Author: kiasutrader | Publish date: Thu, 30 Nov 2017, 08:54 AM
1Q18 CNP of RM31.2m (+9%) is deemed within expectations as first quarter is a seasonally weak quarter. No changes in earnings assumptions. Thus, we keep our TP unchanged at RM4.80. However, we downgrade our recommendation from OP to MP call as we believe the known positives have already been priced in by the 55% appreciation in its share price since our upgrade to OP.
Seasonally weak first quarter. The group reported 1Q18 core net profit (CNP) of RM31.2m (+9%) which accounted for 14%/18% of our/consensus full-year estimates. However, the performance is deemed within expectations as first quarter is a seasonally weak quarter (typically made up c.15-20% of the full-year earnings contribution per the last 3 years) and in anticipation of a stronger 2Q18 from the sales-boosting year-end promotional events. A second interim DPS of 2.5 sen was declared for the quarter. Recall that, a first interim DPS of 2.5 sen had been declared on 25th August 2017 (payment date on 29th September 2017), bringing the YTD-FY18 DPS to 5.0sen, which is within our expectations as 60% of dividend pay-out is typically in 2H.
YoY, 1Q18 revenue increased marginally by 2%, driven by additional sales from 2 new outlets (1 Padini Concept Stores, and 1 Brands Outlet) as well as strong sales growth from its existing stores. Gross profit grew higher than revenue, by 6% as gross profit margin expanded by 1.6 percentage points to 43.1% (1Q17:41.5%) attributed to the new products diversification of 70% from China, 25% from Malaysia and 5% from other countries (e.g. Bangladesh, India, Cambodia and Korea). Coupled with a lower effective tax rate of 25.5% (1Q17: 27.8%), core net profit grew higher by 9%.
QoQ, 1Q18 revenue plunged by 32% attributed to the aggressive promotion for Hari Raya Aidilfitri festive season in the previous quarter. However, gross profit declined slower than revenue by 14%, with substantial improvement in gross profit margin at 43.1% (4Q17:34.4%) attributed to the lower inventories written off at RM1.8m (4Q17: RM26.0m). Coupled with higher selling and distribution expenses allocation of 31.8% (4Q17: 23.5% of revenue), and netted off by a lower effective tax rate of 25.5% (4Q17:27.5%), core net profit declined at a higher rate of 50%.
Earnings momentum to be sustained at the current level. We believe Padini has adopted the right strategy in focusing on the valuefor-money segment in Brands Outlet while the business restructuring in Vincci and Seed has also bore fruits. Moving forward, we expect the earnings momentum to be sustained at the current level, pending the gestation period for its Cambodian operations. We believe Padini is on track to meet its FY18E targeted stores opening of 12 new stores for domestic operation and 3 new stores in Cambodia. (as of October 2017, 3 Brands Outlet stores and 3 Padini Concept stores have commenced operation).
Post results, we maintain our FY18E/FY19E earnings estimate.
Keep Target Price unchanged at RM4.80 based on unchanged 14x FY18E PER in line with +1.0 SD of its 5-year mean in view of its resilient business model. While we are long-term positive on Padini’s earnings growth prospect, the share price had appreciated 55% since we upgraded our call to OUTPERFORM and we believe the known positives have been priced in. Thus, we are downgrading our recommendation from OUTPERFORM to MARKET PERFORM. Key risks include (i) lower-than-expected sales and stores opening, and (ii) higher-than- expected operating expenses.
Source: Kenanga Research - 30 Nov 2017
Thursday, November 30, 2017
Goldman warns that stocks are at their highest valuations since 1900
Bloomberg/Bloomberg
November 30, 2017 06:41 am +08
(Nov 30): A prolonged bull market across stocks, bonds and credit has left a measure of average valuation at the highest since 1900, a condition that at some point is going to translate into pain for investors, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
“It has seldom been the case that equities, bonds and credit have been similarly expensive at the same time, only in the Roaring ’20s and the Golden ’50s,” Goldman Sachs International strategists including Christian Mueller-Glissman wrote in a note this week. “All good things must come to an end” and “there will be a bear market, eventually” they said.
As central banks cut back their quantitative easing, pushing up the premiums investors demand to hold longer-dated bonds, returns are “likely to be lower across assets” over the medium term, the analysts said. A second, less likely, scenario would involve “fast pain.” Stock and bond valuations would both get hit, with the mix depending on whether the trigger involved a negative growth shock, or a growth shock alongside an inflation pick-up.
“Elevated valuations increase the risk of draw-downs for the simple reason that there is less buffer to absorb shocks,” the strategists wrote. “The average valuation percentile across equity, bonds and credit in the U.S. is 90 percent, an all-time high.”
A portfolio of 60 percent S&P 500 Index stocks and 40 percent 10-year U.S. Treasuries generated a 7.1 percent inflation-adjusted return since 1985, Goldman calculated -- compared with 4.8 percent over the last century. The tech-bubble implosion and global financial crisis were the two taints to the record.
Low inflation has prevailed in the current period, just as it did alongside economic growth in the 1920s and 1950s, according to the Goldman report. “The worst outcome for 60/40 portfolios is high and rising inflation, which is when both bonds and equities suffer, even outside recessions.” An increase in policy rates triggered by price pressures “remains a key risk for multi-asset portfolios. Duration risk in bond markets is much higher this cycle,” they wrote.
In the Goldman strategists’ main scenario of lower but positive returns, investors should “stay invested and could even be lured to lever up.” They suggested putting more in equities, with their greater risk-adjusted returns, and scaling back duration in fixed income.
Other findings in the report include:
November 30, 2017 06:41 am +08
(Nov 30): A prolonged bull market across stocks, bonds and credit has left a measure of average valuation at the highest since 1900, a condition that at some point is going to translate into pain for investors, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
“It has seldom been the case that equities, bonds and credit have been similarly expensive at the same time, only in the Roaring ’20s and the Golden ’50s,” Goldman Sachs International strategists including Christian Mueller-Glissman wrote in a note this week. “All good things must come to an end” and “there will be a bear market, eventually” they said.
As central banks cut back their quantitative easing, pushing up the premiums investors demand to hold longer-dated bonds, returns are “likely to be lower across assets” over the medium term, the analysts said. A second, less likely, scenario would involve “fast pain.” Stock and bond valuations would both get hit, with the mix depending on whether the trigger involved a negative growth shock, or a growth shock alongside an inflation pick-up.
“Elevated valuations increase the risk of draw-downs for the simple reason that there is less buffer to absorb shocks,” the strategists wrote. “The average valuation percentile across equity, bonds and credit in the U.S. is 90 percent, an all-time high.”
A portfolio of 60 percent S&P 500 Index stocks and 40 percent 10-year U.S. Treasuries generated a 7.1 percent inflation-adjusted return since 1985, Goldman calculated -- compared with 4.8 percent over the last century. The tech-bubble implosion and global financial crisis were the two taints to the record.
Low inflation has prevailed in the current period, just as it did alongside economic growth in the 1920s and 1950s, according to the Goldman report. “The worst outcome for 60/40 portfolios is high and rising inflation, which is when both bonds and equities suffer, even outside recessions.” An increase in policy rates triggered by price pressures “remains a key risk for multi-asset portfolios. Duration risk in bond markets is much higher this cycle,” they wrote.
In the Goldman strategists’ main scenario of lower but positive returns, investors should “stay invested and could even be lured to lever up.” They suggested putting more in equities, with their greater risk-adjusted returns, and scaling back duration in fixed income.
Other findings in the report include:
- The exceptionally low volatility found in the stock market -- with the VIX index near the record low it reached in September -- could continue. History has featured periods when low volatility lasted more than three years. The current one began in mid-2016.
- Valuations have a “mixed track record” for predicting returns, explaining less than half the variation since 1900.
- Major draw-downs in 60/40 portfolios over the past century amounted to 26 percent in real terms on average, lasting 19 months. It took two years to get back to previous peaks, on average.
- Bonds are probably less good hedges for equities nowadays -- a point also made by Pacific Investment Management Co.
- Central banks “might not be able or willing to buffer growth or inflation shocks,” especially if they judge that imbalances and excesses are building. They also face fewer options to ease monetary policy given low rates and big balance sheets. - Bloomberg
EG工業27th AGM點滴報告與感想
Author: Fly_universe | Publish date: Thu, 30 Nov 2017, 12:38 AM
11月27號是公司的AGM，公司提供電子儀器來計票，所有的Resolution都很快速的被通過，然後AGM就結束了。接著CFO和Production Director就帶領Shareholders來一個Plant Tour。參觀後回到Office近乎所有Shareholders就圍著CEO問各種問題。問答全程都是以華語進行。CEO和CFO都非常友善和仔細的把所有問題一一解答。
Plant Tour是參觀第二間工廠，上下兩層都是用來Manufacture Dyson的PCBA。在Plant Tour時CFO有提到EG的其中一個強項是Parylene Coating。這是一種為PCBA塗上一種Coating以讓PCBA有更加好的特點，如更高的熱穩定性(Thermal Stability)，更好的UV穩定性(UV Stability)等等。關於Parylene Coating的詳情可以點擊以下連接:
https://scscoatings.com/corporate/blog/benefits-parylene-coating/
CFO說現在整個亞洲只有他們有提供Parylene Coating。這種附加的價值會讓PCBA的價格更高，而也只有如Dyson般的大公司才肯花這樣的錢，這也是為什麼Dyson產品會賣的那麼貴。
回到Office筆者問CEO關於Dyson的Box-Build的可能性。CEO說公司的Plastic Injection是做不到Dyson產品的Plastic，那些都是非常漂亮和Sophisticated的Plastic，需要較高的Plastic技術，如果EG真的要做又要花多40多Million去買機器，所以暫時不會去做。現在看來那些高規格的PLASTIC的確是VS和SKPRES的強項。筆者認為現在公司現在會繼續Cater他們的強項給Dyson，也就是PCBA。
當被問到SKPRES將在明年起好新工廠後獲得Dyson的Vertical Integration Status是否會對EG的業務帶來衝擊。CEO回答衝擊不會很大，他說SKPRES就算有了SMT Lines還是會把PCBA Sub給EG做(個人相信PCBA畢竟還是EG的強項)。CEO說和SKPRES的關係更像Friendly Partner，VS和SKPRES好，EG也會好。CEO也說馬來西亞EMS有面臨Dyson把生產搬過去菲律賓的風險，所以無論VS或SKPRES或EG，大家應該對外，而不是對內。
CEO也說公司定位Automotive Sector為未來發展大勢，且公司已經積極加大投入。新成立的Wire Harness部門也是為了在服務Automotive顧客時可以為銷售增值，因為Wire Harness會大量用在汽車上。關於Wire Harness的詳情可以點擊以下連接:
http://www.miracle.net.in/blog/benefits-applications-automotive-wire-harnesses/
另外CEO也透露目前已經開始為新顧客小量生產，要等到產量比較大的時候才會以MOU方式宣佈。這家公司據知是一家規模蠻大的公司，在中國有65K的員工，筆者在想這會不會是RCPS Prospectus裡面提到的新顧客(不敢十分肯定)，因為Prospectus有提到新顧客的訂單不是以Contract的方式取得。這個部分筆者聽不到全部訊息，如果資料不對請見諒。
筆者也問Alex如何如何評價EG現在的狀況，他的回答是公司是穩定的在成長軌跡中，未來3-4年都不會有問題，因為有大量的訂單支持，只不過現在的挑戰是Raw Material Shortage。訂單多可是沒有原料也是不能Fulfil Order。(從最新Q1 FY2018的的季報來看，公司已經成立International Procument Hub來解決Raw Material的問題)
有人問CEO為何第2間的工廠SMT Line增加的比較慢，Alex說他是保守的CEO，見識過97年的慘況，有人貿然增加很多生產線然後風暴一來，最後落得自殺的下場。CEO說沒有Order或很強的Enquiry公司是不會貿然去增加CAPEX，有Order就按部就班的增加。
有人問道公司FY2018的Target Sales，CEO回答是1.2 Billion Revenue，當筆者問CEO關於FY2018 Product Mix的Target，依然是70/30，可是70/30其實是FY2017的目標。CEO說Off Target的原因還是因為原料短缺。既然FY2018的目標是70/30，我們就靜觀公司是否能達到這個目標。
CFO說泰國SMTI的Listing還是有阻擾。這是因為SMTI和SMTT有重疊的部分，泰國監管方面一定要EG將大馬和泰國的業務區分的仔細，不可重疊，以照顧泰國的股東，Listing很大可能會Abort。筆者認為問題不大，要Expand泰國廠房也只能透過Borrowings或Internally Generated Fund。可喜的是從FY2017年報裡，泰國SMTI的Non-current Assets已經從FY2016的54.145 Million來到FY2017的82.159 Million，這證明管理層已經著手擴張泰國廠房。
CEO也透露剛在2017 Asia IoT Business Platform拿到的Award of Excellence in Enterprise Innovation - Malaysia被很多人忽略了，CEO說馬來西亞只有EG和SIME DARBY拿到這個獎項。這個Award他們申請了兩年都拿不到，結果R&D的一個年輕人寫了一個Proposal就拿到了。有了這個Award可以去申請Grant做更多關於IoT的東西，也讓公司更加受益於任何IoT的機會。
CEO說R&D Expense大約會在Revenue的1%-3%左右。筆者問道關於在年報新增的3間Penang Suntech Office，CEO回答的確是為了R&D擴張用途。公司的R&D工程師目前是20位，打算增加到30位。另外公司也會做不一樣的東西去擴大銷售，如R&D正在做著Voice Control System嘗試賣給顧客，據CEO說這個System還能夠識別福建音或潮州音。
筆者也問文年報裡新增的Vacant Land是否為了起第3工廠，CEO回答Yes，不過這將會是不一樣的東西，將會申請Grant來起Green Factory。隔壁的SHARP也有意要將工廠賣掉，不過價錢太貴，所以沒有考慮。關於第3工廠，筆者認為還遙遠，不會短期生效，畢竟第2工廠還有擴張空間。
終結:透過與CEO和CFO的對話，這個AGM讓筆者收穫良多資訊，透過剛發佈的Q1 FY2018季報，Receivables下降的同時， Cash Flow也變得非常漂亮，再來 International Procument Hub也讓公司在採購時候更具競爭力，這確認公司有在用心做事，處在正確的成長道路上，這讓筆者可以放心的繼續守候，與公司一起成長。
注:此文章只是彙報EG AGM的點滴和一些筆者的感想，筆者一概不負責任何人讀了此文章後的投資決定。
11月27號是公司的AGM，公司提供電子儀器來計票，所有的Resolution都很快速的被通過，然後AGM就結束了。接著CFO和Production Director就帶領Shareholders來一個Plant Tour。參觀後回到Office近乎所有Shareholders就圍著CEO問各種問題。問答全程都是以華語進行。CEO和CFO都非常友善和仔細的把所有問題一一解答。
Plant Tour是參觀第二間工廠，上下兩層都是用來Manufacture Dyson的PCBA。在Plant Tour時CFO有提到EG的其中一個強項是Parylene Coating。這是一種為PCBA塗上一種Coating以讓PCBA有更加好的特點，如更高的熱穩定性(Thermal Stability)，更好的UV穩定性(UV Stability)等等。關於Parylene Coating的詳情可以點擊以下連接:
https://scscoatings.com/corporate/blog/benefits-parylene-coating/
CFO說現在整個亞洲只有他們有提供Parylene Coating。這種附加的價值會讓PCBA的價格更高，而也只有如Dyson般的大公司才肯花這樣的錢，這也是為什麼Dyson產品會賣的那麼貴。
回到Office筆者問CEO關於Dyson的Box-Build的可能性。CEO說公司的Plastic Injection是做不到Dyson產品的Plastic，那些都是非常漂亮和Sophisticated的Plastic，需要較高的Plastic技術，如果EG真的要做又要花多40多Million去買機器，所以暫時不會去做。現在看來那些高規格的PLASTIC的確是VS和SKPRES的強項。筆者認為現在公司現在會繼續Cater他們的強項給Dyson，也就是PCBA。
當被問到SKPRES將在明年起好新工廠後獲得Dyson的Vertical Integration Status是否會對EG的業務帶來衝擊。CEO回答衝擊不會很大，他說SKPRES就算有了SMT Lines還是會把PCBA Sub給EG做(個人相信PCBA畢竟還是EG的強項)。CEO說和SKPRES的關係更像Friendly Partner，VS和SKPRES好，EG也會好。CEO也說馬來西亞EMS有面臨Dyson把生產搬過去菲律賓的風險，所以無論VS或SKPRES或EG，大家應該對外，而不是對內。
CEO也說公司定位Automotive Sector為未來發展大勢，且公司已經積極加大投入。新成立的Wire Harness部門也是為了在服務Automotive顧客時可以為銷售增值，因為Wire Harness會大量用在汽車上。關於Wire Harness的詳情可以點擊以下連接:
http://www.miracle.net.in/blog/benefits-applications-automotive-wire-harnesses/
另外CEO也透露目前已經開始為新顧客小量生產，要等到產量比較大的時候才會以MOU方式宣佈。這家公司據知是一家規模蠻大的公司，在中國有65K的員工，筆者在想這會不會是RCPS Prospectus裡面提到的新顧客(不敢十分肯定)，因為Prospectus有提到新顧客的訂單不是以Contract的方式取得。這個部分筆者聽不到全部訊息，如果資料不對請見諒。
筆者也問Alex如何如何評價EG現在的狀況，他的回答是公司是穩定的在成長軌跡中，未來3-4年都不會有問題，因為有大量的訂單支持，只不過現在的挑戰是Raw Material Shortage。訂單多可是沒有原料也是不能Fulfil Order。(從最新Q1 FY2018的的季報來看，公司已經成立International Procument Hub來解決Raw Material的問題)
有人問CEO為何第2間的工廠SMT Line增加的比較慢，Alex說他是保守的CEO，見識過97年的慘況，有人貿然增加很多生產線然後風暴一來，最後落得自殺的下場。CEO說沒有Order或很強的Enquiry公司是不會貿然去增加CAPEX，有Order就按部就班的增加。
有人問道公司FY2018的Target Sales，CEO回答是1.2 Billion Revenue，當筆者問CEO關於FY2018 Product Mix的Target，依然是70/30，可是70/30其實是FY2017的目標。CEO說Off Target的原因還是因為原料短缺。既然FY2018的目標是70/30，我們就靜觀公司是否能達到這個目標。
CFO說泰國SMTI的Listing還是有阻擾。這是因為SMTI和SMTT有重疊的部分，泰國監管方面一定要EG將大馬和泰國的業務區分的仔細，不可重疊，以照顧泰國的股東，Listing很大可能會Abort。筆者認為問題不大，要Expand泰國廠房也只能透過Borrowings或Internally Generated Fund。可喜的是從FY2017年報裡，泰國SMTI的Non-current Assets已經從FY2016的54.145 Million來到FY2017的82.159 Million，這證明管理層已經著手擴張泰國廠房。
CEO也透露剛在2017 Asia IoT Business Platform拿到的Award of Excellence in Enterprise Innovation - Malaysia被很多人忽略了，CEO說馬來西亞只有EG和SIME DARBY拿到這個獎項。這個Award他們申請了兩年都拿不到，結果R&D的一個年輕人寫了一個Proposal就拿到了。有了這個Award可以去申請Grant做更多關於IoT的東西，也讓公司更加受益於任何IoT的機會。
CEO說R&D Expense大約會在Revenue的1%-3%左右。筆者問道關於在年報新增的3間Penang Suntech Office，CEO回答的確是為了R&D擴張用途。公司的R&D工程師目前是20位，打算增加到30位。另外公司也會做不一樣的東西去擴大銷售，如R&D正在做著Voice Control System嘗試賣給顧客，據CEO說這個System還能夠識別福建音或潮州音。
筆者也問文年報裡新增的Vacant Land是否為了起第3工廠，CEO回答Yes，不過這將會是不一樣的東西，將會申請Grant來起Green Factory。隔壁的SHARP也有意要將工廠賣掉，不過價錢太貴，所以沒有考慮。關於第3工廠，筆者認為還遙遠，不會短期生效，畢竟第2工廠還有擴張空間。
終結:透過與CEO和CFO的對話，這個AGM讓筆者收穫良多資訊，透過剛發佈的Q1 FY2018季報，Receivables下降的同時， Cash Flow也變得非常漂亮，再來 International Procument Hub也讓公司在採購時候更具競爭力，這確認公司有在用心做事，處在正確的成長道路上，這讓筆者可以放心的繼續守候，與公司一起成長。
注:此文章只是彙報EG AGM的點滴和一些筆者的感想，筆者一概不負責任何人讀了此文章後的投資決定。
网络收费业务俏．MYEG首季多赚30%
2017-11-30 09:29
（吉隆坡29日讯）网络收费业务走高，提振MYEG服务（MYEG，0138，主板贸服组）净利，截至2017年9月30日止首季，该公司净利起30.29%至5278万2000令吉。
首季营业额则涨24.74%至9803万9000令吉。
该公司董事部透过文告表示，外劳准证更新、重聘、保险及其他缴付次数增加，进而提振营业额。
展望未来，董事部说，与外劳相关线上服务皆在成长，可为该公司带来正面影响，董事部乐观与谨慎看待业绩表现，并持续推出新服务。
文章来源：星洲日报‧财经‧2017.11.30
（吉隆坡29日讯）网络收费业务走高，提振MYEG服务（MYEG，0138，主板贸服组）净利，截至2017年9月30日止首季，该公司净利起30.29%至5278万2000令吉。
首季营业额则涨24.74%至9803万9000令吉。
该公司董事部透过文告表示，外劳准证更新、重聘、保险及其他缴付次数增加，进而提振营业额。
展望未来，董事部说，与外劳相关线上服务皆在成长，可为该公司带来正面影响，董事部乐观与谨慎看待业绩表现，并持续推出新服务。
文章来源：星洲日报‧财经‧2017.11.30
政府为何祭出冻房令? 原来是为了消除这些人!
1853点看 2017年11月29日
（吉隆坡29日讯）第二财长拿督斯里佐哈里阿都干尼直言，政府这次祭出冻结令，是为了消除“不务正业”，原本从事其他行业，却在产业领域插上一脚，并“搞砸”整个市场的发展商。
政府希望遏制一些有此心思之人，让他们不敢轻易踏足房地产领域。
他形容当今国内房产市场犹如一盘“罗惹”，掺杂着不同性质的业者。
根据国家银行向财政部汇报，部分发展商来自制造业，因为拥有资金就购买土地，当起发展商。更糟的是，这些业者一窝蜂兴建高档产业，最终无人问津，导致供应过剩。
“这些都不是认真的发展商，如果让他们随意进入，将毁了认真的发展商。”
13万滞销单位总值1500亿
政府这次祭出冻结令，源自于国家银行向首相兼财长拿督斯里纳吉一次将近两小时的汇报。
佐哈里昨晚出席大马房地产发展商会年度晚宴时指出，国行向纳吉讲解我国房产业可能面对的风险，并提出相关数据，如我国目前滞销的房产多达13万个单位，总值约1500亿令吉。
这13万个单位中，大部分是服务式公寓、小型家庭办公室及Studio套房，占大概6万个单位。
他说，这些滞销单位每平方尺价格可能都高于2000令吉，一个500平方尺的单位可能就要价100万令吉，这价格不合理。
佐哈里说：“谁来买呀？”
应以爱尔兰为鉴
佐哈里说，在此事上，国人须以爱尔兰引以为鉴，该国曾是一个信贷评级3A的国家，而该国的房地产行业占了其国内生产总值的35%比重。
“当国际金融海啸来袭时，爱尔兰的金融机构也受到影响，也因为该行业的崩溃，导致该国经济不堪一击，而在短短6个月内，其信贷评级更是下滑到3B的程度。”
他说，爱尔兰最终需要向国际货币基金、欧盟等借贷600亿欧元（约2976亿令吉）来救国，该国经济至今仍低迷不振。
（吉隆坡29日讯）第二财长拿督斯里佐哈里阿都干尼直言，政府这次祭出冻结令，是为了消除“不务正业”，原本从事其他行业，却在产业领域插上一脚，并“搞砸”整个市场的发展商。
政府希望遏制一些有此心思之人，让他们不敢轻易踏足房地产领域。
他形容当今国内房产市场犹如一盘“罗惹”，掺杂着不同性质的业者。
根据国家银行向财政部汇报，部分发展商来自制造业，因为拥有资金就购买土地，当起发展商。更糟的是，这些业者一窝蜂兴建高档产业，最终无人问津，导致供应过剩。
“这些都不是认真的发展商，如果让他们随意进入，将毁了认真的发展商。”
13万滞销单位总值1500亿
政府这次祭出冻结令，源自于国家银行向首相兼财长拿督斯里纳吉一次将近两小时的汇报。
佐哈里昨晚出席大马房地产发展商会年度晚宴时指出，国行向纳吉讲解我国房产业可能面对的风险，并提出相关数据，如我国目前滞销的房产多达13万个单位，总值约1500亿令吉。
这13万个单位中，大部分是服务式公寓、小型家庭办公室及Studio套房，占大概6万个单位。
他说，这些滞销单位每平方尺价格可能都高于2000令吉，一个500平方尺的单位可能就要价100万令吉，这价格不合理。
佐哈里说：“谁来买呀？”
应以爱尔兰为鉴
佐哈里说，在此事上，国人须以爱尔兰引以为鉴，该国曾是一个信贷评级3A的国家，而该国的房地产行业占了其国内生产总值的35%比重。
“当国际金融海啸来袭时，爱尔兰的金融机构也受到影响，也因为该行业的崩溃，导致该国经济不堪一击，而在短短6个月内，其信贷评级更是下滑到3B的程度。”
他说，爱尔兰最终需要向国际货币基金、欧盟等借贷600亿欧元（约2976亿令吉）来救国，该国经济至今仍低迷不振。
Binasat appoints adviser for IPO
BUSINESS NEWS
Thursday, 30 Nov 2017
KUALA LUMPUR: Binasat Communications Bhd has signed an underwriting agreement with Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd (Kenanga IB) for its proposed initial public offering (IPO) on the Ace Market of Bursa Malaysia.
Binasat is principally involved in the provision of telecommunication supporting services for satellite; mobile and fibre optic telecommunications networks.
“We believe that becoming listed will create opportunities and provide us the ability to enhance Binasat Communications’ corporate reputation as well as brand recognition,” said Binasat managing director Na Boon Aik in a statement.
Kenanga IB will act as the company's principal adviser, sponsor, underwriter and placement agent for the IPO.
The company, had on Oct 12, 2017, received approval from Bursa Securities for its proposed IPO. — Bernama
Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/11/30/binasat-appoints-adviser-for-ipo/#KFjEFZ7A95OttrLd.99
Thursday, 30 Nov 2017
KUALA LUMPUR: Binasat Communications Bhd has signed an underwriting agreement with Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd (Kenanga IB) for its proposed initial public offering (IPO) on the Ace Market of Bursa Malaysia.
Binasat is principally involved in the provision of telecommunication supporting services for satellite; mobile and fibre optic telecommunications networks.
“We believe that becoming listed will create opportunities and provide us the ability to enhance Binasat Communications’ corporate reputation as well as brand recognition,” said Binasat managing director Na Boon Aik in a statement.
Kenanga IB will act as the company's principal adviser, sponsor, underwriter and placement agent for the IPO.
The company, had on Oct 12, 2017, received approval from Bursa Securities for its proposed IPO. — Bernama
Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/11/30/binasat-appoints-adviser-for-ipo/#KFjEFZ7A95OttrLd.99
盧志威：半導體股要居安思危
文章日期：2017年11月30日
【明報專訊】摩根士丹利最近發表報告，指出半導體的「超級周期」可能見頂，尤其是亞洲區的生產商如三星、台積電等，消息令到這個板塊的個股紛紛下跌。大摩理由之一是高速運算相關的半導體需求將暫時放緩；二是智能手機處理器的晶片尺寸縮減，可能抵消出貨量增長；三是半導體產業中，落後晶圓代工廠急起直追，大舉增加產能，終導致售價下滑。
中國新建半導體廠 超日韓台總和
其實中國近來全力發展半導體，從2017到2019年將有15家半導體廠興建，比韓國的3間、日本的4間、台灣的7間加起來都要多，到了明年中國的半導體投資額將佔全球的21%，僅次於韓國，而且其技術水平相較龍頭只落後3年，可以預期在兩年後，供應將大大增加。
短期來說，半導體的需求仍然強勁，在Internet of Things（物聯網）下每樣電子產品都是需求，問題是產能增長如此快，需求是否足以消化？這是整個行業需要考慮的，對於半導體兩大主要生產地韓國和台灣，一旦中國有自己的生產商，華為、小米、OPPO、vivo、聯想等硬件生產商，肯定都是「愛國」的，一定會轉用國貨，到時候中國會取得大量中低端市場，對韓國和台灣的廠商是重創。
內地硬件商轉用國貨機會大
歷史已證明，但凡中國廠商大舉增產，無論故事多完美，最後市場只會愈做愈平，就算是中國廠商之間也會互相擠壓利潤空間，目前市場仍然未飽和，派對可以繼續，不過一兩年後肯定是另一個世界。
烏托邦資產管理合伙人
[盧志威 美股搏擊]
【明報專訊】摩根士丹利最近發表報告，指出半導體的「超級周期」可能見頂，尤其是亞洲區的生產商如三星、台積電等，消息令到這個板塊的個股紛紛下跌。大摩理由之一是高速運算相關的半導體需求將暫時放緩；二是智能手機處理器的晶片尺寸縮減，可能抵消出貨量增長；三是半導體產業中，落後晶圓代工廠急起直追，大舉增加產能，終導致售價下滑。
中國新建半導體廠 超日韓台總和
其實中國近來全力發展半導體，從2017到2019年將有15家半導體廠興建，比韓國的3間、日本的4間、台灣的7間加起來都要多，到了明年中國的半導體投資額將佔全球的21%，僅次於韓國，而且其技術水平相較龍頭只落後3年，可以預期在兩年後，供應將大大增加。
短期來說，半導體的需求仍然強勁，在Internet of Things（物聯網）下每樣電子產品都是需求，問題是產能增長如此快，需求是否足以消化？這是整個行業需要考慮的，對於半導體兩大主要生產地韓國和台灣，一旦中國有自己的生產商，華為、小米、OPPO、vivo、聯想等硬件生產商，肯定都是「愛國」的，一定會轉用國貨，到時候中國會取得大量中低端市場，對韓國和台灣的廠商是重創。
內地硬件商轉用國貨機會大
歷史已證明，但凡中國廠商大舉增產，無論故事多完美，最後市場只會愈做愈平，就算是中國廠商之間也會互相擠壓利潤空間，目前市場仍然未飽和，派對可以繼續，不過一兩年後肯定是另一個世界。
烏托邦資產管理合伙人
[盧志威 美股搏擊]
https://www.mpfinance.com/fin/columnist2.php?col=1478684126874&node=1511983231004&issue=20171130
LED 系列之第一篇：IQGROUP 篇 之第二篇 业绩大跌，你准备好了吗？
November 29, 2017
Morgan Lim 反思者
笔者在上个月股价跌了40%时，写了一篇IQGROUP的文章，有兴趣的可以参考以下的link。
https://limwy94.wixsite.com/foodforthought/single-post/2017/10/18/LED-%E9%A2%86%E5%9F%9F-%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%80%E7%AF%87%EF%BC%9A-IQGROUP
笔者曾在第一篇写了以下这段话:
"就以管理层的回复来看，我们绝对应该相信接下来的Q2 业绩报告是不会有多美的。而自己品牌的新产品会在明年才推出，所以IQGroup要等多至少两个季度后，才有可能有亮丽的表现。 所以我们剩下来该做的就是做些简单的估计来预测股价在Q2业绩后会如何表现。
Case 1：
若 Q2 的业绩如 Q1 一样，最新四个季度的EPS是 22.53。 但，以上管理层说了会转移专注回传统的ODM业务，所以笔者相信Q2季度会比Q1来得好，可是或许比去年来得低。所以笔者纯粹猜测：
Case 2：
Q2 的业绩EPS 有6 cent，业绩将yoy下滑27%，那么最新四个季度的EPS是 25.53。若市场还是保持一样给予PE 10的valuation，那么股价将会是RM 2.55。若市场非常悲观，给予还没“冷眼效应”前的低 PE 8.4的valuation，那么股价将会是RM 2.15。 （这应该不可能发生吧)"
今日19 Nov 2017, 业绩出炉了，看看吧。
没看错，大跌了所有人的眼镜，竟然迎来了一个亏损的季度报告。与笔者自己先前预测的6 cent EPS相比起来，这个季度EPS竟然只有 -0.28 cents。看看什么原因吧：
是的，主要三个原因：
1）Revenue下滑和sales model mixes改变了。
2）一次性花费 RM 2.42 million for Employee Performance Reward。(Erm....想好的一面，哈哈，员工今年的表现很优异哦！去年的4份Quarter Report都没看过这个花费 XD)
3)Foreign Exchange Loss RM 0.38 million
(PS: 注意！ R&D for ODM are currently working for new product launches which will launch in the months and year ahead. 也就是说 ODM 需要 months和 year才能恢复呀！)
看回上个季度报告，里面的Foreign Exchange Loss比这个季度更高呢，Foreign Exchange Loss 高达 RM 1.15 m。所以要看真正的Operating Income, 上个季度是 RM 4.28 m, 而这个季度如果除去one off expenses和Foreign Exchange Loss，真正的 Operating Income 会是 RM 2.1 m，比上个季度还来得更低。对笔者而言，也就是真正的Operating Income qoq下跌了50%之多，这是笔者不敢想象的。
看回笔者在第一篇写的，管理层说过的话：
"Due to the recent decline in ODM business, we are currently making some adjustment to balance our current R&D resources to refocus on some of our traditional ODM business. With the continued support and new business opportunities from our ODM business, we remain confident regarding prospect ahead of us."
Erm, 管理层在上个季度说了会专注回ODM business。但是这个季度ODM还是做不好，原因如下：
这个季度的业绩做得比上个季度差原因就是ODM customers 减少新产品的推出，所以IQGROUP呢，哎呀，无疑就是雪上加霜。上个季度OBM做不好，focus回ODM，但是这个季度ODM的顾客slow down，IQGROUP两头不到岸，还真可怜。
好，可怜够了，我们看看以下的图：
图1：这个季度的。
图2：上个季度的。
读者们，注意看，PBT 那的column，Manufacturing 和 Trading就是导致这个季度qoq还会持续下滑的罪魁祸首了。我们可以知道的就是ODM直接影响了这两个Segments。
笔者读了后，笔者个人对IQGROUP做了个猜测，上个季度，Manufacturing迎来了亏损，原因是专注于OBM，忽略ODM。而这个季度管理层会专注ODM的研究，可是Manufacturing在这个季度亏损得更多了，笔者猜想应该就是说公司花了不少钱在manufacture自己brand的产品或者就是ODM部门因为有额外更多的material cost，operating or administration cost，所以亏损也就增加了。
至于Trading Segment，OBM根本还没有产品卖，所以这边卖得差就应该全数赖在ODM身上吧，哈哈。
所以呢，为了减少uncertainty，笔者之后会想办法找indicators来追踪IQGROUP的ODM segment业绩，希望笔者努力后会幸运地发现蛛丝马迹吧。
再看看下图吧，
非常不乐观的，类似这样的情况会持续一整个FY，也就是持续多两个Quarter。Erm，感觉很惨叻，我们来试试forecast EPS 和 市场会给的PE吧。
若下个季度，ODM还是做不好，OBM也做不好，EPS就和上个季度一样吧。EPS若是 3 cents，全年EPS会是 12.76 cents。以现在低迷的市场，PE给个10 的话，哇靠，股价只值 RM 1.28。这样写不是吓死人。
我们乐观点，下个季度EPS 5 cents，全年EPS会是 14.76 cents。PE 10， 股价等于RM 1.48，哇，还是好低。
我们再乐观一点，PE 15，下个季度 EPS 5 cents，全年EPS会是 14.76 cents，股价将会是 RM 2.22。看起来还没那么恐怖，可是现在的股价是 RM 2.76。 Erm，所以嘛，读者们看着办吧。
人嘛，或多或少都有些肤浅，哈哈。当看到东西好时，会有些乐观，但看到东西不好时，就会多多的悲观。明天股价免不了大跌了的，至于是Opportunity还是Crisis，读者们自己做决定吧。
所以呢，笔者对IQGroup的建议就是：
“若要操作IQGroup，短期内最多就只是投机 ，玩个Rebound 和 “Hit and Run” 。因为毕竟短期的业绩是不会多美的”
“若要长期操作，下个月Q3出来后，若股价真的hit 到 RM 2.22，才来考虑长期投资吧。以那么便宜的价钱，收个1-2年，等OBM和ODM的产品真的推出，成长再次出现，EPS恢复之时，那才来考虑在这个股票赚个100% 吧” (前提是股灾不要在这段期间出现发生)
纯粹个人意见，希望可以帮到大家，买卖自负。
反思者 上
欢迎大家互相交流分享，喜欢笔者的可以like这个page
https://www.facebook.com/Food-For-Thought-%E5%8F%8D%E6%80%9D%E8%80%85-165594653947325/
若读者不想错过笔者的每一篇文章，可以填入自己的email 如下来subscribe笔者的notification，这样每次笔者发新文章时就会发一个notification到你们的email address了。
1）先去笔者网站的主页https://limwy94.wixsite.com/foodforthought
2）然后填写email and submit就好了。 XD
Morgan Lim 反思者
笔者在上个月股价跌了40%时，写了一篇IQGROUP的文章，有兴趣的可以参考以下的link。
https://limwy94.wixsite.com/foodforthought/single-post/2017/10/18/LED-%E9%A2%86%E5%9F%9F-%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%80%E7%AF%87%EF%BC%9A-IQGROUP
笔者曾在第一篇写了以下这段话:
"就以管理层的回复来看，我们绝对应该相信接下来的Q2 业绩报告是不会有多美的。而自己品牌的新产品会在明年才推出，所以IQGroup要等多至少两个季度后，才有可能有亮丽的表现。 所以我们剩下来该做的就是做些简单的估计来预测股价在Q2业绩后会如何表现。
Case 1：
若 Q2 的业绩如 Q1 一样，最新四个季度的EPS是 22.53。 但，以上管理层说了会转移专注回传统的ODM业务，所以笔者相信Q2季度会比Q1来得好，可是或许比去年来得低。所以笔者纯粹猜测：
Case 2：
Q2 的业绩EPS 有6 cent，业绩将yoy下滑27%，那么最新四个季度的EPS是 25.53。若市场还是保持一样给予PE 10的valuation，那么股价将会是RM 2.55。若市场非常悲观，给予还没“冷眼效应”前的低 PE 8.4的valuation，那么股价将会是RM 2.15。 （这应该不可能发生吧)"
今日19 Nov 2017, 业绩出炉了，看看吧。
没看错，大跌了所有人的眼镜，竟然迎来了一个亏损的季度报告。与笔者自己先前预测的6 cent EPS相比起来，这个季度EPS竟然只有 -0.28 cents。看看什么原因吧：
是的，主要三个原因：
1）Revenue下滑和sales model mixes改变了。
2）一次性花费 RM 2.42 million for Employee Performance Reward。(Erm....想好的一面，哈哈，员工今年的表现很优异哦！去年的4份Quarter Report都没看过这个花费 XD)
3)Foreign Exchange Loss RM 0.38 million
(PS: 注意！ R&D for ODM are currently working for new product launches which will launch in the months and year ahead. 也就是说 ODM 需要 months和 year才能恢复呀！)
看回上个季度报告，里面的Foreign Exchange Loss比这个季度更高呢，Foreign Exchange Loss 高达 RM 1.15 m。所以要看真正的Operating Income, 上个季度是 RM 4.28 m, 而这个季度如果除去one off expenses和Foreign Exchange Loss，真正的 Operating Income 会是 RM 2.1 m，比上个季度还来得更低。对笔者而言，也就是真正的Operating Income qoq下跌了50%之多，这是笔者不敢想象的。
看回笔者在第一篇写的，管理层说过的话：
"Due to the recent decline in ODM business, we are currently making some adjustment to balance our current R&D resources to refocus on some of our traditional ODM business. With the continued support and new business opportunities from our ODM business, we remain confident regarding prospect ahead of us."
Erm, 管理层在上个季度说了会专注回ODM business。但是这个季度ODM还是做不好，原因如下：
这个季度的业绩做得比上个季度差原因就是ODM customers 减少新产品的推出，所以IQGROUP呢，哎呀，无疑就是雪上加霜。上个季度OBM做不好，focus回ODM，但是这个季度ODM的顾客slow down，IQGROUP两头不到岸，还真可怜。
好，可怜够了，我们看看以下的图：
图1：这个季度的。
图2：上个季度的。
读者们，注意看，PBT 那的column，Manufacturing 和 Trading就是导致这个季度qoq还会持续下滑的罪魁祸首了。我们可以知道的就是ODM直接影响了这两个Segments。
笔者读了后，笔者个人对IQGROUP做了个猜测，上个季度，Manufacturing迎来了亏损，原因是专注于OBM，忽略ODM。而这个季度管理层会专注ODM的研究，可是Manufacturing在这个季度亏损得更多了，笔者猜想应该就是说公司花了不少钱在manufacture自己brand的产品或者就是ODM部门因为有额外更多的material cost，operating or administration cost，所以亏损也就增加了。
至于Trading Segment，OBM根本还没有产品卖，所以这边卖得差就应该全数赖在ODM身上吧，哈哈。
所以呢，为了减少uncertainty，笔者之后会想办法找indicators来追踪IQGROUP的ODM segment业绩，希望笔者努力后会幸运地发现蛛丝马迹吧。
再看看下图吧，
非常不乐观的，类似这样的情况会持续一整个FY，也就是持续多两个Quarter。Erm，感觉很惨叻，我们来试试forecast EPS 和 市场会给的PE吧。
若下个季度，ODM还是做不好，OBM也做不好，EPS就和上个季度一样吧。EPS若是 3 cents，全年EPS会是 12.76 cents。以现在低迷的市场，PE给个10 的话，哇靠，股价只值 RM 1.28。这样写不是吓死人。
我们乐观点，下个季度EPS 5 cents，全年EPS会是 14.76 cents。PE 10， 股价等于RM 1.48，哇，还是好低。
我们再乐观一点，PE 15，下个季度 EPS 5 cents，全年EPS会是 14.76 cents，股价将会是 RM 2.22。看起来还没那么恐怖，可是现在的股价是 RM 2.76。 Erm，所以嘛，读者们看着办吧。
人嘛，或多或少都有些肤浅，哈哈。当看到东西好时，会有些乐观，但看到东西不好时，就会多多的悲观。明天股价免不了大跌了的，至于是Opportunity还是Crisis，读者们自己做决定吧。
所以呢，笔者对IQGroup的建议就是：
“若要操作IQGroup，短期内最多就只是投机 ，玩个Rebound 和 “Hit and Run” 。因为毕竟短期的业绩是不会多美的”
“若要长期操作，下个月Q3出来后，若股价真的hit 到 RM 2.22，才来考虑长期投资吧。以那么便宜的价钱，收个1-2年，等OBM和ODM的产品真的推出，成长再次出现，EPS恢复之时，那才来考虑在这个股票赚个100% 吧” (前提是股灾不要在这段期间出现发生)
纯粹个人意见，希望可以帮到大家，买卖自负。
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Ta Ann Holdings - Temporary Setback at Timber Segment
Author: PublicInvest | Publish date:
Ta Ann posted core earnings of RM92.7m (+7.3% YoY) for 9MFY17, making up 72.3% and 71.8% of our and consensus full-year estimates. The encouraging plantation results were partly offset by the tumble in timber’s earnings, mainly on the back of losses in plywood business and also insufficient log supplies and delay in shipments, resulting in higher cost pressure for the logging business. No dividend was declared for the quarter. We maintain our Outperform call on Ta Ann with an unchanged TP of RM4.14.
- Topline flattish (QoQ: +15.7%, YoY: -11.9%). The weaker sales contributions from logging (-51.3%) and plywood (-27.8%) was partly offset by stronger plantation sales (+4.8%). Plantation revenue rose 4.8% YoY to RM206.5m, led by an increase in CPO prices and FFB production. FFB production rose 7% to 221,966mt while average CPO selling price surged from RM2,412/mt to RM2,666/mt. Timber sales dipped 33.4% YoY to RM101.6m, mainly dragged by weaker sales volume despite a rebound in timber prices. Average export log price rose 16% YoY to USD297/cu m while average plywood price gained 4% YoY to USD461/cu m. On the sales volume, export logs tumbled 55% YoY to 18,240 cu m while plywood dipped 37% YoY to 32,710 cu m.
- 3QFY17 core earnings (QoQ: -27.4%, YoY: -53.0%). Despite stronger plantation earnings (+5.1%), group’s core earnings tumbled 53% YoY to RM23.3m as timber segment suffered another red quarter with a loss of RM5.2m. Logs earnings tumbled 80.5% YoY to RM3.5m while plywood made a bigger loss of RM14m. Plantation earnings improved 5.1% YoY to RM41m (Average transacted USD/MYR was RM4.1927 vs RM4.2477 in 2QFY17). 3QFY17 all-in FFB cost of production improved from RM290/mt in 3QFY16 to RM260/mt, driven by the increased FFB production.
- Outlook guidance. Management sees a slow pick-up in demand for its timber products while plantation segment is expected to continue to deliver decent results, led by the positive CPO prices and increasing FFB production. It also targets to see FFB production growth of 11% for the next 2 years. Meanwhile, the all-in FFB cost of production is expected to average around RM335/mt for FY17 while log export cost would be around USD95/cu m. Commenting on the poor timber results, it is believed that there was a mismatch of log supply or insufficient log supplies as well as delay in shipments, resulting in higher cost pressure for the timber segment. Nevertheless, the backlog issue has been resolved and the sales are expected to carry forward to the final quarter, which will see a strong turnaround in 4Q.
Source: PublicInvest Research - 29 Nov 2017
Power Root Bhd - 1H18 Below Expectation
Author: kiasutrader | Publish date: Wed, 29 Nov 2017, 09:46 AM
1H18 core PATAMI of RM14.1m (-20%) is below estimates, due to higher production costs (likely stemming from prolonged, unfavourable hedging policies) and marketing expenses. The 2.5 sen dividend announced is within expectations. We believe the group’s hedging positions will be revisited in FY19 to more optimal levels for better margins. Post results, we cut our FY18E/FY19E earnings assumptions by 23.9%/9.2%. Maintain OUTPERFORM with a lower TP of RM2.45.
1H18 below expectations. 1H18 top-line of RM228.9m is within our expectation while the core PATAMI of RM14.1m is below, accounting for 32% of full-year estimates. The negative deviation was due to higherthan-expected raw material prices. An interim 2.5 sen dividend was announced, within our estimate.
YoY, 1H18 sales of RM228.9m grew by 12%, led by a 35% increase in export sales, which was softened by a 5% decrease in domestic sales. However, adjusted EBITDA declined to RM18.6m (-48%) from lower margin at 8.1% (-9.3ppt) due to high commodity price exposures (i.e. coffee and sugar). Further, higher marketing expenses were incurred during the year on more aggressive media participation in the Middle East. Thanks to lower effective taxes at 6.9% (-1.7ppt), 1H18 core PATAMI recorded at RM14.1m (-20%).
QoQ, 2Q18 revenue grew by 10% to RM119.7m, similarly on the back of stronger exports (+24%) against a slightly weaker local demand (-3%). Operating profit expanded c.200%, mainly spurred in part by the heavier marketing costs incurred in the Middle East during 1Q18. This translated to a stronger core PATAMI of RM10.2m (+c.160%) after an effective tax rate of 8.3% during the quarter (+6.0ppt).
Cost pressures undermining perky sales outlook. The group continues to enjoy encouraging demand in the MENA region, likely backed by the group’s new “Alicafe Signature French Roast” variant. The latest export numbers accounted for around 50% of group revenue as domestic sales still proved uninspiring due to soft consumer spending. However, high commodity costs clouded recent earnings despite an overall improvement in global commodity trends. We believe this to be the continuing result of prolonged hedging positions at the beginning of the year, locked at unfavourable levels. To illustrate, average Arabica beans prices, which trailed at c.USD145/mt during the Dec 2016-Jan 2017 period, recently recorded at c.USD125/mt during Sep 2017-Oct 2017 (source: Bloomberg). Nonetheless, we are still hopeful on a shift in the costing landscape of the group in FY19 when its hedging positions incline towards greener levels.
Post results, while we maintain our FY18E/FY19E sales estimates, we tone down our margins assumptions to account for greater production costs. This lowers our FY18E/FY19E net earnings estimates by 23.9%/9.2%. In lieu of the weaker earnings, we also tweak our dividend assumptions to 10.0sen/12.0sen from 12.0sen/13.0sen.
Maintain OUTPERFORM with a lower TP of RM2.45 (from RM2.70, previously). Our new TP is derived from a revised 14.3 sen FY19E EPS against an unchanged 17.0x PER (3-year average Fwd. PER). Although we have trimmed our TP, we believe the stock’s fundamental potential is still intact given that sales numbers have been performing as expected. The stock still commands a strong potential yield of 5.0%/6.0% in FY18E/FY19E, post-dividend adjustments.
Source: Kenanga Research - 29 Nov 2017
1H18 core PATAMI of RM14.1m (-20%) is below estimates, due to higher production costs (likely stemming from prolonged, unfavourable hedging policies) and marketing expenses. The 2.5 sen dividend announced is within expectations. We believe the group’s hedging positions will be revisited in FY19 to more optimal levels for better margins. Post results, we cut our FY18E/FY19E earnings assumptions by 23.9%/9.2%. Maintain OUTPERFORM with a lower TP of RM2.45.
1H18 below expectations. 1H18 top-line of RM228.9m is within our expectation while the core PATAMI of RM14.1m is below, accounting for 32% of full-year estimates. The negative deviation was due to higherthan-expected raw material prices. An interim 2.5 sen dividend was announced, within our estimate.
YoY, 1H18 sales of RM228.9m grew by 12%, led by a 35% increase in export sales, which was softened by a 5% decrease in domestic sales. However, adjusted EBITDA declined to RM18.6m (-48%) from lower margin at 8.1% (-9.3ppt) due to high commodity price exposures (i.e. coffee and sugar). Further, higher marketing expenses were incurred during the year on more aggressive media participation in the Middle East. Thanks to lower effective taxes at 6.9% (-1.7ppt), 1H18 core PATAMI recorded at RM14.1m (-20%).
QoQ, 2Q18 revenue grew by 10% to RM119.7m, similarly on the back of stronger exports (+24%) against a slightly weaker local demand (-3%). Operating profit expanded c.200%, mainly spurred in part by the heavier marketing costs incurred in the Middle East during 1Q18. This translated to a stronger core PATAMI of RM10.2m (+c.160%) after an effective tax rate of 8.3% during the quarter (+6.0ppt).
Cost pressures undermining perky sales outlook. The group continues to enjoy encouraging demand in the MENA region, likely backed by the group’s new “Alicafe Signature French Roast” variant. The latest export numbers accounted for around 50% of group revenue as domestic sales still proved uninspiring due to soft consumer spending. However, high commodity costs clouded recent earnings despite an overall improvement in global commodity trends. We believe this to be the continuing result of prolonged hedging positions at the beginning of the year, locked at unfavourable levels. To illustrate, average Arabica beans prices, which trailed at c.USD145/mt during the Dec 2016-Jan 2017 period, recently recorded at c.USD125/mt during Sep 2017-Oct 2017 (source: Bloomberg). Nonetheless, we are still hopeful on a shift in the costing landscape of the group in FY19 when its hedging positions incline towards greener levels.
Post results, while we maintain our FY18E/FY19E sales estimates, we tone down our margins assumptions to account for greater production costs. This lowers our FY18E/FY19E net earnings estimates by 23.9%/9.2%. In lieu of the weaker earnings, we also tweak our dividend assumptions to 10.0sen/12.0sen from 12.0sen/13.0sen.
Maintain OUTPERFORM with a lower TP of RM2.45 (from RM2.70, previously). Our new TP is derived from a revised 14.3 sen FY19E EPS against an unchanged 17.0x PER (3-year average Fwd. PER). Although we have trimmed our TP, we believe the stock’s fundamental potential is still intact given that sales numbers have been performing as expected. The stock still commands a strong potential yield of 5.0%/6.0% in FY18E/FY19E, post-dividend adjustments.
Source: Kenanga Research - 29 Nov 2017
United U-LI Berhad - New Plant Yet To Reach Optimal Operation
Author: sectoranalyst | Publish date: Wed, 29 Nov 2017, 09:55 AM
Investment Highlights
9MFY17 earnings below expectation
9MFY17 profit fell 26.8% yoy to RM19.0m
Earnings forecast cut by 22%/4% for FY17F/FY18F
Maintain BUY with lower TP of RM4.68
9MFY17 earnings below expectation. United U-Li’s (U-Li) results came in below expectations, making up 56%/52% of our estimates and consensus’ forecast. This is due to slower-than-expected sales growth as well as higher raw material and operating costs. It has not declared any dividend ytd.
9MFY17 profit fell 26.8% yoy to RM19.0m due to higher operating costs and revenue which dipped by 2.2% yoy to RM147.9m. Operating costs such as administration costs (+8% yoy), selling and distribution costs (+5% yoy) have risen compared to the previous corresponding period while operations at its Nilai plant have not reached optimal efficiency.
3QFY17 profit declined by 31.3% qoq to RM6.5m mainly due to higher raw material costs as well as higher operating expenses although revenue improved by 18.6%qoq to RM55.1m. We estimate that raw material prices could have increased by about 20% qoq. The higher revenue was attributed to the higher demand for electrical products during the quarter.
Earnings forecast cut by 22%/4% for FY17F/FY18F to RM26.27m/RM45.33m as we assume lower revenue growth and higher operating costs. We have reduced our topline estimates by 8.5%/7.1% in FY17F/FY18F to RM203.8m/RM251.8m due to the weaker-than-expected boost from the Nilai plant. That said, we are still positive on its FY18F prospects as we expect operational advancement from the Nilai plant as it had only started operations early 2017. Demand for cable support and electrical products is expected to be healthy due to the slew of mega projects in the country as it is a market leader for cable support products locally.
Maintain BUY with lower TP of RM4.68 (previously RM4.88). We have lowered our TP due to the changes in our FY18F EPS forecast of 31.22 sen from 32.51 sen. We have also taken a more conservative assumption on its dividend payout as the company reserves its cash for expansion. We have reduced our FY17F/FY8F DPS to 5.0sen /9.0 sen from 12.0sen/12.0sen previously. Our valuation method is unchanged at 15x PER. U-Li’s balance sheet is still sturdy with net gearing of 1.8%.
Source: MIDF Research - 29 Nov 2017
Investment Highlights
9MFY17 earnings below expectation
9MFY17 profit fell 26.8% yoy to RM19.0m
Earnings forecast cut by 22%/4% for FY17F/FY18F
Maintain BUY with lower TP of RM4.68
9MFY17 earnings below expectation. United U-Li’s (U-Li) results came in below expectations, making up 56%/52% of our estimates and consensus’ forecast. This is due to slower-than-expected sales growth as well as higher raw material and operating costs. It has not declared any dividend ytd.
9MFY17 profit fell 26.8% yoy to RM19.0m due to higher operating costs and revenue which dipped by 2.2% yoy to RM147.9m. Operating costs such as administration costs (+8% yoy), selling and distribution costs (+5% yoy) have risen compared to the previous corresponding period while operations at its Nilai plant have not reached optimal efficiency.
3QFY17 profit declined by 31.3% qoq to RM6.5m mainly due to higher raw material costs as well as higher operating expenses although revenue improved by 18.6%qoq to RM55.1m. We estimate that raw material prices could have increased by about 20% qoq. The higher revenue was attributed to the higher demand for electrical products during the quarter.
Earnings forecast cut by 22%/4% for FY17F/FY18F to RM26.27m/RM45.33m as we assume lower revenue growth and higher operating costs. We have reduced our topline estimates by 8.5%/7.1% in FY17F/FY18F to RM203.8m/RM251.8m due to the weaker-than-expected boost from the Nilai plant. That said, we are still positive on its FY18F prospects as we expect operational advancement from the Nilai plant as it had only started operations early 2017. Demand for cable support and electrical products is expected to be healthy due to the slew of mega projects in the country as it is a market leader for cable support products locally.
Maintain BUY with lower TP of RM4.68 (previously RM4.88). We have lowered our TP due to the changes in our FY18F EPS forecast of 31.22 sen from 32.51 sen. We have also taken a more conservative assumption on its dividend payout as the company reserves its cash for expansion. We have reduced our FY17F/FY8F DPS to 5.0sen /9.0 sen from 12.0sen/12.0sen previously. Our valuation method is unchanged at 15x PER. U-Li’s balance sheet is still sturdy with net gearing of 1.8%.
Source: MIDF Research - 29 Nov 2017
Wednesday, November 29, 2017
Economists raise Malaysia’s GDP forecasts after strong 3Q growth
Bloomberg/Bloomberg
November 29, 2017 11:58 am +08
HONG KONG (Nov 29): The Malaysian economy will expand 5.7% in 2017, 5.2% in 2018 and 5.2% in 2019, according to a survey conducted by Bloomberg News.
* Survey of 32 economists conducted from Nov 21 to Nov 28
* Chance of a recession happening over the next 12 months is 5%, according to 3 respondents
* 2017 CPI forecast at +3.8% y/y versus prior survey +3.7%
** 2018 CPI forecast at +2.6% y/y versus prior survey +2.5%
* Bank Negara Malaysia overnight policy rate seen at 3.00% by end-4Q17, current rate is 3.00%
* Source comments: Hirofumi Suzuki, economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation:"Strong 3Q GDP could push Bank Negara Malaysia to raise interest rates in Jan 2018. The economy will continue to grow next year with strong demands for electronics and their parts. However, as inflation will remain low, the central bank will take a wait-and-see stance after the rate hike."
* Arjen van Dijkhuizen, senior economist at ABN Amro: "We have raised our CPI inflation forecast for 2017 to 4%, from 3.5%. That reflects the pickup in inflation in recent months, it is also a phenomenon seen more broadly in Asia."
Scroll for table of results:
November 29, 2017 11:58 am +08
HONG KONG (Nov 29): The Malaysian economy will expand 5.7% in 2017, 5.2% in 2018 and 5.2% in 2019, according to a survey conducted by Bloomberg News.
* Survey of 32 economists conducted from Nov 21 to Nov 28
* Chance of a recession happening over the next 12 months is 5%, according to 3 respondents
* 2017 CPI forecast at +3.8% y/y versus prior survey +3.7%
** 2018 CPI forecast at +2.6% y/y versus prior survey +2.5%
* Bank Negara Malaysia overnight policy rate seen at 3.00% by end-4Q17, current rate is 3.00%
* Source comments: Hirofumi Suzuki, economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation:"Strong 3Q GDP could push Bank Negara Malaysia to raise interest rates in Jan 2018. The economy will continue to grow next year with strong demands for electronics and their parts. However, as inflation will remain low, the central bank will take a wait-and-see stance after the rate hike."
* Arjen van Dijkhuizen, senior economist at ABN Amro: "We have raised our CPI inflation forecast for 2017 to 4%, from 3.5%. That reflects the pickup in inflation in recent months, it is also a phenomenon seen more broadly in Asia."
Scroll for table of results:
| 4Q | 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q | 1Q | 2Q | Avg. | Avg. | Avg. | |
| 2017 | 2018 | 2018 | 2018 | 2018 | 2019 | 2019 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
| GDP YOY% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% |
| Previous survey | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | n/a | n/a | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.9% |
| CPI YOY% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.1% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.7% |
| Previous survey | 3.0% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.0% | n/a | n/a | 3.7% | 2.5% | 2.8% |
| Unemployment rate | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.3% |
| Previous survey | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| Current Acct. % GDP | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% |
| Previous survey | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% |
| Budget as a % GDP | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | -3.0% | 2.8% | -2.5% |
| Previous survey | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | -3.0% | -2.9% | -2.4% |
| 4Q | 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q | 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q | 1Q | |
| 2017 | 2018 | 2018 | 2018 | 2018 | 2019 | 2019 | 2019 | 2010 | 2020 | |
| Central Bank Rate | 3.00% | 3.25% | 3.25% | 3.25% | 3.25% | 3.25% | 3.38% | 3.38% | 3.50% | 3.75% |
| Previous survey | 3.00% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 3.13% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 3.25% | 3.25% | n/a |
| 3-month Klibor | 3.40% | 3.55% | 3.60% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Previous survey | 3.40% | 3.45% | 3.40% | 3.65% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 10-Year Bond | 4.10% | 4.15% | 4.20% | 4.33% | 4.50% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Previous survey | 4.18% | 4.23% | 4.30% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
NOTE: All figures are expressed as of the end of the quarter except for GDP.
Tan Chong wider losses pull share price to 8-year low
Neily Syafiqah Eusoff/theedgemarkets.com
November 29, 2017 13:15 pm +08
KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 29): Tan Chong Motor Holdings Bhd invited analysts' downgrades after the Nissan car distributor in Malaysia reported a wider RM23.09 million net loss in the third quarter ended Sept 30, 2017 (3QFY17), from a net loss of RM4.5 million a year earlier.
Nine-month (9MFY17) net loss stood at RM81.41 million, from a net loss of RM56.3 million a year earlier, Tan Chong said yesterday.
Today, CIMB Investment Bank Bhd lowered its Tan Chong share target price (TP) to RM1.49, from RM1.55, but maintained its “Reduce” rating on the stock.
“We cut our FY17-19F EPS forecasts by 9-72% to account for lower sales volume assumptions, in view of the weak demand and lack of new model launches,” CIMB wrote in a note today.
At 12:30pm today, Tan Chong shares settled at RM1.52, with 94,900 shares traded. During yesterday's intraday trades, the stock was transacted at RM1.49, the lowest in about eight years since Sept 1, 2009, Bloomberg data show.
Today, Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd said it lowered its TP for Tan Chong shares to RM1.40, from RM1.45, but retained its “Underperform” rating on the stock.
“Given Tan Chong’s weak earnings visibility, as well as loss-making quarterly results, which remain our prime concern, and as such the stock could trade at a steeper discount to its book value.
“We foresee that the recent strengthening in ringgit against US dollar and Japanese yen is still insufficient to negate the adverse effects on Tan Chong’s business model,” Kenanga wrote in a note today.
November 29, 2017 13:15 pm +08
KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 29): Tan Chong Motor Holdings Bhd invited analysts' downgrades after the Nissan car distributor in Malaysia reported a wider RM23.09 million net loss in the third quarter ended Sept 30, 2017 (3QFY17), from a net loss of RM4.5 million a year earlier.
Nine-month (9MFY17) net loss stood at RM81.41 million, from a net loss of RM56.3 million a year earlier, Tan Chong said yesterday.
Today, CIMB Investment Bank Bhd lowered its Tan Chong share target price (TP) to RM1.49, from RM1.55, but maintained its “Reduce” rating on the stock.
“We cut our FY17-19F EPS forecasts by 9-72% to account for lower sales volume assumptions, in view of the weak demand and lack of new model launches,” CIMB wrote in a note today.
At 12:30pm today, Tan Chong shares settled at RM1.52, with 94,900 shares traded. During yesterday's intraday trades, the stock was transacted at RM1.49, the lowest in about eight years since Sept 1, 2009, Bloomberg data show.
Today, Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd said it lowered its TP for Tan Chong shares to RM1.40, from RM1.45, but retained its “Underperform” rating on the stock.
“Given Tan Chong’s weak earnings visibility, as well as loss-making quarterly results, which remain our prime concern, and as such the stock could trade at a steeper discount to its book value.
“We foresee that the recent strengthening in ringgit against US dollar and Japanese yen is still insufficient to negate the adverse effects on Tan Chong’s business model,” Kenanga wrote in a note today.
Serba Dinamik bags RM496m worth of jobs
Supriya Surendran/theedgemarkets.com
November 29, 2017 14:59 pm +08
KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 29): Serba Dinamik Holdings Bhd has bagged four new engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning (EPCC) contracts and four operation and maintenance (O&M) contracts worth a combined RM496 million.
In a filing with Bursa Malaysia today, Serba Dinamik said its wholly-owned subsidiary Serba Dinamik Sdn Bhd (SDSB) has entered into three EPCC contracts and one O&M contract with Greenearth Landmark Sdn Bhd, which are altogether worth RM385 million.
In addition, the company has secured an EPCC contract from Malaysia LNG Sdn Bhd and three separate O&M contracts from JX Nippon Oil & Gas Exploration (Malaysia) Ltd, Malaysia LNG and Petronas Dagangan Bhd, which are worth a combined RM111 million.
"The contracts secured are expected to contribute positively to the group's earnings for the financial years ending Dec 31, 2018 to 2027," said Serba Dinamik.
At 2.33pm, Serba Dinamik shares were down one sen or 0.33% at RM2.99, with 1.22 million shares done, bringing a market capitalisation of RM3.98 billion.
November 29, 2017 14:59 pm +08
KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 29): Serba Dinamik Holdings Bhd has bagged four new engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning (EPCC) contracts and four operation and maintenance (O&M) contracts worth a combined RM496 million.
In a filing with Bursa Malaysia today, Serba Dinamik said its wholly-owned subsidiary Serba Dinamik Sdn Bhd (SDSB) has entered into three EPCC contracts and one O&M contract with Greenearth Landmark Sdn Bhd, which are altogether worth RM385 million.
In addition, the company has secured an EPCC contract from Malaysia LNG Sdn Bhd and three separate O&M contracts from JX Nippon Oil & Gas Exploration (Malaysia) Ltd, Malaysia LNG and Petronas Dagangan Bhd, which are worth a combined RM111 million.
"The contracts secured are expected to contribute positively to the group's earnings for the financial years ending Dec 31, 2018 to 2027," said Serba Dinamik.
At 2.33pm, Serba Dinamik shares were down one sen or 0.33% at RM2.99, with 1.22 million shares done, bringing a market capitalisation of RM3.98 billion.
Kim Hin jumps 4.17% on upgrade
Surin Murugiah/theedgemarkets.com
November 29, 2017 14:47 pm +08
KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 29): Kim Hin Industry Bhd shares jumped 4.17% at the noon break today, after Affin Hwang Capital Research upgraded the stock to “Buy” at RM1.44, with an unchanged target price of RM1.73.
At 2pm, Kim Hin was up 6 sen to RM1.50, with 45,800 shares traded.
In a note today, Affin Hwang Capital said Kim Hin's 3Q17 result showed a strong rebound with a net profit of RM5.9 million (RM600,000 in 2Q17), driven by higher revenue and improvement in operating profit margin.
It said for 9M17, net profit still showed a 52% year-on-year decline to RM8.2 million, from a high base in 9M16.
“Bottom line was boosted by net exceptional gain of RM2.3 million in 9M17.
“We lift our EPS forecasts by 6-27% in FY17-19E, to reflect the net exceptional gain in FY17 and better operating performance.
“Following the correction in the share price, potential upside to our target price of RM1.73 (based on target FY18E Price/book of 0.45x) has 20%, prompting us to upgrade our recommendation to a Buy from Hold,” the research house said.
November 29, 2017 14:47 pm +08
KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 29): Kim Hin Industry Bhd shares jumped 4.17% at the noon break today, after Affin Hwang Capital Research upgraded the stock to “Buy” at RM1.44, with an unchanged target price of RM1.73.
At 2pm, Kim Hin was up 6 sen to RM1.50, with 45,800 shares traded.
In a note today, Affin Hwang Capital said Kim Hin's 3Q17 result showed a strong rebound with a net profit of RM5.9 million (RM600,000 in 2Q17), driven by higher revenue and improvement in operating profit margin.
It said for 9M17, net profit still showed a 52% year-on-year decline to RM8.2 million, from a high base in 9M16.
“Bottom line was boosted by net exceptional gain of RM2.3 million in 9M17.
“We lift our EPS forecasts by 6-27% in FY17-19E, to reflect the net exceptional gain in FY17 and better operating performance.
“Following the correction in the share price, potential upside to our target price of RM1.73 (based on target FY18E Price/book of 0.45x) has 20%, prompting us to upgrade our recommendation to a Buy from Hold,” the research house said.
Surin Murugiah/theedgemarkets.com
November 29, 2017 14:00 pm +08
KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 29): Steel-related stocks advanced this morning on Bursa Malaysia on the back of a report from Moody's Investors Service, in which the rating agency said its outlook for Moody's-rated steel companies in Asia through 2018 is stable, because profitability will be steady during this period, after improving significantly in 2017.
Among advancing steel counters were Southern Steel Bhd (up 3.62% or 8 sen to RM2.29), Tatt Giap Group Bhd (up 3.45% or 0.5 sen to 15 sen), Press Metal Aluminium Holdings Bhd (up 1.82% or 9 sen to RM5.03), Malaysia Steel Works (KL) Bhd (up 0.65% or 1 sen to RM1.55) and CSC Steel Holdings Bhd (up 1.30% or 2 sen to RM1.56).
In a released report titled "Steel — Asia, 2018 outlook”, a senior Moody’s vice president, Kai Hu, said the likely stable profitability for Asian steelmakers that they rate is underpinned by the removal of excess steel production capacity in China and broadly steady demand in Asia as a whole.
Moody's said steel production capacity in China will continue to decline due to the Chinese government's supply-side reforms and environmental protection measures; factors which will reduce the supply glut in Asia.
Moody's explained China drives the outlook for steel companies in Asia, because the country represents the region's largest steel consumer, as well as producer.
"Overall steel demand in Asia will remain stable, with robust demand growth in South and Southeast Asia, and flat growth in China," Hu added.
Moody's report said the stable outlook for steelmakers in Asia also reflects China's purchasing managers' index, which remains above 50, indicating increased manufacturing activity; a situation which is positive for steel demand.
The report said a likely slowdown of contracted sales in China's property sector will have only a limited effect on overall demand and industry fundamentals over the next 12 months, because the strong contracted sales since 2016 will support new construction starts and steel demand over the next several quarters.
It said among major steel-producing Asian countries, operating conditions will be the most supportive in India, because of robust domestic demand and protectionist measures, and despite an increase in raw material prices and new capacity.
It said domestic demand will prove steady in Japan and Korea, which, together with the steelmakers' efforts to cut costs and increase production of premium products, should keep earnings for companies in these two markets higher, when compared with the levels seen in 2015-16.
He added through stringent rules and regulations on members, a total of 189,777 hectares of high conservation value (HCV) areas, equivalent to 250,000 football fields, are being managed.
“There are also emerging trends in Africa, where HCV areas have increased by 13,405 hectares, whereas Malaysia has seen a rise of about 8,399ha of HCV land.
“We have made significant progress in the last year, with RSPO-certified plantations covering a total of 3.2 million ha across 16 countries, which is a 14% increase since the last reporting period (July 1, 2016 to June 30, 2017),” Hu added.
Its latest report as at June 30, 2017 showed RSPO-certified smallholders rose to 139,123, from 109,415, with certified land up to 333,345ha, from 257,649ha a year ago.
November 29, 2017 14:00 pm +08
KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 29): Steel-related stocks advanced this morning on Bursa Malaysia on the back of a report from Moody's Investors Service, in which the rating agency said its outlook for Moody's-rated steel companies in Asia through 2018 is stable, because profitability will be steady during this period, after improving significantly in 2017.
Among advancing steel counters were Southern Steel Bhd (up 3.62% or 8 sen to RM2.29), Tatt Giap Group Bhd (up 3.45% or 0.5 sen to 15 sen), Press Metal Aluminium Holdings Bhd (up 1.82% or 9 sen to RM5.03), Malaysia Steel Works (KL) Bhd (up 0.65% or 1 sen to RM1.55) and CSC Steel Holdings Bhd (up 1.30% or 2 sen to RM1.56).
In a released report titled "Steel — Asia, 2018 outlook”, a senior Moody’s vice president, Kai Hu, said the likely stable profitability for Asian steelmakers that they rate is underpinned by the removal of excess steel production capacity in China and broadly steady demand in Asia as a whole.
Moody's said steel production capacity in China will continue to decline due to the Chinese government's supply-side reforms and environmental protection measures; factors which will reduce the supply glut in Asia.
Moody's explained China drives the outlook for steel companies in Asia, because the country represents the region's largest steel consumer, as well as producer.
"Overall steel demand in Asia will remain stable, with robust demand growth in South and Southeast Asia, and flat growth in China," Hu added.
Moody's report said the stable outlook for steelmakers in Asia also reflects China's purchasing managers' index, which remains above 50, indicating increased manufacturing activity; a situation which is positive for steel demand.
The report said a likely slowdown of contracted sales in China's property sector will have only a limited effect on overall demand and industry fundamentals over the next 12 months, because the strong contracted sales since 2016 will support new construction starts and steel demand over the next several quarters.
It said among major steel-producing Asian countries, operating conditions will be the most supportive in India, because of robust domestic demand and protectionist measures, and despite an increase in raw material prices and new capacity.
It said domestic demand will prove steady in Japan and Korea, which, together with the steelmakers' efforts to cut costs and increase production of premium products, should keep earnings for companies in these two markets higher, when compared with the levels seen in 2015-16.
He added through stringent rules and regulations on members, a total of 189,777 hectares of high conservation value (HCV) areas, equivalent to 250,000 football fields, are being managed.
“There are also emerging trends in Africa, where HCV areas have increased by 13,405 hectares, whereas Malaysia has seen a rise of about 8,399ha of HCV land.
“We have made significant progress in the last year, with RSPO-certified plantations covering a total of 3.2 million ha across 16 countries, which is a 14% increase since the last reporting period (July 1, 2016 to June 30, 2017),” Hu added.
Its latest report as at June 30, 2017 showed RSPO-certified smallholders rose to 139,123, from 109,415, with certified land up to 333,345ha, from 257,649ha a year ago.
Freight Management sees better performance in FY18
Emir Zainul/theedgemarkets.com
November 29, 2017 16:01 pm +08
SHAH ALAM (Nov 29): Freight Management Holdings Bhd, which posted a 5.8% year-on-year rise in net profit for the financial year ended June 30, 2017 (FY17), expects to perform better in FY18 on higher volume of freight handled.
Its managing director Chew Chong Keat said the multimodal freight and total logistics services provider is eyeing a 10% growth in net profit and volume in FY18, on the back of improving growth in global trade and increasing manufacturing activities in the country.
On the international front, it sees substantial growth from the Philippines, Indonesia and Vietnam markets.
"As global trade improves, it would be reflected in the demand from our customers who do the importing and exporting. So if their business improve, then there is a chance for us to also tap into the growth," he told reporters after the group's annual general meeting here today.
Freight Management's net profit rose to RM21.03 million in FY17 from RM19.87 million in FY16, while revenue increased 11.5% to RM461.3 million from RM413.77 million the previous year. It handled 113,200 TEUs (20-foot equivalent units) of containers in FY17.
Chew is confident there are still opportunities to grow within the freight segment because of the sheer volume of logistic needs that goes through Port Klang. Pointing to the group's volume of freight handled, Chew said more than 13 million TEUs pass through Port Klang per year.
"There is no such thing as saturation in the market where there are no more avenues to grow. There will always be customers who are looking for improvements in service. We just have to take advantage of our strength to gain market share," he said.
He noted that the sea freight segment will remain the core business of the group. "We have always been very strong in our sea freight segment, so it's only natural that we try to keep on building and growing this particular segment."
On the group's e-commerce segment under 65%-owned FM Hubwire Sdn Bhd, Chew said although there is opportunity to grow, but the loss-making segment remains a challenge as it is a relatively new space that the group is venturing in.
"We started this about a year already, but honestly the business has not really gained traction. We are exploring ways and means for us to boost this business. Although it may take a while, if we don't get involved now it will be too late for later. It is a challenge now, but we have the resources [to sustain it]," he said, hoping to see some traction gained next year and for the segment to become profitable by 2019.
At 2.26pm, Freight Management shares were traded down one sen or 0.83% at RM1.20, with 4,900 shares done, bringing a market capitalisation of RM223.38 million.
November 29, 2017 16:01 pm +08
SHAH ALAM (Nov 29): Freight Management Holdings Bhd, which posted a 5.8% year-on-year rise in net profit for the financial year ended June 30, 2017 (FY17), expects to perform better in FY18 on higher volume of freight handled.
Its managing director Chew Chong Keat said the multimodal freight and total logistics services provider is eyeing a 10% growth in net profit and volume in FY18, on the back of improving growth in global trade and increasing manufacturing activities in the country.
On the international front, it sees substantial growth from the Philippines, Indonesia and Vietnam markets.
"As global trade improves, it would be reflected in the demand from our customers who do the importing and exporting. So if their business improve, then there is a chance for us to also tap into the growth," he told reporters after the group's annual general meeting here today.
Freight Management's net profit rose to RM21.03 million in FY17 from RM19.87 million in FY16, while revenue increased 11.5% to RM461.3 million from RM413.77 million the previous year. It handled 113,200 TEUs (20-foot equivalent units) of containers in FY17.
Chew is confident there are still opportunities to grow within the freight segment because of the sheer volume of logistic needs that goes through Port Klang. Pointing to the group's volume of freight handled, Chew said more than 13 million TEUs pass through Port Klang per year.
"There is no such thing as saturation in the market where there are no more avenues to grow. There will always be customers who are looking for improvements in service. We just have to take advantage of our strength to gain market share," he said.
He noted that the sea freight segment will remain the core business of the group. "We have always been very strong in our sea freight segment, so it's only natural that we try to keep on building and growing this particular segment."
On the group's e-commerce segment under 65%-owned FM Hubwire Sdn Bhd, Chew said although there is opportunity to grow, but the loss-making segment remains a challenge as it is a relatively new space that the group is venturing in.
"We started this about a year already, but honestly the business has not really gained traction. We are exploring ways and means for us to boost this business. Although it may take a while, if we don't get involved now it will be too late for later. It is a challenge now, but we have the resources [to sustain it]," he said, hoping to see some traction gained next year and for the segment to become profitable by 2019.
At 2.26pm, Freight Management shares were traded down one sen or 0.83% at RM1.20, with 4,900 shares done, bringing a market capitalisation of RM223.38 million.
[转贴] 輕鬆學財報：基礎入門篇
巴菲特投資思想進階軌跡
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Wed, 29 Nov 2017, 10:05 AM
作者：價值ETF | 2017 / 11 / 29
文章來源：雪球 | 圖片來源：Haowei
巴菲特 (Warren Buffett) 的投資思想是一個不斷進化的投資系統
回顧巴菲特的成長歷程，你會發現，巴菲特的投資思想呈現了非常清晰的階段進化的軌跡。
對巴菲特投資思想發展階段的劃分，一般都是合夥公司階段為早期，控股波克夏 (Berkshire Hathaway) 後至八十年末為中期，九十年代後至今為後期。其劃分方法是根據公司的組織形式和經營模式，有一定道理，但嚴格從他個人投資思想的進化脈絡來看不夠準確。我個人的意見是這樣劃分的：
第一階段 (早期) 1949-1971 年 (19-41 歲) 。從年代看主要集中在五六十年代。投資風格是葛拉漢式的安全邊際法，被後人稱為“價值投資法”，巴菲特自己則戲稱為只買便宜貨的“雪茄煙蒂”投資法。
1949 年，巴菲特 19 歲那年，第一次閲讀葛拉漢 (Ben Graham) 的經典著作《智慧型股票投資人 (The Intelligent Investor) 》，立即被這本書迷住了。巴菲特的室友伍德說“它對巴菲特而言就像找到了上帝所在。”把這一年作為巴菲特投資思想形成早期的開端是完全有道理的。
1970 年 7 月 17 日，巴菲特在和葛拉漢的通信中寫道“在此之前，我一直是靠腺體而不是靠大腦進行投資。”巴菲特本人甚至把這次經歷比作“保羅走在通往大馬士革的路上”，並且他從中學到了“以 40 美分買 1 美元”的哲學。從此，“安全邊際”的哲學成為巴菲特投資思想的基石。
在這之後發生的幾件事，對巴菲特的進化都起到重要的推動作用：1950 年 (20 歲) 巴菲特在哥倫比亞大學研究生院正式“拜葛拉漢為師”；1954 (24 歲) 年巴菲特加盟葛拉漢—紐曼公司，為葛拉漢工作；1956 年 (26 歲) 成立第一家合夥公司，開始創業；1959 年和蒙格 (Charlie Munger) 開始相識相知，並在 60 年代開展了一系列的合作；1962 年巴菲特開始買入波克夏的股票，1963 年成為最大股東，並於 1965 (35 歲) 年巴菲特正式接管波克夏；1967 年 (37 歲) 巴菲特以 860 萬美元的價格為波克夏購買了國民補償金公司，第一次踏入保險業；1969 年 (39 歲) ，巴菲特解散了他的合夥企業，專心經營波克夏。
在合夥企業經營期間，巴菲特投資方法按特性先是分為三類，後來發展為四類。巴菲特在 1962 年 1 月份寫給合夥人的報告中將自己的投資方法分為三類：
第一類：Generals (低估類投資) 。是指那些價值被低估的股票。投資比例最大。
第二類：workouts (套利類投資) 。這類投資的價格更多取決於公司的經營管理決策而非買賣雙方的供求關係。影響投資價格的公司行為包括合併、清算、重組、分立等。與道瓊斯指數的表現無關。
第三類：Control 控制類投資。是指要麼控制了這家公司，要麼買入了相當多的股份，從而可以影響公司的經營管理決策。這類投資也與道瓊斯指數的表現沒什麼關係。
第一類和第三類可以互相轉化。如果買入的“Generals”的價格長期在低點徘徊，巴菲特就會考慮買進更多的股份，從而演變成“Control”；反之，如果“Control”的價格在購入幾年內迅速攀升，巴菲特通常考慮在高點獲利了結，從而完成一次漂亮的“Generals”類投資。
巴菲特在 1965 年 1 月份寫給合夥人的報告中，將原來的第一類投資 Generals一分為二：Generals-Priavate Owner Basis 和 Generals-Relatively Undervalued
Generals-Priavate Owner Basis 這是一類被低估的股票，規模較小，缺乏魅力，無人問津。而且其價格遠遠低於這家公司對一個私人股權投資人的價值 (內在價值) 。價格長期低估的話，可以轉化為 Control。
Generals-Relatively Undervalued 是指那些相對同類質地的公司的價格較低的股票。雖然價格低估，但通常規模較大，對私投資者意義不大，不能轉化為 Control。
早在 1964 年，巴菲特就注意到葛拉漢買進廉價股的策略存在價值實現的問題，並不完美，而且隨著股市的上漲這類投資機會越來越少。巴菲特在 1965 年 1 月的報告中增加的第四類投資 Generals-Relatively Undervalued 可視為一種新的探索。但尚處量變階段，並沒有完全突破葛拉漢的投資框架。該類投資的最佳案例就是，1964 年巴菲特利用“沙拉油醜聞”將合夥公司 40% 的資金投入到美國運通中，並持股長達 4 年，在隨後的 5 年時間裡，美國運通的股票上漲了 5 倍。
正如蒙格說的，在葛拉漢手下工作的經歷和巨額盈利讓巴菲特的大腦一度阻塞，很難擺脫如此成功的思維方式。
1969 年 (39 歲) 巴菲特讀到費舍的著作《普通股和不普通的利潤》得到了很大的啟發。而真正使巴菲特擺脫葛拉漢思想束縛、完成進化的是查理·蒙格。蒙格對一家優勢企業的價值有著敏鋭的觀察力，他使費舍的公司特質理論進一步具體化。“查理把我推向了另一個方向，而不是像葛拉漢那樣只建議購買便宜貨，這是他思想的力量，他拓展了我的視野。我以非同尋常的速度從猩猩進化到人類，否則我會比現在貧窮得多。”
總而言之，遭遇到價值實現的問題，巴菲特才認清葛拉漢“不論本質購買任何公司”的哲學的侷限性，開始將費舍和蒙格的傑出企業擴張價值理論整合進他的哲學中。
第二階段 (中期) 1972-1989 (42-59 歲) 。1972 年 1 月 3 日，巴菲特接受蒙格的建議，用 2500 萬美元收購了喜詩糖果 (See’s Candies) 公司，以此為開端，蒙格就不斷地推動著巴菲特向為質量付出代價的方向前進。
隨著喜詩公司的茁壯成長，巴菲特和蒙格都意識到“購買一個好企業並讓它自由發展要比購買一個虧損企業然後花費大量時間、精力和金錢去扶持它要容易且與快得多。”，這樣的投資思想的形成標誌著巴菲特“從猿進化成人”。
巴菲特把葛拉漢、費舍和蒙格的思想結合起來，逐步形成自己的風格。這個進化階段的劃分，可以從巴菲特和蒙格的原話得到佐證。 1997 年，蒙格在公司股東年會上說：“喜詩公司是我們第一次根據產品品質來收購的。”，巴菲特補充道：“如果我們沒有收購喜詩公司，我們就不會購買可口可樂公司股票” 。
這個階段巴菲特的投資方法的顯著特點是，減少套利操作和廉價股票的投資，增加優秀業控制，並利用保險浮存金進行優質企業普通股的長期投資：
第一階段巴菲特的投資思想和角色基本上是葛拉漢式的“私募基金經理”；第二階段，轉型為企業家和投資家的雙重角色的合二為一。他說“因為我把自己當成是個企業經營者，所以我成為更優秀的投資人；因為我把自己當成是投資人，所以我成為更優秀的企業經營者。”
這個階段可以用巴菲特 1985 年的一席話來概括：“我現在要比 20 年前更願意為好的行業和好的管理多支付一些錢。本傾向於單獨地看統計數據。而我越來越看重的，是那些無形的東西。”
第三階段 (後期) 1990 至今 (60 歲以來) 。即 90 年代以來。還可以有一種更加精確的劃分方法 — 1995 年 (65 歲) 至今為巴菲特後期。有蒙格的話為證：“過了 65 歲之後，華倫的投資技巧真是百尺竿頭，更進一步。”
進入 1990 年代後，波克夏的未來遇到更大的困難，用蒙格的話說：
1、我們的規模太大了，這將我們的投資選擇限制在被那些常聰明的人所檢驗過的更具競爭力的領域。
2、當前的環境令未來 15-20 年內的普通股與我們在過去 15-20 年內看到的股票將有很大的不同。
簡單地說，巴菲特面臨兩難境地：錢太多，機會太少。面對這樣的挑戰，隨著巴菲特的持續學習和滾雪球的威力，巴菲特的投資思想進化到更高的層次，投資技藝更加全面、更加爐火純青。這個階段巴菲特投資思想的進化表現在以下幾個方面：
1、“護城河”概念的提出。標誌著巴菲特評估企業長期競爭優勢和內在價值的藝術更加成熟。1993 年巴菲特在致股東信中首次提出了“護城河”概念。他說：“最近幾年可樂和吉列剃鬚刀在全球的市場份額實際上還在增加。他們的品牌威力。他們的產品特性，以及銷售實力，賦予他們一種巨大的競爭優勢，在他們的經濟堡壘周圍形成了一條護城河。相比之下，一般的公司在沒有這樣的保護之下奮戰。就像彼得·林區說的那樣，銷售相似商品的公司的股票，應當貼上這樣一條簽：‘競爭有害健康。’”
1995 年 5 月 1 日在波克夏的年度會議上，巴菲特對“護城河”的概唸作了仔細的描述：“奇妙的、由很深、很危險的護城河環繞的城堡。城堡的主人是一個誠實而高雅的人。城堡最主要的力量源泉是主人天才的大腦；護城河永久地充當著那些試圖襲擊城堡的敵人的障礙；城堡內的主人製造黃金，但並不都據為己有。粗略地轉譯一下就是，我們喜歡的是那些具有控制地位的大公司，這些公司的特許權很難被複製，具有極大或者說永久的持續運作能力。”
2000 年的股東大會上，巴菲特進一步解釋說“我們根據‘護城河’、它加寬的能力以及不可攻擊性作為判斷一家偉大企業的主要標準。而且我們告訴企業的管理層，我們希望企業的護城河每年都能不斷加寬。這並不是非要企業的利潤要一年比一年多，因為有時做不到。然而，如果企業的‘護城河’每年不斷地加寬，這家企業會經營得很好。”
2、投資戰略的轉變。一個轉變：“由於波克夏的資產迅速膨脹，以及會明顯影響我們業績的投資空間急劇收縮，使得我們必須做出精明的決策。因此我們採用了一種僅需要幾次精明 — 而不是過於精明 — 的戰略，事實上，每年有一個好主意對我們來說就夠了。”這意味著巴菲特採取更加集中持股的投資戰略。
另一個轉變：因為資本的體量越來越大，巴菲特的普通股投資更加專注於尋找在一個細分領域內價值低估的優秀或良好的大公司，實施選擇性反向投資策略，即在一傢俱有持久競爭優勢的大公司遭遇挫折、股價被目光短淺的市場壓低時給以積極關注。這意味著葛拉漢式的不論本質買便宜貨的模式不再適合大塊頭波克夏了。
3、“揮棒”概念的發展。美國超級擊球手威廉姆斯在所寫的《打擊科學》一書中解釋了自己的擊球技巧。它將擊球區分成 77 個單元，每個單元代表一個棒球，只有當球處在最好的單元時 (幸運區) ，他才會揮棒擊球，即使這樣做會面臨三振出局的風險，因為處在最差位置的球將嚴重降低他的成功率。
巴菲特將這一策略和投資作類比，發展了投資領域的“揮棒”概念。1995 年巴菲特在對南加州大學商學院學生的演講中，簡述了這個概念：“在投資時，沒有所謂的必須去擊打的好球。你可以站在擊球手的位置上，投球手可以投出好球；通用汽車投出 47 美元，你若缺乏足夠的資訊來決定是否在 47 美元的價位買進，你可以讓它從眼前流過，不會有人判給你一擊。因為只有揮棒落空時，你才可能被判出局。”
4、三類業務的區分。巴菲特在 2007 年的致股東信中對偉大 (卓越) 、優秀和可憎三類業務做了傳神劃分。
偉大的業務：擁有持久的“護城河”、回報率高而且不需要大量增加資本就可以實現利潤成長的業務，如喜詩糖果公司；優秀的業務：擁有持久的競爭優勢、回報率較高，但為實現成長而需要大量增加資本的業務，如飛行安全公司；可憎的業務：就是那些成長很快、為獲得成長必須提供大量資金，而利潤卻有限或者沒有產生利潤的業務，如航空業。
巴菲特通俗易懂地把這三類業務比喻為三種類型的“存款帳戶” — 偉大的帳戶會支付非常高的利息，且利息會隨著時間的推移而上升；優秀的帳戶會支付吸引人的利息，且只有當你增加存款的時候才能獲得這些利息；最後一種是可憎的帳戶，它所提供的利息並不充分，且要求你不斷增加資金以獲得那些讓人失望的回報。
5、跨國投資和收購的突破。巴菲特的首次跨國投資是 1991 年投資英國的酒精類飲料公司健力士；最有代表性的跨國投資則是 2003 年投資中石油近 5 億美元；最有代表性的跨國收購則是 2006 年以 40 億美元購買以色列伊斯卡爾金屬製品公司 80% 的股份，這是巴菲特在美國以外進行的最大一筆投資交易，也是以色列歷史上來自海外的最大一筆投資。
前幾年巴菲特在韓國股市也實施了非常漂亮的跨國投資。他簡單瀏覽了投行提供的投資手冊，發現有些財務健全的公司，本益比只有 3 倍，他就挑選了大約 20 檔股票買進，等這些股票上漲五六倍、接近其內在價值時賣出。
6、非常規投資更加多樣化。鼓鼓囊囊的錢包，迫使巴菲特在非常規投資又有了新的突破和發展。在 1991 年透過私募的方式投資了三億美元的美國運通俗稱“Percs”的股票，在投資的前三年可以領取一筆特別的股利，在 1994 年八月以前轉換成普通股；1994-1995 年建立了 4570 萬桶倉位的石油的衍生合約；1997 年購買了 1.112 億盎司的白銀；1997 年購買了 46 億美元以帳面攤銷的長期美國零息債券；2002年首度進入外匯市場投資，截至 2004 年底總計持有 214 億美元的外匯部位，投資組合遍佈十二種外幣；同時於同年涉足以歐元為單位垃圾債券市場，至 2006 年總值達 10 億美元；此外巴菲特還進行固定收入套利，並持有其他衍生品合約，這些合約可分為兩大類：Credit Default Swaps (CDS，信用違約掉期合約)、賣出長期的股票指數看跌期權。
值得注意的是，放棄外匯的投資，收購海外公司，是巴菲特不願持有太多美元資產及現金的最新投資策略。正如巴菲特指出，波克夏的主要基地仍在美國，但為了防範美匯繼續下挫，收購海外優質企業，有一舉兩得之效。
總之，後期的巴菲特，思想更加開放，技術更加全面。在常規投資的選擇技巧上更加爐火純青，更加集中投資，而且開始加大了海外投資和併購的力度；在非常規投資上則更加多樣化，更富進攻性。當專家學者把大師的經典策略總結成教條時，大師又進化了。
巴菲特的投資思想是一個開放式的投資系統
巴菲特投資思想是一個開放式的體系，不斷博採眾家之長，為我所用。不僅向其他投資流派、投資行家學習，而且向各個領域、各個學科的高手學習，在生命的每個細節中學習。這也是巴菲特投資思想得以不斷進化的主要原因。
巴菲特說：“如果我只學習葛拉漢一個人的思想，就不會像今天這麼富有。”
蒙格認為巴菲特的成功是多種因素合力的結果，但是具有決定性的因素是持續學習的結果。他在 2007 年威斯科年度股東大會上指出：“華倫是這個世界上最佳的持續學習機器。烏龜最終戰勝兔子是持續努力的結果，一旦你停止了學習，整個世界將從你身旁呼嘯而過。
華倫很幸運，直到今天，即便是早已過了退休的年齡，他仍可以有效地學習，持續地改善其技巧。華倫的投資技巧在 65 歲後更是百尺竿頭更上一層。作為一直從旁默默關注的我，可以肯定地說，如果華倫停留在其早期的認識水平上，這個紀錄也就不過如此了。”
讓我們看看巴菲特從其他投資大師吸取了哪些營養：
此外，巴菲特還從威廉姆斯的擊球技巧，發展了投資領域的“揮棒”概念，他說：“我的工作就是等待輕鬆擊球的機會。”；從韋恩·格蘭斯基的忠告“到冰球要去的地方，而不是它現在呆的地方。”體會到專注於當期收益和短期收益是愚蠢的；從伊索寓言中學到了“一鳥在手勝過二鳥在林”的灌木叢理論，甚至從一個球僮的成功故事發展了“與贏家共事”的經營哲學和投資哲學。
葉問教導李小龍說：“習武的關鍵在於習心。只有心智敏鋭才能從萬事萬物中參悟武道。”
同樣，理財的關鍵也在於理心。只有心智敏鋭才能從萬事萬物中參悟股道。巴菲特博覽群書、廣泛學習，蒙格的思維格柵理論都是同樣道理。
我們務必永遠保持謙卑，敞開胸懷，海納百川，持續學習，思維格柵，不斷豐富、完善自己的投資體系，讓自己處在不斷的進化狀態中，永不停息。
巴菲特的投資方法可劃分為常規投資和非常規投資兩大部分
為了便於全面理解巴菲特的投資方法，避免大家把巴菲特的經典投資策略等同於巴菲特投資策略的全部，可以把巴菲特的投資方法劃分為常規投資和非常規投資或者傳統投資和非傳統投資兩部分。下面根據巴菲特後期的投資思想進行劃分：
(一) 常規投資
(二) 非常規投資
從這個劃分大家可以看到，這才是巴菲特投資系統的全貌。但通常認為巴菲特的投資只包括常規投資的前兩項或前三項，這是片面的。巴菲特是技術全面的投資大師。
https://www.stockfeel.com.tw/%e5%b7%b4%e8%8f%b2%e7%89%b9%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e6%80%9d%e6%83%b3%e9%80%b2%e9%9a%8e%e8%bb%8c%e8%b7%a1/
作者：價值ETF | 2017 / 11 / 29
文章來源：雪球 | 圖片來源：Haowei
巴菲特 (Warren Buffett) 的投資思想是一個不斷進化的投資系統
回顧巴菲特的成長歷程，你會發現，巴菲特的投資思想呈現了非常清晰的階段進化的軌跡。
對巴菲特投資思想發展階段的劃分，一般都是合夥公司階段為早期，控股波克夏 (Berkshire Hathaway) 後至八十年末為中期，九十年代後至今為後期。其劃分方法是根據公司的組織形式和經營模式，有一定道理，但嚴格從他個人投資思想的進化脈絡來看不夠準確。我個人的意見是這樣劃分的：
第一階段 (早期) 1949-1971 年 (19-41 歲) 。從年代看主要集中在五六十年代。投資風格是葛拉漢式的安全邊際法，被後人稱為“價值投資法”，巴菲特自己則戲稱為只買便宜貨的“雪茄煙蒂”投資法。
1949 年，巴菲特 19 歲那年，第一次閲讀葛拉漢 (Ben Graham) 的經典著作《智慧型股票投資人 (The Intelligent Investor) 》，立即被這本書迷住了。巴菲特的室友伍德說“它對巴菲特而言就像找到了上帝所在。”把這一年作為巴菲特投資思想形成早期的開端是完全有道理的。
1970 年 7 月 17 日，巴菲特在和葛拉漢的通信中寫道“在此之前，我一直是靠腺體而不是靠大腦進行投資。”巴菲特本人甚至把這次經歷比作“保羅走在通往大馬士革的路上”，並且他從中學到了“以 40 美分買 1 美元”的哲學。從此，“安全邊際”的哲學成為巴菲特投資思想的基石。
在這之後發生的幾件事，對巴菲特的進化都起到重要的推動作用：1950 年 (20 歲) 巴菲特在哥倫比亞大學研究生院正式“拜葛拉漢為師”；1954 (24 歲) 年巴菲特加盟葛拉漢—紐曼公司，為葛拉漢工作；1956 年 (26 歲) 成立第一家合夥公司，開始創業；1959 年和蒙格 (Charlie Munger) 開始相識相知，並在 60 年代開展了一系列的合作；1962 年巴菲特開始買入波克夏的股票，1963 年成為最大股東，並於 1965 (35 歲) 年巴菲特正式接管波克夏；1967 年 (37 歲) 巴菲特以 860 萬美元的價格為波克夏購買了國民補償金公司，第一次踏入保險業；1969 年 (39 歲) ，巴菲特解散了他的合夥企業，專心經營波克夏。
在合夥企業經營期間，巴菲特投資方法按特性先是分為三類，後來發展為四類。巴菲特在 1962 年 1 月份寫給合夥人的報告中將自己的投資方法分為三類：
第一類：Generals (低估類投資) 。是指那些價值被低估的股票。投資比例最大。
第二類：workouts (套利類投資) 。這類投資的價格更多取決於公司的經營管理決策而非買賣雙方的供求關係。影響投資價格的公司行為包括合併、清算、重組、分立等。與道瓊斯指數的表現無關。
第三類：Control 控制類投資。是指要麼控制了這家公司，要麼買入了相當多的股份，從而可以影響公司的經營管理決策。這類投資也與道瓊斯指數的表現沒什麼關係。
第一類和第三類可以互相轉化。如果買入的“Generals”的價格長期在低點徘徊，巴菲特就會考慮買進更多的股份，從而演變成“Control”；反之，如果“Control”的價格在購入幾年內迅速攀升，巴菲特通常考慮在高點獲利了結，從而完成一次漂亮的“Generals”類投資。
巴菲特在 1965 年 1 月份寫給合夥人的報告中，將原來的第一類投資 Generals一分為二：Generals-Priavate Owner Basis 和 Generals-Relatively Undervalued
Generals-Priavate Owner Basis 這是一類被低估的股票，規模較小，缺乏魅力，無人問津。而且其價格遠遠低於這家公司對一個私人股權投資人的價值 (內在價值) 。價格長期低估的話，可以轉化為 Control。
Generals-Relatively Undervalued 是指那些相對同類質地的公司的價格較低的股票。雖然價格低估，但通常規模較大，對私投資者意義不大，不能轉化為 Control。
早在 1964 年，巴菲特就注意到葛拉漢買進廉價股的策略存在價值實現的問題，並不完美，而且隨著股市的上漲這類投資機會越來越少。巴菲特在 1965 年 1 月的報告中增加的第四類投資 Generals-Relatively Undervalued 可視為一種新的探索。但尚處量變階段，並沒有完全突破葛拉漢的投資框架。該類投資的最佳案例就是，1964 年巴菲特利用“沙拉油醜聞”將合夥公司 40% 的資金投入到美國運通中，並持股長達 4 年，在隨後的 5 年時間裡，美國運通的股票上漲了 5 倍。
正如蒙格說的，在葛拉漢手下工作的經歷和巨額盈利讓巴菲特的大腦一度阻塞，很難擺脫如此成功的思維方式。
1969 年 (39 歲) 巴菲特讀到費舍的著作《普通股和不普通的利潤》得到了很大的啟發。而真正使巴菲特擺脫葛拉漢思想束縛、完成進化的是查理·蒙格。蒙格對一家優勢企業的價值有著敏鋭的觀察力，他使費舍的公司特質理論進一步具體化。“查理把我推向了另一個方向，而不是像葛拉漢那樣只建議購買便宜貨，這是他思想的力量，他拓展了我的視野。我以非同尋常的速度從猩猩進化到人類，否則我會比現在貧窮得多。”
總而言之，遭遇到價值實現的問題，巴菲特才認清葛拉漢“不論本質購買任何公司”的哲學的侷限性，開始將費舍和蒙格的傑出企業擴張價值理論整合進他的哲學中。
第二階段 (中期) 1972-1989 (42-59 歲) 。1972 年 1 月 3 日，巴菲特接受蒙格的建議，用 2500 萬美元收購了喜詩糖果 (See’s Candies) 公司，以此為開端，蒙格就不斷地推動著巴菲特向為質量付出代價的方向前進。
隨著喜詩公司的茁壯成長，巴菲特和蒙格都意識到“購買一個好企業並讓它自由發展要比購買一個虧損企業然後花費大量時間、精力和金錢去扶持它要容易且與快得多。”，這樣的投資思想的形成標誌著巴菲特“從猿進化成人”。
巴菲特把葛拉漢、費舍和蒙格的思想結合起來，逐步形成自己的風格。這個進化階段的劃分，可以從巴菲特和蒙格的原話得到佐證。 1997 年，蒙格在公司股東年會上說：“喜詩公司是我們第一次根據產品品質來收購的。”，巴菲特補充道：“如果我們沒有收購喜詩公司，我們就不會購買可口可樂公司股票” 。
這個階段巴菲特的投資方法的顯著特點是，減少套利操作和廉價股票的投資，增加優秀業控制，並利用保險浮存金進行優質企業普通股的長期投資：
- 優秀企業的併購和永久持有：如喜詩公司、內部拉斯加傢俱店
- 少數“必然如此”的偉大企業普通股的永久持有：如華盛頓郵報、蓋可保險、可口可樂等；
- 部分“可能性高”的優秀企業普通股的長期投資。
- 中期固定收益證券
- 長期固定收益證券
- 現金等價物；
- 短期套利；
- 可轉換優先股；
- 垃圾債券。
第一階段巴菲特的投資思想和角色基本上是葛拉漢式的“私募基金經理”；第二階段，轉型為企業家和投資家的雙重角色的合二為一。他說“因為我把自己當成是個企業經營者，所以我成為更優秀的投資人；因為我把自己當成是投資人，所以我成為更優秀的企業經營者。”
這個階段可以用巴菲特 1985 年的一席話來概括：“我現在要比 20 年前更願意為好的行業和好的管理多支付一些錢。本傾向於單獨地看統計數據。而我越來越看重的，是那些無形的東西。”
第三階段 (後期) 1990 至今 (60 歲以來) 。即 90 年代以來。還可以有一種更加精確的劃分方法 — 1995 年 (65 歲) 至今為巴菲特後期。有蒙格的話為證：“過了 65 歲之後，華倫的投資技巧真是百尺竿頭，更進一步。”
進入 1990 年代後，波克夏的未來遇到更大的困難，用蒙格的話說：
1、我們的規模太大了，這將我們的投資選擇限制在被那些常聰明的人所檢驗過的更具競爭力的領域。
2、當前的環境令未來 15-20 年內的普通股與我們在過去 15-20 年內看到的股票將有很大的不同。
簡單地說，巴菲特面臨兩難境地：錢太多，機會太少。面對這樣的挑戰，隨著巴菲特的持續學習和滾雪球的威力，巴菲特的投資思想進化到更高的層次，投資技藝更加全面、更加爐火純青。這個階段巴菲特投資思想的進化表現在以下幾個方面：
1、“護城河”概念的提出。標誌著巴菲特評估企業長期競爭優勢和內在價值的藝術更加成熟。1993 年巴菲特在致股東信中首次提出了“護城河”概念。他說：“最近幾年可樂和吉列剃鬚刀在全球的市場份額實際上還在增加。他們的品牌威力。他們的產品特性，以及銷售實力，賦予他們一種巨大的競爭優勢，在他們的經濟堡壘周圍形成了一條護城河。相比之下，一般的公司在沒有這樣的保護之下奮戰。就像彼得·林區說的那樣，銷售相似商品的公司的股票，應當貼上這樣一條簽：‘競爭有害健康。’”
1995 年 5 月 1 日在波克夏的年度會議上，巴菲特對“護城河”的概唸作了仔細的描述：“奇妙的、由很深、很危險的護城河環繞的城堡。城堡的主人是一個誠實而高雅的人。城堡最主要的力量源泉是主人天才的大腦；護城河永久地充當著那些試圖襲擊城堡的敵人的障礙；城堡內的主人製造黃金，但並不都據為己有。粗略地轉譯一下就是，我們喜歡的是那些具有控制地位的大公司，這些公司的特許權很難被複製，具有極大或者說永久的持續運作能力。”
2000 年的股東大會上，巴菲特進一步解釋說“我們根據‘護城河’、它加寬的能力以及不可攻擊性作為判斷一家偉大企業的主要標準。而且我們告訴企業的管理層，我們希望企業的護城河每年都能不斷加寬。這並不是非要企業的利潤要一年比一年多，因為有時做不到。然而，如果企業的‘護城河’每年不斷地加寬，這家企業會經營得很好。”
2、投資戰略的轉變。一個轉變：“由於波克夏的資產迅速膨脹，以及會明顯影響我們業績的投資空間急劇收縮，使得我們必須做出精明的決策。因此我們採用了一種僅需要幾次精明 — 而不是過於精明 — 的戰略，事實上，每年有一個好主意對我們來說就夠了。”這意味著巴菲特採取更加集中持股的投資戰略。
另一個轉變：因為資本的體量越來越大，巴菲特的普通股投資更加專注於尋找在一個細分領域內價值低估的優秀或良好的大公司，實施選擇性反向投資策略，即在一傢俱有持久競爭優勢的大公司遭遇挫折、股價被目光短淺的市場壓低時給以積極關注。這意味著葛拉漢式的不論本質買便宜貨的模式不再適合大塊頭波克夏了。
3、“揮棒”概念的發展。美國超級擊球手威廉姆斯在所寫的《打擊科學》一書中解釋了自己的擊球技巧。它將擊球區分成 77 個單元，每個單元代表一個棒球，只有當球處在最好的單元時 (幸運區) ，他才會揮棒擊球，即使這樣做會面臨三振出局的風險，因為處在最差位置的球將嚴重降低他的成功率。
巴菲特將這一策略和投資作類比，發展了投資領域的“揮棒”概念。1995 年巴菲特在對南加州大學商學院學生的演講中，簡述了這個概念：“在投資時，沒有所謂的必須去擊打的好球。你可以站在擊球手的位置上，投球手可以投出好球；通用汽車投出 47 美元，你若缺乏足夠的資訊來決定是否在 47 美元的價位買進，你可以讓它從眼前流過，不會有人判給你一擊。因為只有揮棒落空時，你才可能被判出局。”
4、三類業務的區分。巴菲特在 2007 年的致股東信中對偉大 (卓越) 、優秀和可憎三類業務做了傳神劃分。
偉大的業務：擁有持久的“護城河”、回報率高而且不需要大量增加資本就可以實現利潤成長的業務，如喜詩糖果公司；優秀的業務：擁有持久的競爭優勢、回報率較高，但為實現成長而需要大量增加資本的業務，如飛行安全公司；可憎的業務：就是那些成長很快、為獲得成長必須提供大量資金，而利潤卻有限或者沒有產生利潤的業務，如航空業。
巴菲特通俗易懂地把這三類業務比喻為三種類型的“存款帳戶” — 偉大的帳戶會支付非常高的利息，且利息會隨著時間的推移而上升；優秀的帳戶會支付吸引人的利息，且只有當你增加存款的時候才能獲得這些利息；最後一種是可憎的帳戶，它所提供的利息並不充分，且要求你不斷增加資金以獲得那些讓人失望的回報。
5、跨國投資和收購的突破。巴菲特的首次跨國投資是 1991 年投資英國的酒精類飲料公司健力士；最有代表性的跨國投資則是 2003 年投資中石油近 5 億美元；最有代表性的跨國收購則是 2006 年以 40 億美元購買以色列伊斯卡爾金屬製品公司 80% 的股份，這是巴菲特在美國以外進行的最大一筆投資交易，也是以色列歷史上來自海外的最大一筆投資。
前幾年巴菲特在韓國股市也實施了非常漂亮的跨國投資。他簡單瀏覽了投行提供的投資手冊，發現有些財務健全的公司，本益比只有 3 倍，他就挑選了大約 20 檔股票買進，等這些股票上漲五六倍、接近其內在價值時賣出。
6、非常規投資更加多樣化。鼓鼓囊囊的錢包，迫使巴菲特在非常規投資又有了新的突破和發展。在 1991 年透過私募的方式投資了三億美元的美國運通俗稱“Percs”的股票，在投資的前三年可以領取一筆特別的股利，在 1994 年八月以前轉換成普通股；1994-1995 年建立了 4570 萬桶倉位的石油的衍生合約；1997 年購買了 1.112 億盎司的白銀；1997 年購買了 46 億美元以帳面攤銷的長期美國零息債券；2002年首度進入外匯市場投資，截至 2004 年底總計持有 214 億美元的外匯部位，投資組合遍佈十二種外幣；同時於同年涉足以歐元為單位垃圾債券市場，至 2006 年總值達 10 億美元；此外巴菲特還進行固定收入套利，並持有其他衍生品合約，這些合約可分為兩大類：Credit Default Swaps (CDS，信用違約掉期合約)、賣出長期的股票指數看跌期權。
值得注意的是，放棄外匯的投資，收購海外公司，是巴菲特不願持有太多美元資產及現金的最新投資策略。正如巴菲特指出，波克夏的主要基地仍在美國，但為了防範美匯繼續下挫，收購海外優質企業，有一舉兩得之效。
總之，後期的巴菲特，思想更加開放，技術更加全面。在常規投資的選擇技巧上更加爐火純青，更加集中投資，而且開始加大了海外投資和併購的力度；在非常規投資上則更加多樣化，更富進攻性。當專家學者把大師的經典策略總結成教條時，大師又進化了。
巴菲特的投資思想是一個開放式的投資系統
巴菲特投資思想是一個開放式的體系，不斷博採眾家之長，為我所用。不僅向其他投資流派、投資行家學習，而且向各個領域、各個學科的高手學習，在生命的每個細節中學習。這也是巴菲特投資思想得以不斷進化的主要原因。
巴菲特說：“如果我只學習葛拉漢一個人的思想，就不會像今天這麼富有。”
蒙格認為巴菲特的成功是多種因素合力的結果，但是具有決定性的因素是持續學習的結果。他在 2007 年威斯科年度股東大會上指出：“華倫是這個世界上最佳的持續學習機器。烏龜最終戰勝兔子是持續努力的結果，一旦你停止了學習，整個世界將從你身旁呼嘯而過。
華倫很幸運，直到今天，即便是早已過了退休的年齡，他仍可以有效地學習，持續地改善其技巧。華倫的投資技巧在 65 歲後更是百尺竿頭更上一層。作為一直從旁默默關注的我，可以肯定地說，如果華倫停留在其早期的認識水平上，這個紀錄也就不過如此了。”
讓我們看看巴菲特從其他投資大師吸取了哪些營養：
- 葛拉漢的三個基本思想觀點：你應當把股票看作許多細小的商業部分。要把 (市場) 波動看作你的朋友而非敵人 — 利潤有時來自對朋友的愚忠而非參與市場的波動。《智慧型股票投資人》的最後一章中，葛拉漢道出了有關投資的最為重要的幾個字眼：“安全邊際。”
- 費舍的“只有最優異的企業經營與遠景是唯一值得投資的商業價值”和“沒有一個時間適合將最優秀企業脫手”的理論。
- 蒙格的聚焦高品質企業投資和格柵理論；
- 彭博的“消費獨占企業”是最佳投資價值的理論；
- 威廉姆斯的投資價值理論：今天任何股票、債券或公司的價值，取決於在資產的整個剩餘使用壽命期間預期能夠產生的、以適當的利率貼現的現金流入和流出。
- 凱因斯 (John Keynes) 的集中投資理論和“我寧願模糊地正確，而不是精確地錯誤。”的思想；
- 史密斯的保留盈餘是企業的附加價值思想。
- 彼得林區 (Peter Lynch) 的過早賣出表現良好的傑出公司股份是“拔苗助長”以及在公司表現良好時忙於拋售股票，兌現盈利，卻死抱著令人失望的公司的人是在“剷除鮮花，澆灌雜草”的思想。
此外，巴菲特還從威廉姆斯的擊球技巧，發展了投資領域的“揮棒”概念，他說：“我的工作就是等待輕鬆擊球的機會。”；從韋恩·格蘭斯基的忠告“到冰球要去的地方，而不是它現在呆的地方。”體會到專注於當期收益和短期收益是愚蠢的；從伊索寓言中學到了“一鳥在手勝過二鳥在林”的灌木叢理論，甚至從一個球僮的成功故事發展了“與贏家共事”的經營哲學和投資哲學。
葉問教導李小龍說：“習武的關鍵在於習心。只有心智敏鋭才能從萬事萬物中參悟武道。”
同樣，理財的關鍵也在於理心。只有心智敏鋭才能從萬事萬物中參悟股道。巴菲特博覽群書、廣泛學習，蒙格的思維格柵理論都是同樣道理。
我們務必永遠保持謙卑，敞開胸懷，海納百川，持續學習，思維格柵，不斷豐富、完善自己的投資體系，讓自己處在不斷的進化狀態中，永不停息。
巴菲特的投資方法可劃分為常規投資和非常規投資兩大部分
為了便於全面理解巴菲特的投資方法，避免大家把巴菲特的經典投資策略等同於巴菲特投資策略的全部，可以把巴菲特的投資方法劃分為常規投資和非常規投資或者傳統投資和非傳統投資兩部分。下面根據巴菲特後期的投資思想進行劃分：
(一) 常規投資
- 優秀企業的併購和永久持有；
- 少數“必然如此”的偉大企業普通股的永久持有；
- 部分“可能性高”的優秀企業普通股的長期投資；
- 中期固定收益證券
- 長期固定收益證券
- 現金等價物；
(二) 非常規投資
- 廉價股的階段性持有；即巴菲特合夥公司期間所謂的 Generals。是巴菲特早年的傳統投資，我把他作為巴菲特晚年的非傳統投資。巴菲特前幾年在韓國股市的投資經歷，重溫了這一投資方法，yesterday once more。
- 短期套利；主要是巴菲特所謂的 workouts，併購套利；此外還包括固定收入套利等；
- 可轉債；
- 可轉換優先股；
- 認股權證；
- 垃圾債券；
- 長期零息債；
- 商品期貨；包括石油期貨和白銀期貨；
- 外匯期權；
- 衍生品合約。包括 CDS 和賣出長期的股票指數看跌期權。
從這個劃分大家可以看到，這才是巴菲特投資系統的全貌。但通常認為巴菲特的投資只包括常規投資的前兩項或前三項，這是片面的。巴菲特是技術全面的投資大師。
https://www.stockfeel.com.tw/%e5%b7%b4%e8%8f%b2%e7%89%b9%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e6%80%9d%e6%83%b3%e9%80%b2%e9%9a%8e%e8%bb%8c%e8%b7%a1/
[转贴] 钢铁第8报告:回顾Q3展望Q4 (2017) - Leo Ting
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Wed, 29 Nov 2017, 10:03 AM
Tuesday, 28 November 2017
4支长钢股的业绩全部出炉，
适逢大市不佳，
不然它们的股价早就该上层楼。
Q3业绩出炉但是这是两个月前的成绩了，
所以，只能回顾然后展望未来，
因为股价是看未来，过去都只是参考罢了。
以PBT/REVENUE 来说，ANNJOO依然最佳。
其它三家接近6%。
只看REVENUE， 那SSTEEL实在太好了，
所以PBT最高。
MASTEEL的REVENUE也是出乎意料的好，
狮子则表现得可圈可点，
等待现有的两个厂火力全开，
抢夺市场份额。
2017年前3季，
4家长钢商的总生意额是69.9亿。
净利(PAT) 3.94亿。
预计全年4家的总生意额可以达到95亿。
如果它们可以达到总生意额100亿，
那它们就有望赚到接近6亿的净利。
(Source: http://www.annjoo.com.my/investor-relations/latest-news/)
2017年Q3的ASP 大约是RM2324/MT，
这是因为7月开始只有RM2000/MT，
到9月尾去到最高2650/MT，
中间平均值是2325。
来到10月头，从高位2650/MT，
一度跌到RM2300/MT，
然后11月回稳涨到11月尾的2400/MT。
而中国现在长钢平均价比天高(RM2850/MT)，
所以大马长钢会继续上扬，
最少会回到2500-2600之间。
所以，估计大马长钢Q4三个月
的ASP应该可以去到2450。
考虑到下跌的铁砂和煤，
跌了少许的废铁，
外加马币走强因素，
可以节省少许马币支付美元，
Q4长钢商的PROFIT MARGIN会更好。
至于说房地产很差，会打击长钢业的说法。
基本不能成立，房地产好的话，
那现在4家长钢商的营业额应该至少120亿。
最后，大马经济的确不太好，
交出这样的业绩已
经是很了不起了。
只要中国的长钢进口到大马进一步的减少，
那4家长钢商的生意将继续获得保证。
(完)
Posted by Leo Ting at 07:24
http://leoting81.blogspot.my/2017/11/8q3q4-2017.html
Tuesday, 28 November 2017
4支长钢股的业绩全部出炉，
适逢大市不佳，
不然它们的股价早就该上层楼。
Q3业绩出炉但是这是两个月前的成绩了，
所以，只能回顾然后展望未来，
因为股价是看未来，过去都只是参考罢了。
以PBT/REVENUE 来说，ANNJOO依然最佳。
其它三家接近6%。
只看REVENUE， 那SSTEEL实在太好了，
所以PBT最高。
MASTEEL的REVENUE也是出乎意料的好，
狮子则表现得可圈可点，
等待现有的两个厂火力全开，
抢夺市场份额。
2017年前3季，
4家长钢商的总生意额是69.9亿。
净利(PAT) 3.94亿。
预计全年4家的总生意额可以达到95亿。
如果它们可以达到总生意额100亿，
那它们就有望赚到接近6亿的净利。
(Source: http://www.annjoo.com.my/investor-relations/latest-news/)
2017年Q3的ASP 大约是RM2324/MT，
这是因为7月开始只有RM2000/MT，
到9月尾去到最高2650/MT，
中间平均值是2325。
来到10月头，从高位2650/MT，
一度跌到RM2300/MT，
然后11月回稳涨到11月尾的2400/MT。
而中国现在长钢平均价比天高(RM2850/MT)，
所以大马长钢会继续上扬，
最少会回到2500-2600之间。
所以，估计大马长钢Q4三个月
的ASP应该可以去到2450。
考虑到下跌的铁砂和煤，
跌了少许的废铁，
外加马币走强因素，
可以节省少许马币支付美元，
Q4长钢商的PROFIT MARGIN会更好。
至于说房地产很差，会打击长钢业的说法。
基本不能成立，房地产好的话，
那现在4家长钢商的营业额应该至少120亿。
最后，大马经济的确不太好，
交出这样的业绩已
经是很了不起了。
只要中国的长钢进口到大马进一步的减少，
那4家长钢商的生意将继续获得保证。
(完)
Posted by Leo Ting at 07:24
http://leoting81.blogspot.my/2017/11/8q3q4-2017.html
入选清真股．英大建筑潜能佳
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Wed, 29 Nov 2017, 11:01 AM
2017-11-29 09:18
（吉隆坡28日讯）乐天交易指出，英大建筑（INTA，0192，创业板建筑）入选清真股，且具有升级至主要板的潜能，这可能引来投资者的购兴。
乐天交易看好该公司2018财政年每股盈利成长率可达双位数。截至9月30日为止，建筑订单保持6亿3500万令吉，将陆续在2019年完成。
“管理层预测订单可在明年增至8亿令吉。”
该公司也正积极竞标可负担房屋等超过20亿令吉的建筑项目。
该公司的净赚幅强稳，约为5%左右，负债比可减至0.3倍。
乐天交易以最接近同业的财政年2倍本益比为准，给予英大建筑39仙目标价，评级为“买进”。
文章来源：星洲日报‧财经‧2017.11.29
http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1705761/入选清真股．英大建筑潜能佳
2017-11-29 09:18
（吉隆坡28日讯）乐天交易指出，英大建筑（INTA，0192，创业板建筑）入选清真股，且具有升级至主要板的潜能，这可能引来投资者的购兴。
乐天交易看好该公司2018财政年每股盈利成长率可达双位数。截至9月30日为止，建筑订单保持6亿3500万令吉，将陆续在2019年完成。
“管理层预测订单可在明年增至8亿令吉。”
该公司也正积极竞标可负担房屋等超过20亿令吉的建筑项目。
该公司的净赚幅强稳，约为5%左右，负债比可减至0.3倍。
乐天交易以最接近同业的财政年2倍本益比为准，给予英大建筑39仙目标价，评级为“买进”。
文章来源：星洲日报‧财经‧2017.11.29
http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1705761/入选清真股．英大建筑潜能佳
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