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Friday, October 30, 2015

Karex Bhd - Stronger Quarter Ahead

We came away feeling more optimistic on Karex’s prospects after our recent company visit. We reiterate our BUY recommendation and revise our TP to MYR4.08 (from MYR3.58, 19% upside). In particular, we expect better 1QFY16 results led by increased operating efficiency, improved product mix and a stronger USD.
Stronger 1QFY16 (Jun). We expect 1QFY16 earnings to be 18-21% higher QoQ on the back of better-than-anticipated operating efficiency improvements, favourable product mix and a stronger USD. We believethat the increased operating efficiency was primarily led by Karex’s automation drive and the realisation of greater cost scales. The company also guided for a more favourable product mix resulting in improvedmargins, citing examples of tender orders with preference for less plainvanilla condoms (eg, more coloured condoms). The USD has also appreciated by 10.9% QoQ against the MYR. Recall that Karex retains the prerogative on any forex savings as it does not have any obligation to share the benefits with its clients. We forecast that net margins would improve to 25.2% for the quarter (4QFY15: 22%) and earnings to come in around MYR20m-21m, roughly 12% above consensus estimates.
MLD turnaround. We also understand that the turnaround of recentlyacquired Medical Latex Dua SB (MLD) is likely to be faster than anticipated. While initially guiding to breakeven within 12 months, management is now confident of a turnaround within three months after bringing down costs. This was with the centralisation of raw material purchases and increasing operational utilisation to 70%. At acquisition, MLD had 40% utilization. Karex is also to announce the launch of the ONE condom in Malaysia in December, marking the expansion of its own brand manufacturer (OBM) ambitions in the Asia-Pacific region.
Maintain BUY. We update our FY16-18 USD forex assumptions to 4.27/4.30/4.27 respectively. Coupled with Karex’s latest marginsexperience, we upgrade our FY16-18 earnings forecast by 11-14%. Maintain BUY with a revised MYR4.08 TP (19% upside, CoE: 10%, TG:3%) with an implied 29x FY16F P/E. It is currently trading at 24.4x FY16F P/E, below its 26.4x historical 1SD trading band. W e believe thisis unwarranted given its leadership position in the condom market. The downside risk to our call would be delays in either/both original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and OBM expansions, as well as recovery of the MYR.


[转贴] 【GADANG (9261)】 嘉 许卓越的表现,登 上亮丽的舞台 ! By Zeff Tan


GADANG(嘉登,9261,主版-建筑)的前身是LAISING Holding, 成立于1993年超级大牛市的年代,并在1994年10月挂牌马股secondary board里的建筑版. 直至1997年,丹斯里拿督郭安接管了这家公司,然后将公司易名成为GADANG Holding, 经过了98年的风暴和一些风雨路洗涤后,终于在2007年末晋升主板。


GADANG的业务算是多元化,公司旗下总共有5个分支 – 建筑,机械电子工程,房地产开发,机械电子工程,水务管理,和棕油种植。然而,身为一家建筑起家的公司,主要的业务当然离不开土木工程,所以其建筑臂膀所贡献的营业额占了FY15的76.4%, 并贡献了高达58.3%的税前盈利。其后紧随其后的是房地产开发(营业额占了FY15的20%) ,水务(营业额占了FY15的20%)和微不足道的油棕种植业。


FY15 相比FY14 营业额增长了大约8%, 但是其税后盈利却扩大了整整38%,这说明了gadang的profit margin 进步了许多。


打开季报,发现gadang建筑业务的profit margin从FY14的7.4%成长到了10.9%,这是值得赞赏的,因为普遍上建筑行业的平均margin大约是8%-9%. 比较国内小型建筑同行如MITRA (profit margin:11% ) , PTARAS (profit margin:22% ), HSL(profit margin:11% ) , SYCAL (profit margin:5% ) , BPURI (profit margin: <1 o:p="">
“The overall improved margins were attributable to improved cost management and project implementation controls initiatives that resulted in higher cost efficiencies and productivity achieved.” 在年报里丹斯里是这么说的。
建筑行业相当讲究现金流,一家现金管理稍欠妥当的建筑公司,很容易在“冬瓜豆腐”的降临下而关门大吉,98年的时候很多小型建筑公司和一些房产开发商就是因为周转不灵而大伤元气,有者甚至直接破产。有建筑背景的前辈提过,现金流之所以重要是因为很多小型建筑公司都是做sub-con,很多时候账目需要一段漫长的时间才能从main-con处收回。基于这个原因,建筑公司的现金流必须要强,要不然无法支付工人的工资和偿还供应商债务。



从刚发布的年报里看到,gadang截至目前为止手上握的现金有RM 110m,放进定存的则有RM 122m , 总银行借贷高达RM193m ,所以处于净现金的状态。在云云建筑公司里要找到净现金公司,是少有的。

目前公司大部分的合约都已经呈交了,比如上个月9月30日递交给PETRONAS的RAPID2 ,和在7月呈交于卫生部的HOSPITAL SHAH ALAM,这些合约的酬劳应该都会慢慢在接下来的几个季度里反应出来。 很多人都担心GADANG手上不够合约,截至目前为止,它手上握有RM803m 的合约,丹斯里说这足以让公司忙碌两年,再加上还未颁布的MRT2和LRT3的工程,相信以GADANG的良好合约呈交记录要获得新合约并不难。

房产开发方面公司则有RM189m的未进账营业额(unbilled sales). GADANG房产方面比较诱人的项目莫过于位于柔佛州CAPITAL CITY了。此项目是和一间叫hatten group的公司联营开发,这个计划可以为GADANG在未来的3年里带来大约RM200m的盈利哦! 也就是说在接下来的每一年平均一年可以获得RM60m的profit, 而gadang目前的全年全盈利也刚好达到RM58m而已 ,由此可见FY16 的盈利很有可能会翻一倍 !
丹斯里拿督郭安很注重持续性收入,所以gadang有了水务管理和种植业,但是这两个部门其实也不用多说了,因为贡献不大,水务贡献RM2m全年盈利,但是种植业目前还在亏损中,所幸小数额亏损而已。值得一提的是,水务管理业主要是在印尼经营,今年也收够了一家新的公司60%股权,丹斯里说FY17才会开始做出贡献。

派息方面公司没有固定的派息政策,在FY15共派出了20%的盈利作为股息。
有趣的是gadang开始在2012年派息,从刚开始的2cent 到 3cent, 4cent ,今年给5cent,超漂亮的,以目前的价位(RM1.54)来衡量还有个3.2%的股息算是不错了.
从那几个fundamental 的指标来看,gadang的股价确实有点被低估了,目前以6倍的PE交易,如果以10倍的话它的潜在价值是RM2.50哦 !
根据JF APEX的research,他们用SUM OF PARTS (为多元化业务的公司采用此方法)来为gadang做估值,得出来的数目是RM1.98
横看直看,总觉得奇怪为什么这公司怎么会一直长期的备受市场低估呢?
管理层的展望:
-对建筑依然看好,因为有MRT,LRT和国油RAPID的项目
-对产业臂膀仍然看好因为有The Vyne 和Capital city这个奶牛计划
-种植 - (继续沉默)
-水务 - 平平稳稳
**在去年的AGM里有人问到关于corporate exercise, 据消息说丹斯里暗示2016年将会派发红股**
最后一个要提的也就是top30大股东,gadang之前的总股数为216m,加上上个月成熟的凭单转换后目前总股数225m。
乍看之下…..
第三大股东KWSP
第四大股东KWAP
第六大股东 神秘人物
第十三大股东LTH
有官联机构在内,相信gadang获得合约的路上又多了几条润滑剂了
-不是buy call, 没有target price,纯属发泄对gadang股价长期被打压的不满 !-

Zeff Tan

SHARIX
2个小时前GADANG业绩刚刚出炉,Harry就帮Zeff加一些料进来。yoy Eps进步了114%!!! 现在的PE 才5.27, 而且上个星期刚刚获得 375.13 million的合约。


盈利已经两个季度进步超过100%, 相信未来两个季度还会陆续有来。加上是Net cash company , 以及符合建筑股的主题, 是家非常有潜质的公司。

以上纯属分享,买卖请自负!

http://harryteo.blogspot.my/2015/10/1163gadang-9261-by-zeff-tan.html

Homeritz Corporation - FY15 Results – below expectation

Results

  • Homeritz’s 4QFY15 revenue of RM38.11m (+15% yoy) was translated into PATAMI of RM6.64m (+28% yoy). This took FY15 PATAMI to RM23.55m (+16% yoy), accounting for 91% of our full year estimation.

Deviations

  • Higher than expected operating expenses.

Dividends

  • A final single tier tax-exempt dividend of 2.5 sen was declared in 4Q (FY14: 3.1 sen).

Highlights

  • FY08/15 review… The group achieved revenue of RM146.42m, an increase of 15.1% yoy, mainly due to growth in volume of sales and stronger US$. Its PATAMI improved 27% yoy, from RM20.25m in FY14 to RM25.70m in FY15.
  • 4QFY15 review… Revenue increased 14.7% yoy. PBT was up 44% yoy to RM8.95m in 4QFY15, from RM6.23m in 4QFY14. The improved performance in 4QFY15 compared to 4QFY4 was attributed to the strengthening US$.
  • Stronger USD… Based on our ec onomist’s projection, RM would remain weak until end-2015. Our MYR yearend forecast is now revised to RM4.30/US$ from RM4.00/US$. Sensitivity analysis shows that every RM0.10/US$ appreciation will boost FY16 net profit by about 6%.

Risks

  • USD weakness against RM; high raw material prices; high labour costs; unexpected economic downturn; and production or operational risks.

Forecasts

  • Unchanged, pending update from management.

Rating

  • Maintain BUY
  • Posi tives: 1) the group would benefit from strong US$; (2) its revenue and PATAMI are expected to grow at CAGR of 11% and 27% respectively from FY14 to FYE17; (3) forecasted FY16 net cash per share of 16.6sen; and (4) still attractive FY16E DY of 4.5%, based on 40% payout ratio.

Valuation

  • We maintain our BUY recommendation as well as our target price of RM1.42.
  • Our valuation is pegged to unchanged P/E multiple of 11x of CY16 EPS.
Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 30 Oct 2015

Fitch deficit warning compounds ringgit woes as Fed hike nears

(Oct 30): The ringgit led a decline among Asian currencies this week as Fitch Ratings’ warning that Malaysia may miss its fiscal deficit reduction target added to concern higher US interest rates will spur more capital outflows.

Malaysia’s 2016 budget shortfall could exceed Prime Minister Najib Razak’s estimate of 3.1% of gross domestic product due to falling commodities, Fitch said in a statement Tuesday as the government seeks to lower the gap to 3.2% this year. The currency is Asia’s worst performer in 2015 as slumping Brent crude cuts revenue for the oil exporter. While the ringgit is poised for its first monthly gain since April, ABN Amro Bank NV and Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd say the rally will be short-lived.

“Najib’s budget wasn’t enough to really boost investor confidence, especially in light of recent comments from Fitch,” said Sue Trinh, head of Asia foreign-exchange strategy at Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong. “Malaysia certainly stands to be one of the most vulnerable within Asia in the event the Federal Reserve does hike rates.”

The ringgit fell 2% this week and 0.2% on Friday to 4.3060 a dollar as of 10.27am in Kuala Lumpur, according to prices from local banks compiled by Bloomberg. While the currency has strengthened 2.1% in October, it’s down almost 19% for the year.

Interbank Deposits

Bank Negara Malaysia started taking in interbank dollar deposits for the first time in September, a move that Macquarie Bank Ltd’s head of currency and fixed-income strategy Nizam Idris said will help stabilize foreign-exchange reserves as it reduces the need for the central bank to intervene.

The holdings dropped below the US$100 billion mark in July for the first time since 2010, a blow to investor confidence. They have since recovered slightly but are still down 19% this year at US$94.10 billion.

Bank Negara is accepting deposits in small amounts, according to a person familiar, who asked not to be identified because of company policy. The move will help build up the country’s currency reserves, two other people said. The monetary authority said in response to questions that it’s encouraging financial institutions, including branches of overseas banks, to keep foreign-currency earnings and deposits of Malaysian-based companies in the domestic market.

Overseas investors were net buyers of the nation’s stocks for a third week through Oct 23, purchasing 230.4 million ringgit (US$54 million) and reducing outflows this year to 16.9 billion ringgit, according to a report from MIDF Amanah Investment Bank on Monday. That still exceeds the 6.9 billion ringgit for the whole of last year.

Malaysia’s five-year government bonds retreated this week, with the yield rising four basis points to 3.73%, according to prices from Bursa Malaysia. The 10-year yield fell four points to 4.12%.

Stock With Momentum: Mudajaya Group

This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on October 30, 2015.

Mudajaya Group Bhd ( Valuation: 0.90, Fundamental: 0.35) (+ve)

LOSS-MAKING Mudajaya (Fundamental: 0.35/3, Valuation: 0.9/3) triggered our momentum algorithm for the first time yesterday. The stock closed up 4.2% to RM1.25 on heavy volume.

Primarily a construction company, Mudajaya also has interests in property development, manufacturing & trading of construction materials, and power generation. In 2014, 80.9% of its revenue came from its construction arm.

The first half of 2015 has been a struggle for the company. Revenue slumped 58% y-y to RM270.8 million, causing the company to suffer a net loss of RM31.9 million. This compared to a net profit of RM28.4 million in 1H2014. The poor results were mainly due to cost overruns and lower construction revenue as most projects have been completed.

Positively, Mudajaya has replenished some of its orderbook in the past two months after clinching two contracts totalling RM533.3 million. The contracts are for construction works on the Pengerang Co-Generation Power Plant (RM43.9 million) and RAPID project (RM489.4 million) in Johor.

Mudajaya_SWM_FD_30Oct15_theedgemarkets

对动荡担忧减轻 美联储暗示12月升息

(华盛顿29日讯)美联储宣布,将短期利率保持不变在近零水平,但比以往更为明确地暗示可能在今年最后一次的12月会议上决定升息。
在结束为期两天的政策会议后发布的声明中,美联储官员暗示,他们在最近几周对金融市场动荡和海外经济形势的不确定性已不那么担忧。
他们并明确指出,下次会议将是他们评估升息时机是否已到的时候,同时,将评估距离其实现充分就业和2%的通胀率目标的实际和预期进展。
尽管并未明确表示将会立即采取行动,但提及下次会议可能行动,实际上意味着美联储目前将以每次会议为基础做出利率决定。
美联储在声明中去掉了9月会议声明中曾包含的一句话,即市场动荡和全球事态发展对美国经济活动具有潜在的抑制作用。
仍担心中国放缓
此外,也表示,仍在监控金融市场和海外形势发展,这意味着官员们尚无信心中国放缓等威胁已完全消退。
不过,官员们强调消费者支出和企业投资的稳健增长速度,以及房地产市场的改善,皆是最近经济发展的亮点。
美联储于2008年12月将短期利率降至近零水平,并于此后连续82个月将利率保持在该水位。
美联储指,就业增长已减慢,但整体而言,劳动力资源利用率不足的情况,自今年年初以来已经减弱。
官员们在声明中提到,债券市场所衡量的未来通胀预期在近几周来小幅下降,显示投资者预期消费者价格指数(CPI)不会很快回升。
美联储官员密切关注通胀预期,因该预期可能影响个人、企业和投资者对商品和服务的实际要求价格。
美联储官员一如以往地表示,在对通胀将回升至2%目标具有合理信心后,才会升息。
通胀在过去逾三年时间里皆低于美联储的目标。官员们也希望看到就业市场进一步改善。
美联储将于12月15至16日举行今年最后一次会议。

结合电子商务传统零售 新邮政6.4 亿建新商场

(新加坡29日讯)新加坡邮政(SingPost)投入1亿5000万新元(约6亿4275万令吉),打造当地第一个结合电子商务和传统零售的新概念零售广场,为消费者打造全新购物体验。
这个零售商场共有五层,包括一个地下层,坐落在巴耶利峇(Paya Lebar)地铁站外,位于新邮政中心前面的空地,总楼面面积达2万5000平方公尺,新商场完成后连同现有办公楼将成为全新的新加坡邮政中心。
新加坡邮政主席林和纪表示,随着全球邮件流量不断减少,集团设定目标朝全球电子商务物流的方向发展,如今已成为国际领先的电子商务物流业者之一,目前集团有28%的营收来自电子商务相关业务,其余是传统与其他业务。
他强调,本地传统零售市场在电子商务挑战下,竞争只会越来越激烈,所以一定要想出新的概念才能继续走下去。
林和纪说:“我们的邮件量不断减少,所以我们必须做出改变,我们要在新加坡这智能国家建设智能商场。我们一直都想把本地公司推向国际市场,现在我们也想要把美国市场引进本地市场,这是我们正在做的事。”
线上线下完全结合
新邮政总裁拜尔(Wolfgang Baier)也指出,目前市场上的O2O概念(即线上到线下)并不正确,因为两者还是分开的,所以这个新商场是要创造出全新的O2(O Square)零售概念,把线上和线下服务完全结合。
对于目前巴耶利峇一带已有多家购物广场,市场竞争激烈,拜尔表示并不担心,因为全新概念的商场将可以吸引电子商务用户,租赁方面除了已公布的主要租户嘉华院线(Golden Village)和Kopitiam食阁,该商场也可以吸引集团目前在欧美超过100个的电子商务品牌前来发展。
这个新邮政中心的主要承包商为日本清水建设(Shimizu Corporation),工程预计在2017年中完成,除了全新商场外,集团原有大楼也会进行提升工程。

提高一级资本明年冀达11% 联昌拟发附加股筹资

(吉隆坡29日讯)国内营运环境持续面临严峻挑战,联昌国际(CIMB,1023,主板金融股)在短期内不排除筹资。
马银行投行研究分析员日前与联昌国际高层见面时,管理层指现阶段没面对急于筹资的压力,但仍有可能会通过筹资推高资本比率。
该集团放眼将目前的9%至9.2%一级资本比率(CET1),提高至2018年的11%目标水平。
为达到此目标,该集团将执行的措施包括脱售非核心资产,以及改善风险权重(Risk Weights)水平。
联昌国际旗下的泰国联昌国际银行,截至9月杪的一级资本率为9.1%,低于去年6月杪的10.4%。
印泰资产素质受损
泰国联昌国际银行正进行37亿泰铢(约4.4亿令吉)的附加股发行计划,以推高一级资本率至10.7%。
集团管理层也维持估计,今年的净利息赚幅(NIM)将萎缩20个基点。
联昌国际的整体资产素质也持续受压,尽管在大马和新加坡的情况仍趋稳,泰国和印尼的资产素质则趋弱。
在我国,国内企业和中小企业贷款还算理想,但零售贷款则有市况不佳的压力,或在明年稍微推高信贷成本。
印尼信贷成本续上扬
联昌国际管理层指出,印尼业务的拨备和信贷成本将持续增长,印尼联昌商业银行的60%煤炭相关借贷,陷入呆账。
而泰国联昌国际银行截至9月杪的净呆账率,也从前一季的3.9%,上升至4.3%;不过,预计今年内将不会再增添显著的商业或企业呆账。
整体而言,管理层认为集团下半年信贷成本,不会高于上半年平均的77至80个基点。
此外,该集团提供予大宗商品的贷款,占总贷款的10%,其中,种植领域占5%、油气占3%及煤炭占1%。
短期盈利变弱
基于联昌国际拨备持续趋高及整体营运环境挑战极大,分析员预计联昌国际在中短期内的盈利表现趋弱,下半年业绩料持续不理想。
马银行投行研究维持给予联昌国际“守住”评级,并根据2016财年的1.1倍价格账面价值比,给予该股5.60令吉目标价。
基于资产素质受损,肯纳格投行估计该集团信贷成本更高,而分别调低2015财年和2016财年盈利预测,幅度分别为7%和17%。
该投行因而大幅调低目标价至4.23令吉及下修至“跑输大市”评级。

Kenanga Research says take profit on garment-based Magni-Tech

KUALA LUMPUR: Kenanga Investment Bank Research has recommended investors to take profit on Magni-Tech Industries as the share price is now fully valued.

“We have upgraded its fair value (FV) to RM6.30 (ex-bonus FV: RM4.20) based on 12.0 times price-to-earnings ratio (previously 10 times) applied on CY16E EPS of 52.5 sen,” it said on Thursday. 

The research house said since its previous Trading Buy recommendation on Magni-Tech when the share price was at RM4.34 on Aug 6, the stock has performed well, appreciating by 35%.

The shares strongly outperformed the benchmark KLCI which declined by 0.5% to 1,686.51.

In fact, Magni-Tech recently hit a new high of RM5.80 on Oct 20, before profit taking kicked in.

“Positives already priced in? On Sept 9, Magni-Tech proposed to undertake a bonus issue of up to 53.2 million shares on a basis of one bonus share for every two existing Magni shares, with the exercise targeted to be completed by 4Q15. 

“Since then, the share price has risen by 32% leading us to believe that the market has priced in the impact of the announcement, as we have seen no substantial changes in their earnings outlook,” it said.

Kenanga Research said the outlook for Magni-Tech outlook remains intact. It expects FY16-17E core earnings growth of 7%-3% based on 5% on-year topline increase.

This will be driven by the strengthening US dollar and its sensitivity analysis indicates a 5% appreciation in US dollar against the ringgit could increase the company’s bottomline by 3%.

Another factor is that stable cotton prices are at three-year’s low level (currently US$63 a pound), compared to the 2011 peak at more than US$200 a lb. This should preserve FY16-17E margins at 7.4-7.3%.

“Given the sharp increase in Magni-Tech’s share price recently, we think investors could consider another garment manufacturer, Prolexus (Trading Buy; TP: RM3.15 at 10 times FY16E PER), given the strong similarities between the two.

“We prefer Prolexus for: (i) stronger FY16-17E revenue growth at 18% (against Magni-Tech’s 7%), and (ii) capacity expansion in both China and Malaysian operations which we conservatively estimate could increase FY16-17E garment production by 12-16% and boost earnings by 15%-26% to RM23.5mil to RM29.7mil.

“Given our lack of access to its management for more information, we maintain our FY16-17E earnings assumption at RM55.9mil to RM57.5mil for FY16-17E EPS of 51.5 sen to 52.9 sen (ex-bonus EPS: 34.3 sen-35.3 sen). 

“Our updated PER implies a 9% premium on peers’ average (11.0 times) reflecting its largest market cap status (RM632mil) among its peers (RM300m). 

“Note that our valuation represents a 43% premium to the FBM Small Cap (FBMSC) FY16E forward PER of 8.4 times. We believe the premium is justified by Magni-Tech’s superior ROE of 18% against the FBM Small Cap’s 9% as well as its US dollar-denominated earnings. 

“Our updated FV represents limited share price upside of 9%. Hence, we believe Magni-Tech is now fairly valued and recommend investors take profit,” it said.

KESM Industries: Plans for 2016 onwards in place

KUALA LUMPUR: KESM Industries Bhd said its plans for the financial year ending July 31, 2016 and beyond that are in place. 

“We are servicing growing markets and will continue to invest in testing and burn-in. We have a strong workforce and a heritage of quality service leadership,” said executive chairman and chief executive officer Samuel Lim in the company’s 2015 annual report released earlier on Thursday. 

Lim added that the group is in a healthy financial position. In 2015, KESM Industries recorded net profit of RM17.03mil against RM10.88mil in the previous year, as a result of various productivity programmes and cost management. Revenue for the full year also grew to RM263.12mil compared with RM254.37mil in 2014.

Amid the uncertain and challenging economic landscape, Lim said the group is constantly challenged by its customers to improve costs. 

“This is nothing new. We will continue to manage our resources efficiently and maintain a highly productive workforce to drive growth,” he said.
KESM’s core business is in specialised electronic manufacturing activities, including providing burn-in services. 
In 2015, the group expanded testing services and strengthened its burn-in services. The bulk of its expansion is testing devices for the automotive market. 

Lim is optimistic of a steady growth because the number of chips used in cars is increasing.  

KESM completed the final phase of its four-year development programme, which provides a fully integrated flow which monitors and controls the test during burn-in process. The system identifies how, when and where devices or equipment may fail before, during or after the burn-in and test process. 

Thursday, October 29, 2015

Homeritz’s 4Q earnings up 28% on stronger greenback, declares 2.5 sen dividend

KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 29): Furniture maker Homeritz Corp Bhd ( Valuation: 1.50, Fundamental: 1.95) registered net profit growth of 27.91% to RM6.64 million for its fourth quarter ended Aug 31, 2015 (4QFY15) from RM5.19 million a year ago, on higher sales and the strengthening of US dollar.

Earnings per share thus improved to 2.21 sen from 1.73 sen. The group proposed a final dividend of 2.5 sen per share, bringing total dividend to four sen per share for FY15.

Meanwhile revenue rose by 14.7% to RM38.11 million, from RM33.24 million a year ago.

For its full financial year (FY15), Homeritz posted a net profit of RM23.55 million, an increase of 16.32% from RM20.25 million in FY14, while revenue rose by 15.13% to RM146.42 million from RM127.18 million last year.

Despite an improved financial performance, the group noted that it is operating under conditions like global economic uncertainties, increases in its raw materials costs, and fluctuation in foreign exchange rates.

Therefore, Homeritz said it is continuing with its efforts to develop new products and new design for existing products, and to derive better cost efficiencies and effective cost management across all functions.

On its prospects in FY16, the group merely said it would remain profitable, barring unforeseen circumstances.

Homeritz fell one sen or 0.88% to close at RM1.13 today, giving it a market capitalisation of RM342 million.


(Note: The Edge Research's fundamental score reflects a company's profitability and balance sheet strength, calculated based on historical numbers. The valuation score determines if a stock is attractively valued or not, also based on historical numbers. A score of 3 suggests strong fundamentals and attractive valuations.)

Gadang’s 1Q net profit rises 118.66% on higher property contribution

KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 29): Gadang Holdings Bhd ( Valuation: 2.40, Fundamental: 1.70) saw its net profit for the first quarter ended Aug 31, 2015 (1QFY16) surge 118.66% to RM20.86 million or 9.61 sen per share from RM9.54 million or 4.41 sen per share a year ago.

The civil engineering and construction outfit said the better net income was driven by higher contributions from property activities.

Revenue for the quarter came in 12% higher at RM149.38 million from RM133.36 million in 1QFY15.

No dividend was declared for the quarter under review.

In a filing with Bursa Malaysia today, Gadang said profit before tax of its property division surged 348.8% to RM16.65 million from RM3.71 million last year.

"This was mainly due to higher development progress for various projects and changes in accounting estimates for revenue recognition treatment for Capital City Project," it added.

On its prospects, Gadang expects earnings to improve in the current financial year ending May 31, 2016 (FY16), driven by the strong outstanding order book of some RM805 million for the construction division, which is the core revenue generator for the group.

On the property division, it said the earnings will be underpinned by unbilled sales of some RM189 million, while the utility division will continue to provide stable earnings growth.

Shares in Gadang closed three sen or 1.95% higher at RM1.57, the highest point since May 21 this year.

At RM1.57, the counter has a market value of RM366.78 million.


(Note: The Edge Research's fundamental score reflects a company's profitability and balance sheet strength, calculated based on historical numbers. The valuation score determines if a stock is attractively valued or not, also based on historical numbers. A score of 3 suggests strong fundamentals and attractive valuations.)

这次真的是狼来了?‧李治宏

2015-10-29 12:13 
9大厂商分别传出遭收购、迁移、合并、关闭甚至裁员,槟城或失“东方矽谷”地位!
这是本报日前封面头条报道,引起各方关注,因为过去40年来,槟城一直是全马电子工业的重镇,更素来享有“东方矽谷”的美誉,但如今这个地位却可能随时岌岌可危。
尤其是当前槟州电子业的这一波动荡,涉及2家在槟城深耕逾40年,当年槟城电子业起步开跑时的大厂,即摩托罗拉(Motorola)及超微(AMD)。
迁移潮扩大
摩托罗拉在槟城的业务是因早前被收购转为只是研发部门,超微则于上周宣布将出售槟州的组装和测试业务给中国公司,全球5%员工将被裁员,或影响它在槟城的厂房业务。
此外,这一波涉及的还有安费诺(马)私人有限公司(Amphenol TCS)、EMC、UTi、Ericsson等。
其中,Amphenol在峇六拜一间工厂关闭,订单转交中国厂商、EMC则被全球电脑巨人戴尔(Dell)并购,以及UTi与Ericsson则分别是被DSV及伟创力(Flextronic)收购。
总公司来自美国的安费诺是因为位于峇六拜工厂的生产线收入下滑,基于业务策略考量下,因此决定把厂房迁至中国,估计槟城150名员工,包括工程师和操作员料将失去工作。
槟城电子业的这番最新状况,令笔者想起了之前两次,即2001年及2008年时的情景。
2001年,全球网络泡沫破裂,当时全球电子业也深受重创,一度引起国人关注,作为大马电子城的槟城电子业会否遭拖累,从此山河失色。
但答案当然是否定的。
能否安渡“七年之痒”?
槟城电子业非但没有因此倒下,反而继续茁壮增长,而早在槟城前首长已故敦林苍祐上世纪70年代初期为弥补槟城失去自由港地位,大举引入国际电子大厂时即已进驻槟岛的7武士(7 Samurais),包括安捷伦科技(Agilent Technologies,前身为惠普)、超微、飞兆半导体(Fairchild Semicon,前身为National Semicon)、日立、英特尔(Intel)、摩托罗拉及欧司朗(Osram,前身为西门子Siemens)非但对槟岛不离不弃,反而持续增资扩充业务。
2008年,美国掀起次级房贷风暴,打击世界经济,连带的,全球电子业景气也大受冲击,当时槟城电子业的荣衰再度引起关注。
但,笔者再次因此走访槟城,实地访问当地部分大厂及主导槟州投资的投资槟城公司时,也获他们力证,槟城电子业根基非但丝毫未动摇。
相反的,槟城制造业正逐渐从过往过度依赖电子业劳力密集模式,转型升级为高科技发展。
凑巧的是,2001及2008年,相隔7年,如今另一个7年过去了,槟城电子业再次出现“七年之痒”的动荡,这次仍会安稳过渡吗?
槟州吸资魅力仍在
和上两次不同的是,若加上去年宣布关闭槟城厂房的飞兆半导体,当年是槟城电子业“开国元老”的“七武士”,如今只走剩4个,即英特尔、日立、安捷伦及欧司朗,另4个已“折翼”离开。
那么,槟城过去逾40年辛苦打造的“东方矽谷”江山会否就此断送?
笔者认为,一切未必都是这么悲观。
上述深耕已久的老牌大厂纷纷撤资离开,问题并不完全出在槟城本身,最主要还是整个全球电子业的景气循环与产业结构重整,受到有关大厂美欧母公司业务决策转变影响所致。
这并非槟城已失去其投资吸引力。反之,行业不景、订单大跌、财务问题等,才是它们离开槟州的主因。
所谓危机就是转机,槟城电子业以致整体科技产品制造业,反而可捉紧这次行业重整的契机,顺势转型,将该工业生产价值链升级至更高的层次。
继续留在槟城的跨国电子大厂,以及新进驻的跨国制造业,将可进驻新兴科技领域如光电(Photonic)、发光二极管(LED)、生物科技、太阳能及微波(Microwave)等。
事实上,槟城经济基础目前已相当稳健,经济产业机构多元化,对电子业的依赖已比往日大为减轻。
过去数年,槟城引进的高科技制造业,如近半年先后进驻的中国晶科(Jinko Solar)及晶澳太阳能公司(JASolar)陆续在槟城设立高性能光伏电池制造厂,就是很好的例子。
李治宏 南洋商报副新闻编辑

http://www.nanyang.com/node/731296?tid=743

SuperMan 99 - Cypark Resources Bhd - Paper Profits, Cash Flow & Future Profits

What are the Relationship of Intangible Assets, Paper Profits, Cash Flow & Future Profits for Cypark Resources Bhd? How all the above related to each others?


Referring to Page 99 of the 2014 Annual Report of Cypark Resources Berhad:

Included in the revenue of environmental engineering segment is an amount of RM135,640,117 (2013: RM84,689,433) which represents the construction revenue recognised pursuant to IC Interpretation 12 (“IC 12”) - Service Concession Arrangements from construction of a public service infrastructure. Revenue is recognised in accordance with MFRS 111 and based on the percentage of completion method during the construction phase.


Included in the cost of sales of environmental engineering segment is an amount RM99,460,503 (2012: RM65,422,723) which represents construction costs recognised pursuant to IC Interpretation 12 - Service Concession Arrangements from the construction of a public service infrastructure.

The accounting entries for taking the construction of Ladang Tanah Merah Project (Concession Arrangement) are as follows: 

Dr Intangible Assets
Cr     Revenue

Dr Cost of Revenue
Cr     Bank (Payment of expenses) 

External Revenue Dropped Over Years
That mean, if without the LTM project, the actual external revenue for Environment Engineering would be as follows: 
2014:  Total External = RM151M - RM135M = RM16M

2013:  Total External = RM183M - RM85M = RM98M
2012:  Total External = RM171M - RM0M = RM171M 
The external revenue from Environment Engineering Segment were infact decreasing over the past 3 years.

Paper Profits & Actual Cash Funding Problems
Correspondingly, the intangible assets was increased in 2 years (85M+135M) with total of RM220M, this was also stated in Note No.5 of the Audited Accounts 2014 (Page 81). 
All in all, the profits of at least RM55M (2013: 19M + 2014: 36M) are paper profits, arising from the recognisation of profits & loss from IC Interpretation 12.

That explained why the company needed so much cash in 2013 & 2014, with active arrangement of private placements & term loans drawdown.
(Example in 2014: 36M private placement + 26M net term loan drawdown).
The company need to continue pay good dividend to maintain good corporate relationship with stakeholders (especially existing & future investors), even though the company is indeed desperately in need of so much cash to fund the LTM project. 
The cash depleted trend will continue in FY2015 & FY2016. 

Future Profits
The company is expected to be able to turn around in 2017, as its CEO has estimated RM100M cash revenue yearly from the concession by then. 

My conclusion: This stock is long term play.

Declaration: I do not hold any share in this company directly or indirectly at time of writing this article, invest at your own risk.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/hardworkeasylifesuperman99/85251.jsp

EG转向高赚利代工产品,会成功吗?若成功会是第2个VS吗?有待观察。

2014年,大马两家公司成功挤入全球50大电子制造服务商(EMS也称为电子代工商)。一家为过去1年至今股价暴涨的VS(6963),另一家则是SMT料投公司,是EG工业(8907)的独资子公司。去年7月份新加坡上市公司入主EG,目前持有32.4%,成为EG最大股东。

(资汇)在今年8月份专访EG执行主席郑耀楗及首席执行员兼执行董事江邦健,两位与(资汇)细谈公司如何堤高赚幅的策略,一般电子产品生产过程分为印刷电路板组装(PCBA)或或品组装(BOX BUILD),PCBA业务的赚幅普遍上偏低,BOX BUILD业务的赚幅比较高,江邦健预计BOX BUILD在2016财政年的贡献可达到20%,并逐年增加至2018财政年的30%。

EG成功在今年8月份,获得芬兰Tramigo公可的车载定位器,(Vehicle Tracker)代工订单,可为公司在2年带来5千万美元(2亿1千万令吉)的营业额。

这可说是在BOX BUILD业务一个好的开始,接下来,估计会有9到10个新顾客出现,也会增加研究部门人手,为顾客提供原厂委托代工设计(ODM)服务。

由於公司的产品是100%供出口,所以销售都是以美元计价,令吉贬值对公司有利,公司30/6/14财政年营业额993m,30/6/15财政年营业额842m,江邦健表示,以SMT科技的品牌,再加上欧洲的产品需求量增加,他有信心在2016财政年取得12亿令吉营业额,并在2018年财政年达到20亿令吉,加上转攻赚幅较高的产品,2016财政年开始,公司的盈利料会明显上涨。

以20%的新产品(预计净利润赚幅10%)以及80%的原有产品(过往净利润赚幅0.2%)计算,估计整体净利润赚幅可提高至2.16%,这也意味着,若成功在2016财政年达到12亿令吉的营业额目标,预测净盈利将会上升至25.92m,或等于每股盈利13.5分(附加股后目前股票数额=192700股),合理价=RM1.35,(给于10倍p/e)2017财政年营业额15亿令吉,以25%的新产品以及75%的原有产品计算、估计整体净利润赚幅可提高至2.65%,预测净盈利将会上升至39.75m,或等于每股盈利20.6分,合理价=RM2.06,2018财政年营业额20亿令吉,以30%的新产品以及70%的原有产品计算,估计整体净利润赚幅可提高至3.14%,预测净盈利将会上升至62.8m,或等于每股盈利32.6分,合理价=RM3.26。

看一看VS(6963)的近2年业绩,截止31/7/14财政年,营业额1715m,净盈利53.6m或等于每股盈利4.61分(股票数额=1162000股)整体净利润赚幅达3.13%,31/7/15财政年,营业额1937m,净盈利132.74m或等于每股盈利11.4分,整体净利润赚幅达6.85%,以23/10/15闭市价RM1.52来算,p/e已达13.3倍了,VS整体净利润赚幅比EG高。

我发觉到自从去年7月份,新大股东入主后,30/6/15财政年的盈利比30/6/14财政年净利率有很大进步,30/6/14财政年的净利率才0.2%而已,30/6/15净利率达1.2%(已扣除一次性的盈利),公司弱点是:没有派发股息,高负债,净负债率达1.18%,但附加股后,净负债率会下降至0.80左右,若接下来公司转向高赚利产品成功,债务肯定会下降,相信也会开始派股息。

我认为管理层把目标订的太高一点,只要能达到以下的目标,就很棒子。

2016财政年=营业额10亿,以20%的新产品(预计净利润赚幅10%)以及80%的原有产品(过往净利润赚幅0.2%)计算,估计整体净利润赚幅可提高至2.16%,预测净盈利=21.6m,或等于每股盈利11.2分,合理价=RM1.12。

2017财政年营业额12亿令吉,以25%的新产品以及75%的原有产品计算,估计整体净利润赚幅可提高至2.65%,预测净盈利将会上升至31.8m,或等于每股盈利16.5分,合理价=RM1.65,
2018财政年营业额15亿令吉,以30%的新产品以及70%的原有产品计算,估计整体净利润赚幅可提高至3.14%,预测净盈利将会上升至47.1m,或等于每股盈利24.4分,合理价=RM2.44。

注:我在20/8/15以RM0.565买进一点EG,,又在20/8/15以RM0.08买进不少的EG-OR,由于买入成本低,就算预测不对,我也很放心。

(只供参考,若有买卖,盈亏自负)

Mitrajaya Holdings Bhd - Prospects Remain Intact

Recently, we visited MITRA and met up with its management and came away feeling NEUTRAL as there are no major updates from the group. Having said that, we think that the group’s prospects remain attractive at this juncture, due to strong outstanding orderbook of RM1.6b with two years of earnings visibility coupled with a sizeable tenderbook of RM4.1b. Post meeting, we maintain our OUTPERFORM recommendation with unchanged TP of RM1.63. Our TP implies 7.3x Fwd-PER, which falls at the lower end of the small-mid cap contractors’ Fwd-PER range of 7-13x. Given that the stock is still trading at singledigit valuation, i.e. FY16E PER of 5.4x, it offers a potential total upside of 38.9%, including dividend yield of 2.1%.

Outstanding orderbook worth RM1.6b. The outstanding orderbook of RM1.6b is contributed by six large projects which is expected to last for next two years i.e. FY16 and FY17 (refer overleaf).

Targeting to secure RM1.0b for FY15 and FY16. YTD, MITRA has secured c.RM291m worth of contracts, making up 41.6% of our FY15 new contracts assumption of RM700m. While our FY15E and FY16E target of RM700m each is relatively conservative as compared to management’s unchanged target of RM1.0b, they remain optimistic in meeting their target by end 2015 or early 2016. We understand that the remaining RM700m will come from infrastructure works with contract sizes of between RM200m and RM300m. Assuming these contracts materialise by FY15 and MITRA secures up to RM1.0b new contracts, this could offer potential upward revision in our earnings estimates by 6% for FY16.

Sizeable tenderbook of RM4.1b. To date, MITRA has submitted tenderbook amounted to RM4.1b, mainly for building works (RM3.0b) and infrastructure project (RM1.1b). The project types include affordable housing project, LRT3 project (connecting Bandar Utama to Shah Alam and Klang), and infrastructure projects (SUKE, DASH and Pan Borneo Highway). While we were surprised by MITRA’s move to venture into Sarawak Pan Borneo Highway project, management guided that they have set up their first subsidiary branch in Kuching, Sarawak as an entry point to touch base with Sarawak construction projects.

Property market likely to remain uninspiring in FY16. Property sales for MITRA’s current projects, 280 Park Homes in Puchong Prima and Wangsa 9 residency softened in FY15, no thanks to the tighter lending policy and hike in property prices. YTD, total unbilled sales is RM198.3m and it is expected to last for the next three years. In view of the current unexciting property market, Phase 3 of Wangsa 9 Residency is targeted to be launched after 1H16. While we believe the property market’s outlook is expected to remain lacklustre in FY16, we do not expect the group to be greatly affected, given that its property segment contributed a mere 7.9% of 1H15 PBT, in contrast to its main earnings contributor, construction segment (76% of 1H15 PBT).

Blue Valley Golf and Country Estate in South Africa growth is on track. Among its overseas property launched (Extension 72, 74 and 75), 70% of its launches were sold while the remaining is expected to be fully sold by 2016. The management expects its overseas property division to generate annual profit of RM15m, which is in line with our expectation.

Dividend likely to be maintained at 3.3 sen per share (pre bonus issue: 5.0 sen per share). Historically, the Group has been paying dividend of 1.3 sen per share (pre bonus issue: 2.0 sen per share). Since FY14, MITRA increased its dividend payout to 3.3 sen per share (2.7% dividend yield) which is likely to be maintained for now, which is slightly higher than our forecast of 2.5 sen per share (2.1% dividend yield).

Maintain OUTPERFORM with unchanged TP of RM1.63. Our TP implies 7.3x Fwd-PER, which falls at the lower end of the small-mid cap contractors’ Fwd-PER range of 7-13x. We like this stock as it provides PBT margin >10%, which is superior compared to small-mid cap peers’ average PBT margin of 7.5%. Given that the stock is still trading at single-digit valuation, i.e. FY16E PER of 5.4x, it offers a potential total upside of 38.9%, including dividend yield of 2.1%.
Source: Kenanga Research - 29 Oct 2015

国际能源署: 供应过剩 石油投资明年续缩水

(新加坡27日讯)国际能源署(IEA)署长比罗尔(Fatih Birol)表示,全球市场原油供应饱和的情况将延续到明年中,而油价持续处于低靡水平预期将使石油业的投资总额继续减少。
他在新加坡国际能源周会议上讲话时指,今年石油投资已经减少逾五分之一,2016年或将进一步下滑。
“如果真是这样,那将是20年来首次见到石油业投资连续两年下滑,这可能成为未来油市的一个征兆。”
关注中东局势不过,他认为中东地缘政治局势紧张,可能会导致原油供应中断,并且对石油业构成挑战。
他也指,一旦对伊朗制裁被解除,伊朗现有油田的产量在一年内可能每天增加40万到60万桶,这不包括来自当地浮动油库的原油。
原油需求前景放缓意味着供应过剩的情况将再持续好几个月,促使投机客削减看涨油价的押注,国际油价昨天维持疲弱走势。
高盛更预测,油价可能会急剧下跌。
高盛指出,油品库存已接近最大容量,这将使供应过剩的问题进一步恶化,原油价格可能因而暴跌。
它不认为原油市场能在明年达到供需平衡的水平,供过于求问题已导致油价自2014年6月以来下跌超过一半。
巨头也被震 马士基裁员12%
因原油价格下跌影响,全球最大船运公司马士基集团下属石油公司宣布裁员和削减成本幅度高达两位数的计划。
马士基石油公司(Maersk Oil)宣布,到明年年末,运营成本要降低20%,其中举措之一是全球范围裁员,今年将裁员约1250人,裁减人数占员工总数的10%至12%。
公司总执行长汤姆森表示,预计经营压力会持续到明年,在石油市场发展必须专注于成本。
根据文告指,上述决定是在对业务活动进行大范围内部评估后做出,这也是在油价持续低位之后做的决定。
4龙头现金干涸
全球规模最大的几家石油公司目前已难以产生足够的现金来应对开支和股息支出,尽管它们在油价下跌之际采取了削减数十亿美元预算的措施。
《华尔街日报》的一项分析显示,2015年上半年,全球四家规模最大的石油公司在新项目、股票回购和股息上的合计开支超出它们合计现金流逾200亿美元(约853亿令吉)。
这四家公司是荷兰皇家壳牌有限公司(Royal Dutch Shell)、英国石油公司(BP)、埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil)和雪佛龙公司(Chevron)。
拼命减开销
分析员称,预计这些公司本周公布业绩时将披露持续的资金短缺情况。
之前的10年中,高油价支撑了超大型石油项目和稳步上升的股东派息,而现在石油巨头们最近几个月已经削减了逾300亿美元(约1280亿令吉)开支,还采取了裁员和推迟项目等举措。
预计这些公司还将削减更多开支。

埃尔尼诺和烟霾影响 IOI棕果串料跌10%

(吉隆坡27日讯)IOI集团(IOICORP,1961,主板种植股)预计埃尔尼诺(El Nino)气候和烟霾的影响,将会影响10%的鲜果串产量。
IOI集团总执行长拿督李耀祖在今天出席集团股东大会后向媒体指出,受气候更因素影响,下调鲜果串产量的预测,从早前的估计5至7%增长,削减到3至5%增长。
他指出,如今正步入低产量季节,埃尔尼诺(El Nino)和烟霾的影响,导致日照时间缩短,光合作用随之减少。”
由此,他将今年公司鲜果串产量从早前预测的5至7%的成长,削减至3至5%。
最低薪制影响不大
然而,气候因素不会影响IOI集团的收益,因为随着库存量的减少,可推高原棕油价格回升。
李耀祖指出,原棕油价格可维持在目前每公吨2300令吉的稳健水平至年杪,并可望在明年首季进一步走强。
对于最低薪金制将在明年7月实行,李耀祖认为这对IOI集团的影响不大,因为大部分员工的薪资以高过法定水平,其中包括津贴和奖掖。
“若扣除津贴和奖掖,旗下2万5000名员工中有15至20%的薪资处在目前最低薪金的水平。”
90%美元债务
另外,对IOI集团来说,令吉走贬不能忽略,在目前的60亿令吉总债务中,有90%的债务以美元计算。
无论如何,李耀祖指出,唯有在2017财年开始,才会感受到美元走强的冲击,因为还债到期日多为那一年开始。
他补充,美元每走强20%,肥料成本就加重3%。

KTC listing soon

KUALA LUMPUR: Sabah-based consumer package goods manufacturer and distributor Kim Teck Cheong Consolidated Bhd (KTC) plans to raise RM21.3mil from its initial public offering (IPO) on the ACE Market of Bursa Malaysia at the end of next month.
KTC plans to use the proceeds to expand its warehousing facilities, warehousing construction and equipment purchase, all amounting to RM14mil.
The remainder would be spent on working capital and listing expenses, the company said after its prospectus launch yesterday.
KTC, which started off as a sundry shop 77 years ago, was founded by the Lau family and is now a distributor of food and beverage (F&B) products, personal care, household, over-the-counter drugs and health supplements.
KTC also carries its own F&B brands such as Orie, Bamble and Creamos.
Under its IPO, KTC plans to issue 142 million new shares, or 27.83% of its share capital, at 15 sen a piece.
Also, 34 million new shares will be made to the public, 16.255 million for eligible employees of the group and 91.745 million shares for selected investors.
At 15 sen per share, KTC has priced its issuance at a price earnings multiple of 10.9 times its earnings for financial year ended June 31, 2015.
The company said it had identified institutional investors, some of them government-linked, and received overwheming response. The institutional portion was three times oversubscribed, it said.
KTC posted a higher net profit of RM7.07mil for its financial year ending June 30, 2015 on the back of improved revenue of RM299.8mil against its previous year.

Macquarie keeps ‘outperform’ call on Mah Sing

PETALING JAYA: Macquarie Research has maintained its “outperform” call on Mah Sing Group Bhd, stating that the company’s resilience can weather the slowdown in the property sector.
In its published report yesterday, Macquarie said this was mainly backed by the group’s affordable pricing points, strategic geographical exposure and experienced management team that has gone through such challenging property cycles in the past.
It pointed out that the group’s decision not to proceed with the Seremban and Festival Lake City projects had left it with an excess cash of RM363mil, from the RM630mil raised through a rights issue with warrants in February.
Also, the group had scaled back its launch and sales targets by 41% and 33%, said Macquarie.
In viewing these measures positively, Macquarie believed being realistic and prudent are key to surviving property market uncertainties.
It pointed out that Mah Sing’s net cash position could be an opportunity for the group to acquire landbank or even merger and acquisition with property companies with good landbank portfolios in future.
“We estimate earnings to grow by 11.3% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) from financial year 2014 (FY14) to FY17 (forecast), anchored by its unbilled sales of RM4.8bil.
“The current unbilled sales number is already 1.85 times FY14’s property revenue,” said Macquarie Research.
But, it expects Mah Sing’s return on equity to have a negative CAGR of 5.4% FY14-17E, mostly attributed to its larger share capital.
“We cut our 12-month target price to RM1.69 from RM2.97, pegging a 30% discount to our RNAV estimate of RM2.42.
“On that note, we have also revised our estimates for Mah Sing,” said the research company.
Mah Sing project cycles consist of 71% in the intro and growth life cycles.
With 2,546 acres of landbank worth RM26.4bil, Macquarie believed this was positive for the group’s future growth.
To date, Mah Sing is among the few property developers to have registered sales of RM1bil and above from the domestic market alone, it added.
The group is known for being an advocate of developers in the affordable segment with projects mostly concentrated in the central region.
For 2015, the group has maintained its presence in the mass market segment with 84% of launches from the less-than RM1mil price cohort, of which 44% were below the RM500,000 price tag.
Based on Mah Sing’s revalued net asset valuation estimates, 63% of its projects were in the central region, with the bulk from its Southville City project in Bangi that has gross development value of RM8.3bil.

周顯 港殼有價 因不會被充公

港殼有價 因不會被充公 2015年10月29日

【明報專訊】我說過很多次,細價股之所以在這幾年猛升不停,一來是因為窩輪市場被政府打殘了,小股民被迫專炒細價股。二來因為殼價升了幾倍,從而令到細價股的股價水漲船高。

然而,細價股的股價為何會不停的上漲呢?當然是因為內地人不停的來港買殼。但是,內地人又為甚麼如此熱中於來港買殼呢?我的觀察是:因為內地政府叫停了A股的IPO,現時A股殼的價格高達十幾廿億,相對來說,香港的殼價只是6億幾,實在太廉,因此就吸引到內地的莊家紛紛來港買殼了。

黃光裕坐牢 仍持有國美電器股份

日前,一位莊家朋友告訴了我另一個故事: 要知道,內地的大款被抓獲了,除了判決坐牢之外,必然也會充公資產。但是,黃光裕的案件告訴了內地的所有人,他雖然坐牢,但他的國美電器(0493)的股份卻並沒有被充公,中國人登時心領神會「哦,原來只要把內地的資產注進了香港的上市公司,縱然被拉,也不用充公資產」。因此,這便成為內地人來港買殼的契機了。

這位莊家朋友還說:「家陣習近平打貪打得咁犀利,個個都想走資來香港啦。前幾排,有個人想賣一層深圳寫字樓給我,話如果我在香港付現金給他本人,可以打個折扣咁話。」

我問:「咁你有無應承吖?」

他說:「梗係無!我驚法律手續不清,付款後拿不到業權,咁咪弊傢伙?」

[周顯 投資二三事]

http://www.mpfinance.com/htm/finance/20151029/columnist/en30_en30.htm

Wednesday, October 28, 2015

Future electric cars, should be powered from hydrogen or batteries?

Toyota Motor Corp President Akio Toyoda poses with the company's hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (FCV) sedan car "Mirai" (L) and hybrid car "Prius" after a parade to promote next week's Tokyo Motor Show in Tokyo, Japan October 24, 2015. - REUTERS

Toyota Motor Corp President Akio Toyoda poses with the company's hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (FCV) sedan car "Mirai" (L) and hybrid car "Prius" after a parade to promote next week's Tokyo Motor Show in Tokyo, Japan October 24, 2015. - REUTERS

TOKYO/DETROIT: Asia's two autos powerhouses, Japan and China, are jostling for supremacy in how future electric cars should generate their power – from batteries or hydrogen-powered fuel-cells.

In a potentially high-stakes clash reminiscent of Sony versus Panasonic in the Beta-VHS video war in the 1980s, the winner could enjoy years of domination if their technology is adopted as a global standard by other manufacturers.

This time, though, there should be a place in the autos market for both electric battery and hydrogen fuel-cell cars. The key question is which will power more mainstream cars – the market dominated today by the likes of Toyota, General Motors and Volkswagen.

"We're reaching a crossroads," says James Chao, Shanghai-based Asia-Pacific managing director for industry consultant IHS Automotive. "It's difficult to exaggerate the significance of the choice between batteries and hydrogen.

"Billions of dollars will be invested in one or the other and may determine which companies will lead the industry through the end of this century."

RIVAL VISIONS

China, a major oil importer and blighted by air pollution, is pushing for all-electric (EV) cars, offering incentives to buyers, forcing global automakers to share their technology, and opening its market to tech firms and others to produce electric vehicles.

For a decade, Beijing has pushed for the EV to become a mass-market car, hoping a low entry barrier will allow its relative latecomers to close a competitive gap with global rivals who have a century's head-start in traditional combustion engines.

"(China President) Xi Jinping explained it very well, saying that developing new energy vehicles is the Chinese auto industry's only road to grow from being big to being strong," Xu Heyi, chairman of Beijing Automotive Group and a high-ranking Communist Party official, told reporters recently.

Japan, though, sees the future differently and is investing heavily in fuel-cell technology and infrastructure as part of a national policy to foster what it calls a 'hydrogen society', where the zero-emission fuel would power homes and vehicles.

Toyota Motor especially is keen to maintain the alternative propulsion lead it established a decade and a half ago with the full hybrid electric Prius.

"It's not that we're not doing anything about the EV. Technically speaking, EV is a relatively easier technology," said Koei Saga, Toyota's senior managing officer in charge of vehicle powertrain technology. "But it needs to evolve. If you're looking for the ultimate solution, the EV probably isn't it."

To be sure, China and Japan are not alone. GM has joint research with Honda on hydrogen cars, while BMW is Toyota's fuel-cell partner. Daimler in Europe and Hyundai Motor in South Korea are also carrying out their own research and development on a hydrogen car.

MORE AFFORDABLE

Honda Motor unveiled a 'mass market' hydrogen fuel-cell car at the Tokyo Motor Show on Wednesday that will go on sale in Japan in March, to be followed by launches in the United States and Europe, key potential markets for the technology.

Honda believes the car, dubbed the Clarity Fuel Cell, has reached the affordability range where a "fairly typical mainstream consumer could stretch to buy one," Toshihiro Mibe, a Honda operating officer, told Reuters. "We want this car to be the trigger for the 'hydrogen society'." The Clarity, which will retail for 7.66 million yen ($63,970) before government subsidies, follows this year's launch of Toyota's hydrogen-powered Mirai - meaning 'future' in Japanese. Mirai buyers benefit from subsidies totalling around 3 million yen ($24,915) per vehicle.

Honda's main advance on Toyota's technology is to have shrunk the fuel-cell stack - the ensemble of fuel-cell, motor and transmission – by a third from a 2008 model it leased to a few private buyers in California in a subsidized trial deal.

That allows Honda to store the whole stack under the hood, and package the car as "roomy enough to comfortably sit five adults," said Kiyoshi Shimizu, chief engineer for the new car, though it still sacrifices trunk space to accommodate a bulky hydrogen fuel tank. The battery pack sits under the front seat.

"With this, we now hope to make a hydrogen powertrain an option across our product line," Shimizu added.

ON TESLA'S TAIL

China, meanwhile, is running full tilt at electric vehicles, and has opened its automotive industry to deep-pocketed technology firms to invest.

The move has bred more than half a dozen Chinese-funded EV start-ups, backed by the likes of Baidu, Alibaba, Xiaomi and Tencent, as well as LeTV, a streaming video and web-connected television provider.

Some, such as LeTV-funded Atieva and Faraday Future, have set up operations in California, in part to skim off talent and expertise that Tesla and others have developed there. Both aim specifically to create plush electric cars to compete with Tesla's Model S in the next 2-3 years.

While this looks ambitious, one industry official said it should be taken seriously given the start-ups' funding clout.

In a carrot-and-stick policy, Beijing provides subsidies for private buyers of more than $25,000 on an all-electric battery car and more than half that on a heavily electrified, so-called plug-in hybrid. It has also toughened fuel economy rules in a bid to force automakers to introduce more electric cars, and encourages global automakers operating in China to share electric car technology with their local partners.

At the centre of the new wave of China's EV producers is Jia Yueting, the 42-year-old billionaire founder of LeTV, who has funded Atieva, Faraday and his own EV efforts.

Jia wants to build a high-performance electric car, a potential 'Tesla killer' he has christened Le Supercar. He has also ploughed hundreds of millions of dollars into Atieva and Faraday, while LeTV has partnerships with state-owned Beijing Auto and with British sports car maker Aston Martin, which could accelerate his efforts to put high-performance electric cars on the road in 2017-18.

Other Chinese-funded EV start-ups also have Tesla in their sights. NextEV is backed by three Chinese Internet entrepreneurs and Tencent, while Pateo started out as a digital marketing agency before developing smart, Internet-connected car technology. It now aims to create its own smart electric car.

FILLING UP

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's growth strategy includes calls for subsidies and tax breaks for buyers of fuel cell vehicles, relaxed curbs on hydrogen fuel stations and other steps on a roadmap to promote hydrogen energy.

The ruling party wants to bring down the cost of a fuel-cell car to about $20,000 by 2025, and the government aims to create 100 hydrogen fuel stations by March in urban areas where the vehicles will initially be launched.

"For the hydrogen car to take off, we need a fairly well developed infrastructure to make liquid hydrogen available everywhere. On that front, Japan is among the world's most aggressive and advanced," said Honda's Mibe.

Neither technology, however, comes without sizeable challenges - from regulation and subsidies to infrastructure.

Both need to significantly expand the number of refuelling and recharging stations and, while EVs still need to convince long-distance drivers, hydrogen's appeal to the masses may be blunted by its cost. "There's a lot more room for the fuel-cell vehicle to improve and evolve," says Mibe.

($1 = 120.4100 yen) - Reuters

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2015/10/28/Japans-hydrogen-car-vs-Chinas-battery-drive/?style=biz

转贴] 與前輩吃飯 - 止凡

15年10月27日

十多年前,止凡初出來社會工作,跟隨一位高級工程師學習,在職培訓,這是很多專業都會採納的計劃。當年這位高級工程師,今天繼續升職加 薪,早幾年被派往內地某辦公室處理生意,已經算頗高級了。其實,近年很少與他連絡,只知道三年前左右他離開了舊公司。近日,他得知我在財經媒體上的報導, 特意約我出來聚舊,討論一下財務。

與前輩吃飯,先談了一下近況,就直入正題,討論有關財務的東西。前輩坦言看到小弟在iM的專欄,被六位數字的年股息收入所吸引,這迫使他自我檢視一下自己的財務狀況,發現的確有整頓一下的必要,所以約我出來看看有何意見。

前 輩正在煩惱的是三年前轉公司時,從舊公司拿走的公積金加補水大約150萬元,當時這筆錢過戶到銀行戶口後,因希望多一點點定期利息,希望轉換銀行,在搞轉 帳手續時被銀行職員說服買入債券基金。當時的債券基金計劃是每個月有5000元的現金流,期後因為減了一點利率,只能每月得到4000多元。

前 輩發現,每月拿5000元,原來拿了一年多都只是幾萬元,整筆錢的帳面價又沒有升跌,好像沒太多著數,因此希望可以在財務上整固一下。其實,前輩還討論了 不少想法,包括他看財經報章,認為哪份報章可信,哪份不可信,從可信的報章中歸納了對後市的估計,例如年初的大時代如何發展,爆升股在何時購買等。

會 面時,前輩坦言買賣股票總是輸多贏少,自己最大的資產就是接近供完的自住物業與這份150萬元的公積金。當知道我收息也年年六位數字時,心中仍以為向我拿 些股票號碼即能發財。後來聽我分享一些財務自由、持有資產、現金流的概念之後,感覺到他對股票投資的理解有所改變,相信他回去會好好思考。

時至今日,他於另一家地產公司工作,中港兩邊飛,其工作亦不穩定,公司隨時清盤。公司內的員工心態都是盡快賺最多錢就算,無心戀戰。兩年合約後,不知下次有否機會續約,這樣的工作環境,對於今年50多歲的專業人士,其實不好受,但生活就是這樣,頗感無奈。

其 實我對前輩今天的處境也有所感慨,他是我尊敬的前輩之一,在事途上至少先走我十年以上。無論計算今天的人工也好,累積的收入也好,以及人生練歷,他都絕對 比我多很多。十多年過去,今天他反過來向我請教財務知識,當然我沒有資格教導他人,盡量只能分享,但實不相瞞,我的確看見大家在財務知識上有一段距離。

香 港地,靠雙手努力賺錢的有很多人,不少人工作幹得也不錯,賺很多錢。可惜,說到財務知識這話題,不足就是不足,無論在事途上有多少練歷,如何薪高糧準,教 育體系就是沒有好好教導這部份。大家還記得高官許仕仁案如何令人震驚嗎?我指的是許生的財商低得可怕,個人理財可謂一團糟。

我們不用追求 高深的財務計算,不用每個投資者都先讀個財務學博士,但至少於財務上,不需要假手於人。自己花掉精神、時間、生活、自由去拼命搵錢,賺到的錢就交給別人管 理,最後只是在供養一眾管理人,這樣值得嗎?簡單地學習,令自己有足夠能力了解所投資的東西,達至財務自由,這些計劃目標其實不太難。

http://www.quamnet.com/newscolumnistcontent.action?articleId=4425943

Careplus - The Eye of The Dragons

Careplus Group Berhad (Carepls - 0163) is one of the smaller company that is involved in the manufacturing rubber and synthetic gloves. The group also manufacture non-woven disposable such face mask, surgical gowns, caps and show covers.

With a total market capitalization of just RM 183million, and a strong rising USD, where will this lead for Careplus ?

Careplus had went through a series of corporate exercise which saw bonus issue and enlarge share capital. Currently, Careplus had a total of 364.24 million of outstanding shares issued at par value of RM 0.10.

Despite the latest equity shake up from the board weaker market, Careplus had remained resilient on it's share price, consolidating well at the range of RM 0.50. A good break out with substantial volume will be seeing Careplus challenging new heights in the coming day. A quick look out will see Careplus putting a good easy challenge at quick resistance of RM 0.55.

Stronger USD really matters

It is common sense to see glove makers have a better profit margin from a stronger USD against the MYR since glove products are traded in USD.
After retreating back from a high of almost RM 4.45 to 1 USD, the greenback continue it's warpath journey upwards, with the latest conversion at RM 4.28 to 1 USD. The expectation from the Federal Reserve of United States in raising the interest rate had been increasingly sought after as Janet Yellen had indicated a raise since 2014. The gradual raise of the interest rate by Feds will result in an even stronger USD against MYR.

The cheaper oil price will also give a bigger margin on synthetic gloves as raw material cost comes cheaper. Hence, glove makers are seeing a double boost from a stronger forex gain and cheaper material input.

Rising Demand on Gloves

The gloves industry will continue more demand in the nitrile gloves where healthcare continue to improve. According to research company PR Newswire, the improvement of healthcare in the US and Europe will continue to drive up nitrile gloves demand, where Malaysia is the top world largest supplier of rubber gloves, commanding two third of the global market share.

The key factor driving up the global glove demand is from the rising number of aging population, increasing healthcare expenditure, accelerating awareness on hygiene and healthcare reforms with more stringent regulations, improvement of global economic growth and increasing potential in emerging markets.

With all the key driving forces behind, key player such as Top Glove, Hartalega, Kossan and Supermax had each allocated a capex of approximately RM 150m to RM 400m for expansion activity, which includes M&A. This will be seeing approximately RM 1.5 billion ready to be reinvested into the gloves industry.

Careplus - A Prime Target from the Dragons

Emerging glove makers that are still growing will probably see good offer knocking from the bigger player. Currently, the smaller player in the listed market is Esceram (Market Cap - RM 113 million), Careplus (Market Cap - RM 183 million) and Comfort (Market Cap - RM 350 million). The potential target for the M&A will be Esceram and Careplus, given their market capitalization of below RM 250 million.

According to the latest budget, rubber glove manufacturers will be the prime beneficiaries in view of the proposal for a Special Reinvestment Allowance (RA) Incentive for companies that have exhausted their eligibility to qualify for RA. The rate of claim is at 60% of qualifying capex and can be set off against 70% of statutory income from year of assessment 2016 to 2018. This had open a good window for the Big 4 to secure their next big expansion.

According to close sources, Careplus is currently being courted by Top Gloves and Hartalega on a possible take over. Top Glove had publicly announced on their next route of action which will see M&A to grow it's business. Top Glove is ready to spend up to RM 400 million in M&A activities on businesses that is of the similar or related industry. However, the competition will not be easy for Top Glove with the presence of Hartalega as well as possible turn up from Kossan and Supermax.

Should Top Glove spend RM 400 million on Careplus, that will see Careplus worth approximately RM 0.785.(RM 400 million / 510 million shares *assuming Careplus-wa are fully exercised)

As of lately, Careplus major shareholder, Lim Kwee Shyan had been seen actively converting Careplus-WA into mother share.


Conclusion

Careplus will be a very interesting company to be look at. Given the stronger USD, the fastest manner to capitalized this opportunity is through M&A.
- Careplus to benefit from stronger USD
- Cheaper oil price will see cheaper manufacturing cost on synthetic gloves, hence higher profit margin 
- Gloves market continue to see demand driven up by key factor such as increasing healthcare expenditure, accelerating awareness on hygiene and growing emerging market opportunity.
- Careplus manufactures face mask will see demand to 1Q of 2016  in affected country by the haze situation.
- Careplus is prime target for M&A activities by Top Gloves. Top Gloves capex of RM 400 million will see Careplus worth RM 0.785 a share
- 2016 to 2018 as being a good year for Rubber Makers to see reinvestment under Budget 2016

Ride the wagon? You decide.
Bone's short term TP : RM 0.60

Cheers and have a nice day

Regards
Bone

HITnRUN last time there was a kok guy published a similar report on Mieco to be took over by SYF and the price went up a day to 1.20 and then, as expected, volume sell and slide to 80sen....syndicate play, what else?

28/10/2015 11:00

JT Yeo if Careplus nta sits at 20 cents, why would glove companies pay them 60 cents, unless they have some patent or proprietary technology?

Yes acquiring is faster than building a new plants & equipment, but dont see how they want to pay such skyhigh price for it.

28/10/2015 10:37


RicheHo CAREPLUS had a net exposure of MYR15.7m to USD. Supposingly, it is able to benefit from strengthening of USD, but CAREPLUS had fully hedged its USD currency risk by forward currency contracts. In short, CAREPLUS will not gain anything from it no matter how much USD appreciate against MYR.

Secondly, CAREPLUS revenue on FY14 was MYR152m. However, its major customer A had contributed MYR112m in it, which is equivalent to 73.7%! In other words, CAREPLUS revenue is mainly depends on customer A! If one day customer A no longer want to extend contract with CAREPLUS, imagine how big the effect will be! There are few glove manufacturer listed companies in Malaysia, such as Hartalega, Top Glove, etc.. And, CAREPLUS has a production capacity of less than 10% of the world’s biggest glove maker, Top Glove. Definitely, it is possible for its customer A to change supplier.

28/10/2015 08:48

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bonescythe/85173.jsp