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Friday, September 30, 2016

逃跑計劃 - 夜空中最亮的星

我祈禱擁有一顆透明的心靈 . 和會流淚的眼睛




湯文亮﹕耶倫不加息是錯誤決定

湯文亮﹕耶倫不加息是錯誤決定
文章日期:2016年9月30日

【明報專訊】美國聯儲局議息是世界上最大的黑箱作業,沒有人知道他們以什麼理由加息,什麼理有不加息,但我覺得,由伯南克至耶倫,在過去8年,都會給予全世界一個信息,就是在議息前話有機會加息,議息後就求其搵一個理由話點解唔加息。

其實,聯儲局是否加息的理由只有一個,就是在乎有沒有國家或者基金買美國債券,如果有,莫講話加息,就算負利率都會出現,除了這個理由之外,其他如失業率、美國大選,以及各種我不懂得的數據,全部都是枝枝葉葉,當然是不能夠太過離譜,當有人大幅減持美國債券,美聯儲局就會決定加息。

上星期美聯儲局議息後決定不加息,雖然耶倫在公報不加息後半小時再發公布,表示如果沒有特別壞的情况出現,聯儲局今年最少加一次息,我覺得耶倫這個公布其實是補鑊,加息是在所必行,而且要愈快愈好,大家可能會不明白,已經有著名分析員話明年都毋須要加息,但點解我話愈快愈好。

在7月初,前獅子山學會會長王弼同我輸賭,佢話7月底加息,我話唔會,為了公平起見,一定要在美國總統大選後才會加息,當時,我唔知道王弼以什麼理據話7月底會加息,如果我知道,我就唔會同佢賭,我估計,王弼已經有渠道知道世界上有很多國家包括中國、日本、沙特阿垃伯等國家開始減持美國債券,當時只不過是開始,現在已經連續3個月,減持的數量相當大,如果唔立刻加息穩定美元,要等美國總統大選後才加息,即是要多等兩三個月,到12月加息時必定要快要急,並且會出現連續性。

12月加息時 必定要快要急

所以,我才作出美聯儲局在9月有機會加息的預測,雖然我被人笑,其實,耶倫已經作出加息的決定,不過是暫緩執行,不過,我仍然認為,耶倫沒有立刻加息是錯誤的決定。

紀惠集團行政總裁

[湯文亮 敢說亮話]

http://www.mpfinance.com/fin/columnist2.php?col=1463481149913&node=1475177752830&issue=20160930

曾淵滄﹕愈多政客抗議 股價升得愈高

曾淵滄﹕愈多政客抗議 股價升得愈高
文章日期:2016年9月30日

【明報專訊】過去一個星期,恒指呈上落市,美國總統大選電視辯論前曾經引起一些震盪,理由是被稱為「瘋子」的候選人特朗普民調支持度追上老政客希拉里,不過,電視辯論後,股市收復失地,一般美國民眾認為希拉里的電視辯論表現較好,但是總統選舉畢竟不是辯論比賽,我們還得繼續留意兩人的民調結果。

不用太擔心特朗普勝選

許多人擔心特朗普當上美國總統,但我比較樂觀,正如英國公投結果脫歐,許多人也很擔心,我則看好,最終證明是我對而許多人錯。過去多年,美國新總統在上任前與上任後根本就是兩個人,上任後的總統可以完全忘記他在競選時講過的話,當年,克林頓在競選期間說他如果當選,會取消美國給予中國的最優惠貿易待遇國的資格,但是,克林頓上任後,第一件事是給予中國永久的最大優惠貿易待遇國資格,不必每年檢討。

奧巴馬任期只剩4個多月,開始成為跛腳鴨,美國國會完全不給面子,推翻了奧巴馬的總統否決權而強行通過法律,允許美國911事件的家屬控告沙特阿拉伯政府,今後沙特阿拉伯政府麻煩了,美國也麻煩了。

去年,沙特阿拉伯大量增產石油,據說是響應美國的號召,目的是在低石油價格以打擊俄羅斯,很神奇的巧合,美國國會否決奧巴馬的否決權同一天,沙特阿拉伯及其他石油出口國決定減產石油,是6年來第一次,這項行動有沒有政治意味?石油價格上升,俄羅斯就更有錢來與美國對抗,石油價格一升,依賴入口石油的日本受最大打擊。

內地煤礦停產 煤礦股最受惠

石油價格一升,煤礦股價格升的最多,兗州煤(1171)昨日升上9.55%,這隻股份我推薦過多次,石油股與煤礦股都屬燃料股,升則同升,跌也一齊跌,中國產煤多,煤礦股近期表現好的另一個更重要的原因,是中國政府嚴格執行供給側改革的政策,大量小型煤礦被迫停產,得益的自然是上市的煤礦股。

近來有傳媒報道新世界發展(0017)在橫洲的收地黑幕之類的事,這不是壞事,從小股東的角度來看,更可以說是好事,這證明新世界的確賺了很多錢,所以才會引來搞政府的人抗議。這種情况有如領展(0823)與港鐵(0066),愈多政客抗議,股價就升得愈高。

大學教授

[曾淵滄 滄海明珠]

Dyson orders in FY17 seen accelerating for VS Industry

Dyson orders in FY17 seen accelerating for VS Industry
By RHB Research Institute / The Edge Financial Daily | September 30, 2016 : 9:55 AM MYT

This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on September 30, 2016.

VS Industry Bhd
(Sept 29, RM1.39)
Maintain buy with an unchanged target price (TP) of RM1.72: After growing revenue from Dyson Ltd by 52% in financial year 2016 (FY16), orders from Dyson would continue to accelerate in FY17 as VS Industry Bhd takes on full-assembly jobs to manufacture cordless vacuum cleaners. This is in addition to the existing printed circuit board and battery pack orders from Dyson.

Production ramp-up could start as soon as next month or November, and we estimate this could contribute to around RM400 million to RM500 million to FY17 forecast top line. FY18 could see a further surge in Dyson orders, as more assembly lines go live in the first half of this year.

Keurig Green Mountain Inc’s orders would also pick up in FY17 as VS Industry commences production of its first original design manufacturer-brewer model in January. The first quarter of FY17 (1QFY17) would see a catch-up in delivery of brewer models initially scheduled for shipment in 4QFY16. VS Industry’s Indonesian operations turned profitable in FY16 on better utilisation. Excluding the impairment on deposit paid for the solar project, core operations in China booked a RM2.9 million in profit before tax, from RM7.6 million in losses last year. In the coming year, profitability in China would be buoyed by orders of water filtration products from NEP Holdings (M) Bhd, which would add at least RM100 million per annum in revenue. Recall that NEP Holdings has a five-year tie-up with a subsidiary of Haier Electronics Group Co Ltd to distribute the former’s products via the latter’s strong 40,000 retail outlets.

We continue to like VS Industry for its diversified and growing earnings base from key customers such as Keurig, Dyson and Zodiac. As results were in line, we make no changes to our earnings forecasts and TP of RM1.72, supported by a corroborative discounted cash flow valuation. Key risks to our forecasts include weak consumer sentiment, plant accidents and foreign-exchange movements. — RHB Research Institute, Sept 29

Gamuda FY16 results broadly in line with forecasts

Gamuda FY16 results broadly in line with forecasts
By CIMB Investment Bank / The Edge Financial Daily | September 30, 2016 : 9:59 AM MYT

This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on September 30, 2016.



Gamuda Bhd
(Sept 29, RM4.90)
Maintain add with a higher target price (TP) of RM5.97: Gamuda Bhd’s financial year ended July 31, 2016 (FY16) core net profit was 3% above our and 2% ahead of consensus forecasts. The overall results were broadly in line. The 8.3% decline in core net profit was largely expected, given the tail-end recognition of mass rapid transit Line 1 (MRT1) earnings and lower property development margins. FY16 marked an inflection point where new MRT2 earnings on the back of an all-time high order book of RM9 billion began to flow into FY17. The total 12 sen single-tier dividend per share for the full year was in line with our expectations.

Potential larger-value construction wins were the main positive surprise from Gamuda’s results briefing. Over the next 12 months, management targets to secure RM3 billion to RM4 billion worth of infrastructure projects. These could come from: i) light rail transit Line 3; ii) subcontract works for the Gemas-Johor Baru double-tracking rail project; and iii) Pan Borneo Highway in Sabah. The new guidance puts the value of each targeted package at about RM1 billion.

With the award phase of MRT2 underway, MRT Corp Sdn Bhd is now targeting to submit the feasibility studies for MRT3 by end-2016. MRT3 is likely to be largely underground and the most tunnel-intensive. The potential contract value could be substantially higher than the RM15.5 billion underground scope for MRT2 given the higher cost per kilometre. Gamuda has so far secured underground packages from MRT1 and MRT2 via the MMC-Gamuda joint venture (50:50).

Gamuda is positioning itself to tender for the RM30 billion-to-RM40 billion Kuala Lumpur-Singapore high-speed rail (HSR) project now that the project has better tender time visibility, which is end-2017. Its management highlighted that a project of this size and scale fits into the group’s expertise and track record. At this juncture, it only targets to tender for the civil works but remains open to the possibility of taking on a bigger role in the project. However, this would depend on the final project structure.

We raise our TP from RM5.92 as we roll over our valuation to end-2017 (still pegged to a 10% discount to revised net asset value). We continue to like Gamuda for its earnings turnaround in FY17 and exposure to large-scale rail projects. It remains our sector top pick. Downside risk is delay in job roll-outs but this is outweighed by the revival of job wins, sale of water asset and likely recovery in foreign shareholding (currently at a low of 22%). — CIMB Investment Bank, Sept 29

SapuraKencana 1H earnings account for 98% full-year estimate

SapuraKencana 1H earnings account for 98% full-year estimate
By Kenanga Research / The Edge Financial Daily | September 30, 2016 : 9:56 AM MYT

This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on September 30, 2016.

SapuraKencana Petroleum Bhd
(Sept 29, RM1.57)
Maintain market perform with an unchanged target price (TP) of RM1.48: In the first half ended July 31, 2016 (1HFY17), SapuraKencana Petroleum Bhd booked a core net profit of RM191.3 million, which is deemed within expectations despite accounting for 98% and 91% of our and consensus full-year estimates as we expect a weaker 2HFY17 on potential drag by weaker engineering and construction (E&C) and drilling segments. Our core net profit excludes the one-off gain of RM37 million arising from the cessation of Berantai risk service contract (RSC). No dividend was declared as expected.

Sequentially, SapuraKencana’s second quarter ended July 31, 2016 (2QFY17) earnings dropped 36% from 1QFY17 in tandem with a 14% drop in overall revenue due to weaker contribution from the drilling segment. However, it was partially offset by better joint venture and associate contributions, led by stronger earnings from pipelay support vessels chartered to Petróleo Brasileiro SA with the commencement of Sapura Esmeralda in April 2016, as well as improvement in the E&C segment. Note that E&C recorded a 53% growth in profit before tax quarter-on-quarter despite a 22% drop in revenue due largely to recognition of higher-margined projects and better asset utilisation post monsoon.

On a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis, earnings fell 79% from RM352.3 million in 2QFY16, in line with a 40% decline in top line, largely marred by weaker contributions across all divisions. The energy segment’s earnings contribution fell significantly to RM6 million from RM63.9 million y-o-y due to lower average lifting oil prices at US$48 (RM197.76) a barrel versus US$65 a barrel in the corresponding period a year ago and exclusion of earnings contribution from the Berantai RSC. Cumulatively, 1HFY17 core net profit fell 68% to RM191.3 million from RM600.8 million in 1HFY16 due to weakening revenue and margins for all three segments.

SapuraKencana’s latest order book weakened to RM17.7 billion from RM19.8 billion in 1QFY17, mainly comprising tenders for its E&C division. The company expects RM4.4 billion and RM3.4 billion to be recognised in 2HFY17 and FY18 respectively. Its tender book was reduced to US$6 billion from US$7 billion in 1QFY17 following several contract wins. We are seeing slower contract replenishment in the next two years in the absence of fabrication and offshore jobs as a result of cautious spending by oil majors.

Despite 1HFY17 earnings accounting for 98% of our full-year forecast, we are maintaining our FY17 and FY18 earnings forecasts in view of weaker prospects in 2HFY17 arising from a weaker drilling segment as well as lower contribution from the E&C segment.

We are maintaining our TP at RM1.48, pegged to 0.7 times FY18 price-to-book value (P/BV), higher than the current sector valuation of 0.6 times P/BV. — Kenanga Research, Sept 29

Scientex launches operations of RM220m BOPP film plant

Scientex launches operations of RM220m BOPP film plant
By Surin Murugiah / theedgemarkets.com | September 29, 2016 : 12:02 PM MYT

KUALA LUMPUR (Sept 29): Packaging manufacturer Scientex Berhad has launched operations of its new RM220 million BOPP film manufacturing plant — the largest such facility in Malaysia — in Pulau Indah, Selangor.

BOPP film forms the protective outer layer of flexible consumer packaging, and is commonly used in the food and beverages industry.

The new plant, with an annual production capacity of 60,000 metric tonnes (MT), was constructed in collaboration with Futamura Chemical Co., Ltd. (Futamura), a plastic films manufacturer and the largest BOPP film manufacturer in Japan.

The plant is equipped with state-of-the-art machinery from Japan Steel Works, Ltd., capable of wider-web and higher-speed film production.

In a statement today, Scientex managing director Lim Peng Jin said the inauguration marked an important milestone for Scientex, as it combines Japan’s technological prowess with Scientex’s manufacturing efficiency, to produce high quality BOPP film for domestic and regional markets in Asia Pacific.

“We look forward to fulfilling anticipated strong market demand, as Malaysia presently imports most of its BOPP requirements, due to a shortage in local supply.

“We also strive to capture new growth opportunities in the regional markets.

“This is certainly a pivotal moment for our consumer packaging business, as we are now one step ahead in realizing our target of becoming a leading single-source provider of international-quality consumer packaging films in the region.”

Futamura holds a 10% shareholding in Scientex Great Wall Sdn Bhd (SGW), the Group’s consumer packaging unit, and would purchase approximately one third of the new plant’s annual BOPP film production.

“We have been aggressively marketing our high-performance BOPP film to several packaging players, both domestically and regionally, and have also conducted product trials with them.

“We are pleased to receive commendable feedback to date, and look forward to commence supply to them in the near term,” Lim said.

At 11.32 a.m., Scientex gained 0.59% or 4 sen to RM6.79, with 236,600 shares done.

Getting Started In Scalping/Ultra Short Term Trading

Getting Started In Scalping/Ultra Short Term Trading
September 29, 2016 By admin 0 Comments

On 28th September, 2016, Jigsaw Trading presented a 1 hour webinar on scalping. Discussing a number of scalping setups on volatile and slow markets.



Originally, scalping was a term used to define trading that captured the spread. Buying the bid and selling the offer. Over time the term has become more widely used and now people use it to describe many different styles of trading. I guess the reality is that the word scalping doesn’t mean much any more. It’s become overused and now it’s really a matter of opinion of what defines a scalp and what doesn’t.

In this presentation, we stuck to trading techniques that are closer to the original definition of scalping – starting out with techniques that focus on capturing the spread.

We did of course discuss techniques that grab more than 1 tick because even a market maker looking to capture the spread will take more if it’s on the table. It’s not as if scalpers are intentionally leaving money on the table by taking just 1 tick from a trade. It’s just that scalpers are working from a completely different perspective. So todays webinar is more about the perspective, the decision making process than the amount of ticks profit or loss.

And perspectives really are different. A longer term day trader might be looking at support and resistance, trying to figure out what sort of day type it is, what the MACD is doing, where the value area was yesterday and so on scalpers, certainly those in their purest spread capturing form simply DO NOT CARE about any of this stuff. With a different perspective, they make decisions based on different factors, factors that are often very short lived and that change minute to minute.

Not only are perspectives different, so are the win rates. In fact the win rate of a scalper is often what many traders would consider ‘outrageously high’. I know a scalper whose stats are:
85% wins
10% scratches
5% losses.

Of course, these stats don’t include bids or offers that get placed but never get filled and where the market leaves without you. Missed trades, which are a big part of scalping.

Now – if you came across a web site promising you an 85% win rate, you’d most likely think it was a scam and in all probability you would be absolutely correct.

But we aren’t talking about risking 5 ticks to make 20 ticks here. We are talking about very small targets and trades where there is a momentary high probability opportunity which is very short lived.

If you considered typical retail commission on the S&P500 of $4.00 per turn, then a losing single tick trade will cost you $16.50 but a winning trade would get you $8.50.

So of course, the win rate has to be higher. It wouldn’t work otherwise. It also makes sense that you use a deep discount broker, get onto some sort of program with the CME (such as the IIP program that knocks 66c off the CME Fees for the ES).

The higher win rate does not make scalping better or scalpers smarter traders. It just means that scalping is different.

http://www.jigsawtrading.com/blog/getting-started-scalping/?mc_cid=3eeba7c402&mc_eid=8dd27b7541

Thursday, September 29, 2016

捷运二线工程开跑.金务大展望强劲

捷运二线工程开跑.金务大展望强劲
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Thu, 29 Sep 2016, 05:28 PM
2016-09-29 17:14

金务大2016年业绩平平无奇,但分析员纷认为随捷运二线(MRT2)工程即将开跑,金务大业绩展望依然强劲,预测2017年将是再登高峰的一年。

(吉隆坡29日讯)金务大(GAMUDA,5398,主板建筑组)2016年业绩平平无奇,但分析员纷认为随捷运二线(MRT2)工程即将开跑,金务大业绩展望依然强劲,预测2017年将是再登高峰的一年。

联昌研究指出,金务大2016年核心净利比市场预期高出2到3%之间,意味2016年业绩暂时转弱是意料中事,毕竟捷运一线(MRT1)进账已来到尾声,产业臂膀贡献也走低。

据了解,捷运一线目前进度已达90至92%。

“由于已赢得捷运二线承包合约,金务大目前正筹备提呈捷运三线的研究报告,有关新线路的隧道工程价值可能远超捷运二线。”

放眼攫40亿基建合约

管理层也放眼在未来12个月内赢得30亿至40亿令吉基建合约。

丰隆研究表示,金务大目前掌握的订单价值高达90亿令吉,相当于2016年建筑收入的9.9倍,产业臂膀未入账目销售则达12亿令吉,是2016年产业收入的1.1倍。

“目前值得关注的是,金务大持股40%的雪州水务控股(Splash)最快可能在下个月易主,假设出价是一倍账面值,金务大将可获分12亿令吉,惟这笔钱不太可能用于派特别息,而是会被用在槟城交通蓝图计划上。”

不过,肯纳格研究提醒,虽然脱售水务资产可释放资产价值,来自水务业务的贡献却也将消失,雪州水务控股目前约为金务大贡献1亿2000万令吉税前盈利。

总的来看,马银行研究预测在捷运二线和泛婆罗洲大道合约贡献下,金务大业绩可在2017财政年重返升轨,这可能使金务大获市场重估。

明年是新成长周期起点

达证券业认同业绩将复苏的看法,认为2017年将是新成长周期起点,金务大可望打破自己在2014年创下的盈利纪录。

由于业绩无惊喜,金务大今日表现平平,闭市以平盘4令吉90仙挂收。



文章来源:星洲日报‧财经‧报道:李三宇‧2016.09.29

http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1572154/%E6%8D%B7%E8%BF%90%E4%BA%8C%E7%BA%BF%E5%B7%A5%E7%A8%8B%E5%BC%80%E8%B7%91%EF%BC%8E%E9%87%91%E5%8A%A1%E5%A4%A7%E5%B1%95%E6%9C%9B%E5%BC%BA%E5%8A%B2

[转贴] 如何處理產品周期 - 止凡

[转贴] 如何處理產品周期 - 止凡
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Thu, 29 Sep 2016, 10:20 AM

2016年9月28日星期三

在投資股票時,如果好像止凡一樣喜歡看其公司的基本面,除了看年報之外,還可以留意很多公司消息,亦能從公司的一些大小動作窺視一下管理層的取態。有一個很重要的要素是看公司如何處理產品周期,這會直接影響公司的盈利增長。




首先,大家要對所投資的公司有基本了解,如果 連公司如何賺錢也不清楚,單單聽了財演說了兩句「現價抵買,還能博升」之類的說話就飛身入市,只會撞得焦頭爛額。當基本了解過公司賣什麼樣的產品之後,有 否留意其產品的周期呢?這指顧客一般會用這個產品多久,產品本身會否過期或壞掉,令顧客何時需要再買。

不少公司所做的生意可以說是沒有產品周期的問題,好像飲食業,不停地填飽客人的肚子, 所賣的食物,客人即時吃完,所以可以不停地賣出。銀行業,把金錢借入借出,無所謂到期不到期的。對於這類行業,所著眼的盈利增長方法並不是在於產品周期身 上,而是另一些考慮,例如產品或服務質素之類。

另一邊廂,大部份公司都是出售有周期的產品,好像出產電視,一次過全球賣出100萬 部,每部電視平均壽命為5年,就算假設這些客戶當電視壞掉之後就會買回同樣的電視,這家公司於這部電視型號的營業額只可以是每年20萬部的一個循環,而不 是每年100萬部。何況要做到賣出100萬部已經很難,現實不會多數人買入同一個型號及品牌,而5年後這台電視都已經過時,電視的產品周期不可能有5年。 所以,這樣的產品周期下,可以說賣電器只是一次過,生存多久就視乎其領域的科技發展如何。電器的戰場就是這樣難做,哪他們想了什麼辦法呢?

大家有否留意一般電器都會出產不同型號的產品,每一種型號可能只是相差很微,電視來說,由其大小、解像度、支援線路等,同一個系列可以出產10款以上的產品,其實這都是希望盡可能滲透到所有用家上,賣出越多越好。

好像出售電腦處理器的Pentium,就會研發出當時最高科技、最高速度的處理器,但 就會按不同產品需要故意調低速度至不同水平,變成10個8個產品型號賣出,而最高速度的幾款更加不會立即推出市場售賣。以這樣的策略應付產品周期,本來一 個研究產品只能賣出100萬件,幾年後被淘汱,如今就可以賣出更多,亦提供了誘因給買家購入更新的產品。

同樣的情況都出現在手機市場,今時今日,大部份人都不會把手機用至真正壞掉才換,因為 買入手機不出一年,手機功能就已經大落後,跟這手機型號差不多的又出了新款,比你的手機更快、更靚、更多功能。本來你應該感覺不太良好,剛買完不足一年就 出新款,早知就等到新款出來才買,有點被騙的感覺,今次還會買嗎?可能不會了,因為大家都預期再有新款會不停出現的。但手機商如何處理呢?他們用了 trade in這一招去解決,買新手機時可以同時賣出舊手機,他們會給出一個舊手機回收價,消費者只要補點差價就能換部最新型號手機。

舊手機去了什麼地方呢?可能到了二手市場,又可能被廠收回拿零件再造成新型號手機,總 之這個安排就保持了新產品的銷量,大大縮短了產品周期,同時客戶又感覺良好,的確十分高明。大部份金舖也有類似招數,金飾總是值錢的就不用說,原來客戶更 可以拿手飾去換,一些鑽戒之類,客人配戴過以後都可以以按賣價某個成數去換購其他產品,但不可以換回金錢,所以只可以越換越貴的產品。

還有一點,產品是會「死亡」的,好像電視的例子,5年後拿今天的電器來賣,根本就賣不 出。所以,處理產品周期不當的話,十居其九會出現存貨問題。時裝零售業如果經營不善的話,最先出現的問題就是存貨問題,因為公司預期的產品開始賣不出去, 存貨自然慢慢增加起來,到一定時期就只好注銷,因為產品已經過時,「死亡」了。

雖然話飲食業沒有所謂產品周期,但大家留意麥當奴都十分積極地加快交易周期,怕客戶想得太久,就簡化為幾個餐,怕排隊等交易太耐,就分了兩條人龍,一條先落單交易,另一條讓你慢慢等食物,務求在繁忙時間吸納最多生意。

所以,分析公司時,年報是基本,慢慢地你需要有跟公司一起做生意的想頭,用生意人的角度看事情,若然不理想或不是你杯茶的話,就最好不要買入了。不妨留意一下身邊不同公司如何了解及處理產品周期這個問題,你會有不少啟發。

大家又可以想想,為何近年的燈泡好像很快燒掉?傳聞在美國加州利佛摩6號消防站的一顆白熾燈泡,已經使用了115年,創下世界紀錄,誰控制了燈泡的產品周期呢?

張貼者: 止凡 23:03

http://cpleung826.blogspot.my/2016/09/blog-post_28.html

Southeast Asian stocks still not expensive for Mobius

Wednesday, 28 September 2016 | MYT 2:34 PM
Southeast Asian stocks still not expensive for Mobius

SINGAPORE: Southeast Asian shares, some of the priciest in developing nations, still offer good value and political worries about the region are “overdone,” according to Mark Mobius.

“They’re not really expensive in the environment that we’re in now,” Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, said in a live interview on Bloomberg’s Facebook page at the Bloomberg Markets Most Influential summit in Hong Kong.

“Southeast Asia is benefiting from the growth of China and increasingly from the growth in India.”

The 12-month price-to-earnings ratio for the MSCI South East Asia Index has risen from this year’s low of 12.5 in January to a 16-month high of 15.2 in August amid a rally in emerging-market assets.

It was 14.9 on Wednesday, compared with 12.5 for a measure of developing-nation equities.

Overseas investors pulled money from the Manila bourse for 24 straight days through Tuesday amid concern Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s abrasive style is deterring investors, while in Indonesia a disappointing tax amnesty has contributed to outflows.

Investors are still pumping money into Thai equities even amid uncertainty over the health of the 88-year-old king, who has been a source of political stability throughout this reign.

No Downside

“There are individual problems in each of the countries,” said Mobius. “There’s concern about Duterte in the Philippines, which I think is overdone. There’s concern about reforms in Indonesia and the political environment in Thailand. I don’t see downside anywhere.”

"Foreign funds have pulled $351 million from Philippine shares this month and $300 million from Indonesia, while adding $525 million to Thai equities, exchange data show.

While they’ve come off highs reached in July or August, most of the region’s main share gauges are still up for the quarter.

The Jakarta Composite Index advanced 7.5 percent, the SET Index rose 3 percent and the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index increased 0.8 percent. Only the Philippine benchmark measure has fallen, dropping 2.8 percent.

“I like the consumer sector in Southeast Asia because per capita incomes are going up,” said Mobius. “On a selective basis, I like technology.” - Bloomberg

Higher target price for Gamuda, eyes RM3bil to RM4bil infra projects

Thursday, 29 September 2016 | MYT 8:40 AM
Higher target price for Gamuda, eyes RM3bil to RM4bil infra projects



Gamuda eyes RM3bil to RM4bil worth of infrastructure projects over the next 12 months.

KUALA LUMPUR: CIMB Equities Research has raised the target price for Gamuda Bhd from RM5.92 to RM5.97 – which is an upside of 21.8% from its last traded price of RM4.90 while the infrastructure and property company eyes RM3bil to RM4bil worth of infrastructure projects.

The research house said on Thursday it had raised its target price as it rolled over its valuation to end-2017 (still pegged to a 10% realised net asset value (RNAV) discount.

“We continue to like Gamuda for its earnings turnaround in FY17F and exposure to large-scale rail projects. It remains our sector top pick. Downside risk is delay in job rollouts but this is outweighed by the revival of job wins, sale of water asset and the likely recovery in foreign shareholding (currently at a low of 22%),” it said.

The research house said the core net profit for the fiscal year ended July 31, 2016 (FY16) was 3% above its and 2% ahead of consensus forecasts. The overall results were broadly in line. The 8.3% decline in core net profit was largely expected, given the tail-end recognition of MRT 1 earnings and lower property development margins.

FY16 marked an inflection point where new MRT 2 earnings on the back of an all-time high order book of RM9bn began to flow into FY17.

“Potential larger-value construction wins was the main positive surprise from Gamuda's results briefing. Over the next 12 months, management targets to secure RM3bil to RM4bil worth of infrastructure projects. These could come from: 1) LRT 3, 2) subcontract works for the Gemas-JB double-tracking rail project, and 3) Pan Borneo Highway in Sabah. The new guidance puts the value of each targeted package at RM1bil,” it said.

CIMB Research said with the award phase of MRT 2 underway, MRT Corp is now targeting to submit the feasibility studies for MRT 3 (the last component of KVMRT) by end-2016.

MRT 3 is likely to be largely underground and the most tunnel-intensive. The potential contract value could be substantially higher than the RM15.5bn underground scope for MRT 2 given the higher cost/km.

Gamuda has so far secured underground packages from MRT 1 and MRT 2 via the MMC-Gamuda JV (50:50).

“Gamuda is positioning to tender for the RM30bil-RM40bil KL-Singapore high-speed rail (HSR) project now that the project has better tender time visibility, that is end-2017.

Shift in sales strategy helps Hai-O attract younger crowd

Thursday, 29 September 2016
Shift in sales strategy helps Hai-O attract younger crowd
BY S. PUSPADEVI



AGM time: Hai-O executive chairman Tan Kai Hee (centre), Tan Keng Kang (third from left) and other members of the board of directors at Hai-O’s 41st AGM held in Kuala Lumpur.


KUALA LUMPUR: Multi-level marketing firm Hai-O Enterprise Bhd said a shift in its sales strategy to focus on smaller and less pricey consumer items is helping the company attract the younger crowd.

This is fuelling its double-digit revenue growth.

“Our shift in strategy has attracted more young entrepreneurs to sign up as distributors in the MLM division,” group managing director Tan Keng Kang said.

“At present we have 80,000 distributors and the numbers are still growing everyday,” Tan told reporters after Hai-O’s 41st AGM yesterday.

Tan noted that in efforts to drive higher sales volume in the MLM segment, it had ploughed in RM10mil in capital expenditure to upgrade its e-commerce platform and set up more distribution centres nationwide.

“We will open more distribution centres to improve efficiency of resources and support the increasing sales volume to ensure business sustainability.

“We have also plans in the pipeline to expand Hai-O’s market share in the virtual market,” he said, adding Hai-O’s undertakings in the e-commerce activities were still in the preliminary stages.

Hai-O’s net profit for the first quarter ended July 31, 2016 rose 46.9% to RM9.74mil or 5.03 sen per share, from RM6.63mil or 3.39 sen per share, a year earlier, mainly contributed by its MLM and wholesale divisions.

Revenue was up 42% to RM78.66mil from RM55.38mil.

In the meantime, Tan expects Hai-O’s retail and wholesale segments to be impacted by the soft consumer sentiment amid the weak economy and uncertainties around the region.

But we hope to mitigate this by managing cost overheads and improving ties with business associates to expand product offerings,” he noted.

On its plans in China and Indonesia, Tan said the company did not intend to shift its distribution business from the countries, although the operating conditions were tough.

“It is rather challenging doing business in Indonesia and China due to the stringent regulations there, but we are not moving away because opportunities are still huge in these markets,” he said, adding that it would focus on growing its distributions in South-East Asia.

Hai-O intends to grow its market capitalisation to RM1bil in the next three years, and hoped to maintain its 50% dividend policy.

Hai-O shares closed unchanged at RM3.45 yesterday with a market value of RM662mil.

周顯:莊家有錢 散戶沒錢

周顯:莊家有錢 散戶沒錢
文章日期:2016年9月29日

【明報專訊】這兩個月來,很多莊家都企圖「做嘢」,所以不少細價股都升了少少,但又升得不多,皆因莊家踢了兩踢,發現沒有散戶參與,於是便收手不炒了,但由於連沽家也沒有了,所以股價仍然可以維持微升,沒有跌回下去。

我對朋友的說法是﹕「現在是莊家有錢,但散戶沒錢,所以細價股一直沒有起色。」

科網熱時莊家沒錢散戶有

回想起1999年,因為金融風暴剛過去了,莊家好多已經輸到跳樓,但散戶卻可以逐漸回復元氣,當時細價股也在利用market force慢慢回升,莊家先出了一浸貨,收回一點現金,唞順條氣發現﹕咦!乜隻股票仲升緊嘅?於是,莊家又再回身入場,再炒一轉轟轟烈烈的,散戶更加跟得如痴如醉,這就是當年的科網熱了。

以上的情况,就是莊家沒錢,但散戶有錢的炒法,和現時恰好相反。不過,由於九七一役,莊家曾經輸過大錢,所以今日的香港莊家已經進化成精,就算經歷了幾個熊市,再要他們輸錢,好難了。

青年人薪水不高 培養新散戶需時

至於散戶,當然永遠都是蠢的,但是要培養下一代新的散戶出來,還是需要好幾年的時間,何况新一代的青年人薪水不高,要他們儲錢炒股票,一段時間是難免要等待的。

新書預告一則﹕《五胡戰史》第四集寫了大半,《炒股實戰》寫了十分之一,但因心血來潮,先寫一本中國上古史,名叫《易經密碼》,主旨是揭發出《易經》的秘密,現在腦中全是上古史的人物故事,就像《變型金剛2狂派再起》的男主角一般,要把它們統統寫出來,才感到痛快。

[周顯 投資二三事]
http://www.mpfinance.com/fin/columnist2.php?col=1463481127012&node=1475088633712&issue=20160929

Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Here’s Why Nice, Caring, Loving And Generous People Finish First And Jerks Finish Last

Here’s Why Nice, Caring, Loving And Generous People Finish First And Jerks Finish Last



The only beings on Earth that utilize the currency we call money is other people, yes? Any money you get has to come from other people. It does not come from your business; not your job, not the universe, not the sky, trees, cows or plants—unless you happen to sell those. You get the point though. Other people have to give you their money in order for you to make money.

The only question is: why would other people give you their money?
The answer is because you’re helping them solve some sort of problem, whether you’re employed or self-employed.

But here’s the next question: If you had a choice of two people to give your money to in order to solve a problem, which would you rather give it to: the person who can solve the problem and be totally pleasant, and friendly, and kind, and considerate, or the other person who can solve the problem but is the opposite of all of that?

The nice person! This may sound trite, but you wouldn’t believe how many people I come across who have this idea that in order to make it in business, you have to be an A-hole of sorts in order to not get trampled over or something.

Who the hell is saying that if you’re nice then you don’t do well? That’s crazy!

You do way better being kind, generous, caring and considerate because people want to give you their money, or people want to work for you, or you want to work for them if that’s the case. You don’t want to work for a jerk and you don’t want to give your money to a jerk.

Now I’ll be clear about one thing …a lot of rich people are assholes. But you know what? A lot of poor people are assholes, too! What the hell does that have to do with money?

The nicer you are, the more kind you are, the more generous you are, the more giving you are, the more concerned you are, and the more compassionate you are, the richer you’re going to freaking get, because people want to give you their money to nice people!

It honestly bugs the crap out of me; there are a few rich people that are jerks and now everybody who’s rich is a jerk.

Will you be a jerk?

“When you get a certain amount, money corrupts people.” Really?

At what number will you be corrupt? When will you go from a nice person in your heart to an a-hole? A million dollars? “Oh yes, now I’m a jerk.”

If you find yourself being a jerk, what do you do? Take a fricking breath, go to a retreat, go in the woods, go to nature, get back to your center and be nice again.

If you think that nice people don’t get rich, why don’t you be nice and get rich so you can show people how to do it?

It doesn’t mean you let people walk all over you. That’s silly. That’s disempowering. You be who you are, you don’t let people walk all over you, but you can be nice about it, too.

We’re alchemists, which means by our own thoughts we determine what is what; if it’s good, bad, right, wrong, up, down, because everything is relative in the world of duality and paradox we live in.

Nothing is anything until you make it something. You’re the one with the magic wand. You’re the one who’s giving meaning to everything. If you think you have to be a prick in order to be rich—and being rich happens to be more important to you—then of course you’ll be a rich prick even if you really don’t want to be.

If you think you have to be a prick in order to be rich, and being nice is more important to you than being rich, then guess what? You’ll be nice, but you’ll probably be broke too, all based on a false idea that success and niceness are mutually exclusive.

They’re both important. Stop separating them; they’re one in the same. Then more problems you solve for more people in the kindest, most caring, compassionate, considerate, and humorous way (don’t forget people like being around fun) you can muster, the more materially successful and emotionally and spiritually fulfilled you will become.

What do you think? What are some sneaky self-defeating ideas you have heard about the relationship between money and personal character? Have you held yourself back with these ideas? How did you overcome that?

http://www.harveker.com/2016/09/27/heres-nice-caring-loving-generous-people-finish-first-jerks-finish-last/

“I Always Knew I Was Going to be Rich” kcchongnz

“I Always Knew I Was Going to be Rich” kcchongnz
Author: kcchongnz | Publish date: Tue, 27 Sep 2016, 10:13 PM



[Dear KC,

I am a follower of your blogs & postings in i3investor and I like what you wrote.

I have a 25-year-old son who has been in the rat race for 2 years and I would very much like him to pick up investing skills while young. How do you charge?

Appreciate a reply from you.

Mum]


[Hi KC,

I had read through the details you sent and actually in the middle of discussion with my children on their participation to your course. Both my elder children are currently studying in private university, one studying finance and marketing and another one studying music.

My objective for their participation at this young age is to generate their awareness and interest into acquiring this investment knowledge and skill as well as to enable them to create a steady income pipeline from investment by taking action plan after the course and to achieve a successful, meaningful and better living style.] HS

First a clarification. The saying above, “I Always Knew I was Going to be Rich” is from Warren Buffett, not me. I did not say I am rich.

How lucky the children above are! I wish my parents had done that for me when I was at that age. Then I am pretty sure I could say what Warren had said. Yes, I really believe so. It is not because one will automatically become very rich in a year, 10 years or even 20 years, following some investing methods, any method for that matter. But, imagine with scores of years for the children to build up their long term wealth, with the eighth wonder of the world, the power of compounding, and a proven and plausible way of investing with higher probability of success, the sky is the limit.



“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” Albert Einstein

Power of compounding

Professor Jeremy Siegel, in his article, “Stocks for the long run”, made a study of the long-term returns of stocks at various periods from 1871 to 2012 in the United States. For a 141-year period from 1871-2012 in the USA, stocks’ total real annual return including dividend yield and after adjusting for inflation of 3% is 6.6%, or a gross return of 9.6%. The return in most of the developed and developing countries in the world do not differ much, including that of KLSE.

A young person starting work at the age of 23 who saves and invests $1000 a month, slowly increasing according to the increase of salary of 4%, in the stock market for a long term horizon yielding 9.6% a year will accumulate a total of $5.5m by the time he retires at the age of 60.

What if he can compound it at a higher rate of return? How to get a higher return with little risk?

The Super Investors of Graham and Doddsville

In a paper titled “The Super Investors of Graham and Doddsville”, Warren Buffet showed the track records of each of nine disciples of Benjamin Graham showing that they all generated annual compounded returns of between 18% and 29% over track records lasting between 13 to 28 years investing in the equity markets over a long period of time, out-performing the broad market by wide margins. Let’s have a look at their profit history as shown in Table 1 below.

Table 1: Returns of the Super Investors of Graham and Dodd

Investor                   No. of Yrs  Annualised  Return  S&P / Dow  Return

Buffett Partnership 13               29.5%           7.4 % (Dow)

Walter Schloss        28               21.3%           8.4%

Tweedy Browne     16               20%              7%

Bill Ruane              14               18.2%           10%

Charlie Munger      14               19.8%            5.0% (Dow)

Pacific Partners      18                32.9%           7.8%

Perlmeter Investments  18          23%               7.0 % (Dow)

All the above investors came from just one school of thought in investing, the principles and methodologies of fundamental value investing (FVI). Their performances were well documented.

Take for example of the investing experience of Walter Schloss who had made a CAR of 21.3% over a 28 years investing period. The young person above who can save and invest following Schloss’s simple investing methodology for 28 years would have accumulated a whopping sum of $71m by the time he reaches 60 years old!

More recently, more super investors such as Joel Greenblatt, Seth Klarmen, Howard Marks, Mohnish Pabrai, Peter Lynch and many other fundamental value investing fund managers have all generated high return of over 20% CAR over an extended period of time, making billions for themselves and their investors.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/88007.jsp

What about long-term investing in Bursa? Why are there so many investors, some seemingly very experienced investors say it is not advisable to invest in individual stocks listed in Bursa for more than three years? Do they have statistical significant results to prove that?

I really don’t know about this too as there is no academic research carried out on this, unlike in the US and other more developed markets. What I can do is to do a simplistic back testing on some stocks listed in Bursa. I would use those stocks I have had in the two established portfolios of mine in i3investor about three years ago, and back test them for a longer period of 10 years, and see if holding them for 10 years can provide a good compounded return.

Ten-year compounded return of some stocks in Bursa

Table 2 in the Appendix shows the returns of the individual stocks in the combined portfolio of 19 stocks invested from 1st March 2006 to 29th February 2016. The 10-year period of study is reasonable representative as it has included a complete cycle of boom and bust in 2009.

A few stocks have shorter listing history and the actual shorter periods of listing are used. Some, for example Jobstreet, has no complete records and partial and shorter records were used. The share price data were obtained from the adjusted prices given by Yahoo Finance. It is assumed that a total of RM100000 was invested in equal amount for each of the 19 stocks in the portfolio.

In this 10-year period, KLCI has increased by 80%, or a compounded growth rate, CAR, of 6%, an underperformance compared to the historical long-term return of about CAR of 10%.

However, the portfolio of the 19 stocks has returned 470%, or a CAR of 24.4% over the 10-year period. Seventeen out of the nineteen stocks made positive returns, ranging from a low of 49% for Plenitude to a high of 1843% for SKP Resources. Four of them are 10-baggers; SKP Resources (+1843%), Datasonic (+1675%), Pintaras Jaya (+1424%), and CBIP (+1005%). The CAR of these 10-baggers range from 27.2% to 34.5% for those stocks which have more than 10 years’ records.

What is the risk in investing in these stocks for the long-term?

There are only two losers; Pantech and Fibon, with only a minimal loss of only 22%, and one other under-performer in Plenitude, which only managed to garner a cumulative return of 49% for the last ten years, underperforming the broad market of 80%.

So who say one cannot invest in Bursa stocks for more than 3 years for compounding return?

Super parents

The above two parents who have encouraged their children to learn about fundamental investing, I consider super parents, but not yet until their children have “graduated” from my course, or other courses in FVI. Why? It is not easy. It is not easy not because those stuff are difficult but the contrary.

First, I can’t even convince my children, two of them are accountants, to learn about FVI. Three of my high school friends, had enrolled their children to learn about FVI from me, but just in the dinner three days ago, they told me they were too busy to learn because of their demanding career. A number of my course participants had also enrolled their children to the course, but I hardly heard of them discussing or asking in our forums, all for the same reason; no commitment, no interest, or too busy. Can’t blame them, it is a rat race out there.

I have responded to “Mum’s email and thought that she would quickly enrolled her son to learn from me on the FVI. However, I have not heard from Mum since. That was more than a week ago. I think it may not be the money as it is just a meagre sum. Most probably she can’t convince her son to spend some time to learn. Who cares about FVI? What use is that? I don’t have time!

I have a couple of very close University mates whom I also used to go minum occasionally. They are very successful in their career and they were able to send their children studying overseas full time and graduated as professionals. When I emphasize the need to convince their children to learn about investing, they responded as not necessary, because they will be rich from their career. Probably so, not until they get itchy and start investing without the proper knowledge in investing, I thought. That will be my next topic.

My question is, isn’t building long term wealth as important if not more important from your work? Apparently none agree with me.

But actually we can’t blame the children, almost all my friends as parents are also not willing to spend time and effort learning FVI themselves, although they kept on telling me they agree with me that FVI is important. Most of them simply have no interest. Some may even laugh at me what this FVI is, like some of them in i3investor do to me. Yes, I strongly believe FVI is very important for financial success in the long term. I have no doubt about it.

“value investing is either.... You either get it or you don't.” Seth Klarmen

Conclusions

Our school and university curriculum do not teach us and our children about personal finance and investing, but this, in my opinion, is very important for our financial future.

We as parents should provide some proper guidance to our children in their personal finance in order for them to be successful in their financial future.

It is not that easy though as first of all, many of us as parents are not well equipped with the awareness and knowledge of personal finance and investing. Few have any interest in FVI or even believe in FVI although I have given all the reasons and provided with evidences that FVI had worked and will continue to work. Our children are also very busy in their work and career. Getting our children to be interested is already a big chore.

But what other choice we have in order for them to have good financial future, more so for avoiding the pitfalls in investing? This is something we as parents must ponder and wonder about, deeply.

For those parents (or not parents) who are keen to equip themselves with the proper personal finance and investing knowledge, and wish to encourage their children to do the same, there are many resources out there, one of them is with the email below who have tried to train participants in a structured manner.

ckc15training2@gmail.com

K C Chong

Appendix
 Table 2: 10 years return of some stocks in Bursa from 1st March 2006 to 29th February 2016