Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Malakoff Corporation Berhad - Cushioned By TBP Disputes Settlement

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Malakoff reported higher 3QFY17 net profit of RM64.2m (+24.6% YoY) mainly due to compensation received from settlement of dispute between Tanjung Bin Power (TBP) and IHI Corporation Japan (IHI), the manufacturer and supplier of equipment and parts for boilers at TBP. However, this was partially offset by higher tax expenses due to under-provision of prior years’ tax. Excluding the compensation from IHI (estimated at about RM100m), under-provision of prior years’ taxation, net foreign exchange loss and one off insurance claim received by Kapar Energy Ventures (KEV) amounting to RM20m in 2QFY17, 9MFY17 core net earnings of RM218.5m was within ours but below consensus expectations at 74% and 66% respectively. Our earnings forecasts remain unchanged. There was no dividend declared for the period under review. Malakoff is currently trading at FY18F EV/EBITDA of 7x, compared to its peers at 10x. We maintain our Trading Buy call on Malakoff at target price of RM1.29 based on DCF-valuation.
  • 3QFY17 revenue (+20.3% YoY). Despite receiving lower capacity payment for Segari Energy Ventures (SEV) from July 2017, following the revision of its extended Power Purchase Agreement (PPA), Malakoff reported higher revenue of RM1.8bn during the quarter (vs RM1.5bn in 3QFY16). This was mainly due to higher applicable coal price which improved the revenue contribution by its coal-fired power plant of TBP and Tanjung Bin Energy (TBE). YTD 9MFY17 revenue increased 21.7% YoY to RM5.3bn mainly due to 9-months contribution by TBE, compared to 6-months in 9MFY16.
  • 3QFY17 net profit (+24.6% YoY). Its net profit for the quarter increased to RM64.2m from RM51.5m in 3QFY16 mainly due to one-off settlement received by TBP relating to previous operational issues, but partially offset by higher income tax expenses (+48.3% YoY) due to a one-time tax charge pursuant to the under-provision of prior years’ tax. Excluding the estimated IHI compensation and under-provision of prior years’ tax, net forex loss, insurance claim received by KEV in 2QFY17 and insurance claim on rotor replacement in 2QFY16, its core net profit for 9MFY17 declined by 3% YoY to RM218.5m, compared to RM225.4m for 9MFY16.
Source: PublicInvest Research - 22 Nov 2017

UOA Development Berhad - Resilient Earnings

Author: sectoranalyst | Publish date: Wed, 22 Nov 2017, 09:11 AM

9MFY17 earnings within expectations
Resilient earnings in 9MFY17
9MFY17 new property sales at RM924.2m
Expect South Link project to enjoy good take up rate
Upgrade to BUY (from Neutral) with a unchanged TP of RM2.80

9MFY17 earnings within expectations. UOA Development Berhad (UOADEV) 9MFY17 core net income of RM299.4m came in within expectations, making up 74% and 78% of our and consensus full year forecast respectively.

Resilient earnings in 9MFY17. UOADEV’s 3QFY17 core net income fell 45%qoq to RM90.4m as earnings normalized from high base in 2QFY17 which was boosted by earnings recognition from South View Serviced Apartments (completed in 2QFY17). On yearly basis, 3QFY17 core net income climbed 65%yoy, bringing cumulative earnings to RM299.4m (+8.8%yoy). The higher earnings were driven by progressive recognition of the development projects from Southbank Residence, United Point, Sentul Point, Danau Kota Suite Apartment. Besides, sales of completed projects (Desa Green and Vertical Business Suites) also helped in earnings growth. Meanwhile, 3QFY17 unbilled sales stood at RM1.41b (58% contributed by United Point while 38% contributed by Sentul Point), flattish against unbilled sales of RM1.39b in 2QFY17, providing earnings visibility of 1.4 years.

9MFY17 new property sales at RM924.2m. UOADEV registered new property sales of RM311.2m in 3QFY17 (3QFY16 new sales: RM538m), flattish against new sales of RM309.8m in 2QFY17. That brought cumulative new sales in 9MFY17 to RM924.2m, lower than new sales of RM1.15b in 9MFY16. Recall that last year new sales were boosted by Sentul Point (GDV: RM1.5b) and United Point (GDV: RM1.5b). Meanwhile, bulk of the new sales in 9MFY17 was contributed by Sentul Point (44%) and United Point (41%) due to on-going launches of the two projects. Note that UOADEV launched the final blocks of the two projects in June/July. The cumulative new sales in 9MFY17 is slightly below our expectation after it makes up 64% of our full year new sales target of RM1.45b as new launches were scheduled towards year end.

Expect South Link project to enjoy good take up rate. Preview of South Link (GDV: RM550m) in Bangsar South has commenced while official launch is expected to take place by year-end. Note that South Link Lifestyle Apartments comprises 1,422 units of freehold serviced apartments with two storey of retail. We expect take up rate of South Link to be decent in view of the prime location of the project in Bangsar South and affordable indicative price per unit starting from ~RM350k. Meanwhile, other launches in the pipeline include Desa Commercial Centre (GDV: RM300m), Bandar Tun Razak development in Cheras (GDV: RM300m) and South Point in Bangsar South (GDV: RM220m).

Upgrade to BUY (from Neutral) with an unchanged TP of RM2.80. We are revising our FY17 sales target from RM1.45b to RM1.25b as sales contribution from South Link is expected to kick in from FY18 onwards. Correspondingly, our earnings forecast for FY17/18 were revised downwards marginally by 1.5%/2.5%. Our target price for UOADEV is unchanged at RM2.80, based on 10% discount to RNAV. Nevertheless, we are upgrading UOADEV to BUY (from Neutral) as the recent weakness in share price makes dividend yield of UOADEV more attractive. At last closing price, dividend yield is estimated at 6.1% based on our dividend forecast of 15sen/share. Balance sheet of UOADEV is healthy at net cash position while property sales prospect will continue to be underpinned by launches of urban-based affordable priced properties.

Source: MIDF Research - 22 Nov 2017

Supermax Corporation Berhad - Refurbished Old Production Lines Boosted Revenue

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  • 1QFY18 earnings above expectations
  • Refurbished production lines boosted revenue
  • FY18-19F earnings forecast revised up by +17.2% and 5.4% respectively
  • Upgrade to BUY with a revised TP of RM2.42 per share
Above expectations. Supermax’s 1QFY18 earnings came in at RM27.9m which is above our and consensus’ full year expectations, accounting for 29.6% and 29% of our and street’s full year earnings forecasts respectively. During the quarter, revenue and PATANCI climbed by +16.0% and +42.8% year-over-year respectively. However, on a quarterly sequential basis, revenue declined marginally by -0.2% while PATANCI climbed by >100%.
Refurbished production lines boosted revenue. Supermax’s revenue recorded an increase for both year-over-year as well as quarter-over-quarter due to: (i) a more favourable exchange rate for USD vs MYR during the quarter which averaged at about RM4.26 per USD vs RM4.05 in the same quarter last year; (ii) higher output rising from revamp work on its older production lines and; (iii) higher average selling prices (ASPs). In addition, earnings climbed by >100%yoy in 1QFY18 due to improved demand which is partly due to the switch from vinyl to rubber gloves. This is a result of the regulatory compliance that China has to adhere to under Paris Climate Agreement. Due to that, PATANCI margin has also improved to 8.9% from 7.3% in 1QFY17.
FY18-19F earnings forecasts revised up by +17.2% and +5.4%. We are revising our earnings forecasts for FY18-19F up by +17.2% and +5.4% respectively as we lower our operating expenses assumptions, expecting lesser spending on refurbishing older production lines going forward. Key risks to our earnings would most likely be: (i) sudden surge in raw materials price; (ii) strong appreciation of Ringgit and; (iii) continued delay in capacity expansion.
Upgrade to BUY with a revised Target Price (TP) of RM2.42. Post-earnings revision and rolling over our valuation base year to FY19, we are upgrading our recommendation on Supermax to a BUY (previously Neutral) with a revised TP of RM2.42 per share (from RM1.94 previously). Our TP is derived via pegging our FY19F EPS of 17.3sen to an unchanged PER19 of 14x, which is its 5-year average PER. Going forward, the strong demand for rubber gloves originating from the switch from vinyl gloves to rubber gloves will persist – one of the key revenue drivers for the company. Additionally, we take comfort in the fact that management is committed in revamping its older production lines in absence of the capacity from the delayed lines in Plant 10 and 11. Furthermore, the current stable currency environment will be beneficial to glove manufacturers by providing visibility on both revenue and expenses.
Source: MIDF Research - 22 Nov 2017

Serba Dinamik Holdings Berhad - Achieving and Progressing

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Serba Dinamik (Serba)’s 9MFY17 registered revenue of RM1.9bn (+>100.0% YoY) with earnings at RM228.2m (+100.0% YoY) meeting 87% and 84% of ours’ and consensus estimates respectively. The better performance YTD is attributed to stronger activities in operation and maintenance (O&M) and engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning (EPCC) divisions. We continue to maintain our Outperform recommendation with a higher TP of RM3.00 (previously RM2.85) based on our 12x PE multiple to our revised FY18F EPS of 25.0 sen. Our earnings adjustment account for new contracts and additional replenishment assumptions, as the Group’s activities have been robust and exceeded what we had previously estimated. An interim dividend of 1.5sen was also declared, in line with our dividend estimates for FY17F which would translate to a yield of 2.2%.
  • 3QFY17. Revenue registered RM653.3m (+27.7% YoY, +0.6% QoQ), with earnings at RM68.0m (+51.3% YoY, -17.9% QoQ). Middle East region contributed a total of 56.7% to revenue this quarter, mainly from O&M-related projects, from Qatar RM150.9m, despite the recent Gulf crisis. Other Middle East contributors include Bahrain, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia. The weaker earnings recorded QoQ is attributed to lower recognition from construction of the Kota Marudu hydropower plant coupled with the lower activities in UAE from poorer weather conditions.
  • O&M. For the current quarter, the division continued to be the main revenue contributor (86.9%) driven by activities from South East Asia, Middle East region as well as higher activities resulting from an additional contract in Turkmenistan. EBIT margin improved marginally to 17.8% from 17.1% QoQ.
  • EPCC. For the current quarter, the division contributed 12.9% to revenue from operations in the UAE through contracts with New Thunder Technical Services, and domestically through the Kuala Terengganu water treatment plant construction via Serba’s associated company Konsortium Amanie JV Sdn Bhd.
  • Maintain Outperform. We continue to like Serba Dinamik supported by its core activities in O&M and EPCC, driven by its expansion into international markets which, by its track record, has historically seen c.80% of its contracts renewed. The Group’s robust RM10.0bn bid book for the next 3 years will comprise of c.70% O&M contracts and c.30% of EPCC. Our adjusted revenue and earnings estimates higher between 5% and 6% are to account for further contract replenishments and the newly established chlor-alkali plant in Tanzania, highlighting further the Group’s plans to move towards the asset ownership business model. Our Outperform call is supported by our TP of RM3.00 pegged to a 12x PE multiple, based on our revised FY18F EPS of 25.0 sen.
Source: PublicInvest Research - 22 Nov 2017

Lionind – Top 4 Rebar Manufacturer in Malaysia (Part 2)

Author: davidtslim | Publish date: Wed, 22 Nov 2017, 10:18 AM

As discussed in my Lionind's part 1 article (, Lionind has involved in a few businesses like steel manufacturing, trading, property development, distribution of lubricants and transportation. Let us have a look on 5 years group financial highlights as below:

Source: Annual report 2017

Overall, the Lionind group posted a profit before tax of 107.4 mil against a loss of 852.5 mil a year ago which included impairment losses on receivables of RM607.0 million and property, plant and equipment of RM193.1 million. The key here is significant reduction of impairment in FY2017 vs 2016. Let us see the group whole year cash flow statement as below:

Source: Annual report 2017

From the figure above, the effect of share of losses from associate companies (Parkson etc) is reducing from RM35.9 mil to RM9.2 mil from 2016 to 2017. In fact, these are on-paper losses where they were added back as positivecash flow in the cash flow statement.

In short, with minimum (or zero) future impairment and good rebar average selling price in Q4, Lionind may improve its FY2018 earning (estimated profit of RM160mil to RM180 mil or EPS of 26 sen for forward 12 months).

For Lionind future 1 year prospect, let see the following statement from latest Lionind 2017 annual report as below:

Source: Annual report 2017

The FY2017 profit of RM76 mil from long steel products business is just contributed by only one plant in Bukit Raya. The good news is its Johor plant (ANTARA) has resumed operation in Sept 2017 and Banting plant maybe resume operation in Nov. This information signified Lionind future profit will be contributed by 2 plants (if include Banting will be 3 plants).

As some of you may aware, there was big impairment in FY2016 on property, plant and equipment (PPE) from the closure of Johor Antara and Banting plants. Due to Antara plant already reopened in Sept, I expect there might be some reversal of impairment in coming quarter result. If there is really some reversal of impairment, the on-paper accounting profit (non-cash) of Lionind will be improved.

A lot of you may only aware Lionind owns a loss making Parkson associate company. Actually many of you may not notice that Lionind also got a profit making subsidiary listed company (Lionind holding 74% shares) called Lion Forest Industries Berhad. Lion Forest Berhad (Lionfib) operates in four segments: building materials and steel products, petroleum, lubricants and automotive products (tire and others). Others business of Lionfib include investment holding, provision of transportation services, sale and distribution of motor vehicles. Let see the fundamental data of Lionfib as below:

Source: (Lionfib just released result on 21 Nov)

Again, the losses in 2016 in Lionfib are mainly due to impairment of receivables from Megasteel and Lion DRI. From FY16’s annual report, the amount due from Megasteel has been fully impaired (RM382mil). Lionfib has reported profitable results in 2017 and Q1’2018 in the absent of impairment.

Lionfib is a net cash company with cash in hand of RM99.6 mil with total borrowings of RM23.4 mil. Currently Lionfib is in net cash position of 76.1 mil which is equivalent to 33 sen per share. FYI, Lionfib currently trading at 78 sen.

What is the catalyst of the coming quarter for Lionfib? Lionfib’s whollyowned subsidiary company, Lion AMB has completed sales of its entire 20% equity interest in Suzuki Motorcycle Malaysia Sdn Bhd for a cash consideration of RM17.3 million. The Disposal was completed on 14 September 2017. Lionfib may record a one-off gain (RM10.3 mil) from this disposal which may benefit Lionind which controlling 74% of shares of Lionfib. Let see the Lionfib latest Q1’18 report as below:

Source: Lionfib Q1’18 report

Lionind will share this disposal gain (under exceptional item) of about RM7.6 mil (74% share)

Other than this one-off gain, the cash flow of Lionfib maybe can further improve due to there is big amount of receivable owning by holding company Lionind (not profitable and net cash) as below:

Source: Lionfib Q1’18 report

Remember Lionind cash flow and future profitability improving a lot in 2017. As a result, there is a possibility Lionind may reduce its debt owes to Lionfib in 2018.

Lionind Key Financial Ratio

Before we go to the key financial data of Lionind, I wish to show you the total treasury shares of Lionind as below:

Source: Annual report 2017

Lionind held 37.1 mil treasury shares which purchased at an average price of 35.5 sen (from 13.19/37.1). Remember current price of Lionind is RM1.43 which indicates that the treasury share has an on paper profit of RM1.2 per share which can translate to RM45.2 mil. If Lionind short of cash, it can release some of its treasury share to open market (market value of the treasury share is RM57.8 mil).

What are the treasury shares?

Treasury shares are kept in the company's treasury and are not out in the open market.

What are the advantages and disadvantages of treasury shares for both the company and for the investors in the company?


1.Improves Shareholder Value

One of the benefits of owning treasury stock is that the company can improve the shareholder value. When a company buys back stock it does not necessarily change the value of the company, but it does change the number of outstanding shares. For example, when calculating EPS or PE, the profit will be divided by a smaller total outstanding number of shares (mean EPS or PE will be higher due to EPS and PE calculations exclude treasury shares)

2.Shareholder Perception

When a company engages in a stock buyback to increase treasury stock, this give a signal to other investors that the company views the share price at that time is undervalue. In addition, another signal to investor of share buy back is the company has excess cash.


1.Tie Up Cash

The disadvantage of treasury share is it will tie up your company's cash. If your company hold onto too many treasury shares, you cannot access the money that have tied up in treasury shares.

Let see some key financial data of Lionind as table below:

Lionind (12-month up to June 17 result)

Lionind(upcoming Q1’18 result)






? expect to improve below 6.5



? expect to improve to 23 sen



? expect to improve

Net profit margin (%)


? expect to improve

Cash & Equivalents



Total debt



Net Cash


? expect to improve



? expect to improve

Debt to equity ratio



Price/Free Cash Flow


? expect to improve

One can see Lionind has reasonable PE (9.75 at price of RM1.43) and good cash flow. The PE is expected to further improve to below 6.5 and cash flow will be improved with higher profit (refer to my lionind part 1 article) in the coming quarter result (expected to be released on 23 or 24 Nov).

Effect on Lionind for Parkson Coming Quarter Result

As some of you may aware, Parkson Retail Asia reported a loss of Singapore dollars 12.9 mil on 14 Nov 2017. FYI, Parkson Malaysia is a holding company which its subsidiary East Crest International, holds 68% of Parkson Retail Asia.

Meanwhile, Parkson China (s listed co in HK as the name of Parkson Retail Group Limited) reported a loss of RMB22.6 mil on 15 Nov. Parkson Holding berhad holding 55% share of Parkson Retails Group Limited.

Estimated Total Parkson loss (Asia+China) = 40mil X 0.68 + 13.85mil X 0.55 = RM35 mil

(RM40mil is converted from Sing Dollar 12.9mil, RM13.85mil is converted from RMB22mil)

Due to Lionind directly and indirectly hold Parkson of 23.2%, the sharing of Parkson loss for Lionind is as below:

Estimated Share of Loss = RM35mil X 0.232 = RM8.12 mil

Anyway, there will be one-off disposal gain from its subsidiary company (Lionfib) for its Suzuki motorcycle business which can offset part of the losses of Parkson (one-off gain of RM7.6 mil for Lionind 74% of shares).

My estimation for Lionind coming quarter profit around RM60 mil in part Lionind part 1 article before consideration of Parkson’s loss. Conservatively (assume no major impairment from associate companies), I expect Lionind should reported RM54 to RM60 mil profit in coming Nov result. This is just partial contribution from its ANTARA plant from Sept 2017. The profit of Lionind in Q2’18 (Oct-Dec) may have higher visibility in view of full contribution of Antara’s plant and also partial contribution of Banting plant.

Asia Steel Outlook

The online data show that China dominates the global steel market producing and consuming roughly 50% of all steel globally. Currently, there is limited incentive for increasing the upstream capacity in steel in china. In fact, China actively reducing its capacity under its “supply-side reform” program. This program mainly aims to cut China steel producers production capacity by half in winter season. Let see one of the news reported this production cut as below:

Consolidation in steel industries is a theme both in Europe and China to strengthen their competitiveness. In Europe, I can notice that the announced plans by ArcelorMittal to merge with ILVA, and Thyssenkrupp to merge with Tata. In China, I can notice the merger of Baosteel and Wuhan Iron and Steel.

In short, the steel industry consolidation in China and Uerope will result in the reduciton of steel supply.

Malaysia government also started to urge industry to consider consolidation. Let see the recent news as below:

Malaysia Rebar Industry Outlook

First, let us revisit Malaysia rebar price in Nov according to MITI data as below:

Source: MITI_Weekly_Bulletin (Oct and Nov)

Let us also check the international scrap iron (Lionind and Masteel raw materials) from the MITI data as below:

Source: MITI_Weekly_Bulletin (Oct and Nov)

Let us revisit the China rebar price which normally may affect our local rebar price as below:


Let me just summarize what are the positive factors that can drive the rebar industry as below:

1. Raw material (International scrap iron) price dropping from USD380 to USD310.

2. RMUSD rate appreciation (4.14 now) in Nov which implies that rebar players stand to have lower import cost for their raw materials and possible to have some forex gain.

3. Local rebar price stabilize at RM2450 per ton

4. China rebar price is on uptrend and recent price has been gone up to RMB4100++. High china rebar price will make local rebar price maintain at RM2400++ or above and provide some export opportunities.

5.Specifically, Lionind which possesses the largest production capacity in Malaysia has restarted its Antara plant stand to benefit from lower material cost and stable rebar average selling price.

Let me have a SWOT analysis on lionind as below:

SWOT analysis (S-strengths, W-weaknesses, O-opportunities, and T-threats)



1.Largest production capacity, utilization rate still low

2.Lowest PE among top 4 rebar players

3.Net Cash company

4.Good cash flow generation

5.No dilution from warrant or loan stock.

6.Lower transportation cost due to its factories are strategically located in central and southern areas

1.Loss from Parkson

2.High payables

3.No dividend since 2014



1.Malaysia rebar safeguard tax for 3 years to reduce import from China

2.High Rebar price from July to Nov 2017.

3.China production cut in winter season

4.A lot of infrastructure projects running in 2017 and 2018 which provide demands for rebar.

1.High Graphite Electrode price

2.High scrap metal price

3.Higher transportation cost due to higher fuel price in recent two months

4.Slow down in property which may reduce rebar consumption


1. Lionind’s associate company (Parkson) operation still in loss making as per reported in the latest Parkson Retails Asia and Parkson China. There will be share of loss from Parkson but based on my calculation is loss is about RM8 mil+ which may not affect much of its profitable rebar business. In fact, the loss maybe offset by one-off disposal gain from Suzuki Motorcycle business.

2. My estimation of Linind coming quarter earnings of EPS of 7-8 sen is still likely to happen even in the event of Parkson’s loss.

3. Lionind has restarted its Antara plant stand to benefit from lower material cost and stable rebar average selling price. It also plant to restart its Banting plant which may further increase its production to reap higher profit in current market.

4. There is a possibility of reversal of impairment in coming 1 or 2 quarter in view of Lionind has restarted is Antara and plan to restart its Banting plant (which impaired in previous financial years)

5. RM to USD rate shows appreciation (4.14 now) in Nov which can help Lionind to lower down their raw material import price and has some forex gain (some of its loan is in USD).

6. High steel (rebar) price in China should be sustainable due to their government order to cut their production by half in winter season (4 months). The high china rebar price may help local rebar price and provide export opportunity for Lionind and other 3 rebar players to South East Asia countries.

If you interested on my analysis report, please contact me at

You can get my latest update on share analysis at Telegram Channel ==>


This writing is based on my own assumptions and estimations. It is strictly for sharing purpose, not a buy or sell call of the company.

Supermax Q1 earnings jump nearly 43% to RM28m

KUALA LUMPUR: Glove maker Supermax Corporation Bhd
recorded a 42.7% jump in its earnings to RM27.90mil in the first quarter ended Sept 30, 2017 – boosted by improved efficiency and productivity – and it remained upbeat on global demand for both natural rubber and nitrile gloves.

It announced on Tuesday the earnings rose from RM19.53mil a year ago while earnings per share were 4.19 sen compared with 2.89 sen.

“Profitability has improved owing to efforts taken to improved efficiency and productivity, including the refurbishment of the older lines and streamlining of work processes,” it said.

In terms of profitability, the group recorded earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) margins of 17.9% and profit before tax margins of 13%.

Revenue during the quarter rose 15.9% to RM312mil from RM269mil a year ago on higher output recorded from refurbishment done, higher average selling prices in response to increased raw material prices as well as a stronger US dolalr versus the ringgit.

“Global demand for both natural rubber and nitrile gloves remains strong with healthcare awareness continuing to rise, increasing regulation of the healthcare sector and ever higher healthcare spending in both the public and private sectors driving demand growth,” it said.

Supermax said these positive factors continue to augur well for the company and the industry as a whole.

It also pointed out the Chinese Government's concerted efforts to clamp down on the vinyl glove industry in China has also proven to be a boon for the natural rubber and nitrile glove producers as demand has shifted to them.

“The clamp down is due to the highly polluting nature of vinyl glove plants which do not comply with China's environmental regulations.

“In line with our continuous improvement efforts, we are refurbishing, rebuilding and modernising our older manufacturing plants to gain maximum efficiency in our production capabilities,” said Supermax.


Tuesday, November 21, 2017

[转贴] 新時代的經濟戰略 平台壟斷(一)

Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Fri, 17 Nov 2017, 09:52 AM
作者:Grahamites | 2017 / 11 / 17
文章來源:GuruFocus | 圖片來源:Luby

“谷歌 (Google,GOOGL)、臉書 (Facebook,FB)、Snapchat、Tinder、阿里巴巴 (Alibaba,BABA) 和 Uber 這些公司,除了市場份額不斷成長之外,有沒有其他的共同點呢?它們都是平台,這種新型態的商業模式,快速地佔據全球的經濟”—艾力克斯・莫亞澤德 (Alex Moazed) /尼可拉斯・詹森 (Nicholas Johnson)。

最近有一個朋友給了我一本書,這是一個相當棒的禮物。我相當地享受閱讀這本書的時光。這本書的書名是《現代化壟斷-主宰 21 世紀的經濟戰略,暫譯(Modern Monopolies: What It Takes to Dominate the 21st Century Economic)》,它的作者是艾力克斯・莫亞澤德和尼可拉斯・詹森。

有一些讀者可能會注意到在過去的兩年間,我寫了相當多有關於網路公司的文章,提到了一些公司,像是阿里巴巴、臉書、京東 (,JD)、Priceline(PCLN) 以及騰訊 (Tencent,TCEHY) 。有一段時間我一直無法了解為什麼這些公司能夠成長得如此之快,財務上也有著不錯的表現。雖然我最終也了解了這些新型態公司的優點了,但是我仍然無法以一個有系統的方式來描述它們的相同性。莫亞澤德和詹森的書作到了這一點。我們應該要將這本書視為必讀之作。我作了很多的筆記,在接下來的幾篇文章當中,我會和大家分享。今天的這篇文章著重的是一個大方向。


這些呈現線型成長的傳統商業模型,價值和企業的供應鍵呈同方向變動。他們透過生產商品或勞務的方式來創造價值,並將它們銷售給供應鍵下遊的消費者。線性成長的企業有兩種形式,一種是生產產品的公司,像是 Nike,另一種則是提供服務的公司,像是提供油品服務的公司 Jiff Lube。

呈現線性成長的企業,之所以能夠主宰 20 世紀,是因為它們在供應鍵當中是是十分有效率的,而供應鍵本身也是線性的。在網路開始發展之前,供應鍵是企業的主要競爭優勢之一。呈現線性成長的企業,專注於在內部創造價值,並向下轉手賣給消費者。價值從製造商或者是服務商移轉至消費者端。在這樣的商業模式之下,規模的成長,仰賴的是企業內部的投資和持續成長。但在網路的世界當中,規模來自於外部網路的成長。

最重要的一點是網路公司不一定要是平台公司。舉例來說,像是 就不是平台公司,而 eBay (EBAY) 則是平台公司。科技跟平台不一樣。有許多的軟體即服務公司雖然自己宣稱是平台,但它們實際上並不是。

平台是用來交換價值的,為了促進這些交易的發生。平台運用並創造了大型、能夠擴展,依不同消費者需求所能夠點閱的使用者和資源。平台創造了社群和市場,讓使用者能夠與它互動,並在其中進行交易。Ebay 並沒有透過供應鍵直接創造或控制存貨,但 則有這樣的情況。平台並未控制生產端,而是創造了連結。

呈現線性成長的企業,透過生產產品或者是提供勞務來創造價值,而平台則是透過建立連結以及“製造”交易來創造價值。例如通用汽車 (General Motors,GM) 製造汽車,而 Uber 則是在駕駛以及乘客之間“製造”交易。

Uber 並沒有真正提供乘車的服務,而是運用連結在駕駛和乘客之間創造價值。




有一些平台聚焦在減少交易成本,像是阿里巴巴,而其他類型的公司,像是蘋果 (Apple, AAPL) 則是提供一個基礎設施,讓它的用戶能夠在裡面創造價值。運用這樣的方式,平台可以劃分為交易平台和製造商平台。這兩者最大的不同在於前者主要是直接透過優化消費者以及生產者之間的交易來創造價值,而後者則是讓生產者能夠創造補充性的產品並在大眾之中廣為流傳。蘋果和谷歌的安卓 (Android) 是製造商平台,而阿里巴巴、Uber 和 Airbnb 則是交易平台。