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Wednesday, November 30, 2016

EcoWorld's RM8.58b Eco Ardence township receives 85% take-up since September launch

By Chester Tay / theedgemarkets.com | November 30, 2016 : 12:28 PM MYT

SHAH ALAM (Nov 30): Eco World Development Group Bhd's (EcoWorld) RM8.58 billion township Eco Ardence has received an 85% take-up since its launch in September this year.

At the opening of the Eco Ardence sales gallery today, EcoWorld's chairman Tan Sri Liew Kee Sin said the 533-acre freehold Eco Ardence's first phase consists of 432 semi-D and bungalow units, priced from RM1.3 million.

"The group is delighted to open this new sales gallery, after the very successful launch of Phase 1 of Eco Ardence in September. With a full-fledged gallery in place, we will now be able to serve our customers better and showcase the project to its full extent," he said.

Eco Ardence is located with access via four major highways — the New Klang Valley Expressway, Federal Highway, Elite Highway and the Guthrie Corridor.

Via these highways, the project is 11km to Klang, 16km to Subang Jaya, 18km to Petaling Jaya, 24km to Damansara, 30km to Kuala Lumpur and 52km to KLIA.

EcoWorld President and chief executive officer Datuk Chang Khim Wah said the response for Eco Ardence had been very encouraging, as it is an ideal township for upgraders from surrounding townships.

"We see a huge potential for this market from surrounding matured developments such as Klang, Setia Alam and Subang Jaya. With the sales gallery up and running, we will be able to showcase Eco Ardence to more people and serve customers with our warm EcoWorld hospitality," he said.

Eco Ardence offers gated and guarded landed strata homes with 20-feet back lane gardens.

Chang added that home designs suitable for all walks of life have also been incorporated.

"The entire master plan for Eco Ardence is designed to cater for walking and cycling from one point to another, via dedicated walkways and cycling paths to promote a healthy lifestyle for our residents," Chang said.

The developer aims to achieve a Green Building Index certified township status, and conservation efforts are prioritised to that end.

Carlsberg seen to do well on demand inelasticity

By Hong Leong Investment Bank Research / The Edge Financial Daily | November 30, 2016 : 10:42 AM MYT



This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on 30 November, 2016.

Carlsberg Brewery (M) Bhd
(Nov 29, RM13.82)

Maintain neutral call with an unchanged target price of RM14.69: We like Carlsberg Brewery (M) Bhd for its relatively high dividend yield, diversified geographical earnings base, resilient earnings and low capital expenditure requirements.

Nonetheless, in the near term, we expect Sri Lanka to be loss-making and domestic subdued sentiments to bound volume growth.

Year to date, revenues for the nine months ended Sept 30, 2016 (9MFY16) was flattish, growing 0.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) before adjusting for the Luen Heng F&B Sdn Bhd divestment.

This is largely attributed to stronger contributions from both Singapore and Malaysia operations. Higher domestic sales in Malaysia and Singapore, coupled with higher exports to Sri Lanka, effective cost management and higher profits from Maybev Pte Ltd delivered core profit growth of 7.4% y-o-y.

Y-o-y revenues contracted by 3%, namely on the back of weaker consumer sentiments in Malaysia. Revenues from its Malaysian operations declined 7.6%, whilst Singapore saw revenues increasing 5.3% from volumes.

Operating profits declined 27% due to greater price discounts to clear old inventory and higher marketing expenses. Group profits declined 29.7% y-o-y.

The management guided that high alcoholic beer such as Skol Super, Royal Stout and Special Brew, which had upward price revisions circa 1.3% in July, have seen a decline in sales.

However, we are of the opinion that this is a knee-jerk reaction to the recent price and product revision.

We expect domestic market conditions for the remainder of 2016 to remain challenging. Nonetheless, the group should be able to deliver a good performance on demand inelasticity and the upcoming festive and holiday period.

We continue to advocate that the duty hike effect is nullified by the potential to reduce the alcohol by volume or “water down” beers under the new excise structure. — Hong Leong Investment Bank Research, Nov 29

Alliance Financial Group - Lacklustre

Author: kiasutrader   |   Publish date: Wed, 30 Nov 2016, 09:31 AM 


We revised our TP downwards with a MARKET PERFORM call as earnings will be impacted on a slightly higher loan loss provisions with stable NIM. While management is still optimistic of mid-to-high single digit loans growth, asset quality will be a challenge. Nonetheless, the management is still confident in containing costs and stabilizing NIM.
6M17 core net profit (CNP) was within expectations accounting for 49% of our and consensus estimates with an improvement of 4% YoY. Overall performance was lacklustre as its top line improved by just 2% YoY dragged by falling Net Interest Income (NII) and Non- Interest Income (NOII) but mitigated by solid improvement in Islamic Banking income at 22%. Pretax was up by 3% due to lower credit costs of 18bps with operating expenses (opex) inching marginally by 1%. Deposits still outperformed loans growing at 5% vs 3%. On a positive note, asset quality improved by 18bps to 0.9%. No change in performance on a quarterly basis with CNP flat for the quarter as the top line declined 1% despite declining allowances for impairments by 2bps to 0.17% and declining opex by 1%. Loans and deposits rebounded for the quarter by 2% and 3%, respectively. An interim dividend per share of 8.5 sen was declared (within our expectation) representing a 50% payout.

6M17 vs 6M16, YoY

  • Top line growth was somber at 1.9% with Islamic Banking improving at 21.9% and dragged by declining performances from (NII) at 1.1% and (NOII) at 4.9%. Drop in NOII was mostly due to forex loss of RM20.4m vs RM9.2m gain a year ago.
  • NIMs fell by 6bps as fall in average lending yield was faster than fall in cost of funds (-14bps vs -5bps).
  • Cost to Income Ratio (CIR) improved slightly by 44bps to 46.5% (vs. industry’s 48.8%) as total income outpaced opex growth (+0.9%).
  • Loans growth was lower than the year before at +2.9% (6M16: +10.2%), deposits were slower at +4.9% (6M16: +8.1) vs. the industry loan/deposit growth of +4.2%/+0.8%. (We had expected growth of +8%/+6%). Loans were driven by the SME segment which grew +14.0% (6M16: +20.3%) whilst deposit growth was driven by the business enterprises at +13.8% (6M16: +10.9) but mitigated by falling individual depositors by 3.5% (6M16: -2.2%). Islamic financing grew 4.2%.
  • LDR fell by 2ppts to 84.6% (vs. industry average of 88.6%) as loans growth was subdued vs deposits. CASA grew at 2.8% but ratio fell 70bps to 32.9%.
  • Assets quality improved as Gross Impaired Loans (GIL) fell 18bps to 0.9% but still better than the industry’s GIL of 1.6. The improved ratio is aided by some RM35.6m Restructured & Rescheduled (R&R) loans reclassified as performing. Mortgage loans make up 49% of the total impaired loans. Likewise, credit charge cost was down by 2bps to 0.18% (we had expected 13bps in credit cost) due to better recoveries. Loan loss coverage (LLC) minus regulatory reserves improved by 9ppts to 101.9%. Industry’s LLC was at 89.4%
  • CET1 and CAR improved by 47bps and 316bps to 12.2% and 16.8% (after deducting proposed dividends) well above the regulatory requirements of 7% and 10.5%), respectively.
  • Annualised ROE fell by 50bps to 10.9% as (vs. our estimate of 10.6%) due to improved shareholders’ equity by 9.8%.

2Q17 vs. 1Q17, QoQ

  • Bottom line was flat at RM132.6m as top line declined by 1.1% despite falling opex (-1.0%) and loan loss provisions by 7.3%.
  • Fall in top line due to falling NII (-3.7%) and NOII (-8.7%) but mitigated by improvement in Islamic Banking income at 16.5%.
  • NIMs fell 6bps in average lending yield, faster than fall in cost of funds (-10bps vs -4bps due to the OPR cut).
  • CIR was flattish at 46.5%.
  • Loans and deposits rebounded for the quarter at 1.7% and 2.9%, respectively, pushing LDR downwards by 1ppst to 84.6%.
  • Asset quality improved as GIL improved by 23bps to 0.9% with credit costs lower by 2bps to 0.17%.
NIMs likely to be stable. Despite moderate loan growth for 1H17, management maintains loans to improve at mid-to-high single-digit for FY17 due to loan mix and better risk adjusted returns, especially from the SME and Commercial segments. Profitability will be driven by almost flattish NIM and credit costs contained at 25bps to 30bps. We are inclined to believe that downward pressure on NIMs will be minimal with COF unlikely to track higher as deposit taking will be slower in tandem with subdued loans growth. Management indicated it is comfortable with the current LDR of ~85% reinforcing our view that deposit taking will not be intense. Although asset quality has improved, management is cautious on the quality of its portfolio going forward. And, being cautious, we tweaked our credit costs assumptions higher for FY17. We make slight changes to our assumptions of: (i) loans growth at 8%/9% for FY17/FY18 (unchanged), (ii) deposits to grow at 6% for both FY17 and FY18 (unchanged), (iii) NIMs flattish at 2.05% for FY17 and improving by 4bps for FY18 (previously improving by 10bps for FY17 and stabilizing for FY18), and (iv) credit costs at 20bps for both FY17/FY18 (previously at 13bps for both FY17/FY18).
Earnings forecasts revised. As there a few changes in our assumptions, our FY17E/FY18E earnings are revised downwards by 5%/1% to RM520m/RM558m.
Target Price revised, but call maintained. Our revised TP is now RM3.97 (from RM4.08 previously) due to the cut in earnings on an unchanged blended FY17E PB/PE ratio of 1.1x/12.4x. With lacklustre performance ahead, we maintain MARKET PERFORM.
Downside risks to our call are: (i) lower-than-expected margin squeeze, and (ii) lower-than-expected loans and deposits growth, and (iii) worse-than-expected deterioration in asset quality.
Source: Kenanga Research - 30 Nov 2016

Free Cash Flow

Free cash flow (FCF) is a measure of how much cash a business generates after accounting for capital expenditures such as buildings or equipment. This cash can be used for expansion, dividends, reducing debt, or other purposes.

HOW IT WORKS (EXAMPLE):

The formula for free cash flow is:

FCF = Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures

The data needed to calculate a company's free cash flow is usually on its cash flow statement. For example, if Company XYZ's cash flow statement reported $15 million of cash from operations and $5 million of capital expenditures for the year, then Company XYZ's free cash flow was $15 million - $5 million = $10 million.

It is important to note that free cash flow relies heavily on the state of a company's cash from operations, which in turn is heavily influenced by the company's net income. Thus, when the company has recorded a significant amount of gains or expenses that are not directly related to the company's normal core business (a one-time gain on the sale of an asset, for example), the analystor investor should carefully exclude those from the free cash flow calculation to get a better picture of the company's normal cash-generating ability.

Investors should also be aware that companies can influence their free cash flow by lengthening the time they take to pay the bills (thus preserving their cash), shortening the time it takes to collect what's owed to them (accelerating the receipt of cash), and putting off buying inventory (again, preserving cash). It is also important to note that companies have some leeway about what items are or are not considered capital expenditures, and the investor should be aware of this when comparing the free cash flow of different companies.

WHY IT MATTERS:

The presence of free cash flow indicates that a company has cash to expand, develop new products, buy back stock, pay dividends, or reduce its debt. High or rising free cash flow is often a sign of a healthy company that is thriving in its current environment. Furthermore, since FCF has a direct impact on the worth of a company, investors often hunt for companies that have high or improving free cash flow but undervalued share prices -- the disparity often means the share price will soon increase.

Free cash flow measures a company's ability to generate cash, which is a fundamental basis for stock pricing. This is why some people value free cash flow more than just about any other financial measure out there, including earnings per share.

SUCCESS(7207)~ 盈利创历史新高,前风变压器重振雄风?~WSWT~

Author: WeShare WeTrade | Publish date: Tue, 29 Nov 2016, 11:48 PM

一些读者可能会发现,我们部落格除了在首三篇文章有介绍过SUCCESS这间公司外,再也没有任何文章报导这家公司。原因很简单,因为这家公司是我们2015年的选股,并在2015年尾已经卖完手上所有的票。但是今早见到该公司惊人的单季盈利,还是吓了一跳。



去年同季盈利只有3.5m,但本季却有高达13m的盈利。以数据来看盈利是增加了271%,也强势地从上个季度的亏损中走了出来。经过多年对该公司的盈利追踪,印象中也只有一个季度可以达到超过10m的盈利,而本季度的13m盈利可说是历史单季最高纪录了。

所以今早一开盘,股价就飙了,参考以下股价走势:



上个月公布亏损的业绩时,股价狂泻,而今日突破新高的盈利发布后股价也拉回了狂泻前的2.20水平。

对于这次的季度表现,管理层表示说是因为改进了变压器和照明灯的生产过程,从而降低了生产成本。而降低成本将会是公司的首要目标,以便在来年可以继续获利。







从这次的季度的表现来看,公司的策略是成功的,创造出单季最大盈利及成功转亏为盈。但有一点值得担忧的是营业额并没有增加,而仔细观察公司生意也与“石油化学”,“水务处理”及“发电厂”有关联,以目前油气业下滑而发电厂不振的情势来看,也许营业额在短期内真的不会有突破,公司也只能靠降低成本来维持强势的盈利表现。以最近四个季度漂浮不定的盈利表现看来,我个人对公司能持续保持好的盈利表现始终有点怀疑。

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KYY Investing Guide lines - Koon Yew Yin

Author: Koon Yew Yin   |   Publish date: Tue, 29 Nov 2016, 08:47 PM 


Since my retirement as a founder director of IJM Corporation Bhd about 30 years ago, I have been investing in our local and Hong Kong stock markets. I also have read books to learn the methods practiced by legionary experts such as Peter Lynch, Benjamin Graham and many others.  

At the beginning I made some mistakes and I learned from my own mistakes to improve my skill.
Now I am able to write down some simply guide lines to help investors make more money. You do not need a higher tertiary education to make money.

1 KYY golden rule for stock selection:  Before you buy any share, you must make sure that the company can make more profit in the current year than last year by looking at its profit for the last 2 quarters and the projected P/E ratio is less than 10. If it has very good profit growth prospect, you may buy it at higher P/E ratio.

2 Up and down trend charts:  You don’t have to be an expert in chart. All you need to know is what is up trend and down trend. Never buy down trending stocks even if they are selling below NTA because you don’t know when the price will go higher than your purchase price for you to sell to make money. For example some of the property companies are selling below their NTA. As you know there is an oversupply of properties in every town and city in Malaysia. If you buy property shares, you have to wait a few years before the property market turns around.  

3 Buy up trending stocks provided they have good profit growth prospect and selling at low P/E ratio. The advantage is that after your purchase, you can see the price continues to go up. But you must remember that no share can continue to go up for whatever reason. You must sell to take profit.

4 Cut loss will limit your losses: After you have bought a share and the price did not go up as you expected, you must cut loss when the price drops more than 10% of your purchase price.

5 Control your emotion of fear, greed, ego and over confidence to think logically is the key for successful investing. Most people cannot control their emotion to think logically. If everyone can think logically, all the shares would be fully valued and there would not be any underpriced share for sale. That is not the case. If you can control your emotion you would know when to buy and when to sell to make money.

6 You must develop some business sense. Quite often you can see share prices of really good companies remain flat or keep dropping for no reasons. If have some business sense, you dare to buy.  But if you do not understand business, you would miss the chance to make money.

7 To maximize profit, you must have patience. Every day you can see how share prices fluctuate. The day’s high and low can be quite a wide difference. If you have patience, you can buy at the lowest price or sell at the highest price of the day.

8 You must own a maximum of 8 stocks so that you can keep track of the companies’ progress. All businesses have different challenges and obstacles at different time to overcome. If you can keep track of them, you know when to buy or sell to make more profit. 

9 You should use margin loan to increase your profit provided you really know all the above guide lines. The current interest rate is 4.8% pa. You can easily make more than the interest rate to increase your profit.

10 Share investing is not an easy venture. If you cannot afford to lose, don’t try. There are more losers than winners in the stock market. If you have not been successful after a few years, you must stop. Otherwise you and your family will suffer.

Dutch Lady Milk Industries - Turning More Cautious

Author: kiasutrader   |   Publish date: Wed, 30 Nov 2016, 10:00 AM 


9M16 net profit of RM111.3m was within expectation (71%). FY16 DPS of RM2.20 (vs FY15:RM2.20) was slightly below expectation due to the lower-than-expected payout ratio. No changes made to our earnings forecasts. Milk powder prices have continued to rise, in line with the recovery in global commodity market and thus we are turning more cautious on the outlook. TP trimmed to RM58.42 on more conservative valuation but maintain Market Perform.
Result within expectation. 9M16 net profit of RM111.3m (-3.9% YoY) is within our expectation by accounting for 71% of our full-year forecast. Consensus comparison is unavailable as the stock is not widely tracked. As expected, DPS of RM1.10 was declared, lifting FY16 DPS to RM2.20 (FY15: RM2.20) which is slightly below our expectation (RM2.40) due to the lower payout ratio.
YoY, 9M16 revenue grew 6.2% to RM776.1m partially driven by introduction of new products in 3Q16. 9M16 gross profit grew 8.9% to RM334.2m as gross margin expanded by 1.1 ppt on the back of relatively more favorable raw material price. However, 9M16 net profit fell 3.9% to RM111.3m, dragged down by higher distribution expenses (+11.1%) and other operating expenses (+38.9%) arising from brand- building investment and system upgrade.
QoQ, 3Q16 revenue jumped 13.3% to RM279.6m thanks to the launch of the newly improved formula for Friso powdered milk for children and the introduction of the RTD (Ready to Drink) UHT 125 ml milk with new Disney Marvel and Frozen character packaging. 2Q16 gross profit grew by 11.0% to RM118.7m as gross margin narrowed by 0.9ppt which we think is attributable to higher raw material costs. As a result, 3Q16 net profit grew 10.8% to RM40.7m.
Turning more cautious. Looking forward, we think that the sustainability of earnings growth still hinges on the price movement of milk powder. Milk powder prices have continued to rise with skimmed milk powder with whole milk powder prices soaring 35.6% and 54.9% YTD respectively, which is in line with the recovery in global commodity prices. Thus, we are turning more cautious on the prospect of the company. However, we believe DLADY might still be able to protect its earnings by toning down its brand-building investment if the raw material cost overly inflates.
Forecast maintained. No changes made to our FY16E-FY17E earnings.
Maintain MARKET PERFORM with lower Target Price of RM58.42 (from RM62.36). In view of the more challenging outlook, we trimmed our TP down to RM58.42 by pegging a lower PER of 22.3x to FY17E EPS. The more conservative valuation implied 3-year mean PER as opposed to +0.5 SD over 3-year mean previously.
Source: Kenanga Research - 30 Nov 2016

[转贴] 冷眼推荐股(十六):JTIASA - 阿Boon

Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Wed, 30 Nov 2016, 10:05 AM
Wednesday, November 30, 2016



JTIASA简介

业务
- 种植
- 伐木与木材贸易
- 锯木

JTIASA(常成控股,4383,工业产品股),成立于1960年,并于1969年10月30日上市大马交易所主板。

JTIASA的创办人为丹斯里张晓卿,涉足三个主要业务:
- 伐木与圆木(Log)贸易
- 棕油业务、
- 生产与经销锯木

该集团原本只是一家伐木与木材贸易公司,而且也是砂拉越最大的木商,拥有伐木特许经营权,可供砍伐的森林面积达到170万英亩。同时,该公司也重新造林(reforestation),以便能够有续经营伐木业。

JTIASA也是近年来才开始将业务多元化至油棕种植,而且积极扩展着一个业务,目前拥有6万9000公顷(约17万英亩)的油棕园,而且大部分的油棕树都已经到了7年的黄金收割期。(注:油棕树的常量高峰期介于7至16年)

冷眼前辈之所以看要JTIASA的理由,是因为该集团的木材资产占了所有资产的42%。假设将木材业务全部脱手,那么该集团的油棕园每英亩才不过7000令吉。

再加上JTIASA的股价从高峰时期的3令吉下跌到目前1令吉左右,因此下跌风险小。

以目前的情形来看的确如此,再加上当前棕油价格已经开始回升,相信在未来的两个季度,JTIASA的业绩有望持续走高。

http://bblifediary.blogspot.my/2016/11/jtiasa.html

LBS Bina - Sustainable sales

Author: kltrader   |   Publish date: Wed, 30 Nov 2016, 11:21 AM 


  • LBS’s 9M16 net earnings met ours and consensus expectations at 74% of full-year forecast.
  • The group sold a total of RM906m worth of properties in 9M16 (9M15: RM817m). Management remains confident that its full-year sales target of RM1.2bn will be met.
  • Total dividend declared year-to-date is 6 sen. We expect a total of 9.5 sen DPS to be dished out for FY16.
  • We maintain our EPS and TP. Stronger sales and rising profit are the key potential re-rating catalyst. Sales remain robust. The strong take-up is driven by its flagship township project Bandar Saujana Putra (BSP), and D’Island with combined total sales of RM846m. As of Nov-16, total sales achieved have reached 96% of our sales target of RM1.2bn.
Outperforming in spite of the tough market. The strong performance year-to-date reinforces our view that LBS will outperform its peers in terms of sales and earnings growth in the current tough environment. We also favour the group’s recent acquisition of 638-acres land in Dengkil with a potential GDV of more than RM2.0bn. We expect its maiden launch could take place as soon as next year. We expect this to be another flagship mass-market township development for the group after BSP in Jenjarom. Hence this should strengthen LBS’s sales visibility in the next few years.
A good proxy for a defensive stock. We maintain BUY with TP of RM2.01 derived from a blended valuation of PE and PBV of 15x and 1.0x respectively. Rising sales, improving earnings and attractive dividend yield of 5-6% in 2016-2017 are the reasons to own this stock.
To continue aggressively roll out projects. As of 28th Aug-16, a total of RM910m projects have been launched during the year with RM827m sales or 91% fully-taken up. This underlies the strong demand for its affordably-price houses in BSP. LBS has planned several launches totalling RM384m for the remainder of the year, hence total projects to be rolled out will come up to RM1.3bn against the group’s initial target sales of RM1.2bn. In addition, the group’s strong unbilled sales of RM1.46bn are sufficient to support group’s earnings at least for the next two years.
Fundamentals remain strong. As of 9M16, group’s unbilled sales and total remaining GDV continue to be solid at RM1.46bn and RM21bn respectively. Meanwhile, remaining undeveloped landbank stood at 2,520 acres with the bulk coming from Johor at 50% followed by Klang Valley at 23%, Perak at 19% with the remaining from Pahang and Sabah.
Source: BIMB Securities Research - 30 Nov 2016

Kimlun Corporation - Strong showing continues

Author: HLInvest   |   Publish date: Wed, 30 Nov 2016, 11:44 AM 


Results

  • Kimlun reported 3QFY16 results with revenue coming in at RM224.2m (-9% QoQ, -7% YoY) and earnings of RM16.5m (-32% QoQ, -16% YoY). Cumulative 9M earnings totalled RM57.7m, increasing +17% YoY.

Deviation

  • 9M earnings made up 84% of our full year forecast (77% of consensus) which is above expectations.
  • The stronger than expected results was attributed to the manufacturing division which enjoyed superior gross margins of 32% for the 9M period vs 24.8% last year. This was due to (i) stronger SGD against MYR and (ii) higher proportion of MRT deliveries last year which generally commands a lower margin.

Dividends

  • None declared.

Highlights

  • Orderbook remains healthy. Kimlun’s orderbook currently stands at RM2.1bn comprising RM1.8bn for construction and RM280m for manufacturing. Overall, this translates to a healthy cover ratio of 2x on FY15 revenue.
  • Bags MRT2 TLS contract. Kimlun announced that it has been awarded a RM52.8m contract to supply tunnel lining segments (TLS) for the MRT2. The contract is expected to last until Sept 2019, slightly less than 3 years from now. This contract win is within our expectations as Kimlun was also one of the two TLS suppliers for the MRT1. Earlier in March, Kimlun also won a RM200m contract to supply segmental box girders (SBG) for the MRT2.
  • Strong on job wins. YTD, Kimlun has managed to secure jobs in excess of RM1.3bn and is looking to add another RM200-300m for the remainder of the year. Looking ahead, potential job wins could stem from (i) the LRT3 where it has been prequalified for both the construction and precast roles, (ii) affordable housing under PR1MA and PP1AM in which it has already submitted some bids and (iii) the Central Spine Road. Kimlun has also successfully reduced its job flow dependency on Iskandar in view of the slowdown there..

Risks

  • Slowdown in Iskandar could hamper job flow prospects.

Forecasts

  • We raise FY16-18 earnings by 7%, 5% and 2% respectively as we impute higher margin assumptions for its manufacturing division.

Rating

  • Maintain BUY, TP: RM2.66
  • We like Kimlun as a prudently run construction outfit with commendable results delivery. Share price has fallen 8% from its peak this month, offering a good opportunity to accumulate.

Valuation

  • Following the earnings upgrade, our TP is raised from RM2.44 to RM2.66 based on an unchanged 11x P/E multiple (mean) applied to FY17 earnings.
Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 30 Nov 2016

【Tek Seng Holding Berhad】- 发生了什么事?-创二代

Author: GoldenEggs | Publish date: Wed, 30 Nov 2016, 11:50 AM

Tek Seng 这家公司一直是笔者很关注的公司,主要是公司成长惊人,加上股价不停地跌,让笔者可以说是越来越注意这家公司值不值得投资。之前公司上了新闻版面,主要是公司裁员200名员工,让许多speculator相信业绩是无法继续成长了。但是看来这次Speculator是对的。公司的股价从RM1.2滑落到RM0.7(-42%)。相当惊人,意味着风险降低?

公司的太阳能业务在中国倾销下,导致Sales volume drop, margin 估计也会受到影响,Solar 占了 TEKSENG 接近 一半的营业额,而这次的营业额表现主要也是受到了Solar子公司的盈利下滑所影响,值得注意的是营业额已经下滑,盈利也从7.5M跌落至36K。在种种不利因素下,笔者还是决定静观其变,原本以为低风险的投资,在营业额下跌下,笔者还是看看就好,股价下跌不等于执死鸡,因为在营业额大幅下跌地同时(比上个Quater下跌50%),公司未来的盈利令人担忧。

公司其他业务如Sheeting, PP non Woven, PVC leather的盈利增长也无法弥补Solar营业额下跌。说真的公司的quaterly report交代得很随便,让笔者觉得好像雾里看花。这篇也是为了让我记着这家公司,当业务有更好的发展时我会考虑投资的!

笔者过后十天可能会比较少发表文章,因为去旅游了。过后回来再和大家分享BURSA各式各样的公司和新闻。

笔者有在提供一项服务,就是把我对BURSA的公司的估值计算了,并从最便宜的方式往上排,过去我都是自己使用,目前我会在合适的价格下分享给有兴趣的读者。所介绍的公司的股价表现也有在我的Page中。如果没有兴趣,就直接ignore,不要把在股市亏钱的怒气发泄在无辜的笔者身上。有兴趣者可以去我的page看一看。谢谢.

令吉贬值 衝击业务 陈志远冀开放建赌场

2016年11月29日 | 记者:雷洁敏

(京都29日讯)成功集团创办人丹斯里陈志远表示,令吉贬值的確对其海外业务造成衝击,此外,其本地的星巴克业务,也受到影响。不过,他认为,川普效应导致的匯率市场波动局面,是短期的。

川普在11月8日的美国总统选举中意外胜出,金融市场也出现剧烈的震盪,加上美国升息的机率升高,资金撤出新兴市场,以及油价受到减產的不確定因素困扰等,导致令吉过去两週跌跌不休,週二触及4.465兑1美元。

陈志远旗下成功食品(BJFOOD,5196,主板贸服股)经营的星巴克,不少原料须从海外进口,令吉重贬导致其成本高企。

令吉跌势短暂

儘管如此,陈志远认为,令吉走贬只是短期的影响,而受影响的不只是令吉,也包括其他的区域货幣如印尼盾。他相信令吉走势会回升,因此,旗下业务成本走高的情况也能好转。

陈志远是在京都为四季酒店开幕时,接受媒体採访。

他指出,令吉在亚洲金融风暴时期,贬值的情况更严重,在政府採取固定匯率將令吉钉在3.80兑1美元之前,令吉曾一度重贬至4.80兑1美元。在撤销固定匯率制度后,令吉也逐渐走强至3令吉或3.10令吉兑1美元。

陈志远认为,人们不应该只看到不好的一面,其实令吉走贬,也可带动大马的出口,从而推动国家收入,促进经济。「因此不要太过负面,我相信匯率走势会回稳。」

陈志远透露,成功集团的海外业务佔营业额贡献约40%。

对於在越南开设网上博彩业务之后,是否有兴趣在日本开放赌博市场时,竞標当地的赌场业务,陈志远表示,日本准备开放赌场以刺激经济和旅游业,相信会吸引来自许多国际级的业者,成功集团要脱颖而出並不容易,所以,他会更专注的搞好越南的业务。

虽然越南的博彩公司目前只提供一项游戏,但未来计划增设10到12个游戏项目。每一年料增加4至5个游戏,2年便可增设10到12个游戏。

与此同时,越南政府打击非法赌博活动,將带动于越南的博彩业务。

成功集团早前通过竞標,获得越南博彩业18年的特许经营权。目前,成功集团在大马、越南和菲律宾拥有博彩业务,希望未来能够在海外多进行类似业务。

而他也希望大马政府能够终结过去55年的垄断,允许新业者开设第2家赌场。他更笑言自己仍年轻,还可以等待政府开放开设第2家赌场。

此外,陈志远也希望政府能够將赌球活动合法化。在2010年,成功集团几乎將赌球执照收入囊中,但最终因为反对声浪过大,財政部宣布收回执照。

他指出,大马赌球是不合法的地下赌博,但却是一个非常大的市场,若政府让赌球合法化,將可增加收入。

与此同时,令吉和消费税导致消费情绪疲软,在这趋势中,成功集团將通过节流,包括减少花红、节省员工成本等、以度过这艰难的时刻,但尽可能不裁员。

至於海外扩充,陈志远表示,若亚洲市场,比如越南及其他临近国家,有合適的投资机会也会考虑。

不过,目前会以管理债务为首要任务,维持良好的记录,银行就会继续支持成功集团。

半年营收增.安联金融次季赚1.32亿

2016-11-29 17:23

(吉隆坡29日讯)国家银行降息导致利息赚幅小挫,非利息收入下跌,安联金融(AFG,2488,主板金融组)截至2016年9月30日第二季净利稍降1.55%,至1亿3257万9000令吉,不过受半年营收增加带动,首6个月净利增长3.3%至2亿6505万3000令吉。

半年净利增3.3%
派息8.5仙

该公司首半年营业额增长1.9%,至7亿2353万1000令吉,惟次季营业额却小跌1.7%,至3亿5971万7000令吉。

该公司董事部建议派发每股8.5仙中期股息,除权和享有日分别是2016年12月14日和16日。

安联金融半年的净利息收入,包括回银业务,成长3.6%,至5亿5420万令吉。半年的非利息收费收入增长,其中客户收费收入大增14.8%,至1亿5460万令吉。

不过,因外汇因素,导致次季的财务非利息收入下跌16%。

该公司半年的贷款成长亮眼,按年成长13.8%,其中中小企业贷款强劲成长14%。

呆账偏低
仅0.9%

该公司的呆账率偏低于0.9%,低于业界平均的1.6%,其中中小企业贷款呆账率只有0.8%。贷款亏损覆盖率,包括管制储备,比较前期的92.7%显著增加至147%。

安联金融在业绩文告中表示,银行的资本维持稳健,一级资本为12.2%;在赎回6亿令吉次级票据后,集团总资本比例为16.8%,比较前期为13.6%。

利息赚幅企稳于2.22%

按季而言,该银行的净利息赚幅企稳在2.22%水平。比较前期稍降4基点,主要是国家银行在7月降息所致。

贷款和存款及总来往和个人储蓄比例维持强劲,分别为84.6%和32.9%。

安联金融首席执行员乔尔科恩赖希表示:“我们会继续维持和交出好的财务表现,因为我们的策略是专注在风险调整回酬、有效的风险管理措施和最大化资产负债表的混合多元。”

安联金融上半年的资本回酬为10.9%,每股净有形资产改善至3令吉27仙。

该公司半年的营运开支增加0.9%,至3亿3640万令吉,但成本收入比例企稳在46.5%,比业界平均低。

呆账拨款准备金为3620万令吉,常年率17.9个基点,在指南范围内。

安联金融的客户存款增长4.9%,比业界平均的1.3%表现亮眼。

探讨开拓新的客户群

展望未来,乔尔科恩赖希表示,公司着手整顿变身计划,探讨开拓新的客户群。“我们投资在所需的新科技以支持银行革新政策,短期会改善营运效率。”

安联金融也建立策略最大化各业务的连接,包括消费银行、中小企业、商业和企业、金融市场、投资银行和回教银行,推出全方面的服务和产品,提供客户所需。

董事部有信心,这些行动将让该银行的业务在2017年处于持续营收和具盈利能力的地位。

文章来源:星洲日报‧财经‧2016.11.29

联号贡献减.松下次季净利3078万

2016-11-30 09:16

(吉隆坡29日讯)联号盈利贡献减少以及营运成本提高,松下电器(PANAMY,3719,主板消费品组)截至2016年9月30日止第二季净利按年下挫23.60%至3078万3000令吉,拖累上半年净利按年下挫4.17%至6908万6000令吉。

尽管该公司获利下挫,但第二季营业额却按年上涨4.18%至2亿9241万8000令吉,推高上半年营业额上涨7.72%至5亿9020万7000令吉。

派息15仙

松下电器也宣布派发每股15仙股息,12月23日除权。

该公司在文告中指出,风扇与其他产品部门净利按年成长了36.8%,但在家具产品部门却按年下挫了21%。

管理层认为,全球以及国内经济依然挑战,这将影响大马经济表现。此外,中东区域不稳定也对公司出口造成了压力,该公司对中东区域出口占了营业额的20%。同时,劳工市场、通膨压力以及马币波动,也对公司盈利造成了压力。

为了应对上述挑战,该公司将会密切留意相关领域,以减少松下电器在全球业务冲击。

文章来源:星洲日报‧财经‧2016.11.30

CIMB Research upgrades Supermax to Add

Wednesday, 30 November 2016 | MYT 8:12 AM

Supermax to benefit from weak Ringgit

KUALA LUMPUR: CIMB Equities Research has upgraded Supermax Corporation to an Add as it turns optimistic about the glove maker’s prospects due to the favourable environment from the weak ringgit.

It had on Wednesday raised the target price to RM2.50 as it rolled over to CY18. However, it is still pegging Supermax to a conservative 12 times price-to-earnings (P/E), in line with its five-year historical mean.

“This is also a 48% discount to the glove sector’s current P/E, which is unjustified in our view. Key downside risk to earnings are the sharp strengthening of the ringgit and spike in raw material prices,” it said.

To recap, Supermax had a slow start to FY17. Both 1QFY17 revenue and net profit fell 13.2% on-year and 49.2% on-year to RM269mil and RM19.5mil.


Hence, earnings before interest (EBIT) margins also declined by 5.9 percentage points to 9.5%.

“We had anticipated a weaker 1QFY17 earlier given the less conducive environment as well as gradual ramp-up of the remaining capacity in the following quarters. Hence, we still deem the set of results within expectations at 16% of our and 14% of consensus estimates,” it said.

CIMB Research suspected that the weaker 1Q results were due to a convergence of factors. Firstly, the group’s average selling prices (ASPs) were likely hit by intense pricing competition. This is also likely to lead to difficulties in passing on operating cost increases such as gas (6% on-quarter) and minimum wage (11% on-quarter).

On the other hand, the group also incurred additional expenses from commercial activities of its contact lenses segment while there was a high base effect in 1QFY16 from a weaker ringgit and lower raw material prices.

“We believe that the group is looking to commission the remaining six lines from Plant 10 and 11. To recap, the water supply was insufficient to run the remaining six lines out of a total of 20 lines in Plant 10 and 11.

“We think that the group has likely commissioned an estimated one to three lines in 1QFY17 and is still working with authorities to secure sufficient water supply to run the remaining lines. This will increase the group’s output by another 300 million to 900 million pieces per annum, bringing total production capacity to 22.6 billion to 23.2 billion pieces per annum.

“As an export-orientated counter, Supermax is set to benefit from arbitrage opportunities, stemming from the recent appreciation of US$/RM rates. Note that US$/RM rates have appreciated by 8.5% since beginning 2QFY17. Hence, we opine that earnings in the short term will be boosted by currency gains.

“This should also aid in mitigating the impact of rising overall costs such as raw material prices, etc. Hence, we expect the group’s profitability to improve moving forward,” said CIMB Research.

Tuesday, November 29, 2016

Karex 1Q net profit drops 63.5% to RM8.14m on lower forex gain, higher expenses

By Syahirah Syed Jaafar / theedgemarkets.com | November 29, 2016 : 7:53 PM MYT

KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 29): Karex Bhd reported a 63.5% fall in net profit to RM8.14 million or 81 sen a share for the first quarter ended Sept 30, 2016 (1QFY17), from RM22.28 million or RM2.22 a year ago, due to lower foreign exchange gain.

The lower profit was also attributed to higher operating, administration and one-off corporate exercise expenses with the consolidation of newly acquired Pasante Healthcare Ltd.

Revenue rose 5.2% to RM80.04 million from RM76.09 million largely due to the consolidation of sales from Pasante.

The group proposed a final single tier tax exempt dividend of two sen per share for FY16, payable on Dec 16.

“We have also broadened our business and expanded into new business segments in the United Kingdom through Pasante,” the company said.

Chief executive officer Goh Miah Kiat said the company is looking forward to integrating its new business in the UK as well as its recent acquisition of the Trustex brand in the United States.

“These new acquisitions will see ample cross-selling opportunities in months to come. For our ONE brand, we are excited about the new launch of our custom-fit condoms as well as our new tie-up with a hypermarket chain of more than 5,000 stores across the US.

“In short, we are optimistic of our FY2017 performance,” said Goh

Karex shares closed unchanged at five sen each today, giving it a market capitalization of RM2.5 billion.

Supermax logs drop in 1Q net profit on higher wages, additional costs

By Sangeetha Amarthalingam / theedgemarkets.com | November 29, 2016 : 7:49 PM MYT

KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 29): Supermax Corp Bhd, the world's second largest rubber glove maker by volume, posted a net profit of RM19.54 million or 2.89 sen a share in the first financial quarter ended Sept 30, 2016 (1QFY17), on revenue of RM269 million.

In a filing with Bursa Malaysia today, Supermax said in 1QFY17, it recorded earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation and pre-tax profit margins of 13.9% and 9.8% respectively.

There is no comparison as the group changed its financial year-end from Dec 31 to June 30. However, looking at its performance for the three months ended Sept 30, 2015, Supermax posted a net profit of RM38.46 million or 5.65 sen a share on revenue of RM309.87 million.

"Profitability was impacted by external factors such as increased minimum wages and further rationalisation of natural gas subsidy. The group has also incurred additional costs for its contact lens division, particularly in terms of advertising and promotion expenses," said Supermax.

On prospects, Supermax said the global demand for both natural rubber and nitrile gloves remains strong with healthcare awareness continuing to rise, increasing regulation of the healthcare sector and ever higher healthcare spending in both the public and private sectors.

It said rubber latex prices are expected to trend higher correspondingly to the expected strengthening of the US dollar for the immediate to medium term. As at Nov 25, 2016, prices had risen to RM5.78 per kg/wet.

Supermax shares closed up two sen or 0.9% to RM2.23 today, for a market capitalisation of RM1.5 billion.

Dutch Lady's 3Q net profit falls 19%; pays RM1.10 dividend

By Yimie Yong / theedgemarkets.com | November 29, 2016 : 7:11 PM MYT

KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 29): Dutch Lady Milk Industries Bhd's net profit fell 19% year-on-year in its third quarter ended Sept 30, 2016 (3QFY16) as it spent more to support new launches to drive sales, which offset the revenue increase that it saw during the quarter.

Net profit came in at RM40.66 million or 63.5 sen per share, compared with RM49.95 million or 78.1 sen per share a year ago, as it penned in higher cost of sales and advertising and promotion investment to support new launches.

Revenue was up 9% at RM279.59 million compared with RM255.95 million, its bourse filing today showed.

It also declared a single-tier interim dividend of 50 sen per share and a single-tier special interim dividend of 60 sen per share for the financial year ending Dec 31, 2016 (FY16), payable on Dec 29.

For the cumulative nine months (9MFY16), Dutch Lady’s net profit dipped 4% to RM111.25 million or 173.8 sen per share from RM115.76 million or 180.9 sen per share a year ago, though revenue rose 6% to RM776.06 million from RM730.76 million.

Going forward, Dutch Lady said the overall domestic market is expected to remain weak with poor consumer confidence.

“Despite the ongoing challenges, the company had initiated continuous marketing campaigns leveraging on the strength of the Dutch Lady brand to protect and expand its market share with quality and nutritious product offerings,” Dutch Lady said.

Shares of Dutch Lady rose 10 sen or 0.2% to RM55.40 today, for a market capitalisation of RM3.55 billion. Year to date, the counter has risen 16%.

末季业绩恐更糟.陈唱摩多后年方露曙光


(吉隆坡29日讯)陈唱摩多(TCHONG,4405,主板消费品组)第三季低于预期,分析员预见,第四季业绩将被竞争、销售走疲及马币贬值压缩,未来获利面临挑战,仅有望在2018财政年转亏为盈。

2018财政年才有望转盈

丰隆研究预见,市场因主要竞争对手推出各种新车款而非常竞争,加上马币对美元走疲至2017年料导致进口成本走高,促使该公司销售及利润疲弱状况持续至第四季。

MIDF研究认为,该公司第三季业绩虽然因美元走疲而亏损收窄,但第四季表现却因马币走疲、同侪推出新车款及折扣优惠而变得更糟。

第三季马币兑美元平均率问4.01,但第四季平均率已增至4.05,目前美元现货为过去10年最强,走强至4.47。

马银行研究表示,第三季业绩虽然还蒙亏,但已按季改善,故减少2016/2017财政年核心亏损预测31至40%,看好2018财政年有望转亏为盈。

竞争加剧
马币疲弱抑制复苏

不过,马银行研究认为该公司还未走过低潮期,虽然高库存(18亿令吉)足以供应5至6个月的销售,无需在美元走强期间进口零件,但本地汽车销售惨淡及马币疲弱利空将继续抑制该公司复苏,若马币继续贬值,亏损将扩大至2017年第一季以后。

艾毕斯究研指出,为应对竞争者推出的新车款,该公司必须承担大量营销成本,尤其是今年初调涨日产汽车售价后,导致过去9个月面临高成本压力。

艾毕斯对该公司未来盈利展望谨慎,预见积极推广的营销开销将继续压缩利润,但仅微幅提振第四季汽车销售,因其他业者竞争加剧,将对该公司市占率形成挑战,因此下调2016财政年净利预测,从520万净利调降至5810万令吉净亏损,并预见无迅速复苏迹象。另外,为纳入利润低于预期状况,也下调2017财政年盈利预测69%。



文章来源:星洲日报‧财经‧报道:郭晓芳‧2016.11.29


http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1591765/%E6%9C%AB%E5%AD%A3%E4%B8%9A%E7%BB%A9%E6%81%90%E6%9B%B4%E7%B3%9F%EF%BC%8E%E9%99%88%E5%94%B1%E6%91%A9%E5%A4%9A%E5%90%8E%E5%B9%B4%E6%96%B9%E9%9C%B2%E6%9B%99%E5%85%89

末季盈利料增.联号亏损拖累.皇帽财测下调

Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Tue, 29 Nov 2016, 05:22 PM

2016-11-29 17:07

(吉隆坡29日讯)皇帽酿酒厂(CARLSBG,2836,主板消费品组)9个月业绩低于预期,分析员看好第四季盈利将因节庆因素按季走强,不过短期内依然面对斯里兰卡联号公司亏损拖累的风险,财测被下调。

马银行研究表示,虽然第三季销售比预期低,但受节庆因素推动,该集团第四季业绩有望按季走强,料开始出现一些农历新年前夕囤货活动,因明年农历新年较早,落在1月杪。

新加坡业务方面,马银行研究看好第四季清货活动将带来更佳利润,不过,纳入低销售及高营运开销,该行各下调2016、2017及2018财政年盈利预测4%、3%及3%。

2016年5月,旗下斯里兰卡联号公司Lion Brewery因水灾而停产至11月,直到11月23日恢复运作。

丰隆研究指出,截至目前为止Lion Brewery带来190万令吉亏损,预计全年将继续蒙亏,因该业务刚于本周投运,短期内料蒙亏。

去年同期,Lion Brewery带来1090万令吉获利。

情绪低迷料限制销量成长

本地业务方面,丰隆认为2016年市场状况持续面临挑战,该集团可能因节庆需求而取得良好表现,但本地情绪低迷料限制销量成长。

不过,肯纳格研究认为斯里兰卡联号公司带来的影响不大,因该业务仅贡献2015财政年7%盈利,并不影响现金营造。

纳入斯里兰卡联号公司低于预期表现,肯纳格研究下调2016/2017财政年盈利预测7%及3%。

艾芬黄氏因营业额成长及联号公司贡献走低,下调2016至2018财政年盈利预测1至8%。



文章来源:星洲日报‧财经‧报道:郭晓芳‧2016.11.29


http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1591767/%E6%9C%AB%E5%AD%A3%E7%9B%88%E5%88%A9%E6%96%99%E5%A2%9E%EF%BC%8E%E8%81%94%E5%8F%B7%E4%BA%8F%E6%8D%9F%E6%8B%96%E7%B4%AF%EF%BC%8E%E7%9A%87%E5%B8%BD%E8%B4%A2%E6%B5%8B%E4%B8%8B%E8%B0%83

[转贴] 时间价值 - 水星

Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Tue, 29 Nov 2016, 10:07 AM
Monday, November 28, 2016

朋友转发给自己的一个有意思的启示:

3+2+1 不是等于而是大于 1+2+3

一开始不明白,答案不都等于6吗? 经解释,才知道把“时间价值”涉及其中,从此角度就可看出两者的不同。

举例说明:

在Joey25岁那年,父母打算给一笔总数60万的金钱给他作投资之用,但怕年纪尚轻的他理财能力不够成熟,打算以25岁给10万,30岁给20万,35岁时再给他30万的方式分期把钱交到Joey手中。

而Joey则反说,真的要分期的话,可不可以25岁时给30万,30岁时给20万,35岁时给10万。

父母问有什么不同,Joey只说了一句:“因为十年后的30万不如今天的30万”

当然,应该没有很多人像Joey一样拥有如此慷慨的双亲,想带出的重点是:

3+2+1 = 1+2+3 是教科书里的数学
3+2+1 > 1+2+3 才是人间实用数学

“等有钱了才开始理财投资吧”是很多人的口头禅。

如果凡事皆等到有了一笔大钱后才来做,效力不比从小钱就开始努力的人好,即使最终两者都投入同样总额的钱,后者的复利作用会带来更大的效应,因为充分利用了时间的能力。
金钱会贬值,物价会上涨,同样的30万,自然就有不同的时间价值。

相比起钱要存得多,钱要存得早更重要。

Posted by 水星 at 3:35 PM

SKPRES - Things to Start Picking Up From Here

Author: sectoranalyst   |   Publish date: Tue, 29 Nov 2016, 10:32 AM 


Review

  • SKP Resources reported their 1HFY17 results, with net profit at RM41.0mn (+24.5% QoQ, +12.8% YoY). This was within ours, but below consensus estimates at 37.0% and 32.7% respectively. We expect earnings to pick up in the second half. No dividends were announced.
  • Top line grew faster than bottom line. Revenue increased 42.4% QoQ, on increased contributions from higher cordless vacuum cleaners and electronic consumer product (ECP) volumes. Costs, however, remained high as new foreign workers arrived only towards the end of the quarter. EBITDA margins decreased 1.5pp to 7.7%. We expect margins to normalise towards the second half, which should also be driven by the ramp up of its 2nd and 3rd ECP lines.

Impact

  • Leave our earnings estimates unchanged.

Outlook

  • Having solved its labour issues, new foreign workers have progressively arrived since September 2016 – reducing its dependence on high costs contract workers. As a result, we expect margins to normalise in the coming quarters.
  • Near term earnings driver will be the fulfilment of its ECP contract, valued at RM500mn/annum. Ahead of schedule, its third ECP line has been completed and is already up and running. This should contribute positively to results from the next quarter onwards.
  • With the installation of its 3rd line, we estimate that 35% of capacity at its new factory will be utilised. We remain positive on future prospects, due to the possibility that more contracts will be secured in the future. There are ample of opportunities, as its UK customer targets to roll out 100 new products over the next few years.

Valuation

  • Our TP for SKP Resources is maintained at RM1.75/share – based on a PE of 14x and CY17 EPS of 12.7sen. BUY. Driven by its new factory, we like the stock for its strong earnings growth potential with an estimated three year CAGR of 36.7% YoY. Expected yields are also attractive at between 3.4- 6.3%.
Source: TA Research - 29 Nov 2016

CARLSBG - Net Profit Increased Propelled by Efficiencies

Author: sectoranalyst   |   Publish date: Tue, 29 Nov 2016, 10:40 AM 


Review

  • Carlsberg reported its 9MFY16 net profit of RM157.9mn (+11.7% YoY). The results came within ours (71%) but below streets estimates (66%). No dividend was declared, similar to last corresponding period.
  • YoY, the group revenue grew marginally by 0.6% to RM1.2bn. This was driven by positive contribution from Singapore segment. The segment recorded a double-digit growth of 10.6% to RM424.6mn supported by 1) stronger sales volume as well as 2) higher contribution from subsidiary company Maybev. Meanwhile, Malaysia segment logged a slight contraction of 3.9% to RM820.3mn underpinned by loss of contribution from Luen Heng business. Note that, Luen Heng is a distributor and supplier of wines and spirit and the disinvestment was completed last August 2015.
  • For 9MFY16, the group’s operating profit expanded by 15.5% YoY to RM204.5mn owing to strong contribution from both segments. This was attributable to 1) effective costs control and positive products mix, 2) increased contribution from Maybev, and 3) strengthening of Singapore Dollar against MYR. Thus, the group’s EBIT margin lifted by 2.1p.p.

Impact

  • No changes to our earnings forecasts at this juncture.

Outlook

  • With the acquisition of Maybev in April 2014, the group has been witnessing increased contributions from its Singapore operations. We take comfort that such geographical diversification has allowed the group to offset the slow performance seen in its Malaysian operations and positively benefitted from weak Ringgit.

Valuation

  • We maintain our target price at RM15.52 based on DCF methodology (COE: 7.6%, g: 2.5%). However, we upgrade the stock from Sell to Hold since the sharp drop in its share price recently
Source: TA Research - 29 Nov 2016

[转贴] 冷眼推荐股(十四):JAKS - 阿Boon

Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Tue, 29 Nov 2016, 10:54 AM
Monday, November 28, 2016




业务
- 钢管生产
- 产业
- 建筑
- 水利发电(越南)


JAKS(JAKS资源,4723,主要板建筑),成立于1970年,于1990年1月18日上市大马交易所主板。

JAKS的前身为WINTEK,从事钢铁产品贸易。

2004年7月1日WINTEK被JAKS倒置收购,因此将上市地位转让给JAKS,然后易名JAKS。

JAKS的核心业务为供水和基础设施建设、生产与销售钢管以及钢铁相关产品,而近年来也将业务多元化至产业发展与发电领域。

由于该公司在建筑业务方面有多年的经验,因此进军产业领域显得驾轻就熟。JAKS的产业以综合住宅及商业发展项目为主。

除了产业领域,JAKS于2009年开始涉入发电业务,并且进军越南发电站计划。

2015年7月,JAKS宣布与CPECC(中国电力工程顾问集团)签署合作协议,以联营方式发展总值18.7亿美元的2座产能各600兆瓦的发电站,该工程预定在2020年完成。一旦完成,该发电站将会获得长达25年的特许经营权,将替JAKS带来经常收入。

JAKS目前营业额有七成依然来自建筑业,而该公司的水管业务则需要依赖政府所颁发的合约,预料未来该公司主要的盈利来源主要来自建筑和产业领域。


http://bblifediary.blogspot.my/2016/11/jaks.html

Mitrajaya Holdings - Continues to deliver

Author: HLInvest   |   Publish date: Tue, 29 Nov 2016, 11:35 AM 


    Results

    • Mitrajaya reported 3QFY16 results with revenue of RM251m (+2% QoQ, +9% YoY) and earnings of RM27m (-9% QoQ, +4% YoY).
    • Cumulative 9MFY16 earnings summed to RM75m, increasing 20% YoY.

    Deviation

    • 9M earnings made up 76% of our full year forecast which is within expectations. Against consensus, this made up 95% but we note that this is likely due to “stale” estimates that were not updated.

    Dividends

    • None declared. Usually in 4Q.

    Highlights

    • No surprises for construction. The construction division continues to deliver satisfactory performance with 9M revenue growing by +12% YoY on back of stable EBIT margins at 13% (9MFY15: 12.9%).
    • Decent job wins but more needed. Mitrajaya has managed to secure 4 contracts YTD totalling RM577m. This has already surpassed the full year sum for FY15 at RM469m. Its orderbook of RM1.4bn translates to a 1.8x cover ratio on FY15 construction revenue. In view of Mitrajaya’s much higher revenue base currently, we feel that more job wins may be needed to sustain its earnings growth momentum as witnessed in the past.
    • Property fares better. Overall 9M property revenue increased +13% YoY thanks to growth both domestically and in South Africa. During the same period, EBIT margin expanded from 25.3% to 29.4% due to contributions from Wangsa 9. The said development currently has unbilled sales of RM156m. Coupled with RM9m unbilled sales in South Africa, this would overall imply a healthy cover ratio of 1.7x on FY15 property revenue.

    Risks

    • Slower than expected orderbook replenishment.

    Forecasts

    • Our forecast is unchanged as the results were inline. Rating Maintain BUY, TP raised to RM1.95
    • Despite its earnings growing at a CAGR of 69% over the last 3 years, Mitrajaya continues to deliver commendable results. We continue to envisage growth, albeit at a slower pace now with CAGR of 11% given its significantly higher earnings base.

    Valuation

    • While there are no changes to our earnings estimate, we raise our SOP based TP from RM1.88 to RM1.95 as we roll over our valuation horizon from FY16 to mid-CY17. This implies FY16-17 P/E of 13.2x and 12x respectively.
    Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 29 Nov 2016

    MITRA - Expansion Remains On Course 29 Nov 2016

    Author: MalaccaSecurities   |   Publish date: Tue, 29 Nov 2016, 12:16 PM 


    Results Highlights

    • Mitrajaya’s 3Q2016 net profit gained 4.2% Y.o.Y to RM26.9 mln, mainly due to the improvements in both the construction and domestic property development segments, coupled with the lower depreciation charges. Revenue for the quarter added 11.9% Y.o.Y to RM251.4 mln. For 9M2016, cumulative net profit rose 20.3% Y.o.Y to RM75.0 mln. Revenue for the period increased 12.6% Y.o.Y to RM692.5 mln.
    • The reported earnings came in slightly above expectations as it accounts to 78.0% of our previous full year estimated net profit of RM95.9 mln. The reported revenue, however, came below our forecast, accounting to 71.2% of our full year estimated revenue of RM972.5 mln.
    • Segment wise, the construction segment’s 9M2016 pretax profit added 9.4% Y.o.Y to RM75.2 mln due to higher billings from works that are in the advanced stages, coupled with stronger outstanding orderbook. Its domestic property development segment’s pretax profit gained 19.3% Y.o.Y to RM5.5 mln, mainly due to recognition of its existing Wangsa 9 Residency project. The South Africa property segment’s pretax profit improved 10.1% Y.o.Y to RM9.7 mln on higher topline growth.
    • Meanwhile, the group continues to maintain a healthy balance sheet with a decent net gearing at 0.3x, implying room to increase its financial leverage for business expansion, if required.

    Prospects

    Although Mitrajaya did not secured any major construction contracts in 3Q2016, the group’s orderbook replenishment in 1H2016 already amounted to RM502.7 mln (see Appendix 1) or 83.8% or our targeted orderbook replenishment rate of RM600.0 mln for the year. We think that the target remains viable, premised to the acceleration of packages from various mega infrastructure projects that are expected to be awarded by end-2016.
    Meanwhile, the group’s outstanding construction orderbook of RM1.35 bln – implying a construction orderbook-to-revenue cover ratio of 1.8x against 2015’s construction revenue will sustain its earnings visibility over the next 2-3 years. We think Mitrajaya’s prospects remain robust moving into 2017 given that the group will be able to capitalise on the recent Budget 2017’s reiteration of key transportation and affordable housing projects.
    Over at the property development segment, Mitrajaya’s unbilled domestic property sales of RM156.0 mln, mainly from the Wangsa 9 Residency project, will provide earnings visibility over the next 2-3 years. We believe that the aforementioned project’s recognition will be ramped up in coming quarters, given that the construction progress is at the advanced stages of completion. On its South Africa property segment, the unbilled sales of Rand 29.0 mln (RM19.0 mln) will be recognised progressively until early-2017. We also note that the group has completed the divestment of Optimax Eye Specialist Centre Sdn Bhd (Optimax) for RM5.1 mln in 3Q2016.

    Valuation And Recommendation

    We raised our earnings forecast by 8.0% and 2.4% to RM103.6 mln and RM108.8 mln for 2016 and 2017 respectively after adjusting a lower effective tax rate at 25.0% (from 27.0%). Consequently, we maintain our BUY recommendation on Mitrajaya with a higher target price of RM1.90 (from RM1.85).
    Our target price is derived from ascribing an unchanged target PER of 11.0x to its 2017 (fully diluted) construction earnings, while the value of its property development units, both local and overseas, are valued at 0.8x (unchanged) their respective book values. At the target price of RM1.90, Mitrajaya will be trading at prospective PERs of 12.3x and 11.7x in 2016 and 2017 respectively, which is close to the construction industry averages of 11.0x-13.0x.
    Risks to our forecast and target price include inability to replenish its construction orderbook, particularly if there are delays in the implementation of upcoming government–sponsored projects such as the PR1MA, PPA1M and the new LRT route that could dent Mitrajaya’s construction orderbook replenishment prospects. Further tightening of credit facilities from financial services providers will continue to negatively affect the general property market and the sale of its properties.
    Source: Mplus Research - 29 Nov 2016

    AWC 3大业务推动来年业绩

    2016年11月28日

    (吉隆坡28日讯)AWC设施(AWC,7579,主板贸服股)预计旗下3大核心业务,即设施维修与保养业务、专营自动化垃圾回收系统(STREAMAWCS)的环境业务和工程业务將会在来年持续成长,推动业绩。

    而其中,设施维保业务在开始採取全新经营模式的医保设施业务、阿布扎比El-Raha海滩產业发展项目和政府关联合约支撑下,有望在未来成为该公司关键的成长推动力。

    首季业绩大增3.3倍

    同时,AWC设施今日公布2017財政年第1季(截至9月30日)业绩,其净利按年暴涨418万令吉或333.65%,至544万令吉,去年同期为125万令吉。该公司当季营业额为6712万令吉,相比去年同期的3781万令吉,按年大起2931万令吉或77.52%。

    AWC设施董事经理兼首席执行员拿督阿末卡比尔今日在股东大会后向记者表示,公司旗下的设施维保业务目前手持价值9亿令吉的合约,其中6亿令吉为政府设施的相关特许合约,为期10年。

    对此,AWC设施首席財务员T兰迪齐迪补充道,现时该公司所持有的合约总值12亿令吉,包括未来大马最高大厦--吉隆坡118大楼的自动化垃圾回收系统和水管安装合约。

    认列6亿合约

    「除去政府相关合约,明年公司认列的合约价值5亿5000万令吉至6亿令吉,为期1到2年。」

    此外,阿末卡比尔透露,AWC设施已经在新加坡获得一家医院颁发综合设施维保、环境和工程业务的3合1配套合约,价值在200万至300万新元,未来可能会把该经营模式扩展到主要市场,即大马和其他区域。

    「虽然这份合约的金额不高,但考虑到市场上有数以百计的医院,综合起来,这项业务將会拥有极大的潜能。」

    对於阿布扎比El-Raha海滩项目相关合约,T兰迪齐迪表示,该项目所佔空地达600公顷,范围內所有未来產业与设施的维保工程將会由AWC设施承包。

    「此项目有潜力在未来10年內,为AWC设施带来1亿5000万令吉至2亿令吉的营业额。」

    至於此前遭政府展延的吉隆坡南湖镇综合交通总站维保合约,T兰迪齐迪称,该公司正不断与政府进行沟通,以儘早知道相关合约正式生效的日期。据了解,相关合约为期5年,期间可为AWC设施带来1亿3000万令吉的营业额。

    另外,T兰迪齐迪指出,AWC设施已在过去和今年获得3家机场,即新加坡樟宜国际机场、香港国际机场和台湾桃园国际机场的飞机餐饮运输系统相关合约,总值超过2500万令吉,未来该公司將会和更多机场商谈相关事宜,並为公司带来更多收入。

    首季净利下跌 巴迪尼股价应声挫

    2016年11月28日

    (吉隆坡28日讯)由于传统淡季加上更高的营运开销,拖低巴迪尼控股(PADINI,7052,主板消费股)2017財政年首季(截至9月30日止)净利,其股价周一应声下跌,更成为全场第8大下跌股。

    该股今日一度跌25仙或8.87%,触及2.57令吉,最终收窄跌幅,全天下滑16仙或5.67%,以2.66令吉掛收,成交量为444万0200股。

    该公司在上周五(25日)公布首季业绩,净利按年下跌10.10%,至2862万令吉;营业额则为3亿1003万令吉,按年提升15.01%。

    巴迪尼控股首季净利普遍符合市场预测。当中马银行投行分析员表示,该公司首季是传统淡季,虽然净利只达他及市场全年净利预测的19%,但已算是符合预期。

    MIDF研究分析员则认为,华人农历新年落在其2017財政年第3季,这个旺季將会有更好的销售表现。而达证券分析员也预期,巴迪尼控股在下半年的表现会更好,因为2家巴迪尼概念专卖店(Padini Concept Store)及5家Brands Outlet分行將投入营运。

    马银行投行分析员指出,该公司首季营业额走高,是由14家新分店的销售推高,有5家为巴迪尼概念专卖店及8家Brands Outlet分行。

    弱令吉压缩赚幅

    不过,该公司赚幅却受到营销及库存成本提高拖累。首季销售及营销成本按年增加11%,至7700万令吉。

    此外,安联星展研究分析员指出,疲软的令吉也侵蚀其毛赚幅,因为该公司有70%產品来自中国,其余30%產品则是以美元计价,令吉疲软导致公司的库存成本不断走高,压缩赚幅。

    与此同时,肯纳格研究分析员也担忧持续疲软的消费者情绪及激烈的竞爭环境,因此,谨慎看待巴迪尼控股接下来的表现。

    他把2017及2018財政年净利预测,分別调低9%及7.6%。

    惟大部份分析员仍看好巴迪尼控股接下来的销售表现。

    马银行投行分析员认为,次季的表现会受到圣诞节带动,而第3季则有农历新年销售支撑。

    估值而言,安联星展研究分析员表示,由於该公司股价自2015年8月以来,已走高超过1倍,加上赚幅收窄的风险,所以相信目前股价已反映其近期增长前景。

    因此,他將投资评级从「买进」,调低至「守住」,及维持2.95令吉目標价。

    皇帽第三季净利4361万.派息5仙

    2016-11-29 09:04

    由于旗下斯里兰卡联号公司遭受水灾侵袭使销售蒙受损失及资产减值、及脱售联兴食品有限公司股权后的影响,皇帽酿酒厂截至2016年9月30日为止,第三季净利下跌30.21%至4360万9000令吉。

    (吉隆坡28日讯)由于旗下斯里兰卡联号公司遭受水灾侵袭使销售蒙受损失及资产减值、及脱售联兴食品有限公司股权后的影响,皇帽酿酒厂(CARLSBG,2836,主板消费品组)截至2016年9月30日为止,第三季净利下跌30.21%至4360万9000令吉。

    9个月净利1.579亿

    首9个月净利为1亿5791万令吉,增加11.65%。

    第三季营业额为3亿9330万5000令吉,下跌3.04%;首9个月的营业额为12亿4485万1000令吉,微增0.60%。

    该公司建议派发每股5仙的股息。

    该公司文告指出,第三季净利下跌,主要是旗下斯里兰卡联号公司──Lion酿酒厂(钖兰)有限公司,于今年5月遭受水灾的侵袭而使销售蒙受损失及资产减值、及2015年8月脱售联兴食品有限公司等事件所致。

    随着脱售联兴食品有限公司的股权后,使第三季的营业额扯平,自今年3月增加税率后,使市场疲弱及大马强劲啤酒的销售额走低。第三季营运盈利下跌21.7%至6120万令吉,因较高的商业开销,特别是大马及新加坡市场为2016年欧洲杯足球赛事的赞助所致。

    大马皇帽酿酒厂董事经理拉斯雷曼在文告指出,受到斯里兰卡水灾的负面冲击,25%股权的联号公司自5月开始关闭,直至今年11月23日才恢复生产。

    拉斯雷曼指出,虽然第三季业绩表现走低,惟首9个月的净利增加11.7%、营运盈利增长15%至2亿零850万令吉。公司营运活动营造的净现金改善1亿零50万令吉,因营运资本更好的管理所致,特别是交出成本效率及高档品牌产品成长的推动。

    CIMB Research retains Add for AWC, target price RM1.29

    Tuesday, 29 November 2016 | MYT 8:33 AM

    KUALA LUMPUR: CIMB Equities Research is maintaining its Add call for AWC Bhd with an unchanged sum-of-parts based target price of RM1.29 after its strong financial performance.

    AWC’s revenue for the first quarter ended Sept 30, 2016 (Q1, FY17) rose 67% on-year driven by across-the-board improvements (engineering +212%, environment +82%, and facilities +31%).

    AWC’s three main core activities are integrated facilities management (IFM); environment (solid waste management) and engineering services (plumbing and rainwater harvesting).

    The research house said the strong revenue was due to AWC recognition of the full impact of the concession rate increase, STREAM progress billings and consolidation of QDT’s acquisition.

    “Pretax margins at environment outperformed on a RM1.8mil writeback for provision of doubtful debts in STREAM, mitigated by weak facilities margins due to certain cost recognitions not imputed in the previous financial year, which are one-off.

    “Net cash/share strengthened on-quarter from 17 sen to 26 sen. No interim DPS was declared, as expected, but final DPS for FY16 of 1 sen will trade ex-dividend on Dec 14 2016 and paid on Jan 10, 2017,” it said.

    CIMB Research pointed out AWC has an estimated outstanding orderbook of RM500mil up till FY18, comprising facilities (RM260mil), 2) STREAM (RM110mil), 3) M&E/HVAC (RM60mil), and 4) plumbing (RM80mil).

    “We believe that contract wins in STREAM and Plumbing, given their high margins, could be re-rating catalysts, as they would sustain earnings visibility in FY17-18F.

    “Given the slew of high-rise office buildings coming up in the Klang Valley, we believe that private sector facilities maintenance contracts are also in the pipeline,” it said.

    The research house also said STREAM’s outstanding orderbook stood at RM110mil in October 2016. In FY16, STREAM’s revenue split was about 50% from Malaysia and the balance shared equally between the Middle East and Singapore.

    “We gather that Al Raha has about 50 projects in the pipeline, with about 40% to be possibly awarded in the next one year. At an average of RM2mil per project, Al Raha could potentially secure up to RM40mil in new orders. Our forecasts are based on new contract wins for STREAM at RM25mil to RM30mil per year,” it said.

    AWC, it said, is still under-owned at only 2% institutional shareholding. Potential catalysts are high profile contract wins and special dividends.

    Karex expects revenue contribution from Europe to double in FY17

    By Chester Tay / theedgemarkets.com | November 28, 2016 : 3:45 PM MYT

    KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 28): World biggest condom maker Karex Bhd expects revenue contribution from the Europe market to double in its financial year ending June 30, 2017 (FY17), thanks to its newly-acquired UK subsidiary, Pasante Healthcare Ltd.

    Its chief executive officer Goh Miah Kiat said the slowdown in Europe will also help boost Karex's sales, as consumers there are more likely to opt for affordable products.

    "We completed the (Pasente) acquisition in July 1 this year, so its sales were not consolidated into our FY16 account," he told a press conference, after the group's annual general meeting today.

    "With Brexit and the financial crisis in the European region, more people will lose their jobs and consumption will skew towards more affordable products — that is an opportunity for players like us to tap into the market there, because in the past, [the] European market was predominantly occupied by major brands," said Goh.

    In FY16, the Europe market contributed 10% of Karex's total revenue, said Goh, adding that this figure could "easily" double in FY17.

    As at 3.21 p.m., Karex shares were down 2 sen or 0.78% at RM2.54, with 58,300 shares traded. Its market capitalisation stood at RM2.54 billion.

    Monday, November 28, 2016

    Uchi Tech - 3Q16 earnings surge

    Author: kltrader   |   Publish date: Mon, 28 Nov 2016, 04:56 PM 


    3Q16 earnings surge

    Uchi’s 9M16 core net profit grew 12% yoy to RM44m, above expectations and accounting for 81-82% of our and the consensus full-year estimates. Sales in US$ terms remained weak, down 1.1% yoy. Nevertheless with the recent weakness of the RM, currency translation gains in the subsequent quarters could be strong. Maintain Hold but with a higher TP of RM1.81.

    9M16 core earnings up 12% yoy, above expectations

    Uchi’s 9M16 core net profit of RM44m (+12% yoy) was above expectations, accounting for 82% and 81% of our and the consensus 2016 estimates respectively. The better-than-expected result was due to a combination of stronger revenue growth and higher-than-expected margins. 9M16 EBITDA margin came in at 51% vs. our forecast of 49.5%, while revenue grew 9.3% yoy although this was only due to the weak RM. Sales in US$ terms remained weak, shrinking 1.1% yoy due to soft demand for high-end automated coffee machines. Uchi’s customers’ key markets are also in the Euro region where macro conditions remain frail.

    3Q16 earnings jump 28% qoq

    Sequentially, 3Q16 revenue and core net profit expanded 16% and 28% respectively. The higher revenue was aided by the improvement in sales during the quarter and also margin expansion. 3Q16 EBITDA margin improved 3.9ppts qoq due to better operating leverage but also the low base in 2Q16.

    Maintain Hold, TP raised to RM1.81

    We raise our margin assumption and lift our 2016-18 EPS forecasts by 5- 8% At an unchanged PE of 14x on 2017E EPS, the target price is raised to RM1.81. Maintain Hold for 2016-18E dividend yields of 6%. Downside risks include a high dependency on a few customers, weaker-than-expected demand and a sharp depreciation of the US$ vis-à-vis the RM. Upside earnings risks include further weakness in the RM vis-à-vis the US$ which will positively benefit Uchi
    Source: Affin Hwang Research - 28 Nov 2016

    Stress-free investing kcchongnz

    Author: kcchongnz | Publish date: Mon, 28 Nov 2016, 05:01 PM

    It is saddening to read and hear about people who treat the stock market as a “game” give in to unbearable stress and commit suicide due to heavy losses “playing” in the stock market.

    How did they get themselves into such situation?

    One probable way I can think of is they get greedy by using margin finance in the hope of getting exaggerating return by using other people’s money. But when the market or their stocks tanked, which they often do, they faced, instead of exaggerated gain, amplified losses which wipe out all their capitals, plus still owing the banks, or Ah Long huge sum of money.

    Many of those who lost huge amount of money speculate on rumours, hot tips, hypes and fads. The share prices of these stocks move up and down hugely every day, often manipulated by big boys, insiders and syndicates. Speculators of these stocks must “monitor” their stock prices every day, every hour, and every minute, whether to cut loss or average down, while they are working during a normal day. The outcome is quite certain as shown in this link below, all of them eventually lost huge amount of money. How not to be stressful speculating like that?

    http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/104168.jsp

    Even investing in a seemingly reasonably good company can be very stressful as you could lose a lot of money chasing it when it is already jacked up sky high, and you have no idea how to assess it but merely following hot tips from hot hands. If you have bought Focus Lumber at its height at RM3.09 on 12th January 2016, you would have lost more than 50% in just 8 months later, wiping out all your capital if you are with a margin of 50%.

    http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/102572.jsp

    Even investing in Gadang, which so many investors and investment bankers are super bullish of, with the push by the company with all those freebies at its height of RM3.30 can cause you plenty of stress if you are on heavy margin finance, and sailang all your money in it when it was heavily touted as a sure win bet.

    What if you speculate in Genetic following the “golden rule” speculating on its just one quarter good results without understand the details and use that to extrapolate future performance, or XingQuan with highly suspicious accounting practice, and some other hot tips? I have no eye see. One could lose 60%, or 70% within just a few months.

    Why should one want to get himself into such a stressful situation in investing? Doesn’t he have a better choice of investing in a stress-free manner as that of Walter Schloss, Warren Buffett, or Joel Greenblatt?



    Walter Schloss

    Schloss was a high school graduate and had worked under Benjamin Graham. If I were to use golf to describe Schloss, he would be the “nearest to pin” in Graham’s investing philosophy

    We can sum up Schloss investment philosophy in one sentence: “He buys cheap stocks”. That was precisely the cigar butt investment approach of his mentor, Benjamin Graham. He liked to look at the balance sheet more than income statement because,

    “I try to establish the value of the company. Remember that a share of stock represents a part of a business and is not just a piece of paper. … Price is the most important factor to use in relation to value…. I believe stocks should be evaluated based on intrinsic worth, NOT on whether they are under or over priced in relationship with each other…. The key to the purchase of an undervalued stock is its price compared to its intrinsic worth.”

    Schloss practised adequate diversification. He repeatedly said “I don’t like losing money”. So, he needed to take a diversified approach so he could “sleep well”. He often owned 60 stocks or more at a time, sometimes as many as 100.

    “I like the idea of owning a number of stocks. Warren Buffet is happy owning a few stocks, and he is right if he is Warren….”



    Schloss invest with a long-term view. He did not expect his investment strategy yielding results in a short time. He often owned his stocks for an average of 4 years. Obviously, he doesn’t look at stock price movement every day, every hour, and every minute, and thus get stressful.

    “Don’t buy on tips or for a quick move.”

    Schloss rarely talked to management, choosing to invest only on the numbers. He spent very little time on thinking about the economy, or the quarterly performance of a company, unlike the analysts nowadays, and their followers, chasing every quarterly result and make moves all the time, and hence get very stressful. He simply felt that if he could get a good price backed by as much quality tangible assets as possible, the upside can take care of itself.

    “I don’t like stress and prefer to avoid it, I never focus too much on market news and economic data. They always worry investors!”

    Many here may say his way of investing is no use using historical records, that he must know the management, read and must be well versed in industrial and economic news and get the up-to-date information of whatever the companies he invested in etc. But he didn’t because he just wanted to invest in a stress-free manner.

    But do you know how well he had done for himself and his investors in that stress-free manner?

    He is one of the most influential investors based on his 5 decades long performance from 1955, returning 20% per year, almost three times the 7% return of the S&P during the same period. If you placed $1000 investment with Scholss in 1955 for 50 years, your $1000 turned into $9.1m, 300 times more than the just $30000 from the return of the broad market!

    There has been hardly anyone who can break his long-term track record.

    Schloss is also a very happy man too, because for him, wealth with no health, no true friendship, no family love, no principles, means nothing to Walter Schloss.



    Warren Buffett

    Warren Buffett requires little introduction. He is the most successful investor in the world. Buffett is the chairman, CEOand largest shareholder of Berkshire Hathaway, and is consistently ranked among the world's wealthiest people with a net worth of USD62 billion.

    Buffett is noted for his adherence to value investing, and a notable philanthropist.

    That $1,000 invested in 1964, when Buffett took over the company and shares cost just $19, would be worth about $11.5 million dollars today. This is equivalent to a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 20% for a long period of 51 years.

    Buffett loves investing. He used to say he taps dancing to work every day. What stress? He doesn’t look at stock prices every day like most of us do because his investing horizon is long-term. This is the implication in this paraphrase of his famous quote:

    “No matter how great the talent or efforts, some things just take time. You can't produce a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant.”

    Buffett, unlike Schloss who just buy cheap stocks, takes value investing to another level. He likes to pay a little bit more for a great business producing great earnings potential, and more focus on his investment, rather than too broad a diversification.

    This is a good advice from Warren Buffett for investors regarding the greed in the stock market:

    “I've seen more people fail because of liquor and leverage—leverage being borrowed money. You really don't need leverage in this world much. If you're smart, you're going to make a lot of money without borrowing.”

    Hence if you follow Buffett’s way of investing, investing in good companies for long-term, rather than chasing each quarterly result, you are likely to produce good outcome in the future, and without any stress.



    Joel Greenblatt

    Joel’s investing principle amalgamates both the philosophies of Buffett and Schloss. He invests in good companies at cheap prices.

    I have mentioned about Joel Greenblatt in my investment articles in i3investor a lot because my investing principle is mainly based on his Magic Formula Investing. Here is one of the articles.

    http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/51631.jsp

    Joel Greenblatt is an American academic, hedge fund manager, investor, and writer. He is a value investor, and adjunct professor at the Columbia University Graduate School of Business.

    In 1985, Greenblatt started a hedge fund, Gotham Capital, with $7 million. Through his firm Gotham Capital, Greenblatt presided over an impressive CAGR of 30% from 1985 to 2006. The $7 million capital turned into $1.7 billion 21 years later.

    Joel focus on buying good companies at cheap price. Good companies again mean companies with high return on invested capital, ROIC and not earnings growth, and cheapness measured by earnings yields, and not the simplistic PE ratio.

    This is Joel’s thoughts about stock price and value:

    “I just want to take advantage of prices away from value. If you do good valuation work and you are right, Mr. Market will pay you back. In the short term, one to two years, the market is inefficient. But in the long-term, the market has to get it right—it will pay you back in two to three years. Keep that in mind when you do your analysis. You don’t have to look at the next quarter, the next six months, if you do good valuation work—Mr. Market will pay you.”

    “Buying good businesses at bargain prices is the secret to making lots of money.”

    I particle like what Joel says here:

    “Look down, not up, when making your initial investment decision. If you don’t lose money, most of the remaining alternatives are good ones.”

    On leverage in investing, Joel said:

    “If you are going to be a very concentrated investor, you should not use leverage. You can’t leverage because you need to live through the downturns and that is incredibly important.”

    Joel also warned investors about stock tips and advice from people purportedly want to make you rich.

    “The odds of anyone calling you on the phone with good investment advice are about the same as winning the Lotto without buying a ticket.”

    So, how can investing be stressful if we follow Joel’s way of investing judiciously?



    Conclusions

    Investing should be treated as an enjoyment, and at the same time build up long-term wealth. The way to do investing in a stress-free manner is to follow some of these real super investors:
    1. Buy companies at very cheap price like Schloss did
    2. Buy great companies at reasonable price like Buffett does
    3. Buy good companies at cheap price like Greenblatt does
    4. Carry out assessment of the value of the company you invest in
    5. Diversify
    6. Invest for long term, not focussing too much on the next quarter or the next six months
    7. Don’t follow rumours, hot tips, hypes and fads
    8. Don’t use money you can’t afford to lose, especially margin financing
    9. Take care of the downside, and let the upside takes care of itself
    10. Don’t bother to look at your computer screen all the time

    Happy investing



    K C Chong