Booking.com

Booking.com

Favorite Links

Monday, December 31, 2018

[转贴] 租来的 - 水星

Sunday, December 30, 2018

以前还在大马生活时,有位朋友从外地搬到KL开展生活的新篇章。

刚抵步时陪他拿行李到租回来的一套房子,之前因租金很便宜加上他亲戚介绍,所以没多想就租下了。

不过和他一起进门后,看到的是客厅卧室都非常陈旧破败,厨房的四面墙也都是油腻的痕迹,灯泡也没能幸免地粘着厚厚的油渍,厕所的地板也有破裂,甚至连马桶也污迹斑斑。

当时自己心中已灰了一半,但又不好说什么。

大约半个月后,突然接到朋友的电话,他热情地说:“喂,来我家坐坐吧,当是house warming。”

原来房子的条件欠佳并没有让他有搬家的念头,他还是选择住在那边。不过也难以拒绝邀请,还是不抱多大希望地奉陪了。

然而,再次走进去,自己吓了一跳,墙壁雪白,贴着一些可爱的卡通图案,地上铺了整张的地板革,清新淡雅,厨房也换了灯具以及换气扇,阳台上还多了几盆漂亮的盆栽。

朋友点火做饭,端出了简单美味的三菜一汤,我们坐在明亮的客厅,吃着热乎乎的佳肴,倒也有了一种温馨感。

“我换了新马桶,旧的实在不像样,厨房的墙则花了一番功夫铲了一层才彻底弄干净。“吃完饭,朋友一边洗碗一边想水星熊汇报。

虽然很佩服他,不过当时思想还幼嫩的自己还是边啃着葡萄,边没心没肺地回了一句:“何必呢?房子只不过是租来的而已。“

洗着碗的朋友不怒反笑地说:“我知道,房子是租来的,可是我过的日子不是租来的。“

2018年来到最后一天,有谁是把日子当成是租回来的,得过且过,浑浑噩噩地过生活吗?

年轻的,觉得还有大把的青春可以挥洒,先把几年的20多岁日子当成租来的不必那么认真,等到过了30才认真看待财务也不迟。

中年的,觉得有高额的工作收入已足够,仅依赖职场收入,把闲余时间都当成是租回来的多余空挡,只顾吃喝玩乐,不再抱有可能失去工作的危机意识而忘却了要不断进修与提升自己。

老年的,觉得年事已高,何必再费煞神思去让自己幸苦,把剩余的时间当成是租来的,每天对着电视吃饭睡觉又一天,不再思考自己的生存意义或能对社会可以有什么贡献。

Present这个英文单词包含两个意思:“礼物“,以及,”现在“。说不定,对我们来说,最珍贵的礼物就是现在。

即将告别2018,迎来2019,祝大家新年快乐。

Posted by 水星 at 5:44 PM

http://mercurychong.blogspot.com/2018/12/blog-post_30.html

Saturday, December 29, 2018

[转贴] 2018年教训 – “钢铁”之战 - RH Research

Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Sat, 29 Dec 2018, 12:02 PM

随着2018年即将画上句号,又是时候总结全年的投资旅程,好让未来不再犯下同样的错误。想必大家都在股市经历艰难的一年吧,但是不要气馁及绝望,因为“熊市生存之道”是每个投资者必修的一趟课。

对于我们而言,继续争论目前是不是“熊市”已经没有多大意义。当你的投资组合下跌超过20%以上,理论上你已经陷入自己的“熊市”。承认犯错并不可怕,可怕的是过而不改。相信今年领悟的宝贵经验将塑造你成为更全面及更成熟的投资者。

回归正题,今年犯下的致命决策肯定非“钢铁”莫属。从原本最看好的行业,沦落到年内股价表现最差的领域,钢铁股或许已成为许多投资者的“恶梦”。值得一提,4大长钢股在今年平均下跌大约70%!

回顾今年Q1期间,螺纹钢价格徘徊于每吨RM2,600-2,700之间,也就是近几年的高位,比去年Q4的每吨RM2,300-2,600还要高。当时的市场需求也不减,几家钢铁企业也有意思在今年提升产能。

此外,我们当时还有幸与一位钢铁企业的老板会谈。他表示,公司在2018年初收到非常多的订单,而且产能已不足以迎合这些庞大的订单,因此惟有停止接单。

基于以上因素,我们认为今年Q1业绩将优于去年Q4的表现。事实上,这些钢铁股一致交出非常优越的业绩,但是股价却往下跌,而且之后还是一去不回头。

到底这个行业发生什么事,导致股价遭到如此严重的打击?
- 全国大选出乎预料改朝换代,多项大型基建项目遭到重新审核;建筑行业进入冬天,而钢铁领域需求也大幅度走低。
- 美国总统Trump推出关税政策,对进口钢铁征收25%的关税。虽说本地钢铁企业没有受到实质性影响,但是却引发全球钢铁股抛售潮。
- 美国股市在2月初进入大型调整阶段。全球股市受到牵连,处于跌势的钢铁股成为市场抛售的主要对象。
- 中国钢铁领域在去年12月进入冬天限产,同时需求也出现放缓情况,导致当地价格下滑。本地钢铁股的投资情绪受到打击。
- 政府宣布调涨大马半岛的天然气价格大约23%,进一步加重钢铁业者的营运成本包袱。

ANNJOO董事经理林鸿泰曾在今年股东大会上描述:“老实说,我们在年初非常看好2018年本地钢铁领域的展望。公司在竞标大型基建项目的订单处于良好的进展,而中国承包商也开始向我们采购钢铁。此外,原料价格也如预期般回到合理的价位。一切看似非常好,但是在改朝换代后,新政府的未来方向出现变化,导致建筑行业不敢轻举妄动而出现放缓的情况。这些都是不在我们的控制范围内,惟有希望需求将在不久后复苏。”

总结以上,我们始终认为年初的判断是没有错,但是计划赶不上变化,而且股价走势已提前反映出未来3-6个月的行情。为此,我们必须对自己的投资决策付出代价。

迟迟不愿止损更是投资的致命伤。MASTEEL的买入价 – RM1.20左右,最终止损RM0.70左右;SSTEEL的买入价 – RM2.20左右,最终止损RM1.70左右。投资者必须引以为戒,学会止损真的真的非常重要!!

无可否认,执行止损是一件痛苦的事情,是对人性弱点的挑战和考验,但是只有克服亏损的恐惧及压力,你才能继续在股市中生存,并且最终获利。切记,一次亏损不代表失败;不要感到气馁,因为你还有保留资金,可以重新再战股市。

投资者一定要有自己的独立思维和看法,不要盲目听信别人的消息或者劝告。举例,有些人会告诉你某支股票有庄家在操盘,但是别忘了,在熊市中,庄家同样可能被套。

亏钱没什么好羞耻,输钱都是每个投资者都会经历的事故,就连资深投资者如“冷眼”和官有缘前辈也不例外;前者相信被严重套在JTIASA,而后者在JAKS身上亏损接近RM70m。如果有些人每次都强调自己赚钱而没输钱,那么你就要小心思考了。

欢迎大家在留言分享自己今年学到的教训或经验。

最后,祝大家2019年投资顺利!



https://www.facebook.com/rhresearch/posts/2251550028189937

Tong's Value Investing Portfolio as of December 27, 2018

Tong Kooi Ong

Wishing all a blessed holiday and Happy New Year

With just a few trading days left (at the point of writing), 2018 is on track to be one of the worst, if not the worst, year for stocks worldwide since the global financial crisis in 2008.

What’s particularly jarring is that most market experts and strategists have predicted a rally at the start of the year on the back of synchronised global economic growth. Well, things certainly didn’t turn out the way they were supposed to.

This time around, analyst outlook for 2019 is a lot more divergent and extreme. Some including Alan Greenspan are forecasting an outright bear market. The former US Federal Reserve chairman advice to investors is to “run for cover”. He predicts that rising indebtedness, interest rates and welfare spending as well as increasingly protectionist policies (such as trade tariffs) will raise prices and dampen growth, with the US economy ending in a stagflation.

Others are less pessimistic. JP Morgan, for instance forecasts the US economy will grow an above average 1.9%, though coming off a fiscal-stimulus high of 3.1% in 2018. Nevertheless, it believes emerging and Asian markets could see cyclical upturn in 2Q2019, a view that is shared by Morgan Stanley. The latter is “outright bullish on markets in Asia” if currencies stabilise and China growth rebounds on expansionary policies.

S&P Global Ratings, on the other hand, says that Asia faces more downgrades to growth and currency pain from higher US interest rates. And despite slashing expectations, Credit Suisse still forecasts double-digit gains for US stocks. Goldman Sachs suggests that it is time for investors to get defensive with high quality stocks.

Little wonder investors are left feeling confused. Given the rally in recent years, such divergent views are to be expected. I doubt we will get mired in a stagflation, thanks to disinflationary effect from digitalisation. But global economic growth will slow next year and markets will likely stay volatile due to uncertainties, especially in geopolitics.

Case in point, outcome of the trade spat between the US and China will be a key factor in dictating the pace of global growth and where stocks are next headed. Yet President Trump has proven to be extremely unpredictable, as underscored by the revolving door of his own cabinet.

Stocks on the Singapore Exchange and Bursa Malaysia too had a dismal year in 2018, in line with selloff in global markets (see Tables 1-6). About four in every five stocks are in the red for the year-to-date, for both exchanges.

Broadly speaking, smaller cap stocks fared far worse than big caps, as is to be expected. For instance in Malaysia, whilst two in three stocks with market caps exceeding RM1 billion are in negative territory, almost nine out of every 10 stocks with market caps below RM1 billion are in the red.

Stocks in my Global Portfolio fell again in the past one-week, but fare slightly better than the benchmark index. Total returns now stand at -19.3% since inception. The portfolio is under-performing the MSCI World Net Return Index, which is down by a lesser -10.3% over the same period.

By contrast, the Malaysian Portfolio finished higher for the week ended Thursday, gaining 1.9%. Total portfolio returns inched up to 48.1% since inception. This portfolio continues to outperform the benchmark index, FBM KLCI, which is still down 7.6%, by a long way.

Performance Comparison Since Inception (%)
%-7.648.1-15-10-50510152025303540455055
  • Tong's Value Investing Portfolio
  • FBM KLCI
SHARES HELDQUANTITYAVERAGE COSTCOST OF
INVESTMENT
CURRENT
PRICE
CURRENT
VALUE
GAIN /
(LOSS)
GAIN /
(LOSS)
SCGM BHD11,0661.73219,218.41.15012,725.9(6,492.5)(33.8%)
AJINOMOTO (M) BHD1,50011.81317,720.019.60029,400.011,680.065.9%
PANASONIC MANUFACTURING MSIA60026.15717,182.037.90022,740.05,558.032.3%
Y.S.P.SOUTHEAST ASIA HOLDING10,5002.41325,340.02.65027,825.02,485.09.8%
FORMOSA PROSONIC INDUSTRIES18,0001.54027,720.01.65029,700.01,980.07.1%
HONG LEONG INDUSTRIES BHD2,0009.12618,251.08.70017,400.0(851.0)(4.7%)
WILLOWGLEN MSC BHD19,9000.5009,950.00.4559,054.5(895.5)(9.0%)
MALAYAN BANKING BHD3,00010.25030,750.09.40028,200.0(2,550.0)(8.3%)
MAH SING GROUP BHD19,0001.01019,190.00.92017,480.0(1,710.0)(8.9%)
ECO WORLD DEVELOPMENT GROUP BERHAD15,2001.23518,772.00.91513,908.0(4,864.0)(25.9%)
DIALOG GROUP BHD5,7003.45219,676.43.10017,670.0(2,006.4)(10.2%)
Total223,769.8226,103.42,333.61.0%
Shares bought
No transaction.
Total shares held223,769.8226,103.42,333.61.0%
Shares sold
No transaction.
Cash Balance70,151.9
Realised Profits / (Losses)93,921.6
Change since last update Dec 20, 2018
Portfolio1.9%
FBMKLCI2.4%
Portfolio Returns Since Inception200,000.00296,255.396,255.348.1%
Portfolio Returns (Annualised)11.4%
Portfolio Beta0.675
Risk Adjusted Returns Since Inception71.3%
Performance ComparisonAt Portfolio StartCurrentChangeRelative Portfolio Outperformance
FBM KLCI1,829.71,690.7(7.6%)55.7%
FBM Emas12,700.411,263.3(11.3%)59.4%
Footnote:
*Current price is as at December 27, 2018.
*Portfolio started on Oct 10, 2014 with MYR200,000.
*This is a personal portfolio for information purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or solicitation or expression of views to influence readers to buy/sell stocks.

STOCKS SOLD IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS (Currency: MYR)
SHARES SOLDDATE BOUGHTDATE SOLDQUANTITYAVERAGE
COST
COST OF
INVESTMENT
PRICE SOLDSALES
PROCEEDS
GAIN /
(LOSS)
GAIN /
(LOSS)
MIKRO MSC BERHAD01-Dec-1627-Jul-1742,0000.33113,920.00.54522,890.08,970.064.4%
CLASSIC SCENIC BHD01-Dec-1627-Jul-174,0001.4135,651.31.7907,160.01,508.826.7%
PANASONIC MANUFACTURING MSIA21-Jan-1627-Jul-1740026.12510,450.037.10014,840.04,390.042.0%
ELSOFT RESEARCH BHD30-Mar-1724-Aug-178,0001.84414,750.02.65021,200.06,450.043.7%
JOHORE TIN BERHAD - WA 12/1704-May-1724-Aug-1717,0000.65511,135.00.68011,560.0425.03.8%
FOCUS LUMBER BERHAD03-May-1730-Aug-176,0001.6609,960.01.5309,180.0(780.0)(7.8%)
WILLOWGLEN MSC BHD23-Nov-1630-Aug-177,0000.7685,377.01.43010,010.04,633.086.2%
WILLOWGLEN MSC BHD23-Nov-1628-Sep-177,0000.7705,377.01.1808,260.02,883.053.6%
LII HEN INDUSTRIES BHD14-Dec-1628-Sep-175,0002.82014,100.03.72018,600.04,500.031.9%
COMFORT GLOVES BERHAD28-Aug-1708-Dec-1725,0000.96024,000.00.93023,250.0(750.0)(3.1%)
JOHORE TIN BHD08-May-1708-Dec-179,0001.60014,400.01.18010,620.0(3,780.0)(26.3%)
THONG GUAN INDUSTRIES BHD12-Dec-1608-Dec-175,0004.24321,215.04.10020,500.0(715.0)(3.4%)
KERJAYA PROSPEK GROUP BERHAD12-Jan-1715-Mar-1811,0001.02511,280.01.54016,940.05,660.050.2%
KERJAYA PROSPEK GROUP BERHAD - WARRANTS B 2018/202308-Mar-1815-Mar-183,0000.0000.00.330990.0990.0-
LUXCHEM CORPORATION BHD30-Aug-1715-Mar-1816,5000.73212,072.50.72011,880.0(192.5)(1.6%)
WILLOWGLEN MSC BHD14-Dec-1722-Mar-1820,0001.01020,200.01.26025,200.05,000.024.8%
MUAR BAN LEE GROUP BERHAD26-Oct-1722-Mar-1813,5001.24016,740.01.17015,795.0(945.0)(5.6%)
CHOO BEE METAL INDUSTRIES BHD07-Sep-1716-May-188,0002.19017,520.02.44019,520.02,000.011.4%
CHOO BEE METAL INDUSTRIES BHD07-Sep-1721-May-188,0002.19017,520.02.30018,400.0880.05.0%
SUPERLON HOLDINGS BHD01-Dec-1721-May-186,0001.1757,050.01.5509,300.02,250.031.9%
OKA CORPORATION BHD14-Dec-1728-Jun-1812,0001.54118,488.01.27015,240.0(3,248.0)(17.6%)
SUPERLON HOLDINGS BHD01-Dec-1728-Jun-186,0001.1757,050.01.2107,260.0210.03.0%
WILLOWGLEN MSC BHD14-Dec-1728-Jun-181000.50050.00.54054.04.08.0%
PANTECH GROUP HOLDINGS BHD17-May-1802-Aug-1843,0000.58024,940.00.56024,080.0(860.0)(3.4%)
KERJAYA PROSPEK GROUP BERHAD10-Jan-1706-Sep-1811,0001.02011,225.01.40015,400.04,175.037.2%
LUXCHEM CORPORATION BHD25-Aug-1706-Sep-1816,5000.71711,825.00.65510,807.5(1,017.5)(8.6%)
HOCK SENG LEE BHD19-Apr-1806-Sep-1814,5001.52022,033.01.37019,865.0(2,168.0)(9.8%)
GENTING MALAYSIA BERHAD06-Sep-1828-Nov-183,8005.07019,266.03.06011,628.0(7,638.0)(39.6%)
TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD06-Sep-1806-Dec-183,6005.50019,800.06.03021,708.01,908.09.6%
A Note to Readers

It is my pleasure to share with you my Value Investing Portfolio. However, I must emphasize that it is by no means a recommendation or a solicitation or expression of views to influence you to buy or sell any stocks. I am just sharing openly on what I am doing with my stock portfolio.

Further, I like to remind all investors that investing is not just about the profits or returns. You will inevitably suffer stock losses too. You need to understand your own investment objective, risk appetite and the amount of loss you can afford to bear. So, while many investors talk only about absolute returns, I am also sharing the computed risk-weighted returns of my portfolio.

Tong Kooi Ong