Favorite Links

Saturday, January 4, 2014

10 stocks to watch in 2014


IT’S the start of the new year and investors get the chance to make their own choices on what stocks to buy.
Making the right decisions could make the difference between the proverbial pot of gold or losses by the end of the year.
StarBizWeek is suggesting some stocks worth looking out for. Some have strong fundamentals while others are driven by specifics including thematic, mergers and acquisitions or simply rotational plays.
ONCE a pure construction player, this company is fast transforming itself into a diversified group.
Its property segment, utility and plantation divisions will eventually provide solid support to the group’s total income base where currently construction is still the main driver.
Under its construction division, it has an outstanding order book of about RM1.2bil which according to estimates provides earnings visibility of at least three years for the group.
It will tender for up to RM6bil worth of jobs and near-term replenishment could come from the second phase of Petronas’ Rapid project in Pengerang worth some RM300mil, according to a note by JF Apex Securities. The project which involves the construction of a cogeneration plan is expected to be awarded early this year.
Gadang was awarded the job for the first phase of the project.
Under its property segment, some RM425mil worth of launches are earmarked for the current financial year ending May 31.
Gadang has also joined the PR1MA fray by being a partner to government-owned Cyberview Sdn Bhd. The first phase of their affordable homes project in Cyberjaya is expected to be launched in the middle of this year with a gross development value of RM150mil.
Pre-tax profit from Gadang’s property segment increased four-fold to RM4.3mil for the latest quarter from RM1mil a year earlier.
On its utility division, the company is said to be in negotiations to beef up its Indonesia water treatment capacity business where it has controlling stakes in five Indonesian water supply companies.
Its water supply division currently contributes about 10% to the group’s pre-tax profit.
It is also moving into the mini-hydro power generation business where in October it said it would pay RM3.06mil for an 80% stake in PT Hidronusa Rawan Energi, which is currently pursuing a 4MW hydropower project in Indonesia.
This is the company’s second purchase following the acquisition of a 60% stake in a 9MW mini-hydropower project in May for RM3mil.
Contribution from the mini-hydro power generation business, however, is not expected to be immediate as it will take at least two years for the full infrastructure to be put into place.
Gadang also hopes to ride on a potential recovery of crude palm oil prices which headed south last year
JF Apex notes that early harvesting had commenced in early 2012 and the group projected RM20mil of yearly revenue from this business upon maturity, which is about four to five years from now.
For its latest quarter to Aug 31, Gadang’s net profit soared 184% to RM7.1mil on revenue of RM113.5mil compared with a net profit of RM2.5mil on revenue of RM47.3mil previously.
The stock last traded at RM1.02 which is about nine times price earnings ratio to the group’s FY2014 forecast earnings.
JF Apex and UOBKayHian Research have a target price of RM1.43 and RM1.50 respectively on Gadang, suggesting an upside of about 44% on average from the current price.
- Sizeable and growing construction order book which give clear earnings visibility.
- Analysts project earnings growth of 32% compound annual growth rate from FY14-FY16.
- Diversification into property, utility and plantation segments.
- In net cash position, possibly growing dividends for shareholders.
- Slowdown in domestic consumption could affect demand for property.
- Failure to secure the anticipated contracts.
– By Yvonne Tan
2. Malaysian Resources Corp Bhd
A number of “monetisation” exercises poised to take place in the first quarter of this year should catapult MRCB back onto the radar of investors and analysts. Insiders say the exercises could include the disposal of a major non-core unit and the creation of a large commercial REIT (real estate investment trust), the latter possibly via a merger and acquisition of an existing REIT.
These exercises should raise enough cash to repay a significant portion of its debts. MRCB was in a net debt position of close to RM3bil as of Dec 31, 2013.
MRCB chief operating officer Imran Salim (pic right) said in a recent interview that the company was seriously making efforts to turn itself into a pure property-focussed group.
Imran is the son of Datuk Mohamad Salim Fateh Din (pic left), the self-made entrepreneur and property tycoon who emerged as MRCB’s new CEO in September following the merger with his privately held Nusa Gapurna Sdn Bhd. Both father and son are busy turning around MRCB but poor earnings in the third quarter spooked investors and analysts. MRCB posted a loss of RM122mil for its third quarter ended Sept 30, 2013 compared with a net profit of RM35.8mil a year ago as a result of significant provisioning, following an apparent kitchen-sinking exercise by its new owners.
But moving forward, there are positive catalysts. First up, is the strong possibility that the company could be announcing some major “unlocking of value” deals that could include the sale of a significant non-core business. There is speculation that it could create a mega REIT, which would be progressively used to inject more of its yielding assets into.
MRCB had also said there would be no more kitchen-sinking exercises in the near future. On the contrary, earnings could get a boost from capital gains from disposal of assets. Salim and son are also promising an improvement in efficiency through better management of operations that should translate into better margins and lower cost over-runs.
And they are positive on the outcome from their negotiations with the Government on charging toll on its Eastern Dispersal Lin Expressway (EDL). If successful, this would be a cash cow for MRCB.
- Monetisation exercises will see MRCB unlock value and de-gear.
- New management team led by Salim and son to turn around the company and enhance effiencies and margins.
- Stock price has yet to factor in the turnaround efforts.
- Successful negotation with Government on EDL toll.
- Can they find buyers for their assets at the right price?
- New management may not be able to integrate the incumbent team.
- Property market downgrade.
– By Risen Jayaseelan
RIDING on property magnate Tan Sri Liew Kee Sin’s name, Eco World Development Group Bhd, is a stock that should be watched closely. This is despite the fact that Liew’s name has never appeared in the company.
His eldest son Liew Tian Xiong, however, is the single largest shareholder with a 35% stake in the company. Junior Liew is also a director in the property firm at a tender age of 23.
After a reverse takeover (RTO) was done on Focal Aims Holdings Bhd for RM1.40 apiece, the stock has more than tripled to RM4.39.
Although there were no major announcements related to corporate exercises, save for the change in name, board, and financial year-end, the market is anticipating something positive from the company.
Sources say announcements on the company’s corporate exercise, which might include a placement and/or asset injection, could be done in the near-term.
Its net asset per share as of Sept 30, 2013 stood at RM1.27. Some of the listed company’s core assets included 426ha in Plentong and 1,011ha in Kota Masai, Johor.
The interesting part will be Eco World Development Holdings Sdn Bhd (formerly known as Maple Quay Sdn Bhd), which now owns some 30% in the listed company.
Before the RTO, the then privately held entity, was reported to co-own with another private company 1,214ha in Penang, Johor and the Klang Valley with a gross development value of RM30bil.
Home-buyers showed confidence in the company as they snapped up units in EcoBotanic and flooded its KL showroom before its official launch.
- Big name linked to the company.
- Possible near-term corporate exercises including assets injection.
- Experienced management team.
- Overwhelming response to product launches.
- Lack of information to gauge the stock’s actual value.
- Slowdown in property market.
- Low liquidity.
– By Ng Bei Shan
4. Daya Materials Bhd
DAYA Materials Bhd was one of Bursa Malaysia’s outperformers last year. The stock was up 116% for 2013.
With an existing orderbook of RM1.5bil, there are possibilities for more contracts and record profits.
Daya created waves last year when it won two major charter contracts from Norway. The earnings from these contracts are set to be realised this year.
Based on consensus estimates, Daya’s net profit is set to scale new highs of RM29mil (44% jump) for the year ended Dec 31, 2013 (FY13), RM43mil (47% increase) in FY14 and RM49mil (15% increase) in FY15, fuelled by its orderbook of RM1.5bil and an expanding fleet.
Over the last decade, Daya has been more focused on the downstream oil and gas (O&G) segment. It chugged along, growing organically until 2013, when it entered the offshore construction segment.
It formed Daya Offshore Construction Bhd (DOC) in September 2012. The arrival of vessels Siem Daya 1 and Siem Daya 2 proved to be Daya’s inflection point.
On Aug 16, Daya clinched a seven year charter contract from Technip for the provision of a subsea construction vessel. This project will run for 100 to 175 days per annum commencing in 2014 with an estimated value of RM250mil to RM440mil.
On Sept 3, Daya won again with Technip, when it secured another three-year contract for a period of 100 to 175 days with an estimated value of RM100mil to RM176mil.
For the nine months to Sept 30, 2013, Daya’s revenue jumped 110% to RM373mil and net profit increased 26.74% to RM18.9mil.
However, contributions from the North Sea are set to climb starting from the first quarter of 2014, as contributions from Siem Daya 1 and Siem Daya 2 kick in.
CIMB estimates that Daya’s revenue could further increase should Reach Energy Bhd, in which Daya has made an investment as an initial investor, acquire O&G assets overseas.
Reach Energy is set to become Malaysia’s fourth special purpose acquisition company once it gains the approval for a listing from the Securities Commission.
- Record profits.
- Orderbook of RM1.5bil.
- Potential contract wins from Petronas and Norway.
- Listing of Reach Energy Bhd.
- Failure to deliver on its contracts and replenish orderbook.
- Tough competition for the Malaysian RSCs.
– By Tee Lin Say
5. Engtex Group Bhd
A successful consolidation of the Selangor water industry could lead Engtex, already the country’s largest pipe maker by market capitalisation, even higher.
Going into its sixth year of stalemate, water talks have been gaining fresh traction since last year.
Already, the Engtex stock has reflected this, doubling last year to reach a high of RM1.78. It has since come off a little, last trading at RM1.61.
As the newly-structured water industry should involve the long-overdue replacement of the country’s aging water pipelines, Engtex by virtue of its track record and expertise is bound to get a slice of this.
Engtex chief financial officer Khoo Chong Keong in a recent interview withStarBizWeek said of the 130,000km of pipes in Malaysia, a third were made of asbestos cement, which has been known to cause cancer.
Assuming that just half of the asbestos cement pipes are replaced with mild steel and ductile iron pipes, the industry is looking at a potential RM5bil market.
Meanwhile, the Langat 2 project, which is crucial to the state’s impending water crisis, will also require some 50,000 tonnes of pipes worth RM200mil.
Engtex is touted as a frontrunner to clinch pipe supply jobs for Langat 2.
There is also Petronas’ Rapid project which will require some RM200mil worth of pipes.
On the east coast, Engtex is targeting some RM100mil in pipe orders for Kuantan Port City, a RM4bil industrial and logistics hub to be developed by 2020.
On top of these, some RM800mil in new pipes for housing projects and mega projects such as Johor’s Iskandar Malaysia is needed annually, Engtex revealed.
For its third quarter ended Sept 30, Engtex reported a net profit of RM10.4mil against a net profit of RM7.7mil for the same period a year ago.
For the nine months ended Sept 30, it had made a net profit of RM38.5mil against a net profit of RM30.3mil in 2012.
Maybank IB in a July report predicted that Engtex would make some RM42mil in net profit for its FY13 and RM48.4mil thereafter.
- Highly news-driven stock, poised to enjoy spillover effects in the event there is closure for the Selangor water consolidation industry.
- High potential for jobs given healthy flow of infrastructure projects.
- Do not secure the anticipated contracts.
- High capex requirements in the near-term, possibly capping dividend payouts.
– By Yvonne Tan
6. Brahim's Holdings Bhd
IN-FLIGHT caterer Brahim’s Holdings Bhd has a two-pronged catalyst moving forward. First, it is exploring ways to increase its market share in the global halalfood market, and second, it aims to become the third player to control the Malaysian sugar market.
The company’s core business is airport-centric, focusing on the provision of in-flight catering and restaurant operations. Brahim’s, through its subsidiary, holds a concession with Malaysia Airlines for the provision of in-flight catering and related services.
Analysts have likened Brahim’s business as a proxy to the vibrant airline industry minus the baggage of ticket price war and jet fuel price fluctuations. Currently, close to 90% of its revenue comes from its catering business.
Brahim’s bought a 60% stake in Admuda Sdn Bhd. Admuda has a licence from theInternational Trade and Industry Ministry to manufacture refined sugar and molasses for Sabah and Sarawak. The licence awarded to Admuda was the third by MITI in 37 years as sugar is a regulated commodity.
Brahim’s is looking to dominate these states by 2015 with the setting up of a RM150mil sugar refinery factory in the Demak Laut Industrial Park in Kuching.
Presently, the sugar market in Malaysia is controlled by Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd’s unit, MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd, and Central Refinery Sdn Bhd, with two sugar refineries each in Peninsular Malaysia.
Brahim’s refinery will have the capacity to produce up to 180,000 tonnes of refined sugar per annum with a potential to expand to 400,000 tonnes.
An analyst from Hong Leong sees Brahim’s pre-tax profit growing 12% to RM57.8mil in FY14 and 32.4% to RM76.5mil in FY15.
Meanwhile, an analyst from Alliance is forecasting Brahim’s pre-tax profit to grow 26.5% to RM64.9mil and 23.6% to RM80.2mil in FY15.
For the nine months to Sep 30, 2013, net profit jumped 163.6% to RM10.19mil while revenue rose to RM285.7mil from RM7.4mil previously.
- Sustainable earnings from long-term concession agreements.
- Further activities in the sugar refinery business.
- Maiden dividends.
- Slowdown in passenger movements.
- Termination of concession agreements.
- Earnings highly dependable on economic conditions/pandemics.
– By Tee Lin Say
7. MKH Bhd
MKH, previously known as Metro Kajang Holdings Bhd, came under the limelight after Hwang DBS Vickers Research initiated coverage, with a target price of RM5.40, providing 83% upside to its last done price of RM2.95.
The stock had since been on an upward trend, climbing some 65% year-on-year.
Before the research house issued the note, the counter came under the radar of Kenanga Research and SJ Securities Sdn Bhd.
A poll by Bloomberg indicates that there are three “buy” calls on the company.
Hwang DBS Vickers Research highlighted the company’s hidden value under its plantation segment.
The company had ventured into oil palm plantation with an acreage of 15,942ha in East Kalimantan since 2008.
The brokerage notes that the plantation business has posted maiden profits in its financial year ended Sept 30, 2013 (FY13) and is projected to grow at 31% three-year earnings compounded annual growth rate given its young tree profile, when trees are usually most productive.
“Despite the promising prospects, MKH is only trading at five times FY15 price-to-earnings (P/E), an undeserving 70% discount to the Malaysian small-mid-cap plantation peers’ average P/E multiple,” analyst Quah He Wei writes.
Metro Kajang is a well-known brand equity in Kajang and Semenyih. With a land bank of 202.34ha there, it is set to benefit from the rising land prices, given its low land cost and strategic tracts adjacent to two mass rapid transit (MRT) stations, he adds.
Its recorded unbilled sales of RM503mil in FY13 is underpinned by the rising demand for mid-market housing, improved connectivity via MRT and growing affluence in its focus market, Quah says, adding that RM890mil worth of new properties in FY14.
– Fast growing, cheap plantation play.
– Under appreciated.
– Beneficiary of MRT connectivity.
– Record unbilled sales buoyed by strong demand for affordable housing.
– Heavy focus on Kajang/Semenyih development
– Fluctuation in crude palm oil prices
– Headwinds in the property market
- By Ne Bei Shan
8. Scomi Engineering Bhd
SCOMI has been under the radar for some time. The last two big contracts it bagged were the RM1.85bil Mumbai monorail project in 2008 in a joint venture with India’s Larsen and Toubro Ltd and another job in Brazil worth RM5.6bil in 2011.
The fortunes of Scomi hasn’t exactly been bright. It has been in the red over the last three financial years despite having won big contracts. Its share price is also at one of its lowest points at the 39.5 sen level. Its 52-week low is 38 sen on May 3 last year.
So what is there to look forward to? Proposals have been made for the extension of the KL Monorail to Bandar Sunway. Malaysian Resources Corp Bhd andSyarikat Prasarana Negara Bhd have reportedly submitted their proposals.
Scomi, which built and owns the system of Malaysia’s only monorail, is the technical partner to provide the systems and cars (pic).
For the six months to Sept 30, 2013, Scomi recorded net loss of RM24.97mil on the back of revenue of RM110.85mil.
The results were mainly due to net unrealised foreign exchange losses of RM3.6mil for the quarter and RM18.3mil from both Mumbai and Line 17 projects.
The weakening of the Indian rupee has also resulted in the unrealised losses on the receivables from the client in the Mumbai monorail project.
Scomi’s focus at the moment is to strengthen its presence in Malaysia, India and Brazil amidst intense competition. These countries have committed plans to develop Urban Rail Systems in their major cities.
The rail segment will maintain its focus on the implementation of key projects in Mumbai, Kuala Lumpur and Brazil. Phase 1 of the Mumbai Monorail Project was expected to be commissioned in December 2013.
- Winning new contracts.
- Downside limited as it is already making losses and share price close to 52-week low.
- Failure to bag new contracts.
- Cost overruns in its existing contracts.
– By Tee Lin Say
9. Fitters Diversified Bhd
WHILE some investors find the company too diversified for their liking, there are a number of catalysts for Fitters that makes the company one of the smaller ones to watch in 2014.
First could be a listing of its wholly-owned renewable energy unit Future NRG Sdn Bhd, say insiders. Fitters core business is in fire-fighting.
The catalyst in this segment is a potential merger to form the region’s largest fire-fighting business.
However, this was supposed to have taken place earlier with Singapore’s Deluge Fire Protection Pte Ltd but some delays have occurred. Still, a third and increasingly significant division is property, that produced some attractive profits in the company’s last reported quarter.
In announcing its good Q3 FY2013 earnings last November, Fitters also said that it had entered into a Memorandum of Understanding with Molecaor Technologia S.L. of Spain to penetrate the market of PVC pressure pipes in Malaysia and other South-East Asian markets.
Insiders say that this could be a lucrative market for Fitters if executed well, considering that the Spanish company holds patents to state-of-the-art piping that hits the right price points and is the most suitable replacement for aging water pipes around the region. Banking sources said that Fitters was looking to float Future NRG in Malaysia or Singapore, which would raise funds for future expansion.
Renewable energy companies have been enjoying keen investor interest in markets in the United States and the UK.
Future NRG is involved in renewable, alternative and waste-to-energy projects such palm oil green mills, biomass plants and biogas capture plants.
- Unlocking of value from its diversified base via M&As.
- Dividends could be in the offing.
- Possible overseas listing of renewable energy unit and steady earnings growth.
- Execution risks and delays in unlocking value and property market downgrade.
– By Risen Jayaseelan
10. PJ Development Holdings Bhd
AFTER launching a takeover on OSK Ventures International Bhd, people are interested to know what shrewd businessman Tan Sri Ong Leong Huat is up to next.
He emerged in PJD as a substantial shareholder last November and was subsequently appointed non-independent and non-executive chairman on Dec 23.
He is also the managing director and chief executive officer at OSK Property Holdings Bhd. Ong has a 21.4% stake in PJD while he owns 57.8% of the latter.
Following the divestment of OSK Investment Bank Bhd to RHB Capital Bhd, the seasoned stockbroker had expressed OSK Holdings Bhd’s focus on property, among others, to develop the land next to OSK Plaza with a gross development value of RM1bil.
“Due to the lukewarm sentiment in the property market now, it could be a good time for him to carry out a merger and acquisition or some form of restructuring among the entities he own,” observers say.
PJD’s net asset per share was RM2.17 as of Sept 30, 2013, implying a discount of 38% compared to its share price.
Recently, the property player announced the sale of Menara PJD along Jalan Tun Razak, which will see it bag RM101mil that translates into earnings per share of 22 sen.
– Possible merger and acquisition play.
– Disposal of Menara PJD that translates into EPS of 22 sen.
– Discount of 38% to net asset per share.
– Slowdown in property market.
- By Ng Bei Shan

No comments:

Post a Comment