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Wednesday, August 31, 2016

手套需求强劲.速柏玛维持买进

手套需求强劲.速柏玛维持买进
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Wed, 31 Aug 2016, 11:18 AM
2016-08-31 09:01

速柏玛2016财政年盈利和营业额表现冰火两重天,分析员看好医疗手套需求持续火热,将照亮未来盈利表现。

(吉隆坡30日讯)速柏玛(SUPERMX,7106,主板工业产品组)2016财政年盈利和营业额表现冰火两重天,分析员看好医疗手套需求持续火热,将照亮未来盈利表现。

速柏玛全年营业额在美元、平均售价走扬下,按年增长16.2%,但盈利仅为1亿5340万令吉,只缴出MIDF研究全年财测87.3%的逊色成绩。

MIDF研究说,速柏玛净利与税后归属股东净利赚益虽双降,但相信高税务只会对盈利带来短暂打击,看好在医疗手套需求强劲下,未来表现将更好,因此维持“买进”评级,目标价调高至3令吉零2仙。

股价:2令吉零3仙
总股本:6亿7127万股
市值:13亿6267万8100令吉
30天日均成交量:183万股
最新季度营业额:2亿6653万9000令吉
最新季度盈亏:净利678万7000令吉
每股净资产:1令吉52仙
本益比:11.06倍
周息率:2.36%
大股东:拿督斯里郑金森(20.71%)

Crowdfunding just got easier with Kickstarter’s Singapore launch

Crowdfunding just got easier with Kickstarter’s Singapore launch
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Wed, 31 Aug 2016, 04:53 PM
By Michelle Zhu / theedgemarkets.com.sg | August 31, 2016 : 12:22 PM MYT

SINGAPORE (Aug 31): Kickstarter today announced the official launch of its services in Singapore and Hong Kong – which marks the Brooklyn-based company’s maiden foray into Asia. It was previously only available to creators based in 18 markets including the US, UK, Canada and New Zealand.

But that’s not to say that Singapore’s creators and collaborators will be getting their hands on the crowdfunding platform for the first time ever. In fact, residents of Singapore and Hong Kong have been an active part of the Kickstarter community for years; over 100,000 individuals from these countries have made more than 600,000 pledges to creative projects to date, says the company in a press release today.

AICO Technologies’ Smart Egg universal remote and Masquerada: Songs and Shadows, a role-playing game (RPG) by Witching Hour Studios, are some examples of locally-produced projects in Singapore that have been funded via Kickstarter means. To do so, however, meant that the creators had to set up companies or work with collaborators in countries and markets where Kickstarter is established, to launch funding campaigns for their projects.

With Kickstarter’s Asia launch, barriers to entry have been reduced. The process of funding and collaborating through the platform has now become accessible to anyone in Singapore and Hong Kong with a local bank account and a verified identification.

Kickstarter, an online funding community for creative projects, provides aspiring creators access to a network of backers who may choose to pledge money in support of their projects, and receive rewards in return.

Should a project succeed in achieving its funding goal set by the creator, all backers will be charged the pledged sum at the project’s campaign deadline. Conversely, should the total amount pledged fall short of the goal by the deadline, no money will change hands.

“Kickstarter has empowered millions of people to be part of the development and production of new creative works. As one of the most exciting regions for emerging creative culture and innovation, we’re thrilled to begin to support creators in Asia,” says the company’s CEO and co-founder, Yancey Strickler.

Bryan Ong, a local creator on Kickstarter who has been working on an automated indoor plant-watering system project, asserts that crowdfunding is an “excellent way for individuals and small teams to get their ideas out into the market”.

“I believe Kickstarter provides a solid platform for local innovators and artists to showcase their ideas on the international stage,” he adds.



http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/crowdfunding-just-got-easier-kickstarter%E2%80%99s-singapore-launch

[转贴] 【套套平安】- KAREX(5247)先蹲后跳,一直可以持续成长10年以上的公司。 - Harryt30

[转贴] 【套套平安】- KAREX(5247)先蹲后跳,一直可以持续成长10年以上的公司。 - Harryt30
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Wed, 31 Aug 2016, 06:50 PM

Wednesday, August 31, 2016

KAREX(5247)在8月的最后一天公布了业绩,按年比较下跌了26%,全年盈利 则上涨了12.8%。不过笔者深信KAREX是一家值得长期持有的公司,毕竟人口增加也意味着KAREX的潜在客户不断地在成长。随着全球的教育水平提 高,生育规划也变得越来越普遍。而保险套也是众多避孕方式里最安全的,因此KAREX的前景一直以来都备受看好。

不过最新两个季度的盈利下滑,这也导致PE居高不下的KAREX面临上市以来最大的调 整。股价从高峰时期的RM3一度暴跌到RM2.16, 昨天闭市价格RM2.42。对于那些了解Karex价值的投资者,假设股价下跌不失为买进的机会。但是认为Karex的PE = 36.12过高的投资者,他们就会选择避开这种估值过高的公司。以下是KAREX的一些数据分析。



KAREX的业绩连续两个季度下滑,不过QOQ的盈利比上个季度进步了30.72%。

虽然Q2的美金汇率QOQ下跌了4.93%,但是KAREX这个季度有高达5.608 mil的外汇盈利。

公司在FY2016上半年保险套的营业额是43.859 mil,不过下半年却只有19.192 mil,这也是导致盈利下滑的主因。

不过以保险套的销售量计算,今年Q4去年同期还是有所增长的。

公司手握144.436 mil的现金以及25.893 的债务,所以净现金有118.543 mil,相等于每股现金12仙。

以现金流来看,公司已经连续3个季度都是Negative cash flow,意味着公司花钱比赚钱厉害。
不过这都是因为公司大笔的买进机器扩张产能,此外也花以800万美元(约3241万令吉)向美国Line One Laboratories Inc收购部分资产。

因此KAREX现在处于积极扩张以及累积的阶段,只要新厂开始运作,KAREX未来的营业额相信可以维持健康的成长。


公司在季报中解释最新季度盈利比上个季度好是因为美金汇率的利好。公司也对FY2017保持乐观,保险套强劲的需求以及KAREX本身出产的品牌将会为公司带来正面的成长。

有几位KAREX的投资者说,买KAREX是为了买它的前景。现在股价下跌之势暂时的,10年后就可以知道谁笑到最后。

以上纯属分析,买卖自负。

Harryt30
18.24p.m
2016.08.31

http://harryteo.blogspot.my/2016/08/1343-karex524710.html

Mudajaya - Brief Discussion on Q2 2016 Result - YiStock

Mudajaya - Brief Discussion on Q2 2016 Result - YiStock
Author: YiStock | Publish date: Tue, 30 Aug 2016, 11:09 PM







MUDAJAYA GROUP BERHAD
Actually i have mixed view on the latest result:

Based on latest Balance Sheet,

1) both short term and long term loan continue to reduced. From 600 million (Q3 2015) to 484 million (Q2 2016)
-> Repayment of loan 116 mil or 19.3% - GOOD

2) cash and cash equivalent:

Q3 2015 was 106.3 mil
Q4 2015 was 70.2 mil
Q1 2016 was 66.3 mil
Q2 2016 is 33.1 mil

Can see for cash portion, for the past 4 quarters, cash reduced by 73.2 mil. Where the money go? Noticed that Mudajaya has used total of 75.9 mil to repay bank loan (+ interest) from Q1 2016 & Q2 2016. At the same time also generated 43.5 mil positive cash flow from operation to fund the debt reduction - GOOD

3) The overall balance sheet has included the 26% india power asset part under under "Investment in Associate - approximately 98% of the total reported value".

From Q1 2016 to Q2 2016, the amount has reduced from 676 mil to 619 mil. A reduce of 57 million. The management explained it as depreciation charges. Please note that THIS IS NON-CASH ITEM as money already has been invested to build the UNIT 1 & 2 and become PPE and machine now has depreciated in value. Such a one-off big amount should be the accumulated depreciation since 2007 and UP TO 30 Jun 2016.

And i expect such depreciation will be normalized to it standard depreciation rate after this.

Thanks my friend who has reminded me on this NON-CASH LOSS. It is accounting practice to record such loss.

4) From also the India power plant, because they have achieved COD of UNIT 1 & 2, interest of the borrowing also cannot be capitalized after COD, i assume the amount of interest is 4 mil (61.3 mil - 57 mil)
(THIS IS ALSO NON-CASH ITEM)


5) What puzzle me is the "IMPAIRMENT LOSSES'- impairment of the Philippines wind farm related investmentamounted to 22.6 million. NO explanation offered on this.

But i would like to highlight, "Impairment losses on investment" VS "Impairment losses Receiveable" carry different meaning. For the wind farm case, It look more like a NON-CASH ITEM too.

CONCLUSION:

From above item 3, 4 & 5, a total of RM 83.6 NON-CASH ITEM LOSS has been registered. Dont be alarmed when you see -75.9 mil red colour .


After all, those are LIKELY one-off NON-CASH LOSSES and did not affect overall MUDAJAYA's EBITDA.


As long as the company can continue to generate enough cash to continue reduced both short and long term loan, the company is still hopeful.

Oct 2016 the power plant will start selling electricity.

Let wait for the contribution from UNIT 1 & UNIT 2

On other note, please also expect similar depreciation charges for Unit 3 and Unit 4.

cheers,
YiStock


Please note: Mudajaya is very complicated to study. I'm not very sure about my interpretation too. It is merely sharing my view and my view is meant for my own investment decision only.

[转贴]【亿雅风暴】- HEVEA(5095)之我有话说,它真的有那么差吗?? - Harryt30

[转贴]【亿雅风暴】- HEVEA(5095)之我有话说,它真的有那么差吗?? - Harryt30
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Tue, 30 Aug 2016, 09:54 PM
Tuesday, August 30, 2016

5月30日笔者出席了HEVEA(5095)在芙蓉的股东大会,当时公司宣布了30% 的派息政策。股东大会之后跟管理层聊天,当时他们说Q2的4月Shut Down了一阵子维修机器。通常Shut Down都是在Q1,因此大家可以注意到过往的Q1都是全年最差的季度。延迟Shut Down的原因是因为Q1的订单过多,因此4月Shut Down导致YOY的盈利下滑了5%。

不过公司遵守了自己的诺言,Q2派发了1.3仙的股息,这也是HEVEA上市以来派发 最高的一次单季股息。这几天股市开始回调,很多中小型股下跌5 - 10%不等。不过HEVEA的跌幅有点夸张,股价从8月22日的1.19, 短短下跌到现在的RM1.05, 跌幅11.76%,直逼1年新低。全年盈利下滑不到1.5%,股价却下跌了接近12%,这到底是为什么呢?

上图是HEVEA过往10个月的股价走势,1月5日的时候突破闭市新高RM1.73, 隔天一度走高到RM1.79。因为美金走低以及Mr Robert的文章出现,HEVEA的股价在双重打击下一直插水到RM1.15。虽然有几次尝试反弹,但是始终无功而返。而RM1.18也成为了这8个月 来最强的Support,只要跌破了RM1.18,几天之内一定会反弹回来。

但是这个星期HEVEA的成交量暴涨,今天更是来到4个多月的顶峰 - 6.403 mil股,卖压非常强劲,RM1.18的支撑也在上个星期失守。卖压强劲原因如下:


盈利下滑5%,部分的散户感到失望并丢货。
市场开始回调,大部分的中小型股都都中招,投资者套利
Mr Robert的文章再度出击,部分散户感到恐慌丢票。
不过假设仔细研究的话,为什么这么多的价值投资者还是那么推崇HEVEA,还是对HEVEA保持着信心呢??


公司的现金流不断进步,手握113.116 mil的现金,拥有98.46 mil的Net Cash。一个季度的现金流几乎增长了20 mil之多。
提高派息政策,FY2016已经派发了2.3仙的股息,全年周息率介于4.5 - 5.0%之间。
拨出RM 20 mil的CAPEX研发产品以及提高产能,长期可以振兴业务的成长。
公司的营业额以及盈利连续4年保持成长,可见管理层能力有多么出色。

对于Mr Robert所说的一切,身为散户的我们无从得知真假。希望管理层可以站出来让这场闹剧可以尽早结束,也避免无辜的小股东的利益受到伤害。

HEVEA真的有那么差吗??每位投资者心中都有一把尺,觉得被低估就趁低买进,觉得HEVEA很差就不要碰它。毕竟股票有人看好就有人看坏,你站在哪一方呢??



Harryt30
21.00p.m.
2016.08.30

http://harryteo.blogspot.my/2016/08/1342-hevea5095.html

林木生次季赚2015万

30点看 2016年8月31日

(吉隆坡30日讯)林木生集团(LBS,5789,主板产业股)截至6月30日次季净利按年下跌7%,至2015万4000令吉,或每股赚3.63仙,低于上财年同期的2174万1000令吉或4.08仙。

营业额则从2亿2302万2000令吉,按年微增1%,至2亿2561万2000令吉。


此外,税前盈利报3041万4000令吉,按年增长8%。

合计首半年,净利则上升11%,报3701万5000令吉,或每股净利6.66仙;上半年营业额也取得20%增长,录得4亿2608万4000令吉。

税前盈利方面也取得不俗表现,上半年累计5541万1000令吉,按年增长17%。

林木生集团次季与首半年营业额与税前盈利加强,主要推手来自Saujana Putra城、D’ Island Residence、金马伦Golden Hills、Putera Indah城、Sinaran Mahkota、Midhills工程和Alam Awana工程。

基于有17项工程在进行中、截至7月31日未入账销售达12.5亿令吉,以及今年新推发展计划的支撑下,集团有信心本财年将进一步取得更佳的业绩表现。

派6仙特别股息

另一方面,林木生集团也批准派发每股6仙的特别股息,并将分3梯次派发,每梯次为2仙。派发日期为今年末季,明年首季,以及明年次季。

大众投行分析员指出,林木生集团首半年净利符合预期,占全年净利预测的45%。在新房产持续推出的支撑下,相信接下来的季度将取得更好表现。”

“此外,年初至今,林木生的新销售已达8亿2700万令吉,离全年目标12亿令吉不远。”

林木生今日股价趋扬,闭市时报1.64令吉,全日扬升3仙,或1.86%,成交量达114万7500股。



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Pestech posts RM22.4m earnings in quarter ended June 30

Tuesday, 30 August 2016 | MYT 2:08 PM
Pestech posts RM22.4m earnings in quarter ended June 30

KUALA LUMPUR: Pestech International Bhd posted earnings of RM22.46mil in the quarter ended June 30, 2015 on the back of RM190.66mil in revenue and plans to increase its share of power infrastructure project.

The power technology company said on Tuesday the revenue was from projects and products which accounted for RM188mil or 98.6% and RM2.6mil or 1.4% respectively.

“The group recorded a gross profit margin of 29.8% for FY ended June 30, 2016,” it said.

Pestech said its FY was changed from Dec 31 to June 30 to cover the 18 months from Jan 1, 2014 to June 30, 2015 and thereafter, to end at June 30 each year. Hence, there were no comparative figures following the change of financial year end.

“The management will continue pursuing opportunities in the power infrastructure business including power transmission asset build up and rail electrification in the region to propel our growth further in the future,” it said.

Pestech said the group would step up its efforts in the procurement of power infrastructure project in Malaysia, Cambodia and also newer markets like Indonesia and the Philippines.

“With this strategy in place, Pestech is poised to deliver promising growth in the coming financial year supported by our strong order book,” it said.

Top Glove buys land for RM52mil to expand production

Wednesday, 31 August 2016
Top Glove buys land for RM52mil to expand production

PETALING JAYA: Glovemaker Top Glove Corp Bhd is buying a 3.44ha plot of freehold land that comes with a factory located in the Sungai Puloh industrial area near Klang for RM51.5mil.

The acquisition would allow the company to expand its production lines. Top Glove’s local factories are mostly located in Klang.

The company said in a filing with Bursa Malaysia that the land and factory was bought from steel product maker YKGI Holdings Bhd.

“Barring any unforeseen circumstance, the board expects the proposed acquisition to be completed by the first quarter of 2017,” it said.

Tokio Marine in talks with RHB, could pay RM2bil for insurance arm

Wednesday, 31 August 2016
Tokio Marine in talks with RHB, could pay RM2bil for insurance arm
BY YVONNE TAN

PETALING JAYA: Japanese insurance giant Tokio Marine Holdings Inc is in exclusive talks to buy out the general insurance business of RHB Bank Bhd.

Citing people familiar with the matter, Reuters said RHB, the fourth-largest banking group in the country, expects the property and casualty insurer to pay up to 3.5 times book value of the business or some US$500mil (RM2.025bil), making it possibly one of the most expensive non-life insurance deals in the South-East Asian region if the deal materialises.

Shares in RHB Bank finished seven sen higher to RM5 at yesterday’s close.

Recall in 2013, MetLife’s acquisition of AMMB Holdings Bhd’s life insurance and takaful units was completed at three times price-to-book, valuing the deal at a price tag of RM812mil.

Also in the same year, Sun Life Financial Inc and Khazanah Nasional Bhd agreed on the RM1.8bil deal to buy CIMB Aviva Assurance and CIMB Aviva Takaful from Aviva International Holdings Ltd and CIMB Group Holdings Bhd, valuing it at 3.2 times price-to-book.

In 2010, there was a record-high deal when Hong Leong Assurance Bhd, with both of its life and general insurance businesses, sold for a hefty 6.5 times book.

However, observers said that particular deal’s high valuation was justified, as it comprised both the general and life insurance businesses.

In general, the average valuation for general insurers is lower - about 1.9 times book – compared with life insurers at about 2.8 times.

A book value is basically the value at which an asset, in this case, insurance businesses, is carried on a balance sheet.

Buyers generally look at factors such as the existence of a ready market, economies-of-scale and the financial strength of the business when deciding on the price they are willing to pay. Whether or not it fits strategically into the buyer’s overall growth plans also plays a huge role.

Most deals fall through due to pricing issues when both parties cannot agree on a suitable price.

Meanwhile, Reuters said the Tokio Marine-RHB deal could include an agreement for the distribution of Tokio Marine products through the bank.

Notably, Tokio Marine will not be the only one employing such a model, as another Japanese insurance firm, Sompo Japan Nipponkoa Holdings Inc, has a 15-year tie-up with CIMB.

Under this deal which was sealed in June, CIMB will sell and distribute Sompo’s non-life insurance products in Malaysia as well as Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore.

Sompo, which has total assets of US$89.7bil and net written premiums of US$22.5bil, has said that bancassurance has been identified as one of its primary sales channels in the region.

Interestingly, Japanese insurance firms were reportedly among the most active buyers of overseas insurance businesses globally last year, even as demand for insurance products in the world’s third-largest economy is being affected by an increasingly ageing Japanese population.

In the case of Tokio Marine, its more recent acquisition exercises include buying US-based HCC Insurance Holdings Inc for about US$7.5bil in what was touted to be the biggest acquisition by a Japanese insurer.

DRB-Hicom posts Q1 net loss of RM169m as Proton weighs

Tuesday, 30 August 2016 | MYT 6:41 PM
DRB-Hicom posts Q1 net loss of RM169m as Proton weighs
BY JOSEPH CHIN

KUALA LUMPUR: DRB-Hicom Bhd posted net losses of RM169.30mil in the first quarter ended June 30, 2016 weighed down by losses from its car manufacturing operations under Proton.

The diversified group said on Tuesday the net losses widened from the RM19.72mil a year ago. Its revenue fell 15.2% to RM2.50bil from RM2.95bil. Loss per share was 8.76 sen to 1.02 sen. Its net asset per share was RM3.29 sen compared with RM3.38 a share.

DRB-Hicom said the decline in revenue was mainly due to lower sales volume of Proton vehicles and lower percentage of completion of AV8 project for the current quarter. It recorded a loss of RM209.18mil from the automotive sector compared with

The group incurred a pre-tax loss of RM121.34mil in Q1, FY17 compared with pre-tax profit of RM16.68mil a year ago mainly due to lower sales of motor vehicles by the automotive companies during the current quarter.

DRB-Hicom said in Q4 ended March 31, 2016, there were write down of inventories, impairment of certain intangible assets and project expenditure.

“In the competitive market conditions, the group will remain focused on its business consolidation to ensure the continuous growth and sustainability of its businesses,” it said.

It said the Group recently obtained approvals from shareholders to consolidate its logistics businesses via the integration of services by KL Airport Services Sdn Bhd, Konsortium Logistik Bhd and DRB-Hicom Asia Cargo Express Sdn. Bhd. into Pos Malaysia Bhd to streamline and enhance the synergies within postal and logistics businesses and to tap the demand of the e-commerce activities.

“The integration of logistic businesses within the group will reduce dependency on the automotive sector in the future. Upon the completion of the above exercise, the group’s equity interest in Pos Malaysia will increase to 53.50%, thus becoming a subsidiary company,” it said.

DRB-Hicom said it was also focused on the execution of Proton’s turnaround plan to develop a strong foundation for sustainable business.

It said Proton wasundertaking a request for proposal exercise to seek a strategic partner which could provide a strategic and operational business model to grow its automotive business.

“This exercise is expected to be completed in the first half of 2017 and its implementation is being closely monitored by the Task Force Committee formed by the fovernment to ensure the success of Proton's turnaround,” it said.

DRB-Hicom said Proton recently launched the new Perdana and Persona models and these launches are expected to improve the sales volume for the financial year.

However, it said on the back of slower overall economic growth, the group’s performance for the financial year ending March 31, 2017 will continue to remain challenging.

Tuesday, August 30, 2016

MEGA FIRST CORPORATION - Earnings On Track

MEGA FIRST CORPORATION - Earnings On Track
Author: PublicInvest | Publish date: Tue, 30 Aug 2016, 09:56 AM

Mega First (MFCB) registered a 1HFY16 core net profit of RM19.8m after stripping out construction profit of RM40.9m for the Don Sahong Hydropower Project in Laos and other exceptional items totaling RM1.6m. The results are in line, making up 41% of our full-year earnings forecasts, considering 2H is always seasonally stronger. No dividend was declared for the quarter. We maintain our Outperform call with an unchanged TP of RM2.29.

2QFY16 revenue (QoQ: -9.5%, YoY: +33.6%). Excluding the construction revenue of RM61.1m for the Don Sahong Hydropower project in Laos, Group’s revenue would have fallen 7.7% YoY. Power contributions fell 15.6% YoY to RM96.9m, mainly due to weaker sales from both China and Tawau power operations. Tawau’s power revenue slipped 30.1% YoY, attributed to the shorter operating hours (-13.8%). Meanwhile, China’s sales volume of steam and energy dropped 7.7% and 8.8%, respectively. Average steam price and energy tariff contracted 9.3% and 6.4%, respectively. Resources business grew 11.3% YoY to RM23.7m, led by higher sales volume of lime products in both local and export markets and favourable FX translation gain, partially offset by weaker lime product prices. Property revenue jumped 62.9% YoY to RM62.9m, attributed to final progress billings of a residential development project in Melaka.

2QFY16 core net profit (QoQ: +11.7%, YoY: -42.3%). Excluding the construction profit of RM16.2m, the group would have made only RM31.7m, down 7.5% YoY for the quarter, due to weaker earnings contribution from power (-22.8%) and resources (-7.6%). Power segment experienced a lag in the adjustment of steam prices and lower tariffs, partially offset by favourable FX translation from the China operations. Resources segment suffered from margin erosion in lime products, attributed to higher interest expense and depreciation charges as a result of the newly commissioned kiln and hydration plant and weaker limestone selling prices.

Prospects. Management sees steam sales in China remains weak in 2H, mainly affected by poor industrial demand. The hydropower project in Laos remains on track with 7.4% completion as of today. Meanwhile, the limestone business is expected to be stronger in the remaining quarters, buoyed by better demand from the regional markets.

Share price performed well. Share price moved up close to 10% while volume doubled over the last one month. For those investors, who bought the shares and subscribed for the rights issue, their position should be in the money at current share price

Source: PublicInvest Research - 30 Aug 2016

棕油出口涨势延续 种植领域前景正面

2016年08月28日 | 记者:雷洁敏
棕油出口涨势延续 种植领域前景正面

来自中国强劲的需求加上原棕油產量仅稍微增长,带动大马7月份棕油库存量意外下滑。市场人士大致认为,即將到来的中秋佳节,將提振中国方面的需求,並预期8月份的棕油出口需求將延续涨势。

整体而言,大部份分析员均正面看待种植领域,並保持原有的投资建议。

大马衍生產品交易所的棕油期货价格在8月15日衝破每公吨2600令吉,至2622令吉;並在8月17日进一步走高至每公吨2643令吉,创下自6月3日以来的逾两个月新高水平。无论如何,棕油期货价格隨后回软,在8月18日无法守住每公吨2600令吉关卡,並在8月19日以每公吨2578令吉掛收。

上周,棕油期货价格进一步趋软,上周五(8月26日)以每公吨2549令吉掛收,按周跌29令吉。


未来2月產量回升 棕油价涨势难持续

大马棕油局(MPOB)8月10日公佈的数据显示,我国7月份棕油库存按月微跌0.23%,至177万公吨,相比6月份的178万公吨,为过去5年来,棕油库存首次呈跌的7月份。这主要是因为同期的棕油出口量按月增幅优于预期,本地7月份棕油出口按月攀升21.24%,至138万公吨。

分析员大致认为,7月份棕油库存令人意外的按月下滑0.2%,至177万公吨,主要是获益于中国强劲的需求,推高原棕油出口增加21%。同时,市场人士预期,8月份原棕油出口將延续这个涨势。而在季节性生產高峰期间,8月份的棕油產量也將强劲回弹。

大眾投行和联昌国际分析员表示,来自中国强劲的需求,加上原棕油產量些许增长,带动大马7月份棕油库存量意外下滑,促使7月份出口止停连续3个月下滑的情况。而中国强劲的需求,主要是因为即將到来的中秋佳节所致。

联昌国际分析员指出,7月份库存177万公吨,低于所预测的181万公吨。按年比较,库存则下滑22%。

「针对7月份的库存量低于预期,我们稍微感到正面。而原棕油產量成长放缓,主要是因为佳节期间较低的生產力所致。」

肯纳格研究分析员也相信,7月份產量仅增加3%,部份原因是佳节月份(开斋节)导致较少的工作日。数据显示,沙巴的產量相比去年同期仅上扬0.2%,半岛则收窄24%。

该分析员也说,从数据可见,国內使用量下滑24%,至21万8000公吨,分別低于他和市场预测24%及17%,相信是因为延迟实施B10生物柴油计划,导致本地需求恢復正常所致。

与此同时,数据显示,大马7月份棕油出口按月攀升21.3%,主要市场的出口均走高,即中国(+109%)、欧盟(+25.9%)、印度(+11.9%)、美国(+153.1%),而巴基斯坦则下跌31.4%。

联昌国际分析员指出,原棕油出口按月飆升至138万公吨,是今年以来最高的出口量。这主要是受到中国强劲的需求,以及美国棕油出口在首7个月下跌8%,至870万公吨所提振。

肯纳研究分析员则认为,儘管7月份出口高于预期,但仍是低于8年来7月份的平均出口148万公吨,以及比去年同期出口量161万公吨少14%。

未来3个月走软

「因此,我们认为,出口回升的现象不会持续,並相信中国的需求会在8月份开始减缓。」

不过,印度和巴基斯坦的需求量在未来1至2个月內,预料將因为节日需求提高而走强。整体而言,分析员预期8月份出口持平在140万公吨,或按月增加1%,並预估库存將增加6%,至187万公吨。

此外,Intertek货柜调查机构最新数据显示,8月首25天,大马原棕油出口按月增31%;而SGS的调查数据则指出,同期的原棕油出口按月提高30%,这比15日数据更强劲。正面的出口数据也提振原棕油价格走势,在8月17日衝上每公吨2668令吉,不过在上周回软至每公吨2549令吉。

肯纳格研究分析员说,7月份库存意外减少对棕油价格短期走势利好,但预期9月和10月份的產量將增加,所以棕油价格的涨势料无法持续。

该分析员预计,原棕油价格在短期內將介于每公吨2330令吉至2600令吉区间交易。

「由于预期原棕油价格將在未来两三个月走软,我们建议投资者可考虑在当前套利。」

分析员补充说,库存预计在下个季度上升,这將不利于原棕油价格。

下半年平均价维持

「我们维持棕油下半年平均价格在每公吨2000令吉至2500令吉之间的预测,该预测是假设大豆油每公吨溢价40美元,以及瓦斯油(gasoil)每公吨折价90美元。」

此外,大眾投行分析员则正面看待原棕油前景,他预测原棕油2016年平均价格为每公吨2500令吉,2017年则为每公吨2600令吉。

联昌国际分析员也预计,8月份原棕油价格將在每公吨2200至2600令吉之间交易,而2016和2017年的原棕油平均价则预计为每公吨2450令吉及2600令吉。

次季业绩展望按年持平 按季改善

展望8月份的棕油数据,肯纳格研究分析员相信,大马半岛產量料比去年同期低25%,砂拉越產量则略微上涨,而沙巴则下滑。

无论如何,他乐观看待季节性趋势,8月份產量料回升10%,至174万公吨。

联昌国际分析员预计,棕油供应从8月起將按月增加,符合季节性生產高峰,但这无法弥补厄尔尼诺现象导致今年首7个月產量减少约170万公吨。

因此,该分析员將今年大马棕油供应预测下调6%,至1790万公吨,並预估全年原棕油供应將按年下滑10%。

「我们初步估计8月棕油库存將按月增加1%,至179万公吨,產量和出口则分別提高8%和5%。」

至于种植公司2016年次季业绩表现,联昌国际和肯纳格研究分析员皆预测,它们的业绩按季將改善,按年则持平。

肯纳格研究分析员指出,按季比较,原棕油价格提高8%,至平均每公吨2601令吉,而產量则提高15%,至389万公吨。按年比较,虽然原棕油价格料提高19%,但產量却显著下滑26%。

儘管如此,分析员认为,不少种植业者的表现可能会低于市场预期,儘管次季表现普遍良好,但无法弥补首季疲弱的表现。





印尼供应减

另一方面,MIDF研究分析员指出,从印尼进口的棕油非常低,只有1万2823公吨,按月和按年分別下滑35%及91%;但该分析员正面看待此现象,因为显示该国的生物柴油计划正顺利运行。更多的原棕油用在生物柴油领域,意味著印尼的供应將减少,利好大马棕油出口。

大眾投行和MIDF研究分析员重申种植领域「增持」和「正面」投资评级。

前者首选种植股为嘉隆发展(TDM,2054)和大安控股(TAANN,5012);而后者的首选股则是吉隆甲洞(KLK,2445)。

然而,肯纳格研究、联昌国际、艾芬黄氏和丰隆投行分析员皆维持该领域「中和」评级。

联昌国际的首选股为云顶种植(GENP,2291);肯纳格研究首选吉隆甲洞,主要是看好它是大资本股,以及是一家综合营运种植商,面临的下行风险较低,同时其鲜果串成长前景正面,为盈利提供一些成长空间。

另一方面,达证券分析员虽看好棕油出口成长趋势將在8月延续,受中国和印度强劲需求提振,但却认为该涨势无法持续至年底,而重申种植领域「减持」评级。

「一般情况下,原棕油需求將在中秋佳节和中国国庆一周长假前,增长1至2个月。」

值得注意的是,中国的棕油库存下滑至自2010年以来的新低水平,在8月5日达35万8000公吨,主要因为上半年较低的进口。因此,补仓活动是不可避免的,以满足今年夏季国內高需求。

印度需求升

此外,达证券分析员预计,印度吃紧的农作物供应,將进一步推高该国需求。根据印度气象局(IMD)指出,该国在下半年面对西南季候风的降雨量,可能高于正常水平。一些州属可能面对洪水,造成农作物减少。

不过,该分析员指出,儘管原棕油產量季节性上涨,库存下滑加上强劲需求,有助在未来支撑原棕油价格;但预期8月份原棕油价格將介于每公吨2500令吉至2700令吉之间交易。

由于估值昂贵,该分析员给予IOI集团(IOICORP,1961)、吉隆甲洞、森那美(SIME,4197)和FELDA环球投资(FGV,5222)「卖出」投资评级;而IJM种植(IJMPLNT,2216)及联合马六甲(UMCCA,2593)则是「守住」投资评级。

CIMB Research downgrades Supermax to Hold

Tuesday, 30 August 2016 | MYT 8:01 AM
CIMB Research downgrades Supermax to Hold

KUALA LUMPUR: CIMB Equities Research downgraded Supermax to Hold from Add with a lower target price of RM2.30 from RM2.70 earlier.

It said on Tuesday its target price was still based on 12 times CY17F price-to-earnings (P/E), in line with its five-year mean and -one standard deviation of the glove sector’s five-year mean).

“Although the stock is trading at a discount of 40.7% to the sector’s 5-year historical mean, we believe this was due to its inconsistent earnings and concerns about its future expansion.

“Given the capacity delivery concerns, we believe its risk-reward dynamics are now less positive. Downside/Upside risks are continuous delay in its expansion plans and stronger/weaker pricing competition,” it said.

CIMB Research said while Supermax's FY16 revenue rose 3.9% on-year, its net profit expanded a swifter 8.2% on-year to RM105.2mil.

Overall, the better on-year performance was mainly attributable to: i) ramp up of production at Plants 10 and 11, leading to increased output; ii) favourable environment in 2HCY15 (low latex prices and strong US$/RM); and iii) increasing operating efficiencies.

“However, the FY16 earnings were still below expectations, accounting for only 85% of our and 71% of consensus estimates,” it said.

The research house said Supermax’s weaker-than-expected 4QFY16 performance was mainly due to the sharp spike in the group’s tax rate to 80.3% (+64.7 percentage points).

It said the increase in tax payments were due to under-provisioning in previous quarters as well as a one-off payment of RM7.7mil in respect to previous years’ assessments (2007, 2009-11).

The ongoing industry-wide pricing competition and partial loss of production output at its Kapar plant also added to the 72.5% on-year decline in 4QFY16 earnings to RM6.8mil.

“We expect earnings to improve with the resumption of full production from the revamped lines at its Kapar plant. Furthermore, the group has started commercial production at 14 of the 20 lines in Plants 10 and 11.

“However, we understand that the current water supply is insufficient to run the remaining six lines though management is working closely with the authorities to secure more water supply. Hence, we are not inputting any output (1.7 billion pieces per annum) from the remaining six lines into our estimates for now.

“Given that the FY16 results were below expectations, we trim our earnings estimates by 14.7%-16.5% for FY17-18F after inputting: i) lower production capacity estimates, and ii) reduction in average selling prices (ASPs) given the competitive environment.

“We also introduce our FY19 estimates. We turn less positive on the stock due to concerns about the delivery of the remaining six lines at its Plants 10 & 11,” it added.

CIMB Research keeps Add call for AirAsia, target price RM4.15

Tuesday, 30 August 2016 | MYT 8:17 AM
CIMB Research keeps Add call for AirAsia, target price RM4.15

KUALA LUMPUR: AirAsia’s first half 2016 core net profit outperformed CIMB Equities Research’s forecasts by about 15%, due to higher-than-expected load factors with yields keeping stable.

“We maintain our Add call and target price of RM4.15, pegged to a CY17 price-to-earnings (P/E) of nine times (peer range six to 12 times), and adding in an expected 96 sen a share special dividend,” it said on Tuesday.

The research house said although competition is heating up, its FY17 forecasts have downside protection as it has a high spot jet fuel price assumption of US$70 a barrel. Key rerating catalyst is the sale of Asia Aviation Capital (AAC) and the expected special dividend.

AirAsia delivered a group core net profit of RM218mil during 2Q16 as a result of the industry capacity rationalisation in Malaysia that was driven mainly by Malaysian Airline’s capacity cuts from August 2015. This continued the trend of healthy profits seen over the past four quarters.

AirAsia has convincingly recovered from the losses suffered in the year before as a result of the QZ8501 crash in late-2014.

Thailand did better on-year due to the strong inflow of Chinese tourists, while Indonesia and the Philippines reduced their losses after they rationalised their fleet and cut loss-making routes. Even India managed to reduce its losses with higher loads and lower unit costs.

“AirAsia reiterated that its sale of 70%-80% stake in AAC is targeted for completion by end-2016, with an equity valuation of at least US$1bil. Assuming AirAsia realises US$800mil from the sale of 80% of AAC, the RM3.2bil proceeds could be declared as dividends,” said the research house.

CIMB Research said the proposed 20% private placement of 559 million new shares at RM1.84 each to its two founders – Tan Sri Tony Fernandes and Datuk Kamarudin Meranun – is now awaiting Bank Negara approval since it will be financed by foreign banks.

It will enlarge AirAsia’s share base to 3.342 billion shares and take the founders’ stake to 32.4%. Hence, the special dividends may amount to 96 sen share post-placement, of which RM1bil will be paid to the two founders, just enough to settle the loans used to subscribe for the placement.

Even though MAS has not increased its narrow-body fleet of 56 737-800s, 15%-20% of its seats are available from August at lower prices in an effort to raise its average loads from 68% to 80%. Meanwhile, Malindo added four 737-800s and two ATR72-600s in July and August after keeping its fleet unchanged during 1H16, with more deliveries expected in the months ahead.

“Our forecasts assume that AirAsia’s base yields will fall 4% in FY17, continuing the 1% decline expected for FY16.

“AirAsia has hedged 73% of its 2H16 fuel requirements at an average strike price of US$56 a barrel of jet fuel, and 43% of FY17’s at US$58 a barrel, giving AirAsia high protection against any unexpected spike in the price of jet fuel for the next 1½ years.

“Our spot fuel price assumption for FY17 is currently at US$70/bbl, but if the spot price remains at the current level of US$56/bbl, our FY17 base yields may be reduced by 6 percentage points (to a decline of 10% on-year) without affecting our current FY17 forecasts,” CIMB Research.

Monday, August 29, 2016

CB Industrial Product - Held Back by Higher Steel Cost

CB Industrial Product - Held Back by Higher Steel Cost
Author: kiasutrader | Publish date: Mon, 29 Aug 2016, 10:15 AM

CB Industrial Product (CBIP)’s 1H16 Core Net Profit (CNP*) of RM32.7m missed our (33%) and market (34%) forecasts as margins thinned in the Palm Oil Mill Equipment (POME) segment due to higher steel costs. No dividend was declared, as expected. After accounting for lower POME margins, FY16-17E earnings were reduced by 13-14% for lower TP of RM2.15 (from RM2.35). Downgrade to MARKET PERFORM on softer margin outlook.

Below expectations. CBIP’s 1H16 CNP at RM32.7m came in below consensus’ RM95.5m forecast at 34%, and below our RM199.4m forecast at 33%. This was largely due to higher tax rates post-pioneer status and weaker POME segment margin as steel prices rose c.20% QoQ. No dividend was announced, as expected.

Higher raw material cost. YoY-Ytd, 1H16 CNP declined 12% on higher tax rates (32% against 1H15’s 17%) and weaker POME segment PBT (-21%). After excluding investment and forex losses, core POME PBT declined 2% to RM50.5m as core margin thinned to 24% (from 26%) due to higher raw material prices (largely steel). This was slightly offset by doubled (retrofitting special purpose vehicle) RSPV segment PBT (+206%) on the commencement of new projects. QoQ, 2Q16 CNP rose 32% as Plantation losses reversed to PBT of RM2.5m. RSPV PBT also jumped 108% on new projects. POME PBT improved 10% on lower investment losses, but Core PBT declined 14% to RM23.3m on lower Core margins (22% from 27%) due to higher steel prices.

Rising cost risks. We remain positive on CBIP’s prospects with POME order book at c.RM 500m, which should sustain revenue for the next two years. With current supportive CPO prices, we expect good demand heading into 3Q16. However, as steel prices have turned increasingly volatile in recent months, we think the main earnings risk lie in raw material costs.

Reduce FY16-17E CNP by 13-14% to RM87.1-97.7m as we adjust POME margin lower in line with higher steel cost assumption.

Downgrade to MARKET PERFORM with lower TP of RM2.15 (previously RM2.34). We lower our TP to RM2.15 as we account for lower earnings and roll forward our valuation base year to FY17E (from average FY16-17E) for lower applied EPS of 18.4 sen (from 20.0 sen). Our Fwd. PER is maintained at 11.7x, reflecting the strong order book status and two-year earnings visibility. However, we downgrade our call to MARKET PERFORM (from OUTPERFORM) in light of increasing risk of volatile margins.

Source: Kenanga Research - 29 Aug 2016

[转贴] 【地桩之王】- ECONBHD(5235)上市两年多ROI = 188.8%, FY2017展望正面 - Harryt30

[转贴] 【地桩之王】- ECONBHD(5235)上市两年多ROI = 188.8%, FY2017展望正面 - Harryt30
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Mon, 29 Aug 2016, 12:54 PM
Monday, August 29, 2016

ECONBHD(5235)上市只有两年多,但是它的市值已经超越了PTARAS, 成为马股Piling领域市值最高的建筑股。而且当初上市的价格是54仙,现在价格大约RM1.50, 加上累积6仙的股息,两年多的ROI大约是188.88%。而且公司手上还有大约6.5亿的合约,未来两年的盈利可见度非常高。上个星期交出了亮眼的业 绩,以下是ECONBHD的一些分析。


ECONBHD维持8个季度的神话终于终止,盈利终于做不到每个季度都在成长。这次的Net profit = 17.019 mil,比之前的17.89 mil少赚了RM871,000.
不过YOY还是进步了22%,营业额也是新高。不过Q4是FY2016唯一一个季度Net Profit Margin低于14%的季度,这个季度的比上个季度的14.66%足足低了1.40%。
公司的现金从59.263 mil下滑到43.636 mil,主要是因为派发了派发2.5 cent的股息,相当于13.375 mil.
而Total Borrowing从26.971 mil上升到30.866 mil,净现金12.77 mil。
以盈利的表现来看,Econbhd无疑是非常出色的。但是公司的Trade Receivable却从FY15Q1的156.561 mil上升到247.92 mil。营业额的增加代表着客户的欠账增加了,所以ECONBHD有大部分的现金被套在这里。
这是无数建筑公司都会面对的问题,当建筑合约越来越多的时候,公司需要买的机器也跟着增加。因此跟上市初期相比,ECONBHD的现金流是有所下滑的。
不过公司的Gearing ratio处于0.12 的健康水平,而且又是Net Cash公司。假设需要更多的资金,银行是非常乐意借贷给他们的。

虽然最新季度的Net Profit Margin有所下滑,但是全年还是比去年优秀的。



公司在营业额上涨的情况下盈利却下滑了,主要是因为部分的兼职工程以及临近尾声,所以进账比较少。此外,钢铁股的价格上涨也提高了ECONBHD的建筑成本,因此也拉低了Profit Margin。

所以股市是很公平的,钢铁公司会因为钢铁价格而获利,比如ANNJOO, CSCSTEEL, ENGTEX等。同时建筑领域的成本也会增加,这就是一个健康的循环。喜欢趋势的朋友就会从中找到商机,并且提前买进。

扣除这次的营业额,ECONBHD大约还有6.5亿的合约在手,公司可以继续忙碌到 2017年底。而且大马陆续会有大型合约出炉,相信ECONBHD会是其中一位受益者。而且6月拿到的2亿合约会在FY2017开始贡献盈利,相信 FY2017还是可以保持正面的成长。而AMBANK更是给出了RM1.90的Target Price,因此展望正面。


以上纯属分析,买卖自负。


Harryt30
12.40p.m
2016.08.29

Thong Guan - Brief Discussion on Q2 2016 Result (10) - YiStock

Thong Guan - Brief Discussion on Q2 2016 Result (10) - YiStock
Author: YiStock | Publish date: Mon, 29 Aug 2016, 09:44 AM



Last week, Thong Guan has released a "great" set of financial result.

For investors who focus on Y-o-Y result, you cheers :-)

For investors who focus on Q-o-Q result, you curse ;-(

For investors who focus both Q-o-Q and Y-o-Y like me, i try to interprete more carefully.

Once again, the triple excellent balance sheet need not be discussed. We will touch on balance sheet only when special item pop out.

Below the key explaination extracted from Q2 16 result:



The "not so great" Q2 2016 result are due to

1) higher depreciation charges (Q-o-Q) - amounted to approximately RM 184 k

Interpretation: Nothing to be alarmed about as it is still within normal range. In fact, it is lower Y-o-Y

3) Depreciating USD (Q-o-Q)

Interpretation: if you used quarterly rate, the USD did depretiated, but when use beginning vs end rate, the USD appreciated. In Q2 16, Thong Guan recorded a net forex gain of RM 2.15 million. This is not suprising to me as many have noted an "unrealized" forex losses of RM 2.9 million in Q1 2016. Personally i see this as positive sign as during my discussion in earlier article, i prefer Thong Guan to maintain its earning without interferrence from forex gain/losses. Its 2015 full year forex losses stand at RM 9.1 million. So far after 2 quarters of 2016, the forex has net losses of RM 0.78k only. The core earning after 1H 16 is RM 27.5 million vs RM 16.9 million in 1H 2015. I'm pleased. (Refer table below)

2) Higher Production Wastage due to testing and commissioning of new machines

Interpretation: This caught my attention! How big is the impact? Is this re-occurable event? Where is the impact in the financial statement? If this is one-off event, how it impact the core earning? Below i try to interprete.



Thong Guan has cosistantly recorded Gross Profit Margin of approximately 17.3% for past 3 consecutive quarters. However, there is a surge in COGS which causing the Gross Profit Margin retreated to 14.14%. A drop of 3.24%. If you used the RM 183.5 mil revenue as base, this 3.24% shortage is equivalent to RM 5.95 mil.

The point of consideration now are:

(1) is the wastage represented by a drop of 3.24% or RM 5.95 mil worth of profit?

(2) if it is, is the item re-occurable?

(3) or is the drop totally not related to the production testing wastage?

IF, i choose (1) as my interpretation and (2) NOT RE-OCCURABLE,

(1) the Q2 16 earning reported should be RM 20.95 million of which 16.78 mil is the Q2 16's core earning.

(2) Based on RM 20.95 mil profit, it is equivalent to 19.9 EPS which make the TTM EPS 57.7 sen

(3) Q1+Q2 16 Core Earning become RM 33.4 mil. Which make it possible to hit full year 2016 core earning above RM 66 million

This is a remarkable result!

AGAN, I believe these are up to individual investor to interprete.

Note: The revenue recorded are largely influced by the price of resin. i.e. a drop / increase in revenue should not be interpreted as it is because when resin price decreases, the selling price will follow suit. Therefore, for Q2, 2016, the slight increase of 2.1% does not means it increases at that quantum.

Conclusion:

LET WAIT Q3 2016 to verify

Cheers!

YiStock

Signature eyes overseas market for more orders

Signature eyes overseas market for more orders
By Yimie Yong / The Edge Financial Daily | August 29, 2016 : 9:58 AM MYT
This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on August 29, 2016.

KUALA LUMPUR: While making into Forbes Asia’s “Best Under A Billion” list this year is something Signature International Bhd can be proud of, it is still the ability to replenish orders that is investors’ utmost concern about the company.

“Based on the current order book and the tender book, we are confident FY17 (financial year ending June 30, 2017) will be better than FY16,” Signature co-founder and group managing director Tan Kee Choong told The Edge Financial Daily in a recent interview.

This was despite a slowdown in the local property scene, on which Signature’s project division — which secures projects from property developers by providing kitchen cabinets for the residential units that are rolled out — relies. The project division now contributes about 70% of Signature’s total revenue.

“We aren’t too worried as the situation is not very alarming,” said Kee Choong, though he admitted there is a noticeable slowdown in new property launches. “We used to secure projects from tier-1 property developers only. Now, we work with tier-2 and boutique developers too.”

Its project division’s order book stood at RM205 million as at end-July, which Kee Choong anticipates should last Signature between one and two years, depending on the progress of the projects. “There will be more [awards] coming in, in the next two to three months.”

The group’s tender book stands at “about RM400 million to RM500 million”, and Signature has historically been able to secure four to five projects out of every 10 jobs it tendered for.

Kee Choong’s optimism notwithstanding, Signature has felt the pinch of the cooling property market here. Its net profit for the third quarter ended March 31, 2016 (3QFY16) fell 62.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) to RM5.01 million from RM13.39 million, as revenue declined 37.5% to RM54.69 million, mainly due to lower project revenue contribution from both the kitchen and wardrobe, and glass and aluminium segments.

For the cumulative nine months, net profit sank 51.8% y-o-y to RM15.55 million from RM32.25 million, as revenue fell 29.1% to RM154.54 million. Its earnings were also affected by the weakening ringgit against the US dollar, which resulted in higher import costs.

However, the group, which is expected to announce its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results before August ends, will be recognising a net gain from the disposal of its 3.3-acre (1.33ha) land in Kota Damansara, which will offset all previous quarterly earnings decline this year, said Kee Choong.

Signature has already paid a special dividend of 10 sen per share after it received RM79.95 million as compensation from the Selangor government for the compulsory acquisition of the land in mid-May, to make way for the Damansara-Shah Alam Elevated Expressway (DASH).

“This is like a consolation prize for shareholders,” said Kee Choong, adding the rest of the proceeds will be used for working capital and capital expenditure.

As at Aug 1, Signature was in a net cash position of RM65 million. A big chunk of it comes from the compensation sum, which translates into a net cash of 27.55 sen per share. Signature’s stock closed one sen or 1.02% lower at 97 sen last Friday, valuing the company at RM233.1 million.

As it searches for more orders, Signature hopes to expand its overseas reach. It is now preparing to bid for provision of kitchen cabinet systems for phase 3A of the Battersea Power Station project in London, which comprises over 500 residential units that are scheduled for completion in 2019. The deal is estimated to be worth about RM50 million.

The Battersea Power Station project is a 42-acre former industrial site that is being redeveloped over seven phases into a mixed development comprising homes, shops, offices, a public park and a new tube station. It is owned by S P Setia Bhd, Sime Darby Bhd and the Employees Provident Fund.

“We have to prepare all necessary documentations and go through the pre-qualification stage first. It’s progressing well so far,” said Kee Choong.

Details of the contract are still scarce, said Kee Choong, as Battersea’s main contractor, French-based Bouygues Construction, has yet to officially open the tender. “We have talked to our distributors in Europe and engaged an installer firm to work with us. We are well-prepared if we clinch the contract,” he added.

TA Securities Holding Bhd senior manager Tan Kam Meng is positive on Signature’s chance of winning the project, due to the project’s Malaysian developers. “Battersea Phase 3 has garnered a commendable take-up rate of 60%. There would not be any delay in kitchen contract award,” he said in an email reply to The Edge Financial Daily.

But Kam Meng noted Signature’s tender price may have to be tweaked upwards. Though Kee Choong hasn’t indicated so, he admitted margin may be squeezed due to Brexit, as developers’ margins slide due to the weakening of the pound.

As for the long-awaited kitchen cabinet system contract from Country Garden’s Danga Bay development, Kee Choong said the developer has yet to finalise its decision, “but we know our chance is slim”. It is learnt that the Chinese developer may be collaborating with its sister company instead.

On dividends, though Signature has no fixed policy at this juncture, Kee Choong, the largest shareholder with a direct stake of 25.26% as at May 5, said Signature has been paying 30% of its profit after tax as dividend and plans to keep to the payout quantum.

Meanwhile, TA Securities estimates Signature’s order book replenishment to be RM205 million to RM258 million in FY17 to FY19 — higher than FY16’s estimated RM108 million — given the slew of housing supply in Malaysia in the next few years, typically in the upmarket segment. This will fuel FY17 to FY19’s earnings growth, said Kam Meng, who has a “buy” call on Signature’s stock, with a target price of RM1.62, as at July 11.

Saturday, August 27, 2016

【1Q17 OLDTOWN业绩分析报告】符合预期,但内藏巨大惊喜!!!

【1Q17 OLDTOWN业绩分析报告】符合预期,但内藏巨大惊喜!!!
Author: twot | Publish date: Sat, 27 Aug 2016, 12:31 AM

OLDTOWN在昨日8月25日发布了最新的业绩,净利按年增长 46%!

13.882m的净利是OLDTOWN上市以来的第二新高!

现在全年EPS报12.55仙,PE=14.18,手握1.75亿现金,Net Cash Company!

。。。。

Oh Please… twot的文章怎么可能像 某位每天出来刷屏的 Blogger,

写这种 初学者 水平的投资者 都会看得懂的东西来 刷存在感呢?


言归正传,我要说我在最新OLDTOWN业绩所发现的两大惊喜“亮点”:

第一,证明了上一季MB的Profit是可以maintain的!

Manufacturing of Beverages(MB)是3in1速溶咖啡,

也就是Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) 的部门。

这两个月我一直向蛮多人推荐OLDTOWN,有些还是真正有研究股票的人,

但很多人的的第一反应就是:

“OLDTOWN的食物那么难吃,他们的股票可以买meh?”

关于OLDTOWN食物品质的问题,大家“心照”啦。

但是,很多人没有意识到到底OLDTOWN最近发生了什么质的改变?

我觉得这点非常好,证明OLDTOWN还有很大的升幅空间~

(同样的一句话,我也在之前写Airasia的文章里说过哦!)



从最新的业绩报告显示,这个季度MB的profit是15.5m。

我搬出了OLDTOWN从上市以来的数据,从往年上来看,这一季应该是淡季,



但是!但是!但是!Revenue不跌反升!只是Profit降了一点。

考虑到可能是原物料价格上升,或因为是促销攻占市场导致了profit margin的下降。

上一季,当MB拿出16.8m的profit的时候,震惊了很所有投资者!

很多人好奇是什么原因造成了这次净利的暴涨?

因为从过往的数据来看,这是突然间在一个季度暴涨上来的。

我把它归功于OLDTOWN开始在中国网购网站上卖他们的速溶咖啡,

还有收购了香港的一家distributor的公司ACL(能够提高效率,降低成本)。

但是,很多人包括我在内,也在忧虑说这个profit到底能不能maintain呢?

这次最新的业绩完全解除了我们对这方面的忧虑。Well Done, Oldtown!

所以,第一个惊喜:

MB的Profit是可以maintain的,而且在淡季的revenue和profit竟然比得上旺季!

这本身就已经算是成长了,到了旺季应该会更不得了~



补充一点:



这是OLDTOWN在天猫上的官方旗舰店,

没记错的话,我在大约2个月前看到的总销量也不过2-3千包,现在很多已经破2万了!

而且,不只是OLDTOWN官方在卖,其他网商也有卖,有些销量也是破万的!

那么,我们就来看顾客的评价反馈:



要知道,咱们华人,尤其是我们理解中的中国人,我们总是有一种性格就是

要我们称赞别人很难;但遇到不好的东西,总是会不遗余力地批评。

这是流淌在我们血脉里的“优良”美德,我们总是会去要求“精益求精”!

但可以明显地看到,顾客对OLDTOWN的评价,正面和负面反馈的比率,几乎是1000:26!

证明了OLDTOWN的白咖啡是有多么的出色,才会得到如此好的回馈反应!

我非常喜欢去天猫上看顾客对OLDTOWN的评价,真的非常有趣~

(也增添了我对OLDTOWN的信心!)

此外。不只是中国,在国外的其他国家,“OLDTOWN”也成了“白咖啡”的代名词!

所以,这也就是为什么OLDTOWN最近又回到投资者,尤其是基金的注意的原因!

如果,你对OLDTOWN未来前景的巨大潜能还没有什么概念的话,我再给你几个关键字去思考:

中国市场 . 13亿人口 . 网购 . 高速成长 . 高利润 . 低成本 . 土豪 . 逼格



在我说第二个惊喜之前,如果想要更了解OLDTOWN,或者要知道

OLDTOWN两大部门:Café Chain和Manufacturing of Beverages是什么?

可以先去看我在6月4日写关于OLDTOWN的文章:

《【OLDTOWN】可口可乐与白咖啡的故事》

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/iamtyz/97845.jsp



第二,这个季度的Profit其实并不低!

老实说,当我第一眼看到13.8m的Net profit的时候,是蛮失望的。。。

第一件事情是去看MB的profit,因为我迫切想知道上个季度的profit到底能不能maintain。

我发现到MB没有问题后,才去找profit不符合我预期的原因,发现原来是Tax Expense搞得怪!

(我个人net profit的预期是15m,我也在业绩出前在我的FB page上说了)



细心的朋友可以看到这个季度的PBT其实是不输给上个季度的。

但是!但是!但是!Tax Expenses却增加很多!

接近3.5m,加回去13.8m这个季度的net profit,

不就是17.3m,超越了我预期的15m,真的是人算不如天算啊。。。

Tax Expenses增加的原因是因为Income tax和deferred tax的增加。



我很好奇的是为什么Revenue和PBT减少了,Income Tax却反而增加了呢?

不过总的来说,就算是这个季度Tax Expenses莫名其妙地增加了蛮多,

13.8m的Net Profit依然是OLDTOWN上市以来的历史第二高!

这点是非常值得肯定的,投资者必须重新正视这只刚从底部回升的好股!



说完OLDTOWN的好,我不否认我对OLDTOWN有一些小小的质疑:

第一, OLDTOWN重新进军中国市场。

宣布当天14/7,股价不升反跌,是不是说明了投资者并不看好?

这次的重新进军,又会采取什么不一样的策略呢?

就像我在第一篇文章说的,OLDTOWN应该效仿Paparich在国外的作风,

主打马来西亚美食,而且OLDTOWN有一样Paparich没有的优势,就是他们的白咖啡!

也可以参考Apple的策略,把自己定位为比较高级的餐厅,精致地摆卖他们的白咖啡。

我们都知道很多中国人总是喜欢凸显自己的心理,让别人觉得他们的品(bi)味(ge)特别高嘛!

OLDTOWN把自己定位高级一点,不止可以增加生意量,还可以建立自己的品牌!



2. 马来西亚的业务也越来越差,未来有什么办法改进?




我看到OLDTOWN在Prospects里写改进Malaysia业务的计划promote “low cost model”,

我觉得这点很好,但首先品质要拉上来。

有一点我觉得很可笑的是,OLDTOWN要打入儿童与家庭的市场,

希望借此增加顾客回头率。

OLDTOWN不是,也永远成不了McDonalds,

不觉得如果有小孩子吵着父母要去OLDTOWN会很奇怪吗?

根据我这两个月的观察,OLDTOWN的地点都开得不错,人流很多,

餐厅里顾客也很多,但大多数都是上班族,

我觉得这才是OLDTOWN需要关注的顾客群!

在早中晚餐推出实惠的配套,然后比较冷淡的时间段里,

也可以营造那种适合让工作人士去跟顾客见面谈生意的环境,

毕竟café或Starbucks太贵了!



以上就是我在OLDTOWN发现的两大惊喜和两个小小的质疑。

关于质疑方面,不是什么大问题,只是我个人的吹毛求疵。。。

说实在,Café Chain的业务并没有很差,考虑到市场竞争如此激烈,

Café Chain的业务也只能算是成长停滞,或缓慢下跌。

在OLDTOWN的另一台业务引擎MB快速的成长下,足以带动公司的未来发展!

当然,如果未来两大引擎可以同时发动,那就太好不过了~

我相信以管理层的雄心、雄厚的基本面、不错的产品,OLDTOWN是完全办得到的!



OLDTOWN的业绩算是符合市场的预期!

(虽然略低于我个人的预期)

但是最近,很多公司公布不错的业绩后,股价不升反跌。

再加上最近也传闻某基金被SC调查,

导致很多股票包括OLDTOWN的下跌,搞到人心惶惶。。。

不排除回调也会发生在OLDTOWN身上。

但是我的策略就是越低越买!低过1.70就直接All-In啦!

这就是我对OLDTOWN的自信!

(这篇文章写于星期四晚上,从今天星期五上看,应该是没有机会回调了~)



总结:

我写这篇文章主要的目的,是想让大家知道到底OLDTOWN最近发生了什么事。

像这种底部回升、业务重新增长、收现金、净现金、高股息的股票,

你我又怎么能够错过呢?

就算我无法说服你,难道这么好的股票不值得放在watchlist里去观察和研究吗?





任何买卖后果自负。谢谢!

How the pay squeeze made your pricey university degree (kind of) worthless

How the pay squeeze made your pricey university degree (kind of) worthless
BY SYED JAYMAL ZAHIID AND YISWAREE PALANSAMY
Thursday August 25, 2016
06:56 AM GMT+8



Part-time Uber driver John Zachariah has a degree in IT engineering and never thought he would have to work two jobs. ― Picture by Choo Choy MayKUALA LUMPUR, Aug 25 ― Despite his Bachelor’s degree in IT engineering, John Zachariah works two jobs and six days a week: he is a telecommunications engineer by day and an Uber driver by night.

He believes his qualification does not necessarily guarantee him an adequate income, so he works two jobs and long hours in order to own a car and service the loan, something previous generation degree holders could have done with just one job as recent as 10 years ago.

After four years into his job, John makes roughly RM4,000 a month. He said his salary increased gradually through the years, but is still far from enough to pay for the monthly installments of a car he took over from his sister, who has since left Malaysia for Singapore. For a better-paying job.

“I didn't think I would have to work two jobs. Honestly, then (studying) I thought I could earn enough (with my qualification),” John told Malay Mail Online, adding that the sharp rise in cost of living in the city forced him to confront the harsh reality that his full-time earnings alone was not enough to pay the bills.

For the well-groomed and articulate 26-year-old, ride-sharing services company Uber is heaven-sent. Its flexible hours give people like John the time to clock in after working hours.

He says he drives around three to four hours a day, which adds up to about 14 hours of work daily. He also works the weekends, which earns him around RM500 a month… just enough to pay for his car.

But John isn't complaining. To him, and many other graduates around his age, what they earn is based on market rate, although he wasn't aware that the rate has been relatively stagnant for the past 15 years.

Being a degree holder today may not hold as much value as it did as recent as 15 years ago. Worst, degrees often acquired at a hefty cost thanks to skyrocketing education fees are no longer the magic ticket to a sustainable income, nevermind a lucrative one.

One of the primary factors contributing to the devaluation of degrees today is wage stagnation. Millennial degree holders today are still being paid around the same starting salary as their older counterparts 10 years ago.


The city of Kuala Lumpur is an expensive place to live in... and many graduates find that their degrees no longer guarantee them high-paying jobs. ― File pic 

Adjusted to inflation, which has more than tripled in the past decade, today's pay for degree holders in terms of value is equivalent to the earnings of lesser-skilled workers 10 years ago.

“Ten years ago, a starting salary for a fresh graduate was about RM1,800. Now it's about RM2,000 to RM2,200. So the increase is really slow compared to the inflation rate,” Sharon Soon, director of Savant Search Malaysia, a headhunting firm employed by corporations like the Berjaya Group and multinational Emerson Electric, told Malay Mail Online.

Cost vs earnings

For educated millennials, often stereotyped as the “bratty” and “unrealistic” generation, working two jobs has become quite the norm in the country's industrialised states like Penang and Selangor where cost of living is definitely higher than say, in smaller towns.

And Uber, and its competitor Grab, have become a popular second job option for educated millennials looking to supplement their low full-time earnings. And the numbers are growing by the day, Soon said.

“It's hard for them to sustain and a lot of them are actually getting financial aid from their parents… without parents it can be quite difficult. A lot of my candidates are doing Uber and with Uber you can make quite a bit if you're hardworking.”

But working two jobs can be taxing in the long run. And millennials are beginning to ask if investing so much in their education, which can go up to half a million ringgit for an overseas degree, is worth it since most end up having to work low-paying jobs, and drive Uber on the side just so they can pay their mortgages or car loans.

“Realistically, I don't think I can earn enough to buy a house in 10 years with my pay… and with the situation in the market, I don't think our salaries are going to get any better,” Gerald Wan Tom, 28, who works in a hotel staff and has a degree in hospitality, told Malay Mail Online.

Gerald earns RM4,500 a month after five years into his job. Half of his salary goes to rent (RM1,000 for an apartment in Damansara Perdana) and servicing his car loan (RM700), which leaves him with only around RM2,000 to spend.

Driving Uber is a godsend to many millennials who find their day jobs don't pay enough these days. ― File pic

Buying a house, a dream he calls it, is out of the question with what he makes so he drives for Uber daily after work and the weekend too. That's seven days of work a week around the clock.

“My total education cost was about RM35,000. With expenses I think it went up to RM40,000… when I was studying of course, I expected to make enough with my qualification,” said Gerald, who graduated from Taylor’s College, one of the many private colleges here.

In Malaysia, most parents believe a degree, especially those acquired from Western countries, would give their children the edge in an increasingly competitive labour market.

This is understandable since colleges spend heftily to market their services to parents as insurance for their children's future, which explains why some parents go to great lengths, and sometimes even beyond their means, to secure their children university degrees.

Jason Chi, 31, is one such example. His parents spent RM500,000 to send him to Switzerland to study hospitality. But like Gerald and John, he too drives for Uber after his working hours as a manager in a factory in Ipoh, where the cost of living is still relatively low compared to that in Kuala Lumpur or Johor Baru.

“I do it out of necessity. It helps me pay for the car (a Perodua MyVi) and give me some extra cash to spend. With the qualification I got of course I didn't expect to fall under the category of urban poor. I mean I live above the poverty line but that doesn't mean I'm doing well. I'm struggling to even have a medium (income) life,” Chi told Malay Mail Online.

Global problem

Wage depression among millennials is not unique to Malaysia. In developed countries like the United States, today’s 30-year-olds make about as much as a 30-year-old would have in 1984, and a dollar less than a 30-year-old in 2004, a study by the Centre for American Progress showed. And this is despite the fact that most millennials there, just like their counterparts in Malaysia, have degrees.


Cost of living continues to rise, and when you live in the city working two jobs to make ends meet is not unusual. ― File pic

Bank Negara Malaysia in its 2015 income report showed that for the bottom 20 per cent of urban poor ― defined as households earning RM2,000 and below ― daily expenditure outpaces their income growth.

A straw poll conducted by Malay Mail Online found that the majority of millennials with degrees interviewed earn around RM3,000, just RM1,000 above BNM's unofficial definition of urban poor. Malaysia has yet to develop a standardised gauge to define urban poor.

For a top Malaysian student like Priya (a pseudonym), who graduated with a degree in information technology with a near-perfect CGPA of 3.8, the problem of wage stagnation coupled with rapidly shrinking buying power caused by a weak ringgit means a RM5,000 monthly salary ― once considered a high pay ― is no longer enough.

As an additional income, she has turned her passion of cake decorating into a part-time job.

A good month means she can make RM2,000, a decent amount, and RM1,000 on a bad month. But all that has changed since Malaysia's economy tumbled.

“The economic downturn started last year and since then I don't get many orders. Even if I do get, it’s just simple orders,” Priya told Malay Mail Online.

Priya also said she has plans to buy a house, but only if she can afford it.

With Malaysian house prices close to doubled in the past 10 years, according to BNM data, most millennials have resigned to the fact that they may have to rent for life.

In a special report on wage stagnation published by Malay Mail Online recently, official data indicates that wages in Malaysia have grown at a 90 per cent slower rate than productivity. For major states like Kuala Lumpur and Penang, wage growth the past two years is in the negative when adjusted to inflation.

Soo said businesses have now exploited the slowdown to keep starting salaries for degree holders low since hiring opportunities have lessened: “Now the rate is RM2,200. Before it was RM2,500 but they have lowered it because they know graduates have no choice but to take it.”

Critics have long called for the government to address the wage problem. Some say Malaysia needs to invest more in education and human capital to move away from a commodity and export oriented economy, to an innovative driven one. But an immediate solution would be to help keep costs low for urban dwellers, a view shared by many millennials.

* Editor's note: Sharon Soon’s name was wrongly spelt in the earlier version of this story, which has sinced been corrected. Malay Mail Online apologises for the error.

- See more at: http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/how-the-pay-squeeze-made-your-pricey-university-degree-kind-of-worthless#sthash.mCgC6LEn.dpuf

理财 | 毕业证书值多少钱?

理财 | 毕业证书值多少钱?
Angel Poi Woon 1 day ago 经济, 理财

以前大学毕业证书是找到好工作及拥有好工资的保证。

今时今日随便拿一个石头丢,你都会丢到一个大学生,或一个来自外地的工作者(简称外劳)。

今天要分享的文章 :How the pay squeeze made your pricey university degree (kind of) worthless 中的主人翁身兼二职,工作6天,是一名拥有大学毕业证书的电讯工程师,也是一名Uber司机。

他在正职工作了4年,工资增长至RM4K,在付了房屋租金,汽车贷款,以及生活费后就所剩无几,更别说存头期来买梦想中的房屋。

而他从没想过大学毕业出来后,必须身兼二职才足够应付生活。

大学费用跟着通膨涨价,可是工资在严峻竞争下却没有起薪。

尤其是父母还有一种迷思,以为外国大学毕业出来就一定能有份高薪。然而以下段落证明了,单单是毕业证书并不值钱,你必须要在大众毕业生中脱颖而出,拥有别人没有的竞争能力及技能,才能从4K往更高的工资发展。

His parents spent RM500,000 to send him to Switzerland to study hospitality. But like Gerald and John, he too drives for Uber after his working hours as a manager in a factory in Ipoh, where the cost of living is still relatively low compared to that in Kuala Lumpur or Johor Baru.

再来就是大环境。政府喊了要成为高收入国家那么多年,成绩怎样,大家有目共睹,目前俨然成了低收入高消费的国家。。

而我们如何自保?如文章中的主人翁,积极找主动收入,但同时间也学习为自己打造被动收入的管道,才是保住+壮大财富的明智之举呀。

For the love of learning

Saturday, 27 August 2016
For the love of learning
BY LIN SEE-YAN




Personal reflections on tradition, life, Confucius, sanctification and service

LAST weekend, I spoke to this year’s crop of Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman graduates (pic) whose life and career expectations are changing, reflecting variable interests, volatile circumstances and evolving personal values.

Millennials feel responsible for their lives as they search for diverse experiences. That can mean frequent career changes and a willingness even to take pay cuts.The Journal of Positive Psychology’s study shows that emerging adults who are able to focus on life’s purpose were strongly associated with greater life satisfaction than failing to do so. Here are my prepared remarks.

I should confess that assemblies like this one used to intimidate. Not anymore. For 10 years, I was pro-chancellor of Universiti Sains Malaysia. Today, I am pro-chancellor of Sunway University as well as at Universiti Teknologi Malaysia. I am also chairman emeritus, Graduate School Alumni Association Council at Harvard University. I have four children – together they attended 10 of the top universities world-wide. So, I have been around among the best – as an anxious parent, as an expectant graduand and as a nervous speaker. Even so, when Tun Dr Ling Liong Sik asked me to speak, I was delighted of course; but a little unsettled. I am expected to inspire and uplift. But that’s easier said than done. Of course, I am well aware that, rather often, such addresses are met with blank stares and tepid applause. What am I to do? Needless to say, I am honoured to be asked to speak at this convocation. So, to make things simple, I will just tell three stories from my life.

Tradition

The first story seeks to answer the often asked question: who helped you to be where you are today. I received my first degree at the early age of 20, in economics, philosophy and statistics. Not a popular selection even today. My first job was as an economist at Bank Negara, where I remained for the next 34 years, with bouts of pioneering work at the Prime Minister’s Economic Planning Unit and the Finance Ministry; as well as tough learning at the International Monetary Fund, the Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of India. At 29, I took leave to pursue graduate studies at Harvard University – at its world famous Kennedy School of Government; later its world-class Business School and then, the ever prestigious Economics Department, graduating eventually with three graduate degrees, including a PhD in Economics. I turned professional early – becoming a UK Chartered Statistician, an Asian Chartered Banker and a British Chartered Scientist. All these would not have been possible without a vast, invisible infrastructure of parents, teachers, colleagues, bosses, friends, spouse and mentors. Experience tells me that people who think their success is attributable only to their own drive and talent, usually wreak havoc in organisations. Sooner or later, to have impact, to build trust, and for everybody to want to work with you; you will need luck and you will need help. Lots of it. Successful people invest time and attention in anyone from whom they can learn. I was fortunate to have a great mentor early – Tun Ismail Ali, the longest serving Bank Negara governor for 18 years.

Ismail, handpicked by Tun Razak, studied law, economics and politics at Cambridge. I was lucky to have been taken under his wings. My job at Bank Negara involved identifying and examining core problems in public policy; and resolving them in a highly complicated, competitive and complex environment. To succeed, I needed to collaborate because it is impossible to know enough alone. Once you realise that you are doing challenging work that matters, sooner or later, you are going to become perplexed, confused – even lost. And it is going to be the support and contributions from others that will pull you through. Ismail had the genius to direct and lead with a firm hand – able to focus on what’s core, and dislodge assumptions or retrieves insights I was probably too panic-stricken to recall.

Without such leadership and guidance, you can forget your breakthrough! Psychologists say gratitude to those who help, is good for you. Yes, I believe that being “indebted” to others can be more eloquent than any CV. In Ismail, I learnt – and have since not forgotten (and will not ever forget) – that a leader has the responsibility to build lasting traditions – i.e. instil virtues and set standards that will last many lifetimes. For Ismail, his job was (quote) “to build a tradition of absolute integrity; a tradition of competency; a tradition of efficiency, even to the point of ruthlessness; a tradition of continual and dependable expertise; and above all, a tradition of being able readily to recognise and accept absolutely, the dictates of the national interest” We don’t make people like Ismail anymore. But the traditions he built, and the example he set, will live-on and inspire. I was inspired. And they made me a better person. The same can happen to you. Yes, my young friends, these timeless traditions are also meant for you. They are your building blocks. And, if I may say so, people who hold public office should embrace and stay true to honour, such time-tested traditions.

Live your life

My second story touches on pain, or in essence: we just don’t know when to quit. After devoting a lifetime managing central banking policy, I spent the next four years proving that I can just as well, successfully build and run a large commercial banking group – which I did. But let me say this – managing a fast growing financial institution is less fun than running a well-functioning central bank. Take it from me. I know. So, in time, the commercial bank was built-up with enough value added-on, to be sold; and I moved-on to consulting – to being a corporate consultant, specialising on strategy and finance. A different business from what I am used to. I was excited and the business was good. However, in September 2009, I was diagnosed with a bad case of degenerative lumber kypho-scoliosis, causing severe multilevel spinal stenosis. Simply put, I suffered severe back pain that was “killing” me. The excruciating pain left me with no choice, in the end, to quit fighting and undergo surgery.

My doctors tell me that because of constant wear and tear over many years, not to mention prolonged youthful excesses, my lower back bones had degenerated badly enough to cause persistent, severe spinal pain and great discomfort. It’s a big deal – a seven-hour operation. Simply put, the surgeon has to decompress – enlarge the vertebrae space to remove undue pressure on the nerves; repair, rebuild and fuse, and re-fuse with instrumentation, in order to stabilise the specially sensitive part of the spine. Titanium nuts and bolts and plates were implanted to put my vertebrae together again. It involved seamless teamwork, intricate “carpentry”, meticulous surgery, and sensitive dexterity in managing the patient to avoid, in the worst case, paralysis. Lucky for me, the operation was a success. But unfortunately, I suffered a bad fall six-months later and at 72 years old, was back once again on the surgeon’s table.

This time, two new screws were added. Simply put, they had to fuse together this time, five lower lumbar vertebrae. The outcome: I now have 10 screws in my lower back, held together by two slim eight-inch titanium rods. It took up to eight-hours of meticulous surgery; yes, you may say “I am screwed”! So, I now have sort-of-a “bionic” lower spine. It does sound awesome. But I am fine – able to walk and sleep without pain.

Here’s the rub. Confronted with unbearable pain and the prospect of possible death under the knife or survival as an invalid – that was the closest I’ve ever been to really giving-it-all-up; even facing death. For years, I just wouldn’t quit. I fought hard and long for 40 years to avoid surgery. In the end, it was the conversation I had with Apple’s Steve Jobs at Stanford years earlier in 2005, after he had survived from pancreatic cancer. As Jobs told it, when death stares you in the eye: “Death is Life’s change agent. It clears out the old, and make way for the new. So don’t waste it, living someone else’s life.” That was his message: Don’t ever live someone else’s life. This is also my message to you: Don’t live someone else’s life. And, that’s exactly what I did in the past five years – against what Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman calls “loss aversion,” a phenomenon which leads one to cling-on, pigheadedly, to bad decisions – yes, it’s a psychotic streak, simply because we hate to stop “playing” when we are behind. People hate to quit, when they feel they’re losing. You cling on. Indeed, it takes an awkward incident like the one I had, to know when to quit fighting the pain – when it’s time to let science and modern technology take over. Yes, to finally set aside the old ways, and live life as it should be lived.

Somehow, you will instinctively know where you want to go. So, go for it: stir-up the courage and change when you must. Follow what your gut tells you. Your time on this earth is limited. Yes, quit your old ways; and just do what you really want to do. Period.

Confucian legacy

My last story has to do with my father’s Confucian legacy – he connected the dots for me. He was a quiet scholar in Chinese classics and a painter and calligraphist; educated at the University of Tokyo during the Great Depression years. Life was real tough for him, coming from poor, rural China. He educated himself well, in both Chinese and Japanese; and then migrated to the then, Malaya. Set up his own school and taught the immigrant Chinese community. In his spare time, he painted and practised calligraphy to uplift his spirits. He raised 11 children in Ipoh and imparted to them, the high virtue of a first-class education. Being poor didn’t stop him.

He set his priorities right – all 11 of us became professionals. The family now has six medical doctors and 14 grandchildren are doctors; 20 doctors in two generations and still counting, not including a PhD in economics.

True to Confucius tradition, my father felt an obligation to “sacrifice” one of his 11 children to serve the public interest as its servant – and I was selected as the sacrificial lamb to assume the public face of the “mandarin,” a là Confucius. He encouraged me to study economics and public administration at Harvard. And I picked up business studies from across the Charles River. Unfortunately, he died while I was sitting for exams at Harvard. But he left me a legacy in the form of a quotation from “kung-fu-tze”, which roughly translated reads: Let the Six Virtues and their attendant Faults guide your life: First, there is kindness, but that alone without love of learning, degenerates into silliness. Second, there is knowledge, but that alone without love of learning, tends to amateurism. Third, there is honesty, but that alone without love of learning, produces heartlessness. Fourth, there is uprightness, but that alone without love of learning, leads to tyranny. Fifth, there is boldness, but that alone without love of learning, produces recklessness. Sixth, there is strength of character, but that alone without love of learning, produces wildness. There you are, six worthwhile virtues to live by. If he were alive today, my father would be justifiably proud that I kept his promise. I strived to be virtuous in serving the public interest. At 77 today, I still do. Indeed, very likely, I am the only living senior public servant who has directly served every Prime Minister, and every Minister of Finance, since Merdeka ‘57.

What then, are we to do

My father knew the world was changing – and changing fast. He also sensed that the “young” needed to articulate a life-purpose, in order to bring about greater life-satisfaction. Just like millennials today, it is not enough to just “find a fun job” – a purposelessness closely tied to worldly prosperity, alarmingly devoid of true satisfaction. Or, what the existentialist French philosopher Jean-Paul Sarte evocatively termed, the “nausea of existence.” My father’s message to me was simple: for heaven’s sake (I can still hear him say), use that love of learning to avoid this sensation of purposeless living. Indeed, in today’s uncertain world, it will be hard to find a better life-purpose, than what the great composer Johann Sebastian Bach called: “sanctification and service” – yes, to do good and to serve. My father wished that for me. And now, as you all graduate to begin anew, I wish the same for you: to do good and to work for the public good.

To all you new graduands, let me welcome you to the community of educated men and women. I wish you Godspeed on your journey thro’ life. May it prove for each and every one of you, a joyous adventure.

Former banker, Harvard educated economist and British Chartered Scientist, Dr Lin is the author of “The Global Economy in Turbulent Times” (Wiley, 2015). Feedback is most welcome; email: starbiz@thestar.com.my.

Friday, August 26, 2016

[转贴] 【美景如画】- MKH(6114)盈利YOY进步81%,CPO棕油价格利好 + PE = 6.67! - Harryt30

[转贴] 【美景如画】- MKH(6114)盈利YOY进步81%,CPO棕油价格利好 + PE = 6.67! - Harryt30
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Fri, 26 Aug 2016, 09:56 AM

Thursday, August 25, 2016

MKH(6114)在8月25日公布了最新的业绩,Net Profit按年比较进步了81%。现在全年的EPS = 42.69仙,PE=6.67, 这也是它历史新高的全年盈利。过往的MKH派息政策平均都有30%以上,所以不排除公司在FY2016会派发10仙或者更多的股息。而且Q4一向以来是 MKH最强的季度,所以不排除下个季度的业绩会继续把MKH的盈利推向历史新高。

以上是MKH的一些数据给大家参考。


MKH这个季度的Profit Margin比上个季度低了不少,其中一个原因是因为Income Tax的问题以及种植盈利减少。待会笔者会一一跟大家分析。
我们先来看看MKH的资产债务表,公司这个季度有4.9 mil的外汇盈利。主要是因为印尼盾兑换美金走强,MKH全年的unrealized forex gain有RM31.9 mil.
公司手上握有287.289 mil的现金,大笔现金可以让他们在经济低迷的时候适时出手买进廉价的地皮。
此外,公司的总债务在连续走高6个季度后手持出现减少,这个季度MKH的borrowing减低了14 mil。公司盈利持续进步,相信未来借贷也会慢慢减低。
此外,MKH的NTA进步到2.92, 今天的闭市价格 = 2.89,意味着NTA > 股价。
而Debt to equity ratio也从0.68下跌到0.65,希望MKH可以早日改善到0.50以下的水平。

上图我们可以看到MKH在FY2016的3个季度就突破历史新高盈利,11月公布的 业绩相信可以把MKH的盈利推到更高峰。虽然有31.9 mil来自外汇,但是大家154 mil - 32 mil = 122 mil,扣除了外汇盈利之后的MKH还是在3个季度就突破盈利新高。

上图是MKH过往11个季度的产业营业额以及税前盈利,通常Q4的营业都会是最高的。而过往两年Q2的盈利都比Q3高,因此在在800.06 mil的Unbilled sales的加持下,预计下个季度Q4的产业盈利会不俗。

上图是CPO的价格,资料来自大马的MPOB,而昨天CPO的价格更是突破了两年新高的RM2,845, 所以大家可以发现很多种植股的股价都在跑动。

以上是CPO的月份平均价格,8月份还有4天交易日。只要CPO保持在RM2,800的水平,8月的CPO价格可能会是今年最高的。



种植的Operating profit在这个季度是20.494 mil,比上个季度的25.425 mil低了大约5 mil。

因为今年Q3卖出的CPO棕油比全年同期少了接近12,800 MT, 主要是因为公司要把CPO存起来等待好价的时候卖出。不过报告里说到去年10月-6月的CPO价格比今年同期高,这让笔者感到很惊讶。毕竟今年4-6月的 CPO价格平均都接近RM2,600, 现在只能希望Q4的种植盈利会更好。

而Q3的其中3,750 MT也会延期到Q4 卖出,而且在棕油价格走高下,Q4的种植贡献应该会比Q3出色。

这个季度的盈利走低的另外一个原因是因为高额的Income Tax Expense。上个季度的盈利比Q3高了不少,但是Income tax才18.099 mil,比这个季度的22.557 mil足足低了4.458 mil。原因可以参考上图。


这个季度的盈利比上个季度差的几个原因如下:


上个季度有4.7 mil的gain on bargain purchase on acquisition
较高的Sales commissions
卖出比去年同期少的CPO, 准备在下个季度价格较高的时候卖出。
这个季度的Income tax expense比上个季度高多了4.5 mil

管理层对下个季度的展望:

公司预计今年年底会达成更好的盈利,因为大部分卖出的产业将会陆续进账。
印尼油棕的树龄将会步入平均7岁的成熟期,产量将会增加以提高营业额。
此外,预计未来的CPO以及Palm kernel price会走高,借此可以提高Plantation的net profit。

虽然这个季度的盈利是FY2016 , 3个季度里最差的,但是Q4的盈利相信会比Q3好。因此MKH现在6.77 PE在产业同行里算是很低的,而且它还有种植业务加成,相信它还有更多的潜质等着投资者们去挖掘。



Harryt30
22.50p.m.
2016.08.25

http://harryteo.blogspot.my/2016/08/1335-mkh6114yoy81cpo-pe-667.html

[转贴] 【通源展翅】- TGUAN(7034)盈利YOY上涨105%,手握99.866 mil净现金,派发6仙【惊喜】股息! - Harryt30

[转贴] 【通源展翅】- TGUAN(7034)盈利YOY上涨105%,手握99.866 mil净现金,派发6仙【惊喜】股息! - Harryt30
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Fri, 26 Aug 2016, 09:59 AM

Thursday, August 25, 2016

TGUAN(7034)交出了非常出色的业绩,营业额以及盈利YOY分别进步了105%。而现在全年的EPS = 51.65仙也是历史新高,PE = 8.58, ROE = 13.28。而且新买进的机器会在下半年贡献更多的盈利,前景可说是非常亮眼。

最让让股东们欣慰的就是TGUAN给了股东们一个大惊喜,笔者曾经在股东大会反映周息 率逊色于往年。结果管理层真的聆听了股东们的心声,在3个月后的今天派发了6仙的Interim Dividend,预计在9月28日除权。而TGUAN在FY2015的Final Dividend才在7月29日除权,笔者这个月才收到9仙的股息。这也意味着2016年1月买进至今的投资者可以获得15仙的股息,相当于4.7%左右 的周息率。



公司最新季度的营业额以及Net profit分别比上个季度进步了2.14%以及11.20%。Net Profit Margin也提升到了7.92%的新高。
由于公司是净现金公司,所以终于摆脱了外汇亏损的命运,这个季度迎来了2.149 mil的Forex Gain。
此外, 塑料产品的盈利是历史第2高,而F&B的营业额以及盈利都突破了历史新高。
最夸张的是TGUAN手上的现金增加到137.706 mil以及总债务减少到37.84 mil。所以手上的Net cash搞到99.866 mil,这也给了管理层派发更高股息的底气。
现金流以及资产债务表比上个季度出色,相信公司可以利用这些现金继续发展公司。

可以很明显的看到公司的Profit Margin从去年的5.4%进步到7.6%,而且这是在美金开始走低的情况下做到的。

Plastic and Petroleum Products:

大家可以看到Q2的Gross Profit Margin比上个季度进步了不少,而Q4的PM超过10%是因为当时的美金汇率在顶峰。因此TGUAN注重quality以及value的策略已经开始见到了成果,Profit Margin不停进步就是最好的证明。

此外,公司的CAPITAL EXPENDITURE比去年多了许多,今年两个季就高达19.18 mil。公司花费的资金开发新产品以及引进新机器,相信未来的营业额以及盈利会更加出色。

而F&B的营业额以及盈利算算都来到新高,虽然涨幅不多,但是积少成多,公司未来的目标是要让F&B贡献10%的总盈利。而且Organic Noodle厂相信会在明年贡献更多的盈利,因为COFCO中粮会是他们潜在的客户。

这个季度的盈利上升主要是因为塑料产品销售量增加,而贡献最多的垃圾袋以及食物保鲜膜。此外,美金(今年Q2 = 4.012比去年Q2的 3.66高了9%左右)以及日元走强都是提高Profit Margin的主要推手。

F&B部门的营业持续进步是因为茶叶以及咖啡的需求增加,而且Organic noodle的子公司也开始贡献盈利。

这一次盈利包括了2.021 mil的Disposal gain以及2.149的外汇盈利。而拉伸膜以及工业塑料包装的盈利贡献减低,主要是因为较高的Depreciation,公司花费大笔自己研究新引进的 33 layer nano tech 机器,以及美金走低的影响。

公司对未来两个季度的业绩保持乐观,TGUAN将会引进两条新的PVC Food Wrap line。它们分别会在2016Q4以及2017Q1安装,所以公司预计未来两个季度销售量以及产品研发都会继续增长。可以预计今年的盈利要超越 FY2015不是难题,而且随着公司不断扩充,FY2017要比今年出色也是大有可为。因此TGUAN是一家值得长期持有的Cash Rich成长股。


以上纯属分享,买卖请自负。


Harryt30
19.40p.m.
2016.08.25

http://harryteo.blogspot.my/2016/08/1334-tguan7034yoy10599866-mil6.html

李三宇.本益比不是唯一

李三宇.本益比不是唯一
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Fri, 26 Aug 2016, 10:12 AM
2016-08-25 19:11

说到评估一家公司的价值,市面上有很多不同方法,但最普及的要属本益比(PE ratio)了。

所谓本益比,是把一家公司的股价除以每股盈利,然后把所得倍数当作回本参考指标,藉此评估目前股价是否值得投资。

其算法很简单;A公司股价是1令吉,当年每股盈利是10仙,其本益比则是1.00/0.10=10倍。

10倍本益比的涵义,是假设你在1令吉入股,且未来年度每股盈利都能维持10仙,你的1令吉投资额将在10年内带来100%投资回报。记得,理论上来说而已。

如今,本益比10倍已被许多投资者当作是便宜和昂贵的分界线,许多投资者喜欢把季度盈利乘4再乘10,再把所得答案当作股票合理价。

比方说,A公司在最新季度的每股盈利为5仙,投资者会立即把每股盈利乘4,得出20仙,再乘10,得出2令吉;得出答案后,对比A公司股价,如在1令吉则相当于5倍本益比,意味股价被低估,如股价3令吉则显示已被高估,因相当于15倍本益比。

其实,以这样的方式评估股票价值并没错,但要更完整评估一家公司的价值,却远远不够。

本益比的确是很好用的估值指标,但也有缺点。

缺点一,是本益比计算一般是根据过往数据而不是未来,简单地把单季每股盈利年度化,无非是把单季盈利当成未来三季的表现指标,这种估值法其实只适用于业务和业绩稳定的大公司,业务相对波动的中小型公司则未必合用。

举例说,A公司全年每股盈利是10仙,但第一至第四季每股盈利分别是相对波动的5仙、1仙、3仙和1仙时,投资者用单季盈利计算估值时,就会被漂浮不定的合理价困扰,因每股盈利1仙和5仙所暗示的合理价落差非常大,可能造成投资者错做投资决定。

缺点二,是用于计算本益比的每股盈利是以净利作准,上市公司净利的计算很复杂,需计算营运上的、非营运上的、非经常性的、一次性的、实际上的、账面上的各种项目。

直接以涵盖这些的每股盈利来计算本益比,所得结果往往失准,这就是专业分析员为何总以扣除特别账项的“核心净利”来点评相关公司估值和业绩表现。

要在投资路上做到赢多输少,努力不懈是不二关键,评估一家公司价值时,本益比其实只是其中一种指标,该纳入考量范围的其实还很多,如其他估值指标、业务展望、现金流、财务状况、过往纪录等.都还细细翻查。

甚至单是盈利一种,就分成营运盈利(EBITDA)、税前盈利(EBIT)、净利(NP)等,每一种都有其特有指引作用,慢慢评估思考,就能得到比别人多的收获和体会,提升投资胜机。

投资路永远崎岖,但是,当付出足够努力后,或许你就会发现这条路没有想像中难行。

文章来源:

星洲日报‧焦点评析‧文:李三宇‧2016.08.23

OldTown Berhad - Export Comes to Aid

OldTown Berhad - Export Comes to Aid
Author: kiasutrader | Publish date: Fri, 26 Aug 2016, 11:05 AM

1Q17 core earnings of RM13.9m (+46%) matched our (24%) and market (25%) expectations. No DPS was declared, as expected. No changes made to our earnings forecast. We think that Manufacturing of Beverages (MB) division will continue to drive earnings growth while Operation of Café Chain (CC) might still be a drag to higher earnings growth. As such, we are maintaining our MARKET PERFORM rating on OLDTOWN with unchanged TP of RM1.92.

Within expectations. 1Q17 core net profit of RM13.9m (+46.3% YoY) was within expectations by accounting to 24% of our in-house forecast and 25% of the street’s estimate. No DPS was declared, as expected.

YoY, 3M16 revenue grew 9.4% to RM102.9m driven by solid performance in MB division (+20.6% to RM57.3m) as strong growth in export sales (+72%) more than offset the softness in the local market (- 23%). Meanwhile, sales contribution from CC fell marginally by 2.1% to RM45.5m due to the earlier timing of fasting month in comparison. 3M16 PBT jumped 45.6% to RM19.8m again thanks to the impressive MB division. As a result, net profit surged 46.3% to RM13.9m.

QoQ, 1Q17 revenue was flattish at -1.6% as healthy growth in MB (+7.4%) was more than offset by the seasonal weakness in CC (-10.9%). 1Q17 PBT fell 4.2% to RM19.8m, in line with the drop in revenue. However, the contribution from MB declined by 8.1% to RM15.5m from high base in 4Q15 as marketing expenses normalized. Meanwhile, PBT margin improved by 1.7ppt in 1Q17, suggesting the sales and marketing strategy might have started to bear fruit. However, the higher effective tax rate of 30.7% in 1Q17 as a result of deferred tax dragged net profit down by 35.0% to RM13.9m.

MB the growth anchor. As guided by management, the strong margin in MB did not sustain into 1Q17 but the sales growth was encouraging. Meanwhile, CC division has yet to show strong signs of recovery on the back of weak consumer sentiment, but we are relieved to spot margin expansion as the company has managed to protect its profitability despite negative headwinds. Looking forward, we expect MB to continue to drive growth for the Group on the back of strong recovery in export sales particularly in China as a result of successful sales channel restructuring while the Group is also looking to strengthen its position in other key export market.

Earnings maintained. We made no changes to our earnings forecast.

Maintain MARKET PERFORM with unchanged Target Price of RM1.92. We maintain our TP, based on unchanged 15.1x PER FY17E. The valuation is on par with its 3-year mean which we think is reflective of the mixed outlook between the two operating divisions. Share price has rallied post-4Q16 results and the special dividend declared, but we see limited upside from the current level as we think the weakness in CC division might still be a drag to earnings growth in the near-term barring significant recovery in consumer sentiment.

Source: Kenanga Research - 26 Aug 2016

Padini Holdings Berhad - Victorious with Record Profit

Padini Holdings Berhad - Victorious with Record Profit
Author: kiasutrader | Publish date: Fri, 26 Aug 2016, 11:06 AM

FY16 net profit of RM137.4m (+71.3% YoY) beat our (110%) and market (106%) expectations due to higher-than-expected sales growth. As expected, DPS of 2.5 sen declared for 1Q17 while total DPS in FY16 was 11.5 sen. FY17E earnings upgraded by 6.4% while FY18E introduced (17% net profit growth). Maintain OUTPERFORM with higher Target Price of RM2.96 (from RM2.78). Positive rating is premised on solid earnings growth and undemanding valuation.

Positive surprise for the fifth time in a row. FY16 net profit of RM137.4m (+71.3% YoY) was above expectations by matching 110% of our in-house forecast and 106% of the consensus’. This marked the 5th consecutive quarter of results beating our expectation. The positive deviation can be attributed to higher-than-expected sales growth. As expected, first interim DPS of 2.5 sen was declared for 1Q17 (vs: 1Q16: 2.5 sen). To recap, total DPS declared for FY16 was 11.5 sen (vs FY15: 10sen).

YoY, FY16 revenue jumped 33.1% to RM1.3b driven by the 16 new store openings (10 Brand Outlets and 6 Padini Concept Stores) and sales growth from existing stores. FY16 gross profit growth was slower than revenue growth at 28.5% to RM542.6m due to thinner gross margin of 41.7% (- 1.5ppt from 43.2% in FY15) as the Group retained its selling prices despite rising costs to stay competitive. FY16 PBT rose 66.9% to RM186.7m driven by modest spending in selling and distribution costs (+16.6% vs. +33.1% in revenue). As a result, FY16 net profit catapulted by 71.3% to RM137.4m, further aided by lower effective tax rate of 26.4% (FY15: 28.3%).

QoQ, 4Q16 revenue was flattish (+1.9% to RM348.9m) as compared to 3Q16 as both quarters were boosted by festivities (Hari Raya and Chinese New Year, respectively). Gross margin further narrowed to 40.0% (-1.6ppt from 3Q16) due to reason mentioned above which caused 4Q16 gross profit to decline marginally by 1.9% to RM139.7m. However, lower administrative expenses (-15.7%) more than offset the weaker gross margin with PBT managed to record a growth of 11.4% to RM51.6m. However, 4Q16 net profit only grew 6.3% to RM37.4m due to higher effective tax rate (27.5% vs. 24.1%).

Striving despite headwinds. We are pleasantly surprised by the strong performance, particularly on the solid sales growth achieved on the back of weak consumer sentiment and higher merchandise costs driven by weak local currency. We laud the Group for adopting the right approach in focusing on value-for-money brands as well as maintaining its competitiveness by retaining selling prices. 1Q17 results might soften due to the lack of festivities, but we are convinced with the growth strategy the Group is embarking on and thus believe that the healthy earnings growth can be sustained.

Upgrading earnings forecasts. We lifted FY17E net profit up by 6.4% after assuming higher sales growth and introduce FY18E earnings with implied 17.2% growth.

Maintain OUTPERFORM with higher Target Price of RM2.96 (from RM2.78). Correspondingly, with the earnings upgrade, our TP is raised to RM2.96, based on unchanged 13x PER FY17E, which is on par with +0.5SD over its 5-year mean. Despite the impressive YTD share price runup of 41.5%, our TP still offers upside of 16.7% (including dividend yield) and thus justifying our positive call. The fundamental of the company is solid with healthy forecast earnings growth moving forward supported by new store openings and organic sales growth while the valuation is not demanding at FY17E PER of 11.5x.

Source: Kenanga Research - 26 Aug 2016