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Tuesday, July 31, 2012

今年內重組3.5億呆賬‧馬屋業撥備風險降低

(吉隆坡30日訊)馬屋業(MBSB,1171,主板金融組)正進行旗下的呆賬重組計劃,肯納格研究認為這項重組將對公司股價起正面效應,預料表現將超越大市,原有的2令吉70仙目標價保持不變。
在重組呆賬期間,馬屋業吸引多方有興趣的買家,預料年杪之前還有另兩筆遺留呆賬待重組,公司的目標是在年杪之前,完成大約3億5千萬令吉呆賬的重組,相等於其呆賬凈值的三分之一(2012年首季,集團的呆賬約達2億9千萬令吉)。
呆賬比率將降至5%或更低
一旦呆賬重組完成,呆賬比率將降低至5%或更低水平,此外,其呆賬比率已從2011年第四季的8.5%,改善至2012年首季的7.3%。
肯納格研究認為,以目前的市況,該公司呆賬的重組,例如恢復推行擱置產業可能不容易,管理層已表明,如果蒙受虧損,可能不會出售或重組,大多數的資產已經估價,以市價為參考基礎,恢復推行這些計劃預料不會帶來一次過龐大收益。
今年至今,集團已成功回撥兩筆遺留賬項,以及脫售一家非核心業務子公司,第一項回撥是肯納格園 計劃,預料將於今年9月重新推出;另一項是1億2千萬令吉的債務結算協議,以恢復推行及完成孟沙Pantai Plaza計劃,此外,該公司以5千620萬令吉,脫售擁有100%股權的子公司Gadine私人有限公司。
針對馬屋業努力重組呆賬,肯納格研究認為,這對股價將起正面激勵作用,可削減進一步撥備的風險,同時可以釋出更多資金;不過,在短期內,歐元區經濟與全球市場走勢欠穩定仍是隱憂。
無論如何,該集團的前景保持樂觀,國內公務員領域將維持穩定的僱用狀況,以目前股價水平,該股具10%的上揚空間,加上額外的3.8%回酬率,使集團在接下來12個月,潛在總回酬率達到14%,其21.8%的股權回酬率,依然是金融股中最高之一。(星洲日報/財經)

Source: http://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/63387

Monday, July 30, 2012

Wilmar faces margin squeeze after China move: CIMB

CIMB Research said Wilmar’s consumer products unit in China may see a margin squeeze after the government asked producers to avoid raising edible oil prices “unless it is absolutely necessary”, although there is no control on cooking oil prices.

“This news could trigger near-term selling pressure on the stock. Given its underperformance relative to the market, we believe that this news has been more than priced in. But we do not advise additional exposure to the stock,” CIMB said.
It estimates that China’s move could drain 3% from the group’s 2012 fiscal year earnings if edible oil prices trend higher. Wilmar will report its second-quarter result on Aug. 14.

Wilmar shares were down 0.3% at $3.27 on Monday after falling 8.4% l ast week. The stock has dropped more than 34% so far this year versus the 14% gain in the Straits Times Index, making it the worst performing stock on the index.

Wilmar is the largest producer of consumer pack cooking oil in China with around 50% market share, CIMB said. The consumer products division made up 4.5% of the group’s 2011 fiscal year pre-tax profit, it added.

Citigroup said investors have feared that Wilmar’s weakness in oilseeds in the last two quarters will extend into the second half of 2012 and the consumer division will be weaker than expected, but the impact may be better managed in this cycle than in 2008.

China’s inflationary pressure is currently lower versus the 2008-levels and authorities have historically allowed for price increases as China relies on imports for soybeans and has to pay international prices for these imports, Citi said.

Wilmar’s valuations are attractive, Citi said, adding that it believes earnings should show some recovery in the second half versus the previous six months as the industry will likely not continue to grow crush volumes if losses continue to widen.

Source: http://www.theedgesingapore.com/the-daily-edge/business/38834-wilmar-faces-margin-squeeze-after-china-move-cimb.html

UOA on Forbes’ 200 Best Under A Billion list

PETALING JAYA: UOA Development Bhd has made it to the Forbes Asia’s 200 Best Under A Billion list, which is made up of small and medium enterprises in the Asia-Pacific region.
The property developer was one among 200 companies from 15 countries that made it to the list.
Forbes said these companies grew an average 48% last year and generated US$47bil in revenue while employing over 370,000 people.
The company, with a market value of US$548mil in the period under review, posted net income of US$121mil on US$194mil in sales.
Its completed residential projects included Villa Yarl, Desa Bangsar Ria, Plaza Menjalara and Prima Setapak II while completed commercial projects included Menara UOA Bangsar, The Horizon Phase 1, UOA II and UOA Bangsar with investments in UOA Reit.
Other Malaysian companies on the list included Benalec Holdings Bhd, Boilermech Holdings Bhd, CBSA Bhd, Digistar Corp Bhd, EA Holdings Bhd, Hartalega Holdings Bhd, M-Mode Bhd, MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd, Mudajaya Group Bhd, SKP Resources Bhd, Tecnic Group Bhd and UEM Land Holdings Bhd.

Source: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/7/30/business/11755714&sec=business

Saturday, July 28, 2012

Lian Beng Group posts 8.1% rise in full-year earnings to $51.8m

Lian Beng Group, the construction group, reported an 8.1% increase in earnings to $51.8 million for its financial year months ended 31 May 2012 (FY2012).

For the full year, the group is proposing a 1 cents tax exempt first and final 1-tier cash dividend and an additional 1 cent special tax exempt 1-tier cash dividend to be paid on Oct 19.
Total revenue for the full year was $445 million, with 75.2% coming from construction.

Riding upon the growth of the overall construction industry in Singapore, ready-mixed concrete segment grew fastest with revenue percentage contribution increasing from 8.3% in FY2011 to 17.4% in FY2012.

The group has set up an additional plant at Punggol Timor and expanded its mixer trucks fleet in FY2012, translating to an increase in the group’s property, plant and equipment from $42.6 million in FY2011 to $50.0 million in FY2012.

Lian Beng’s net order book stood at $652 million as at 31 May 2012, providing the group with a continuous flow of activities through FY2015.

Ong Pang Aik, Lian Beng’s Executive Chairman, said, “With the better overall performance of the group, we intend to increase our dividend to 2.0 cents per share for FY2012, a 25% increase from 1.6 cents per share for FY2011.” FY2012’s 2.0 cents per share of dividend works out to a dividend payout of 20.3%, and a yield of 5.5% based on closing share price of 36.5 cents as at 31 May 2012.”


Source: http://www.theedgesingapore.com/the-daily-edge/business/38796-lian-beng-group-posts-81-rise-in-full-year-earnings-to-518m.html

Wilmar tumbles to 3-yr low on China price pressure

Shares of the world’s largest palm oil firm Wilmar International fell as much as 6.4% to their lowest in more than 3 years on Friday, on market talk that China had asked edible oil suppliers to keep prices stable, traders said.

Responding to market talk that China’s government is imposing a price increase limit on cooking oil, Wilmar said there was no control on cooking oil prices.
“However, the government has advised that companies should avoid increasing prices unless it is absolutely necessary,” Wilmar said in a statement on Friday.

Wilmar shares fell more than 6% to $3.22, with 22 million shares traded, more than double its average volume over the last five sessions. Wilmar was the most heavily traded stock on the exchange by value.

The company has been hit by losses at its largely China-based oilseeds and grains business, due to rising costs and excess capacity.

Wilmar is the worst-performing stock in the benchmark index, down 31% as of Thursday’s close.

Source: http://www.theedgesingapore.com/the-daily-edge/business/38818-wilmar-tumbles-to-3-yr-low-on-china-price-pressure.html

Good investing prospects in emerging markets

By TEE LIN SAY
linsay@thestar.com.my

LONG equities. Long commodities. Asean is the next big story. Europe is going to come out better after this whole mess these are the key messages from emerging market's most influential investor, Dr Mark Mobius.
What does Mobius think is the next big thing in the economy?
A cure for cancer is coming, and anything that can satisfy instant gratification through the production of machines is on the cards, says Mobius.
Mobius: ‘Malaysia’s high domestic savings rate is an asset’.
Now, it's certainly hard to be confident of Europe considering the amount of scepticism people have on the ability of the European Union to solve its financial woes. However, Mobius who got it right by calling a “buy” after the sub-prime crisis in 2009, says the reforms going on in Europe are good developments and will see Europe coming out stronger.
It is no surprise that Mobius has been dubbed the “king of the emerging market funds“. He spends over 200 days a year shuttling from one far-flung emerging market to another in Asia, Eastern Europe, Russia, Africa and Latin America all in the name of finding value companies.
Investing in these “dangerous” and developing countries has brought an appeal to emerging markets investing.
Still sporting his signature shaven head, Mobius is known as an aggressive bottoms-up value manager. The chief aspects in making his investment decisions include transparency in operations, investor protection and good corporate governance.
Mobius, 76, who is celebrating his 25th anniversary this year with the Templeton group, presently oversees some US$45bil over 65 closed and open ended fund in emerging markets. The group now has some US$9bil invested in Asean markets.
Mobius is positive on the growth in emerging markets, saying that these economies grew five times faster than developing markets in the previous year. Those who continue to put their money in safe havens may be eventually losing out, he says.
Emerging markets comprise Asia, Latin America, Africa and emerging Europe. Together, these continents account for some 30% of the market capitalisation of the world.
It is also on this note that Mobius is bullish on commodities and Asean. He sees Asean as the next big story, fuelled in part by the emergence of Myanmar and Vietnam, its strategic location and its hard-working population of half a billion people. The rise of the Asian consumer will see higher spending on cars, food, consumer products, services and more power. Mobius sees demand for power, such as electricity, rising like a rocket.
With raw materials such as palm oil, sugar and corn being used for renewable energy purposes, Mobius sees commodities heading north, although not on a straight line.
Mobius was famously opposed to Malaysia during the Asian financial crisis, when the Government imposed capital controls in 1998. Mobius had then labelled Malaysia a “non-investible market”.
During that period, Templeton's funds were blocked from flowing out of the country for about a year due to the capital controls. That made Templeton uncomfortable as it was running open ended funds.
Today, though, that view is in the exact opposite direction.
“Many Western investors would likely have little trouble naming this year's biggest initial public offering (IPO) in the United States, but they probably don't know that two of the top three global IPOs this year have been in a small nation probably better known as a holiday destination than an investment one. That country is Malaysia, where an interesting story has been unfolding in the IPO market. This year's IPO calendar has included two companies which both received strong investment commitments that launched them into the top three of the world's largest new offerings of this year,” Mobius told the media recently in Kuala Lumpur.
Mobius said that Malaysia had stood out to many investors as an attractive investment destination. In contrast to many developed nations in the throes of debt crises, Malaysia is running current account surpluses with reserves reaching over US$130bil.
“While the total government (public) debt-to-GDP ratio has risen this past year to above 50%, a trend that concerns us its total external debt-to-GDP ratio (that owed to foreign creditors) stands near 30%, reasonable in our view. (The United States external debt-to-GDP is more than 90%, for example).
“Malaysia's high domestic savings rate is an asset, and we view the national balance sheet as strong overall. While not without challenges, Malaysia has generally been reaping the benefits of financial prudence in the wake of the 1998 Asian financial crisis and there is reason to believe growth could continue to rebound longer term,” said Mobius.
Mobius was recently in Kuala Lumpur to visit some of the companies that Templeton has invested in. The Titan of Templeton shared some of his thoughts with StarBizWeek.
On Malaysia
SBW: Do you like Malaysia?
Mobius: I love Malaysia. I like the rambutans. Malaysia is growing! (laughs) The government is making the right moves in terms of liberalisation. And Malaysia is a part of Asean. And Asean is going to be the next hot thing. It's going to be the next story globally.
I say this because you've got Myanmar which is a brand new country with resources, you've got Vietnam that is only just beginning to take off and you've got Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore. All these are hotspots. They are very exciting places. This group will begin to act as a balance to China. As you know, China is becoming more and more powerful, so it will be necessary to have a balance to China's power. Asean is going to be very exciting.
Why will it be exciting?
Number one, because of its resources. Number two, because of its strategic location between the oil markets and the Middle East and the rest of Asia. Three, the population. You've got half a billion people. Number four, tremendous agricultural and mineral resources. Number five, talented hardworking people. So you've got a tremendous growth potential. And the trade among the Asean group is growing at a very rapid pace.
We like commodities and we like consumers. Consumers as in retailing, clothing, food, supermarkets, you name it. Anything to do with consumers, because consumers in South-East Asia are getting richer. They are buying more fashionable things. For example, I like Giordano. I like Giordano because it's cheap and it fits me very nicely. I was in Thailand yesterday in a Giordano shop. They had medium size. I put it on, and I got stuck! Their design is incredible, and so is their price. But this is just an example. I'm not saying I'm buying Giordano or anything. I'm just saying that I'm using it as an example of what can be done in Asia in terms of value design and marketing. That's the kind of thing we are looking for in Malaysia. Companies like that, that can deliver products at a good price, nice value and with good distribution.
You can see a lot of Malaysian brands coming up in the market. And being more international and regional.
You mean brands like CIMB?
Yeah. A good example of that kind of branding is Crabtree and Evelyn, the one sold by Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd. It's a success in terms of marketing. Now, of course, it didn't make money, but it's a good example of what a Malaysian company can do if it wants to, in building a brand globally. That's because you see Crabtree and Evelyn in America, Europe and everywhere. So it's a success story and shows you what can be done. (KL Kepong disposed of the English retailing brand earlier this year)
What makes Malaysia special?
To give you an example, rubber is a big source here in Malaysia. We like rubber glove manufacturing because now that they have increased their research and development, they are very sophisticated and they are using lots of raw materials. So the value add is very good. That sector is good.
Plantations and palm oil. Palm oil prices over the long term will tend to increase.
There was a time when you didn't really like Malaysia?
As the government policies change, we like it. If you remember what happened during the Asian financial crisis. (Malaysia imposed capital controls) That was very bad. With us, even though we are long term, and we probably would not have sold at that time, the fact that we couldn't get out was very dangerous. Because we are running open ended funds. So, if a government says, hey you can't get out, we're stuck and we're in trouble. So then it's difficult for us to explain to our investors why we're invested in Malaysia, because we won't be able to get out. That was a problem. We understand why the government did that.
What are some of the things in Malaysia that you would like to see improve?
Number one, further liberalisation. Number two, closer ties with neighbours Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines. I think this whole border problem in Thailand need to be resolved. It cannot continue. So that would be really positive.
The whole neighbourhood should try to increase trade and cultural exchange and try to work out any conflicts. That would be very beneficial. And, of course, it is coming, especially with the Asean trade liberalisation. And we'd like to see more privatisation of state-owned enterprises.
The ranking of Malaysia in our portfolio depends on our funds. But Malaysia is growing. In our Global Fund, it is about 1%, but we're at 40 countries. So 1% is not bad. We've got US$45bil invested in our Global Fund.
We not only buy equity, we also buy Malaysian bonds.
You are positive on plantations?
Yes, we like plantations. Because demand for palm oil is growing at a rapid pace globally. More and more people are eating instant noodles and, therefore, you need more palm oil! These raw materials are going to be in demand going forward.
What about using raw materials for renewable energies?
I'm a little worried about that. Because if you look at corn prices for example, well, it is not only because of the draught in the US, but it is also because they are using it for ethanol, and it's taking it away from the food supply. What are the alternatives? The alternative is either to introduce genetically modified (GEM) seeds, use more fertilizer or open up more fields. You will have an environmental impact if you open up more fields.
One of the reasons we are buying more fertiliser companies in Europe and Russia is because demand for fertiliser is bound to be increasing as we go forward. In Europe, they are banning all GEM seeds. At least about 10% of corn crop is used for ethanol. In Brazil, sugar is being used for ethanol. So there is a real challenge going forward. In China, there are more people switching from soybeans to protein from meat. The conversion is 1 to 10. You need 10 times more soybean than you need 1 unit of meat. All of this is having a big impact moving forward. I believe this will continue to drive up commodity prices.
What about property?
I like property on a very selective basis. We do have some property companies, but we only like those that have a sustainable growth. They are not just dependent on sales but also on income. So, it would be a company that has shopping malls and office buildings that can generate rental income and housing which can also be sold.
Europe and The World
With the current ongoing turmoil in Europe, what would your investment strategy be?
Right now, we are looking at Europe as a recovery play. We think Europe is on the right path, they are doing the right things to reform. They have a long way to go because government spending in Europe is much too big. They've got to reduce the role of the government in the economy. That's the reason why, when we say the reforms of cutting up on spending, and many people say, oh it's terrible, the economy is going to the dumps. No, the economy will recover faster if you cut government spending.
Because it gives room to the private sector to come up. We think that Europe is doing the right thing, and with the discipline that is being imposed, actually they will recover very nicely.
So basically you are saying that we don't have to worry about Europe very much?
No. The problem is, a lot of the press is controlled by the British. And the British shun the euro. They don't want to give up this relic of the British pound. They should really be in the euro. They are resisting that, so that's why you hear a lot of bad news. That Greece is going to leave the euro, blah, blah, blah.
The reality is that none of the Greeks want to leave the euro. Euro is a very good currency. And the question is why is the euro at 1.20 to the US dollar? Why doesn't it go down to 0.8? Whats happening? There's something about the euro.
What are some of the things you want to see changed in Europe before you become more positive?
Well, of course, we want to see more ongoing reforms in terms of labour flexibility. By the way, this is very important for Malaysia as well. It has to be more flexible in terms of company to hire and fire with reasonable grounds, of course. But there should not be restrictions to do that. That's the reason why I said in Italy, once you have over 20 people, then you've got to have a labour negotiator, you've got to have this and that. So, they don't want to hire once they reach 19 people!
Because all the burden of government requirements come in. All these kinds of restrictions and problems, which Greece has, by the way, have to be wiped out. You have to get this out. Because what creates employment? The small enterprises. You've got to help these small enterprises by reducing bureaucracy. Reducing red tape.
Making the government more efficient. There has to be a measure of government efficiency. You've got to make it much easier to get a licence. Here, I mean, how long does it take to get in line and get a licence in Malaysia? You gotta make it faster.
In Greece, you can't even get a taxi licence! They have restrictions on this and that. On what you can and cannot do. All of these things are not good for the economy.
How serious are the problems in the European banking system? Are you particularly worried about any European bank? Spain for example?
If Europe wanted to, it could do what the United States did. Just buy up all the bad banks. But the Europeans say no. We are not going to do that, because we want to see some discipline. We want you to take the pain.
The European Central Bank just said that senior debt holders had to take the pain too. Before, they are exempted, there has to be shared pain. Why? Because then, they will have no more of this nonsense in the future. They will realise that if you invest in the bank, you take a risk, and you have to watch the bank carefully. So the moral hazard, they are trying to reduce. I think it's a very positive development for the Europeans.
So you are happy with the developments in Europe, and under those circumstances, you would be long rather than short?
Yes.
What about China?
China is now the second largest economy in the world. You can't expect to see a huge economy like that to grow at double digit. It's just too big. If the US goes at 3%, you say oohh wow! Its incredible. The same thing with China. So China growing at 7.5% is incredible growth.
What is it that you like in China?
Again, we like consumer products, And anything to do with power and energy.
When you say power and energy, do you mean renewables?
No. There is no money in renewables. You see the big conflict with the solar power? Why? Europeans were ok before because the government is giving them all this money. Now when the government says no more money, it's gone down.
I'm not saying renewables don't have a chance. But if renewables have to have a chance, it will be when oil goes to US$150 a barrel. Then solar and wind become more competitive. But at these prices, it's very difficult.
But what we like is diversified oil companies. Because demand for power globally is going up like a rocket. Why? Because when you see the number for automobiles ... they use either diesel or gasoline or lubricated oil. House need electricity. And they need more electricity. Why? Because they own the Internet, watching TV, home appliance, every cellphone needs electricity. I mean, I don't know what I would do if I don't have electricity. I can't charge my cellphone anymore. That would be a problem.
This is a global issue. I was in Nigeria recently and I got stuck in the elevator. No power. Unreliable power with no central system. Everyone there has to have a generator.
The next big thing
What do you think is the next big thing? What will be the norm 5-10 years down the road?
I think it's got to do a lot with personal consumption. And there's going to be more instant gratification, in the sense that if you want something, it will be more personalised and it will be delivered faster. Communications and transportation will be increased to such an extent that if you want something, you get it the next day or the same day and it will be personalised.
For example, say a dress. You want a red dress, you want it in your size, you want a little trimming here and you want a little change there, You will request for it, and it will be done. By machines. It will be produced by printing. The printing system will be so improved. These companies which are doing the printing of the products are going to be the next big thing.
And the next big thing is also the pharmaceuticals. The gene manipulation, make you look young, feel young, avoid certain sicknesses. For example if you have a gene which makes you prone to cancer, they can change that gene.
You think they are discovering that soon?
Yes. It's happening already. There have been big improvements in cancer. Let me give you an example. One of our analyst in China got blood cancer. We bought medicine for him costing US$30,000. It's expensive, but he's cured now. We got it from the United States. There are now cures. They used to have chemotherapy and radiotherapy that ate a lot of other cells, but now they can do it very precisely with very precise medicine.
So you think there is a cure for cancer?
Yes, a cure for cancer. There are a number of companies who are doing it. These are the kinds of things that you see coming down the road, and will be a tremendous boon to mankind. I am hoping they will move faster as I get older. To reverse the aging process!
On trading and style of investing
Who's style of investing do you most resemble among the investing greats?
Well, it's John Templeton.
Your investment idol?
I would say John Templeton. Or Warren Buffett is probably the closest to our mentality.
Do you keep your money in your own funds?
Yes. All my equity money is my own funds. Everything. I don't buy any other funds or individual stocks. Too complicated for us because we have to report.
What is the most prominent fallacy in the public's perception about markets?
Ya, the big myth is that you can lose a lot of money in the markets and you have to be careful because it's run by a bunch of crooks. For the most part, companies listed on the market are run by good people who are trying their best.
Of course, there are instances of crooks and people who cheat, but most of them are good.

Source: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/7/28/business/11721697&sec=business

Friday, July 27, 2012

猜猜,他在唱什么呢?

猜猜看,他的歌和什么有关呢?
哦,肯定不是在唱和股市有关的事情。
但,却和投资心理有关。
唉呀呀呀呀..........,股市又跌了啊!
唉呀呀呀呀..........,股市又起了啊!
哭哭噜哭哭 .......
哭哭噜哭哭 .......
股市没有起跌,是你的心在起跌 .........

DBS cuts Wilmar target price

DBS Vickers cut its target price on shares of palm oil firm Wilmar International to $3.90 from $4.25 and kept its hold rating, citing slower margin recovery for oilseeds and grains.

By 12:19 p.m., Wilmar shares were 2.3% lower at $3.47 and have fallen about 30% so far this year, compared to the Straits Times Index’s 13.7% rise.
DBS lowered its earnings estimates for Wilmar in 2012-2014 by 4-8% and also expects margins for its consumer business to compress for the next two years due to stronger feedstock costs.

Wilmar’s second-quarter earnings should recover by 36-56% to US$280-320 million ($354-$402 million) compared to the previous three months, DBS said, but contributions from consumer and sugar businesses are expected to be softer due to seasonally lower volumes.

“While the second half should see Wilmar benefiting from a 50% increase in Indonesian refining capacity and a seasonal uplift in crude palm oil output, we remain cautious on the counter given the intense competition in China oilseed crushing business and thin refining spreads in Malaysia and the EU,” said DBS.

Source:http://www.theedgesingapore.com/the-daily-edge/business/38785-dbs-cuts-wilmar-target-price-.html

Mistry: Palm oil in for another retreat in prices

He forecasts weakening demand outweighing a decline in Malaysian production
KUALA LUMPUR: Dorab Mistry compared the palm-oil market in 1998 to the Titanic and correctly predicted a slump from then-record prices the next year. He's now forecasting another retreat as weakening demand outweighs a decline in Malaysian production.
Malaysia, the second-largest grower after Indonesia, will reap less than 18.6 million metric tonnes, at least 2.1% below the government's 19 million-tonne forecast, according to Mistry, the director of Godrej International Ltd who has traded vegetable oils for more than three decades. Futures may decline 7.9% to RM2,700 (US$852) a tonne by the end of the year, the lowest since October 2010, unless the United States did more to stimulate growth and boost demand, he said.
“Production has actually underperformed, even worse than I expected,” as Malaysia's palms enter a less-productive point in their cycle after a bumper crop last year, the 59-year-old said. Demand is “just not there,” he said in a July 5 interview at new offices in Singapore that will become a trading hub for Godrej within five years. Palm, the most-consumed vegetable oil, already tumbled 19% from a 13-month high in April on prospects for record global production. Prices for the commodity used in everything from Nestle SA's Maggi instant noodles and Unilever soaps to candy bars and biofuels, more than doubled in the past decade as producers failed to keep up with consumption. There is now mounting concern about demand as European economies sink back into recession and growth slows from China to Mexico.
Mistry: ‘Demand is just not there.’
The slump since April left futures traded on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange 7.7% lower for the year at RM2,932. Prices might drop as low as RM2,200 if there was a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis, Mistry said in June.
The Standard & Poor's GSCI gauge of 24 commodities fell 2.1% since the start of the year and the MSCI All-Country World Index of equities rose 1.4%. Treasuries returned 3.2%, a Bank of America Corp index shows.
Global palm oil consumption almost doubled in the past decade to 51.7 million tonnes, or about 33% of total demand for cooking oils, US Department of Agriculture data show. At this year's average of RM3,218, total supply is valued at about US$54bil. That compares with about US$2.5bil of outstanding contracts on the bourse in Kuala Lumpur and US$10.1bil of open interest in soybean-oil futures traded on the Chicago Board of Trade, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Mistry became known as Mr Titanic after he compared world vegetable-oil prices to the ill-fated liner and he says his speeches at conferences in Kuala Lumpur over the next five years were preceded by Celine Dion's theme song from the 1997 movie.
He predicted in 1998 that the country's palm production would decline on reduced yields caused by El Nino, a weather pattern that can parch parts of Asia.
Output dropped 8.3% to 8.32 million tonnes, the first decline in four years, Palm Oil Board data show. Prices climbed to a then-record RM2,562 in May that year, before plunging 74% by February 2001.
The Indian-born trader, now based in London, has also got it wrong. He said in 2011 that palm would advance to RM4,000 by June this year because of declining output in Indonesia and Malaysia. Prices peaked at RM3,628 in April and the subsequent slump prompted Mistry to reverse his predictions and become bearish.
Slower production: A Federal Land Development Authority (FELDA) farmer sits on oil palm fruits to be delivered to the factory in Hulu Selangor, about 100 km (62 miles) north of Kuala Lumpur in this file photo. Malaysia will reap less than 18.6 million metric tonnes, at least 2.1% below the Government’s 19 million-tonne forecast, according to Mistry. - Reuterpic
“He is normally on the extreme side on either up or down,” said Ben Santoso, a Singapore-based analyst at DBS Vickers, the brokerage unit of DBS Group Holdings Ltd., Southeast Asia's biggest bank, who has attended the annual palm oil conference in Malaysia since 2001. “Nevertheless, we have to take consideration of what he said, the reasoning that he put out and see whether we've missed something.”
While Mistry says his forecasts have a 70 % success rate, he discounts those other analysts might consider accurate. He said in February 2008 that prices would reach 4,500 ringgit. In the four days after his speech, futures jumped 16 % to 4,486 ringgit before retreating to a three-year low of 1,331 ringgit in October. He says that was “a big failure” because he had predicted a gradual advance over the year. - Bloomberg
After the crash, his best trade was buying palm stearin, derived from oil and used for products such as margarine. He said prices would rally because the U.S. would intervene to halt the rout. The Federal Reserve bought $2.3 trillion of debt in two rounds of so-called quantitative easing from December 2008 to June 2011. Palm futures more than doubled as the Standard & Poor's GSCI gauge of 24 commodities rose about 90 %.
Kalimantan Plantations
The Singapore office on the 24th floor of a 50-storey skyscraper will be the regional trading hub for Godrej International Trading and Investments Pte, a unit created in 2010. The company, which Mistry plans to visit once a month, will also oversee about 20,000 hectares (49,400 acres) of land owned with local partners in Indonesia's Kalimantan, 20 % of which is already planted.
Godrej is investing in plantations to reduce its reliance on suppliers. The group uses vegetable oils for products including its Cinthol soap, sold in India since 1918, and to supply its Godrej Industries Ltd. unit, which makes chemicals. The Godrej Group based in Mumbai, which started in 1897 as a lock manufacturer, is led by Indian billionaire Adi Godrej.
Mistry was born in the western Indian state of Gujarat in 1953, moving with his family to Mumbai three years later. He attended Bombay University and later qualified as an accountant. Since moving to the U.K. with Godrej in 1977, he has been part of the 5,000-strong community of Zoroastrians, who follow an ancient monotheistic religion founded in Persia.
Zoroastrian Role
As a past president of the Zoroastrian community in Europe, Mistry counts the mother of Freddie Mercury as one of his friends, although he never met the singer of rock band Queen, who died in 1991. He was a guest at Queen Elizabeth II's Golden Jubilee celebration in Westminster Abbey in 2002.
As a self-described “one-man research team,” Mistry tracks weather patterns as well as supply and demand. His sources include the plantation industry and data from the USDA and Oil World, a Hamburg-based research company. The married father of three speaks at conferences about five times a year.
“Most people do realize that it's a tough job and it's brave of someone to openly speak about prices,” Mistry said. “They also know it's a market: you can't be right 100 % of the time.”
--Editors: James Poole, Philip Revzin
To contact the reporter on this story: Ranjeetha Pakiam in Kuala Lumpur at rpakiam@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Poole at jpoole4@bloomberg.net
07-25-12 2357EDT

Source: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/7/27/business/11738503&sec=business

Tuesday, July 24, 2012

JB Foods jumps 40% above IPO price

Shares of JB Foods, a Malaysian cocoa ingredient producer, surged 40% above the initial public offering price of $0.30 on their trading debut in Singapore.

JB Foods shares leapt as high as $0.42 on volume of more than 130 million shares. The stock was the top traded by both value and volume in the overall Singapore market. The FT ST Small Cap Index was down 0.5%.
JB Foods sold 100 million shares, comprising 84 million new shares, at $0.30 each.

The company said it intends to use the net proceeds of $23 million to fund acquisitions, finance the construction of a factory and a warehouse in Malaysia, acquire production equipment and machinery, among others.

JB Foods is one of the latest small-cap IPOs in the Singapore market.

Food caterer Neo Group made a strong trading debut two weeks ago, but its shares have fallen and were now trading only about 3% above its IPO price.

Source: http://www.theedgesingapore.com/the-daily-edge/business/38713-jb-foods-jumps-40-above-ipo-price.html

Muhibbah Engineering to diversify income streams



KLANG: Muhibbah Engineering (M) Bhd hopes to improve its recurring income base by intensifying its focus on build, operate and transfer projects in the oil and gas sector in the Asean region.

The group is also looking at project management contracts (PMCs) in the oil and gas sector to reduce its reliance on contracting works, said its business development director Mac Chung Jin.

"Margins for contracting works are very cyclical these days. There is currency fluctuation when you go abroad and there is also price fluctuation. When oil price goes up, everything else does, too.

"Due to that, many have started to move away from being pure contractors. There are talks by Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) to go into marginal fields, which is a good sign of positive things happening," Mac told Business Times recently.

Muhibbah Engineering has identified international partners to jointly venture into the development of marginal fields by Petronas.

For fiscal 2011, the group registered a pre-tax profit of RM114.93 million on revenues of RM1.96 billion. Most of the earnings for Muhibbah, which has an order book of RM3.1 billion, are from infrastructure construction projects.

Muhibbah is also interested in the RM61 billion refinery and petrochemical integrated development (Rapid) project in Johor, as well as oil and gas projects in Sabah.

The projects in Sabah include the oil and gas terminal at Kimanis, the Sabah-Sarawak gas pipeline, the gas-fired power plants in Kimanis and Lahad Datu, and the re-gastification plant in Lahad Datu.

"We hope to get a few packages from these projects. We have not submitted a bid but will look out for the tender documents," Mac said.

"There is a possibility that we may go slightly off of what we are doing now but we are quite bullish on what we want and where we want to be."

Overseas, Mac said the group was eyeing new markets like Myanmar, where opportunities are available in the areas of agriculture, oil and gas, tourism and telecommunication.

"Myanmar is a country where a lot of people are talking about currently and we want to jump on the bandwagon," he said.

Mobius sees prospects in oil and gas

By TEE LIN SAY
linsay@thestar.co.my 

KUALA LUMPUR: The oil and gas, plantation and rubber gloves industries are some of the sectors that Templeton Emerging Markets Group executive chairman Dr Mark Mobius likes in Malaysia.
Mobius, who is the pioneer in global and merging markets investing, foresees demand for these commodities continuing to grow along with the rise of consumerism and food needs in Asean.
He likes what the current administration is doing with the Malaysian economy and hopes to see more liberalisation in times to come.
“I hope to see more ongoing reforms and labour flexibility here. Companies should be able to hire and fire with reasonable freedom. In most economies, it is the small and medium industries that create growth. You have to cut the bureaucracy. How long do you need to get a licence? You have to do it faster,” Mobius told StarBiz.
Mobius would also like to see Malaysia form closer ties with its neighbours such as Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines. He would also like to see more privatisation of state-owned enterprises.
“I would like to see the Asean countries do more trade, have more cultural exchanges and work out conflicts with one another,” he said.
Currently, Malaysia's weightage in Templeton's Global Fund is some 1%. The fund has a fund size of US$45bil (RM139.5bil) and is invested in over 40 countries.
Mobius said that the next big story would be Asean, especially with the emergence of Myanmar and Vietnam which was just taking off.
He is especially bullish on the prospects of Asean for its resources, strategic location, population, agricultural and mineral resources and its talented and hard-working people.
“We like consumerism. We like companies that can sell products at a good price and are good at marketing and distribution,” said Mobius.
Mobius' Global Fund has a track record of delivering an average of 10% over the last 25 years, while the Asia Growth Fund has delivered some 14% in returns. This year marks Mobius' 25-year anniversary with the Templeton group.

Source: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/7/24/business/11717049&sec=business

 

Monday, July 23, 2012

手握29億現金‧東方實業寫5年新高

(吉隆坡19日訊)東方實業(ORIENT,4006,主板消費品組)皇冠上的種植、車業、產業等“寶石”熠熠生光,手握29億令吉現金更受分析員唱好,股價繼續迎風起舞,週四最高一度上漲至7令吉47仙,寫下5年新高。
該股閉市揚9仙,掛7令吉43仙。
聯昌研究給予“超越大市”評級,目標價為9令吉10仙;這是依據其重估淨資產值(RNAV)每股11令吉40仙折價20%計算。
“重估其種植業務、本田車與電單車大馬市佔擴展為股價上漲催化劑。”
該行指出,東方實業適時轉化與趁早投資印尼種植業帶來強穩現金。“每股淨現金3令吉80仙,令3令吉30仙實參與地庫與產業投資,換言之是免費獲得參與種植業與車業。”
其車業盈利預期恢復至2011年前水平,種植業將持續是盈利支柱,佔淨利33%。約有60%盈利來自種植業與投資收入,未來增加種植面積與多元化至保健領域,有望擴大淨利幅度。目前持有29億令吉,2014財政年有望增至37億令吉現金,會加強併購種植資產步伐。(星洲日報/財經)

Source: http://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/62986

JB Foods IPO is 4.1 times oversubscribed

JB Foods said its IPO of 100 million shares at 30 cents apiece was 4.1 times oversubscribed based on the total shares available in the placement and public tranches.
At the close of the invitation, 2012, 5,136 applications for 408.91 million offer shares were received for the 100 million invitation shares comprising 3 million new shares for public subscription. There were also another 97 million placement shares.

In total, JB Foods received $122.7 million in application monies.
Trading of the stock begins on Monday.

Source:http://www.theedgesingapore.com/the-daily-edge/business/38682-jb-foods-ipo-is-41-times-oversubscribed.html

Friday, July 20, 2012

華陽建議以4配1比例派發紅股

(吉隆坡19日訊)華陽(HUAYANG,5062,主板產業組)首季盈利符合市場預期,加上私下配售新股和紅股建議受看好,分析員上調目標價和繼續給予“買進”評級。
達證券表示,截至2013年財年第一季,華陽錄得1千650萬令吉淨利,佔該行全年淨利預測的23%。
“首季銷售進賬加快,驅動華陽營業額增加59%,因而帶動淨利按年激增44%。”
此外,華陽建議私下配售1千440萬股或10%新股,估計潛在籌措資金可達2千664萬令吉,並預計所籌措的資金將用於收購地庫。
與此同時,華陽也建議以4配1比例派發紅股,而紅股派發政策預計在私下配售完成後才實行。達證券認為指出,上述私下配售與派發紅股計劃,其股本將由1億4千400萬股擴大37.5%至1億9千800萬股。
根據週三閉市價1令吉97仙計算,預計紅股除權後是1令吉58仙。
盈利稀釋8%
獲未入賬銷售支撐
達證券估計私下配售將稀釋華陽8%的盈利,但近期新推出產業計劃、加上未入賬銷售支撐,因此維持華陽2013年及2014年財年盈利預測不變。
目前,華陽推出價值約1億5千400萬令吉的2棟公寓,及仍有4億7千600萬令吉未入賬銷售收入,該行因此對華陽今年盈利成長保持樂觀。
預計華陽近期將繼續進行土地收購計劃,此舉可能使2013財政年旗下產業發展計劃值額(GDV)至少達4億令吉,而上述私下配售計劃,或許會派上用場。
由於華陽保持穩定的盈利成長、強勁的管理執行能力及未來地庫行使的利好消息,達證券認為華陽將獲市場重估,因此目標價從2令吉42仙提高至3令吉零3仙,並維持“買進”評級。(星洲日報/財經)
Source: http://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/62959

Thursday, July 19, 2012

Hua Yang profit up as works progress

PETALING JAYA: Hua Yang Bhd posted a higher net profit of RM16.47mil for its first quarter ended June 30, compared with RM11.48mil in the previous corresponding period. Revenue surged to RM97.96mil from RM61.75mil previously.
In filings with Bursa Malaysia, it said steady construction progress recognition especially for its service apartments projects in Klang Valley including One South and Symphony Heights as well as Taman Pulai Indah in Johor Baru and Bandar University Seri Iskandar at Perak were the major contributor to the higher revenue and pre-tax profit.

Source: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/7/19/business/11689173&sec=business

More on TheEdge Malaysia - Link

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

華陽首季淨利料續勁揚

(吉隆坡16日訊)華陽(HUAYANG,5062,主板產業組)將於本月18日宣佈2013財政年首季業績,達證券預見受4億8千800萬令吉未入賬銷售支持,首季淨利有望延續強勢成長,上調未來兩年財測7至10%。
達證券說,華陽在上財政年錄得5億2千萬令吉新產業銷售,按年寫下67%強勢成長,由於該公司計劃在今年推介高達8億1千500萬令吉新產業,預見今年產業銷售有望走揚至5億9千萬令吉。

“我們原本預測該公司盈利表現將在今年正常化,但從該公司管理層口中得知,受龐大未入賬銷售加持,首季入賬情況維持良好,其中已進入入賬階段的One South零售和精緻辦公室首階段發展計劃,料成為盈利主要推動力。”
根據管理層說法,價值1億6千萬令吉的Desa Pandan計劃預定在明年1月推介,達證券對計劃銷售前景看法樂觀,同時認為就該區其他產業價格來看,產業估值有可能過於保守,不排除發展值在未來上揚的可能性。
地庫方面,華陽上財政年共填補發展值約4億6千500萬令吉的地庫,達證券預測該公司今年或另外收購約4億令吉發展值土地,以支持未來盈利成長。
該行原本預測華陽今年盈利成長將放緩至24%,但考量產業銷售表現令人鼓舞,決定上調今年盈利成長至35%,淨利料報7千180萬令吉。
按目前市價推算,達證券認為華陽僅以2013年3倍本益比交易,股息回酬更超過8%,估值並不昂貴,上調目標價至2令吉42仙,給予“買進”評級。(星洲日報/財經)

Source: http://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/62832

WCT 3年複合增長率181% - Gateway@KLIA2改變產業模式‧

Gateway@KLIA2改變產業模式‧WCT 3年複合增長率181%

MBSB expects another year of record profits

By B.K. SIDHU
bksidhu@thestar.com.my

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia Building Society Bhd (MBSB) expects another year of record profits this year after posting record gains for three consecutive years, said its president/chief executive officer Datuk Ahmad Zaini Othman.
He did not give any figures but said the higher profits would be possible because MBSB expected 20% loan growth this year and non-performing loans to be lower at 6% compared with 8% last year.
MBSB's net profit for the financial year ending Dec 31, 2011 was RM325mil and for the first quarter ended March 31, 2012, the institution reported a 16.31% rise in net profit to RM79.4mil. The increase was mainly due to higher income from its Islamic banking operation.
Analysts are expecting the group to report RM360mil to RM377mil net profit for the full year. For 2010 and 2009, the group reported net profit of RM146mil and RM57mil respectively.
“There are so many things that we had been doing over the last three years and we had been hitting record profits, this year we will again achieve record profits,'' he told StarBiz.
As at the end of last year, total deposits from corporate and retail clients stood at RM13.5bil, which was a 29% increase from RM10.5bil in 2010.
MBSB's net loans and advances grew 42% to RM15.2bil in 2011 and its assets was RM17.36bil as at the end of last year.
Zaini pointed out that the group was not having any funding issues, although a recent media report quoting analysts did allude to that.
“As a financial institution which is taking deposits to the tune of RM17bil to RM18bil, we have enough support from investors and lenders and we are growing our business very well. Why should there be any issues? We may not come under the purview of Bank Negara, but we have enough checks and balances put in place to avoid any systemic risk.
“We cannot be grouped with some other cooperatives, such as RCE Capital, as they do not collect deposits from the public or government agencies and corporates. But we do, and this creates a negative perception in the market place for us,'' he said.
He also explained that MBSB was now a “totally different organisation'' from the past and it was more aggressive and dynamic now and was able to compete aggressively alongside banks for loans.
“The MBSB of (yester-years) had legacy loans, profitability and operational issues. But since I came on board in 2009, we have transformed the group and put in processes and stringent procedures that normal banks have. We have credit and profit risks management systems, credit scoring and even CCRIS (central credit reference information system) in place.
“In fact, we have re-engineered the institution so much that our personal financing packages are the most competitive in the market place,” he said.
MBSB is 65% owned by the Employees Provident Fund and based on its share price closing yesterday at RM2.43, it has a market capitalisation of about RM3bil.

Source: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/7/18/business/11681303&sec=business

Roubini sticks to 2013 'perfect storm' prediction

NEW YORK: Economist Nouriel Roubini is standing by his prediction for a global "perfect storm" next year as economies the world over slow down or shudder to a complete halt, geopolitical risk grows and the euro zone's debt crisis accelerates.
Roubini, the New York University professor dubbed "Dr Doom" for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, highlighted five factors that could derail the global economy.
Those factors are a worsening of the debt crisis in Europe; tax increases and spending cuts in United Sates that may push the world's biggest economy into recession; a hard landing for China's economy; further slowing in emerging markets; and a military confrontation with Iran.
"Next year is the time when the can becomes too big to kick it down (the road)...then we have a global perfect storm," Roubini said in a television interview with Reuters.
Roubini's gloomy 2013 outlook isn't new, but it's getting more purchase as slowing economies and Europe's debt crisis drive turbulence in financial markets.
After what he expects will be a flat year for U.S. stocks in 2012, Roubini said the equity market could face a sharp correction next year, with little the Federal Reserve can do to stop it.
"There might be a weak rally because people are being cheered by more quantitative easing by (Chairman Ben) Bernanke and the Fed, but if the economy is weakening, that is going to put downward pressure on earnings growth," said Roubini.
Roubini said the Federal Reserve may be pushed toward unconventional policy options as the stimulative effect of successive waves of quantitative easing - effectively printing money to buy government bonds - diminishes over time.
Unconventional policy could include "targeting the 10-year Treasury at 1 percent, doing credit easing rather than quantitative easing, targeting nominal GDP, price-level targeting and lots of stuff that is more esoteric," said Roubini. "Eventually if everything goes wrong, they can even buy equities." - Reuters

Source: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/7/18/business/20120718080505&sec=business

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Fate of IPPs to be known in September

Malaysia's first-generation independent power producers (IPPs), whose licences to operate will expire by 2016, will know whether they can carry on with their businesses or not by September
this year.


Energy Commission chief executive officer Datuk Ahmad Fauzi Hasan said the government is in talks with the IPPs to come up with a more competitive power purchase agreements (PPAs).

"The extension of the licence to operate will be allowed based on the IPPs' willingness to reduce the PPAs under a new PPA agreement with new rates and new terms. However, the reduction will differ from one IPP to another," Ahmad Fauzi told Business Times in an interview here recently.

The restricted tender offer for the first-generation IPPs will close at end of the month.

He said the first-generation PPAs, which will expire on 2016 and 2017, will not be renegotiated and will be replaced with a new competitive tender which can be extended to another ten years subject to new terms.

The new terms include a reduction in capacity payments by as much as RM6 per capacity payment.

Malaysia's power sector has long been burdened by the first-generation IPPs because they enjoy lucrative terms in their concession agreements since the 1980s.

This is because at the time Tenaga Nasional Bhd (TNB) was unable to meet the country's power-consuming industries and IPPs were offered to supply the additional power on a fast-track basis at cut-throat rates.

The expensive rate has caused TNB to bleed financially as it is forced to pay capacity payments to the tune of up to RM2 billion a year to the IPPs alone.

This is because TNB has to pay for the extra power regardless whether it is used or not. It is also to ensure a continuous power supply to consumers as power cannot be stored.

A reserve margin of 20 per cent must also be generated as back-up in the event of a national blackout or power dip.

Now the government plans to get tough with the IPPs, of which only half of the PPAs may be extended and the IPPs are facing a shakeout under a new government initiative which will determine the pricing and tenure of PPAs.

The new PPA rate will be more competitive compared to the first-generation PPA.

TNB and the country's five IPPs operate 11 first-generation power plants with a collective capacity of 6,320 megawatts (MW) compared with the country's overall power consumption of between 18,000MW and 22,000MW installed capacity.

TNB's five first-generation power plants and five private power companies have qualified for the restricted tender offer.

The private players are YTL Power Generation Sdn Bhd, Genting Sanyen Power Sdn Bhd, Segari Energy Ventures Sdn Bhd, Port Dickson Power Sdn Bhd and Powertek Bhd.

Friday, July 13, 2012

Ezra's 3Q earnings surge to $29m; clinches $209m in new contracts

Ezra Holdings, the offshore contractor and provider of integrated offshore solutions, said it posted a 244% increase in earnings to US$22.4 million ($28.5 million) for the third quarter ended 31 May 2012 (3Q FY12).
Group revenue rose 61% to US$265.6 million for the quarter from last year, due mainly to the commencement of new subsea projects awarded after Ezra’s acquisition of the AMC Group in March last year. EMAS AMC, the subsea division, was also largely the driver for the 53% increase in Ezra’s gross profit to US$44.4 million in 3Q FY12.

In a separate announcement, Ezra also announced that its EMAS Marine offshore support services division won six charter contracts totalling US$87 million.

The new charters are for both platform supply vessels (PSVs) and anchor, handling, towing and supply (AHTS) vessels. The charterers include oil majors, an independent exploration & production (E&P) company and oilfield services companies.

Meanwhile, in another press announcement, Ezra said Triyards, its fabrication unit, also clinched a new US$77 million order for a specialised offshore unit.

The contract adds to Triyards’ fast-growing order book which includes two self-elevating, mobile offshore units and the Lewek Constellation,a deepwater multi-lay vessel.

Source: http://www.theedgesingapore.com/the-daily-edge/business/38529-ezra-holdings-3q-earnings-surge-to-29m-clinches-209m-in-new-contracts.html

Muhibbah Engineering eyes more Gorgon deals

MUHIBBAH Engineering (M) Bhd plans to bid for sub-contracting works for the A$43 billion (RM136.7 billion) Gorgon LNG jetty and marine structure project in Australia, a key official said.

The engineering and construction group has won two contracts for the project. It won a RM40 million contract in March 2010, and the second job, valued at RM150 million, in early 2011.

The contracts are to pre-assemble heavy lifting facility and tug pen breakwater caissons and preparation of shipping barges for the project.

"Since most of the main packages for the Gorgon project has been awarded, we are now looking at the possibility of securing sub-contracting jobs, mainly structural steel fabrication work," said Muhibbah Engineering's business development director Mac Chung Jin.

Mac told Business Times in an interview that the group is in talks with the main contractors for the project, for the fabrication work.

"We have not submitted any bids. If we do, it would be towards year-end, albeit cautiously as profit margins as a third-layer sub-contractor are low. When we are too far down the chain, the margins are a bit tight.

"We are, however, proud to have our name associated with the Gorgon project. Directly and indirectly, because of our involvement in this project, it has given us international recognition and we have won new jobs," Mac said.

In December 2011, Muhibbah Engineering's joint-venture company, Monadelphous Muhibbah Marine joint venture, was awarded a RM1.05 billion contract to construct the approach jetty and ship berth in Queensland, Australia.

The joint venture is a 50:50 venture with Australian-listed Monadelphous Group Ltd's wholly owned unit Monadelphous Engineering Pty Ltd.

The contract is associated with the Wiggins Island Coal Export Terminal Pty Ltd's Project at Gladstone.

CIMB Research had raised its fiscal year 2012 and 2013 forecasts on Muhibbah Engineering's earnings by two to four per cent after the group won the RM1.05 billion contract.

For fiscal 2011, Muhibbah Engineering registered pre-tax profit of RM114.93 million on revenues of RM1.96 billion.

Thursday, July 12, 2012

Citi upgrades Wilmar to buy, cuts Olam target price

Citigroup upgraded palm oil firm Wilmar International to ’buy’ from ’neutral’, citing cheap valuations but cut its target price to $4.80 from $5.30 to reflect lower 2012 earnings.
“While there may be one more choppy quarter to go in this cycle, the worst of the negative revisions cycle should be over by the second quarter,” it said in a report.

Wilmar’s earnings are expected to show some recovery in the second half, and its oilseeds processing margins should also improve, Citi said.

At 12:09 p.m., shares of Wilmar were down 0.8%t at $3.58, and have lost 28.4% since the start of the year, versus the Straits Times Index’s 11% gain.

Olam’s shares rose 1.4%t to $1.86, but have fallen 12.7% this year.

The broker also cut its target price for Olam International to $2.75 from $3.10, citing growing competition in the sector and lower return on equity expectations due to a longer gestation phase for its assets.

Noble Group remains Citi’s top pick among Singapore trading companies, and it has a ’buy’ rating and target price of $1.68 on the commodity company.

Source:http://www.theedgesingapore.com/the-daily-edge/business/38481-citi-upgrades-wilmar-to-buy-cuts-olam-target-price.html

Barclays favours Ezra, Keppel for next earnings

Barclays said it prefers oil and gas services firm Ezra Holdings and Keppel Corp going into the next results season as it sees earnings growth and potential catalysts such as possible financing resolutions for Ezra and further contract wins for Keppel.

By 12:28 a.m., Ezra shares were 0.5% lower at $1.085, and have jumped 29% so far this year. Keppel, the world’s largest rig builder, was up 0.2% at $10.80 and has risen 16% since the start of 2012, compared with the FT ST Oil & Gas Index’s 21% gain.
Ezra is expected to deliver the highest year-on-year earnings growth in the April-June period out of the oil services and rig builders Barclays covers due to an increase in activity in its subsea business and utilisation of its offshore support segment, it said.

Barclays estimates Ezra’s earnings per share in the third quarter to jump 196% from a year ago, compared to Keppel’s 9% rise and Sembcorp Marine’s 4% gain.

"The key focus of the upcoming results will likely be on the operating margins...Ezra is expected to deliver sequentially better margins, the Singapore rig-builders are also expected to at least maintain their operating margins," said Barclays.

It has an 'overweight’ rating on Ezra with a target price of $1.70.

Barclays said the recent pullback in Keppel and Sembcorp Marine shares are an attractive entry point for investors. It rates Keppel at ’equal weight’ with a target price of $13.30, and Sembcorp Marine at 'overweight' with $7.00 target price.

Source: http://www.theedgesingapore.com/the-daily-edge/business/38501-barclays-favours-ezra-keppel-for-next-earnings.html




       

Wednesday, July 11, 2012

“末日博士”鲁比尼:“完美风暴”已逐渐展开

“末日博士”鲁比尼:“完美风暴”已逐渐展开

(2012-07-11)

(纽约综合电)有“末日博士”之称的鲁比尼(Nouriel Roubini)周一表示,他在去年年中所预言的“完美风暴”已经逐渐在欧元区、美国和中国展开。
  鲁比尼于去年年中预测说,美国的经济停滞、欧洲的债务危机、新兴市场尤其是中国的经济减速,还有伊朗的军事冲突将同时到来,并在2013年刮起全球经济的“完美风暴”。
  鲁比尼表示:“我几个月前所写2013年完美风暴正在逐步展开。”
  周一公布的中国通胀水平急剧下滑,暗示中国经济减速幅度已超出预期;同时,上周五的美国就业报告显示就业人数增幅连续第四个月维持低迷。
  鲁比尼指出,现在不像2008年,当时央行拥有“政策火力”来刺激经济。而这次,政策实施者的“魔术帽”里已经拽不出“兔子”了。
  包括欧洲央行(ECB)、英国央行(BoE)和中国人民银行上周的货币宽松政策,并未能提振全球股市的信心。

Source: http://www.zaobao.com/cg/cg120711_001.shtml

Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Coastal Contracts bags sales orders of RM446m

KUALA LUMPUR: Coastal Contracts Bhd has secured sales orders worth RM446 million for 10 offshore support vessel (OSV) units, its biggest orders since February last year.

This is expected to contribute positively to the Sabah-based shipbuilding group's earnings in the current financial year and the next, it told the stock exchange yesterday.

Its executive chairman Ng Chin Heng said the latest contracts would "significantly" strengthen the group's vessel sales order book.

Including the new contracts, the group now has about RM583 million worth of vessel sales orders awaiting delivery to customers up to 2013.

"We are glad to secure these major contracts despite the market of OSV (being) slightly congested recently. In view of the current challenging market condition and vulnerability of global economy, we have to put in more efforts to secure more vessel sales orders in future," Ng said in a press release.

The 10 OSV sales were secured from four customers, two of which are repeat customers.

Guan Chong boosts output with second production line

KUALA LUMPUR: Guan Chong Bhd, one of the leading cocoa processors in the region, has commissioned a second production line at its plant in Batam, which takes the group’s total annual capacity to 200,000 tonnes.
It said the new 60,000-tonne line brought the Batam facility’s yearly output to 120,000 tonnes.
The company also has a cocoa grinding plant in Pasir Gudang which is capable of producing up to 80,000 tonnes a year.
Managing director and chief executive officer Brandon Tay Hoe Lian said the commissioning of the second production line marked a new corporate milestone for the group.
“With the commissioning of the second line in Batam, our new total annual cocoa grinding capacity will consolidate our position as one of the regional leaders in this industry,” he said in a statement.
Aside from cocoa grinding facilities, the new production line would also provide powder pulverising and butter deodorising capabilities, he said.
The company had invested RM70mil capital expenditure in the second line and to upgrade Batam plant’s facilities, he added. — Bernama

Source: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/7/10/business/11633429&sec=business

Saturday, July 7, 2012

投资也是可以有创意的

有人如此的定义投资心理学:
“华尔街有句古老的格言:市场由两种力量推动:贪婪与恐惧。这种说法没错,但是过于简单了。人们的思想和情绪非常复杂,用“贪婪恐惧”四个字不能概括影响人们投资决策的全部心理。心理偏差往往会影响人们做出正确的投资决策。通过了解心理偏差,人们可以克服偏差,探寻投资大师们心路历程,提高财富水平。这就是投资心理学。”

我搞投资也研究心理学。看我是何定义投资心里学的:
在投资的买卖过程中,买了过后心里会一直想着要它起,卖了过后心里会一直想着要它跌的一种心里过程。这心里过程有时是难过的。

有注意到我讲的是“心里 ”吗? 哈哈!此心里非彼心理啊。

想起了一个笑话:
老师要一年级的同学用“难过”造句。
有一位小朋友这么写:“这条马路很难过。”

每当我想起什么是创意时,我都会想起这位小朋友的造句。
每当我投资难过的时候, 我也会想起这造句。
啊,这条马路很难过。





Hua Yang bullish on earnings growth

Hua Yang bullish on earnings growth

Saturday July 7, 2012 By THOMAS HUONG 

PROPERTY developer Hua Yang Bhd is looking forward to another year of impressive sales and earnings growth, says group chief financial officer May Chan.
The group, which is known for developing residential properties in the affordable segment, will also be celebrating the 10th anniversary of its listing on Bursa Malaysia this November.
It plans to launch projects with a combined gross development value (GDV) of RM815mil for its current financial year ending March 31, 2013 (FY2013).
Chan says this will more than double the RM400mil GDV of properties launched by Hua Yang in its previous financial year.
Artist Impression of One South in Seri Kembangan. It is Hua Yang’s biggest project in the Klang Valley.
The bulk of Hua Yang's sales in FY2013 will be from its Klang Valley developments, namely Phase 4 of One South in Seri Kembangan (GDV of RM200mil) as well as new leasehold service apartments in Shah Alam (GDV of RM175mil) and Desa Pandan (GDV of RM160mil).
The Desa Pandan development of two blocks of serviced apartments and two levels of retail units is on 1.55 acres in Kuala Lumpur, and is slated for a January 2013 launch.
“There will be around 400 units, sized from 540 to 1,000 sq ft. We have not firmed up prices yet. But interest is strong, with 2,000 registrations to date,” says Chan.
Meanwhile, the Shah Alam service apartments is due to be launched in October and is priced at more than RM300 per sq ft.
Another significant sales contributor in FY2013 will be new launches with a GDV of RM105mil in the group's Bandar Universiti Seri Iskandar township in Perak.
“We are also looking to acquire more land for future growth. It will be another busy year for us,” Chan tells StarBizWeek.
Presently, the group has an undeveloped land bank of 766 acres which has an estimated GDV of RM2.4bil across the Klang Valley, Johor, Perak and Negri Sembilan.
Chan says the group is looking to build on the momentum of FY2012's record-breaking success, where Hua Yang posted a 111% year-on-year increase in net profit to RM53mil while revenue rose 62% to RM306.4mil on the back of strong sales growth which was largely driven by its ongoing One South development.
One South
One South is Hua Yang's biggest project in the Klang Valley, with a GDV of RM920mil, consisting of retail units and offices, serviced apartments, soho (small office/home office) units and office towers on 16.7 acres in Seri Kembangan.
About 70% or RM365.6mil of Hua Yang's sales of RM520mil in the previous financial year (FY2012) came from One South.
Chan says the group is looking to build on the momentum of financial year 2012's record breaking success.
As of end-June, phase one which consists of retail and office units is 90% sold.
Phase 2 and 3 which consist of 795 units of serviced apartments is 100% sold.
This year, the strong sales momentum for One South has continued with the April launch of phase 4 or Hua Yang's first ever soho development, namely Flexis@One South.
Two types of layouts are offered, consisting of single level units with built-ups of 475 and 628 sq ft, as well as duplex (split level) units ranging from 1,106 to 1,271 sq ft.
A typical soho unit will come with air conditioning, instant water heater, kitchen cabinets with sinks, gas hobs, audio intercom handset, Astro-ready cables and fibre optic points for high-speed Internet access.
Duplex upper floor units will have laminated timber flooring as well as a washing machine, fridge and a wardrobe.
“That way, residents need to purchase very little prior to moving in, as we have sorted out most of the fixtures,” says Chan.
Flexis@One South will have facilities on the 21st floor that ranges from a sky infinity lap pool, sky wading pool, sky pool bar, jacuzzi, floating sun deck, floating cabana, sauna, reflexology path, sky garden, barbecue deck, children's playground, rock climbing wall, meditation deck, yoga deck, Zen Garden, gazebo, study room, games room, boxing room, kitchenette, sky dining, sky lounge, sky bar to a sky fitness centre.
“Flexis@OneSouth will be the first in Seri Kembangan to have a 40m sky infinity lap pool, with a pool bar.”
Meanwhile, Chan says the first block of 266 units in Flexis@One South is fully booked, with prices starting from RM250,000 per unit.
The second block of 158 units in Flexis@One South was recently opened for bookings, and is selling at higher prices of around RM480 to RM500 per sq ft.
According to Chan, Flexis@One South is priced reasonably compared with other new high-rise developments in Seri Kembangan. Chan also points out that selling prices were in line with market demand and conditions.
“Phase 2 serviced apartments were sold at RM320 per sq ft in May last year. Subsequently, Phase 3 units were sold at RM370 per sq ft in July 2011.”
Chan says Hua Yang had bought the land for One South at RM55 per sq ft in December 2008.
“Recently, we looked at land around One South and prices have reached more than RM200 per sq ft.”
The final phase 5 and 6 of One South is likely to consist of a last block of serviced apartments and two blocks of office towers. “Initially, there plans for a hotel. But we are still exploring and looking at the best options for the final phases.”
One South is due to be completed by 2018.
Future growth
When asked whether Hua Yang is overly dependent on One South to drive sales growth, Chan says, “Not at all.”
She points out that One South has less than 25% of the combined GDV of RM815mil in new launches of projects for FY2013.
“This year, the Shah Alam and Desa Pandan developments will also drive our sales.”
As at March 31, 2012, Hua Yang's total unbilled sales from five ongoing developments stood at RM488mil.
The five ongoing developments are One South, Bandar Universiti Seri Iskandar township in Perak, Taman Pulai Indah in Johor, Senawang Link in Negri Sembilan, and Symphony Heights in Selayang, Selangor.
Developed since 2002, the 838-acre Bandar Universiti Seri Iskandar (BUSI) is Hua Yang's biggest township project.
“BUSI's GDV is estimated at RM1.2bil and it is slated to have about 6,000 residential and commercial units. So far, we have completed about 2,000 units. so, we still have eight to 10 more years to go for BUSI.”
Meanwhile, less than 20% of the 477-acre Taman Pulai Indah remains to be developed while the Senawang Link light industrial development has a GDV of RM45mil.
The Symphony Heights serviced apartments will be completed this year.
“All these, coupled with new phases and developments that will come on-stream in FY2013, gives the group a good earnings visibility for the next two years,” says Chan.
She is also confident about seeing continued positive response from buyers in the affordable market segment, such as first-time home owners, newly-weds, young adults and small families.
Chan says the group had been on an upward growth momentum since 2008, and is on track to achieve revenue of RM500mil by FY2014 and RM800mil by FY2018.
Concerning dividend payouts, Chan says the group usually pays out 25% of net profit as dividends.
For FY2012, the group has proposed a gross first and final dividend of 15 sen per share, which translates to a net dividend payout ratio of 30% of net earnings.
“This is the highest ever dividend payout.”

Source: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/7/7/business/11620382&sec=business

 

Allianz upbeat on premium growth this year

Allianz upbeat on premium growth this year

Saturday July 7, 2012 By DALJIT DHESI 

KUALA LUMPUR: Allianz Malaysia Bhd (AMB) is confident of sustaining a double-digit growth in gross written premiums (GWP) and overall earnings this year despite the gloomy global economic outlook.
Chief executive officer Jens Reisch said the group started well this year and expect to sustain its growth momentum throughout the year. He said the life insurance business was growing by a double-digit growth in gross written premiums and AMB's aspiration was to outperform the market and its peers in this segment.
The target growth was achievable as the life insurance penetration rate in the country was relatively low at 41% and would be assisted by AMB's product innovation initiatives, Reisch said at the launching of the Allianz Academy yesterday.
Reisch (right) and Wong at the launch.
The company recently said it was aiming for a 15% growth in GWP to RM3bil this year. For the first three months of this year, it saw a 13.8% jump in GWP to RM761.5mil from RM669.2mil in the previous corresponding period. Profit before tax for the period rose by 15.5% to RM76.7mil from RM66.4mil previously.
For its life insurance, GWP increased by 12.7% to RM305.1mil while that for the general insurance rose by 14.5% to RM456.4mil for the period under review. Allianz General Insurance Company (M) Bhd (AGIC) CEO Zakri Khir said he was optimistic of a double-digit growth in GWP for the general insurance segment partly due to its strong distribution channels.
Its biggest distribution channel (for general insurance) was agency, which accounted for about 50% of its total business, followed by corporate segment (20%), motor dealers (15%) and bancassurance (15%).
In the general insurance segment, AGIC was the biggest player with a 10.4% market share as of the first quarter of this year, Zakri said, adding that he expected the company to retain its market share for this year.
He said staff productivity was key in the current challenging times and AMB had placed great emphasis to enhance the level of productivity of its agents. In terms of agency count, Reisch said in total, the company had about 12,000 agents and its priority was strengthening this distribution channel.
In a recent economic research report, the Malaysian Rating Corp Bhd (MARC) said the local insurance industry remained encouraging for both life and general insurance, driven by continued rise in per capita income and ongoing mega projects. It said premiums in both segments were expected to increase at respectable rates in line with economic growth.
MARC said life new business premiums expanded at a compound annual growth rate of 9.4% between 2000 and 2011, growing from merely RM2.9bil to RM7.9bil.
Meanwhile, AMB head of human resources division Wong Woon Man said Allianz Academy was part of the company's initiative to create a culture of learning and development for all its employees.
She said one of the objectives of the Academy, which was a virtual one, was to cater to learning needs of various employees through a structured development programme.
Allianz Academy programmes are based on four learning pillars technical, sales, service and leadership, Wong said, noting that each pillar aimed to equip employees with the skills and knowledge required for their current and future roles.

Source: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/7/7/business/11617756&sec=business

 

Signs point to privatisation for Adventa

Signs point to privatisation for Adventa

PETALING JAYA: A privatisation could be on the cards for glovemaker Adventa Bhd as its valuations are cheap amidst an improving outlook in the glove sector, according to analysts.
The company yesterday suspended trading in its securities for three days from Friday to Tuesday “pending a material announcement to be released by the company.”
An industry observer speculated that the company could be privatised by its largest shareholder and CEO Low Chin Guan, who currently owns 38.5% of the company, according to Bloomberg data.
Behind Low is Lembaga Tabung Haji with a 9.38% stake, while his sister Low Lea Kwan is third with 2.95%.
When asked about the possibility of larger glovemakers taking over Adventa, which has a market capitalisation RM246mil, the observer told StarBizWeek that they had not earlier indicated any such interest.
Kenanga Research recently upgraded the rubber glove sector to “overweight” from “neutral,” citing the strengthening of the US dollar against the ringgit as well as falling latex prices.
“We reckon glove companies' earnings could see an upside bias ahead and lead to a re-rating for glove stocks in the third quarter of 2012,” it said in a client note dated June 27.
Adventa is principally involved in manufacturing surgical and examination gloves and medical devices, together with the distribution of medical products for the healthcare industry.
The volume of trading in its shares almost tripled to 246,500 on Thursday from 86,500 a day earlier, with the last done price up 8% to RM1.61.
Its estimated price-to-earnings ratio for the financial year ended Oct 31, 2012 is 12.38 times according to Bloomberg, while price-to-book is 0.3 times based on its net asset per share of RM4.02 as at end-April.
The firm reported a net profit of RM6.15mil in its second quarter ended April 30, an increase of 36% from RM4.59mil last year. Revenue was 2.23% higher at RM106.63mil versus RM104.3mil.
Its earnings in the first half were weaker than expected due to a fire that gutted its storage facilities in the first quarter, resulting in an estimated loss of RM2.12mil in fixed assets, while goods damaged amounted to RM4.61mil. Both were written off as losses.
The incident also led to constraints in storing raw materials and finished products, which in turn adversely affected the production of examination gloves.
OSK Research said in a note to clients last week that Adventa stood out for producing one of the highest-end surgical gloves targeted at niche markets in the United States, Europe and Japan region.
“We believe the company's only setback is its lack of economies of scale versus its peers, which has not enabled it to enjoy much lower unit cost per glove,” the brokerage said.

Source: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/7/7/business/11618583&sec=business

 

Wednesday, July 4, 2012

Allianz unfazed by competition

KUALA LUMPUR: Allianz Malaysia Bhd says it is unfazed by increasing competition from existing or new foreign players in the insurance landscape as the penetration rate in the country is still small.

"We are not afraid of competition. In fact, we are encouraged by it," Allianz chief executive officer Jens Reisch told Business Times yesterday.

Instead, he said, the insurer welcomes competition that would help develop the market, which has a penetration of only 41 per cent currently.

Recent news reports said foreign insurers are lining up to acquire at least two insurance entities in Malaysia.

It is believed that France's AXA and Canada's Sun Life have submitted initial bids for the Malaysian life insurance joint venture between CIMB Group and Aviva valued at least US$400 million (RM1.26 billion).

Among other names bandied out were AIA Group, Manulife and Prudential plc.

Also up for auction is Dutch-based ING's Asian insurance business.

However, when asked if Allianz could be bidding for the Aviva-CIMB life portion, he merely said: "We cannot comment on that."

Allianz Malaysia is an investment holding company for Allianz General Insurance Company (M) Bhd and Allianz Life Insurance Malaysia Bhd.

Back in 2007, Allianz acquired general insurer Commerce Assurance Bhd from CIMB Group for RM490 million, making it the second largest general insurance company.

Allainz General Insurance also has a bancassurance agreement with CIMB Bank.

Allianz Malaysia plans to grow gross written premiums by 15 per cent to RM3 billion this year, from RM2.6 billion in 2011.

Reisch said the growth would be driven by the company's innovative products and wide distribution base in Malaysia.

He said the insurer aims to launch an education plan, one of its biggest products for this year, and an investment-linked policy.