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Wednesday, July 31, 2013

刘若英:顺遂人生会满无聊的

Source: http://www.zaobao.com.sg/wencui/entertainment/story20130731-235107


(联合早报网讯)台湾中时电子报报道,刘若英从唱片制作助理做起,后来被挖掘去拍戏。当年在录音室当助理的生活,让刘若英印象深刻,刚进职场得到许多宝贵经验。她说,“很多新人一开始多少会觉得不适应、很辛苦,但我希望他们能够珍惜,因为顺遂的人生会满无聊的”。

刘若英对全场近三千人分享她出道前的小趣闻。当年她从唱片制作助理做起,经常要帮录音室的乐手买便当、买槟榔,后来去拍戏得到亚太影后的殊荣后,回录音室继续助理工作,照常帮忙去买槟榔。

卖槟榔的摊贩见到她大惊失色,直呼“唉呦,你都当影后了怎么还吃槟榔啊!”刘若英笑说,当下她才知道,原来老板一直以为是她在吃槟榔。

刘若英说,她很幸运,能够从事自己喜欢的事,包括唱歌、演戏,但演艺事业起先也有很多不顺,例如曾经拍戏憋尿,一年住了十几次的医院。

刘若英说,有人说过“人生像茶叶蛋,愈多裂痕愈好”,自己很认同这句话。同场对谈的“五月天”主唱阿信也说,人生道路上也许很多困难,让自己伤痕累累,但愈多“裂痕”,愈多喜怒哀乐,人生更“入味”。



Globetronics Technology Bhd - Another Good Set Of Results

Source:

Globetronics’ 1HFY13 results were within our expectations, with net profit of MYR24.3m accounting for about 48% of our FY13F target. Y-o-y, 1HFY13 net income surged 53% on the back of a 29% y-o-y jump in revenue. EBIT margin improved to 16.9% from 14.7% in 1HFY12, underpinned by a better product mix, economies of scale achieved across most of its product segments and higher volume loadings from most of its customers. As at end-June, the Company is in a net cash position, with net cash per share of MYR0.48. We leave our forecasts unchanged, but lift our dividend payout projection to MYR0.16 (FY13F) and MYR0.18 (FY14F), which translates into decent dividend yields of 6.2% and 6.9% respectively. Maintain BUY with a FV of MYR3.00, pegged to a higher target P/E of 13.0x.

1HFY13 net profit surged >50% – in line. 1HFY13 results were in line with our expectations, with net earnings of MYR24.3m accounting for about 48% of our full-year target. 1HFY13 net profit surged 53% y-o-y from MYR15.9m in 1HFY12, on the back of MYR162.8m in revenue – a 29% increase y-o-y. The higher bottomline was largely due to margin improvement; EBIT margin increased to 16.9% in 1HFY13 from 14.7% in 1HFY12 as a result of a shift in product mix to higher margin products. Globetronics’ 1HFY13 effective tax rate of 15.7% was also lower than 1HFY12’s 18.4%, which was partly contributed by the Company’s 10-year pioneer status for its development of proximity sensors.

Better q-o-q results on higher volume loadings. Globetronics reported strong q-o-q results, with revenue of MYR85.5m (+23% y-o-y; +10% q-o-q) and net income of MYR14.1m (+46% y-o-y; +39% q-o-q). This was primarily due to higher volume loadings from its key clients. The Company managed to increase its production of timing and quartz devices at its Sungai Way plant to about 110m-120m units per month from about 60m units per month in FY12. Nevertheless, we are expecting a set of flat q-o-q results in 3QFY13, largely due to shorter working days in August as a result of the Hari Raya festivities and other holidays.

Bright prospect ahead. Going forward, we are upbeat on contributions from its timing and quartz crystal devices segment, LED components and sensors manufacturing. These three segments contributed to over 80% of its total sales in 1HFY13. Globetronics has been ramping up its production to cater for higher orders. Its timing and quarts devices production capacity has been ramped up to close to 134m units per month in June from about 120m units per month in 1QFY13. The Company is also targeting to produce 450m-460m dies per month to cater to orders from its main customer – Osram. In addition, it has been granted a 10-year pioneer status for the development of its proximity sensors and is also trying to obtain grant income from the Malaysian Investment Development Authority (MIDA).

Maintain BUY, RM3.00 FV. We are leaving our forecast unchanged, but are lifting our dividend payout projection. The company has been distributing attractive dividends given its favourable net cash position. The Company has further enhanced its balance sheet with no borrowings and a total cash pile of MYR131.0m (net cash per share of MYR0.48). We are expecting a total dividend of MYR0.16 and MYR0.18 for FY13F and FY14F respectively on the back of the stronger earnings visibility. These will translate into a dividend yield of 6.2% and 6.9% respectively. All in, we maintain our BUY call, with a higher FV of RM3.00, pegged to a higher target P/E of 13.0x against previous P/E of 12x. We deem the targeted P/E of 13x is fair which is slightly above its 5-year average P/E of 12x. Earnings growth is strong against its current valuation as 3-year P/E-to-growth (PEG) remained low at 0.4x.




Source: RHB

Fitch Ratings revised Malaysia's outlook

Source: http://www.btimes.com.my/articles/20130731141637/Article/

KUALA LUMPUR: Fitch Ratings revised Malaysia's outlook to “negative” from "stable" yesterday.
The revision of the outlook to negative reflects Fitch's assessment that prospects for budgetary reform and fiscal consolidation to address weaknesses in the public finances have worsened since the government's weak showing in the May 2013 general elections, it said yesterday.

In a statement from Hong Kong, the rating agency however said its long-term foreign and local currency issuer default ratings have been affirmed at `A-' and `A', respectively.

“Malaysia's public finances are its key rating weakness,” it added.

Federal government (FG) debt rose to 53.3 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) at end-2012, up from 51.6 per cent at end-2011 and 39.8 per cent at end-2008.

The general government (GG) budget deficit (Fitch basis) widened to 4.7 per cent of GDP in 2012 from 3.8 per cent in 2011, led by a 19 per cent rise in spending on public wages in a pre-election year.
“Fitch believes it will be difficult for the government to achieve
 its interim 3.0 per cent FG deficit target for 2015 without additional consolidation measures.”
It sees risks even to the achievement of the agency's 3.5 per cent deficit projection, as this already factors in one percentage point of GDP of spending cuts. 


“This leaves Malaysia's public finances more exposed to any future negative shock.”
Fitch however, acknowledges strengths in the composition of Malaysia's debt and in its funding base.

The federal government debt is mostly denominated in local currency (97 per cent at end-2012) and has a smooth maturity profile.

Affin Investment Bank economist Alan Tan however felt that Fitch's move would lead other international rating agencies such as S&P and Moody's to downgrade Malaysia's sovereign rating outlook to negative in the near term.

“With Malaysia's economic fundamentals remaining sound, as reflected in the improving economic outlook, sustainable current account surpluses and steady increase in foreign exchange reserves, it is unlikely,” he said, in a report.

Hong Leong Investment Bank economist Sia Ket Ee commented that the downgrade came faster than expected.

“We had earlier expected that rating agencies will wait until early 2014 for the the implementation of GST (goods and services tax) and also for the assessment of weak commodity prices on current account account and growth before the change in outlook.”

Apart form the depreciation pressure on the ringgit, he expects the Fitch downgrade to lead to a revisit of the fundamentals of Malaysia.

Other headwinds for Malaysia include more moderate growth outlook due to its exposure to China, weak commodity prices, fatigue consumption and peaking investment cycle.

Hong Leong also expects a less favourable balance of payments as current account surplus shrinks rapidly, which would lead to a waning of currency lustre.

成榮進軍印度阻力減

Source: http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/79517

(吉隆坡30日訊)成榮集團(MUDAJYA,5085,主板建筑組)預料未來數週內與印度政府簽署燃料供應合約(FSA),進軍印度電力業所面對的最棘手問題解決在即,旗下首家聯號發電廠無意外料在今年杪啟動。
大眾投資研究與該公司管理層會面後表示,印度最大電力業者――NTPC公司已經同意新燃料供應合約條款,打破僵持了超過1年的僵局,且已為旗下28家發電廠簽署FSA。
“這意味印度燃料供應問題已解決,截至本月24日,共有79家發電廠已簽署FSA,剩下52家有待簽署,成榮管理層估計數週內動筆簽署FSA,而在燃料問題解決後,該公司接下來目標放在今年杪啟動發電廠。”
儘管大眾研究對成榮將啟動期從原定的8月展延到今年杪有些失望,可同時認為展延時間仍處可管理範圍,成功簽署燃料供應合約已是一大驚喜,至少可解決發電廠空置風險。
成榮目前持有22億令吉合約在手,大眾研究估計該公司每年可攫取額外5億至7億令吉新合約,包括放眼攫獲更多發電廠工程,如北賴發電廠、曼絨發電廠和邊佳蘭綜合油氣中心發電廠等。
此外,大眾研究相信該公司產業發展業務持續走強,於未來作出更具意義的貢獻,成榮目前正計劃以2億3千萬令吉脫售旗下26層樓辦公樓,所得資金料用於融資價值2億6千500萬令吉的土地轉換交易。
“儘管有關地庫細節尚未公佈,可估計發展值約達10億令吉,該公司也可能以聯營方式在八打靈再也進行綜合產業發展計劃,因此估計目前貢獻約800萬令吉盈利的產業發展業務,將於未來作出更顯著貢獻。”
大眾投資研究保持成榮目標家3令吉40仙不變,給予“超越大市”評級,看好該公司在發電廠建築行業的專業經驗可讓該公司從電力開銷中受惠,強勁資產負債表和股票估值誘人也是大眾看好該公司的原因之一。(星洲日報/財經)

66億發展潛能被忽略‧富達遭大幅低估

Source: http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/79516

(吉隆坡30日訊)富達(PRTASCO,5070,主板建筑組)在加影De Centrum城鎮擁有100英畝地庫,達證券表示就當前股價計算,市場已全然忽略該公司產業業務蘊藏的66億令吉龐大發展潛能,相信股票價值已遭嚴重低估。

100英畝地庫11年未重估

達證券估計,單是上述100英畝地庫的現有市值,很可能即已超越富達現有股本的總市值。

達證券說,該公司最新數據顯示De Centrum100英畝地庫賬面值為1億1千萬令吉(每平方呎25令吉30仙),惟必須留意的是,該土地最後一次重估已是11年前,現有市值究竟為多少暫時無從知曉,因土地並未進行重估。

“不過,由於土地價值一般佔總發展值的10%到20%,因此用De Centrum綜合發展計劃的66億令吉總發展值計算,De Centrum100英畝地庫至少價值6億6千萬令吉(每平方呎152令吉),遠比該公司目前約4億2千萬令吉市值來得高。”

值得一提的是,華陽(HUAYANG,5062,主板產業組)近期在距離De Centrum約7公里遠的地區收購一塊3.73英畝地庫時,共付出5千690萬令吉或每平方呎350令吉,這讓達證券更加堅信富達已遭市場嚴重低估。

明年推4億產業

“由於該公司目前已啟動產業發展計劃,且近期推介的首階段2億5千萬令吉產業項目取得80%亮麗訂購率,該公司放眼乘勝追擊,預料明年中再推出另外4億令吉產業,協助有關地庫逐漸釋放內在價值。”

達證券補充,富達核心盈利目前主要來自道路維修和工程業務,持有聯邦和州政府長期道路維持合約和特許經營權,負責全國約1萬4千公里道路提供維持服務。

“該公司道路維修和工程業務目前還持有17億令吉剩餘訂單在手,且政府訂單仍擁有至少2年到6年合約期,未來3年盈利能見度清晰,且該公司已開始為更新政府道路維持合約展開努力,預料產業發展業務將進一步帶動未來盈利。”

此外,富達在過去5年來持續派發超過60%淨利,派息額介於7仙到14仙之間,假設今年派息率為8仙,意味週息率高達6.25%,達證券相信就該公司淨現金狀況而言,類似派息表現能夠持續。

考量地庫遭低估和道理維持及建築業務展望強穩,達證券給予富達目標價2令吉28仙,相等於2014財政年10倍本益比,較現有股價則有近80%揚升空間,惟暫時沒有給予評級。(星洲日報/財經)

沙地官司獲賠7907萬‧阿末查基股價走高

Source: http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/79521

(吉隆坡30日訊)阿末查基資源(AZRB,7078,主板建筑組)在沙地阿拉伯工程官司中勝出,仲裁庭判處兩位被告――AFU和KFF必須就Alfaisal大學發展計劃,賠償阿末查基9千257萬零300里亞爾(約7千907萬令吉)。

該公司目前正在當地法律顧問協助下,針對判決執行必要工作。

隨著上述利好消息,使該公司股價週二一度揚升5仙或5%至1令吉零5仙的全天最高峰。全天收市仍起4仙至1令吉零4仙,全天成交量為327萬2千400股。

分析

安聯研究認為上述發展正面,該公司將獲得的9千257萬零300里亞爾,足以應付清盤債券5千260萬里亞爾款項。該公司管理層表示,其餘3千萬里亞爾將作償還拖欠二手承包商的余款。

無回撥款項

安聯指出,由於該公司之前沒有為上述款項作出準備金,所以,將不會有攤回款項,這對該公司盈利沒有任何影響。目前該公司沒有在沙地阿拉伯競標工程,僅專注在大馬市場。

安聯認為,若將阿末查基印尼加里曼丹的種植地(4千750公頃)價值包括在內,每公頃保守估計為2萬令吉,將使潛在目標價可上調至1令吉56仙。

“該公司持有顯著工程合約,料從2014年開始作出較顯著盈利貢獻,3年复合平均成長率達到28.4%。”

興業研究看好阿末查基強勁盈利透明度;該公司目前手持22億令吉建築工程合約,及兩項特許專營權工程計劃,內部回酬率最少可達8%。

這些計劃包括值4億1千300萬令吉的大馬國際伊斯蘭大學的關丹校園,以及值15億5千萬令吉的東巴生河域高速大道,後者料可為該公司增加約15億令吉工程合約,使手握合約增加至37億令吉。

興業認為阿末查基前景樂觀,主因全國大選後市場情緒改善,小資本建築股也受看好,同時,該公司也具抗禦性的非建築業務――船只燃料供應及種植領域。

(星洲日報/財經)

惠誉下调大马展望至负面

Source: http://www.nanyang.com/node/552946?tid=462

(吉隆坡30日讯)因大马公共财政展望疲弱,国际评级机构惠誉(Fitch)宣布将我国展望从“稳定”调降至“负面”。

不过,我国长期外币与本币发行人违约评级(IDRs)仍分别维持在“A-”和“A”评级;短期外币发行人违约评级为“F2”,国家信用限额(Country Ceiling)则于“A”等级。

惠誉表示,政府势力在5月全国大选后转弱,促使财政改革和巩固政策展望也跟着趋弱,并直言我国的公共财政就是影响评级的弱点。

公共财政疲弱

该机构指出,联邦政府债务在截至2012年杪时占国内生产总值(GDP)比例已走高至53.3%,2011年和2008年杪分别为51.6%和39.8%。

同时,一般政府财政赤字占国内生产总值比例,也从2011年的3.8%扩大至4.7%,主因是大选前一年政府在公共薪资的开支提高19%。

“我们相信,若没有额外的财政巩固举措,政府难以达到2015年的3%财政赤字目标。

惠誉所设下的3.5%财赤预估,还是在国内生产总值开支缩减1%的前提下,足见大马公共财政未来的危险度。”

惠誉也点出,大马隐藏的“连带负债”(Contingent Liabilities)亦处于升势当中。

根据该机构,大马财政营收占国内生产总值的24.7%,相较之下,“A”评级国家中值则为32.8%。

“大马过于依赖石油相关营收,以及过高的补贴开支。”

忧债券到期外资撤 令吉跌破3.24

Source: http://www.nanyang.com/node/552947?tid=462

(吉隆坡30日讯)市场担忧外资在大马主权债券到期后将回撤资金,并预期我国来往账项将进一步恶化,令吉兑美元跌至3年低点。

亚洲市场闭市时,令吉兑美元触及3.2419令吉,创下自2010年7月1日以来最低水平。

令吉已连跌5日,陷入自去年12月以来的最长跌势,本月和今年至今已分别贬值2.4%和5.5%。

新加坡澳纽银行高级策略分析员吴坤(译音)认为,令吉贬值的其一原因为大马政府证券的大量赎回,引起市场关注,预期接下来继续可见更多资金从债券市场撤出。

法国农业信贷银行驻香港分析员戴锐斯科瓦茨也表示,我国主权债券拥有很大部分的外资,资本流出的现象将造成令吉表现低迷。

据了解,全球资金在5月时持有大马主权票据的33%,比例居东南亚国家之冠,这让我国证券在面对国际走势更趋脆弱。

来往账项恶化

除此之外,吴坤认为大马来往账项恶化也是促使令吉贬值的祸首之一。

“在今年首季,来往账项盈余从前一季的229亿令吉滑落至87亿令吉,预期在第二季录得8亿美元(25亿8800万令吉)的来往账项赤字,也是自1997年以来首次短缺。”



UOB KH says KSH Holdings has "good earnings growth and visibility for the next 5 years"

Source: http://www.nextinsight.net/index.php/story-archive-mainmenu-60/919-2013/7172-ksh-holdings-what-analysts-now-say

We initiate coverage with a BUY with a target price of S$0.71, representing a 29.1% upside. With locked-in sales from its successful property launches, KSH is likely to enjoy good earnings visibility over the next five years.

As an established contractor, KSH continues to replenish its orderbook with consistent contract wins with a comparative favourable margin compared to peers.

Strong earnings and free cash flow (FCF) support KSH as a dividend play with a current dividend yield of 4.5%.


Strong earnings visibility. Through its JVs, KSH has interest in 13 local property development projects.

Based on KSH’s existing (eight launched) projects and current sales, we conservatively estimate KSH to recognise a profit of about S$124.6m (S$0.32/share) over the next five years.

In addition, KSH’s 45% interest in its Beijing property development project, Liang Jing Ming Ju (LJMJ) Phase 4, is expected to contribute very positively to earnings for FY16.

We estimate a profit of S$32m (S$0.08/share) for a fully sold LJMJ, which is expected to be launched by 3Q13.

KSH.UOB7.13

投資宜順本性 勿做作 勿勉強

Source: http://www.mpfinance.com/htm/finance/20130710/columnist/en30_en30.htm

【明報專訊】星期日我多數留在家中寫稿,《財技密碼》是二十幾萬字的巨著,也已經快要完成了。寫得累了,便看10分鐘電視,那晚看的是《星夢傳奇》,好幾個藝人在比賽唱歌。

我看了不少這些歌唱比賽,發覺參賽者都有一個通病,就是唱的時候很喜歡表現自己的技巧,無論在感情上,還是在音階上,都要用盡全力表現自己,結果呢?本來他們的技巧是不錯的,但是因為拉得太盡,那就變成了很辛苦、很做作,一點都不好聽了。

我常常說,唱歌唱得好,和唱歌唱得好聽,是完全不同的兩回事。像鄧麗君,輕輕鬆鬆的唱出來,不是很好聽嗎?像肥媽,表現技巧是很高了,但我就不喜歡聽她唱的歌,太做作,太表演自己的歌藝了。

我教學生投資,也常常叫他們,不要太過辛苦,太過做作,只要順自己的本性去投資,就可以了。我最反感的投資者,是在上班時,開股票帳戶,目不轉睛地看股價,甚至是炒大上大落的牛熊證。

上班時炒股 容易變「雙失」

以上的這種做法,投資成績多半失敗,至於,工作方面,更是100%的失敗,因為日日看股票機,事業又怎會有成呢?

彼得林治的說法是﹕他最後悔的事,是沒有把股票機扔掉,否則其投資成績一定會更佳。

當然了,要想做到扔掉股票機,基本功夫一定要很好,鄧麗君之所以能夠輕輕鬆鬆的去唱,因為她在少女時,每天凌晨,就起到海邊練氣了。

周顯

Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Sona slides below IPO price in trading debut

Source: http://www.btimes.com.my/articles/20130730112912/Article/

 Sona Petroleum Bhd fell on its debut in Kuala Lumpur after completing Asia’s biggest initial public offering by a so-called blank-check company set up to raise funds for acquisitions.

The company, which has no assets or track record, dropped 18 per cent to 41 sen as of 11.05am in Kuala Lumpur trading, down from its offer price of 50 sen. The benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index retreated 0.3 per cent, declining for a fourth day.

Sona, which is betting on its management team to find oil and gas investments, drew RM3.4 billion from investors, six times more than RM550 million raised, according to managing director Datuk seri Hadian Hashim. The former Royal Dutch Shell Plc, like other industry veterans, are setting up these special purpose acquisition companies or SPACs to buy assets from the IPO proceeds.

"The nature of SPACs is that the upside isn’t immediate," said James Lau, director of portfolio investment at Pheim Asset Management Sdn, said in an interview in Kuala Lumpur. "The softer market conditions also didn’t help."


The other two SPACs in Malaysia, Hibiscus Petroleum Bhd and CLIQ Bhd, also declined on their debuts.

SPAC creators include Gil Amelio, former chief executive officer of Apple Inc, and Tony Hayward, one-time CEO of BP Plc whose blank-check entity, Vallares Plc, raised US$2.15 billion in 2011.

Kuala Lumpur-based Sona aims to compete with private-equity funds as it seeks out deals. The board is evaluating oil and gas acquisition proposals, said Hadian, who has more than 30 years of experience in the industry and is chairman of Malaysia’s Integrated Petroleum Bhd.

"We have 36 months to look for an asset and it’s to our shareholders’ interest to get it as soon as possible," Hadian, 55, said in an interview yesterday in Kuala Lumpur. "SPACs are a threat to private-equity funds because they open up a different floodgate of people that can be doing the same thing."

Malaysia has stolen a march on Singapore with regulations for SPACs ahead of its neighbor, which has a stock market that’s a fifth larger, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Investors in SPACs rely on the management team’s experience in a certain industry and their ability to secure deals. For the companies to succeed, operators must focus on making a profit so the stock market supports a rising valuation for the firm or asset acquired.

Should operators fail to buy an asset within three years, they must return funds to investors with interest, according to Malaysian Securities Commission guidelines.

"In their current form, we won’t buy SPACs because there’s no basis for valuation and that goes against our investment principles," said Pheim’s Lau. "But that doesn’t mean we won’t invest in such companies when their business models crystalize."

Malaysia, home to Asia’s three biggest SPACS, introduced a framework for such offerings in 2009. It’s unfair to describe them as blank-check companies because they need approval from regulators and shareholders to buy assets, Hadian said.

"Blank check means that I give you a check and I don’t know what you do with it," he said. "If the business model works in Malaysia, countries like Indonesia and Thailand that need funds to develop their resources will want to consider this option."

Singapore is still seeking industry feedback, according to Carolyn Lim, a spokeswoman for Singapore Exchange Ltd.

RHB Investment Management Sdn Bhd and London-based Davidson Kempner European Partners LLP were among six cornerstone investors in Sona’s IPO, investing a total RM135 million, Hadian said.

"When you buy SPACs, you are betting on the management’s ability to deliver returns," said Ang Kok Heng, chief investment officer at Phillip Capital Management Sdn, where he helps manage US$428 million. "We bought some of Sona’s shares because we like the management."

Datuk Yusli Mohamed Yusoff, former CEO of exchange operator Bursa Malaysia Bhd, now heads Australaysia Resources and Minerals Bhd, which filed a prospectus to list as a SPAC.

"The guidelines are fair," Yusli said in a July 26 interview, predicting more of such share sales. "They provide entrepreneurs the opportunity to tap the market, while at the same time safeguard investors’ investments."-- Bloomberg

Mah Sing eyes govt partnership

Source: http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/mahsy29/Article/



MAH SING Group Bhd is eyeing government land redevelopment projects in the Klang Valley, Johor and Sabah to improve its earnings, said group managing director and chief executive officer Tan Sri Leong Hoy Kum.

Leong said the company is banking on government land to expand its business because of scarcity of "good private landbank" in strategic areas.

He said redevelopment of government land also offers the company good margins and will help to boost its earnings over the long term.

Mah Sing recorded a net profit of RM69.5 million for the first quarter ended March 31 2013, up 16 per cent from the same quarter last year.





"We aim to partner the government as a developer and develop the land in return for cash and kind," he told Business Times recently.

Property analysts said Mah Sing can get a profit margin of between 20 and 28 per cent from developing government land.

"Government land is cheaper to develop. Developers get certain privileges, such as faster development approval. These saves a lot of time and money," said an analyst.

Other developers have had similar deals with the government.

SP Setia Bhd, for example, have taken over several plots of government land in Kuala Lumpur in the past three years in deals costing more than RM150 million.

In 2011, it took over the 10ha land opposite Mid Valley City from Kuala Lumpur City Hall, where the KL Eco City project is ongoing.

Under a land swap arrangement, SP Setia also took over the 20ha Public Health Institute site in Bangsar.

Mah Sing has been actively looking to enhance the gross development value (GDV) of its projects with strategic land acquisitions in Greater Kuala Lumpur and Klang Valley, Penang, Johor and Sabah.

In 2011, Mah Sing secured a project to develop part of the former Pekeliling flats area into serviced residences and retail units with an estimated GDV of RM900 million.

But the project did not kick off as Mah Sing faced issues with the project owner, Asie Sdn Bhd.

Leong said Mah Sing is now eyeing to develop some parcels of the 942.92ha Rubber Research Institute (RRI) land in Sungai Buloh.

The RRI land development is the city's largest suburban property project and the project planner is the Employees Provident Fund.

Mah Sing is also eyeing the old Sungai Besi airport site and land surrounding the KLCC area.

"We are also looking at state government land in Selangor and studying several proposals in Iskandar Malaysia and Kota Kinabalu," Leong said.

Swiber wins contracts worth $551 mil

Source: http://www.theedgesingapore.com/the-daily-edge/business/44890-swiber-wind-contracts-worth-551-mil.html

Swiber Holdings, the engineering procurement installation and commissioning service provider says that it has won two contracts worth a total of US$435 million ($551 million).

One of the contracts worth US$330 million was won by the Swiber group, is. The other contract, valued at US$105 million, was clinched by a Swiber group joint venture company.

Swiber says both contracts would start immediately and are expected to be completed by 2015. Swiber has been successful in executing complex offshore projects in regions such as Asia and Latin America, says group CEO Francis Wong. “Geographical diversification will indeed continue to be the cornerstone of our growth path in the offshore oil and gas industry.”

莊家理論看樓價升跌

Source: http://www.mpfinance.com/htm/finance/20130730/columnist/en30_en30.htm


【明報專訊】香港在未來3年至4年的新樓潛在供應量是7萬個單位,對於這個數字,以這個數字對未來樓價影響究竟是升,還是跌,眾說不一。我在這裏並不打算對樓價作出預測,只是想就人們分析樓市的方法作出一個說法而已。


我是想用炒股票做莊的方式,去為樓價升跌作出一個說明式的比喻。

做莊的時候,要把股票炒高,是如何計算沽售壓力的呢?

假設公司的總發行量是10億股,有「九成乾」,即大股東及其一致行動人士總共持有了90%,即1億股的股票「街貨」。假設現時股價是9元,街貨的總市值就是9億元了。理論上,只要莊家持有9億元現金,便可以「睇圍」,把有的「街貨」都買光了。

但如果股價升了一倍,「街貨市值」便從9億元,升至18億元了,換言之,潛在的沽售壓力便升了一倍。計算方法就是這樣。當然,如果莊家本身又沽出了1億股的貨,沽售壓力又會增加一倍。

樓宇供應量增如股票街貨多了

在樓市方面,理論也是一樣。如果樓價升了兩成,而供應量不變,那就需要多兩成的資金,才能夠維持樓價不變。如果樓宇的供應量也升了兩成,那就又需要另外兩成的額外資金,才可以維持樓價不變了。

所以,我們可以從此得出結論,一至兩成的供應量或價格改變,如果其他一切變數不變,便可以引致樓價上升或下跌一至兩成。

當然,影響樓價或股價的原因還有很多,例如說,市場氣氛,又例如說,二手樓的供應量,即是現有股東也在沽貨,種種其他因素,都會影響到價格。但是,其基本原理,卻是不會變的。

周顯

Monday, July 29, 2013

Lian Beng Group - And the sky clears

Source: http://sgx.i3investor.com/blogs/sgxstockwarrant/9871.jsp



Strong year to come. Lian Beng posted a full-year revenue of SGD505.6m (up 13.6% YoY) on contributions from its construction and manufacturing of concrete arm and net profit of SGD39.4m (down 24.3% YoY). Excluding a one-off SGD7.9m gain from sale of investment property in FY5/12, net profit would have fallen by 11%. We expect property development earnings to begin to shine through as well as ex-Seletar Garden and Changi Road sites to launch in the following year. Maintain BUY with TP raised to SGD0.69.

Within expectations. FY5/13 underlying net profit of SGD39.4m was within expectations mainly because of strong construction earning and manufacturing of concrete which was offset by a lack of property development earnings and a contraction in construction margins. A final dividend of SGD1.25cts was announced, lower than last year’s of 2cts.

Residential stakes to bear fruit. To recap, Spottiswoode Suites (exDragon Mansion), Midtown Residences (ex-Hougang Plaza), KAP Residences (ex-King Albert Park), NEWest (ex-Hong Leong Gardens) were launched respectively in FY5/13. So far the residential take-up rates are impressive - 89.6%, 60.6%, 98.2%, and 62.5% respectively. We understand for NEWest, all residential units have been sold out, with the remainder of unsold units as Triplex Town Houses that require a higher nominal amount for investors to fork out. Commercial units have almost been fully sold for MidTown Residences, KAP Residences and NEWest with ASP of approximately SGD5,500 psf.

Stay true to the core. As of now, Lian Beng’s construction book continues to be very healthy and stands at SGD1.3b through FY5/16, In 4 th quarter alone, Lian Beng won five contracts totaling SGD411m – Oxley Tower @ Robinson, ex-Midlink Plaza turned hotel, Goodwood Residences, Flora Drive and a 12-storey office block.

Maintain BUY. Lian Beng continues to execute strong earnings in its core segment. Maintain BUY, TP raised slightly at SGD0.69.

Source: Maybank Kim Eng Research - 29 Jul 2013



Jaya Tiasa is my best bet

Source:

25th July 2013

As you all know, the KLCI is striking the historical high and investors have to be more careful in their stock selection. You should be a net seller and do not buy any share unless it is really undervalued. Do not take unnecessary risk.

The last time I wrote about Jaya Tiasa to Dali as my friend and he posted it on 6th July 2013 on his blog which attracted many commentaries, some are rude and senseless. That is why I feel obliged to write this piece. Time will tell who is right.

In my last article, I said that my family members had accumulated 23 million JT shares and I was not asking you to buy to support the share price. Since then we have bought some more and we now have a total of about 34 million shares.

My reason for writing this is to satisfy my own ego which is my greatest weakness. Another reason is to do some charity by teaching you how to make money from the stock market. In fact, almost all my wealth is from the stock market. For example, I made a fairly big sum from TWS and TWSP and many of you can recall that I also wrote to recommend you to buy. Of course many did not believe me. Those who have bought must be laughing.

I am not a professional analyst and I have nothing to gain if you buy or not. I am aware that I will have no place to hide if you buy it at the current price level of around Rm 2.10 and lose some money.

There are so many criteria for stock selection. Most professional analysts consider the current earning is most important because it is so difficult to predict the future. That is why they are not interested to buy JT now as it is not showing much profit because most of the palms are young. I prefer to accumulate slowly when Fund Managers are not buying.

Reasons to own Jaya Tiasa shares
1. Jaya Tiasa’s major business is timber and plywood. After cutting down the timber, they started planting oil palms in 2002 aggressively. They have planted about 62,000 ha. The average age of their palms are about 5/6 years old. That is why the company is not showing much profit and professional fund managers are not interested. As a result the price has been depressed for almost one year. The current price has formed a base and it is safe to buy it. See below price chart:








1.


2. If you look at the FFB production / palm age chart below, you can see there will be sustainable FFB production growth over the next 10 years. Among all the criteria for stock selection, sustainable production/profit growth prospect is the most important. When the palm is 4 years old it can produce 7.7 tons of FFB per ha and when it is 10 years old it can produce 27.2 tons. That means it has a production growth rate of about 3.5 times in 6 years. What business can offer you such growth rate?



That is why most of the older plantation companies are cash rich. The younger companies, like JT has to use their cash for the construction of mills and expand their plantation area.


3. The whole plantation sector is so depressed due to its prolong weak CPO price. Like any commodity cpo price will recover. If you look at the 5 years price chart below, you can imagine that it will sooner or later recover. Always buy when people are fearful!


4. Palm oil is largely grown in Indonesia and Malaysia. Fortunately it cannot be grown in China, India and US or EU. Due to continuous population and economic growth, there will be increasing demand for eatable oil. There is absolutely no good reason why soya bean oil is selling at a higher price than palm oil when it is proven that it is not superior to palm oil. Please read my recent article on the Fight the Smear Campaign against Palm Oil.

5. As reported, the price of timber and plywood has increased by about 50% due to the Japanese demand for the reconstruction of the damages caused by the recent tsunami. I will move a resolution in the coming AGM to list the company’s timber business. I believe all shareholders will support my proposed resolution. This will benefit JT shareholders. For example IOI Corp is listing their Property business and IOI Corp shareholder will be given one IOI Property share for every three IOI Corp shares held.


6. As shown in the last annual report, most of the largest top 30 shareholders were financial institutions. The 30thlargest shareholder was CIMSEC nominees (Asing) Sdn Bhd Bank of Singapore Limited for Profit Centre Asset Management Limited holding 5,639,916 shares. They all know the company has sustainable profit growth. This is reassuring to me and all serious investors.

7. The total issued shares is 974 million X Rm 2.10 = Rm 2,045 million plus about Rm 500 million bank loan= Rm 2,545 million divided by 62, 000 ha planted area = Rm 41,000 per ha which is comparatively cheap without considering their timber and plywood businesses. The EV per ha for many of the famous plantation companies is more than Rm 100,000 per ha.

Conclusion: This share is good for serious long term investors. It has sustainable profit growth prospect for the next many years which is the most important criteria for stock selection. It is not meant for day traders.

Coastal Contracts Bhd - Order-book crosses RM1b mark

Source: http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kenangaresearch/33842.jsp

News Last week, Coastal Contracts (“COASTAL”) announced that it had secured contracts for seven offshore support vessels with a total value of RM425m.

Five units were for anchor-handling-tug-supply (AHTS) vessels; one was a 300-pax Accommodation Work Barge, and the last unit was a 85m Subsea Support/Maintenance vessel. Deliveries are scheduled for 2013-2014.

Comments The new contracts boost COASTAL's order book to above RM1b from RM720m previously.

We are excited as the YTD 2013 vessel sales of RM859m have surpassed the total 2012 vessel sales of RM698m and believe this signifies the improving outlook for the shipbuilding industry.

Looking back, the previous peak was in 2008 where COASTAL locked in RM919.2m of vessel sales.

Outlook Net profit margin was guided to be around 15-25% from FY12E onwards due to the normalisation of market conditions for the shipbuilding industry in the region.

COASTAL's maiden jack-up rig is due to be delivered in mid-14, which spearhead its move into asset-ownership versus the previous buildand-sell model. According to our channel checks, there are >40 jack-up rig contracts in South-east Asia that are expiring from mid-CY13 to CY15. Given the abundant opportunities, it is likely that COASTAL should be able to secure more contracts.

Forecast We are maintaining our FY13-14E net profit forecasts for now pending COASTAL's 2Q13 result in end-Aug.

Rating Maintain OUTPERFORM

Valuation Our unchanged target price of RM3.87 is based on a target CY14 PER of 12x based on 15% discount to the CY14 PER of 14x ascribed to "PERISAI"; OP; TP: RM1.76).

While this may seem high for COASTAL given that its 5-year average +2 standard deviation level is only at 10.1x, we believe the valuation upgrade is justified as it is on the verge of adding new earnings streams and evolving to an offshore asset owner.

Risks i) Lower-than-expected margins; and 2) Inability to secure contracts for maiden jack-up rig.

Source: Kenanga



居林地库看涨4倍

Source: http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/temperature_probe/33886.jsp

请问居林(KULIM,2003,主板种植股)公司的业务如何?前景好吗?目前的低价位可否买进?
谢谢
陈先生(新山)
居林(KULIM,2003,主板种植股)在2012年取得每股66仙的盈利,主要是将快餐业务QSR品牌(QSR)和肯德基(KFC)脱售予母公司柔佛机构(Johor Corp),录得一次过的特别盈利。
不过,公司也把脱售所得当成特别股息派发,因此,2012年的股息大涨成98.44仙。
预料在2013年,每股盈利将大幅度调低。
从今年首季成绩看来,公司日常营运只带来约2000万(每股0.22仙)盈利,可见其专注在种植业务,因棕油价低迷而面对不少压力。
不过,该公司决定增持新英棕油有限公司(New Britain Palm Oil)的股权,主要为了壮大公司规模。
新英棕油是一家在伦敦交易所和巴布亚新几内亚的莫士比港交易所双边上市的公司,居林在1996年开始投资在这家公司。
高股息难维持
若完成收购计划后,居林的种植地库将提高约4倍。
如果看好棕油后市反弹,那么居林做为纯种植股,可以从中得利。
不过,由于居林股额庞大,加上把脱售服务业所得悉数派出,造成负债相当高,无可避免的将侵蚀其盈利。
因此,要维持高股息也是很难的。
惟柔佛机构持股达60%,机构投资者更占大多数,因此,股价跌到一个层度,扶盘即出现;再跌深的话,大股东可能将它私有化了。
以它目前的价位,和棕油价比较,属于平平无奇,如果有意投资棕油股,有分拆活动的IOI集团(IOICORP)、吉隆甲洞(KLK)或云顶种植(GENP)可能是更好的选择。
新闻背景
1.65亿加码新英棕油20%
居林是在6月20日,献议以1亿6505万英镑(8亿1230万令吉),增持新英棕油有限公司(New Britain Palm Oil)20%股权。
在这项有条件献购建议完成后,居林在这家公司的持股权将提高至近70%,强化纯种植公司的地位。
居林发表文告指出,该公司献议以每股5.50英镑的现金,收购新英棕油的3000万9621股,将当前的48.97%持股比例,提高至68.97%。
新英棕油是一家在伦敦交易所和巴布亚新几内亚的莫士比港交易所双边上市的公司,居林在1996年开始投资在这家公司,并有代表在董事局。
在此有条件部分献购协议下,设有最低接受率的门槛,确保居林最后持股权不会低过50%。
本期驻诊: 陈金阙 专业财务规划师



Tenders for RM25b MRT project early next year?

Source: http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/20130728232545/Article/

LINE 2: Project slated to be a circle line and may ply between Sungai Buloh and Putrajaya, says a source

MASS Rapid Transit Corp Sdn Bhd (MRT Corp) expects to call for tenders for Line 2 of the Klang Valley My Rapid Transit (KVMRT) project, estimated to be worth over RM25 billion, by as early as next year, sources said.

The second line is slated to be a circle line and may ply between Sungai Buloh and Putrajaya, a distance shorter than the 51km-long Line 1 from Sungai Buloh to Kajang.

“Although Line 2 is shorter than Line 1, it may cost more because of land acquisition. The Land Public Transport Commission (Spad) is carrying out a study on Line 2 and Line 3 to finalise the alignment.

“It has not been decided whether Line 2 and Line 3 will be implemented simultaneously or one after the other,” a source with first hand knowledge on the matter told Business Times.

Line 1 is mostly elevated except for an underground portion of 9.5km running through the city centre from Semantan at Jalan Duta to Maluri in Cheras.

MRT Corp chief executive officer Datuk Azhar Abdul Hamid said no date for procurement initiatives has been fixed for Line 2 and Line 3.

“The government has approved Line 2 and Line 3 and Spad is in the process of seeking approval,” he said.

Meanwhile, sources said companies prequalified for Line 1 can bid for Line 2 and Line 3.

“As long as they have been prequalified they can bid for Line 2 and Line 3. New companies can also submit their tenders but they must meet the government’s criteria,” one of them said.Winners for Line 1 were Sunway Bhd, Gadang Holdings Bhd, Mudajaya Corp Bhd, IJM Corp Bhd, Ahmad Zaki Resources Bhd, Naim Engineering Sdn Bhd, UEM Construction Sdn Bhd and Apex Communication Sdn Bhd.

The project delivery partner for Line 1 is MMC-Gamuda Joint Venture Sdn Bhd. The JV had won the RM8.2 billion tunnelling job.

Japan’s Meidensha Corp, Germany’s engineering group Siemens AG and Canada’s Bombardier Inc are the foreign firms involved in Line 1.

As at end of June, MRT Corp had awarded work packages worth RM21 billion for Line 1.

“There is a balance of RM2 billion worth of work packages which will be awarded by yearend,” the source said.

The final Line 1’s value will be out by yearend, when all the 85 contracts are awarded.

Line 1 is expected to be completed in July 2017 whereby the overall construction is estimated to have reached about 18 per cent.

Saturday, July 27, 2013

未入账销售5.3 亿 华阳下半年盈利看涨

Source: http://www.nanyang.com/node/552103?tid=462

(吉隆坡26日讯)尽管华阳(HUAYANG,5062,主板产业股)2014财年首季业绩下跌,但仍符合市场预测,分析员预计该集团可在下半年加快增长步伐,取得更佳盈利表现。
华阳2014财年首季净利按年下跌25%至1230万令吉,但投行认为表现仍符合预测,达证券分析员表示,该公司未入账销售为5亿3000万令吉,他相信盈利表现料能在下半年迎头赶上。
肯纳格投行则表示,首季通常为疲弱季节,因新产品通常会在末季入账。由于目前仍在初步兴建阶段,该公司仍未有重大意义性的收入入账。
该分析员认为,华阳料在2014财年推出超过10亿令吉的新产业,肯纳格投行维持销售预测在6亿1300万令吉。
在全国大选结束后,肯纳格投行相信华阳能加快脚步,未入账销售料在新产品推出后上升,按年增长9%,至5亿3000万令吉,为未来1年提供更佳的获利能力。
达证券预测,在Flexis Soho@One South第四期在下半年带来重大贡献后,该公司毛赚幅将回到35%水平。
送红股提升股票流动
对于华阳建议以3股送1股红股方式,发送6600万股红股,肯纳格投行对这感到正面惊喜,预计这将能提升该股的流动性。
肯纳格投行持续看好作为可负担房屋发展商,并了解该公司并未其合约采取任何“发展商承担利息计划”(DIBS)措施。
他也相信,新房贷期限缩减至35年并不会影响市场需求,因为大众房产市场将持续迎合各种层次买家。
达证券持续维持对该股“买进”投资评级,且维持4.04令吉目标价格不变。
肯纳格投行则维持“超越大市”投资评级和3.17令吉目标价格不变。

Ranhill IPO withdrawn (Update)

Source: http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2013/07/26/Ranhill-Energy-and-Resources-Bhd-IPO-cancelled.aspx

Published: Friday July 26, 2013 MYT 5:37:00 PM
Updated: Saturday July 27, 2013 MYT 2:19:07 PM

Ranhill IPO withdrawn (Update)

KUALA LUMPUR: Ranhill Energy and Resources Bhd's initial public offering (IPO) has been withdrawn and the monies will be refunded to all applicants and investors.
The company's principal adviser Maybank Investment Bank said on Friday the board had decided to rescind the application for the IPO that was submitted to the Securities Commission on Jan 14.
"The board will ensure that all application/placement monies for the IPO will be refunded to all applicants/investors without interest in a timely manner," Maybank IB said.
It added that the Securities Commission (SC) had via its letter dated July 26 taken note of the company's decision, and notified that the regulator's approval granted via its letter dated June 11 had therefore lapsed.
Ranhill Energy said the SC required Ranhill and Maybank IB to ensure that all application/placement monies received from the applicants/investors were duly refunded in a timely and orderly manner.
It also said Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) had agreed to lift the suspension of Perunding Ranhill Worley Sdn Bhd (PRW) and/or any persons connected to it for upstream activities, effective July 25.
PRW is an affiliate of Ranhill.
However, for downstream activities, the suspension as set out in the letter from Petronas dated July 17 remained unchanged.


Coastal Contracts secures RM425m contracts for 7 vessels

Source: http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2013/07/26/Coastal-Contracts-secures-RM425m-contracts-for-7-vessels.aspx

KUALA LUMPUR: Coastal Contracts Bhd has secured orders for seven offshore support vessels (OSVs) with a total value of RM425mil and pushing its sales orders to RM1bil.
It said on Friday the orders were for five anchor handling tug supply ships, a work barge that would be able to accommodate 300 men,  a 85-metre subsea support/maintenance vessel maintenance vessel.
Coastal Contracts said of the seven OSVs, five vessels were sold to new customers from Southeast Asia and Africa, whereas two vessels were sold to regular customers.
It pointed out the subsea support/maintenance vessel was one of its high-end product which was specifically designed to transport liquid cargo and equipment, move men and materials between platforms, and for external fire fighting as well.
"These vessels are scheduled for delivery during 2013 and 2014. The revenue stream from these vessels is expected to contribute positively to the top and bottomline performance of the group for the financial years ending Dec 31, 2013 and Dec 31, 2014.
"As of to date, Coastal Group has approximately RM1bil worth of vessel sales orders awaiting delivery to customers up to 2014," it said.


文艺范儿的香港女股神刘央

Source:

18岁,热爱文学、“骨子里有着文艺范儿”的刘央怀抱着成为诗人的梦想,却误打误撞与金融结缘。03年SARS肆虐,她入市抄底一战成名,旗下基金当年回报率达到近100%。06至07年的大牛市,她又为投资者带来双倍回报。如果人生可以重来,她说还会做基金经理,“因为赚钱的感觉真的很刺激”。



  03年SARS肆虐,刘央入市抄底一战成名。06至07年,她又为投资人赚得两倍收益,赢得“女股神”和“女巴菲特”的光环。

  高中毕业,热爱文学、“骨子里有着文艺范儿”的刘央怀抱着成为诗人的梦想,却误打误撞走进了中央财经大学的校园,从此与金融结缘。93年,她从中信一万多人中脱颖而出,被派去澳洲管理一只封闭式基金,开始了至今长达19年的基金经理生涯。

  03年SARS肆虐,刘央入市抄底一战成名,她的西京中国基金投放当年的回报率就达到了近100%.06至07年,她又为投资人赚得两倍收益,赢得“女股神”和“女巴菲特”的光环。她说,如果再选一次还会做基金经理,还会选择继续赚钱,“因为赚钱的感觉真的很刺激,很有挑战性”。

  误打误撞走上金融路

  刘央出生于书香门第,父亲在出版社工作,母亲则是一名医生。她从小耳濡目染,“就连赚零花钱也是给父亲抄书,抄1万字给10块钱”,从而练就了一手获奖无数的好书法。她说自己小时候对文学特别感兴趣,“十五六岁就把名著都看得差不多了,零花钱全拿去买琼瑶和金庸了”,还发表了不少小说和诗,“骨子里有点文艺范儿,挺小资的那种”。当时她的梦想是能成为文学家或者诗人,“就像北岛和舒婷那样”。

  高考的时候,刘央的第一志愿是北大西语系。当年小语种的招生人数非常少,她的高考成绩虽然上了北大的线,但却没有达到西语系的录取分数线,最后被中央财经大学提走了档案,成为中央财大第一届国际金融专业的学生,就这样误打误撞走上了金融路。

  “那个时候特别失望,要退学重考,还每天窝在被子里带着手电继续看小说。”无奈的父亲带着她去拜访钱学森,钱老给她讲了很多经济的重要性,她才心不甘情不愿地去学校报到,业余时间则继续在学校的报纸上发表诗歌。大一大二两年的基础知识让刘央觉得枯燥又乏味,“还在彷徨的过程中,也不喜欢经济”,但上了大三正式进入国际金融的专业后,她好像突然茅塞顿开,“一下子喜欢上了金融”。

  刘央说,如果重新选择一次,她还会再做基金经理,还会选择继续赚钱,“因为赚钱的感觉真的很刺激,很有挑战性”。在她眼中,一个优秀的基金经理必须符合3个基本条件:首先是要有较高的体能和智商,“因为基金经理是一个特别的,永远都停不下来的工作,这份工作对人是一个不断勇往直前不断提升的过程,就好象是爬山一样。”其次,好的基金经理必须要传达一种正能量,市场每天千变万化,如果基金经理自己的心理素质不够好,就不应该帮别人打理财富。而最重要的是,基金经理要有非常高的道德标准,“每天看大把的钱进进出出,如果没有很高的道德标准,会容易迷失,丧失自己的原则,从而犯下很多愚蠢的错误。”

  虽然资产管理行业复杂,对人的要求也更为综合,但她认为,要成为一名优秀的基金经理并没有一个固定的模式,中国现在有无数的机会可以帮助中国优秀的理财专家成长,未来会有无数的巴菲特出现。她还强调,“每个人在赚钱的这条路上一定要有自己的理念,要执着,千万不能人云亦云”。总的来说,“赚钱就是一个非常非常难的事情,永远赚钱基本不可能”。

  中国人在资产管理界也可以很牛

  2003年3月,SARS肆虐,刘央一家被困在海南喜来登酒店,“当时没有飞机回去,一层楼里就只有我们住”。就在这里,她加入西京后的第一只基金——西京中国基金正式投放市场。到03年底,西京中国基金的回报率已经达到近100%,入市抄底让刘央一战成名。2006年至2007年香港股市两年大牛市,恒生指数由15000点上升至31000点,刘央又为投资人赚得两倍的收益,成为西京的王牌基金经理,而这些成绩也帮她赢得了“女巴菲特”,“女股神”等各种光环,她还被《福布斯》杂志评为“50位亚洲最有权势的女性”之一。

  然而市场瞬息万变,即使是女股神也有被市场牵着鼻子走的时候。08年的金融危机对刘央来说也是一道坎,08年全年她旗下的基金平均下调空间达到30%至50%,是有史以来最差的表现。那年下半年,刘央几乎从公众眼前消失了,她自己回想当时的情景也说,“有半年时间比较消沉,很有挫折感。当时谁也不想见,谁也不想说话,觉得特别烦。我不明白华尔街为什么要把自己恶劣的东西掩盖地那么深,然后把全世界都拉下水。”

  闭门谢客的那段时间,刘央每天埋头写东西,写自己对市场的感悟,“深刻反省市场出了什么事儿”。她说,那段经历帮助她变得更成熟,让她能在今后更加严峻的环境下,也能保持不慌不乱。在刘央眼中,今年的情况比08年更为惨烈,“今年特别乱,很多东西已经超过一般人的逻辑思维和基本的分析报告可以考察的范畴了”。但经过08年的历练,她说自己现在“完全知道发生了什么,变得更顽强,更知道自己应该在什么时候出手,并且知道中国绝对没问题。”

  她透露,手里的资金在年初大概有40亿美金,到现在有5亿美金因为市场的调整而消失了。有媒体批评她的基金表现,称她为“灯神”(指买股票买什么跌什么),但刘央依然很有信心,“是的,我的基金表现现在来说是亏的,但这个游戏会going on(继续下去)。”

  近期以浑水研究(MuddyWaters)为首的境外做空机构集中打击在海外上市的中国民企,引发市场对民企的恐慌情绪,以民企为主要投资对象的刘央也被推上了风口浪尖,而她本人对此却很泰然处之。“我投资民企那么多年,他们做空我的股票一点都不奇怪”。她认为很多民企的基本面仍然很健康,做空机构只是由少数几家账面有问题的企业引导出一个氛围,使得中国的民企成为被打击的目标。

  在这场民企风暴中,刘央对一些制度上的问题提出了一些反思。她认为大股东每次增持公司股票都需要公开,而做空机构持有大量空仓则无需公布,这样的制度并不平等。此外,一些对民企的看法也让她有些许失望,“政策上没有打开,民营企业一直没有得到国家政策应有的支持,香港市场对民企的态度也是人云亦云,被人牵着鼻子走,没有给他们足够的生存地位和空间”。“李嘉诚的公司不是民企吗?李国宝的不是吗?”,她希望市场能多给民企信心,“中国的民营企业现在还处在初级阶段,未来一定会越来越壮大”。

  谈到个人的投资风格,刘央坚持要同时观察宏观层面和公司层面,“要看大市也要看小市”。她非常推崇巴菲特,认为巴菲特很执着,从来不改变自己的金融模式。“他那么有钱,可以请很多空军来帮他做空,但他从来不这么做。他的理论就是最简单的buy low sell high(买低卖高),看一家公司未来3至5年的发展前景。”刘央现在最看好内地的健康医疗行业和电讯互联网行业,认为这些行业里“有分红的公司可以闭着眼睛买了”。

  刘央一直说,自己的职业生涯中有三个贵人。第一个是她先生,第二个是她以前在中信时赏识她并派她去澳洲管理封闭式基金的前中信董事长王军,第三个则是西京创始人之一、将刘央带入西京的PeterIrving.即使现在刘央已经全面接手西京,成为这家声名显赫的老牌英资投资管理公司100%的控股股东,但公司的会议室里仍然摆着PeterIrving的大幅照片。

  当年Peter找到刘央的时候,曾经跟她说过,Oneday,Atlantisisyours.(西京有一天是你的)。“给我画了一饼,描绘了一个特别美好的图案,当时觉得怎么可能呢?我也没有这个野心,只想好好当我的中国基金经理。”但没想到在10年后,这个美好的图案真的实现了,这让刘央觉得肩上有着沉甸甸的责任感,“我一定要把公司做好,不光为了赚钱,而是要打造一个品牌,要证明中国人在资产管理行业也可以很牛,这是我的使命。”

  家庭是强大的后盾

  女巴菲特,女股神,最有权势的女性,这些称号会让人觉得刘央是一个十足的女强人,但她听到女强人的称呼时却哈哈大笑,“我真的是女强人吗?我觉得我一点儿都不强,在家里我很弱,地位全家最低。”刘央有一个幸福的家庭,一个疼她的先生,一儿一女,明年就是她和先生在一起20周年的纪念,“我老公是我事业上最大的贵人,家庭对我来说是巨大的稳定因素和后盾,我真的非常幸运。”她还笑说,如果没有她先生,她肯定就要成为剩女了。

  这个每天都要工作十几个小时的“工作狂”,就连生孩子都是工作到最后一天。生儿子的时候,她一直工作到开始阵痛,才收拾东西去了山顶的教会医院。她还偷偷地把手机带进去,连做破腹产手术的时候都在下单。10年以前的事情,刘央到现在都还记忆犹新,“我还记得当时下的是卖单,华燊燃气,那天把它全卖掉了,特别好玩儿。”

  她坦言,在教育孩子方面先生比她付出地更多,“我老公的原则是,‘子不教,父之过’,这方面我完全没有发言权。”为了更好地平衡工作和家庭上的时间,刘央采取严格的作息时间,提前将与孩子们在一起的时间安排好,也尽量把所有的周末和公众假期都分给孩子。“最近的爱好是和儿子一起打高尔夫球,一打就是几个小时。”虽然尽量多地和孩子们在一起,但忙碌的工作还是限制了她的时间,在某些特殊的时候,孩子们表现出的一点点疏远还是会让她有些失望,但她也能很快想开,“都是有所失有所得吧”。

  在职场上横冲直撞敢打敢拼的刘央,在生活方面却非常传统。她几乎从不购买名牌服饰,只对中式的服装情有独钟,几乎出席所有场合都穿中式服装。她坚持女人在30岁之前就一定要把自己的另一半找到,还认为“女人如果没有孩子就不是一个完美的女人,传宗接代是女人非常神圣的目标”,甚至对自己生孩子的时候选择了剖腹产而不是自然分娩都心存愧疚。

  刘央的一头长卷发也有一个很有意思的故事。她说自己19岁去五台山的时候遇到一个金牙老道士,老道士告诉她,她的头发和别人不一样,是她的财运所在,并告诫她千万不要剪去长发。刘央虽然一直没把老道士的话当回事,但因为先生喜欢她长发,所以19年以来一直保持着同样的长发造型。结果去年她一时兴起将长发剪短之后,公司的投资表现一直不尽如人意,吓得现在办公室里的同事都对她说,“老板你可千万别再剪头发了啊。”

  和所有爱美的女性一样,刘央也喜欢打扮,每次接受媒体专访,她都会化淡雅的妆,戴上精致的假睫毛,“我是比较追求时尚的,希望能过得比较精致的那种人。”或许是遗传,就连10岁的儿子都会评价她的打扮。参加圣诞派对,儿子还会对她说,妈妈你穿这个不行,穿那个好。“很多时候为了儿子也要打扮呀,让儿子能有自豪感”,说这句话的时候,刘央的脸上带着深深的宠溺,这时的她已经不是那个手持千金的女股神,只是千千万万个疼爱孩子的伟大母亲之一。

Friday, July 26, 2013

CapitaLand warns of Singapore market headwinds as profit falls

Source: http://www.theedgesingapore.com/the-daily-edge/business/44838-capitaland-warns-of-singapore-market-headwinds-as-profit-falls.html

CapitaLand, Southeast Asia’s biggest developer, said prices and sales of Singapore residential properties are expected to moderate because of government measures aimed at curbing speculation.

The developer sold 139 residential units in the island- state in the three months ended June 30, 31% fewer than in the same period last year, the company said in a statement through the Singapore stock exchange today. Second-quarter profit fell 0.7% on lower portfolio gains, it said. The shares lost as much as 1.9% and were 1.3% lower at $3.17 as of 9:49 a.m. in Singapore trading.

CapitaLand expects some headwinds for Singapore’s private residential property market in the near term, according to its earnings statement. The Monetary Authority of Singapore introduced a total debt servicing ratio cap of 60% for property loans granted by financial institutions. This is expected to have an impact on residential property sales, CapitaLand said.

“Most developers have been cautious post the latest round of measures,” Vikrant Pandey, a Singapore-based analyst at UOB Kay Hian Pte, said.

Singapore home prices climbed to a record in the second quarter as gains in suburban housing values accelerated, leading to new government measures on property loans at the end of June.

HOUSING BUBBLE
Record home prices amid low interest rates raised concerns of a housing bubble and prompted the government to widen a four- year campaign in January to curb speculation in Asia’s second- most expensive housing market. In January, the government increased stamp duties for homebuyers by 5%age points to 7%age points.

Singapore’s central bank estimates that between 5% and 10% of borrowers have probably over-leveraged on their property purchases with total debt service payment at more than 60% of their income, MAS Managing Director Ravi Menon said on July 23. Low interest rates, growing leverage, and surging property prices pose significant risks to financial stability, he said.

Net income at Singapore-based CapitaLand declined to $383.1 million in the three months ended June 30, from $385.9 million a year earlier. Earnings in the same quarter last year included divestment gains of $81.8 million primarily from the sale of two shopping malls, CapitaLand said. Sales rose 37% to $1.18 billion.

“We will continue to focus on our core markets of Singapore and China to develop homes, offices, shopping malls, serviced residences and mixed developments,” Lim Ming Yan, president and group chief executive officer at CapitaLand, said in the statement.

The developer in June said it acquired a 70% stake in Shanghai Guang Chuan Property Co. for 1.95 billion yuan ($403 million), through which it will develop a mixed-use project, which will include homes, offices and retail space.

Singapore and China accounted for 75.3% of the group’s profit before interest and tax as of June 30, the company said today.

Auto Sector - Back in business ! OVERWEIGHT

Source: http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/amresearch/33583.jsp

- The auto industry staged a much awaited rebound last month: June auto sales increased by 8% MoM to 53,631 units following two consecutive months of sequential contraction. This is in line with our channel checks recently which indicate that bookings have returned in mid-June to be followed by a very strong July.

- As a recap, April TIV fell by 9% while May saw a further 5% decline to 49,634 units. TIV in the prior two months were negatively impacted by market uncertainties regarding the direction of car prices as both competing coalition in the May 2013 general election pledged to reduce car prices. While on a YoY basis TIV is still down 5%, it has significantly narrowed versus the 15% YoY decline in May.

- New launches to sustain 2H recovery: On a YTD basis, TIV stood at 313,418 units (+4% YoY) or if annualised, at 626,836, accounting for 98% of our FY13 forecast of 637K units. New volume model launches in 3Q-4Q13 including the new Grand Livina (circa 1,000-1,500/month) and 3rd gen Toyota Vios (2,400-2,700/month), should provide a strong catalyst in the 2H. The all new Nissan Serena S-Hybrid (launched yesterday) meanwhile, should provide moderate volume increase with targeted 400-500/month sales.

- Perodua saw MoM contraction in June: Our check with management suggests that this was mainly due to a one week scheduled plant shut down. Proton’s launch of the Saga SV (on 15th June, priced from RM33,438) also probably had an impact on Perodua sales given the initial hype. On the contrary, Proton(+19%), Toyota (+23%) and Nissan (+10%) saw strong recovery. Nissan still retains its status as the 2nd largest non-national at 7.4% share (+2.1ppts YoY), behind Toyota (17.5% share, -0.8ppts YoY).

- 2Q13 results could be flattish sequentially: The upcoming 2Q13 results season looks to be quite flattish for the sector given that on QoQ basis, TIV fell by 1.2%, and most of the major listed players saw QoQ sales contraction. Nonetheless, this will be cushioned by the positive impact of an even stronger MYR in 1Q13 (3-months lag impact on earnings). We expect to see improvements for MBM’s 2Q13 results premised on:- (1) A 7% QoQ increase in Perodua sales; (2) A weaker JPY; (3) Improved production from both Proton (+7%) and Perodua (+14%), which is positive for its auto production division (accounts for c.10% of pretax) as this division was negatively impacted in the past four quarters from weak Proton sales.

- Look out for structural catalysts: Announcement of the National Auto Policy could turn out to be a key catalyst for sector growth – specifically, in paving the way for export earnings growth. We see this being realised via two key initiatives i.e. tax incentives and liberalisation, which creates a more competitive cost structure and attracts export volumes for local manufacturers.

- Maintain OVERWEIGHT on autos: TCM (BUY, FV: RM7.50/share) and MBM (BUY (FV: RM4.60/share) remain our top picks. We see both companies (Perodua via MBM) potentially benefitting from upcoming NAP initiatives for energy efficient vehicles.

Source: AmeSecurities

Thursday, July 25, 2013

Unisem Bhd suffered downgrades by several research houses

KUALA LUMPUR (July 25): Unisem Bhd suffered downgrades by several
research houses this morning after it produced another set of
disappointing results and guided that outlook stays challenging.

Yesterday, the company announced that its second quarter to June 2013
(2QFY13) suffered a net loss of RM4.2 million on the back of lower
revenue of RM246.9 million.

MIDF Equity, in a note today, said: “On the back of poor earnings
performance, we are slashing our earnings estimate for FY13 and FY14 by
82.6% and 46.7% respectively to be at the conservative end.

“With the lower earnings forecast, our target price has been reduced to
RM0.62… We expect customer sentiment to remain subdued on the back of
weary global economic conditions.”

It noted all the business segments of Unisem recorded lower sales as
well as lower average selling price (ASP) arising from changes in
product mix.

It expects dividend yield to be “unexciting”, hovering around 2 to 3%,
as the accumulated cash is expected to go to paring down its borrowings.

This morning, Affin Investment Bank also downgraded Unisem to a “sell”
from “add”, with target price cut to RM0.72 per share.

Commenting on Unisem’s reported first half (1H13) core net loss of
RM15.9m (1H12: -RM16.2m) on lower revenue of RM496.7m (-8% yoy), the
research house said:

“On a whole, this was another disappointing set

of results…Moreover, Unisem management in their analyst briefing
yesterday guided that the 3Q13 outlook is challenging…, which could mean
that Unisem would likely remain in the red for the coming quarter, again.

“As a result, we no longer believe that Unisem will be able to
turnaround in FY13… We cut our FY13 earnings from a RM12.7 million core
net profit to a core net loss of -RM7.6 million. We have also cut our
FY14-15 EPS by 39% and 30% respectively.”

Affin IB added that while Unisem’s valuations look attractive, “the
absence of a solid recovery also means that there is very little reason
to own the stock”.

CLIQ 能源能力越大责任越重

Source: http://www.nanyang.com/node/551303?tid=462

下周三,如果没有意外的话,马股市第三只特别用途收购公司(SPAC)———SONA石油将粉墨登场。
这期间,第二只SPAC———CLIQ能源和其凭单波动激烈,一天起伏十巴仙是平常事。
CLIQ能源刚在周一(7月22日)举行了股东大会,带来一好一坏消息。
好消息是,公司已圈定了五个标的计划,目前正进心精密审计。
坏消息,其实也不是坏消息,是公司对何时宣告收购行动守口如瓶,让心急的小股东失望。
不过,董事部有信心在年内呈献给股东抉择,看来好事不远了。
只是,由于还是没有突破性的宣布,一些股东趁机抛售股票,撤回资金转战SONA石油,让其股票和凭单价格在周一跌了5至10巴仙。
不过,CLIQ能源的董事部在股东大会言及一点,如能贯彻始终,倒是让我深深感动。
事缘CLIQ能源上市价为75仙,涉及1送1凭单,散户认购获得100%分配。以今时之股价在70仙以上和凭单在40仙以上(合计最少有1.10令吉),新股认购者已赚了约50%,成绩不俗。
董事部却觉得,公司股价在短期内飙上80仙以上,代表后来的股东看好CLIQ能源会有所作为,这让他们倍感压力,更小心挑选业务,以让后来者也买得物有所值。
董事部肩负重任
如果这不是门面话,董事部应该深深了解电影《蜘蛛人》中的名句:“能力越大,代表责任越重”,是的,如何让所有股东满意,股价随着收购的业务挺升,是董事部肩负的重大责任。
第一只SPAC———大红花石油(HIBICUS),自一年前股价在2.20令吉登顶,就韬光养晦起来,至今停留在1.50令吉左右;其凭单也从约1.40令吉调回95仙左右。
虽然公司尽力扩充业务,做了好一些收购和联营计划,但公司能否再造惊喜,全看钻不钻到石油。
高价买进的股东,可在9月股东大会时延引CLIQ能源董事局上述的话,向管理层施压。
CLIQ能源,做为老二,因为金玉在前(大红花石油上市也是75仙,至今两年,表现不俗,认购者回酬高达300%),必须加把劲才行。
同时,老三也将在一周后横空出世,新股发售反应比CLIQ能源更好,来势汹汹。
听说SPAC的老四也紧锣密鼓在筹备着,领头者名号一出,其旗下的上市公司马上应声而起,让人觉得来头不小。
虽说这油气领域蓬勃发展,大家各取所好,不完全属竞争敌手,但SONA石油和CLIQ能源几乎同期上市,收购的业务好坏和早迟,肯定会影响股价,瑜亮情结一时难免。
到底是CLIQ能源坚守本位,还是SONA石油后来居上,已成为SPAC投资者热烈议论的话题。


Ranhill Energy IPO deferred after Petronas suspends Perunding Ranhill Worley’ licence

Source: http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2013/07/24/Ranhill-Energy-IPO-deferred-after-Petronas-suspends-Perunding-Ranhill-Worley-licence.aspx

KUALA LUMPUR: Ranhill Energy & Resources Bhd's initial public offer (IPO) and listing have been deferred following the suspension of Perunding Ranhill Worley Sdn Bhd's (PRW) licence by Petroliam Nasional Bhd.
Ranhill had on Wednesday confirmed a StarBiz report about Petronas' suspension of PRW's licence.
"The suspension follows Petronas' review in relation to the engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning (EPCC) of topside construction work for the LNG regasification facilities project in Melaka (Regas project).
"The suspension does not affect any ongoing projects that are being undertaken by Ranhill or its subsidiaries," it said.
To recap, PRW had agreed to exclusively appoint Ranhill's 51% owned Ranhill WorleyParsons Sdn Bhd (RWorley) to provide services for all projects awarded to PRW in Malaysia. PRW is not a subsidiary or associate of Ranhill.
The remaining 49% in RWorley is held by WorleyParsons Engineering Pty Ltd -- a subsidiary of WorleyParsons Ltd which is listed on the Australia Stock Exchange.
Ranhill said a significant portion of the revenue from Ranhill's oil and gas business in Malaysia was derived from PRW's projects secured from the Petronas.
In the latest development, PRW had received a letter dated July 17, 2013 from Petronas stating the national oil company had suspended PRW's licence, effective from the date of the letter.
Ranhill said it had on July 18 submitted an appeal to Petronas against the suspension. It is awaiting Petronas's formal response on the appeal.
"The company shall provide an update on the status of the appeal in due course upon the receipt of Petronas' decision on the said appeal," it said.
The IPO involved up to 407 million shares and the listing and quotation of the entire 961.70 million shares on the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia Securities Bhd.
Ranhill assured investors that all the monies were being held held by the placement agents, Maybank Investment Bank Bhd and CIMB Investment Bank Bhd, as well as Malaysian Issuing House Sdn. Bhd.
"In any event, the allotment of the IPO shares to successful applicants as well as the listing of Ranhill has been deferred to a later date. Further details will be announced and necessary disclosures will be made in due course," it said.

Wednesday, July 24, 2013

罗杰斯:买黄金不如投资农业

Source: http://www.zaobao.com.sg/wencui/politic/story20130724-232198

2013年07月24日

英国《金融时报》 伊莱恩•摩尔 报道

著名的美国投资者吉姆•罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)因其有关黄金价格将跌至每盎司900美元的预测吸引了全世界的注意力。他的讲话具有市场影响力不仅仅是由于他深厚的行业历练,还因为两年前这名退休的对冲基金经理(他曾与乔治•索罗斯(George Soros)共同创立量子基金(Quantum Fund))成功地预测到了当时涨至峰值的黄金价格将跌至每盎司1200美元。

他不断地警告称,黄金并不是一种神秘的商品,只有当那些认为黄金价格不会下跌的投资者全部退出市场以后,金价才有可能真正触底。

罗杰斯力图说服投资界认真考察农业领域。他向伊莱恩•摩尔(Elaine Moore)解释了自己为何认为农业在未来几年将成为一大投资收益来源。

问:你为何认为黄金价格将持续下跌?

答:黄金价格已经持续上涨了12年,这对任何一种资产来说都是极其罕见的,因此市场若不出现一次回调的话将会非常反常。

我并不善于找准市场时点,但我预计黄金价格相对于其峰值将下跌50%,也就是说跌至约每盎司900美元的水平。现阶段我并没有卖出黄金,但如果黄金价格下跌或者跌至上述水平,那我希望自己到时能够足够明智地购买更多黄金。

问:为什么黄金会引发如此强烈的关注?

答:我无法告诉你原因何在,但我对此有着切身感受。当我在投资界的活动上发言时,总会有人问起黄金。而我更愿意谈谈农业。

问:关于农业你想谈些什么?

答:我认为农业领域更具获利前景。我认为黄金价格还没有跌至终极低点,但蔗糖价格已经接近底部。蔗糖价格相对于其历史最高水平已经下跌了75%——世界上很少有什么资产的价格跌幅达到了75%。

我认为,农业将成为未来20年中最激动人心的职业发展领域之一。目前美国农民的平均年龄为58岁,韩国则为65岁。农业是一个老龄化的行业,从业者要么临近退休,要么衰老死去。在美国,学习公共关系的人比学习农业的人更多。

目前全球面临着严峻的人口结构及粮食生产问题。如果不做出改变,那么无论支付怎样的高价,我们也买不到粮食。粮食价格必须大幅上涨才能吸引到进行生产所需的劳动力,联合国粮农组织(UN Food and Agriculture Organisation)为使人们认识到这场危机做出了努力。他们已经看到了我所看到的问题。你还需要再知道些什么呢?

人们把粮食涨价的责任归咎于农产品投机者,但问题并不是由他们造成的——问题的根源在于,农产品储备量现已跌至历史低点,虽然近十年来我们的粮食收成不错,但产出跟不上需求的增长。过去如果我们遇到了天气问题,我们尚且有大规模的粮食储备应急。而现在我们既缺乏粮食储备,又缺少种粮的农民。

问:为什么对农业感兴趣的人不多?

答:我们经历了金融行业占主导地位的长周期,随后又经历了制造业人士引领潮流的时期。现在我们正处于一个中间点。

当我还在大学读书的时候(罗杰斯生于1942年),人们习惯于将伦敦金融城以及华尔街称为死水一样的落后地方。现如今,牛津大学(Oxford University)的学生们都想要成立对冲基金。但这个行业的基本状况已经发生了很大变化。世界其他地区的金融与银行业竞争非常激烈,行业内的杠杆水平很高,并且现在每个国家的政府都在严加管束金融业人士。我认为在未来的10年、20年甚至30年中,金融都将是一个糟糕的职业方向。

问:你在二十世纪九十年代晚期创立了罗杰斯国际商品指数(Rogers International Commodity Index),你在农业领域是如何进行投资的呢?

答:我主要购买的是农产品——还有农场。我在澳大利亚、印度尼西亚以及非洲收购公开交易的农场。你也可以投资于拖拉机、肥料以及种子——有很多投资农业领域的途径。

问:目前你还投资于其他哪些领域?

答:除了农业以外,我还关注美元走势,因为未来汇率市场还将出现更多的动荡,而我认为将有很多人大规模买入美元作为避险资产。人民币汇率也将继续走强,还有我之前提过的蔗糖。此外我还购买航空公司的股票,并关注俄罗斯局势,自从1966年以来我对该国一直持悲观态度,但我正在调整自己的这一观点。

问:你对被动投资模式怎么看?

答:大量研究显示,指数化投资的收益高于80%的主动型投资经理。因此被动投资对于绝大多数投资者而言是最佳选择。如果你善于挑选股票,那么你当然可以这么做,但相关研究证据极具说服力地表明,基本上,大多数人都应采用被动投资。

Hunza sees steady recurring income from Gurney Paragon Mall

Source: http://www.thesundaily.my/news/778587

GEORGE TOWN (July 23, 2013): The opening of the Gurney Paragon Mall will enable Hunza Properties Bhd to earn a steady recurring income, says executive chairman, Datuk Khor Teng Tong.

He said Hunza had invested close to RM500 million in the mall, which demonstrates its confidence in the local economy.

"It is also proof that we are in this for the long haul. We are now a real estate investor, investing our retained surpluses into owning and managing assets to earn a steady recurring income," he said at the mall's soft launch here today.

Khor said Hunza expects to generate returns on investment for the Gurney Paragon Mall in eight to 10 years, amid the good take-up rate of 140 tenants with investments of about RM200 million.

Gurney Paragon, the latest shopping landmark for Penangites and tourists, offers premium lifestyle shopping, and houses al-fresco dining areas with leading international retailers built around the restored St Joseph's Novitiate, a heritage building with an unique architecture.

Khor said an integrated development like Gurney Paragon was a great investment in Malaysia to cater for the growing population as well as those climbing the income ladder at a fast pace.

The mall with 700,000 sq ft, provides customers with premium outlets such as SAM's Groceria by homegrown and retail giant Mydin Mohamed Holdings, and new brands in Penang, namely H&M, Sephora, Debenhams, Canali, La Martina and Michael Kors. – Bernama



Nam Cheong bags deals worth US$70.5m for 3 vessels

Source: http://www.thesundaily.my/news/778871

PETALING JAYA (July 24, 2013): Nam Cheong Ltd, the country's largest offshore support vessel builder, has secured sale contracts worth a combined US$70.5 million (RM224 million) for three vessels.

It sold one of the two platform supply vessels (PSVs) to an existing customer, a leading oilfield services company based in Asia. In mid-May this year, this same customer bought four PSVs from Nam Cheong.

The second PSV was sold to a subsidiary of a new customer in Cyprus, EDT Offshore, a well-established offshore marine services company which owns and operates a diverse range of high specification OSVs.

A unit of Perdana Petroleum Bhd bought the accommodation work barge (AWB). The same company bought two AWBs with similar specifications in April this year.

"In just a short span of time, we have secured three contract wins – two from repeat customers and another from a new customer in Cyprus. Our robust sales are indicative of strong industry momentum not only in the region but globally as well," Nam Cheong CEO Leong Seng Keat said in a statement yesterday.

With the latest contract wins, the group's order book now stands at RM1.5 billion.

"Year to date, we have sold a total of 16 vessels compared with seven a year ago. Given the robust industry momentum, we believe that we are on track to surpass our record high of 21 vessel sales achieved last year," said Leong.

The three vessels are being constructed as part of the group's build-to-stock series in two of Nam Cheong's subcontracted yards in China.

Delivery are scheduled between the first and fourth quarter of 2014, and are expected to contribute positively to the group's earnings for the financial years ending 2013 and 2014.

债券天王预测 美最快2016收紧货币

Source: http://www.nanyang.com/node/550967?tid=462

(纽约22日讯)素有“债券天王’之称的格罗斯指出,他预期联储局最快2016年才会收紧货币政策。
美国国债出现近一年来最大的两周涨幅,联储局主席伯南克表示,除非经济情势许可,否则联储局不会缩减其每月的购债规模。
全球最大债券基金公司太平洋投资管理公司(PIMCO)创办人暨共同投资长格罗斯在推特上发文指出,“债券已走出棺材,而且现在还没有到万圣节。伯南克说,跟随政策利率,我们也同意。”
10年期国债殖利率从7月8日达到的年内高点回落,伯南克上周四表示现在判断9月份是否收缩量化宽松力度“言之过早”。



综指虽无法站稳1800点 买进高贝他油气产业建筑股

Source: http://www.nanyang.com/node/550988?tid=462

(吉隆坡22日讯)经过2个多月剧烈波动后,马股今日再突破1800点大关,无奈午盘涨势不继而回跌,不过市场人士看好马股短期内有能力维持涨势,呼吁投资者趁势探寻被低估的高贝他股,特别是油气、产业和建筑领域。
上周五,马股指标富时吉隆坡综合指数临门一脚,未能冲破1800点心理水平,以1797.74点闭市。
本周一开市不久,综指即加足马力冲破心理大关直攀至1803.31点,休市前稍微回软至1799.54点的水平,半天扬1.80点或0.1%。
综指在午盘再度趁势回扬,一度创下1803.31的全日最高点,可是马股后继无力,闭市时报1797.74点,微跌0.06点。
注意落后大市综指股
在全国大选国阵得以守住江山的第二天,综指一度冲上1826.22点的盘中新高,刷新马股新纪录,但当日后劲不足,回调至1800点水平以下,直至近日才攀抵1800点水平。
无论如何,达证券研究主管卡拉德认为,尽管市场仍有套利和波动压力,但综指依旧能维持当前涨势动力,并在年杪时以1885的高点封关。
“我们呼吁投资者能借此上涨周期,趁机找寻被低估的油气、产业和建筑高贝他股,银行领域中也有如联昌国际(CIMB,1023,主板金融股)和艾芬控股(AFFIN,5185,主板金融股)的选择。”
在他看来,亚通(AXIATA,6888,主板贸服股)和明讯(MAXIS,6012,主板贸服股)等落后大市的综指成分股,料也将显现回弹动力。
肯纳格投资研究则在报告中指出,从技术层面来看,综指在本周有能力再试1800点,之后再挑战1826点的阻力点。
“但要注意的是,第三季属于经常性疲弱季度,市场或将经历更剧烈的波动,引发短期的回调现象。”
该行建议,当综指跌至1720点之下时,应“趁低吸纳”;但当综指攀上1810点水平,投资者则可采取“趁高卖出”的举措。
外资续回笼 上周净流入1.68亿
外资过去一周继续回流大马市场,但规模大不如前,分析员重申大部分外资其实仍在场外观望,对大马市场的信心可能随时“泄气”。
外资过去一周透过公开市场买入马股,净外资流入总额达1亿6830万令吉,逊于前周的2亿2250万令吉。
这数额不包括场外交易。
MIDF研究分析员表示,尽管净外资流入额低于前周,但外资在上周二至周五都是马股净买家。
截至上周五(7月19日),外资今年在公开市场净流入马股高达149亿令吉;反观泰国和印尼市场的目前仍处于外资净流出的窘境。
“我们重申我们的看法,即外资对大马市场的乐观态度仍显脆弱。外资其实还在场外观望。外资参与率还是‘一般’水平。”
外资上周的参与率是9亿100万令吉,稍微高于前周的8亿7000万令吉。然而,过去两周的参与率都低于10亿令吉。
分析员指出,马股大部分活动继续由本地资金推动,散户参与率扬升至12亿2000万令吉,创下5周以来最高水平。
散户参与率扬升
此外,本地机构投资者参与率也激增至23亿令吉,高于前周的17亿令吉。
他认为,本地投资者积极参与马股,不代表他们盲目追捧,不过本地投资者确有充裕现金。
分析员表示,全球市场过去一周表现不错,连续4周趋升。新兴市场表现优异,受到市场趁低价吸购,泰国曼谷和印尼雅加达股市扬升2.1%与2.0%。大马富时隆综指上扬0.75%。
此外,全球资金回笼亚洲市场,外资上周在其中7个市场成为净买家,即韩国、台湾、马来西亚、印尼、菲律宾和印度,累积11亿4000万美元(约36亿2520万令吉),优于前周的1亿5000万美元(约4亿7700万令吉)。
“当初因QE3购债规模减少造成的卖压,导致165亿美元(约524亿7000万令吉)退出7个市场。如今市况反映出,其中有8%回归7个市场。”

Tropicana plans to raise up to RM239m

Source: http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/20130724003524/Article/

KUALA LUMPUR: Tropicana Corp Bhd plans to raise between RM198.61 million and RM239.02 million from a private placement. The money will be used for land bank acquisitions, working capital and estimated expenses for the private placement.

The company said the maximum number of placement shares will be 129.2 million new shares, which represent 10 per cent of its enlarged share base. It is expected to be completed by the second half of this year.

再私下配售10% 丽阳机构冀筹2 .39 亿


(吉隆坡23日讯)自换名之后,丽阳机构(TROP,5401,主板产业股)第二度进行私下配售活动,为收购土地集资。
今日,丽阳机构发文告建议,私下配售最高达1亿2920万2300股新股,或占公司缴足资本高达10%比重。
假设配售价定在每股1.85令吉,公司最多可筹得2亿3902万4000令吉,最低则达1亿9860万8000令吉。
丽阳机构表示,进行这项私下配售主要是为了收购土地筹集资本。
该公司在6月28日的股东常年大会取得批准后,随即宣布这项私下配售,反映出公司积极筹集资本,扩展公司规模。
这是公司第二度进行的私下配售计划,第一项计划已在6月5日完成。

Petronas licence suspension is no laughing matter

Source: http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2013/07/24/Petronas-licence.aspx
PETALING JAYA: A subsidiary of Ranhill Energy andResources Bhd has had its Petronas licence suspended indefinitely, putting a snag in the group’s RM753mil initial public offering (IPO) slated for next Wednesday.
According to a document sighted by StarBiz, Perunding Ranhill Worley Sdn Bhd’s (RWorley) licence has been suspended “for an indefinite period” effective July 17.
“The suspension covers both upstream and downstream,” it read.
The document said RWorley “shall not at any time and for any reasons whatsoever be allowed to make any reference to and/or utilise its Petronas licence (whether in whole or part thereof) in any of its future dealings with any party”.
Additionally, RWorley and/or any persons connected to it would no longer qualify or be allowed to participate in any of Petronas’ tenders.
The document went on to say that ongoing tenders which were to be awarded to RWorley would be passed on to the next recommended bidder after negotiations, while existing contracts would continue until they are completed.
“For umbrella contracts, no new work orders shall be issued,” the letter read.
Ranhill Energy has a 51% stake in RWorley, its joint venture with Australia-listed WorleyParsons Ltd, an engineering services firm.
Insiders believe the suspension was linked to work done onPetronas Gas Bhd’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) regasification plant in Malacca.
RWorley won the RM1.07bil job in January 2011 in a consortium with Muhibbah Engineering (M) Bhd. The project involved engineering, procurement, construction, installation and commissioning works.
Industry sources confirmed that the regulators and bankers were looking into whether Ranhill Energy, controlled by Malaysia’s “water baron” Tan Sri Hamdan Mohamad, was in breach of any disclosure rules related to the licence suspension.
The IPO was billed as Ranhill Energy’s comeback after it was privatised in 2011 at 90 sen a share, or RM538mil.
The listing – which saw the emergence of big-name cornerstone investors such as Lembaga Tabung Haji,Eastspring Investments BhdHwang Investment Management Bhd and Corston Smith Asset Management Bhd – drew attention because of its lucrative water concession in Johor, bankers said.
Ranhill Energy has an exclusive licence from the Energy, Green Technology and Water Ministry to provide source-to-tap water supply services to end-consumers in Johor.
The firm also intended to pay out 60% of its net profit as dividends in 2014, translating into a yield of 5%, Hamdan had said at the launch of its prospectus earlier this month.
He could not be reached for comment at press time. Book building for the IPO, which was oversubscribed, closed on July 15 for institutional investors and July 11 for retailers.
Close to half of the group’s turnover comes from its environment segment, which also comprises water and wastewater operations in China. Its oil and gas (O&G) business is No. 2, making up 37% of revenue.
Maybank Investment Bank is the principal adviser for the share sale and joint global coordinator, bookrunner, managing underwriter and underwriter, together with CIMB Investment Bank.
The IPO of 407 million shares priced Ranhill Energy at the top of its indicated range at RM1.85 apiece.
The company had noted in its prospectus that its “recent experience in leading a consortium of the country’s first LNG regas terminal provides valuable lessons to improve this method of contracting in the O&G industry in Malaysia. We plan to secure such further contracts based on our track record such as the Zawtika Development Project in Myanmar and the alliance contract for the Malacca LNG regas unit”.
Ranhill Energy also said it aimed to pursue future O&G jobs with Petronas such as marginal fields, enhanced oil recovery, the Refinery and Petrochemical Integrated Development in Johor, as well as the construction of more LNG terminals in Peninsular Malaysia.