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Saturday, December 31, 2016

白桦的诗《船》,王德顺朗诵

Stock Picks 2017

Author: 峰中奇缘 | Publish date: Sat, 31 Dec 2016, 07:18 AM

Stockpicks for 2017
Analysts expect better showing with the next general election among major catalysts

WHAT does 2017 hold for the FBM KLCI?

Malaysian investors have had a rough ride.

It’s been three years of consecutive declines for Bursa Malaysia. Besides the lacklustre equity market, the weakening ringgit and oil prices have not been spared.

The ringgit retreated to its 14-month low against the US dollar, lingering at the 4.47 level on prospects of further US interest rate rises next year. Not helping the situation were the oil prices, which stagnated at the US$45 levels for the better part of 2016. Globally, there were black swan events like Brexit and Donald Trump’s victory as US president, which further rattled the market.

It’s been shocks and speed bumps all year round. Will the misery come to an end? Areca Capital chief executive officer Danny Wong is, however, positioning for a rebound.

“We think that the domestic market has priced in a lot of negative events. The downside should be rather limited. We are optimistic about 2017. There is always sunshine after the rain,” he says.

Wong says that 2016 turned out to be another challenging year, while meaningful market recovery failed to gain traction.

“For 2014, 2015 and 2016 year-todate, the local index has declined -5.66%, -3.90% and -3.68%, respectively, or a cumulative loss of 12.68% since 2014,” says Wong.

Nonetheless, indicators are pointing towards a better 2017 and he foresees long-term investors accumulating in advance.

UOB Kay Hian Research head Vincent Khoo is also seeing opportunity amid the bleakness.

“Yes, 2017 remains a challenging year for emerging-market equities amid rising US interest rates, and growing protectionism in the western world, while the global economic growth prospects remain lacklustre. On the home front, the ringgit continues to be besieged by a major confidence issue.

“Nevertheless, the FBM KLCI should deliver some excitement in the first-half of 2017, led by a firmer ringgit outlook, investors pricing in a potential general election (GE), and a modest realignment of corporate earnings growth to gross domestic product growth, after four consecutive years of earnings contractions,” says Khoo.

MIDF Amanah Investment director of corporate investment banking Sherilyn Foong is also more positive on the market.

She says that most people forget that the real economy and the stock market are different animals.

“The stock market is forward-looking and is prone to swings of exuberance to either side, hence, the often-used phrase ‘fear versus greed’.

“While signs are pointing to a tough year ahead, emerging data supporting a resilient and well-diversified Malaysian economy, especially when compared with the Asian crisis, could mean an unexpected stock market rebound spurred by unique local catalysts.”

She says that 2017 is going to be a stock-picking year. “Initial public offerings (IPOs) are a segment to watch and be invested in,” she says.

Several signs

Areca’s Wong says there are a few factors that support the case for a turnaround in the Malaysian economy.

“There are signs of corporate earnings having bottomed out after many quarters of decline with cost-rationalisation efforts. Consumer sentiment as measured by the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research has also bounced off its lows.”

Wong says that cashed-up local institutional funds are primed to deploy their cash after the certainty of the Trump election and US rate hikes.

“There are heightened expectations that the 14th GE will be in 2017. Potential election spending may benefit certain stocks. There are also expectations that 2017 will be a turnaround year for new issuances, IPOs and mergers and acquisitions of some big conglomerates and Government-linked companies,” he says.

Kenanga Investment head of research Chan Ken Yew, meanwhile, says that the market is likely to be volatile in view of the more aggressive rate hike decision in the US.

“The policy and direction of the Trump presidency could spark more uncertainties. The good news, however, could be the emergence of the GE theme play, which could uphold the local equity market’s investment sentiment. In short, we reckon that 2017 will be another range-bound year,” he says.

Chan adds that the play on Bursa Malaysia will not be broad-based and most likely be stock-specific.

Khoo thinks that the FBM KLCI could stretch to the 1,750 to 1,800point level in the first half, before easing back to the 1,730-point level at end-2017, as investors refocus on Malaysia’s subdued long-term economic and corporate earnings trends.

The year-end 2017 target still implies a valuation premium to the historical mean price earnings multiple of 14.7 times, after taking into account ample domestic liquidity.

Khoo says that should even the US 10-year treasury yield rise to 3%, he foresees a relatively benign global interest rate climate, inclusive of the key European countries’ long-term Government bond yields.

“Effectively, subdued global economic growth prospects would eventually mitigate the current uptrend inflationary pressures,” says Khoo.

More importantly, Khoo does not foresee heavy portfolio outflows from Malaysian Government Securities (MGS), as most of the short-term investors have probably sold down their holdings. The foreign holdings of MGS is equivalent to about 45% of Malaysia’s foreign reserves.

“The long-term foreign investors continue to like the MGS’ high rate relative to the sovereign bond rates in the advanced economies,” he says.

Khoo’s expectations for a firmer ringgit, which is an important market rerating catalyst, reflects the sustained recovery of crude oil prices to the US$55-per-barrel range, following production cuts by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and key non-Opec producers, and Bank Negara’s recent requirement for exporters to effectively retain a substantial proportion of export proceeds in ringgit.

“This scenario relieves pressure on Malaysia’s fiscal deficit and helps preserve the country’s foreign-currency reserves. Eventually, we foresee some confidence returning on the currency front, benefitting from the cumulative effect of Malaysian exporters’ forced repatriation.

“Second is the acceptance that today’s form of capital controls would not degenerate and extend to foreign portfolio funds, and thirdly, Malaysian banks providing adequate facilitation for US-dollar hedging for both the real economy and capital markets,” explains Khoo.

While Wong feels the ringgit will likely remain volatile, there are a few catalysts that could rerate it upwards.

Firstly, the ringgit has decoupled from oil prices, and if it starts moving in tandem with crude oil again, it should be poised for a sharp recovery.

Also, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak’s visit to China has resulted in projects close to RM143bil being signed. The RM55bil East Coast Rail Line, set to be built and financed by China, is also expected to start next year.

From Bank Negara’s foreign-exchange measures, analysts estimate that there could be around RM90bil held by local exporters in foreign currency. The conversion of such funds will bolster the country’s foreign reserves. Bank Negara’s international reserves stand at RM405.5bil.

Investment themes

Areca’s Wong maintains an “overweight” call on big caps and high-dividend yielders.

“We see even more value emerging after Trump’s victory and rate hike sell-offs. We are positioning ourselves for a market rebound,” he says.

Investment strategy-wise, Khoo advocates a trading strategy as he foresees a choppy equity market, given the many geo-political events. He continues to be partial to selected small mid-caps.

Investment themes in 2017 include infra and building material plays, electrical and electronics trend riders, quality dividend plays and GE picks.

Khoo is overweight on the construction, building materials, electrical and electronics, and utilities sectors. He also sees selective outperformers within the rubber glove and real estate investment trust or Reit sectors. “However, we continue to be underweight on cyclical sectors such as automotive. The outlook for the property sector remains subdued. We are market weight on the oil and gas (O&G) sector, as the

recovery in crude oil prices would still not rekindle or accelerate most of the shelved or deferred O&G projects in Malaysia. Nonetheless, higher oil prices should rerate some overly depressed O&G stocks,”

Khoo’s top picks include largecaps such as BIMB Holdings Bhd, Gamuda Bhd, Genting Bhd and Tenaga Nasional Bhd. For the small caps, he likes Ann Joo Resources Bhd, Bumi Armada Bhd, Hume Industries Bhd, Kerjaya Prospek Group Bhd, Kim Loong Resources Bhd, MRCB Quill Bhd and VS Industry Bhd.

Meanwhile, Kenanga’s Chan likes the plastic packaging segment. In general, he likes players such as Scientex Bhd, SLP Resources Bhd and SCGM Bhd.

“We are also positioning ourselves for the O&G sector and plantations, in particular when crude oil and crude palm oil prices become more sustainable. We are also looking at some yield stocks and stocks that were heavily sold down by foreign investors recently, for example, the telco sector,” he says.

Chan is still cautious on the property sector, given the tighter liquidity and credit lending.

Nonetheless, he likes affordable housing developers like Matrix Concepts Holdings Bhd. For the O&G sector, apart from sustained oil prices, Chan will only turn more optimistic should Petroliam Nasional Bhd start to revise its capital expenditure.



Extracted and modified from The Star newspaper “stock picks for 2017”

Friday, December 30, 2016

[转贴] 财务体检 - 水星

Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Fri, 30 Dec 2016, 03:39 PM

Thursday, December 29, 2016

来到2016年的最后交易日, 忙碌着生活,工作或留意着股市有无橱窗粉饰的你,也别忘了为自己做个财务体检, 就好像身体健康检查一样, 定时检验, 让自己的财务往前冲锋之余,也不忘为基础保养检视,确保无恙.

几个简单的数据助你大略了解自己的财务健康状况

~储蓄比例

过去一年的储蓄额除以过去一年的总收入. 一般建议水平是应该至少达到10%, 但个人觉得能做到至少20%以上为佳. 至于有能力存下90%以上的人, 除非你是超高薪者,否则要提醒你自律性强固然是好事,但为了存钱而虐待自己并不是值得鼓励的理财方式哦.

~紧急基金指数

确保自己所保留包括银行定存在内的现金, 足以应付3-6个月包括分期付款的个人开销. 运用闲钱投资, 做决策时才不会被财务上的突发状况例如失去工作或收入减少影响判断或陷入被逼以低价出让投资的尴尬. 不过, 对于保有一年份以上紧急基金的人, 本身则觉得是过于保守了,不妨在投资方面积极一些.

~债务对收入比例

过去一年的债务还款加起来(除了房贷,车贷,保险以外,也别忘了加上一些年度式定期还款的费用如路税, 车险和 一些会员费等), 再除以一年的总收入, 建议比例不超过35%, 否则反映出你承担了比自己能力更高风险的负债, 需要考虑减少固定开销的必要性.

~资产对支出比例

净资产/年度支出, 这是不少理财师都会提到的算式, 所算出来的数字, 基本上就是代表着,你在没有任何现金流入的前提下, 只靠”吃老本”来过活, 能让你活多少年. 基本上数字越大反映出财务越稳固, 值得一提的是, 我们或许会很惊讶的知道不少人算出来的数字会少于1,也就是说失去收入后自己无法活超过一年, 是一个莫大的警号.

~被动收入比例

过去一年的被动式收入占据了你过往一年所有收入的比例, 这是衡量你的钱有没有在为你工作的重要数据. 这比例,就每个人的年纪不同而会有不一样的标准. 一般而言,年纪较轻的人, 可能刚就业不久, 薪金储蓄不多, 或者买了过大的房子, 导致可用于投资的钱较少, 被动收入占据总收入的比例少于10%也是正常情形. 如果你年纪大约40岁的话,这比例最好能超过50%, 逐步减少对工作或其它需要付出大量时间与劳力的收入的依赖.

犹如有些人排斥和讨厌做身体检查, 深怕知道自己的身体有什么毛病而麻烦多多并影响自己的心情, 排斥让自己赤裸裸地面对财务状况的人也很多, 抱着”不去想就没事”的态度, 想交由时间去解决自己的金钱问题, 殊不知这样一直逃避下去, 时间不但不会成为你的朋友, 更会成为你的敌人, 让你的财务问题累积得越来越多.

简单的财务体检, 让你了解自己那方面做得不错, 那方面不足可以在来年加强, 知道自己的问题所在, 才能对症下药.

切记, 最困难的, 并不是面对各种挫折打击, 而是面对各种挫折打击时, 依然不失去对人世的热情.

Posted by 水星 at 7:02 PM

http://mercurychong.blogspot.my/2016/12/blog-post_29.html

Cypark sees 45% increase in 4Q earnings, boosted by landfill ops

By Syahirah Syed Jaafar / theedgemarkets.com | December 30, 2016 : 7:04 PM MYT

KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 30): Cypark Resources Bhd recorded a net profit of RM11.9 million or 4.75 sen per share in its fourth quarter ended Oct 31, 2016 (4QFY16), up 45% from RM8.19 million or 3.9 sen per share a year ago, mainly attributed by income generated from its landfill operation as well as its Ladang Tanah Merah project.

According to its Bursa Malaysia filing today, 4QFY16 revenue rose 21.3% to RM67.6 million as compared to RM55.74 million a year ago, mainly due to an increase in work activities of Phase 2 of the environmental engineering project at Ladang Tanah Merah and also some newly secured projects during the quarter.

For the full-year period (FY16), Cypark's profit climbed 16.5% to RM50.68 million from RM43.52 million due to additional tax provision required for non-tax-exempted projects in current financial year.

Revenue increased to RM282.93 million compared to RM251.85 million in FY15.

The company said the public's demand for a cleaner and greener solution for waste management and disposal facilities have generated opportunities for Cypark to implement its innovative waste-to-energy technology, the SMART-WTE.

Cypark is currently constructing the SMART-WTE plant in Ladang Tanah Merah, Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia. This plant will exclusively cater for most of the waste generated in the state of Negeri Sembilan for the next 25 years. Once completed in 2017, the plant will be the nation's first and largest state-of-the-art green waste-to-energy plant.

Based on its input capacity of 1,000 tonne per day and design capacity of 20MWh, the plant is expected to generate revenue of more than RM80 million annually, said the company.

Cypark Resources shares closed down three sen or 1.42% at RM2.08, bringing it a market capitalisation of RM526.11 million.

BIOALPHA On Going Study Case #1

Author: leonnoel | Publish date: Thu, 29 Dec 2016, 10:33 PM

[Writing extents ideas and make them sound. ]

Bioalpha is the second stock I picked in my just began investing life with much more in depth research compare to the first.

(The first being Maybank at 7.73 without much concerns except amazing dividend, strong asset, government backup, and reverse investing)

[I am new to the scene, certain of many wrongs, and couple of questions. Sober comments are welcome.]

Bioalpha in a nutshell. It sell raw herbs, finished health supplyment goods and provide packaging, processing services for raw herbs. Just brought pramacy to promote its finished goods' brand.

Bioalpha have been through a 3 for 1 bonus issue on 07/09/2016 and a right issue at .20 with warrant ex-price .22 executable anytime and maturity date of 5 years releasing somewhere around January 2017. Dilluted EPS. It was nice to hear Bioalpha release dividend, but is so insignificant sometime I wonder is it worth the cost to issue it. After all we don’t come for dividend when picking the fast growers.

[I don’t understand how bonus issue is a way of rewarding investor when there is other methods such as dividend or stock buyback]

Reason for picking Bioalpha up even though the PE is relatively high around 21.08 at .205 [Got the eps on trading platform]

Point 1. Bioalpha has stable profit, there are not a year with losses. Of course it does not proof much considering it only has about two and a half year data on I3.

Point 2. Diverse Revenue, last quarter 30% China 30% Indonesia 40% Malaysia

Point 3. Halal Certificate, great stuff. Malaysia’s halal Cert is well received in many countries( like Indonesia).

Point 4. Revenue-profit repression. This is difficult to measure since Bioalpha profit margin differ so much quarter through quarter (maybe I should look into its gross profits). However simply looking at its 2016 revenue-profit does not quite match, in the quarterly report, director also mentioned the increase of cost related to R&D, product expansions and acquisition of a pharmacy company. Which mean once the costs (except R&D, the rest are all sunk cost) cease/reduces, profit would show improvement.



Point 5. Potential, upon all things this make the most sound to me. Gathering 26 M from right issues + its own expenses, Bioalpha is planning to launch 27 Products throughout 2017~18 in Indonesia, Malaysia and China. Indonesia will be the main focus, there is already a herb plant processing factory setup and ready to use once the license is authorized by the local authority. It has 1023 acres of land borrowed with 28 years contract, use for herb plantation, where only 123.5 acres is planted and 10% of 123.5 acres is harvestable. They plan to fully plant the land on 2018 and those herb would be fully harvestable (enter production cycle) on 2020. I am hyped when I read the report (just as hype as when I see the warrant has a maturity of 5 years, executable anytime).





Point 6. Cash Flow, last quarter 15m. Cool. Total Debt low, I forgotten how much. Is an amount that can be clean up immediately if they want to use this cash flow.



Point 7. Confident directors. Brought shares, A LOT of shares. Promised if there are excess right issues, will execute up to 75% of total right issues(this made the future calculation of shares volume easier, probably 99% of the right issues will be executed).





Negative 1. The acquisition of now call Constant Pharmacies does not sound good to me. Judging by its line of business, and yet developed potential, this not so important thingy simply add in some distraction to operation.



Negative 2. PE is relatively high 21.08 at .205 (If grow does not happen and PE drop to 15, the price would be at .145. Of course we still yet to see 2016 Q4 EPS)



My decision is mainly made on top of Bioalpha potential, diversity and cash flow. I assume for a fast grower (grow type stock) PE of 21 is still acceptable, hopefully I am right. Will be keeping in touch with this stock per quarter. I expect to keep this stock for 1~3 years depending on the adjustment from quarterly report.



Do tell me if you think what I stated is wrong, with a sensible why, please.

The thing I am most afraid of is I mistaken the EPS ---> messup PE and brought at expensive price like PE at 30+



--------------------

[Bioalpha report mentioned something call share issuance scheme which somehow related to options, if someone know what this means kindly do tell]



-------------------------

[I don't understand how the exercise of warrants and options will not dillute eps]





---------------------------------



P.S. kcchongnz you are great. Keep up the good work. (Computing cumulative EV, ROIC, almost any kind of ratio from quarterly report using average method is harder than I thought)

EG工业:冷爷收着但是不说 附新厂谍照

Author: kakashit | Publish date: Fri, 30 Dec 2016, 12:21 PM

减持母股,增持凭单

截至10月21日的财报,冷眼的母股股份从2015年的3.1m 股减至 2m股,大砍35%。

而凭单则从1.55m增至2.5m股,大增61%。
NameTypeListing DateMaturity DateExercise PriceWarrant PriceRatioPremiumGearingEG-WC Warrants 11/11/2015 03/11/2020 0.50 0.535 1:1 0.155 (17.61%) 1.644

EG-WC距离2020年还有3年才到期。

股友们都知道凭单的作用就是拿来小刀锯大树,舍弃股息(如果有的话),追求资本增值。

EG-WC杠杆率为1.6倍,简单来讲,只要母股起10%,凭单就会起16%。

该凭单的转换价为50仙,距离现在的股价80仙以上还有一段安全距离,只要不跌破50仙,就不会沦为废纸。

溢价也才17%,就是目前来讲买凭单会比买母股贵17%而已。

所以也不难理解为什么冷爷会选择风险较高的凭单,经过深入分析后。

官老爷我不看在眼里

当然,在最新的三十大股东内已经看不到官有缘或是他妻子的名字,我认为毫无关注的必要。

这两年我观察到官有缘股票有赚就自夸自己有多厉害,股票亏了就不记得,很明显他是有选择性失忆。

如今的他好像变本加厉,走火入魔,反正我剩下的时间不多了,儿子也长大了,无后顾之忧,就把这个世界玩转吧的感觉。

就像是现在的马哈迪,现在诸多的问题都是他20多年来执政遗留下来的老鼠屎,还要出来批评政府,搞到大家对他连一丝的尊敬也都没有了。

专业人士管理 破除守旧 大胆创新

自从2014年,EG工业的戴氏家族离去,新加坡大股东加入,进入改朝换代的阶段。

年约42岁的江邦建Alex Kang从执行董事提拔为总执行长。这位从低做起的干部,采取了奖励机制,勤奋的员工肯定能获得奖励,没有过去所谓的老臣子,AB派系。

“He joined EG Group since 1999 and was appointed as Group Chief Executive Officer on 18 July 2014.

He had also secured two awards from the Malaysian Investor Relations Association (MIRA) as the Best Chief Executive Officer and Best Investor Relations Professional under the Micro-cap category of “The Investor Relations Awards 2015”. The awards honour excellent performers in the field of Investor Relations by both professionals and listed entities in Malaysia.”

每次我们来到,Alex都不厌其烦的向股东报告公司的进展。










有看到机器不断地转动,员工辛勤地劳动,心里还是会比较踏实的。

相信这就是冷爷作为大户的优势吧,而他也不会在新书或讲座告诉你们我之所以酱厉害是因为我有去看厂,掌握内部资讯所以懂得比你们多,科科。

话说回来,这是EG位于吉打总公司隔壁扩建的新厂,就是专门负责Box Build等高利润订单生产线的基地。



作为电子业不进则退,潮流很快变,产品推陈出新很快。

看来Alex是说到做到,在短短一年内的时间拿合约有合约,买机器有机器。,而且还有剩余17m令吉资金来进行扩张与提升。

如果管理层是有进取心,肯拼的,那么十三倍本益比以下也不会贵。

随着令吉的贬值,中国的工资已经跟我们同等了,泰国越南的薪资也不断的飙涨,我国的制造业仍有相对性的优势。

曾淵滄:特朗普概念 有危有機

http://www.mpfinance.com/fin/columnist2.php?col=1463481132566&node=1483035822536&issue=20161230
文章日期:2016年12月30日

【明報專訊】今天是港股於2016年的最後一個交易日,希望大戶能稍為努力粉飾櫥窗,使到2016年恒指收市位能高於2015年,讓股民高興高興。

2016年有不少股出現明顯的見底回升之勢,但是,很可惜的是這些見底回升的股在近一個月都面對調整的壓力,騰訊(0700)從220元的高位下破180元才於聖誕節過後反彈,匯控(0005)也由44元的低位升至67元然後面對調整,銀娛(0027)由19元的低位回升至39元,升幅達一倍,但是也在近日大幅調整20%,類似的例子非常多。

面對這種走勢,投資者最擔心是所謂見底回升的走勢是不是已結束?是不是該止賺?在什麼價位止賺?止賺後在什麼價位可以再買進?你會不會於騰訊跌至200元時賣掉止賺,然後於190元再買回,之後於180元時再賣掉止蝕?止蝕後見到騰訊股價再反彈,怎麼辦?想止賺然後趁低再買入的短炒戰略是很難執行的。

明年或波幅更大 趁調整短炒

不論今天恒指收市會不會高於2015年的收市位,2017年肯定是波動很大的一年,最大的不穩定來自特朗普,今日美國股民在熱炒特朗普概念,不過,特朗普出了名是不按章法出牌的人,他的行動可能會令全球投資者意想不到,可以是憧憬,也可以是震驚,特別是他開口閉口說要向中國入口的貨品繳收高關稅,以懲罰中國政府人為的壓低人民幣幣值,中國政府怎麼會坐以待斃?貿易戰的結果對股市是好是壞?特朗普很可能重新挑起中東的戰爭,特朗普可能迫使日本宣布製造核武器以自保,理由是日本不願意交保護費給美國。

當然,特朗普概念股也會繼續在2017年炒作,這包括資源股、金融股、基建股,特朗普將大興土木搞基建,將減稅以吸引美國企業在美國生產,將放寬監管金融機構,因此資源股、金融股、基建股很自然地成為特朗普概念股,問題是這些概念股已經炒作了一段時間,會不會在特朗普正式上任前出現回吐,正如香港多隻於2016年見底回升的股於2016年將結束前由高位向下調整,如果特朗普概念股於2017年1月出現調整,對短炒者而言,又是一次摸底估底的遊戲。

2016年港股波幅巨大,最終恒指與2015年底變化不大,展望2017年波幅或更大,應該是短炒者好好表演的時機,但短炒始終不容易。

大學教授

[曾淵滄 滄海明珠]

FPGROUP (5277) - 2017年必买之股

Author: VCBL | Publish date: Thu, 29 Dec 2016, 04:06 PM

既然阿Boon 兄已在他的新作 < 新股上市 - FPGROUP - 阿Boon >

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/112605.jsp 详细剖析了 Foundpac Group 的上市业绩报告,我也不在此再画蛇添足了。

那为什么我的标题说 FPGROUP (5277) - 是 2017 年必买之股呢?我的浅见是基於以下 6 个強点 :
  • FPGROUP 的收入几乎 100% 是外汇,恰是最好的出口股代表。在当今马币每天每况愈下的趋势之下,FPGROUP 的外汇差价真的是肥过肥仔水,令公司厍房猪笼入水。
  • 以它的最新年度化营业额 RM 44,108,000 来计算,净利竟然是惊人的 RM 16,432,000 或 37.25% 的净赚率 。环视所有已在大马交易所上市的公司,能有此净赚率的掛牌公司简直就是夙毛鳞角。
  • FPGROUP 拥有行业中霸王级或压倒性的晶片测试技术。这可是老人家口中 "可以吃过世" 的无形资产啊。它的无厂半导体公司(Fabless Semiconductor Company)技术与行销策略更是晶片业者当中的佼佼者,跑赢同业几条街。
  • 现在 FPGROUP 的营销主力还是在讯息产品如智慧型手机,网络器材,电讯产品等。在上市文件中略有提出公司欲拓展汽车通讯及无人驾驶技术 (Autonomous Driving)的市场与行销。这可是市场往后 10 到 20 年的当红炸子鸡产品,炙手可热!
  • 公司在 29/12/2016 上市了之后,大股东们还是紧握着超过 65% 的股权。这意味着大股东们 "惜货",更显示出他们对自家公司的未来充满着期待。
  • 另外一则小道消息说有些基金已经在一旁正磨拳擦掌准备扫入部分股票做为他们投资组合内的稳健基石。
阿 Boon 说以发售价 RM0.54来计算,本益比12 倍属于合理。但若假设市场愿意给予它更高的18-20 倍本益比 (PE Ratio) 估值,那么该股的股价将有望达到 RM0.81 至 RM0.90之间。

我个人认为 PE Ratio 是立位于公司以往的业绩。但是如果你肯接受我以上 6 个愚见,那以 RM 0.81 至 RM 0.90 的股价预测长远来说,简直就是以超比数低估了 FPGROUP 的未来股价潛能。

文龙

本人严正声明 :

任何投资者因此篇文章买卖峰畢 (FPGROUP),而蒙受投资损益,本人一概无法律责任承担。

T. Harv Eker - A Foolproof Plan To Succeed With Your New Year’s Resolutions

http://www.harveker.com/2016/12/27/foolproof-plan-succeed-new-years-resolutions/



Holidays can be stressful, yes? You’re making time for family gatherings, shopping, etc. For some people, just managing the holiday blues can be stressful enough without all the other commercial stuff.

And what do most people go and do? They make things even more stressful coming up with “resolutions” for the New Year because that’s what we’re supposed to do, right?

If we want to reach our goals, we’re supposed to identify what they are, figure out a plan for how we’re going to get there, and measure our results along the way to see how we’re doing. That’s Personal Development 101.

But let’s look into this a little deeper. I’d say the majority of people we work with make some sort of New Year’s resolution.

Of those who do, vast majorities are successful for that first week, but—unsurprising—by the end the month the numbers start to fall. By the end of six months the amount of successes are basically non-existent.

Studies have shown that from those who made a New Year’s resolution, only 8% of them are consistently successful with it.

The odds don’t look so great, true or true?

So you’re probably thinking, “Why the hell should I bother making New Year resolutions if there is a good chance I won’t succeed?”

Here’s why…

When it comes down to it, this is the difference between successful and unsuccessful people.

Successful people make decisions and stick to them and unsuccessful people don’t.

You’re either dead serious and 100% committed or you’re not. There is no in-between.

It’s really that simple.

Do I believe in resolutions? No not really. I don’t like them.

I like goals and I like intentions. I think resolutions are overrated but I love the idea behind them.

Look at an area you want improve or need to fix, make a commitment and do it.

But I think our society has lost sight of the process itself. It shouldn’t be ‘let’s just list everything you want to be different next year and change EVERYTHING’.

That’s the worst thing you can do. You won’t do everything so by listing everything and not doing it you’re now training yourself to NOT do what you said you would do.

That’s what unsuccessful people do. Remember we are creatures of habit.

You either have successful habits or unsuccessful habits.

We want you to build successful habits so here’s what I believe is your best chance to succeed.

First, only pick something that you’re SUPER serious and set on changing.

Something that you know deep down in your bones you want to make this thing happen.

This isn’t something that would be ‘nice to have’ or would be ‘great if it was different.’ No that’s a surefire way to fail.

Pick something that is a necessity for you to work on.

Once you have some ideas of what those necessities might be then I want you to pick only ONE resolution for now.

Why only one?

Well because the key here is to start small and create a win for yourself.

When you do this you create confidence, you create momentum and you move into more and more action.

If you have too many things going on there is a very good chance you won’t be able to do it all.

You’ll likely forget or get overwhelmed and you’ll slowly but surely start to fade away from what you wanted to achieve.

So make sure you stick to ONE resolution for now. Now when you start to engrain this resolution and it becomes part of your everyday life then and only then should you add a new resolution into your life to work on.

Fair? I hope you said yes.

And that’s it. Pretty simple, yes? It’s not anymore complicated than that.

Now for some good news!

Despite what sounds like bad odds of being successful with resolutions: People who make New Year’s resolutions are 10-times more likely to be successful at achieving their goals than those who don’t.

Duh, right?! You can’t be successful at something you haven’t defined yet.

So make sure you do something this year to improve your life and make it better than last year.

In summary, whatever resolution you make for the coming year, decide now how important it is to you, knowing deep down in your bones that fear, outdated habits or obstacles are not going to be enough to keep you from meeting your goals.

Don’t waste your time with things you aren’t SUPER serious about (for now).

And pick ONE resolution to start, no more!

Thursday, December 29, 2016

Malakoff Corporation – Powering Up The Region - Joey Ho


Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Thu, 29 Dec 2016, 06:05 PM



Joey Ho December 29, 2016

Cities across the world celebrated the year end festive season last week, with Christmas decorations lighting up streets and malls. During these celebrations, people admire the gorgeous displays, with little thought of what goes into powering them up. Imagine Christmas without electricity, not only will street decorations be without light, there will hardly be any festive mood in town.

Malakoff Corporation (Malakoff), an independent power producer (IPP) listed on the Main Board of Bursa Malaysia, is one of the companies which brighten up the festive season and every day of the year.

The Business

Incorporated in 1975, Malakoff started off as a plantation-based company, before a shift in the group’s corporate direction in 1993 led to the disposal of its plantation-based assets and the subsequent venture into the power sector.

The group was subsequently delisted in July 2007, after MMC Corporation’s wholly owned subsidiary, Nucleus Avenue, acquired Malakoff for RM9.3 billion. In 2015, Malakoff re-listed at RM1.80 per share, in one of Malaysia’s largest initial public offerings of the year, valuing the company at RM9 billion.

Currently, Malakoff boasts of an effective capacity of 6,346 megawatts comprising of seven power plants operating on oil, coal and gas. The group is also an international independent water and power producer with overseas projects located in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Australia and Oman. The overseas projects have a net power production capacity of 690 megawatts and a water desalination capacity of 444,800 cubic metres per day.

Financial Performance

Malakoff’s main revenue comes from the asset management division which is responsible for managing assets to achieve the greatest return and the process of monitoring and maintaining facilities systems.

In FY15, Malakoff reported lower revenue of RM5.3 billion due to scheduled outages of certain power plants as part of their maintenance cycles, as well as lower distillate firing. However, the group managed to achieve a higher net profit of RM453.2 million, boosted by lower finance costs and higher interest income.

While the group’s 9M16 revenue of RM4.4 billion looks set to exceed that of FY15, the bottom line, however, does not look too promising at RM265.2 million, making up just 58.5 percent of FY15 net profit.

Apart from the overall performance, Malakoff maintains a strong balance sheet position with a current ratio of 2.5 times as of 9M16, with cash and equivalents of RM2.1 billion making up 30.1 percent of the group’s total current assets.

Capacity Expansion Plans

In April 2016, Malakoff allocated RM900 million to fund the expansion of its power generation and water production capacity. The group’s expansion plan, which is expected to involve setting up new plants, acquiring other existing plants as well as expanding overseas, is targeted at increasing its power generation to 10,000 megawatts and water production to 677,200 cubic metres per day by 2020.

According to the Asian Development Bank, energy demand is projected to almost double in the Asia and Pacific region 2030. The organization estimates that the majority of the world’s energy poor are living in Asia-Pacific region, with over 700 million people without access to electricity and almost two billion people still burning wood, dung, and crop waste for energy.

The abovementioned indicates the growing demand for energy in the region, which could potentially benefit Malakoff as the countries develop. Apart from seeking opportunities in the Asia-Pacific region, Malakoff is also has its sights on other developed markets as well as the Middle Eastern and North African regions.

Valuation

As at 27 December 2016, Malakoff’s shares closed at RM1.39, representing a year-to-date decline of 13.1 percent.

The table shows a comparison of two other energy producers, YTL Power and Tenaga Nasional, based on their latest full year results.

Comparing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, Malakoff is currently trading at the highest valuation of 15.3 times P/E, while its dividend yield stands at 3.6 percent, falling behind larger rival, YTL Power. Malaysia’s state-controlled Tenaga Nasional appears to be the more attractive player in the industry, with its shares being traded at the lowest P/E of 10.4 times while still providing a dividend yield of 2.3 percent.

Given the relatively higher valuations and lack of concrete earnings potential ahead, we believe that Malakoff would need to do more to justify current valuations.



http://aspire.sharesinv.com/38226/malakoff-corporation-powering-up-the-region/

Apollo Food's 2Q profit slumps 55% as sales fall, costs rise


By Wong Ee Lin / theedgemarkets.com | December 29, 2016 : 7:04 PM MYT

KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 29): Apollo Food Holdings Bhd's net profit fell 55% to RM4.29 million in its second quarter ended Oct 31, 2016 (2QFY17) from RM9.64 million a year ago, on weaker sales and higher raw material costs.

Revenue fell 11% to RM48.13 million from RM53.8 million a year ago, as it recorded lower sales in both its local and overseas markets, Apollo Food's bourse filing today showed.

The decline in overseas sales had also weakened both realised and unrealised foreign exchange gains earned during the quarter, the company said.

For the cumulative six months ended Oct 31, 2016 (1HFY17), its net profit dropped 52% to RM9.99 million from RM20.83 million in the same period last year, though revenue only dipped 5% to RM98.11 million from RM103.73 million.

"In view of the increase in costs of raw materials and the volatility of the ringgit against foreign currencies, the group expects its operating environment to be tougher in both the current and coming financial years," said Apollo Food, adding the market will continue to remain competitive.

Nevertheless, it said its board is confident the group will be able to maintain its market position by implementing prudent measures and improving operational efficiency, and achieve satisfactory results in the coming year.

Shares of Apollo Food fell 5 sen or 0.9% to close at RM5.40 today for a market capitalisation of RM436 million.

Econpile, China firm JV bags RM389m SUKE contract

By Adela Megan Willy / theedgemarkets.com | December 28, 2016 : 7:31 PM MYT

KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 28): Econpile Holdings Bhd, along with its joint venture partner China Communications Construction Co (M) Sdn Bhd (CCCC), has won a RM389.07 million contract to undertake foundation, substructures and other ancillary works for Package SUKE-CA3 of the Sungai Besi-Ulu Kelang Elevated Expressway (SUKE) project.

In a filing with Bursa Malaysia today, Econpile said its wholly-owned subsidiary Econpile (M) Sdn Bhd (EMSB) and CCCC have received a letter of award dated Dec 22, 2016 from Gabungan Strategik Sdn Bhd for the proposed project.

Based on the pre-bidding arrangement, the scope of work will be split between EMSB and CCCC in a 40:60 ratio.

“Under the contract, EMSB’s portion of work amounts to RM158.27 million, out of the total contract sum of RM389.07 million awarded to CCCC and EMSB,” said Econpile.

The overall duration of the contract is 17 months.

“The contract is the main stream business of EMSB and is expected to contribute positively to the revenue and earnings of Econpile for the financial year ending June 30, 2017,” the group said.

Econpile’s share price closed three sen or 1.61% lower at RM1.83 today, valuing it at RM979.05 million.

Scientex buys Johor land from Lee Rubber for RM123.64m

By Anette Appaduray / theedgemarkets.com | December 28, 2016 : 6:41 PM MYT

KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 28): Scientex Bhd is buying two parcels of land in Kulai, Johor, measuring 121.1967 acres from Singapore-based Lee Rubber Co (Pte) Ltd for RM123.64 million cash.

The proposed acquisition would be a strategic investment opportunity to increase and boost the company's existing landbank at a strategic location, said Scientex.

In a filing with Bursa Malaysia today, Scientex said its wholly-owned subsidiary Scientex Quatari Sdn Bhd has entered into a sale and purchase agreement with oil palm estate owner Dahlia Utama Sdn Bhd, a wholly-owned unit of Lee Rubber, for the proposed acquisition.

It added that the land is located in close proximity between the company's existing townships, namely the 250-acre Taman Scientex Senai and 326-acre Taman Pulai Mutiara.

"The proposed development will enable the company to tap on operational efficiencies and generate better margins through economies of scale to be achieved during project implementation," said Scientex.

"The land is proposed to be developed into a mixed property development. However, it is currently too preliminary to ascertain the exact total gross development value, development cost, the expected commencement and completion dates of the development and the expected profits to be derived from the development of the land," said Scientex.

There is no valuation carried out by Scientex on the land and as such, it is unable to disclose the vendor's net book value of the land as Scientex is not privy to this information.

Scientex said it plans to fund the proposed acquisition by internal funds and bank borrowings.

Barring any unforeseen circumstances and subject to conditions precedent and approval from the Estate Land Board, the proposed acquisition is expected to be completed in the second half of 2017.

In a separate statement today, Scientex managing director Lim Peng Jin said: "This acquisition is a new opportunity of growth for us, allowing Scientex to extend our expertise in providing affordable properties to cater to a larger population in Johor."

"More importantly, it also reiterates the group's financial strength and continued aspiration even in the tough economic climate," he added.

The proposed acquisition will bring Scientex's total landbank to 2,400 acres, which will keep it busy for the next 10 to 15 years. Currently, Scientex has ongoing projects worth RM1.6 billion, consisting mainly of five townships in Johor (Pasir Gudang, Kulai, Skudai, Senai and Pulai) and a mixed development in Melaka.

For the financial year ended July 31, 2016 (FY16), the property development segment contributed RM652 million in revenue, making up 30% of group revenue. The balance was derived from the manufacturing segment, comprising consumer and industrial packaging for the local and international markets.

"Scientex remains committed to upholding our twin engines of growth in manufacturing and property. We have just concluded a RM450 million capital expenditure exercise over the past three years to expand the annual capacity of our consumer packaging business from 30,000 tonnes to 156,000 tonnes by 2017," said Lim.

"We will always be on the lookout to enhance the prospects of both segments well into the future," he added.

Scientex shares closed up six sen or 0.9% at RM6.70, bringing it a market capitalisation of RM3.12 billion.

今年走势跌跌撞撞 东益明年將迎好年

财经 2016年12月28日

(吉隆坡28日讯)股价从年初最高水平6.53令吉,下挫了45.6%,至今天3.55令吉掛收的东益电子(GTRONIC,7022,主板科技股),今年走得格外顛簸,继年中业绩大跌拖累股价大跌后,11月份又传来单一大客户Heptagon可能取消订单的负面新闻,导致其股价节节败退。

以年初相比,该公司市值蒸发了7亿3355万令吉。

不过,艾芬黄氏资本分析员表示,新款式光感应器的测试顺利进行,东益电子明年將有望借助为OSRAM公司供应发光二极管(light-emittingdiodes,简称发光二极管)的订单持续成长。

因此,他维持该股「买进」评级,並给予4.88令吉目標价,或相等于36%的上升潜力。

艾芬黄氏资本分析员与东益电子管理层会面后,得悉该公司的新款式光感应器的测试阶段进展顺利,並已研发出第3代模型,预计模型將能在明年1月置入模擬手机实验。

分析员相信这次的光感应器模型,比起早前映像感应器的成功率来得更高,主要是因为光感应器是相对比较简单的元件,不需要与设备中的其他硬件及软件作结合。

另外,管理层也透露,供应非手机设备的光感应器也將在明年2月进行测试。

东益电子顾客大多在3至3个月半前,向公司下订单。以此类推,分析员相信,该公司能赶在顾客明年第3季推出新手机產品前,获得大量的光感应器订单。

此外,东益电子管理层看好发光二极管业务,能够更上一层楼。

「发光二极管业务在2016財政年首9个月对总营业额的贡献达26%,比起去年同期的18%,已略见增长。」

目前,该公司正为韩国终端客户,提供发光二极管產品的晶片切割以及芯片排序服务。同时,一些新客户也正在对东益电子进行品质评估,显示发光二极管业务未来的成长空间。

此外,东益电子另一位客户SORAA公司的发光二极管订单也按年上升50%。

惟,分析员称,东益电子的近距离感应器生產量,从平均每月800至900万单位,剧减至12月份的200至300万单位。

对此,虽然分析员不確定是否是受季节性因素影响,但是依然维持对该公司的財测,因为对该公司新感应器的前景感到乐观。

至于该公司面临的潜在风险则是正在进行的项目最后无法落实,导致流失客户。

分析员按2017財政年每股盈利预测和本益比18倍,给予该股4.88令吉目標价,並重申「买进」的投资评级。

东益电子股价今日以3.55令吉平盘掛收,成交量为15万零600股。

脱售DUKE所得回馈股东 怡克伟士料每股派息25仙

509点看 2016年12月28日

(吉隆坡28日讯)怡克伟士(EKOVEST,8877,主板建筑股)完成脱售白沙罗淡江大道(DUKE)40%股权给雇员公积金局(EPF)之后,股东预计能够获得每股25仙的股息。

根据怡克伟士今日发给股东的通告显示,公司计划把脱售所得介于18.9%至21.6%之间的资金,派发给股东。

这也相等于公司将派发介于2亿1386万令吉至2亿4441万令吉之间的股息。

怡克伟士指,派发股息是为了回馈给支持及投资在公司的股东。

早前,怡克伟士宣布,以11亿3000万令吉脱售Konsortium Lebuhraya Utara-Timur(吉隆坡)私人有限公司(Kesturi)40%股权给EPF。Kesturi持有DUKE的特许经营权。

在脱售所得中,有35.4%的资金,相等于4亿令吉,将用于偿还债务,而另外28.8%至31.5%的资金将用于企业和营运资本。

怡克伟士指,脱售股权符合公司策略,也就是从成熟的基建资产中套现,以及有助于分配更多资金至扩展基建部门,以及其他核心业务,如建筑和产业部。

闭市时,怡克伟士报2.34令吉,起2仙或0.86%,成交量80万6800股。

美得再也 新订单超越目标


140点看 2016年12月28日
分析:肯纳格投行

目标价:1.49令吉

最新进展:

美得再也(MITRA,9571,主板建筑股)获得西海岸大道私人有限公司1亿8343万5337令吉的合约,将为西海岸大道(WCE)第二区(Section 2)项目,进行土木工程。

该项工程将从南巴生谷大道(South Klang Valley Expressway)交叉路口,至莎阿南大道(Shah Alam Expressway)交叉路口。

该项合约为期30个月,预计将会对集团未来净利带来贡献。

行家建议:

纳入上述合约后,美得再也今年迄今的订单企于9亿2000万令吉,超越我们2016财年8亿令吉的目标,和符合我们2016财年新增订单10亿令吉的目标。

因此,我们维持2016、2017财年净利预测不变。

目前,美德再也共有16亿8000万令吉订单,相信在未来1年半至2年内可支撑盈利展望。

该公司也正竞标价值20亿令吉的合约,我们认为2017财年新增订单8亿令吉是可实现的。

由于房市放缓,将引起业内竞争,对赚幅构成轻微影响。

综合上述原因,我们给予“超越大市”评级,维持目标价1.49令吉不变;赚幅、新增订单,和产业销售低于预期,及工程进度拖慢,是公司的主要风险。


诺奖得主:特朗普效应 美房市涨势料加速

104点看 2016年12月28日



罗伯特希勒

(纽约28日讯)诺贝尔经济学奖得主罗伯特希勒说,特朗普11月意外赢得美国大选,对于美国房地产市场而言意义可能非同凡响。

罗伯特希勒在接受彭博电视采访时说:“我想我们正处于一个转折点,我们当前发布的是10月份特朗普赢得大选前的数据,而眼下,一切看上去都不一样了,一个特朗普繁荣期或许即将到来。”

周二发布的标普CoreLogic凯斯-席勒数据显示,美国20大城市房价10月份维持稳定上涨态势,同比增长5.1%,同期全美房价指数则创出了2014年年中以来的最大涨幅。

现任耶鲁大学经济学教授的罗伯特希勒(Robert Shiller)说,这一涨势可能会继续,也可能会加速。

“我并非在预测繁荣。处于这样的历史时刻,我发现预测是件很难的事,因为政府层面发生如此巨大的变化让我们简直不知道接下来会发生什么。”

“我希望看到特朗普实实在在的政策,看到他如何成功地使这些政策付诸实施。”

由于投资者认定特朗普选战期间的作出的降低税率、放松监管和大力升级基础设施的承诺会一一付诸实施,债券收益率和美元自11月8日大选以来出现了大幅攀升。

不过,有关这些政策的具体内容到目前还是雾里看花,即便出台也还需得到国会的认可。

虽说特朗普所在的共和党同时控制着参众两院,可能也还有些议员不愿投票支持那些增加美国赤字的举措。

罗伯特希勒说,今年迄今按揭利率的上涨“还算不上什么了不得的事,”实际上可能是为进一步的短期房价上涨埋下了种子。

新加坡企业债务违约 或为亚洲2017年债市不祥之兆

731点看 2016年12月29日

(新加坡29日讯)彭博社报道,新加坡大宗商品公司相关的违约可能是个警讯。

虽然原材料价格温和反弹,毕马威、Hogan Lovells Lee & Lee等企业重整专家预期亚太地区的大宗商品和船运公司恐怕会有更多企业爆发债务违约事件。欧华律师事务所(DLA Piper)表示,由于美国升息,加上美国总统当选人特朗普全面检视与中国的贸易关系,未来一年可能陷入动荡。

据彭博汇整的数据显示,亚太地区非银行借款人2017年将有764亿(约3285亿令吉)的美元债券到期,比今年多出24%。

自特朗普胜选以来,油价已上涨17%,但仍只有2014年峰值的一半左右。彭博大宗商品指数显示,整体原材料价格从2008年全球金融危机前的峰值下跌了64%。仰赖航运和石油服务公司的新加坡或首当其冲,因为该国企业规模较小,获得政府的支持也相对低。

Hogan Lovells Lee & Lee新加坡合夥人安迪菲利斯(Andy Ferris)说:“新加坡是东盟和亚洲地区的晴雨表,那些产业面对的一些基本面问题不会消失。大宗商品行业许多公司债台高筑,营收下滑。”

Swiber Holdings Ltd.和Swissco Holdings Ltd.等五家公司2016年违约的债券将近10亿新元(约30亿令吉)。毕马威指出,新加坡房价截至9月30日的一季跌幅创下七年多来最大,违约可能扩大到新加坡地产开发商。中国过热的房地产市场11月降温,政府持续祭出新的限制措施。

债务到期

据彭博汇整的数据,亚太地区房地产公司2017年到期的美元债券为87亿美元(约374亿令吉),而包括煤矿、石油服务公司的能源相关的企业明年需偿还120亿美元(约516亿令吉)。

彭博汇整的数据显示,商品交易商来宝集团2020年到期的美元债周一交易价84.2,MI能源控股公司2018年到期的美元债报83.3。

毕马威驻新加坡企业重整主管葛拉罕马丁(Graham Martin)说,预期包括马来西亚、泰国在内的亚洲石油服务和船运公司恐怕会有更多公司债务违约,而印尼煤矿公司受到低价影响,压力也增加。

马丁说:“我们认为2017年印尼是企业重整的主要市场之一。”

Goal Setting for Traders and Investors — You’re Doing It Wrong

http://newsletter.vantharp.com/public/viewmessage/html/10920/8i0p8h21zczrzsk5rfkbtfhtu2vxi
Feature Article
Goal Setting for Traders and Investors — You’re Doing It Wrong
by D. R. Barton, Jr.



“…Proportion of people who successfully complete a New Year’s Resolution: 8%.”

—University of Scranton study published in Journal of Clinical Psychology

With the New Year coming fast upon us, I’ve been motivated to write a series on a very important topic: goal setting.

The good news: when properly done, goal setting is a powerful tool.

The bad news: You’re doing it wrong.

Most likely.

Recently, the most comprehensive study I’ve seen on New Year’s resolutions was conducted by the University of Scranton and published in the prestigious Journal of Clinical Psychology.

New Year’s Day is a big deal. It’s the most celebrated holiday in the world. And in the U.S., more people make New Year’s resolutions (45%) than watch the Super Bowl (~33%).

But as we saw in our opening quote, we’re pretty lousy at keeping them. Only 8% of people who make resolutions successfully complete one.

So, as a society, our goal setting prowess can stand a bit of an upgrade. Over the next few weeks, I’m going to share what I consider some of the best work being done on goal setting.

We’ll bust some myths. (Ever heard about that famous Yale study on goal setting? Stay tuned for full disclosure in an upcoming article…)

We’ll spark some controversy.

And when we’re done, you might just have some of the best thinking on goal setting for traders and investors to use as a foundation for your planning in the New Year. A bold statement, but it’s a journey worth taking! Let’s get started…

We’ve all heard about the importance of goal setting. I helped write a very insightful chapter in Van’s book Financial-Freedom Through Electronic Day Trading more than 15 years ago. In working with thousands of traders, from those who are brand new to former floor traders, I’ve found that most do goal setting for their trading wrong! In fact, there’s a growing body of work that shows that goal setting done the wrong way, especially stretch goals, may be counter-productive (see, for example, Goals Gone Wild, by Ordonez, et al, a 2009 report from the Harvard Business School).

Goal setting is not a cure-all. And in trading it can be downright harmful if done poorly. In this section, I’m going to give you some guidelines for how to set goals at every step of your trading journey – and since I developed this particular approach to goal setting, chances are that this is the first time you will have seen this useful and easy method. And the good news is that this approach takes much of the anxiety out of early goal setting and allows you to learn the art and science of trading in a low-stress way!

So let’s look at the two classic ways to set goals. There is an ongoing controversy over which way is best. Below, we’ll settle this age old controversy and provide some guidelines for how traders (whether you’re new or a seasoned veteran) can learn fastest by combining the two methods.

Every great debate must have two strong, compelling and competing view-points. Just think of the great debates of our generation:

Nature vs. Nurture: Which plays the most important role in a person’s success or failure — is it their genes or how they were raised?
Privatized Social Security vs. Government Invested Social Security: Should we allow citizens to direct the investment decisions for their tax-sponsored retirement savings or not?
Tastes Great vs. Less Filling: Okay, this debate has two problems. First, Miller has largely abandoned this hugely popular ad campaign. And secondly, every light beer out there (including Miller’s anemic entry) tastes lousy.

But this brings us to this week’s topic, and a serious one it is. How should traders and investors go about goal setting?

And indeed there is a controversy here. Instead of nature versus nurture, we have results-oriented goals versus process-oriented goals. And for traders and investors the differences are important.

If You Don’t Have a Dream, How You Gonna Have a Dream Come True?

Let’s start our discussion on goal setting for traders and investors with three simple words:

Make written goals!

If you don’t have trading and investing goals, chances are high that you’re setting yourself up for failure. And if your trading and investing goals aren’t written down (and reviewed regularly), then you have a much lower probability of achieving them.

I may do a whole section on goal setting later, because it is a critical activity for all traders and investors. But for this week — on to the controversy!

The goal setting debate comes down to two points of view:

The “results-oriented” camp. On this side of the tracks, all goals must be attached to tangible and measurable results. These goals are the favorites of management-types. They are also strongly emphasized among athletes who compete at a high level.
The “process-oriented” camp. Process-oriented goals emphasize the “how”. What are the things you will do to get to your end results? The adherents of this camp believe that one should focus more (or even exclusively) on the activities required to achieve a certain result rather than on the result itself.

In the trading and investing world, the debate about process vs. results in goal setting rages on. Should you set goals for how much you should make daily, weekly or monthly? Or should you concentrate on getting the process right and ignore the outcome?

Let’s shed some light on the “right way” for traders and investors to set goals by studying some common activities that almost everyone has worked to master.

Learning to walk. How do infants learn to walk? Constant trial and error, encouragement from loved ones, and patience. Here’s a question for you: How long a time period will you give your child to learn to walk? It’s a ludicrous question. The answer is, “As long as it takes!”

My son Josh was a “late” walker. He did not take his first unaided step until he was 15 months old. We were actually beginning to wonder if we had overlooked a developmental issue with him. But in a move that was quite unusual, when he finally took his first step, he didn’t stop! Most infants take a step or two or three and then flop down. Josh just kept going. He ended up taking 13 steps the very first time that he took off! I guess he was just ready.

When we are helping a child learn to walk, we concentrate on the process. Placing one foot in front of the other while maintaining balance. Taking steps that are not too big. Stepping on the ball and heel instead of the outside of the foot.

Contrast this to when the person is ready to compete in athletics. We help them get better by setting clear goals. If you want to train a sprinter, you continue to work on the process but you set clear performance goals to act as milestones for training.

Or how about learning to drive a car? (Those of you who have taught a son or a daughter how to drive, have many experiences to share I’m sure!) But when doing so, you have to concentrate on the process. You want to new driver to go a short distance without having or causing accidents. And you want them to be able to do that consistently. You don’t care if it takes ten minutes to get to the store instead of five. You just want them to operate the vehicle safely — as they improve their skills they can learn how to time entries into busy intersections and do other things that will make them faster and more efficient drivers.

A competitive race driver will have a different regimen. Instead of concentrating on just getting around the track, the driver works on issues that will allow him or her to shave seconds off of their times. Faster results and better times will be the goal for the driver on every circuit taken.

Trading and investing are learning experiences as well. And while there is no one “right way” to set goals for everyone, there are some practical guidelines that can help traders and investors at all steps along their journey to mastery. Process-oriented goal and results-oriented goals both have their useful place for traders and investors.

However, if we get the wrong mix of process vs. results goals at the wrong time in our trading career, the process can be counterproductive or down right destructive.

In my next article we’ll dig in and find out what the proper balance between these two goal-setting camps is right for you.

I hope that all the love and joy of this Christmas and Hanukkah season are with you and your families! And may you have a happy and prosperous New Year!

Your thoughts and comments are always welcome — please send them to drbarton “at” vantharp.com

Great Trading,
D. R.

About the Author: A passion for the systematic approach to the markets and lifelong love of teaching and learning have propelled D.R. Barton, Jr. to the top of the investment and trading arena. He is a regularly featured analyst on Fox Business' Varney & Co. TV show (catch him most Thursdays between 12:30 and 12:45), on Bloomberg Radio Taking Stock and MarketWatch's Money Life Show. He is also a frequent guest analyst on CNBC's Closing Bell, WTOP News Radio in Washington, D.C., and has been a guest on China Central Television - America and Canada's Business News Network. His articles have appeared on SmartMoney.com MarketWatch.com and Financial Advisor magazine. You may contact D.R. at "drbarton" at "vantharp.com".






周顯:細價股散戶 輸完又賭過

http://www.mpfinance.com/fin/columnist2.php?col=1463481127012&node=1482950398970&issue=20161229
文章日期:2016年12月29日

【明報專訊】細價股市場究竟是怎樣的一回事呢?

其實,在這個市場,一直只有幾億元的資金,在炒來炒去,但由於這些資金,快進快出,有時一日炒幾轉,因此往往造成聲勢浩大的現象;但其實,來來去去,都是那些人,主要是活躍的經紀,以及一些「病態賭徒」。

在牛市的時候,有大量的散戶參與,但也不過是幾十億元的數值而已,不過,炒細價股的錢是有着很高的再生能力,因此,他們輸完又來賭過,最多是靜幾個月,細價股市場又回復生氣了。

在近一個月,細價股市場萎縮,有一位活躍市場的莊家對我說:「由於一買即輸,連最病態的賭徒,也要收手不賭了。」

見大升大跌股即入場

但其實,這些病態賭徒一直都在市場中,伺機而動,從來沒有放棄過股市,像先前喪炒的膳源控股(1632),只要有大成交、大升幅、大跌幅、或大波幅,馬上就會入場,出出入入喪炒一番,每次大約有1億至2億元的資金參與炒作,這是暫時僅存的最後部隊,我的其中一位好朋友,美女股神張小姐,就是其中的一位,基本上,這些大升大跌的股票,她是無役不參與的。

至於我,在這個大悶市,唯有無事找事來做,其中的一個節目,就是開班講課,因此,我的政治經濟學課程,也要開第二班了,有興趣者請聯絡我的課程經理人phemey@gmail.com 。

有人問我,為什麼你的娛樂節目,總是和商業有關的呢?我說:「我賺錢,也花錢,投資贏錢,也會輸錢,這叫做暢旺經濟,甚至是寫作,也會賺稿費,出書,也收版稅,但我也大量買書,上網的時間比看書少得多,很少免費娛樂,如果世界上多點我這種人,肯定不會經濟不景!」

[周顯 投資二三事]

[转贴] 【美德15连霸】- MITRA(9571)获得342.82 mil建筑合约,建筑合约站稳1,693 mil! - Harryt30

Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Wed, 28 Dec 2016, 02:43 PM

Wednesday, December 28, 2016

MITRA(9571)在11月份交出了YOY净利进步4%的成绩单,这有点不符合市场的期望。因此业绩出炉后,股价在12月7号一度下挫到RM1.15。11月尾手上的订单下滑到RM1,350 mil, 这让部分投资者感到忧虑。不过MITRA分别在12月21日以及27日获得两份建筑合约,总值342.82 mil,因此现在它手握RM1,693 mil的合约。股价最近也从底部反弹了10%,回弹到RM1.27左右的价格。

此外,媒体传出MITRA获得400 mil建筑合约的消息,但是公司却没有在Bursa做出任何官方公布,因此有待考证。虽然最新季度的盈利进步幅度下滑,不过MITRA却保持了15个季度盈利YOY连续进步的壮举。



来到了2016年,MITRA的Net Profit Margin上升到10.8%,去年Margin下滑是因为公司的Esos Expense导致。公司最新4个季度的盈利已经达到新的里程碑100 mil,相信Q4会继续交出不赖的成绩。



Q4是MITRA传统的旺季,因此全年的营业额有望继续走高。

此前公司订单从1,490 mil下滑到1,350 mil, 不过在新的合约出炉后,现在走高到1,693 mil.
建筑业务依旧是贡献最多的营业额以及盈利,产业部门也从上个季度亏损1.344 mil改善到1.005 mil盈利。不过产业持续走低,产业部门未来充满挑战。

幸运的是南非投资保持着正面的盈利贡献,因此抵消了产业的低迷。

但是笔者比较担心的是公司的Borrowing一直在增长,从上个季度的206 mil增加到244.4 mil。Gearing更是从0.37增长到0.45,因此这方面必须多留心。

扣除手上的现金,MITRA的Net Debt Position是199.5 mil,这也是近年来新高的水平。虽然管理层在股东大会解释资金紧凑是因为要买新的机器以及新合约要给抵押金,这个问题还是不能被忽略。

公司之前卖掉了Healthcare的业务,这笔5.1 mil的销售很大可能会在Q4显现。这间接刺激营业额以及盈利走高,也改善现金流。此外,柔佛政府也向MITRA征地,地皮的area = 24,159.49 sqm, offer的赔偿金是31.454 mil。这笔现金将会是MITRA明年的及时雨,可以增加一次性盈利以及公司现金流。

基本上MITRA在2016年的盈利增长将会介于15% - 20%,不过今年股价的涨幅+股息才10%左右。这样的估值有点偏低,因为MITRA过往的平均PE 大约 = 10, 现在PE = 8.48是低于过往的平均水平的。只要MITRA在未来可以获得更多的建筑合约以及减低债务,相信这讲可以吸引到更多投资者的目光。

免责声明:
以上纯属分享,买卖请自负。

Harryt30
14.05p.m
2016.12.28

http://harryteo.blogspot.my/2016/12/138815-mitra957134282-mil1693-mil.html

PRLEXUS(8966)宝翔~ 服装销量不给力,首季营业额和盈利齐下滑。~WSWT~

Author: WeShare WeTrade | Publish date: Wed, 28 Dec 2016, 07:09 PM




宝翔2017财政年首季营业额和盈利齐下滑,跌幅分别是16%和17%。这也解释了公司股价在过去一个月持续下滑的原因,目前股价RM1.38(市值:RM235M),相比一个月前的高位RM1.65(市值:RM280M)下跌超过了15%。

数据分析:






翻开营业表来看,下跌主因归咎于服饰/服装业务的销量走低。这可能也是导致存货量比上季增加的原因。不过令笔者有些意外的是,虽然公司业绩下滑,但净利率(Profit Margin)却保持稳定。另外也可以发现公司的负债在减少中,流动负债比上季降低了19m。这一季虽然盈利表现不算理想,但NTA还是比上一季增加了,从212m至目前的221m。57m的现金也让财务表处于非常健康的水平,毕竟流动负债只有63m左右,单单现金就能偿还90%短期负债。

Prelexus主要是生产及设计运动服饰,其中家喻户晓的NIKE就是其主要客户。现代人越来越注重健康,运动也算是生活中的一部分。生活水平的提高,已经很少人会穿一件白T-Shirt去运动了,通常会选择换上合适的运动服。知名品牌的运动服除了“适合运动”外也是一种“潮流”,由此可见运动服装在来年还是有稳定的需求量的。

当然,Prelexus只是NIKE的其中一个供应商,并不能代表NIKE。同时也不能享有NIKE的品牌价值与其他竞争优势。

根据Prlexus 季报指出,若没有意外,该公司的成绩单在下季将保持稳定,让我们敬请期待!

WeShare WeTrade

杨恩 & 逆水行舟

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Wednesday, December 28, 2016

Scientex buys Johor land from Lee Rubber for RM123.64m

By Anette Appaduray / theedgemarkets.com | December 28, 2016 : 6:41 PM MYT

KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 28): Scientex Bhd is buying two parcels of land in Kulai, Johor, measuring 121.1967 acres from Singapore-based Lee Rubber Co (Pte) Ltd for RM123.64 million cash.

The proposed acquisition would be a strategic investment opportunity to increase and boost the company's existing landbank at a strategic location, said Scientex.

In a filing with Bursa Malaysia today, Scientex said its wholly-owned subsidiary Scientex Quatari Sdn Bhd has entered into a sale and purchase agreement with oil palm estate owner Dahlia Utama Sdn Bhd, a wholly-owned unit of Lee Rubber, for the proposed acquisition.

It added that the land is located in close proximity between the company's existing townships, namely the 250-acre Taman Scientex Senai and 326-acre Taman Pulai Mutiara.

"The proposed development will enable the company to tap on operational efficiencies and generate better margins through economies of scale to be achieved during project implementation," said Scientex.

"The land is proposed to be developed into a mixed property development. However, it is currently too preliminary to ascertain the exact total gross development value, development cost, the expected commencement and completion dates of the development and the expected profits to be derived from the development of the land," said Scientex.

There is no valuation carried out by Scientex on the land and as such, it is unable to disclose the vendor's net book value of the land as Scientex is not privy to this information.

Scientex said it plans to fund the proposed acquisition by internal funds and bank borrowings.

Barring any unforeseen circumstances and subject to conditions precedent and approval from the Estate Land Board, the proposed acquisition is expected to be completed in the second half of 2017.

In a separate statement today, Scientex managing director Lim Peng Jin said: "This acquisition is a new opportunity of growth for us, allowing Scientex to extend our expertise in providing affordable properties to cater to a larger population in Johor."

"More importantly, it also reiterates the group's financial strength and continued aspiration even in the tough economic climate," he added.

The proposed acquisition will bring Scientex's total landbank to 2,400 acres, which will keep it busy for the next 10 to 15 years. Currently, Scientex has ongoing projects worth RM1.6 billion, consisting mainly of five townships in Johor (Pasir Gudang, Kulai, Skudai, Senai and Pulai) and a mixed development in Melaka.

For the financial year ended July 31, 2016 (FY16), the property development segment contributed RM652 million in revenue, making up 30% of group revenue. The balance was derived from the manufacturing segment, comprising consumer and industrial packaging for the local and international markets.

"Scientex remains committed to upholding our twin engines of growth in manufacturing and property. We have just concluded a RM450 million capital expenditure exercise over the past three years to expand the annual capacity of our consumer packaging business from 30,000 tonnes to 156,000 tonnes by 2017," said Lim.

"We will always be on the lookout to enhance the prospects of both segments well into the future," he added.

Scientex shares closed up six sen or 0.9% at RM6.70, bringing it a market capitalisation of RM3.12 billion.

消费领域明年复苏 柏昇与喜力大马受看好

304点看 2016年12月28日


(吉隆坡27日讯)私人消费及消费者情绪有所改善,分析员预计,明年消费者领域会逐渐复苏,并看好柏昇(BISON,5275,主板贸服股)和喜力大马(HEIM,3255,主板消费产品股)的前景。大马投行分析员预计,明年私人消费料增长6.2%,较今年的5.9%预测高。

同时,反暴利法令也在12月杪到期,届时,公司可以更有效的转嫁成本,因此,分析员维持消费者领域的“中和”评级。


不过,倘若反暴利法令提早解禁、私人消费增幅比预期高,分析员认为该领域会“超越大市”。



对宝利有利

分析员指,若消费者开销较预期高,对非必需品业者有益,尤其是宝利机构(BONIA,9288,主板消费产品股)和啤酒公司。

尽管如此,倘若政府再次延长反暴利法令的期限、业者营运开销上扬可能抵消营业额增幅,以及原产品价格上扬,分析员可能将该领域的评级,调降至“低于大市”。

分析员担忧,营运开销如水电费、工资和食品成本上涨,会导致溢出效应,拖累整体价值链。


另外,咖啡、牛奶和糖价走高,与2015年平均价格相比,增幅介于8%至46%。

分析员指,原产品供应合约即将到期的业者,被迫以高价采购,进而打压赚幅。全球供应量减少,势必让咖啡和牛奶价格水涨船高。

目前,分析员在消费者领域的首选为柏昇和喜力大马。

柏昇受分析员看好的原因包括,积极增加店面数量,自家生产的产品组合优良,可望改善赚幅,以及管理层的执行能力好。至于喜力大马,分析员认为啤酒厂是消费者必需品,因此,可抗跌及承受逆风。

“喜力大马的需求强韧、经改善的产品组合可望增加赚幅,此外,成本控制也严谨。2017至2019财年的周息率预测,分别为5%和5.9%,十分吸引。”

同时,由于本地消费走高,带好啤酒领域2017财年销售量预测,分析员对该领域持有“超越大市”看法。

不过,分析员警惕,喜力大马、皇帽(CARLSBG,2836,主板消费产品股)与大马关税局的税务纠纷,占了2家啤酒公司2017财年盈利预测的25%,依然是最大的风险。

Mitrajaya wins RM183mil West Coast Expressway job

Wednesday, 28 December 2016

PETALING JAYA: Mitrajaya Holdings Bhd has secured a contract for the construction and completion of civil works for Section 2 of the West Coast Expressway (WCE) for a sum of RM183.44mil.

In a filing with Bursa Malaysia, the company said that the portion in question would be from the South Klang Valley Expressway interchange to the Shah Alam Expressway interchange.

The contract, which was awarded by West Coast Expressway Sdn Bhd, has a duration of 30 months commencing from the date of site possession which would be advised in due course.

Mitrajaya said in the statement that it expected the contract to contribute positively to future earnings.

Tuesday, December 27, 2016

#3 Mean Reversion trading is HOT! (Episode 62)

062: Mean Reversion strategies with PJ Sutherland

After releasing this episode I received quite a few comments from people saying this has been the best episode ever, so if you haven’t heard it, are interested in mean reversion trading or even trade mean reversion strategies, this is one you have to listen to, perhaps even a few times.
In this episode PJ not only gives us loads of trading ideas we can test, but he shares:

  • How to adapt mean reversion strategies to the market environment,
  • Powerful techniques to managing risk,
  • How to build a portfolio of strategies using parameter ranges across the mean reversion curve.

#5 Multiple exits can reduce drawdowns (Episode 59)

059: Reducing Drawdowns with Scott Phillips

As traders, I’m sure we all want a steadily rising equity curve that just keeps going up and up and up, but unfortunately it doesn’t usually end up that way and we have to cope with drawdown, which can be one of the biggest challenges traders have to face.
So what techniques can we use to potentially help reduce drawdowns? That’s exactly what we discuss in this episode, including:
  • Rapid prototyping to determine if a trading idea is worth more investigation
  • Enhancing trading performance by understanding market types
  • How to improve your trading results through better trade management and utilizing multiple exits

If you LOVE drawdowns, don’t listen to this. If you HATE drawdowns, this could be just for you!

Why MSC?(RM3.94) The world 2nd largest tin metal supplier which benefited from increase of tin price

Why MSC?(RM3.94) The world 2nd largest tin metal supplier which benefited from increase of tin price
Author: itjustabouttheprofit | Publish date: Sun, 25 Dec 2016, 01:47 PM



Company background

The MSC Group is currently one of the world's leading integrated producers of tin metal and tin based products and a global leader in custom tin smelting since 1887. In 2015, the Group maintaining its position as the second largest supplier of tin metal in the world. MSC is listed both on the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia since 15 December 1994 and the Main Board of Singapore Exchange (SGX-ST) since 27 January 2011, and is a 54.8% subsidiary of The Straits Trading Company Limited of Singapore.

In the mid 90's the Group started a tin marketing and trading arm under the smelting division. The downstream unit provides the Group with hedging, pricing and marketing linkages to the Kuala Lumpur Tin Market / London Metal Exchange markets as well as the end-user markets worldwide. MSC Straits refined tin brand which is registered at LME and KLTM is accepted worldwide and has purity ranging from the standard Grade A (99.85% Sn) to the premium grade electrolytic tin (99.99% Sn).




In November 2004, MSC expanded upstream in mining through the acquisition of Rahman Hydraulic Tin Sdn. Bhd. (RHT), Malaysia's long established and largest operating open-pit hard rock tin mine. Since the takeover, extensive exploration works and improvements of milling / concentrator circuit and recovery operations have been undertaken and today RHT is a sustainable and significant tin producer in Malaysia.

The Group's 40% equity interest in Redring Solder (M) Sdn. Bhd. provides vertical integration to the its tin smelting business and an entry into a profitable downstream solder manufacturing business with significant growth potential. Redring Solder's principal activities are the manufacture and sale of solder products for jointing and semi-conductor applications in the electrical and electronics industries.



Total EPS for the past 5 years:

2011 - 62.6sen

(RM2mil) - Impairment provision for investment in Guilin Hinwei Tin Co. Ltd.

(RM6.4mil) - Impairment provision for investment in Asian Mineral Resources Limited

(RM0.3mil) - Loss on disposal group classified as held for sale

(RM16.6mil) - Impairment provision for investment in TMR Ltd

(RM18.2mil) - Provision for mine rehabilitation

RM8mil - Investment income

(Total extraordinary item = (RM35.5mil) or (EPS35.5sen))

EPS without extraordinary item = 98.1sen

2012 - (61sen)

(RM2.1mil) - Provision for investment in Guilin Hinwei Tin Co. Ltd.

(RM8.6mil) - Impairment provision for investment in TMR Ltd

(RM6.6mil) - Impairment provision for investment in KM Reosurces, Inc

(RM7mil) - Deferred exploration and evaluation expenditure written-off

(RM1mil) - Loss arising from cessation of significant influence in a former associate

RM4mil - Investment income

(RM3.2mil) - Provision for mine rehabilitation

(Total extraordinary item = (RM24.5mil) or (EPS24.5sen))

EPS without extraordinary item = (36.5sen)





2013 - (7.40sen)

RM6mil - Reversal of impairment for investment in KM Resources, Inc

(RM9.1mil) - Impairment for investment in TMR Ltd

(RM1.9mil) - Impairment for investment in Asian Mineral Resources Limited

(RM1.9mil) - Impairment for investment in Alphamin Resources Corp

RM2.8mil - Investment income

(Total extraordinary item = (RM4.1mil) or (EPS4.1sen))

EPS without extraordinary item = (3.3sen)

2014 - (9.9sen)

(RM4.2mil) - Impairment of investment in KM Resources, Inc

(RM25.3mil) - Loss on disposal of disposal group classified as held for sale

(RM3.5mil) - Loss on disposal of a subsidiary

(RM9.6mil) - Provision for financial guarantee

RM2.7mil - Investment income

(Total extraordinary item = (RM39.9mil) or (EPS39.9sen))



EPS without extraordinary item = 30.0sen

2015 - 13sen

(RM4.2mil) - Impairment of investment in KM Resources, Inc

RM2.5mil - Investment income

(Total extraordinary item = (RM1.7mil) or (EPS1.7sen))

EPS without extraordinary item = 14.7sen

2016 - 31.9sen (3 quarters)

RM2.1mil - Investment income

(RM30.5mil) - Share of losses from KM Resources

(Total extraordinary item = (RM28.4mil) or (EPS28.4sen))

EPS without extraordinary item = 60.3sen

Current PE ratio using EPS without

extraordinary item: 6.47 (RM3.90)

Net assets: RM2.7098



I am here to ANSWER a simple question.

Why MSC?

1) Increased in tin metal price per tonne by

50% since January 2016


2) Tin ore reserves of Rahman Hydraulic

Tin Sdn Bhd (subsidiary of MSC) can last

for at least 15years


3) Improved in fundemental of the company

by reducing debt from net borrowing

position of RM572mil (31/12/2010) to

RM162mil (30/9/2016)


4) The company's stays profitable since

2014

5) Others




1) Increased in tin price per tonne by 50%

since January 2016



Sources: London Metal Exchange

Refer to the graph above, the tin price have been significant increased by 50% since Jan 2016 from USD14,000 per tonnes to near to USD21,500 as per today. As 2nd largest suppliers in the world, the spike in tin price will bring significant improvement in MSC's profit in the coming quarters.


2) Tin ore reserves of Rahman Hydraulic

Tin Sdn Bhd (subsidiary of MSC) can last

for at least 15 years

Sources: Annual report 2015





Sources: Annual report 2015


As per above, the production of tin-in-concentrates for 2015 is 2,196 tonnes while the total contained tin for Rahman Hydraulic Tin Sdn Bhd is 33,756 tonnes.

Total useful life - 33,756 tonnes / 2,196 tonnes = 15.31 years

In 2015, the mine maintained its position as the largest producer of tin-in-concentrade in Malaysia, producing about 57% of the country's tin production.


3) Improved in fundemental of the company

by reducing debt from net borrowing

position of RM572mil (31/12/2010) to

RM162mil (30/9/2016)




As per graph above, it shown that the net borrowing have been significant decreased since 31/12/2010. It have been decreased from RM572million to RM162million. The company did not declared dividend since 2012. Hopeful with the reduction in net borrowing position, the company will start paying dividend again this year.



4) The company's stays profitable since

2014









During 2012, one of the 75% owned subsidiaries, PT Koba have been shut down due to the company unable to renew the mining permit as the Indonesian government's new policy and national aspiration for greater local participation in the ownership and management of mining companies.


Hence, the company's have suffered huge losses during 2012 and 2013.


But since 2014, the company's earning per share without extraordinary items have remained positive until today.


During 2015, the tin price have been significant decreased USD19,500 to USD14,500. Hence the profit of the company also decreased.


Refer to point number 1, as the tin price have been recovered during 2016, for the first three quarter for the financial year 2016, the company's earning per share without extraordinary items have already surpassed 2014 and 2015 results. As the tin price continues rise, I expected the profit for the last quarter will be even better.





5) Others
https://www.fastmarkets.com/base-metals-news/base-metals/tin-today-stronger-demand-offsets-supply-response-91199/
TIN TODAY – Stronger demand offsets supply response

Macro drivers

LME tin is a little stronger so far this week but seems to lack upside conviction despite a firm increase in global risk sentiment (e.g. US equities are surging to record highs), a fall in the dollar and solid Chinese data yesterday and today. We think prices are capped on the upside because of a supply response to current attractive price levels.

Looking at the forward spreads, forward selling (hedging activity) seems to be picking up. The 3m-15m spread has averaged a backwardation of $544 per tonne so far in December compared with $260 in November. This explains why prices have been capped over the past month.

But supply in Indonesia has remained tight so far this year. According to ITRI, Indoenesian exports dropped 18% year-on-year in January-November 2016. But we would not be surprised by a pick-up in Indonesian shipments in the coming months because smelters may take advantage of higher prices.

On the brighter side, demand seems to have improved in recent months. According to the WSTS, global semiconductor sales rose 3.4% month-on-month in October after rising 4.2% in September and 3.5% month-on-month in August. The WSTS also revised its forecasts upwardly. It now expects global sales of semiconductors to be broadly flat (-0.1%) in 2016 and to rise 3.3% in 2017 and 2.3% in 2018.

Flows in visible inventories (LME & SHFE):

Visible inventories have picked up on net since November, which could explain tin’s lack of upside conviction.

LME stocks – at 3,375 tonnes as of December 13 – are up 190 tonnes or 6% since the start of December after rising 290 tonnes or 10% in November and falling 615 tonnes or 18% in October. In the year to date, stocks are down 2,765 tonnes or 45%.

SHFE stocks – at 1,702 tonnes as of December 9 – are down 205 tonnes or 11% since the start of December after being flat in November and falling 817 tonnes or 30% in October. In the year to date, though, stocks remain up 929 tonnes or 120%.

Supply/demand balance:

The deficit in the global refined market was 20,500 tonnes in January-August. This confirms that the fundamental outlook in the global refined tin market continues to improve.

Conclusion

We maintain our constructive stance on tin over the very short term (around one month) because we think that any short-term price weakness will attract buying on the dips. Still, we would be forced to turn neutral in case of a firm break below the 50 DMA, which has proved to be reliable support in recent months.

We remain positive over the short and medium terms – although a supply-side response is likely, stronger global macro dynamics, especially in China, may translate into firmer demand for tin. As well, visible inventories remain so low that any renewed tightening in the supply/demand balance would provoke a strong price reaction, we think.

We think the balance of risks to our forecast made at the end of the third quarter for a year-end target at $21,000 per tonne is tilted to the upside in this environment.





Trade at your own risk!!! Do research before any investment decision!!!

Merry Christmas and happy new year :-)

Top 10 dividend stocks in Malaysia (The Edge Malaysia Weekly)

Top 10 dividend stocks in Malaysia (The Edge Malaysia Weekly)
Author: TheRock2016 | Publish date: Sun, 25 Dec 2016, 11:55 PM



Source: The Edge

冷眼心水家具股 – 浅谈HOMERIZ 的近况和POHUAT季度报告

Author: WeShare WeTrade | Publish date: Mon, 26 Dec 2016, 05:19 PM 

近期笔者都特别关注家具股的环境走向,因为有几个重要外围因素都会左右大马家具股的表现。
1. 美金/马币汇率
2. 国内外劳荒
3. 美国政治和经济

上周笔者才谈到外劳荒对各个家具股的打击,尤以HOMERIZ影响最为严重。不过,最近HOMERIZ指10月起已经获准引进60名外劳,加上美元升值和原料价格下跌,有助推高该公司的核心盈利,所以近期的股价有小小的起色。下个月将出炉季报表现,且看营业额会否回升。

上周四POHUAT出炉季报,表现相当亮眼,营业额上升8.5%,净利更是上升20.2%,并且将会派息2仙。随着良好的季报表现,上周五股价更是上升7仙至RM1.75,为过去六个月新高。净利率的提升归功于赚幅提升和美元升值。

过去2年POHUAT业绩以双位数成长,事实上本季度的营业额以单位数成长表示营业额成长速度有所缓慢了!全年的核心净利达到4480万令吉,只达到分析员全年预测的93.4%。


相较于其他家私股,POHUAT有以下几个特点

-业务表现更为周期性,第二和第三季度都是谈季。所以这两个季度除了营业额偏低外,净利率也因为工厂使用率低而显得较低。第四季度的营业额虽然微微高过第一季度,可是已经是连续7年都是全年表现最佳的季度。

-更依赖于北美市场
-国内外劳荒的问题对POHUAT冲击相对的小,因为大马工厂只贡献3成营业额,第四季度的营业额贡献更是跌至27%而已。大马工厂营业额下跌10%,可季报并没提到有受到国内外劳荒影响。而越南工厂保持良好的成长趋势,盈利率也提升进而带动整体盈利。


总结:虽然因国内外劳荒拖累整体家具业营业额,可是赚幅提升和美元升值有助于提升净利率。以POHUAT为例,本季度只记载8月至10月份的表现,而当时的美元汇率徘徊在RM 4.00至RM 4.20之间。11月美国大选后美元汇率都在RM 4.4左右,或许家具股接下来的一两个季报盈利都可以取得提升。

另外,家具股的股息也相当不赖,有4%至6%左右的dividend yield。整体而言,现阶段家具股的前景还是okay的。

WeShareWeTrade
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推行各种扩充计划.宝翔前景看俏


Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Mon, 26 Dec 2016, 10:58 PM

2016-12-26 19:04
读者小黄问:请问宝翔(PROLEXUS,8966,主板消费品组)前景如何?

读者小黄问:

(1)请问宝翔(PROLEXUS,8966,主板消费品组)前景如何?

(2)能从目前马币疲弱中受惠吗?

(3)股价有被低估吗?

答:(1)宝翔主要业务为制造及销售纺织与服装产品,同时也涉足广告服务与投资控股。谈到该公司的未来业务前景,肯纳格研究最近的一项剖析报告可以作为参考。

该公司在2016年6月完成2配1比例的附加股计划,全面展开业务扩充计划,包括到越南兴建一座新服装工厂,以及在大马居銮设施增设一间针织布厂。该行估计它将附加股计划所筹得的资金,其中70%充当融资扩充活动,其余则以现金及借贷融资。

预料越南新工厂第一阶段工程将在2018年财政年完成,每年的产能达到450万件的服装。

该公司进军越南市场的其中一个原因,主要是获取跨太平洋伙伴关系协议的好处,特别是纺织-相关产品获得免除关税,而该公司约90%的销售是出口给主要客户,包括Nike及Under-Armour。

虽然销售量料可保时平稳,不过,随着跨太平洋伙伴关系协议未能落实,预料其长期需求成长将放缓,特别是美国公司可能受压增加使用更多的美国制造产品。

料2019盈利显著增长

不过,若是该公司国内外旗下的各项扩充计划推行妥当,相信该公司的未来业务成长或在2019年财政年的盈利将会显著增长。

该行指出,其居銮的针织布厂料在2018年财政年中开始投入营运,第一阶段的产能达到每年约4000万件,足以应对本地使用量。同时,该公司未来数月内完成扩充中国设施后,料使其员工容量倍增600人。

当时,肯纳格研究看好其系列业务扩充计划,预料将使其2017及2018财政年的营业额增长9%至22%之间,分别至4亿3800万令吉及5亿3700万令吉。新服装工厂也有助改善长期的赚幅。预料其2019年财政年的净赚幅可增加1%至2%之间,主要是针织布厂合理化成本架构。

宝翔的广告服务业务方面,目前以“Power Screen”品牌在全国各地经营14个户外广告荧幕。最新户外广告荧幕地点,将放眼在巴生河流域以外的地区,如亚庇及古晋。

广告服务业务的销售额料保持稳定,过去两年的赚幅约达35%。

受惠马币疲弱

(2)宝翔在大马及中国有业务,最近更到越南设厂。该公司的服装主要出口到海外市场,包括北美、欧洲、澳洲及亚洲各国等。由于产品主要出口到海外市场赚取美元为主的外币,所以,马币兑美元汇率走软,料有助公司业务及盈利表现。

(3)宝翔的股价是否低估,当时肯纳格研究认为,将该公司的评级,从当时的“短线买进”下调至“没有评级”。

合理目标价从2令吉10仙下调至1令吉68仙。这主要是随着特朗普出乎意料当选为美国新总统后,跨太平洋伙伴关系协议(TPP)很可能告吹,这将负面冲击公司在越南扩充计划、及潜在未来长期美国市场需求成长。

文章来源:星洲日报.投资致富.投资问诊.文:李文龙.2016.12.26

http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1599628/%E6%8E%A8%E8%A1%8C%E5%90%84%E7%A7%8D%E6%89%A9%E5%85%85%E8%AE%A1%E5%88%92%EF%BC%8E%E5%AE%9D%E7%BF%94%E5%89%8D%E6%99%AF%E7%9C%8B%E4%BF%8F

胜利者国际合理价多少?


Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Mon, 26 Dec 2016, 10:58 PM

2016-12-26 19:07
BOB LEE问:胜利者国际最新业绩好像退步了,请问前景可以吗?合理价多少?

BOB LEE问:

胜利者国际(SIGN,7246,主板消费品组)最新业绩好像退步了,请问前景可以吗?合理价多少?

答:胜利者国际首季营业额与净利皆下滑,惟该公司仍手握4970万令吉净现金,加上未入账销售逾2亿令吉,分析员一致维持该公司原有评级不变。

胜利者国际首季营业额与净利各挫4.7%及30.8%,报4280万令吉及360万令吉。

联昌研究表示,该公司传统上首季业绩属于是较为不理想,不过,手握2亿1500万未入账销售,高于2016财政年全年业绩,可支撑未来的业绩。

联昌补充,上述合约尚不包括柔佛碧桂园产业项目及英国巴特西发电厂产业项目,合约规模各报1亿令吉。联昌认为,碧桂园项目将会交由中国公司进行。

预期2017净利成长18%

达证券表示,该公司竞标合约总值为4亿令吉,预期该公司2017财政年的净利可成长18%至2870万令吉。

该公司核心业务为组合式厨房装置及厨房柜设计的分销及零售。

联昌表示,基于产业冷风飕飕,许多发展商产业销售项目仅在60%至70%,进而影响了胜利者国际业务。

联昌说该公司在2014年时,以5080万收购森美兰39英亩地库,以充作拓展业务用途,上述地库市场价格已经接近1亿令吉,目前,尚未得知该公司将会出售或发展。

达证券认为,该公司将会脱售相关地库,以赚取该地块的价值。

联昌补充,若该公司脱售上述地库,可取得1亿令吉现金或每股42仙。

达证券说,该公司未来主要盈利来源包括攫取碧桂园、巴特西合约及攻占新的市场。

综合上述看法联昌及达证券一致维持“加码”及“买进”评级不变,不过联昌忧虑胜利者国际无法获得碧桂园合约,因此下砍该公司2017及2019财政年的每股净利预测,目标价也从1令吉62仙下调至1令吉30仙。

达证券认为胜利者国际每股净现金达20仙,可用于派发特别股息或回购,2017年本益比为10倍。

文章来源:星洲日报.投资致富.财富问诊.文:郑碧娥.2016.12.26

http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1599632/%E8%83%9C%E5%88%A9%E8%80%85%E5%9B%BD%E9%99%85%E5%90%88%E7%90%86%E4%BB%B7%E5%A4%9A%E5%B0%91%EF%BC%9F

[转贴] 【为什么要读别的公司的季度报告】 - Harryt30


Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Mon, 26 Dec 2016, 11:03 PM

【为什么要读别的公司的季度报告】

马来西亚股市的上市公司有920多家,你是不是只读自己持股的季度报告。或者说你完全不读季度报告??? 透过季度报告和年报,你才能更加了解一家公司的运作以及前景。

笔者的爱好之一就是阅读各种公司的Quarter Report, 因为里面有好多的宝藏等着你我挖掘。等到盈利爆发才阅读季报,会不会有点迟? 答案是的!!!

不要等到下雨天才找雨伞,
不要等到要大便才找厕纸,
不要等到盈利爆了才买进,
做足投资功课,风险也会降低。

不会做功课,
问google大神,
买投资书籍看,
读blogger分享。
直接问Harry «叫» Harry写,nono,这是不对的。
自己付出才是王道。

不过人都有惰性,笔者一个季度大约只翻读100多份季度报告,明年的目标是一个季度要阅读200份。

举个例子,透过阅读季度报告,你可以知道SCGM租厂并买进机器生产。而且未来几个季度会引进更多机器,这是否意味着未来营业额有不错的成长空间??

投资一定要做功课,你认同吗??

Harryt30

[转贴] 【上市公司的派息习惯】- Harryt30


Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Mon, 26 Dec 2016, 11:04 PM

【上市公司的派息习惯】

笔者一直跟大家分享乐于派发股息的公司,今天就列出其中60多家公司的派息习惯。基本上派息公司有4种:

一年派1次股息
一年派2次股息
一年派3次股息
一年派息4次或以上(特别股息)

马股有接近40多%的公司是不派股息的,因为亏钱的公司就有200多家,其余的就是赚得钱不多,没有能力派息。

今天列出的公司周息率 - DIVIDEND YIELD都超过3%, 其中不少都有超过5%的股息。假设你们有兴趣,大家可以再深入去研究做功课,找出你们有兴趣股票的周息率。

以下的派息公司是根据最近两年的派息记录做参考。

一年派息1次的公司:
JAYCORP
PETEONM
FAVCO
CSCSTEL
HEXZ
PANSAR
MITRA
APOLLO
UOADEV
YTL

一年派息2次的公司:
MAYBANK
HOMERIZ
LPI
AEONCR
UCHITEC
LITRAK
AFFIN
CHINWEL
CSCENIC
HAIO
PANAMY
TAANN
PERSTIM
HLIND
DLADY
TOPGLOV
APM
SCIENTX
PTARAS
PRTASCO
PAVREIT
HUPSENG
SAPIND
CMMT
TIENWAH

一年派息3次的公司:
SHL
NESTLE
UNISEM
SUPERLN(包括特别股息)
SAMCHEM

一年派息4次或以上(特别股息)的公司:
MATRIX
LIIHEN
BAUTO - 连续两年给特别股息
POHUAT
VS
HEVEA
TOMYPAK
BJTOTO
MAGNUM
MAGNI
BAT
SCICOM
PMETAL
BPLANT
SCGM
PWROOT
DIGI
INARI
PETDAG
GTRONIC
HARTA
BSTEAD
SUNREIT
JCY
CENTURY
PANTECH

派息的次数其实不重要,最重要的是派息的周息率要高。最好是可以股息年年成长,那就更加cantik了。不过一家公司可以每个季度都派发股息,这至少证明它们的现金流非常强健,每隔3个月就可以把一笔资金用来派发股息。一些股息收集癖的投资者喜欢每个季度都收到股息,这类股票就很受他们的青睐。

每年派发两次股息也是很多大型蓝筹公司习惯,就比如PBBANK,MAYBANK,IOICORP, KLK, PPB, SIME,CIMB以及TOPGLOV等。而大家也可以看到,大型蓝筹股的周息率大多低于3%,除非是多年前在低价买进。

此类公司大致上有固定的Dividend Policy, TOPGLOV的派息就是50%。因此此类公司很容易根据公司的盈利大约算出公司即将派发的股息。

假设一家公司一年只派发一次股息,但是周息率超过6%, 笔者相信股东还是会很开心的。不过一些公司盈利连续几年下跌,但是还是坚持派发高股息。此类公司其实就是在吃老本,因为派息的钱是由公司的盈利而来。

大部分有派息的公司是一年派发一次,过后就轮到一年派发2次。不过派发4次股息的公司是多过3次的,这基本上就是笔者注意到的派息习惯。如有遗珠没有出现,请大家多多见谅。

最后上一句话给各位读者:

再好的功课都是别人的,只有自己找自己研究的功课才属于你自己。

共勉之。

免责声明:
以上纯属分享,买卖自负。

Harryt30

A little COMMON SENSE goes a long way to Improve Investment Results! - investbullbear

A little COMMON SENSE goes a long way to Improve Investment Results! - investbullbear

Author: Tan KW   |   Publish date: Mon, 26 Dec 2016, 11:06 PM 

Monday, 26 December 2016

A little COMMON SENSE goes a long way to Improve Investment Results! The mistakes of some investors may be the profit opportunities for others.

 
Investors' decisions are affected by a number of psychological biases that lead investors to make systematic, predictable mistakes in certain decision-making situations.

These mistakes, in turn, may lead to predictable patterns in asset prices that create opportunities for other investors to earn abnormally high profits without accepting abnormally high risk.


Here are some of the behavioural factors that might influence the actions of investors:

1.  Overconfidence and Self-Attribution Bias
2.  Loss Aversion
3.  Representativeness
4.  Narrow Framing
5.  Belief Perseverance
6.  Familiarity Bias


Using Behaviour Finance to Improve Investment Results

Studies have documented a number of behavioural factors that appear to influence investors' decisions and adversely affect their returns.

By following some simple guidelines, you can avoid making mistakes and improve your portfolio's performance.

A little common sense goes a long way in the financial markets!


1.  Don't hesitate to sell a losing stock.

If you buy a stock at $20 and its price drops to $10, ask yourself whether you would buy that same stock if you came into the market today with $10 in cash.  

If the answer is yes, then hang onto it.

If not, sell the stock and buy something else.


2.  Don't chase performance.

The evidence suggests that there are no "hot hands" in investment management.

Don't buy last year's hottest mutual fund if it doesn't make sense for you.

Always keep your personal investment objectives and constraints in mind.


3.  Be humble and open-minded.

Many investment professionals, some of whom are extremely well paid, are frequently wrong in their predictions.

Admit your mistakes and don't be afraid to take corrective action.

The fact is, reviewing your mistakes can be a very rewarding exercise - all investors make mistakes, but the smart ones learn from them.

Winning in the market is often about not losing, and one way to avoid loss is to learn from your mistakes.


4.  Review the performance of your investments on a periodic basis.

Remember the old saying, "Out of sight, out of mind."

Don't be afraid to face the music and to make changes as your situation changes.

Nothing runs on "autopilot" forever - including investment portfolios.


5.  Don't trade too much

Investment returns are uncertain, but transaction costs are guaranteed.

Considerable evidence indicates that investors who trade frequently perform poorly.




Implications of Behavioural Finance for Security Analysis

Behavioural finance can play an important role in investing.

The contribution of behavioural finance is 

  • to identify particular psychological factors that can lead investors to make systematic mistakes, and 
  • to determine whether those mistakes may contribute to predictable patterns in stock prices.


If that is the case, the mistakes of some investors may be the profit opportunities for others.

See the above 5 common sense rules on how to keep your own mistakes to a minimum.
 
http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my/2016/12/a-little-common-sense-goes-long-way-to.html