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Wednesday, April 30, 2014

脊椎側彎痛一生!書包太重傷害大

Source: http://news.sinchew.com.my/node/347140?tid=67#.U2B8-Y46-Nc.facebook

專家指出,如果書包的重量佔了一個孩童體重的20%以上,極可能對孩童的脊椎發育造成重大傷害,導致脊椎側彎,形成長久的傷痛,終生折騰。
  • 椎間盤破裂和移位患者有年輕化的跡象,以往這種疾病多數是30歲以上的患者,但現在十幾、二十歲年輕人患上椎間盤破裂、移位的個案有所增加。
擁有10年脊椎外科專科經驗的蘇霖銘醫生指出,雖然還沒有醫學報告證實書包過重會導致脊椎傷害,但是根據他本身所遇到的個案而言,若書包重量佔了體重的20%以上,脊椎側彎的可能性也大大提高。
根據本報記者抽樣檢查8至12歲學生的書包,發現平均每位學生的書包重量佔了身體重量的30%或更多。
椎間盤破裂移位案增
蘇霖銘接受本報訪問時提醒,椎間盤破裂和移位患者有年輕化的跡象,以往這種疾病多數是30歲以上的患者,但現在十幾、二十歲年輕人患上椎間盤破裂、移位的個案有所增加。
他指出,椎中盤受損、破裂的情況除了會導致椎間盤移位,還會進一步因壓迫坐骨神經,而導致疼痛。
人體在承受自身體重10%以上的重量時,會開始感到不適、背部肌肉疼痛,但卻不至於造成傷害。因此,他建議學生的書包重量,最好不要佔體重的20%。
超重2大原因
不整理書包、書本太多
據本報記者抽樣調查,學生書包超重可歸為2大原因,一是學生不整理書包,二則是書本簿子太多。無論如何如何,天天依據課程表收拾書包的學生,其書包重量也佔體重28%,而沒有收拾書包的學生,其書包重量則介於體重的30至45%。
因此若根據蘇霖銘的建議,以學生體重的20%以下為健康標準的話,幾乎所有學生的書包重量已經遠遠超過他們可承擔的重量。
學生書包內除了有課本、作業和簿子,還有便當盒、雨傘、外套、水瓶、文具等。根據學校的上課時間表,學生平均一天上有6個科目,驚人的是他們所帶的簿子最高達到40本!
無論如何,這些受訪的學生都是使用拉杆書包,舊式的是單輪拉杆書包,新式的三輪拉杆書包,則附有上下樓梯的功能。每位學生除了書包之外,還手提一個環保袋,或是背另一個書包。
醫生:小朋友負荷不了
超過體重20%不健康
蘇霖銘醫生,對書包重量平均佔了孩子體重的30%,甚至直逼50%的情況感到驚訝和擔心。
他說,這已經超過他們可以負荷的重量了。
“作為醫生,我覺得超過體重20%以上的書包重量是不健康的,礙於目前還沒有有權威的醫學報告證明書包重量對小朋友的傷害,所以無法提出警告,但是這的確是令人擔心的現象,我建議校方應該對此有所警惕,並作出改善。”
定時為孩子身形拍照做記錄
同樣身為父母的蘇霖銘建議學生家長,除了每天確保孩子整理書包,只帶需要的書本到學校之外,也可以定時為發育中孩子的身形拍照做記錄,觀察孩子的身體發展是否正常,特別是肩膀的平衡,因為脊椎側彎的問題大多數能從肩膀的平衡看得出來,一旦發現異樣就應該及早就醫,以物理治療的方式糾正過來,以免傷害擴大。
他也建議,擔心孩子背部負荷量太重的家長也可以為孩子多預備一個手提袋,將重量分散,以減輕書包重量對脊椎造成的壓力。
王仕發:確保學生每天整理書包
學校設壁櫥、收納書本
全國校長職工會總秘書王仕發校長坦言,學生書包太重確實是個問題,而且多年來都在與校方討論解決方案。
他透露,一些學校在校設置壁櫥,供學生收納書本。他鼓勵其他條件允許的學校也效仿這種做法。
王仕發認為,家長必須確保學生每天都整理書包,避免孩子將雜誌、校刊、漫畫等非必要的書本帶到學校去。
他強調,老師不可以突發性地調換上課科目。突然改上不在當天課程表內的科目,會導致學生對當天上課科目產生不確定性,進而索性不收拾書包,將所有科目的書本都帶齊。
他說,一般上每天10堂課,只有6個科目,如果避免了帶非必要的書本到校,書包的重量應該就不會太重。
另外,王仕發也提出“E-book”已經是個趨勢,而且同時也能解決書包重量的問題。
麥偉堅:曾為學生秤書包
最高紀錄15公斤
安親班負責人麥偉堅,開辦豆芽苑學習中心有13年的經驗,一直以來他都非關注學生書包重量的問題,也不斷向校方反映,但是他認為同樣的問題至今都還沒有獲得改善。
也是育才華小家教協會理事的麥偉堅透露,之前家教協會也曾經為瞭解學生的書包重量而秤書包,當時的最高紀錄是15公斤。
豆芽苑學習中心與育才華小毗鄰,中間只隔著一個公園,有60多名小學生每天放學後到該中心休息、上課。
每天放學的高峰期,麥偉堅都用小型客貨車將孩子們的書包載到學習中心。
“雖然孩子們都說不覺得書包重,但是我發現很多學生都有駝背的問題,我若看見,就會提醒他們挺直腰。”
他也指出,雖然現在的小學生多用拉杆式的書包減輕負擔,但拉著沉重的書包下樓梯時,速度太快或重量太重,其衝力都有可能導致孩子滾下樓梯。
本身脊椎側彎50度
王妙麗不希望學生步後塵
王妙麗是豆芽苑學習中心的其中一名教師,對於學生的書包重量她比其他教師多了一份關注,因為她本身就是脊椎側彎症的患者,脊椎的彎度約有50度。
她說:“直到如今,媽媽還是會看著我說`早知道會弄傷你的脊椎,當初無論我多忙,都會載你去上學。’每次聽到這句話,我都會難過地掉淚。”
“現在我成為一名教師,看到學生的大書包我無法不為他們擔心,我都會儘量幫他們提書包,因為我不希望現在的疏忽造成對他們一輩子的傷害。”
(星洲日報/獨家報導:吳嘉雯、張德蘭)

Tuesday, April 29, 2014

klia2零售比例冠全球 大马机场WCT收入看涨

Source: http://www.nanyang.com/node/617389?tid=462

(吉隆坡28日讯)第二吉隆坡国际机场(klia2)零售空间面积比例为全球最高,激励大马机场(AIRPORT,5014,主板贸服股)和WCT控股(WCT,9679,主板建筑股)的收入展望。
klia2即将在本周五启用,实现了“商城中的机场”概念;零售店面向来被视为机场的“附属品”,被当做机场的主轴还是首见。
大马机场高度重视零售层面,Gateway@klia广场和限制区的总零售面积,达6万7516平方米,几乎是新加坡樟宜机场三个终站的零售面积总和。
樟宜机场的零售面积占总机场面积的6.7%,本为全球最高,但此桂冠即将落在klia2上。
Gateway的出租率达80%,半数店面将在5月2日与klia2一同投入运作,其他则在一周后开张。
马银行投资研究分析员参与机场开放日后指出,机场内有约209家中至高级零售店面,相信klia2未来将在这方面赢得多个奖项。
料赢多项大奖
Gateway的存在并不仅为了搭客,而是希望成为雪邦、布特拉再也和汝莱的新购物天地,销售产品应有尽有,包括餐饮、服装、饰品、鞋子、书籍、美容与健康产品等。
除了数家餐饮、零售商店和银行,大部分店面皆营运24小时。
“klia2令人印象深刻,虽已不属于廉航终站的规格,但无疑能强化我国航空基建,足以与区域其他对手竞争,亦有利于大马机场和WCT控股。”
机场的停车场和公共交通设施亦相当完善,8层楼的停车场含5600个停车位,未来将增建拥有400个停车位的户外停车场。
WCT控股持Gateway70% 每年可进账1500万
WCT控股拥有Gateway的70%股权和25年特许经营权,是该集团第三项产业投资项目。
根据每平方尺平均20至22令吉的租金计算,联昌国际投资研究分析员叶国豪预计,此商城将每年贡献1000万至1500万令吉净利,但首3年将因折旧而录营运亏损。
“不过,klia2数度延期开张,如今不太可能再激励股价扬升,未来的催化剂还是仰赖新合约。”
大马机场商场和税收激励
叶国豪指出,更多的零售机会和机场税,会是大马机场的主要催化剂。
早前副交通部长指出,klia2的首年机场税将获优惠,与廉航终站一样为32令吉,一年后再评估。目前吉隆坡国际机场(KLIA)的机场税是65令吉。
根据计算,若大马机场向klia2征收与KLIA一致的机场税,2016财年盈利将可提高49%,目标价也可从9.35令吉涨至14.45令吉。
同时,随着klia2将如期开张,马银行投资研究调高2014财年收益1.2%。
“一些工程还未结束,但这并不影响5月2日的开张日。整体而言,klia2非常雄伟。”
加速Aeropolis发展
Gateway的成功,也将鼓吹吉隆坡国际机场Aeropolis发展大蓝图(KLIA Aeropolis)计划。
安联投资研究指出,klia2是此蓝图的首个商业工程,若反应热烈,将可吸引国际发展商和投资者前来。
KLIA Aeropolis预计,在2020年前发展3000亩的商业计划。
这计划涵盖商务区、独立商业区、主题公园、酒店、会议室、展览厅、自然保育区、绿色旅游区等,预期在未来5至10年竣工。

Charting: How a novice can use chart - Koon Yew Yin

Source: http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/51088.jsp

Koon yew Yin

Introduction

First I must tell you that I am not a professional Chartist and I only use the chart to help me make decision to buy, hold or sell.

The two methods commonly used to analyze securities and make investment decisions are fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Fundamental analysis involves analyzing the characteristics of a company in order to estimate its value. Technical analysis takes a completely different approach; it doesn't care one bit about the "value" of a company. Chartists are only interested in the price movements in the market.

Despite all the fancy and exotic tools it employs, technical analysis really just studies supply and demand in a market in an attempt to determine what direction, or trend, will continue in the future. In other words, technical analysis attempts to understand the emotions in the market by studying the market itself, as opposed to its components. If you understand the benefits and limitations of technical analysis, it can give you a new set of tools or skills that will enable you to be a better trader or investor.

You can use technical analysis to:

1. Identify profitable stock patterns

2. Minimize your risk

3. Maximize your return in up and down markets

You’ll learn how to make big money on stocks using a technical analysis toolkit that has been wielded successfully for hundreds of years. That’s no exaggeration.

That makes these patterns some of the most time-tested strategies in finance. You can feel secure that you are trusting your investments to a highly refined system – not a new craze or an analyst’s hunch.

There are hundreds of patterns in stock charts that traders can look for, but I will only tell what is most trusted and reliable.

The Symmetrical Triangle: A Reliable Workhorse

You’ll recognize the symmetrical triangle pattern when you see a stock’s price vacillating up and down and converging towards a single point. Its back and forth oscillations will become smaller and smaller until the stock reaches a critical price, breaks out of the pattern, and moves drastically up or down.

The symmetrical triangle pattern is formed when investors are unsure of a stock’s value. Once the pattern is broken, investors jump on the bandwagon, shooting the stock price north or south.

Symmetrical Triangle Pattern

To form your symmetrical triangle pattern, draw two converging trendlines that bound the high and low prices. Your trendlines should form (you guessed it) a symmetrical triangle, lying on its side.







How to Profit from Symmetrical Triangles

Symmetrical triangles are very reliable. You can profit from upwards or downwards breakouts. You’ll learn more about how to earn from downtrends when we talk about maximizing profits.

If you see a symmetrical triangle forming, watch it closely. The sooner you catch the breakout, the more money you stand to make.

Watch For:

Sideways movement, a period of rest, before the breakout.

Price of the asset traveling between two converging trendlines.

Breakout ¾ of the way to the apex.

Set Your Target Price:

As with all patterns, knowing when to get out is as important as knowing when to get in. Your target price is the safest time to sell, even if it looks like the trend may be continuing.

For symmetrical triangles, sell your stock at a target price of:

Entry price plus the pattern’s height for an upward breakout.

Entry price minus the pattern’s height for a downward breakout.

Note: As this article is getting too long, I will post another article on how I use chart later.

Four stocks hit limit down, Bursa queries

Source: http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2014/04/29/Four-stocks-hit-limit-down/

PETALING JAYA: Four small capitalised stocks hit limit-down yesterday, drawing the scrutiny of Bursa Malaysia.
The four stocks went down almost simultaneously in the afternoon session, triggering speculation that the heavy sell-off was no coincidence.
As at press time, Visdynamics Holdings Bhd told the exchange that it was unaware of any development that could be the cause for its share price to hit limit-down.
The company was queried by the exchange over the unusual market activity (UMA) after the stock lost more than a third of its value to close 30 sen down at 47 sen yesterday.
The biggest percentage loser yesterday was MNC Wireless Bhd whose share price plunged 23 sen, or 60% to close at 15 sen. The stock saw 20.6 million shares changing hands.
The company has yet to respond to Bursa’s UMA query as at Press time.
Dealers contacted by StarBiz yesterday said the unexplained heavy losses by these counters may rattle nervy investors and spark a broader sell-off in the market.
“We are also assessing the trades in these counters including engaging with the brokers as to the reasons for such selling,’’ Bursa Malaysia said in an emailed response to a StarBiz query yesterday.
“We will continue to vigilantly monitor the trading and take any other relevant action to ensure preservation of market integrity,” it said.
Another stock that was hit hard yesterday was Solution Engineering Holdings Bhd, which went down 14 sen, or 53%, to 12 sen.
Solution Engineering is 10.8% owned by Industronics Bhd, which saw its share price come down by a hefty 30 sen, or 44% yesterday to close at 38.5 sen.
Except for Industronics’ stake in Solution Engineering, there was no other obvious common link between the four companies.
The four have a combined market value of just about RM120mil, the biggest of which is Visdynamics with a market capitalisation of RM47mil.
The steep decline in the shares of these companies took some shine off the fast-rising small cap stocks.
The FTSE Bursa Malaysia Small Cap Index had risen 12.3% year-to-date at 17,631 points yesterday, off its all-time high of 17,867 points reached last Tuesday.
In comparison, the benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia KL Composite Index was down 0.6% since the start of January at 1,855 points.
While there is growing worries that prices of smaller stocks may have run ahead of its fundamentals, some analayts believe that there is plenty of room for upside for the sector.
“The market may be taking a breather, but the lung is not collapsing,” MIDF Researchsaid. It said despite the recent run-up, index’s technical reading remained “comfortably” in its “bullish formation” at above its 50-day moving average.
“With the volatile May beckoning, we believe exciting times are in store for the lower liners,’’ it added.
Investors were seen chasing up smaller stocks in recent months after a five-year bull run in the market lifted valuation of bigger stocks to a premium compared to their historical average.

WEE HUR HOLDINGS: We Can Buy? Can We?

Source: http://www.nextinsight.net/index.php/story-archive-mainmenu-60/924-2014/8426-wee-hur-we-can-buy-can-we

The following article was published yesterday on Valuestocks.org and is reproduced with permission


Views & Question from reader: 
 
"Based on FY13 profit of $20 million, and FY12 profit of $93 million for Wee Hur, and assuming profit for FY14 would at least match that of FY12 due to the attainment of a Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP) of Premier @ Kaki Bukit, its profit will go up by approx 362%!! 
It is highly likely the stock will move higher, mirroring the action in 2012 when the stock price surged from $0.28 to $0.61 when Harvest @ Woodlands achieved TOP in 2012.
 
The profit for FY14 could exceed $93 million as Premier @ Kaki Bukit is a larger development then Harvest @ Woodlands although Wee Hur only owns a 60% stake.
Based on FY13 press release, Wee Hur had $242 million in cash and cash equivalents, while its market capitalization is currently $331 million. The company is cash rich and it is likely to able to sustain its dividend payout of $0.02 a year (dividend for FY13). Given that its share price is $0.36 (as at 17/4/14). its dividend yield is a respectable 5.56%.
However I am unable to find any research report on this stock, so I wonder if you and your team would be interested to look at Wee Hur's balance sheet so that we can learn more about it for the benefits of fellow investors.
 


I am back! Guest Blogger TCK here. I am honoured to guest-blog on Henry’s revamped website and on my pet topic - property stocks.

In essence, the reader is asking would the full recognition of profits of Premier@Kaki Bukit have a similar impact on the share price as the recognition of full profits from Harvest@Woodlands in 2013.

chart4.14Wee Hur (36.5 cents) has a market cap of S$336 million and a trailing PE of 15.8X. 
Chart: Bloomberg
 

To provide some background on accounting standards, the profits derived from the sale of industrial property is recognised upon the completion of the project. For residential property, the revenue and profits from sales are recognised progressively based on the stage of completion of the project.

From an income statement perspective, this results in lumpy profits, which explains the huge decrease in Wee Hur's profit (from $93 million in FY 2012 to $20 million in FY 2013) due to the absence of profit recognition from Harvest@Woodlands in 2013.

Will Premier@Kaki Bukit then provide a spike in the share price of Wee Hur?

Taking a step back, I was a bit perplexed over why, upon “realising” there are profits recognised on Wee Hur for Harvest@Woodlands, Mr. Market pushed Wee Hur to a 52 week low of 32 cents from a high of 61 cents?

One would expect the share price to normalise upon digesting such positive public information. 
As I digged further, I think I found my answer in the conversion of 184,009,398 warrants to ordinary shares progressively during the financial year at an exercise price of $0.25  per share (Refer to pages 50 and 83 of Wee Hur’s 2013 annual report).

This had a significant dilutive impact on existing shareholders considering the share price rose to as high as 61 cents. 
Do note the saving grace is that the number of warrants outstanding as at 31 December 2013 is significantly lower at 9,829,161. Hence, any price adjustment due to warrants conversion will be limited in the current year.

So the next question is, has Mr. Market over-reacted to the warrant conversion? Wee Hur might be forming a base since the downtrend is broken.

Let us find out more by analyzing the balance sheet.

Price-to-Book Value not compelling
From a valuation standpoint, I was surprised that Wee Hur is trading above book value (approximately 24 cents book value against 36 cents market value) given that the majority of the property counters are now trading way below book value.

Possible reasons:
1) There is limited risk on the balance sheet with Wee Hur in a net cash position of $147 million (cash less financial liabilities). This will insulate Wee Hur from any rise in interest rates. 
On the flip side, this also reflects the lack of project pipeline beyond the existing projects.
 
2) The pipeline of projects for Wee Hur is almost 100% sold -- namely: Urban Residences, Parc Centros and Premier@Kaki Bukit.
 
My gut feel is that the premium of approximately $100 million to book reflects the profits expected to be recognised by Wee Hur for these projects.

Also, with all projects fully sold, Wee Hur is spared from the Qualifying Charges for having unsold inventories, which is one of the reasons why a number property counters are trading at a hefty discount from book value. 

This explains why Wee Hur trade at price to book of 1.5.

For more details of the profit to be recognised by Wee Hur, I have used the following information:

premierkakibukitPremier @ Kaki Bukit. Artist's impression: CompanyFirstly, the effective GFA for Premier@Kaki Bukit (60% of 74,943sqm = 44,966sqm) is actually lower than Harvest@Woodlands (62,531sqm). 

Taking profit after tax of $87 million from its property development business in 2012 (when Harvest@Woodlands was recognised) as a proxy and adjust for GFA of (44,966/62,531), I arrived at approximately $63 million as the profit to be booked for Premier@Kaki Buki in FY14. 

I also took profit after tax of $23 million of the property development business in 2013 as a proxy for Parc Centros and Urban Residence profit recognition in FY14 and beyond. Note Parc Centros is expected to be completed only in 2016.

Adding both would approximately give us $86 million of unrecognised profits. From the above guesstimate, it appears that the premium of $100 million above book cannot be fully justified by unrecognised profit. 

Hence, to answer the reader’s question, I would not think the recognition of profits from Premier@ Kaki Bukit will result in a spike in the share price of Wee Hur because the impact has already been priced in. 

The next catalyst of growth
350_3gohyeowlianGoh Yeow Lian, executive chairman of Wee Hur Holdings. NextInsight file photoI was pleasantly surprised to learn about Wee Hur’s next engine for growth. 

Unlike other similar property players (such as Chip Eng Seng and Hiap Hoe) whose next engine for growth largely hinges on expanding to other countries such as Australia and UK, Wee Hur seems to be betting heavily on the dormitory business in Singapore.

Wee Hur has a 60% stake in a joint venture at Tuas View Dormitory with 16,800 beds expected to be completed in 2H2014. 

It is bigger than any single dormitory operated by Centurion (the company with the most significant dormitory exposure listed on SGX). The total number of beds in Centurion's stable is 27,600 in Singapore.

Using a short cut valuation on Centurion's current market capitalisation of $560 million and applying an effective “bed adjusted valuation”, one would value this business of Wee Hur at approximately $200 million.

Awarded by the Jurong Town Corporation to build and operate in October 2013, the dormitory business will be up and running by 2H2014.

Following the train of thought that the premium over book will largely be compensated by unrecognised profits on existing projects over the next few years, buying at the current price actually gets you the dormitory business for free!

tuasviewdorm_vsundarTuas View Dormitory under construction. Photo by V Sundar

In a nutshell
From a value investing standpoint, Wee Hur's investing appeal is limited given the profit to be recognised has already been “priced in” and the company does not appear to be trading at a discount to its intrinsic value. 

However, given Wee Hur’s limited risk to any downside to the property market prices by virtue of its project being fully sold and it being in a net cash position, the Company has effectively transformed itself to the next “Centurion”.

With a strong construction order book resulting from major ongoing infrastructure projects, it might be a smart way to ride the construction boom for the company.

Disclosure: TCK & Henry Tiong are currently not vested in Wee Hur shares.

Monday, April 28, 2014

重新发展燕美路旁项目 传马化资本觅联营伙伴

Source: http://www.nanyang.com/node/616976?tid=462

(吉隆坡26日讯)消息称,马化资本(MPHBCAP,5237,主板金融股)寻觅联营伙伴,重新开发位于燕美路和苏丹依斯迈路搁置已久的发展项目。
《The Edge》财经周刊引述消息报道,若计划落实,将成为马化资本在中心商务区的旗舰发展计划,以取得持续和乐观的租金收入。
该发展项目位于燕美路和苏丹伊斯迈路之间的交界处,靠近敦拉萨国际贸易中心(TRX)。
消息披露,马化资本和大股东正为此再发展计划寻觅联营伙伴,估计会发展为零售和办公楼房产。
该区面积约达6英亩,新计划包括兴建天桥,横跨九个车道宽的马路,连接De Vegas俱乐部。
发展总值料35亿
假设马化资本成功取得10地积比率(Plot Ratio),加上70%的效率和每平方尺2000令吉的价位,该项目的发展总值(GDV)估计可达35亿令吉。
目前,该区未完成的建筑物共占整块地皮的1.4英亩。
消息披露,马化资本的发展项目将包括其余的2.8英亩。
根据该公司的招股书,在燕美路仍拥有10块距离相近的地皮,最大面积的有1.5英亩,目前用作停车场。
刘锦坤欲购De Vegas俱乐部
消息指,马化资本董事经理兼大股东丹斯里刘锦坤已签署协议,购下De Vegas俱乐部。
不过,根据报道,交易出现变卦,预示着再发展计划或会延迟。
De Vegas俱乐部占地1.65英亩,仅仅是地皮价值就达1亿8000万令吉。
早前已有两家公司尝试重新开发该项目,不过最终以失败收场。

潘力克:全球经济料维持正面 乌克兰局势左右股市

Source: http://www.nanyang.com/node/617206?tid=462

(吉隆坡27日讯)我国财经评论家潘力克说,随着美国、日本、澳洲及中国经济趋向稳定及带动全球贸易成长,预计今年全球包括我国经济维持正面,只是担心乌克兰暴力冲突会是左右经济及股市的一大隐忧。
他说,目前美国经济持续增长、欧洲及日本经济正在复苏、中国经济预计可维持7至7.5%。
考验世界领袖智慧
“乌克兰危机会让情况出现变数,如何化解,考验着世界领袖的智慧。”
潘力克在由雪隆海南会馆妇女团主办的“风起云涌———看马股”经济讲座会上,这么说。讲座主持人为该会馆妇女团经济组主任陈月娟,与会者包括雪隆海南会馆妇女团顾问陈孟龄及团长陈开蓉。
潘力克提到,乌克兰东部有大量原油及天然气,若该国危机导致全球油价上升10%,会直接影响把欧洲经济拉低0.1%,属最大隐忧。
他也分别点评美国、欧洲及中国经济局势,指美国经济在2012年已复苏,目前问题在于如何维持增长。
“美国企业开始负债,说明他们对前景乐观,愿意借钱扩展。该国失业率在73周内往下跌,今年若没有外围风险,美国经济可维持2至3%增长,这对海外带来正面影响,包括改善亚洲出口。”
欧洲经济从负转正
他说,欧洲经济去年第四季开始复苏,国内生产总值从负转正,这牵动力来自获得向美国大量出口机会的德国。
“欧洲经济脱离衰退局面,欧债虽然未能完全解决,但已非大问题。”至于中国经济发展,他认为不会回复双位数增长,也不太可能出现“硬着陆”,因为中国就业机会仍然多过寻职者。
若租借合约没阐明 租客可拒付消费税
潘力克提醒房东及物品供应商,若租借合约没有条款说明可因消费税调整收费,明年落实消费税制度后,顾客或租客有权不付消费税。
“若合约没讲明,可因政府税率改变而增加收费,到时租户可拒绝给钱,当事人要自行负担。”他促请涉及者尽快更改合约内容,但也要得到对方同意。
预计黄金价8月后上
潘力克预计黄金价格在8月后上升,目前到8月是最佳投资时机。
他说,8月后是印度的结婚季节,陆续有感恩节、圣诞节、农历新年等,这些节日都能带动金价。
“现在投资黄金,9月就会看见涨幅……预计金价在明年2月14日后就下跌,因为元宵及情人节都过了,人民买金的意愿也将减少。”
外资看准通胀注资股市
提到大马股市涨幅空间,潘力克指纵使国人不满通胀,但当外资看见通胀压力大,等同股市会起,基金经理都会抓紧这机会。
“通胀对基金经理而言,只是不能投资债券而已,因为债券抵御不了通胀,所以他们唯一去向就是股市……很多外资在大马或东南亚的投资,往往只占总投资额5至10%,所以敢于冒险。”
外资持有率达28%
他指今年3月外资稍微注入大马股市,其持有率达28%。他认为,全球股市仍有看头,虽然今年初可能有些钱流入了债券市场,但仍以投资先进国股市为止,目前投资额开始流入新兴国家股市。
提到大马经济,他认为最大问题在于通胀压力,这压力来自美国量化宽松政策退场及政府减少补贴。
“相关政策退场导致马币疲弱,马币对英镑贬值了20%、对欧元贬值15%,对美元则贬值5%。货币贬值拉高进口压力。”
至于政府削减补贴,他预计下个月天然气价格会提高,加上明年1月调涨电费,会导致通胀压力达3.5%。
MH370最终赔偿额决定马航身价
潘力克认为,马航危机不会影响本地股市,至于国人目前应否趁马航股票跌价之际“进场”,胥视马航就MH370班机事故的最终赔偿额及投资者的耐心。
他说,马航股价因相关事故一度跌至20仙,虽然看似便宜,但日后若赔偿额属大笔数,其身价可能呈负数。
“若马航破产,其股价会继续跌,它可能被暂时除牌、私营化、重新整理后再挂牌,现在进场者要耐心等它重新挂牌才见赚幅,这可能是好几年。”

Mobius: Malaysia can compete

Source: http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2014/04/26/Mobius-Malaysia-can-compete-Investment-guru-says-country-can-take-on-South-America-does-not-need-to/

Templeton Emerging Markets Group executive chairman Mark Mobius has no qualms about Malaysia overcoming competition from its South American emerging market rivals.
“If I were South American, I would be more concerned (about Malaysia),” he quips.
Mobius was responding to a question about Malaysia’s prospects under the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA), in an interview with StarBizWeek at the Franklin Templeton Investments Asia Investor Forum 2014 in Tokyo, Japan.
The 77-year-old emerging markets expert and advocate believed there was nothing for Malaysia to fear about joining the agreement, stating that the country has good fundamentals and was competitive in its own right.
“I’m surprised that Malaysia would be worried about competitiveness as Malaysia can easily compete with these countries,” he says, referring in particular to the manufacturing sector. “They would probably be complementary.”
Mobius says there are many trade ideas the emerging market countries under the TPPA could pursue, such as Malaysia supplying processed rubber.
“In fact, the whole of South-East Asia should join the TPPA as a block. Any trade between Asia and the Pacific would be very good; it makes a lot of sense because a lot of things are happening in the Pacific.”
The TPPA is a free trade agreement currently negotiated between 12 nations - Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, United States, Singapore, Vietnam and Japan.
Among the concerns raised about the TPPA have been market access, investor-state dispute settlement, labour, environment, tobacco, medicine, intellectual property rights, state-owned enterprise issues.
International Trade and Industry minister Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed has said last week that Malaysia will negotiate in the national interest even if US President Barack Obama does not receive wide-ranging powers known as a trade promotion authority to push for a trade pact from the US Congress.
Aside from the South American countries involved in the TPPA, Mobius adds that Panama and Colombo were thriving markets to note as well.
On Malaysia’s progress since Mobius began investing in the country in the 1980s, he says the market has “progressed very far and done a terrific job”.
“We have increased our investments in Malaysia and we have a number of funds we’re managing for investors in Malaysia itself.”
Mobius is happy with the way the market has developed here, opening the doors to pension funds to be invested in equities and providing opportunities for foreign fund managers to come in and work.
“Vis-a-vis Singapore, Malaysia’s weaker currency means it has good opportunities to attract foreign investments.
“That’s why Johor is on a swing.”
Mobius believes both Malaysia and Singapore are complementary economic partners.
“Singapore doesn’t have the land and the lower labour costs which they have found in Malaysia while Malaysia can get the high-tech resources from Singapore.”
Emerging from a slump
Mobius, who has been invested in the emerging markets for over 40 years, predicts the emerging markets would rebound from a sluggish performance last year. The avid bicyclist points out that these markets have already outperformed the developed markets so far this year.
“It is a sign that money is flowing this way - back into emerging markets.
“Bear markets don’t last. Historically, bull markets last longer than bear markets,” he says during his presentation on emerging markets.
2013 saw investors moving out of emerging markets to developed markets like the United States where the economy recuperated from the global financial crisis.
“We should see a reversal of that this year. Whether by the end of the year the trend would continue to be so, I don’t know but it looks that way,” he says.
Among the other major trend he sees in the emerging markets realm were the China and Hong Kong exchanges merging. While China is expected to undergo some challenging economic reforms that will see a lot of banks going under, people getting arrested, state-owned enterprises closing down as the government improves efficiency and resources allocation.
Other sweeping changes, he notes were deregularisation of industries reserved for the government allowing market access by private sector, as well as financial liberalisation which will see the private sector setting up financial institutions.
The property market in China will also be vibrant, as more citizens migrate from rural areas to the city.
“China is not slowing down. It is now at a single digit growth rate but in dollar value, this growth is bigger than the years before,” he says.
Mobius is bullish on the consumer services sector in emerging markets, as purchasing power rises in these countries. Gross domestic product per capita growth has reached 45% in emergign markets between 2008 and 2013, while developed markets only scored a 3% growth.
He is also keen on the financial and technology sectors, where people are increasing able to access these services and innovations.
“Government debt in these markets is quite low but consumer debt in some countries may increase due to the rapid rise in credit card and consumer financing. So rapid that it’s going to have problems along the way,” he says, noting that the non-performing loans on the consumer side may increase.
He is also confident of the growth of internet-based businesses in the region where the absence of legacy technology allows emerging markets to adopt the latest solutions than in developed markets.
“Internet shopping is coming into its own globally, I don’t see any let up there. And internet-shopping related businesses will grow”, he adds, referring to delivery and payment companies.
The Templeton Emerging Markets Group projects a 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) at 10.1 times for the emerging markets.
Developed markets’ 12-month forward P/E is 14.8 times.
The 2014 emerging markets gross domestic product growth is expected at a average of 5.1%, compared to 1.8% in developed markets.
That said, Mobius cautions investors to be selective still about their investments in these markets using a bottom-up approach.

Tambun Indah among top 30 small-cap jewels

Source: http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2014/04/28/Property-OG-in-RHB-list-Scientex-Tambun-Indah-make-return-to-Top-30-SmallCap-jewels/

   
PETALING JAYA: SBC Corp BhdInari Amertron BhdOCK Group BhdBerjaya Auto Bhd and Press Metal Bhd are among the top picks on RHB Research Institute’s round-up of Top 30 Small-Cap firms in Malaysia.
According to a document sighted by StarBiz, the list of firms include oil and gas players Barakah Offshore Petroleum BhdYinson Bhd and Perisai Petroleum Teknologi Bhd as well as a selection of property developers like SBC Corp, LBS Bina Group BhdTambun Indah Land Bhd.
Other picks are from a spread of sectors like pharmacy, manufacturing, construction, steelworks, insurance, port operations, telecommunications and education.
Making a comeback on the list are Tambun Indah and plastics packaging manufacturer Scientex Bhd.
A senior banking executive from RHB Investment Bank Bhd said the companies selected usually were based on the significant upside potential across various sectors and of different sizes.
“The team usually looks at companies with a lot of upside, between 20% and 40%, looking at their target price versus current price.”
When called to confirm, head of research Alexander Chia said while all companies selected had great potential for growth, the research team had its preferred sectors which made up the five top picks of the 30 companies.
“Our stock picks in this year’s ‘Top 30 Jewels’ are in line with our top-down view of the market.”
On the top five companies specifically, Chia said that aside from business fundamentals, it was the qualitative aspect of the management that shone through.
“The common theme that these companies share is a strong entrepreneurial drive displayed by their management teams in addition to a sound business model.”
On the potential upside of all the small-cap jewels, Chia only described it as “robust”.
SBC Corp is a Klang-based property company, with a notable joint venture project with Sabah-based Suria Capital Bhd to develop some 16.25 acres of coastal land in Kota Kinabalu as an integrated mixed development that will boost tourism to the state. Suria Capital is also on the list of 30 small-cap jewels.
Inari Amertron, an electronic manufacturing services provider, had last year doubled its production capacity via the acquisition of optoelectronics manufacturer Amertron Inc (Global) Ltd which has manufacturing facilites in the Philippines and China.
Telecommunications counter OCK Group targets to win more contracts from local telcos this year while continuing to expand its business around the South-East Asian markets. It expects to double its order book size to RM140mil.
Berjaya Auto is the exclusive distributor of Mazda vehicles in Malaysia. It aims for a 12% jump in sales to 10,000 units this year from 8,931 units sold in 2013, boosted by the launch of six new Mazda models this year.
In its latest corporate developments reported to improve its balance sheet, Press Metal has exited its loss-making Chinese smelter business and sold the 20% stake of its Samalaju plant to Sumitomo. The company is also expected to benefit from a global upturn in aluminium prices and premium.
The 2014 edition of the RHB Research Institute’s Top 30 Small-Cap Jewels will be launched tomorrow.