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Thursday, May 31, 2018

零GST提振车贷復甦 大眾马银行大贏家

Author: moneyKing | Publish Date: 24 May 2018, 9:57 AM

財经 最后更新 2018年05月23日 21时06分

(吉隆坡23日讯)隨著消费税將从6月1日起降至0%,分析员预期,消费开销將获得提振,从而有望带动车贷于第3季开始復甦,而马银行(MAYBANK,1155,主板金融股)和大眾银行(PBBANK,1295,主板金融股)相信是最大的受惠者。

银行股隨大市下跌

无论如何,在联昌国际(CIMB,1023,主板金融股)领跌下,今天银行股跟隨大市走跌,丰隆银行(HLBANK,5819,主板金融股)和伊斯兰银行(BIMB,5258,主板金融股)则是今天少数上涨的银行股。

联昌国际大跌43仙或6.47%,以全天最低价位6.22令吉收市,成交量为2796万股,是全场第6大下跌股及第17大热门股。同时,金融指数全天挫1.63%或299.99点,至18145.20点;而富时大马综指重挫2.21%或40.78点,至1804.25点。

安联星展研究分析员指出,取消消费税后,消费者情绪料会继续改善,这可能將推动销量疲软的汽车领域,而惠及汽车贷款。「基于不合理的定价和疲软的汽车销量,很多银行之前都对车贷敬而远之。」

该分析员预期,汽车销量有望获提振,因为买家可能在销售税(SST)重新上路之前的空窗期买车。





企业贷款明年显著復甦

分析师预计,中小型企业贷款也將倾向正面,因为商家已逐渐把焦点转向提振业务成长。

因此,他认为企业贷款也將復甦,但要在2019年才会看到比较明显的復甦。

另一方面,银行领域短期內的收费收入或小幅下跌,但预料外匯收入將协助抵消此因素。

他说,「令吉匯率波动料为外匯收入提供成长空间。」

因此,可留意马银行、联昌国际(CIMB,1023,主板金融股)和兴业银行(RHBBANK,1066,主板金融股)。不过,分析员指出,政府將检討主要基建工程的举动,料將使银行领域来临数月的交易趋软。

整体而言,他认为,马银行和大眾银行是受惠最大的银行股,因为它们的零售银行业务占较大的市场份额。他说,「马银行的非利息收入或存微跌风险。虽然该股股价进期攀升,但高于5%的週息率仍具有吸引力。」

至于大眾银行,则拥有稳健的盈利表现。虽然分析员仍抱持谨慎態度,但隨著车贷料復甦,大眾银行的贷款成长有望回升。

同时,分析员也维持丰隆银行「买进」投资评级,因为看好其强劲的盈利和资產素质,以及贷款復甦。

http://www.orientaldaily.com.my/s/244384

Pentamaster - FY 2018 Earning Forecast & 1st TP: RM 3.75 (4) - YiStock


Author: YiStock | Publish date: Thu, 31 May 2018, 06:35 PM



Pentamaster has released 2 sets of Q1 2018 Quarterly Report on 22 May 2018. One set for PCB & one set for PIL.

Both set of account has many similarity simply because 63.1% of PIL is owned by PCB. By comparing 2 set of results, i tried to do an earning FORECAST for full year 2018. At the same time trying to clear the quastion of RM 7.146 mil listing expenses is actually prepaid by PCB only. (Please note that an earning forecast is near similar to weather forecast. It will never be 100% accurate. It certan cases, the accuracy is Zero)

PCB PIL PCB
Q1 2018  Q4 2017 Q3 2017 Q2 2017 Q1 2017
Revenue 99,383 98,048 98,504 83,302 54,811 47,572
Cost of Goods Sold 69,886 68,515 69,159 62,622 37,215 34,557
Gross Profit (a) 29,497 29,533 29,345 20,680 17,596 13,015
% gross margin 29.68% 30.12% 29.79% 24.83% 32.10% 27.36%

Other Income 5,955 5,951 4,405 212 426 419
Incl. Forex gain 5,454 5,454 363 71 237 17
adjustment (b) 501 497 4,042 141 189 402

Admin Expenses (c) 18,708 12,553 18,434 9,665 5,028 3,229
Incl. Listing Expenses 7,146 1,647 1,062 4,140 0 0
incl. One-off amortisation proj. Man + GEMs 0 0 4,522 0 0 0
Incl. Forex loss 4,792 3,926 5,959 920 1,260 0

adjustment (c) 6,770 6,980 6,891 4,605 3,768 3,229
% core admin expenses 6.81% 7.12% 7.00% 5.53% 6.87% 6.79%



Reported PBT 16,448 22,645 13,458 9,415 11,768 9,341
tax 1,434 1,434 1,498 1,014 1,452 846
Reported PAT 15,054 21,211 11,960 8,401 10,316 8,495

Adjusted Core PAT (add back special item & net forex exposure ) 21,538 21,330

18,735 13,390 11,339 8,478
% net profit margin 21.6% 21.7% 19.0% 16.1% 20.6% 17.8%

Reported PAT (owner of the company) 7,227
Core earning @ 63.1% (approximately) 14,024 (14% margin)




Interpretation:

1) based on above quarters report, we can see that "Admin Expenses" after excluding Listing Expenses, Forex Loss & One off expenses, the percentage is around 6.7% (average 6 quarters). It is the Listing exercise that mess up the admin expenses. Since the listing activity is completed, i expect admin expenses should back to normal.

2) Foreign currency hedging were conducted perfectly all the while except for Q4 2017. Reason can be found in Q4 quarter report.

3) Listing fee for PIL (RM1.647 mil) and PCB (RM7.146 mil) has been reported separately in Q1 2018. This is the reason causing the Admin Expenses amount reported differently in PCB (RM 18.708 mil) and PIL (RM 12.553 mil) quarter report. Therefore, the listing fee showed in PCB report amounted to RM 7.146 is supposed to be wholly paid by PCB.

4) Total Listing expenses paid so far is RM 14 mil (instead of RM 15 mil). Question remain if such amount paid by PCB will eventually be claimed back from PIL. Any claim should add back to future PCB's net profit. Refer HERE.

5) Adding back the listing fee into PCB's portion of earning (owner of the company (63.1%), Profit will be around RM 14 mil for Q1 2018 for PCB only.

6) PCB order book stood at RM 315 mil as of end of Q1 2018 and all machines supposed to be delivered to end customer in coming 3 to 4 quarters.

7) The Most Optimistic case:

FY 2018 total Revenue RM 400 mil; @ 19% net margin (average 6 quarters) = RM 76 mil net profit for PCB & PIL. Apply bluntly 63.1% = RM 48 mil @ EPS 15 sen per share for PCB only

PCB historical PE is at the normal range of (20 to 30) from Aug 2017 to May 2018. Refer below:





By applying BLUNTLY PE 25,

TP for penta: 25 PER x 15 sen = RM 3.75 per share, representing upside potential of 60% from today closing price of RM 2.33

Should Penta Order Book continue to increase as per my article here, i shall review this TP again.



Cheers,

YiStock

Note: This is the most optimistic case. If you buy blindly without own research, you most likely ended up in shark's stomach. Good Luck!

Pos Malaysia - En route to improving operational efficiency

Author: HLInvest | Publish date: Thu, 31 May 2018, 09:09 AM

Improving operational efficiency remains the key focus for Pos this year. Pos has invested into an interactive dashboard system, allowing management to easily track trends, performance of outlets, and many more. The IPC 1 extension is expected to be completed by July 2018 while the new IPC 2 is expected to be completed by August 2019, bringing total courier sorting capacity up to 500k parcels per day. Capex is expected to be RM300m per annum over the next two years (IPC 2 expansion RM80m, IT platform RM120m, and maintenance RM100m). We believe improvements in operational efficiency from the initiatives set out by management will be apparent only in the midterm (by 2022). We maintain Hold with a lower TP of RM3.40.

Digitalising analytical data. Pos has invested into a dashboard system as part of its efforts to improve the overall operational efficiency. Through this, all internal data will be configured into an interactive dashboard, allowing management to easily pinpoint trends within segments, track the progress of initiatives set out, track underperforming areas of the business, and many more.

IPC expansion. The Integrated Parcel Centre (IPC) 1 extension in Shah Alam is expected to be completed by July 2018. This extension will allow IPC 1 to sort up to 300k (from 112k) parcels per day. The new IPC 2, located near to KLIA, is expected to be completed by August 2019. This centre will increase the group’s courier parcel sorting capacity up to 500k parcels per day.

Capex moving forward. The exceptionally high capex of RM436.2m (historically c.RM120m) in FY18 were mainly due the purchase of the two second-hand bulk carrier vessels (RM141.3m) required to service the coal transportation contract awarded by TNB. Pos has budgeted capex amounting to RM300m per year up to FY20. FY19 Capex will be spent mainly on: (i) IPC 2 expansion (RM80m); (ii) IT platform upgrades (RM120m); and (iii) maintenance (RM100m). The capex will be funded by combination of the company’s cash and borrowings (up to RM250m).

Logistics to see a slight improvement in margins. With the purchase of the two bulk carrier vessels, Pos will be able to earn better margins on TNB’s coal transportation contract. This is however partially hampered by the Haulage business making losses amidst the competitive Logistics environment.

Other income in 4Q18. Management clarified that the increase in “Other Income” is not expected to recur on a consistent basis. As such, we considered the RM10m increase as an Exceptional Item.

Outlook. We believe improvements in operational efficiency from the initiatives set out by management will go through a gestation period before contributing positively in the longer term (estimated by 2022). Pos will continue to be dragged by its high fixed cost structure, sunset conventional postal services and stiff competition in their courier division against a backdrop of the e-commerce boom.

Forecast. We cut earnings forecasts by 5.2% for FY19 and 1.0% for FY20 as we adjust for: (i) higher interest expense from debt drawdown; and (ii) decrease in capex assumption from RM450m.

Maintain HOLD, lower TP: RM3.40 (from RM3.61) pegged to a 25% discount on Singapore Post’s FY19 PB Multiple, given Pos’s continued drag in earnings and on going re-structuring exercises.

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 31 May 2018

Wednesday, May 30, 2018

MNRB 4Q net profit jumps 15.6%

Sulhi Azman / theedgemarkets.com
May 30, 2018 19:06 pm +08

KUALA LUMPUR (May 30): MNRB Holdings Bhd reported a 15.62% rise in net profit in the fourth quarter ended March 31, 2018 (4QFY18) to RM29.41 million, from RM25.43 million a year ago, boosted by business rationalisation exercise, termination of unprofitable ventures, lower management expenses and higher fee income.

In addition, the higher profit was also supported by net gains from the capital reduction exercise in Sinar Seroja Bhd, MNRB said in a filing with Bursa Malaysia today.

Quarterly revenue, however, was 10.76% lower at RM636.71 million compared to RM713.49 million a year ago, on lower contributions from its re-insurance business via Malaysian Reinsurance Bhd (Malaysian Re) and Islamic insurance unit, Takaful Ikhlas Bhd.

Malaysian Re is Malaysia's largest re-insurance firm with a 60% market share. It is also Asean's largest reinsurer by asset size and second largest by gross premiums.

For the full year ended March 31, 2018 (FY18), MNRB said net profit leaped 92.2% to RM136.79 million, from RM71.17 million a year ago, amid a lower revenue, which slipped 2.29% to RM2.47 billion from RM2.53 billion previously.

MNRB said its total assets increased 4.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) to RM7.9 billion in FY18 from RM7.6 billion.

Commenting on the cumulative earnings, MNRB president and group chief executive officer Mohd Din Merican said the commendable results reflected its perseverance and strong dedication whilst operating under an uncertain economic landscape.

"We were focused on executing our strategic business approaches, which yielded to our strong performance in FY18," he added.

On its re-insurance business, Mohd Din said Malaysian Re has embarked on its Business Transformation 2020 and rationalised its overseas portfolio by terminating non-profitable businesses and increasing its participation in high-growth and profitable segments.

"In addition, Malaysian Re had further refined its risk selection process and strengthened its internal control for the businesses it underwrites," he added.

At the same time, MNRB said Malaysian Re's retakaful division had also successfully secured higher businesses volume in FY18.

As for its Islamic insurance business, Mohd Din said the sharp improvement in Takaful Ikhlas was underpinned by higher wakalah fee from both its family and general takaful businesses, as a result of competitive repricing of its products, as well as improvements in claim ratios and effective cost containment initiatives.

"Takaful Ikhlas has set the right track in sustaining a positive momentum and we hope to see the business continue to flourish in FY19," he added.

Going forward, MNRB said it is expected to achieve satisfactory results in FY19.

"Moving into FY19, we will continue to remain cautiously optimistic, enforce strict underwriting discipline and drive value through integration and customer focus," Mohd Din added.

MNRB shares, which are listed on the Main Market, gained 1 sen or 0.41% to closed at RM2.46 today, for a market capitalisation of RM786.23 million.

FBM KLCI ETF - A Proxy to Malaysian Stock Market

Author:   |    Publish date: 


Investment Highlights

  • We initiate coverage on FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI exchange-traded fund (FBM KLCI ETF) with a HOLD recommendation. We value the ETF at RM2.02, based on our fair values (for stocks under our coverage), consensus fair values (for stocks not under our coverage) and last traded price (for Hap Seng Consolidated, which is not under any coverage).
  • The ETF tracks the performance of the benchmark index in Malaysia, i.e. the FBM KLCI, by investing in the constituents of the index, in accordance with their weighting in the index. The top five holdings of the ETF are Public Bank (14.5%), Tenaga Nasional (11.3%), Malayan Banking (11.1%), CIMB Group (7.3%) and Axiata Group (4.4%).
  • We are positive on the outlook for the FBM KLCI. We project the FBM KLCI’s earnings to grow by 5.3% and 7.1% in 2018 and 2019, underpinned by a GDP growth of 5.5% and 5.3% respectively. We have year-end targets of 1,900pts and 2,040pts in 2018 and 2019 for the FBM KLCI, based on 18x 2018F and 2019F earnings respectively. This is at a 1x multiple premium to the 5-year historical average of about 17x, largely to reflect the cyclical upturn in corporate earnings growth.
  • We believe the key catalysts for the FBM KLCI could potentially come from: (1) the normalisation of the market risk premium as greater clarity on new government policies emerges; (2) improved sentiment towards emerging markets; and (3) a more level playing field across the sectors that may unleash the growth potential in corporate Malaysia .
  • On the other hand, we believe the performance of the FBM KLCI could potentially be weighed down by: (1) strongerthan-expected US inflation and wage growth, rekindling the prospects of a steeper rate hike cycle in the US and a stronger USD; (2) the escalation in the US-China trade war and geopolitical tensions; and (3) earnings disappointments by FBM KLCI heavyweights such as banks, telcos and Tenaga.
  • The performance of FBM KLCI ETF was mixed over the last five years. It registered positive returns (in terms of total return, i.e. appreciation in price plus dividend) in 2013, 2016 and 2017, but losses in 2014 and 2015. On average over the five years (2013-2017), it delivered an annual total return of 4.2%.
  • Our analysis shows that there is a strong positive correlation between the FBM KLCI and FBM KLCI ETF, and similarly between the price and net asset value (NAV) of FBM KLCI ETF over 2013-2017.
Source: AmInvest Research - 30 May 2018

Yong Tai Berhad - Looking to FY19

Author:   |    Publish date: 


Yong Tai’s 9MFY18 net profit of RM10.1m (+218.7% YoY), though registering admirable growth YoY, is below expectations at only 28% of our and 24% of consensus full-year estimates respectively. Major causes of the discrepancies are slower-than-expected progress in the Terra Square and Amber Cove developments, with the Encore Impression Melaka now slated for official launch in early July despite being already completed. FY18 and FY19 estimates are lowered by 42% and 4% respectively to account for changes in billing assumptions. Our Outperform call continues to be affirmed nonetheless, underpinned by its “Impression”-based in projects in Melaka, with an unchanged sum-of-parts based target price of RM2.25.
  • 9MFY18 is driven primarily by on-going progress billings of “The Apple” mixed development project,which is currently at 76% (2QFY18: 60%) completion. With the recently completed Apple 99 Development Sdn Bhd acquisition, the Group is now able to fully account for 60% of development earnings going forward from the 42% previously. Contributions from the RM873m Terra Square retail units and RM267m Amber Cove project, both fully-sold, have been slower-than expected however, more evidently in the former. Works are only at 16% completion for Terra Square (2QFY18: 15%) as China’s capital controls have stymied repatriation of funds, thereby slowing progress considerably. Management is making progress in overcoming this however, though near-term contributions are likely to be hampered notably. Cancellation risks are minimal but cannot be ruled out altogether. It will not be short on takers however, more so with the impending opening of the Theatre in the vicinity. Works on the Amber Cove project is 10% completed (2QFY18: 5%), with piling just completed. Management anticipates more significant pick-ups in the subsequent quarter going into FY19.
  • Construction of the Encore Impression Melaka theatre is completed (Figure 1) and slated for official opening in July 2018. Initially targeted for May 2018, we are made to understand that observation of the holy months of Ramadan and Syawal is a reason for the push-back in opening. A million tickets (or about 70% of capacity) per year for the next three have already been committed to via off-take agreements with various parties.
  • The recently-launched RM220m Impresssion U-Thant development in Kuala Lumpur, the Group’s maiden project out of Melaka, has secured 70% bookings and is currently being converted into sales. We foresee no issues with this project given its attractive location and price point, with unit sizes ranging between 782sf and 1,632sf priced at about RM1,700 psf.
Source: PublicInvest Research - 30 May 2018

Tuesday, May 29, 2018

[转贴] 5分钟看懂 RCECAP(9296) 2018年 Q4季报 - 第一天


Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Tue, 29 May 2018, 09:41 AM
Tuesday, May 29, 2018



RCECAP,或许对于读者来说,会比较陌生,毕竟它是第一次出现在我的部落格而已。其实这只股我久不久都有看看他,但是由于不是100%熟悉,所以一直都没买进。直到最近有读者留言让我分析下,所以用了好几天去深入研究,发现其实它真的蛮不错,看来是走宝了,而且有点运气,因为最近股价比较廉宜,所以趁机有买入了一些,希望从中获利之余,还可以出席股东大会完全了解他,废话少说,直接入正题。。



Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31 Mar 2018
RCE CAPITAL BERHAD


Financial Year End 31 Mar 2018
Quarter 4 Qtr
Quarterly report for the financial period ended 31 Mar 2018
The figures have not been audited



Attachments
Qtr Ann - 31 03 2018.pdf
362.0 kB



Default Currency
Other Currency
Currency: Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)


SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION
31 Mar 2018


INDIVIDUAL PERIOD
CUMULATIVE PERIOD

CURRENT YEAR QUARTER
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
QUARTER
CURRENT YEAR TO DATE
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
PERIOD

31 Mar 2018
31 Mar 2017
31 Mar 2018
31 Mar 2017


$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
1 Revenue
63,242
57,254
245,906
223,331
2 Profit/(loss) before tax
30,073
28,855
117,373
101,490
3 Profit/(loss) for the period
23,022
21,245
88,681
78,949
4 Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent
23,022
21,245
88,681
78,949
5 Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit)
6.73
6.35
26.03
23.92
6 Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit)
4.00
3.00
7.00
3.00

AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER
AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
7 Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$)
1.5200
1.3100


先看营业额,季度来说,从去年同季的5700万成长至这一季的6300万,成长率10%左右,而由于这个是第四季,所以全年的营业额也从去年的2亿2300万左右成长到今年的2亿4590万左右,成长率为10%左右,算是蛮不错。

至于每股净利方面,季度来说成长率就没那么多了,大概只成长了6%,而全年来说,则8.8%左右,算是还不错,但是看回上面的数目对比每股的数目不太对,所以单单从表面看,我们怀疑他的股数有变动过,所以唯有按进去查阅完整版本的。

好了,看了完整版本了,股数确实有问题,原来是去年他们做重组的时候导致平均股数跟今年最新的平均股数不同,所以导致有所偏差,加上有一点点的ESS,不过问题不大,因为如果以这只股的SHARE BUY BACK来看,预测明年的平均股数跟今年的也会有出入。

趁着季报的出炉,公司也推出了股息政策,介于20-40%的净利,假设下一年的业绩最少保持一样的话,那么公司的股息将介于5-10sen之间了,对比今年的7sen来说,预测可以最少保持一样。

股价:RM1.33
PE:5.1
DY:5.26%
ROE:17

总的来说,无论以DY还是PE来看,这只股都处于一个值得投资的项目,而且公司的profit margin和ROE都非常诱人,分别是47%和17%,基本上来说,以基本面来看,这只股的价位是非常美了,然后再以成长来说,公司这年多来都保持着成长,所以基本上单单看表面来说,几乎接近完美的阶段,不过由于我对他还不至于100%熟悉,所以需要稍作保留,而且新政府貌似有意减少公务员人数,也有可能会对公司的业绩有所影响,不过以我看来,借贷生意的话,只要不是呆账,生意减少其实反而不太害怕,反正钱是借来借给人的,其实都是差不多的。值得一提,这家公司是AMCORP GROUP的子公司,所以我要研究的东西还有很多,如果有朋友对他非常熟悉,也欢迎一起交流哦:)

*照片异常少,因为RCECAP的网站有写明,不允许使用他的任何资料,所以唯有照办。

写这篇文章的时候我个人是持有该公司股份,但是请别看到我的文章就胡乱以为我叫你买或卖,整篇文章并没有任何买卖建议,或推高股压低价的其他企图,单纯分享我的功课,本人怒不对你的盈亏负任何责任,谢谢。



你的一个小小的like或share,是让我们用心整理更多好文章的最佳鼓励和动力哦^。^
HAPPY INVESTING
BY ~ 第一天



http://windscopo.blogspot.my/2018/05/5-rcecap9296-2018-q4.html

马国际船务 5%周息率诱人

Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Tue, 29 May 2018, 10:07 AM

目标价:7.15令吉最新进展

马国际船务(MISC,3816,主板贸服股)获得巴西国家石油公司长期租船合约,将出租4艘specialist DP2 Suezmax规模的穿梭油轮。

租期为10年,预计2020年开始在国际和巴西水域投运。

目前,该公司也在巴西流域,为巴西国家石油公司出租2艘AET DP2船只。


行家建议

由于新合约2020财年才开始,所以对马国际船务2018到2019财年的净利贡献小。

我们观察所得,目前市场上Suezmax规模的船只,1年和3年的租金介于每天2万美元(约7.96万令吉),大约估计可为该公司带来每年额外收入1.06亿令吉,等于目前营业额的1%。

再次获得巴西国家石油公司的合约,也显示出该公司油槽船业务的专业受到肯定,可提高进一步获得合约的几率。

另外,该股5月中以来下跌了14%,我们认为是过度抛售。现股价水平来计算,周息率达5%诱人水平,加上令吉贬值也会激励业绩表现,所以上调到“超越大市”。





http://www.enanyang.my/news/20180529/马国际船务br-5周息率诱人/

生活与工作间需要平衡? 世界首富:这种想法是错的

2018年5月28日



说贝佐斯是个不一样的首富,不太公平,因为每位大老板其实都有自己的怪癖和独到之处。但不可否认的是,这位科技教父的思考模式常常很跳tone,例如他的“2张披萨原则”(每次开会绝不超过2张披萨能填饱的人数),还有饭后一定自己洗碗。

德国媒体集团Axel Springer日前颁奖给亚马逊创办人贝佐斯,顺便专访了这位世界首富。访谈当中有一段关于“在工作与生活之间取得平衡”的谈话,颇令在座人士玩味,也让人一窥贝佐斯的生活哲学。

“如果我的家庭生活很愉快,踏进办公室时就会充满活力;另一方面,如果我工作中很愉快,回到家时也会精神饱满。它其实是个循环,而非取舍和平衡。”

千禧世代以来的工作职场,经常可以听到年轻一辈希望“在工作与生活之间取得平衡”,而不愿像上一代那样为事业卖命,到最后赔上了家庭幸福和健康。对于这种说法,贝佐斯并不苟同,他认为此种观念是把职场和个人1分为2,彷佛两者间是零和关系、相互对立,但实际上并非如此。

“工作与生活之间的和谐,是我常开导年轻员工,甚至和资深员工也讨论到的话题,”贝佐斯在访问中说:“很多新进人员问我该怎么维持工作和生活之间的平衡,我都告诉他们,这种想法是错误的,因为工作与生活不该是取舍关系。”

贝佐斯认为工作和生活其实一体两面,彼此相互影响,因此年轻人应该设法追求这2个层面的和谐,而非执著于工作时间是否占用私人生活,或是担心家庭阻碍了事业。

“你绝不希望自己变成那种人──我们身边都不乏这些人──那种只要一走进办公室,马上令其他人浑身没劲的人。你要做的,是那种一踏入办公室就让大家精神一振的人。”

而除了工作哲学,贝佐斯在访谈中也针对最近面子书、Google引起质疑的使用者隐私权和资料安全问题,做出了回应。他认为企业最重要的资产就是“信赖”,而亚马逊旗下产品服务至今仍能获得大多数消费者爱用,就是因为重视资料保密,努力维持大众对亚马逊的“信赖感”。

新闻来源:ETtoday新闻云

http://www.enanyang.my/news/20180528/%E7%94%9F%E6%B4%BB%E4%B8%8E%E5%B7%A5%E4%BD%9C%E9%97%B4%E9%9C%80%E8%A6%81%E5%B9%B3%E8%A1%A1%EF%BC%9F%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%E9%A6%96%E5%AF%8C%E8%BF%99%E7%A7%8D%E6%83%B3%E6%B3%95%E6%98%AF%E9%94%99%E7%9A%84/

Monday, May 28, 2018

Muda Holdings' 1Q net profit down on higher tax expenses

Sangeetha Amarthalingam / theedgemarkets.com
May 28, 2018 20:42 pm +08

KUALA LUMPUR (May 28): Corrugated carton maker Muda Holdings Bhd’s net profit dropped 13.45% year-on-year to RM15.71 million in the first quarter ended March 31, 2018 (1QFY18) from RM18.15 million.

The drop in net profit was partly due to higher tax expenses during the quarter which amounted to RM6.73 million versus RM2.39 million a year ago.

On top of that, the group received lower insurance compensation for the fire that occured in 2016. It received RM3.11 million in 1QFY18 compared with RM12.73 million in the previous corresponding quarter.

In the filing with Bursa Malaysia, Muda explained that if the impact of net compensation from the insurer for the fire, which occurred in 2016 was eliminated, the adjusted pre-tax profit of RM19.4 million for the current quarter under review was 2.4 times higher than the adjusted pre-tax profit of RM8.2 million in the previous corresponding quarter.

Quarterly revenue climbed 17.33% to RM371.59 million compared with RM316.72 million last year. Muda’s earnings per share stood at 5.15 sen compared with 5.95 sen a year ago.

Muda said the existing Chinese policy on the import of solid waste is expected to influence the price of waste paper and the demand and selling price of industrial paper positively. The positive outlook of industrial paper will be supplemented by stable demand for paper packaging products as the economy grows.

“Internally, implementation of programmes to improve efficiency and lower production cost will cushion the impact of higher gas tariff, higher operating cost, depreciation and finance cost associated with expansion of a paper machine and installations of new corrugating machine in the year. Therefore, the board believes Muda will deliver a reasonable level profit for the year,” it added.

In a separate announcement, the group’s 70%-owned subsidiary Intrapac (Singapore) Pte Ltd has acquired an 85% stake in food wrapping paper maker and seller Lonsing Packaging Industries Pte Ltd for S$807,500 or RM2.38 million.

It said the acquisition would enable the group to expand its sales of food packaging products in Singapore. Following the acquisition, Lonsing becomes an 85%-owned subsidiary of Intrapac Singapore that will in turn be a 59.5%-owned subsidiary of Muda.

Also, Muda announced that its major shareholder and non-executive chairman Tan Sri Lim Guan Teik’s son Datuk Lim Chiun Cheong has been appointed as the company’s managing director.

Chiun Cheong, who was previously the deputy managing director, is also the nephew of Muda’s executive director Datuk Lim Wan Peng. Meanwhile, Datuk Azaman Abu Bakar, who was the managing director, has been re-designated as the company’s executive deputy chairman.

Muda’s share price has more than doubled since February from the RM1.20-level to a record high of RM2.86 early this month. The stock closed at RM2.82 today, with a market capitalisation of RM860.24 million.

比1929年更恐怖的灾难将至

Author: Adi_Investor | Publish date: Mon, 28 May 2018, 02:32 PM

[節錄]

资产管理公司Matterhorn Asset Management AG创始人,Egon von Greyerz称,1980年,包括房地产在内的全球资产不到20万亿美元。将近40年之后,他们已经增长到524万亿美元,复合年增长率达到9%,这在38年的时间里是相当令人惊叹的。在此期间,全球资产增长了26倍。而在同一时期,黄金价格从1980年的大约650美元到今天的1300美元。这与全球资产增幅相比,只是“小巫见大巫”。

曾成功预测量化宽松政策、货币历史波动的传奇人物Egon von Greyerz,預測一场金融灾难将出现,金价最高可能飙升至17,000美元。

Greyerz说道:“在过去38年来,黄金一直是被遗忘的资产和投资。金价涨幅甚至没有跟上通货膨胀的步伐。因此,投资者对黄金兴趣不大,而其他投资资产则大幅飙升。2002年,当时金价位于300美元,我们将黄金作为财富保值的战略投资,建议投资者将相当大比例(至少25%)的资产投入黄金。从那以后,黄金的表现比大多数投资类别都要好。但与即将到来的情况相比,目前的增长是微不足道的。”

他称:“我们相信,从现在到2025年,我们将看到历史上最大的财富转移。即将到来的财富转移将会对全球投资市场产生影响,这对大多数投资者来说将是完全令人震惊的。所有的传统市场,债券,股票和房产至少会损失50%到75%甚至更多。与此同时,黄金和白银等贵金属将经历一场完全出乎意料的投资狂潮。随着股票和债券的急剧下跌,市场将会被一种自1929年崩盘以来没有经历过的恐惧所克服。但这次情况可能会更糟。”

目前世界上只有0.6%的金融资产是实物黄金。早在1960年,黄金占全球资产的5%,但其他投资资产的爆炸式增长将这一比例降至0.6%。

Greyerz表示,即将到来的资产泡沫破裂将导致资产价格在今天到2025年之间至少下降50%。这显然会导致严重的金融危机和金融体系的重大问题,因为资产不仅包括股票和房地产,还包括债券和贷款。因此,银行体系将面临巨大压力,保险公司和养老基金也将面临巨大压力。

Greyerz并称,鉴于全球金融资产在过去的38年里上涨了26倍,出现75%的回调是完全正常的。全球资产价格仍将比1980年高出8倍。随着金融危机的加剧,黄金将开始反映其经通胀调整后的实际价值。上面的表格假设金价达到10,000美元,但经通胀调整后的实际价格(1980年为基准年)接近17,000美元。

他表示:“对于那些认为股市下跌75%是不可能的人来说,只需记住1929年的道琼斯指数。当时,道琼斯指数在一个比当前更有利的经济形势下暴跌了90%。当时美国还是一个债权国,全球债务状况与今天相比微不足道。道琼斯指数不仅下跌了90%,而且还花了25年时间才达到1929年的峰值水平。即将到来的下跌不仅可能超过75%的假设,而且由于危机的全球性质以及随之而来的全球金融危机,将需要超过25年的时间来恢复元气。”

Greyerz说道:“价格10,000美元/盎司的黄金加上全球资产萎缩75%意味着黄金将占总资产的17%。这听起来可能非常高,但我们必须记住,在那个时候,黄金将是真正的货币,因为法定货币的内在价值将达到零。”

未来不迎,当时不杂,既过不恋

语出《曾国藩文集·处世金针·修身之要》:“当读书,则读书,心无着于见客也;当见客,则见客,心无着于读书也。一有着,则私也。灵明无着,物来顺应,未来不迎,当时不杂,既过不恋。是之谓虚而已矣,是之谓诚而已矣,以此读《无妄》《咸》《中孚》三卦。盖扞格者鲜矣。”

--读书录:《周易·中孚》

是曾文正公读《周易》有感

意思是,活在当下,真正的活在当下。 做事情的时候专注于事情本身,不为未来的不确定性所忧虑,也不沉浸在过去的痛苦里,亦不被时下的外界环境所牵绊,按照当下自己的意志去做自己应该做的事,就足够了。

当你真正理解了的时候,你会发现先贤们在各个地方都在说这个道理。什么“不以物喜不以己悲”,什么“宇宙即吾心,吾心即宇宙”,什么“从心所欲不越矩”,都是在说不被外界所困扰,各种外界情况。

还看到一个关于活在当下的小故事,算是寓言吧:
一个小和尚问得道的师傅:“您得道前后有没有什么变化?”老和尚说:“变化很大。”那到底有什么变化呢,老和尚告诉小和尚:“在得道之前,我每天砍柴、挑水、做饭。得道之后,我每天砍柴、挑水、做饭。”小和尚不理解:“师傅,这不是一样吗?”老和尚说:“不一样,在得道之前,我每天砍柴的时候想着挑水,挑水的时候想着做饭,做饭的时候又想着砍柴。得道之后,我每天砍柴的时候只想着砍柴,挑水的时候只想着挑水,做饭的时候只想着做饭。”

这套心法确实能在生活中指导你的行为,并且让你变得平静,让你保持客观的态度。

WHY IS DIVIDEND IMPORTANT? From Dr Neoh Soon Kean's STOCK MARKET

WHY IS DIVIDEND IMPORTANT? From Dr Neoh Soon Kean's STOCK MARKET INVESTMENT, Calvin Tan reposting
Author: calvintaneng | Publish date: Sun, 27 May 2018, 11:44 PM

WHY IS DIVIDEND IMPORTANT?

Dividend is important for many reasons. The most important reason has been explained a chapter earlier on, that is, dividend is the only benefit which a shareholder can obtain from a company under the normal circumstances. Profit, per se, is hardly of any use to him directly and the assets are only of value if the company is liquidated which is unlikely in a great majority of cases. Apart from this reason, dividend is important for the following reasons:

1) Dividend is a sure thing.

All too often, investors and speculators pay too much attention to profit forecast. It is amazing that so many malaysian companies have the courage to make profit forecast for many years into the future. What is even more amazing is that so many of the investors seem to believe these forecasts absolutely. It is difficult to make a profit forecast a year ahead, let alone five years or even ten years. Such profit forecasts can only be regarded as extremely shaky.

Let us take a recent example. During 1981, when the "property injection game" was at its height, many of the companies which were first getting into property development business gave very rosy forecasts of future earnings potential, as a result the price of these shares naturally went up to tremendous heights. Since then, the housing market softened considerably and the office rental market has declined 40-50 per cent. In just three years, the profit picture of just about all land development companies has changed considerably. I wonder how many of those forecasts made in 1981 can still stand up to scrutiny today.

Dividend is real and it is something which the shareholders can put to some use. Most companies keep dividend at a level they can afford to pay out irrespective of whether it is a good or bad year and is hence a great deal more certain than profit forecast.

2) Dividend provides a link with reality.

When the market is truly 'hot', few of us can keep truly rational and we tend to be swept along in the general atmosphere of optimism. But the dividend yield of a share keeps us in close touch with the real world. As in the earlier example of OCBC, anyone who keeps his eye on the dividend yield of that share would have realised that the price level was totally unreal. Most people would agree that at a dividend yield of 0.4 per cent it would be better to sell a share and invest the proceed in houses or leave the money in fixed deposit.

In the established stock markets of the world, the dividend yield (ie dividend per share/price per share) usually has a steady relationship with the fixed deposit and its interest rate. It is normal for dividend yield to fluctuate at around 1/3 to 1/2 of the long-term deposit interest rate. This means that when fixed deposit interest is around 10 per cent per annum, stock should sell at a price to provide a yield of 3 per cent to 5 per cent. Taking a look at the yield provided by local shares during bull markets, the dividend yield is usually so low as to be meaningless. Futhermore, one should not forget that fixed deposit of 15 months or longer and fixed deposits in National Savings Bank are interest free in Malaysia while dividend has a witholding tax of 40 per cent applied at source.

3) Dividend provides a 'floor' for shares during bear markets.

Stock markets of the world, especially the Malaysian/Singaporean market is not readily predictable. They can collapse so easily into a 'bear pit' with little warning. If we wished to protect our hard earned capital, we must be defensive in our investment approach. One of the best defense is to buy shares with reasonable dividend yield (i.e. a yield of between 1/2 of deposit interest rate). If we buy a share because it pays a reasonable dividend, our loss is likely to be small even during periods of sharp market decline.

For example, we can buy a share which pays 30 cents dividend at Rm5.00 a share and this gives us a dividend yield of 6 per cent. If the share market goes into a sharp decline, the amount this share can fall to is limited by the fact that it pays a 30 cents dividend. If the price is to fall to as low as Rm3.00, it will be giving a dividend yield of 10 per cent which is about as good as what one can get from fixed deposit but with the additional opportunity to capital gain thrown in.

Most people can see that at that price, the share is probably a good bargain and it is therefore unlikely to fall any lower.It has been my experience that with the exception of mining counters, a dividend yield of 12 per cent seems to be the floor below which most stocks will not drop. In sharp contrast, shares which pay low or no dividend at all do not seem to have any bottom and price decline can hit 90 per cent or more.




4) Dividend yield prevents investors from being side-tracked by irrelevant events.

The Malaysian/Singaporean stock market can be characterised by a large number of events which are of little real benefit to the existing shareholders and yet which excite them greatly. I am referring to the large number of bonus announcements, rights issues, property injections, take-overs, and mergers which have made their appearance in recent years. Most of these events are of little, if any, real economic benefit to the existing shareholders of the companies involved.

Despite this, the price of the shares of a company involved in an event of this nature tends to rise sharply. Later chapters will explain in detail why these events are, in the main, irrelevant and some of them may even be damaging.

For the moment, let us consider the following. According to the dividend yield approach to share valuation, a share can have increased value only if there is a likelihood that its dividend will rise faster than originally expected. We ask ourselves in what way events like bonuses, rights, mergers and re-organisations in themselves can improve the future dividend picture of a company. If these events cannot lead to such an increase, the share surely does not deserve a higher valuation.

It is hoped that readers are, by now, at least partially convinced of the wisdom of buying a share for its dividend. In later chapters, the range of dividend yields which is reasonable for different categories of shares will be examined. In the meantime, I leave you with a short ditty that has been popular for years in the US and is still often quoted as advice to first time share buyers.

A cow for its milk,
Bees for their honey,
And shares, by golly,
For their dividend.

The above passage is taken from the book "STOCK MARKET INVESTMENT" in Malaysia And Singapore

By Dr . Neoh Soon Kean of Dynaquest Sdn Bhd (pp 148 to 150) Published in year 1985.

P.I.E Industrial - Hit By Components Shortages

Author: kiasutrader | Publish date: Mon, 28 May 2018, 09:54 AM

1Q18 CNP missed; with components shortages causing a delay in sales as well as operational deleveraging. While this industry-wide dampener should continue to tax existing products growth if not be addressed in the near term, we believe the upcoming new high-margin products should make up for the shortfall in 1H. Cut FY18E/FY19E by 17%/13%. Maintain OP with a lower TP of RM1.75 on cheap valuation as well as a recovery in 2H18.

Impacted by broad-base dampeners. While 1Q is typically the seasonally weakest quarter, a weaker-than-expected CNP of RM1.0m (- 88% QoQ; -89% YoY) was recorded, which only made up 2% of our/consensus full-year estimates. Note that CNP has been adjusted for the net reversal of receivables impairment amounting to RM6.4m and other immaterial items. The main culprit was the industry-wide passive components shortages (which are the key components for its key customers), which have resulted in weaker sales and thus lower operation efficiency. Worse still, currency trend was also not in favour with USD/MYR weakening against MYR by 6% QoQ and 12% YoY to average of RM3.92/USD.

Absence of dividend was expected in this quarter as the group typically declares dividends after its 4Q results. However, the recently declared FY17 dividend was a positive surprise; with a total 6.0 sen DPS (first and final net DPS of 2.4 sen plus a special dividend of 3.6 sen) which beat our FY17E DPS of 5.0 sen.

YoY, 1Q18 revenue decreased by 10%, dragged mainly by its manufacturing segment (-12%). We gather that while not much order revisions were made by key MNC clients, production and delivery were delayed due to the components shortages issues. With low operational efficiency alongside weaker USD, EBIT margin was compressed by 3.3ppt to 6.7%, resulting in a much weaker CNP of RM1.0m (-89%). QoQ, core NP dropped by 88% owing to lower loadings in 1Q18 amid weak seasonality (sales dropped by 21%) as well as operational deleveraging (EBIT margin dropped to 6.7%, -10.3ppts).

All shapes and sizes. While we understand that the late delivery is only a timing issue with orders volume still resilient, management noted that the continuous shortage of certain electronics component should continue to tax existing products growth if not addressed in the near term. That said, not all is doom and gloom as the group is already close to securing voluminous contracts in the industrial printing and production as well as medical segment. As these two contracts involve more complicated manufacturing processes, we believe that the better margins should boost the group’s profitability; with better earnings in 2H to make up for the shortfall in 1H.

Maintain OUTPERFORM with a lower TP of RM1.75 (15.0x FY18E PER), from RM2.10. To be on the conservative side, we have trimmed our bullish sales assumption, resulting in a cut in FY18E/FY19E CNP by 17%/13%. Even after the earnings revision, we still see better value proposition following the overdone share price correction, with its forward PERs trading at only 9.5-11.7x, a wide range of 17%-27% discount to closest EMS peers (which are trading at 11.5-16.1x forward PER). Moreover, the group also offers relatively higher NP margin, more advanced manufacturing capabilities as well as having strong parentage support from Foxconn Technology Group.

Source: Kenanga Research - 28 May 2018

曾淵滄﹕逆巿創新高股份 最值得留意

文章日期:2018年5月28日

【明報專訊】特朗普上周突然取消6月12日的特金會,結果令美股一度大跌,但是道指下跌270點之後就開始反彈,最後收市只下跌75點,美股開始有能力對抗特朗普帶來的壓力。

港股也是如此,儘管恒指依然在30000點與31500點之間波動,但是多隻恒指成分股已在近日創出歷史新高或52周新高,這包括公用股中電(0002)、煤氣(0003)、華潤電力(0836);本地銀行及金融股恒生(0011)、中銀香港(2388)、友邦(1399);石油股中石油(0853)、中石化(0386)、中海油(0883);澳門賭業股銀娛(0027)、金沙(1928);內地消費食品飲料股旺旺(0151)、蒙牛(2319),以及本地大型綜合業務股太古A(0019)

上述股份的一個特點是業務不涉及美國,收入來源或是香港本土,或是內地,不賺美國錢,不依賴美國提供原材料。除此之外,上述板塊各自有自己的優勢,所以股價能創新高。公用股是最佳避險股,收入穩定,派息穩定。在風雲變色的國際局勢中,不少投資者會選擇以收息為主的公用股,本地銀行股則會受惠於加息。

本地公用股避險最佳 少受國際局勢影響

石油股股價做好當然是因為國際石油價格上升,石油輸出國減產以托起油價,伊朗、委內瑞拉局勢緊張,也會推高油價;內地消費股則得益於中國經濟復蘇,中央政府鼓勵加強內需、增加消費;而本地綜合企業如太古則得益於香港本年經濟環境也不錯。

有些人不敢追買創新高的股份,認為股價創新高之後,隨時會大跌,正如騰訊(0700)創出476元新高之後,一跌再跌,曾跌破380元,才止跌回升。其間大量散戶趁「低」吸納而中招,實際上,騰訊在創出476元高價之前也不知創過多少次新高,創了新高之後再創新高,一直到升破了476元之後才掉頭下跌。騰訊在過往的許多年,就是在不斷創新高之下而逐步升上476元的。如果有人一見股價創新高就賣掉,相信那類人已經賣掉騰訊許多次,然後再高價買回,賺少了許多錢。

千萬不要因為創新高而「畏高」,特別是在目前的形勢之下,創新高的股份儘管不少,但依然是少數,能逆市創新高的股份,實際上是有很強的利好因素支持風險相當低的股份。

三四線垃圾股皆升 追新高股才危險

什麼時候才擔心創新高的股份?那就是幾乎所有的股份都創新高,特別是一些三四線垃圾股也創新高時,這才是高風險期裏的創新高走勢,那是雞犬皆升的形勢,但現在不是,目前創新高的股份是逆市創新高,靠自身的優良條件創新高而不是靠大市火熱炒起,這跟人人狂炒而創新高是有分別的。

大學教授

[曾淵滄 滄海明珠]

【牛奶冰】深入了解什么是原油+油气上中下游领域 (Part 1)

Author: icemilkinvestment | Publish date: Sun, 14 Jan 2018, 03:22 PM






2018崭新的一年里刚过了2个星期,最火热的三个主题就是中国风、大选、以及油价。随着油价创下近3年新高,油气领域无论是上游、下游、左右游、前后游的个股都被轮流炒作,先是Hibiscus在去年就开始启动,接着是Armada, Umwog, Sapnrg等等都跟着热起来。

其实在今年之前,我个人对油气领域并没有深入的了解,直到去年的最后几天相继的很多油气领域公司出现底部买入信号,相信不少技术面的投机者应该都在12月中就同样的看到了底部进场信号,成功抓完整个涨势。组合里的油气股突然变多了,不得不开始去做基本面和行业的深入研究。

之前Leo前辈有提过,分析油气领域的人并不多,多数属于门外汉,而真正的行家怎么可能有时间分享自己的行业呢。我等了两个星期希望有人能打铁趁热为油气领域做个全面的介绍,然后我就坐收渔翁之利看别人的介绍就行了。

不过在等待的这两个星期也没闲着,也是门外汉的我也自己去了解起来。既然如此,我就做先锋来分享我这几天的收成,让读者了解整个油气领域的上中下游各项的活动与过程,也让读者清楚自己追着的是什么趋势,自己买着的是什么公司。这篇系列将分成3篇,从原油的基本介绍以及领域上游至下游的各个过程,希望对读者有所帮助,也学习新的知识。我的化学知识只停留在Form 6的STPM,之后就完全脱离了化学领域,所以如果行家有发现不正确的地方也请麻烦纠正。


什么是原油?

原油是深埋在地下数千米的液体矿物,由于它的颜色接近深黑色,又是人类日常生活中非常有价值的需求品,因此也被称为黑金。原油是由几亿年前地球上的动植物尸体深埋在岩石底下,经过非常长时间地核发出的高温和高压的环境下而逐渐形成。





原油的结构分子大部分由氢(Hydrogen)和碳(Carbon)组成,所以这个合成分子我们也称为氢碳化合物(Hydrocarbons),当然从地底下新鲜出炉的原油也会参杂了其他元素例如硫磺(sulphur)、占据地球78%的氮(nitrogen)、以及重金属例如水银、铁、铜等等,因此刚出来的原油需要经过一连串的过滤才会送去储存和提炼,这个就在以后的部分再详细讲解。

氢碳化合物(Hydrocarbons)是一种非常容易被燃烧的物质,易燃程度依据它的结构而定,它主要可分为三大类: single bond, double bond & triple bond,而single bond最容易产生化学反应。






Hydrocarbons和氧气结合经过燃烧后,会产生能量的同时也会排放出二氧化碳和水份,这个能量能为我们驱动车子、飞机、轮船、机器等等。




原油的品质和马来西亚的骄傲

在说明为什么值得骄傲之前,我先分享如何分辨原油的品质。原油这个非再生资源被分布在地球的各个角落,而不同区域开采出来的原油都有不同的品质,而原油品质的衡量方式就是通过API值来测量,API值越高表示原油每立方的重量越轻。

品质好的原油特征(轻油):高API、轻、顺滑、颜色较淡、重金属含量低、后期容易提炼、味道偏甜因为硫磺较少
品质差的原油特征(重油):低API、重、浓稠、颜色较深、重金属含量高、后期较难提炼、味道偏酸因为硫磺较多







不同品质的原油价格当然也不同,而品质较高的轻油就有我们经常听到的英国布兰特原油(Brent Oil),美国德萨士原油(WTI),迪拜阿曼原油(Oman),当然也少不了我国马来西亚的Tapis !! 值得一提的是我国的Tapis Crude Oil品质是世界顶级的水平,品质还远胜过Brent, WTI呢。





所以身为原油出产国马来西亚人民的我们,确实应该感到少少的骄傲的。在2014年油价处于高峰时我国的原油价格是世界最高水平,这也是为什么我国是原油生产国,却还要进口原油,就是因为我们的油是拿来出口用的,我们卖贵油给别人,买便宜油进来自己用,从中赚了一笔差价。





说完原油的基本介绍后,接下来要进入正题了

油气领域上中下游过程的一览图:












原油开采的详细过程

过程一:探井/测井 Exploration

测井的过程就像侦探游戏,相关的油气公司需要聘请对岩石层非常了解的原油地质学家,这些地质学家能做的就是通过公司提供的专业器材,对地球的岩石层地质进行观察找出可能藏有原油的线索。当找到新油田后,还要进行分析要如何去挖、要用什么技术去挖、要从哪一个地区挖才能不破坏地质以及实现最大回报等等。这项工作非常耗时,一般上可以花上5-10年来发掘新油田和进行钻井开采。






原油可以藏在陆地底下、也可以藏在深海底下,要将看不见的地下岩石层转为我们可看见的图形,地质学家需要依靠几种特别的技术来完成,就例如地震影像技术 (Seismic Imaging Technology)。地震影像技术是通过声波在地下岩层反射回来的频率来研究地下岩石的结构,地质学家使用地震检波器(Geophone)来记录这些声浪回波的声波,并对这些声波进行计算岩石层的深度和结构,然后分析出是否有原油隐藏在地表下。之后地质学家将总结他们的分析报告给油气公司的财务规划师计算投资回报率,再由高层决定是否要进行钻井开采。






据我所知,目前除了龙头老大Petronas以外,另一家涉及上游测井工作的上市公司就是Sapura Energy, 并且拥有超过50%的测井成功率,其代表作是在2014年连续发掘5个位于砂劳越SK408区域的天然气,之后近两年也陆陆续续的在SK408区域探测到更多的天然气。其他规模较小的支援型公司就有Uzma (提供地质工程与分析)。



过程二:钻井 (Drilling)

钻井是一个无论是财务风险或技术风险都是非常高的一个过程,这个过程需要非常高端的技术来能让油井长期几十年保持稳定的开采,所以这个过程需要投入的资金和开支也是最大的,也因为钻井需要投入非常高资金和高技术,只有在测井阶段得到一个非常准确的结果判断出该区域真的有原油后,才会进行钻井开采,往往新区域的第一口井是最高风险也需要最为谨慎的,因为我们还不知道这区域地底下所要面对的地下压力和突发情况。

钻井和原油开采可以分为两大类,那就是岸上钻井(Onshore)和岸外钻井(Offshore),而岸外钻井还需依据海床的深度而决定适合的钻井模式。相比起来,岸外钻井的风险肯定要比岸上的来得高,尤其是钻井船的卫星地理位置的控制,钻井的同时还要和深海区域的大浪对抗,避免漏油等等,但当然的岸外的油田生产产能要比岸上的高很多,而且地球本来就有71%的部分是海洋,所以High Risk High Return。





一口岸上油井的钻井成本介于5百万美元,而一口岸外油井的钻井成本高达5千万美元甚至上亿美元。在油价高峰期时,钻井台的出租价格可以去到大约每日50万美元,随着油价在两年前下跌,大多数原油开采工作喊停,钻井台的出租价格目前已经跌至大约每日7万美元。影响油田钻井成本的因素有以下:

1) 岸上/岸外:当然岸外的成本越高,而位于深海的钻井就更贵。
2) 钻井深度:当然越深越贵
3) 钻井角度:弯曲或横式(Horizontal)钻井法的成本越贵,传统的竖式(Vertical)钻井法成本较低,过后会讲解这两种钻井法的差别。
4) 地质情况:所钻的岩层越硬、地下压力越高的区域的成本就越贵
5) 原油的质量:越酸性的原油,钻井的成本越高,因为需要更加抗腐蚀的井口材料。

我国涉及上游钻井服务的上市公司就有Sapura Energy, Umwog, Uzma
而支援钻井的上市公司就比如有Scomi(提供钻井后期器材和钻井废料处理服务)、Favco(支援建造钻油台的岸外吊升服务)


第一集暂时先分享到这里,其实过程二的钻井部分还未结束的,不过写的太长担心读者消化不完,就敬请期待下一集吧。不过如果写得不好或是对此类型文章没兴趣的话可以告知一声,我将终止下几集的分享,将时间用在其他私人事务(原本计划在上半年开战原油期货投资)。

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牛奶冰
14/01/2018

免责申明:此文章纯属资讯分享,并非股票买卖建议或操纵股价意图,买卖自负,谢谢。

【牛奶冰】深入了解什么是原油+油气上中下游领域 (Part 2) 附送油价分析图

Author: icemilkinvestment | Publish date: Sun, 21 Jan 2018, 02:18 PM



时间过得真快,一星期就过去了,时间真的非常不够用呀,自从踏入国外的期货市场后,天天都在跟时间赛跑,早上有大马股票与期货市场,晚上有国外原油、金属与农产品期货市场。看了外国的月亮后才发现,在马股能够稳定赚钱的方法,运用在别的市场可能会变成亏钱的,每个市场每个商品都有自己的特性,要征服某个市场需要长期花时间去探索,找出一套稳定赚钱的交易模式出来,需要下很大的功夫、精力、时间,当然也少不了金钱。

所以我还是鼓励读者专注在一个市场稳定的赚钱就足够了,除非有一天你已经闷了,可以将一小笔资金去开拓新市场,以重新燃烧自己对投资交易的激情与好奇心。学无止境,只有不断坚持学习才能提升自己的阅历和经验,永远不要认为自己是最厉害的,一山还有一山高,三人行必有我师也。

话不多说,回顾第一集的分享里,我们提到了:

- 原油的基本介绍
- 马来西亚Tapis原油
- 油气开采过程与上中下游领域一览图
- 过程一:探井/测井
- 过程二:钻井

还未读过第一集的读者,建议点击这里先阅读第一集:http://icemilkinvestment.blogspot.com/2018/01/part-1.html

在第二集,我想把未完成的钻井过程分享一遍了再进入生产过程。之前有提过钻井是一个风险极高,非常考研技术的一个过程,所以这过程的学问也是非常多值得分享的,写了一整集才把这个过程写完,所以在Part 2这篇文章里,我们仍然停留在原油开采过程的上游。

过程二:钻井 Drilling (续集)


以前小时候,我们都会很天真的说要在家门外的泥土挖到金矿、挖油、挖碳就能发达了,也有可能只有我那么天真。。。而现实中一口油井是非常非常深的,岸上油井的深度就已经大约3000米至6000米,而岸外深海的油井深度可以达到12,000米。

很多人好奇12,000米到底有深呢?这深度就相等于是26座国油双峰塔叠起来的高度!等于你把26座双峰塔埋入地底下的深度,又或者是整座槟威第一大桥的长度!每当我驾车去槟岛即使没塞车,也稍微超速一点,都要花大约10分钟来走完大桥。换句话说,如果你驾车时速110从海上驾到油井的尾端需要花上大约10分钟,更别说是走路了,就算你跑马拉松也要不睡不休息的跑50个小时才能到达地底的原油层,这深度是我们无法轻易想象的。


我从新整理资料后发现,大马上市公司里,除了Sapura Energy, Umwog之外,还有一家顶级的钻井公司就是Dnex,Dnex的钻井经验丰富,更是大马第一家能够独立完成钻井工作的公司,也获得龙头老大Petronas Carigali的信赖。还有一家大马上市公司Perisai也涉及钻井的业务,只不过因为无法偿还债务而违约,2016年时被打入了PN17。



其他支援钻井工程的大马上市公司就比如有Muhibah (建造钻井台)、Favco, Carimin和Petra (提供建筑钻井台时的吊升与维修服务)、Deleum (提供钻井时的钢索服务、清理油井、弃井后续工作,以及很广的产品和服务等等)











Deleum 提供的钻井相关产品和服务非常广,从钻井台顶部到底部都有

既然要在坚硬的岩石层挖出一个那么深的通道,对钻头的材质是非常讲究的。钻油井时所使用的钻头大部分是采用碳化钨(Tungsten Carbide) 和钻石(Diamond)来打造,当你看到用钻石来钻地时不要感到惊讶,因为在众多比较容易获取的天然矿物中,钻石是世界上硬度最硬的物品。

其实在我们日常生活中也有很多物品是用钻石来切割和打磨的,就比如玻璃、地砖和轮胎的Rim都是用钻石来切割和打磨的。钻石是一个超高密度的固体,虽然很硬也超级耐磨,但害怕突然的撞击,突然的撞击会导致它内部的分子产生分裂,所以千万别看完这篇文章后用铁锤来敲你家的钻石,到时我可不负责的哦。



钻头的模样










Drilling Mud

在钻井的过程中,一种特别调制的泥浆(Drilling Mud / Drilling Fluid) 会从钻管里pump进去,并从钻头流出。这个泥浆的作用就是:

1) 冷却和润滑长期转动的钻头和钻管
2) 把岩石的粉碎物冲走,防止钻着的油井被粉碎物阻塞
3) 平衡钢管内部和外部的压力








这类泥浆从钻管上年被pump进去后,会通过外层的钢管流回地面上,然后将混有岩石粉碎物的泥浆过滤后,再不断的重复使用。在我国的上市公司里,就有一家是已经连续几十年专门供应这个泥浆的公司,它就是Scomi。



当钻油机每钻入特定的深度后,钻油台或钻油船就会放入钢管(casing)进去以避免刚钻好的油井坍塌,这类钢管需要非常坚固,同时也要抗腐蚀,因为越深的地底下产生的压力就越大,而且这一埋下去后就要确保能顺利开采几十年,让原油源源不断的从这个钢管涌上地面来。


OCTG Casing 钢管

据我所知,在本土钢铁上市公司里,Hiap Teck是唯一一家有供应油井钢管的上市公司,Hiap Teck通过旗下的品牌生产的Alpine OCTG Steel Casing就是用来固定油井用的。当这个钢管放入油井后,特制的洋灰泥灰被注入里面然后沿着钢管变得细缝流上去,那么这个油井钢管就被固定着了。






当钻井达到目标的深度后,地质学家们就会采集油井最深处的岩石进行研究分析,同时也会用一些仪器放入油井进行探测,以确保这个目标深度是真的有原油存在的。一切分析工作确认后,一种特别的油井射孔枪将放入油井的最深处然后引爆射穿钢管、洋灰以及油层的岩石,让油井底部出现很多小孔,让原油能够通过小孔流上地面。

这种油井射孔枪源自于军事武器的破甲弹,破甲弹采用化学热量凝聚后爆炸,产生很大的高温金属来射穿装甲车和坦克。这项相似的技术也用在射穿油井钢管和周围的岩石,以便让原油能够通过岩石和钢管留下的弹孔流上地面。





最后说说油井的种类,油井的底部可以分为竖式开采(vertical)和横式开采(Horizontal),就如第一集所说的,横式开采比较考验钻井的功夫,所以成本比较高,同样深度的油井,横式开采的成本要高出多一倍。不过由于横式开采的每日产量能比竖式开采还要高几倍,因此目前越来越多油井是采用横式开采的技术。




好了,过程二的钻井过程大致上就在这里告一段落,还有很多更深入的我就不一一解释了,因为担心读者觉得沉闷,接下来下一集我将分享原油生产过程,我国生产原油的上市公司就有Hibxxxx, Sumxxxx, 等等,油价上涨的话,这些公司的盈利也就跟着上涨,详细的就卖个关子先,敬请期待。。不过近期兼顾多项投资,的确有点忙碌,所以可能不会每星期都推出文章,不过这个油气系列还是会尽早分享完的。

也趁这个结尾分享我近期对brent 布兰特原油交易的操作:



左上角是4小时图,右上角是日线图,下方是1小时图。

我个人操作主要是中短期,所以采用4小时图为根基。4小时图的油价其实已经跌穿20MA和50MA还有红线的支撑线,要说死亡交叉也可以。所以在跌破支撑线时已经卖空,接近20MA时加码卖空多一次。

1小时图可以看到明显的新下跌趋势,高点越来越低,但同时也来到了青色重要的支撑位,如果跌破的话会继续卖空下去,如果跌不下去就短线减仓套利走人。短线减仓套利的原因是日线图的整体趋势还是很牛,价格也来到接近20MA,大趋势有调整后反弹向上的风险,同时Opec接下来的减产会议也是我需要留意的。

以目前来看,原油走势是短线看跌,长线还是保持看涨的局势,但这只是个人看法,没有买卖建议。下期再见。。

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牛奶冰
21/01/2018

免责申明:此文章纯属资讯分享,并非股票买卖建议或操纵股价意图,买卖自负,谢谢。

【牛奶冰】深入了解什么是原油+油气上中下游领域 (Part 3) 开采过程&FPSO

Author: icemilkinvestment | Publish ate: Sun, 27 May 2018, 06:46 PM

深入了解什么是原油+油气上中下游领域 (Part 3) 开采过程&FPSO

如果图片效果不清楚,可以点击这里阅读: http://icemilkinvestment.blogspot.my/2018/05/part-3.html



由于近期收到非常多读者强烈的反应,要我继续写原油故事分享的续集,所以我前两天一忙完我长达半年的大project后,就马上重开文档继续编写,在此真的感谢读者们的支持,我会尽我所能将原油的分享写得简单易懂分享给大家。不过不知道是不是因为近两个月原油大涨所以才反应如此热烈呢?如果换成我在原油低潮的时候写不知道会不会被丢鸡蛋 x_x

回顾上两集,我们分享了原油的基本介绍,也分享了原油的探井和钻井过程,这些过程都是还没看到油的。而这期我们将分享原油的开采过程,原油终于可以出土露面了。至于还没跟上前两集的读者,我建议先看了前两集在继续本集以便能有更流畅的了解。

第一集:http://icemilkinvestment.blogspot.com/2018/01/part-1.html
第二集:http://icemilkinvestment.blogspot.com/2018/01/part-2.html

过程三:开采过程 Production

一旦钻井工作完毕后,油井将会被一个外号称为“圣诞树”的井口封盖,由于这个井口具有很多的闸门valve,看上去就像圣诞树,加上大部分都被油成绿色,所以那边的工作人士都会叫它圣诞树。






这是位于海床的井口



这是一个已经开始运作的圣诞树,可以看到周边都有渗出来的原油

一个新的油井正式进入生产阶段时,地底下由水、泥土、岩石和气体的压力会推动原油自动从油管输出地面上来,就好像一个天然的原油喷泉一样喷射上来地面,所以一个新油井的生产产能是非常高的。如果读者想体验真实的效果,可以去买一罐coca-cola或pepsi,在开罐之前大力的摇摆,然后拉开扣环,你就能体验原油喷发的感觉了。


那喷出来的不是烟,而是黑金



但一般上过了几年后,地底下的压力逐渐与地面上的压力平衡后,原油不能自动的喷上地面,因此需要注入水或者气体(二氧化碳)进入地底下的储层,来挤压原油继续的输出地面上来,让油井保持原来的产量。由于水比油更重,会沉淀在油的底下,所以间接的会形成压力把油推上地面来。



抽油泵 Pumpjack


之前有读者好奇到底要怎么从地底下把油给抽上来呢,其实抽油泵的操作原理就和我们的祖先们采用水泵从地底下抽水上来是一样的。通过物理动力学和机械学,我们可以善用空间和空气的压力来抽取液体。

首先,抽油泵是由一个大的驴头作为垂直重力(Verticle Force),再通过发动机来带动在后头的另外两个旋转动力(Rotary Force) 来让整个抽油泵不断的24小时重复运作,每一次的上下摆动能够抽取5至40公升的原油上来。至于通过压力来抽取地底下的原油我制作了下面的图片来讲解:










原油处理 Processing

从油井开采出来的原油是不能马上送去提炼和使用的,因为刚出土的原油是参杂了水分、天然气和岩石的物质,这也是为什么刚开采的原油需要被处理了才能送到下游领域去提炼和加工。要将原油、水分和天然气区分开来,其实只需要一个非常简单的科学原理,那就是物体的密度(density)。这可以参考回初中就学过的基础科学知识,不知你们是否还记得呢。




水的密度: 每立方米997公斤 (997kg/m3)
原油的密度: 每立方米 870至920公斤 (870kg/m3 - 920kg/m3)
天然气的密度:每立方米1公斤 (1kg/m3)

简单来说,通过密度相比的话,天然气是最轻的,而原油也比水还要轻一些,所以油会浮在谁上面。正因为它们之间密度的差别,我们可以通过一个简单的分离器Separator把刚出土的原油液体将这三种物质分开来。







分离器内部构造 Separator


被分离后的水会进行加工处理,然后可以用来灌回地底下来增加地底的压力,以便让原油能够被压力推挤而流上地面来。分离后的纯原油就会送往储存或输送以供下游的用途,而天然气则可以通过管道直接输往分销站。


相关上市公司



我国上市公司里,有涉及原油开采和生产的公司就有Hibiscus, Sumatec 和 Reach。更早前还有Cliq和Sona,但已经停止交易了。

Sumatec 前身的业务是建设油气设施和工程服务EPCC的,在2011年机缘巧合下与Markmore签约合作开发位于哈萨克西部的岸上油田,并且在2014年开始开采生产石油。

Reach Energy在2013年以特别用途上市公司SPAC在交易所上市并筹集7.5亿成为全马最大的SPAC公司,之后在2016年收购Palaeontol B.V的60% 股份开启同样在哈萨克西部的原油生产之路。据我所知,Sumatec和Reach所开采的油田各自的距离并不远,算是邻居

Hibiscus 是我国首家的SPAC上市公司,在2011年上市筹资大约2.4亿后在隔年收购Lime Petroleum迈入原油开采业务,当时的原油开发和生产集中在英国和澳洲的岸外油田。

说到hibicus,我就大略的总结它的一些前景。首先说他英国的产油量,目前每天的产量是3500桶左右,但是会逐年提高,预计在2020年可以达到每日5000桶以上。一旦沙巴那边开始贡献,预计沙巴那里每天的产量会达到6000-9000桶,未来最理想情况可以去到每天15000桶。所以两边的产量加起来可能在未来两年会达到每日10000至18000桶,产量会提高3倍。这还没包括未来可能打铁趁热重新启动在澳洲已经搁置3年了的油田开发。






在英国Anasuria的每开采一桶原油的平均成本是大约30-35美元,而沙巴的开采成本是每桶15美元,因此在沙巴的开采开始贡献后,将能够把平均开采成本大幅的拉低到一个相对安全的价钱。随着brent oil已经触及80美元,这将为他们未来的盈利带来比预期更大的贡献。

接下来2个季度的业绩应该还没有什么看头,让他爆发的业绩估计会在11月内公布的时候才看得到,只要原油保持在60-70元以上相信到明年将是hibiscus的一个丰收年,预计EBIT会从去年的全年0.6亿提高到2亿或更高。虽然它的未来业绩预计会带来显著的增长,但是以目前的估值来看,相信已经反映了一部分未来一年的业绩,所以不要盲目追高,可以配合技术面来操作,选择适当的时候进出场。


深海领域的巨无霸:浮式石油生产储油轮 FPSO




FPSO是一艘全能的岸外采油工具,从它的全名Floating production storage and offloading 我们就可以知道这艘油轮具备海上处理与过滤原油、海上储油、以及海上输出,所有合为一体的功能。之所以叫它深海巨无霸就是因为他几乎就是3个足球场那么大,你从头走路到尾可能也需要花上5分钟才能走完。




在70年代的时候,很多油气公司想闯入深海区开采原油,可是岸上和深海的距离太远,要建立从深海通往岸上的输送管道是非常昂贵。除此之外,有些位于深海的油田与油田之间有一些距离,又或者是油田的储备量太少,不值得耗资去建立新平台。




FPSO在这些种种不利的情况下就能很好的发挥它的优势:

1) 它能够独自采油,本身就是一个开采平台
2) 能独自处理和分离原油,将水分、天然气、岩石碎从原油里分开来
3) 能将它位置附近的其他平台采的油输送到自己船上进行处理和分离
4) 自身拥有庞大的储存空间,一般上FPSO都能够储存几十万甚至上百万桶原油体积的储存空间
5) 能够将分离后的水和天然气重新注入地底下来增加地底下的压力
6) 能够将处理好的油输出给指定时间到达的运输油轮 (Shutter Oil Tanker)
7) 能够有效率的开采一些几年内就耗尽的小油田,开采完毕了也可以迅速迁移去下一个油田位置,节省建造新平台的开支。




顺便一提,Hibiscus位于英国的Anasuria油田就是使用FPSO开采的。





相关上市公司


我国目前拥有提供FPSO租赁业务的上市公司就有MISC, Bumi Armada, Yinson。这三家都是世界级有名的FPSO服务提供者,以MISC的市值最大,身为Petronas的子公司之一也是KLCI 30大成分股之一。但论基本面素质和技术面趋势的话,Yinson目前是这三家里最好的。而支援类似这三家公司的其他岸外船务支援型或造船公司包括Alam, Dayang, MHB, Perdana, Icon, Coastal等等。


好了,整个油气领域的上游就告一段落,下一期我将带大家去了解油气领域的中游过程,但或许没那么快整理完,因为刚忙完大project,过两天会先去袋鼠国旅行散散心。不过请继续关注我们,下半年将会有更多的分享给大家。下期见~

FB Page:牛奶冰投资分享站
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牛奶冰
27/05/2018

免责申明:此文章纯属资讯分享,并非股票买卖建议或操纵股价意图,买卖自负,谢谢。