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Friday, June 30, 2017

[转贴] PETRONM – 原油价格走势的影响 - RH Research

Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Fri, 30 Jun 2017, 06:21 PM

众所周知,PETRONM主要从事石油产品的生产和销售,涉及石油中下游领域。其波德申炼油厂的每天产能为88,000桶,生产各种石油产品,包括汽油、柴油、润滑油、液化石油气 (LPG) 、工业和商业燃料等。其强大的下游业务涵盖整个大马超过570个油站。

上个月在FY17Q1标青业绩出炉后,PETRONM似乎吃了泻药,其股价不升反跌,从高点8.90暴跌至目前的7.25,相等于约19%的跌幅。背后下跌的原因相信是与原油价格近期暴跌有非常大的关系。BRENT原油从5月的每桶USD54暴跌至早前的USD45,较今年4月高位下跌超过20%,符合熊市定义。

市场就是如此,对于原油价格的走势非常敏感,可轻易影响油股。回归基本面,原油价格在2014年从每桶USD100以上暴跌至每桶USD50以下,但是PETRONM的盈利却意外转亏为盈,而且是越做越好。不得不说,市场上非常多的散户以及投资者对于PETRONM的业务缺乏深入了解,一致认为原油价格的下跌对于集团来说是个利空因素。

PETRONM的业务涉及中下游原油领域 ,也就是向上游领域的采油业者购买原油,送往位于波德申的炼油厂进行提炼。之后,再把完成提炼的各种汽油产品运输到添油站,或者转售给大型商业企业。

原油价格暴跌,受影响幅度最大的莫过于上游领域业者,如HIBISCUS、REACH和SAPURA。无可否认,原油价格的波动对于PETRONM有一定的打击,但却不是影响业绩的最关键因素。其FY15和FY16的表现就是最好的证明。 在此,先讲解关于PETRONM业务的运作。

举个例子,PETRONM向上游业者购买原油,而一开始每桶原油售价为USD50。集团之后把原油送往炼油厂进行提炼。原油价格与提炼后的汽油产品价格之间的价差就是PETRONM的炼油赚幅 (Refining Margin/Crack Spread)。由于汽油产品的价格是根据市场的供求来决定,因此炼油赚幅也会随之改变。假设炼油赚幅为每桶USD6,那么PETRONM将提炼后的汽油产品以每桶USD56的价格卖给油站,油站再转售给消费者。

根据APM定价机制,大马汽油价格取决于汽油提炼产品的平均价格,主要依据新加坡汽油平均交易价【MOPS】,而不是根据原油价格来计算汽油价格。换句话说,大马人要在提炼后的油价下滑后才会受惠。由于每公升汽油的毛利已经定在5仙,无论原油价格或者提炼后的油价走势如何,经营油站的PETRONM依然可享有稳定的收入。当然,这仍未包括经营油站的开销。一桶汽油大约159公升,PETRONM可从每桶油赚取约RM8或者USD1.85的毛利。

当原油价格下跌至每桶USD49时,PETRONM依然可从每桶汽油赚取USD1.85的毛利,外加炼油赚幅与成本的差别。在每桶汽油毛利固定下,炼油赚幅的走势是集团业绩表现的最主要因素。这可解释为何PETRONM在原油价格低迷之际,其盈利却相反走高。

然而,PETRONM却必须承担每桶USD1的一次性库存亏损 (Inventory Loss),主要因为早前够买的那批库存成本为每桶USD50。换句话说,集团必须以较低价格出售成本较高的库存。假设PETRONM的每桶炼油成本为USD3,那么其毛赚幅就是炼油赚幅USD6减去成本USD3,等于每桶USD3。再加上每桶销售汽油的毛利为USD1.85以及一次性库存亏损USD1,集团依然还赚取每桶USD3.85的毛利。

必须注意,由于原油价格每天都在上下波动,基本上PETRONM每一天都会有库存亏损或者库存收益。集团平均累积3至4个星期的库存,而库存都是以“先进先出“的方式出售。因此,原油价格的波动对于PETRONM的影响幅度有限。

PETRONM的本地市占率从去年初的17.4%提升至目前的19%。近两个季度的营业额成长就是最好的证明。由于其油站业务发展良好,未来预计可进一步从BP、SHELL和PETRONAS手上抢夺更多市场份额。

虽然原油价格在6月瞬间走软,但是亚洲区域的炼油赚幅却继续走高 。以下是新加坡MOGAS95期货的走势。按这来看,PETRONM的FY17Q2表现有望保持强劲。本专页预测其下个季度的盈利介于RM80-90m,相等于每股30-35仙盈利。

目前,PETRONM的PE只有6倍,股东回酬 (ROE) 超过20%,而且每年皆可创造RM300m左右的净现金。其银行贷款已从FY14的RM1b左右下滑至目前的RM300m,未来2年有望晋升为净现金企业。再加上其油站越做越好,PETRONM几乎可说是无可挑剔。现阶段的Knee-Jerk Reaction暴跌已为大家制造一个趁低吸纳的良机,千万别错过!

对于股票分析报告有兴趣的股友,可私下PM本专页,以了解详情!

#PETRONM
纯属分享!

How To Instantly Become Motivated

T. Harv Eker



A question I frequently get asked by students from around the world that is so simple, yet very powerful is:

How do I go from being unmotivated to motivated?

The answer always boils down to only three letters and one word: Why?

Many people are unmotivated because they don’t have a why that resonates with them. They don’t have a REASON for being motivated. In other words, un-motivation is kind of an inertia.

The law of momentum states that a body in motion will tend to remain in motion and a body at rest will tend to remain at rest unless acted upon by an outside force.

This means you’ve got to get yourself moving in the direction you want! And that’s why you’ve got to have your why. You’ need to have your reason for why you want to do what you’re thinking of doing.

This can relate to wealth, health, relationships, moving cities, and changing jobs; it could be about anything, but the bottom line is you’ve got to have a why.

Jim Rohn once said, “The bigger the why, the easier the how”, meaning that if we have a good enough reason or a good enough purpose for doing something, the how will come. You’ll get it done and it doesn’t have to make sense.

There’s a story I once heard about a slender woman who was driving with her son. Something happened with the tire and when the son was trying to fix it, the jack fell and it pinned him under the car. He was losing his life and somehow this woman lifted up that corner of the car for him to get out. How crazy is that?

Scientists have done research on this because of the extreme creative ability that we have to recreate ourselves in times of need. In that case, it was the why or the reason.

Miracles can happen when you have a big enough why. Why is whatever you want important for you? Why is money important for you? Why is wealth important to you? Why is freedom important to you?

People ask me this question all the time. They say, “Harv, you went through so much struggle early on in your career. Why didn’t you give up?”

The answer is because I had a bigger why than any struggle that I could entertain or have come over me. My why, although not overly enlightened, was very simple: I needed to prove something to my parents.

I needed to prove that they were wrong when they told me I’d never amount to anything and that I’d be broke and begging them for money.

Again, it’s not enlightenment because it’s coming from fear. Once I started getting a little bit of a base of security in the financial element, though, my why turned into something different.

I wanted to be able to do what I wanted with my time, my energy and my life. I didn’t want to have to be beholden to anyone or anything and I just wanted to be free.

All I wanted was freedom, so that became my why. Then I became fully financially free.

Let me give you one more clue here about your why, because it’s one of the most important things you can ever do. First, your why should have two sides to it. First is you. What is this doing for you? Why for you? Second, your why has to be bigger than you.

It’s why for yourself and then why for something bigger than you, whether it’s your community, your country, your team, your office or the people in your business, a charity or a wellness situation.

If you have those two why’s, one for yourself and one to help others or the world, you’ll be motivated.

Without a why, you will be unmotivated. It’s as simple as that.

The question is what is your why? Why do you do what you do? Why do you want to be successful? Why do you want a great relationship with your family, friends, or significant other? Why do you want freedom? Leave me a comment below, I would love to hear from you!

http://www.harveker.com/2017/06/20/instantly-become-motivated/

TTP - Up 450%

Mar 27, 2017

Up 450%

Dear Ed,

I don’t know how to start saying thanks.., for "all" the knowledge you share with the "young traders", personally for me to have access to all your insights, gave me the possibility to change my performance... Basically I get in the Investment Industry, post MBA and I have been for 4 years losing ALL THE money (basically focus in fundamentals..)and from march 2016 to today I have made 450%, but more important than that, I start to learn how to lose and get away my ego from the game.

I still have problem with (cut your losses and ride your winners), but I am working hard on that issue, "Really doing my homework / Basically studying for two years all the available books of trading"

I hope in 2018 I would be able to pay a "private consulting" to speak of trading/life.

Thanks again for share your knowledge

Best Regards,

Ed Says

Thank you for sharing your process and for acknowledging the work.

http://www.seykota.com/tt/2017/Mar/01-31/default.html

TTP - System Development

Mar 27, 2017

System Development

Ed,

I have recently read Jack Schwager's book regarding your trading style and found it inspirational.

I have traded for a number of years for institutional asset managers , but have also spent the last 7 years developing my own systematic trading model I hope to use on my own account.

After such a long time developing and finessing my system , I believe it your interview acted as a light bulb moment for me in a number of ways. Firstly your comments regarding emotion in trading ring so true, I believe that for myself and most traders a systematic model which removes the possibility to act out of fear, greed, anger, embarrassment etc give you the best chance.

importantly your comments also made me go back and look from a different perspective, I.e to focus on losses first and foremost. By focusing on cutting losses early my results have improved tremendously to appoint where my model has changed from an average one to a potentially good one.

I now only look at the ratio of my losses versus wins, and forget about the percentage of win ratios. By only winning 50 percent of my trades (455 trades so far) , but cutting my losses earlier and running winners longer my overall results have benefitted greatly and I am excited about the future for my model. Anyway, sorry to ramble on sir! I just wanted to reach out to say thank you very much and I hope you are well.

Ed Says

Thank you for sharing your process.

In general, a system does not remove your emotions from trading; it may, however, shift your emotional triggers from the behavior of individual instruments to the behavior of the overall system of instruments.

http://www.seykota.com/tt/2017/Mar/01-31/default.html

TTP - No Longer Selling Trading System

Mar 23, 2017

No Longer Selling Trading System

Hello

I have sold a trading system online since 1999

Here are some of my observations and the reason i am quitting it.

1) People won't pay for the system. A couple hundred dollars is ok but once you ask for more...no way.

2) People cannot follow your system.

3) Most people really shouldn't bother trading.

4) Since 2008..the interest in trading from the public has fallen off a cliff.

5) People want to be sold a dream. They want to make millions, fast, no risk, easy...as soon as you give them reality they lose interest.

6) You get to deal with some really nasty / trolling people. "if it is so good why sell it..." Liars, cheats, wingers....it's no way to run a business.

Well, it was an education...i wouldn't wish it on anyone

Thanks

Ed Says

Thank you for sharing your process and your observations.



http://www.seykota.com/tt/2017/Mar/01-31/default.html

TTP - Wants to Know the Best Parameters

Mar 18, 2017

Wants to Know the Best Parameters

Dear Ed,

First and foremost, I want to say that I really appreciate all that you do and the time you take to help people succeed in their trading. I have also read most of the literature and interviews of you that are found in books and other resources. Thank you so very much for everything!

I have some questions that I've been wanting to ask you:

1. What are the best types of moving averages to use on a daily chart on the S&P 500, and what duration the moving averages should be aside from the commonly used 50-day and 200-day lines?

2. What are the best technical indicators that you've found to be very useful and accurate in finding trends on the S&P 500?

Thank you very much for taking the time to consider my questions. My deepest thanks and gratitude!

Sincerely,

Ed Says

Thank you for raising this issue.

You might consider taking your feelings about <relying on authority> to Tribe as an entry point.

You might also consider running some back tests to determine what parameters suit you.



http://www.seykota.com/tt/2017/Mar/01-31/default.html

[转贴] 用小成本賺大錢!10種方法讓你成為「精頭腦」


Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Fri, 30 Jun 2017, 10:47 AM


一、不花一分錢
複製別人的項目賺錢

有一個河南的小伙,在一家超市門口看見別人搭了個簡易台子在賣集團手機充值卡,這種卡就是買100元送100元的,打電話很便宜,不過這種充值卡充的錢,只能打電話,不能發簡訊,但是也非常吸引消費者。

引起很多人圍觀,十分鐘就賣出去5張了。小伙子看這人賣得這麼快,便趁人家不忙的時候,過去打聽打聽。因為這個商場還有另外一個出口,如果這個卡很賺錢的話,可以在另外的一個出口搭個台子再賣。打聽之後得知,買卡的人也是從老闆那裡批發的,每賣出一張卡可以賺8元,人流量大的時候,1個小時能賣30張,1個小時就能賺240元。


每天這個商場人流量大的時間,也就這麼幾個小時,交完場地租金,每天還能賺1000多元。當然了,這個生意成本比較大,進貨的時候一次進了1000張。這位河南的小伙就跟他商量,讓他第二天多帶一個台子過來,再多帶一些卡,他在超市的另外一個出口幫他賣,每張只需提成5元,第二天這小伙就在超市的另外一個出口,賣了五個小時,總共賣出去100來張,就輕輕鬆鬆賺了500元。
總結:

這個生意的本質在於,看見別人賣什麼賣得好,果斷地加入,但是最好不要自己進貨,不要自己搭台子,借用別人的貨,借用別人的台子,以最小的成本,來借用別人的資源為自己賺錢。最關鍵的是,在這個過程中,別人還會告訴你一些寶貴的經驗!

以後當你走在大街小巷,看見別人賣什麼賣得好的時候,不管是人家賣首飾項鍊,還是賣鞋墊皮帶,或者是賣什麼狗皮膏藥,你都主動過去看看,看看能不能讓老闆為你墊點貨,你幫他賣,然後給他分點錢,既然人家賣得好,就一定有賣得好的道理。

大膽地借他的貨,在你們合作的時候,也是在幫他賺錢,他一定會將賣這個貨的經驗告訴你,這樣,你不光賣貨賺錢了,還學到了他的經驗,這是借雞生蛋最直接的辦法。


二、借開店人的貨 為自己賺錢

朋友開了一個鴨脖子店,但是沒有開1個月,因為沒有可觀的人流量,於是以失敗而告終,手頭的錢也不多了。有一天他突然想到,他在開鴨脖店的時候,在批發市場進貨,認識了幾個同樣也是開鴨脖店的老闆,一交談才知道,大家生意都不好做。

他在想,能不能找這些老闆進貨,賣到網吧裡面去呢,開始的時候少進點,有了熟人的關係,可以先賣貨後付款。風險也不大,關鍵是不需要自己親自製作,自己跑跑腿就行了。大家都是熟人,賣完了貨再付錢,這些鴨脖店的老闆,也很樂意多了這麼一個業務員。

於是,他買了一輛二手電動車,上各大網吧去賣鴨脖,鴨腿,鴨腸等等,賣出去多少,再給老闆分一部分利潤。那種大點的網吧,每個網吧賣出去20個鴨腿,就能掙40元,給老闆分10元,還剩30元。一天跑10家網吧,也能賺300百元。要是在勤奮點,就能多賺更多了。

再舉個例子,在一個南方的小鎮發生的故事。當然了,他們的小鎮比較大,可能相當於內地的縣城面積那麼大,這個小鎮有一個賣包子的人,天天騎著電動車,到處走到處賣,老遠都能聽到他的喇叭的聲音「饅頭,包子,山東饅頭。。。」

他的包子個頭小,但是味道特別好,價格也比較貴,3元一個包子,他至少能賺2元,一天到晚至少也得賺500以上。最後一問才知道,他自己是不起早做包子的,他也是從老闆那裡拿的貨。股權激勵與設計,找股權架構師張飛老師
總結:

開店的人開的店是死的,不能移動,都是等顧客上門,我們為何不能成為他們的腿,讓他們的產品到達應該到達的地方?以後走在大街上逛街的時候,看到你比較感興趣的店,你都想想能不能讓他們的產品加上你的腿,到達各個消費者聚集的地方。


三、不花一分錢成本狂賣 一天就賺10000多元 (適合各種農產品)

有一個人高中畢業就出去打工,覺得打工沒意思,於是就琢磨幹點什麼。一次他去菜市場買菜他找到了靈感。他發現土豆的價格居然2元一斤,而且炒出來吃的時候口感也不是很好。

在他老家,每斤還賣不到3毛錢,而且老家種的土豆都是用來餵豬的,人都不怎麼吃的,偶爾炒土豆絲吃,那種味道比城裡賣的土豆味道好多了。於是他就想了想,要是把自己老家農戶種的土豆弄出來賣到城裡,就算每斤能掙1元,也很不錯了。

於是,他先讓家裡給他郵寄了1袋土豆,找到幾家菜市場的老闆,讓這些老闆拿幾個回家炒菜吃,這些老闆一吃覺得味道比較好,主要是澱粉比較多,吃起來沒有那種「沙沙」的感覺,於是就跟這位小伙簽了進貨合同。

然後這小伙回家雇了輛車收購了一車土豆,由於都是當地人,相互認識,都答應先賣出去等回來再結款。於是,裝車之後直奔這個城市,一家一家送土豆,一天時間,就把這一車土豆賣出去了。刨去路費,就這一天,掙了10000多元。
總結:

當你老家有什麼特產,或者不是什麼特產,是普通的商品,只要價格低,而城市裡面價格高的話,都可以採用這個方法,先談好買家,再去準備貨,是個非常不錯的選擇。



四、利用餐飲行業的空檔賺錢!

大家都知道一般的中餐館是不做早餐的,一人就看中這一餐飲行業的空檔,去跟一家中餐館老闆合作,讓老闆把這間店面出租給他,並且每天付出一定的租金,從每天早上五點租到每天上午九點半,這樣跟老闆談妥了。

第二步,這人就去找一些願意供應早餐的老闆,讓他們每天早上五點準時供應豆漿,包子之類,由於這家中餐館面積挺大,座位多,他在店裡低價銷售各類早餐,儘可能滿足更多的顧客的需求,顧客量大起來了,各項成本就低了。

做好這一家之後,他就讓自己的家人來照顧這家店的生意,又另外找了一家老闆合作,乾的是同樣的事情。就這樣一家一家地幹下去,目前已經承包了五家餐館的早餐銷售。
總結:

很多資源都是浪費的,利用這些浪費了的資源,就是一條財路。網吧的空位置是浪費,酒店的空房間是浪費,客車上的空座位是浪費,服務員的空閒時間是浪費。。。。等等,只要你去找,並且把這些浪費了的資源利用起來,形成一套可以不斷盈利的商業模式,你就可以輕鬆賺錢。


五、利用淘寶規則 開不進貨的網店 狂買狂賣 不需打包,不需填單

比如你在京東看到一件商品比淘寶上同樣商品的價格低一些,那麼你就把這件商品的圖片和說明複製到你自己的淘寶店鋪上,你淘寶上的買家到你的淘寶店鋪上買了之後,你馬上到京東去購買這件商品,收貨地址寫向你買東西的人的收貨地址。向你買東西的人就能收到京東發過去的商品了。不過你要編一個好的理由來告訴買家,以免買家給你差評。

總結:

對價格敏感一點,不管是在現實生活中還是在網上,往往賺的就是那一點點差價積累出來的。


六、一手對接技術   一手對接客戶,賺兩頭

有沒有發現做房產中介的都喜歡穿西服穿襯衫。有沒有發現做保險的也喜歡穿西服穿襯衫。可是你不會做衣服啊,怎麼辦?你可以去找一家會做西裝的裁縫店,跟老闆談好價格。

然後,你去房產中介那裡跟店長談談西服定做的事宜。再然後,你到那些保險公司談談西服定做事宜。定做完西裝之後,是不是應該再來一雙皮鞋,定做完皮鞋之後,要不要再來一支上等的鞋油….不需要你投入多少本錢,投入點名片錢而已。



七、整合資源賺

在旅遊淡季,有很多環境很好的酒店生意都很差,那麼你就可以找到酒店,跟老闆談合作,你可以幫助老闆帶來很多吃飯和住宿的客戶,只需免費提供會議場地。

然後找保險公司,因為很多保險公司總在搞培訓會議,或者戶外集訓之類的活動,而且他們也需要長期租賃培訓場所,你可以將從酒店拿來的會議場所,以比很低的價格賣給培訓公司。

當然前提是培訓公司必須是2天或者3天以上的培訓,人數必須是80——100人以上!不僅能為保險公司省錢(只要培訓就要吃飯,如果是幾天的培訓可能要住宿),而且能幫助酒店帶來客源!

如果你覺得這個不能理解,那我就舉個最簡單的例子!每個城市都有很多餐館,那麼是不是每個餐館都有買菜的需求?是不是基本上是各買各家的菜?而餐館需要的什麼?無非就是要便宜嘛?

你可以找到各個餐館的老闆,將他們要買的菜集中統一採購,大家都知道,買菜這樣的物品,肯定是量越大價格越低,那你是否能夠花較低的價格買到相同品質的菜。接完餐館的訂單之後,你就可以去找菜市場的批發商,就可以以較低的價格拿到貨,然後將貨送到各個餐館。

你只賺取一個差價,你沒有任何風險!而且是需要多少訂多少貨,餐館能以較低的價格買到需要的菜,批發商也能出大量的貨,你也能從中賺差價!


八、通過對接共同需求賺錢

王先生開了一家體控理療店。起初由於人們對新生事物的不了解,生怕上當受騙,所以生意一直很冷清。體控理療是什麼?其實很多人都是第一次聽說。體控理療就是一種集保健、美容、治療於一體的新型理療方法,效果非常的不錯。為了儘快拓展市場,王先生開展了許多促銷方法。如:散發名片、開展免費體驗、價格優惠等方法,但收效甚微。

有一天,王先生突然想起了不久前的一件事。一個朋友給他一張「合理膳食」的科普宣傳圖。上面圖文並茂的寫有「40種不能搭配同吃的食物」、「不同疾病徵候人群食物」等知識。隨著生活水平不斷提高,人們的健康意識越來越強,而「合理膳食」又是人人用得上,家家必備之物。

於是,為了便於保存、攜帶和查閱,王先生將這張宣傳圖改編成了五開的小冊子。小冊子設計得非常漂亮,封面上方是三口之家的人物圖片,下方印著「合理膳食,均衡營養」八個醒目大字;封底上印成居家服務常備電話,如:清潔公司、搬家公司、電腦維修公司、理療服務等。

當客戶將有價值的資料保存下來後,就有了為對方服務的機會,那自然就能賺到錢!


九、雞蛋煮一煮也能年賺千萬!

一台灣的朋友,從台灣回來。他給我分享了一個他朋友做的營銷的案例。他說他朋友在前年,欠了2000萬台幣,傾家蕩產了。去年上半年,把錢還上去了。就很奇怪,這傢伙在幹什麼,這麼快就賺了錢。

後來一打聽,說這傢伙在賣雞蛋。想一下更奇怪了,雞蛋半年能賺2000萬,怎麼賣雞蛋的?台灣就這麼大,2400萬人口,天天給你塞一個也不行啊。後來知道他在一個溫泉,旅遊景點賣雞蛋。

他們就開了一個車,叫了幾個朋友一起去看一下。暗訪一下怎麼賣雞蛋半年賺2000萬的。跑到那裡一看,那裡有一個大的招牌「溫泉蛋」三個字。號稱用當地最好的溫泉煮出來的,非常好吃,有保健功效,包裝得很漂亮。很長的隊,排隊去買。

快排到的時候嚇了一跳,他發現他前面的人每個人不是買200個就是買300個,甚至買400、500個都有。這是煮熟的雞蛋啊,這麼賣怎麼得了?我們四五個人跑過來,就算一個人吃五個,五個人也才吃25個。跑進去一看才知道,那些人付了錢在那裡留名單、留地址、留聯繫電話。交了錢就拍拍屁股走了,沒人拿著雞蛋走。

真正拿雞蛋走的沒幾個,買得少的才自己提著。後來排到他了,一吃才發現這雞蛋真好吃。沒吃過這麼好吃的雞蛋。雞蛋中間的溏心還沒有硬,然後味道那個香味已經進入到雞蛋中心區裡面去了。

用什麼煮的不曉得,確實非常好吃。賣多少錢?一個相當於人民幣2塊錢。我們都知道雞蛋在大陸來講,5毛錢的成本。賣2塊錢是不是很賺?然後他回來就講,怎麼可以賣這麼多呢?很簡單,定位不一樣。他的定位很簡單,當地是旅遊景點,每天有好幾千人去他那裡旅遊,他把它定位成禮品。就是模擬腦白金的方法,變成禮品。去那邊旅遊的人,都需要幹嘛?買禮品回去,對不對?

買禮品有幾個障礙點?第一個,太貴了,承受不了。太便宜了,送不出手。所以溫泉蛋是唯一台灣特色。很便宜。2塊錢一個,一盒20個才40塊錢。這個送出去既不降低檔次,又這麼差異化,所以很容易送給自己的親朋好友。送禮品還有一個方法。你去外面旅遊,你會提幾十盒東西回來送禮嗎?所以說他幫你消除了這個問題。他直接找一個快遞公司幫你寄。

你回到家裡,蛋也到家裡了。到你朋友的家裡,以你的名義,有一個標準的送雞蛋的信。你出去旅遊,40塊錢買一份非常超值的禮物,送給你朋友,這個有沒有障礙?一切都滿足需求。所以那些旅遊團每天都有人去那裡簽字。所有記得的朋友都會寄,為什麼?因為太便宜了。


十、蛋糕店生意紅火的秘密 完全可以引用到其他行業

我們先考慮下蛋糕是需要過生日才需要訂購,如果不過生日,是不是很少人去訂購蛋糕。那麼,你首先要考慮的是如何知道客戶的生日。那麼買蛋糕的是什麼人?肯定是壽星的朋友或者親人,對吧?那麼我們如何獲取客戶的生日信息呢?

第一種,你可以以打折的方式告訴客戶,來購買你其他的小點心,然後,讓他們填寫自己的出生年月日以及電話姓名,告訴他們填寫的好處,這個地方一定要想很好的理由讓他們填寫,因為他們認為填寫對他們有好處才會填,所以,他們填寫的一定是很真實的,不會以假亂真。

然後告訴他們如果你能填寫你家人、同事、朋友等一至兩個人的生日,電話聯繫方式,我們就贈你半斤點心或一斤都可以,(主要自己設計,控制成本)這樣,你通過打折的宣傳,吸引了很多的人來購買你們店裡的任意一款產品,只要來一個人,你一般就能收到三個客戶的名單,算著他的家屬親戚。這樣假如一天來30客人,你也許就能抓到100個客戶名單,這些人你都知道他們的電話,生日和姓名。

如果一天按50個潛在客戶來算,一個月下來你將會抓到1500個名單,每天都會有人過生日,以發短息或打電話的方式來進行促銷蛋糕,送貨上門,貨到付款。

由於你是本店的老客戶,給你打八折(先把價格提高點,再降價)這樣一直循環,用小點心作為前期抓潛。來一個客戶,抓三個客戶。後期來促銷蛋糕,這樣你會有永不斷續的客戶,凡是來買蛋糕的人,你都可以留下他們的聯繫方式,後面進行促銷。生意一定火爆。

你還可以做學生的市場,學生喜歡過生日,找到學校的老師或聯繫人,通過一種方法把所有的學生的聯繫方式拿到手,學校一定有,包括住址電話、生日都有。這樣你的市場更大,因為每個學生現在都喜歡過生日,所以你不用擔心沒有客戶。

最後你不需要自己做蛋糕你找十個員工專門送蛋糕。找幾家做蛋糕做的比較好的,跟他們談判,說我每天都要訂購很多的蛋糕,你給我一個最優.惠的價格,這樣你什麼也不用幹了,只進行對這些客戶進行促銷就可以了。到最後你可以做成一個蛋糕配送中心,只要這些人想過生日,問他想定什麼樣的蛋糕,哪家蛋糕,你都能做到,只管聯繫這些業務,專人配送。
這就是所謂的生意頭腦阿
要懂得觀察身邊的事物
先從學習開始
最後你也能有一番成績!

http://imtopsales.com/view1/?p=10565

Wood-based Manufacturing - Favourable Move for Furniture Players

Author: HLInvest | Publish date: Fri, 30 Jun 2017, 11:10 AM
Highlights

Rubberwood export ban. The government announced that it will ban the exports of rubberwood effective 1 Jul 2017, to address the shortage of raw materials faced by Malaysia’s furniture industry.

Malaysia’s rubberwood exports have grown by a CAGR of 13.9% from 2010-2016 (Figure 1). Apart from rising rubberwood exports, we note that the rise in rubberwood prices YTD was also driven by less-than-favourable weather condition, which has resulted in rubberwood shortage and higher rubberwood prices YTD. This has, in turn, resulted in higher production cost among the wood-manufacturing players in Malaysia.

All-in-all, we opine that the latest development is positive to wood-based manufacturers in Malaysia, as the ban on rubberwood will alleviate supply shortage of rubberwood in the country, hence easing the raw material cost pressure.

Outlook remains bright in 2H17. We believe earnings prospects of the wood-based manufacturing players remain bright in 2H17, underpinned mainly by continued weakness in MYR (as bulk of the players’ earnings are denominated in US$) and lower raw material cost (as the supply of rubberwood will now increase domestically).

Evergreen: We continue to remain positive on Evergreen mainly on the back of its turnaround plan and the commissioning of the second RTA line. The sustained US$ strength (ringgit weakness) will directly contribute to the topline positively.

Homeritz: We continue to remain positive on Homeritz as the company is still on expansion mode. We believe that sustained US$ strength (ringgit weakness) will provide a favourable environment for Homeritz to mitigate rising cost of doing business.

Catalysts

Strengthening of the greenback (further tightening by the US Fed).
Firmer global economic growth.

Risks
1) Sharper-than-expected ringgit appreciation, 2) Escalating raw materials and labour cost, 3) Weaker than expected export demand, and 4) Trade protectionism.
Rating

OVERWEIGHT ↔

We have an OVERWEIGHT rating on the sector, having a view on subsiding raw material cost. We believe that strong USD trend will provide a favourable environment for the wood product exporters to mitigate rising cost of doing business.

Top Picks
We maintain our BUY recommendation on Evergreen with a TP of RM1.05 (based on 11x FY17 core EPS 9.6 sen).
Reiterate our BUY recommendation on Homeritz with a TP of RM1.18 (based on 11x CY18 core EPS 10.7 sen).

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 30 Jun 2017

AmInvestment Research retains Overweight on banks, RHB Bank top pick

Friday, 30 June 2017 | MYT 9:03 AM

AmInvest Research's Buy call on RHB Bank is premised on the stock's undemanding valuation, improvement in the outlook of its non-interest income from stronger capital market activities as well as lower provisions

KUALA LUMPUR: AmInvestment Bank Research is maintaining its Overweight stance on the banking sector.

It said on Friday its stock picks are RHB Bank (fair value: RM6 a share), Public Bank (fair value: RM22.30) and Hong Leong Bank (fair value: RM15.20).

“Our Buy call on RHB Bank is premised on the stock's undemanding valuation, improvement in the outlook of its non-interest income from stronger capital market activities as well as lower provisions.

“On Public Bank, it is based on its strong asset quality and high level of regulatory reserves which will be beneficial to offset against the higher provisions under MFRS 9 if allowed by the regulatory authority.

“Meanwhile, for Hong Leong Bank, we like the stock due to its strong asset quality, improving earnings contribution from its associate, Bank of Chengdu after the heavy provisioning earlier and commendable improvement in net interest margin (NIM) with disciplined loan pricing and active management of funding cost,” it said.

AmInvestment Research projects the sector's core earnings to grow by 8.6% on-year in 2017 from a flat earnings growth in 2016.

“The improvement in earnings is anticipated to be driven by higher non-interest income from a stronger capital market and lower provisions for loan losses.

“The improvement in capital market activities will bode well for non-interest income of banks. We anticipate a gradual improvement in provisions of banks as external economic conditions are expected to turn better progressively,” it said.

The research house maintained its loan growth expectation for the industry of 5.0%-6.0% for 2017.

Underpinning the growth outlook would be a modest growth in retail loans especially in mortgage loans for affordable homes and improvement in business loans from infrastructure, higher exports and firmer commodity prices.

“Our loan growth projection is on the back on a domestic GDP expansion of 5.0% for 2017. This will translate into a loan-to-GDP multiplier of between 1.0 times and 1.2 times.

“We are seeing improvement in the demand for business loans. Domestically, business loans have picked up pace in March and April 2017, and this is positive on the industry's loans,” it said.
Most banks reported better net interest margins (NIMs) in 1Q2017, mainly from management of liquidity and due to lower funding cost.

Nevertheless, competition for deposits is likely to remain keen in 2H2017. In 2H2017, AmInvestment Research continues to expect a mild pressure on banks' NIM, as banks are still offering higher rates for longer-term deposits in preparation for the implementation of net stable funding ratio requirement in 2018.

“For 2017, we project a lower NIM contraction of 3bps in 2017 compared to 4bps in 2016,” it said.

AmInvestment Research’s view is that liquidity for the sector is expected to gradually improve as seen from the recent stronger deposit growth in the sector with an improvement in momentum for business deposits.

Also, banks are doing well in regards to current account/ savings account (CASA) growth with CASA ratios continuing to trend higher. All these are anticipated to lead to a more stable NIM for banks in 2018.

“For 2H2017, we maintain our view that the asset yield of banks is expected to remain stable as the overnight policy rate (OPR) is likely to be maintained at 3.00%. Our house view is that the OPR is most likely to stay unchanged with only a modest chance of an increase of 25bps in 4Q2017 as a result of negative returns due to the inflation growth,” it said.

Currently, there are some upticks in the gross impaired-loan (GIL) ratio for banks in 1Q2017, coming from a mixture of business and retail loan portfolio.

Nevertheless, on an overall basis, the asset quality of the domestic loans is still considered to be stable with a GIL ratio of 1.7%.

“We expect this to be sustained moving into 2H2017. For the overseas operations of banks, we expect a gradual improvement in asset quality. We project a lower credit cost of 0.30% for the sector in 2017 compared to 0.36% in 2016. Moving into 2018, we forecast a further improvement in the sector's credit cost to 0.28%.

“In 2H2017, we expect banks to provide more guidance on the impact of the implementation of MFRS 9. As highlighted in our earlier note, on day 1 of the implementation of the new accounting standard, any increase in provisions from MFRS 9 will be charged directly to banks' shareholders' funds, possibly with some impact on banks' CET1 ratios,” it said.

AmInvestment Research said the yield of bonds has been trending lower with purchases supported by institutional investors.

It viewed this as positive on the interest cost of banks with potentially positive impact from marked-to-market gains on investment securities.

For 2017, it expects the sector’s return on equity (ROE) to trend lower to 10.7% from 11.1% in 2016 and 12.0% in 2015. Thereafter, in 2018 and 2019, it anticipates the sector's ROE to stabilise between 10.0% and 11.0%.

“To sum up, our overweight stance on the sector is premised on: 1) a positive momentum for loan growth with business loans improving; 2) stable asset quality trend for domestic loans while that for overseas operations is improving; 3) signs of better outlook for capital market activities; 4) ROE of banks to be more stable ahead, between 10.0% and 11.0%; and 5) gradual improvement in provisions and earnings of banks moving forward as external economic conditions are expected to turn better progressively,” it said.

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/06/30/aminvestment-research-retains-overweight-on-banks-rhb-bank-top-pick/#o22gqHqFePMhspUu.99

周顯:食住花生看集體暴跌供股

文章日期:2017年6月30日

【明報專訊】對於細價股災,由於我們一伙人並沒持有這條line的股票,自然是食花生看好戲,大事評論。事實上,由於「粉先生」不做「香港散戶retail」的商業模式,因此散戶的參與有限、受傷程度也有限。不過,當大量股票大跌了五成至九成幾時,的確也有不少本地散戶加入,博其反彈,有的人贏錢,有的人輸錢,然而,這些股票已經散到一街都係,不在話下。

證監不能同時「勒令」幾十隻股票停牌

如果股票派到散晒,通常的做法就是「供股供番齊」,但又是如果有一隻出事的股票突然停牌供股,自投羅網,監管當局老實不客氣,必定乘機大問特問,沒有三幾年都不可能復牌,例子太多,不能盡錄。

然而,如果是20隻股票一齊停牌,申請供股,莫不成監管當局會同時不准20隻股票復牌?這好比周二那天,某隻老千股大跌九成,監管當局可以馬上勒令停牌調查,但是幾十隻股票一齊暴跌,則不可能同時「勒令」幾十隻股票停牌。

由於某幾隻暴跌的股票,居然有供股的傳聞,我們這班花生友,既是驚訝,又是好笑,大事討論,作為「學術研究」。某君笑說:「要知道,這個人不是大膽,而是大到根本連膽也沒有用,我都好奇,究竟他會用什麼方法應付這次危機。」

不過,很多人同他通過電話,他都表現出得鎮定,據我所知,他雖然傷勢不輕,但並沒有損害到老本,以他慣常的作風,和監管機構死過,也是不無可能的事。

記得3年前,他的股票隻隻爆升,我們從來不敢沾手,十分後悔,但現在,則又慶幸從來沒沾手過這系列的股票了。世事真奇怪!

[周顯 投資二三事]

http://www.mpfinance.com/fin/columnist2.php?col=1463481127012&node=1498761428502&issue=20170630

湯文亮:千金難買少年窮

文章日期:2017年6月30日

【明報專訊】好彩我的子女已經有自己的住宅單位,否則今日叫我替他們付首期買樓,如果我不依照他們的說話,根據星展梁兆基所講,我就是罪人。

梁較早前對傳媒話,現在樓價無關年輕人的收入,是與他們的父母的儲蓄有關,做父母的應該支持他們的子女買樓。換句話說,如果有積蓄但沒有支持子女買樓的父母就是「罪人」,最少是他們子女的「罪人」,即使做父母的沒有積蓄,可以向銀行加按手上接近供滿的物業,如果早已供滿就更加簡單,只要去銀行再申請按揭便可以。

不過,梁兆基究竟有沒有考慮到,當子女要置業,做父母的年紀亦不小,儲蓄就是他們能夠安享晚年的保證金。現在,梁先生的說話令做父母的變成大反派,甚至會令不少家庭出現摩擦,唔知道他在發言前有沒有慎重考慮,抑或是隨便說說?作為一個銀行家,說話不能夠不負責任,我絕對同意做父母的幫助子女置業,但首先是父母自己願意,其次是子女有能力以後維持每月供款,就算父母唔願意幫忙,亦不能怪責父母。

「想有富爸爸」心態已輸

我認為梁先生首先要考慮的是己所不欲,勿施於人,如果他的子女要求他幫助買樓,他是否能夠做到。以梁先生年紀,他的子女應該未夠年齡買樓,而做他的子女就有福了,將來絕對不用擔心沒有樓宇,父親一定會買樓給他們,如果梁先生做唔到,現在就千祈唔好提,他的子女會銘記於心,夠年齡就會問父親攞錢買樓,他們會認為這是應得的,甚至是他們的權利。

我們經常聽到其他人說千金難買少年窮,少年時代家裏經濟環境不好,就會多些歷練,所以,李嘉誠先生在汕頭大學演講時話,有一個想有富爸爸的心態就即是已輸在起跑線,即是少了這分歷練,究竟我們應該相信梁先生抑或李先生?

紀惠集團行政總裁

[湯文亮 敢說亮話]

http://www.mpfinance.com/fin/columnist2.php?col=1463481149913&node=1498761429079&issue=20170630

曾淵滄:金茂酒店房託背景雄厚

文章日期:2017年6月30日

【明報專訊】試過兩年前的港股「大時代」之後,香港股民對「細價股」、「垃圾股」、「老千股」、「莊家股」的興趣已經很淡,多數股民早已忍痛沽清這類股份,仍未沽清者也已輸到麻木,因此,過去幾天所發生的洗倉事件,對大市、對香港股民影響不大,多數人在看戲,極少數人博一博膽量,玩即日鮮博反彈,戲還未完,就繼續看吧!

大市不斷反覆,不過,反覆的只是二線強勢股,一線強勢股,即那些在過去幾個月不斷創新高的強勢股依然保持強勢,在大市反覆過程中依然能不斷創新高。昨日大幅上升的本地銀行股,就是一線強勢股,早已經不斷地創新高。

投資高息信託 留意持續派息能力

股神巴菲特開始買美國的房託,引起了全世界投資者對房託的興趣,在香港,最出名而且股價能不斷上升的房託自然是領展(0823)。不過,若論收股息,則是兩家酒店信託的股息最高,這兩家酒店信托是金茂酒店(6139)及朗廷(1270),股息率分別高達8.87厘及7.88厘。當然,要留意股息率之所以這麼高,可能是因為股價下跌。因此,在考慮投資高息信託時,另一個更重要的考慮因素是檢查其派息能力及估計將來的派息能力。作為信託股,賺到的利潤一般會全部派發,因此,酒店信託的派息也直接與旅遊、經濟有直接的關係。

過去我曾推薦過朗廷,理由就是高息,在去年初朗廷處於低價時,其股息率高達10厘,目前降至7.88厘正是因為股價上升了,而金茂酒店的股價即仍然低位徘徊,好處是其2016年可分派的股息金額是高於2015年。展望中國經濟復蘇,過去幾年酒店產能過剩的問題也該逐步解決,近9厘的股息應該成為股價有力的防線。此外,一提起金茂,無人不會聯想到上海的金茂大廈,這幢大廈曾經是上海最高大樓,至今仍是最主要的地標之一,當年誰在浦東取地建金茂大廈?原來是中央國企中化集團。

具央企背景 開發條件勝同業

一談起石油集團,人人想起「三桶油」,即中石油(0857)、中石化(0386)和中海油(0883),實際上還有一家實力與三桶油差不多的中化集團。中化集團是由從前中國政府的石油進出口貿易公司演化而來,不過現今已經變成多元化企業,在香港有一家搞地產的上市公司,那就是中國金茂(0817)

有央企中化的背景,金茂在取得土地開發的條件比其他地產公司強,金茂甚至可以承包地方政府土地的一級開發工程,即由金茂出資進行拆遷,土地平整工作及進行土地公開招標的工作,一級開發不必繳交土地增值稅,利潤率更高,昨日股價已創兩年新高,準備挑戰「大時代」時的高價。

大學教授

[曾淵滄 滄海明珠]

http://www.mpfinance.com/fin/columnist2.php?col=1463481132566&node=1498761428892&issue=20170630

Thursday, June 29, 2017

Tasco expects cold chain logistic operation to bring in extra revenue of RM100m

Author: moneyKing | Publish Date: 29 Jun 2017, 7:39 PM
theedgemarkets.com/theedgemarkets.com
June 29, 2017 19:34 pm MYT

SHAH ALAM (June 29): Tasco Bhd expects its foray into the cold chain logistics segment to boost its 2017 (FY17) revenue by an additional RM100 million, following shareholder approval for its acquisition of Gold Cold Transport (GCT) and Westport land.

This will bring its revenue for the year to around RM700 million, said Tasco’s executive chairman Lee Check Poh after the group’s extraordinary general meeting here today.

GCT, which Tasco is buying for RM186.08 million cash, is expected to begin registering contribution once the acquisition is completed in July. Meanwhile, the acquisition of 39.52 acres of land in Pulau Indah for RM113.83 million will contribute to revenue by year-end, said Tasco’s managing director Freddie Lee Jew Kiat.

Synergies are expected to be gained by selling Tasco’s sea freight and air freight services to GCT, a combined consumer and industrial focus, and shared geographical markets, explained the company’s executive director Andy Lee, who is also the head of the supply chain solutions division.

According to Freddie, the current cold chain warehouse is running at full capacity and Tasco will look into building a second or third warehouse depending on specific customer demands.

“Our focus for the Westport land is to make it a regional hub. We would like to promote it to existing customers,” he said.

There was close to unanimous approval for both resolutions from shareholders for the two acquisitions.

Separately, the group will also be launching a new global distribution hub at the former LCCT site in Sepang that will include “pick-and-pack” facilities to cater to Renesas Electronics Corp, a Japanese semiconductor manufacturer, said Check Poh.

The opening ceremony for the site will be held next week and it will make Tasco the biggest warehouse operator in the area with a total of four warehouses, said Andy.

Shares in Tasco rose six sen or 2.52% to RM2.44 as the EGM commenced, giving the counter a market capitalisation of RM488 million. A total of 525,000 shares were traded by market close.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/tasco-expects-cold-chain-logistic-operation-bring-extra-revenue-rm100m

Kim Loong's 1Q net profit doubles to RM24.3m on higher plantation revenue

Author: moneyKing | Publish Date: 29 Jun 2017, 7:17 PM
Sangeetha Amarthalingam/theedgemarkets.com

June 29, 2017 18:49 pm MYT

KUALA LUMPUR (June 29): Kim Loong Resources Bhd's net profit almost doubled to RM24.3 million for the first quarter ended April 30, 2017 (1QFY18) from RM12.4 million a year earlier, on higher contribution from its plantation operations.

Revenue climbed 44% to RM255.7 million from RM177.7 million in 1QFY17, Kim Loong said in a filing with Bursa Malaysia today, adding that earnings per share rose to 7.81 sen from 3.99 sen.

The group's plantation operations saw revenue jump 97% during the quarter while profit shot up 295% to RM34.3 million due to increased fresh fruit bunches (FFB) production and price.

FFB production rose 68% to 88,300 tonnes from 52,500 tonnes in 1QFY17 because of substantial contribution by its Keningau estates in Sabah which showed a 90% increase.

Kim Loong added that it did not face difficulty selling its FFB production as most of the produce was supplied to its mills, while the average FFB price was about 17% higher.

As for its palm oil milling operations, profit fell 23% to RM6.3 million due to lower oil extraction rate and stiff competition for crops that resulted in a margin squeeze despite processing higher quantities.

Moving forward, Kim Loong foresees an increase in FFB production from young mature areas and strong FFB yield recovery in Keningau, where some 50% of its planted mature area is located.

It expects its FFB production for FY18 to be 20% higher compared with FY17.

As for crude palm oil (CPO) production, Kim Loong said despite stiff competition from surrounding mills, it aims to achieve FFB intake of 1.2 million tonnes, up from 1.15 million tonnes in FY17.

"Subject to the ringgit fluctuation and volatility of the commodity market, we expect the prospect of CPO price to be positive and good. We expect the group's performance for FY18 to be satisfactory," it added.

Kim Loong's share price closed up two sen or 0.53% at RM3.82, for a market capitalisation of RM1.2 billion.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/kim-loongs-1q-net-profit-doubles-rm243m-higher-plantation-revenue

【股神的精闢分析】從巴菲特的 20 條對答,看成功的企業家該具備哪些綜觀時事的能力

Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Thu, 29 Jun 2017, 03:11 PM
2016/11/25




【為什麼我們挑選這篇文章】上禮拜五(11/18)巴菲特和來自耶魯、康乃爾等其他 8 所大學的學生面對面談話,這裡整理了 20 個問題,可以看出巴菲特對各類議題的見解、掌握程度。

一個企業家如果能做到像巴菲特這樣關注各種時事,或對議題有自己的獨到解析,這些見解是會成為企業在面對不同狀況時,能夠因應危機的能力。(責任編輯:張瑋倫)

86 歲的沃倫·巴菲特於 2016 年 11 月 18 日與 20 名來自包括耶魯、康乃爾等在內的 8 所大學的學生見面對話。在兩個半小時的對話時間內他回答了 20 個問題。

在回答問題前,巴菲特提到他的聽力不如從前。他說,最近有一次他站在房間的另一頭,對查理·芒格(92 歲)(CM)說:「我們在 33 元的價格買入通用汽吧(Let’s buy General Motors at 33, do you agree)?」

芒格沒有反應,他靠近了一點,又說了一次。仍然沒有反應。 然後他走到芒格身邊,再重複說了一次。芒格回答:「我已經回答兩次了!這是第三次回答:好的!」

巴菲特還邀請所有在場學生參加伯克希爾在奧馬哈的年度會議。「由於伯克希爾買了航空公司股票,」他說,「你們應該做頭等艙去參會」。

下面是他對 20 個問題的回答。

問題 1:你在招聘時最看重候選人的什麼特質?

巴:伯克希爾總部只有 25 個人,但是它總共有 36 萬名員工。伯克希爾 70 家企業的經理們選擇自己想要的人。他們所看重的品質是聰明、精力充沛和正直。但是作為經理人最重要的是對所從事業務充滿激情。使伯克希爾的 70 位經理脫穎而出的,不是智商 IQ,而是對他們事業的激情。

我在 23 歲時找工作,曾經被 Ben Graham 拒絕。幾年後,我收到他的一封信:「下次你到紐約的時候,來我的辦公室坐坐。」我第二天就過去了。我從來沒有問過工資的事情。你應該從事的工作是: 當你無需工作時,仍然想做的事情 。

問題 2:標準普爾 500 指數的公司裡,變得越來越好的公司有多少?

巴:我是 19 家上市公司的董事會成員。3G 資本增加了對 Kraft Heinz 和 Anheuser Busch InBev 的投資。Jeff Bezos 是我見過的最好的生意人。管理質量在提高,管理層的薪酬也更好。CEO 的主要職責是資本分配(以賺取利潤)。董事們的薪水現在約為 30-40 萬美元,但董事一般不起作用。Berkshire 的董事用現金購買伯克希爾的股票(而不是大多數公司使用的授予股票期權的方式)。

問題 3:你擔心國債的規模嗎?

巴:美國的總負債是 GDP 的 100%,但淨負債(減去信託基金)會少點,佔 GDP 的 70%。我們的淨負債在第二次世界大戰中高達 GDP 的 120%,在裡根時代低至 35%-38%。只要我們的債務是美元,它不會導致我們任何問題(我們可以總是印刷更多的美元)。

稅收佔 GDP 的 16% – 20%。今天的醫療成本佔 GDP 的 17%,高於 1970 年的 5%。而第二高國家在醫療保健上只佔國內生產總值的 11%。(美國)公司稅等於 GDP 的 2%,低於過去的 4%。

問題 4:關於 Joe Rosenfeld

巴菲特多年以來是 Grinnell 學院的受託人,Joe Rosenfeld 在 Grinnell 是巴菲特的英雄。(巴菲特也提到,我們一生中做的最重要的決定是選擇配偶。「如果你想要一個長久的婚姻,娶(嫁)一個有低期望的人。」)

問題 5:你對主動管理和被動管理的看法是什麼?

巴:總的來說,被動管理就是主動管理。標普 500 代表美國的總體發展成果。九年前,巴菲特針用 100 萬美元(用於慈善)打賭 Vanguard S&P 500 的表現比一隻 FOF(對沖基金的基金)更好。結果標準普爾 500 指數的表現顯著超過這只對沖基金的 FOF。

對沖基金總回報的一半已經流向基金管理人,並且他們的表現遜於指數達 40%。基金經理越來越有錢,投資者卻遭到損失。找到良好管理的公司,讓他們長期成長。這是被動的方法。購買並持有。

成功的投資者需要有正確的大局觀。高 IQ 的人經常恐慌。

問題 6:你對多德-弗蘭克法案怎麼看?


巴:我們今天處理金融危機的手段空間不如 2008 年。我們在 2008 年遭遇了金融危機。多德-弗蘭克法案已經奪走了美聯儲在危機中採取行動的能力。

在 2008 年 9 月本. 伯南克說他將做任何事情,並且只有他能夠停止金融危機。現在貨幣市場基金規模已經達到 3.5 萬億美元,這個數字是美國銀行 7 萬億美元存款的 50%。 這可能是有史以來的最大規模。

本伯南克能夠從 1933 年設立的緊急穩定基金中獲得黃金。2008 年,喬治·布什總統說出了也許是經濟史上十個最重要的單詞:「如果市場仍然沒錢,(本. 伯南克)就下台。」(If money doesn’t loosen up, this sucker is going down.)。

但多德- 弗蘭克法案把美聯儲的權利收回了。恐懼是持續性的,信心卻是一點點回來,而不是連續的。通用電氣和高盛都是「多米諾骨牌」上的一個環節。我們很幸運,我們有最好的人民。

問題 7:固定收益市場對股票有什麼影響?

巴:利率之於資產的估值,好比引力之於質量。在股票價格過高之前,將會有許多利率變動。30 年國債的利率從 1982 年的 14.5%下降到到 2016 年的 2.5%。最近 30 年期國債從 2.6%上升至 2.8%。如果長期利率保持在 4%,股票是便宜的(從現在起四至五年)。「我們每天購買股票比賣出多,知道利率變得更高」。

有利可圖的交易將是賣出 30 年期債券,並買入標準普爾 500(假設無需追加保證金)。但這很難做到大規模。借錢交易比任何事情更容易使人破產。芒格說過,聰明人「因為酒,女人和槓桿(liquor、ladies and leverage)」破產。

(注:問題 8 巴菲特沒有回答。)

問題 9:為什麼巴菲特不投資科技公司?

巴:Ted(Weschler)與 Todd(Combs)(這兩位都是 Berkshire 的基金經理)各管理 90 億美元的資金。他們投資了蘋果。蘋果用戶對蘋果體系內提供的產品著迷。我在自己的能力範圍內具有投資上的競爭優勢(不包括技術公司)。隨著時間的推移,我的投資眼界變得更加寬廣,但是在圈子之外,科技圈子的人了解得比他多。

巴菲特提到,他沒有投資微軟,即使微軟的產品(windows 等)完全沒有生產成本,而且微軟因為壟斷操作系統而極為賺錢。

問題 10:有哪些基本(投資)智慧是你不同意的?

巴:長久以來,投資並沒有太大的變化。Ben Grahams 的班級(哥倫比亞大學,巴菲特也是哥倫比亞大學的 MBA 學生)裡有 15 個學生。我的關注的是 2-3 年的現金流和確定回報。股票是具有票息的債券。

Berkshire Hathaway 是具有票息的股票。幾年前我投資了 15 個韓國公司,賣掉的時候賺了兩倍的收益。除了這些公司的估值很低是確定的以外,我對這些公司所知並不多。當時我做了分散投資,獲得了非常不錯的結果。如果你投資了好公司,那麼你就無需分散投資。任何 IQ 超過 130 的人都應該在那個價位賣出股票。

問題 11:如果你今天以一百萬美元開始,你會怎麼投資呢?

巴:(幽默)「如果我現在只有一百萬美元,那麼肯定什麼地方出了大問題」。今天,用一百萬美元,我和芒格可能將這些錢投資在四隻股票上。當我從哥倫比亞大學(MBA)畢業的時候,將資金淨值的 75%投資在 Geico 中(當時叫做政府僱員保險公司)。

在 1956 年用 10.5 萬美元開始投資,到 1969/70 結束合夥企業的時候,資金達 1.05 億美元(增長 1000 倍)。

問題 12: 你會欣賞別人的哪些素質?

巴:選擇那些(在你的朋友和同學中,這個人的賺錢能力如此之強)你會想要得到他未來賺的錢的 10%的人。那些很有幽默感、你會想由他們來領導的人。

問題 13:你對高頻交易有什麼看法?

巴:高頻交易不會給世界帶來任何東西。它不會傷害到 Berkshire。我建議收點交易稅。

問題 14:中央銀行(的行為)對股票市場有哪些影響?

巴:央行已經降低利率,對全球產生了影響。歐洲需要負利率。10 年前,美聯儲的資產負債 1 兆美元,今天是 4 兆美元。如果可以重生,我想當美聯儲主席。美聯儲是美國財政部的第四大收入來源。

它去年向美國財政部支付了 1170 億美元的股息。它是有史以來最大的對沖基金。其淨資產為 4 至 5 兆美元,其中包括 2.5 兆美元的國債,美聯儲承擔超過 3%的美國收入。中央銀行從未如此重要,也沒有人知道這種情況(負利率)接下會怎樣發展。哪裡有混亂,哪裡就有機會。

問題 15:你對 Tim Sloan(富國銀行新任 CEO)怎麼看?

巴:整個三分之一美國都與富國銀行(WFC)有業務往來。雖然 WFC(出了問題)破壞了某些信任,但是從現在開始一年內儲戶的數量仍然會增加。其資產負債表為 1 – 2 萬億美元。前首席執行官 John Stumpf 創建了一個影響不良的激勵制度。他本應該迅速反應,但並沒有。

1989 年 Salomon Brothers 的 John Gutfreund 的反應也慢了。出現問題是,人們應該迅速面對。「準確定位問題,迅速獲知問題,然後解決問題」(「Get it right, get it fast, get it over」.)。WFC 終將做的很好。Berkshire 沒有賣出 WFC 的股票。芒格說:「一盎司的預防比一噸的治療更有價值。」

問題 16:Ajit Jain 和保險的問題


1950 年一月份的一個星期六的早晨,當巴菲特乘坐火車從紐約到 Washington,DC 拜訪 Geico.,他是幸運的。因為他的偶像 Ben Graham 是 Geico 的主席,巴菲特想盡可能多地學習。他敲了門,出來的是一個看門人。他並不知道,華盛頓的人們在星期六的時候是不上班的(跟在奧馬哈一樣)。

巴菲特問:除了你還有其他人在嗎?幸運的是,一個叫做 Lorimar Davidson 的高管(這個人後來成為首席執行官)就在那裡,然後他花了接下來的 3-4 個小時向巴菲特解釋了保險業務。

這改變了巴菲特的生活軌跡。1967 年 Berkshire 買下了 National Indemnity。1986 年的一個星期六 Ajit Jain 走進了他的辦公室。30 年後的今天,Ajit 管理著 Berkshire 的再保險業務,每天都和巴菲特交談。Ajit「每個小時都有新創意」(9/11 之後),而 Geico 從 1936 年之後就沒有改變過。

十年後 Ajit 的業務將與今天非常不同。在 Berkshire,假如哪位僱員能成功預測哪 16 支球隊將會進入 NCAA March Madness 的「甜蜜 16 強」,那麼公司將會每年支付他 100 萬美元直到他死亡。Geico 的平均保單是 1700 美元/年。一些 Geico 員工的保單電話銷售能力是其他人的四倍。「當你和客戶在打電話的時候,在你的桌子上放一張你最愛的人的照片,然後用你和那個人交談的方式去交談。」

問題 17:科技的發展是否會取代人類智慧?

巴:技術擺脫不了人類基因裡的恐懼和貪婪。你不能給電腦編程來產生持續的競爭優勢,也不能為員工創造激情。Berkshire 現在並不處於劣勢。相比計算機,巴菲特更喜歡 Ted(Weschler)和 Todd(Combs)。

問題 18:巴菲特所犯的最大錯誤是什麼,從中學到了什麼?

巴菲特最初的三項業務現在已經破產了——(1)Berkshire Hathaway-紡織品業務,(2)Blue Chip Stamps,以及(3)Retail division——位於 Baltimore 的百貨商店。

他犯了一些「人」(僱傭)方面的錯誤。他工作最糟糕的部分就是不得不解僱一個員工。巴菲特最遺憾的是「那些即使我做了充分的調查,但也沒有做、最終錯過的事」。(Errors of omission rather than errors of commission)

問題 19:為什麼 Berkshire 投資航空公司?巴菲特會避免投資週期性行業嗎?


巴菲特不會討論他最近的投資。但是他在美國 Air Preferred(1989)上損失了一大筆錢。有段時間他的股票 25 分美元都賣不出去,但是後面幾年後以 2 美元賣出,賺了一大筆。

通常較小的倉位(10 億美元以下)就是 Ted 的或者是 Todd 的的決定。

問題 20:金融行業中最重要的技能是什麼?

巴:金融行業最重要的技能是銷售技能。好比你是怎樣說服別人與你結婚的,你是怎樣得到一份工作的。能做得好的最重要的特質是能夠控制恐懼和貪婪的能力,因為恐懼和貪婪可能毀了一切。

任何一個已經富有的人還想要翻倍都是愚蠢的想法。為什麼要拿你已有的去冒險,去追求你並不需要的呢?如果你已經富有,那再去冒險就沒有什麼好處了,反而會面臨 downside 的風險。

https://buzzorange.com/techorange/2016/11/25/buffett-20-questions/

GETTING TO THE FRONT WITH FRONTKEN

Author: 100percentprofits | Publish date: Thu, 29 Jun 2017, 12:25 PM





FrontKen Corporation is a very misunderstood company on Bursa Malaysia. Today I am writing a short piece on how you can make 100% profit from the misperception of this company.




First of all, technically Frontken has completed the rounding bottom and have broke the neckline resistance between 29c and 30c. It retraced to test the neckline support after breaking it late May and it is still above the support.

Next, it is possible for it to double the space of the rounding bottom to form a technical TP of 48c.

Okay so it's not a 100% profit. Sorry, not easy to find 100% everyday.

The reason Frontken is making this move is because the market is starting to realize that Frontken should be priced as a semiconductor stock and not a heavy industry or O&G counter.

The problem is that when you look at the Q report, the segmental reporting only discloses Rev & PBT by geographic region and not by business segment. You can only find that in the Annual report.



Notice how in 2016, 71% of revenue is derived from Semiconductor? This is a predominantly semiconductor stock with a few other businesses. The Annual report does not disclose PBT by industry, but since we all know that their Taiwan Subsidiary, Ares Green Technology is a 100% semicon stock, we can see from the latest Q report that their taiwanese division has a PBT margin of 20.2% (ref pic below). That is a pretty thick margin if you ask me. In fact, Inari's PBT margin for the last 4Q was 19.3%.




If you ask me a PE of 12.2 (at 30.5c) is pretty low, given most semiconductors are priced from 15-25 (let's not even talk about gtronic's 60 PE).

So why the misinformation? I think that it is because if you visit their website, http://www.frontken.com/ and look at their products, everything tells you that they are a heavy industry company. Nothing there tells you that they are a semiconductor company.



In fact, if you visit their taiwanese website, http://www.aresgreen.com.tw/index.asp?lang=1 you will also be confused because you don't see the typical semiconductor words. Most people when you say semicon, they will think wafers, sensors, chips or EMS.




On their taiwanese website, they will mention anodizaiton, electrolytic polishing cleaning etc. As an example, if you look at the picture below, to a layman, they might be thinking that Frontken is a cleaning company that cleans shower heads and random parts.




The thing most people fail to realize is that just as in any industry, there is the popular main business and other periferal busineses. Example: to a layman, oil & gas refers to drilling platform, exploration, and maybe refinery. However when you learn more about O&G you will learn business such as FPSO (Yinson & Bumi Armada) or support vessles (Dayang/ Coastal). Just because they are not the drilling platform, does not mean that they are not O&G.

The same applies for Frontken. They are in the support industry for semiconductor, which requires very specific standards. For example, the ultral cleaning as per the picture above is aimed to remove ions such as Lithium/ Natrium etc because any impurities on the surface will damage the semicon wafers when being produced.

If they weren't so specialized, there is no way they would be able to generate a PBT margin of 20%.

But what else? Have you noticed how clean their balance sheet is? They have net cash of RM74mil or 6c per share. Their latest CF statement shows that their Op cash flow is also clean.

In summary
  • Semicon stock at 12PE
  • Growing semicon division at 19.5% CAGR for the last 5 years
  • Semi-con PBT margin of 20%
  • Recently increased stake of Taiwanese semicon company from 73.2% to 84.6%
  • Clean balance sheet, net cash of RM74mil or 6c/share
  • Completed rounding bottom technically and retested long term support with technical TP of 48c

Reducing Uncertainty — A Valuable Practice - by RJ Hixson

Feature Article
Reducing Uncertainty — A Valuable Practice
by RJ Hixson
Click here to resolve formatting problems



Whenever I used to hear or read an outstanding book recommendation, I would typically buy the book and put it on my “to-read shelf” — which always offered a choice of great material. Maybe five or six years back I purchased one book for that shelf but was unable to read much more than a chapter or two on two different occasions. While highly recommended, the book read as dry and textbookish so I just put it back on my shelf. Last year, I had a couple of audible.com credits to use quickly before my subscription expired so I decided to give the audio version of the book a shot. Wow! What a difference listening made. For whatever reasons, the narration enthralled me in a way that reading had not.

Douglas Hubbard became interested in the idea of measurement and its challenges as a young consultant and some years later wrote How to Measure Anything. He had regularly heard the protest, “We can’t measure that” during project meetings. Rather than buy into that mindset, he challenged the whole idea that intangibles could not be measured and in the process, developed a whole new field of knowledge about the value of information. Throughout the book, he gives numerous examples of measuring tangible items and intangibles — nearly all that were previously believed to be unmeasurable.

Hubbard has seen the most egregious “We can’t measure it” protests coming from IT departments. Regardless of the size of your company or organization, you are probably aware of any number of large-scale IT projects that were blessed and funded but never brought the promised benefits or maybe failed horribly. The Van Tharp Institute had one of those a few years back, and we are not even a large company. Since he wrote the book, Hubbard seems to have specialized in measuring return on investment and other success metrics for IT projects and cyber security.

Hubbard’s case studies and methods to measure intangibles are fascinating. I was also intrigued by the ways that his methods apply to trading.

A Few Measurement Examples

  • Fish Population — To estimate the number of fish in the pond, catch a bunch of fish, tag them and release them. Then capture more fish in the same exact way as the first bunch and by using the proportion of tagged to untagged fish in the second catch, you can come up with a reliable estimate for the number of fish in a body of water. 
  • German Tank Production During World War II — Allied intelligence estimated how many tanks the Germans were producing but really, they had no idea. Posed with the problem, a group of statisticians developed a new sampling method using the only real information they had — serial numbers from tanks that had been captured. The statisticians’ estimates for tank production turned out to be very different than the intelligence service numbers and they also turned out to be remarkably close to the actual production figures (confirmed after the war). 
  • Forecasting Fuel for US Marine Corps — Hubbard helped the US Marine Corps improve their battle planning process. Previously, the service had used a very safe (large) number for the fuel units needed and the related resources to provide that fuel. By measuring fuel consumption on trucks over various paved and off-road conditions (which had never been done), Hubbard’s consulting team came up with a fuel consumption model that allowed the Marine Corps to cut its fuel usage estimates dramatically yet safely, save money, reallocate resources, and in the end save lives. 

A Few Takeaways

Here are just a few of the takeaways I found reading the book. Some were brand new ideas while others confirmed previous learnings —

  • When you have a lot of uncertainty, you don’t need tons of data to reduce that uncertainty. Even a small sample can be highly valuable if that’s all that’s available or affordable. 
  • Labeling risk as high, medium, and low is ambiguous and probably harmful to decision making processes. Providing very simple quantifications to those terms is actually a huge improvement. 
  • Confidence intervals are close enough to probabilities that practitioners (traders) can use them interchangeably. For example, some figure at a 95% confidence interval effectively says that figure has a probability of 95%. 
  • Monte Carlo modeling is a very useful and typically underutilized decision tool. 

Perhaps the biggest distinction the book provided was that measurement does not mean counting. Hubbard’s definition —

Measurement — a quantitatively expressed reduction of uncertainty based on one or more observations.

So measurement is a process rather than a static nominalization — which expands the usefulness of measurement a great deal. As a process, measurement does not eliminate uncertainty but reduces it. The idea of eliminating uncertainty (relatively speaking) with enough measurement (perfect information) may be possible but for most decisions, there are costs associated with collecting incremental information. This new area — Information Economics - looks at the costs and benefits of gathering more information and if or how additional measurements help decision makers.

Application to Tharp Think

Actually, How to Measure Anything relates to many Tharp Think principles but Hubbard’s core concept of reducing uncertainty struck me as applying very well to this one — “I meet my objectives through position sizing strategies.”

This principle has several assumptions and Mr. Hubbard’s ideas fit in well with them —

  1. You have “good” objectives. Good here would include: written down, quantifiable, complete/robust, and they fit you. Those are all about reducing uncertainty about what you are trying to accomplish, about why you are trading. 
  2. You know how your system performs. You can reduce uncertainty about your system’s performance greatly in two main ways — following rules and measuring performance by market type. Obviously, gathering a large sample size of R multiples in a particular market type is very useful. Also useful — calculating your system’s SQN score. These practices reduce uncertainty about what a trading system will generate when you trade it in the future. 
  3. You understand position sizing strategies. They answer a quantification question, “How much to risk in a trade?” They are modified for each system’s R multiple distribution. One of their primary functions is to provide a solid level of confidence that you will not blow up your account. 

Hubbard can also help us understand one or two logical conclusions of this Tharp Think principle:

  1. You need well-crafted position sizing strategies to help you reach your objectives. Well-crafted position sizing strategies help you achieve the returns you seek and avoid the drawdown level you are unwilling to tolerate. Well-crafted position sizing strategies cannot guarantee some result (imperfect information) but they can greatly reduce the uncertainty about the range of ending results you can expect in your equity. 
  2. You need processes to define good objectives and craft effective position sizing strategies. Again, the processes will involve some measurement and will greatly reduce the uncertainty around each item. These processes might include some modeling and at least for the position sizing strategy development, Monte Carlo simulations can be very useful 

Recommendation

Like those before me, I would recommend traders read Hubbard’s book, now in its third edition. If you are an audiobook fan, you might find that format more interesting though the printed book contains numerous charts and diagrams which aid the text greatly. In an article like this, you can only get a very superficial idea about the concepts Hubbard presents in over 300 pages but hopefully, you can see how his ideas apply to trading topics generally — and to some Tharp Think principles specifically.

About the Author: R.J. Hixson is a devoted husband and active father. At the Van Tharp Institute, he researches and develops new products and services that help traders trade better. He can be contacted at “rj” at “vantharp.com”.

看看這177位百萬富翁白手起家成功的原因,大多都是因為這些『習慣』

 Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Thu, 29 Jun 2017, 09:27 AM
2017. May. 5



想要成功就該聽成功人是怎麼說怎麼做!!!

他們從普通人轉變成有着七位數
財產的成功人士的原因之一,
在於其“富有的習慣”。
這個短語是托馬斯·科里生造的,
他花了五年時間研究了177位
自力更生的百萬富翁的日常習慣。

他們經常閱讀

富人更願意學習,而非娛樂。
科里寫道:“88%的富人
每天會至少閱讀30分鐘,
內容以自學和自我提升類閱讀為主。
大多數人都不會為了娛樂去讀書,
富人閱讀是為了獲取知識。”
科里發現他們傾向於閱讀三類書:
成功人士自傳、個人修養
或發展類書籍、歷史類書籍。

他們堅持鍛煉


“76%的富人堅持每天有氧運動30分鐘以上”,
科里寫道。有氧運動包括跑步、
短跑、快走、騎自行車等。



“有氧運動不僅對身體好,
對大腦也有很大幫助”,
他寫道,“有氧運動可以增加神經元(腦細胞),
體育鍛煉還可以增加體內葡萄糖含量,
葡萄糖就是大腦的燃料。
大腦獲得的養料越多,
發展就會越好,你也會變得更聰明。”

他們結識其他成功人士

“你會和你常常來往的人一樣成功,
”科里寫道,“富人總是在尋找目標明確、
樂觀熱情、心態積極的人做朋友。”
另外也要避免與負能量的人或影響接觸,
科里強調:“負面的、
消極的批評會讓你離成功的道路越來越遠。”

他們追求自己的目標

“追求自己的夢想和目標,
可以讓你產生長期的幸福感,
最終轉化為大量的財富”,科里寫道。
有太多人犯了追逐別人
(比如他們父母的)夢想的錯誤,
富人則不斷完善自己的目標
,堅韌且激情滿滿地追求它們。
“激情讓工作更有趣”,科里寫道,
“激情給你提供克服失敗、錯誤、
拒絕的能力、堅持和重心。”

他們堅持早起

在科里的研究中,
一半以上自力更生成為百萬富翁的人士
至少在工作時間前三個小時起床。
這是對付日常工作突發情況的一種解決策略,
比如開會時間太長、路況太堵、
要去學校接生病的孩子等等。
“這些突發情況會對我們產生心理影響,
改變我們的潛意識,
最終會讓我們覺得生活已經失控”,
科里寫道,“早晨五點起床,
完成你今天工作中最重要的三件事,
這會讓你重新掌控你的生活,
給你一種你在主導自己生活的自信感。”

他們有多種收入來源

“白手起家的百萬富翁不會依靠單一的收入來源,
他們有多重收入方式。在我的研究中,
65%的富人在他們賺得第一筆百萬美元之前,
已經有至少三種收入來源了。
”額外的收入包括房地產租賃、
股市投資、副業的部分所有權等。


他們有自己的導師


“找到自己的導師可以讓你更快積聚財富”,
科里寫道。“成功的導師不僅僅是
會對你的生活產生積極的影響。
通過指導你什麼該做、什麼不該做,
他們可以定期地活躍在你的成功道路上。
他們與你分享有價值的成功經驗,
這些經驗要麼來自於他們的導師,
或是來自於曾經失敗的打擊。”
他們有着積極的人生態度

“只有當你有積極的精神態度時,
你才能獲得長期的成功。
在我的研究中,積極向上是所有自力更生百萬富翁的標誌。”

問題在於,大部分人無法確定
他們的想法到底是積極的還是消極的,
他解釋道:“如果你停下來聽聽自己的思想,
感受它們的存在,
你會發現絕大多數想法都是消極的。
但只有當你強迫自己去看清內心時,
你才會意識到這些消極思想的存在。
意識到它們的存在是最關鍵的。”

他們不從眾


“我們總是希望融入到社會中,適應這個社會,
並成為其中一部分,因此我們總會
儘力不讓自己過於突出。
”但是,“無法讓自己與他人區分出來,
這就是為什麼大多數人無法獲得成功的原因”。
成功人士創造自己的圈子,並把他人拉進來,
科里說:“你需要讓自己突出,
然後創造你自己的圈子,讓別人來加入你。”


他們幫助其他人成功

“幫助其他人追逐目標和夢想並獲得成功,
這也可以讓你從中受益。如果沒有其他成功人士,
那麼成功也是很難定義的。如果想要成功,
最好的方式是首先幫助其他人。”
但是,你不應該給所有人都提供幫助,
科里說:“你只應該幫助那些樂觀的、
有明確目標的、積極的、追逐夢想的人。”
他們每天花15-30分鐘時間思考

“思考是他們成功的關鍵”,科里發現了這一點。
富人傾向於在早晨獨立思考至少15分鐘。
“他們每天早頭腦中思考很多事情”,他解釋道,
話題既包括事業和財務,也包括健康和慈善。
他們經常會問自己這樣的問題:
“我怎麼做才能賺更多錢?我的工作讓我開心嗎?
我鍛煉時間足夠嗎?我還可以參與哪些慈善活動?”

他們尋求反饋


“因害怕批評,所以我們很少向他人尋求反饋”,
科里寫道,“但反饋是了解做事正確與否的關鍵。
反饋幫助你了解自己是否仍在正確的道路上。
如果反饋是批評,無論是好還是壞,
都是學習和成長的重要元素。”
此外,反饋可以讓你改變重心,
體驗新的事業或道路。
正如科里所說:“反饋中提供給你的信息,
讓你可以在任意企業中獲得成功。”

http://imtopsales.com/view1/?p=8735

征阳和中信建设争取大马建筑工程

2017-06-29 08:59

(吉隆坡28日讯)征阳(SUNSURIA,3743,主板产业组)与世界500大公司——中国中信集团(CITIC)共组联营公司,放眼进军大马建筑市场。

征阳持49%
中信建设51%

征阳在文告中指出,旗下征阳建筑公司(Sunsuria Builders)将与中信集团子公司中信建设(CITIC Construction)筹组联营公司,分别掌握49%和51%股权。

在筹组公司后,双方将成为彼此的大马商业伙伴,征阳将成为中信建设在大马所有工程的唯一伙伴。作为回报,征阳将授予合作的联营公司优先参与旗下项目权利,但不包括征阳进行中的产业发展业务。

中信集团是《财富》世界500强公司之一,总资产高达7.24兆港元(约3.99兆令吉),旗下业务十分多元,包括金融、建筑至油气等。

中信建设获美国杂志《工程新闻纪录》列入全球250顶级承包商榜单,承建多项国际著名建筑,如中国奥林比克体育馆—鸟巢、伦敦阿尔伯码头项目、阿尔及利亚东西大道等。

征阳执行主席拿督戴良业说:“这项合作计划反映了征阳积极追求业务扩张和健全财务成长的成果。

与中信建设合作,我们不只是寻找到足以分享自身履行承诺和可靠伙伴,同时中信建设也具有丰富经验、技术专才、财务优势以及强劲支援网络等优势。”

中信建设董事长陈晓佳则说:“大马在中国一带一路的政策下,扮演了深具潜能的角色。戴良业领导的征阳,为大马信誉良好的公司,他也是一位备受敬重的领袖。我们相信此联营计划,将使到双方将各自优势发挥,令公司达致更佳的成就,以及为大马经济转型带来显著贡献。”

文章来源:星洲日报‧财经‧2017.06.29

SCGM BHD

By Kenanga Research
Market perform

Ex-target price: RM3.35

SCGM plans to rent a new 47,000 sq ft factory in Telok Panglima Garang, which will be its first factory in the Klang Valley, beginning July 2017, and will be running at full capacity by December 2017.

The factory will house four thermoform machines and two extruders, producing 5,000 tonnes per year (at full capacity), costing RM20mil in capital expenditure (capex) which the group will fund from internally generated funds.

This new rented factory will produce lunchboxes to cater to the existing Klang Valley market, said Kenanga Research, which may provide better efficiency in the longer run from reduced transportation cost.

“All in, post the inclusion of this newly rented factory, we expect 2018 to 2019 average capacity to increase to 39.2 to 49.9 tonnes per year.”

Kenanga Research said it is expecting 2018 capex allocation of RM60mil (from RM51mil) to be utilised mostly for the second factory construction in Kulai and the new Klang Valley rented factory.

It added that 2019 capex of RM54mil will be utilised for the Kulai factory construction.“As a result, we lower our 2018 effective tax rates to 13% (from 18%) post increasing our capex estimates as SCGM will benefit from reinvestment tax allowance, while we maintain 2019 tax rates at 18%.

Despite strong bottom-line growth in 2017, earnings before interest and taxes margins compressed to 15.1% in 2017 mostly due to higher resin cost, while we believe we have accounted for other cost increases previously.

“Management had guided that resin cost has moderated since a high in February and March 2017. However, the group’s current resin cost is still higher by 10% year-on-year.”

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/06/29/analyst-reports/#M55tS1iQM1wrLeG2.99

湯文亮﹕細價股只合年輕人玩

文章日期:2017年6月29日

【明報專訊】星期二細價股出現股災,有多隻細價股下跌超過五成,有幾隻細價股下跌超過九成,其實,細價股在過去一段時間一直下跌,星期二當日只不過是加快速度,以「翠如BB股」聯旺(8217)為例,已經由26元下跌至10元,當日再跌至1.06元,得番幾個巴仙,真係喊都無謂。

轉身要快 輸了可再來過

有記者問我對細價股睇法,我話一向沒有參與細價股買賣,所以不能夠表示任何意見,投資細價股的人都知道,細價股買賣行莊家制,做莊的唔托住隻股票,股價一定會下跌,莊家要托市就一定要用錢,如果莊家資金不足,唯有抵押那些股票,由那時候開始,話事人已經由莊家轉移到銀主,倘若莊家到期未能還款,銀主就會斬倉,細價股股價就會急跌,當日就是出現這種情况,但同一時間有咁多隻細價股爆煲,就比較少見。

至於投資細價股的股民,見到股價急跌,正是放就輸實,唔放就死實,正如李華在《弔古戰場文》所說「降矣哉,終身夷狄,戰矣哉,暴骨沙礫!」炒賣細價股,就好似埋身肉搏,老實說,真的是不太適合上年紀的人,年輕人有的是時間,輸完又嚟賭過。

今次細價股股災,對股市影響很輕微,恒指只不過跌了30幾點,資深股票投資者絕大多數不會出現問題,年輕人就不敢說,如果年輕人炒賣股票,細價股一定是他們的首選,貪其快上快落,而且他們是非常有信心,認為在股票下跌之前可以預先放掉手上細價股,但今次股災來得快而狠,根本沒有時間走避,不少年輕投資者中伏,在細價股爆煲之前,David Webb在上月中提出警告,但又有幾多年輕投資者會聽?他們反而會質疑Webb的說法。

謝國忠捉到鹿不懂脫角

在細價股爆煲之後,我有多少替摩根士丹利前首席經濟師謝國忠不值,如果他說香港樓價衰足20年當日,同時預測細價股爆煲,今日就揚名立萬,我相信再沒有人夠膽質疑他的香港樓市衰足20年說法,捉到鹿都唔識脫角,無話可說。

紀惠集團行政總裁

[湯文亮 敢說亮話]

http://www.mpfinance.com/fin/columnist2.php?col=1463481149913&node=1498676488552&issue=20170629

港深又講金

 作者 : 華安 | (人氣:339) | 2017-06-18 22:39

今日要講嘅股票係港深聯合(8181.hk) ,隻股票吸引筆者嘅眼球係源於26/05/2017嘅配股動作。港深宣佈以$0.24配咗1.1億股,係經配發及發行配售股份而擴大的已發行股本約16.66 % (基本上又係呢啲用到盡quota嘅配股財技啦)。然後睇返公司過去幾年 (15年@$0.4,16年@$0.23及17年@$0.24)鑊鑊都鍾意用盡兩成嘅一般性授權配股。好喇,你會話佢只系少少動作啫,我就企咗喺度嘞!成何體統?

點解港深會令筆者企咗喺度,就要了解佢嘅過去。佢喺2013年上市,喺2014年賣過一次殼,到2015年又透過押股喺金利豐度用暗手方式賣殼。自此,喺公開資料度已經睇唔到港深有大股東嘅手影,玩法係極度神秘。從CCASS見到 (見表1),十大券商嘅持股都好散,但加起來都有59.5%。然後康證,君陽,中國建信同德意志都同時揸二千九百萬股 (4.1%),又會分得咁啱啱好嘅?!跟著睇返最近期 (24/03/2017)嘅股東特別大會投票表決結果 (表二),會見到有3億股投贊成票。如果粗略咁加上26/05/2017配嘅1.2億股,加起來就有4.2億股,佔今日總發行股數7.1億股嘅59%。大家可以諗下呢個咁59%同十大券商嘅59.5%有冇關係。當然啦,咁嘅數手花方法係有前設嘅,例如1) 假設小股東係唔會咁得閒去投票 (因為唔係間間上市公司都會咁慷慨派$100超市禮券),以致去得投票嘅都係莊家嘅人頭2) 獲配股嘅人士又係莊家嘅友好。

近半年來,港深動作頻頻,先喺2016年尾表示想轉型發展提供金融服務的業務。然後就係一連串嘅管理層大執位啦,包括黃鶴辭任執董及李展程(有金融方面嘅相關經驗)獲委任為執董。然後2017年3月又收購何應財(港深執董)同何應祥兩兄弟所持有嘅工廠單位物業。同年4月又收購德健證券已發行股本嘅30%。最後6月15日公佈旗下子公司取得放債人牌照。

總括而言,公司經歷暗手賣殼,用配股揸乾股票,加上業務轉型,相信應有一炒。有關德健做保薦人嘅track record詳見表3,亦可以諗諗港深加上德健後嘅「協同效應」。港深股價經歷配股後似乎已經跌定,現價市值只有1.6億,可以現價或低於配股價$0.24下買入,跌穿$0.208就走鬼。哎呀,寫寫吓又有幾口$0.221/$0.222嘅大手買盤添(見表4)。













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作者 - 細佬讀過兩年書,股壇中一個迷途小書僮。人生格言為:棋盤內,車無輪,馬無韁,叫聲將軍提防提防。

盛良物流(8292)


 作者 : emey | (人氣:463) | 2017-06-22 14:14

今年上半年,恒生指數接近一口氣升了約四千點,股王騰訊也在過去半年內升了超過四成,並創了新高。反之,細價股及財技股卻表現慘淡,某程度反映這類股票表現的創業版指數,仍然在尋底中,並在過去半年下跌超過10%。

雖然如此,仍有兩類股份表現相對出色,令我們這批不炒大價股的股票炒家搵到啲食。其一是用全購方式賣殻的股票,這類股票吸引炒作的原因,仍新主實力強勁及炒作往績彪炳,例子包括恒寶企業(1367),當新主黎亮以1.43元完成全購後,股價便快速地被炒高至約4.1元。此外,利福地產也在以5.18元完成全購後,兩星期內被炒高至約7.8元。

此外,另一類賭博成份高一點,但如買中,便可以輕輕鬆鬆贏十倍八倍,這種小賭怡情的投機炒賣,就是參與半新股的投機,這類股票的炒作賣點,就是上市時被圍乾了或被買乾了。經典例子有翠如BB股,一隻上市時約三億市值的股票被炒高約一百倍至約300億市值。此外,分折上市的宏安地產(1243),由十多億市值上市,之後被炒高20多倍至約300億市值。比較近期的例子,有大森控股(1580),此股的招股價為0.7元,三個內被炒高至約4.8元。

這類股票的炒作特色是升到你唔信,所以如果你細看市值及計算升幅,你真係唔敢買,如果我自己投機這類股票,我第一條守則就是小賭怡情,當自己去咗澳門賭大細,肯定唔會瞓身,第二條守則就是唔睇市值及過去升幅,只要勢靚就衝入去,勢唔對就盡快走。

近期由於在網台做直播節目,多了接觸股場中人,自然收風多了,令我關注了一隻上市近一年的創仔盛良物流(8292),這股一星期前才約1.8元,今天已升至近3元,走勢非常淩厲,此股想必乾到無人有。再看此股身處行業,仍極具高增長潛力的物流業,近期圓通速遞收購先達物流(6123),正好反映了物流行業的優秀前景,而此股也快將上市滿一年,所以也擁有賣殻概念。

總的來說,這類股票由於夠乾及有概念,可以像前述股票一樣,擁有升到你唔信的條件,但當然downside 也可以好得人驚,但如果以賭博心態,及自認走得快過人,可以考慮博一博,希望單車變摩托。

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作者 - Phemey.com 投資創業網絡的創辦人, 通天密碼系列作者, 香港投資日報出版人, 周顯股票課程的搞手。

昌利控股 8098

昌利控股 8098

近日,港交所提出創業板要革新,以針對股權高度集中、造殼炒殼等現象,亦以免創業板繼續淪為大戶魚肉散戶的散貨場。當中的建議包括重新檢討以配售形式上市的制度並加入強制公開發售的部份、提高創業板上市的財務要求、提高申請主板上市的財務要求等等。其實自駿傑集團控股(8188.HK)一上市就被證監勒令停牌的事件開始,在創業板新上市的股票都加入了公開發售的元素,令從前創仔一上市就高配售價數倍或一上市就暴升的現象不復存在。但筆者認為監管機構出手對整體並無大影響。固然有些漏洞是被阻塞了,但始終無形之手的力量龐大。資金要找出路的趨勢不變,本地金融市場的炒風不減,亦有人繼續以市值管理為生。賭場一張賭枱被看緊了,聰明的資金自會到其他賭枱上翻滾。

大市回調,資金就從一線大股流到二三線的細股是容易觀察到的Pattern。但當中涉及的二三線上千隻,當中淨是創業板已經二百多隻,胡亂下注容易浪費時間成本,甚至要承受更慘重的代價。

以星期五創業板二十大升幅第一位的HM INTL HLGS (8416.HK)為例,單日升幅28%,現報4.1。不足一個月內最高位12.66跌到最低位的接近3.5,蒸發了七成的市值。雖然筆者看上去此股是有機搏反彈,但留意到當初上市的配售價僅為0.6,當堂無曬胃口。

要搏的話,搏依隻也許不錯,但必須要睇曬下文,留意風險。

昌利控股(8098.HK)全資擁有昌利證券有限公司 (「昌利證券」),並透過其子公司提供證券及期貨交易服務、配售及包銷服務。控股股東歐雪明持68.18%長倉。現市值為5.28億。

業務表現

在2016年11月11日公佈的中期報告提到,過去的六個月公司受惠於透過滬港通的南向投資流入以及關於深港通推出的消息,在營業額、貸款融資和投資控股的業務都錄得增長。在2月7日公佈一則正面盈利預告,預期截至二零一六年十二月三十一日止九個月之綜合溢利有所增長,溢利上揚主要由於本集團之按公平值計入損益之金融資產公平值變動收益約510萬港元及收回已減值虧損之應收貸款約390萬港元。在2月7日公佈一則正面盈利預告,預期截至二零一六年十二月三十一日止九個月之綜合溢利有所增長,溢利上揚主要由於本集團之按公平值計入損益之金融資產公平值變動收益及收回已減值虧損之應收貸款。

公司剛剛在6月15日宣佈於6月27日召開董事會,省覽及通過年度業績。筆者相信從以上的公告,加上過去半年港股重拾升勢以及股本活動逐漸頻繁的情況推斷,昌利控股(8098.HK)年度業績的表現應該不俗。

轉板的憧憬

今年2月20日,昌利控股(8098.HK)欣然宣佈,已向聯交所遞交一項正式申請,以根據上市規則第9A章有關轉板上市之規定轉板上市。

其實公司早於2012年8月一度申請過轉主板,唯當時的申請逾期失效。今日,業績符合轉主板的財務要求,再次申請並不令人意外。值得一提的是,過去一年轉主板的成功率可謂不高,20宗當中只有6宗成功。今年開始計,半年內只有3宗(百本醫護 2293.HK, 電訊數碼 6033.HK和 鼎石資本804.HK)。原因是,監管機構嚴打轉板賣殼的活動,問長問短,令不少想轉主板的公司死在超過6個月的有效期。筆者相信,這個風險仍然是存在,但是可控的 (你懂的XD)。公司有之前一次失敗的經驗,筆者相信昌利控股(8098.HK)能夠善用這次的教訓 (趁監管機構還沒有重新檢視創業板制度之前)。

有潛質的證券殼

現在殼股市場中最吃香的就是證券殼,原因除了申請牌照需時,更是因為這行業上市時的監察特別嚴謹。昌利控股(8098.HK)全資擁有昌利證券有限公司,手上有1, 2, 4和5號牌照,能夠從事以下受規管的活動。雖然沒有非常珍貴的6號牌(就機構融資提供意見)及9號牌(資產管理),但證券殼始終需求大,有價有市。


(點都要提一提2014年公司因未有領取牌照下就機構融資提供顧問服務而被處分,大股東歐小姐應該好唔gur,再上訴但2016年遭終審法院否決。筆者認為這事件過左咁耐,應該對公司業務影響已經完全反映)





貨乾

CCASS中流通的股份佔已發行股份的27.51%,頭5大的證券商已持貨高達23.56%。第一大的昌利證券持15.51%。如斯的乾度,筆者可以想像爆發力有多驚人。然而,想收貨亦不容易。

另外,2014年4月公司授出有限期為9年的購股權,共100,000,000股,行使價為0.2275港元。








最後一提的是,睇路。

筆者之前介紹過一隻有轉板概念的股票 -- 中國宇天 (8230.HK)。介紹時0.48,最高位0.75。某家財經雜誌輕輕一推,股價就碌碌碌碌左落黎,可恨可恨。貨就未散的,好消息也未出,但重拾升勢需時,筆者也不建議茂茂然衝入去等,多留意便可。

利申: 筆者沒持有以上股票

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作者 - Kelvin Yuen,朋友中意開玩笑叫我"KY"(世界知名品牌,唔知就好過知xd)。塵世中一個迷途小書僮,希望自己將來有能力同財力令世界變得更美好。  

http://phemey.com/index.php?s=/article/detail/id/665

道家补阳第一秘方,南怀瑾大师推荐︱虚寒体质的福音

2017-05-05 微中医服务号



秘方的出处!

道家也有很多的方法,但属于旁门,不过旁门也是门,有时候你们也可以用。大约二十几年前,日本人发明的温灸器,放在肚脐上,暖暖的,可以治肠胃病。这是日本人把中国道家的老方法拿出来卖钱,这个在道家叫灸脐法。其实用不着那个,我教你们,年纪大的都可以用,比较保险。

用桂圆肉一颗(新鲜的叫龙眼,干的叫桂圆),花椒六、七颗,加上那个艾绒一同打烂,晚上睡觉的时候挑一点点,小指甲面那么大,放在肚脐里就行了。你不要小看我们的肚脐,肚脐会吸收的。

大陆当年有些吃鸦片的人,政府禁烟,抓住了要关起来,所以不敢抽啦,就把鸦片烟膏放肚脐上,效果差不多。肚脐有个孔,我们在娘胎里头的饮食、呼吸都靠这个肚脐连到妈妈。所以把这个药放在肚脐,用橡皮贴把它封住去睡觉,比那个温灸器还要好。胃病也好,各种病都好,老年人的身体绝对保健康,身体需要就吸进去了,不要的它不吸。

这样就会水火交感了,继续二三天后,早晨起来嘴也不苦啦,口也不干啦,肠胃病都会好了。这个是真的秘方,你们也可以替人家治病,不过不要收钱,我公开讲的你们去卖钱,那不太好啊!这个水火交感,火在下,就是元气在下,水在上,也就是清凉的在上。所以老年人口水多,脚底心还发暖,冬天脚都不怕冷的,一定长寿。

——摘自南怀瑾先生《我说参同契》第五十四讲



秘方材料:



使用后的感觉

法庆 :给我老婆用了三天,她原来的便秘毛病正在转轻,经常放屁,大便多了一些。手脚发热,有点虚汗。现在观察后续效果是否持久。谢谢公布秘方的师兄,顶礼南师。
macia:报告,我也做了。自己做的艾绒。手脚发暖,很不错。

fodizi :效果是相当的好!!!

混合气体:我给我母亲(70岁)试用一周左右,血压从150降到130。效果正在观察。但有一点应注意,做好艾绒后放到密封的小瓶里保存,北方干燥,药裸露一天,水分,气味尽失,效果就差了。

frying:用上过了半个小时感觉到肚子热热的很舒服,连着用了几天觉得睡眠真的有改善,睡的比以前踏实了,还有这次来例假不痛了,效果真的不错。

正本清源:用过的,效果非常好好,贴上大概一二十分钟就感觉肚脐周围热热的。不过我不是自己做的,是在淘宝一家叫古方药坊的店里买的,懒的麻烦。感谢南师。

混合气体:继续报告一下老年人使用效果。十天左右,我母亲血压高压从145-155降到119,低压79。恢复到标准血压,未使用其他药物。量血压是客观数值,有说服力。其他变化难以准确评估表达。

坚誓:上午买了花椒,艾草,家里刚好有桂圆肉。下午到超市买一个木制的捣臼,就制作了。捣的挺累的,配方也不是很精确,后来成药膏一样,挑了一团放肚脐上,用创可贴封住。10分钟后即有感觉,头涨好转,脑变得轻松了,然后左腰平常涨的地方跳动,轻松了许多。半小时后,肚脐一带发热。继续使用。

gongzi :给妈妈用了,真的是有些效果,老人家现在精神好多了,失眠很多年了,不可能立即见效,但真是有所改善。还有手脚感觉比以前暖一些了,确实是好方子

还有很多的使用感受不一一列出,总结效果较好的有下列情况:

1、脾胃寒凉,寒性便秘,不能吃生冷的,这个反馈效果好的最多。

2、阳虚、怕冷,手凉、脚凉、这个效果也非常好。

3、心肾不交引起的失眠,心肾不交引起的高血压,好像要坚持用。

4、痛经和宫寒效果不错,很多人用了能排出很多淤积的血块。

5、还有很多的,上面列举的只是比较多的,大家可以自己试,这个方子老人、小孩都适合用。一年四季都可以用,夏天用,排寒扶阳效果更佳。

一位师傅的使用心得:

上山找师傅前,偶然在网上看到南怀瑾先生贴肚脐的万病方,南怀瑾先生说,这是道医方,可以调理肠胃,特别是手脚冰凉的人效果最好,老人用了可以长寿。

一看此方,我直觉是这方肯定好,为什么?因为人们老是生气怨人,生气怨人时身体就会产生寒毒,寒毒聚集在人的肠胃,肠胃就寒了。南怀瑾先生公布的处方,全是大热之药,桂圆肉、花椒以及艾绒,肚脐总理人体诸经百脉,可以通调周身之经气,其脐下无脂肪组织,皮肤筋膜直接相连,皮肤最薄,最易于药物皮肤吸收。一定是好方子!

师傅的寺院在山上,较潮湿,上了山,体寒的人就容易便秘,这是寒秘。我夫人4天拉不出大便,于是我给她在肚脐上贴了一块万病方,晚上八点贴的,结果晚上十二点就起来大手,痛快淋漓。每天给她贴,她从此就正常排泄了。琐碎病例不一一列举,我讲个最典型的病例,让大家知道南怀瑾的万病方威力之大。

师傅寺院中的老法师,已经六十岁了,肠胃一直不好,我也给她贴肚脐,第一晚贴了,她说肚脐上暖暖的很舒服。第二晚,我给她贴的量有些多,早晨起来,就不得了了,拉了四次稀,浑身发冷,大热天竟然穿上了羊绒毛衣,还觉得冷,穿着毛衣在太阳下晒了很久的太阳,才缓过劲来,而且不喝水,却总上厕所。老法师问我是怎么回事?我知道这是好事,但还是与师傅确认一下更好。确认后,我告诉老法师,这是好事,贴肚脐的都是大热的药,您的肠胃太寒了,都冻成冰块了,因为热化冰了,所以你拉稀,不喝水就上厕所,怕冷是因为化冰,消耗了您的热量,是大好事!就象下雪天,我们不觉得冷,但是化雪天人们却感到非常冷。

老法师心宽了,继续坚持贴,从此胃口大开,而且还减肥了,没几天肚子小了一圈,胳膊上的肥肉也少了很多,人变苗条了。老法师问我是怎么回事?我说,这是因为以前您脾胃太寒了,身体里的废水等垃圾运不出去,现在肠胃变热了,有劲了,身体里的废水垃圾被排除体外,所以就减肥了,变苗条了。

中医上说脾主运化。确实未虚言呀!万病方可以长期用,一开始治病时可以给药量大一点,以后可以小剂量长期用,为什么要长期用呢?因为我们每天都在生气每天都在怨人,产生的寒毒自然积聚在肠胃里,老人长期用自然可以长寿,因为脾胃为后天之本嘛,消化吸收的好,自然营养好,能活得长一些。我分析南怀瑾先生的万病方除调理肠胃外,可以**痛经、寒性便秘(就是喜欢喝热水,拉不出大便也不太难受)、手脚冰冷、肝火旺、感冒、寒性的肥胖等等。

特别需要注意的是,此方晚上睡前贴,早晨一定要取出,千万别贪心。因为肚脐需要休息,才能吸收药,老贴着,肚脐该不工作了,还会发炎。更要注意的是,医生可以用此方赚钱,为病人服务,但一定不要积财太多,要知道要去布施,将财反射给众生,财多,不会用,财就成灾了。

如果你不会辨证,也没有关系,只要你见这个人爱生气,爱怨人,给他用肯定没有问题。但大家一定应该知道,这只是一个治标的药物,病根是我们爱生气爱怨人的习气,改习气才是我们治病的根本。愿大家广泛流传此文,帮助更多的人解除病痛折磨,帮助更多人认清生气怨人等坏习气,才是我们自己健康的敌人。

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漫画版《易经》一看就懂!很难得,建议收藏!

有人说它可以趋吉避凶,有人说它可以预卜未来,这部上古就出现的圣书究竟有何魔力?能够历经数千年而越发令世人称奇?

《易经》,几千年来,被广泛地运用在政治、经济、军事、天文、地理、人文、科学、哲学等领域中,也因此被认为犹如天书般难懂。

漫画《易经》采用通俗、生动的图文,化简为易,全面诠释了河图、洛书、八卦及六十四卦的起源与原理,另对易学产生的背景和道医养生学也做了详实的考证。

看懂《易经》也就看懂了人生



http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/4A5_5daNssZF0t4omtV2lg