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Thursday, November 29, 2012

分析員:未將所有資產納入產託‧KLCC產託週息率或達6.3%

Source: http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/67722


(吉隆坡28日訊)KLCC產業(KLCCP,5089,主板產業組)打造的“合訂"KLCC產業投資信托(KLCC REIT)雖有別於一般的產托股,但仍受分析員唱好,除了成為馬股規模最大的產托股,股息派發更顯得誘人,預計最高可捎來6.3%週息率,遠高於過往的3%以下。
不過,也有部份分析員感到失望,因為該公司沒有將旗下所有資產納入產托中,僅將3項100%持有的資產包含在內,即國油雙峰塔、國油第三大廈及埃克森美孚大廈。
股價復牌漲12仙
無論如何,受到上述利好消息激勵,KLCC產業股價今日復牌跳空開出,以全日最高6令吉開盤,漲42仙或7.53%,不過隨後漲勢逐漸收窄,閉市以5令吉70仙作收,起12仙。
興業研究認為,KLCC產業無法發揮最大的稅務及股息效益,不過待其他資產成熟後,有望陸續注入KLCC產托內,包括備受矚目的陽光廣場,成為日後重大的重估利好。
宏圖大廈料為下個注入資產
聯昌研究也指出,一旦宏圖大廈(Menara Dayabumi)完成裝修工程後,相信會是下一個注入KLCC產托的資產。
隨著部份資產轉換為產托後可省下稅務,黃氏唯高達研究預期這可推高KLCC產業2013及2014財政年10%至23%財測,每股派息額也料上升42%至88%,至分別寫下18仙及26仙,受惠於該公司的70%盈利將可豁免繳稅,促使派息率至少達90%。
過去該公司僅將41%至44%可徵稅可分配收益作為派息用途,不過成立產托後,派息率將至少達90%,意味著其63%投資產業收益將可免於繳稅。
每股派息額或攀161%
肯納格研究表示,KLCC產業2013財政年派息額將激增265%至6億3千900萬令吉,每股派息額也攀升161%至35.4仙,相等於6.3%淨週息率,顯著超越以往的2%至3%週息率。
興業指出,以2012財政年年度化盈利計,該公司可捎來27.9仙股息,相等於5%週息率;聯昌研究估計派息額將從2011財政年的17仙,跳升至2013財政年的32仙,受惠於70%至80%盈利貢獻處在產托架構下,而每股淨資產值則料從4令吉99仙,走高至6令吉14仙。
“KLCC產托的資產組合處於策略性地點,加上國油作為最大租戶,減低當中的風險。"
債券股稀釋隱憂消散
盈利正面
豐隆研究指出,在可贖回可轉換無擔保債券股稀釋隱憂消散後,加上全面持有國油雙峰塔將提高KLCC產業盈利貢獻,因而對每股盈利起正面利好。
在產托成立前,KLCC產業大股東——KLCC控股將全面轉換這批總值7億1千400萬令吉債券股,進而促使公司股本增長39%至12億9千萬股。
仍有能力舉債53億購資產
不過,在KLCC控股轉換有關債券股後,這也意味著KLCC控股母公司國家石油(PETRONAS)在KLCC產業的持股權將從目前的52.6%增至75.5%,並已申請豁免進行全購。
肯納格說,以“合訂"方式掛牌的KLCC產業負債比低企於15%,因此以產托領域50%負債比頂限計,該公司仍有能力舉債53億令吉,展開資產收購行動。
潛在成馬股30大成份股
“該公司擁有優先權向大股東KLCC控股收購後者旗下的產業,如布城Alamanda商場、KLCC會展中心及商貿酒店(Traders Hotel),而且城中城週遭仍有高達145萬平方呎未發展地段,可作為未來擴展計劃之用。"
黃氏唯高達提到,這項企業重組計劃將推高該公司市值至110億令吉,潛在成為馬股30大成份股之一,預定明年次季以“合訂"方式上市。肯納格則認為其龐大市值可吸引外資的目光。
另外,KLCC產業第三季寫下11億7千138萬4千令吉淨利,受惠於旗下資產攫取14億令吉重估盈餘,馬銀行研究將其2012財政年財測上調4.7%,以反映租用費揚升利好;以40%派息率計,派息額則料達15.2仙。
聯昌認為2013年盈利成長主要來自於零售業務,即陽光廣場。
(星洲日報/財經)

资产逾150亿规模称霸 城中城产业首创合订型产托

Source: http://www.nanyang.com/node/494426?tid=462


(吉隆坡27日讯)城中城产业(KLCCP,5089,主板产业股)将推出大马首创“合订型”产业投资信托(Stapled REIT),资产规模超过150亿令吉,是本地现有最大型产托的3倍。
城中城产业发文告宣布,配合以“合订”架构推出产托,公司将重整,包括:
1.向KLCC(控股)私人有限公司收购未持有的49.5%Midciti资源私人有限公司股权,收购价28亿6000万令吉;城中城产业发新股予卖方融资,Midciti是国油双峰塔持有人。
2.将国油双峰塔、Menara3Petronas和埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil)大楼注入产托工具(称为KLCC产托)。
3.以1对1比例将KLCC产托单位派发给城中城产业股东,并将这些单位与城中城产业股票“合订”,然后以单一上市证券方式在上市。
明年次季完成
文告指出,一旦完成重整,城中城产业股东将同时拥有城中城产业股票和KLCC产托单位,成为“城中城产业合订集团”(KLCCP Stapled Group)股东。
完成交易也取得以下成果:
●打造大马首项“合订架构”(stapled structure)产托。
●集团拥有超过150亿令吉对产业资产,规模比本地目前最大产托大3倍。
●成立独特工具,此工具将因本地地标型产业资产而具稳定现金流量稳定作用,也基于现有和未发展产业资产而增长潜能强劲。
●提高派息率,“城中城产业合订集团”有意派发至少90%的可派发收入。
●股东保留现产业资产组合的全面价值和持有权。
上述重整活动仍需取得相关当局和股东的批准,活动预计在2013年次季完成;联昌国际投资银行和花旗全球市场有限公司、分别是此活动主要顾问和国际金融顾问。
另一方面,城中城产业宣布今日(27日)下午2点半开始暂停交易,28日将复牌。

KLCCP an attractive dividend stock

Source: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/11/29/business/12384458&sec=business


Target price: RM6.64
WE change our valuation method from a 10% discount to revised net asset values to the dividend-discounted model, which lifts the target price as the company's commitment to pay out more than 90% of distributable income as dividends make it an attractive dividend stock.
But we cut earnings per share forecasts after factoring in dilution from new shares issued. KLCCP's nine-month FY12 core net profit of RM273mil made up 78% and 80% of our and consensus forecast due to better margins. It declared a dividend per share of 4 sen, bringing year-to-date DPS to 12 sen, in line with our 16 sen forecast.
KLCCP announced the formation of Malaysia's first-ever stapled securities structure. KLCCP Stapled Group has RM15.4bil in assets, 3.1 times the biggest REIT, and is committed to paying more than 90% of total distributable income as dividends.
We estimate that DPS will jump from 17 sen in FY11 to 32 sen in FY13, thanks to tax savings for the 70-80% of its earnings that are under the REIT structure, which would be tax-exempt so long as more than 90% of earnings are distributed as dividends. The stapled securities structure thus helps to unlock value.
We believe KLCCP Stapled Group deserves to trade at least in line with the bigger-cap retail REITs, such as IGB REIT and Pavilion REIT. This is due to its sheer asset size (RM15.4bil), largest market cap, most prime location in Kuala Lumpur city centre, best-in-class asset quality (the iconic Twin Towers), best tenant (Petronas), low risk profile.
We estimate that the new stapled securities structure will bring the following financial benefits: an increase in pro forma net asset value per share (as at December 2011) by 23% from RM4.99 to RM6.14, a drop in debt to equity ratio from 23% to 18% and a near doubling of DPS from 17 sen in FY11 to an estimated 32 sen in FY13.
About 70% of KLCCP Stapled Group's asset value will be from KLCC REIT while the balance 30% will come from KLCC Prop.
The stabilised assets (Petronas Twin Towers, Menara 3 Petronas and Menara ExxonMobil) will be injected into a REIT structure known as KLCC REIT while those assets that are not wholly-owned (Suria KLCC, Mandarin Oriental and Menara Maxis) as well as those with development potential (Menara Dayabumi, Lot D1 land) will remain in KLCC Prop.
These two separate companies will then be stapled together to form Malaysia's first stapled securities called the KLCCP Stapled Group.
An existing shareholder owning one share in KLCC Prop will also own one unit in KLCC REIT.
The resultant stapled securities will be quoted and traded as one security on the Main Market of Bursa securities and will not be able to be traded separately. KLCCP and KLCC REIT will share the same management and board of directors. This form of stapled securities structure is very popular in Australia.
The REIT manager for KLCC REIT will be a wholly-owned subsidiary of KLCC Prop while Maybank Trustees Berhad has been proposed as the trustee of KLCC REIT.
KLCCP adopts a low-risk developmental model that is non-speculative in nature. It is not its business practice to develop any new assets without first securing the right tenants.
This, we believe, is crucial as it eliminates the common development risk found in a typical developer. In any case, immature assets make up less than 10% of its RM15.4bil asset portfolio as the majority of assets is stabilised assets with little capital requirements.]
We believe there is still plenty of development potential in the KLCC vicinity. This could be injected into the REIT or the KLCCP Stapled Group in the mid-to-long term, in our opinion.

Lee rues Singapore as retirement home unless birthrate rises

Source: http://www.theedgesingapore.com/the-daily-edge/business/41366-lee-rues-singapore-as-retirement-home-unless-birthrate-rises.html

WRITTEN BY BLOOMBERG   
WEDNESDAY, 28 NOVEMBER 2012 11:52


Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said encouraging citizens to have more children is the biggest challenge confronting the island nation if it wishes to remain an economic juggernaut in the developed world.

The government hasn’t succeeded in impressing on citizens that “this is going to be a retirement home and not a vibrant city” if the population is unsustained, Lee, 60, said in an interview in his office in Singapore on Nov. 26. “We’ll be dealing with it over the next 10 years, and longer,” he said of the legacy of a falling birthrate.
Lee, in his ninth year as prime minister, plans to unveil a package of measures in January aimed at boosting the fertility rate from 1.2 per woman. At stake is maintaining the achievements of an economy transformed by the embrace of free trade, fostering of higher-value manufacturing and nurturing of businesses and services such as gambling and health care.

“You have to be able to institutionalize what we have achieved,” Lee said of the most important tasks for the country after its development under the leadership of former Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew, his father.

While developed nations from Germany to Japan have struggled with falling birthrates, Singapore’s size -- at 5.3 million on an island smaller than New York City -- means it lacks the domestic demand that larger economies can stimulate to sustain growth. Non-oil domestic exports are equivalent to more than half of the country’s gross domestic product.

GLOBAL CHALLENGE
“It’s an issue which many countries are dealing with,” Lee said. “None of them have come to any very satisfactory solution because the trade-offs are difficult ones.”

More than four decades after independence, women in Southeast Asia’s only advanced economy are barely producing enough children to replace one parent. Policy makers have tried and failed to reverse the declining trend since 1987, and handouts of as much as $18,000 per child, extended maternity leave and tax breaks have done little to sway Singaporeans to have more babies.

The government will debate its population policy in Parliament in January, Lee said in the interview. Areas being considered include priority housing for couples with young kids, paternity or shared parental leave, the defraying of childhood medical expenses, better pre-school and improved cash benefits for having children, Lee said in August.

AGING SOCIETY
The median age of Singaporeans will rise to 43.1 in 2020 from 37.6 in 2010, Bank of America Corp. analysts estimated in an April report. That compares with 23.9 in the Philippines, 31 in Indonesia and 28.4 in Malaysia at the end of this decade.

“It’s going to be tough, and we may only see a marginal increase in the birthrate,” said Chua Hak Bin, an economist at Bank of America who has studied the impact of Singapore’s immigration and foreign-worker policy. “Past attempts have met with little success. Without immigration and foreign workers, Singapore may suffer the same fate as Japan, which is a bleak outcome.”

Immigration has filled the gap for employers, highlighted by a strike among dozens of Chinese national bus drivers in Singapore this week that disrupted some services. The city is host to 2 million foreign residents, compared with 3.3 million citizens, and the increase in the non-citizen population has put strains on the housing market and public services.

Home prices climbed to a record in the third quarter, even after the government introduced six rounds of measures since the beginning of 2010 to rein in demand.
BUBBLE CONCERN
“We have had a property boom, almost a bubble,” said Lee, who previously headed the central bank, served as finance and trade minister and studied mathematics at the University of Cambridge. “It’s because liquidity is sloshing around worldwide and real interest rates are negative,” he said. “That’s a difficult problem for us on the overall property market.”

Singapore, which uses the exchange rate to manage inflation, probably won’t shift to an interest-rate regime to have more control over its borrowing costs, the prime minister said.

“It would be very difficult,” he said at his office in the Istana, which was constructed in British colonial days and renamed after self-government in 1959 for the Malay word for palace. “Our economy is so open. We are a financial center. For us to sustain high interest rates at a time where interest rates worldwide are at almost zero, I think is very hard. We’d be flooded with money.”

POLITICAL CHANGES
A widening wealth gap also has contributed to angst among voters, and rising support for the political opposition. The ruling People’s Action Party last year saw its lowest share of the popular vote since independence in 1965, at 60.1 percent. Lee, the country’s third prime minister, said the diminished PAP take hasn’t been a surprise.

“It’s what you would expect to happen as we have a change of generations amongst the population -- you are in a new age, much more open and interconnected,” said Lee, who entered politics in 1984 after leaving the army, where he held the rank of brigadier general. “The question is in that environment, can we still get governments which take a long-term perspective beyond the immediate election.”

The government is under pressure to placate voters without disrupting the influx of talent and labor that has helped the economy to more than double in size since 2004. Authorities have made it more expensive for companies to hire overseas workers by raising levies and requiring better educational qualifications for some categories of foreigners.

FACEBOOK’S SAVERIN
Even so, Singapore topped 185 economies to take first place in the World Bank’s ranking of business conditions for 2013, and has attracted the likes of Facebook Inc. co-founder Eduardo Saverin, who renounced U.S. citizenship in 2011 to work and live in the city.

Nominal GDP, which isn’t adjusted for inflation, more than doubled to US$240 billion ($293 billion) in 2011 from about US$109 billion at the end of 2004, the year Lee took office. Singapore, located off the southern tip of the Malaysian peninsula and home to one of the world’s busiest container ports, has diversified by luring pharmaceutical companies to build plants and ending a four- decade ban on casinos.

“Economically, it’s been a great success,” Lee said of the contribution of the casinos run by Genting Singapore Plc and Las Vegas Sands Corp. to the island’s growth. “Socially, the impact has been about what we expected it to be,” he said. “I think we did the right thing.”

MARITIME DISPUTES

Turning to foreign policy, Lee said negotiations on maritime disputes between Southeast Asian nations and China should be between countries that are claiming the waters. The Philippines and Vietnam, fellow members with Singapore of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, have seen tensions escalate in the past year with China over areas of the South China Sea that may hold energy reserves.

Asean members have disagreed over whether to pursue talks on the dispute in multilateral gatherings, such as the East Asia Summit earlier this month attended by U.S. President Barack Obama. The Obama administration has elevated the role of Asia in American foreign policy, in a so-called pivot toward the region.

Lee said the U.S.’s focus on Asia should be “sustained over a long period of time, rather than spasmodically.”

“I think it needs to be done across the board and in a benign but powerful approach, rather than in a belligerent fashion,” he said.

With the next national election not due until 2016, Lee declined to identify his most important contribution as a leader, saying “I don’t think we should give ourselves report cards.”

“You cannot come to a verdict yet because these are long- term issues -- talking about population, talking about immigration, whether it works or not. You will only know after a generation but you have to think about them now,” he said.

Religare downgrades Olam to ‘sell’

Source: http://www.theedgesingapore.com/the-daily-edge/business/41374-religare-downgrades-olam-to-sell.html


Religare Capital Markets downgraded Olam International to ‘sell’ from ’buy’ and cut its target price to $1.40 from $2.40, as it expects the commodity trader’s shares to be weighed down by concerns raised by short-seller Muddy Waters.
By 12:26 p.m., Olam shares were down 0.96% at $1.55, off an intraday low of $1.465, which was a three-and-a-half year low. Its shares have plummeted 27.5% since the start of the year, compared with a 13.5% rise in the Straits Times Index.

"Olam shares will face difficulty re-rating upwards and sustaining even a moderate earnings multiple for the next few quarters, even if the financial risks Muddy Waters warns of don’t materialise," Religare said in a note.

The brokerage noted Olam’s guidance that it won’t be generating positive free cash flow until 2015, making it hard for the company to completely dispel the concerns raised.

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

首9月符預期‧稅率或反彈‧安聯保險前景待觀察

Source: http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/67645


(吉隆坡27日訊)安聯保險(ALLIANZ,1163,主板金融組)2012財政年首9個月表現符合預期,分析員認為代理和投資收入成長為主要功臣,但有效核心稅率卻顯著走跌,引發稅率可能強勁反彈的憂慮,因此普遍維持觀望態度。
僑豐研究指出,安聯保險2012財政年首9個月淨利達1億6千360萬令吉,表現超越市場預期,若扣除採納大馬財報標準(MFRS)效益,其今年迄今核心盈利達1億3千360萬令吉,相等於按年成長36.6%。
“總保費成長繼續超越大市,其中普險和壽險分別成長15.1%和12.7%。"
其中,安聯保險普險和壽險業務持續獲龐大代理支撐,估計今年為止代理貢獻從首季的90%提昇至93%,集團有望在2015年達到1萬5千位代理目標。
但達證券認為,儘管按年業務表現強勁,但安聯保險按季淨利卻下跌7.4%,歸咎於再保者高補貼導致總保費僅按季成長1.5%。
稅率或反彈至逾30%
同時,僑豐說,值得注意的是,安聯保險第三季有效核心稅率僅26%,遠低於次季和去年同期的34%和36%,更拉低今年為止有效稅率至31%,因此預計稅率可能反彈至逾30%的歷史水平,需尋求管理層對此進一步解釋。
有鑑於此,興業研究維持安聯保險2012至2014財政年2億零780萬令吉、2億5千270萬令吉和2億9千840萬令吉淨利目標不變。
(星洲日報/財經)

Laxey sells iCapital.biz stake

Source: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/11/28/business/12380020&sec=business


PETALING JAYA: Laxey Partners Ltd has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in closed-end fund iCapital.biz Bhd.
According to a filing with Bursa Malaysia, Laxey had sold 3.28 million shares in the open market and had ceased to be a substantial shareholder from Nov 21.
Prior to this disposal, Laxey earlier in the month possessed a 6.89% stake or 9.65 million shares in iCapital.

General election will be benchmark for investor appetite, uncertainty drives selling out

Source: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/11/28/business/12377456&sec=business


KUALA LUMPUR: The outcome of the upcoming general election (GE) will set the benchmark to determine the level of investor appetite, which is currently suppressed, according toEastspring Investments Bhd chief investment officer-equities Yvonne Tan.
“Due to this uncertainty, we are already seeing some selling out mainly by local institutions but foreign investment inflows are actually quite steady.
“A lot of money is staying on the sidelines now where some equity funds have the mandate to hold on up to 25% cash. Political risk could pose a major overhang to the stock market but as long as there is no major shocking news in the GE, money would start flowing into the market again,” she told the press after the Regional & Malaysian Economic Outlook for 2013 presentations yesterday.
Looking at various upcoming events, Tan predicted the most feasible window for calling elections would be in March next year.
Without siding any political wing, Tan said any kind of uncertainties would not be good for the equity market, and if the Government continued to rule after the GE, it would be quite positive to boost investor appetite, who are now holding on to their cash.
On the contrary, if the Opposition should come into power, Tan said as in instances elsewhere, this can be quite negative for the stock markets as there would be a lot of uncertainties.
“If this happens, foreign investors might want to stay out of the market until things get clearer and certain,” she said.
In a broader sense, Tan said there was an ample liquidity in the market and corporate earnings had been resilient.
“Corporate earnings have been rising, are forecast to be around RM35bil this year and nearing RM40bil next year.
“Year-to-date, fund raised via initial public offerings in the country was the highest in the region at RM18.3bil and Bursa Malaysia is expected to repeat the success next year,” she said.
Tan added that although Malaysian equity valuation was not cheap, compared with other Asian counterparts, it was not stretched, compared with its own historical long-term average and it was also well supported by local institutional funds.
At the macro level, Tan said it would still be a growth story for Malaysia's economy next year driven by domestic consumption.
Malaysia's third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.2% year-on-year, better than market expectation. It is forecast to grow by 4.5% to 5.5% in 2013.
“It will also start a investment revival, led by the private sector, especially in infrastructure and oil and gas spending,” she said.
Externally, Eastsprings Investments (Singapore) Ltd global strategist Robert Rountree said headwinds in the eurozone and the United States were blowing away while China's economy was cooling down. “Overall, the negative perception is much stronger than the reality.”
For example, Rountree cited although eurozone's budget deficit as a percentage of GDP was not improving as much as they would like it, it was getting better.
“In fact, we made quite good money in Italy, Germany and the United Kingdom.
“Although European banks remain highly leveraged, the top 22 banks in the US loan-to-deposit ratio remain healthy and the top 26 Asian banks are in excellent shape,” he said.
For the United States, Rountree said the underlying growth was encouraging with increasing retail sales and its high yield stocks were one of the best performing assest classes.
On Asia as a whole, Rountree said the outlook was still good even after all the forecast dowgrading. “In general, Asian cyclical sectors are looking attractive compared with Asia's defensive sectors.
“For China specifically, although growth is slowing, it is still good with forecasted growth of 8.1% next year,” he said.

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Maybank raises Sheng Siong target price

Source: http://www.theedgesingapore.com/the-daily-edge/business/41311-maybank-raises-sheng-siong-target-price-.html


Maybank Kim Eng raised its target price for supermarket operator Sheng Siong Group to $0.60 from $0.52 and kept its ‘buy’ rating, citing its high growth potential and improving efficiency.

By 9:52 a.m., Sheng Siong shares were unchanged at $0.49, and have gained 11.4% since the start of the year, compared with the FTSE ST Small Cap Index’s  21.4% rise.
Sheng Siong is able to maximise its store space while designing each store to suit different customer demographics in the area, Maybank noted.

The supermarket operator also offers the lowest prices in Singapore, while investing in technology such as electronic price tagging to improve its efficiency and allow high inventory turnover.

Maybank is pegging Sheng Siong’s valuations to competitor Dairy Farm International’s 12-month forward price to earnings ratio of 27 times, with a 20% discount.

Citi cuts Sembcorp Marine target price

Source: http://www.theedgesingapore.com/the-daily-edge/business/41312-citi-cuts-sembcorp-marine-target-price-.html


Citigroup cut its target price on rigbuilder Sembcorp Marine to $5.40 from $6.10 and kept its ‘buy’ rating, citing smaller revenue recognition and lower margin assumptions.

By 10:59 a.m., Sembcorp Marine shares were flat at $4.39 and have risen 15% since the start of the year, compared with the Straits Times Index’s 13.4% gain.
Citi cut its 2012-2013 earnings per share estimates for Sembcorp Marine by 4-11%, but raised its 2014 estimates by 6% to account for higher repair contributions and drillship sales.

The brokerage expects Sembcorp Marine’s earnings to bottom this year and see a strong rebound in 2013-2014, adding that it was “upbeat on the exploration and production cycle and believe it will continue into 2013, underpinned by demand for broad mix of products.”

UOB-KayHian tips re-rating for oil services sector

Source: http://www.theedgesingapore.com/the-daily-edge/business/41314-uob-kayhian-tips-re-rating-for-oil-services-sector-.html


UOB KayHian stays Overweight on the oil services sector, tipping a new upcycle. “Charter rates are increasing, capex is back with the oil price recovery, and demand in Asia-Pacific is expected to see a strong growth. We believe it is a matter of time before a re-rating occurs.” 

Ezion has added service rigs to its fleet to fast track growth and it has a first-mover advantage in liftboats, it says. It rates Ezion Buy with $2.00 target; it has a technical Buy call with $1.68 target. Ezra is transforming into a global deepwater subsea contractor from a regional OSV player, it says, expecting the net profit uptrend to continue. It rates Ezra Buy with $1.53 target; on a technical basis, it tips waiting to see if the stock is resisted at $1.06 and $1.16. 

Nam Cheong is on track to ride Malaysia’s oil and gas upcycle, it says, viewing it as a major beneficiary of government-owned Petronas’ five-year capex plan. It keeps a Buy call with $0.30 target; technically, it tips a $0.27 target if the stock is able to rebound after consolidating. Nam Cheong is flat at $0.24, Ezion is up 1.1% at $1.41 and Ezra is up 1% at $1.06.

Singapore is least attractive Asean market: Morgan Stanley

Source: http://www.theedgesingapore.com/the-daily-edge/business/41315-singapore-is-least-attractive-asean-market-morgan-stanley-.html


Singapore has the poorest earnings-growth visibility, it says, expecting MSCI Singapore FY12-14 earnings CAGR at 4.0% vs consensus expectations for Asia ex-Japan earnings CAGR of 11.4% over the same period. It expects Singapore could see further downward earnings revisions over the next two years on weak global growth and margin pressures.

It notes Singapore is the only Asean market trading 5.9% below its long-term average P/E; it expects valuations will remain lower for longer on the earnings-growth slowdown. But it still recommends a defensive dividend strategy, expecting as long as global rates and growth remain low, dividend-yielding stocks will continue to do well.

For the Singapore names on its Asean focus list picks, it tips CapitaMalls Asia (JS8.SG) among domestics with high growth visibility, Golden Agri (E5H.SG) and First Resources(EB5.SG) as consumption commodities and SingTel (Z74.SG), Ascendas REIT(A17U.SG), Keppel (BN4.SG) and Olam (O32.SG) for its attractively valued and dividend yield theme.

Monday, November 26, 2012

核心盈利逊色 亚航盈利预测下调

Source: http://www.nanyang.com/node/493605?tid=462


(吉隆坡23日讯)日前公布最新业绩的亚航,由于核心盈利表现不如预期,遭到大部分分析员下调盈利预测和目标价。
肯南嘉研究分析员指出,亚航首9个月核心净利录得4亿6400万令吉,仅达他们与市场全年预期的53%和48%,归咎于高涨维修成本、日本亚航创造盈利步伐缓慢,及辅助收入不及预期。
他们针对亚航2012和2013财年盈利预测,分别下调13%与16%。
由此,亚航的目标价被分析员下修至3.07令吉,在股价上升空间有限之际,评级也被下调至“跟随大市”。
视业绩表现仅稍微低于预测,而维持亚航盈利预测的MIDF研究分析员解释,因为接下来的2012财年末季,将进入传统的假期旺季,所以预期亚航将交出更佳的业绩数据。
“对于来自新航空———Malindo Airways的竞争威胁,我们认为投资者在亚航股价上的反应过度。”
股价疲软
微幅调降亚航盈利预测的艾芬投银分析员也表示,预期亚航2012财年末季盈利表现强劲。
“最近亚航股价表现疲软,正好提供累积该股的良机。”
惟分析员指出,投资亚航的关键风险也包括,目前持有50%股权的外资,潜伏着突然抛售的风险。

Sunday, November 25, 2012

世界美女最多的十大国家


Source: http://travel.chinese-luxury.com/travel/20121109/24649.html
美女1
拉脱维亚
世界上最愁嫁女儿的国家,不要以为是姑娘们不够优秀,只是男女比例差太大,名列世界第一。有专家分析认为,这个波罗的海沿岸的小国的水土和气候可能更适合于女性胎儿和婴儿的存活和成长。想象一下,满大街都是单身的金发碧眼女大学生们的感觉,绝对可以被冠以“男人们最向往的天堂”的名号。性格开朗活泼的拉脱维亚姑娘们为了摆脱单身可以说是不放过任何一个机会,因此经常有人被欺骗并强迫从事色情行业,如何保护未婚女性也成了该国政府最急于解决的难题。

美女2
埃塞俄比亚
可以说是非洲的美女之国,在很多选美比赛中,都曾经出现过埃塞俄比亚姑娘的身影,虽然获得奖项并不多,但绝对是过目难忘,谁能想到在这个曾经饥荒过度的非洲国家竟孕育着这么多婀娜的女性。埃塞俄比亚姑娘是以身材修长,眉目清秀著称,没有印象中非洲人那么黑,而且都有一个整容者们向往的高鼻梁,细眉大眼,当然也拥有一口天生整齐洁白的牙齿,带有一部分闪米特人的面貌特征。

美女3
拉丁美洲
拉美的美女的多种族混血造成了她们与生俱来的魅力。而巴西姑娘热情奔放也是最吸引人的特征,她们的美是一种洋溢着活力和快乐的美。由于这种长期的人种融合,使拉美女性在长像、肤色和身材上,吸收和融合了世界上不同人种的特色。巴西女郎无论清晨还是旁晚,她们都爱穿着比基尼享受太阳的恩赐,健康而自然的巴西女人仿佛是天地间和谐的色彩。巴西姑娘的好身材,与她们热爱舞蹈也有一定的关系。也许,常年跳桑巴舞,就是巴西美女保持体型苗条、体魄健康的秘诀之一。

美女4
黎巴嫩
在黎巴嫩女性不仅仅可以做自己喜欢的工作,甚至还有很多美女偏爱“武装”,她们的精干和骨子里对家庭的传统观念,简直让男人们欲罢不能。

美女5
印度
但其实在印度,大部分女性的社会地位很低,那些精美的首饰大多也都是束缚和制约女人的工具。而且女孩子结婚,女方家里的陪嫁数量也大得惊人,这一切都导致印度重男轻女严重的社会现象。不过,随着近些年的各大选美比赛的举办,印度女孩开始在国际舞台上展露她们美丽的姿态,截止至2007年,印度就已经摘得5次世界小姐的冠军,与委内瑞拉并列成为拿到冠军最多的国家。印度女人就像她们国家悠久的历史文化一样,潜移默化的感染着每一个人的内心。

美女6
乌克兰
相对于邻邦俄罗斯著名的美女们,乌克兰的姑娘们显得更加娇美和精致,身材要更加纤细,皮肤也更粉嫩。近几年中国很多平面广告都采用了乌克兰国籍的模特,她们基本上14岁就开始成熟,造型多变,活泼又精力旺盛,让模特经纪和广告公司们喜爱有加。走在乌克兰的大街上,这些充满了青春活力的姑娘们简直是让人目不暇接,除了身材绝佳,她们还拥有着天生的好品位,时尚在她们的身上被展现无疑。虽然很多姑娘们在结婚以后身材发福的厉害,但仍不妨碍乌克兰成为美女的诞生地。怪不得乌克兰女权运动的美女们每隔几天就要出来整点事儿干。

美女7
委内瑞拉
委内瑞拉是个最负盛名的盛产美女的国度。她的人口只有2400万,却出过至少10个世界小姐及环球小姐。委内瑞拉的选美之风狂热至极,每个村庄都有一名“美女王后”;当地女孩从上中小学起,就开始参加选美活动;小姑娘从4岁起就可以参加专业选美比赛,甚至有专门的培训学校为4至9岁的小女孩设置选美课程。而成年美女培训学校的规定要严格得多。








Saturday, November 24, 2012

保留資金供潛在併購‧楊忠禮電力股息受壓

Source: http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/67510


(吉隆坡23日訊)楊忠禮電力(YTLPOWR,6742,主板基建計劃組)首季淨利按年成長3%,普遍符合市場預期,分析員相信“YES"4G電訊業務用戶持續增長,惟無法在短期內轉虧為盈,保留資金供併購機會做法則預料繼續壓縮短期週息率。
“YES"業務無法短期轉盈
肯納格研究指出,楊忠禮電力首季淨利在營業額錄取15%增長情況下僅傳出3%增長率,惟大馬獨立發電廠盈利因保養活動而下滑41%、聯號股息收入減少、高燃料成本和水務臂膀營運成本上揚等不利因素,限制淨利漲幅。
不過,“YES"4G業務卻在精明網(Bestarinet)計劃帶動下,稅前虧損收窄至6千100萬令吉。
“楊忠禮電力握有創紀錄100億令吉現金在手,但股息卻異常疲弱,我們相信該公司在經濟波動營造議價良機之際,正保留資金彈藥供潛在併購案。"
未來兩年股息下調16%
雖然肯納格保持財測不變,但下調未來兩年每股股息預測16%至5.3仙。
達證券預見水務必令賺幅持續受壓,惟公用事業業務核心盈利來源——新加坡西拉雅能源(Power Seraya)則可能從原產品近期弱勢中受惠,YES 4G業務在首季錄得超過1億令吉營業額,則顯示客戶基礎仍在成長。
馬銀行研究則說,雖然楊忠禮電力首季資本開銷未顯著上揚,但這可能意味其開銷計劃可能在2013財政年後期才兌現,派息率重回2011年水平的機率依然不高。
無論如何,馬銀行認為該股股價今年至今滑落14%,目前本益比和股價對賬面值已逼近谷底,淨週息率接近3%,重申“買進"評級不變。
目標價評級下調
MIDF研究考量電力和水務業務營運成本走高,決定下調2013年淨利預測14.1%,直指該股目前雖僅以9倍本益比交易,低於過去3年平均10至16倍水平,但考量“高息股"光環不再,相信股價走勢將保持疲弱,同時下調目標價和評級。
“相信楊忠禮電力國內發電廠電力收購協議不獲更新,對盈利影響甚微,原因是集團大部份盈利源自海外,而且相信龐大內部現金有助該公司繼續捕獵海外資產。"
MIDF也不排除母公司楊忠禮機構(YTL,4677,主板貿服組)複製早前對楊忠禮洋灰(YTL CEMENT)展開的換股全購模式,向楊忠禮電力提出私有化的可能性。
(星洲日報/財經)

Stay nimble to bargain hunt on Olam: CIMB

Source: http://www.theedgesingapore.com/the-daily-edge/business/41294-stay-nimble-to-bargain-hunt-on-olam-cimb.html


The short-term overhang on Olam’s shares pending the release of short-seller Muddy Waters’ research report could present bargain-hunting opportunities, CIMB says.

“We believe Olam will be able to ride out the storm. Muddy Waters’ track record is spotted with hits and misses. History suggests that bargain-hunting opportunities exist when stocks plunge on the day Muddy Waters releases its reports.”
CIMB has a Trading Sell call with $1.59 target, premised on near-term uncertainties; it says Olam isn’t an outright Underperform as share-price weakness may be temporary. It doesn’t advocate building positions pending the report’s release, but if the stock drops on its publication, there could be bottom-fishing opportunities, it says.

“We advocate staying nimble for bargain-hunting,” it says. “This could be a risky trade, but the days following the release of Muddy Waters’ report on Olam could prove rewarding for the brave. After all, short-sellers will need to cover their positions. Furthermore, we cannot rule out the possibility of share buybacks by Olam.” The stock is down 2% at $1.65.

Friday, November 23, 2012

JIM ROGERS To Buy China Shares ‘After Collapse’

Source: http://www.nextinsight.net/index.php/story-archive-mainmenu-60/917-2012-chinahk-companies/6127-jim-rogers-to-buy-china-shares-after-collapse


149jim rogers
Rogers' famous tome
Main reference: Story in First Financial

SINGAPORE-BASED INVESTOR Jim Rogers, famous for his ultra pessimistic outlook on the US dollar, says now is not the time to invest in Chinese shares or property.

Instead he’s waiting for the "collapse” of the A-share markets before jumping in.

The American investor, who has called Singapore home since 2007 and is best known for co-founding the Quantum Fund with George Soros, recently spoke at a China-themed investment conference.

He said he was still sitting on the sidelines China’s A-share markets as he felt there was more air to be let out of the balloon before he would jump in in earnest.

The high-profile investor also said he was continuing to calmly watch for opportunities in the PRC property market.

“Everyone wants to know which investment portfolio can protect their savings while also providing income into the future,” he said.

As for China’s A-shares listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen, Rogers said he was continuing to keep a close eye on opportunities but that so far he wasn’t keen on buying until "after a continued decline and collapse” of the equities market.

The US investor said that when signs of this began to appear, he would start looking for bargains and high growth potential counters and then turn them over to his two daughters for safekeeping.

His 2009 book A Gift To My Children explained why he planned to use his daughters to oversee his investments and also contains valuable investing tips and strategies for would-be shareholders.
solargiga_panels
Jim Rogers is bullish on alternative energy including solar, wind and hydro.
Photos: Solargiga
Two years ago Rogers send shockwaves through the global investment community during a speech at Oxford – his alma mater – during the height of the financial crisis.

He encouraged students at the iconic British university to give up dreams of building their careers on Wall Street or Fleet Street and instead to groom themselves for jobs in mining and agriculture.

“The power is shifting again from the financial centers to the producers of real goods. The place to be is in commodities, raw materials, natural resources,” he said at the time.

Indeed, one only need look to the tremendous wealth that Australia has generated over the past decade, fueled in large part by insatiable demand for iron ore, copper and a whole range of foodstuffs from Mainland China.

Last year, the Baltimore-born investor announced that he had established The Rogers Global Resources Equity Index which officially aims to "focus on the top companies in agriculture, mining, metals and energy sectors as well as those in the alternative energy space including solar, wind and hydro.“

“Over the next 20 to 30 years, I think it would be wise to buy some farms or paddies in China as in the country’s future, agriculture will be an even more critical and promising sector.

“We can also clearly see from Beijing’s helping hand that official policy is very supportive of the further development of agriculture in Mainland China,” Rogers said.

業績不振‧財測大砍‧JCY急挫逾17%

Source: http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/67449

(吉隆坡22日訊)JCY國際(JCY,5161,主板科技組)核心硬碟驅動器業務一蹶不振,導致第四季業績“慘不忍睹",分析員紛紛下重手砍低財測,造成其股價應聲急挫超過17%。
JCY國際今日開盤先跌5仙至79仙,過後一路倒退,最多滑落14.5仙或17.2%至70仙後迎來扶盤,並以此價位掛收。
銷量下跌,加上外匯虧損490萬令吉,該公司第四季淨利分別按季和按年猛挫90%和60%,至1千零50萬令吉。
聯昌研究指出,儘管早已警盈利下跌風險,但由於累積盈利賺幅回到災前水平,第四季核心淨利按季慘跌85%,跌勢比預期嚴重,“硬碟驅動器領域繼續放緩,我們預期經營環境依然艱辛"。
該行補充,該公司第四季銷售按季下滑6%,至5億3千600萬令吉,低於業界的雙位數跌幅,反映其市佔率或升高。不過,代價可能是累積盈利賺幅降低至5.1%,不如第三季的19.4%,甚至低於一年前的6.5%。
該行納進低銷售、低賺幅等利空後,下砍2013至2014財政年盈利預測,並預期未來數季並無重估利好,因此將評級由“中和"下修至“落後大市"。
盈利預測下修61%
僑豐研究將2013財政年盈利預測下修61%,因產品賺幅降低,並強調,全球硬碟驅動器展望疲弱,也讓該公司前景蒙上陰霾。
“鑒於JCY國際缺少重估因素,不再是短線買進的選項。我們將評級下修至`賣出’,目標價也依據現有的2013財政年4.5倍本益比而調至35仙。"
肯納格研究表示,由於該行早將需求降低、產品跌價等風險考量在內,而把2013財政年盈利預測調至3億零300萬令吉,遠低於市場平均的3億6千100萬令吉,因此目前無意調整財測。
(星洲日報/財經)

JCY shares tumble after fourth quarter earnings drop

Source: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/11/23/business/12359943&sec=business


PETALING JAYA: Hard-disk drive mechanical component manufacturerJCY International Bhd’s share price fell to a three-week low after the company posted disappointing fourth quarter earnings.
JCY stock closed 14.5 sen lower at 70 sen yesterday.
CIMB Research analyst Jonathan Ng said the operating environment was expected to remain tough as both Western Digital and Seagate had earlier guided for a flat quarter-on-quarter total addressable market for the hard-disk drive (HDD) sector in the traditionally busiest December quarter.
“Our channel checks with other HDD component suppliers also confirmed that demand from the drive makers remain soft, with most expecting a possible recovery only in the second half of 2013,” the analyst said. Ng pointed out that JCY’s fourth quarter core net profit had collapsed a steep 85% quarter-on-quarter as the gross profit margin retreated to pre-flood levels.
Kenanga Research said in a report that JCY’s full-year results met its expectations. It noted that JCY’s management had guided that while it was sanguine on the long term HDD outlook, the ongoing global economic uncertainties still posed a risk of dampening the demand momentum in the short term.
“JCY’s management also foresees that the future earnings may be dragged down by pressures forcing a reduction in the average selling price, a slower growth of total addressable market, adverse currency fluctuations and also labour costs increments,” it said.
CIMB Research downgraded its call on JCY stock to “underperform” from “neutral” with a target price of 77 sen.

YTL Corp Q1 net profit up 56%

Source: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/11/23/business/12359632&sec=business


PETALING JAYA: YTL Corp Bhd’s first quarter ended Sept 30 net profit jumped 56% to RM391.9mil from the RM251.8mil achieved in the same period of the previous year. First quarter revenue rose as well by 12% to RM5.072bil from RM4.543bil.
The company’s group managing director Tan Sri Francis Yeoh Sock Ping said in a press statement that the first quarter net profit saw an improvement mainly due to better performance of its cement operations as well as unrealised foreign exchange gains and derivative gains recorded in an offshore subsidiary.
“On the operations front, our cement and utilities divisions continued drive our growth, whilst the reorganisations of our property development and REIT businesses, completed over the past year, have successfully streamlined and improved the operational efficiency of those divisions,” he said.
Meanwhile, YTL Power’s first quarter ended 30 Sept revenue rose 15% to RM4.179bil from RM3.636bil in the same period last year and net profits stood at RM252.8mil from RM246.2mil in the same period last year.
YTL Power said that its increase in revenue was due mainly to the merchant multi-utilities division, although higher fuel costs impacted performance, and the mobile broadband network division, where improved growth in the network’s subscriber base continued to offset losses from initial implementation costs to build the Peninsula-wide network.
YTL Land’s quarterly net profit declined to RM2mil in its first quarter from RM2.9mil in the same period last year on the back of increased revenues to RM51.1mil from RM3.4mil respectively.
YTL Land said that the increase in revenues was mainly contributed by The Capers, under the group’s Sentul development, and sales of completed properties in the group’s Sandy Island development in Singapore.
Starhill REIT’s first quarter net income meanwhile rose to RM22.8mil from RM15.4mil in the same period last year on the back of revenue rising to RM28.1mil from RM8mil in the respective periods.
YTL e-Solutions also registered increase in its first quarter revenue to RM21.6mil from RM20.8mil recorded in the same period last year while net profit increased as well by 7.7% to RM9.7mil.

Dialog expects up to 20% return from US$1.2bil Bayan

Source: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/11/23/business/12357958&sec=business


PETALING JAYA: Oil and gas services provider Dialog Group Bhd has projected an internal rate of return (IRR) for the Bayan oilfield project located offshore Bintulu to be around the mid-teens to 20% of the costs of US$1.2bil.
The company recently signed a 50:50 joint venture with Halliburton International Inc to redevelop the oilfield over a 24-year period, the second upstream venture after the development of the Balai marginal field cluster, a joint venture with Sydney-based Roc Oil Co Ltd andPetronas Carigali Sdn Bhd, the unit of Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) involved in exploration.
Dialog's executive chairman Ngau Boon Keat said at a media briefing following the company's AGM that the IRR would depend largely on how much of the oil could be recovered with the available technology.
“If we have the technology that can help push more oil out, then the IRR will be better,” he said, adding that visible growth in the company's upstream oil and gas business would take several years.
Ngau said the venture into the upstream business has been “very positive” for the company with the Balai marginal field (in which Dialog has a 32% stake) having produced first oil before Petronas' second-half 2013 deadline.
He declined to comment on how much barrels of oil equivalent still remained in the Bayan oilfield but said about 30% of the oil has been extracted from the 30-year-old field. Ngau was also cautious as to whether the Bayan project value could go up but expects the project to start contributing to revenue from financial year ending June 30, 2014 onwards.
“We're targeting to produce from the oilfield before the end of the year,” he said.
Ngau added that the income from the Balai marginal cluster, in which the company together with joint venture partners have a 15-year risk service contract with Petronas, would only start generating income in four to five years.
Analysts have been positive on the company's upstream venture, which they said would add to the company's recurring income stream.
The company plans to have equal 1/3 contributions to revenue from the upstream, terminal and specialist services from 2016 onwards from the two-thirds contribution coming from specialist services currently.
“This is our plan in terms of revenue contribution as the earnings grow bigger,” Ngau said, adding that the partnerships with companies such as Royal Vopak NV, Halliburton, Roc and Shell brought in the technology especially for enhance oil recovery projects.
Dialog also announced in September an expansion of the company's presense in Pengerang, Johor, where it would be part of a joint venture with Royal Vopak and the Johor state government in the building of a RM4.08bil liquefied natural gas storage terminal.
The company together with Royal Vopak is developing a RM5bil petroleum storage terminal in Pengerang. Both projects are part of Petronas' RM60bil integrated refinery and petrochemical complex expected to be commissioned by the end of 2016.

Singapore rigbuilder shares set to Outperform near-term: JPMorgan

Source: http://www.theedgesingapore.com/the-daily-edge/business/41276-singapore-rigbuilder-shares-set-to-outperform-near-term-jpmorgan.html

WRITTEN BY DOW JONES & CO, INC   
THURSDAY, 22 NOVEMBER 2012 13:26

Shares of Singapore’s rigbuilders are likely to stick to the “buy in January, sell in April” trend for a fourth year in a row, JPMorgan says, noting for the past three years, the stocks consistently outperformed the STI in the first 3-4 months of the year before consolidating as the market awaited potential catalysts from orders, earnings and Petrobras success.
“With the recent 12%-18% stock correction, we believe we are likely to see offshore outperform into early 2013,” the house says, citing offshore orders’ continued strong macro outlook. Margin concerns are likely to recede, it says, expecting strong 4Q12 margin and a steady 2013 performance. It expects 30-35 deepwater rigs will be ordered over the next 12 months, with 30%-35% being semi-subs, with additional orders likely from Brazil for drillships and FPSO.

But it remains “more conservative” on jack-up orders, seeing a potential market-share loss for Singapore players. JPMorgan’s key concern remains the Korean yards as they are getting more aggressive in products and pricing. It rates both Keppel and SembMarine at Overweight, with $13.30 and $5.40 targets respectively.

Keppel is up 3% to $10.58 while SembMarine is up 3.1% to $4.38.

Thursday, November 22, 2012

巩固上游争取合约 戴乐购Halliburton 受看好

Source: http://www.nanyang.com/node/492886?tid=462


巩固上游争取合约 戴乐购Halliburton 受看好

(吉隆坡20日讯)分析员认为,戴乐集团(Dialog,7277,主板贸服股)认购Halliburton Bayan石油有限公司50%股权可巩固油气上游业务外,也可争取更多合约。
戴乐集团宣布,子公司Dialog D&P私人有限公司与Halliburton国际子公司———Asia Energy服务私人有限公司签署认购与股东协议(SHA)。
签署上述协议后,Dialog D&P正式持有Asia Energy服务子公司———Halliburton Bayan石油50%股权,将共同管理岸外服务合约。
增强双方实力
大马研究分析员表示:“我们对此抱着正面看法,因为这可让戴乐集团继续发展油气上游业务,也可争取更多工程、专业服务和维修工程合约。”
侨丰研究分析员也认为,戴乐集团和Halliburton国际的合作可增强双方的实力。
“戴乐集团在大马油气供应领域占有一席地位,而Halliburton国际则专门为油气上游领域提供产品和服务。”
他说:“透过这项协议,戴乐集团可增强专业技术业务,并就此带动更多油气田修复合约。”
参与Bayan油田合约
戴乐集团成为Halliburton Bayan石油股东,意味前者将参与后者于11月7日获国油勘探(Petronas Carigali)颁发的Bayan油田修复承包合约。
Bayan油田位于砂拉越州民都鲁岸外,合约总值估计约12亿美元(约37亿令吉)、为期24年。
另外,侨丰研究分析员认为,戴乐集团的加入可增加国油勘探对该工程的信心。

工金融业遭垄断中国穷人补贴富人•林毅夫

Source: http://www.nanyang.com/node/492931?tid=462


名家观点:工金融业遭垄断中国穷人补贴富人•林毅夫

世界银行原首席经济学家林毅夫认为,当前收入分配差距不断拉大,是由金融、交通、通信等行业垄断造成的,今后改变这种局面,就要在打破垄断上下功夫。
我们谈论的是简单的方法,从现有的客户寻求推荐客户!
当你会见更多人以及更多人向你购买时,那些客户会愉快地推荐他们的其他联络人。
因为你投入时间找到他们,为他们做提案呈现,最终销售他们真正受益的产品。本质上,你会创造一堆狂热迷,他们会为你建立意想不到的销售事业和成果。
你不须要在电话上,用两天的时间与冰冷的销售对象交谈。
(“冰冷”是指,你从未见过他们,他们不认识你,你不知道他们是否对产品感兴趣或合乎资格!)当你拥有合格的推荐客户时,那个驱动购买能力的漏斗会自动化重复填满黄金。因为,你开发了一个很好的推荐系统!你有效地把想要购买的名单填满你的预约日志!
了解三个法则让我们来查看这个你必须填满的漏斗:现在你知道,没有合格的销售对象,绝对没有销售的机会、也没有和谐关系的机会,更明确地没有提案的机会和成交的对象!其中一个我常问的问题是:“哪里可以找到合格的销售对象?”
还未启动那意想不到的推荐系统之前,你必须知道哪里可以找到这些销售对象!你必须先了解这三个法则,才能顺利地完成:一、在不认识你的情况下,销售对象不会找到你。二、没有清楚的好处,销售对象不会找到你。三、你没有询问他们,销售对象不会找到你!
合格的销售对象怎会知道你?你日常生活中,通常在哪里遇见他人?
如果你从事某个职业,你通常遇见同业,如:同事、供应商、上司和现有的客户。
在目前的发展阶段,跟发达国家比较起来,我们(中国)还是劳动力相对多、相对便宜。
我们的比较优势是在于劳动力相对密集的产业,包括农业、制造业、服务业。
如果说按照这样来发展的话,就能够创造非常多的就业机会,资本积累得就要非常快。
资本就会从相对稀缺逐渐变成相对丰富,劳动力就会从相对丰富逐渐变成相对短缺。在这个变化的过程当中,工资增长就会非常快,资本报酬就会逐渐下滑。
按照比较优势的理想模型,经济发展会达到效率和公平之间的平衡,这就意味着,主要依靠劳动收入的低收入阶层,能够从劳动密集型产业的发展中受益良多。
然而现实情况却并没有随人愿,收入差距越拉越大,到底哪里出了问题?
改革初期,为了保持从计划向市场的平稳过渡,中国走的是“双轨制”,这条改革路径已经被历史证明是非常高明的,在保证经济社会稳定的同时,也解放了民营经济的活力。
保留旧制弊端
但任何事情都有两面性,“双轨制”同样也保留了旧体制的弊端。
由于在计划经济时代绝大多数的国有企业,他们所在的部门是资本非常密集的,这不符合我们的比较优势。
在开放竞争的市场当中,它是没有制胜能力的。在双轨制的改革之下,我们就继续保留一些必要的保护跟补贴,让这些企业能够生存,达到经济的稳定,收入分配的不断恶化就是它的后果。
这种基于现实层面考虑而不得不做出的妥协,至少造成了三个方面的扭曲:一是金融结构高度集中;二是资源的税费非常低,基本上等于免费送给了资源开发的企业;三是在交通、电信等服务业上面保留着垄断。
不仅影响到资金回报往大企业集中,因为劳动力比较密集的农户跟制造业和服务业当中中小型的企业得不到金融的支持,他们的发展是得到抑制的。劳动需求也是受到抑制的。
因此,工资收入的增长相比我们实际经济增速是低的。这是低收入者,以及劳动所得在我们当中比重不断下降的一个最主要的原因。
这种金融垄断,实际上还造成了“穷人补贴富人”的倒挂现象。
由于我们的金融高度集中在大银行跟股票市场,在这种状况下,他们得到金融服务的时候,实际上是得到补贴的,谁补贴他们?
是把钱放到金融体系里面,但是得不到金融服务的那些相对比较穷的居民或者是中小企业,或者是农户。
当然收入分配随着快速的经济发展会越来越恶化。
林毅夫 世行首席经济学家