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Friday, November 29, 2013

Kimlun Corporation - 3Q weaker than expected on lower margins BUY

Source: http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/amresearch/42352.jsp

- We maintain BUY on Kimlun Corporation Bhd with a lower fair value of RM2.77/share (vs. RM3.20/share previously), following the weaker than expected 9MFY13 results.

- Kimlun posted a core net profit of RM22.9mil for 9MFY13, which is 39% lower than RM37.2mil last year. This made up 52% and 57% of our earlier and consensus full-year estimates, respectively.

- 9MFY13 group revenue was flattish at RM676mil YoY (vs. RM661mil in 9MFY12). This was due to a slower recognition of construction revenue (-12% YoY). Note that in 1HFY12, the group saw strong contributions from two big projects that had since been completed.

- Construction gross profit margin declined to 7% (vs. 9% a year earlier) due to a less efficient absorption of overhead costs and higher payroll costs. There was also additional capex for new equipment and costs incurred for the setting up of a cast yard.

- The slower construction revenue was mitigated by the manufacturing division (115% YoY topline growth) due to higher delivery of tunnel lining segments (TLS) and segmental box girders (SBG) for the KVMRT project. However, margins were squeezed (18% vs. 28% a year earlier) due to “carriage onward expenses” which were related to delivery cost of products.

- For the 9M period, Kimlun also booked a minor RM3mil in gross profit on the back of RM12mil in revenue for its maiden property project, Hyve in Cyberjaya.

- Despite a healthy balance order book of RM2.2bil as at end-Sept, the bulk of it would only be recognised next year onwards. This is because 68% of the total RM1.1bil new job wins were only secured in the 2H.

- We trim our FY13F-15F earnings by 10%-31% to account for lower margins, deferred recognition of construction jobs, and higher financing costs in relation to capex for new plants and equipment.

- However, we are not too concerned about its net gearing (0.6x as at end-Sept) as the group is undertaking a 1-for-4 rights issue with free detachable warrants that is expected to raise RM172mil.

- Potential jobs in the near-term include the TLS package (worth ~SGD100mil) for Singapore’s MRT Thomson line, which is expected to be awarded by year-end.

Source: AmeSecurities

Nam Cheong Ltd - Still at full steam

Source: http://singaporestockmarketnews.blogspot.com/2013/11/nam-cheong-ltd-still-at-full-steam.html#more

• Potential early beneficiary of renewed strength in offshore support vessel (OSV) market

• Earnings execution above estimates YTD in FY13; FY13/14 EPS estimates revised up by 6-8%

• Expecting healthy 2-year earnings CAGR of 22%; further upside if FY15 built-to-stock programme bigger than expected

• Maintain BUY with TP revised up to S$0.42, as we roll over valuations to FY14 earnings


Robust earnings execution YTD
On the back of improving industry dynamics, Nam Cheong has consistently exceeded our expectations on both order wins and earnings YTD in FY13. Its 3Q13 net profit came in at record levels of RM59.2m (up 88% y-o-y and 44% q-o-q) as top line more than doubled y-o-y to RM341m. Shipbuilding revenues were boosted by the sale of seven vessels during the quarter, while chartering segment saw additional contribution from two vessels. Shipbuilding gross margin came in better than expected at 23%, boosted by higher margin PSV sales.
Vessel sales momentum upbeat
YTD in FY13, the Group has already sold 20 vessels worth a total of US$432m, ahead of FY12 vessel sales (21 vessels worth US$423m). We estimate that 18 of the 19 vessels scheduled to be completed in FY13 and about 13 out of the 25 vessels scheduled to be completed in FY14 have been sold already. The Group’s FY15 new building programme has not been disclosed yet but could likely be bigger than FY14. 
Apart from the built-to-stock series, Nam Cheong is also building four ERRVs to be deployed in the North Sea and four MPSVs for Bumi Armada on a built-to-order basis. Its net orderbook is worth RM$1.4bn now.

Potential beneficiary of an upswing in the OSV cycle
As we factor in better margins amid potentially recovering asset values, and include higher contributions from the chartering segment, we revise up our FY13/14 net profit estimates by 6- 8%

Maintain BUY with higher TP of S$0.42, pegged to 10x FY14 earnings. Expect catalysts from strong earnings performance and upside potential from bigger FY15 newbuilding programme, when unveiled next year. Nam Cheong remains one of our top picks in the O&M sector. (Read Report)

国外晶片订单加持 东益电子营收看涨60%

Source: http://www.nanyang.com/node/581999?tid=462

(吉隆坡27日讯)在预计将获得来自美国、日本和欧洲等国大厂的感应晶片与发光二极管(LED)晶片订单,分析员预计,东益电子(GTRONIC,7022,主板科技股)明年下半年的营业额料可增加60%。

艾芬投行研究指出,这些感应晶片与发光二极管(LED)晶片订单的相关货物将在2014年中投入生产。

“欧司朗公司(OSRAM)及半导体公司CREE的订单增加,同时也带动东益电子营业额成长。”

该研究看好东益电子获利前景,给予“买入”投资评级,目标价格订在3.50令吉。

东益电子总执行长王合利在接受《星报》访问时说,公司的三大产品将成为未来的销售推动力,这三项产品包括照明领域使用的发光二极管(LED)晶片、智能器材的感应晶片,及视像器材使用的成像模块(imaging modules),这些产品主要输往美国、欧洲及日本。

他指出,公司将在明年斥资5000万令吉扩充产能,提高设计与发展业务。

“电子制造服务业在本季及下一个季度,将继续走缓,硬碟及个人电脑市场增长料将持平,智能手机市场则有上扬空间。”

KPJ Healthcare shareholders give nod to proposed bonus, rights issues

Source: http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2013/11/28/KPJ-HEALTHCARE-SHAREHOLDERS-GIVE-NOD-TO-PROPOSED-BONUS-RIGHTS-ISSUES.aspx

JOHOR BAHARU: KPJ Healthcare Bhd's shareholders today approved the company's proposed bonus issue and renounceable rights issue with free warrants, proposals that are strategic for its long-term growth.
KPJ Healthcare chairman Datuk Kamaruzzaman Abu Kassim said the proposed bonus issue would be capitalised from the company's share premium and retained earnings accounts to reward existing shareholders for their loyalty and continuing support.
In addition, he said the proposed rights issue would enable the company to raise funds for its continuous expansion and growth plans, raise equity capital and strengthen its capital base as well as potentially increase the group's market capitalisation. 
"The new warrants are expected to provide KPJ shareholders with further investments at an attractive conversion price," he said after the company's extraordinary general meeting (EGM) here today.
KPJ Healthcare has proposed a bonus issue of up to 329.77 million new shares of RM0.50 each on the basis of one bonus share for every two existing shares held on an entitlement date to be determined later.
It has also proposed a renounceable rights issue of up to 43.97 million new shares on a one-for-15 basis, together with up to 87.94 million free detachable new warrants 2013/2018 on the basis of two new warrants for every one rights share subscribed. 
"KPJ shareholders who are entitled to participate in these proposals will benefit from the future growth of the company and any capital appreciation arising from it," Kamaruzzaman said. 
At the EGM, shareholders had also approved the proposed increase in the company's authorised capital from RM500mil comprising one billion shares of 50 sen each to RM750mil comprising 1.5 billion shares of 50 sen each.

MKH earnings rise 34% on current and new projects

Source: http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2013/11/29/MKH-earnings-rise-34-on-current-and-new-projects.aspx

PETALING JAYA: MKH Bhd’s earnings rose 33.5% to RM103.4mil for the full year ended Sept 30, underpinned by a higher percentage of profit recognition of ongoing and new development projects. Revenue rose 23.8% to RM688.29mil from RM555.92mil.
These projects were the Pelangi Semenyih 2, Hill Park Home, Saville@Melawati, Pelangi Seri Alam, Saville@the Park, Bangsar and Mewah 9 Residence. There was recognition of a bargain purchase gain on the acquisition of subsidiaries totaling about RM31.2mil.
As at end-September 2013, the group had a locked-in unbilled sales value of RM503.2mil. For its fourth quarter, MKH’s earnings dropped 20.23% to RM24.17mil due to the inclusion of foreign exchange (forex) losses totaling RM63mil. This was due to the weakening of the rupiah against the US dollar and the ringgit from the plantation division’s US-dollar and ringgit borrowings.
For the said period, revenue increased 21.1% to RM217.85mil from RM179.88mil, contributed by the plantation division arising from its increase in sales of crude palm oil and palm kernel, and the property and construction division from ongoing and new development projects.
MKH said that its profit before tax, excluding the forex losses, amounted to RM89.6mil for the current quarter, which was 131% higher than the preceding year’s corresponding quarter profit before tax of RM38.8mil.
This was due to recognition of a bargain purchase gain on the acquisition of subsidiaries totaling about RM26.5mil by the property and construction division.
There was also higher profit contribution from both the property and construction, and plantation divisions.

Thursday, November 28, 2013

KSL Holdings - Strong results from progress billings

Source: http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/hleresearch/42129.jsp

Results

3Q13 core PAT rose 61.4% yoy to RM68.4m, with YTD net profit of RM182.9m making up 104% and 117% of HLIB and consensus estimates respectively.
Deviations

We believe the deviation was due to strong takeup for completed apartment units at KSL City in Johor Bahru as well as stronger than expected performance of the mall and hotel segments, as well as progress billings from Bandar Bestari @ Klang; we have no guidance from management in this respect.
Dividends

None, in line with our expectations.
Highlights

Yoy: 3Q PAT rose 61.4% yoy, mainly driven by the higher take up rate and earnings contribution from its flagship projects, mainly KSL City in Johor Bahru and Bandar Bestari @ Klang, as well as earnings contribution from its hotel operations in KSL City. Revenue generated from the mall operation also formed a major part of the increase.

Qoq: 3Q PAT was stable qoq (+2.6%), as all three major segments (property development, property investment and hotel) were relatively unchanged qoq.

No dividends declared… Management continues to limit payout to shareholders, we believe in an effort to preserve funds for: (1) working capital needs for its flagship RM2bn development in Klang; and (2) potential land acquisitions, as its relatively clean balance sheet (only 0.12x net gearing) offers it close to RM680m of gearing headroom before net gearing hits 0.5x. Therefore, we maintain our forecasts of zero dividends going forward.
Risks

Execution and demand risk of Bandar Bestari, as the group's future earnings will be highly reliant on this flagship project; an overall downturn in the property sector.
Forecasts

FY13-15E forecast raised by 45-48% to factor in: (1) Stronger earnings flow through from KSL City and Bandar Bestari; and (2) Stronger recurring income from mall and hotel operations.
Rating

HOLD

Positives: (1) Good proxy to IDR growth story; (2) new expansion to Klang Valley; and (3) growth in recurring investment income.

Negatives: Lack of liquidity; project concentration risk.
Valuation

Given the prevailing macro and sector headwinds, we maintain discount to RNAV at 40% and keep our TP at RM2.04. HOLD

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 28 Nov 2013

檳城大型工程開跑‧建築業料受惠

Source: http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/42220.jsp

(吉隆坡27日訊)檳城州政府為應付州內基建發展的需求推出多項大型工程計劃,包括即將峻工的第二檳城大橋,解決檳島交通阻塞的4條繞道/新道路計劃,甚至是預期在2015年動工的第三通道海底隧道計劃等,預料將帶動州內的產業發展領域,而建築業領域也將是多項建築工程計劃主要贏家。
MIDF研究到檳城實地巡視,包括拜訪檳州政府及一些建築及產業發展商,獲悉第三通道(海底隧道)最新發展,包括計劃在2015年開始動工興建,以及改善州內道路基建等,將使檳州產業市場及建築商等從中受惠。
MIDF指出,最引人注目的新工程計劃,相信是第三通道海底隧道計劃,預料將最早在2015年開始動工興建,主要是為應付道路基建擴展需求而建。
整個第三通道工程建築成本約為63億令吉。
MIDF指出,負責工程的ZENITH財團有限公司擁有強勁的策略合作伙伴,包括中國鐵道建築(CRCC)將負責興建70%工程,北京城市建築集團(BUCG)則建築其餘30%工程,斯里丁宜公司及朱德拉斯公司,在融資方面並沒有問題。
第三通道計劃將分成3個工程配套進行,整個計劃料在2025年完成峻工。海底隧道工程計劃的建築成本為32億令吉,而整個工程計劃成本為63億令吉,以及3條高速大道成本則為23億令吉。
MIDF認為,目前建築業領域擔心政府放緩大型工程計劃,使明年表現不令人鼓舞,惟政府料將實現大選諾言而繼續推行基建改善計劃,加上私人及外國領域的工程合約等,預料將支撐本地建築領域的基本面。
大道工程料推動產業
MIDF拜訪檳州數家產業發展商,房產訂購率仍然令人鼓舞,特別是第二檳城大橋計劃推動峇都交灣以及檳島東南部的產業市場。預料未來的第三通道及數項新高速大道附近一帶的產業市場將被帶動走高。
打房料打擊產業
MIDF指出,最新政府在2014年財政預算案推出多項打房措施,預料將打擊產業市場,包括檳城在內,市場也有點擔心檳城的高檔及豪華產業發展的持續性,把產業領域持“中和”評級。
檳城是大馬第三大產業市場,僅落後在巴生河流域及柔佛州。2012年,在全國產業交易價值中檳州佔了約9%。反觀巴生河流域佔50%以及柔佛州則佔11.7%。
檳城島的土地有限,使一些大型產業發展計劃是在填地中進行,包括東方(E&O,3417,主板產業組)占地1千英畝的斯里丹絨檳城,怡保工程占地152英畝的TheLight,以及麗陽機構(TROP,5401,主板產業組)及瑋力產業(IVORY,5175,主板產業組)佔地35英畝的檳城世界城等。根據房屋價格指數,檳城的產業價格是大馬第二高。
MIDF指出,除了一些以檳城市場為主的產業發展商,例如東方,瑋力產業以及恒大(TAMBUN,5191,主板產業組)等;而其他大資本產業公司也在檳城擁有顯著地庫,如怡保置地(IJMLAND,5215,主板產業組)佔總發展值的22.5%,馬星集團(MAHSING,8583,主板產業組)在檳城總發展值佔12.4%,實達集團(SPSETIA,8664,主板產業組)則佔2%,以及雙威(SUNWAY,5211,主板產業組)則佔8%,檳城產業市場的興衰料對這些產業公司有顯著影響。
(星洲日報/財經‧報道:李文龍

超级强势股 - Latitude

Source: http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/42221.jsp

硬战**超级强势股(latitud,7006)
latitud是目前组合里最大主力

现价:1.34
目标价:4.00
信心指数:70%
投资期限:1年

《为何看好家具业?》
1)美国经济开始复苏,而且美国房屋指数开始上升,美国对家具需求也随着提高
2)GST实行后,家具业原本10%的sale tax,将被6%的GST取代。家居业即将受惠于GST的实行

《为何在众多家具业,选择了latitud?》
1)最新季度报告出炉,公司单季net profit:0.14亿
以目前市值:1.3亿,把最新业绩全年化,公司2014FY的net profit可突破0.6亿
本益比只有区区2

2)latitud是一家制造家具的公司,在越南2间厂,泰国1间,大马3间,大约93%产品出口至美国,但是越南厂的盈利贡献占了95%或以上(从季度报告,越南业务成长速度惊人)

3)由于latitud在越南业务是under *latitude tree international*(在新加坡上市)
而latitud持有77%的latitude tree international
目前作为母公司的latitud计划以1.11亿左右全面收购latitud tree international旗下子公司业务(包括越南业务),虽然表面上母公司以1.11亿收购,但实际上,母公司不需要付出任何一分钱,只需在账目上做出调整,尚诺全购完成,越南厂将完全100%属于latitud,预计未来净利会更上一层楼

4)在越南厂,公司大量增产以及扩建warehouse,可知管理层对公司未来前景非常看好
管理层也透露今年的增产可使FY2014的营业额额外增加0.4亿左右

5)越南劳工薪金廉宜,所以在salary&cost management方面,latitud更胜homeritz
毕竟2014年,大马最新薪金制度将强制推行

6)latitud资产表非常健康,现金:1.13亿,银行贷款:0.91亿,net cash company

7)以五年平均25%派息率,估计今年的dividend yield可达4.5%,或更高

8)在季报显示,latitud放弃大量做美元对冲,所以尚诺美元走强,latitud作为出口家具业。即将受惠于美元走强
(虽然公司的银行贷款大多数是以美元计算,但很庆幸的是,公司有不少trade receivable是以美元计算,这足以抵消美元走强,所带来的冲击)

9)这个季报显示,latitud在大马业务转亏为盈,越南业务业绩惊人,也促使latitud业绩再创高峰

10)公司现金流强劲,归功于今年公司资本开销减少,促使depreciation高过capex情况出现

《投资策略》
**在考量了多项外围因素和组合风险管理
决定把大部分资金调动至目前较为看好的latitud和supermax
手头上的oskvi,insas几乎都开了一番
所以把这两家心水股进行套利,剩下免费股
至于另几家近期表现不错的prlexus,suria,magni,由于业务依然增长,所以没考虑卖出
当然并非全部股都开番,手头上的mbsb目前尚未摆脱跌势

后语:对于latitud这一战,是今年蛇年最后一场硬仗,希望大家能祝福丐帮此战*马到成功*。感恩。

Kimlun's rights issue gets Bursa Securities nod

Source: http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2013/11/27/Kimlun-rights-issue-gets-Bursa-Securities-nod.aspx

Kimlun said on Wednesday the exercise involved 60.11 million new rights shares of 50 sen on the basis of one rights shares for every four existing shares held and 60.112 free detachable warrants on the basis of one warrant for every rights share subscribed.
Based on the indicative issue price of RM1.10 per rights share, the company expects to raise RM66.12mil, of which RM64.92mil would be used as working capital.
The gross proceeds to be raised from the exercise of the warrants would be RM106.39mil based on the indicative exercise price of RM1.77 per warrant. The gross proceeds to be raised from the exercise of warrants will be utilised as additional working capital.

Fitters profit up 111% on property, palm oil

Source: http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2013/11/28/Fitters-profit-up-111-on-property-palm-oil.aspx

PETALING JAYA: Fitters Diversified Bhd’s net profit surged 111% to RM10.9mil in the third quarter ended Sept 30 from RM4.75mil a year earlier, boosted by an increase in contribution from its property development project and palm oil business.
Revenue rose 32.7% to RM131.8mil. Managing director and founder Datuk Wong Swee Yee said the group was contented with the results given that it was “slightly affected’ by a temporary stoppage at its green palm oil mill earlier in the year.
“We are growing steadily in our fire services division and the group’s property division is enjoying very good returns and we are looking forward for our next launch, which is ZetaPark DeSky Residence,” he said in a statement yesterday.
Sales from its property division climbed 233% to RM94mil in the third quarter, more than twice of the RM40.85mil generated by the group’s traditional fire fighting equipment and services unit.
The sharp increase was driven by higher unit sales of the group’s ZetaPark’s “LOFT” service apartments and improved construction billings.
Nine months earnings rose to RM30.88mil, or 10.66 sen a share, compared with RM17.54mil reported a year ago,
Fitters also announced it had entered into a Memorandum of Understanding with Molecaor Technologia S.L. to invest in Molecor (SEA) Sdn Bhd to enter the market of PVC pressure Pipes in Malaysia and other South-East Asian markets.
Fitters will emerge as the major shareholder in the company with a 65% stake.
“We are very excited to embark on this business venture that we foresee will bring the group to the next phase of growth,” Wong said.

Benalec shares fall on disappointing Q1 results

Source: http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2013/11/28/Benalec-shares-fall-on-disappointing-Q1-results.aspx

PETALING JAYA: Shares of Benalec Holdings Bhd fell to a record low of 94 sen, below the company’s initial public offering of RM1 following the announcement of a disappointing first quarter ended Sept 30 financial results.
The counter closed 7 sen, or 6.9%, lower with 14.3 million shares done. The counter has been on a downtrend in the week ahead of the release of the company’s quarterly results.
In the first quarter, Benalec posted a net loss of RM4.65mil compared with a net profit of RM22.79mil a year ago. Revenue fell 75% to RM14.40mil from RM57.75mil.
CIMB Investment Bank Bhd analyst Sharizan Rosely said Benalec’s annualised first quarter core net loss was lower than the research house and consensus full-year net profit estimate of RM77mil.
“This was a negative surprise. The loss was because zero land sale gains were recognised. The results were below expectations as we had overestimated margins and the timing of land sale gains,” he said.
Sharizan said the company’s revenue plunged 75% year-on-year in the first quarter, also due to delays in reclamation works. “Management said reclamation costs were rising, suggesting that our full-year earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margin assumption of circa 50% is not achievable. The absence of dividends was not a surprise.”
“Incoming land sale gains from the group’s Malacca project will drive profitability in the coming quarters. The group is targeting to monetise 181 acres over the next three quarters at an indicative price of RM38-RM39 per sq ft, with 35%-40% EBITDA margins, based on our estimates,” he said.
Analysts at Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd said the major disappointment was mainly due to slower-than-expected marine construction work progress for the quarter and also the delayed recognition from the sale of circa 180 acres, which is expected to contribute from the second quarter of FY2014 onwards.
“Despite the recent concern over the group’s corporate governance issue and poor performance on its earnings, the outlook on its Johor project remains intact as talks with 1MY Strategic Oil Terminal Sdn Bhd have been progressing well. However, we do not exclude the possibility there would be another time extension beyond its upcoming expiry on Dec 11 in order to fine-tune details of this particular mega project before it could be concluded,” the analysts said.
Meanwhile, BIMB Securities analysts said the company came in largely below the house’s expectation. The analysts would be cutting earnings projection for FY14 and FY15 by 35.9% and 13.3% respectively.

BIMB Q3 net profit up 25%

Source: http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2013/11/28/BIMB-Q3-net-profit-up-25-Zukri-named-GIFA-Islamic-Banker-of-the-Year-2013-in-Dubai.aspx

KUALA LUMPUR: BIMB Holdings Bhd’s net profit surged 24.6% to RM75.4mil in the third quarter ended Sept 30, against RM60.5mil in the same quarter last year.
Revenue for the quarter increased 8.5% to RM696.02mil from RM641.58mil. Earnings per share was at 7.07 sen versus 5.68 sen.
For the nine months to Sept 30, BIMB’s net profit rose 19.3% to RM219.1mil from RM183.6mil a year ago. Revenue increased by 15% to RM2.08bil from RM1.81bil.
BIMB posted a consolidated profit before zakat and taxation of RM598.70mil for the nine-month period, up RM79.8mil or 15.4% over the previous corresponding nine-month period ended Sept 30, 2012.
“The higher profitability was mainly achieved on the back of higher operating results of RM32.5mil and an RM49.6mil improvement in allowances for impairment on financing and advances, investment and other assets, as well as the non-recurrence of provision for contingent liability,” group managing director/chief executive officer Johan Abdullah said in a statement.
He said: “BIMB’s consolidated net profit for the period under review stood at RM424.4mil, which recorded a growth of RM65.5mil or 18.2% compared to the same period last year. In tandem with the higher profitability, the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the company increased by RM35.5mil or 19.3%.”
BIMB said the group registered net financing growth of RM3.1bil or 15.7% for the nine months under review, as asset quality improved further with a gross impaired financing ratio of 1.39% as at Sept 30. Total capital ratio of unit Bank Islam Malaysia Bhd (computed in accordance with CAFIB-Basel III with effect from Jan 1, 2013) remained healthy at 14.18%.
Meanwhile, Bank Islam managing director Datuk Seri Zukri Samat has been named “Islamic Banker of the Year 2013” at the Global Islamic Finance Awards (GIFA). He received the prestigious award at the GIFA 2013 awards ceremony in Dubai held in conjunction with the 5th World Islamic Retail Banking Conference.
GIFA is the first of its kind in Islamic banking and finance. The awards recognise and celebrate the success and contributions of individuals and institutions in the Islamic financial services industry.
“I’m deeply honoured to be the recipient of this prestigious award. However, I wish to reiterate that the award is not for me alone but for the teamwork exhibited by all the staff of Bank Islam who have worked very hard to turn the bank into what it is today.
“I am also very grateful for the strong support given by Bank Negara and our shareholders, Lembaga Tabung Haji, the Dubai Financial Group and BIMB. This award marks another important milestone for the bank and will further motivate us to keep pushing towards excellence through innovation,” Zukri said in a separate statement.

HAFARY: Riding On Building Boom Over The Next Few Years

Source: http://www.nextinsight.net/index.php/story-archive-mainmenu-60/919-2013/7749-hafary-riding-on-building-boom-over-the-next-few-years

Written by Leong Chan Teik
Thursday, 28 November 2013 07:08


Last FY13 bumper dividend was largely due to the disposal of an investment property. Historically, Hafary paid 20-30% pre-tax profit as dividends.TO SOME investors, the first thing that comes to mind regarding Hafary Holdings is the generous dividends it has paid out in the past two financial years.

For FY13 (ended June 2013), Hafary, the top Singapore-listed supplier of premium tiles, stone and other building materials, has paid 4 cents a share in interim dividend.

It will pay a final dividend of 2.5 cents a share. The payment date has not been announced yet but Hafary typically pays 6-8 weeks from the date of approval.

Since the final dividend was approved at the AGM on 25 Oct, it follows that the payment could be before Christmas, or sometime between Dec 6 and Dec 20.

The dividend aside (at a time when the stock trades at 22.5 cents), Hafary has a positive outlook, as its financial controller, Jackson Tay, described to analysts and fund managers this week. Several takeaways from the event:
Good turnout to hear the Hafary story. Photo by Tang Yibing1. Multi-sources of revenue: Most players in its industry are exclusively focused on a niche -- either retail or projects, and they tend to be limited in their product offerings. Hafary supplies a very wide range of products and has its hands in both retailing and projects. 

2. Home-building boom:This will continue to be a major revenue source for Hafary over the next few years.

As at end-Sept 2013, about 85,000 private residential units are under construction or under planned development. "We feel comfortable about the outlook for the next two years as there are still a lot of project launches."


Revenue from public sector projects shot up to $13.1 million in FY13 (ended June 30) from $3.6 million in FY12.
Public and private projects made up 43% of revenue in FY13 -- the rest was accounted for by general customers (retail buyers and renovation contractors, etc).HDB's building boom will extend to 2016, with 100,000 HDB homes targeted to be built between 2012-2016.

HDB has identified certain manufacturers of tiles and specifications for use in its newbuilds. Hafary works with these manufacturers and has garnered exclusive distributorships for certain tile designs.

Hafary is already a major supplier of tiles to HDB newbuilds, deriving $13.1 million in revenue from public projects in FY13 compared to $3.6 million in FY12.

2. Renovation: As the number of homes expands and as homes age, the renovaton business thrives.

With people are getting more affluent and more sophisticated in their renovation choices, their spending on renovation is set to rise -- which spells good business opportunities for Hafary.

"Overall, the market is getting bigger by the day."

2. MRT projects: MRT stations need tiles too -- and after its initial foray into this business, Hafary is eyeing more MRT station contracts as new MRT construction projects are put up for tender by the government.

3. Competitive edge: Hafary holds a lot of inventory -- some S$35 million worth as at end-June 2013 -- which enables it to deliver promptly to customers.

Accounting-wise, any inventory that is more than 4 years off will be written off on its books -- but Hafary will still try to sell these. The obsolecence rate is very low at around 3%.

In addition, as Jackson said, Hafary's after-sales support when any issues crop up is top-notch.

Overall, this business is a lot also about efficiencies that a player can squeeze out of its logistics, warehousing and manpower.

Hafary reckons it is doing well in these areas.

4. Barriers to entry: While the business might not seem to have high barriers to entry and could attract many entrants, Jackson disagreed.

"We see fewer competitors and zero new entrants as the capital investment is fairly large. Existing players are getting out and we are taking their market share."

He estimated that Hafary has about 50% of the general market and 15% of the projects market.

5. China losses: Hafary's investment in an associate in China which manufactures tiles has been fully impaired to the tune of $4 million in FY13.

Thus, there will not be any losses to be recognised going forward.

In FY2013, after excluding the one-time gain on property disposal and associates' loss, Hafary achieved net attributable profit of $9.3 million, compared to $4.7 million in FY2012.

HAFARY's AGM: Rosy Outlook For Next 2-3 Years On HDB Building Boom

Source: http://www.nextinsight.net/index.php/story-archive-mainmenu-60/919-2013/7574--hafarys-agm-rosy-outlook-for-the-next-2-3-years-on-hdb-building-boom

Written by Cheong Si Sien (aka Divads27)
Tuesday, 29 October 2013 07:00

This is an edited version of the post by Cheong Si Sien aka Divads27 in our NextInsight forum.


Time & Date: 9.30 am, 25 Oct 2013.
Venue: Wilkie Edge

THIS WAS my first time attending Hafary Holdings’ AGM. I met a friendly and cheerful CEO, Mr Eric Low, and the rest of the directors.

The standard procedures of approving the resolutions stated in the Notice of AGM were carried out and passed without objection, except for the resolution pertaining to the performance share plan.

A shareholder expressed his opinion that the plan was too vague.

But the resolution was passed with no objection.

The resolution which I think everyone was looking forward to was to approve the final dividend of 2.5 cents which, based on the closing share price of 22 cents on the day, gave a yield of more than 11%.

During the Q&A session, a private investor introduced himself as someone who invested in bonds and shares and was a new investor in Hafary. He posted some relevant and interesting questions.

The CEO, Mr Eric Low, was ever so friendly and patient in answering them.
Here is the essence of the session:

Q: What is the outlook for the company especially in the project segment?

A: For the next 2 to 3 years, the outlook for construction is positive and will benefit Hafary. The contribution from HDB projects (supplying tiles to HDB's Build-To-Order projects) will gain momentum as HDB goes full steam ahead with building of flats. Currently HDB projects constitute 10 to 20% of the total revenue from Hafary's project segment.

Q: Is Hafary the number one tiles providers in Singapore?

A: YES, was the simple answer from a smiling Mr Eric Low. He estimated the market share to be about 20 to 30% locally.

Q: Can you elaborate on the 18 Sungei Kadut St 2 International Furniture Park project?

A: Two main purposes for this acquisition. First, it is to secure the property for setting up of a warehouse to replace the one in Defu Lane as the latter's lease is expiring soon.

Secondly, working with listed company Sitra to venture into other areas of the furnishing industry as stated in an announcement on SGX website.

Q: What is the percentage of revenue from new products other than tiles?

A: Currently, the revenue from new products other than tiles, eg: sanitary products, marble etc. forms 5 to 10% of total revenue. The company will tap on its pool of over 1,000 loyal designers and contractors to grow the revenue from non-tile products.

Q: Are you concerned over your high inventory?

A: The company carries 6 months worth of inventory. The high inventory is due to an increase in business. For example, Hafary stocked up on marbles as its is venturing into the marble segment and there are increases in HDB BTO projects which require tiles. Mr Eric Low said high inventory is in fact a good sign as it means the company is expanding.


Hafary's dividend track record.... note that the upcoming final dividend of 2.5 cents comes after a stock split. In other words, investors who bought in pre-split would effectively be receiving 5 cents a share as final dividend.Q: Can the high dividend be sustained?

Mr Low seems confident, and he referred to the company’s good track record of dividends for the past few years. FY13 dividends came mostly from the gain from the sale of the Aljunied property.

Subsequent years’ dividend will be 20 to 30% of the profit of the group's operating business. As for divestment of properties at hand, the company has no plan to do that yet.

(My view: UOB Kayhian report in July, based on share price of $0.199, expected Hafary's dividend to have a yield of 6.3% on $0.199 share price = 1.25 cents dividend for FY14 and FY15.

But 1.25 cents seems to be on the conservative side. UOB Kayhian estimated a dividend of 4.25 cents for FY13 (post share split), at 21.3% yield, but the actual dividend was 5.25 cents for FY13 (post share split) which works out to be 26.4% yield.

I think with HDB building more flats in the 3 new towns, Punggol Matilda, Tampines North and the new centrally-located estate of Bidadari, I think the profit of Hafary should surprise on the upside.

The CEO mentioned HDB contribute around 10-20% of the revenue for project segment. So there is plenty of room for revenue to grow for the HDB project.

He seems confident of the prospect for the next 2 to 3 years. After that, the company has to depend on how well the construction sector performs.

Q: Will the company suffer more losses from the China operation?

A: The company faces difficulties in managing its China operation and has totally written off the investment. Thus the worst case scenario is over. The company will not incur any more losses from the investment. The company has also gained valuable lessons from the experience.

I left the AGM hopeful of the next 2 to 3 years. As for what lies after that, only time will tell.

周顯 - 買股票要值博 贏面大 輸極有限

Source: http://www.mpfinance.com/htm/finance/20131128/columnist/en30_en30.htm

買股票要值博 贏面大 輸極有限  2013年11月28日

【明報專訊】有一些股票,當我聽到了消息之後,會馬上飛撲大手「身」買入。通常是一隻我已經研究了很久很久的股票,已經「心大心細」很想買了,如果再加上一個消息,這就等於一滴催化劑,分量不用太多,已經足以催化了。

又有一些股票,當我聽到了消息之後,稍看它的基本資料,就會細細注先買一點點,再研究,昨晚所聽到的協盛協豐(0707)就是一個例子。這是我在執筆之前的一個晚上聽到的,我在起之後,立刻排隊去買,然後才動筆寫此文。

這通常是基本因素很好、upside很大、downside很小的股票,就算萬一消息不確實,都不會輸錢,但如果消息確實,就可以贏大錢了。

很多人聽貼士和買股票,看的是贏不贏錢,而我,則是看upside和downside。如果一隻股票,有機會贏十倍,但只會輸十零個巴仙,這種股票,就算是買4隻,輸1隻,也沒有什麼相干。

投資無必勝 只有值博率高低

這好比日前我去賭馬,問我哥哥拿貼士,要知道,我哥哥的馬是好勁好勁的,賭馬贏錢好比收租咁收。他給了我兩隻貼士,一隻跑第一,賠4.7倍,另一隻則包尾,那麼,他的貼士算是打和,還是贏大錢呢?當然是後者了。

在賭馬的世界,沒有必勝的馬匹,但有值博率最高的馬;在股票的世界,也是一樣,我玩的,就是值博率。

所以,在我的心目中,輸十個八個巴仙,是沒有所謂的,因為一隻股票是可以贏幾倍的。像協盛協豐這種股票,市值兩億鬆,金融海嘯重來都輸唔到去邊,但一旦線人有料到,可以贏一兩倍返來。這就叫做「值博率」。

Wednesday, November 27, 2013

华尔街教父——本杰明·格雷厄姆

Source: http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/42002.jsp

本杰明·格雷厄姆被誉为华尔街教父,算是巴菲特的师傅,算是一代宗师,到底他的人生是怎么样的呢?今天就让惧婪来解析下这位宗师级投资家的一生经历。
本杰明·格雷厄姆语录
●由股市造成的错误迟早都会由股市自身来纠正,市场不可能对明显的错误长久视而不见。
●动机比外在表现更能确定购买证券是投资还是投机。
●内在价值不能被简单地看做是公司资产总额减去负债总额。
●作为一个成功的投资者应遵循两个投资原则:一是严禁损失,二是不要忘记第一原则。
股市向未被人视为精英基本之地,华尔街则是衡量一个人智慧与胆识的决定性场所。本杰明·格雷厄姆作为一代宗师,他的金融分析学说和思想在投资领域产生了极为巨大的震动,影响了几乎三代重要的投资者,如今活跃在华尔街的数十位上亿的投资管理人都自称为格雷厄姆的信徒,他享有“华尔街教父”的美誉。
格雷厄姆初入股市
本杰明·格雷厄姆1894年5月9日出生于伦敦。在他还是婴儿的时候,伴随着美国的淘金热潮,随父母移居纽约。格雷厄姆的早期教育是在布鲁克林中学完成的。在布鲁克林中学读书时,他不仅对文学、历史有浓厚的兴趣,更对数学有着非同寻常的喜爱。他喜欢数学中所展现的严密逻辑和必然结果,而这种逻辑的理智对于以盲目和冲动为特色的金融投资市场来说,永远都是最为欠缺的。
从布鲁克林中学毕业后,格雷厄姆考入哥伦比亚大学继续深造。虽然他在哥伦比亚大学求学期间,不得不迫于生存的压力,以打工来维持生活和交纳不菲的学费,但他坦然面对生活的种种坎坷,在一批优秀导师的指导下,更深地把头埋进书本和学问当中,从知识中不断吸取营养。1914年,格雷厄姆以荣誉毕业生和全班第二名的成绩从哥伦比亚大学毕业。但为了改善家庭的经济状况,格雷厄姆需要找一份报酬较为优厚的工作,为此,他放弃了留校任教的机会,在卡贝尔校长的力荐下开始步入华尔街。
1914年夏天,格雷厄姆来到纽伯格·亨德森·劳伯公司做了一名信息员,主要负责把债券和股票价格贴在黑板上,周薪12美元。虽然这份工作是纽约证券交易所最低等的职业之一,但这位未来的华尔街教父却由此开始了他在华尔街传奇性的投资生活。
格雷厄姆很快就向公司证明了他的能力。在不到三个月的时间里,他就被升职为研究报告撰写人。由于他充足的文学修养和严谨的科学思维,以及渊博的知识,很快他就形成了自己简洁而富有逻辑性的文风,在华尔街证券分析舞台独步一时。
也正是纽伯格·亨德森·劳伯公司给格雷厄姆提供了一个很好的实践与训练场所,才使这位未来的股票大师开始全面熟悉证券业的一整套经营管理知识,了解了包括证券买卖程序、行情分析、进货与出货时机、股市环境与股市人心等在内的实际运作方法。尽管格雷厄姆未受过正式的商学院教育,但这种源自亲身实践的经验,远远比书本上的描述来得更为深刻有力,这给他日后在股票理论上的探索,打下了极为坚实的基础。
公司老板纽伯格经过仔细观察,发规格雷厄姆身上蕴藏着巨大的潜力与才干。不久,格雷厄姆就又被提升为证券分析师。升任证券分析师是格雷厄姆一生事业的真正开始。
当时,人们习惯以道氏理论和道·琼斯指数来分析股市行情,而对单一股票、证券的分析尚停留在较为原始、粗糙的阶段,而且普通投资者在投资时通常倾向于债券投资方式,而对于股票投资,投资者普遍认为过于投机,风险太大,令人难以把握。之所以造成投资者作出如此选择,一方面是因为债券有稳定的收益,而且一旦发行债券的公司破产清算,债券持有人较股东有优先清偿权,购买债券的安全系数明显要高于购买股票;另一方面主要是因为一般公司仅公布笼统的财务报表,使投资者难以了解其真实的财务状况。格雷厄姆透过那些上市股票、债券公司的财务报表,以及对那些公司资产的调查研究发现,上市公司为了隐瞒利润或在债权清理时逃脱责任,常常千方百计地隐瞒公司资产,公司财务报表所披露的是低估后的资产,而这一做法造成的直接后果就是反映到股市上的股票价格往往大大低于其实际价值。操纵者可以通过发布消息来控制股价的涨跌,股市完全在一种几乎无序而混乱的状态下运行。
格雷厄姆决定拿隐瞒大量资产的公司开刀。他开始从上市公司本身、政府管理单位、新闻报道、内部人士等多种渠道收集资料,通过对这些收集到的资料进行研究分析,搜寻那些拥有大量隐匿性资产的公司。
1915年9月,格雷厄姆注意到一家拥有多家铜矿股权的矿业开发公司——哥报海姆公司,该公司当时的股价为每股68.88美元。格雷厄姆在获悉该公司即将解散的消息后,通过各种渠道收集这家公司的有关资料,对这家公司的矿产和股价进行了详尽的技术分析,发现了该公司尚有大量的不为人知的隐蔽性资产,通过计算,格雷厄姆准确地判断出该公司股票的市场价值与其实际资产价值之间有一个巨大的价差空间。他认为投资该公司的股票将会带来丰厚的回报,建议纽伯格先生大量买进该股票。纽伯格先生接受了格雷厄姆的建议。当1917年1月哥报海姆公司宣布解散时,纽伯格一享德森一劳伯公司从这笔买卖中赚取了数十万美元的利润,其投资回报率高达18.53%。
格雷厄姆作为证券分析师,因其对投资股票的准确判断而开始在华尔街有了一些小小的名声,他决定在华尔街小试牛刀。
他应一些亲戚、朋友之邀开始尝试为一些私人做投资。刚开始时,格雷厄姆所操作的私人投资确实获得了良好的收益,但一年后发生的“萨幅轮胎事件”却给格雷厄姆带来一记重创。
当时在华尔街暗中盛行一种买入即将公开上市公司股票,待其上市后再从中套利的操作手法。格雷厄姆的一位朋友向他介绍说,萨幅轮胎公司的股票即将公开上市。格雷厄姆未及仔细分析,便联合一批同事、朋友分批购入萨幅轮胎公司的股票。但这些股票认购纯粹是一种市场操纵行为,幕后操纵者在将该股股价狂炒之后,突然抛售,致使包括格雷厄姆在内的大批投资者被无情套牢,而该股票最终也无法上市。
“萨幅轮胎事件’给格雷厄姆上了生动的一课,使格雷厄姆对华尔街的本质有了更深刻的认识,同时,也使格雷厄姆从中得出了两点经验:一是不能轻信所谓“内部消息”,二是对人为操纵市场要保持高度的戒心。这些都促使格雷厄姆逐渐走向成熟。
1920年,格雷厄姆又荣升为纽伯格·亨德森·劳伯公司的合伙人。他继续通过实践积累更多的经验。随着他的一个又一个辉煌的胜利,他的投资技术和投资理念日渐成熟。
在格雷厄姆看来,投机并不是一项好的投资,因为投机是建立在消息上面的,其风险非常高。当股价已升至高档的上端时,很难说哪一只股票没有下跌的风险,即便是绩优股也不例外。所以,从严格的意义上来讲,基于事实本身的投资和基于消息的投机,两者所蕴涵的风险是截然不同的。如果一家公司真的营运良好,则其股票所含的投资风险便小,其未来的获利能力一定比较高。同时,格雷厄姆还认为,风险在股市上是永远存在的,没有风险就没有股市,任何一个投资者要想成功,均需依靠行之有效的技巧来规避风险并进而获利。格雷厄姆将期权买卖交易运用到规避投资风险上,为自己的投资组合设计了一整套系统保险方案,如当一证券看涨时,仅花少许金额买下它的待买期权,待日后升值时再以约定价格低价买进;当某一证券看跌时,花少许金额买进其待卖期权,以便将来下跌后再以约定价格高价卖出。期权买卖利用其杠杆作用,可以以小搏大,使得无论市场走向如何,都具有投资获利的潜力。即使对证券价格走向判断失误,其损失最多只限于购买期权时所投入的一小笔资金,而不至于一落千丈。
格雷厄姆规避风险的技术对于那些时刻担心自己的投资会因证券市场的变幻莫测而损失贻尽的投资者而言无疑是一种万全之策。格雷厄姆也因此在华尔街树立起了自己独特的信誉。
1923年年初,格雷厄姆离开了纽伯格·亨德森公司,决定自立门户。他成立了格兰赫私人基金,资金规模为50万美元。格雷厄姆决定以此为基础,大展宏图。他选中的第一个目标就是赫赫有名的美国化工巨头:杜邦公司。
1920年,美国军火巨头杜邦公司利用通用汽车公司正陷于暂时无法偿还银行贷款的财务困境,通过一场蓄谋已久的兼并战,最终兼并了通用汽车公司。杜邦公司对通用汽车公司的兼并形成了两公司交叉持股的状况。到了1923年8月前后,由于战争结束,美国经济进入复苏,杜邦公司失去了军火暴利来源,股价急剧下滑,每股股价仅维持在297.85美元左右;而通用汽车公司因汽车市场需求的大增而利润直线上升,每股股价高达385美元。
格雷厄姆注意到杜邦公司和通用汽车公司股价之间存在巨大的差距。经过分析,他认为由于杜邦公司持有通用38%以上的股份,而且这一份额还在不断增加,所以市场现阶段两种股票之间的价格差距就是一种错误,而由股市造成的错误迟早都会由股市自身来纠正,市场不可能对明显的错误长久视而不见,一旦这种错误得到纠正之时,就是有眼光的投资者获利之时。
格雷厄姆不仅大笔买进杜邦公司股票,而且更大笔地卖出通用汽车公司的股票。这样,他就会因杜邦公司股票上涨和通用汽车公司股票下跌而双向获利。两个星期后,市场迅速对这两公司股价之间的差距作出了纠正,杜邦公司股价一路攀升,升至每股365.89美元,而通用汽车公司股票随之下跌,跌至每股370美元左右。格雷厄姆迅速获利了结,不算他卖出吃过通用公司股票之间的差价,其单项投资回报率高达23%。这使格兰赫基金的大小股东们都赚了大笔的钱。
格兰赫基金运作一年半,其投资回报率高达100%以上,远高于同期平均股价79%的上涨幅度,但由于股东与格雷厄姆在分红方案上的意见分歧,格兰赫基金最终不得不以解散而告终。但这却使格雷厄姆意外地遇到了他的最佳黄金搭档——杰诺姆·纽曼。纽曼具有非凡的管理才能,处理起各种繁杂的事务显得游刃有余,这使格雷厄姆可以腾出更多的精力来专注于证券分析,作出投资策略。
格雷厄姆·纽曼公司的成立
格雷厄姆和纽曼组建了新的投资合伙公司——格雷厄姆一纽曼公司,格雷厄姆负责最核心的分析和投资策略,纽曼负责处理与投资有关的各种具体事务。新基金从一开始就表现得极为强劲,因为格雷厄姆既有基本理性分析的沉稳性,又有股市炒手超常的洞察力和嗅觉,他的操作使新基金成绩斐然,其中较著名的是他与洛克菲勒的美孚石油公司之战。
洛克菲勒是美国无可争议的石油大王,他所创立的美孚石油公司曾以托拉斯的方式企图垄断整个美国的石油市场,但最终被华盛顿联邦最高法院判定违反了《垄断法》遭到解散。按照法律,美孚托拉斯被分割成39个在理论上相互竞争的公司。而随着美孚托拉斯的分割,几乎很少有人再去注意那些因分割而散布在美国大地上的昔日洛克菲勒家族的分支机构和企业的详细状况。
20世纪20年代,美国公司的真实状况一般比较隐秘,使人难识其真容。格雷厄姆经过调查发现,查阅公共服务委员会所存的各公司记录有助于揭示那些公司真实的财务状况。于是,他直奔公共服务委员会,将一些公司的重要数据记录后,再回到华尔街对那些资料进行详尽的研究分析,终于他捕获到他所要瞄准的目标——从洛克菲勒集团中分离出来的8家石油管道公司。格雷厄姆决定首先拿北方石油管道公司开刀。
根据格雷厄姆所搜集到的财务数据显示,北方石油管道公司当时在股市上的市价只有280万美元,而它所持有的铁路债券就有360万美元,显然,它的投资价值被严重低估了。造成这一市场错误的根本原因是投资者没有发现该公司那笔庞大的隐形资产一一铁路债券。而在格雷厄姆看来,当一家公司坐拥一大堆资产而不能创造任何利润时,它便理所当然地应成为投资者的目标。徒然拥有价值而不能为企业所用,那么发现它总比让它沉睡要好得多。
格雷厄姆在买入北方管道公司5%的股份后,和另一位在北方石油管道公司占有相当比例股份的律师结成同盟,并联合了占总股份38%的中小股东,在董事会会议中提出议案,要求将公司持有的铁路债券兑现.并发给股东相应的红利。因格雷厄姆提出的议案完全符合(公司法》的规定,无奈北方石油管道公司只得同意该议案,发放红利。结果,格雷厄姆不仅每股分得一定美元的股利,而且还在众多投资者的追风下,从股价的上涨后获利颇丰。
随后,格雷厄姆又从洛克菲勒集团分离出的其他石油管道公司中挤出其隐藏的资产,获得了数额可观的利润。格雷厄姆也因此获得了“股市猎手”的称号。
格雷厄姆一纽曼公司在格雷厄姆正确的投资策略下,其投资报酬率每年都维持在30%以上,远远高于同期道·琼斯工业指数的上涨速度。但格雷厄姆的骄人业绩既非来自恶意的炒作,又非来自幕后的操纵,而完全是靠他的知识和智慧。他已将证券投资从原始交易的混炖中,提升到一个依靠理性和技术分析确定投资方向并进而获利的新层面上。
格雷厄姆在处理投资项目的同时,不断地在投资刊物上发表关于财经问题的文章,文章内容几乎涵盖了整个投资领域。文章文字精炼,且有独到的见解,深受读者好评。格雷厄姆试图通过在实践中对投资市场的观察、研究、分析,得出投资市场的规律性结论。为了便于将自己的观点形成理论,格雷厄姆决定开山立说,在其有关投资理论的讲授中整理、完善自己的理论。
格雷厄姆选择在自己的母校哥伦比亚大学开设“高级证券分析”讲座。在讲座中,他不仅讲授如何区分债券与股票的不同方面,更重要的是讲授如何运用价值指标、赢利指标、财务指标、债务指标、背景指标来对一个公司的资产、价值、财务状况等方面进行评估,证明其股票的投资潜力和投资风险。这些内容已涉及了格雷厄姆学说的基本方面,实际上他的证券分析理论框架已初具雏形。
格雷厄姆的证券分析讲座使许多人受益良多,他在投资理论方面的真知灼见获得热烈的反响,他的影响也从此开始走出华尔街,向社会上扩散。
格雷厄姆在开设讲座期间,其证券业务更加红火,格雷厄姆一纽曼基金以及由他掌控的私人投资更是财源滚滚。这些都使格雷厄姆踌躇满志,准备大干一场。
到1929年年初,美国华尔街股市的年平均股价已比1921年上涨了5倍。屡创新高的股市吸引了大量投资者的目光,人们不顾一切地拥入股票市场,股票市场成了一种狂热的投资场所。股票价格直线上升,成交金额不断创出新高。但考虑到当时股票的平均利润只有2%,银行短期利率有8%,而道·琼斯工业指数的平均报酬率却高达5%,股价的不断攀升是极不正常的。
格雷厄姆对此虽有担忧,但在潜意识里却不相信危机会真的来临。他仅仅是按照他的避险策略进行避险,并未从股市中撤出,这使格雷厄姆在接下来的股市大崩盘中遭到致命的打击。
1929年9月5日,华尔街股市一落千丈,开始动摇了投资者的信心。虽然华盛顿等地不断发出叫人们放心的消息,但9月、10月两个月,股市仍呈下跌趋势。
10月24日,华尔街股市突然崩溃,短短几小时之内许多股票狂跌50点左右,后虽有所回升,但弱势已成。
10月28日29日,华尔街股市在抛售浪潮的冲击下,彻底崩溃。
格雷厄姆虽然在他的投资组合中已采取了相应的避险策略,使他的投资在股灾初起时比别人损失少得多,但由于他没有意识到问题的严重性并没有及时从股市中撤离,反而逆市操作,连续使用卖空、买空等多种手法进行避险,从而越陷越深,难以自拔,最终遭到毁灭性的打击,格雷厄姆几乎到了破产的边缘。幸亏纽曼的岳父艾理斯·雷斯及时向格雷厄姆一纽曼基金投入75000美元,才使格雷厄姆暂时避免了破产。
格雷厄姆凭着对客户的忠诚、坚忍的勇气和对操作方法的不断修正,到1932年年底终于开始起死回生。格雷厄姆一纽曼基金的亏损也渐渐得到了弥补。但这次股市大崩溃还是给格雷厄姆留下一个深刻的教训和经验:时刻注意规避高风险。在以后的每笔投资中,他总是尽可能追求最高的投资报酬率,同时保持最大的安全边际。正如他日后对此所作的比喻:“桥牌专家在意的是打一局好脾,而不是大满贯。因为只要你打对了,终究会赢钱,但若你弄砸了,便会准输无疑。”

GDP to grow 5%-5.5% next year: MIER

Source: http://www.thesundaily.my/news/890992

KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 27, 2013): Malaysia's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 5% to 5.5% next year and 5.5% to 6% in 2015, the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER) said, driven by domestic demand.

The think-tank is maintaining its 2013 GDP forecast of 4.8%, driven by the services sector which contributes about 60% to GDP.

"Our forecast is contingent to the world forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). According to IMF, Europe will be going out of recession next year… this will give us some energy to grow better," its executive director Dr Zakariah Abdul Rashid (pix) told reporters at the MIER National Economic Outlook Conference 2014-2015 yesterday.

"The Chinese economy is also moderating but we have already factored in the moderation of the Asian economy. On the whole, we (Malaysia) will improve in 2014 compared with 2013 but only by a small amount…this is only our initial forecast, we will review (the figures of the GDP) again when we enter 2014," he added.

Zakariah also sees domestic demand as main driver of growth next year, despite the improvement in external demand.
"External demand will not drive the growth but its contribution will improve. The main driver is still domestic demand. I personally feel that we have been asking them (domestic sector) to work very hard, especially households.

"But now we are shifting from private consumption to private investment. Therefore private investment will have to do a lot more work going forward in 2014. If you look at the growth rate of private investments, it is faster than growth rate of private consumption," he said.

Zakariah added that projects under the Economic Transformation Programme must continue and the government must have the energy to continue pushing these projects and the economy forward rather than placing too much burden on private consumption and households, which are limited by rising household debts.

"In the past, domestic demand drove the economy and we hope it will continue to do so. What limits it is household debt. Our household debt is rising despite Bank Negara Malaysia's (BNM) measures. This issue is not easy to address because it deals with household behaviour and it is not easy to change behaviour.

"Also in the past, we asked households to work hard. A substantial share of domestic demand is actually contributed by households and they have contributed quite well. But there was a price to pay and that is debt," he said.

Zakariah reckons that the country must work towards a level of salary that matches productivity and although the minimum wage was implemented this year, there were some hiccups and labour market reforms will take some time.

"The key word is labour market reform. Household debt is high because the labour market is not remunerated well. They (employers) ask them to work hard, but they are not paid well," he added.

INSTA網財測下調

Source: http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/86068?tid=18

(吉隆坡26日訊)INSTA網(INSTACO,0069,創業板科技組)主要股東近期沽售持股,加上新合約可見度有限,令興業研究轉持審慎看法和下調該公司盈利預期。

興業指出,在過去兩個月,INSTA網首席執行員龔蘇清及銷售和項目管理董事吳新賢減持股票或憑單,其中龔蘇清持股仍保持在14.5%,而吳新賢則從14.5%降至7.8%,同時,兩人已悉數沽售手上所有憑單(總共29%或1億零200萬張),另兩位主要股東張卓陽和王賽金(人名皆譯音)則未售股。

由於龔蘇清和吳新賢是該公司營運要員,此最新進展令人警戒。而他們在接受興業研究詢問時也未能給予滿意的答覆,令該行對ISTA網及其前景持審慎看法。

基於ISTA網的合約流可見度有限,以及為慎重起見,興業在財測中剔除2千500萬至2千600萬令吉的光纖貢獻以及來自1M Utama私人公司的2億零500萬令吉合約,2013/14財政年盈利預測因此大砍14%/29%,ISTA網原本指這些合約可望在下半年到手,但至今毫無下文。

該股的主要風險包括電訊公司共享網絡的趨勢日愈升高、設立基建資產時面對條例和執行風險以及其服務的接受率低於預期。

興業在下調財測和本益比估值從13倍降至10倍之後,將INSTA網的合理價從51仙下調至29仙,評級也從買進降級至“中和”。(星洲日報/財經)

Perodua's new Rawang plant to be world class

Source: http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/perod26/Article/
REPLICATION OF JAPANESE FACTORY: Improved defect per unit rate of 0.05pc

SECOND national carmaker Perusahaan Otomobil Kedua Sdn Bhd's (Perodua) new manufacturing plant in Rawang, Selangor, which is currently under construction, is set to be the first world-class highly-efficient car manufacturing plant in the country.

Perodua executive director Zainal Abidin Ahmad said the RM790 million factory, a replication of Perodua's Japanese partner Daihatsu Motor Co's high-tech plant in Fukuoka, Japan, mirrors the company's serious efforts to be a competent global player.

"The new plant will have an improved defect per unit (DPU) rate of 0.05 per cent, which is a world standard. We plan to achieve world-class level through this new plant. This shows that Perodua has come a long way to be where we are today.

"Through our transformation activity, which started two years ago, we've seen a lot of improvements in Perodua's operation, where we managed to gradually reduce our operation cost from 15 to 30 per cent. With the new plant, we are very much at par with certain companies at the international level," he said during a media trip to Daihatsu Motor Kyushu plant recently.

The Daihatsu Motor Kyushu plant, which started operation in November 2007, was specially designed to produce light vehicles. It rides on the "Simple, Slim and Compact" concept, which allows the plant to annually produce the same number of vehicles as the older Daihatsu plant but using half of the latter's floor space.

Due to the compact structure of the plant, power consumption for the air-conditioning systems and other equipment in the building is reduced.

Zainal Abidin said Perodua is aiming to emulate at least 85 per cent of the Fukuoka plant's system for the new plant in Rawang, as certain aspects still need to be done according to local requirements and environment.

"For example, the plant in Fukuoka has a cool environment because of the local weather. The weather is hotter in Malaysia and so we have to install enough air-conditioners in the plant to make sure that our workers can work in a comfortable environment, which in turn will help increase productivity," he added.

Zainal Abidin said Perodua's new 65,000 sq ft plant, which is located next to its plant in Sungai Choh, will only focus on manufacturing new models, which includes those existing models that will go through a full-model change.

"At the moment, the new plant is for new models and also for what we call full-model-change. So, our next model, which we will introduce soon, will be manufactured in this plant," he said, adding that Perodua plans to manufacture one model from the plant for a start.

He said the company has allocated up to RM1.3 billion for the plant, inclusive of the cost of the plant as well as the assem-bly line for one model with an annual production capacity of 100,000 units for one shift.

SBC earnings up 30% to RM8.6mil

Source: http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2013/11/26/sbc-corp-earnings-up-30pct.aspx

KUALA LUMPUR: SBC Corporation Bhd posted a 30.52% increase in its second quarter results 2013 to RM8.6mil from RM6.6mil a year ago due to contributions gathered from its completed property projects.
Its revenue rose 8.89% to RM35.11mil from RM32.24mil a year ago while earnings per share stood higher at 10.48 sen against 8.03 sen a year ago.
For its first half, the group’s net profit rose 18.7% to RM14.97mil from RM12.6mil a year ago while revenue was up 0.4% to RM61.19mil from RM60.92mil a year ago,
In a filing to Bursa Malaysia on Tuesday, the group said its pretax profit of RM 19.27mil for the period compared to a year ago does not have much variance as the completed Peak Vista, Tower A @ Kota Kinabalu has been augmented by the commencement of construction of the Dex Suites @ Kiara East, Kuala Lumpur.
Moving forward, the group said it expects future performance to remain positive as projects such as the Dex Suites@Kiara East, Kuala Lumpur has commenced the super structure of the typical floor and the Cantonment Exchange@Jalan Ipoh has commenced site works.
“Further, the Peak Soho@Kota Kinabalu is targeted to be completed in this financial year,” it said.


Benalec’s outlook positive despite loss of RM4.7mil

Source: http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2013/11/26/Benelac-Outlook-positive.aspx

PETALING JAYA: Benalec Holdings Bhd posted a loss of RM4.7mil for the period ended September 30, 2013, its first quarter for the financial year 2014, falling by 121% compared to its preceding year corresponding quarter earnings of RM22.8mil.


The marine construction services company showed a revenue of RM14.4mil for the period, registering a decrease of 75.1% against the previous year’s corresponding quarter.

In a filing to Bursa Malaysia, Benalec attributed the reduction in revenue to “the completion of certain projects in Melaka, as well as lesser progress of work recognition from the Pulau Indah and Sentosa Cove projects in the current quarter”.

“We are still positive, basing our outlook on the fact that 180.59 acres of land will generate revenue of approximately RM254mil and profits for recognition over the subsequent quarters,” Benalec said.

Inari posts RM20.9mil earnings in the first quarter

Source: http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2013/11/27/Inari-posts-RM209mil-earnings-in-the-first-quarter.aspx

PETALING JAYA: Inari Amertron Bhd posted earnings of RM20.9mil for the first quarter of financial year 2013 ended Sept 30, 2013, increasing 182.7% from RM7.4mil for the previous corresponding quarter.
Revenues for the period were RM191.3mil, which represented growth of 250.1% compared to the corresponding quarter previously.
In a filing with Bursa Malaysia, Inari said that the higher revenue was mainly due to the consolidation of the revenue of the newly acquired Amertron Inc (Global) Ltd as well as higher trading volumes from the group’s existing businesses.
In line with higher revenue, the group’s gross profit for the current quarter – RM28.6mil – was 80.7% or RM12.8mil higher than the gross profit of RM15.8mil reported in the corresponding quarter in the previous year.
However, gross profit margin was 14.9% in the current quarter compared to 28.9% previously mainly due to lower gross margins from the Amertron business unit, which features a different product portfolio.
Inari said revenue contribution from the Amertron business unit was RM120.1mil, while the balance increase of RM16.6mil was from existing business.
“We remain optimistic about maintaining our profitable performance, as we operate in market segments that continue to be high-growth in the near future, such as the continued end-user adoption of smart mobile devices globally,” Inari said.

周顯 - 產品走錯路線 蘋果要「搵位沽」

Source: http://www.mpfinance.com/htm/finance/20131127/columnist/en30_en30.htm

產品走錯路線 蘋果要「搵位沽」
2013年11月27日

【明報專訊】大家知道,我對於美國的「蘋果」,在它的股價屢創新高之後,已經有了戒心,在喬布斯死了之後,開始看淡了,但是仍然恐怕它「最後反撲」,要知道,升勢完蛋前的最後一段出貨期,反而是升得最燦爛的時間。

現在當iPhone 5c推出了之後,我終於肯定了,它的管理層的智力大有問題,連最基本的市場學也不懂得,所以,我可以正式宣布,這公司已經玩完,現在的問題,只是「搵位沽」而已。

蘋果電腦最強是「型」

當年的蘋果電腦,以及喬布斯,最強的市場定位是什麼呢?答案只有一個字﹕型!

喬布斯從來不以低價去取勝,永遠是高一個檔次,但是卻型到飛起,令你不能不買。事實上,iPhone和它的最大對手Galaxy有很多的分別,但我認為,最大的分別是在一個﹕Galaxy有如韓國電器,實用、好玩,但質感差,iPhone的手感和質感卻是無可比擬的。一拆開手機,不,只要你去換電或換卡,便會發現,Galaxy的機背只是一塊輕飄飄的膠,很不實在,但iPhone卻實重得多。

市場上,並不缺乏低檔次的手機,太多了。但是,卻缺乏高一個檔次的手機,因為手機其實是身分和品味的象徵,當年的iPhone初登場,就是吃死了這個檔次。但是,打低檔次,卻非蘋果的強項。

恐步諾基亞後麈

所以,我認為,蘋果走錯了方向,現在沽空,正是其時。它可以死得有多慘?大家不妨看看幾年前,稱雄天下的諾基亞,今天如何慘情,就知道了。而沽空蘋果的利潤,只會比3年前,我初寫此專欄時,叫沽空思捷環球(0330)的利潤,還要高得多,因為,蘋果的市值更大,也即是說,有更大的下跌空間。

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

向孔子學做人,跟曹操學做事 - 馬雲

Source:

馬雲

做人:

1. 誠信:言而必有信。
2. 孝道:百善孝為先。
3. 悔過:知錯要悔改。
4. 志向:匹夫不可奪志。
5. 朋友:把握交友的度。
6. 寬容:是一種境界。

做事:

1.能屈能伸。
2.膽大心細。
3.苦練內功。
4.借力使力。
5.揣摩大勢。
6.領導之才。
7.永不言敗。

做人需要思想,做事需要魄力!

[转帖] 美國上司教會我的四個工作原則

Source: http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/41945.jsp

「請你記住,我付你錢來上班,並不是為了要你同意我的所有決定;如果你認為我的決策是錯誤的,請你第一時間提出來討論。還有,沒有必要請不要再加班了;你燃燒殆盡了對我一點好處也沒有。」
我絕對不會忘記,正式上班的第三個月,被老闆叫進辦公室,他對我說的這番話。
雖然在美國好幾年了,我一直認為我是非常認真工作的標準台灣人;我任勞任怨,加班不討加班費、老闆說好我一定全力以赴;不論我認不認同,我絕對百分之百支持老闆同事的決定;我負責的部分,我一定會做出應有的水準。更別提因為我的母語不是英文,我額外花在企劃案上時間和努力有多少;每天工作10-12小時是家常便飯。(延伸閱讀:台灣人,你為什麼這麼忙?
所以當老闆把我叫進辦公室的時候,我期待的絕對不是這番話。為什麼我老闆要這麼說?

1. 員工不是一台機器

身為決策團隊中的一員,我不應該是一台唯命是從的機器,而是能夠提供想法與創意的來源。這對我來說是困難的,因為我們的教育一直不鼓勵我們提出和主流不同的想法。但是其實每個人都有很多想法,只是我不習慣在討論的過程中快速的統整出來表達。(延伸閱讀:說出影響力:用專業達到影響力
在日常生活中,訓練自己表達對日常生活中大小事物有條理地發表看法。不論是與家人朋友討論新聞事件或是連續劇都好,練習快速精要的統整自己的邏輯看法。如果你不習慣這麼做,別急慢慢來,你跟大家一樣聰明,你只是需要時間練習。漸漸的,你也可以在開會中提出很完整的建議和重點。

2. 在腦力激盪衝突中產生的團隊決定,更經得起考驗。

在團隊討論決策的過程中,我常常不自覺地想要避免衝突,所以大部分的時候我是沉默的,尤其是當我的想法和大家有所牴觸的時候。
但是等等,為什麼團隊要討論?就是為了要激盪出不同的火花啊!火花怎麼產生?靠的就是不斷的碰撞。如果每個組員想法都是一樣的,決議或許很快就會達成共識。但如果你的想法和大家不同,絕對是因為你看到了別人看不到的地方;就算大家不同意你的看法,彼此也能夠因藉由討論,對現有的決策有更全面的共識。

3. 工作時間長,不等於工作效率好。

長久以來我一直覺得長時間的工作就和「工作努力」畫上等號,但是工作努力並不和工作效率成正比,工作時間正常也不代表就工作不努力。
只要學會有效率了利用零碎的工作時間,就能夠把工作做好又同時過有品質的生活。你管理好你的時間了嗎好好利用零碎時間,讓你不再感到忙碌,如果日理萬機的成功創業家們能夠管理自己的時間,你也一定可以用最有效的工作方法作出最多最好的事。

4. 員工流失率高,公司更花錢。

長時間的加班工作,員工常常不是因為健康的因素離開公司,就是因為無法適應長時間的工作環境而跳槽其他領域。當一個一百人的公司一年有十個年薪九十萬的人離職時,公司一年就大約損失了十二萬元;而這個十二萬元的費用主要是在招募新員工、其他員工在等待職缺被填滿時的超時工作薪水、訓練新員工等等的費用。一個精打細算的老闆或上司,一定懂得留下最好的員工,才能避免員工流失的不必要花費。
今天,我很感謝我老闆的當初的這一席話。我還是在學習工作與生活之間的平衡,但我喜歡自己的改變,也終於學會同時享受工作與也享受生活。

REX: Kick-Starts Unprecedented Drilling Campaign With Oman Well Spud

Source: http://www.nextinsight.net/index.php/story-archive-mainmenu-60/919-2013/7731-rex-unique-eap-business-model-spuds-unprecedented-growth

REX INTERNATIONAL HOLDING’S first offshore drilling campaign, an event eagerly anticipated by the investment community, has commenced this week, on track with the company's expansion schedule.
“We are going for the big offshore finds and that programme starts now, with Oman,” said executive chairman Dan Brostrom during an exclusive interview with NextInsight.

Unlike the typical exploration and production (E&P) company that generates income from crude oil production, Rex International intends to sell original oil in the ground and recycle the sale proceeds as capital for stakes in new concessions.

Current prices of original offshore oil in the ground range from US$5 to US$15 per barrel. The Oman prospect being drilled is about 17,000 square kilometers in size. This suggests that Rex International’s effective stake of 41.6% in the Oman concession can fetch a considerable amount.

By the time the Oman first phase test drilling ends this year, the following will be known:
1) If the oil at the Oman well is commercially recoverable
2) What the geophysical structure of the oilwell is

Mr Brostrom estimates that any sale from its Oman concession can only be completed up to a year later, as time is needed for negotiations and proving of oil reserves to and by prospective buyers.

“We intend to have 5 to 7 offshore drilling campaigns next year,” said Mr Brostrom. This could mean a phenomenal FY2015 performance for Rex International when oilwell sale proceeds roll in.

This rate of drilling campaigns is unprecedented among its E&P peers, and is possible only with Rex International’s unique business model.

A typical E&P company spends three to five years in securing a concession, conducting seismic survey, data appraisal and waiting for oilrig deployment before commencing exploratory drilling.

Rex International, on the other hand, has a business model that sidesteps much of this ponderous process.

With the exception of its first offshore concession from the Oman Sultanate, Rex now gains interest in oilfield concessions from concession holders who have already expended resources on gathering seismic data and other geophysical surveys.

For example, its effective equity interest in North Energy’s offshore licenses ranging from 3% to 8% came about through co-operation agreements for analysing seismic data from these concessions using Rex Virtual Drilling.

“There are many oilfield concession owners who have paid double digit millions for seismic studies and still don't know where the oil is.

"Now that Rex Virtual Drilling can analyse their seismic data in four to six weeks with a high level of accuracy, they are eagerly approaching us,” said Mr Brostrom.

From exploratory drilling to identifying recoverable oil reserves, Rex Virtual Drilling has proven to be more than 50% accurate compared to the global industry average of 15% when traditional methods are used.

"We don't sell our technology.  We are not a service company.  We will only use our technology for equity interest in concessions that we are keen on,” said Mr Brostrom.

The company's business model is the first of its kind among E&P players, and is the reason why it has is making good and may even exceed its aggressive claims of doubling oilfield concessions from 10 to 20 within a year of listing.

"Four months after listing, we have already grown our portfolio to 15 concessions, beating our target. We have spudded Oman according to schedule. With the added proceeds from our recent placement, we are well capitalised for our expansion plans and for our upcoming drilling campaigns," added Mr Brostrom.