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Monday, July 31, 2017

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BOILERMECH - On Track Towards First Profit Growth in Two Years

Author:   |    Publish date: 


  • Maintain HOLD on Boilermech Holdings with an unchanged fair value of RM1.02/share. Our fair value is based on a FY3/19F PE of 20x, which is the group's average PE in the past four years.
  • We believe that there would be renewed interest in orders for boilers as the plantation industry is slowly stepping up its capex cycle. Industry CPO production is rebounding while at the same time, CPO prices have been resilient.
  • Boilermech is poised to benefit if plantation companies build more palm oil mills. This is due to the group's proven track record and wide range of boilers. Boilermech's market shares are estimated at 50% to 60% in Malaysia and 25% to 30% in Indonesia. It is the second largest boiler manufacturer in Indonesia.
  • As such, we reckon that Boilermech is on track towards recording its first net profit growth in two years. We forecast Boilermech's net profit to improve by 7.7% in FY18F mainly on the back of a 5% increase in the revenue of the bioenergy division. The unit carries out the construction and commissioning of boilers.
  • We think that gross profit margin would be stable at 23.8% in FY18F vs. 23.0% in FY17. Any increase in steel costs would be reflected in the pricing before Boilermech signs the contracts with its customers.
  • As for the water treatment and biogas unit, we have assumed that revenue would increase by 5% in FY18F. We reckon that water treatment and biogas would be growth areas in the long term due to the rising pressure that palm oil mills should be environmentally friendly.
  • We forecast gross DPS at 1.5 sen in FY18F, which is the same as FY17. Dividend payout is expected to be 31.1% in FY18F compared with 33.5% in FY17.
  • Balance sheet is healthy. Net cash is estimated to exceed RM83.5mil in FY18F vs. RM56.4mil as at end-FY17. Free cash flow is expected to be 6.6 sen per share in FY18F compared with 11.6 sen in FY17.
Source: AmInvest Research - 31 Jul 2017

[转贴] 他被郭台铭开除 却让跟随员工创业买房

Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Sun, 30 Jul 2017, 09:53 PM
2017年7月30日



谢冠宏当年因为一次请假乌龙事件,被鸿海集团董事长郭台铭一通电话开除。(网络图)

(台北30日讯)4个富士康主管出走,在中国创立万魔耳机品牌,短短时间耳机累计销售量达4000万条,不仅是中国最大耳机品牌,也跨足海外插旗美国,万魔今年年营收远突破30亿元,今年也首度对资深员工发出股票分红,“多可以买套房,少则首付没问题”,这家企业正积极向台湾年轻人招手,要组队抢声学智能化商机。

曾经在鸿海富士康集团登上最年轻事业群总经理的谢冠宏,2012年底因为一次请假乌龙事件,被鸿海集团董事长郭台铭一通电话开除,3个富士康属下追随他,2013年创了加一联创(1More)做耳机,并在2015年推自有品牌,并更名为万魔声学,短短时间,万魔耳机已经成为中国最大原创耳机品牌。

于世璇在富士康时曾任郭台铭特助,也是谢冠宏的部属,担任SMDH(新绿数事业群)处长,而林柏青则是副处长,当谢冠宏发生“乌龙事件”去职后,于世璇说,他跟林柏青的共识是:谢冠宏走了,就没什么好玩的了。因为SMDH是富士康中开放度最高的单位,谢冠宏肯给创意空间,所以吸引两人跟随创业,章调占也在半年后加入。



万魔声学执行长谢冠宏(右)近日于中国举行新品发表会,身为股东的艺人周杰伦(左)特别出席站台。(网络图)

比富士康对员工豪气

如今4人分工合作,谢冠宏负责投资人、制订大方向,参与产品发想,林柏青负责万魔耳机的整体营销策略,于世璇则负责耳一号声学(TiinLab),面对一线大客户及策略合作,章调占则负责品牌生产品质研发进度规划。

万魔声学成立满4年,正积极规划深圳A股上市,今年也正式发出第一笔股票分红给资深员工,相对富士康发给主管一年5张或10张股票,万魔对员工显然更豪气。

于世璇不愿意说太多细节,但他强调给员工的“多则买套房,少则可以付首付(头期款)”,以深圳一套房至少500万人民币(约317万令吉)起跳,首付至少要30%也就是100至200万人民币(约63万至约127万令吉)而言,这样手笔在台湾几乎已经绝迹。

于世璇笑说自己就是“带人一起抢银行”的人,要带供应商一起发展跟听有关的关键技术,如动铁、新动圈、振膜及声音有关的晶片或机构组件,一起发掘市场,他也向台湾声学相关晶片或元件产业招手,MEMS麦克风元件或无线发声片IC都是万魔洽谈中的对象。

留在台湾根本没机会

于世璇说,过去听的技术一向掌握在欧美厂商手里,现在万魔期望把TiinLad变成一个真正听的实验室,把声音产业智能化,跟穿戴及家庭产品结合一起。

于世璇也鼓励台湾80至90年代的年轻人到中国创业,他认为“台湾可能给不了太多补助”,但握有技术或有基础,万魔不是只给一张小桌子(一份工作),而是给一片天!他说,万魔希望培养人才。

他感叹:“台湾很可惜,所有可以交棒的人都消失,中国一路完整交棒,虽起步慢却能跑在世界前面,但台湾60至70年代的都等不到机会,仍是40至50年代的把权,他自嘲自己20年前就离开台湾到美国中国工作,“如果我还继续待在台湾根本没有机会!”他直言台湾给不了这么多,万魔则能提供更多机会跟舞台。

新闻来源:苹果日报

http://www.enanyang.my/news/20170730/899531/

Sunway - Attractive Warrant With Step-down Mechanism

Author: HLInvest | Publish date: Mon, 31 Jul 2017, 09:03 AM

Comments

Sunway issued a circular with more details on the proposed bonus issue and free warrants. To recap, Sunway had proposed 4 bonus issue of shares for every 3 existing shares and 3 free warrants for every 10 existing shares. The above proposals were approved by Bursa on 24 July and EGM will be held on 30 August to secure shareholders’ approval.

Compared to ordinary free warrants, we opine that Sunway’s free warrants are attractive as the first-of-its-kind fixed annual step-down mechanism of RM0.07 will enhance the value of warrants.

For ordinary warrants, a dividend entitlement on the underlying mother share would reduce the value of the warrants. However, with the step-down mechanism (which is akin to a fixed adjustment of dividend payment to underlying), the value of warrant would be unaffected (if the quantum of step-down is equal to the dividend).

In the case of Sunway, given the annual step-down of RM0.07, the estimated value of the free warrant is RM0.62 (post-bonus issue adjustment) based on Binomial Option Pricing Model , representing a premium of 34%. However, the estimated value of warrants could fetch as high as RM0.73 if based on our TP of RM5.04.

Note that the step-down of 7 sen is higher than our projected dividends for FY18 and FY19 at 4.6 sen and 4.9 sen (post bonus issue adjustment) per share, respectively.

The higher quantum of step-down compared to dividend projection could further enhance valuation of the warrants.

We gather that while Sunway has no immediate plan to utilize the proceeds (~RM1.15bn assuming full conversion) from the conversion of warrants. Hence, any proceeds raised will be used for future working capital or deleveraging.

Risks
Prolonged downturn in property market;
Execution risk.
Forecasts
Unchanged.
Rating

BUY ↔ , TP: RM5.04 ↔
Sunway remains our Top Pick within the sector as we believe it should be rerated and trade closer to its peers such as IJM and Gamuda (refer to Figure #2) given its diversified income stream and declassification from property sector. At a P/E of 13.9x as compared to peers, we opine that it represents a deep value stock with potential assets unlocking and growing healthcare business which are underappreciated.

Valuation

Our TP is unchanged at RM5.04 based on SOP derived valuation with a 10% holding discount .

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 31 Jul 2017

乾旱衝击马印棕油业 產量强劲復甦料落空

最后更新 2017年07月28日 19时47分

(吉隆坡28日讯)虽然市场普遍预测棕油產量將在下半年復甦,但市场人士认为,厄尔尼诺(ElNino)带来的乾旱天气料使我国和印尼的棕油產量復甦不如预期般强劲。

根据种植业諮询机构Ganling私人有限公司董事林亚丰,纵然厄尔尼诺对大部份种植业者所造成的严重影响已消散,但沙巴和加里曼丹这两大种植地区陷入了更长的乾旱期(直到2016年初),所以相比其他地区,该两大地区的棕油產量预计有1到2个月会低于正常水平。

林氏接受《彭博社》电访时说,厄尔尼诺影响了鲜果串质量,导致棕油搾取率下跌。

「今年上半年的棕油搾取率比去年同期大幅下滑,但降雨量隨后却大幅飆升。」

根据大马衍生產品交易所,10月交割棕油期货在週四(27日)全天上扬1.8%,至每公吨2677令吉(625美元),是自5月份以来的最高价位。棕油价在连续6个月的跌势后,在7月份取得了8.9%的涨幅。

截至今天下午5时,10月份棕油期货价格报每公吨2663令吉。

《彭博社》分析员戴艾文(译音)指出,棕油树在乾旱结束后,未来2年產量可能在都会比往常少。

当乾旱结束后,隨之而来却是东北季候风带来的大量降雨量。东马在去年12月份至今年2月的降雨量大增,加里曼丹和苏门答腊也在5月份遭到水灾的侵袭。

另外,IJM种植(IJMPLNT,2216,主板种植股)首席执行员郑俊冀也认为,沙巴州7月份的棕油產量料按月蒙受「高单位数跌幅」,原因是高降雨量所造成的破坏。

同时,林亚丰讚同郑氏的论点,指沙巴州7月份棕油產量料比上个月有所减少,且比起市场预期西马10%的產量成长来的逊色。

7月產量料走高5.7%

但是,联昌国际投行则相对乐观的预测,大马棕油產量在7月份料增加15%;肯纳格投行的预测则为12%增幅。大马棕油机构(MPOA)却预测,沙巴原棕油產量在7月份的首20天按月下滑5.1%;而西马则可取得11%的涨幅。

「整体而言,全马棕油產量预计將走高5.7%。」

另外,联昌国际投行种植研究区域主管黄丽芳则表示,「市场对大马棕油產量有很高的预期,但目前市场已传出產量將不如预期的揣测,配合大豆油价格近期不断攀升,或许棕油库存將不会如预测般强劲。」

黄丽芳续说,种植领域面对外劳严重短期的问题將继续打压棕油產量。

林亚丰则认为,加里曼丹正面对產量下跌的趋势,预计將持续至今年8月;而西马鲜果串的產量將在9至10月份到达巔峰,而沙巴產量则在9月份开始走高,在10至11月触顶,所以马印两国在今年末季的棕油產量將会大幅復甦。

值得一提的是,沙巴州贡献了全马约1/3的棕油產量,而马印两国棕油总產量占了全球棕油供应的86%。

投资界大佬又响警 金融危机要爆发了!

7924点看 2017年7月30日



罗杰斯。(网络图)

(纽约30日综合电)“商品大王”罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)近日在接受外国传媒专访时再次警告:“每隔4至8年,美国或北美就会出现经济问题,所以说,我们遇到金融问题并不罕见。我预计下一次金融危机将从今年或明年开始,将成为你我人生经历中最糟糕的一次危机。”

看好金价
不看好虚拟货币

因此,罗杰斯看好金价!他透露,自己多年来一直持有黄金,因此现在不会买入或卖出。如果金价跌至低于每盎司1000美元,就会买更多,因为到最后,人们对政府和纸币失去信心时,总是把资金转向金或银。

当被问及若金融市场危机即将来临,除了黄金外,现时还有什么投资选择时,罗杰斯回答:“美元和农业。”那么,近期热炒的比特币等虚拟货币呢?罗杰斯则称,这些虚拟货币似乎已到达高位,他说:“如果看一下比特币的价格走势,就能感觉是有泡沫。”

事实上,罗杰斯在6月初已警告,金融市场最快今年内见顶,之后于未来几年内大冧,将会是他一生中最悲痛的熊市,差过2008年。他倚老卖老地说:“我比很多投资者都年老,经验告诉我,美国经济是每4至7年就要经历一次衰退,现时已第8年,是史上最长或第2长。故此,经济衰退正来临,2008年是因债务,今次的债务更是2008年不能相比。2008年后,全球仍有中国打救,如今中国亦受到债务困扰,今次真的没有救世主,是我一生人最坏的情况,很担心。”

AmInvest Research starts coverage of CSC Steel with FV of RM2.14

Monday, 31 July 2017 | MYT 9:24 AM

KUALA LUMPUR: AmInvestment Research has initiated covered of CSC Steel Holdings Bhd with a Buy call and fair value of RM2.14 based on 10 times FY18F earnings per share (EPS), in line with the average forward price-to-earnings (PE) of major global key steel producers.

It said on Monday it projects CSC's FY17/18 earnings to grow 5%/10%.

The major factors are that: 1) it is one of the dominant local cold rolled coil players in the market; 2) average selling price (ASP) is expected to improve with the ongoing reforms in China as well the imposition of safeguard duties from 2016 till 2021; 3) cost optimisation in production enables it to maintain better margin than its peers.

AmInvest Research said global steel demand is expected to grow marginally by 0.5% (FY17F) and 1.0% (FY18F) from 1.5 billion tonnes currently, underpinned by economic growth in some regions, particularly in the emerging economies driven by the construction sector.

Meanwhile, global production supply is expected to remain flat at 1.6bil MT FY17F/FY18F, with an estimated 2.3bil MT annual capacity and average capacity utilisation of 70%.

The ongoing cuts in China steel production as well the imposition of safeguard duties by the Malaysian government for imports from China has shown positive sign to local steel players.

There are various steel products. amongst others, hot rolled coil (HRC) – flat steel, long billets – reinforcement bars and cold rolled coil – widely used in the manufacturing sector such as automotive, electrical appliances, furniture and others. Currently, the dominant manufacturer of CRC steel is CSC Steel.

“The positive outlook for steel as well as strong local demand is a major boost to CSC earnings outlook,” it said.

The key drivers for the earnings growth are that it is a subsidiary of the largest steel company in Taiwan, hence it is set to benefit from the uninterrupted sourcing of raw material, that is supply of HRC directly from parent company, translating into lower cost of doing business.

Additionally, CSC continues to produce high-grade steel through technological enhancement from the research and development (R&D) of the parent company.

CSC will actively continue to improve its existing products through R&D of its parent company to high-grade steel products to cater the demand of the domestic market.

Also, CSC plans to increase its type of products and to expand its business aggressively to cater for the export market.

“The company is constantly upgrading its existing equipment in order to maintain business efficiency at optimum level.

“As part of the company dividend policy, CSCM will pay dividend at least 50% which translates to yields of around 6%-8% annually,” it said.

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/07/31/aminvest-research-starts-coverage-of-csc-steel-with-fv-of-rm2pt14/#Vw0U0q3QGQBwK9UG.99

周顯﹕毛記上巿也玩財技

文章日期:2017年7月31日

【明報專訊】周五說到,財技無處不在,只是集中在高層次活動,散戶看不到而已。當日匯控(0005)和渣打(2888)供股,就是玩我在《財技密碼》所講的「質數供股法」。咁大隻巨無霸國際企業都玩這些招數,因此你又怎能說財技是只有老千股才用呢?

匯控渣打也玩「質數供股法」

查「質數供股法」由來已久,但是把這做法綜合起來,成為一個概念,而且冠以專有學名,再撰成一書,卻的確是我的初始創造。我可以說一句,在證券界中,30歲以下的從業員,大多數都是拿着我的《炒股密碼》學炒股票啦。

上市團隊專業 不成問題

至於《財技密碼》,則是給會計師和企業融資的專業人士看的,因為他們往往是精通如何去做,但不知為什麼要這樣做,《財技密碼》解釋了操作背後的基本原理。

說回近日流行的「毛記葵涌」申請上市,咪又係財技?例如說,在過去3年,它賺了幾千萬元,又派了幾千萬元的股息,這其中有什麼關係呢?我看過的評論員,都是亂說一通,沒有一個懂得其中奧妙。

據說為它上市的律師樓傳出消息,負責為它上市的團隊非常專業,令人讚嘆,所以成功上市,應該不成問題。我說,呢team人當然專業,我有一個朋友,其團隊就是出自他們,他們打交、搶殼、執平貨,專門做別人做不到的難度工作,2009年出道,𠵱家都炒到兩間上市公司,十幾億資產啦。

所以我常常說,在股票這一行,只要有一技之長,已經足以發財。話說有一位仁兄,本來是黑社會,認識了一個莊家,馬上受到賞識,十零年間,已經賺了幾億元,理由是,根據線人說:「識股票的黑社會,人才好難揾。如果唔識股票,淨識打打殺殺,又點去同人講數呀?」

[周顯 投資二三事]

Sunday, July 30, 2017

Classic high dividend yield play; strong cash flow and low capital expenditure (Insider Asia report)

Author: kcyeo | Publish date: Sun, 30 Jul 2017, 04:13 PM

Classic Scenic Berhad

Classic Scenic’s earnings results for 1Q2017 were broadly in line with our expectations. Revenue increased 0.7% y-y to RM15.5 million. This was mainly due to higher export sales to Asia and the US, which was partially offset by lower domestic sales.

On the other hand, net profit was up 5.2%, excluding forex gains/losses and fair value gain from hedging contracts. Earnings would have been better if not for the change in product mix – more orders for lower-margin products – for the quarter. Net cash stands at RM26.4 million or 21.9 sen per share at end-March, up from RM23.9 million in 2016.

We remain sanguine on Classic Scenic’s prospects going forward. We expect the company to maintain its growth momentum in 2017, underpinned by rising demand for its products on the back of the improving US economy and stronger housing market.

Low-profile Classic Scenic is one of the world’s largest manufacturers and exporters of high-end wooden picture frame mouldings. The company produces over 5,000 products, ranging from stained wood and matt color to gloss lacquer and laminated veneer. Every year, its R&D team introduces 100-150 new designs with better profit margins.

Classic Scenic is a beneficiary of the stronger US dollar with over 90% of its sales derived from export markets, mainly to the US. Its biggest clients are Michaels Stores Inc, Hobby Lobby Inc and Larson-Juhl Inc, with business relationships built over 12-20 years.

In 2016, net profit surged 15.6% to RM13.3 million on the back of a 6.3% growth in revenue to RM57.4 million. This was mainly due to higher sales volume to the US and the stronger US dollar.

More importantly, free cash flow came in strongly at RM17 million (14.1 sen per share) in 2016, due to strong operating cash flow and low capital expenditure (capex).

The picture frame maker has set aside RM3.5 million for capex this year, mainly to increase automation and improve process flow. In addition, it has started sourcing timber logs (instead of sawn timber) since April last year. This will result in cost savings of 15-20%, which will offset the 2-5% increase in timber prices. Due to its high inventory level, the impact of cost savings is expected to be felt only starting 2H2017.

Classic Scenic has one of the highest sustainable yields in the market. It has paid dividends totalling 11 sen per share for 2016, up from 10 sen per share a year ago. We estimate total dividends of 13-14 sen per share for 2017, giving an above-market average yield of 7.2-7.7%.

Source: Absolutely Stocks website

Saturday, July 29, 2017

5 Things You Should Know About Inta Bina IPO

May 23,2017 / By SmallCapAsia / No Comment


Inta Bina Group Berhad is set to be listed on the ACE market on 25 May 2017. At an offer price of RM0.25, 26.8 million shares will be available for the Malaysian public.

Just last week, it was announced that its IPO had been oversubscribed by close to 43 times!!
With such impressive subscription rate, what does this stock have in store for us?

Here are 5 things you need to know about this company.

1. Company Info
Inta Bina is an investment holding company with a wholly-owned subsidiary, IBSB. Through IBSB, they secure and carry out construction contracts. To date, they have completed more than 110 building construction projects mainly in Klang Valley and Johor.

With more than 25 years in the construction industry, they are currently registered as a Grade 7 (G7) contractor. This allows them to tender for construction projects in Malaysia that are of unlimited value.

2. Use of Proceeds
From its IPO, the company aims to raise RM26.76 million. The use of proceeds is as follows:
5 million (18.7%) to invest in the Industrialised Building System (IBS) and machinery
9 million (33.6%) to repay bank borrowings
56 million (35.7%) for general capital requirements
2 million (12.0%) for listing expenses3. Financial Health
From its prospectus, the company has recorded revenue of RM257 million in FY2016. Compared to the previous year, that is a 5.4% drop in revenue. However, over the past 3 years, its net profits have increased by 27.1%, from RM14.0 million in 2014 to RM17.8 million in 2016.

The figures are graphed below for your easy reference.


As of FY2016, its total debt stood at RM32.9 million with long-term debt accounting for RM9.4 million. That is a 17.8% decrease from RM40.1 million in FY2015! You can refer to the table below for the figures.



The company has also recorded a net gain of cash and cash equivalents of RM10.4 million in the same year. That whooping gain manages to turn their cash position around after being in the red for previous years. The surge in cashflow can be attributed to a 244% jump in operating cash flow from FY2015.


4. Dividend Policy

The company does not have specific dividend policy in place but has intention to pay dividends in the future. Payments will depend on the company’s financial performance and capital expenditure requirements.
5. Growth Prospects

Over the next 2 years, the company hopes to strengthen their working capital with the net proceeds from IPO. This will allow them to undertake and tender for more projects of higher contract values.

From 2017 to 2021, the IMR report states that the construction industry and real estate market in Malaysia is expected to grow at CAGR of 8.9% and 4.8% respectively. For Inta Bina’s market share, the report estimates it to be 0.5% and 0.9% within these two industries. These figures will translate to an addition of RM34.2 million in revenue for the upcoming year, an expected 13.3% increase from FY2016!

With the enlarged share capital, its earnings per share will stand at 2.38, giving us a P/E ratio of 10.5. This P/E ratio is relatively low, compared to its industry peers. Hence, all these factors can be the reasons why its IPO has drawn so much attention!

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[转贴] 迎接最后一个月 - 水星

Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Sat, 29 Jul 2017, 11:02 AM

Friday, July 28, 2017

七月份来到尾声, 只剩下一个月左右就轮到水星熊迎接35岁的到来, 也即将是本身财政年的结束.

拳王阿里说过: “如果一个人50岁时看到的世界和他20岁时所看到的是一样的话, 那么他已经浪费了30年的生命”

个人觉得他说得很对, 当初自己也是想趁年轻看看世界的另一面, 赚钱还是其次, 才选择了出国工作, 转眼就快十年了,也确实看到了很多和大马不同的文化和思想方式, 毕竟, 到一个地方旅行和到一个地方工作,你所会抱有的心情和看到的事物是完全不同的.

不懂幸运还是不幸, 无论是之前的坦桑尼亚还是现在的PNG,它们都是第三世界国, 不幸,在于地方的落后与不便, 难以享受一般人所向往的大城市的便利生活; 幸运, 也同样在于地方的潦倒和贫困, 让自己看到很多穷人对生活的态度以及他们的生存方式, 除了能够产生警戒作用,亦有学习的地方.

以最基本的健康为例,自己曾在非洲同时患上过Malaria和 Dengue , 好在公司有提供医疗费让自己接受较昂贵的治疗, 可以很快就治愈, 然而, 讽刺的是很多当地人却常常会死于这些病症, 而且很多时并不是因为它已经来到了不治的地步, 而是他们没有足够的金钱去接受医治, 该意外让自己深刻体会到财务病和生病是同样拥有带走一个人性命的可怕能力, 也同样的该被重视.

回顾即将结束的今年, 综观过去的十一个月, 第一季(2016年9月~11月)算是马股的一个小低潮, 相信主要是受到美国大选的影响, 然而, 这很快就成了过去, 十二月起到踏入2017年的前七个月, 组合都是一片欣欣向荣, 即使没做什么, 慢吞吞的股息派相信也得到了相当可观的资本增值回酬.

水星熊在这星期也突破了个人迄今最高的单笔股息收入, 有八千多元, 旧记录是Panamy的五千多元, 在收息的一刻心情是愉快的, 集中式的派息可以一次性收到比较多的股息, 但可能一年只有一次; 而一年派四次股息的公司则可以不时为自己带来现金流的鼓励和精神充电, 但每次的数额就相对较少. 无论如何, 重点是像水星熊一样的小市民也可以通过上市公司来投资自己有兴趣的事业, 从中为自己带来足够的被动收入, 直到这笔收入能够涵盖我们的日常消费, 就能迎来财务自主的一天.

“投资型花钱”就是每一天都很难,可一年比一年容易;

”消费型花钱”就是每一天都很容易,可一年比一年难。

世界上有20岁的朽木,也有80岁的常青树, 要做那一种人, 是可以自己选择的.

Posted by 水星 at 5:16 PM

http://mercurychong.blogspot.my/2017/07/blog-post_28.html

自己选择

世界上有20岁的朽木,
也有80岁的常青树, 
要做那一种人, 
是可以自己选择的.

拳王阿里说过

拳王阿里说过:

“如果一个人50岁时看到的世界和他20岁时所看到的是一样的话, 那么他已经浪费了30年的生命”

Stop falling into Pump and Dump Scheme. You can learn how to avoid it


Author: DonkeyStock | Publish date: Sat, 29 Jul 2017, 12:01 AM





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You may be interested in:

Value Trap: Are you falling into these traps?

Pump and Dump: How the syndicate operate pump and dump and what type of stock they will pick.

Red Flag Spotting

Some companies are creative in manipulating their accounts. Hence, investors might be misled by the figures shown in financial statements.

Here are some red flag signals where investors could take a closer look before accepting the bottom line figures presented by the management.

Erratic Cash Flow

Huge volatility in operating cash flow. This signal shows that company might have problem in managing their cash flow regardless of receiving cash or making payment to supplier. Some might face pressure from supplier due to the management creditworthiness and has a shorter payment term. This will lead the company into a death spiral where liquidity issue could drive company into bankruptcy even if the company is recording huge profit.

Changes in Depreciation Method

Depreciation takes up a sizable expense in a company income statement. Some company might change their depreciation method not according to the relevant asset useful lifetime. Companies which requires high asset level to operate may change their asset useful life (Eg: from 8 years into 15 years) to reduce depreciation cost in order to lift up the bottom line.

Huge increase in receivables

The management might adopt a lose credit policy to increase the sales of their products and services. This may show a leap in both revenue and profit but ignoring the risk of not being able to receive payment from their customers. Companies has a tendency to do so at the last quarter of the financial year in order to present a more presentable financial statement but this action will definitely harm the company in long term.

Expenses being capitalized

An expenses added to the fixed asset on a company’s balance sheet. Companies might convert some of their expenses, such as financing cost into property and plant; research and development cost may be added up to the companies’ intangible assets. This has an effect of inflating the company Net Tangible Asset

Inventories pilling up

Products that may be obsolete or out of the market favour may be kept in the company warehouse for a long time. The management should have made an impairment on the product or provide a provision for impairment regarding the obsolete inventory. This is also a sign that the company has faced problems in selling their goods.

It does not mean the company you invest is bad if it falls into either one of the category. Just take a closer look before you think you had found a hidden gem.

家丽资机构 周息率上看5.2%

144点看 2017年7月29日
分析:丰隆投行研究

目标价:95仙

最新进展:

家丽资机构(HOMERIZ,5160,主板消费产品股)第三季营业额按年增长10.2%、激增4.4%,至4460万令吉;核心税后归属股东净利则年增27.7%,季增3.9%,至790万令吉。

不过,首9个月的核心税后归属股东净利,则跌1.8%,至2270万令吉,归咎于较高的劳工成本。

行家建议:

第三季业绩符合我们预期,占全年预估的75%.

同时,家丽资机构派发1仙的第二次中期股息,现财年共派出了2仙;我们预计全年将会有5仙股息,意味着周息率可达5.2%。

我们看好该公司通过有效的员工培训及持续寻找自动化的机会,能持续改善成本效率。

此外,公司今年积极参与展览会,预计明年将会是坐享丰收成果的一年。

目前,该公司正处于业务扩张阶段,美元走强会有助抵消经商成本上升,给予“买入”评级,目标价1.18令吉,是根据2018财年11倍本益比计算。

根据计算,令吉兑美元每升值10仙,将会导致我们2017财年财测下跌7.3%,再加上较高的原料和劳工成本,都是公司所面对的风险。目前,皮革和原木占生产成本的44%。

Friday, July 28, 2017

大华继显为下半年推荐的18只新加坡股票

杨佳文
2017年 07月 06日
名家点评, 热门股票

大华继显(UOB KayHian)在7月6日发出的一份报告中提出了一些下半年的投资主题,以及它所推荐的高收益股、大盘股和中小盘股。
海指目标水平:3,250点

大华继显预计新加坡的海峡时报指数(STI)到了年底会达到3,250点(以长期平均本益比及股价账面值比的折扣算出),其分析师认为,本地股市预料不会有太大变动,因为市场应已反映了投资者认为企业盈利将回升的看法。他们也认为,投资者应在机会出现时趁低买入优质蓝筹股及高息股。

大华继显着重的投资主题包括:

一、盈利可能优于预期的企业
二、可能进行重组或并购交易的企业
三、表现良好的出口业者
四、优质领域的落后股

以下为大华继显给予“买入”评级的股票:
首选高息股

辉盛国际信托(ACV),目标价:0.80元,预估获益率:7%
升禧环球信托 (P40U),目标价:0.90元,预估获益率:6.7%
腾飞房地产信托(A17U),目标价:2.97元,预估获益率:6.2%
星狮物流工业信托(BUOU),目标价:1.11元,预估获益率:6.1%
丰树物流信托(M44U),目标价:1.29元,预估获益率:6.1%
凯德商务产业信托(C61U),目标价:1.90元,预估获益率:5.5%
首选大盘股

布米达马农业(P8Z),目标价:1.03元,潜在涨幅:37.3%
丰益国际(F34),目标价:4.40元,潜在涨幅:31.3%
永泰控股(W05),目标价:2.61元,潜在涨幅:31.2%
和美置地(H13),目标价:3.02元,潜在涨幅:29.1%
凯德集团(C31),目标价:4.30元,潜在涨幅:22.9%
泰国酿酒(Y92),目标价:1.09元,潜在涨幅:21.1%
首选中小盘股

和通投资控股(BLS),目标价:3.38元,潜在涨幅:80.7%
亿仕登控股(I07),目标价:0.35元,潜在涨幅:59.1%
ISOTeam(5WF),目标价:0.54元,潜在涨幅:54.3%
中信环境技术(CEE),目标价:1.10元,潜在涨幅:50.7%
免税国际(5SO),目标价:0.49元,潜在涨幅:46.3%
吉宝讯通(K11),目标价:2.51元,潜在涨幅:44.7%

点击股票编号可查阅相关数据 文章链接:http://cj.sharesinv.com/20170706/48176/,所有文章均为本网站原创,转载请注明来源,作者信息并保留文章链接。

2017下半年可以这5只收息股来作防守

林思杰
2017年 07月 26日

以上图片取自nerdsontherocks.com

星展银行(DBS)的投资研究部最近提出了今年下半年的四个投资因素,其中之一是持有具备增长潜力的收息股。今天就让我们来看看以下的5只防御型收息股。
相关文章:

昇菘集团(Sheng Siong Group)

随着其货品配发中心进行扩充之后,昇菘的利润能见度更加清晰。星展银行认为,配发中心扩大将有助于昇菘取得增长及维持毛利率。公司在直接采购、大量进货及产品组合方面的控制能力提高也料将有助于提高盈利水平。

以20.6倍的FY18预估本益比而言,昇菘的估值十分诱人,尤其因为这个估值水平是低于其上市以来的23倍平均本益比。4.1%的股息获益率也是这只股的可取之处。

星展银行设定的目标价为1.20元。
新科工程(Singapore Technologies Engineering)

新科工程正把其业务焦点转移至智能产品方面,例如无人驾驶汽车及智能医疗系统。星展银行预期,智能城市的市场将大幅度扩大,而新科工程可利用其财力来并购相关的企业来刺激业务增长。

美国提高国防开支及减税,乃至恐怖活动日益猖獗促使世界各国增加国防预算等趋势都将对新科工程有利。希望涉足于防卫领域的投资者不可忽视公司在防卫工程方面的专业能力,这只股是投资防卫市场的一个难得方法。

另一方面,公司正着手解决亏欠业务所带来的问题。公司于FY16把其中国特殊车辆业务单位脱售便是这方面的行动之一,相信公司业绩所受到的冲击将会得以缓解。而公司的订单陆续有来令其总订单额接近最高水平,因此加强了其短期内的盈利能见度。

星展银行设定的目标价为4.12元。
吉宝房地产信托(Keppel REIT)

以其目前的股价估算,吉宝房地产信托在新加坡的甲级办公楼组合的隐含价值为每平方英尺2,450元,低于最近办公楼买卖交易的每平方英尺2,700元至3,500元范围。星展银行的分析师表示,基于流动资金充裕以及新加坡办公楼领域的市场情绪正面,短期内的办公楼市值将会持稳。因此,吉宝房地产信托旗下办公楼的价值不应该低于市价水平。除了估值偏低之外,吉宝房地产信托的5%到6%股息获益率也相当不错。

星展银行设定的目标价为1.23元。
丰树物流信托(Mapletree Logistics Trust)

丰树物流信托的物业组合多元化,但它在亚太区物流领域的投资与日提高。星展银行表示,丰树物流仍在增长轨道上前进,并受到正面资本市场的支持以及享有向保荐商收购物业的机会。以丰树物流目前的股价计算,其股息获益率是介于6%到7%之间。

星展银行设定的目标价为1.28元。
丰树大中华商业信托(Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trsut)

市场对丰树大中华商业信托的估值大幅度低于其账面值,主要是因为新加坡的投资者对香港和中国的商业领域并不熟悉,以及外汇换算风险带来顾虑。然而,星展银行认为,丰树大中华自2013年3月上市以来的记录良好,旗下办公楼和零售露面也都位于不可取代的地点。因此,按星展银行的1.25元目标价估算,丰树大中华的股息获益率会是从目前的约6.7%下降至6%,与其香港同行看齐。

星展银行设定的目标价为1.25元。 文章链接:http://cj.sharesinv.com/20170726/48830/,所有文章均为本网站原创,转载请注明来源,作者信息并保留文章链接。

Titijaya - Revitalise and regenerate

Author:   |    Publish date: 


  • We initiate coverage on Titijaya Land Berhad (Titijaya) with a target price of RM2.06, based on 35% discount to its fully-diluted RNAV/share of RM3.17. Our fair value for Titijaya renders a 31% upside to its current share price. Titijaya is a niche developer which focuses on development of lucrative landbank pockets in matured areas. The Group is a financially sound company, enjoying an impressive 5-year compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% for its net earnings from FY2011 to FY2016.
  • Innovative business model. The Group adopts a unique business model in landbanking by focusing on synergistic alliances with reputable government agencies and private developers or landowners in respect of joint venture and land swap as opposed to conventional landbanking. This allows the Group to have zero or minimal holding costs of land and hence strengthens its balance sheet. Also, this enables the Group to save on the sizeable upfront land costs and free up its cash flow for other strategic acquisitions and investment.
  • More strategic tie-ups in the making on the back of monetisation of prime land by government agencies. The Group foresees finalising its earlier plans of land swap deals and development of two property projects strategically located in KL city centre by FY18 or CY6/18. Should the deals materialise, Ttitijaya will require to help the Ministry of Education to construct six school buildings in exchange for a 3.7-acre land in Bukit Bintang as well as the development of a 4.8-acre land in Jalan Stonor which originally belonged to Lembaga Getah Malaysia. Furthermore, we believe the Group is in the midst of concluding more strategic tie-ups in the likes of transit oriented developments (TOD) in the vicinities of mass rapid transit (MRT) stations.
  • Flexibility in projects roll out and swift change of product offerings. As compared to township developers, we opine that Titijaya is able to fine-tune its product offerings swiftly to align with prevailing market condition, demand trend and buyers’ affordability. Furthermore, the Group could ride on its fast turnaround strategy in developing small parcel of landbanks to have greater flexibility on timing of projects launches. This is critical for Titijaya to ride out the current property downcycle.
  • Exemplary margins. The Group has managed to chalk up impressive operating margin of 23-40% during the period from FY2011 to FY2016. Apart from the reason of industrial properties/land sales which command higher margin, itsrelatively low land costs also play a crucial role. Titijaya’s land cost of below 12% to GDV for most of its projects (78% of the projects GDV and 64% in terms of number of projects) and average land cost of 7%, which is well below the 15-20% in the industry. Moving forward, we reckon that the operating margin of the Group will stabilise around 30- 31% for FY17-19F with more land acquisitions in the pipeline coupled with launching of more affordable housing. Still, we deem the operating margin as commendable against sector range of 15-35%.
     
  • Sustainable growth underpinned by sizeable GDV and unbilled sales. Titijaya boasts a GDV of RM14.2b in its on-going and future property projects which will keep the company busy till 2027. The Group’s immediate earnings will be underpinned by RM471m unbilled sales (as of 3QFY17), sustaining its topline visibility for more than a year or equivalent to 1.2x FY16 topline. During 9MFY17, the Group achieved RM180m new sales and is on track to meet its sales target of RM300m for FY17.
     
  • Gearing up more launches of projects with GDV of RM1.8b in the pipeline, targeting mass market segment. In CY2017, Titijaya will re-embark aggressive launches of more property projects to capitalise on current gradual recovery of property market after deferring new projects launches in CY2015/16. The Group will focus on its five upcoming projects, with four to be launched in the Klang Valley (i.e. 3rdNvenue @ Jln Ampang Phase 1 with GDV of RM493m; Damansara West Phase 1 with GDV of RM361m; Riveria @ KL Sentral Phase 1 with GDV of RM317m; and Park Residensi @ Cheras with GDV of RM75m) and one (The Shore with GDV of RM575m) in Kota Kinabalu. We understand that 70% of the new launches will be priced below RM600k/unit in order to cater for affordable housing which is more prevalent, while the remaining of 30% will be priced above RM700k/unit.
  • Geographical diversity. Over the years since its listing in 2013, the Group has strived to diversify its geographical exposure from a Klang Valley-based developer to a renowned nationwide developer. The Group has successfully ventured into Penang with an estimated RM2.6b GDV project strategically located at Batu Maung, which is nearby the 2nd Penang Bridge, and Sabah, a JV project with stateowned enterprise China Railway Engineering Corporation (CREC) in Kota Kinabalu.

Earnings Outlook

  • Earnings to recover from FY18F onwards. We envisage the Group’s net earnings to resume its growth trajectory from FY18F onwards after witnessing a decline of 15.6% to RM68.3m in FY16 and shall remain flat, +4.5% yoy in FY17F. To recap, the Group has enjoyed strong net profit growth in the past few financial years, i.e. FY12: +51.6% yoy; FY13: +63.0% yoy; FY14: +28.2% yoy; FY15: +13.5% yoy. Moving forward, we expect Titijaya’s bottomline to grow by respective +4.5% yoy to RM71.4m, +10.6% yoy to RM78.9m and +14.6% yoy to RM90.4m for FY17F, FY18F and FY19F on the back of rising topline and steady margins. Our new sales assumptions for FY17/18/19F are RM300m/RM500m/RM600m.

Valuation/Recommendation

  • We initiate coverage on Titijaya with a target price of RM2.06, based on 35% discount to its fullydiluted RNAV/share of RM3.17. Our fair value also implies 20x FY18F fully-diluted PE. We believe the worst is over for the Group and advise investors to accumulate the stock as the Group is able to fast track its projects execution to ride on the property recovery, backed by its innovative business model, landbanking strategy and marketing efforts in targeting mass market segment.
Source: JF Apex Securities Research - 28 Jul 2017

Why I Bought into Hengyuan - Koon Yew Yin

Author: Koon Yew Yin | Publish date: Fri, 28 Jul 2017, 10:58 AM

I see there are so many people writing articles and commentaries in i3investor on Hengyuan. Even during last week end, Mr Ooi Teik Bee with 4 of his friends who are also his clients came from KL to my house in Ipoh. He strongly recommended me to buy Hengyuan.

But he was pleasantly surprised that I told him that I started buying as soon as I saw that the company has been producing increasing profit in the last 2 quarters which were 69.27 sen EPS for quarter ending Dec 2016 and 93.14 sen for quarter ending March 2017, totalling 162.41 sen. Based on the result of the last 2 quarters, its annual profit will be about Rm 3.25 EPS. That is why so many investors are chasing to buy it because it is selling at P/E 2.

Where can you find such a good stock selling at such low P/E?

It complies with my share selection golden rule which has a long proven track record.

Based on my golden rule, I have bought so much shares of Latitude Tree, Lii Hen, VS Industry, Eversendai and JAKS and became the second largest shareholders of each of the companies. The share price of each of these companies has gone up several hundred per cent with 3 years. If you look at the price charts of Latitude and Lii Hen, you will see that each of them has gone up more than 800 per cent and VS has gone up more than 550 per cent. Eversendai and JAKS has gone up about 50 per cent in the last few months. They will continue to go higher when they continue to show increasing profit.

Fundamental Business Factors that would affect profit:
During my last 60 years in doing business, I must examine all the factors that affect the bottom line. In the case of refining petroleum, the profit depends on the crude oil price in the open market, refining cost and the selling price of the refined oil. There is an oversupply of crude oil in the world and this situation will continue for a long time to come. Hengyuan is currently sells most of its product to Shell Stations and the pump price is controlled by the Government which is always high to protect Petronas.

Moreover, Hengyuan can sell its product to its own petrol stations in China. This does not sound right but if you examine it closely you will understand what I said. China buys most of its crude oil from the Middle East and ship it to China. The ships have to travel and past Port Dickson, the location of Hengyuan’s refinery on the way to China. Whether Hengyuan refines its crude oil in China or in Port Dickson makes very little difference because the refining process cost is very small in comparison with the selling price.

Currently the local demand for refined oil is more than supply until the completion of the new refinery in about 2 years.

The price chart shows Hengyuan’s share price is on an uptrend which is a buy signal according the expert chartists.

Mr Ooi Teik Bee’s recommendation:

If you are a subscriber, you should have received Mr Ooi Teik Bee’s recommendation of Hengyuan with a target price of Rm 15.93.

I am obliged to tell you that I have quite a lot of Hengyuan and I am not asking you to buy it. But if you decide to buy it, you are doing at your own risk.

As much as I am reluctant to post this piece on i3investor to avoid seeing some stupid commentaries, Mr Ooi Teik Bee asked me to post it to teach people how to make more money.







AirAsia: Outperform Recommendation Reiterated

Author:   |    Publish date: 


Macquarie Equities Research (MQ Research) recently met up with AirAsia’s CFO, Mr. How Kim Lian, to get an update on the low-cost carrier.  Read on as MQ Research provides an update on AirAsia’s leasing entity, its corporate exercise plans, and why it remains one of MQ Research’s top pick in Asian aviation.

Conclusion

  • MQ Research retains an Outperform recommendation on AirAsia with a target price of RM3.95 (+28% total shareholder return (TSR)) post a recent meeting with AirAsia’s CFO. Leasing portfolio monetisation remains in the works, with no change in portfolio size and pricing range. MQ Research continues to see potential for a special dividend, as management confirms that heavy investment outside of fleet acquisition is not required, along with an expected net cash position upon completion of the aforesaid monetisation. AirAsia is one of MQ Research’s top picks in Asian aviation.

Impact

  • Leasing portfolio monetisation updates. There are currently two final bidders, and the company will likely seek approval at the upcoming board meeting in late August. Management kept to its US$900mn-1.2bn valuation guidance on a 74-aircraft portfolio. Structure however has not be finalised—whether it is a sale of entity or portfolio of assets.
  • Upside risk for special dividend post monetisation remains high, in MQ Research’s view. While a 70% monetisation of the proposed portfolio will reduce FY17-19E PAT by 20-24% by MQ Research’s estimate, more importantly, such monetisation will reduce debt by ~RM5bn and in turn make AirAsia a net-cash company. Management talked down the likelihood of AirAsia listco investing in large airport infrastructure around the region. Also, MQ Research believes AirAsia can tap the debt market for future aircraft delivery. For these reasons, MQ Research sees low risk of AirAsia hoarding the cash proceeds from the monetisation. Note that a 60% payout of MQ Research’s estimated US$1.2bn equity valuation for the leasing portfolio, equivalent to a 93sen (30% dividend yield), would mean the founders receive an amount equal to the private placement completed in Jan 2017, which led to increased founders’ stake increasing from 19% to 32%.
  • Corporate exercise updates. Management is focused on:
  1. creating a holding-company structure that would directly own stakes in its overseas venture, with eventual plan to transfer listing status from AIRA MK; and
  2. listing of its Indonesia and Philippines associates, in the next 12 months. The dual-listing plan has put been on hold.

Earnings and Target Price Revision

  • MQ Research adjusts their earnings model as they consolidate AirAsia’s Indonesian and Philippine associates that began from 1Q17, largely contributing to the 9-10% reduction in MQ Research’s FY17-18E PAT. MQ Research understands that upcoming 2Q17 would not see the consolidation of its Thai associate. MQ Research puts through a lower yield to offset the benefit of MQ Research’s lower in-house fuel price forecast. MQ Research cuts their target price from RM4.00 to RM3.95 as they lower their value for AirAsia India, which has underperformed MQ Research’s expectations.

Price Catalyst

  • 12-month price target: RM3.95 based on an EV/EBITDAR (Enterprise value/Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, and restructuring or rent costs) methodology.
  • Catalyst: Leasing portfolio monetization

Action and Recommendation

  • Reiterate Outperform.
Source: Macquarie Research - 28 Jul 2017

Heineken Malaysia - A Brighter 2H17?

Author: kiasutrader | Publish date: Fri, 28 Jul 2017, 08:57 AM

We attended HEIM’s 1H17 results’ briefing yesterday. While feeling reassured with management’s initiatives in improving group operational performance to minimise cost, we expect weaker sales for the remaining of the year to drag earnings prospects. Reiterate OUTPERFORM call but reduce our TP to RM19.30 (from RM21.38, previously) as we cut our FY17E/FY18E net profit estimates by 11%/10%.

Sluggish consumer sentiment. To recap, 1H17 revenue declined by 12% against 1H16. While the higher base in the prior year was driven by the anticipation of a price increase in July 2016, 2Q17 performance was flattish against the seasonally weaker 1Q17 due to an earlier Chinese New Year (CNY) celebration. We believe this to be a result of weaker consumer sentiment, which underpinned the sales volumes of the lesser premium brands that have a larger customer base due to their affordability. However, management attributed newly launched premium brands as supporting YTD sales, which is expected to perform favourably thanks to their growing reception and stickier demand from existing customers.

Greater strive on more efficient operations. The group’s ongoing initiative to streamline operational processes has shown promising results. The initiative includes implementing more effective production and procurement methods, greater traceability on sales front performance and better synergy with distributors. To recap, 1H17 operating margins improved to 18.1% against 16.4% in 1H16. The stronger margins led 1H17 net earnings to only decline by 1% to RM110.6m despite the 12% decline in top-line numbers.

Working towards a better year-end. Management views the soft market to be caused by the rising costs of living, which partly leads to higher demand for less costly contrabands. As the matter has been a recurring long-term concern, the group has been working closely with the regulatory bodies to curb illegal trades as it also cannibalise tax revenues on alcohol products. On the shorter term and in view of the later CNY season in 2018 which may affect year-end sales, the group did not discount the proposal to invest more in marketing and promotional activities to stimulate demand during the 2H17 period. We believe that this may come in the form of further product launches in the premium segment as it appears to be the most sustainable and provides the best returns to the group. However, concerns abound if sales volumes on the lesser premium segment continue to diminish as we believe they account for a larger portion of the group’s portfolio. Still, as we see progressive improvement on group processes, we do not discount the likelihood of operating margins expanding further in the short term.

Post-briefing, we cut our FY17E/FY18E earnings estimates by 11%/10% mainly attributed by weaker sales assumptions for 2H17. However, we expect better net margins going forward, derived through improving cost savings from the group’s operational enhancements.

Maintain OUTPERFORM with a lower TP of RM19.30 (from RM21.38, previously). Our new TP is based on our prevailing 19.0x PER on FY18E (which is close to its 5-year mean PER) on a revised EPS of 101.4 sen. Our dividend estimates of 95.0 sen for FY17E remains unchanged as we expect better pay-out in 2H17. This translates to a dividend yield of 5.3% for FY17.

Source: Kenanga Research - 28 Jul 2017

[转贴] FB LIVE 股理悟道 : 趋势 - 科技 - Harryt30

Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Thu, 27 Jul 2017, 10:54 PM
FB LIVE 股理悟道 : 趋势 - 科技


Tips on How to be Perfectly Happy - Koon Yew Yin

Author: Koon Yew Yin | Publish date: Thu, 27 Jul 2017, 10:21 PM
As you already know, everyone is trying to do or to get what he desires every day. Sometimes even if we achieved what we wanted, we are still not satisfied and unhappy.

You must remember our ultimate aim in life is happiness.

Here are some tips to become happy:

1 Be grateful and learn to say thank you
Greed is often the cause of unhappiness. If we bear this in mind, it is easier for us to be satisfied and be happy. We must be thankful for whatever we have. When we wake up in the morning, we must be thankful that we did not die last night and we have another beautiful day to enjoy. Many people do not realise this and remain unhappy. In fact, psychologists use this technique to treat people with mental depression.

2 Solve problem one at a time:
Our brain never stops searching for solutions, for problems that worry us. This requires a lot of energy, causing the brain to feel tired. Consequently, the problem remains unresolved, leaving us feeling anxious or irritated. On the other hand, for every successful decision, our brain rewards itself with a dose of happiness that help calm the limbic system, helping us to see the world in a better light. So, to prevent yourself from feeling exhausted, tackle problems one at a time.

3. Don’t keep things pent up: talk about what bothers you
The process of going through something while keeping everything bottled up, or talking about your predicament involves using different parts of the brain. In the latter case, negative-emotions that arise while talking about your problem have a lesser impact on your well-being. For this reason, it is advisable not to keep your problems pent up. Talking about your issues will enable the brain to trigger the production of some chemical to make us happy.

4 Touch and embrace:
Social interaction is very important to us humans. Studies show that physical support, particularly touches and embraces, can speed up a person's recovery after an illness. Removing tactile interaction from your life, is interpreted by the brain as physical pain: the same brain zones become activated in both instances. This triggers the processes that affect your mood, contributing to the development of depression.

5. Learn, learn, and, once again, learn!
Acquiring new knowledge means permanent adaptation to a changing environment. Through this process, our brains develop, rewarding its own attempts to absorb and process fresh information with dopamine - the hormone of joy. So, if you want to be happy, don't be afraid to try something new, change your surroundings, and learn new things.

6 Sports
While physical activity causes stress for the body, as soon as the stress ends, the body gets a reward: a dose of endorphins, released by the pituitary gland. This effect is similar to that of morphine which reduces pain and elevates the mood. Thankfully, you don't need to run marathons to do that, walking is enough.

7. Always try to get a good night's sleep
Sleeping in the dark allows your body to secrete the hormone, melatonin. This hormone slows down all processes in the body, helping it to recover and increase the level of serotonin in the hypothalamus. However, if the brain detects a change in lighting, it triggers the release of the stress hormone, quickly awakening the body. It is therefore important to sleep 6 to 8 hours a day and only in darkened rooms.

8. Engage in pleasant expectations
Waiting for something, such as food, is similar to the learned salivation response. Our brain is able to experience pleasure by simply anticipating the pleasant event. It is why we are so fond of counting the hours and minutes to a special moment, such as a birthday, or even the end to a long working day.

9 Live a life of no regrets:
Most people would tell their inner secrets to their trusted friends just before they die. They often have 2 regrets. They wished they had said something that should be said and live a life that they like and not a life to please somebody.

10 How to create happiness?
As I come from a poor family of 12 siblings, I know how difficult life can be. When I was 11 years old, my mother died and my father remarried. My step mother produced another 4 children. I was always in need of something especially food as I was always hungry.

Now I am fairly rich and I must remember that I am spending my children’s inheritance.

That is why, I have given more than 300 scholarships to help poor students to complete their tertiary education. All my scholarship recipients do need to work for me or pay back the money I spent on them. But they must promise me that when they graduate and have some money to spare, they must remember that I helped them when they were poor, they must help other poor students. By this way, I have created many charity workers and the number will continue to multiply after I die.

I am creating happiness and in return, I get happiness. I find great satisfaction and happiness whenever some of my scholarship recipients thank me after their graduation.

Finally, I have written in my will that all my remaining assets will be donated to charity.

福布斯亚洲中小企200大.大马5公司上榜

2017-07-27 16:40

(吉隆坡27日讯)福布斯今日公布2017年“亚太最佳上市中小企业200大”,虽然大马连续两年都有5家公司上榜,但排名却从东盟之冠,降至第三。

越南9公司位居区域冠军

去年,大马和越南各有5家公司挤入榜中,成为东盟“双冠王”,今年越南力争上游,以总共9家公司位居区域冠军,新加坡则由2家变6家,夺下第二名。

虽然总冠军再次归于中国,但上榜公司却从去年的98家缩至70家,日本自13家跃升至38家,排名第二。

台湾和韩国各有30家和20家公司入选,保持第三和第四,比较去年则是各有32家和16家。

福布斯在文告中公布,上榜的大马企业包括ELSOFT科研(ELSOFT,0090,主板科技组)、KERJAYA公司(KERJAYA,7161,主板建筑组)、MYEG服务(MYEG,0138,主板贸服组)、腾达机构(PENTA,7160,主板科技组)和伟特机构(VITROX,0097,主板科技组)。

这份榜单评选营业额介于500万到10亿美元的企业,排名不分先后。

福布斯说,今年在1万8000家上市中小企业中,先选出符合利润、成长和债务等要求的875家公司,再排除股票交投偏低、上市不足一年,以及面对账目、管理、所有权或法律纠纷的公司,最终依据过去1至3年销售额和每股盈利,以及5年平均股本回酬等条件,整理出“亚太最佳上市中小企业200大”名单。





大马5公司简介



●ELSOFT科研的核心业务是研发物料搬运设备和机器人工厂自动化设备等器材。

截至今年3月31日止的最新业绩显示,第一季营业额增加50.2%至1522万2000令吉,净利更飙涨近3倍,由156万2000令吉涨至600万6000令吉。



●KERJAYA公司涉足灯具及厨房橱柜制造、铝制品及室内装置建筑、房产、投资等领域,截至今年3月31日,第一季营业额增加25.4%至2亿3321万7000令吉,净利也提高21.9%至2885万1000令吉。



●MYEG服务是国内首要电子政府和相关服务供应商,提供外劳准证更新、执照更新、网络付费等多项服务,截至今年3月31日的第一季营业额上涨37.1%,高挂2亿6648万4000令吉,净利则大起54.5%至1亿4203万5000令吉。



●腾达机构透过自动设备、自动制造方案和智能管控系统提供管理服务,截至今年3月31日,第一季营业额增加66.3%至4757万2000令吉,净利更猛增超过1倍至753万8000令吉。



●伟特机构主要供应3D立体扫描视线检测系统,截至今年3月31日的第一季营业额提高24.2%,报6960万9000令吉,净利上扬19%至1857万1000令吉。



文章来源:星洲日报‧财经‧2017.07.27

数码网络专注加强后付.改善营运效率

2017-07-27 17:06

尽管第二季获利下跌,但数码网络认为改善赚幅达到原定目标,未来会持续加强后付领域以及改善营运效率。

(吉隆坡27日讯)尽管第二季获利下跌,但数码网络(DIGI,6947,主板基建计划组)认为改善赚幅达到原定目标,未来会持续加强后付领域以及改善营运效率。

数码网络首席执行员奥本慕迪在投资大马大会上表示,公司第二季表现令人满意,营运盈利(EBITDA)获得高达46%成长,证明公司营运优良,同时后付服务也有不错成长。

他补充:“我们在后付领域看见成长机会,未来会继续专注后付的成长以及营运效率。”

询及预付人数下挫,该公司是否有任何应对的策略,奥本慕迪则表示,“由于公司目前正在执行改善赚幅工作,一些获利较少的业务被淘汰,因此预付人数出现下挫。”

询及政府最近严打非法外劳,是否有冲击公司预付用户,他说:“其实政府并没有要减少外劳人数,只是要确定留在大马工作是合法逗留的外国人士,这并不会冲击公司的预付用户。实际上,只需要一张手机晶片就可以成为我们的预付用户,因此来自国外短期逗留游客,也是我们的目标客户。”

谈到主要竞争对手推出各式各样手机绑定配套,该公司是否会跟进,他回应道:“数码网络一直都在观察市场需求,进而推出适合用户的手机配套,从低价至中高价格手机款式都有。”

Telenor拥Mudah网100%股权

政府近期大力推动电子商务,询及该公司是否有任何配合电商的企业活动,奥本慕迪:“从第一层面来看,数码网络目前正在提供可负担网络配套给任何有意从事电子商务的用户,同时也确保线路稳定。另外,很少人知道母公司Telenor拥有Mudah.com的100%股权,目前已活跃于大马电子商务市场。”

文章来源:星洲日报‧财经‧2017.07.27

鹏达首季业绩亮眼.前景看俏

2017-07-27 17:17


(吉隆坡27日讯)鹏达集团(PANTECH,5125,主板贸服组)首季业绩亮眼,分析员普遍看好该公司前景,目标价与评级齐上调。

截至2017年5月31日止首季,鹏达集团营业额与净利报1亿5149万6000令吉及1396万3000令吉,各涨22.23%及72.62%。

艾毕斯研究表示,首3个月的营业额与净利表现相等于全年财测的30%及35%,该公司未来的业绩表现仍能持续改善。

艾毕斯补充,2017财政年的第四季的营运盈利从11.6%提高至12.8%,净赚幅从6.8%提高至8.8%,归功于善用税务奖掖。

肯纳格研究表示,除了岸外业务使用率仍未营运外,不锈钢及碳素钢厂的使用率各为90%及70%,位于英国的Nautic钢铁制造厂使用率也从60%提高至65%。

此外,管理层也期望产量达4万8000吨的电镀厂,2018财政年的使用率可达到50%,并期望2019年,产能可全面运用。

安联星展研究补充,新的电镀厂仍在亏损中,主要是刚设立的成本影响之故,但预期下半年赚幅可获得改善。

肯纳格与艾毕斯看好该公司前景,因此上调评级与目标价。

肯纳格补充,未来海内外有更多的钢铁需求,因此上调2018及2019财政年的盈利预测,预期未来2年的盈利预测为4720万令吉及5040万令吉。

艾毕斯则上调6%及5.5%的盈利预测。



文章来源:星洲日报‧财经‧报道:谢汪潮‧2017.07.27

Bezos surpasses Gates as world’s richest ahead of Amazon results

Thursday, 27 July 2017 | MYT 10:14 PM



Bezos owns about 17% of Seattle-based Amazon, which has surged 40% this year through Wednesday, helping to add US$24.5bil (RM104.8bil) to his net worth. - AFP pic

NEW YORK: A surge in Amazon.com Inc shares Thursday morning in advance of the online retailer’s earnings report has propelled founder Jeff Bezos past Bill Gates as the world’s richest person.

Shares of the online retailer rose 1.8% to US$1,071.31 as of 9:30am in New York. If the gains hold through the close, Bezos, 53, could leapfrog Gates on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. The 61-year-old Microsoft Corp co-founder has held the top spot since May 2013.

Investors and analysts, in addition to watching Amazon’s progress in taking market share in categories such as apparel and groceries, will be scrutinising how many new subscriptions the retailer sold for its US$99-a-year Amazon Prime service, which offers delivery discounts and video and music streaming. Prime shoppers spend more than customers who don’t have a membership.

“Amazon Prime is why so much physical retail is going away,” said Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities Inc analyst who has a buy rating on the stock and a price target of US$1,250.


“Anyone who joins Prime shops in retail stores 10% less, and that number will keep accelerating as Amazon adds more inventory.”

Investors also monitor Amazon’s cloud-computing division, Amazon Web Services, a fast-growing and profitable business that accounts for about 10% of revenue. Amazon leads the cloud-computing industry, but faces increasing competition from Microsoft and Google parent Alphabet Inc.

Amazon is expected to post quarterly revenue of US$37.2bil (RM159.1bil), a 22% jump from a year earlier, according to the average estimate of 34 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, and earnings per share of US$1.42.

Bezos owns about 17% of Seattle-based Amazon, which has surged 40% this year through Wednesday, helping to add US$24.5bil (RM104.8bil) to his net worth.

He started 2017 as the world’s fourth-wealthiest person and has since leapfrogged Inditex SA founder Amancio Ortega, who ranks third with US$82.7bil (RM353.8bil), and Berkshire Hathaway Inc’s Warren Buffett, No. 4, at US$74.5bil (RM318.7bil). - Bloomberg


Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/07/27/bezos-surpasses-gates-as-worlds-richest-ahead-of-amazon-results/#jXCSFGxITGJdZS2i.99

Analyst reports

Friday, 28 July 2017
Analyst reports

KOSSAN RUBBER

INDUSTRIES BHD

By AmInvestment Bank Bhd

Buy (maintained)


Target price: RM8.64

AMBANK reiterates its “buy” call on Kossan, now with a higher future value of RM8.64 from RM7.51. This is based on an unchanged target price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 22 times its projected earnings per share (EPS) for financial year 2018 (FY18).

Following the unimpressive FY16 that was marked with plant maintenance works, absence of capacity expansions and a price war in the second half of the year, Kossan’s net profit is expected to improve from the second half of FY17.

Kossan is expected to add one production line in FY17, which would raise annual production capacity from 22 billion to 25 billion gloves. Based on this increase, AmBank believes that Kossan’s net profit will grow by 15% in FY18.

In fact, the group’s production capacity is expected to further expand from 25 billion to 29.5 billion gloves by end of FY18, thanks to the addition of two more lines.

AmBank estimates Kossan’s earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation margin to be relatively unchanged at 17%-18% in FY18, as the group passes any latex/nitrile cost rises to its customers.

Kossan’s long-term profit growth is expectedly anchored by its commitment to research and development (R&D).

The group’s R&D centre in Meru, Klang, will focus on ways to increase automation and efficiency – optimising efficient chemical use, developing ways to automate processes to reduce reliance on foreign labour and introducing new glove technology.

An example of new glove technology innovation is the production of non-allergenic rubber gloves, which are suitable for all users.

Currently, about 20% of Kossan’s production lines are manufacturing gloves with low-dermal technology, and the hope is that eventually it will be 100%. Such R&D commitment will help reduce operating costs in the long term, supporting AmBank’s suggestion to buy.



image: http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/07/28/analyst-reports/~/media/9aa53d59936e478aa0277273692bcd8d.ashx?h=459&w=600



PANTECH GROUP

HOLDINGS BHD

By AllianceDBS Research

Buy (maintained)

Target Price: 75 sen

PANTECH registered a net profit of RM14mil in the first quarter of financial year 2018 (Q1 FY18), an increase of 73% year-on-year (yoy) and 24% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q).

This was caused by a demand rise at both Pantech’s trading division as well as the manufacturing division. Earnings were in line with AllianceDBS Research expectations at 28% of its full-year forecast, but above consensus at 34%, probably because historically, the first half is stronger than the second.

Net margins also improved to 9.2% in Q1 FY18 from being 6.5% in Q1 FY17 and 7.4% in Q4 FY17.

Pantech has declared a dividend per share of 1 sen for Q1 FY18, a step up from Q1 FY17’s 0.50 sen, implying 53% payout. For Q1 FY18, Pantech recorded pre-tax profit growth of RM12.8mil, resulting in +61% y-o-y and -6% q-o-q.

The y-o-y improvement is largely attributable to the increase in demand and delivery of downstream oil and gas projects, such as Refinery and Petrochemical Integrated Development.

The slight q-o-q drop is due to the intermission period between the structural phase to the development phase.

Pre-tax profit margins improved to 13.8% following 10% in 1Q17 and 12.8% in 4Q17. The improvement is due to an enhanced product mix, which consists of PVF fittings compared to steels, used for structural and earthworks in the previous quarters.

Pre-tax profit for manufacturing improved as well with 40% y-o-y and 34% q-o-q to RM5.5mil due to higher sales contribution from the local manufacturing plant. AllianceDBS Research expects pre-tax profit margins to remain at the current level until FY20.

Although Pantech’s new galvanising plant is still loss-making at end-Q1 FY18 as a result of start-up costs, AllianceDBS Research expects it to break-even in the second half of 2018 and see its margins expand.

Therefore, the research group’s target price is unchanged at 75 sen, as well as its recommendation to buy, where the stock offers a dividend yield of about 4.2%.



image: http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/07/28/analyst-reports/~/media/db96596e2fbc41eeb85046b40f7d74da.ashx?h=498&w=600



SASBADI HOLDINGS BHD

By CIMB Research

Add (no change)

Target Price: RM2.06

SASBADI’s revenue for nine months of financial year 2017 rose 3.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) to RM80.1mil, while net profit fell 1.6% y-o-y to RM12.3mil.

The increase in revenue came from the August 2016 consolidation of United Publishing House, a publisher of Chinese books and dictionaries.

Other divisions generally had lower revenue due to slow domestic consumer demand. The decline in net profit is mainly attributable to higher operating costs.

Earlier, CIMB Research expected iL-Ace’s multilevel marketing (MLM) sales of RM14mil in financial year 2017 (FY17) and RM140mil in FY18.

However, MLM sales have been averaging around RM500,000 per month for the past 12 months. It is predicted that pick-up in sales will take more time, as training for its members is taking longer than expected.

Due to the slower-than-expected MLM sales so far, the research firm now forecasts MLM sales of RM7mil in FY17 and RM70mil sales in FY18.

“We believe MLM revenue in FY18 could surprise on the upside as some MLM players with large distribution networks have recently joined Sasbadi,” added CIMB Research.

On July 25, Sasbadi announced its plan to buy the remaining 30% stake in Sanjung Unggul Sdn Bhd for RM9.4mil, after having acquired 70% of it for RM21mil in August 2015.

Sanjung Unggul publishes Chinese school textbooks, allowing Sasbadi to fully consolidate the latter’s operations: the company can add more titles from its other subsidiaries and publish them as textbooks.

The research firm slashes its financial year 2017-2019 forecast earnings per share (EPS) by 25.4%-38.1%, to reflect slower than-expected iL-Ace sales. Its new target price is still based on a 20% discount to 16 times FY18 price-to-earnings ratio (PE) to show its small market cap.

Despite disappointing results, CIMB Research remains positive on iL-Ace in the long term, thus keeping its “add” rating.

CIMB Research expects Sasbadi to complete the proposed 1:2 bonus issue in the third quarter of the calendar year 2017. The bonus issue should help to improve the trading liquidity and also make the stock more affordable for retail investors.


Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/07/28/analyst-reports/#2gHjVboqmZWt73df.99

跳過分銷批發商 降便利店成本 新模式3年吸逾兩萬小店合作

文章日期:2017年7月28日

【明報專訊】內地的便利店數目驚人,但大部分仍屬於單舖的「夫妻便利店」,因訂貨量少、位置分散,難以直接向生產商訂貨,造成進貨成本高、利潤微薄。深圳公司「轉角街坊」就想出,跳過當中經銷商、分銷商及批發商等,自己當上供應商,直接供貨,大幅降低物流等營運成本,與便利店達至雙贏,扎根廣東3年已吸引逾2萬家便利店成為客戶,明年目標將會進軍湖南省。

明報記者 薛偉傑

深圳市轉角街坊網絡科技有限公司共同創辦人兼行政總裁趙勇表示,根據中國連鎖經營協會2015年數據,全國約1000萬間便利店,年營業額約5萬億元人民幣。但當中只有約21%屬於連鎖經營(包括全國和地區連鎖店),其餘約79%是家庭式經營的單舖。雖然近兩年連鎖便利店比例上升,但估計全國仍有約70%的便利店是家庭式經營的單店。

家庭式便利店通常由兩夫妻經營,零售業一般稱之為夫妻便利店。由於訂貨量小而位置分散,夫妻便利店難以直接向內地的生產商或進口總代理訂貨。一般情况,內地生產商或進口總代理都是先將貨品賣給經銷商,再由經銷商賣給分銷商,再經由批發商賣貨給夫妻便利店。

縮減流通環節 入貨價低2%

由於流通環節多,層層加價,令夫妻便利店的入貨價高於連鎖便利店。此外,每層流通環節都會有庫存,亦令到整體庫存偏多,易造成損耗或浪費。而且,夫妻便利店需要同時向多個批發商入貨,欠缺IT軟件管理,令到業者疲於奔命,耗用更多的運作成本和時間。種種不利因素和限制,令到單舖便利店的競爭力和盈利持續偏低。

因此,轉角街坊的策略就是要改革供應鏈,建立一套「F2B2C模式」,縮減中間的流通環節和成本,精簡成生產商或進口總代理將貨品售予轉角街坊,再由該公司轉售夫妻便利店,可以減少供應鏈整體庫存和損耗,也可以降低夫妻便利店的入貨價。

削減流通環節之後,以最基本合作模式及相同貨品來說,一般夫妻便利店向該公司入貨的價格,大約比以往低2%;由於夫妻便利店的純利只是幾個百分點,看似輕微的成本下降,就已經可以顯著改善盈利;所以該公司在2014年5月成立,至今只在廣東省經營,但3年間已吸引逾兩萬家夫妻便利店成為客戶。此外,該公司無規定便利店每月最低入貨額,也不要求他們改名,只要求他們使用該公司的「轉角店寶」手機App來訂貨。

提供大數據 改善加盟店庫存管理

趙勇又表示,若夫妻便利店向該公司採購所有貨品,每月使用「轉角店寶」手機App入貨3萬元人民幣以上,並願意將店名改為「Jfun轉角」,以及接受「互聯網+」的改造,可以成為該公司的「輕加盟店」,獲得更多優惠。他們的入貨價更低,該公司會提供收銀機及後台的大數據作支持,以協助輕加盟店改善庫存管理;此外,輕加盟店的顧客更可以透過另一個手機App訂貨,由速遞公司送上門。

另一方面,該公司亦向輕加盟店提供熱食,以及建議引入較高增值的進口乾貨,提高毛利。若位置適合,亦會建議他們成為網購取貨地點,增加營業額。該公司亦會有一些新媒體廣告宣傳品牌「Jfun轉角」,令輕加盟店間接受惠。若有需要,該公司可以協助輕加盟店安排銀行貸款,供入貨之用。

愈多夫妻便利店成為輕加盟店,互惠互利效果愈大,除入貨較多之外,該公司有權訂定輕加盟店的送貨日期和時間,改良物流安排,節省送貨成本;該公司暫時不會向輕加盟店收取加盟費或管理費。

至於最深入的合作模式是「委託加盟店」,即是便利店東主改當投資者,將店舖完全交給轉角街坊營運。該公司會協助改善便利店裝修設計和外觀,可以稱為「Jfun轉角」的樣板店。委託加盟店除享有輕加盟店的好處之外,該公司管理下,可以和「百度外賣」合作,提供熱食外賣服務,增加營業額。記者參觀過其中一間委託加盟店,裝修、貨品、熱食的檔次,都高於「萬店通」、「百里臣」等地區連鎖便利店。該委託加盟店設有座位及免費充電插頭,方便光顧熱食的顧客。

去年營業額達5億 明年拓至湖南

由於轉角街坊去年11月才推出加盟計劃,現時只有10多間輕加盟店和兩間委託加盟店,其中委託加盟店均於深圳新開業,稍後東莞亦會有委託加盟店開業。該公司去年營業額已經達到5億元人民幣,並且計劃在明年擴展至湖南省。趙勇承認,內地便利店整體趨勢都是向連鎖化發展,長遠來說,單舖的生存空間將會愈來愈小,所以該公司未來會遊說更多合作的夫妻便利店成為輕加盟店或委託加盟店。

該公司計劃為一些位置較佳的便利店東主制定合作方案,當公司接管店舖營運、分享部分盈利後,可以保證東主每月收取的盈利不少於以往。趙勇稱,根據該公司研究,一般夫妻便利店毛利率約18%至20%,委託加盟店毛利率約35%至40%,所以有信心保證東主的收入。

[行銷攻略]

http://www.mpfinance.com/fin/columnist2.php?col=1463481157901&node=1501178498961&issue=20170728

曾淵滄:兗煤發盈喜 業績惹憧憬

文章日期:2017年7月28日

【明報專訊】高鐵「一地兩檢」的方案公布了,明年今日,高鐵將會正式通車,這對香港經濟發展來說效益非常大,試想想,14分鐘的車程再加上約5分鐘「一地兩檢」的通關手續,不必20分鐘你就可以由九龍直達深圳,一小時之內到廣州坐在酒樓吃飯,試過廣九直通車「兩地兩檢」再加上近兩小時車程的人就會明白什麼是效益。高鐵一通車,九龍的地皮、物業會升值,有興趣的人應該留意。

恒指創兩年新高,騰訊(0700)、友邦(1299)這兩隻恒指成分股中的重磅股創歷史新高,如果匯控(0005)能再接力,恒指應該可以挑戰2015年的「大時代」,畢竟匯控也是重磅股之一。

倘匯控接力 港股料挑戰2015「大時代」

不過,記住2015年的「大時代」與今日恒指翻身是完全不同的性質。2015年的「大時代」是雞犬皆升,垃圾股也狂升的年代;今日不同,翻來覆去就只有10多隻強勢股獨領風騷,我已經非常非常多次在本專欄內告訴大家要緊緊抓住強勢股不放,不要三心兩意,喜新厭舊,把股票換來換去。

領展(0823)發公告說正在進行策略評估,有消息說領展會一口氣賣掉20個商場,如果屬實,那是好事,這是領展逐步淡出公屋商場的過程,減少社會政治壓力,賣商場也能帶來帳面利潤及現金,資金可以用來增加派息,可以投資新項目、買資產,當發展商。

領展傳賣商場 減社會政治壓力

美國聯儲局剛完成兩天的議息會議,宣布不加息。這次會議前傳媒幾乎沒報道,原因是幾乎所有的分析員都認定今次不會加息,儘管如此,這次會議不加息仍然是好事,也推動美股再創歷史高位,進而推動港股,特別是恒指成分股。

兗煤(1171)發盈喜,預計上半年盈利會比去年同期增長4.4倍,可見中央政府一連兩年的供給側改革非常成功,推動了大部分天然資源的價格上升,需求也上升。除了煤之外,鋁、銅、鋼鐵都是供給側改革的對象,相信即將公布的半年業績也十分理想。

不過,股市也經常出現「趁好消息出貨」的壓力,那是一批想快快吃糊的短炒者在沽貨,中長期投資者是可以考慮接收短炒者沽出的股票,好消息畢竟是有利於將來的股價,讓短炒者暫時獲利,由中長期投資者接力,短炒者獲利沽貨的壓力不會持久,沽完就沒有壓力了,也是股價重新上升之時。

大學教授

[曾淵滄 滄海明珠]

http://www.mpfinance.com/fin/columnist2.php?col=1463481132566&node=1501178496621&issue=20170728

周顯:巴菲特炒股都靠財技

文章日期:2017年7月28日

【明報專訊】我在周三本欄寫內行人看股票,講到分析股票的「corporate finance approach」,有一位叫「Amygdala Chan」的讀者留言說:「講嘅都係莊家控制到既細股,其中一個操作賺錢方法啫。如果講係所有股票包埋大股,咁唔通周顯係內行,巴菲特係外行?佢揸住股票無操作收息㗎喎。」

我向來很少回應讀者,因為這會浪費了我的寶貴時間。但這一次是少有的例外,一來,以上的說法很能代表絕大部分無知的股民和財演;二來,看這位Amygdala Chan的臉書資料,相片看來頗為省鏡,而且是科技大學的MBA,還和我有共同朋友湯文亮,因此有優待。

任何併購私有化做慈善都是財技

關於巴菲特,他當然是內行,不過Amygdala Chan卻是外行,才會作出以上的外行話。巴菲特本人就是財技高手,他的第一桶金,是靠着Benjamin Graham的內幕消息,跟買而賺到的。巴菲特入貨,例如買高盛,用的就是財技。他沽股票,例如沽中石油(0857),用平郵寄出申報,也是財技。事實上,當年巴菲特起家,用的正是Benjamin Graham的惡意收購拆骨招數,正正是corporate finance approach的基本招數。

事實上,在股票的世界,最高深的就是corporate finance approach,從長和系、新世界,收購合併私有化重新上市,甚至是蓋茨等科網巨頭把資產注入慈善基金,全都是財技。

散戶無知 有時間應看書

簡單點說,財技有客觀的規律,如果有一間公司,像10年前的蘋果電腦,年年高增長,就算是由阿粉來炒,都會不停炒高;如果有一間公司,沒有業務,年年維持上市費用就要八位數字,就算由巴菲特來炒,都只有依照殼股的規律去炒。散戶無知,有空的時候應該看看周顯大師寫的《炒股密碼》和《財技密碼》,有助於令你腦活腎通,事業成功。(不過美女同「腎通」有無關係,就不得而知了。)

[周顯 投資二三事]

http://www.mpfinance.com/fin/columnist2.php?col=1463481127012&node=1501178496231&issue=20170728

Thursday, July 27, 2017

Part 2 - Biggest Winner of Refinery Margin Rally

Author: davidtslim | Publish date: Thu, 27 Jul 2017, 06:10 PM

Free Cash Flow Analysis

As I mentioned before in my previous article on Petronm (part 3) (https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/david_petronm/127594.jsp), free cash flow from operation is an important metric for me to measure the quality of a company’s earning. Let us go through Henguan’s free cash flow from operation as below:



Source: Q1’17 report

From the above table, one can notice that operation profit before changes in working capital is RM341mil. This is the actual free cash flow generated from operation before considering the inventory, receivables and payables.

It can be observed that HY reinvested free cash of RM262mil in Q1’17 to its inventory as compared to reducing its inventory level by RM82 mil in Q1’16 (bracket mean amount spent). It also spent RM38mil to reduce its payables and receivable is increased by an amount of RM35mil. As a result, it net cash flow from operation is only RM6.9mil (Q1’17) as compared to RM32mil (Q1’16).

Now we can observe that reducing inventory level can increase the cash flow from operation and increasing inventory level will has opposite effect. You may wonder why HY wants to invest heavily in its inventory instead of paying off its debt.

Let see another cash flow report from previous quarter (Q4’16) as below:



Source: Q4’16 report

From table above, there are free cash flow of RM660mil in Q4’16 from operation before changes in working capital while RM498mil of cash generated in Q4’15.

What I want to show to you from the above table is Shell (now HY) can produce cash from of RM781mil by reducing its inventory by an amount of RM181mil in Q4’15. Similarly, HY also generated RM110mil free cash even it invested RM125mil in its inventory in Q4’16. Alternatively, please refer to the chart below for a general picture of cash flow for HY from 2014-2017 (Q1 only)



What are the conclusions we can draw from these two tables and the above chart?

1. Free cash flow can be increased by reducing its inventory (mean sell some stock for cash).

2. High quality of earning as it can generate good cash flow from operations (RM117 mil and RM783mil in Q4’15). One may question that RM6.9mil (Q1’17) is low cash flow but bear in mind that the low cash flow is due to HY reinvested RM262mil cash to its inventory. Imagine how much free cash HY able to keep in bank if it just invests a portion from the RM262mil cash to inventory (say RM80mil).

Next, I will discuss its possible motive of keeping high level of inventory.



Motive of High Level of Inventory

As mentioned by my previous article (https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/davidtslim/128328.jsp), HY keeps inventory of RM1,075 mil. Its inventory should consist of and crude oil and refined petroleum products (Eg. naphtha, gasoline, diesel, heating oil, kerosene). From my imagination or deduction, it may want to increase its daily throughput from 112k bpd (Q1’17) to a higher level in Q2’17. The motivation of this throughput increment is due to 5-year high refined margin (crack spread).

Let us have an assumption of the larger crude oil stock due to higher value of inventory:

Previous HY’s article assumed 18 days stock for about 2.02mil barrels of crude oil (112.2k x 18). If HY wish to increase its throughput by 11% or 12.8kbpbd to 125kbpd, then it needs to keep around 2.25 mil barrels (18 days x 125k) of crude oil stock.

New Profit calculation if throughput is 125kbpd (kilo barrel per day)

New Stock loss = 2.25mil brl x (48.2 – 52.95)

= USD -10.69mil

= RM-45.96mil



New Refinery margin in a quarter (based on its Q1 estimated throughput per day of 125 kbpd)

= 11.25mil barrels X USD8.25 (estimated profit margin per barrel)

= USD 92.81mil

= RM 399.09mil



Let calculate the new Gross profit of Hengyuan’s Q2’17 as below:

Gross Profit = -45.96+ 399.09

= RM353.14mil (assume 125 kbpd)

From previous article (https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/davidtslim/128328.jsp), gross profit calculated by assuming throughput of 112.2kbpd is = RM317.06mil

So the net increment in gross profit (GP) if throughput 125kbpd

= RM353.14mil - RM317.06mil = RM36.08mil



Let us compare the difference if Hengyuan management keeps the 80% of RM262mil cash to Fixed Deposit in bank (or reduce debt) instead of reinvested in inventory.




Keep in FD (3% interest)

Reinvest in inventory

Difference


Gross Profit from RM262 mil cash

RM6.28 mil per year from interests



Converted to 90 days interests = RM1.57mil

GP = 353.14-317.06

= RM36.08mil



ROI in FD is 3%



ROI in reinvestment = 55%

ROI = return on investment




From the table above, I leave it to your own judgment whether management’s decision to reinvest RM262 mil cash to inventory is a wise or right decision or not.

Actually RM36.08 mil can increase gross profit of HY by 9.13% based on Q1’17 profit.

In short, my deduction of HY increased its inventory in Q2 is to increase its daily throughput to boost its earning as currently the refinery margin is near to 5-year high.

Return of Equity (ROE) data

ROE is a measure of company's profitability by revealing how much profit a company can generate with the money of shareholders have invested. Formula for ROE is as below:

ROE = Net Profit / Shareholder’s Equity

Let calculate ROE of HY based on its equity and net profit.


Year

2016 (Q1-Q4)

2017 (Q1’17, Q2-Q4’16)

Growth


Net profit

335 mil

513 mil

53%


Equity

1010.4 mil

1274.8 mil

26%


ROE

33%

40%

21%


A ROE of around 18% is considered good enough, 20% is excellent, and 25% and above is considered superior.

Why I said 25% is superior? It is because this ratio indicates the company is very efficient to generate profit using the shareholder’s money (4 years can earn back our entire invested fund).

ROE of Hengyuan is 40% based on trailing 12-month’s profit and equity. If this ratio can be maintained, one can estimate how long they can earn back shareholder’s fund.

I may discuss other indicators like EV, EV/EBIT and ROIC if deem necessary in my part 3 article of HY.

Prospect

HY’s profit is closely related to refinery margin (crack spread). Why “crack” term is used in refinery industry? It is because refiners buy crude oils and crack them into petroleum products. The differential between the finished products (e.g. gasoline, diesel, jet fuel etc) and the crude oil is called crack spread.

Let see the latest Singapore crack spread chart up to end of July to estimate HY’s visibility of its profit in Q3’17 (July-Sept 17) as below:



Anyway, this is just up to end July. I may prepare another article for refinery margin estimation if got time in future.

Let us have an overview of all the Malaysia oil refinery players.

1) Hengyuan Port Dickson Refinery, 156 kbpd (24,800 m3/d)

2) Petronas Melaka I Refinery, 100 kbpd (16,000 m3/d) – Not listed

3) Petronas Melaka II Refinery, 170 kbpd (27,000 m3/d) – Not listed

4 ) Petronas Kertih Refinery, 40 kbpd (6,400 m3/d) – Not listed

5) Petronm Port Dickson Refinery, 88 kbpd (14,000 m3/d)

6) TIPCO Kemaman Bitumen Refinery, 30 kbpd (4,800 m3/d) – Not listed

Theoretically Malaysia has maximum daily capacity/throughput of 584 kbpd. Anyway, I guess most of the players did not run at maximum daily capacity. I estimate most of average daily capacity for these players is around 85% (except Petronm) which lead to around 500 kbpd. Of course, I am aware of RAPID project but that is the story of 2019.

Our neighbour, Singapore has 3 refinery plants (owned by Exxon, Shell and Singapore refinery) which collectively have a daily maximum capacity of 1380 kbpd. Based on our country demand data, I believe Malaysia still import refined products from Singapore as our supply is still less than demand.

As some of you may aware, Alibaba (Taobao)’s regional (SEA) distribution hub will be based in KLIA (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-alphabet-results-research-idUSKBN1AA1ON), Malaysia. From this development, I expect future land and air travelling will be increasing that will lead to higher diesel and Jet fuel consumption.

In short, I think the demands in medium term in Malaysia should still have room to grow. In addition, the supply in Asia is also limited due to some scheduled and unexpected maintenance in Asia’s refinery players. Please refer to some supporting news for the above-mentioned maintenance as below:

1. http://jakartaglobe.id/international/asia-gasoline-outshines-jet-fuel-diesel-supply-shrinks/

2. http://www.hydrocarbons-technology.com/news/newsreport-asia-had-highest-refining-capacity-under-maintenance-in-q1-5817585

3. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/asia-refinery-2016-2017-maintenance/outages/articleshow/58921267.cms

It is worth noting that refinery operation margin depends on crude oil cost, transportation, factory efficiency, throughput or volume, distribution network, refinery location and simple or complex refined system (HY is a complex refiner).

Let see a latest news on Royal Shell's result boosted by refinery as below:

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/07/27/shell-profits-triples-on-stronger-refining-and-oil-prices/s/



Summary

1. What I can see from refinery business is a business which has a consistent and slow growing consumption (due to Malaysia vehicle population is growing) and its profit is closely related to crack spread (refinery margin).

2. Stock loss (due to falling of price of crude oil) can be easily offset by refinery profit (as shown in my earlier calculation) with positive surplus based on current refinery margin.

3. Again, I would like to stress that refinery business is a highly recursive business and super low labour-dependent as compared to other non-continuous business revenue (Eg. construction sector depends on contract), where the management skills, competency, weather, material costs, labour supply where all of them play an integrated role which is sometime unpredictable.

4. HY’s Q2 high level of inventory may lead to a possibility of its daily refinery throughput increment which should further drive its Q2 profit to a higher level.

5. To reap profit from stock market, one good practice is buy a good company at CHEAP price and SELL it when it is already fully valued. For me, LOW in PRICE ≠ CHEAP, HIGH in PRICE ≠ EXPENSIVE. It is all depend on future earnings visibility per share and cash flow from operation. (Reason for high in price is due to profit keeping increasing but total no of shares remain intact)

For those interested on technical analysis on Hengyuan, please refer to the chart below where I can notice a broke out and uptrend momentum signal. DE (Deviation Expert) signal shows a positive inflow fund with two Red bars on 25 and 26 July (mean fund inflows > outflows). The Red bar on 26 July is longer than previous day also indicates stronger inflow fund which correlates well with price action.





Stay tune for my Hengyuan’s Part 3 article for its possible foreign exchange gain or loss, further cash flow and debt analysis, valuation analysis etc.



You can get my latest update on share analysis at Telegram Channel ==> https://t.me/davidshare

Disclaimer:

This writing is my own imagination for all the assumptions and estimations. It is strictly for sharing purpose, not a buy or sell call of the company.

Part 1 - Biggest Winner of Refinery Margin Rally

Author: davidtslim | Publish date: Fri, 21 Jul 2017, 05:29 PM

Hengyuan (HY) is a refinery company owned by Shandong HengYuan Petrochemical company limited, China. It acquired 51% shares from Shell oversea holding in Dec 2016 for RM300 mil. Let see from 2016 annual report who are the 30 largest shareholders of HY (after acquisition, updated to 31 March 2017)





One can observe that there are 3 local reputable institutional funds (Amanahraya, EPF, KWAP) still collectively holding more than 10% shares of HengYuan. Another investor that attracts my attention is Mr Deva Dassan Solomon (no 9, no 14, no 15, no 19 and no 20) holding substantial stake (some are through his family members).

A lot of investors may have bad perception about china controlled listed companies in Malaysia. From its Malaysia based business (factories in Port Dickson, auditors in Malaysia) and the data that I gathered, I think credibility of Hengyuan is Not an issue at all. You can refer to an article (by Icon88) about Hengyuan at https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/127661.jsp

Fundamental Data

HY’s profit (5 years) and dividend charts can be referred to my another article at https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/david_petronm/127594.jsp. HY generated 171 sen EPS (Profit before tax). HY can be exempted of paying income tax is due to utilisation of tax losses (deductible temporary). Let revisit HY profit over past 3 years as shown in Figure below:





Its trailing 12-month profit before tax climbing to RM512 mil (171 sen EPS). If we consider about 26% tax rate, then EPS of HY will be around 126.5 sen which lead to PE ratio of 4.57. This is the past data and I am more interested on its future possible profit and PE. Let us have an analysis of HY possible future profit.

Coming quarter Profit Forecast for Q2’17 (April-June 2017)

Let me perform a forecast analysis for their latest Q2’17 (to be released in August) based on its refinery business.

Due to Crude oil price sliding from 31 March as compared to 30 June 2017, it will suffer some inventory stock loss as it should keep around 18-21 days of crude oil stock (18 days crude inventory of 2.02mil barrels is from calculation of quarterly crude oil sold data).

Calculation of profit (including stock loss)

1) Brent Crude oil reference price on 31 Mar17 = 52.95 USD/brl (based on investing.com on 31 March)

On 30 June, Brent oil price closed at = 48.2 USD/brl (based on Brent oil price at Asia time at 11.59pm from Investing.com)

Stock loss = 2.02mil brl x (48.2 - 52.95)

= USD - 9.59mil

= RM-41.24mil

(2.2mil brls are estimated 18 days stock from 10.1 mil barrels sold. Source: Q1’17 report)

2) Refinery margin in a quarter (based on its Q1 estimated throughput per day of 112.2kbpd although its max daily capacity is 156kbpd).

= 10.1mil barrels X USD8.25 (estimated profit margin per barrel)

= USD 83.33mil

= RM 358.30mil



Maybe some of you wonder how I get the refinery margin of USD8.25. Please refer to my 2nd article on Petronm (https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/david_petronm/127424.jsp) or check on the graph for Singapore Crack Spread (refinery margin) data as below



The average data of 3 months crack spread is around USD9.1 and I take the value of USD8.25 is due to I discounted 10% for possible data reading error for higher margin of safety.

Still not convincing enough? Let see some past official refinery margin data from 2016 Hengyuan (former Shell) Annual Report (page 47) as below:





Source: HengYuan 2016 Annual report

From the table above, we can observe that HY’s FIFO (first in first out) margins were USD5.46 per barrel due to higher sales volume in 2016 vs 2015.

A quick comparison of the CME group crack spread chart and the table (2016 AR) we can notice that refinery margin was climbing higher in period of Q1’17 (average is higher than 5.46) that lead to the HengYuan reported a super high net profit of RM279 mil. One can also notice that refinery margin is even higher in Q2’17 (April-June) which is serve as ground support for my refinery profit calculation (358.30mil).

Let calculate the Gross profit of Hengyuan’s Q2’17 as below:

Gross Profit = -41.24+ 358.30

= 317.06mil

Assuming same operating cost, other income and finance cost of RM116.1 mil as per Q1’17 (from Q1 report),

Net Profit = (317.06-116.1) mil = RM200.96 mil.

This net profit has not factored in the highly possible forex gain due to appreciation of RM in Q2.

Assume Zero tax rate as per last quarter (utilize tax losses)

Net profit = RM200.96 mil

RM197.3 mil --> EPS of 66.99 sen.

Let see the possible coming 3 quarters result for YoY comparison

2016 and 2017 Quarter Profit




2016 (mil, EPS in sen)

2017 (mil, EPS in sen)


Q1

101.97, 33.88

279.48, 93.16


Q2

107.05, 35.56

calculated (200.96, 66.9)


Q3

-80.80, -26.95

estimated by 80% from Q1’17 profit(223.84, 74.52)


Q4

207.04, 69.27

?? (depend on refinery margin)


Total

335.72mil, 111.7

estimated 3Q only (709.26 mil, 234.65)


Based on current price of RM5.79 with a possible 234.65 sen EPS (3 quarters only), one can estimate the possible PE for Henyuan after Q3’17 result is released in Nov 2017 (PE 2.48 or lower if refinery margin can be maintained).

From Q1’17 and Q4’16 reports, one can notice that HY keeps high level of inventory (increase from 825mil to 1075mil). I will discuss its possible motive of this high level of inventory in part 2 article.

I think Hengyuan should still have 30-40% upside in term of current market valuation. If refinery margin can be maintained in 2H2017, its upside room is sky high as it can reap super high profit from operation (Shell traded at price of RM8+ to RM10+ from 2011 to Sept 2013, please check the EPS at that period!)



Worry of its high level of debt?

One should notice that HengYuan has RM1,414 mil borrowings (Q1’17 report). We should assess its future earning capability and more importantly its free cash flow from operation to know its ability to pare down its debt.

Let have a look on its latest inventory value (source: HY Q1’17 report)

Inventory value: RM1,075 mil

Receivables = RM960 mil

Payables = RM604 mil

Cash in hand = RM285 mil

One should know that its inventory consist of and crude oil and refined petroleum products (gasoline, diesel etc) which is highly liquidable (can be easily sold in market). If HY really desperate for cash, it can always reduce its inventory level and convert some of them to cash.

In fact, it also has high level of Receivables which if we minus out Payable will result in a surplus of RM356 mil.

Total liquid assets = 1075+960-604 = RM1,431 mil

These liquid assets (without considering its cash in hand, lands, PPE etc) actually can settle ALL borrowings of HY with a positive surplus of RM17 mil.

Risk:

1. Stock loss of finished product (gasoline and diesel etc) from frequent price change which is a result of weekly price system (HY employs FIFO system which should has some gain and loss)

2. Big drop in refinery margin which I think is not likely to happen in short term based on my monitoring on Singapore Future price of petroleum finished products (Mogas 92 and 95).

3. High volatility of crude oil price (dropping may result in stock loss) while price up will result in stock gain but the loss can be easily offset by higher refinery margin with surplus (from 2015 and 2017 Q1’s results). Crude oil is in decent range (USD43-USD55) which is profitable for refinery player (from increasing refinery crack spread data from CME website)

4. Upgrading plan (RM700 mil) which has been finalized to ensure HY to meet the Euro 4M specifications mandated by the government. The project is planned to be financed mainly from a mix of cash flow generated from operations and a further draw down from an existing term loan. High level of debt can be reduced by foreseeable huge profit and cash flow from operation.

5. This RM700mil upgrade also increase the daily throughput which may further increases its profit and drive down its refinery processing cost per barrel.

Summary

1. We are talking about nearly 40 mil barrels of oil sales volume per annum (AR 2016 data). Imagine if HY can reap a profit margin of USD6 to USD8 per barrels, how much gross profit HY can generate per year?

2. Crude oil price has been stabilizing in the range of USD43 to USD55 in 2017. This paves the room for stable (in fact increasing) refinery margin and I foresee future margin should be sustainable.

3. Due to Ramadan month was in Q2’17 (June), it is expected higher number of land and air travelling which should increase HY’s selling volume (HY major customer is Shell Malaysia)

4. Possibility of increasing its daily refinery throughput will further drive its profit to higher level. Currently HY is running at around 72% of its max daily capacity (156kbpd)

5. Higher future demand of gasoline, diesel, LPG, and aviation fuel from growing vehicle population in Malaysia will provide future growth opportunity in profit for Hengyuan.

6. Buying a counter is buying its future profitability where past FA data is served as reference. Although HY current balance sheet is still not healthy enough, but with lucrative refinery margin in 1H2017, I think it can improve its balance sheet and cash flow by year end.

Stay tune for my Hengyuan’s part 2 report for its free cash flow analysis, motive of its high inventory, ROE, quality of earning, possible foreign exchange gain or loss, valuation analysis and its major customer relationship.

Disclaimer:

This writing is my own imagination for all the assumptions and estimations. It is strictly for sharing purpose, not a buy or sell call of the company.