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Saturday, September 30, 2017

Pitfall of profit 童话故事之盈利的陷阱 - bluefun

Author: bluefun | Publish date: Sat, 30 Sep 2017, 03:19 PM

朋友们好,好久不见,在哪街角的咖啡店,不知朋友们会不会带着微笑和 bluefun 挥手寒喧呢? 哈哈哈 :D 。

今天咱们就来探讨一下看似保持盈利上扬 (consistent growth in net profit)的公司,为何股价就是吹也吹不涨。 套用 bluefun 小弟常说的也就是:“ Ding Ding Dong Dong” LOL??

不是说好的盈利 (Net Profit) 与股价 (Share Price) 成为正比的吗??Zo Si Mi Ah Ni??

我们常认为的上升中的盈利 (growth or improvement in net profit) 都将吸引更加多的投资者的目光而水涨船高。投资者几分的守候就会换来几分的回报,这就是复利 (compound of interest) 的魅力与奥妙 XD。

bluefun 小弟在此就举出 construction sector 的几家公司为例吧:

(1) Gadang



(2) George Kent




(3) Econpile





(4) Kerjaya




然而,也并不是每一家保持出色或者上升中盈利 (consistent growth or improvement in net profit)的公司,股价会随之扶摇而上,这听起来好像很很很神奇吧??

所谓凡是没绝对,话不能说到尾 LOL 。买榴莲回家吃也不一定包让你对榴莲留恋,只是包开不知果肉是甜或苦罢了 :D


以下的 example 就是今天咱们探讨盈利上扬或保持出色,股价却背道而驰的公司。

(1) Ho Hup

(a) Mother






(b) Son



公司简介(Introduction):

和合建筑(Ho Hup Construction Company Berhad) 是一家老牌建筑公司,在2008年7月因面临财困问题而陷入PN17 Status。经过公司努力的整合之下,于2014年和合建筑终于脱离了PN17 行列。

简单来说 PN17 行列里的公司都是陷入巨大的财困压力,公司必须呈交整合计划 (restructure proposal) 以整顿公司的财务,以保持上市的地位 (listing status)。

从这五年的净利列表 (Profit/loss account) 来看,和合建筑是一家由亏转盈 (turn around) 的建筑公司。 2011 年,和合建筑亏损 11m (loss before taxation),然而在订单强劲之下,于 2013年开始转盈直到现财年(current financial year=FY2017)。

公司在2015年创下历史新高的税前净利 (earning before taxation) 87m,股价也在那时候扶摇而上一度触及 RM1.53最高点。

然而好景不长,公司的营业额 (revenue) 与税前净利 (earning before taxation) 从2015 年之后开始每况愈下,但依然保持 > 182m 的 revenue & > 61m 的 earning before taxation。

虽然 revenue & earning before taxation 依然保持可观的数目,但是公司的股价 (Share price) 就越来越 bor lat,截止至 2017年9月29日闭市价,母股(ordinary shares) RM0.670, 52w最低点 RM0.660,52w最高点 RM0.920。 而子股 (warrant) 则在 RM0.190 扎根。



这就是今天咱们探讨的议题,为何保持可观营业额与税前净利的公司,股价怎么吹也吹不涨??莫非气球里有破洞?? (Why consistent revenue & profit,share price NO UP but REVERSE??)

Point 1: Growth & consistent in revenue (>182m) & EBT (>61m),why share price suicide??

Turn around stock,from loss before position 11m in year 2011 until achieved highest earning before taxation 87m in year 2015,but 2016 on wards, revenue & EBT surged but still able to maintain revenue (182m) & EBT (>61m)。

由亏转盈的建筑公司,保持良好的营业额与税前净利,股价却越挫越低??为什么??

29/09/2017 Share price:

(i) Mother - RM0.670
(ii) Son - RM0.190



Point 2: Growth & consistent in revenue (>182m) & EBT (>61m),why debt(loan & borrowings) increase like no tomorrow??

Debt (Loan & borrowings) level growth together with revenue,even higher than FY17 rolling 4Q revenue。

FY17Q1: Revenue = 196m VS Debt = 215m
FY17Q2: Revenue = 182m VS Debt = 233m

公司的借贷水平高过 FY17的营业额,莫非营业额与税前净利和借贷有化学作用??



Point 3:Debt level (Loan & borrowings) year year high even higher than revenue,diluted EBIT portion for interest cost。 Profitable company,why still borrow more $$$??

Even though revenue & EBT still able to maintain (>182m) & (61m),but debt level(long term & short term loan & borrowings) is going higher & higher。% growth of debt is unexpected crazy。Company has obligation to pay interest for loan & borrowings which will "EAT" portion of EBIT,expose to higher financial risk。


虽然又亏转盈,保持良好营业额与税前净利,过高的债务却让公司必须承担将会降低 EBIT 的借贷利息。 除此之外,高企的债务水平让公司面对一定的金融压力。





Point 4:Maintain consistent revenue (>182m) & EBT (>61m),but CFFO & FCF always NEGATIVE??

Even though company able to maintain consistent revenue & EBT, but due to terrible cash flow management,CFFO only managed to positive sign in year 2012,2013 & 2016。 Positive CFFO & FCF in year 2012 & 2013 due to huge increasing in payable (+116m) & (+59m)。

公司的现金流管理有待改善,虽然保持营业额与税前净利,大多数的时候 CFFO & FCF 都是保持 negative。 也就是说 cash in flow < cash out flow,就是所谓的流出公司的钱比流进公司的钱多!!!






Point 5:Turnaround from losses,year year profitable,maintain EBT (>61m),but why FCF & cash always NEGATIVE??

Suppose profitable company will be cash rich due to improvement in revenue & EBT (generates more cash in flow),but cash level of Ho Hup in question mark??

Negative FCF, deficit in cash, profitable company le,cash mana pergi?? Even debt is going higher & higher!!!

由亏转盈,直线上升与保持良好的营业额与税前净利,但是为何公司却缺乏手上现金??现金流管理不佳??所以借贷多,行得通???



Point 6:Profitable company,maintain EBT (>61m),but why NO DIVIDEND DECLARATION?? Mana PROFIT SHARING??

Company able to maintain (> 61m),turn around from losses,but then why no dividend declaration in the past 5 years?? Bukankah Berat Sama Dipikul Ringan Sama Dijinjing??

Oh, lack of cash,that's the point!!!

保持良好的盈利,公司却无法发放股息给予陪伴成长的投资者们??不是说好的盈利要共享,有难一起担吗??原来还真的是缺少现金,这就是所谓的有难一起担当??




Point 7:Profitable company,maintain EBT (>61m),negative FCF,debt high high,share price why low low but no high??

Company share price in reverse trend,unable to generates more cash in flow (+ CFFO & + FCF) during continuous profit (growth in EBT) caused lack cash on hand,question mark in down trend revenue & profit??

当营业额与盈利直线上升时, 和合建筑无法创造更加多的现金流流进公司以改善 CFFO & FCF,反而借贷越借越高。 当营业额与税前盈利下滑之时,改善的现金流会成为一个大问号!!!



Point 8:Profitable company,maintain EBT (>61m),major shareholder keep dispose its shareholdings??

Turn around stock,maintain EBT (>61m,but recently major shareholder Omesti Holding Berhad & Omesti Berhad keep dispose its shareholding in Ho hup & Ho hup-WA?? Why??Thanks to major shareholder disposal,share price of mother & warrant being surged to bottom。

29/09/2017 Share price:

(i) Mother - RM0.670
(ii) Son - RM0.190

近期, 大股东 Omesti Holding Berhad & Omesti Berhad 一直割爱手上的股份导致股价不停地流血?? 盈利与营业额还不错,为何要一直不断的割爱呢?? 难道连大股东都对公司的前途没有信心??

Changes in shareholding:

(a) Mother: http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/#/?category=SH&sub_category=all&alphabetical=All&company=5169

(b) Warrant : http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/#/?category=SH&sub_category=all&alphabetical=All&company=5169WA

Point 9:Profitable company,maintain EBT (>61m),extension of right issue??

Company propose to right issue with free warrant during Q1 of FY2016,but until to date,the corporate exercise still yet to be finalize。

2016年第一季,公司建议附加股附送子以筹集资金加强财务。 但是直到今天,附加股附送子计划还没进行,是否淋了雨,冻过水??





Conclusion:

虽然保持盈利(growth & consistent in profit) 很重要,但是公司的现金流管理 (cash flow management),债务处理能力 (debt management) 也是不可忽略的一环。

有盈利 (profitable),可是没更多的钱流进公司里 (unable to turn the profit as cash in flow),那算不算真正的盈利 (real profit) ??算不算真正的为股东们创造最大的财富呢 (maximize shareholder's value??

有盈利 (profitable),却保持着差劲的现金流 (terrible cash flow management),不但让手上的可用现金少 (lack cash & bank balances),分分钟还促使公司向银行借更高的债务 (loan more debt) 以承担公司的日常业务(loan as working capital to support core business activities)。这不但是所谓的“赔了夫人又折兵”,而且是“打破米粮摔破碗”啊。

虽然做功课分析无法 100% 准确的预测一家公司未来的股价。 但是透过这一些公司的特质 (trend in balance sheet, cash flow & profit& loss account),我们依然可以算一算投资的胜算。 正所谓: “不算不算,何来胜算”。

住进一家拥有良好现金流,保持成长中的公司,少债务,多现金,有 improvement in profit margin, improvement in CFFO & FCF, improvement in receivables 的公司好过一家年年赚钱,但是现金流不佳,缺乏手上现金,高企的债务,还一直伸手向股东们要钱的公司好。

投资者辛辛苦苦赚来的血汗钱要睁大眼睛投资,要知道: "没有人会为了你而流泪,也没有谁该为你感到亏欠"。

希望今天的课题可以为朋友们带来一些不一样的启发,在学习与投资的路上更加顺顺利利。

好与不好的Criteria Trend 真的会在股价上说话

持之以恒,水到渠成

有盈利,改善现金流 的公司请长期拥有;
有成长,发放股息多现金的公司请常驻。

bluefun
30.09.2017

original article: http://bluefun168.blogspot.my/2017/09/pitfall-of-profit_40.html
fb page: https://www.facebook.com/bluefun668/
email: bluefun.fa@outlook.com

P/S: This article is just for education & discussion purpose,this is not a buy call, sell call or hold call. Please trade at your own risk。

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