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Wednesday, June 22, 2016

Bookies and gamblers expect Brexit to be rejected

Wednesday, 22 June 2016
Bookies and gamblers expect Brexit to be rejected

DUBLIN: Bookies and gamblers are strengthening in their conviction that the UK will opt to remain in the European Union, as polls show a swing away from a so-called Brexit.

Ladbrokes Plc said late on Monday that the odds on a “Remain” vote had shortened to a 2/7 chance, indicating a 74% probability.

Some 95% of all referendum wagers in the previous 24 hours had been placed on voters rejecting Brexit.

“As far as the money’s concerned, it looks like Brexit is beginning to fall at the final hurdle,” Jessica Bridge, a spokeswoman for Ladbrokes, said in an e-mailed statement.

Polls released since the killing of pro-EU campaigner Jo Cox have suggested the “Remain” camp is gaining ground, producing the swing back toward the vote to stay that bookies and gamblers anticipated before her death.

One gambler had wagered £315,000 (US$463,000) on the UK staying in the EU, Betfair said.

“This market continues to mimic the pattern of the Scottish referendum, where historical confidence in the eventual ‘No’ vote slipped slightly ten days before referendum day only to resettle in the week of the vote,” said Naomi Totten of Betfair, which places about a 75% probability on the UK opting to stay inside the EU.

At one point last week, bookies were placing about a 40% chance on the UK voting to exit, and differences in polling results for the respective campaigns show the outcome of Thursday’s vote isn’t yet a foregone conclusion.

A YouGov poll of 1,652 voters for the Times newspaper published late on Monday showed “Leave” at 44% and 42% for “Remain,” while a survey of 800 people by ORB for the Daily Telegraph had “Remain” at 53% and “Leave” at 46% once those unsure of voting were stripped out. – Bloomberg

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