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Sunday, July 5, 2020

What ails the Malaysian property sector

Asia Analytica Published on Fri, Jul 03, 2020 / 6:30 AM GMT+8 / Updated 2 days ago
(July 3): Owning a home is a dream of most Malaysians but, for many, it remains elusive. Loan approvals for residential mortgages have been weak since 2015 (see Chart 1). Yet, property developers continue to build, with large — and rising — stocks of unsold homes. Why are many Malaysians finding homes beyond their reach, despite low interest rates?

We take a look at some of the main dynamics to understand why.

Over the last few years, the Malaysian property market has been characterised by sluggish sales and a rising number of unsold homes. Developers are sitting on large stocks of inventories, which are stretching their balance sheets, funded by borrowings from banks, and the debt and capital markets, including issuing perpetual securities. The sector’s poor outlook is reflected in the low valuation of property stocks, most of which are trading at around one-third book value.

How did this situation come about? There are several key factors: rising home supply and prices, increasing unaffordability and aggressive bank lending.

Home supply and prices

Following the end of the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis, annual home supply growth was moderate, growing mostly 2% to 2.5% a year, increasing to 3.9% to 5.1% from 2006 to 2008 (see Chart 2).

This was partly due to the lack of property speculation, as property prices, as measured by the Malaysian Property House Price Index (MHPI), plunged during the Asian financial crisis and recovered only moderately in the following years.

In the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis, home prices rose again from 2000, but only moderately, with annual price growth of mostly between 1.1% and 4.9% from 2001 to 2009, when the 2008/09 US subprime crisis hit. Thus, between the two major global crises, the housing market was marked by a period of relatively moderate price and supply growth.

In response to the 2008/09 US subprime crisis, though, governments around the world embarked on aggressive quantitative easing, stimulus spending and deep interest rate cuts. These boosted all types of asset classes worldwide, including properties.

In Malaysia, record low interest rates, the lack of a preceding price or supply bubble together with active encouragement by the government then (through home ownership campaigns, allowing the Developer Interest Bearing Scheme, waiver of stamp duties, extending loan tenures and financing limits, among others) combined to create a highly speculative property market from 2010 to 2015 (see Chart 3).

In particular, the cutting of real property gains tax rates, especially for shorter-term disposals, including a total waiver of RPGT from 2007 to 2009, further spurred property speculation (see Chart 4).

During this period, home prices surged for several consecutive years: 5.5% in 2010; 10.9% in 2011; 13.9% in 2012; 11.2% in 2013; 9.4% in 2014; and 7.4% in 2015. From 2009 to 2015, average Malaysian home prices rose a whopping total of 74%.

Rising home prices (and profit margins) led to a building boom by developers. From 2015 to 2019 (with the completion of most homes launched during the speculative period), home supply increased by an annual rate of 3.6%, more than twice the 1.6% annual population growth rate. The result was declining take-up rates and rising inventories.

All in, Malaysia had a total supply of 6.02 million homes in 2019, comprising 5.73 million houses, 38,134 SoHo units and 253,056 serviced apartments. There is now one home for every 5.4 people, compared with the average household size of 4.1 (although the statistics are skewed by foreign workers’ being densely packed in rented homes or hostels).

With shrinking household sizes, population growth and urban migration, demand for homes will continue to grow. However, can Malaysians afford a home?

Home affordability

Home affordability is a major concern, as home prices have surged well ahead of income growth.

In 2019, the average Malaysian home price, as measured by the MHPI, was RM426,155. It ranged from RM785,214 in Kuala Lumpur to below RM200,000 in Melaka, Perlis and Kelantan. The average per capita income was RM45,034.

Chart 4 shows the growth in home prices versus income (measured by real GDP per capita) from 1990 to 2019. In a timeframe of almost 30 years, average home prices have increased by a total of 5.6 times, or a 460% capital appreciation. By comparison, real GDP per capita income has grown by a total of just 2.8 times, or 180%.

The growth in home prices has outpaced that of real income by two times since 1990; in other words, home affordability has halved (Chart 5). It now takes 9.5 years of average annual income to buy an average home, double the 4.7 years that was needed in 1990.

Role of banks

Banks must also bear some responsibility for creating the housing problems, the root of which can be traced back to the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis. The collapse of large conglomerates and bad corporate loans during the crisis pushed banks to diversify their risk profile and rebalance their portfolios. A shift from corporate to consumer lending began, with an aggressive emphasis on home mortgages at low interest spreads.

From 1996 to 2019, residential property loans grew a robust 12.4% a year, well outpacing the banking sector’s annual loan growth of 7.5% (see Chart 6). As a result, its share of total banking loans surged from 12.3% in 1996 to 34.1% in 2019 while business loans fell from 59.3% to 31.2% (see Chart 7), reducing credit availability to more productive sectors.

The aggressive lending for home mortgages fuelled home demand and supply by developers, lifted property prices and created a speculative bubble. For consumers, this led to Malaysians having one of the world’s highest household debt-to-GDP ratios at more than 80% (see Chart 8), fuelled by loans for homes, cars and personal spending.

Concluding remarks

What is the primary purpose of housing to society? It is to serve the purpose of providing a shelter or a home for individuals and families. Of course, it also directly and indirectly creates jobs and business activities.

Having shelter, whether by ownership or rent, is a fundamental human right, but it is being challenged on several fronts: home prices that have risen well ahead of income growth; the high cost of living in Malaysia; highly indebted households; and a banking sector that is already overexposed to housing mortgages and property developers.

Yet, proposed solutions to the current predicament of a property glut and soft demand for the struggling property industry remain the same old ideas, which caused the current problems of high unsold inventories and rising unaffordability in the first place. These include easing financing for buyers, extending mortgage tenures, concessions on taxes and duties, and marketing campaigns with freebies.

The other solution articulated by some is that those who cannot afford to own a home should rent instead.

Rent is an expense and rises as house prices appreciate, further diminishing the savings of those who are already poor. It perpetuates a class division between the landlords and the tenants. Those with capital buy homes with a deposit, and the mortgages are paid for using the rentals earned from those who cannot afford to buy. Those who believe in this solution lack intellectual capacity, or are intellectually dishonest.

A major strategic rethink is needed to structurally address these issues. We need to move away from the demand-side solutions of the past to start finding a solution on the supply side. Look out for our ideas in the coming weeks.

The Global Portfolio gained marginally, by 0.4%, for the week ended July 2, slightly lagging the MSCI World Net Return Index, which was up 1.5%. Total portfolio returns now stand at 18.3% since inception. Nevertheless, this portfolio is outperforming the benchmark index, which is up 10.3% over the same period.

Technology stocks, by and large, continued to fare very well. Shares in Adobe, ServiceNow, Microsoft, Alphabet and Apple all ended higher for the week. On the other hand, Vertex Pharmaceuticals saw mild profit-taking after its strong gains over the past two weeks. Other losers include Alibaba Group Holding, BMC Stock Holdings and Builders FirstSource.

Click here to view the charts in detail

Disclaimer: This is a personal portfolio for information purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or solicitation or expression of views to influence readers to buy/sell stocks, including the particular stocks mentioned herein. It does not take into account an individual investor’s particular financial situation, investment objectives, investment horizon, risk profile and/or risk preference. Our shareholders, directors and employees may have positions in or may be materially interested in any of the stocks. We may also have or have had dealings with or may provide or have provided content services to the companies mentioned in the reports.

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RHB is bullish on the semiconductor industry

Broker's Calls
Samantha Chiew Published on Fri, Jul 03, 2020 / 2:37 PM GMT+8 / Updated 1 days ago
SINGAPORE (July 3): RHB Group Research is keeping its “overweight” rating on the technology sector as the semiconductor industry is expected to see a recovery. Sustained capital equipment spending and the global memory rebound can be expected for 2H20, too.

In a Friday report, lead analyst Jarick Seet says, “Inventories are stabilising, and dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) pricing is likely to rise. SEMI also expects equipment sales to grow 5.5% y-o-y to US$60.8 billion in 2020, on advance logic and foundry spending and new projects in China.”

Meanwhile, chip sales have bottomed out, and should improve. But Seet does not expect a V-shaped recovery, as moderated growth is more plausible.

As the demand for working-from-home increases on the back of global lockdowns, the semiconductor industry is likely to see an increase in demand, mainly from could and computers. Other segments like smartphones and Internet of Things (IoT) continue to enjoy strong demand globally.

The drive towards 5G has also increased the demand for communications infrastructure. Other segments include artificial intelligence, the automotive sector, as well as the high-performance computing segments.

Against this backdrop, RHB has chosen Avi-Tech Electronics, Frencken and Fu Yu as its top “buy” picks within the semiconductor industry. Seet also expects the three companies to report positive results, as these companies are positioned to benefit from the uptrend in semiconductor demand.

Already, Avi-Tech reported a strong 2Q20, with PATMI surging 46.7% y-o-y to $1.4 million.

“The semiconductor sector’s slowdown has likely bottomed out for the company, and its quarterly numbers should improve ahead. FY20 should be a much better year, with earnings having likely bottomed in FY19,” says Seet.

As for Frencken, its share price has exceeded the analyst’s target price and he is now waiting for an update on the company’s key customer before reviewing estimates and target price.

Frencken’s management has also remained bullish on its outlook, as it stands to benefit from its key customer’s new product in the industrial automation segment for FY20, despite expecting a drop for 1Q20.

With more new projects in the medical and consumer and automotive fronts ahead, Fu Yu is expected to see its positive growth momentum continue from FY21 onwards. Although the company experienced a blip in FY20 due to the Covid-19 pandemic, Fu Yu is still expected to weather the storm, thanks to its robust net cash and balance sheet.

“Also, it should still be able to reward its investors with attractive dividends, despite a temporary drop in profits this year. Fu Yu is also an attractive target for privatisation or acquisition,” says Seet.

As at 2.35pm, shares in Avi-Tech are trading at 42 cents; Frencken at 92 cents and Fu Yu at 24 cents.

Friday, July 3, 2020

50年股海经验终极方案 冷眼授招创富保富
















而保富方案PRC则是:赚幅(Profit Margin)、平均投资回酬率(ROE)及现金流(Cash Flow)。



























Tuesday, June 30, 2020

[转贴] 正齐科技 MI – 企业分享会 - RH Research

正齐科技 MI – 企业分享会
  • Batu Kawan厂房已准备就绪,不过因为疫情的关系,启动计划从原本的Q1延迟至Q2。于去年到期的新兴工业地位 (Pioneer Status) 已获得延长5年至2024年1月,也就是说在期间可享有税收减免。
  • 大约90%的销售来自出口市场,其中5位客户的贡献占整体收入的60%左右。其外国客户群包括ASE、Amkor、Intel、Qualcomm、Broadcom、Qorvo等等,而本地部分客户群则是Inari、Carsem和Unisem。
  • 在疫情期间,其业务在3月处于完全停工的状态,而且还不能运输。4月逐渐恢复至25-50%,直到5月才100%复工。无法出国与客户谈生意是现阶段的最主要问题,需要一段时间才能逐渐将整体效率恢复到正常水平。
  • “不确定性”是半导体行业最担心的因素。中美贸易战的升温导致很多企业无法提供指引,主要因为当前的局势随时可出现转变。简短而言就是大家对未来展望没有任何想法,在资本开销方面无法作出决定。
  • 之前已下单的客户不敢取消,因为如果之后重新下单,需要再等上一段时间。然而,下半年的订单透明度暂时还很疲弱。
  • 其业务的未来前景将由5大趋势驱动,分别是5G、物联网、高效计算和人工智能。举个例子,旗下AI系列的机器主要用于处理渺小和复杂的芯片,如TSMC的7nm或者更小的芯片。今年9月将在台湾展览会上推广。
  • 至于Autobotics业务,整体贡献仍然非常小,现阶段还处于研发当中。可以专注的领域非常广,其中包括半导体、汽车、智能城市、医疗等等,因此认为其贡献很大可能将在未来超越现有业务,不过或许需要10年或以上。
  • 未来的趋势工业4.0将需要很高级的自动设备,以减少劳工数量。以旗下Kobot系列为例,以往2台机器需要1位员工来操作,不过在完成安装后,1位员工即可操作6台机器。
  • 虽然不能100%确保技术的知识产权不会被第三方抄袭,但是并未过度担心,因为在保护私隐方面已做得充足。即使同行拉拢内部工程师跳槽,也仅能得到一小部分而已。
  • 回顾2013年,当时是首家推出旋转式 (Rotary) 分拣机器的企业。虽然竞争对手之后也研发相同的机器,但是已处于落后的位置。如果想要一直处于领先地位,就必须以全新的技术来研发新产品,不能追随别人的步伐。



[转贴] 5分钟看懂AEONCR(5139) Q1 2021季报 & 股东大会详情 - ~ 第一天




Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31 May 2020


Financial Year End 28 Feb 2021
Quarter 1 Qtr
Quarterly report for the financial period ended 31 May 2020
The figures have not been audited


ACSM - Quarterly Results for the First Quarter ended 31.05.2020.pdf
581.8 kB

Default Currency
Other Currency
Currency: Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)

31 May 2020



31 May 2020
31 May 2019
31 May 2020
31 May 2019

1 Revenue
2 Profit/(loss) before tax
3 Profit/(loss) for the period
4 Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent
5 Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit)
6 Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit)

7 Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$)


这张图就清晰得多,从该股的营业额来看,我们不难发现其实是有在成长的,但是罪魁祸首OPERATION EXPENSES,居然大涨了25多%左右,这个就是他业绩下跌的主要原因,所以当支出突然那么高的情况底下,净利肯定萎缩的,而且随着生意做得更大,我们留意到他的利息支出上是大增了22%左右的,但是这个问题不大,羊毛出在羊身上,利息支出多,生意收入自然多的,只是被他的EXPENSES拖垮,导致他的净利才会大力萎缩。其实他过去几个季度都是一样的情况,唯一要明白的是,为何支出会大增?其实上几个季度我们也弄懂了,他主要是财报准则改变,所以impairment增加了而已,而这个季度恐怕就是因为MCO而有让顾客暂延还款所致,所以等下我们找找看数据变化如何。。






-AEONCR 2020财政年,获得22.7%的总交易和借贷(T & F)成长。主要的成长业务为 Auto Financing (32.2%),信用卡(25.6%),电单车借贷 (25.4%)和objective Financing(20.5%)。而在2021财政年,碍于COVID的影响,所以公司会尽可能的协助顾客,从而让公司可以不影响借贷组合素质的前提下前进。





-公司的e wallet跟市场上的对手走不一样的路线,公司主要定位于retail layalty e-wallet,受惠于aeon和aeonbig强劲的品牌和市场。未来也会透过这个wallet提供一些借贷上的服务,包括提供pre approval limit给符合资格的顾客。

-目前公司的政策专注在让前aeon 会员转变成AEON MEMBER PLUS VISA CARD的顾客,也鼓励顾客下载公司的AEON WALLET,公司也从这些交易中赚取费用,而且这些顾客的资料让公司可以更准确的提供更多顾客需要的借贷或服务,从而增长公司的业绩。


-公司接下来会专注在数码化所有的程序和效率,包括robotic process,未来如果有机会,公司也可能会参与电子/虚拟银行的竞标。


AEONCR 5139 RM9.45 (29-6-2020)
PE : 10.26+-
DY : 3.84%+-
ROE : 15.33%+-
从公司上面的价格图表来说,其实真的会吓一跳,因为几年下来的涨幅,在短短1年里面,就全部回吐了,但是这个也没办法,毕竟近期COVID的缘故,公司的生意真的很难做,生意是做得更大,但是净利却变少,虽然目前这些账目还没变成呆账,但是公司已经做了impairment,就看最后能否收得回,如果收得回,那么未来的业绩就靠谱了,但是还是有赌博的风险了,就要继续观察公司接下来的账目会怎么做了,不过最严峻的一期业绩(MCO期间)已经出炉,也符合了预期,那么接下来只要不太弱,都会慢慢恢复,相信都是好的。而目前来说,股价已经开始有吸引力了,只不过就看我们自己是否要承受风险了,毕竟目前还不明朗,财有这样的价格,如果未来明朗了业绩是真的恢复,那么就没这样的价格了,反之如果未来业绩是往更糟糕的方向进发,自然价格会更糟糕,所以我才说有赌博的风险。而个人而言,目前我持票是不少的,所以没有冲动让我继续增持,我会继续守着,等待复苏就好。除非该股的股息更高,或者开始复苏,才会考虑是否增持。目前而言我个人比较倾向与高息股。而这只股来说,如果真的要买,个人认为暂时是有一定的价值的,但是不宜ALL IN,分批慢慢累积或许是一个不错的选择,当然,就看自己是要承受风险,还是等一切明朗化后买更贵了,投资本来就是GIVE AND TAKE的~。~


BY ~ 第一天

Panasonic - Weaker Demand Anticipated


  • FY20 earnings below expectation
  • FY20 normalised net profit was marginally higher at RM111.2m
  • 4QFY20 normalised earnings dipped by 1.4%yoy to RM25.2m
  • FY21F/FY22F earnings revised in anticipation of potentially weaker demand ahead
  • Maintain NEUTRAL with a revised TP of RM29.62

FY20 earnings below expectation as normalised net profit of RM111.2m made up 93% of our full year estimates but was largely within consensus’ forecast at 104%. We have excluded foreign exchange gain from our normalised PAT. A dividend of 183.0sen was declared, falling short of the 230.0sen we had anticipated.

FY20 normalised net profit was marginally higher at RM111.2m as revenue fell by 6.7%yoy to RM1052.0m. Panasonic Manufacturing Malaysia Bhd (Panasonic)’s net profit was largely unchanged albeit a dip in revenue mainly due to lower raw material cost and lower advertising and promotional costs. For the full year fan products and others saw PBT dropped by 15.1%yoy to RM67.3m although home appliances PBT rose 12.0%yoy to RM67.1m. Sales in Malaysia declined by 11.0%yoy to RM426.6m while it improved in Asia ex Malaysia and Japan by 2.0%yoy to RM356.5m.

4QFY20 normalised earnings dipped by 1.4%yoy to RM25.2m as revenue fell by 28.9%yoy to RM204.7m. Revenue fell due to weaker demand from home appliances (-12.4%yoy) and fan products (- 6.3%yoy). Geographically, local and exports to Asia ex Japan and Malaysia declined by 15.4% and 10.2% respectively. Net profit did not decline as sharply as revenue due to lower raw material cost and lower advertising and promotional expenses.

FY21F/FY22F earnings revised in anticipation of potentially weaker demand ahead. As we expect consumer sentiment to remain cautious amid the pandemic and in view of lockdowns that occurred in the various countries that Panasonic exports to, we think that sales may be sluggish in 1QFY21. Moreover, its factory has halted operations during the Movement Control Order (MCO). As such, we revise our FY21F and FY22F earnings forecasts downwards by -30.8% and -14.2% respectively. Cushioning the drop in sales will be lower raw material costs.

Target price. Our target price is revised to RM29.62 (previously RM30.66) which is based on pegging the FY22F EPS of RM2.11 per share to PER of 14.0x. The assigned PER multiple, which is the group’s three year average historical PER, is unchanged.

Source: MIDF Research - 30 Jun 2020

Hartalega - PE to normalize to 15 after accounting for full year explosive results. TP upgraded to RM24.80.

Author: PelhamBlackFund | Publish date: Wed, 24 Jun 2020, 12:43 AM

Hartalega's FY21 full year earnings is expected to leapfrog to RM2.8bil or EPS of RM0.83/share.

Superior margin ahead of its peers

TopGlove's profit is expected to jump by 5% for every 1% hike in ASP. Hartalega's profit is expected to jump 11% for every 1% hike in ASP. This is due to extreme efficiencies at NGC plant compared to its peers. Hartalega's plant are almost 100% automated.

ASP hike of 35% - 40% for June

Net profit to jump 350% - 400% from June and onwards. Assuming a 35% hike in ASP, Harta's net profit is expected to jump by 385%. Net profit for next quarter is expected to be between RM450mil - RM600mil.

Largest base in US

Harta's base in US is 55%. Compared to its peers, its the largest.

Antimicrobial glove catalyst

Game changer for Harta. No other big 4 glove companies is able to produce antimicrobial glove at a mass scale. This gloves has already been sold in Europe. Once FDA is obtain by year end, Harta is expected to command another premium to its share price.

Director acquisition of shares

Compared to its peers, only Harta's directors/founders have been acquiring shares at high prices. This is a strong sign that the management has absolute confidence in the company.


Harta is undervalued compared to its peers at current valuation of 15x FY21 PE. Ascribe a 30x FY21 PE to arrive at RM24.80.

We believe Harta fully deserves to be the largest market cap company in Malaysia.

Monday, June 29, 2020





投資要「趁勢」 孤芳自賞只宜小注











融創潤地分拆物管 年底料再熱鬧起來



[蔡金強 奧陸之聲]

潘啓才:凱升似想供乾 值得期待



周焯華重金買來 應有後着








[潘啓才 通天財技]

Saturday, June 27, 2020










目前,手套公司多已腾出部份产能以攫取现货订单需求,这些现货订单的价格往往比正常订单价格高出至少2至3倍。艾芬黄氏的首选手套股为顶级手套(T O P G L O V,7113,主板医疗保健组)及贺特佳(HARTA,5168,主板医疗保健组)。









[转贴] 浅谈手套股 - RH Research







首先是英科医疗,近期在中国股市上演超过4倍的疯狂涨势。目前年产能为190亿左右。未来计划在各省打造4个生产基地,累积扩充的产能高达500多亿。也就是说在完成计划后,其产能几乎和现在的Top Glove一样。


以上的计划看似非常有雄心,而且具有很大的威胁,不过实际冲击预计不大。要扩充如此多的产能除了需要庞大的资金,也需要耗上至少8-10年才能建成。Top Glove用了30年时间才有今天的规模,难道他们仅需要几年就达成?

另一方面,英科和蓝帆的主要产品是PVC手套 (Vinyl) ,占组合的近80%。两者未来的扩充核心也是投放在PVC手套上,相信是因为在丁晴手套的竞争上完全没有优势。


至于需求,全球手套在2005-2019年期间录得大约8%的复合增长率。随着全球卫生意识得到结构性提升,加上肺炎疫情对全球影响程度大大超出SARS,Top Glove预测手套正常的需求增速将从以往的8-10%增至12-15%。

2019年的全球手套需求为2,600亿左右,而2020年则预测为3,100亿左右。全球5大手套业者的总产能为大约1,900亿,占市场份额的60%。以他们明年平均20%的产能扩充速度,暂时还不成问题, 毕竟订单已经排到2021下半年。


暴利税 Windfall Tax



假设有一天手套价格跌至非常烂,政府会出手支援吗?答案是不会。那么基本上现在就没有权力和资格向手套业者征收暴利税。Top Glove也出面澄清,政府官员至今没有上门商讨相关事宜。







先谈谈那对在控管令期间 爆红的印籍夫妇吧!

Sugu Pavithra 是他们在YouTube 频道的名称,是太太S Pavithra 和先生M Sugu 的合体。


今年的一月份,Pavithra 就开始尝试在YouTube 教烹饪课,都是一些马来西亚人熟悉的印度菜肴。

她的丈夫Sugu全程用手机录像,完全没有其他摄影器材加持,而Pavithra的烹饪厨具都是她平时做饭惯用的,我们认为普通不过、理所当然的微波炉或压力锅,对他们来说却是遥不可及的奢侈品,所以Pavithra 烹饪出来的食物,绝对原汁原味、货真价实!

在一位也是YouTuber 友人的指导下,她的第一个烹饪视频点击率就达到了140万人,而他们在YouTube 的订阅量和追随者迅速达到1万人,他们很快就成为YouTube 生意伙伴关系。


这对年轻YouTuber 的订阅量每天都快速增长,尤其是控管令期间经马新社专题报道之后,他们的订阅人数从16万人,突然暴增至44万人。

6 月初首相在他最新一轮的经济刺激方案提起了Sugu Pavithra这个励志故事,又再一次让他们的订阅人数飙升至65万人!


我上YouTube 浏览了他们的最新视频,为了全职照顾两位年幼的孩子和更好地配合妻子的事业,Sugu已经辞去了他原来的工作。

他们用YouTube 赚来的钱购买了新的房子,让人不可思议的是,他们把搬家和摆设家具诸如此类的小事全程录影并搬上网,点击视频人数竟然高达数十万计!

Add caption
Pavithra 在YouTube 教烹饪课,她的丈夫Sugu全程用手机录像,完全没有其他摄影器材加持。


Sugu Pavithra 为什么瞬间爆红?


1. 疫情肆虐期间人心惶惶,很多人都在为工作朝不保夕而担忧。Sugu Pavithra 的成功让他们仿佛在黑暗的尽头看到曙光!

2. Pavithra 出生低微,受教育程度不高,还能操流利的马来语,让B40低收入群体更有代入感:成功并不是那么遥不可及,也未必需要高学历和高人脉,只要努力,呆在家里做自己喜欢的事,也能有出头天!

3. 媒体的推波助澜和人们对毫不起眼的小人物的好奇,推高了点击率!





我几年前开始学习用面薄做广告的时候,导师就和我提及Neelofa 这号人物。

事隔多年,我上网查了一下她的资料,天啊!她的Instagram 粉丝竟然高达730万人!而面薄粉丝也有近200万人。


Neelofa 非常年轻,来自吉兰丹,今年只有31 岁。2010年赢得了某杂志美后就开始进入演艺圈,之后一路平步青云走到现在。

她非常聪明,小小年纪就懂得利用自己的名气赚钱。她的网卖非常成功,任何产品只要贴上Neelofa 肯定秒杀。

她的阿拉伯长裙和头巾,卖到全世界37个国家,包括澳洲、英国和欧洲。2017年福布斯遴选她为亚洲30 岁以下最有影响力人士之一!



年轻、漂亮、聪明、有商业敏锐度,这是Neelofa 给所有认识她的人的深刻印象。

无独有偶,我在网上搜寻到的马来男网红,也是有730万的Instagram 粉丝,面薄总数也有近200万人,他是马来社会知名度蛮高的艺人兼网红之一Zizan Razak。

Zizan 也很年轻,今年才37 岁,2007年出道,当年赢得搞笑大王(Raja Lawak)比赛第二名,就开始进入演艺圈至今。

Zizan Razak 倒没有Neelofa 那么有商业头脑和野心,但他拍片和代言产品也足够让他丰衣足食,毫无意外成为我国名副其实最富有谐星!























她当过侍应,后来为了更好的收入学会了当夜店DJ 。




























Friday, June 26, 2020


Author: Adi_Investor | Publish date: Fri, 26 Jun 2020, 4:22 PM

MI TECHNOVATION (MI, 5286),前身为Mi Equipment Holdings Bhd,是一家马来西亚公司,从事具有测试功能的晶圆级芯片级封装(WLCSP)分选机的设计,开发和制造。该公司的产品包括WLCSP芯片分选机,晶圆对晶圆分选机和WLCSP后锯最终测试机。它向半导体行业提供产品。本公司还提供维修服务,技术支持和其他售后服务。

本人對半導體認識有限,所以無法對 MI TECHNOVATION 競爭和營運做一個深度分析。




加上高 Revenue 和 Net Income 成長,似乎是完美。

但仔細看 EPS ,成長率則少很多,特別和2017年對比卻是退步。

原因就在於 Diluted Weighted Average Shares,從365.57增加到748.07,稀釋了股東權益。


如果公司前景真的俱佳,對供股還可以忍受,MI TECHNOVATION 符合此條件嗎?



我們看 MI TECHNOVATION 的現金流量表,因為投資資本大,所以都是負自由現金流。

發展初期負自由現金流我可以接受,但我不能接受低於 Net Income 的 Operating Cash。

Operating Cash 不理想的高成長率,是不可信的。


这一套三本投资书胜过你看外面20本,因为外面的投资书是东说一点,西说一点,我是把精华整理归纳,以Step by Step方法铺陈,化繁為簡,全面講解投資分析法。












發表報告的大行以前有一位外籍董事話買樓三大原則,就是Location、Location、Location(地點) ,一向被視為投資物業的金科玉律。我講出來大家或者會不相信,原來寫物業報告亦要講Location、Location、Location ,三個Location的意思分別是優質地區、優質大廈、優質樓層,中環甲級寫字樓代表了兩個非常好的Location,第三個Location就是講樓層,當然是愈高愈好,而且愈高樓層的空置率愈低。


[湯文亮 敢說反話]

譚新強:Don't fight the Fed, until......


【明報專訊】華爾街有句被視為金科玉律的投資守則:「Don't fight the Fed」,意思是如果美國聯儲局決定「放水」,採取寬鬆貨幣政策,哪管經濟環境和企業盈利有多差,投資者都千萬不可逆勢而行,做空股市。



聯儲3月底重啟QE 美股與現實脫節

我當然明白WFH大趨勢對Amazon、微軟、facebook和Alphabet等科技龍頭幫助很大,如虎添翼。最大的5家Big Tech,已佔了標指的20%。但其餘80%又如何?除了「印鈔」外,怎樣解釋波音、各航空、郵輪公司超過1倍的反彈?連已破了產的Hertz都反彈了5倍。

無限QE的另一個受害者,可說是Alex Kearns,是Robinhood無佣金交易平台的客人。他是個20歲無收入的學生,但Robinhood竟給他100萬美元的借貸額度。他似乎用來炒期權,有一天他發現戶口輸了70多萬美元,感到絕望,就選擇了自殺,非常可惜和愚蠢。近乎黑色幽默,更可悲的傳聞是他其實沒有輸掉那麼多錢,只是看不懂Robinhood的每天倉位報告而已!Robinhood的KYC和風控,當然有問題,但如果沒有無限QE,哪有可能100萬美元信貸會流到一個20歲學生手中?

標指能否如著名策略師Tom Lee預測,在初夏即將創新高,誰也不知道,只可拭目以待。巴菲特在股市底部沽清了所有航空股,反被總統特朗普譏笑。據一位美國資深family office投資者說,今次大反彈令最有經驗的對冲基金經理大跌眼鏡,幾乎沒有年過45歲的賺到錢(嘻嘻,不知道我那麼年青)!

我當然贊同Don't fight the Fed,但天生多慮,會加個until......:

1. 美國超過一半州份的疫情正在上升,每日宗數重上3萬以上。多個大州如加州和Florida都是熱點,Arizona和Texas等,醫院容量更將在未來數天爆滿!死亡滯後,在不久將來,每日死亡人數必將反彈。這就是反民主制度選出來的特朗普自私無能領導下的惡果,美國變成反科學、反事實、反理性,連口罩都變成政治部落圖騰!


疫症宗數確在飈升,但近日感染者平均較年輕,且最少一部分人有戴口罩,即使受感染,接觸到的viral load較輕,所以死亡率應該較低。加上美國醫生多了經驗,終於明白過早使用ventilator,弊多於利。FDA終於禁用頗危險的HCQ,改用較有效的Dexamethasone和Remdesivir等藥。最重要的是投資者仍樂意相信最快在年底就將成功研究出有效疫苗,雖然不少專家仍有保留。即使成功,疫苗的有效率多高(可能只有50%至60%),有效期多長(可能只有3至6個月),價錢和如何大量生產數十億劑等問題,更加暫時沒人理會。

如果經濟重開萬一受阻,聯儲局又是否江郎「財」盡?當然不是,隨便都可數出尚未使出的三招:一、YCC(yield curve control),短期內將公布細節,估計類似日本央行的10年債零利率目標政策(QE也是日本發明),但可能焦點放在較短的5年期美國債。二、負利率,這一招歐洲較常用,聯儲局仍非常抗拒。三、直接購買股票ETF,甚至個股。聯儲局已開始直接買個別企債,離股票只一步之遙。日央行早已直接購入日股ETF。

2. BLM會否演變成一場美式文化大革命?近日示威變回大致和平,不少各州市警察甚至以「taking a knee」(單膝跪),為警暴作象徵式道歉,但當然無礙警察殺害黑人事件仍不斷發生。

大規模暴亂會否再現?絕對有可能,只等待適合的導火線。特朗普言行仍緊擁抱着輸了內戰的南部Lost Cause,近日警告企圖拉倒另一早期擁有黑奴和曾跟美洲原住民打仗的總統Andrew Jackson銅像的示威者,任何毀壞公眾紀念碑者,可被監禁10年,且講明執法絕不手軟!醜陋的事實是美國最早的10位總統,8位都曾擁有黑奴!如特朗普繼續煽動種族衝突,事情會否一發不可收拾,實在難講。假如他成功連任,但再次以大比數輸掉普選,BLM支持者會否願意再忍氣吞聲接受?上次白宮門前衝擊已非常危險,如下次再發生,民眾會否更暴力?而美國軍、警又將如何處理?如特朗普下令使用大量武力,甚至開槍,警察、國民自衛隊和正規軍隊的反應又如何?早前參謀長聯席會議主席General Milley的表態必令總統特朗普非常不安,且反常敢怒不敢言。




3. 無限QE和UBI,證明Andrew Yang是對的,更非常受巿場歡迎,這是否神話中的免費午餐?

低利率「好處」多 最重要增政府負債能力


利率低,股、債的fair value當然更高,所以毫無收入的Nikola,市值都可超過250億美元(可惜Nikola Tesla似乎沒有middle name,要不然最少值50億美元)。標指今年PE估計最少24倍,CAPE約29倍,只低於1999年科網泡沫爆破前水平。


縱拜登當選 難改Fed put

4. 近日美股高位震盪,部分歸咎於近日民調顯示拜登擴闊了領先優勢,市場憂慮如他當選,將逆轉特朗普的企業減稅。高盛估計加稅或將削減標指明年盈利超過10%。如要逐漸回歸至收支平衡,加稅是必須的;但以加稅為競選口號,是極難贏出的。再者,即使拜登勝出,任何加稅方案都需要兩院通過。華爾街開始擔心一次「blue sweep」,但我認為參議院留在共和黨的機會仍較高。

再者,即使拜登當選,也不代表他將改變自格林斯潘年代至今,30多年來聯儲局提供給巿場,風險不對稱的Fed put。此政策對投資者超好,但形成道德風險,因此全球經常出現各種資產泡沫。


5. QE、YCC、MMT和UBI等堂皇名詞,某程度上都只欺騙大家的掩眼法。種種手段的最重要支撐仍是全世界對美元的無比信心,這就是法國前總統Giscard d'Estaing所指的美元「exorbitant privilege」(高昂專權)!只要所有人有信心,美國就可隨意印鈔、政府可長期入不敷支,貿易長期逆差。美元霸權是接近絕對的,全球超過60%貨幣儲備是美元,全球外匯交易,超過90%其中一邊為美元!美元有何危機?






這亦不等如美元馬上失去所有人信心,停止使用,或匯率暴跌。但這過程中,美元必逐漸失去它的高昂專權,聯儲局的QE和YCC等政策的自由度和有效性,將慢慢感到掣肘,可能導致Fed put的威力減弱。

所以Don't fight the Fed, until......

[譚新強 中環新譚]

Thursday, June 25, 2020

Acquisition of Wave Money a positive for Yoma Strategic Holdings, say analysts

Broker's Calls
Felicia Tan 25/06/2020, 3:19pm
SINGAPORE (June 25): Analysts are in favour of Yoma Strategic Holdings raising its effective stake in Digital Money Myanmar Limited (Wave Money).

The company announced on Wednesday that it will be acquiring Telenor Group’s 51% stake in Wave Money for US$76.5 million (S$106.4 million), and will raise funds from a consortium of investors led by Yoma Strategic.

See: Yoma Strategic to become largest controlling shareholder in Myanmar's Wave Money for total of $141.5 mil

DBS analysts Rachel Tan and Derek Tan have maintained their “buy” calls on the conglomerate, with a target price of 50 cents.

“While the next part of the journey may be rocky with increased competition, we believe Wave Money’s dominant position in Myanmar and the synergistic opportunities that both Yoma Strategic and Ant Financial can provide will give Wave Money a firm platform as it expands into a super app,” they write in a note dated June 24.

“We believe there will be synergies and cross business collaboration with Yoma Strategic’s current business, especially in fleet leasing, consumer (digital payments) and real estate services that could drive the digital wallet segment further. In addition, we believe there could be future synergistic opportunities as Ant Financial builds its e-commerce platform in Myanmar,” they add.

Phillip Capital analyst Tan Jie Hui feels the acquisition was made at an attractive price of US$76.5 million (S$106.4 million), which is a 20% discount to the brokerage’s projected valuation for Wave Money.

As such, she has maintained her “buy” call and target price of 46 cents.

“We increased the valuation of Yoma’s stake in Wave Money, offset by a 15% devaluation in Pun Hlaing Estate’s land bank due to the expectation of a weaker outlook in the premium property space. Property and financial services will constitute 68% and 19% of the valuation respectively,” she says.

Tan says the acquisition will have a positive impact on the conglomerate as it will give Wave Money a better strategic focus to grow its e-wallet business.

“Post Telenor’s exit, Wave will be more focused in its strategy to grow, underpinned by Ant’s strength in financial services and technology coupled with Yoma’s local presence and expertise,” she says.

Both brokerages agree that the unchanged key management team in Wave Money is also a plus.

As at 3.18pm, shares in Yoma Strategic Holdings were changing hands 2 cents higher, or 6.7% up, at 32 cents.

Wednesday, June 24, 2020

Analysts mixed on Mapletree Industrial Trust’s data centre acquisition in US

Broker's Calls
Felicia Tan 24/06/2020, 4:43pm

SINGAPORE (June 24): Analysts are mixed on their outlook for Mapletree Industrial Trust (MINT) following the REIT’s Wednesday announcement that it will be acquiring the remaining 60% interest in data centres in the US at a purchase consideration of US$210.9 million (S$299.5 million).

See: Mapletree Industrial Trust to acquire remaining 60% interest in 14 data centres in US for $299.5 mil

The deal will further expose MINT’s exposure to the more resilient data centre segment, which will enable MINT to future-proof its portfolio for a more digital economy. The acquisition also exposes MINT to the US, the world’s largest data centre market.

CGS-CIMB Research has downgraded the stock to “hold” from “add” with a revised target price of $2.81 from its previous $2.66, on valuations.

CGS-CIMB analysts Lock Mun Yee and Eing Kar Mei say they have raised MINT’s distribution per unit (DPU) estimates by 0.8-2.9% to factor in five months on contributions in FY21F, should the transaction be completed by the end of 3Q20. Lock and Eing have also taken into account MINT’s private placement, which will issue of 128.1 million new units.

See also: Mapletree Industrial Trust launches private placement to raise $350 mil to fund acquisition of data centres, and Mapletree Industrial Trust's private placement over-subscribed, to raise total of $410 mil

“While we like this accretive acquisition, MINT’s share price has appreciated by c.15% since end-Apr and the stock is currently trading at c.4.3% FY21F DPU yield, above its +1 s.d. 7-year yield band,” they write in a note dated June 23.

Maybank Kim Eng analyst Chua Su Tye believes the acquisition should strengthen MINT’s footprint in the US’s top 15 data centre markets.

“We continue to expect strong demand growth for data centre assets globally with rising operational needs,” he says in a Wednesday note.

“COVID-19 has likely accelerated the pace of cloud adoption from the increased usage of remote working, video streaming and online gaming, with higher data traffic needs bolstering leasing demand,” he adds.

As such, Chua has maintained his “buy” call with an unchanged target price of $2.95 for the stock.

“Valuations will continue to be supported by its positive growth fundamentals and more resilient portfolio, as DPU visibility has been further strengthened by its rising hi-tech asset investments and overseas diversification. These and $1.6-2.3 billion in debt headroom, could support other DPU-accretive deals,” he says.

Chua says the brokerage will revise estimates following the deal closure, which is expected to be completed by September this year.

As at 4.42pm, units in Mapletree Industrial Trust (MINT) are changing hands 11 cents higher, or 3.9% up, at $2.95.

Mapletree Industrial Trust to acquire remaining 60% interest in 14 data centres in US for $299.5 mil M&A

Felicia Tan 23/06/2020, 8:41am

SINGAPORE (June 23): The manager of Mapletree Industrial Trust (MINT) announced that it will be acquiring the remaining 60% interest in the 14 data centres in the US currently held by Mapletree Redwood Data Centre Trust (MRDCT) at a purchase consideration of US$210.9 million (S$299.5 million).

The agreement was signed by MINT’s trustee, DBS Trustee Limited on Tuesday.

The agreed property value of the data centres on a 60% basis is some US$494.0 million (S$701.5 million).

MINT currently holds a 40% interest in MRDCT with Mapletree DC Ventures, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Mapletree Investments Pte Ltd (MIPL) holding the remaining 60% interest.

Upon completion of the proposed acquisition, MINT will hold a 100% interest in the 14 data centres. Its assets under management will also increase to $6.6 billion from $5.9 billion as at March 31.

According to MINT, the proposed acquisition is in line with the manager’s strategy to grow the hi-tech buildings segment.

It is also expected to increase MINT’s data centres segment to 39.0% from 31.6% as at March 31, increasing the trust’s exposure to a resilient asset class with growth opportunities.

Data centres proved to be a resilient asset class during the Covid-19 pandemic, as it was considered essential in North America, and remained open when the country was in lockdown.

The hi-tech buildings segment will account for some 59.9%, from 55.0% as at March 31.

All 14 data centres are 97.4% leased to 15 tenants as at March 31. Tenants include Fortune Global 500 corporations, and companies listed on the NYSE and Nasdaq.

The MRDCT Portfolio has a weighted average lease to expiry of about 4.6 years, with about 20% of the leases expiring within the next three years. About 97.8% of the MRDCT Portfolio have annual rental escalations of 2% and above.

The 14 data centres are situated on freehold land that is strategically located in established data centre markets across the US. The centres come with a net lettable area (NLA) of some 2.3 million sq ft.

Following the completion of the proposed acquisition, MINT’s freehold properties will increase to 51.8% (by land area) from an estimate of 37.9% as at March 31.

The total acquisition outlay comes up to some US$218.0 million (S$309.6 million).

The manager of MINT says it intends to finance the total acquisition outlay through an equity fund raising and the issuance of the acquisition fee in units.

See: Mapletree Industrial Trust launches private placement to raise $350 mil to fund acquisition of data centres

The agreed property value of the MRDCT Portfolio of US$823.3 million (S$1.17 billion) represents a discount of 0.7% to the independent valuation by Newmark Knight Frank Valuation & Advisory, LLC and in line with the independent valuation by Cushman & Wakefield Western.

Both companies have valued the portfolio at US$828.7 million (S$1.18 billion) and US$823.3 million (S$1.17 billion) respectively.

“The Proposed Acquisition increases our exposure to the resilient data centre segment and deepens our presence in the United States,” says Tham Kuo Wei, CEO of the manager.

“The United States is the largest and most established data centre market in the world. It offers attractive growth prospects and is well supported by favourable supply-demand dynamics. The Proposed Acquisition will improve MIT’s income stability with the increased freehold land component and long leases with annual rental escalations,” he adds.

Units in Mapletree Industrial Trust closed flat at $2.84 on Monday.

These companies are beneficiaries of the Covid-19 pandemic

Broker's Calls
Samantha Chiew 23/06/2020, 4:09pm

SINGAPORE (June 23): CGS-CIMB Research is rating the medical equipment and services industry “overweight” amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

In a Monday report, lead analyst Ong Khang Chuen says, “As the world grapples with Covid-19, it faces a new normal until an effective and widely-available vaccine or treatment is developed, in our view. Even as nations emerge from Covid-19 lockdown, we believe there is still a need for more testing kits and personal protection equipment (PPE) to ensure a safe reopening.”

According to studies by the World Health Organization (WHO), people with coronavirus are most infectious at the point when they first begin to feel unwell, which has made it particularly challenging to control the spread of the disease.

Based on analysis of past pandemics and strategies used by countries to curb the spread of Covid-19, the analyst believes that the world will have to face a new normal until an effective and widely available vaccine or treatment for Covid-19 is developed, which he believes will be in 2021.

“We see potential for resurgence in Covid-19 cases, as countries adopt varying approaches to tackling the pandemic. Some countries that have eased lockdown measures and reopened their economies (such as China and South Korea) are seeing a renewed rise in the number of Covid-19 cases, prompting fears of a potential second wave,” Ong notes.

Although several countries are starting to emerge from lockdown, diagnostic testing and medical supplies remain high in demand. To ensure a safe reopening, there is a need for reliable data to show that the rate of infection is decreasing to manageable levels, and also to ensure that there is sufficient capacity to avoid future infection peaks overwhelming healthcare capacity.

In Singapore alone, Ong estimates the addressable market potential across the value chain of diagnostic testing to come up to $3.9 billion. Meanwhile, Malaysian Rubber Glove Manufacturers Association (MARGMA) estimates global demand for rubber gloves to reach 345 billion gloves in 2020, representing a 16% y-o-y increase.

With that, Ong sees UG Healthcare and Riverstone as direct proxies to the pandemic, while other beneficiaries include IHH Healthcare, Raffles Medical and Venture Corp.

UG Healthcare is a preferred pick with an “add” call and a target price of $1.36. UG Healthcare's undemanding valuation of 8.7 times 2021F price-to-earnings ratio and manufacturing-cum-distribution model allows it to garner stronger ASP upside potential compared to its peers given the current strong surge in glove demand.

Meanwhile, other Singapore listed companies within the value chain of medical testing and PPE include Biolidics, Q&M Dental, Medtecs and Sri Trang.

UOB Kay Hian initiates coverage on Frencken Group at 'buy' on stable earnings

Broker's Calls
Felicia Tan 24/06/2020, 3:41pm
SINGAPORE (June 24): UOB Kay Hian has initiated coverage on Frencken Group with a “buy” call and target price of $1.15.

In a Tuesday report, analyst Clement Ho says he likes the high-tech component manufacturer for its stable earnings due to its diverse revenue stream, despite the temporary pandemic-induced slowdown, which has affected manufacturing plants around the world.

Despite expected lower sales in 2020, Ho forecasts the company’s operating margin to normalise above 11%, compared to the sub-9% region between 2014 and 2017. The higher margin is due to cost-cutting measures and efficiency improvements.

The analyst also expects a slight revenue contraction of 6.4% due to the worsening dynamics in the automobile industry, in spite of the healthy demand growth from the semiconductor business.

“A resumption of orders in the company’s analytical and industrial automation subdivisions is expected to lift 2021-22 top-lines by 8.7% and 9.5%, respectively,” he says.

Ho also sees further opportunities for the group to grow on positive technology sector trends.

“As a component supplier and provider of modular parts for companies in industries such as analytical & life sciences, healthcare and industrial automation, the group will benefit from higher demand for parts as the technology trends evolve towards mass consumption,” he says.

Frencken’s supportive balance sheet with a net cash value of $92.9 million will help the company weather volatile conditions.

“Past the volatile period, we believe Frencken will emerge with a leaner cost structure, which translates into greater operating leverage as revenue normalises. Shareholders should be rewarded with a consistent dividend payout of >30% of net income, which Frencken has made since its listing in May 2005,” he shares.

“Assuming a 30% payout ratio, 2020-21F DPS of S$0.0275 and S$0.029 would translate to yields of 3.2% and 3.4% respectively. Frencken currently trades at 9.4x 2020F PE and 4x EV/EBITDA,” he adds.

As at 3.39pm, shares in Frencken are changing hands 1.5 cents lower, or 1.7% down, at 88.5 cents.


Mtag Group Berhad (MTAG),今天我分析這支股票。



MTAG Group Berhad, an investment holding company, engages in the business of label and sticker printing, and customised converting services for various materials. The company was established in 1995 in Johor, Malaysia.

The subsidiaries of MTAG Group include Toyo Sho Industrial Products Sdn Bhd, Intag Industrial Supplies Sdn Bhd, and Intag Steel Hardware Sdn Bhd.


MTAG 財務如下:








雖然 MTAG 這幾年成長速度不錯,但不大可能維持。

我們看 MTAG 投资活动的现金,資本投資並不多,這意味未來成長空間也是有限




Tuesday, June 23, 2020

蔡金強:做大事惜身 見小利忘義



















[蔡金強 奧陸之聲]

Monday, June 22, 2020

JAKS: Cash Cow In The Making? - Bursa Dummy

Sunday, 21 June 2020

Readers who follow this blog long enough should know that I invested in Jaks before. I bought in Feb17 but sold all in Nov17.

I bought Jaks because of its Vietnam power plant venture. It is a 2 x 600MW coal fired thermal power plant in Hai Duong with a BOT of 25 years. Jaks owns 30% shares in the JV with CPECC of China, with an option to increase the shares to 40%.

At that time, I didn't know how to predict the profit to Jaks when the plants are ready and running. I just knew that Jaks will pocket 100% the USD454.5mil (~RM1.8 billion) EPC contract.

The reason I invested in Jaks back in 2017 was simply because of this EPCC. It started to register good profit from its construction of power plant in Vietnam. I predicted that such profit will continue to rise.

I was aware that Jaks was struggling a bit in its property development & investment arms but I didn't expect those issues to be dragged for so long.

Anyway I sold all the shares in Nov17 due to various reasons and rarely looked back at the stock.

Jak's share price swung wildly from RM1.80 to RM0.40 then went up to RM1.50, back to RM0.60 due to Covid-19 and around RM0.90 now after the announcement of rights issue.

A famous investor quickly became the largest shareholder and then exited completely, which contributed to the movement of the share price.

Now, the power plants are about to be ready in Q3 of 2020. Construction profit from Vietnam will stop but profit from sales of electricity to Vietnam government will start.

How much can Jaks profit from the sale of electricity?

I don't have any idea until I read the article posted by DK66 in i3investor.

The most reliable earnings guidance from Vinh Tan 1 power plant

What makes the most reliable earnings forecast ?

Peer comparison is the most reliable and convincing method for making earnings forecast if the subject exhibits the following characteristics;
high degree of earnings stability and foreseeability
high degree of resemblance in operating terms and conditions

The higher the similarity between the subjects in comparison, the higher the accuracy of forecast.

Peer comparison evaluation method alleviates the need for making excessive adjustments, assumptions and projections which in most cases would cloud the integrity of the results derived. It is often derived from actual operation of businesses under terms and conditions which may not be well understood or considered by the evaluators of other methodologies. In other words, it is the most realistic forecast of earnings potential of a company operating under the same geographical roof.

Vinh Tan 1 Thermal Power Plant

It is located in Vietnam's southern province of Binh Thuan.

The coal-fired power plant includes two 620-MW super-critical generating units which is 55% owned by China Southern Power Grid, and constructed by CEEC. CEEC is the holding company of CPECC who is Jaks' partner in JHDP.

Vinh Tan achieved full commercial operation on 27th November 2018 (COD).

Why compare to Vinh Tan 1 ?

Hai Duong, Vinh Tan 1, and Mong Duong II are all 100% foreign owned power plants in Vietnam operating under 25 years BOT contracts with capacity around 1,200 MW. All their BOT contracts, power purchase agreements, coal supply agreements were signed around 2012.

Vinh Tan 1 is an extremely close model for Jaks Hai Duong power plant because;
Both were awarded by the Vietnam Government around 2011
Both BOT contracts were signed with the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT).
Both are Coal fired power plants costing around US$1.8b
Both around 1,200MW capacity
Both are 100% foreign owned and operated by Chinese corporations
Both are adopting chinese technology
Both under 25 years Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) scheme
Both are guaranteed by Vietnam Government
Both Power purchase agreements signed with EVN
Both coal supply agreements signed with Vinacomin
Both under USD1.4b bank financing
Both under max 18 years loan tenure allowed by Vietnam government

Therefore, Vinh Tan 1 and JHDP should exhibit extreme high resemblance, if not identical.

Extracted from the 2019 Annual Report of China Southern Power Grid Corporation

Profit attributable to minorities interest

Vinh Tan 1 = 越南永新一期电力有限公司

This is the first full year operation results of Vinh Tan 1 since commercial operation in November 2018

Net profit after tax for 2019 = RMB1,071m = RM652m (RM/RMB conversion rate of 1.64)

Hence, potential earnings attributable to Jaks

@30% = RM652m x 30% = RM196m = EPS RM0.30

@40% = RM652m x 40% = RM261m = EPS RM0.40

Free Cash Flow

Annual free cash flow = RMB1,609m = RM981m (RM/RMB conversion rate of 1.64)

Hence, potential free cash flow attributable to Jaks

@30% = RM981m x 30% = RM294m = RM0.45 per share

@40% = RM981m x 40% = RM392m = RM0.60 per share

Dividend Distribution

You may noticed that there was no distribution of dividend in 2019 despite healthy cash flow of RM981m. This is due to the need to build cash reserves requirements for bank installments, working capital, maintenance, coal inventory, and statutory reserves. Aggressive distribution policy is expected once the cash reserve requirements are met as evident in the case of Mong Duong II, another similar plant in Vietnam. Below is the distribution pattern of Mong duong II since commercial operation in April 2015. The amounts are converted to Malaysian Ringgit at 4.35 to USD.

Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total
2016 9m 74m 122m 205m
2017 109m 113m 222m
2018 117m 78m 195m
2019 122m 196m 13m 331m

2018 dividend distribution was affected by the restructuring of long term project borrowings to reduce future interest costs. This has resulted in a one time restructuring cost of USD31m.

Note that first major dividend distribution by Mong Duong II started after 15 months of operation. By the end of 2019, Vinh Tan 1 has 13 months of operation. Hence, Vinh Tan 1 is expected to start dividend distribution in 2020.


Vinh tan 1 has only provided one full year operating results for evaluation in this article. There is no information to whether there were any material extraordinary gains of losses included in the operating results. Nevertheless, the nature of the business of Vinh Tan 1 whch is stable and foreseeable with majority of its earnings derived from capacity payments mitigated such concern. Moreover, my previous studies provides further assurance of the results of Vinh Tan 1.

Vinh Tan 1 classifies its power plant as concession asset instead of loan receivable as required by the new international accounting standard. Adoption of old accounting treatment has resulted in lower total earnings of Mong Duong II by USD203m since operation with its 2018 earnings increased by USD40m after adoption of new accounting standard. Since continuing with old accounting treatment does not lead to overstatement in earnings of Vinh Tan 1, the higher earnings effect to JHDP is disregarded in this article on prudent grounds.


Earnings guidance provided by Vinh Tan 1 is by far the most straight forward and reliable estimate of JHDP's future earnings potential. Most evaluation methods require assumptions or management guidance and complicated computations. It is difficult for those without sufficient knowledge of those methodologies to express confidence.

Vinh Tan 1's earnings represents results from actual operation of a similar power plant in Vietnam which is also managed by a Chinese corporation.

Vinh Tan 1's earnings jibes with my previous estimates derived using various valuation methods.

This article concludes that JHDP is expected to deliver EPS of between RM0.30 to RM0.40 to Jaks. At PE of 10 to 15 times, Jaks is worth between RM3 to RM6.

I hope this article has raised your level of confidence in Jaks significantly.

Thank you and happy investing !



I think this is an excellent and insightful prediction on Jaks's potential profit from the power plant. With potential EPS of 30sen, it's RM3 if PE is 10x!

Not only this, the predicted free cash flow of close to RM300mil a year to Jaks is just superb. This is possible due to the high depreciation and amortization of the power plant.

Even if the profit contribution from Vietnam is only half at RM100mil a year, the potential EPS of 15sen is still good compared to current share price of around 90sen.

After being delayed due to Covid-19, it looks like the power plant is preparing to deliver its first electricity in July. Commercial generation is expected in September for the first unit, while the second unit is scheduled to run in January 2021.

Anyway, this is not a buy or sell recommendation on Jaks. Nothing is without risks. So, invest at own risk.

Posted by Bursa Dummy

Technology stock rally could be more powerful than pandemic play

Lai Ying Yi/
June 22, 2020 09:00 am +08

KUALA LUMPUR (June 22): While many are impressed with the meteoric rise in glove makers’ share prices, there is also a rally in the technology sector that might be even more powerful and sustainable.

There is nothing that could stop the IT evolution, the deployment of 5G technologies is the way forward — it is exactly this belief that has attracted an influx of bargain hunters to the semiconductor-related stocks on Bursa Malaysia while others are shovelling money to the rubber glove counters.

The Bursa Technology Index having rebounded nearly 73% from 23.81 points to 41.15 points is evidence of the strong interest in the technology counters in the past three months.

UWC Bhd is among the star performers. Its share price has surged 235% from a low of RM1.10 in March to RM3.68 last Friday, followed by Aemulus Holdings Bhd, whose share price rocketed 231% from eight sen to 26.5 sen, and JHM Consolidation Bhd, which climbed 161% from 52.5 sen to RM1.37.

As Apple Inc on Wall Street hit a record high, so did some of the technology stocks on Bursa Malaysia. The list includes Greatech Technology Bhd, which soared 193% to RM4.05 from the low of RM1.41, while JF Technology Bhd has climbed some 114% to RM2.04 from 96 sen in mid-March.

Fund managers view that the stellar performance of technology stocks is justifiable, given the significance of the deployment of technologies in more devices that are seen to be developed in the age of Internet of Things (IoT). This will bode well for semiconductor-related players.

Asset management firm Areca Capital Sdn Bhd’s chief executive officer Danny Wong commented that “it doesn’t matter if the pandemic is here to stay or not, relevant technology stocks will only continue to see growth.”

He points out even before the health crisis unfolded, most Malaysian technology stocks were already being sought after as most of them were considered as growth stocks.

Wong explained that the prospect of automation upgrades in factories, especially the Industrial Revolution 4.0 and 5G development, has always been the tailwind to more usages for chips and sensors.

“In addition, the more tech savvy in development of commercial products ranging from automotive to healthcare devices have been a benign growth story to the technology companies.”

Meanwhile, Lim Tze Cheng, head of research at EquitiesTracker Holdings Bhd, highlights the acceleration in technology adoption against the backdrop of the Covid-19 crisis, as people adapts to the “new normal” working environment, where virtual meetings and cloud-based usages have increased at a never-before-seen fast pace.

“Post-lockdown, people will realise more of the importance of semiconductor especially for the relevance in powering 5G technology and data transmissions and this will be a global phenomenon,” said Lim, adding that the bullish sentiment on the US Nasdaq board has spilled over to Bursa Malaysia.

Meanwhile, Lim highlighted that resilient earnings performance has lent support to share prices as well.

As for the hard disk drive (HDD) makers, such as Dufu Technology Corp Bhd, which has gone up 149% from March’s low, JCY International Bhd, which rebounded 130%, and Notion VTec Bhd, up 126%, Lim points out that the increase in cloud-based storage is expected to drive up the demand for HDDs especially in data storage centres.

Over at JHM Consolidation (bounced 161%) and D&O Green Technologies Bhd (up 76%), as both companies cater more to the automotive industry, Lim noticed that better auto sales in China has painted a positive picture on their prospects. China, the world’s largest vehicle market, showed a second consecutive month of higher sales in May.

On JF Technology and Foundpac Group Bhd (rebounded 91%), which produces high-performance test sockets and equipment consumables relevant to 5G development, Lim believes that the main catalyst is the relaxation of the US government’s decisions to allow American companies to work with Huawei on setting standards for 5G networks.

Moving forward, Areca’s Wong believes there is still upside potential among some technology stocks, especially with those that have not reached their previous peaks as the semiconductor sector heads to its upcycle.

“I have always been positive on technology stocks, and more so now, I think they are more appealing due to the importance of one's daily life,” said Wong.

Sunday, June 21, 2020

【2019年封关】全年狂飙293% 阁代科技膺新股王


2019年全球经济充满变数,各大央行纷纷步入宽松周期,为潜在经济衰退预先做好准备,而本地也有知名公司如QSR品牌控股和Mr. DIY,选择展延上市计划。














Add caption



鸿达资源(PRESTAR,9873 ,主板工业股)是达新控股大股东,最早在2017年7月时,计划将子公司达新钢铁脱售给达新控股,借此分拆上市。



Friday, June 19, 2020

譚新強:Lost Cause與Lost Empire 特朗普約翰遜站歷史錯誤一方


【明報專訊】今天6月19日,美國稱為Juneteenth,是紀念黑奴在1865年終被全面解放的一天。這麼重要的紀念日,但竟然仍未列入全國法定假期。本來今天美國總統特朗普準備在Tulsa舉行疫情以來首場大型競選集會(白宮首席傳染病顧問Dr. Fauci反對無效),他對Juneteenth毫無認識,但被提醒後把集會改到明天。願意改期似乎是好事,但想清楚就知道未必是。如果集會主題之一是支持BLM,那麼在Juneteeth舉行非常適合,所以改期反而顯得此地無銀三百両。

近日在巨大政治壓力下,他簽署了所謂警察改革行政命令,將成立一個跟進警暴的資料庫,是否有效假以時日才知道。但他堅拒Defund(減少經費)警隊,重申Law and Order(法律與秩序)的重要性,反而建議增加維持治安預算案。其實我也非常同情警察的處境,當然警隊中也有個別種族主義者和慣性濫暴的「壞蘋果」,如犯了罪一視同仁,理當受罰。但相信大多數警察都是只想做好每天工作,然後每天安全回家的普通人。職責所在,他們必須執法維持治安,只有在迫不得已,才會使用武力。




如要解決種族歧視問題,其實亦要同時解決槍械,和更重要的貧窮、社會及家庭問題。1960年代的civil rights movement(人權運動)有助提升黑人權益和收入,到了1978年,黑人平均收入升至白人的59%,但可惜就此停頓下來,至今毫無寸進。黑人平均財產更僅約1萬美元,比白人少九成!大部分黑人出生於單親家庭,爸爸不負責任,媽媽需同時兼顧工作家庭,結果經常兩樣都做得不好,不少都需靠社會福利來過日子。貧民區教育水平不夠好,學生競爭力相對較弱,更難改善生活,結果一代又一代被困於這個貧窮惡夢循環。

今次BLM運動非常認真,最少將持續至11月大選,甚至更長,亦將對今次總統和國會選舉有頗大影響。近日特朗普被Fox新聞的女黑人主播Harris Faulkner訪問,驚人地竟說他對黑人權益的貢獻比任何總統都要大,甚至超過林肯!連支持他的Faulkner都不禁要插一句「But we are free!」但特朗普變本加厲,說「you know」(即眾所周知),林肯的「功過」,是個有很多不同看法的問題!這說法與白種人優先甚至3K黨人無異,簡直是對黑人和林肯的最大侮辱!亦完全顯露特朗普的病態自大狂嚴重程度!

怎可能連林肯的功過都質疑?其實這是一套故意誤導歷史的醜陋邪惡歪論(似曾相識),The Lost Cause的基本腔調。美國內戰在1865年完結後,南部經歷一段十多年的「Reconstruction」重建年代,由北方打勝仗的Republicans掌權(林肯是第一任共和黨總統),不少黑人亦被提拔為各州官員。南部白人對這些北方「Carpetbaggers」,到富庶南部撈油水的北方人極度反感(也似曾相識),尤其認為北軍General Sherman火燒Atlanta太過霸道,所以輸了仗仍一直不服氣。

到了大概1877年,北方人開始退出南部,南部的白人優先主義開始死灰復燃。他們逐漸在南部各州通過了一系列Jim Crow Laws,重建歧視黑人的種族隔離政策,包括不准通婚,分隔教育、交通、餐廳,甚至公共廁所都要分開,一直維持至1960年代,才被人權運動所推翻。


同時他們開始編織一個羅曼蒂克的美麗謊言,解釋南北內戰的主因並非真的為了正義,為解放黑奴。「真正」原因是人口較多,但較貧窮的北部,妒忌內戰前「Antebellum」年代,屬全世界最富庶的美國南部(請看電影《亂世佳人》Gone with the Wind),所以「人多蝦人少」的「無恥」手段,欺壓搶掠代表正義和「chivalry」(維護女士尊嚴的騎士精神)的南部。他們更歪曲憲法,堅持「state rights」,每個州份應有獨立自主權,包括奴隸政策,甚至脫離聯邦(更似曾相識?)。

這些Lost Cause鼓吹者更虛偽地解釋他們善待黑奴,幾乎把他們當作家人。更無恥的說法是把這些黑人從原始非洲帶到文明的美國簡直是善舉,黑人應該感激他們這些白人主人才對(亦有點似曾相識)。這個說法當然是卑鄙無恥,黑人男女小孩,在非洲如動物般被捕捉,妻離子散,只在運送途中已犧牲三成以上無辜生命。到了美國後,世世代代為奴為婢,被人隨意虐待、勞役、販賣、強姦,甚至謀殺!

當然有些主人對部分黑奴的待遇會稍為好些,主要分為House slaves(家奴)和Field slaves(田奴)。「乖一點」,斯文一點,可能樣貌娟好一點的就留在屋內工作,粗魯一點,身形健碩的就當然留在田中幹活。

早在1852年,白人女作家Harriet Beecher Stowe已出版《Uncle Tom's Cabin》,描述黑奴的慘况,是推動解放黑奴的最重要著作。書中主角Uncle Tom本來是個逆來順受的家奴,但仍是個有骨氣的人,最後因不願意供出兩個出走黑奴的資料,而被毒打至死。書內亦有其他矮化黑人女性「mammy」和黑人小孩「pickaninny」的名詞。Quaker Oats剛宣布將把老牌Aunt Jemima班㦸粉改名,正因形象取材於「mammy」。約翰遜更曾以「pickaninny」形容歡迎他的黑人學童!

Uncle Tom現象比斯德哥爾摩症候群麻煩

本來Uncle Tom是個正面人物,但到了後來,廣泛被黑人認為過於懦弱,奉承白人的不良示範,所以已演變成一個極具侮辱性的名稱。近年的一個經典演繹可說是Tarantino翻拍《黑殺令》(Django Unchained)電影中,Samuel Jackson飾演的Stephen Warren家奴角色,不止護主,更歧視同胞(似曾相識)。Uncle Tom現象在今天仍存在,特朗普也有少數黑人支持者,自稱保守有良好職業,且受過所謂高等教育,但歧視住在貧民窟的同胞,幫助主流社會欺壓他們。有心理學家認為Uncle Tom現象跟斯德哥爾摩症候群相似但更麻煩,因為受壓迫的時間遠比綁架長,超過百年,傷害更深。

近日The Lost Cause又成為熱門話題,因為BLM的冒起,同時近年的所謂民粹主義,包含不少種族主義,結果是愈來愈多類似2017年在Charlottesville因紀念內戰南部將領銅像而引起的衝突。現在BLM支持者要求拆除所有這類歌頌南部Lost Cause的銅像和紀念碑,Virginia已決定這樣做,但有些其他南部州份仍未決定。BLM支持者亦要求把十個以南方叛軍將領命名的軍事基地改名,國防部已答應考慮,但特朗普竟仍選擇站在歷史錯誤的那一邊,拒絕考慮改名。再說一次,把軍隊政治化是一件極危險的事,參謀長聯席會議主席General Milley和國防部長Esper都已先後承認當日陪同特朗普走到白宮附近的St. John's教堂拍照是個錯誤,暗示被利用了。更離奇的是特朗普竟沒有發tweet破口大罵,不敢?

大家可能有個錯覺,以為美國南部人士尤其種族主義者,一直都是支持共和黨的,但事實非也。林肯是共和黨人,所以南方人怎可能支持共和黨,事實是大部分南方人,從內戰後一直支持歷史更長、贊成state rights的民主黨。內戰後,共和黨控制了美國政壇約70年,直至羅斯福在1933年上台,採取左傾Keynesian政策救經濟,民主黨才開始得到工人階層和黑人支持,但南方白人仍無法背叛祖宗,仍支持民主黨;等至1980年列根參選,共和黨才吸引到他們的支持,因為價值觀較接近,民主黨反而被認為已變質成為只幫黑人的政黨。

根治美種族歧視 須修憲兼改革選舉

如何根治美國種族歧視是個大難題。解鈴還須繫鈴人,必須從修憲開始。千萬不要誤會歷史跟現代政治和社會沒有關係,從美國立國之初,參議院設計和選舉人票制度,都是北方州份跟經濟倚賴黑奴的南方州份妥協下的畸胎,賦予黑奴多,白人少州份超比例話語權,今天這些州份就是特朗普的鐵粉票倉。如不能修憲或利用Interstate Pact之類手法彌補缺陷,將極難選出合人口比例的黑人代表,通過全民保健計劃,和其他保障黑人權益的法案。如不改變選舉制度,即使特朗普不能連任,也難保未來不再選出另一個種族主義者,再次嚴重損害美國的偉大基礎和制度。

BLM運動已傳到世界各地,尤其美國黑奴制度發源地──英國。BLM更已演變為反帝國主義,連邱吉爾的銅像亦被塗鴉!約翰遜亦是個懷緬The Lost Empire的保皇黨,崇拜邱吉爾,曾寫過一本低質傳記。諷刺之處當然是他本人是被大英帝國打敗的奧斯曼帝國貴族後裔。

BLM演變為反帝國主義 邱吉爾亦遭殃

如英國人需要為黑奴制度懺悔,他們更應為在亞洲製造的傷害道歉和贖罪。英國人在18世紀初到達印度時,估計印度GDP佔全球23%,20世紀中離開時,跌至只約4%!1943年二戰邱吉爾當首相時,在Bengal曾因自私分配糧餉,只集中供應給英國軍隊和支持戰事的工廠,而導致300萬平民死亡的大饑荒。著名經濟學家Utsa Patnaik估計英國從印度盜取了驚人價值45萬億美元的財富。印度政客兼作家Shashi Tharoor,多次要求英國道歉和為200年的殖民時代作賠償,象徵式一年一鎊,和交還英女皇皇冠上的Koh-i-Noor鑽石!Tharoor曾說,英國之所以被稱為「日不落帝國」,是因為連上帝都不相信入黑後的英國大賊!





[譚新強 中環新譚]