Favorite Links

Tuesday, April 30, 2013

#GE13 Highlight* Nothing for Investors to Fear


Malaysians go to the polls on May 5 and we’ll soon know the outcome of
the most closely fought general elections ever.

But no matter what the outcome, should it matter to investors?

Some analysts and fund managers that Personal Money spoke to do not
think it should matter greatly from an investment standpoint, whether it
is incumbent Barisan Nasional (BN) that returns to power or Pakatan
Rakyat (PR) that takes over, becoming the first opposition coalition
ever to helm the Malaysian government.

“Our view is that it doesn’t really matter which side wins. Ultimately,
both sides will be pro-business. It’s just a matter of how soon the
winning party can get its act together.

“What we don’t want to see is a hung parliament [which occurs if neither
coalition has an absolute majority of seats in Parliament] as there will
be prolonged uncertainty over who takes over the federal government and
this would affect businesses,” says Choo Swee Kee, executive director at
fund management firm TA Investment Management Bhd, which handles about
RM700 million across various asset classes.

Lim Chee Sing, executive director and head of research at RHB Research
Institute Sdn Bhd, says the election outcome shouldn’t matter to
investors who take a long-term investment view.  “It only matters if you
are taking a trading view, when you have short-term focus and the [daily
events] can affect sentiment.”

A BN win will mean a continuation of policies and an expected
follow-through on plans and projects outlined under the Economic
Transformation Programme (ETP), which was launched in late 2010 with the
aim of transforming Malaysia into a high-income nation by 2020.

This means there is more certainty that multi-billion ringgit projects —
such as the Mass Rapid Transit linking Sungai Buloh and Kajang in the
Klang Valley, work on which has already begun, or the controversial RM60
billion refinery and petrochemical integrated development project by
national oil firm Petronas in Johor — will continue as planned.

This would help remove any uncertainties and worries that investors and
businesses may have had about things like potential policy changes
affecting ongoing plans to spur the economy.

Hence, a win by BN will likely lead to a relief rally in markets after
the election result is announced, fund managers say. Bear in mind that
there has been a lot of cash on the sidelines waiting to be invested
once all these election uncertainties and risks are removed, they point out.

However, fund managers were also quick to point out that a PR win
wouldn’t necessarily be bad for investors either.

“It’s a chance for the Opposition to address the areas of concern that
investors and businesses may have that BN hasn’t addressed at all, or
enough of, and if PR can get their act together fast enough, this could
be something positive for investors,” observes the head of retail funds
at a local investment bank who declined to be named due to the sensitive
nature of the topic.

Analysts and fund managers generally concur that if the Opposition were
to gain control, there is likely to be a knee-jerk reaction, with
markets suffering temporarily amid a short period of uncertainty.

The Opposition would need to move quickly to assure investors of its
policy direction and any changes it wants effected so investors have a
degree of comfort that it can be “business as usual” even under a new

“While the sentiment for change is very strong, there’s also fear of
uncertainty.  There will be a knee-jerk reaction in markets simply
because of fears of potential changes in policy direction and sanctity
of contracts.

But once the outlook gets clearer, markets will rebound. Bear in mind,
any sell-off should be seen as an opportunity for investors to buy as,
don’t forget, all this is happening amid a backdrop of an improving
global economy. The election is just a ‘localised’ factor,” RHB’s Lim

Some analysts, however, do think that the outcome of the election should
matter to investors.

“It’s a matter of different policies. Let’s say the Opposition came into
power and were to scrap some projects that they don’t think are
feasible. It could affect the companies that are involved in those
projects,” observes Lee Cheng Hooi, head of retail research at Maybank
Investment Bank Bhd.

Depending on which coalition wins, it could also affect the cost of
doing business as each side has different views on things like reform on
tax structures and electricity tariffs. This has led to some companies
putting off certain plans until after the election is over. “That’s
created a drag on certain industries,” says Lee.

RHB’s Lim believes that of all the asset classes, including fixed income
instruments and cash, equities stand to give investors the highest
return amid all the uncertainty.

“Markets hate uncertainty, so as soon as investors get some certainty on
who wins and there’s a clearer outlook, the money will come pouring in
as there are a lot of investors waiting on the sidelines. I think it’ll
be a swift rally,” says Gerald Ambrose, managing director of fund
management firm Aberdeen Asset Management Sdn Bhd.

He notes that foreign funds have been more bullish than local funds on
Malaysian equities, having been net buyers for the last four months and
helping propel the FBM KLCI to new highs even after the dissolution of
parliament and the date of the polls was announced. Volumes on sovereign
bonds too rose above average following the election date announcement,
while the ringgit strengthened.

“The way the markets are being well-supported, it would seem like
they’re pricing in a BN victory,” observes Maybank’s Lee.

Investors should consider stocks in the consumer sector, such as food
and beverage or cigarette companies, as these are deemed to be
“apolitical”, he adds.

Foreign funds hold a high portion of  Malaysian government securities —
they held a record 43.4% of the bonds as at the end of last year,
attracted by a relatively high yield gap and a steady ringgit — but
analysts don’t think there’ll be a massive sell-off even if there were
to be a change of government. “We don’t think there’ll be a major
upheaval, [so] there shouldn’t be panic,” says Choo. 



(吉隆坡29日訊)達洋企業(DAYANG,5141,主板貿服組)作為泛馬計劃(Pan Malaysia)維修與岸外裝配和營運工程(HUC)強力競爭者,興業認為該股深具重估潛能,未來兩年盈利料取得強勢雙位數成長。

















Monday, April 29, 2013


Supermax hit after owner said he supports PR


KUALA LUMPUR (April 29): Shares of SUPERMAX CORPORATION BHD [] were sold
down today after its major and controlling shareholder openly stated that he supports the opposition alliance Pakatan Raykat (PR).

But TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD [], its main competitor which produces largely similar range of rubber gloves, became one of the top gainers today.

“My clients are selling Supermax as they believe Supermax will lose contracts to supply medical gloves to government hospitals if Barisan Nasional retains power,” said a senior dealer.

“We think Supermax’s losses may be gained by Top Glove. While my clients respect Thai for his bravery to say what we dare not say, we have to protect our own investments,” he added.

At 4.11 pm, Top Glove – the world’s biggest producer of rubber gloves – soared 31 sen or 5% to RM6.45 per unit on trades of 1.59 million shares.

It was still the top gainer in late trades.

But Supermax fell 8 sen or 4% to RM2.00, on 7.8 million shares. The latter was one of the most active and top losers in morning trades.

Stanley Thai, in an interview with Bloomberg, said he is joining thousands of fellow ethnic Chinese citizens in “abandoning support for Prime Minister Najib Razak and voting for the opposition for the first time in the May 5 general elections.”

“Why are the Chinese against the government -- it’s simple,” Thai, 53, said in an interview last month, which was posted on Bloomberg last Friday. Local newspapers carried the report over the weekend.

“We don’t want our children to suffer what we suffered, deprived from education, from career opportunities, from business opportunities,” Thai said.

Supermax, according to Bloomberg report, is the country’s third-largest medical glove-maker, now exports 24 billion gloves a year.

“We have been brainwashed from Day 1,” Thai was quoted as saying. “We were born and bred with fear and threats by our own government.”

In recent years, Thai has been hitting out the government on its policy with regards to the rubber glove sector. He is also seen expanding his manufacturing plants overseas, to as far as South America.

Saturday, April 27, 2013

无论谁将主王朝 建筑股选后续领风骚



首选金务大 依华建台

Friday, April 26, 2013

Unisem results reflect volatile semiconductor sector outlook


KUALA LUMPUR: Unisem (M) Bhd’s latest quarterly earnings reflect the volatile outlook for the semiconductor industry, which appears far from a full-fledged recovery, market consensus shows.

Analysts at Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd believe that the near-term outlook for local technology companies could continue to be overshadowed by a sluggish PC demand coupled with the prolonged global economic uncertainties.

“We believe that the industry recovery is likely to be seen only in second half of 2013, underpinned by a recovery in the global chip demand amid better global economic conditions,” they said.

Additionally, the flash HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index for April fell to 50.5 in April from 51.6 in March, but was still stronger than February’s reading of 50.4.

Alliance Research analyst Angeline Chin feels that the company’s management was now more pessimistic of its outlook than previously guided.

She said while earnings recovery was still on the cards, management sounds to be a bit more cautious on revenue guidance.

“Given the continued weak global economy, we believe Unisem will come under further selling pressure in the near-term. The situation is exacerbated by intensified pricing pressures from more sophisticated buyers,” Chin said.

The research house downgraded Unisem from “trading buy” to “neutral” given the limited near-term earnings growth prospects.

Investments risks in Unisem includes slower than expected global economic growth, weakening of the US dollar, rising cost of raw materials and overcapacity.

Chin said Unisem’s retrenchment exercise was still ongoing.

“The group’s workforce has been trimmed by 24% to 7,976 employees from the peak of 10,471 in mid-2011,” she said. Unisem narrowed its net loss to RM9.7mil in the first quarter ended March 31 against a net loss of RM13.5mil posted a year ago. Its revenue was lower at RM249.7mil from RM256.6mil last year due to reduced sales volume. The semiconductor manufacturer expects business to remain challenging for the rest of the financial year.

Affin Investment Bank analyst Kevin Low said the only positive from Unisem’s first quarter results was the improved earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) margins of 12.4% versus 12% a year ago, despite a 2.7% year-on-year decline in revenue.

“This is largely attributed to a more favourable product mix, cost savings initiatives which included a headcount reduction. The lower revenue year-on-year was largely due to softer demand coupled with the exit of certain customers, as a result of management’s strategy to discontinue older and less profitable products,” he said in a report.

He said global economic growth remains frail and will likely continue to remain an overcast factor on the sector. Meanwhile, the structural slowdown in PC sales will also likely limit a strong recovery as nearly 17% of Unisem’s revenue is tied to the sector.

CIMB Investment Bank Bhd research head Terence Wong said the company’s management had guided for 3-5% revenue growth in second quarter financial year 2013, but declined to say if it would be a profitable quarter.

He said management now assumed a smaller loss quarter-on-quarter in second quarter, adding that Unisem expects second quarter to see the full impact of its average selling price increase since January this year, and demand to start picking up, even if order visibility was still poor.

“However, we gather that the improvements in Ebitda margins would slow down. Management also guided that the company will be in cash conservation mode for financial year 2013. We expect a 2 sen per share dividend for financial year 2013, equivalent to a 2.3% yield.

“For financial year 2013, we expect the weakness from the PC and consumer electronics segment to be cushioned by smartphones and tablets,” he said.

Thursday, April 25, 2013

PINTARAS JAYA BHD - secured another contract at RM36 million.

Thursday, April 25, 2013

engineering firm, has secured another contract for the year, this time
valued at RM36 million.

In a filing to Bursa Malaysia, the firm said its wholly owned subsidiary
Pintaras Geotechnics Sdn Bhd had received a letter of award from Permata
Cermat Sdn Bhd to undertake earthworks, piling works and retaining walls
for a proposed condominium project in Mont’ Kiara.

The said works, said Pintaras Jaya, is set to begin on April 30, 2013
and has a completion period of 13 months.

“The said contract is expected to contribute positively to Pintaras Jaya
group’s future earnings,” the firm commented.

Less than two weeks ago, Pintaras Jaya announced it had received a
RM20.6 million from Mudajaya Corporation Bhd for bored piling works
related to the Mass Rapid Transit project.

All in, Pintaras Jaya has announced four contract wins this year, with a
cumulative value of RM133.56 million.

Daibochi - posted its highest quarterly net profit of RM7.1 million for the first quarter

KUALA LUMPUR (April 25): Daibochi Plastic and Packaging Industry Bhd
posted its highest quarterly net profit of RM7.1 million for the first
quarter ended 31 March 2013 (1Q13), a jump of 39.4% year-on-year.

In a press release, the company said its 1Q13 group revenue increased
6.7% to RM73.4 million, versus RM68.8 million previously, largely due to
increased sales in its packaging business.

On the back of its 1Q13 results, Daibochi is declaring a first interim
dividend of 4.0 sen per share, to be distributed to shareholders on 7
June 2013.

Thomas Lim, managing director, said: “Daibochi’s 1Q13 performance is
significant as it attests to our successful strategy in creating a
favourable product mix in our flexible packaging division.”

Lim is buoyant on the group’s prospects in the current financial year as
he anticipates a significant increase in export sales in 2013 on sales
orders from new multinational customers.

“The packaging industry is expecting an uptrend in raw material prices
in the second quarter of 2013. Nevertheless, we are hopeful that our
larger revenue base and improving productivity will help us to soften
the impact of higher costs,” he said.

“With this, we believe that the group is poised for another record year
in revenue and net profit performance,” added Lim.

销售强劲营业额高 恒大置地净利增28%


恒大置地的营业额走高的动力,主要来自集团的代表性综合市镇发展计划Pearl City,占集团营业额接近66%。
“我们也预计,发展总值为19亿令吉在Pearl City,将在2014至2020年间推出,这将让集团从槟城市场中至长期正面展望中获益,尤其是在威省(Seberang Prai)南部地区。

Tambun Indah net profit up


KUALA LUMPUR: Tambun Indah Land Bhd’s net profit rose to RM11.7mil in the first quarter ended March 31, against RM9.15mil in the same period a year ago on the back of higher sales.

Its revenue for the quarter grew 18.7% to RM78.3mil from RM66mil a year ago. Its earnings per share, meanwhile, stood at 3.77 sen in the first quarter.

“The favourable increase in the revenues in the current quarter was contributed mainly by the property development segment, which recorded an increase of RM12.7mil or 19.8% in revenue compared to the preceding corresponding quarter,” the company said in the notes accompanying its financial results.

Is there another factor other than cholesterol and triglycerides causing heart attacks?


HEART-ATTACK-STROKE-MICROBE NEW YORK: Thousands of heart attack victims every year have none of the notorious risk factors before their crisis - not high cholesterol, not unhealthy triglycerides.

Now the search for the mystery culprits has turned up some surprising suspects: the trillions of bacteria and other microbes living in the human gut.

In a study released on Wednesday, scientists discovered that some of the bugs turn lecithin - a nutrient in egg yolks, liver, beef, pork and wheat germ - into an artery-clogging compound called TMAO. They also found that blood levels of TMAO predict heart attack, stroke or death, and do so "independent of other risk factors," said Dr Stanley Hazen, chairman of cellular and molecular medicine at the Cleveland Clinic's Lerner Research Institute, who led the study.

That suggests a TMAO test could enter the arsenal of blood tests that signal possible cardiovascular problems ahead. "TMAO might identify people who are at risk (for heart attacks and strokes) despite having no other risk factors," Hazen said.

The discovery also suggests a new approach to preventing these cardiovascular events: altering gut bacteria so they churn out less TMAO.

The study joins a growing list of findings that link human "microbiota" - microbes in the gut, nose and genital tract, and on the skin - to health and disease. Research has shown that certain species of gut bacteria protect against asthma, for instance, while others affect the risk of obesity. Last week scientists reported that circumcision alters bacteria in the penis, and that this change (not only the anatomical one) helps protect men from HIV/AIDS, probably by reducing the number of bacteria that live in oxygen-free environments such as under the foreskin.

"It's very strong work," Dr Martin Blaser of New York University Langone Medical Center, a pioneer in studies of the microbiota, said of the TMAO study. "They show clearly that human microbiota play a key role in producing TMAO, suggesting new approaches to prevention and treatment" of cardiovascular disease.


The new study builds on a 2011 discovery by the Cleveland Clinic team that, in lab mice, gut bacteria turn lecithin in food into TMAO, or trimethylamine-N-oxide, causing heart disease. In addition, they found, people with high levels of TMAO are more likely to have heart disease.

But that research left two questions hanging: Do human gut bacteria trigger the lecithin-to-TMAO alchemy, like those in mice? And do high levels of TMAO predict heart attacks and stroke in people many years out, not simply mark the presence of cardiovascular disease at the time of the blood test?

To answer the first question, Hazen and his colleagues had 40 healthy adults eat two hard-boiled eggs, which contain lots of lecithin. Just as in lab mice, TMAO levels in the blood rose. After a week of broad-spectrum antibiotics, however, the volunteers' TMAO levels barely budged after they ate eggs, the researchers reported in the New England Journal of Medicine.

"That showed that the intestinal bacteria (which antibiotics kill) are essential for forming TMAO," said Hazen.

Next, to see whether TMAO predicts cardiovascular events, the researchers measured its levels in 4,007 heart patients. After accounting for such risk factors as age and a past heart attack, they found that high levels of TMAO were predictive of heart attack, stroke and death over the three years that the patients were followed.

Moreover, TMAO predicted risk more accurately than triglyceride or cholesterol levels, Hazen said. And it did so in people without substantial coronary artery disease or dangerous lipid levels as well as in sicker patients.

Specifically, people in the top 25 percent of TMAO levels had 2.5 times the risk of a heart attack or stroke compared to people in the bottom quartile.

The reason TMAO is so potent is that it makes blood cholesterol build up on artery walls, causing atherosclerosis (hardening of the arteries) and, if the buildup ruptures and blocks an artery, stroke or heart attack.

Earlier this month, the Cleveland Clinic researchers reported that gut bugs also transform carnitine, a nutrient found in red meat and dairy products, into TMAO, at least in meat eaters. Vegetarians made much less TMAO even when eating carnitine as part of the study, suggesting that avoiding meat reduces the gut bacteria that turn carnitine into TMAO, while regular helpings of dead animals encourages their growth and thus the production of TMAO.

More studies are needed to show whether TMAO reliably predicts cardiovascular crises, and does so better than other blood tests. Experts disagree on how many people have no other risk factors but would be flagged by TMAO. Dr Gordon Tomaselli, chief of cardiology at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine and past president of the American Heart Association, guesses it is less than 10 percent or so of the people who eventually have heart crises.

Someone with high levels of TMAO could reduce her cardiovascular risk by eating fewer egg yolks and less beef and pork. But someone with a two-eggs-a-day habit but low TMAO probably has gut microbes that aren't very adept at converting lecithin to TMAO, meaning she can eat eggs and the like without risking a coronary.

Just as statins control unhealthy cholesterol, prebiotics (compounds that nurture "healthy" gut microbes) or probiotics (the good bugs themselves) might control unhealthy TMAO. For now, however, no one knows which prebiotics or probiotics might do that. In one study, probiotics actually increased TMAO-producing bacteria - "not what you want," Hazen said.

Neither will popping antibiotics work: bacteria become resistant to the drugs. Developing compounds that crimp the ability of the bacteria to turn lecithin into TMAO, Hazen said, is more likely to succeed. - Reuters

Tiger’s Singapore unit to drive performance: OCBC


Australian regulators’ approval of Tiger Airways’ (J7X.SG) sale of 60% of Tiger Australia to Virgin Australia (VAH.AU) means the Singapore unit’s performance will no longer be overshadowed, says OCBC. “Investors can now look to Tiger Singapore as the main growth driver for the group.”

It notes the Singapore unit posted “impressive” fiscal-9M13 revenue growth of 30.7% on-year to $444 million on passenger load-factor improvements, with fiscal-4Q13 continuing to show encouraging operating statistics. OCBC expects Tiger Australia’s losses to continue, although the group will take a lower 40% proportion, while Tiger’s other associate, SEAir, remains in its infancy and operating losses could still hit Tiger’s books near-term. “Despite the risk of a drag on performance by its associates, we continue to stand by our assertion that Tiger’s turnaround is ongoing.

Low-cost carriers, such as Tiger, will continue to benefit from improvements in emerging Asia affluence and corresponding increases in consumer demand from a value/cost standpoint.” It keeps a Buy call but cuts its fair value to $0.79 from $0.86 on its recent rights and PCCS issuance. The stock is up 0.7% at $0.69, extending Tuesday’s 4.6% gain.

Wednesday, April 24, 2013

The Better Part of Valor — and Your Trading System — is Discretion


There are many misconceptions about creating a mechanized trading system. Some feel that mechanized systems are better than discretionary systems as if they give a trader an edge. I think this may be true for those traders just starting out. However, I personally know many discretionary traders that have done just fine without systems. The key is to do what’s best for you. Allocators will give money to traders who can perform. Lastly, discretionary trading is a form of a system unto itself. More on this in another post.

I tend to see those traders who wish to become CTAs going the mechanized system route and those that are endeavoring to become prop traders go the discretionary route. What separates them is either years of experience and normally a focus on one instrument or sector.

Overall, I believe that it’s a great idea for a new trader to get to know and build systems from scratch with a simulator such as Trading Blox, for example, to get a very intimate understanding of all the moving parts that involve a trade: volatility, volume, price action, trends, and large counter-trend moves to name a few.

What’s lost on most most new traders is how their emotional intelligence is a major factor on their mechanized trading rules. Hint: they’re there whether you know it or not.

For example, if you are a risk taker in life, you’ll find that your personality type is manifest in your ultimate trading system. If you tend to be methodical and “slow and steady,” you’ll find that your approach to your mechanized trading rules is the same. If you don’t trust yourself, you won’t trust your system no matter how long you spend putting it together. If you have self-doubt, your rules will likely be the perfect system for generating tons of indecision and self-doubt.

Ultimately, all the decisions you make in creating your trading system are discretionary. That includes how much to risk per trade, positions sizes, entries, exits, and what instruments to trade. To say it in writing, there are no rules in creating your trading rules. That’s where your intelligence, emotional constitution, sense of self-awareness, and emotional intelligence all come together. I think the best traders are strong in all of these areas. Wisdom in these areas does not come easy. After I’d completed a great deal of what some of you are about to endeavor, I STILL needed to get my head handed to me. I documented a great deal of what I needed to live through in my book.

You are using your judgement and are weighing the tradeoffs between parameters and hypothetical outcomes to see which “feel” best. Feel here is emotional not intellectual, ie, “I’m scared and fearful about my long gold position,” not “I’m bullish or bearish on gold.” How you feel will affect your behavior and your behavior determines and predicts where you end up in life.

You can set up a system to be geared for triple-digit returns or for fractions of percentage points per month. You get to make those decisions, and as such, your system like all others has a discretionary element. But know this: if you swing for the fences, you’ll have to live with large drawdowns (realized and unrealized losses). You determine the calibration of these tradeoffs — and that is discretionary. Keep in mind, small hypothetical gains go with smaller drawdowns of shorter duration, and large hypothetical gains go with larger drawdowns of longer duration.

Discretion Two Times: Creating the rules and then following the rules.

Creating the rules is discretionary. Following them can be mechanical. The key is how much of your rules capture how you feel in the NOW-NOW and later-NOW. And that’s hard because there are those of us who believe that the future (the later-NOW) doesn’t exist: all we have is the ever-evolving moment of NOW, the NOW-NOW. Knowing how your feel later-NOW is hard to predict. But you’re likely to have an emotional system that you’ve been running for years, and as such, you might be able to get a sense how you’ll behave in the later-NOW because you’ve been doing it for years. That’s where self-knowledge is absolutely key.

[Your emotional system has the part that you're aware of and the other part that you either don't want to look at, or is subconscious and you're not aware of it. That's where a men's group or a Trading Tribe can do wonders for you. For me, I have always put my money where my Tribe is: I was a member of the IVTT for 2 years (while living in LA) and I also concurrently ran the LA Tribe. That means I had a Tribe meeting every week for 2 years.]

What makes your system completely mechanized comes down to your ability to follow the rules alongside your emotional system. At best, the two have converged or at least are running parallel as your grow both intellectually about using Trading Blox, for example, as well as learning a great deal about yourself.

Discretion can appear after you’ve built out your trading rules, even with the help of a simulator. You can get a signal to enter or offset a trade and not follow it. Over-riding your rules here is discretionary. You may not have a signal from your system, but have a bona-fide hunch about an instrument and you affect a trade outside your systematic rules and put it on. That too is discretionary.

Neither use of discretion at this point are bad, evil, or wrong. You get to determine the rules and how you want to stick to them. They are your rules and they are personal. No one can tell you what’s best for you other than you. Even if you look to Bill Dunn – a fully systematic trader – you can have an element of discretion in your trading.

Coastal bags RM434m deal


KUALA LUMPUR: Coastal Contracts Bhd has secured contracts for the sale of nine offshore vessels worth about RM434 million, raising its total sales order to RM720 million.

It is selling seven units of offshore support vessels and two units of oil barges. “Including the new contracts, Coastal has about RM720 million worth of vessels sales orders up to 2014,” it noted.

Higher fair value for glove makers


Reasons include positive sentiment owing to falling latex prices and H7N9 impact
PETALING JAYA: The fair value for a couple of glove companies has been raised amid a positive industry sentiment owing to falling latex prices and additional demand for gloves as a result of the H7N9 outbreak in China.
RHB Research in a report said it had rolled forward its valuation base year to 2014 from 2013.
“Consequently, our fair value for Top Glove Corp Bhd and Supermax Corp Bhd has been raised to RM7.11 (from RM6.42 ) and RM3.30 (from RM2.68), based on unchanged target price earnings ratio of 15.5 times and 13 times respectively,” it said.
While the research outfit believes it is still too early to determine the potential impact of the outbreak, further deterioration of the situation could result in a pickup in demand for gloves, particularly in the natural rubber gloves segment as latex gloves are more commonly used in emerging countries such as China, it said.
“Should the situation deteriorate and prolong, we believe Top Glove and Supermax would benefit most from any surge in demand due to their spare capacity (average utilisation rate of 75% and 80% respectively),” it noted.
Moving forward, it said demand growth for gloves would continue to remain resilient as it was still the “most basic” and affordable form of protection against viruses and disease outbreaks.
Furthermore, with latex prices softening in the near term (below RM6 per kg against an all-time high of close to RM11 in 2011) and the possibility of the H7N9 outbreak developing into a pandemic, sentiment towards the glove sector should remain positive over the next quarter, it said.
HwangDBS Vickers Research concurred that Top Glove appeared poised for an unexpected demand surge given its low utilisation rate (70%) and stronghold in the “entry level” powder latex gloves market.
Hartalega Holdings Bhd and Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd, both with average utilisation rates of 90%, would also benefit given their new capacities that are coming on stream progressively.
“But it would take three to six months before any visibility in volume growth can be seen (based on the H1N1 experience). If that happens, valuations could be re-rated,” it said.

It will be 12 months before Petronas can relaunch takeover offer for MISC


PETALING JAYA: It would be 12 months before Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) can launch a new takeover offer for MISC Bhd and not six months as previously reported. This is according to Section 34 of the Malaysian Code on Take-Overs and Mergers (2010).
Petronas' failed takeover of MISC had resulted in its share price dipping below the RM5.50 buyout price. After shedding 73 sen on Monday, MISC's shares managed to stage a mild rebound, up six sen to RM4.63 in active trade after the selldown on Monday seemed to have eased.
However, trading in the stock subsequently eased and its price dipped by three sen yesterday to close at RM4.54.
Investors were still considering if the stock was a good buy at this price, said one dealer.
Analysts have expressed mixed views on whether MISC shares were a good buy at these prices.

Tiger Airways rises on regulator approval


Shares of Singapore’s Tiger Airways Holdings rose to their highest in more than three months after Australia’s competition regulator approved a deal between the budget carrier’s Australian unit and Virgin Australia Holdings.

Tiger Airways shares jumped as much as 12% to $0.735 on Tuesday, their highest since Jan. 18. Some 10.7 million shares were traded, 7.4 times the average full-day volume over the past 30 days.

Virgin, Australia’s No.2 carrier, had in October announced plans to buy 60% of Tiger Australia for A$35 million ($44.5 million) and invest a further A$62.5 million to increase the fleet size to 35 aircraft from 11 by 2018.

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission said it had decided not to oppose the deal on the basis that Tiger Australia was unlikely to remain in the local market without the Virgin investment.

"With this approval in place, Tiger Airways can now look forward to commencing discussions with Virgin on its plans to grow Tiger Australia, and enable it to compete more effectively in the Australia’s budget carrier space," DBS Vickers said.

UOB Kay Hian said Tiger Australia will take over some of Tiger Airways’ fleet delivery and thus free it from capital constraints.

Tiger Airways is now free to focus on growing its business out of Singapore and its associates in Indonesia and the Philippines, the broker added.

Nam Cheong sells two vessels worth $73mil


Nam Cheong, Malaysia’s largest Offshore Support Vessel (OSV) builder, announced that it has sold two vessels worth a total of US$59 million ($73.2 million).

Two Accommodation Work Barges (AWBs) were sold to a subsidiary of Perdana Petroleum Berhad , an established, major offshore marine services provider for the oil and gas industry in Malaysia and the Southeast Asian region. The barges are 100 metres long and can accommodate 300 men. Each is also equipped with an eight-point mooring system and a 300-tonne crane.

Leong Seng Keat, Nam Cheong’s Executive Director, said: “Perdana has been a valued, blue-chip customer of Nam Cheong for the past seven years. As a major offshore marine player in Malaysia, Perdana stands to benefit from positive industry developments that would include the Pan-Malaysian Hookup and Commissioning works, an umbrella package worth a total of RM8 billion to RM10 billion ($3.2 to $4.1 billion). We are pleased that our established relationship with Perdana is helping to boost our order book and we are thrilled to be riding on strong industry momentum with them.”

The two vessels are of American Bureau of Shipping (ABS) class and are being constructed as part of the group’s build-to-stock series in one of its subcontracted yards in China. They are scheduled for delivery during the first half of 2014.

Nam Cheong’s order book hits RM1.4 billion with this latest win.









發揮潛能 認識自己長短處


有一句英文名言,「只有敢於走得太遠的人,才會發現自己能走多遠」(Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go – T.S. Eliot)。人往往有壓力下,能發揮更大的潛能,遇強愈強,進而克服困境、掌握心想事成的秘訣。

堅持到最後 才有機會嘗成功喜悅



1. 成功需要有排除萬難的決心

2. 抱終生學習的心態

3. 別計較付出多少,付出更多,才能得更多



Tuesday, April 23, 2013



































































Monday, April 22, 2013

5 Reasons Not to Buy Gold


Hulbert on Markets | THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 7, 2013

Conventional wisdom is that gold is an inflation hedge and a safe haven, but a new study finds otherwise.

Humphrey Neill, the father of contrarian analysis, famously wrote that "when everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong."

That's a sobering thought when it comes to gold, since the belief in gold's investment virtues seems to be almost universal.

For this column I am taking Neill's advice to heart, with help from a new study published by the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Mass. "The Golden Dilemma," by Claude Erb, a former commodities portfolio manager for Trust Company of the West, and Campbell Harvey, a finance professor at Duke University, calls the conventional wisdom into question.

I should stress that the study's authors are not predisposed against gold. For example, Erb told me, he frequently bought and held gold for the commodities portfolio he used to manage. Here's a summary of the study's findings:

Gold as inflation hedge

This is perhaps the most widely held belief about gold, and the one that the study's authors devote the most energy to analyzing. They found that gold does not live up to the widely held belief that gold's price in real terms remains more or less constant.

Over any of the time periods assumed by investors — from the short term to as long as 20 years — gold's real price has fluctuated wildly. Interestingly, Erb and Prof. Harvey told me in separate interviews that this finding holds regardless of how inflation is defined — whether it's based on government data, or the shadow statistics some think are more accurate, or monetary inflation as measured by money supply.

Gold as currency hedge

This is a close variant of the "gold as inflation hedge" argument. And it fares no better.

For example, the researchers found that the price of gold — both nominal and adjusted for inflation — in each of the three dozen countries studied tends to fluctuate more or less in unison. Currency fluctuations explain relatively little of the price change.

Gold as hedge against hyperinflation

This also is a close variant of the "gold as inflation hedge" argument. But it's worth discussing separately, since it's possible that even though gold does a disappointing job of hedging lower levels of inflation, it does a good job hedging against hyperinflation.

Unfortunately, the researchers find much to be desired on this front, too. Take what happened in Brazil between 1980 and 2000, for example, when — according to the International Monetary Fund — inflation averaged 250% per year. Over this two-decade period, according to the researchers' calculations, gold's price in inflation-adjusted terms dropped 70%.

What's more, this calculation relied on the official government statistics. If we make the reasonable assumption that those statistics understate the true extent of the inflation, the drop in gold's real price over this period would have been even greater.

Gold as a safe haven

Another widely held argument in favor of gold is that it hedges against the breakdown of geopolitical order. Thankfully, we don't have many opportunities to test this thesis, but the researchers find reason to question it.

For example, when the researchers focused on those occasions over the last three decades in which the financial markets suffered their worst returns, they found that gold's performance was more or less evenly divided between gains and losses.

Gold as hedge against low real interest rates

This is yet another widely held argument in gold's favor. And it certainly appears to be based solidly in the data. In the late 1990s in the U.S., for example, when real interest rates were high, gold's price was low. And in recent years, with real interest rates low, gold's price has been high.

Yet data from other countries paint a different picture. In the United Kingdom over the last three decades, for example, there is a very low correlation between gold's price and real interest rates — explaining only 9% of the change in the price of gold.


Are these arguments the final word on the subject? Of course not. The impulse behind contrarian analysis is not to close down debate but to pose hard questions. And, I think it's fair to say, many of us have not subjected our pro-gold arguments to rigorous historical scrutiny.

The researchers believe that there are other factors, beyond the standard ones that they investigate, that have a big impact on gold's price. It behooves investors to at least acknowledge that those other factors will greatly affect their returns over the short, intermediate and even longer terms.

One of the counterarguments that the gold bulls make is that gold's price has been manipulated and that, therefore, all analyses such as the researchers' are fundamentally flawed. One ancillary implication is that, because it is assumed that all such efforts at manipulation will ultimately fail, gold's virtues eventually manifest themselves over the very long term.

Interestingly, the researchers don't necessarily disagree. For example, they found that, over the very long term, gold does indeed appear to maintain its purchasing power. But, the researchers are quick to add, this tendency emerges in the data only when the holding period is measured over very long periods indeed — not years or decades, but over centuries.

So it's all well and good to buy the shiny metal because of its ability to hold its value over the very, very long term. But, the researchers find, you shouldn't use that argument to justify shorter-term expectations for gold, since it may be only your distant heirs several generations hence who will reap the rewards.

Gold’s fair value is $800 an ounce


Mark Hulbert
April 16, 2013, 8:30 a.m. EDT

Gold’s fair value is $800 an ounce

Commentary: What price is justified by gold’s fundamentals?
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Gold’s bear market is just beginning.

That’s the depressing assessment from Claude Erb, a former commodities portfolio manager for Trust Company of the West, and co-author — with Campbell Harvey, a Duke University university finance professor — of an academic study from last June that is looking to be increasingly prophetic.

Gold prices plummet, but not at jewelry stores

Gold prices may be down more than 20% since 2011, but those looking to wear the precious metal rather than invest in it won’t find a similar decline at the jewelry counter.

In that study, the authors calculate that gold’s fair value is close to $800 an ounce. Though many of gold’s true believers were inclined to dismiss such a bearish projection when their study came out, it’s beginning to be taken a lot more seriously: Bullion’s recent slaughter has eliminated more than 40% of what a year ago they concluded was bullion’s overvaluation — including $240 over the last week alone.

These developments prompted me to check in with them to see if these recent developments had in anyway softened their bearish assessment.

No such luck.

On the contrary, Erb told me Monday morning, he thinks it is unrealistic to expect gold’s decline “to play itself out very quickly.” Referring to the five stages of grief that were made famous by Elisabeth Kubler-Ross, he believes the gold market right now is just in the first stage: denial.

The next four stages, for those of you who need reminding, are anger, bargaining, depression and, finally, acceptance.

As evidence of many gold investors being in denial, Erb referred to the large number of institutional investors and hedge fund managers who continue to own substantial gold positions. The “Denialists are like those in 2007 who thought real estate would go up forever, or Jim Glassman’s famous book at the top of the Internet Bubble projecting DJIA 36,000.”

Erb continued that these institutional investors and hedge-fund managers in coming days will have a lot of explaining to do with clients for why they didn’t anticipate gold’s plunge — and to convince those clients in any case why they should continue to invest in gold.

If those investors and managers lose the faith and decide to sell, and even if they don’t but if their clients do, then a huge amount of additional selling pressure will hit the gold market.

For a fuller discussion of the hard questions that Erb and Harvey ask about gold, read my early-February Barron’s column about their research. But to come up with an estimate of gold’s fair value, they calculate a ratio of gold to inflation going back as far as they were able to obtain data. They report that this ratio, when expressed in terms of the U.S. Consumer Price Index, has averaged about 3.2-to-1. Even at $1,400 an ounce, this ratio stands at 6.03-to-1, or nearly double this average.

And don’t be too quick to dismiss the awful implications of their research. You might not agree with it, but the authors don’t ignore the possibility that the under-reporting of actual inflation justifies a much higher gold price. They also respond to the argument that factors such as currency fluctuations automatically translate into a gold bull market. Finally, it’s not the case that they are biased against gold; Erb told me that he frequently invested in gold when he was a commodities fund manager. (Click here to read their full study.)

Erb said that gold’s recent plunge is the all-too-predictable result of an asset whose price has become disconnected from fundamental value. While he allowed that gold could very well stage a powerful rally from here, he predicted that its final bear-market low will be a lot lower than where it stands today. After all, every time in history in which gold’s price has deviated significantly from fair value — as he and Prof. Harvey calculate it — it eventually has returned to it.

Click here to learn more about the Hulbert Financial Digest.

Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Chapel Hill, N.C. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980. Follow him on Twitter @MktwHulbert.

大选NAP因素买家观望 4 月汽车销量料回落


另外,铝合金轮圈(alloy wheel)和商用车产量增长,将有望推高MBM资源未来盈利,分析员维持“买进”评级。