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Monday, October 22, 2018

[转贴] 区块链大谎言/努里埃尔·鲁比尼


Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Mon, 22 Oct 2018, 05:02 PM
2018年10月20日
Project Syndicate

比特币的价值从去年高点下跌了70%左右,这场所有泡沫之母已经破灭。更一般地说,加密货币已经进入了一场不那么秘密的浩劫。

以太币、EOS、莱特币和XRP等主要加密货币都下跌了80%多,数千种其他数字货币下跌了90至99%,其余更是露出了骗局的本质。因此你不必感到奇怪,八成首次代币发行(ICO)从一开始就是骗局。

面对市场的血雨腥风,加密恶棍的支持者们躲进了最后的避难所:“区块链”防线。区块链是一种分布式记账软件,是所有加密货币的基础。



区块链被说成是所有问题的潜在解决妙招,不管是贫困与饥荒还是癌症。事实上,它是人类历史上被吹得最厉害而实际最没用的技术。

在实践中,区块链无非是外表光鲜的电子表格。但它却成了自由主义意识形态的代名词,将一切政府、央行、传统金融机构和真实货币视为邪恶的权力集中,必毁之而后快。

在区块链原教旨主义者的理想世界里,所有经济活动和人际互动都必须是无政府主义或自由主义去中心化的。他们但愿社会和政治生活的全部最终都落在应该是“无许可”(向所有人开放)和“无信任”(不依赖银行等可信中介)的公共账簿上。

集中在少数贪婪者

但区块链并没有催生一个乌托邦,而是带来了我们耳熟能详的经济地域。

一些自利的白人(区块链圈子里很少有女性或少数群体)摆出一副全世界穷人、边缘群体和无银行服务大众的救世主形象,宣称无中生有地创造了数十亿美元财富。

但只要想一想权力在加密货币“矿工”、交易所、开发者和财富所有者手中大量集中,就能看出区块链与去中心化和民主根本无关;它只和贪婪有关。

比如,少数几家公司——大多位于民主洼地俄罗斯、格鲁吉亚和中国——控制着所有加密挖矿活动的三分之二到四分之三,并且都通过抬高交易成本来增加丰厚的利润。

显然,区块链狂热分子将把我们引向完全不受法律约束的匿名卡特尔,而不是信任央行和受监管的金融中介。

加密货币交易也表现出类似的模式。在中心化的交易所,99%的交易会不时被黑客入侵。而和真实货币不同,一旦你的加密货币被入侵,就会永远消失。


区块链是一种分布式记账软件,是所有加密货币的基础。

“代码即法律”是幌子

此外,加密开发的中心化——比如,原教旨主义者们称以太坊创始人维塔利克·布特林(Vitalik Buterin)是“生活的仁慈独裁者”——等于宣布了所谓的“代码即法律”是一个谎言。

在“代码即法律”的幌子下,好像作为区块链应用基础的软件坚如磐石。

真相是开发者拥有绝对权力充当法官和陪审团。

如果他们的充满漏洞的“智能”伪合同出了问题,发生大规模入侵,他们只需要改改代码,用任性指令将失败的货币“分叉”称另一种货币,这表明一整套“无信任”机制从一开始就完全不值得信任。

最后,加密世界的财富集中度比朝鲜还要高。

基尼系数1.0表示一个人控制着一国100%的收入/财富,朝鲜的基尼系数为0.86,非常不平等的美国的基尼系数是0.41,而比特币的基尼系数高达0.88。

只是伪神话

应该清楚,所谓的“去中心化”根本就是控制着这个伪行业的伪亿万富翁所宣传的神话。如今,被吸引到加密货币市场的散户都输了个底儿掉,而没有倒闭的神油贩子们作用万贯假财,只要他们试图套现“资产”,这笔财富就会立即蒸发。

至于区块链本身,全世界没有一家机构——银行、公司、非政府组织或政府机构——会把资产负债表或与客户的交易、贸易和互动记录放在公开的去中心化点对点无许可账簿上。

没有好理由认为如此重要的财产和无价的情报应该公开记录。

去中心化虚有其名

此外,实际使用分布式记账技术——所谓的企业DLT——的情况,也和区块链没有什么关系。它们是私有的、去中心化的,记录在区区几个受控制的账簿上。

它们的访问需要许可,许可只授予合格的人。

也许最重要的是,它们基于受信任的当局,它们的信誉需要时间的积淀。

所有这些说明,“区块链”徒有其名。

总而言之,所有“去中心化”的区块链,到了实际使用时,最终都是中心化的、有许可的数据库。照此看,区块链甚至还不如1979年就发明的标准电子表格。

严肃的机构断不会允许让世界极权盗贼政权的阴影下运行的匿名卡特尔验证交易。

因此,毫不奇怪只要传统设定的“区块链”试水,要么被扔进垃圾箱,要么转变为私人有许可数据库,无非就是加上了误导性名字的Excel电子表格数据库。

转贴] 金融大师:未来3到5年是大熊市 不要因为东西便宜就投资

Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Mon, 22 Oct 2018, 04:54 PM
2018年10月20日



(台北20日讯)国际投资大师吉姆·罗杰斯25日访台,将预告2019投资大趋势。面对外界质疑看多中国论调是否失灵,罗杰斯接受《财讯》双周刊越洋专访时表示仍看好熊市过后,中国重点产业有反弹机会。
罗杰斯指出,未来三到五年,会是一个很大的熊市,美股已创新高,放空美国股票的胜率会很大,其次是放空垃圾债或是垃圾债基金(高收益债券基金)。

他表示,进入熊市期间农产品期货会涨,可伺机短线作多农产品期货;通过熊市后,会再有另一个反弹,建议买中国、韩国、或是俄罗斯,会给你带来很大的收益。

76岁的罗杰斯,打从25岁进入投资圈以来,就以基本面研究为主,只投资真心相信并且真正了解的,并为此投入大量的时间与精力搜集各种资讯来判断真伪。

例如,他最近想投资区块链公司,看好其破坏式的创新架构;但他不会碰虚拟货币,因为只要法定货币全部数位化,虚拟货币的存在空间就会悉数瓦解。

他认为,投资与价格无关,选股不是在路边看到一块石头,觉得它比其他石头漂亮就选它,而是要把石头整个翻过来,看它的纹路和青苔怎么长,都理解了才能购买。绝对不要因为东西便宜就投资,因为它可能还会更便宜;要投资有潜力、具有取代性的东西,千万不要盲从,所以他不使用技术分析,也不认识任何人因为使用技术分析而致富。

也因此,尽管中、港股票持续探底,罗杰斯仍对中国抱持乐观,还不时扼腕着至今仍未有机会与年轻有钱的中国女孩交往。

他表示,中国仍是最好的市场,污染防治、绿色能源、一带一路、医疗教育等重点产业会得到中国政府大量资金支持,现在进场一定会赚到大钱。

不过他也坦承,中国股市现在趋势往下,主因在于境内债务和贸易战,不过这类政治经济转折,其实经常发生于经济迅速成长的新兴国家,但环保及污染防治和医疗等具有长线潜力产业,即便股价短期内会跟着大盘超跌,等局势稳定后,反而会是最快脱颖而出的一批。

新闻来源:经济日报

http://www.enanyang.my/news/20181020/%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E5%A4%A7%E5%B8%88%E6%9C%AA%E6%9D%A53%E5%88%B05%E5%B9%B4%E6%98%AF%E5%A4%A7%E7%86%8A%E5%B8%82-%E4%B8%8D%E8%A6%81%E5%9B%A0%E4%B8%BA%E4%B8%9C%E8%A5%BF%E4%BE%BF%E5%AE%9C%E5%B0%B1/

股災時該選什麼股?(1)

Author: Adi_Investor | Publish date: Mon, 22 Oct 2018, 03:41 PM



目前股市處於高點,除美國和日本股市外,包括大馬在內的股市,都呈現熊市初現跡象。

那麼,股災來時,該抄底什麼股呢?

上千支股票,要一支一支研究很耗費時間。

這裡我用 Stocks Screener 來解決。

篩選標準是:

1)連續5年ROE平均15%

2)周息率3%

當然,我假定 Stocks Screener 的數據是對的。

以這標準看,一共有47支股票過關,名單如此:

DIGI
CARLSBG
DLADY
BAT
ASTRO
HEIM
SEG
BAUTO
ELSOFT
BJTOTO
WELLCAL
SCICOM
EDGENTA
AIRASIA
MAXIS
WPRTS
PETDAG
HUPSENG
LITRAK
UCHITEC
GKENT
BURSA
SUNCON
TAKAFUL
GDB
DSONIC
AMWAY
REXIT
HLIND
GASMSIA
HAIO
SKPRES
MAGNI
LIIHEN
KAB
SAMCHEM
MATRIX
SCIENTX
SCC
RCECAP
UTDPLT
KEN
HAPSENG
HOMERIZ
PARAMON
PCHEM
LPI

因為 Stocks Screener 功能有限,若要更進一步研究細節財務數據的話,你必須要自己親自一支一支觀察這47支股票。

如果你認為某行業未來可以,並不一定侷限在這47支名單內。

例如,你若看好 UTDPLT,也可以考慮它的同行,如 KLK、BLDPlant 等。

因為要過濾47支股票的財務數據也很費時,所以我先預設未來的經濟環境,那些行業可能不利,所以就算它目前業績不俗,我也預先排出。

例如,因為現在是低利率時代,而且是幾十年來最低利率水平。

因此依據經濟週期,我估計未來會出現高利率。

在高利率下,信貸業務不振,債券投資也會面臨利率上升,價格下降的虧損,所以我依據這情況,排除了金融、房產和建築,大廠房大機器企業,以及代工企業。

依據這標準,我以目前我腦袋印象對這些公司的認識,扣出了一些名單,剩下的31支股的名單如下(這只是我自己的印象認識)。

DIGI
CARLSBG
DLADY
BAT
ASTRO
HEIM
SEG
ELSOFT
BJTOTO
SCICOM
MAXIS
WPRTS
PETDAG
HUPSENG
LITRAK
UCHITEC
BURSA
DSONIC
AMWAY
HLIND
GASMSIA
HAIO
MAGNI
LIIHEN
KAB
SAMCHEM
SCC
UTDPLT
HAPSENG
HOMERIZ
PCHEM

下來,該如何進一步篩選呢?

因為有事,故11月上旬才繼續談論......

[TO BE CONTINUE...]

18至20岁市场小 提高买酒年龄无损啤酒股


2018年10月20日

(吉隆坡20日讯)从本周二起,我国喝酒的合法年龄从18岁,上调到21岁,店家也不能出售酒类给20岁以下者,分析员对于新规不太担心,对业者冲击也不大,因为18至21岁的顾客群占比很小。

联昌国际投行研究指出,18到20岁年龄层的消费者缺乏可支配消费能力,因此,这年龄层不是主要的酒类消费者,新规不会对啤酒领域有太大的冲击。

该行分析员还说,他们的研究显示,一般上,以通路行销酒类的场所,会有入场最低年龄限制,即21岁,所以这年龄层的消费者,可进入的场所也有限。

丰隆投行研究分析员则认为,尽管上调喝酒的年龄限制对啤酒业者不利,但可能会面对执法挑战,进而导致新条例的影响不够深。

该行分析员说,理论上,上调买酒年龄限制,会影响领域销售量,因为合法的消费者群会减少。

不过,分析员相信,基于执法的问题,冲击可能不大。


评级维持中和

他还说,虽然无法直接比较,但私酒猖獗是执法困难的证据。事实上,合法喝酒年龄早在2016年5月就通过了,但还没有执行。

因此,该分析员暂时维持啤酒领域“中和”评级。

不过,联昌国际投行研究分析员认为,较高年龄的限制,可能会导致酒类不容易买到,且买酒也会变得很不方便,尤其若政府规定买酒须出示身分证。

尽管这个消息看来负面,但不会显著冲击需求,所以仍维持该领域“中和”评级。

分析员说,基于短期内监管风险、预算案可能上调啤酒税及私酒相当容易买到,将限制合法啤酒销售量,相信目前以2019年18.9倍的本益比交易的估值属于合理。

不过,该领域2018到2020财年,5.1%至5.5%的周息率预测,会支撑股价走势。

Tong's Value Investing Portfolio as of October 18, 2018

Tong Kooi Ong

More losses for Chinese stocks as volatility rise

Volatility appears the theme of the day in global stock markets. Investors are noticeably jittery following a bruising couple of weeks although a steadier Wall Street has allayed the worst of fears, for now.

The US economy remains in good shape. Recent data showed record number of jobs available in the month of August. The main worry is rising valuations and widening valuation gap with the rest of the world.

Hence, the current 3Q18 results season would be key in whether the recent selloff is just a blip or the beginning of a broader downtrend. Consensus is expecting y-y earnings growth in the region of 20% or so. If companies can beat market expectations, then stocks may well resume their record run.

The reporting season have gotten off to a good start with upbeat earnings from bellwether companies like JP Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Group, Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth Group. Netflix added subscribers at a stronger than expected clip while Walmart offered an upbeat forecast for its domestic sales, although IBM did dampen sentiment after a miss on revenue.

Investors may require more convincing when it comes to emerging markets, given near-term risks and concerns. Attempts at rebounds, thus far, appear tentative and most Asian markets remain deep in the red for the year.

An obvious near-term catalyst would be a breakthrough in trade talks between the US and China. Chinese stocks endured another wave of selling and remain the worst performing market in the world, as investors priced in the potential impact of a full-blown trade war and slowing economy.

So far, exports have held up, likely due to companies front-loading their purchases before the worst of the tariffs kick in by January 2019. But China has been downshifting on its own volition, with deleveraging measures and focus on slower but more sustainable quality growth. This transformation and adjustment process will continue, affecting short-medium term growth but should be positive for the country in the long run.

Amidst the turmoil, it is worth bearing in mind that many Chinese stocks are trading at attractive valuations based on their underlying fundamentals. It is a matter of time when market sentiment will turn.

There is also a longer-term, bright side to prevailing trade conflicts – and a factor to consider in terms of investing decisions. It will hasten the reshuffling of global trade and supply chain, relocation of manufacturing bases from China and spillover investments into Asean. China will be the world’s biggest consumer market in the foreseeable future. It is already a key trading partner for most countries in this region.

The Global Portfolio remained in negative territory despite clawing back some losses this week. Total portfolio returns since inception now stands at -6.6%. This portfolio is still under-performing the MSCI World Return index, which is up 1.0% over the same period.

Chart: Chinese stocks slide further amid renewed global volatility

Followers of this column would notice that I added China Sunsine to the portfolio recently. I have bought the stock before and sold it at a good price and profit back in May. For those who are not familiar with the name, China Sunsine is listed in Singapore but its operations are based in China. The company is the world’s largest producer of rubber accelerators with an estimated 18% global market share and a 31% market share in China.

It supplies to over 1,000 customers, including to two-thirds of the world’s top 75 tyre makers, the likes of Bridgestone, Michelin and Goodyear. The company caters mostly to the domestic Chinese tyre demand – for new cars and replacement market.

The company benefited greatly from last year’s Chinese government crackdown on subpar rubber producing factories, which suppressed supply and resulted in sharply higher selling prices. China Sunsine upholds strict environmental protection standards, with high compliance on wastewater treatment and sulphur recycling standards.

As a result, profits jumped sharply higher in 1H2018 – net profit tripled from RMB131.7 million to RMB389.2 million – on the back of 37% y-y increase in selling prices and 12% growth in volume sales.

Inevitably, selling prices must normalise as some of the factories that were shut down resume production. And we are beginning to see this in 3Q2018. Selling prices have fallen by around 20%, on average, from their highs.

As such, earnings in 2H2018 will be lower than that in the first half of the year. So will earnings in 2019, assuming normalised prices for the full-year. I believe this is partly the reason its share price has adjusted downwards – from a high of S$1.63 in June. The stock now appears attractively valued again.

China Sunsine’s underlying business and fundamentals remain intact. An additional capacity of 20,000 tonnes (or 13% increase) has been completed and pending green light from the government. This should partially offset lower selling prices. Positively, the cost for aniline, a main raw material, has also come off by about 20% from the peak.

Meanwhile, demand for tyres should be fairly resilient in the replacement market (which typically accounts for more than two thirds of total demand) even if new car sales decline and more consumers subscribe to mobility as a service.

We estimate China Sunsine’s profits at some RMB560 million this year and RMB400 million in 2019. That means the stock is trading at 2019 forward PE of around 6 times. ROE was 22% in 2017 and 37% for the trailing 12 months. Additionally, the company has a minimum 20% dividend payout policy, which translates into estimated yields of 3-4% at current prices.

Stocks on the Bursa Malaysia traded broadly higher, recouping partial losses from the sharp selloff in the previous week. Nonetheless, investors remain cautious amid growing uncertainties and volatility in global markets. On the domestic front, the upcoming Budget 2019, to be unveiled on November 2, could provide some fresh leads.

Total portfolio value rose 1.4%, lifting overall returns since inception to 57.4%. This portfolio continues to outperform the benchmark index, FBM KLCI, which is down 5.0%, by a long way.



Performance Comparison Since Inception (%)
%-557.4-10-505101520253035404550556065
  • Tong's Value Investing Portfolio
  • FBM KLCI
SHARES HELDQUANTITYAVERAGE COSTCOST OF
INVESTMENT
CURRENT
PRICE
CURRENT
VALUE
GAIN /
(LOSS)
GAIN /
(LOSS)
SCGM BHD11,0661.73719,218.41.22013,500.5(5,717.9)(29.8%)
AJINOMOTO (M) BHD1,50011.81317,720.020.10030,150.012,430.070.1%
PANASONIC MANUFACTURING MSIA60026.30717,182.038.10022,860.05,678.033.0%
Y.S.P.SOUTHEAST ASIA HOLDING10,5002.41325,340.03.03031,815.06,475.025.6%
FORMOSA PROSONIC INDUSTRIES18,0001.54027,720.01.56028,080.0360.01.3%
HONG LEONG INDUSTRIES BHD2,0009.27618,551.010.66021,320.02,769.014.9%
WILLOWGLEN MSC BHD19,9000.5009,950.00.4909,751.0(199.0)(2.0%)
MALAYAN BANKING BHD3,00010.25030,750.09.60028,800.0(1,950.0)(6.3%)
MAH SING GROUP BHD19,0001.01019,190.00.99518,905.0(285.0)(1.5%)
ECO WORLD DEVELOPMENT GROUP BERHAD15,2001.23518,772.01.06016,112.0(2,660.0)(14.2%)
DIALOG GROUP BHD5,7003.47019,779.03.41019,437.0(342.0)(1.7%)
GENTING MALAYSIA BERHAD3,8005.07019,266.04.51017,138.0(2,128.0)(11.0%)
TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD1,80011.00019,800.011.52020,736.0936.04.7%
Total  263,238.4 278,604.515,366.15.8%
        
Shares bought       
No transaction.       
        
Total shares held  263,238.4 278,604.515,366.15.8%
        
Shares sold       
No transaction.       
        
Cash Balance    36,267.9  
Realised Profits / (Losses)    99,506.3  
        
Change since last update Oct 11, 2018       
Portfolio      1.4%
FBMKLCI      1.7%
        
        
Portfolio Returns Since Inception  200,000.00 314,872.4114,872.457.4%
Portfolio Returns (Annualised)      14.3%
        
Portfolio Beta      0.677
Risk Adjusted Returns Since Inception      84.8%
        
        
Performance ComparisonAt Portfolio StartCurrentChangeRelative Portfolio Outperformance
FBM KLCI1,829.71,738.0(5.0%)62.4%
FBM Emas12,700.412,031.2(5.3%)62.7%
Footnote: 
*Current price is as at October 18, 2018. 
*Portfolio started on Oct 10, 2014 with MYR200,000. 
*This is a personal portfolio for information purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or solicitation or expression of views to influence readers to buy/sell stocks.

STOCKS SOLD IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS (Currency: MYR)
SHARES SOLDDATE BOUGHTDATE SOLDQUANTITYAVERAGE 
COST
COST OF 
INVESTMENT
PRICE SOLDSALES 
PROCEEDS
GAIN /
(LOSS)
GAIN /
(LOSS)
CLASSIC SCENIC BHD26-Jan-1613-Jul-174,0001.4135,651.31.8157,260.01,608.828.5%
MIKRO MSC BERHAD01-Dec-1627-Jul-1742,0000.33113,920.00.54522,890.08,970.064.4%
CLASSIC SCENIC BHD01-Dec-1627-Jul-174,0001.4135,651.31.7907,160.01,508.826.7%
PANASONIC MANUFACTURING MSIA21-Jan-1627-Jul-1740026.12510,450.037.10014,840.04,390.042.0%
ELSOFT RESEARCH BHD30-Mar-1724-Aug-178,0001.84414,750.02.65021,200.06,450.043.7%
JOHORE TIN BERHAD - WA 12/1704-May-1724-Aug-1717,0000.65511,135.00.68011,560.0425.03.8%
FOCUS LUMBER BERHAD03-May-1730-Aug-176,0001.6609,960.01.5309,180.0(780.0)(7.8%)
WILLOWGLEN MSC BHD23-Nov-1630-Aug-177,0000.7685,377.01.43010,010.04,633.086.2%
WILLOWGLEN MSC BHD23-Nov-1628-Sep-177,0000.7705,377.01.1808,260.02,883.053.6%
LII HEN INDUSTRIES BHD14-Dec-1628-Sep-175,0002.82014,100.03.72018,600.04,500.031.9%
COMFORT GLOVES BERHAD28-Aug-1708-Dec-1725,0000.96024,000.00.93023,250.0(750.0)(3.1%)
JOHORE TIN BHD08-May-1708-Dec-179,0001.60014,400.01.18010,620.0(3,780.0)(26.3%)
THONG GUAN INDUSTRIES BHD12-Dec-1608-Dec-175,0004.24321,215.04.10020,500.0(715.0)(3.4%)
KERJAYA PROSPEK GROUP BERHAD12-Jan-1715-Mar-1811,0001.02511,280.01.54016,940.05,660.050.2%
KERJAYA PROSPEK GROUP BERHAD - WARRANTS B 2018/202308-Mar-1815-Mar-183,0000.0000.00.330990.0990.0-
LUXCHEM CORPORATION BHD30-Aug-1715-Mar-1816,5000.73212,072.50.72011,880.0(192.5)(1.6%)
WILLOWGLEN MSC BHD14-Dec-1722-Mar-1820,0001.01020,200.01.26025,200.05,000.024.8%
MUAR BAN LEE GROUP BERHAD26-Oct-1722-Mar-1813,5001.24016,740.01.17015,795.0(945.0)(5.6%)
CHOO BEE METAL INDUSTRIES BHD07-Sep-1716-May-188,0002.19017,520.02.44019,520.02,000.011.4%
CHOO BEE METAL INDUSTRIES BHD07-Sep-1721-May-188,0002.19017,520.02.30018,400.0880.05.0%
SUPERLON HOLDINGS BHD01-Dec-1721-May-186,0001.1757,050.01.5509,300.02,250.031.9%
OKA CORPORATION BHD14-Dec-1728-Jun-1812,0001.54118,488.01.27015,240.0(3,248.0)(17.6%)
SUPERLON HOLDINGS BHD01-Dec-1728-Jun-186,0001.1757,050.01.2107,260.0210.03.0%
WILLOWGLEN MSC BHD14-Dec-1728-Jun-181000.50050.00.54054.04.08.0%
PANTECH GROUP HOLDINGS BHD17-May-1802-Aug-1843,0000.58024,940.00.56024,080.0(860.0)(3.4%)
KERJAYA PROSPEK GROUP BERHAD10-Jan-1706-Sep-1811,0001.02011,225.01.40015,400.04,175.037.2%
LUXCHEM CORPORATION BHD25-Aug-1706-Sep-1816,5000.71711,825.00.65510,807.5(1,017.5)(8.6%)
HOCK SENG LEE BHD19-Apr-1806-Sep-1814,5001.52022,033.01.37019,865.0(2,168.0)(9.8%)
A Note to Readers

It is my pleasure to share with you my Value Investing Portfolio. However, I must emphasize that it is by no means a recommendation or a solicitation or expression of views to influence you to buy or sell any stocks. I am just sharing openly on what I am doing with my stock portfolio.

Further, I like to remind all investors that investing is not just about the profits or returns. You will inevitably suffer stock losses too. You need to understand your own investment objective, risk appetite and the amount of loss you can afford to bear. So, while many investors talk only about absolute returns, I am also sharing the computed risk-weighted returns of my portfolio.

Tong Kooi Ong

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/aa/tong/portfolio