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Friday, July 10, 2020

[转贴] 5分钟看懂MATRIX(5236) 2020年 Q4季报 - 第一天

2020年7月9日星期四

matrix跟红飞机一样,本来应该要在五月底前公布的业绩,在因为疫情的影响下,BURSA允许公司可以延长至6月底出炉,他们也要求把期限暂延至7月15日前,而今天他的报告终于出炉了。相信大家对他应该不陌生,虽然天哥不常谈起他,但是他确是投资者心中的明星股之一,虽然地产行业低迷了几年,也压缩了他股价成长的空间,但是他却是一家不择不扣的高股息和优质的产业股,废话少说,我们直接进正题吧。。

Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31 Mar 2020
MATRIX CONCEPTS HOLDINGS BERHAD

Financial Year End 31 Mar 2020
Quarter 4 Qtr
Quarterly report for the financial period ended 31 Mar 2020
The figures have not been audited

Attachments
Q Report (31.03.2020) (1).pdf
392.2 kB

Remarks :
The Unaudited Condensed Consolidated Statement of Comprehensive Income should be read in conjunction with the Audited Financial Statements for the financial year ended 31 March 2019 and the accompanying explanatory notes attached to this interim financial statements.

Default Currency
Other Currency
Currency: Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)

SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION
31 Mar 2020

INDIVIDUAL PERIOD
CUMULATIVE PERIOD

CURRENT YEAR QUARTER
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
QUARTER
CURRENT YEAR TO DATE
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
PERIOD

31 Mar 2020
31 Mar 2019
31 Mar 2020
31 Mar 2019

$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
1 Revenue
472,143
278,945
1,282,335
1,045,531
2 Profit/(loss) before tax
95,222
83,486
339,103
297,767
3 Profit/(loss) for the period
52,915
65,865
231,636
218,229
4 Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent
55,579
65,865
234,300
218,389
5 Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit)
6.74
8.75
29.18
29.02
6 Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit)
2.50
3.25
11.50
12.75

AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER
AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
7 Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$)
1.9300
1.7600

我们不难发现,这个季度的营业额是异常的高,差不多比去年同季度高了70%左右,幅度相当惊人,但是奇怪的是,营业额提高了那么多,净利却没怎么提升,到底是什么回事呢?等下我们看看完整版本的报告吧,而这个季度由于是第四季,所以也是全年的业绩,我们看到他全年的营业额是继续比去年来得好的,而净利上还有少许的成长,所以是相对来说不错的,比较可惜的是,这个季度的股息派发有缩水了一下,让全年的股息变成11.5sen,股息率
来说处于6.3%左右的水平,算是不错的,前提是他未来没有继续下跌啦。。




这个就是他的完整版本季报,我发现了一个大问题,就是他的LOGO被做设计的人拉长了=。=,如果是我做印刷的时代做这样的东西,出去被老板骂了。。不过大家应该认为不重要啦XD,所以这里我们就看到问题了,生意是最大了,但是成本也提高了很多,为什么呢?我有看了他的NOTE有说明,因为产品组合有较大的部分是可负担房产,所以PROFIT MARGIN变少了。然后当营业额增加,SELLING EXPENSES自然就走高了,根据报纸报道说,在MCO期间,他们是全部工作人员ONLINE卖屋子,所以营业额才那么厉害,这个管理层真的非常厉害。但是最大的问题是,这个季度是第四季,所以所得税全部一次过计算,变多了很多,不然的话,相信这个季度能够保持着成长呢。。


在这个资产负债表,我们看到很重要的一项,就是他的LOGO又变回正常啦XD,然后可以看到他多了一项,就是JOINT VENTURE的公司,价值1亿3000万,虽然投资了那么多,但是现金还是继续增加中的,就知道多好料了。当然钱不会凭空出现的,借贷方面是有增加了少许的,但是整体来说,公司的资产多了4亿,算是这样了。每股的净资产也高达1.93,如果这样算的话,当下是有低估成份的,但是这个是参考而已,我一般上很少用NTA来计算合理价的。


所以其实他的现金从营运来看,是变多了的,但是很明显,在扣除了所得随后,现金回收是少了一些,不过OK咯还在能够接受的范围了,当然就是有投资了一亿三千多万在JOINT VENTURE的公司一起发展咯,对未来来说也是好事来的,总的来说,公司现金流是没问题啦,所以公司算是还可以的。


这个是公司的各种不同部门的业绩和表现,其实我有HIGHLIGHT起来了,青色是比去年同季度做得好的,而公司最赚钱的业务当然是产业发展了,这一块最赚钱,然后建筑其实比去年同季度减少了净利,而他的酒店和大学,其实并不是很赚钱的,教育部分还亏损300万,但是其实去年同季是亏800万的,所以亏少了很多,是好事来的。。所以大家记得要读大学记得找MATRIX,不然继续亏钱也不好玩XD


这个是公司对未来的预期,自从COVID后,全部公司的预期都变长了,总的来说,公司的产业都有一定的需求,所以管理层认为2021还是有一定的机会可以超越,也认为接下来的产业需求会保持不错的情况。


这个是公司过去十多个季度的业绩,虽然这个季度因为所得税的缘故变红了,但是其实过去十多个季度是青多过红的,而且走势也相对不错,所以公司确实是一家稳打稳扎的产业公司。


MATRIX 5236
股价 Rm1.83
ROE 14.5左右PE: 6.5左右
DY 6.28%左右

总结

从上述的图表我们不难发现,虽然公司过去许多个季度都青多过红,但是公司的股价因为产业市场疲弱,而跟其他产业公司一同低迷了好几年了,所以当下的价格跟几年前来说,不仅没有上涨,还跌了少许,而我们也看一看公司的一些数据,包括ROE,PE和DY等等,很明显如果以这样的数据衡量的话,公司确实是处于低估的阶段的,所以个人的看法来说,我是对该公司保持正面的想法的,毕竟我比较喜欢低估的公司,而且未来前景也还可以就好了。但是说真的,这种股对于大部分的人来说,可能太闷了,他要有爆发性的股价增值貌似不是容易的事,除非产业股的趋势来临,否则的话,买这只股最多是稳稳收一点股息,然后股价能够不跌,并有少许的成长已经算是不错了,所以对于高风险投资者来说,其实这家公司并不会很吸引,但是对于稳定类别的投资者来说,这家公司或许就是一个值得留意的公司了,至于该不该买,就看自己怎么想了。。

写这篇文章的时候我个人是持有该公司股份,但是请别看到我的文章就胡乱以为我叫你买或卖,整篇文章并没有任何买卖建议,或推高股压低价的其他企图,单纯分享我的功课,本人“怒”不对你的盈亏负任何责任,谢谢。

https://windscopo.blogspot.com/2020/07/5matrix5236-2020-q4.html

Wood Manufacturing - The divergent fortunes of wood manufacturing

While panel board makers are expected to continue to suffer from low ASPs from a regional supply glut, a very different outlook beckons for furniture makers in 2H20. Going into 2H20, we expect furniture makers to benefit from rebounding sales volumes, weak ringgit levels and cheaper raw material costs. We maintain our NEUTRAL stance on the sector given the divergent fortunes of furniture and panel board makers. Our top picks are Lii Hen (BUY, TP: RM3.65) based on 9x PE on mid-FY21 earnings and Homeritz (BUY, TP: RM0.72) based on 10x PE multiple on FY21 earnings.

Furniture sales returning to pre-covid-19 levels already? According the Malaysian Furniture Association, furniture sales volumes have been surprisingly strong since the resumption of operations. Having recently met with furniture makers Lii Hen and Homeritz, both have confirmed that sales have returned to pre-Covid levels (i.e. that of Jan-Feb 2020).

Furniture makers 2H20 outlook. Going into 2H20, furniture makers Lii Hen and Homeritz are expected to benefit on several fronts from (i) pent up demand, (ii) increased orders to the US from companies diverting orders from China to SEA region due to the still on-going trade war, (iii) weaker ringgit strength averaging RM4.25/USD YTD (vs. 2019 average: RM4.14/USD) and (iv) cheaper raw materials (glue, leather etc.) vs. 2019 prices.

Both Lii Hen and Homeritz are trading at undemanding valuations, have healthy dividend yield and are net cash. In addition to favourable earnings outlook, Lii Hen and Homeritz are currently trading at undemanding valuations of 7.5x and 8.7x PE (or 5.1 and 4.7 ex-cash PE respectively. Furthermore, both Lii Hen and Homeritz are yielding a healthy 6.1% and 5.2% at current price levels. As of end-Feb they are net cash with Lii Hen at RM157.9m (RM0.88/share; 32.3% of market cap) and Homeritz at RM81.1m (RM0.27/share; 46.6% of market cap).

Panel board makers macro issues continue. Panel board makers continue to suffer from excess supply glut in the region. This is mainly due to ample production capacities in neighbouring countries, Thailand and Vietnam, which ramped up capacities to supply the Middle East market. Since US trade sanctions were imposed on the Middle East in 2018, excess capacities have led to ASPs declining significantly as Thailand and Vietnam flooded the market with product. Figure #2 shows the historical PBT contribution of panel board makers Evergreen and Heveaboard. As trade sanctions show no signs of being lifted, we expect the depressed prices (from the supply glut) continuing into 2H20.

Malaysia as a production hub. Despite Vietnam’s reputation as a manufacturing hotbed, we note that the cost of labour in the country has risen dramatically in recent years, reducing its attractiveness as a manufacturing hub. Figure #1 shows the narrowing cost of labour between Malaysia and Vietnam. With this narrowing gap, Malaysia could be poised to grab some of the “US-China trade war demand substitution” from Vietnam.

Forecasts. We Keep Our Forecasts Unchanged.

NEUTRAL. We maintain our NEUTRAL stance on the sector given the divergent fortunes of furniture and panel board makers. Our top picks for the sector are Lii Hen (BUY, TP: RM3.56) and Homeritz (BUY, TP: RM0.72) due to reasons mentioned above.

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 10 Jul 2020

Matrix Concepts Holdings - Ending strong

Matrix reported FY20 core PATMI of RM231.5m (+6.4% YoY), within expectations. 4QFY20 core PATMI fell QoQ/YoY largely due to a lower margin product mix. 4QFY20 new sales came in at RM87.3m, bringing FY20 sales to RM1bn. Both FY21 sales and GDV launch targets are set at RM1.1bn which will likely be achieved given that over RM700m worth of property bookings were made during the MCO period. We maintain our forecasts and BUY recommendation with an unchanged RNAV-based TP of RM2.06.

Within expectations. Matrix reported 4QFY20 core PATMI of RM52.9m (-19% QoQ, -19.7% YoY), bringing the FY20 amount to RM231.5m (+6.4% YoY) which formed 101% and 103% of our and consensus full year forecasts, respectively. No EIs were excluded from the reported earnings.

Dividend. Declared interim dividend of 2.5 sen (4QFY19: 3.0) per share going ex on 23 Jul 2020, bringing YTD dividend to 11.5 sen per share.

QoQ/YoY. 4QFY20 revenue increased +69.2%/+69.3% to RM472.1m on the back of higher recognition from the sales of Sendayan Development residential properties. On the other hand, core PATMI fell -19%/-19.7% to RM52.9m due to a higher effective tax rate due to non-deductibles coupled with lower margin product mix (i.e. more affordably-priced houses compared to more commercial and industrial properties in the previous quarters)

YTD. Revenue rose +22.4% to RM1282.3m from higher revenue recognition from progressive billings. Similarly, core PATMI improved 6.4% to RM231.5m in tandem with revenue coupled with a lower margin product mix.

Ending strong. We view Matrix’s recent quarterly results positively as the earnings did relatively better in comparison to its property peers (which registered much wider decreases). 4QFY20 new sales came in at RM87.3m, bringing FY20 sales to RM1bn which is below its full year target of RM1.3bn largely due to the Covid-19 impact. Both FY21 sales and GDV launch targets are set at RM1.1bn which will likely be achieved given that over RM700m worth of property bookings were made during the MCO period. Earnings visibility will continue to be supported by new sales and unbilled sales of 0.8x cover (RM1bn).

Forecast. Unchanged. Maintain BUY with an unchanged TP of RM2.06 based on a 30% discount to RNAV of RM2.94. We continue to like Matrix as it is well-positioned to ride on affordable housing theme within its successful townships with cheap land cost and sustained property sales. This is supported by an attractive dividend yield of 5.7% for FY21 and 6.8% for FY22, being one of the highest in the sector

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 10 Jul 2020

大公司GCB的買進時機

Guan Chong Bhd(GCB, 5102),从事可可脂,可可饼,可可粉和可可来源的食品配料的投资控股,制造,分销和贸易。

从地域上看,该集团在马来西亚,新加坡和印度尼西亚开展业务,其中主要收入来自新加坡。



Guan Chong Bhd 長期以來業績不是很理想,ROE並不高。

但2016年後就出現顯著成長。

但實際上,Revenue 真正成長的只是2019年,如下:

Revenue

2016 2315.87

2017 2147.91

2018 2273.42

2019 2941.63

EPS

2016 0.09

2017 0.1

2018 0.2

2019 0.21

但在當前經濟衰退的背景下,2019年業績恐怕很難保持。

Guan Chong Bhd 雖然是一間收入基礎穩定的大公司,但有其缺點,就是產品屬於鬥價錢型,故只能以量來壓低成本取勝。

這也是它毛利率低的原因,就算這三年業績進步,仍不能擺脫這格局。

也許就是如此,它市盈率長期維持在7-12之間。

未來可見估計仍不能擺脫7-12的市盈率。

但無論如何,作為一家營業額有29億令吉的大企業,它還是有一定投資價值。

這裡,我先假定它會受損於經濟衰退,但還是會復甦回2016-2019年水平,那就可以估算它的價值,大概介於10-12倍市盈率。

以目前2.80,12.26市盈率股價,它不是理想買入價值。

所以建議還是等反彈結束,股市再次回落時,才進場。




这一套三本投资书胜过你看外面20本,因为外面的投资书是东说一点,西说一点,我是把精华整理归纳,以Step by Step方法铺陈,化繁為簡,全面講解投資分析法。

股票基本面分析的《股票真智慧》、技术面的《图表趋势秘密》和经济分析的《经济周期投资》。

詳細书內容可瀏覽:

https://ckfstock.blogspot.my/2018/02/adibooks-series.html

購買請mail: kongfaw.choo358@gmail.com

投资教学視頻(捐款用途)

https://ckfstock.blogspot.com/2019/11/blog-post_25.html
 

KGI initiates coverage on Silverlake Axis with 30 cents TP

Broker's Calls
Samantha Chiew Published on Thu, Jul 09, 2020 / 12:52 PM GMT+8 / Updated 17 hours ago

SINGAPORE (July 9): KGI Securities is initiating coverage on Silverlake Axis with “outperform” and a target price of 30 cents.

Silverlake Axis has strong, multi-year relationships with key Asian banks and other financial institutions, providing and servicing their core banking systems.

Despite COVID-19 leading to lower project revenue due to delays, banking clients have stepped up requests for more maintenance works, essentially leading to minimal sales fall-off.

While this has helped cushion Silverlake’s sales drop, the company has also seen little to no cancellation in orders. Management is also expecting a large contract to be signed in early FY21.

In the short-term, banks are likely to cut down on IT spending due to Covid-19, but are likely accelerate digitalisation plans after this period. Hence, banks' long-term capex plans are not expected to see a large impact.

Furthermore, the proliferation of the Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) business will soon serve as yet another stable, recurring revenue stream for Silverlake. The business is now in the early stages of expansion into Japan.

On that note, Silverlake can also see decent order book gains, should they manage to successfully partner with digital banking licensees.

Analysts Kenny Tan and Joel Ng said in a Thursday report, “While corporate purses for IT spending will be tightened in a post-COVID world, we expect a shift to cloud spending, where Silverlake has also pivoted towards with their latest business strategies.”

Currently, the company maintains a healthy balance sheet that can continue funding acquisitions to have a better fighting chance in the cloud space.

Meanwhile, the analysts’ target price of 30 cents is based on 13 times FY21 estimated EPS, which in return is about 32% discount to Indian competitors, and 48% discount to European and American peers, as well as below Silverlake’s average price-to-earnings ratio in the past five years.

“We can expect further upside if highlighted catalysts occur, or when banks resume regular spending practices,” says Tan and Ng.

Based on the stock’s current price of 25 cents, the analysts have assumed a 50% dividend payout ratio, which translates to future dividend yields between 4.2 – 5.0%.

“It is possible that Silverlake maintains current dividend of 1.8 Scts, a 7.2% dividend yield, since they have the cash for it, but we think that is an unlikely scenario,” adds Tan and Ng.

SATS reports net loss of $6.3 mil in 4Q20 as Covid-19 halts air travel


Results
Felicia Tan Published on Thu, Jul 09, 2020 / 6:55 PM GMT+8 / Updated 14 hours ago

SINGAPORE (July 9): SATS, the gateway services and food solutions provider, reported a net loss of $6.3 million in 4Q20, compared to the earnings of $49.9 million reported in 4Q19.

The loss was mainly attributable to provisions by the group and impairments of $51 million.

This brings SATS’s total earnings for FY20 to $168.4 million, a 32.2% drop y-o-y from last year.

The quarter reported a loss per share of 0.6 cent, compared to the 4.5 cents in 4Q19.

Earnings per share (EPS) for FY20 came in at 15.1 cents, compared to the 22.3 cents reported in the previous year.

Group revenue fell 8.1% y-o-y to $38.4 million for the quarter, due to lower revenue reported for Gateway Services and higher revenue for Food Solutions.

For FY20, group revenue grew 6.2% y-o-y to $1.94 billion. Food Solutions’ revenue rose 8.3% y-o-y to $1.07 billion, with contributions from CFPL and NWA of $121.2 million. Gateway Services’ revenue increased 3.7% y-o-y to $868.8 million, mainly due to the consolidation of Ground Team Red Holdings and Ground Team Red, and strong performance in ground handling before the Covid-19 outbreak.

In a Thursday statement, SATS says its performance for the quarter was impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic across the region. The outbreak led to a significant drop in air travel demand, and created a “substantial adverse impact” on revenue and profitability.

Revenue for Gateway Services declined 17.8% y-o-y to $185.3 million while Food Solutions revenue edged up 0.8% y-o-y to $247.3 million.

The consolidation of Country Foods (formerly known as SATS BRF Food Pte. Ltd.) and Nanjing Weizhou Airline Food Corp (NWA) contributed $46.4 million and $3.6 million respectively to Food Solutions’ revenue.

Group expenditure for the quarter fell 6.9% q-o-q to $391.6 million.

In the same quarter, staff costs declined by $59.8 million mainly due to government reliefs, a a decrease in contract services, overtime, and other variable staff costs attributable to lower aviation volumes.

Group expenditure for the year rose 8.5% y-o-y to $1.72 billion on the consolidation of the newly-acquired subsidiaries.

New projects and assets also contributed towards the increase in depreciation costs.

Operating profit for the group fell 18.3% y-o-y to $41.5 million primarily due to the sharp decline in the group’s aviation revenue.

For FY20, operating profit fell 8.4% y-o-y to $226.2 million.

Share of results from associates/joint ventures registered a loss of $31.2 million, compared to a $8.9 million profit in 4Q19. This was affected by reduced business volumes as well as credit loss and asset impairments made in view of the Covid-19 outbreak.

Share of result from associates/joint ventures fell 80% y-o-y to $11.8 million.

The total credit losses and impairment charges attributable to SATS for 4Q20 came up to $51 million.

The group’s underlying net profit plunged 88.5% y-o-y to $5.6 million, compared to $43.1 million last year.

Group net profit attributable to owners of the company declined 32.2% y-o-y to $168.4 million. The underlying net profit was $180.3 million, a 25.3% decrease y-o-y.

SATS has decided not to pay a final dividend for FY20. This brings the full year dividend to 6 cents.

“This will allow the company to preserve more jobs and capabilities to support our customers as aviation volumes resume, and to pursue opportunities outside of aviation,” it says.

Looking ahead, SATS says it is working to ensure operational continuity and are developing new offerings that include incorporating digital solutions, new food technology, and sustainable packaging.

“The operating environment in the next financial year will be challenging for our aviation related businesses. I would like to recognise our people for the flexibility and resilience that they have shown throughout,” says Alex Hungate, president and CEO of SATS

“We are also grateful for the support that we have received from governments in Singapore and other markets that has helped SATS to retain our deep domain capabilities so that we can ramp up aviation operations with confidence as demand returns,” he adds.

Shares in SATS closed 1 cent lower, or 0.3% down, at $2.88 on Thursday.

Riverstone Holdings outperforms with gloves in high demand, say analysts

Broker's Calls
Jovi Ho Published on Thu, Jul 09, 2020 / 4:11 PM GMT+8 / Updated 15 hours ago

SINGAPORE (Jul 9): Against the backdrop of the Covid-19 pandemic, cleanroom product manufacturer Riverstone Holdings is seeing “outperformance” that is expected to continue into the next quarter.

UOB Kay Hian and CGS-CIMB are maintaining “buy” and “add” on the company respectively, with the latter lifting the target price to $3.90 from $3.12.

The Singapore-listed company will release its 2QFY20 results by early-August. CGS-CIMB analyst Ong Khang Chuen projects a strong net profit of RM72 million ($23.51 million), at 54% q-o-q and 102% y-o-y.

Citing a call with Riverstone Holding’s CEO, UOB Kay Hian analysts Llelleythan Tan and John Cheong expect demand for healthcare gloves to remain robust beyond 2Q2020; a rise in average selling price (ASP); and ample capacity expansion, with the company’s first production line commencing production this month.

“As more countries start to experience [a] second wave of Covid-19 infections, demand for healthcare gloves continues to increase and customers have offered to pay higher prices to secure inventories,” said UOB Kay Hian in a Jul 7 report.

ASP for healthcare gloves are expected to increase by around 10% every month until August then maintaining in September, though CGS-CIMB expects growth in July to taper in the subsequent month, at 20% and 8% m-o-m.

Overall, the “favourable” ASP environment is expected to continue up to 1H2021, “based on customers’ strong indicative demand”, notes UOB Kay Hian.

Riverstone Holdings’ ASP for healthcare gloves have also been given a surprise boost by a new tier pricing for Riverstone’s regular healthcare glove customers (RC), notes UOB Kay Hian.

This month, Riverstone introduced a new tier pricing system for its regular customers. Instead of paying US$25 per thousand pieces for 100 million pieces, regular customers pay US$25 per thousand pieces for the first 40 million pieces.

These customers then pay a mark-up of US$27 per thousand pieces for the subsequent 40 million pieces, and spot prices between US$60-70 per thousand pieces for the remainder of their order.

This new tier system was proposed by regular customers and not Riverstone Holdings, reports UOB Kay Hian.

“As most of Riverstone’s regular customers are glove distributors with hospitals as end-clients, we believe this shows the growing unmet demand for healthcare gloves if regular customers are willing to pay spot prices to ensure they have stock,” say Tan and Cheong.

The company is also making strides on the supply side. After a pause in its capacity expansion in 2Q2020 owing to Malaysia’s movement control order, Riverstone Holdings is expected to commission new production lines gradually starting July, notes CGS-CIMB in a Jul 8 report.

This month, the company will see a single line start production, and a double line will be commissioned every month from August to December this year, reports UOB Kay Hian.

“We estimate [Riverstone Holdings’] total annual production capacity will grow 8% in 2H2020F to 10.6 billion pieces. Additional capacity from the new lines would be sold at spot prices, in our view,” says Ong.

As at 4.05pm, shares in Riverstone Holdings are trading 0.61% or 2 cents lower, at $3.28.