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Friday, March 31, 2017

巴菲特的8个人生观念

杨佳文 2017年 03月 27日



谋生致富的方法,包括打工、做生意和投资(相关文章:三种谋生致富之道)。巴菲特(Warren Buffett)是一名生意人和投资大师,他的投资致富之道,大家应该都读过不少(没读过可点击此处),但你可能不太了解他的人生观。笔者在观赏了HBO制作的纪录片《成为巴菲特》(Becoming Warren Buffett)后,整理出了巴菲特的8个人生观念: 

一、别以为读书赚不了钱

巴菲特自小就爱阅读。他小时候读过一本书,书名叫《赚1,000块的1,000个方法》。长大后,他正是靠大量阅读来找出值得投资的股票。读书未必赚得了大钱,但不读书肯定掌握不了能帮我们赚钱的知识和资讯。

二、当自己的老板

巴菲特在儿时就做起小生意,售卖汽水、口香糖和派报纸。他说:“我喜欢当自己的老板。”(I like being my own boss)。由此可见,巴菲特很早就体会到达致财务自由的重要性。

财务自由=拥有足够的收入和资产,能够自由地安排自己的时间,做自己想做的事。

三、克服自己的弱点

巴菲特说,习惯就像铁链,平时轻得无法感受到,但一旦我们想要挣脱,就会觉得铁链无比沉重。巴菲特曾经十分害怕在许多人面前说话。为了克服这个弱点,他报名参加了卡内基训练课程。他很庆幸自己当年做了这个决定,不然的话,他的人生可能完全不同。时至今日,他仍将卡内基训练课程的证书挂在办公室的墙上。

四、做自己擅长、有优势的事情

巴菲特之所以能靠投资致富,其中一个重要因素在于他会认清自己的“能力圈”(circle of competence),也就是他的知识和能力范围。他认为,在股市之中,许多人往往容易受到各种资讯影响,总是觉得自己应该有所行动。实际上,我们该做的事情是找出自己的优势,该出手时才出手。毕竟,每个人的资源和时间都有限。


五、专注

巴菲特和比尔·盖茨(Bill Gates)是好朋友。有一天,比尔·盖茨的爸爸叫他们俩写下对他们来说最重要的人格特质,他们不约而同地写下了相同的答案:专注(focus)。巴菲特说,当他对一件事情感兴趣时,他就会全情投入地钻研,比如阅读相关书籍,与相关领域的专家见面聊天。

六、回馈社会

众所周知,巴菲特是一个大慈善家,他把大部份财富捐给了比尔·盖茨夫妇还有自己子女的慈善基金会。他说,他这一生能花的钱,远远不及他赚到的钱,这些他花不到的钱,对他来说不会带来任何效用(utility),把这些钱捐出去,这些钱才能为别人带来效用。

七、找到你喜欢的工作

在整部纪录片的开头,巴菲特就跟一群年轻人说,我们每个人这一辈子,就只会有一副身躯,一个头脑,我们必须思考如何善用这两样“资产”。他在纪录片的结尾时说,这个世界是一部精彩的电影,但活着绝对不要“梦游”。我们每个人都应该找到自己想从事的工作,也就是即便你不需要工作,也想要做的事情。他认为,这样的人生才精彩,因为你每天都会有所期待。

八、关于死亡

纪录片的制作人最后问巴菲特是否害怕死亡。巴菲特说,他不害怕死亡,人皆有一死,而他是一个不可知论者(agnostic)。死后的事,谁也不知道,他选择享受生活,对生活保有热情,做他喜欢做的事情。

http://cj.sharesinv.com/20170327/45147/

MarkHulbert Opinion: Why soaring consumer confidence should worry investors

Opinion: Why soaring consumer confidence should worry investors
Published: Mar 30, 2017 5:40 p.m. ET

Stocks do better when shoppers are uncertain



By MarkHulbert Columnist

Far from the cause for celebration that an exuberant Wall Street assumes it to be, soaring consumer confidence is a source of concern.

And make no mistake; it is soaring. The Conference Board' consumer confidence index jumped to 125.6 in March, from 116.1 in February. That is one of the biggest one-month jumps in the history of the index, and was far higher than the consensus expectation of 114.1 among economists surveyed by MarketWatch. March's is the highest reading for the index in 16 years.

It's time to take profits in high-yield corporate bonds and buy high-yield municipals, says Sierra Strategic Income Fund co-manager David Wright.

Why is this concerning? Because the stock market in the past has performed better following low consumer confidence readings than in the wake of high readings. Consumer confidence's relationship to the stock market is a classic contrarian story, in other words.

That's certainly what I found upon feeding the consumer sentiment data into my PC's statistical software. The most statistically significant pattern is the relationship between consumer confidence and the stock market's performance in prior months. Consumer sentiment tends to rise after the stock market has turned in a strong performance, and vice versa.

This is well illustrated in the chart below. Though the consumer sentiment index plotted there is the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index, it is highly correlated with the Conference Board's consumer confidence index.


This correlation between consumer sentiment and trailing market returns helps explain what' going on now: The stock market has produced surprisingly strong returns over the past several months, and — sure enough — consumer sentiment has risen.

The real shocker, though, came when I measured the correlation between consumer sentiment and the stock market' subsequent return: The stock market did much better following particularly low readings than after high readings — as is summarized in the table below.

Dow’s return over subsequent

Following the 10% of months with the lowest consumer confidence index readings

Following the 10% of months with the highest consumer confidence index readings

3 months

2.8%

-0.9%

6 months

6.3%

-0.2%

12 months

11.9%

3.0%

So don't get caught up in Wall Street's excitement over the surprisingly strong consumer confidence reading. A sober reading of history suggests that, as it often does, Wall Street is interpreting the data in precisely the wrong way.

For more information, including descriptions of the Hulbert Sentiment Indices, go to www.hulbertratings.com or email mark@hulbertratings.com

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-soaring-consumer-confidence-should-worry-investors-2017-03-30?siteid=rss&rss=1

若出口持平.产量大增.棕油价年杪或跌至1800令吉

2017-03-30 17:07

(吉隆坡30日讯)原棕油价涨势料受棕油及大豆高产能展望限制,2017年第二季展望中和,分析员认为原棕油价将在今年见顶,下半年表现胥视库存、出口和产量而定,在6大可能情况中,若出现最糟糕状况,出口平平而产量偏高,可能导致年杪原棕油价跌至每吨1800令吉水平。

棕油价今年料见顶

肯纳格研究目前维持2017年棕油价在每公吨2550令吉水平,第二季预测在2700至2900令吉左右,但下半若年库存走高料导致原棕油价大幅度下调,不排除一旦出口需求落后产能,推升2017年第四季产能至200万吨以上水平,拖累棕油价格失守2000令吉水平。

虽然今年产能展望走高,但肯纳格认为,价格走势还需视出口状况而定,因出口将是影响库存及价格的不稳定因素。棕油产能将在2017下半年复苏,但需求依然存有风险,尤其是大豆产能充足,料导致棕油出口面临挑战,除非有新催化因素出现,否则原棕油价将在今年见顶。

这些潜在催化因素包括厄尔尼诺气候、正面柴油政策调整及美国大豆产能风险。

肯纳格研究指出,原棕油价料已在2017年2月中达到每吨3348令吉全年高点,预计随着库存在下半年复苏,价格也随之下调。

肯纳格列出下半年影响棕油价6大状况:一、高产量和高出口;二、中高产量和中高出口;三、产量和出口皆平平;四、高产量和中高出口;五、中高产量和高出口;六、中高产量和出口平平。

情况1至3出现,库存水平可维持200万公吨的心理水平之下;情况4和6出现,出口落后产量,导致第四季库存超越200万公吨心理水平,而情况5的发生是产量落后出口,让库存持续下跌。

肯纳格认为,状况2及6出现几率较高,因预测全年产能将接近“中高”水平。若出现出口下滑状况,状况6料带来最疲弱价格展望,不排除年杪原棕油价将跌至每吨1800令吉。

不过,该行强调,此价格预测以库存-价格走势为基础,2017年下半年原棕油价料可见正面或负面催化因素浮现,导致供应方价格持续受压。

2016年第四季,业者盈利按季改善,主要是获鲜果串产能按季改善10%支撑,不过按年平均产能下滑10%,超越大马的13%平均跌幅。今年至今,全年平均售价扬23%,至每吨2609令吉。

由于原油价波动及美元走强将持续支撑原棕油价,肯纳格研究看好,在2017年第一季原棕油价走强及产能按年走高带动下,业者第一季按年表现料走强,但按季表现持平。

截至目前,原棕油已走高31%,至每吨3172令吉;产能走扬17%,至398万吨。不过该行认为,按季盈利料持平,因较高原棕油价(涨7%)料抵销较低产能(跌16%)。

纳入上述因素,肯纳格预计,视产能复苏强度,种植公司第一季业绩料符合或低于预期,估计沙巴业者因干燥气候影响,盈利将在年初走疲。

种植公司盈利有望成长52%

对比2016年,肯纳格预计种植公司全年盈利有望成长52%,不过此利好已在市场预期内,种植股股价料在2017年窄幅波动,仅部份存有潜在催化因素者将受益,包括印尼柴油政策变化让PPB集团(PPB,4065,主板消费品组)受益,中国需求增长料惠及森那美(SIME,4197,主板贸服组)、IOI集团(IOICORP,1961,主板种植组)及吉隆坡甲洞(KLK,2445,主板种植组)。



文章来源:星洲日报‧财经‧报道:郭晓芳‧2017.03.30

CIMB Research retains Add for Cypark

Friday, 31 March 2017 | MYT 8:55 AM

An aerial view of the Cypark Suria Pajam Renewable Energy Park in Negri Sembilan.

KUALA LUMPUR: CIMB Equities Research is retaining its Add for Cypark Resources as it expects the earnings per share (EPS) to grow by 50% in FY18, driven by the contribution from the waste-to-energy (WTE) plant in Tanah Merah, Negeri Sembilan.

It said on Friday this could potentially re-rate Cypark’s share price. The key risk to its call is lower-than-expected earnings from the WTE plant.

Cypark’s 1QFY10/17 core net profit met VIMB Research’s expectation as it accounted for 25% of its full year forecast. However, it was only 21% of consensus full-year forecasts.

“The 1Q17 core net profit rose 27% on-year, driven mainly by a better performance in the environmental engineering and renewable energy divisions,” it said.

CIMB Research kept its earnings forecasts, Add recommendation and sum-of-parts based target price of RM2.40.

It pointed out that excluding the unrealised foreign exchange loss of RM300,000, the 1Q17 core net profit rose 27% on-year to RM12mil. The stronger earnings were driven mainly by a better performance in the environmental engineering (EE) division and green tech & renewable energy (GTRE) division.

The EE’s operating profit jumped 47% on-year to RM12mil, thanks to increased external and internal projects while GTRE’s operating profit rose 21% on the back of higher tipping fees generated from the landfill operation in Tanah Merah.
However, in 1Q17, the share of pretax profit contributed by internal projects dropped to 41% from 74% in the same quarter last year. The internal projects mainly refer to the
WTE plant which Cypark is both the owner and the contractor.

The lower share of profit is a positive development as it suggests that Cypark is capable of winning more external jobs in the future to offset the decline in earnings from internal projects once the WTE plant is completed by the end of this year.

CIMB Research said Cypark intends to win more external contracts to grow its construction earnings. It is confident in securing more government contracts for landfill closures and new sanitary landfill projects.


It said Cypark has also submitted many tenders and proposals worth more than RM2bil. It is optimistic that some of the tenders at an advance stage of negotiation could be secured this year.“Cypark aims to grow its renewable energy revenue to RM300mil by 2020, which implies a more than doubling of its current renewable energy portfolio.

“Cypark’s renewable energy revenue was only RM49mil in FY16. This, plus the potential revenue of RM80mil per annum from the WTE plant, would result in total revenue of only c.RM130mil per annum. We expect Cypark to be more aggressive in its participation in tenders related to renewable energy going forward.

“Even without future additions to Cypark’s renewable energy portfolio, we believe the stock is undervalued. We currently value Cypark’s WTE plant at only RM522mil, slightly lower than its book value of RM540mil as at end-FY16.

“We choose to be conservative as the plant may only start to contribute earnings in FY18 and Cypark has not disclosed much detail on the profitability of the plant. However, our SOP-based target price and dividend yield forecast indicate a potential 10% return on the stock’s current price,” said CIMB Research.


Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/03/31/cimb-research-retains-add-for-cypark/#TlPjlqg3gSY31rfe.99

Star dividend players

Friday, 31 March 2017





PETALING JAYA: Star Media Group Bhd is ranked among the top companies on Bursa Malaysia for consistent dividend payouts and positive operating cash flows over the last 10 years.

The publisher of The Star newspaper has a rolling four-quarter dividend yield of 7.34% with a dividend payout ratio of 120.88%, according to statistics compiled by independent research firm equitiestracker.com.

The latest dividend paid out by Star Media Group was nine sen per share that was announced along with its first-quarter results on Feb 27. The shares went ex-dividend on March 29 and the dividends will be paid on April 18.

Due to its consistent dividend payouts over the last 10 years, Star Media Group’s shares are largely held by institutions such as the Employees Provident Fund, Lembaga Tabung Haji (LTH), Great Eastern Life Assurance (M) Bhd and AIA Bhd.


Star Media Group’s shares have been steadily on the rise since the beginning of the year, with total year-to-date gains of slightly over 7%.

It launched its own video-on-demand service through dimsum.my last year as part of the second phase of its plans to embrace digital technology. The bulk of its earnings are still from the print and digital media.

CYL Corp Bhd, a manufacturer of plastic packaging products, topped the table with the best dividend payout ratio and operating profit, as well as positive cash flow over the last 10 years.

CYL has a dividend yield of 8.58% with a payout ratio of 239.72%.

In the financial year ended Dec 31, 2016, the company paid out a dividend of six sen per share, and in 2015, five sen.

Formosa Prosonic Industries Bhd, a company that manufactures sound systems, came in at third spot for its consistent dividend payouts.

The company, which has its manufacturing facilities in Port Klang and Sungai Petani, has a dividend yield of 6.41% and a payout ratio of 109.48%.

In its latest fourth quarter ended Dec 31, Formosa declared a dividend of six sen per share that went ex on Wednesday, with the dividends to be paid out on April 18.

Uchi Technologies Bhd was ranked the fourth-best company for its consistent dividend payouts and positive operating cash flow. The coffee machine maker, which also exports its products overseas, has a dividend yield of 6.14% and a dividend payout ratio of 80.88%.

It declared a final dividend of eight sen per share when it announced its fourth-quarter results last month.

The company also has several institutional funds such as LTH, Eastbow International Ltd and several Public Mutual funds, among others, as its shareholders with a sizeable stake.

Magnum Bhd came in fifth in terms of generosity in dividends on the list of companies on Bursa Malaysia. The numbers forecast operator had a dividend yield of 6.07% last year and a dividend payout ratio of 96.94%.


Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/03/31/star-dividend-players/#TBe3IkaBLpkfqZpi.99

曾淵滄﹕平均成本法無懼波動

文章日期:2017年3月31日

【明報專訊】股市升升跌跌,能力高、運氣好的人低買高賣,能力低、運氣差的人高買低賣,於是平均成本法就成了另一種選擇,當投資者沒有信心捕捉低位入市時,可以選擇每個月選固定的一天,可以是每月的1號、可以是每月的8號、每月的20號……就在那一天一個固定的時間,可以是固定在上午11時入市買股票,連續數年之後才考慮賣掉,或可持續20年、30年、40年……為將來退休儲蓄投資。

月供股票 期望長期回報

不少銀行都會提供這樣的月供股票計劃,月供股票實際上就是平均成本法,每個月固定的日期、固定的時間買股票,所買的股票有些廉宜有些貴,廉宜與貴平均起來,就是不貴也不廉宜,也就是說不會是低買高賣,也不會是高買低賣,而是期望長期的回報。月供股票每月投資固定金額,有時買多一些股票,有時買少一些股票,股價上升時買少一些,股價下跌時買多一些,選擇銀行月供股票其中一個好處,是可以買賣碎股。

月供股票最好是長期投資,供到你退休時為止,每年也應該檢討一次每月供款,可以隨着收入增加而增加投資額,以配合自己的儲蓄計劃。

只買不賣 股息才是真正利潤

月供股票應該選什麼股票?我認為最理想是選收息股、藍籌收息股,為什麼?因為收息是長期投資者最終的目標,股價有升有跌,長期投資者不會在升升跌跌的過程中又買又賣,而是只買不賣,因此,如果股價上升也不賣,那麼,股價上升並不會帶來實際的、可以放入口袋的利潤,只有股息才是真正的利潤,股息可以提出來享用,又或以股代息,可以委託托銀行將股息加入下一次月供時買股票。

收息股也應該選擇長線股價會上升的股份,也就是那些股息穩定、收入長期有增長的企業。也許港鐵(0066)、領展(0823)、中電(0002)是3種收息股的最佳代表。

港鐵領展中電 是最佳代表

港鐵是半壟斷生意,巴士、小巴、電車、的士雖是競爭者,但是港鐵依然有很強的競爭優勢。加上港鐵除了鐵路運輸收票價之外,另一個更重要的收入是開發車站上蓋物業,就算樓價下跌,也一樣利潤豐厚,絕對不會虧本,因為港鐵不必出錢,而是自動擁有車站上蓋的土地開發權,再找地產開發商合作,只賺不賠。

領展則是盈利年年上升的房託股,因為無論香港經濟好壞,領展年年也可以加租,之所以可以加租,是因為過去目前所收的租金都低於市值租金,仍有加租的空間。而中電也是從事壟斷業務,利潤更受到港府的合約保護,當然年年賺錢。

大學教授

[曾淵滄 滄海明珠]

http://www.mpfinance.com/fin/columnist2.php?col=1463481132566&node=1490900178855&issue=20170331

周顯:「洗米華頭馬」兩大賣點

文章日期:2017年3月31日

【明報專訊】2017年,我最看好的股票,就是太陽世紀集團(1383)。這一間由澳門猛人周焯華擁有的公司,即將改名為「太陽城」,也即是周焯華王國的旗艦,因此,我有理由相信,它將會逐步注入集團的主要業務,最終成為一間幾百億元市值的上市公司,因此我一直持有這股票,希望可以得到5倍至10倍的利潤。

不過,這並非今日本欄的主題。日前,它公布了一則消息:自2017年起,盧啟邦獲委任為該公司的執行董事。根據披露易的公告,盧啟邦的履歷是:37歲,持有加拿大溫尼伯大學之文學士學位,為太陽城集團之首席投資總監,一直參與太陽城集團海外業務之業務發展,亦負責太陽城集團之公司企業管理及併購,具有博彩業經驗,並曾經在香港和美國多間上市公司任職高層。根據一位學生發過來的手機信息,則形容他是「洗米華頭馬」。

顏值同洗米華有得揮

至於我本人,則早在十多年前,已經認識盧啟邦,大家有很多共同朋友,都是市場上的青年才俊,至於他的工作能力,以及在市場上的關係網絡,自然也不用多說了。

以上都沒什麼大不了,甚至是升5倍至10倍的股票,每年數目也有雙位數,值得提的,反而是兩點:

第一,他的顏值,應該是上市公司董事中的前十名之內,同其老闆周先生絕對有得揮,有圖有真相,大家上網一找,便可看到。根據我對「新聞價值」的經驗,這肯定比股價更受到公眾的注意。

第二,盧啟邦在去年澳門Formula E電動方程式賽車挑戰賽中,擊敗了錢嘉樂和方中信,取得了冠軍,這應該也是比炒股票更有新聞價值的故事吧。

[周顯 投資二三事]

http://www.mpfinance.com/fin/columnist2.php?col=1463481127012&node=1490900177810&issue=20170331

Thursday, March 30, 2017

冷眼新书《孙子股市兵法》书评:有一些新梗 但很多都是老梗 (part 1)

Author: kakashit | Publish date: Mon, 30 Jan 2017, 10:40 AM



这是我磨到烂的冷眼第一本《30年股票投资心得》



这是我获得前辈亲笔签名的第二本《股票投资正道》

冷眼曾多次在过去的著述与专栏应用《孙子兵法》的名句。对于我们这些受中文教育的子弟来说,除了《三国演义》外,接触最多的就是《孙子兵法》了。对于这些古书玄之又玄的道理,总是有着莫名的吸引力。如今,冷爷不但要把古书的理论给复活,还要应用在西方发明的资本主义的最高等产物--股市,那么我就要验证这第三本本书有多靠谱。

第一章:少算不胜,何况无算

首先,冷眼肯定是个研究地皮的老行尊,已经多次在过去的文章中提到种植业和产业了,想不到在第三本新书还是老调重弹。

已经在第一本书《30年股票投资心得》161页 3.2c怎样评估种植股:详细教导怎样算出一间种植股的地每英亩值多少钱,再与市价相比,你就能知道自己买地开垦,还是投资于种植股划算。

就算你没有这一本书,你也能在网上找到冷眼的专栏。

种植业

你也可以拥有油棕园

东方不败–棕油

买油棕股留子孙

产业

屋业利润知多少?

土地永远是好投资

产业股被低估

3000令吉可买多少地?

冷爷应该为我们开示,现在的产业价值是否已经泡沫化?是否会重演2008年美欧房市的崩盘,或者是香港2003年沙士病毒期间楼市的崩盘?

3.12 地者,险易死生也

这八大行业,冷眼在过去的文章都有cover了,为何不告诉我们整个油气股的产业链是怎样运作的?

既然油气业已经跌到谷底了,冷眼应该告诉我们fpso是怎么运作的。

为什么油价从30美元升到50美元,许多油气公司才开始破产?

又或者是发电厂,污水处理的turnkey工程,大道公司的收费合约(Ekovest)。到底要如何知道那一条大道是赚钱的。

现在已经是智能手机的时代。为何同样是电子股,Inari走上坡;Gtronic走下坡。

成功转型做汽车大头灯led的如Kesm、JHM才成功,其他的做什么sensor就看不到钱。

这些都是必须个别案例个别分析,能够用孙子兵法来解释吗?

第二章:费留

确实,投资股票要有一套周而复始,屡试不爽的方法,才能确保资本能够不断地成长。不能说这一战赢了,下一站又不知从何开始,必须要有可持续性。赌博为何不可行?就是因为没有可持续性。

在第71页,很明显他讲的人物就是iCap的陈鼎武,Tan Teng Boo。不知道为什么到现在还有人把他当神来拜,股价依然高居不下,每年坐收几百万的年薪。他的工作不就是你我一样,滑动电脑或手机来进行买卖。

以为自己不穿西装结领带、不梳理头发,就是个与众不同的反向投资者,还整天把自己跟巴菲特相提并论,真的是不知丑、不知所谓。大家都懂巴菲特从不预测大市的走向,单单是这点,双方的投资理论就南辕北撤了。

2.4 防污八法 冷股勿买

88 页、冷门股不能买?我最喜欢就是买冷门股。冷门股指的就会交投稀少,买价和卖价的差距很大的counter。

比如说家私股Tafi去年的买卖价差是30仙与35仙之间,如果你想要直接买入,就只能吃35仙的票,想要直接卖出就只能吃30仙的票,一买一卖就15%。

我的策略是:

如果你要进场,你就排在31仙,通常等两个星期就会有股东把票给卖给你。

然后你要套利就把卖价设在34仙,通常要一个月才卖得出。

那么在两个月内,你就能赚到3仙,约10%。是不是比放3个月短期FD好?

Tafi, mpcorp, oversea, kpscb, panpage, picorp等都是我玩过的冷门股,这些股票背后都有硬资产支撑,所以不会有突然倒闭的风险。

买冷门股其实是散户的特权和优势。那些基金经理想要买都不可以因为必须遵守国行设定的规条,特别是只能购买流通量高的股票,因为怕基金客户挤提,那么投资组合也要跟着套现,把钱退回给客户,特别绊手绊脚。

买冷门股的前提是不能借钱买,不急着等钱用,要像钓鱼的人般有耐性,钓到就开心,钓不到也无所谓。

3.1 策之而知得失之计

114 页、看美国,更要看中国,世界第二大经济体,我国最大的出口国,占了总出口量的两成,是我们的金主。

这几年来,中国建商大力来马发展,隆新高铁,TRX金融性,柔佛伊斯干达特区等大量的硬体投入。中国已经不在经济上自我保护,而是透过一带一路放眼全世界,驱动全球的经济前景。(os:庆幸我是受中文教育的)。

形知而知死生之地

115页、当你不是很确定,直觉上又很想买入的时候,买少少来试探是很重要,因为拥有,才会有切身之痛。拳击手也会用jab来试探对手,看可不可以全力进攻。

有了股份,你自然会关心股价的起落,跟进公司的进展。信我,当你买入股票过后,你肯定会有新的发现,特别是不利的因素。

等你真的找不到任何陷阱,才可放心大批买入。

道德观念,先入为主的印象

有许多投资者对官联企业都带有刻板印象,认为这些公司都是靠裙带关系拿合约,不具竞争力,无法为股东赚取回酬。结果他们错过了很多好机会。

好像Gunung和Destini这两只小型的官联股都是很不错的。他们既有先天的优势,后天又肯努力。

又或者是笔者,本着蓝筹股公司的市场饱和,本大利小、只能收息而不屑一顾。

结果还是有稳定又高成长潜能的蓝筹股,尽管媒体一再报导,我就是不理会,结果我就这样错过了Ajinomoto,Panamy松下电器这两个实力派好股。

3.5 先知必取于人

值得补充的是,多去跑一年一度的股东大会,会让你有意想不到的收获。

多跟董事和其他股东攀谈,你可以了解到不只是该公司,而是其他同行甚至是整个行业的资讯。

有些董事部就连一年只有一次的股东大会都希望会议赶快结束,不想要股东发言,随便敷衍股东的提问,那么你就心里有数这家公司到底值不值得投资了。

笔者的一些小贴士:有些公司喜欢在股东大会后公布公司的季报。如果你看到董事个个都眉开眼笑,非常健谈,那么你就能大概猜到即将公布的业绩是不错的。

待续……

冷眼新书《孙子股市兵法》书评:有一些新梗 但很多都是老梗 (part 2)

冷眼新书《孙子股市兵法》书评:有一些新梗 但很多都是老梗 (part 2)
Author: kakashit | Publish date: Thu, 30 Mar 2017, 07:59 PM

Part 1请按:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kakashit/114895.jsp

Pg. 138 先知必取于人

有些人会听信风水师的意见,今年旺木就买木材家私股,明年旺金就买金属矿产股,这些都是废的。

要买股票,就要学习一切股票有关的知识。除了商科,学习历史人文也对股票有很大的帮助。

但是也不需要环游世界来增广见闻,家里有Internet就可以了。正所谓秀才不出门,能知天下事。你要上Lecture不需要跑到哈佛,Youtube就有了。

我的看法是就读商科确实是对股票投资有很大的帮助,但是读完大学第一年就很够用了。

首先要把会计学的基础给打好,你不需要懂得做账,但是你要很清楚做账的概念。

比如说Depreciation,是如何反映在income statement, balance sheet还有cash flow statement。

网上的资料太多了,要懂得筛选,还是回到basic,丛书开始看起。Skip掉技术图表派,你就可以省掉一半的learning curve。

接下来就是不断地实战了,经验只能从实战中获取。

学股票是典型的多劳多得,慢慢就会练就股票反射神经,特别是当你找到一个好的投资机会,你的大脑就会分泌胺多酚,让你雀跃无比。

Pg. 155 蛛丝马迹

每当公司在展望(Prospect)里提到Challenging,大家不要被这个字眼给吓着,难道每个公司都讲challenging,我们就不投资了?

如果你随便问一个商人行情如何,就算行情很好,他也会跟你讲生意难做,因为怕你来做,本来好做都变不好做了。

除非是金字塔传销、保险、Forex、快速致富,才会告诉你我有多赚钱,你不加入就是笨。

杖而立者,饥也

把自己公司的营运大楼卖掉,然后再重新租回来是否是财务陷困的表现?

我不认为,那种不断要发附加股或私下配售的才是。

脱售产业一来可以释放产业的价值,二来不用向股东来要钱。

Notion就是很好的例子,前几年因为投资错误以及护盘方向与大市搞反,亏蚀了很多钱,即使令吉贬值也无法受惠于出口。

如今把产业卖掉再租回,有足够的资金来应付营运开销,等所有失败的投资与护盘慢慢的勾销完毕,获利能力便慢慢恢复了。

所以冷眼看到的是危机,我看到的是转机。

另外,人力资源外包公司Scicom就完全没有自己的商业大楼,全部都是租的。特别是现在油气业不景,廉价grade A的办公楼到处都是。

在最近的股东大会有股东问道:“为何你们不要拥有自己的一栋大楼?业务那么庞大又年年赚钱……”

董事很轻松的回答:“因为现在租比买更划算、更便宜,而且资金也不用被绑死,有能力派发更多股息予股东。”

Pg. 166 数赏者,窘也

有很多esos我是看不过眼的,羊毛终须出在羊身上。

奖励员工可以有很多方式,ESOS是我认为万不得已的奖励方式。员工整天都在看股价上下,肯定会无心工作的。

更主要的是董事用低廉的价格来增加对公司的控制权的手段,散户的话事权便越来越少了。

例如Aemholding这间公司不是很赚钱,董事却不断地以面值10仙来发出ESOS,散户还没有rasa,不知道自己的股权被侵蚀,凶兆。


还有最近,有间生化科技公司Bio Alpha ,前景是很不错,问题30%的ESOS等于是严重的灌水,稀释散户的股权及每股获益。

如果公司年年赚钱倒是无所谓,所以大家一定要把ESOS的多寡纳入买股考量的要点。

168 数罚者,困也

“万通科技(MTOUCHE,0092,创业板科技组)拟落实削资5仙、股票2合1,以及以2配6送3比例配售附加股和凭单等系列企业活动……”

起初刚看到这类型的企业活动,我也很想搞懂这一切,但是后来发现没有这个必要。

因为搞得越复杂,一定是要忽悠股东,然后又很好辩解,是不利的讯号。

Sanichi 我就中招了,为什么要拆股又要合股?其实就是公司要缩水,还要花钱请投行搞这一系列的活动。

好像最近的马股大咖UMW就搞了一系列活动来脱售其油气业臂膀,美其名是等值交换,让你重燃希望,但其实就是把这块烫手山芋丢给你接。

Pg. 226 军无百疾,是谓必胜

汽车在马拉西亚是必须品,也是耐用品。马路上还是有很多20多年老在路上行驶。而且每个花园区几乎都有大大小小的修车店提供服务。

还有许许多多的二手车可以买,也有可能中国品牌的汽车会大举涌入我国的汽车市场,就像贱价钢铁般的输出。

车贷是继房贷之后大马人最大的负担,行情转差的时候,还是不要乱买汽车股。

另外,汽车品牌之间也不断的竞争,优胜略汰。

我挑战冷爷敢不敢买代理Nissan车的Tanchong以及代理Mazda车的Bermaz?

Tanchong今年来的业绩由盈转亏,Nissan车驾驶舒适,可惜造型很土,不受年轻人的青睐,市占率每况愈下。

Bermaz则市占率开始饱和,喜欢买Madza车的消费者都买了,有往下坡走的迹象。

Pg. 227 合于利而动

Well,这根本就是废话,世界上谁不是为了利益才行动,就算是积德行善,你也是为了能够投好胎上天堂。

我们不是要问会有盈利吗?这是谁都想要,而是要问怎样才会有盈利?

我们怎样知道Gtronic和UMW会否反弹还是继续坠落?你要告诉我原因啊,等到业绩出来一切都太迟了。

写到这篇我开始觉得冷眼有点糊涂了。

231 天下皆下品,唯有股票高

股票是智力的高级应用平台。

在马拉西亚,我们是二等公民,固打比别人少,买屋子比别人贵,ipo人家优先,公共大学人家先进。

所以我们一定要利用我们智慧在股票上分享国家的经济蛋糕,不要整天就只会买屋子来给律师赚、政府抽税。

232 政举之日

没错,学股票要上手很难,头那两年也是会经常碰壁,每个人都好像专家,讲起来都有自己的一套。到最后还不如靠自己,因为别人不会对你的股票盈亏负责。

所以学习股票的道路是非常低孤独,除了打了DOTA看足球,我身边没有一个朋友对股票有兴趣,还好有i3的股友们。

在i3上多看多读,让我在股票学习上有了飞跃性的成长,少缴很多学费。

此外,I3每天的文章就好像连续剧,单看标题就可以笑餐饱。

236 践墨随敌

问题是油价从100美元跌到去30美元,油气股也会应声下跌,你怎样跟股市斗快?

请问当时候油价跌到60美元会回弹还是继续往下走?

我只是知道当时候没有一个专家能够预测到油价竟然跌破30美元。

学股票最忌就是事后诸葛,我们应该注重因而不是果,有因才有果过,不要倒果为因。

253 欲涉者,待其定也

谈到买进的方法,没有人能够买在最低点,我也不能,正所谓“一山还有一山高,一股还有一股低”。

对于这种情况我会使用拉低成本买入法,这一招是foolproof的,因为无论你多会捞底,股票总还是会跌。既然预了还是会跌倒不如分阶段买入,

在上网股票交易费相当便宜的年代,这招很好使,同时也当做是替自己买个保险。

当然,我也有失手的时候。当我以为油价已经回稳了就买入现金流不错的油气股Perisai,想不到拖到现在才爆出个债券违约危机,这时候我肯定是不敢再加码了。

另外就是太阳板制造商Tekseng,我本以为裁员的消息是买入的机会,想不到真的是因为太能电板的价格下跌所造成的。

259 决积水于千仞之谷

哈哈,久不久就会传出股市崩盘论,黑天鹅效应,鬼还没有出来就已经喊怕。

从英国宣布脱欧到川普当选总统,全球股市始终都还没有崩盘。

“上帝要人灭亡 必先使其疯狂”

我个人认为股市要崩盘,必先来到不合理的高峰。当买菜的阿姨还有的士佬都会买股票而且都很赚钱的时候就是征兆了。

无论是熊市还是牛市还是牛皮带稳都要回到基本面,只要被低估才买,被高估就不买。

还有就是要有股息收,才能熬过严冬,盼望春天的到来。

283页 以正合,以奇胜

阴阳是所有中华文化的核心思想,凡是任何东西有其正面必有其背面,所有东西归纳起来都离不开阴阳。

孙子兵法作为一本中华文化的经典,当然也有很多阴阳的调调。

奇正是冷眼在此书提出的一个非常崭新的概念,过往的著述都没有提过,我认为这已经是进阶以上的课程。

投资是正,投机是奇;基本面是正,图表派是奇;普通股是正,凭单是奇……

如果是循序渐进,所有的竞技多数是以和局收场。冷眼所指的“奇”其实就是剑走偏锋,可以减少不确定性,提高胜算。其坏处就是要是被对方试穿,暴露出弱点,反加利用,就很容易被打到。

比如说李宗伟就很懂得判断出界球。一般上保险起见,都是把球给打回去。若球真的出界了,你就省时省力的得到一分,这就是出奇制胜。当然如果碰到白线一点点,你就铁定会输掉一分。

回到股票的案例,如果有独立思考的人都知道Jaks不是个好投资,而我也多次在i3该版面表达了我的看法。

可是当你看到有个大声公开始入住Jaks,然后到处跟人家说Jaks是很好的投资,随着大市对中小股的热捧,那么你也不妨随波逐流的买入,这就是“奇”的用法、

无论是正是奇,目标是一致的,就是获取盈利额,并且把盈利最大化,风险最小化,从中取得最佳的平衡点。

当然,这一章节冷眼阐述的太少了,在我看来可以另外著述。

286页 以迂为直 以患为利

冷爷知不知道现在有一个应用程序叫Waze,只要输入目的地查一查,你就知道哪一条路是最省时便捷的。

很多人也不是笨蛋,知道走高速大道的好处,高速大道车流量多了,过路费是一定要给,但也不一定好走。

所以学股票最终是要善于利用科技,我们不能只是依赖三月发布一次的季报,一年发布一次的年报,又或者是投行的分析报告。

比如说我要查找一只股票,除了官网Bursa,我必用到的股票资讯网站就是i3 forum及Malaysiastockbiz。

Bursamarketplace是Bursa马股交易所所提供的免费股票资讯平台,之前还有请一些艺人来推广。Bursamarketplace使用的是Reuter所提供的数据。

如果个人签购Reuters,Bloombeg这些大咖所提供的股票终端机,月费动辄都要三千美元起跳。如今不用钱就能搜索马股900多家公司的财政资料,做人真的是要懂得感恩。

还有我最喜欢用的klse.my来了解公司的内幕人士动态,可惜现在已经关闭了。

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kakashit/99303.jsp

尽管网络世界提供了那么多的免费便利,但还是有很多人不善于利用,诚然可惜。

公式是死的,公司是活的。一次性的暴利或亏损很容易影响评分。所以要懂得判断,不然赚钱的机会就会擦肩而过。

我的理解就是一只好股只要被大众发觉,投行陆续分析,媒体争相报道,网友热烈讨论。

那么你就不妨继续持有,即使是被高估了。

我抛一个问题给大家,AWC是否有此迹象呢?

一致认定该股从合理价位起到严重被高估,不断创新高,高居不下,然后毫无迹象突然暴跌也不出奇。

302页 东于九天之上 主动出击

与其被动等人出击,不如自己带头。以写文章让大家发现好股,让股价更加快速回到合理价位,那么就不用等太久,这是双赢的局面。

我的成功例子有AWC,PMcorp,Mieco,Gunung,马面粉,Destin,Ajiya等……

当然,共享平台也会有很多害群之马。他们通常会用非常耸动的标题“你不买xxx,你就会后悔”,“苏州最后一挺船”等等,然后又会whatapp, telegram,facebook给你目标价,然后这一切都是免费。

最近,大马证券委员会便警告大众要小心这些pump and dump activity,以及要对付这些炒家。至于我则行得正,企得正,毫不担心。

分析报告是两面刃,可以帮助你分析,但绝对不能帮助你独立思考。

在这里我想读者提供一个贴士,分析报告来来去去就是分析过去,展望未来。

大家必须要着重于分析过去,展望的东西信一半就好。油气业就是在展望过于美好的情况下爆破,看会以前的新闻你就会觉得很讽刺。

股市的反应总是慢半拍,很多时候就算业绩出了也不是马上就会起。

股票就是个很奇怪的地方,明知道开采了还是能够中奖。

有些人把这个现象叫做,不具效率的市场。唯有不具效率,我们价值投资者才能从中赚取差价。

310页 见胜不过众人之所知

很多人都知道投资产业,以租养屋,20年后,屋子就是你的了的算法。

然后凭着人口只会越来多,地只会越来越小的老观念,大家都拼命存钱赶上这帮死亡列车。

大家要知道所贷款的数额是固定的,但是利率是浮动的。

现在的利率只有3%,已经低到不能再低了,美国联邦储备已经两次调高利率了,国行却纹风不动。

下行空间有限,上行空间却无间。20年供期的慢慢,随便一年利率大涨,都要你蓝瘦。

很多大马的上市公司都保留了很多现金,几乎是净现金,无他,因为吃过97年金融风暴的亏,至今仍然历历在目。

十年河东十年河西,金河广场现在都已人潮希落,除了外国客,也看不到任何本地客了。长期投资产业不一定包赚的。

从会计师到鸡饭佬都懂这一条道理。所以买产业上车已经不是个好投资。

《孙子股市兵法》我该不该买?

第一本教基础,第二本讲心法,第三本我实在不知道其定位在哪儿。

一百三十块马币的书价,我令愿跟朋友吃一顿好的。

不过,如果是站在支持本地的中文书,以及唯一的一本价值投资法书的立场,那么两百块也是值得买。

毕竟现在的中文股票书籍实在有太多滥竽充数的了,什么史上最伟大的操盘手,三十条股票包赚黄金法则……实际上是要诱导你上昂贵的课程。

最后,笔者也是写作的人,知道写作的辛苦。以冷眼的财富与高龄,实在没有必要那么辛苦出书赚钱,他一定是要完成自己的心愿以及回馈社会,特别是我们炎黄子孙,才会坚持出第三本书。

所以我们一定要多多支持本地创作。

--完--

[转贴] 選股與估值 - 價值投資的得勝之道 - 止凡

Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Thu, 30 Mar 2017, 10:08 AM

2017年3月29日星期三

今天談談鍾記的新書,這是這位以股票達至財務自由的退休人士第二本個人著作,剛出版不久,現在仍是各大書局中被搶購的財經書。



感覺上,鍾兄與我是不同年代的人,他比我年長,處於不同的人生階段,亦生活在不同的世界,因為他是真正的金融專業,做過基金分析員、公司買手,與我日常生活圈子可謂南轅北轍,如果沒有blog這個網絡世界,我大概這一輩子也不會認識一個這樣的人。

還記得第一次看到鍾兄的blog,感覺內容很專業,專業得有點冷冰冰,冒昧建議他可在blog內加入一些常看的blog友連結,及後他真的漸漸加入了幾位blogger的連結。之後,巴黎兄搞了好幾回直播,於是我大膽向巴黎兄推薦了鍾兄,當時的確有點私心,因為想借這機會看看鍾兄是一個怎樣的人,也借機了解一下他的背景。如果大家有看過該段巴黎兄直播的話,會看到我在直播時留言問鍾兄能否講述個人背景,正是這個意思。

後來也約了一些止凡飯局,見過鍾兄真人,感覺一點也不是冷冰冰的分析員,沒有ibanker般給人酒色財氣的氣場,而是好丈夫、好男人,夜了要回家,當談起一些違法違規的事情,更會話「不可以的」、「不應該的」,直正過直正。這樣的性格,平易近人,令我更喜歡結識他,至今成了「來自另一個世界」的好友,感恩。

其實,如鍾兄般的高手,是技術還是運氣,信也好,不信也好,他早以從股市中賺夠,不到五十歲(寫序時誤以為他年過五十,已被鍾兄指正)與太太過著退休生活。自己賺夠,何需分享呢?何需出書?何需搞課程?我自己也愛分享,大概會想得通。然而,這樣有料之人又如此願意分享的實在不多,我們應該珍惜。

鍾兄分享的東西就放在眼前,能吸取多少就靠我們自己了,我就採取積極態度去吸吮,雖然始終他功力深厚得非我能想像,盡力啦,哈哈。

小弟又有幸幫鍾兄這本著作寫下序言,貼出來分享一下:

又來了,早就知道鍾兄一定會出版更多著作,終於等到他的第二本著作出爐。還記得上年鍾兄出版的第一本著作在書局中十分暢銷,多家書局把它放於當眼處,亦不時見到讀者拿起閱讀,始終收錄了鍾兄二十年的功力,每位投資者不得不收藏一本。

看見鍾兄這年的發展,五十多歲就正式退休,除繼續更新個人blog與blog友保持交流外,還出版著作與搞投資課程。與他交談,他指退休後生活相當充實,與另一半享受著退休生活,可說是展開了人生的第二個旅程,我作為後輩,也會參考他的人生計劃,即使退休也要過得快樂充實。

眼見鍾兄與出版社辦投資課程,一班爆完又一班,上完堂的學生更可以被加進課程的whatsapp群組內,如今桃李滿門,群組內交流熱烈,實在厲害。我也曾經有幸上過鍾兄的其中一課,雖然那是一堂四課中的最淺一課,但亦足以令我感受到鍾兄深厚的投資功力,課程節奏很快,三小時很快就把整套估值方法與例子說了一遍,令我非常有得著。

當我回看這本著作初稿,其內容令我回憶起當晚上鍾兄的課程內容,貫徹始終的理念,鮮明正接的方法,絕對能幫讀者建立一個有系統的估值方法。在上一本著作我也提過,近年已經鮮有閱讀本地作者的財經著作,但鍾兄出版的,我一定會惜讀與收藏。若你是一位股票投資者,無論你的背景如何,看了鍾兄的著作,定必有所得著。

張貼者: 止凡 21:55

http://cpleung826.blogspot.my/2017/03/blog-post_29.html

ARANK's A-RANKed Mission

Author: Gainvestor | Publish date: Thu, 30 Mar 2017, 11:17 AM
You can click HERE to link to my blogspot. Thank you.



ARANK company in Selangor

ARANK through his 100% owned subsidiary, Formosa Shyen Horng Metal SB, is principally involved in the manufacturing and marketing of aluminium billets which is the core business of the group. In 1998, Formosa had an installed capacity of 12,000 metric tonnes per annum of aluminium, now, as written in the latest Annual Report 2016, currently, the installed capacity had grown to 120,000 metric tonnes per annum. Being the largest manufacturer and supplier of aluminium billets, and one of the leading of suppliers of aluminium extrusion billets in Asia, the growth for ARANK in 19 years is 900%. From here, we can see that the demand of aluminium had skyrocketed in the past 20 years, and ARANK had been there, feeding and supplying the skyrocketing demand of aluminium in the industry.

But first, we need to understand how aluminium is produced. We can take a look at this youtube video[2]. To make it short, the raw material of aluminium is bauxite. Bayer process is a process to refine bauxite to produce alumina (aluminium oxide). There are only 30% - 54% of alumina in the bauxite[3]. And aluminium is extracted from the alumina by electrolysis, separating aluminium metal in the negative electrode and sink to the bottom of the tank, while oxygen at the positive electrode[4]. All of these processes involved massive machineries and facilities.




The center bottom, aluminium extrusions; the right is the aluminium billets. (Diameter ranging from 3 inches to 11 inches and longest length up to 6 meters)

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The process and machineries involved in aluminium

ARANK had the integrated facilities, which include: Wagstaff "Airslip" billet casting mould system, melting furnaces with regenerating burners, tilting holding furnace and fully automated vertical direct chilled hydraulic-controlled casting systems from Australia, filters, in-line degassing machines, homogenising furnaces and cooling booths, and automated billet-sawing machines. ARANK achieved the ISO 9001:2008 certification, meaning to say they emphasize on the quality of its product. ARANK even had numerous testing equipment to inspect and evaluate on the quality in the casting and homogenising processes. The products are the aluminium billets, ranging in diameter from 3 inches to 11 inches and any cut length up to 6 meter.

ARANK's another subsidiary is HongLee Group (M) SB (55%). The principal activity is manufacturing and marketing of all types of aluminium and glass fittings and other related activities[5]. HongLee has 11 dealers over Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia with 14 showrooms in total. They are determined towards continuously developing, expanding and improving our distribution networks. Their own in-house brands are "HongLee" and "Apresi", and products include Apresi Kitchen & storage solution, high performance folding & sliding door, high performance window, pergola & sun louvres, grille & fence and shower & insect screen. ARANK had disposed HongLee Group in January 2017.

ARANK currently exporting about 30% of its production. Its export markets include Africa, Europe, South Asia and South East Asia.

Why is aluminium important in our daily life. Below are some points[5]:

Strong and durable providing a range of long lasting design options
Corrosion resistant qualities and resistant to weathering under a range of harsh environmental conditions.
Hassle-free maintenance – won't swell, crack, split or warp. Free from Termites infestion threat.
Non-combustible material which is safe even in high temperature environment , does not burn or release toxic fumes.
Environmentally sustainable material and infinitely recyclable.
Aesthetic and uniform surface finish quality

1. Fundamental Analysis





Revenue and Net Profit from 2013 to 2017*

ARANK's revenue had been steady since 2013. And for 2017, it will also be a steady year if ARANK continue to maintain the sales volume. As for net profit, ARANK recorded an improved +54% from RM10,316k to RM15,838k. In 2017, ARANK had only announced 2 quarters of financial result. ARANK managed to maintain the net profit margin by around 2 - 3%.

In the Annual Report 2016, Mr Chairman Dato’ Shahrir Bin Abdul Jalil mentioned about the risks or factors faced by ARANK, which were aluminium price, currencies and also natural gas pricing[1]. All of these are concerns faced in the year of 2016, however the company still able to curb the situation. As mentioned by the Managing Director, Mr Tan Wan Lay, ARANK was able to achieve the satisfactory results by improving the efficiency and recover by controlling the production overhead and transportation costs. The upgrades that had been done in 2016 was improving the homogenise furnaces to increase efficiency in the usage of electricity through the production process as well as an additional one unit of dust control system to ensure cleaner discharge into the environment.

Some background about Mr Tan Wan Lay. He had more than 20 years of experience in aluminium extrusion industry. He joined LBALUM and also PMETAL before setting up the Formosa Shyen Horng Metal which is also known as ARANK. Mr Tan had a wide knowledge and experience in the aluminium sector, which can be noticed from his past experiences. When we checked the top 30 shareholders list, LBALUM holds 1.5 Million shares, which is 1.25% of total shares. When we read through the QR or the AR, eventhough both of them are competitors, in terms of the business, they have close relationship with each other. ARANK sold their products to LBALUM and vice-versa. If your company's shares are bought by your competitor, i anticipate good things in it.




ARANK also sell their products to LBALUM

When i check through the google map, both of the factories are actually near to each other, that's why they are able to purchase and sell their products to each other. Other investment firms which are holding ARANK are City Data Limited, Fairway Assets Investment Limited, Mablewood International Holding Limited, Mayer Capital Holding Ltd.

Distance between LBALUM and ARANK factories in Googlemaps

Q2 2017 Result




Quarterly Revenue and Net Profit[6]

Revenue decreased -7% qoq and -11% yoy respectively while net profit decreased -19% qoq and +10% yoy respectively[6]. The reason for the decrease for revenue is due to lower business volume for Q2 despite the average selling prices were higher. A thing to note here, the average selling prices were higher which is related to global aluminium price. Do notice there is a similarity in the quarter results pattern. The net profit drops from Q1 to Q3 and spiked up in Q4, but if we compare yoy, it is always higher than previous years. The trend had been like that since 2014.

ARANK had disposed its entire 55% equity interest in its subsidiary, HongLee Group for a total cash of RM 2,105k. The announcement was made on 25 January 2017. HongLee had not being delivering satisfactory results, hence the management had decided to dispose it off for good. ARANK is a net cash company with its net cash per share of 0.09. In its prospect, the management is quite honest with the future prospect, underlying that the depreciating RM is good for exports and at the same time, it escalates the costs of doing business arising from costlier raw materials. The volatile aluminium price also adds uncertainty to the decision-making process. These are the risks currently faced by ARANK's management team. Hence, for us, retailers, we will need to monitor the global aluminium price and the forex of USD/RM.

2. Technical Analysis



ARANK Weekly Chart from 2014 till 2017

Let's look at a bigger picture. Recently in the mid of 2016, volumes start to kick in. The reason is due to the rise in global aluminium price. Some investors had already seen the situation and started to accumulate aluminium counters for the past 1 year. Just now we mention about the Q4 result is always the highest for every year. The Q4 result for ARANK is from May to July, announced in the month of September. In 2014, share price spiked up a lot before September; in 2015, share price increased after September; for 2016, share price also went uptrend after September. And September 2017 will be very important.



ARANK Daily Chart

ARANK had been in uptrend since December 2016. The SMA20 first cross over SMA40 in the month of October, then after that, it had been going sideways before spike up in January 2017. With the supports at 1.15 and 1.09, ARANK is poised to go sideway above 1.10. With the recent Q2 results being announced on 29 March 2017, ARANK might be going down tomorrow, after announcing a dull QR. The resistance will be in 1.24. Currently, ARANK is at the position of all time high, if they are able to break 1.24, then they will be ALL TIME HIGH.


ARANK Daily Chart as of 10.35am 30 March 2017

Today (30 March 2017), ARANK gapped down with a high volume. I guess those who bought on the 1 March 2017 had already sold their ARANK shares due to less-excitement results. I make this assumption based on the volumes. Let's see how ARANK closes today. Hopefully to create a hammer with high volume.
3. Projection Analysis

Let's talk about some reasons why we should aim the commodities stocks, or in this case, it will be aluminium. These are all self-observed facts. Please judge and have your own individual thoughts also. I might be wrong.
A) Donald Trump: Make America Great Again




US President Donald Trump - Dont Play Play

Still remember this guy? Yes, he is the US President Donald Trump. "Make America great again", the four words is enough to make the impact in the whole world. Donald Trump had an ambitious to-do list for the next four years: building stronger borders, keeping the country safe against terrorism, producing more jobs, repealing the Affordable Care Act, replacing it with something better, promoting excellence in engineering and science, investing in modern infrastructure[7].

When a country want to invest in modern infrastructure, what is required? You are right, they are steels and aluminiums. When we want to develop a country, equip the infrastructure, we need those materials in building our constructions, pilings, etc. Trump had repeatedly threatened to slap American manufacturers with a border tax if they move jobs and production out of the country and then sell goods back to the United States. With the fear of being charged with high border tax, i guess the companies will continue to set up their factories in US[8]. If DT stood firm by his vision, i believe some commodity price will be in high demand, and also the US economy will be good, and Dow Jones will be good, followed by our FBMKLCI will be good too. (haha, think too far)
B) Global Aluminium Price





Aluminium Price[9]

The aluminium price had increased around 35% since finding its bottom around 1,420. After that, aluminium is in the uptrend and now ready to run over 2,000. The aluminium price went up after the month of January 2017. That is the time when Donald Trump became the US President. Is this coincidence or there's a logic behind? For me, i believe since the share price went up 35%, there must be a valid reason for it. And i think it's related to DT's Make America great again legacy. The demand for aluminium will still be high in the coming months and years.

ARANK's 34% of its revenue is derived from the sales from foreign countries such as South East Asia, Europe and South Asia. But one thing to note from here. The gradual increase of aluminium price is good for ARANK. Imagine now ARANK sold the same quantity of aluminium, the selling price will be higher if compare to previous 6 months. This is also aligned to what we saw in the Q2, 2017. The management mentioned about the higher selling price. But we also need to remember that the volatility of aluminium price will add uncertainty to the management's decision making. But in the future, if aluminium price continues to go up, and ARANK be able to achieve higher sales, things are bright for them.

C) Peer Comparison

A simple peer comparison is done among its competitor. I am going to compare against PMETAL, LBALUM and also ALCOM.

Aluminium Peer Comparison

PMETAL is the dragonhead for the aluminium counters. It got the highest market capitalization, which is around RM 10B. PMETAL had currently expanded to China and are looking to kick start its phase 3 in Samalaju, Sarawak. PMETAL is categorized as upstream, ARANK as mid stream and LBALUM as downstream, (from what i read in The Edge Weekly). LBALUM seems lagging behind in terms of the price, with the PE of 8. The reason why i look into ARANK is because of its high EPS and also high ROE. ROE is one of the most important element to me, because it translates the efficiency of the management in generating more profit with the money shareholders have invested. If compared to the average net profit margin for the recent 3 full years, PMETAL and LBALUM both score the highest scores.





PMETAL Daily Chart





LBALUM Daily Chart





ALCOM Daily Chart

As we can see from PMETAL, LBALUM and ALCOM's chart, similarly to ARANK, the share price gained momentum after the election of Donald Trump as US President, which is aligned with the global aluminium price. Since PMETAL is the dragon head, its movements might also elevate or drag down the share prices for other aluminium counters.

D) Calculating Target Price

The average PE among the aluminium counters is 14.

ARANK had announced 2 quarters of QR, with the cumulative EPS of 7.03 sen. If ARANK continue to maintain the EPS until the end of the year, the projected EPS will be 14.06 sen.

If EPS = 14.06 sen, with the projected PE of 10, the share price is 1.46, round up to 1.50

If EPS = 14.06 sen, with the projected PE of 14, the share price is 1.96, round up to 2.00

Of course, we might also need to monitor:

1. Global aluminium price - the higher the better, however it will be an obstacle for the management to make some critical decision

2. USD/MYR - maintain as it is, the higher it goes, the higher the processing cost however, benefit from forex gain

3. Donald Trump - Make America Great Again, more and more facilities will be built in US

4. PMETAL - If the dragonhead continues to perform better, then the the rest should follow, and not to forget about ARANK.

5. The QR of ARANK - Q1, Q2, Q3 is lower but will spike up in Q4, will the trend continues? If it continues, we can expect the share price to break new high also

Summary:

Can ARANK accomplished his mission? Or if the share price continue to drop, you can just wake me up when September ends...

- ARANK just released its Q2 2017 result, not an exciting result due to the lower sales volume, however the average selling price is higher due to the increment in the global aluminium price.

- The management had taken firm steps by improving the plant operation's efficiency as well as disposing the loss-making HongLee Group and expected to gain RM2 Mil from its disposal.

- Aluminium together with steel are the most important commodities for the country's development and building infrastructure.

- Net cash per share of 0.09

- The management had taken prudent action by upgrading the plant facilities as well as dispose off its subsidiary HongLee at RM2 Mil.

- If we observe the trend, the Q1, Q2 and Q3's net profit will be dropping, spiking up in Q4. The yoy net profits are better than previous years.

- The current support for ARANK is 1.09 with the resistance of 1.24.

- With the current PE of around 8 with high EPS and ROE if compared with its peers PMETAL, ALCOM and LBALUM.

- If we annualized the EPS and take the average PE among aluminium counters, the TP for ARANK is 2.00

- A few things to take note, global aluminium price, USD/MYR, US Donald Trump's policy, PMETAL's movement and also the QR for ARANK.


- **The share price gapped down today with high volume. This is not a plesant sign. However, please conduct your own studies before making any decision.




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Let's Ride the Wind and Gainvest

Gainvestor 10sai

30 March 2017

11.15am
Sources:

[1]: Annual Report 2016: http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5255449
[2]: How Aluminium is Made: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fa6KEwWY9HU&t=1s
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayer_process
[4]: http://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/gcsebitesize/science/add_ocr_pre_2011/chemicals/extractionmetalsrev3.shtml
[5]: http://www.honglee.my/about.html
[6]: http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5379317
[7]: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/how-donald-trump-came-up-with-make-america-great-again/2017/01/17/fb6acf5e-dbf7-11e6-ad42-f3375f271c9c_story.html
[8]: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-threatens-toyota-got-facts-wrong-a7513061.html
[9]: https://www.investing.com/commodities/aluminum-advanced-chart

Something Deceptively Simple May Be Holding You Back by Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.

Feature Article
Something Deceptively Simple May Be Holding You Back
by Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.



One of my clients gave me a book by Carol Dweck called Theories of Self: Their Role in Motivation, Personality, and Development. In it, Dr. Dweck states:

My work is developed around the idea that people develop beliefs that organize their world and give meaning to their experiences. These beliefs may be called meaning systems and different people create different meaning systems.

Wow, I was blown away, I never thought I’d hear a psychologist talk about the importance of beliefs. Many years ago I became disillusioned with the professional field of psychology because it would not study such things. The profession preferred to treat people like a black box studying what went in and what came out (of the black box) without bothering to assess what was going on inside. I loved Neurolinguistic Programming from the start because NLP gave an organization to what happened inside the mind.

I have wondered if psychology would ever change. About five years ago, I attended a graduation dinner for a friend’s daughter. When I learned that she had majored in psychology, I went up to her and asked if she was taught anything in her courses such as, “your beliefs shape your reality and your experience.” Her response was, “Oh, I don’t believe that!” That was enough to suggest to me that nothing had changed. Then suddenly, I read Dweck’s great book on psychological research spanning 20 years that was really all about beliefs. I was blown away.


Much of the book centers around a very simple idea: intelligence. What do you believe about intelligence? Dr. Dweck lists a questionnaire for adult intelligence in the appendix so you can take the test and score yourself. Use the following table:




And then rate your response to each statement:
_____ 1. You have a certain amount of intelligence and you can't really do much to change it.
_____ 2. Your intelligence is something about you that you can’t change very much.
_____ 3. No matter who you are you can significantly change your intelligence level.
_____ 4. To be honest you cannot really change how intelligent you are.
_____ 5. You can always substantially change how intelligent you are.
_____ 6. You can learn new things, but you can’t really change how intelligent you are.
_____ 7. No matter how much intelligence you have you can always change it quite a bit.
_____ 8. You can change even your basic intelligence level considerably.


To score the questionnaire —

First add your total for statements 3, 5, 7, and 8 and put it in the space here. _____

Then add your total for statements 1, 2, 4, and 6 and put it in the space here. _____

Now subtract the second sum from the first sum to calculate your total score. _____

Your total score can range from +20 through -20. High positive and negative scores are obviously in one camp or the other. Scores close to zero are ambiguous.

Those with a positive score tend to believe that intelligence is malleable and can be developed. Dr. Dweck says these people have an incremental theory of intelligence — meaning you can change it. Those with a negative score tend to believe that intelligence is fixed and cannot be changed. She says these people have an entity theory of intelligence … meaning it’s a fixed entity that you can’t do anything about.

The research she has done with these two ideas is amazing. Here’s an example. Suppose you have two groups of students and both groups show equal intelligence initially with a test. One group believes in the incremental theory while the other group believes in the entity theory. Now suppose you give them a series of six easy tasks and then follow those up with a hard task. The hard task is something that children of their age should not be able to do. The net result was that while doing the difficult task, the incremental theory group developed a mastery pattern which included:

  • Gave themselves instructions to improve their performance and did self-monitoring.
  • Said things like “I love a challenge” or “Mistakes are my friends.”
  • Taught themselves new strategies for mastery.
  • Did not consider themselves as failures.

In contrast, the entity group, when doing the difficult task, developed a helplessness pattern which included:

  • Constantly putting themselves down by saying “I’m no good”
  • Viewed their prior successes as a failure, despite evidence to the contrary.
  • Became bored and disinterested
  • And, of course, showed large drops in performance.

It turns out that people who have an entity model of intelligence become concerned about proving or hiding their intelligence. As a result, these people tend to concentrate on looking good. To prove this Dr. Dweck did a study in which those with an entity model of intelligence and those with an incremental model of intelligence were given a choice of three different tasks. Those were: 1) it’s an easy task and you won’t make mistakes; 2) it’s a lot harder than what you are used to, but you will likely do well. These two tasks were considered performance goals with easy and hard levels. The third choice was a challenge goal; 3) your task will be hard, new and different where you might make mistakes but you’ll learn new things.

The research showed that 80% of those with an entity model chose one of the performance goals with 50% of them choosing the easy task and 30% the difficult task. Only 20% chose the challenging task. In contrast, 60% of the people with the incremental model of intelligence chose the challenge task and only 40% chose one of the performance goals.

It turns out that one’s model of intelligence even changes the meaning one gives to words such as effort and failure. Fixed entity people believe failure means having a low IQ and that if you have to work hard on something, then that means that you have a low IQ. In contrast, those who believe intelligence is malleable believe that failure is a signal to try something new. Furthermore, they have an opposite definition of effort in that they believe that effort turns into intelligence.

It also turns out that those with an entity model, feel smart when 1) they don’t make mistakes; 

2) they turn in their test papers first; and 3) they get work that seems easy. And if they don’t do well, they are anxious, show symptoms of depression, and think of themselves as dumb — despite the fact that they might have had confidence in their intelligence prior to doing poorly. Having an entity theory of intelligence can impact how you work in school, what classes you select, what major you select, and even what career you select. In other words, a simple meaning given to a concept can change everything about one’s life.

Research shows that you can reverse these effects when you simply educate people to develop an incremental theory of intelligence. So if you have an entity model of intelligence, research how you can grow your intelligence and how you can develop new skills and abilities. In fact, we show in our workshops that even genius can be learned and cultivated. Within the next 18 months, we plan to have a new workshop entirely focused on how you can develop trading genius.

What’s amazing about this research is that a psychologist has devoted her life work to show the impact of meanings and beliefs have on people. And the results are incredible.

Understanding Intelligence and IQ

Most people go through school thinking that they have some level of intelligence, they get a number score that measures their intelligence, and then that’s it. The number is fixed in stone for their life. I definitely heard this a lot while I was growing up. In my case, I was lucky because I definitely believed that I could make my high IQ score higher. I had a friend who had a higher IQ and I always felt my job was to do better than he did, no matter what. With effort, I started to do that so my experience overcame what others told me.

There seem to be deep misunderstandings about IQ. Alfred Binet developed the first IQ test in Paris so he could assess the current state of the schools in Paris and thus DO SOMETHING TO IMPROVE IT. He never developed the test around the idea that anyone’s IQ was fixed. One Nobel Laureate, after he won the prize, discovered his first IQ test score which was average at best. He commented that had he known his score, he might never have undertaken some of the complex work he did that led to his Nobel Prize.

As a youngster, Dr. Dweck was actually put in an advanced student’s class. In that class, the teacher was enamored with IQ believing it to be both important and fixed. She organized the seating in the classroom by IQ score and treated everyone according to what she believed their score to be. I would guess this experience stimulated Dr. Dweck to research this area.

Late in her book, Dr. Dweck also applies her research to personality traits. For example, if you think your personality or some aspect of it (such as likeability) is fixed, then you can become helpless when confronted with issues regarding it.

To me this says a lot about motivation problems, procrastination, and any number of other psychological problems. What happens to you when you encounter something difficult? What if you realized that you could change your reaction to difficulties just by changing how you define the word intelligence?

Intelligence Level and other Nominalizations

Intelligence and personality traits are both examples of what NLP calls a nominalization — where language turns a verb into a thing. IQ is a verb (a performance on an IQ test) that has been turned into a noun and then given a lot of meaning. The same goes with personality traits. Personality or even individual personality traits are actually ongoing processes.

When our language turns verbs or processes into nominalizations, all you have is an illusory concept that we have invented and to which we have given a lot of meaning. Richard Bandler used to say that if you couldn’t put it into a wheelbarrow (no matter how big), then it was a nominalization. Interesting words like truth, performance, feelings, map of the world, etc. are all nominalizations. They are not real nouns but just concepts we have invented.

Dr. Dweck’s book got me thinking that if a difficult challenge can trigger people into helplessness and even depression, then what happens when people have to go through real suffering as can be the case in doing self-work? Perhaps all nominalizations that we believe are fixed lead to some sort of helplessness behavior. There are huge implications to many fields in this idea.

If the meaning people give to intelligence is so important, then what about the meaning they give to words like suffering or level of consciousness? How would they deal with personal challenges such as identifying non-useful beliefs or feeling stuck feelings? If the meaning they give to a challenging task throws them into helplessness because they think IQ is fixed (and all the implications that go with that), then what if they think that their personal psychological issues are fixed? What additional meanings do they give to that? Wow. My guess is that it is a major part of what causes people to stop working on themselves.

One of my ongoing projects is to model success in the Super Trader program. That’s why we keep improving it. In that project, I constantly ask, “What’s different about those who excel in the program and those who encounter a roadblock and stop?” Some reasons I’ve heard from stuck Super Traders include:

  • It’s so painful to think about that.
  • I just keep procrastinating.
  • I’m just not motivated to tackle that.
  • I’m just so busy.
  • And the list goes on and on.

After reading Dr. Dweck’s research, however, I’m convinced the primary reason for being stuck is some sort of nominalization they believe is fixed such as “my psychological issues are fixed.” As a result, I’ve developed a number of new Tharp Think concepts that I think will help people do their self-work once they get these beliefs into their neurology.

In the book Trading Beyond the Matrix, I listed the fifty-five original Tharp Think Concepts. (If you haven’t read this book yet, remember we are giving it away for free until our supply runs out. See below) Our new Tharp Think list now includes 113 critical concepts for trading success.

Tharp Think now includes these new concepts:

  1. The material involved in working on yourself is about personal evolution. It is required course for all souls. Only the time you take to do it is optional (perhaps a million lifetimes of doing the same thing over and over again).
  2. The purpose of working on yourself is to clear all non-useful beliefs, frames, parts, and charges that lower my consciousness.
  3. Finding a new one of these is an adventure and a chance to increase my consciousness and advance my personal evolution.
  4. Doing this work regularly will make me more aware; happy for no reason; and infinitely wealthy.
  5. Resistance persists. It locks me in place in my level of consciousness. I will be aware of any resistance that surfaces and work on it through feeling release.
  6. I welcome negative feelings and am willing to feel them until they are gone. Doing so is just another experience.
  7. Each step I take along this journey gives me feedback. Blocks are just a new challenge and a sign of beliefs I need to get rid of and feelings I need to release.
  8. There is only feedback no failure. Resistance and suffering are a clear message telling me what I need to become aware of and clear.
  9. Secrets, things we are unwilling to share, are a sign of negative charge. If I am a secretive person, I will start looking for why things are secretive for me and look at it as an opportunity to become aware of my issues.
  10. I am a meaning maker. The meaning I give to life, to God, to myself, and to my experience is all important.
  11. I will become aware of my meanings and change them so they produce happiness, success, and freedom.
  12. I will measure my progress by the number of clearings (of non-useful beliefs, misapplied frames, and stuck feelings) that I go through.
  13. My performance, my consciousness, my happiness, my success and my awareness are under my control. They can be improved continually and it is my destiny to do so.
  14. Self-mastery makes trading mastery and wealth mastery easy.
  15. I must get these beliefs into my neurology through the mind-to-muscle pattern.

The highlighted concepts are probably critical to master in order to complete the Super Trader program as well as in order to do a lot of self-work on your own. We are going to include such mastery principles in future Peak 101 workshops (including the Peak 101 workshop this weekend).

Each Tharp Think principle could require a complete article to explain fully. I plan to create a series of videos on these Tharp Think principles and the others so that you can develop your own program of working on yourself. Remember our mission is transformation through a trading metaphor. Hopefully, we can change the consciousness of tens of thousands of you, one trader at a time.

Source: http://newsletter.vantharp.com/public/viewmessage/html/10920/lacd79w8h60eu083esqbb3iahtojp/0bd903eb0000000000000000000000114e1a

棕油价已触顶 种植股难大涨plan

财经 2017年03月29日

(吉隆坡29日讯)虽然市场相信棕油价今年將保持在每公吨2500至3000令吉的强稳水平,种植股的全年净利料上扬,但分析员认为种植股的股价已反映这些利好因素,上升空间料有限。

分析员指出,除非棕油领域出现新利好因素,要不然棕油价已触顶。

种植股指数今天下跌14.57点或0.18%,至8193.83点。40只种植股当中,上升股和下跌股各占14只和9只,其余17只无起落。而昨天公布不俗业绩的联合马六甲(UMCCA,2593,主板种植股)涨17仙或2.79%,至6.27令吉,挤入全场上升榜第6位;同时联合种植(UTDPLT,2089,主板种植股)也起50仙或1.79%,至28.50令吉,是第2大上升股。

Godrej国际董事多拉米斯里今天在中国北京举办的棕油峰会上表示,棕油价在4月至5月中,可能保持在每公吨3000令吉,到了6月至7月可能下滑至每公吨2500令吉。

与此同时,米斯里维持每公吨2500令吉的大马交易所棕油期货价格预测。

「大马的棕油產量预计在2017年下半年才会回升,全年產量预计是1950万公吨。至于印尼的全年產量预计是3350万至3400万公吨。」



棕油价料企稳2500

另一方面,肯纳格研究分析员相信,虽然原油价窄幅波动及美元兑令吉走强,限制了棕油价的下行空间,但基于油棕和大豆產量的前景强稳,棕油价的上行空间亦有限。

肯纳格研究將2017年的预估棕油价保持在每公吨2550令吉。而第2季的预估棕油价亦维持在每公吨2700至2900令吉。

同时,该分析员表示,从棕油库存的变化来看,棕油价企于合理水平。虽然棕油產量正在走高,但棕油价很大程度上取决于棕油出口的成长动力。

无论如何,他强调,除非种植领域出现新利好因素,否则棕油价可能已经触顶。潜在的利好因素包括厄尔尼诺气象(El-Nino)、有利的生物柴油政策调整,以及美国大豆的供应风险。

「原油价窄幅波动和美元兑令吉走强,將继续扶持棕油价。基于第1季的棕油价强稳和產量按年扬升,我们相信种植股的首季净利料按年走高,按季则持平。」分析员补充,种植股2017年的净利表现料好于2016年,但相信种植股的股价已经反映这些利好因素。因此,种植股的股价接下来料將窄幅波动。

此外,他重申,潜在利好因素让特定股项受惠,比如生物柴油政策將惠及PPB集团(PPB,4065,主板消费股),而中国需求反弹可让一些大型股获利,例如森那美(SIME,4197,主板贸服股)、IOI集团(IOICORP,1961,主板种植股)和吉隆甲洞(KLK,2445,主板种植股)。

肯纳格研究维持种植领域的「中和」评级,同时也没有调整大部份种植股的投资评级和目標价,只將FELDA环球投资(FGV,5222,主板种植股)的目標价从1.85令吉,上修至2.10令吉。

油价全年料徘徊50至60美元.合约复苏.油气业最糟已过

2017-03-30 09:41

(吉隆坡29日讯)布兰特原油价今年迄今平均每桶55美元,全年预计徘徊于50至60美元,尽管全球油气资本与营运开销仍趋选择性,国内合约受国油驱动已逐步复苏,肯纳格研究维持油气业“中和”评级,认为当前油价波动时刻提供油气股买卖契机。

维持“中和”评级

肯纳格相信全球油气业仍未全面晋入上升周期,主因是资本开销增长仍疲弱,但目前的油价波动为几只股项提供策略买卖契机。

“这是因目前油价维持平均每桶55美元,石油输出国组织成员与非成员若在下半年维持减产意愿,甚至可走高至每桶60美元。”

肯纳格说,当前油价波动为油气相关股提供策略买卖契机,主要是油价游走于平均55美元,下半年有望走高至60美元、心理水平50美元,而且估值已自2013年高峰跌逾60%。

国油今年资本开销按年增长17%至600亿令吉,并把原油价定在每桶45美元;首季国内有更多油气合约,不过未透露合约价值。

肯纳格从各管道查访,获悉查访竞标情况次数已增,隐隐间有“最糟已过”之势。

“盈利仍平平无奇,至少在上半年如此,预期紧随更多油气活动,盈利可按季改善。”

肯纳格说,沙肯石油(SKPETRO,5218,主板贸服组)获运输与装管工程,环境海事资源(ALAM,5115,主板贸服组)获海底探测、维护维修(IMR)服务合约。

料有更多油气合约

该行相信未来有更多维修、建筑与改装之合约推出,受惠者包括达洋企业(DAYANG,5141,主板贸服组)、必达能源(PENERGY,5133,主板贸服组)、巴拉卡(BARAKAH,7251,主板贸服组)。

油价过去数月走疲10%,主要是原油库存增长,美国的油井复开;从去年5月最低的316个,增长近100%至631个,同时美国原油生产也增至每日910万桶,写下去年2月以来新高,这促使油价攀升受抑。

该行预期成员国持续遵守减产,俄罗斯也会保持目前生产水平至6月,减产6月的方案是否延长,5月的石油输出国组织大会自有决定。该行维持今年布兰特原油每桶55美元。

肯纳格所研究油气股截至3月10日扬6.4%,超越马股的4.6%增长,纵使原油价自1月跌9.6%。

“油气业当时超越大市表现,或受一些投资者谷底垂钓一些股只催动,促使鹏达集团(PANTECH,5125,主板贸服组)飙20.2%、阿玛达(ARMADA,5210,主板贸服组)起18.2%、环境海事资源涨13.2%。



文章来源:星洲日报‧财经‧报道:张启华‧2017.03.30

威铖 下半年业绩看涨

168点看 2017年3月30日 
分析:JF APEX证券

目标价:2令吉最新进展

威铖(VS,6963,主板贸服股)截至1月31日次季,净利按年增长29.11%,达3550万6000令吉或每股净利3.02仙,并宣布派发每股1.2仙第二次中期单层股息。


同时,营业额按年上涨52.43%至7亿6384万令吉。

合计上半年净利却按年下跌21.29%,至6901万4000令吉或每股净利5.89仙;营业额攀升29.66%至14亿4386万令吉。

行家建议

威铖上半年核心净利低于预测,仅占我们全年预测的39%。

不过,我们预计下半年将取得亮眼的业绩,主要是受到国内产量和效率增加的推动。

至于中国市场,在生产线使用率提高之际,加上大量生产新产品给当地主要客户,集团预计将持续维持强稳业绩。

在调整集团在大马和中国营运的销量和赚幅,以及有效税率和少数股权后,我们把2017财年核心净利预测调低8%至1亿5000万令吉,2018财年预测调高1.7%至1亿9670万令吉。

我们维持“买进”评级,并把目标价格从1.68令吉,调高至2令吉。

Stronger quarters ahead for V.S. Industry

Wednesday, 29 March 2017 | MYT 2:45 PM

PETALING JAYA: V.S. Industry Bhd, which saw higher earnings for the second quarter amid stiff competition, expect stronger quarters ahead buoyed, among others, by original design manufacturer (ODM) brewer model production and seasonally stronger quarters for its US-based client Keurig Green Mountain Inc.

AmInvestment Bank Research on Wednesday said the other factor that would drive the company’s earnings would be the ramp-up in production of a floor-care product for “customer X”.

Since Feb’17, a second assembly line for the floor-care product had started running, while the third production line is expected to come on stream in May.

With spare capacity at customer X boxbuild factory, VSI has the capacity to take on further orders from its client, it noted.

For the second quarter ended Jan 31, 2017, the company raked in RM 35.5mil in net profit compared with RM27.5mil a year ago. For the six months, net profit contracted to RM69mil from RM87,7mil previously.

The research house was maintaining a buy call on the stock with a higher fair value (FV) of RM2 as it rolled forward its valuation to calender year 2018.

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/03/29/stronger-quarters-ahead/#ssGDzUh3c1jdg4qu.99

Potential SMEs to be identified for listing

Thursday, 30 March 2017

KUALA LUMPUR: SME Corp Malaysia is working together with Bursa Malaysia to identify potential Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) to be listed on the SME Market, which will be launched either in June or July this year.

SME Corp chief executive officer Datuk Hafsah Hashim (pic) said a few companies have been identified and are currently undergoing the evaluation process.

The proposed new SME Market hoped to facilitate greater access to capital market financing for the SMEs to support their developmental and lifecycle needs, she said.

“At the moment, we have identified our Four and Five Stars companies (under SME Competitiveness Rating for Enhancement concept). We are looking into the data base of close to 600 companies that have been identified as having potential to be on the new SME Market,” she said.

She told reporters this on the sidelines of the Monthly Assembly of the Ministry of International and Trade and Industry (MITI) and Agencies here.

The new SME Market is meant for investors or equity funders to look through this catalyst and find ways to facilitate these companies in terms of pumping in capital, she said.

“Once investors or equity funders take up the company, they will raise up the level of capitalisation before (the companies) are listed on the Ace Market,” she added.

Hafsah said SMEs’ accounts would be made public and their management practices would also be made known to potential investors, equity funders and venture capitalists.

Also present at the event were International Trade and Industry Minister Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed and Second Minister Datuk Seri Ong Ka Chuan.

On another development, Mustapa said it was important for the government to ensure that the SME sector was well prepared and able to sustain their operations in a challenging economic environment.

“The SME sector contribution to the gross domestic product (GDP) currently stands at 36.3%.

“What is more positive is that the growth rate in 2015 was 6.1% and this had exceeded the nation’s overall GDP growth which is 4.2%,” he said. — Bernama


Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/03/30/potential-smes-to-be-identified-for-listing/#01AbEHBTgm3T7x8j.99

Kenanga sees good Q1 for gaming sector

Thursday, 30 March 2017

“The earnings driver in 2017 for Genting Bhd will be the Genting Malaysia Bhd’s Genting Integrated Tourism Plan (GITP) expansion programme, stable crude palm oil (CPO) prices while Genting Singapore plc’s (GenS) outlook remains challenging,” Kenanga Research said.It added that the usual yearly 20-22 additional special draws will provide a boost to ticket sales for number forecast operators (NFO)

PETALING JAYA: Kenanga Research expects a better performance in the first quarter of the 2017 calendar year for the gaming sector due to seasonality factors.

“Going forward, we expect strong revenue in the upcoming first quarter results due to the seasonality effect of the Chinese New Year (CNY).

“The earnings driver in 2017 for Genting Bhd will be the Genting Malaysia Bhd’s Genting Integrated Tourism Plan (GITP) expansion programme, stable crude palm oil (CPO) prices while Genting Singapore plc’s (GenS) outlook remains challenging,” Kenanga Research said.It added that the usual yearly 20-22 additional special draws will provide a boost to ticket sales for number forecast operators (NFO).

It noted that the latest reported fourth quarter of the 2016 calendar year that was reported saw industry players reporting satisfactory results with the exception of Berjaya Sports Toto Bhd (BToto).

Kenanga noted that BToto’s results disappointed for the third consecutive quarter despite a CNY ticket sales quarter which was not strong enough to create recovery traction.

It said casino operators, especially Genting, ended 2016 with a good set of results.

“All casino operations reported improved earnings except the UK unit due to higher payroll.

“In fact, GenS earnings beat consensus, reporting its first recovery in VIP business volume in more than two years,” it said.

Kenanga noted that while it remains neutral on the overall gaming sector, the casino sub-sector will continue to be the focus in the near-term given the GITP expansion program at Genting Highlands coupled with the liberalisation of the gambling industry in Japan.

“All said, Genting will be the clear beneficiary should a meaningful recovery occur at GenS and further improvement is seen in GenM,” it said.

Kenanga said it was impressed with the GITP program following its on-site visit to Genting Highlands in January.

“With the new casino floors and additional capacity coming on stream, this is a major earnings kicker for GenM, thus indirectly benefiting Genting as well.

Visitor numbers should increase further when GenP’s Genting Highlands Premium Outlet opens in the third quarter,” it said.

“This would turn the hilltop resort into a world’s class holiday destination while the brand new 20th Century Fox World Theme Park will be ready by year-end.

“All these will escalate its non-gaming business to another new level, making GenM the key focus for gaming stocks in the next one to two years,” Kenanga added.

On the other hand, Kenanga said NFO operators are still experiencing declining ticket sales and they have hit new lows in recent times.

“Both NFO players - BToto and Magnum Bhd continued to register declining ticket sales in the fourth quarter of 2016, which resulted in declining sequential results.

“With the declining ticket sales coupled with vulnerable luck factor, the earnings outlook for these two operators are at stake,” it said.

“However, there could be some positives for NFO players as the Deputy Prime Minister had stated in the middle of February that the Common Gaming Houses Act 1953 will be amended to combat online gambling.

“As illegal operators have been taking market share away from the NFO players, any new act is welcomed to deter gamblers switching to the black market,” it added.


Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/03/30/kenanga-sees-good-q1-for-gaming-sector/#4C2dL70v4TslARjd.99

周顯﹕中國天然氣回落的原因

http://www.mpfinance.com/fin/columnist2.php?col=1463481127012&node=1490815651760&issue=20170330
文章日期:2017年3月30日

【明報專訊】有人問我,在我寫過眾多股票當中,最深刻印象的,究竟是哪一隻呢?我脫口而出:「梗係中國天然氣(0931)啦!」

記得在幾年前,我參加了一個由某份已結業的免費報的炒股比賽,就是憑着這隻股票,取得了冠軍,贏得了九十多萬元,這應該是史上炒股比賽中,贏得最高數字的紀錄了。後來小朋友梅偉琛也曾經贏得過差不多的數字,但是後話了。

中國天然氣在幾年前還是一隻不為人注意的股票,但因為我知道其大股東簡志堅非常有實力,因此對他投以信任的一票。

查實在這幾年間,這股票已經逐步變身,不停注入大型天然氣項目,也已經入了恒生增幅股指數、摩根史丹利MSCI指數、福布斯亞洲區中小型200強指數,以及滬港通和深港通等等。

樹大招風 惹「通緝犯」抽水

在去年,它的股價回落了不少,其中的一個原因,自然是大市的下跌,至於另一個原因則是……講出來很奇特,就是某一隻暴升暴跌的股票,居然放出謠言,說它是和中國天然氣同一系列,其實真正的原因,只不過是其中一名買中國天然氣贏了大錢的投資者,又把錢轉投在該隻暴升暴跌的股票之上,如此而已。

這當然是樹大招風,引人抽水,惹來的無妄之災,簡志堅把對方氣得牙癢癢的,不在話下。不過簡是基金的寵兒,鬼佬銀行家出身,專做大刁,對方是連證監也奈何不了的第一號通緝犯,一個瓷器,一個缸瓦,根本無法戰鬥。

為什麼我忽然提起中國天然氣這隻股票?皆因有一日,一位心水清的人對我說:「你一寫這股票,它就會升。」且看這預言究竟靈不靈驗了。

[周顯 投資二三事]

Wednesday, March 29, 2017

冷眼 - 游手好闲的爸爸

Mon, 23 Jul 2007

本文所述,是关於一位同学的爸爸的故事。

这个故事,宛如一颗芝蔴般大小的种子,这枚叫股票的种子在我心中发芽、生根、长大,使我跟股票,一辈子结了不解之缘。

话说 1960 年我高中毕业后,深感英文程度不够,难以觅职,就进入一间补习性质的学院去读
英文。

这间学院所收的,都是政府英文学校的初级文凭落第生。

跟我同座的同学,是一位十六岁的小伙子,功课差得很,只是敷衍着过日子。

他每天由司机载送上学,可见家境挺富裕的。

我是个超龄的穷学生,每天要替人补习两场来赚取学费,对这样的一位同学,一方面是羡慕,一方面也是好奇,就问他:“你爸爸是做什么职业的?”

他说:“他没有工作”。

我的好奇心更重了,问他:“没有工作,靠什么生活?”

他的回答更妙:“别人寄钱给他啰!”

我问:“谁寄钱给他?”。

他也说不清楚,总之,他知道有人定期把钱寄到他家里,他父亲只把支票放进银行,就用之不尽了。

我真的很想弄清楚,为什么人家会寄钱给他父亲呢?

我追问得多了,大概他也想知道是怎么一回事,就回去问他母亲,然后回来告诉我:是“股票”。

他说是他祖父买的“股票”。

这是我第一次听到“股票”。根本不知道是什么东西。

后来慢慢的听懂了。原来他的祖父是一名矿家,父亲自小娇生惯养,不事生产。

他的祖父怕他的父亲没钱受苦,就买了大批的锡矿股和树胶股,遗嘱写明白不准出售,只准收股息。

那时的锡矿和树胶股股息异常丰厚,周息率十多巴仙的比比皆是。他的父亲定期收到这些锡矿和树胶公司派发的股息,过着富裕的生活。

我的兴趣,一向是文学,小学时穷追武侠小说,初中时醉心新文学,高中时嗜古文如命。

喜欢文学的人,视财经书籍为畏途,我在新加坡的新闻工作者训练课程,也没财经新闻这一科,所以对财经一向是很陌生的。

直到我做记者的第二年,才下决心搞财经。

靠股息过活

实际上,我开始时研究的是经济,后来发现经济的范围太广,不易专精,乃决定研究一个课题“英国殖民地政府怎样控制殖民地的经济”。

在对这个课题进行研究后,发现除非我了解股票和股市,我是不可能澈底了解殖民地政府搜括殖民地财富的手段的。

就这样我转而研究股票。在研究过程中,我想起了那位同学的父亲的“财源”,这正符合了我
的梦想,就一头栽进去,从此就没有回过头。

只要投资观念正确长期累积好股,每一个人都有可能像“游手好闲的爸爸”那样,靠股息生活。

Maintain BUY: Relatively stable margins seen for Prolexus for remainder of FY17

Author: damiantreez | Publish date: Wed, 29 Mar 2017, 12:58 PM

Prolexus Bhd
(March 28, RM1.36)
Maintain buy with a lower fair value of RM1.61: While we believe Prolexus Bhd deserves to trade at a premium to its three-year average price-earnings ratio (PER) of 8.2 times, we lower the PER peg to reflect Prolexus’ moderated growth outlook.

Valuations are rolled over to financial year 2018 forecast (FY18F), from FY17F, as we lower our PER peg to 10 times from 12 times.

Prolexus reported a second quarter of FY17 (2QFY17) net profit of RM7.7 million (quarter-on-quarter: 18.8%; year-on-year [y-o-y]: 9%), bringing first half of FY17 (1HFY17) net profit to RM14.1 million (y-o-y: -4.5%). Earnings came in below our earnings estimate at 44%. No dividend was declared for the quarter as expected.

The earnings shortfall was due to softer-than-expected top-line growth as cumulative sales contracted 4% against the corresponding period. This stemmed from both its apparel and advertising divisions. Nike’s top-line weakness appeared to have trickled down, impacting Prolexus. Advertising revenue weighed further on the overall top line, contracting 14% in tandem with the broader advertising industry.

Positively, its gross margin held relatively steady at 19.2% (19.5% in 1HFY16). This was in spite of the full effect of higher minimum wage impact. We expect relatively stable margins for the remainder of FY17, given the cost-pass-through nature of Prolexus’ contracts.

Meanwhile, Prolexus’ exciting double plant expansion remains on track to be completed in FY18. We anticipate its new Vietnam plant to commence operations in 1QFY18. It will initially enlarge existing output by 30%, with the potential to double existing capacity. Meanwhile, its Kluang fabric mill is scheduled to begin operations in 2QFY18. The fabric mill will enhance margins with cheaper knitted fabric input produced in-house.

However, for the interim, we expect initial start-up costs and underutilisation of capacity to initially weigh on margins. We take this opportunity to trim our aggressive margin assumptions. Apart from that, we lower our revenue projection given the new development with Nike amid heightened competition from other brands such as Adidas and Under Armour.

Factoring in changes to our assumptions, we cut our FY17F, FY18F and FY19F earnings by 15%, 17% and 8% respectively. Key risks to our forecasts include: i) higher-than-expected start-up costs related to its Vietnamese and Kluang expansions; and ii) further slowdown in Nike sales. — AmInvestment Bank Research, March 28

Better earnings clarity for technology sector

Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Wed, 29 Mar 2017, 01:08 PM

By Kenanga Research / The Edge Financial Daily | March 29, 2017 : 10:43 AM MYT
This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on March 29, 2017.

Technology sector
Upgrade to overweight: We upgrade our sector call to “overweight” given the outweighing of outperform ratings in the total market capitalisation of our stock coverage universe alongside improving industry prospects.

Global semiconductor sales in January 2017 increased by 13.9%, marking the sixth consecutive year-on-year (y-o-y) growth which is the largest y-o-y growth since November 2010. With better numbers concluded in 2016, drastic revisions have been made to the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics’ 2017/2018 growth forecasts from 3.3%/2.3% to 6.5%/2.3%, with higher growth forecasts mainly on sensors and integrated circuits (ICs).

The smartphone segment which has been the key driver of the semiconductor industry over the past three years is expected to see better growth again in conjunction with the launching of flagship models by the world’s largest vendors this year. On top of that, the automotive semiconductor market is seeing higher growth from the increasing semiconductor content per vehicle for safety features and comfort systems.

We are more positive on the outsourced assembly and test players under our coverage given their improving earnings profile with meaningful exposure to the above-mentioned segments. Beyond industry growth, the earnings of Malaysian semiconductor export players will also be augmented by favourable currency translations.

We have imputed an average of RM4.40 per US dollar, a two-year forward ringgit/US dollar assumption for the technology companies under our coverage to be in line with our team of economists’ forecasts. With the industry seeing meaningful recovery, we are now assigning upcycle valuations to most of the semiconductor players under our coverage. Of all, our top picks are PIE Industrial Bhd (outperform; target price [TP]: RM2.87) and Notion VTec Bhd (outperform; TP: RM1.62). — Kenanga Research, March 28

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/better-earnings-clarity-technology-sector

HLIB Research retains Buy on DRB-Hicom with RM2 target price

Wednesday, 29 March 2017 | MYT 11:05 AM

Proton needs to find a strategic foreign technical partner to fulfil conditions set by the government for its approval of its RM1.5bn soft loan to Proton last year.

KUALA LUMPUR: Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) Research is maintaining its Buy rating on DRB-Hicom with a RM2 target price, which is an upside of 45% upside, based on 20% discount to sum-of-parts.

It said on Wednesday DRB-Hicom was trading at undemanding valuation at 0.42 times price-to-book (P/B), which is 26% lower than its 10-year historical average of 0.57 times.

“Overall, DRB-Hicom’s core profit after tax and minority interest (PATAMI) is expected to leapfrog to RM298mil in FY19 from a loss of RM324mil in FY17E,” it said.

HLIB Research said the positive outlook was based on (1) the potential entry of Proton’s foreign strategic partner (FSP); (2) steady earnings from the RM7.5bil AV8 contract; and (3) ongoing plans to dispose of non-core assets to relieve the balance sheet.

It also said (4), it was optimistic on the long term positive outlook of Pos Malaysia, following the launch of Malaysia Digital Free Trade Zone (DFTZ) due to its direct involvement in the e-fulfilment hub and potential synergies with its other business areas (last mile delivery, haulage, freight forwarding, etc.).

Meannwhile, HLIB retail research said DRB-Hicom’s share price is “bottoming up” to retest RM1.46-RM1.55 zones.

Despite recent selling pressures, DRB-Hicom has maintained a strong support above the 50-SMA near RM1.31 amid undemanding valuation and imminent Proton FSP announcement by June.

“On the back of bullish hourly chart and bottoming up daily indicators, share prices are likely to test immediate resistances at RM1.43 (daily upper Bollinger band) and year-to-date high at
RM1.46 soon.

“A decisive break above RM1.46 could potentially signal that the next leg up towards 52-week high at RM1.55. Key supports are RM1.34 and RM1.31. Cut loss at RM1.30,” it said.

To recap, it also pointed out that DRB-Hicom’s MD managing director Datuk Seri
Syed Faisal Albar had recently cleared the air following the South China Morning Post report that Geely Automobile Holdings (Geely) has pulled out its bid to acquire an equity stake in Proton.

The stock retraced from YTD high of RM1.46 (Feb 27, March 3 and 20) to a low of RM1.34 lately (March 27 and 28). Moreover, Geely’s decision to pull out for the bid also reduces the possibility of DRB-Hicom getting maximum value for its stake in Proton.

“Nevertheless, DRB-Hicom’s share prices rebounded four sen to end at RM1.38 yesterday following Syed Faisal’s statement that the detailed FSP’s evaluation (with three key criteria, namely strategic, operational and cultural fit) is still ongoing, given a new proven partner that can offer technology, capabilities and new markets, will push Proton as a brand to be reckoned with.

Syed Faisal also reaffirmed the group's statement last Friday that all bidders are still in the running to be selected as Proton's FSP after news reports stating that Proton was only left with only one bidder.

DRB-Hicom is expected to make the final decision by mid-2017. To recap, Proton needs to find a strategic foreign technical partner to fulfil conditions set by the government for its approval of its RM1.5bn soft loan to Proton last year.

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/03/29/hlib-research-retains-buy-on-drb-hicom-with-rm2-target-price/#3wGvaBPreHWAvpgd.99

湯文亮﹕從天梯事件看樓市

文章日期:2017年3月29日

【明報專訊】早幾日,我去某個商場,看到那條哈利波特式天梯覺得很危險,當時我很奇怪,政府點解可以批准那些橫跨樓層的天梯,如果發生意外,可能會令乘搭天梯的人直墮地下。

我同時想到,現時樓市好似乘搭天梯一樣,自動向上,只要能夠入市,不用努力都會賺到很多錢,同任何人講危險,都會被人話傻仔,正如現在我提醒大家小心樓市一樣,不但被人話傻仔,連我自己都覺得自己是傻仔,如果不是有朗豪坊事件,大家都不會認為乘搭天梯會有危險,更加沒有考慮到天梯會逆轉而行,現在有不少買樓的人心態同乘搭天梯一樣,絕對不會考慮到樓市會逆轉。

樓市如果逆轉,情况就好似天梯一樣,一定會有很多人遭到重大損失,隨時連命都沒有,所以,在現階段,我情願被人話傻仔,都只會叫上車的人小心,而不是話不上車的人小心樓價繼續上升。朗豪坊天梯事件,天梯是在毫無預警之下突然逆轉,就算有人受傷,都只能說是意外;但如果樓市逆轉就不能夠說是意外,因為大家早已知道的負面因素暫時將陸續出現,例如利息、供應等正在開始增加,內地亦已經關注市民在香港買樓情况,現在上車是否明智,大家應該要認真思考。

非毫無預警逆轉 現時上車未必明智

如果有迫切性而又能力可以負擔的話,現在買樓亦未嘗不可,就算能力不及,如果有迫切性亦可以用博一博的心態買樓,但現在買樓的人,很多都是很年輕,絕對沒有迫切性,樓價首期由父母支付,而父母的首期可能是從加按他們的物業所得,倘若樓市繼續上升,一家人當然開心,但樓市升勢逆轉,他們就會承受雙重損失。所以,現在入市,除能力可以負擔之外,亦要考慮其迫切性,否則,就好似矮仔上樓梯,一步一步行就比較好一點。

紀惠集團行政總裁

[湯文亮 敢說亮話]

Tuesday, March 28, 2017

MAHB, DRB-Hicom, LBS Bina, Genting Plantations seen gaining from DFTZ — CIMB Research

By Sulhi Azman / theedgemarkets.com | March 28, 2017 : 11:36 AM MYT

KUALA LUMPUR (March 28): Malaysia Airports Holdings Bhd (MAHB) and DRB-Hicom Bhd are expected to be the key beneficiaries from the government's recently launched Digital Free Trade Zone (DFTZ), said CIMB Research.

"We see potential beneficiaries of DFTZ to include the logistic and e-commerce industry in Malaysia," CIMB Research analysts Ivy Ng Lee Fang and Michelle Chia said in a note to their clients today, adding that MAHB is seen as the key direct beneficiary.

"MAHB is a key beneficiary as it could earn additional income from the tenancy of the low-cost carrier terminal (LCCT) and the establishment of a regional e-commerce and logistics hub in KLIA Aeropolis," the analysts said.

"We see DRB-Hicom as an indirect beneficiary, via 53.5%-owned Pos Malaysia Bhd. According to the official announcement, Alibaba, Cainiao, Lazada and Pos Malaysia will roll out the initial phase of the e-fulfilment hub before end-2017," the research firm said. "We expect Pos Malaysia to play a key role as an e-fulfilment service provider through its logistics arm Pos Aviation Sdn Bhd."

CIMB Research added that the experience in much more mature markets suggests that the room to grow the electronic commerce share of the retail pie is substantial.

"According to McKinsey, China is home to the largest e-commerce market in the world, estimated at over US$630 billion (about RM2.8 trillion) annually in 2015 and accounting for 13.5% of all retail spending in the country. In addition, 'e-tailing' in China is replacing more traditional forms of consumer spending," the research analysts said.

Meanwhile, CIMB Research said two outfits — property developer LBS Bina Group Bhd and commodities firm Genting Plantations Bhd — are the other potential beneficiaries of the DFTZ.

According to the research firm, Genting Plantations owns some 1,100 acres of land in Sepang, which is within 30 minutes from KLIA Aeropolis.

The land, said CIMB Research, is valued at only RM21 million, equivalent to 44 sen per sq ft (psf).

"The development of DFTZ could boost the value of land surrounding KLIA Aeropolis. As such, Genting Plantations is a potential indirect beneficiary. We estimate that every RM5 psf rise in value of Genting Plantation's land in Sepang will boost the group's valuation by RM240 million or 30 sen per share," the analysts added,

As for LBS Bina, it owns some 633 acres of land in Dengkil, which is less than 20km from KLIA.

"LBS Bina plans to undertake the maiden launch on the Dengkil land in the second half of this year, and the newsflow about KL Aeropolis could enhance the take-up rate of the development," the firm added.

CIMB Research has an add call, equivalent to buy, on all four counters — MAHB, DRB-Hicom, Genting Plantations and LBS Bina — with a target price of RM8.30, RM1.69, RM12.30 and RM1.95 respectively.

前景可期.财务透明.怡保种植估值诱人

Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Tue, 28 Mar 2017, 05:47 PM 2017-03-28 17:14

鲜果串产量增加、高榨取率及原棕油价格走高下,达证券认为怡保种植基本因素稳健,长期前景可期,管理层的透明财务报告也获赞赏。

(吉隆坡28日讯)鲜果串产量增加、高榨取率及原棕油价格走高下,达证券认为怡保种植(IJMPLNT,2216,主板种植组)基本因素稳健,长期前景可期,管理层的透明财务报告也获赞赏。

该公司今年股价下跌7%,达证券认为已经下跌至吸引人水平,估值诱人,提供趁低吸纳机会。

鲜果串产量大增

根据怡保种植管理层说,2017财政年首11个月鲜果串产量虽微挫0.7%,至79万2700吨,不过从去年10月至今年2月,鲜果串产量成长率却从0.4%,走高至42.3%,全年产量可持平。

连同3月计算在内,达证券预期,该公司2017财政年的鲜果串产量成长介于1.5至2%,受棕油价走高带动,预测2017财年盈利可达到1亿2050万令吉。

管理层表示,2018财政年,印尼种植地库在更高的成熟度(约2000公顷)下,预期鲜果串产量可达92万至95万吨,成长率介于8至12%。达证券预期2018财政年时,来自印尼的公司贡献将从38%走高至41%。

榨油率方面,管理层预期,2018财政年,大马与印尼的种植地库每公顷的榨油率为22吨及17吨,而2017财政年则为22吨及17吨。

达证券表示,怡保种植在印尼共有50443公顷种植地库,其中68%已种植,预期2017及2018财政年,该公司的资本开销为1亿5000万至1亿6000万令吉。

“怡保种植目前自由现金流虽然处于负面,但预期2019财政年可转向正面至4900万令吉,届时可能会派发更高的股息。”

达证券认为,该公司资产依旧保持健康,且净负债率处于0.3倍舒适的阶段。
风险方向,怡保种植面对原棕油货价格下滑、美元走弱、全球经济放缓、鲜果串产量低及大豆油的竞争。

达证券综合所有看法后并认为该公司目前估值相当诱人,目前适宜进场,并维持“买进”评级及3令吉88仙的目标价不变。

文章来源:
星洲日报‧财经‧报道:谢汪潮‧2017.03.28
http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1628181/%E5%89%8D%E6%99%AF%E5%8F%AF%E6%9C%9F%EF%BC%8E%E8%B4%A2%E5%8A%A1%E9%80%8F%E6%98%8E%EF%BC%8E%E6%80%A1%E4%BF%9D%E7%A7%8D%E6%A4%8D%E4%BC%B0%E5%80%BC%E8%AF%B1%E4%BA%BA