Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Tue, 11 Sep 2012, 08:39 PM
Feb 20th, 2010
股票投资要成功，其中一个主要的因素，是对你所购买的股票，具有充足的信心。
有信心，你才有胆识买进；有信心，你才有胆识在股价大跌，股票价值被严重低估时买进更多，以拉低成本；有信心，你才会进行长期投资，惟有长期投资，才有可能取得丰厚的回酬。
股票企业股份证书
大量买进，股价暴跌时买进更多，加上长期持有，是累积财富的不二法门。
累积财富，使你在退休后财务自主，是投资股票的终极目标；累积财富不能靠投机达致，所以，戒绝投机！
信心，必须来自对有关股票的认识，有认识才有胆识。
对有关股票所代表的企业，有深入的认识，就是对你所持有的股票，有深入的认识。
因为股票就是企业股份的证书，买股票，不是买一张纸，而是购买一项企业的资产和业务，目的在於分享企业的盈利。
投资油棕业2途径
认识企业，必须始於认识有关企业所属的行业。如果这个行业是有前途的，从事这个行业的企业，就有前途。
你选购这个行业中管理良好的企业的股票，就能助你累积财富。
例如你想投资油棕种植业，首先你必须对棕油的前景有基本的认识。
有了认识，才有信心，而信心为成功之母。
投资油棕业，有两条途径。
一条是购买土地，亲力亲为，种植油棕。
作为受薪阶级，不易做到。因为土地难求，即使有，价格不菲，本大利小，不划算。你也没有种植和管理油棕园的知识技术和时间，也分身乏术。
所以，此路不通。
退而求其次，是购买上市油棕股。购买油棕股，就是购买油棕园的股份。
也就是投资於油棕业，惟一不同的是你把油棕园交给别人去管，你不过问，只分享油棕园的利润。
例如你买进IOI集团（IOICorp，1961，主板种植股）的股票，你其实是把油棕园交给丹斯里李深静所率领的团队去管，你不必去烦油棕园的事，只坐而分享利润。
这样，你可以继续做上班族，有固定的薪金收入，又可以分享IOI的盈利（股息），何等轻松写意？
但在买进IOI或其他油棕股之前，你必须做一点功课，认识棕油业。
这样，可以增加你对所持油棕股的信心，有了这份信心，就不会因油棕股价格的波动而担心，情绪不会受到影响，对太太孩子才会常挂笑脸。
棕油资料
要认识一个行业，需从大处着手：这个行业在世界经济中的地位。
让我们看一些有关棕油的资料：
●在2008年，世界植物油脂的总产量为1亿5970万公吨。棕油占4310万公吨，大豆油占3690万公吨，这两种油脂占世界产量的50%。
●棕油在2005年首次超越大豆油，跃居世界植物油脂第一位。
如果把棕仁油计算在内，棕油占世界总产量的30%。
●各国所产棕油，部份供国内消费（作为食油和工业用途），77%供出口，是有关国家的主要外汇来源，包括大马。
用途广市场大
●棕油的用途越来越广，市场在扩大中。
●世界油脂消耗量，25年来，年年增加。在过去5年，平均每年增加4.9%，在此之前的10年，每年增加3.9%。植物燃油采用植物油制造，是过去5年消耗量增长更快的主要原因。
增长在持续中。
●过去10年，世界人均油脂消耗量为
1999：每人18.1公斤。
2008：每人23.7公斤。
将来肯定会消耗得更多。
●人均收入，直接影响人均油脂消耗量，2008年各国油脂消耗量为：
美国：每人每年54公斤。
欧盟：每人每年59公斤。
印度：每人每年13公斤。
中国：每人每年22公斤。
消耗量将跟着人均收入的增加而上升。
●过去10年，世界植物油脂产量增加了56%。
但棕油增产：145%。
棕仁油增产：124%。
大豆油增产：63%。
这是棕油在2005年超越大豆油的原因。
●油棕业发展史：
油棕原产地为非洲。
荷兰人於1840年将4棵油棕苗移植至爪哇茂物植物园，这是油棕首次东渡。当时是作为观赏植物。
1870年，油棕植根於新加坡植物园。
1911年，比利时农业经济学家M. Adrian Hallet在苏门答腊开辟东方第一个油棕园丘。
1911至12年，法国人Henri Fauconnier由苏门答腊运来一批油棕苗，种在通往他在雪兰莪的咖啡园的道路两旁。
1917年，Fauconnier在雪兰莪八丁燕带开辟大马第1个油棕园。
1925年：大马油棕园面积为3,350公顷，第2次世界大战前增至 20,000公顷。
政府积极推广
60年代中期，大马政府积极推动以油棕代替树胶，从此油棕业突飞猛进。
现仍在扩大中。
在2008年时，大马拥有450万公顷油棕园，占大马土地面积的10%。年产量17万7000公吨，60%输往中国、印度、巴基斯坦、欧盟和美国。人口多国家是主要市场，不受经济强国操纵。
●大马油棕业直接雇用57万人，每年创汇500亿令吉。
● 过去40年，世界棕油产量增加近30倍。
1963年：150万公吨。
2008年：4,310万公吨。
在世界植物油总产量中，
1963年：棕油占4%。
2008年：棕油占30%。
棕油股前景亮丽
大马为世界提供了最优良最廉价的植物油，贡献最大。
油棕种植业，是大马一个成功的故事，我们应引以为荣。
作为大马公民，我们理应分享这成功的果实。
购买油棕股，就是购买油棕园。
购买油棕园，就是从事油棕业，就是分享这个黄金作物的成果。
购买油棕股，就是参与一个前途亮丽的行业。
购买油棕园，就是购买土地。
投资於油棕股，就是分享大马肥沃土地的恩赐。
这使我想起一则逸事：
25年前当我在《南洋商报》担任经济组主任的时候，常常出席重要上市公司的常年大会。
记得有一次，我出席哈里逊（牙直利种植公司的年会），该公司董事主席敦莫哈末阿里（即前国家银行总裁，退休后担任PNB主席，PNB控制哈里逊），他在会后举行记者招待会，说过几句话，至今仍不忘。
他说：“购买种植股，锁在保险箱，留给子孙。”
你也可以购买油棕股，分享股息，过有尊严的晚年，股票则不妨留给子孙。
Tuesday, January 31, 2017
冷眼新书《孙子股市兵法》书评：有一些新梗 但很多都是老梗 （part 1）
Author: kakashit | Publish date: Mon, 30 Jan 2017, 10:40 AM
这是我磨到烂的冷眼第一本《30年股票投资心得》
这是我获得前辈亲笔签名的第二本《股票投资正道》
冷眼曾多次在过去的著述与专栏应用《孙子兵法》的名句。对于我们这些受中文教育的子弟来说，除了《三国演义》外，接触最多的就是《孙子兵法》了。对于这些古书玄之又玄的道理，总是有着莫名的吸引力。如今，冷爷不但要把古书的理论给复活，还要应用在西方发明的资本主义的最高等产物--股市，那么我就要验证这第三本本书有多靠谱。
第一章：少算不胜，何况无算
首先，冷眼肯定是个研究地皮的老行尊，已经多次在过去的文章中提到种植业和产业了，想不到在第三本新书还是老调重弹。
已经在第一本书《30年股票投资心得》161页 3.2c怎样评估种植股：详细教导怎样算出一间种植股的地每英亩值多少钱，再与市价相比，你就能知道自己买地开垦，还是投资于种植股划算。
就算你没有这一本书，你也能在网上找到冷眼的专栏。
种植业
你也可以拥有油棕园
东方不败–棕油
买油棕股留子孙
产业
屋业利润知多少？
土地永远是好投资
产业股被低估
3000令吉可买多少地？
冷爷应该为我们开示，现在的产业价值是否已经泡沫化？是否会重演2008年美欧房市的崩盘，或者是香港2003年沙士病毒期间楼市的崩盘？
3.12 地者，险易死生也
这八大行业，冷眼在过去的文章都有cover了，为何不告诉我们整个油气股的产业链是怎样运作的？
既然油气业已经跌到谷底了，冷眼应该告诉我们fpso是怎么运作的。
为什么油价从30美元升到50美元，许多油气公司才开始破产？
又或者是发电厂，污水处理的turnkey工程，大道公司的收费合约（Ekovest）。到底要如何知道那一条大道是赚钱的。
现在已经是智能手机的时代。为何同样是电子股，Inari走上坡；Gtronic走下坡。
成功转型做汽车大头灯led的如Kesm、JHM才成功，其他的做什么sensor就看不到钱。
这些都是必须个别案例个别分析，能够用孙子兵法来解释吗？
第二章：费留
确实，投资股票要有一套周而复始，屡试不爽的方法，才能确保资本能够不断地成长。不能说这一战赢了，下一站又不知从何开始，必须要有可持续性。赌博为何不可行？就是因为没有可持续性。
在第71页，很明显他讲的人物就是iCap的陈鼎武，Tan Teng Boo。不知道为什么到现在还有人把他当神来拜，股价依然高居不下，每年坐收几百万的年薪。他的工作不就是你我一样，滑动电脑或手机来进行买卖。
以为自己不穿西装结领带、不梳理头发，就是个与众不同的反向投资者，还整天把自己跟巴菲特相提并论，真的是不知丑、不知所谓。大家都懂巴菲特从不预测大市的走向，单单是这点，双方的投资理论就南辕北撤了。
2.4 防污八法 冷股勿买
88 页、冷门股不能买？我最喜欢就是买冷门股。冷门股指的就会交投稀少，买价和卖价的差距很大的counter。
比如说家私股Tafi去年的买卖价差是30仙与35仙之间，如果你想要直接买入，就只能吃35仙的票，想要直接卖出就只能吃30仙的票，一买一卖就15%。
我的策略是：
如果你要进场，你就排在31仙，通常等两个星期就会有股东把票给卖给你。
然后你要套利就把卖价设在34仙，通常要一个月才卖得出。
那么在两个月内，你就能赚到3仙，约10%。是不是比放3个月短期FD好？
Tafi, mpcorp, oversea, kpscb, panpage, picorp等都是我玩过的冷门股，这些股票背后都有硬资产支撑，所以不会有突然倒闭的风险。
买冷门股其实是散户的特权和优势。那些基金经理想要买都不可以因为必须遵守国行设定的规条，特别是只能购买流通量高的股票，因为怕基金客户挤提，那么投资组合也要跟着套现，把钱退回给客户，特别绊手绊脚。
买冷门股的前提是不能借钱买，不急着等钱用，要像钓鱼的人般有耐性，钓到就开心，钓不到也无所谓。
3.1 策之而知得失之计
114 页、看美国，更要看中国，世界第二大经济体，我国最大的出口国，占了总出口量的两成，是我们的金主。
这几年来，中国建商大力来马发展，隆新高铁，TRX金融性，柔佛伊斯干达特区等大量的硬体投入。中国已经不在经济上自我保护，而是透过一带一路放眼全世界，驱动全球的经济前景。（os:庆幸我是受中文教育的)。
形知而知死生之地
115页、当你不是很确定，直觉上又很想买入的时候，买少少来试探是很重要，因为拥有，才会有切身之痛。拳击手也会用jab来试探对手，看可不可以全力进攻。
有了股份，你自然会关心股价的起落，跟进公司的进展。信我，当你买入股票过后，你肯定会有新的发现，特别是不利的因素。
等你真的找不到任何陷阱，才可放心大批买入。
道德观念，先入为主的印象
有许多投资者对官联企业都带有刻板印象，认为这些公司都是靠裙带关系拿合约，不具竞争力，无法为股东赚取回酬。结果他们错过了很多好机会。
好像Gunung和Destini这两只小型的官联股都是很不错的。他们既有先天的优势，后天又肯努力。
又或者是笔者，本着蓝筹股公司的市场饱和，本大利小、只能收息而不屑一顾。
结果还是有稳定又高成长潜能的蓝筹股，尽管媒体一再报导，我就是不理会，结果我就这样错过了Ajinomoto，Panamy松下电器这两个实力派好股。
3.5 先知必取于人
值得补充的是，多去跑一年一度的股东大会，会让你有意想不到的收获。
多跟董事和其他股东攀谈，你可以了解到不只是该公司，而是其他同行甚至是整个行业的资讯。
有些董事部就连一年只有一次的股东大会都希望会议赶快结束，不想要股东发言，随便敷衍股东的提问，那么你就心里有数这家公司到底值不值得投资了。
笔者的一些小贴士：有些公司喜欢在股东大会后公布公司的季报。如果你看到董事个个都眉开眼笑，非常健谈，那么你就能大概猜到即将公布的业绩是不错的。
待续……
顶级手套冀3年内达30%市占率
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Mon, 30 Jan 2017, 01:16 PM
2017-01-29 19:06
顶级手套专注于提升自动化及征聘更多高品质研究人员，以在2020年达到30%市占率。该集团主席丹斯里林伟才早前表示，该公司正积极改善业务运作以应对制造领域不断增加的挑战。
顶级手套（TOPGLOV，7113，主板工业产品组）专注于提升自动化及征聘更多高品质研究人员，以在2020年达到30%市占率。
该集团主席丹斯里林伟才早前表示，该公司正积极改善业务运作以应对制造领域不断增加的挑战。
他认为，手套领域变得更加竞争。
“20年前，我们以高成本生产品质不如现在好的胶手套，1000只手套要价80美元（约353令吉32仙），但今天出口价仅20美元，价格以难以想像的速度下滑，品质却更好，但我们无法不降价，不这么做的话，将被市场排除在外，在别无选择之下只能投资研发（R&D）。”
他指出，许多业者离开大马转投其他国家，主要是没有足够的工厂，因此我们才需要在国内工厂作更多投资。
每年该集团聘请200至300名毕业生，明年料增聘超过300人。
自动化设施可降低成本
“投资本地人才对公司长期有利，以减少聘期外劳员工，节省更多开销，但投资自动化需要更多研究专才，促使企业聘请更多毕业生、科学家及化学家。”
他说，征聘外劳的成本非常高，产品素质却不如自动化设备稳定，反观自动化设施，长期可降低成本。
他预计，过去三年该集团已减聘1000名外劳，以每人2000令吉成本计，月节省200万令吉，年省2400万令吉，10年共省2亿4000万令吉。
目前该集团在大马、泰国及中国拥有28间工厂，500条生产线及年产能466亿只手套，在200个国家有2000个顾客。
文章来源：星洲日报‧投资致富‧企业故事‧文：郭晓芳‧2017.01.29
How to be a Super Investor-Summary By Koon Yew Yin
http://koonyewyin.com/2016/11/09/how-to-be-a-super-investor-summary/
My golden rule for share selection: The company must make more profit in the current year than last year and the share is selling less than P/E 10.
Before you buy the share, you must understand the company’s business and the company must make more profit in the last 2 quarters than in the corresponding quarters of last year and you can foresee that the company can make more profit in the current year than last year. Otherwise, the share price will drop if its annual profit is less than last year.
Never buy down trending stock because you do not know when it will reverse its trend so that you to make money.
In the last few years, I have used my golden rule to find Latitude Tree which went up from Rm 1.00 to above Rm 8.00 within 2.5 years. I have also found VS Industry and Lii Hen which went up more than 500% within 2 years.
I have written many articles on share investment which can be found in my blog: koonyewyin.com. The following is a summary of all my articles:
My golden rule for share selection: The company must make more profit in the current year than last year and the share is selling less than P/E 10.
Before you buy the share, you must understand the company’s business and the company must make more profit in the last 2 quarters than in the corresponding quarters of last year and you can foresee that the company can make more profit in the current year than last year. Otherwise, the share price will drop if its annual profit is less than last year.
Never buy down trending stock because you do not know when it will reverse its trend so that you to make money.
In the last few years, I have used my golden rule to find Latitude Tree which went up from Rm 1.00 to above Rm 8.00 within 2.5 years. I have also found VS Industry and Lii Hen which went up more than 500% within 2 years.
I have written many articles on share investment which can be found in my blog: koonyewyin.com. The following is a summary of all my articles:
Factors to be taken into consideration in stock selection
Common mistakes investors make:
How to be a super investor?
Trait 1: Ability to buy stocks while others are panicking and sell stocks while others are euphoric. Be an intelligent contrarian investor.
Useful power plant information:
https://www.quandl.com/collections/markets/coal
- Long-term profit growth prospect (with evidence, not based on hype),
- Current year profit > last year’s profit,
- Low projected P/E (preferably < 10, except large companies) and high ROE,
- Competitive market advantage (good reputation, established records, etc.),
- Financial health status (based on balance sheet, especially cash level),
- Understand the business (know how and where the company’s profit is derived),
- Undervalued,
- Downside is protected,
- Not many analysts write about it (or off their radar),
- Reasonably good dividend (optional),
- Shun stocks in the industry with oversupply problem (i.e. property, oil & gas stocks).
Stock selling criteria/reasons
- The reasons we bought the share are no longer there or valid,
- Raising cash to buy another better stock,
- Fundamentals have changed,
- The company is showing reduced quarterly profit (Q5 & Q6 EPS vs Q1 & Q2 EPS),
- Shares which have gone up too rapidly. If the fundamentals are still intact, buy them back during correction,
- Notes: sometimes it also depends on individual’s knowledge, understanding, experience, holding power, risk appetite and circumstances.
Factors affecting stock price
- Current earnings (or EPS),
- Consistent profit growth (or EPS growth – the most powerful catalyst),
- Issuance of rights (its objectives must be examined carefully),
- Bonus,
- Free warrants,
- Share buyback,
- Share split,
- Financial stability,
- Dividend or distribution announcement,
- Debt level (excessive debt will drive it down),
- Share placement (not more than 10% of the total issued shares),
- Announcement of a new substantial shareholder (acquisition from the open market),
- Business expansion and M&A activities,
- Investor relationship,
- Growth prospects,
- Company’s business model,
- Company directors’ activities,
- Announcement of contracts or awards (progress must be scrutinised),
- Privatisation of the listed company (due diligence must be performed),
- Macro-economic factors (currency exchange rate, political instability, etc.).
Common mistakes investors make:
- Overtrading,
- Speculating,
- Loss aversion (psychological obstacle) – selling winners too early and holding losers too long,
- Anchoring,
- Allowing emotion to overtake logical thinking.
How to be a super investor?
Trait 1: Ability to buy stocks while others are panicking and sell stocks while others are euphoric. Be an intelligent contrarian investor.
Trait 2: A great investor is one who is obsessive about playing the game and wanting to win. These people do not just enjoy investing; they live it.
Trait 3: A good investor is one with willingness to learn from his or her past mistakes and to analyse them.
Trait 4: An inherent sense of risk based on common sense. You must have the common sense to realize the risk of buying any share which has gone up a lot and when all the analysts are recommending buy. Always take an analyst report with a pinch of salt.
Trait 5: Great investors have confidence in their own convictions and stick with them, even when facing criticism.
Trait 6: Ability to think clearly.
Trait 7: Ability to live through volatility without changing your investment thought process.
Useful insights, advice and ideas:
- It is easier for well-managed companies to continue performing than for bad companies to turn around.
- Good management adds value beyond a company’s hard assets. Bad management can destroy even the most solid financials. Good managers act like owners, focus on growing the business and create long-term shareholder value.
- It’s harder for incompetent management to make big mistake, which would affect the bottom line, in a simple business.
- The more complex a business is, the more uncertain our projections will be.
- A stock price will remain cheap if the company continues to make same amount of profit year after year.
- Do not to be discouraged if companies take loan (reasonable amount). It is normal that companies borrow money to do more business.
- Read the company’s commentary on their prospect carefully.
- The normal profit for a fairly good company is between 5-10% per year.
- Focus on the future productivity of the asset you are considering.
- Compare the asset value or market cap of company A with that of its competitors so as to have an idea how much the company is worth.
- Never buy any company share if you do not know what the company is making, who its customers are and who will use its products.
- Not one single strategy can work all the time because all business operations face different challenges at different time.
- Do not worry about the daily price fluctuation of your shares. Games are won by players who focus on the playing field — not by those whose eyes are glued to the scoreboard. If you can enjoy Saturdays and Sundays without looking at stock prices, give it a try on weekdays.
- If you instead focus on the prospective price change of a contemplated purchase, you are speculating.
- Forming macro opinions or listening to the macro or market predictions of others is a waste of time. Indeed, it is dangerous because it may blur your vision of the facts that are truly important.
- To be really successful, one must invest like an entrepreneur and be willing to venture. One must always look at the profit growth prospect of the company.
- Most investors and professionals concentrate too much on fundamental and technical analysis and they do not think like a businessman, but the best way is to invest like a businessman.
- Investment is most intelligent when it is most business-like.
- There is no point in buying a stock based on intrinsic value if the price never reflected that value. Nobody knows how long “the long run” really is. It could be days or years.
- Use the long term price charts to buy shares that have been depressed for a long time.
- If everybody wants a stock, the factors, performance or news must have been reflected in its price and it will be very dangerous to buy at the price.
- The stock market is a zero sum gain play.
- When the price shoots up with very big volume, it means that there are a lot more buyers than sellers.
- Correction is usually less than 10% for really good shares.
- The joy of investing is in finding another better share to buy.
- Buy undervalued shares and take some calculated risk to earn exceptional profit.
- You can still buy the winning horse after the race in the stock market.
- In the stock market, you have to be decisive to buy or sell.
- After an undervalued stock is identified, we have to wait patiently to buy it.
- Do not be afraid to buy when you have found a good one.
- Do not buy down trending stocks because the price can go further down and you will lose money.
- No share can keep climbing up and up indefinitely for whatever reasons and no share will continue to go down for whatever reason.
- We should not be afraid to cut loss as soon as we know that the company cannot make more profit this year than last year because when the company announces reduced profit the price will fall.
- Keep some really good shares for long term to be able to make more money.
- The best way to reduce risk is to own a larger number of counters. Do not put too many eggs in one basket.
- The road to success has many obstacles and the biggest one is fear.
- Most investors overreact to good or bad news.
- To be a successful investor, you must overcome your emotion and be able to think logically.
- What you really need to succeed are EQ, MQ and BQ.
- You don’t need to be an expert in order to achieve satisfactory investment returns.
- Smart contrarian investors do not rush to buy property shares blindly.
- Less intelligent readers often doubt and intelligent readers are more trusting.
- Margin finance to leverage profit. However, novice investors are not encouraged to use margin loan to buy more shares.
- Never buy up to maximum margin limit. Always allow room for safety.
- Any economic storm will pass if the economic fundamentals are strong.
- Never fall in love with the shares you have bought.
- Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.
- Short term traders cannot be rich.
- Success leads to confidence, leads to over confidence, leads to failure seems to be a natural cycle. The only protection is humility.
- Useful plantation industry information:
- Forest clearing duration: 1 – 2 years
- Sowing to pre-fruits bearing duration: 4 years
- Peak production period: year 7 – 18
- Lifespan of oil palm: ≥ 25 years
- Major palm oil producers: Indonesia & Malaysia (accounts for 90% of total palm oil production)
- Major palm oil buyers: China & India
- Edible oil demand growth: 6 million tonne/annum
- Plantation value: RM 70K/ha (in 2013)
- Biodiesel mandate: to use B10 fuel
- Additional info – FFB Yield: 20 – 30 tonne/ha
- Additional info – Yield: 3 – 7 tonne/ha
- Additional info – Yield: soybean – 0.4 tonne/ha, sunflower – 0.6 tonne/ha, canola – 1.2 tonne/ha
- Additional info – Global palm oil consumption: 55 million tonne/annum (32% of global oils and fats outputs)
- Additional info – Oil palm accounts for 5.5% of the global land use for cultivation
- Additional info – CPO price chart: http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=palm-oil
Useful power plant information:
- 1 MW can light up about 1,000 homes
- Average construction cost: USD 1.3 – 1.5 million/MW
- Coal consumption: 4,500 tonne/MW/Year
- Additional info – Coal price chart:
https://www.quandl.com/collections/markets/coal
Friday, January 27, 2017
曾淵滄：特朗普每日出招 美股升不停
http://www.mpfinance.com/fin/columnist2.php?col=1463481132566&node=1485454614549&issue=20170127
文章日期：2017年1月27日
【明報專訊】特朗普概念終於使美國道指衝上兩萬點，創歷史新高。他上任連日來每天簽署數道行政命令，以總統特權繞過國會直接發號施令。他是名很懂得造勢的人，不會一口氣簽太多行政命令，而是每一天每一天的簽，讓新聞逐日逐日的出，每天都有新聞，每天都可刺激股市，來完成他的「特朗普大牛市」，讓股市升到你唔信。去年11月，我可能是特朗普當選後最早預告特朗普牛市的來臨，真的會升到你唔信。踏入2017年，許多人都在擔心逢「7」必災，我則認為「災」前必有大升，無大升何來「災」？
今日剛剛好是特朗普上任一星期，一星期內他分別簽署了多項影響美國經濟、股市的總統行政命令，也自然影響全世界經濟、股市，畢竟，美國是世界第一強國。他簽署的第一道總統行政命令，是廢掉上任總統奧巴馬的全民醫保，這是奧巴馬劫富濟貧的全民福利政策，為此，美國聯邦政府財政負擔不小，現在廢掉了，窮人糟糕了，但國庫開支少了，可用於其他地方。他又退出了《跨太平洋伙伴關係（TPP）》協議，TPP未正式開始執行，因此，對現有經濟影響不大，影響更大的是政治平衡，人人都知TPP另一重要任務是圍堵中國，美國退出，即不圍堵中國了，中國便會乘機崛起，成為全球自由貿易的領導者。
不支持環保 美風電太陽能股遭殃
特朗普又下令重新談判現有與加拿大及墨西哥的貿易協定，對墨西哥打擊很大，但有助重整美國製造業，對其股市有利。不過美國生產成本高，通脹已無可避免，通脹上升，聯儲局會否加快加息以遏抑通脹？這是最難估計的。若特朗普不干預，理論上聯儲局的確應加快加息步伐，但數天前特朗普突然公開說「美元太強」、「不利競爭」，他一句話就打沉了美匯。美元急貶，往後很大程度要看特朗普與耶倫的關係。
特朗普又簽署了鋪設由加拿大至美國石油管道重新開土的命令，這是被奧巴馬叫停的一大工程，原因是環保人士反對，很明顯特朗普是反環保的，今後美國的風電股、太陽能股沒運行了，也影響中國風電、太陽能設備輸出，石油與煤的用途將大大增加，特朗普也為以色列撐腰，中東戰雲突加，石油、黃金價格也會炒上。對了，前天特朗普正式宣布，簽署了在美國與墨西哥邊境建圍牆的行政命令，這是特朗普第一個「偉大」基建，將聘用許多美國工人增加就業機會。
大學教授
[曾淵滄 滄海明珠]
文章日期：2017年1月27日
【明報專訊】特朗普概念終於使美國道指衝上兩萬點，創歷史新高。他上任連日來每天簽署數道行政命令，以總統特權繞過國會直接發號施令。他是名很懂得造勢的人，不會一口氣簽太多行政命令，而是每一天每一天的簽，讓新聞逐日逐日的出，每天都有新聞，每天都可刺激股市，來完成他的「特朗普大牛市」，讓股市升到你唔信。去年11月，我可能是特朗普當選後最早預告特朗普牛市的來臨，真的會升到你唔信。踏入2017年，許多人都在擔心逢「7」必災，我則認為「災」前必有大升，無大升何來「災」？
今日剛剛好是特朗普上任一星期，一星期內他分別簽署了多項影響美國經濟、股市的總統行政命令，也自然影響全世界經濟、股市，畢竟，美國是世界第一強國。他簽署的第一道總統行政命令，是廢掉上任總統奧巴馬的全民醫保，這是奧巴馬劫富濟貧的全民福利政策，為此，美國聯邦政府財政負擔不小，現在廢掉了，窮人糟糕了，但國庫開支少了，可用於其他地方。他又退出了《跨太平洋伙伴關係（TPP）》協議，TPP未正式開始執行，因此，對現有經濟影響不大，影響更大的是政治平衡，人人都知TPP另一重要任務是圍堵中國，美國退出，即不圍堵中國了，中國便會乘機崛起，成為全球自由貿易的領導者。
不支持環保 美風電太陽能股遭殃
特朗普又下令重新談判現有與加拿大及墨西哥的貿易協定，對墨西哥打擊很大，但有助重整美國製造業，對其股市有利。不過美國生產成本高，通脹已無可避免，通脹上升，聯儲局會否加快加息以遏抑通脹？這是最難估計的。若特朗普不干預，理論上聯儲局的確應加快加息步伐，但數天前特朗普突然公開說「美元太強」、「不利競爭」，他一句話就打沉了美匯。美元急貶，往後很大程度要看特朗普與耶倫的關係。
特朗普又簽署了鋪設由加拿大至美國石油管道重新開土的命令，這是被奧巴馬叫停的一大工程，原因是環保人士反對，很明顯特朗普是反環保的，今後美國的風電股、太陽能股沒運行了，也影響中國風電、太陽能設備輸出，石油與煤的用途將大大增加，特朗普也為以色列撐腰，中東戰雲突加，石油、黃金價格也會炒上。對了，前天特朗普正式宣布，簽署了在美國與墨西哥邊境建圍牆的行政命令，這是特朗普第一個「偉大」基建，將聘用許多美國工人增加就業機會。
大學教授
[曾淵滄 滄海明珠]
Thursday, January 26, 2017
安吉雅 Ajiya：崭新的绿色综合建筑系统 AGIBS 搭载一马房屋PR1MA的船
Author: kakashit | Publish date: Thu, 26 Jan 2017, 12:18 AM
现在大家都懂令吉狂贬，4.5令吉兑1美元已是创18年来的新低。
投资者一定以为很好，对出口股有利。
问题是我们出口的是劳工密集的行业如手套、家私、棕油，而这些行业本地人都不敢，必须大量依靠来自印尼、孟加拉、尼泊尔的外劳。随着马币持续贬值，汇回国的辛苦钱大量缩水，外劳留马工作的意愿肯定大大降低。
九成依赖外劳的建筑业更是如此，不提高薪资外劳就不会来，提高薪资就肯定会加重成本。
话说回来，所有PR1MA一马房屋皆以低于市价20%出售。截止2016年尾，已建11千个单位，共有233千个单位已获批准建造，其中有65千建造当中。基本上所有单位已经被抢爆了。
对于承包商来说，可负担房屋的赚幅顶多是10%而已，要保持赚幅只能向建筑材料着手。
可负担房屋要低于市价出售又要有利可图，必须要有一套异于传统的建造方式。安吉雅的绿色综合系统（AGIBS）正正能够提供这项解决方案。
一间屋子通常需时两年来完成，但是有了agibs，可缩短至8个月。而且建筑成本仅需80千令吉，透过大量生产更可拉低成本，基本上这是一项革命性的技术。
安吉雅可以为建筑一间屋子提供一条龙的服务，基本上建造房子必须用到的材料安吉雅都能提供。
安吉雅设定的初始建造时间是8个月，然后慢慢缩短至6个月，然后是4个月。从打好地基到屋顶给建好，甚至是一个月就能搞掂。无论是钥匙移交期，建筑与劳工成本都会大大降低。
首相拿督斯里纳吉曾表示，IBS将会是建筑业的未来，建筑业必须给予全面支持，以让大马实现2020年先进国宏愿。
为了达到这个目标，政府也规定所有价格超过1千万令吉的政府工程，以及价格超过5千万令吉的私人发展计划都必须采用工业化建筑系统，以便达致70点的工业化建筑系统分数。
读者可以把这个崭新的概念想象成IKEA的家私，所有家私的原件已经标准化，只需简单组装便可。因为所有材料成本可以被估算，大大降低原料价浮动的不确定性。
该系统的特点在于快速组装，并减少重型机械的使用率。也就是工地不再需要那么多的神手，水泥车等。
AGIBS系统涵盖八大组件，请看图：
安吉雅的目标是成为全马及东南亚的一站式可负担和快捷的综合建筑方案供应商。
经过20来年的深耕，安吉雅巩固其金属卷材和安全玻璃的领导者地位，处于我国与泰国市场的领导者地位。其产品适用于各种商业大楼与住宅。
大本营位于柔佛昔加末，至今，安吉雅在全马各地及泰南拥有19间厂房与货仓设施。
我们看看有什么客户会跟Ajiya拿货，从客户的Profile就能大概知道一间公司的的产品是否可靠。
金属卷材业务
"During the year, the metal division was engaged in a number of mega projects, including the Customs,
Immigration and Quarantine Building in Langkawi, the Royal Malaysian
Airforce hangar in Subang, Ipoh Padang Besar Electrified Double
Track Project, as well as Country Garden Danga Bay and Eco Business Park both in Johor Bahru." --AR2015
安全玻璃业务
"During the year, the glass division successfully participated in prestigious projects such as the Sunway Velocity integrated development, Glomac’s Reflection residences, the Public Mutual Building, UOA-V38, Jakim Putrajaya, MITI building, AraGreens residences - Phase 1, M City residential suites and Icon City residences" -- AR2015"
安吉雅的客户涵盖公私领域，都是与大咖合作，20年的根基可不是盖滴哦。
Ajiya的竞争对手应该就是来马拉西亚插旗的中国建商。除了铁之外， 基本上所有建材都可以就地取材，安吉雅占有这方面的本土优势。
财务状况
营运现金流和负债率处于良好的水平，看来安吉雅可以靠内部资金来发展AGIBS的业务。
去年8月发行的凭单行使价定在92仙，距离现在的股价71仙还有约三成的距离，这是管理层纯粹回馈给股东的甜品，而不是急着要跟股东凑钱，无须担心母股会被稀释。
去年给了5仙的利息，股价70仙，有7.1%的周息率。积极扩张的同时，也是个肯跟小股东分享利润的公司。
以现在的股价70仙对净有形资产1.07令吉共折价30%，我认为是进场的好机会。
由于安吉雅是制造业公司，而不是建筑业公司，所以不能够公开订单额或者拿到什么合约。
本益比13倍看似很贵，所以只能看新闻与市场的动向来推断安吉雅的蛋糕有多大。
新闻：
安吉雅将与IMAG发展建筑公司（IMAG）合作争取建设砂拉越古晋的一马房屋计划（PR1MA）。
（吉隆坡25日讯）安吉雅（AJIYA，7609，主板工业产品组）与榕钢控股（YKGI，7020，主板工业产品组）签署备忘录（MOU），为建立长期策略性业务伙伴关系铺路。
想要了解更多的话，可以查看安吉雅的企业介绍短片：
Ajiya Corporate Video
Ajiya IBS Green (Enduroframe)
Author: kakashit | Publish date: Thu, 26 Jan 2017, 12:18 AM
现在大家都懂令吉狂贬，4.5令吉兑1美元已是创18年来的新低。
投资者一定以为很好，对出口股有利。
问题是我们出口的是劳工密集的行业如手套、家私、棕油，而这些行业本地人都不敢，必须大量依靠来自印尼、孟加拉、尼泊尔的外劳。随着马币持续贬值，汇回国的辛苦钱大量缩水，外劳留马工作的意愿肯定大大降低。
九成依赖外劳的建筑业更是如此，不提高薪资外劳就不会来，提高薪资就肯定会加重成本。
话说回来，所有PR1MA一马房屋皆以低于市价20%出售。截止2016年尾，已建11千个单位，共有233千个单位已获批准建造，其中有65千建造当中。基本上所有单位已经被抢爆了。
对于承包商来说，可负担房屋的赚幅顶多是10%而已，要保持赚幅只能向建筑材料着手。
可负担房屋要低于市价出售又要有利可图，必须要有一套异于传统的建造方式。安吉雅的绿色综合系统（AGIBS）正正能够提供这项解决方案。
一间屋子通常需时两年来完成，但是有了agibs，可缩短至8个月。而且建筑成本仅需80千令吉，透过大量生产更可拉低成本，基本上这是一项革命性的技术。
安吉雅可以为建筑一间屋子提供一条龙的服务，基本上建造房子必须用到的材料安吉雅都能提供。
安吉雅设定的初始建造时间是8个月，然后慢慢缩短至6个月，然后是4个月。从打好地基到屋顶给建好，甚至是一个月就能搞掂。无论是钥匙移交期，建筑与劳工成本都会大大降低。
首相拿督斯里纳吉曾表示，IBS将会是建筑业的未来，建筑业必须给予全面支持，以让大马实现2020年先进国宏愿。
为了达到这个目标，政府也规定所有价格超过1千万令吉的政府工程，以及价格超过5千万令吉的私人发展计划都必须采用工业化建筑系统，以便达致70点的工业化建筑系统分数。
读者可以把这个崭新的概念想象成IKEA的家私，所有家私的原件已经标准化，只需简单组装便可。因为所有材料成本可以被估算，大大降低原料价浮动的不确定性。
该系统的特点在于快速组装，并减少重型机械的使用率。也就是工地不再需要那么多的神手，水泥车等。
AGIBS系统涵盖八大组件，请看图：
安吉雅的目标是成为全马及东南亚的一站式可负担和快捷的综合建筑方案供应商。
经过20来年的深耕，安吉雅巩固其金属卷材和安全玻璃的领导者地位，处于我国与泰国市场的领导者地位。其产品适用于各种商业大楼与住宅。
大本营位于柔佛昔加末，至今，安吉雅在全马各地及泰南拥有19间厂房与货仓设施。
我们看看有什么客户会跟Ajiya拿货，从客户的Profile就能大概知道一间公司的的产品是否可靠。
金属卷材业务
"During the year, the metal division was engaged in a number of mega projects, including the Customs,
Immigration and Quarantine Building in Langkawi, the Royal Malaysian
Airforce hangar in Subang, Ipoh Padang Besar Electrified Double
Track Project, as well as Country Garden Danga Bay and Eco Business Park both in Johor Bahru." --AR2015
安全玻璃业务
"During the year, the glass division successfully participated in prestigious projects such as the Sunway Velocity integrated development, Glomac’s Reflection residences, the Public Mutual Building, UOA-V38, Jakim Putrajaya, MITI building, AraGreens residences - Phase 1, M City residential suites and Icon City residences" -- AR2015"
安吉雅的客户涵盖公私领域，都是与大咖合作，20年的根基可不是盖滴哦。
Ajiya的竞争对手应该就是来马拉西亚插旗的中国建商。除了铁之外， 基本上所有建材都可以就地取材，安吉雅占有这方面的本土优势。
财务状况
营运现金流和负债率处于良好的水平，看来安吉雅可以靠内部资金来发展AGIBS的业务。
去年8月发行的凭单行使价定在92仙，距离现在的股价71仙还有约三成的距离，这是管理层纯粹回馈给股东的甜品，而不是急着要跟股东凑钱，无须担心母股会被稀释。
去年给了5仙的利息，股价70仙，有7.1%的周息率。积极扩张的同时，也是个肯跟小股东分享利润的公司。
以现在的股价70仙对净有形资产1.07令吉共折价30%，我认为是进场的好机会。
由于安吉雅是制造业公司，而不是建筑业公司，所以不能够公开订单额或者拿到什么合约。
本益比13倍看似很贵，所以只能看新闻与市场的动向来推断安吉雅的蛋糕有多大。
新闻：
安吉雅将与IMAG发展建筑公司（IMAG）合作争取建设砂拉越古晋的一马房屋计划（PR1MA）。
（吉隆坡25日讯）安吉雅（AJIYA，7609，主板工业产品组）与榕钢控股（YKGI，7020，主板工业产品组）签署备忘录（MOU），为建立长期策略性业务伙伴关系铺路。
想要了解更多的话，可以查看安吉雅的企业介绍短片：
Ajiya Corporate Video
Ajiya IBS Green (Enduroframe)
嘉登全年展望看好．须争取新建筑订单
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Thu, 26 Jan 2017, 05:10 PM
2017-01-26 17:07
（吉隆坡26日讯）嘉登控股（GADANG，9261，主板建筑组）建筑及房产业务表现符合预测，分析员看好全年展望之余，暗存新建筑订单不如预期的疑虑。
根据艾毕斯研究，该集团房产业务取得增长42.6%的税前盈利增长，而建筑业务也因项目及工程变更已完成，而涨82.7%，按季而言表现可谓强劲，上半年计达该行预测中的34%及55.8%。
建筑业务方面，该集团截至2016年11月杪，订单总值报5亿2720万令吉。
达证券说，该集团目前正探索捷运二线、轻快铁三线等项目，因此预计2017财政年订单可持于5亿令吉，但若不达标，该行考虑将该集团2017至2019财政年收益预测下调4.5%、12.7%、11.4%。
艾毕斯则认为，目前订单可为该集团贡献至少1.1年营收。依该集团对政府基建及建筑项目的筛选来看，该行为该集团2017财政年衡量3亿令吉的建筑订单目标。
至于该公司房产业务，达证券说，未入账销售额已由2亿2100万令吉按季减至1亿8720万令吉。
推赛城一马房屋双层排屋
该行估计，该集团即将在2017财政年末季所推出赛城一马房屋（PR1MA）以及双层排屋，可再推高房产销售额。
这加上预计今年杪推出的蒲种Putra Perdana联营项目，JF Apex证券认为，该集团可在疲弱的产业领域中不受动摇。
该集团的桂沙白沙罗市镇发展计划，最早2019年可推出部份项目。尽管艾毕斯认为，该集团可藉此加以巩固领域地位，惟收益只可最早体现于2019财政年业绩。
艾毕斯表示，该集团可负担房产业务符合市场需求，且仍有未入账销售，这再加上炼油及石油化工综合发展项目（RAPID），及巴生河流域捷运二线（KVMRT2）建筑或归该集团所属，乐观看待多元化业务前景。
水力发电业务方面，艾毕斯指出，水价料在近期内再作调整，加上微型水电厂的特许建造将在2019年中完工，料可正面贡献于该集团收益。
嘉登受强劲业绩表现带动，周四一度走高至1令吉10仙，最终以1令吉零7仙挂收，全天涨4仙。
文章来源：星洲日报‧财经‧报道：陈学颖‧2017.01.26
http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1609477/%E5%98%89%E7%99%BB%E5%85%A8%E5%B9%B4%E5%B1%95%E6%9C%9B%E7%9C%8B%E5%A5%BD%EF%BC%8E%E9%A1%BB%E4%BA%89%E5%8F%96%E6%96%B0%E5%BB%BA%E7%AD%91%E8%AE%A2%E5%8D%95
Cypark资源 放眼更多合约
61点看 2017年1月26日
分析：大众投行
目标价：2.64令吉
最新进展:
Cypark资源（CYPARK，5184，主板贸服股）获得国家固体垃圾管理局（JPSPN）颁发合约，总值1519万2980令吉。
根据合约，Cypark资源将在森美兰州汝来，负责设计、建造和完成垃圾填埋场的项目，为期14个月，竣工日期预计为2018年4月3日。
行家建议:
这是个正面发展，因可让Cypark资源增加更多的太阳能产能。目前，Cypark资源在毗邻该地皮已经有一个13兆瓦的厂房，可进一步增强再生能源业务的未来净利。
我们保持财测不变，因这已被纳入在新增订单的预测中。
我们持续看好该股在绿色科技的领先地位和专业技术，并预计再生能源业务净利在2018财年起会有所改善。
这还归功于生物质能和沼气的额外收入，因Ladang Tanah Merah环境工程项目将在年杪竣工。
我们维持“超越大市”评级，和2.64令吉的目标价格。
值得注意的是，能源委员会已推介大型太阳能（LSS）项目，并会在今年至2020年间，每年颁出200兆瓦的竞标项目。
我们相信，Cypark资源凭着太阳能园的发展商兼营运商的身分，以及技术和经验，仍有机会取得部分LSS合约。
分析：大众投行
目标价：2.64令吉
最新进展:
Cypark资源（CYPARK，5184，主板贸服股）获得国家固体垃圾管理局（JPSPN）颁发合约，总值1519万2980令吉。
根据合约，Cypark资源将在森美兰州汝来，负责设计、建造和完成垃圾填埋场的项目，为期14个月，竣工日期预计为2018年4月3日。
行家建议:
这是个正面发展，因可让Cypark资源增加更多的太阳能产能。目前，Cypark资源在毗邻该地皮已经有一个13兆瓦的厂房，可进一步增强再生能源业务的未来净利。
我们保持财测不变，因这已被纳入在新增订单的预测中。
我们持续看好该股在绿色科技的领先地位和专业技术，并预计再生能源业务净利在2018财年起会有所改善。
这还归功于生物质能和沼气的额外收入，因Ladang Tanah Merah环境工程项目将在年杪竣工。
我们维持“超越大市”评级，和2.64令吉的目标价格。
值得注意的是，能源委员会已推介大型太阳能（LSS）项目，并会在今年至2020年间，每年颁出200兆瓦的竞标项目。
我们相信，Cypark资源凭着太阳能园的发展商兼营运商的身分，以及技术和经验，仍有机会取得部分LSS合约。
林苑莉：培養思考能力勝富養 教孩子分配利市錢學理財
【明報專訊】新年將至，為人父母應該如何教育小朋友，善用拜年時收到的利市錢呢？香港金融理財知識和能力策略大使、本身亦育有兩子的林苑莉認為，理財需要教育及實踐，如何處理利市錢就是學習機會之一，「家長只能夠做協助角色，而不是幫他們全權管理。可以教他們分開儲蓄、花費、分享三部分，最重要的是在理財過程當中，培養思考做決定的能力」。
林苑莉現時開設主打數學的補習社，從中六開始補習賺錢，更專門向難度挑戰，矢志教導那些提不起興趣學習的「富二代」。這些經歷讓她感受到，對兒童的成長而言，資源並不是愈多愈好，反而需要讓他們懂得管理自己的資源，「就好像開車，你一定要揸最不好的車，重要的是技術要好。如果你懂得理財，即使錢不多，但懂得運用都可以再滾大，反而如果有一大筆錢但不懂運用，對小朋友不是好事」。
理財如開車 最重要技術好
讓兒童學習理財，主要目標就是讓他們培養延遲滿足（delay gratification）與推演事情發展的能力。她認為學習理財與「棉花糖實驗（Mashmallow test）」相似，例子當中實驗人員將一顆棉花糖放在小朋友面前，然後告訴小朋友你可以立刻吃掉，但只要等候若干時間，就能夠獲得多一顆棉花糖。研究追蹤這些接受實驗的小朋友發現，能夠等候時間以獲取第二顆棉花糖的小朋友，長大後平均有較大的成就。她表示：「就好似如果你儲多一陣，就可以買到一對波鞋，這種能力對小朋友來說很重要。」
3透明玻璃瓶規定用途
她表示，兒童的理財觀念，從懂得數數字開始已經可以融入日常生活中。她為兩個一歲半和六歲的兒子分別預備3個透明玻璃瓶，分別寫上「saving（儲蓄）」、「spending（花費）」和「sharing（分享）」，並規定在某個界線以下的儲蓄不能使用。你可能會懷疑，一歲半的小孩子也懂得理財？但林苑莉表示：「每晚臨睡前他們都鍾意自己去樽附近巡視一圈，歲半細仔比較蠱惑，會將哥哥樽入面的錢擺入自己個樽。」她表示，理財在香港的學校課程中暫時沒有太大的篇幅提及，家長的以身作則就成為了孩子最重要的學習途徑。林苑莉現在亦會在家以身作則，「例如每晚我畀一蚊我細仔儲，然後我又會在隔籬樽儲10元，等他看到媽媽都同他一樣有儲蓄」。
讓小孩有管理金錢機會
她表示，教育孩子理財並不等於要他們成為守財奴，反而在預算中有「分享」的一項，可以用於和朋友社交或捐助有需要的機構，「如果小朋友想捐錢去慈善機構，我會問他為何這樣做，可以幫到什麼人，到小五、小六的學生甚至可以叫他們看一些相關報道，知道某些機構原來未必真的將善款全數捐助有需要人士，他們就會學懂分辨」。她認為，要讓小孩在生活上有管理金錢的機會，所以即使小兒子只有一歲半，仍然會每天給他1元作零用錢，讓他從小建立理財習慣，有需要時不會只懂伸手向父母拿錢。
明報記者 蘇樂恩
[蘇樂恩 理財專題]
林苑莉現時開設主打數學的補習社，從中六開始補習賺錢，更專門向難度挑戰，矢志教導那些提不起興趣學習的「富二代」。這些經歷讓她感受到，對兒童的成長而言，資源並不是愈多愈好，反而需要讓他們懂得管理自己的資源，「就好像開車，你一定要揸最不好的車，重要的是技術要好。如果你懂得理財，即使錢不多，但懂得運用都可以再滾大，反而如果有一大筆錢但不懂運用，對小朋友不是好事」。
理財如開車 最重要技術好
讓兒童學習理財，主要目標就是讓他們培養延遲滿足（delay gratification）與推演事情發展的能力。她認為學習理財與「棉花糖實驗（Mashmallow test）」相似，例子當中實驗人員將一顆棉花糖放在小朋友面前，然後告訴小朋友你可以立刻吃掉，但只要等候若干時間，就能夠獲得多一顆棉花糖。研究追蹤這些接受實驗的小朋友發現，能夠等候時間以獲取第二顆棉花糖的小朋友，長大後平均有較大的成就。她表示：「就好似如果你儲多一陣，就可以買到一對波鞋，這種能力對小朋友來說很重要。」
3透明玻璃瓶規定用途
她表示，兒童的理財觀念，從懂得數數字開始已經可以融入日常生活中。她為兩個一歲半和六歲的兒子分別預備3個透明玻璃瓶，分別寫上「saving（儲蓄）」、「spending（花費）」和「sharing（分享）」，並規定在某個界線以下的儲蓄不能使用。你可能會懷疑，一歲半的小孩子也懂得理財？但林苑莉表示：「每晚臨睡前他們都鍾意自己去樽附近巡視一圈，歲半細仔比較蠱惑，會將哥哥樽入面的錢擺入自己個樽。」她表示，理財在香港的學校課程中暫時沒有太大的篇幅提及，家長的以身作則就成為了孩子最重要的學習途徑。林苑莉現在亦會在家以身作則，「例如每晚我畀一蚊我細仔儲，然後我又會在隔籬樽儲10元，等他看到媽媽都同他一樣有儲蓄」。
讓小孩有管理金錢機會
她表示，教育孩子理財並不等於要他們成為守財奴，反而在預算中有「分享」的一項，可以用於和朋友社交或捐助有需要的機構，「如果小朋友想捐錢去慈善機構，我會問他為何這樣做，可以幫到什麼人，到小五、小六的學生甚至可以叫他們看一些相關報道，知道某些機構原來未必真的將善款全數捐助有需要人士，他們就會學懂分辨」。她認為，要讓小孩在生活上有管理金錢的機會，所以即使小兒子只有一歲半，仍然會每天給他1元作零用錢，讓他從小建立理財習慣，有需要時不會只懂伸手向父母拿錢。
明報記者 蘇樂恩
[蘇樂恩 理財專題]
T. Harv Eker - The Secret To A Successful Negotiation Without Taking Anything Away From The Other Person
http://www.harveker.com/2017/01/24/secret-successful-negotiation-without-taking-anything-away-person/
I always get asked about how to successfully negotiate without feeling like you’re taking advantage of the person you’re negotiating with.
Firstly, why is negotiating important?
Whether you realize it or not in business or in life you are always negotiating.
If you are a poor negotiator, you’ll spend a fortune.
If you are a good negotiator, you’ll save a fortune.
If you are a great negotiator, you’ll make a fortune.
Negotiation is a critical, critical skill.
Now, how do you negotiate a win-win situation?
How do you get what you want…without taking away what the other party wants?
For example, if someone wants to get more money, but I want to pay less, how do you make it work for both of us?
The problem that many people have is, they think that it’s a zero sum game. They think, “There’s one pie, so if I get fewer pieces, that means you get more.”
No. That is not how I teach the art of negotiation.
Instead of having a set amount of pieces in your pie—which inevitably leads to a feeling of scarcity—you just change the pie completely. Perhaps you now have an apple pie, cheesecake, chocolate donut… basically, whatever it is you both want.
Stick with me here—I’ll explain what I mean.
Have you ever heard the saying, “Different strokes for different folks?” This saying speaks to the fact that everyone values things differently, and everyone has different beliefs about what is important (or not).
The beauty is, this means everyone can get what they want—you just need to know what it is.
It’s true: when you negotiate, the most important thing is to find out what’s important to the other party. You already know what’s important to you—so no work is needed there.
Let me give you an example. Let’s say, at your company, you’re trying to pay less for a service or product. The party in question says they will charge $1,000. You say you just want to pay $700. So what’s the action there?
Just because you said you wanted $700 doesn’t mean they have to give it to you. This is why you need to have a rationale. So instead, in your discussion, you might find out that they were burnt last time by a company that they gave 60 days credit to and—they didn’t get paid. Perhaps they’ve been burnt several times.
This is where you need to think laterally.
Instead of simply focusing on closing the price gap, you could arrange to pay the $700 immediately, as opposed to in 30 or 60 days as is standard—thereby benefitting them with a speedy payment, while still paying a lower price.
See, that’s what they want. You give them what they want, they give you what you want. It’s not about taking anything away from them (or from you).
The point is, you just need to provide them with the value they’re looking for.
It’s about being creative and adding to both your lives, instead of minus-ing. If you do, you will make—and save—a lot of money.
Simply by asking some questions first and finding out what is good for the other party, you can easily create a win-win situation for everyone involved.
How do you practice negotiation? Do you have advice for reaching a win-win outcome? Share your experiences and thoughts in the comments below!
Tharp Think Helps Create Great Trading Systems
Feature Article
http://newsletter.vantharp.com/public/viewmessage/html/10920/55uouqeti961fpl6a7o67kjkwy1ji
Tharp Think Helps Create Great Trading Systems
by Gabriel Grammatidis
In his various publications and workshops, Van stresses a set of important trading fundamentals that he calls “Tharp Think.” Tharp Think is a set of ideas and principles that he has found successful traders apply consistently. Some of them you have heard or read in other places but others I have only heard from Van. Having been in close contact with Van for many years now, I have experienced the usefulness of his principles first hand in many areas including when it came time to build my own trading systems for the Forex market. Van defined two areas of Tharp Think principles as (1) The Psychology of Trading and (2) System Development. Psychology and Trading Systems, however, are actually two sides of the same coin. How is that?
Having many useful beliefs about the markets and trading is not enough to make you a good trader — you also need a trading system with an edge. The corollary is also true; simply having a good trading system will not allow you to trade well — you also need useful beliefs about the markets, trading, and yourself (your psychology). You will be able to trade a system well if your beliefs align with the beliefs of the trading system. For example, if you are a band trader, you have many ideas about how prices move in relation to band but you may have great difficulties trying to trade a trend-following system. Your beliefs about the reasons and the ways price move are very different between these two kinds of traders and trading systems. The right system for the right trader, however, will work fine. Both band systems and trending systems work in the markets. Aligning underlying beliefs both about yourself and about your trading system is crucial if you want to be able to trade well.
Build A Great Low-Risk Idea — With A Useful Set of Beliefs
Every trading system rests on a set of beliefs — whether the trader and/or system developer realizes this or not. You gain your first edge by simply being aware of the underlying beliefs of a trading system. A great system has many useful beliefs about the market and price behavior that create an edge — it also creates positive expectancy. As an example, trading against the crowd in certain circumstances can be an edge. Applying those beliefs about why that works by developing a trading system that generates a positive expectancy is an edge — the advantages your system has in the market. You want to find and develop an edge (or several) for each of your trading systems.
Based on your beliefs about the market and price behavior (edges), you can then define a set of clear rules for the trade setup. Here, the necessary setup conditions as well as the entry rules and initial stop strategy are solidified to define a low-risk trade so your system can reap the benefits of the core beliefs that form your edge. From there, you would add other important trading components such as the exit rules, filters and the position sizing strategy.
Tharp Think In Practice
I have developed all of my Forex trading systems aligned with Van’s Tharp Think principles. Why? I have simply found that what Van teaches works very well in the markets. Van will teach his Tharp Think principles in the February Peak 101 workshop and I will teach how those principles apply in the Forex market with working trading systems — all using Tharp Think principles. For each of the three systems I teach, I provide the full set of beliefs behind the system, the specific market edges, the full detailed ruleset, and all other important system components (e.g. exit algorithms). You will need to know all this before you can fully “own” a system. Typically, however, you won’t get these elements reading blogs or buying a black box “system” off of the internet that tells you to buy on the green arrows and sell on the red arrows. Only when you know what the system is about and understand why it works will you start to be able to fully identify yourself with it — to truly own it. Once you do, then it becomes possible to flawlessly execute the system in an unconscious competent manner.
In addition to learning the Tharp Think principles, beliefs, rules, etc. for each Forex system, attendees will have a practical “hands on” training session. During a group simulation, we look for the patterns to trade the rules with charts as if live — using recent historical Forex data. This training includes spotting the setups as they develop in the charts, stalking for a proper entry, setting the initial stop, calculating the appropriate position sizing strategy, and applying the exit rules. All those elements correctly and consistently are important tasks for executing any trading a system if you have any hope of success. Finally, we will step together through my personal trading preparation process that I perform on a daily basis to mentally prepare for a successful trading day — which is — another Tharp Think principle.
During the Live Trading Workshop, you will deepen your understanding in all those areas in a live market environment.
Trading well is one of the most difficult tasks you are probably ever going to try to learn. If you have figured that out, help decrease the amount of time and increase the probability of reaching a consistent level of trading success with some of the best trading education in the world — for trading fundamentals and Forex trading.
Start evolving in your trading expertise and prepare accordingly for your success!
Good trading,
Gabriel Grammatidis
Note:
Current markets are getting more and more volatile (for recommendations to reduce your risk see Walk Away from The Shell Game to Play more Profitable Games, #746
For a detailed description on System development, see Gabriel’s article in the Traders’ Magazine below “How to Develop Your Trading System.” This article refers to the development of System1: Busted Breakout.
As well see Gabriel’s 2nd article in Traders’ Magazine “Become a Hunter” that describes the Psychology of Trading of System1 as well as its’ rule-set (not the full ruleset taught in the coming workshop).
http://newsletter.vantharp.com/public/viewmessage/html/10920/55uouqeti961fpl6a7o67kjkwy1ji
Tharp Think Helps Create Great Trading Systems
by Gabriel Grammatidis
In his various publications and workshops, Van stresses a set of important trading fundamentals that he calls “Tharp Think.” Tharp Think is a set of ideas and principles that he has found successful traders apply consistently. Some of them you have heard or read in other places but others I have only heard from Van. Having been in close contact with Van for many years now, I have experienced the usefulness of his principles first hand in many areas including when it came time to build my own trading systems for the Forex market. Van defined two areas of Tharp Think principles as (1) The Psychology of Trading and (2) System Development. Psychology and Trading Systems, however, are actually two sides of the same coin. How is that?
Having many useful beliefs about the markets and trading is not enough to make you a good trader — you also need a trading system with an edge. The corollary is also true; simply having a good trading system will not allow you to trade well — you also need useful beliefs about the markets, trading, and yourself (your psychology). You will be able to trade a system well if your beliefs align with the beliefs of the trading system. For example, if you are a band trader, you have many ideas about how prices move in relation to band but you may have great difficulties trying to trade a trend-following system. Your beliefs about the reasons and the ways price move are very different between these two kinds of traders and trading systems. The right system for the right trader, however, will work fine. Both band systems and trending systems work in the markets. Aligning underlying beliefs both about yourself and about your trading system is crucial if you want to be able to trade well.
Build A Great Low-Risk Idea — With A Useful Set of Beliefs
Every trading system rests on a set of beliefs — whether the trader and/or system developer realizes this or not. You gain your first edge by simply being aware of the underlying beliefs of a trading system. A great system has many useful beliefs about the market and price behavior that create an edge — it also creates positive expectancy. As an example, trading against the crowd in certain circumstances can be an edge. Applying those beliefs about why that works by developing a trading system that generates a positive expectancy is an edge — the advantages your system has in the market. You want to find and develop an edge (or several) for each of your trading systems.
Based on your beliefs about the market and price behavior (edges), you can then define a set of clear rules for the trade setup. Here, the necessary setup conditions as well as the entry rules and initial stop strategy are solidified to define a low-risk trade so your system can reap the benefits of the core beliefs that form your edge. From there, you would add other important trading components such as the exit rules, filters and the position sizing strategy.
Tharp Think In Practice
I have developed all of my Forex trading systems aligned with Van’s Tharp Think principles. Why? I have simply found that what Van teaches works very well in the markets. Van will teach his Tharp Think principles in the February Peak 101 workshop and I will teach how those principles apply in the Forex market with working trading systems — all using Tharp Think principles. For each of the three systems I teach, I provide the full set of beliefs behind the system, the specific market edges, the full detailed ruleset, and all other important system components (e.g. exit algorithms). You will need to know all this before you can fully “own” a system. Typically, however, you won’t get these elements reading blogs or buying a black box “system” off of the internet that tells you to buy on the green arrows and sell on the red arrows. Only when you know what the system is about and understand why it works will you start to be able to fully identify yourself with it — to truly own it. Once you do, then it becomes possible to flawlessly execute the system in an unconscious competent manner.
In addition to learning the Tharp Think principles, beliefs, rules, etc. for each Forex system, attendees will have a practical “hands on” training session. During a group simulation, we look for the patterns to trade the rules with charts as if live — using recent historical Forex data. This training includes spotting the setups as they develop in the charts, stalking for a proper entry, setting the initial stop, calculating the appropriate position sizing strategy, and applying the exit rules. All those elements correctly and consistently are important tasks for executing any trading a system if you have any hope of success. Finally, we will step together through my personal trading preparation process that I perform on a daily basis to mentally prepare for a successful trading day — which is — another Tharp Think principle.
During the Live Trading Workshop, you will deepen your understanding in all those areas in a live market environment.
Trading well is one of the most difficult tasks you are probably ever going to try to learn. If you have figured that out, help decrease the amount of time and increase the probability of reaching a consistent level of trading success with some of the best trading education in the world — for trading fundamentals and Forex trading.
Start evolving in your trading expertise and prepare accordingly for your success!
Good trading,
Gabriel Grammatidis
Note:
Current markets are getting more and more volatile (for recommendations to reduce your risk see Walk Away from The Shell Game to Play more Profitable Games, #746
For a detailed description on System development, see Gabriel’s article in the Traders’ Magazine below “How to Develop Your Trading System.” This article refers to the development of System1: Busted Breakout.
As well see Gabriel’s 2nd article in Traders’ Magazine “Become a Hunter” that describes the Psychology of Trading of System1 as well as its’ rule-set (not the full ruleset taught in the coming workshop).
教師夫婦30歲退休 因為及早買樓
教師夫婦30歲退休 因為及早買樓
生活逼人，香港人只能做到老、學到老，然而外國年輕人退休個案卻愈來愈多，最過份係近年有對外國教師夫婦，打工8年，還埋學生貸款，已經搵夠退休⋯
呢兩公婆，就係Joe同Ali，2004年喺學校認識，結咗婚後，一齊去Las Vegas教書。當時一家零資產，無人無物，有嘅，就只有一雙手，結果，卻畀佢今日做到財務自由，環遊世界。
點解可以做到？先由Las Vegas講起吧，據佢哋講，所謂第一桶金，都係慳番嚟，喺Las Vegas打工，生活成本低，除咗住間細嘅apartment，兩公婆仲好少出街食，更少請人食飯，久而久之，兩公婆得以將75%收入儲起，然後再投資滾存。
儲起75%收入
人工得咁多，點樣可以搵多啲？佢哋話，少數宜長計，私下教兼職，一個summer搵唔少。假設一家年收入係35000蚊美金，如果一年靠兼職搵多3500蚊，即係收入大增一成﹗抱住呢種諗法，佢哋兩公婆最盡令年收入大增五成，加上節衣縮食，財源就慢慢廣進。
2008年，佢哋見個樓市都跌咗兩年半，終於決定唔觀望，買入12萬美元市值嘅樓（兩萬美元作首期），成為第一個收租物業，樓價中途跌過，但坐貨唔等於蝕錢，兩公婆忍到兩年後出手，賣36萬美金，於是，咁又多咗退休「子彈」。
佢哋話，就算樓價跌，因為租金收入都仲係多過按揭供款，所以買樓點都有賺。就係因為佢哋成功將「買好過租」實踐，最終持有過15個收租物業，偏佈 Michigan、Vermont呢啲地區（三分之一喺Vegas），生活基本無憂。部份物業更於2013年因為巴菲特一句「要買家庭式住宅」而被帶旺，後來有對沖基金入市推高樓價，得以升值。
（圖片：Joe同Ali，想去邊就去邊。）
時至今日，佢哋淨資產都已經有1百萬美金，算好多嗎？其實唔多，不過佢哋知足，30歲就急流勇退，2015年8月正式退休，一家三口去咗環遊世界，閒時寫下小說同blog咁，出書做作家，然後再同大家講，錢係唔重要。
被問到今時今日仲有無買樓，佢哋話無了，因為已經退休，近年轉買equities同index funds多，嘗試建立另一種投資。從Joe同Ali嘅個案睇，買樓收租，真係成功關鍵。
部份資料來源：businessinsider
Wednesday, January 25, 2017
Eastspring: Return to risk appetite among investors a wild card for KLCI
By Billy Toh / theedgemarkets.com | January 25, 2017 : 12:50 PM MYT
KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 25): The shift into risky assets seen in 2016 set to accelerate in 2017 could boost the Malaysian market, after three years of subdued performance that saw valuations looking more attractive, according to Eastspring.
During the market outlook 2017 briefing today, Robert Rountree, global strategist of Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Ltd shared that the "yield hunt" had morphed into "yield with some risks", then yield with risk, and eventually risk, pointing to the increase in high yielding bonds shifting to the increase in low valued, high dividend cyclical, as indication of the increase of risk appetite.
He added that investors are returning to long-ignored market and sectors such as cyclical sectors and emerging markets, especially as profit forecasts are rising and the spillover effect of the risk appetite could be a wild card for the Malaysian market.
“The Malaysian market has always been a good story. It’s just that for an international investors, there are some other Asian equities market that are even more attractive. In comparison with the emerging and Asian market, Malaysia has always been somewhere in the middle. But if a Malaysian fund or a Malaysian wants to build up the Malaysian equities portfolio, I don’t think there is going to be a problem,” Rountree said during the briefing.
He added that with the emerging markets poised to perform better in 2017 and a return in risk appetite, the Malaysian market could see a turnaround story.
In line with Roundtree, Eastspring Investments Bhd’s chief investment officer (CIO), Rudie Chan, shared with the media that the FBM KLCI looks attractive in terms of valuation after a lackluster performance for the past three years, but expects the market to remain volatile until the return to corporate earnings upcycle.
“Corporate earnings growth remain tepid, but selective sectors relating to domestic consumption, infrastructure, commodities and exporters in general, will do well,” Chan said.
He added that price-earnings (P/E) ratio of the market has fallen below the 5-years average level of 17 times, and any indication on the return of earnings growth could see the P/E valuation dropped even further, making it even attractive for investors.
He also shared that the price-book (P/B) valuation was at an extreme low level, close to its 5-year low level, dropping close to 1.6 times, as compared to a 5-year average of about 2.1 times.
“Malaysia has always been a defensive market with huge domestic institution funds’ support, and that partly explains the relatively low market beta of 0.65 times.
While 2017 is expected to continue to be volatile, we favor small and mid-cap stocks, as they are poised to benefit from the RM3 billion allocated special fund announced during the Budget 2017.
“Some of the thematic plays include the upcoming general election, stronger USD which will benefit the exporters like plantation, and selective income strategy,” Chan added.
As of noon market trading, the FBM KLCI edged higher by 0.17% to 1,683.50 points. Year-to-date, the Malaysian market has gained by 2.55% and advanced by 6.87% as compared to a year ago, indicating a return in strength to the market, giving weight to both Chan and Rountree’s presentation.
CIMB, TA maintains buy on TNB, despite 12% drop in earnings
By Sulhi Azman / theedgemarkets.com | January 25, 2017 : 1:55 PM MYT
KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 25): Two research houses — CIMB Research and TA Research — is maintaining a buy call on the country’s sole electricity off-taker Tenaga Nasional Bhd (TNB), despite it reporting a 12% drop in earnings in the first quarter ended Nov 30, 2016 (1QFY17).
In a note to clients today, both research houses noted on TNB’s valuations, which CIMB Research had described as “cheap and undemanding”, while TA Research said it is “unjustifiable”.
As for CIMB Research, it is expecting the country’s sole electricity off-taker Tenaga Nasional Bhd (TNB) to report weaker earnings in future quarters due to higher operating expense, adding that the persistent weak economic condition could result in more provisions in the future.
“As we expect Malaysia's economic condition to remain weak in the near term, we believe provisions related to bad and doubtful debts could recur in the coming quarters,” CIMB Research analyst Saw Xiao Jun said in a note to clients today. “We cut our FY17-19F EPS by 3% to 6% to reflect mainly higher provision expenses.”
Yesterday, TNB announced that its net profit dropped 11.9% to RM1.74 billion in 1QFY17 from RM1.976 billion in 1QFY16, dented by foreign exchange losses which almost quadrupled to RM231.2 million.
CIMB Research also noted on TNB’s ability to raise tariffs in the second half of 2017 (2H17) and pass through the higher fuel costs to consumers, given that the current coal price is about US$87 per tonne, about 40% higher than its average coal cost of US$63 per tonne in 1QFY17.
“The management remains confident that the imbalance cost pass-through (ICPT) mechanism will shield the company’s earnings from fluctuation in fuel prices,” said CIMB Research.
Despite cuts on TNB’s earnings forecast and concerns over ICPT mechanism, CIMB Research is maintaining its “add” call on TNB, given its undemanding valuations, as it believe the cheap valuation has priced in all relevant risks.
It is worth noting that despite the add call, CIMB Research has cut TNB’s target price to RM16.30, from RM16.80 previously.
Meanwhile, TA Research said it favours TNB for having a stable core earnings, resilient balance sheet and decent yield, rendering it a safe refuge from macro headwinds.
“On top of that, potential earnings growth from international investments is shaping up. Note that the group targets to derive 20% profit contribution from its international investments,” the research house noted.
TA Research has a target price of RM17.19 on TNB.
KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 25): Two research houses — CIMB Research and TA Research — is maintaining a buy call on the country’s sole electricity off-taker Tenaga Nasional Bhd (TNB), despite it reporting a 12% drop in earnings in the first quarter ended Nov 30, 2016 (1QFY17).
In a note to clients today, both research houses noted on TNB’s valuations, which CIMB Research had described as “cheap and undemanding”, while TA Research said it is “unjustifiable”.
As for CIMB Research, it is expecting the country’s sole electricity off-taker Tenaga Nasional Bhd (TNB) to report weaker earnings in future quarters due to higher operating expense, adding that the persistent weak economic condition could result in more provisions in the future.
“As we expect Malaysia's economic condition to remain weak in the near term, we believe provisions related to bad and doubtful debts could recur in the coming quarters,” CIMB Research analyst Saw Xiao Jun said in a note to clients today. “We cut our FY17-19F EPS by 3% to 6% to reflect mainly higher provision expenses.”
Yesterday, TNB announced that its net profit dropped 11.9% to RM1.74 billion in 1QFY17 from RM1.976 billion in 1QFY16, dented by foreign exchange losses which almost quadrupled to RM231.2 million.
CIMB Research also noted on TNB’s ability to raise tariffs in the second half of 2017 (2H17) and pass through the higher fuel costs to consumers, given that the current coal price is about US$87 per tonne, about 40% higher than its average coal cost of US$63 per tonne in 1QFY17.
“The management remains confident that the imbalance cost pass-through (ICPT) mechanism will shield the company’s earnings from fluctuation in fuel prices,” said CIMB Research.
Despite cuts on TNB’s earnings forecast and concerns over ICPT mechanism, CIMB Research is maintaining its “add” call on TNB, given its undemanding valuations, as it believe the cheap valuation has priced in all relevant risks.
It is worth noting that despite the add call, CIMB Research has cut TNB’s target price to RM16.30, from RM16.80 previously.
Meanwhile, TA Research said it favours TNB for having a stable core earnings, resilient balance sheet and decent yield, rendering it a safe refuge from macro headwinds.
“On top of that, potential earnings growth from international investments is shaping up. Note that the group targets to derive 20% profit contribution from its international investments,” the research house noted.
TA Research has a target price of RM17.19 on TNB.
CCM Duopharma bags RM300 mil job to supply human insulin to all govt hospitals
By Sulhi Azman / theedgemarkets.com | January 25, 2017 : 2:49 PM MYT
KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 25): CCM Duopharma Biotech Bhd announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, CCM Pharmaceuticals Sdn Bhd, has been awarded a RM300.04 million contract by the Health Ministry to supply human insulin to all government hospitals and clinics in Malaysia.
In a filing with Bursa Malaysia this afternoon, CCM Duopharma said the contract is valid for three years, which had commenced from Dec 2, 2016, and will last until Dec 1, 2019.
CCM Pharmaceutical is the reseller of the human insulin, which is manufactured by Biocon Sdn Bhd in Nusajaya, Johor.
Human insulin is the name describing synthetic insulin, which is laboratory-grown to mimic the insulin in humans.
“The company wishes to highlight that the terms of the letter of award will be formalized through the execution of a formal agreement between CCM Pharmaceutical, Biocon and MOH at a later date,” it said in a statement, adding that “nevertheless, the supply of the products to the Ministry of Health has already commenced.”
It is estimated that there are 3.5 million diabetics in Malaysia, of which 350,000 patients are treated by using human insulin in government hospitals and clinics.
“CCM Pharmaceutical and Biocon hope to improve diabetes management in the country by providing high quality and cost effective bio-similar insulin,” the company added.
CCM Duopharma is controlled by Chemical Company of Malaysia Bhd, with a 73.37% stake. It sells pharmaceutical products — via CCM Pharmaceuticals — which are in the form of tablets, syrups, capsules and creams.
Besides Malaysia as its principal market, CCM Duopharma also sells its products in Singapore, Vietnam, Indonesia, Mauritius, Maldives and Philippines.
Meanwhile, Biocon is part of Biocon Ltd, the largest pharmaceutical company in India. The company entered Malaysia in 2010, investing some US$250 million to build an integrated insulin manufacturing facility.
At noon break today, shares in Main Market-listed CCM Duopharma closed unchanged at RM1.92, giving it a market capitalisation of RM535.6 million.
Tuesday, January 24, 2017
转贴 - 总有理由 - 水星
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Tue, 24 Jan 2017, 10:00 AM
Monday, January 23, 2017
史铁生,一位年轻时就双腿瘫痪的中国作家,对他的人生经历说过的一段话:
“当四肢健全,可以随意奔跑的时候,常抱怨周围的环境如何的糟糕.
有一天,突然瘫痪了,坐在了轮椅上,这时候,抱怨自己怎么搞得需要坐轮椅; 怀念当初可以行走和奔跑的日子.
过了两年,开始长褥疮,各种各样的问题开始出现,才怀念当初可以安稳坐在轮椅的日子,是那么的不痛苦.
又过了几年,得到了尿毒症,于是开始怀念当初有褥疮,但是依然可以坐在轮椅上的时光.
又过了几年,要开始进行透析(俗称”洗肾”),一天清醒的时间越来越少,又怀念当初刚得到尿毒症的时光.”
史铁生说,生命中永远有一个”更”,为什么不去珍惜现在?
同工异曲.
现代家长,怀孕的时候,觉得做什么事都不方便,等生下来才做就好了.
生下来后,照顾婴儿事务多,觉得还是不方便,等孩子上学后就好了.
孩子上学后,需要为他们安排上课和各类活动的接送,还要顾及他们的成绩和交际,觉得更加不方便,等孩子毕业上班就好了.
孩子上班后,又操心孩子找不到好的工作和另一半,等孩子结婚稳定下来就好了.
孩子结婚后,下一代很快又来了,托你照顾孙子,这样又开始了周而复始的循环,总有让你不能方便做某件事情的时候.
来到投资理财当然也有类似的熟悉声音.
刚工作,入息太少,钱不够用,无财可理,
收入提升后,年纪尚轻不合适,先享乐要紧.
长大玩够了,要存钱买房买车结婚,投资挪一挪.
都做好了,要存奶粉钱和教育费,再等一等.
孩子自立后,自己觉得高龄承受不了投资风险,不能做了.
我们总能找到理由不去做一件事; 却很少去找驱使自己去做那件事情的理由.
照顾自己的财务,和照顾自己的健康一样,没有所谓合适的时机,不必等到新年或生日立下新希望新目标时才开始,有那颗心,随时都可以开始,也都应该开始.
每年五十千甚至一百千的股息收入只是有钱人的玩意儿?对打工族而言只是天方夜谭?如果你选择原地踏步,一直寻找不行动的理由,那你确实是对的, 它永远都只是一个无法实现的梦.
Posted by 水星 at 3:53 PM
Monday, January 23, 2017
史铁生,一位年轻时就双腿瘫痪的中国作家,对他的人生经历说过的一段话:
“当四肢健全,可以随意奔跑的时候,常抱怨周围的环境如何的糟糕.
有一天,突然瘫痪了,坐在了轮椅上,这时候,抱怨自己怎么搞得需要坐轮椅; 怀念当初可以行走和奔跑的日子.
过了两年,开始长褥疮,各种各样的问题开始出现,才怀念当初可以安稳坐在轮椅的日子,是那么的不痛苦.
又过了几年,得到了尿毒症,于是开始怀念当初有褥疮,但是依然可以坐在轮椅上的时光.
又过了几年,要开始进行透析(俗称”洗肾”),一天清醒的时间越来越少,又怀念当初刚得到尿毒症的时光.”
史铁生说,生命中永远有一个”更”,为什么不去珍惜现在?
同工异曲.
现代家长,怀孕的时候,觉得做什么事都不方便,等生下来才做就好了.
生下来后,照顾婴儿事务多,觉得还是不方便,等孩子上学后就好了.
孩子上学后,需要为他们安排上课和各类活动的接送,还要顾及他们的成绩和交际,觉得更加不方便,等孩子毕业上班就好了.
孩子上班后,又操心孩子找不到好的工作和另一半,等孩子结婚稳定下来就好了.
孩子结婚后,下一代很快又来了,托你照顾孙子,这样又开始了周而复始的循环,总有让你不能方便做某件事情的时候.
来到投资理财当然也有类似的熟悉声音.
刚工作,入息太少,钱不够用,无财可理,
收入提升后,年纪尚轻不合适,先享乐要紧.
长大玩够了,要存钱买房买车结婚,投资挪一挪.
都做好了,要存奶粉钱和教育费,再等一等.
孩子自立后,自己觉得高龄承受不了投资风险,不能做了.
我们总能找到理由不去做一件事; 却很少去找驱使自己去做那件事情的理由.
照顾自己的财务,和照顾自己的健康一样,没有所谓合适的时机,不必等到新年或生日立下新希望新目标时才开始,有那颗心,随时都可以开始,也都应该开始.
每年五十千甚至一百千的股息收入只是有钱人的玩意儿?对打工族而言只是天方夜谭?如果你选择原地踏步,一直寻找不行动的理由,那你确实是对的, 它永远都只是一个无法实现的梦.
Posted by 水星 at 3:53 PM
[转贴] 靄華押業 - 止凡
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Tue, 24 Jan 2017, 10:04 AM
2017年1月23日星期一
看到一個影片講述一個有趣行業，就是經常在街上看到的當舖，即押業，止凡從來未有接觸過這個行業，亦沒有用過他們的服務，難得有電視節目介紹這行業，又長知識了。
節目訪問了這個行業唯一間上市的公司，即靄華押業，市值約十億元左右，是一支毫子股。這家公司有11間當舖分店，2013年才上市，上市歷史雖不算長，但這家公司早於1975年成立，是家族生意。
到底這個行業大概是怎樣運作的呢？原來主要業務是類似銀行貸款賺利息，客人放下一些值錢的私人物品作為抵押，當舖負責人就會按物品的市價來考慮，再向客人借出資金，一般以月息3厘半來計算，化作年利率其實比信用卡貸款還要利害。
押當的客人需要月月還息的，例如一部iphone手機，公司向客人借出$3000，客人於一個月後就需要還$105利息。當然，所批出的$3000借貸一定要低於手機本身賣價，以防客人「斷當」。例如當時每两$11800的金價，客人押當一两黃金，大約只能借到八九千元，這是這盤生意上的安全邊際吧。
blog友應該與我一樣不會太多接觸到這服務，因此我們都會在想這些押當生意到底有多少客人呢？公司負責人也直言，現今世代的確比從前少生意，以前一日有百多單押當生意，今天一日則只有十多單，很多是菲傭姐姐，亦有年輕人，很多時押當的都是智能手機與一些小手飾。我們可能以為窮人才會到當舖，原來真正窮的話，實在身無分文，因此無東西可當。
談起生意路線，原來這家公司於2009年開始造樓按生意，如今樓按揭生意佔六成，整個生意模式很特別，因為有押業做基礎，可支持樓按生意，而樓按生意又是這盤生意的新增長路線。為何客人要找這類公司呢？這些公司的優勝之處在於方便，營業時間都遷就客人，而且手續比銀行及財務公司簡單，所以仍有生存空間。
每項生意都有風險，押業也不例外。他們曾經收過假樓契，雖立即報警處理，當然亦有所損失。這生意亦有機會接收到賊贓，亦有假貨，所以收當者需要很有經驗，對各方資訊要有掌握，對各類貴品都要有所認識，至少二手iphone6在先達放賣價是多少也要有所掌握吧。負責人在節目中分享數據，過往斷當比率只一成左右，這一成貨品也在手，而且有安全邊際，不至於完全成為壞帳撥備吧。
看其前景，因為生意模式主要賺息差，節目主持擔心加息會影響其盈利，但其實生意負責人直言有其他資金來源，例如在市場上集資，所以不一定需要借貸回來才能借出資金，因此資金成本可得以控制，而且即使加息，他們亦會把加息風險轉嫁客人，所以對前景亦算樂觀。我們以為這行業是夕陽工業，但負責人指這確實有不錯市場需求，認為這行業至少到孫兒一代也一定存在。
這的確是很有趣的行業，看完這節目，感覺這盤生意的模式使其profit margin應該不錯。因為光顧的客人大概是相對理財不善的一群，所以要抵押身上物品以高息借錢應急的一種。一盤生意能拿著抵押品再以數十厘利息借錢出去，在現金的低息環境實在是少見的高利潤水平的生意。然而，分店只有11間，市值只有十億，比今天的上市「殼價」只高一點點吧，實非我杯茶，blog友有興趣可研究分享。
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8kGz208Db8&list=PL2FflE5xSM4SB9vazF_dcYmop-HiucsPD
張貼者： 止凡 於 22:40
整合非上市资产．WCT将成林晓春旗舰
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Tue, 24 Jan 2017, 10:19 AM
2017-01-24 09:02
（吉隆坡23日讯）WCT控股（WCT，9679，主板建筑组）将转型成为丹斯理林晓春的产业旗舰公司，有望结合他旗下上市和非上市公司，分析员肯定该公司目前的“瘦身”和整合行动，但具体执行成果如何仍有待观察。
大马投行指出，在新管理层入驻之后，该公司将会探索与大股东林晓春其他公司如马顿（MALTON,6181,主板产业组）和吉隆坡柏威年和白沙罗柏威年等公司的合作。分析员初步估计林晓春其他产业的价值约为20亿令吉，和WCT目前22亿市值相等。
售购物商场与非策略性地段
该行认为，该公司将脱售所购物商场与非策略性地段以继续执行其“瘦身计划”。尽管该公司向来都有分拆购物商场计划，但在新大股东加入后，市场一般预测柏威年产业信托（PAVREIT，5212，主板产业投资信托组）会是该公司旗下商场的买家。
目前WCT控股拥有3家购物商场分别为帐面净值（Net Book Value，NBV）7亿2900万令吉的佰乐泰广场（Paradigm占70%股权）、总值4亿4200万令吉的BBT购物广场（独资）及吉隆坡第二机场商场。
至于土地脱售方面，该公司也考虑脱售所有非策略性土地，如位于巴生谷流域外围的武吉丁宜城（Bandar Bukit Tinggi）、万绕及双文丹（Serendah）等地段，大马投银估计大约总值10亿令吉。
虽然如此，预料该公司仍会继续持有其位于华联（OUG）60英亩的位于敦拉萨国际贸易中心（TRX）的2英亩地段。
尽管该公司选择保留华联地段用于发展，但其速度将会踩刹车，主要是其姐妹公司马顿在距离该地不到5公里处的武吉加里尔，也正在进行大型的综合发展项目。
大马投行特别指出，华联土地的账面价值已经从2012年的4亿5000万令吉增至今的7亿令吉。
该行有理由相信，WCT控股将在该地段上推出店屋，以获得部份现金。
此外，新管理层也表示将其建筑业务独立分拆的计划正在进行中，不过其首要阶段是进行资产脱售及与林晓春旗下业务进行整合。
专注执行48亿建筑订单
WCT控股目前仍专注于执行其48亿令吉建筑订单，并透过参与更多基建项目以改善其赚幅，而非专注于竞争激烈和利润较少的建筑物工程订单。
大马投银认为，基于上述原因，市场不应该认为WCT会顺理成章地获得柏威年武吉加里尔以及柏威年白沙罗（预估发展总值50亿）的发展计划建筑合约。
新管理层表示，十分有信心该公司将获得至少一项轻快铁3线配套（预计总值10亿令吉），皆因该地段有3个车站路经武吉丁宜城门户。
在上周，该公司也宣布将发接近目前总股数10%的附加股计划，其指标性价格为每股一令吉70仙，相信此附加股计划也会引进新的策略性大股东。
发附加股筹2亿
该附加股计划预料将筹措2亿1000万令吉，主要用来降低其高居不下的负债及用来作为WCT旗下建筑和产业项目的资金。
大马投行估算，该附加股计划将把WCT目前企于0.88倍负债比降至0.75倍，但附加股计划将稀释该公司4.7%每股盈利。
大马投行肯定该公司脱售资产，强化资产负债表计划，并认为林晓春旗下其他业务将该WCT控股市值增加一倍至40亿令吉，届时将吸引更多国内外投资者。
综合以上，该行认为魔鬼藏在细节中，仍需静观该公司未来执行手段，因此维持其“持有”
评级不变，目标价为1令吉86仙。
文章来源：
星洲日报‧财经‧报道：傅文耀‧2017.01.24
http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1608582/%E6%95%B4%E5%90%88%E9%9D%9E%E4%B8%8A%E5%B8%82%E8%B5%84%E4%BA%A7%EF%BC%8Ewct%E5%B0%86%E6%88%90%E6%9E%97%E6%99%93%E6%98%A5%E6%97%97%E8%88%B0
2017-01-24 09:02
（吉隆坡23日讯）WCT控股（WCT，9679，主板建筑组）将转型成为丹斯理林晓春的产业旗舰公司，有望结合他旗下上市和非上市公司，分析员肯定该公司目前的“瘦身”和整合行动，但具体执行成果如何仍有待观察。
大马投行指出，在新管理层入驻之后，该公司将会探索与大股东林晓春其他公司如马顿（MALTON,6181,主板产业组）和吉隆坡柏威年和白沙罗柏威年等公司的合作。分析员初步估计林晓春其他产业的价值约为20亿令吉，和WCT目前22亿市值相等。
售购物商场与非策略性地段
该行认为，该公司将脱售所购物商场与非策略性地段以继续执行其“瘦身计划”。尽管该公司向来都有分拆购物商场计划，但在新大股东加入后，市场一般预测柏威年产业信托（PAVREIT，5212，主板产业投资信托组）会是该公司旗下商场的买家。
目前WCT控股拥有3家购物商场分别为帐面净值（Net Book Value，NBV）7亿2900万令吉的佰乐泰广场（Paradigm占70%股权）、总值4亿4200万令吉的BBT购物广场（独资）及吉隆坡第二机场商场。
至于土地脱售方面，该公司也考虑脱售所有非策略性土地，如位于巴生谷流域外围的武吉丁宜城（Bandar Bukit Tinggi）、万绕及双文丹（Serendah）等地段，大马投银估计大约总值10亿令吉。
虽然如此，预料该公司仍会继续持有其位于华联（OUG）60英亩的位于敦拉萨国际贸易中心（TRX）的2英亩地段。
尽管该公司选择保留华联地段用于发展，但其速度将会踩刹车，主要是其姐妹公司马顿在距离该地不到5公里处的武吉加里尔，也正在进行大型的综合发展项目。
大马投行特别指出，华联土地的账面价值已经从2012年的4亿5000万令吉增至今的7亿令吉。
该行有理由相信，WCT控股将在该地段上推出店屋，以获得部份现金。
此外，新管理层也表示将其建筑业务独立分拆的计划正在进行中，不过其首要阶段是进行资产脱售及与林晓春旗下业务进行整合。
专注执行48亿建筑订单
WCT控股目前仍专注于执行其48亿令吉建筑订单，并透过参与更多基建项目以改善其赚幅，而非专注于竞争激烈和利润较少的建筑物工程订单。
大马投银认为，基于上述原因，市场不应该认为WCT会顺理成章地获得柏威年武吉加里尔以及柏威年白沙罗（预估发展总值50亿）的发展计划建筑合约。
新管理层表示，十分有信心该公司将获得至少一项轻快铁3线配套（预计总值10亿令吉），皆因该地段有3个车站路经武吉丁宜城门户。
在上周，该公司也宣布将发接近目前总股数10%的附加股计划，其指标性价格为每股一令吉70仙，相信此附加股计划也会引进新的策略性大股东。
发附加股筹2亿
该附加股计划预料将筹措2亿1000万令吉，主要用来降低其高居不下的负债及用来作为WCT旗下建筑和产业项目的资金。
大马投行估算，该附加股计划将把WCT目前企于0.88倍负债比降至0.75倍，但附加股计划将稀释该公司4.7%每股盈利。
大马投行肯定该公司脱售资产，强化资产负债表计划，并认为林晓春旗下其他业务将该WCT控股市值增加一倍至40亿令吉，届时将吸引更多国内外投资者。
综合以上，该行认为魔鬼藏在细节中，仍需静观该公司未来执行手段，因此维持其“持有”
评级不变，目标价为1令吉86仙。
文章来源：
星洲日报‧财经‧报道：傅文耀‧2017.01.24
http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1608582/%E6%95%B4%E5%90%88%E9%9D%9E%E4%B8%8A%E5%B8%82%E8%B5%84%E4%BA%A7%EF%BC%8Ewct%E5%B0%86%E6%88%90%E6%9E%97%E6%99%93%E6%98%A5%E6%97%97%E8%88%B0
(RICHE HO) Karyon Industries Berhad - Hidden Gem below 20 cent
Author: RicheHo | Publish date: Tue, 24 Jan 2017, 04:02 PM
Karyon Industries Berhad
Background
KARYON’s history can be traced back to year 1990, where the founders ventured into the trading of polyvinyl chloride compound (“PVC”) compound. Later on, they decided to manufacture their own PVC compound, started with a second hand PVC compound production line, with a production capacity of 840 MT per annum only.
Initially, KARYON’s products can be generally classified under two industries, namely:
Polymeric (Upstream)
manufacture various types of PVC compound, stabilizers and lubricant
compounded polymer raw materials for manufacturers who operated in polymer industry
play a complementary role in arriving at polymer based products
Oleochemical
manufacture Palm Kernel Diethanolamide (“PKDE”)
used in the manufacturing of washing detergent, cleaning liquid and toiletry products
In year 2014, due to weak performance, KARYON had shut down its oleochemical operation. Its factory plant which located at Shah Alam, Selangor was subsequently disposed in year 2016. (will be discuss below)
It was listed on Ace Market of Bursa Securities in Sep 2004 and subsequently transferred to Main Market in May 2014.
Financial Highlight
In Dec 2015, KARYON had changed its financial year from 31st Dec to 31st Mar. Hence, its FY15 audited financial statement consisted of 15 months (5 quarters), made up from Jan 2015 to Mar 2016.
Overall, KARYON’s financial performance over the past few years was considered average. Its revenue had increased slightly for 3 years consecutively, mainly contributed by higher sales volume of polymeric products.
However, due to increase in cost of materials, one-time off expenses incurred for the transfer listing exercise and share of loss of a joint venture, KARYON’s net profit had dropped significantly in FY14 and FY15.
KARYON had incurred some non-operating items in recent years, as below:
FY13 – One-off gain on disposal of a factory, MYR0.64m
FY15 – Sales tax and penalty imposed by Jabatan Kastam Diraja Malaysia, MYR1.60m
In FY16, KARYON had an excellent profit in first two quarters, which was almost the same profit as in full FY15. It was mainly contributed from more orders received from customers and increase in production by 220 MT.
FYI, KARYON’s new production line had commenced partially in Jun 2016. As a result, its sales volume of polymeric products had increased by approximately 10% as compared to FY15.
Polymeric Division
PVC products constitute part of the polymer industry and play a complementary role in arriving at polymer based products.
KARYON compounds polymer raw materials for manufacturers operating in this industry. It is focusing on the upstream of PVC industry, producing various types of PVC compound and PVC color masterbatch.
Generally, compounding enables thermoplastic resins to effectively meet the heat strength and other requirements for polymer or plastic products.
The raw materials used for the production of compounds are derivatives of crude oil and natural gas. These building blocks of plastics are short-chain molecules called monomers. Monomers that are combined to create longer, more complex chains are known as polymers.
KARYON’s end applications of its products are as below:
Wire and cable insulation
Hoses – normal water hoses to chemical and oil resistant hoses
Packaging purpose
Cable
PVC products
Toys and food contact applications
Based on its previous record, KARYON’s major customers were from cable industry. Its main raw materials for the production of PVC compound were PVC resin, plasticizers and calcium carbonate. These three items constitute approximately 85% for the total raw material cost.
Over the years, KARYON had been refining its capabilities in polymeric manufacturing and contract manufacturing by adding value through formulating polymeric materials according to customers’ specifications and requirements.
As at today, it had emerged to become one of the largest PVC compound manufacturers in Malaysia.
Over the past two years, KARYON’s revenue from polymeric division was consistently in the range of MYR32 – 34m, without any growth.
However, in FY17, KARYON had received more orders from customers. In order to cater the demands, it had increased its production by 220MT resulted from installation of a new production line.
KARYON had invested substantially in the expansion of its production capacity since FY16. By attaining mass production, it was expected to increase KARYON’s profitability and enhance the long term business prospects of the Group.
The new production line had commenced operation in Jun 2016.
As a result of expansion, KARYON’s profit margin had increased from 6-8% previously to 9%. In other words, KARYON’s cost of production had reduced by 2-3%.
Own Land & Factory Plant
In Mar 2015, KARYON had acquired a piece of land together with a factory erected thereon located in Johor Bahru for MYR8.39m.
Previously, KARYON had been in a tenancy agreement for a term of 3 years. It occupied the land and factory plant for an annual rental of approximately MYR198k for its warehousing and manufacturing operations.
Since the tenancy agreement will be expiring on Jun 2015, the acquisition enables KARYON to own the land and factory plant, which result in annual rental cost savings of approximately MYR198k.
Besides, the acquisition eliminates the risk of non-renewal of the tenancy agreement as there is no assurance it will be renewed.
Oleochemical Division – Cessation of Operation
In Mar 2015, KARYON had ceased all operations of its wholly-owned subsidiary, Karyon (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd, in order to prevent incurring any further losses,
Karyon (Malaysia) was principally engaged in the manufacturing of foam boosters, concentrated detergent paste, washing detergent and toiletries.
It was not a major subsidiary of KARYON and it contributed only approximately 11% of KARYON’s unaudited consolidated total assets as at FY14. Karyon (Malaysia) had been in a loss making position since FY14.
The summary of financial performance of Karyon (Malaysia) was as below:
However, HARYON had only shut down its factory plant in Selangor. It did not go through deregistration of the subsidiary. Hence, it still needs to bear some unavoidable expenses such as audit fees, factory expenses, etc.
Disposal of Factory Plant
In order to cut down all unnecessary expenses by is oleochemical division, in Apr 2016, KARYON had proposed to dispose of the piece of leasehold land and its factory in Selangor for MYR5.62m.
The total net book value of the land and factory was approximately MYR1.78m. Upon completion, the profit arising from the disposal after deducting the estimated expenses was approximately MYR3.51m.
The disposal enables KARYON to unlock the value of the land and factory that do not contribute towards the core business of the Group. It would also discharge KARYON from the land’s future holding and maintenance costs.
It was more efficient to utilize the proceeds received from the disposal for KARYON’s working capital purposes rather than leaving the land and factory idle.
The disposal was completed on Oct 2016. KARYON will include the gain on disposal of MYR3.51m in its FY17Q3 result, which will be release on Feb 2017.
With the cessation of oleochemical’s business operation, KARYON fully focused on its core business – polymeric division.
Sales Tax Penalty Refund
In Dec 2016, the Finance Ministry had agreed to refund the sales tax penalty of MYR0.53m imposed on KARYON. The further appeal would not be considered by the Finance Ministry.
To recap, in Apr 2016, the Customs Department had notified KARYON to request for the additional payment of MYR1.06m in sales tax together with penalty of MYR0.53m due to different classification of product tariff code.
Subsequently, KARYON paid the sales tax and sales tax penalty on Apr 2016. As a result, KARYON had incurred loss of MYR1.02m in the same quarter.
In May 2016, KARYON made an appeal, and the following month, KARYON received a letter saying that the ministry would rescind the sales tax penalty making the full sales tax payment. However, there would be no refund for penalty or compound that had been paid.
That led to KARYON making another appeal, which resulted in the Finance Ministry agreeing to refund the tax penalty.
The refund was expected to boost KARYON’s FY16Q4 result.
Fire Incident
In Nov 2016, there was a fire incident occurred at a third party premise located adjacent to one of the manufacturing facilities of KARYON at Johor.
The fire incident had affected small area of the factory, causing some damages to the raw materials and finished products and disruption to two PVC production lines. The management had decided to temporarily cease the manufacturing operation in the factory pending some clean-up and repair works.
The manufacturing operation in the factory was expected to re-commence approximately 1 week. As to date, the management was unable to finalize the financial impact to KARYON, but they believes that the damages were adequately insured pending the insurance company’s assessment.
Changes in Substantial Shareholders
In Jan 2017, the chief executive officer of KARYON, Mr. Chua Ling Hong had acquired 324,600 shares worth MYR60,926 from open market. He was the son of the founder, Dr. Chua Kee Lam.
Besides, Dr. Chua had also transferred 3m shares to his son, Mr. Chua Ling Hong, which he is also deemed interested.
As to date, Mr. Chua Ling Hong owned 3.06% direct stake and 8.06% indirect stake in KARYON.
Financial Strength
As to date, KARYON as healthy financial company with net cash of MYR14.8m on hand. Besides, its debt to equity ratio was only 25%.
KARYON had been declaring dividends over the past 8 years.
Valuation
With the expansion of production capacity in polymeric division, KARYON’s financial performance was likely to improve in FY17. Its profit margin had improved from 6-8% previously to current 9%.
Let’s assume KARYON will be able to deliver MYR9m net profit in FY17. Based on its outstanding shares of 475.71m, its earnings per share will be 1.89 cent. With an estimated PE of 10-12, KARYON will have an instrinsic value of MYR0.19 – 0.23.
Do note that, KARYON's upcoming result will included the gain on disposal of MYR3.51m which will be release on Feb 2017.
Previously, KARYON delivered MYR8.9m net profit in FY13. During that time, its share price had surged from MYR0.15 to highest MYR0.35 in a year.
Perhaps, KARYON may be able to repeat the same history again?
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Karyon Industries Berhad
Background
KARYON’s history can be traced back to year 1990, where the founders ventured into the trading of polyvinyl chloride compound (“PVC”) compound. Later on, they decided to manufacture their own PVC compound, started with a second hand PVC compound production line, with a production capacity of 840 MT per annum only.
Initially, KARYON’s products can be generally classified under two industries, namely:
Polymeric (Upstream)
manufacture various types of PVC compound, stabilizers and lubricant
compounded polymer raw materials for manufacturers who operated in polymer industry
play a complementary role in arriving at polymer based products
Oleochemical
manufacture Palm Kernel Diethanolamide (“PKDE”)
used in the manufacturing of washing detergent, cleaning liquid and toiletry products
In year 2014, due to weak performance, KARYON had shut down its oleochemical operation. Its factory plant which located at Shah Alam, Selangor was subsequently disposed in year 2016. (will be discuss below)
It was listed on Ace Market of Bursa Securities in Sep 2004 and subsequently transferred to Main Market in May 2014.
Financial Highlight
In Dec 2015, KARYON had changed its financial year from 31st Dec to 31st Mar. Hence, its FY15 audited financial statement consisted of 15 months (5 quarters), made up from Jan 2015 to Mar 2016.
Overall, KARYON’s financial performance over the past few years was considered average. Its revenue had increased slightly for 3 years consecutively, mainly contributed by higher sales volume of polymeric products.
However, due to increase in cost of materials, one-time off expenses incurred for the transfer listing exercise and share of loss of a joint venture, KARYON’s net profit had dropped significantly in FY14 and FY15.
KARYON had incurred some non-operating items in recent years, as below:
FY13 – One-off gain on disposal of a factory, MYR0.64m
FY15 – Sales tax and penalty imposed by Jabatan Kastam Diraja Malaysia, MYR1.60m
In FY16, KARYON had an excellent profit in first two quarters, which was almost the same profit as in full FY15. It was mainly contributed from more orders received from customers and increase in production by 220 MT.
FYI, KARYON’s new production line had commenced partially in Jun 2016. As a result, its sales volume of polymeric products had increased by approximately 10% as compared to FY15.
Polymeric Division
PVC products constitute part of the polymer industry and play a complementary role in arriving at polymer based products.
KARYON compounds polymer raw materials for manufacturers operating in this industry. It is focusing on the upstream of PVC industry, producing various types of PVC compound and PVC color masterbatch.
Generally, compounding enables thermoplastic resins to effectively meet the heat strength and other requirements for polymer or plastic products.
The raw materials used for the production of compounds are derivatives of crude oil and natural gas. These building blocks of plastics are short-chain molecules called monomers. Monomers that are combined to create longer, more complex chains are known as polymers.
KARYON’s end applications of its products are as below:
Wire and cable insulation
Hoses – normal water hoses to chemical and oil resistant hoses
Packaging purpose
Cable
PVC products
Toys and food contact applications
Based on its previous record, KARYON’s major customers were from cable industry. Its main raw materials for the production of PVC compound were PVC resin, plasticizers and calcium carbonate. These three items constitute approximately 85% for the total raw material cost.
Over the years, KARYON had been refining its capabilities in polymeric manufacturing and contract manufacturing by adding value through formulating polymeric materials according to customers’ specifications and requirements.
As at today, it had emerged to become one of the largest PVC compound manufacturers in Malaysia.
Over the past two years, KARYON’s revenue from polymeric division was consistently in the range of MYR32 – 34m, without any growth.
However, in FY17, KARYON had received more orders from customers. In order to cater the demands, it had increased its production by 220MT resulted from installation of a new production line.
KARYON had invested substantially in the expansion of its production capacity since FY16. By attaining mass production, it was expected to increase KARYON’s profitability and enhance the long term business prospects of the Group.
The new production line had commenced operation in Jun 2016.
As a result of expansion, KARYON’s profit margin had increased from 6-8% previously to 9%. In other words, KARYON’s cost of production had reduced by 2-3%.
Own Land & Factory Plant
In Mar 2015, KARYON had acquired a piece of land together with a factory erected thereon located in Johor Bahru for MYR8.39m.
Previously, KARYON had been in a tenancy agreement for a term of 3 years. It occupied the land and factory plant for an annual rental of approximately MYR198k for its warehousing and manufacturing operations.
Since the tenancy agreement will be expiring on Jun 2015, the acquisition enables KARYON to own the land and factory plant, which result in annual rental cost savings of approximately MYR198k.
Besides, the acquisition eliminates the risk of non-renewal of the tenancy agreement as there is no assurance it will be renewed.
Oleochemical Division – Cessation of Operation
In Mar 2015, KARYON had ceased all operations of its wholly-owned subsidiary, Karyon (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd, in order to prevent incurring any further losses,
Karyon (Malaysia) was principally engaged in the manufacturing of foam boosters, concentrated detergent paste, washing detergent and toiletries.
It was not a major subsidiary of KARYON and it contributed only approximately 11% of KARYON’s unaudited consolidated total assets as at FY14. Karyon (Malaysia) had been in a loss making position since FY14.
The summary of financial performance of Karyon (Malaysia) was as below:
However, HARYON had only shut down its factory plant in Selangor. It did not go through deregistration of the subsidiary. Hence, it still needs to bear some unavoidable expenses such as audit fees, factory expenses, etc.
Disposal of Factory Plant
In order to cut down all unnecessary expenses by is oleochemical division, in Apr 2016, KARYON had proposed to dispose of the piece of leasehold land and its factory in Selangor for MYR5.62m.
The total net book value of the land and factory was approximately MYR1.78m. Upon completion, the profit arising from the disposal after deducting the estimated expenses was approximately MYR3.51m.
The disposal enables KARYON to unlock the value of the land and factory that do not contribute towards the core business of the Group. It would also discharge KARYON from the land’s future holding and maintenance costs.
It was more efficient to utilize the proceeds received from the disposal for KARYON’s working capital purposes rather than leaving the land and factory idle.
The disposal was completed on Oct 2016. KARYON will include the gain on disposal of MYR3.51m in its FY17Q3 result, which will be release on Feb 2017.
With the cessation of oleochemical’s business operation, KARYON fully focused on its core business – polymeric division.
Sales Tax Penalty Refund
In Dec 2016, the Finance Ministry had agreed to refund the sales tax penalty of MYR0.53m imposed on KARYON. The further appeal would not be considered by the Finance Ministry.
To recap, in Apr 2016, the Customs Department had notified KARYON to request for the additional payment of MYR1.06m in sales tax together with penalty of MYR0.53m due to different classification of product tariff code.
Subsequently, KARYON paid the sales tax and sales tax penalty on Apr 2016. As a result, KARYON had incurred loss of MYR1.02m in the same quarter.
In May 2016, KARYON made an appeal, and the following month, KARYON received a letter saying that the ministry would rescind the sales tax penalty making the full sales tax payment. However, there would be no refund for penalty or compound that had been paid.
That led to KARYON making another appeal, which resulted in the Finance Ministry agreeing to refund the tax penalty.
The refund was expected to boost KARYON’s FY16Q4 result.
Fire Incident
In Nov 2016, there was a fire incident occurred at a third party premise located adjacent to one of the manufacturing facilities of KARYON at Johor.
The fire incident had affected small area of the factory, causing some damages to the raw materials and finished products and disruption to two PVC production lines. The management had decided to temporarily cease the manufacturing operation in the factory pending some clean-up and repair works.
The manufacturing operation in the factory was expected to re-commence approximately 1 week. As to date, the management was unable to finalize the financial impact to KARYON, but they believes that the damages were adequately insured pending the insurance company’s assessment.
Changes in Substantial Shareholders
In Jan 2017, the chief executive officer of KARYON, Mr. Chua Ling Hong had acquired 324,600 shares worth MYR60,926 from open market. He was the son of the founder, Dr. Chua Kee Lam.
Besides, Dr. Chua had also transferred 3m shares to his son, Mr. Chua Ling Hong, which he is also deemed interested.
As to date, Mr. Chua Ling Hong owned 3.06% direct stake and 8.06% indirect stake in KARYON.
Financial Strength
As to date, KARYON as healthy financial company with net cash of MYR14.8m on hand. Besides, its debt to equity ratio was only 25%.
KARYON had been declaring dividends over the past 8 years.
Valuation
With the expansion of production capacity in polymeric division, KARYON’s financial performance was likely to improve in FY17. Its profit margin had improved from 6-8% previously to current 9%.
Let’s assume KARYON will be able to deliver MYR9m net profit in FY17. Based on its outstanding shares of 475.71m, its earnings per share will be 1.89 cent. With an estimated PE of 10-12, KARYON will have an instrinsic value of MYR0.19 – 0.23.
Do note that, KARYON's upcoming result will included the gain on disposal of MYR3.51m which will be release on Feb 2017.
Previously, KARYON delivered MYR8.9m net profit in FY13. During that time, its share price had surged from MYR0.15 to highest MYR0.35 in a year.
Perhaps, KARYON may be able to repeat the same history again?
Hey guys, I am providing stock analysis report for a small fees. For more info, you may email me at richeho_92@hotmail.com
If you guys like my writing, kindly give me a like on my FB page as well.
https://www.facebook.com/rhresearch/
For any enquiry, you may contact me as well. Sharing is caring.
Happy investing!
Cheers!
2020年TMC市值爆炸性成长
2017年01月23日 | 记者：陈智浩
（吉隆坡23日讯）TMC生命科学（TMCLIFE，0101，主板贸服股）首席执行员郭鸿盛认为，在2020年完成一系列扩充计划后，旗下医院的床位將从现有的200张，扩充至1100张，届时该公司的市值或將出现爆炸性成长（exponential growth）。
郭鸿盛在今日出席该公司的股东大会后向《东方財经》表示，该公司在柔佛州打造的Iskandariah医院和现有丽阳医药中心（Tropicana Medical Centre）扩充后，旗下医院的床位將增加900张，至1100张，倘若该公司的財务情况健全和保持稳定，TMC生命科学的市值料將以爆炸性成长。目前，TMC生命科学的市值为16亿3030万令吉。
此前，TMC生命科学宣佈將扩充于哥打白沙罗的丽阳医药中心，即从现有的200张床位，提高至600个床位；同时，该公司也欲在新山兴建拥有500个床位的Iskandariah医院。
郭鸿盛指出，上述2项计划已准备就绪，现阶段只需等待卫生部的最后批准，就可动工；而上述工程预计將耗资15亿令吉。
针对该公司如何融资上述工程所需的15亿令吉，郭鸿盛解释说，该公司不排除未来將再进行筹资活动，但確切的融资管道未有定案。
「目前，TMC生命科学手中拥有2亿令吉的现金，在所有附加股完成转换后，料可筹得6亿令吉，而工程所需的15亿令吉並非一次性支付，因此公司现金流方面相信不会遇到问题。」
业绩料正面
同时，郭鸿盛解释，由於Iskandariah医院是一项標誌性的医院发展计划，且將在未来成为世界上最高的医院大楼之一，因此，卫生部需要较多的时间进行评估和考量。而郭鸿盛也希望，所有的发展工程能在今年內开始动工。
另一边厢，郭鸿盛指出，由於大马医疗市场仍供不应求，因此TMC生命科学在现財政年料可持续交出正面的业绩表现。
郭鸿盛也透露，该公司曾与其控股公司——新加坡康生医院（Thomson Medical Centre），和爱尔兰都柏林大学学院，所签署的谅解备忘录，即探討联营保健科学培训与教育中心的计划，將在今年中签署正式的合作协议。
询及令吉疲软对该公司的影响，郭氏认为，令吉走贬对该公司是双刃剑。
虽然进口药物和器材將拉高公司成本，但同时却增加了大马在医疗旅游的吸引力。
「我相信，投资者可在即將揭晓的首季业绩之中，找到令吉走软对公司影响的答案。」
另一方面，TMC生命科学现有的外国病患贡献了该集团营业额的10%，郭氏表示，配合丽阳医药中心的扩建和Iskandariah医院工程在2020年的竣工，届时，外国病患的贡献或增加至25%。
关於该公司旗下的接生中心，郭鸿盛指出，该业务贡献了17.8%的营业额，而该公司也计划在今年內，于全马再开数间分行。
郭鸿盛也透露，TMC生命科学今年预计將拨出2500万令吉的资本开销，现阶段也与新加坡康生医院积极在中国和东南亚国家进行推广和营销，以提高该医院的知名度。
TMC生命科学2017財政年首季（截至11月30日止）净利从去年的334万令吉，提高32.99%，至444万令吉；营业额也从前期3133万令吉，上扬15.54%，至3620万令吉。
（吉隆坡23日讯）TMC生命科学（TMCLIFE，0101，主板贸服股）首席执行员郭鸿盛认为，在2020年完成一系列扩充计划后，旗下医院的床位將从现有的200张，扩充至1100张，届时该公司的市值或將出现爆炸性成长（exponential growth）。
郭鸿盛在今日出席该公司的股东大会后向《东方財经》表示，该公司在柔佛州打造的Iskandariah医院和现有丽阳医药中心（Tropicana Medical Centre）扩充后，旗下医院的床位將增加900张，至1100张，倘若该公司的財务情况健全和保持稳定，TMC生命科学的市值料將以爆炸性成长。目前，TMC生命科学的市值为16亿3030万令吉。
此前，TMC生命科学宣佈將扩充于哥打白沙罗的丽阳医药中心，即从现有的200张床位，提高至600个床位；同时，该公司也欲在新山兴建拥有500个床位的Iskandariah医院。
郭鸿盛指出，上述2项计划已准备就绪，现阶段只需等待卫生部的最后批准，就可动工；而上述工程预计將耗资15亿令吉。
针对该公司如何融资上述工程所需的15亿令吉，郭鸿盛解释说，该公司不排除未来將再进行筹资活动，但確切的融资管道未有定案。
「目前，TMC生命科学手中拥有2亿令吉的现金，在所有附加股完成转换后，料可筹得6亿令吉，而工程所需的15亿令吉並非一次性支付，因此公司现金流方面相信不会遇到问题。」
业绩料正面
同时，郭鸿盛解释，由於Iskandariah医院是一项標誌性的医院发展计划，且將在未来成为世界上最高的医院大楼之一，因此，卫生部需要较多的时间进行评估和考量。而郭鸿盛也希望，所有的发展工程能在今年內开始动工。
另一边厢，郭鸿盛指出，由於大马医疗市场仍供不应求，因此TMC生命科学在现財政年料可持续交出正面的业绩表现。
郭鸿盛也透露，该公司曾与其控股公司——新加坡康生医院（Thomson Medical Centre），和爱尔兰都柏林大学学院，所签署的谅解备忘录，即探討联营保健科学培训与教育中心的计划，將在今年中签署正式的合作协议。
询及令吉疲软对该公司的影响，郭氏认为，令吉走贬对该公司是双刃剑。
虽然进口药物和器材將拉高公司成本，但同时却增加了大马在医疗旅游的吸引力。
「我相信，投资者可在即將揭晓的首季业绩之中，找到令吉走软对公司影响的答案。」
另一方面，TMC生命科学现有的外国病患贡献了该集团营业额的10%，郭氏表示，配合丽阳医药中心的扩建和Iskandariah医院工程在2020年的竣工，届时，外国病患的贡献或增加至25%。
关於该公司旗下的接生中心，郭鸿盛指出，该业务贡献了17.8%的营业额，而该公司也计划在今年內，于全马再开数间分行。
郭鸿盛也透露，TMC生命科学今年预计將拨出2500万令吉的资本开销，现阶段也与新加坡康生医院积极在中国和东南亚国家进行推广和营销，以提高该医院的知名度。
TMC生命科学2017財政年首季（截至11月30日止）净利从去年的334万令吉，提高32.99%，至444万令吉；营业额也从前期3133万令吉，上扬15.54%，至3620万令吉。
PR1MA可负担屋更吸引 华阳建乐最大输家
914点看 2017年1月23日
（吉隆坡23日讯）随着一个马来西亚房屋计划（PR1MA）的条件更具吸引力，意味着将对私人发展商形成竞争，专注可负担房屋发展商如华阳（HUAYANG，5062，主板产业股）和建乐集团（SNTORIA，5213，主板产业股）将受到最大冲击。
昨日，首相拿督斯里纳吉宣布两项政策，放宽PR1MA条例，让更多人有资格拥有相关房屋。
这包括申请者最高家庭收入，将从1万令吉提高至1万5000令吉，而房屋不得转售的期限，则将从10年缩短至5年。
PR1MA房屋供应不足
达证券分析员指，随着政府放宽PR1MA条例之后，将提高首次购屋者的人数。同时，缩短房屋不得转售期限，将进一步提升该计划的市场竞争力。
“虽然我们看好这项新措施，将对PR1MA房屋的需求带来正面影响，但相关房屋的供应不充足，特别是在城市地区。加上难以取得融资，这一般上是可负担房屋买家面对的挑战。”
此外，分析员认为，政府通过放宽条例，让PR1MA房屋对买家更具吸引力之后，华阳和建乐集团是最大输家，因为他们主要关注在可负担房屋。
此外，正面的角度来看，分析员相信，建乐集团优先在关丹兴建PR1MA的经验，将有助公司未来取得更多相关合约。
整体而言，分析员维持产业领域的“减持”投资评级，因为相信市场下行风险，如市场情绪疲弱、供应增加，以及银行收紧放贷，预计将持续对产业销售造成压力。
同时，过去数年的产业销售减少，以及重大市场营销和促销活动导致赚幅收窄，这将进一步成为净利下滑的下行风险。
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CIMB Research retains Hold on Aemulus
KUALA LUMPUR: CIMB Equities Research is maintaining its Hold recommendation on Aemulus Holdings Bhd with a higher target price of 25 sen as it expects the semiconductor-related company to return to profitability in 2017.
It said on Tuesday the target price was based on 16 times CY18F price-to-earnings (P/E), which is a 20% discount to sector P/E vs. 30% previously due to improving industry outlook.
“We expect Aemulus to return to profitability in FY17, driven by new tester products and industry demand recovery. Moreover, we see stronger demand from China in FY17 following management's decision to set up a new regional office last year,” it said.
On Monday, Aemulus announced it was buying 1.63 acres of land in Bayan Lepas Industrial Park, Penang for RM9.9mil. The company plans to build a corporate office building, and a product testing and design centre on the currently vacant site.
This is as part of the group’s initiative to consolidate its existing operations in Bayan Baru and Batu Maung under one roof to improve its operating efficiencies as it is currently renting the two separate facilities on Penang island.
“Aemulus expects the new facility to be completed in Dec 2018. The new facility will have a bigger built-up area of 50,000 sq ft compared with the combined 20,000 sq ft of its existing operations.
“Aemulus is also allocating 6,000 sq ft for the Leap-O-Pad programme, which is part of the local government's initiatives to build up a startup ecosystem. The programme encompasses startup accelerators, mentorship and provision of laboratory and workstations,” it said.
CIMB Research noted that Aemulus plans to invest about RM25m over the next three years in the research and development of new tester equipment and also for the land's acquisition cost.
Management plans to finance the expansion through internal funds and bank borrowings.
“We are not overly concerned on the funding issue given that Aemulus still has a net cash of RM26.7mil as at Sep 2016. Although it could incur finance cost from higher borrowings, this will be offset from the rental costs saved.
“The global semiconductor market research group, SEMI, projected worldwide semiconductor equipment sales to grow 9.3% in 2017 (vs. 8.7% in 2016), primarily due to strong demand for wafer processing equipment. Growth should be mainly driven by robust demand from developed markets such as North America, Europe and South Korea.
“Meanwhile, Gartner is also projecting stronger 7.2% industry sales growth in 2017 (vs. 1.5% in 2016), driven by inventory replenishment and higher average selling prices,” said the research house.
It said on Tuesday the target price was based on 16 times CY18F price-to-earnings (P/E), which is a 20% discount to sector P/E vs. 30% previously due to improving industry outlook.
“We expect Aemulus to return to profitability in FY17, driven by new tester products and industry demand recovery. Moreover, we see stronger demand from China in FY17 following management's decision to set up a new regional office last year,” it said.
On Monday, Aemulus announced it was buying 1.63 acres of land in Bayan Lepas Industrial Park, Penang for RM9.9mil. The company plans to build a corporate office building, and a product testing and design centre on the currently vacant site.
This is as part of the group’s initiative to consolidate its existing operations in Bayan Baru and Batu Maung under one roof to improve its operating efficiencies as it is currently renting the two separate facilities on Penang island.
“Aemulus expects the new facility to be completed in Dec 2018. The new facility will have a bigger built-up area of 50,000 sq ft compared with the combined 20,000 sq ft of its existing operations.
“Aemulus is also allocating 6,000 sq ft for the Leap-O-Pad programme, which is part of the local government's initiatives to build up a startup ecosystem. The programme encompasses startup accelerators, mentorship and provision of laboratory and workstations,” it said.
CIMB Research noted that Aemulus plans to invest about RM25m over the next three years in the research and development of new tester equipment and also for the land's acquisition cost.
Management plans to finance the expansion through internal funds and bank borrowings.
“We are not overly concerned on the funding issue given that Aemulus still has a net cash of RM26.7mil as at Sep 2016. Although it could incur finance cost from higher borrowings, this will be offset from the rental costs saved.
“The global semiconductor market research group, SEMI, projected worldwide semiconductor equipment sales to grow 9.3% in 2017 (vs. 8.7% in 2016), primarily due to strong demand for wafer processing equipment. Growth should be mainly driven by robust demand from developed markets such as North America, Europe and South Korea.
“Meanwhile, Gartner is also projecting stronger 7.2% industry sales growth in 2017 (vs. 1.5% in 2016), driven by inventory replenishment and higher average selling prices,” said the research house.
Monday, January 23, 2017
HAIO – FY17 Q2 Updates (22 Jan 2017) - L. C. Chong
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Mon, 23 Jan 2017, 12:15 AM
I would like to provide some updates about my action plan on HAIO. Since Mar 2016, HAIO has been very astonishing, increased from 2.4 to 4.28, close to 78% increase.
This is beyond my expectation. Now, I have a happy problem to solve. That is I have to decide whether I should continue to accumulate the stock, sell the stock or hold the stock.
To make decision, I have to look into three aspects. Firstly, the growth drivers that support the price performance. Secondly, challenges that will probably suppress good story of HAIO. Lastly, the valuation. Is it fully valued, overvalued or undervalued?
Growth Drivers
Based on the recent quarterly results, for MLM division, revenue and pre-tax profit increased by about 70% and more than double to RM77.5 million and RM 16 million respectively as compared to FY16 Q2. Additional sales from new products and higher recurring sales of consumer products from member customers and the increase in monthly recruited new members had helped to boost revenue and profit for the division. The new members recruited had increased by more than double to approximately 40,000 which had contributed to a higher sales to the MLM division.
6 Sep 2016 – The group aims to expand to the Middle East, China, India, Sri Lanka and Europe via partnerships to explore the market for products for women, such as fashion, accessories and cosmetics.
A short term (possible) boost – As Chinese New Year festive season is approaching, the Retail division will carry out an extensive CNY promotion campaign and is expecting to bring in more revenue in the next quarter. As reported in recent quarterly results, Currently, the Retail division has started recruiting more Chinese physicians for its outlets to enhance its image as a healthcare service provider and to attract more crowd. Whereas for the MLM division, it will continue to intensify its new members recruitment program and to roll out more new products in the second half of the year.
Challenges
Performance of the wholesale and retail division still weak.
Wholesale division – Revenue decreased by about 30% to RM 11.7 million as compared to FY16 Q2 of RM 16.8 million. The decrease in revenue was mainly attributable to lower sales generated from duty-free goods and Chinese medicated tonic as most of the medical halls had reduced their stockholding level since the increase in selling price early of this financial year.
Retail Division – Despite continuous weak consumer sentiment in the domestic market, revenue decreased marginally by about 2.6% to RM 9.3 million as compared FY16 Q2. The pre-tax profit declined by approximately 31% mainly due to lower A&P income subsidy from suppliers and a drop in sales of the higher margin house-brand products.
The Wholesale division will continue to be affected by the weakening of RM currency as about 40% of its purchases are imported. The division sees that its profit margin will be adversely affected in the near future and has looked into more trade settlement using RMB currency instead of USD with the traders in China.
Weak purchasing power of consumers.
Valuation
Refer to my updated financial modelling, I opined that HAIO is currently overvalued at 4.28.
Action Plan
Refer to the above table, my holding price is in the range of 2.1 and 2.3 (the ugly scenario). Besides, my dividend yield is around 9%. So I will continue to hold HAIO.
https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2017/01/23/haio-fy17-q2-updates-22-jan-2017/
I would like to provide some updates about my action plan on HAIO. Since Mar 2016, HAIO has been very astonishing, increased from 2.4 to 4.28, close to 78% increase.
This is beyond my expectation. Now, I have a happy problem to solve. That is I have to decide whether I should continue to accumulate the stock, sell the stock or hold the stock.
To make decision, I have to look into three aspects. Firstly, the growth drivers that support the price performance. Secondly, challenges that will probably suppress good story of HAIO. Lastly, the valuation. Is it fully valued, overvalued or undervalued?
Growth Drivers
Based on the recent quarterly results, for MLM division, revenue and pre-tax profit increased by about 70% and more than double to RM77.5 million and RM 16 million respectively as compared to FY16 Q2. Additional sales from new products and higher recurring sales of consumer products from member customers and the increase in monthly recruited new members had helped to boost revenue and profit for the division. The new members recruited had increased by more than double to approximately 40,000 which had contributed to a higher sales to the MLM division.
6 Sep 2016 – The group aims to expand to the Middle East, China, India, Sri Lanka and Europe via partnerships to explore the market for products for women, such as fashion, accessories and cosmetics.
A short term (possible) boost – As Chinese New Year festive season is approaching, the Retail division will carry out an extensive CNY promotion campaign and is expecting to bring in more revenue in the next quarter. As reported in recent quarterly results, Currently, the Retail division has started recruiting more Chinese physicians for its outlets to enhance its image as a healthcare service provider and to attract more crowd. Whereas for the MLM division, it will continue to intensify its new members recruitment program and to roll out more new products in the second half of the year.
Challenges
Performance of the wholesale and retail division still weak.
Wholesale division – Revenue decreased by about 30% to RM 11.7 million as compared to FY16 Q2 of RM 16.8 million. The decrease in revenue was mainly attributable to lower sales generated from duty-free goods and Chinese medicated tonic as most of the medical halls had reduced their stockholding level since the increase in selling price early of this financial year.
Retail Division – Despite continuous weak consumer sentiment in the domestic market, revenue decreased marginally by about 2.6% to RM 9.3 million as compared FY16 Q2. The pre-tax profit declined by approximately 31% mainly due to lower A&P income subsidy from suppliers and a drop in sales of the higher margin house-brand products.
The Wholesale division will continue to be affected by the weakening of RM currency as about 40% of its purchases are imported. The division sees that its profit margin will be adversely affected in the near future and has looked into more trade settlement using RMB currency instead of USD with the traders in China.
Weak purchasing power of consumers.
Valuation
Refer to my updated financial modelling, I opined that HAIO is currently overvalued at 4.28.
Action Plan
Refer to the above table, my holding price is in the range of 2.1 and 2.3 (the ugly scenario). Besides, my dividend yield is around 9%. So I will continue to hold HAIO.
https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2017/01/23/haio-fy17-q2-updates-22-jan-2017/
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