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Thursday, November 14, 2019

RCE资本 估值低前景唱好

2019年11月13日
分析:马银行投行研究

目标价:1.80令吉
最新进展

RCE资本(RCECAP,9296,主板金融股)2020财年次季的净利,录得2715万8000令吉,按年上涨15.8%,派息每股5仙。

利息收入走高带动,让截至9月底的次季营业额年增8.02%,报7017万6000令吉。

累计首半年,营业额年升6.95%,报1亿3711万4000令吉;净赚5127万7000令吉,按年提高9.92%。

行家建议

2020财年次季核心净利达2720万令吉,按年增16%,按季多13%,带动首半年核心净利报5130万令吉,年增10%,这符合我们和市场的预期,各占全年预测的52%。

首6月营业额为1亿3710万令吉,按年增长7%,也符合我们全年预测的49%。

不过,第一次中期股息每股5仙超出预测,是我们全年预测的56%,首半年的股息按年增加了5%。

同时,我们发现次季的平均贷款增长14.3%,已超出我们2020至2022财年的14.2%预测,而平均融资成本持续处于下降趋势。

另外,第三批的Zamarad回债殖利率为4.51%,比8个月前发售的第一批回债,低了41基点,我们相信利差将会从去年的8.5%提高至8.8%。

目前,我们维持财测和周息率的预测不变,目标价也保持在1.80令吉。

我们持续看好RCE资本,因为股价估值不高,不过,投资回酬率及周息率却较高。

RHB upgrades MISC to 'Buy', raises TP to RM9.21

ANALYST REPORTS

Thursday, 14 Nov 20199:04 AM MYT

KUALA LUMPUR: RHB research has upgraded MISC BHD
image: https://cdn.thestar.com.my/Themes/img/chart.png
to a buy rating with a higher target price of RM9.21 following the release of 9M19 earnings that came within estimates.

"Our key reasons for the upgrade are: Better tanker rates in 2020 on tight vessel supply, strengthening operating cash flow, and continuous contract flows from major segments," it said in a note.

The research house said 9M19 numbers rose 24% year-on-year to RM1.2bil on the back of improved contributions from the LNG division and a turnaround in the petroleum segment.

"At 65% and 67% of full-year estimates, the results are deemed within our and consensus expectations, in view of a seasonally-stronger 4Q19," it said.

Moving forward, MISC may benefit from a surge in tanker rates, given that 40% of its petroleum tankers are in the spot market, says RHB.

The research house is expecting further growth in average spot charter rates for petroleum tankers due to tighter vessel supply with more vessels undergo scrubber retrofitting post IMO2020.

MISC could also generate US$5mil in cost savings per annum or 2% if FY19F earnings following the disposal of its chemical tanker this quarter, and the expected disposal of the remaining six vessels in the next six months.

On the offshore segment, MISC is bidding for several projects worth US$3.5bil in Malaysia, Qatar, Vietnam, Thailand and Brazil, of whih the largest is Petrobras' FPSO Mero 3 project.

"While we believe the company appears to be a good JV partner – backed by its strong balance sheet – we have yet to factor any contract win within the premium leased FPSO market," said RHB.

Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/11/14/rhb-upgrades-misc-to-039buy039-raises-tp-to-rm921#BBj01jJCeJfpDe1w.99

Affin Hwang downgrades PetChem to 'Sell', slashes TP

ANALYST REPORTS
Thursday, 14 Nov 20199:34 AM MYT

KUALA LUMPUR: PETRONAS CHEMICALS GROUP BHD
image: https://cdn.thestar.com.my/Themes/img/chart.png
could be seeing further downside risk owing to potential start-up losses in the Pengerang RAPID plant, says Affin Hwang Capital research.

"We expect the new RAPID plant to contribute ~5% in overall FY20 EBITDA growth but see risks of potential losses at the bottomline," it said.

Furthermore, Petronas Chemicals is expected to continue facing a weak petrochemical average selling price (ASP), which contributed to the poor performance in 3Q19.

With a lacklustre near-term outlook, the research house cut its FY19-21E earnings by 8%-18%.

It downgraded the counter to sell from hold with a lower target price of RM6.40 from RM7.81 previously, pegged to an unchanged 16x FY20 price-earnings.

"The current stock valuation at 18.5x is still above historical average of 16x. Upside risks include a sharp downward movement in product ASPs and global demand," it said.

This comes after Petronas Chemicals' share price fell 5% in yesterday trading following the release of poor earnings results.

For 3Q19, Petronas Chemicals' profit fell 56% year-on-year and 50% quarter-on-quarter, which was more than expected.

The quarter under review was widely expected to be a weak quarter due to heavy plant turnaround, resulting in an overall lower plant utilisation rate.

"While plant utilisation is projected to normalize in 4Q19, 9M19 results still missed our and consensus expectations, accounting for 71% and 69% of both estimates respectively primarily due to declining ASP trend," said Affin Hwang.

Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/11/14/affin-hwang-downgrades-petchem-to-039sell039-slashes-tp#t1LsT7gmG9OWrqsz.99

周顯:申領虛幣平台牌不易

文章日期:2019年11月14日

【明報專訊】幾年前,不停有人開證券公司,主要是一號牌的證券買賣,搶到負責人的薪水貴晒,連英文都唔識的老餅經紀都賺五六萬元一個月。但到了這一兩年,大鑊了,內地富豪撤出,一號牌大貶值,送都無人要,持牌人大量失業,不在話下。

在這兩年,還有一種負責人是吃香的,就是九號牌,即資產管理,俗稱基金牌。理由是,家陣太過流行family office(家族辦公室),個個都搞基金,有錢人去持有股票,也不出名字,而是用基金來代為持有,好作匿名。

所以,現在的富豪究竟有多少身家,誰也不敢說。這就是我常常說的,誰知道蓋茨持有多少facebook、Google、蘋果?像他這樣聰明,而且又熟知資訊科技市場的大亨,會不會不在低位買入這些股票呢?
七號牌最難拿

但是,在所有牌之中,最難拿的,是七號牌,即是自動化對盤,如黑池、暗盤等等。這是由於申請者不多,因此負責人少,員工也少。然而,要想申請七號牌,要兩個負責人,但要成為負責人,得有3年持牌人經驗,可是七號牌公司不多,只有一些外資行和少數本地行,因此持牌人的數量也不多,自然更不可能有3年經驗,去轉職為負責人。這是先有雞還是先有蛋的問題。

為什麼我會突然提起七號牌呢?皆因上周交易所剛公布了申請虛擬貨幣牌照條件,就是要一號牌和七號牌,因此,夠資格申請的人也不多。

[周顯 投資二三事]

意念治療的力量

美興

二○一八年11月我參加了美國的琉璃光活動,這次活動雷博士又教了我們更多保護自己的方法,回家後馬上就給了我驗證的機會,我的家裡人多年來都非常相信,並一直實踐琉璃光的各種方法,當然也都得到了很多好處。

第1個案例,我的婆婆80多歲了,因為幾年前摔了一跤,腿一直疼而且邁不開,我看到她非常痛苦,就決定幫她治療一下!當然她也非常樂意給我機會,我首先用能量棒給她做了全身檢測,發現越是痛的地方反轉的越厲害,所有的脈輪也都是反轉的,膝蓋也是反的,腳底也是反的!我在想要是用能量棒都先給她調一遍呢?

但要花好多時間,所以我就按照這次課程學到的方法畫了一個漩渦把婆婆的名字寫進去,首先把她自己保護起來,然後在畫的漩渦上面用大樂光片(見圖1)乘以一定倍數貼在漩渦上(見圖2)!就這一個動作,婆婆的能量就立刻提升了很多倍!因為在台灣的琉璃光音缽課程中學過音叉療法,所以我就在婆婆所有的脈輪以及她疼痛的地方敲音叉,敲的時候我還念藥師心咒,我發現音叉特別有效,敲完以後她所有的脈輪就全部正轉了!

因為雷博士也教過我們銅人療法,我又找了一個專門用於學習針灸方法的銅人(見圖3),按照腿疼的針灸方法在銅人上扎針灸!也把銅人上的經絡都敲了一遍!結果做完以後,婆婆的腿立刻就不疼了,而且也能邁開了,她開心地大踏步的走起來過去,過去因為腿疼,她晚上睡覺都不好,幾乎整夜都不能夠踏實睡,第1天幫她調理好以後她可以睡到早上五點了,第2天我接著幫她調理,她就可以一整晚好好睡覺了,調理了三次以後我出差了,出差期間我就遠程幫她用意念調整,結果她都是非常好的狀態!我特別開心婆婆也特別高興!

她以前整天跑醫院,身上也都貼了各種膏藥,自從用了這個方法她就開始大大減少用藥了!而且我現在遠程就能測出來她每天的情況!哪天的腿不好,能量棒就會告訴我,我跟婆婆溝通的時候,她也會確認我在遠程的檢測是非常準確的。我給婆婆買了一個銅人,讓她沒事兒就把銅人觀想成自己,多給銅人梳理經絡,敲打銅人上自己疼痛的部位!

第2個案例是我媽媽,我去成都看望我媽媽,看到她胳膊上貼了好多塊膏藥,她告訴我她已經疼了半年了,一直都貼著膏藥,手也抬不起來,我就自告奮勇又開始幫她治療,同樣的也是通過畫漩渦把我媽媽需要保護的地方保護起來,貼上大樂光片,我發現凡是比較嚴重的部位大樂光片的倍數就特別多,比較輕的部位就很少,所以當我把我媽媽的胳膊貼了以後,她當天就有明顯的好轉,手就可以轉動了,她就把膏藥撕下來了,過了三天我問我媽好了沒有,她突然意識到她的胳膊好像好了,完全不痛了!

我媽媽一直有眼睛乾澀的問題,我就按照銅人療法上的治療相應問題的主穴和配穴的方法用漩渦把治療穴位寫在裡面,同時蓋上大樂光片乘以相應的倍數,結果我剛剛幫我媽媽貼好,她從另外一個房間跑過來跟我說,你剛剛幫我治療了嗎?我的眼睛突然明亮了,而且好像也不乾澀了效果簡直太明顯了,簡直太神奇了!

雖然我跟老人不住在同一個城市,但是有了前兩次的經驗以後,我現在不管在哪裡,每天睡覺前我都會把老人的能量從頭到腳測一遍,然後用磁棒給銅人全身也都敲一遍,以確保他們的身體疏通,脈輪都能夠打開,特別是百會穴和湧泉穴都是正轉的!讓他們能夠在最好的狀態下去睡覺了!

我發現用這個方法的時候,一定要在自己非常專注非常相信的前提之下去做效果就會非常好!我也明白了,我們實際上在家裡就可以幫到很多人很多事,如果我們心存善念,每天想著怎麼去利益地球、利益眾生,我們在家裡用心念就可以去幫到他們!

Mr. Timing vs. Mr. Selection by Mark Boucher



A famous CDA/Wiesenberger study took an interesting approach to explaining two different market strategies by creating two fictitious characters – Mr. Timing and Mr. Selection. The research used data from 1940-1973 in its first edition and then continued on through the early 1990’s in a later edition.

Mr. Timing was capable enough to perfectly call every market swing of 10% or more. Mr. Timing bought at the exact low tick of every bottom prior to a 10% or higher move up and exited at the exact high tick before every decline of 10% or more. Essentially, Mr. Timing executed perfect entries and perfect exits on any swing of 10% or greater.

In contrast, Mr. Selection simply invested 100% of his funds in the top performing sector of the market each year.

Which one of these two traders had consistently stronger returns? Most people suspect that their profits would have been similar – but they were substantially different.

Mr. Selection beat Mr. Timing in the 1940-1973 study generating over thirty times the profit. And in the second study, Mr. Selection again beat Mr. Timing many fold.

While these results are purely fictitious and impossible for anyone to even come close to duplicating, they illustrate clearly that selection is more critical than timing in determining the profitability of your investments.

Most investors much of their time on market timing than on selection, however, the low fruit is in market selection. Be sure to spend much more of your time and effort on the lowest fruit likely to make the biggest impact upon your investment results. This is consistent with Dr. Tharp’s teaching. As you probably know, Van teaches that Market Selection is more important than either exits or entries.

OK, so let’s say you get that point. You want to employ more selection criteria to your investing approach. What are some of the proven methods for improving your investing via selection methodologies? Let's look at three in this article.

Market Selection Technique 1 – Relative Strength

Numerous studies of data going back many decades show that Relative Strength (RS) is one of the most significant and consistent variables for determining future outperformance in both stocks and in other asset classes.

For instance, Jim O’Shaughnessy of O’Shaughnessy Asset Management, found Momentum / RS based strategies were both more consistent in terms of outperformance and had the largest edge of any method tested. His tests included thousands of stocks going back to the 1950’s. O’Shaughnessy’s later work focused on momentum-value combinations which were the most profitable strategies of the past 50 years while concurrently they lowered volatility and drawdowns.

A Blackstar Funds study showed that in nearly every calendar year from 1926 to 2009, the top 25% of the stocks in the market at the time accounted for virtually all the gains of the major indexes during the year (see chart 1 below). The other 75% of the stocks essentially had an average return of 0%. An army of follow-up studies have shown that various methods of determining top RS and re-balancing yearly, quarterly, monthly, weekly, or even daily via top RS produces substantially higher returns than market averages over 90% of three year periods from 1926 to 2010. Moreover, the top 10% of stocks in a given year often account for nearly 50% of the total return of the entire market because they gain so substantially. It is the stocks that gain 50%+ that are the big drivers of total market returns. Understandably then, strategies that strive to locate and focus on stocks in this top 10% can do better consistently than simply selecting an average of stocks.


Figure 1 - Time and time again with remarkable consistency, the top relative strength leaders of the market made up the vast majority of the market return for each year from 1926-2009. Courtesy Blackstar Funds.

Investors’ Business Daily has published the Relative Strength Rankings of stocks for many decades and still uses this as a key component of its CANSLIM method of stock selection today.

One group tested a RS strategy where each month, 5 positions were taken in the top RS performers (3 month and 6 month) from among ETFs, S&P sectors, and individual stocks going back to 1920’s. Bonds and cash were added to the list and were switched into when bonds and cash rose to the top of the RS rankings or when RS values fell below 0 on half of top ten RS list. The group found consistent outperformance in 70% of years for this strategy. That’s better than market average annual returns of 15%+ with much higher consistency of profits and substantially lower drawdowns than the market.

In similar fashion, Cambria Investment Management ran a relative strength model on the huge database of the French-Fema US equity sector data going back to the 1920’s. In addition to finding consistent outperformance over this long period of time from Relative Strength portfolios, they also found “relative strength portfolios outperformed buy and hold in approximately 70% of all years and returns were persistent across time.”

Since 1992, the Portfolio Strategy Letter (PSL) has published our own country ETF investment model which uses both Relative Strength and interest rate action in each country as an additional filter to select country ETFs which are likely to outperform.





Figure 2 - In the graph above, the blue line represents the returns from the Top 5 Rate/RS Strategy since its initial publication in 1998. The red line cumulative returns for the S&P since 1998. The green line is another RS model we introduced at a later date.

This strategy published in real time, has produced a gain of 728% on a 14.5% maximum drawdown compared to the S&P’s gain of 302.3% on a 57.69% drawdown. That’s over 2.4 times the return on around ¼ the risk as the S&P.

For this strategy, we rank symbols by their RS number from highest to lowest using the IBD formula:

RS = (the 3 month double weighted % change + the 6 month % change + 9 month % change + 12 month % change) / 5

In our workshops, we teach some other methods of RS unique to our strategy that help improve these selections too. If you do nothing other than simply use the IBD RS rankings to focus your attention on holding the top 10% tier of RS stocks each year, you'll create a huge improvement in your trading results.*

Market Selection Technique 2 – 52 Week Highs

Another tangential momentum concept that demonstrates consistent outperformance is to find stocks making 52-week highs that continue to hold near those highs. Dorsey Wright has done some of the most substantial and rigorous testing of various approaches on market returns. Their findings, like that of O’Shaughnessy came to the conclusion that…

“...the margin of outperformance was larger in some decades than others, but while both Value and Growth experienced decades of underperformance, Momentum outperformed in every single decade.” ~Dorsey Wright Man vs Machine PDF

One test looked at over 50 different asset classes including stocks, stock sectors, bonds, metals, commodities, and currencies. In the test, the strategy simply bought 52-week new highs in each and used a simple moving average trailing stop thereafter to exit. The model outperformed in every asset-class and generated double-digit average annual returns on much lower than stock-market-average drawdowns for the overall portfolio going from 1920-2015.

In their 2011 study “Industry Information and the 52-Week High Effect” Hong, Jordan, and Liu show that the 52-week high effect of individual stocks is highly correlated to the entire industry group. When an entire industry group nears its 52-week high, the excess gains of stocks within this group also hitting their annual highs are greater. This correlation can be used to enhance the reliability of any strategy using 52-week high inputs.

Numerous studies show that buying stocks at a 52-week high can be an effective predictor for above average growth in the future — and while one must realize that these studies are based on large groups of stocks, they do show consistency over many decades.

When a stock rises above its 52-week high, it's developing a new pattern and often a new trend. New trends based on fundamental reasons, such as news releases or beating expected earnings, can be sharp and long lasting. A Bauer University study found that nearness to the 52-week high is a better predictor of future returns than are past returns, and that nearness to the 52-week high has predictive power whether stocks have experienced extreme past returns. You can view this study by clicking here.

Once a stock has shown top tier RS, how close a stock is to its 52-week high and how much it has come off of that high is also a strong predictor of whether it is likely to continue to run and display 50%+ gains as top stocks do consistently each year. In future articles, we will talk about how to combine RS with our WAM RS. WAM RS measures the closeness of a stock’s 52-week momentum high. Together, these statistics help pinpoint top tier stocks that are starting to run substantially to the upside.

Market Selection Technique 3 – 52 Week Highs in Top Groups

Stocks that on top RS lists that stay close to their 52-week highs which are also in top RS groups tend to continue longer runs and show stronger gains than others not in top groups. We use a variety of resources to help with this ranking.

- We use Marketsmith to find specific industry groups in the top 20-30 at any given point in time.
- Stockcharts.com helps us for the main eleven sector RS, and
- ETFscreen.com scans among over 500 ETF’s for the top industries and sectors over any given time period.

We teach how to rank groups by RS and periodically provide the rankings in our services, but simply using these mentioned sources can put you on the right track on your own.*

In future articles, we will discuss some additional fundamental and earnings growth requirements. We will also go into more detail about our WAM RS formula and techniques for when to press on the gas pedal and invest aggressively in the market versus when take your foot off the gas. With proper application, these ways can help you minimize drawdowns and exploit especially opportunistic trends (as might be starting right now) more substantially.

Pick The Lowest Hanging Fruit First

To improve your stock trading, integrate the variable shown to improve performance since the late 1800’s with incredible consistency – Relative Strength and Momentum. Figure out how use RS in your own investing approaches if you are not already using it.

* We teach many ways of how to do this in our webinars and workshops. We also have specific applications of these in the PSL service and in our Reedstrader service. We have lots of other criteria for selecting top stocks primed to become outperformers or to continue to be outperformers. We teach a seven-step process in our workshops for finding these stocks. We have also been publishing lists of these stocks for over 25 years in PSL with proven real-time outperformance demonstrated in these lists.

About the Author:
Mark Boucher began trading at age 16, helping finance his degree in Economics at the University of California at Berkeley. Upon graduation, he founded Investment Research Associates to finance research on stock, bond, and currency trading systems. In 1986 he joined forces with Fortunet, Inc. where he developed models for hedging and trading bonds, currencies, futures, and stocks. In 1989, some of the results of this research were published in the Fortunet Trading Course. While with Fortunet, Boucher also applied this research to designing institutional products, such as a hedging model on over $1 billion of debt exposure for the treasurer of a Fortune 500 company. Mark is the author of a book titled, The Hedge Fund Edge and contributed a weekly column to tradingmarkets.com, a site he co-founded, from 1998-2006. Mr. Boucher has also published the monthly newsletter Portfolio Strategy Letter since 1992, which has averaged high teens annual returns without a negative year since inception, including in 2008. Mark Boucher was a key consulting member of the Macro Team of Infinium Capital Management from 2008-2013, and was on the firm’s Advisory Board.

Additional note - Chuck Whitman and Mark Boucher will teach their Reeds Trading System at the Van Tharp Institute again in mid-2020. Details and schedules will be published shortly.

http://newsletter.vantharp.com/public/viewmessage/html/10920/4glltdmrr4drv1xo30ul94yzz8iwr/9b616da5f6427a68e114946d7c5a1724

Wednesday, November 13, 2019

周顯:股神也靠流水帳發圍

文章日期:2019年11月13日

【明報專訊】昨天說了做疊碼的流水,其實,不止是疊碼,很多其他的生意,都是靠這方法去經營的。

例如說,現時的新經濟,像Uber、Tesla、京東商城這些蝕本公司,都是靠着集資、做大營業額的方法,去穩住投資者,只要入金的數目多於出金,就可以永遠不爆煲。
入金多於出金 可永不爆煲

在幾十年前,香港人搞出入口貿易,也是做大營業額,拿銀行的LC貸款,不過他們好彩,碰到了股樓大升市,他們拿這些廉價資金回來,用來炒股炒樓,賺了大錢,從而可以還清債務,全身而退。很多今日的廢老,大把身家,印印腳做收租佬,其資產就是這樣賺回來的。

再說遠一點,你以為以前的人搞銀行,究竟是點賺錢的?咪又係開間銀行,吸納存款,小部分的存款借給街客,大部分的存款都拿來自己花,噢!不是用來花,是用來投資。如果有一筆廉價資金,給自己投資,只要正正經經的去找一些穩陣的項目,有穩定回報,豬都可以賺錢啦!

此外,保險公司也是玩這玩意,一名投資保險業的朋友對我說:我的公司係資不抵債呀!怕乜,唔通啲人會即刻死晒咩,只要有流水,永遠都不會爆煲。事實上,巴菲特都是用保險公司的錢來買藍籌股,唔係你買可口可樂、美國運通這些股票,一年賺20%畀我睇吖!

[周顯 投資二三事]