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Saturday, June 30, 2018

Etiqa潜在上市•周息率6.4%‧马银行价值浮现

2018-06-29 17:09

(吉隆坡29日讯)马来亚银行(MAYBANK,1155,主板金融组)从高位下挫13.8%,联昌研究认为,现是投资者趁低吸纳良机,以攫取伊斯兰股票(i-share)推介、保险臂膀Etiqa潜在上市,以及高达6.4%周息率带来的增值空间。

自高位回调13.8%

联昌研究表示,马银行股价从今年5月22日的历史高位回调13.8%,本益比从4月杪的14倍降至6月25日的12.1倍,相信股价跌势将为投资者创造趁低吸纳的良机。

“我们相信马银行保险/伊斯兰保险业务将是集团盈利亮点。集团在过去积极扩张保险业务,过去4季(2017年次季至2018年首季)净保费收入按年攀升18至28%,预期2018财政年次季保费将维持至少20%增速。”

联昌研究说,伊斯兰股票推介,以及保险臂膀——Etiqa上市将是马银行未来股价重估催化因素所在,其中伊斯兰股票将可取得较回教银行(BIMB,5258,主板金融组)溢价20%,意味着马银行股价潜存17.3%涨势。

“假设Etiqa上市,我们预测马银行股东将可取得至少9至17仙的Etiqa股票。”

综合以上,联昌研究上调马银行投资评级,从“守住”调高至“买进”,目标价则从9令吉75仙提高至10令吉。

“值得一提的是,马银行2019财政年周息率达6.4%,为银行业和大资本股中最高。”

文章来源:星洲日报/财经·文:洪建文·2018.06.29

贷款料加速增长‧永旺信贷财测上调

2018-06-29 19:02


(吉隆坡29日讯)永旺信贷(AEONCR,5139,主板金融组)2019财政年首季财报捎来惊喜,分析员看好不可赎回可转换无担保债券股(ICULS)转换将为集团促进贷款增长提供助力,加上贷款需求持续殷切,上调未来2年财测6至7%。

MIDF研究指出,永旺信贷2019财政年首季净利达9920万令吉,达到全年财测的32.3%,归功于净利息收入年增7.8%至2亿8700万令吉、收费收入达3870万令吉。

应收融资稳健增10%

“在利息收入贡献增加下,永旺信贷应收融资按年扩张3.8%至69亿令吉,同时营运开销也减少6.4%,营运开销占营业额比重也从前期的58.2%减至50.6%,我们预期望在长期营运成本瘦身管理下,未来营运开销占营业额比重将延续健康趋势。”

肯纳格研究表示,永旺信贷应收融资稳健增长10%,反映出个人贷款需求稳定,而分行数码化动作持续加快,预见成本收入比将维持在35.4至35.5%水平,与集团3年历史平均34至35%相符。

“与此同时,应收账项率(Collection ratio)持续改善,显示出集团严谨的客户筛选程序,以及采纳先进系统成功降低减记冲击,并将净呆账率维持在健康水平。”

该行预测永旺信贷未来2年总贷款复合年均增长率达到11%,主要是3年期不可赎回可转换无担保债券股已转换80%,将为集团注入4亿3200万令吉来帮助其筑起舒适的资本缓冲空间,以及扶持未来业务增长。

“假设所有的ICULS悉数转换,现金也持续注入公司,这将支撑集团2019至2020财政年每股盈利增长12至11%,而核心净利增幅则为16至11%。”


综合以上,两家证券行均上调永旺信贷2019至2020财政年盈利目标6至7%,连带调高目标价,但投资评级则保持不变。

大涨50仙

永旺信贷财报喜人,带动周五股价应声大起,全日大涨50仙或3.6%,报14令吉40仙,为全场第四大上涨股。

文章来源:星洲日报/财经·文:洪建文·2018.06.29

产能扩充•新产品带动‧益纳利美昌续看俏

2018-06-29 19:16

(吉隆坡29日讯)益纳利美昌(INARI,0166,主板科技组)产能扩充计划将可带动未来成长,正进行验证的新产品可有望带来正面惊喜,分析员继续看好该公司前景。

艾芬黄氏研究表示,该公司P13工厂已在5月竣工,可增加12万平方尺面积,此外,该公司也在今年首季开始建造P34工厂,分为4个阶段,首期工程可增加22万平方尺生产面积。

管理层放眼争取两位客户以配合新增产能,其中一位为新客户。

目前,该公司正针对最新的迷你发光二极管(LED)及垂直共振腔面射镭射(VCSEL)晶片进行质量认证。

艾芬黄氏说,高端射频晶片需求依旧强劲,主要是智能电话品牌需求及长期演进(LTE)覆蓋率增加。

资本开销可高达1.6亿

艾芬黄氏预测,2018年,该公司资本开销可高达1亿6000万令吉,胥视增加的新业务,这将可减少依赖单一客户同时可创造新成长动力,目前博通(Broadcom)贡献逾70%营业额。

该行相信,益纳利美昌凭借作为本区域最大的射频测试业者之一,可在5G推出后从中受益,再加上验证中的新产品一旦落实,将可提供额外盈利动力,维持该公司买进评级不变,2019年本益比估值约20倍,目标价为2令吉80仙。

文章来源:星洲日报/财经·文:谢汪潮·2018.06.29

来季业绩有望改善‧威城料否极泰来

2018-06-29 19:19


(吉隆坡29日讯)威城(VS,6963,主板工业产品组)第三季核心净利按年跌76.0%至1220万令吉,逊于市场预期;分析员相信威城将否极泰来,未来一季业绩会改善。

兴业研究认为未来一季业绩会改善,新生产线启用和营运效益改善料可令赚益复苏。

威城周五最高涨15仙至1令吉57仙,闭市报1令吉55仙,起13仙,该股也跃升10大热门股,成交量3516万5400股。

浮现买进良机

兴业说,威城股价最近跌至52周新低,这可能是外资看到盈利增长放缓而脱售。

分析员认为这是买进良机,首9个月营收按年增34%,主要客户有具活力销售订单。

威城基本面良好,前景亮丽,目前挫折是暂时的。

兴业指出,第三季净利是两年来最低,相信最糟已过去,并预期从第四季起业绩改善。

第三季因未可预期之高成本所累,兴业表示低估了停止美国客户生产线之冲击(有关订单有高赚益)。

艾毕斯研究说,排除外汇盈利的1170万令吉,第三季盈利各按年跌76.0%与按季跌68.9%;净利下跌主要是高原料成本所累,总赚益跌6.9%,美元兑马币走跌和高外劳成本是另一些因素。

兴业调低2018至2020财政年财测27%、19%与18%。艾毕斯调低2018与2019财政年财测39%与29%,来到1亿2300万令吉与1亿9040万令吉,迄今每股派息3.5仙低于去年3.9仙。

首9个月核心净利亦按年跌8%至1亿1200万令吉,只达到兴业的57%预期;低于预期是因劳力成本增长出乎预料。

该行认为,威城营收继续受主要客户的电子产品成品组装(Box-built)订单驱动,至于赚益则只预期国内营运逐步改善。

该行指威城各区域营运税前盈利按年挫跌,大马营运按年跌56.8%,高劳力成本与一些组装线未臻营运效益,新生产线起始测试成本拖累盈利。

至于印尼业务因产能使用低而蒙亏,中国税前盈利按年跌71.2%,主要归咎低销售高营运成本。

文章来源:星洲日报/财经·文:张启华·2018.06.29

酒烟业重拾销售动力 消费股下半年业绩看涨

2018年6月29日



(吉隆坡29日讯)随着消费税归零,以及消费情绪复苏,丰隆投行研究分析员预计,消费者领域下半年会录得更高的营业额。

此外,政府严打走私烟酒,料能让合法业者的销售重拾动力。

虽然有利好因素,但分析员仍维持“中和”的投资评级,因为相信乐观的前景,已经反映在股价表现上。

分析员说,希望联盟曾在《2018年替代财政预算案》提及,新政府希望从烟草和酒类分别征收61亿令吉和25亿令吉的国产税,显著高于前朝政府35亿令吉和17亿令吉的目标。

“我们预计,相较于通过调升国产税来增加税收,政府应更倾向打压私烟。因为,调高国产税只会导致合法市场的销量减少,进而导致可征税收入减少。”

以往数据显示,政府在2015年末季调高烟草税时,当时的合法香烟销量下跌,但私烟市场却有所增长。

至于酒类市场,则预计不会再调涨啤酒税,因我国已经是全球啤酒税最高的国家之一。

随着消费税归零,再加上6至9月期间还未推行销售税,分析员认为这对消费者领域有利。



销售税无损购买力

推行销售税后,消费者的购买能力料比以前消费税时期要高,因销售税所涵盖的产品及服务范围较窄。

分析员预计,政府一年可获得225亿令吉的销售税收入,若是消费税的话,则是440亿令吉。

分析员给予啤酒领域“增持”的投资评级,估计喜力大马(HEIM,3255,主板消费产品股)和皇帽(CARLSBG,2836,主板消费产品股)能从2018年世界杯盛事中,收获更多的销量。

另外,分析员也看好合成工业(HUPSENG,5024,主板消费产品股),因置入成本料更便宜,主要受惠于原棕油价格下跌。此外,该股的周息率也不俗,估值亦合理。



私人消费料增8.5%

分析员预计,下半年的私人消费料按年扬升8.5%,因看好消费情绪复苏、销售税空窗期、燃油补贴、薪金增加,将推高整体可支配收入。

另外,今年2月雇员公积金局宣布派息6.9%、零售销售增长良好,都为领域提供一个良好的市况。

值得注意的是,在新政府掌权之前,MIER消费者信心指数,就已经从去年末季的82.6,走高至今年首季的91,是消费税推行以来的最高水平。

分析员发现,大型股的股价依旧昂贵,本益比明显上扬了许多,不建议入市。

“虽然本益比的乘数已经是平均五年的两个标准差以上,但我们相信,这些昂贵的估值至少还会延续至今年,因宏观因素有利。”

Making money from money

BUSINESS NEWS
Saturday, 30 Jun 2018
by tee lin say


Money lenders give decent return on investment

LENDING money is one of the best businesses to be in.

With loan growth on the rise after four years of slowing, and Bank Negara data showing that Malaysia is finally on track to accelerate in 2018, one of the best sectors to look at will be credit and money-lending companies.

Mostly unnoticed are non-bank financial companies, which appear to be quietly thriving despite all sorts of headwinds, fears of new competition and economic uncertainties.

Over the last five years, their valuations remain modest despite their steadily increasing earnings.

Dividend yields are also decent.

Time then to look at Aeon Credit Service (M) Bhd
image: https://cdn.thestar.com.my/Themes/img/chart.png and RCE Capital Bhd
image: https://cdn.thestar.com.my/Themes/img/chart.png
.

Aeon Credit

Firstly, Aeon Credit provides consumer financing products such as easy payment schemes, personal financing and the issuance of credit cards through appointed retail merchants and chain stores.

The company currently has more than 4.6 million card members for its various products.



At its current price of RM14.52, it is trading at a forward PER of 11.24 times with a market capitalisation of RM3.63bil. Year to date, it is up RM1.06 or 2.83% with an indicated gross dividend yield of 2.83%.

Over the last five years, its profits have been growing at a rate of 8.6%.

Aeon Credit’s net profit jumped 30.9% to RM99.24mil for the first quarter ended May 31, 2018, mainly due to an increase in financing receivables. This was on the back of a 7.8% jump in revenue to RM325.72mil a year ago.

In a filing with Bursa on Thursday, Aeon Credit said financing receivables was 3.8% higher to RM6.92bil as at May 31, 2018. Its non-performing loans ratio was 2.26% as at May 31, 2018 compared with 2.43% as at May 31, 2017.

Other income for the quarter was RM29.25mil, mainly comprising bad debts recovered, commission income from sale of insurance products and loyalty programme processing fees.

Total transaction and financing volume rose to RM1.1 billion against RM1.05 billion previously.

Aeon Credit expects to maintain its financial performance for the year, (FY19) based on the scheduled implementation of its business plan.

Aeon Credit’s management had in the past one to two years undertaken initiatives, which among others included a value-chain transformation exercise, which focuses on enhancing the bottom line of the group as well as boosting the profitability of its receivable portfolios and credit recoveries.

“We saw a continuous pick-up in credit card spending and personal financing growth, lower operating expenses, improved collection and firmer margins – better than we initially anticipated,” says Affin Hwang Capital analyst Tan Ei Leen in her June 6 report.

She adds that Aeon Credit is looking to expand its target market further beyond the B40 group (bottom 40% of Malaysian households). Though this will be positive for Aeon Credit to outperform its FY18’s receivables growth of 11% year-on-year, the lower-risk concentration receivables however will not justify returns higher than its average yield of some 18% in FY18.

Tan has raised her FY19 to FY21 earnings per share forecasts by 10%, 15.9% and 9% due to lower operating expenses, lower funding cost, firmer receivables yield and slightly higher credit recoveries.

“As such, we revise our price target to RM18.40 based on an unchanged 13x price-earnings ratio (PER) on a 2019 calendar year earnings per share of 141.5 sen. We maintain our Buy rating on Aeon Credit given an attractive upside potential of 25%,” she says.

RCE Capital

Meanwhile RCE Capital is controlled by prominent banker Tan Sri Azman Hashim, who owns a 58.6% stake via Amcorp Group.

Its subsidiaries are involved in financial services, while its earnings are predominantly derived from its consumer financing segment. Over the last five years, its net profit has grown at a compounded annual rate of 52.04%.

At its current price of RM1.51, it trades at a forward PER of only 5.7 times and has a market capitalisation of RM511.7mil. Based on the seven sen dividend given out for its financial year (FY) ended March 31, 2018, this translates to a dividend yield of 4.6%.

RCE Capital pursues growth organically by expanding its loan base primarily in the consumer financing segment as financiers of cooperatives and foundations. Emphasis is placed on its turnaround time and a prudent approach on its loan classifications and recognition. It adheres strictly to a debt service ratio of 60% and is more selective in its lending criteria.

For its fourth quarter ended March 31, 2018, net profit was up 8.36% to RM23.02mil on the back of a 10.46% jump in revenue to RM63.24mil. It also declared a four sen dividend.

The better results were primarily led by higher interest and fee income backed by the expanded loan base from its consumer financing segment.

For the full year (FY18), net profit was up 12.33% to RM88.68mil while revenue was up 10.1% to RM245.91mil. Full-year dividends amounted to seven sen, which translates to a payout of 27%. At its current share price of RM1.51, this would imply a dividend yield of 4.6%.

RCE Capital’s loan base of RM1.5bil is also an increase of 11.6% compared to a year ago. This translates to a double-digit growth for the third consecutive year as it has gradually rebuilt its portfolio since 2014.

According to Maybank Research, the stock is trading at an estimated FY19 price-earnings ratio of just 6x and a price-to-book value (P/BV) of 0.9x and a return on equity of just 16.8%.

“Valuations are undemanding for RCE, especially since dividend yields are also a decent 4.5%. There is room for growth since RCE commands a market share of just 1.5% of the civil servant financing market,” it says.

Maybank Research has maintained its Buy call with an unchanged target price of RM1.76, pegged to a 2019 calendar year P/BV of 1x.

The research house opines that there is still much room for growth

“Based on our estimates, with a loan receivables book of just RM1.5bil, RCE’s market share of the civil servant financing market is just 1.5% and with 75,000 borrowers in its portfolio. This accounts for just about 5% of the civil servant workforce.

“Even if the size of the civil service is capped, there is still room for growth we believe, especially since some of the lenders have scaled back on such activity. We project more moderate loan growth of 6%-7% per annum over the next three years for RCE,” it adds.

At the same time, RCE Capital’s sukuk bonds account for 59% of the group’s total funding, which is positive. This is because it allows RCE Capital to lock in a substantial part of its funding at fixed rates over the longer term.

“With a net gearing ratio of 2.2x, there is still much room to leverage up,” it says.

According to Bank Negara, personal financing accounted for 14.6% of the total household debt as at end-2017.

Maybank Research says this essentially implies that as at end-2017, personal financing amounted to about RM167bil of the total household debt of RM1.14bil.

“Of the RM167bil market, Bank Rakyat commands an estimate 38% market share, by our estimates. Commercial banks, ex-Bank Islam, make up another 34%, with Bank Islam and Bank Simpanan Nasional (BSN) accounting for 7% and 6% respectively. With an outstanding receivables book of RM1.6bil, RCE’s market share is just 1%,” says Maybank Research.

Of these players below, Maybank Research says the largest lenders to the government civil service would be Bank Rakyat, Malaysia Building Society Bhd
image: https://cdn.thestar.com.my/Themes/img/chart.png (MBSB) and BSN, while the commercial banks are not large players in this space.

“As it stands, lending to civil servants has been slowing, especially since lenders have been encouraged to adhere more strictly to a debt service ratio of 60%. RCE’s loan book expanded at a more moderate pace of 8% in FY18, from 12% in FY17, and we forecast more moderate growth of 7% in FY19 and 6% in FY20,” it says.

While it is aware the civil servant workforce could stagnate, if not shrink, under the current government, it considers RCE Capital still as a small player in the civil servant financing space.

“There is market share to be gained, especially since players such as MBSB have turned less active in this space,” it says.

Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/06/30/making-money-from-money/#vqAJBREh3adl3DZ4.99

Friday, June 29, 2018

[转贴] 无聊是一件好事 - 水星

Thursday, June 28, 2018

无聊,一般而言是一个带有贬义或负面的形容词,例如:”你这人很无聊.”,”我的工作很无聊”,”他的设计/演说很无聊”等等.

“无聊是坏事”这种心理,让人类下意识的去不停追求人生乐趣,觉得随时都充满刺激惊喜的生活才是让自己过得更好的途径.

然而,来到投资,让自己暴露于资讯过度膨胀的环境,随时贴近股市和股友的各种吹水,是否上策?



刚花了两天读完已经买了一年,但之前一直都提不起劲翻开来读,Guy Spier所写的<华尔街之狼从良记>,不过一开始翻阅就停不下来的一本佳作.

作者和巴菲特共进午餐后,所做过的最重大变化,就是离开热闹繁华的金融中心纽约,搬到相对安静乏味的苏黎世,为自己打造理想的投资环境.

他提到,在与极端财富过于接近的环境下,不理性的大脑中很可能会引起愤愤不平的反应,使他更容易受诱惑,冲动地把投资拿来奋力一搏赌赌财运,而不是镇定地赚钱相当优异的复合报酬率,不冒不适当的风险.

生活在比较平凡,可以让心情平静度日的地方,让他可以把注意放在家人和他所管理的投资上,不会受到不当的干扰,而能够以略微理性一点的方式操作.偶尔会被别人问:”但是这样不会无聊吗?”他的回答是:”无聊是好事,身为投资人,这正是我需要的.”因为分心是真正的大问题,他需要的是普通,不显眼,不会过度兴奋的环境.

他也提到,大多提供资讯的平台,为了吸引更多的用户,都经过巧妙的设计,把无止境的新闻和资料流量,送进投资人的脑海里,使投资人很难凝聚自律的力量.当股价在你眼前闪动,重要新闻警示信号响着,每则讯息都唤起你的注意,每一件事情都牵连别的事情,就会发现自己弹跳在资讯悲惨的世界中,难以关掉资讯水龙头去专心思考最重要的事情.

听过一个童话故事.有一个很喜欢粉红色的国王,命令他的大臣把王国里的全部东西都染成粉红色.大臣们心里虽然不愿意,还是不得不遵从国王的命令.于是,不止衣服房子,甚至把所有的山和草地都漆成了粉红色.即使如此,国王仍然感到十分失落,因为他无法把天空变成粉红色.结果,一位大臣灵机一动帮国王戴上了一副粉红色的眼镜,从此之后国王所看到的世界都是粉红色的了,他也觉得满足快乐.

虽然听起来好像是叫人戴上有色眼镜去满足个人需求的意思,不过不妨从另外一个角度去思考,想要得到幸福感的秘诀,不在于改变你周围的事物,而在于改变你自己看待事情的目光和心.

如何看待”投资很无聊”一事,亦是如此,与其尝试改变大环境,不如从培育自身的内心开始做起.

大家的作法各有不同,水星熊本身是透过阅读,运动,专心写作鲜少回应,当然还有重要的股息稳定流入,去让自己处于淡若如水的心境,做过了,就知道比起常常懊恼该如何让自己的生活变得”有趣”,这是更难的挑战.

加上昨天收到的股息,今年首十个月的股息薪水正式超越去年的数额,今年只剩下两个月就完结,这段时间所收到的每一分钱都会是一个个人新记录,想到这点,就觉得虽然股息投资法大多时候都沉闷无聊,乏味无比,也很难每天找到新点子和新题材去分享,不过能够在投资法上被套以无聊这形容词,实际上个人觉得是一件好事.

Posted by 水星 at 6:30 PM

http://mercurychong.blogspot.com/2018/06/blog-post_28.html

VS Industry Berhad - Disappointing Quarter

Author:   |    Publish date: 


The Group reported a somewhat disappointing 3QFY18 net profit of only RM21.1m for a cumulative 9MFY18 net profit of RM112.3m. This obviously misses our and consensus estimates, only making up 60% and 57% of respective full-year estimates, with the significant discrepancy attributed mainly to higher-than expected costs from 1) cessation of certain product models by a US client, and 2) labor, set-up and testing for new product lines. While we are comforted by the fact that the Group continues to secure new orders, reflected by cumulative 9MFY18 revenue of RM3.1bn (+34% YoY) hitting yet another record-high, we are a little wary of its on-going grapples with cost-related issues. We lower our FY18 to FY20 earnings estimates between 8% and 16% to account largely for higher cost assumptions, while also conservatively lower our revenue assumptions by an average 5%. Our target price is consequently reduced to RM1.68 (RM2.22 previously) as we also reduce our multiple to 15x (18x previously) on fully-diluted FY19 EPS of 11.2sen due to higher risk premiums. Our Outperform call is retained nonetheless, as we continue to believe in its longer-tem investment merits despite current challenges.
  • Revenue for 3QFY18 was lower 21% QoQ largely due to the cessation of certain product models by a US client as mentioned earlier though growing 3% YoY on the back of growing orders from its other key customers, all of this happening in its Malaysian operations. Indonesia continued to make steady contributions post-change from consignment to turnkey manufacturing basis for a particular client. China also recorded lower revenue for the quarter (- 35.9% YoY) due to lower sales orders completed.
  • Net profit of only RM21.1m (-58.3% YoY, -53.5% QoQ) for the quarter was weighed by all sorts of challenges in Malaysia – 1) set-up and testing costs associated with an upcoming production line, 2) higher labour costs, also in preparation for the upcoming production line, 3) cessation in production of certain products, and 4) operational efficiencies for certain box-built assembly lines not hitting desired levels as yet. In Indonesia, production capacity was under-utilized while in China, higher raw materials and labour costs were not fully passed-through to customers owing to competitive operating environments.
  • Outperform reiterated nonetheless, as we continue to believe in its long-term investment merits despite current challenges. Any particularly pronounced share price weakness as a result of these somewhat disappointing results should be taken as an opportunity to accumulate. The Group has declared a 3rd interim dividend of 0.5sen per share to bring cumulative dividend for the year to 3.5sen, though slightly lower than the previous corresponding period’s 3.9sen.
Source: PublicInvest Research - 29 Jun 2018

Aeon Credit Service Bhd - Demand For Financing Not Slowing Down

Author:   |    Publish date: 


INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS

  • ACSM’s 1QFY19 net profit of RM99.2m came in above ours and consensus’ estimates
  • 1QFY19 earnings was considerably higher (+30.9%yoy) due to higher income from both interest and fees
  • We revised our forecast slightly upwards for FY19
  • Maintain BUY with adjusted TP of RM15.40 as we rollover our valuation to FY20
Above expectations. Aeon Credit’s 1QFY19 earnings climbed +30.9%yoy higher to RM99.2m. The result was 32.3% and 31.2% of ours and consensus estimates, which was slightly higher.
Growth in 1Q18 earnings from higher income. The increase in 1QFY18’s net profit was mainly attributable to growth in (1) interest income of RM287.0 (+%7.8%yoy), and (2) fee income of RM38.7m (+8.6%yoy). The fee income primarily comprised bad debts recovered and commission income from sale of insurance related products and loyalty programme processing fees.
Financing receivables improved. Financing receivables expanded, by +3.8%yoy to RM6.9b, leading to bigger contribution from interest income in 1QFY19. The positive earnings were also reflected by improvement in operating expenses, declining by -6.4%yoy in 1QFY19. It is notable that opex portion against revenue continued to improve, which was recorded at 50.6% against revenue, compared with 58.2% in the corresponding quarter of 1QFY18. Moving forward, we expect the ratio to remain healthy driven by its initiative for leaner opex management in the long run.
Earnings forecast adjusted. Given that the results were above our expectations, we are revising upwards our estimates for FY19. This is to take into account the overall opex downtrend whereby we are assuming a reduction of -5.7%yoy.
Valuation. We maintain our BUY recommendation on Aeon Credit with an adjusted TP of RM15.40 (from RM14.29), as we rollover our valuation to FY20. We peg the group’s BVPS of RM7.00 to PBV of 2.2x. ACSM continues to ride on its value chain transformation journey. Our optimism also stemmed from the business proactivity in enhancing its business streams via the introduction of e-wallet and e-money cards, in which we opine, will improve the customers’ brand loyalty with Aeon Credit. This will set strong foundation for its revenue base, while it continues to expand product offerings to the market.
Source: MIDF Research - 29 Jun 2018

[转贴] 燒錢幹掉星巴克?中國瑞幸咖啡的資本故事

作者:張俊寶 | 2018 / 06 / 29
文章來源:新芽 | 圖片來源:Haowei


一個是成立 47 年,在中國擁有 3300 家的星巴克 (Starbucks, SBUX-US),一個是成立不足 7 個月,高聲入場的咖啡界網紅瑞幸。線上線下大規模的廣告和近期 “碰瓷” 星巴克的舉動都讓瑞幸紅了一把。

但不止一個人表示,看到如今的瑞幸咖啡,就想起了瘋狂的 O2O 時代。作為一家成立不足 7 個月的公司,瑞幸在市場上投入了 10 億人民幣,在 11 個城市開了超過 300 家店,“資金不是問題” 這或許是瑞幸創始人錢治亞最大的底氣。

相對成熟的微信生態具有輕服務、傳播路徑短和廣大的用戶群,而外賣市場的發展使 “外送” 這件事變得日常,也推動了同城配送行業的發展,這是瑞幸能夠快速興起的土壤,但咖啡外送真的是門好生意嗎?
運營老兵操盤,不缺錢的瑞幸一路走紅

2017 年 9 月發布的《微信生態報告》顯示,平均每天有 9.02 億人登錄微信,全年直接帶動的訊息消費高達 2097 億人民幣。據億歐觀察,瑞幸咖啡的網紅之路,離不開覆蓋行銷、快速開店、供應鏈和大筆資金。

首先談覆蓋行銷。由神州運營老兵操刀,瑞幸 CMO 楊飛 “分眾廣告 + 微信裂變行銷 + 朋友圈投放” 的純熟手法讓很多人知道了這個年輕的咖啡外送品牌。通過明星代言、“買一送一” 或 “買五送五” 的優惠力度進行社交拉新,同時引導 App 下載沉澱用戶數據,再持續推出社交玩法保持用戶活躍度。

楊飛將自己的行銷手法總結為 “流量池思維”。據他描述,瑞幸採取的是線下以分眾廣告為主、線上廣告以微信 LBS 精準定位為主、在一個城市開店量覆蓋主城區,使用朋友圈廣告等形式進行品牌形象提升。他曾在 “黑馬百城計劃” 上分享了自己對行銷的三點感悟:一切產品皆要可裂變、一切創意皆要可分享、一切效果皆要可溯源。

其次是快速開店。廣告打出去,落地服務也得跟得上。如果消費者持續接收到廣告,但難以享受到服務,反而會使消費者逐漸淡忘該品牌甚至產生負面情緒。目前,瑞幸主要提供外送服務,最多的店面還是外賣店,店面類型包括:旗艦店,悠享店、快取店、外賣廚房店。

不過伴隨而來的也有一些質疑:快速開店是否經過了足夠精準的選址分析?店員培訓是否做到位?店面服務能否保證一致的標準?店面尤其外送店的衛生安全能否跟得上?有探店體驗者反映,有的瑞幸店並不算 “高大上”,反而服務冷漠。畢竟,線下開店重服務、重營運和重管理,相比其他服務體驗要求不高的行業,餐飲行業要求要多得多。

其次是供應鏈。在配送服務上,瑞幸的物流配送是由順豐來完成。眾所周知,順豐是物流配送界的 “扛霸子”,本身就帶有高價高服務體驗的屬性,無形中會拉高瑞幸的品牌格調。另一方面,咖啡外送區別於餐品外送,地點和路線相對固定,加上順豐的配送速度,僅從時間上看能相對保證咖啡的口感。

在產品上,瑞幸稱有咖啡大師加持、採取 100% 優選上等阿拉比卡豆,外送包裝相對 “高大上”。實際上,在瑞幸 “狀告” 星巴克 “壟斷” 事件的表象下,反映了供應鏈之爭,從咖啡產地、採購商、烘焙商等。瑞幸針對星巴克實際上直接戳中了後者的兩大優勢:商用不動產和供應鏈。優質的商用不動產是存量市場,合理的供應鏈把控是一個咖啡品牌能夠長久發展的原因。

最後是大筆資金。不可忽視的是,錢治亞攜 10 億人民幣入局咖啡市場是瑞幸給很多人的第一個印象 —— 財大氣粗。在瑞幸近期對外的發布會上,錢治亞稱目前仍在虧損,但還會持續燒錢。大筆資金入場以及神州的支持,無疑是瑞幸飛速發展的底氣。

楊飛也在上述分享中提到過 “後發入局的情況下,前面的對手很強大,怎樣實現流量突破?這時可以選擇一些垂直化的場景切入,在垂直化的場景裡先站穩腳跟,累積口碑,拿到第一批用戶,再慢慢殺入到了主流市場。”
瑞幸與星巴克的差距

品牌、品質和品類

不管是 “碰瓷”,還是真正的 “反壟斷”,現在看來瑞幸離星巴克還有一大段距離。

瑞幸咖啡的願景是前期 “補貼依賴” 型,後期 “品牌依賴” 型。但我們可以從星巴克身上看到的是,更多的消費者是 “品牌依賴” 用戶。瑞幸想要 “幹掉” 星巴克,顛覆咖啡市場,依然需要依靠 “品牌依賴”,並且能獲取足夠多的用戶。

線上流量越來越貴,不少品牌開始轉戰線下,不過瑞幸咖啡外送燒錢要燒到什麼時候?

外賣行業多年的戰爭告訴我們,美團外賣佔據超過 50% 的外賣市場份額後,目前仍沒有宣布盈利。誠然,咖啡的毛利要高於餐食,但因為口感的需要,咖啡相比餐食對配送環節的效率要求更高,門市密度需要好好考量。

“無限場景” 撞上 “第三空間”,咖啡還不夠 “平民化”。按照 “無限場景” 的設想,瑞幸可以依賴其店面類型,服務於更多消費場景。但可以看到的是,定位在商務人群,本身就有消費行為和消費場景局限性。

從目前的消費行為來看,年輕消費者可能更願意逛街時捧著一杯奈雪或喜茶而非瑞幸或者連咖啡。而在商務場景上,星巴克已經做了太久。更大的可能性是,未來兩者會相互補足,成為主流的那一種才是行業 No.1。目前瑞幸已經開始拓展線下場景,正面撞上 “第三空間” 的主流玩家。

摘掉 “網紅” 的帽子,瑞幸給公眾留下更多的印象,不是口感,而是感官。大部分年輕人點瑞幸咖啡,可能只是為了發朋友圈。此外,咖啡外送有繞不過的問題:成本結構和現金流。以瑞幸為例,目前瑞幸咖啡一杯的價格加上運費基本持平星巴克,但利潤卻更少。無論是順豐的物流配送、高質量的包裝還是咖啡豆的選擇,成本都居高不下,成本結構的優化,需要咖啡外送做好供應鏈的優化。目前可以看到的是,瑞幸不僅提供咖啡外送,還在提供其他餐食。

瑞幸咖啡目前的對手是星巴克嗎?或許是其他飲品外送,星巴克並沒有自己做外送。當白領走出辦公室,去的是星巴克;當白領留在辦公室,可選擇的飲品包括咖啡、茶飲、奶茶、果汁等。而在辦公場景內,除了飲品外送,目前還多了式微的無人貨架。
咖啡外送,真的是門好生意嗎?

1、星巴克還在加大開店密度

據咖啡市場調研報告顯示,我國咖啡市場規模約 700 億,速溶咖啡佔 500 億,現磨咖啡佔 200 億,整體目前正以近20%的速度迅猛增長。

中商產業研究院數據顯示,中國咖啡市場份額 Starbucks、UBC coffee、Mccafé 名列三甲,市場佔比分別為 51%、12.8% 以及 6.2%。在日前的投資者大會上,星巴克稱在中國擁有 3300 家門市,預計會以每年 600 家門市的開店速度繼續擴張。可以看到的是,當星巴克在一個城市的店面密度能夠覆蓋主要商圈和辦公區時,咖啡外送在距離上的競爭力就會減弱。

2、服務半徑影響了咖啡外送的增長性

外賣覆蓋率增長對處於城市中心的白領而言多了一個就餐選擇,但對於部分郊區辦公樓而言,是解決了痛點。據億歐了解,部分公司選址在遠離市中心的位置,四周餐館很少,基本只有外賣一種就餐選擇。咖啡外送也是這樣,附近開有星巴克、costa 等咖啡館的辦公區,咖啡外送恐怕不是必需品。這就折射出一個咖啡消費半徑的問題。

我們以辦公場景消費者為中心畫一個圈,以口感、便捷度、特色感為準線,可以看到,速溶咖啡距離消費者最近,其次是咖啡機、咖啡自動販賣機,再次是外送,最後才是咖啡門市。優於外賣的是,咖啡常規消費品類相對有限、毛利高,配送路線穩定;劣於外賣的是,相比咖啡外送有距離消費者更近、更方便的可替代品。單從選擇性來看,生存空間相對局限。從產品本身而言,保證高品質低價格,對服務平台的成本結構和供應鏈能力就提出了更高要求。

業內公認的說法是,星巴克在做外送試點時發現,當含奶類的飲品超過 15-20 分鐘送到用戶手中時,口感已經改變。當對配送時間要求更高時,目前市場上相對成熟的外賣配送隊伍就不是一個好的選擇。以瑞幸為例,讓順豐來提供配送服務,成本是高昂的。目前同城配送行業中,外賣配送團隊的成熟度最高,而一旦納入現有外賣配送體系中,勢必會降低配送體驗;如果長期採取順豐配送或者自建配送團隊,需要消費者給予足夠多的耐心。

3、探索增量市場,需更多玩家入局

從定價區間上看,瑞幸咖啡瞄準的是年輕的辦公室白領,以高於奶茶、低於星巴克的價格和類比星巴克的口感滿足這部分消費者的需求。但是實際上,美團發布的飲品報告顯示,咖啡的消費高峰期在中午和晚上,奶茶在 15 點左右的下午茶時間,果汁和鮮奶酸奶則都在晚間。

再來看下飲品行業在我國的發展階段:碳酸飲料(可口可樂等)——瓶裝水(農夫山泉等)——茶飲料(王老吉)——果蔬汁飲料(匯源)——功能飲料(紅牛),咖啡從來不是弄潮兒。

咖啡外送的火爆從模式上來說其實和外賣行業很像。以前餐廳提供打包、內用和電話叫餐店員配送服務,後來外賣平台興起,組建物流團隊,守護行業公約,滲透散而亂的線下餐飲市場,衍生了超過 20 種網路 + 餐飲的商業模式。咖啡行業也是如此,星巴克等品牌通過第三方提供外送服務,但一直沒有自己去做;連咖啡做的就是代送的事情,後來才建立自有品牌。

美團點評高級副總裁王慧文曾在 “2017億歐創新者年會上” 表示,美團外賣是因為做的是增量市場的事情,才從10萬單到如今日均千萬單。也是因為有百度外賣、餓了麼等玩家的入局,外賣行業從用戶培育走到逐漸成熟。而增量市場拓荒從來不是易事,線上旅遊走到如今也只是滲透了不到 20%。目前來看,咖啡外送想要成為一個垂直細分行業,還需要更多玩家入局。

https://www.stockfeel.com.tw/%e7%87%92%e9%8c%a2%e5%b9%b9%e6%8e%89%e6%98%9f%e5%b7%b4%e5%85%8b%ef%bc%9f%e4%b8%ad%e5%9c%8b%e7%91%9e%e5%b9%b8%e5%92%96%e5%95%a1%e7%9a%84%e8%b3%87%e6%9c%ac%e6%95%85%e4%ba%8b/


MMODE – NEW EARNING FROM CONSTRUCTION AND HIGHEST NET CASH PER SHARE COMPANY IN BURSA (Davidtslim)

Author:   |    Publish date: 


Highlights:
  1. Having net cash of RM50.2M (including short term investment but excluding prepayment of 9M for performance bond) with ZERO borrowings. Market Cap at RM57.8M at current price of 35.5 sen, huge margin of safety. If include prepayment of bond, cash equivalent is 59M.
  2. New big shareholder, Mr Ong Chee Koen bought more than 14.15% shares via off-market on 22 June 2018 at 57 sen. Total Direct Business Transaction share is 50,885,000 (31%) at 57 sen on the same day. NTA of Mmode is 46.8 sen (mostly backed by cash and some is PPE and receivables)
  3. MMODE diversified into construction business & brought in a number of projects. Before May 2017, E&J Builders was set up and soon, new management has taken over Mode. Mr Ong Chee koen has joined Mmode since 2017. He has more than 38 years of experience in construction industry.
  4. The management has completed notable projects like Calvary Convention Centre in Bukit Jalil, Casa Green in Bukit Jalil and Octagon in Ipoh. Within a year, E&J has won 3 contracts from Titijaya.
  5. Secured orderbook of RM360M (latest outstanding of orderbook is about 307M due to 53M already converted to revenue in past 2 qtr).
  6. Expected completion date of H2O project of Ara Damansara is on 31 Dec 2018. So far good progress can be monitored from a snapshot of photo in mid of June 2018.
  7. The estimated EPS for coming 12 months is about 4.2 sen. The fair value based on PE10x is 42 sen. Bear in mind Mmode is holding 50.2M cash (cash per share is 31sen excluding performance bond prepayment) with zero borrowing. With consideration of 50% of its cash, there are high margin of safety and the fair value can reach 50sen (backed by 31 sen cash per share with high earning visibility from H2O project)
  8. The risk lies in delay in the completion of projects and rising labour cost.
Performance bond, also known as a contract bond, is a surety bond issued by bank (or paid by contractor using cash) to guarantee satisfactory completion of a project by a contractor. It is a refundable deposit and normally can be refundedafter defect liability period (DLP) which is normally 12-24 months. Mmode has paid the H2O project performance bond using their cash (save interest cost) and it is parked under other receivables.
The Enterprise value (EV) of Mmode is extremely low due to its high cash level and EV / EBITDA also very low (indicate high margin of safety and what I like is not their CASH but more to its earning growth from constructionconsidering its small market capital and experiences of new big sharehoder, Mr Ong Chee keon). 
 
The above photo shows H2O project progress as per mid of June 2018 (exterior seem completed, doing interior touch up). The progress of H2O indicates their future revenue and profit in 2018. 
 
Cash Flow Analysis
At 28/02/2018
Source: Q3’18 report
With most of the earning converted to cash, total cash include prepayment of bond is RM59.4M, converted 36.4 sen per share (with Zero borrowing)

At 31/08/2017 (6 months ago, started H2O construction project in May 2017)
Source: Q2’18 report

At 31/03/2017 (12 months ago) (not yet involve in H2O, other receivable amount is 0.57M only)
Source: Q1’18 report

Prospect and Fair value for 2018 (remaining 9 months)
Let us have a look on the profit forecast (remaining 9 months of 2018) based on its construction orderbook and mobile contents segments as below:
Construction Projects
Estimated net profit margin
Net profit
H2O Ara damansara
(*about 40M outstanding)
6% (based on past 3 qtr reports average)
2.4M
RM6.64m of Earthworks and Ancillary Sitework (*about 3M outstanding)
6% (based on past 3 qtr reports average)
0.18
*= estimated from their qtr reports.
Estimated Total net profit from construction = RM2.58M (9 months)
Mobile contents from Axiata
Estimated net profit margin
Net profit
Axiata Project
32% (based on past 3 qtr reports average)
2.8M (32%)


Estimated Total net profit from Mobile contents = RM2.8M (9 months)
Estimated Total net profit from both construction & Mobile contents = RM5.38M (9 month only)
For 12 months (including Q3 of FY2018 ended 28 Feb 2018) = 5.38M + 1.517M = 6.9M
RM6.9M translated to EPS 4.2 sen.  With forward 9-month PEx of 10x, the fair value based on EPS of 4.2 of Mmode is 42 sen. Bear in mind Mmode is a holding 50.2M cash (cash per share is 31 sen excluding performance bond prepayment) with zero borrowing.
With consideration of only 50% of its cash, there are high margin of safety and the fair value can reach 50sen.
This is assuming that no contribution from their new awarded Sabah RM260M project in 2018.
For FY2019-2020
RM260.6m of award from Tititaya for 24 storey mixed commercial development in Kota Kinabalu (maybe only start in the end of 2018 (start to contribute for 2019, 2020 and 2021)
6-7%
15.6M
Risk
  1. Delay in the completion of the H2O project
  2. Rising labour cost (min wages increment in the future)
  3. Loss of single largest Axiata customer.  
If you interested on my future analysis reports, please contact me at davidlimtsi3@gmail.com
You can get my latest update on share analysis at Telegram Channel ==> https://t.me/davidshare
Disclaimer:
This writing is based on my own assumptions and estimations. It is strictly for sharing purpose, not a buy or sell call of the company.

譚新強﹕特朗普喜用「以進為退」談判策略

文章日期:2018年6月29日

【明報專訊】過去一年我不時討論關乎中美的所謂「修昔底德陷阱」問題,應總算對喚醒不少香港和國內讀者對這個陷阱的存在有些貢獻。另外,主要因為我們對「數據年代」的深入研究,加上我自己的工程科研背景,所以一早已料到半導體必定變成中、美科技競賽中的兵家必爭之地。芯片技術亦是中國整個科技鏈中最弱的一環,結果在中興事件中表露無遺。

我非常歡迎今年中央把去槓桿放在經濟目標首位,決心也非常大,從TSF(社融規模)的大幅下跌、資管新規,以至最近叫停的「棚改」等一系列措施都可以看到。我亦一早料到這個去槓桿過程必定是先苦後甜。

最近我也分析過特朗普的內政和外交政策,主要討論的是政策動機。現在全球似乎站在貿易戰邊緣,讓我再嘗試分析一下特朗普的談判手法,但先此聲明,我沒有看過他的書《The Art of the Deal》。首先指出兩件事,第一就是特朗普的貿易觀點非常膚淺,完全不懂什麼比較優勢(comparative advantage),什麼美國儲蓄率低才是真正原因,或貿赤其實幾乎是美國以自己印出來的鈔票和債券,用來遙控一大班海外廉價勞工,有些情况簡直接近是奴隸!但特朗普不懂也不管,在這一點上非常固執,已維持了數十年,不要妄想他會改變。

愛雙邊談判 惟至今仍是「交白卷」

第二點就是靠民粹主義推上台的他痛恨全球一體化和多邊協議,寧願跟個別國家雙邊談判,且以為因此美方的談判力量會較大。但事實證明這策略效用非常低,且不見得其他國家真的會輕易讓步。到現時為止,NAFTA、韓國自由貿易協議、中美貿易問題,以至美歐汽車貿易問題等,沒有一個成功達成新協議的案例。更遑論伊朗核問題、巴黎氣候協議等。的確見了金正恩一次,但距離實質協議很遠。

性格上他當然非常自大,作風獨裁。過去兩月,譬如中美兩輪談判,他派財政部長Mnuchin領導團隊,據說曾接近達成協議,但後來竟遭特朗普否決。所以如今恐怕真的可能要等到9月,美中領導人才有機會直接見面,達到某些協議的機會才較大。亦即是說不幸7月6日中美貿易戰正式開始的概率愈來愈高!

落任務時間緊迫 毫不現實

以我了解,用人方面,他的最大特色是交給下屬的每一個任務,都必同時訂下一個非常緊湊的時間死線,只數天至數周不等。這做法或對提升效率有些好處,但有些任務非常複雜,譬如中美貿易衝突,再加上保護知識產權,且牽涉到更重要的中國工業政策問題,數周的死線是絕對不現實的。

另一個特朗普風格標誌當然就是混亂和善變。他貴為總統,永遠是所有不同官員和顧問互相爭取認同的權力中心。他故意安排不同政見的人一齊工作,製造矛盾。跟中國談判,表現上派遣財政部長Mnuchin領導,但更鷹派的貿易顧問Navarro的影響力似乎也非常大。據說他經常在公眾場所(例如上次在北京)跟Mnuchin吵大鑊,粗口橫飛,但仍沒有像去年的傳訊主任Scaramucci般,因與當時策略總顧問Bannon吵架(兼爆料給記者)而被炒。過去數天,在如何加強限制中國在美國科技行業投資一事上,兩人已見極大分歧。

愛製造內部矛盾 官員口徑不一

周二有傳聞美國將採用Navarro支持的IEEPA(International Emergency Economic Powers Act)辣招來制裁中國,美股大跌,結果特朗普派Navarro出來在白宮草坪,向CNBC解畫,表情緊張,講到亂七八糟,但股市總算稍為穩定下來。到周三,又有消息指特朗普將支持Mnuchin建議較溫和的CFIUS途徑,美股開市上升,但經濟顧問Larry Kudlow,剛心臟病發痊癒上班,竟在FOX電視訪問中說美國絕不會輕易放過中國,結果美股又再大跌。

特朗普是個傳媒人,對公眾形象、每周民意調查和股巿表現都非常敏感。一方面他很清楚在貿易上立場愈強硬,尤其針對中國科技發展問題,民意支持率愈高。他的最新支持率升至47%,是上任以來最高。不止對中國強硬對民意有幫助,連攻擊盟友如德國和加拿大都似乎得到不少美國人支持。加強貿易保護主義肯定有利於共和黨在11月的中期選舉選情,雖然其實民主黨更針對中國。近日美國國會投票以400對2的超高票數比例通過針對中國的新CFIUS法案,就非常清楚。

但同時特朗普也非常在意股市的表現。去年股市好的時候,不停認叻,但近日已比較少提起。但中美貿易以至投資關係實在太密切了(我也感受到,在美國的朋友,上至大企業CEO,下至「普通」長春藤大學教授和華爾街律師,原來極多都和中國企業有生意來往,或者擔任中國企業的顧問等),每當白宮宣布一些對華制裁,不止港股和A股下跌,連美股都會被拉下來。道指從1月最高位到現在都跌了超過10%,已進入調整期,只略優於恒指的跌幅。上證和H股指數就當然更差,已跌超過20%,進入技術熊市。所以美股對貿易戰的反應將對特朗普的政策或最少採取的措施有一定影響。

天生推銷員 甜言蜜語無句真

特朗普是個天生銷售員,而且是賣二手車的那種,滿口甜言蜜語,說話沒句真。前紐約市長彭博就曾公開指罵特朗普是個地道的紐約騙子(con)!他雖然不停攻擊中國,但仍不斷神經質地自稱是習主席的最要好朋友(連他剛罵到狗血淋頭的加拿大總理Justin Trudeau也是)。一時就說中國在貿易上「強姦」了美國多年,一時又說不怪中國,反把責任推到他的前任身上。他的做法極像Tim Burton的經典黑色幽默科幻片《Mars Attacks》裏的火星人,一邊對地球人說「Don't run, I'm your friend」,一邊就用激光槍射殺他們。他更病態式和自我催眠式的不停講大話,聲稱歐盟、加拿大、墨西哥和中國等所有國家,都非常焦急在求他,所以很快就能達到協議。但事實上,到現在為止,他在所有談判上都是交白卷!

特朗普在談判上也經常用一招:「De-escalating by escalating」,可翻譯為「以進為退」,是過去前蘇聯常用的軍事策略。適用於一些對峙情况,當某一方其實想把緊張程度降低或化解時,可能由於安全或面子問題,不能單方面退讓,就反而可能需要把局勢升級,迫使對方願意進行降級談判。

早前美朝的對峙局面是個好例子。有段時間朝鮮不斷發射飛彈和核試,美方也把經濟封鎖提升至「最高壓力」,每天隔天罵戰,情况如箭在弦,一觸即發。關鍵是這些飛彈都沒有造成傷亡,經濟封鎖又未至引發饑荒,所以其實極可能雙方都在採用同樣的「以進為退」策略,目的是想把局勢降溫,結果是回到談判桌,反而開了歷史性峰會。

美朝都似採取「以進為退」策略

現在的中美貿易談判,美國是否在重施故技呢?特朗普固然想中國在貿易上和「中國製造2025」等工業政策上作出妥協,但他也應心知肚明全面的貿易戰必然兩敗俱傷,况且他更同時點起跟德國、加拿大、墨西哥等無數火頭,根本不合邏輯。所以他的做法又是故意極速提升緊張度,從開頭的向500億美元貨品打關稅,恐嚇將加到2500億美元,然後索性說到4500億美元,即總中國進口貨的九成!不止如此,還加強限制中國投資和科技出口限制。

美國明知中國不可能完全接受所有條件,消滅貿赤,又要完全開放市場,更要幾乎停止發展高科技。這也是「以進為退」的一招吧!最理想的暫時結果是要中國重返談判桌,在7月6日前盡快應承購買比之前答應的700億美元更多的美國貨,且在保護知識產權上作出一些具體諾。

這招「以進為退」有點像冷戰年代,美蘇核潛艇常玩、非常危險的「chicken」遊戲,兩潛艇高速迎頭駛向對方,斷絕通訊,然後看誰膽小,先把潛艇轉向。原意可能並非直接碰撞,但如稍有差池和誤判,後果可能非常嚴重,不止撞艇,更可引發核戰。

同樣地,特朗普一邊整天說他不想打貿易戰,但又不停對中國施壓,雙方計算稍有失誤,情况就可以變得一發不可收拾。現在已是6月底,剩下只有一星期,且沒聽聞再有安排見面談判。中方似乎亦已作出一些貿易戰的準備。人行已降了兩次準,聽說亦有計劃幫助將受影響的中小出口企業。不幸近日人幣也加速兌美元貶值約3%,是2015年以來最急,對全球股、債和匯市有極大影響。但人行每天中間定價仍稍為偏向強方,似乎無意以貶值來掀起貨幣戰。

我沒有水晶球,猜中不少宏觀發展,但也有猜錯的。我猜中恒指從2月開始,維持了4個月的N個W上落市,我本以為整固後應向上突破,但結果是向下急跌近3000點。最差的是外貿壓力徹底催毀本已脆弱的國內投資者信心。去槓桿本來已很不容易,經濟已在放緩,如再加上貿易戰,GDP肯定達不了6.5%的目標。我不認為很重要,但政府的想法不一樣,所以近日有些放水行動。但不幸此舉反令市場更恐懼,感覺事態如果不嚴重,就不需要這樣做。近日國內流動性很差,連出售質押了的股票都不容許,企業債違約不停發生。

我不知道這次調整將維持多久,但某些股和債的價值已浮現出來。近日雖有大量資金流出EM(新興市場),但有些外資對A和港股仍感興趣,從南水數據都可看到。幸運地除中國外,我們的一些MLCC投資如Semco和Yageo的表現仍非常好,資生堂等化妝品公司的長期故事亦沒有改變。

現在看來極難在7月6日前達成中美貿易協議,但願仍有一線希望。我擔心貿易戰一旦開始,兩邊民粹高漲,要停止將更困難。

(中環資產持有Semco、Yageo及資生堂的財務權益)

中環資產投資行政總裁

[譚新強 中環新譚]

https://www.mpfinance.com/fin/columnist2.php?col=1463481132098&node=1530213452274&issue=20180629

CIMB IB Research raises target price for Supermax to RM4.53

theedgemarkets.com / theedgemarkets.com
June 29, 2018 08:32 am +08

KUALA LUMPUR (June 29): CIMB IB Research has maintained its “Add” rating on Supermax Corporation Bhd (SUCB) at RM4.02 with a higher target price of RM4.53 (from RM3.75) and said it remains positive on SUCB post-meeting with its management regarding its current operations and future prospects.

In a note June 28, the research house said SUCB’s Block G plant in Kamunting, Taiping is on track to resume production post full revamp works by end-1QFY19 (3Q18).

CIMB Research said this will grow its capacity 6% to 23.7 billion pieces per annum.

“SUCB is set to be the first Malaysian brand to export contact lenses to Japan. It recently received product licence for its contact lenses from the Japan government.

“We expect sequentially stronger quarters ahead from: i) aggressive capacity expansion plans, ii) higher margins from better efficiencies, and iii) stronger US$/RM.

“Maintain Add, with higher target price of RM4.53 (18.4x CY19F P/E),” it said.

Thursday, June 28, 2018

美国的西洋参中国人吃了几百年 西洋参有那么神吗(健康面面观)



  本报驻美国特约记者 方舟子

  编者按:现在国内药店几乎家家都卖西洋参,而且价格不菲。有许多人在服用西洋参,但对西洋参又有多少了解呢?有趣的是,美国是出产西洋参最多的国家,但美国人并不吃,而是卖到了“崇拜”人参的东亚和中国。当然这种差别很大程度上是历史和文化因素造成的,但方舟子先生的文章也从另一个角度说明,对人参药用价值的科学认定是必需的。
  提起西洋参,要先从它同属不同种的兄弟中国人参说起。人参的最早记载见于汉代的纬书和《神农本草经》,这显然是由于人参像人形而引起神秘的联想,把它当成神草,以为它“久服轻身延年”。此后的一千年间,人参虽也充当药用,但主要是一种送礼、进贡的土特产。直到晚明,人参才突然获得了“百草之王”、“众药之首”的至高无上的地位。按《本草纲目》的说法,人参几乎就是包治百病的神药。人参由此身价百倍,在中原地带很快就被挖得绝种,后只在东北的深山老林中还可找到,以致现在人们一提起人参,就以为是东北长白山特产,不知道在古代,山西上党的人参才被视为佳品。
  西洋参在18世纪就登陆中国
  到了清朝,国人对人参的狂热有增无减,每年有数万人到长白山采参,至清末,野生人参已难得一见。现在,野生人参被国家定为一级保护植物,已濒于灭绝。中国市场上见到的价格惊人的“野参”,或者是假冒的,或者是从俄罗斯进口的。据估计,按现在的采挖速度,再过几年野生人参也将在俄罗斯灭绝。
  正是在人参就要绝迹,中国人在寻找其替代品时,西洋参便开始在中国登陆。1716年,法国传教士拉菲托在加拿大魁北克发现了像中国人参的西洋参。其实大多数北美印第安部落很早就已把西洋参当药用,主要用于治疗头疼、创伤、不孕等,没有把它当成灵丹妙药。
  拉菲托的“发现”让精明的法国商人意识到他们有了一种可以从中国人身上牟取暴利的宝贝。1718年,一家法国公司把西洋参出口到中国,大受中国人欢迎,从此开始了西洋参的国际贸易。第一次中美之间的直接贸易也是西洋参贸易,1784年2月,“中国皇后”号从纽约出发,满载着242箱约30吨西洋参驶往中国。据载,18世纪后期,每年大约有70吨西洋参从美国运往中国。
  北美大地也由此出现了“挖参热”。在当时,西洋参在美国北方各州的森林中随处可见,但是再多也经不住这样狂挖滥采。到19世纪末,野生西洋参的供应实际上已结束,人工栽培已被广泛采用。
  美国产西洋参最多,美国人却不怎么认西洋参
  野生西洋参和栽培西洋参的价格可相差数十倍。野生参每磅高达五六百美元,田地栽培参每磅仅二三十美元。为了避免野生西洋参灭绝,美国政府也开始对野生参的采集进行严格管理。
  据美国农业部统计,从1967年到1982年,西洋参每年的出口量平均增长
  约9%。自1983年起,出口量开始大幅度上升,西洋参成为美国的一种主要出口产品,每年出口量平均增长超过25%。1994年出口西洋参237万磅,1992年的贸易额高达1.04亿美元。但从1994年起,由于中国引种西洋参获得成功和后来的亚洲金融危机,美国西洋参的出口受到影响。据美国农业部不久前发布的资料,在2001年,美国西洋参出口额为2514万美元,90%以上出口到东亚,特别是香港。
  美国是西洋参的最大产出国,有25个州出产西洋参,野生参以肯塔基州产量最高,栽培参以威斯康星州产量最高,绝大部分的西洋参产自威斯康星。
  这些西洋参基本上都供出口,留在国内销售的也以卖给华人为主。
  近年来由于出口不景气,西洋参商人也试图开拓美国本地市场,开始宣传西洋参的神奇作用,主要声称它能增强人的精力,是“能量刺激剂”。在药店、超市也有西洋参制剂,但销量很小。由于美国食品与药物管理局至今未认可西洋参(以及人参)有任何医疗作用,因此西洋参制剂都是作为保健食品销售的。
  西洋参是否有药效已争论了一个世纪
  西方医学界对西洋参和人参是否有医学价值以及有什么样的医疗作用仍存在争议。许多研究者只是简单地把中医关于参疗效的说法视为神话或迷信,另有些人则试图研究这些说法是否有科学依据。如果参真的有药理作用的话,是因为它含有某种活性物质。
  参根主要是由碳水化合物组成的(这些构成了参的甜味),与胡萝卜根差不多。从参中提取出来的人参炔醇与从胡萝卜中提取出来的胡萝卜毒素(一种神经毒素)完全相同。参根还含有其他多种有生物活性的化合物,在提取、浓缩后表现出药性,但含量极低,不太可能有重要的作用。参根的化学成分中,有一小部分(不到5%)属于皂甙类,构成了参的苦味。这类化学物质在多种草药、食物(例如橄榄、金瓜、大豆)中也能找到。世界各国的研究人员已花费了几十年的时间试图分离和鉴定出各种人参皂甙,目前已从中国人参中鉴定出了34种,现在一般认为参的独特活性物质便是其中的皂甙类物质。
  人参皂甙主要集中在参根的外层,根须中的含量又比主根高得多,是其数倍,这与传统上认为参根内部比外层、主根比根须药性强的看法恰好相反。而且,参叶、花蕾、果肉中人参皂甙的含量比根部高得多,如果人参皂甙真的是人参的活性物质的话,传统上只用参根入药真的可说是舍本逐末了。而且传统的说法未必可靠,甚至可能有错误。如中医关于人参性温、西洋参性凉的说法就是源于对二者产地的误会。中医认为产于寒冷地区的东西性温,产于温暖地区的东西性凉,西洋参最早是从广州进口的,因此被当时的中医误认为是南方特产,将其定为性凉药物。实际上西洋参主要产于加拿大和美国北部,纬度与中国人参产地相当。
  现在也有一些研究者声称发现了人参、西洋参有多种药理作用,对中枢神经系统、心血管系统、免疫系统、内分泌系统都有影响,能提高体力和脑力劳动者的能力,降低疲劳度,防治高血压、冠心病、心绞痛、癌症、糖尿病等等现代社会的种种危险疾病。有一些动物实验、临床试验支持这些说法,另外的一些研究则未能加以证实。现代医学界对人参、西洋参是否有药效已争论了一个世纪,今后可能还会争论下去。▲






http://www.people.com.cn/GB/paper68/8280/780357.html

The sooner you start to apply this pattern, the better…

Published by Andrea Unger on July 10, 2012

We are traders, we look for trends, no matter how long, long enough to ride them and take some money out of the markets, it looks easy… well it isn’t.

Reading Technical Analysis books and papers we often find strong trend indicators in defined moves and clear extensions, so we may get confused and consider those are the chart patterns we have to look for to enter the market.

Fig. 1: Here a candle which is often defined as a strong long signal

A candle with a clearly defined body may well identify a strong will to trend in the direction the prices showed; but the truth is that this is not an immediate indication to enter the market.


In fact markets are like human beings, they decide after having had indecision, they run after having had a rest.

To see if actually a message of indecision is a better information then strong decision let’s test a very simple system with different setups.

The action we will take in our system is, on daily bars, to buy the breakout of yesterday’s high and to exit the position on close.

The first setup will have no particular conditions, it will buy the breakout regardless of any setup.

In the picture below you can see some examples of trade on Gold Future

Fig. 2: Examples on Gold Future, trades are opened at breakout of previous high and closed at the end of the day

We can test this system on a basket of instruments:
Crude Oil Future
British Pound Future
Gold Future
Heating Oil Future
Sugar Future
Corn Future
Wheat Future
Bund Future
EuroFX Future
Dax Future
Coffee Future
Silver Future
10 yrs T-Notes
Australian Dollar Future
Japanese Yen Future
Copper Future
Natural Gas Future
30 yrs T-Bond
Soybeans Future

The tests are run without considering slippage and commissions as the purpose is not to build a winning system but to compare market behavior.

The entry without particular constraints shows to be profitable on most markets but there are also some where losses are shown:

Fig. 3: Silver shows to be the best performing instrument for this approach while Japanese Yen Future is the one where we see the highest losses

Here is the Performance Report and the Equity Line of all these markets together:


Fig. 4 : Merged Performance Report, there are gains but the drawdown is certainly too high and the average trade of only 14 USD is absolutely not tradable



Fig. 5: The Equity Line is not vey nice

Learn How To Create Trading Systems That Make Profits

We can also have a more detailed look at the best and worst report:


Fig. 6: Silver shows interesting profits using this simple method



Fig. 7 : The Equity Line is in any case not the best that could be desired



Fig. 8. Japanese Yen is definitively losing with the proposed entries


Fig. 9 : A bad Equity Line witnesses what we saw in the report

Now we go into our demonstration and we consider the assumption that it might well be true that candles like the one shown in Figure 1 indicate a trend; but our idea is that after such a day there is not immediately much left, this means we’d prefer to follow our breakout only after days where indecision is shown, that is, days where the distance between open and close is much less then the whole range.

Fig. 10: a day as this shows indecision, the prices opened at a determined level, moved up and down but ended up to close not far from the open

The first setup we can test is to place trades only if the distance between open and close of the day before, is less then 50% of the whole range. Here are the results on the basket of instruments we chose for our tests:




Fig. 11: to Trade only after a day with indecision shows much better results on al the instruments we are testing


And here is the Performance Report and the Equity Curve



Fig. 12: the number of trades reduced to one half but the profits are more then double!



Fig. 13: also the Equity Line has a much better shape

The results are pretty interesting, to demonstrate that filtering trades with an indecision pattern we can also go to extreme levels where the difference between open and close of the day is less then 25% of the whole range and take trades only in this case.

Here are Performance Report and Equity Curve




Fig. 14: we are losing one third of performance but looking at the average trade and at the drawdown we notice a real improvement in the quality of these results



Fig. 15: The Equity Line shows a constant growth

Conclusions

A very simple rule that tries to ride an intraday trend leads to positive results. The intraday trends we are looking for are anyway more effective after days where the market showed indecision, filtering trades entering only after indecision (measured with the ratio between the body and the range of the candle) leads to better and more robust results.

https://blog.ungeracademy.com/2012/07/10/the-sooner-you-start-to-apply-this-pattern-the-better/

Radiant Globaltech eyes RM29.5m from IPO

Erika Benjamin / theedgemarkets.com
June 28, 2018 12:02 pm +08

KUALA LUMPUR (June 28): Retail technology solutions provider Radiant Globaltech Bhd, which is en route to list on the ACE Market of Bursa Malaysia on July 24, aims to raise RM29.5 million from the its initial public offering (IPO).

Radiant Globaltech's IPO entails a public issue of 128.1 million new shares representing 24.4% of the group's enlarged issued share capital, at an issue price of 23 sen per share.

At the prospectus launch today, Radiant Globaltech managing director Paul Yap Ban Foo said about RM11.6 million of the proceeds from the IPO would be used to support business and capital expansion.

"RM3 million would be allocated for the expansion of the group's retail software business, while RM4.8 million would be for working capital," added Yap.

Meanwhile, RM6.6 million will be slated for the repayment of bank borrowings with the remaining RM3.5 million for listing expenses.

In 2017, Radiant Globaltech captured 20% market share of Malaysia's retail technology solutions industry worth RM404.2 million.

Additionally, after its listing, the group will continue its expansion to the Indonesian market in the near term.

"We plan to distribute our retail hardware products and implement our retail management software services to retailers in Indonesia," said Yap.

Yap believes that the future of Radiant Globaltech is bright and exciting and with the full support of its IPO, the group will reach greater heights.

Banking, aviation stocks remain favourites for foreign funds, says MIDF Research

Tan Xue Ying / theedgemarkets.com
June 28, 2018 11:35 am +08

KUALA LUMPUR (June 28): Malaysian banking and aviation stocks were among the favourites for foreign funds, according to MIDF Amanah Investment Bank Bhd Research.

In a strategy note today, the research house said among the favourites, Public Bank Bhd, Malayan Banking Bhd and BIMB Holdings Bhd saw net inflows amounting to RM673.1 million, RM250,000 and RM1.3 million respectively from January 2018 to mid-June 2018.

It added that home mortgages still led the way with an 8.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in April 2018, contributing 33.1% of loans to the banking system, indicating a steady demand for housing and the associated.

Meanwhile, it said aviation related stocks such as AirAsia Group Bhd and Malaysia Airports Holdings Bhd (MAHB) experienced the second and fourth highest inflow of RM449 million and RM330.2 million respectively during the period under review, especially with MAHB's inclusion in the FBMKLCI index in mid-June and AirAsia in the index's reserve list.

Commenting on the banking sector, the research house said such prevailing environment has bode well for property developers such as S P Setia Bhd, which saw a net foreign inflow of RM148.4 million during the same period under review.

It said loan growth is expected to be better at +6% y-o-y in 2018 versus 2017 level based on current of loans applied and approvals which will provide a steady loans pipeline.

Under oil and gas (O&G) related activities, Petronas Dagangan Bhd was a beneficiary of inflows partly premised on growth in both its commercial segment and liquefied petroleum gas segment.

Among glove players, Top Glove Corp Bhd recorded the highest net foreign inflow among the major glove players worth RM207 million between January 2018 and mid-June 2018, with strong demand from Asian emerging markets, Eastern Europe and Latin America.

MIDF Research said Genting Bhd recorded a net inflow of RM332.1 million between January 2018 and mid-June 2018, buoyed by improving non-core businesses such as power and O&G.

On the other end of the spectrum, the largest outflow during the period was seen in utilities stock Tenaga Nasional Bhd, amounting to RM2.6 billion. YTL Corp Bhd and YTL Power International Bhd followed with attrition worth RM1.38 billion and RM315.3 million respectively.

"It came to no surprise that global funds withdrew from construction stocks such as Gamuda Bhd and IJM Corp Bhd to a tune of -RM285.8 million and -RM398.7 million (respectively)," said the research firm, as packages under big ticket projects, such as the East Coast Railway Link, could face a cost of revision.

In total, MIDF Research said in spite of the recent trend of foreign selling, Malaysia still recorded the highest cumulative inflow since January 2017 in the region.

This is compared with the other three Southeast Asian markets the research firm tracks, namely the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia.

The research firm said there has been RM4.21 billion, or US$826.6 million, net of cumulative inflow into Malaysian equities since January 2017.

However, so far this year, Malaysia has only recorded 11 weeks of outflows, still below last year which saw a total of 17 weeks of attrition, it added.

The total net outflow from January 2018 to mid-June 2018 amounted to approximately RM7.61 billion.

What IS a Super Trader? by Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.

Feature Article
by Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.
Click here to resolve formatting problems



What is a Super Trader? The answer really gets to the heart of what the Van Tharp Institute is all about. Our mission is “transformation through a trading metaphor.” And if you believe that you create your entire experience, or at least the meaning you give to that experience, then you must personally transform to become a Super Trader at some level.

Before I answer the question, I want to talk about the roles with which I like to identify.

First, I am a modeler. This means that I find people who excel. I find out what they do in common and then teach that to other people. There are probably at least five different NLP methods for how to model. Each will lead to a different model for success. How do you even know which one to use? My primary selection criterion is usefulness and my definition of that is that usefulness brings the most value to each person and to the world as a whole. If it just brings you value and it hurts everyone else, then it’s probably not that useful and there may be something missing from one’s meaning of value. For example, if your definition of value was “I want to have all of the money in the world,” then that would probably hurt about 7 billion other people.

Though modeling I find the common tasks necessary to do what I’m modeling (i.e., the tasks of trading) and then I need to find the beliefs, mental states, and mental strategies that support doing those tasks at a superior level. Doing this for traders leads to what I’d call the fundamentals of trading success and includes a set of useful beliefs that I call Tharp Think. You can find many of the Tharp Think beliefs in my book Trading Beyond the Matrix.

My second major role is that of a coach. A coach finds talented people, teaches them the fundamentals, and then makes sure that they are following those fundamentals. For example, the Green Bay Packers (a professional American football team) just fired their defensive coordinator. The previous one had been considered a defensive genius but with time, his defenses became predictable, his players lacked fire, and the net result was that the Packers went from having one of the top defenses in the league to having one of the worst. In 2017, the team had one of the worst pass defenses in the league. The Packers had been blaming the poor performance on personnel so they refused to resign their top cornerbacks but those people would sign with other teams and earn Pro-Bowl status the year after they left the Packers. Obviously, something was wrong. The new defensive coordinator will run the same basic defenses but he will make sure that other teams cannot predict what he will do, that his players are highly motivated, performing at their best, and that they are used in such a way that they can perform at their best. That’s actually a pretty good metaphor for what a coach does.

Finally, my third major role is what I call a transformational artist. My definition of that is I have to get people to understand that their map of the world controls their experience and their outcomes and that their map will never represent reality – it just represents reality for the individual.The more useful the map is; the more varied the map is; and the more flexible the map is, the more likely a person will be to perform at a super level or a genius level. So the secret of trading success is about changing yourself and your level of awareness of how you create your own experience. To help you get there, I have to be able to teach you to 1) look inside and become aware of how you are producing your results and 2) to get you to understand that your map of the world is all made up and then projected onto the world. Thus, by becoming more aware of your map and making it more useful, you will change everything about your experience – which will in turn produce super results.

My highest value in life used to be to help others transform, however, after working a long time in the field I realized that I could only help others transform to the extent that I had transformed myself. As a result, my fourth major role is to transform myself and continue to evolve so that I can take others with me on the journey. And my journey of transformations has continued to accelerate to the point of my life becoming magical:
  • I have an incredible Internal Guidance (See Chapter 10 of Trading Beyond the Matrix); 
  • I am fairly quiet inside which means that I’m aware of what’s going on and I can listen to my Internal Guidance; 
  • One of the first signs of an awake person is that they don’t focus on problems, they focus on solutions and I seldom have what I used to call problems. 
  • And finally, my life is rather magical meaning that I pretty much create what I want in my life by just putting my awareness on it
Most important, however, is that I’ve dedicated the rest of my life to helping others get the same thing. And if that happens for you as a trader, then, in my opinion, you are a Super Trader.

Core Ideas:

One of the key Tharp Think principles is that you cannot trade the market – you can only trade your beliefs about the market. In fact, the markets are a nominalization – a process that we have turned into a noun to the point that we consider it real. But it’s not a noun, it's just a process. As a result, you have to understand your beliefs about the market and whether or not they are useful. In addition, you have to realize that your beliefs are made up; that no belief is 100% useful but just useful within a small or wide context; and that every word that you use in a belief has a rather unique meaning for you.

As an example, one belief that is useful on this planet is that if you jump off of a twenty story building you will probably make a mess on the pavement below. I give this example because some of you might say, “No, that’s a fact, not a belief.” But there are actually some exceptions to that “fact” or truth even though they are rare and those people who survived probably broke a lot of bones in the process. My point is that there is a context in which that belief is useful — living on a planet that’s big enough to have a fairly substantial amount of gravity.

That belief would not be useful on a smaller body in space like the moon and it certainly would not apply at all to someone on a space station. If you jump off something in space that is say 500 feet tall, you might go up rather than down.

Remember also that most words that you use in a belief probably have a somewhat unique meaning to you. Most men might have the belief “I am tough.” But if twenty men have that belief, then each of them probably has a slightly or very different meaning for the word “tough.” For some, tough might mean resilient. For others, it might mean that they are strong and somewhat rigid. For others it might mean that they fight a lot and usually win. So just the meaning of the word “tough” can change whether or not the belief is useful and the context in which it is useful. Understanding all of this is simply a matter of awareness.

With those fundamentals in mind, let’s take a look at what Super Trader might mean.

Someone recently told me that I don’t produce Super Traders. I said that the term Super Trader means different things to different people and the person said: “no, it’s the commonly accepted definition of things.” His response demonstrated that he gave Super Trader a meaning that he interpreted was commonly held and that he didn’t realize everyone gives their own meaning to terms.

Let’s look at some ideas that different people have about being a Super Trader and how they are not necessarily accurate or useful. My examples may provide you with a major shift in your awareness.

First, a Super Trader might be someone who found a huge edge in the market at one point and did everything to capitalize on it. For example, what if you were one of the first people ever to computerize a trend following system? Let’s say you were early enough in the markets that your trend following algorithms were programmed in assembly language. What if you also fully understood the meaning of the principle: “Cut your losses short and let your profits run?” And what if you also understood market’s money position sizing strategies? Think about it. You are the only person doing all of that and you are trading commodities at the start of an era with huge trends in commodities. You also raised $5,000 and you throw that whole amount at your system. Let’s say the system lost three times and each time, it took a lot of work to raise another $5,000. But on the fourth time, the trade won and you turned $5,000 into millions of dollars. Let’s go on to say that eventually you were so successful that your account dominated the brokerage company you traded through.

Does that sound like anyone you know about? It’s an example of what most people would consider to be a Super Trader. That only happened, however, because 1) he understood certain key principles of success, 2) he had a huge edge that most people didn’t have, and 3) he was willing to take big risks (relative to his capital) to jumpstart the system.

In the Peak Performance 101 workshop, we play a trading game that has several objectives: to press your emotional buttons, to make you aware of the impact of objectives, to help you understand the power of position sizing strategies and big R-multiples; and to help you become aware of some of your issues. The SQN® of the trading system for the game is pretty terrible and people say, “I’d never trade like this in real life.” They might even say the game is stupid but the game offers players a huge edge – one that would bankrupt any casino. To win the game in the workshop, people have to find that edge and exploit it.

Such edges occur in the markets all the time. Right now there is a huge edge in cryptoassets. Blockchain, the technology behind cryptoassets is revolutionary and it’s leading a revolution that will eventually shake up the very core of the institutions of power in the world. We are doing everything we can to help people in our Super Trader program become aware of this edge and to be able to capitalize on it before Big Money takes it over.

Edges, however, only have a limited time frame. Being a computerized trend follower who understands market’s money position sizing strategies and who understands key rules of trading success is no longer a big edge. It still exists but it's not a super edge. Cryptoassets, however, offer a super edge right now and will continue to until they are widely adopted. Think about it, if you really understand how to capitalize on an investment that could easily go up 100 fold per year (i.e., turn $1 into $100) for the next five years, would that make you a Super Trader? Perhaps or perhaps not.

Let’s take another example of what someone might believe a Super Trader looks like. During the late 1990s, day trading became a big fad. The first day trading books sold hundreds of thousands of copies. There were professional day trading organizations. Each person in the organization acted as their own broker and basically became a market maker for the stock in which they elected to specialize. These professional day traders often could only trade one stock because they had to know it inside out. They could only trade about $25,000 on margin (which was quite large then) because if they traded more, they’d impact the stock price too much and they’d lose their edge. Let’s say such a person made 100% per month on their account, but they could only trade about $25,000 so at the end of the month they’d have to take everything out but about $25,000. Now they are making 100% per month or as much as $300,000 per year. But does that make them a Super Trader? They have a $300,000 income ceiling. Does that make them a Super Trader? Was their edge a function of the trading rules at the time (which regularly change) and of the market type? What if rule changes toward the end of 1999 took away their edge and they subsequently lost all of their money?

These people had the advantage of trading during a huge bull volatile market during the late 1990s. Certain market types are very easy to make money in and bull volatile is one of them. One of our core teachings is that it’s easy to design a system that works in any one market type, but it's insane to expect that system to work in all market types. For these day traders, the market type changed but many of them did not change what they were doing. Understanding yourself, your system, and market type is one of the cornerstones of success. But is someone who is able to make a lot of money during a particular market type a Super Trader?

I once had someone tell me that his currency trading system for the US Dollar had an SQN® 100 score of over 15. Once he realized what that meant, he changed his position sizing strategy and pretty quickly turned $20,000 into more than a million dollars. He thanked me profusely for the insights I had given him in the Definitive Guide to Position Sizing Strategies book, however, is he a Super Trader? I’m sure that the SQN score of that system was a function of the market type and that his window of opportunity was very narrow. Further, if he kept trading the system when the market type changed, he probably would have lost everything he had gained.

I could give numerous examples of famous traders who found a huge edge in the markets in a limited window time frame and made a killing.
  • John Templeton shorted the dotcoms in 1999. 
  • Few people understood the situation that big money had gotten themselves into and started shorting subprime mortgages. Some of these people lost their shirts on the shorts because big money resisted the real valuation of the instruments they had created for some time and the early shorts couldn’t take the pressure. Others who followed the same strategy in 2008 made a killing. 
  • The list could go on and on. 
But are these people Super Traders? What if this edge only lasts for six months? What if they lose all of their money after the edge is over? Are they a Super Trader then?

What if being a Super Trader is seeing an edge, understanding the core principles of trading success, being psychologically clear enough to take advantage of that edge, and most importantly, being able to do it over and over again? Would that be a Super Trader?

Let’s look at another example of what I might consider a Super Trader. What if you needed $5,000 per month to live on? What if you could make $10,000 a month trading two hours a day and the rest of your time you could spend doing whatever you like – perhaps you spend your time having fun or helping others lift themselves up in life. Is that a Super Trader? You only make $120,000 per year trading!

I worked with someone around 1997 and connected him to his internal guidance in a two-day consulting session. (One of my goals in the Super Trader program is to make such a connection for everyone.) He started to follow his Internal Guidance and I would say he became enlightened. Furthermore, his internal guidance taught him how to trade. In 11 years, he grew his retirement plan from about a million dollars to the size of a small hedge fund. His Internal Guidance told him to stop trading around the end of 2007. Is he a Super Trader?

What if you are hugely successful trader at a professional firm? Let’s say you’ve risen through the ranks to become the CEO of one of the ten largest investment banks in the world. Is that person a Super Trader? Suddenly you have everything that money can buy and you realize that it doesn’t bring you happiness and you become depressed.

Now, what if that same person enrolls in our program and transforms himself so that he is constantly happy for no reason. Is that person now a Super Trader? Let’s say that person decides not to trade anymore but just to pursue what brings him joy. Does that make him “not” a Super Trader?

How about another example? Let’s take a person who manages a billion dollars in funds and who consistently outperforms the market by 1-2% each year. This out performance makes him an outstanding money manager. He is unhappy, however, working for a big institution so he joins our Super Trader program to improve himself and starts trading on his own. Pretty soon he becomes happy for no reason. He has enough passive income that he no longer needs to work. Does that make him a Super Trader? What if he realizes that the paradigm we teach in Peak 101 to increase your efficiency as a trader is now a way that he can manufacture R. He goes back to managing a big portfolio but he’s now transformed his consciousness and he is continually happy. He was a good trader before but now he is happy for no reason and he understands how to manufacture R. Is he now a Super Trader?

Okay, how about people who are making a six -figure salary in their careers but they are unhappy. Perhaps they are in sales or the medical field – they make a lot of money, but they are unhappy. Perhaps they don’t even understand they are unhappy, they just know they want a change, something better. They think that if they were just free of their job and could make a living trading, they’d be happy or have freedom. When these people join the Super Trader program, they start to transform themselves and many find themselves happy for no reason. They notice they become happy as a doctor or happy as a salesman. Their goal was to trade and be happy but now they are happy as a doctor or salesman and see little reason to pursue a career change. Are these people Super Traders? They’ve certainly traded an unhappy life for a happy one.

How about someone who goes through our Super Trader program and also spends six months in India meditating? They come back and develop a day trading process in just a few hours in the morning session for one or two stocks by which they can make enough money to live on comfortably. The person is unable to talk about how they trade because there is no thought; it’s just automatic. Now that person doesn’t work on making millions of dollars in the market but instead, they decide to teach monks and nuns how to trade from a high level of consciousness. Is such a person Super Trader?

One of the reasons I’ve taken you through these examples as an exercise is to demonstrate that the word Super Trader is a nominalization. It refers to a verb (an ongoing process) that we have turned it into a noun as if it were a thing. When you invent something that doesn’t really exist and you treat an ongoing process is as a thing, then the word or term for the nominalization can have many, many meanings. When you realize that point, then your awareness has gone up and you are on your way to transformation.

When you realize that it’s you who are making it all up, then you can ask yourself, “Is my map of the world useful?” If it’s not useful, then you can ask, “How can I make it richer? How can I make it more useful?” This process simply extends the exercise we’ve just gone through. Just by realizing that you make it all up and that you can create something much more useful, you can increase your level of awareness and create a state of genius where you can transform your reality.

As you can probably tell from this article, I'm passionate about this program. I have seen such amazing results from the people who go through it. That's why I've opened up a few payment options that could help you join. These discounts are available to anyone who has already taken a Peak Performance 101 workshops in the last two years. If you have not taken a Peak 101 yet (an entry requirement for admission), the July event is the last chance you have to apply and get last years pricing on the Super Trader Program. Be sure to read the material above this article for the details. To read about the Super Trader Program, click here.

About the Author: Trading coach, and author, Dr. Van K. Tharp is widely recognized for his best-selling books and his outstanding Peak Performance Home Study program - a highly regarded classic that is suitable for all levels of traders and investors. You can learn more about Van Tharp www.vantharp.com.

http://newsletter.vantharp.com/public/viewmessage/html/10920/kab1b8m99vb8afeuqtxyyl3bhgfpl/0bd903eb00000000000000000000001234ba

新马来西亚不伤经济 全年2.8%財赤可达標

(吉隆坡27日讯)隨著希盟执政迎来「新马来西亚」,分析员认为,我国经济在下半年不会受到太大的影响,而且全年有望达到2.8%的財政赤字目標。

不过,美国引爆的贸易爭端,使到丰隆投行將大马今年的经济成长预测,稍微下调0.1个百分点,至5.2%。

丰隆投行分析员指出,大马首季的財政赤字占国內生產总值(GDP)的3.3%,而且新政府將消费税(GST)调降至0%,同时也恢復汽油津贴等利民措施,让市场担忧政府的財政状况;不过,该分析员仍看好大马今年能达到2.8%的財政赤字目標。

他解释说,希盟政府將消费税率调至0%,以及固定汽油价格,將提振短期消费。

「虽然政府会因此失去210亿令吉的收入,不过,销售服务税(SST)重新上路、官联公司派发更高的股息、石油收入增加、重新检討或展延总值100亿令吉的项目,以及政府削减行政开销,可弥补取消消费税和汽油津贴的缺口,所以2.8%的財政赤字有望达標。」

他重申,在销售服务税于9月份正式上路之前的税务空窗期,预计將提振国內消费。因此,他预计,下半年的消费將按年增长8.5%。

「事实上,消费情绪在首季已经开始有復苏的跡象,消费者情绪指数(CSI)已达到91点,虽然仍低于100点荣枯水平,不过已经是自2015年4月消费税开跑以来的最高水平。」

同时,丰隆投行分析员指出,「新马来西亚」诞生,预期將带来5大转变:

一、大型基建工程相继被取消或重新检討,將影响本地建筑合约的颁发量;

二、希盟政府將会推行更多税收,以提高收入;

三、不少前朝政府的合同將会保留;

四、官联公司会经歷重组;

五、接下来的合约竞標过程將会更透明化。



短期股市看淡

无论如何,该分析员认为,由于希盟政府的亲民政策及改革仍在进行中,所以短期股市走势不容乐观。

与此同时,全球掀起贸易战,更是使股市蒙上阴影。不过,丰隆投行分析员仍维持综指年终目標在1770点。

他称,综指在年初节节攀升,然而,外资在希盟胜选后,开始净卖马股。这段期间全球股市也相当动盪,加剧外资窜逃的情况。

儘管如此,外资目前持有马股的比例为24.1%,仍高于过去平均水平23.1%。

与此同时,瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)分析员指出,在外资持续卖出马股后,综指的本益比已经跌穿歷史平均水平16倍,使一些股项的估值显得更有吸引力。

银行种植博彩带动 综指盈利將成长6%

瑞士信贷分析员表示,目前股价对账面价值(P/B)低于全球金融风暴时期的股项,包括乌芝玛控股(UZMA,7250,主板贸服股)、马星集团(MAHSING,8583,主板產业股)、实达集团(SPSETIA,8664,主板產业股)、金务大(GAMUDA,5398,主板建筑股)、联昌国际(CIMB,1023,主板金融股)、亚洲航空(AIRASIA,5099,主板贸服股)、英美烟草(BAT,4162,主板消费股)、云顶(GENTING,3182,主板贸服股)、云顶大马(GENM,4715,主板贸服股)和大眾银行(PBBANK,1295,主板金融股)。

至于週息率高过5%的股项,则包括Astro大马(ASTRO,6399,主板贸服股)、马拉卡(MALAKOF,5264,主板贸服股)、马银行(MAYBANK,1155,主板金融股)、马电讯(TM,4863,主板贸服股)、联昌国际、英美烟草、马星集团和实达集团。

他认为,政府提出如何改善財政状况和提振经济成长、妥善处理与新加坡和中国的外交关係、解决官联公司的管理层问题以及拍板定案大型基建工程,將可提振市场的投资情绪。

另一方面,丰隆投行分析员预计综指今年盈利成长將达到6%,主要由银行、种植和博彩业带动。不过电讯、油气和电力领域预计將成为拖累者。

虽然令吉匯率在年初表现强劲,兑美元一度攀升至3.8710令吉。

不过,隨著美国10年期国债收益率飆涨、美联储將加速升息以及投资者对贸易战的担忧,导致资金从大马资本市场急速外流。

该分析员预测今年的令吉兑美元匯率介于3.90至4.10之间。

http://www.orientaldaily.com.my/s/248974#

海鸥 无税期推动增长

2018年6月28日
分析:JF APEX证券

目标价:6.41令吉

最新进展:

海鸥(HAIO,7668,主板贸服股)截至4月底,全年净利涨25.8%,达7482万8000令吉。

行家建议:

海鸥2018财年净利逊于我们和市场预期,分别占了全年预测的84%和87%比重。

虽然集团末季业绩短期表现不好,但海鸥可在2019财年首季重现增长动力,特别是受惠于从6月1日零消费税开始,为期3个月的“免税期”。

基本上,我们保持正面,相信该集团现财年录得更高营业额和赚幅。因为预测时尚品牌销售增加,将推动多层行销业务(MLM)业务表现;借助数字营销平台发展MLM生态系统,将继续加强营运效率和赚幅;还有高档补品和中国茶将推动批发业务及取得更高的经常销售。

此外,零售业务方面,集团将会与霸市合作,开设更多专柜和开发更多自家品牌产品,提高赚幅。

除了零消费税率,推新产品也会带动盈利。因此维持2019财年财测年涨45.6%,并预测2020财年净利增6.8%,达1亿1720万令吉。