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Thursday, April 9, 2020

周顯:千規律 萬規律 假帳規律只一條

文章日期:2020年4月9日

【明報專訊】瑞幸咖啡做假數,其實根本不用去計算,單單看它的商業模式,已經知道行不通了。喂,網上購買、實體店取貨……那又為甚麼要網上購買呢?這就好比我常常說的,租書店加個app,租單車店加個app,就叫新經濟,就可cap水集資了。

其實,做假帳,cap水集資,這條公式,從古以來就已有了。為甚麼在近年愈來愈流行呢?

答案是:其實做假帳是要成本的,假帳的水分愈高,成本愈高,這是不易的定律。所以,如果你一毫子生意都沒有,全盤假帳,成本就很高了,高到無論集到多少資,也無法彌補這條數。

因此,從古以來,做假帳的基本要素,就是找一家收支平衡,賺少少或者是蝕少少的公司,然後谷大個利潤,搞靚盤數,就可以集資了。更理想的是,如果有些黑錢要洗,因為黑錢要漂白,願意付出一定成本,那麼,利潤就更高了。

然而,在近年,由於生意只要有現金流,不用賺錢,就可以集資。換言之,以前假帳的目標,是做到賺大錢,現在做假帳的目標,是只要收支平衡、有現金流,就可以集資了,而且集資的數目還比以前多出不知幾多。

結果就是成本減少了,效益增加了,根據經濟定律,自然會吸引到更多人加入這「產業」。這就是張五常說的:「千規律,萬規律,經濟規律只一條。」

[周顯 投資二三事]

Wednesday, April 8, 2020

两只黑天鹅触发浩劫/冷眼(上篇)

2020年4月06日

两只黑天鹅,触发了全球的一场浩劫——人命的丧失和经济的损失。

在欧洲人的心目中,数千年来,都认为天鹅是白色的,直到约900年前,一名荷兰探险家,无意中在澳洲西部发现一只黑天鹅,才彻底打破了“天鹅都是白色的”的印象。从此以后,黑天鹅被西方人用以形容突发事件,这类事件有三个特征:①在发生之前,完全没有痕迹,几乎是凭空而出;②对历史有重大的影响;③事后可以找出根源。

黑天鹅未必是灾难

黑天鹅事件未必是灾难的,凡是具备上述三特征的事件都可称为黑天鹅事件,第一次世界大战、9·11世贸大厦被恐袭、电灯电话的发明、手机的出现、互联网的产生都是典型的黑天鹅事件。(见Nassim Nicholas Taleb的著作“The Black Swan”)。

一只黑天鹅,已足以翻天覆地,此次两只黑天鹅同时出现,触发了人类一场世界性的浩劫,是谁也没法预料得到的。

这两只黑天鹅,就是冠状病毒病瘟疫和石油市场的崩溃。

中国人忧患意识深

在瘟疫之战中,中国为什么会做得最好?

答案是:中国数百年来面对无数的天灾人祸,受尽凌辱,忧患意识特深,一见灾难冒现,就如惊弓之鸟,立刻采取最严厉的行动应付。

为什么欧美面对浩劫,手忙脚乱?

我的看法是:

①欧美都养尊处优太久,养成了“太子爷”的心态,没有忧患意识,疏于防患,反应迟钝。

②此次打击最大,死人最多的意大利、西班牙、法国和英国都是过去的殖民地宗主国,靠搜刮殖民地的财产创造了优裕的生活,缺乏应变的能力,只有德国,在二战的废墟中崛起,政府和人民都有警惕心,故在此次瘟疫中死亡人数较少。

③意大利、西班牙和法国都是文化艺术深厚的国家,人民崇尚艺术,爱好自由,对灾难的防患及发生后的应对,都是最弱的。

④在欧洲中,意大利、西班牙和法国都是濒临地中海的国家,气候温和,面对严寒气候的欧洲其他国家人民,都喜欢到这3个国家旅游,瘟疫的传染特快,这3国的医疗无法应付,只好听天由命。

为世人带来何启示

⑤在冠病中死亡的多数是老人,这3个国家最多寿星公,在医疗不足以应付突变时,只好放弃没有经济价值的老人,以保住有家庭负担,社会赖以创业的中、青年人。许多在老人院颐养天年的老人集体死亡,实是人间惨剧。

⑥美国死亡人数剧增,是因领导人傲慢自大,故自食其果。

这两个黑天鹅事件,给我们这些发展中国家的老百姓带来什么启示呢?且待明天分解。

十年一遇投资机会/冷眼(下篇)

2020年4月07日

为了遏止冠状病毒病的扩散,保护人命的安全,我们一定要遵行政府实施的行动管控令,留在家里。

我国经济受到冲击,企业界,尤其是雇用员工最多的中小型企业,受到严重打击,《南洋商报》3月26日封面版的一个标题“现金不流快断气”,令人怵目惊心,试想,万一管控令一再延长,企业真的断气,被迫裁员,员工失业,若财务基础变弱,家人生活怎么办?真得不堪设想。

发展中国家的政府已没有照顾社会中弱势群体的能力,我们作为第三世界的老百姓,除了设法自己照顾自己之外,别无他法。

受薪者尽早做两手准备

所以,受薪者一定要有忧患意识,提早为家庭和自己的晚年生活作好准备,这种准备工作,越早开始越好。受薪者这种准备工作,可以双管齐下,一方面努力增值,提升自己的工作能力,这是对职业的最佳保障,一方面一定要学习投资,为自己建立一份被动式的收入,这份被动式收入,应该跟着职龄及收入,逐步提升,到退休时,数目达到财务自由之境,使退休生活有足够的保障。

对普通受薪者来说,建立被动式收入最普通及较易做到的,是投资产业和股票。

无论是投资于产业或股票,都要把握适当的时机,才能加速个人财富的增长速度,早日达到财务自由的水平。

无论是那一种投资,投资者都需花精神和时间去研究和思考,并且不断的累积经验,才有希望做得较为成功。我一向专注于股票,所以只能在这方面跟大家分享心得,至于产业投资,当然也是一条很好的投资管道,我留给有识之士去提供意见,我就不置喙了。

股票投资要成功,投资一定要在开始时就设定终极目标,就是借投资股票累积财富,由小至大,到退休时达到财务自由,使晚年生活有足够的保障。我一向主张投资而非投机,是因为投机很难达到累积财富的目的。

在投资的漫长过程中,投资者一定要时时刻刻记住:你是在做生意,只是你没有去管理这盘生意而已。

你没有参与管理这盘生意,是因为你的股份太小,没有达到“话事”的水平,另一个原因是你也没有管理这盘生意的能力,作为一个受薪者,你如参股的是与你的职业完全无关的生意,所以你是外行人,没能力管理这盘生意,所以你把这盘生意交给专业人士替你管理经营,赚了钱之后按比例分红(股票)给你。

整个概念,就是这么简单,但股市中人90%以上忘记了这一点,走上歪路,自然无法达成累积财富的目标。

反向投资回酬超越大市

股票投资要取得超越大势的回酬,就一定要采取反向投资策略,道理很简单,既然股票就是公司的股份,则投资的成本越低,回酬越高,所以,“入股”(买进股份)的价格越低,则回本越快。

在别的投资管道中,投资者的“入股”成本,很少有跟价值相差很大的,比如产业,价值100万令吉的屋子,你可能因为屋主急于脱售,而以低于市值的价格买到手,但股票市场则不是这样,明明值得3令吉的股票,由于股市崩溃,投资者惊慌失措,你竟能以1令吉甚至更低的价格买到,这一方面是卖家情绪化,信心崩溃,一方面是因为对有关企业没有认识,或是太短视。

所以,在股市中,以超低价格买进股份(股票)的机会,比别的投资管道(如产业)高得多。

半世纪投资才遇到4次

这种机会10年才出现一次,在我50年的投资生涯中,这是第四次。

第一次是在1987年,原产品齐齐暴跌触发熊市;第二次是在1998年,在南亚货币风暴引发大熊市,吉隆坡指数由1300点跌至260点;第三次是在2008年,美国次贷风暴掀起全球金融海啸!这些大熊市很神奇的是每10年发生一次,故目前这第四次应该落在2018年,投资界的大佬及经济学家,在此之前已发出警告,说此次的熊市将比30年代华尔街崩溃引发的世界大萧条更加惨烈。

2018年来了又去,竟然平安无事,当城市中人松懈下来时,两只黑天鹅竟在鼠年伊始时降临——冠病和油市崩溃,形成全球性浩劫。

在过去的熊市中,人们所损失的是财富,此次则性命不保,难怪人们的恐惧超过过去的所有灾难。

这场战争,比人对人之战更加难打,因为病毒不但小到肉眼看不见,而且是天敌(至今没有特效药),又是行踪飘忽,随时会攻击人类。

股票投资,在平安无事的岁月,要取得超常的回报,要有技巧、智慧、经验、眼光和快捷的行动,谈何容易,在目前这样的熊市中,只要两样就够了——眼光和胆识,眼光是从芸芸众股中,相中最有潜能的股票,胆识是要克服恐惧心。

股市危机捞金须有胆色

受薪者一定要有冒风险的胆识,充分利用股市危机,提高年均复利增长率,以加速财富的增长速度。多数受薪者在退休时无法达到财务自由之境,年均复利增长率过低是主因。把钱存在银行的定期存款年利3.5%,以复利计算,也要20年才能增加一倍(1000令吉增至2000令吉),怎能达到财务自由呢?所以只听过有投资致富的人,没听过有靠定存利息致富的人,富人与穷人的分别就在于富人利用别人为他创富,穷人为别人创富。

两只黑天鹅催生了一场浩劫,股市受重创,制造了10年才出现一次的投资良机,苏州过了没船搭,投资者如果错过了,恐怕又要再等10年,人生有几个有用的10年呢?所以一定要充分利用来创富。我写本文只为提醒大家,不要因为恐惧而消极对待股市,这样会错过投资良机。

股市还有下跌的空间,大家无须迫不及待的下手,应耐心等到投资者一致悲观绝望,股价跌至令人难以置信的水平时,才是下手的最佳时刻。

https://www.enanyang.my/?p=1388077

SCOMNET: 隐形的冠军?!

今天要研究一间特别的公司:SCOMNET (0001)。

单单0001这个股票代码,就已经可以写上一大段文字了。要知道在香港带有好意头的股票代码是需要花钱买的,比如中国人寿(2628.HK) ,容易记又带有"越捞越发"的寓意。无独有偶,香港首富李嘉诚旗下的长和集团恰恰就拥有0001.HK 这个尊贵的股票代码,可以说是实至名归。

为什么马来西亚一间知名度不高的公司SCOMNET 会拥有0001 这样尊贵的股票代码?原来大约20年前,政府为了鼓励科技新创公司的发展,创立了 MESDAQ Board (现已易名为 ACE Market),而刚巧SCOMNET 是MESDAQ 首间上市公司,所以便被分配到这个稀有又珍贵的股票代码0001,这是否预示着《冠军》将是SCOMNET 的最终宿命?

从2001年上市至今,SCOMNET 与其子公司的主要业务都是环绕在电线电缆的制造以及组装,产品主要用于汽车、电子电器领域。公司所生产的优质电线产品虽然说是投入了极大的研发努力,但是始终敌不过2001年中国加入WTO 后隨之而来的激烈竞争。在2005年,SCOMNET 迎来上市以来的首次亏损 (税后亏损马币4.18百万),尽管公司管理层尝试力挽狂澜,亏损的业绩仍然持续至2010年,连续亏了六年,这是SCOMNET 一段苦涩的历史!

SCOMNET 的业绩终于在2011转亏为盈,并且在2012年到2017年持续有盈利,但是盈利数字还是乏善可陈。

SCOMNET 的转捩点就在2017年10月13日,当SCOMNET 宣布收购它的联号公司Supercomal Medical Products Sdn Bhd (SMP)其余80%股份,从而让 SMP 成为SCOMNET 100% 的子公司。

原来SCOMNET 大股东在2004年电线电缆业务面对激烈竞争时,已悄悄叧寻出路,毅然探讨进入属于蓝海、高门槛作业的医疗器械领域。SMP 自2004年成立以来,经过12年的努力经营,终于在2016年达到了RM16Mil 的净利。最难能可贵的是,持有SMP 80%股份的共同股东,竟以本益比6倍的估值,把SMP 注入SCOMNET,从而让SMP 成为SCOMNET 皇冠上的宝石!这项企业动作,可被解读为大股东善待小股东的重要依据。






根据报纸与网上的报导,SMP 拥有两个重量级的客户:Edwards Life Sciences 和 AMBU,笔者从这些资料再深入发掘。EDWARDS Life Sciences 是一间美国上市的医疗设备公司,在心血管领域赫赫有名,也是2019年全球排名24的医疗设备公司,市值接近400 亿美元。SMP 何德何能,拥有怎样的竞争优势,可以赢得 Edwards 的信赖,成为它的合作伙伴?美国与吉打 SG PETANI 小镇可是超过半个地球的距离呀。这个问题的答案可能要等到今年SCOMNET 的股东大会才能获得解答。

AMBU 是在哥本哈根上市的一间医疗设备公司,它的产品在全球超过3000间医院被使用着,从 AMBU 的年报中可以知道,该公司未来的成长动力来自一次性内窥镜 (Disposable Endoscopy)市场。Disposable Endoscopy 的使用可以避免病人在检测时受到感染,这项产品得到了美国食品药品监督管理局( FDA) 的大力推祟,而AMBU 正是 Disposable Endoscopy 的领先业者。

在SCOMNET 2018年年报有提到,SMP 已经有生产内窥镜的零部件,相信就是提供给AMBU 使用的。笔者认为,Disposable Endoscopy 在不久未来将会在全球各大医院受到广泛应用,而且AMBU 在 Disposable Endoscopy 这块的销售额也逐年增加,2020年的预估销量是90万支,比去年大幅成长45%。AMBU 在全球拥有3个生产基地,其中一个就坐落在槟城,SMP 可说是近水楼台先得月,有机会分享 Disposable Endoscopy 的市场大饼。

自从流浪在外的SMP 回归SCOMNET 的怀抱,SCOMNET 的盈利呈现大幅度的成长,2018 年净利 RM11mil,2019年更提升到了RM18.8mil 的净利,算是吐气扬眉了!而且公司也在2019 年开始派发 1.5 Sen 的股息,与小股东分享公司的盈利成果。如无意外,相信SCOMNET 今年依然会派发股息,大家就耐心等待吧。







接下来,SCOMNET 的路会否愈走愈宽?隋着经济的发展,人民收入的提高,人口老龄化,慢性病不断增加,医疗保险制度的普及化,肯定会推动医疗器械市场的扩大,SCOMNET 可望持续受惠于这未来的大趋势。

另外,SCOMNET 在2018年年报有透露,公司正计划推进第2 级别 ( Class II) 医疗器材的设计与开发。此类別医疗器材供中等至高等风险病人使用,而且需要 FDA 的审批。如果成功的话,这表示SCOMNET 将会生产出更精密与复杂的医疗器械,到时公司产品的售价与利润率肯定会更好,SCOMNET 要成为冠军似乎隐隐成形了。

一口气读完了SCOMNET 上市至今的所有年报,笔者看到了一间上市企业的起伏跌宕,也深切感受到管理层在面对困难时的坚忍不拔,把握机遇,并勇敢进入充满未知数的新领域,臥薪尝胆了好几年,直到新投资渐入佳境。笔者用"臥薪尝胆"是别有用意的,要知道SMP 在成立的首4年里,几乎没有任何营业额,而且业绩还是在微小亏损之中。

德国名哲学家尼采说过:凡是杀不死你的,就会使你更强大!这句话恰恰可以形容SCOMNET 的际遇。如此看来,SCOMNET 管理层的能力应该还是不赖的。

SCOMNET 冠军之路还有那些挑战?2017年之前,SCOMNET 的股价因为业绩平平而长期处于两毛钱以下,而且在2012年间又卷入政治人物的抄作疑云,股价在短时间内暴起暴跌,这些事件发生让 SCOMNET 形象受损,抄股的形象依然根植在许多投资者的脑海中。

时过境迁,今天的SCOMNET 看起来具有投资价值。管理层应该在这个时候走出去,在投资者关系方面作出积极动作,比如分析员报告,会见基金经理,让投资大众更加了解SCOMNET 的业务发展,为 SCOMNET 正名。

为了更加远大的旅程,SCOMNET 必须离开它呆了接近20年的ACE Market,投向主要交易版,这不仅能提高公司形象,吸引机构投资者进驻,也能藉此招揽各领域人才,发展公司的业务。

在新冠病毒肆虐的2020年,许多上市公司都面对困难,如果SCOMNET 可以继续交出好业绩,又成功转至主版交易,这肯定能夠赢得投资者的赞声,并让SCOMNET 成为大马股市里掷地有声的0001!不负0001这个尊贵的冧巴。

南洋财经: 神通网络医疗设备需求激增
New Straits Times: SCOMNET sees surge in new orders

By External Contributor

BURSA STOCK TALK facebook page

湯文亮:物業投資市場的 Corona Effect

文章日期:2020年4月8日

【明報專訊】多年前我初學投資物業時,請教一些資深投資者,老實說,唔會有人教。不過,大家經常一起飲啤酒,我又經常埋單,或多或少都會學到一些投資技巧。

接資深投資者「摩貨」蝕錢機會小?

有一日,有一名投資者在飲啤酒時叫了一支當時是新出的墨西哥啤酒,大家或者知道是Corona,我覺得那款啤酒很奇怪,因為飲啤酒大多數喜歡大啖大啖飲,但那款啤酒樽口非常之窄,仲要在樽口塞一粒檸檬,飲得非常之不暢順,那名投資者話,新晉投資者很難睇到物業真正價值,如果唔想買錯,最好方法是向資深投資者買入他們的「摩貨」,畀多少錢他們賺,因為資深投資者已經做了分析,以後蝕本的機會就會減少,方法與墨西哥啤酒一樣,叫Corona Effect,或叫日環效應,前輩仲強調,如果要做一名成功投資者,這些錢一定要畀人賺。

老實說,我半信半疑,因為當時很多「摩貨」到最後一刻都會取消交易,如果我「摩」入,可能買貴很多,這些日環效應不學也罷。不過,我不但沒有踢爆,而且仲千謝萬謝,這是最基本的禮貌。

當我事業有所小成的時候,有一日,有一名業主搵我,他要求我買入他名下一個物業,簽定了一份買賣合約,但不需要付任何訂金,物業代理會將這份合約搵下一名買家,如果成功銷售,差額賺價是屬於我的,如果不能夠銷售,到最後一刻就會取消合約,我亦不會有任何損失。我當然沒有答應,否則隨時被業主與接貨買家夾埋屈番轉頭,光棍佬教仔,便宜莫貪,這句話我還是記得。

辣招降低Corona Effect機會

很多人不滿意政府的打擊炒樓措施,認為擾亂了樓市的正常運作,但我有不同睇法,辣招不但加重了炒樓成本,並且降低了那些Corona Effect的機會,買家尤其是那些初次買樓的人,唔會畀人在中間賺了差價。

紀惠集團行政總裁
[湯文亮 敢說反話]

周顯:賭業難重拾昔日光輝

文章日期:2020年4月8日

【明報專訊】在Youtube中有人問我,澳門賭股的前景如何?

我回答說,賭股的下跌,都不是今日的事啦!這幾年中國經濟收縮,日子一日比一日難過,資本家都無錢,邊有錢去賭呢?

賭廳洗錢比銀行有優勢?

但其實,所謂的賭業,相信有一半資金,不是為了賭錢,而是為了洗黑錢。在這個世界上,沒有比賭博事業更有效的洗黑錢工具了……嗯,在以前,最有效的洗黑錢工具是銀行,但由於現時銀行業的規管太嚴,因此轉到了賭業的身上。

在賭業的世界,你開一個戶口,24小時可以提取現金,比銀行更加方便。而且,你在賭廳提幾千萬現金,即提即付,更加可以第三者收款,又有高息收,一年12厘,樣樣都比銀行更優勝,為什麼要提款呢?

你可能會說,如果賭廳擠提,它會執笠呀!不過,如果銀行擠提,銀行都會執笠,這兩者是一樣的。所以很多人都認為,存錢在賭廳,比存錢在銀行更有優勢。

在經營方面,賭廳的利潤比銀行高得多,這代表了,賭廳執笠的機會率也許比銀行更低。事實上,在這20年來,全世界銀行的利潤,幾乎都是來自銷售有毒產品,賺利息差,咪講笑啦!家陣利息咁低,賺埋都唔夠交租啦!

不過,在今日的疫情之下,全都是歷史了。相信就算疫情過後,賭業在可見將來,都不會回復以前的光輝日子。

[周顯 投資二三事]

Tuesday, April 7, 2020

Lead Story: Once-in-a-decade opportunity, But who dares to buy?

Liew Jia Teng/The Edge Malaysia
March 30, 2020 14:00 pm +08

This article first appeared in Capital, The Edge Malaysia Weekly, on March 23, 2020 - March 29, 2020.

I am totally lost for words. I don’t think I can understand the market or the economy anymore. I have suffered huge losses. If I had known, I would have got out,” a local seasoned investor, regarded by many as an investment guru, tells The Edge over the phone.

“If I had known …” is a refrain more commonly heard from mom-and-pop investors. Perhaps everybody is equal in the eyes of the bear. Perhaps there is no shame for any investor, big-time or small-time, who has suffered crushing losses in the current coronavirus market crash.

In fact, not even Warren Buffett, one of the most famous investors of all time, is immune to the crash.

Going by GuruFocus calculations, Buffett’s equity portfolio has lost about US$80.2 billion, or 32%, since the US markets began sliding into bear territory in February.

Although the crash owing to Covid-19 is not the worst we have seen — 1973, 1987, 1997 and 2008 all saw similar or worse falls — it should be noted that those previous hammerings were preceded by big bull markets.

“But today, the crash was preceded by five years of bad performance. Those previous crashes all turned around quickly because our country was growing well. This time, I am not so sure [if we can recover quickly],” says the local seasoned investor, who prefers to remain anonymous.

As the global spread of Covid-19 and collapse in oil prices are likely to undermine economic activities and disrupt supply chains, stock markets appear to have priced in not only a recession but also a significant decline in earnings.

Central banks around the world are slashing interest rates and pumping in trillions of dollars of temporary liquidity into financial systems.

But it appears that these massive steps — deemed by many as pressing the panic button — are not enough to calm investors and ease disruptions.

Over the past month, the three major indices of Wall Street, namely the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite Index, have declined by about 30%.

Likewise, Japanese and European stocks have also dropped between 29% and 34%.

Interestingly, Hong Kong and Singapore equities are currently trading at a single-digit price-earnings ratio (PER) of nine times, after declining 22% and 28% respectively.

At home, although the FBM KLCI also lost 21%, its PER remained relatively higher at 15 times.

Nevertheless, certain blue-chips are now trading at single-digit levels, which suggest cheap valuations.

Although the Covid-19 pandemic seems to have presented investors with a once-in-a-decade opportunity, or perhaps the best opportunity since the 2007/08 global financial crisis, market experts whom The Edge spoke to have warned that the worst may be yet to come.

Malaysia ‘not particularly cheap’, weighed down by other issues

According to Value Partners Group Ltd founding chairman and co-chief investment officer Datuk Seri Cheah Cheng Hye, foreign investors are worried about Malaysia’s recent political problems and concerned over the continuing weakness in the ringgit as well as the country’s structural challenges.

“I remain very cautious about the Malaysia market. At 15 times earnings, it is not particularly cheap. I think Malaysia has not seen the worst of the coronavirus outbreak,” he states.

Cheah opines that Malaysia will find it difficult to raise its productivity level due to poor investment sentiments at home and the reluctance of foreign investors to come in.

“The economy is in trouble if productivity doesn’t rise,” he observes.

However, Cheah acknowledges that buying opportunities have emerged across the region, as many Asia-Pacific stocks have become “too cheap” and some asset classes, particularly gold, look oversold.

“But I would advise investors to be selective. In particular, I think New York could have another 10% to 20% downside from the current level,” he warns.

“In a good-case scenario, a vaccine for the coronavirus can be found within this year and this would help investor sentiment to recover. But we cannot count on this — it may or may not happen,” Cheah stresses.

Affin Hwang Capital deputy group managing director Yip Kit Weng concurs, saying that despite the FBM KLCI’s year-to-date loss, there may be further downside. Moreover, the sharper correction in regional markets further accentuates the FBM KLCI’s valuation premium.

“At current FBM KLCI PER valuations, market expectations are potentially still too optimistic and we think that there is likely further downside for the benchmark index should there be a further selldown in global equity markets. The sharper corrections in regional and global markets are also making the FBM KLCI look relatively unattractive,” he points out.

Thus, Affin Hwang Capital has further cut its FBM KLCI corporate earnings growth forecast from 1.3% to -4.7%, to reflect its cut in gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 3.3% from 4% — its second reduction for the year.

“Alongside a higher market risk premium, we lower our FBM KLCI 2020 year-end target to 1,200,” says Yip.

With the announcement of a RM20 billion economic stimulus package, he believes domestic demand and private consumption will remain supportive of growth despite expanding at a slower pace.

“We believe Malaysia will not fall into recession. There are many good companies and investable stocks but fundamentals take a back seat given that Covid-19 is affecting both supply and demand chains. This, coupled with the current low oil price, adds more pressure on the Malaysian stock market,” says Yip.

Despite the substantial cut in corporate earnings growth forecast, Affin Hwang Capital chief economist and head of research Alan Tan suspects that this may still prove too conservative and that there could be further downside risk to earnings, should the Covid-19 pandemic be prolonged.

“In view of our earnings revisions, downgrades to target prices and the increased volatility that we are anticipating for the market, we review our sector positioning and largely move away from cyclicals,” he says.

Affin Hwang Capital has downgraded plantations and electronics manufacturing services from “overweight” to “neutral”, and oil and gas, transport and logistics, utilities, financial, and gaming sectors from “neutral” to “underweight”.

It is only “overweight” in relatively defensive sectors, namely healthcare and real estate investment trusts (REITs).

“We are still convinced of the growth story in the rubber gloves space. The weak ringgit against the US dollar should be positive for glove makers,” says Tan.

Geoffrey Ng Ching Fung, investment adviser and director at Fortress Capital Asset Management (M) Sdn Bhd, agrees that Malaysian stocks are pricing in an earnings decline.

“If we assume no PER contraction on the index, then [we expect] about 20% decline in market earnings,” he says.

Stay calm as the panic will pass

With the exception of the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis, Ng highlights that the FBM KLCI is near the bottom of the valuation range on a price-to-book basis for most of the previous economic or pandemic crises.

“We would agree that the market is in a complete risk-off, panic-selling mode and certainly pricing in an imminent recessionary environment, characterised by significantly slower near-term economic activity, consumption, exports and price pressure on real assets,” he says.

Investors may look to be overreacting but, at this time, it is a total risk-off measure, Ng says, so in-the-money stock investments generally get sold first, followed by cut-loss positions if liquidity requirements are still unfulfilled.

While it would be safe to assume that dividend payouts will fall across the board for companies that experience weaker earnings and cash flow during the period of the pandemic, Ng insists that he will still be looking for companies that historically boast high payout ratios as he expects such a trend to continue or even rise as a percentage of earnings.

“Some of these sectors include breweries and tobacco. However, this may be offset by increased pressure from the government through the raising of excise taxes on such sectors in the near future,” he says.

Ng’s advice to investors is to stay calm as the panic will blow over.

“Take the China market’s recent lead, where there was evidence that the Covid-19 outbreak was starting to be controlled. The world markets, including Malaysia, will stabilise and recover once the pandemic is seen to be under control.”

Ng is of the view that the current Covid-19 crisis certainly presents one with the best opportunities to buy stocks on the cheap but there are caveats.

“Asset prices were already ripe for a correction given the long-running equity bull market. The onset of Covid-19 has released a lot of pressure from this ‘late-cycle bull market’, which has reset asset prices to more realistic fundamentals. If the world economy doesn’t fall off a cliff and provided that the pandemic doesn’t last too long, we do see this as a great opportunity for investors,” he says.

More of a crisis for the West

Value Partners’ Cheah points out that based on historical experiences, a pandemic like Covid-19 will go away over time.

“Indeed, China is quickly resuming full production and the country will still be able to enjoy economic growth this year of around 2.5%,” he says, noting that while the coronavirus has caused a global crisis, it is much more of a crisis for the US and Europe.

“Of course, China and Japan are also suffering, but frankly, the crisis is much more serious in the West, particularly in the US.”

Cheah says the Chinese economy is driven by domestic consumption and investment, rather than exports, so the slowdown in global trade has only a limited impact on China.

“In contrast, the impact on the US, and to some extent Europe, is much bigger. This is because the US economy was already over-extended by the beginning of this year. The New York stock market had reached a historical high, while the US interest rates were at historic lows,” he continues.

Cheah observes that the US economy had been enjoying an expansion for over 10 years — a record length of time — and thus, the West was fragile and vulnerable when the pandemic hit.

In many ways, he says, the disease was not the cause of a crisis but acted as a trigger.

“This is very different from China where the disease put a brake on an expansion that was moving along nicely. The outcome is going to be that the West will face a financial and economic crisis that will not go away quickly,” Cheah remarks.

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湯文亮:股市樓市係唔係手足?

文章日期:2020年4月7日

【明報專訊】有老友問樓市股市係唔係手足?我唔明白他的意思,原來是齊上齊落之意,我反問,各自爬山是不是手足,老友話也是,我認為應該是各自爬山或者各自潛水,股市樓市很難做到齊上齊落。

近日股市大跌,尤其是匯控(0005),跌到令人慘不忍睹,但樓市就硬過鐵,由去年6月社運開始,就算有不可抗力的新冠肺炎疫情,樓價指指亦只不過下跌7%,但同期股市下跌了20幾個巴仙,由此可見,股市樓市並不是齊上齊落,現在是各自潛水,股市先潛,樓市稍後,老友話我講得很玄,叫我試舉例說明,不過要實例,唔好作古仔。

老實說,寫評論文章,邊到有咁多實例,大多數都是道聽塗說,加上不少幻想,就寫成一篇,如果用實例,很可能構成侵犯私隱而惹上官非。總之,評論文章,啱睇就睇,唔啱睇就唔睇。

股樓關係錯綜複雜 未必齊上齊落

不過,我有一個實例,在個幾月前,有代理話有客出9000萬元買我們一層工廠,那個物業是用300萬元買回來,收20幾年租,賣9000萬元,回報應該很好,代理認為十拿九穩,誰不知我推了,原因是在社運及新冠疫情夾擊之下,仍然可以賣到這個價錢,當社運及疫情緩和,賣1億以上也不出奇,代理明白,事情亦告一段落。

上周中原潘子明在同一物業畀我一個Offer,但僅8500萬元,我話要先問之前曾經出價的物業代理,如果他的客仍可維持原價,我就要賣畀那位客人,但原來那位客人已經縮沙。結果,潘總的手下做成了買賣。

潘子明問我是否見形勢不佳,放走一些物業,揸多一些現金傍身,我話不是,我們每月收租都不止8500萬元,現金亦足夠,如果我們亦捱不過「寒冬」,相信香港九成幾以上的企業要執笠,我接受那個價錢純粹是以物易物心態,當日匯控股價60元,我有打算賣走那層工廠樓之後買入匯控,當時可以買150萬股,結果我沒有賣走那層工廠樓,亦沒有買入匯控。今日我雖然以8500萬元賣出,但匯控股價跌至不足40元,當賣走那層工廠樓之後,我最少可以買212萬股匯控,多了62萬股匯控,所以我可以接受較低價錢,以此為例,股價跌,樓價亦有機會跟着跌。當然,股樓雖然有關連,但錯綜複雜,很難一概而論,不能一本通書睇到老。

紀惠集團行政總裁
[湯文亮 敢說反話]

Monday, April 6, 2020

陸振球:非常時期 善用期權

文章日期:2020年4月6日

【明報專訊】上周一紐約期油一度跌至19.27美元,但到了周五一度大幅反彈至29.13美元,反彈幅度達51%,主因是不論美國、俄羅斯和油組都似按捺不住,更傳出後兩者將達成協議會每日減產1000萬桶,造成報復式冚淡倉。

之前有朋友覺得油價低而希望囤油,雖然不是做期貨合約而避過要call margin,但因其是買入3倍槓桿的石油ETN,在油價短期內大跌一半以上,其買入的ETN被強制清盤,差不多total loss,問我意見,我說若是囤油,較佳選擇是沒有槓桿的ETN ,雖然升時爆炸力會相對遜色,但會較具防守力,看錯巿能返家鄉的機會較高。

朋友的例子,反映在非常時期選擇合適的投資工具很重要,比如匯控(0005)因撤回派息和回購股份計劃而股價急跌,便有不少持股朋友問如何應對,筆者在本刊今期「投資超限戰」專欄便指出,若持有匯控又不想斬倉,可short call自製派高息,其實如想低撈匯控,也可short put先賺期權金,待其真的再跌時才低位買入,便可以降低買貨成本;而相反,其實淨買call也有好處,匯控回升固有賺錢機會,如看錯巿最多也只是輸了期權金而不會陷入愈溝愈淡的陷阱,以至泥足深陷。

明報投資及地產版資深主編
[陸振球 主編的話]

Friday, April 3, 2020

Kossan Rubber Industries Berhad - Divesting Vacant Freehold Land

Kossan made an announcement pertaining to the disposal of a piece of vacant land in Kuala Langat for a cash consideration of RM153.4m. Upon completion of the disposal, which is targeted to be in 1QFY21, Kossan will register a net gain on disposal of RM39m. We view the disposal positively as Kossan would be able to unlock the value of the vacant land and reinvest the proceeds into its Bidor expansion. Given the one-off nature of the disposal gain, we maintain our earnings forecast for FY21F. Our Outperform call on Kossan is maintained, with an unchanged TP of RM6.00.
  • Disposing vacant land. Kossan announced that it has entered into a conditional sales and purchase agreement with Best Eternity Recycle Technology SB (BERT), for the disposal of a piece of vacant industrial land located in Kuala Langat, measuring 390.4sqm. The land will be sold for a cash consideration of RM153.4m and Kossan will lock in a gain of RM39m upon completion of the disposal, which is expected to be in 1QFY21. We believe the disposal consideration was fair, given that the piece of land was valued at a market valuation of RM145m in January 2020.
  • View on the disposal. We view this development positively as it enables Kossan to unlock the value of the vacant land and the proceeds received can be ploughed back to fund for the Group’s next phase of expansion in Bidor. Recall that Kossan had acquired two plots of leasehold land in Bidor, with a total size of 824.1 acres, for a purchase consideration of RM82.4m back in March 2018. The Bidor site will house and centralise all of Kossan’s future expansion. Note that Kossan has accelerated its Bidor expansion plan, with its first plant expected to be operational by FY21F, as opposed to its initial target of FY22F. In our view, the disposal was timely as the proceeds can be used to satisfy part of the Bidor expansion’s capital expenditure needs.
  • Plant 18, Plant 19 and beyond. Plant 18 (+2.5bn pc pa) has been fully commissioned in November 2019, while Plant 19 (+3.0bn pcs pa) is expected to be fully operational by 1HFY20. With more lines coming on stream, these two plants will continue to support the Group’s earnings growth for FY20F. Upon completion, Kossan’s total installed capacity should reach 32.5bn pcs pa. As for the Bidor expansion, management has previously guided that it will take c.8 years to complete and capacity would double to c.65bn pcs pa once it is fully commissioned.
Source: PublicInvest Research - 3 Apr 2020

SCOMNET - STB sees surge in new orders

April 3, 2020 @ 11:52am
NST BUSINESS

KUALA LUMPUR: Supercomnet Technologies Bhd (STB) has emerged as a beneficiary of the increased global healthcare expenditure as a result of the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic.

The company, which manufactures critical devices used for Covid-19 treatment, has recorded an increase in product demand, particularly since the beginning of 2020.

Moving into the second quarter of the year, STB expects to see further increase in new orders, especially from the United States and Europe.

"The company is working hard to fulfill the demand that it received. Based on inquiries and orders, we anticipate demand for medical devices to further increase in the US and Europe over the next few months.

"This is because Covid-19 is at different stages in each country, and all governments are trying their best to contain the infections," STB spokesperson said in a statement today.

Among its products that have seen a surge in orders include the disposable bronchoscope, which is used in the first line of lung treatment for patients with suspected or confirmed Covid-19 infections.

The usage of the bronchoscope is currently highly recommended by the American Association for Bronchology and Interventional Pulmonology.

The other product is a critical care monitoring cable that is presently being used for Covid-19 patients in the intensive care unit.

STB produces medical cables that are generally used for connecting various medical devices outside the human body.

It also produces reinforced tubes - used as endoscope and part of endoscopy accessories, connectors and medical tubes.

All of its medical tubes are produced for the North and Central American and European markets.

Due to the critical mission nature of its products, its cables are approved by various approving authorities such as the European Medical Agency, and the Food and Drug Administration of the United States.

Meanwhile, STB production activities remain undisrupted despite the Covid-19 pandemic, and affirmed its ability to meet the sudden increase in product orders.

Early last week, STB received the approval from the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) to allow the group's subsidiaries, Supercomal Medical Products Sdn Bhd (SMP) and Supercomal Technologies Sdn Bhd (SCTB) to operate during the Movement Control Order (MCO) from March 18 to April 14.

"Although our working staff have been halved, the plants are operating at maximum level for critical devices used for Covid-19 treatment. We are confident of fulfilling our existing customer orders for the year. I would also like to thank the government's support and our hardworking staff for all their efforts during this time," said the company spokesperson.

For its financial year (FY) ended Dec 31, 2019, STB recorded a 54.61 per cent jump in net profit to RM18.82 million on the back of a 39.28 per cent increase in revenue to RM122.97 million.

The Group currently has a dividend yield of 3 per cent based on the 1.5 sen it distributed last year.

https://www.nst.com.my/business/2020/04/580881/stb-sees-surge-new-orders

高频低频与心智排名/拿督刘明

2020年3月13日

iPhone 只卖一种手机,但他凭此爆品做到世界前三名。

2018年初,马来西亚人民熟悉的品牌怡保旧街场白咖啡,被荷兰著名消费品集团JDE,以14.7亿令吉全面收购并私有化该公司在大马股市交易所的上市地位,让马来西亚餐饮行业议论纷纷,精神为之一振。

其实很多人都不晓得,就在2017年4月这家以咖啡和茶饮起家的巨无霸,才刚刚以14.5亿新元(约约43.5亿令吉)全面收购新加坡三合一咖啡品牌Super,所付出的代价比收购旧街场白咖啡足足高出3倍!

2019 年中旬,日本zhensho 餐饮集团,以5300万美元或2.2亿令吉收购本土鸡饭品牌The chicken rice shop 全部100家门店,这项交易虽然后来有些争议,但卖主已袋袋平安,轻舟已过万重山!

餐饮业为什么受国际买家青睐,并愿花巨资并购?原因只有一个:高频!

餐饮业复购率最高

餐饮业是复购率最高的行业之一,所以,它的本益比也是很多行业里面最高的。

马来西亚著名企业家谢松坤的全力资源(QL),创立40几年以来公司增值4万倍,没有一年下跌。

他的股票复利增长超过30%,比股神巴菲特的21%还要高,凭得就是全力资源的企业版图都是高频行业。

他是亚洲最大鱼浆生产商,也是亚洲第三大鸡蛋生产商。

2016年,他把他的“3头马车“策略提升至“4轮驱动“,就是从海产加工、综合畜牧、棕榈油种植与加工,再添一员即全家便利商店(Family Mart),全部都是和日常消费品有关,属于刚需(中国用词:必需品的意思)产品。

那天见到好友KK集团老板,问他2019冠状病毒病疫情对他的生意有否影响?他说,除了那些设在旅游区的分店,一般开在小区里的分店生意都涨了15%左右。

便利商店笑看风云

所以别小看这些便利商店,以为他们赚的是蝇头小利,刚需高频让他们的生意翻倍。疫情对他们的生意不减反增,因为不论外面如何翻天覆地,饭还是要吃,水还是要喝。

99开了接近2000家,KK直追500家还忙着上市,mynews.com 上市后股价和生意继续飙升,各行各业凄凄惨惨,只有他们笑看风云。

那么,像我们这种从事低频产品的企业,该如何推广我们的产品?顾客可以一个星期来光顾好几次椰浆饭,但不太可能一个星期买几次包包。

我想策略有几个:

1)聚焦

只做你擅长的事,专注在你卖得最好的产品,在这个品类上成为顾客首选,让人想到这品类就想到你。

iPhone 只卖一种手机,但他凭此爆品做到世界前三名,手上的现金比美国政府还多,他们成功让顾客想买行动电话的时候首先想到他!

朋友说你现在只专注卖母婴背包,把自己框在那么小的空间,岂不作茧自缚?

我以前也这么认为,但上了胡隽老师的品类爆品课程之后,我领悟了一个道理,就是业务增长不是争货架上的排名,更不是看你产品总类多寡,而是消费者的心智排名。

马来西亚每年有60万新生儿,平均每个月有5 万个婴儿诞生,假如我们的品牌占了10% 的市场份额,每月就有五千个新增客户,销量还是蛮不错的。

2)做广

低频产品客源渠道要多,所以我们必须非常努力开拓新市场。这就是为什么我鼓励大家走出去的原因。

3)用高频拉低频

假如你的产品是属于低频的,那么你需要一个引流产品,把顾客拉进店里或自己的网站,带动其他产品的消费。

你的引流产品必须够独特和够便宜,让顾客忍不住进店或网站浏览顺便购买其他产品

最近我们做了一些促销,把一些旧产品降价作为引流,结果带动其他产品,效果不错。

电商发“疫情财”

这一次疫情影响非常深远,实体店铺都受到非常严峻的打击。

不过,根据我的经验和一些从事电商的朋友的回馈,消费者都转向网上消费,所以很多电商的生意不降反升,这也许对大家是一个启发。

疫情淘汰传统行业?/拿督刘明

2020年3月20日

2019冠状病毒病疫情肆虐,严重打击了各行各业,除了旅游业,我想零售业是受波及最深的行业!

这期间,我们收到了非常多来自连锁协会会员的投诉皆因他们的业务直线下滑,影响30至70%有之,非常严峻!

连锁协会曾连同其他零售协会召开记者会,呼吁商场业者体恤零售业的困境,降低租金以实际行动共赴时艰,度过难关!

到截稿为止,除了沙巴亚庇的Imago从2月起就主动降租50%外,其他商场业者完全没有妥协余地,只答应在他们的控制范围内办活动做促销吸引人流,一分钱不减!

如今“行动管控令“开启,商场几乎完全关闭,零售业者失去了收入,前线人员工资不能拖欠,业者还得继续缴付商场昂贵的租金,零售业正处于凄风苦雨,有冤无处诉之窘境!

香港最大地产集团新鸿基地产自2月起,就为这次疫情挑起社会责任,自发性降低30至50%的租金,让广大零售业者暂时松一口气!

新加坡凯德置地日前宣布为租户提供的纾困计划,包括减租25至50%,甚至用抵押金抵消租金!

云端厨房顺势崛起

属于淡马锡私募基金属下的凯德置地,在新加坡政府授意下对零售业者那么乖巧仁慈,但过了一个狭小的海峡却变了样,变得那么唯利是图,不近人情!

我刚刚在天下杂志读到林之晨撰写的专栏,他提到了一个非常关键的重点,就是疫情过后,传统企业会在这个过程中加速萎缩,而新经济则是顺势接管。

他以餐饮为例,为了避免群聚感染,大家少上馆子多用外送服务,这将促使餐厅提升与送餐平台合作的关系,刺激云端厨房的设立。

我想在大马,快餐公司设立自己的送餐团队绝对一触即发,是不可避免的趋势!商场人流稀少冷清清。

零售业加速改写

近来很多零售业者都信誓旦旦地告诉我,经一事长一智,他们势必加紧脚步和努力,加强线上渠道,把传统渠道减至最低,以防历史重演!

大马的商场,很多都是上市企业,蛮多还是连锁经营,每年盈利数以亿计。商场和零售业关系密切,唇亡齿寒,这种道理他们应该比我们更了然于胸,但为什么他们明知道零售业到了如此危急关头却铁石心肠,“嗜血如命“,一毛不拔?

商场有恃无恐

大马商场其实已经过剩,人流量较多的商场也是由那几家集团持有,所以他们才有恃无恐,不理租户死活。因为他们觉得待租者不计其数,不愁租不出去!

短期内他们当然可以高枕无忧,语无伦次,但经这一波惨痛教训,零售业的未来将加速改写。

因为这一波万一被淘汰出局者都是传统经营者,短期内很难被越来越多的年轻电商取代而顾客、经营者都在这过程锻炼出新的肌肉记忆,即使疫情过去了,他们也很难回到原点。

说白了,这疫情不止让用户消费习惯改变,经营者对新零售也得心应手,传统渠道很快就变明日黄花!

不是华商自私不爱国

话说回来,为什么大马忍辱负重、有强烈社会责任的大企业不多见?我们华社当然不缺有爱心的企业,但如陈嘉庚和郭鹤年那么有代表性的爱国企业家却屈指可数!

我想这和我们的国情有很大的关系。

大马华裔乐善好施,做善事不落人后,其他族群在这方面却远远不如我们,这是不争的事实。

我们不像友族同胞凡事有政府作后盾,尤其我们经过了60年的横蛮、贪污霸权和种族分化,久而久之形成了华裔对自己社群比较关注,对政府推行的政策和措施敬而远之。

很多华裔的心里总认为,政府或国家的事,是马来人的事,与我无关!

不是华人不爱国,是超过半世纪累积下来的历史怨气!

这就说明了为什么希盟上台后华裔争先恐后乐捐给希望基金,因为我们希望转型正义!

华裔企业家会想:乐捐自己同胞还可以,废家兴国那么伟大如陈嘉庚所做的事为什么不叫那些拿了政府好处的友族商家去做?

政商唇齿相依

大马政府从来没有营造让华裔赤胆忠心、以身报国的爱国环境,因为爱国企业家如郭鹤年可以因为一个无中生有的谣言,而被政客攻击得体无完肤,他在大马的商业帝国可以被逼变卖,不是我不爱这个国家,是这个国家不爱我!

现在国难当头应该是政府的事,为什么要我来承担责任、牺牲我个人利益?也许就这点让华裔商场大老板心里不平衡。

但他们忘了人道是不分肤色、不分族群的,一个救人于水深火热之中的企业才是真正值得社会大众赞扬、铭记于心的企业,更何况是和他们唇齿相依的零售业!

郭老二话不说在新政府成立后不计前嫌舍身救国,这就是真正爱国企业家的气度!

大马政府如果能仿效中国政府以德报恩,对华裔良心企业以礼相待,爱国企业自然如雨后春笋涌现、遍地开花,因为感恩图报是华裔自小被灌输的传统价值观。

但大马现今的政治氛围……不言而喻!

冠病让亚洲崛起/拿督刘明

2020年3月27日

一个看不见的病毒,搞到全世界瘫痪,我想这是大家始料不及的。

武汉封城的时候碰上春节,好像是大年初一,那时太太和女儿刚好在南京,机票是大半年前定的,本来打算亲身体验一下在这个古老大国过春节的热闹气氛,但武汉封城后,整个中国其实立即被震慑住了,南京也不例外,街道几乎空无一人。

结果太太和一班随行的同事,只好乖乖呆在中国朋友家,度过5天6夜的神州行。

记得冠病在武汉大幅度感染的时候,我的资讯很多都是从台湾新闻台和他们的清谈节目来的。

火神山医院从无到有,只花了10天时间,这世界壮举本该让人惊叹和赞扬,但却成为了这些台湾名嘴讥讽嘲笑的话题!

他们不谈中国工程师和技术人员如何为国家奋力拼搏,不谈民工们为了国家宁放弃和亲人团聚和冒着生命危险的伟大情操,却拿该医院的门锁来大开玩笑,极尽侮辱之能事!

小小的一个台湾,2300万人却有150个频道,为争收视率,他们哗众取宠,无所不用其极!



中国经验是很好的借镜,我们很快就能熬过!

夸大疫情致人心惶惶

今天你假如打开台湾任何一个新闻台或清谈节目,他们已经从挖苦、夸大中国防疫工作转向鼓吹世界大萧条。听好哦!是所有电视都报道和谈论同一话题!搞到人心惶惶,仿佛明天就是世界末日!

台湾电视台热衷于翻炒及时课题是众所周知的事,女星Makiyo喝醉酒打人事件发生时我刚好在台湾。

打开电视,无论早报、午间新闻还是8点黄金时段都重复同一个镜头,连我乘坐的出租车司机也告诉我他也“冬未掉”(受不了)!

结果,一个打拼了十几年才稍有知名度的女星就这样为了一点“小事”被KO掉了!

当然比较客观和专业的时事节目还是有的。才女陈文茜的文茜世界周报就是一例。

她的节目客观、专业、实事求是,喜欢用数据报道,甚至实地求证探访,加上她的细腻入微的分析,确实为台湾电视人扳回一城!

很快能度过萧条

我国这突如其来的行动限制令,让大马人担心、郁闷、无奈五味杂陈,但纵然空闲的不行,最不能做的事就是看台湾的时事和清谈节目,(可是自己又禁不住诱惑,我现在是看它的标题才点击查看)。

他们把负面新闻无限量放大,会让我们原本紧绷的神经拉的更紧,心情跌入谷底!

因果循环

冠病虽然对我们的影响颇大,但它还不至于毁了这个世界!

经济大萧条几率不是不可能,但以今天人类的聪明机智、科技创新,我们很快就能大步跨过。

我是佛教徒,虽然不是一位虔诚的信徒,但我还是相信命运,相信善有善报、相信因果循环。

这个疫情,似乎是上苍给予自诩为万物之灵的人类一个教训和警惕,人类必须为破坏这个地球的环境和生态负责、为我们的自私自利、大肆残杀地球上其他生物的冷漠无情取回一点公道!

然而上苍看似关了一扇窗但同时间祂又悄悄地为我们打开了一扇门,祂仁慈地没有把人类逼上绝境!

借镜中国经验控疫情

你有没有发现冠病在中国大肆破坏了3个月后,疫情逐渐被控制下来,工厂复工后,中国突然间成为口罩生产大国,其产量突然增加了数十倍,足够供应这个世界的所有需求!

就在这关键时刻,世界各国才陆陆续续沦陷,各国才开始警觉防护冠病的重要性,可是为时已晚!

中国在3个月内迅速把疫情减到最低,他们无所不用其极。

10天建起了火神山医院和改造雷神山医院,为疫情病患提供2500 个病床。

冠病疫苗以人类始上最快的速度研发出来、中国瞬间培养了数以万计的病毒专家,他们的抗疫经验足以让他们对这个中毒的世界提供宝贵的意见!

截至目前为止,中国政府已经宣布向世界80多个国家和世界卫生组织、非洲联盟提供援助,包括检测试剂、口罩、防护服等,并与世界各国分享中国的诊疗方案,向伊朗、伊拉克、意大利等国派遣医疗专家为他们提供经验和意见。

各国全力救经济减冲击

这一切,冥冥中好像自有安排,时间巧合的让人啧啧称奇!

想想假如冠病疫情同时在全世界一起爆发,中国在自己都应接不暇的情况下,绝对比现在的情况来的更加严重和不可收拾!

这一次的疫情对经济的冲击,绝对是史无前例的,灾情的严重性也是不可预计。

但我想,我们很快就能熬过去,因为中国经验是很好的借镜!

美国毕竟是地表强国,虽然总统特朗普出尽洋相、语无伦次,但联邦食品药物管理局(FDA)掌控着全世界新药的专利资讯和监管,加上各国都在尽全力研发新药,医疗领域的突破指日可待。

世界各国都尽全力防疫和大撒钞票救经济,这一股力量是史无前例,相信对推动全球经济有所帮助和把疫情带来的冲击减至最低。

疫情后全球大洗牌

我们没有悲观的权利,只有乐观面对。

疫情过后,我们可以预见:

●中国理所当然崛起,成为世界强国,而且是以理、义平天下。

●美国霸权主义陨落,因为有个猪总统队友,他们根本不需要敌人!

●中国模式的社会主义vs.西方的自由主义会再次引起专家的议论。

●人类面对重大疫情不再束手无策,医药科技将有重大突破。

●环保课题会更加被重视,人们对保健养生的意识提高,健康保健企业将独领风骚!

●线上交易大幅度取代线下交易,实体经济弊端显而易见!

●轻资上阵会是下一轮的生意模式!小即是美!

●经济版图大逆转,亚洲经济圈会逐渐取代欧美,亚洲的经济实力越来越不可忽视。

这是一个洗牌运动,生意越大,伤害的几率就越大。

上苍仿佛在提醒我们,是时候整理我们的心境,欲望是无止境的,人都是为三餐一宿而已,歇一歇吧!

我在自家后院写这篇稿,清晨凉风习习,鸟声虫声此起彼伏,居然还有松鼠陪伴!

几十年的商海沉浮,我在干嘛?

譚新強:全球疫情處理政治化 缺隨機抗體測試的科學根據

文章日期:2020年4月3日

【明報專訊】上星期開始討論今次大流行成為B.C./A.C.的重要歷史分水嶺,不止對公共健康政策,對旅遊、社交習慣、工作和教育模式,以至環保和氣候變化政策、全球經濟平衡、地緣政治角力和意識形態競爭,都有極大影響。

今周本想輕鬆一點,先討論開始有人預期的一個A.C.現象——Coronababies,一年後全球可能出現的「新冠嬰兒潮」。想法很簡單,全世界數以十億人因疫情隔離政策而被困家中,夫婦和情侶多了「空閒」時間,理論上就自然會多進行「baby making」活動,那麼明年出生率就必然飈升。對出生率過低的中國、歐洲多國,甚至美國,都是好消息!但有人指出,社交距離政策,對非同居情侶生活,形成極大交往障礙。Zoom容許我們WFH(work from home),但對「baby making」沒幫助。

我研究過香港2003至04年SARS前後的出生率,驟看有點興奮,2003年活產嬰兒46,965名,2004年升至49,796名,逆轉之前的下跌趨勢。但再仔細分析,發現原因並非出生率上升,而是幾乎完全來自當年流行的內地來港生孩子的風氣。幾年後,政策禁止雙非來港生孩子,出生嬰兒數目又再回復下跌趨勢。

「新冠嬰兒」潮未現 離婚率先升

「新冠嬰兒」潮仍只是個美夢,反而另一不良社會趨勢,離婚率已有上升迹象。很多婚姻關係本來已不美滿,疫情中,各種健康、家庭、經濟壓力都加大,很多人都變成抑鬱或暴躁,夫妻被迫整天一齊在家中,反而大增摩擦機會,家暴情况也在增加。

疫情中,美國人除搶購廁紙、糧食和口罩外(美國終開始承認口罩有用,但為時已晚),最具特色當然是搶購槍械,某些類型子彈銷量更跳升5至10倍!今年COVID在美國已奪取超過4000條人命,但直至兩天前,被槍殺人數仍然領先!據報,在費城COVID病人已需與槍傷病人爭奪急非常緊張和有限的ICU牀位和資源。

COVID是個疫症,本應沒有政治取向,但因近年「感染」全球的各種危險極端民粹、國家,以至本土和種族主義的崛起,不幸COVID亦被徹底政治化,東西方不同國家,甚至美國內的不同地區,都或採取不協調的截然不同政策,亦因此而導致更多人無謂犧牲!

簡單來說,某些西方極端份子如巴西的Bolsonaro,白俄羅斯的Lukashenko和更重要英國的Johnson(約翰遜)及美國的特朗普,他們的本能價值觀是經濟和股市比人命更重要,不明白控制不了疫情,兩者皆失。另一特徵是不懂亦不相信科學,特朗普就曾多次公開指控COVID只是民主黨故意製造的一個騙局!相反,較「緊」的東方文化地區如韓國、新加坡和中國,則明顯把人民性命,放在遠比短期經濟更高的位置,亦較相信科學,暫時控疫成效遠勝美英等國。

歐推Corona bond乃取巧財政統一方案

歐洲的意大利、西班牙和法國等,雖較看重國民生命,但不幸經濟上太過倚賴旅遊業,無法避免輸入病毒。另一大問題是歐盟只有貨幣統一,但財政和公共健康等政策,仍然各自為政。即使意大利面對如此嚴峻情况,歐盟仍提供甚少醫療援助。

意大利和西班牙的醫療系統已崩潰,所以CFR飈升至10%的恐怖水平!唯一希望是ECB應將短期內將推出一個龐大Corona bond 計劃,以聯合信用發債重建疫後歐洲經濟。某程度上,這是一個取巧的財政統一方案。

這場疫症,是一個對制度和領導能力的嚴峻測試。最可悲亦最可笑的是美國,暴露領袖的徹底無能,政策恐怖地搖擺不定,執行不力,已成為一場鬧劇,但死亡人數正以幾何級數上升,亦是一套超級悲劇。

客觀評核,特朗普的表現是巨大失敗。美國貴為全球最強大國家,擁有最先進醫療技術,但在特朗普領導下,竟然如此失敗。現在美國感染人數已超過20萬,全球第一,感染率是中國十倍,死亡人數亦已超越中國。預測「最佳情境」,竟是數百萬美國人將被感染,死亡人數更將高達10萬至24萬,可能跟其他國家總死亡人數相若!

但在特朗普自己口中,他的表現仍永遠是歷史上最好的。直至上周仍不停輕視疫情,言猶在耳,但現在就厚顏說早知疫情嚴重!從前美國總統杜魯門有句名言「The buck stops here」,意思是總統承擔最後責任。特朗普就剛剛相反,上周無恥地,難以置信地在回答記者有關疫情責任提問時,公開宣布「I do not take any responsibility」,上台超過3年,仍推卸責任,繼續賴上任奧巴馬準備不足!

特朗普政治凌駕一切 致防疫失誤

但特朗普的認可率,不跌反升至上任以來最高的49%!部分原因是美國人在「戰爭狀態」時團結愛國,亦當然反映美國人的愚昧。原來每天兩小時疫情記招,即使特朗普從不表示任何哀傷,從不安慰病人和死者家人,但仍是最佳的免費廣告!但即使每天在記招上吹水兩小時,仍然解決不了每天死亡人數急速上升的事實。
美國政策到底出錯在哪?最重要有三點:

(1)1月時,中國疫情已爆發,但美國缺乏警覺性,加上種族歧視,奇怪地以為疫情只會影響中國,莫非以為白種人免疫?當時所有西方傳媒都擺出指責,甚至幸災樂禍態度。周三記招上,白宮疫症小組統籌人Dr. Birx,直認她開始時以為COVID跟SARS差不多,只會限於中國小範圍爆發,不會變成大流行,但其實美國CDC在1月已警告過此可能性。

(2) 特朗普已將政治凌駕於所有事情之上,即使人命關天的疫情,他也一早定性為騙局。Fox電視台,仍不斷指控民主黨故意誇大疫情,促使經濟停頓,股市大跌,企圖阻止特朗普連任。仍有不少紅色州分,如佛州,仍拒絕頒布關閉指令,部分甚至仍鼓勵市民外出消費!不少特朗普支持者故意開COVID派對,參加上千人教會聚會,甚至否認病毒的存在!本來紅色州分如密西西比和路易斯安那已較落後和貧窮,人民健康都較差,且特朗普上台後盡力拆除Obamacare(至今仍拒絕擴大醫療保險),所以平均壽命較藍州短4年多,恐怕疫情必令情况再惡化。

(3) 我之前已隱若說過,但不好意思太注重,現在講得清楚一點,就是在這次疫症中,全球醫護界固然作出偉大貢獻和犧牲,但從科學角度來說,則有嚴重不足之處。

我出身是個工程師,總算有點科學和數學常識,早在2月14日本欄中,已大聲呼籲大規模隨機測試的重要性(尤其抗體測試)。一箭多鵰,能知較準確的感染率,不再瞎子摸象,矇矓不清疫情發展階段,到底仍在感染曲線的左邊?已近峰頂?還是已到了下坡中的右邊?隨機測試亦可告訴我們較真實的IFR,是否真的如理論中,遠低於恐怖地高的CFR?這些疑問,對採取甚麼公共健康政策,停止多少經濟活動的決定,至為重要。

但可惜一直未見反應。在英美最具影響力的傳染病學家Neil Ferguson(自己也中了招),初時亦只空泛地說中國真實病例,可能是確診的10倍,海外則為4倍,亦即是說當時的中國CFR約3%,暗示IFR只約0.3%,當時海外CFR只約0.3%,即是IFR微不足道,只0.075%。當時他猜測COVID的R0只約2,應較易控制疫情,可惜他從未呼籲過進行隨機抗體測試。

特朗普看到這些輕估疫情的猜測,當然高興,所以就採取懶理態度,以為疫情很快過去,即使很多人被感染,死亡人數亦很低,所以不斷錯誤以比喻為流感。Johnson更瘋狂,索性爆陰毒,故意搞秘密疫症派對,自己中招無所謂,但痛恨他連累香港!但到了二三月,發現不對路,確診個案以幾何級數上升,到了今天推近100萬,R0明顯比預期高,CFR更沒有像理論中逐漸回落,全球CFR接近5%!3月1日時美國死亡人數只1人,短短一個月後,已超5000人。

3月16日,Ferguson公布了極具影響力的Imperial Report(帝國學院報告),分析處理疫情的兩大方法,suppression(壓制,把R壓至1以下)和 mitigation(緩解,容許R在1以上)。心底中,明顯Ferguson仍支持逐漸提升群體免疫的緩解方案,但計算中發現峰頂宗數,將是英美兩國ICU容量8倍,所以絕不可行!只有盡量且長期5個月以上的壓制,才會有效把峰頂減至ICU容量以內。

英美政策急轉彎 為時已晚

這個報告發表後,英美兩國的政策才開始急轉彎,執行較全面關閉經濟措施,但為時已晚。即使COVID的本身毒性真比SARS較輕,但R0較高,結果是病危數量仍將遠超ICU容量,最後CFR仍急升至跟SARS差不多。

但到了3月24日,牛津的Sunetra Gupta又出了一個結論極不同的純理論報告,驚人地估計英國已感染人數比例已超過50%,群體免疫在望!傳媒更一知半解地說Ferguson也被迫把預期英國死亡人數,由近60萬減至2萬以下,美國則由220萬減到10萬至24萬。

可能因此特朗普上周又馬上轉向,焦急宣布復活節前美國全面復工,宣稱「the cure cannot be worse than the disease(解救方法不可比病更差)」!

但我一看牛津預測已感不妥,後來Ferguson也指出明顯謬誤,現今英國確診不到3萬宗,跟50%感染率相差過1000倍,死亡人數2000多,CFR約6%。那麼牛津報告即暗示COVID-19的IFR只有0.005%不到,比流感還低95%,荒謬!後來特朗普看到Ferguson和其他模型的最佳場景,仍將有十多萬人死亡,就再次轉軚,延長封閉至4月底(做他支持者很頭暈)。

Gupta終於呼籲進行隨機抗體測試,從而得知最重要的真正情况,但一個多星期又過去了,仍未見消息。我又計算過,如果感染率高達50%,那麼抽樣規模很小,只約1000已足夠達到95%置信水平,±3%誤差範圍。有何難度,為何至今仍未做?當CNN記者問到關鍵問題,如特朗普政府早在1月採取行動,能否減低預期死亡人數時(當然一定會),Fauci和Birx,瞎說缺乏隨機抗體測試數據(仍推搪並非首要任務),不清楚1月時美國感染率,難下定論,如當時宗數很少,就無須馬上採取行動。如是者,又為何責怪行動已快很多的中國,在12月疫症剛開始宗數很少時,反應過慢?

美元或貶值20% 中美GDP將拉近

如要成功對抗全球大流行,必須各國合作,協調政策。大部分人積極壓制,但小部分舉行疫症派對,最後大家仍失敗。特朗普說現在全球經濟都停頓,其實不對,中國正開始內部復工。跟大摩美國總策略師談過,他認為救經濟方案將有效,但財赤將高達GDP的20%,因此美元或將貶值20%,亦即中美GDP將更拉近。美國必盡力阻止中國彎道超車,昨天已有傳聞將再收緊技術出口。除此之外,暴力意識形態戰已再升溫,因為中國已向國際伸出抗疫援手,逐漸贏得部分人士認可,美國怎可容忍此趨勢!

(中環資產持有Zoom的財務權益)
中環資產投資行政總裁
[譚新強 中環新譚]

Thursday, April 2, 2020

昔哭匯控大瀉 胡孟青:博收息已非王道

文章日期:2020年4月2日

【明報專訊】匯控(0005)破天荒撤回派息「嚇窒」不少投資者,再一次令萬千股民失望,兩年前聲言匯控會升至150元(昨收報39.95元)的紀惠集團行政總裁湯文亮都說這消息令他「耿耿於懷」。回顧2009年金融海嘯大跌市後,匯控在當年3月2日宣布世紀供股,同樣傷了一代人的心。當年3月9日匯控股價更跌到33元,但亦是由那一天起,匯控見底,美股亦在當月開始迎來長達11年的史上最長牛市。

疫後看好零售股 籲匯控「死忠」短炒

當日眼見匯控低見33元而在電視直播期間感觸落淚的獨立股評人胡孟青,昨日談到匯控「世紀失息」時心平氣和。胡孟青說現時已沒持匯控,雖然感性上對這隻股份有感情,但理性而言,匯控不派息對投資者而言是當頭棒喝,是很好的教材,因為新時代新經濟之下,傳統「博收息」心態已非王道,投資者不應單看派息高低作為入市唯一準則。從公司基本面看,匯控近年受國際監管掣肘、自身失去增長動力,復遭目前大環境衝擊,現在連唯一的高息優勢也失去了。

再者,胡孟青稱,疫情期間,新經濟的特性顯現,尤其互聯網科技;而疫情好轉後,飲食、旅遊及零售消費會先動起來,因此新經濟及必需消費品一類股份前景比匯控好。她並認為匯控股價還未到低位,如果已買入匯控,「揸一兩手,或者早期買落,賺息都已回夠本的,那就當今年被凍薪吧」,但如堅持要對匯控情有獨鍾,「就要有『愛得深、跌得甘』的覺悟」。胡孟青奉勸投資者拋開個人感情,把匯控當普通股票看待,短期低買高賣,「以沽為目標」短炒上落。

料長遠復高息 曾淵滄「繼續揸」

匯控長期捧場客、財經評論員曾淵滄說,匯控今次停派息是要聽從監管機構指示,並非公司政策調整,相信疫情過後會回復高息水平,自己就肯定「繼續揸」。

東驥基金管理董事總經理龐寶林表示,匯控今次是基於外圍形勢,令一些行動不宜進行,例如裁員、回購及派息,避免令政府抗疫期間雪上加霜,但代價是犧牲股東短期利益和承受股價下行壓力。不過他認為,長遠看匯控仍具派息能力,其精簡架構動作始終會做,現階段也不失為低吸時機,反而應關注中長期面對虛擬銀行的威脅,傳統銀行前景將不明朗。

湯文亮:匯控不派息 英國損失最大

文章日期:2020年4月2日

【明報專訊】匯控(0005)昨日突然宣布取消2019年末期息,以及2020年中期息,老友問我有冇揸匯控,重唔重傷?老實說,本來很重傷,不過去年中,我老婆話我如果唔買樓,即是浪費「丁權」,於是我賣走了100萬股匯控,買入陽明山莊一個7000萬元單位。

老實說,當時我是非常不捨得,因為匯控有6厘回報,買樓只得2厘多少少,但世事真的是很難預料,如果我繼續持有匯控,現值只得4000萬元,所買入的單位可能跌咗少少,但一定會比繼續持有匯控為佳。不過,我仍然持有多少匯控,今次算是輸少當贏。

去年沽匯控 套現轉購陽明山莊單位

有老友問,可不可以告匯控取消派息,當然可以,不過浪費彈藥,匯控是以監管機構要求為理由不派息,完全是合法,是否合理就見仁見智。不少人認為今次匯控取消派息,持有匯控股票的人應該很慘;老實說,的確是,不過最慘的並不是那些人,而是匯控本身,以後都唔知點面對自己的支持者,講得唔好聽,百多年信譽一日清倉。不過我有一個問題,匯控就算唔派息,但可以派股,很多買股票的人都寧願收股票不收股息,雖然今次匯控用監管機構做擋箭牌,其實暴露了更大危機,莫非英倫三島缺水,否則,監管機構又點會要所有銀行不派息,講到最後,英國可能是最大受害者,取消派息是否值得,當事人心裏最明白。

不派息合法 合理與否見仁見智

有記者問作為匯控股東,我有什麼感想?我首先澄清一下,我只是一個小股東,對於股票投資,不能夠太執著,升了覺得買得少,跌了又問自己點解唔早些少放?永遠長在後悔中,做人又點會開心,最緊要向前看。我在澳門長大,多少有一些賭仔性格,輸完又嚟賭過,冇乜所謂,不過,今次匯控取消派息,真的是有多少耿耿於懷。順帶一提,很多人將外交部發言人「耿」爽讀成「狄」爽,現在應該知道是耿耿於懷。

紀惠集團行政總裁
[湯文亮 敢說反話]

Wednesday, April 1, 2020

Industry Comparison – Gloves - ivkls

Wednesday, 1 April 2020 

 Sector                 : Healthcare
 
Sub Sector         : Healthcare Equipment & Suppliers
 
As of 1 April 2020 there are 5 company listed in Bursa Main Market and ACE market which are doing business in manufacturing and trading of gloves. They are:
 
 
Competitiveness
 
Marketshares is an importance indicator to determine the competiveness of the company. Total revenue make from manufacturing and trading of gloves for the year 2018 is RM 10,140,827917.
 
COMPANY
REVENUE (GLOVES) 2018 (RM)
MARKET SHARE (%)
338,711,239
3.34
2,405,638,106
23.72
1,874,919,000
18.49
1,300,817,572
12.83
4,220,742,000
41.62
 
TOPGLOV has the most market shares in gloves industry which is 41.62 % of the total gloves revenue in Malaysia for 2018.
 
Operational
 
For operational, operating income of the companies had been review. Operating income determine how much the companies’ revenue had turn into profit after reduction cost of operating expense .
 
Besides operating income, operating margin ratio is also calculated. Companies with higher operating margin ratio have more probability to survive in today financial crisis. The median operating margin ratio for this group of companies for 2018 is 13.29.
 
COMPANY
2018 OPERATING INCOME (RM)
2018 OPERATING MARGIN RATIO
11,559,652
3.41
534,352,573
22.21
240,551,000
12,83
228.920,600
17.60
559,572,000
13.26
 
HARTA has high operating margin ratio which is 22.21 compare to the others company in the industries the closet which can match with HARTA is SUPERMX  which has the operating margin ratio of 17.60.
 
The gloves giants TOPGLOV only had operating margin 13.26 despite having operating income almost similar to HARTA. This mean that TOP GLOV has high operating expenses.
 
Sustainability
 
For the sustainability of the business, debt of the companies is being review. There are two criteria to look at interest coverageratio , which is used to determine how easy the companies able to pay off the interest of outstanding debt and debt ratio. The median debt ratio for 2018 is 0.40.
 
COMPANY
2018 INTEREST COVERAGE RATIO
2018 DEBT RATIO
2.11
0.53
67.44
0.24
12.33
0.38
7.89
0.40
15.22
0.55
 
HARTA once again show is the best company for sustainability as it have the lowest debt ratio and high interest coverage ratio.
 
Summary
 
In summary a point is given to each company to evaluated each company competitiveness, operational and sustainability. Points given are as follows:
Competitiveness
 
Criteria
Point
Greater than 40 % Market Shares
5
30.01 % - 40.00 % Market shares
4
20.01 % - 30.00 % Market shares      
3
10.01 % - 20.00 % Market shares      
2
1.00 % - 10.00 % Market shares        
1
Less than 1%
0
 
Operational
Criteria
Point
Greater than 20  Operating Margin
5
15.01 – 20.00 Operating Margin
4
10.01 – 15 Operating Margin             
3
5.01 - 10.00 Operating Margin           
2
1.01 - 5.00  Operating Margin            
1
0.00 – 1.00 Operating Margin
0
Less than 0
Disqualified
 
Sustainability
Criteria
Point
No Financial Cost
2
Greater than 20 Interest Coverage Ratio
1
Less than 20 Interest Coverage Ratio
0
 
Criteria
Point
Less than 0.25
3
0.25 – 0.45
2
0.45 – 0.60
1
Greater than 0.60
0
 
COMPANY
Competitiveness
Operational
Sustainability
Total
1
1
1
3
3
5
4
12
2
3
2
7
2
4
2
8
5
3
1
9
 
From the evaluation above, HARTA (12 points) is qualified for further analysis.
 
 
http://ivkls.blogspot.com/2020/04/industry-comparison-gloves.html

Technology - Pockets of Opportunity

We keep our OVERWEIGHT call on the technology sector going into 2QCY20 as pockets of opportunity have emerged after stocks took a beating in the wake of the novel coronavirus outbreak. While there is valid concern for disruption in both chip production and demand in China and neighbouring countries, we believe that the general trend for the technology sector is still pointing towards positive growth, albeit temporarily disrupted. We choose to take a positive view as valuations are trading at a steep discount from the peak while fundamentals remain intact. From the recent analyst briefings with tech companies, we are getting a general sense that orders are not being cancelled but back-loaded. This could translate into a late recovery in 2020, as seen in 2019. Hence, we believe that 1QCY20 earnings performance which is likely to be soft could provide an opportunity to re-position for recovery in 2HCY20. We like automotive-centric players as they offer more room for growth compared with smartphones. Our top picks are MPI (OP; RM13.30), KESM (OP; RM10.20) and D&O (OP; RM0.91).

“Chip” sale. We keep our OVERWEIGHT call on the technology sector going into 2QCY20 as pockets of opportunity have emerged after stocks took a beating in the wake of the COVID-19 outbreak. The Bursa Technology index is down 37% from its peak in mid-February. While there is valid concern for disruption in both chip production and demand in China and neighbouring countries, we believe that the general trend for the technology sector is still pointing towards a positive growth, albeit temporarily disrupted.

Opportunity to reposition. We are pricing in disappointing 1QCY20 earnings due to the extended Chinese New Year break in China and the movement control order (MCO) in Malaysia which led to longer than expected downtime in plant operations. Do note that the semiconductor sector is still permitted to operate during the MCO period with half the workforce. We choose to take a positive view as valuations are trading at a steep discount from the peak while fundamentals remain intact. From the recent analyst briefings with tech companies, we are getting a general sense that orders are not being cancelled but back-loaded. This could translate in to a late recovery in 2020, as seen in 2019. Hence, we believe that the disappointing 1QCY20 earnings could provide an opportunity to reposition for recovery in 2H20.

Launch of flagship 5G phones still intact. With the fact that Apple released a statement informing that its Worldwide Developer’s Conference (WWDC) event will take place as scheduled in June 2020, we have reason to believe that the timeline of Apple’s next flagship smartphone launch will still happen this year. In line with market trend, Apple is expected to adopt 5G in the upcoming flagship models. Such move is crucial for Apple to keep up with competition and retain market share given that its closest rivals, Samsung and Huawei, have already launched their flagship series (Galaxy S20 and P40 respectively) with support for 5G connectivity. We expect an increase in RF content per device in order to facilitate 5G connectivity, such as the addition of Sub-6Ghz and mmWave frequency bands. There is likelihood for 2 variant of configuration, a sub-6Ghz standalone and a Sub-6Ghz + mmWave model. Such configuration is in tandem with 5G developments roadmap where Asia and Europe regions are gravitating towards Sub-6Ghz, while the US are have started mmWave adoption. This bodes well for MPI (OP; FV: RM13.30) who is in the supply chain for Sub-6Ghz RF. Although Unisem (UP; FV: RM2.00) may also benefit by being in the RF supply chain, we are keeping an UNDERPERFORM rating at the moment as further cost incurred for the closure of its Batam plant may weigh on earnings.

Source: Kenanga Research - 1 Apr 2020

Rubber Gloves - Demand Surge and MYR Weakness To Amplify Earnings

Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Rubber glove stocks under our coverage have performed well following our upgrade eight months ago. Despite easing off from recent peaks, they remain strong outperformers YTD, led by TOPGLOV (+36%), HARTA (+26%), KOSSAN (+23%) and SUCB (+22%). The stage is now set for a solid FY20 following three quarters of anemic quarterly earnings growth. Coming off this low base due to the lackluster demand of the past 12 months, forward earnings growth will be amplified on re-stocking activities ramp-up due to the current COVID-19 pandemic which enforces higher hygiene standards boosted by better margins from higher ASP and favourable USDMYR. Our target prices for glove stocks are based on +1.5SD to +2.0SD which is to better reflect rubber gloves players’ prospects in anticipation of restocking activities, resilient earnings and their constant evolution and progress to increase earnings. We have OUTPERFORM calls on HARTA (OP; TP: RM8.00); KOSSAN (OP; TP: RM5.90) SUPERMX (OP; TP: RM2.00) and TOPGLOV (MP; TP: RM6.50). Our Top Pick for the sector is HARTA (OP; TP: RM8.00).

PER valuation potentially hitting +2.0SD in tandem with peak earnings in coming quarters. With the lackluster demand of the past 12 months behind us, we see re-stocking activities ramp-up as the current outbreak of the Wuhan virus enforces higher hygiene standards. Our target prices for glove stocks are based on +1.5SD which is to better reflect rubber gloves players’ prospects in anticipation of restocking activities, resilient earnings and their constant evolution and progress to increase earnings. Based on historical valuation at peak earnings, rubber glove stocks namely Kossan, Hartalega and Top Glove are trading at between +1.5SD to >+2.0SD historical forward mean.

Potentially higher ASPs in anticipation of a surge in demand and moderating supply growth in the past 12 months. Signs of demand outstripping supply could potentially lead to higher ASPs. Looking at the stable raw material price, ceteris paribus, hike in ASPs is expected to lead to margins expansion. We understand that some players have raised prices in anticipation of higher demand and we also noted the current high >90% utilisation rate for nitrile-centric players which is a stark contrast compared to the lacklustre demand in 2019.

Weakening of Ringgit (RM) vs. US dollar (USD) is positive to rubber glove players. YTD, the USD had risen by 7% against the MYR (USD1 = RM4.32). Generally, a weakening Ringgit is positive for glove makers. Since sales are USD-denominated, theoretically, a depreciating ringgit against the dollar will lead to more revenue receipts for glove makers. Ceteris paribus, a 1% weakening of RM against USD will lead to an average 1-2% increase in the net profit of rubber glove players.

Parallels with the SARS and H1N1 experience? During the SARS crisis, the infection was first detected in November 2002. Between then and February 2003, there were 5 casualties and over 300 were reported to have fallen ill of SARS in Guangdong province, China. During this period in 2003, Top Glove, Supermax and Kossan Rubber’s revenues and net profits grew between 15% and 25% while HARTA was only listed in 2008. Similarly, during the H1NI period, net profit grew 10-20% for rubber gloves players under our coverage.

Stage set for a recovery in volume growth. More importantly, even before the Wuhan virus crisis sets in, there were nascent signs of a solid uptick in demand for rubber gloves in coming quarters. 4QCY19 results season indicated a positive recovery in demand with players’ volumes sales growing an average 8% across the board led by HART (13%), Kossan (8%), and TOPG (2%). From our ground checks, demand for nitrile gloves is picking up again with players’ new capacities swiftly taken up. We believe this uptick in demand is turning positive and should be reflected in players’ bottom-line in subsequent quarters.

Nitrile gloves' market share to gain further momentum with potential 30% growth. Based on our analysis, we expect nitrile gloves to continue growing and expropriating market share from latex gloves. The growth in nitrile segment is evident. For illustration purposes, going forward, assuming nitrile:latex breakdown of 80:20 (currently at 67:37) and based on estimated global demand of 324b pieces in 2020 (forecast for 2019 is 300b pieces and assuming 8% growth rate in 2020), this implies nitrile growth rate of 20% or an additional 42b pieces from switching to nitrile gloves.

Our Top Pick in the sector is HARTALEGA. We like HARTA for: (i) its “highly automated production processes” model, which is moving from ‘good’ to ‘great’ as they are head and shoulders above its peers in terms of better margins and reduction in costs, (ii) constantly evolving via innovative products development, and (iii) its nitrile gloves segment, which is booming. Our TP is RM8.00 based on 48x FY21 EPS (+2.0SD above 5-year historical forward mean).

Source: Kenanga Research - 1 Apr 2020

Gaming - Playing the Odds

We upgrade the Gaming Sector to OVERWEIGHT from NEUTRAL as values are emerging as the intense market sell-down has pushed shares to deeply oversold positions and beyond fundamentals as well. Gaming sector is one of the biggest casualties of the COVID-19-driven market meltdown. Players’ share prices were thumped down by between 17%-41% YTD, hitting 52-week low and edged closer to -2SD PBV 5- year mean for NFOs and -3SD PBV 5-year mean for casino operators. As the hit on earnings is expected to be severe especially for casino with a worldwide quarantine restricting travel, attempting earnings estimates at this point are both challenging and dicey. Hence, we switch our valuation method to PBV from the earnings-based SoP and DCF methodologies. We placed a fair value for NFO players at -1SD PBV 5- year mean and ideal entry price set at -2SD while a notch lower for casino players given higher earnings risk. Nonetheless, GENTING is our preferred pick for its deep valuation while for dividend yield seekers, NFOs offer average yield of >6%.

The hardest hit sector. The sector players saw their share prices plunging 12%-30% in three weeks since the beginning of March as the COVID-19 turned uncontainable with rapid rise of infected cases around the world. Lockdowns in cities and countries globally, including our domestic the first 2-week Movement Control Order (MCO), added selling pressure especially to casino stocks namely GENTING (OP; TP: RM4.90) and GENM (OP; TP: RM2.50) which saw their share prices plunging to multi-year low of -3SD below their 5-year PBV mean. The severe decline of casino stocks started in end-January when Wuhan was locked down while other part of China imposed travelling curbs after the virus turned deadly. This bearish sentiment was compounded further by several lockdowns outside China last month as the deadly virus spread rapidly across the world. Likewise, the 4-week MCO forced NFOs such as

BJTOTO (MP; TP: RM2.25) and MAGNUM (OP; TP: RM1.95) cancelling 12 draws resulting in the share prices of these once-defensive sub-sector diving to -1.5 to -2.0SD below their 5-year PBV mean.

Casinos: lockdown of cities and countries virtually halted operations. In merely three months, this once exciting casino sector turned chaotic as it got bashed down heavily as the restriction of travelling virtually stopped casino patronages while GENM announced that Resorts Word Genting is closed for four weeks under the MCO while Resorts World Casino New York

and Resorts World Catskill are also temporarily closed until further notice. During the results conference call in mid-February, the CEO of GENS (Not Rated) guided for a pessimistic view on 1HCY20 and we have had not experienced such a downbeat view from the management as the deadly virus is already disrupting businesses especially with Singapore being a servicesdriven economy. Meanwhile, GENS may not spend more A&P at such a difficult time but will refurnish 200-300 hotel rooms. This round of market rout saw share prices of GENTING, GENM and GENS plunging 38%-43% YTD to their 11-year lows since March, February and April in 2009, at the height of global financial crisis, respectively.

NFOs: cancellation of 12 draws on MCO. The sell-down on NFOs, which fell 3%-6% for BJTOTO and MAGNUM in the first two months of the year, is less severe than casino operators which plummeted 12%-18% for GENM and GNETING over the same period, as the COVID-19 outbreak did not limited punters from frequenting NFO outlets then. However, sell-down started to kick-in when the MCO took place that sent NFOs’ share prices lower by 12%-22% in three weeks as opposed to 29%-31% decline for casino stocks, as the restriction order forces non-essential business to close business for two weeks. In these four weeks, both NFO players have to cancel 12 draws. In fact, these two stocks are currently trading at their two-year low which was at the bottom of ticket sales downtrend 1.5 years ago. To recall, the NFOs’ ticket sales were on a 5-year downtrend before bottoming in mid-2018 as the authority enforcement started to clamp down on illegal operators in September 2018. Prior to new lows in 2018, the last time BJTOTO saw its share price at current level was in June 2001, and July 2010 for MAGNUM.

1QCY20 is not a usual peak CNY-quarter. Given the depressed market condition, earnings prospect is challenging as well as dicey to forecast for the near term. We believe PBV valuation methodology is more appropriate to apply under this current market condition. Last week, after the extension of MCO to 14th April, we cut FY20 earnings estimates for GENM, GENTING, BJTOTO and MAGNUM by 39%, 13%, 8% and 8% to reflect the business closures, and also economic impact cascading to reduction in FY21E earnings forecasts by 11%, 7%, 1% and 2%, respectively. For the upcoming 1QCY29 quarterly results, 1QY20 would not be a usual peak CNY-quarter as the virus-driven lockdown will take a toll on earnings.

Oversold; Upgrade the sector to OVERWEIGHT. We are cognizant that earnings are expected to be severely hit especially for casino operators due to the 4-week closure of casinos. However, we believe the aggressive market sell-down has overshot fundamentals as casino stocks were thumped to as low as -3.0SD PBV 5-year mean while NFOs plunged to near -2.0SD PBV 5-year mean. In view of this, we are upgrading the sector to OVERWEIGHT from NEUTRAL. GENTING is our preferred pick for the sector given its deep valuation, trading at 63% discount to its SoP valuation while our target price of RM4.90 is fairly conservative which implies a 10% premium to its combined equity stake values in GENS and GENM based on current prices, not forgetting its equity stakes in GENP and other non-core businesses. Meanwhile, NFOs offer above average >6% dividend yields.

Source: Kenanga Research - 1 Apr 2020