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Monday, June 25, 2018

Morgan Lim 反思者 - 科技与建筑股: MMode值52 cents?现在 38.5 cents!

Author: Lim Wy | Publish date: Sun, 24 Jun 2018, 09:40 PM
June23, 2018
Morgan Lim 反思者

今天要分享的是一家接下来数个季度profit visibility非常高的公司, Mmode。

自2004年成立以来,M-Mode Berhad(M-Mode)主要从事development and distribution of mobile value-added contents and its related services which include digital applications, mobile games, video contents, SMS/MMS and mobile payment platforms。公司的产品通过与通讯运营商(Mobile Operator)的合作提供subscription 收费和一次性购买模式。而以前公司最大的顾客合作伙伴就是Celcom。

以上的业务都归于"Contents & Value Added Services" segment,提供以下的服务:

Mobile Web Games Distribution

Video Contents Distribution

Mobile Paper Publishing

Mobile Payment – TPAY

公司的recent achievements and recognition有:

- Forbes Asia's 200 Best Under A Billion (2012)

- BrandFinance® Malaysia Top 100 (2012 & 2014)

- The International Business Times (IBT1000 ): Ranked at 63th World’s Fastest Growing Companies For Year 2011.

- StarBiz : The 4th Top Gainers Among All Public Listed Companies In Malaysia For Year 2011.


若追溯回Mmode以前股价的最高峰 80 cents, 那发生在将近2014年7月。公司于2014年8月公布了FY14的Q2之后,自此公司的股价与业绩同步一路下滑了。

从下图可以看到公司的Profit margin从2013年的 15.9%跌至2014年的10.2%,因为公司的Pioneer status 在14 August 2013 expired了。(若读者们仔细观察上图,公司在FY13 Q3之前的profit margin都高达20%以上。)自此公司再也拿不到pioneer status,公司的profit margin就缩水了。


2013 年
Pioneer status 在14 August 2013 expired

2014 年
- 公司的股价在第2个季度公布前冲到历史新高,之后的股价与业绩同步一路下滑。
- 4个季度的prospects: The Group is expecting to face a more competitive market within Technology, Media and Telecommunications ("TMT") industry.

2015 年
- 2015 was a challenging year for mobile telecommunication industry as mobile value added industry continued to come under pressure from the increasing uptake of over-the-top (OTT) applications (指的是网上的应用软件), combined with more intense competition among existing players
- The Group had launched ‘Gamesterz’, a mobile social games publishing platform for native games and application via Apple App Store and Google Play Store and ‘Novelplus’, a mobile social reading platform.
- 4个季度的prospects:2015 is a challenging year in mobile industry. The group will continue to focus on its transformation strategy in responding to the changes in the eco-systems which includes of innovative measures to current business and expanding to the product life-cycle to Smartphone switchers, extending partnership networks for product diversity as well as building Talents.

从Annual Report 2015,我们可以看到以下公司推出的产品:


笔者去过Play store search这两个Gamesterz 和 Momoko 软件,可是已经找不到了,所以相信这两个软件应该是已经下柜,不再存在了。


NovelPlus 这个application是用来阅读digital documents的,2015年时在Play Store和Apple app store排名ranking不低。至今,NovelPlus 还是存在于市场上的。值得一提的就是这个NovelPlus的application只有将近500k 的下载次数,这次数可不高。
话说,On 22 November 2016, 公司把NovelPlus Sdn 以RM1,540,000 卖给了Leopard Venture Sdn. Bhd. (“LVSB”)。这个share disposal 于20 January 2017 完成。所以这个Novel Plus不再为公司带来盈利贡献。

4.FY 2016 & 2017 年

According to an article by PwCon 2017 telecommunication trends, players such as WhatsApp, WeChat, and Apple’s iMessage already represent more than 80 percent of all messaging traffic, and Skype alone accounts for more than a third of all international voice traffic minutes. As a result, many telecom carriers are facing significant decreases in their basic communication service revenues: drop-offs of as much as 30 percent in SMS messaging, 20 percent in international voice, and 15 percent in roaming.

主要因为2016年4月1号,Celcom 转换去新的 Content Management platform (namely “EMOMI365”) 取代原先用的 Content Management Platform (“CMP”) 。原先用的CMP 是由Mmode 的subsidiary company Tameko Sdn. Bhd. (Tameko)提供,这生意一路以来为Mmode贡献将近一个月RM2.60 million revenue,一年RM 31.2 million。(31.2 Million 的revenue对于FY 2015 年只有 48 million的Mmode而言,可是大件事!)

当Celcom转换去EMOMI365之后,Mmode的用户订阅量受到很大影响,与想象中的一样,无法恢复用户的购买和订阅。 EMOMI365推出一个月后,于5月,Celcom向业界发布了EMOMI365将被临时关闭的通知,直至另行通知。(这对Mmode而已,简直是噩梦!)

2016年4月1日,公司获得Celcom新服务的协议,这新的协议并非Gamestore, Big Win, Escape and Emomi365。(至于这个服务到底是什么,笔者就不清楚了,有机会会向管理层问清楚。)

对Emomi365,Big Win 和 Game Store有兴趣了解更多的读者可以查看以下的link。

M-Mode 预测到持续投资digital application capacity的风险高因为投资回报缓慢。 因此,公司把 non-profitable digital application 抛售了以降低成本。

公司避免太过依赖单一顾客,积极扩充和增强 products distribution platforms 以便可以 Mobile operators合作于外国市场。今年其中一个新的合同就是与Axiata Group, the parent company of Celcom 合作,扩大Mmode在亚洲地区与全国其他移动运营商(Mobile Operators) 的联系。

FY 2017, Mmode "Contents & Value Added Services" segment 的Vision和Mission 是:
Plans to boost our digital content and application offerings and services by developing engaging, educational, entertaining and trending contents, adoption of cloud technology that are available globally.

为打破对单一行业的依赖,本集团决定投资建筑业,以创造另一收入来源,并防止过度依赖单一收入来源。该集团在19 April 2017,通过E&J Builders Sdn Bhd 进入property construction sector因为移动内容 (Digital Contents & Value Added Services")行业已经越来越饱和。 E&J 是一个 任何类型的建筑工程的总承包商 (general contractors)。

于May 26, 2017,E&J Builders Sdn Bhd has entered into an agreement with Rexallent Construction Sdn Bhd to form an exclusive joint venture (JV) business relationship for the sole purpose of undertaking the remaining construction of the H2O mixed development in Ara Damansara, Selangor, for RM180 million.


话说,以上这个180 million的project 其实在May 22, 2015, Rexallent Construction 就被 Titijaya PMC 指定为那个project的 main contractor, 那时Project价值RM327.05mil。所以在2017年5月31日时,327 million的project完成到只剩下 180 million而已。

关于这个project,大家都会有些疑问,E&J Builders Sdn Bhd与Rexallent Construction Sdn Bhd joint venture的原因是什么?E&J和Rexallent Construction Sdn Bhd如何共享1.8亿令吉的合同金额,等等的问题。这些都在以下的link一一解释了,读者们自己看一看。

How will the contract sum of RM180 million be shared between EJBSB and RCSB?
Reply: E&J Builders Sdn Bhd (“EJBSB”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company and Rexallent Construction Sdn Bhd (“RCSB”) hereby agree that any and all profit and loss arising from the Project, specifically, all revenue and expenses in connection with the Project, commencing from the Cut-Off Date shall be shared by the Parties equally.
所以就是说,这个180 million project只会给Mmode带来90 million的revenue。

Details of the key management of the new business:
Reply: Ong Chee Koen, age 61, he graduated from the Federal Institute of Technology with Diploma of Civil Engineering. In 1998, he started his property and construction business primarily focusing on Ecobuild (M) Sdn Bhd. In 20 March 2017, he joined M-MODE as an Executive Director and is currently in charge of all business development, contract negotiation and management work for EJBSB. He has been involved in the construction industry since 1978 and has accumulated approximately 39 years of experience in the construction industry.

NOVEMBER 2, 2017, Unit accepted letter of award from Titijaya PMC Sdn to be main contractor for earthworks & ancillary sitework‍​ for 6.6 million. (Project expected to contribute positively to earnings of Co for FY ending 31 May 2018‍) 这是公司得到Titijaya PMC Sdn Bhd 第二个project。

2017年,公司朝向的direction就是成为 digital content and application provider and property contractor of choice with a stellar range of high quality offerings and services which are highly sought after by consumers.

FY 2018
8 June 2018, M-Mode Bhd 第三次得到 Titijaya PMC Sdn Bhd的project。Mmode得到 RM260.57 million contract to build a 25-storey mixed commercial development at Jalan Tun Fuad Stephens in Kota Kinabalu, Sabah. The project is expected to be completed within three years by May 6, 2021.The project is expected to contribute positively to the group's earnings and net assets for the financial year ending May 31, 2019

从以上这些消息,我们知道Mmode与 Titijaya PMC Sdn Bhd有很密切的合作关系,毕竟目前两年内,Mmode已经从Titijaya 获得了3次project,总数额将近RM356 million。

以上就是公司近年来的动向和故事,接下来我们看看Mmode director们的remuneration。

公司们管理层的总Remuneration 和 salaries大概 RM 1.8 million,大概是公司Net Profit 的20%,对笔者而言是蛮高的。


从这两年的年报里可以看到,公司的管理层有经历过大改革。Lim Thean Keong是Mmode的founder,从2004年 Mmode上市以来就一直是大股东至2017 年。2017年年报里的Corvina Sdn Bhd其实也是Lim Thean Keong持有的公司。而2017年年报里的E&J Venture Sdn Bhd是Ong Chee Koen持有的。所以2017年时,Lim Thean Keong是第一大股东,而Ong Chee Koen是第二大股东。

追溯回去,可以发现2017 年5月 31日时,Mmode有Direct Business Transaction。

下面有the star的报道,报道里有提到,这个Direct business transaction是因为有新的shareholder介入公司,将会把公司的业务多元化。直至今日,回头一看不难联想说当时就是Ong Chee Koen进入公司,把E&J Venture Sdn Bhd的建筑业务带入公司。

当时的off market transaction, Lim Thean Keong卖出6%的share给Ong Chee Koen。话说,当时的off market transaction是以30 sen进行, represented a 15.5% discount to yesterday’s closing price of 35.5 sen。从这边我们看得出,当时Mmode的founder Lim Thean Keong是非常想要抛售公司的股票,或者是急于卖出股票给Ong Chee Koen。笔者个人猜想说原因应该是Lim Thean Keong知道原本的业务"Contents & Value Added Services"长期下来走不下去,只好搬救兵,便宜卖出股份好让公司可以转换业务。

其实呢,On March 20, M-Mode 已经宣布命任 60岁的 civil engineer Ong Chee Koen 为 executive director了。Mr. Ong Chee Koen has more than 38 years of experience in both public and private companies with a solid track record in the construction industry. With Mr. Ong on board, the Group has been strategising and implementing certain plans with the overall objectives to turnaround our financial position. As a result M-Mode decided to tap this opportunity and Mr. Ong’s experience and network and venture into the construction business through the establishment of E&J.

2018 年6月22 日,也就是昨天,又有Direct business transaction了。而经过这次的Direct business transaction后,founder Lim Thean Keong再也没有任何的股份,可以说是退出江湖。Mmode以后就是Ong Chee Koen的主场秀了! Ong Chee Koen是以Ecobuilt (M) Sdn Bhd 和E&J Venture Sdn Bhd 的名义购买了14.155%的股份。

话说,当天Lim Thean Keong抛售了31.274%,但是Ong Chee Koen只是买了14.155%,另外的将近17%股份到底被谁买下了呢?o.O

抚心自问,Lim Thean Keong一手一脚印所创立的公司Mmode,曾经的辉煌时代,Mmode的股价曾去到80 cents一股。昨天,Lim Thean Keong或许做了人生中最重要的决定之一,把Mmode割爱,卖完全部股份。对Lim Thean Keong和Ong Chee Koen而言,Mmode的一切一切,以57 cents成交了!!而6月22日的Mmode股价,也一天狂奔16.67%,闭市于38.5 cents。

现在问题来了,大股东愿意以57 cents的价格交易,市场卖着 38.5 cents,我们大家是否有利可图呢?

我们可以从FY18 Q3的季度报告里看到以下的segment analysis。

FY18 YTD,3个季度后,"Construction" 和 "Content & Value Added Services" segment 各自占了 86% 和 14%的total revenue,而占 53.5% 和 46.5% 的 total profit。

笔者现在是不太了解具体"Content & Value Added Services" segment实际上是有什么service和产品,笔者之后问了管理层后再与大家分享。可是这个segment,FY18 Q1贡献 0.98 million profit, FY18 Q2 贡献1.06 million profit 而 FY18 Q3贡献 0.8 million profit。乍看之下,是蛮稳定的,我们可以保守估计这个segment每个季度可以贡献 0.8 至 1 million的profit。

而Construction Segment, 不难计算。目前E&J Venture只有得到 Titijaya PMC Sdn Bhd 3个project:

May 26, 2017, H2O mixed development in Ara Damansara, Selangor RM180 million. 这个project只会贡献 RM 90 million给Mmode。这个project估计 Dec 2018 完成。

NOVEMBER 2, 2017, earthworks & ancillary sitework‍​ for 6.6 million. (Project expected to contribute positively to earnings of Co for FY ending 31 May 2018‍)

8 June 2018, M-Mode Bhd 第三次得到 Titijaya PMC Sdn Bhd RM260.57 million 的project。The project is expected to be completed within three years by May 6, 2021.The project is expected to contribute positively to the group's earnings and net assets for the financial year ending May 31, 2019

目前,FY 18 Q3的季度报告,只cover到 M-mode 2018 2月份的业绩。直到2018 2月份,Mmode的"Construction" segment 一共贡献了 53.8 million的revenue。

H2O mixed development的90 million差不多在6个季度完成,每个季度平均应该有15 million的revenue。就以15 million的假设,FY18 一年应该有60 million revenue,再上earthworks & ancillary sitework‍​ 的 6.6 million, Construction Segment在FY 2018应该会有 66.6 million的revenue。

所以大概估计,Construction segment下个月公布的季度报告可能会有 13 million 的 revenue,以6% 的profit margin,net profit会有0.78 million。

所以,下个月公布的季度报告,net profit大概估计会是总共:
"Content & Value Added Services" segment 的 0.8 至 1 million + Construction segment 的 0.78 milion =1.56 million 至 1.58 million。换算过来,EPS 将近 0.96。到时,一整年的total EPS有 4.21 cents。给个PE 10的估计,Mmode的股价也有个 42 cents了。

话说,公司现有的Cash and cash equivalent高达 47 million, 以昨天的收市价 0.385 ,Mmode的market cap达到 62.6 million。读者们说,这个cash,雄厚不?! =D


1) 公司目前的Cash那么多,未来有什么plan?
2)公司目前tender 的 order有多少?
3)公司construction部门除了Titijaya PWC Sdn Bhd外,有没有本事拿到别的公司的order?

4)公司的construction segment有什么 competitive advantage?

5)2018 年6月22日的Direct Business Transaction, Lim Thean Keong以57 cents卖出了31.274%股份,但是Ong Chee Koen只是买了14.155%,另外的将近17%股份到底被谁买下了呢?

6)"Content & Value Added Services" segment实际上是有什么service和产品?

话说,Mmode有一个缺点。公司的Investor Relation效率非常得差,笔者一共email了两次,call了两次,也找不到负责人解答笔者的疑问。


Mmode 的founder Lim Thean Keong全数退出Mmode,以57 cents卖给了Ong Chee Koen 现任的director。FY 19时,Mmode于8 June 2018得到的Titijaya PMC Sdn Bhd RM260.57 million project将会对公司业绩有贡献。短期来说,就要看FY19 第几个季度可以得到 RM 260.57 million project的贡献。长远下来,现金雄厚,就要考验Ong Chee Koen 现任的director的实力了。


反思者 上


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