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Sunday, July 31, 2016

So Much Student Debt, So Much Ignorance

The Experts
Wealth Management
So Much Student Debt, So Much Ignorance


​ About one-in-five student-loan holders do not know the terms of their loans, says WSJ Wealth Expert Annamaria Lusardi of George Washington University.​ Photo: Getty Images/iStockphoto


By Annamaria Lusardi Jul 12, 2016 11:13 am ET

Annamaria Lusardi (@A_Lusardi) is the Denit Trust Chair of Economics and Accountancy at the George Washington University School of Business, where she focuses on financial literacy, personal finance and macroeconomics.

It will come as no surprise that a lot of people are burdened by education-related debt. What may be surprising is how few of those people even know the terms of that debt.

This is one of the findings of a survey released today by the National Financial Capability Study (NFCS). The study, which I co-authored, found that nearly half (45%) of those aged 18 to 34 owes on at least one loan (for themselves or family members) and more than a quarter of Americans aged 35 to 54 have student loans.

Indeed, the number of student loan borrowers has almost doubled in the past 10 years, from 23 million to the current 43 million borrowers, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. And the amount of total student-loan debt has soared, shooting from $240 billion at the start of 2003 to more than $1.3 trillion today.

The prevalence of student loans is a red flag for anyone concerned about personal debt levels in the country, even more so because these borrowers fail—remarkably—to understand what they have taken on.

The latest NFCS data find that about one-in-five loan holders do not know the terms of their student loans. For example, they can’t say whether their monthly payments are determined by their income. And the majority (54%) of borrowers did not calculate their monthly payments when they took out their most recent loan.

Ignorance is not bliss. The new data also show that 48% of loan holders fear they will be unable to pay off that debt. If they could go back in time, a whopping 53% of student-loan holders say they would do it differently.

We should all be worried about student loan debt. If individuals and their families are not financially secure, not only are they likely to suffer, but their vulnerability also weakens the country’s economic base. For example, there are concerns about whether young workers with student loans are able to contribute to their pensions, and to buy cars and homes. And at the current default rates, student loans are becoming an issue not only for borrowers but for taxpayers as well. By starting their financial life in debt, America’s young adults face a daunting challenge, one that puts them and the economy at risk.

Financial-literacy education, starting as early as elementary school, won’t help current loan holders but it will prepare the next generations of students. For example, one new question tucked into the survey was designed to measure knowledge of interest compounding in the context of debt. What it reveals could explain why people are ending up with such surprising amounts of debt: Only 33% of respondents know that it takes less than five years for debt to double if one borrows at a 20% interest rate.

When it comes to financial capability, the field is wide open to help people and, in particular, the young get savvy about their personal finances. Financial education is key to repairing our economy’s weak link.

http://blogs.wsj.com/experts/2016/07/12/so-much-student-debt-so-much-ignorance/

Saturday, July 30, 2016

(Icon) CIMB (2) - CIMB Niaga Profit Up 74%. Buy Lah, Wait For What ?

(Icon) CIMB (2) - CIMB Niaga Profit Up 74%. Buy Lah, Wait For What ?

Author: Icon8888   |   Publish date: Sat, 30 Jul 2016, 02:41 PM 

1. Introduction

Yesterday, CIMB Niaga released its June 2016 quarterly report. There was marked improvement in results. Net profit increased by 74% Q-o-Q. 
(Press release spinned it as 318% increase Y-o-Y. However, I think Q-o-Q is more reflective of its latest earning momentum)



2. Results Analysis



(a) Compared with previous quater, net profit increased by 74% to Rp467 bil.


(b) One of the major positive contributor is Net Interest Income, which increased by Rp139 bil compared to previous quarter. The increase is mostly due to decline in interest expenses from Rp2,552 bil in previous Q to Rp2,246 bil (decline of Rp306 bil), mostly due to increase in Current Account Deposit. Net interest margin improved from 53% to 57%. Well done !!!   

(c) The other major contributor is lower impaired loans provision, which resulted in saving of Rp120 bil. This is the second consecutive month of decline, after peaking in December 2015 quarter.

Provision is expected to continue to decline in coming quarters as CIMB CEO hinted in a recent interview that he expects second half of 2016 to perform better. Please refer to my previous article for details.

(d) Operating expenses increased by Rp25 bil. This was a negative surprise. After the mid 2015 Mutual Seperation Scheme, I expect cost to come down, not go up. Anyway, it is not a big issue as the increase is not really that big.



3. Earning Forecast

In my previous article, I have guarded feelings for the CIMB Group. I sensed that they are turning around, but was not sure when the recovery will actually happen. However, with CIMB Niaga announcing a reasonably good set of results yesterday, I have turned much more positive towards the group.

Armed with this new peace of information, I set up a financial model to try to feel the CIMB Group's coming quarter result. 



Many people frown upon building financial model to predict future earning. Garbage in garbage out, if you get your assumptions wrong, your prediction will be way off.

However, in this particular case, there is sufficient ground for making such an attempt - CIMB's non Niaga operation has been fairly stable. In the past three quarters, it has generated net profit of RM778 mil, RM752 mil and RM732 mil respectively. I believe there is reasonable chance that the coming quarter will be more or less the same.

By putting together the above information, the model estimates that coming quarter net profit will be approximately RM894 mil.

But how should we interprete this figure ? What is the implication on valuation ? In other words, what should the Target Price be ? 



4. Target Price

I previously set a Target Price of RM5.20 for the stock. That was plucked from the air based on my entry cost of RM4.29 and expected return of 20%.

However, now that I have a better feel of the Group's positive momentum, I am happy to revise it upwards. For inspiration and guidance, I looked back to early 2014 when CIMB was still doing well.



As shown in the diagram above, CIMB traded at RM7.30 based on quarterly profit of RM1.066 bil in March 2014. The  coming quarter of RM894 mil predicted net profit, if materialised, will be approxmimately 84% of its March 2014 quarter profit.

By applying 16% discount to RM7.30, I arrived at revised Target Price of RM6.13 for CIMB over the next 12 months.

That represents potential upside of 40% over latest closing price of RM4.39.



5. Concluding Remarks

(a) Among all the banking stocks, I believe CIMB has the best long term growth potential. This is because of the relatively high weightage of its Indonesian operations. Indonesia's GDP per capita is still low and its population is huge. The country will conitnue to grow at a brisk pace for many years, dragging CIMB along with it.
 
(b) The Group's past 12 months performance was disastrous. Its exposure to Indonesia turned out to be a big liability, dragging down its overall profitability as Indonesia floundered under the tremendous downward pressure caused by collapse of commodity prices.

However, this weakness has now become its strength.

From stock market point of view, CIMB has bigger upside potential compared to other banking stocks such as AFG, Public Bank, Hong Leong Bank, BIMB, Maybank, RHB, etc, which have done reasonably well recently.

With the Indonesian economy now gaining strength, I believe we have reached an inflexion point for CIMB. The risk and reward ratio going forward is favorable. It is time to stop sitting on the fence.

The stock is currently trading at trough valuation. Its immediate and long term prospect is bright. You don't get this kind of opportunity very often.

Buy lah, wait for what ?

超越马银行 国能808亿市值称王

财经 2016年07月29日 | 记者:王生旺
超越马银行 国能808亿市值称王

国家能源市值在7月底已经迎头赶上马银行,成为马股市值最高的公司。

(吉隆坡29日讯)由于股价在过去一个月逐步走高,国家能源(TENAGA,5347,主板贸服股)市值在7月底已经迎头赶上马银行(MAYBANK,1155,主板金融股),成为马股市值最高的公司。

在过去一个月內,国家能源股价呈缓慢走高的趋势,从6月30日的14.10令吉闭市水平,逐步攀升,直到7月28日闭市报14.32令吉,按月上涨22仙或1.56%。

这也推高国家能源市值,一举衝破800亿,从6月底的795亿7500万令吉,攀上808亿1700万令吉,挤下常年佔据市值榜首的马银行,成为7月份市值最高的股项。

马银行拱手让出冠军

国家能源7月份登顶,部份原因是马银行市值缩水,以致拱手让出长期以来的市值冠军宝座。

马银行在过去一个月股价走势波动,6月底收在8.14令吉,期间一度走高至8.23令吉,但隨后在7月14日则一度跌至8.02令吉,大部份时间则在8.02令吉至8.17令吉之间波动,7月28日收报8.04令吉,股价按月下跌10仙或1.23%。

这也导致其市值从6月底的814亿7100万令吉,缩小至804亿7100万令吉,按月收窄1.23%。

银行领域前景欠佳,拖累马银行的股价表现,然而,国家能源则在电力需求成长的带动下,于週四交出良好的业绩表现,让股价在整体低迷的市况中持续走高。

马银行將在本月底公佈其2016財政年次季业绩(截至6月30日止),若业绩比预期好,或许可以提振其股价,稍微挽回目前的形式。

联昌国际跌出10大

至於10大市值排名其他的变化则有,联昌国际(CIMB,1023,主板金融股)市值按月减少1.83%,至374亿4700万令吉,跌出前10名;取而代之的则是数码网络(DIGI,6947,主板基建股),成为7月份第10名。

该公司7月中公布的今年次季业绩中规中矩,但股价却突飞猛进,提振其市值至387亿9700万令吉,按月增加4.39%。

2600万资本开销.马镀锡提高产品质量

2016-07-29 12:09
2600万资本开销.马镀锡提高产品质量
马镀锡工业预计投资2600万令吉资本开销,以提高产品质量和节省成本开销。

(吉隆坡28日讯)马镀锡工业(PERSTIM,5436,主板工业产品组)预计投资2600万令吉资本开销,以提高产品质量和节省成本开销。

马镀锡工业主席拿督魏和顺在股东大会后表示,该公司预计投入2600万令吉的资本开销,以提升大马及越南厂房机械的性能。

他说,产品的质量是该公司关注的事项,通过提升机械性能。除了提高产品质量、减低退货率,也能节省成本开销。

魏和顺说,马镀锡工业目前在大马的厂房每年产能达20万5000公吨,越南厂房的产能则为11万公吨,使用率分别为80%和70%。“大马厂房的营业额贡献为65%,剩余则来自越南厂房,而该公司目前没有任何拓展业务至其他国家的计划。”

他说,马镀锡工业在2015财政年取得优异的表现,惟今年经济前景不明朗,希望公司能够维持与去年相去不远的表现。

据2015年报,马镀锡工业净利由前期的4261万3000令吉增长19.52%至5093万3000令吉;营业额则由前期的6亿5692万7000令吉增长13.16%至7亿4338万5000令吉。

魏和顺说在过去5年,公司皆维持稳定的表现,派息率约80%,因此,会探讨拟定股息政策。

首季净利涨26.67%

马镀锡工业于今日公布截至2016年6月30日止首季净利,增长26.67%至1179万4000令吉;营业额则增长11.33%至1亿7629万4000令吉。

针对“英国脱欧”会否影响该公司的盈利,魏和顺说影响极微,因为该公司并没有太多涉及英国的业务。

小股东在大会后表示,该公司手握强劲现金,因此,有小股东在会上询问管理层是否会派发红股或特别股息,管理层则回应表示将探讨此可能性。

文章来源:星洲日报/财经‧2016.07.29

第三季优异.全年可达标.国能一度大涨24仙

2016-07-29 17:18
第三季优异.全年可达标.国能一度大涨24仙
国家能源(TENAGA,5347,主板贸服组)“热钱”进袋,第三季业绩表现出色。

(吉隆坡29日讯)国家能源(TENAGA,5347,主板贸服组)“热钱”进袋,第三季业绩表现出色,分析员虽预计第四季电力需求将正常化,却判断全年业绩铁定达标,展望暂时无忧。

评估第三季业绩后,分析员一致认为国能业绩符合预期,其中部份更选择调高财测,调涨幅度介于1至11%不等,其强稳业绩展望深获看好,不少分析员继续将国能视作首选股。

业绩报捷,国能股价今日一度大涨24仙,至14令吉56仙,可惜涨幅后来收窄,闭市时只报14令吉38仙,涨6仙,成交量1918万3000股。

马银行研究指出,国能9个月净利占全年财测81至83%之间,但须留意的是税率只有9%,低于15%指标税率,因此估计税率可能在第四季上扬。

有鉴于此,马银行维持国能财测不变,国能预计在本财政年结束前宣布派息政策检讨结果。

肯纳格研究指出,国能第三季业绩固然值得一赞,却也属预料中事,因酷热天气推高了电力需求,且在热浪消退后,第四季业绩可能放缓。

国能在业绩中说,第三季电力需求扬升了6.2%,远高于前期的2.1%。

“国能料能继续享有便宜发电成本,因燃料成本继续受压,因此估计,国能将在2017财政年里继续维持电费回扣政策不变。”

联昌研究补充,第三季业绩的最大负面消息,是国能兑现了总值高达5亿2700万令吉的坏账,主要是针对钢铁业顾客,将一些客户的应收账完全注销;不过,在拨备后,未来拨备风险将变得相对低。

在2015年,国能派息率只有24%,但联昌深信国能其实有能力实现不下60%的派息率,因其资产负债率仍偏低,足以透过举债来融资各种扩张计划。

“假设派息率为6%,国能的周息率将升至6%水平,成为综指成份股中周息率最高的公司之一;因此,更高的派息率是国能的潜在催化剂。”

另外,联昌也趁机稍微上调国能财测,涨幅介于1至4%不等。

丰隆研究则上调国能财测6.9%至11.2%,原因是认为9个月业绩超越预期,且相信良好营业额和发电组合有助改善业绩。









文章来源:星洲日报/财经‧报道:李三宇‧2016.07.29

65亿泛婆大道合约待发.建筑业摩拳擦掌

2016-07-30 13:58
65亿泛婆大道合约待发.建筑业摩拳擦掌
泛婆罗洲大道接下来尚有65亿令吉项目有待颁发,建筑业大礼陆续有来。

(吉隆坡29日讯)泛婆罗洲大道合约开始发放后,至今已释出9项总值99亿令吉工程,接下来尚有65亿令吉项目有待颁发,建筑业大礼陆续有来。

给予建筑业“加码”评级的大马投行指出,除了规模庞大的泛婆罗洲大道,西马的捷运二线(MRT2)、轻快铁三线(LRT3)、新街场-淡江高架大道(SUKE)、白沙罗-沙亚南大道(DASH)也是建筑公司必抢工程。

昨日,北婆罗洲大道公司颁发新工程合约给纳因控股(NAIM,5073,主板产业组)、金务大(GAMUDA,5398,主板建筑组)及成荣集团(MUDAJYA,5085,主板建筑组)的联营公司,使分析员维持它们评级之余,调高未来两年净利预测。

不过,由于上述消息符合市场预期,相关股项今日走势并不突出。金务大以4令吉82仙平盘挂收;纳因控股和成荣集团分别下跌6仙和4仙,各报1令吉85仙和1令吉22仙。

马银行研究指出,金务大与纳因控股联营公司,取得泛婆罗州大道WPC-04工程配套,使金务大手握工程合约增加6%至87亿令吉,加强该公司盈利透明度。

金务大纳因财测上调

该行表示,金务大持有联营公司30%,它在工程价值占4亿7000万令吉,假设每股税前盈利赚幅为8%,预料它在未来4年将取得净利2900万令吉。

金务大在今年为止共取得82亿令吉的工程合约,超越马银行预测,使该行将其2017及2018年净利预测分别上调3%及5%。该行将其目标价维持在5令吉65仙,保持“买进”评级。

肯纳格研究指出,纳因控股在联营公司持有70%股权,使它占工程总值11亿令吉,使该行将其2016年新工程合约预测上调至14亿令吉(之前3亿令吉)。该行将其2016/2017年净利预测上调4%至24%,目标价上调至1令吉83仙,维持“落后大市”评级。

大众研究指出,成荣集团持有30%股权的联营公司则取得13亿2555万令吉工程合约,它所占部份约4亿令吉。

该行将其目标价上调至1令吉20仙,之前为1令吉,惟维持“中和”评级。

文章来源:星洲日报/财经‧报道:李文龙‧2016.07.30

CIMB’s Indonesian arm posts 318% jump in profit

Friday, 29 July 2016 | MYT 7:04 PM
CIMB’s Indonesian arm posts 318% jump in profit
BY M. HAFIDZ MAHPAR

KUALA LUMPUR: CIMB Group Holdings Bhd’s 97.9% owned Indonesia-based subsidiary PT Bank CIMB Niaga Tbk, boosted its unaudited consolidated net profit by 318.2% to 736 billion rupiah (RM228.4mil) for the six-month period ended June 30, 2016 (H1).

The fifth largest bank in Indonesia by assets said in a statement that the higher net profit, which translated to earnings per share of 29.29 rupiah, was due to a 4.8% rise in net interest income (NII) to 5.81 trillion rupiah (RM1.81bil), a 24.1% jump in non-interest income to 1.46 trillion rupiah (RM453mil) and a 7.9% fall in provision expense.

Its president director Tigor M. Siahaan said: “Despite the challenging environment, our H1 top line performance continued to improve. The 4.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) NII growth was recorded against a decline in interest expense, while non-interest income was 24.1% higher y-o-y due to better Treasury and capital markets businesses.”

He said CIMB Niaga maintained good control over its operating expenses which fell by 1.2% y-o-y. “In addition, the provisions for non-performing loans had gradually improved.”

As the bank retained a conservative growth strategy, total gross loans were lower y-o-y at 175.34 trillion rupiah (RM54.41bil) as at June 30.

Despite the slower overall growth in CIMB Niaga’s loans, selected business segments recorded encouraging performance. The personal and multipurpose loans business grew 9.2% y-o-y through the bank’s X-tra Dana product, while the credit card segment posted a 25.5% y-o-y growth to 7.18 trillion rupiah (RM2.23bil).

As at end June 2016, the bank had issued over 2.1 million credit cards, an increase of 13.4% from a year earlier. To date, CIMB Niaga is the third largest credit card issuer in Indonesia, in addition to being the fifth largest bank with total assets of 239.38 trillion rupiah (RM74.33bil).

Its current account savings account (CASA) grew 5.7% y-o-y to 93.21 trillion rupiah as at June 30, with the CASA ratio rising 457 basis points (bps) y-o-y to 51.99%.

The loan to deposit ratio was higher at 96.54% at end-June 2016 compared to 95.81% in the same period last year.

The Indonesian government has appointed CIMB Niaga as a perception bank assigned to accommodate funds repatriated by taxpayers who are participating in Indonesia’s tax amnesty programme.

“With additional liquidity available through the programme, the national banking industry, CIMB Niaga included, will have greater capacity to disburse loans to various sectors,” Tigor said.

CIMB Niaga’s capital adequacy ratio strengthened y-o-y to 17.62% as at June 30.

“We will continue to selectively increase our assets with a key focus on cost management and asset quality. We started 2016 on a more positive note and seen the potential of gradual improvement in the second half of the year, backed by numerous macroprudential government fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate sustainable economic growth,” added Tigor.

Friday, July 29, 2016

《巴伦周刊》:耶鲁走向亚洲与新加坡联合办学

《巴伦周刊》:耶鲁走向亚洲与新加坡联合办学
2015年03月13日 21:45 新浪财经


图为最新期《巴伦周刊》杂志封面

  导读:《巴伦周刊》最新一期封面文章称,耶鲁大学希望通过与新加坡国立大学联合办学培养亚洲新一代领导人,但能否成功要多年后看毕业生的表现才能下结论。

  耶鲁大学做了其它常青藤联盟大学未曾做过的事情,即在大洋彼岸的新加坡照自己的样子办一所新大学。

  一年半以前,耶鲁大学与声誉卓著的新加坡国立大学(NUS)联合创办的耶鲁-新大学院迎来第一批大学生。新大学以培养亚洲新一代政商两界领导人为己任。还有哪个大学比耶鲁大学更适合承担这个任务呢!美国最近的三位总统老布什、克林顿、小布什出自耶鲁大学,最高法院现任大法官三位是耶鲁校友,杰出商界领袖有贝莱德(363.37, 0.00, 0.00%)的施瓦茨曼(Stephen Schwarzman)、Liberty Media的马隆(John Malone),和百事可乐(108.13, 0.65, 0.60%)的卢英德(Indra Nooyi)。

  耶鲁大学校长沙洛韦(Peter Salovey)说:“我们的想法是耶鲁-NUS应能培养社会各领域的领导人。新加坡实验是否成功应从多年后毕业生的成功与否来衡量。他们走向最好、最专业的岗位了吗?雇主觉得他们有口才、有创造力、有团队精神嘛。衡量标准还有很多。我自己对此很乐观。”

  迄今为止各种迹象都还不错。距新加坡金融区六英里的耶鲁-新大学院现代化大学校园即将竣工。

  去年秋季大学第二批新生开始入学,下一学年的申请者如潮水般涌来。本学年该学院共招收了177名学生,耶鲁大学则招收1360名。

  在地球的另一边打造一个新耶鲁无疑是一个大胆举措,而且由此引起部分问题。一流的常青藤联盟大学教育能出口吗?通过调整常青藤联盟大学课程,耶鲁大学能向学生提供比本部更好的教育吗?

  怀疑者不少,不过我们与之交谈的教育专家至少有一位对两个问题都作了肯定回答。他是Minerva Project 的CEO尼尔森(Ben Nelson),这家风险投资公司与加州克莱蒙特学院联盟进行了倍受推崇的通识教育课程调整工作。耶鲁-新大强调研讨,要求所有学生在头两年学习差不多相同的核心课程,包括哲学、政治思想、文学、人文科学和现代社会思潮,尼尔森对此尤为欣赏。

  “耶鲁-新大的课程毫无疑问优于耶鲁大学,”尼尔森说。“至少在耶鲁-新大他们会坚定地说,我们真的认为你得掌握这些知识才配做本校毕业生。”

  另一个新举措是保证学生有夏季实习机会。等待招聘实习生的公司有法国安盛、毕马威会计事务所、媒体机构GroupM和星展银行。“很多公司都有意招聘我们的学生实习,我们的学生供不应求,”刘易斯(Pericles Lewis)说。三年前刘易斯放下英语比较文学教授教职担任耶鲁-新大首任校长。

  与新加坡联合办学的实验对耶鲁大学来说具有重要意义,因为它将决定该校将如何有效扩大其国际影响力,以及一所314年历史的名校能否走在教育革新的前列。这对亚洲也具有重要意义,因为政治经济力量增强的亚洲需要很多伟大领导人,他们最好具有通识教育的长处,熟悉文学哲学作品和历史,了解各种文化的思想方式。

  亚洲对通识教育的需求无疑很旺盛。过去十年很多美国大学来自亚洲的申请学生已经人满为患,但住宿条件所限只能接受那么多外国留学生。这也是纽约大学在上海和迪拜创办姊妹学校的原因之一。

  中国学生家长特别希望孩子接受美国精英大学通识教育。耶鲁大学现有598名本科留学生,其中58名来自中国。其实耶鲁大学通过雅礼协会与中国有着长期的关系。雅礼协会是传教士、时代杂志老编辑和耶鲁校友鲁斯(Henry Luce)在1901年与他人共同创立,已在中国开展了多个教育项目。

  联合办学是2009年1月达沃斯论坛上耶鲁大学时任校长莱文(Richard Levin)与新大校长陈祝全在一次酒会上萌生的念头。当时新大已经与多家西方大学展开了合作,比如与杜克大学合办医学院,与约翰霍普金斯大学合办音乐学院。陈校长希望扩展通识教育,以便更好地培养学生的批判思想,增强他们评估问题和找到解决办法的能力——这样的思维习惯可以通过学习史诗传统中的英雄人物角色而养成。

  这种通识教育传统标志着亚洲大学注重考试和死记硬背典型培养方式的改变。新加坡的教育是英国模式,学生在高中后过早分专业,过早决定是否从事比如说法律或医学等职业。

  当耶鲁-新大开始招生时,新加坡教育部长王宏达预计该校将对新加坡高校产生“普遍和有利的影响”。他向学生及其家长指出,批判性思维、分析和深思熟虑等通识教育特征是必要和宝贵的;该校有希望改变我们现在这个以学生回答固定问题而全球知名的教育体制,使之培养开始问正确问题找到复杂问题解决方案的学生。

  刘易斯向一家印度媒体表示,“耶鲁-新大将向新加坡人和其他亚洲人提供通常需要到美国或英国才能接受的教育,我们将与西方最优秀的大学分庭抗礼。”

  耶鲁-新大计划到2017年秋之前共招收1000名学生,包括今年入学的学生目前已有332名。 耶鲁大学从一开始便提供了很多教育支持,76名教师有六名来自耶鲁。在新加坡政府支持下,新大提供土地和承担所有成本,包括建筑、运营、人员工资和学生补助。大约两千名专家学者申请耶鲁-新大教职。

  对于耶鲁-新大学生来说,每年31600美元的学费与食宿费比耶鲁大学将近六万美元的费用少很多。新加坡学生的费用更低,一年只需18500美元。目前大约60%的学生是新加坡人,大一学生可到纽黑文的耶鲁大学游学三周。

  耶鲁-新大的学习经历将与耶鲁大学大不相同。第一学期成绩不记录在案,而耶鲁大学不是这样。虽然在美国的耶鲁大学学生从两千多门课程中选课,但头两年几乎所有学生都选择思想深邃的课程,包括亚里士多德对垒孔子、修昔底德对垒孙子的典籍阅读项目。史诗传统倒不认为多重要。学生读了印度史诗《罗摩衍那》后再去读《伊利亚特》。

  耶鲁-新大要求学生学习科学调查和量化推理。每门课程一周有一次讲座和两次研讨会。学校只设理学系、社会科学系和人文科学系三个系。每个专业都是跨学科的专业,课程是两校教师通过一年的讨论才确定下来。

  耶鲁-新大学生经过两年学习后便可在14门专业中选择一门,而耶鲁大学本部则设83个专业。每一门专业共计十几门课程可供选择。学生可在毕业前选择专修法律——这个需要再学习一年,但毕业后可以在新加坡执业——环境科学或到耶鲁大学读硕士研究生。毕业生由新加坡国立大学发放耶鲁-新大毕业证。

  名为“Week 7”的校外实习活动是耶鲁-新大课程的另一重要不同之处,这是通常到遥远地区与教授和同学进行为期一周的研究活动,比如到希腊调查名胜古迹,到泰国调查生物多样性等。

  对一些专家来说,这些课程显得不够分量。一位退休文学教授在网站查看课程内容后发现没有自己的领域。耶鲁-新大与耶鲁大学的一个重要区别是前者为通识教育大学,教师以教学为主;耶鲁大学则是一所研究型大学,很多教授是各自领域最杰出的科学家和学者。作为一首伟大的研究机构,耶鲁大学的明星教授可能没有太多时间和学生到校外实习。

  “耶鲁大学很多东西新加坡都没有,那里没有布鲁姆、没有拜内克古籍善本图书馆,也没有耶鲁大学艺术馆,”耶鲁大学一位本科生如是说,“老实说大部分时间我都不记得有这所学校。”

  不过,并没有多少迹象显示耶鲁-新大的学生所受教育打了折扣。教室较小但让师生更亲密,教师愿意在课后多待几个小时回答学生问题。师生似乎都深感身负众望,决定不辜负大家的期待。

  对耶鲁大学教师和众多校友来说,耶鲁-新大的最大问题是新加坡的政治状况。新加坡实际是由人民行动党控制下的一党制国家,拥有限制公民权利与言论出版自由的广泛权力。新加坡都有正式的体罚文化,认为男同性恋是犯罪。新加坡人基本上默认政治限制,因为这个一党制国家给他们带来了巨大的经济繁荣。很多人怀疑,在这样的政治背景下,一首自由的大学是否能够生存发展。

  耶鲁大学教师签署联名信要求大学尊重、保护和促进非歧视原则,支持校园内的公民自由和政治自由。

  耶鲁大学非洲-美国研究教授、法国人米勒(Christopher Miller)在《高等教育年鉴》发表文章,指出耶鲁-新大是一所“怪耶鲁”。他认为两所大学将共同培养出新一代顺从的、不敢持异议的管理者,与最新的全球公司董事会和达沃斯的茶话会十分相宜。按照新加坡法律,学生不得在校园组建政治团体或进行政治抗议,但可在学校讨论有争议的问题。

  新加坡政府保障该校享有学术自由,已建立常务委员会予以保障实施。耶鲁-新大有的教员是同性恋。学生在课堂讨论新加坡将同性恋归罪的法律,以及孔子对此有何看法。

  “在大学层次实现通识教育的唯一途径是确保课堂自由讨论,各方表示在耶鲁-新大就是这样,对此我深感欣慰,”刘易斯说。

  来自弗吉尼亚州的耶鲁大学大二学生苏曼(Maggie Schumann)说,“反对耶鲁-新大的很多说法都是基于耶鲁大学不应该承认新加坡政府合法性的道德评判,但作为一家教育机构,耶鲁大学的首要任务是育人,而不是承认政治合法性。”

  舒曼所言甚是,但也很难说耶鲁大学教员和校友的不平无助于耶鲁强化学术自由必要性的信念,也许还可加强耶鲁大学在与新加坡政府谈判保障学术自由时的手段。笔者1983年毕业于耶鲁大学,对母校有着深厚的感情,但对于在像新加坡这样一个压制人民的国家创办一所新大学十分担心。

  在最好的情况下,耶鲁大学在新加坡的影响可促进该国政府放松对言论、出版自由的限制,保障同性恋和其它少数群体的平等权利。这似乎不是一蹴而就的,但看起来耶鲁大学已经影响了新加坡对学术自由的立场——至少是在耶鲁-新大校园内。

  也许接触学校的学生才是对耶鲁-新大下判断的一个最好办法。他们大胆活泼、学习氛围亲密,通过共同课程及自己的开拓性经历走到一起。不用多久,更多美国大学将希望到亚洲建立,对此不要吃惊。(柠楠/编译)

Mark Hulbert - This has happened in the U.S. stock market only 13 other times since 1949

Opinion: This has happened in the U.S. stock market only 13 other times since 1949
By Mark Hulbert
Published: July 15, 2016 5:11 a.m. ET

A rare sign of strong momentum occurred over the past two weeks





CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — The stock market over the past two weeks has done something that’s occurred only 13 other times since 1949.

And following those past instances, the stock market proceeded to perform very well.

That’s according to Dan Sullivan, editor of The Chartist advisory service. Sullivan has one of the longest tenures as an investment newsletter editor of anyone still publishing today, having inaugurated his service in 1969 — 47 years ago. The Chartist is also one of the top-ranked newsletters for performance dating to 1980, which is when the Hulbert Financial Digest began monitoring the industry.

This is the feat that the stock market recently accomplished: Over the 10 trading sessions through July 12, the average number of advancing stocks on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) exceeded the average number of declining stocks by a ratio of more than two to one. Sullivan is not the only technical analyst who focuses on the advance-decline ratio, and there are many different ways to construct market-timing indicators from the raw data.

But the general idea behind Sullivan’s indicator and others like it is that “strong momentum tends to persist,” as the late Martin Zweig put it in his 1986 classic, “Winning on Wall Street.” Zweig used to edit several top-performing investment newsletters in the 1970s and 1980s; he later became the manager of a number of mutual funds. He added: “It is a sign of very strong momentum when advances overwhelm declines for a significant span.”

Sullivan says he doesn’t know if he was “the originator of the two-to-one rule, but we have been using the A/D Ratio as a measurement of thrust since the early 1970s.”

The chart above is based on data calculated by Sullivan, showing the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s DJIA, -0.09% following the 13 prior instances since 1949 in which the 10-day A/D ratio exceeded two-to-one. On average, as you can see, the Dow was 7% higher within three months, 15% higher in six months, and 20% higher in one year.

Sullivan also reports a remarkable consistency in the market’s positive reaction to prior 10-day A/D ratios above two-to-one. Over only one of the 13 three-month periods did the Dow decline, for example, and that lone loss was small — just 0.42%. At the six-month horizon, the Dow was higher in all 13 instances.

In acknowledging that this track record is “most impressive,” Sullivan added the appropriate qualification: “What has happened in the past does not necessarily translate into the future. Putting it another way, there is no such thing as a perfect indicator.”

Nevertheless, he said: “The only thing we have to go on is what has happened in the past.” And, for now at least, Sullivan is bullish on the stock market and recommending a 100% invested position.

Readers are invited to review the Hulbert Sentiment Indices or email the author.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-has-happened-in-the-us-stock-market-only-13-other-times-since-1949-2016-07-15

联营公司赢泛婆大道工程 WCT净利年增550万

WCT净利年增550万
99点看 2016年7月29日

(吉隆坡28日讯)WCT控股(WCT,9679,主板建筑股)和许甲明(KKB,9466,主板贸服股)联手赢得砂拉越州泛婆罗洲大道(Pan-Borneo highway)第一期工程,普遍在分析员预期中,故纷纷保持财测不变。

这是WCT控股今年所赢得的第2项建筑合约。

肯纳格研究中和看待此合约,因为这早已被纳入2016财年25亿令吉的新增订单的预测中,因此,不会影响2017及2018财年的财测。

以WCT控股30%的持股率来看,假设税前赚幅是8%,估计上述合约每年可贡献约550万令吉的净利。

展望未来,分析员预计,该公司可取得白沙罗淡江高速大道(SUKE)和白沙罗莎阿南疏散大道(DASH)的工程配套,各值约3.5亿至4亿令吉。

目前,该公司的外包未完成订单达41亿令吉,能提供2至3年的净利能见度。

管理层维持20亿令吉新增订单的目标,主要由捷运第二路线(MRT2)、轻快铁第三路线(LRT3)、Kwasa白沙罗(Kwasa Damansara)、敦拉萨国际贸易中心(TRX)、边佳兰的炼油与石油化工综合发展计划(RAPID)、SUKE和DASH所推动。

然而,分析员相信,该公司在末季会迎来更多合约,维持“跟随大市”的投资评级,和1.58令吉的目标价格。

惟分析员不忘点出,WCT控股仍有筹资的需求,以作为营运资本。



许甲明合约超越预期

至于许甲明,年初迄今赢得10亿令吉的合约,包括Talisman的两个平台建筑项目。

许甲明在泛婆罗洲大道合约持有70%股权,估计可从中取得6%的税前赚幅。

比起以往的20至30%的赚幅,大马研究如今的预测变得更保守,2016财年企于15%,2017及18财年则介于10至11%。

值得注意的是,该公司在2015财年的赚幅高达29%。

该公司今年所赢得的合约,已超越分析员预期,估计还会进一步得到1亿令吉的新订单。

另外,分析员估计,该公司的联号公司Oceanmight在明后财年,料能各得到1.3亿令吉的年度油气新增订单。

由于缺乏传统油气活动和新项目,许甲明首季净亏损达200万令吉,不过,分析员看好会在第三季起重拾动力。

分析员维持“买进”的投资评级,目标价格调高至2.10令吉。

SapKen bags RM510mil pipeline job

Friday, 29 July 2016
SapKen bags RM510mil pipeline job

PETALING JAYA: SapuraKencana Petroleum Bhd (SapKen) has won a major contract for the Trans Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) from TANAP Gogalgaz Iletim A.S. worth RM510mil, it announced in a filing with Bursa Malaysia.

The contract, which was won by SapKen’s subsidiary, SapuraKencana TL Offshore Sdn Bhd (SKTLO), comprises of the engineering, procurement, construction, and installation of offshore pipelines and fibre optic cables for TANAP, which is located offshore in the Dardanelles Strait in the Sea of Marmara in Turkey.

It also marks SapKen’s maiden foray into Europe as part of its global footprint. The integrated oil and gas services provider has a presence on six continents.

TANAP is a strategic natural gas pipeline project that links the two continents of Europe and Asia, supplying natural gas from the Southern Gas Corridor project in Azerbaijan through Georgia and Turkey and onwards to Europe.

The venture is 58%-owned by the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic, which is 30% owned by the state-owned Turkey BOTAS Petroleum Pipeline Corp and 12% by British Petroleum Plc.

The contract win is the second major gas pipeline job secured by SapKen this week.

Westports Q2 profit advances to RM160mil

Friday, 29 July 2016
Westports Q2 profit advances to RM160mil

PETALING JAYA: Westports Holdings Bhd net profit jumped to RM159.9mil in the second quarter ended June 30 from RM122.1mil a year ago due to an increase in container volumes.

Correspondingly, revenue also climbed to RM522.6mil from RM405.3mil last year.

For the first six months, the port operator’s net profit stood higher at RM330.9mil from RM242.3mil in 2015.

Revenue for the first half of the year chalked up to RM987.3mil against RM804mil in corresponding period last year.

Westport announced its first interim single tier dividend of 7.3 sen per ordinary share in respect of the current financial year ending with entitlement date on Aug 11. 2016

Westports’ container operations achieved another milestone by handling 4.9 million TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units) in the in the first half of this year.

Transhipment containers increased to 3.6 million TEUs while the group handled 1.3 million TEUs of gateway containers.

“Our first six months volume has been very encouraging and resilient given the modest regional economic growth during the period as we achieved another milestone by handling our highest ever interim container volume of 4.9 million TEUs.

“Westports also benefited from accommodating our shipping clients’ ad-hoc handling requirements as they introduced larger vessels into their existing container shipping services” said Westports chief executive officer Ruben Emir Gnanalingam.

Ruben pointed out that there would be realignment in the container shipping industry next year as key liners in existing container shipping alliances form new and different alliances next year.

As a terminal operator, Westports will continue to support our shipping clients’ regional transhipment requirements with cost competitive, world-class productivity level of services and also expanding container terminal facilities. “Our Phase 1 of CT8 expansion with 300-metre of wharf has commenced operations with the additional of four units of new state-of-the-art 52-metre high ship-to-shore cranes and six units of energy-efficient rubber tyred gantry cranes.

“The entire CT8 expansion will cost a total of RM1.1bil and when completed, would raise Westports’ total container terminal handling capacity to 13.5 million TEUs with our extended contiguous linear berth of 5.2 kilometers, thereby allowing the group to also support requirements of new and larger shipping alliances from 2017 onwards,” he said.

Thursday, July 28, 2016

Naim-Gamuda JV bags RM1.57b Pan Borneo Highway package

Naim-Gamuda JV bags RM1.57b Pan Borneo Highway package
By Ahmad Naqib Idris / theedgemarkets.com | July 28, 2016 : 6:18 PM MYT

KUALA LUMPUR (July 28): Naim Holdings Bhd announced that its wholly-owned unit Naim Engineering Sdn Bhd, via a joint venture (JV) with Gamuda Bhd, has won a RM1.57 billion total works package for the proposed Pan Borneo Highway.

According to a bourse filing today, the contract, awarded by Lebuhraya Borneo Utara Sdn Bhd, entails the development and upgrading of Phase 1 of the highway in Sarawak. The JV will undertake works package — WPC-04 (Pantu Junction to Btg Skrang).

The contract is for a 51-month period from the date of site possession.

"The above contract is expected to contribute positively to the earnings and net assets of the group during the tenure of the contract," said Naim.

Naim holds a 70% stake in the JV, while Gamuda owns the remaining 30%.

This is the latest award after the clinching of a RM1.29 billion package by a JV between KKB Engineering Bhd and WCT Holdings Bhd, and a RM1.36 billion contract to a JV between Bina Puri Holdings Bhd and Cahya Mata Sarawak Bhd earlier this week.

Naim fell 3 sen or 1.55% to close at RM1.91, giving a market capitalisation of RM450.19 million. Gamuda was down 5 sen or 1.03% at RM4.82, with a market capitalisation of RM11.64 billion.

What determines the returns from stocks? - investbullbear

What determines the returns from stocks? - investbullbear
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Thu, 28 Jul 2016, 01:10 PM

Thursday, 28 July 2016

Very long-run returns from common stocks are driven by two critical factors:

1. the dividend yield at the time of purchase, and,
2. the future growth rate of earnings and dividends.

In principle, for the buyer who holds his or her stocks forever, a share of common stock is worth the "present" or "discounted" value of its stream of future dividends.

A stock buyer purchases an ownership interest in a business and hopes to receive a growing stream of dividends.

Even is a company pays very small dividends today and retains most (or even all) of its earnings to reinvest in the business, the investor implicitly assumes that such reinvestment will lead to:

1. a more rapidly growing stream of dividends in the future or
2. alternatively to greater earnings that can be used by the company to buy back its stock.

The discounted value of this stream of dividends (or funds returned to shareholders through stock buybacks) can be shown to produce a very simple formula for the long-run total return for either an individual stock or the market as a whole:

LONG-RUN EQUITY RETURN
= INITIAL DIVIDEND YIELD + GROWTH RATE


From 1926 until 2010:

Common stocks provided an average annual rate of return of about 9.8%.
DY for the market as a whole on Jan 1, 1926 was 5%.
The long-run rate of growth of earnings and dividends was also about 5%.
DY + Growth rate gives a close approximation of the actual rate of return.

Over shorter periods

Over shorter periods, such as a year or even several years, a third factor is critical in determining returns.
This factor is the change in valuation relationships, namely, the change in the price-dividend or price-earnings multiple.
[P/Div and P/E tend to move (increase or decrease) in the same direction.]


Ref: A Random Walk Down Wall Street

药物测试失败‧云顶剧挫39仙

药物测试失败‧云顶剧挫39仙
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Thu, 28 Jul 2016, 05:30 PM
2016-07-28 17:13

云顶持有21%股权的TauRx药物测试结果失败,拖累云顶股价饱受沽压,但分析员认为上述计划未必全盘皆输,支撑股价投机性走扬因素“消失”,如果市场反应过度激烈,以云顶抗跌性质,不失为进场累积的时机。
(吉隆坡28日讯)云顶(GENTING,3182,主板贸服组)持有21%股权的TauRx药物测试结果失败,拖累云顶股价饱受沽压,但分析员认为上述计划未必全盘皆输,支撑股价投机性走扬因素“消失”,如果市场反应过度激烈,以云顶抗跌性质,不失为进场累积的时机。

一度大跌54仙

今日市场大力抛售云顶股票,以对这项药物测试结果失败的利空消息作出反应,云顶一度重挫54仙或6.07%至8令吉36仙,闭市挫跌39仙或4.38%至8令吉51仙,成交量达1988万8700股。凭单也受卖盘欺压,云顶WA(GENTING-WA,3182WA,凭单)一度大跌30仙或15.79%至1令吉60仙,收市报1令吉68仙,跌22仙或11.58%,成交量1959万4800单位。

昨日TauRx宣布第三期临床试验结果,显示LMTX药物仅对其他没有使用阿兹海默症药物的病人有效。

《路透社》及《华尔街日报》皆对此结果持负面看法,因为该药物无法改善病人认知能力或日常生活,但TauRx依然有意寻求当局批准LMTX为治疗阿兹海默症的单一药物,同时也不排除,美国及欧洲当局可能要求TauRx再进行更多测试。

还有3项研究结果待宣布

不过,丰隆研究觉得,此结果未必全盘皆输,而是需要更多时间研究与其他药物一起治疗引起的功能损失问题,导致价值释放计划进一步被推迟。

“最新进展让我们相信,TauRx未必全盘皆输,因为还有两期的3项研究结果在未来月份宣布。”

该药物测试共分为3期及3个临床试验,两个为阿兹海默病症药物(TRx-015 & TRx-005),另一个为行为变异额颞叶痴呆症药物(TRx-007),后者将在8月31日至9月2日的第10届国际额颞叶痴呆症峰会(ICFTD)宣布结果。

丰隆始终相信,云顶的多元化及业务拓展,如拉斯维加斯、韩国济州岛及云顶综合旅游计划(GITP)将在2017年后有结果,但价值一直被低估。

“目前因TauRx引发的投机性卖压,料为长期投资者提供一个投资这家现金丰厚公司的机会。”

鉴于未纳入TauRx估值,丰隆维持云顶财测不变。

虽然测试结果不如意,但马银行研究看好LMTX最终有望商业化,并认为该股下行风险有限,因目前已折价20%交易。

“LMTX享有单一治疗阿兹海默症的正面功效,若获当局批准为单一治疗药物,相信将令全球4千万个的阿兹海默症病人受益。”

大马投行看法比较悲观,认为这进展对云顶非常不利,主要是其股价已因药物测试结果将成功、商业化及2017年在美国上市而投机性走高。

“如今缺乏此正面消息支撑,云顶股价料失去动力,因为新加坡及英国博彩业务营运状况可能也出现疲软走势。”

云顶新加坡预订8月4日宣布业绩,大马投行根据滨海湾金沙2016财政年第二季表现预测,料存有业绩不理想风险。

在2016财政年第一季,云顶新加坡贡献云顶约45.6%获利。



文章来源:星洲日报‧财经‧报道:郭晓芳‧2016.07.28

KKB secures RM1b worth of deals YTD after latest job win

KKB secures RM1b worth of deals YTD after latest job win
By AmInvestment Bank Research / The Edge Financial Daily | July 28, 2016 : 10:56 AM MYT

This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on July 28, 2016.

KKB Engineering Bhd
(July 27, RM1.65)
Maintain buy with a higher fair value (FV) of RM2.10: We have reviewed our numbers and cut our financial year ending Dec 31, 2016 (FY16) forecast net profit of KKB Engineering Bhd by 25% to account for the lack of conventional jobs in the past six months, but raised forecast net profits of FY17 and FY18 by 3% and 55% respectively.

This follows KKB’s joint venture (JV) with WCT Holdings Bhd securing a RM1.29 billion, 51-month road main works contract for the Pan Borneo Highway in Sarawak. KKB’s 70% share of the contract amounts to approximately RM900 million. The JV received the letter of award for Package WPC-09 from the project delivery partner, Lebuhraya Borneo Utara Sdn Bhd, on Monday for the stretch from Sungai Arip Bridge to the Bintulu Airport junction. The estimated distance is about 66km.

KKB has surpassed our earlier RM200 million new-order assumption for FY16. We now assume further new orders of RM100 million for FY16 (approximately RM30 million for various pipe supply jobs already secured), RM600 million (versus RM200 million previously) for FY17 and RM200 million for FY18. We are assuming earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation margin of 6% for KKB’s 70% share of the RM1.29 billion Pan Borneo Highway contract. Our group earnings before interest and tax (Ebit) margin projections now stand at more conservative levels of 15% for FY16 and at 10% to 11% for FY17 to FY18 versus 20% to 30% previously. It posted an Ebit margin of 29% in FY15. Year to date (YTD), KKB has secured RM1 billion worth of contracts, including two ongoing platform fabrication jobs for Talisman that are scheduled to be completed by the third quarter ending Sept 30, 2017 (3QFY17).

We expect KKB’s associate Oceanmight to secure a forecast annual oil and gas order replenishment of RM130 million for each of FY17 and FY18. Looking ahead, KKB remains poised to supply guard rails, lamp posts, and water steel pipes for the Pan Borneo Highway. The group posted a 1QFY16 core net loss of RM2 million — halved that of the previous quarter, due to the lack of conventional activities and new jobs. We expect activities to pick up pace from 3QFY16 onwards.

Mitigating any downside risks is the group’s net cash position of RM139 million as at end-March 2016. We maintain our “buy” call on KKB, with a higher sum-of-parts (SoP) FV of RM2.10 per share (versus RM2 per share previously @ 5% discount to SoP), at an implied price-earnings ratio of 13 times for forecast FY17. — AmInvestment Bank Research, July 27

產业陷5年横摆期 房价急升难复见

2016年07月27日
產业陷5年横摆期 房价急升难复见




(吉隆坡27日讯)鑑于目前国內外形势,大马產业领域可能陷入4至5年的横摆週期,国內房价预测在未来4至5年內不会有急速的增长,按年成长率將呈平缓趋势。

肯纳格投行(Kenanga Investment Bank)股票研究主管林芬洁在今日的大马產业峰会中表示,大马產业市场的3项关键推动因素正出现结构改变,进而导致整个產业市场一同经歷这变化。

林芬洁认为,大马人口结构的改变、银行收紧贷款发放的条件,和消费者因经济负担能力的不同,导致国內房市供需关係错置,是目前產业领域欲振乏力,陷入衰退的主要原因。

「產业市场的兴荣与人口成长息息相关,而我们可以看到,20至29岁这段年龄层的人民现在成了大马最主要的人口结构成份,而这部份人口正是典型的首次购屋者;所以现时的首次购屋者人数已经来到顶峰,未来这数字只会跌,不会升。」


財政部估值与產业服务部门主任拿督法依占也同意,大马房价今明两年的成长率將放缓。

「虽然房价指数(HPI)现时仍然在上升,但成长趋势已经不断放缓。」

根据法依占所提供的数据,2016年第1季的房价指数成长率为6.8%,相比之下,2015年第3季与第4季的房价指数成长率则分別是7.4%与7.2%。

「我们认为,理想的房价指数成长率应落在3%至5%之间。」

在房地產市场活动方面,法依占透露,2016上半年的產业领域处於持续下滑的窘境。若根据產业种类区分,除了农业產业,住宅、商用產业、工业產业与发展產业的交易数量与交易额按年皆呈下跌趋势。

琼斯朗拉沙勒產业諮询公司全球资本市场研究总裁大卫格林摩根(左起)、大马財政部估值与產业服务部门主任拿督法依占、產业峰会大会主席艾尔文费南德兹与PPC国际董事经理拿督西德斯。

降息效应不大

「2016上半年的產业总交易量为16万3189宗,相比去年同期的18万6375宗,下跌12.44%,或2万3186宗。」

此外,林芬洁认为,国行此前降息的举动无法为房市带来显著的正面效果,因激励房市的並非贷款利率,而是贷款的流通性。

「现在看来,银行业欲降低在產业领域的贷款以將风险减少,產业相关贷款佔银行总贷款比率与其批准率自2013和2014年以来皆呈下滑趋势,不利於產业市场。」

PPC国际董事经理拿督西德斯认同此观点,並指出,银行借出贷款的条件依旧严格,房市与消费者並不会因国行降息而受惠。

林芬洁补充道,金融科技(FinTech)可能改变產业贷款活动的面貌,此领域值得注意。同时,她透露,其实大马房市的需求量依旧强劲,不过,需求量最高的房屋种类,是价格处於25万令吉至50万令吉的城市区域可负担房屋,然而,这类房產的供应仍不足应付需求。

林芬洁与法依占皆认为,可负担房屋仍是大马產业领域未来几年重点所在。

Kerjaya Prospek bags RM338.8m construction job

Kerjaya Prospek bags RM338.8m construction job
By Gho Chee Yuan / The Edge Financial Daily | July 28, 2016 : 10:17 AM MYT 
 
This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on July 28, 2016.

KUALA LUMPUR: Kerjaya Prospek Group Bhd has clinched a contract worth RM338.8 million for the main building works of the Arte Mont Kiara — a proposed mixed development in Mont Kiara via a joint venture between Nusmetro Property Sdn Bhd and Naza TTDI Sdn Bhd (Nusmetro-Naza TTDI JV).

In a filing with Bursa Malaysia yesterday, Kerjaya Prospek said its wholly-owned subsidiary Kerjaya Prospek (M) Sdn Bhd had accepted a letter of award from Nusmetro Property for the proposed job.

This confirmed a report by theedgemarkets.com earlier yesterday, which stated that the Nusmetro-Naza TTDI JV was set to award Kerjaya Prospek a contract worth over RM300 million to build the Arte Mont Kiara serviced apartments.

Kerjaya Prospek said construction works are scheduled to commence in September, with completion in October 2019. The main building works comprise simplex and duplex serviced suites and serviced residences housed within three towers that range from 58-66 storey each, and a nine-storey podium car park.

“The contract will further increase and enhance the existing order book of the company and its group of companies,” it added.

In a separate statement, Kerjaya Prospek said Arte Mont Kiara has a gross development value of RM1.2 billion. The French-retro themed project is located within Naza TTDI’s Kuala Lumpur Metropolis development, which is envisioned to be an international trade and exhibition city.

With the latest win, Kerjaya Prospek has secured contracts worth RM1.43 billion year-to-date, surpassing its internal order book replenishment target of RM600 million for 2016.

This follows a RM213.75 million construction contract it won from Yong Tai Bhd last week. The contract was for the construction of main building works of a proposed mixed development project, known as “The Apple” in Melaka.

In May, BCB Bhd appointed Kerjaya Prospek to undertake main building works for Phase 1 of The Elysia Park Residence project in Iskandar Malaysia, Johor, valued at RM312.85 million.

Shares in Kerjaya Prospek closed down one sen or 0.41% at RM2.42 yesterday, giving it a market value of RM1.23 billion.

获13亿泛婆大道合约‧WCT财测维持‧许甲明上调

2016-07-28 09:10

获13亿泛婆大道合约‧WCT财测维持‧许甲明上调

泛婆罗州高速大道再释新订单,WCT控股和许甲明工程宣布联手赢得价值12亿9000万令吉承包合约,分析员闻讯立刻上调许甲明工程2018年财测55%,WCT控股财测保持不变。

(吉隆坡27日讯)泛婆罗州高速大道再释新订单,WCT控股(WCT,9679,主板建筑组)和许甲明工程(KKB,9466,主板工业产品组)宣布联手赢得价值12亿9000万令吉承包合约,分析员闻讯立刻上调许甲明工程2018年财测55%,WCT控股财测保持不变。

根据分析员的解释,许甲明工程持有新订单70%权益,相当于9亿令吉,使中长期业绩获得保障,因此财测获上调。反观;WCT控股只持有30%股权,所占权益只有3亿8700万令吉,在分析员订单填补预料之中,财测因而不变。

大众研究指出,虽然最新赢得的订单预计使WCT控股的到手订单增至48亿令吉,未来几年业绩能见度清晰,但由于新订单仍未超越20亿令吉订单填补预估,财测保持不变。

WCT合约填补量逊去年

丰隆研究亦持相同意见,认为纳入新订单,WCT控股今年至今也仅赢得价值5亿2100万令吉订单,远逊于去年全年的30亿令吉填补量,所以将暂时维持财测不变。

不过,对比大众研究预测的48亿令吉,丰隆研究预测WCT控股目前在手订单只值38亿令吉,但仍相当于2015财政年建筑业务营业额的3.3倍。

马银行研究估计,假设税前赚幅为8%,新合约预计未来4年内替WCT控股带来2400万令吉净利,或每股1.9仙。

安联星展研究说,赢得新订单固然是正面消息,WCT控股的高负债率却仍是隐忧,已企于一倍水平。

“虽然该公司描述了系列解决方案,如资产套现、私下配售、产托化和让建筑臂膀上市等,但时机和执行情况仍不明朗。此外,该公司今年设定的6亿令吉产业销售目标,截至上半年也只达成30%。”

许甲明手握10亿订单

至于许甲明工程,大马研究表示在顺利赢得泛婆罗州大道合约后,该公司的今年攫获的订单总额已达10亿令吉,远超原先估计的2亿令吉,同时相信下半年还能再赢得一亿令吉新合约。

下半年料再攫一亿合约

有鉴于此,大马研究上调许甲明工程2017年财测3%,2018年财测则调高55%,以反映新合约贡献。不过,由于过去6个月订单填补速度缓慢,短期业绩难有突破,2016年财测遭下砍25%。

大马研究估计上述订单的营运赚幅为6%。

“此外,许甲明工程也有意争取成为泛婆罗州大道的供应商,供应护栏、灯柱和水管等产品。”该行补充,许甲明工程今年首季虽报200万令吉核心亏损,但预计业务活动从今年第三季起升温,其持有的1亿3900万令吉净现金也减低了下行风险。

配合中期财测上调,大马研究上调许甲明工程目标价至2令吉10仙,给予“买进”评级。



90亿工程陆续颁发

另一方面,泛婆罗州大道计划两天内释出近27亿令吉工程合约,分析员对此不感意外,并预计剩余价值90亿令吉的6个工程配套将很快出炉,捷运二线(MRT2)和轻快铁3也预计将捎来好消息。

在WCT控股和许甲明工程赢得12亿9000万令吉合约的前一天,高峰控股(BPURI,5932,主板建筑组)和砂州日光(CMSB,2852,主板工业产品组)已率先联手拿下泛婆罗州大道价值14亿令吉工程订单。

大马研究直言,近期新闻已报道泛婆罗州大道的剩余配套工程料在7月杪前陆续公布;以过去两天的合约颁布情况分析,剩余配套料很快出炉。

“剩余6个配套,我们看好纳因控股(NAIM,5073,主板产业组)—金务大(GAMUDA,5398,主板建筑组)联营公司、亿马建筑(IKHMAS,5268,主板建筑组)—Titanium联营公司有机会突围。”

其他值得注意的受惠建筑股还包括怡保工程(IJM,3336,主板建筑组),、马资源(MRCB,1651,主板产业组)、双威建筑(SUNCON,5263,主板建筑组)和成荣集团(MUDAJYA,5085,主板建筑组)。

整体而言,大马研究保持建筑业“超越大市”评级不变,继续看高各类大道和大型基建计划继续为领域注入更多活水。

文章来源:星洲日报‧财经‧报道:李三宇‧2016.07.28

周顯﹕股市轉勢 先價後量

周顯﹕股市轉勢 先價後量
文章日期:2016年7月28日

【明報專訊】近日股市連漲,但成交不見有大發展,散戶還是未肯入場,不消說的,細價股還是未當炒,我們一眾朋友,都無嘢炒,一些股票炒高兩日,自己打番一千幾百萬成交,但發現沒有散戶跟,唯有收手不幹,任由股票回跌,連莊家都白白不見了幾百萬,散戶可想而知。

我們一伙朋友,已經很久沒有贏錢,如果不是略有積蓄,已經乞米了。不過都仲有人買新車,正是窮風流餓快活也。至於我本人,都有……睇新車,睇吓唔畀咩?仲有問價㖭!不過齋問無買之嘛!

如果問我對後市看法,我會滑頭地答你一個理論上的答案,但卻會迴避開正面而肯定的答覆。畢竟,周顯大師是理論大師,務虛是專長,務實卻並不在行,所以我總能教出比自己更高明的學生,正是因為理論造詣深不可測也。這好比中國的「三朝國師」王滬寧,歷任江澤民、胡錦濤、習近平三個年代的中央政策研究室主任,這正是講理論而不講實務的優點也。

掌握理論 推演也可錯

理論是,請記着以下的基本原理﹕在樓市,永遠是先跌成交,再跌樓價,升市時,也是先升成交,再升樓價。在股市,則是先跌股價,再跌成交,升市時,則是先升價格,再升成交。

如果要再跳高一層,即是高一個抽象層次去解說以上的現象,則是一句話﹕流通性強的商品是先動價格,再動成交,反之則不然,這法則普遍存在於不同的投資產品,包括貨幣、貴金屬、農產品、股票、房地產,甚至是鑽石、名畫,統統包含在內。

以上的就是理論,不是實務,不過所有的實務,都可以從理論上推理出來,但道行高的,推理正確,道行低的,推理錯誤,但周顯大師的理論卻是不會錯的,雖然他的推理也不時會錯,這正如愛因斯坦用他的相對論去推理日蝕時,也出錯了。

[周顯 投資二三事]

http://www.mpfinance.com/fin/columnist2.php?col=1463481127012&node=1469646852837&issue=20160728

Scaffolding: A New Tharp Think Concept by Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.

Feature Article
DR
Scaffolding: A New Tharp Think Concept
by Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.


One of my Super Traders is almost finished with the program and just submitted his three trading systems for approval. His three different systems each trade a particular market under various conditions. There was nothing unusual about his systems until we got to his SQNSM scores — they were all in the “Holy Grail” range — mostly above 10. Now those results were based on paper trading and thus they could change considerably with real money. Actually, I am somewhat skeptical about him achieving those SQN scores in the live market. Nevertheless, I had him take me through his systems’ trades bar by bar and I was impressed. In the process of going through his systems, it suddenly dawned on me that he had developed “scaffolding” that supported his systems. I now believe that idea of a good scaffolding structure might be what makes the difference.

The idea of scaffolding comes from Dr. Ken Long, who has been teaching technical workshops for us for nearly 20 years. His Core Trading course and Swing Trading course are both available online as e-learning courses. He also teaches a number of workshops here with Day Trading and Live Day Trading workshops coming up in November. Two weeks back, he taught two new workshops — Advanced Adaptive Swing Trading and Systems Thinking for Traders. I mention all of these courses and workshops to show you the breadth of Ken’s trading knowledge as well as to point out that all of them are about trading systems except one — Systems Thinking.

Why did I ask Ken to develop the Systems Thinking for Traders workshop?

Ken has a unique systems thinking oriented approach to the markets and to trading. About 80% of the general population, however, lack a systems thinking mindset. I believe all of the Super Traders have the potential to develop their abilities in this area so that’s part of the reason I asked Ken to teach a workshop about systems thinking. Based on the insights I gained and based on the feedback forms, the workshop was very useful for helping the traders in attendance understand a systems thinking approach to the markets.

Ken is a true systems thinker. He earned a master’s degree in Systems Management and his Ph.D. dissertation was about decision making under uncertainty. During the recent three day workshop, he covered many systems thinking concepts but I want to focus on just one right now — the concept of scaffolding. Ken defines scaffolding as:
A structure that one builds to support other activities. Good scaffolding is light-weight, adaptable, flexible, durable, modular, multipurpose, cost-effective, and provides both structure and security.
Scaffolding is useful across a wide variety of typical problems or opportunity areas in business, education, the military, etc. In construction for example, scaffolding can be used to fix a roof, wash windows, paint a wall and all sort of other things. Using the metaphor in trading, you can set up various rules to serve as your scaffolding.

Here is one way that the idea of scaffolding might apply in the trading context:
  1. You can look at prior highs, lows, supports, and resistances on various time frames.
  2. These can be used to set up risk levels and targets.
  3. When you have both of those elements of a trade, you can make informed decisions based upon your potential reward-to-risk levels — which should be at least 2 to 1.
Ken constantly monitors the market type, the opening gap size, the daily range, and other statistics which help him develop probabilities for price to move to certain points. All of this data helps him make information-based reward to risk rules and decisions. We know that these concepts are just made up but they support strong decision making so they are very useful.

Let’s look at another example of some scaffolding you could create to help you manage your general reward and risk relationship:
  1. Never lose more than 1R,
  2. Attempt to make at least 2R in every trade, and
  3. In an open trade, never put yourself in a position in which your potential risk is bigger than your remaining potential reward.
So what’s the scaffolding here? Well, these three Tharp Think principles support your trading well and provide you some security. The Tops Tasks of Trading are another form of scaffolding — they help you prevent and eliminate mistakes. A structure that helps you define the specific reward to risk ratio in each trade is scaffolding also.

Here’s an example of that last point. About 10-12 years ago, D.R. Barton and Christopher Castroviejo taught a technical workshop on e-mini futures trading. Part of their approach was to build a ladder of critical prices using a combination of pivot points, Fibonacci numbers, highs, lows, and other signs of support and resistance. At the time, I thought the approach was too discretionary so we stopped giving that workshop. When you think about their price ladder as scaffolding, however, it makes more sense. That ladder gave them a framework to define their risk and their potential targets (potential reward).

So here is a new Tharp Think principle:
Develop scaffolding to support your trading, especially your decisions about reward-to-risk. Scaffolding might be the difference between a Holy Grail system versus a useful, tradable system.
Ken and I are going to co-teach one more Systems Thinking Workshop in December 2016 as part of the Super Trader Summit. At that presentation, we’ll cover the topic of scaffolding in more detail because I want the Super Traders to really "get it." If you aren’t a Super Trader but want to learn more about how systems thinking can help you trade better, don’t worry, we are going to record this workshop and offer it as an e-learning course sometime in the first half of 2017. Then, you can learn about scaffolding and all of the other important systems thinking approaches that will give you new edges for your trading.

About the Author: Trading coach and author Van K. Tharp, Ph.D. is widely recognized for his best-selling books and outstanding Peak Performance Home Study Program — a highly regarded classic that is suitable for all levels of traders and investors. You can learn more about Van Tharp at www.vantharp.com. His new book, Trading Beyond The Matrix, is available now at matrix.vantharp.com.

Takaful Malaysia’s 2Q net profit rises 16.9% to RM45.53m

Takaful Malaysia’s 2Q net profit rises 16.9% to RM45.53m
By Gho Chee Yuan / theedgemarkets.com | July 27, 2016 : 6:05 PM MYT

KUALA LUMPUR (July 27): Syarikat Takaful Malaysia Bhd's net profit for the second quarter ended June 30, 2016 (2QFY16) rose 16.9% to RM45.53 million or 5.55 sen per share, mainly attributable to higher wakalah fee income.

The company, which is 60.25%-owned by Lembaga Tabung Haji's subsidiary BIMB Holdings Bhd, posted a net profit of RM38.95 million or 4.78 sen per share for 2QFY15.

Revenue came in 6.6% higher at RM462.21 million versus RM433.53 million in 2QFY15, mainly attributable to higher sales generated by both the family takaful and general takaful business, the company said in a filing to Bursa Malaysia today.

No dividend was declared for the quarter.

For the first half of the financial year ended Dec 31, 2016 (1HFY16), Takaful Malaysia’s net profit gained 8.2% to RM92.16 million or 11.27 sen per share from RM85.17 million or 10.45 sen per share a year earlier, underpinned by higher wakalah fee income.

Revenue rose 9.4% to RM1.09 billion from RM995.99 million in 1HFY15, also due to higher sales generated by both the family takaful and general takaful business.

On prospects, Takaful Malaysia said it will continue its value proposition of rewarding its customers with 15% cash back for general takaful products and establish a strong foothold in the local insurance and takaful arena, as the preferred choice for insurance.

"The successful implementation of core initiatives in operational excellence, technology driven capabilities, product innovation and performance-oriented culture will enable us to be ahead of our competitors, increase our overall market shares and continuously improve shareholders' value," it added.

Takaful Malaysia shares closed unchanged at RM4 today, for a market capitalisation of RM3.28 billion.

Wednesday, July 27, 2016

(Icon) CIMB - Undervalued. But Patience Required

(Icon) CIMB - Undervalued. But Patience Required
Author: Icon8888 | Publish date: Wed, 27 Jul 2016, 09:36 PM

1. Introduction

CIMB used to trade as high as RM8.70 back in May 2013. It is currently trading at RM4.29 (51% lower).



The downtrend was caused by decline in profitability. In 2013, CIMB reported net profit of RM4.54 billion. In the latest financial year, its profit had declined by 40% to RM2.85 billion.

Annual Result:
F.Y.Revenue ('000)Profit Attb. to SH ('000)EPS (Cent)PEDPS (Cent)DYNAPSROE (%)
2015-12-31 15,395,790 2,849,509 33.62 13.51 14.00 3.08 4.8100 6.99
2014-12-31 14,145,924 3,106,808 37.48 14.84 15.00 2.70 4.4400 8.44
2013-12-31 14,671,835 4,540,403 59.97 12.71 23.82 3.13 3.9200 15.30
2012-12-31 13,494,825 4,344,776 58.45 13.06 23.38 3.06 3.8100 15.34

The stock looked interesting as it is currently trading at Price to Book Ratio of 0.88 times. A banking group like CIMB should trade at at least 1.5 times when its earnings recovers.

(When come to banking stocks, the Market has been quite fair and rational. The higher the ROE, the higher the valuation multiples).

The purpose of this article is to try to understand what are the major factors dragging down CIMB's earning in recent years and to try to have a feel of whether it will be turning around soon.

2. Historical Profitability



Key observations :-

(a) Loan impairment was the main reason CIMB's performance deteriorated over the years. In FY2012 and 2013, impairment charges were 6.1% and 11.7% of profit before impairment respectively. However, in FY2014 and 2015, it increased to 29.1% and 37.7% respectively.

(b) Indonesia subsidiary CIMB Niaga accounted for the bulk of the bad loan spike.



As shown in table above, in FY2012 and 2013, only about 3% of CIMB Niaga's loans were impaired. However, in FY2014 and 2015, that has increased to 4.6% and 6.3% respectively.

Compared to Indonesia, Malaysia and other regions had been managing their loan books well with impairment of 2% plus in FY2014 and 2015.

According to the company, collapse of commodity prices was the main reason for the spike in Indonesia bad loans. Indonesia relied quite heavily on commodity export. The downturn caused many borrowers to get into difficulties.

(c) In a recent interview with The Star, the CEO of CIMB expects Indonesia operation to perform better in second half of 2016.





(d) To improve performance, CIMB launched a campaign in 2015 called T18 (Target 2018) to revamp its operation. Among the measures to be put in place is reduction in overhead. The group's Cost to Income ratio has inched up in FY2015. The group targets to bring it down to 50% by 2018 (The group retrenched more than 3,000 employees in 2015 through a Mutual Separation Scheme).


3. Concluding Remarks

(a) By virtue of its 0.88 times PBR, I believe that CIMB is undervalued at current price of RM4.29. However, re-rating will only happen if its earnings improve.

(b) As mentioned above, the main reason the group's profitability has declined so much is because of non perfoming loans of its Indonesia subsidiary. After going through two rough years, there are signs that the Indonesia economy is making a come back. CIMB's CEO has hinted of better performance in second half of 2016. Will that materialise ? We can only find out over time.

(c) The reason I invested in CIMB is because I believe it has limited downside. I do not have high expectation for this stock. If it can deliver 20% return for me by end of 2016 (Target Price of RM5.20), I will be very happy.

次季净利挫64%‧东益电子获利能见度蒙尘

次季净利挫64%‧东益电子获利能见度蒙尘
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Wed, 27 Jul 2016, 06:12 PM
016-07-27 17:28

东益电子第二季净利按年下挫64%,获利能见度蒙尘,分析员大砍该公司财测,并大幅调低评级和目标价。
(吉隆坡27日讯)东益电子(GTRONIC,7022,主板科技组)第二季净利按年下挫64%,获利能见度蒙尘,分析员大砍该公司财测,并大幅调低评级和目标价。

股价跌20仙

受到业务表现不佳拖累,该公司股价也应声下挫,最低一度下挫6.42%或21仙,后来跌幅收窄,以3令吉7仙挂收,全天下跌6.12%或20仙。

马银行研究表示,由于计时器件(QCTD)以及感应器的需求和平均销售价格减少、新设备高折旧率等因素,下调该公司2016年至2018年财测,分别调低45%、27%及27%。

QCTD销售不如逾期

马银行却补充,该公司近期展望迷茫,获利能见度引人关注。

东益电子第二季表现疲弱,主因是QCTD部门其销售并不如逾期,营运资本开销以及税务也比之前预测高。

艾芬黄氏研究同样下调该公司2016至2018年的每股盈利,分别为26%、7.3%及5.1%。

安联星展研究与上述两者看法较为不同,只下调其2016年财测21%,但认为该公司2017年以后表现有待该公司资本开销是否有更清楚指引,也就是说该公司是否会推出更新产品,如:动作感应器、3D图像感应器等。

但该公司距离感应器(Proximity sencor)的生产量与第一季从每月1300万件下跌至1000万件,生产率也只有45%,原因是来自瑞士的主要大客户正在消化之前库存。另外,该产品赚幅也从第一季16%下跌至目前的12%。

不过安联星展认为,投资者所担心东益电子瑞士主要客户是否会转换供应商一事,根据该行观察,该情况发生可能性很小。

这是因为,接着即将推出新型智能手机,仍会使用原有感应器晶片,谣传瑞士客户将转换客户感应晶片是应用于2017年产品。其二,2017年将推出的新距离感应器产品是该公司和瑞士客户AMS公司一同设计的。

安联星展也认为,今年第四季是一个观察该公司2017年业务走向的好机会,基于以下两点。第一,动作感应功能是否会运用在最新手机上;其二,该公司是否会增加其资本开销,以投入更多资源在开发新的感应器上。



文章来源:星洲日报‧财经‧报道:傅文耀‧2016.07.27

Top Glove’s Ebitda margin expected to recover

Top Glove’s Ebitda margin expected to recover
By HLIB Research / The Edge Financial Daily | July 27, 2016 : 10:38 AM MYT 
 


This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on July 27, 2016.

Top Glove Corp Bhd
(July 26, RM4.30)
Maintain buy with a lower target price (TP) of RM5.27: In Top Glove Corp Bhd’s third quarter ended May 31, 2016 (3QFY16), nitrile butadiene rubber (NBR) gloves experienced increased competition with pricing under pressure. Average selling price (ASP) for nitrile gloves fell 17% year-on-year, leading to a low gross profit margin of 16% versus that of natural rubber gloves at 18%.

Nevertheless, with the delay in some capacity expansion in the nitrile segment, ASP for NBR gloves has recently stabilised with an upward revision of 5% since May. With the revision in ASP, we expect earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) margin to recover from 14% in 3QFY16 to a normalised level of 17% to 18%. Upcoming 4QFY16 results should see quarter-on-quarter earnings improve marginally with notable earnings recovery from 1QFY17 onwards.

Top Glove continues to intensify its efforts to improve efficiency by implementing the automation process and manufacturing its own formers (approximately 40% of own requirement of formers will be fulfilled). In terms of merger and acquisition opportunities, the company has not ruled out future acquisitions of a small condom maker and a surgical glove player.

On its capacity expansion plan, the F27 Lukut plant will be fully commissioned in November this year with an additional two billion production capacity for NBR gloves. Total capacity is expected to increase by 14% in the financial year ending Aug 31, 2017 (FY17) after inclusion of the partially commissioned F30 factory. A key risk to the expansion plan is the difficulty in securing foreign workers.

Top Glove is trading at an undemanding valuation of 15 times calendar year 2016 (CY16) price-earnings ratio (PER), below five-year average PER of 16 times, compared with peers’ 18 times, as the share price has overshot on the downside after the weak 3QFY16 results. We see the worst is over and earnings should recover with the upward adjustment in ASP and easing of raw material prices.

Among the risks to take note of are: i) further reduction in ASP amid steep competition; ii) surge in nitrile and latex prices; and iii) weaker US dollar against ringgit. In our forecasts, FY16 and FY17 earnings are reduced by 6% and 2% respectively as we factor in slower-than-expected margin recovery. From a valuation perspective, Top Glove is still the most attractive rubber glove stock among our coverage.

We maintain “buy” with TP lowered to RM5.27 based on an unchanged PER multiple of 18 times CY17 earnings per share post earnings adjustment. — HLIB Research, July 26

撙节7.5亿‧油价回稳‧沙肯石油有望转盈

撙节7.5亿‧油价回稳‧沙肯石油有望转盈
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Wed, 27 Jul 2016, 10:16 AM

2016-07-27 09:08
沙肯石油持续成本撙节,放眼每年节约7亿5000万令吉,并随国际油价回扬,有希望今年可转亏为盈。
(吉隆坡26日讯)沙肯石油(SKPETRO,5218,主板贸服组)持续成本撙节,放眼每年节约7亿5000万令吉,并随国际油价回扬,有希望今年可转亏为盈。

油价在35至40美元可获利

沙肯石油总裁兼集团首席执行员拿丹斯里沙里尔三苏丁在股东大会后表示,公司去年成本节约为5亿令吉,希望今年成本撙节可额外提升2亿5000万令吉,届时公司每年可节约的成本将走高至7亿5000万令吉。

他表示,公司的盈利取决于油价,而公司无法控制油价,因此只能成本撙节以提升营运表现。

他说:“公司将国际油价设定在35至40美元,只要油价处于上述水平,就可以持续获利。”国际油价目前企于44美元左右。

沙里尔三苏丁也表示,该公司去年做出了约20亿令吉的拨备,导致2016财政年亏损,但今年首季,公司已经取得净利,期望今年仍可以保持正面的发展。

沙肯石油2016年财政年税后亏损7亿9100万令吉。截至今年4月30日为止,该公司首季营业额及净利报19亿4144万4000令吉及1亿1031万1000令吉,各跌14.03%及57.69%。

手握198亿未执行合约

有关未执行合约方面,他则表示,公司目前手握198亿令吉未执行合约,竞标中的合约则为70亿美元(约284亿令吉)。

“公司每年消耗约50亿令吉的合约,因此公司每年的替补合约目标也是50亿令吉,这样方能维持公司的业绩表现。”

他也表示,公司目前的现金从19亿4800万令吉,增加至23亿3900万令吉;负债比则从1.34倍走低至1.27倍,希望未来可降低至1倍。

有关国家石油公司(Petronas)终止Berantai油田的风险服务合约方面,他则表示,该合约终止并不会对公司造成任何负面影响,且国油会把相关资本开销提前给公司。“国油将上述合约交由本身的子公司执行,在商场上而言,有利于国油降低成本。”



攫墨4.6亿合约看好

沙肯石油周一攫取墨西哥坎佩切州卡门城的含硫天然气管道合约,总值为4亿6100万令吉。

一众分析员正面看待上述合约,丰隆研究表示,该公司首季工程与建筑(E&C)营运赚幅为8%,预期上述合约可获得一定盈利。大众研究预期沙肯石油的E&C的长期合约将驱动该公司业务成长。

达证券预期,该公司2017及2018年的E&C合约价值规模报23亿及25亿令吉,并调高该公司2017至2019年的净利预测,介于1亿2900万至3亿9100万令吉。

MIDF研究说,只要国际油价维持在45至50美元左右,该公司的基本面可获得改善。

文章来源:星洲日报‧财经‧2016.07.27

购屋者信心回扬‧产业股可获重估

2016-07-26 17:09
购屋者信心回扬‧产业股可获重估

联昌研究指出,大部份基金经理虽然仍减持大马产业股,但对该领域的投资情绪有所改善,随着发展商将推出更多针对大众市场的新盘,加上购屋者信心提升,该行相信产业销售可望在下半年复苏,到时产业股价格将获重估。

(吉隆坡26日讯)联昌研究指出,大部份基金经理虽然仍减持大马产业股,但对该领域的投资情绪有所改善,随着发展商将推出更多针对大众市场的新盘,加上购屋者信心提升,该行相信产业销售可望在下半年复苏,到时产业股价格将获重估。

联昌研究在上周四和周五向约20名基金经理和分析员推介大马产业领域后发表报告指出,大部份基金在投资组合中仍然减持产业股,但该行觉察到,整体投资情绪比3月杪举行巡回展时已有所改善。

该行这次会见的投资者已减少担心产业泡沬的风险,一些投资者甚至相信,最坏时刻可能已过去。

“近期推出的新盘获得强劲认购率,肯定已改善投资者对产业需求的印象,消除了可能会有产业大抛售的忧虑。”

该行预期发展商在接下来将推出更多针对大众市场的产业,由于过去数年大众市场的产业供应不足,因此预期这些产业可取得良好认购率。而强劲的认购率将进一步改善产业股的投资情绪。

不过,投资者目前仍然减持产业股,因短期内产业销售仍缺乏强劲催化因素。

选择高周息率股项

对于担心掉入价值陷阱但有意投资于产业的投资者,该行建议可选择具优渥周息率和强劲管理的产业股,因这些股项提供稳定回酬,以及在产业需求复苏时,股价将走高。这些股项包括了林木生集团(LBS,5789,主板产业组)、马星集团(MAHSING,8583,主板产业组)和UOA发展(UOADEV,5200,主板产业组)。

尽管绿盛世(ECOWLD,8206,主板产业组)的预期周息率低于1%,但仍保持为联昌研究的首选产业股。该行相信绿盛世提供最大的股价上升空间,因为它是该行所分析的产业股中杠杆、财务和营运最佳的股项。

联昌保持“加码”产业领域的评级,该行认为,在购屋者信心改善和发展商推出更多大众化产业的带动下,产业销售有望在下半年复苏,这将可令产业股价格获得重新评级。至于产业领域的主要下跌风险则是经济突然受重创。


文章来源:星洲日报‧财经‧报道:李勇坚‧2016.07.26

AWC secures RM12.67mil Cyberjaya project

Tuesday, 26 July 2016 | MYT 2:26 PM
AWC secures RM12.67mil Cyberjaya project

KUALA LUMPUR: AWC Bhd’s wholly owned subsidiary, M&C Engineering and Trading Sdn Bhd has secured a contract worth RM12.67mil for an education hub located in Cyberjaya.

In a statement Tuesday, AWC said the contract was to execute and complete the supply, delivery, installation, testing and commissioning of the air conditioning and mechanical ventilation services, electrical and lightning protection services and extra low voltage service packages.

The project will commence immediately with a targeted completion date of August 17, 2017.

This project is part of the Education Hub in Cyber 11, Cyberjaya. The project is for the construction of a private college to be built on a piece of land measuring about four acres.

When completed, the facility will house an administration block, an academic block with comprehensive facilities, cafe, library and surau facilities (including car park facilities). The subcontract represents the first phase in the development of this overall education hub.

“This contract win outlines the capabilities of our engineering division and the hard work that we have put in. The group’s year-to-date contract wins have totalled approximately RM1bil and we expect these contracts to contribute significantly to the group’s earnings going forward,” AWC managing director and group CEO Datuk Ahmad Kabeer said in the statement.

Tuesday, July 26, 2016

Stocks in Watch List - Bursa Dummy

Stocks in Watch List - Bursa Dummy
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Tue, 26 Jul 2016, 10:27 AM

Monday, 25 July 2016

I have stayed out of the stock market temporarily since February this year after Chinese New Year. However, it doesn't mean that I am totally out of it.

It's true that I didn't read a lot of market news. I seldom check the price and news of companies in my watch list, and didn't watch the stock market live in action.

I do check the price and announcement of the stocks in my portfolio but not on daily basis. I still summarize my portfolio performance every month, even though I wrote and published them late. I seldom log into my blog as well as I have limited time to write.

Five months have passed now and year-to-date my portfolio is at negative 13%. So I have a mountain to climb if I were to achieve a 30% annual return for 2016. Is it possible?

I think I should be grateful if my portfolio can end this year in positive territory.

Recently I just checked the share price movement of all the stocks in my watch list & alert list. Some stocks really surprise me.

A few stocks have gone up recently and some stocks have dropped to my previous targeted entry level. Should I consider to buy now?


Even though I am not close to the stock market in this period of time, I still know that Airasia and Airasia X which are not in my watch list, have generated substantial interest among investors and as a result, their share prices have already doubled this year.

For the first half of this year, I only bought 2 stocks which are KESM and TekSeng. There are few other stocks that I seriously consider to buy early this year, they are SAM, PRLEXUS, TGUAN & SUPERLON.

Of course I did not buy them until now, as I hope to limit export-orientated stocks in my portfolio. Besides Prolexus, all the other 3 have gained significantly especially TGuan, which has left me punching my own chest.



Construction sector seems to rock at the moment, with impressive share price performance in KERJAYA (Fututech), GADANG, GKENT & MITRA.However,MUDAJYA, JAKS & PTARAS seem to lag behind.



May be I should have bought Gadang when I wrote about it in September last year. It was like a no-brainer bet at RM1.18 then, but I missed it... and missed a chance for a 100% gain in less than a year.



On the other hand, plantation and property sectors, as widely expected, are as cold as ice this year.

Besides those construction companies mentioned earlier, I still have 3 others property-related stocks in my watch list, they are MKH, PARAMON & WEIDA. MKH's share price seems to do well but not the other two.



SIGN, whose performance should be closely linked to property sector, seems to recover a bit from slump in share price in early 2016.

For plantation, I have MKH, CBIP, BUMITAMA & FIRST RES. First Resources has its share price fallen quite a lot but I'm still hesitating whether I should start to accumulate it.



I only follow three O&G related stocks which are COASTAL, FAVCO & PANTECH, even though all of them are not genuine O&G stocks. Their share prices do not perform well in the first half of 2016 as crude oil price still stays relatively low below USD50.



The stock that surprise me a lot is YOCB in which its share price suddenly soars 50% in the last 2 months from 90sen to RM1.35. I have sold all its shares in Dec 2014 at 98sen but now market decides to give it higher PE ratio.



Another stock that makes me wonder is ULICORP, I don't quite understand why its share price can keep on climbing. I still have not study this stock in detail even though it's always in my watch list.

I placed OCK in my watch list because of its venture into Myanmar. Its share price has moved up since Mac16.

On tech related stocks, UNISEM, MMSV & PENTA have made significant gain recently. One of my customer who works in Penta told me some time in Q4 last year that they received lots of orders and have to work extra hard. I guess its subsequent quarterly result should be good.




I always hope to have a healthcare-related stocks in my portfolio. Both ADVENTA & YSPSAH's share price have retreated from their height and could it be a buying opportunity?




Other export-orientated stocks that do not perform quite well up to this time include CHINWEL, HOMERIZ, KAREX, LCTH, LUXCHEM, MAGNI & WELLCAL.




MIKROMB's share price also dropped a bit. This stock is quite "steady" and will be promoted to main board sooner or later.

As I have one logistic stock in my portfolio, I also watchCENTURY & TASCO more closely. All 3 stocks are trading sideways at the moment and don't seem to benefit a lot from low oil price.

For consumer stocks, share prices of PADINI, SCGM & WANGZNG have made a move upwards, while TEOSENG & YEELEE still remain almost the same compared to March this year.



Those are the stocks in my watch list which has not been updated for almost half a year. I'm sure that some of them are already "outdated" and there are many new potential stocks emerging now.

Year-to-date, I get the feeling that Malaysia's stock market does not perform too well. However, investors can still make money anytime in a stock market, as long as they can pick the correct stock at the right time.

Not only at the right time, but also at the right price too.

http://bursadummy.blogspot.my/2016/07/stocks-in-watch-list.html

KOSSAN RUBBER INDUSTRIES BERHAD - Safe and Strong

KOSSAN RUBBER INDUSTRIES BERHAD - Safe and Strong
Author: PublicInvest | Publish date: Tue, 26 Jul 2016, 09:23 AM

Our recent meeting with Kossan’s management reaffirmed our belief that Group’s expansion plans and operational improvements are on track. We believe our Outperform recommendation for Kossan will be supported by i) continuous improvements in productivity and efficiencies through R&D initiatives, reflected through its growing margins over the years (from 7.6% in 1QFY12 to 12.4% in 1QFY16 - Figure 1), ii) diverse product range, and iii) most of the additional capacities for new products contribute by FY18 onwards.

Widening product mix. Under immense competition, Kossan continues to improve their products to differentiate themselves. For instance, they introduced and patented its latest “accelerator free” nitrile glove, which minimizes latex protein and chemical allergies. We are also positive on other new innovative offerings which are expected to be launched by end-2016.

Continuously improving efficiencies. To recap, Kossan formed a JV company, Aseptapak (M) Sdn Bhd with its UK partners, to acquire the latest technology in automated packaging machine since February. This new automated packaging machine with advanced technological features will be adopted in its upcoming plant. Some of these features include contamination prevention during the dispensing process. Together with automation, Kossan’s new plant will feature higher speed production lines which only requires a third of the number of workers versus its old plants. We are encouraged by this move as the group can re-designate its workers to other areas and thus would be less impacted by the shortage of workers issue following the Government’s policy to freeze hiring foreign workers. Kossan’s target is to further reduce headcount from 2.9 workers per million gloves to 2.2 workers per million gloves by FY18.

Capacity expansion. All existing plants are currently running at maximum capacity (above 80% utilization rate) and have thus limited the Group’s ability to take on additional orders for its new products. Kossan is therefore planning to double its current capacity to 43.0bn pcs over the next five years. 3.0bn nitrile gloves capacity is targeted to commence in 3QFY17, while another plant housing 4.5bn pcs capacity will begin construction by end-2016 and targeted to complete by 1QFY18. Total capex is estimated to be RM120-150m/year. The prudent expansion plans also includes upgrading its older lines on a staggered basis once the new capacity comes on-stream.

Source: PublicInvest Research - 26 Jul 2016

[转贴] 【义利无双】- 红牛带动YEELEE(5584)屡创高峰,最新季度营业额以及盈利破新高!- Harryt30

[转贴] 【义利无双】- 红牛带动YEELEE(5584)屡创高峰,最新季度营业额以及盈利破新高!- Harryt30
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Tue, 26 Jul 2016, 01:12 PM

Tuesday, July 26, 2016

YEELEE(5584)在FY2014的盈利相比FY2013年大约下跌了将近 20%。不过公司的盈利在Redbull开始做出贡献之后,全年盈利从FY2014的27.013 mil进步到FY2015的31.912 mil。而且2016Q1的Profit Margin更是从4%提升到4.6%, 可见RED BULL的代理为YEELEE带来了不菲的收入。

以下是YEELEE的一些功课课供大家参考。


YEELEE在2014年每个季度的营业额介于165 - 180 mil之间。可是在2015年改善到177 - 238 mil,最新季度的营业额更是创下了252 mil的新高。

而Net Profit更是在最新两个季度突破了10 mil的大关,假设今年都可以维持在10 mil的Net Profit,全年盈利有望突破40 mil的新高。

而公司在2015的外汇盈利是3.991 mil,今年Q1就有1.253 mil的外汇亏损。YEELEE在蒙受外汇亏损的情况下还可以创新高,可见今年它有多么强势。

笔者最开心的是看到公司的现金从14Q1的25.2 mil上涨到最新的89.267 mil。而债务则是127.572 mil,Net Debt = 38.305 mil。而公司的Gearing ratio也从巅峰期的0.38下跌到现在的0.24,资产债务有明显的进步。


FY2015的时候,YEELEE的Trading业务全年贡献的Profit Before Tax是10.025 mil。可是来到FY2016Q1,1个季度Profit Before Tax就有6.838 mil,也就是去年Trading的68.2%。而且REDBULL是在2015年8月才开始贡献盈利,这也是导致YEELEE在FY2015的Q3以及 Q4有了明显的进步。


我们可以看到公司在解说TRADING的表现的时候,Red Bull Gold Energy Drinks是推高盈利的主要推手之一。所以笔者YEELEE今年的业绩盈利在REB BULL全程的贡献应该会有【质】的突破。

YEELEE年头的股价是RM2.12, 以现在2.30的股价计算,全年涨幅才8.49%. 同样是来自消费领域,盈利屡破新高的YEELEE可说是远远落后其他消费股。去年Q2的EPS只有2.8仙,因此YEELEE可以很轻易地超越,毕竟最近 两个季度的EPS分别是5.98以及6.23.

YEELEE不是属于爆发型的股票,但是它的盈利稳定,资产债务都有了很大的改善。只要RED BULL可以持续带来稳定的收入以及盈利,YEELEE未来两年的盈利可见度会非常清晰。

以上纯属分享,买卖自负。

Harryt30
11.40a.m
2016.07.26

http://harryteo.blogspot.my/2016/07/1306-yeelee5584.html

Globetronics' 2Q earnings dive 64% on lower sales, forex loss

Globetronics' 2Q earnings dive 64% on lower sales, forex loss
By Ahmad Naqib Idris / theedgemarkets.com | July 26, 2016 : 6:27 PM MYT

KUALA LUMPUR (July 26): Globetronics Technology Bhd saw its net profit dive 64% to RM6.52 million for the second quarter ended June 30, 2016 (2QFY16) from RM17.93 million in the same quarter last year, as its Malaysia and Singapore segments saw lower sales and earnings.

The plunge in profit was in line with a 36% decline in revenue to RM57.41 million for the quarter from RM89.03 million a year earlier, Globetronics' bourse filing today showed.

"The lower revenue and net profit achieved in the quarter [were] mainly due to lower volume loadings from some of the group's customers as a result of reduction in end customers' demand and forex (foreign exchange) loss recognised, amounting to RM4.7 million," said the group.

For the first half of its financial year ending Dec 31, 2016 (1HFY16), net profit plunged 71% to RM10.2 million from RM35.08 million in 1HFY15, on the back of a 35% contraction in cumulative revenue for the period.

Going forward, Globetronics expects gradual recovery in the business and product loading towards 2HFY16, and said it will continue to focus on its research and development (R&D) initiatives.

"The group will continue to focus on escalating up the value chain and riding on the R&D initiatives in new products design and development with our key customer. This initiative is expected to result in the manufacturing of new products in the second half of the financial year," the semiconductor player said.

Globetronics closed 3 sen or 0.93% higher at RM3.27, giving a market capitalisation of RM921.76 million.

上半年股价跑贏大市 塑料包装业绩强势延烧

财经 2016年07月24日 | 记者:胡雪樺
上半年股价跑贏大市 塑料包装业绩强势延烧

2016年上半年,亮眼的成绩引领塑料包装股的股价水涨船高,跑贏富时大马综合指数和其他领域。隨著预期树脂价格和令吉匯率在接下来不会有太大的变动,加上塑料包装是民眾日常生活用品,分析员相信,塑料包装股在接下来的季度將继续交出耀眼的成绩单。

同时,塑料包装公司不断扩大產能和设法提高產品赚幅,也意味著该领域的需求量依旧强劲,肯纳格研究分析员也因此上修通源工业(TGUAN,7034,主板工业股)、森德公司(SCIENTX,4731,主板工业股)和信利资源(SLP,7248,主板工业股)的目標价和投资评级,並將塑料包装领域的投资评级调高至「增持」。

树脂价格令吉双低推高盈利

展望未来,分析员预期塑料包装领域將在未来几个季度继续交出强稳的业绩,归因于较低的树脂价格和令吉兑美元疲软。


塑料包装產品的主要原材料是树脂,因此,较低的树脂价格,將推动该领域的盈利表现,也是塑料包装领域首季交出高于预期业绩的功臣之一。

肯纳格研究分析员预计,今年下半年树脂价格將企稳在每公吨1100美元至1200美元区间,进而惠及包装股的盈利表现。

「除了树脂价格以外,令吉兑美元匯率疲软,將有助推高塑料包装股的盈利表现,因大部份塑料包装业者均有把產品出口至海外。」

肯纳格研究分析员认为,油价前景萎靡、地缘政治不稳定、不明確的英国脱欧动向和美联储未来加息空间,都有可能进一步地拉低令吉兑美元匯率。

因此,他维持2016年及2017年令吉兑美元匯率预测在4.10令吉水平。

截至上週五(22日),令吉兑美元匯率报4.0636令吉。

「假设令吉兑美元走强5%,我们也不担心企业盈利会因此而被拉低约2%至4%,因较高的產品赚幅將推动塑料包装公司的盈利成长。」

他解释,较佳的產品组合和进口商需求量增长,料可拉高產品的赚幅。

强劲需求支撑前景

另一方面,儘管全球经济放缓,日本、中国、欧洲和澳洲强劲的需求量,將继续支撑手套和塑料包装领域的前景,加上两者產品皆为日常必需品,而业者的產能扩大计划也体现出產品需求量依在,预计可带动领域长期成长。

信利资源和森德公司早前均纷纷宣告著手扩大產能,当中信利资源即將在2018年启用新工厂,將该公司年產能推高至3万8000公吨,而森德公司產能也预料在2017年提高42%,至约30万6000公吨。

此外,通源工业则不断注资进行產品研发、改善產品素质,也扩大客户群至更多的跨国企业,藉此提高產品销售量和赚幅。

针对跨太平洋伙伴协议(TPP)所带来的影响,肯纳格研究分析员认为,这將有利于塑料包装领域长期发展,因该协议料可拉低或取消该领域所需承担的税务,潜在受惠者包括信利资源和南源塑胶(BPPLAS,5100,主板工业股)。

根据普华永道研究报告,美国目前对零售商塑料袋徵收高达104%的反倾销税,该类產品佔大马塑料下游製造商旗下產品约1/3。

「同时,跨太平洋伙伴协议也有助进一步减低业者的树脂成本,归因我国有37%的塑料包装原材料是从其他跨太协国家如新加坡、日本和美国引进。总结来说,上述协议將为塑料包装业者带来长期利好因素。」

有鉴于宏观经济持稳和领域前景明朗,肯纳格研究分析员把塑料包装领域的投资评级从「中和」,调高至「增持」;同时,他也上修森德公司投资评级至「跑贏大市」。

此外,该分析员也上调森德公司、信利资源和通源工业的目標价。

不过,在唱好塑料包装领域的当儿,该分析员也列出会导致投资评级被下调的数项潜在风险,即:令吉兑美元走强、低于预期的塑料包装需求量,尤其是塑料包装进口国家需求量下滑、高于预测的树脂价格,以及低迷的宏观经济衝击领域估值。

高赚幅带动股价

迈入2016年,全球经济趋向不明朗,让市场蒙上一层阴霾,同时令吉兑美元反弹也令2015年风生水起的出口股如手套股,因被投资者大力拋售,年初至今的股价挫跌了26%至32%;然而,同样涉及出口业务的塑料包装领域却未隨大市下滑,肯纳格研究分析员解释说,这主要是因为,该领域连续2个季度交出超越市场预期的业绩,以及赚幅大幅提高带动。

涨幅30%-34%

相比综指和小资股指数在今年上半年各挫跌2.27%和5.35%,肯纳格研究分析员所追踪的塑料包装股的股价,则在同期取得30%至34%的升幅,成为少数跑贏综指的领域。

根据《彭博社》数据显示,年初至今(截至7月22日)股价涨幅最大的塑料包装股是信利资源,截至上週五(22日),该股按年暴涨1.10令吉或57.89%,至3令吉。紧隨在后的是,通源工业和森德公司,两者各飆涨1.12令吉或35.56%,以及2.87令吉或29.44%,至4.27令吉和12.62令吉。而耐慕志(DAIBOCI,8125,主板工业股)则是塑料包装领域中,股价唯一按年呈跌的公司,跌幅为19.7仙或8.63%,报2.09令吉。

翻阅各大企业2016年首季的业绩表现,塑料包装公司首季业绩均超越肯纳格研究分析员和市场的预测,尤其是通源工业和森德公司的业绩最为亮眼,儘管整体领域业绩稍微差于2015年末季。

通源工业2016財政年首季(截至3月31日止)净利按年暴涨1.82倍,至1307万令吉,同时营业额也按年成长11.74%,至1亿7967万令吉;而森德公司2016財政年第3季(截至4月30日止)净利和营业额,则按年各增长42.6%和19.5%,至6126万令吉和5亿4390万令吉。

对此,肯纳格研究分析员解释道,通源工业和森德公司出口销售业务净赚幅高于预期,和高端產品的销售贡献强劲,是两者盈利大涨的主因。

除此之外,较低的有效税率,也是带动森德公司业绩趋好的因素之一。

首选股信利 森德股价被低估

以耐慕志税前盈利赚幅、派息率、股本回酬率和3年复合平均成长等指標作为塑料包装股的计算基准,肯纳格研究分析员对各股项对比后发现,信利资源、森德公司和通源工业都处在被低估水平。

有鉴于此,他调高上述3只股塑料包装股的目標价,而首选股则是森德公司和信利资源。

目標价上修

针对调高信利资源估值,肯纳格研究分析员解释,这主要是基于该公司有高达63%的销售量以美元计算、持有净现金、派息政策达40%,以及该公司的税前盈利赚幅14%和股本回酬率24%,超越同行的7%至10%赚幅和股本回酬率9%至21%。

「按照上述指標计算,该公司回酬率將达16.4%。同时,值得注意的是,该公司的產能扩展计划效应將在2018年发酵,预计信利资源產能將额外增加58%。」为此,该分析员大幅上修信利资源目標价至3.11令吉,原为2.24令吉。

与此同时,肯纳格研究分析员也把森德公司目標价从13.25令吉,调高至15.13令吉,並上修投资评级至「跑贏大市」,归功于该公司股本回酬率18%和3年复合平均成长32%,皆跑贏耐慕志的15%及10%。

看好通源

另一方面,通源工业强劲的盈利赚幅,是肯纳格研究分析员看好该公司的主因,並相信这將推动该公司交出亮眼的业绩。

他指出,该公司毛赚幅和核心净利赚幅在过去4个季度皆取得显著成长,其毛赚幅和核心净利赚幅,分別从原本的12%和3%,改善至17%和9%,超越肯纳格研究分析员的预期。

该分析员之前预测其2016和2017財政年的核心净利赚幅,分別是5.3%和5.6%。

儘管通源工业核心净利赚幅已远远超越市场预测的赚幅,但该公司接下来是否有能力维持该赚幅水平,则是投资者所关注的课题。

对此,肯纳格研究分析员相信,该公司有能力保住净利赚幅,这归功于:一、该公司已变卖生產低赚幅(少于5%)產品的机械;二、拉伸膜產品將大幅提高通源工业营业额和盈利赚幅;三、PVC食物保鲜膜和有机麵条销售量,料进一步推动企业成长。

因此,肯纳格研究分析员將通源工业2016和2017財政年盈利预测,各別调高24%和25%,至5140万令吉和5660万令吉。

同时,假设凭单和不可赎回可转换无担保债券(ICULS)被全面转换,该公司2016和2017財政年的每股盈利將分別为27.9仙和30.8仙。

此外,基于以美元计算的营业额佔整体约50%、不断改善的税前盈利赚幅和较高的3年复合成长率,他將通源工业的本益比上修至14.6倍,隨之把目標价从4.19令吉,调高至4.49令吉。