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Tuesday, December 31, 2013

連賺19年‧美景嚴重低估

Source: http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/87825?tid=18

(吉隆坡30日訊)憑產業發展起家並逐漸多元化旗下業務的美景控股(MKH,6114,主板產業組),獲肯納格研究評為“嚴重低估”的股項。

肯納格在研究報告中表示,美景控股是家擁有強勁盈利紀錄的公司,1995年上市至今成功締造連續19年取得正面盈利佳績,不僅旗下可負擔房產發展策略令其有能力保持優勢,種植業務也預料在2014年開始貢獻,擴大業績基礎。

種植業務料開始貢獻

“美景控股旗下產業計劃主要落在加影一帶,且大多是叫價60萬令吉以下的可負擔房產,由於我們認為涉足可負擔房產的發展商能更好地適應目前經濟狀況,因此相信美景控股處在良好的位置。”

此外,美景控股至今已完成在印尼種植1萬4千400公頃的油棕園,其中97%已進入成熟階段,開始生產鮮果串,估計明年鮮果串成長至少達15%,帶動種植業務盈利表現。

截至2013財政年,美景控股核心淨利按年猛漲60%至1億2千300萬令吉,種植業務稅前盈利也從前年500萬令吉,猛漲近4倍至2千400萬令吉。

肯納格研究估計,美景控股綜合估值(SOP)達每股4令吉69仙。

該行補充,美景控股股價過去半年來一直保持在2令吉39仙至2令吉85仙之間水平交易,若未來數日技術圖出現牛勢白燭,股價可能反彈至早前創下的2令吉85仙新高,若突破此水平,3令吉零5仙將是下道目標。

有鑑於此,肯納格將美景控股目標價設在3令吉零5仙,相等於綜合估值的35%折價,或2014年7.1倍本益比,給予“短線買進”評級。(星洲日報/財經‧報道:李三宇)

Japan's mid-tier camera-makers face shakeout with smartphone challenge

Source: http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2013/12/30/Japan-midtier-cameramakers-face-shakeout-with-smartphone-challenge/

Cameras like Panasonic's GM1 camera offer almost SLR-like image quality in a compact package, but they face a big challenge in smartphones which offer instant connectivity with aps for Instagram, Facebook and such.
Cameras like Panasonic's GM1 camera offer almost SLR-like image quality in a compact package, but they face a big challenge in smartphones which offer instant connectivity with aps for Instagram, Facebook and such.
TOKYO: Panasonic Corp and Japan's other mid-tier camera-makers have a battle on their hands to win over a smartphone "selfie" generation to mirrorless cameras that held such promise when they were launched around five years ago.
Panasonic, like peers Fujifilm Holdings and Olympus Corp, has been losing money on its cameras since mobile phones that take high-quality photos ate into the compact camera business.
This year, compact camera sales are likely to fall more than 40% to fewer than 59 million, according to industry researcher IDC.
Meanwhile, sales of mirrorless cameras – seen as a promising format between low-end compacts and high-end single-lens reflex (SLR) cameras – are sputtering as buyers put connectivity above picture quality.
A 40% drop in Panasonic's overall camera sales in April-September left the imaging division vulnerable as the company's mid-term plan to March 2016 demands unprofitable businesses turn themselves around or face the axe.
"If you look mid-to-long term, digital camera makers are slipping and the market is becoming an oligopoly," said Credit Suisse imaging analyst Yu Yoshida.
Panasonic held 3.1% of the camera market in July-September, down from 3.8% a year earlier, according to IDCCanon IncNikon Corp and Sony Corp controlled over 60% between them.
"Only those who have a strong brand and are competitive on price will last – and only Canon, Nikon and Sony fulfil that criteria," added Yoshida.
Canon and Nikon dominate the SLR camera market, while Sony could survive any shakeout thanks to its strength in making sensors for a number of camera manufacturers as well as collaboration with its smartphone division.
SPUTTERING MIRRORLESS
Panasonic, Fujifilm and Olympus are trying to fend off the smartphone threat by cutting compacts, targeting niche markets such as deep-sea diving, and launching the higher-margin mirrorless models.
The mirrorless format promised mid-tier makers an area of growth as the dominance of Canon and Nikon all but shut them out of SLRs, where Sony is a distant third. Neither Panasonic nor Fujifilm makes SLRs, and Olympus stopped developing them this year.
Mirrorless cameras such as Panasonic's Lumix GM eliminate the internal mirrors that optical viewfinders depend on, so users compose images via electronic viewfinders or liquid crystal displays. This allows the camera to be smaller than an SLR, while offering better quality than compacts or smartphones due to larger sensors and interchangeable lenses.
"SLRs are heavy and noisy, whereas mirrorless are small and quiet. While some people say SLRs still have better image quality, mirrorless (cameras) have improved to the point where they're equivalent, if not superior," said Hiroshi Tanaka, director of Fujifilm's optical division.
Critics grumble that LCD screens can never compete with the clarity of an optical viewfinder, and that picture-taking speeds are too slow for fast-action subjects such as sports.
Nevertheless, the mirrorless format has been a hit in Japan since Panasonic launched the first domestically produced model in 2008, the G1. They made up 36% of Japan's interchangeable lens camera shipments in January-October, according toresearcher CIPA.
But the format is yet to catch on in the US and Europe, where shipments made up just 10.5% and 11.2% of all interchangeable camera shipments, respectively, and where consumers tend to equate image quality with size and heft.
Sales, which globally are less than a quarter of those of SLRs, fell by a fifth in the three weeks to Dec 14 in the United States, which included the busy “Black Friday” shopping week, while SLR sales rose 1%, according to NPD, another industry researcher.
"I would focus on the detachable lens market proper, excluding mirrorless, and focus on connectivity," said Ben Arnold, director of imaging analysis at NPD. "How do you bridge that gap between high photo-capture quality and high-quality camera devices and the cloud where every amateur photographer's images live?"
SMARTPHONE COMPROMISE
Panasonic, Olympus and Fujifilm do not yet have a definitive answer.
Consumers don't want to connect cameras to phones, analysts say; they want a single interface that can instantly upload photographs to social networking sites such as Facebook Inc and Twitter Inc.
Sony's compromise is its two QX lenses released this quarter. These come with their own sensors and processors, and clip onto smartphones through which the user operates them wirelessly. They are pocket-sized and produce photographs of a quality rivalling that of a compact camera.
"There was a lot of internal disagreement over the product. It's the kind of product you either love or hate," said Shigeki Ishizuka, president of Sony's digital imaging business.
But Sony appears to have connected with consumers as demand soon outstripped production. Some are even using the lenses in a way Sony didn't intend: placed at a distance while they press the shutter on their smartphone to take self-portraits, or selfies.
"We had no idea how much the QX would sell initially when we put it out. We didn't set any targets," said Ishizuka.
It is little surprise Sony was the camera-maker to break the mould as it is the only one to also have a profitable smartphone division.
"There are so many consumers that were hungry for Sony to do this," said Chris ChuteIDC's digital imaging research director. "They've (waited for Sony) to come out with something really innovative, almost like the Walkman (portable music player)" – Reuters. 

Affin Research upgrades Unisem to Buy, target price RM1.39

Source: http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2013/12/31/Affin-Research-upgrades-Unisem-to-Buy-target-price-RM139/

KUALA LUMPUR: Affin Investment Research has upgraded Unisem to a Buy with a target price of RM1.39 and it believes the worst is over for the company.

It said on Tuesday that after two consecutive years of financial losses, management in a recent meeting guided that the worse could be over as the group has restructured itself and is in aposition to sail back into profitability in 2014.

“Over the past few quarters, management has focused on product discontinuation of low volume products and has sought to raise average selling prices (ASPs) for others. More recently, Unisem further rationalised its headcount in Batam and decided to shut its Wales operations,” it said.’

Affin Research said Unisem anagement’s decision to close its Europe plant was due to: 1) Wales being no longer profitable; and 2) having adopted a new business strategy where management are more focus towards top tier and mid customer rather than new entrants in the industry.

“Collectively, Batam and Wales have been a drag to Unisem to the tune of RM15mil to RM20mil in losses over the past few years,” it said.

The research house said the management guided that the turnaround in Batam plant was already bearing fruit and had turned earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) positive in November 2013.

“We expect Unisem to register its final quarter of loss in 4Q13 on further restructuring charges, but expect a sharp turnaround in profitability in 2014 due to Unisem’s leaner operating structure.

“Without losses from Wales and Batam as well as continued profitability from its Ipoh and China units, we project that Unisem can achieve a FY14 net profit of RM44.2mil (previously RM16.1mil). Our FY13-15

EPS forecast is raised by -14%/+175%/139% respectively on our more upbeat prospects for the company,” it said.

Maybank Kim Eng cuts target prices for all property stocks under its coverage

Source: http://www.nextinsight.net/index.php/story-archive-mainmenu-60/919-2013/7908-nam-cheong-target-price-up-property-stocks-targets-down-

Maybank Kim Eng cuts target prices for all property stocks under its coverage

Analyst: Wilson Liew

We downgrade the Singapore property sector from Overweight to Neutral as we believe the prospect of QE tapering in 2014 will be a drag on Singapore developers’ share prices.

Physical prices look set to correct and we expect continued share price weakness unless the government removes some of the cooling measures.

Inexpensive stock valuations notwithstanding, we will adopt a Neutral view on the sector for 2014.

We cut our TPs for all the stocks that we cover in this universe, based on slightly steeper discounts to RNAV (lowered by 5ppts).

This is to factor in the uncertainties associated with QE tapering.

The exception is CapitaMalls Asia, which remains our top pick as it benefits from new malls opening in Singapore and China.

Maintain BUY on CapitaLand and Keppel Land as well, given their diversified business models, reduced exposure in the Singapore residential sector and strong execution in China.

周顯 - 高位跌兩成 才是散貨最佳時機

Source: http://www.mpfinance.com/htm/finance/20131231/columnist/en30_en30.htm

高位跌兩成 才是散貨最佳時機
2013年12月31日

【明報專訊】我有一個好朋友,在他報有一個財經專欄,我很喜歡看他寫的東西。有一天,看到他寫「假如樓價真的有如淡友所料,跌去了兩成,但這些淡友敢入市去買嗎?又或者說,樓價跌去兩成時,經濟環境必定不會太好,那時候,淡友敢入市去買樓嗎?」


他的說法,我大部分都同意,而這一次,他的看法也是很多人的看法,但我卻不敢苟同了。

因為,樓價跌去了兩成之後,的確能夠吸引到大量當日樓價高時,不敢買樓的準買家去買樓。這好比在1997年之後,樓價大跌,但是在1998年至2001年時,地產發展商仍然可以大量出貨。

只是到了2002年之後,所有購買力都消耗光了,樓價才繼續向下,那時,就真的沒有人敢買樓了。

這正如股票市場,股價跌去了兩成至三成時,才是真正出貨的好時機。在2007年之後,恒指32,000點時,只有最勇的股民,才敢去買股票;但是,到了二萬點時,則連資深投資者都湧去買股票了,於是,大市跌至10,600點,才告完結。

跌四成購買力方耗盡

所以,無論是股市還是樓市,當它跌去了15%至25%之時,才是散貨最多之時,因此在這個價位有強大的支持。當潛在的購買力一點一滴地耗盡了之後,才會繼續慢慢下跌,大約是跌了35%至40%之後,人們才會失去信心,市場的買家也會逐漸消失。到了這時,才真的是沒有人敢買樓了。這就是2003年時的情了。

[周顯 投資二三事]

Monday, December 30, 2013

柏年控股土地生黄金

Source: http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/treasures/44100.jsp

2013-12-30 13:08

大马股市的地产股拥有不少多年前留下的土地,现已增值多倍。但是,不少二线地产股股价却严重低估。

现在,笔者以柏年控股(BREM,8761,主板建筑股)证明之。

根据该公司1亿6854万股(不包括库存股)计算,在加总了所有土地价值后,该公司资产实值相等于每股8.32令吉!

“2012年12月,第一控股工业出售莎亚南20英亩工业地,净赚6900万令吉。”

“2013年11月,亿顺机构买雪州斯里肯邦岸(Sri Kembangan)14.4英亩商业地段,净利约1亿令吉。”

这两则新闻说明“土地生黄金”是铁一般事实。

今日,网络世界之虚拟货币比特币全球爆红,几年上上涨千倍。这种无国家央行承认与担保,单靠信心支撑的货币,其价值无中无有;参与买卖者是在赌博,不是投资。

土地就不同,它是人类必需品之一,可用以生产各类楼房工厂,属于投资性最强的资产。土地还可保值,抗通胀,其价值长期上涨,尤其是地点优越,位于大城市的地价,涨幅惊人。

大马股市的地产股拥有不少多年前留下的土地,现已增值多倍。但是,不少二线地产股股价却严重低估。现在,笔者以柏年控股证明之。

地产化为盈利推动股价

柏年控股的资产实值每股8.32令吉,但股价只有1.49令吉,即资产折扣高达82%在总资产中,地产占95%,它不但不会贬值,而且还有逐年增值潜能。

由于大马产业市场将稳健发展,何况公司地皮大部分位于产业最热卖地点的吉隆坡与巴生谷,再加上地皮成本十分廉宜,所以公司产业发展之盈利将逐年强力增长,成为推动股价上升的动力。

派送红股机率高

公司的四大核心业务即产业发展、产业投资、建筑和水供服务全都赚钱。在2014年3月财政年首二季,各业务盈利如下:
1.产业发展1821万令吉
2.产业投资213万令吉
3.建筑538万9000令吉
4.水供999万7000令吉
5.联号7万7000令吉

公司首二季净赚1881万,即每股净利11.2仙。笔者预期,全年净利保守可达每股20至22仙,则本益比6.6倍至7.3倍。

如果公司按照就派发每股6仙股息,则股息会酬率是4.11%公司拥有14亿338万令吉高素质资产,而净贷款仅4563万令吉,所以财务稳健。

至于公司未分配盈利之储备金,已高达3亿11万令吉,将来用以派送红股的机率相当高。

大胆超廉价买地赚大钱

廉价地产好股大胆买进可致富。

一人的信心,力量不大;千万人的信心加起来就是一股强大力量,大到可把比特币推高上千倍。

今日,大马股市地产股,不少在资产价值方面最强,最有增值潜能,但股价大平卖,只因为市场人士还缺乏信心。

在股市,“先知先觉赚大钱,后之后觉赚小钱,不知不觉赚不到钱。”

因此,如果长期投资买进柏年控股这类般价高度低估的地产好股,抱着以超级廉价买地皮,做发展商的心态耐心待股,以每股1.49令吉买进资产实值每股8.32令吉、管理好、盈利佳、财务稳、股息诱人的柏年控股,问题就不是赚不赚钱,而是赚多少钱。



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Sam Eisenstadt still bullish on stocks

Source: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sam-eisenstadt-bullish-on-stocks-2013-12-27?siteid=rss

Mark Hulbert






Dec. 27, 2013, 3:28 p.m. EST

Sam Eisenstadt still bullish on stocks
Opinion: Creator of Value Line stock-ranking model sees 8% gain in S&P 500

Few people listen to Sam Eisenstadt anymore. And that is a shame, since — even at 91 — he still has a lot to say.

Until he was fired four years ago, he had for more than two decades been head of research at Value Line, the research firm founded in 1931 that pioneered individual stock analysis. Eisenstadt remains a close student of the markets, often emailing institutional investors and journalists to report the latest results of his research. (Value Line didn’t respond to requests for comment.)

He currently is bullish on stocks. His market-timing model projects the S&P 500 will gain 8% over the next six months — even after a 28% rise so far in 2013.

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In a telephone interview from his apartment in Queens, N.Y., where he and his wife have lived since 1952, Eisenstadt exhibited no signs of easing up in retirement. He continues to hold himself to the same high standard that he kept for the 63 years he worked at Value Line: “Subject all beliefs about investing to mathematical verification.” Unfortunately, he says, “most advisers fail to live up to that standard.”

The famous Value Line stock-ranking system, which Eisenstadt was instrumental in creating in the mid-1960s, has struggled in recent years. But he says “there are compelling reasons to expect it once again to perform much better.”

Value Line continues to maintain his stock-ranking system. It rates 1,700 of the stocks with the largest market capitalizations according to their performance prospects over the next 12 months.

The 100 deemed to have the greatest potential are placed in Value Line’s “Group 1,” while the 100 with the worst prospects are placed in Group 5. The rest are placed in Groups 2 through 4.

Though the system is proprietary, its two primary factors are known as “price momentum” and “earnings momentum.” A stock is ranked higher to the extent its performance over the trailing year has been good and its earnings growth has accelerated. Despite the name “Value Line,” the stocks it favors fall closer to the “growth” end of the spectrum.

Focusing on these factors represented a breakthrough. Eisenstadt says he “is unaware of any firm that, prior to Value Line, had systematically been picking stocks based on either of them.”

The system has been phenomenally successful over the past five decades. From 1965 through 2012, according to data on Value Line’s website, Group 1 stocks on average have gained an annualized 12.9%, versus minus-9.8% for Group 5 — an average spread of more than 22 percentage points a year.

This record led some big academic names to fawn over Value Line. Perhaps the most famous to do so was the late Fischer Black, at the time a University of Chicago professor.

In a 1971 Financial Analysts Journal article titled “Yes, Virginia, There Is Hope,” Black concluded his analysis of the Value Line record by declaring that “most investment management organizations would improve their performance if they fired all but one of their security analysts and then provided the remaining analyst with the Value Line service.”

In recent years, however, the Value Line system has struggled. The advantage enjoyed by Group 1 over Group 5 has narrowed considerably. Over the past decade, it has been just 11 percentage points a year, on annualized basis; in the 1970s, for example, it was three times greater.    

Yet its recent performance is still impressive, according to David Aronson, a former finance professor at Baruch College and currently president of Hood River Research, a quantitative-analysis firm in New York. “Indeed, quants on Wall Street often celebrate when they discover a stock-selection system that can identify a performance differential of just a few percentage points between different groups of stocks,” he says.

Eisenstadt says that, given the initial success of his system, it was inevitable there would be at least some narrowing of Group 1’s advantage over Group 5. “A successful strategy typically weakens as more and more investors start following it,” he says.

This is only part of the reason for the system’s recent challenges, however, Eisenstadt adds. He says there are also some temporary factors that have contributed.

The biggest, in his opinion, is the market’s recent preference for lower-quality stocks. He is referring to those of companies whose very survival is in question, as indicated by traits such as high debt and highly variable year-to-year profitability. Eisenstadt says the Value Line ranking system performs best when higher-quality stocks with strong relative earnings, are “beating out junk.”

Consider the performance of the various quality rankings compiled by San Diego-based Ford Equity Research, based on factors such as debt and earnings volatility. Over the past decade, the stocks that Ford rated lowest for financial quality gained an annualized 14.2%, compared with 6.7% for the stocks rated strongest. Over the previous three decades, according to Ford, it was the highest-quality stocks that did better.

Eisenstadt says there are many reasons for this recent preference for junk — such as the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary stimulus, which has encouraged risk-taking. But, in any case, he says he is “confident the situation can’t last, since otherwise the market would become increasingly irrational.”

And when the situation rights itself, he predicts that the Value Line ranking system will recover some of its lost glory. For now, he counsels patience and discipline. No system, no matter how good, works equally well during all phases of the market cycle.             

Nam Cheong - Anticipating a New Year’s Gift

Source: http://singaporestockmarketnews.blogspot.com/2013/12/nam-cheong-anticipating-new-years-gift.html?

We anticipate NCL announcing a series of orders to close off FY13. We also take this opportunity to roll our valuation over to 10x FY14F P/E for a SGD0.45 TP (from SGD0.41). It remains a Top Pick in the oil & gas (O&G) sector with its strong 24% earnings growth and undemanding 6.7x FY14F P/E, supported by an expected dividend increase to yield 3.0-4.2% over FY13-15F.

■ Expecting a New Year’s gift
We expect NCL to give shareholders a New Year present with some new orders. The last platform supply vessel (PSV) for CY13 delivery should be sold, together with some vessels for CY14 delivery, if its pattern of selling vessels in batches holds. This will bring FY13 vessel sales to ≥22, exceeding FY12’s record of 21.

■ PSV delivery more likely in 1Q14
We note a strong possibility of the last PSV delivery being negotiated to 1Q14. This is purely operational, as owners prefer a vessel’s build date to be recorded as “2014” instead of “2013”, thereby appearing to be a year younger by merely delaying the delivery by a score of days. Therefore, we will not be surprised if the upcoming sales announcement includes this little twist – it will not have much impact on our estimates.

■ Entering 2014 in a position of strength
NCL’s orderbook is at a record MYR1.7bn (1 Jan 2013: MYR1.3bn). It delivered its strongest ever quarterly earnings (MYR58.7m) in 3Q13 and its strong orderbook offers a high level of baseline activity that secures future quarters’ profitability. Meanwhile, the large rig orderbook and the tightening global offshore support vessel (OSV) supply present positive industry dynamics that presage a healthy tailwind for NCL, which is now the largest shallow water OSV builder in the world (>12% market share).

■ A sector Top Pick, raise TP to SGD0.45

NCL’s stock combines a high 24% growth with an undemanding 6.7x FY14F P/E, 6.8x EV/EBITDA, 0.12x net gearing and expected increases in dividend to yield of 3.0- 4.2% over FY13-15F. This combination of high growth, low valuations, and dominant market position with a positive industry backdrop makes NCL one of our sector Top Picks. (Read Report)

Tips on how you can minimise your tax bill

Source: http://www.thesundaily.my/news/915260

Tips on how you can minimise your tax bill

As 2013 draws to a close the last thing anyone wants to think about is taxes. But if you want to minimise your taxes you have a few more days to take these actions. It can be done albeit the savings may not be huge. After all instead of paying to the taxman, why not have a few more ringgit to spend on yourself and family.

Let's be realistic on what you can do in the next few days. The key reliefs you could focus on is to maximise the claims for personal relief which are dependent on your expenditure. They are:

a) RM1,000 – purchase of books, journals, magazines and other similar publications for the enhancement of knowledge. The books purchased can be for yourself and family.

b) RM3,000 – purchase of personal computer once in every three years but does not include iPads, smartphones, etc. But includes desktop computers and computer notebooks.

c) RM300 – purchase of sports equipment such as racquets and bats but it excludes items such as sports attire, swimsuits and sports shoes.

d) RM6,000 – contribution to Skim Simpanan Pendidikan Nasional for your children. The interest earned thereon will be exempted from income tax. For contribution details please refer to National Higher Education Fund Corporation.

e) RM500 – medical check-up. There are a few more days for you and your wife and children to undergo a complete medical examination.

f) Donations to approved charities under Section 44(6) of the Income Tax Act are limited to 7% of the aggregate income (AG) and AG for a employed person could be the sum of his employment income net of any expenses incurred in the performing his duties, plus any other income, for example, rental and interest.

g) RM5,000 – purchase of supporting equipment for self (if disabled person) or for disabled spouse, child or parent.

h) RM3,000 – contributions to Private Retirement Schemes and Deferred Annuity Schemes.

All the above expenditure needs to be incurred by Dec 31, 2013, and receipts should be obtained in the name of the claimant and should be dated on the day the monies are spent. In case where contracts are needed they need to be effected by Dec 31, 2013.

For Muslims, if you make any zakat and fitrah payments before Dec 31, 2013, you are entitled to claim a rebate up to the amount you pay to the relevant Islamic authorities. The rebate will be set off against your tax payable.

Please do not forget that all your reliefs can be doubled if you and your wife opt for separate assessment and this will generally apply for individuals where both spouses earn more than RM3,000 a year.

To those who own a property which is rented out, you bring forward the repair expenditure to this year if the repairs are carried out during 2013 and the bill for such work is issued preferably by Dec 31.

Finally, if you have sold any property this month and the sale and purchase documents are being prepared for signature and completion, please try and rush the procedure through before the year-end to benefit from the lower Real Property Gains Tax (RPGT) rates. If you sign the S&P agreement in 2014 you will be subjected to the higher RPGT rates.

Hope the above tips will be of some benefit to you. Good Luck and Happy New Year.

S.M. Thanneermalai is president of Chartered Tax Instituteof Taxation Malaysia and a senior executive director of PwC

亚行:增长率可达6% 亚洲可度过QE减码冲击

Source : http://www.nanyang.com/node/589057?tid=462

(东京28日讯)亚洲发展银行(ADB)行长中尾武彦指出,他有信心亚洲新兴经济体可以度过美国缩减货币刺激规模的冲击,预估今明两年增长率可达到6%左右。

“对于美联储缩减资产收购规模的冲击,我要提出比较乐观的看法,”

曾经担任日本财务省次官的中尾武彦在亚行的东京办公室接受访问时说:“市场某种程度已经消化缩减购债规模的因素,市场层面有点反应过度。”

中尾武彦说,美国、日本经济转强应该有助于2014年亚洲新兴经济体。同时,他说亚洲的决策官员应该利用这段稳定期来应因国内政策的需要,例如印度和印尼降低财政赤字,这点很重要。

日本政策发挥成效

中尾武彦还指出,尽管日本和中国外交关系紧张,但是亚行还不需要修改经济预测。他说,泰国政局动荡恐失去吸引外资的机会,因为还可以投资东南亚许多其他国家。

亚行本月稍早上修对中国2014年的经济增长预估值,从7.4%上调至7.5%;同时调降东南亚2014年经济增长预估,由5.3%降到5.2%。

亚行维持亚洲发展中经济体今年和明年的经济增长预测,料分别增长6%和6.2%。

4月接任亚行行长的中尾武彦另指出,有强烈迹象显示日本政府的政策正发挥成效,他乐观看待日本的通缩将告终。

“日本应持续留意结构性的政策以强化增长,并思考如何处理社会安全体制在内的财政整顿问题。”

Saturday, December 28, 2013

JFApex: 盈利看涨支撑 综指明年坐1920望1980

Source: http://www.nanyang.com/node/588646?tid=462

(吉隆坡26日讯)JFApex证券上调富时隆综指明年底目标至1920点,并称若市场买气改善,或可攀至1980。

该行分析员指出,隆股市来年的支撑因素来自企业盈利看涨,同时更上调本益比(PE)目标。

该行也调整了2013至2015年企业盈利预测(分别增长5.7%、6.9%和8.8%),以及15倍的本益比目标。

“15倍本益比的估值,比14.7倍本益比历史中值仅有微幅溢价,是因为一旦美联储开始削减量化宽松政策(QE),将导致市场流动资金萎缩,进而影响马股表现。”

但该行报告也说,假如美国经济数据支撑正面情绪,并对马股的“投资胃口”

改善,分析员综指2014年底或可进一步攀升至1980点。

谈及所看好的领域,分析员建议投资者着眼高增长和拥有具体消息的领域,如油气、建筑和种植领域,进而都给予“增持”评级。

鉴于油气和建筑领域为经济转型执行方案(ETP)底下的两大“先锋”,相信明年会释出更多工程合约。

同时,在预计原棕油期货价格回弹之际(或将在2014年走高至每吨2800令吉),加上产量放缓及先进国家所带动的强劲需求,将可激励投资者对种植领域的兴致。

看好水务木材主题

若以主题式来看,JFApex证券偏好水务和木材股。

分析员解释,雪州水务僵局得出解决方案以及水管更换计划,将使水务股受益。

“日本房屋市场的恢复,也带动了木材业者的收益。”

分析员也建议投资者搜寻高价值、股价低于净有形资产价值(NTA)和拥有强劲盈利前景的中小型股,因为这些二三线股,将继续交出比大型股优异的表现。

“话虽如此,若股价已有所滑落,投资者也应该累积大型股,来作长线投资。”



避开消费股产托

有看好,当然也有不看好。

JFApex证券分析员建议投资者年年避开消费与产托领域。

分析员指,在政府相继削减多项补贴,以及调高烟草税和电费之后,将导致国民的可支配收入减低,进而冲击消费领域。

至于产托领域,虽目前可提供约5%的周息率,但相较于无风险资产(债券)高涨的殖利率,产托股对投资者的吸引力已不大。

加上我国产托大部分都采取短期融资,因而有再融资风险。


10年后超越英德 巴西将成第5大经济体

Source: http://www.nanyang.com/node/588864?tid=462

10年后超越英德 巴西将成第5大经济体

财经
天下 2013-12-28 13:17

(巴西利亚27日讯)据英国智库“经济与商业研究中心”(CEBR)透过最新公布的预测报告,至2023年,巴西将晋升为世界第五大经济体。

2011年,巴西的国内生产总值曾一度超过了英国,跃居世界第六大经济体,但在随后的一年即丧失了这个地位。

报告指出,到了2023年,巴西将超越英国和德国,成为世界第五大经济体,而德国和英国将分别降至第六和第七位。

尽管如此,研究认为巴西依然保持着其强大的经济潜力,在大宗商品、食品和能源生产上尤其如此。这些优势将确保巴西能在未来10年内,不断提升自己在世界经济中的地位。

英成欧洲老大

CEBR的报告也预测,英国将在2030年前取代德国,成为欧洲最大经济体。

持续增加的外国移民,较少的欧元区问题冲击,以及相对于其它欧洲国家较低的税率,将使英国的经济成长优于多数西方国家,到2030年将成为欧洲最强、也最大的经济体。

报告指出,英国未来经济发展需要注意的议题包括,需将外销出口的产品销往快速增长的市场,欧盟可能出现分裂,英国与欧洲未来的关系走向,及2014年9月苏格兰举行公投等问题。

相对之下,虽然未来几年德国经济理论上仍将稳健增长,但在欧元区不分裂的前提下,疲弱的欧洲经济增长率、贬值的欧元货币、必须金援欧元区经济欠佳的国家等因素,将拖累德国在全球经济的排名。

中国2028年超美

此外,综合经济增长预测、通胀率及汇率价值,CEBR也推测,到2028年,中国的经济规模将超越美国,成为世界第一。

接着则是印度排名第3、日本第4、巴西第5、英国第6。

报告指出,日本首相安倍晋三为对抗通货紧缩推出的财经政策,日元在可见的未来将继续疲弱。

Friday, December 27, 2013

Tambun Indah to construct RM38mil international school in Penang

Source: http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2013/12/26/TAMBUN-INDAH-TO-CONSTRUCT-RM38-MLN-INTERNATIONAL-SCHOOL-IN-PENANG.aspx

KUALA LUMPUR: Tambun Indah Land Bhd will construct a RM38mil International school in its flagship township, Pearl City in Penang.
The property developer will lease the school, GEMS international, to its operator,GEMS Maju Sdn Bhd, for 30 years.
In a statement, Tambun Indah said GEMS International school was slated to open in mid-2015 and GEMS Maju intended to invest a further RM32mil to equip the campus with necessary amenities and facilities.
Managing Director Teh Kiak Seng said the international school development was timely given the area's ongoing robust economic activity driven by numerous foreign direct investments. 
"The establishment of an international campus within Pearl City - indeed, the first international school in mainland Penang - will certainly raise the profile of the township, as well as, enhance the vibrancy of our business park," he was quoted as saying in the statement.
Construction of the campus, targeted to commence early next year and estimated to complete in mid-2015, will be built on a 3.24-hectare piece of land in Pearl City Business Park, with a built-up area of approximately 18,580 sq metres.
The campus would be able to accommodate a student population of 1,400 under the first phase, with plans to increase its capacity to 3,000 students in subsequent phases.
The first intake would begin in September 2015. - Bernama

UOB KH maintains 'buy' rating on REX International after non-commercial hydrocarbons found in Oman well

Source:

Thursday, 26 December 2013 17:30

Excerpts from analysts' reports

UOB KH maintains 'buy' rating on REX International after non-commercial hydrocarbons found in Oman well

Analyst: Loke Chunying

·Non-commercial hydrocarbons have been discovered in the exploration well, Masirah North North #1 (MNN#1). MNN#1 is part of a 2-well drilling program in Oman.

Mans Lidgren, CEO of Rex International. NextInsight file photoThe non-commerciality of the oil well could be due to many possibilities such as low pressure at reservoir, oil being too viscous or too heavy etc.

Nonetheless, datasets acquired from the coring and logging programmes of the first well will give engineers a better understanding of the Oman prospect, and will aid in the identification of the second exploration well.

Subject to the approval of the Omani government, drilling at Oman is anticipated to commence again within the next 2 weeks.

Through its stake in Lime, Rex has a 41.6% effective participating interest in the Oman concession. The Oman concession is a key asset of Rex and forms almost 2/3 of our valuation.

·Putting things in perspective. Over the past 2 years, Rex Technology has been tried and tested across North Energy’s 59 prospects.

Of the 41 wells that were drilled, 35 predictions were forecasted accurately (85% success rate).

Of the 16 wells that were predicted positive using Rex Technology, 11 had been drilled with commercial oil (69% accuracy).

16 predicted positive – 11 drilled with commercial oil (69% accuracy) 25 predicted negative—24 were dry (96% accuracy)

Maintain BUY and target price of S$1.27. While the oil in the first exploration well is not commercially viable, all is not lost as the presence of hydrocarbons (oil) still underpins Rex’s claims in its ability to find oil.

It is important for investors to look at 1 or 2 more well drilling as a more accurate representation of the effectiveness of Rex’s Technology.

Rex will be drilling 5 to 7 onshore well in its concessions in Trinidad & Tobago in 2014, with the first drilling to be carried out in 1Q2014. Drilling at Oman is anticipated to also commence again within 2 weeks.

Thursday, December 26, 2013

你穷,因为你没有野心 !- 马云

Source: http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/43910.jsp

马云:在创办阿里巴巴时, 我请了24个朋友来我家商量, 我整整讲了两个小时,他们听得稀里糊涂,我也讲得糊里糊涂。最后说到底怎么样?

其中 23个人说算了吧,只有一个在银行上班的朋友说你可以试试看,不行赶紧逃回来。我想了 一个晚上,第二天早上决定还是干,哪怕24个人全反对我也要干。

当时立即遭到了亲朋好友的强烈反对“其实最大的决心并不是我对互联网有很大的信心,而是我觉得做一件事,无论失败与成功,经历就是一种成功,你去闯一闯,不行你还可以掉头; 但是你如果不做,就像晚上想想千条路,早上起来走原路, 一样的道理。”

马云:很多人一生输就输在对新生事物上
第一看不见;
第二看不起 ;
第三看不懂;
第四来不及!

你穷,是因为你没有野心!

野心,是一种人生在世的伟 大理想,一定要实现的宏伟目标。在这个世界上,只有不敢想、不敢做的事,却没有干不成的事!你的野心有多大,未来就有多宽广。

一个贫苦不堪的勤杂工, 却因一次人前的难堪,一次刻骨铭心的受窘,竟然成为举世瞩目、无比富有的女中豪杰!

最初,她在一家大公司里,是工作在最底层的员工, 每天的工作就是端茶倒水,清扫卫生,根本没有人注意她。 一次,因为没带工作证,她被公司的门卫拦在门外,不准进 入。她告诉门卫,自己确确实实是公司的员工,此次是为公司买办公用品去了。然而她好话说了一大堆,门卫仍然对她不屑一顾,不准她入内。这期间,她眼睁睁地看着那些年龄相仿、身着职业装的白领们先后进入了公司的大门,根本没有出示工作证。于是她问门卫:“这些人没有出示工作证, 怎么也都进去了?”门卫用一种鄙视的目光上上下下打量了她 一番,冷冷地一摆手,那意思就是说:“走远点,别烦我!”。她感到了莫大的羞辱, 自尊心仿佛被门卫狠狠的踩在脚下,跺个稀巴烂!她看看自己寒酸的衣着,和手中推着脏兮兮的平板车,再看看那些衣着华丽、她的心被深深的刺痛了,骤然品尝到被人歧视的酸楚,她的心发跳、脸发烫,浑身颤抖。

这时,就在这时,一个誓言,在她的心头轰然炸响:我一定要创造奇迹,成为万人瞩 目的富姐,成为举世闻名的强人!让这种耻辱永远的埋藏地下!
从此以后,她开始利用一 切机会来充实自己。每一天, 她第一个来公司,最后一个离开。她分秒必争,将别人随随 便便丢掉的时间都花在了学习和工作上。很快,她就脱颖而出了。在同一批骋用者中,她 第一个做了业务代表。接着她 又依靠超人的努力,成为这家 跨国公司中国区总经理!她学 历并不高,只有自考专科文 凭,在中国的经理中被尊为“打工皇后”,后来,她又任微软公司中国公司的总经理。她,就是商界女杰吴士宏!

试想,如果当初,吴士宏没有改变命运的决心,没有成为富人的野心,或许,她一辈子都是那个贫穷而卑微的勤杂工! 是野心,是无坚不摧的野心, 铸就了辉煌!

你穷,是因为你没有极度渴望成为富人的野心!

你穷,是因为你没有燕雀缺乏的鸿鹄之志!

你穷,是因为你无法战胜自己内心的怯懦!

你穷,是因为你缺乏变不可能为可能的勇气和巨大决心!

有了野心,你才能克服一 切自卑、逼出潜能!

有了野心,你才能坚持不懈、不断学习和改进,以最快的速度完善自己!

有了野心,你才会不畏一 切艰难险阻。敢于创造出别人不敢、也不能的奇迹!

不论你现在家境有多穷, 地位有多低。都不要否定自己,都不要失去凌云之志。

一身贫寒的李嘉诚,当初比现在的你还窘迫,你又有什么理由继续受穷,不成为富翁呢?

你穷,是因为你什么都不敢想;

你穷,是因为你什么都不敢做;

你穷,因为你没有野心!!!

益纳利美昌赚幅将改善

Source: http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/temperature_probe/43906.jsp

1.益纳利美昌(INARI,0166,创业板)在收购Amertron Global公司后,对公司业务有什么影响?

2.请问半导体领域的展望,益纳利美昌的展望如何?

3.请问该公司的盈利展望?股息展望?

4.该公司的合理价格是多少?



本地智能手机与平板电脑(S&T)半导体制造业者之一的益纳利美昌(INARI,0166,创业板),过去5年的净利复合年增长率(CAGR)均达40%。

该公司早前收购Amertron Global公司,进一步提升产品组合,使得该公司从智能手机与平板电脑领域,扩至航空、国防及汽车领域。

随着智能手机与平板电脑使用已成趋势,这项收购案也让益纳利美昌搭上趋势列车,已趋成熟的半导体领域的大量需求,也支撑该领域的发展,为益纳利美昌增添防御性特质。

收购及整合Amertron Global公司后,益纳利美昌2014财年首季营业额按年劲扬2.5倍,尽管净利赚幅因产品组合差异,导致赚幅由13%下调至11%,但该公司同期的按年净利增幅却达1.79倍。

晶片组装占营收75%

即使我们不将Amertron Global的最高业绩作为考量,益纳利美昌在自行成长的情况下,依然可透过持续性的产能扩张,取得30%的按年营业额增幅。

尽管整合后,净利赚幅下滑,但随着该公司持续提高营运效率,赚幅将会改善。

益纳利美昌的核心业务,是为Avago科技进行无线频率(Radio Frequency)晶片组装,这项业务占公司总营业额的75%,也是智能手机与平板电脑业务成长的主力。

随着资讯通讯科技的新一轮改革进程,即从高速分组接入(HSPA)即将演化成为长期演进技术(LTE,俗称4G),益纳利美昌于无线频率领域的专业将为该公司于市场中奠定一席之位。



产能将增15%

综合以上优势,益纳利美昌管理层相信在5号厂房完成后,公司产能将可增加15%,或相当于600万令吉,届时产能使用率将达85%。

该公司专门进行研发及工程解决方案供应的Ceedtec(持股51%子公司),近期也在营运支出上取得平衡,若结合Amerton Global日愈增加的光纤产品订单,预计2014至2015财年的盈利,将分别增加85%及29%。

在收购AmertonGlobal之前,益纳利美昌净负债处于0.16倍低水平,在可稳定获利前提下,若以40%股息制度计算,预计每股派息可达4.4%或7仙。

该公司的稳定获利、2012至2014财年高达98%的复合年增长率、智能手机与平板电脑需求旺盛,及该公司积极朝转板目标前进,这些都成了益纳利美昌的优势。

若依照2014财年的12倍本益比计算,该股目标价料可达2.10令吉。

MKH Berhad - Deeply Undervalued

Source: http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kenangaresearch/43925.jsp

INVESTMENT MERIT

Kajang-based property developer with strong earnings track record. MKH Berhad (MKH) is a fundamentally strong property developer with a solid 19 years track record of profitability since its listing in 1995.

High exposure to the affordable housing segment. We gather that most of MKH’s housing projects are located in Kajang mainly offering affordable units priced below RM600k/unit. This should place MKH in a good position as we believe developers with significant exposure in affordable housing should fare better under the current economic scenario.

FY13 core net profit surged 60% YoY to RM123m. This is mainly due to strong performance from its Property Development & Construction (PDC) division in which PBT jumped 69% YoY to RM143m. Plantation division core PBT also increased to RM24m (from last year’s RM5m). We have excluded the impact of unrealized forex loss and a gain on asset disposal (RM31m) in the plantation division.

Plantation segment likely to be profitable in FY14. MKH has planted in total 14,400ha of oil palm estates in East Kalimantan out of which 13,900 or 97% are already matured and producing FFB. We reckon that MKH is poised to deliver minimum 15% FFB growth in FY14 due to better yield produced by maturing trees. Overall, this should translate into better earnings in the plantation division.

Trading Buy with a TP of RM3.05. Our fair value of RM3.05 is based on a 35% discount to our SoP RNAV of RM4.69, implying 1.02x PBV on FY14E BV/share of RM3.00 or 7.1x FY14E PER. On PER basis, the valuation is close to the small-mid cap property companies’ average Fwd PER of 8.0x.

TECHNICALS

Resistance: RM2.85 (R1), RM3.05 (R2)

Support: RM2.50 (S1), RM2.39 (S2)

Comments: The share price has been trading at range bound over the last six month between RM2.39-RM2.85. Formation of bullish white candles in the next few days could confirm the “Hammer” pattern for a potential positive rebound towards previous high @RM2.85. Beyond that, RM3.05 is the next target, based on measurement objective.

BUSINESS OVERVIEW

MKH Berhad (formerly known as Metro Kajang Holdings Berhad) is a respected and established property developer with a reputation for costeffective and well managed projects. Its current portfolio comprises a

range of developments across all property sectors which are mainly located in Kajang, Damansara, Semenyih, Serdang and Melawati. To date, it has developed and undertaken more than 30,000 units of mixed development projects with a value exceeding RM6.0 billion. In addition, MKH is also involved in oil palm plantation, project management, property investment, construction and furniture manufacturing.

BUSINESS SEGMENT

Property development and construction: This segment includes property development, building and civil works contracting.

Trading: Trading in building materials and household related products and general trading.

Hotel and property investment: Hotel business and property investment and management.

Manufacturing: Furniture manufacturing.

Plantation: Oil palm cultivation. The group has planted in total 14,400ha of oil palm estates in East Kalimantan.

SWOT ANALYSIS

Strengths: High exposure to affordable housing segment should translate into sustainable demand for its product.

Weaknesses: High concentration of projects in Kajang. However, it has already started to venture out of Kajang with projects such as Hill Park Shah Alam and Pelangi Semenyih.

Opportunities: Maturing plantation estate to provide new source of sustainable income.

Threats: Negative policy affecting property buyers/investors.

Source: Kenanga

三大钱坑…别误闯•克鲁曼

Source: http://www.nanyang.com/node/588352?tid=743

名家观点:三大钱坑…别误闯•克鲁曼

财经 评论  名家观点 2013-12-25 12:23

这次要谈三个钱坑,也可说是货币的倒退现象。

许多人居然决定要倒回到幾个世纪之前,白费百年来的进展。

第一个钱坑,是实实在在的坑洞,即巴布亚纽幾内亚的Porgera金矿。

这处金矿恶名昭彰,不仅迫害人权,又破坏生态。

至於金价虽已重跌,但仍是十年前的三倍,因此业者照挖。

第二个钱坑较为離奇:冰岛的比特币矿。

比特币是一种数位货币,何以有价值?

目前还说不清楚。但至少有人願意买,原因是他们相信别人也要买。

比特币可说是一种虚拟的黄金,且就像黄金一样能够挖矿:要产生新比特币,必须解答非常复杂的数学问题,需使用强大的运算能力,还得大量耗电让电脑来跑。

於是矿坑就被选在冰岛,那裡电费便宜,而且严寒的气候自然能让高速运转的电脑不致过热。

尽管如此,为创造一些没有明确用途的虚拟物件,仍耗用了真正的资源。

第三个钱坑,则是一种幻觉。

回顾1936年,经济学大师凯因斯曾主张,要恢复充份就业,必须靠政府来增加支出。

但从当年乃至於今天,这种主张始终面对强大的政治阻力。

於是凯因斯便异想天开地另提建议:让政府在废弃的矿坑内埋藏一些装满钞票的瓶子,让民间自己花钱来挖,这将比政府花钱兴建道路、港口等有用的东西还更管用。

一无所有

就算花钱挖瓶子根本毫无意义,但至少能为经济提供必要的动力。

凯因斯接著要强调的才是重点。

他认为,挖掘真正的金矿其实跟他的建议没两样,因为挖矿的结果就等於是从地底挖出钞票来。

从地底挖出来的大量黄金,许多又被埋藏起来,数十萬块金锭不就是如此安置像纽约联邦储备银行的金库里?

从凯因斯这个带嘲讽的比喻,可发现过了三代根本没甚麼改变。

但许多人仍极力反对以扩大公共支出来对抗失业,矿工仍为了窖藏黄金而破坏环境(凯因斯曾谑称金本位是蛮荒时代的遗俗),比特币只不过让这个玩笑比喻更加增色而已。

黄金还可以用来装假牙;人们现在却耗用资源来创造比特币这种“虚拟的黄金”,结果除了得到一串数字之外,根本一无所有。

货币非经济繁荣根源

我猜想,若亚当斯密还在世,想必痛心疾首。

亚当斯密主张自由化市场,但较少人知道他也坚决主张金融管制,他基於这点鼓吹纸币的好处。

他深深瞭解,货币能够活络商业,但並非国家经济繁荣的根源。

他主张,应让纸币通行,不必受国家财富“窖藏”大量金、银的约束。

那我们为何还要不断挖掘金矿,甚至全天候用电脑来跑出比特币?

金本位主义者会告诉你,钞票是政府印发,会贬值,因而不值得信任。

但奇怪的是,货币价值降低的情况却极少出现,例如目前工业国家的问题並非通货膨胀太高,而是太低。

即使在全球,高通胀的国家也很少。

但一些人仍大肆宣扬恶性通胀的疑虑。

千萬别被这些幻想的陷阱所迷,只管相信,你钱包所有拥有的才是实在的。

无论是巴纽的金矿,还是冰岛的比特币矿,都是在使我们倒退到17世纪。文:克鲁曼 (诺贝尔经济学奖得主)

法兴银行:危机未能推动价格 黄金避风港地位终结

Source: http://www.nanyang.com/node/588361?tid=462

法兴银行:危机未能推动价格 黄金避风港地位终结


财经
天下 2013-12-25 12:33

(巴黎24日讯)法兴银行跨资产策略师帕特里克莱格兰德週一公佈报告指出,黄金作为避风港资产的地位已终结。

莱格兰德指出,黄金在今年中已经丧失了作为安全避风港的地位,意大利大选、塞浦路斯求援甚至是美国政府关门和债务上限僵局都未能推动金价上涨。

同时,美联储资产负债表的扩大被视为关键的金价推动因素,但金融市场从年初开始预测美联储将在年底前开始缩减量化宽松规模,令金价进一步承压。

12月政策会议上美联储最终决定开始缩减量化宽松规划,确认了市场有关量化宽松将在2014年终结的预期。

金融危機过後,黄金看涨人士预测美联储及其他央行採取的量化宽松措施将促使通胀上升並导致美元等货币走软,从而推高了金价;但从现在来看,通缩才是更大的威胁。

莱格兰德指出,今年金价的大幅下跌反映了投资者的紧张情绪,这种情绪对所有商品期货都造成了影响;但需特别指出的是,主要经济体的通缩风险仍是最负面的信号之一。

长期仍被高估

欧洲央行和美联储都预测2014年通胀水平较低,而尽管日本央行推出了新一轮的量化宽松措施,但该国通胀率则继续维持在1%附近。

他还表示,这並不意味著黄金市场上没有潜在需求,亚洲和中东各国已对今年金价的下跌作出回应;近日需求有所下降,但仍处於“稳固的水平”。但从长期来看,黄金仍被高估。

黄金跌破1200美元 投资者权衡缩债影响

黄金期货週一下跌,一些投资者继续仔细研究美联储的缩减购债决定。

纽约商交所交投最为活跃的二月黄金期货结算价跌6.70美元,至每安士1197美元。

本交易日交投淡静。

芝加哥期货经纪商Kingsview Financial的高级市场策略师泽曼表示,如果金价跌破6月份底部,则之後金价可能快速下跌,数日内的跌幅可能高达200美元。黄金期货6月最低水平为每安士1179.40美元。

他表示,黄金可能在近期内再次经历大幅下跌,也许不久之後就可能跌破每安士1000美元。

OSK-DMG: "Singapore Market Will Roar In 2014!"

Source: http://www.nextinsight.net/index.php/story-archive-mainmenu-60/919-2013/7864-osk-qsingapore-market-will-roar-in-2014q-

Excerpts from OSK-DMG report




OSK-DMG says S'pore will roar in 2014 and names its top stock picks

Terence Wong, CFA, research head, OSK-DMGAnalysts: Terence Wong, CFA, and the Singapore Research Team

In the last few years, clients have been commenting that the Singapore market has little to offer. Many funds had underweighted Singapore, which on hindsight was a good move.

Between 2010 and 2013, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand roared ahead with total gains of 72-103%. Singapore, on the other end of the scale, eked out gains of a mere 10% in four years, not enough to beat the inflation rate.

Even Malaysia, which is largely seen as a defensive market, has done way better than Singapore.

Indeed, Singapore stock market prospects seemed to have dimmed compared to other parts of Asean and investors have been flocking to other markets in the world that look more appealing.

In 2013, while the regional markets flat-lined, the US markets charted new highs. During the 4-year period, the total returns for the US markets were at least five times better than Singapore’s.

In view of the country’s sound fundamentals, reasonable valuations and the prospect of Singapore being a safe haven, we are staking our bets on the Singapore stock market making a comeback in 2014.

Flight to safety: Stable politics and currency. Politics will be a key factor influencing some of the regional markets, particularly Indonesia and Thailand.

Indonesia will be holding its elections next year, while Thailand - also due to hold its polls in February 2014 - is currently facing a political quagmire that can potentially cripple growth, as seen in 2010.

Given the region’s less stable political environment and the US Federal Reserve (Fed)’s quantitative easing (QE) possibly dealing a blow to the currencies of the emerging markets in the ASEAN region, the SGD is likely to be the last bastion of strength and stability in the region.

The strong Singapore dollar should attract foreign funds that have parked their money in other ASEAN markets.

The STI is trading at a 13.2x forward P/E, which compares favourably against the 5-year average of 14.2x. In terms of P/BV, the STI is trading at 1.3x, below the 5-year average of 1.44x.

Small caps rock! While the blue chips are expected to deliver decent returns, what looks more interesting are the small caps.

The small caps under our coverage are currently trading at 9x FY14 P/Es and are enjoying growth rates exceeding 20%, vs the large caps’ 14x and mid caps’ 15x FY14 P/Es.

Construction sector and S-chips, both of which are largely in the small caps space, should see a pickup in investor interest.

Our Top Picks are DBS, Ezion, Eu Yan Sang, First Resources, Keppel REIT, King Wan, Lian Beng, Midas Holdings, MTQ, Nam Cheong, OSIM International, Sembcorp Marine, ST Engineering, andYangzijiang.

Tuesday, December 24, 2013

KPJ Healthcare - Transition for next phase of growth

Source: http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/amresearch/43816.jsp

- We reaffirm our HOLD recommendation on KPJ Healthcare with a revised ex-all fair value of RM3.85/share (vs. RM6.00/share previously), based on our DCF valuation, following an enlarged share base from its corporate exercise.

- The corporate exercise includes:- (1) 1-for-2 bonus issue of up to 330mil shares; (2) 1-for-15 renounceable rights issue of up to 44mil shares at an exercise price of RM2.80/share; and (3) Detachable warrants per rights issue of up to 88mil warrants at an exercise price of RM4.01/warrant.

- The bonus and rights issue would increase its share base by c.60% to 1bil. The rights proceeds of RM123mil would be used for the construction of the Bandar Dato’ Onn Specialist Hospital (65%), debt repayment (28%) and working capital (4%).

- A full conversion of the warrants would increase KPJ’s share base by 9% to 1.1bil. As the exercise period of the warrants is for five years, the impact of the dilution would not be immediate.

- KPJ will raise proceeds of RM353mil if all of the warrants were to be converted. This would help in funding future capacity expansion given eight new hospitals by FY16 with more than 1,500 beds will come on-stream once they are fully operational. As at end-3QFY13, the group had cash of RM236mil.

- While new hospitals would be the key earnings driver, EPS growth is expected to be flat at c.4% in the next few years as a result of start-up losses from the new hospitals, with stronger earnings visibility expected in FY16F.

- Gearing is expected to decrease to 0.3x in FY14F from 0.5x in FY13F, due to the rights proceeds.

- Although KPJ is well-positioned to ride on the growing domestic private healthcare sector and ageing population, its earnings weakness is vulnerable to the potential longerthan- expected gestation period for new hospitals, which typically takes 3-5 years.

- The major overhang on the stock is now lifted following KPJ’s winning on appeal in the civil suit initiated by Hospital Penawar, which would have cost RM71mil (>50% of FY14F’s earnings).

- At the current level, the stock is trading at fully-diluted 44x PE of FY14F, above its historical peak of 34x. Valuation is lofty relative to regional peers at 28x.

Source: AmeSecurities

CBIP - One For 2014 Buy Hold and Monitor

Source:

Palm oil is the cheapest edible oil among other edible oils like Sunflower, Rapeseed and Soya oil. This is because on the same acreage of land, the production of palm oil is several times more than that of the other oils and not because it is inferior to them in anyway.

People all over the world consume palm oil daily. Much of the usage is in the food industry. Being a versatile oil, it is also used as biodiesel and the manufacturing of products like soap, detergent, shower cream, shampoo, candles, nylon strings, vitamins, and other cosmetic and pharmaceutical products.

Oil palm biomass is also useful. It can be turned into biofuel, fiberboard, pulp and paper, and fertilizer.

Demand for palm oil is envisaged to grow in tandem with the world's population growth. This coupled with innovation for palm oil has resulted in the crop having an excellent future.

All oil palm plantations (except the very small ones) have one thing in common. They all need palm oil mills. These mills are necessary to extract palm oil from fresh fruit bunches (FFB).

One company that has the expertise and experience to supply, install, build and maintain these mills is listed in Bursa. In fact it is the only listed company in Bursa that has this technology.

Not all palm oil mills are the same. Modipalm Engineering Sdn Bhd (MESB) working in close cooperation with Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) has devised a system known as the Continuous Sterilization System to extract oil from FFB efficiently. This is the latest new technology that is much favored by oil palm plantations.

The main advantages of this system is higher oil extraction and lower labor cost when compared to the conventional type of palm oil mills. To date, MESB has built some 80 such mills.

MESB is not a listed company, but its parent company, CBIP is. In September 2013, CBIP announced that MESB has been awarded by PT Rafi K.A., a subsidy of TDM Berhad to construct a 60 tones per hour Continuous Sterilization Palm Oil Mill (CSPOM) and to deliver 3 units of Double Deck Continuous Sterlization System at a total cost of RM53,304,400.

In October 2013, MESB made another announcement which said that PT Windu N.A. of Indonesia had awarded letters of award to it to construct a 60 tones per hour CSPOM at the cost of RM33,001,088.

The management of CBIP says that these contracts will contribute positively to earnings for the financial years 2013, 2014 and 2015.

While these contracts are not really that big, it does show one thing. It shows that Modipalm Continuous Sterilization System is efficient and competent and in demand. This augurs an excellent future stream of profits for CBIP.

In plantation, CBIP has 70,088 hectares of land. Most of these lands are in Indonesia. Presently only 10,426 hectares are planted.

Other businesses of CBIP are: Special Purpose Vehicles and Steam Energy.

Fundamentally speaking, CBIP has a strong balance sheet and pays regular dividends. At the present price of RM3.20 plus, this stock is good to buy, hold and monitor. I am long on stock and intend to accumulate more.

As usual, you listen to me at your own risk.

To all my readers, I wish them, Good Luck, Good Profits, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.

More properties to go under the hammer

Source: http://www.thesundaily.my/news/911661

KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 23, 2013): The ban on Developer Interest Bearing Scheme (DIBS) and the hike in real property gains tax (RPGT) rates next year is likely to result in more property auctions in 2014, said National House Buyers Association (HBA) secretary-general Chang Kim Loong (pix).

"I will not be surprised if there will be a lot of properties for auction next year. I won't be surprised because a lot of people who bought into properties for investment, they are now caught out with RPGT and DIBS," he told SunBiz in an interview.

"So it now depends on your holding power. How long can you hold on to the property with the bank interest when the developer won't be paying installments for you anymore? By next year there should be a lot of foreclosure cases," he added.

Chang said if there is a slow down in the property market, if buyers who bought properties with DIBS are not able to service their loans and end up in foreclosure, they would not even be able to repay their debts after the property is auctioned off and banks would not be able to recover the full loan amount.

"Assuming there is a slow down in the market, do you think the bank will finance 100% of DIBS at RM600,000 for a unit that is actually priced at RM500,000 without DIBS? The banks will also not be able to recover the RM600,000 (after the property is auctioned off) because they hiked it up in such a way for interest purpose," he said.

"If the property's real price is at RM500,000 but was purchased at RM600,000, even after it is auctioned off, the buyer would not be able to clear his debt. He won't have enough to pay off the debt because the actual price is RM500,000. The valuations are off already," he added.

Chang said the banning of DIBS and any permutation of DIBS should stabilise the property market and bring speculation to a more realistic level, as property prices would be more reflective of the market value.

"From the last discussion I had with the Valuation and Property Services Department, they said the market has slowed down to a more moderate level and they expect that there will be a saturation point next year. I hope it becomes a reality and to a certain extent, first time house buyers will be able to buy into properties," he said.

The announcements on the new real property gains tax (RPGT) rates and banning of the Developer Interest Bearing Scheme (DIBS) came during Budget 2014.

The ban on DIBS was to prevent developers from incorporating interest rates on loans in house prices during the construction period. This means financial institutions are now prohibited from providing final funding for projects involved in DIBS.

Meanwhile, RPGT rate is now 30% for gains on properties disposed within the first three years, while disposals in the fourth and fifth years are increased to 20% and 15% each, res­pectively.

No RPGT is imposed on Malaysians selling their properties in the sixth year, though companies will be taxed at 5%.
For foreigners, RPGT would be imposed at 30% on the gains from properties disposed of within five years, and 5% for disposals in the sixth and subsequent years.

Terence Wong: "Catalysts Are Emerging For S-Chips"

Source: http://www.nextinsight.net/index.php/story-archive-mainmenu-60/919-2013/7880-terence-wong-qcatalysts-are-emerging-for-s-chipsq

Excerpts from today's OSK-DMG report

S-chips have been severely battered since 2008 following a series of corporate governance/accounting irregularity issues, and have yet to recover.

The segment made an attempt to pick up in 2011, but before it could get back on its feet, it was hammered by problems surrounding China Hongxing and China Gaoxian, two prominent China-based companies.

We see a game changer that may turn sentiment around. The recent tie-up between the Singapore Exchange (SGX) and the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) may just be the catalyst to spark interest in this battered group of 140 stocks.

SGX and CSRC announced that they will establish a direct listing framework for companies from China to list in Singapore.

We think that this will boost confidence in future S-chips that are looking to list in Singapore.

On another front, China’s stock market - which partially drives sentiment in S-chips - is starting to look interesting after having underperformed the other major markets over the past six years. In Sept 2012, regulators imposed a moratorium while rules were being drafted to curb price manipulation.

This move stalled close to 800 companies which had been ‘queuing up’ for a listing. Following China’s decision to end the 15-month freeze on lPO listings, there are expectations of a flood of new listings in 2014.

There are also talks that there could be as much as USD11bn in share sales in the first half. As such, liquidity is expected to return in a big way in 2014.


Some of the sectors that we like among the S-chips are Consumer, Infrastructure and Environment.

The first two sectors excited us in the past year, with our top picks being consumer playSino Grandness (BUY, TP SGD0.88) and railway supplier Midas Holdings (BUY, TPSGD0.75).

Sino Grandness has surged more than 3x since our upgrade in November 2012, becoming one of the market’s best performers.

While Midas didn’t do as well, its >20% stock price rally over the year was still respectable.

We think there is more to come from both stocks going forward. As it is the Chinese Government’s key priority to clean up the environment, the prospects of companies in this sector are looking very bright indeed.

Already, we have seen the stock price of SGX-listed China Environment (NR), a manufacturer of industrial waste gas equipment, surge more than 6x since its low in March 2013. We will be initiating coverage on this sector shortly.

All said, we would advise staying away from China property counters as a result of an explosion of upcoming IPOs in the mainland that is likely to soak up liquidity from the property market.

How to play this theme: Our S-chip favourites from 2013 should continue to perform well, with catalysts for both Sino Grandness (beverage unit gets approval to list in HK) and Midas (big railway orders).

Environment plays will feature strongly in 2014 and will become the sector to watch for the next few years.

Monday, December 23, 2013

秘技核心在于通过机械化操作克服人性弱点 - 胡立阳

Source:

秘技核心在于通过机械化操作克服人性弱点
来源:南方都市报

在长达3个多小时的演讲中,胡立阳向投资者透露了他的多个炒股秘技。这些秘技的核心就在于通过机械化操作来克服人性弱点,使自己在股市中变成"不正常的人"。
  
胡立阳说,正常人在股市中没法赚到钱。根据他在股市33年的经验,全球投资者都具有相同的无法克服的人性弱点。假如在20元买入一只股票,这只股票第二天涨到22元,会很高兴。第三天涨到23元,还是没有问题。问题就在第四天发生,当这只股票跌到22元,投资者会开始患得患失。最危险的第五天来了,股票跌到21.8元,几乎没有一个例外,投资者都会在这里选择卖掉,结果错过了赚几倍甚至数十倍的机会。为了克服人性的弱点,他总结了多个招数让投资者机械化操作。他说,虽然市场不是绝对的,这些招数不能说百分百准确,但这都是他根据大量数据长期统计出来的。如果能严格遵照执行,长期来看一定有益处。
  
封面联动

1 "进三退一"华尔滋法
高买低卖是股市中的铁律。如果做不到,那就每一交易要做到大赚小赔。因此,每购买一只股票就要将向下10%作为割肉点,向上30%作为盈利点。如这只股票20元,则26元作为盈利点,18元作为止损点,哪个点先到就卖哪个。没有达到"一定要把手捆起来"。根据他的统计,几乎所有好股票涨30%都会修整一下,所以休息一下以后再把它买回来也没关系。一只好股票如果跌了10%,就往往是出了问题,或者这只股票和投资者没有缘分,切莫强求。
  
2 农夫播种术
所有好股票涨势价格图都是大赚小赔。因此,在买一只股票的时候,资金量不要超过1/3.假如你最初购买这只股票以一手为单位,那么股价每往上涨3%就加一手,往下跌超过3%就减一手。一定要用相同的单位追加,切忌涨了3%的时候多追几手,结果头重脚轻从而被套。根据统计,在一般的多头行情下,每12只股票中总有1只能成倍增长,这种方法就是要留下好种子剔除坏种子。假如买了20只股票,只有1只成倍增长,用这种方法就能留下这1只,并及时剔除剩下的19只,最终这一只的盈利能盖过所有的损失甚至还要多。使用这种方法的时候,一定要以每天收盘价为准,然后在第二天一开市就以市价操作。这次A股市场从6000点跌到3000点,使用这种方法留下的种子不会发芽,但也不会大赔。当所有的种子都不发芽时,就证明不是播种子的好时候,应暂时退场。
  
3 短线操作
做短线一定要技术,并不赞成炒短线。如果非要炒,那么切记买进股票三天不赚钱就卖掉。因为根据统计,一个好股票绝对是每隔三天、两天就要创新高,绝对不可能停下来休息个三五天再创新高。如果买的股票每天都涨,突然第四天跌了一天,那么要不要卖?答案是只要跌幅不超过7%,就不要卖掉。但是如果第二天继续跌,则一定要卖掉。

4 牧羊术
研究股票要像养羊一样投入感情。研究的股票不要多,只看二三十只,不熟悉的不要买。熟悉之后判断这只股票是健康还是生病,就要把握三个基本原则:首先,跟大盘比较。如上证指数上涨150点,这只股票还是下跌1毛钱,证明这只股票“生病了”。其次,看成交量。如果这只股票每天成交量都萎靡不振,但突然有一天成交量大于过去6日均量的3倍以上,这就是股票上涨的前奏,然后再给它5个交易日,只要成交量能创新高,则可以毫不犹豫跟进,这就叫做“旱地拔葱”。再次,价格脱离常规。如果这只股票长期以来都在20元、21元来回振荡,有一天突然多涨1块钱,一定会大涨。

5 懒人操作术
会卖股票才是真本事。对于繁忙的上班族来说,想要不花太多时间也能赚钱,可以使用懒人操作术。即每周抽一个时间,随便选5只股票,并均设立10%止损位。过一周后进行统计,只留下涨得最好的第一名和第二名,其他全部卖掉。然后再随便补充三只股票,让数量达到5只,过一周后再如此操作。用这种方法就能强迫自己留下最好的股票。因为对绝大多数投资者来说,会卖掉已经赚钱的最好的股票,往往留下跌得最多的股票,以求“解套”,这是错误的做法。

6 地心引力指标
(30日移动平均线+72日移动平均线)/2就是大盘指数的“地心引力指标”。以此线为标准,涨过10%就跑,跌过10%就买入,准确率可达到95%.个股则因为有庄家相对麻烦。对于个股,也可以通过此方法划出“地心引力指标”,并同时配合成交量的“旱地拔葱”来作出判断。

7 1/2法
根据统计。如一只股票从30元开始上涨到60元,那么45元(即:(30+60)/2)就是股价的第一个强烈支撑点,如果45元支撑不住,意味着该股票走入弱势格局。第二道关卡则是37.5元,(即:(30+45)/2),一旦跌破则是熊的开始。个股如此,大盘也如此。一旦这只股票跌破第二道关卡,就要坚决出货。通过补仓摊低成本是不对的。反弹也可以通过此方法来判断。如60元的股票下跌到30元,则第一道反弹关卡是45元,若反弹超过45元还往上涨,就是强势反弹。第二道关口则是52.5元(即:(60+45)/2),如超过则进入牛市。虽然市场不是100%绝对,但长期来看1/2法非常有价值。

http://www.licaiabc.com.cn/Html/gushijingyan/0553041.html

BIMB Holdings - Acquisition Completed; Upgrade to BUY

Source: http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kltrader/43755.jsp

Deal completed. We are positive on the price that BIMB has paid for the remaining 49% stake in Bank Islam, which translates to a decent Sep 2013 P/BV of 1.8x for a bank that offers ROEs of 15-16%. Moreover, the deal is EPS accretive by about 10-11%. Fundamentals remain very much intact and we project a strong 2-year EPS CAGR of 29%, due in part to earnings accretion from the recent corporate move. Our SOP-derived TP is unchanged at MYR4.80 and with the recent weakness in share price, we take this opportunity to raise our call to a BUY, with a 14% upside to the stock.

BIMB has completed the purchase of the 49% stake in Bank Islam that it does not own for MYR2.86b (30.5% from Dubai Financial Group and 18.5% from Lembaga Tabung Haji). This is 3% lower than the top end pricing for the deal given that the transacted USD:MYR rate was MYR3.232 versus the upper limit of MYR3.35. The rights-cum-warrants raised MYR1.8b to fund 63% of the deal, while the balance of MYR1.0b has been covered by a sukuk issuance at a profit rate of 6.25%.

Pricing is decent. The deal prices Bank Islam at a Sep 2013 P/BV of 1.8x, which is decent relative to ROAEs of 15-16% for the bank.

Net profit upped 53-56% for FY14-15, with expectations that Bank Islam will account for 88% of group pretax profit in FY14. EPS accretion is projected to be a lower 10-11% due to the dilutive impact of the rights issue which contributed to a 40% enlargement in share capital.

ROEs jump to 18.6% for FY14 and FY15 from 14.5% previously, due to the write-off of the acquisition goodwill to reserves of MYR1.3b.

Overall, we are positive on BIMB prospects. We forecast aboveindustry financing growth of 16% in FY14 (vs industry of 9-10%), emanating primarily from growth in personal and mortgage financing. Asset quality remains impeccable with a gross NPF ratio of just 0.4% for personal financing and a group NPF ratio of 1.39% end-Sep 2013 is still below the industry average of 2%. What is encouraging as well is the group’s financing/deposit ratio of just 64%, which provides room for NIM management and ample liquidity to support topline growth.

Source: Maybank Research - 23 Dec 2013

勝利者國際評級上調

Source: http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/87342?tid=18

勝利者國際(SIGN,7246,主板消費品組)計劃以4千930萬令吉,購買巴生加埔一塊12.2英畝土地建新廠與新總部,並撥7千500萬令吉作為資本開銷,預期2015年竣工。

●分析

聯昌研究認為其脫售哥打白沙羅現有廠址,再在加埔購新地建新廠,顯示公司管理層對長遠成長前景充滿信心,給予“加碼”評級,建議趁低累積。

“在加埔購地,意味管理層對脫售現有哥打白沙羅廠址地段有信心,完成上述脫售後可獲淨現金7千790萬令吉或每股65仙,用於在加埔建新廠足足有餘。”

以現址7.3英畝地段與加埔的12.2英畝土地相比,面積大了約65%,作遷廠規劃意味管理層需要更大空間擴充。惟7千500萬令吉資本開銷,遠高於分析員預期,這包括達2千500萬令吉的建廠費。

勝利者國際脫售哥打白沙羅地段給美德集團(MEDAINC,5040,主板產業組),獲5千零40萬令吉現金和值2千480萬令吉的新建築。

“不過,有關脫售還需州當局的批准,以便把地段的工業用途,轉換為商業用。”

放眼競標6億訂單

目前的訂單達2億令吉,創史上新高,公司目前正競標6億令吉訂單。

分析員給予目標價2令吉63仙。

“過去一兩個月股價疲弱,提供機會累積該股,預期未來3至4年盈利增長強勁。”(星洲日報/財經)

每年料獲10億新訂單‧金輪重見曙光

Source: http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/87397?tid=18

(吉隆坡20日訊)金輪企業(KIMLUN,5171,主板建筑組)歷經沉悶的2013年後,來年盈利料重見曙光,分析員對該公司攫取新合約能力充滿信心,每年約10億令吉新訂單入袋料不成問題。

馬銀行研究在出席該公司舉行的分析員匯報會後,直言對金輪前景感到樂觀,首先是因為柔佛美迪尼和巴生河流域地區產業發展活動恆溫,而且即使在完成4配1附加股送1憑單計劃後,該公司2014年每股盈利仍預料取得40%成長率。

“我們建議投資者認購該公司附加股,因其獻售價非常誘人,較理論除權價後折價高達38%,而且還附送免費憑單,該股目前以2014年9倍本益比交易,估值合理。”

馬銀行預測金輪企業未來兩年內,每年可攫獲價值11億令吉的新訂單,加上附加股計劃將讓該公司負債比減半至36.6%,前景可期。

大馬研究則認為,雖然建築領域多少受利空環繞,如成本上漲和產業市場放緩憂慮等,惟依然看好金輪企業保持柔佛地區建築業、甚至巴生河流域和新加坡捷運計劃的強力候選人身份。

“該公司目前持有22億令吉訂單在手,足以保障未來兩年盈利能見度,短期潛在新訂單還包括新加坡湯森路捷運線價值1億新元的隧道相關工程,長期來說則相信繼續自大馬捷運計劃中受惠。”

賽城產業訂購率70%

另外,金輪企業在賽城進行的首項產業發展計劃,至今取得70%訂購率,擁有1億3千萬令吉未入賬銷售在手,而該公司放眼明年下半年在柔佛美迪尼推介的4億4千600萬令吉居家辦公室和零售產業計劃,也成功躲開政府落實的打房措施,如海外買家100萬令吉限制和產業盈利稅等。

為此,安聯研究上調金輪企業未來2年財測26.5%和28.6%,以反映產業計劃貢獻和訂單填補速度強於預期。

豐隆研究補充,金輪企業製造部門表現符合預期,柔佛工廠已經達到100%使用率,新那旺新廠將協助填補未來需求,尤其是新加坡捷運計劃,雖然新廠因地理距離而導致貨流成本可能增加,惟相信仍有利可圖。

(星洲日報/財經)

纳西尔:隆市办公楼过剩 100层独立世代应暂停

Source: http://www.nanyang.com/node/587627?tid=462

(吉隆坡21日讯)联昌国际(CIMB,1023,主板金融股)总执行长拿督斯里纳西尔指出,国内办公楼出现供应过剩的现象,尤其在大吉隆坡内,或出现办公楼产业泡沫。
纳西尔接受《The Edge》财经周刊访问时指出,政府应重新考虑一些大型产业计划,暂停部分供应,以抑制办公楼产业价格。
过度参与产业发展
无论如何,他认为,住宅产业领域并没有出现泡沫,只是办公楼领域面对问题。
他解释,看看城内即将完成的办公楼计划,单是吉隆坡中环(KL Sentral)的办公楼空间供应,就高达1000万平方尺,这还不包括敦拉萨国际贸易中心(TRX)、双溪毛糯,及八打灵再也中环(PJ Sentral)。
纳西尔发表对于2014年展望时说,我国办公楼市场发生了机制失败,政府过度参与产业发展计划。
“抑制办公楼产业价格,不需要任何措施,政府只需要停止供应。”
他还说,其中一个最应该暂停的工程就是国民投资机构(PNB)的100层大楼-独立世代计划(Warisan Merdeka)。
“我根本无法想像到底这些办公楼的需求来自哪儿?我强烈呼吁政府暂停一些供应。”
政府须向迪拜吸取教训
纳西尔认为,政府不应该过度参与产业发展,必须向迪拜等国家吸取教训。
目前的新办公楼计划(尤其在大吉隆坡内),目标都是同一批使用者群,他说,假设100层大楼被填满,其他的办公楼会出现怎样的局面?

Up Close and Personal with Robert Swan

Source: http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2013/12/21/Up-Close-and-Personal-with-Robert-Swan-the-first-person-to-have-walked-to-the-North-and-South-poles.aspx

Published: Saturday December 21, 2013 MYT 12:00:00 AM
Updated: Saturday December 21, 2013 MYT 12:53:04 PM

Up Close and Personal with Robert Swan

   
“YOU’RE going to fail” and “You’re going to die” was the reaction Robert SwanOBE often received when he spoke of his dream to walk to the South Pole.
Everyone knows the power words possess, in encouraging or discouraging a person.
If Swan had listened to them, he probably would have never realised his dream.
Instead, he ignored the negativity, and concentrated on the positive, which turned out for the better really, because he became the first man in history to walk to both the North and South Poles.
Now polar explorer and environmental leader, Swan tells StarBizWeek how important it is to never forget the dream.
A leader without a dream is nothing.
Swan was impeccably dressed in a dark suit and blue tie but stood out with a bright yellow backpack swung across his shoulders.
Once seated, it only took but a moment to realise he had pink polka-dotted socks on.
“I just want to keep people guessing about life in general. They don’t expect a polar explorer to wear pink socks,” he laughs.
While the world marvelled, Swan saw his achievement as a responsibility.
Experiencing first-hand the effects of climate change, he more than willingly took up a 50-year mission to preserve the Antarctica by promoting recycling, renewable energy and sustainability.
Swan is now 22 years into that mission. He formed 2041 with the aim to continue protecting the last great wilderness on Earth so that it can never be exploited.
It is in the year 2041 that the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty, which prohibits drilling and mining, could potentially be modified or amended.
The greatest threat to our planet is the belief that someone else will save it, he told attendees at the Leadership Energy Summit Asia 2013 (LESA) held earlier this month.
“I think my passion for it comes from the sense of being a survivor. I’ve seen what’s happening and we need to react to that,” he says.
Swan was among the illustrious line-up of speakers featured at LESA.
It was organised by the Iclif Leadership and Governance Centre, a non-profit organisation under Bank Negara, to help individuals find their purpose in life and values.
The dream
Don’t forget your dream, Swan cautions. “I see people charging through life, they forget their dream, and then one day they wake up and ask – so that was it?” he says.
Swan was first inspired to walk to both poles when he saw a feature film on Antarctica at the age of 11.
Others laughed at his dream. His siblings encouraged him to “just do it”.
“You’d end up with houses, mortgages, wives, children, and you’d never do it,” they warned him.
His family also helped put things into perspective for him.
“They didn’t make a big deal about it. My family always helped me in that what I was doing was amazing but someone else in a slum in India is probably having a harder time than I’ve ever had,” he says.
The fact that it has only been about a hundred years since Antarctica was first explored only further intrigued Swan. “I just got inspired by this place that nobody owned and there was peace there,” he says.
He and his team named their first expedition to the South Pole “In the Footsteps of Scott”, after Robert Scott’s Terra Nova Expedition in early 20th century.
Scott and his four comrades made it to the South Pole, but died on their journey back due to a combination of exhaustion, starvation and extreme cold.
Swan’s journey to the South Pole began in 1984.
“Imagine walking for 70 days, nine hours each day. There are three of you carrying 180kg. There are no radio communications with the outside world and you are navigating using the sun,” he describes.
In those 70 days, he had lost 33kg. His eyes also changed colour due to prolonged exposure to the hole in the ozone layer.
It was hard and actually pointless to walk to both poles, he laughs. But standing at the South geomagnetic pole, Swan and his team could not be more proud of what they had achieved.
By 1992, he became the first person to walk to both the North and South Poles.
The coldest day Swan has ever experienced is –72 degrees Celsius, at temperatures where sweat turns into ice.
One thing he is sure of is that he does not enjoy having ice in his underpants, he says.
“I hate being cold, more than most people, but you prepare yourself by not going for the most modern thing. The latest technology is not always the best. We looked at the technology of 100 years ago, those used by Inuit people. So it wasn’t always the most modern but a mixture of old and new technologies,” he says.
Swan and his team had to undergo a strict and intense physical preparation before they started on the longest unassisted march to the South Pole.
“Our physical preparation was interestingly not only to get fit but also to be fat. The best way to carry food was on you. We were eating a huge amount of calories,” he says.
International        expedition
He led the first corporate expedition to Antarctica in March 2003 and has since taken over 770 people from 58 nations there to experience the continent’s ecosystem, and learn what can be done to protect it.
In March next year, he and the 2041 team will lead the International Antarctica Expedition (IAE) 2014, comprising corporate leaders, environmentalists, entrepreneurs, teachers and young people, meeting at Ushuaia, Argentina and then travelling together to the Antarctic peninsula.
Three Malaysians were selected as winners of the PRU4Antarctica search, beating some 300 applicants, to represent Malaysia.
Swan will be returning to the South Pole in 2015, starting his journey at the South Pole and walking to the coast. Notably, his son, who will be 21 then, will be joining him on this journey.
The project, or “the return journey”, will entail Swan and his team relying solely on renewable energy to survive.
“In my business you’re old when you’re 35. Thirty years on, I’m going to do the same. I have to look after my joints, back and knees, in a whole different way. Interestingly enough, cycling is a very good way to get strong and fit because it doesn’t put so much impact on your body,” he says.
He hopes he is inspirational to people who are in their 50s and 60s, that they too can be fit. “If you look after yourself you’re as young as you feel,” he says.
What is also special is that by the time Swan and his son fly out for the expedition, his mother will be 100 years old!
The balancing act
“When you live like I live, it’s not very normal. I live the whole year out of a suitcase, even while I’m at home. That’s the way it is,” he shrugs.
He knew that when he got married, his wife would have to be supportive of his cause, even if it meant being apart for periods of time.
“I’m married to a special person who would probably kill me if I’m spending too much time with her. You can’t feel bad about how you live,” he says.
His mother taught him to not expect his son to follow in his footsteps. “It was him that came to me. If I had pushed him, I don’t think he would be coming on the expedition in 2015. Don’t push your children to do what you think they should do,” he says.
He adds that his mother has been a big influence in his life. “When I was 16, one day, she sat me down at a station somewhere and told me two things,” he says.
She said: “I’m going to try and be your friend, not your mother. But occasionally I might act like your mother because it’ll be hard not to. And secondly, if you want to make all these dreams happen, understand that women have the power.”
He admits that his mother is right – women are much more sustainable than men.
“Out of 80 people coming on the March expedition, 60 are women. You’ve got to see the results, and they are that women deliver, hence my mother was right. And I respect that. I’m in the survival business and I’ve learnt that women are tougher and more resilient,” he says.
Swan has hope for the future. His advice to the next generation is to be brave to join businesses and make changes. “You’re not going to make a difference by hugging a tree. Be part of an industry and make changes from within,” he says.