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Friday, February 28, 2014

Malaysia stock market a safe haven: Citibank


KUALA LUMPUR (Feb 27, 2014): Global bank Citi still considers Malaysia's equity market as a safe haven for investors in 2014 despite preferring developed markets over emerging markets and picking North Asia to perform better than Asean.
"Malaysia market has been a defensive market and it has done well in times of volatility. If you are looking for a safe haven, Malaysia may well be the place," said Citibank Bhd CEO Sanjeev Nanavati.
The bank's top picks are Malayan Banking Bhd, SapuraKencana Petroleum Bhd and Sime Darby Bhd, while remained positive on the oil and gas sector, as well as infrastructure and construction sectors.
Investors may also want to look at other index constituents, said Sanjeev, as the benchmark index FBM KLCI sees modest upside.
"Today the KLCI is trading at the price-earnings ratio of 15.6 times and it is expected to rise to 16 times, lower than the historical average of 18 times. So, we might see a flattish and slight upside this year," he told the reporters in a media conference here yesterday.
On a broader perspective, Citi Asia Pacific chief investment strategist for Wealth Management Haren Shah said developed markets are preferable to emerging markets, cautioning investors that North Asia (Hong Kong, China, Korea and Taiwan) may outperform the Asean region on tapering fears.
"If we look at the way the macro-environment is evolving, be it US tapering action or shifting in liquidity, the developed markets will do better," said the Singapore-based visiting investment strategist.
Within emerging markets, investors should focus on the countries that are showing value and current account surplus, said Haren, suggesting that Asean markets is less attractive than North Asia from valuation perspective.
"North Asia is 30% cheaper than Asean markets. If the money were to come into this part of the world, you always want to chase where things are cheaper first," he said.
Generally, the investors are advised to keep their strategy simple and straight forward, as 2014 is about growth and global recovery, while the financial markets will remain volatile as it adjusts to these factors.
"Volatility comes from the news and information that the people react to it. We should look at the big picture, but not to get over-influenced by short term events because risks come and go," said Haren.
"Stay consistent in your investment policy and approach. Just keep things simple and don't let all the noises out there confuse your investment philosophy," he added.
On global recovery, Haren said the US economy is strengthening and there are signs that other major economies are stabilising and showing relative strength. Meanwhile, the Eurozone will look more towards growth rather than austerity in 2014.
As for China, reforms could result in slower growth in the first half of the year, but the global economy recovery will help it revive growth.
"We will continue to face headwinds and uncertainties from liquidity fears, rising bond yields, European debt, Chinese reforms, as well as geopolitics tensions between Japan and China, North Korea and more recently, Ukraine," said Haren.
On another note, Sanjeev said the Malaysia's foreign direct investment (FDI) sentiment is good and likely to stay positive in 2014.
The FDI in 2013 was healthy, he said, as the investment in local electrical and electronics sector continued, while the investing trend has also shifted from China to South East Asia.
"Overall, Malaysia's FDI will be a good story. There is no reason to believe that 2014 is not a good FDI year," he said.
Commenting on the local economy, Sanjeev said Malaysia's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow at 5% this year. However, a rebalancing of growth engine is expected to happen, shifting from domestic demand to export-oriented.

收益能力受压 券商大砍亚航X 财测



Sunway Group posts RM1.5b in earnings in FY13


KUALA LUMPUR: Sunway Group Bhd's earnings surged 241% to RM1.5bil in the financial year ended Dec 31, 2013 from RM438.82mil in FY12 a year ago, boosted by its property and construction segments, as the group remained upbeat with an order book of nearly RM4bil.

It said on Thursday there were fair valuation gains from investment properties and financial effects from the adoption of the new FRS 10.
For FY13, Sunway Group's core net profit surged 38% to RM482.7mil from RM350.70mil. Revenue increased by 14.6% to RM4.733bil from RM4.128bil.
In Q4, 2014, its earnings surged to RM1.138bil from RM146.55mil a year ago while its revenue increased 8.1% to RM1.342bil from RM1.241bil. Earnings per share were 66.07 sen compared with 9.95 sen.
It proposed a dividend of 5.0 sen a share compared with 6.0 sen a year ago.
"In addition to the group's core net profit, there were fair valuation gains, impact from the new financial reporting standard FRS 10 and other non-recurring items amounting to RM1.017bil," it explained.
Under the new FRS 10, effective Jan 1, 2013, Sunway Group had to consolidate the financial position and financial results of Sunway Real Estate Investment Trust (SRM REIT) and the adjustments were to be made retrospectively. 
"The group's core businesses of property and construction continued to be the key contributors to the group's bottom-line contributing 83% of the core net profit," it said.
Sunway Group said property contributed more than RM342.6mil to core net profit, boosted by strong billings from local projects  -- Sunway South Quay, Sunway Velocity, Sunway Damansara -- and development projects in Singapore.
Its construction business contributed RM57.8mil with key projects like Package V4 of the Mass Rapid Transit and Package B of the Light Rail Transit-Kelana Jaya Line Extension, contributing to its earnings in FY13.
Over 60% of the group's net profit was from Malaysia while 35% was from Singapore.
Founder and chairman of Sunway Group Tan Sri Dr Jeffrey Cheah said the group had a record construction order book of nearly RM4bil and unbilled property sales of RM2.4bil "which will underpin our performance going forward".
"Over the medium to longer term, our land bank of more than 3,300 acres will ensure the sustainability of our future performance," he added.

Genting suffers 80% slump in Q4 profit


KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian-based gaming-to-plantations conglomerate Genting Bhd, which controls one of the world's most profitable casinos in Singapore, reported a 80.5 percent drop in fourth quarter net profit.
The sharp drop partly reflected an inflated figure a year earlier due to profits from the sale of two power plants.
The group, controlled by the Lim family, one of the most powerful families in Malaysian business, has also been spending heavily to aggressively expand in the United States and South Korea.
It said it was interested in eventual opportunities in Japan, which is preparing to allow casinos to open up and could potentially become the world's second-biggest gaming market, worth $15 billion a year, analysts say.
Genting said its fourth-quarter net profit to December dropped to 483.83 million ringgit ($147.96 million) from 2.48 billion ringgit in the same quarter a year earlier. Revenue rose 3.8 percent year-on-year.
Excluding the impact of the power plant sales in the fourth quarter of 2012, Genting would have recorded a 7.4 percent decline in net profit year on year for the fourth quarter of 2013.
The group said earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) fell as a result of a drop in profits at its Singapore gaming operations and due to the start-up of leisure and hospitality interests in the United States.
Full-year profit was the lowest in four years at 1.81 billion ringgit, down 54.6 percent from a year earlier and missing the 2.1 billion ringgit estimated by 20 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters SmartEstimate.
Genting also has interests in property development and plantations and operates Asia's largest listed cruise operator Genting Hong Kong.
The results were announced after the Kuala Lumpur stock exchange closed.
Genting shares have risen 10 percent in the past year, supported by the group's expansion plans and improving results from its plantations and Malaysian operations, but lagged a 12.2 percent rise in the Kuala Lumpur benchmark index over that period. - Reuters

Supermax net profit down 22% on lower revenue


PETALING JAYA: Supermax Corp Bhd’s net profit fell 22% to RM25.04mil for the final quarter ended Dec 31, 2013, from RM32.14mil in the previous corresponding period due to lower revenue.
The rubber glove manufacturer’s revenue declined 29% to RM192.24mil for the period in review compared with RM271.24mil previously.
It said in a statement that the decline in revenue was due to lower glove selling prices and temporary loss of production output as a result of a fire incident at its Alor Gajah plant in Malacca as well as scheduled halt of production lines at several factories as part of an ongoing automation implementation programme.
Supermax’s earnings per share (EPS) in the fourth quarter last year fell to 3.68 sen from 4.72 sen in the previous corresponding period.
The company has declared a final interim dividend of three sen per share, which brought the total dividend declared for 2013 to five sen per share.
For the full year, Supermax’s net profit rose 6% to RM128.75mil from RM121.72mil in 2012.
Consequently, its EPS was higher at 18.93 sen last year compared with 17.90 sen in 2012.
The group’s revenue in 2013 rose to a record RM1.13bil, up 13% from RM997.37mil in the preceding year.
Supermax said its 10th and 11th plants in Meru, Klang, would be commissioned in batches from third quarter of 2014.
When fully commissioned, the two new plants would increase the group’s nitrile glove capacity by 6.9 billion pieces to 12.3 billion pieces per annum.
“The increase in production capacity would contribute not just to the manufacturing division in terms of additional new sales and profits, but also provide additional new sales and additional profits to the group’s overseas distribution activities, providing additional income and increase in market share of nitrile gloves,” Supermax executive chairman and group managing director Datuk Seri Stanley Thai said in a statement.
Meanwhile, Supermax revealed that the Phase 1 of its Integrated Glove ManufacturingComplex would be developed between this year and 2018, with 28 high-capacity and high-efficiency lines to produce 10.85 billion pieces of gloves.
It said Phase 2 would be developed between 2019 and 2022 with 12 high-capacity and high-efficiency lines to produce 4.65 billion pieces of gloves.
It added construction of the first plant at its Glove City Project in Meru, Klang, was expected to begin in the first half of next year.

OSK-DMG raises target price of Nam Cheong to 48 cents


OSK-DMG raises target price of Nam Cheong to 48 cents

Analysts: Lee Yue Jer & Jason Saw

NCL reported record core PATMI of MYR193m, up 41% y-o-y, in line with our top-of-street estimate and 7% above consensus. 

The dividend was doubled to 1 cent per share. 

The critical FY15 shipbuilding programme comprises 35 vessels worth USD700m, above our and street estimates of 30 vessels worth c.USD600m. 

We lift FY14/15F estimates by 7%/16% and expect a wave of street upgrades. BUY, with a higher SGD0.48 TP.  

Strong results. Nam Cheong (NCL)’s FY13 PATMI was MYR205.6m, including a one-off MYR12.6m tax writeback on deferred tax liabilities provisioned in FY07-12, now no longer necessary. 
Nam Cheong Ltd declared a 0.5 cent of ordinary dividend and a 0.5 cent special dividend, thus doubling the dividend from FY12. 
File photo

Core PATMI thus surged 41% y-o-y to MYR193m, beating consensus forecast. Shipbuilding margins were 21% in 4Q13, ahead of consensus, which had predicted the margins to fall.   

Delivering on “happy dividend” promise. NCL declared 0.5 cent of ordinary dividend and a 0.5 cent special dividend, thus doubling the dividend from FY12 and fulfilling the promise of a “happy dividend” made in 3Q13. Given the strong earnings growth profile, we expect dividend increases over the next few years, bringing the yield to 3.5-4.2%.  

FY15 shipbuilding programme above trigger-point, expect a wave of upgrades. The company revealed that its FY15 shipbuilding programme will comprise 35 vessels worth USD700m, up from FY14’s 30 vessels worth USD600m, which is also the consensus forecast. 

We raise FY14/15F estimates by 7%/16% accordingly, and expect a wave of street upgrades on the new information. Based on this new forecast, we see NCL delivering 34%/22% earnings growth over the next two years and continuing its track record of delivering 25% ROE per year.  

Raising TP to SGD0.48; Top Pick with BUY. We continue to like NCL for its: i) strong growth, ii) low valuations, iii) high ROEs, iv) strong order win momentum and orderbook, and v) asset-light strategy and business model. The growing income component of the dividend yield adds another attraction to this stock. 

Maintain BUY on the stock, which is one of our Top Picks in the offshore & marine space, with a higher SGD0.48 TP (from SGD0.45) based on a 10x FY14F P/E. 

Thursday, February 27, 2014

BIMB profit falls due to one-off dividend charge


PETALING JAYA: BIMB Holdings Bhd saw its net profit for the fourth quarter ended Dec 31, 2013, almost halved to RM36.42mil, from RM68.62mil a year ago, partly due to a one-off tax charge on dividends received from its unit Bank Islam Malaysia Bhd.
The group’s earnings per share fell to 3.37 sen from 6.43 sen previously. This was despite its revenue rising 9.7% to RM729.67mil from RM665.16mil previously.
During the period in review, BIMB’s consolidated profit before zakat and taxation (PBZT) rose 18.1% to RM234.38mil, compared with RM198.48mil previously, thanks to higher operating results and improvement in allowance for impairment on financing and advances, investments and other assets.
For the full year, BIMB’s net profit rose a marginal 1.3% to RM255.61mil from RM252.27mil in 2012, while EPS remained flat at 23.65 sen.
BIMB said in a statement the flattish net profit was mainly due to the increase in tax charged on the higher dividend income received from Bank Islam last year of RM227.2mil compared with RM99.7mil in 2012.
At a corporate tax rate of 25%, the tax charged for 2013 is RM56.8mil, compared to RM24.9mil in 2012, resulting in an incremental tax charge of RM31.9mil, it said.
BIMB group managing director and CEO Johan Abdullah said: “The recent acquisition of 49% equity interest in Bank Islam from Dubai Financial Group andLembaga Tabung Haji in 2013 is expected to substantially increase the net profit attributable to the shareholders this year.” The group’s revenue last year stood at RM2.81bil, up 13.6% from RM2.47bil in 2012.
Its consolidated PBZT rose 16.1% to RM833.1mil last year from RM717.4mil in 2012 on higher operating results of RM32.8mil and RM73.5mil improvement in allowances for impairment on financing and advances, investment and other assets.
Last year, its units Bank Islam recorded an increase of 13.4% year-on-year in PBZT to RM677.3mil due to growth in overall business activities, while Takaful Malaysia Group recorded an increase of 42.9% year-on-year in PBZT to RM179.3mil on higher net wakalah fee income and better investment results.
BIMB’s shares fell 25 sen yesterday to close at RM3.88, with 5.9 million shares changing hands.

KSL Holdings under selling pressure after Q4 net loss


KUALA LUMPUR: Property-based KSL Holdings’ share price and its warrants fell sharply on Thursday after it swung into the red in the fourth quarter ended Dec 31, 2014 with net losses of RM10.54mil.
At 10.20am, its share price was down 25 sen to RM2.17. Turnover was 3.74 million shares.
Its warrants, KLS-WA tumbled 22 sen to RM1.08. There were 2.09 million warrants traded.
The FBM KLCI rose 4.08 points to 1,826.23. Turnover was 588 million shares valued at RM297.64mil. There were 263 gainers, 256 losers and 279 counters unchanged.
KSL said the fall in its earnings were due to the loss arising from fair value adjustment of RM9.4mil on investment properties and a provision of deferred taxation for real property gains tax (RPGT) of about RM13mil.
The losses in Q4, 2013 was in contrast to the earnings of RM35.18mil a year ago. However, for FY13, its reported earnings of RM172.39mil, which was higher than the RM127.81mil in FY12.

Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Jaya Tiasa historical record cannot lie - Koon Yew Yin


As you all know, I have been trying to teach you how to select shares with good profit growth prospect and as an example I used Jaya Tiasa. I even told you that my family members and I have bought more than 40 million shares and now my largest holding is JT. I also told you that on 31 Dec I bought 4.5 million JT at Rm 2.04 per share.

Many readers complianed that I was promoting Jaya Tiasa because I want people to buy to support the share. I have been telling you that I do not need you to make me richer because time will prove me right. My intention is noble and altruistic, I just want to teach you how to be a super investor.

As I said, the truth will set me free. Now a lot of serious investors are beginning to see that Jaya Tiasa has tremdous profit growth prosepect and they are buying as if tomorrow is too late.

If you look at the research I have done you will understand that the historical FFB production record cannot lie and if you use a litlle bit of imagination you can safely foresee that its profit will continue to grow for the next few years because the average age of their palms is only about 6 years and the FFB production peak is 11 years.

Many profesional analysts have already reported that the current up trend of CPO price is sustainable because Indonesia has mandated the use 3 million tons of palm oil to produce bio diesel for this year.

As I said again and again I do not need to buy to support the price of JT.

FFB production for 1st half of financial year 2014 from July – Dec 2013.

The above chart shows the annual Jaya Tiasa FFB production from 2007-2013 ending June. The FFB production increased by an average of more than 30% per year.

JT’s monthly FFB production from July – Dec 2013 are : 60,600 ton, 69,600, 83,066, 79,157, 74,161, 80,851 ton , totaling 447,439 ton. Assuming the 2nd half year FFB production is the same, the total FFB production for the coming financial year ending June 2014 will be 894,878 ton which an increase of about 32%.

Since the average age of the palms is only about 6 years and palm will produce the maximum fruits at the age of 11 years, I can foresee the FFB production will increase by about 30% per year compound for the next 5 years.




辟捷控股已经拥有逾50年的历史,它成功完成许多着名和口碑极佳的的计划,包括吉隆坡市的D’Majestic、蕉赖的YouCity、USJ的You One、柔佛州的You Terrace、槟城的Wellesley Residences以及关丹Sand Series的Swiss-Garden Residences。










(D)槟城北海城镇(Bandar Butterworth)16.3英亩,永久地契。







此地近Sri Hartamas高档区,将发展高级公寓(出售中)。




此业务包括吉隆坡Swiss Inn酒店、Swiss Garden高尔夫度假胜地,Damai Laut、关丹Swiss Garden度假胜地、马六甲Swiss Garden酒店,酒店管理与时光分享业务。
























































The Random Walk Guide to Investing: Ten Rules for Financial Success


In 1973, Burton Malkiel published A Random Walk Down Wall Street, in which he argued that a blindfolded monkey could pick stocks as well as a professional investor. Though I bought a copy of Random Walk for $3.99 at the local Goodwill last year, I haven’t read it. It looks dense. I know it’s written for the layman, but it still seems rather academic.
In 2003, Malkiel published The Random Walk Guide to Investing, “a book of less than 200 pages in length that boils down the time-tested advice from Random Walk into an investment guide that [is] completely accessible for a reader who knows nothing about the securities markets and who hates numbers.”
Several patient GRS-readers have been recommending this book for the past year. When I stayed home sick yesterday, I finally found time to read it. I’m impressed. Malkiel has produced an easy-to-read straightforward investment guide that I’m happy to recommend to anyone. His philosophy matches my own:
The advice in this book is both simple and realistic. There is no magic potion in the investment world because the truth is that one doesn’t exist. There is no quick road to riches. And if someone promises you a path to overnight riches, cover your ears and close your pocketbook. If an investment idea seems too good to be true, it is too good to be true. What I offer are ten simple, time-tested rules that can build wealth and provide retirement security. Think of the rules as the proven way to get rich slowly.
Malkiel’s rules are familiar. We’ve discussed most of them here before:
  1. Start saving now, not later. Don’t worry about whether the market is high or low — just begin investing. “Trust in time rather than timing,” Malkiel writes. “The secret to getting rich slowly (but surely) is the miracle of compound interest.”
  2. Keep a steady course. “The most important driver in the growth of your assets is how much you save,” writes Malkiel, “and saving requires discipline.” To develop discipline, the author recommends that you learn to pay yourself first (invest before anything else, even paying bills), implement a budget, change spending habits, and pay off debt.
  3. Don’t be caught empty-handed. Malkiel recommends that readers open an emergency fund. He doesn’t specify how much should be set aside, but he does cover a variety of places to put the cash: money market accounts, certificates of deposit, and online savings accounts. He also recommends purchasing term life insurance.
  4. Stiff the tax collector. Make the most of tax-advantaged savings: Open an Individual Retirement Account, contribute to your company’s retirement plan, take advantage of tax-free savings for your child’s education, buy your home rather than rent. All of these things help to reduce the bite that taxes take out of your money.
  5. Match your asset mix to your investment personality. Based on your risk tolerance and your investment horizon, choose the best mix of cash, bonds, stocks, and real estate. (Malkiel encourages investors to buy each of these through mutual funds.)
  6. Never forget that diversity reduces adversity. Don’t just buy stocks — buy stocks, bonds, and other investments classes. Within each category, diversify further. And don’t just buy one stock — buy mutual funds of many stocks. (Malkiel makes his case with the stark example of a 58-year-old Enron employee who had a $2.5 million 401k — of Enron stock. When Enron went bust, the employee not only lost her job, but her retirement savings vanished completely.) Finally, the author recommends “diversification over time” — making investments at regular intervals using dollar-cost averaging.
  7. Pay yourself, not the piper. Interest and fees are drags on your wealth. “Paying off credit card debt is the best investment you will ever make.” Avoid expensive mutual funds. “The only factor reliably linked to future mutual fund performance is the expense ratio charged by the fund.” In fact, the author advises that costs matter for all financial products.
  8. Bow to the wisdom of the market. “No one can time the market,” Malkiel says. It’s too unpredictable. Professional money managers can’t beat the market, financial magazines can’t beat the market — nobody can beat the market on a regular basis. The best way to earn consistent gains is to invest in broad-based index funds. It’s boring, but it works.
  9. Back proven winners. After Malkiel has preached the virtues of index funds, presumably converting the reader to his religion, he spends a chapter suggesting possible index funds and asset allocations.
  10. Don’t be your own worst enemy. Malkiel concludes by admonishing readers to stay the course, warning them against faulty thinking. He discusses the sort of money mistakes I’ve mentioned before: overconfidence, herd behavior, loss aversion, and the sunk-cost fallacy.
Ultimately, Malkiel’s advice can be stated in a few short sentences: Eliminate debt. Establish an emergency fund. Begin making regular investments to a diversified portfolio of index funds. Be patient. But the simplicity of his message does not detract from its value. The Random Walk Guide to Investing is an excellent book because it sticks to the basics:
  • It’s short.
  • It’s written in plain English — there’s no jargon.
  • It’s easy to understand — concepts are simplified so the average person can grasp them.
  • It’s filled with great advice.
This book refers often to other books to bolster its arguments, and includes quotes from financial professionals like John Bogle and Warren Buffett. Though the advice may seem elementary, it’s advice that works. If you want to invest but don’t know where to start, pick up The Random Walk Guide to Investing at your local library.

Malkiel is a proponent of the Efficient-Market Hypothesis. The idea is that markets have in them all the information they need to perform efficiently and an individual investor will not be able to outperform them consistently. 

Signature International - Record order book, and still growing


Target RM2.63 (Stock Rating: ADD)

At 88% of our annualised FY14 estimate, 1HFY06/14 net profit was in line with our expectations as we project a stronger performance in 2HFY14. The current order book is already at a record RM240m, and there are abundant jobs in the pipeline. We maintain our EPS forecasts and target price, still based on a 30% discount to our SOP valuation. The discount is to factor in Signature's small market cap and tight liquidity. The stock remains an Add. Completion of the Kota Damansara industrial land sale and more job flows in the next few quarters could catalyse the stock.

1HFY14 net profit up 206% yoy
Signature's earnings continue to recover. 1HFY14 revenue rose 34% and net profit increased by 206% yoy. The higher profit growth reflects the greater economies of scale as production volume picks up for both the retail and project businesses. No interim dividend was declared, in line with our expectations.

Order book at record RM240m
Signature's outstanding order book is currently at a record RM240m, which would keep the company busy over the next 1-2 years. Almost all the mid- and high-end condominium developers include built-in kitchens to attract buyers. Today, a built-in kitchen is the industry norm. The company is tendering for more than RM600m worth of jobs. This does not include the new jobs that would be open to bid over the next few quarters. The management expects the job flow to continue over the next three years. If all goes well, Signature's order book could increase by RM150-200m over the next year.

Net cash balance sheet
As at end-Dec 13, the company had a net cash of RM28.8m or RM0.24/per share. This could rise to RM79m or RM0.66 net cash/share if the proposed sale of its Kota Damansara factory land to property developer Meda Inc (MEDA MK, Non Rated) is finalised. This would be more than sufficient to fund the proposed capex for its new factory in Klang, estimated at around RM80m.

Matrix Concepts plans RM660m projects after strong FY13 earnings


KUALA LUMPUR: Negeri Sembilan property developer Matrix Concepts Holdings Bhd's earnings rose 47.7% to RM152.89mil in the financial year ended Dec 31, 2013 (FY13) from RM103.50mil a year ago.

The company said on Tuesday group revenue increased 26% to RM574.66mil in FY13 from RM456.10mil, due to strong demand for residential, commercial and industrial properties in its integrated Bandar Sri Sendayan township development in Seremban.

"Unbilled sales as at Dec 31, 2013 stood at RM437.0mil, which will sustain the group till 2015," it said.

In Q4 ended Dec 31, 2013, it reported earnings of RM40.66mil on a turnover of RM144.33mil. EPS were 13.5 sen. It proposed a dividend of 5 sen a share.

Maxtrix Concepts chairman Datuk Mohamad Haslah Mohamad Amin said despite the increasingly challenging property sector in 2013, its properties in Bandar Sri Sendayan in Seremban and Taman Seri Impian in Kluang continued to be in high demand, mainly due to the affordable prices.

"This is evidenced in the group's total sales for the year, as we sold a record RM788mil worth of properties in FY2013, 15% more than RM686mil a year earlier.

"We are confident that affordable homes will still very much be sought after. Hence, we target to launch RM660mil gross development value (GDV) worth of projects in Negeri Sembilan and Johor in FY2014.

"These new launches, coupled with our ongoing projects worth up to RM840mil GDV, will not only keep the group busy in FY2014, but also position us for another good year."

Source :

Jaya Tiasa Holdings - FFB output misses our target


Target RM2.47 (Stock Rating: HOLD)

Jaya Tiasa's 1HFY6/14 core net profit was below expectations, at 37% of our full-year estimate and 35% of consensus. The shortfall stemmed mainly from lower-than-expected FFB yields, which wiped out the impact of lower estate costs. We scale back FY14 EPS by 7% to reflect the lower FFB output achieved YTD but raise FY15-16 by 3-4% for lower estate costs due to lower fertiliser prices. This leads to a higher SOP-based target price of RM2.47. We maintain our Hold call due to its subpar estate productivity. We prefer Ta Ann.

Better results from timber and plantations
Jaya Tiasa's 2Q core net profit surged 585% yoy to RM19.8m, lifted by better plantations and timber earnings. Plantations pretax profit soared 446% yoy to RM13.4m due to a 21% yoy decline in FFB costs, which we suspect was due to lower fertiliser costs. Timber earnings jumped 632% to RM25.1m as higher prices for logs (+22% yoy) and plywood (+7% yoy) offset lower sales volumes for logs (-32% yoy) and plywood (-35% yoy). We believe that tight supply of tropical timber was the key driver of the higher selling prices.

Lower production cost offset weaker FFB output
The earnings improvement, though strong, fell short of our forecast. We deduced that this was due mainly to lower-than-expected improvement in FFB yields. 2Q FFB output growth was 19% yoy, which is 11% pts below the group's target output of 30% and 16% pts below our FY14 projection of 35%. We cut FY14-16 FFB output by 3-8% to incorporate a weaker FFB yield forecast but raise FY15-16 EPS to reflect lower fertiliser costs and also lower transport costs due to the commissioning of its new mills. The group's plantation expenses increased by only 15% yoy in 1H, lower than the 28% jump in mature area.

Keeping Hold recommendation
While the group has the cheapest EV/ha (RM51,419) among the Malaysian planters under our coverage, its plantation productivity, in terms of FFB yield and OER, is still below the industry average. As a result, the group's estates are less profitable than its peers and more sensitive to CPO price fluctuations. We would turn more bullish on the stock if its FFB yield and OER achievement surpassed our expectations.

Source: CIMB Research, Full PDF Report

First Resources - Exceed expectations


FY13 core net profit beat our and Street expectations.

Outperformance mainly due to forward sales made in 2012 when CPO price was still high.

Maintain BUY with a higher TP of SGD2.70 on 15x FY15E P/E after rolling forward our valuation base year.
What’s New

First Resources’ (FR) FY13 core net profit of USD217m (+3% YoY) met 108% of our and consensus full-year forecasts. The earnings outperformance was mainly due to high CPO forward sales locked-in in early 2012, which led to a relatively high (net) CPO ASP of USD861/t for 2013, higher than Indonesia’s benchmark price of USD717/t.
What’s Our View

In 2014, we expect FR to post a 6% decline in PATMI as all its forward sales were delivered in 2013. We also assume that it will achieve our industry-wide CPO ASP forecast of MYR2,600/t (or USD748/t net of Indonesia’s export tax), which is lower than what it enjoyed in 2013. However, the lower CPO ASP will be mitigated by our 14% FFB growth projection for 2014. In our view, investors should not be disheartened by possibly lower FY14E earnings given a high base due to the outstanding performance in FY13. Instead, they should look forward to a 10.8% EPS growth in FY15E and value FR’s proven management capability.

We continue to like FR for its long-term value proposition, backed by its plantable reserves of 100k ha, young tree age of eight years (average) which will sustain a projected 11.8% FFB output CAGR (2013-2016), and low cost of production. We raise our FY14E-15E forecasts slightly on housekeeping. Maintain BUY with a higher TP of SGD2.70, based on 15x FY15E P/E (previously SGD2.39 on 15x FY14 P/E), as we roll forward our valuation base year.

Source: Maybank Research - 26 Feb 2014

Barakah Offshore Petroleum - No surprises; eyes on Saudi T&I


1Q14 core net profit of MYR11m accounts for 15% of our 15- month FY14 earnings forecast.

Bagging the on-going Saudi Arabia T&I tender is key to further re-rating.

Maintain BUY and MYR1.85 TP, pegged to 14x FY15.
What’s New

1Q14 core profit was within our expectations, on the back of a 35% YoY/1% QoQ decline in core earnings. Headline net profit included a MYR7m one-off loss, mainly related to the listing exercise.
What’s Our View

The underlying YoY weakness in core earnings was largely due to the higher operating expenses related to the low utilisation of its pipelay unit; KL 101. The vessel, delivered in 2012, was immobilised since Nov 2013 for slight maintenance works in preparation for the PETRONAS T&I job in Jun 2014. The lower revenue from installation and construction services (-50% YoY) also contributed to the weaker YoY earnings.

Our forecasts are unchanged. Trend-wise, we expect 2Q performance to mirror 1Q before earnings pick up from 3Q as contributions from PETRONAS T&I works kick in. In the meantime, it has seven on-going short tenders worth MYR150m as it aims to keep utilisation reasonably high.

The Saudi Arabia T&I job is still pending and the award will be announced soon. Barakah is in contention with 2 tenderers for this job, of which one of them is an incumbent. Securing this job win worth about MYR2-2.5b would be a major positive to earnings and franchise. Our back of envelope calculation suggests an additional MYR50-70m p.a to net profit and potentially a 51% rise in target price.

Source: Maybank Research - 26 Feb 2014

MPHB Capital - Deeply discounted asset play


FY13 results in line, reported results are just for 9 months.

MPHB Cap continues to be a deeply-discounted asset play with valuable land bank.

SOP-derived TP of MYR2.42 maintained. The MPI sale could lift our SOP by another 23 sen to MYR2.65; BUY.
What’s New

MPHB Cap’s FY13 results were within expectations - to note that the group reported results for just nine months. Multi-Purpose Insurans (MPI), which contributed to 78% of group earnings, saw net earned premiums (NEP) rise 14% YoY and positively, its claims ratio was stable at 59.7% (59.8% in FY12). Motor NEP increased 14% YoY and accounted for 44% of total NEP while fire NEP made up 16%. MPI’s combined ratio worked out to be 92.6% in FY13, an improvement over 93.8% in FY12. Group earnings included about MYR5m profit from its completed Minden Heights property project.
What’s Our View

Our forecasts assume 11% NEP growth in FY14 with the motor class as the key driver. We have also assumed a combined ratio of 93%. The group’s joint-venture property development projects, in which it shares 22% of the profits, are expected to kick off with the Rawang project in mid-2014; we have yet to factor in contributions from this development.

The sale of the Balik Pulau land will contribute to an exceptional profit of MYR194.6m, or 27sen per share, which we have already factored into our SOP.

We expect the sale of a 49% stake in Multi-Purpose Insurans (MPI) at an assumed P/BV of 2.2x to lift our SOP by another 23 sen to MYR2.65 (+10%). We remain upbeat on MPHB Cap as a deeplydiscounted asset play – there is still much valued to be unlocked from its 2,700 acres of land bank – BUY.

Source: Maybank Research - 26 Feb 2014

Coastal Contract - Healthy Orderbook And Rig To Drive Earnings


Coco’s  full-year  FY13  net  profit  of  MYR151.6m  beat  our/consensus’ estimate  by  9.5%/7.1%  on  better  margins.  YTD  orderbook  is  strong  at MYR2.5bn,  including  the 20-year drilling contract worth MYR1.24bn. We raise our FY14/15 forecasts by 33%/59% on expectations of better profit from  its  rig  and  shipbuilding  segments.  Maintain  BUY,  with  a  new MYR5.44 FV (from MYR3.77), based on a target FY14 P/E of 13x.
  • FY13  full-year  results  beat  forecasts.  Coastal  Contract  (Coco)’s  fullyear net profit of  MYR151.6m beat both our and consensus’ estimates by 9.5%/7.1% respectively. We believe this is mainly due to: i) lower raw material  costs  as  steel  prices  had  remained  depressed  through  FY13,and ii) better profit margin derived from the selling of more sophisticated vessels during the year.
  • Strong  4QFY13  showing.  Coco’s  FY13  full-year  revenue  growth  was flat. That said, 4QFY13 revenue jumped 32% y-o-y and 31% q-o-q, while 4QFY13  core net  profit  surged 73% y-o-y and  24% q-o-q,  driven by an increase in the number of vessels sold during the quarter.
  • Healthy orderbook.  Including  a drilling rig contract  it  recently  clinched, Coco’s  orderbook  grew  to  MYR2.5bn  as  of  Feb  2014.  The  drilling  rig contract amounts to MYR1.24bn,  and  approximately MYR1.26bn  of the orderbook comes from the shipbuilding segment. The portion attributable to the shipbuilding is believed to be mostly due by FY14.  We have not included the 20-year drilling contract into our fair value estimate.
  • Maintain BUY,  new MYR5.44  FV.  We  now  apply a higher target FY14 P/E of 13x  to value  the stock, on par with other small-  to mid-cap stocks to derive our new FV of MYR5.44 (from MYR3.77). We reaffirm our  view that  the  stock  should  be  re-rated  higher  as  it  has  transformed  into  an upstream  asset  owner.  Our  FY14/15  earnings  estimates  have  not incorporated  contributions  from  its  first  rig,  which  is  expected  to  be delivered to Coco by 2HFY14.
  • FY13  full-year  results  beat  both  our  and consensus’  estimates  by  9%  and  7% respectively
  • Better  profit  margin  drove  FY13  full-year earnings higher by 28%
  • Approximately 50% of its current orderbook of MYR2.5bn consists of the rig charter contract
  • JU  rig  charter  contract  to  provide  steady stream of income to Coco
  • We  estimated  a  MYR0.49/share  contribution from the entire 20-year charter contract
  • Approximately 50% of its current orderbook of MYR2.5bn consists of the rig charter contract
  • Healthy  shipbuilding  orderbook  of approximately MYR1.26bn

FY13 full-year results beat forecasts
FY13 full-year results beat forecasts. Coco’s full-year net profit of MYR151.6m beat both our and consensus’ estimates by 9%/7% respectively. FY13 net profit rose by an impressive 29% from MYR118.6m in FY12. We believe this was mainly due to:
i) lower raw material costs as steel prices had remained depressed through FY13,and ii) better profit margin derived from the selling of more sophisticated vessels during the year. Hence, overall EBITDA margin improved strongly to 21% in FY13 vs 16% in FY12.

Strong 4QFY13 showing. Coco’s FY13 full-year revenue growth appeared to be flat. That said, 4QFY13 revenue surged 32% y-o-y and 31% q-o-q, while 4QFY13 core net profit jumped 73% y-o-y and 24% q-o-q. Management attributed this to the
increase in the number of vessels sold during the quarter – five units were sold in 4QFY13 vs four units in 4QFY12 (3QFY13: three units). This brought total number of vessels delivered in FY13 to 24 units vs 23 units in FY12.

Vessel chartering remains a non-core business. The segment posted a wider loss of MYR1.6m in 4QFY13 vs a MYR0.1m loss in 4QFY12. On a full-year basis, it remained profitable with profit before tax (PBT) of MYR4.0m vs a mere MYR0.4m in FY12. Management cited a lower vessel utilisation rate and lower gains derived from the sales of aged vessels.

Healthy orderbook with steady income
Healthy orderbook. Including a drilling rig contract it recently clinched, Coco’s orderbook grew to MYR2.5bn as of Feb 2014. The drilling rig contract amounts to MYR1.24bn, and approximately MYR1.26bn of the orderbook comes from the shipbuilding segment. The portion attributable to the shipbuilding is believed to be mostly due by FY14.

Officially a drilling rig owner in FY15. COCO announced in early February that it had clinched a MYR1.24bn drilling contract from a group of Mexican upstream contractors. The charter contract entails the supply of a jack-up (JU) rig with gas compression capabilities to Petroleos Mexicanos, a state-owned oil & gas company in Mexico. The contract is for a firm period of eight years, with an option to extend for up to 12 years.

Coco’s second rig will be delivered to Pemex in 1HFY15 and the charter contract is set to commence by 2HFY15. The JU rig will have the capability to manage sour gas for injection to the reservoir that it is commissioned to, in order to maintain pressure and production rate.

Our calculation suggested that the drilling contract shall contribute MYR0.50 to our fair value estimate when we include the following considerations: i) daily charter rate of USD150,000/day, ii) average working day of 350 days/year for the rig, and iii) the entire charter contract period of 20 years. As the rig is built to the oilfield’s specifications, we see little risk that the charter may not be extended to its maximum. Demand for OSVs remains resilient. Excluding the rig charter contract, Coco’s current orderbook for shipbuilding stands at MYR1.26bn. We believe nearly the entire orderbook is set to be delivered by this year.

We believe that: i) the average selling price (ASP) per vessel could have risen by 20-25% for vessels set for FY14 delivery, and ii) nearly the entire fleet is made up of new vessels, equipped with Coco’s new and improved technology. Management has always stressed on its aim to build and supply vessels equipped with better specifications to drive earnings and profitability. We also believe that Coco will indirectly benefit from the industry’s: i) MYR10bn worth of topside major maintenance and hook-up & commissioning and construction (TMM & HuCC) projects, and ii) MYR10bn worth of transport & installation (T&I) projects. Both umbrella contracts were awarded last year. We understand from some of the companies involved in the respective contracts that activities have not reached full swing at this juncture, partly awaiting required vessels to start major execution of the contracts. Therefore, we believe domestic demand for offshore support vessels (OSV) will remain healthy in the medium term.

oastal Contracts Bhd - Coasting to a stellar end


Period 4Q13/FY13

Actual vs. Expectations Coastal Contract Bhd’s (COASTAL) 4Q13 net profit of RM49.0m brought its FY13 net profit to RM151.6m. This is above both our (RM135.4m) and consensus (RM140.8m) full-year expectations at 112% and 108% respectively.

The variance to our forecast is mainly due to higherthan-expected margins for its vessel sales.

Dividends Final NDPS of 3.4 sen was declared, bringing full year DPS to 6.4 sen. This is slightly above our FY13E NDPS of 6.2 sen.

Key Results Highlights QoQ, net profit and revenue were up by 24.0% and 31.0% respectively due to the higher number of vessels being delivered (5 units versus 3 units in 3Q13).

YoY, net profit was also higher (+72.5%) mainly due to: (i) higher vessels sales, and (ii) better margins derived from the sale of vessels.

Outlook Net margin for the shipbuilding division is guided to be around 15-25% from FY12 onwards due to the normalisation of market conditions.

COASTAL's maiden jack-up rig is due to be delivered in mid-14, which will spearhead its move into an asset ownership model versus the previous build-and-sell model.

According to our channel checks, there are >40 jack-up rig contracts in South-east Asia that are expiring from mid-2013 to 2015, which implies abundant opportunities on the horizon. Moreover, there could be cross-selling opportunities with its entry into Mexico.

Change to Forecasts

Given the stellar shipbuilding results, we have increased our FY14 net profit by 11% to RM172.8m on the back of a 13.6% revenue growth (versus 5.6% growth previously) as we expect about at least 80% of the current order book to be recognised within FY14.

Given that investors are now looking at long-term prospects for the oil and gas sector, we also introduce our FY15 net profit of RM198.7m which features: (ii) 8.4% shipbuilding revenue growth and (ii) four months worth of jack-up rig gas compression unit earnings.

We highlight that the FY14-15E net profit forecasts do not include potential jack-up rig earnings which will be delivered by July-Aug 14. A win within this year will be a further catalyst to earnings.

Rating Maintain OUTPERFORM

Valuation Our new target price is RM5.76/share (from RM4.51) based on a target CY15 PER of 14x.

Whilst this PER valuation is above the stock’s historical average +2 standard deviation PER of 11.9x, we believe this is justifiable as it is moving into asset ownership (versus just depending on vessel sales).

Risks to Our Call (i) Lower-than-expected margins; and (ii) Inability to secure contracts for maiden jack-up rig.

Source: Kenanga

Matrix Concepts Holdings - As Good As Expected


Matrix Concepts  (MCH)’s  4Q13 results came in within expectations.  A 5 sen final dividend was declared. FY13 new sales expanded 15% y-o-y to MYR788m  from  MYR686m  in  FY12.  The  land  price  in  Sendayan  Tech Valley also hit a new high of MYR45 psf. Given the challenging market conditions, we continue  to favour  affordable  housing players  such  as MCH. We maintain BUY and MYR5.00 FV on the stock.
  • Within  expectations.  MCH’s  4Q13  results  were  in  line  with  our  and market expectations. While property development contributed 96% of the total revenue during the quarter, land sales made up the balance.   A 5 sen final dividend was declared, bringing full-year  gross  dividend to 35.5 sen, representing a handsome dividend yield of 9% for the year.
  • New sales climb  to  MYR788m.  FY13 new property sales of  MYR788m represented  a  15% growth  from MYR686m in FY12  (9M13 sales were MYR648.4m).  Sendayan  Tech Valley (STV) continued to be in demand. A  German-based  steel  components  producer,  Schmidt  +  Clements Group,  recently invested MYR140m to set up  a plant in STV. Phase 1 of the  plant  construction  will  commence  in  March  and  be  completed  by year-end, while Phase 2 will start in 2016. Upon completion, both phases will  require  a  total  of  150  staff.  We  understand  that  the  land  was transacted  at  MYR45psf,  in  line  with  management’s  target  to  raise prices..
  • Forecasts. We fine-tune our FY14 earnings forecast up slightly. Unbilled sales currently stand  at MYR437m, compared with MYR593m in 3Q13. Dividend  payout  is  expected  to  normalise  to  40%  after  an  exceptional FY13, due to the absence of dividend in FY12  as 2013 was  the year of IPO.
  • Valuations.  We maintain our BUY  call on MCH, with an unchanged FV of  MYR5.00,  based  on  a  20%  discount  to  RNAV.  Affordable  housing players remain the winners in this challenging market. Property sales will fare  better  compared  to  other  players  which  have  exposure  to  other higher-end  segments.  MCH  is  still  one  of  our  Top  Picks  apart  from Tambun Indah (TILB MK, BUY, FV: MYR2.08). Undemanding valuations, 10-15%  earnings  growth,  5-6%  generous  dividend  yields,  as  well  as catalysts  from  infrastructure  developments  and  rising  job  opportunities are the key factors underpinning our BUY call.




1、George Soros: 好的投资总是无聊的。

2、Howard Marks: 投资不仅仅是选择资产。

3、Jack Bogle: 损失是市场的现实。

4、Bob Farrell: 不要随大流。

5、Jeremy Grantham: 认识到你相比专业投资者的优势。

6、John Templeton: 别忘了要交税。

7、Barton Biggs: 没有任何关系或公式会长期有效。

8、Benjamin Graham: 小心市场预测。

9、Philip Fisher: 明白你投资的价值。

10、Warren Buffett: 在其他人害怕的时候,要贪婪。

11、Ken Fisher: 将历史铭记在心。

12、Charles Ellis: 做长线投资。

13、Bill Miller: 想一想市场如何对信息做出反应。

14、Thomas Rowe Price Jr.: 弄清楚谁在经营,以及他们为什么这么做。

15、Carl Icahn: 公司治理制度不是你的朋友。

16、Peter Lynch: 做足功课。

17、John Neff: 做聪明的投资,不要随波逐流。

18、Henry Kravis: 要诚信。

19、Ray Dalio: 理解制度。

20、牛顿: 市场是非理性的。

21、马克吐温: 要以史为鉴。

Jaya Tiasa - No turnaround in OER yet, still at 15%


- We reiterate our BUY call on Jaya Tiasa with an unchanged fair value of RM2.85/share based on an 18x PE FY15F EPS of 15.8 sen.

- Jaya Tiasa yesterday announced a 1HFY14 core net profit of RM38.9mil (+324% YoY) – representing only 33%-34% of our and consensus forecasts. No dividend was declared.

- The shortfall was partly due to a lower CPO average price achieved at ~RM2,153/tonne (-16.8% YoY) – 12% below our assumption of RM2,450/tonne for the full year.

- This is underpinned by a continuing low OER of 15%, despite FFB production volume of 447,346 tonnes (+20% YoY), which is 2% ahead of our forecast. As such, CPO production at 39,231 tonnes (+15.5% YoY) accounted for only 43% of our estimate.

- We maintain our numbers as the group could still manage to make up for the shortfalls in numbers given the anticipated higher CPO prices.

- Log sales at 382,360 cu m (-31% YoY) were below expectations – accounting for 41% of our forecast, albeit mitigated by a higher ASP of RM624/cu m (+20% YoY) vs. our assumption of only RM563/cu m.

- Plywood sales also fell to 79,029 cu m (-20% YoY), though this is within expectations as it accounted for 52% of our forecast; ASP at RM1,867/cu m (+12% YoY) was 18% ahead of our projected amount.

- Despite the continuing underperformance of its plantation division due to the young maturity of its oil palm trees, we remain convinced that it is reaching an inflexion point.

- We project a surge in prime mature areas to support its strong FFB growth – by 30% to 866,000 tonnes in FY14F, by 20% to breach 1mil tonnes at 1.05mil tonnes in FY15F, and by another 10% in FY16F.

- Given the growth prospects on existing plantations alone over the next 2-5 years, Jaya Tiasa will be least affected by Wilmar’s recent unveiling of its new “No Peat, No deforestation” policy.

- Additionally, Jaya Tiasa would have no issue to continue planting on its remaining landbank in compliance with Wilmar’s policy as these areas of 7,000-8,000ha have already been cleared and ready to be developed.

- We also do not rule acquisitions of existing plantations later down the road to further spur the growth of the division. We do not believe it to be a priority in the short and medium term.

Source: AmeSecurities

Barakah Offshore Petroleum - A Slow Start


Actual vs. Expectations Reported 1Q14 core net profit of RM11.1m which accounted for 14.3% and 15.7% of our and consensus full-year FY14 forecasts of RM77.6m and RM70.7m, respectively.

We deem the results as within expectations as the 1H of the financial year is typically weaker on seasonal factor due to the monsoon season.

We have restated BARAKAH’s earnings to include: (i) the one-off gain on disposal of subsidiary Vastalux Energy Bhd, (ii) one-off impairment loss on goodwill and, (iii) its IPO listing expenses.

Dividends No dividend was declared as expected.

Key Results Highlights

QoQ, revenue declined by 5% to RM82.8m mainly due to a decrease in the turnover generated from installation and construction segment as there was lesser revenue generated from barge chartering and T&I projects in the current quarter.

YoY, 1Q14 core net profit was down by 30.9%, mainly due to lower barge income and higher administrative costs as the company built up its orderbook and went for a public listing last year.

Outlook Management guided that 1H14 results could be seasonally lower due to the monsoon factor. However, things will pick up in 2H14 on the back of higher installation and construction activities.

The secured orderbook stands at RM2.24b which provides earnings visibility for next three years. We understand that BARAKAH has been actively involved in bidding for new projects with its current tender book of RM3.0b, comprising 70 oil and gas projects.

We believe that the commissioning segment is able to provide Barakah stable earnings as it has a 90% win rate in the commissioning market every year with its excellent track record.

Besides that, Barakah is looking to secure T&I international work from the Gulf Region through its existing joint-venture partner in Saudi Arabia, which is expected to be awarded this year.

Additional growth for the T&I segment will hinge on BARAKAH’s future asset expansion. We understand that the company might expand the asset base in line with the expansion in contracts awarded.

Change to Forecasts Due to change of financial year end (from FYE September to FYE December), we have adjusted our FY14E and 15E forecasts to RM111.5m and RM130.8m.

Rating Maintain OUTPERFORM.

Valuation We maintain our target price of RM1.98, which is based on an implied target PER of 13x on CY15 EPS of 15.2 sen.

We believe our valuation for BARAKAH is still reasonable as we are valuing it at a 13.3% discount to the 15.0x PER ascribed to industry peers such as ALAM (OP; TP: RM2.07) given its smaller asset base (it currently owns only one pipelay support vessel).

Risks to our call (i) A downturn in the oil & gas sector could result in delays in contract rollouts. (ii) Delay in the Pan-Malaysia’s T&I project, which will reduce the potential earnings being factored in our forecasts. (iii) Lower-than-expected margins.

Source: Kenanga

Monday, February 24, 2014

流动宽频业亏损收窄 杨忠礼电力业绩显动力


另外,MIDF投资研究分析员认为,新加坡西拉雅(Power Seraya)发电厂的营业额按年跌16.5%,拖累了整体数字。
3B竞标若失利 短期受压