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Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Finding Out What Works, And What Doesn’t Work


Many traders who try system trading have previously had difficulty at discretionary or manual trading. Most of these folks eventually recognize the benefit of trading a system with well defined rules – a system that has performed well in the past. It is nice to know a trading approach has historically worked, but as with all things related to trading, past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Unfortunately, many people who try systematic/algorithmic/mechanical/rule-based trading for the first time bring along a lot of the baggage that they have acquired from their previous method. Depending on the pre-conceived notions they bring into mechanical trading, these new systematic traders may run into a lot of frustration and trouble.
Many times, for example, traders will always test with a few core concepts, such as always closing by the end of the day. This is what they were used to as a discretionary or manual trader, and therefore they never even think to test ideas out of their old comfort zone. Perhaps removing these “comfort” rules would dramatically improve performance.
In this article, I will examine three common items that new systematic traders test, and see how these items actually work when they are subjected to rigorous testing.

Ground Rules

In all the testing that follows, I will test in 7 different markets, across a range of commodities:
  • Wheat (W)
  • 10 Year Treasury Notes (TY)
  • Lean Hogs (LH)
  • Australian Dollar (AD)
  • Heating Oil (HO)
  • Cotton (CT)
  • e-mini Nasdaq (NQ)
I picked these at random, one from each major market group. The test period will be from 1/1/2007 to 12/31/2011, a 5 year period that includes some quiet, and some very chaotic, markets.
Finally, I will assume $5 round turn commissions, and $30 round turn slippage. The $30 slippage might be excessive, but I’ve always found it is better to be conservative than to underestimate slippage. I’d rather not be disappointed in real time with larger than expected slippage.

The System

I will use an extremely simple strategy for the tests I am running: a simple breakout based on closing prices. The system is always long or short, and will enter at the next bar open, long if the close is the highest close of the past X bars, and short if the close if the lowest close of the last X bars. One version of the system always exits at the end of the day, and the other version is a swing system. X will be varied from 5 bars to 100 bars.
Here is the code for the swing version, Strategy A:
Figure 1
Here is the code for the day trading version, Strategy B:
Figure 2
Figure 2

Day, or Night?

Since most markets these days run nearly 24 hours, we can run into issues when testing historically, as many markets traded “pit” hours years ago. Because of that, and because most of the volume is during these traditional pit hours, I will use the old pit session times, but still use electronic trading data.

Exit 1 Minute Before Close

If you use Tradestation to test, you may be familiar with their keyword “setexitonclose.” This is a neat function for backtesting, but in live trading the order is sent after the market is closed, rendering it ineffective. So, I set up the custom sessions above to exit 1 minute before the old “pit” closing time. Then, I know my strategy will exit properly, and will therefore work in backtest and in real time.

Final Pre-Test Info

Now that we have everything properly setup, it is time to run some tests. For each instrument given above, I will run tests with 5, 15, 30, 60, 120 and Daily bars. That gives us 7 instruments x 6 bar sizes = 42 tests. Then, for each test, I will run the breakout length X from 5-100 in steps of 1, which yields 96 iterations per test. Since I am running 2 strategies overall, I am running 42 x 96 x 2 = 8,064 unique performance sets.
For each of the 42 tests for each strategy, I will record the best Net Profit (out of the 96 iterations) and its corresponding maximum drawdown (if best Net Profit is greater than zero). For each of the 42 tests, I will also record the percentage of iterations that are profitable.
All the tests being run are shown graphically in Figure 3.
Figure 3
Figure 3

Questions To Answer

Once all the tests are run, I will see if I can answer the three questions below. These questions are directly related to the desires of many discretionary day traders.
  1. Many traders love strategies that are the same across multiple instruments. An example of this is price action trading – many feel the principles of price action hold across all instruments. So, when these traders test algorithms, one demand is that a strategy is viable ONLY if it is profitable across many instruments. Question: Is multiple market profitability a reasonable requirement?
  2. Most day traders need to be out by the end of the day. Question: Does forcing an exit at the end of each day improve or decrease strategy performance?
  3. Many day traders try to go for the smallest (shortest) bar size possible. The theory is that trades will be more frequent, losses will be smaller, and exits will be more responsive to market conditions. Question: What kind of impact does bar size have on performance?
Before I get to the results, I should point out that this is one study, with two strategies, across only seven markets. So, the conclusions I reach may not hold up over all markets, and may be different for different strategies. I’m guessing, though, that the conclusions probably do hold in general.


Results of all 8,046 performance tests are shown in Table 1 for the swing Strategy A, and Table 2 for the intraday Strategy B. I will refer to these results as I discuss each of the three questions.
Table 1
Table 1

Table 2
Table 2
1. Is profitably across multiple instruments a reasonable requirement?
Figures 4 and 5 show the best case Net Profit for both the swing and intraday version of the strategy. With one notable exception (Heating Oil intraday trading), what is good in one market is generally good in another market. Although the maximum profit varies wildly from market to market, all the swing markets are profitable, and all but one of the intraday markets are unprofitable. This should give you some confidence that the strategy is sound (or not). Of course, it doesn’t mean the strategy is tradable in each market, since I am looking only at maximum net profit based on optimization. But, clearly the intraday Strategy B is not viable in most markets.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Figure 5
Figure 5
So, the results show that profitably across multiple markets is possible, even with markedly different instrument, suggesting that is indeed a valid requirement.
2. Is exiting end of day (intraday trading) a good idea?
Figure 5 shows the answer loud and clear – the answer is no. You’ll get more profit by swing trading. Unfortunately, it might also mean enduring more drawdowns, but think of it like this: the market “pays” people for holding overnight and weekends, and taking on that risk.
3. Are shorter timeframes better?
Since Strategy A is clearly the better strategy, I will use those results to look at the impact of bar length (timeframe). This is shown in Figure 6, where I look at the percent of iterations that were profitable for each combination of instrument and bar size. So, for example, Wheat with 5 minute bars shows that 62% of iterations were profitable (denoted with a red circle in Figure 6). This means that as I varied the breakout length from 5 to 100 in increments of 1 (96 total iterations), 60 of those runs resulted in a profitable end result. Obviously, the best case is 100% – where no matter what value you use for breakout length, the end result is positive.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Results of Figure 6 show that in general profitability increases as the bar length increases, although this effect is not very pronounced, and it does not hold for all instruments. This is confirmed by the results of Figure 4, where the maximum Net Profit generally increase with increasing bar period, but not dramatically.
Why is this so? Profitability could be better as bar period increases, since random market noise plays a smaller role in longer period bars (i.e., the true trend is more easily seen in larger period bars). Of course, drawdown should also be considered when looking at bar size, but in this study it does not seem to change greatly with bar size.


Results with this simple strategy lead to three conclusions:
  1. Striving for profit in multiple markets, as a confirmation of a strategy, is indeed possible.
  2. Swing trading is likely more profitable than intraday trading.
  3. Longer timeframes are generally superior to short time periods, but this is not a major effect.

Follow On

Of course, I made these conclusions based on one study. What if the strategy was different? What if the timeframes or markets were different? What if different years were used for the test period? Will the conclusions reached here still hold? I’ll examine those questions in Part 2.
If you would like to learn more about building trading systems be sure to get a copy of my latest book, Building Winning Algorithmic Trading Systems.


Breakout Strategies (TradeStation ELD)
Breakout Strategies WorkSpace (TradeStation TWS)

— Kevin J. Davey of KJ Trading Systems

Resintech diversifies into rubber plantation


SHAH ALAM: Resintech Bhd, a manufacturer of various PVC and polyethylene products, is venturing into rubber plantation via a joint venture in Cambodia as part of its plan to diversify its income stream.

"We are slowly going into plantation side," said its managing director Datuk Teh Kim Poo, who noted that its rubber plantation project is currently at planting stage.
Teh said the group expects to see contributions from rubber plantation within the next five to six years.

Two years ago, the group signed a 70-year joint-venture agreement with an agriculture company in Cambodia to develop 6,000ha of agriculture land with 10:90 ratio between Resintech and the Cambodian company.

Teh noted that the group will maintain its core business in manufacturing but will slowly build up its agricultural segment in Cambodia.

Manufacturing and trading of diversified range of plastic pipes, water tanks and fittings is the group's main business, contributing more than 95% to its revenue.
Resintech has manufacturing facilities in Klang, Selangor; Kuching, Sarawak; and Kota Kinabalu, Sabah.

"We are continuing with our business as usual, our core business in the plastic industry, which is mainly all sort of piping systems as well as tanks," he said.

"On the plantation side, we just hope that rubber in the next few years may be good according to sources that we have seen," Teh said, adding that rubber price has a potential to increase as not many countries are producing it currently.

Teh added that the group also exports its industrial, construction and infrastructure materials to neighboring countries, including Indonesia, Myanmar, Cambodia and Vietnam, where the exports sales contributes 15%-20% to the group's revenue and 75%-80% from its domestic sales.

Resintech saw a net profit of RM618,000 in the first quarter ended June 30, 2014 compared to RM568,000 a year earlier. Revenue hit RM25.03 million, up 19.7%, from RM20.89 million before.

"We hope to improve every year in our financial year," he said.

Nomura has ‘buy’ tag on Mah Sing


NOMURA Research says Mah Sing Group Bhd deserves premium valuations, given its industry-leading sales performance.

“Mah Sing compares favourably with much larger capitalised Malaysian developers, with its management’s new property sales target of RM3.6 billion for financial year (FY) 2014 and sales of RM3 billion in FY2013.

“Its revenue visibility of more than four years is one of the highest in the sector. By end of FY2014, we expect Mah Sing’s unbilled sales to help it ride out the short-term down-cycle with steady earnings,” Nomura said.

The research house said first-half new sales were at RM1.5 billion, 42 per cent of the full-year target, suggesting that the company is on track to meet its full-year goals.

“In addition, as of the first half, Mah Sing’s unbilled sales stood at RM4.8 billion, three times its annual revenue.”

Nomura noted that Mah Sing’s price/book multiples should approach a historical peak of two times, given the sector’s leading earnings growth return on equity of about 17 per cent.

“Mah Sing is geographically diversified, with only a small exposure to the Iskandar Malaysia region and that too in the Medini zone, which is performing much better in the current slowdown compared with the rest of the Johor state.”

The research house said Mah Sing’s strategy of a quick landbank-to-house development cycle and the ability to adapt product offering of high rise, landed, commercial or price points to suit market demand will help it ride out boom-and-bust cycles relatively better.

“Accordingly, we value Mah Sing at a 25 per cent discount to revalued net asset value, which is narrower than the sector’s 40 per cent.

“We initiate a ‘buy’ rating on Mah Sing. It is our top pick, with a target price of RM3,” Nomura said.

Nam Cheong to take 30% stake in Indonesian shipping company for US$30.7mil


KUALA LUMPUR: Singapore-listed Nam Cheong Ltd will invest US$30.7mil to acquire about 30% of the enlarged share capital of Indonesian shipping company, PT Pelayaran Nasional Bina Buana Raya Tbk (BBR).
Nam Cheong, which has its headquarters in Kuala Lumpur, is Malaysia's largest offshore support vessel (OSV) builder, while BBR is an indirect subsidiary of Marco Polo Marine Ltd (MPML).
In a statement today, the group said it had entered into a binding Heads of Agreement with MPML to subscribe 1.6 million new shares in the BBR rights issue at an issue price of 230 rupiah a share and to be funded through internal resources.
BBR will utilise part of the proceeds to purchase five small and mid-sized OSVs, which are appropriate for plying Indonesian waters from Nam Cheong for US$85.0 million, it added.
Nam Cheong said this was the second significant initiative undertaken by it to further extend its interests in the Indonesian oil-and-gas market. The move comes after a joint venture in Indonesia in September 2013 to own, operate and charter marine vessels.
Nam Cheong's CEO Leong Seng Keat said investing in BBR would provide the company with the platform to gain a foothold in the cabotage-protected Indonesia market, given BBR's extensive network and strong presence in the country.
He said the investment had not only increased the company's vessel sales but also laid the groundwork for potential future vessel purchases by BBR from the group.
"With this solid working relationship in place, we believe it will strengthen our position in vessel chartering in Indonesia by further enhancing our presence in this vibrant market," Leong added.
The vessel chartering business segment remains a small, yet important, and fast growing part of Nam Cheong's operations.
With 15 vessels for chartering to date, Nam Cheong said it is in a strong position to tap the increasing regional vessel chartering opportunities. – Bernama 

SBC and M'sian born tycoon Ong team up in Hard Rock venture


PETALING JAYA: SBC Corp Bhd said it will work with a firm linked to Malaysian-born, Singapore-based property tycoon Ong Beng Seng to develop a Hard Rock Hotel, believed to be located in Kota Kinabalu, Sabah.
The group yesterday inked a heads of agreement (HOA) with hotel operator HPL Hotels & Resorts Pte Ltd, a wholly owned unit of Ong’s Singapore main board-listed Hotel Properties Ltd.
According to SBC, HPL Hotels & Resorts has expressed interest in purchasing the hotel directly or through its nominee for a sum of between RM180mil and RM200mil.
“The objective of the HOA is to set out the preliminary understanding of the parties regarding the principal terms of the sale and purchase agreement that will be entered into by all the parties in due course,” it said in a filing.
The HOA expires on Jan 31, 2015. Under the pact, SBC is to obtain the building approvals and see the hotel through to completion.
According to its website, HPL Hotels & Resorts currently manages 12 hotels and resorts, with a total of 2,934 rooms.
These include the Concorde chain of hotels in Kuala Lumpur, Shah Alam, the KL International Airport and Singapore.
It also manages Hard Rock Hotels in Bali, Pattaya and Penang, the luxury Gili Lankanfushi in the Maldives, and boutique hotels Casa del Mar Langkawi, Casa del Rio Melaka and The Lakehouse Cameron Highlands.
Other hotel brands within the group are Four Seasons Hotels & Resorts, Hilton International and Le Meridien.
Ong, whose storied empire spans classy hotels, a securities firm and franchises for Haagen-Dazs ice-cream, Planet Hollywood and Hard Rock Cafe in several Asian countries, is founder and managing director of Hotel Properties.
The HOA extends SBC’s reach in Kota Kinabalu, where it is currently developing the RM1.8bil seafronting Jesselton Quay project.
The 16-acre Jesselton Quay includes commercial suites, a mall, retail units, office towers and a hotel in three precincts.

SLP sees rising revenue


GEORGE TOWN: Plastic packaging manufacturer SLP Resources Bhd plans to double the contribution of polyethylene (PE)-based thin-gauge plastic packaging materials to its revenue in 2015 from about 16% presently.
Group managing director Kelvin Khaw told StarBiz that the group planned to add another eight production lines by 2015 to increase its total production lines at its Kulim manufacturing facility to 55 from 47 currently.
“Six new lines will be installed this year,” he said.
The materials are in demand from the consumer and retailing industries in Japan, New Zealand, and Australia, as they provide cost-savings of about 25% to the customers, given the reduced raw materials used in production, according to Khaw.
The new materials are marketed under the Maxinflax, according to Khaw.
“We are forecasting more sales from overseas in view of re-stocking activities and the forthcoming festive holidays in the final quarter of 2014.
“The materials should help us to raise the contribution from overseas sales to 70% by 2017 from 50% in 2014,” he said.
Khaw said it was necessary to produce the new range of packaging solutions given the rising cost of operations and high raw material prices.
Resin prices are now hovering between US$1,600 and US$1,750 per tonne compared with US$1,500 in June 2013.
“Due to strong oil prices of about US$100 per barrel, resin prices are to stay stable within the US$1,600 and US$1,750 per tonne range, provided the political situation in the Ukraine and the Middle-East do not worsen,” Khaw said.
Khaw said the production output of plastic packaging materials this year should exceed 32,000 tonnes this year, compared to 28,000 last year. In the first half of 2014, the group’s revenue improved by 16% compared with the same period a year ago, backed by domestic and overseas sales, with Malaysia being the the largest market.
“Malaysia remained the largest market in the first half of 2014, making up 50% of group revenue, with Japan in second place with 26.4% contribution,” he said.
For the first six months of 2014, the group posted RM5mil in net profit on the back of RM89.9mil in turnover, compared to RM4.9mil and RM77.5mil in the same period of 2013.
According to the UK-based research and consulting firm, GlobalData, worldwide polyethylene demand is forecast to rise by about 3.7% per annum between 2013 and 2018.
This higher-than-historic increase will occur in the United States and Europe, GlobalData’s latest report says.
“The US will witness a 2.4% growth rate per annum during the forecast period, a marked increase compared to its 0.7% levels from 2003 to 2013.
“Demand in Europe, primarily in Russia, will meanwhile climb at 2.8% per year from 2013 to 2018, almost three times the level of growth during the last decade.
“These demand rises in the US and Russia will somewhat offset lower demand in Asia.
“A lower increase of 4.8% in Asia is predicted over the 2013 to 2018 period, compared to its 6% rate during 2003-2013, due primarily to the region’s slower economic growth,” the report added.

Weida bids to build 218 telecom towers


KUCHING: Weida (M) Bhd, which has built more than 360 telecommunication towers, has bidded to construct 218 new towers for the federal government in rural Sarawak and Sabah.
Group managing director Datuk Lee Choon Chin said Weida, via its strategic partnership with network facility provider (NFP) licensees, had tendered for contracts to build 149 and 69 new telecommunication towers in Sarawak and Sabah respectively for the Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission (MCMC).
Tenders for the construction of these new towers, which closed about five months ago, are expected to be awarded soon. The proposed 218 new towers are part of the 400 to be built nationwide.
The federal government announced last year a budget of RM1.5bil to fund the construction of 1,000 such towers under the next phase of MCMC Time 3 extension programme to widen cellular coverage and Internet accessibility.
According to MCMC director Adiman Ajem, the proposed 149 towers in Sarawak would cost RM200mil, and these were expected to be completed later this year or next year. There are currently some 900 such towers in Sarawak.
Lee said based on Weida group’s large net cash position and its vast experience in rolling out telecommunication towers in rural areas in Sabah and Sarawak, the group was confident of securing a “considerable part” of the contracts for the new towers to be built in Sabah and Sarawak.
The group has cash reserve of RM245mil.
“Weida group has completed and handed over 362 telecommunication towers. As a leading turnkey builder of telecommunication towers in Sabah and Sarawak, we are well positioned to be a major beneficiary of the Time 3 programme,” he toldStarBiz after the company’s AGM on Friday.

Singapore bourse to start kilobar gold trading to lure investors


Singapore Exchange, Southeast Asia’s biggest bourse operator, will start trading a kilobar gold contract next month as it joins other nations in the biggest consuming region in a push for new price benchmarks.

The wholesale contract for 25 kilograms of 99.99% purity will start trading at 8:15 a.m. on Oct. 13, according to a joint statement from the exchange, IE Singapore, the World Gold Council and the Singapore Bullion Market Association. The group said in June that trading may begin as soon as September.

The Shanghai Gold Exchange started bullion trading in the city’s free-trade zone on Sept. 18, while CME Group Inc. is planning a physically-delivered futures contract in Hong Kong in the fourth quarter as global demand shifts from the West to the East. Asia accounted for 63% of total consumption of gold jewelry, bars and coins last year, with China overtaking India as the biggest buyer, according to the council.

“The launch of the Singapore contract, in addition to what has happened in Shanghai, is a reflection of the importance of Asia to the global gold market,” Albert Cheng, managing director for the Far East at the London-based council, said in an interview today.

Gold for immediate delivery is heading for the first quarterly loss this year as prospects for higher U.S. interest rates reduce the appeal of the metal as a store of value. The metal traded at US$1,219.58 ($1,555.57) an ounce by 4:19 p.m. in Singapore, set for a 8.1% decline since the end of June, according to Bloomberg generic pricing.

Good Delivery
The government is promoting Singapore as a center for precious metals after removing 7% goods and services tax on investment-grade gold, silver and platinum in October 2012. Sixteen brands, including bars from Metalor Technologies SA’s refinery in Singapore, have been approved for so-called good delivery for the new contract, according to Cheng, who is also the secretary of the Singapore Bullion Market Association.

The four market makers, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of Nova Scotia, Standard Bank Plc and Standard Chartered Plc, will be required to hold 2 metric tons of gold in Singapore and another 2 tons in the region, Cheng said today.

“Multi-center pricing mechanisms will feed into each other and in the long term, will create a more efficient market and be beneficial to the end user, whether it’s jewelry manufacturers or investors,” said Cheng.

Monday, September 29, 2014



2014-09-28 19:00



































































Sunday, September 28, 2014

A Very Simple and Effective Approach to Investing - Forbes


From Detergent To Driverless Cars: Stock Picking Lessons From 60 Years On (And Off) The Street

Investors, entrepreneurs and financial journalists alike are obsessed with what the rise of the Millennial generation will mean for the future of money. Yet, a conversation with an industry veteran served as a reminder that looking back can be just as important as looking forward — even in stock picking.

Gail Winslow has worked in the wealth management industry for 59 and 1/2 years — “to be exact.” She got her start as a Girl Friday — a term coined in 1940 for what we now know as an executive assistant. A Radcliff educated go-getter, Winslow quickly tired of “doing all the dirty work” at D.C. based Ferris and Company so six months in she became a Registered Representative of the New York Stock Exchange. Today, Winslow is 84 and manages close to $200 million worth of assets at RBC Wealth Management, mostly working with clients nearing retirement age (though Winslow proves that is not always synonymous with nearing retirement).

A lot has changed during her six-decade career. To name just one: the S&P 500 finished 1955 at 45.5 points. This summer it crossed 2,000 for the first time. Nevertheless, when choosing stocks Winslow continues to depend on a few faithful principles she learned long ago – many of these drawn from unexpected sources like her mother-in-law, the hair care aisle of the drug store and her washing machine.

Sometime in the early 1960s Winslow called her mother-in-law to suggest she sell some stock. The market was getting “toppy.” Her mother-in-law pulled out her portfolio and asked, “Do you think Chase Manhattan is going to cut their dividend?” Winslow said no. “Do you think General Motors is going to cut their dividend?” No again. They went through every holding before the older woman declared, “I think I’ll just continue to hold.”

(For what it is worth, in 2000, Chase merged with J.P. Morgan, forming mega bank JPMorgan Chase. The company still pays a dividend; its most recent payout was 40 cents a share. For its part, General Motors cut its long standing dividend in June 2008 part of an attempt to save money before its 2009 bankruptcy. A quarterly dividend was reinstated earlier this year at 30 cents a share.)

Looking back, Winslow says in that moment she learned that income is the difference between a speculator and an investor. “Investors say they want their stocks to go up,” says Winslow, “but they really don’t want them to go down.”
Winslow knew innately that women of the day were largely conservative, and with just one other female in the office, found herself uniquely qualified to help Washington’s high power women — researchers at the National Institute of Health, high ranking women in the military and wives of Senators (the nation had just one female senator in the 1960s). “They didn’t want to lose what they had. So I dealt early on with large American corporations that had proven track records.”

When Winslow got her start members of the Baby Boomer generation (born 1946 to 1964) were entering their teenage years. They liked, “Toni Home Permanents,” – hair perms – “bathing suits, potato chips, Frito Lay and Gillette.” Products, she says, that mothers were buying for their teens or helping them use. With 10,000 Baby Boomers now turning 65 each day Winslow is drawn to health care stocks and senior housing REITs.

These days Winslow also looks to the generation of 80 million born after 1980 for inspiration – the Millennials. With Millennials reluctant to purchase homes, Winslow is wary of housing stocks but intrigued by the rental industry. Pointing out that in her day “you put a cigarette in your mouth at 14,” she notes that young people today are health conscious, so avoids cigarette companies and looks to food companies that seem to be taking advantage of trends toward nutritious and natural.

Another thing Millennials love? Technology — and Winslow is a fan too. She has held Intel, Microsoft and IBM for decades. Apple has been in her portfolio for 15 years. (Apple shares are up 3,600% since September 1999.) Winslow is currently intrigued by driverless cars and other technologies that improve safety. For Winslow though, technology does not include just computer companies and complex software.

"Early on in the 50s new products came out and many of them were products used by women in the home – including detergent,” recalls Winslow. “Before that we used ivory soap which we squashed around and which left scum. When Tide came out I thought, ‘wow, is this great.’”

While she is still a fan of dividend payers for her contemporaries, she tells her grandchildren and their fellow Millennials to look for stocks with increasing earnings. Management, she says, should be investing profits back into company growth rather than paying out a high percentage in dividends.

An article from Forbes 






生於1928 年的褚時健出生在一個農民的家庭。
1955 年27 歲的褚時健擔任了雲南玉溪地區行署人事科科長。
31 歲時被打成右派,帶著妻子和唯一的女兒下農場參加勞動改造。
文革結束後,1979 年褚時健接手玉溪捲菸廠,出任廠長。
那年他51 歲!扛下了這份重任。
思考:而我們現在有很多2、30 歲的人已經不想工作,
到40 歲已經覺得這一生的奮鬥結束了。
褚時健的奮鬥故事51 歲才剛剛開始。


經過褚時健和他的團隊經過18 年的努力,
成為了地方財政的支柱,18 年的時間共為國家創稅收991 億。
在1999 年因為經濟問題被判無期徒刑(後來改判有期徒刑17 年),
那年的褚時健已經71 歲。當從一個紅透半邊天的國企紅人,
執政了18 年的紅塔集團的全國風雲人物一下子變成階下囚,



後來他承包了2400 畝的荒地種橙子。那年他74 歲。

他居然承包了2400 畝山地種橙子,橙子掛果要6 年,
他那時已經是75 歲的老人了,你想像一下,
一個75 歲的老人,戴著一個大墨鏡,穿著破圓領衫,
興致勃勃地跟我談論橙子6 年後掛果是什麼情景。
戴著草帽,興致勃勃的談論6 年後橙子掛果的75 歲褚時健。
6 年後,他已經是81 歲的高齡。
而且他種的冰糖臍橙在雲南1 公斤8 塊錢你都買不到,


言談之間,他自然地談到了一個核心的問題:2400 畝的荒山如何管理?
他制定了激勵機制:一個農民只要任務完成,就能領上4000 塊錢,年終獎金2000 多塊,
這個已經85 歲的老人,把跌倒當成了爬起,面對人生的波瀾,他流過淚,也曾黯然神傷。


This undercovered GEM has more than 50% UPSIDE!


This gem has been undervalued for far too long. It goes back to 2008, before the emergence of Mark Mobius in 2010 as a shareholder. Yes, it is none other but Mark Mobius himself, the famous fund manager of Franklin Templeton, the executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group. Mark Mobius was so impressed with KSL after meetings with the key management and bought a 5% stake into it. He then promised to hold the stock for very long term, seeing that it was so undervalued at PE of less than 5 times, with high growth potential and recurring income. This was followed by Public Mutual and Julius Baer with significant stakes held until today. In the last two months, some have taken notice of it, but it is still very undervalued.

Today, unlike in 2010, KSL has high level of recurring incomes, thanks to its prudent managemnt, who built KSL City Mall and Resort during the financial crisis. For FY 2013, recurring income was RM135mn, with 15% growth expected for the next three years. Recurring EPS was 15sen and recurring FY 2015f EPS is 20sen. Assuming 6% yield, its investment properties are worth RM1.3bn or RM3.33 per share. At current price of 4.66, its property development business is selling at RM1.33 or RM519mn only. With RM519mn, you can own more than 2,000 acres of land in Johor and Klang Valley worth more than RM10bn GDV. The 446acres land at Klang alone is worth more than RM1bn. If this is not undervalued, I don’t know what your definition is for undervalued!

KSL management is smart, and they knew it is not yet the right time to do a REIT offering as the mall and resort is still recording double digit growth. Probbly next year or 2016 is the best time. Furthermore, recurring income is expected to MORE THAN DOUBLE after the completion of KSL City Mall 2 in Klang, due to start construction next year. With over 1.8mn retail space, the new mall is 3 TIMES the size of KSL City Mall in Johor.

Having been undervalued for more than 5 years, KSL finally started to move in July this year, thanks to articles by The Edge and The Star and a report by Kenanga. The gem, having been uncovered, still has not yet reached its fair value! Why? This is because it is still undercovered! Only Kenanga, the most enterprising research house today, came out with a fair value, at RM6.63, a 50% discount to its RNAV of over RM13.

The longer a stock is undervalued, the longer and higher it will go in order to reach its fair value. A good example is Scientex. The stock has been selling at only 5x PER for several years and after being discovered, it promptly move up. But not in several days or months. After more than 1 year, it is now selling near its fair value. Today, Scientex is selling at 2.2x P/B and 12x PER.

It is time to revise my target price for KSL. Assuming 2014 EPS of 72 sen, the fair value for KSL is between RM7.20 and RM8.64 with PER of 10-12x. My forecast for EPS is conservative, judging its unbilled sales of RM1bn (RM1.5bn by year end) which ensure earnings for more than 2.5 years. Another catalyst is dividend. At 30% dividend payout, yield is very high, at 4.5%, for a property developer! Both unbilled sales and dividend yield are better than Mah Sing, though the latter is already impressive.

KSL should be selling at more than 10x PER due to its high returns and profit margins, earnings visibility and increased recognition after the management opened up to fund managers and analysts. With target price of RM7.20 to RM8.64, KSL offers upside of more than 50% to the patient investors.

Earlier article

Saturday, September 27, 2014

HSBC expects robust growth, as global demand accelerates


KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia's economic activity is expected to be robust over the coming year as global demand accelerates, according to the latest HSBC Global Connections Report.

Trade flows into Malaysia are expected to strengthen with respondents holding a broadly positive outlook over the next six months, according to HSBC's Trade Confidence Index (TCI) survey.

The HSBC TCI surveyed a total of 23 markets, compiling six-month views of 5,200 exporters, importers and traders from small and mid-market enterprises on trade volume, buyer and supplier risks, the need for trade finance, access to trade finance and impact of foreign exchange on their businesses.

The index decreased three points to 110 since the first half of 2014, but remained above the 100 threshold, pointing to a positive outlook for trade prospects in the country.

HSBC Bank Malaysia Bhd head of global trade and receivable finance Vincent Sugianto said despite the short term concerns, the country's business environment has improved dramatically, as Asia continues to offer opportunities for businesses.

Some 81% of respondents from the survey has identified Asia as the best opportunities for growth over the next six months.

He said China will strengthen its position as Malaysia's largest trade partner for the long term with export growth in excess of 12% per annum is expected until 2030.

Growth in imports of industrial machinery contributes 30% of total export growth in 2014 to 2030, as government continues to invest in large infrastructure projects to achieve developed economy status by 2020.

"Asia remains a key trade focus for Malaysia as the region emerges stronger than ever. As Malaysia drives towards achieving a developed economy status by 2020, our position in Asia's growth story will only continue," he said.

Energy exports are expected to fuel the country's trade growth in the long run and is expected to grow by 5.3% per annum from 2014 to 2030. Malaysia will continue to strengthen its position as a major international hub for oil and gas production.

"Malaysia is a strategic location with a rich supply of oil and natural gas. As energy demands continue to rise both within Asia and globally, Malaysia will be able to take advantage of this to continue solidifying our position on the global market," said its head of project finance Michael Cooper.

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3-pronged growth for Deleum


DELEUM Bhd is ready to move forward with its next phase of growth after a period of consolidation.
Group managing director Nan Yusri Nan Rahimy explains that the group, which has implemented a series of corporate exercises, is now ready to move forward.
“We took one step backward (in a consolidation exercise) and three to four steps forward. In 2012-2013, we were in a consolidation mode. We have also mobilised some contracts and we are now in the growth mode,” he tells StarBizWeek in an interview.
Nan Yusri says its growth driver comes from three fronts.
The group currently has three core business segments – power and machinery, oilfield services and maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO).
It provides a diverse range of specialised supporting products and services for the oil and gas industry. Basically, its business is divided into surface and sub-sea. Deleum also has offices and facility bases around the country.
Currently, the bulk of its revenue comes from its power and machinery division, which contributes 70.5% to sales while oilfield contributes 22.3%. The balance is from its MRO business.
Nan Yusri says its oilfield operations business, which now accounts for 22.3% of the group’s revenue in the second quarter ended June 30 compared with 17.8% a year ago, is growing fast and has a lot of potential. “Oilfield will be where most of our growth will come from,” he says, adding that it has not fully mobilised its 50 slickline units yet.
Once they are fully deployed, the group’s earnings could be further enhanced. According to wikipedia, slickline is a single strand wire which is used to run tools into wellbore for several purposes.
“There’s certainly opportunity to grow the total number of slicklines. At present, there are 80 to 100 slickline in Malaysia with half of themoperated by Deleum,” Nan Yusri notes.
Nevertheless, he believes that Petronas will probably like to see more competition from other slickline operators.
Unfazed, Nan Yusri says Deluem has the technical capabilities to operate slicklines.
Deleum recently secured contracts from several parties including Petronas Carigali Sdn Bhd to provide slickline equipment.
“We started with 21 units and the numbers grew. Last year we bid for a renewal of our contract and not only we got to maintain the contract, we also increased it.
“I can’t say what the revenue contribution would be from our slickline business but we have doubled the number of slicklines. Certainly, contribution from that business in 2015 will be significant,” he beams.
Deleum is also making good progress with its asset integrated solutions (AIS) business under its oilfield service segment.
Nan Yusri says the AIS business is an exciting solution by company and its value is not in quantity.
“AIS has a niche area to serve. The big boys do not play (in this segment) and that provides a market for us,” he says. Deleum also has an inte­grated chemical solutions research unit in the oilfield segment and has developed several products. It has to commercialise these chemical solutions for local and overseas markets.
Nan Yusri says it would continue to explore new solutions for the industry and penetrate and expand the scope of applications in production enhancement for the industry.
MRO business
Commenting on its MRO business, Nan Yusri says it is a challenge but it sees the intangible benefits of the business. “We have faith and are still confident it will take off.”
For its second quarter ended June 30 results, the MRO division posted a loss of RM634,000 largely due to lower margin contribution in line with projects deferment and higher operating expenses.
The oil and gas equipment provider currently has an impressive orderbook worth RM4.04bil that would last the company through 2023.
Nan Yusri says there are opportunities in the country, especially in oil and gas exploration and production activities.
Deleum has worked on getting recognition to boost its chances of winning contracts. In January 2012, Deleum obtained its OPITO-Competence Management System Certification certificate (OPITO-CMS). It is the first wireline company in Asia to receive such recognition and certification. The CMS is a set of standards defining the competencies which apply to particular job roles.
Deleum has a training well facility following its attainment of OPITO-CMS. The facility serves as a training platform providing simulated work environment.
Nan Yusri says the facility will also be made available for external parties.
Deleum is on the lookout for merger and acquisition (M&A) opportunities and is also looking to expand its presence regionally. The group has so far secured projects in Indonesia, Brunei, Bangladesh, the Philippines, Myanmar and Cambodia.
Without disclosing details, Nan Yusri says any potential acquisition would have to complement the core business of Deleum.
Deleum’s strong net cash position would easily enable its growth through acquisitions. As at the end of its financial year ended Dec 31, 2013 (FY13), the company had net cash of about RM44mil. Asked if shareholders would stand to get higher dividends, Nan Yusri maintains that Deleum is committed to keeping its dividend policy of around 50% of its profits and that it has been paying consistent dividends.
Dividend plays
The company is one of the dividend plays among the oil and gas counters. For FY13, it declared a total payout of 17 sen per share. In FY12, it paid out 15 sen per share amounting to RM25.5mil.
“Hopefully it will hit another record. The board is committed to ensure we carry out our dividend policy,” Nan Yusri says.
Year-to-date, Deleum shares have gained some 40% to RM2.31. In the first quarter, Nan Yusri explains that it is usually a quiet quarter. “It starts picking up in the second quarter and there will be lots of activities in the third and fourth quarter.”
While the company may be conservative, as Nan Yusri says it does not want to grow too fast, its financial performance says otherwise. The company has been chalking up healthy growth year-on-year.
“We have been registering very healthy growth in the past few years,” Nan Yusri says, adding that its cash position is also at a very healthy position.
In the second quarter ended June 30, Deleum’s net profit rose to RM15.9mil from RM13.8mil a year ago. Its revenue for the period surged 45% to RM163.4mil against RM112.4mil.
For the first six months, Deleum posted a net profit of RM25.7mil on RM265.5mil.
“Sustainability shouldn’t be a challenge. Our challenge is to grow the business,” Nan Yusri says.

Coastal gets RM444m vessel orders


PETALING JAYA: Coastal Contracts Bhd’s latest contracts for the sale of seven offshore support vessels (OSV) for about RM444mil will increase the group’s order-book to RM2.6bil.
Executive chairman Ng Chin Heng said that the contracts would be one of the largest vessel orders for the group since its listing in August 2003.
As 25% of the current global OSV fleet was more than 25 years old, Ng saw more opportunities for OSV replacement.
He said Coastal Contracts was optimistic of the market outlook as crude oil prices were stable while successful exploratory drilling required more OSV support.
“Other than the strong momentum for our shipbuilding division, we are on track for the completion of our first high-specification jack-up rig – Coastal Driller 4001 – and our first jack-up gas compression service unit (JUGCSU),” Ng said in a statement yesterday.
Coastal Driller 4001 and the JUGCSU are slated for completion by the fourth quarter of 2014 and the first half of 2015, respectively.
Of the oil and gas firm’s current order-book of RM2.6bil, sales of the vessels amounted to RM1.4bil while the balance RM1.2bil was for its JUGCSU charter contract for Mexico’s state-owned oil company Petroleos Mexicanos.
Coastal Contracts expected positive contribution from the sale of the vessels to its revenue and earnings for the financial years ending Dec 31, 2014 and 2015.
Coastal Contracts shares added 19 sen to RM4.89, with 954,800 shares traded. At the last close, the counter was traded at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13 times.
Analysts tracking the counter pegged its 12-month target price at RM5.92.
The company’s revenue jumped 50% to RM467.07mil for its first half ended June 30, while earnings rose 54.3% to RM97.39mil compared with a year earlier.

Southeast Asia’s economy could be bigger than Japan’s by 2025, says UOB


Southeast Asia’s combined economy will be larger than the UK’s by 2020 and exceed that of Japan by 2025, fuelled by a growing middle class, says United Overseas Bank.

The establishment of the Asean Economic Community from the end of next year will be a key driver of growth for Southeast Asia, UOB economists Suan Teck Kin and Francis Tan said in a note today.

“In view of the dynamism and scale of an integrated region, our projections show that even by growing annually at just about two-thirds of the pace that it was used to during the period of 2001 to 2013, the size of the 10-member Asean economy could exceed US$4 trillion ($5 trillion) by 2020 (roughly the size of Germany in 2013) and would be nearly four times larger by 2030 at US$9 trillion (size of China’s economy in 2013).

“This means that going by our calculations, along the way after 2020, Southeast Asia’s economy would be larger than that of the UK and would overtake that of Japan by 2025. This would make Southeast Asia one of the world’s fastest-growing consumer markets as more enter the middle-class status.”

These projections are achievable, according to Suan and Tan, going by recent developments in Southeast Asia.

These events include the opening up of Myanmar to the international community, Indonesia’s presidential election, and the return of stability in Thailand after the military coup that ousted Yingluck Shinawatra as prime minister.

By 2030, China’s economy would have expanded to US$28 trillion, just shy of the US economy’s size of US$29 trillion, according to the economists.



孩子跟倪匡論閱讀  2014年9月24日


倪匡﹕作家雖窮 一生快樂





喜歡閱讀 是一生財富




[施仁毅 ACG狂徒]

Friday, September 26, 2014

大股东持股虽逼近全购门槛 置地通用无意私有化


(吉隆坡24日讯)置地通用(L&G,3174,主板产业股)董事经理刘毅德表示,大股东Mayland Parview私人有限公司并未表示有意将公司私有化,因此小股东无须担忧。
“此外,其他股东仍未转换所持的ICULS,若其他股东也相继转换债券后,相信大股东(Mayland Parkview)的持股比例,将略微下降。”
由香港产业大亨丹斯里邱达昌持有的Mayland Parkview,今日再将所持的3637万1000股ICULS转换,他目前于置地通用持股增至32.73%。
根据公司最新年报,Mayland Parkview拥有置地通用的2亿4037万1000单位或48.63%债券,为最大债券持有者。