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Tuesday, April 30, 2013

#GE13 Highlight* Nothing for Investors to Fear

Source: http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=237485&Itemid=79


Malaysians go to the polls on May 5 and we’ll soon know the outcome of
the most closely fought general elections ever.

But no matter what the outcome, should it matter to investors?

Some analysts and fund managers that Personal Money spoke to do not
think it should matter greatly from an investment standpoint, whether it
is incumbent Barisan Nasional (BN) that returns to power or Pakatan
Rakyat (PR) that takes over, becoming the first opposition coalition
ever to helm the Malaysian government.

“Our view is that it doesn’t really matter which side wins. Ultimately,
both sides will be pro-business. It’s just a matter of how soon the
winning party can get its act together.

“What we don’t want to see is a hung parliament [which occurs if neither
coalition has an absolute majority of seats in Parliament] as there will
be prolonged uncertainty over who takes over the federal government and
this would affect businesses,” says Choo Swee Kee, executive director at
fund management firm TA Investment Management Bhd, which handles about
RM700 million across various asset classes.

Lim Chee Sing, executive director and head of research at RHB Research
Institute Sdn Bhd, says the election outcome shouldn’t matter to
investors who take a long-term investment view.  “It only matters if you
are taking a trading view, when you have short-term focus and the [daily
events] can affect sentiment.”

A BN win will mean a continuation of policies and an expected
follow-through on plans and projects outlined under the Economic
Transformation Programme (ETP), which was launched in late 2010 with the
aim of transforming Malaysia into a high-income nation by 2020.

This means there is more certainty that multi-billion ringgit projects —
such as the Mass Rapid Transit linking Sungai Buloh and Kajang in the
Klang Valley, work on which has already begun, or the controversial RM60
billion refinery and petrochemical integrated development project by
national oil firm Petronas in Johor — will continue as planned.


This would help remove any uncertainties and worries that investors and
businesses may have had about things like potential policy changes
affecting ongoing plans to spur the economy.

Hence, a win by BN will likely lead to a relief rally in markets after
the election result is announced, fund managers say. Bear in mind that
there has been a lot of cash on the sidelines waiting to be invested
once all these election uncertainties and risks are removed, they point out.

However, fund managers were also quick to point out that a PR win
wouldn’t necessarily be bad for investors either.

“It’s a chance for the Opposition to address the areas of concern that
investors and businesses may have that BN hasn’t addressed at all, or
enough of, and if PR can get their act together fast enough, this could
be something positive for investors,” observes the head of retail funds
at a local investment bank who declined to be named due to the sensitive
nature of the topic.

Analysts and fund managers generally concur that if the Opposition were
to gain control, there is likely to be a knee-jerk reaction, with
markets suffering temporarily amid a short period of uncertainty.

The Opposition would need to move quickly to assure investors of its
policy direction and any changes it wants effected so investors have a
degree of comfort that it can be “business as usual” even under a new
leadership.

“While the sentiment for change is very strong, there’s also fear of
uncertainty.  There will be a knee-jerk reaction in markets simply
because of fears of potential changes in policy direction and sanctity
of contracts.

But once the outlook gets clearer, markets will rebound. Bear in mind,
any sell-off should be seen as an opportunity for investors to buy as,
don’t forget, all this is happening amid a backdrop of an improving
global economy. The election is just a ‘localised’ factor,” RHB’s Lim
advises.

Some analysts, however, do think that the outcome of the election should
matter to investors.

“It’s a matter of different policies. Let’s say the Opposition came into
power and were to scrap some projects that they don’t think are
feasible. It could affect the companies that are involved in those
projects,” observes Lee Cheng Hooi, head of retail research at Maybank
Investment Bank Bhd.

Depending on which coalition wins, it could also affect the cost of
doing business as each side has different views on things like reform on
tax structures and electricity tariffs. This has led to some companies
putting off certain plans until after the election is over. “That’s
created a drag on certain industries,” says Lee.

RHB’s Lim believes that of all the asset classes, including fixed income
instruments and cash, equities stand to give investors the highest
return amid all the uncertainty.

“Markets hate uncertainty, so as soon as investors get some certainty on
who wins and there’s a clearer outlook, the money will come pouring in
as there are a lot of investors waiting on the sidelines. I think it’ll
be a swift rally,” says Gerald Ambrose, managing director of fund
management firm Aberdeen Asset Management Sdn Bhd.

He notes that foreign funds have been more bullish than local funds on
Malaysian equities, having been net buyers for the last four months and
helping propel the FBM KLCI to new highs even after the dissolution of
parliament and the date of the polls was announced. Volumes on sovereign
bonds too rose above average following the election date announcement,
while the ringgit strengthened.

“The way the markets are being well-supported, it would seem like
they’re pricing in a BN victory,” observes Maybank’s Lee.

Investors should consider stocks in the consumer sector, such as food
and beverage or cigarette companies, as these are deemed to be
“apolitical”, he adds.

Foreign funds hold a high portion of  Malaysian government securities —
they held a record 43.4% of the bonds as at the end of last year,
attracted by a relatively high yield gap and a steady ringgit — but
analysts don’t think there’ll be a massive sell-off even if there were
to be a change of government. “We don’t think there’ll be a major
upheaval, [so] there shouldn’t be panic,” says Choo. 

有望標獲HUC工程‧達洋具重估潛能

Source: http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/74133


(吉隆坡29日訊)達洋企業(DAYANG,5141,主板貿服組)作為泛馬計劃(Pan Malaysia)維修與岸外裝配和營運工程(HUC)強力競爭者,興業認為該股深具重估潛能,未來兩年盈利料取得強勢雙位數成長。
兩年盈利
料雙位數成長
不過,市場傳出國家石油重新檢討多項大型計劃的競標程序,可能推遲泛馬計劃的進度,達洋企業恐怕也會受到牽連。
達洋股價近期走勢強勁,創下5年前上市至今新高紀錄。不過今日卻受賣壓衝擊,一度下跌5仙至3令吉53仙,截至下午3時,達洋股價報3令吉55仙,跌3仙。
興業表示,達洋企業是總值80億至100億令吉得泛馬計劃工程的強力候選人,該發展項目預料不久後公佈HUC競標結果,雖然達洋能否得標仍然不得而知,惟相信該公司可攫取至少20億令吉工程。
興業說,由於達洋可選擇向子公司柏達納石油(PERDANA,7108,主板貿服組)租用工作船,因此有充足產能接受潛在龐大合約,接受新合約可能導致該公司淨賺幅萎縮,主要因該公司需提昇營運開支應付新訂單,惟柏達納石油貢獻提昇料抵銷部份影響。
“達洋目前以預估本益比的2倍標準差交易,相信只要訂單攫取量超越預期,該股將迎來重估,達洋每攫取1億令吉額外訂單,2014年盈利預估將上調14.3%。"
達洋資產負債表強穩,淨現金企於8千610萬令吉,該公司自2010年至今保持高於50%派息率,依此推算,今年和明年週息率分別為3.2%和4.2%。
考量種種因素後,興業研究決定調整財務預估模式和部份預估,估計達洋今年和明年分別錄取17.6%和31.2%成長,並上調目標價至4令吉30仙,給予“買進"評級。(星洲日報/財經)



挺民聯引賣壓?速柏瑪一度跌3%

Source: http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/74119

(吉隆坡29日訊)公開力挺反對黨引賣壓?在速柏瑪(SUPERMX,7106,主板工業產品組)執行主席兼董事經理拿督斯里鄭金森上週五表態支持反對黨之後,該股今日一度直挫7仙或3.4%。

頂級手套獲熱捧

相比下,至於另一隻手套股頂級手套(TOPGLOV,7113,主板工業產品組)則獲投資者熱捧,股價漲幅居全場之冠。

速柏瑪則在開盤後不久便跌破2令吉關口,滑落至1令吉99仙,過後逐步收窄跌幅,早盤結束時報2令吉3仙,共下跌5仙或2.40%,半日共有603萬股易手。

上週五外電報導,鄭金森直言本屆全國大選將會改變過去的投票趨向,首次支持反對黨。這也是首位華人企業家在本屆大選期間公開批評國陣和力挺民聯。

短期情緒反應

分析員指出,市場賣壓或只是短期情緒反應,手套股前景依然唱好。

根據交易所的資料,雇員公積金局(EPF)近期不斷減持速柏瑪股票,並在4月18日脫售速柏瑪300萬股股票,不再是該公司大股東。該股當日滑落5仙至2令吉8仙。

此外,退休基金局在4月19日賣出頂級手套100萬股股票,不再是其大股東。該股當日跌38仙至6令吉45仙。

頂級手套今早開市時挂6令吉20,過後便在買盤推動下節節上漲,最高報6令吉47仙,早盤結束時挂6令吉43仙,上漲28仙或4.55%,名列全場最大漲幅股。成交量則有62萬股。

手套股前景看好

興業研究今日發表報告指出,頂級手套將是乳膠價疲軟和H7N9禽流感疫情的主要受惠者。此外,該公司未來兩年擴張丁腈手套產能,將令賺幅增強和進一步邁向成為全球最大的丁腈手套商。

該行在上週保持增持手套股的建議,對頂級手套和速柏瑪都給予買進評級,目標價分別提高至7令吉11仙(之前為6令吉42仙)和3令吉30仙(之前為2令吉68仙)。

速柏瑪為全球第三大醫療手套製造商,大馬研究在3月中調低該股評級至守住,目標價為2令吉15仙,因該股未來兩年須付較高稅率。


Monday, April 29, 2013

生命中美好的事


Supermax hit after owner said he supports PR

Source: http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=237382&Itemid=79

KUALA LUMPUR (April 29): Shares of SUPERMAX CORPORATION BHD [] were sold
down today after its major and controlling shareholder openly stated that he supports the opposition alliance Pakatan Raykat (PR).

But TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD [], its main competitor which produces largely similar range of rubber gloves, became one of the top gainers today.

“My clients are selling Supermax as they believe Supermax will lose contracts to supply medical gloves to government hospitals if Barisan Nasional retains power,” said a senior dealer.

“We think Supermax’s losses may be gained by Top Glove. While my clients respect Thai for his bravery to say what we dare not say, we have to protect our own investments,” he added.

At 4.11 pm, Top Glove – the world’s biggest producer of rubber gloves – soared 31 sen or 5% to RM6.45 per unit on trades of 1.59 million shares.

It was still the top gainer in late trades.

But Supermax fell 8 sen or 4% to RM2.00, on 7.8 million shares. The latter was one of the most active and top losers in morning trades.

Stanley Thai, in an interview with Bloomberg, said he is joining thousands of fellow ethnic Chinese citizens in “abandoning support for Prime Minister Najib Razak and voting for the opposition for the first time in the May 5 general elections.”

“Why are the Chinese against the government -- it’s simple,” Thai, 53, said in an interview last month, which was posted on Bloomberg last Friday. Local newspapers carried the report over the weekend.

“We don’t want our children to suffer what we suffered, deprived from education, from career opportunities, from business opportunities,” Thai said.

Supermax, according to Bloomberg report, is the country’s third-largest medical glove-maker, now exports 24 billion gloves a year.

“We have been brainwashed from Day 1,” Thai was quoted as saying. “We were born and bred with fear and threats by our own government.”

In recent years, Thai has been hitting out the government on its policy with regards to the rubber glove sector. He is also seen expanding his manufacturing plants overseas, to as far as South America.

Saturday, April 27, 2013

无论谁将主王朝 建筑股选后续领风骚

Source: http://www.nanyang.com/node/528760?tid=462


(吉隆坡26日讯)分析员指出,不管本届大选的结果是什么,建筑领域都不会是绝对的输家,因此整体给予“中和”评级。
在评估我国两大阵营竞选宣言对建筑领域的冲击时,分析员发现,两者之间不尽然都是大相径庭的,当中还是有相似之处。
在分析员看来,国阵若继续掌权,将确保经济转型执行方案(ETP)连续推行,并为建筑领域带来上修的机会。
相反的,若民联接手政权,预见会强力推动公开招标,惟建筑领域可能会经历短期的评级调降。
安联研究分析员表示,随着第13届全国大选将在5月5日举办,他们根据两大阵营竞选宣言中所建议的政策,来评估对建筑领域的冲击。
但分析员强调,此研究仅探讨不同政策对建筑领域和相关股项的冲击。他们无意评论该政策的对与错,也不会预测谁将在大选后组织新政府。
两方宣言部分相似
总结两方跟建筑领域相关的政策,国阵提出建造可负担房屋、扩充铁路网络、打造更多道路和高速公路、净化水源和美化河道。
民联则主张提高东马的发展、缓和交通阻塞、设立教育机构、建造可负担房屋、净化水源和把就业机会从外国人转移至国人手中。
“有趣的是,我们发现两个竞选宣言不尽然是大相径庭的,例如在建造可负担房屋、于东马打造连接沙巴与砂拉越的高速公路、缓和交通阻塞及提出隆新高铁的建议。”
主要的不同,是民联强调有必要重新检视某些现有政策和工程计划,包括某些水坝、重新检视炼油与石油化工综合发展计划(RAPID)、检讨捷运工程(MRT)合约、解散一个马来西亚发展有限公司(1MDB)和废除大道收费站。
假设国阵继续执政,分析员认为,经济转型执行方案中多个重大工程可继续推进,包括捷运2、3线、西马半岛南部双线铁路、西海岸高速大道(WCE)和莎阿南轻快铁延长线等,预期都将在大选后推动。


今年工程总值缓至180亿
根据这个前提,分析员预期今年国内工程合约颁发总值将达180亿令吉,比去年的279亿令吉低。
“目前,富时吉隆坡建筑指数处于中值水平,但我们相信大选后,若国阵继续执政,该领域将获得重估机会,因为不稳定因素已移除。”
另一方面,若民联接管执政权,也将会推行槟城疏通交通计划(工程价值60亿令吉),及雪州水坝提升计划(工程价值10亿令吉)。
分析员认为,现有进行中的计划,如捷运计划和依斯干达特区都将继续。
“假设民联获胜,我们预期将会强力推动公开招标系统,相信竞标价格将获得高水平的审核。届时,直接谈判合约的方式将面临淘汰。”
分析员也指,对于民联执政的“不稳定”观点,将导致股市短期内下滑。
无论如何,对于在月前被调降评级并跑输大市的建筑领域,分析员维持“中和”评级。
首选金务大 依华建台
在大选过后,分析员分别以金务大(Gamuda,5398,主板建筑股)和依华建台(Sendai,5205,主板建筑股)为首选股。
安联研究分析员表示,假设国阵继续执政,大型股将多数获得立即上修的机会。
小型股偏好金轮
“在这样的情况下,我们则选金务大为首选股,因为它是直接参与捷运工程的公司,以及在脱售水务业务后或迎来特别股息。”
至于小型股,则偏好金轮企业(Kimlun,5171,主板建筑股),因该公司将受益于持续在依斯干达的发展项目。
若民联接管执政权,分析员预期股市将面临短期下滑。届时,当指数下滑至低于中值一个标准差之后,才建议投资者入场。
“到时若非要买入建筑股,那我们建议依华建台,因该公司订单有高达70%是在海外。”

Friday, April 26, 2013

Unisem results reflect volatile semiconductor sector outlook

Source: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2013/4/26/business/13026063&sec=business

KUALA LUMPUR: Unisem (M) Bhd’s latest quarterly earnings reflect the volatile outlook for the semiconductor industry, which appears far from a full-fledged recovery, market consensus shows.

Analysts at Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd believe that the near-term outlook for local technology companies could continue to be overshadowed by a sluggish PC demand coupled with the prolonged global economic uncertainties.

“We believe that the industry recovery is likely to be seen only in second half of 2013, underpinned by a recovery in the global chip demand amid better global economic conditions,” they said.

Additionally, the flash HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index for April fell to 50.5 in April from 51.6 in March, but was still stronger than February’s reading of 50.4.

Alliance Research analyst Angeline Chin feels that the company’s management was now more pessimistic of its outlook than previously guided.

She said while earnings recovery was still on the cards, management sounds to be a bit more cautious on revenue guidance.

“Given the continued weak global economy, we believe Unisem will come under further selling pressure in the near-term. The situation is exacerbated by intensified pricing pressures from more sophisticated buyers,” Chin said.

The research house downgraded Unisem from “trading buy” to “neutral” given the limited near-term earnings growth prospects.

Investments risks in Unisem includes slower than expected global economic growth, weakening of the US dollar, rising cost of raw materials and overcapacity.

Chin said Unisem’s retrenchment exercise was still ongoing.

“The group’s workforce has been trimmed by 24% to 7,976 employees from the peak of 10,471 in mid-2011,” she said. Unisem narrowed its net loss to RM9.7mil in the first quarter ended March 31 against a net loss of RM13.5mil posted a year ago. Its revenue was lower at RM249.7mil from RM256.6mil last year due to reduced sales volume. The semiconductor manufacturer expects business to remain challenging for the rest of the financial year.

Affin Investment Bank analyst Kevin Low said the only positive from Unisem’s first quarter results was the improved earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) margins of 12.4% versus 12% a year ago, despite a 2.7% year-on-year decline in revenue.

“This is largely attributed to a more favourable product mix, cost savings initiatives which included a headcount reduction. The lower revenue year-on-year was largely due to softer demand coupled with the exit of certain customers, as a result of management’s strategy to discontinue older and less profitable products,” he said in a report.

He said global economic growth remains frail and will likely continue to remain an overcast factor on the sector. Meanwhile, the structural slowdown in PC sales will also likely limit a strong recovery as nearly 17% of Unisem’s revenue is tied to the sector.

CIMB Investment Bank Bhd research head Terence Wong said the company’s management had guided for 3-5% revenue growth in second quarter financial year 2013, but declined to say if it would be a profitable quarter.

He said management now assumed a smaller loss quarter-on-quarter in second quarter, adding that Unisem expects second quarter to see the full impact of its average selling price increase since January this year, and demand to start picking up, even if order visibility was still poor.

“However, we gather that the improvements in Ebitda margins would slow down. Management also guided that the company will be in cash conservation mode for financial year 2013. We expect a 2 sen per share dividend for financial year 2013, equivalent to a 2.3% yield.

“For financial year 2013, we expect the weakness from the PC and consumer electronics segment to be cushioned by smartphones and tablets,” he said.




Thursday, April 25, 2013

PINTARAS JAYA BHD - secured another contract at RM36 million.


Thursday, April 25, 2013

KUALA LUMPUR (April 25): PINTARAS JAYA BHD [], a CONSTRUCTION [] and
engineering firm, has secured another contract for the year, this time
valued at RM36 million.

In a filing to Bursa Malaysia, the firm said its wholly owned subsidiary
Pintaras Geotechnics Sdn Bhd had received a letter of award from Permata
Cermat Sdn Bhd to undertake earthworks, piling works and retaining walls
for a proposed condominium project in Mont’ Kiara.

The said works, said Pintaras Jaya, is set to begin on April 30, 2013
and has a completion period of 13 months.

“The said contract is expected to contribute positively to Pintaras Jaya
group’s future earnings,” the firm commented.

Less than two weeks ago, Pintaras Jaya announced it had received a
RM20.6 million from Mudajaya Corporation Bhd for bored piling works
related to the Mass Rapid Transit project.

All in, Pintaras Jaya has announced four contract wins this year, with a
cumulative value of RM133.56 million.

Daibochi - posted its highest quarterly net profit of RM7.1 million for the first quarter


KUALA LUMPUR (April 25): Daibochi Plastic and Packaging Industry Bhd
posted its highest quarterly net profit of RM7.1 million for the first
quarter ended 31 March 2013 (1Q13), a jump of 39.4% year-on-year.

In a press release, the company said its 1Q13 group revenue increased
6.7% to RM73.4 million, versus RM68.8 million previously, largely due to
increased sales in its packaging business.

On the back of its 1Q13 results, Daibochi is declaring a first interim
dividend of 4.0 sen per share, to be distributed to shareholders on 7
June 2013.

Thomas Lim, managing director, said: “Daibochi’s 1Q13 performance is
significant as it attests to our successful strategy in creating a
favourable product mix in our flexible packaging division.”

Lim is buoyant on the group’s prospects in the current financial year as
he anticipates a significant increase in export sales in 2013 on sales
orders from new multinational customers.

“The packaging industry is expecting an uptrend in raw material prices
in the second quarter of 2013. Nevertheless, we are hopeful that our
larger revenue base and improving productivity will help us to soften
the impact of higher costs,” he said.

“With this, we believe that the group is poised for another record year
in revenue and net profit performance,” added Lim.

销售强劲营业额高 恒大置地净利增28%

Source: http://www.nanyang.com/node/528105?tid=462


(吉隆坡24日讯)随着在进行中项目的销售表现强劲及取得较高营业额,这让恒大置地(Tambun,5191,主板产业股)2013财年截至3月31日首季,净利按年增加28.03%至1172万6000令吉,高于上财年的915万9000令吉。
首季营业额则从上财年的6598万7000令吉,按年上升18.70%,至7832万4000令吉。
恒大置地的营业额走高的动力,主要来自集团的代表性综合市镇发展计划Pearl City,占集团营业额接近66%。
恒大置地董事经理郑克生表示,集团将在2013财年剩余的9个月内,推出发展总值为2亿5660万令吉发展计划,这将让集团在槟城产业市场中取得增长机会。
持续扩大地库
“我们也预计,发展总值为19亿令吉在Pearl City,将在2014至2020年间推出,这将让集团从槟城市场中至长期正面展望中获益,尤其是在威省(Seberang Prai)南部地区。
此外,这让集团必须持续扩大地库。目前,他们在槟城大陆的北部、中及南部地区寻购新的土地,并希望可在年秒时完成部分交易。



Tambun Indah net profit up

Source: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2013/4/25/business/13022286&sec=business

KUALA LUMPUR: Tambun Indah Land Bhd’s net profit rose to RM11.7mil in the first quarter ended March 31, against RM9.15mil in the same period a year ago on the back of higher sales.

Its revenue for the quarter grew 18.7% to RM78.3mil from RM66mil a year ago. Its earnings per share, meanwhile, stood at 3.77 sen in the first quarter.

“The favourable increase in the revenues in the current quarter was contributed mainly by the property development segment, which recorded an increase of RM12.7mil or 19.8% in revenue compared to the preceding corresponding quarter,” the company said in the notes accompanying its financial results.




Is there another factor other than cholesterol and triglycerides causing heart attacks?

Source: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2013/4/25/business/20130425081148&sec=business

HEART-ATTACK-STROKE-MICROBE NEW YORK: Thousands of heart attack victims every year have none of the notorious risk factors before their crisis - not high cholesterol, not unhealthy triglycerides.

Now the search for the mystery culprits has turned up some surprising suspects: the trillions of bacteria and other microbes living in the human gut.

In a study released on Wednesday, scientists discovered that some of the bugs turn lecithin - a nutrient in egg yolks, liver, beef, pork and wheat germ - into an artery-clogging compound called TMAO. They also found that blood levels of TMAO predict heart attack, stroke or death, and do so "independent of other risk factors," said Dr Stanley Hazen, chairman of cellular and molecular medicine at the Cleveland Clinic's Lerner Research Institute, who led the study.

That suggests a TMAO test could enter the arsenal of blood tests that signal possible cardiovascular problems ahead. "TMAO might identify people who are at risk (for heart attacks and strokes) despite having no other risk factors," Hazen said.

The discovery also suggests a new approach to preventing these cardiovascular events: altering gut bacteria so they churn out less TMAO.

The study joins a growing list of findings that link human "microbiota" - microbes in the gut, nose and genital tract, and on the skin - to health and disease. Research has shown that certain species of gut bacteria protect against asthma, for instance, while others affect the risk of obesity. Last week scientists reported that circumcision alters bacteria in the penis, and that this change (not only the anatomical one) helps protect men from HIV/AIDS, probably by reducing the number of bacteria that live in oxygen-free environments such as under the foreskin.

"It's very strong work," Dr Martin Blaser of New York University Langone Medical Center, a pioneer in studies of the microbiota, said of the TMAO study. "They show clearly that human microbiota play a key role in producing TMAO, suggesting new approaches to prevention and treatment" of cardiovascular disease.

NORMAL CHOLESTEROL, FATAL HEART ATTACK

The new study builds on a 2011 discovery by the Cleveland Clinic team that, in lab mice, gut bacteria turn lecithin in food into TMAO, or trimethylamine-N-oxide, causing heart disease. In addition, they found, people with high levels of TMAO are more likely to have heart disease.

But that research left two questions hanging: Do human gut bacteria trigger the lecithin-to-TMAO alchemy, like those in mice? And do high levels of TMAO predict heart attacks and stroke in people many years out, not simply mark the presence of cardiovascular disease at the time of the blood test?

To answer the first question, Hazen and his colleagues had 40 healthy adults eat two hard-boiled eggs, which contain lots of lecithin. Just as in lab mice, TMAO levels in the blood rose. After a week of broad-spectrum antibiotics, however, the volunteers' TMAO levels barely budged after they ate eggs, the researchers reported in the New England Journal of Medicine.

"That showed that the intestinal bacteria (which antibiotics kill) are essential for forming TMAO," said Hazen.

Next, to see whether TMAO predicts cardiovascular events, the researchers measured its levels in 4,007 heart patients. After accounting for such risk factors as age and a past heart attack, they found that high levels of TMAO were predictive of heart attack, stroke and death over the three years that the patients were followed.

Moreover, TMAO predicted risk more accurately than triglyceride or cholesterol levels, Hazen said. And it did so in people without substantial coronary artery disease or dangerous lipid levels as well as in sicker patients.

Specifically, people in the top 25 percent of TMAO levels had 2.5 times the risk of a heart attack or stroke compared to people in the bottom quartile.

The reason TMAO is so potent is that it makes blood cholesterol build up on artery walls, causing atherosclerosis (hardening of the arteries) and, if the buildup ruptures and blocks an artery, stroke or heart attack.

Earlier this month, the Cleveland Clinic researchers reported that gut bugs also transform carnitine, a nutrient found in red meat and dairy products, into TMAO, at least in meat eaters. Vegetarians made much less TMAO even when eating carnitine as part of the study, suggesting that avoiding meat reduces the gut bacteria that turn carnitine into TMAO, while regular helpings of dead animals encourages their growth and thus the production of TMAO.

More studies are needed to show whether TMAO reliably predicts cardiovascular crises, and does so better than other blood tests. Experts disagree on how many people have no other risk factors but would be flagged by TMAO. Dr Gordon Tomaselli, chief of cardiology at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine and past president of the American Heart Association, guesses it is less than 10 percent or so of the people who eventually have heart crises.

Someone with high levels of TMAO could reduce her cardiovascular risk by eating fewer egg yolks and less beef and pork. But someone with a two-eggs-a-day habit but low TMAO probably has gut microbes that aren't very adept at converting lecithin to TMAO, meaning she can eat eggs and the like without risking a coronary.

Just as statins control unhealthy cholesterol, prebiotics (compounds that nurture "healthy" gut microbes) or probiotics (the good bugs themselves) might control unhealthy TMAO. For now, however, no one knows which prebiotics or probiotics might do that. In one study, probiotics actually increased TMAO-producing bacteria - "not what you want," Hazen said.

Neither will popping antibiotics work: bacteria become resistant to the drugs. Developing compounds that crimp the ability of the bacteria to turn lecithin into TMAO, Hazen said, is more likely to succeed. - Reuters

Tiger’s Singapore unit to drive performance: OCBC

Source: http://www.theedgesingapore.com/the-daily-edge/business/43597-tigers-singapore-unit-to-drive-performance-ocbc.html

Australian regulators’ approval of Tiger Airways’ (J7X.SG) sale of 60% of Tiger Australia to Virgin Australia (VAH.AU) means the Singapore unit’s performance will no longer be overshadowed, says OCBC. “Investors can now look to Tiger Singapore as the main growth driver for the group.”

It notes the Singapore unit posted “impressive” fiscal-9M13 revenue growth of 30.7% on-year to $444 million on passenger load-factor improvements, with fiscal-4Q13 continuing to show encouraging operating statistics. OCBC expects Tiger Australia’s losses to continue, although the group will take a lower 40% proportion, while Tiger’s other associate, SEAir, remains in its infancy and operating losses could still hit Tiger’s books near-term. “Despite the risk of a drag on performance by its associates, we continue to stand by our assertion that Tiger’s turnaround is ongoing.

Low-cost carriers, such as Tiger, will continue to benefit from improvements in emerging Asia affluence and corresponding increases in consumer demand from a value/cost standpoint.” It keeps a Buy call but cuts its fair value to $0.79 from $0.86 on its recent rights and PCCS issuance. The stock is up 0.7% at $0.69, extending Tuesday’s 4.6% gain.




Wednesday, April 24, 2013

The Better Part of Valor — and Your Trading System — is Discretion

Source: http://www.martinkronicle.com/home/

There are many misconceptions about creating a mechanized trading system. Some feel that mechanized systems are better than discretionary systems as if they give a trader an edge. I think this may be true for those traders just starting out. However, I personally know many discretionary traders that have done just fine without systems. The key is to do what’s best for you. Allocators will give money to traders who can perform. Lastly, discretionary trading is a form of a system unto itself. More on this in another post.

I tend to see those traders who wish to become CTAs going the mechanized system route and those that are endeavoring to become prop traders go the discretionary route. What separates them is either years of experience and normally a focus on one instrument or sector.

Overall, I believe that it’s a great idea for a new trader to get to know and build systems from scratch with a simulator such as Trading Blox, for example, to get a very intimate understanding of all the moving parts that involve a trade: volatility, volume, price action, trends, and large counter-trend moves to name a few.

What’s lost on most most new traders is how their emotional intelligence is a major factor on their mechanized trading rules. Hint: they’re there whether you know it or not.

For example, if you are a risk taker in life, you’ll find that your personality type is manifest in your ultimate trading system. If you tend to be methodical and “slow and steady,” you’ll find that your approach to your mechanized trading rules is the same. If you don’t trust yourself, you won’t trust your system no matter how long you spend putting it together. If you have self-doubt, your rules will likely be the perfect system for generating tons of indecision and self-doubt.

Ultimately, all the decisions you make in creating your trading system are discretionary. That includes how much to risk per trade, positions sizes, entries, exits, and what instruments to trade. To say it in writing, there are no rules in creating your trading rules. That’s where your intelligence, emotional constitution, sense of self-awareness, and emotional intelligence all come together. I think the best traders are strong in all of these areas. Wisdom in these areas does not come easy. After I’d completed a great deal of what some of you are about to endeavor, I STILL needed to get my head handed to me. I documented a great deal of what I needed to live through in my book.

You are using your judgement and are weighing the tradeoffs between parameters and hypothetical outcomes to see which “feel” best. Feel here is emotional not intellectual, ie, “I’m scared and fearful about my long gold position,” not “I’m bullish or bearish on gold.” How you feel will affect your behavior and your behavior determines and predicts where you end up in life.

You can set up a system to be geared for triple-digit returns or for fractions of percentage points per month. You get to make those decisions, and as such, your system like all others has a discretionary element. But know this: if you swing for the fences, you’ll have to live with large drawdowns (realized and unrealized losses). You determine the calibration of these tradeoffs — and that is discretionary. Keep in mind, small hypothetical gains go with smaller drawdowns of shorter duration, and large hypothetical gains go with larger drawdowns of longer duration.

Discretion Two Times: Creating the rules and then following the rules.

Creating the rules is discretionary. Following them can be mechanical. The key is how much of your rules capture how you feel in the NOW-NOW and later-NOW. And that’s hard because there are those of us who believe that the future (the later-NOW) doesn’t exist: all we have is the ever-evolving moment of NOW, the NOW-NOW. Knowing how your feel later-NOW is hard to predict. But you’re likely to have an emotional system that you’ve been running for years, and as such, you might be able to get a sense how you’ll behave in the later-NOW because you’ve been doing it for years. That’s where self-knowledge is absolutely key.

[Your emotional system has the part that you're aware of and the other part that you either don't want to look at, or is subconscious and you're not aware of it. That's where a men's group or a Trading Tribe can do wonders for you. For me, I have always put my money where my Tribe is: I was a member of the IVTT for 2 years (while living in LA) and I also concurrently ran the LA Tribe. That means I had a Tribe meeting every week for 2 years.]

What makes your system completely mechanized comes down to your ability to follow the rules alongside your emotional system. At best, the two have converged or at least are running parallel as your grow both intellectually about using Trading Blox, for example, as well as learning a great deal about yourself.

Discretion can appear after you’ve built out your trading rules, even with the help of a simulator. You can get a signal to enter or offset a trade and not follow it. Over-riding your rules here is discretionary. You may not have a signal from your system, but have a bona-fide hunch about an instrument and you affect a trade outside your systematic rules and put it on. That too is discretionary.

Neither use of discretion at this point are bad, evil, or wrong. You get to determine the rules and how you want to stick to them. They are your rules and they are personal. No one can tell you what’s best for you other than you. Even if you look to Bill Dunn – a fully systematic trader – you can have an element of discretion in your trading.

Coastal bags RM434m deal

Source: http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/20130424005920/Article/

KUALA LUMPUR: Coastal Contracts Bhd has secured contracts for the sale of nine offshore vessels worth about RM434 million, raising its total sales order to RM720 million.

It is selling seven units of offshore support vessels and two units of oil barges. “Including the new contracts, Coastal has about RM720 million worth of vessels sales orders up to 2014,” it noted.

Higher fair value for glove makers

Source: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2013/4/24/business/13015325&sec=business


Reasons include positive sentiment owing to falling latex prices and H7N9 impact
PETALING JAYA: The fair value for a couple of glove companies has been raised amid a positive industry sentiment owing to falling latex prices and additional demand for gloves as a result of the H7N9 outbreak in China.
RHB Research in a report said it had rolled forward its valuation base year to 2014 from 2013.
“Consequently, our fair value for Top Glove Corp Bhd and Supermax Corp Bhd has been raised to RM7.11 (from RM6.42 ) and RM3.30 (from RM2.68), based on unchanged target price earnings ratio of 15.5 times and 13 times respectively,” it said.
While the research outfit believes it is still too early to determine the potential impact of the outbreak, further deterioration of the situation could result in a pickup in demand for gloves, particularly in the natural rubber gloves segment as latex gloves are more commonly used in emerging countries such as China, it said.
“Should the situation deteriorate and prolong, we believe Top Glove and Supermax would benefit most from any surge in demand due to their spare capacity (average utilisation rate of 75% and 80% respectively),” it noted.
Moving forward, it said demand growth for gloves would continue to remain resilient as it was still the “most basic” and affordable form of protection against viruses and disease outbreaks.
Furthermore, with latex prices softening in the near term (below RM6 per kg against an all-time high of close to RM11 in 2011) and the possibility of the H7N9 outbreak developing into a pandemic, sentiment towards the glove sector should remain positive over the next quarter, it said.
HwangDBS Vickers Research concurred that Top Glove appeared poised for an unexpected demand surge given its low utilisation rate (70%) and stronghold in the “entry level” powder latex gloves market.
Hartalega Holdings Bhd and Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd, both with average utilisation rates of 90%, would also benefit given their new capacities that are coming on stream progressively.
“But it would take three to six months before any visibility in volume growth can be seen (based on the H1N1 experience). If that happens, valuations could be re-rated,” it said.

It will be 12 months before Petronas can relaunch takeover offer for MISC

Source: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2013/4/24/business/13016366&sec=business


PETALING JAYA: It would be 12 months before Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) can launch a new takeover offer for MISC Bhd and not six months as previously reported. This is according to Section 34 of the Malaysian Code on Take-Overs and Mergers (2010).
Petronas' failed takeover of MISC had resulted in its share price dipping below the RM5.50 buyout price. After shedding 73 sen on Monday, MISC's shares managed to stage a mild rebound, up six sen to RM4.63 in active trade after the selldown on Monday seemed to have eased.
However, trading in the stock subsequently eased and its price dipped by three sen yesterday to close at RM4.54.
Investors were still considering if the stock was a good buy at this price, said one dealer.
Analysts have expressed mixed views on whether MISC shares were a good buy at these prices.

Tiger Airways rises on regulator approval

Source: http://www.theedgesingapore.com/the-daily-edge/business/43576-tiger-airways-rises-on-regulator-approval.html

Shares of Singapore’s Tiger Airways Holdings rose to their highest in more than three months after Australia’s competition regulator approved a deal between the budget carrier’s Australian unit and Virgin Australia Holdings.

Tiger Airways shares jumped as much as 12% to $0.735 on Tuesday, their highest since Jan. 18. Some 10.7 million shares were traded, 7.4 times the average full-day volume over the past 30 days.

Virgin, Australia’s No.2 carrier, had in October announced plans to buy 60% of Tiger Australia for A$35 million ($44.5 million) and invest a further A$62.5 million to increase the fleet size to 35 aircraft from 11 by 2018.

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission said it had decided not to oppose the deal on the basis that Tiger Australia was unlikely to remain in the local market without the Virgin investment.

"With this approval in place, Tiger Airways can now look forward to commencing discussions with Virgin on its plans to grow Tiger Australia, and enable it to compete more effectively in the Australia’s budget carrier space," DBS Vickers said.

UOB Kay Hian said Tiger Australia will take over some of Tiger Airways’ fleet delivery and thus free it from capital constraints.

Tiger Airways is now free to focus on growing its business out of Singapore and its associates in Indonesia and the Philippines, the broker added.




Nam Cheong sells two vessels worth $73mil

Source: http://www.theedgesingapore.com/the-daily-edge/business/43582-nam-cheong-sells-two-vessels-worth-73mil.html

Nam Cheong, Malaysia’s largest Offshore Support Vessel (OSV) builder, announced that it has sold two vessels worth a total of US$59 million ($73.2 million).

Two Accommodation Work Barges (AWBs) were sold to a subsidiary of Perdana Petroleum Berhad , an established, major offshore marine services provider for the oil and gas industry in Malaysia and the Southeast Asian region. The barges are 100 metres long and can accommodate 300 men. Each is also equipped with an eight-point mooring system and a 300-tonne crane.

Leong Seng Keat, Nam Cheong’s Executive Director, said: “Perdana has been a valued, blue-chip customer of Nam Cheong for the past seven years. As a major offshore marine player in Malaysia, Perdana stands to benefit from positive industry developments that would include the Pan-Malaysian Hookup and Commissioning works, an umbrella package worth a total of RM8 billion to RM10 billion ($3.2 to $4.1 billion). We are pleased that our established relationship with Perdana is helping to boost our order book and we are thrilled to be riding on strong industry momentum with them.”

The two vessels are of American Bureau of Shipping (ABS) class and are being constructed as part of the group’s build-to-stock series in one of its subcontracted yards in China. They are scheduled for delivery during the first half of 2014.

Nam Cheong’s order book hits RM1.4 billion with this latest win.




投資內在美

Source: http://www.mpfinance.com/htm/finance/20130424/columnist/en56_en56.htm

古希臘哲學家亞里士多德指出,「人生最終的價值在於覺醒和思考的能力,而不只在於生存」。結果並不是一切,反而在達到目標的過程中,所培養出素質及得更為重要,筆者以下簡述數項對成功至為重要的個人素質。


承擔──勇於扛下責任和後果

承擔是一種態度,是一種勇氣,勇於扛下責任和後果的勇氣。成功是一連串失敗經驗的累積,做人要勇於承擔責任,肯付出、肯嘗試,才能學得更多,有更大的機會成功。想培養承擔重任的力量,首先要從自我認識、自我訓練做起,尤其不能逃避自己的短處和缺點,能夠勇於面對及承認自己的缺點的人,才會思索去改進和克服,才會有進步的機會。

堅持──是一種信念和意志力

堅持是一種信念,是一種意志力,一場持久戰,一顆無論遇到任何困難就不放棄的心,在逆流中向前,頂壓力向上,不輕言放棄、不言敗的態度。堅持,並非忍耐,不再原地踏步,不無奈地等待,是以把希望變成現實的目標,把所有困難克服的意志力。要耐得住寂寞,耐得住誘惑,更需要有無比的毅力,

就如學如逆水行舟的道理,停下腳步就等於退步,我們所處的環境事物、人性的安逸怠惰無不時時刻刻挑戰我們。然而,成功的背後除了時間的考驗,更考驗我們的心性。堅持,亦需要有明確的目標與不斷的自我激勵,堅持再堅持,成功才會向你微笑!若然缺乏堅持,稍稍遇到困難及挫折便放棄的話,成功只會離你愈來愈遠。

發揮潛能 認識自己長短處

每個人都有獨特的優點和缺點,長處和短處,想要成功,首先需認識自己長處和短處。從認識自己的內在特質開始,循序漸進地改變不適當的自我印象,培養解決問題的能力、創造力、自信心,激發蘊含在心的驚人潛能。能夠發揮所長,坐言起行,自然效果倍增,增加成功的機會。

有一句英文名言,「只有敢於走得太遠的人,才會發現自己能走多遠」(Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go – T.S. Eliot)。人往往有壓力下,能發揮更大的潛能,遇強愈強,進而克服困境、掌握心想事成的秘訣。

堅持到最後 才有機會嘗成功喜悅

成功非僥倖,能成功的人,往往比別人付出想像不到的努力和時間,經歷不為人知的失敗與挫折,堅持到最後的人,才有機會一嘗成功的喜悅。因此,大家不妨先培養內在美,為成功啟航。

◆Tips:

1. 成功需要有排除萬難的決心

2. 抱終生學習的心態

3. 別計較付出多少,付出更多,才能得更多

張佩儀

美國萬利理財控股有限公司亞太區總裁

Tuesday, April 23, 2013

兩陣宣言拼派錢‧陳鼎武:選後經濟恐更糟

Source: http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/73607

(吉隆坡19日訊)資本投資(ICAP,5108,主板封閉式基金組)董事經理陳鼎武以“在數以億元計的直接和間接選舉活動和承諾後,大馬經濟可能依然如故,甚至可能變得更糟",來形容大馬選後經濟的困境。

他在接受《星洲財經》專訪時直言,無論誰執政,都應致力解決大馬根本的經濟問題――大馬正失去效率和生產力而沒有競爭力,然而,讓人遺憾的是,兩黨對這卻隻字未提,令大馬長期經濟展望堪憂。

“國家會否破產是另一問題,若兩大政黨都沒有正視經濟的基本面,這將是大馬經濟的長期困境。"

他在粗略看過兩黨的宣言後坦言,大馬經濟需要明確的經濟改革,惟國陣和反對黨的宣言大同小異,僅專注短視的經濟糖果,皆未重視人力資源衰退、教育惡化的現象。

“所以,儘管全球經濟復甦,大馬經濟成長也令人刮目相看,但在沒有可期的經濟政策下,大馬未來的經濟依然不樂觀。"

他對大馬長期經濟展望保持謹慎。

根據資本投資的經濟報告,相對其他東盟國家,大馬的經濟成長每況愈下,因歷屆首相的漠視,大馬2001至2010年間的平均經濟成長,已自1991至2000年間的經濟成長7.2%,急挫至4.6%。

反觀,即使印尼在1997年受亞洲金融危機的打擊遠較大馬深,近年卻異軍突起,就連在2001至2010年期間面臨政治動盪和水患的泰國,同樣取得穩健成長。

此外,大馬在80和90年代,製造領域一直主導經濟成長,但該領域卻遭“挖空"並迅速滑落,這源自於數原因,惟結構問題恐怕是主因。

大馬在1991至2000的平均出口成長達16.9%,但在2001至2010年期間,卻已急降至6.1%,同期間的印尼和新加坡反而“步步高升"。

他表示,大馬是個開放的經濟體,出口佔經濟成長和發展的絕大部份,可是,相對印尼、泰國和新加坡,大馬這10年的出口成長卻每況愈下。

“這是為何,大馬政府應嚴正和由衷地看待這些問題,瞭解經濟成長受困的禍首,而新政府也有必要在大選後採取正確的解決方案,落實有效政策來解決難題。"

未正視經濟根本問題

大馬過去的經濟強勁,是因為政府擁有勇氣和能力去追求長遠且正確的社會經濟政策,也選擇遠離為取悅選民的社會經濟政策,惟目前兩黨都沒有這樣的願景。

陳鼎武坦言,大馬缺乏競爭力的問題一直存在,之所以難以解決,歸咎於改善經濟基本面的政策可能對國民帶來短期創傷,在執政黨擔心失去選票下,唯有不斷派發“短暫"的現金糖。

“若加強競爭力和生產力,大馬經濟成長將達7至8%,屆時,大馬就無需再受困於中等收入的瓶頸,這才是大馬亮麗的經濟願景。"

他認為,若兩黨沒有勇氣解決經濟的基本問題,製造業將持續敗退,一旦失去穩健的製造業,就難以支撐大馬經濟。

“可惜的是,大選已模糊了許多處理經濟基本問題的焦點,大馬也有太多`白蟻’在侵蝕大馬經濟。"



依賴服務業
方向錯誤

大馬致力自製造業轉向服務業是錯誤的方向,因為製造業具備提高附加價值的潛力,也是多國經濟體抬頭的動力。

“為何印度和中國的經濟規模不相上下,印度的經濟表現卻顯著落後中國?原因是印度依賴的是服務業,中國靠的製造業!"陳鼎武一語道出製造業的舉足輕重。

陳鼎武分享,新加坡一直以來依賴製造業來讓經濟突圍,德國能夠在歐元區中一枝獨秀,也因其有能力輸出具附加價值的產品,只是,大馬看來選擇和印度走同樣的路,依賴更多服務,而非製造業,去創造經濟碩果。

“經濟發展將影響大馬長期陷困的製造業,關鍵不在於領域,而是大馬能否創造高附加價值的產品。"

他不諱言,目前服務佔大馬國內生產總值高達55%,製造領域僅25%,是一個重大錯誤,也是西班牙、意大利、希臘、愛爾蘭、葡萄牙多年前犯下的“錯誤",唯恐對經濟帶來長期惡果。

在陳鼎武的眼中,製造業如此重要,因為該領域鼓勵生產力、效率和創新,那是服務業很難達到的目標,也對經濟發展尤其重要。

此外,製造領域也較農業和低技術服務,提高較高薪酬和大規模的就業機會。

淪為“外勞國"素質低落

政府即使發展服務領域也應非常謹慎,宜專注發展高附加價值兼低勞力密集的服務業。

陳鼎武分析,服務業同樣可分為低附加價值、勞力密集和高附加價值、低勞力密集兩種,發展並提昇前者容易,但大馬需要的是,第二類的服務業。

他舉例,政府可以設立更多酒店、餐廳和零售商店,但這些都是人力密集型、附加價值低,並需要低技術的服務業,若大馬選擇走這簡易的捷徑,只會淪為“外勞國"、經濟成長和發展的素質低落、服務出口微不足道。



選後資金流向存隱憂

若政治動盪浮出台面,目前蜂擁而至的外資恐倉皇而逃,本地投資者也恐對國家前景迷茫,導致大選後的馬股如“驚弓之鳥"。

陳鼎武坦言,他從不擔心選舉前的馬股,而是選舉後的馬股,預見的最壞情況是,大馬出現更多政治不明朗的問號。

“到時,別說海外投資者,即使本地投資者都會被嚇跑,馬股勢必受創。"

他按歷來大選分析馬股,1969年的情況最糟糕,1998年則是第二糟,如果是2008年的情景,其實還不足以引起崩盤疑慮。

“若重演308的政治海嘯,馬股頂多在兩週內猛挫後再重返正軌,關鍵在於目前藏在政治台底下的暗潮洶湧。"對於外資近期大舉流入馬股,他似乎有所保留,反問若你是管理數百萬美元資產的外資,何不等待在大選後才下注?

“若情況很糟,即使游資充沛,外資仍有很多投資選項,可以隨時轉向新加坡或香港等投資市場。"

其實,在2007或2008年以前,大馬深受外資歡迎,也是外資最青睞的市場之一,當時,印尼和菲律賓反而未引起外資興趣,只是,大馬在亞洲金融風暴後採取了資本管制,導致外資迄今仍未強勁“回巢"。

隨著馬股可能需等待大選塵埃落定後才有更明確的方向,陳鼎武並未調整馬股2千點的長期目標。

製造業才具長期動能

大馬多年來雖強調積極多元化出口,惟佔國內生產總值主要部份的製造領域已不斷失去優勢和出口動力,因此,新政府應致力維持大馬製造領域的出口表現。

陳鼎武說,大馬除了手套業能夠在全球製造業佔一席之地外,基本上具附加價值的出口產品不多,那是製造領域的結構問題,對整體經濟的影響已長期被忽略。

不過,要確保大馬製造領域的出口表現持續,仍面臨兩大挑戰――全球經濟展望不明朗打擊出口表現和其他區域製造產品的競爭。

他解釋,全球經濟步履蹣跚,出口(尤其先進經濟體)的需求料缺乏動力,外圍需求放緩的風險或影響大馬出口,特別是依賴這些經濟體的工業。

第二,數大型新興經濟體(尤其亞洲)的製造產品在全球市場的競爭加劇,特別是低成本兼人力密集的製造產品。

“這些趨勢料挑戰大馬出口的競爭力,當中也潛存另一問題,大馬的產品出口領先,服務出口卻失色。"

他說,大馬要讓服務出口對經濟發展扮演有意義的角色雖仍有漫長的路,但強化大馬公司邁向附加價值更高的活動,並多元化出口種類是迫切的方向,而穩健和令人信服的開始是必要的。

應效法韓國發執照

他認為,政府不妨鼓勵和提供津貼給大馬公司以採取第一步,事實上,一些大馬銀行和零售公司已開始朝這個方向發展,但大馬需要更多這樣的公司和一個“模範生"。

陳鼎武認為,大馬政府應該向韓國政府學習,予公司任何執照的同時,也規定這些公司擁有特定出口,以確保經濟回饋。

“大馬政府給予企業大道專利權、獨立發電廠執照時,何不也限定這些公司的出口能力,以讓他們能夠以另一種形式來回饋大馬經濟。"

他以業務呈“負成長"的國產車――普騰(Proton)為例,若有一天普騰能夠像韓國的現代(Hyundai)汽車般衝出海外,就能以附加價值創造更多經濟效益。

“顯然,大馬需要一個具生產力和競爭力的普騰!"

他說,韓國公司皆被當地政府“強迫"出口,以致韓國產品能夠在世界殺出一條血路。

綜指股無吸引力

向來主導“價值投資"的陳鼎武坦言,富時大馬30大成份股都不是他目前的“心水股",因為這些股皆欠缺吸引力。

“身為價值投資者,這30大成份股對我來說,皆沒有吸引力。"

他坦言,這也是為何他保留資金逾一年,以等待更好的進場機會。

他也提到,馬股接下來是牛市還是熊市,胥視選舉後的情況,因此,建議投資者保持觀望。他以本身為例,現階段已逐步減持股票,並增加現金比重。

然而,無論經濟高低起伏,國家是否面臨大選,對陳鼎武而言,價值投資乃是不敗的策略。

他以1993年的牛市和1985年的熊市為例,價值投資助投資者在股市看漲時,避免財富受損,並在股市唱淡時保持獲利。

高收入國=1%人擁大財富?

在陳鼎武眼中,若政府無法改革經濟,在2020年前邁向高收入國的目標並沒有太大意義,因為那可能是少數人的收入增加,多數人仍在低收入中掙扎。

“那只是數字遊戲,高收入國,可以是1%的人擁有大部份的財富,但其他人依然在水深火熱中。"


Monday, April 22, 2013

5 Reasons Not to Buy Gold

Source: http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704372504578289922761002366.html#articleTabs_article%3D1

Hulbert on Markets | THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 7, 2013

Conventional wisdom is that gold is an inflation hedge and a safe haven, but a new study finds otherwise.

Humphrey Neill, the father of contrarian analysis, famously wrote that "when everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong."

That's a sobering thought when it comes to gold, since the belief in gold's investment virtues seems to be almost universal.

For this column I am taking Neill's advice to heart, with help from a new study published by the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Mass. "The Golden Dilemma," by Claude Erb, a former commodities portfolio manager for Trust Company of the West, and Campbell Harvey, a finance professor at Duke University, calls the conventional wisdom into question.

I should stress that the study's authors are not predisposed against gold. For example, Erb told me, he frequently bought and held gold for the commodities portfolio he used to manage. Here's a summary of the study's findings:

Gold as inflation hedge

This is perhaps the most widely held belief about gold, and the one that the study's authors devote the most energy to analyzing. They found that gold does not live up to the widely held belief that gold's price in real terms remains more or less constant.

Over any of the time periods assumed by investors — from the short term to as long as 20 years — gold's real price has fluctuated wildly. Interestingly, Erb and Prof. Harvey told me in separate interviews that this finding holds regardless of how inflation is defined — whether it's based on government data, or the shadow statistics some think are more accurate, or monetary inflation as measured by money supply.

Gold as currency hedge

This is a close variant of the "gold as inflation hedge" argument. And it fares no better.

For example, the researchers found that the price of gold — both nominal and adjusted for inflation — in each of the three dozen countries studied tends to fluctuate more or less in unison. Currency fluctuations explain relatively little of the price change.

Gold as hedge against hyperinflation

This also is a close variant of the "gold as inflation hedge" argument. But it's worth discussing separately, since it's possible that even though gold does a disappointing job of hedging lower levels of inflation, it does a good job hedging against hyperinflation.

Unfortunately, the researchers find much to be desired on this front, too. Take what happened in Brazil between 1980 and 2000, for example, when — according to the International Monetary Fund — inflation averaged 250% per year. Over this two-decade period, according to the researchers' calculations, gold's price in inflation-adjusted terms dropped 70%.

What's more, this calculation relied on the official government statistics. If we make the reasonable assumption that those statistics understate the true extent of the inflation, the drop in gold's real price over this period would have been even greater.


Gold as a safe haven

Another widely held argument in favor of gold is that it hedges against the breakdown of geopolitical order. Thankfully, we don't have many opportunities to test this thesis, but the researchers find reason to question it.

For example, when the researchers focused on those occasions over the last three decades in which the financial markets suffered their worst returns, they found that gold's performance was more or less evenly divided between gains and losses.

Gold as hedge against low real interest rates

This is yet another widely held argument in gold's favor. And it certainly appears to be based solidly in the data. In the late 1990s in the U.S., for example, when real interest rates were high, gold's price was low. And in recent years, with real interest rates low, gold's price has been high.

Yet data from other countries paint a different picture. In the United Kingdom over the last three decades, for example, there is a very low correlation between gold's price and real interest rates — explaining only 9% of the change in the price of gold.

Conclusion

Are these arguments the final word on the subject? Of course not. The impulse behind contrarian analysis is not to close down debate but to pose hard questions. And, I think it's fair to say, many of us have not subjected our pro-gold arguments to rigorous historical scrutiny.

The researchers believe that there are other factors, beyond the standard ones that they investigate, that have a big impact on gold's price. It behooves investors to at least acknowledge that those other factors will greatly affect their returns over the short, intermediate and even longer terms.

One of the counterarguments that the gold bulls make is that gold's price has been manipulated and that, therefore, all analyses such as the researchers' are fundamentally flawed. One ancillary implication is that, because it is assumed that all such efforts at manipulation will ultimately fail, gold's virtues eventually manifest themselves over the very long term.

Interestingly, the researchers don't necessarily disagree. For example, they found that, over the very long term, gold does indeed appear to maintain its purchasing power. But, the researchers are quick to add, this tendency emerges in the data only when the holding period is measured over very long periods indeed — not years or decades, but over centuries.

So it's all well and good to buy the shiny metal because of its ability to hold its value over the very, very long term. But, the researchers find, you shouldn't use that argument to justify shorter-term expectations for gold, since it may be only your distant heirs several generations hence who will reap the rewards.

Gold’s fair value is $800 an ounce

Source: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/golds-fair-value-is-800-an-ounce-2013-04-16


Mark Hulbert
April 16, 2013, 8:30 a.m. EDT






Gold’s fair value is $800 an ounce

Commentary: What price is justified by gold’s fundamentals?
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Gold’s bear market is just beginning.

That’s the depressing assessment from Claude Erb, a former commodities portfolio manager for Trust Company of the West, and co-author — with Campbell Harvey, a Duke University university finance professor — of an academic study from last June that is looking to be increasingly prophetic.

Gold prices plummet, but not at jewelry stores

Gold prices may be down more than 20% since 2011, but those looking to wear the precious metal rather than invest in it won’t find a similar decline at the jewelry counter.

In that study, the authors calculate that gold’s fair value is close to $800 an ounce. Though many of gold’s true believers were inclined to dismiss such a bearish projection when their study came out, it’s beginning to be taken a lot more seriously: Bullion’s recent slaughter has eliminated more than 40% of what a year ago they concluded was bullion’s overvaluation — including $240 over the last week alone.

These developments prompted me to check in with them to see if these recent developments had in anyway softened their bearish assessment.

No such luck.

On the contrary, Erb told me Monday morning, he thinks it is unrealistic to expect gold’s decline “to play itself out very quickly.” Referring to the five stages of grief that were made famous by Elisabeth Kubler-Ross, he believes the gold market right now is just in the first stage: denial.

The next four stages, for those of you who need reminding, are anger, bargaining, depression and, finally, acceptance.

As evidence of many gold investors being in denial, Erb referred to the large number of institutional investors and hedge fund managers who continue to own substantial gold positions. The “Denialists are like those in 2007 who thought real estate would go up forever, or Jim Glassman’s famous book at the top of the Internet Bubble projecting DJIA 36,000.”

Erb continued that these institutional investors and hedge-fund managers in coming days will have a lot of explaining to do with clients for why they didn’t anticipate gold’s plunge — and to convince those clients in any case why they should continue to invest in gold.

If those investors and managers lose the faith and decide to sell, and even if they don’t but if their clients do, then a huge amount of additional selling pressure will hit the gold market.



For a fuller discussion of the hard questions that Erb and Harvey ask about gold, read my early-February Barron’s column about their research. But to come up with an estimate of gold’s fair value, they calculate a ratio of gold to inflation going back as far as they were able to obtain data. They report that this ratio, when expressed in terms of the U.S. Consumer Price Index, has averaged about 3.2-to-1. Even at $1,400 an ounce, this ratio stands at 6.03-to-1, or nearly double this average.

And don’t be too quick to dismiss the awful implications of their research. You might not agree with it, but the authors don’t ignore the possibility that the under-reporting of actual inflation justifies a much higher gold price. They also respond to the argument that factors such as currency fluctuations automatically translate into a gold bull market. Finally, it’s not the case that they are biased against gold; Erb told me that he frequently invested in gold when he was a commodities fund manager. (Click here to read their full study.)

Erb said that gold’s recent plunge is the all-too-predictable result of an asset whose price has become disconnected from fundamental value. While he allowed that gold could very well stage a powerful rally from here, he predicted that its final bear-market low will be a lot lower than where it stands today. After all, every time in history in which gold’s price has deviated significantly from fair value — as he and Prof. Harvey calculate it — it eventually has returned to it.

Click here to learn more about the Hulbert Financial Digest.

Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Chapel Hill, N.C. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980. Follow him on Twitter @MktwHulbert.


大选NAP因素买家观望 4 月汽车销量料回落

Source: http://www.nanyang.com/node/526876?tid=462


(吉隆坡19日讯)大马3月份汽车总销量强力反弹,但全国大选成绩与国家汽车政策(NAP)随后出炉,或导致4月份销售回落,因为潜在买家采取观望的态度。
不过,分析员也指出,近期日元兑令吉走弱,可望抵消销量降低所带来的冲击。
大马3月份汽车总销量暴增至5万7622辆,按月增长28%,按年扬升8%;主要是2月乃周期性低销售月份,而3月工作日较多,业者可按时交货。
至于今年首季,汽车总销量共计15万8000辆,按年增长14%,相等于占马银行投行分析员全年预测63万8000辆的25%。
评级维持增持
按月比较,国产车销量以较慢速度增长,普腾销售涨16%,第二国产车扬11%;外国车销量较显著,丰田销售暴涨70%,丰田增长62%,日产则攀升40%。
分析员预期,适逢第13届全国大选,加上国家汽车政策即将公布,消费者都选择静观其变,所以,4月份汽车销售数字难免回落。
整体上,他维持汽车业“增持”评级。
陈唱摩多业绩亮眼
未来数月的汽车销售可能继续趋低,但分析员相信,日元走弱带动汽车零件成本降低,足以抵消部分影响。
分析员指出,若日元兑令吉汇率每10%差异,陈唱摩多(TChong,4405,主板消费产品股)、MBM资源(MBMR,5983,主板贸服股)和合顺(UMW,4588,主板消费产品股)的净利预测,就出现波动。
他表示,陈唱摩多今年1月,起把15%入口零件转以日元交易,若走势继续比预期水平(即3.22令吉兑100日元)低5%,那陈唱摩多净利将增长约11%。
同时,日元兑令吉每贬值5%,MBM资源每年盈利将增长10至11%;合顺盈利则可扬升2至3%。
整体上,陈唱摩多(TChong,4405,主板消费产品股)销售成绩亮眼,反映出盈利增长潜能良好,但该股估值不高,所以始终是分析员首选汽车股。
另外,铝合金轮圈(alloy wheel)和商用车产量增长,将有望推高MBM资源未来盈利,分析员维持“买进”评级。
同时,他也调升合顺目标价,从12.30令吉提高至13.26令吉,以反映集团旗下油气业务的上涨潜能。