Source: http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2014/04/26/Mobius-Malaysia-can-compete-Investment-guru-says-country-can-take-on-South-America-does-not-need-to/
“If I were South American, I would be more concerned (about Malaysia),” he quips.
Mobius was responding to a question about Malaysia’s prospects under the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA), in an interview with StarBizWeek at the Franklin Templeton Investments Asia Investor Forum 2014 in Tokyo, Japan.
The 77-year-old emerging markets expert and advocate believed there was nothing for Malaysia to fear about joining the agreement, stating that the country has good fundamentals and was competitive in its own right.
“I’m surprised that Malaysia would be worried about competitiveness as Malaysia can easily compete with these countries,” he says, referring in particular to the manufacturing sector. “They would probably be complementary.”
Mobius says there are many trade ideas the emerging market countries under the TPPA could pursue, such as Malaysia supplying processed rubber.
“In fact, the whole of South-East Asia should join the TPPA as a block. Any trade between Asia and the Pacific would be very good; it makes a lot of sense because a lot of things are happening in the Pacific.”
The TPPA is a free trade agreement currently negotiated between 12 nations - Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, United States, Singapore, Vietnam and Japan.
Among the concerns raised about the TPPA have been market access, investor-state dispute settlement, labour, environment, tobacco, medicine, intellectual property rights, state-owned enterprise issues.
International Trade and Industry minister Datuk Seri
Mustapa Mohamed has said last week that Malaysia will negotiate in the national interest even if US President
Barack Obama does not receive wide-ranging powers known as a trade promotion authority to push for a trade pact from the US Congress.
Aside from the South American countries involved in the TPPA, Mobius adds that Panama and Colombo were thriving markets to note as well.
On Malaysia’s progress since Mobius began investing in the country in the 1980s, he says the market has “progressed very far and done a terrific job”.
“We have increased our investments in Malaysia and we have a number of funds we’re managing for investors in Malaysia itself.”
Mobius is happy with the way the market has developed here, opening the doors to pension funds to be invested in equities and providing opportunities for foreign fund managers to come in and work.
“Vis-a-vis Singapore, Malaysia’s weaker currency means it has good opportunities to attract foreign investments.
“That’s why Johor is on a swing.”
Mobius believes both Malaysia and Singapore are complementary economic partners.
“Singapore doesn’t have the land and the lower labour costs which they have found in Malaysia while Malaysia can get the high-tech resources from Singapore.”
Emerging from a slump
Mobius, who has been invested in the emerging markets for over 40 years, predicts the emerging markets would rebound from a sluggish performance last year. The avid bicyclist points out that these markets have already outperformed the developed markets so far this year.
“It is a sign that money is flowing this way - back into emerging markets.
“Bear markets don’t last. Historically, bull markets last longer than bear markets,” he says during his presentation on emerging markets.
2013 saw investors moving out of emerging markets to developed markets like the United States where the economy recuperated from the global financial crisis.
“We should see a reversal of that this year. Whether by the end of the year the trend would continue to be so, I don’t know but it looks that way,” he says.
Among the other major trend he sees in the emerging markets realm were the China and Hong Kong exchanges merging. While China is expected to undergo some challenging economic reforms that will see a lot of banks going under, people getting arrested, state-owned enterprises closing down as the government improves efficiency and resources allocation.
Other sweeping changes, he notes were deregularisation of industries reserved for the government allowing market access by private sector, as well as financial liberalisation which will see the private sector setting up financial institutions.
The property market in China will also be vibrant, as more citizens migrate from rural areas to the city.
“China is not slowing down. It is now at a single digit growth rate but in dollar value, this growth is bigger than the years before,” he says.
Mobius is bullish on the consumer services sector in emerging markets, as purchasing power rises in these countries. Gross domestic product per capita growth has reached 45% in emergign markets between 2008 and 2013, while developed markets only scored a 3% growth.
He is also keen on the financial and technology sectors, where people are increasing able to access these services and innovations.
“Government debt in these markets is quite low but consumer debt in some countries may increase due to the rapid rise in credit card and consumer financing. So rapid that it’s going to have problems along the way,” he says, noting that the non-performing loans on the consumer side may increase.
He is also confident of the growth of internet-based businesses in the region where the absence of legacy technology allows emerging markets to adopt the latest solutions than in developed markets.
“Internet shopping is coming into its own globally, I don’t see any let up there. And internet-shopping related businesses will grow”, he adds, referring to delivery and payment companies.
Developed markets’ 12-month forward P/E is 14.8 times.
The 2014 emerging markets gross domestic product growth is expected at a average of 5.1%, compared to 1.8% in developed markets.
That said, Mobius cautions investors to be selective still about their investments in these markets using a bottom-up approach.
擁有10年脊椎外科專科經驗的蘇霖銘醫生指出，雖然還沒有醫學報告證實書包過重會導致脊椎傷害，但是根據他本身所遇到的個案而言，若書包重量佔了體重的20%以上，脊椎側彎的可能性也大大提高。
根據本報記者抽樣檢查8至12歲學生的書包，發現平均每位學生的書包重量佔了身體重量的30%或更多。
椎間盤破裂移位案增
蘇霖銘接受本報訪問時提醒，椎間盤破裂和移位患者有年輕化的跡象，以往這種疾病多數是30歲以上的患者，但現在十幾、二十歲年輕人患上椎間盤破裂、移位的個案有所增加。
他指出，椎中盤受損、破裂的情況除了會導致椎間盤移位，還會進一步因壓迫坐骨神經，而導致疼痛。
人體在承受自身體重10%以上的重量時，會開始感到不適、背部肌肉疼痛，但卻不至於造成傷害。因此，他建議學生的書包重量，最好不要佔體重的20%。
超重2大原因
