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Wednesday, January 31, 2018

Where is your edge?

March 25, 2015
Gary Norden




It should be obvious that to build a sustainable trading career requires a trader to have edge over at least some market participants. For short term traders such as day traders, scalpers etc it is even more vital to understand how and why you have edge - when you are trading for just a few seconds or minutes, trading should be less about prediction and more about exploiting edge. This is what I call being the bookmaker rather than the punter.

Would you be able to answer the following 3 questions with precise answers?

1. Who do you have edge over?

2. How and why do you gain that edge?

3. How exactly are you exploiting that edge?

In my experience, most traders struggle to provide adequate answers to these questions. Often the answers are centered around 'reading' markets or charts better than others which to me is far too subjective to be classified as precise answers.

It is a key aspect of my scalping tuition to teach traders exactly who we have edge over, how we gain that edge and ways to exploit it. As well as identifying who we need to trade against we also know when not to trade.

Knowing when not to trade is an often overlooked discipline but it is essential for traders. Profitability comes from both finding good trades and avoiding bad ones and in my experience too many traders are not equipped to know when not to trade. In part this is because they cannot specifically pinpoint where their edge is.

So examine the 3 questions above and try to answer them honestly and precisely; if you cannot or are not happy with your answers then you at least know where you need to start in terms of defining and improving your trading strategy.

No BS Day Trading - Understanding context and living in the now

Why Charts Don't Help Scalpers

2009 E-class W212 - design team talks about design

E-class w212 vs w213. Comparison design Mercedes E 200 two generations.

Tuesday, January 30, 2018

Mercedes-Benz E-Class W212 Fascination Trailer

Mercedes-Benz E-Class W212 "Dream Star" Trailer

Spread Trading and Market Neutral Trading Ideas - Recorded 1-25-18

Scalping Futures

Learn How to Trade Spreads Intra-Day for Lower Risk Trades

Futures Spread Trade Setup - In 5 Minutes

Introduction to Spread Trading - In 10 Minutes

[转贴] 改善资产素质省成本 3回银整合最利BIMB

Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Tue, 30 Jan 2018, 12:59 PM
2018年1月30日




(吉隆坡29日讯)政府致力探讨合并国民储蓄银行(BSN)、Muamalat银行和大马回教银行,同样持有回教银行的BIMB控股(BIMB,5258,主板金融股)并未引起购兴,但分析员相信,若合并成功有利BIMB控股。

兴业投行研究分析员相信,这合并促成更大型的资产规模,带来协同效应。而资产收益率更高,有助推高净利息赚幅。

不过,分析员也点出,合并后的公司需要精简营运和积极节省成本,推高整体的投资回酬(ROE)至回教银行所达至的13%水平。

三家银行累积贷款规模,会是回教银行截至2016年杪400亿令吉贷款组合的一倍。

另外,BSN和Muamalat银行的资产收益分别为5.8%和5.2%,将推高合并后企业的整体净利息赚幅。

融资方面,回教银行业能借助于BSN广泛的网络,以扩大存款规模,并翻倍来往与储蓄户头(CASA)的存款至270亿令吉。

BSN旗下拥有403家分行,这也导致员工开销颇大,成本收入比率高达78%。而Muamalat银行及回教银行成本收入比率则介于58至60%。

由于资源重叠,分析员相信,合并后合理化成本空间大,提升效率后即可降低成本。

回顾过去12个月,BIMB控股的股价落后富时隆综指和同行;该股引不起购兴,主因或许是源自潜在合并的消息。

惟兴业投行分析员认为,这揣测不合理。

首先,Syarikat Takaful贡献约20%净利,投资回酬更高企23%,BIMB控股不太可能会脱售。

另外,若三家回教银行成功合并,得以节省成本,及改善BSN和Muamalat银行的资产素质,对BIMB控股有利。



呆账率低 净利展望稳定

BIMB控股投资回酬13%,远比BSN(3.2%)和Muamalat银行(7.3%)出色。

分析员分析,除了成本收入比较低,回教银行的投资回酬,主要归功于其维持资产素质的能力。

“我们相信,BIMB的信贷风险管理政策将有助于改善合并后企业的资产素质。”

目前,BSN和Muamalat银行的呆账率企于2.5%和2.1%;而BIMB控股仅有0.98%。

整体来说,分析员相信,若合并成功将对BIMB有利,并持续看涨该股表现,因其有能力交出稳定的净利。





http://www.enanyang.my/news/20180130/改善资产素质省成本br-3回银整合最利bimb/

Useful Knowledge for Investors - Koon Yew Yin

Author: Koon Yew Yin | Publish date: Tue, 30 Jan 2018, 09:11 AM

How I Started Serious Investing in the Stock Market?

In 1983/4 when China gave notice to the British Government to recover the sovereignty of Hong Kong, the stock market crashed and the Hang Seng index dropped to 600. There were so much of cheap sales for me to buy. When China agreed to give another 50 years extension, the market rebounded sharply. I made so much money that I bought 46% of a small stock broking company called “Kaiser Stock and Share CO Ltd”. That was how I started serious investing in the stock market.

The key to my success in share investing is my ability to control my emotion of fear and greed. I was not afraid of the Communists taking over the rule of Hong Kong.

Since then, I found so much fun and enjoyment in investing in shares. Here are all the knowledge I have acquired during my long experience in the stock market which I like to share with you.

1. Long term investors, like Warren Buffet make more money than short term investors.

2. Fund managers often cannot beat the stock market index.

3. Professional stock market analysts always write articles to favour the companies they visited. Remember all CEO and CFO will always say good things about the companies they manage. You must always read analysts’ recommendations with a pinch of salt.

4. Day traders who trade too often lose money due to transaction costs.

5. Financial and technical analysts always can make money, but they can make more money if they look at the company’s business and its profit growth potential.

6. For FA and TA practitioners to be more successful they should have a good business sense to take advantage of a sudden trend reversal instead of waiting to buy when the price moves above the 70 day moving average.

7 Remember the stock market is not like your rich father who would simply pay up your debts. You cannot get rich if you are stupid.

8 To be able to make money from the stock market, you must outsmart the losers.

9 There are more losers than winners. Losers are born every day. Otherwise, there will be no more ikan bilis for big sharks to eat.

10 The movement of any share is due to the number of the buyers or sellers. If there are more buyers than sellers the price will go up but if there are more sellers than buyers, the price will come down.

11 If you have been losing money, you must change your investment method. If you continue to lose money, you must stop investing because your brain is not wired for share investment.

12 You must develop the ability to control your emotion of fear and greed to maximise your profit.

13 You must not fall in love with the shares you have bought. You must sell to take profit. You must always bear in mind that profit is not a dirty word. When to sell is always a puzzle.

14 I must admit my mistake in being so bullish on Hengyuan. I wrote a few articles with good intention to help readers to make money. As a result, I did not sell when it went above Rm 19. I am too egotistic. But when I see a sudden trend reversal, I started selling. I have to sell at lower prices.

15 When there is good news, investors rush in to buy the stock until it is overpriced. When there is bad news, shareholders rush to dump their holdings as if there is no more tomorrow.

Why should the price keep falling? Although the 4th quarter result will be good, the profit for 2018 will be affected by lower crack spread, down time for upgrading the refinery and payment of tax.

This is a classic case of a stock that is oversold. Based on PE ratio, it is still very cheap. I still have some Hengyuan shares and I have stopped selling. I may buy back when there is a trend reversal.

What is Luck?

To be successful in share investment you must have luck. What is luck? You may think that luck comes from the sky or heaven.

No! To be able to make money from the stock market you must outsmart the losers.

To outsmart the losers, you must have luck and the definition of luck is when preparation meets opportunity.



Preparation means that you must know the fundamentals for share selection, some knowledge of financial, technical analysis, good business sense and the ability to control your emotion to think logically.

In the stock market, the share price cannot see you and you cannot see your own face.

These Mark Twain’s quotes are relevant for everyone especially those stupid commentators on i3investor:

“Keep away from people who try to belittle your ambitions. Small people always do that, but the really great make you feel that you, too, can become great.” – Mark Twain

“Better to keep your mouth shut and appear stupid than to open it and remove all doubt.” – Mark Twain

“Kindness is the language which the deaf can hear and the blind can see.” – Mark Twain

“The fear of death follows from the fear of life. A man who lives fully is prepared to die at any time.” – Mark Twain

Good luck to all investors.

Lotte Chemical Titan 4Q net profit up 30%, declares 23 sen dividend

Adam Aziz / theedgemarkets.com
January 30, 2018 14:47 pm +08

KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 30): Lower tax and higher non-operating income helped Lotte Chemical Titan Holding Bhd (LCT) record a 30% improvement in net profit to RM378.15 million in its fourth quarter ended Dec 31, 2017 (4QFY17), from RM290.86 million a year ago.

Earnings per share were however diluted at 16.64 sen, from 16.83 sen in 4QFY16.

Quarterly revenue declined by a marginal 1.4% to RM2.12 billion from RM2.15 billion in 4QFY16, primarily due to reduced plant load at its Indonesia polyethylene plant and decrease in sales volume of by-product. Average plant utilisation stood at 86% in the quarter under review against 90% in 4QFY16.

The group also recommended a first and final dividend of 23 sen per share for the financial year ended Dec 31, 2017 (FY17), up from 6.95 sen a year ago, subject to shareholders' approval at the forthcoming annual general meeting, payable on a date to be announced later.

For the full FY17, LCT saw net profit decline by 19.1% to RM1.06 billion from RM1.32 billion the previous year, no thanks to lower margin spread amid lower utilisation rates of its facilities.

Revenue also slid 3.84% to RM7.82 billion, from RM8.14 billion in FY16, amid lower sales volume as a result of two statutory routine turnaround activities in its Malaysian facilities, but offset by a 17.2% increase in average product selling price.

On prospects, LCT anticipates demand growth for petrochemicals will outpace the rate of new supplies in the region, resulting in a resilient market in the near term.

"We expect our production output in 2018 to be normalised in view of no major planned plant shut down. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, our board expects our performance for FY18 to remain positive," it added.

At 2.22pm, LCT shares were traded up 6 sen or 1.18% at RM5.14, with 330,000 shares done, giving it a market capitalisation of RM11.68 billion.

CIMB: Malaysian Pacific Industries 1H profit misses forecast

Christopher Lim / theedgemarkets.com
January 30, 2018 15:02 pm +08

KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 30): CIMB Investment Bank Bhd downgraded its Malaysian Pacific Industries Bhd (MPI) earnings forecast and share target price (TP) after MPI reported first-half profit, which missed market forecast.

Yesterday, MPI said net profit fell to RM77.44 million in the first half ended Dec 31, 2017 (1HFY18) from RM94.7 million a year earlier. Today, CIMB wrote in a note that MPI's 1HFY18 core net profit missed expectations at 42% and 44% of CIMB's and consensus full-year forecast respectively due to higher-than-expected raw material cost.

"We cut our FY18-20F EPS by 10-14% to account for the higher raw material costs and to reflect the strengthening of the ringgit against US$. We apply a lower average forex assumption of RM4.00 for FY18-20F, in line with CIMB's forecast. However, we see downside risk to earnings if the ringgit continues to strengthen against US$. Based on our sensitivity analysis, we estimate that every 1% movement in ringgit/US$ could impact the group's EPS by 1.5%," CIMB said.

CIMB said it maintained its hold call on MPI shares with a lower TP at RM12 versus RM15 previously.

Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd said it maintained its sell call for MPI shares with a lower TP of RM10.30 versus RM12 previously.

"On the whole, (MPI's) results were below expectations accounting for 43% and 42% of our and the street's FY18 estimates (respectively)," Affin Hwang said.

Wellcall Holdings rated new overweight at JPMorgan

Bloomberg / Bloomberg
January 30, 2018 06:47 am +08

KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 30): J.P. Morgan initiated coverage of Wellcall Holdings Bhd with a recommendation of overweight.

JPMorgan predicted Wellcall Holdings will trade at RM2.10 within a year, implying a 43 percent increase from the last regular trade. The new target is 15 percent above the consensus average of RM1.82 and is at the high end of forecasts ranging from RM1.55 to RM2.10. Wellcall Holdings had 1 buy recommendation, 1 hold and 0 sells previously.

Analysts raised their consensus one-year target price for the stock by 15 percent in the past three months. Forecasts range from RM1.55 to RMR2.10.

Monday, January 29, 2018

[转贴] 晶片龍頭高通的第二戰場:汽車、5G、IoT

Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Mon, 29 Jan 2018, 10:14 AM
作者:智東西 | 2018 / 01 / 29
文章來源:雪球 | 圖片來源:Berber

晶片巨頭們越來越不務正業了。

舉個例子,在今年高通 (Qualcomm,QCOM-US) 的 CES 發佈會上,高通總裁克里斯蒂亞諾·阿蒙 (Cristiano Amon) 全程只提了一次驍龍 845,完全沒有提到手機晶片業務的新動向。


(高通總裁克里斯蒂亞諾·阿蒙 Cristiano Amon)

與之相反的是,Amon 全程都在專注介紹高通除了手機業務之外的所有業務,比如宣佈了高通在語音助手、汽車、 5G 等領域的合作夥伴,推出了一款無線耳機專用的低功耗 SoC,以及聯合臉書 (Facebook,FB-US) 、小米三家共同打造的 Oculus VR 一體機等。

除了高通之外,其他晶片廠商如英特爾 (Intel,INTC-US) 、聯發科 (2454-TW) 等也都分別在 CES 上大談 IoT 、量子計算、車聯網、藍芽連接等“不務正業”的主題,各自的主營業務反而不再提起。

造成這些晶片巨頭“不務正業”的原因,大多是因為主營業務或市場逐步進入飽和、增量微薄,或競爭格局已趨於平穩、難以再生動盪。

為了推動公司發展,晶片巨頭們紛紛開始尋找其他增量市場 — 5G、汽車、IoT 等新生領域,憑藉著其龐大的市場潛力與快速成長的市場體量,逐漸成為了晶片巨頭們廝殺的第二戰場。



在今年 CES 2018 上,我們看見了高通的另一面:一個手握強大的智慧型手機通訊與連接技術、擁有優秀高性能低功耗晶片設計水平的巨頭,正將它這些年在行動終端積累的技術改良移植到各個領域,在 IoT 、 5G 、汽車等新生行業中迅速紮根,佔領市場。

據瞭解,在 2017 年裡,以上這些新業務的在高通中的營收總和達到了 30 億美元,與 2015 年相比有著 75% 的成長。
打造 5 套 IoT 產品線,每天賣出 100 萬塊

高通產品管理副總裁 Seshu Madhavapeddy 說,目前,高通的 IoT 產品出貨量已經達到了 100 萬塊/天,成為一個體量巨大的業務。



上文提到,高通這些年在行動終端投入了大量的研發資源,積累下了眾多技術 IP,而這些技術在很多領域都可以應用。比如:網路/通訊連接技術、影音處理技術、無線協議安全技術等。

這些技術雖然源自於手機晶片業務,但他們 IoT 產品市場中一樣被需要。由於在行動技術當中有著豐富的積累,高通能夠快速開發出訂製化的 IoT 解決方案。

目前,高通在 IoT 領域打造了 5 套不同的晶片產品系列,這五類 SoCs 產品包括:行動 (Mobile) 、應用 (Applications) 、通訊 (LTE) 、網路連接 (Connectivity) 、以及藍芽 (Bluetooth) 。



之所以要打造 5 個系列這麼多,是因為 IoT 市場複雜而多樣化:比如在打造無人機、智慧攝影機等產品時,晶片需要提供大量的邊緣運算能力。但像感測器、智慧燈泡等產品則並不需要強大的運算能力,反而在連接方面有著很高的要求。

這五類晶片從體積到功能強大程度都是從大到小依次排列,行動 (Mobile) 系列 SoCs 是其中最強大、功能最全的一個產品線,能夠滿足最為高端 IoT 市場需求。

應用 (Applications) 系列 SoCs 則大多應用在智慧攝影機、智慧顯示螢幕、智慧穿戴等產品中。

通訊 (LTE) 系列 SoCs 體積更小、運算能力有限,主要用在智慧城市等產品中。

網路連接 (Connectivity) 系列 SoCs 跟通訊 SoCs 略語差別,它主要提供的是Wi-Fi連接,被大量用在智慧家居產品中。

最後,最小也是最輕便的藍芽 (Bluetooth) 系列 SoCs ,被應用在智慧照明、智慧衣物等產品中。

雖然價錢與運算能力各不相同,但是這五類晶片在安全性上面的等級都是一樣的,因為每種 IoT 產品都需要極高的安全保障。


(高通智慧語音平台)

此外,在本次的 CES 上,高通不僅更新了自己的智慧語音平台 (Smart Audio Platform) 與智慧音箱參考設計方案,還和 Google 合作推出了 2 套新的智慧家居 Home Hub 平台。

它們是兩套智慧家居產品的完整解決方案,包括高通 IoT 系列晶片和 Google Android Things 軟體系統,內置 Google Assistant 語音助手,能夠讓 OEM 廠商用高通的硬體和 Google 的軟體快速打造 IoT 設備,如智慧音箱、智慧冰箱、智慧攝影機、機器人等。

目前,聯想 (0992-HK) 、哈曼 (Harman,HAR-US) 、Jabil (JBL-US) 、LG (003550-KR) 等都宣佈用採用了這個 Home Hub 平台。


(LG 採用高通與 Google 的技術打造的智慧音箱)
深耕 15 年車聯網,以 V2X 車載通訊切入自動駕駛

同樣是上文的理論,高通這些年在行動終端投入了大量的研發資源,積累下了眾多技術 IP,而這些技術在很多領域都可以應用 — 在汽車方面,這些技術包括了網路技術、無線充電技術等。

高通汽車業務產品市場高級總監葉志平介紹,目前高通的汽車業務主要包括三大板塊:車聯網、車載系統、以及自動駕駛/ADAS。

現在市面上幾乎所有大型汽車品牌,包括別克 (BUICK) 、比亞迪 (002594-CN) 、凱迪拉克 (Cadillac) 、福特 (FORD,F-US) 、Land Rover、本田 (Honda,7267-JP) 等在內,都在不同方面使用了高通的技術。
車聯網業務


(高通展台上的車聯網業務展示)

先從車聯網業務來說,高通從 2G、3G 時代起就一直通在為汽車廠商提供各類技術,距今已經超過 15 年的應用經驗。

到了 4G 時代,車聯網領域也湧現出一大堆意想不到的用戶場景,例如車內的連接方式從藍芽時代發展到了雲端互聯,車載系統的使用從簡單的本地音頻,發展到了影音頻線上播放等,換言之就是車聯網業務發生了巨大的變化。

而到了 5G 時代,隨著連接速度的進一步加快和延遲的進一步縮小,也將會有更多的車聯網服務與應用場景出現。
車載娛樂系統業務


(高通展台上的車載娛樂系統業務展示)

雖然與車聯網相比,高通的車載娛樂系統業務還是個只有三年歷史的“新生兒”。但是高通還是盡力將其為行動設備研發的處理器和通訊晶片移植到了汽車領域,推出了驍龍 602A、驍龍 820A 兩款車載運算終端以及驍龍 X12 和 X5 4GLTE 通訊晶片。

需要注意的是,這些運算晶片與通訊模組不僅能夠為車載操作系統提供運算與連接能力,其還能為倒車影像、HUD 抬頭顯示、全液晶儀表甚至 ADAS 等功能服務。目前在全球 20 家頂尖車廠中,已經有超過 12 家選擇了高通提供的車載娛樂系統方案。
自動駕駛

提到汽車業務,自然少不了現在大火的自動駕駛技術。但由於高通旗下的行動晶片並不以大運算力著稱,因此其選擇另闢蹊徑,從高精地圖、V2X 車載通訊等領域入手。


(V2X 技術解讀)

高通的Cellular-V2X通訊技術就致力於為汽車提供包括 V2V (車與車) 、V2P (車與人) 、V2N (車與網路) 、V2I (車與基礎設施) 等類型的通訊技術。例如在 V2V 方向上,高通能讓兩輛汽車在相隔 450 米以內就能察覺到對方的存在併進行通訊,以瞭解對方的行駛方向與速度信息。這種通訊技術在拐角等視線受阻的情況下能夠有效避免交通事故。

高通在去年推出了專門針對這一技術的 9150 C-V2X 晶片,預計 2018 年將會進行商用測試,為部分客戶提供樣品,到了 2019 年投入量產。此外,9150 C-V2X 能同時兼容 4G 和 5G 網路,在未來可以直接幫助汽車升級到 5G 連接。
2019 年第一批高通旗艦機用上 5G

說起 5G 晶片,高通無疑是其研發的領先者。

目前, 5G 已經是萬眾期待的技術,AT&T (T-US) 、Verizon (VZ-US) 、中國移動 (0941-HK) 以及韓國 KT (030200-KR) 等世界主流營運商都在熱情地迎接 5G 時代的來臨。從美國到中國,從日本到歐洲,現在全球不同國家都在進行著規模宏大的 5G 部署,從 4G- 5G 的市場發展會比從 2G-3G、從 3G-4G 的發展還要更快。



業內普遍認為 5G 將會在2020年正式進入商用,而高通則認為 — 我們 2019 年就可以!

為了達到這一點,高通除了在連接、測試等方面投入了巨額研發之外,在本次 CES 發佈會上,Amon 還宣佈高通將打造一個全新架構射頻前端 (RF-Front End) 架構,該架構將同時支持 4G 與 5G ,目的是輔助設備從 4G 過渡到 5G 時代。這項前端射頻設計已有 Google 、HTC、Sony、三星等廠商確認在其產品裡採用。

Amon在 5G 論壇上說,到了 2019 年早期,市面上會出現第一批用上高通 5G 技術的旗艦手機品牌。


(右邊三位分別為:高通總裁 Cristiano Amon、百度 COO 陸奇、Verizon 執行副總裁兼CTO Hans Vestberg)

隨著 5G 時代來臨,我們將會越來越依賴雲端的存儲與運算,而不依賴於手機的內存容量,此外雲服務商也能夠積累更多的數據,進行更多的運算與機器學習。

此外 Amon 還認為, 5G 還將革命眾多用戶場景,比如,當網路延遲降到 1 毫秒以內時,現在用戶使用社交網路帶來全新的交互體驗 — 這數據已經接近現實生活中的延遲。

智東西認為,只有網路連接速度進一步提升後,如車輛網、 IoT 這些智慧終端聯網後帶來的用戶體驗才能真正過關。因此, 5G 是高通其他所有業務的重要技術基石,也是高通在這些領域中的立足之本。
結語:晶片巨頭的第二戰場

除了上述提到的 IoT 、汽車、 5G 三大領域外,高通還在本次 CES 上宣佈了有關視頻處理、虛擬現實、“永遠連接”PC (Always-Connected PC) 等項目的新進展。


(高通展台上的 Always-Connected PC 展示)

巧合的是,這些領域正好也是高通的“老對手”英特爾今年在展位上大肆宣傳的領域,在各自主營業務日趨飽和的當下,晶片巨頭們紛紛進軍這些新興且潛力巨大的藍海市場,難免再度狹路相逢,開闢第二片戰場。

目前, 5G 在近兩年內商用已經是可預見的科技進程,隨著 5G 技術的推廣與商用,汽車、 IoT 等市場也會應聲而起,逐漸發展壯大 — IoT 市場其實現在已然具備一定規模,早期玩家如聯發科等晶片公司已經初步嘗到了這一市場的紅利。

高通憑藉著其在通訊、 5G 等業務的強大技術積累,以及低功耗高性能晶片的設計能力,應該能在這個第二戰場中站穩腳跟,圈出自己的市場份額。但這市場中優秀的玩家遠不止一個,最終勝負幾何,則還要有待分解了。

https://www.stockfeel.com.tw/%e6%99%b6%e7%89%87%e9%be%8d%e9%a0%ad%e9%ab%98%e9%80%9a%e7%9a%84%e7%ac%ac%e4%ba%8c%e6%88%b0%e5%a0%b4%ef%bc%9a%e6%b1%bd%e8%bb%8a%e3%80%815g%e3%80%81iot/

利好支撑短线买进.砂劳越油棕前景看俏


Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Mon, 29 Jan 2018, 05:43 PM

(吉隆坡29日讯)砂劳越油棕(SOP,5126,主板种植组)受油棕产量走扬、种植面积树龄偏低以及作为当地少数棕油提炼业者等利好支持,获利前景看俏,分析员认为该公司价值被低估,建议“短线买进”。

肯纳格研究预测,在上述利好烘托下,该公司2017至2018财年净利有望分别按年上扬66%和4%,至2亿2000万和2亿3000万令吉。

针对该公司鲜果串产量表现,肯纳格则预测砂劳越油棕2017和2018财年的鲜果串产量将分别走高36%和7%,至13亿7000万公吨和14亿7000万公吨。

2017年支持该公司鲜果串走高的原因包括:气候改善和收购升阳油棕带动,而2018年则是因为成熟种植面积增加。

值得留意的是,该公司鲜果串产量不断增加,甚至令该公司减少从外部购买鲜果串。

肯纳格研究指出,该公司也是砂拉越5家棕油提炼公司之一,估算占了该州属32%的棕油提炼产能。

种植成本偏低也是该公司优点之一,在2016年每公吨棕油生产成本为840令吉,而肯纳格预测2018年棕油价为2400令吉,较去年每公吨2600令吉较低,主要是市场供应过剩的缘故。

在去年,该公司从升阳油棕手中收购47公顷的种植地,使手中地库增加了至120.3公顷以及种植面积扩大至87.7公顷。

该公司2016年总种植面积当中,12%和51%分别是未成熟与低树龄油棕树,换句话说,该公司树龄组合有多达63%是属于年轻油棕树。

肯纳格进一步解释,砂劳越油棕的平均树龄为10年,该公司计划每年翻种种植面积的1.8至1.9%,分析员预测该公司鲜果串产量将从2016年的1670万公吨,在未来2至3年内走高至1750至1850万公吨。

综合以上,肯纳格研究给予该公司“短线买进”评级,目标价为4令吉85仙。



http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1723699/利好支撑短线买进.砂劳越油棕前景看俏

WII'm 27 and I've saved $200,000 — here are the 7 best pieces of advice I can give you about money - SeanS

Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Mon, 29 Jan 2018, 06:05 PM

The Money Wizard is a blogger who goes by the pen name Sean. He works as a financial analyst and has saved nearly $200,000 through retirement accounts and investing in low-cost index funds. He hopes to retire by his late 30s.

When I was 16 years old, I hung up my hard hat after another brutal day digging ditches under the Texas sun. That day was special, because it was payday, and I'd finally have enough money to pass $500 in my bank account.

By the time I was 18, that $500 had grown enough to start investing in the stock market.

By age 25, I had $100,000, and by age 26 — $150,000. I'm now 27 years old, and I've saved nearly $200,000.

The way the storyline plays out, you'd think I was either a stock picking genius or a fast-paced career superstar.

The truth is, I'm neither of those. My stock investments mostly underperformed compared to the benchmarks, and until very recently, my salary wasn't much more than the average income in my city.

In reality, I'm a normal guy with a decent job, who was lucky enough to stumble onto some money tips early in life. Here are my seven best:

1. Get a degree that actually pays

These days college gets a pretty bad rep. And I agree, the skyrocketing price of tuition is concerning. But I'm also with Warren Buffett on this one – the best investment you can ever make is in yourself.

Here's the key. You need to view college for what is: a 4-year transaction to purchase a career. Especially when student loans are involved.

And just like you wouldn't take out a mortgage before researching the value of a house, it's equally important to consider the value of a degree.

Some degrees pay well, others... not so much. Research salary statistics, interview people in the field, and attend career fairs.

As a finance and economics major, I was able to quickly find a job as a financial analyst, even at a time when the labor market was iffy about its economic recovery. Now I hope my strategically chosen degree continues building a foundation for a lifetime of earnings.

2. Avoid consumer debt

Once you're out of school and on your way to making money, the next best step is to avoid the trap of consumer debt.

Put simply, it's nearly impossible to build wealth if you're leaking money every month through auto loans and credit card debt.

Benjamin Franklin, one of the country's first early retirees, famously said that a small leak will sink a great ship. And he's right; trying to build wealth while paying interest is like rowing against the current. With a leaky boat.

In order to avoid debt, I bought my $13,000 car without a loan, and although I use credit cards for the rewards points, I've never paid a cent of interest.

This keeps compound interest working for me, rather than forcing myself to swim against the current.

3. Embrace index funds


Like most beginning investors, when I started investing I imagined myself the next Warren Buffet. All my stock picks were sure home runs, I thought, and I'd be crushing the market in no time.

In reality, my not-so-hot stock choices lagged the indexes. By the end, my ambition mixed with greed cost me thousands of dollars.

This shouldn't have been a surprise. There's simply too much proof – individual stock pickers, traders, and actively managed mutual funds just can't compete with the efficiency of index funds.

Don't try to outsmart the market; you're fighting a losing battle. Instead, save yourself the time AND money by choosing a low-fee index fund.

4. Decide if your spending is actually making you happy

Government surveys show that 52% of the average person's budget is spent on housing, cars, and materialistic purchases.

Does a house with all those extra bedrooms really make your life happier, or are you just creating more work for yourself?

When you part with your money, are you carefully calculating the potential benefits, or are you just following what your friends, society, and billions of dollars of advertising is telling you to do?

For me, I realized stainless steel appliances and granite countertops weren't impacting my life, so I chose a more mediocre apartment to save hundreds each month in rent. I also decided my morning commute would be pretty similar whether I was driving a $30,000 car or a $13,000 one, so I found a ride cheap enough to buy in cash.

Figure out how to reduce your no-fun spending to the bare bones, and saving becomes a breeze. The best part? If you decide something really will make you happy, you'll easily be able to afford the splurge.

5. Tax advantages are, you know… advantages. Use them!


Retirement accounts, like a 401(k) or IRA, grow tax free. In the case of a traditional retirement account, you only pay taxes on the back end. For a Roth account, you only pay taxes on the front end.

Compared this to a non-retirement account, where you have to pay taxes on the back end, front end, and even some of the middle… end. These tax advantages are huge!

Even a retirement account with slightly higher fees allows your money to grow faster, which means you can retire hundreds of thousands of dollars richer.

I still remember using one nervous click of the mouse to raise my 401(k) contributions from 5% to over 25% of my salary. The decision paid off though, and my nerves were quickly eased when I saw the staggering speed your money can grow without the constant drag of taxes.

6. Avoid lifestyle inflation


As we move through life, it's easy to want to spend more and more money rewarding ourselves. Most people give into this temptation, start jealously eyeing the latest purchases of their friends, and begin inflating their lifestyles accordingly.

These over inflated lifestyles feed off each other, creating a vicious cycle of "keeping up with the Joneses." Like a giant bubble, the lifestyles grow so big there's eventually nowhere else to go. The Joneses are tapped out, and they're left no choice but to spend all their time and money protecting their over-inflated bubbles from anything that could cause a pop.

I say, screw the Joneses. Chances are, they're a financial mess and can't afford most of what they're buying anyway.

Instead, recognize that your life is already awesome, and hold steady. Your savings, and ultimately your lifestyle, will blow past the Joneses in no time.

7. Wealth is built through consistency, not home runs.


Shortly behind never getting started, one of the most common investing mistakes people make is investing too aggressively.

It's an understandable mistake to make. Our minds aren't really designed to intuitively grasp the incredible power of compound interest, and trying to envision years into the future quickly fogs into a hazy blur.

As a result, many beginning investors mistakenly think the only way to get rich is to take huge risks. They swing for the fences, then find themselves frustrated when their dangerous bets lose money.

As I look back on my path so far, I'm amazed by something simple. I haven't hit any jackpots. Hell, I haven't even come close. I didn't create a hugely profitable company, I didn't get rich quick on a 10-bagger stock, and I didn't strike gold on any highly leveraged real estate deals.

Instead, almost all my investments are pretty darn boring. I invested in low-fee index funds, took advantage of retirement accounts, and consistently saved a lot of money.

I wasn't swinging for the fences. I've just hit a lot of singles, over and over again.

We live in an incredible time of opportunity. The 401(k) account exists. Tax rates are low, at least historically. And the invention of the index fund means anyone with access to a phone or computer can outperform hot shot money managers, and pay only pennies to do so.

The singles are there for the taking. Keep shooting for singles, and before you know it, you'll realize you've hit a home run.

http://www.businessinsider.com/best-advice-money-millennial-saver-investor-2017-9/

Public Invest Research raises Cypark TP after new contract secured

Neily Syafiqah Eusoff / theedgemarkets.com
January 29, 2018 12:48 pm +08

KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 29): Public Invest Research raised its target price (TP) of Cypark Resources Bhd to RM2.81 from RM2.62 previously, after the company clinched a RM260.5 million contract for a large scale solar project in Negeri Sembilan.

The research house forecasts Cypark’s earnings per share to increase to 31.3 sen in the financial year ended Oct 31, 2018 (FY18) and 35.3 sen in FY19. While the core profit forecast is pegged at RM80.8 million in FY18 and RM91.1 million in FY19.

In a note review today, Public Invest Research said Cypark’s earnings are expected to improve in FY18, from the sale of electricity through its 20MW biomass and 5MW biogas capacities.

“Going forward, we also expect further contributions from the recent securing of another 30MWac large-scale solar (LSS) project in Empangan Terip, Negeri Sembilan, which will be undertaken as part of a consortium with Revenue Vantage Sdn Bhd,” Nur Farah Syifaa’ Mohamad Fu’ad said.

She also anticipated Cypark potentially receiving up to RM10 million from the sale of electricity based on a feed-in-tariff of 46 sen, assuming a 50% share in the consortium.

“This has yet to be accounted for, pending further clarity on the terms of the project,” Nur Farah said.

In an interview with theedgemarkets.com, its group chief executive officer (CEO) Datuk Daud Ahmad noted its earnings visibility for its RE operation is getting better starting next financial year ending Oct 31, 2019 (FY19).

He expects FY19 would be a good year as the company will be seeing a full-year contribution from its contracts secured last year.

Daus said Cypark is confident of achieving double-digit profit growth in FY18, after it posted a 11.4% increase in net profit to RM57.6 million in FY17 from RM51.7 million the year before. Its revenue increased 6.6% to RM301.68 million in FY17 versus RM282.93 million.

“For 2019, we are expecting a big chunk [of] earnings. And we are also expecting it to continue going up while tendering for other projects,” said Daud, noting Cypark will continue to see a recurring income from its operation and maintenance (O&M), after completion of the plant development.

On Friday (Jan 26), Cypark has secured a contract worth RM260.51 million for works related to a large-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) plant in Negeri Sembilan.

It has accepted a conditional letter of award from Cove Suria Sdn Bhd which will see Cypark working on the 30MW plant situated in Empangan Kelinchi.

The first contract is for the engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning of the plant and will take effect for 24 months, while the second contract is for the O&M of the plant, which will be effective 21 years from the commercial operation date confirmed by Tenaga Nasional Bhd.

On that matter, the research house views this new construction contract positively as Cypark will be able to sustain earnings growth in its environment engineering (EE) segment, which previously saw the bulk of contributions coming from the waste-to-energy (WTE) construction project in Ladang Tanah Merah (LTM) which expected to complete end-2017.

Currently, business in its EE segment involves landfill closure and restoration, waste management and operation, development of solar plants and other waste-related projects.

Cypark share price went up one sen to close the morning session at RM2.53, after it hit a day’s high of RM2.58 with only 259,300 shares traded.

Better earnings visibility, prospects for Cypark

Wong Ee Lin / The Edge Financial Daily
January 29, 2018 08:49 am +08

This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on January 29, 2018.


KUALA LUMPUR: Cypark Resources Bhd, which just bagged a RM260.51 million contract for works related to a large-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) plant last week, the certain that its earnings visibility of its renewable energy (RE) operation is getting better starting next financial year ending Oct 31, 2019 (FY19).

Its group chief executive officer (CEO) Datuk Daud Ahmad is expecting its FY19 to be a good year as the company will be seeing a full-year contribution from its contracts secured last year.

In addition, the newly secured RM260.51 million contract from Cove Suria Sdn Bhd for a large scale solar PV Plant of 30mwac in Negeri Sembilan, is also expected to add fuel to sustain Cypark’s earnings growth soon as in FY20.

The contract is for the engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning of the plant of about 180 acres (72.8ha) and will take effect for 24 months. The contract is also for the operation and maintenance (O&M) of the plant, which will be effective 21 years from the commercial operation date confirmed by Tenaga Nasional Bhd.

According to Daud, Cypark is confident of achieving double-digit profit growth in FY18 after it posted a 11.4% increase in net profit to RM57.6 million in FY17 from RM51.7 million the year before. Its revenue increased 6.6% to RM301.68 million in FY17 versus RM282.93 million.

“For 2019, we are expecting a big chunk [of] earnings. And we are also expecting it to continue going up while tendering for other projects,” said Daud, noting that Cypark will continue to see a recurring income from its O&M after the completion of the plant development.

Daud explained that the Ladang Tanah Merah plant is expected to have full-year contribution in FY19 of about RM80 million of revenue annually for the next 21 years, and roughly another RM25 million of revenue annually for 21 years for the large-scale PV plant of 30mwdc in Negeri Sembilan.

Additionally, Cypark has also a 15mwdc plant in Negeri Sembilan, which will contribute about RM10 million revenue annually for 21 years.

“These types of projects have a high Ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisaton) because of its RE, as the government provides incentive for green energy,” said Daud, adding that the operational cost is low for RE.

CIMB Research analyst Ngo Siew Teng had forecast Cypark’s revenue to be about RM495.7 million and RM531.8 million in FY18 and FY19 respectively. She anticipates the company’s net profit to be about RM82.32 million, or 32 sen per share, and RM87.29 million or 34 sen per share for FY18 and FY19 respectively.

“We expect Cypark’s earnings to jump significantly in FY18, as Phase 1 of its waste-to-energy (WTE) project should commence operations in 1QCY18 (first quarter of calendar year 2018),” said Ngo in a research note dated Jan 2, adding that the completion of the WTE plant would be a key milestone for Cypark as the plant is the single-largest investment that it has ever undertaken.

Ngo added that Cypark also aims to raise RE revenue to RM300 million by FY20, from RM50 million in FY17.

Meanwhile, PublicInvest Research analyst Nur Farah Syifaa has a lower revenue projection of RM371.2 million and RM391.6 million in FY18 and FY19 respectively. Her net profit forecast is RM79.4 million, or 31.4 sen per share, for FY18 and RM83.2 million, or 32.9 sen per share, for FY19.

Nur Farah, however, pointed out that the earnings projection had not accounted for the recent acceptance of the 30mwac of large-scale solar project through a consortium with Revenue Vantage Sdn Bhd, pending further clarity on the terms of the project.

Listed on the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia in 2010, from a pure construction player, Cypark has today transformed itself into an integrated environmental engineering and technology provider, which Daud deemed it as “resilient to any other economic cycle”.

Daud highlighted that the company had undergone a business transformation shortly after its listing. Cypark had diversified into environmental engineering and solutions, renewable energy — WTE and solar, as well as green technology.

He noted that Cypark’s focus on research and development to create more innovative products over the years has borne fruit. Hence, the company had been consistently securing contracts over a couple of years.

“We have to stay competitive and be innovative with our products as even big companies such as Petronas, MRCB, and Malakoff want to enter this industry,” said Daud, adding that Cypark will be replicating the floating solar plant model, and it aims to bring down the cost of making it by 10%

Due to the scarce availability of land, Daud opined that Cypark wants to offer something that is very sustainable. “As a tropical country, we are blessed with a lot of reservoirs and they have no economic use,” said Daud. Hence, Cypark had offered to lease the space from the reservoirs, from the local authorities, and dams to place its floating solar plant.

When asked about the effect of consecutive rainy days in Malaysia, Daud explained that Cypark calculates its solar generation by annual sun hours not daily. With the long historical weather data, Daud noted that the daily rainy versus sunny days variable does not affect its annual projections.

With a target to achieve a capacity of 200mwdc, Daud said Cypark has a capacity of 30mwdc as at end 2017, and will be achieving a capacity of 70mwdc and 115mwdc as of end 2018 and end 2019 respectively.

Currently, Cypark has a tender book of RM1.5 billion, while its construction and O&M order book stands at RM650 million.

Cypark wins RM260.5m solar plant job in Negeri Sembilan

Adela Megan Willy / theedgemarkets.com
January 26, 2018 15:21 pm +08

KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 26): Cypark Resources Bhd has bagged a contract worth RM260.51 million for works related to a large-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) plant in Negeri Sembilan.

In a Bursa Malaysia filing, Cypark said it has accepted a conditional letter of award from Cove Suria Sdn Bhd which will see Cypark working on the 30MW plant situated in Empangan Kelinchi.

The first contract is for the engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning of the plant, and will take effect for 24 months, while the second contract is for the operation and maintenance of the plant, which will be effective 21 years from the commercial operation date confirmed by Tenaga Nasional Bhd.

Cypark shares were trading at RM2.52 in afternoon trading today, valuing the group at RM658.25 million.

New cryptocurrency exchange to be launched next month

CRYPTOCURRENCY
Monday, 29 Jan 2018
by izwan idris

Two-year run: Fakhrul says Pinkexc has been in the digital currency exchange business since 2016.

KUALA LUMPUR: A homegrown cryptocurrency exchanger is launching a revamped version of its trading venue, targeting strong market appetite for the alternative asset class, amid increased regulatory scrutiny on the sector.

Ipoh-based Pinkexc Sdn Bhd founder and chief executive officer Fakhrul-Razi Abu Bakar said the new platfom is scheduled to go live in February, six months after he took it offline to facilitate a major upgrade of its system.

“We have expanded our system capabilities and we are confident that the platform will be at par with the best out there,” he told StarBiz.

Pinkexc is seeking to fill the gap in the market after popular exchanger Luno said on Jan 12 that it was unable to processs deposits and withdrawals in Malaysia following a move by the Inland Revenue Board (IRB) to freeze its bank accounts.

The IRB was reported to have said that while the cryptocurrency business was an unregulated industry in Malaysia, it was subject to Malaysian income tax.

A conservative estimate put the average monthly trading turnover of bitcoin and other digital currencies in Malaysia at around RM75mil.

At least one exchanger, according to a StarBizWeek report, had handled a trading volume of some RM500mil from Malaysian trades last year alone.

There are four crypto exchangers operating in Malaysia, including London-based Luno and Pinkexc. To compare, there are more than 10 exchangers operating in neighbouring Singapore.

Fakhrul said Pinkexc is the only Malaysian-owned exchanger in the country and has been in the digital currency exchange business since 2016.

The new Pinkexc trading venue, he said, will feature six cryptocurrency trading pairs and three fiat money swaps.

“We are catering to what we see as a strong growing demand for alternative digital currencies, not just bitcoin, but also for litecoin and ethereum,” he said.

Bitcoin was born in 2009, but the digital currency gained mainstream notoriety in 2017 after surging from less than a US$1,000 per bitcoin at the start of the year to almost US$20,000 in less than 12 months.

It had stabilised, somewhat, last week and was trading at just below US$11,000 apiece.

“Last year had been a phenomenal year for cryptocurrencies, but you have to appreciate that it is still a relatively new asset class compared with other traditional investment products,” Fakhrul said.

Apart from operating a trading venue, Pinkexc, Fakhrul said he is also providing commercial and point-of-sale extension options for merchants as the company seeks to broaden the use of bitcoin in the real world.

The company has also set up a bitcoin automated teller machine (ATM) at its office in Ipoh and another one for a client in Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam.

As it is, digital currencies such as bitcoin are not legal tender in Malaysia, but cryptocurrency exchangers are required to report their activities to Bank Negara.

The central bank, in December, said digital currency exchangers are categorised as reporting institutions under the Anti-Money Laundering, Anti-Terrorism Financing and Proceeds of Unlawful Activities Act 2001.

This reporting obligations, the central bank said, is the first step in making activities in the cryptocurrency business more transparent.

It does, however, mean that entities engaged in this activity are required to be licensed, authorised or endorsed by the central bank.

Other reporting entities under this policy include accounting firms and real estate agencies, all of which are not under the purview of Bank Negara.

For exchangers like Pinkexc, which has been in business since 2016, such regulatory supervision is a positive development for the industry.

“For us, Malaysia has a unique opportunity to become a global hub for cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology,” Fakhrul said.

Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/01/29/new-cryptocurrency-exchange-to-be-launched-next-month/#qz4grLtLeVrB8r6H.99

More upside for poultry company CCK


ANALYST REPORTS
Monday, 29 Jan 20187:37 AM MYT

KUALA LUMPUR: CIMB Equities Research is retaining its Add call for poultry company CCK Consolidated with a target price of RM1.65, which is 45.8% above the last traded price of RM1.13.

It said on Monday CCK is its top pick in the small cap space and its TP of RM1.65 is based on an unchanged 15 times CY19F P/E (30% discount to CIMB Malaysia’s consumer sector target P/E).

“We believe that the stock’s share price has more room to grow, given its: i) strong growth prospects backed by a three-year EPS compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.9%, ii) captive market in East Malaysia, with 56 strategically-located outlets, and iii) strong demand for poultry products. Downside risk: poultry-related diseases,” it said.

CIMB Research said CCK will release its full-year FY17F results this week.

It expects CCK to record a higher on-year 4Q17F net profit in the range of RM5.5mil to RM7.5mil (vs 4QFY16’s RM5mil), bringing FY17F net profit to RM26mil to RM29m, slightly above its estimates.

This is thanks to higher contributions from both retail and poultry divisions as well as better cost efficiencies.

“Still, 4QFY17F net profit should be weaker on on-quarter basis vs 3Q17’s RM9.8mil, as 4Q is seasonally-weaker due to the school holidays leading to lower poultry demand,” it said.

The expansion of its Kuching abattoir has recently been completed, boosting its production by 33.3% to 38,000-40,000 birds daily. The larger floor space will provide room for a wider cold-storage area and more space to produce higher-margin products i.e. deboning and parts separation.

The installation of a marinating facility in its Sabah abattoir has also been completed, allowing CCK to produce marinated goods to add to its product range while catering to more corporate customers that require these services.

Recently, global fast-food chains including Mcdonald’s and KFC have highlighted plans to speed up expansion in Malaysia.

“As the East Malaysia market is fairly underpenetrated by fast-food chains vs. Peninsula Malaysia, we opine that they will expand these outlets in East Malaysia.

“CCK is a key beneficiary from stronger demand for chicken as East Malaysia is its captive market. It recently recorded a sizeable growth in orders to supply chicken to fast food outlets, and this should further increase with time,” said CIMB Research.

Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/01/29/more-upside-for-poultry-company-cck/#fozuSQLsQT643WDR.99

[Bonescythe] The Pearl of the Harbour

Author: moneyKing | Publish Date: 28 Dec 2017, 9:28 AM

As the new year is coming, our investment portfolio should also reflect a new change and new direction which move according to the trend of 2018. For this, I had to tell you that Harbour Link Group Berhad (Harbour - 2062) can be one of the shining star to be looked upon coming in to the year 2018.

I had shown you that Harbour technical chart had actually hit rock bottom, and started to rebound from it's bottom consolidation with a solid break out towards RM 0.75. So what is the underlying recipe for Harbour to start moving upwards despite a mixed opinion on the global shipping industry which is biased towards a negative outlook?

If you are not well verse on the shipping industry, then I could probably brief you a little with my easy to understand knowledge for you to absorb. Shipping industry can be categorized into many different category, such as dry bulk (which carries commodity) and container shipping. For the case of Harbour, we are referring to container shipping.

In container shipping, there is a need to understanding different size of ship. For an easy understanding, here is an attachment from Wikipedia for you to know the difference in container shipping. As for the case of Harbou, it is definitely talking about Feeder category which carries around 1000 TEU. ( Container ship capacity is measured in twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU). Typical loads are a mix of 20-foot and 40-foot (2-TEU) ISO-standard containers, with the latter predominant.)






Now, why I think Harbour can be a next superstar for 2018 like GCB did in 2017.

Well, it is very simple.

First, the container shipping rates for smaller ship (Below 3000 TEU) had recovered. According to the global container shipping rates for a 1700 TEU vessel, it had recovered from a lowly 6150 to the current 8300, which is a 35% increase.




I had to tell you that a 35% increase in shipping rates is very strong and will be greatly impact the revenue and profit for the shipping company which fall in this category. For this case, Harbour will not be left out because their ship is in this category.

I do not know if you believe or not Harbour share price can be heading to RM 1.00, but I had to tell you that the 1Q of 2018 will be seeing China and Hong Kong citizen throwing big celebration for Chinese New Year, which will see the 2 country having official public holidays for 1 week. For this reason, there is all the reason for me to believe that the country will have to do all the restocking and imports before the celebration, which will be a major push demand towards the container prices.

Incidentally, Harbour will also be servicing both China and Hong Kong routes, which will make things look even better for Harbour now. If that squeeze happen, the container freight rates could possibly move towards 10000. Who knows, right ?







I had pointed out an opportunity for you now. Whether you want to act on it or not, that again, is your own decision to make. Of course be remembered that all investment decision, is by your own accord. This is just a piece of referencing material for your knowledge on the happening of the industry.

Whatever it is, if you do read my article and try to understand it, I would hope that you would now learn something, or if better, you might think that you are feeling like a shipping expert already. Next time when you are talking to your colleague, friends or relative about shipping industry, then you can spill out some shipping terms like TEU, Panamax, Feeder and etc which you will leave them in a bizarre.

Sunday, January 28, 2018

马币回弹‧建裕珍厂财测调高

2018-01-26 10:49

(吉隆坡25日讯)建裕珍厂(KIANJOO,3522,主板工业产品组)前期受马币走疲和原料上涨所累,如今马币回弹,大马投行把兑美元从4.15调至3.95,调高建裕2018与2019财政年财测7%与16%。

马币升1%盈利强化3%该行说,建裕20%营收与35%总成本以美元计,基于原料皆以美元进口,是马币走强净受惠者。根据该行敏感分析,马币每走强1%,将使建裕盈利强化3%。

基于建裕去年受原料价与美元走强所累,业务大受冲击。今年尽管原料价仍高,马币走强可免盈利受侵蚀。

周四受布兰特原油一度涨0.65%至每桶70.99美元,驱动马币走强至3.8950高位。

建裕的锡片占锡制罐头容器的65%至70%,目前进口大约30%的钖片,其余来自本地供应。

大马投行表示,锡卷板占锡制罐头容器70%至80%的直接成本,基于这类原料国内没有生产,只好全面进口。

至于纸筒则用于生产纸盒原料,80%进口,余者国内供应。

大马投行认为,进军缅甸需长达3至5年孕育期,大部份产能未使用,和高咨询费使未来数年盈利阴霾笼罩。

大马投行相信建裕长远前景亮丽,预期缅甸投资2020财政年起有贡献,年轻人口与制造成本低是利好。

该行认为目前股价全面反映,也把近期挑战计算在内,“持有”评级不变。目标价从3令吉调高至3令吉25仙,本益比11倍,相比更大同侪14倍。

文章来源:星洲日报/财经·文:张启华·2018.01.26

建裕大股东每股61仙.全购马制铝厂

2016-08-18 18:41

建裕珍厂大股东兼董事经理杨仁和透过Towerpack私人有限公司以每股61仙收购马制铝厂59.16%股权。



(吉隆坡18日讯)建裕珍厂(KIANJOO,3522,主板工业产品组)大股东兼董事经理杨仁和透过Towerpack私人有限公司以约4772万2773令吉,或每股61仙收购马制铝厂(ALCOM,2674,主板工业产品组)59.16%股权,将以每股61仙价格全面献购所有未持有的公司股票。

每股61仙购59.16%
Towerpack成大股东

马制铝厂发文告表示,Towerpack以约4772万2773令吉,或每股61仙收购该公司59.16%股权或7823万4054股股票,崛起成为公司大股东,将以每股61仙价格全购所有未持有的公司股票。

比市价折价23%

相关出价比马制铝厂周四闭市价79.5仙,折价18.5仙或23.27%。

配合上述宣布,马制铝厂今日早盘暂停交易,午盘复盘应声下跌,全日跌5.5仙或6.92%至全日最低74仙。

该公司补充,相关全购计划将使得收购方获得进军铝片、铝箔产品和预涂散热鳍片制造与贸易活动的机会,并通过取得马制铝厂的绝对控制权来行使管理与营运控制,以强化未来表现。

同时,通过上述全购活动,也将为马制铝厂股东提供兑现投资价值的机会。

大马投资银行将是本次企业活动的首要顾问。

杨仁和在2012年6月18日出任建裕珍厂董事经理,他也是冠旺(CANONE,5105,主板工业产品组)的前董事经理和现任非独立非执行董事,冠旺为建裕珍厂大股东。

同时他也担任建裕子公司大马纸盒(BOXPAK,6297,主板工业产品组)的董事经理。

随着杨仁和这次全购马制铝厂,令市场关注他是否会把马制铝厂注入他所控制的上市公司。

在今年5月,杨仁和也建议以2880万美元(约1亿1593万4400令吉)脱售美国Kaiserkorp公司(KKLC)的60%股权给雪州柏朗桑(KPS,5843,主板贸服组),Kaiserkorp手握床褥King Koil品牌,该品牌销往逾全球80个国家,目前是美国第七大床褥品牌。

文章来源:星洲日报/财经‧2016.08.18

Saturday, January 27, 2018

OSAT 系列之第三篇:MPI之 “无人驾驶” 和 “Smart Car”的受益者 的顾客篇

January 25, 2018
Morgan Lim 反思者




还没看之前 OSAT 系列的可以参考:

OSAT 系列之第一篇:以Inari的前身来了解这个领域 篇
OSAT 系列之第一篇:Inari 篇 之Osram 和 Avago(Broadcom)的代产

OSAT 系列之第二篇:Unisem 篇之 “无人驾驶” 和 “Smart Car和Smart Home” 的受益者



现在开始进入正题:MPI (MALAYSIAN PACIFIC INDUSTRIES)

MPI的业务与 Unisem 和 Inari差不多一样,就是Wafer的manufacturing, testing和assembly (不了解这些业务的读者不妨读看OSAT系列的头两篇文章)。请看下图:MPI 的corporate structure是由 Carsem 和Dynacraft 组成的。


(PS: 为什么笔者特地把Carsem Semiconductor (Suzhou) highlight起来呢,那是因为,此公司正是本地上市公司Aemulus的顾客之一哦。)





现在我们来仔细看看Carsem到底有什么厉害过人之处:


如上图所说,Carsem是全世界Top 6最大的 Independent Semiconfuctor sub-contract assembly house之一,帮大公司们生产和组装IC。Carsem每个礼拜将生产超过100 million个IC 而其中65%的完成品将会被完全的测试过才送去给顾客们。Carsem被承认为拥有领先的IC包装和测试技术,属于全球提供着最广泛的IC包装和测试服务之一的Sub-Con。Carsem的顾客群非常广泛,包括了:工业,电讯,资讯,消费业和汽车行业,这让Carsem可以避免过于依赖任何一个行业的顾客群。Carsem在积极的研发和拥有Failure Analysis Lab的设施下,提供着完整的Final Test service。



话说,读到这一边,看起来很强勒,一直提起“全球”二字,听起来真的比Unisem强很多的感觉。(之所以会拿Unisem和MPI相比的原因是,他们有一些共同的顾客群。)笔者真的很好奇,MPI有比Unisem强那么多?再我们接着研究MPI之前,我们先把MPI和Unisem做个简单的比较看看。请看下图:


根据上图,两家公司的市值,PE,Revenue,PBT,PBT Margin,Net Profit和Net Profit Margin 几乎都差不多。Erm,所以呢,Er~~~MPI虽然一直有“全球”二字,但是看数字,好像没有比较厉害哟,哈哈哈。





好,现在我们继续研究MPI的另一个Subsidiary Company : Dynacraft


Dycraft是负责制造Lead frames的。

(PS: Lead frames称之为导线架, 又可称为"釘架",是在IC晶片封裝(Packaging)时所用的材料。Lead Frame不是半导体材料, 本质上是薄金属层。大多数IC Packaging就是通过将Chips放置在Lead Frames上,然后将Chips的电路连接至Lead Frame框架的金属电路上,然后用塑料覆盖Chips就完成了。至今,这种简单且低成本的IC Packaging技术仍然是许多应用的最佳解决方案。)





了解了公司的业务和构造后,我们看看MPI的顾客群:

(PS:笔者写的这些顾客是Carsem 2011至2017年的顾客群,而Dynacraft的则是比较久一些的资料,可以追溯到2000年,如果读者们有更新的资讯,欢迎留言交流,感恩。)



顾客1:ELMOS Semiconductor AG (Automotive 顾客)


Elmos 是一家Semiconductor-based system solutions 的研发商和生产商。这家公司的产品几乎全部都是应用在Automotive汽车领域。Elmos有生产 Application Specific IC (ASIC)也就是专门应用在特定功能的IC。如果没错的话,Elmos所研发的IC全部被用在汽车里面的Interface, Power Supply, Motor Control, Sensor (可惜没有radar),safety和engine management。这些全部Products都是属于Microelectromechanical systems(MEMS)的。
(PS:话说,本地上市OSAT公司全部都可以达到micrometer的标准,没问题的。)



Elmos 的核心能力是研发、生产和销售混合信号半导体。混合信号半导体相当于一个电子系统的头脑。Elmos的IC能detect analogue signal (生活中的数据如声音,光线),并转化成Digital(数字数据)来process。从汽车的角度来说,只要有需要分析评估和控制的地方,就能够用到混合信号芯片。


也就是说呢,以后的汽车在逐渐变成Smart Car时,就必须用到很多这些Elmos制造的IC了。股价就是证据了,读者们自己看看上图Elmos近期股价的表现。在现在这个Smart Car(Driverless and Electronic vehicle) 的趋势下,股价能不涨吗?



看看下图就能马上对Elmos的product和技术更了解了:







话说,Elmos也是Unisem的顾客之一哦。





顾客2:Qorvo (RF 顾客)


Qorvo 是MPI 的Radio Frequency(RF) 顾客。Qorvo是在2015年时才上市于Nasnaq,但是这家公司已经有长达30年的历史。公司是负责创新和研发着顶尖的RF技术,Qorvo的网页里是这么说的,"你的车,你的Smart Phone,你的Smart Wrist(例如: Mi Band),你的心脏甚至于外太空,你周围的一切,Qorvo的产品都在为大家服务,链接着整个世界" 。Qorvo现在最专注的就是5G 的技术和 Internet Of Thing,也就是RF 领域今年内会最有需求的技术了。看看下图:


上面这图大概解释了5G的用途。读者们可以看以下的Link了解更多。

http://www.qorvo.com/design-hub/videos/5g-why-it-is-massively-awesome




而上图就大概解释了IOT的用途。读者们可以看以下的Link了解更多IOT是什么。

http://www.qorvo.com/design-hub/videos/the-3-ahas-that-make-iot-work



笔者大概了解这家公司后,个人的看法就是,这家公司的前途会是很好的,因为未来的趋势肯定就是Smart everything了!我们现在有Smart phone,而未来10年肯定就是 Smart car和Smart house的大趋势,而做此行的Qorvo肯定会受惠了。

但值得我们留意的就是,近期内,5G还没有被应用在生活中。所以Qorvo这家公司短期内并不会为MPI带来什么“利好”消息,这将解释MPI的RF Segment在短期内成长应该会逐渐放缓哦。







顾客3:SiTime (Acquired by MegaChips)



SiTime是一家制造Timing Devices的公司。Timing Devices呢也就是Oscillator,用来转换Direct Current(DC)成Alternative Current(AC),然后AC电流就会被用在我们正常生活中用到的电子产品IC内。有兴趣简单了解什么是Oscillator的可以看以下这个link。
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJAZHPqEUKU


SiTime生产的Oscillator是Microelectromechanical systems(MEMS) 的。SiTime占有了90%的MEMS Timing Devices的市场。而SiTime也研发了全世界最小的oscillator,SiTime的宗旨就是要生产最高表现和可靠的Timing Devices。




看上图,SiTime在Malaysia有设立工厂,并且公司的devices是在Malaysia assembly的。近水楼台先得月,这解释了SiTime 为什么会把assembly和 testing 交给Carsem负责。



话说,SiTime在 2014 年被MegaChips以 200 Million美金收购了,所以我们也只能以MegaChips的股价来追踪成长了。看下图:




恩,笔者只能说,这公司最近真的大暴走,或许是公司的Timing Devices被应用在汽车业上吗?希望多带给MPI生意咯,呵呵。



顾客4:International Rectifier (Infineon)


Infineon 是全球半导体解决方案的领导者,宗旨是使生活更轻松,更安全,更环保。Infineon旗下的Microelectronics是未来发展的关键。在2017财年(截至9月30日),公司报告销售额约为71亿欧元,全球约有37,500名员工。


Infineon涉及在主要四个领域里: Automotive, Industrial Power Control, Power Mangement & Multimarket 和 Chip Card & Security。





笔者大概的看了一下公司的Products,公司有生产很多不同功能的IC和semiconductor chips。读者们可以看一下以下的link。这个video解释用在Electrostatic discharge(ESD)的chips,大家可以看看那个chip 的size,真的好小哦。

https://www.infineon.com/cms/en/product/esd-and-surge-protection/multi-purpose-esd-devices/



Infineon 有在Frankfurt Stock Exchange上市(股票代码:IFX),也在美国的over-the-counter market OTCQX International Premier上市(代码:IFNNY)。下图就是Infineon的股价:



看这个股价表现,这顾客真的混得非常非常非常好,近几年根本就是一直飞而已。



基于好奇心,笔者找了下,发现了以下,
Infineon是NXP的 Partner!!!也就是说Infineon的产品被NXP应用!


https://www.nxp.com/webapp/connect/displayPartnerProfile.sp?partnerId=5441



若读者们了解KESM都应该听过NXP这家公司。KESM去年那么牛的表现就是因为沾到NXP的光。



NXP是全球半导体制造商。 它基于其安全性,标识,汽车,
网络,射频,模拟信号和电源管理专业知识提供混合信号和标准产品。其中最令投资者感兴趣的产品就是NXP的雷达收发器芯片组,这是用于自动驾驶汽车的高级驾驶辅助系统(ADAS)的关键技术。



是的,NXP接下来几年肯定会因为大趋势而水涨船高,Infineon也会沾光,自然MPI也能受惠了。看到这边,笔者以后真的会把MPI和KESM连在一起了,哈哈哈哈哈哈。





顾客5: Microsemi
Microsemi Corporation为航空,国防,通信,数据中心和工业市场提供全面的半导体和系统解决方案组合。产品包括高性能和抗辐射的模拟混合信号集成电路,FPGA,SoC和ASIC。大致上呢,Microsemi的产品会被应用在电源管理产品,语音处理设备,RF解决方案,企业存储和通信解决方案等等。摘要就是,Microsemi的产品被用在多个领域里就是了。



在这个大趋势下,笔者所注重的就是Driverless System。而Microsemi也有牵涉于此行业,请看下图:




话说这家公司Microsemi在全球拥有约4,800名员工。



好,我们接着看下公司的股价:


公司的成长非常稳定,希望接下来Driverless System被大量应用时会把公司的成长推高,推高公司的products demand。






顾客6: Exar (Acquired by MaxLinear (MXL) )

话说,Exar在去年2017年被MaxLinear以700 Million美金收购了。MaxLinear这家公司提供高技术的Broadband和networking semiconductor产品。Maxlinear拥有强大的RF analog 技术,高性能的optical networking 和Direct Broadcast Satellite ODU single-wire 科技。值得一提的是,这家公司的员工70%以上拥有Master或者PHD的学历。



这些技术被大量的应用在这几个方面:







从这边我们能够知道Exar肯定就是MPI的RF顾客了。

以下是MaxLinear的股价表现:


笔者认为这家公司的主要的发展趋势是高清的Video和超快的网速。所以笔者做了些Research,这家公司有在研发5G和Millimeter wave的科技。



所以笔者对这家公司的评语和Qorvo一样。近期内,5G还没有被应用在生活中。所以Exar这家公司短期内并不会为MPI带来什么“利好”消息,这将解释MPI的RF Segment在短期内成长应该会逐渐放缓哦。




顾客7: RichTek (Acquired by MediaTek)

RichTek是全球领先的Analog IC公司之一。公司始终如一地提供创新的电源管理解决方案,以改善消费电子,计算机和通信设备的性能。在2015年,MediaTek以美金879.3 million收购了RichTek。



笔者大约看了一下,公司有两个很特别的业务,如下:


Richtek Vcore解决方案是用于为笔记本电脑,服务器,工业PC等计算需要为CPU和GPU提供多少的电源。Richtek推出了完整的Single/multi-phase Vcore电源管理解决方案给INTEL 和AMD这两家大公司。






RichTek提供范围广泛的无线电源解决方案,可支持主流的无线电源标准,专门给Wireless Power Charging(WPC)产品。RichTek凭借创新的多模式接收器产品来支持便携式,可穿戴设备和其他应用,是无线供电领域的领导者之一。




笔者对这家公司的看法是,这家公司的成长是有的,毕竟Intel和AMD的成长是会一直持续下去的,可是很难达到非常高的成长。这家公司或许就要靠Wireless charging的技术带来成长了。







顾客8: Allegro MicroSystems



Allegro MicroSystems是开发,制造和销售高性能半导体的领导者。 Allegro的创新解决方案为汽车市场中的高增长应用提供服务,同时还专注于办公自动化,工业和消费/通信解决方案。


Allegro的产品和应用领域如下:






Allegro MicroSystems 是Sanken Electric Co. Ltd 的 subsidiary company。




股价说明了一切,这个顾客过得很好啊 XD




http://www.sanken-ele.co.jp/en/csr/products.htm



对这个顾客就是,汽车的IC,automotive,energy saving,green energy,全部好赚的领域都有接触到。话说,Allegro也是Unisem的顾客之一哦。







Dynacraft Customer

顾客1:Good Ark Electronic Su Zhou


Suzhou Good-Ark 是中国电子行业半导体十大知名企业。Suzhou Good-Ark于1990年11月成立,是中国电子行业半导体十大知名企业、江苏省高新技术企业、中国半导体分立器件协会副理事长企业。

Suzhou Good-Ark 的业务包括了完整的semiconductor manufacturing产业链,有最完善、最齐全的设计、制造、封装、销售的厂商。

Suzhou Good-Ark 的产品广泛应用在航空航天、汽车、绿色照明、IT、家用电器以及大型设备的电源装置等许多领域。设计、研发太阳能电池用银浆以及各种电子浆料,研发并规模化生产物联网领域各种新型传感器




顾客2:Analog Devices


Analogue Devices的产品和业务主要是convert Analogue Signal to digital,也就是让客户能够把现实生活中发生的事情还是状况转化成数据。Analogue Devices的产品使用创新的技术进行传感,测量和连接来解决instrumentation,自动化,通讯,医疗保健,汽车以及众多其他行业的设计挑战。
Analogue Devices的产品的application有 Industry 4.0, 5G,Solar,IOT,医疗手术,NASA用的火箭, Drone,Audi的感应和battery系统。



股价反应了一切,这个顾客过得非常好呢。





顾客3:Advanced Interconnect Technologies(AIT )

话说,在2007年,Unisem就把AIT收购了起来。所以换句话说,Unisem也是有用Dynacraft所生产的Leadframe,也是MPI的顾客之一。






顾客4:Microchip Technology


Microchip Technology是 microcontroller 和analog semiconductors的领先供应商,为全球数以千计的各种客户应用产品提供低风险的产品开发,让顾客以更低的系统总成本和更快的上市时间。



Microchip Techonology的产品被大量的用在汽车上还有Barcode上,读者们可以参考以下的link:
1) https://www.microchip.com/design-centers/automotive-solutions/automotive-products/connectivity/most/unicens

2) https://www.microchip.com/promo/digital-serial-number-tracking



对于Microchip这家公司,笔者的看法就是,产品很复杂,不是很看得懂,可是股价应该正在反应着表现,我们大家看股价就好,呵呵。从股价来看,谁都知道这个顾客过得非常好呢。







看完Carsem和Dynacraft的顾客后

笔者发现的是Carsem和Dynacraft的顾客群是不一样的。Carsem帮忙Fabless Company包装IC和测试,而Dynacraft的顾客群主要是OSAT公司比如Carsem和Unisem。其实,Dynacraft也有提供Leadframe给Carsem,MPI最主要会在1996年买下Dynacraft的原因应该就是要剩下material cost。这样一来,Dynacraft生产Leadframe给Carsem用,MPI就如虎添翼了。





笔者曾经说过,

“在semiconductor领域,读者们可以去尝试看回公司的顾客背景和公司顾客的前景未来。这样就可以知道公司未来的发展和发展空间了。=D ”



从以上全部的顾客群中,我们不难发现全部有牵涉Automotive的顾客都在这一两年内飞黄腾达,而且这很可能只是大趋势的开头而已。除此之外,牵涉RF领域的顾客股价的确放慢,这点和MPI的报道里所提出的,MPI的RF segment会放慢吻合。





由于笔者认为此篇真的够长了,笔者将会把剩余的资料写在第二篇。这边先透露一些笔者目前看到的东西:

1)MPI与Inari和Unisem不一样,曾有被控诉侵犯版权的问题。

2)近期内,科技股的股价因为马币上涨而大跌,可是MPI比Unisem和Inari对外汇的影响上更显优势。



笔者将会在下篇解答以下的疑问:

1)MPI在未来几年的表现会不会超越Inari和Unisem?

2)MPI有没有可能如5年前的Inari般,股价在大趋势的带动下狂飙呢?



敬请期待。





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