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Sunday, January 31, 2016

(Icon) Reshuffling My Portfolio

(Icon) Reshuffling My Portfolio

Author: Icon8888 | Publish date: Sat, 30 Jan 2016, 11:19 PM





1. A More Balanced Portfolio

In stock market, many things can happen in just a few days. Ringgit traded at approximately 4.40 last week, but yesterday it closed at 4.14.

Together with many other forum members, I started playing the export theme since December 2014. Common sense tells us that the party will end one day.

I didn't really have a feel of when it will happen, but decided to diversify my portfolio at beginning of 2016 by taking position in some non export stocks :-

(a) JHM Consolidation Bhd - Manufacturer of High Brightness LED. The group derives 94% of its revenue from Malaysia. It has done well in past few quarters due to strong demand of its products. Completion of new factory this year should provide further boost to earnings.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/88849.jsp

(b) Mercury Industries Bhd - Principally involved in manufacturing and trading of car paints. The group derives 80% of its sales from Malaysia. It is a beneficiary of low oil price. The strengthening of Ringgit should allow it to lower import cost.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/90017.jsp

(c) Mieco Chipboard Bhd - Manufacturer of particleboard. It derives 75% of its sales from Malaysia. It is a beneficiary of low oil price as the glue it uses in the manufacturing process is a petroleum derivative. The strengthening of Ringgit should allow it to lower import cost.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/90305.jsp

(d) Luxchem Bhd - Manufactures and trades Unsaturated Polyester Resin and gloves related chemicals. It derives 75% of its sales from Malaysia. It is a beneficiary of low oil price. I bought it at around RM1.10 in July 2015 but took profit end 2015 at RM1.65. Recently I bought it back at RM1.70. I am hoping that low oil price will turn in quarter after quarter of super profit for the group. The strengthening of Ringgit should allow it to lower import cost.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/80653.jsp

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/90513.jsp

2. Keeping My Export Stocks

Despite recent strengthening of Ringgit, I am of the view that USD will remain strong going forward (even though might not be as high as 4.40). This is consistent with my July 2015 article :-

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/80293.jsp

My abovementioned view was backed by historical precedence. In the past two rounds USD bull run, strong Dollars lasted for 7 years in both cases. Please go through the article for more details.

I still have 40% of my money in export stocks (40% in non export cum low oil price beneficiary, 20% in others). The major exporters in my portfolio are as follows :-

(a) Thong Guan Industries Bhd - My exposure is through the Warrants. It was the star performer in my 2015 portoflio, went up from 90 sen (my cost) to as high as RM2.50 within one year.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/86450.jsp

I haven't sold a single unit. Recently it has gone down to RM1.74.

I have no regret for not selling at recent peak. For me, Thong Guan is a very rare opportunity, I would like to let it unleash its full potential (whether achievable or not is a different thing).

Thong Guan benefited a lot from weak Ringgit. However, it has other strengths that make it resilient and defensive :-

(i) Capacity expansion still ongoing and hence yet to be fully priced in;

(ii) Low oil price stimulates demand for more plastic packaging material, creating new market that previously did not exist;

(iii) Investment in new technology and machineries allows it to differentiate from competitors, thereby commanding better profit margin; and

(iv) Turning net cash soon. If it starts paying out strong dividend (can be as quick as this year), valuation will be propelled to an entirely new level.

The only black spot is recent Yen weakness, which should have an adverse impact on demand.

(b) EG Industries Bhd - I am a late comer to this stock, only started buying EG-WC recently at 64 sen. The group should benefit from weak Ringgit. However, same as Thong Guan, it has a beautiful growth story that I hope could shield it from a strengthening Ringgit. Will buy more if it comes down further.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/90015.jsp

(c) Comintel Corporation Bhd - I am keeping Comcorp in my portfolio. According to analysis in my previous article, the group reported EPS of 2 sen in July 2015 quarter (yellow highlighted at table below) when USD was 3.72 per Ringgit.

Based on annualised EPS of 8 sen and current price of 64 sen, prospective PER would be 8 times. If USD is > 3.72, maybe EPS will be even stronger ?





Please refer to my previous article for further details.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/88366.jsp

Apart from the above, I still hold some Dufu, Jaycorp, etc. But their weightage is not as high as the above few stocks.

3. Construction Stocks

Recently, George Kent declined to as low as RM1.50. I took the opportunity to add more to my portfolio.

I am still holding Gadang and Mudajaya.

I have exposure to the abovementioned stocks not because I am bullish about the construction sector. In fact, with current low oil price, I am cautious about that industry.

Push come to shove, the government might need to postpone some of the future projects. But so far, Malaysian government has a tradition of respecting sanctity of contracts. It won't simply cancel contracts that have already been awarded unless it is absolutely necessary. We are far from that kind of situation.

I keep GKent, Gadang and Mudajaya in my portfolio because of their good earnings visibility (of course, things don't always work out as expected, especially for Mudajaya). My experience over the years is that as long as earning is strong, share price will be resilient.

That is how I kicked start 2016. Let's see how things work out going forward.

After a turbulent 2015, another exciting year is ahead of us.

Saturday, January 30, 2016

Aemulus on cloud nine

LISTED over four months ago on the ACE Market, Aemulus Holdings Bhd, a Penang-based test equipment manufacturer, has a few positive catalysts going for it.

That’s at least according to an elaborate research report by CIMB Research issued this week, which pointed out that Aemulus should benefit from the growth in mobile data and cloud computing, and as a result, be able to achieve a commendable 35% compound annual growth rate over the next three years.

The research house has put a projected net profit by Aemulus of RM13.32mil (three sen a share) for its financial year ending Sept 30, 2016 and RM18.15mil (4.1 sen a share) for FY2017 respectively, compared with RM9.11mil (2.4 sen a share) for FY2015.

But can Aemulus live up to such expectations, considering the difficult global economic times?

Notably, the space in which Aemulus operates in, producing testing equipment for the semi-conductor industry, is dominated by much larger players.

The company’s CEO is not available to comment for this article.

But unlike other firms which have ventured into this space only to fade a few years later, Aemulus has been growing steadily since its inception in 2005. It was self-funded until 2010 when local venture capital firm Teak Capital Sdn Bhd, led by experienced venture capitalist Chok Kwee Bee invested an undisclosed amount into Aemulus.

Prior to the IPO, Teak Capital had a 9.74% stake in Aemulus, which has been diluted to 6.82% post-IPO. Teak Capital also sold close to 1% of its stake at the point of Aemulus’ listing.

In total, there was an offer for sale of 43.9 million existing shares sold during Aemulus’ IPO, which is not a common practice for small companies that list.

The top management of Aemulus were part of the vendors of the IPO shares although they still hold significant blocks. The CEO, chief operating officer and chief technology officer hold a combined stake of 32.9% in Aemulus.

Aemulus raised RM24.58mil from the sale of 87.79 million new shares during its listing exercise.

Of this, RM12.88mil is earmarked for working capital, RM6mil for research and development, RM2mil for the purchase of new equipment, RM1.2mil for brand and promotion spending as well as RM2.5mil for listing expenses.

Teak Capital’s Chok also holds the position of independent non-executive chairman in Aemulus.

Another notable shareholder who bought into the company during Aemulus’ IPO is Khazanah Nasional Bhd, which holds a 15% stake. Aemulus is involved in the design, engineering and development of Automated Test Equipment (ATE). ATEs are used by test companies and semiconductor manufacturers to ensure that integrated circuit chips in consumer electronics function well before the electronic items are assembled and shipped.

The integrated circuit chips can be found in wireless and radio frequency semiconductor devices such as mobile phones and smartphones.

Direct export sales contribute 60% to 65% to the group’s revenue, where Aemulus products are exported to Singapore, China, the United States, South Korea, the Philippines, Thailand, Germany.

Multinational corporations in Malaysia make up the remainder of Aemulus’ revenue. Its key customers are US-based Avago Technologies and Skyworks Solutions, which are two of the top three RF component designers globally.

These two companies accounted for about 55% of Aemulus’ group revenue in FY2015.

Overseas expansion

Part of the group’s growth plans is in its expansion plans overseas.

Aemulus is targeting to enter into two new markets, Japan and Taiwan, this year.

In November 2015, a new branch in Taiwan was set up to serve as a sales and support service centre that will assist the company’s entry into the Taiwanese market.

“We learnt that Aemulus is acquiring new customers in Taiwan.

“Taiwan is seen to be an attractive market for its tester products due to the nation’s extensive ecosystem of semiconductor service providers and outsource semiconductor assembly and test players,” said CIMB Research.

High demand

The research house sees the structural shift towards the faster 4G/Long-Term Evolution network as a major driver of demand for RF components.

Rising 4G network penetration augurs well for RF tester manufacturers like Aemulus, given the higher need for advanced tester equipment to support the proliferation of 4G networks.

“In spite of the expected slowdown in global smartphone shipment growth, we estimate smartphone RF content will increase in order to support the strong data demand,” said CIMB Research.

Avago Technologies expects RF content in smartphones to increase in tandem with the rise in network requirements, at over 20% annually. Apart from the transition towards 4G networks, there is also potential growth in enterprise data storage as another catalyst for Aemulus. The company was presented the opportunity in cloud computing following the development of a new tester, Amoeba 4600, in October 2014.

Amoeba 4600 was specifically designed to address Avago’s needs for testing enterprise storage chip.

Aemulus first shipped Amoeba 4600 to Avago in March 2015.

Revenue contribution from this product is expected to reach 40% in FY2016.

Thus, Aemulus is poised to benefit from rising demand for enterprise storage, driven by higher traffic volume from cloud computing and the Internet of Things.

However, Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International projects worldwide sales of new semiconductor manufacturing equipment to decrease 0.6% year-on-year to US$37.3bil in 2015.

This is attributed to the combination of lower demand for assembly, packaging and test equipment, and strengthening of the dollar.

This trend is reflected in the latest industry book-to-bill data which fell below the 1.0 level in the October-November period, indicating a softening in industry demand.

The prolonged weakness in equipment sales could bring downside risk to equipment manufacturers like Aemulus.

Despite that, CIMB Research is optimistic about Aemulus. It is putting a target price of70 sen for Aemulus, based on a forecast 2017 price-earnings ratio of 15 times. This is at a 20% discount over global ATE peers’ average of 18 times earnings, CIMB says.

“We project strong revenue growth for Aemulus, driven by higher shipment of its Amoeba testers and we believe that Aemulus’ fundamentals are intact given its strong products portfolio and highly-experienced management team,” said CIMB Research.

Friday, January 29, 2016

5 Ways To Reduce Your Income Tax

5 Ways To Reduce Your Income Tax

Written by Timothy Ho Published: 29 January 2016

planning tx
If you are rich enough to be paying income tax, we assume you would interested to pay as little as possible as well. Even in Singapore, when our income tax rate is known for being one of the lowest in the world, income tax can also be a significant chunk of your annual income, particularly if you are not careful in managing it.
Aside from your regular monthly income, it is worth noting that income derived from bonuses, overtime pay and other income sources such as those from rental also form part of your total taxable income.

How Much Do I Really Pay?

Fresh Graduate Who Earns $3,500 Plus A 3-Month Bonus:

Let’s assume you are a fresh graduate who earns a comfortable $3,500 for your first job at a MNC. You are also fortunate enough to receive a total of 3-month annual bonus throughout the year.
In total, your annual income would be $52,500. At this amount, you will pay income tax of $1,425 if you do not have any tax-deductible claims.

Middle Aged Person Who Earns $6,000 A Month With 3-Month Bonus:

If you are at the peak of your career drawing a monthly salary of $6,000 with a 3-month annual bonus, your annual income would be $90,000. At this amount, your annual income tax would be $4,500 if you do not have any tax-deductible claims.


Realistic Ways To Reduce My Income Tax

1. Top Up Your CPF Special Account

Providing a top up to your CPF Special Account is one of the most cost efficient ways to build up your own retirement portfolio without taking on any risk.
By doing so when you are young, it also allows the top up amount to earn interest over a prolonged period of time. For example, a top up of $7,000 today would become $22,704 after 30 years based on a 4% per annum interest. This strategy of building up a retirement portfolio is practically risk-free and requires zero knowledge to execute.
In addition, CPF members get a dollar-for-dollar tax relief up to $7,000 per annum for providing top up to their CPF Special Account.
For example, if our young graduate who earns $3,500 a month provides a CPF top up of $7,000, he can reduce his income tax from $1,425 to $935, or a saving of $490. It is like the government giving you extra money to encourage you to build up your own retirement portfolio.
Similar to donations, you would need to make your top up before the end of the year to qualify.

2. Donate To Approved Institutions

A donation made to an approved institution would allow the donor to claim tax relief of 250% of the amount donated. (For 2015, the tax relief is 300%).
For example, if our middle age person has a habit of donating 10% ($9,000) of his income to charitable causes, he would be able to claim a tax relief of $22,500. This would reduce his income tax from $4,500 to $2,475, a saving of about $2,025.
Do note that all donations must be made before the year end for you to claim your tax relief for 2015.

3.  Cost Of Renting Out Your Property

As mentioned earlier in the article, rental income from your property is taxable. This could be income from a room you rent out or from the multiple properties that you own.
Here is the thing, while you are required to pay tax based on the income you derived from the rental of a property, you are also allowed to claim expenses you incur for renting it out.
Claimable expenses include the interest you paid for the housing loan you took, property tax, premiums paid on fire insurance, monthly management fee, repair cost, agent commission and Internet and utility charges.
If you a landlord who owns multiple properties, we are pretty sure we don’t need to tell you how costly some of these items can be. So do claim it Otherwise you will just be paying a higher income tax for no good reason!

4. Parents Relief

If you have parents (or grandparents) whom you are supporting, you can also claim tax relief as well. The following table shows how much relief you can claim.

Parent ReliefSource: IRAS
Do note that you can’t just claim tax relief based on the fact that you have elderly parents(otherwise everyone would be claiming the heck out of it!). Rather, specific conditions must be met.
Based on our observation, the biggest condition is the fact that your dependant cannot have an income exceeding $4,000 per annum (or about $330 per month). These include tax-exempt income such as those from pension schemes, dividends or bank interest.
In other words, you must really be supporting your parent(s) who are reliant on your income for survival, and not simply parent(s) who happened to be retired but have access to income from somewhere else.

5. Course Fee

If you are currently furthering your studies while working, there is a great chance that you would be able to reduce your income tax by claiming the cost you incur for your studies against your taxable income. These costs include examination fee, course fee and tuition fee.
You may claim up to $5,500 per annum.

Claim Your Tax Relief And Save Some Money

Some of the ways we shared have to be executed before the end of the year for you to earn tax savings. Others can be claimed as long as you keep supporting proof of the costs you incurred. In any case, they all help you to save money while concurrently helping you to fulfil your responsibilities in life. Don’t miss out on them. Do note that there is a personal tax relief of 50% in conjunction with SG50 celebration (yes, this is one of the rare times when we are truly excited about SG50).

推高发展总值10% 华阳柔佛购地价格诱人

推高发展总值10% 华阳柔佛购地价格诱人

财经新闻
财经 2016-01-28 13:11

(吉隆坡27日讯)华阳(HUAYANG,5062,主板产业股)日前收购柔佛产业发展公司和8块土地,分析员认为,这项适时的收购计划有助增添地库,同时收购价具有吸引力。

华阳以总额7560万令吉,收购Grand View产业私人有限公司,计划发展总值达3亿4640万令吉的综合发展项目。

Grand View拥有8块面积共73.16英亩的永久地契土地,而华阳计划在相关土地上,推行8个阶段的综合发展项目,包括排屋、半独立洋房、店铺及柔佛可负担房屋计划的产业等。

达证券分析员指出,华阳的收购价相等于每平方尺23.72令吉。

由于该发展计划获得当地监管单位授予规划许可和州行政议会的批准,因此,未能有相似的交易可做出直接比较。

“不过,若和柔州柏兰东住宅用地每平方尺35至60令吉的询问价,我们认为,收购价非常有吸引力。

尽管收购价或占发展总值预估的21%,不过仍视为合理,因已取得所需的批准。”

最新的收购计划,将推高华阳的发展总值10%,至40亿令吉,且认为这项适时的收购,能增加该公司在柔州的地库。

积极寻找购地时机

肯纳格研究分析员对于这项收购计划并不感到意外,因该公司曾提及积极的物色购地时机,认为这项适时的收购,能为现有的新镇计划新增地库。

分析员认为,土地成本稍微偏高,因收购价占发展总值的22%,高于20%的舒适门槛,但是每平方尺的收购价,则低于柔州每平方尺平均36令吉的询问价。

“我们相信,华阳能在未来能进一步提升发展总值,犹如该公司管理其他的项目一样,如One South和Sentrio Suites。”

由于该项目在2018财年才推介,因此分析员纷纷维持财测不变。

AirAsia X upgraded to ‘outperform’, target price bumped up to 28 sen

KUALA LUMPUR: PublicInvest Research has upgraded AirAsia X Bhd (AAX) to “outperform” with a target price of 28 sen based on 1.6 times FY16 forecast price-to-book value (P/BV).

“We feel AAX deserves a higher valuation as we see clearer signs of a turnaround in its operations. We believe 1.6 times P/BV is not excessive as it is near two standard deviation below its three years historical average and is in-line with the sector’s average of low-cost carriers peers,” the research house said.

PublicInvest said the low-cost medium-haul airline hosted a meeting with analysts recently and hinted that its fourth quarter ended Dec 31, 2015 results would be showing some signs of improvement. Their key strategies are to grow fares and load, increase flights frequency, explore new routes such as Auckland and Delhi, and improve the connectivity with short-haul operations.

“We believe that 2016 will be a better year for the group as it should reap the benefits of maturing routes and falling oil prices,” it said.

AAX has announced that the group will be expanding its operations this year to New Delhi and Auckland (via Gold Coast), which are scheduled to commence in February and March 2016 respectively. It is also looking at adding capacity in China market such as increasing capacity in performed routes of Chengdu, Shanghai and Beijing.

In addition, the group also plans to enter into Hawaian market (via Osaka), which they are still in the midst of reviewing the business case, while also waiting for the route approval.

“By having these new routes, we anticipate AAX to have some growth in its yields and at the same time improving its connectivity to AirAsia short-haul operations,” PublicInvest said, adding that AAX expects to have four aircraft delivery in FY16, which two of the aircraft was deferred from last year.

The research house noted that AAX has hedged 47% of its fuel cost for FY16 at an average of US$60 per barrel, which was lower than FY15 at US$88 per barrel.

“Management currently is budgeting that the group will be profitable at the level of fuel cost at US$70 per barrel and currency of RM4.20. The group will enjoy a much better number if the fuel cost level is at US$50 per barrel and currency of RM4.40,” PublicInvest said.

Thursday, January 28, 2016

Spritzer’s 2Q net profit more than doubles

KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 28): Spritzer Bhd ( Valuation: 0.80, Fundamental: 1.40) saw its net profit for the second quarter ended Nov 30, 2015 (2QFY16) surged 113.54% to RM7.41 million or 5.12 sen per share, from RM3.47 million or 2.52 sen a year ago, on higher sales and lower packaging material costs.

Revenue rose 13.43% to RM65.62 million, from RM57.85 million.

In a filing with Bursa Malaysia, Spritzer said the revenue growth was mainly due to increased sales for bottled water products and packaging materials and better average selling prices.

For the six months ended Nov 30, 2015 (6MFY16), Spritzer’s net profit was at RM14.7 million or 10.16 sen per share, up 45.11% from RM10.13 million or 7.38 sen per share a year ago,

Full year revenue rose 10.03% to RM132.28 million, from RM120.22 million.

Amid economic headwinds and challenges in the local economy, coupled with implementation of goods and services tax (GST) which further dampened consumer sentiments, Spritzer said the company is “cautiously optimistic” that the demand for bottled water will remain stable.

The company also said it plans to grow exports sales, which currently account for less than 10% of the revenue.

“We are mindful that the macroeconomic headwinds such as slower economic growth, low prices of our commodities and the weaker domestic currency, coupled with recent implementation of the goods and services tax (GST) will dampen consumer sentiments and dent consumption,

“Nevertheless, we remain confident that the demand for our bottled water products will be stable and the directors expect the group to perform satisfactorily in the financial year ending May 31, 2016 (FY16),” it added.

Spritzer closed 2 sen or 0.87% higher at RM2.31 today, for a market capitalisation of RM339.54 million.

(Note: The Edge Research's fundamental score reflects a company’s profitability and balance sheet strength, calculated based on historical numbers. The valuation score determines if a stock is attractively valued or not, also based on historical numbers. A score of 3 suggests strong fundamentals and attractive valuations.)

[转贴] 市場有效論 - 止凡

[转贴] 市場有效論 - 止凡

Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Thu, 28 Jan 2016, 12:13 AM

January 27, 2016


看完《A Random Walk Down Wall Street》這書實在獲益良多,其中有提到市場有效理論,這是一個巴菲特一直認為是很錯的理論,索羅斯就認為這是一個超過九成正確理論,他正是在投機著那理論不正確的時候。

市場有效理論的內容大意是指當一些有價值的東西在買賣市場以低價在拍賣時,市場上大部份人都會知道其價值並會持買入態度,因此這個東西的價值會上漲,直至價錢回歸其價值。相反對於價值低於價錢的東西,市場人士皆會持沽售態度,也會令價錢回歸其價值。

這 個理論的其中一個條件是要市場上大部份買賣者都會知道市場上買賣東西的價值。另一個條件是要有一個很有效率的市場,樓市不一定是很有效率,因為買賣時的手 續不少,但股市就不同,按一按電腦便可完成大買賣,因此,支持這個理論的學者認為在股市上只要出現三兩分鐘的錯價,市場都能立刻修正,這就是市場有效理 論。

書 中作者就不太贊同市場有效理論,還提出了一個有趣的故事來比喻。話說有一個支持市場有效理論的教授與學生在街上走,學生看到有一張一百美元紙幣在路上,教 授也看到時就對學生說:「不用拾起它,這張一百美元紙幣一定是假的,如果這是真的話,在路上一早就會被人家拾走,現在沒有人拾走而給我們看到,一定是假 的。」

巴菲特曾說過他現有的財富是推翻市場有效理論的最好證明,到底這個理論是真是假呢?這值得深思。

此文章首次在《取之有道》發表於2009-2-14

後記:

《A Random Walk Down Wall Street》這本著作,止凡於六年前已經拜讀過了,當時寫下了這篇文章,主要在討論市場有效論。往後的投資日子,亦不時有反思這個具有不少影響力的理 論,至少不少投資者對市場的價格是極之上心,總認為市場所給予的價格是合理的,亦常會「尊重市場」。

依我觀察,的確市場智慧在大部份的時間都錯不到哪裡,好東西很難會以便宜的價錢放賣,很便宜的東西又多數不會是太好的。然而,至少有幾個情況未必如此的,即市場有效論未必有效。

第 一個情況是市場處於不理性時,即「市場先生」的情緒波動時,讓不理性主導了價格,價格就會偏離價值,越不理性就偏離得越厲害。我們不難看見當市場越升越 有,越升越樂觀,但所有企業公司的基本面不一定會有很大改變,但各個公司的目標價都會不斷被調升上去。相反亦然,近期大跌市,越跌就越負面,越多負面新聞 又會越跌下去。

第 二個情況是市場交易沒有效率的時候,今時今日最好的例子就是樓市,由於政府多次出招,買賣成本都提高了,市場的二手樓又缺盤,買家不想賣,賣家難找盤源, 交投疏落,交易被冰封了似的。在這時候,很難做到市場有效以反映每時每刻的價值,於是很容易做出古怪的價格水平,例如一個成交被另一個成交高很多、越細單 位呎價越貴、一手樓比二手樓便直等等。

第 三個情況是市場的主要組成並非有水平的投資者,英、美、日本、香港等股市的組成主要為大戶及機構投資者,在這些專業的大戶所組成的市場中,所有數據出台不 久已經被消化掉,並在市場價格上反映,在這些地方談市場有效論的話,我比較支持索羅絲的論點,即大部份時間都成立的。然而,常言道今天的內地股市,其主要 投資者都是由散戶所組成,更由於資金進出困難,大戶就算看到錯價都未必能輕易參與,於這樣的市場上去談論市場有效是否合適呢?這些市場中出現長期錯價是否 不可能呢?這值得深思。早兩天分享了有關中國大媽的文章,有興趣不妨一讀。

http://cpleung826.blogspot.hk/2016/01/blog-post_24.html

其實,我本身並無深入了解與學習有關市場有效論這類東西,所以這個題目對我來說已經是相當高深的了,投資界大概有不少理論與公式計算去驗證市場有效論,我甚至可能連理解其真正意思都有困難。不過,隨心寫寫文章,拋磚引玉一下吧,反正了解不了解也對我的計資計劃影響不大。

http://www.moleculez.co/#!%E5%B8%82%E5%A0%B4%E6%9C%89%E6%95%88%E8%AB%96/cojo/56a8288b0cf215a9bb9b2d49

KMLOONG – Fundamental Analysis (27 Jan 2016) - L. C. Chong

KMLOONG – Fundamental Analysis (27 Jan 2016) - L. C. Chong

Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Thu, 28 Jan 2016, 12:14 AM 

Fundamental Analysis as of FY15 – http://www.slideshare.net/lcchong76/kmloong-fundamental-analysis-fy15

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1Vqdr7b

Latest Financial – Q3 2016 Financial Report (30 Dec 2015)

FY16 Q3 Results Highlight:

The revenue increased by 16.6% for Q3FY16 (RM209m) if compare to Q3FY15 (RM179m). 

KMLOONG increased operating income by 68% (Q3FY16: RM36m; Q3FY15: RM21m).

The revenue dropped by -1.4% for 9MFY16 (RM585m) as compared to 9MFY15 (RM594m).

The better performance was partly due to impairment of assets and provision for contingent liabilities for RM3 million had been recognized in last year, and higher FFB production.

The FFB production for Q3FY16 was 88,600 MT which was 14% higher than Q3FY15. For 9MFY16, the FFB production was 235,000 MT which was 3% higher than 227,400 MT achieved in 9MFY15.

Total CPO production for 3QFY16 and 9MFY16 were 89,100 MT and 231,200 MT respectively which were 25% and 16% higher than the production in the corresponding periods last year.

The market condition and demand for KMLOONG’s milling products has been good and steady for the Q3FY16 and 9MFY16. The sale of CPO, for Q3FY16 and 9MFY16, were 85,600 MT and 226,900 MT respectively, which were 21% and 11% higher comparing to the respective 
corresponding periods last year. The average prices of CPO for Q3FY16 and 9MFY16 were in the region of RM2,050 per MT and RM2,150 per MT respectively which were about 3% and 10% lower comparing to the respective corresponding periods last year.

Valuation:
In my opinion, in near term, the fair value of KMLOONG range from 3.1 to 3.5; in long term, the fair value range from 4.5 to 4.7.



Going Forward:
KMLOONG is not only a good counter for trading, but it maintains high dividend yield too. I am not sure it can maintain high dividend yield if CPO prices continue at low range.
The CPO price moves in a cyclical manner. In a worst case scenario, KMLOONG, a net cash company with a low cost of production and an experienced management team would be able to withstand the turbulence and even take up expansion opportunities.
I believe that
CPO price will remain stable in 2016
FFB and CPO production of KMLOONG will increase marginally in 2016
I just accumulated KMLOONG recently.

At the time of writing, I owned shares of KMLOONG.


https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2016/01/27/kmloong-fundamental-analysis-27-jan-2016/

MPHBCAP - ITS MAJESTIC FLAMINGO HOTELS

IS MPHBCAP's NTA RM7.00?

We have looked at MphbCap's 1,800 Acres Land Value in Pengerang's RAPID at only 82 cents psf when it should be at least Rm50 to Rm80 psf.

Now Let's take a look at MphbCap's 2 Flamingo Hotels - both in strategic location. One only 4.3km from Petronas Twin Towers. And one in Tanjung Bungah, Penang (just meters away from the popular Penang Swimming Club in Affluent Tanjung Bungah.

1) AMPANG FLAMINGO HOTEL BY THE LAKE

Not everyone is familiar with MphbCap's Pengerang Lands but almost all Malaysians should know where is Petronas Twin Towers.

And Ampang Hotel Flamingo is located just 4.3km from KLCC Twin Towers. Another Iconic Building "PAVILION MALL" Is also 4.3km away.

Now let's take a look at the Book Value of Flamingo Hotel in Ampang, KL.

It sits on 12.28 acres prime lands. Lease hold until year 2091. Book value is Rm32.82 Millions.

Now to get its price psf.

12.28 x 43550 = 534,794 sq ft.

So 32,820,000 divides by 534,794 = Rm61.36 psf.

Amazing! Only Rm61.36 per sq ft Prime land only 4.3km from Petronas Twin Towers!!

Lands near Petronas Twin Towers current cost Rm3,500 to Rm4,000 psf or more.

So 61.36 divides by 4,000 = 1.5% ony?

The Prime Commercial Leasehold Lands of Flamingo Hotel has a value of less than 2% compared to those only 5 to 8 minutes away?



Hmmm?

Let's see. Last time I visited PAVILION MALL In Bukit Bintang, KL (Also 4.3km away)

Parking near the front lobby is Rm12 per hour. So 5 hours parking rate equals to 1 sq ft land of Hotel Flamingo?

That's the Book Value of 12.28 Lands Only. What about the Hotel, the furnishings, the lake, the boat house?

How much will the Total Assets Worth if Fully Revalued?

See the Map below:

2 Highways Pass By It For Great Access and Convenience:

KUALA LUMPUR TO AMPANG ELEVATED HIGHWAY

FLYOVER JALAN ULU KELANG - CONNECTING TO KESAS HIGHWAY

These Prime Lands Are Ripe For A Massive Make Over or Redevelopment!!







Below is a Night Picture of the Majestic Ampang Flamingo Hotel By The Lake.

Hotel guests are allowed to go fishing for tilapia, haruan, toman or freshwater patin fish.









2) PENANG FLAMINGO HOTEL BY THE BEACH IN TANJUNG BUNGAH

It sits on 101,471 sq ft Grade A Prime Beach Lands. Book Value is RM42.218 millions

Let's calculate its land value:

42,218,000 divides by 101,471 = Rm416 psf.

Current Beach Land Prices in Tanjung Bungah are between Rm800 to Rm1,000 psf.

So these Prime Lands Are Valued At 50% Less.

What About The Hotel, The Earth Works, The Piling Works, The Furnishings and Fittings for the 280 Rooms?

How Much is the Actual Worth if Revalued?

[转贴] 國際大鱷千億襲港 揭索羅斯狙擊財技(詳盡版)

旗下公司管理逾二百五十億美元(約二千億港元)資產,曾屢次狙擊港股的大鱷索羅斯,將在港設立有四十到五十名員工的辦事處,他的兩名得力助手亦計劃長駐香江。

大鱷襲港,據知中港兩地監管機構已密切關注,尤其內地即將開放股指期貨市場,更加對國際大鱷嚴陣以待,怕他在股票市場興風作浪。

○八年金融海嘯令對沖基金元氣大傷,不少已經撤出香港,但隨着近期市場回穩,除索羅斯外,已有十多家對沖基金準備登陸香港,其中不乏較大規模的基金,是繼九七年以來另一次「盛世」。本刊特分析索羅斯等對沖基金的炒股手法。

投資高手紛紛來港,股市勢將更波動,預料散戶要在股市搵食將更加困難。

近期的確有不少海外金融機構在香港找辦公室,其中很多是不太出名的資產管理公司,相信這些都是對沖基金!」一名寫字樓地產代理稱。而最近有一金融機構,租用了國金二期八、九千呎辦公室,有傳是索羅斯基金公司來港設辦事處。他指出,對沖基金一向租用辦公室的規模較小,今次索羅斯租用這麼大面積,實在較為罕見。

據了解,索羅斯已準備派遣一行四、五十人的團隊,於第一季進駐香港,包括從紐約調派兩名基金經理James Chang及Dai Jixin來港坐鎮。前者曾任老虎基金的亞洲董事總經理,去年十一月才加盟索羅斯基金公司,後者則為華裔背景,已跟隨索羅斯九年。


1.先出口術,唱淡一地方的經濟及股市。


2.在外匯市場沽空當地的貨幣,令匯價急跌,製造金融不穩及資金流走的現象。


3.在股票期貨市場大手沽空獲利。
國金二期設辦事處

知情人士稱,今次索羅斯來港,仍未向證監會提出申請。根據《證券及期貨條例》,如果索羅斯擬在港從事資產管理業務,並在港招收客戶,就必須向證監會領牌,但相信索羅斯先會設研究部,發掘在中國投資的商機,所以暫時不用申請證監會牌照。

「現時索羅斯的客人主要在歐美,未必需要即時在亞洲吸客。不過現在投資中國是大勢所趨,你說投資中國,如果指令遠在歐洲、美國進行,所得的只是傳媒報道的第二手、三手資料。若在香港設立投資大本營,可較快收到內地的訊息,甚至做中資股的公司訪問,得到公司的第一手資料。」知情人士稱。

一向在國際投資市場呼風喚雨的索羅斯,在中國投資較為落後,較大宗的投資為九五年斥資二千五百萬美元參股海南航空B股,成為單一最大外資股東。而曾與索羅斯一同創立量子基金,有商品大王之稱的羅傑斯,早已公開表示看好中國市場,認為人民幣長遠必大升,並且有意在中國定居。

索羅斯一向對中國投資沒有偏好,兩年前仍稱印度比中國有較好的投資機會。但經歷○八年金融海嘯後,他不得不承認美國經濟已經元氣大傷,中國成了金融危機的贏家。「金融危機只是從外圍影響中國。中國有外匯、有貿易順差,將成為世界經濟發電機之一。」索羅斯在去年十月曾說。

事實上,索羅斯多年來在世界各地尋找投資機會,然後重點狙擊,也無需要在當地先設立辦事處,今次高調在港設基地,相信重點是放眼內地股市的投資機會。

「中國股市仍然不是對外開放,對沖基金短時間有機會呼風喚雨,實在可能性很低,相信是為長遠打入中國作準備。」一名本地基金經理說。


索羅斯來港,相信是放眼內地市場,尤其是內地即將開放股指期貨,令投資機會增加。


由於憧憬人民幣升值,令外資不斷流入中港市場。
中港證監嚴陣以待

一般相信,對沖基金在內地可以炒兩個概念,其一是人民幣升值,其次就是憧憬內地即將開放股指期貨和股票沽空。但人民幣目前仍未是國際流通貨幣,其幣值的升跌,很大程度受國家的政策影響,大手買入博升值並不容易,不合對沖基金胃口。

至於股指期貨,其開始的形式及日期還未定。由於目前外資想買賣A股,必須透過合資格境外機構投資者(QFII)的渠道,額度多少全由中央控制。股票期貨開放在即,剛好有國際大鱷進駐香港,有消息指中央已嚴陣以待,怕開放初期令股市帶來震動,所以已有意收緊QFII的額度。所以索羅斯來港初期,目標相信是在本港上市的中資股。

本港股市卻是全球最自由市場之一,索羅斯來港,充滿了搵食機會。市場人士稱,香港市場流通量高,對大戶監管相對寬鬆,容易成為大鱷的提款機。「例如金融海嘯最嚴重的時候,歐美各國都禁止投資者沽空,唯獨香港一直都沒有限制。咁樣等於完全不設防,任由大鱷在這裏玩。」一名華資經紀稱。

雖然未知索羅斯來港玩法會如何,但從過去對沖基金染指港股的經驗,相信會令股市更加波動。「有更多高手進場,股市就更加難玩。等於巴西、西班牙隊都來了香港打,香港隊基本就冇得打!」豐盛資產管理董事黃國英說。

「對沖基金的手法,就是做事好迅速,股票三年的目標價,可以三日就到位。例如最近炒證券股,隻大福證券(0665)就連升幾日,每日升幾成,就有點似對沖基金的手法!」他說。散戶見大升一日未敢去追,但當見到連升兩三日後,才去高追,結果往往是接火棒。


傳獲索羅斯入股的龍湖地產,上市後股價十分波動,圖為公司發展的樓盤。
炒股一步到位

從索羅斯去年入股的兩隻新股利邦(0891)及龍湖(0960),可見其炒股手法。通常對沖基金選擇一些認購反應不太熱烈的股份,例如由利豐分拆出來的內地服裝零售公司利邦,去年十月招股,只錄得三十多倍超額認購,就更方便對沖基金圖利。當時市場預計利邦上市後未必會大升,在上市首日開市的競價時段,原本一直作價約為二元一角,比招股價一元六角半高出兩成多,但最後一分鐘突然被嘜上三元開市,上市首日股價已大波動,最低跌至近二元,最高升近三元三角,上下波幅超過五成。「首日已炒上炒落,令很多散戶的貨震出來。後來利邦在二元五角附近徘徊一段時間後再開車,最高已炒上接近四元五角。」一名熟悉炒家玩法的經紀稱。

至於內房股龍湖地產,去年十月招股時,正值市場對內房新股並不熱衷,認購反應只屬一般。上市首日,龍湖只是以接近招股價的七元開市,但即日股價已有異動,大幅炒上至八元,其後半個月內最高炒上至接近十元,才開始在高位派貨。其餘他有認購的新股,還包括民生銀行(1988)、利郎(1234)及中國鐵鈦(893)等。
全方位立體進攻

作為宏觀對沖基金的代表人物,索羅斯另一擅長的策略,就是全方位立體進攻,例如九八年亞洲金融風暴,藉狙擊港元,再狂沽期指圖利。不過現時的環境,要炒港元貶值較難,大戶較常見的手法,就是經常製造大上大落的現象。「大戶的手法,通常是不斷將大市炒上炒落,令投資者對這個波幅習以為常,然後再突然間大殺倉,殺散戶一個措手不及。」一位資深港股經紀稱。

有時大戶會在壞消息出了之後,不即時殺倉,反而製造反彈的假象,再在高位累積淡倉後,再殺投資者一個措手不及。「好似去年底杜拜危機,及一月內地加存款準備金,大市在急跌後都有大反彈,令投資者以為壞消息已充分反映,之後股市才突然大跌,令散戶難以防備!」

索羅斯另一策略,就是擅於出口術。他經常利用個人往績及知名度,以預測大市走勢為名,接受傳媒訪問,引導投資者向他預設的方向。例如去年金融海嘯後全力唱淡英國經濟,其姪兒管理的基金則同時大手沽空英國富時指數,賺個盤滿缽滿。不過,當他獲利之後,又隨時一百八十度轉軚,好像他去年中唱淡英美股市,一個月後即指全球經濟正在回升,調頭唱好,預計美股年底前會向好。這樣使市場情緒不斷受影響,對沖基金容易殺散戶一個措手不及。

索羅斯九八年曾狙擊港股,當年本港三大財金高官合作,策劃以外匯基金入市擊退大鱷。
成名戰 狙擊英鎊

八十歲的索羅斯,一九七○年創立量子基金,其後十年每年平均回報超過四成,令他成為最著名的對沖基金經理。他的成名戰,就是於九二年大量沽空英鎊,賭英倫銀行最終會將英鎊脫離歐洲貨幣體系,從而令英鎊貶值。當年九月十六日的「黑色星期三」,索羅斯沽空英鎊的金額達一百億美元,最後英倫銀行被迫讓英鎊貶值,索羅斯一鋪勁賺十一億美元。

索羅斯另一為人熟悉的傑作,就是九七年亞洲金融風暴期間狙擊亞洲貨幣,先後令泰國、馬來西亞、印尼等國家貨幣大跌,金融市場出現震盪。當時市傳索羅斯曾大舉沽空港元,炒港元與美元脫鈎,香港金管局為了應戰,大幅提高隔夜拆借利率,希望令炒家退卻。不過當時對沖基金實在是全方位的炒作,借港元大跌製造市場恐慌,然後藉着沽空期指圖利。

由於知道大鱷的焦點在股市,於是港府在九八年破天荒以外匯基金入市,狂買港股,令恒指在當年的最低位急反彈,港府及後聲稱入市行動非常成功,擊退狙擊港股的大鱷。

○八年金融海嘯後,引發大量對沖基金撤出香港,例如○五年領匯(0823)上市即買入大量股份,準備有狙擊行動的TCI,本來有意東來大舉出擊,並且買入新世界(0017)、廈門港(3378)等股份,但其後金融海嘯令TCI資產大縮水,被迫逐步撤出亞洲,並且不斷減持手上的港股。而同期大舉投資港股的對沖基金如Prime Capital、Citadel及OZ Management等,近年已不斷減持港股,在港辦公室的規模亦縮小。


雷曼爆煲引發金融海嘯,索羅斯認為是由於過去二十五年所建立的超級泡沫爆破而成。
對沖基金捲土重來

不過近日歐美對投資銀行收取花紅徵收重稅,促成更多對沖基金駐港。「歐洲改例後,例如英國就向投資銀行徵收百分之五十花紅附加稅,很多對沖基金怕要抽重稅,於是擁入香港設辦事處!」一名對沖基金界人士稱。

現在經濟好轉,已有不少對沖基金回流本港,不過今次回流的,主要是歷史較久,較具規模的對沖基金,而一些規模較小的可能在金融海嘯損失嚴重,已無餘力再回亞洲市場。目前對沖基金在亞洲主要有兩個選擇,一是新加坡,一是香港,由於新加坡的條例更寬鬆,更能吸引對沖基金,至於基金選擇香港,主要是放眼大陸市場。

美銀美林亞洲融資銷售主管DanMcNicholas稱,正協助超過十二家對沖基金公司來亞洲設立辦事處,每家對沖基金公司管理的金額都是以十億美元計。「金融海嘯之後,不少金融公司都削減在港規模,但最近都有重新擴充,大概是最差時候規模只剩高峰期一半,現在已回升到七成半。」一名寫字樓代理稱。
知識庫──對沖基金

對沖基金最廣泛的定義,是指一切有別傳統基金的另類投資。傳統基金透過買股票、債券等投資工具,一般只能買升,至於對沖基金則可透過買賣期貨等衍生工具,買升及買跌,或從不同市場作交叉交易,例如近年十分流行的利差交易(Carry Trade),即以接近零息借入日圓或美元,然後用作投資股市或商品圖利。

不過,索羅斯最著名的是「宏觀對沖基金」,就是藉着宏觀經濟情況,尋找投資機會,他的投資名句是,只有亂局才會出投資機會。

索羅斯投資哲學



索羅斯說過,金融市場盛衰有時,資金流向進退不定,市場哪裏亂,哪裏就有賺錢機會。局勢愈亂,愈是膽大心細的投資者表現的時候,盡見其特立獨行的一面。

索羅斯的想法跟傳統主流格格不入。在他的著作《金融煉金術》中,索羅斯指出,投資市場本質上是非理性的,成功的投資理論絕非科學,而是一種煉金術。他說:「中古時期的煉金術士,認為自己有能力操控物質的組合,利用唸咒試圖將普通金屬變成黃金,這當然不可能。不過,在金融市場上就可能行得通,因為咒語通常能夠影響人的決定。」

換言之,索羅斯更重視人的主觀因素,多於理性基本面。他愛打「開口牌」,憑着個人知名度預測大市走勢。不少人認為他包藏禍心,企圖影響投資者的看法,製造混亂上下其手。其實在索羅斯看來,股價既反映基本價值,亦反映投資者的情緒,是一種微妙的「反射關係」,因而造成市場偏差。市場趨勢,市場偏差與股價構成微妙的互動,決定了大市的升跌循環。能夠把握這個循環,就能夠把握賺錢的機會。

因此,索羅斯很多時跟市場對着幹,而且予人善變無常的印象。他的助手曾這樣評價他:「索羅斯習慣憑感覺行動,先落注,再由我們去求證。」

索羅斯生平



http://eastweek.my-magazine.me/index.php?aid=5232

(Icon) Luxchem (3) - Acquisition of New Asset Delights Me

I wrote about Luxchem in January and July 2015 respectively.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/67652.jsp

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/80653.jsp

I like this company very much. It is a beneficiary of low oil price, but only exports approximately 20% of its products. This means that I don't need to constantly worry about the impact of Ringgit strengthening. My only complain is that it seemd to lack a growth story.

However yesterday, Luxchem announced that it is acquiring 100% stake in Transform Master Sdn Bhd (TMSB) for a purchase consideration of RM46 mil to be satisfied by the following :-

(a) RM36.8 mil cash; and

(b) RM9.2 mil new Luxchem shares (5.2 mil shares @ RM1.77).

TMSB seemed to complement Luxchem's existing business of selling chemicals to glove manufacturers (Luxchem's main business is actually in manufacturing and trading of Unsaturated Polyester Resin). The following description is extracted from the announcement :-


















It seemed that Luxchem forgot to include financial details of TMSB in its announcement. Very likely this will trigger queries by Bursa. Let's wait for the company to furnish the information.

On a separate note, Luxchem is expected to announce its December 2015 quarterly result by end of this week (it always releases its result approximately 1 month from close of reporting period).

Like i3 forum members like to say, "I bought pop corn already".

AirAsia to gain from current lower jet fuel prices

KUCHING: Analysts at TA Securities Holdings Bhd (TA Research) upgraded its earnings projection for AirAsia Bhd (AirAsia) following a drop in jet fuel prices.

According to the Singapore Jet Fuel Swaps – a jet fuel price indicator – jet fuel prices closed at its lowest level since November 2003. Year to date, it has resumed the fall by another 24.8 per cent to US$33.1 per barrel on Jan 22, 2016 following a drop of 38.4 per cent in 2015, mirroring the downtrend in crude oil price.

Accordingly, TA Research upgraded its financial year 2016 (FY16) to FY18 earnings projections for AirAsia by 1.9 to 8.9 per cent after the change in assumptions for jet fuel price to average at US$50 per barrel for 2016 to 2018 as compared with our previous forecasts of US$65 per barrel for 2016 to 2018.

This also includes a 90 per cent of cost reductions from lower jet fuel price assumptions to be passed on to passengers through lower airfares.

“Although we are only one month into 2016, we reckon that our jet fuel price assumptions of average US$65/bbl for 2016 could be overly bullish, as Iran’s oil exports, after the economic sanctions were lifted, are expected to accelerate the glut in the market,” the firm said in a report yesterday.

“As such, we are revising our jet fuel price assumptions lower in the advent of revised budget 2016 announcement, which the government is expected to trim its expenditure based on a more realistic oil price assumption.”

Meanwhile, TA Research called on investors not to “read too much” into the AirAsia privatisation.

The news about privatising AirAsia first came to the market in October 2015 and recently repeated by AirAsia X, citing that taking the carriers – both AirAsia and AirAsia x – private is an option but both AirAsia and AirAsia X have not received any offers.

“Again, we do not spend much time to look into it as we believe taking AirAsia, one of the world’s best low-cost airlines, private is not an easy task without roping in strategic investors like the Employee Provident Fund, who has a strong financial muscle, to assume the mounting liabilities that AirAsia currently has.

“We upgrade AirAsia’s target price to RM1.72 and upgrade to buy from sell.”

新產品需求看好‧明試一度彈升8.4%

2016-01-28 09:05

(吉隆坡27日訊)RF無線網絡設施自動測試配備(ATE)設計商明試控股(AEMULUS,0181,創業板科技組)新產品需求獲看好,帶動股價一度反彈8.42%。

該股早盤以51仙高開,一度走揚4仙或8.42%至51.5仙,閉市報48仙,漲0.5仙或1.05%。

聯昌研究看好新興市場4G網絡接納度增加,有望帶動無線器材測試配備需求成長。

明試控股主要客戶Avago科技預測,未來3年智能手機對RF的需求將每年成長20%。

另外,雲端運算也將成為該公司新成長引擎,因專為企業市場而設的新測試配備Amoeba 4600已成功研發,於2015年3月開始輸出。

聯昌研究預計,該產品在2016財政年的營業額貢獻將達40%,在Amoeba 7600及4600測試器材更高輸出量推動下,營業額料強勁成長,給予“加碼”評級及70仙目標價。

該公司60%營業額來自海外市場,管理層計劃拓展至東亞及美國,目前已在台灣設立新分行。


股價:48仙
總股本:4億3千885萬股
市值:2億1千100萬令吉
30天日均成交量:462萬股
最新季度營業額:872萬1千令吉
最新季度盈虧:213萬4千令吉
每股淨資產:15.4仙
本益比:36.34倍
週息率:-
大股東:伍尚明(18.74%)(星洲日報/財經)

點看全文:http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/130433#ixzz3yVtOvk14

Importance of Free Cash Flow

DEFINITION of 'Free Cash Flow - FCF': A measure of financial performance calculated as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. Free cash flow (FCF) represents the cash that a company is able to generate after laying out the money required to maintain or expand its asset base. Free cash flow is important because it allows a company to pursue opportunities that enhance shareholder value. Without cash, it's tough to develop new products, make acquisitions, pay dividends and reduce debt. FCF is calculated as:EBIT(1-Tax Rate) + Depreciation & Amortization - Change in Net Working Capital - Capital Expenditure. It can also be calculated by taking operating cash flow and subtracting capital expenditures.

Earnings can often be clouded by accounting gimmicks, but it's tougher to fake cash flow. For this reason, some investors believe that FCF gives a much clearer view of the ability to generate cash (and thus profits).It is important to note that negative free cash flow is not bad in itself. If free cash flow is negative, it could be a sign that a company is making large investments. If these investments earn a high return, the strategy has the potential to pay off in the long run. The first step in projecting future cash flow is to understand the past of its cash flow statements.

One very useful website is http://www.gurufocus.com/, where you could read the calculated projected FCF and past FCF in a list. Let's examine few examples:



As you can read Pantech projected FCF is RM0.86, which is pretty impressive, note that its Graham Number is RM1.03.



ad, P

Kumpulan Fima projected FCF is RM5.44.



Parkson projected FCF is RM4.45.



Looking back at the history of the FCF is also important. Here is Eng Kah, a strong FCF company.



HeveaBoard is also a very strong FCF company.



Jobstreet not only strong in FCF, but also has a very high dividend yield.



Lii Hen started to have strong FCF from 2011.



Not bad for Matrix, especially a property developer, also a high dividend yield company.



SCGM is also going strong from 2011.

And many more gems in Bursa Malaysia.....

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/sharebuyback/90554.jsp

Beaten down O&G stocks offer buying opportunities

KUALA LUMPUR: The volatility in crude oil and fall in oil and gas (O&G) share prices have opened a window of opportunity to trade beaten down stocks, according to Maybank Investment Bank Research.

“We upgrade Icon, Perisai Petroleum Teknologi Bhd, SapuraKencana Petroleum Bhd (SapKen) and UMW O&G to trading buys with unchanged target price. These stocks, in our view, are oversold, attractively valued, high beta proxies to any potential rebound in oil prices and weaker US dollar,” Maybank IB said.

The research house said the steep correction in share prices offers periodic, alpha opportunities to pick up oversold, undervalued and sentiment depressed stocks.

“In our view, concerns over potential kitchen sinking exercises and incoming poor fourth quarter 2015 results have largely been priced in, from the recent selldown. Valuations of certain stocks like Icon, Perisai, SapKen and UMWOG have turned attractive, with some trading below 1x EV/replacement value,” Maybank IB said.

The 16% fall in crude oil price in 2016 year-to-date (dated Brent) to sub-US$30 per barrel, lifting of international sanction against Iran, Petronas’ RM50bil capital expenditure cut and stronger US dollar have sustained the volatility and weakness in the O&G sector.

“All the O&G stocks under our coverage have experienced a 7%-21% fall in share prices in 2016 year-to-date and underperformed the KLCI.

“With the steep plunge in oil price, the likelihood of an asset impairment exercise in fourth quarter 2015 is looking more likely. Icon, Perisai, Sapken and UMWOG are possible candidates, in our view. Nonetheless, these remain accounting and non-cash flow item,” Maybank IB said.

Singapore denies Soh Chee Wen request for return of passport

SINGAPORE: Malaysian dealmaker Soh Chee Wen's (pic) request to return to Malaysia was turned down by the courts on Wednesday, after the prosecution said that charges may be brought against him soon.

The Malaysian businessman, who has not been charged to date, has been helping the CAD with its sweeping probe launched in April 2014 into October 2013 penny stock crash that wiped out $8bil (RM23bil) in market value.

But the prosecution has described Soh, 57, the possible "mastermind" in what has been called the biggest securities fraud to date.

Investigations against Soh are "near the tailend" and charges may be brought by the end of the year, the prosecution added.

The authorities are investigating possible violations of the Securities and Futures Act, stemming from alleged trading irregularities in the shares of Blumont Group, LionGold Corp and Asiasons Capital, now called Attilan Group.

The investigation has been ongoing for about one year and nine months, Soh said in affidavits. He said he has given more than 800 pages in statements containing more than 3,000 questions and undergone "many statement takings that lasted 10 hours and longer".

Soh is out on police bail of $500,000 (RM1.5mil), and has agreed, as conditions for his travel, to give his itinerary and overseas contact details and surrender his passport to the Singapore High Commission in Kuala Lumpur on his arrival.

Represented by Tan Chee Meng, SC, deputy chairman of WongPartnership, Soh, whose passport has been impounded by the CAD, is asking for permission to travel to Malaysia from Feb 6-23 to visit his ailing mother and to attend his elder son's wedding on Feb 20.

He said his mother is bedridden after suffering a severe fracture of the spine, was deteriorating in health and has begun displaying early signs of dementia.

He said in his affidavit that his requests for the release of his passport so he can travel to Malaysia has been repeatedly denied by the CAD.

Soh noted that "close cooperation between the law enforcement agencies in Singapore and Malaysia would make absconding while on bail an extremely foolish decision".

Saying he has "no intention of leaving Singapore and Malaysia... to escape these investigations and the consequences", he said has been serving as chief operations officer and acting chief executive of Dongshan Group, while helping the CAD.

He said he has committed to helping turn around Dongshan, a delisted Singapore firm in distress.

The three penny stocks had surged by more than 800 per cent in less than nine months before plunging by between 91% and 96% in October 2013, wiping out $8bil (RM23bil) in market value in three days.

Market confidence was shaken, with a 60% fall in the average daily traded volume on the Singapore Exchange in the one year period after September 2013, according to SGX data.

Trading value over the same period fell by more than 30%, as crash made investors more cautious, particularly about small- and mid-cap firms.

Since the probe began into several mainboard-listed firms - excluding Asiasons - and their subsidiaries, as well as several key executives, a number have suffered hefty financial losses and issued profit warnings. – The Straits Times/Asia News Network

CIMB Research retains Add for Syarikat Takaful

KUALA LUMPUR: CIMB Equities Research is maintaining its Add recommendation for Syarikat Takaful Malaysia (STM) due to the potential re-rating catalysts.

The research house had on Thursday cited STM’s exposure to the swift-expanding Takaful market, bright earnings prospects and high returns on equity (ROE) of 25% to 26% in FY16-17.

“We retain our target price of RM4.54, derived from the dividend discount model with the parameters of cost of equity of 10% (risk-free rate of 4% and market risk premium of 5.5%), and terminal growth rate of 4%,” it said.

CIMB Research said STM’s FY15 net profit was spot on with its net profit forecast, while ahead of consensus by about 7%.

However, the full-year net DPS of 7.35 sen was below the projected 10 sen.

“We are particularly positive on the strong financial performance in the 4Q15, despite the unfavourable economic environment. Our FY1617 EPS forecasts are largely unchanged,” it said.

STM’s 4Q15 profit before tax rose at a healthy 8.1% on-year, primarily driven by higher wakalah fees from the 3.8% on-year increase in gross earned contributions (premiums), and a 382% on-year jump in other income at the takaful operator level.

Its 4Q15 net profit grew by a wider margin of 54.3% on-year due to the lower tax rate of 14.4% in 4Q15 vs. 40% in 4Q14.

Based on the recent amendments to the Income Tax Act, the wakalah fees received by shareholders’ fund from family takaful business is non-taxable.

“Strong net profit growth in FY15 STM’s net profit increased by a commendable 17.7% to RM163.3mil in FY15. This was achieved on the back of (1) an increase of 7.3% in gross earned contributions to RM1.52bil and (2) a drop in the tax rate from 25.7% in FY14 to 20% in FY15.

“Overall, the combined claims ratio of the company rose marginally from 53.2% in FY14 to 54.5% in FY15. Cost-wise, the management expenses at the takaful-operator level advanced by 15.4% in FY15,” it said.

CIMB Research said the family takaful unit contributed a substantial 69% of STM’s total gross earned contributions in FY15, with the remaining 31% coming from the general takaful business. The family takaful unit also fared better in terms of growth, with a 10.6% expansion in FY15.

Conversely, the general takaful gross earned contributions fell by 2.8% in FY15. This substantiates our positive views on the prospects for its family takaful business.

周顯:股民未絕望 跌市未夠喉

周顯:股民未絕望 跌市未夠喉
2016年1月28日

【明報專訊】由於股市大跌,所有朋友都死得只剩下一口氣,是個活死人了。一名經紀同我說,很多客戶都問他,究竟怎麼辦,何時跌完?


我的回答是,通常股民這樣問的時候,股市還未跌完,要等到他們完全死心,完全不問的時候,才是真正的熊市完結,在我的作品中,這叫做「禁室培慾」,即是對人生已經完全絕望了,關注的已經不再是能否獲救,而是今天吃的是什麼飯菜,電視的節目好不好看,諸如此類。

近期最豬的轉貼莫過於大陸的那名律師陳光武,被報紙訪問時說,桂民海在2005年醉駕撞死人時,中國並沒有醉駕法(按﹕醉駕法是在2011年通過的),也沒有醉酒的國家標準。這居然還有不少香港人讚賞和轉貼,可知這個城市的人的智力程度。

駕車撞死人 有冇飲酒都係罪

查有關醉酒駕駛的法例,不論在世界哪個地方,主要是懲罸那些喝酒超標,但卻並沒有觸犯交通法例的人。這即是說,只要你喝醉了酒,開車便是犯法,不管你有沒有犯錯,開得多麼守規矩,都有罪。

但是,在沒有醉駕法的任何國家,只要開車撞死人,就是司機的疏忽,不是路人的錯,不管有沒有喝酒,都是有罪,都有可能被判坐牢。

桂民海在撞死沈晏嬋案件初審時,法官是判雙方都有錯,因為沈晏嬋是橫過馬路,桂民海雖然醉駕,但卻無罪,所以根本與醉駕無關,自然不不涉及醉駕法。後來沈母在實地做了多個實驗,去證明桂民海當時是超速了(不是87KM,而是110以上),上訴才判決桂民海有罪。

當然了,對方橫過公路,自己則超速駕駛,這是犯了「交通肇事罪」,被判兩年但緩刑,這是不是太重,就是另一回事了。不過我認為,此案桂民海已經「坦白從寬」,把所有他聯絡的人等和秘密都已供出來,就是坐牢,相信也是在賓館坐的那種,而且很快就會保外就醫,至於他欠沈家的100萬元,相信也會有人為他搞掂,不用付一分錢。

[周顯 投資二三事]

http://www.mpfinance.com/htm/finance/20160128/columnist/en30_en30.htm

王冠一﹕重振油價 要問過美國

王冠一﹕重振油價 要問過美國
2016年1月27日

【明報專訊】上周兩艘來自美國的油輪正式抵達歐洲,這是美國全面解除石油出口禁令以來,首次再有美國石油接觸海外市場。據聞另外兩艘美國油輪正在大西洋駛往法國及意大利的途上,合計原油付運量達120萬桶。

毋庸置疑,美國出產的石油將會陸續輸往世界各地,只是現階段美國石油未見有特別的價格優勢(WTI與布蘭特價格相若),全球各地的主要產油國仍有最後機會作出應變。否則當WTI價格折讓擴大,美國石油隨時會水銀瀉地般注滿世界每一角落。

沙特拒當減產先鋒

油組(OPEC)秘書長最近承認,單靠油組內部減產,已不足以扭轉國際油價的跌勢,並且公開呼籲,只有非油組的產油大國亦同意協調減產,才有望重新穩住油價。俄羅斯第二大石油公司Lukoil已表明,只要得到俄國政府支持,集團願意跟油組磋商減產的可能性。

不過,減產意味有可能喪失一定的市場份額,尤其產油大國伊朗剛剛獲准重返市場,此刻又要求伊朗配合限制石油出口,簡直是天方夜譚。伊朗的死敵、油組一哥沙特亦已表明,除非各大非油組產油大國皆同意協調減產,否則沙特不會走出第一步。

更重要的是,諸如俄羅斯這些倚重石油收益的產油大國,貿貿然減產去托價,「得價失量」,不單對增加庫房收益未必有幫助,反而會影響石油企業的財政,政府為保石油企業,自然會加重財政負擔。因此,俄國最大國營石油公司Rosneft,至今未就協調減產表態。

美國有意奪取油價定價權

就俄羅斯而言,與其直接減少產量,倒不如考慮仿效墨西哥政府一般,利用金融工具對冲油價下跌風險。然而,要求財困的俄國政府在油價如此低殘的環境下,才撥出預算每年花錢對冲油價下跌,是否很笨?要知道,假如油價維持現有低位,俄國石油儲備基金,預計今年底便會耗盡。俄羅斯政府面對的財政壓力實在不容忽視。

油價如斯低殘,一眾產油大國已開始放風,呼籲協調減產,雖然彼此仍各懷鬼胎,缺乏互信基礎,但至少為重整石油市場秩序邁出重要一步。只不過,協調減產以重振油價能否成事,關鍵角色已不再是昔日的沙特與俄羅斯,而是新冒起的美國身上。誰估到美國奪取國際油價定價權的野心正在慢慢實現?

■本周環球金融市場預測:

WTI (期貨):28至34美元

歐元(現貨):1.0700至1.1000美元

日經(現貨):16500至17500點

轉載自《王冠一財經頻道》周一會員通訊;更多數據可參考《冠一多空指標》(www.c1syndex.com)

wongsir.com.hk

冠一資產管理 首席策略師

[王冠一 國際財經]

http://www.mpfinance.com/htm/finance/20160127/columnist/en62_en62.htm

Wednesday, January 27, 2016

I favour accumulating good blue chips at least 12 months after index has peaked

"I favour accumulating good blue chips at least 12 months after index has peaked"

Written by Observer2 Published: 18 January 2016

AFTER EVERY BULL market comes a bear market. I believe we are now moving into a classic bear market scenario together with China and USA.

In a bear market, it is easier to pick prospective winners and multi-baggers, especially towards the lower half of the bear market.

I have learned the hard way that it is not wise for a small investor like me to buy and hold stocks during the first 12 months after the market peak (STI peaked in April 2015 this time). “Buy & Hold Strategy for long term or forever” is clearly not suitable for everyone.

According to Bloomberg Billionaires Index, 47 billionaires lost one billion or more each just in the first week of 2016 US market tumble; Bill Gates lost $4.5 billion. All of them are filthy rich and such paper losses are nothing to them. It all boils down to one’s investment objectives, holding power and risk tolerance.

Personally, I favour accumulating good blue chips at least 12 months after the Index reached a peak. I would then be able to see a full blown bear market with good stocks selling at well over 30% to 50% discounts, and adopt a policy of accumulating more at lower prices.

In this way, I can avoid buying too early and too high (catching big falling knives) and also avoid missing out on rare great buying opportunities during the lower half of the bear market because of the natural great fear or phobia (inherent in most investors) of buying a stock only to see it become cheaper.


For stock picking during a bear market, it is always wise to pick the leaders of the respective business sectors.

Waiting for Global Invacom's satellite business to pick up.As for small and mid-cap stocks (having higher risks but higher rewards than blue chips), I am keeping an eye on –

1. Ezion and KrisEnergy for eventual recovery of oil price further down the road.

2. Global Invacom for its business to pick up. (See: GLOBAL INVACOM: 50% of market cap is net cash)

More prospective multi-baggers could surface as the bear market progresses but one must be mindful that stocks get bashed down for good reasons; however, if they do not go into demise after 18 to 24 months into a bear market, their recovery prospects should be good, especially if the companies are well-managed and in cyclical businesses.


I decided to sell off all my stock holdings in mid-2015 (except for a few lots of shares that I wanted to keep for the purpose of receiving annual reports and attending AGMs) after taking into consideration the following factors:

» Market Time Clock

The US market has already been in a bull run for over 6 years help along by all the QEs. The DJIA had risen from around 7,000 in March 2009 to a record high of around 18,300 in May 2015, a rise of over 2.5x. The S&P 500 rose from around 680 to 2,130, a rise of 3x.

The market might be viewed then as being at the upper segment of the bull market. With the economic slowdown in China, Europe and many other countries and also the downturn in commodities prices like copper, iron ore and crude oil, it would be difficult to envisage a continuation of the US bull run especially if company earnings are slowing down or declining.

Hence, the risk of a market downturn would be a great reality.

Although the Singapore market has been an ardent follower of US market it failed miserably in climbing to record high like its American counterpart this time round. Our poor showing could probably be due to the many past S-chips “scandals” adversely affecting market sentiment as well as the failure of the Shanghai and Hong Kong markets to also hit record high.

Under the circumstances, it does not need an expert to know that the ending of QE in America and the expected rise in interest rate would be a good excuse for a market correction to take place especially if China, the world number two economy, continued to slow down.

» Risks & Rewards

All investments entail taking risks. It does not take an expert to know that when stock prices are low, such as during the lower half of a bear market, the downside risk is also low but the upside reward is high. The opposite would thus be true when stocks are at the upper end of the bull market. Hence, investors should strive to invest during the lower half of the bull market whenever possible. They should reduce their holdings or stay out of the market at the high end of a bull market, unless they are very long term or “forever” investors.

History has shown that most investors make money in a bull market but only to give back part or all of their gains (realised and unrealised gains) in a bear market. I have been one such investor. I hope you are not.

May you have a successful & profitable new year and may all your stocks be able to jump up like monkeys this year! Happy Lunar Monkey Year!

These posts were originally posted by Observer2 in the NextInsight forum.

http://www.nextinsight.net/index.php/story-archive-mainmenu-60/938-2016/10521-i-favour-accumulating-good-blue-chips-at-least-12-months-after-index-peak

受惠低油價‧亞航財測上調

受惠低油價‧亞航財測上調
2016-01-27 08:49

(吉隆坡26日訊)飛機燃油價格跌至2003年11月以來最低水平,分析員預期亞洲航空(AIRASIA,5099,主板貿服組)可從低油價與無削價競爭的營運環境中受惠,因此調高財測、評級和目標價。

有關私有化問題,2015年10月市場先傳出亞洲航空私有化消息,後來再傳姐妹公司亞航X私有化,但兩航空公司並未收到任何獻議。(圖:法新社)

達證券說,新加坡飛機燃油價格自2015年跌38.4%;今年截至1月22日又挫24.8%至33.1美元。

該行原本預測2016至2018年的飛機油價為每桶65美元過高,如今下調至50美元,因伊朗解除製裁,將出口更多原油,加速整個原油市場之頹勢,加上90%的燃油成本削減,可透過低票價轉嫁至乘客,因此調高亞航2016至2018財政年財測1.9%至8.9%。

分析員調高目標價,由1令吉42仙調高至1令吉72仙,以反映目前航空公司無需面臨削價競爭,評級由“售出”提高至“買進”。

有關私有化問題,2015年10月市場先傳出亞洲航空私有化消息,後來再傳姐妹公司亞航X(AAX,5238,主板貿服組)私有化,但兩航空公司並未收到任何獻議。

私有化可能性低

達證券認為不必花太多時間探討亞洲航空私有化事宜,除非獲財務能力強如類似僱員公積金局(EPF)之策略投資者出手和願承擔其龐大負債。

私有化的合理價如何,達證券認為投資者可參照最近虎航(Tiger)和馬航(MAS)私有化之個案。

虎航和馬航未私有化前,兩航空公司過去5年之虧損累積達15億新元(約45億令吉)和55億令吉,這些虧損導致淨資產價剩餘0.08新元和14仙。

儘管航空公司負債龐大,新航和國庫控股各提出價0.41新元和27仙,各比公司的淨資產值高2至4.9倍。

亞航自2009年以來有利可圖,而且在亞洲成長展望良好,目前低原油價可使盈利更清晰可期。因此,任何獻購價若低於淨資產值的2倍,相信小股東將難於接受。

達證券預計亞洲航空淨資產值約為1令吉37仙,預計獻購價2令吉74仙小股東才會接受。

在虎航和馬航私有化個案中,兩者之獻議價各為最後閉市價之溢價32.2%和12.5%。

丹斯里東尼和拿督卡瑪魯丁總計在亞航持有19.1%股權,假定公積金局欲加入私有化亞航,累積持股可增至24.5%,仍低於掌控性的50%水平。

分析員相信亞航的私有化股價可高於新航私有化虎航之價格,以獲得控制性之溢價。

達證券說,獻議價為2令吉74仙,然而目標價則是獻議價的折價37%(1令吉72仙),這反映外資持股高達47.6%(截至去年12月)之投資風險,以及印尼業務因印尼盾繼續下跌之營運風險。(星洲日報/財經‧報導:張啟華)

點看全文:http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/130326#ixzz3yP4QNQRH
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兴业研究: 危机中找投资机会 股海5小遗珠逆市亮点

兴业研究: 危机中找投资机会 股海5小遗珠逆市亮点

财经新闻
财经 2016-01-26 10:10


(吉隆坡25日讯)在市场动荡经济放缓之际,虽然投资情绪涣散,然而,只要顺势而行也可找到投资机会,兴业研究点名的5只遗珠股就是最好的例子。

令吉贬值、美联储进一步升息、外资出走,以及中国经济增长放缓等风险,导致市场情绪不稳定,尽管如此,兴业研究高级经理林师伟仍看好受惠于美元走强、周息率高,以及基本面亮眼的5只“小遗珠”。



他日前出席马交所举办的“MarketplaceFair@Bursa”时指,该投行预计大马今年经济增长4.5%,而基建项目是关键推动力。

他表示,只要增长率不跌破4%,就不会出现经济危机。

种植股为黑马

不过,多项外围负面因素围绕着大马,相信股市的投资情绪持续疲弱,而富时隆综指在今年底目标为1775点。

至于各大领域,他增持航空、建筑、保健、种植等领域。

他强调,种植领域将会是黑马。

“虽然中国经济放缓,导致棕油需求减少,但是埃尔尼诺的效应,将提高棕油价格展望。”

此外,他也点出股海5只小遗珠,建议投资者可在这动荡的市场中买进。

嘉登(GADANG,9261)
8.74亿订单未入账

嘉登估值仍偏低,但基本面佳,如截至2015年10月订单合约达8亿7400万令吉,大部分来自炼油与石油化工综合发展(RAPID)和捷运工程,将会在2至3年内入账。

同时,营业额和盈利10年年均复增(CAGR)分别达16.8%和28%,意味着赚幅扩增。

此外,公司拥有发展总值达44亿令吉的项目。

新协利(SHL,6017)周息率达8%

新协利旗下项目位于双溪龙以及Alam Budiman。

位于双溪龙的Goodview Heights市镇计划,发展总值达15亿令吉,将推高净利。

公司在2016财年首9个月的扣除利息和税务前盈利(EBIT)赚幅达45.6%,相当高的水平。

目前,持有177英亩的地皮,是在20年前所购下的。

值得注意的是,周息率达8%。

OKA机构(OKA,7140)
赚幅升至13.1%

预制混凝土产品生产商OKA机构,受惠于西海岸大道(WCE)工程,且有机会获得防洪项目。

半年净利超预期

OKA机构2016财年首半年净利超越预期,且有较多高赚幅产品,而净利赚幅提高至13.1%。

目前,该公司合理估值为2016年本益比10倍,中小型建筑股在介于10至14倍之间交易。

新兴发资源(SHH,7412)受惠美元走强

实木家具生产商新兴发资源,有90%的产品出口至美国。

该公司所有营业额和25%的生产成本以美元计算,所以将从美元走强中受惠。

此外,该公司关注在较高赚幅的卧室家具。

虽然曾面对美国金融危机、橡胶木短缺,以及2010年的火灾事件等挑战,但新兴发资源资产负债表仍稳健。

美特工业(MAGNI,7087)
订单前景佳

这家以生产和销售成衣为主的公司,焦点在出口市场。

美特工业的主要客户Nike的展望亮眼,有助增加订单。

此外,该公司市值比最接近同行宝翔(PRLEXUS,8966,主板消费产品股)高出2.5倍。

这家有良好纪录和稳健资产负债表的公司,或会受惠于跨太平洋伙伴协定(TPPA)。独家报道:姚思敏

Vivocom unit bags RM230mil project

KUALA LUMPUR: Vivocom International Holdings Bhd’s subsidiary, Vivocom Enterprise Sdn Bhd (VE), has signed a head of agreement (HOA) with Coneff Corporation Sdn Bhd (Coneff) for a RM230mil construction project.

In a statement Vivocom said VE would be the main contractor for the phase 5 of the Desa Tasek development, comprising 24-storey affordable houses, seven-storey podium car park and one-storey common facility.

“The project is an addition to the RM240mil contract of Phase 3B of D Idaman in Sungai Besi from Coneff that was announced last week.” — Bernama

“Subject to final negotiations on the HOA, the projects from Coneff would bring in RM470 million in total,” said the company, formerly known as Instacom Group Bhd.

Vivocom has secured projects amounting to RM1.17 billion including a RM726.8 million project from China Railway Construction Corporation Ltd Malaysia.

“These projects together with our current order book are expected to give us a strong earnings visibility until end of 2017 and beyond. We also have projects in the pipeline estimated at RM2.3 billion,” it added.— Bernama

Tuesday, January 26, 2016

MPHBCAPITAL: 1) ITS PEOPLE 2) ITS PURPOSE 3) ITS PROPERTIES

MPHBCAPITAL : ITS PERSONALITIES

1) Dato Surin Upatkoon (Listed by Forbes as No.12 Richest Man in Malaysia with Rm5.59 BILLIONS)

Dato Surin is the Top Substantial Owner in MPHBCAPITAL

2) Dr Yahya - A Heart Surgeon

3) Ng Kok Cheang. A Property Valuer. He has vast experience in property valuation.

4) Dato Lim Tiong Chin. Former Managing Director of AA Anthony (Now UOB Kayhian). from 2001 to 2013 - 12 years experience

5) Kuah Hun Liang. Chairman of MphbCapital

All these 5 Directors and other Principal Officers of MphbCapital are Buying & Buying MphbCapital Shares from the Open Market

Warren Buffet likes Insiders & Directors Buying Company Shares With Their Own Monies.

Now Let's Investigate Their Substantial Purchases of Company Shares

On 26/06/13 Director Ng Kok Cheang was alotted 263,900 Mphbcap shares at par value of Rm1.00 (Pre IPO) On the day of trading MphbCap closed at Rm1.45. Knowing the deep value of MphbCap land value he did not dispose any. Instead on 22/12/2014 he bought another 100,000 shares from the open market. On December 22nd, 2014 Bursa Filing revealed that he bought 100,000 shares of MphbCap for a total of Rm211,900 or Rm2,119 a share.



Director Kuah Hun Liang was alotted 73,400 shares at Pre IPO.

On 27/8 & 28/8/2013 he bought 200,000 shares from open market between rm1.35 to rm1.43 & between rm1.30 to rm1.36.

2 months later he took some profit when he disposed 132.300 shares at Rm1.61 a share. He is still keeping his original 73,400 shares plus his purchase of 167,700 shares from the open market.



Director Dato Dr Yahya bought 20,000 shares from open market on 11/3/2014. The price traded on that day ranged Rm1.84 to Rm1.87

Dato Yahya again increased his position by adding another 30,000 shares on 14/10/2014 (Between Rm2.10 to Rm2.22)



Dato Lim Tiong Chin bought from Off Maket on 13/4/2014 a total of 4,650,000 shares. The traded price on that day was Rm1.88 to Rm1.90

Again on 6/10/2015 when market crashed he added another 130,000 shares at Rm1.44 for a total of Rm187,200

Let's now take a careful look at Dato Surin's purchases

On 18 April, 2014 Dato Surin purchased from the open Market 2,408,300 MphbCap shares. The total traded volume on that day was 2,909,400 shares. Prices ranged from Rm1.96 to Rm1.99. Closing price on that day was Rm1.97

On 26 May, 2014 he bought 1,027,700 shares again from the open market. Trading for that day was 1,811,300 shares with price raning from Rm1.94 to Rm2.00. It closed at Rm1.99

Now I have discovered something interesting for 27th August, 2014

On this day Bursa Filing showed that MWE, being a Substantial Shareholder of MphbCapital, disposed 4 million MphbCapital Shares. It was a direct off market deal "via direct business transaction". The transacted price was Rm2.38 per share. A check with that day trading was only 806,000 shares. Traded price was Rm2.57 to Rm2.65

So at Rm2.38 it was about 9% to 10% discout off market.

Who was the buyer? It was not clear.

However, on 3 April 2015 Surin was mentioned to have owned a total of 230,883,993 MphbCapital shares. Did Surin buy those 4 million shares off market at Rm2.38 a share?

Was Rm2.38 too expensive? Or is it still very cheap to insider's knowledge?

Now let's see further

On 8 October, 2014 Principal Officer Ms Kheoh Ang Yeng bought from open market 100,000 MphbCapital shares at Rm223,500 or Rm2,235 a share. This is not far from MWE's disposal price of Rm2,380.

As MphbCap prices surged or dropped all these Directors are holding their shares tightly while New Director emerged to buy

On 19th October, 2015 Datuk Francis Tan (director) bought 10,000 shares from open market at Rm1.53

He bought again on 23 November, 2015 for 20,000 shares at Rm1.59

Why are so many Insiders Buying?

Is there Value They SEE which we do not?

Let's examine one Asset Disposal to SEE MphbCap Land Values

SALE OF MPHBCAPITAL 7 PARCEL LANDS In PENANG ISLAND

On 21 August 2013 about 7 parcel of lands or about 207 acres were Sold for Rm226.057 millions or about Rm25 psf.

A check revealed that the said land was purchased in year 2007 for only Rm30.195 millions.

So The Sale Garnered a Whopping profit of Rm195.862 MILLIONS.

That's 648% for 6 years = More than 100% PROFIT PER YEAR FOR EACH OF THE 6TH YEAR.

Albert Einstein said compounding interest is the "8th Wonder of the World".

All MPHBCAPITAL LANDS HAVE IMMENSE VALUE.

That was the reason why Surin wanted to privatise MWE for its Shares in MphbCapital?

As Directors & Insiders KnowThe Deep Value of MphbCapital There are Buying & Buying Like No Tomorrow!

See

Kimhin Directors were buying and buying and buying Kimhin when it was Rm1.30. Kimhin later surged past Rm2.00

TN Logis Directors were buying and buying and buying Tn Logis shares when it was traded at Rm1.50. Tn Logis later powered up to Rm7.00 and split. (Up 400%)

Will MphbCapital also power up like Tn Logis & Kimhim?



2) ITS PURPOSES ARE MULTI INDEED.

INSURANCE IN MPI, CREDIT FACILITY, PROPERTY INVESTMENTS, OIL PALM CULTIVATION, RAISING CASH, PARING DOWN DEBTS, OPERATING HOTELS, BUILDING TOWNSHIPS THROUGH JOINT VENTURES & OTHER MULTIPLIED INVESTMENTS.

ALL CONDENSED INTO ONE ULTIMATE OVERALL MIGHTY PURPOSE = TO ADD VALUE TO SHAREHOLDERS!

AS YOU CAN SEE HOW FRUGAL THE YEARLY PAYMENTS FOR 6 DIRECTORS ARE ONLY A COMBINED FEE OF RM240,000 OR RM40,000 ANNUAL FEE PER DIRECTOR.

RM40,000 Is Only Rm3,333 PER MONTH.

MPHBCAP HAS SHAREHOLDERS' CONCERN AT HEART = ADDING VALUE TO SHAREHOLDERS! IN OTHER WORDSTHOSE WHO HOLD MPHBCAP SHARES WILL BENEFIT!!



SO ALL DIRECTORS AND INSIDERS ARE HOLDING MORE AND MORE SHARES!

WHAT NOBLE INTENTION!! WHAT RARE AND HONEST CORPORATE GOVERNANCE!!



CHEERS TO DIRECTORS!!! STANDING OVATION!!! RESOUNDING APPLAUSE!!!



3) ITS ASSETS AND PROPERTIES

INSURANCE COMPANY BUSINESS

CREDIT LEASING BUSINESS

2 FLAMINGO HOTELS IN KL AND PENANG

INVESTMENT IN PROPERTIES

CASH EQUALENT TO RM1.00 PER SHARE

AND PROPERTIES IN VERY PRIME HOT SPOTS:

HOW DO WE LIKEN THEM?

PENGERANG'S RAPID 1,800 ACRES AS GOLD

GOMBAK & RAWANG LANDS AS SILVER

GOLDEN TRIANGLE IMBI LANDS AS DIAMONDS

PENANG LANDS AS PEARL

ALL ARE VALUED AT OLD BOOK VALUE

TAKE FLAMIGO HOTEL IN AMPANG FOR EXAMPLE

12 ACRES OF PRIME LANDS VALUED AT ONLY RM61 PSF.

IN AMPANG ONLY 5 to 10 MINUTES AWAY LAND COST IS RM3,000 PSF

IF WE TAKE ONLY 10% FLAMIGO HOTEL LANDS SHOULD BE REVALUED AT RM300 PSF OR A POSSIBLE GAIN OF 500%

PENGERANG'S RAPID 1,800 ACRES LAND HAS A BOOK VALUE OF ONLY 82 CENTS PSF. IN SUNGEI RINGGIT LAND HAS APPRECIATED TO BETWEEN RM100 To RM200 PSF FOR THOSE NEARER TOWN.



AS MPHBCAP'S LANDS ARE JUST BESIDE RAPID IT COULD BE CONVERTED TO A MIXTURE OF INDUSTRIAL, COMMERCIAL & RESIDENTIAL LANDS. AS SUCH ITS LANDS SHOULD BE AT LEAST RM50 to RM80 PSF

SO IF REVALUED IT SHOULD UP 10.000%

PETRON大馬為何猛漲?

2016-01-24 19:21

讀者譚小倩問:

PETRON大馬(PETRONM,3042,主板工業產品組)最新業績表現如何?是否為股價最近猛漲的原因?前景及合理價應是多少?

答:截至2015年9月31日為止第三季,PETRON大馬取得淨利7千415萬9千令吉,(每股淨利27.47仙),前期則是淨虧損866萬4千令吉(每股淨虧3.21仙),營業額為21億6千129萬8千令吉,前期為26億2千115萬3千令吉。

這使該公司首9個月的淨利達2億零435萬6千令吉(每股淨利75.69仙),前期淨虧損為1千689萬5千令吉(每股淨虧6.26仙)。首9個月的營業額為62億6千690萬1千令吉,前期為86億1千163萬令吉。

該公司業績表現強力回彈並轉虧為盈,縱然不是全部原因,相信也是股價最近猛彈的主因之一。

業務前景方面,該公司在宣佈業績時表示,已經完成服務油站的重建品牌的計劃,將繼續擴展零售網絡、增加商業領域的需求,使整體品牌推動信心活動已浮現成果,這可從其較為強勁的銷售活動顯現出來。

當時,該公司指出,將採取策略措施以推動可持續成長,並繼續投資在策略計劃以進一步加強它的後勤物流能力及市場範圍。

該公司表示,為了支持業務成長,顯著投資在其後勤物流及分銷設施。該公司已經在其波德申提煉廠完成建立額外的儲油槽(每日8萬8千桶)以減少船運的轉運時間,及改善運載效率等。

最近該公司完成由波德申提煉廠,通往巴生河流域分銷終站的一項多元產品管道的銜接工程,以加強其供應燃油至此高成長地區的能力。

根據手中資料顯示,在過去至少6個月,沒有本地證券研究對其基本面作出剖析及建議合理價。(星洲日報/投資致富‧投資問診‧文:李文龍)

CAB和三林因素

2016-01-24 19:57

CAB機構(CAB,7174,主板消費品組)以每股2令吉零7仙或3千118萬令吉,配售9.1%或1千506萬股予印尼富豪林逢生三林集團旗下之Plant Wealth控股有限公司。

CAB所獲的其中1千萬令吉,用作償還銀行貸款;2千零78萬令吉作為營運資金,另40萬令吉作為配股開銷。

該公司12月初已和三林旗下新加坡投資控股公司簽署聯營備忘錄,以在印尼合營清真認證綜合家禽業務。以印尼龐大的穆斯林人口,對肉雞有穩定的需求,相信透過三林在印尼的有利平台,可促進成長和締造雙贏。

去年6月,印尼富商林紹良之子林逢生家族控制的香港上市公司第一太平(FIRST PACIFIC),擬以每股2令吉70仙全購控制的可口食品(COCOLND,7205,主板消費品組),惟基於一些原因,最後並未落實。

CAB目前在半島有10座種雞場,140座肉雞場;目前每月生產420萬隻鶵種雞,高於2015年的350萬隻的20%。新收購的柔佛農場,吸納了上述鶵種雞。

儘管CAB有5大業務,包括綜合家禽與加工、貿易和加值產品製造、超級市場、快餐、海產加工活動;然而,家禽仍然為主要業務,佔營業額75%,淨利方面卻佔九成。

目前仍不知CAB與三林的合作詳情,惟CAB以其擅長的家禽業切入,繼續擴大此業務發展,合情合理。

2014年10月,CAB以1千92萬令吉收購新加坡家禽屠宰公司同發的51%股權,屠宰公司在新加坡市佔達15%。該年截至11月30日首8月,同發即貢獻98萬9千令吉新元之盈利,折合為297萬令吉;2015財政年貢獻更為顯著。

CAB還有未釋放的價值,在檳城峇都加灣、大山腳、雪州和霹靂擁有227英畝土地,其中59%為空地、41%是種植地。2014年再在吉打購28和柔佛買168英畝地,總地庫達423英畝地。

這項跨國合作的具體詳情相信還在磋商,合作的“千里之行,始於跬步”;未來的合作空間,也可以無限寬廣。(星洲日報/投資致富‧投資茶室‧文:張啟華)

Kerjaya Prospek Group Bhd - Strength in Numbers

New plans. Recall from our last report dated 30 April 2015, KERJAYA (formerly known as FUTUTEC) had entered into a HoA with their own major shareholders namely Datuk Tee Eng Ho, Datin Toh Siew Chuon and Mr. Tee Eng Seng to inject construction companies namely Kerjaya Prospek (M) S/B (KP) and Permatang Bakti S/B (PB) into KERJAYA. Since then, changes have been made to the deal and they will now be injecting both companies for a total indicative price tag of RM458.0m which will be financed by: (i) issuance of 37.0m new shares at RM1.16, (ii) issuance of 310.0m new Redeemable Convertible Preference Shares (RCPS) at an issue price of RM1.16, and (iii) a cash consideration of RM55.2m. The target companies will bring in a total orderbook of RM2.3b (outstanding: RM1.6b) which provides visibility till 2018, compared to the current KERJAYA’s orderbook of only RM97.1m.

New placement of 100.0m shares. KERJAYA has proposed an issuance of up to 100.0m new KERJAYA shares to: (i) fund the RM55.2m cash portion of the acquisition, (ii) meet the Group’s working capital requirements arising from the increase of order book, and (iii) increase the amount of KERJAYA shares held by public shareholders to comply with the public spread requirement post the acquisition of the targeted companies. The public shareholding is expected to decrease from 28% to 20% after the said corporate exercises, below the public spread requirement of 25%. Egovision being the majority shareholder is expected to place out shares to meet this requirement. (Refer overleaf)

The new mid-cap contractor in town. As an enlarged entity with a net cash position of RM126.5m (assuming issue price of RM1.50 for private placement), we believe the group will participate in bigger jobs of RM500.0m-RM1.0b contract size in the high-rise building segment. In fact, we understand that currently KERJAYA and the target companies have a total tender book of RM1.2b and management is targeting to secure RM600.0m jobs this year. KERJAYA’s major client list consists of top developers in town such as ECO WORLD, SP SETIA and E&O.

On-going developments. KERJAYA launched their first maiden project – Vista Residences @ Genting Highlands in July 2015. KERJAYA has about 10.1 acres landbank in Klang Valley (Genting Highlands and Shah Alam) with total potential GDV of RM500.0m (refer overleaf).

Above industry average margins. Over the past three years, KERJAYA has managed to fetch an average net margin of 22.0%, mainly due to their specialization in construction fittings, which fetched higher margins. However, post asset injection, we are projecting for its net margin to come down to c.10% as they take on more civil works for building projects. Nonetheless, our projected net margin of c.10% is still higher than the average building contractors’ margins of 6-8%. We believe the group could achieve above-average margins largely due to the group’s ability to execute end-to-end construction solutions on their own with minimum outsourcing.

Profit guarantee of RM150.0m for 3 years. Interestingly, the injection comes with a cumulative profit guarantee of RM150.0m over the next three years (FY16-18), which implies an annualized RM50.0m p.a. However, we are projecting its FY16-17E net profit to be RM91.3-100.9m underpinned by the existing orderbook of c.RM1.7b from both Kerjaya Prospect Sdn Bhd (RM1.6b) and KERJAYA (RM97.1m), coupled with our orderbook replenishment assumptions of RM500.0m per annum.

NOT RATED. Since our last report (Not rated; TP: RM1.78) KERJAYA hit our previous TP temporarily before going into a downtrend to a low of RM1.17. Share price started to pick up again since August 2015 likely due to the newly amended HoA. By ascribing a Fwd PER of 10.0x-13.0x to FD EPS FY16E of 16.9 sen, we value KERJAYA at RM1.69-RM2.20 on a fully diluted basis*. Our valuations are inline with our targeted Fwd PER range for small-mid cap construction players at 9.0x-13.0x and we believe our ascription of 10.0x-13.0x for KERJAYA is fair due to their above industry average margins and their strong financial position. · However, we note that KERJAYA might encounter some replenishment risk when building construction jobs slowdown in the upcoming years due to the slowdown in property launches by developers. We also remain cautious on the sustainability of their higher-than average construction margins. While the higher end of our valuation offers compelling upsides, we note that there could be share overhang arising from the conversion of RCPS, which is currently in-the-money.

Source: Kenanga Research - 26 Jan 2016