忠於自己的內心。」



Photo From Internet
人工智能現在越火,越要冷靜做研究

回溯過去,李飛飛在電腦科學視覺上的研究已經花費了 15 年。在 2007 年,李飛飛和一位同事著手開始一項龐大的任務,為來自互聯網的 10 億張圖片進行分類、打標籤,從而為計算機提供樣本。

他們使用亞馬遜「Mechanical Turk」這樣的眾包平台,邀請了來自 167 個國家的5萬人幫助為其中的數百萬張圖像打標籤。最終,他們建立了「ImageNet數據集」。今天,這個數據集包含了使用日常英語標記的超過 1400 萬張圖像,跨越 21800 個類別。更可敬的是,李飛飛沒有獨享珍貴的研究成果,而是將 ImageNet 數據庫開源,供學術和商業界的每一個實驗室調取。

去年 11 月她加入谷歌,成為雲端人工智慧部門的負責人之一。正如她所期望的,她的研究最終能為工業界所用。

她並沒有離開史丹佛,只是利用兩年學術假去 Google 繼續搞研究。



Photo From Internet

如今,機器學習已經是熱門概念。可在 2007 年,李飛飛的實驗室缺少人手,又申請不到經費。最困難的時候,她一度想重開洗衣店,籌集實驗資金。

面對現在人工智能的大風口,李飛飛卻說:「我做研究的心得就是,眼睛看到的前方應該是比較空曠的。如果你眼睛看到的前方是熱鬧的,那這個方向就不是最好的研究方向。而空曠的地方一般都不是熱點,因此你必須找准自己的焦點。」

「人工智能現在越火,越希望冷靜做研究。」李飛飛總是這樣強調。

最後,李飛飛給博士生們寫的信,她這樣警醒她的學生:當你在機械地開展你們的工作前,請捫心自問:我的研究會重新定義這一領域的未來嗎?

而不是「這個方向沒有人寫過」或者「讓我來解決這個小問題,它的成果會很容易展示」;研究意味著「如果我做了,這一重大問題就有了更好的解決方案」、「如果我做了,我就真正開拓了這一領域」。

http://fortuneinsight.com/web/posts/6164

Friday, February 23, 2018

PART 2: BJLAND COULD BE DUE FOR A HUGH WINDFALL OF 2.02 BILLION IN 2018?

 From Sales & Compensation...OF PROJECTS IN VIETNAM, KOREA & CHINA & MALAYSIA!

Author: laulau | Publish date: Fri, 23 Feb 2018, 12:28 AM

BJLAND could be due for WINDFALL of RM2.02 BILLION in 2018? from SALES & COMPENSATION of PROJECTS IN VIETNAM, KOREA & CHINA & MALAYSIA!

Could this be the Answer to the Burning Question?

How Berjaya Group stored Wealth by Parking Value in BJLand from Prying Eyes?

BJLand current price is only 32 sens...while the implied price is 67 sens...a potential Return on Investment of 109%....or even 1,240% if history repeats itself?


Refer Part 1 Here:

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/laulauramblings/147946.jsp


Predicted 2018 Lowest/ Highest Share Price

2018 - Lowest 31.5 sens / Highest 67 sens or much

More???


See BJLand's 52 weeks Lowest & Highest 5 years share price trend from 2013 to 2017
2017 - Lowest 36 sens / Highest 66 sens [Profit for the year RM 411,221,000]
2016 - Lowest 56 sens / Highest 76 sens [Loss for the year RM (165,024,000)]
2015 - Lowest 63 sens / Highest 83 sens [Loss for the year RM (161,828,000)]
2014 - Lowest 75 sens / Highest 88 sens [Profit for the year RM 309,213,000]
2013 - Lowest 76 sens / Highest 93 sens [Profit for the year RM 296,775,000] 



By NST Business - January 22, 2018 @ 8:38pm

MARC affirm AAA rating on BLand - Noteholders are insulated from downside risks related to the credit profile of BJLand by Danajamin and OCBC Malaysia’s guarantees. MARC also noted that with the recent change in BJLand’s key management team, the group is expected to refocus its property development activities.

BJLand’s hotels and resorts operations have generally improved on the back of higher average room rates. Its hotels continue to benefit from the group’s long track record in domestic hotel operations and partnerships with large hotel chains on the international front. The group’s investments in hotel properties have also been a source of liquidity in the past.

https://www.nst.com.my/business/2018/01/327771/marc-affirm-aaa-rating-bland

What Other Investment Analysts Say About BJLand's Current Relative Valuation & Company Overview...

According to Capital Cube Analysis as of 1 Febuary 2018, BJLand

is Undervalued with a potential upside and Implied Price of RM0.71 with a

price variation of RM0.65~RM0.75
Earnings Momentum Score of 22.98 is Average compared to its Peer Median of 22.98
Dividend Quality Score of 83.00 is Above Average compared to its Peer Median of 75.00
Fundametal score of 46.00 is comparable to its Peer Median of 46.00










Summary Report on BJLand Sale/ Recovery of Money Due :
Total sum of windfall money due to BJLand in 2018 could reach RM65 + RM646 + RM598.97 + RM708 Million = 2,017.97 Million or RM2.02 Billion?

* Vietnam Long Beach Phu Quoc Resort Project Sale of RM65 million
* Berjaya Jeju Resort Project Compensation of RM646 million
* Great China Mall Sales Payment of RM598.97 million and,
* Ritz Carlton Residences, Kuala Lumpur Project Sales of 60% x 1.18 Billion = RM708 million

Not Including Property Sales in Malaysia Due in 2019
* Property Project Development in Bukit Jalil, Puchong and Georgetown (RM395.5 million)


1. Sale of Long Beach Phu Quoc Resort, Vietnam (RM65 million)



BJLand is currently disposing of its stake in Long Beach Phu Quoc Resort in Vietnam for RM65 million. Sale expected to take place in early 2018.

BLand still have a controlling interest in two large hotels in Vietnam after disposing of BLong Beach: the InterContinental Hanoi Westlake (75 per cent ownership) and the Sheraton Hanoi Hotel (70 per cent). According to BLand’s 2016 annual report, both saw increasing occupancy rates year-on-year, of 2.1 and 9.9 per cent, respectively, and increasing revenues.

BJLand also holds an 80 per cent interest in property developer Berjaya Handico 12 Co. Ltd., known for Hanoi Garden City, and a 75 per cent stake in Bien Hoa City Square in Dong Nai province. BJLand is also the 100 per cent owner of the Vietnam Financial Center and Vietnam International University Township in Ho Chi Minh City.with an estimated combined GDV of RM38 billion. These projects remain in the planning stage. http://vneconomictimes.com/article/business/berjaya-land-to-sell-stake-in-phu-quoc-resort


2. Berjaya Jeju Resort Project Compensation (RM646 million)



"Following the suspension of its RM1 billion residential development joint venture in Jeju, South Korea in 2015, the BJLand has partially recovered RM374.5 million from JDC (The Seoul Central District Court was accordingly informed of the abovementioned developments during the first court hearing of the JDC Lawsuit held on 7 March 2016 in 2016) with the remainder sum of RM646.0 million of its initial investment in the Jeju Island project (land appraisal report by court appointed valuer submitted to Korean court for consideration in December 2016) to be recovered through court proceedings by 2018? (within a 3 years period from first legal proceeding commenced on 6 November 2015).

In the meantime JDC has gone ahead with its Modified 2nd Comprehensive Plan for Jeju Free International City (dated Feb. 2017) without BJLand's original Jeju Island Development as the Jeju Land Project has been mutually terminated by BJLand & JDC in March 2016, with partial payment of RM374.5 million from JDC with the remainder sum of RM646.0 million of BJLand initial investment in the Jeju Island project to be recovered through court proceedings filed in Korea on 6 Nov. 2015). Subsequent to the earlier partial payment in early 2016 from JDC, the Korean court in Jeju has also cancelled Berjaya's Yerae Resort Construction permit issued by Jeju Province so the question of compensation to be awarded by the Korean Court is just a matter of time since the first filing of proceedings was on 6 November 2015...coming to year 3 already?

https://www.jeju.go.kr/group/part2/refer.htm;jsessionid=j4qc4qVK9qafqOBa6gSExMx0ezd2XMko6u7AaDlF63E2qIivMBT6j4GdbzxwFXui.was2_servlet_engine1?act=download&seq=1024889&no=2




3. China Great Mall Project (RM598.97 million)



China Great Mall Project Arbitration proceedings filed by BJLand on Jan.19, 2018 at Hong Kong International Centre for Arbitration (HKIAC) for repayment of RM598.97 million and other reliefs against Beijing SkyOcean & its Guarantors in Hong Kong. (Expected recovery of oustanding sum from Beijing SkyOcean through Arbitration Preceedings in Hong Kong will be very much faster (between 2018 to 2020) than the original anticipated period of 3 years for recovery through filing of proceedings against Beijing SkyOcean & its Guarantors at the Hong Kong Civil Courts of Law). http://www.hkiac.org/arbitration/what-is-arbitration


"KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 19): Berjaya Land Bhd's 51%-owned unit Berjaya (China) Great Mall Co Ltd (GMOC) today submitted a notice of arbitration against Beijing SkyOcean International Holdings Ltd to seek recovery of an outstanding payment of 974.07 million renminbi (RM598.97 million)." http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/berjaya-land-unit-submits-arbitration-notice-recover-sum-china-mall-sale

4. Ritz Carlton Residences Property Project Development in Kuala Lumpur (GDV RM1.18 Billion x 60% Sales = RM708 million)



We think the profit from sales of Ritz Carlton Residences will be reflected in BJLand/ BJCorp coming quarter result as according to Focus Megazine, Ritz Carlton Residences was only handed over to buyers on Dec 08 last year and so the sales figures and profits will only be shown in the coming quarterly result ended February 2018.

The total gross development value (GDV) is RM1.18 billion. Already 60% sold in Dec. 2017?

Quote "Berjaya Land reintroduces newly designed Ritz-Carlton Residences Kuala Lumpur - Berjaya Land Bhd has reintroduced its Ritz-Carlton Residences Kuala Lumpur, located at the intersection of Jalan Sultan Ismail and Jalan Ampang, with new interior design concepts. The luxury residences are designed by world-renowned, multi-award winning interior design firm Peter Silling & Associates.

“Buyers can now choose from three interior design concepts — Modern, Classic and Finesse — to match their own individual styles," said Berjaya Land CEO and director of Wangsa Tegap Sdn Bhd Datuk Francis Ng in his welcoming remarks at the media preview of the newly designed project.

The 48-storey project offering residential suites is developed by Wangsa Tegap, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Berjaya Corp Bhd. The total gross development value (GDV) is RM1.18 billion.

Sitting on a 2.7-acre freehold site and one of the two towers at Berjaya Central Park, the Ritz-Carlton Residences consists of 288 suites with unit sizes ranging from 1,023 sq ft to 4,284 sq ft. Prices start from RM2,500 psf while the maintenance fee is RM1 psf.

“Also, the tenant ratio is 50% foreigners and 50% locals. This development is targeted at high-net-worth individuals where 30% of our buyers are actually multimillionaires,” he claimed."



5. Property Project Development in Bukit Jalil, Puchong and Georgetown (RM395.5 million)



"Over the near term, its property projects remain limited to ongoing developments in Bukit Jalil and Puchong in the Klang Valley as well as Georgetown in Pulau Pinang. “These projects have a modest combined contracted sales value of RM395.5 million and are expected to be completed by 2019," MARC noted.


BJ Corp's core asset is >75% (now 78.8%) equity interest in BJ Land. Please refer to diagram below for details of BJLand 's implied market value.








Refer Part 1 Here:

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/laulauramblings/147946.jsp


Disclaimer: This is not a call to buy, always do your own research before investing in any stocks...

Sincerely Yours,




laulau :)

Lii Hen Industries - FY17 Results – Within Expectation

Author:   |    Publish date: 


Results

  • Within expectation. FY17 core net profit of RM77.7m (+2.7%) came in within expectation, accounting for 97% of our forecast.

Deviations

  • Broadly in line

Dividend

  • Declared special interim divided of 8sen per share (ex-date: 9 Mar 2018) bringing YTD DPS to 20sen, expecting another final dividend of 4sen. Full year DPS of 24sen translates to a dividend yield of 7.5%.

Highlights

  • QoQ : Despite the stronger MYR against US$ (4Q17: RM4.15/US$; 3Q17: RM4.25/US$), 4Q17 revenue only dropped by 2.7% as there was an increase in sales volume during the quarter. Core net profit fell by 22.8% to RM15.4m mainly attributable to higher operating cost (higher sub contractor charges and staff annual bonus).
  • YoY : 4Q17 revenue rose by 9.7% to RM184.9m, but core net profit declined by 24.5% as higher sales volume was weighed down by the stronger MYR against the US$ (4Q17: RM4.15/US$; 4Q16: RM4.32/US$).
  • YTD : FY17 core earnings rose 2.7% to RM77.7m, due to the increased sales volume in existing and new products (upholstery sofa).
  • While labour shortage and rising raw material will remain an issue to manufacturing players including Lii Hen, we are confident that Lii Hen would be able to pull through with management’s relentless efforts in adopting effective cost management.
  • Outlook: We remain positive on Lii Hen’s earnings outlook, as the group continuously focuses on i) diversifying its product range to strengthen its market position, ii) adopting effective cost management and iii) looking for automation opportunities for its production lines.

Risks

  • (1) Escalating raw material price (2) High dependency on foreign workers; and (3) Stronger-than-expected MYR (against the US$).

Forecasts

  • We cut our FY18-FY19 net profit by 2.2% to RM75.2m and RM76.3m respectively to account for a higher operating cost.

Rating

BUY (  )
  • We continue to like Lii Hen due to its strong balance sheet (net cash per share 29.6 sen as at 31 Dec 17), generous dividend payout (dividend yield of 7.5%) and ongoing efforts to adopt effective cost management. Moreover, we expect stable growth in the global furniture market due to growing real estate industry and increasing number of global retail stores.

Valuation

  • Reiterate BUY with a lower TP of RM4.18 based on 10x FY18 EPS of 41.8sen.
Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 23 Feb 2018

Apex Healthcare Berhad - Solid FY17

Author:   |    Publish date: 


Apex Healthcare Berhad (ApexH)’s FY17 net profit of RM44.5m (+27.2% YoY) came in slightly above expectations, at 106% of our and 111% of consensus full-year estimates. This was driven by better performance across its key business units, including a positive contribution from its associate company as opposed to a small loss reported in FY16. Earnings level were higher in all four quarters in comparison to FY16, with 4QFY17 net profit recording the highest jump by 89% YoY. A final dividend of 6.5 sen was declared, bringing YTD dividend to 12.0 sen, which was in line with our estimates. We keep our earnings estimates for now, pending further guidance from analyst briefing scheduled today, and maintain our Outperform call with an unchanged target price of RM5.92 premised on 15.3x multiple to FY18 EPS. We still favour ApexH for i) additional capacity from its new Oral Solid Dosage (SPP NOVO) manufacturing facility to be ready in 2018, ii) strong balance sheet with net cash position of 69.0sen/share, and iii) synergistic relationship with a number of multinational drug companies and wide distribution network for pharmaceuticals, over-the-counter and consumer products in Malaysia.
  • 4QFY17 revenue was stronger at RM152.6m (+5.9% YoY), which bumped up FY17 revenue to RM620.3m (+6.7% YoY). The group revenue growth was supported by increased contributions from pharmaceutical sales to the Government sector and contract manufacturing services. Segment-wise, Manufacturing and Marketing division rose by 19.9% YoY for FY17 while Wholesale and Distribution increased by 6.0% YoY. The improvements were also aided by scheduled new product launches resulting in better sales of Group-branded products to private sector. Share of results from its associate company Straits Apex was higher at RM5.4m (FY16: -RM0.2m) due to improved sales and larger proportion of high margin products in its sales mix. Going forward, we are conservatively looking at a 4-6% growth in FY18F-20F, on the back of trading strength and emphasis on R&D initiatives resulting in quality pharmaceutical product formulations. We also look forward to the new SPP NOVO coming on board in 1HFY18, which should provide ApexH with ample capacity to drive production growth in the years to come.
  • Margin improvements. For the full year, operating, pretax and net margins were better at 8.2%, 9.0% and 7.2% respectively (compared to 8.0%, 8.0% and 6.0% in FY16), in line with the overall betterment in both subsidiary and associate company’s contributions. We understand that ApexH is also focusing efforts into own-brand pharmaceuticals, which should progressively increase margin levels. We expect the positive performance to sustain in the coming quarters.
Source: PublicInvest Research - 23 Feb 2018

耗巨资提升机场.大马机场前景明朗

2018-02-22 17:16

(吉隆坡22日讯)尽管大马机场(AIRPORT,5014,主板贸服组)斥巨资提升首都两大机场,以应对新的服务架构,但分析员认为该公司国内外业务皆稳定增长,整体展望依然明朗。

虽然该公司2017财政年核心净利暴增超过10倍至1亿8000万令吉,却仅达到市场全年预测的68%,归因于土耳其业务的折旧开销高于预期。幸而董事部宣布派发每股8仙股息,全年达13仙,超过市场预期。

该公司管理层披露,在提高土耳其萨比哈格克琴机场(ISG)的资本开销后,该公司的经营权延长两年至2032年,如果进一步增加资本开销,经营权有望再延长两年。

拨7亿提升短程列车
行李运送系统和厕所

此外,航空委员会(MAVCOM)第三季将落实服务素质(QoS)架构,第一批名单包括吉隆坡国际机场(KLIA)和吉隆坡第二国际机场(KLIA2),若无法达标,最多可罚取5%航空收入,而大马机场为了加强服务,计划今年拨出6亿至7亿令吉提升短程列车、行李运送系统和厕所。

肯纳格研究表示,随着马印航空和马航减少国内航班,加上马币升值降低国内旅游竞争优势,相信国内机场客流量增长将减缓,预期增幅将从2017年的8.5%放缓到8%,而土耳其机场客流量则有望增长10%。

肯纳格认为,该公司2018财政年土耳其折旧开销将超过当初预测,预期由4亿6800万令吉涨至5亿2800万令吉,促使该行下调现财政年盈利预测21%。


该行将市账率预测从1.74倍降至1.72倍后,下修大马机场的目标价。

不过,该行认为,大马机场股价近期下跌后,上涨空间扩增,决定调高评级,从“落后大市”升至“符合大市”。

MIDF研究认为,国内机场的外国乘客比重从2016财政年的48.7%扩至2017财政年的51.2%,为了争取这些愿意花钱的乘客,相信大马机场将开发更多土地,以提升零售和租赁收入。

艾芬黄氏研究指出,大马机场将以2亿9500万令吉脱售印度机场的11%股权,纳进这笔资金后,决定上修2018财政年盈利预测66%,并在调整基础年份至2018年后,调高目标价。

今日闭市,大马机场跌13仙,收报8令吉76仙。



文章来源:星洲日报‧财经‧报道:王宝钦‧2018.02.22

亚通末季转盈赚2472万.拟售印度Idea潜在值39亿

2018-02-23 09:28

(吉隆坡22日讯)在天地通(Celcom)业务转亏为盈和XL转型计划奏效的带动下,亚通(AXIATA,6888,主板贸服组)截至2017年第四季转亏为盈,净利报2472万5000令吉,前期亏损3亿零949万6000令吉。

全年净利则从5亿零425万4000令吉增长80.36%,至9亿零948万令吉。第四季营业额起8.15%,至62亿6109万5000令吉,全年营业额起13.16%,至244亿零240万1000令吉。

派息3.5仙

亚通也宣布3.5仙股息再投资计划,除权日与享有日待定。

亚通总裁兼首席执行员丹斯里贾玛鲁丁在第四季业绩汇报会上表示,不排除脱售印度Idea公司股权予印度沃得风(Vodafone),潜在脱售额高达10亿美元(约39亿令吉)。

他说,Idea与沃得风正在洽谈合并事宜,该合并亦导致亚通需做出减值。

贾玛鲁丁强调,该减值只是依据会计准则,并不会对实际的现金流带来影响,只是一次性的调整而已。

询及是否会脱售Idea一事,贾玛鲁丁不排除脱售的可能性,并表示:“长远而言,亚通可能会撤离印度市场,这可能是一个月后的事,亦可能是5年后的事。”

贾玛鲁丁补充,亚通要成为策略性伙伴,但一山不能藏二虎。

Idea是印度第三大电讯公司,市值为60亿美元,亚通持有印度Idea16%股权,贾玛鲁丁补充,现阶段亚通拥有足够的现金,手握68亿令吉。

展望未来,贾玛鲁丁表示,未来2年将透过效率提升、电子化及数码网络措施,以达到成本撙节,期望可节约15亿令吉成本。

有关电讯塔业务——Edotco上市计划一事,他说,亚通虽有意将Edotco分拆上市,惟未设下任何期限。

“Edotco正在处理巴基斯坦Deodar电讯塔收购程序,预期可在今年第二季完成,并贡献亚通盈利。”

贾玛鲁丁补充,亚通现阶段是要打造全球最大的独立电讯塔公司。

市场传言,亚通有意与马电讯(TM,4863,主板贸服组)重启合并计划,贾玛鲁丁不排除,双方会以合作方式进行营运,但不会再度合并。

有关马币走强方面,贾玛鲁丁假设马币汇率为3令吉90仙,亚通来年期望营业额成长、营运盈利成长、有效资本报酬率(ROIC)及资本回酬率(ROCE)的目标分别为6.3%、5.8%、5%-5.5%及4.5%至5%。

文章来源:星洲日报/财经‧2018.02.23

2.5亿全购槟城CPI 柏朗桑进军电子制造服务

188点看 2018年2月14日

(吉隆坡14日讯)柏朗桑集团(KPS,5843,主板贸服股)进军电子制造服务新领域,以2亿5000万令吉收购CPI(槟城)私人有限公司的全数股权。

柏朗桑集团今日发文告指出,该公司签署有条件股权买卖协议,向HK Resources私人有限公司和TCS Resources私人有限公司收购CPI,料本季完成。

该收购价的企业价值对利息、税项、折旧及摊销前盈利比例达6.5倍,将完全以内部资金和向银行贷款支付。

保持高赚幅

柏朗桑集团总执行长阿莫法立说:“我们之所以看上CPI,是因为它专注在高精度和高价值的产品。”

他指出,CPI的业务策略一直保持创造较高赚幅,并且能够迎合多元化客户,更能抵御经济周期的波动。

目前,塑料注射成型业务,占CPI营业额较高份额,但柏朗桑集团预计,接下来机柜装配业务将发挥巨大潜力,更多贡献营业额。

完成收购后,该集团有意保留CPI的高管团队,包括总执行长。

CPI的客户来自全球90多家公司,包括汽车、医疗、电信以及工业和消费行业的市场领导者和跨国公司。

【独家】被誉东方巴菲特 谢清海自学成才香港成名

829点看 2018年2月23日
独家报道:谢梦苇

南洋富豪榜系列3



谢清海(左二)在2016年8月,获槟城元首封赐DGPN拿督斯里勋衔。他与母亲蔡亚金(中)接受亲友的祝贺,左起为邓国祥、谢清泉及谢瑞发。

谢清海这个名字,对大马人而言可能有点陌生,但在投资界,他被誉为“东方巴菲特”或“股坛金手指”。

虽然没有大学学位,但他自学成才,漂洋过海到香港,成立香港最大的资产管理品牌。

从记者到分析员、基金经理、企业家,拿督斯里谢清海不安于现状,积极踏出舒适区,勇于挑战自己。

自喻专业兵士有纪律

对于香港中文媒体为他冠上“东方巴菲特”和“股坛金手指”美称,他表示没有意见且没感觉,因为称号不属于他,他只是一名专业兵士,打着重要的战。

谢清海1月回马出席“2018年投资大马大会”时抽空接受《南洋商报》简短的访问。

“我是一名专业人士,是名非常有纪律的好兵士。在槟城长大时,努力工作和照顾本身的健康;现不断地研究,为客户提供良好专业的服务,并好好领导员工。”

谢清海1954年生于槟城,12岁丧父,中学毕业后在《星报》折报纸,后来成为记者。

根据蔡东豪撰写的《金钱之王——谢清海的价值人生》一书,谢清海20岁时,获得香港《虎报》的工作机会,就计划到香港赚几年钱,然后回马买屋给家人。

哪知道,他一去就是数十年,在“东方之珠”找到了自己的立足点。

他没有读过大学,中文和广东话更是“有限公司”,也可以在香港闯出一片天。

除了《虎报》,他曾在TVB新闻台、《华尔街日报》和《远东经济评论》担任记者及编辑。

在1989年,他加入摩根建富(Morgan Grenfell),结束17年的媒体人生涯。

1993年2月,他与叶维义共同创办惠理基金管理公司,2007年上市香港交易所,成为首家在香港上市的资产管理公司。

现在,他是惠理集团主席兼联席首席投资总监、香港金融发展局成员、以及香港交易所独立非执行董事。


《金钱之王——谢清海的价值人生》作者蔡东豪认为,未来20年,香港不需要多一个李嘉诚、李兆基,但需要很多个谢清海。

不一样的上市

一般上,企业上市的目的是筹资或提高知名度,但惠理集团的理由并非如此,且没有筹到1分钱。

根据蔡东豪,这得从1998年讲起。当年未上市的惠理集团脱售25%股权给J.H. Whitney私募基金公司。

在2006年,J.H. Whitney要求套现,且拒绝大股东谢清海和叶维义提出的估值,认为过低。

因此,该集团决定上市,让J.H. Whitney脱售股权,并让市场决定价值。

放眼成世界级资产管理公司

对于一般人,可以提早退休是件美事,但现年64岁谢清海似乎还未有这个打算。

惠理集团所管理的资产规模(AUM)从初期的560万美元,膨胀到去年杪的166亿美元。

他指出,旗下基金在单单1月已录得5%至10%盈利,目前肯定超过170亿美元。

他更放眼在3至6年内,将AUM翻倍,成为世界级的资产管理公司。

“我觉得这个办得到。中国拥有全球最大的储蓄库,而我们在进军这个市场方面,开始取得小成功。”

现有至少15决策者

惠理集团上海子公司于去年11月,获得中国私募证券投资基金管理人牌照,可以在中国推出惠理品牌在岸投资产品。

随着公司的规模扩大,谢清海开始卸下一些责任,以前只有他一人决定买卖股票,而现有至少15名决策者。

惠理集团2009年设立上海办事处,最近数年也在新加坡和伦敦设立办事处。
180223a05_noresize

【独家】电费便宜 容易窃电 想赚快钱 大马成比特币最佳淘金地

2820点看 2018年2月22日
独家报道:黎添华



挖矿十分耗电,使我国成为全球备受瞩目的淘金地。

(槟城22日讯)由于电费便宜、容易窃用、没有冬天,加上“赚快钱心态” 普遍等理由,大马成了全球比特币玩家的最佳“淘金”地。

据《南洋商报》探悉,随着比特币被指挖得所剩无几后,全球玩家都加紧步伐积极挖矿,其中不少海外玩家更转向电费相对廉宜的国家挖矿,而我国成了最佳淘金地之一,更是亚洲少有的淘金天堂。

我国的电费介于每千瓦时38.53仙,堪称区域内较低廉的收费率,不仅如此,我国也有电业基金来维持电费的水平。国能公司早前就表示,未来3年不会调涨电费,因此受到耗电量极大的比特币玩家们热捧。

讽刺的是,玩家们也透露,除了电费便宜外,我国的窃电风气也是吸引他们的原因之一。由于挖矿十分耗电,因此窃电自然能减低成本,玩家们不会去理会谁涉及违例窃电,因为后果一般自负,他们关心的是,能否在最快时间内获得回酬。

此外,我国没有冬天,所以不至于发生如中国、尼泊尔等冬天停电事故,这使整个挖矿过程更加顺利。

据了解,全球比特币在截至2017年为止的挖矿耗电量,已涨至20.5太瓦时,超过159个国家的年度耗电量。这也意味着,哪里的电费较廉宜,以及哪里的电流较不受断电影响,都将成为海外“矿家”们的热点。

其他备受玩家们热捧的淘金地,包括加拿大以及吉尔吉斯坦等。

每月可赚至少3万
矿主向我国玩家招手

玩家们也坦言,由于我国的金钱游戏风气十分盛行,不少国人都愿意为了赚快钱,而投入比特币挖矿作业上,所以矿主们都会向我国招收玩家,让他们为矿主们挖矿。

一名不愿具名的本地玩家表示,本身和朋友就参与协助外国集团一起挖矿,只要开着电脑或专用的挖矿机,就能将数据传至这些集团。

网速慢不成问题

值得一提的是,由于一些国家开始对比特币落实监管政策,因此,这些玩家才把目标转向海外,而我国对比特币暂无明确管制,加上国人爱赚快钱心态作祟,所以在在使我国成为海外矿主们的新目标。

询及我国的网速为何没令外国矿主却步,这名有超过一年挖矿经验的玩家表示,只要电费便宜和多人响应,网速再慢也不会成为问题。

该名拥有工程师正职的玩家坦言,本身每月赚取数千令吉比特币,而他的朋友则因拥有更多的挖矿机,所以每月赚取至少3万令吉不等。

另外,早前本报也报道,由于挖矿机已经可以在网上购买,加上价格多元,因此不少本地人都争相当“矿工”,大大增加了本地的挖矿市场的“人力市场”。

与金钱游戏无异
恐影响整体经济

我国成为海外矿主们热捧的淘金地点,这对本地经济不见得是好事。

由于挖矿过程中不涉及任何实质的产品或服务,只是开着电源就能进行,玩家们可以在毫无人力投入市场下就有望赚钱,所以不少人担心这就与金钱游戏无异,对整体经济不是件好事,尤其这直接影响了我国的生产力表现。

马来西亚理科大学经济系教授连惠慧曾在谈论金钱游戏时点出一个关键:当一项经济活动在社会中形成了不平衡的发展,那么经济体系自然出现影响。

她进一步解释,当这些赚快钱的运作成了一种全民运动,那么,工作的专注自然不再是重心,影响生产力是无可避免的。再来,由于社会闲钱多了,也会带来通货膨胀等经济情况。

连惠慧教授也表示,“一旦社会上的闲钱多了,在生产力不足、花费异常增加下,通货膨胀自然产生,届时,物价的高涨若到达无法控制的情况下,整体经济的失衡与崩溃,将使我们付出惨痛的代价。”


如今挖矿机可以网购且价格多元,不少本地人争相购机当“矿工”。

我国成为比特币矿家最佳海外淘金地原因:

●电费便宜

●国能曾指未来3 年不涨价

●不会有冬天断电之忧

●容易窃电

●国人爱赚快钱心理普遍,有金钱游戏“基因”

必买东盟股大马占4只 野村:联昌潜力傲视同业

2813点看 2018年2月22日

(吉隆坡22日讯)野村证券点名今年必买股,分别是联昌国际(CIMB,1023,主板金融股)、云顶马来西亚(GENM,4715,主板贸服股)、大马机场(AIRPORT,5014,主板贸服股)和睦兴旺(MUHIBAH,5703,主板建筑股)。

该券商分析员在一份东盟策略研究报告中,点出14只今年必须持有的东盟股票,大马占了其中4只。

野村证券大马研究主管图沙莫哈达指出,从投资回酬率(ROE)来看,联昌国际是唯一一个具备显著增长潜力的银行股。

“尽管将面对实施马财务报告准则9(MFRS9)后带来的影响,但我们预计,该股ROE将从2016年的8.2%,提高至2018年大约10%。”

这主要是因为信贷成本下降,促使净利复苏;降低成本措施,如证券联营计划,将对2018财年净利带来贡献,预计成本对收入比例,会降低至51.3%。

此外,在国内贷款及存款市场份额增加,回教银行分行具备竞争优势,该银行2014至2016财年贷款对存款率取得双位数增长。

随着银行领域基本面改善,野村证券看好联昌国际的估值将进一步升高。

他指出,整体领域的贷款增长极净利息赚幅,将会在今年趋稳,且投资者对MFRS9的担忧将会在2018年首季之后消失,让焦点重新放在核心业务及改善资产素质。



大马机场估值诱人

野村证券分析员乌斯曼指出,大马机场2018财年整体扣除利息、税务、折旧与摊销前盈利(EBITDA),预计将按年增长19.8%,归功于土耳其伊斯坦布尔撒比哈国际机场EBITDA增长28.3%。

虽然近期投资者关注在新的乘客服务费成本框架产生的不明朗因素,但分析员相信,这基本可让大马机场取得比加权平均资本成本更高的回酬率,包括资金回酬或股本回酬,这是过去4年未曾出现过的。

此外,该券商仍未纳入其他催化剂,如下半年更有利的特许经营权架构、通过联营合作加强与阿里巴巴独资子公司——菜鸟网络(Cainiao)的关系;脱售伊斯坦布尔撒比哈国际机场49%股权等。

同时,他认为,大马机场的估值仍相当诱人,因为比同行低28%。

云顶大马3年净利复增24%

云顶马来西亚的游客到访率及赌客人数持续推动增长,大部分近期季度业绩显示,游客到访率按年增加10%、贵宾赌客人数取得双位数增长,而大众赌客则增加单位数,这意味着新的赌场楼层,以及购物和餐饮景点,有助于推高需求。

“因此,我们预计,云顶马来西亚2017至2019财年净利年均复增(CAGR)达24%。”

此外,该集团在进行大规模扩增产能活动,将推动净利增长,并处于从区域旅游主题中受惠的最佳位置。

该券商也相信,美国的玛许比万帕诺亚格(Mashpee Wampanoag)部落的票据投资问题,将会在上半年解决,可能会导致集团面对大笔减值拨款,但皆属于非现金类别。

睦兴旺上涨空间46%

乌斯曼认为,睦兴旺在柬埔寨机场持有的21%股权的潜能仍被低估,因为2018财年企业价值对利息、税项、折旧及摊销前盈利比例(EV/EBITDA)估值预测仅达4.2倍,显著低于同行平均13至14倍。

由于游客人数增加,三间柬埔寨机场去年搭客流量增加23%,且将会在今年保持强劲,预计按年起19%。

在建筑业务方面,该公司去年订单合约增加15.7亿令吉,且预计赚幅扩大,因为近期取得赚幅较高的工程项目,以及油气起重机订单在油价回升后复苏。

该股目前在2018财年11.8倍本益比的水平交易,仍具入场机会,市价比目标价格4.41令吉,有46%上升空间。

霹雳运通盈利达标转主板

118点看 2018年2月23日

(吉隆坡22日讯)由于霹雳运通(PTRANS,0186,创业板)已达转板盈利纪录要求及上市条例,所以建议转向主板上市。

霹雳运通向交易所报备,该公司在最新公布的2016财年经审计净利达2157万令吉,而合计3年净利共达5409万令吉。

因此,该集团已达到转板盈利要求,即过去3个财年合计税后盈利须至少2000万令吉,而最新财年则必须录得至少600万令吉。同时,集团处于健康财务状态,包括从营运活动获得现金流,且没有累积亏损。

根据上市条例,公司必须达到至少25%公众持股率。截至2月15日,霹雳运通公众持股率约59.46%。

霹雳运通在2016年10月6日上市大马交易所创业板,而转板将象征另一个里程碑,这也反映集团的增长和财力。

“转板将提升公司的信誉和名声,且吸引到更多投资者的认可,包括机构投资者。”

截至2月15日,公司市值达3亿7093万令吉,显著高于上市时的约1亿7144万令吉。

全年赚2883万

霹雳运通截至去年12月31日末季,净利按年增加6.98%至837万令吉,或每股0.67仙。

不过,营业额却下跌8.14%至2525万令吉。

合计全年,净利按年攀升33.68%至2883万令吉,或每股2.29仙,而营业额则起18.39%至1亿677万令吉。

Unisem FY17 net profit below forecast, says CIMB Research

ANALYST REPORTS
Friday, 23 Feb 20188:28 AM MYT

CIMB Research still expects Unisem to record stronger earnings delivery in 2H18F, driven by its 8-inch wafer capacity expansion in Ipoh,

KUALA LUMPUR: Unisem’s FY17 net profit came in at 6% below CIMB Equities Research’s forecast and was 7% below Bloomberg consensus expectations due to wider-than-expected forex losses and lower average selling prices (ASP) from older packages.

It said on Friday the chipmaker’s net profit fell 1.7% on-year in FY17 mainly due to negative impact from forex losses.

“Unisem plans to raise its FY18F capex to nearly RM200mil as part of the group’s strategy to invest in advanced processes and capacity expansion for future growth.

“We tweak FY18-19F EPS by 3%-5% to reflect narrowing margin from older packages. Maintain Add with a lower RM3.60 target price, still based on 13.5 times CY19F price-to-earnings (P/E),” it said.

CIMB Research pointed out Unisem’s revenue fell 6.5% on-quarter in 4Q17 partly due to appreciation in ringgit against US$ and lower ASPs from older packages and higher mix of lower-margin packages.

As a result of higher operating leverage, core net profit dropped 20.8% from RM40.4mil in 3Q17 to RM32mil in 4Q17.

Its US$ revenue in FY17 grew 7% on-year to US$341mil due to higher sales across all product portfolios.

The stronger sales performance was broadly in line with the global semiconductor industry's ex-memory demand growth in 2017.

“In spite of higher revenue, the group’s earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (Ebitda) fell 3.1% due to higher operating expenditure as a result of increased raw material prices and negative forex impact.

“If we strip out the forex impact, Unisem’s net profit would have expanded 14.4% on-year to RM170mil in FY17 from RM148mil in FY16,” it said.

CIMB Research said Unisem’s communication segment revenue (made up 25% of group revenue in FY17) fell 12.1% on-year, partly due to sluggish smartphone demand and intense competition in the segment.

However, this was offset by stronger revenue growth in the industrial (+45%) and consumer segments (+14%) in FY17. Automotive sales grew marginally by 0.6% in FY17.

“Unisem is investing about RM120mil for new 8-inch and 12-inch wafer bumping lines in Ipoh over FY18-19F. The investment will increase its wafer bumping capacity in Ipoh from 25,000 a month to 35,000 a month,” it said.

The expansion will be completed in phases. The first phase involving 7,000 8-inch wafers a month is slated to come on stream by 2H18F. The second phase involves the new 12-inch bumping line with 3,000 wafers a month. This will only come on stream in 2019F due to the longer qualification period.

“We cut our FY18-19F EPS by 3-5% to account for the narrowing margins of its legacy packages and on-going losses in Batam plant.

“Unisem expects 0%-5% decline in US$ revenue in 1Q18 due to seasonal demand weakness. However, we expect a significant drop in its profitability in 1Q18F due to wider forex loses in the wake of the ringgit's appreciation versus the US$.

“Nevertheless, we still expect Unisem to record stronger earnings delivery in 2H18F, driven by its 8-inch wafer capacity expansion in Ipoh,” it said.

Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/02/23/unisem-fy17-net-profit-below-forecast-says-cimb-research/#orAjoRbDomsOkrmp.99

CIMB Research sees strong earnings growth for Axiata

ANALYST REPORTS
Friday, 23 Feb 20188:43 AM MYT

KUALA LUMPUR: CIMB Equities Research is retaining its sum-of-parts based target price of RM6.10 as it is buffered by higher fair value for Celcom, whose FY17 performance was slightly better than expected.

“We see strong FY18-19F earnings growth as a re-rating catalyst,” it said on Friday.

The research house said FY18F enterprise value/ operating free cashflow (EV/OpFCF) of 22.6 times was at a 41% premium over the Asean telco average but this will drop sharply to 14.9 times in FY19F.

“Dividend yield rises to a decent 2.4%-3.8% in FY18-20F, driven by earnings growth. Downside risk: keener competition and forex risks,” it said.

CIMB Research said Axiata’s 4Q17 core EPS fell 40.8% on-quarter (+168.8% on-year) as weaker Dialog and group-level bonus provisions offset stronger Celcom, XL and Ncell earnings.

“This missed expectations, with FY17 core EPS at 8% below our and consensus forecasts. Key variance was the higher-than-expected performance bonus. FY17 DPS was 8.5 sen (4Q17: 3.5 sen), implying 64% payout.

“Its FY18 KPI targets are flat revenue/ earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) growth (+6.3%/+5.8% on constant currency) and RM6.9bil capex. Axiata guides for FY18 dividend payout of 85%,” it said.

CIMB Research said Celcom’ 4Q17 service revenue grew by a stronger 2.5% on-quarter (+2.6% on-year) (Maxis/Digi: 1.5%/+2.5% on-quarter).

Postpaid average revenue per user (Arpu) rose a healthy 3.6% on-quarter (take-up of higher-end packages), while prepaid Arpu also gained 3% to RM34. These more than offset a 1.4%/1.2% on-quarter decline in postpaid/prepaid subscribers.

4Q17 EBITDA rose 6.7% on-quarter (+15.6% on-year), with the margin easing 0.3% pts on-quarter to 41.3%.

Excluding some one-offs, Celcom says 4Q17 Ebitda margin was c.40%, about steady on-quarter and up from 4Q16’s 38.6%.

XL reported a strong set of 4Q17 results, with Ebitda up a robust 8.1% on-quarter (+38.4% on-year) on lower opex. Core net profit jumped 79.5% on-quarter (4Q16: net loss).

As such, its earnings contribution climbed 110.0% on-quarter to RM63m in 4Q17 (3Q17: RM30m, 4Q16: RM54m).

On the other hand, Dialog’s contribution fell by 16.1% on-quarter (+65.9% on-year) to RM73m, as the Ebitda margin eased.

Robi’s contribution stayed negative at -RM13m in 4Q17 (3Q17: -RM14m) due to elevated device and subscriber acquisition costs, ahead of the launch of its 4G service.

Ncell’s earnings rose 20.0% on-quarter to RM162m, led by higher data and international long distance revenue.

Smart’s contribution rose 6.3% on-quarter to RM67m.

The share of Idea’s losses widened to RM159m (3Q17: -RM156m) due to intense market competition in India.

“We cut FY18-19F core EPS by 5.6%-7.2% to factor in higher group-level cost and lower Dialog contribution (higher depreciation, given Axiata’s capex guidance).

“Post-revision, we forecast core EPS to grow 18.3%/40.8% in FY18/19F, driven by: a) XL’s growth, b) Robi’s turnaround and c) cessation of equity accounting for Idea by mid-2018.

“In terms of reported earnings, Axiata estimates non-cash technical impairment of RM1.2bn-RM1.8bn will be charged in FY18 upon completion of the Idea-Vodafone merger, which is expected,” said CIMB Research.

Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/02/23/cimb-research-sees-strong-earnings-growth-for-axiata/#h7L4HZiVY52V5ZR7.99