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Sunday, December 31, 2017

[转贴] 湯姆・克魯斯的電影票房 揭穿長尾理論的真相

Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Sat, 30 Dec 2017, 10:59 PM
作者:K@W | 2017 / 12 / 30

文章來源:K@W | 圖片來源:Jayroz

湯姆·克魯斯是否仍然賣座?揭穿“長尾理論”真相

“長尾理論”由雜誌主編克里斯·安德森於 2004 年首次提出。這一概念認為:隨著零售商通過互聯網以更少成本提供更多產品,他們不再需要搶佔龍頭來促進銷售。換句話說,需求曲線從頂點回落,趨近尾部。

然而,華頓商學院營運、資訊與決策教授謝爾蓋·奈提辛 (Serguei Netessine) 參與撰寫的一篇研究論文卻發現事實與此截然相反:由於消費者被大量選擇搞得頭暈目眩,他們更願意忠實於自己所熟知的品牌。這也是為何網上賣家必須要針對顧客優化自己的搜尋機制。

這篇報告名為“湯姆•克魯斯是否仍然賣座?關於產品種類如何影響需求集中的實證研究”(Is Tom Cruise Threatened? An Empirical Study of the Impact of Product Variety on Demand Concentration)。作者還包括南衛理公會大學的 Tom Tan、華頓商學院的黑特(Lorin Hitt)。這篇論文早前發表在《資訊系統研究(Information Systems Research)》雜誌上。奈提辛日前接受了華頓知識線上的專訪,討論報告主要發現。

以下是訪談內容編輯版本。

華頓知識線上:您即將介紹的這篇報告有個十分吸引人的標題:“湯姆·克魯斯是否仍然賣座?”這是關於長尾理論的報告對吧!

謝爾蓋•奈提辛:是的。這是一個廣受認可的著名理論,由克里斯·安德森提出。他當時是《連線》雜誌的主編。他說,隨著互聯網以及各種數位技術的湧現,人們將越來越多地轉向符合自己獨特需求的“利基”產品。相比於常規熱賣品,比如湯姆·克魯斯主演的大片,那類產品才更符合個人需求。

“長尾理論”適用於多種情境。比如人們流覽網頁的習慣。你絕大多數時間是會訪問比較大的幾個網站還是那些小的利基網站?還有你經常播放的音樂。我們選擇從電影切入,部分原因是電影、Netflix 還有 DVD 都曾是克里斯·安德森在研究“長尾效應”影響時引用過的重要實例。

華頓知識線上:這項研究翻閱了 2001 年到 2005 的電影票零售數據。將熱門影片和利基電影放到一起比對時你們有什麼發現?

奈提辛:最主要的發現是:我們並沒有發現什麼有力的證據證明“長尾效應”的存在,反而與這個理論背道而馳,也與先於我們的一些研究結果背道而馳。我們發現,需求越來越向頂端集中。當人們選擇影片的餘地越來越大時,他們更傾向於選擇最熟悉的,比如湯姆·克魯斯參演的電影。

華頓知識線上:有一種猜測認為,人們偏向選擇熱門電影的原因之一可能是劣質的利基電影太多了。但你們卻發現其實並不是這樣。

奈提辛:沒錯。有人可能會說,有了互聯網、移動終端、DVD 等等選擇,電影的傳播會更加容易。因此,電影市場上充斥著各種無名小輩粗製濫造的影片。那些影片多得數不過來,卻根本沒人願意看。於是,大家有點像是被熱門影片吸引走了那樣。我們的發現才不是這樣的。

我們發現,當新片上映時,其中一些會成為熱門片,其中一些會變成利基片,而產品的多樣性卻不斷增加。你可以看看 Netflix 上究竟有多少電影。這個數量一直在不斷增加。現在,我們不再是從 2 萬張 DVD 中選擇想看的,而是從 5 萬張、10 萬張甚至 100 萬張之中做出選擇。最後的結果就是對各種影片的需求全部下降……況且,我們看電影的時間有限。

實話實說吧,我們現在看電影很可能不像以前那麼頻繁了。但也許還是會多一點的,因為現在移動設備上也能看電影,但絕不會有從前的 5 倍、10 倍、100 倍那麼多。然而影片的數量卻是爆炸性成長的。

所以對影片整體的需求量是下降的。當人們試圖在越來越多的影片中搜尋該看點什麼的時候,往往更傾向於選擇熱門影片。我們認為實際上人們會這樣做的原因包括,首先,很難在各種各樣的影片中進行搜尋;第二,即便依賴某種推薦機制,每家公司現在都這麼做了,推薦機制仍然很基礎,僅能推薦其他人已經看過的電影,無法從海量的利基電影裡推薦。

華頓知識線上:讀了你們的研究,我應該不會為湯姆·克魯斯感到擔心了。但我還是有疑問的,Netflix是否應該擔心?因為他們的商業模式越來越偏重利基市場,而且越來越多做內容的公司都在朝這個方向努力。Netflix 目前十分倚重自製劇,也十分關注利基市場。

奈提辛:這個問題很好。他們有一些自製劇極為受歡迎,比如大家一下子就會想到《紙牌屋》。目前我們沒有最新資料,所以不清楚 Netflix 的熱門劇和利基劇收益占比。以前是一半一半。但我認為你的想法是對的,目前他們越來越偏重利基市場。

華頓知識線上:亞馬遜一直以提供包羅萬象的產品為目標。他們什麼都賣。這篇報告對他們公司有什麼警示嗎?

奈提辛:當然,絕對有。我認為,如果想要把勝算壓在提供海量產品這種策略上,就必須要在系統推薦演算法上花雙倍功夫,確保別人能找到想要的東西。目前的系統推薦演算法極為簡單:比如看看你以前都買過什麼。這自然導致大量利基產品根本不可能被搜到。你必須要在設計演算法時極為謹慎,確保無論添加何種利基產品都能為其妥善分類,並能真正出現在搜尋結果中,不會因為人們極少購買而完全被忽視。

華頓知識線上:你提到了推薦機制,以及根據利基產品的屬性分類。對於一部電影來說,最重要的屬性肯定是明星號召力了。公司如何解決這個問題?

奈提辛:我認為亞馬遜在這方面做得尤為出色。如果你看一下他們提供利基產品的策略,就會發現其實最初提供產品的並不是他們。他們允許協力廠商賣家在平臺上銷售利基產品。時間一久,亞馬遜可能就能監測到那些銷售情況,並說:“嘿,這個產品以前咱們不知道,似乎銷量很不錯。現在可以考慮是否跟進,自己銷售了。”

從協力廠商賣家那兒可以瞭解很多資訊,允許他們進駐平臺相對來說沒有風險。如果大眾不需要那些產品,賣家就會自生自滅。但如果出現需求,亞馬遜仍然可以掌控交易情況。這是出售利基產品的安全方式,不會有太大負擔。

華頓知識線上:零售商如果採取全管道策略,可以在門店出售熱賣品,而在網上出售利基產品。這些產品也可以送貨到門店,對吧?

奈提辛:沒錯。如果你走進任何一家 Barnes & Noble 書店,那裡可能有 10 萬本書。但亞馬遜卻有 400 到 500 萬本書在賣。Barnes & Noble 網上店鋪有大量書籍出售,比實體書店出售的種類多得多。基本上,他們是用數位管道作為實體店管道的補充。

華頓知識線上:即便是亞馬遜似乎也想這樣做。我的理解是,他們的實體店主要以熱賣品為主。

奈提辛:這也是一種辦法。Redbox 就是一個很好的例子。他們的自動販賣機上有 400 張 DVD,就這麼多。你該怎麼辦?你當然只能關注熱門影片。但是,作為一家公司他們在 DVD 的零售市場中佔據了相當一部分市場份額,而這些市場份額僅僅動用了 300 到 400 部影片。

華頓知識線上:很多人認為 DVD 零售這種業務行將就木。但你會發現,Redbox 幾乎進入了每一家超市。我女兒就是最典型的消費者:她總是會在那兒駐足,因為她知道自己熟悉的所有熱門影片都在裡面。

奈提辛:是這樣的。我覺得就像實體零售店鋪短時間內不會消失一樣,DVD 也不會徹底退出市場。觀影行為越來越向線上串流媒體轉移,但並不是所有人都喜歡它。並不是每個人都有足夠的寬頻流量。況且有時候你確實會在超市衝動購物。

華頓知識線上:熱門影片的空間依然足夠大。

奈提辛:有足夠的空間留給熱門影片,也有足夠的空間留給湯姆·克魯斯。

華頓知識線上:你們的研究將如何繼續?

奈提辛:方向很多。我認為克里斯·安德森在寫書的時候,是在思考資訊技術如何改變我們的購物方式,主要是將互聯網和實體店鋪進行比較。如今我們的技術又有所發展,出現了行動技術。

比如,這篇報告的作者之一 Tom Tan 一直在研究從網路管道轉向行動端管道後產品種類都發生了怎樣的變化。在行動設備上進行搜尋甚至還要更難,搜索結果顯示起來更費力。他們的發現再一次與“長尾效應”背道而馳。人們更關注熱門產品了。或許這是因為人們實在不願意在那麼小的螢幕上費力地滑動手指。

想要在行動端做出理想的搜尋介面是一個很大很大的挑戰。當然,人們在手機上的搜尋內容也不一樣。但至少目前就我所見到的情況而言,我認為今後將是熱門產品的天下。從我們這次的研究和我自己的判斷來看,人們對資訊技術越來越滿足,只關心自己熟知或者身邊人喜歡的少數產品。

https://www.stockfeel.com.tw/%e6%b9%af%e5%a7%86%e3%83%bb%e5%85%8b%e9%ad%af%e6%96%af%e7%9a%84%e9%9b%bb%e5%bd%b1%e7%a5%a8%e6%88%bf-%e6%8f%ad%e7%a9%bf%e9%95%b7%e5%b0%be%e7%90%86%e8%ab%96%e7%9a%84%e7%9c%9f%e7%9b%b8/

Saturday, December 30, 2017

金轮企业 将继续买柔佛地

130点看 2017年12月30日
分析:肯纳格投行

目标价:2.27令吉最新进展

金轮企业(KIMLUN,5171,主板建筑股)以总值3607万5168令吉,从马星集团(MAHSING,8583,主板产业股)手中收购两块柔佛土地,计划兴建商业产业。


这两块土地面积,分别为约2亿836.30平方米的商业永久土地,及17.90英亩的农业永久土地。

行家建议

鉴于收购时间漫长,我们中和看待这项最新收购,因为我们预计该公司会在2020财年才开始发展,届时开始贡献。

除非金轮企业决定早日结束,否则我们预计这项交易会在2020年末季才会完成。

土地评估对发展总值比例为10-15%,我们预计这两块土地的潜在发展总值,介于2亿4000万至3亿6000万令吉的范围。

而该公司的净负债水平,将从截至第三季的0.06倍,增至0.12倍,仍处于可管理水平。

因此,我们认为,该公司未来会继续在柔佛增加地库,目前,该公司未完成建筑订单企于约21亿令吉,未完成制造订单为3.5亿令吉,同样足够忙碌2年。

年初迄今,金轮企业共赢得9亿4000万令吉建筑合约,占我们2017财年新增订单的94%,而我们预计,受到主要项目如泛婆罗洲工程,未来建筑营业额将重拾增长步伐。



亿维雅 两年财测下调

412点看 2017年12月30日
分析:丰隆投行研究

目标价:1.42令吉最新进展

我们与亿维雅(HEVEA,5095 ,主板工业产品股)高层会面,认为该公司最糟的时期已过去。

亿维雅成功在今年9月起,通过聘请合约与本地员工,解决员工短缺。目前员工数量已增至1900名,高于第三季的1500名。

另一方面,该公司透露,除了E2板外,大部分产品没有陷入价格削价战漩涡中。不过高层也谨慎认为,如果削价战延续,不排除会蔓延至高级别刨花板。

行家建议

我们降低本财年净利预测6.7%至6620万令吉,因为胶水成本走高。我们也分别下砍未来两年净利18.5%和18.1%,反映出令吉在同期料走强至4.10,相比早期我们提出的4.3预测。

不过,我们欣赏该公司稳健的资产负债表现,如拥有每股35.8仙的现金;派息率至少30%,同时也正在研发高赚幅产品。

此外,旗下的Heveagro预计在明年3月起贡献盈利。通过每天产量约达3吨,该公司高层预计可带来超过30%的赚幅收益。我们还未将这因素纳入财测内。

我们维持“买入”评级,但按照2018年本益比预测10倍以及每股净利预测14.1仙,将目标价从早前的1.91令吉,下调至1.42令吉。

另外,由于市场充斥着不可控的宏观因素,我们下调相关领域整体本益比至10倍(早前为11倍)。

Friday, December 29, 2017

曾淵滄:歷史走勢不能簡單照搬

文章日期:2017年12月29日

【明報專訊】今天是2017年股市最後一個交易日,看來2017年香港股市是豐收的一年,去年12月,媒體出現了大量有關2017年是股災年的報道與預測,當時我努力地告訴大家不要相信這種10年1次的周期預測,我還說2017年會是「升到你不信」的一年。

所謂10年1次的大股災,是因為1987年、1997年、2007年皆出現大股災而引發的聯想,認為2017年也該有大股災,從統計學的科學角度來看,這只不過是巧合,因為從股市的基本因素來看,根本就不存固定周期的股災,初學投資的人都很經常的喜歡問一個問題:「股市一個周期有多長?」很有趣的是,也有不少專家發明、研究出股市周期的年數,有說4年一個周期,有說5年一個周期,當然,說10年一個周期的人最多,這一類的研究只是拿過去曾經出現的幾個周期數據就下結論,這等同到賭場賭錢時,連開3次「大」,就認為第4次一定是「大」同一個道理。

今年大豐收 打破十年一股災預測

股市的周期的確有長有短,絕對沒有固定年期,現在2017年沒有股災,更是豐收年,去年12月,恒指顯著下跌,是不是有人因為擔心2017年是股災年而提前賣掉股票?

今日,許多人說美股牛市的確太長了,因此,每一年年底,都有人預測美股會在下一年爆煲,結果,一年一年過去,預測美股爆煲的專家只好找些理由來自我解釋為什麼預測不準,另一個更難置信的股市是日本,日經指數於1989年12月29日是38,957點,今日也是12月29日正好滿28周年,仍然遠遠無力重返當年的高位,問題在哪裏?港股也不見得好,2007年的歷史高位至今也過了10年,仍然無法破,前陣子當恒指上破30,000點時,市場已經認為是超買,目前的恒指是超越了2015年「大時代」的高位。不過,恒指能破高位,只是依賴少數恒指權重股在支撐;因此,今年在股市賺到錢的人不多,這也是多年來少見的現象。

幾隻權重股支撐大市 多年罕見

歷史會重演,但是不會一模一樣的重演,每一年的股市,都是一個新的局面、新的因素、新的變化及走勢,我們要汲取歷史的教訓,但是卻不是簡單的把過去的歷史走勢照搬到今日。實際上,我們的確沒有必要去預測什麼時候會出現大股災,說10年1次大股災,是不是說過去10年中,9年沒有股災?股市沒有低潮,一路向上升?當然不是,2009年金融海嘯結束,股市見底;但是,很快地2010年又發生了歐債危機,2013年出現美國聯儲局加息與退出QE的恐慌,2015年「大時代」爆煲,股市裏的黑天鵝多得很。

大學教授

[曾淵滄 滄海明珠]

https://www.mpfinance.com/fin/columnist2.php?col=1463481132566&node=1514484466592&issue=20171229

Thursday, December 28, 2017

Holotropic Breathing Technique Used In Holotropic Breathwork Workshops

Holotropic Breathing Technique Used In Holotropic Breathwork Workshops -
There is not a “proper” way to do holotropic breathing other than the instruction to “breathe deeper and faster than normal”.  After 15 or 20 minutes, your body will normally find its own rhythm and you will generally no longer have to think about it. However, for people who want additional guidance, prior participants have found the following suggestions helpful when they start the holotropic breathing session.
1)     Full deep breaths – make each breath full and deep, breathing into the “bottom” of your lungs so that when you breathe in, your belly should move out a bit.
 2)     Continuous, “circular” breathing – the breathing should be done in such a way where there is no gaps in the breath..i.e. you should not be holding your breath at any point.  When your lungs are almost full, you want to turn the breath around and start exhaling.  When your lungs are empty, you want to immediately turn the breath around and start inhaling.  This creates a breath pattern whereby you are always breathing in or breathing out, creating a circle of breath.
 3)     Faster than normal – You also want to breathe a bit faster than you normally would.  However, you do not want to breathe so fast that you create tension in your body…your body, and especially your lungs, should be relaxed, without straining, so that the breath can be maintained for a long period of time without tiring yourself out.
 4)     Mouth vs Nose Breathing – It is easier to move air quickly through the mouth and mouth breathing tends to be more supportive of emotional release so most people find that breathing in and out through the mouth supports their process better than nose breathing.  However, some people find that mouth breathing is uncomfortable for them in which case nose breathing is fine also.

How To Do Holotropic Breathwork




Michael Stone, Los Angeles Holotropic Breathwork Workshop Facilitator

This page addresses how Holotropic Breathwork works, how it was developed and how to do Holotropic Breathing. For a schedule of upcoming Holotropic Breathwork Workshops in Los Angeles, Click Here.

If you are from out of town and wish to attend an amazing Holotropic Breathwork weekend retreat in the beautiful Southern California desert at Joshua Tree, Click Here

If you would like to be notified of future Holotropic Breathwork related events in Southern California, Please Click Here

How Was Holotropic Breathwork Developed and How Does It Work ?



Dr. Stan Grof, Creator of Holotropic Breathwork

Dr. Stanislav (Stan) Grof worked with LSD for many years as a therapeutic tool back in the 1960s and found that the “non-ordinary states of consciousness” that his patients were able to access during these experiences had a tremendous healing power. When LSD was banned, he believed that since these healing states could be accessed with a substance, that the receptors for that type of experience existed in our brains so there should be a way to access the same states without the LSD. He then spent the next period of time researching both how traditional societies had accessed these states and he also studied modern consciousness theory. From his research and then by working with groups of volunteers at Esalen over a period of several months, he developed a one day workshop modality that allowed participants to access these incredibly healing non-ordinary states through the use of breath and music. He called this modality “Holotropic Breatwork” (the word “Holotropic” is from the Greek ὅλος holos “whole” and τρέπειν trepein “to turn or direct towards a thing”; meaning “moving toward wholeness”) . So, It is a logical hypothesis that Holotropic Breathwork works in a way that is very similar to how scientists currently, based on recent cutting edge research, think that using substances such as LSD and psilocybin work, i.e. by slowing our “default mode network” down:

It has been recently discovered that when someone takes a psychedelic, there is a decrease in blood flow and electrical activity in the brain’s “default mode network”, a group of brain structures found in the frontal and pre-frontal cortex. The default mode network is primarily responsible for our ego or sense of self; it “lights up” when we daydream or self-reflect.


Matthew Johnson, Principal Investigator, Johns Hopkins University

When we “trip”, our default mode network slows down. With the ego out of commission, the boundaries between self and world, subject and object dissolve. These processes may be related to something called the “primary mystical experience,” a phenomena highly correlated with therapeutic outcomes. As Matthew Johnson, a principal investigator in Johns Hopkins’s psilocybin studies, explains, these experiences include a “transcendence of time and space,” a sense of unity and sacredness and a deeply felt positive mood. Robin Carhart-Harris, a neuroscientist with Imperial College London, notes that the default mode network is responsible for a lot of our rigid, habitual thinking and obsessions. These [non-ordinary state of consciousness] experiences can help relax the part of the brain that leads us to obsess, which makes us calmer. And they can help “loosen if not break” the entrenched physical circuits responsible for addictive behavior.

Holotropic Breathing Technique Used In Holotropic Breathwork Workshops –

There is not a “proper” way to do holotropic breathing other than the instruction to “breathe deeper and faster than normal” so this is not a “guided” breathwork experience except in a very general sense. The important thing is to move more air through your system than you normally do. After 15 or 20 minutes, your body will normally find its own rhythm and you will generally no longer have to think about it. However, for people who want additional guidance, prior participants have found the following suggestions helpful when they start the holotropic breathing session.

1) Full deep breaths – make each breath full and deep, breathing into the “bottom” of your lungs so that when you breathe in, your belly should move out a bit (i.e. “diaphragm breathing”).

2) Continuous, “circular” breathing – the breathing in such a way where there is no gaps in the breath..i.e. not holding your breath at any point. When your lungs are almost full, you turn the breath around and start exhaling. When your lungs are empty, you immediately turn the breath around and start inhaling. This creates a breath pattern whereby you are always breathing in or breathing out, creating a circle of breath.

3) Faster than normal – You also want to breathe a bit faster than you normally would. However, you do not want to breathe so fast that you create tension in your body…your body, and especially your lungs, should be relaxed, without straining, so that the breath can be maintained for a long period of time without tiring yourself out.

4) Mouth vs Nose Breathing – It is easier to move air quickly through the mouth and mouth breathing tends to be more supportive of emotional release so most people find that breathing in and out through the mouth supports their process better than nose breathing. However, some people find that mouth breathing is uncomfortable for them in which case nose breathing is fine also.

But, again, after 15 or 20 minutes, everyone’s body will generally find their own rhythm and way of breathing. There are as many breathing styles as there are breathers.

http://holotropicbreathworkla.com/how-to-do-holotropic-breathwork

What Is Holotropic Breathwork and How Is It Used?

Usage
Research
Safety
How to
Takeaway

Overview

Holotropic breathwork is a therapeutic breathing practice that is intended to help with emotional healing and personal growth. It’s said to produce an altered state of consciousness. The process involves breathing at a fast rate for minutes to hours. This changes the balance between carbon dioxide and oxygen in the body. You are guided through the exercise by someone who is trained in this emotional release modality.

Music is an essential part of the technique and is incorporated into the session. After a session, you’ll be asked to creatively express your experience, usually by drawing a mandala. You’ll also be encouraged to discuss your experience. Your reflection will not be interpreted. Instead, you may be asked to elaborate upon certain aspects.

The goal of this technique is to help you make improvements to your psychological and spiritual development. Holotropic breathing may also bring about physical benefits. The entire process is meant to activate your natural capacity for healing.

USAGE
Why is it used?

Holotropic breathing is said to facilitate mental, spiritual, and physical healing benefits. It’s thought to have the potential to bring about improved self-awareness and a more positive outlook on life. You can use it to support your development in a variety of ways.

It’s thought that the practice allows you to move beyond your body and ego to get in touch with your true self and spirit. It allows you to better connect with others and the natural world. Holotropic breathing may be used to treat a wide range of conditions, including:
depression
stress
addiction
post-traumatic stress disorder
migraine headaches
chronic pain
avoidance behaviors
asthma
premenstrual tension

Some people have used the technique to get rid of negative thoughts, including the fear of death. They’ve also used it to help manage trauma. The practice helps some people to find new purpose and direction in their lives.

RESEARCH
What does the research say?

A 1996 study combined the holotropic breathing technique with psychotherapy over six months. People who participated in the breathwork and therapy significantly reduced death anxiety and increased self-esteem compared to those who only had therapy.

A report from 2013 documented the results of 11,000 people over 12 years who participated in holotropic breathwork sessions. The results suggest that it can be used to treat a wide range of psychological and existential life issues. Many people reported significant benefits related to emotional catharsis and internal spiritual exploration. No adverse reactions were reported. This makes it a low-risk therapy.

A 2015 study found that holotropic breathing can bring about higher levels of self-awareness. It may help to positively make changes in temperament and development of character. People who were more experienced with the technique reported less tendency to be needy, domineering, and hostile.

SAFETY
Is it safe?

Holotropic breathwork has the potential to bring about intense feelings. Because of the strong physical and emotional releases that may arise, it’s not recommended for some people. Talk to your doctor before practicing this type of breathing if you have, or have a history of:
cardiovascular disease
angina
heart attack
high blood pressure
glaucoma
retinal detachment
osteoporosis
recent injury or surgery
any condition for which you take regular medications
history of panic attacks, psychosis, or disturbances
severe mental illness
seizure disorders
family history of aneurisms

Holotropic breathwork is also not recommended for pregnant women or breastfeeding women

Holotropic breathwork may bring about intense emotions and painful memories that could worsen symptoms. Because of this, some professionals recommend that it be used in conjunction with ongoing therapy. This gives you the chance to work through and overcome any issues that arise. Most people practice the technique without any adverse side effects.

HOW TO
How do you do holotropic breathing?

It’s recommended that you do holotropic breathing under the guidance of a trained facilitator. The experience has the potential to be intense and emotional. The facilitators are there to assist you with anything that should arise. Sometimes holotropic breathwork is offered under the supervision of licensed medical professionals. You can also use holotropic breathing as part of a counseling treatment plan.

Sessions are available as group session, workshop, or retreats. Individual sessions are also available. Talk to the facilitator to determine which type of session is best for you. Your facilitator will guide and support you through the process.

Look for a facilitator who’s licensed and has received proper training. You can use this tool to locate a practitioner near you.

TAKEAWAY
Takeaway

If you’d like to try holotropic breathing, seek out a trained facilitator who can guide you in the process. These facilitators are often psychologists, therapists, or nurses, which means they’re also licensed to practice. Having a licensed and certified practitioner would be the best choice. Make sure you’re aware of what you may experience during your session. You may wish to set your intentions beforehand.

If you have any concerns, discuss them with your doctor or facilitator before completing your session. You may wish to use this technique to complement or enhance your own personal mental, spiritual, or physical journey.

Holotropic Breathing Technique

by JOSEPH NICHOLSON Last Updated: Aug 14, 2017



Holotropic breathing is a technique developed by Dr. Stanislav Grof and his wife in the mid-1970s. As a psychotherapist, Grof was involved in earlier tests on the therapeutic potential of LSD. When psychedelics were peremptorily banned in the 1960s, Grof developed holotropic breathing as a means of simulating the psychedelic experience of LSD without the drug itself. Grof defines holotropic as "that which leads to wholeness." Before you begin, ask your doctor if holotropic breathwork is safe for you, especially if you have cardiovascular problems, high or low blood pressure, glaucoma, pregnancy, recent surgery, epilepsy, asthma or mental Illness.

Holotropic breathing is designed to allow the breather to experience deeper levels of their psyche than are usually available in a normal waking state. Thus, breathwork typically begins by creating an appropriate setting. A quiet location, such as would be used for a retreat, is often used, and a comfortable room that can be darkened should be chosen. The breather is usually accompanied by a sitter and, sometimes, a more advanced facilitator. Relaxing music should be chosen in advance and played in a format that will allow continuous play for several hours.
Relaxation

The breather lies supine on a mat with eyes closed. The sitter or facilitator then leads the breather through a meditative visualization to create deep relaxation. If you are the breather, you would breathe slowly and deeply during this period as you allow all parts of your body to relax. At the end of the guided meditation, the lights are dimmed and the music is allowed to play at sufficient volume to block any external noise.
Breathing

Once the music begins, you as the breather accelerate your rate of breath to a point near hyperventilation. The goal is to continue breathing deeply, but to do so quickly. Breath in through the nose and out through the mouth. Remaining on your back, continue breathing in this way for two to three hours, focusing on the internal experience and feelings reached through the shift in your awareness. The sitter and facilitator are there to assist in any way you need. Some coughing or choking feelings are not unusual, particularly in response to emotionally charged experiences. You may find yourself writhing, dancing, crying, laughing, shivering, speaking or any of a variety of other possibilities.
Drawing

After about two hours, the music is faded to silence. You, the breather, gradually resume a normal rate of breath. When you’re ready, open your eyes and allow the light in the room to return to normal. Take up a pen, crayon, marker or similar implement and draw a mandala to represent your experience. A mandala is a circle with shapes, scenes or symbols inside. If you have more artistic skill, you may choose to forgo the mandala form and draw a more expressive picture.

YOUR COMPLETE GUIDE TO HOLOTROPIC BREATHING BENEFITS AND TECHNIQUES

5 NOV 2017ACTIVITIES, BREATHING



Breathing is a necessary activity that we often leave on auto-pilot. However, if you take control of your breath, you’ll be amazed by what you can accomplish. For instance, you can regulate your state of mind, using measured breathing to take yourself from a fever pitch into a state of calm.

You can even use your breath to “transcend the narrow boundaries of the body ego” into a relaxed and even spiritual high. If that sounds like the stuff of arcane spiritual practices, you might be surprised to find that this was actually the goal of scientists. (Grof, Stanislav. Psychology of the Future: Lessons from Modern Consciousness Research. 2000.) That’s the goal of holotropic breathwork, a breathing technique that falls under the umbrella of transpersonal psychology.

WHAT DOES HOLOTROPIC MEAN?

Broken down, the word holotropic comes from the Greek holos, which means whole and trepein, which means to move toward. So, holotropic can be translated to mean moving towards wholeness.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF HOLOTROPIC THERAPY

Holotropic breathing was engineered by founders Dr. Stanislav Grof and Christina Grof, researchers who were trained in psychoanalytic therapy. While researching the effects of LSD, the Grofs became interested in altered states, or non-ordinary states, of consciousness and how they could help empower people to deal with their trauma. They sought to develop a method for achieving a psychedelic experience via only breathing, for use in self-exploration and inner healing.

Their solution was holotropic breathwork.

Holotropic breathwork combines intense breathing to get practitioners to transcend consciousness as a way to heal. Specifically, holotropic breathwork integrates short, intense breaths followed by long, deep breaths. Because of this, many consider holotropic breathwork to be a much more intense meditative practice.

BENEFITS OF HOLOTROPIC BREATHING

Despite it being an intense practice, holotropic breathing has great benefits for those who want to try. Since it was developed as a way for patients to deal with trauma, it’s been proven useful as a form of psychotherapy, especially helping those with avoidance behaviors.

It’s also been shown to decrease anxiety in its practitioners, with people feeling a sense of calm and creativity after each session.

Additionally, there have been personal reports of altered consciousness and greater self-discovery with this method. Others report a higher level of trust in self, release of stress, and clarity in personal issues they struggle with. (Brouillette, Gilles – Reported Effects of Holotropic Breathwork: An integrative Technique for Healing and Personal Change)

WHAT HAPPENS DURING A HOLOTROPIC BREATHING SESSION



Holotropic breathwork is a practice typically led by a certified professional holotropic breathwork facilitator in group sessions, though one-on-one sessions are available.

Participants are paired off with one person as the “breather” and the other as the “sitter.” The breather lies on a mat while the sitter makes sure the breather is comfortable, physically safe, and supported throughout the whole session. Later in the day, the pairs switch positions.

Often times, there is also evocative music to support the session. The music is usually rhythmic throughout the intense breathing and transitions into meditative music towards the end.

A trained practitioner is on site at all times to facilitate the exercises providing guidance and instruction.

Each session usually last between 2-3 hours. After the session, participants engage in a period of creative expression. Activities like drawing and coloring are encouraged, along with a discussion of experiences.

HOW TO PRACTICE HOLOTROPIC BREATHING

As mentioned, it’s best to find a trained practitioner to lead you in a holotropic breathwork session. If you’d like to try these methods at home, please be aware that it is more intense than meditative and there should be some acknowledgement of risks involved.

RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH HOLOTROPIC BREATHWORK

Holotropic breathwork is not recommended for people who are prone to panic attacks, have a history of psychosis, or those who suffer from the following medical conditions:
High or low blood pressure
Glaucoma
Cardiovascular disease

The intense emotions that arise from a holotropic breathwork session are a concern as well. This is why many recommend holotropic breathwork as part of an ongoing therapy to help individuals work through intense personal emotions and/or painful memories that arise.

TECHNIQUES FOR HOLOTROPIC BREATHWORK

We recommend visiting a holotropic breathwork workshop if you’re interested, but If you’d like to try it at home, start by finding a space that’s cool and dark.

Place a comfortable mat on the floor and lay down. Close your eyes, release any tension in your muscles, and start by taking a few relaxing breaths.

When you feel ready, deepen your breathing. Inhale through your nose and push out your stomach as far as you can. Watch your stomach decrease as you exhale.

Then start speeding up your breath. Keep your mind clear; you can repeat “Breathe in, Breathe out” quietly to yourself.

Continue this process until you feel yourself entering an altered state or whenever you’re ready.

[H@rry] 1414.【台湾联友】- FPI(7172)预计2018年2月派发【大红包】股息给股东们!

Author: moneyKing | Publish Date: 08 Dec 2017, 3:49 PM






http://harryteo.blogspot.my/2017/12/1414-fpi717220182.html

SOS Can Gadang double in 2 years time?

Author: sosfinance | Publish date: Mon, 25 Dec 2017, 04:17 PM

QUESTION FROM A SHAREHOLDER in tha Nov 8 AGM (Gadang's website)

Q: Capital City share of GDV is about RM324 million. How much has been recognised and how many more years to be recognised?

A: Currently, the Company has recognised about RM60m (P&L), thre is still about RM260m to be recognised within next 2 years. (Response from Dato' Ling Hock Hing). Many investors, including analysts thought it was substantially recognised.

WHAT IS THE ESTIMATES GADANG'S CURRENT VALUATION?

Gadang's business operations consist of three segments:

1. Construction

Book order of about RM1.9b (MRT2 RM1b, Cyberjaya Hospital RM500m, TRX Road 400m, plus others). Expected to be recognised in 3-3.5 years. Able to achieve around 10% PAT margin.

2. Property

Sale order of RM119m, 1Q of FYE2018.

Expected to launch RM500m FYE 2018. Remaining GDV about 3-5b. Focus mainly on affordable housing + JV Kwasa Land, JV in Puchong Land, Semenyih Land, Damansara Land, JV in Cyberjaya Land + Share of GDV of Capital City.

3. Concession Assets

Owns 4 water concessionaires in Indonesia. Improving tariff.

One mini hydro electric, coming onstream in last quarter of FYE2018.

One PV solar power panel, coming onstream FYE18/19.

Concession Assets was only RM28m in 2013. Today, it is about RM100m and more to come. Growing concession assets will provide sustainable earnings in the future.

FYE 2017

Profit after tax of about RM100m.

FYE2018 - FYE2020

Average PAT of about RM130m p.a.

Currently, based on latest quarterly, net cash of about RM50m. So, market capitalisation net of cash is about RM655m.

Using average estimated PAT of RM130m and PE of 10x, market capitalisation is about RM1.3b.

Estimated fair value is RM1.3b/658m shares = RM1.98 per share. (This has not include new contracts secured till FYE2020)

WHAT IS THE UPSIDE FROM 23 DEC 2017 AT RM1.07 PER SHARE

Please note that the estimation of the intrinsic value of RM1.98 per share does not give a guarantee that the share price will achieve it within one month or one year. Estimates of intrinsic value does not mean timing the market.

However, if we believe that in the next 3 FYEs, it can achieve the PAT of RM130m p.a., it is hopeful the share price can gradually reduce the gap to its the fundamental.

The prospective PE (FYE2018-2020) is RM655m/RM130m = PE of 5X.

So, I won't be suprise of the share price will run up gradually in the next 1-2 years nearer to its intrinsic value (plus minus 10%).

WILL IT BE A GREAT CHRISTMAS GIFT?

Too bad, not for 2017, perhaps for 2018? Should there be new contracts secured over the next one few years, I won't be suprise if it can double the current "unpopular" share price of RM1.07.

For the record, I have interest in Gadang at RM1.28, as well as RM1.07 per share. So far, 2017, I have received a dividend of 3 sen per share or a dividend yield of 2.3% p.a.

I prefer to work on perspective earnings for next few years rather than per quarter basis, as it may not be reflective especially for construction and property sectors.

This may not be popular among short term investors or speculators as their focus is on foward quarterly basis and extrapolate it accordingly. Hence, Gadang shares may not be suitable for speculators or investors with short term horizon (less than one year), i.e less than one year. In a short run, market is a voting machine and in a long run, it is a weighing machine (of course, we must review it regularly on the fundamental of the company - which don't change drastically in the short term).

Gadang, and some of the construction companies with properties businesses may not be "popular" at the moment (due to property overhang). Best time to buy a stock when it is least popular or "ignored" by the investor community.

Binasat's IPO public tranche oversubscribed by 34.23 times

Tan Xue Ying / theedgemarkets.com
December 28, 2017 19:13 pm +08

KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 28): Binasat Communications Bhd, en route to list on the ACE Market of Bursa Malaysia on Jan 8, 2018, saw the public portion of its initial public offering (IPO) oversubscribed by 34.23 times.

In a statement today, the telecommunication support service provider said a total of 10,465 applications for 458.02 million shares were received from the Malaysian public for the 13 million shares made available for public subscription at 46 sen apiece.

It also received a total of 5,946 applications for 199.49 million shares for the 6.5 million new shares allocated to Bumiputera investors, translating to an oversubscription rate of 29.69 times.

The remainder of 6.5 million shares for the public category saw 4,519 applications totalling 258.53 million shares, representing an oversubscription rate of 38.77 times.

Similarly, the group confirmed that its private placement of some 59.98 million shares and 40 million existing shares have been fully placed out to selected investors.

It is seeking to raise RM39.55 million through the initial public offering (IPO) to finance its expansion, which includes setting up a teleport in the Klang Valley and growth in Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam.

Out of the proceeds raised from the IPO, RM14.36 million will be used to finance the teleport, RM10.5 million of which has been allocated for its construction and the purchase of three acres (1.21ha) to four acres of land.

The enhancement of its operations and maintenance services will amount to RM4.9 million.

Another RM4.8 million of the IPO proceeds will be used to enhance its fibre optic network installation and commissioning service capability, involving setting up warehouses in Johor.

Meanwhile, RM10.79 million will be used for working capital over a two-year period while RM1.5 million has been allocated for its expansion into Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam.

Binasat's IPO, which entails a public issue of 85.98 million new shares and an offer for sale of 40 million existing shares at 46 sen each, represents a price-earnings ratio of 11.92 times based on earnings per share of 3.86 sen for the financial year ended June 30, 2017.

An Important Breathing Exercise

The Relationship Between Breathing and Anxiety

Neuroscientists have identified how exactly a deep breath changes your mind


Reuters/Lucy PemoniIn times of stress, science shows focusing on breathing can really help. 

TRY IT

November 19, 2017
Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University

Breathing is traditionally thought of as an automatic process driven by the brainstem—the part of the brain controlling such life-sustaining functions as heartbeat and sleeping patterns. But new and unique research, involving recordings made directly from within the brains of humans undergoing neurosurgery, shows that breathing can also change your brain.

Simply put, changes in breathing—for example, breathing at different paces or paying careful attention to the breaths—were shown to engage different parts of the brain.

Humans’ ability to control and regulate their brain is unique: e.g., controlling emotions, deciding to stay awake despite being tired, or suppressing thoughts. These abilities are not trivial, nor do humans share them with many animals. Breathing is similar: animals do not alter their breathing speed volitionally; their breathing normally only changes in response to running, resting, etc. Questions that have baffled scientists in this context are: why are humans capable of volitionally regulating their breathing, and how do we gain access to parts of our brain that are not normally under our conscious control. Additionally, is there any benefit in our ability to access and control parts of our brain that are typically inaccessible? Given that many therapies—Cognitive Behavioral Therapy, trauma therapy, or various types of spiritual exercises—involve focusing and regulating breathing, does controlling inhaling and exhaling have any profound effect on behavior?

This recent study finally answers these questions by showing that volitionally controlling our respirational, even merely focusing on one’s breathing, yield additional access and synchrony between brain areas. This understanding may lead to greater control, focus, calmness, and emotional control.

The study, conducted by my post-doctoral researcher, Dr. Jose Herrero, in collaboration with Dr. Ashesh Mehta, a renowned neurosurgeon at NorthShore University Hospital in Long Island, began by observing brain activity when patients were breathing normally. Next, the patients were given a simple task to distract them: clicking a button when circles appeared on the computer screen. This allowed Dr. Herrero to observe what was happening when people breath naturally and do not focus on their breathing. After this, the patients were told to consciously increase the pace of breathing and to count their breaths. When breathing changed with the exercises, the brain changed as well. Essentially, the breathing manipulation activated different parts of the brain, with some overlap in the sites involved in automatic and intentional breathing.

The findings provide neural support for advice individuals have been given for millennia: during times of stress, or when heightened concentration is needed, focusing on one’s breathing or doing breathing exercises can indeed change the brain. This has potential application to individuals in a variety of professions that require extreme focus and agility. Athletes, for example, have long been known to utilize breathing to improve their performance. Now, this research puts science behind that practice.

Beyond studying the ability of humans to control and regulate their neural activity volitionally, the study was also unique in that it utilized a rare method of neural research: directly looking inside the brains of awake and alert humans. Typical neuroscience studies involving humans use imaging techniques (i.e. fMRI or EEG) to infer the neural activity in people’s brain from outside the skull. But studies involving electrodes implanted in humans’ brains are rare. The ability to look inside the humans’ brains allows us to study thinking, deciding and even imagining or dreaming by directly observing the brain. The study subjects in our work were patients who had electrodes implanted in their brain as part of a clinical treatment for epilepsy. These patients were experiencing seizures that could not be controlled by medication and therefore required surgical interventions to detect the seizure focus for future resection.

Given that detection requires the patient to have a spontaneous seizure in order to identify the exact seizure onset location, which can take days, the patients are kept in the hospital with electrodes continuously monitoring their brain activity.

The research findings show that the advice to “take a deep breath” may not just be a cliché. Exercises involving volitional breathing appear to alter the connectivity between parts of the brain and allow access to internal sites that normally are inaccessible to us. Further investigation will now gradually monitor what such access to parts of our psyche that are normally hidden can reveal.

Learn how to write for Quartz Ideas. We welcome your comments at ideas@qz.com.

A Healing Crisis to Make You Whole: Breaking Down the Benefits of Holotropic Breathwork

https://psychedelictimes.com/psychedelic-therapy/a-healing-crisis-to-make-you-whole-breaking-down-the-benefits-of-holotropic-breathwork/
Posted on February 1, 2017 by


Holotropic breathwork helps individuals achieve healing through non-ordinary states of consciousness. Image source: Flickr user cea +.

In 2008, holotropic breathwork facilitator Martin Boroson wrote an article for Inside Out trying to dispel some of the more controversial myths surrounding the decades-old breathing practice. Holotropic breathwork is best known as a technique to achieve psychedelic-like states without using psychedelics, but Boroson was attempting to get at the technique’s deeper healing aspects.

When asked whether holotropic breathwork goes “too deep,” Boroson answered that people do indeed have deep, sometimes intense experiences, but that is an important element of the healing. The idea is fairly simple, if unconventional: only by amplifying certain aspects can you resolve them. In clinical terms, this is called a “healing crisis” in which you temporarily experience a worsening of symptoms as your body flushes out toxins or negative energies. A healing crisis can happen on a physical, emotional, or mental level, but the idea is generally the same—it gets worse before it gets better.

To clarify, a healing crisis is not par for the course with a holotropic workshop, but an intense experience is one of the therapy’s more famous qualities. Holotropic means “moving toward wholeness,” and the breathwork can perhaps be best explained as a practice of opening to a state of consciousness that moves us toward wholeness. Stanislav Grof, LSD pioneer and creator of holotropic breathwork, supported the idea that non-ordinary states of consciousness are inherently therapeutic because they help one tap into the collective unconsciousness and “the healer within”—not unlike some psychedelic-assisted therapies. As the breather, you guide yourself through the exercise at a pace and rhythm you’re comfortable with—you are always in control of your own experience.

The components of holotropic breathwork are fairly simple, but they coalesce into a formative force: elevated breathing for an extended period of time (usually 2-3 hours), laying on the ground, listening to rhythmic music, and doing it with a sitter.
Fast-Paced Breathing

The backbone of holotropic breathwork is a deep, fast-paced, rhythmic breath. Research from the 1940’s by psychologist Wilhelm Reich first showed that restricted breathing corresponds to a multitude of physical, emotional, and mental diseases, and deep breathing can open up those emotional and psychological blockages. This basic idea is echoed throughout many cultures—from the Hindu idea of prana to Chinese chi to Greek pneuma, societies throughout history have considered breath to be a powerful healer.

Fast-paced breathing is not only the cornerstone of holotropic breathwork, it’s also its most controversial aspect. In the Western medical community, rapid breathing is considered hyperventilation, which is pathologically categorized as dangerous because it causes carpopedal spasms in the hands and feet. However, this danger lies mostly in uneven breathing—in typical hyperventilation, you exhale more than you inhale, causing a rapid reduction of carbon dioxide in the body. As long as you maintain an even breath, you’ll maintain sufficient levels of air (remember, you can always back off if you ever feel out of control). It is true that breathing quickly can cause tension or pain, but by applying careful pressure to the body, you can effectively release tension that may have built up in your body for years.
Rhythmic Music

The music used in a holotropic breathwork session can range from classical symphonies to indigenous sacred music to electronic pieces, but overall, the music is rich and uplifting with a pulsing rhythm. This focus on rhythm is not accidental. Research shows that drumming decreases anxiety, eases chronic pain, and boosts immunity, and perhaps most interestingly, drumming helps you access the unconscious. Studies have shown that drumming at certain rhythms—3-5 beats/seconds, specifically—produces theta waves, the slower-moving brainwaves produced in deep meditative states and the REM sleep phases associated with dreaming.

While the specific pieces may vary, the music generally follows a narrative arc—a session will open with slower, trance-inducing music, then increase rhythmic intensity to what’s called “peak” or “breakthrough” music. After the peak, the intensity slows into emotionally moving “heart music,” and then into a final stage with calm, meditative music. This changing intensity is designed to support and mirror what practitioners experience on their inner journey.
Laying on the Ground

Laying down during a holotropic exercise provides several benefits. First, it allows you to focus on the inner experience because—unlike more traditional sitting meditations or pranayama exercises—there’s nothing you have to do physically. This idea will resonate with anyone who’s attended an ayahuasca ceremony, where participants lay on a mat for a whole night to allow for maximum contact with the unconscious.

Laying on the ground also provides the freedom to move in whatever manner you feel called to. That could mean anything from rolling to undulating to writhing on the floor, letting go of muscular tension as it surfaces. This also often includes making noises like crying, yelling, or groaning. Such extreme gestures are normal and encouraged—feeling free to follow your unconscious and amplify any symptoms is key to the process.

Beyond the freedom from regular body constraints, laying on the ground is, sensibly, very grounding. Laying down on the ground—sometimes called earthing—has been shown to reduce pain, promote relaxation, and improve sleep. This may be because you’re effectively aligning your own frequency with that of the earth’s (7.8 Hz), which is the same frequency as alpha waves, the brain waves associated with deep relaxation.
Having a Sitter for Support and Bodywork

While it’s possible to undergo holotropic breathwork one-on-one with a certified facilitator, sessions are usually held in groups. In a traditional session, each person pairs up with a partner and they alternate who is the breather and who is the “sitter.” A sitter is available for support throughout the session and can provide simple bodywork, like holding your hand or applying bodily pressure if you find tension building in certain parts of your body. Every session also has additional floaters, or facilitators, who manage the room overall. This setup provides a safety net, with each person being monitored by a partner in addition to the facilitators providing assistance to anyone who needs it.

In general, doing holotropic breathwork with a group also offers the opportunity for a more complete integration afterward. Some sessions include mandala drawing or small group sessions where individuals share their experiences. Doing it in a group opens the door to good follow-up and ensures you’re not left with an experience you don’t know how to process.
Focusing on the Inner Experience

“In a world where the dominant model of healing encourages the suppression of symptoms, it’s not surprising that any technique that encourages the amplification of symptoms will be controversial,” Martin Boroson wrote in response to the question about whether holotropic breathwork is too intense. But the particular elements of holotropic breathwork combine to create a supportive environment to process intense emotions. The rapid breathing technique and rhythmic music amplify symptoms and help you tap into non-ordinary states of consciousness. Laying on the ground provides freedom and comfort, and a sitter and facilitators provide any needed support. Ultimately, the focus of a holotropic breathwork session is on the inner experience: the healing comes from within. You are in charge of connecting to your inner unconsciousness in order to find the best way of healing in that moment.This is not a traditional therapy because in holotropic breathwork, you are your own therapist. The point is—no one can heal you but you.

(Icon) Gadang - Likely To Report Super Profit In 2018

Author: Icon8888 | Publish date: Thu, 28 Dec 2017, 12:51 PM

1. Share Price Retracement

Gadang reported a weak set of result on 25 October 2017. Since then, share price has retraced from RM1.28 to RM1.07.







Despite the set back, analysts are still positive about the stock. JF Apex and RHB Investment Bank expect earning to normalise in subsequent quarters, with EPS around 15 sen for FY2018.



(Source : JF Apex Securities)




(Source : RHB Investment Bank)

Based on existing price of RM1.07, Gadang looked undervalued, trading at prospective PER of merely 7.1 times.

Curious about the stock, I decided to take a closer look. What I found was interesting : there might be further upside to the analysts' earning forecast for 2018. The company still has huge earning coming in from its Capital 21 project in Johor.

2. Update On Capital 21

According to forum member Ricky Kiat who attended Gadang's AGM on 8 November 2017, there is still RM260 mil revenue to be booked in from Capital 21. The Capital 21 land cost is only RM31 mil. Based on assumption of 25% tax, the project will contribute RM171 mil to net profit going forward.



Unknown to may people, the Capital 21 Project has been listed on Singapore's Catalist (equivalent to malaysia's ACE Market) in May 2017 :




(Source : www.sgx.com)

Please click on the following link for Capital World's latest quarterly report and corporate presentation :-

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Capital%20World%201Q2018%20Results%20Ann.ashx?App=Announcement&FileID=478343

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Capital%20World%201Q2018%20Corp%20Presentatn.ashx?App=Announcement&FileID=478345

Capital World has been reporting decent profit since FY2015 :-






(Source : Capital World's corporate presentation for September 2017 quarterly report)

Actually, I am not so interested in how well Capital World is doing. What interests me is that the Capital 21 project is progressing well. This is because if the Capital 21 project is doing well, Gadang will get paid.

Perhaps the most interesting information from the September 2017 quarterly report is that Capital 21 is currently in Interior Design stage and targets to open in 2018.




(Source : Capital World's corporate presentation for September 2017 quarterly report)

Just to recap, Capital World's project in Johor comprises two components :

(a) the mall with GDV of RM1.3 billion; and

(b) office, service apartments, hotel, etc with GDV of RM500 mil.


(Source : Gadang's 2014 circular to shareholders)

As mentioned above, the mall is targeted to be completed and open in 2018. The remaining components (service aprtments, etc) will likely complete in 2020 (as per Gadang management's guidance during AGM). However, payment to Gadang is substantially based on the mall (RM300 mil out of the RM320 mil). Please refer to below :-




(Source : Gadang's 2014 circular to shareholders)

In this regard, with the opening of the mall, Gadang can expect to receive as much as RM240 mil (being RM300 mil less RM60 mil already received) from Capital World in 2018.

I have to point out that things might not be as simple as I describe above. It seemed that the RM300 mil is further split into RM217 mil and RM83.5 mil (as per table above), depending on Capital World's cash collection. Having said so, I think it is reasonably safe to assume that at least RM217 mil is payable to Gadang upon completion of the mall. Less out the RM60 mil already received, we can expect revenue of lets' say, RM157 mil in 2018 (the rest spills over to 2019 or perhaps 2020). After deducting RM31 mil land cost and 25% tax, 2018 net profit contribution from Capital 21 works out to be RM95 mil. Still a fantastic figure.

3. Concluding Remarks

My guess is that Gadang should do well in 2018. Due to rise in operating cost (steel, labour, etc), the group is likely to experience certain degree of margin compression going forward. However, this will be largely compensated by expansion in construction revenue as the group ramps up execution of its RM1.98 billion construction order book. Cushioned by huge incoming contribution from Capital 21 project, earning visibility for 2018 (and 2019, if Capital 21 spills over) is very good. At current level, risk vs reward seemed favorable.

Gadang will be one of my top picks for 2018.

2018 World Cup to bring cheer to breweries

Wong Ee Lin / The Edge Financial Daily
December 28, 2017 08:48 am +08

This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on December 28, 2017.




-A +A





KUALA LUMPUR: The year 2018 is largely seen as one that will remain challenging to local breweries, but higher disposable income and the upcoming World Cup 2018 in Russia will most likely support the sector’s earnings in the new year, according to TA Securities Holdings Bhd senior investment analyst Tan Kam Meng.

“Note that due to the time difference between Malaysia and Russia, we can expect one match to kick off at 8pm Malaysian time, every day, during the event,” said Tan in an email to The Edge Financial Daily, who foresees that the largest global football event held every four years will spur beer consumption worldwide.

Though Tan does not expect any increase in sin taxes — the common term for taxes levied on alcohol and cigarette players — he said 2018 will still remain challenging, due mainly to the rise of contrabands.

Beer excise duty rose to RM175 per 100% volume per litre on March 1, 2016, from RM7.40 per litre previously, while the 15% ad valorem (according to value) tax was removed.

“The new regulation on the legal purchasing age for alcoholic beverages, which raised the age from 18 to 21 effective Dec 1 2017, may encourage youngsters to switch to easily-available contrabands,” he said.

Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Bhd (Carlsberg Malaysia) is optimistic that its efforts to drive consumption through various integrated consumer promotions will spur sales growth, even though it anticipates consumer spending will remain prudent next year, according to Carlsberg Malaysia managing director Lars Lehmann.

“As outlined in our SAIL’22 strategies, we have many exciting campaigns for the year 2018: With an integrated Chinese New Year campaign in both the Malaysia and Singapore markets in the first quarter (1Q), football championships-related campaign in 2Q, as well as innovative projects in the pipeline to spur consumption, explore new frontiers and create more drinking occasions,” said Lehmann in an email exchange with The Edge Financial Daily.

Rolled out across its Malaysia and Singapore operations at end March, SAIL’22 sets the strategic direction of the group for the next seven years till 2022. It aims to strengthen the group’s core business, take advantage of growth opportunities, and deliver enhanced shareholder value. The strategy is supported by an efficiency and value creation programme named “Funding the Journey”, that will unlock resources and release funds for investments amid a more challenging operating environment.

As 2017 draws to a close, Lehmann also shared that he is positive that Carlsberg Malaysia is on track to deliver the targets outlined in the company’s 2017 strategic priorities under SAIL’22.

“In both our Malaysia and Singapore operations, our flagship brand Carlsberg and its new product innovation Carlsberg Smooth Draught registered growth in the mainstream while our premium brands, especially Kronenbourg 1664 and Somersby cider, doubled its growth rate this year as compared with 2016,” said Lehmann.

“We are also on track to deliver high and stable dividend yield for our shareholders,” he added.

Nevertheless, in anticipation of weaker consumer sentiment after the New Year and Chinese New Year festive periods, Lehmann urged the government not to raise excise duties on locally produced beers, as doing so will penalise the local brewers that manufacture and sell duty-paid beers. “Further hikes on duties may result in consumers sourcing for illicit beers when duty-paid beers become less affordable,” said Lehmann.

The only other listed brewery on Bursa Malaysia is Heineken Malaysia Bhd, which recorded stronger performance in 3Q this year, on the back of improved commercial execution and cost management, despite a slower start to financial year 2017 (FY17).

Net profit for its three months ended Sept 30, 2017 (3QFY17) rose 15.7% to RM65.87 million from RM56.92 million recorded in the corresponding three months last year. Revenue climbed 32.4% to RM509.59 million from RM384.82 million — boosted by the launch of its new mainstream cider brand Apple Fox in August and the commencement of sales of locally brewed Strongbow Apple Ciders.

Besides a more favourable brand mix, the company’s improved earnings performance was “partly due to easier comparatives in 3QFY16 as the market last year was recovering from volume impact resulting from a price increase that occurred in July 2016,” said Heineken Malaysia managing director Hans Essaadi in an email response to The Edge Financial Daily.

This resulted in a 4.6% year-on-year rise in the net profit for Heineken’s first nine months of FY17, to RM176.4 million from RM168.6 million, while revenue rose 1.1% to RM1.31 billion from RM1.3 billion.

Essaadi said he is confident that the company will end the year on a commendable note. By focusing on innovation in FY17, Heineken has gained traction through the launch of its mainstream cider brand Apple Fox Cider, he said.

“Our investment in cider is bearing fruit, as seen in our latest 3Q results, through the production of Strongbow Apple Ciders and Apple Fox at our Sungei Way Brewery,” said Essaadi, adding that Heineken Malaysia has also launched its zero-alcohol Tiger Radler 0.0% Lime Mint to cater to the growing demand for low- and no-alcohol products. In terms of cost efficiency, he said Heineken Malaysia will continue leveraging on Heineken’s global scale to unlock savings across the value chain.

Overall, Essaadi said Heineken Malaysia remains cautiously optimistic for 2018, despite the present challenges in the external environment.

Year to date, Heineken Malaysia shares have risen about 21.37% to RM18.82, while Carlsberg Malaysia have climbed some 15.45% to RM15.26.

“Based on our stock recommendations, that is Heineken Malaysia (hold; target price [TP]: RM19.14) and Carlsberg Malaysia (buy; TP: RM18.06), we expect both companies’ share prices to be well-supported at current levels. I believe the share prices can still go higher next year,” said Tan, as he pointed to the World Cup 2018 as a near-term catalyst.

Meanwhile, to better curb the rise of contraband beers in the country, Lehmann said the brewery has been working closely with the relevant authorities and the Royal Malaysian Customs (Customs) to step up enforcement efforts.

It is also working with the ministry of finance, Customs and the Performance Management and Delivery Unit (Pemandu) to develop strategies to reduce contraband and help the government address loss of tax revenue, in the form of unpaid excise, import duties and the goods and services tax, from contraband consumption, said Lehmann.

“We are also hopeful that the government would consider lowering the excise duties of locally produced beers so as to make them more competitive, hence, less incentive for the trading of illicit products,” Lehmann added.

Essaadi highlighted that if the contraband issue is addressed effectively, it represents a win-win scenario for the government and the industry, with additional revenue for both.

He also highlighted that the current tax regime on beer, as compared with wine and spirits, remains inequitable. “Beer and stout, which are typically of lower alcohol by volume, are taxed at a higher rate than wine and spirits, which contain higher alcohol levels,” he said. Heineken, he added, will continue engaging with the government to create greater understanding on this matter.

分析员:默默酝酿涨势 大宗商品将迎十年牛市

110点看 2017年12月28日

(芝加哥27日讯)在2017年股票和加密货币等资产价格大幅上涨之际,大宗商品价格的表现却黯然失色。

对一些交易员来说,这意味着涨势可能正在酝酿之中。

跟踪24种原材料的标准普尔GSCI总回报指数,相对美国股市基准指数标普500指数徘徊在接近历史低点附近。

佛罗里达州Hackett金融咨询公司总裁肖恩说,这表明大宗商品将从2018年开始启动一个长达10年的大型牛市 。

“2008年的时候,这个估值指标发出了强烈的股票买进信号,并且事实证明其正确性。”

肖恩日前在一份给客户的报告中表示:“现在出现了恰恰相反的情况,大宗商品发出了强烈买进信号,并且将以牺牲股票为代价。”

Research house bullish over Hibiscus’ Sabah oil field purchase

BUSINESS NEWS
Thursday, 28 Dec 2017

PETALING JAYA: The acquisition of the North Sabah enhanced oil recovery (EOR) field by Hibiscus Petroleum Bhd
image: https://cdn.thestar.com.my/Themes/img/chart.png will provide immense opportunities to increase the group’s production rate.

PublicInvest Research said there is access to 62,000 barrels of 2P (proven and probable) oil reserves and 79,000 barrels of 2C (best estimate of contingent resources).

“We continue to be excited over this impending acquisition. The entitlement of an estimated 6,000 barrels per day production from North Sabah operations net to Hibiscus is expected to aggregate about 9,500 barrels per day production for the group,” the research house said in its latest report.

Hibiscus’ share price continued its rally yesterday, being the fifth most actively-traded stock with a volume of 64.69 million shares. The counter closed 3.5% higher at 88 sen.

Hibiscus has entered into a novation agreement for the assignment and transfer of Sabah Shell Petroleum Co Ltd and Shell Sabah Selatan Sdn Bhd’s 50% interest in the North Sabah EOR production-sharing contract for US$25mil (RM102mil).

The purchase comprises four producing fields and operatorship of all associated equipment and assets, including the Labuan Crude Oil Terminal.

Hibiscus will continue production as well as further develop petroleum resources at the said field.

“This is a very significant step towards the completion of the deal, now expected no later than March 31, 2018.

“This affirms our ‘outperform’ rating on Hibiscus, with an unchanged target price of RM1.06, accounting for ongoing contributions from its Anasuria Cluster in the North Sea and the on-coming contributions from the North Sabah EOR field, valued at 48 sen and 58 sen per share.

“There remains scope for further upside from the possible conversion of 2C to 2P reserves for the North Sabah field, which we have not accounted for in our computations,” said PublicInvest Research.

The research house added that a structured transfer of the operatorship process is ongoing, governed by the terms of a transfer of operatorship agreement, which was executed when the sale and purchase agreement was signed between the three parties on Oct 12 last year.

The commercial arrangement of the deal is for net economic benefits and risks in the asset to accrue to Hibiscus from Jan 1, 2017.

In a separate development, on behalf of Hibiscus board of directors, RHB Investment Bank Bhd announced that Bursa Securities has given the company an extension of three months from Jan 7, 2018 until April 6, 2018 to complete its proposed private placement of up to 144,384,429 new ordinary shares, representing up to 10% of the existing issued ordinary share capital of Hibiscus.

Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/12/28/research-house-bullish-over-hibiscus-sabah-oil-field-purchase/#8j365qtQzqS1M6tz.99

Kim Loong to complete share split in six months

BUSINESS NEWS
Thursday, 28 Dec 2017
by hanim adnan

Gooi: We will be looking to set up another palm oil mill in Sarawak.

PETALING JAYA: Kim Loong Resources Bhd
image: https://cdn.thestar.com.my/Themes/img/chart.png is targeting to complete its proposed three-for-one share split and free warrants exercise within the next five to six months.

According to managing director Gooi Seong Heen, the plantation and palm oil milling group hoped the share split will help improve liquidity in its shares and attract more retail participation.

He told StarBiz that the free share warrants were mainly to reward Kim Loong’s shareholders.

Of late, the share price of Kim Loong has been on the rise after the company declared a special single-tier dividend of six sen per share for the financial year ending Jan 31, 2018 (FY18).

Last Friday, the group reported a higher net profit of RM27.9mil for the third quarter ended Oct 31, 2017 compared with RM25.1mil in the same period last year.

Its revenue also grew to RM289.42mil compared with RM248.1mil a year earlier.

Meanwhile, JF Apex Securities favoured Kim Loong for its prudent management, consistent earnings posted by the group for the past few years and the management’s generosity in rewarding shareholders.

The research unit said in its report that investors would welcome the corporate exercise as “it will improve the liquidity of Kim Loong’s shares, given the higher number of shares coupled with the lower entry price.”

The enlarged share base after the exercise would be about 935.41 million from 311.8 million, it said, adding that the theoretical adjusted market price is expected to be RM1.37 based on the share price of RM4.11.

The proposed free warrants is on the basis of one warrant for every 20 subdivided shares with exercise price, which is to be determined later.

“We understand that the bonus of free warrants will have a tenure of seven years and may be exercised at any time during the tenure.

“The enlarged share based will further increase to 980.284 million after taking into account both the share split and free warrants.”

Apart from the special single-tier dividend of six sen per share with ex-date on Jan 10, 2018, the research unit also expects Kim Loong to declare another nine sen per share in fourth quarter 2018, which brings its total dividend to 27 sen per share for FY18.

JF Apex has also upgraded Kim Loong to a “buy” call from “hold” with an unchanged target price of RM4.59.

On Bursa Malaysia yesterday, Kim Loong shares closed seven sen higher at RM4.48.

Meanwhile, as part of the group’s expansion plan, Gooi said: “We will be looking to set up another palm oil mill in Sarawak and acquiring additional plantation land bank in suitable locations such as in Johor, Pahang, Sabah and Sarawak.

“However, we are still at the stage of identifying the suitable land for both mill and estates.”

For now, the group would continue to improve the efficiency of its existing operations, he added.

Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/12/28/kim-loong-to-complete-share-split-in-six-months/#4C1fDVMbYG5dAMlm.99

Goals Stated as a Well-Formed Outcome: The Super Trader Program Example by Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.

Trading Tip
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When you have goals, you typically produce some sort of result through acting on them. If you want these goals to produce effective end ecological1 results, however, then the goals must fit the criteria of being well-formed.

These are a set of five conditions for goal outcomes, established through the NLP community. They include:

The outcome must be stated in positive terms. Generally, it is practically and logically impossible to set a goal which is expressed in terms of the negative of an experience. So if someone said, “I don’t want to argue with my wife,” then a better approach is find out what the person wants instead of the negative experience. For example, it might be stated instead as: "I want to feel positive about whatever my wife does knowing she had a good heart and great intentions." That’s much easier to achieve that the negative experience of not arguing.

The outcome must be testable and demonstrable — in other words, stated in terms of sensory specific evidence. Thus, you need to know through evidence you can perceive that you are moving toward your results so your goal must state how that will be accomplished. Ideally, two criteria are necessary: 1) to be clear about how you will know you have achieved the outcome for yourself, and 2) how will others in your life know that you have achieved the outcome.

The desired state must be initiated and maintained by the student, not the coach. The locus of control must be with the student which is usually in the form of accessing resources. So, if someone said, “I want my wife to stop criticizing me and telling me to get a real job,” that outcome would be out of the person’s control. Instead, the person would need to state a positive outcome such as determining what the wife might being doing instead of criticizing you and saying to get a real job. The answer also needs to be demonstrable, as described above. Then you need to determine what resources are necessary to achieve that outcome, with those resources being in the client’s control.

The goal must preserve any positive by-products of the present state. Those positive by-products tend to be negative habits (i.e., drinking too much) that are used to achieve the positive state (i.e., feeling relaxed). So whatever is being done must also preserve the relaxation that is desired or the person might just go back or develop other bad habits to achieve them. For example, many people who are obese may have an issue with the opposite sex and feel unattractive. What would happen if they felt they were attractive and were then approached by people of the opposite sex? If their goal was to “become attractive,” then they would need the resources to be able to deal with that particular issue. In addition, the goal must be able to deal with any future impacts of the desired outcome. So what will the person's system gain or lose as a result of achieving the desired outcome. For example, if you become a successful trader, what are the ramifications of achieving that? What if you have issues with having a lot of money — for example, what if you believe that people will take advantage of you; cheat you; or if you believe that rich people abuse their families. The new outcome must be able to deal with those possibilities.

Finally, the desired outcome must be appropriately contextualized and be ecologically sound — i.e. taking into account your other responsibilities, the people around you, etc. For example, if you state your outcome using a universal quantifier such as (all, always, never), you may find situations in which the outcome desired is not appropriate. I always want to follow my trading rules, however, you might find conditions in which your trading rules might stop working, such as when the market type changes. So you must be able to contextualize the outcome. A good way of understanding that is that most beliefs, no matter how bad they might seem, might have some context is which they are useful. Similarly, most beliefs have contexts in which they are not useful.

Establishing a Well-Formed Outcome for the Super Trader Program

So now let’s look at the Super Trader program as a goal (i.e., to become a Super Trader) with a well-formed outcome. So here is my version of it.

The Super Trader program will produce massive transformation to enable candidates to be able to follow the Tharp Think principles, develop a great business handbook to run a trading business, and develop three non-correlated trading systems (that work in different market types) that they trade profitably and at 95% or higher efficiency.

This statement still needs a little more detail to flesh out the well-formed conditions. It is definitely stated as a positive outcome.

So how is the outcome testable and demonstrable? How do we know the outcome is achieved and that progress is being made?

Outcome One: Five Major Transformations

I talked about these transformations in a recent article about the Super Trader program.

First, I expect a candidate’s awareness and level of consciousness (pretty much synonymous) to increase during the program. We measure this by the happiness test. By the end of Super Trader 1, I would like their happiness score to be consistently above 60 (although 70 is better). This is measurable. 

Second, I would like them to consider that their beliefs are useful (within a context) and not absolute. I would also like them to understand how they can easily change their beliefs. This would be demonstrated by numerous examples. 

Third, negative states should be observed and witnessed and then accepted. Acceptance is a metastate which tends to change the basic state to a much higher level, however, I want them also to have some mastery over feeling release. When I see evidence of this sufficiently in their weekly reports, then I know it is accomplished. 

Next, I’m looking for their ability to converse with their Higher Self and to do Transformational Meditation on issues that come up. Examples of this would include daily dialogues with their Higher Self and successful completion of Libby Adams 28 day course. 

Finally, I’d like them to find their purpose in life and to be certain that they have actually found their purpose. 

And naturally, all these transformations will lead to numerous personal transformations.

These are demonstrated on an ongoing basis through the successful completion of the Super Trader lessons and their weekly progress reports. There are currently 20 lessons in the new Super Trader 1.

Outcome Two: Develop a Trading Business Rooted in A Strong Business Handbook that proves they have a strong psychological foundation and find the resources to solve any problems that arise

This is demonstrated by the satisfactory completion of their business handbook that meets all the criteria given to them for the handbook. Most of those criteria are given in Trading Beyond the Matrix.
In addition, they will demonstrate this goal on an ongoing basis through the completion of the lessons in Super Trader 2.

Outcome Three: Develop Three Non-Correlated Systems that Work in Various Market Types

This outcome is easily demonstrated through their presentation of each of their systems, to include the beliefs behind the system; the logic behind the system; why it will work in certain market types and not work in other types; and whatever statistics they can present on the performance of the system.

Outcome Four: Trade the Systems Profitably at 95% Efficiency or Better.

Demonstration of this is obvious through monthly trading logs showing their profits and losses and mistakes made. And when they have 100 trades, meeting the criteria, with at least 10 from each system, then they are eligible for graduation.

Outcome Five: Demonstrate that they have developed the skill to handle any new psychological roadblocks that might come up during ST 2 and ST 3.

This is demonstrated through weekly reports about roadblocks that come up and how they handle it. 

Its culmination is graduation.

So How is the Program Maintained by the Student?

This one is fairly easy because Super Trader candidates do the work and send in the lessons and weekly reports. If they don’t do it, it doesn’t get done. My job as their coach is to answer questions, help them get through difficult times when they ask for help (primarily on their psychological issues), and to make sure they do a good job on the lessons. Doing a good job on the lessons is critical for their progress.

It’s all about having the appropriate resources to accomplish each task. Generally, a good coach helps clients by asking questions. I noticed recently in watching videos of Dr. L. Michael Hall’s metacoaching program that about 90% of what a good coach does is ask questions. And the questions are all about helping the client find their own resources.

How Does the Program Deal with the Positive By-Products of Where they are now and with the Future Implications of What will happen when their achieve their goals?

One difference between the Super Trader program and the normal NLP client coach relationship is that our goals are huge and involve finding and tackling many issues. For example, one lesson requires that they identify and evaluate the impact of about 400 identity level beliefs. This finds and overcomes many issues before they ever could arise in the program. Another lesson requires that they come up with a complete life history, including beliefs formed and issues that might have come up in the past. Again, this helps them identify demons well before they arise in the Super Trader Program. And finally we have at least four lessons that deal with negative states or resources that they must process. As a result, when they complete all of this work we expect that very few issues will come up during trading that they have not already dealt with.

In addition, when they complete ST1, they must also respond to a number of questions to show that they are capable of facing whatever issues might come up when they start applying what they have learned to the program. This turns the application sections, developing a trading business, developing three systems, and trading efficiently into an applied psychological exercise.

How is the Program Appropriately Contextualized and Ecologically Sound?

First, trading is contextualized in the program as the candidates’ full time job (if it isn’t already) or at least a major supplement to their income. Thus, the whole program lies within the context of a major aspect of their lives, not some minor problem area.

Second, they will complete an extensive program of evaluating their beliefs using a certain context and not in others. And they will have learned that there are probably no absolute beliefs that apply to all situations. Context is rooted in their educational process.

Third, one of the major transformations is to find their life’s purpose and to have trading fit within that context. Finding one’s purpose generally changes most people’s lives and when trading becomes part of that context, it almost guarantees a sound ecology check.

Finally, everyone in the program learns that trading is simply a measure of their spiritual growth. Here spirituality is defined as a larger system — family, community, global, universal. It’s an inner journey of discovering who they are. Once again, this context becomes a huge ecological check.

Summary

If this information about using well-formed goals is new to you, I encourage you to begin to implement this practice for current goals in your life. I recently restructured the Super Trader Program (see last week’s article), and I have personally found the well-formed goal questions very impactful in this process!

The ecology check is a key step in every NLP technique. It essentially involves assessing the impact that a particular change of behavior will have on the rest of the system or systems of which the person is a part.

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Do You Move Toward Your Goals or Away from What You Don’t Want? by Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.

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One of the most critical exercises in my Peak Performance Home Study Course is the value elicitation exercise in the third volume. Tony Robbins does a very expensive workshop in Fiji on this process, but the complete instructions for doing it by yourself are in the Peak Performance Home Study Course. However, I’ve noticed that exercise is primarily for people who move toward their goals.

People who move toward their goals, once they spend a few days doing the value elicitation exercise will find that they have a complete picture of what’s important to them. However, people who move away from things might not be as satisfied with the results because they may have negative values such as avoiding failure or rejection or abandonment.

As a result, I’ve prepared the following test to help you out.

Before reading any further, take the test (there are only 4 questions), and write down the answers that come to you first.

1. What are three things you look for when you buy a car?
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2. Why do you want your three most important goals in life?
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3. Are you more likely to move toward what you want or away from what you don’t want?
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4. If you were to buy a dog, what three qualities would you look for?
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To evaluate this test, notice whether your responses tended to be positive or negative. For positive values put a plus sign in the space next to your answers. For negative values put a minus sign in the space next you your answer. The illustrations below will help you decide whether your answer is positive or negative.

For example, for question 1:

“I wanted a car that wasn’t in the shop all the time like my last clunker.” This is a negative response. If your reason sounds like that, put a negative sign by it.

“I really liked the design of the car.” This is a positive response; put a positive sign by it.

For question 2:

“I want to be a successful trader so I don’t have a stupid boss breathing down my back.” This is a negative response because the motivation is to get away from your boss. Put a negative sign by any like this.
“I want the freedom to have my own hours, do what I want, and make unlimited income.” This is a move toward goal so put a plus sign by it.

For question 3:

If you answered "move toward," put a plus sign by it. If you answered "move away from", put a minus sign by it.

For question 4 notice whether you are looking for positive or negative qualities:

"I want a dog that doesn’t shed." This is avoiding something so put down a negative sign.

"I want a dog that’s really loyal and smart." This is a positive quality, so put a plus sign by your answer.

Now add up your plus and minus signs. If you have six or more plus signs, then you tend to be a "move toward" person. If you have six or more minus signs, then you tend to be a "move away from" person. If you are a "move toward" person, then the value elicitation exercise in the course will have the most value for you. And I’m assuming that most traders are "move toward" people. On the other hand, if you are a "move away from" person, then looking at what values you most want to avoid may have great benefit for you. If that’s you, then instead of listing all the positive things you want, list all the things you most want to avoid and do the same exercise as it is in the Peak Performance Course.

In addition, you may want to explore why you are a “move away from” person. Changing that could have a major effect on your success. But that’s the topic of another article.

About the Author: Trading coach, and author, Dr. Van K. Tharp is widely recognized for his best-selling books and his outstanding Peak Performance Home Study program - a highly regarded classic that is suitable for all levels of traders and investors. You can learn more about Van Tharp www.vantharp.com.

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