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Monday, October 29, 2012

HIAP HOE & SUPERBOWL: Stocks Run Up 48% & 38% Ahead Of Hotels Opening

Source: http://www.nextinsight.biz/index.php/story-archive-mainmenu-60/916-2012/5792-hiap-hoe-a-superbowl-stocks-run-up-ahead-of-hotel-completion-


Written by Leong Chan Teik
Monday, 10 September 2012 07:20

WHAT IS THIS integrated hotel project in Balestier whose developers are seeing their stock prices gain momentum?
On this page, we present the latest pictures of the two hotels and a park.

Their developers are Hiap Hoe Limited, which currently has another three high-end residential projects under construction. 

Its sister company is Superbowl, which is co-developing the Balestier project. Superbowl, by the way, is better known as an owner and manager of leisure and recreational facilities.

Their hotels will likely hit media headlines as they near completion. 

The hotels are a 3-star and a 4-star which flank Zhongshan Park, and are sited a stroll away from the Sun Yat Sen Nanyang Memorial Hall. 

Hiap Hoe and Superbowl are hailed by some investors for their extraordinary luck in clinching the plot of land during the 2008 global financial crisis.
zhongshanpark_centre
Zhongshan Park is an oasis of greenery sited between the 2 new hotels. Across the road is the Sun Yat Sen Nanyang Memorial Hall.
Their joint venture, HH Properties Pte. Ltd., bidded just $172 psf per plot ratio, which was way below the $350 - $470 range expected by market experts (seeAsiaOne story).

Some four years on, ahead of the completion of the project, shares of Hiap Hoe and Superbowl have increasingly gained recognition from the market.

In the year to date, Hiap Hoe stock is up 48%, closing at 60.5 cents last Friday compared to 41 cents at the start of 2012.

And Superbowl is up 38% with a closing price of 38.5 cents last Friday.
A strong run-up in the share prices was seen last week -- on strong volume despite the stocks being usually illiquid. 

This came after DMG & Partners Securities analyst, Goh Han Peng, put out a report on the company on Wednesday, as follows:

"We recently met up with Hiap Hoe’s management and came away with the following takeaways: 
"The Zhongshan Park commercial development is progressing well, with the 405-room Days Hotel expected to obtain TOP this month, followed by the retail component in December, and the and the office space in early 2013. 
"Pre-leasing activities has commenced with the retail space 50% taken up by tenants such as NTUC Finest, Guardian, Crystal Jade and Toast Box. 
"When completed, Hiap Hoe will have a stable source of recurring income.
DaysHotel_HH
The 405-room Days Hotel Singapore at Zhongshan Park
Goh-Han-Peng
Goh Han Peng, analyst














"We estimate a gross development value of over $600m for the development, of which Hiap Hoe’s 50% share amounted to $309m. 

"We raise our RNAV/share for the stock from $1.22 to $1.36, primarily from upgrades to the hotel component of Zhongshan Park, valuing the 3-star Days Hotel at $500k per key (from $400k per key) and the 4-star Ramada Hotel at $600k per key (from $500k per key). 

"On the same 50% discount to RNAV, our T.P. is raised from $0.61 to $0.68. Maintain BUY with 23% upside."
HiapHoe_crane
Hiap Hoe's name is proudly displayed on a crane operating at the top of the Ramada hotel.
Investor says: 

Just a day before the report, on Tuesday, a property investor going by the nick 'Sumer', shared some findings of his own in the NextInsight forum (click here), as follows:
"One Dusun Mall, just 3 min walk from Zhongshan Park, was recently launched for sale at $5,000-$6,000+ psf for its retail shops. 

Apparently the retail space is fully sold!
Even if ZP's shops are valued at a lower $3,500 psf (being 99 year), its estimated 55,000 sq ft retail space is then worth $192.5 million! 

The office space of about 65,000 sq ft, if valued at $1,500 psf, is worth another $97.5 million, bringing the total retail/office component to $290 million.
Since the total cost of construction and land for the whole ZP site is only about $270 million, Hiap Hoe is virtually getting its 2 hotels for free!
Conservatively valuing the 2 hotels at an average of $500,000 per room gives a value of about $400 million. That works out to 42.5ct for Hiap Hoe's 50% share.

银行也来收 金价能不涨?•潘兴才


名家手笔:银行也来收 金价能不涨?•潘兴才

美国联邦储备局已启动第三轮无上限的货币量化宽松政策(QE3),从10月开始每月购入4000亿羌元的“抵押后援证券”(MBS)直至高居约9%失业率下降至可接受之水平,可是金价则应声而起,有直逼每安士1800美元水平之势。
将银行沁由的全国约250万单位“资”不抵“债”的房屋转移至联储局后,银行立刻如释重担,但对结构性的失业率之下降,犹属中远期的效应。
因此,QE3的真目的是再次拯救“大得不能倒”的银行,以增强它们对更大风险的承受力和有能力遵守从明年生效的新银行业管制规则,即巴塞尔(Basel)Ⅲ。
局部恢复金本位制
在巴塞尔Ⅲ下,“抵押后援证券”不再是银行资本万分中的一级资产,而为黄金取而代之,并占据6%的分额。换言之,黄金等同现金,也就是中国人所说的“金钱”,金即钱,钱即金。
这意味着被废除达41年的金本位制又获得小部分的恢复;意谓着无固有价值的货币(Fiat Currency)开始被当作劣币,而冲向他国的银币,如人民币。
在现行的巴塞尔Ⅱ之下,美国“大得不能倒”的银行是将“抵押后援证券”和国库债务列为一级资产,等同于现金而作为发放贷款的主要储备。
这也就是4年前美国发生金融核爆的主因之一。
抵押后援证券是剧毒
在《解剖华尔街金融核爆》文章(2008-11-12日刊于南洋商报,附图《美国金融弹结构图(一指禅功叠罗汉表演)(附图一)》)中,我曾标明:这座倒置金字塔的底层仅是区区7千亿羌元的MBS(抵押后援证券),却在上面叠着一层比一层阔大的4大层衍生品和银行信贷便利,那是危如累卵,有如上演“一指禅功叠罗汉”。

注解:
MBS=Mortgage Backed Securities,即以房屋按揭抵押为凭据的债券。
CDO=Collateralised Debt Obligations,它是源自MBS的衍生品债券,可译为债务抵押凭证。
CDS=Credit Default Swaps,即信用违约掉期合约。CDS的投资者就是承担CDO违约风险的承保者可获得分期支付的保费。它是CDO的衍生品债务。
合成CDO(Synethetic CDO)。它是CDS的衍生品债务,亦即具有CDO+CDS的收益。
一旦次级房贷者停止还本付息,这座倒置的泰山立即轰然崩塌!
风险度一层比一层,高而的各类衍生品为什么补充允许在市场推售并且可以它们为抵押品而取得银行信贷来收购更多的这类衍生品、更何况MBS本身不仅是剧毒,也是炸弹。
它全无抗拒风险的能力。难怪“大得不能倒”的银行被炸得倒毙于华尔街,或淹淹一息。
经过QE1和2两轮的救助后,这些“大得不能倒”的银行如今又站起来了;为了协助压低利率近于0%之水平,它们继续在玩奠基于利率的衍生品,其中9家承顶着共值约200万亿美元的这种利率衍生品。
QE3提供充足银根
QE3的另一个真目的,是为它们提供充足的流动性(银根)而将美元利率维持于低水平。
这不但协助它们顶住约200万亿羌元的利率衍生品,而且可让联储局继续滥印纸钞和有利于纸钞在国内外流通,从而发售更多的国债。
由于黄金能保值而且是高风险资产的最佳避“风”港,所以,“大得不能倒”的银行终于接受巴塞尔Ⅲ的规定:黄金即现金,等同承认将MBS列为“一级资产:是大错误:那是把炸弹藏在背包上,当时中国惊觉MBS的骗局,迫使美国兑现7000亿美元MBS。
黄金倒置金字塔
终于它们醒觉并接纳美国纽约联邦储备银行副总裁已故约翰‧埃特尔(John Exter,1910-2006)绘制的黄金倒置金字塔(附图二)对零风险度黄金的主张:黄金原是纸币(法定货币,以政府信用为后盾或储备,典型如美元)的储备。

注:依照各类资产的风险度来往上排叠,从底层零风险的黄金到最高层(最高风险)的衍生品,同时黄金可顶住所有上层的风险。
在经济景气或蓬勃期,纸币从低层(低风险资产)流向高层(高风险资产)。经济不景气或萧条时,所有高风险资产则从上流下至纸币。所以,现金是皇帝。
当美元纸币已成为穿衣的世界皇帝时,美国金融秩序迟早崩溃,纸币必然流向避“风”港,所以,金价不断地攀登新高峰:黄金已是货币性原产品。
一轮又一轮的QE的推出,从长期来看,是在自我摧毁美元的霸权地位,使各国尽量减少美元在储备中的分额。“国必自伐,而后从伐之”。
银行也来收黄金
巴塞尔Ⅲ的施行必将使世界各国进一步减少美元的储备分额,而增加黄金的储备分额。
以美元为中心的世界货币秩序正在发生阵阵大幅度的量变,搅乱并拖慢世界实体经济的发展步伐。
1913年20美元可买一安士的黄金,约100年后的今天(2012年),同样的一安士黄金则需要约1750美元,美元对黄金贬值达8,650%!
为防备资产被QE3进一步的洗劫,银行正静悄悄地主抢购黄金行动,明年将明目张胆,甚至接受“定期存金”户口,使它产生利息收入。
美元纸币所造成的无硝烟乱世正,方兴未艾。银行都要囤积黄金了,金价能不飚升吗?
文:潘兴才 

Some companies say Q4 worst period for chips in four years

Source: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/10/29/business/12226841&sec=business


Some companies say Q4 worst period for chips in four years

By DAVID TAN
davidtan@thestar.com.my


GEORGE TOWN: Local semiconductor and electronics firms are anticipating a flat fourth quarter versus last year, with some companies calling it the worst quarter since 2009.
Mini-Circuits Technologies (M) Sdn Bhd chairman and president Datuk Seri Kelvin Kiew described the final period of the year as the worst since 2009, when the subprime crisis peaked.
The economic crisis had prompted many companies to tighten their budgets for the final quarter, as they did not want to end up with excess inventory for the year.
“Furthermore, the orders for consumer electronics products to be manufactured for the Christmas period have also stopped, as the festive holidays are just around the corner. The worldwide book-to-bill ratio for the industry has also dipped below one, indicating an unhealthy trend,” he said.
A book-to-bill ratio of above one indicates more orders are received than filled, showing a strong market where demand outpaces supply. A book-to-bill ratio of below one indicates weaker demand.
According to the September Book-to-Bill Report released by SEMI, North America-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted US$952.9mil (RM2.9bil) in orders worldwide in September 2012 (three-month average basis) and a book-to-bill ratio of 0.81.
Mini-Circuits, which makes radio frequency chips for the telecommunications industry, is expecting a flat fourth quarter compared with a year earlier.
“We did well in the second quarter because of the new powerful RF chips. But the momentum slid in the third quarter, worsening in the fourth period,” Kiew said. “For us, the whole of 2012 will be flat against last year.”
He cited the slowing consumption in China as a major reason.
Pentamaster Corporation Bhd executive chairman C. B. Chuahconcurred that the fourth quarter was the worst since 2009.
“The crisis has affected, in particular, the test handling equipment for logic chips, which generate about 30% of the group's revenue.
“Our sales of test handling equipment for logic chips are expected to dip by double digits in the fourth quarter.
“However, the pick-up in sales of test handling equipment for micro electro-mechanical systems motion sensors and microphones for the smart-phone and tablet markets is expected to cushion the group against the impact of the business supporting semiconductor chips,” he said.
Chuah added that this should be a flat year against 2011.
Pentamaster is now in talks with smart-phone and tablet manufacturers to produce the next generation of test equipment for them, according to Chuah.
GUH Holdings Bhd managing director Datuk Kenneth H'ng said the group was now diversifying into other Asean markets like Indonesia and Thailand, as the market in China had become sluggish.
“The Asean markets contribute less than 5% of the group turnover, so we are now trying to grow their contribution.
“The business potential is very good as there are also Japanese and (South) Korean multinational corporations (MNCs) in Indonesia and Thailand that require our double-sided printed circuit boards (PCB) for their household appliances and consumer electronic products,” said H'ng.
Vitrox Corp Bhd managing director Chu Jenn Weng said the group's machine vision system (MVS) business supporting the semiconductor industry had slowed down.
“However, our tray handling equipment, the advanced optical inspection and advanced X-ray inspection machine, which support the PCB industry in the US and Asia markets, have cushioned us against the impact from the semiconductor sector,” he said.
The MVS equipment, which is used for chips inspection, generates 40% of the group's revenue.
“We expect a flat fourth quarter against last year's corresponding period and a flat year against 2011,” Chu added.
According to SEMI, the three-month average of worldwide billings in September 2012 was US$1.18bil (RM3.59bil), about 12% lower than the revised August 2012 level of US$1.34bil (RM4.07), and is 10.4% less than the August 2011 billings level of US$1.31bil (RM3.98).
The decline in bookings and billings for semiconductor equipment to levels last reported in the fall of 2011 further confirmed the second-half investment slowdown, said SEMI president and chief executive officer Denny McGuirk.
In the current cycle, device makers were grappling with lower average selling prices and uncertainty in the broader economy, which clearly had a near-term impact on equipment purchases, he added.
SEMI is the global industry association serving the nano and micro-electronic manufacturing supply chains.

Saturday, October 27, 2012

Success is sweet for Cocoaland

Source: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/10/27/business/12223208&sec=business


Cocoaland Bhd sees its best bet of expanding the business onto the next plateau of growth through organic means as it is spurred by the growing consumer consumption for sugar confectionary candies.
In an interview with StarBizWeek, founder and executive director Liew Fook Meng says that the company's expansion plans for the next few years would open up new capacity for the company to fill and also to leverage on the strength of its substantial shareholder, F&N Holdings Bhd for its beverage business.
“The additional capacity would free up the bottleneck that we have currently as sometimes we are faced by supply constraints when demand picks up,” he says.
Besides planning to spend about RM30mil to set up its sixth factory in Rawang, the company would invest about RM44mil to increase production of its hard candy and fruit gummy confectionery.
This will more than double its total production capacity to 4.6 million kg of hard candy and 11.7 million kg of fruit gummy from the current capacity of one million kg and 4.5 million kg respectively.
In the meantime, Liew is setting his eyes on the bigger picture now and is following closely the developments of the takeover of Singapore-listed F&N by Thai Beverage Plc, one of the largest beverage producers in Asia.
Liew: ‘The additional capacity would free up the bottleneck that we have currently.’Liew: ‘The additional capacity would free up the bottleneck that we have currently.’
With F&N as its penultimate strategic partner with a 27% stake via F&N Holdings, the developments would have an impact the direction of the company.
Plans are afoot for the group to set up its franchise business model which would see Cocoaland manufacturing and marketing its products under the franchisor's brand name.
“We are still in the negotiation stage with a few well-known international companies, and we expect to sign up a few franchise businesses to start in financial year 2013 after the new lines for gummy and hard candy have been fully-installed and commercialised,” he says.
While Cocoaland is now synonymous with its fruit gummy products under the Lot 100 brand, and its partnership with F&N, the company is looking out for partnerships and work with other food brands.
“Besides F&N, we currently have other clients like GlaxoSmithKline,Ribena21st Century, and Coffeebean. We intend to increase penetration in export markets like China, Vietnam and Indonesia with our fruit gummy and CocoPie products,” he says. A wide range of its products are carried by local retail stores, and besides the domestic market, the group has been supplying confectionery to overseas market such as the United States, Japan, Middle East, Hong Kong, Australia and Europe.
The export market's share to the group's overall revenue has increased progressively from 46.5% in financial year 2009 to 54.2% in the first half of 2012.
Cocoaland has a market capitalisation of about RM400mil, and its journey has been one that is synonymous with other success stories.Cocoaland story began when two brothers started out as small time vendors selling deep-fried snacks and banana fritters in the Klang Valley.They got their first break when an acquaintance decided to dispose of his chocolate coating operations.
“That time we don't even have a name yet. And with RM10,000 in hand, we bought his machines and decided to venture into that business,” he says.
The brothers finally got their first break in the mid-1980s when they carved a niche for themselves in the market to manufacture polytubed drinks, which opened doors to the overseas market, and for the first time exporting to the Middle East.
The first factory was set up in Kampar in the 1980s and the second success story came in the form of “Koko Jelly” with its second factory in Kepong to manufacture the chocolate coated jelly that was well-received by the public. Today, the group is managed by 10 siblings.
AmResearch recently reaafirmed its “buy” call on the company, with a higher fair value of RM3.05 per share as it says the group is poised to hit an earnings inflexion point.
It says the group's three-year compounded annual growth rate of 28% will be underpinned by additional production capacities and the deepening in distribution channels.
“We understand plans are afoot for the installation of a new line each for the production of hard candy and fruit gummy to alleviate current supply constraint. Upon commercialisation by first quarter 2013, the new lines are expected to lift installed capacities by 360% for hard candies and 160% for gummies. This potentially translates into an additional RM158mil of revenue per annum,” it says.
For its first half ended June, the company recorded a revenue of RM110.74mil, passing the halfway mark of what it achieved for the entire 2011 at RM173.9mil. Net profit stood at RM12.2mil for the period under review, more than half its net profit of RM19.19mil for year ended 2011.
Its net profit was halved in 2010 to RM9.8mil from RM19.6mil previously due to slower sales, and losses it incurred after terminating a joint-venture production facility in China's Fujian province to manufacture fruit gummy for the China market.

ViTrox – homegrown high-tech firm

Source: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/10/27/business/12214870&sec=business


IN the early seventies, a number of multinational companies (MNCs) converged on land near the Penang airport and built warehouses to assemble electronic components. It was the beginning of Malaysia's electronic industry.
Forty years later, the landscape is remarkably different. The Bayan Lepas Industrial Estate is the hub of Malaysia's electronics industry. Modern factories, mostly owned by MNCs, dot the expanse of flat land that lie north of the airport. Here, companies make electronic devices and components for the global market.
High-tech manufacturing has long superseded basic assembly functions. Research and development centres now test processes and devices for use in the manufacture of next generation products and gadgets. MNCs have brought in their own engineers and managers, but Malaysians are now involved in nearly all levels of management and production.
What has been the pay-off for 40 years of investment in this sector? Continuing inflows of foreign direct investment, high levels of employment, strong exports, transfer of technology and skills and a multiplier effect on supporting industries.
The electrical and electronics industry has been the country's largest manufacturing sector and the biggest contributor to exports and employment for many years. It is undoubtedly one of Malaysia's success stories.
But a big question remains. Has it spawned the development of a truly indigenous Malaysian electronics industry?
Do we have companies in this sector which are truly Malaysian and world-class?
One company is staking a claim to be a Malaysian technology champion. Founded in Penang in 2000, ViTrox Technologies Sdn Bhdis owned, managed and staffed by Malaysians. Its technical expertise is home grown. Its products are world-class and ranked among the top five globally in their respective categories. And the company has been profitable since Day One.
In a recent interview, Chu Jenn Weng, one of its founders, details how ViTrox came on the scene, what it has achieved, and what the future promises.
World-class technology
The story of ViTrox is the story of two young men, one from Seremban who studied electrical and electronics engineering and the other from Penang who studied computer science at Universiti Sains Malaysia in Penang. They met while working for the same multinational company after graduation. Five years later, they left the company to realise a dream to build a world-class high-tech company of their own.
Chu's interest at university was machine vision technology, the use of digital signal processing technology to analyse shapes and sizes. When he interned at an MNC in Penang, he continued his research in the subject. He joined the MNC upon graduation and soon ended up heading its machine vision section.
Machine vision technology is used to detect defects in manufactured products in this case, in electronic parts and components. A camera takes a snapshot of the product for example, a joint, an assembly or welding, or even a printed circuit board. It sends the image to a computer which analyses it for kinks or faults which are barely visible to the naked eye. The product is accepted or rejected depending on whether a fault is detected.
Machine vision inspection systems thus act as “gatekeepers”. They ensure that only goods of acceptable quality get through the system.
Inspection systems like these are used extensively by high-tech semiconductor and electronics manufacturing companies. They are purchased from specialist manufacturers in the United States, Japan and elsewhere.
When Chu joined the MNC, he gave the company an alternative: it could design and produce these inspection systems in-house instead of buying them from third parties.
“But machine vision inspection systems was not a core business of the MNC,” Chu says. “Its main business was semiconductors, and it did not make sense for the company to invest in it for the long term.”
The company's decision not to pursue the matter also opened up a new perspective for Chu. “It occurred to me that if I could design and build these systems for one company, I could do the same for other companies too.”
“So the idea of leaving to set up a business of my own to service the needs of the whole industry emerged,” he adds.
Chu had the technical skills to build these devices, but the objective was not to build a laboratory but to start a business. He needed someone to complement his technical skills. In Steven Siaw, he found a fellow engineer who understood technology but was equally adept at dealing with the outside world.
In 2000, the duo founded ViTrox Technology Sdn Bhd. The name is a combination of two words, “vision” and “electronics”, reflecting the lofty ambitions they had right from the very start.
The duo was joined by Yeoh Shih Hoong, a first class honours graduate from USM who turned down offers from big name companies to team up with them. “He took risks to join us at a time when we had nothing to show only our vision and our determination,” Chu says.
“So we consider him a co-founder.”
Core business
The three now helm the company. Chu is CEO, Siaw is in charge of sales and business development, and Yeoh oversees technology. ViTrox's parent company was listed on Bursa's Mesdaq market in 2005 and on the main board in 2009.
The manufacture of machine vision inspection systems remains the company's core business after 12 years. “This is our area of expertise, and we remain focused,” Chu says.
Accuracy, reliability, speed and ease of use are the critical selling points of the company's products. ViTrox machines can detect defects of up to 3 microns accuracy (a human hair is about 100 microns), and do this at high speed: up to 20 images a second.
The demands of customers have become more stringent over the years. Two-dimensional inspection systems are being superseded by 3D ones, and automated optical systems are being supplemented by X-ray machines.
ViTrox-produced inspection systems are ranked among the top five in the world in their respective categories. Its award-winning V810 automated X-ray inspection system is the fastest 3D inline X-ray inspection system in the world.
“To maintain our competitive edge, we have to be able to develop new models almost every six to 12 months,” Chu says. “The turnaround cycle is so fast because the technology in the consumer and telecommunications world is changing very rapidly.”
“Our ability to respond quickly to customer needs is one of our strengths,” Chu adds.
ViTrox's strength is its technology. It operates very much like a design house. “We do all our R&D work in-house. Most of the components we need are fabricated for us by third parties.
“We assemble them in our factory, test them, and then ship the final product out.”
People, work culture, and the future
Chu and his colleagues are particularly proud of the fact that ViTrox, which on Thursday received the Prime Minister's Award for Industry Excellence, is a totally Malaysian company. “Ninety-nine per cent of our R&D work is done by Malaysians. Ninety-nine per cent of our staff we are 250 strong at the moment are Malaysians. We produce world-class, and we compete against the best in the world in our line of business.
“We hope we can continue with this track record,” Chu says.
What will the future be like for ViTrox?
“We are a relatively young company, and we feel we are only just starting out on our journey. The size of the global machine vision market is US$15bil, and our market share at the moment is less than 5%. So, the potential for growth is enormous,” Chu says.
“The technology in our line of business changes very rapidly and we invest a lot in R&D to stay abreast of latest developments and to develop new products.
“Ultimately, our success will depend on the basics: our ability to innovate, maintain quality, anticipate market trends, and respond to customer needs.
“We have shown we are able to do this, and I am confident we can continue to perform at this level,” Chu adds.
“The key to all this is our people. It may be a clich to say that our most important asset is our staff, but in our case it is very true. Without good staff, you get nowhere. With outstanding staff, you can go almost anywhere.
“So we take great pains to ensure that the right kind of people join us. I personally vet through all applications to join the company.
“First of all, we look for people with good technical qualifications. Then we want to see if you have the right attitude towards work, and towards your colleagues. This is very important because if you come here with the wrong attitude, you are going to get nowhere and the company will also suffer.
“You may be surprised if I tell you that the average age of our staff is below 30 years. At 42, I am already one of the oldest in the company.
“The benefit of having such a young team is that they are enthusiastic, they are willing to learn, and they are prepared to put in that extra effort when it is needed,” Chu adds.
This article is part of a series on Winning Companies companies that have achieved outstanding success by being creative and innovative. Research for the article has been supported by the International Trade and Industry Ministry as part of a project to promote public discussion of issues relating to national economic competitiveness.

Friday, October 26, 2012

Sheng Siong rises as brokers up target price

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/25/markets-singapore-stocksnews-shengsiong-idUSL3E8LP04O20121025


Sheng Siong Group Ltd rose as much as 2 percent after it posted stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings, prompting several brokerages to raise their target prices for the supermarket chain operator.
By 0115 GMT, Sheng Siong shares were up 1 percent at S$0.48, with nearly 4 million shares traded, 3.5 times its average daily volume over the last five sessions.
Sheng Siong said its net profit for the third quarter rose 48.1 percent to S$9.8 million from a year earlier, helped by higher same-store sales and new store openings.
CIMB Research raised its target price for Sheng Siong to S$0.58 from S$0.49, and kept its 'outperform' rating, citing new store openings and strong execution by the management.
Sheng Siong is expected to open two new stores in the next quarter, CIMB said, noting that most of Sheng Siong's new stores should deliver strong earnings in 2013.
However, CIMB said gross margins are expected to fall in the fourth quarter due to likely discounting on goods during the festive period.
DMG & Partners also raised its target price for Sheng Siong to S$0.53 from S$0.51, and kept its 'buy' rating, citing the company's faster rate of expansion. (Reporting by Charmian Kok in Singapore; Editing by Anand Basu; charmian.kok@thomsonreuters.com)

Singapore’s industrial output unexpectedly falls a second month

Source: http://www.theedgesingapore.com/the-daily-edge/business/40802-singapores-industrial-output-unexpectedly-falls-a-second-month.html


Singapore’s industrial output unexpectedly fell for a second month in September as the faltering global economy hurt demand for electronics and pharmaceutical goods.

Manufacturing fell 2.5% from a year earlier after a revised 2.3% drop in August, the Economic Development Board said in a report today. The median of 16 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 1.8% increase.
The report adds to evidence of an economic contraction in the Southeast Asian nation, after exports unexpectedly declined last month. The International Monetary Fund this month cut its projections for global expansion this year and next, saying it sees “alarmingly high” risks of a steeper slowdown, and Singapore’s Trade Ministry said growth will be weighed down for the rest of 2012 by a “subdued” world economy.

“We are still quite pessimistic about Singapore industrial production,” Jackit Wong, a Hong Kong-based economist at Natixis Asia, said before the report. “We expect that there will be no improvement in global trade growth” next year, while Asia’s trade could show “modest improvement” in the first half of 2013, Wong said.

The Singapore dollar was little changed at $1.2217 a dollar at 12:37 p.m. local time.

Output fell a seasonally adjusted 1.8% from the previous month, when it slid 2.3%.

Electronics production declined 12.2% from a year earlier in September, while pharmaceutical output fell 8.9%. Chemicals decreased 0.2%, the report showed.

Ezra’s Q4 profit falls 41% to $9m

Source: http://www.theedgesingapore.com/the-daily-edge/business/40799-ezra-posts-full-year-earnings-of-794m.html


Ezra Holdings said its earnings for its fourth quarter ended Aug 31, 2012 fell 41% to US$7.26 million ($8.9 million), from US$12.30 million a year ago.

Revenue for the quarter rose 49% to US$326.3 million.
However, for the full year ended August 31, 2012, the group registered a gain of 62% in earnings to US$65 million from US$40.06 million a year ago.

Revenue for the 12 months was US$984.18 million, up 76% from US$559.10 million a year ago. It attributed the gains to the successful integration of its subsea services operations held under the EMAS AMC group.

Thursday, October 25, 2012

高估值压缩回酬率 抗跌股未必万无一失

Source: http://www.nanyang.com/node/486698?tid=462


(吉隆坡23日讯)安联投资研究指出,抗跌股在推高马股创新高的同时,估值也水涨船高,反而压缩了回酬率及限制未来上涨空间,可见抗跌股未必万无一失。
安联投资研究主管程宏扬在市场策略分析报告中,透露对抗跌股的担忧,称该行的研究显示抗跌股的风险调整后收益正处于不稳定水平,甚至低于周期性股项。
他表示,不明确的市场展望,确实能暂时维持抗跌股的估值,但无法忽视高估值限制股价的进一步涨幅。
“投资者目前更注重投资回酬,所以抗跌股并不面临即刻的下调风险。但我们没办法预期这情况会维持多久,投资者必须认识到,抗跌股如今并不一定是真正抗跌的。”
程宏扬进一步解释,富时隆综指本月19日创下1666.35点的最高闭市水平,促使今年截至当日的涨幅达8.9%,其中105.5%是来自抗跌股的贡献。
相较之下,富时小型股指数今年至今的涨幅仅有2.4%。
综指年底料达1630点
这些带动综指步步攀高的抗跌股,主要来自消费、电讯和产业信托领域。其中,消费指数大涨10.5%,而部分电讯股也取得30至50%的涨幅,一直备受看好的产托也涨约20至30%。
“我们将四大通讯股和4项产托作为比较,发现他们2013年回酬率,在今年至今已萎缩至少100个基点。”
这包括马电讯(TM,4863,主板贸服股)、明讯(Maxis,6012,主板贸服股)、亚通(Axiata,6888,主板贸服股)、数码网络(Digi,6947,主板基建股)、柏威年产托(PavReit,5212,主板产业信托股)、嘉德产托(CMMT,5180,主板产业信托股)、双威产托(Sunreit,5176,主板产业信托股),以及Axis投资(Axreit,5106,主板产业信托股)。
为此,他告诫投资者,回酬率显著萎缩,已不足以补偿投资者所承担的股票风险。
他也提醒,周期性股项在第四季将继续低于大市,而抗跌股涨势收敛,因此,维持1630的年底综指水平,相等于15.7倍的本益比估值。
金融业展望太乐观
程宏扬认为,根据当前企业收益预估,可推算综指明年盈利增长或达12.3%。
但随着大选的变数,加上金融领域展望过度乐观,他不认为此预估可靠。
以上届大选为例,在宣布解散国会至大选时,综指共跌8.9%,大选后维持3个月的低于大市情况,当时马股本益比估值压缩至13倍的水平。
假设来临大选促使马股估值,从当前的15倍萎缩至13倍,再根据目前2013年的盈利预估计算,综指存有9%的下调风险,恐跌至1520点。
“因此,就算是12.3%的盈利增长实现,也仅代表综指在15倍本益比估值的前提下,只有5%的上涨空间至1750点,政治因素带来的风险相对更大。”
不仅如此,他也强调目前金融股2013年的财测过于乐观,他认为贷款增长将放缓,而净利息赚幅(NIM)会持续受压,贷款拖欠则将提高。
金融股料将在2013年为综指带来40.7%的贡献,金融股盈利下滑将拖垮综指整体表现。
大选在即逢高卖出
第十三届全国大选在即,程宏扬建议投资者采取“逢高卖出”的投资策略,并选择降政治关联不大的股项。
“在大选之后,外围的不明确因素将促使大马仍需仰赖政府开支和稳健的内需来支撑,我们因此看好建筑和油气领域。”
同时,博彩领域也同样获得“增持”投资评级,主要是看好市场将会进一步开放,激励领域前景。
虽然投资者料持续偏好消费、电讯和产托此类抗跌领域,但程宏扬认为,这些领域上涨空间受限,仅给予“中和”评级。
大选后首选股项
亚洲航空(AirAsia,5099)
投资评级:买入
目标价格:3.80令吉
面对高燃油成本、经济展望低迷和激烈竞争,亚航表现出强稳的商业模式,在经济不景时更较全服务航空公司出色。
随着燃油价格稳定,加上原油需求料将进一步中和放缓,我们认为长期投资者可在当前9.9倍的低本益比下,趁机吸纳亚航。
国家能源(Tenaga,5347)
投资评级:短线买入
目标价格:8.05令吉
一旦马六甲液化天然气终站投入运作,国能的天然气供应问题将迎刃而解。
同时,国能正与第一代独立发电厂商谈减少产能费用,并在更有利予国能的条件下以新工厂取而代之。
2013年本益比为11.3倍。
马化控股(MPHB,3859)
投资评级:强劲买入
目标价格:4.21令吉
马化控股是安联投资研究博彩领域首选股,程宏扬看好本地博彩市场开放和公司资本管理能力。
正进行分拆活动,也将进一步释放非博彩资产的潜在价值,该股有望成为高周息率股项。
在大选后,万字票业务(NFO)公司的开放数量,将左右公司评级调整。
成荣集团(MudaJya,5085)
投资评级:买入
目标价格:4.37令吉
成荣集团今年表现亦低于大市,除了政治因素作祟,投资者也担忧印度的燃料供应协议。
不过,随着印度近期频发生停电事故,政府受促尽快解决当地缺电问题,当前最好的解决方法就是与独立发电厂签署协议,加上大马和印度将陆续推出电力厂工程,成荣集团料可从中受惠。
沙布拉肯油(Skpetro,5218)
投资评级:买入
目标价格:2.71令吉
沙布拉肯油为该行油气领域首选股,2016年前的复合年增长率料有31.7%。
该公司目前手持140亿令吉订单,新资产将在2014财年第二季开始抵达。
鉴于合并后的资本负债比例较大,沙布拉肯油可借此机会,通过内部增长或并购方式提高资产基础。
金务大(Gamuda,5398)
投资评级:买入
目标价格:4.77令吉
尽管收益前景良好,但金务大今年表现却低于大市,主要是投资者因政治风险而避而远之。
但程宏扬认为,无论大选结果为何,捷运(MRT)势在必行,加上金务大和马矿业(MMCCorp,2194,主板贸服股)的联营公司在隧道工程提呈最低竞标价,大选后重新竞标的风险不高。

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Cocoaland sees potential

Source: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/10/24/business/12216430&sec=business


PETALING JAYA: Confectionery manufacturer Cocoaland Bhd is looking forward to Thai Beverage Pcl emerging officially as the new controlling shareholder of Fraser and Neave Ltd (F&N) to help drive Cocoaland's business strategy forward.
“When you think about the impact of the shareholder changes in Singapore-listed F&N, it can only be positive for us, as Thai Beverage is well established in Thailand. And not only that, it is one of the largest beverage producers in Asia,” said Cocoaland founder and executive director Liew Fook Ming after speaking at the company's public roadshow organised by CIMB Securities.
He said with F&N's strategic stake in Cocoaland, it would only be natural for F&N to expand its operations locally should opportunities present itself and Cocoaland would stand to benefit from this.
F&N has a 27% shareholding in Cocoaland via Fraser & Neave Holdings Bhd, which is listed on Bursa Malaysia's Main Market, after a private placement valued at RM54.6mil or RM1.38 per share in 2010. The idea behind the deal was for F&N to leverage on Cocoaland's bottling facilities capable of “hotfilling” polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottles.
Cocoaland then used the proceeds to set up its fifth factory in Rawang to produce mainly beverages. The company now has a non-exclusive packing agreement with F&N to prepare, package and deliver F&N Beverages Manufacturing Sdn Bhd's products.
Besides that, there was a second packaging contract valued at a minimum of RM800,000 with Singapore-based F&N Foods Pte Ltd's as its non-exclusive contract packer in Malaysia.
“There will be synergies that we can look at. The potential is huge if Thai Beverage decides to enter the Malaysian market with its wide range of products,” he said.
While its fruit gummy products remain Cocoaland's core business, the manufacturing of beverage has begun to contribute significantly since 2011.
For its first half ended June 2012, the beverage division contributed about 24% to the company's total sales, a huge improvement compared with just 2.9% recorded in 2010.
It was previously reported that the company planned to invest about RM74mil in the next few years to expand its production capacity and to build a new factory, in a bid to stamp its mark in the Asean region and China.
Besides planning to spend about RM30mil to set up its sixth factory, the company would invest about RM44mil to increase its hard candy and fruit gummy production.
This will more than double its total production capacity to 4.6 million kg of hard candy and 11.7 million kg of fruit gummy from the current capacity of one million kg and 4.5 million kg respectively.
As at end-June, Cocoaland was sitting on a cash pile of RM41.02mil and it is in a net cash position with zero debt.
It is expected to tap into the cash reserve to finance most of its expansion plans.

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

料攫獲更多租船合約‧柏達納有望轉虧為盈

Source: http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/66404


(吉隆坡22日訊)由於柏達納石油(PERDANA,7108,主板貿服組)有望從2013頒發的岸外支援船(OSV)合約及可能出租接駁工作船給達洋企業(DAYANG,5141,主板貿服組)中受惠,分析員大幅上調盈利預測,並預期該公司將可自今年起轉虧為盈。
馬銀行研究指出,柏達納石油將從三用工作船艦(AHTS)需求高漲中受惠,因8艘三用工作船艦目前僅出租一艘,加上採購合同公司(PCSB)3+1+1合約期限保證可獲利至2018年,利於該公司維持銷售及回租合約。
該行相信,柏達納石油在去年9月向南昌國際有限公司(Nam Cheong)購買2艘可容納300人住宿的新接駁工作船,將用於支援達洋企業競標採購合同公司和蜆殼石油(SHELL,4324,主板工業產品組)的泛馬油田維修工程合約。
“上述5年工程合約總價100億令吉,無論達洋企業成功競標與否,柏達納石油依然可從工作船和接駁船爭取合約至2018年年初或年中。"
該行表示,高規格支援船需求強勁利好,且該公司船隊半數由接駁工作船和船艦組成,料可從每馬力2美元至2.30美元的強穩船艦每日出組率(DCR)享有按年25%增長率。
“合約競標獲勝在望,加上公司船隊狀況改善,支援船的供應量更為緊縮,我們認為該公司的估值應至少反映其船隊價值,因此認為股價/賬面值1.1倍的估值具穩健基礎,因岸外支援船市場需求正在提昇中。"
有鑒於各項利好將帶動財務表現,該行將該公司2012至2014財政年淨利預測調高1千600萬令吉至7千200萬令吉,2012財政年從預測1千300萬令吉淨虧損調整為獲淨利200萬令吉,2013財政年從預測淨虧損700萬令吉上調至3千200萬令吉。
根據2013財政年股價/賬面值1.1倍(之前採用0.6倍),目標價從55仙大幅調升至1令吉30仙,從'守住'改進至'買進'評級,以反映需求改善和即將在2013年報到的2艘新接駁工作船價值。
“我們僅計算船艦上升的使用量,還未估算其獲取長期合約勝算,預計2012至2014財政年的增長率將從65%增至85%,顯示其未來盈利增長潛力。"(星洲日報/財經)

CIMB cuts Hi-P to underperform, shares fall

Source: http://www.theedgesingapore.com/the-daily-edge/business/40697-cimb-cuts-hi-p-to-underperform-shares-fall-.html


CIMB Research downgraded Hi-P International to ‘underperform’ from ‘neutral’, citing the electronics component supplier’s weaker than expected third-quarter earnings outlook.

The broker cut its price target to $0.70 from $0.95. Hi-P shares fell 7.7% to $0.77, with 2.9 million shares traded, 1.5 times the average full-day volume traded over the past 30 sessions. The stock has risen 29% this year.
Hi-P supplies parts to companies, including Apple Inc and BlackBerry maker Research in Motion.

“It seems the company’s turnaround has been pushed back, and we now believe that its prospects may not be as positive as we had previously thought,” CIMB said in a report after downgrading Hi-P to neutral on Friday.

On Friday, Hi-P said the group expects to report lower revenue and profit in the third quarter from a year earlier, mainly due to lower orders resulting from delays in projects startup from existing and new customers.

CIMB also reduced Hi-P’s 2012-14 core EPS forecast further by 44% to 78%.

“We were already expecting the supply constraints for the iPhone 5 and weakness in other major customers to affect Hi-P; however the magnitude of the fall in earnings appears to be much larger than expected as Hi-P’s announcement indicated that projects from more than one customer was delayed.”

Five biggest Chinese real estate plays on SGX

Source: http://www.theedgesingapore.com/the-daily-edge/business/40700-five-biggest-chinese-real-estate-plays-on-sgx-.html


On Friday, the China National Bureau of Statistics reported that investment in real estate development from January through September had grown by 13.8%. The five biggest stocks/trusts on SGX with exposure to the Greater China real estate market all outperformed the major Chinese index benchmarks in the year-to-date. The five stocks/trusts are:
  1. Hongkong Land Holdings (H78). The company which is quoted and traded in US Dollars (USD) has generated a total return of 34.85% and maintains a dividend yield of 2.69%. In SGD terms, the total return converts to 32.84% in the year-to-date. The company owns and manages prime office and retail space in Hong Kong and through subsidiaries, it is active across Asia. With market capitalisation of approximately $17 billion, the company is part of the Straits Times Index (STI) and has displayed a similar volatility level to the STI over the past two years.
     
  2. Keppel Land (K17). The company has produced a total return of 64.67% in the 2012 year-to-date and maintains a dividend yield of 5.81%. Keppel Land is geographically diversified in Asia, with current focus on Singapore, China, Vietnam, Indonesia and India. The market capitalisation of Keppel Land is approximately $5.3 billion.
     
  3. Yanlord Land Group (Z25). The company has generated a total return of 32.98% in the 2012 year-to-date and does not maintain a dividend yield. The market capitalisation of the company is approximately $2.5 billion. Yanlord Land is a real estate developer based in Mainland China that focuses on developing high-end residential, commercial and integrated property projects in Mainland China.
     
  4. CapitaRetail China Trust (AU8U); The REIT has generated a total return of 53.22% in the 2012 year-to-date. CapitaRetail China Trust (CRCT) is the first Mainland China shopping mall REIT listed on SGX, with a portfolio of nine income-producing shopping malls. The market capitalisation of the REIT is approximately $1.1 billion.
     
  5. Ying Li International Real Estate (5DM); The company has generated a total return of 31.37% in the 2012 year-to-date. Like Yanlord, Ying Li International Real Estate does not maintain a dividend yield. The market capitalisation of the Chongqing commercial property developer is approximately $724 million.

Plantation stocks pick up, analysts see value

Source: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/10/23/business/12209593&sec=business


PETALING JAYA: With crude palm oil (CPO) prices down by some 50% since the start of 2011, plantation analysts are starting to see value in plantation stocks as demand is expected to outstrip supply next year and as the peak production of CPO coming to an end in November.
Analysts are beginning to recommend their clients to accumulate on dips. Top picks by analysts include Sime Darby BhdIOI Corp Bhd,Genting Plantation BhdIJM Plantation Bhd and TSH Resources Bhd.
The three-month CPO price, now at RM2,500-per-tonne level, have been on a virtual downtrend since starting off the year at the RM3,000-per-tonne level. It hit one of its lowest levels since Nov 2009 at RM2,230 on Oct 3.
Analysts expect production to peak in November before normalising to regular levels.
Coupled with low CPO prices, they feel that the downside for plantation stocks would be increasingly limited.
Nonetheless, should palm oil prices not climb back to the RM3,000 levels, earnings of planters may be affected, particularly those that were not integrated players.
“It's yet to see how the third-quarter earnings are going to be like because while CPO prices have come down, production has picked up. So there is a possibility that the pick-up in production can somewhat buffer the lower CPO prices, although not completely,” said a plantation analyst with a local research house.
In the longer term, though, if CPO prices stayed put below RM3,000, this would negatively affect earnings and eventually result in a series of downgrades by analysts.
An analyst with a local bank said while CPO prices had tumbled badly, the same could not be said about the prices of plantation stocks.
“Most plantation stocks have not taken a hit despite the fall in CPO prices. There is a concern that plantation stock prices may eventually reflect this fall,” he said.
The analyst added that plantation stock prices had remained the same even when CPO prices were at the RM3,000-RM3,500 level.
“Thus, I don't expect to see a sell-off, particularly since CPO prices are expected to recover soon. There appears to be more upside than downside and I would recommend clients to start accumulating,” he said.
“In the case of Genting Plantation, IJM and TSH, only half of their plantations are matured. So, intuitively, production should double over the next few years and this will be reflected in their earnings. The increase in production will also compensate for volatility in CPO prices.”
In an Oct 16 seminar organised by CIMB, prominent industry speaker Dorab Mistry said the three-month CPO futures price needed to fall to RM2,200 per tonne and stayed there for four to six weeks to flush out the excess palm oil stocks in the system.
If prices failed to decline to that level, Malaysian palm oil stocks could rise to three million tonnes or more by end-December, Dorab said.